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000
FXUS63 KBIS 220246
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
946 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE PAST HOUR. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD
EAST OVER THE STATE TONIGHT IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED CAPE AHEAD OF
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOTING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER
ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. ITS PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL LAG BEHIND
AND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...DELAYED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ROBUST CAP IN PLACE AS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVERSPREADS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE SHOWALTER INDEX TRENDS NEGATIVE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SOUTHEAST. THIS LAYER ABOVE THE CAP COULD
RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TRIED TO FIT THE POPS WITH THE BEST FORCING FOR LIFT. ENDED UP
FOCUSING ON THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 60S WHICH IS 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE MOUNTAIN
WEST. OF COURSE BEING NEARLY A WEEK WAY...GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY
ON PRECIP CHANCES AND PLACEMENT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE STATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER KDIK. SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 212352
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
652 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. ITS PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL LAG BEHIND
AND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...DELAYED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ROBUST CAP IN PLACE AS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVERSPREADS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE SHOWALTER INDEX TRENDS NEGATIVE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SOUTHEAST. THIS LAYER ABOVE THE CAP COULD
RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TRIED TO FIT THE POPS WITH THE BEST FORCING FOR LIFT. ENDED UP
FOCUSING ON THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 60S WHICH IS 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE MOUNTAIN
WEST. OF COURSE BEING NEARLY A WEEK WAY...GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY
ON PRECIP CHANCES AND PLACEMENT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE STATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER KDIK. SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 212049
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ROBUST CAP IN PLACE AS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVERSPREADS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE SHOWALTER INDEX TRENDS NEGATIVE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SOUTHEAST. THIS LAYER ABOVE THE CAP COULD
RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TRIED TO FIT THE POPS WITH THE BEST FORCING FOR LIFT. ENDED UP
FOCUSING ON THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 60S WHICH IS 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE MOUNTAIN
WEST. OF COURSE BEING NEARLY A WEEK WAY...GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY
ON PRECIP CHANCES AND PLACEMENT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN EASTERN
MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY NOON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST WITH THE
FRONT AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA










000
FXUS63 KBIS 211738
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1238 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SUNNY AND VERY MILD TODAY. BREEZY EAST. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING
WELL WITH NO SIG UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SUNNY AND VERY MILD TODAY WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND. ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL KEEP A STRONG CAP AROUND 2500 FEET AGL. THIS WILL LIMIT
MIXING. STILL...WITH MIN TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY DESPITE
MIXING ISSUE. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AVIATION
EXPECTED. VFR THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 211449
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SUNNY AND VERY MILD TODAY WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND. ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL KEEP A STRONG CAP AROUND 2500 FEET AGL. THIS WILL LIMIT
MIXING. STILL...WITH MIN TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY DESPITE
MIXING ISSUE. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THOUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 211449
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SUNNY AND VERY MILD TODAY WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND. ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL KEEP A STRONG CAP AROUND 2500 FEET AGL. THIS WILL LIMIT
MIXING. STILL...WITH MIN TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY DESPITE
MIXING ISSUE. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THOUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 211050
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
550 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS THROUGH 20Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 06Z-09Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN
INTO KMOT/KBIS 12Z WEDNESDAY. A VCSH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WAS INCLUDED AT KISN/KMOT/KBIS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 211050
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
550 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS THROUGH 20Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 06Z-09Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN
INTO KMOT/KBIS 12Z WEDNESDAY. A VCSH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WAS INCLUDED AT KISN/KMOT/KBIS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 211050
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
550 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS THROUGH 20Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 06Z-09Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN
INTO KMOT/KBIS 12Z WEDNESDAY. A VCSH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WAS INCLUDED AT KISN/KMOT/KBIS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 211050
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
550 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS THROUGH 20Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 06Z-09Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN
INTO KMOT/KBIS 12Z WEDNESDAY. A VCSH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WAS INCLUDED AT KISN/KMOT/KBIS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 210817
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN IN VFR STATUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210817
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN IN VFR STATUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 210458
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1158 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENT TEMPERATURES AVERAGING +7 TO +12 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT
THAN 24HR AGO AS A SOUTHEAST WIND TO 10 MPH AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUE. FORECAST PARAMETERS IN LINE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS THUS
NO UPDATES WARRANTED. WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY ON TRACK
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EAST CENTRAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...AND BLENDED TO THE OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT EXPECTED WITH MIXING AHEAD OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. A LARGE H500
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND.
GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE H850
TEMPS CLOSE TO +20C ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS OVER 40 DEGREES WERE
OBSERVED BUT THESE WERE AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS. SOME MIXING FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 MPH OR SO SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. FOLLOWED
THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE OF BCALLBLEND FOR TUESDAY MIN`S WHICH GAVE
LOW IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LONG TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY RIPPLE IN THE FORECAST IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE THERMODYNAMICS
SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST (NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW) AND SOUTHEAST (ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN IN VFR STATUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 210458
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1158 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENT TEMPERATURES AVERAGING +7 TO +12 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT
THAN 24HR AGO AS A SOUTHEAST WIND TO 10 MPH AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUE. FORECAST PARAMETERS IN LINE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS THUS
NO UPDATES WARRANTED. WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY ON TRACK
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EAST CENTRAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...AND BLENDED TO THE OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT EXPECTED WITH MIXING AHEAD OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. A LARGE H500
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND.
GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE H850
TEMPS CLOSE TO +20C ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS OVER 40 DEGREES WERE
OBSERVED BUT THESE WERE AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS. SOME MIXING FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 MPH OR SO SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. FOLLOWED
THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE OF BCALLBLEND FOR TUESDAY MIN`S WHICH GAVE
LOW IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LONG TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY RIPPLE IN THE FORECAST IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE THERMODYNAMICS
SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST (NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW) AND SOUTHEAST (ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN IN VFR STATUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210233
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...AND BLENDED TO THE OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT EXPECTED WITH MIXING AHEAD OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. A LARGE H500
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND.
GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE H850
TEMPS CLOSE TO +20C ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS OVER 40 DEGREES WERE
OBSERVED BUT THESE WERE AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS. SOME MIXING FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 MPH OR SO SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. FOLLOWED
THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE OF BCALLBLEND FOR TUESDAY MIN`S WHICH GAVE
LOW IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LONG TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY RIPPLE IN THE FORECAST IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE THERMODYNAMICS
SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST (NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW) AND SOUTHEAST (ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT KBIS/KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210233
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...AND BLENDED TO THE OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT EXPECTED WITH MIXING AHEAD OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. A LARGE H500
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND.
GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE H850
TEMPS CLOSE TO +20C ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS OVER 40 DEGREES WERE
OBSERVED BUT THESE WERE AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS. SOME MIXING FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 MPH OR SO SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. FOLLOWED
THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE OF BCALLBLEND FOR TUESDAY MIN`S WHICH GAVE
LOW IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LONG TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY RIPPLE IN THE FORECAST IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE THERMODYNAMICS
SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST (NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW) AND SOUTHEAST (ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT KBIS/KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 202320
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT EXPECTED WITH MIXING AHEAD OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. A LARGE H500
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND.
GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE H850
TEMPS CLOSE TO +20C ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS OVER 40 DEGREES WERE
OBSERVED BUT THESE WERE AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS. SOME MIXING FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 MPH OR SO SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. FOLLOWED
THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE OF BCALLBLEND FOR TUESDAY MIN`S WHICH GAVE
LOW IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LONG TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY RIPPLE IN THE FORECAST IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE THERMODYNAMICS
SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST (NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW) AND SOUTHEAST (ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT KBIS/KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD









000
FXUS63 KBIS 202320
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT EXPECTED WITH MIXING AHEAD OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. A LARGE H500
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND.
GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE H850
TEMPS CLOSE TO +20C ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS OVER 40 DEGREES WERE
OBSERVED BUT THESE WERE AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS. SOME MIXING FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 MPH OR SO SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. FOLLOWED
THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE OF BCALLBLEND FOR TUESDAY MIN`S WHICH GAVE
LOW IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LONG TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY RIPPLE IN THE FORECAST IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE THERMODYNAMICS
SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST (NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW) AND SOUTHEAST (ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT KBIS/KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 202010
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. A LARGE H500
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND.
GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE H850
TEMPS CLOSE TO +20C ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS OVER 40 DEGREES WERE
OBSERVED BUT THESE WERE AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS. SOME MIXING FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 MPH OR SO SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. FOLLOWED
THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE OF BCALLBLEND FOR TUESDAY MIN`S WHICH GAVE
LOW IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LONG TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY RIPPLE IN THE FORECAST IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE THERMODYNAMICS
SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST (NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW) AND SOUTHEAST (ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AT 17Z. DEVELOPING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WEST IN MONTANA. A DRY SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA










000
FXUS63 KBIS 202010
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. A LARGE H500
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND.
GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE H850
TEMPS CLOSE TO +20C ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS OVER 40 DEGREES WERE
OBSERVED BUT THESE WERE AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS. SOME MIXING FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 MPH OR SO SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. FOLLOWED
THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE OF BCALLBLEND FOR TUESDAY MIN`S WHICH GAVE
LOW IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LONG TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY RIPPLE IN THE FORECAST IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE THERMODYNAMICS
SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST (NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW) AND SOUTHEAST (ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AT 17Z. DEVELOPING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WEST IN MONTANA. A DRY SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KBIS 201727
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

RAISED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SUNNY AND VERY MILD TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE POCKET OF STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIEST AIR ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
THIS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY PROVIDING
FOR A CONTINUED CLEAR SKY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...A
COUPLE OF LEADING WEAK SHORTWAVES NOW IN EASTERN IDAHO WILL SHIFT
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TONIGHT WITH THESE SHORTWAVES. WILL
MAINTAIN A CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING AND H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
OVERALL LOWER TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF MIXING
WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS BEING ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GFS HIGHER...BUT STILL SHY FROM MIXING TO 850MB.
WITH A WARMER LOW LEVEL COLUMN IN PLACE BUT LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
VERSUS SUNDAY...THE END RESULT GIVES AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE WEST...AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN
THE EAST CENTRAL...WHEN COMPARING TO SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
STILL AN OUTSTANDING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR POP DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL JET TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE EC/GEM WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IN GENERAL MODELS SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS. ONE AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL-EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S MAINLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING A MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. BACK TO THE WEST...HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD STILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL MONITOR BUT HAVE LEFT THIS AREA
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND
MILD. THIS IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AT 17Z. DEVELOPING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WEST IN MONTANA. A DRY SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 201727
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

RAISED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SUNNY AND VERY MILD TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE POCKET OF STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIEST AIR ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
THIS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY PROVIDING
FOR A CONTINUED CLEAR SKY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...A
COUPLE OF LEADING WEAK SHORTWAVES NOW IN EASTERN IDAHO WILL SHIFT
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TONIGHT WITH THESE SHORTWAVES. WILL
MAINTAIN A CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING AND H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
OVERALL LOWER TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF MIXING
WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS BEING ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GFS HIGHER...BUT STILL SHY FROM MIXING TO 850MB.
WITH A WARMER LOW LEVEL COLUMN IN PLACE BUT LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
VERSUS SUNDAY...THE END RESULT GIVES AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE WEST...AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN
THE EAST CENTRAL...WHEN COMPARING TO SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
STILL AN OUTSTANDING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR POP DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL JET TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE EC/GEM WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IN GENERAL MODELS SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS. ONE AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL-EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S MAINLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING A MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. BACK TO THE WEST...HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD STILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL MONITOR BUT HAVE LEFT THIS AREA
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND
MILD. THIS IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AT 17Z. DEVELOPING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WEST IN MONTANA. A DRY SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 201430
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
930 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SUNNY AND VERY MILD TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE POCKET OF STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIEST AIR ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
THIS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY PROVIDING
FOR A CONTINUED CLEAR SKY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...A
COUPLE OF LEADING WEAK SHORTWAVES NOW IN EASTERN IDAHO WILL SHIFT
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TONIGHT WITH THESE SHORTWAVES. WILL
MAINTAIN A CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING AND H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
OVERALL LOWER TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF MIXING
WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS BEING ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GFS HIGHER...BUT STILL SHY FROM MIXING TO 850MB.
WITH A WARMER LOW LEVEL COLUMN IN PLACE BUT LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
VERSUS SUNDAY...THE END RESULT GIVES AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE WEST...AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN
THE EAST CENTRAL...WHEN COMPARING TO SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
STILL AN OUTSTANDING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR POP DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL JET TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE EC/GEM WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IN GENERAL MODELS SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS. ONE AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL-EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S MAINLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING A MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. BACK TO THE WEST...HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD STILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL MONITOR BUT HAVE LEFT THIS AREA
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND
MILD. THIS IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 201430
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
930 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SUNNY AND VERY MILD TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE POCKET OF STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIEST AIR ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
THIS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY PROVIDING
FOR A CONTINUED CLEAR SKY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...A
COUPLE OF LEADING WEAK SHORTWAVES NOW IN EASTERN IDAHO WILL SHIFT
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TONIGHT WITH THESE SHORTWAVES. WILL
MAINTAIN A CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING AND H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
OVERALL LOWER TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF MIXING
WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS BEING ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GFS HIGHER...BUT STILL SHY FROM MIXING TO 850MB.
WITH A WARMER LOW LEVEL COLUMN IN PLACE BUT LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
VERSUS SUNDAY...THE END RESULT GIVES AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE WEST...AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN
THE EAST CENTRAL...WHEN COMPARING TO SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
STILL AN OUTSTANDING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR POP DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL JET TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE EC/GEM WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IN GENERAL MODELS SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS. ONE AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL-EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S MAINLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING A MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. BACK TO THE WEST...HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD STILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL MONITOR BUT HAVE LEFT THIS AREA
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND
MILD. THIS IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 201135
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE POCKET OF STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIEST AIR ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
THIS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY PROVIDING
FOR A CONTINUED CLEAR SKY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...A
COUPLE OF LEADING WEAK SHORTWAVES NOW IN EASTERN IDAHO WILL SHIFT
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TONIGHT WITH THESE SHORTWAVES. WILL
MAINTAIN A CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING AND H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
OVERALL LOWER TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF MIXING
WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS BEING ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GFS HIGHER...BUT STILL SHY FROM MIXING TO 850MB.
WITH A WARMER LOW LEVEL COLUMN IN PLACE BUT LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
VERSUS SUNDAY...THE END RESULT GIVES AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE WEST...AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN
THE EAST CENTRAL...WHEN COMPARING TO SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
STILL AN OUTSTANDING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR POP DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL JET TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE EC/GEM WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IN GENERAL MODELS SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS. ONE AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL-EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S MAINLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING A MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. BACK TO THE WEST...HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD STILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL MONITOR BUT HAVE LEFT THIS AREA
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND
MILD. THIS IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 201135
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE POCKET OF STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIEST AIR ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
THIS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY PROVIDING
FOR A CONTINUED CLEAR SKY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...A
COUPLE OF LEADING WEAK SHORTWAVES NOW IN EASTERN IDAHO WILL SHIFT
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TONIGHT WITH THESE SHORTWAVES. WILL
MAINTAIN A CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING AND H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
OVERALL LOWER TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF MIXING
WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS BEING ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GFS HIGHER...BUT STILL SHY FROM MIXING TO 850MB.
WITH A WARMER LOW LEVEL COLUMN IN PLACE BUT LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
VERSUS SUNDAY...THE END RESULT GIVES AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE WEST...AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN
THE EAST CENTRAL...WHEN COMPARING TO SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
STILL AN OUTSTANDING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR POP DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL JET TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE EC/GEM WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IN GENERAL MODELS SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS. ONE AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL-EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S MAINLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING A MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. BACK TO THE WEST...HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD STILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL MONITOR BUT HAVE LEFT THIS AREA
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND
MILD. THIS IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 200809
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE POCKET OF STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIEST AIR ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
THIS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY PROVIDING
FOR A CONTINUED CLEAR SKY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...A
COUPLE OF LEADING WEAK SHORTWAVES NOW IN EASTERN IDAHO WILL SHIFT
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TONIGHT WITH THESE SHORTWAVES. WILL
MAINTAIN A CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING AND H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
OVERALL LOWER TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF MIXING
WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS BEING ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GFS HIGHER...BUT STILL SHY FROM MIXING TO 850MB.
WITH A WARMER LOW LEVEL COLUMN IN PLACE BUT LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
VERSUS SUNDAY...THE END RESULT GIVES AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE WEST...AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN
THE EAST CENTRAL...WHEN COMPARING TO SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
STILL AN OUTSTANDING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR POP DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL JET TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE EC/GEM WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IN GENERAL MODELS SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS. ONE AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL-EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S MAINLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING A MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. BACK TO THE WEST...HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD STILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL MONITOR BUT HAVE LEFT THIS AREA
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND
MILD. THIS IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO AVIATION HAZARDS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS










000
FXUS63 KBIS 200809
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE POCKET OF STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIEST AIR ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
THIS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY PROVIDING
FOR A CONTINUED CLEAR SKY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...A
COUPLE OF LEADING WEAK SHORTWAVES NOW IN EASTERN IDAHO WILL SHIFT
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TONIGHT WITH THESE SHORTWAVES. WILL
MAINTAIN A CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING AND H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
OVERALL LOWER TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF MIXING
WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS BEING ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GFS HIGHER...BUT STILL SHY FROM MIXING TO 850MB.
WITH A WARMER LOW LEVEL COLUMN IN PLACE BUT LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
VERSUS SUNDAY...THE END RESULT GIVES AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE WEST...AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN
THE EAST CENTRAL...WHEN COMPARING TO SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
STILL AN OUTSTANDING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR POP DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL JET TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE EC/GEM WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IN GENERAL MODELS SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS. ONE AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL-EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S MAINLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING A MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. BACK TO THE WEST...HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD STILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL MONITOR BUT HAVE LEFT THIS AREA
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND
MILD. THIS IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO AVIATION HAZARDS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS










000
FXUS63 KBIS 200455
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS LIMITED DUE TO TRANSMISSION PROBLEMS...HOWEVER
ENOUGH LOCAL SITES AROUND WITH DEWPOINTS BEING REPORTED IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S. WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY...HAVE OPTED TO
LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES PER LATEST HRRR. OTHERWISE QUIET
NIGHT AHEAD. THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOPS SOME PATCHY FOG JUST EAST OF
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO AVIATION WEATHER ISSUES...VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 200455
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS LIMITED DUE TO TRANSMISSION PROBLEMS...HOWEVER
ENOUGH LOCAL SITES AROUND WITH DEWPOINTS BEING REPORTED IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S. WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY...HAVE OPTED TO
LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES PER LATEST HRRR. OTHERWISE QUIET
NIGHT AHEAD. THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOPS SOME PATCHY FOG JUST EAST OF
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO AVIATION WEATHER ISSUES...VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 200316
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1016 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 200316
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1016 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 192335
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...ZH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 192335
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...ZH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 192335
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...ZH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 191910
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
210 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KBIS 191910
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
210 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA










000
FXUS63 KBIS 191714
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO LOWER 70S SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY WHERE
GOOD MIXING WILL MAX OUT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE IS LITTLE TO DO TO IMPROVE THE CURRENT VERY NICE WEATHER AND
FORECAST. JUST UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE
WEST TODAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE OTHER
THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF IT. THE COLD FRONT WAS LINING UP ALONG THE 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS FROM KMOT SOUTH TO KBIS AS SURFACE WINDS WERE
SHIFTING TO THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND MOVE
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. A CLEAR SKY BEHIND THE
FRONT PER SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS AND FORECAST RH TIME-HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS WILL YIELD A SUNNY FORECAST TODAY. MIXING HEIGHTS UP TO
AROUND 850MB WILL LEAD TO WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
65F TO 70F. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH...EXCEPT OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT 15 TO 25 MPH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY TO CONTINUE AS A H7-H5 RIDGE
SLIDES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM 34F TO 42F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN
ENERGY SPLITS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING
IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 191714
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO LOWER 70S SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY WHERE
GOOD MIXING WILL MAX OUT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE IS LITTLE TO DO TO IMPROVE THE CURRENT VERY NICE WEATHER AND
FORECAST. JUST UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE
WEST TODAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE OTHER
THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF IT. THE COLD FRONT WAS LINING UP ALONG THE 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS FROM KMOT SOUTH TO KBIS AS SURFACE WINDS WERE
SHIFTING TO THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND MOVE
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. A CLEAR SKY BEHIND THE
FRONT PER SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS AND FORECAST RH TIME-HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS WILL YIELD A SUNNY FORECAST TODAY. MIXING HEIGHTS UP TO
AROUND 850MB WILL LEAD TO WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
65F TO 70F. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH...EXCEPT OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT 15 TO 25 MPH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY TO CONTINUE AS A H7-H5 RIDGE
SLIDES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM 34F TO 42F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN
ENERGY SPLITS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING
IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 191426
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
926 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE IS LITTLE TO DO TO IMPROVE THE CURRENT VERY NICE WEATHER AND
FORECAST. JUST UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE
WEST TODAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE OTHER
THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF IT. THE COLD FRONT WAS LINING UP ALONG THE 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS FROM KMOT SOUTH TO KBIS AS SURFACE WINDS WERE
SHIFTING TO THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND MOVE
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. A CLEAR SKY BEHIND THE
FRONT PER SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS AND FORECAST RH TIME-HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS WILL YIELD A SUNNY FORECAST TODAY. MIXING HEIGHTS UP TO
AROUND 850MB WILL LEAD TO WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
65F TO 70F. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH...EXCEPT OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT 15 TO 25 MPH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY TO CONTINUE AS A H7-H5 RIDGE
SLIDES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM 34F TO 42F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN
ENERGY SPLITS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING
IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH
PRESSURE REGION ACROSS MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 191426
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
926 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE IS LITTLE TO DO TO IMPROVE THE CURRENT VERY NICE WEATHER AND
FORECAST. JUST UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE
WEST TODAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE OTHER
THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF IT. THE COLD FRONT WAS LINING UP ALONG THE 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS FROM KMOT SOUTH TO KBIS AS SURFACE WINDS WERE
SHIFTING TO THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND MOVE
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. A CLEAR SKY BEHIND THE
FRONT PER SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS AND FORECAST RH TIME-HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS WILL YIELD A SUNNY FORECAST TODAY. MIXING HEIGHTS UP TO
AROUND 850MB WILL LEAD TO WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
65F TO 70F. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH...EXCEPT OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT 15 TO 25 MPH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY TO CONTINUE AS A H7-H5 RIDGE
SLIDES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM 34F TO 42F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN
ENERGY SPLITS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING
IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH
PRESSURE REGION ACROSS MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KBIS 191131
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE
WEST TODAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE OTHER
THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF IT. THE COLD FRONT WAS LINING UP ALONG THE 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS FROM KMOT SOUTH TO KBIS AS SURFACE WINDS WERE
SHIFTING TO THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND MOVE
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. A CLEAR SKY BEHIND THE
FRONT PER SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS AND FORECAST RH TIME-HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS WILL YIELD A SUNNY FORECAST TODAY. MIXING HEIGHTS UP TO
AROUND 850MB WILL LEAD TO WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
65F TO 70F. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH...EXCEPT OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT 15 TO 25 MPH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY TO CONTINUE AS A H7-H5 RIDGE
SLIDES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM 34F TO 42F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN
ENERGY SPLITS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING
IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH









000
FXUS63 KBIS 190744
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF IT. THE COLD FRONT WAS LINING UP ALONG THE 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS FROM KMOT SOUTH TO KBIS AS SURFACE WINDS WERE
SHIFTING TO THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND MOVE
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. A CLEAR SKY BEHIND THE
FRONT PER SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS AND FORECAST RH TIME-HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS WILL YIELD A SUNNY FORECAST TODAY. MIXING HEIGHTS UP TO
AROUND 850MB WILL LEAD TO WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
65F TO 70F. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH...EXCEPT OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT 15 TO 25 MPH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY TO CONTINUE AS A H7-H5 RIDGE
SLIDES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM 34F TO 42F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN
ENERGY SPLITS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING
IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SUNDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH...EXCEPT AT KJMS WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE STRONGER...BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS










000
FXUS63 KBIS 190744
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF IT. THE COLD FRONT WAS LINING UP ALONG THE 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS FROM KMOT SOUTH TO KBIS AS SURFACE WINDS WERE
SHIFTING TO THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND MOVE
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. A CLEAR SKY BEHIND THE
FRONT PER SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS AND FORECAST RH TIME-HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS WILL YIELD A SUNNY FORECAST TODAY. MIXING HEIGHTS UP TO
AROUND 850MB WILL LEAD TO WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
65F TO 70F. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH...EXCEPT OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT 15 TO 25 MPH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY TO CONTINUE AS A H7-H5 RIDGE
SLIDES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM 34F TO 42F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN
ENERGY SPLITS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING
IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SUNDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH...EXCEPT AT KJMS WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE STRONGER...BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 190450
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS INDICATED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST ALONG WITH WEAK 3HR PRESSURE RISES IN EASTERN MONTANA/FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY IN EAST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT...WITH
GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY FARTHER WEST. THUS EXPECT A CLEARING SKY
OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AS MIXING HEIGHTS ON AVERAGE RISE TO 850MB DURING THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 901 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NOT TOO MANY CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE. WE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
FOR THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AS HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
LINGERED A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. ONLY CHANGE FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST
SOME FOR CLOUD COVER AS AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS PUSH EAST AND SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH REMAINING AREAS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRATUS LAYER ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS
QUICKLY ERODING EASTWARD FROM FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SOME AREAS ACROSS THE EAST WILL SEE
EARLY EVENING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
THEN TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH DRY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT. THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN SHOWS A HEALTHY RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS MONTANA THAT
WILL SIGNAL THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE.
MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK SEES DEPICTS FAST-MOVING ZONAL
WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT AFTER THE MID-WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASS TO OUR EAST. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST BY AROUND 15Z SUNDAY. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KJMS WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...BETWEEN 15
AND 25 MPH.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 190450
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS INDICATED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST ALONG WITH WEAK 3HR PRESSURE RISES IN EASTERN MONTANA/FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY IN EAST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT...WITH
GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY FARTHER WEST. THUS EXPECT A CLEARING SKY
OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AS MIXING HEIGHTS ON AVERAGE RISE TO 850MB DURING THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 901 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NOT TOO MANY CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE. WE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
FOR THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AS HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
LINGERED A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. ONLY CHANGE FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST
SOME FOR CLOUD COVER AS AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS PUSH EAST AND SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH REMAINING AREAS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRATUS LAYER ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS
QUICKLY ERODING EASTWARD FROM FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SOME AREAS ACROSS THE EAST WILL SEE
EARLY EVENING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
THEN TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH DRY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT. THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN SHOWS A HEALTHY RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS MONTANA THAT
WILL SIGNAL THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE.
MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK SEES DEPICTS FAST-MOVING ZONAL
WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT AFTER THE MID-WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASS TO OUR EAST. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST BY AROUND 15Z SUNDAY. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KJMS WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...BETWEEN 15
AND 25 MPH.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 190450
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS INDICATED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST ALONG WITH WEAK 3HR PRESSURE RISES IN EASTERN MONTANA/FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY IN EAST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT...WITH
GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY FARTHER WEST. THUS EXPECT A CLEARING SKY
OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AS MIXING HEIGHTS ON AVERAGE RISE TO 850MB DURING THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 901 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NOT TOO MANY CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE. WE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
FOR THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AS HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
LINGERED A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. ONLY CHANGE FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST
SOME FOR CLOUD COVER AS AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS PUSH EAST AND SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH REMAINING AREAS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRATUS LAYER ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS
QUICKLY ERODING EASTWARD FROM FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SOME AREAS ACROSS THE EAST WILL SEE
EARLY EVENING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
THEN TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH DRY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT. THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN SHOWS A HEALTHY RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS MONTANA THAT
WILL SIGNAL THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE.
MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK SEES DEPICTS FAST-MOVING ZONAL
WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT AFTER THE MID-WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASS TO OUR EAST. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST BY AROUND 15Z SUNDAY. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KJMS WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...BETWEEN 15
AND 25 MPH.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS







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