Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 260206
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
906 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ONLY MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST / GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE LATEST TRENDS. IT STILL APPEARS THE FALL IN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOW AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

BLENDED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO THE FORECAST...OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. WILL MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A MILD SUNDAY WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH FAR
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ON THE ORDER
OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL HELP TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NOW OCCLUDING WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...AND
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND GOOD
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED THE WARMER
EDGE OF THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH HAS
VERIFIED BEST THIS MONTH. THIS RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN MATERIALIZES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER MID WEEK AND ON AND A WARM UP LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LEAD EMBEDDED S/WV`S LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS FORCING AND MOISTURE
BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS ALONG
WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
CAA CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH OR BECOMING
ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. DOUBTFUL
AT THIS TIME WE WILL SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
TENTHS DEPENDING ON DURATION/INTENSITY. SFC DYNAMICS AND THE THERMAL
PROFILE WILL JUST NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT WOULD
CAUSE IMPACTS SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE HWO WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE.

NOTABLE DROP IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S/MID 50S. TUESDAY-THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL AND MORE OCTOBERISH WITH OUR FLOW ALOFT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK...INCLUDING HALLOWEEN...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. 12Z GFS REMAINS
COOLER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS FASTER AND
STILL BRINGS ANOTHER WARM FRONT THOUGH ON FRIDAY. ALL MODELS MILD
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...SAT/SUN...AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WILL ISSUE A VFR FORECAST AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS...THOUGH THERE
IS A SMALL CONCERN THAT CUMULUS COULD DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS THIS POSSIBILITY
MAINLY FOR KBIS AND KJMS. WILL CARRY A FEW SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY NOT BE MUCH OF A
CONCERN...HOWEVER WESTERLY BREEZES MAY BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CK








000
FXUS63 KBIS 260206
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
906 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ONLY MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST / GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE LATEST TRENDS. IT STILL APPEARS THE FALL IN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOW AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

BLENDED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO THE FORECAST...OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. WILL MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A MILD SUNDAY WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH FAR
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ON THE ORDER
OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL HELP TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NOW OCCLUDING WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...AND
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND GOOD
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED THE WARMER
EDGE OF THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH HAS
VERIFIED BEST THIS MONTH. THIS RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN MATERIALIZES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER MID WEEK AND ON AND A WARM UP LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LEAD EMBEDDED S/WV`S LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS FORCING AND MOISTURE
BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS ALONG
WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
CAA CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH OR BECOMING
ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. DOUBTFUL
AT THIS TIME WE WILL SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
TENTHS DEPENDING ON DURATION/INTENSITY. SFC DYNAMICS AND THE THERMAL
PROFILE WILL JUST NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT WOULD
CAUSE IMPACTS SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE HWO WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE.

NOTABLE DROP IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S/MID 50S. TUESDAY-THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL AND MORE OCTOBERISH WITH OUR FLOW ALOFT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK...INCLUDING HALLOWEEN...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. 12Z GFS REMAINS
COOLER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS FASTER AND
STILL BRINGS ANOTHER WARM FRONT THOUGH ON FRIDAY. ALL MODELS MILD
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...SAT/SUN...AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WILL ISSUE A VFR FORECAST AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS...THOUGH THERE
IS A SMALL CONCERN THAT CUMULUS COULD DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS THIS POSSIBILITY
MAINLY FOR KBIS AND KJMS. WILL CARRY A FEW SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY NOT BE MUCH OF A
CONCERN...HOWEVER WESTERLY BREEZES MAY BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CK








000
FXUS63 KBIS 252256
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
556 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

BLENDED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO THE FORECAST...OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. WILL MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A MILD SUNDAY WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH FAR
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ON THE ORDER
OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL HELP TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NOW OCCLUDING WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...AND
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND GOOD
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED THE WARMER
EDGE OF THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH HAS
VERIFIED BEST THIS MONTH. THIS RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN MATERIALIZES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER MID WEEK AND ON AND A WARM UP LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LEAD EMBEDDED S/WV`S LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS FORCING AND MOISTURE
BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS ALONG
WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
CAA CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH OR BECOMING
ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. DOUBTFUL
AT THIS TIME WE WILL SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
TENTHS DEPENDING ON DURATION/INTENSITY. SFC DYNAMICS AND THE THERMAL
PROFILE WILL JUST NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT WOULD
CAUSE IMPACTS SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE HWO WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE.

NOTABLE DROP IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S/MID 50S. TUESDAY-THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL AND MORE OCTOBERISH WITH OUR FLOW ALOFT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK...INCLUDING HALLOWEEN...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. 12Z GFS REMAINS
COOLER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS FASTER AND
STILL BRINGS ANOTHER WARM FRONT THOUGH ON FRIDAY. ALL MODELS MILD
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...SAT/SUN...AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WILL ISSUE A VFR FORECAST AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS...THOUGH THERE
IS A SMALL CONCERN THAT CUMULUS COULD DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS THIS POSSIBILITY
MAINLY FOR KBIS AND KJMS. WILL CARRY A FEW SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY NOT BE MUCH OF A
CONCERN...HOWEVER WESTERLY BREEZES MAY BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CK








000
FXUS63 KBIS 252001
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A MILD SUNDAY WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH FAR
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ON THE ORDER
OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL HELP TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NOW OCCLUDING WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...AND
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND GOOD
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED THE WARMER
EDGE OF THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH HAS
VERIFIED BEST THIS MONTH. THIS RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN MATERIALIZES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER MID WEEK AND ON AND A WARM UP LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LEAD EMBEDDED S/WV`S LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS FORCING AND MOISTURE
BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS ALONG
WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
CAA CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH OR BECOMING
ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. DOUBTFUL
AT THIS TIME WE WILL SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
TENTHS DEPENDING ON DURATION/INTENSITY. SFC DYNAMICS AND THE THERMAL
PROFILE WILL JUST NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT WOULD
CAUSE IMPACTS SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE HWO WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE.

NOTABLE DROP IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S/MID 50S. TUESDAY-THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL AND MORE OCTOBERISH WITH OUR FLOW ALOFT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK...INCLUDING HALLOWEEN...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. 12Z GFS REMAINS
COOLER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS FASTER AND
STILL BRINGS ANOTHER WARM FRONT THOUGH ON FRIDAY. ALL MODELS MILD
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...SAT/SUN...AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL MOVE INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD










000
FXUS63 KBIS 251800
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
100 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 17 UTC...THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY IS WELL ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 855 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

BLENDED FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY TO THE WARMER EDGE OF THE 06 UTC
GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST THIS MONTH. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANGE FOR UPDATE WAS
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA...WITH CLOUD
COVER DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES EAST.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A QUIET AND MILD SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO THE
DAKOTAS. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE AS A WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE STATE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND DECREASE WITH TIME TODAY. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...AND WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COOLING TREND WITH DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. ON SUNDAY SFC LOW SHIFTS THROUGH
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES. WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING ONE LAST DAY OF WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA AS UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. UPPER TROF WORKS TOWARDS THE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST...THOUGH COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING AN
OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE TO VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A POSSIBLE WARM UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 251800
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
100 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 17 UTC...THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY IS WELL ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 855 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

BLENDED FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY TO THE WARMER EDGE OF THE 06 UTC
GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST THIS MONTH. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANGE FOR UPDATE WAS
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA...WITH CLOUD
COVER DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES EAST.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A QUIET AND MILD SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO THE
DAKOTAS. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE AS A WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE STATE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND DECREASE WITH TIME TODAY. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...AND WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COOLING TREND WITH DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. ON SUNDAY SFC LOW SHIFTS THROUGH
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES. WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING ONE LAST DAY OF WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA AS UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. UPPER TROF WORKS TOWARDS THE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST...THOUGH COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING AN
OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE TO VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A POSSIBLE WARM UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 251355
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
855 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

BLENDED FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY TO THE WARMER EDGE OF THE 06 UTC
GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST THIS MONTH. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANGE FOR UPDATE WAS
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA...WITH CLOUD
COVER DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES EAST.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A QUIET AND MILD SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO THE
DAKOTAS. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE AS A WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE STATE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND DECREASE WITH TIME TODAY. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...AND WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COOLING TREND WITH DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. ON SUNDAY SFC LOW SHIFTS THROUGH
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES. WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING ONE LAST DAY OF WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA AS UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. UPPER TROF WORKS TOWARDS THE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST...THOUGH COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING AN
OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE TO VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A POSSIBLE WARM UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 251122
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANGE FOR UPDATE WAS
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA...WITH CLOUD
COVER DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES EAST.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A QUIET AND MILD SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO THE
DAKOTAS. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE AS A WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE STATE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND DECREASE WITH TIME TODAY. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...AND WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COOLING TREND WITH DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. ON SUNDAY SFC LOW SHIFTS THROUGH
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES. WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING ONE LAST DAY OF WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA AS UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. UPPER TROF WORKS TOWARDS THE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST...THOUGH COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING AN
OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE TO VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A POSSIBLE WARM UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS
WILL IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV









000
FXUS63 KBIS 251122
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANGE FOR UPDATE WAS
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA...WITH CLOUD
COVER DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES EAST.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A QUIET AND MILD SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO THE
DAKOTAS. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE AS A WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE STATE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND DECREASE WITH TIME TODAY. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...AND WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COOLING TREND WITH DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. ON SUNDAY SFC LOW SHIFTS THROUGH
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES. WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING ONE LAST DAY OF WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA AS UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. UPPER TROF WORKS TOWARDS THE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST...THOUGH COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING AN
OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE TO VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A POSSIBLE WARM UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS
WILL IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV









000
FXUS63 KBIS 250836
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
336 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A QUIET AND MILD SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO THE
DAKOTAS. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE AS A WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE STATE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND DECREASE WITH TIME TODAY. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...AND WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COOLING TREND WITH DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. ON SUNDAY SFC LOW SHIFTS THROUGH
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES. WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING ONE LAST DAY OF WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA AS UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. UPPER TROF WORKS TOWARDS THE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST...THOUGH COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING AN
OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE TO VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A POSSIBLE WARM UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE
WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE
REGION.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV










000
FXUS63 KBIS 250546
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1246 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS NORTHERN
MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS...MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG A MID-UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK. LATEST MODELS HAVE THIS AREA LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
SLOWLY OVERNIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS KEPT CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA A BIT LONGER
UNTIL CLOUDS DISSIPATE LATER ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST
ON TRACK WITH NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN
RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. THESE CLOUDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO EASTERN MONTANA. NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS GENERATING A SOLID MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. AS
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MERIDIONAL OVER EASTERN
MONTANA TONIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH AND BECOME NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS
THE JET STREAK WEAKENS...THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...ADJUSTED THE FIRST PERIOD SKY COVER
BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A QUIET SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE WINDY REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING
INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THUS...A CALMER BUT COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY. FOLLOWED THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST SO FAR THIS
MONTH....WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN MATERIALIZES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

MODELS PORTRAY A WARM FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. HAVE INCREASED DAYTIME HIGHS FOR SUNDAY SEVERAL DEGREES AS A
RESULT OF THE WAA. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL
ALLOW FOR LEAD EMBEDDED S/WV`S TO LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
MAINLY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE MID TO LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LIMITED
PREVENTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. WHILE
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...MIXING LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE MONDAY
NIGHT...CAA WILL COMMENCE AND WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. NOTABLE DROP IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S/MID
50S. TUESDAY-THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL BUT MORE
OCTOBERISH WITH OUR FLOW ALOFT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING HALLOWEEN...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES. 12Z GFS REMAINS SEASONAL/COOL...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
BRINGS ANOTHER WARM FRONT THOUGH RESULTING IN MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE
WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 250238
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN
RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. THESE CLOUDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO EASTERN MONTANA. NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS GENERATING A SOLID MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. AS
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MERIDIONAL OVER EASTERN
MONTANA TONIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH AND BECOME NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS
THE JET STREAK WEAKENS...THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...ADJUSTED THE FIRST PERIOD SKY COVER
BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A QUIET SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE WINDY REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING
INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THUS...A CALMER BUT COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY. FOLLOWED THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST SO FAR THIS
MONTH....WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN MATERIALIZES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

MODELS PORTRAY A WARM FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. HAVE INCREASED DAYTIME HIGHS FOR SUNDAY SEVERAL DEGREES AS A
RESULT OF THE WAA. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL
ALLOW FOR LEAD EMBEDDED S/WV`S TO LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
MAINLY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE MID TO LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LIMITED
PREVENTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. WHILE
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...MIXING LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE MONDAY
NIGHT...CAA WILL COMMENCE AND WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. NOTABLE DROP IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S/MID
50S. TUESDAY-THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL BUT MORE
OCTOBERISH WITH OUR FLOW ALOFT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING HALLOWEEN...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES. 12Z GFS REMAINS SEASONAL/COOL...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
BRINGS ANOTHER WARM FRONT THOUGH RESULTING IN MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 242308
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
608 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS GENERATING A SOLID MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. AS
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MERIDIONAL OVER EASTERN
MONTANA TONIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH AND BECOME NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS
THE JET STREAK WEAKENS...THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...ADJUSTED THE FIRST PERIOD SKY COVER
BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A QUIET SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE WINDY REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING
INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THUS...A CALMER BUT COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY. FOLLOWED THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST SO FAR THIS
MONTH....WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN MATERIALIZES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

MODELS PORTRAY A WARM FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. HAVE INCREASED DAYTIME HIGHS FOR SUNDAY SEVERAL DEGREES AS A
RESULT OF THE WAA. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL
ALLOW FOR LEAD EMBEDDED S/WV`S TO LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
MAINLY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE MID TO LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LIMITED
PREVENTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. WHILE
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...MIXING LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE MONDAY
NIGHT...CAA WILL COMMENCE AND WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. NOTABLE DROP IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S/MID
50S. TUESDAY-THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL BUT MORE
OCTOBERISH WITH OUR FLOW ALOFT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING HALLOWEEN...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES. 12Z GFS REMAINS SEASONAL/COOL...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
BRINGS ANOTHER WARM FRONT THOUGH RESULTING IN MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 241952
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A QUIET SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE WINDY REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING
INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THUS...A CALMER BUT COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY. FOLLOWED THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST SO FAR THIS
MONTH....WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN MATERIALIZES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

MODELS PORTRAY A WARM FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. HAVE INCREASED DAYTIME HIGHS FOR SUNDAY SEVERAL DEGREES AS A
RESULT OF THE WAA. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL
ALLOW FOR LEAD EMBEDDED S/WV`S TO LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
MAINLY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE MID TO LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LIMITED
PREVENTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. WHILE
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...MIXING LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE MONDAY
NIGHT...CAA WILL COMMENCE AND WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. NOTABLE DROP IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S/MID
50S. TUESDAY-THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL BUT MORE
OCTOBERISH WITH OUR FLOW ALOFT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING HALLOWEEN...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES. 12Z GFS REMAINS SEASONAL/COOL...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
BRINGS ANOTHER WARM FRONT THOUGH RESULTING IN MILDER TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE. WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS AT KISN/KMOT AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT
KBIS/KDIK/KJMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD










000
FXUS63 KBIS 241952
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A QUIET SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE WINDY REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING
INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THUS...A CALMER BUT COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY. FOLLOWED THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST SO FAR THIS
MONTH....WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN MATERIALIZES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

MODELS PORTRAY A WARM FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. HAVE INCREASED DAYTIME HIGHS FOR SUNDAY SEVERAL DEGREES AS A
RESULT OF THE WAA. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL
ALLOW FOR LEAD EMBEDDED S/WV`S TO LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
MAINLY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE MID TO LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LIMITED
PREVENTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. WHILE
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...MIXING LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE MONDAY
NIGHT...CAA WILL COMMENCE AND WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. NOTABLE DROP IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S/MID
50S. TUESDAY-THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL BUT MORE
OCTOBERISH WITH OUR FLOW ALOFT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING HALLOWEEN...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES. 12Z GFS REMAINS SEASONAL/COOL...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
BRINGS ANOTHER WARM FRONT THOUGH RESULTING IN MILDER TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE. WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS AT KISN/KMOT AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT
KBIS/KDIK/KJMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD










000
FXUS63 KBIS 241755
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1255 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AGAIN NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 17 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT  617 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY IS WINDS...AND ELEVATED OR NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WEATHER PORTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION FOR THOSE DETAILS.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND SUNRISE...AND SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
LATE MORNING/AROUND NOON. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...TO 25 TO NEAR 30
MPH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

GOOD MIXING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TODAY.

MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A RETURN
TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AS RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND BROAD TROUGH TO THE WEST
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE ROCKIES. COOL FRONT STARTS WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA LATE DAY WHICH COMBINED WITH INITIAL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OVER
NORTHERN/WESTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERE MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE FOR THIS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD OVER
THE AREA AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS BROAD TROUGH PUSHES
IN. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER...CLOSER TO
AVERAGE. SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE
MONDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY. RIDGE THEN
TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE. STRONG WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AT 30-35 KTS AT KISN/KMOT AND 25-30 KTS AT
KBIS/KDIK/KJMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE CRITICAL WEATHER ELEMENTS OF TEMPERATURE...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND EXPECTED WINDS REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

WINDS:
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE WINDS
COULD GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

TEMPS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY:
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE LOWER 70S FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. THE DRIEST AIR THIS AFTERNOON
(LOWEST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES) SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST...WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTHEAST...AS DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THUS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
25 PERCENT ACROSS ALL/MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FUELS:
LATEST HERBACEOUS FUEL MOISTURE FROM NFDRS MODEL INDICATES DRIEST
GRASSLANDS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH A BIT MORE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM FIRE MANAGERS INDICATED THAT THE GRASSLANDS
ARE DRY/CURED ENOUGH TO BURN READILY SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

SUMMARY:
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR AROUND 2-3
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED NORTH CENTRAL WHERE
HIGHER RESIDUAL GRASSLAND FUEL MOISTURE IS IN NFDRS MODEL...AND
WHERE THE FIRE DANGER HAS BEEN MAINLY IN THE LOW AND MEDIUM
CATEGORIES OF LATE.

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED
TODAY...BUT NOT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 241433
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT  617 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY IS WINDS...AND ELEVATED OR NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WEATHER PORTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION FOR THOSE DETAILS.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND SUNRISE...AND SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
LATE MORNING/AROUND NOON. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...TO 25 TO NEAR 30
MPH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

GOOD MIXING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TODAY.

MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A RETURN
TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AS RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND BROAD TROUGH TO THE WEST
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE ROCKIES. COOL FRONT STARTS WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA LATE DAY WHICH COMBINED WITH INITIAL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OVER
NORTHERN/WESTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERE MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE FOR THIS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD OVER
THE AREA AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS BROAD TROUGH PUSHES
IN. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER...CLOSER TO
AVERAGE. SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE
MONDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY. RIDGE THEN
TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 12 UTC TAF CYCLE. STRONG WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AT 30-35 KTS AT KISN/KMOT AND 25-30 KTS AT
KBIS/KDIK/KJMS ARE FORECAST LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE CRITICAL WEATHER ELEMENTS OF TEMPERATURE...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND EXPECTED WINDS REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

WINDS:
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE WINDS
COULD GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

TEMPS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY:
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE LOWER 70S FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. THE DRIEST AIR THIS AFTERNOON
(LOWEST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES) SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST...WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTHEAST...AS DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THUS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
25 PERCENT ACROSS ALL/MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FUELS:
LATEST HERBACEOUS FUEL MOISTURE FROM NFDRS MODEL INDICATES DRIEST
GRASSLANDS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH A BIT MORE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM FIRE MANAGERS INDICATED THAT THE GRASSLANDS
ARE DRY/CURED ENOUGH TO BURN READILY SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

SUMMARY:
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR AROUND 2-3
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED NORTH CENTRAL WHERE
HIGHER RESIDUAL GRASSLAND FUEL MOISTURE IS IN NFDRS MODEL...AND
WHERE THE FIRE DANGER HAS BEEN MAINLY IN THE LOW AND MEDIUM
CATEGORIES OF LATE.

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED
TODAY...BUT NOT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 241121
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
621 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT  617 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY IS WINDS...AND ELEVATED OR NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WEATHER PORTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION FOR THOSE DETAILS.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND SUNRISE...AND SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
LATE MORNING/AROUND NOON. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...TO 25 TO NEAR 30
MPH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

GOOD MIXING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TODAY.

MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A RETURN
TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AS RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND BROAD TROUGH TO THE WEST
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE ROCKIES. COOL FRONT STARTS WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA LATE DAY WHICH COMBINED WITH INITIAL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OVER
NORTHERN/WESTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERE MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE FOR THIS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD OVER
THE AREA AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS BROAD TROUGH PUSHES
IN. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER...CLOSER TO
AVERAGE. SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE
MONDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY. RIDGE THEN
TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS
WILL IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE CRITICAL WEATHER ELEMENTS OF TEMPERATURE...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND EXPECTED WINDS REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

WINDS:
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE WINDS
COULD GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

TEMPS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY:
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE LOWER 70S FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. THE DRIEST AIR THIS AFTERNOON
(LOWEST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES) SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST...WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTHEAST...AS DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THUS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
25 PERCENT ACROSS ALL/MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FUELS:
LATEST HERBACEOUS FUEL MOISTURE FROM NFDRS MODEL INDICATES DRIEST
GRASSLANDS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH A BIT MORE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM FIRE MANAGERS INDICATED THAT THE GRASSLANDS
ARE DRY/CURED ENOUGH TO BURN READILY SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

SUMMARY:
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR AROUND 2-3
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED NORTH CENTRAL WHERE
HIGHER RESIDUAL GRASSLAND FUEL MOISTURE IS IN NFDRS MODEL...AND
WHERE THE FIRE DANGER HAS BEEN MAINLY IN THE LOW AND MEDIUM
CATEGORIES OF LATE.

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED
TODAY...BUT NOT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 240833
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY IS WINDS...AND ELEVATED OR NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WEATHER PORTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION FOR THOSE DETAILS.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND SUNRISE...AND SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
LATE MORNING/AROUND NOON. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...TO 25 TO NEAR 30
MPH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

GOOD MIXING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TODAY.

MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A RETURN
TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AS RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND BROAD TROUGH TO THE WEST
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE ROCKIES. COOL FRONT STARTS WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA LATE DAY WHICH COMBINED WITH INITIAL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OVER
NORTHERN/WESTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERE MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE FOR THIS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD OVER
THE AREA AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS BROAD TROUGH PUSHES
IN. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER...CLOSER TO
AVERAGE. SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE
MONDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY. RIDGE THEN
TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS
WILL IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE CRITICAL WEATHER ELEMENTS OF TEMPERATURE...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND EXPECTED WINDS REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

WINDS:
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE WINDS
COULD GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

TEMPS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY:
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE LOWER 70S FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. THE DRIEST AIR THIS AFTERNOON
(LOWEST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES) SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST...WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTHEAST...AS DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THUS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
25 PERCENT ACROSS ALL/MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FUELS:
LATEST HERBACEOUS FUEL MOISTURE FROM NFDRS MODEL INDICATES DRIEST
GRASSLANDS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH A BIT MORE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM FIRE MANAGERS INDICATED THAT THE GRASSLANDS
ARE DRY/CURED ENOUGH TO BURN READILY SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

SUMMARY:
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR AROUND 2-3
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED NORTH CENTRAL WHERE
HIGHER RESIDUAL GRASSLAND FUEL MOISTURE IS IN NFDRS MODEL...AND
WHERE THE FIRE DANGER HAS BEEN MAINLY IN THE LOW AND MEDIUM
CATEGORIES OF LATE.

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED
TODAY...BUT NOT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...JV










000
FXUS63 KBIS 240533
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS. NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST...WITH SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON HOURLY OBSERVATIONS. STILL EXPECTING LOWS OF 35 TO 45.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
AN ONWARDS. BEFOREHAND...FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
LEAD WAVES FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST WITHIN
THE FLOW AND THROUGH OUR AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. OPTED TO INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY DAYTIME WEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL UNDER THIS PATTERN. QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL BE SATURATED
ENOUGH AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ANY
MOISTURE TO REACH THE SURFACE...HENCE THE SLIGHT CHANCE USAGE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE CAA WILL COMMENCE AND MAY SEE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING IF WE HAVE ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. HIGHS MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH MORE
OCTOBER-ISH...MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS HALLOWEEN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS
WILL IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 240243
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
943 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A 160+ KNOT
JET STREAK DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NOSING INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. AS A RESULT...INCREASED FIRST PERIOD SKY COVER
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY POINT TO GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. SHORT TERM
MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE BROAD H500
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS FEATURE WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. WITH MOISTURE BEING LIMITED...THE MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST WINDS. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED BE
IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY... THEY WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH.
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE SEE SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
AND MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY. WITH GOOD MIXING WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD
SEE HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST...TO THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
AN ONWARDS. BEFOREHAND...FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
LEAD WAVES FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST WITHIN
THE FLOW AND THROUGH OUR AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. OPTED TO INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY DAYTIME WEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL UNDER THIS PATTERN. QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL BE SATURATED
ENOUGH AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ANY
MOISTURE TO REACH THE SURFACE...HENCE THE SLIGHT CHANCE USAGE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE CAA WILL COMMENCE AND MAY SEE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING IF WE HAVE ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. HIGHS MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH MORE
OCTOBER-ISH...MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS HALLOWEEN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS
WILL IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE WINDS COULD GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS LATEST
WIND FORECAST IS JUST A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS HAVE
INDICATED.

IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD RANGE
FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ELEVATED.

REPORTS FROM FIRE MANAGERS INDICATED THAT THE GRASSLANDS ARE
DRY/CURED ENOUGH TO BURN READILY SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE LATEST WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 240243
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
943 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A 160+ KNOT
JET STREAK DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NOSING INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. AS A RESULT...INCREASED FIRST PERIOD SKY COVER
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY POINT TO GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. SHORT TERM
MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE BROAD H500
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS FEATURE WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. WITH MOISTURE BEING LIMITED...THE MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST WINDS. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED BE
IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY... THEY WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH.
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE SEE SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
AND MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY. WITH GOOD MIXING WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD
SEE HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST...TO THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
AN ONWARDS. BEFOREHAND...FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
LEAD WAVES FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST WITHIN
THE FLOW AND THROUGH OUR AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. OPTED TO INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY DAYTIME WEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL UNDER THIS PATTERN. QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL BE SATURATED
ENOUGH AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ANY
MOISTURE TO REACH THE SURFACE...HENCE THE SLIGHT CHANCE USAGE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE CAA WILL COMMENCE AND MAY SEE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING IF WE HAVE ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. HIGHS MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH MORE
OCTOBER-ISH...MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS HALLOWEEN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS
WILL IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE WINDS COULD GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS LATEST
WIND FORECAST IS JUST A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS HAVE
INDICATED.

IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD RANGE
FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ELEVATED.

REPORTS FROM FIRE MANAGERS INDICATED THAT THE GRASSLANDS ARE
DRY/CURED ENOUGH TO BURN READILY SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE LATEST WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 232310
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
610 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A 160+ KNOT
JET STREAK DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NOSING INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. AS A RESULT...INCREASED FIRST PERIOD SKY COVER
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY POINT TO GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. SHORT TERM
MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE BROAD H500
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS FEATURE WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. WITH MOISTURE BEING LIMITED...THE MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST WINDS. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED BE
IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY... THEY WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH.
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE SEE SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
AND MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY. WITH GOOD MIXING WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD
SEE HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST...TO THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
AN ONWARDS. BEFOREHAND...FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
LEAD WAVES FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST WITHIN
THE FLOW AND THROUGH OUR AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. OPTED TO INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY DAYTIME WEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL UNDER THIS PATTERN. QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL BE SATURATED
ENOUGH AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ANY
MOISTURE TO REACH THE SURFACE...HENCE THE SLIGHT CHANCE USAGE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE CAA WILL COMMENCE AND MAY SEE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING IF WE HAVE ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. HIGHS MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH MORE
OCTOBER-ISH...MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS HALLOWEEN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS
WILL IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE WINDS COULD GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS LATEST
WIND FORECAST IS JUST A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS HAVE
INDICATED.

IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD RANGE
FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ELEVATED.

REPORTS FROM FIRE MANAGERS INDICATED THAT THE GRASSLANDS ARE
DRY/CURED ENOUGH TO BURN READILY SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE LATEST WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 231947
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
247 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY POINT TO GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. SHORT TERM
MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE BROAD H500
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS FEATURE WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. WITH MOISTURE BEING LIMITED...THE MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST WINDS. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED BE
IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY... THEY WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH.
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE SEE SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
AND MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY. WITH GOOD MIXING WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD
SEE HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST...TO THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
AN ONWARDS. BEFOREHAND...FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
LEAD WAVES FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST WITHIN
THE FLOW AND THROUGH OUR AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. OPTED TO INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY DAYTIME WEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL UNDER THIS PATTERN. QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL BE SATURATED
ENOUGH AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ANY
MOISTURE TO REACH THE SURFACE...HENCE THE SLIGHT CHANCE USAGE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE CAA WILL COMMENCE AND MAY SEE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING IF WE HAVE ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. HIGHS MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH MORE
OCTOBERISH...MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS HALLOWEEN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO EXPECT A DRY FROPA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS WILL
IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS. OTHERWISE VFR.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE WINDS COULD GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS LATEST
WIND FORECAST IS JUST A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS HAVE
INDICATED.

IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD RANGE
FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ELEVATED.

REPORTS FROM FIRE MANAGERS INDICATED THAT THE GRASSLANDS ARE
DRY/CURED ENOUGH TO BURN READILY SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE LATEST WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...WAA










000
FXUS63 KBIS 231947
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
247 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY POINT TO GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. SHORT TERM
MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE BROAD H500
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS FEATURE WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. WITH MOISTURE BEING LIMITED...THE MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST WINDS. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED BE
IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY... THEY WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH.
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE SEE SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
AND MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY. WITH GOOD MIXING WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD
SEE HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST...TO THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
AN ONWARDS. BEFOREHAND...FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
LEAD WAVES FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST WITHIN
THE FLOW AND THROUGH OUR AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. OPTED TO INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY DAYTIME WEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL UNDER THIS PATTERN. QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL BE SATURATED
ENOUGH AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ANY
MOISTURE TO REACH THE SURFACE...HENCE THE SLIGHT CHANCE USAGE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE CAA WILL COMMENCE AND MAY SEE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING IF WE HAVE ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. HIGHS MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH MORE
OCTOBERISH...MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS HALLOWEEN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO EXPECT A DRY FROPA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS WILL
IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS. OTHERWISE VFR.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE WINDS COULD GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS LATEST
WIND FORECAST IS JUST A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS HAVE
INDICATED.

IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD RANGE
FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ELEVATED.

REPORTS FROM FIRE MANAGERS INDICATED THAT THE GRASSLANDS ARE
DRY/CURED ENOUGH TO BURN READILY SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE LATEST WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...WAA










000
FXUS63 KBIS 231730
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN ISSUE THIS UPDATE IS SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST. WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER SOME MORE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WILL SPREAD SOME HIGH
THIN CLOUDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SO ADDED SOME CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES. ONLY CHANGE
TO FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO REMOVE ALL CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TOWARDS CURRENT CONDITIONS. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA
WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE ALBERTA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND MERGE WITH THE SMALLER MANITOBA
SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP A ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
STAYING NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS IN CANADA WILL KEEP A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOOKING AT
HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...THERE SHOULD BE
GOOD VIEWING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ON FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE
COOLER AIR WILL BE LATER TO ARRIVE. WITH THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE WINDS...MAINLY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
TIGHTEST. STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN WITH AMPLE COLD AIR
ADVECTION. FOR NOW HAVE HELD WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.

UPPER RIDGE PASSING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND MILD
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TROF THEN WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS TO START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE REPLACED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT FROM MONTANA LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
BUT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST IMPACTED WILL BE KMOT FOR
WINDS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 231443
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
943 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WILL SPREAD SOME HIGH
THIN CLOUDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SO ADDED SOME CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES. ONLY CHANGE
TO FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO REMOVE ALL CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TOWARDS CURRENT CONDITIONS. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA
WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE ALBERTA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND MERGE WITH THE SMALLER MANITOBA
SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP A ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
STAYING NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS IN CANADA WILL KEEP A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOOKING AT
HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...THERE SHOULD BE
GOOD VIEWING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ON FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE
COOLER AIR WILL BE LATER TO ARRIVE. WITH THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE WINDS...MAINLY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
TIGHTEST. STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN WITH AMPLE COLD AIR
ADVECTION. FOR NOW HAVE HELD WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.

UPPER RIDGE PASSING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND MILD
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TROF THEN WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS TO START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 231443
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
943 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WILL SPREAD SOME HIGH
THIN CLOUDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SO ADDED SOME CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES. ONLY CHANGE
TO FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO REMOVE ALL CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TOWARDS CURRENT CONDITIONS. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA
WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE ALBERTA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND MERGE WITH THE SMALLER MANITOBA
SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP A ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
STAYING NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS IN CANADA WILL KEEP A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOOKING AT
HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...THERE SHOULD BE
GOOD VIEWING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ON FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE
COOLER AIR WILL BE LATER TO ARRIVE. WITH THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE WINDS...MAINLY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
TIGHTEST. STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN WITH AMPLE COLD AIR
ADVECTION. FOR NOW HAVE HELD WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.

UPPER RIDGE PASSING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND MILD
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TROF THEN WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS TO START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 231109
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
609 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES. ONLY CHANGE
TO FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO REMOVE ALL CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TOWARDS CURRENT CONDITIONS. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA
WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE ALBERTA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND MERGE WITH THE SMALLER MANITOBA
SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP A ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
STAYING NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS IN CANADA WILL KEEP A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOOKING AT
HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...THERE SHOULD BE
GOOD VIEWING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ON FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE
COOLER AIR WILL BE LATER TO ARRIVE. WITH THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE WINDS...MAINLY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
TIGHTEST. STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN WITH AMPLE COLD AIR
ADVECTION. FOR NOW HAVE HELD WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.

UPPER RIDGE PASSING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND MILD
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TROF THEN WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS TO START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 00Z. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 00Z AND MOVE/EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 230843
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
343 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA
WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE ALBERTA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND MERGE WITH THE SMALLER MANITOBA
SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP A ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
STAYING NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS IN CANADA WILL KEEP A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOOKING AT
HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...THERE SHOULD BE
GOOD VIEWING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ON FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE
COOLER AIR WILL BE LATER TO ARRIVE. WITH THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE WINDS...MAINLY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
TIGHTEST. STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN WITH AMPLE COLD AIR
ADVECTION. FOR NOW HAVE HELD WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.

UPPER RIDGE PASSING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND MILD
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TROF THEN WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS TO START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 00Z. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 00Z AND MOVE/EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 230538
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1238 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ONLY A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MADE FOR THIS
UPDATE. HETTINGER WAS ALREADY REPORTING 33 DEGREES...A TAD BELOW THE
FORECAST MINIMUM. EXPECTING A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND TONIGHT SO WAS
NOT CONFIDENT ON LOWERING TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH IN THE WEST.
OTHERWISE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER
CENTRAL MANITOBA WAS OVER THE MINOT/TURTLE MOUNTAIN/NORTHERN JAMES
VALLEY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST...AND EXPECT
CLOUDS TO MOVE EASTWARD AND BE OUT OF THE AREA IN 2-3 HOURS. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...REMOVED SHOWERS FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON
FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE REGION VIA SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING IN SOME STRATO CU ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AND WILL EXIT THE REGION BY MID EVENING. ACROSS THE
EAST AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION AND WILL
CARRY THE SHOWERS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BE
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 7 PM CDT. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRYER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. GOOD VIEWING
OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH ALL THE
DYNAMICS NORTH AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE STATE. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST AS THE MODELS POINT TO A TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MODELS
DIFFER GREATLY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN NEAR
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CIGS OVER KMOT HAS MOVED EAST...BUT SOME LINGERING SCATTERED
CLOUDS NEAR KJMS MAY AFFECT KJMS FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 00Z. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 00Z AND MOVE/EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities