Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 201139
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
639 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF NORTH
DAKOTA PUSHING TOWARDS THE EAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE. GOING
FORECAST AND CURRENT HIGH-RES MODELS REFLECT THIS DEVELOPMENT
PRETTY WELL...PUSHING THE ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...THEN WINDY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY.

CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/CLIPPER ADVECTING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AT THE MOMENT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS MY NORTHEAST.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
S/WV TROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
NORTH...CENTRAL...AND EAST AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES MATERIALIZE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS WAVE LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY MOST LOCATIONS. BUFFER DATA
INDICATE MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL REEVALUATE LATER THIS
MORNING. COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS OF EASTERN MT/WY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COOL BY
10-15F DEGREES COMPARED TO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE AS SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOW 40S TO MID
30S BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

QUIET NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS.
THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH THE DRIER AIR...WILL
RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE 30S WEST AND 40S CENTRAL AND
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE PLAINS TO
START THE WEEK WHILE A CUTOFF LOW LIFTS ITS WAY OVER THE
SIERRA/GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE RIDGE...APPROACHING THE PLAINS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO START THE
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY OPENS UP AND MOVES THROUGH
THE PLAINS. LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINING TO THE SOUTH...WITH OUR AREA REMAINING ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGES SO WILL KEEP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. RIDGING THEN RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TO
CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SCT -SHRA WITH SOME -TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY. LCL MVFR
VIS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
HEAVIER PRECIP. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30-35 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 200834
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...THEN WINDY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY.

CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/CLIPPER ADVECTING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AT THE MOMENT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS MY NORTHEAST.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
S/WV TROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
NORTH...CENTRAL...AND EAST AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES MATERIALIZE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS WAVE LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY MOST LOCATIONS. BUFFER DATA
INDICATE MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL REEVALUATE LATER THIS
MORNING. COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS OF EASTERN MT/WY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COOL BY
10-15F DEGREES COMPARED TO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE AS SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOW 40S TO MID
30S BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

QUIET NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS.
THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH THE DRIER AIR...WILL
RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE 30S WEST AND 40S CENTRAL AND
EAST.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE PLAINS TO
START THE WEEK WHILE A CUTOFF LOW LIFTS ITS WAY OVER THE
SIERRA/GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE RIDGE...APPROACHING THE PLAINS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO START THE
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY OPENS UP AND MOVES THROUGH
THE PLAINS. LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINING TO THE SOUTH...WITH OUR AREA REMAINING ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGES SO WILL KEEP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. RIDGING THEN RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TO
CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDINESS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BASES AROUND 7-10KFT
TRACKING MAINLY FROM KMOT TO KJMS AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. WILL MENTION A VCSH AT KISN-KMOT-KJMS SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KTS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 200834
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...THEN WINDY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY.

CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/CLIPPER ADVECTING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AT THE MOMENT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS MY NORTHEAST.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
S/WV TROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
NORTH...CENTRAL...AND EAST AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES MATERIALIZE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS WAVE LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY MOST LOCATIONS. BUFFER DATA
INDICATE MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL REEVALUATE LATER THIS
MORNING. COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS OF EASTERN MT/WY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COOL BY
10-15F DEGREES COMPARED TO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE AS SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOW 40S TO MID
30S BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

QUIET NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS.
THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH THE DRIER AIR...WILL
RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE 30S WEST AND 40S CENTRAL AND
EAST.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE PLAINS TO
START THE WEEK WHILE A CUTOFF LOW LIFTS ITS WAY OVER THE
SIERRA/GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE RIDGE...APPROACHING THE PLAINS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO START THE
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY OPENS UP AND MOVES THROUGH
THE PLAINS. LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINING TO THE SOUTH...WITH OUR AREA REMAINING ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGES SO WILL KEEP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. RIDGING THEN RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TO
CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDINESS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BASES AROUND 7-10KFT
TRACKING MAINLY FROM KMOT TO KJMS AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. WILL MENTION A VCSH AT KISN-KMOT-KJMS SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KTS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 200605
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THE INHERITED FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK FOR THE EARLY MORNING
FORECAST UPDATE. DID MODIFY POPS FOR THE NEXT S/WV SET TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. SCALED BACK ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TILL 09Z...HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS LATE TONIGHT PAST DAYBREAK SATURDAY.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THE SETTING SUN. STILL AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER BORDERING MONTANA...BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
DECREASING AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. THUS HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR
THIS EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST NEXT WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE UTILIZED THE 01 UTC
RAP AS A GUIDE FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE.
BROUGHT SHOWERS INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST AROUND 09-10 UTC WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN ON SATURDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
BOTTINEAU AND MCHENRY COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. STRONGER CELLS HAVE REMAINED OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE LOW SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL. UPDATED SKY COVER AND POP GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITE AND THE 14-15 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR...BEHIND A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN TRAIL. SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND WILL FADE
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.

FOR SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN ALBERTA
THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST TO
BE PRECIPITATION FREE. DID INCLUDE AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH IN MONTANA AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER LAKE WINNIPEG. THE 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
DEPICT 30-35 KTS OF FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WHICH
EQUATES TO BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS THAT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SLOWLY
COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE`S EASTWARD MOVEMENT. DURING THIS
TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD AND DRY AIR TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO 40S CENTRAL...WARMING TO
LOWS IN THE 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS SUNDAY UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...AND IN THE 70S ON MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE MEANDERING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST...AND UPSTREAM
RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO A
DRY END OF THE WEEK. CONTINUED MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S...AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDINESS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BASES AROUND 7-10KFT
TRACKING MAINLY FROM KMOT TO KJMS AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. WILL MENTION A VCSH AT KISN-KMOT-KJMS SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KTS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 200252
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
952 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THE SETTING SUN. STILL AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER BORDERING MONTANA...BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
DECREASING AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. THUS HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR
THIS EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST NEXT WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE UTILIZED THE 01 UTC
RAP AS A GUIDE FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE.
BROUGHT SHOWERS INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST AROUND 09-10 UTC WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN ON SATURDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
BOTTINEAU AND MCHENRY COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. STRONGER CELLS HAVE REMAINED OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE LOW SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL. UPDATED SKY COVER AND POP GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITE AND THE 14-15 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR...BEHIND A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN TRAIL. SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND WILL FADE
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.

FOR SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN ALBERTA
THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST TO
BE PRECIPITATION FREE. DID INCLUDE AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH IN MONTANA AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER LAKE WINNIPEG. THE 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
DEPICT 30-35 KTS OF FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WHICH
EQUATES TO BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS THAT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SLOWLY
COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE`S EASTWARD MOVEMENT. DURING THIS
TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD AND DRY AIR TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO 40S CENTRAL...WARMING TO
LOWS IN THE 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS SUNDAY UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...AND IN THE 70S ON MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE MEANDERING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST...AND UPSTREAM
RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO A
DRY END OF THE WEEK. CONTINUED MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S...AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION REMAINED EAST OF MINOT AND
NORTH OF JAMESTOWN. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BASES AROUND 7-10KFT TRACKING MAINLY FROM KMOT TO KJMS
AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. DID MENTION A VCSH
AT KMOT AND KJMS SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH









000
FXUS63 KBIS 200252
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
952 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THE SETTING SUN. STILL AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER BORDERING MONTANA...BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
DECREASING AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. THUS HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR
THIS EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST NEXT WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE UTILIZED THE 01 UTC
RAP AS A GUIDE FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE.
BROUGHT SHOWERS INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST AROUND 09-10 UTC WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN ON SATURDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
BOTTINEAU AND MCHENRY COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. STRONGER CELLS HAVE REMAINED OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE LOW SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL. UPDATED SKY COVER AND POP GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITE AND THE 14-15 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR...BEHIND A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN TRAIL. SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND WILL FADE
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.

FOR SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN ALBERTA
THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST TO
BE PRECIPITATION FREE. DID INCLUDE AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH IN MONTANA AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER LAKE WINNIPEG. THE 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
DEPICT 30-35 KTS OF FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WHICH
EQUATES TO BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS THAT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SLOWLY
COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE`S EASTWARD MOVEMENT. DURING THIS
TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD AND DRY AIR TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO 40S CENTRAL...WARMING TO
LOWS IN THE 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS SUNDAY UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...AND IN THE 70S ON MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE MEANDERING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST...AND UPSTREAM
RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO A
DRY END OF THE WEEK. CONTINUED MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S...AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION REMAINED EAST OF MINOT AND
NORTH OF JAMESTOWN. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BASES AROUND 7-10KFT TRACKING MAINLY FROM KMOT TO KJMS
AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. DID MENTION A VCSH
AT KMOT AND KJMS SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 192342
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
BOTTINEAU AND MCHENRY COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. STRONGER CELLS HAVE REMAINED OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE LOW SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL. UPDATED SKY COVER AND POP GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITE AND THE 14-15 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR...BEHIND A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN TRAIL. SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND WILL FADE
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.

FOR SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN ALBERTA
THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST TO
BE PRECIPITATION FREE. DID INCLUDE AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH IN MONTANA AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER LAKE WINNIPEG. THE 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
DEPICT 30-35 KTS OF FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WHICH
EQUATES TO BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS THAT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SLOWLY
COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE`S EASTWARD MOVEMENT. DURING THIS
TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD AND DRY AIR TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO 40S CENTRAL...WARMING TO
LOWS IN THE 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS SUNDAY UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...AND IN THE 70S ON MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE MEANDERING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST...AND UPSTREAM
RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO A
DRY END OF THE WEEK. CONTINUED MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S...AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. CURRENT CONVECTION HAS REMAINED EAST
OF MINOT AND AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
JAMESTOWN. CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON HAS ALSO DIMINISHED
DURING THE PAST HOUR...THUS NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TAFS THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH VFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BASES AROUND 7-10KFT TRACKING MAINLY FROM KMOT TO KJMS
AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. DID MENTION A VCSH
AT KMOT AND KJMS SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 192342
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
BOTTINEAU AND MCHENRY COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. STRONGER CELLS HAVE REMAINED OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE LOW SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL. UPDATED SKY COVER AND POP GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITE AND THE 14-15 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR...BEHIND A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN TRAIL. SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND WILL FADE
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.

FOR SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN ALBERTA
THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST TO
BE PRECIPITATION FREE. DID INCLUDE AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH IN MONTANA AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER LAKE WINNIPEG. THE 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
DEPICT 30-35 KTS OF FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WHICH
EQUATES TO BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS THAT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SLOWLY
COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE`S EASTWARD MOVEMENT. DURING THIS
TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD AND DRY AIR TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO 40S CENTRAL...WARMING TO
LOWS IN THE 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS SUNDAY UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...AND IN THE 70S ON MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE MEANDERING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST...AND UPSTREAM
RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO A
DRY END OF THE WEEK. CONTINUED MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S...AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. CURRENT CONVECTION HAS REMAINED EAST
OF MINOT AND AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
JAMESTOWN. CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON HAS ALSO DIMINISHED
DURING THE PAST HOUR...THUS NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TAFS THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH VFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BASES AROUND 7-10KFT TRACKING MAINLY FROM KMOT TO KJMS
AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. DID MENTION A VCSH
AT KMOT AND KJMS SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 191930
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITE AND THE 14-15 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR...BEHIND A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN TRAIL. SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND WILL FADE
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.

FOR SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN ALBERTA
THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST TO
BE PRECIPITATION FREE. DID INCLUDE AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH IN MONTANA AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER LAKE WINNIPEG. THE 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
DEPICT 30-35 KTS OF FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WHICH
EQUATES TO BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS THAT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SLOWLY
COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE`S EASTWARD MOVEMENT. DURING THIS
TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD AND DRY AIR TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO 40S CENTRAL...WARMING TO
LOWS IN THE 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS SUNDAY UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...AND IN THE 70S ON MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE MEANDERING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST...AND UPSTREAM
RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO A
DRY END OF THE WEEK. CONTINUED MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S...AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KMOT AND KISN. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35
KTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 191930
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITE AND THE 14-15 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR...BEHIND A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN TRAIL. SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND WILL FADE
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.

FOR SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN ALBERTA
THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST TO
BE PRECIPITATION FREE. DID INCLUDE AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH IN MONTANA AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER LAKE WINNIPEG. THE 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
DEPICT 30-35 KTS OF FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WHICH
EQUATES TO BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS THAT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SLOWLY
COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE`S EASTWARD MOVEMENT. DURING THIS
TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD AND DRY AIR TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO 40S CENTRAL...WARMING TO
LOWS IN THE 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS SUNDAY UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...AND IN THE 70S ON MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE MEANDERING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST...AND UPSTREAM
RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO A
DRY END OF THE WEEK. CONTINUED MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S...AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KMOT AND KISN. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35
KTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 191756
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1256 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 18 UTC.
RELATIVELY ELEVATED DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 855 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AS OF 1330 UTC...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR
CAVALIER IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SELFRIDGE IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S. THIS FRONT WILL EXIT INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
MID DAY. THEREAFTER...DRIER AIR AND WELL MIXED CONDITIONS
OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING
WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE US HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FALLS WELL IN LINE WITH
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. MORNING UPDATE WILL ADDRESS THESE AREAS AND
REMOVE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT AND PARALLEL/ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF AN H300 JET. TO THE NORTH ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT
H500. FOLLOWED THE HRRR AND NAM FOR POP GUIDANCE THIS MORNING.
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER...MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL THIS AM. PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
FRONT AND H300 JET TAKES HOLD. THEN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM
H300 JET WILL POSITION ITSELF TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
A LITTLE E BREEZY WEST AFTER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW AND A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS THE WAVE DIVES
THROUGH AND STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN. WINDS WILL TAPER BY EVENING
WITH PRECIP ENDING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS WORKS EAST. BY
TUESDAY...A COMPACT UPPER LOW WORKS THROUGH THE RIDGE AND APPROACHES
THE REGION...SLOWLY WORKING OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING SOME ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS HAS ENTERED INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A SECOND...WEAKER FRONT ENTERING THE
NORTHWEST...MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KMOT AND KISN. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35
KTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 191756
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1256 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 18 UTC.
RELATIVELY ELEVATED DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 855 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AS OF 1330 UTC...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR
CAVALIER IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SELFRIDGE IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S. THIS FRONT WILL EXIT INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
MID DAY. THEREAFTER...DRIER AIR AND WELL MIXED CONDITIONS
OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING
WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE US HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FALLS WELL IN LINE WITH
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. MORNING UPDATE WILL ADDRESS THESE AREAS AND
REMOVE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT AND PARALLEL/ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF AN H300 JET. TO THE NORTH ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT
H500. FOLLOWED THE HRRR AND NAM FOR POP GUIDANCE THIS MORNING.
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER...MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL THIS AM. PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
FRONT AND H300 JET TAKES HOLD. THEN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM
H300 JET WILL POSITION ITSELF TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
A LITTLE E BREEZY WEST AFTER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW AND A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS THE WAVE DIVES
THROUGH AND STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN. WINDS WILL TAPER BY EVENING
WITH PRECIP ENDING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS WORKS EAST. BY
TUESDAY...A COMPACT UPPER LOW WORKS THROUGH THE RIDGE AND APPROACHES
THE REGION...SLOWLY WORKING OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING SOME ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS HAS ENTERED INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A SECOND...WEAKER FRONT ENTERING THE
NORTHWEST...MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KMOT AND KISN. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35
KTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 191355
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
855 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AS OF 1330 UTC...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR
CAVALIER IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SELFRIDGE IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S. THIS FRONT WILL EXIT INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
MID DAY. THEREAFTER...DRIER AIR AND WELL MIXED CONDITIONS
OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING
WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE US HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FALLS WELL IN LINE WITH
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. MORNING UPDATE WILL ADDRESS THESE AREAS AND
REMOVE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT AND PARALLEL/ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF AN H300 JET. TO THE NORTH ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT
H500. FOLLOWED THE HRRR AND NAM FOR POP GUIDANCE THIS MORNING.
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER...MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL THIS AM. PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
FRONT AND H300 JET TAKES HOLD. THEN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM
H300 JET WILL POSITION ITSELF TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
A LITTLE E BREEZY WEST AFTER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW AND A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS THE WAVE DIVES
THROUGH AND STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN. WINDS WILL TAPER BY EVENING
WITH PRECIP ENDING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS WORKS EAST. BY
TUESDAY...A COMPACT UPPER LOW WORKS THROUGH THE RIDGE AND APPROACHES
THE REGION...SLOWLY WORKING OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING SOME ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AS OF
1330 UTC WILL MOVE INTO MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON...YIELDING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KISN AND
KMOT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR
30 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 191355
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
855 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AS OF 1330 UTC...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR
CAVALIER IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SELFRIDGE IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S. THIS FRONT WILL EXIT INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
MID DAY. THEREAFTER...DRIER AIR AND WELL MIXED CONDITIONS
OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING
WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE US HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FALLS WELL IN LINE WITH
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. MORNING UPDATE WILL ADDRESS THESE AREAS AND
REMOVE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT AND PARALLEL/ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF AN H300 JET. TO THE NORTH ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT
H500. FOLLOWED THE HRRR AND NAM FOR POP GUIDANCE THIS MORNING.
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER...MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL THIS AM. PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
FRONT AND H300 JET TAKES HOLD. THEN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM
H300 JET WILL POSITION ITSELF TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
A LITTLE E BREEZY WEST AFTER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW AND A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS THE WAVE DIVES
THROUGH AND STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN. WINDS WILL TAPER BY EVENING
WITH PRECIP ENDING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS WORKS EAST. BY
TUESDAY...A COMPACT UPPER LOW WORKS THROUGH THE RIDGE AND APPROACHES
THE REGION...SLOWLY WORKING OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING SOME ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AS OF
1330 UTC WILL MOVE INTO MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON...YIELDING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KISN AND
KMOT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR
30 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 191142
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FALLS WELL IN LINE WITH
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. MORNING UPDATE WILL ADDRESS THESE AREAS AND
REMOVE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT AND PARALLEL/ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF AN H300 JET. TO THE NORTH ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT
H500. FOLLOWED THE HRRR AND NAM FOR POP GUIDANCE THIS MORNING.
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER...MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL THIS AM. PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
FRONT AND H300 JET TAKES HOLD. THEN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM
H300 JET WILL POSITION ITSELF TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
A LITTLE E BREEZY WEST AFTER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW AND A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS THE WAVE DIVES
THROUGH AND STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN. WINDS WILL TAPER BY EVENING
WITH PRECIP ENDING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS WORKS EAST. BY
TUESDAY...A COMPACT UPPER LOW WORKS THROUGH THE RIDGE AND APPROACHES
THE REGION...SLOWLY WORKING OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING SOME ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SCT -SHRA WITH ISOLD -TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THRU THE REGION. WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN TERMINAL FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 191142
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FALLS WELL IN LINE WITH
LATEST HRRR OUTPUT. MORNING UPDATE WILL ADDRESS THESE AREAS AND
REMOVE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT AND PARALLEL/ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF AN H300 JET. TO THE NORTH ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT
H500. FOLLOWED THE HRRR AND NAM FOR POP GUIDANCE THIS MORNING.
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER...MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL THIS AM. PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
FRONT AND H300 JET TAKES HOLD. THEN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM
H300 JET WILL POSITION ITSELF TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
A LITTLE E BREEZY WEST AFTER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW AND A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS THE WAVE DIVES
THROUGH AND STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN. WINDS WILL TAPER BY EVENING
WITH PRECIP ENDING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS WORKS EAST. BY
TUESDAY...A COMPACT UPPER LOW WORKS THROUGH THE RIDGE AND APPROACHES
THE REGION...SLOWLY WORKING OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING SOME ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SCT -SHRA WITH ISOLD -TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THRU THE REGION. WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN TERMINAL FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 190839
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
339 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT AND PARALLEL/ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF AN H300 JET. TO THE NORTH ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT
H500. FOLLOWED THE HRRR AND NAM FOR POP GUIDANCE THIS MORNING.
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER...MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL THIS AM. PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
FRONT AND H300 JET TAKES HOLD. THEN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPSTREAM
H300 JET WILL POSITION ITSELF TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
A LITTLE E BREEZY WEST AFTER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW AND A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS THE WAVE DIVES
THROUGH AND STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN. WINDS WILL TAPER BY EVENING
WITH PRECIP ENDING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS WORKS EAST. BY
TUESDAY...A COMPACT UPPER LOW WORKS THROUGH THE RIDGE AND APPROACHES
THE REGION...SLOWLY WORKING OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING SOME ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH
THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. CURRENT
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS TO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA










000
FXUS63 KBIS 190551
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

00Z SOUNDING CONFIRMS MID LEVEL CAPPING. NORTH HALF OF THE STATE
FAIRLY DRY SO TRIMMED POPS. ALSO CAPPING SEEMS TO BE LIMITING
CONVECTION SO TRIMMED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALL AREAS EXCEPT SOUTH
CENTRAL THROUGH 12Z.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. MAIN
MODIFICATIONS WERE TO POPS...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...AND FOR A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS MY SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE

ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ROBUST CAPPING INVERSION KEEPING A LID ON STRONG CONVECTION EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DESPITE 1-2K
JOULES OF CAPE AND STRONG 0-6KM WIND SHEAR OF 40-45KTS. AN AREA OF
ELEVATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF NORTH
DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CONTINUES EASTWARD.
MODIFIED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND NEAR TERM HR MODEL
OUTPUT...TAKING THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL MENTION AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE.

MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN FRIDAY MORNING WILL
BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONVECTIVE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE COMPLICATED BY A RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BUT WITH MID AND HIGH CAPE ABOVE AS MOST FLOW
OVERRIDES. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY GENERATING SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS CURRENT
NAM MODEL FAIRLY WELL PREDICTS. LATEST HRRR DOES NOT HANDLE THIS
WELL. CURRENT THINKING HAS THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WITH THE
COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE STILL A BIT SPOTTY
OWING TO THE CAP...MOSTLY 20 TO 30 POPS. BY FRIDAY NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND
FOCUSED ON THE NORTH HALF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT 55 TO 65
AND HIGHS FRIDAY 78 TO 86.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW. THUS WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THEN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD...ALONG WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY.

ALONG WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY WILL MEANDER SLOWLY BENEATH THE RIDGE CREATING A REX BLOCK
OVER THE ROCKIES. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND THE MEANDERING UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND LIFTING
THE UPPER LOW NORTHEASTWARD - APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.
THIS SLOW-MOVING LOW WILL BRING SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER TO
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
REGARDING ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AT MIDNIGHT CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTH TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE NORTH OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA.
HOWEVER...TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE IN TAF FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 190551
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

00Z SOUNDING CONFIRMS MID LEVEL CAPPING. NORTH HALF OF THE STATE
FAIRLY DRY SO TRIMMED POPS. ALSO CAPPING SEEMS TO BE LIMITING
CONVECTION SO TRIMMED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALL AREAS EXCEPT SOUTH
CENTRAL THROUGH 12Z.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. MAIN
MODIFICATIONS WERE TO POPS...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...AND FOR A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS MY SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE

ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ROBUST CAPPING INVERSION KEEPING A LID ON STRONG CONVECTION EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DESPITE 1-2K
JOULES OF CAPE AND STRONG 0-6KM WIND SHEAR OF 40-45KTS. AN AREA OF
ELEVATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF NORTH
DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CONTINUES EASTWARD.
MODIFIED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND NEAR TERM HR MODEL
OUTPUT...TAKING THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL MENTION AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE.

MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN FRIDAY MORNING WILL
BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONVECTIVE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE COMPLICATED BY A RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BUT WITH MID AND HIGH CAPE ABOVE AS MOST FLOW
OVERRIDES. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY GENERATING SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS CURRENT
NAM MODEL FAIRLY WELL PREDICTS. LATEST HRRR DOES NOT HANDLE THIS
WELL. CURRENT THINKING HAS THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WITH THE
COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE STILL A BIT SPOTTY
OWING TO THE CAP...MOSTLY 20 TO 30 POPS. BY FRIDAY NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND
FOCUSED ON THE NORTH HALF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT 55 TO 65
AND HIGHS FRIDAY 78 TO 86.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW. THUS WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THEN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD...ALONG WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY.

ALONG WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY WILL MEANDER SLOWLY BENEATH THE RIDGE CREATING A REX BLOCK
OVER THE ROCKIES. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND THE MEANDERING UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND LIFTING
THE UPPER LOW NORTHEASTWARD - APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.
THIS SLOW-MOVING LOW WILL BRING SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER TO
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
REGARDING ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AT MIDNIGHT CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTH TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE NORTH OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA.
HOWEVER...TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE IN TAF FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 190236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. MAIN
MODIFICATIONS WERE TO POPS...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...AND FOR A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS MY SOUTHWEST.


UPDATE

ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ROBUST CAPPING INVERSION KEEPING A LID ON STRONG CONVECTION EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DESPITE 1-2K
JOULES OF CAPE AND STRONG 0-6KM WIND SHEAR OF 40-45KTS. AN AREA OF
ELEVATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF NORTH
DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CONTINUES EASTWARD.
MODIFIED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND NEAR TERM HR MODEL
OUTPUT...TAKING THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL MENTION AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE.

MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN FRIDAY MORNING WILL
BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONVECTIVE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE COMPLICATED BY A RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BUT WITH MID AND HIGH CAPE ABOVE AS MOST FLOW
OVERRIDES. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY GENERATING SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS CURRENT
NAM MODEL FAIRLY WELL PREDICTS. LATEST HRRR DOES NOT HANDLE THIS
WELL. CURRENT THINKING HAS THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WITH THE
COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE STILL A BIT SPOTTY
OWING TO THE CAP...MOSTLY 20 TO 30 POPS. BY FRIDAY NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND
FOCUSED ON THE NORTH HALF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT 55 TO 65
AND HIGHS FRIDAY 78 TO 86.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW. THUS WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THEN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD...ALONG WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY.

ALONG WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY WILL MEANDER SLOWLY BENEATH THE RIDGE CREATING A REX BLOCK
OVER THE ROCKIES. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND THE MEANDERING UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND LIFTING
THE UPPER LOW NORTHEASTWARD - APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.
THIS SLOW-MOVING LOW WILL BRING SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER TO
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
REGARDING ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION...OPTED TO
USE VCSH AS THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED AT
BEST. OVERALL VFR IS EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 190236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. MAIN
MODIFICATIONS WERE TO POPS...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...AND FOR A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS MY SOUTHWEST.


UPDATE

ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ROBUST CAPPING INVERSION KEEPING A LID ON STRONG CONVECTION EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DESPITE 1-2K
JOULES OF CAPE AND STRONG 0-6KM WIND SHEAR OF 40-45KTS. AN AREA OF
ELEVATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF NORTH
DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CONTINUES EASTWARD.
MODIFIED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND NEAR TERM HR MODEL
OUTPUT...TAKING THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL MENTION AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE.

MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN FRIDAY MORNING WILL
BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONVECTIVE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE COMPLICATED BY A RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BUT WITH MID AND HIGH CAPE ABOVE AS MOST FLOW
OVERRIDES. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY GENERATING SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS CURRENT
NAM MODEL FAIRLY WELL PREDICTS. LATEST HRRR DOES NOT HANDLE THIS
WELL. CURRENT THINKING HAS THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WITH THE
COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE STILL A BIT SPOTTY
OWING TO THE CAP...MOSTLY 20 TO 30 POPS. BY FRIDAY NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND
FOCUSED ON THE NORTH HALF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT 55 TO 65
AND HIGHS FRIDAY 78 TO 86.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW. THUS WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THEN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD...ALONG WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY.

ALONG WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY WILL MEANDER SLOWLY BENEATH THE RIDGE CREATING A REX BLOCK
OVER THE ROCKIES. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND THE MEANDERING UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND LIFTING
THE UPPER LOW NORTHEASTWARD - APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.
THIS SLOW-MOVING LOW WILL BRING SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER TO
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
REGARDING ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION...OPTED TO
USE VCSH AS THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED AT
BEST. OVERALL VFR IS EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 190010
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
710 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ROBUST CAPPING INVERSION KEEPING A LID ON STRONG CONVECTION EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DESPITE 1-2K
JOULES OF CAPE AND STRONG 0-6KM WIND SHEAR OF 40-45KTS. AN AREA OF
ELEVATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF NORTH
DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CONTINUES EASTWARD.
MODIFIED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND NEAR TERM HR MODEL
OUTPUT...TAKING THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL MENTION AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE.

MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN FRIDAY MORNING WILL
BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONVECTIVE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE COMPLICATED BY A RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BUT WITH MID AND HIGH CAPE ABOVE AS MOST FLOW
OVERRIDES. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY GENERATING SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS CURRENT
NAM MODEL FAIRLY WELL PREDICTS. LATEST HRRR DOES NOT HANDLE THIS
WELL. CURRENT THINKING HAS THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WITH THE
COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE STILL A BIT SPOTTY
OWING TO THE CAP...MOSTLY 20 TO 30 POPS. BY FRIDAY NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND
FOCUSED ON THE NORTH HALF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT 55 TO 65
AND HIGHS FRIDAY 78 TO 86.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW. THUS WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THEN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD...ALONG WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY.

ALONG WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY WILL MEANDER SLOWLY BENEATH THE RIDGE CREATING A REX BLOCK
OVER THE ROCKIES. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND THE MEANDERING UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND LIFTING
THE UPPER LOW NORTHEASTWARD - APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.
THIS SLOW-MOVING LOW WILL BRING SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER TO
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
REGARDING ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION...OPTED TO
USE VCSH AS THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED AT
BEST. OVERALL VFR IS EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 190010
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
710 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ROBUST CAPPING INVERSION KEEPING A LID ON STRONG CONVECTION EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DESPITE 1-2K
JOULES OF CAPE AND STRONG 0-6KM WIND SHEAR OF 40-45KTS. AN AREA OF
ELEVATED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF NORTH
DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CONTINUES EASTWARD.
MODIFIED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND NEAR TERM HR MODEL
OUTPUT...TAKING THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL MENTION AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE.

MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN FRIDAY MORNING WILL
BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONVECTIVE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE COMPLICATED BY A RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BUT WITH MID AND HIGH CAPE ABOVE AS MOST FLOW
OVERRIDES. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY GENERATING SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS CURRENT
NAM MODEL FAIRLY WELL PREDICTS. LATEST HRRR DOES NOT HANDLE THIS
WELL. CURRENT THINKING HAS THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WITH THE
COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE STILL A BIT SPOTTY
OWING TO THE CAP...MOSTLY 20 TO 30 POPS. BY FRIDAY NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND
FOCUSED ON THE NORTH HALF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT 55 TO 65
AND HIGHS FRIDAY 78 TO 86.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW. THUS WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THEN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD...ALONG WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY.

ALONG WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY WILL MEANDER SLOWLY BENEATH THE RIDGE CREATING A REX BLOCK
OVER THE ROCKIES. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND THE MEANDERING UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND LIFTING
THE UPPER LOW NORTHEASTWARD - APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.
THIS SLOW-MOVING LOW WILL BRING SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER TO
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
REGARDING ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION...OPTED TO
USE VCSH AS THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED AT
BEST. OVERALL VFR IS EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 182026
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
326 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONVECTIVE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE COMPLICATED BY A RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BUT WITH MID AND HIGH CAPE ABOVE AS MOST FLOW
OVERRIDES. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY GENERATING SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS CURRENT
NAM MODEL FAIRLY WELL PREDICTS. LATEST HRRR DOES NOT HANDLE THIS
WELL. CURRENT THINKING HAS THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WITH THE
COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE STILL A BIT SPOTTY
OWING TO THE CAP...MOSTLY 20 TO 30 POPS. BY FRIDAY NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND
FOCUSED ON THE NORTH HALF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT 55 TO 65
AND HIGHS FRIDAY 78 TO 86.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW. THUS WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THEN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD...ALONG WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY.

ALONG WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY WILL MEANDER SLOWLY BENEATH THE RIDGE CREATING A REX BLOCK
OVER THE ROCKIES. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND THE MEANDERING UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND LIFTING
THE UPPER LOW NORTHEASTWARD - APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.
THIS SLOW-MOVING LOW WILL BRING SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER TO
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
REGARDING ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL TONIGHT...AND ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY. USED VCTS TO DESCRIBE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT EARLY ON BUT
OVERALL TO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE TSRA IN TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KBIS 182026
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
326 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONVECTIVE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE COMPLICATED BY A RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BUT WITH MID AND HIGH CAPE ABOVE AS MOST FLOW
OVERRIDES. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY GENERATING SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS CURRENT
NAM MODEL FAIRLY WELL PREDICTS. LATEST HRRR DOES NOT HANDLE THIS
WELL. CURRENT THINKING HAS THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WITH THE
COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE STILL A BIT SPOTTY
OWING TO THE CAP...MOSTLY 20 TO 30 POPS. BY FRIDAY NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND
FOCUSED ON THE NORTH HALF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT 55 TO 65
AND HIGHS FRIDAY 78 TO 86.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW. THUS WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THEN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD...ALONG WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY.

ALONG WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY WILL MEANDER SLOWLY BENEATH THE RIDGE CREATING A REX BLOCK
OVER THE ROCKIES. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND THE MEANDERING UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND LIFTING
THE UPPER LOW NORTHEASTWARD - APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.
THIS SLOW-MOVING LOW WILL BRING SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER TO
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
REGARDING ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL TONIGHT...AND ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY. USED VCTS TO DESCRIBE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT EARLY ON BUT
OVERALL TO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE TSRA IN TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA










000
FXUS63 KBIS 181804
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
104 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY..LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED THROUGH
SASKATCHEWAN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CAP IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. BENEATH THIS CAP LOW LEVEL MOISTER WILL ALSO STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOG HAS DISSIPATED NORTH CENTRAL AND IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. BUMPED THE WINDS UP ABOUT 5 MPH TO
15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NAM H850 WINDS OF 35 KTS SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SEEM HANDLED WELL BY NEW
NAM WHICH KEEP THEM ALONG THE BORDER. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS WEST. WILL WATCH FOR ANY CONVECTION CENTRAL
AND EAST FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

HAVE EXPANDED PATCHY FOG TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH OBBS STARTING
TO COME IN ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER SHOWING ADDITIONAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 518 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

HAVE UPDATED FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND PATCHES OF STRATUS FORMING IN THE BOWBELLS TO MOHALL
AREAS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER WAS SHOWING UP SOUTHWEST OF WILLISTON
EARLY THIS THURSDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER WEST OF BOWMAN. MOVEMENT
WAS EAST INTO MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR. WILL EXPECT DISSIPATION
OF THOSE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY AS A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE
PUSHES TO THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY AFTERNOON. THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN 15 TO 25 MPH OF WIND
TODAY...AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR ACTS TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE MEAN H5 RIDGE. TOGETHER THESE MEAN
THE CHANCE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT A MORE POTENT
H5 WAVE FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH HIGHER POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH MOST PLACES ENDING UP WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST WHERE 75
WILL ABOUT DO IT AHEAD OF THE WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UNSETTLED WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK SHORT WAVES PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING CONTINUED LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC SLIDES ONSHORE
SATURDAY SHIFTING FLOW NORTHWESTERLY OVER OUR AREA...THOUGH THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE SLIDES DOWN THE RIDGE BRINGING CONTINUED LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE. RIDGE THEN
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST TO START THE WEEK
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. TOWARDS
MID-WEEK...SOME MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN DEVELOPING AS A LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL KEEP
FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AND MAY
HAVE TO ADD SOME PRECIP ON SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF MODELS ARE
PERSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WEST AND ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COULD CREATE SOME MVFR
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ND. FOR THE TIME BEING ADDED SCT CLOUDS AT
25 HUNDRED AGL TO KJMS. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KBIS 181804
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
104 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY..LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED THROUGH
SASKATCHEWAN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CAP IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. BENEATH THIS CAP LOW LEVEL MOISTER WILL ALSO STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOG HAS DISSIPATED NORTH CENTRAL AND IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. BUMPED THE WINDS UP ABOUT 5 MPH TO
15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NAM H850 WINDS OF 35 KTS SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SEEM HANDLED WELL BY NEW
NAM WHICH KEEP THEM ALONG THE BORDER. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS WEST. WILL WATCH FOR ANY CONVECTION CENTRAL
AND EAST FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

HAVE EXPANDED PATCHY FOG TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH OBBS STARTING
TO COME IN ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER SHOWING ADDITIONAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 518 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

HAVE UPDATED FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND PATCHES OF STRATUS FORMING IN THE BOWBELLS TO MOHALL
AREAS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER WAS SHOWING UP SOUTHWEST OF WILLISTON
EARLY THIS THURSDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER WEST OF BOWMAN. MOVEMENT
WAS EAST INTO MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR. WILL EXPECT DISSIPATION
OF THOSE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY AS A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE
PUSHES TO THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY AFTERNOON. THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN 15 TO 25 MPH OF WIND
TODAY...AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR ACTS TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE MEAN H5 RIDGE. TOGETHER THESE MEAN
THE CHANCE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT A MORE POTENT
H5 WAVE FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH HIGHER POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH MOST PLACES ENDING UP WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST WHERE 75
WILL ABOUT DO IT AHEAD OF THE WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UNSETTLED WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK SHORT WAVES PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING CONTINUED LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC SLIDES ONSHORE
SATURDAY SHIFTING FLOW NORTHWESTERLY OVER OUR AREA...THOUGH THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE SLIDES DOWN THE RIDGE BRINGING CONTINUED LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE. RIDGE THEN
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST TO START THE WEEK
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. TOWARDS
MID-WEEK...SOME MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN DEVELOPING AS A LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL KEEP
FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AND MAY
HAVE TO ADD SOME PRECIP ON SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF MODELS ARE
PERSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WEST AND ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COULD CREATE SOME MVFR
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ND. FOR THE TIME BEING ADDED SCT CLOUDS AT
25 HUNDRED AGL TO KJMS. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 181502
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1002 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOG HAS DISSIPATED NORTH CENTRAL AND IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. BUMPED THE WINDS UP ABOUT 5 MPH TO
15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NAM H850 WINDS OF 35 KTS SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SEEM HANDLED WELL BY NEW
NAM WHICH KEEP THEM ALONG THE BORDER. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS WEST. WILL WATCH FOR ANY CONVECTION CENTRAL
AND EAST FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

HAVE EXPANDED PATCHY FOG TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH OBBS STARTING
TO COME IN ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER SHOWING ADDITIONAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 518 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

HAVE UPDATED FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND PATCHES OF STRATUS FORMING IN THE BOWBELLS TO MOHALL
AREAS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER WAS SHOWING UP SOUTHWEST OF WILLISTON
EARLY THIS THURSDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER WEST OF BOWMAN. MOVEMENT
WAS EAST INTO MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR. WILL EXPECT DISSIPATION
OF THOSE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY AS A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE
PUSHES TO THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY AFTERNOON. THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN 15 TO 25 MPH OF WIND
TODAY...AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR ACTS TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE MEAN H5 RIDGE. TOGETHER THESE MEAN
THE CHANCE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT A MORE POTENT
H5 WAVE FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH HIGHER POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH MOST PLACES ENDING UP WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST WHERE 75
WILL ABOUT DO IT AHEAD OF THE WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UNSETTLED WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK SHORT WAVES PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING CONTINUED LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC SLIDES ONSHORE
SATURDAY SHIFTING FLOW NORTHWESTERLY OVER OUR AREA...THOUGH THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE SLIDES DOWN THE RIDGE BRINGING CONTINUED LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE. RIDGE THEN
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST TO START THE WEEK
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. TOWARDS
MID-WEEK...SOME MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN DEVELOPING AS A LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL KEEP
FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AND MAY
HAVE TO ADD SOME PRECIP ON SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF MODELS ARE
PERSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 181502
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1002 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOG HAS DISSIPATED NORTH CENTRAL AND IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. BUMPED THE WINDS UP ABOUT 5 MPH TO
15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NAM H850 WINDS OF 35 KTS SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SEEM HANDLED WELL BY NEW
NAM WHICH KEEP THEM ALONG THE BORDER. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS WEST. WILL WATCH FOR ANY CONVECTION CENTRAL
AND EAST FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

HAVE EXPANDED PATCHY FOG TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH OBBS STARTING
TO COME IN ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER SHOWING ADDITIONAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 518 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

HAVE UPDATED FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND PATCHES OF STRATUS FORMING IN THE BOWBELLS TO MOHALL
AREAS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER WAS SHOWING UP SOUTHWEST OF WILLISTON
EARLY THIS THURSDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER WEST OF BOWMAN. MOVEMENT
WAS EAST INTO MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR. WILL EXPECT DISSIPATION
OF THOSE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY AS A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE
PUSHES TO THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY AFTERNOON. THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN 15 TO 25 MPH OF WIND
TODAY...AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR ACTS TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE MEAN H5 RIDGE. TOGETHER THESE MEAN
THE CHANCE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT A MORE POTENT
H5 WAVE FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH HIGHER POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH MOST PLACES ENDING UP WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST WHERE 75
WILL ABOUT DO IT AHEAD OF THE WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UNSETTLED WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK SHORT WAVES PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING CONTINUED LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC SLIDES ONSHORE
SATURDAY SHIFTING FLOW NORTHWESTERLY OVER OUR AREA...THOUGH THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE SLIDES DOWN THE RIDGE BRINGING CONTINUED LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE. RIDGE THEN
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST TO START THE WEEK
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. TOWARDS
MID-WEEK...SOME MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN DEVELOPING AS A LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL KEEP
FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AND MAY
HAVE TO ADD SOME PRECIP ON SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF MODELS ARE
PERSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KBIS 181138
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

HAVE EXPANDED PATCHY FOG TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH OBBS STARTING
TO COME IN ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER SHOWING ADDITIONAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 518 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

HAVE UPDATED FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND PATCHES OF STRATUS FORMING IN THE BOWBELLS TO MOHALL
AREAS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER WAS SHOWING UP SOUTHWEST OF WILLISTON
EARLY THIS THURSDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER WEST OF BOWMAN. MOVEMENT
WAS EAST INTO MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR. WILL EXPECT DISSIPATION
OF THOSE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY AS A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE
PUSHES TO THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY AFTERNOON. THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN 15 TO 25 MPH OF WIND
TODAY...AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR ACTS TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE MEAN H5 RIDGE. TOGETHER THESE MEAN
THE CHANCE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT A MORE POTENT
H5 WAVE FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH HIGHER POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH MOST PLACES ENDING UP WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST WHERE 75
WILL ABOUT DO IT AHEAD OF THE WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UNSETTLED WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK SHORT WAVES PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING CONTINUED LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC SLIDES ONSHORE
SATURDAY SHIFTING FLOW NORTHWESTERLY OVER OUR AREA...THOUGH THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE SLIDES DOWN THE RIDGE BRINGING CONTINUED LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE. RIDGE THEN
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST TO START THE WEEK
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. TOWARDS
MID-WEEK...SOME MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN DEVELOPING AS A LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL KEEP
FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AND MAY
HAVE TO ADD SOME PRECIP ON SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF MODELS ARE
PERSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

PATCHY FOG RESULTING IN LCL IFR VIS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL DIMINISH BY MID-
MORNING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON....ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SPREADING EAST INTO THE
EVENING. WITH LOW COVERAGE EXPECTED WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING
IN TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 181138
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

HAVE EXPANDED PATCHY FOG TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH OBBS STARTING
TO COME IN ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER SHOWING ADDITIONAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 518 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

HAVE UPDATED FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND PATCHES OF STRATUS FORMING IN THE BOWBELLS TO MOHALL
AREAS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER WAS SHOWING UP SOUTHWEST OF WILLISTON
EARLY THIS THURSDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER WEST OF BOWMAN. MOVEMENT
WAS EAST INTO MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR. WILL EXPECT DISSIPATION
OF THOSE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY AS A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE
PUSHES TO THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY AFTERNOON. THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN 15 TO 25 MPH OF WIND
TODAY...AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR ACTS TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE MEAN H5 RIDGE. TOGETHER THESE MEAN
THE CHANCE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT A MORE POTENT
H5 WAVE FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH HIGHER POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH MOST PLACES ENDING UP WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST WHERE 75
WILL ABOUT DO IT AHEAD OF THE WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UNSETTLED WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK SHORT WAVES PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING CONTINUED LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC SLIDES ONSHORE
SATURDAY SHIFTING FLOW NORTHWESTERLY OVER OUR AREA...THOUGH THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE SLIDES DOWN THE RIDGE BRINGING CONTINUED LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE. RIDGE THEN
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST TO START THE WEEK
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. TOWARDS
MID-WEEK...SOME MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN DEVELOPING AS A LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL KEEP
FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AND MAY
HAVE TO ADD SOME PRECIP ON SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF MODELS ARE
PERSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

PATCHY FOG RESULTING IN LCL IFR VIS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL DIMINISH BY MID-
MORNING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON....ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SPREADING EAST INTO THE
EVENING. WITH LOW COVERAGE EXPECTED WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING
IN TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 181020
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
520 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 518 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

HAVE UPDATED FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND PATCHES OF STRATUS FORMING IN THE BOWBELLS TO MOHALL
AREAS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER WAS SHOWING UP SOUTHWEST OF WILLISTON
EARLY THIS THURSDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER WEST OF BOWMAN. MOVEMENT
WAS EAST INTO MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR. WILL EXPECT DISSIPATION
OF THOSE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY AS A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE
PUSHES TO THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY AFTERNOON. THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN 15 TO 25 MPH OF WIND
TODAY...AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR ACTS TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE MEAN H5 RIDGE. TOGETHER THESE MEAN
THE CHANCE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT A MORE POTENT
H5 WAVE FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH HIGHER POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH MOST PLACES ENDING UP WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST WHERE 75
WILL ABOUT DO IT AHEAD OF THE WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UNSETTLED WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK SHORT WAVES PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING CONTINUED LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC SLIDES ONSHORE
SATURDAY SHIFTING FLOW NORTHWESTERLY OVER OUR AREA...THOUGH THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE SLIDES DOWN THE RIDGE BRINGING CONTINUED LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE. RIDGE THEN
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST TO START THE WEEK
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. TOWARDS
MID-WEEK...SOME MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN DEVELOPING AS A LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL KEEP
FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AND MAY
HAVE TO ADD SOME PRECIP ON SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF MODELS ARE
PERSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH IN MONTANA WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 13 TO 23 KNOTS. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN STORMS COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 00Z AS A MORE POTENT
MID ATMOSPHERIC WAVE PASSES THROUGH.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JPM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 181020
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
520 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 518 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

HAVE UPDATED FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND PATCHES OF STRATUS FORMING IN THE BOWBELLS TO MOHALL
AREAS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER WAS SHOWING UP SOUTHWEST OF WILLISTON
EARLY THIS THURSDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER WEST OF BOWMAN. MOVEMENT
WAS EAST INTO MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR. WILL EXPECT DISSIPATION
OF THOSE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY AS A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE
PUSHES TO THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY AFTERNOON. THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN 15 TO 25 MPH OF WIND
TODAY...AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR ACTS TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE MEAN H5 RIDGE. TOGETHER THESE MEAN
THE CHANCE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT A MORE POTENT
H5 WAVE FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH HIGHER POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH MOST PLACES ENDING UP WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST WHERE 75
WILL ABOUT DO IT AHEAD OF THE WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UNSETTLED WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK SHORT WAVES PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING CONTINUED LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC SLIDES ONSHORE
SATURDAY SHIFTING FLOW NORTHWESTERLY OVER OUR AREA...THOUGH THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE SLIDES DOWN THE RIDGE BRINGING CONTINUED LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE. RIDGE THEN
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST TO START THE WEEK
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. TOWARDS
MID-WEEK...SOME MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN DEVELOPING AS A LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL KEEP
FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AND MAY
HAVE TO ADD SOME PRECIP ON SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF MODELS ARE
PERSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH IN MONTANA WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 13 TO 23 KNOTS. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN STORMS COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 00Z AS A MORE POTENT
MID ATMOSPHERIC WAVE PASSES THROUGH.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JPM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 180809
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
309 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER WAS SHOWING UP SOUTHWEST OF WILLISTON
EARLY THIS THURSDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER WEST OF BOWMAN. MOVEMENT
WAS EAST INTO MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR. WILL EXPECT DISSIPATION
OF THOSE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY AS A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE
PUSHES TO THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY AFTERNOON. THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN 15 TO 25 MPH OF WIND
TODAY...AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR ACTS TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE MEAN H5 RIDGE. TOGETHER THESE MEAN
THE CHANCE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT A MORE POTENT
H5 WAVE FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH HIGHER POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH MOST PLACES ENDING UP WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST WHERE 75
WILL ABOUT DO IT AHEAD OF THE WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UNSETTLED WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK SHORT WAVES PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING CONTINUED LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC SLIDES ONSHORE
SATURDAY SHIFTING FLOW NORTHWESTERLY OVER OUR AREA...THOUGH THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE SLIDES DOWN THE RIDGE BRINGING CONTINUED LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE. RIDGE THEN
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST TO START THE WEEK
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. TOWARDS
MID-WEEK...SOME MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN DEVELOPING AS A LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL KEEP
FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AND MAY
HAVE TO ADD SOME PRECIP ON SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF MODELS ARE
PERSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH IN MONTANA WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 13 TO 23 KNOTS. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN STORMS COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 00Z AS A MORE POTENT
MID ATMOSPHERIC WAVE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JPM









000
FXUS63 KBIS 180809
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
309 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER WAS SHOWING UP SOUTHWEST OF WILLISTON
EARLY THIS THURSDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER WEST OF BOWMAN. MOVEMENT
WAS EAST INTO MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR. WILL EXPECT DISSIPATION
OF THOSE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY AS A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE
PUSHES TO THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY AFTERNOON. THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN 15 TO 25 MPH OF WIND
TODAY...AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR ACTS TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE MEAN H5 RIDGE. TOGETHER THESE MEAN
THE CHANCE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT A MORE POTENT
H5 WAVE FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH HIGHER POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH MOST PLACES ENDING UP WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST WHERE 75
WILL ABOUT DO IT AHEAD OF THE WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UNSETTLED WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK SHORT WAVES PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING CONTINUED LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC SLIDES ONSHORE
SATURDAY SHIFTING FLOW NORTHWESTERLY OVER OUR AREA...THOUGH THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE SLIDES DOWN THE RIDGE BRINGING CONTINUED LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE. RIDGE THEN
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST TO START THE WEEK
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. TOWARDS
MID-WEEK...SOME MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN DEVELOPING AS A LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL KEEP
FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AND MAY
HAVE TO ADD SOME PRECIP ON SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF MODELS ARE
PERSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH IN MONTANA WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 13 TO 23 KNOTS. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN STORMS COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 00Z AS A MORE POTENT
MID ATMOSPHERIC WAVE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JPM








000
FXUS63 KBIS 180459
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1159 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

PREVIOUS FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK.

A SMALL AREA OF -TSRA EAST OF BILLINGS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR. WILL EXPECT DISSIPATION BY
THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS...MVFR CEILINGS...IN MANITOBA INTO SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTH...AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS...IFR CEILINGS...IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA WAS MOVING WEST AND
COULD IMPACT THE JAMESTOWN AREA AROUND DAYBREAK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH SOME AREAS IN THE WEST
SEEING TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO
DROP TOO MUCH THERE AS SOME HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST...AND EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
TO PROVIDE SOME MIXING AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 STILL ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST - BOWMAN AND HETTINGER
AND AMIDON AREAS - WAS EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTH OF
THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ENDING THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS BY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH
LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP AN EAST/SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THERE ARE SEVERAL FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TONIGHT.
FIRST..THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. WILL INCLUDE A
PERIOD OF SPRINKLES SOUTHWEST FOR THIS. ABUNDANT DRY AIR BENEATH
CLOUD BASES SHOULD CAUSE EVAPORATION AND SEE LITTLE REACHING THE
GROUND.

SECOND...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHALLOW COOL AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT
LOOKS TO BE MIXING OUT A BIT AS THE CLOUDS HAVE EVAPORATED. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE COOL AIR AT BAR ACROSS THE
BORDER.

ON THURSDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD
BRING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS DURING THE DAY. BACKING FLOW ALOFT WITH
THE ADVANCING WEST COAST H500 TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS FROM 72
TO 85

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
WORKS TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS PATTERN TRANSITION AND AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS MAINTAINED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY -
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KFAR TO NEAR KMOT IS
FORECAST TO RETURN NORTH AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON NORTH DAKOTA
WEATHER OUTSIDE OF TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. A SURFACE TROUGH IN
MONTANA WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JPM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 180232
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
932 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH SOME AREAS IN THE WEST
SEEING TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO
DROP TOO MUCH THERE AS SOME HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST...AND EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
TO PROVIDE SOME MIXING AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 STILL ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST - BOWMAN AND HETTINGER
AND AMIDON AREAS - WAS EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTH OF
THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ENDING THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS BY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH
LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP AN EAST/SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THERE ARE SEVERAL FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TONIGHT.
FIRST..THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. WILL INCLUDE A
PERIOD OF SPRINKLES SOUTHWEST FOR THIS. ABUNDANT DRY AIR BENEATH
CLOUD BASES SHOULD CAUSE EVAPORATION AND SEE LITTLE REACHING THE
GROUND.

SECOND...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHALLOW COOL AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT
LOOKS TO BE MIXING OUT A BIT AS THE CLOUDS HAVE EVAPORATED. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE COOL AIR AT BAR ACROSS THE
BORDER.

ON THURSDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD
BRING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS DURING THE DAY. BACKING FLOW ALOFT WITH
THE ADVANCING WEST COAST H500 TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS FROM 72
TO 85

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
WORKS TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS PATTERN TRANSITION AND AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS MAINTAINED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY -
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR FARGO THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA NORTH OF MINOT IS FORECAST TO RETURN NORTH TO CANADA AND
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT IN ND. A SURFACE TOUGH IN MONTANA WILL
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF FORECAST. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 180232
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
932 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH SOME AREAS IN THE WEST
SEEING TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO
DROP TOO MUCH THERE AS SOME HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST...AND EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
TO PROVIDE SOME MIXING AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 STILL ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST - BOWMAN AND HETTINGER
AND AMIDON AREAS - WAS EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTH OF
THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ENDING THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS BY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH
LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP AN EAST/SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THERE ARE SEVERAL FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TONIGHT.
FIRST..THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. WILL INCLUDE A
PERIOD OF SPRINKLES SOUTHWEST FOR THIS. ABUNDANT DRY AIR BENEATH
CLOUD BASES SHOULD CAUSE EVAPORATION AND SEE LITTLE REACHING THE
GROUND.

SECOND...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHALLOW COOL AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT
LOOKS TO BE MIXING OUT A BIT AS THE CLOUDS HAVE EVAPORATED. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE COOL AIR AT BAR ACROSS THE
BORDER.

ON THURSDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD
BRING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS DURING THE DAY. BACKING FLOW ALOFT WITH
THE ADVANCING WEST COAST H500 TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS FROM 72
TO 85

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
WORKS TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS PATTERN TRANSITION AND AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS MAINTAINED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY -
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR FARGO THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA NORTH OF MINOT IS FORECAST TO RETURN NORTH TO CANADA AND
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT IN ND. A SURFACE TOUGH IN MONTANA WILL
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF FORECAST. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 172328
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST - BOWMAN AND HETTINGER
AND AMIDON AREAS - WAS EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTH OF
THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ENDING THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS BY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH
LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP AN EAST/SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THERE ARE SEVERAL FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TONIGHT.
FIRST..THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. WILL INCLUDE A
PERIOD OF SPRINKLES SOUTHWEST FOR THIS. ABUNDANT DRY AIR BENEATH
CLOUD BASES SHOULD CAUSE EVAPORATION AND SEE LITTLE REACHING THE
GROUND.

SECOND...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHALLOW COOL AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT
LOOKS TO BE MIXING OUT A BIT AS THE CLOUDS HAVE EVAPORATED. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE COOL AIR AT BAR ACROSS THE
BORDER.

ON THURSDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD
BRING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS DURING THE DAY. BACKING FLOW ALOFT WITH
THE ADVANCING WEST COAST H500 TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS FROM 72
TO 85

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
WORKS TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS PATTERN TRANSITION AND AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS MAINTAINED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY -
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR FARGO THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA NORTH OF MINOT IS FORECAST TO RETURN NORTH TO CANADA AND
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT IN ND. A SURFACE TOUGH IN MONTANA WILL
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF FORECAST. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 172026
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
326 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THERE ARE SEVERAL FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TONIGHT.
FIRST..THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. WILL INCLUDE A
PERIOD OF SPRINKLES SOUTHWEST FOR THIS. ABUNDANT DRY AIR BENEATH
CLOUD BASES SHOULD CAUSE EVAPORATION AND SEE LITTLE REACHING THE
GROUND.

SECOND...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHALLOW COOL AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT
LOOKS TO BE MIXING OUT A BIT AS THE CLOUDS HAVE EVAPORATED. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE COOL AIR AT BAR ACROSS THE
BORDER.

ON THURSDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD
BRING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS DURING THE DAY. BACKING FLOW ALOFT WITH
THE ADVANCING WEST COAST H500 TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS FROM 72
TO 85


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
WORKS TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS PATTERN TRANSITION AND AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS MAINTAINED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY -
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR FARGO THROUGH BIRTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA NORTH OF MINOT IS FORECAST TO RETURN NORTH TO CANADA AND
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT IN ND. A SURFACE TOUGH IN MONTANA WILL
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
TO INCLUDE IN TAF FORECAST. VFR EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KBIS 172026
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
326 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THERE ARE SEVERAL FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TONIGHT.
FIRST..THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. WILL INCLUDE A
PERIOD OF SPRINKLES SOUTHWEST FOR THIS. ABUNDANT DRY AIR BENEATH
CLOUD BASES SHOULD CAUSE EVAPORATION AND SEE LITTLE REACHING THE
GROUND.

SECOND...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHALLOW COOL AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT
LOOKS TO BE MIXING OUT A BIT AS THE CLOUDS HAVE EVAPORATED. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE COOL AIR AT BAR ACROSS THE
BORDER.

ON THURSDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD
BRING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS DURING THE DAY. BACKING FLOW ALOFT WITH
THE ADVANCING WEST COAST H500 TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS FROM 72
TO 85


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

RIDGE AXIS PUSHES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
WORKS TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS PATTERN TRANSITION AND AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS MAINTAINED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY -
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR FARGO THROUGH BIRTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA NORTH OF MINOT IS FORECAST TO RETURN NORTH TO CANADA AND
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT IN ND. A SURFACE TOUGH IN MONTANA WILL
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
TO INCLUDE IN TAF FORECAST. VFR EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA










000
FXUS63 KBIS 171732
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1232 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SHALLOW COOL LAYER THAT SUPPORTED STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
IS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP MORE OR LESS AS PLANNED. THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT COOL FAR NORTH. NEW MODELS GENERATE
A TINY BIT OF QPF ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. AT MOST THINK
THIS WILL BE VIRGA AND WILL LEAVE POPS NIL FOR TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL BRINGING LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG TO ROLETTE COUNTY. ADDED CLOUDS...SOME FOG
FOR THE MORNING HERE. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES THERE AS
THE STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST FOR AWHILE THEN BREAK UP/ERODE IN THE
AFTERNOON HEATING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL ADDRESS THAT IN
MORNING UPDATE. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING CLOUDS A BIT TOWARDS CURRENT
TRENDS...REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT BRUSHES EASTERN AREAS TODAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING THIS FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS STILL
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TODAY MAINLY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AREAS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ON THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL START OUT THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS LEE
SIDE TROF DEEPENS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WHICH WILL
ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE THOUGH PROBLEM WITH INITIATING CONVECTION WILL
BE STRONG CAP IN PLACE. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...RIDGE
WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW SHIFTING
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WHILE SURFACE LOW
CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND PUSHES EAST BRINGING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS PUSHING IN COMBINED
WITH CAP WEAKENING...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 35-40 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.

UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. RIDGE WILL THEN SLOWLY WORK EASTERLY BRINGING
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 171732
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1232 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SHALLOW COOL LAYER THAT SUPPORTED STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
IS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP MORE OR LESS AS PLANNED. THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT COOL FAR NORTH. NEW MODELS GENERATE
A TINY BIT OF QPF ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. AT MOST THINK
THIS WILL BE VIRGA AND WILL LEAVE POPS NIL FOR TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL BRINGING LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG TO ROLETTE COUNTY. ADDED CLOUDS...SOME FOG
FOR THE MORNING HERE. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES THERE AS
THE STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST FOR AWHILE THEN BREAK UP/ERODE IN THE
AFTERNOON HEATING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL ADDRESS THAT IN
MORNING UPDATE. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING CLOUDS A BIT TOWARDS CURRENT
TRENDS...REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT BRUSHES EASTERN AREAS TODAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING THIS FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS STILL
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TODAY MAINLY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AREAS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ON THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL START OUT THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS LEE
SIDE TROF DEEPENS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WHICH WILL
ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE THOUGH PROBLEM WITH INITIATING CONVECTION WILL
BE STRONG CAP IN PLACE. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...RIDGE
WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW SHIFTING
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WHILE SURFACE LOW
CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND PUSHES EAST BRINGING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS PUSHING IN COMBINED
WITH CAP WEAKENING...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 35-40 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.

UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. RIDGE WILL THEN SLOWLY WORK EASTERLY BRINGING
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 171400
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
900 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL BRINGING LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG TO ROLETTE COUNTY. ADDED CLOUDS...SOME FOG
FOR THE MORNING HERE. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES THERE AS
THE STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST FOR AWHILE THEN BREAK UP/ERODE IN THE
AFTERNOON HEATING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL ADDRESS THAT IN
MORNING UPDATE. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING CLOUDS A BIT TOWARDS CURRENT
TRENDS...REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT BRUSHES EASTERN AREAS TODAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING THIS FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS STILL
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TODAY MAINLY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AREAS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ON THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL START OUT THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS LEE
SIDE TROF DEEPENS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WHICH WILL
ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE THOUGH PROBLEM WITH INITIATING CONVECTION WILL
BE STRONG CAP IN PLACE. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...RIDGE
WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW SHIFTING
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WHILE SURFACE LOW
CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND PUSHES EAST BRINGING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS PUSHING IN COMBINED
WITH CAP WEAKENING...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 35-40 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.

UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. RIDGE WILL THEN SLOWLY WORK EASTERLY BRINGING
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WATCHING KMOT FOR POSSIBLE STRATUS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST
AS THE SHALLOW COOL AIR SLIPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A BACK DOOR
FRONT. FOR NOW BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 171400
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
900 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL BRINGING LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG TO ROLETTE COUNTY. ADDED CLOUDS...SOME FOG
FOR THE MORNING HERE. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES THERE AS
THE STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST FOR AWHILE THEN BREAK UP/ERODE IN THE
AFTERNOON HEATING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL ADDRESS THAT IN
MORNING UPDATE. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING CLOUDS A BIT TOWARDS CURRENT
TRENDS...REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT BRUSHES EASTERN AREAS TODAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING THIS FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS STILL
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TODAY MAINLY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AREAS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ON THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL START OUT THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS LEE
SIDE TROF DEEPENS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WHICH WILL
ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE THOUGH PROBLEM WITH INITIATING CONVECTION WILL
BE STRONG CAP IN PLACE. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...RIDGE
WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW SHIFTING
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WHILE SURFACE LOW
CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND PUSHES EAST BRINGING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS PUSHING IN COMBINED
WITH CAP WEAKENING...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 35-40 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.

UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. RIDGE WILL THEN SLOWLY WORK EASTERLY BRINGING
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WATCHING KMOT FOR POSSIBLE STRATUS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST
AS THE SHALLOW COOL AIR SLIPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A BACK DOOR
FRONT. FOR NOW BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities