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000
FXUS63 KBIS 221133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND ADD A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE LATEST
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY`S WEATHER FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS USHER IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE ONLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL BE
THE WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER. BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST WAVE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS. WILL SLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS
FOR SATURDAY BY TRIMMING THEIR NORTHERN EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO
WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED.

MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS IN PART LEADS TO HIGHER QPF
FROM THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A MODEL
BLEND FOR SUNDAY...WHICH STILL HOLDS ONTO FAIRLY HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE NORTH MAY NOT SEE MUCH
RAIN...EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE PLACES THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THEY FORECAST 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS IN THE NORTH
WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH DEPICTED.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT A LARGE H5
TROUGH AGAIN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED BY AFTERNOON...AND COULD BECOME GUSTY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 24 KTS. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...CK





000
FXUS63 KBIS 221133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND ADD A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE LATEST
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY`S WEATHER FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS USHER IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE ONLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL BE
THE WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER. BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST WAVE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS. WILL SLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS
FOR SATURDAY BY TRIMMING THEIR NORTHERN EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO
WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED.

MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS IN PART LEADS TO HIGHER QPF
FROM THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A MODEL
BLEND FOR SUNDAY...WHICH STILL HOLDS ONTO FAIRLY HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE NORTH MAY NOT SEE MUCH
RAIN...EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE PLACES THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THEY FORECAST 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS IN THE NORTH
WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH DEPICTED.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT A LARGE H5
TROUGH AGAIN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED BY AFTERNOON...AND COULD BECOME GUSTY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 24 KTS. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...CK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 221133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND ADD A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE LATEST
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY`S WEATHER FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS USHER IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE ONLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL BE
THE WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER. BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST WAVE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS. WILL SLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS
FOR SATURDAY BY TRIMMING THEIR NORTHERN EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO
WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED.

MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS IN PART LEADS TO HIGHER QPF
FROM THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A MODEL
BLEND FOR SUNDAY...WHICH STILL HOLDS ONTO FAIRLY HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE NORTH MAY NOT SEE MUCH
RAIN...EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE PLACES THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THEY FORECAST 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS IN THE NORTH
WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH DEPICTED.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT A LARGE H5
TROUGH AGAIN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED BY AFTERNOON...AND COULD BECOME GUSTY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 24 KTS. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...CK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 221133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND ADD A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE LATEST
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY`S WEATHER FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS USHER IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE ONLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL BE
THE WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER. BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST WAVE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS. WILL SLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS
FOR SATURDAY BY TRIMMING THEIR NORTHERN EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO
WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED.

MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS IN PART LEADS TO HIGHER QPF
FROM THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A MODEL
BLEND FOR SUNDAY...WHICH STILL HOLDS ONTO FAIRLY HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE NORTH MAY NOT SEE MUCH
RAIN...EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE PLACES THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THEY FORECAST 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS IN THE NORTH
WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH DEPICTED.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT A LARGE H5
TROUGH AGAIN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED BY AFTERNOON...AND COULD BECOME GUSTY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 24 KTS. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...CK





000
FXUS63 KBIS 220859
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
359 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY`S WEATHER FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS USHER IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE ONLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL BE
THE WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER. BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST WAVE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS. WILL SLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS
FOR SATURDAY BY TRIMMING THEIR NORTHERN EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO
WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED.

MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS IN PART LEADS TO HIGHER QPF
FROM THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A MODEL
BLEND FOR SUNDAY...WHICH STILL HOLDS ONTO FAIRLY HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE NORTH MAY NOT SEE MUCH
RAIN...EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE PLACES THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THEY FORECAST 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS IN THE NORTH
WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH DEPICTED.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT A LARGE H5
TROUGH AGAIN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KBIS 220859
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
359 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY`S WEATHER FOR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS USHER IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE ONLY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL BE
THE WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER. BY THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD.

TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST WAVE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS. WILL SLOW THE INTRODUCTION OF POPS
FOR SATURDAY BY TRIMMING THEIR NORTHERN EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO
WILL KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED.

MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS IN PART LEADS TO HIGHER QPF
FROM THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A MODEL
BLEND FOR SUNDAY...WHICH STILL HOLDS ONTO FAIRLY HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE NORTH MAY NOT SEE MUCH
RAIN...EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE LARGE H5 TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE PLACES THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THEY FORECAST 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS IN THE NORTH
WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH DEPICTED.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT A LARGE H5
TROUGH AGAIN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 220519
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1219 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO UPDATES WITH THE MID EVENING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SUBTLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY ERODE/MIGRATE BACK EAST TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. OVERALL CHANGES
WERE MINIMAL WITH MAIN EDITS TO TWEAK NEAR TERM SKY COVER A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE H500 RIDGE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A REX BLOCK WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN QUIET
AND MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FRIDAY THE SOUTHWEST US UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
KICK OUT AND SEND SOME SHORTWAVE RIPPLES NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. MODELS THEN BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER FOR FRIDAY WILL STILL BE DRY. SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AS A SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAYS HIGH WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 70S EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST WHERE INCREASING CLOUDS
AND AN H8 THERMAL TROUGH WILL HOLD TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUED TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
MAIN FEATURES AND RESULTANT TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL.
THE NAM WAS AGAIN THE OUTLIER AND GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS TO DOWNPLAY
THE NAM.

THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES TODAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES...INTENSIFY...EMERGE
INTO THE PLAINS...THEN LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS DEPICT THE FIRST OF MANY
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT SHOULD REACH NORTH DAKOTA. NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF ANY RESULTANT SURFACE LOWS...NAMELY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THERE IS A HINT THAT THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF AN INVERTED LOW OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF SD/NE/KS MAY
NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
LARGER CAPE AND STRONGER BULK SHEAR ON SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS MAY BE A DAY OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE
ENERGY AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND BEGINNING TO EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

3-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL ESTIMATES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TO 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES FOLLOWING
THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KBIS 220519
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1219 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO UPDATES WITH THE MID EVENING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SUBTLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY ERODE/MIGRATE BACK EAST TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. OVERALL CHANGES
WERE MINIMAL WITH MAIN EDITS TO TWEAK NEAR TERM SKY COVER A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE H500 RIDGE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A REX BLOCK WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN QUIET
AND MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FRIDAY THE SOUTHWEST US UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
KICK OUT AND SEND SOME SHORTWAVE RIPPLES NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. MODELS THEN BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER FOR FRIDAY WILL STILL BE DRY. SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AS A SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAYS HIGH WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 70S EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST WHERE INCREASING CLOUDS
AND AN H8 THERMAL TROUGH WILL HOLD TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUED TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
MAIN FEATURES AND RESULTANT TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL.
THE NAM WAS AGAIN THE OUTLIER AND GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS TO DOWNPLAY
THE NAM.

THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES TODAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES...INTENSIFY...EMERGE
INTO THE PLAINS...THEN LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS DEPICT THE FIRST OF MANY
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT SHOULD REACH NORTH DAKOTA. NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF ANY RESULTANT SURFACE LOWS...NAMELY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THERE IS A HINT THAT THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF AN INVERTED LOW OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF SD/NE/KS MAY
NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
LARGER CAPE AND STRONGER BULK SHEAR ON SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS MAY BE A DAY OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE
ENERGY AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND BEGINNING TO EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

3-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL ESTIMATES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TO 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES FOLLOWING
THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 220519
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1219 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO UPDATES WITH THE MID EVENING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SUBTLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY ERODE/MIGRATE BACK EAST TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. OVERALL CHANGES
WERE MINIMAL WITH MAIN EDITS TO TWEAK NEAR TERM SKY COVER A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE H500 RIDGE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A REX BLOCK WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN QUIET
AND MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FRIDAY THE SOUTHWEST US UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
KICK OUT AND SEND SOME SHORTWAVE RIPPLES NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. MODELS THEN BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER FOR FRIDAY WILL STILL BE DRY. SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AS A SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAYS HIGH WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 70S EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST WHERE INCREASING CLOUDS
AND AN H8 THERMAL TROUGH WILL HOLD TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUED TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
MAIN FEATURES AND RESULTANT TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL.
THE NAM WAS AGAIN THE OUTLIER AND GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS TO DOWNPLAY
THE NAM.

THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES TODAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES...INTENSIFY...EMERGE
INTO THE PLAINS...THEN LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS DEPICT THE FIRST OF MANY
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT SHOULD REACH NORTH DAKOTA. NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF ANY RESULTANT SURFACE LOWS...NAMELY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THERE IS A HINT THAT THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF AN INVERTED LOW OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF SD/NE/KS MAY
NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
LARGER CAPE AND STRONGER BULK SHEAR ON SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS MAY BE A DAY OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE
ENERGY AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND BEGINNING TO EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

3-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL ESTIMATES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TO 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES FOLLOWING
THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KBIS 220519
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1219 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO UPDATES WITH THE MID EVENING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SUBTLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY ERODE/MIGRATE BACK EAST TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. OVERALL CHANGES
WERE MINIMAL WITH MAIN EDITS TO TWEAK NEAR TERM SKY COVER A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE H500 RIDGE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A REX BLOCK WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN QUIET
AND MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FRIDAY THE SOUTHWEST US UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
KICK OUT AND SEND SOME SHORTWAVE RIPPLES NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. MODELS THEN BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER FOR FRIDAY WILL STILL BE DRY. SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AS A SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAYS HIGH WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 70S EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST WHERE INCREASING CLOUDS
AND AN H8 THERMAL TROUGH WILL HOLD TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUED TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
MAIN FEATURES AND RESULTANT TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL.
THE NAM WAS AGAIN THE OUTLIER AND GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS TO DOWNPLAY
THE NAM.

THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES TODAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES...INTENSIFY...EMERGE
INTO THE PLAINS...THEN LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS DEPICT THE FIRST OF MANY
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT SHOULD REACH NORTH DAKOTA. NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF ANY RESULTANT SURFACE LOWS...NAMELY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THERE IS A HINT THAT THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF AN INVERTED LOW OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF SD/NE/KS MAY
NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
LARGER CAPE AND STRONGER BULK SHEAR ON SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS MAY BE A DAY OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE
ENERGY AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND BEGINNING TO EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

3-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL ESTIMATES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TO 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES FOLLOWING
THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 220238
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO UPDATES WITH THE MID EVENING FORECAST ISSUANCE.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SUBTLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY ERODE/MIGRATE BACK EAST TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. OVERALL CHANGES
WERE MINIMAL WITH MAIN EDITS TO TWEAK NEAR TERM SKY COVER A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE H500 RIDGE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A REX BLOCK WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN QUIET
AND MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FRIDAY THE SOUTHWEST US UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
KICK OUT AND SEND SOME SHORTWAVE RIPPLES NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. MODELS THEN BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER FOR FRIDAY WILL STILL BE DRY. SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AS A SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAYS HIGH WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 70S EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST WHERE INCREASING CLOUDS
AND AN H8 THERMAL TROUGH WILL HOLD TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUED TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
MAIN FEATURES AND RESULTANT TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL.
THE NAM WAS AGAIN THE OUTLIER AND GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS TO DOWNPLAY
THE NAM.

THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES TODAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES...INTENSIFY...EMERGE
INTO THE PLAINS...THEN LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS DEPICT THE FIRST OF MANY
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT SHOULD REACH NORTH DAKOTA. NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF ANY RESULTANT SURFACE LOWS...NAMELY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THERE IS A HINT THAT THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF AN INVERTED LOW OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF SD/NE/KS MAY
NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
LARGER CAPE AND STRONGER BULK SHEAR ON SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS MAY BE A DAY OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE
ENERGY AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND BEGINNING TO EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

3-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL ESTIMATES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TO 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES FOLLOWING
THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF FORECAST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 220238
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO UPDATES WITH THE MID EVENING FORECAST ISSUANCE.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SUBTLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY ERODE/MIGRATE BACK EAST TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. OVERALL CHANGES
WERE MINIMAL WITH MAIN EDITS TO TWEAK NEAR TERM SKY COVER A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE H500 RIDGE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A REX BLOCK WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN QUIET
AND MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FRIDAY THE SOUTHWEST US UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
KICK OUT AND SEND SOME SHORTWAVE RIPPLES NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. MODELS THEN BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER FOR FRIDAY WILL STILL BE DRY. SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AS A SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAYS HIGH WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 70S EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST WHERE INCREASING CLOUDS
AND AN H8 THERMAL TROUGH WILL HOLD TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUED TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
MAIN FEATURES AND RESULTANT TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL.
THE NAM WAS AGAIN THE OUTLIER AND GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS TO DOWNPLAY
THE NAM.

THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES TODAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES...INTENSIFY...EMERGE
INTO THE PLAINS...THEN LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS DEPICT THE FIRST OF MANY
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT SHOULD REACH NORTH DAKOTA. NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF ANY RESULTANT SURFACE LOWS...NAMELY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THERE IS A HINT THAT THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF AN INVERTED LOW OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF SD/NE/KS MAY
NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
LARGER CAPE AND STRONGER BULK SHEAR ON SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS MAY BE A DAY OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE
ENERGY AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND BEGINNING TO EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

3-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL ESTIMATES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TO 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES FOLLOWING
THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF FORECAST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 212322
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SUBTLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY ERODE/MIGRATE BACK EAST TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. OVERALL CHANGES
WERE MINIMAL WITH MAIN EDITS TO TWEAK NEAR TERM SKY COVER A BIT.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE H500 RIDGE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A REX BLOCK WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN QUIET
AND MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FRIDAY THE SOUTHWEST US UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
KICK OUT AND SEND SOME SHORTWAVE RIPPLES NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. MODELS THEN BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER FOR FRIDAY WILL STILL BE DRY. SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AS A SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAYS HIGH WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 70S EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST WHERE INCREASING CLOUDS
AND AN H8 THERMAL TROUGH WILL HOLD TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUED TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
MAIN FEATURES AND RESULTANT TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL.
THE NAM WAS AGAIN THE OUTLIER AND GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS TO DOWNPLAY
THE NAM.

THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES TODAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES...INTENSIFY...EMERGE
INTO THE PLAINS...THEN LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS DEPICT THE FIRST OF MANY
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT SHOULD REACH NORTH DAKOTA. NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF ANY RESULTANT SURFACE LOWS...NAMELY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THERE IS A HINT THAT THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF AN INVERTED LOW OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF SD/NE/KS MAY
NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
LARGER CAPE AND STRONGER BULK SHEAR ON SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS MAY BE A DAY OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE
ENERGY AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND BEGINNING TO EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

3-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL ESTIMATES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TO 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES FOLLOWING
THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF FORECAST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 212322
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SUBTLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY ERODE/MIGRATE BACK EAST TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. OVERALL CHANGES
WERE MINIMAL WITH MAIN EDITS TO TWEAK NEAR TERM SKY COVER A BIT.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE H500 RIDGE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A REX BLOCK WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN QUIET
AND MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FRIDAY THE SOUTHWEST US UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
KICK OUT AND SEND SOME SHORTWAVE RIPPLES NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. MODELS THEN BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER FOR FRIDAY WILL STILL BE DRY. SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AS A SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAYS HIGH WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 70S EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST WHERE INCREASING CLOUDS
AND AN H8 THERMAL TROUGH WILL HOLD TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUED TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
MAIN FEATURES AND RESULTANT TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL.
THE NAM WAS AGAIN THE OUTLIER AND GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS TO DOWNPLAY
THE NAM.

THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES TODAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES...INTENSIFY...EMERGE
INTO THE PLAINS...THEN LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS DEPICT THE FIRST OF MANY
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT SHOULD REACH NORTH DAKOTA. NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF ANY RESULTANT SURFACE LOWS...NAMELY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THERE IS A HINT THAT THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF AN INVERTED LOW OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF SD/NE/KS MAY
NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
LARGER CAPE AND STRONGER BULK SHEAR ON SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS MAY BE A DAY OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE
ENERGY AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND BEGINNING TO EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

3-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL ESTIMATES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TO 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES FOLLOWING
THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF FORECAST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 212322
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SUBTLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY ERODE/MIGRATE BACK EAST TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. OVERALL CHANGES
WERE MINIMAL WITH MAIN EDITS TO TWEAK NEAR TERM SKY COVER A BIT.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE H500 RIDGE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A REX BLOCK WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN QUIET
AND MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FRIDAY THE SOUTHWEST US UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
KICK OUT AND SEND SOME SHORTWAVE RIPPLES NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. MODELS THEN BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER FOR FRIDAY WILL STILL BE DRY. SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AS A SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAYS HIGH WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 70S EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST WHERE INCREASING CLOUDS
AND AN H8 THERMAL TROUGH WILL HOLD TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUED TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
MAIN FEATURES AND RESULTANT TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL.
THE NAM WAS AGAIN THE OUTLIER AND GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS TO DOWNPLAY
THE NAM.

THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES TODAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES...INTENSIFY...EMERGE
INTO THE PLAINS...THEN LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS DEPICT THE FIRST OF MANY
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT SHOULD REACH NORTH DAKOTA. NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF ANY RESULTANT SURFACE LOWS...NAMELY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THERE IS A HINT THAT THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF AN INVERTED LOW OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF SD/NE/KS MAY
NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
LARGER CAPE AND STRONGER BULK SHEAR ON SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS MAY BE A DAY OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE
ENERGY AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND BEGINNING TO EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

3-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL ESTIMATES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TO 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES FOLLOWING
THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF FORECAST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 212322
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SUBTLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY ERODE/MIGRATE BACK EAST TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. OVERALL CHANGES
WERE MINIMAL WITH MAIN EDITS TO TWEAK NEAR TERM SKY COVER A BIT.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE H500 RIDGE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A REX BLOCK WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN QUIET
AND MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FRIDAY THE SOUTHWEST US UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
KICK OUT AND SEND SOME SHORTWAVE RIPPLES NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. MODELS THEN BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER FOR FRIDAY WILL STILL BE DRY. SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AS A SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAYS HIGH WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 70S EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST WHERE INCREASING CLOUDS
AND AN H8 THERMAL TROUGH WILL HOLD TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUED TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
MAIN FEATURES AND RESULTANT TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL.
THE NAM WAS AGAIN THE OUTLIER AND GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS TO DOWNPLAY
THE NAM.

THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES TODAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES...INTENSIFY...EMERGE
INTO THE PLAINS...THEN LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS DEPICT THE FIRST OF MANY
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT SHOULD REACH NORTH DAKOTA. NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF ANY RESULTANT SURFACE LOWS...NAMELY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THERE IS A HINT THAT THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF AN INVERTED LOW OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF SD/NE/KS MAY
NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
LARGER CAPE AND STRONGER BULK SHEAR ON SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS MAY BE A DAY OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE
ENERGY AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND BEGINNING TO EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

3-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL ESTIMATES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TO 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES FOLLOWING
THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF FORECAST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 212042
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
342 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE H500 RIDGE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A REX BLOCK WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN QUIET
AND MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FRIDAY THE SOUTHWEST US UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
KICK OUT AND SEND SOME SHORTWAVE RIPPLES NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. MODELS THEN BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER FOR FRIDAY WILL STILL BE DRY. SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AS A SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAYS HIGH WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 70S EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST WHERE INCREASING CLOUDS
AND AN H8 THERMAL TROUGH WILL HOLD TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUED TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
MAIN FEATURES AND RESULTANT TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL.
THE NAM WAS AGAIN THE OUTLIER AND GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS TO DOWNPLAY
THE NAM.

THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES TODAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES...INTENSIFY...EMERGE
INTO THE PLAINS...THEN LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS DEPICT THE FIRST OF MANY
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT SHOULD REACH NORTH DAKOTA. NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF ANY RESULTANT SURFACE LOWS...NAMELY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THERE IS A HINT THAT THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF AN INVERTED LOW OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF SD/NE/KS MAY
NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
LARGER CAPE AND STRONGER BULK SHEAR ON SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS MAY BE A DAY OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE
ENERGY AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND BEGINNING TO EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

3-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL ESTIMATES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TO 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES FOLLOWING
THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 18Z FORECAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 212042
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
342 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE H500 RIDGE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A REX BLOCK WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN QUIET
AND MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FRIDAY THE SOUTHWEST US UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
KICK OUT AND SEND SOME SHORTWAVE RIPPLES NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. MODELS THEN BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER FOR FRIDAY WILL STILL BE DRY. SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AS A SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAYS HIGH WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 70S EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST WHERE INCREASING CLOUDS
AND AN H8 THERMAL TROUGH WILL HOLD TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUED TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
MAIN FEATURES AND RESULTANT TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL.
THE NAM WAS AGAIN THE OUTLIER AND GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS TO DOWNPLAY
THE NAM.

THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES TODAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES...INTENSIFY...EMERGE
INTO THE PLAINS...THEN LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS DEPICT THE FIRST OF MANY
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT SHOULD REACH NORTH DAKOTA. NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF ANY RESULTANT SURFACE LOWS...NAMELY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THERE IS A HINT THAT THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF AN INVERTED LOW OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF SD/NE/KS MAY
NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
LARGER CAPE AND STRONGER BULK SHEAR ON SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS MAY BE A DAY OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE
ENERGY AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND BEGINNING TO EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

3-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL ESTIMATES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TO 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES FOLLOWING
THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 18Z FORECAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 212042
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
342 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE H500 RIDGE OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A REX BLOCK WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN QUIET
AND MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FRIDAY THE SOUTHWEST US UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
KICK OUT AND SEND SOME SHORTWAVE RIPPLES NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. MODELS THEN BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER FOR FRIDAY WILL STILL BE DRY. SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AS A SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAYS HIGH WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 70S EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST WHERE INCREASING CLOUDS
AND AN H8 THERMAL TROUGH WILL HOLD TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUED TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
MAIN FEATURES AND RESULTANT TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL.
THE NAM WAS AGAIN THE OUTLIER AND GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS TO DOWNPLAY
THE NAM.

THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES TODAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES...INTENSIFY...EMERGE
INTO THE PLAINS...THEN LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS DEPICT THE FIRST OF MANY
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT SHOULD REACH NORTH DAKOTA. NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF ANY RESULTANT SURFACE LOWS...NAMELY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THERE IS A HINT THAT THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF AN INVERTED LOW OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF SD/NE/KS MAY
NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
LARGER CAPE AND STRONGER BULK SHEAR ON SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS MAY BE A DAY OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE
ENERGY AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND BEGINNING TO EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

3-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL ESTIMATES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TO 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES FOLLOWING
THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 18Z FORECAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 211738
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1238 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH CENTRAL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.
WILL BUMP HIGHS TO 75 TO 80 FROM THE VAN HOOK ARM OF LAKE
SAKAKAWEA SOUTHEAST THROUGH BISMARCK. THIS AREA LIES JUST ALONG
THE NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. NO WEATHER AND JUST A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH MAINLY
JUST A WIND SHIFT FROM A NORTHWEST TO A NORTHEAST WIND FROM A
MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WEST OF THIS WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST TO WEST. HIGH TODAY A BIT WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...MID 70S FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE WEST CENTRAL. A BIT
COOLER SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. SUNNY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS
ITS WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME CLOUDS ARE NOTED
BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH HAVE BEEN ADDRESSED IN FORECAST UPDATE.
EXPECT MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO ERODE LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TODAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AND MILD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE
TWO EFFECTS. FIRST...IT WILL PROVIDE A SHIFT IN THE WINDS FROM
WESTERLY TO EASTERLY. SECOND...A BIT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING MAY
FURTHER BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID...AND POTENTIALLY UPPER
70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY UNDER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS AND BROADENS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND OPEN UP TO
START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
REGION...THOUGH MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
TIMING OF SOME SUBTLE FEATURES. WITH THAT SAID...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT WEST INTO EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. VFR ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 211738
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1238 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH CENTRAL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.
WILL BUMP HIGHS TO 75 TO 80 FROM THE VAN HOOK ARM OF LAKE
SAKAKAWEA SOUTHEAST THROUGH BISMARCK. THIS AREA LIES JUST ALONG
THE NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. NO WEATHER AND JUST A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH MAINLY
JUST A WIND SHIFT FROM A NORTHWEST TO A NORTHEAST WIND FROM A
MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WEST OF THIS WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST TO WEST. HIGH TODAY A BIT WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...MID 70S FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE WEST CENTRAL. A BIT
COOLER SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. SUNNY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS
ITS WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME CLOUDS ARE NOTED
BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH HAVE BEEN ADDRESSED IN FORECAST UPDATE.
EXPECT MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO ERODE LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TODAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AND MILD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE
TWO EFFECTS. FIRST...IT WILL PROVIDE A SHIFT IN THE WINDS FROM
WESTERLY TO EASTERLY. SECOND...A BIT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING MAY
FURTHER BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID...AND POTENTIALLY UPPER
70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY UNDER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS AND BROADENS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND OPEN UP TO
START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
REGION...THOUGH MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
TIMING OF SOME SUBTLE FEATURES. WITH THAT SAID...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT WEST INTO EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. VFR ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 211446
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
946 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. NO WEATHER AND JUST A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH MAINLY
JUST A WIND SHIFT FROM A NORTHWEST TO A NORTHEAST WIND FROM A
MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WEST OF THIS WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST TO WEST. HIGH TODAY A BIT WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...MID 70S FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE WEST CENTRAL. A BIT
COOLER SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. SUNNY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS
ITS WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME CLOUDS ARE NOTED
BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH HAVE BEEN ADDRESSED IN FORECAST UPDATE.
EXPECT MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO ERODE LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TODAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AND MILD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE
TWO EFFECTS. FIRST...IT WILL PROVIDE A SHIFT IN THE WINDS FROM
WESTERLY TO EASTERLY. SECOND...A BIT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING MAY
FURTHER BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID...AND POTENTIALLY UPPER
70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY UNDER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS AND BROADENS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND OPEN UP TO
START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
REGION...THOUGH MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
TIMING OF SOME SUBTLE FEATURES. WITH THAT SAID...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. VFR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 211446
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
946 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. NO WEATHER AND JUST A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH MAINLY
JUST A WIND SHIFT FROM A NORTHWEST TO A NORTHEAST WIND FROM A
MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WEST OF THIS WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST TO WEST. HIGH TODAY A BIT WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...MID 70S FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE WEST CENTRAL. A BIT
COOLER SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. SUNNY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS
ITS WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME CLOUDS ARE NOTED
BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH HAVE BEEN ADDRESSED IN FORECAST UPDATE.
EXPECT MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO ERODE LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TODAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AND MILD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE
TWO EFFECTS. FIRST...IT WILL PROVIDE A SHIFT IN THE WINDS FROM
WESTERLY TO EASTERLY. SECOND...A BIT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING MAY
FURTHER BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID...AND POTENTIALLY UPPER
70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY UNDER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS AND BROADENS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND OPEN UP TO
START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
REGION...THOUGH MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
TIMING OF SOME SUBTLE FEATURES. WITH THAT SAID...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. VFR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 211446
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
946 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. NO WEATHER AND JUST A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH MAINLY
JUST A WIND SHIFT FROM A NORTHWEST TO A NORTHEAST WIND FROM A
MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WEST OF THIS WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST TO WEST. HIGH TODAY A BIT WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...MID 70S FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE WEST CENTRAL. A BIT
COOLER SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. SUNNY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS
ITS WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME CLOUDS ARE NOTED
BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH HAVE BEEN ADDRESSED IN FORECAST UPDATE.
EXPECT MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO ERODE LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TODAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AND MILD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE
TWO EFFECTS. FIRST...IT WILL PROVIDE A SHIFT IN THE WINDS FROM
WESTERLY TO EASTERLY. SECOND...A BIT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING MAY
FURTHER BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID...AND POTENTIALLY UPPER
70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY UNDER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS AND BROADENS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND OPEN UP TO
START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
REGION...THOUGH MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
TIMING OF SOME SUBTLE FEATURES. WITH THAT SAID...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. VFR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 211446
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
946 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. NO WEATHER AND JUST A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH MAINLY
JUST A WIND SHIFT FROM A NORTHWEST TO A NORTHEAST WIND FROM A
MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WEST OF THIS WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST TO WEST. HIGH TODAY A BIT WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...MID 70S FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE WEST CENTRAL. A BIT
COOLER SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. SUNNY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS
ITS WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME CLOUDS ARE NOTED
BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH HAVE BEEN ADDRESSED IN FORECAST UPDATE.
EXPECT MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO ERODE LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TODAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AND MILD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE
TWO EFFECTS. FIRST...IT WILL PROVIDE A SHIFT IN THE WINDS FROM
WESTERLY TO EASTERLY. SECOND...A BIT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING MAY
FURTHER BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID...AND POTENTIALLY UPPER
70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY UNDER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS AND BROADENS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND OPEN UP TO
START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
REGION...THOUGH MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
TIMING OF SOME SUBTLE FEATURES. WITH THAT SAID...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. VFR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 211122
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS
ITS WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME CLOUDS ARE NOTED
BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH HAVE BEEN ADDRESSED IN FORECAST UPDATE.
EXPECT MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO ERODE LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TODAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AND MILD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE
TWO EFFECTS. FIRST...IT WILL PROVIDE A SHIFT IN THE WINDS FROM
WESTERLY TO EASTERLY. SECOND...A BIT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING MAY
FURTHER BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID...AND POTENTIALLY UPPER
70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY UNDER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS AND BROADENS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND OPEN UP TO
START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
REGION...THOUGH MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
TIMING OF SOME SUBTLE FEATURES. WITH THAT SAID...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KBIS 211122
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS
ITS WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME CLOUDS ARE NOTED
BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH HAVE BEEN ADDRESSED IN FORECAST UPDATE.
EXPECT MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO ERODE LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TODAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AND MILD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE
TWO EFFECTS. FIRST...IT WILL PROVIDE A SHIFT IN THE WINDS FROM
WESTERLY TO EASTERLY. SECOND...A BIT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING MAY
FURTHER BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID...AND POTENTIALLY UPPER
70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY UNDER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS AND BROADENS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND OPEN UP TO
START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
REGION...THOUGH MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
TIMING OF SOME SUBTLE FEATURES. WITH THAT SAID...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KBIS 211122
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS
ITS WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME CLOUDS ARE NOTED
BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH HAVE BEEN ADDRESSED IN FORECAST UPDATE.
EXPECT MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO ERODE LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TODAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AND MILD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE
TWO EFFECTS. FIRST...IT WILL PROVIDE A SHIFT IN THE WINDS FROM
WESTERLY TO EASTERLY. SECOND...A BIT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING MAY
FURTHER BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID...AND POTENTIALLY UPPER
70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY UNDER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS AND BROADENS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND OPEN UP TO
START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
REGION...THOUGH MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
TIMING OF SOME SUBTLE FEATURES. WITH THAT SAID...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 210840
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TODAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AND MILD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE
TWO EFFECTS. FIRST...IT WILL PROVIDE A SHIFT IN THE WINDS FROM
WESTERLY TO EASTERLY. SECOND...A BIT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING MAY
FURTHER BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID...AND POTENTIALLY UPPER
70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY UNDER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS AND BROADENS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND OPEN UP TO
START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
REGION...THOUGH MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
TIMING OF SOME SUBTLE FEATURES. WITH THAT SAID...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KBIS 210840
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TODAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AND MILD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE
TWO EFFECTS. FIRST...IT WILL PROVIDE A SHIFT IN THE WINDS FROM
WESTERLY TO EASTERLY. SECOND...A BIT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING MAY
FURTHER BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID...AND POTENTIALLY UPPER
70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY UNDER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS AND BROADENS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND OPEN UP TO
START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
REGION...THOUGH MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
TIMING OF SOME SUBTLE FEATURES. WITH THAT SAID...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KBIS 210840
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TODAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AND MILD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE
TWO EFFECTS. FIRST...IT WILL PROVIDE A SHIFT IN THE WINDS FROM
WESTERLY TO EASTERLY. SECOND...A BIT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING MAY
FURTHER BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID...AND POTENTIALLY UPPER
70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY UNDER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS AND BROADENS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND OPEN UP TO
START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
REGION...THOUGH MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
TIMING OF SOME SUBTLE FEATURES. WITH THAT SAID...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 210514
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1214 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FOR THIS UPDATE. BROUGHT TEMPERATURES IN
LINE WITH LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS. THIS GENERALLY RESULTED IN A
DECREASE OF OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND AN
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. CLOUDS TRYING TO PUSH NORTH RUNNING
INTO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL SD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
NORTH AND EAST...MOSTLY CLEAR WEST AND SOUTH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
EVENING UPDATE ISSUANCE.

WEAK/SUBTLE SFC BOUNDARY (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA) WILL SLOWLY MEANDER/DRIFT WEST THEN
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONLY WEATHER IMPACTS WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE REFLECTED IN SFC WIND FIELDS AND PERHAPS SOME
CLOUDS AT 8-11FT AGL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN H500 REX BLOCK PATTERN WAS ORIENTED
FROM WESTERN CANADA TO THE SOUTHWEST US. ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/US AN
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED FROST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT BUT OVERALL WARMER TEMPERATURES
SO DO NOT THINK IT WARRANTS A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT. BASED ON
NAM/GFS H850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES OR
A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY NORTHEAST. ACROSS
THE WEST H850 TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY BY ABOUT 3 TO 4
DEGREES...SO LOOKS LIKE CLOSER TO MID 70S WEST THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES WITH A DRY AND WARM
FORECAST. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE BEYOND FRIDAY. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO CLOSED UPPER LOWS...THE INITIAL
CIRCULATING AT 39N/125W...AND THE SECOND CIRCULATION AT 44N/137W. AS
THESE UPPER LOWS DROP INTO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE COMING DAYS...THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE PATH AND TIMING OF
THE INITIAL 700MB-500MB CLOSED UPPER LOW FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE
GFS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL MOVE THE CLOSED SYSTEM INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY 00Z SUN...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS
THE LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SECONDARY CLOSED LOW
MENTIONED ABOVE FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PER ECMWF
IS FARTHEST WEST...THE GFS IS FARTHEST EAST...WITH THE CANADIAN NEAR
THE MIDDLE. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SLATED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL...DESPITE A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS PUTS IN QUESTION THE AREAL
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT FOR SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY AREAS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY AND THEN EXPAND SLOWLY NORTH SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND SEE
HOW THINGS ALIGN ONCE MODELS COME TOGETHER ON A MORE DECISIVE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 210514
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1214 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FOR THIS UPDATE. BROUGHT TEMPERATURES IN
LINE WITH LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS. THIS GENERALLY RESULTED IN A
DECREASE OF OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND AN
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. CLOUDS TRYING TO PUSH NORTH RUNNING
INTO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL SD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
NORTH AND EAST...MOSTLY CLEAR WEST AND SOUTH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
EVENING UPDATE ISSUANCE.

WEAK/SUBTLE SFC BOUNDARY (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA) WILL SLOWLY MEANDER/DRIFT WEST THEN
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONLY WEATHER IMPACTS WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE REFLECTED IN SFC WIND FIELDS AND PERHAPS SOME
CLOUDS AT 8-11FT AGL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN H500 REX BLOCK PATTERN WAS ORIENTED
FROM WESTERN CANADA TO THE SOUTHWEST US. ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/US AN
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED FROST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT BUT OVERALL WARMER TEMPERATURES
SO DO NOT THINK IT WARRANTS A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT. BASED ON
NAM/GFS H850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES OR
A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY NORTHEAST. ACROSS
THE WEST H850 TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY BY ABOUT 3 TO 4
DEGREES...SO LOOKS LIKE CLOSER TO MID 70S WEST THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES WITH A DRY AND WARM
FORECAST. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE BEYOND FRIDAY. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO CLOSED UPPER LOWS...THE INITIAL
CIRCULATING AT 39N/125W...AND THE SECOND CIRCULATION AT 44N/137W. AS
THESE UPPER LOWS DROP INTO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE COMING DAYS...THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE PATH AND TIMING OF
THE INITIAL 700MB-500MB CLOSED UPPER LOW FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE
GFS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL MOVE THE CLOSED SYSTEM INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY 00Z SUN...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS
THE LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SECONDARY CLOSED LOW
MENTIONED ABOVE FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PER ECMWF
IS FARTHEST WEST...THE GFS IS FARTHEST EAST...WITH THE CANADIAN NEAR
THE MIDDLE. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SLATED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL...DESPITE A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS PUTS IN QUESTION THE AREAL
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT FOR SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY AREAS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY AND THEN EXPAND SLOWLY NORTH SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND SEE
HOW THINGS ALIGN ONCE MODELS COME TOGETHER ON A MORE DECISIVE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KBIS 210514
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1214 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FOR THIS UPDATE. BROUGHT TEMPERATURES IN
LINE WITH LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS. THIS GENERALLY RESULTED IN A
DECREASE OF OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND AN
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. CLOUDS TRYING TO PUSH NORTH RUNNING
INTO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL SD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
NORTH AND EAST...MOSTLY CLEAR WEST AND SOUTH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
EVENING UPDATE ISSUANCE.

WEAK/SUBTLE SFC BOUNDARY (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA) WILL SLOWLY MEANDER/DRIFT WEST THEN
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONLY WEATHER IMPACTS WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE REFLECTED IN SFC WIND FIELDS AND PERHAPS SOME
CLOUDS AT 8-11FT AGL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN H500 REX BLOCK PATTERN WAS ORIENTED
FROM WESTERN CANADA TO THE SOUTHWEST US. ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/US AN
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED FROST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT BUT OVERALL WARMER TEMPERATURES
SO DO NOT THINK IT WARRANTS A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT. BASED ON
NAM/GFS H850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES OR
A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY NORTHEAST. ACROSS
THE WEST H850 TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY BY ABOUT 3 TO 4
DEGREES...SO LOOKS LIKE CLOSER TO MID 70S WEST THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES WITH A DRY AND WARM
FORECAST. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE BEYOND FRIDAY. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO CLOSED UPPER LOWS...THE INITIAL
CIRCULATING AT 39N/125W...AND THE SECOND CIRCULATION AT 44N/137W. AS
THESE UPPER LOWS DROP INTO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE COMING DAYS...THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE PATH AND TIMING OF
THE INITIAL 700MB-500MB CLOSED UPPER LOW FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE
GFS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL MOVE THE CLOSED SYSTEM INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY 00Z SUN...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS
THE LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SECONDARY CLOSED LOW
MENTIONED ABOVE FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PER ECMWF
IS FARTHEST WEST...THE GFS IS FARTHEST EAST...WITH THE CANADIAN NEAR
THE MIDDLE. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SLATED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL...DESPITE A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS PUTS IN QUESTION THE AREAL
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT FOR SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY AREAS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY AND THEN EXPAND SLOWLY NORTH SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND SEE
HOW THINGS ALIGN ONCE MODELS COME TOGETHER ON A MORE DECISIVE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KBIS 210514
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1214 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FOR THIS UPDATE. BROUGHT TEMPERATURES IN
LINE WITH LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS. THIS GENERALLY RESULTED IN A
DECREASE OF OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND AN
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. CLOUDS TRYING TO PUSH NORTH RUNNING
INTO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL SD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
NORTH AND EAST...MOSTLY CLEAR WEST AND SOUTH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
EVENING UPDATE ISSUANCE.

WEAK/SUBTLE SFC BOUNDARY (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA) WILL SLOWLY MEANDER/DRIFT WEST THEN
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONLY WEATHER IMPACTS WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE REFLECTED IN SFC WIND FIELDS AND PERHAPS SOME
CLOUDS AT 8-11FT AGL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN H500 REX BLOCK PATTERN WAS ORIENTED
FROM WESTERN CANADA TO THE SOUTHWEST US. ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/US AN
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED FROST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT BUT OVERALL WARMER TEMPERATURES
SO DO NOT THINK IT WARRANTS A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT. BASED ON
NAM/GFS H850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES OR
A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY NORTHEAST. ACROSS
THE WEST H850 TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY BY ABOUT 3 TO 4
DEGREES...SO LOOKS LIKE CLOSER TO MID 70S WEST THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES WITH A DRY AND WARM
FORECAST. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE BEYOND FRIDAY. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO CLOSED UPPER LOWS...THE INITIAL
CIRCULATING AT 39N/125W...AND THE SECOND CIRCULATION AT 44N/137W. AS
THESE UPPER LOWS DROP INTO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE COMING DAYS...THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE PATH AND TIMING OF
THE INITIAL 700MB-500MB CLOSED UPPER LOW FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE
GFS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL MOVE THE CLOSED SYSTEM INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY 00Z SUN...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS
THE LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SECONDARY CLOSED LOW
MENTIONED ABOVE FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PER ECMWF
IS FARTHEST WEST...THE GFS IS FARTHEST EAST...WITH THE CANADIAN NEAR
THE MIDDLE. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SLATED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL...DESPITE A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS PUTS IN QUESTION THE AREAL
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT FOR SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY AREAS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY AND THEN EXPAND SLOWLY NORTH SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND SEE
HOW THINGS ALIGN ONCE MODELS COME TOGETHER ON A MORE DECISIVE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 210236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. CLOUDS TRYING TO PUSH NORTH RUNNING
INTO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL SD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
NORTH AND EAST...MOSTLY CLEAR WEST AND SOUTH.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
EVENING UPDATE ISSUANCE.

WEAK/SUBTLE SFC BOUNDARY (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA) WILL SLOWLY MEANDER/DRIFT WEST THEN
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONLY WEATHER IMPACTS WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE REFLECTED IN SFC WIND FIELDS AND PERHAPS SOME
CLOUDS AT 8-11FT AGL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN H500 REX BLOCK PATTERN WAS ORIENTED
FROM WESTERN CANADA TO THE SOUTHWEST US. ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/US AN
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED FROST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT BUT OVERALL WARMER TEMPERATURES
SO DO NOT THINK IT WARRANTS A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT. BASED ON
NAM/GFS H850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES OR
A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY NORTHEAST. ACROSS
THE WEST H850 TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY BY ABOUT 3 TO 4
DEGREES...SO LOOKS LIKE CLOSER TO MID 70S WEST THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES WITH A DRY AND WARM
FORECAST. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE BEYOND FRIDAY. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO CLOSED UPPER LOWS...THE INITIAL
CIRCULATING AT 39N/125W...AND THE SECOND CIRCULATION AT 44N/137W. AS
THESE UPPER LOWS DROP INTO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE COMING DAYS...THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE PATH AND TIMING OF
THE INITIAL 700MB-500MB CLOSED UPPER LOW FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE
GFS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL MOVE THE CLOSED SYSTEM INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY 00Z SUN...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS
THE LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SECONDARY CLOSED LOW
MENTIONED ABOVE FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PER ECMWF
IS FARTHEST WEST...THE GFS IS FARTHEST EAST...WITH THE CANADIAN NEAR
THE MIDDLE. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SLATED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL...DESPITE A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS PUTS IN QUESTION THE AREAL
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT FOR SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY AREAS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY AND THEN EXPAND SLOWLY NORTH SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND SEE
HOW THINGS ALIGN ONCE MODELS COME TOGETHER ON A MORE DECISIVE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 210236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. CLOUDS TRYING TO PUSH NORTH RUNNING
INTO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL SD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
NORTH AND EAST...MOSTLY CLEAR WEST AND SOUTH.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
EVENING UPDATE ISSUANCE.

WEAK/SUBTLE SFC BOUNDARY (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA) WILL SLOWLY MEANDER/DRIFT WEST THEN
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONLY WEATHER IMPACTS WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE REFLECTED IN SFC WIND FIELDS AND PERHAPS SOME
CLOUDS AT 8-11FT AGL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN H500 REX BLOCK PATTERN WAS ORIENTED
FROM WESTERN CANADA TO THE SOUTHWEST US. ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/US AN
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED FROST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT BUT OVERALL WARMER TEMPERATURES
SO DO NOT THINK IT WARRANTS A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT. BASED ON
NAM/GFS H850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES OR
A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY NORTHEAST. ACROSS
THE WEST H850 TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY BY ABOUT 3 TO 4
DEGREES...SO LOOKS LIKE CLOSER TO MID 70S WEST THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES WITH A DRY AND WARM
FORECAST. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE BEYOND FRIDAY. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO CLOSED UPPER LOWS...THE INITIAL
CIRCULATING AT 39N/125W...AND THE SECOND CIRCULATION AT 44N/137W. AS
THESE UPPER LOWS DROP INTO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE COMING DAYS...THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE PATH AND TIMING OF
THE INITIAL 700MB-500MB CLOSED UPPER LOW FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE
GFS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL MOVE THE CLOSED SYSTEM INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY 00Z SUN...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS
THE LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SECONDARY CLOSED LOW
MENTIONED ABOVE FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PER ECMWF
IS FARTHEST WEST...THE GFS IS FARTHEST EAST...WITH THE CANADIAN NEAR
THE MIDDLE. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SLATED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL...DESPITE A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS PUTS IN QUESTION THE AREAL
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT FOR SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY AREAS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY AND THEN EXPAND SLOWLY NORTH SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND SEE
HOW THINGS ALIGN ONCE MODELS COME TOGETHER ON A MORE DECISIVE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 210236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. CLOUDS TRYING TO PUSH NORTH RUNNING
INTO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL SD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
NORTH AND EAST...MOSTLY CLEAR WEST AND SOUTH.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
EVENING UPDATE ISSUANCE.

WEAK/SUBTLE SFC BOUNDARY (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA) WILL SLOWLY MEANDER/DRIFT WEST THEN
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONLY WEATHER IMPACTS WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE REFLECTED IN SFC WIND FIELDS AND PERHAPS SOME
CLOUDS AT 8-11FT AGL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN H500 REX BLOCK PATTERN WAS ORIENTED
FROM WESTERN CANADA TO THE SOUTHWEST US. ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/US AN
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED FROST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT BUT OVERALL WARMER TEMPERATURES
SO DO NOT THINK IT WARRANTS A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT. BASED ON
NAM/GFS H850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES OR
A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY NORTHEAST. ACROSS
THE WEST H850 TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY BY ABOUT 3 TO 4
DEGREES...SO LOOKS LIKE CLOSER TO MID 70S WEST THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES WITH A DRY AND WARM
FORECAST. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE BEYOND FRIDAY. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO CLOSED UPPER LOWS...THE INITIAL
CIRCULATING AT 39N/125W...AND THE SECOND CIRCULATION AT 44N/137W. AS
THESE UPPER LOWS DROP INTO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE COMING DAYS...THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE PATH AND TIMING OF
THE INITIAL 700MB-500MB CLOSED UPPER LOW FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE
GFS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL MOVE THE CLOSED SYSTEM INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY 00Z SUN...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS
THE LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SECONDARY CLOSED LOW
MENTIONED ABOVE FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PER ECMWF
IS FARTHEST WEST...THE GFS IS FARTHEST EAST...WITH THE CANADIAN NEAR
THE MIDDLE. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SLATED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL...DESPITE A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS PUTS IN QUESTION THE AREAL
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT FOR SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY AREAS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY AND THEN EXPAND SLOWLY NORTH SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND SEE
HOW THINGS ALIGN ONCE MODELS COME TOGETHER ON A MORE DECISIVE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 210236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. CLOUDS TRYING TO PUSH NORTH RUNNING
INTO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL SD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
NORTH AND EAST...MOSTLY CLEAR WEST AND SOUTH.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
EVENING UPDATE ISSUANCE.

WEAK/SUBTLE SFC BOUNDARY (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA) WILL SLOWLY MEANDER/DRIFT WEST THEN
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONLY WEATHER IMPACTS WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE REFLECTED IN SFC WIND FIELDS AND PERHAPS SOME
CLOUDS AT 8-11FT AGL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN H500 REX BLOCK PATTERN WAS ORIENTED
FROM WESTERN CANADA TO THE SOUTHWEST US. ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/US AN
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED FROST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT BUT OVERALL WARMER TEMPERATURES
SO DO NOT THINK IT WARRANTS A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT. BASED ON
NAM/GFS H850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES OR
A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY NORTHEAST. ACROSS
THE WEST H850 TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY BY ABOUT 3 TO 4
DEGREES...SO LOOKS LIKE CLOSER TO MID 70S WEST THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES WITH A DRY AND WARM
FORECAST. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE BEYOND FRIDAY. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO CLOSED UPPER LOWS...THE INITIAL
CIRCULATING AT 39N/125W...AND THE SECOND CIRCULATION AT 44N/137W. AS
THESE UPPER LOWS DROP INTO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE COMING DAYS...THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE PATH AND TIMING OF
THE INITIAL 700MB-500MB CLOSED UPPER LOW FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE
GFS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL MOVE THE CLOSED SYSTEM INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY 00Z SUN...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS
THE LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SECONDARY CLOSED LOW
MENTIONED ABOVE FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PER ECMWF
IS FARTHEST WEST...THE GFS IS FARTHEST EAST...WITH THE CANADIAN NEAR
THE MIDDLE. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SLATED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL...DESPITE A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS PUTS IN QUESTION THE AREAL
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT FOR SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY AREAS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY AND THEN EXPAND SLOWLY NORTH SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND SEE
HOW THINGS ALIGN ONCE MODELS COME TOGETHER ON A MORE DECISIVE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 202327
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
627 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
EVENING UPDATE ISSUANCE.

WEAK/SUBTLE SFC BOUNDARY (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA) WILL SLOWLY MEANDER/DRIFT WEST THEN
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONLY WEATHER IMPACTS WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE REFLECTED IN SFC WIND FIELDS AND PERHAPS SOME
CLOUDS AT 8-11FT AGL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN H500 REX BLOCK PATTERN WAS ORIENTED
FROM WESTERN CANADA TO THE SOUTHWEST US. ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/US AN
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED FROST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT BUT OVERALL WARMER TEMPERATURES
SO DO NOT THINK IT WARRANTS A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT. BASED ON
NAM/GFS H850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES OR
A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY NORTHEAST. ACROSS
THE WEST H850 TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY BY ABOUT 3 TO 4
DEGREES...SO LOOKS LIKE CLOSER TO MID 70S WEST THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES WITH A DRY AND WARM
FORECAST. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE BEYOND FRIDAY. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO CLOSED UPPER LOWS...THE INITIAL
CIRCULATING AT 39N/125W...AND THE SECOND CIRCULATION AT 44N/137W. AS
THESE UPPER LOWS DROP INTO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE COMING DAYS...THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE PATH AND TIMING OF
THE INITIAL 700MB-500MB CLOSED UPPER LOW FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE
GFS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL MOVE THE CLOSED SYSTEM INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY 00Z SUN...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS
THE LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SECONDARY CLOSED LOW
MENTIONED ABOVE FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PER ECMWF
IS FARTHEST WEST...THE GFS IS FARTHEST EAST...WITH THE CANADIAN NEAR
THE MIDDLE. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SLATED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL...DESPITE A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS PUTS IN QUESTION THE AREAL
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT FOR SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY AREAS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY AND THEN EXPAND SLOWLY NORTH SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND SEE
HOW THINGS ALIGN ONCE MODELS COME TOGETHER ON A MORE DECISIVE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 202327
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
627 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
EVENING UPDATE ISSUANCE.

WEAK/SUBTLE SFC BOUNDARY (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA) WILL SLOWLY MEANDER/DRIFT WEST THEN
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONLY WEATHER IMPACTS WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE REFLECTED IN SFC WIND FIELDS AND PERHAPS SOME
CLOUDS AT 8-11FT AGL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN H500 REX BLOCK PATTERN WAS ORIENTED
FROM WESTERN CANADA TO THE SOUTHWEST US. ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/US AN
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED FROST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT BUT OVERALL WARMER TEMPERATURES
SO DO NOT THINK IT WARRANTS A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT. BASED ON
NAM/GFS H850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES OR
A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY NORTHEAST. ACROSS
THE WEST H850 TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY BY ABOUT 3 TO 4
DEGREES...SO LOOKS LIKE CLOSER TO MID 70S WEST THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES WITH A DRY AND WARM
FORECAST. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE BEYOND FRIDAY. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO CLOSED UPPER LOWS...THE INITIAL
CIRCULATING AT 39N/125W...AND THE SECOND CIRCULATION AT 44N/137W. AS
THESE UPPER LOWS DROP INTO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE COMING DAYS...THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE PATH AND TIMING OF
THE INITIAL 700MB-500MB CLOSED UPPER LOW FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE
GFS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL MOVE THE CLOSED SYSTEM INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY 00Z SUN...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS
THE LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SECONDARY CLOSED LOW
MENTIONED ABOVE FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PER ECMWF
IS FARTHEST WEST...THE GFS IS FARTHEST EAST...WITH THE CANADIAN NEAR
THE MIDDLE. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SLATED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL...DESPITE A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS PUTS IN QUESTION THE AREAL
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT FOR SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY AREAS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY AND THEN EXPAND SLOWLY NORTH SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND SEE
HOW THINGS ALIGN ONCE MODELS COME TOGETHER ON A MORE DECISIVE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 202327
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
627 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
EVENING UPDATE ISSUANCE.

WEAK/SUBTLE SFC BOUNDARY (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA) WILL SLOWLY MEANDER/DRIFT WEST THEN
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONLY WEATHER IMPACTS WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE REFLECTED IN SFC WIND FIELDS AND PERHAPS SOME
CLOUDS AT 8-11FT AGL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN H500 REX BLOCK PATTERN WAS ORIENTED
FROM WESTERN CANADA TO THE SOUTHWEST US. ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/US AN
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED FROST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT BUT OVERALL WARMER TEMPERATURES
SO DO NOT THINK IT WARRANTS A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT. BASED ON
NAM/GFS H850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES OR
A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY NORTHEAST. ACROSS
THE WEST H850 TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY BY ABOUT 3 TO 4
DEGREES...SO LOOKS LIKE CLOSER TO MID 70S WEST THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES WITH A DRY AND WARM
FORECAST. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE BEYOND FRIDAY. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO CLOSED UPPER LOWS...THE INITIAL
CIRCULATING AT 39N/125W...AND THE SECOND CIRCULATION AT 44N/137W. AS
THESE UPPER LOWS DROP INTO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE COMING DAYS...THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE PATH AND TIMING OF
THE INITIAL 700MB-500MB CLOSED UPPER LOW FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE
GFS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL MOVE THE CLOSED SYSTEM INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY 00Z SUN...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS
THE LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SECONDARY CLOSED LOW
MENTIONED ABOVE FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PER ECMWF
IS FARTHEST WEST...THE GFS IS FARTHEST EAST...WITH THE CANADIAN NEAR
THE MIDDLE. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SLATED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL...DESPITE A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS PUTS IN QUESTION THE AREAL
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT FOR SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY AREAS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY AND THEN EXPAND SLOWLY NORTH SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND SEE
HOW THINGS ALIGN ONCE MODELS COME TOGETHER ON A MORE DECISIVE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 202327
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
627 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
EVENING UPDATE ISSUANCE.

WEAK/SUBTLE SFC BOUNDARY (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED WAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA) WILL SLOWLY MEANDER/DRIFT WEST THEN
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONLY WEATHER IMPACTS WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE REFLECTED IN SFC WIND FIELDS AND PERHAPS SOME
CLOUDS AT 8-11FT AGL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN H500 REX BLOCK PATTERN WAS ORIENTED
FROM WESTERN CANADA TO THE SOUTHWEST US. ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/US AN
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED FROST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT BUT OVERALL WARMER TEMPERATURES
SO DO NOT THINK IT WARRANTS A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT. BASED ON
NAM/GFS H850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES OR
A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY NORTHEAST. ACROSS
THE WEST H850 TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY BY ABOUT 3 TO 4
DEGREES...SO LOOKS LIKE CLOSER TO MID 70S WEST THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES WITH A DRY AND WARM
FORECAST. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE BEYOND FRIDAY. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO CLOSED UPPER LOWS...THE INITIAL
CIRCULATING AT 39N/125W...AND THE SECOND CIRCULATION AT 44N/137W. AS
THESE UPPER LOWS DROP INTO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE COMING DAYS...THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE PATH AND TIMING OF
THE INITIAL 700MB-500MB CLOSED UPPER LOW FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE
GFS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL MOVE THE CLOSED SYSTEM INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY 00Z SUN...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS
THE LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SECONDARY CLOSED LOW
MENTIONED ABOVE FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PER ECMWF
IS FARTHEST WEST...THE GFS IS FARTHEST EAST...WITH THE CANADIAN NEAR
THE MIDDLE. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SLATED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL...DESPITE A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS PUTS IN QUESTION THE AREAL
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT FOR SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY AREAS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY AND THEN EXPAND SLOWLY NORTH SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND SEE
HOW THINGS ALIGN ONCE MODELS COME TOGETHER ON A MORE DECISIVE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 202005
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN H500 REX BLOCK PATTERN WAS ORIENTED
FROM WESTERN CANADA TO THE SOUTHWEST US. ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/US AN
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED FROST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT BUT OVERALL WARMER TEMPERATURES
SO DO NOT THINK IT WARRANTS A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT. BASED ON
NAM/GFS H850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES OR
A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY NORTHEAST. ACROSS
THE WEST H850 TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY BY ABOUT 3 TO 4
DEGREES...SO LOOKS LIKE CLOSER TO MID 70S WEST THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES WITH A DRY AND WARM
FORECAST. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE BEYOND FRIDAY. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO CLOSED UPPER LOWS...THE INITIAL
CIRCULATING AT 39N/125W...AND THE SECOND CIRCULATION AT 44N/137W. AS
THESE UPPER LOWS DROP INTO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE COMING DAYS...THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE PATH AND TIMING OF
THE INITIAL 700MB-500MB CLOSED UPPER LOW FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE
GFS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL MOVE THE CLOSED SYSTEM INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY 00Z SUN...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS
THE LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SECONDARY CLOSED LOW
MENTIONED ABOVE FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PER ECMWF
IS FARTHEST WEST...THE GFS IS FARTHEST EAST...WITH THE CANADIAN NEAR
THE MIDDLE. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SLATED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL...DESPITE A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS PUTS IN QUESTION THE AREAL
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT FOR SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY AREAS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY AND THEN EXPAND SLOWLY NORTH SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND SEE
HOW THINGS ALIGN ONCE MODELS COME TOGETHER ON A MORE DECISIVE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VFR
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 202005
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN H500 REX BLOCK PATTERN WAS ORIENTED
FROM WESTERN CANADA TO THE SOUTHWEST US. ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/US AN
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED FROST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT BUT OVERALL WARMER TEMPERATURES
SO DO NOT THINK IT WARRANTS A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT. BASED ON
NAM/GFS H850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES OR
A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY NORTHEAST. ACROSS
THE WEST H850 TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY BY ABOUT 3 TO 4
DEGREES...SO LOOKS LIKE CLOSER TO MID 70S WEST THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES WITH A DRY AND WARM
FORECAST. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE BEYOND FRIDAY. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO CLOSED UPPER LOWS...THE INITIAL
CIRCULATING AT 39N/125W...AND THE SECOND CIRCULATION AT 44N/137W. AS
THESE UPPER LOWS DROP INTO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE COMING DAYS...THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE PATH AND TIMING OF
THE INITIAL 700MB-500MB CLOSED UPPER LOW FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE
GFS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL MOVE THE CLOSED SYSTEM INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY 00Z SUN...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS
THE LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SECONDARY CLOSED LOW
MENTIONED ABOVE FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PER ECMWF
IS FARTHEST WEST...THE GFS IS FARTHEST EAST...WITH THE CANADIAN NEAR
THE MIDDLE. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SLATED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL...DESPITE A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS PUTS IN QUESTION THE AREAL
COVERAGE/PLACEMENT FOR SHOWERS AND INSTABILITY AREAS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY AND THEN EXPAND SLOWLY NORTH SUNDAY. IN TERMS OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND SEE
HOW THINGS ALIGN ONCE MODELS COME TOGETHER ON A MORE DECISIVE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VFR
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 201746
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1246 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

GOOD MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE CLOSE TO 70
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH INTO THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEYS.
WINDS ALSO A BIT STRONGER...10 TO 20 MPH NORTH CENTRAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WILL END THE FROST ADVISORY. OTHERWISE SUNNY AND DRY WITH LIGHT
WINDS 10 MPH OR LESS TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

QUIET WEATHER WITH CHILLY MORNING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE
ONLY UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY...AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE ON SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AS A
BLOCKING PATTERN...LOCATED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. AND
CANADA...STALEMATES THE FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN POINT IS THAT IT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN POSSIBLY REMAINING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY. VFR ALL TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 201746
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1246 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

GOOD MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE CLOSE TO 70
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH INTO THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEYS.
WINDS ALSO A BIT STRONGER...10 TO 20 MPH NORTH CENTRAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WILL END THE FROST ADVISORY. OTHERWISE SUNNY AND DRY WITH LIGHT
WINDS 10 MPH OR LESS TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

QUIET WEATHER WITH CHILLY MORNING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE
ONLY UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY...AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE ON SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AS A
BLOCKING PATTERN...LOCATED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. AND
CANADA...STALEMATES THE FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN POINT IS THAT IT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN POSSIBLY REMAINING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY. VFR ALL TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 201746
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1246 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

GOOD MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE CLOSE TO 70
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH INTO THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEYS.
WINDS ALSO A BIT STRONGER...10 TO 20 MPH NORTH CENTRAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WILL END THE FROST ADVISORY. OTHERWISE SUNNY AND DRY WITH LIGHT
WINDS 10 MPH OR LESS TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

QUIET WEATHER WITH CHILLY MORNING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE
ONLY UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY...AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE ON SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AS A
BLOCKING PATTERN...LOCATED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. AND
CANADA...STALEMATES THE FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN POINT IS THAT IT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN POSSIBLY REMAINING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY. VFR ALL TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 201746
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1246 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

GOOD MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE CLOSE TO 70
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH INTO THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER VALLEYS.
WINDS ALSO A BIT STRONGER...10 TO 20 MPH NORTH CENTRAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WILL END THE FROST ADVISORY. OTHERWISE SUNNY AND DRY WITH LIGHT
WINDS 10 MPH OR LESS TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

QUIET WEATHER WITH CHILLY MORNING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE
ONLY UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY...AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE ON SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AS A
BLOCKING PATTERN...LOCATED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. AND
CANADA...STALEMATES THE FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN POINT IS THAT IT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN POSSIBLY REMAINING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY. VFR ALL TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 201403
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
903 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WILL END THE FROST ADVISORY. OTHERWISE SUNNY AND DRY WITH LIGHT
WINDS 10 MPH OR LESS TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

QUIET WEATHER WITH CHILLY MORNING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE
ONLY UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY...AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE ON SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AS A
BLOCKING PATTERN...LOCATED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. AND
CANADA...STALEMATES THE FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN POINT IS THAT IT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN POSSIBLY REMAINING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 201403
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
903 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WILL END THE FROST ADVISORY. OTHERWISE SUNNY AND DRY WITH LIGHT
WINDS 10 MPH OR LESS TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

QUIET WEATHER WITH CHILLY MORNING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE
ONLY UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY...AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE ON SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AS A
BLOCKING PATTERN...LOCATED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. AND
CANADA...STALEMATES THE FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN POINT IS THAT IT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN POSSIBLY REMAINING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 201109
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
609 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

QUIET WEATHER WITH CHILLY MORNING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE
ONLY UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY...AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE ON SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AS A
BLOCKING PATTERN...LOCATED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. AND
CANADA...STALEMATES THE FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN POINT IS THAT IT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN POSSIBLY REMAINING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AC





000
FXUS63 KBIS 201109
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
609 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

QUIET WEATHER WITH CHILLY MORNING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA. THIS WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE
ONLY UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY...AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE ON SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AS A
BLOCKING PATTERN...LOCATED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. AND
CANADA...STALEMATES THE FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN POINT IS THAT IT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN POSSIBLY REMAINING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AC




000
FXUS63 KBIS 200826
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
326 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY...AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE ON SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AS A
BLOCKING PATTERN...LOCATED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. AND
CANADA...STALEMATES THE FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN POINT IS THAT IT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN POSSIBLY REMAINING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AC





000
FXUS63 KBIS 200826
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
326 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY...AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE CURRENT MODEL PACKAGE ON SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AS A
BLOCKING PATTERN...LOCATED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. AND
CANADA...STALEMATES THE FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN POINT IS THAT IT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN POSSIBLY REMAINING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AC




000
FXUS63 KBIS 200508
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1208 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH...OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. NUDGED LOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS...AND ALSO TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FROST ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL FOR TONIGHT. THE ONLY
CHANGES WERE TO GO WITH WIDESPREAD FROST...INCREASED FROM PATCHY
AND AREAS...AS WE DO HAVE THE ADVISORY POSTED. CLOUD COVER
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH HALF WAS ZEROED OUT DOWN FROM 10
PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
FROST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE PREVALENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKING FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST SOME PARTIAL
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. NOT AS COOL BUT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS 60 TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK/HIGH OVER LOW...
FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 145W/49N...TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE CLOSED LOW...A MID LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN COMES INTO PHASE WITH RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW. THIS PROCESS OCCURS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE NAM12 AND ECMWF TRY TO DEVELOP A
COUPLE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND
POSSIBLE INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850-300MB OMEGA SUPPORTIVE OF ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SHOWERS...BUT WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND A SLIM AREAL COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME....ESPECIALLY WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR NOW AND LET SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS LOOK AT IT AGAIN. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH
SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE
FROM INTERSTATE 94 SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS A SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION...CREEPING NORTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. INSTABILITY OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY LOOKS RATHER WEAK ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTING DIFFERENT
AREAS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE/SHEAR ARE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING IF
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY VIA
A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SUPERBLEND HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND CONCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS...EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AC





000
FXUS63 KBIS 200508
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1208 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH...OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. NUDGED LOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS...AND ALSO TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FROST ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL FOR TONIGHT. THE ONLY
CHANGES WERE TO GO WITH WIDESPREAD FROST...INCREASED FROM PATCHY
AND AREAS...AS WE DO HAVE THE ADVISORY POSTED. CLOUD COVER
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH HALF WAS ZEROED OUT DOWN FROM 10
PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
FROST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE PREVALENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKING FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST SOME PARTIAL
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. NOT AS COOL BUT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS 60 TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK/HIGH OVER LOW...
FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 145W/49N...TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE CLOSED LOW...A MID LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN COMES INTO PHASE WITH RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW. THIS PROCESS OCCURS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE NAM12 AND ECMWF TRY TO DEVELOP A
COUPLE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND
POSSIBLE INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850-300MB OMEGA SUPPORTIVE OF ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SHOWERS...BUT WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND A SLIM AREAL COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME....ESPECIALLY WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR NOW AND LET SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS LOOK AT IT AGAIN. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH
SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE
FROM INTERSTATE 94 SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS A SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION...CREEPING NORTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. INSTABILITY OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY LOOKS RATHER WEAK ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTING DIFFERENT
AREAS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE/SHEAR ARE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING IF
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY VIA
A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SUPERBLEND HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND CONCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS...EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AC




000
FXUS63 KBIS 200508
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1208 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH...OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. NUDGED LOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS...AND ALSO TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FROST ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL FOR TONIGHT. THE ONLY
CHANGES WERE TO GO WITH WIDESPREAD FROST...INCREASED FROM PATCHY
AND AREAS...AS WE DO HAVE THE ADVISORY POSTED. CLOUD COVER
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH HALF WAS ZEROED OUT DOWN FROM 10
PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
FROST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE PREVALENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKING FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST SOME PARTIAL
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. NOT AS COOL BUT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS 60 TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK/HIGH OVER LOW...
FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 145W/49N...TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE CLOSED LOW...A MID LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN COMES INTO PHASE WITH RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW. THIS PROCESS OCCURS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE NAM12 AND ECMWF TRY TO DEVELOP A
COUPLE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND
POSSIBLE INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850-300MB OMEGA SUPPORTIVE OF ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SHOWERS...BUT WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND A SLIM AREAL COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME....ESPECIALLY WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR NOW AND LET SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS LOOK AT IT AGAIN. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH
SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE
FROM INTERSTATE 94 SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS A SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION...CREEPING NORTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. INSTABILITY OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY LOOKS RATHER WEAK ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTING DIFFERENT
AREAS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE/SHEAR ARE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING IF
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY VIA
A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SUPERBLEND HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND CONCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS...EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AC





000
FXUS63 KBIS 200508
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1208 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH...OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. NUDGED LOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS...AND ALSO TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FROST ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL FOR TONIGHT. THE ONLY
CHANGES WERE TO GO WITH WIDESPREAD FROST...INCREASED FROM PATCHY
AND AREAS...AS WE DO HAVE THE ADVISORY POSTED. CLOUD COVER
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH HALF WAS ZEROED OUT DOWN FROM 10
PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
FROST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE PREVALENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKING FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST SOME PARTIAL
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. NOT AS COOL BUT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS 60 TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK/HIGH OVER LOW...
FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 145W/49N...TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE CLOSED LOW...A MID LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN COMES INTO PHASE WITH RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW. THIS PROCESS OCCURS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE NAM12 AND ECMWF TRY TO DEVELOP A
COUPLE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND
POSSIBLE INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850-300MB OMEGA SUPPORTIVE OF ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SHOWERS...BUT WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND A SLIM AREAL COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME....ESPECIALLY WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR NOW AND LET SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS LOOK AT IT AGAIN. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH
SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE
FROM INTERSTATE 94 SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS A SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION...CREEPING NORTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. INSTABILITY OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY LOOKS RATHER WEAK ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTING DIFFERENT
AREAS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE/SHEAR ARE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING IF
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY VIA
A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SUPERBLEND HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND CONCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS...EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AC




000
FXUS63 KBIS 200249
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. NUDGED LOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS...AND ALSO TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FROST ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL FOR TONIGHT. THE ONLY
CHANGES WERE TO GO WITH WIDESPREAD FROST...INCREASED FROM PATCHY
AND AREAS...AS WE DO HAVE THE ADVISORY POSTED. CLOUD COVER
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH HALF WAS ZEROED OUT DOWN FROM 10
PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
FROST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE PREVALENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKING FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST SOME PARTIAL
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. NOT AS COOL BUT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS 60 TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK/HIGH OVER LOW...
FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 145W/49N...TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE CLOSED LOW...A MID LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN COMES INTO PHASE WITH RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW. THIS PROCESS OCCURS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE NAM12 AND ECMWF TRY TO DEVELOP A
COUPLE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND
POSSIBLE INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850-300MB OMEGA SUPPORTIVE OF ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SHOWERS...BUT WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND A SLIM AREAL COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME....ESPECIALLY WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR NOW AND LET SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS LOOK AT IT AGAIN. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH
SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE
FROM INTERSTATE 94 SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS A SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION...CREEPING NORTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. INSTABILITY OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY LOOKS RATHER WEAK ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTING DIFFERENT
AREAS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE/SHEAR ARE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING IF
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY VIA
A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SUPERBLEND HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND CONCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
VFR FLYING WEATHER.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM
MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH/JPM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JPM/ZH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 200249
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. NUDGED LOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS...AND ALSO TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FROST ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL FOR TONIGHT. THE ONLY
CHANGES WERE TO GO WITH WIDESPREAD FROST...INCREASED FROM PATCHY
AND AREAS...AS WE DO HAVE THE ADVISORY POSTED. CLOUD COVER
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH HALF WAS ZEROED OUT DOWN FROM 10
PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
FROST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE PREVALENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKING FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST SOME PARTIAL
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. NOT AS COOL BUT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS 60 TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK/HIGH OVER LOW...
FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 145W/49N...TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE CLOSED LOW...A MID LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN COMES INTO PHASE WITH RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW. THIS PROCESS OCCURS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE NAM12 AND ECMWF TRY TO DEVELOP A
COUPLE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND
POSSIBLE INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850-300MB OMEGA SUPPORTIVE OF ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SHOWERS...BUT WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND A SLIM AREAL COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME....ESPECIALLY WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR NOW AND LET SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS LOOK AT IT AGAIN. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH
SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE
FROM INTERSTATE 94 SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS A SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION...CREEPING NORTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. INSTABILITY OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY LOOKS RATHER WEAK ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTING DIFFERENT
AREAS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE/SHEAR ARE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING IF
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY VIA
A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SUPERBLEND HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND CONCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
VFR FLYING WEATHER.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM
MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH/JPM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JPM/ZH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 200249
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. NUDGED LOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS...AND ALSO TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FROST ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL FOR TONIGHT. THE ONLY
CHANGES WERE TO GO WITH WIDESPREAD FROST...INCREASED FROM PATCHY
AND AREAS...AS WE DO HAVE THE ADVISORY POSTED. CLOUD COVER
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH HALF WAS ZEROED OUT DOWN FROM 10
PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
FROST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE PREVALENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKING FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST SOME PARTIAL
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. NOT AS COOL BUT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS 60 TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK/HIGH OVER LOW...
FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 145W/49N...TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE CLOSED LOW...A MID LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN COMES INTO PHASE WITH RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW. THIS PROCESS OCCURS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE NAM12 AND ECMWF TRY TO DEVELOP A
COUPLE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND
POSSIBLE INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850-300MB OMEGA SUPPORTIVE OF ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SHOWERS...BUT WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND A SLIM AREAL COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME....ESPECIALLY WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR NOW AND LET SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS LOOK AT IT AGAIN. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH
SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE
FROM INTERSTATE 94 SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS A SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION...CREEPING NORTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. INSTABILITY OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY LOOKS RATHER WEAK ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTING DIFFERENT
AREAS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE/SHEAR ARE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING IF
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY VIA
A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SUPERBLEND HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND CONCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
VFR FLYING WEATHER.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM
MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH/JPM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JPM/ZH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 200249
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. NUDGED LOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS...AND ALSO TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FROST ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL FOR TONIGHT. THE ONLY
CHANGES WERE TO GO WITH WIDESPREAD FROST...INCREASED FROM PATCHY
AND AREAS...AS WE DO HAVE THE ADVISORY POSTED. CLOUD COVER
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH HALF WAS ZEROED OUT DOWN FROM 10
PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
FROST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE PREVALENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKING FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST SOME PARTIAL
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. NOT AS COOL BUT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS 60 TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK/HIGH OVER LOW...
FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 145W/49N...TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE CLOSED LOW...A MID LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN COMES INTO PHASE WITH RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW. THIS PROCESS OCCURS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE NAM12 AND ECMWF TRY TO DEVELOP A
COUPLE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND
POSSIBLE INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850-300MB OMEGA SUPPORTIVE OF ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SHOWERS...BUT WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND A SLIM AREAL COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME....ESPECIALLY WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR NOW AND LET SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS LOOK AT IT AGAIN. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH
SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE
FROM INTERSTATE 94 SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS A SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION...CREEPING NORTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. INSTABILITY OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY LOOKS RATHER WEAK ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTING DIFFERENT
AREAS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE/SHEAR ARE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING IF
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY VIA
A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SUPERBLEND HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND CONCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
VFR FLYING WEATHER.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM
MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH/JPM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JPM/ZH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 192340
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FROST ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL FOR TONIGHT. THE ONLY
CHANGES WERE TO GO WITH WIDESPREAD FROST...INCREASED FROM PATCHY
AND AREAS...AS WE DO HAVE THE ADVISORY POSTED. CLOUD COVER
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH HALF WAS ZEROED OUT DOWN FROM 10
PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
FROST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE PREVALENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKING FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST SOME PARTIAL
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. NOT AS COOL BUT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS 60 TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK/HIGH OVER LOW...
FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 145W/49N...TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE CLOSED LOW...A MID LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN COMES INTO PHASE WITH RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW. THIS PROCESS OCCURS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE NAM12 AND ECMWF TRY TO DEVELOP A
COUPLE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND
POSSIBLE INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850-300MB OMEGA SUPPORTIVE OF ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SHOWERS...BUT WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND A SLIM AREAL COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME....ESPECIALLY WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR NOW AND LET SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS LOOK AT IT AGAIN. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH
SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE
FROM INTERSTATE 94 SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS A SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION...CREEPING NORTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. INSTABILITY OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY LOOKS RATHER WEAK ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTING DIFFERENT
AREAS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE/SHEAR ARE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING IF
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY VIA
A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SUPERBLEND HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND CONCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
VFR FLYING WEATHER.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM
MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JPM/ZH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 192340
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FROST ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL FOR TONIGHT. THE ONLY
CHANGES WERE TO GO WITH WIDESPREAD FROST...INCREASED FROM PATCHY
AND AREAS...AS WE DO HAVE THE ADVISORY POSTED. CLOUD COVER
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH HALF WAS ZEROED OUT DOWN FROM 10
PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
FROST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE PREVALENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKING FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST SOME PARTIAL
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. NOT AS COOL BUT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS 60 TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK/HIGH OVER LOW...
FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 145W/49N...TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE CLOSED LOW...A MID LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN COMES INTO PHASE WITH RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW. THIS PROCESS OCCURS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE NAM12 AND ECMWF TRY TO DEVELOP A
COUPLE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND
POSSIBLE INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850-300MB OMEGA SUPPORTIVE OF ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SHOWERS...BUT WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND A SLIM AREAL COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME....ESPECIALLY WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR NOW AND LET SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS LOOK AT IT AGAIN. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH
SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE
FROM INTERSTATE 94 SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS A SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION...CREEPING NORTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. INSTABILITY OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY LOOKS RATHER WEAK ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTING DIFFERENT
AREAS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE/SHEAR ARE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING IF
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY VIA
A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SUPERBLEND HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND CONCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
VFR FLYING WEATHER.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM
MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JPM/ZH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 192340
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FROST ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL FOR TONIGHT. THE ONLY
CHANGES WERE TO GO WITH WIDESPREAD FROST...INCREASED FROM PATCHY
AND AREAS...AS WE DO HAVE THE ADVISORY POSTED. CLOUD COVER
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH HALF WAS ZEROED OUT DOWN FROM 10
PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
FROST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE PREVALENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKING FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST SOME PARTIAL
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. NOT AS COOL BUT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS 60 TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK/HIGH OVER LOW...
FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 145W/49N...TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE CLOSED LOW...A MID LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN COMES INTO PHASE WITH RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW. THIS PROCESS OCCURS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE NAM12 AND ECMWF TRY TO DEVELOP A
COUPLE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND
POSSIBLE INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850-300MB OMEGA SUPPORTIVE OF ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SHOWERS...BUT WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND A SLIM AREAL COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME....ESPECIALLY WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR NOW AND LET SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS LOOK AT IT AGAIN. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH
SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE
FROM INTERSTATE 94 SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS A SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION...CREEPING NORTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. INSTABILITY OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY LOOKS RATHER WEAK ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTING DIFFERENT
AREAS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE/SHEAR ARE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING IF
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY VIA
A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SUPERBLEND HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND CONCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
VFR FLYING WEATHER.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM
MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JPM/ZH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 192015
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
FROST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE PREVALENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKING FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST SOME PARTIAL
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. NOT AS COOL BUT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS 60 TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK/HIGH OVER LOW...
FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 145W/49N...TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE CLOSED LOW...A MID LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN COMES INTO PHASE WITH RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW. THIS PROCESS OCCURS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE NAM12 AND ECMWF TRY TO DEVELOP A
COUPLE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND
POSSIBLE INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850-300MB OMEGA SUPPORTIVE OF ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SHOWERS...BUT WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND A SLIM AREAL COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME....ESPECIALLY WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR NOW AND LET SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS LOOK AT IT AGAIN. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH
SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. BEST PRECIPIATION CHANCES RESIDE
FROM INTERSTATE 94 SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS A SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION...CREEPING NORTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. INSTABILITY OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY LOOKS RATHER WEAK ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTING DIFFERENT AREAS OF
WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE/SHEAR ARE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING IF THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH. WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPIATION
SOUTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY VIA A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SUPERBLEND HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
CONCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VFR ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM
MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 192015
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
FROST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE PREVALENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKING FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST SOME PARTIAL
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. NOT AS COOL BUT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS 60 TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK/HIGH OVER LOW...
FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 145W/49N...TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE CLOSED LOW...A MID LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN COMES INTO PHASE WITH RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW. THIS PROCESS OCCURS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE NAM12 AND ECMWF TRY TO DEVELOP A
COUPLE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND
POSSIBLE INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850-300MB OMEGA SUPPORTIVE OF ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SHOWERS...BUT WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND A SLIM AREAL COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME....ESPECIALLY WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR NOW AND LET SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS LOOK AT IT AGAIN. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH
SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. BEST PRECIPIATION CHANCES RESIDE
FROM INTERSTATE 94 SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS A SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION...CREEPING NORTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. INSTABILITY OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY LOOKS RATHER WEAK ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTING DIFFERENT AREAS OF
WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE/SHEAR ARE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING IF THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH. WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPIATION
SOUTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY VIA A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SUPERBLEND HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
CONCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VFR ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM
MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 191725
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

SUNNY SKIES LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES SUM UP THE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED THE FORECAST HIGH TO LOWER 60S NORTH
CENTRAL WHERE MINOT AIR FORCE BASE ALREADY SHOWS 57. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 906 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

ONLY UPDATE IS TO END THE FREEZE WARNING. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

ONLY CHANGE WITH THE UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE FOG FROM FORECAST. NO
INDICATIONS OF FOG WITH OBS...SATELLITE OR WEBCAMS. THEREFORE
REMOVED PATCHY FOG FROM FORECAST. OTHERWISE...A COLD MORNING
ACROSS THE STATE WITH A RECORD LOW OF 25 HIT AT BISMARCK. RECENT
OBS HAD TEMPS AS LOW AS 21 AT HAZEN...GLEN ULLIN AND CENTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FOG. CALM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE VALLEYS OF THE JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVERS.

A STATEWIDE FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MID
MORNING TUESDAY...WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS FALLING INTO THE 20S.
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS LOWS DIP INTO THE 30S.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS WITHIN THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE ON SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AS A REX
BLOCKING PATTERN...LOCATED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. AND
CANADA...STALEMATES THE FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS
DEEP UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN CONUS APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES INCREASE WITH QPF OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GFS CONTINUING
ITS TREND OF BEING THE MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTION AND MUCH WETTER ON
SUNDAY THAN ECMWF. FORECAST CONTINUES TO CARRY CHANCE/LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH PART OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. ALSO INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER WITH INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 191725
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

SUNNY SKIES LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES SUM UP THE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED THE FORECAST HIGH TO LOWER 60S NORTH
CENTRAL WHERE MINOT AIR FORCE BASE ALREADY SHOWS 57. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 906 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

ONLY UPDATE IS TO END THE FREEZE WARNING. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

ONLY CHANGE WITH THE UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE FOG FROM FORECAST. NO
INDICATIONS OF FOG WITH OBS...SATELLITE OR WEBCAMS. THEREFORE
REMOVED PATCHY FOG FROM FORECAST. OTHERWISE...A COLD MORNING
ACROSS THE STATE WITH A RECORD LOW OF 25 HIT AT BISMARCK. RECENT
OBS HAD TEMPS AS LOW AS 21 AT HAZEN...GLEN ULLIN AND CENTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FOG. CALM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE VALLEYS OF THE JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVERS.

A STATEWIDE FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MID
MORNING TUESDAY...WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS FALLING INTO THE 20S.
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS LOWS DIP INTO THE 30S.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS WITHIN THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE ON SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AS A REX
BLOCKING PATTERN...LOCATED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. AND
CANADA...STALEMATES THE FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS
DEEP UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN CONUS APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES INCREASE WITH QPF OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GFS CONTINUING
ITS TREND OF BEING THE MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTION AND MUCH WETTER ON
SUNDAY THAN ECMWF. FORECAST CONTINUES TO CARRY CHANCE/LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH PART OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. ALSO INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER WITH INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 191725
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

SUNNY SKIES LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES SUM UP THE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED THE FORECAST HIGH TO LOWER 60S NORTH
CENTRAL WHERE MINOT AIR FORCE BASE ALREADY SHOWS 57. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 906 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

ONLY UPDATE IS TO END THE FREEZE WARNING. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

ONLY CHANGE WITH THE UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE FOG FROM FORECAST. NO
INDICATIONS OF FOG WITH OBS...SATELLITE OR WEBCAMS. THEREFORE
REMOVED PATCHY FOG FROM FORECAST. OTHERWISE...A COLD MORNING
ACROSS THE STATE WITH A RECORD LOW OF 25 HIT AT BISMARCK. RECENT
OBS HAD TEMPS AS LOW AS 21 AT HAZEN...GLEN ULLIN AND CENTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FOG. CALM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE VALLEYS OF THE JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVERS.

A STATEWIDE FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MID
MORNING TUESDAY...WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS FALLING INTO THE 20S.
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS LOWS DIP INTO THE 30S.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS WITHIN THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE ON SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AS A REX
BLOCKING PATTERN...LOCATED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. AND
CANADA...STALEMATES THE FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS
DEEP UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN CONUS APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES INCREASE WITH QPF OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GFS CONTINUING
ITS TREND OF BEING THE MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTION AND MUCH WETTER ON
SUNDAY THAN ECMWF. FORECAST CONTINUES TO CARRY CHANCE/LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH PART OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. ALSO INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER WITH INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...WAA




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