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000
FXUS63 KBIS 030534
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

LATEST BOWMAN RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXPANDING AREA OF
REFLECTIVITY`S IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH MORE ISOLATED ECHOES FARTHER NORTH. THE HRRR
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT SCENARIO
WELL AND HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND NAM12. THE NAM12
SHOWS A LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS/750MB-650MB...INITIATING OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND SHIFTING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. VERTICAL MOTION/MAX OMEGA FIELD OCCURRING ATOP THIS LAYER
WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CLOUDS TO BETWEEN 7KFT AND 10KFT
OVERNIGHT...SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE
GROUND. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE
EXPANDED POPS OVERNIGHT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...RANGING BETWEEN
ISOLATED AND SCATTERED THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY. WILL LOOK MORE INTO THE
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES IN THE NEXT FORECAST.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

RADAR RETURNS SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE WEST. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
WHILE NOT MUCH WILL REACH THE GROUND SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT...RADAR RETURNS VIA BOWMAN RADAR APPEAR ROBUST ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN 06-12Z.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

RED FLAG WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

COLD FRONT NEARLY THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...SO HAVE SCALED
BACK ON EVENING PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES A BIT...ENDING ALL
POPS OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST BY 04Z. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET (~01Z)...SO WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE RED
FLAG WARNING AS SCHEDULED BY 02Z.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRE UP NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING OVER NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK SHORT
WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH PUSHING TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH TO THE EAST. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING
PER LATEST HIGH-RES IMAGERY WHICH HAS HAD A RATHER GOOD HANDLE ON
THE TIMING OF THE STORMS. THERE REMAINS A LOW SEVERE WIND/HAIL CONCERN
GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY LOW LAYERS...THOUGH WITH
WEAK FORCING AND MODEST INSTABILITY DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT ANY
RAINFALL LOOKS SPOTTY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A LARGE TROUGH /H5
LOW WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
LIFTS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE MUCH NEEDED RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THIS MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A VCSH WILL CONTINUE FOR KDIK/KBIS/KJMS UNTIL AROUND 15Z-8Z SUNDAY
AS AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. DESPITE THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN
VFR. AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...EXPECT A CLEARING SKY WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ON SUNDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED.

WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS/NH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 030534
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

LATEST BOWMAN RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXPANDING AREA OF
REFLECTIVITY`S IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH MORE ISOLATED ECHOES FARTHER NORTH. THE HRRR
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT SCENARIO
WELL AND HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND NAM12. THE NAM12
SHOWS A LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS/750MB-650MB...INITIATING OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND SHIFTING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. VERTICAL MOTION/MAX OMEGA FIELD OCCURRING ATOP THIS LAYER
WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CLOUDS TO BETWEEN 7KFT AND 10KFT
OVERNIGHT...SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE
GROUND. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE
EXPANDED POPS OVERNIGHT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...RANGING BETWEEN
ISOLATED AND SCATTERED THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY. WILL LOOK MORE INTO THE
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES IN THE NEXT FORECAST.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

RADAR RETURNS SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE WEST. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
WHILE NOT MUCH WILL REACH THE GROUND SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT...RADAR RETURNS VIA BOWMAN RADAR APPEAR ROBUST ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN 06-12Z.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

RED FLAG WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

COLD FRONT NEARLY THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...SO HAVE SCALED
BACK ON EVENING PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES A BIT...ENDING ALL
POPS OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST BY 04Z. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET (~01Z)...SO WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE RED
FLAG WARNING AS SCHEDULED BY 02Z.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRE UP NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING OVER NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK SHORT
WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH PUSHING TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH TO THE EAST. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING
PER LATEST HIGH-RES IMAGERY WHICH HAS HAD A RATHER GOOD HANDLE ON
THE TIMING OF THE STORMS. THERE REMAINS A LOW SEVERE WIND/HAIL CONCERN
GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY LOW LAYERS...THOUGH WITH
WEAK FORCING AND MODEST INSTABILITY DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT ANY
RAINFALL LOOKS SPOTTY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A LARGE TROUGH /H5
LOW WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
LIFTS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE MUCH NEEDED RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THIS MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A VCSH WILL CONTINUE FOR KDIK/KBIS/KJMS UNTIL AROUND 15Z-8Z SUNDAY
AS AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. DESPITE THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN
VFR. AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...EXPECT A CLEARING SKY WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ON SUNDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED.

WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS/NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 030534
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

LATEST BOWMAN RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXPANDING AREA OF
REFLECTIVITY`S IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH MORE ISOLATED ECHOES FARTHER NORTH. THE HRRR
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT SCENARIO
WELL AND HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND NAM12. THE NAM12
SHOWS A LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS/750MB-650MB...INITIATING OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND SHIFTING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. VERTICAL MOTION/MAX OMEGA FIELD OCCURRING ATOP THIS LAYER
WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CLOUDS TO BETWEEN 7KFT AND 10KFT
OVERNIGHT...SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE
GROUND. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE
EXPANDED POPS OVERNIGHT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...RANGING BETWEEN
ISOLATED AND SCATTERED THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY. WILL LOOK MORE INTO THE
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES IN THE NEXT FORECAST.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

RADAR RETURNS SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE WEST. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
WHILE NOT MUCH WILL REACH THE GROUND SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT...RADAR RETURNS VIA BOWMAN RADAR APPEAR ROBUST ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN 06-12Z.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

RED FLAG WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

COLD FRONT NEARLY THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...SO HAVE SCALED
BACK ON EVENING PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES A BIT...ENDING ALL
POPS OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST BY 04Z. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET (~01Z)...SO WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE RED
FLAG WARNING AS SCHEDULED BY 02Z.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRE UP NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING OVER NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK SHORT
WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH PUSHING TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH TO THE EAST. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING
PER LATEST HIGH-RES IMAGERY WHICH HAS HAD A RATHER GOOD HANDLE ON
THE TIMING OF THE STORMS. THERE REMAINS A LOW SEVERE WIND/HAIL CONCERN
GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY LOW LAYERS...THOUGH WITH
WEAK FORCING AND MODEST INSTABILITY DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT ANY
RAINFALL LOOKS SPOTTY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A LARGE TROUGH /H5
LOW WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
LIFTS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE MUCH NEEDED RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THIS MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A VCSH WILL CONTINUE FOR KDIK/KBIS/KJMS UNTIL AROUND 15Z-8Z SUNDAY
AS AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. DESPITE THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN
VFR. AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...EXPECT A CLEARING SKY WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ON SUNDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED.

WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS/NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 030534
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

LATEST BOWMAN RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXPANDING AREA OF
REFLECTIVITY`S IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH MORE ISOLATED ECHOES FARTHER NORTH. THE HRRR
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT SCENARIO
WELL AND HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND NAM12. THE NAM12
SHOWS A LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS/750MB-650MB...INITIATING OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND SHIFTING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. VERTICAL MOTION/MAX OMEGA FIELD OCCURRING ATOP THIS LAYER
WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CLOUDS TO BETWEEN 7KFT AND 10KFT
OVERNIGHT...SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE
GROUND. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE
EXPANDED POPS OVERNIGHT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...RANGING BETWEEN
ISOLATED AND SCATTERED THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY. WILL LOOK MORE INTO THE
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES IN THE NEXT FORECAST.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

RADAR RETURNS SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE WEST. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
WHILE NOT MUCH WILL REACH THE GROUND SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT...RADAR RETURNS VIA BOWMAN RADAR APPEAR ROBUST ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN 06-12Z.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

RED FLAG WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

COLD FRONT NEARLY THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...SO HAVE SCALED
BACK ON EVENING PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES A BIT...ENDING ALL
POPS OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST BY 04Z. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET (~01Z)...SO WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE RED
FLAG WARNING AS SCHEDULED BY 02Z.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRE UP NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING OVER NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK SHORT
WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH PUSHING TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH TO THE EAST. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING
PER LATEST HIGH-RES IMAGERY WHICH HAS HAD A RATHER GOOD HANDLE ON
THE TIMING OF THE STORMS. THERE REMAINS A LOW SEVERE WIND/HAIL CONCERN
GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY LOW LAYERS...THOUGH WITH
WEAK FORCING AND MODEST INSTABILITY DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT ANY
RAINFALL LOOKS SPOTTY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A LARGE TROUGH /H5
LOW WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
LIFTS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE MUCH NEEDED RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THIS MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A VCSH WILL CONTINUE FOR KDIK/KBIS/KJMS UNTIL AROUND 15Z-8Z SUNDAY
AS AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. DESPITE THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN
VFR. AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...EXPECT A CLEARING SKY WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ON SUNDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED.

WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS/NH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 030303
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1003 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

RADAR RETURNS SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE WEST. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
WHILE NOT MUCH WILL REACH THE GROUND SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT...RADAR RETURNS VIA BOWMAN RADAR APPEAR ROBUST ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN 06-12Z.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

RED FLAG WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

COLD FRONT NEARLY THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...SO HAVE SCALED
BACK ON EVENING PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES A BIT...ENDING ALL
POPS OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST BY 04Z. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET (~01Z)...SO WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE RED
FLAG WARNING AS SCHEDULED BY 02Z.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRE UP NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING OVER NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK SHORT
WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH PUSHING TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH TO THE EAST. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING
PER LATEST HIGH-RES IMAGERY WHICH HAS HAD A RATHER GOOD HANDLE ON
THE TIMING OF THE STORMS. THERE REMAINS A LOW SEVERE WIND/HAIL CONCERN
GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY LOW LAYERS...THOUGH WITH
WEAK FORCING AND MODEST INSTABILITY DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT ANY
RAINFALL LOOKS SPOTTY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A LARGE TROUGH /H5
LOW WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
LIFTS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE MUCH NEEDED RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THIS MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK FROM 10-15K FT
AGL THROUGH 12Z. CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ON SUNDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED.

WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...JJS/NH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 030303
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1003 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

RADAR RETURNS SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE WEST. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
WHILE NOT MUCH WILL REACH THE GROUND SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT...RADAR RETURNS VIA BOWMAN RADAR APPEAR ROBUST ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN 06-12Z.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

RED FLAG WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

COLD FRONT NEARLY THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...SO HAVE SCALED
BACK ON EVENING PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES A BIT...ENDING ALL
POPS OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST BY 04Z. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET (~01Z)...SO WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE RED
FLAG WARNING AS SCHEDULED BY 02Z.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRE UP NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING OVER NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK SHORT
WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH PUSHING TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH TO THE EAST. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING
PER LATEST HIGH-RES IMAGERY WHICH HAS HAD A RATHER GOOD HANDLE ON
THE TIMING OF THE STORMS. THERE REMAINS A LOW SEVERE WIND/HAIL CONCERN
GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY LOW LAYERS...THOUGH WITH
WEAK FORCING AND MODEST INSTABILITY DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT ANY
RAINFALL LOOKS SPOTTY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A LARGE TROUGH /H5
LOW WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
LIFTS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE MUCH NEEDED RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THIS MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK FROM 10-15K FT
AGL THROUGH 12Z. CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ON SUNDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED.

WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...JJS/NH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 030303
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1003 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

RADAR RETURNS SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE WEST. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
WHILE NOT MUCH WILL REACH THE GROUND SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT...RADAR RETURNS VIA BOWMAN RADAR APPEAR ROBUST ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN 06-12Z.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

RED FLAG WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

COLD FRONT NEARLY THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...SO HAVE SCALED
BACK ON EVENING PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES A BIT...ENDING ALL
POPS OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST BY 04Z. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET (~01Z)...SO WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE RED
FLAG WARNING AS SCHEDULED BY 02Z.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRE UP NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING OVER NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK SHORT
WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH PUSHING TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH TO THE EAST. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING
PER LATEST HIGH-RES IMAGERY WHICH HAS HAD A RATHER GOOD HANDLE ON
THE TIMING OF THE STORMS. THERE REMAINS A LOW SEVERE WIND/HAIL CONCERN
GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY LOW LAYERS...THOUGH WITH
WEAK FORCING AND MODEST INSTABILITY DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT ANY
RAINFALL LOOKS SPOTTY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A LARGE TROUGH /H5
LOW WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
LIFTS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE MUCH NEEDED RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THIS MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK FROM 10-15K FT
AGL THROUGH 12Z. CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ON SUNDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED.

WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...JJS/NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 030125
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

RED FLAG WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

COLD FRONT NEARLY THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...SO HAVE SCALED
BACK ON EVENING PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES A BIT...ENDING ALL
POPS OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST BY 04Z. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET (~01Z)...SO WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE RED
FLAG WARNING AS SCHEDULED BY 02Z.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRE UP NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING OVER NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK SHORT
WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH PUSHING TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH TO THE EAST. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING
PER LATEST HIGH-RES IMAGERY WHICH HAS HAD A RATHER GOOD HANDLE ON
THE TIMING OF THE STORMS. THERE REMAINS A LOW SEVERE WIND/HAIL CONCERN
GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY LOW LAYERS...THOUGH WITH
WEAK FORCING AND MODEST INSTABILITY DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT ANY
RAINFALL LOOKS SPOTTY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A LARGE TROUGH /H5
LOW WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
LIFTS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE MUCH NEEDED RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THIS MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK FROM 10-15K FT
AGL THROUGH 12Z. CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ON SUNDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED.

WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...JJS/NH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 030125
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

RED FLAG WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

COLD FRONT NEARLY THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...SO HAVE SCALED
BACK ON EVENING PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES A BIT...ENDING ALL
POPS OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST BY 04Z. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET (~01Z)...SO WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE RED
FLAG WARNING AS SCHEDULED BY 02Z.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRE UP NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING OVER NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK SHORT
WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH PUSHING TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH TO THE EAST. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING
PER LATEST HIGH-RES IMAGERY WHICH HAS HAD A RATHER GOOD HANDLE ON
THE TIMING OF THE STORMS. THERE REMAINS A LOW SEVERE WIND/HAIL CONCERN
GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY LOW LAYERS...THOUGH WITH
WEAK FORCING AND MODEST INSTABILITY DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT ANY
RAINFALL LOOKS SPOTTY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A LARGE TROUGH /H5
LOW WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
LIFTS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE MUCH NEEDED RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THIS MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK FROM 10-15K FT
AGL THROUGH 12Z. CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ON SUNDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED.

WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...JJS/NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 030125
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

RED FLAG WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

COLD FRONT NEARLY THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...SO HAVE SCALED
BACK ON EVENING PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES A BIT...ENDING ALL
POPS OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST BY 04Z. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET (~01Z)...SO WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE RED
FLAG WARNING AS SCHEDULED BY 02Z.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRE UP NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING OVER NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK SHORT
WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH PUSHING TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH TO THE EAST. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING
PER LATEST HIGH-RES IMAGERY WHICH HAS HAD A RATHER GOOD HANDLE ON
THE TIMING OF THE STORMS. THERE REMAINS A LOW SEVERE WIND/HAIL CONCERN
GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY LOW LAYERS...THOUGH WITH
WEAK FORCING AND MODEST INSTABILITY DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT ANY
RAINFALL LOOKS SPOTTY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A LARGE TROUGH /H5
LOW WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
LIFTS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE MUCH NEEDED RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THIS MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK FROM 10-15K FT
AGL THROUGH 12Z. CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ON SUNDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED.

WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...JJS/NH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 030125
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

RED FLAG WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

COLD FRONT NEARLY THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...SO HAVE SCALED
BACK ON EVENING PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES A BIT...ENDING ALL
POPS OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST BY 04Z. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET (~01Z)...SO WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE RED
FLAG WARNING AS SCHEDULED BY 02Z.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRE UP NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING OVER NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK SHORT
WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH PUSHING TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH TO THE EAST. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING
PER LATEST HIGH-RES IMAGERY WHICH HAS HAD A RATHER GOOD HANDLE ON
THE TIMING OF THE STORMS. THERE REMAINS A LOW SEVERE WIND/HAIL CONCERN
GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY LOW LAYERS...THOUGH WITH
WEAK FORCING AND MODEST INSTABILITY DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT ANY
RAINFALL LOOKS SPOTTY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A LARGE TROUGH /H5
LOW WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
LIFTS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE MUCH NEEDED RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THIS MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK FROM 10-15K FT
AGL THROUGH 12Z. CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ON SUNDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED.

WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...JJS/NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 022358
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

COLD FRONT NEARLY THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...SO HAVE SCALED
BACK ON EVENING PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES A BIT...ENDING ALL
POPS OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST BY 04Z. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET (~01Z)...SO WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE RED
FLAG WARNING AS SCHEDULED BY 02Z.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRE UP NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING OVER NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK SHORT
WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH PUSHING TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH TO THE EAST. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING
PER LATEST HIGH-RES IMAGERY WHICH HAS HAD A RATHER GOOD HANDLE ON
THE TIMING OF THE STORMS. THERE REMAINS A LOW SEVERE WIND/HAIL CONCERN
GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY LOW LAYERS...THOUGH WITH
WEAK FORCING AND MODEST INSTABILITY DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT ANY
RAINFALL LOOKS SPOTTY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A LARGE TROUGH /H5
LOW WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
LIFTS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE MUCH NEEDED RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THIS MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK FROM 10-15K FT
AGL THROUGH 12Z. CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

ON SUNDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED.

WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...JJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 022358
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

COLD FRONT NEARLY THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...SO HAVE SCALED
BACK ON EVENING PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES A BIT...ENDING ALL
POPS OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST BY 04Z. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET (~01Z)...SO WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE RED
FLAG WARNING AS SCHEDULED BY 02Z.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRE UP NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING OVER NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK SHORT
WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH PUSHING TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH TO THE EAST. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING
PER LATEST HIGH-RES IMAGERY WHICH HAS HAD A RATHER GOOD HANDLE ON
THE TIMING OF THE STORMS. THERE REMAINS A LOW SEVERE WIND/HAIL CONCERN
GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY LOW LAYERS...THOUGH WITH
WEAK FORCING AND MODEST INSTABILITY DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT ANY
RAINFALL LOOKS SPOTTY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A LARGE TROUGH /H5
LOW WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
LIFTS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE MUCH NEEDED RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THIS MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK FROM 10-15K FT
AGL THROUGH 12Z. CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

ON SUNDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED.

WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...JJS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 022004
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
304 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRE UP NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING OVER NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK SHORT
WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH PUSHING TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH TO THE EAST. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING
PER LATEST HIGH-RES IMAGERY WHICH HAS HAD A RATHER GOOD HANDLE ON
THE TIMING OF THE STORMS. THERE REMAINS A LOW SEVERE WIND/HAIL CONCERN
GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY LOW LAYERS...THOUGH WITH
WEAK FORCING AND MODEST INSTABILITY DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT ANY
RAINFALL LOOKS SPOTTY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A LARGE TROUGH /H5
LOW WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
LIFTS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE MUCH NEEDED RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THIS MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ISOLD -TSRA AND -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE KJMS TERMINAL. VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF ANY -TSRA OR -SHRA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

ON SUNDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED.

WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 022004
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
304 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRE UP NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING OVER NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK SHORT
WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH PUSHING TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH TO THE EAST. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING
PER LATEST HIGH-RES IMAGERY WHICH HAS HAD A RATHER GOOD HANDLE ON
THE TIMING OF THE STORMS. THERE REMAINS A LOW SEVERE WIND/HAIL CONCERN
GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY LOW LAYERS...THOUGH WITH
WEAK FORCING AND MODEST INSTABILITY DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT ANY
RAINFALL LOOKS SPOTTY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A LARGE TROUGH /H5
LOW WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
LIFTS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE MUCH NEEDED RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THIS MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ISOLD -TSRA AND -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE KJMS TERMINAL. VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF ANY -TSRA OR -SHRA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

ON SUNDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED.

WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 021736
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM RAPIDLY. MANY LOCATIONS
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAVE ALREADY HIT 80. FOR MID-DAY UPDATE
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A BIT OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE STATE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

COLD FRONT IS NOW JUST NUDGING ITS WAY INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON BEFORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
INITIATES OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT THIS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THIS SATURDAY MORNING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED UP BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE THE CATALYST FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
BEHAVIOR. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY SEEN ACROSS ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN EASTERN MONTANA. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INITIATE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE EXISTS FOR
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS/POSSIBLY SEVERE...TO INITIATE
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. INITIALLY...VIRGA/EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING OCCURRING UNDERNEATH THE HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL FAVOR
GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EVENTUALLY AS CLOUD BASES LOWER TO
AROUND 8KFT TO 10KFT...SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE SURFACE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS
FORECAST IN THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AS THE 850MB FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS
THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY WITH BROAD WESTERLIES ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FLOW BROUGHT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 25
MPH WILL AGAIN RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLING TO THE TEENS. EVEN THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE MIXING OUT AND
LOWERING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. MONDAY AS WELL WILL BE DRY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTHWEST HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS MUCH OF A FACTOR. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE AND GET INTERESTING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A MAJOR H500 TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THIS TROUGH ABSORBS AN UPPER LOW INTO THE GENERAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY WHICH THEN MOVES AND PIVOTS
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF PORTRAY A WET
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE FIRST REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OVER A MONTH AND,
FINGERS CROSSED, WILL GIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TO THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ISOLD -TSRA AND -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE KJMS TERMINAL. VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINTY OF ANY -TSRA OR -SHRA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 14 AND 20 PERCENT...AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR. IF A
FIRE SHOULD IGNITE...EXPECT RAPID SPREAD.

ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER TEENS WILL AGAIN BRING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 021736
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM RAPIDLY. MANY LOCATIONS
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAVE ALREADY HIT 80. FOR MID-DAY UPDATE
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A BIT OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE STATE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

COLD FRONT IS NOW JUST NUDGING ITS WAY INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON BEFORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
INITIATES OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT THIS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THIS SATURDAY MORNING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED UP BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE THE CATALYST FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
BEHAVIOR. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY SEEN ACROSS ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN EASTERN MONTANA. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INITIATE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE EXISTS FOR
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS/POSSIBLY SEVERE...TO INITIATE
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. INITIALLY...VIRGA/EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING OCCURRING UNDERNEATH THE HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL FAVOR
GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EVENTUALLY AS CLOUD BASES LOWER TO
AROUND 8KFT TO 10KFT...SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE SURFACE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS
FORECAST IN THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AS THE 850MB FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS
THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY WITH BROAD WESTERLIES ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FLOW BROUGHT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 25
MPH WILL AGAIN RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLING TO THE TEENS. EVEN THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE MIXING OUT AND
LOWERING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. MONDAY AS WELL WILL BE DRY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTHWEST HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS MUCH OF A FACTOR. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE AND GET INTERESTING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A MAJOR H500 TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THIS TROUGH ABSORBS AN UPPER LOW INTO THE GENERAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY WHICH THEN MOVES AND PIVOTS
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF PORTRAY A WET
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE FIRST REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OVER A MONTH AND,
FINGERS CROSSED, WILL GIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TO THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ISOLD -TSRA AND -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE KJMS TERMINAL. VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINTY OF ANY -TSRA OR -SHRA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 14 AND 20 PERCENT...AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR. IF A
FIRE SHOULD IGNITE...EXPECT RAPID SPREAD.

ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER TEENS WILL AGAIN BRING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 021415
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
915 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

COLD FRONT IS NOW JUST NUDGING ITS WAY INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON BEFORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
INITIATES OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT THIS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THIS SATURDAY MORNING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED UP BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE THE CATALYST FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
BEHAVIOR. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY SEEN ACROSS ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN EASTERN MONTANA. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INITIATE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE EXISTS FOR
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS/POSSIBLY SEVERE...TO INITIATE
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. INITIALLY...VIRGA/EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING OCCURRING UNDERNEATH THE HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL FAVOR
GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EVENTUALLY AS CLOUD BASES LOWER TO
AROUND 8KFT TO 10KFT...SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE SURFACE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS
FORECAST IN THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AS THE 850MB FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS
THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY WITH BROAD WESTERLIES ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FLOW BROUGHT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 25
MPH WILL AGAIN RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLING TO THE TEENS. EVEN THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE MIXING OUT AND
LOWERING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. MONDAY AS WELL WILL BE DRY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTHWEST HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS MUCH OF A FACTOR. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE AND GET INTERESTING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A MAJOR H500 TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THIS TROUGH ABSORBS AN UPPER LOW INTO THE GENERAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY WHICH THEN MOVES AND PIVOTS
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF PORTRAY A WET
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE FIRST REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OVER A MONTH AND,
FINGERS CROSSED, WILL GIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TO THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSE AN AVIATION HAZARD WITH STRONG WINDS/HAIL
FROM KBIS TO KJMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH OUTSIDE OF
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 14 AND 20 PERCENT...AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR. IF A
FIRE SHOULD IGNITE...EXPECT RAPID SPREAD.

ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER TEENS WILL AGAIN BRING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
031>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 021415
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
915 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

COLD FRONT IS NOW JUST NUDGING ITS WAY INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON BEFORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
INITIATES OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT THIS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THIS SATURDAY MORNING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED UP BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE THE CATALYST FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
BEHAVIOR. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY SEEN ACROSS ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN EASTERN MONTANA. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INITIATE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE EXISTS FOR
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS/POSSIBLY SEVERE...TO INITIATE
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. INITIALLY...VIRGA/EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING OCCURRING UNDERNEATH THE HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL FAVOR
GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EVENTUALLY AS CLOUD BASES LOWER TO
AROUND 8KFT TO 10KFT...SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE SURFACE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS
FORECAST IN THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AS THE 850MB FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS
THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY WITH BROAD WESTERLIES ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FLOW BROUGHT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 25
MPH WILL AGAIN RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLING TO THE TEENS. EVEN THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE MIXING OUT AND
LOWERING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. MONDAY AS WELL WILL BE DRY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTHWEST HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS MUCH OF A FACTOR. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE AND GET INTERESTING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A MAJOR H500 TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THIS TROUGH ABSORBS AN UPPER LOW INTO THE GENERAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY WHICH THEN MOVES AND PIVOTS
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF PORTRAY A WET
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE FIRST REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OVER A MONTH AND,
FINGERS CROSSED, WILL GIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TO THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSE AN AVIATION HAZARD WITH STRONG WINDS/HAIL
FROM KBIS TO KJMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH OUTSIDE OF
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 14 AND 20 PERCENT...AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR. IF A
FIRE SHOULD IGNITE...EXPECT RAPID SPREAD.

ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER TEENS WILL AGAIN BRING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
031>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 021415
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
915 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

COLD FRONT IS NOW JUST NUDGING ITS WAY INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON BEFORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
INITIATES OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT THIS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THIS SATURDAY MORNING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED UP BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE THE CATALYST FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
BEHAVIOR. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY SEEN ACROSS ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN EASTERN MONTANA. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INITIATE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE EXISTS FOR
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS/POSSIBLY SEVERE...TO INITIATE
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. INITIALLY...VIRGA/EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING OCCURRING UNDERNEATH THE HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL FAVOR
GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EVENTUALLY AS CLOUD BASES LOWER TO
AROUND 8KFT TO 10KFT...SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE SURFACE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS
FORECAST IN THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AS THE 850MB FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS
THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY WITH BROAD WESTERLIES ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FLOW BROUGHT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 25
MPH WILL AGAIN RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLING TO THE TEENS. EVEN THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE MIXING OUT AND
LOWERING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. MONDAY AS WELL WILL BE DRY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTHWEST HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS MUCH OF A FACTOR. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE AND GET INTERESTING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A MAJOR H500 TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THIS TROUGH ABSORBS AN UPPER LOW INTO THE GENERAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY WHICH THEN MOVES AND PIVOTS
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF PORTRAY A WET
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE FIRST REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OVER A MONTH AND,
FINGERS CROSSED, WILL GIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TO THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSE AN AVIATION HAZARD WITH STRONG WINDS/HAIL
FROM KBIS TO KJMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH OUTSIDE OF
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 14 AND 20 PERCENT...AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR. IF A
FIRE SHOULD IGNITE...EXPECT RAPID SPREAD.

ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER TEENS WILL AGAIN BRING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
031>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 021140
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THIS SATURDAY MORNING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED UP BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE THE CATALYST FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
BEHAVIOR. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY SEEN ACROSS ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN EASTERN MONTANA. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INITIATE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE EXISTS FOR
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS/POSSIBLY SEVERE...TO INITIATE
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. INITIALLY...VIRGA/EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING OCCURRING UNDERNEATH THE HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL FAVOR
GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EVENTUALLY AS CLOUD BASES LOWER TO
AROUND 8KFT TO 10KFT...SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE SURFACE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS
FORECAST IN THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AS THE 850MB FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS
THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY WITH BROAD WESTERLIES ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FLOW BROUGHT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 25
MPH WILL AGAIN RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLING TO THE TEENS. EVEN THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE MIXING OUT AND
LOWERING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. MONDAY AS WELL WILL BE DRY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTHWEST HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS MUCH OF A FACTOR. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE AND GET INTERESTING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A MAJOR H500 TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THIS TROUGH ABSORBS AN UPPER LOW INTO THE GENERAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY WHICH THEN MOVES AND PIVOTS
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF PORTRAY A WET
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE FIRST REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OVER A MONTH AND,
FINGERS CROSSED, WILL GIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TO THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSE AN AVIATION HAZARD WITH STRONG WINDS/HAIL
FROM KBIS TO KJMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH OUTSIDE OF
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 14 AND 20 PERCENT...AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR. IF A
FIRE SHOULD IGNITE...EXPECT RAPID SPREAD.

ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER TEENS WILL AGAIN BRING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
031>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 021140
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THIS SATURDAY MORNING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED UP BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE THE CATALYST FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
BEHAVIOR. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY SEEN ACROSS ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN EASTERN MONTANA. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INITIATE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE EXISTS FOR
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS/POSSIBLY SEVERE...TO INITIATE
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. INITIALLY...VIRGA/EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING OCCURRING UNDERNEATH THE HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL FAVOR
GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EVENTUALLY AS CLOUD BASES LOWER TO
AROUND 8KFT TO 10KFT...SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE SURFACE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS
FORECAST IN THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AS THE 850MB FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS
THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY WITH BROAD WESTERLIES ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FLOW BROUGHT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 25
MPH WILL AGAIN RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLING TO THE TEENS. EVEN THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE MIXING OUT AND
LOWERING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. MONDAY AS WELL WILL BE DRY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTHWEST HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS MUCH OF A FACTOR. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE AND GET INTERESTING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A MAJOR H500 TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THIS TROUGH ABSORBS AN UPPER LOW INTO THE GENERAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY WHICH THEN MOVES AND PIVOTS
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF PORTRAY A WET
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE FIRST REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OVER A MONTH AND,
FINGERS CROSSED, WILL GIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TO THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSE AN AVIATION HAZARD WITH STRONG WINDS/HAIL
FROM KBIS TO KJMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH OUTSIDE OF
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 14 AND 20 PERCENT...AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR. IF A
FIRE SHOULD IGNITE...EXPECT RAPID SPREAD.

ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER TEENS WILL AGAIN BRING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
031>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 021140
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THIS SATURDAY MORNING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED UP BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE THE CATALYST FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
BEHAVIOR. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY SEEN ACROSS ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN EASTERN MONTANA. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INITIATE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE EXISTS FOR
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS/POSSIBLY SEVERE...TO INITIATE
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. INITIALLY...VIRGA/EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING OCCURRING UNDERNEATH THE HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL FAVOR
GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EVENTUALLY AS CLOUD BASES LOWER TO
AROUND 8KFT TO 10KFT...SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE SURFACE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS
FORECAST IN THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AS THE 850MB FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS
THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY WITH BROAD WESTERLIES ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FLOW BROUGHT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 25
MPH WILL AGAIN RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLING TO THE TEENS. EVEN THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE MIXING OUT AND
LOWERING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. MONDAY AS WELL WILL BE DRY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTHWEST HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS MUCH OF A FACTOR. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE AND GET INTERESTING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A MAJOR H500 TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THIS TROUGH ABSORBS AN UPPER LOW INTO THE GENERAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY WHICH THEN MOVES AND PIVOTS
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF PORTRAY A WET
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE FIRST REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OVER A MONTH AND,
FINGERS CROSSED, WILL GIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TO THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSE AN AVIATION HAZARD WITH STRONG WINDS/HAIL
FROM KBIS TO KJMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH OUTSIDE OF
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 14 AND 20 PERCENT...AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR. IF A
FIRE SHOULD IGNITE...EXPECT RAPID SPREAD.

ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER TEENS WILL AGAIN BRING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
031>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 020855
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED UP BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE THE CATALYST FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
BEHAVIOR. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY SEEN ACROSS ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN EASTERN MONTANA. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INITIATE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE EXISTS FOR
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS/POSSIBLY SEVERE...TO INITIATE
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. INITIALLY...VIRGA/EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING OCCURRING UNDERNEATH THE HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL FAVOR
GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EVENTUALLY AS CLOUD BASES LOWER TO
AROUND 8KFT TO 10KFT...SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE SURFACE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS
FORECAST IN THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AS THE 850MB FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS
THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY WITH BROAD WESTERLIES ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FLOW BROUGHT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 25
MPH WILL AGAIN RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLING TO THE TEENS. EVEN THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE MIXING OUT AND
LOWERING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. MONDAY AS WELL WILL BE DRY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTHWEST HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS MUCH OF A FACTOR. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE AND GET INTERESTING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A MAJOR H500 TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THIS TROUGH ABSORBS AN UPPER LOW INTO THE GENERAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY WHICH THEN MOVES AND PIVOTS
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF PORTRAY A WET
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE FIRST REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OVER A MONTH AND,
FINGERS CROSSED, WILL GIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TO THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 18Z SATURDAY...THEN
TRANSLATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
A VCTS WILL BE MAINTAINED AT KMOT AND KJMS SATURDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF EVEN STRONGER WINDS MAY DEVELOP WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DEVELOPS OVER/NEAR THE AERODROME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 14 AND 20 PERCENT...AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR. IF A
FIRE SHOULD IGNITE...EXPECT RAPID SPREAD.

ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER TEENS WILL AGAIN BRING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
031>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 020855
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED UP BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE THE CATALYST FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
BEHAVIOR. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY SEEN ACROSS ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN EASTERN MONTANA. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INITIATE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE EXISTS FOR
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS/POSSIBLY SEVERE...TO INITIATE
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. INITIALLY...VIRGA/EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING OCCURRING UNDERNEATH THE HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL FAVOR
GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EVENTUALLY AS CLOUD BASES LOWER TO
AROUND 8KFT TO 10KFT...SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE SURFACE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS
FORECAST IN THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AS THE 850MB FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS
THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY WITH BROAD WESTERLIES ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FLOW BROUGHT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 25
MPH WILL AGAIN RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLING TO THE TEENS. EVEN THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE MIXING OUT AND
LOWERING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. MONDAY AS WELL WILL BE DRY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTHWEST HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS MUCH OF A FACTOR. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE AND GET INTERESTING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A MAJOR H500 TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THIS TROUGH ABSORBS AN UPPER LOW INTO THE GENERAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY WHICH THEN MOVES AND PIVOTS
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF PORTRAY A WET
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE FIRST REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OVER A MONTH AND,
FINGERS CROSSED, WILL GIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TO THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 18Z SATURDAY...THEN
TRANSLATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
A VCTS WILL BE MAINTAINED AT KMOT AND KJMS SATURDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF EVEN STRONGER WINDS MAY DEVELOP WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DEVELOPS OVER/NEAR THE AERODROME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 14 AND 20 PERCENT...AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR. IF A
FIRE SHOULD IGNITE...EXPECT RAPID SPREAD.

ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER TEENS WILL AGAIN BRING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
031>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 020855
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED UP BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE THE CATALYST FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
BEHAVIOR. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER.

A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY SEEN ACROSS ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IN SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN EASTERN MONTANA. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INITIATE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE EXISTS FOR
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS/POSSIBLY SEVERE...TO INITIATE
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. INITIALLY...VIRGA/EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING OCCURRING UNDERNEATH THE HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL FAVOR
GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EVENTUALLY AS CLOUD BASES LOWER TO
AROUND 8KFT TO 10KFT...SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE SURFACE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS
FORECAST IN THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AS THE 850MB FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS
THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY WITH BROAD WESTERLIES ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FLOW BROUGHT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 25
MPH WILL AGAIN RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLING TO THE TEENS. EVEN THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE MIXING OUT AND
LOWERING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. MONDAY AS WELL WILL BE DRY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTHWEST HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS MUCH OF A FACTOR. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE AND GET INTERESTING
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A MAJOR H500 TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THIS TROUGH ABSORBS AN UPPER LOW INTO THE GENERAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY WHICH THEN MOVES AND PIVOTS
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF PORTRAY A WET
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE FIRST REAL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OVER A MONTH AND,
FINGERS CROSSED, WILL GIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TO THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 18Z SATURDAY...THEN
TRANSLATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
A VCTS WILL BE MAINTAINED AT KMOT AND KJMS SATURDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF EVEN STRONGER WINDS MAY DEVELOP WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DEVELOPS OVER/NEAR THE AERODROME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 14 AND 20 PERCENT...AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR. IF A
FIRE SHOULD IGNITE...EXPECT RAPID SPREAD.

ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER TEENS WILL AGAIN BRING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
031>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 020459
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1159 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR AND BOWMAN RADAR SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL
RETURNS OVER MILES CITY. THE HRRR 1KM SLICE AND COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY PICKS UP ON THIS AREA AND TRIES TO DEVELOP AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH 10Z ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUD
BASES APPEAR AROUND 15KFT CURRENTLY...AND WITH THE FAIRLY QUICK
SPEED IN THE ECHOES AND MINIMAL AREAL COVERAGE...AT BEST A
SPRINKLE OR BRIEF WIND GUST MAY OCCUR. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
COOLING INTO THE MID 40S AT DICKINSON AND GLEN ULLIN...SO HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS DOWN A BIT QUICKER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALREADY
HAD THEM IN THE LOWER 40S AND WITH PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THIS
REMAINS ON TRACK. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER SATURDAY AND
WILL LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT THIS IN THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS TROUGH 00
UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
FLAT RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT IN REGION OF STRONG MIXING/STEEP LAPSE
RATES. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY IS NOTED...THOUGH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY LOW
LEVELS THOUGH THIS MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY A WEST COAST TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME PHASED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW
NEAR 160W IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE CUT OFF LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...AND THE
STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SUPPORT SOME
OF THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SEEN IN THE REGION FOR SOME
TIME.

AT THIS POINT...THERE IS NO INDICATION OF WHETHER STORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE...BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AS SUCH
DYNAMICALLY FORCED SYSTEMS ARE TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST
SOME SEVERE WEATHER DURING SPRING MONTHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12Z-15Z SATURDAY...THEN TRANSLATE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...21Z-00Z. EXPECTED A
WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST/NORTHWEST. A VCTS WILL BE
MENTIONED AT KMOT AND KJMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MANY PARTS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ON
SATURDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL START TO SWITCH TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF FURTHER HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED. DAILY CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL COME TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 020459
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1159 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR AND BOWMAN RADAR SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL
RETURNS OVER MILES CITY. THE HRRR 1KM SLICE AND COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY PICKS UP ON THIS AREA AND TRIES TO DEVELOP AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH 10Z ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUD
BASES APPEAR AROUND 15KFT CURRENTLY...AND WITH THE FAIRLY QUICK
SPEED IN THE ECHOES AND MINIMAL AREAL COVERAGE...AT BEST A
SPRINKLE OR BRIEF WIND GUST MAY OCCUR. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
COOLING INTO THE MID 40S AT DICKINSON AND GLEN ULLIN...SO HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS DOWN A BIT QUICKER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALREADY
HAD THEM IN THE LOWER 40S AND WITH PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THIS
REMAINS ON TRACK. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER SATURDAY AND
WILL LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT THIS IN THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS TROUGH 00
UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
FLAT RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT IN REGION OF STRONG MIXING/STEEP LAPSE
RATES. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY IS NOTED...THOUGH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY LOW
LEVELS THOUGH THIS MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY A WEST COAST TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME PHASED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW
NEAR 160W IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE CUT OFF LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...AND THE
STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SUPPORT SOME
OF THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SEEN IN THE REGION FOR SOME
TIME.

AT THIS POINT...THERE IS NO INDICATION OF WHETHER STORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE...BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AS SUCH
DYNAMICALLY FORCED SYSTEMS ARE TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST
SOME SEVERE WEATHER DURING SPRING MONTHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12Z-15Z SATURDAY...THEN TRANSLATE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...21Z-00Z. EXPECTED A
WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST/NORTHWEST. A VCTS WILL BE
MENTIONED AT KMOT AND KJMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MANY PARTS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ON
SATURDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL START TO SWITCH TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF FURTHER HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED. DAILY CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL COME TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 020459
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1159 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR AND BOWMAN RADAR SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL
RETURNS OVER MILES CITY. THE HRRR 1KM SLICE AND COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY PICKS UP ON THIS AREA AND TRIES TO DEVELOP AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH 10Z ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUD
BASES APPEAR AROUND 15KFT CURRENTLY...AND WITH THE FAIRLY QUICK
SPEED IN THE ECHOES AND MINIMAL AREAL COVERAGE...AT BEST A
SPRINKLE OR BRIEF WIND GUST MAY OCCUR. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
COOLING INTO THE MID 40S AT DICKINSON AND GLEN ULLIN...SO HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS DOWN A BIT QUICKER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALREADY
HAD THEM IN THE LOWER 40S AND WITH PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THIS
REMAINS ON TRACK. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER SATURDAY AND
WILL LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT THIS IN THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS TROUGH 00
UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
FLAT RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT IN REGION OF STRONG MIXING/STEEP LAPSE
RATES. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY IS NOTED...THOUGH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY LOW
LEVELS THOUGH THIS MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY A WEST COAST TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME PHASED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW
NEAR 160W IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE CUT OFF LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...AND THE
STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SUPPORT SOME
OF THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SEEN IN THE REGION FOR SOME
TIME.

AT THIS POINT...THERE IS NO INDICATION OF WHETHER STORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE...BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AS SUCH
DYNAMICALLY FORCED SYSTEMS ARE TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST
SOME SEVERE WEATHER DURING SPRING MONTHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12Z-15Z SATURDAY...THEN TRANSLATE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...21Z-00Z. EXPECTED A
WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST/NORTHWEST. A VCTS WILL BE
MENTIONED AT KMOT AND KJMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MANY PARTS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ON
SATURDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL START TO SWITCH TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF FURTHER HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED. DAILY CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL COME TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 020459
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1159 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR AND BOWMAN RADAR SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL
RETURNS OVER MILES CITY. THE HRRR 1KM SLICE AND COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY PICKS UP ON THIS AREA AND TRIES TO DEVELOP AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH 10Z ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUD
BASES APPEAR AROUND 15KFT CURRENTLY...AND WITH THE FAIRLY QUICK
SPEED IN THE ECHOES AND MINIMAL AREAL COVERAGE...AT BEST A
SPRINKLE OR BRIEF WIND GUST MAY OCCUR. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
COOLING INTO THE MID 40S AT DICKINSON AND GLEN ULLIN...SO HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS DOWN A BIT QUICKER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALREADY
HAD THEM IN THE LOWER 40S AND WITH PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THIS
REMAINS ON TRACK. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER SATURDAY AND
WILL LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT THIS IN THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS TROUGH 00
UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
FLAT RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT IN REGION OF STRONG MIXING/STEEP LAPSE
RATES. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY IS NOTED...THOUGH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY LOW
LEVELS THOUGH THIS MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY A WEST COAST TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME PHASED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW
NEAR 160W IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE CUT OFF LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...AND THE
STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SUPPORT SOME
OF THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SEEN IN THE REGION FOR SOME
TIME.

AT THIS POINT...THERE IS NO INDICATION OF WHETHER STORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE...BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AS SUCH
DYNAMICALLY FORCED SYSTEMS ARE TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST
SOME SEVERE WEATHER DURING SPRING MONTHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12Z-15Z SATURDAY...THEN TRANSLATE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...21Z-00Z. EXPECTED A
WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST/NORTHWEST. A VCTS WILL BE
MENTIONED AT KMOT AND KJMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MANY PARTS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ON
SATURDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL START TO SWITCH TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF FURTHER HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED. DAILY CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL COME TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 020227
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
927 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS TROUGH 00
UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
FLAT RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT IN REGION OF STRONG MIXING/STEEP LAPSE
RATES. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY IS NOTED...THOUGH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY LOW
LEVELS THOUGH THIS MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY A WEST COAST TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME PHASED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW
NEAR 160W IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE CUT OFF LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...AND THE
STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SUPPORT SOME
OF THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SEEN IN THE REGION FOR SOME
TIME.

AT THIS POINT...THERE IS NO INDICATION OF WHETHER STORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE...BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AS SUCH
DYNAMICALLY FORCED SYSTEMS ARE TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST
SOME SEVERE WEATHER DURING SPRING MONTHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
30KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KJMS...AND
POTENTIALLY KBIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MANY PARTS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ON
SATURDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL START TO SWITCH TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF FURTHER HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED. DAILY CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL COME TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-
051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 020227
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
927 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS TROUGH 00
UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
FLAT RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT IN REGION OF STRONG MIXING/STEEP LAPSE
RATES. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY IS NOTED...THOUGH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY LOW
LEVELS THOUGH THIS MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY A WEST COAST TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME PHASED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW
NEAR 160W IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE CUT OFF LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...AND THE
STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SUPPORT SOME
OF THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SEEN IN THE REGION FOR SOME
TIME.

AT THIS POINT...THERE IS NO INDICATION OF WHETHER STORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE...BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AS SUCH
DYNAMICALLY FORCED SYSTEMS ARE TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST
SOME SEVERE WEATHER DURING SPRING MONTHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
30KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KJMS...AND
POTENTIALLY KBIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MANY PARTS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ON
SATURDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL START TO SWITCH TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF FURTHER HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED. DAILY CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL COME TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-
051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 020227
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
927 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS TROUGH 00
UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
FLAT RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT IN REGION OF STRONG MIXING/STEEP LAPSE
RATES. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY IS NOTED...THOUGH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY LOW
LEVELS THOUGH THIS MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY A WEST COAST TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME PHASED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW
NEAR 160W IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE CUT OFF LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...AND THE
STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SUPPORT SOME
OF THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SEEN IN THE REGION FOR SOME
TIME.

AT THIS POINT...THERE IS NO INDICATION OF WHETHER STORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE...BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AS SUCH
DYNAMICALLY FORCED SYSTEMS ARE TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST
SOME SEVERE WEATHER DURING SPRING MONTHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
30KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KJMS...AND
POTENTIALLY KBIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MANY PARTS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ON
SATURDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL START TO SWITCH TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF FURTHER HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED. DAILY CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL COME TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-
051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 020028
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
728 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS TROUGH 00
UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
FLAT RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT IN REGION OF STRONG MIXING/STEEP LAPSE
RATES. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY IS NOTED...THOUGH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY LOW
LEVELS THOUGH THIS MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY A WEST COAST TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME PHASED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW
NEAR 160W IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE CUT OFF LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...AND THE
STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SUPPORT SOME
OF THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SEEN IN THE REGION FOR SOME
TIME.

AT THIS POINT...THERE IS NO INDICATION OF WHETHER STORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE...BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AS SUCH
DYNAMICALLY FORCED SYSTEMS ARE TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST
SOME SEVERE WEATHER DURING SPRING MONTHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
30KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KJMS...AND
POTENTIALLY KBIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MANY PARTS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ON
SATURDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL START TO SWITCH TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF FURTHER HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED. DAILY CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL COME TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-
051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 020028
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
728 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS TROUGH 00
UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
FLAT RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT IN REGION OF STRONG MIXING/STEEP LAPSE
RATES. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY IS NOTED...THOUGH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY LOW
LEVELS THOUGH THIS MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY A WEST COAST TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME PHASED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW
NEAR 160W IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE CUT OFF LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...AND THE
STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SUPPORT SOME
OF THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SEEN IN THE REGION FOR SOME
TIME.

AT THIS POINT...THERE IS NO INDICATION OF WHETHER STORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE...BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AS SUCH
DYNAMICALLY FORCED SYSTEMS ARE TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST
SOME SEVERE WEATHER DURING SPRING MONTHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
30KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KJMS...AND
POTENTIALLY KBIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MANY PARTS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ON
SATURDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL START TO SWITCH TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF FURTHER HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED. DAILY CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL COME TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-
051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 020028
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
728 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS TROUGH 00
UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
FLAT RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT IN REGION OF STRONG MIXING/STEEP LAPSE
RATES. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY IS NOTED...THOUGH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY LOW
LEVELS THOUGH THIS MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY A WEST COAST TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME PHASED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW
NEAR 160W IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE CUT OFF LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...AND THE
STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SUPPORT SOME
OF THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SEEN IN THE REGION FOR SOME
TIME.

AT THIS POINT...THERE IS NO INDICATION OF WHETHER STORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE...BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AS SUCH
DYNAMICALLY FORCED SYSTEMS ARE TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST
SOME SEVERE WEATHER DURING SPRING MONTHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
30KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KJMS...AND
POTENTIALLY KBIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MANY PARTS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ON
SATURDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL START TO SWITCH TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF FURTHER HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED. DAILY CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL COME TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-
051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 012052
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
352 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
FLAT RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT IN REGION OF STRONG MIXING/STEEP LAPSE
RATES. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY IS NOTED...THOUGH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY LOW
LEVELS THOUGH THIS MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY A WEST COAST TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME PHASED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW
NEAR 160W IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE CUT OFF LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...AND THE
STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SUPPORT SOME
OF THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SEEN IN THE REGION FOR SOME
TIME.

AT THIS POINT...THERE IS NO INDICATION OF WHETHER STORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE...BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AS SUCH
DYNAMICALLY FORCED SYSTEMS ARE TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST
SOME SEVERE WEATHER DURING SPRING MONTHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL SUBSIDE EARLY
THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE AREA
SATURDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MANY PARTS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ON
SATURDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL START TO SWITCH TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF FURTHER HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED. DAILY CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL COME TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031-032.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-
051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 012052
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
352 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
FLAT RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE FRONT IN REGION OF STRONG MIXING/STEEP LAPSE
RATES. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY IS NOTED...THOUGH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY LOW
LEVELS THOUGH THIS MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY A WEST COAST TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME PHASED WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC CUT OFF LOW
NEAR 160W IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. REMAINING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE CUT OFF LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...AND THE
STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SUPPORT SOME
OF THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SEEN IN THE REGION FOR SOME
TIME.

AT THIS POINT...THERE IS NO INDICATION OF WHETHER STORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE...BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AS SUCH
DYNAMICALLY FORCED SYSTEMS ARE TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST
SOME SEVERE WEATHER DURING SPRING MONTHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL SUBSIDE EARLY
THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE AREA
SATURDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MANY PARTS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ON
SATURDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL START TO SWITCH TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF FURTHER HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED. DAILY CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL COME TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031-032.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-
051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 011726
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH DRY CONDITIONS BRINGING CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT AS
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SO
HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE FORECAST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

AREAS OF FOG CONTINUES FROM OAKES THROUGH VALLEY CITY AND THE
WESTERN DEVILS LAKE BASIN. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO EASTERN
MONTANA. WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. JUST UPDATE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS AN UPGRADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY BEHIND IT.
FARTHER UPSTREAM IN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...HIGH CLOUDS WERE
NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH THE NEXT SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES SEEN PUSHING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH/MINOR PRESSURE FALLS PER LATEST MSAS/SURFACE
ASSIMILATION SYSTEM...WAS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RISING MOTION
AHEAD OF THIS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL JUST GRAZE NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY AS IT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEEPEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE SOUTH...AHEAD OF THE PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REMAIN DRY THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A BAND OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIFERY OF A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS EXTENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND WILL KEEP THE GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER GOING WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THIS BEGINS TO
CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LOW MOVES ON
SHORE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WITH AN EXTENSION THAT BRINGS A NICE
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CROSSING OUR FINGERS THAT THIS PATTERN THE MODELS PORTRAY HOLDS WILL
RESULT IN A WET PERIOD FOR THE REGION. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY POPS
WILL BE SCATTERED WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT MAY BE IN THE
FUTURE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S. AFTER SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL SUBSIDE EARLY
THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE AREA
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON IN
COMBINATION WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITIES BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT. WITH GREEN-UP IMPROVING...BUT STILL SLOWER THAN NORMAL...
GRASSLANDS/FUELS REMAIN DRY. THE END RESULT IS FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY FIRE THAT SHOULD IGNITE WILL SPREAD
RAPIDLY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 011726
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH DRY CONDITIONS BRINGING CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT AS
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SO
HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE FORECAST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

AREAS OF FOG CONTINUES FROM OAKES THROUGH VALLEY CITY AND THE
WESTERN DEVILS LAKE BASIN. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO EASTERN
MONTANA. WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. JUST UPDATE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS AN UPGRADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY BEHIND IT.
FARTHER UPSTREAM IN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...HIGH CLOUDS WERE
NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH THE NEXT SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES SEEN PUSHING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH/MINOR PRESSURE FALLS PER LATEST MSAS/SURFACE
ASSIMILATION SYSTEM...WAS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RISING MOTION
AHEAD OF THIS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL JUST GRAZE NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY AS IT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEEPEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE SOUTH...AHEAD OF THE PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REMAIN DRY THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A BAND OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIFERY OF A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS EXTENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND WILL KEEP THE GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER GOING WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THIS BEGINS TO
CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LOW MOVES ON
SHORE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WITH AN EXTENSION THAT BRINGS A NICE
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CROSSING OUR FINGERS THAT THIS PATTERN THE MODELS PORTRAY HOLDS WILL
RESULT IN A WET PERIOD FOR THE REGION. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY POPS
WILL BE SCATTERED WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT MAY BE IN THE
FUTURE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S. AFTER SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL SUBSIDE EARLY
THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE AREA
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON IN
COMBINATION WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITIES BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT. WITH GREEN-UP IMPROVING...BUT STILL SLOWER THAN NORMAL...
GRASSLANDS/FUELS REMAIN DRY. THE END RESULT IS FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY FIRE THAT SHOULD IGNITE WILL SPREAD
RAPIDLY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 011339
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
839 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SO
HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE FORECAST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

AREAS O FOG CONTINUES FROM OAKES THROUGH VALLEY CITY AND THE
WESTERN DEVILS LAKE BASIN. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO EASTERN
MONTANA. WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. JUST UPDATE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS AN UPGRADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY BEHIND IT.
FARTHER UPSTREAM IN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...HIGH CLOUDS WERE
NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH THE NEXT SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES SEEN PUSHING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH/MINOR PRESSURE FALLS PER LATEST MSAS/SURFACE
ASSIMILATION SYSTEM...WAS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RISING MOTION
AHEAD OF THIS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL JUST GRAZE NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY AS IT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEEPEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE SOUTH...AHEAD OF THE PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REMAIN DRY THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A BAND OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIFERY OF A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS EXTENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND WILL KEEP THE GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER GOING WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THIS BEGINS TO
CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LOW MOVES ON
SHORE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WITH AN EXTENSION THAT BRINGS A NICE
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CROSSING OUR FINGERS THAT THIS PATTERN THE MODELS PORTRAY HOLDS WILL
RESULT IN A WET PERIOD FOR THE REGION. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY POPS
WILL BE SCATTERED WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT MAY BE IN THE
FUTURE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S. AFTER SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25KT AT
KISN/KMOT/KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG VICINITY OF KJMS
FRIDAY MORNING TIL 14Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON IN
COMBINATION WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITIES BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT. WITH GREEN-UP IMPROVING...BUT STILL SLOWER THAN NORMAL...
GRASSLANDS/FUELS REMAIN DRY. THE END RESULT IS FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY FIRE THAT SHOULD IGNITE WILL SPREAD
RAPIDLY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-
031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 011339
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
839 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SO
HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE FORECAST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

AREAS O FOG CONTINUES FROM OAKES THROUGH VALLEY CITY AND THE
WESTERN DEVILS LAKE BASIN. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO EASTERN
MONTANA. WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. JUST UPDATE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS AN UPGRADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY BEHIND IT.
FARTHER UPSTREAM IN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...HIGH CLOUDS WERE
NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH THE NEXT SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES SEEN PUSHING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH/MINOR PRESSURE FALLS PER LATEST MSAS/SURFACE
ASSIMILATION SYSTEM...WAS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RISING MOTION
AHEAD OF THIS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL JUST GRAZE NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY AS IT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEEPEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE SOUTH...AHEAD OF THE PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REMAIN DRY THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A BAND OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIFERY OF A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS EXTENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND WILL KEEP THE GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER GOING WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THIS BEGINS TO
CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LOW MOVES ON
SHORE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WITH AN EXTENSION THAT BRINGS A NICE
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CROSSING OUR FINGERS THAT THIS PATTERN THE MODELS PORTRAY HOLDS WILL
RESULT IN A WET PERIOD FOR THE REGION. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY POPS
WILL BE SCATTERED WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT MAY BE IN THE
FUTURE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S. AFTER SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25KT AT
KISN/KMOT/KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG VICINITY OF KJMS
FRIDAY MORNING TIL 14Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON IN
COMBINATION WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITIES BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT. WITH GREEN-UP IMPROVING...BUT STILL SLOWER THAN NORMAL...
GRASSLANDS/FUELS REMAIN DRY. THE END RESULT IS FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY FIRE THAT SHOULD IGNITE WILL SPREAD
RAPIDLY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-
031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 011339
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
839 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SO
HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE FORECAST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

AREAS O FOG CONTINUES FROM OAKES THROUGH VALLEY CITY AND THE
WESTERN DEVILS LAKE BASIN. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO EASTERN
MONTANA. WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. JUST UPDATE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS AN UPGRADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY BEHIND IT.
FARTHER UPSTREAM IN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...HIGH CLOUDS WERE
NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH THE NEXT SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES SEEN PUSHING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH/MINOR PRESSURE FALLS PER LATEST MSAS/SURFACE
ASSIMILATION SYSTEM...WAS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RISING MOTION
AHEAD OF THIS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL JUST GRAZE NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY AS IT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEEPEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE SOUTH...AHEAD OF THE PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REMAIN DRY THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A BAND OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIFERY OF A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS EXTENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND WILL KEEP THE GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER GOING WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THIS BEGINS TO
CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LOW MOVES ON
SHORE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WITH AN EXTENSION THAT BRINGS A NICE
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CROSSING OUR FINGERS THAT THIS PATTERN THE MODELS PORTRAY HOLDS WILL
RESULT IN A WET PERIOD FOR THE REGION. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY POPS
WILL BE SCATTERED WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT MAY BE IN THE
FUTURE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S. AFTER SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25KT AT
KISN/KMOT/KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG VICINITY OF KJMS
FRIDAY MORNING TIL 14Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON IN
COMBINATION WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITIES BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT. WITH GREEN-UP IMPROVING...BUT STILL SLOWER THAN NORMAL...
GRASSLANDS/FUELS REMAIN DRY. THE END RESULT IS FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY FIRE THAT SHOULD IGNITE WILL SPREAD
RAPIDLY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-
031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 011134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

AREAS O FOG CONTINUES FROM OAKES THROUGH VALLEY CITY AND THE
WESTERN DEVILS LAKE BASIN. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO EASTERN
MONTANA. WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. JUST UPDATE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS AN UPGRADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY BEHIND IT.
FARTHER UPSTREAM IN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...HIGH CLOUDS WERE
NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH THE NEXT SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES SEEN PUSHING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH/MINOR PRESSURE FALLS PER LATEST MSAS/SURFACE
ASSIMILATION SYSTEM...WAS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RISING MOTION
AHEAD OF THIS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL JUST GRAZE NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY AS IT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEEPEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE SOUTH...AHEAD OF THE PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REMAIN DRY THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A BAND OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIFERY OF A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS EXTENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND WILL KEEP THE GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER GOING WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THIS BEGINS TO
CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LOW MOVES ON
SHORE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WITH AN EXTENSION THAT BRINGS A NICE
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CROSSING OUR FINGERS THAT THIS PATTERN THE MODELS PORTRAY HOLDS WILL
RESULT IN A WET PERIOD FOR THE REGION. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY POPS
WILL BE SCATTERED WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT MAY BE IN THE
FUTURE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S. AFTER SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25KT AT
KISN/KMOT/KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG VICINITY OF KJMS
FRIDAY MORNING TIL 14Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON IN
COMBINATION WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITIES BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT. WITH GREEN-UP IMPROVING...BUT STILL SLOWER THAN NORMAL...
GRASSLANDS/FUELS REMAIN DRY. THE END RESULT IS FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY FIRE THAT SHOULD IGNITE WILL SPREAD
RAPIDLY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-
031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 011134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

AREAS O FOG CONTINUES FROM OAKES THROUGH VALLEY CITY AND THE
WESTERN DEVILS LAKE BASIN. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO EASTERN
MONTANA. WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK. JUST UPDATE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS AN UPGRADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY BEHIND IT.
FARTHER UPSTREAM IN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...HIGH CLOUDS WERE
NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH THE NEXT SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES SEEN PUSHING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH/MINOR PRESSURE FALLS PER LATEST MSAS/SURFACE
ASSIMILATION SYSTEM...WAS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RISING MOTION
AHEAD OF THIS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL JUST GRAZE NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY AS IT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEEPEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE SOUTH...AHEAD OF THE PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REMAIN DRY THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A BAND OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIFERY OF A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS EXTENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND WILL KEEP THE GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER GOING WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THIS BEGINS TO
CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LOW MOVES ON
SHORE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WITH AN EXTENSION THAT BRINGS A NICE
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CROSSING OUR FINGERS THAT THIS PATTERN THE MODELS PORTRAY HOLDS WILL
RESULT IN A WET PERIOD FOR THE REGION. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY POPS
WILL BE SCATTERED WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT MAY BE IN THE
FUTURE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S. AFTER SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25KT AT
KISN/KMOT/KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG VICINITY OF KJMS
FRIDAY MORNING TIL 14Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON IN
COMBINATION WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITIES BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT. WITH GREEN-UP IMPROVING...BUT STILL SLOWER THAN NORMAL...
GRASSLANDS/FUELS REMAIN DRY. THE END RESULT IS FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY FIRE THAT SHOULD IGNITE WILL SPREAD
RAPIDLY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-
031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 010840
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS AN UPGRADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY BEHIND IT.
FARTHER UPSTREAM IN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...HIGH CLOUDS WERE
NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH THE NEXT SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES SEEN PUSHING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH/MINOR PRESSURE FALLS PER LATEST MSAS/SURFACE
ASSIMILATION SYSTEM...WAS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RISING MOTION
AHEAD OF THIS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL JUST GRAZE NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY AS IT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEEPEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE SOUTH...AHEAD OF THE PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REMAIN DRY THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A BAND OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIFERY OF A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS EXTENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND WILL KEEP THE GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER GOING WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THIS BEGINS TO
CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LOW MOVES ON
SHORE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WITH AN EXTENSION THAT BRINGS A NICE
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CROSSING OUR FINGERS THAT THIS PATTERN THE MODELS PORTRAY HOLDS WILL
RESULT IN A WET PERIOD FOR THE REGION. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY POPS
WILL BE SCATTERED WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT MAY BE IN THE
FUTURE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S. AFTER SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25KT AT
KISN/KMOT/KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON IN
COMBINATION WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITIES BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT. WITH GREEN-UP IMPROVING...BUT STILL SLOWER THAN NORMAL...
GRASSLANDS/FUELS REMAIN DRY. THE END RESULT IS FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY FIRE THAT SHOULD IGNITE WILL SPREAD
RAPIDLY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-
031-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 010840
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS AN UPGRADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY BEHIND IT.
FARTHER UPSTREAM IN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...HIGH CLOUDS WERE
NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH THE NEXT SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES SEEN PUSHING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH/MINOR PRESSURE FALLS PER LATEST MSAS/SURFACE
ASSIMILATION SYSTEM...WAS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RISING MOTION
AHEAD OF THIS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL JUST GRAZE NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY AS IT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEEPEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL PUSH
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE SOUTH...AHEAD OF THE PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REMAIN DRY THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A BAND OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIFERY OF A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS EXTENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND WILL KEEP THE GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER GOING WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THIS BEGINS TO
CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LOW MOVES ON
SHORE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WITH AN EXTENSION THAT BRINGS A NICE
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CROSSING OUR FINGERS THAT THIS PATTERN THE MODELS PORTRAY HOLDS WILL
RESULT IN A WET PERIOD FOR THE REGION. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY POPS
WILL BE SCATTERED WHILE A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT MAY BE IN THE
FUTURE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S. AFTER SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25KT AT
KISN/KMOT/KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON IN
COMBINATION WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITIES BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT. WITH GREEN-UP IMPROVING...BUT STILL SLOWER THAN NORMAL...
GRASSLANDS/FUELS REMAIN DRY. THE END RESULT IS FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY FIRE THAT SHOULD IGNITE WILL SPREAD
RAPIDLY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-
031-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 010514
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1214 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME...WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AND END ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 07Z.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SHOW FOG JUST EAST OF THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE LATEST HRRR LOW VISIBILITY FORECAST
JUST GRAZING ROLETTE AND POSSIBLY PIERCE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...SO
HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE CLEAR FORECAST WITH HIGH
CLOUDS APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT.
CONCERN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE FIRE WEATHER AND WILL BE
FOCUSING ON THIS FOR THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. FOLLOWING TRENDS
IN THE 00-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS...POST-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 06-07
UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME AT 00 UTC. AS
OF 00 UTC...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LAKE OAHE...WITH LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU TO
BISMARCK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS RESULTING IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
AROUND 25 PERCENT FROM SOUTHEAST EMMONS COUNTY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
IS MARGINAL OVER THE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WARNING BUT WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES
WILL RISE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHEN WINDS
DIMINISH AND HUMIDITIES RISE.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDER...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL
BE MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S WEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND CONTINUED MILD FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL..THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL 18Z FRIDAY TO
00Z SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE RAIN BY MID WEEK...HIGHLIGHTS THE
LONG TERM.

THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THEREAFTER...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED
AT THE SURFACE WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
CREATING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
MODELS HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25KT
AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 010514
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1214 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME...WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AND END ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 07Z.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SHOW FOG JUST EAST OF THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE LATEST HRRR LOW VISIBILITY FORECAST
JUST GRAZING ROLETTE AND POSSIBLY PIERCE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...SO
HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE CLEAR FORECAST WITH HIGH
CLOUDS APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT.
CONCERN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE FIRE WEATHER AND WILL BE
FOCUSING ON THIS FOR THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. FOLLOWING TRENDS
IN THE 00-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS...POST-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 06-07
UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME AT 00 UTC. AS
OF 00 UTC...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LAKE OAHE...WITH LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU TO
BISMARCK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS RESULTING IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
AROUND 25 PERCENT FROM SOUTHEAST EMMONS COUNTY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
IS MARGINAL OVER THE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WARNING BUT WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES
WILL RISE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHEN WINDS
DIMINISH AND HUMIDITIES RISE.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDER...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL
BE MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S WEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND CONTINUED MILD FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL..THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL 18Z FRIDAY TO
00Z SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE RAIN BY MID WEEK...HIGHLIGHTS THE
LONG TERM.

THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THEREAFTER...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED
AT THE SURFACE WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
CREATING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
MODELS HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25KT
AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 010514
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1214 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME...WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AND END ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 07Z.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SHOW FOG JUST EAST OF THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE LATEST HRRR LOW VISIBILITY FORECAST
JUST GRAZING ROLETTE AND POSSIBLY PIERCE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...SO
HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE CLEAR FORECAST WITH HIGH
CLOUDS APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT.
CONCERN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE FIRE WEATHER AND WILL BE
FOCUSING ON THIS FOR THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. FOLLOWING TRENDS
IN THE 00-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS...POST-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 06-07
UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME AT 00 UTC. AS
OF 00 UTC...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LAKE OAHE...WITH LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU TO
BISMARCK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS RESULTING IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
AROUND 25 PERCENT FROM SOUTHEAST EMMONS COUNTY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
IS MARGINAL OVER THE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WARNING BUT WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES
WILL RISE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHEN WINDS
DIMINISH AND HUMIDITIES RISE.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDER...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL
BE MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S WEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND CONTINUED MILD FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL..THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL 18Z FRIDAY TO
00Z SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE RAIN BY MID WEEK...HIGHLIGHTS THE
LONG TERM.

THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THEREAFTER...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED
AT THE SURFACE WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
CREATING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
MODELS HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25KT
AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 010257
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
957 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. FOLLOWING TRENDS
IN THE 00-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS...POST-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 06-07
UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME AT 00 UTC. AS
OF 00 UTC...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LAKE OAHE...WITH LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU TO
BISMARCK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS RESULTING IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
AROUND 25 PERCENT FROM SOUTHEAST EMMONS COUNTY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
IS MARGINAL OVER THE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WARNING BUT WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES
WILL RISE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHEN WINDS
DIMINISH AND HUMIDITIES RISE.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDER...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL
BE MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S WEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND CONTINUED MILD FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL..THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL 18Z FRIDAY TO
00Z SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE RAIN BY MID WEEK...HIGHLIGHTS THE
LONG TERM.

THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THEREAFTER...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED
AT THE SURFACE WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
CREATING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
MODELS HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

AS OF 0230 UTC...A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST WITH LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SOME FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE EAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL
LEAVE OUT OF THE KJMS TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD





000
FXUS63 KBIS 010257
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
957 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. FOLLOWING TRENDS
IN THE 00-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS...POST-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 06-07
UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME AT 00 UTC. AS
OF 00 UTC...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LAKE OAHE...WITH LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU TO
BISMARCK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS RESULTING IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
AROUND 25 PERCENT FROM SOUTHEAST EMMONS COUNTY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
IS MARGINAL OVER THE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WARNING BUT WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES
WILL RISE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHEN WINDS
DIMINISH AND HUMIDITIES RISE.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDER...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL
BE MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S WEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND CONTINUED MILD FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL..THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL 18Z FRIDAY TO
00Z SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE RAIN BY MID WEEK...HIGHLIGHTS THE
LONG TERM.

THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THEREAFTER...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED
AT THE SURFACE WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
CREATING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
MODELS HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

AS OF 0230 UTC...A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST WITH LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SOME FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE EAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL
LEAVE OUT OF THE KJMS TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD





000
FXUS63 KBIS 010257
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
957 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. FOLLOWING TRENDS
IN THE 00-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS...POST-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 06-07
UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME AT 00 UTC. AS
OF 00 UTC...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LAKE OAHE...WITH LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU TO
BISMARCK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS RESULTING IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
AROUND 25 PERCENT FROM SOUTHEAST EMMONS COUNTY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
IS MARGINAL OVER THE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WARNING BUT WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES
WILL RISE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHEN WINDS
DIMINISH AND HUMIDITIES RISE.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDER...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL
BE MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S WEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND CONTINUED MILD FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL..THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL 18Z FRIDAY TO
00Z SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE RAIN BY MID WEEK...HIGHLIGHTS THE
LONG TERM.

THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THEREAFTER...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED
AT THE SURFACE WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
CREATING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
MODELS HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

AS OF 0230 UTC...A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST WITH LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SOME FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE EAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL
LEAVE OUT OF THE KJMS TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 010008
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
708 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME AT 00 UTC. AS
OF 00 UTC...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LAKE OAHE...WITH LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU TO
BISMARCK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS RESULTING IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
AROUND 25 PERCENT FROM SOUTHEAST EMMONS COUNTY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
IS MARGINAL OVER THE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WARNING BUT WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES
WILL RISE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHEN WINDS
DIMINISH AND HUMIDITIES RISE.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDER...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL
BE MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S WEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND CONTINUED MILD FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL..THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL 18Z FRIDAY TO
00Z SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE RAIN BY MID WEEK...HIGHLIGHTS THE
LONG TERM.

THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THEREAFTER...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED
AT THE SURFACE WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
CREATING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
MODELS HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

AS OF 00 UTC A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT RAIN WAS LOCATED ALONG TO
APPROXIMATELY 80 MILES IN TRAIL OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD





000
FXUS63 KBIS 010008
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
708 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME AT 00 UTC. AS
OF 00 UTC...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LAKE OAHE...WITH LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU TO
BISMARCK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS RESULTING IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
AROUND 25 PERCENT FROM SOUTHEAST EMMONS COUNTY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
IS MARGINAL OVER THE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WARNING BUT WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES
WILL RISE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHEN WINDS
DIMINISH AND HUMIDITIES RISE.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDER...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL
BE MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S WEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND CONTINUED MILD FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL..THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL 18Z FRIDAY TO
00Z SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE RAIN BY MID WEEK...HIGHLIGHTS THE
LONG TERM.

THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THEREAFTER...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED
AT THE SURFACE WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
CREATING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
MODELS HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

AS OF 00 UTC A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT RAIN WAS LOCATED ALONG TO
APPROXIMATELY 80 MILES IN TRAIL OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD





000
FXUS63 KBIS 010008
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
708 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME AT 00 UTC. AS
OF 00 UTC...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LAKE OAHE...WITH LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU TO
BISMARCK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS RESULTING IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
AROUND 25 PERCENT FROM SOUTHEAST EMMONS COUNTY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
IS MARGINAL OVER THE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WARNING BUT WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES
WILL RISE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHEN WINDS
DIMINISH AND HUMIDITIES RISE.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDER...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL
BE MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S WEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND CONTINUED MILD FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL..THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL 18Z FRIDAY TO
00Z SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE RAIN BY MID WEEK...HIGHLIGHTS THE
LONG TERM.

THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THEREAFTER...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED
AT THE SURFACE WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
CREATING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
MODELS HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

AS OF 00 UTC A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT RAIN WAS LOCATED ALONG TO
APPROXIMATELY 80 MILES IN TRAIL OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 010008
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
708 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING ON TIME AT 00 UTC. AS
OF 00 UTC...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LAKE OAHE...WITH LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU TO
BISMARCK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS RESULTING IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
AROUND 25 PERCENT FROM SOUTHEAST EMMONS COUNTY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
IS MARGINAL OVER THE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WARNING BUT WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES
WILL RISE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHEN WINDS
DIMINISH AND HUMIDITIES RISE.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDER...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL
BE MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S WEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND CONTINUED MILD FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL..THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL 18Z FRIDAY TO
00Z SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE RAIN BY MID WEEK...HIGHLIGHTS THE
LONG TERM.

THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THEREAFTER...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED
AT THE SURFACE WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
CREATING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
MODELS HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

AS OF 00 UTC A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT RAIN WAS LOCATED ALONG TO
APPROXIMATELY 80 MILES IN TRAIL OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 302007
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
307 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU TO
BISMARCK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS RESULTING IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
AROUND 25 PERCENT FROM SOUTHEAST EMMONS COUNTY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
IS MARGINAL OVER THE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WARNING BUT WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES
WILL RISE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHEN WINDS
DIMINISH AND HUMIDITIES RISE.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDER...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL
BE MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S WEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND CONTINUED MILD FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL..THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL 18Z FRIDAY TO
00Z SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE RAIN BY MID WEEK...HIGHLIGHTS THE
LONG TERM.

THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THEREAFTER...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED
AT THE SURFACE WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
CREATING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
MODELS HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND IS PROGRESSING EAST. WINDS AT KISN...KDIK...AND KMOT HAVE
SHIFTED NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND KEPT WITH VCSH IN
THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031-032.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ023-025-036-
037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...MM




000
FXUS63 KBIS 302007
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
307 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU TO
BISMARCK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS IS RESULTING IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
AROUND 25 PERCENT FROM SOUTHEAST EMMONS COUNTY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
IS MARGINAL OVER THE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WARNING BUT WINDS
WILL INITIALLY BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES
WILL RISE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHEN WINDS
DIMINISH AND HUMIDITIES RISE.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDER...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL
BE MINIMAL.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S WEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND CONTINUED MILD FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL..THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL 18Z FRIDAY TO
00Z SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE RAIN BY MID WEEK...HIGHLIGHTS THE
LONG TERM.

THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THEREAFTER...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED
AT THE SURFACE WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
CREATING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
MODELS HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING/LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND IS PROGRESSING EAST. WINDS AT KISN...KDIK...AND KMOT HAVE
SHIFTED NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND KEPT WITH VCSH IN
THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031-032.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ023-025-036-
037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...MM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 301754
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SO FAR ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO BUMP UP TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT IN
THE EAST...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ALSO TWEAKED POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

RADAR IS SHOWING SOME REFLECTIVITIES OVER THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER
ONLY REPORTS OF A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION SO FAR IN WILLISTON. MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE POPS MORE QUICKLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE BORDER BUT LITTLE REACHNG THE
GROUND. KEPT THE 30 POPS FOR WESTERN NROTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. RED FLAG WARMING BEGINS THIS
AFTERNOON EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST ABOUT TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL FURTHER DRY OUT
GRASSES. WITH HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT AND WINDS AROUND
30 MPH...CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE JAMES
VALLEY INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY RAISE DEW POINTS...AND THEREFORE HUMIDITY...AND GREATLY
IMPROVE FIRE CONDITIONS.

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/GEM/SREF) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TODAY. THEY
DIVERGE A BIT WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE HIGH-RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT COMPLETELY THOUGH
THE AREA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE HIGH-RES MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS FEEL THAT IS A LITTLE UNDER DONE. THEREFORE LEFT A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN IN FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT WITH GOOD FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT AND AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
MONDAY ACROSS THE WEST. NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY IS THERE A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP
ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD COOLER
CANADIAN AIR WILL RETURN...BUT NOT TOO COOL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND IS PROGRESSING EAST. WINDS AT KISN...KDIK...AND KMOT HAVE
SHIFTED NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND KEPT WITH VCSH IN
THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ023-025-036-
037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 301754
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SO FAR ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO BUMP UP TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT IN
THE EAST...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ALSO TWEAKED POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

RADAR IS SHOWING SOME REFLECTIVITIES OVER THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER
ONLY REPORTS OF A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION SO FAR IN WILLISTON. MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE POPS MORE QUICKLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE BORDER BUT LITTLE REACHNG THE
GROUND. KEPT THE 30 POPS FOR WESTERN NROTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. RED FLAG WARMING BEGINS THIS
AFTERNOON EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST ABOUT TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL FURTHER DRY OUT
GRASSES. WITH HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT AND WINDS AROUND
30 MPH...CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE JAMES
VALLEY INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY RAISE DEW POINTS...AND THEREFORE HUMIDITY...AND GREATLY
IMPROVE FIRE CONDITIONS.

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/GEM/SREF) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TODAY. THEY
DIVERGE A BIT WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE HIGH-RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT COMPLETELY THOUGH
THE AREA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE HIGH-RES MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS FEEL THAT IS A LITTLE UNDER DONE. THEREFORE LEFT A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN IN FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT WITH GOOD FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT AND AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
MONDAY ACROSS THE WEST. NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY IS THERE A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP
ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD COOLER
CANADIAN AIR WILL RETURN...BUT NOT TOO COOL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND IS PROGRESSING EAST. WINDS AT KISN...KDIK...AND KMOT HAVE
SHIFTED NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND KEPT WITH VCSH IN
THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ023-025-036-
037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 301754
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SO FAR ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO BUMP UP TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT IN
THE EAST...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ALSO TWEAKED POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

RADAR IS SHOWING SOME REFLECTIVITIES OVER THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER
ONLY REPORTS OF A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION SO FAR IN WILLISTON. MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE POPS MORE QUICKLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE BORDER BUT LITTLE REACHNG THE
GROUND. KEPT THE 30 POPS FOR WESTERN NROTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. RED FLAG WARMING BEGINS THIS
AFTERNOON EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST ABOUT TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL FURTHER DRY OUT
GRASSES. WITH HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT AND WINDS AROUND
30 MPH...CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE JAMES
VALLEY INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY RAISE DEW POINTS...AND THEREFORE HUMIDITY...AND GREATLY
IMPROVE FIRE CONDITIONS.

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/GEM/SREF) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TODAY. THEY
DIVERGE A BIT WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE HIGH-RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT COMPLETELY THOUGH
THE AREA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE HIGH-RES MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS FEEL THAT IS A LITTLE UNDER DONE. THEREFORE LEFT A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN IN FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT WITH GOOD FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT AND AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
MONDAY ACROSS THE WEST. NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY IS THERE A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP
ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD COOLER
CANADIAN AIR WILL RETURN...BUT NOT TOO COOL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND IS PROGRESSING EAST. WINDS AT KISN...KDIK...AND KMOT HAVE
SHIFTED NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND KEPT WITH VCSH IN
THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ023-025-036-
037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301435
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
935 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

RADAR IS SHOWING SOME REFLECTIVITIES OVER THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER
ONLY REPORTS OF A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION SO FAR IN WILLISTON. MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE POPS MORE QUICKLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE BORDER BUT LITTLE REACHNG THE
GROUND. KEPT THE 30 POPS FOR WESTERN NROTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. RED FLAG WARMING BEGINS THIS
AFTERNOON EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST ABOUT TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL FURTHER DRY OUT
GRASSES. WITH HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT AND WINDS AROUND
30 MPH...CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE JAMES
VALLEY INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY RAISE DEW POINTS...AND THEREFORE HUMIDITY...AND GREATLY
IMPROVE FIRE CONDITIONS.

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/GEM/SREF) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TODAY. THEY
DIVERGE A BIT WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE HIGH-RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT COMPLETELY THOUGH
THE AREA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE HIGH-RES MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS FEEL THAT IS A LITTLE UNDER DONE. THEREFORE LEFT A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN IN FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT WITH GOOD FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT AND AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTANT MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
MONDAY ACROSS THE WEST. NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY IS THERE A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP
ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD COOLER
CANADIAN AIR WILL RETURN...BUT NOT TOO COOL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ023-025-036-
037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/AJ





000
FXUS63 KBIS 301145
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
645 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE BORDER BUT LITTLE REACHNG THE
GROUND. KEPT THE 30 POPS FOR WESTERN NROTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. RED FLAG WARMING BEGINS THIS
AFTERNOON EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST ABOUT TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL FURTHER DRY OUT
GRASSES. WITH HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT AND WINDS AROUND
30 MPH...CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE JAMES
VALLEY INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY RAISE DEW POINTS...AND THEREFORE HUMIDITY...AND GREATLY
IMPROVE FIRE CONDITIONS.

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/GEM/SREF) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TODAY. THEY
DIVERGE A BIT WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE HIGH-RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT COMPLETELY THOUGH
THE AREA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE HIGH-RES MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS FEEL THAT IS A LITTLE UNDER DONE. THEREFORE LEFT A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN IN FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT WITH GOOD FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT AND AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTANT MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
MONDAY ACROSS THE WEST. NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY IS THERE A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP
ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD COOLER
CANADIAN AIR WILL RETURN...BUT NOT TOO COOL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ023-025-036-037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/AJ





000
FXUS63 KBIS 301145
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
645 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE BORDER BUT LITTLE REACHNG THE
GROUND. KEPT THE 30 POPS FOR WESTERN NROTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. RED FLAG WARMING BEGINS THIS
AFTERNOON EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST ABOUT TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL FURTHER DRY OUT
GRASSES. WITH HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT AND WINDS AROUND
30 MPH...CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE JAMES
VALLEY INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY RAISE DEW POINTS...AND THEREFORE HUMIDITY...AND GREATLY
IMPROVE FIRE CONDITIONS.

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/GEM/SREF) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TODAY. THEY
DIVERGE A BIT WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE HIGH-RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT COMPLETELY THOUGH
THE AREA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE HIGH-RES MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS FEEL THAT IS A LITTLE UNDER DONE. THEREFORE LEFT A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN IN FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT WITH GOOD FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT AND AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTANT MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
MONDAY ACROSS THE WEST. NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY IS THERE A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP
ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD COOLER
CANADIAN AIR WILL RETURN...BUT NOT TOO COOL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ023-025-036-037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301145
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
645 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE BORDER BUT LITTLE REACHNG THE
GROUND. KEPT THE 30 POPS FOR WESTERN NROTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. RED FLAG WARMING BEGINS THIS
AFTERNOON EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST ABOUT TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL FURTHER DRY OUT
GRASSES. WITH HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT AND WINDS AROUND
30 MPH...CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE JAMES
VALLEY INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY RAISE DEW POINTS...AND THEREFORE HUMIDITY...AND GREATLY
IMPROVE FIRE CONDITIONS.

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/GEM/SREF) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TODAY. THEY
DIVERGE A BIT WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE HIGH-RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT COMPLETELY THOUGH
THE AREA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE HIGH-RES MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS FEEL THAT IS A LITTLE UNDER DONE. THEREFORE LEFT A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN IN FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT WITH GOOD FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT AND AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTANT MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
MONDAY ACROSS THE WEST. NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY IS THERE A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP
ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD COOLER
CANADIAN AIR WILL RETURN...BUT NOT TOO COOL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ023-025-036-037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 300907
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
407 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST ABOUT TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL FURTHER DRY OUT
GRASSES. WITH HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT AND WINDS AROUND
30 MPH...CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE JAMES
VALLEY INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY RAISE DEW POINTS...AND THEREFORE HUMIDITY...AND GREATLY
IMPROVE FIRE CONDITIONS.

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/GEM/SREF) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TODAY. THEY
DIVERGE A BIT WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE HIGH-RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT COMPLETELY THOUGH
THE AREA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE HIGH-RES MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS FEEL THAT IS A LITTLE UNDER DONE. THEREFORE LEFT A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN IN FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT WITH GOOD FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT AND AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTANT MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
MONDAY ACROSS THE WEST. NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY IS THERE A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP
ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD COOLER
CANADIAN AIR WILL RETURN...BUT NOT TOO COOL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ023-025-036-037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KBIS 300907
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
407 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST ABOUT TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL FURTHER DRY OUT
GRASSES. WITH HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT AND WINDS AROUND
30 MPH...CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE JAMES
VALLEY INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY RAISE DEW POINTS...AND THEREFORE HUMIDITY...AND GREATLY
IMPROVE FIRE CONDITIONS.

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/GEM/SREF) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TODAY. THEY
DIVERGE A BIT WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE HIGH-RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT COMPLETELY THOUGH
THE AREA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE HIGH-RES MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS FEEL THAT IS A LITTLE UNDER DONE. THEREFORE LEFT A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN IN FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT WITH GOOD FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT AND AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTANT MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
MONDAY ACROSS THE WEST. NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY IS THERE A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP
ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD COOLER
CANADIAN AIR WILL RETURN...BUT NOT TOO COOL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ023-025-036-037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 300907
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
407 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST ABOUT TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL FURTHER DRY OUT
GRASSES. WITH HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT AND WINDS AROUND
30 MPH...CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE JAMES
VALLEY INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY RAISE DEW POINTS...AND THEREFORE HUMIDITY...AND GREATLY
IMPROVE FIRE CONDITIONS.

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/GEM/SREF) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TODAY. THEY
DIVERGE A BIT WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE HIGH-RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT COMPLETELY THOUGH
THE AREA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE HIGH-RES MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS FEEL THAT IS A LITTLE UNDER DONE. THEREFORE LEFT A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN IN FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT WITH GOOD FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT AND AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTANT MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
MONDAY ACROSS THE WEST. NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY IS THERE A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP
ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD COOLER
CANADIAN AIR WILL RETURN...BUT NOT TOO COOL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ023-025-036-037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 300907
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
407 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST ABOUT TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL FURTHER DRY OUT
GRASSES. WITH HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT AND WINDS AROUND
30 MPH...CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE JAMES
VALLEY INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY RAISE DEW POINTS...AND THEREFORE HUMIDITY...AND GREATLY
IMPROVE FIRE CONDITIONS.

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/GEM/SREF) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TODAY. THEY
DIVERGE A BIT WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE HIGH-RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) FOLLOW CLOSELY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT COMPLETELY THOUGH
THE AREA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE HIGH-RES MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS FEEL THAT IS A LITTLE UNDER DONE. THEREFORE LEFT A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN IN FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT WITH GOOD FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT AND AFTERNOON HEATING...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTANT MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
MONDAY ACROSS THE WEST. NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY IS THERE A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP
ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD COOLER
CANADIAN AIR WILL RETURN...BUT NOT TOO COOL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ023-025-036-037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ





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