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000
FXUS63 KBIS 301754
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
15 UTC HRRR TRYING TO CONVEY THE ANTICIPATED BREAKS IN ACTIVITY
BETWEEN THE CURRENT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ND
AT THIS TIME...AND THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL BY MID AFTERNOON. DID ADD A MENTION OF SEVERE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL 21-00 UTC ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR AND
LOW LEVEL HELICITY. THE LATEST HRRR IS NOT A STRONG WITH LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY CONVECTION OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. STRONG STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT INTO NORTH
DAKOTA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY STRONG SHEAR/LOW
LEVEL HELICITY WILL EXIST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AROUND 20/21Z
AND LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL
BE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE FROM AROUND THE MISSOURI RIVER EAST INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...DUE TO THE
EXPECTED FAST STORM MOTION...AND WEAK TORNADOES DUE TO THE STRONG
SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY. WILL FRESHEN UP PRODUCTS INCLUDING
THE HWO WITH LATEST THINKING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR RAPID CITY IS LIFTING
NORTH. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CURRENT TRENDS HAVE THE RAIN
ARRIVING IN BISMARCK AROUND 9 AM CDT. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
FOR THIS. ALSO FOG NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THOUGHT. CONFINED
THE FOG MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL BY MID AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTH
NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE AS THE SURFACE LIFTS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DO
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 301532
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1032 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. STRONG STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT INTO NORTH
DAKOTA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY STRONG SHEAR/LOW
LEVEL HELICITY WILL EXIST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AROUND 20/21Z
AND LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL
BE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE FROM AROUND THE MISSOURI RIVER EAST INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...DUE TO THE
EXPECTED FAST STORM MOTION...AND WEAK TORNADOES DUE TO THE STRONG
SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY. WILL FRESHEN UP PRODUCTS INCLUDING
THE HWO WITH LATEST THINKING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR RAPID CITY IS LIFTING
NORTH. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CURRENT TRENDS HAVE THE RAIN
ARRIVING IN BISMARCK AROUND 9 AM CDT. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
FOR THIS. ALSO FOG NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THOUGHT. CONFINED
THE FOG MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS TODAY. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID- DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 301532
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1032 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. STRONG STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT INTO NORTH
DAKOTA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY STRONG SHEAR/LOW
LEVEL HELICITY WILL EXIST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AROUND 20/21Z
AND LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL
BE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE FROM AROUND THE MISSOURI RIVER EAST INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...DUE TO THE
EXPECTED FAST STORM MOTION...AND WEAK TORNADOES DUE TO THE STRONG
SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY. WILL FRESHEN UP PRODUCTS INCLUDING
THE HWO WITH LATEST THINKING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR RAPID CITY IS LIFTING
NORTH. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CURRENT TRENDS HAVE THE RAIN
ARRIVING IN BISMARCK AROUND 9 AM CDT. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
FOR THIS. ALSO FOG NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THOUGHT. CONFINED
THE FOG MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS TODAY. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID- DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 301142
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR RAPID CITY IS LIFTING
NORTH. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CURRENT TRENDS HAVE THE RAIN
ARRIVING IN BISMARCK AROUND 9 AM CDT. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
FOR THIS. ALSO FOG NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THOUGHT. CONFINED
THE FOG MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS TODAY. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID- DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 300850
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY
AROUND 09Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR
AFTER 10Z THIS TUESDAY MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV










000
FXUS63 KBIS 300850
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY
AROUND 09Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR
AFTER 10Z THIS TUESDAY MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV









000
FXUS63 KBIS 300550
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER THE NE/CO
BORDER. ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
EXPECT SHOWERS FROM LAKE SAKAKAWEA SOUTHWARD AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES NORTHWARD FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
09Z. AFTER 15Z THE STACKED SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK AND
NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

INITIAL UPPER WAVE HAS PUSHED NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH ONLY A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING. NEXT STRONGER WAVE IS MAKING A
QUICK APPROACH WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MANY PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THOUGH HAVE INCREASED CHANCES
LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE PUSHED CHANCES A BIT FURTHER EAST IN LINE
WITH LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A REDUCTION IN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN PER LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...FOR EVENING UPDATE HAVE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT OVER
THIS AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING THAT LIFTS TO NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL. FARTHER EAST...A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT THESE WERE
QUICKLY FILLING IN AS INSOLATION INCREASED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED POPS EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG FORCING LIFTS DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORT WAVE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY
AROUND 09Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR
AFTER 10Z THIS TUESDAY MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 300550
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER THE NE/CO
BORDER. ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
EXPECT SHOWERS FROM LAKE SAKAKAWEA SOUTHWARD AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES NORTHWARD FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
09Z. AFTER 15Z THE STACKED SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK AND
NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

INITIAL UPPER WAVE HAS PUSHED NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH ONLY A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING. NEXT STRONGER WAVE IS MAKING A
QUICK APPROACH WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MANY PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THOUGH HAVE INCREASED CHANCES
LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE PUSHED CHANCES A BIT FURTHER EAST IN LINE
WITH LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A REDUCTION IN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN PER LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...FOR EVENING UPDATE HAVE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT OVER
THIS AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING THAT LIFTS TO NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL. FARTHER EAST...A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT THESE WERE
QUICKLY FILLING IN AS INSOLATION INCREASED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED POPS EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG FORCING LIFTS DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORT WAVE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY
AROUND 09Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR
AFTER 10Z THIS TUESDAY MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300227
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
927 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

INITIAL UPPER WAVE HAS PUSHED NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH ONLY A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING. NEXT STRONGER WAVE IS MAKING A
QUICK APPROACH WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MANY PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THOUGH HAVE INCREASED CHANCES
LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE PUSHED CHANCES A BIT FURTHER EAST IN LINE
WITH LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A REDUCTION IN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN PER LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...FOR EVENING UPDATE HAVE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT OVER
THIS AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING THAT LIFTS TO NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL. FARTHER EAST...A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT THESE WERE
QUICKLY FILLING IN AS INSOLATION INCREASED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED POPS EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG FORCING LIFTS DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORT WAVE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300227
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
927 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

INITIAL UPPER WAVE HAS PUSHED NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH ONLY A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING. NEXT STRONGER WAVE IS MAKING A
QUICK APPROACH WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MANY PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THOUGH HAVE INCREASED CHANCES
LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE PUSHED CHANCES A BIT FURTHER EAST IN LINE
WITH LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A REDUCTION IN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN PER LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...FOR EVENING UPDATE HAVE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT OVER
THIS AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING THAT LIFTS TO NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL. FARTHER EAST...A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT THESE WERE
QUICKLY FILLING IN AS INSOLATION INCREASED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED POPS EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG FORCING LIFTS DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORT WAVE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 292312
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
612 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A REDUCTION IN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN PER LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...FOR EVENING UPDATE HAVE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT OVER
THIS AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING THAT LIFTS TO NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL. FARTHER EAST...A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT THESE WERE
QUICKLY FILLING IN AS INSOLATION INCREASED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED POPS EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG FORCING LIFTS DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORT WAVE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 292312
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
612 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A REDUCTION IN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN PER LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...FOR EVENING UPDATE HAVE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT OVER
THIS AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING THAT LIFTS TO NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL. FARTHER EAST...A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT THESE WERE
QUICKLY FILLING IN AS INSOLATION INCREASED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED POPS EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG FORCING LIFTS DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORT WAVE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 292025
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING THAT LIFTS TO NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL. FARTHER EAST...A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT THESE WERE
QUICKLY FILLING IN AS INSOLATION INCREASED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED POPS EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG FORCING LIFTS DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORT WAVE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT 20 UTC. EXCEPT FOR A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AROUND KBIS-KJMS TO KMOT...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ESPECIALLY AT KDIK WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF UP SLOPE FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AROUND
KDIK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SPREAD INTO KISN...KMOT AND KBIS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF AT KJMS UNTIL AFTER 18 UTC TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TWH









000
FXUS63 KBIS 292025
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING THAT LIFTS TO NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL. FARTHER EAST...A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT THESE WERE
QUICKLY FILLING IN AS INSOLATION INCREASED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED POPS EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG FORCING LIFTS DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORT WAVE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT 20 UTC. EXCEPT FOR A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AROUND KBIS-KJMS TO KMOT...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ESPECIALLY AT KDIK WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF UP SLOPE FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AROUND
KDIK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SPREAD INTO KISN...KMOT AND KBIS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF AT KJMS UNTIL AFTER 18 UTC TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TWH










000
FXUS63 KBIS 291756
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1256 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS TO CUT BACK ON
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN EXTENT OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN LINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IS PRODUCING AN INCREASINGLY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
LIFT INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH AREAS OF FOG. AS YOU GO NORTH
AND EAST...MOISTURE IS MORE SCARCE...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR SCATTERED LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. THIS AREA COULD BREAK OUT
LATER TODAY BUT THE SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN UNDER LOW CLOUDS WITH
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE
WARRANTED. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION
WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS OVER COLORADO. THIS WAS KEEPING A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW WAS PROMOTING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REGENERATING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN
BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN...AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
APPARENTLY THE VERY WEAK TAIL END OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SHOWERS. THUS HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
DAYBREAK.

MEANWHILE...THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUED MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING MAINLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS...BUT RECENT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ON RADARS IN THE PLAINS
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LOW ROUNDS ITS BASE AND
LEADS THE LOW AS IT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...PLENTY OF LEADING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRECEDES THE MAIN LOW AND WILL PROVIDE GOOD
INSTABILITY - ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA/WYOMING - TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BEST CHANCES TODAY FOR SHOWERS IS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. TONIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATING ELEVATED CAPE
BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.75 TO 1.50 OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 8 -
HALLIDAY/RICHARDTON/LEMMON SD LINE) FROM TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY MORNING.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A RECOVERY TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY MAINLY 50 TO 60. LOWS
TONIGHT 40 TO 50.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
WEDNESDAY.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT AT UTC. EXCEPT FOR A FEW POSSIBLE BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING AROUND KJMS TO POSSIBLY KMOT...EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ESPECIALLY AT KDIK
WITH ENHANCEMENT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
AROUND KDIK TODAY...BUT SPREAD INTO KISN...KMOT AND KBIS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF
AT KJMS UNTIL AFTER 18 UTC TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 291756
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1256 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS TO CUT BACK ON
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN EXTENT OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN LINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IS PRODUCING AN INCREASINGLY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
LIFT INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH AREAS OF FOG. AS YOU GO NORTH
AND EAST...MOISTURE IS MORE SCARCE...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR SCATTERED LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. THIS AREA COULD BREAK OUT
LATER TODAY BUT THE SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN UNDER LOW CLOUDS WITH
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE
WARRANTED. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION
WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS OVER COLORADO. THIS WAS KEEPING A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW WAS PROMOTING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REGENERATING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN
BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN...AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
APPARENTLY THE VERY WEAK TAIL END OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SHOWERS. THUS HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
DAYBREAK.

MEANWHILE...THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUED MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING MAINLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS...BUT RECENT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ON RADARS IN THE PLAINS
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LOW ROUNDS ITS BASE AND
LEADS THE LOW AS IT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...PLENTY OF LEADING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRECEDES THE MAIN LOW AND WILL PROVIDE GOOD
INSTABILITY - ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA/WYOMING - TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BEST CHANCES TODAY FOR SHOWERS IS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. TONIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATING ELEVATED CAPE
BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.75 TO 1.50 OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 8 -
HALLIDAY/RICHARDTON/LEMMON SD LINE) FROM TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY MORNING.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A RECOVERY TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY MAINLY 50 TO 60. LOWS
TONIGHT 40 TO 50.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
WEDNESDAY.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT AT UTC. EXCEPT FOR A FEW POSSIBLE BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING AROUND KJMS TO POSSIBLY KMOT...EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ESPECIALLY AT KDIK
WITH ENHANCEMENT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
AROUND KDIK TODAY...BUT SPREAD INTO KISN...KMOT AND KBIS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF
AT KJMS UNTIL AFTER 18 UTC TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH









000
FXUS63 KBIS 291436
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IS PRODUCING AN INCREASINGLY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
LIFT INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH AREAS OF FOG. AS YOU GO NORTH
AND EAST...MOISTURE IS MORE SCARCE...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR SCATTERED LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. THIS AREA COULD BREAK OUT
LATER TODAY BUT THE SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN UNDER LOW CLOUDS WITH
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE
WARRANTED. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION
WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS OVER COLORADO. THIS WAS KEEPING A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW WAS PROMOTING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REGENERATING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN
BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN...AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
APPARENTLY THE VERY WEAK TAIL END OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SHOWERS. THUS HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
DAYBREAK.

MEANWHILE...THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUED MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING MAINLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS...BUT RECENT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ON RADARS IN THE PLAINS
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LOW ROUNDS ITS BASE AND
LEADS THE LOW AS IT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...PLENTY OF LEADING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRECEDES THE MAIN LOW AND WILL PROVIDE GOOD
INSTABILITY - ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA/WYOMING - TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BEST CHANCES TODAY FOR SHOWERS IS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. TONIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATING ELEVATED CAPE
BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.75 TO 1.50 OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 8 -
HALLIDAY/RICHARDTON/LEMMON SD LINE) FROM TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY MORNING.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A RECOVERY TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY MAINLY 50 TO 60. LOWS
TONIGHT 40 TO 50.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
WEDNESDAY.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO
MVFR OVER MOST LOCATIONS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS INTO THE EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY
AFFECTING KDIK/KISN.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 291143
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
643 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION
WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS OVER COLORADO. THIS WAS KEEPING A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW WAS PROMOTING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REGENERATING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN
BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN...AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
APPARENTLY THE VERY WEAK TAIL END OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SHOWERS. THUS HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
DAYBREAK.

MEANWHILE...THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUED MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING MAINLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS...BUT RECENT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ON RADARS IN THE PLAINS
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LOW ROUNDS ITS BASE AND
LEADS THE LOW AS IT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...PLENTY OF LEADING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRECEDES THE MAIN LOW AND WILL PROVIDE GOOD
INSTABILITY - ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA/WYOMING - TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BEST CHANCES TODAY FOR SHOWERS IS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. TONIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATING ELEVATED CAPE
BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.75 TO 1.50 OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 8 -
HALLIDAY/RICHARDTON/LEMMON SD LINE) FROM TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY MORNING.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A RECOVERY TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY MAINLY 50 TO 60. LOWS
TONIGHT 40 TO 50.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
WEDNESDAY.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO
MVFR OVER MOST LOCATIONS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS INTO THE EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY
AFFECTING KDIK/KISN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 291143
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
643 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION
WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS OVER COLORADO. THIS WAS KEEPING A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW WAS PROMOTING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REGENERATING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN
BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN...AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
APPARENTLY THE VERY WEAK TAIL END OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SHOWERS. THUS HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
DAYBREAK.

MEANWHILE...THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUED MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING MAINLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS...BUT RECENT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ON RADARS IN THE PLAINS
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LOW ROUNDS ITS BASE AND
LEADS THE LOW AS IT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...PLENTY OF LEADING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRECEDES THE MAIN LOW AND WILL PROVIDE GOOD
INSTABILITY - ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA/WYOMING - TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BEST CHANCES TODAY FOR SHOWERS IS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. TONIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATING ELEVATED CAPE
BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.75 TO 1.50 OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 8 -
HALLIDAY/RICHARDTON/LEMMON SD LINE) FROM TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY MORNING.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A RECOVERY TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY MAINLY 50 TO 60. LOWS
TONIGHT 40 TO 50.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
WEDNESDAY.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO
MVFR OVER MOST LOCATIONS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS INTO THE EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY
AFFECTING KDIK/KISN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 290830
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION
WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS OVER COLORADO. THIS WAS KEEPING A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW WAS PROMOTING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REGENERATING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN
BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN...AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
APPARENTLY THE VERY WEAK TAIL END OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SHOWERS. THUS HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
DAYBREAK.

MEANWHILE...THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUED MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING MAINLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS...BUT RECENT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ON RADARS IN THE PLAINS
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LOW ROUNDS ITS BASE AND
LEADS THE LOW AS IT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...PLENTY OF LEADING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRECEDES THE MAIN LOW AND WILL PROVIDE GOOD
INSTABILITY - ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA/WYOMING - TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BEST CHANCES TODAY FOR SHOWERS IS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. TONIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATING ELEVATED CAPE
BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.75 TO 1.50 OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 8 -
HALLIDAY/RICHARDTON/LEMMON SD LINE) FROM TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY MORNING.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A RECOVERY TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY MAINLY 50 TO 60. LOWS
TONIGHT 40 TO 50.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
WEDNESDAY.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LCL LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO
MVFR OVER MOST LOCATIONS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY AFFECTING
KDIK/KISN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 290830
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION
WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS OVER COLORADO. THIS WAS KEEPING A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW WAS PROMOTING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REGENERATING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN
BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN...AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
APPARENTLY THE VERY WEAK TAIL END OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SHOWERS. THUS HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
DAYBREAK.

MEANWHILE...THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUED MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING MAINLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS...BUT RECENT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ON RADARS IN THE PLAINS
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LOW ROUNDS ITS BASE AND
LEADS THE LOW AS IT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...PLENTY OF LEADING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRECEDES THE MAIN LOW AND WILL PROVIDE GOOD
INSTABILITY - ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA/WYOMING - TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BEST CHANCES TODAY FOR SHOWERS IS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. TONIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATING ELEVATED CAPE
BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.75 TO 1.50 OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 8 -
HALLIDAY/RICHARDTON/LEMMON SD LINE) FROM TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY MORNING.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A RECOVERY TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY MAINLY 50 TO 60. LOWS
TONIGHT 40 TO 50.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
WEDNESDAY.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LCL LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO
MVFR OVER MOST LOCATIONS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY AFFECTING
KDIK/KISN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 290539
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA APPEARS TO BE THE LAST
OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
WILL STILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN CASE A STRAY
SHOWER POPS UP. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE/WESTERN
PLAINS...AND IS PROGGED TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY THE SHOWERS AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
COLORADO. THIS WAS KEEPING A MOIST NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW OF AIR OVER
THE STATE. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES ALL AREA FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE THE EAST WINDS PROVIDE UP SLOPE FLOW/LIFT OF LOW LEVEL
AIR. CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS ON TRACK WITH ALL
FORECAST ELEMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE ON THE DECREASE AND HAS MAINLY
SHIFTED EAST...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG STARTING TO SHOW
UP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLING THIS WELL. ONLY CHANGES FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE
WAS TO UP CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO
THE 50S MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH NEAR A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL S/WV MOVING
EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH. WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST...COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. A STEADY EASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL
ALSO RESULT IN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LEAD S/WV IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS WEST. DRY EAST WHICH WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND SFC HIGH.
WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE 50F DEGREES. WARMER EAST WHERE I EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT DIRECTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRESENT OVER THE REGION TO WARRANT
WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH VERY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES.

AFTER THE MAIN WAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY...TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE
PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THESE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS POTENT AS THE EARLY WEEK WAVE
AND SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER AND BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS. BUT...THIS THESE FEATURES ARE STILL A WAYS OUT AND
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER LATE THIS WEEK.

OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LCL LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO
MVFR OVER MOST LOCATIONS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY AFFECTING
KDIK/KISN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 290539
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA APPEARS TO BE THE LAST
OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
WILL STILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN CASE A STRAY
SHOWER POPS UP. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE/WESTERN
PLAINS...AND IS PROGGED TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY THE SHOWERS AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
COLORADO. THIS WAS KEEPING A MOIST NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW OF AIR OVER
THE STATE. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES ALL AREA FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE THE EAST WINDS PROVIDE UP SLOPE FLOW/LIFT OF LOW LEVEL
AIR. CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS ON TRACK WITH ALL
FORECAST ELEMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE ON THE DECREASE AND HAS MAINLY
SHIFTED EAST...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG STARTING TO SHOW
UP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLING THIS WELL. ONLY CHANGES FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE
WAS TO UP CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO
THE 50S MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH NEAR A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL S/WV MOVING
EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH. WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST...COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. A STEADY EASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL
ALSO RESULT IN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LEAD S/WV IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS WEST. DRY EAST WHICH WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND SFC HIGH.
WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE 50F DEGREES. WARMER EAST WHERE I EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT DIRECTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRESENT OVER THE REGION TO WARRANT
WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH VERY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES.

AFTER THE MAIN WAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY...TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE
PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THESE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS POTENT AS THE EARLY WEEK WAVE
AND SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER AND BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS. BUT...THIS THESE FEATURES ARE STILL A WAYS OUT AND
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER LATE THIS WEEK.

OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LCL LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO
MVFR OVER MOST LOCATIONS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY AFFECTING
KDIK/KISN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 290230
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
930 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE ON THE DECREASE AND HAS MAINLY
SHIFTED EAST...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG STARTING TO SHOW
UP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLING THIS WELL. ONLY CHANGES FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE
WAS TO UP CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO
THE 50S MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH NEAR A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL S/WV MOVING
EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH. WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST...COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. A STEADY EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL
ALSO RESULT IN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LEAD S/WV IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS WEST. DRY EAST WHICH WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND SFC HIGH.
WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE 50F DEGREES. WARMER EAST WHERE I EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT DIRECTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRESENT OVER THE REGION TO WARRANT
WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH VERY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES.

AFTER THE MAIN WAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY...TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE
PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THESE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS POTENT AS THE EARLY WEEK WAVE
AND SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER AND BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS. BUT...THIS THESE FEATURES ARE STILL A WAYS OUT AND
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER LATE THIS WEEK.

OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SCT -SHRA. LCL LIFR
CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 290230
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
930 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE ON THE DECREASE AND HAS MAINLY
SHIFTED EAST...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG STARTING TO SHOW
UP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLING THIS WELL. ONLY CHANGES FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE
WAS TO UP CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO
THE 50S MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH NEAR A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL S/WV MOVING
EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH. WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST...COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. A STEADY EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL
ALSO RESULT IN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LEAD S/WV IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS WEST. DRY EAST WHICH WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND SFC HIGH.
WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE 50F DEGREES. WARMER EAST WHERE I EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT DIRECTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRESENT OVER THE REGION TO WARRANT
WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH VERY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES.

AFTER THE MAIN WAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY...TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE
PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THESE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS POTENT AS THE EARLY WEEK WAVE
AND SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER AND BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS. BUT...THIS THESE FEATURES ARE STILL A WAYS OUT AND
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER LATE THIS WEEK.

OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SCT -SHRA. LCL LIFR
CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 282331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLING THIS WELL. ONLY CHANGES FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE
WAS TO UP CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO
THE 50S MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH NEAR A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL S/WV MOVING
EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH. WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST...COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. A STEADY EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL
ALSO RESULT IN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LEAD S/WV IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS WEST. DRY EAST WHICH WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND SFC HIGH.
WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE 50F DEGREES. WARMER EAST WHERE I EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT DIRECTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRESENT OVER THE REGION TO WARRANT
WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH VERY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES.

AFTER THE MAIN WAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY...TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE
PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THESE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS POTENT AS THE EARLY WEEK WAVE
AND SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER AND BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS. BUT...THIS THESE FEATURES ARE STILL A WAYS OUT AND
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER LATE THIS WEEK.

OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SCT -SHRA. LCL LIFR
CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 282331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLING THIS WELL. ONLY CHANGES FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE
WAS TO UP CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO
THE 50S MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH NEAR A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL S/WV MOVING
EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH. WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST...COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. A STEADY EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL
ALSO RESULT IN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LEAD S/WV IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS WEST. DRY EAST WHICH WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND SFC HIGH.
WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE 50F DEGREES. WARMER EAST WHERE I EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT DIRECTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRESENT OVER THE REGION TO WARRANT
WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH VERY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES.

AFTER THE MAIN WAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY...TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE
PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THESE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS POTENT AS THE EARLY WEEK WAVE
AND SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER AND BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS. BUT...THIS THESE FEATURES ARE STILL A WAYS OUT AND
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER LATE THIS WEEK.

OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SCT -SHRA. LCL LIFR
CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 281925
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO
THE 50S MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH NEAR A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL S/WV MOVING
EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH. WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST...COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. A STEADY EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL
ALSO RESULT IN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LEAD S/WV IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS WEST. DRY EAST WHICH WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND SFC HIGH.
WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE 50F DEGREES. WARMER EAST WHERE I EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT DIRECTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRESENT OVER THE REGION TO WARRANT
WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH VERY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES.

AFTER THE MAIN WAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY...TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE
PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THESE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS POTENT AS THE EARLY WEEK WAVE
AND SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER AND BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS. BUT...THIS THESE FEATURES ARE STILL A WAYS OUT AND
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER LATE THIS WEEK.

OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING...SHIFTING TO MORE EASTERLY
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAINLY MVFR CIGS ALL TAF SITES WITH
OCCASIONAL BREAKS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL...KISN/KMOT...WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD BUT BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MVFR-IFR CIGS TONIGHT WITH
POCKETS OF LIFR AND PATCHY FOG.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH










000
FXUS63 KBIS 281925
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO
THE 50S MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH NEAR A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL S/WV MOVING
EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH. WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST...COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. A STEADY EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL
ALSO RESULT IN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LEAD S/WV IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS WEST. DRY EAST WHICH WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND SFC HIGH.
WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE 50F DEGREES. WARMER EAST WHERE I EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT DIRECTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRESENT OVER THE REGION TO WARRANT
WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH VERY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES.

AFTER THE MAIN WAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY...TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE
PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THESE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS POTENT AS THE EARLY WEEK WAVE
AND SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER AND BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS. BUT...THIS THESE FEATURES ARE STILL A WAYS OUT AND
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER LATE THIS WEEK.

OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING...SHIFTING TO MORE EASTERLY
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAINLY MVFR CIGS ALL TAF SITES WITH
OCCASIONAL BREAKS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL...KISN/KMOT...WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD BUT BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MVFR-IFR CIGS TONIGHT WITH
POCKETS OF LIFR AND PATCHY FOG.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH









000
FXUS63 KBIS 281657
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1157 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR UPDATES WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE. CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
NORTH NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL
S/WV MOVING EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. A STEADY
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.




UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MORNING. AFTERWARDS WE STABILIZE PRETTY WELL ACROSS THE
AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS. CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED AND
TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED DOWN 2-4F DEGREES FOR THE MID MORNING
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.
THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM BETWEEN GRAND FORKS AND
FARGO...SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR JAMESTOWN...TO NEAR LINTON AND FORT
YATES. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS WERE NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE 40S. CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH STILL
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN A
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA...WITH SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT ON
REGIONAL RADARS OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING/MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE 50S NORTH AND
WEST...AND IN THE 60S SOUTH CENTRAL.

TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE NORTH AND INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THIS OCCURS. CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS WILL KEEP COLDER AIR OVER THE STATE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE WEST MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO
TIGHTEN UP INTO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST AND
NORTH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD
ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEAST TODAY...SHIFTING TO MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MVFR CIGS ALL TAF SITES WITH OCCASIONAL BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL TO KISN/KMOT...THEN EXPAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
AND TONIGHT. MVFR-IFR CIGS TONIGHT WITH POCKETS OF LIFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 281657
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1157 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR UPDATES WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE. CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
NORTH NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL
S/WV MOVING EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. A STEADY
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.




UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MORNING. AFTERWARDS WE STABILIZE PRETTY WELL ACROSS THE
AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS. CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED AND
TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED DOWN 2-4F DEGREES FOR THE MID MORNING
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.
THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM BETWEEN GRAND FORKS AND
FARGO...SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR JAMESTOWN...TO NEAR LINTON AND FORT
YATES. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS WERE NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE 40S. CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH STILL
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN A
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA...WITH SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT ON
REGIONAL RADARS OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING/MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE 50S NORTH AND
WEST...AND IN THE 60S SOUTH CENTRAL.

TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE NORTH AND INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THIS OCCURS. CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS WILL KEEP COLDER AIR OVER THE STATE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE WEST MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO
TIGHTEN UP INTO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST AND
NORTH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD
ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEAST TODAY...SHIFTING TO MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MVFR CIGS ALL TAF SITES WITH OCCASIONAL BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL TO KISN/KMOT...THEN EXPAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
AND TONIGHT. MVFR-IFR CIGS TONIGHT WITH POCKETS OF LIFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 281421
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
921 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MORNING. AFTERWARDS WE STABILIZE PRETTY WELL ACROSS THE
AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS. CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED AND
TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED DOWN 2-4F DEGREES FOR THE MID MORNING
UPDATE.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.
THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM BETWEEN GRAND FORKS AND
FARGO...SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR JAMESTOWN...TO NEAR LINTON AND FORT
YATES. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS WERE NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE 40S. CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH STILL
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN A
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA...WITH SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT ON
REGIONAL RADARS OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING/MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE 50S NORTH AND
WEST...AND IN THE 60S SOUTH CENTRAL.

TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE NORTH AND INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THIS OCCURS. CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS WILL KEEP COLDER AIR OVER THE STATE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE WEST MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO
TIGHTEN UP INTO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST AND
NORTH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD
ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KFAR TO JUST SOUTH OF KJMS TO MOBRIDGE
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH TODAY. MVFR CIGS AT KHEI/KDIK TO KBIS SHOULD
EXPAND TO OTHER TAF SITES. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TO KISN/KMOT...THEN EXPAND SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR TO CONTINUE AND PERHAPS BECOME IFR TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 281421
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
921 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MORNING. AFTERWARDS WE STABILIZE PRETTY WELL ACROSS THE
AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS. CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED AND
TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED DOWN 2-4F DEGREES FOR THE MID MORNING
UPDATE.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.
THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM BETWEEN GRAND FORKS AND
FARGO...SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR JAMESTOWN...TO NEAR LINTON AND FORT
YATES. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS WERE NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE 40S. CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH STILL
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN A
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA...WITH SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT ON
REGIONAL RADARS OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING/MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE 50S NORTH AND
WEST...AND IN THE 60S SOUTH CENTRAL.

TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE NORTH AND INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THIS OCCURS. CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS WILL KEEP COLDER AIR OVER THE STATE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE WEST MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO
TIGHTEN UP INTO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST AND
NORTH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD
ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KFAR TO JUST SOUTH OF KJMS TO MOBRIDGE
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH TODAY. MVFR CIGS AT KHEI/KDIK TO KBIS SHOULD
EXPAND TO OTHER TAF SITES. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TO KISN/KMOT...THEN EXPAND SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR TO CONTINUE AND PERHAPS BECOME IFR TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 281145
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
645 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.
THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM BETWEEN GRAND FORKS AND
FARGO...SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR JAMESTOWN...TO NEAR LINTON AND FORT
YATES. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS WERE NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE 40S. CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH STILL
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN A
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA...WITH SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT ON
REGIONAL RADARS OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING/MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE 50S NORTH AND
WEST...AND IN THE 60S SOUTH CENTRAL.

TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE NORTH AND INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THIS OCCURS. CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS WILL KEEP COLDER AIR OVER THE STATE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE WEST MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO
TIGHTEN UP INTO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST AND
NORTH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD
ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KFAR TO JUST SOUTH OF KJMS TO MOBRIDGE
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH TODAY. MVFR CIGS AT KHEI/KDIK TO KBIS SHOULD
EXPAND TO OTHER TAF SITES. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TO KISN/KMOT...THEN EXPAND SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR TO CONTINUE AND PERHAPS BECOME IFR TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 281145
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
645 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.
THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM BETWEEN GRAND FORKS AND
FARGO...SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR JAMESTOWN...TO NEAR LINTON AND FORT
YATES. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS WERE NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE 40S. CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH STILL
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN A
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA...WITH SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT ON
REGIONAL RADARS OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING/MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE 50S NORTH AND
WEST...AND IN THE 60S SOUTH CENTRAL.

TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE NORTH AND INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THIS OCCURS. CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS WILL KEEP COLDER AIR OVER THE STATE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE WEST MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO
TIGHTEN UP INTO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST AND
NORTH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD
ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KFAR TO JUST SOUTH OF KJMS TO MOBRIDGE
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH TODAY. MVFR CIGS AT KHEI/KDIK TO KBIS SHOULD
EXPAND TO OTHER TAF SITES. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TO KISN/KMOT...THEN EXPAND SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR TO CONTINUE AND PERHAPS BECOME IFR TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 280813
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM BETWEEN GRAND FORKS AND
FARGO...SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR JAMESTOWN...TO NEAR LINTON AND FORT
YATES. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS WERE NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE 40S. CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH STILL
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN A
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA...WITH SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT ON
REGIONAL RADARS OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING/MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE 50S NORTH AND
WEST...AND IN THE 60S SOUTH CENTRAL.

TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE NORTH AND INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THIS OCCURS. CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS WILL KEEP COLDER AIR OVER THE STATE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE WEST MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO
TIGHTEN UP INTO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST AND
NORTH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD
ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KGFK/KFAR TO NEAR KJMS TO LINTON/FORT
YATES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
WINDS SWITCHING NORTH/NORTHEAST IN ITS WAKE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER
WITH SHOWERS SLOWLY DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN VFR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS OF MVFR
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SPREADING SOUTH LATER THIS SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280813
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM BETWEEN GRAND FORKS AND
FARGO...SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR JAMESTOWN...TO NEAR LINTON AND FORT
YATES. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS WERE NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE 40S. CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH STILL
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN A
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA...WITH SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT ON
REGIONAL RADARS OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING/MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE 50S NORTH AND
WEST...AND IN THE 60S SOUTH CENTRAL.

TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE NORTH AND INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THIS OCCURS. CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS WILL KEEP COLDER AIR OVER THE STATE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE WEST MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO
TIGHTEN UP INTO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST AND
NORTH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD
ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KGFK/KFAR TO NEAR KJMS TO LINTON/FORT
YATES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
WINDS SWITCHING NORTH/NORTHEAST IN ITS WAKE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER
WITH SHOWERS SLOWLY DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN VFR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS OF MVFR
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SPREADING SOUTH LATER THIS SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 280540
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1240 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

COLD FRONT WAS BETWEEN GRAND FORKS AND FARGO...SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST
NORTH OF JAMESTOWN...TO NEAR LINTON AND FORT YATES. THE FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS MANITOBA. CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S NORTHWEST
AND INTO THE 50S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND JUST
WENT THROUGH GRAND FORKS AND STRETCHES TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
CARRINGTON AND JAMESTOWN AND OFF TO THE SOUTH OF BISMARCK. CLOUD
COVER CONTINUES TO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER WESTERN INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE FRONT. UPDATE WILL ADDRESS THIS
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT  621 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM JUST NORTH
OF GRAND FORKS DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK. PREVIOUS FORECAST
ADDRESSED MAIN CONCERNS RATHER WELL. FOR EVENING UPDATE HAVE
ADJUSTED WINDS SLIGHTLY WITH FRONTAL POSITION ALONG WITH CLOUD
COVER MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME LOW POPS OVER
THE FAR NORTHWEST AS A FEW ECHOS HAVE STARTED SHOWING UP ON RADAR
IN THAT AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO OFFER A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION WITH
EACH RUN.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM JUST SOUTH OF BISMARCK
NORTHEAST TO AROUND DEVILS LAKE. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS TO
THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND FAR
WEST CENTRAL. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE NORTHWEST WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADY OR EVEN FALLING.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTH ALONG A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE. IN ADDITION...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...ENHANCING THE MID LEVEL
FORCING IN THE FAR NORTH BY LATE TONIGHT. POPS WERE DELAYED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TONIGHT...KEEPING ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST DRY
THIS EVENING AND HOLDING POPS OUT OF THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATED VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY ALOFT SO WE ALSO DROPPED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER.

SUNDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EVENTUALLY DROP INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
SHOULD GET ONE MORE DRY DAY. CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGER
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH COLDER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN QUIETER FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.

SOMEWHAT QUIET PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT SOME
LINGERING/SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WE TRANSITION TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW WILL START TO EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY...WITH LEAD S/WV IMPULSES EJECTING NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS WEST FOR
THESE FEATURES. DID TRIM DOWN PRECIP CHANCES EAST WHICH WILL BE
MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC HIGH. THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL/DEFINITE
WITH MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THIS FEATURE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE ROBUST AS WELL
AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH A HEALTHY SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MODELS STILL PORTRAY WEAK INSTABILITY ADVECTING NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE LOW...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST AND MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY EVENING AREA WIDE. CAPE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL SO
SCALED BACK FROM LIKELY THUNDER TO ISOLATED.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTH INTO CANADA.

BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS BRING A POTENT
EMBEDDED S/WV SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. ANOTHER QUIETER PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH STRONG CAA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KGFK/KFAR TO NEAR KJMS TO LINTON/FORT
YATES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
WINDS SWITCHING NORTH/NORTHEAST IN ITS WAKE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER
WITH SHOWERS SLOWLY DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN VFR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AREAS OF MVFR
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SPREADING SOUTH LATER THIS SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 280230
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
930 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND JUST
WENT THROUGH GRAND FORKS AND STRETCHES TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
CARRINGTON AND JAMESTOWN AND OFF TO THE SOUTH OF BISMARCK. CLOUD
COVER CONTINUES TO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER WESTERN INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE FRONT. UPDATE WILL ADDRESS THIS
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT  621 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM JUST NORTH
OF GRAND FORKS DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK. PREVIOUS FORECAST
ADDRESSED MAIN CONCERNS RATHER WELL. FOR EVENING UPDATE HAVE
ADJUSTED WINDS SLIGHTLY WITH FRONTAL POSITION ALONG WITH CLOUD
COVER MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME LOW POPS OVER
THE FAR NORTHWEST AS A FEW ECHOS HAVE STARTED SHOWING UP ON RADAR
IN THAT AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO OFFER A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION WITH
EACH RUN.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM JUST SOUTH OF BISMARCK
NORTHEAST TO AROUND DEVILS LAKE. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS TO
THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND FAR
WEST CENTRAL. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE NORTHWEST WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADY OR EVEN FALLING.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTH ALONG A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE. IN ADDITION...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...ENHANCING THE MID LEVEL
FORCING IN THE FAR NORTH BY LATE TONIGHT. POPS WERE DELAYED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TONIGHT...KEEPING ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST DRY
THIS EVENING AND HOLDING POPS OUT OF THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATED VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY ALOFT SO WE ALSO DROPPED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER.

SUNDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EVENTUALLY DROP INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
SHOULD GET ONE MORE DRY DAY. CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGER
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH COLDER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN QUIETER FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.

SOMEWHAT QUIET PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT SOME
LINGERING/SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WE TRANSITION TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW WILL START TO EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY...WITH LEAD S/WV IMPULSES EJECTING NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS WEST FOR
THESE FEATURES. DID TRIM DOWN PRECIP CHANCES EAST WHICH WILL BE
MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC HIGH. THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL/DEFINITE
WITH MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THIS FEATURE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE ROBUST AS WELL
AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH A HEALTHY SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MODELS STILL PORTRAY WEAK INSTABILITY ADVECTING NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE LOW...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST AND MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY EVENING AREA WIDE. CAPE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL SO
SCALED BACK FROM LIKELY THUNDER TO ISOLATED.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTH INTO CANADA.

BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS BRING A POTENT
EMBEDDED S/WV SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. ANOTHER QUIETER PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH STRONG CAA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KGFK-KBIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH WINDS SWITCHING
NORTH/NORTHEAST IN ITS WAKE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS SLOWLY DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF MVFR
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHWESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 280230
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
930 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND JUST
WENT THROUGH GRAND FORKS AND STRETCHES TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
CARRINGTON AND JAMESTOWN AND OFF TO THE SOUTH OF BISMARCK. CLOUD
COVER CONTINUES TO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER WESTERN INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE FRONT. UPDATE WILL ADDRESS THIS
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT  621 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM JUST NORTH
OF GRAND FORKS DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK. PREVIOUS FORECAST
ADDRESSED MAIN CONCERNS RATHER WELL. FOR EVENING UPDATE HAVE
ADJUSTED WINDS SLIGHTLY WITH FRONTAL POSITION ALONG WITH CLOUD
COVER MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME LOW POPS OVER
THE FAR NORTHWEST AS A FEW ECHOS HAVE STARTED SHOWING UP ON RADAR
IN THAT AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO OFFER A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION WITH
EACH RUN.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM JUST SOUTH OF BISMARCK
NORTHEAST TO AROUND DEVILS LAKE. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS TO
THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND FAR
WEST CENTRAL. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE NORTHWEST WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADY OR EVEN FALLING.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTH ALONG A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE. IN ADDITION...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...ENHANCING THE MID LEVEL
FORCING IN THE FAR NORTH BY LATE TONIGHT. POPS WERE DELAYED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TONIGHT...KEEPING ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST DRY
THIS EVENING AND HOLDING POPS OUT OF THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATED VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY ALOFT SO WE ALSO DROPPED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER.

SUNDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EVENTUALLY DROP INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
SHOULD GET ONE MORE DRY DAY. CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGER
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH COLDER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN QUIETER FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.

SOMEWHAT QUIET PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT SOME
LINGERING/SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WE TRANSITION TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW WILL START TO EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY...WITH LEAD S/WV IMPULSES EJECTING NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS WEST FOR
THESE FEATURES. DID TRIM DOWN PRECIP CHANCES EAST WHICH WILL BE
MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC HIGH. THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL/DEFINITE
WITH MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THIS FEATURE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE ROBUST AS WELL
AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH A HEALTHY SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MODELS STILL PORTRAY WEAK INSTABILITY ADVECTING NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE LOW...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST AND MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY EVENING AREA WIDE. CAPE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL SO
SCALED BACK FROM LIKELY THUNDER TO ISOLATED.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTH INTO CANADA.

BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS BRING A POTENT
EMBEDDED S/WV SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. ANOTHER QUIETER PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH STRONG CAA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KGFK-KBIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH WINDS SWITCHING
NORTH/NORTHEAST IN ITS WAKE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS SLOWLY DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF MVFR
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHWESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 272330
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT  621 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM JUST NORTH
OF GRAND FORKS DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK. PREVIOUS FORECAST
ADDRESSED MAIN CONCERNS RATHER WELL. FOR EVENING UPDATE HAVE
ADJUSTED WINDS SLIGHTLY WITH FRONTAL POSITION ALONG WITH CLOUD
COVER MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME LOW POPS OVER
THE FAR NORTHWEST AS A FEW ECHOS HAVE STARTED SHOWING UP ON RADAR
IN THAT AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO OFFER A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION WITH
EACH RUN.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM JUST SOUTH OF BISMARCK
NORTHEAST TO AROUND DEVILS LAKE. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS TO
THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND FAR
WEST CENTRAL. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE NORTHWEST WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADY OR EVEN FALLING.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTH ALONG A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE. IN ADDITION...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...ENHANCING THE MID LEVEL
FORCING IN THE FAR NORTH BY LATE TONIGHT. POPS WERE DELAYED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TONIGHT...KEEPING ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST DRY
THIS EVENING AND HOLDING POPS OUT OF THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATED VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY ALOFT SO WE ALSO DROPPED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER.

SUNDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EVENTUALLY DROP INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
SHOULD GET ONE MORE DRY DAY. CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGER
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH COLDER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN QUIETER FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.

SOMEWHAT QUIET PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT SOME
LINGERING/SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WE TRANSITION TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW WILL START TO EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY...WITH LEAD S/WV IMPULSES EJECTING NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS WEST FOR
THESE FEATURES. DID TRIM DOWN PRECIP CHANCES EAST WHICH WILL BE
MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC HIGH. THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL/DEFINITE
WITH MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THIS FEATURE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE ROBUST AS WELL
AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH A HEALTHY SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MODELS STILL PORTRAY WEAK INSTABILITY ADVECTING NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE LOW...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST AND MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY EVENING AREA WIDE. CAPE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL SO
SCALED BACK FROM LIKELY THUNDER TO ISOLATED.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTH INTO CANADA.

BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS BRING A POTENT
EMBEDDED S/WV SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. ANOTHER QUIETER PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH STRONG CAA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KGFK-KBIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH WINDS SWITCHING
NORTH/NORTHEAST IN ITS WAKE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS SLOWLY DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF MVFR
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHWESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 272330
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT  621 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM JUST NORTH
OF GRAND FORKS DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK. PREVIOUS FORECAST
ADDRESSED MAIN CONCERNS RATHER WELL. FOR EVENING UPDATE HAVE
ADJUSTED WINDS SLIGHTLY WITH FRONTAL POSITION ALONG WITH CLOUD
COVER MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME LOW POPS OVER
THE FAR NORTHWEST AS A FEW ECHOS HAVE STARTED SHOWING UP ON RADAR
IN THAT AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO OFFER A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION WITH
EACH RUN.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM JUST SOUTH OF BISMARCK
NORTHEAST TO AROUND DEVILS LAKE. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS TO
THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND FAR
WEST CENTRAL. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE NORTHWEST WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADY OR EVEN FALLING.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTH ALONG A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE. IN ADDITION...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...ENHANCING THE MID LEVEL
FORCING IN THE FAR NORTH BY LATE TONIGHT. POPS WERE DELAYED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TONIGHT...KEEPING ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST DRY
THIS EVENING AND HOLDING POPS OUT OF THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATED VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY ALOFT SO WE ALSO DROPPED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER.

SUNDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EVENTUALLY DROP INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
SHOULD GET ONE MORE DRY DAY. CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGER
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH COLDER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN QUIETER FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.

SOMEWHAT QUIET PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT SOME
LINGERING/SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WE TRANSITION TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW WILL START TO EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY...WITH LEAD S/WV IMPULSES EJECTING NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS WEST FOR
THESE FEATURES. DID TRIM DOWN PRECIP CHANCES EAST WHICH WILL BE
MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC HIGH. THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL/DEFINITE
WITH MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THIS FEATURE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE ROBUST AS WELL
AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH A HEALTHY SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MODELS STILL PORTRAY WEAK INSTABILITY ADVECTING NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE LOW...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST AND MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY EVENING AREA WIDE. CAPE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL SO
SCALED BACK FROM LIKELY THUNDER TO ISOLATED.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTH INTO CANADA.

BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS BRING A POTENT
EMBEDDED S/WV SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. ANOTHER QUIETER PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH STRONG CAA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KGFK-KBIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH WINDS SWITCHING
NORTH/NORTHEAST IN ITS WAKE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS SLOWLY DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF MVFR
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHWESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 272022
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
322 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO OFFER A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION WITH
EACH RUN.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM JUST SOUTH OF BISMARCK
NORTHEAST TO AROUND DEVILS LAKE. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS TO
THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND FAR
WEST CENTRAL. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE NORTHWEST WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADY OR EVEN FALLING.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTH ALONG A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE. IN ADDITION...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...ENHANCING THE MID LEVEL
FORCING IN THE FAR NORTH BY LATE TONIGHT. POPS WERE DELAYED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TONIGHT...KEEPING ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST DRY
THIS EVENING AND HOLDING POPS OUT OF THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATED VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY ALOFT SO WE ALSO DROPPED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER.

SUNDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EVENTUALLY DROP INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
SHOULD GET ONE MORE DRY DAY. CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGER
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH COLDER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN QUIETER FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.

SOMEWHAT QUIET PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT SOME
LINGERING/SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WE TRANSITION TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW WILL START TO EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY...WITH LEAD S/WV IMPULSES EJECTING NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS WEST FOR
THESE FEATURES. DID TRIM DOWN PRECIP CHANCES EAST WHICH WILL BE
MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC HIGH. THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL/DEFINITE
WITH MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THIS FEATURE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE ROBUST AS WELL
AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH A HEALTHY SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MODELS STILL PORTRAY WEAK INSTABILITY ADVECTING NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE LOW...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST AND MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY EVENING AREA WIDE. CAPE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL SO
SCALED BACK FROM LIKELY THUNDER TO ISOLATED.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTH INTO CANADA.

BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS BRING A POTENT
EMBEDDED S/WV SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. ANOTHER QUIETER PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH STRONG CAA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM AROUND KBIS-KDVL WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AT KISN...KDIK AND KMOT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
AT KBIS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. AT KJMS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TURN NORTHEAST TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT KISN KDIK AND KMOT
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18 UTC AT KBIS AND
KJMS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH









000
FXUS63 KBIS 272022
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
322 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO OFFER A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION WITH
EACH RUN.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM JUST SOUTH OF BISMARCK
NORTHEAST TO AROUND DEVILS LAKE. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS TO
THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND FAR
WEST CENTRAL. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE NORTHWEST WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADY OR EVEN FALLING.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTH ALONG A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE. IN ADDITION...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...ENHANCING THE MID LEVEL
FORCING IN THE FAR NORTH BY LATE TONIGHT. POPS WERE DELAYED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TONIGHT...KEEPING ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST DRY
THIS EVENING AND HOLDING POPS OUT OF THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATED VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY ALOFT SO WE ALSO DROPPED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER.

SUNDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EVENTUALLY DROP INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
SHOULD GET ONE MORE DRY DAY. CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGER
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH COLDER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN QUIETER FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.

SOMEWHAT QUIET PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT SOME
LINGERING/SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WE TRANSITION TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW WILL START TO EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY...WITH LEAD S/WV IMPULSES EJECTING NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS WEST FOR
THESE FEATURES. DID TRIM DOWN PRECIP CHANCES EAST WHICH WILL BE
MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC HIGH. THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL/DEFINITE
WITH MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THIS FEATURE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE ROBUST AS WELL
AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH A HEALTHY SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MODELS STILL PORTRAY WEAK INSTABILITY ADVECTING NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE LOW...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST AND MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY EVENING AREA WIDE. CAPE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL SO
SCALED BACK FROM LIKELY THUNDER TO ISOLATED.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTH INTO CANADA.

BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS BRING A POTENT
EMBEDDED S/WV SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. ANOTHER QUIETER PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH STRONG CAA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM AROUND KBIS-KDVL WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AT KISN...KDIK AND KMOT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
AT KBIS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. AT KJMS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TURN NORTHEAST TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT KISN KDIK AND KMOT
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18 UTC AT KBIS AND
KJMS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH










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