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000
FXUS63 KBIS 272232
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
532 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH 60S F
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ALSO ADDED A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO
THE FAR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARMING TREND AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHT THE
SHORT TERM.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NEBRASKA. SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT MIXED LAYER CAPE
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SUFFICIENT MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THINKING CLOUD
COVER WAS INHIBITING SURFACE HEATING ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FAR SOUTHWEST...AND MAY SEE SOME CUMULUS
FORMATION AND CONVECTION WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST...MOVING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BY EARLY THIS EVENING THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING
EAST AND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FAR SOUTH CENTRAL.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TONIGHT TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. SOME MODELS HINT AT SMALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...AND WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION THERE LATER TONIGHT.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS REGARDING FOG FORMATION. PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM BRINGING SOME
HUMID AIR TO THE REGION BENEATH THE LARGE-SCALE WESTERN RIDGE.
FRIDAY MORNING THIS MOISTURE EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST AS DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE PATCHY FOG LASTED 2-3
HOURS THIS MORNING IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT NOT
MUCH OCCURRED IN THE SURROUNDING AREAS. COLLABORATED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND OPTED TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF FOG THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE THE MAIN FEATURE FRIDAY IS THE DRIER AND WARMER AIR
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS
NEXT WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME. AS WE TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ENERGY ALOFT AND A SFC BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER 80S EAST TO UPPER 90S WEST ON
SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT INTO
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE
80S FOR MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE
CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH
ANY SHORTWAVES WHICH TRAVEL THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH
ANY ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. KJMS/KBIS HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TO BE IMPACTED. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD





000
FXUS63 KBIS 272232
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
532 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH 60S F
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ALSO ADDED A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO
THE FAR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARMING TREND AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHT THE
SHORT TERM.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NEBRASKA. SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT MIXED LAYER CAPE
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SUFFICIENT MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THINKING CLOUD
COVER WAS INHIBITING SURFACE HEATING ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FAR SOUTHWEST...AND MAY SEE SOME CUMULUS
FORMATION AND CONVECTION WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST...MOVING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BY EARLY THIS EVENING THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING
EAST AND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FAR SOUTH CENTRAL.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TONIGHT TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. SOME MODELS HINT AT SMALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...AND WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION THERE LATER TONIGHT.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS REGARDING FOG FORMATION. PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM BRINGING SOME
HUMID AIR TO THE REGION BENEATH THE LARGE-SCALE WESTERN RIDGE.
FRIDAY MORNING THIS MOISTURE EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST AS DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE PATCHY FOG LASTED 2-3
HOURS THIS MORNING IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT NOT
MUCH OCCURRED IN THE SURROUNDING AREAS. COLLABORATED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND OPTED TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF FOG THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE THE MAIN FEATURE FRIDAY IS THE DRIER AND WARMER AIR
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS
NEXT WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME. AS WE TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ENERGY ALOFT AND A SFC BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER 80S EAST TO UPPER 90S WEST ON
SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT INTO
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE
80S FOR MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE
CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH
ANY SHORTWAVES WHICH TRAVEL THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH
ANY ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. KJMS/KBIS HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TO BE IMPACTED. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 272232
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
532 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH 60S F
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ALSO ADDED A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO
THE FAR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARMING TREND AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHT THE
SHORT TERM.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NEBRASKA. SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT MIXED LAYER CAPE
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SUFFICIENT MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THINKING CLOUD
COVER WAS INHIBITING SURFACE HEATING ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FAR SOUTHWEST...AND MAY SEE SOME CUMULUS
FORMATION AND CONVECTION WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST...MOVING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BY EARLY THIS EVENING THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING
EAST AND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FAR SOUTH CENTRAL.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TONIGHT TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. SOME MODELS HINT AT SMALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...AND WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION THERE LATER TONIGHT.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS REGARDING FOG FORMATION. PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM BRINGING SOME
HUMID AIR TO THE REGION BENEATH THE LARGE-SCALE WESTERN RIDGE.
FRIDAY MORNING THIS MOISTURE EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST AS DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE PATCHY FOG LASTED 2-3
HOURS THIS MORNING IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT NOT
MUCH OCCURRED IN THE SURROUNDING AREAS. COLLABORATED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND OPTED TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF FOG THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE THE MAIN FEATURE FRIDAY IS THE DRIER AND WARMER AIR
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS
NEXT WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME. AS WE TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ENERGY ALOFT AND A SFC BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER 80S EAST TO UPPER 90S WEST ON
SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT INTO
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE
80S FOR MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE
CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH
ANY SHORTWAVES WHICH TRAVEL THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH
ANY ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. KJMS/KBIS HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TO BE IMPACTED. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD





000
FXUS63 KBIS 272232
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
532 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH 60S F
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ALSO ADDED A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO
THE FAR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARMING TREND AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHT THE
SHORT TERM.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NEBRASKA. SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT MIXED LAYER CAPE
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SUFFICIENT MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THINKING CLOUD
COVER WAS INHIBITING SURFACE HEATING ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FAR SOUTHWEST...AND MAY SEE SOME CUMULUS
FORMATION AND CONVECTION WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST...MOVING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BY EARLY THIS EVENING THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING
EAST AND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FAR SOUTH CENTRAL.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TONIGHT TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. SOME MODELS HINT AT SMALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...AND WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION THERE LATER TONIGHT.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS REGARDING FOG FORMATION. PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM BRINGING SOME
HUMID AIR TO THE REGION BENEATH THE LARGE-SCALE WESTERN RIDGE.
FRIDAY MORNING THIS MOISTURE EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST AS DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE PATCHY FOG LASTED 2-3
HOURS THIS MORNING IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT NOT
MUCH OCCURRED IN THE SURROUNDING AREAS. COLLABORATED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND OPTED TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF FOG THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE THE MAIN FEATURE FRIDAY IS THE DRIER AND WARMER AIR
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS
NEXT WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME. AS WE TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ENERGY ALOFT AND A SFC BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER 80S EAST TO UPPER 90S WEST ON
SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT INTO
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE
80S FOR MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE
CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH
ANY SHORTWAVES WHICH TRAVEL THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH
ANY ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. KJMS/KBIS HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TO BE IMPACTED. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 271959
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
259 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARMING TREND AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHT THE
SHORT TERM.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NEBRASKA. SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT MIXED LAYER CAPE
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SUFFICIENT MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THINKING CLOUD
COVER WAS INHIBITING SURFACE HEATING ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FAR SOUTHWEST...AND MAY SEE SOME CUMULUS
FORMATION AND CONVECTION WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST...MOVING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BY EARLY THIS EVENING THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING
EAST AND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FAR SOUTH CENTRAL.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TONIGHT TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. SOME MODELS HINT AT SMALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...AND WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION THERE LATER TONIGHT.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS REGARDING FOG FORMATION. PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM BRINGING SOME
HUMID AIR TO THE REGION BENEATH THE LARGE-SCALE WESTERN RIDGE.
FRIDAY MORNING THIS MOISTURE EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST AS DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE PATCHY FOG LASTED 2-3
HOURS THIS MORNING IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT NOT
MUCH OCCURRED IN THE SURROUNDING AREAS. COLLABORATED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND OPTED TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF FOG THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE THE MAIN FEATURE FRIDAY IS THE DRIER AND WARMER AIR
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS
NEXT WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME. AS WE TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ENERGY ALOFT AND A SFC BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER 80S EAST TO UPPER 90S WEST ON
SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT INTO
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE
80S FOR MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE
CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH
ANY SHORTWAVES WHICH TRAVEL THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH
ANY ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA WITH
SOME HAZE ORIGINATING FROM WILDFIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS IN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS - POSSIBLY
THUNDER - TO FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...BUT WILL NOT MENTION FARTHER NORTH AT
KDIK...KBIS...KJMS TAFS. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE -
ESPECIALLY KMOT/KBIS/KDIK/KJMS MAY ALLOW MORE FOG FORMATION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD LIKELY BE PATCHY AND CONFIDENCE LOW AT
THIS TIME TO MENTION IN LATER HOURS OF TAF PERIOD - 11Z-14Z
FRIDAY. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR BEGINS MOVING INTO KISN AROUND 09Z AND
SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 271959
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
259 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARMING TREND AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHT THE
SHORT TERM.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NEBRASKA. SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT MIXED LAYER CAPE
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SUFFICIENT MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THINKING CLOUD
COVER WAS INHIBITING SURFACE HEATING ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FAR SOUTHWEST...AND MAY SEE SOME CUMULUS
FORMATION AND CONVECTION WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST...MOVING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BY EARLY THIS EVENING THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING
EAST AND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FAR SOUTH CENTRAL.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TONIGHT TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. SOME MODELS HINT AT SMALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...AND WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION THERE LATER TONIGHT.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS REGARDING FOG FORMATION. PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM BRINGING SOME
HUMID AIR TO THE REGION BENEATH THE LARGE-SCALE WESTERN RIDGE.
FRIDAY MORNING THIS MOISTURE EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST AS DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE PATCHY FOG LASTED 2-3
HOURS THIS MORNING IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT NOT
MUCH OCCURRED IN THE SURROUNDING AREAS. COLLABORATED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND OPTED TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF FOG THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE THE MAIN FEATURE FRIDAY IS THE DRIER AND WARMER AIR
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS
NEXT WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME. AS WE TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ENERGY ALOFT AND A SFC BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER 80S EAST TO UPPER 90S WEST ON
SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT INTO
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE
80S FOR MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE
CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH
ANY SHORTWAVES WHICH TRAVEL THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH
ANY ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA WITH
SOME HAZE ORIGINATING FROM WILDFIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS IN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS - POSSIBLY
THUNDER - TO FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...BUT WILL NOT MENTION FARTHER NORTH AT
KDIK...KBIS...KJMS TAFS. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE -
ESPECIALLY KMOT/KBIS/KDIK/KJMS MAY ALLOW MORE FOG FORMATION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD LIKELY BE PATCHY AND CONFIDENCE LOW AT
THIS TIME TO MENTION IN LATER HOURS OF TAF PERIOD - 11Z-14Z
FRIDAY. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR BEGINS MOVING INTO KISN AROUND 09Z AND
SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 271959
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
259 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARMING TREND AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHT THE
SHORT TERM.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NEBRASKA. SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT MIXED LAYER CAPE
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SUFFICIENT MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THINKING CLOUD
COVER WAS INHIBITING SURFACE HEATING ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FAR SOUTHWEST...AND MAY SEE SOME CUMULUS
FORMATION AND CONVECTION WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST...MOVING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BY EARLY THIS EVENING THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING
EAST AND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FAR SOUTH CENTRAL.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TONIGHT TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. SOME MODELS HINT AT SMALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...AND WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION THERE LATER TONIGHT.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS REGARDING FOG FORMATION. PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM BRINGING SOME
HUMID AIR TO THE REGION BENEATH THE LARGE-SCALE WESTERN RIDGE.
FRIDAY MORNING THIS MOISTURE EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST AS DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE PATCHY FOG LASTED 2-3
HOURS THIS MORNING IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT NOT
MUCH OCCURRED IN THE SURROUNDING AREAS. COLLABORATED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND OPTED TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF FOG THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE THE MAIN FEATURE FRIDAY IS THE DRIER AND WARMER AIR
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS
NEXT WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME. AS WE TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ENERGY ALOFT AND A SFC BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER 80S EAST TO UPPER 90S WEST ON
SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT INTO
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE
80S FOR MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE
CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH
ANY SHORTWAVES WHICH TRAVEL THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH
ANY ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA WITH
SOME HAZE ORIGINATING FROM WILDFIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS IN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS - POSSIBLY
THUNDER - TO FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...BUT WILL NOT MENTION FARTHER NORTH AT
KDIK...KBIS...KJMS TAFS. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE -
ESPECIALLY KMOT/KBIS/KDIK/KJMS MAY ALLOW MORE FOG FORMATION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD LIKELY BE PATCHY AND CONFIDENCE LOW AT
THIS TIME TO MENTION IN LATER HOURS OF TAF PERIOD - 11Z-14Z
FRIDAY. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR BEGINS MOVING INTO KISN AROUND 09Z AND
SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 271737
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO RISE THAN EXPECTED...BUT NO BIG
CHANGES ON OVERALL MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE DAY. CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR MODEL EACH HOUR INDICATE WANING CHANCES FOR
ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE TRIMMED CHANCES IN NORTH
DAKOTA TO SLIGHT CHANCE. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER...KEPT CHANCE
MENTIONS IN THE SOUTH WITH MODELS INDICATING AFTERNOON CAPE AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WAS DISSIPATING
ACROSS THE REGION...THUS THE EARLIER UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY FOG
UNTIL AROUND 10 AM CDT LOOKS ON TRACK.

OTHERWISE ONLY HOURLY TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WERE UPDATED
WITH NO CHANGES IN THE OVERALL EXPECTED TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONVECTION TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
UPSTREAM NEXT SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING. STILL
A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BUT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BEGAN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH MID TO LATE MORNING. STILL JUST LOOKING AT CHC POPS FAR
SOUTH TODAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE UP TO THE I94 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE
SOUTH HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WYOMING...TRIGGERING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE
SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA BORDER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
EXPAND...NUDGING INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST...SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT. THURSDAY
WILL ALSO FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER 80S CREEP INTO
THE WEST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING MECHANISMS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A MEAN WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATES TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FRIDAY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. BUT WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FORECAST HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST ON FRIDAY. THEN UPPER 80S
EAST TO UPPER 90S WEST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY...THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WEST...COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
CAPPING IN PLACE AND A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE MEAGER. A MODEL BLEND BRINGS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE PASSES TO OUR EAST AND
WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT HINTING
AT ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS...WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS SHORTWAVES TRAVEL THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA WITH
SOME HAZE ORIGINATING FROM WILDFIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS IN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING EAST MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS - POSSIBLY THUNDER - TO FAR
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT
WILL NOT MENTION FARTHER NORTH AT KDIK...KBIS...KJMS TAFS. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE - ESPECIALLY KMOT/KBIS/KDIK/KJMS MAY ALLOW MORE
FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD LIKELY BE PATCHY AND
CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN LATER HOURS OF TAF
PERIOD - 11Z-14Z FRIDAY. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR BEGINS MOVING INTO KISN
AROUND 09Z AND SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 271737
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO RISE THAN EXPECTED...BUT NO BIG
CHANGES ON OVERALL MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE DAY. CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR MODEL EACH HOUR INDICATE WANING CHANCES FOR
ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE TRIMMED CHANCES IN NORTH
DAKOTA TO SLIGHT CHANCE. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER...KEPT CHANCE
MENTIONS IN THE SOUTH WITH MODELS INDICATING AFTERNOON CAPE AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WAS DISSIPATING
ACROSS THE REGION...THUS THE EARLIER UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY FOG
UNTIL AROUND 10 AM CDT LOOKS ON TRACK.

OTHERWISE ONLY HOURLY TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WERE UPDATED
WITH NO CHANGES IN THE OVERALL EXPECTED TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONVECTION TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
UPSTREAM NEXT SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING. STILL
A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BUT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BEGAN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH MID TO LATE MORNING. STILL JUST LOOKING AT CHC POPS FAR
SOUTH TODAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE UP TO THE I94 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE
SOUTH HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WYOMING...TRIGGERING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE
SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA BORDER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
EXPAND...NUDGING INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST...SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT. THURSDAY
WILL ALSO FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER 80S CREEP INTO
THE WEST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING MECHANISMS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A MEAN WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATES TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FRIDAY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. BUT WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FORECAST HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST ON FRIDAY. THEN UPPER 80S
EAST TO UPPER 90S WEST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY...THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WEST...COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
CAPPING IN PLACE AND A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE MEAGER. A MODEL BLEND BRINGS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE PASSES TO OUR EAST AND
WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT HINTING
AT ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS...WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS SHORTWAVES TRAVEL THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA WITH
SOME HAZE ORIGINATING FROM WILDFIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS IN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING EAST MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS - POSSIBLY THUNDER - TO FAR
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT
WILL NOT MENTION FARTHER NORTH AT KDIK...KBIS...KJMS TAFS. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE - ESPECIALLY KMOT/KBIS/KDIK/KJMS MAY ALLOW MORE
FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD LIKELY BE PATCHY AND
CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN LATER HOURS OF TAF
PERIOD - 11Z-14Z FRIDAY. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR BEGINS MOVING INTO KISN
AROUND 09Z AND SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 271451
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR MODEL EACH HOUR INDICATE WANING CHANCES FOR
ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE TRIMMED CHANCES IN NORTH
DAKOTA TO SLIGHT CHANCE. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER...KEPT CHANCE
MENTIONS IN THE SOUTH WITH MODELS INDICATING AFTERNOON CAPE AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WAS DISSIPATING
ACROSS THE REGION...THUS THE EARLIER UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY FOG
UNTIL AROUND 10 AM CDT LOOKS ON TRACK.

OTHERWISE ONLY HOURLY TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WERE UPDATED
WITH NO CHANGES IN THE OVERALL EXPECTED TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONVECTION TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
UPSTREAM NEXT SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING. STILL
A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BUT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BEGAN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH MID TO LATE MORNING. STILL JUST LOOKING AT CHC POPS FAR
SOUTH TODAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE UP TO THE I94 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE
SOUTH HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WYOMING...TRIGGERING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE
SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA BORDER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
EXPAND...NUDGING INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST...SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT. THURSDAY
WILL ALSO FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER 80S CREEP INTO
THE WEST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING MECHANISMS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A MEAN WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATES TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FRIDAY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. BUT WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FORECAST HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST ON FRIDAY. THEN UPPER 80S
EAST TO UPPER 90S WEST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY...THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WEST...COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
CAPPING IN PLACE AND A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE MEAGER. A MODEL BLEND BRINGS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE PASSES TO OUR EAST AND
WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT HINTING
AT ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS...WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS SHORTWAVES TRAVEL THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA WITH
SOME HAZE ORIGINATING FROM WILDFIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
BAND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF KJMS AND MAY
PROVIDE A SPRINKLE OR TWO THROUGH 18Z. CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...ZH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 271451
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR MODEL EACH HOUR INDICATE WANING CHANCES FOR
ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE TRIMMED CHANCES IN NORTH
DAKOTA TO SLIGHT CHANCE. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER...KEPT CHANCE
MENTIONS IN THE SOUTH WITH MODELS INDICATING AFTERNOON CAPE AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WAS DISSIPATING
ACROSS THE REGION...THUS THE EARLIER UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY FOG
UNTIL AROUND 10 AM CDT LOOKS ON TRACK.

OTHERWISE ONLY HOURLY TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WERE UPDATED
WITH NO CHANGES IN THE OVERALL EXPECTED TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONVECTION TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
UPSTREAM NEXT SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING. STILL
A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BUT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BEGAN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH MID TO LATE MORNING. STILL JUST LOOKING AT CHC POPS FAR
SOUTH TODAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE UP TO THE I94 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE
SOUTH HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WYOMING...TRIGGERING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE
SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA BORDER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
EXPAND...NUDGING INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST...SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT. THURSDAY
WILL ALSO FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER 80S CREEP INTO
THE WEST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING MECHANISMS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A MEAN WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATES TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FRIDAY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. BUT WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FORECAST HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST ON FRIDAY. THEN UPPER 80S
EAST TO UPPER 90S WEST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY...THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WEST...COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
CAPPING IN PLACE AND A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE MEAGER. A MODEL BLEND BRINGS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE PASSES TO OUR EAST AND
WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT HINTING
AT ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS...WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS SHORTWAVES TRAVEL THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA WITH
SOME HAZE ORIGINATING FROM WILDFIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
BAND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF KJMS AND MAY
PROVIDE A SPRINKLE OR TWO THROUGH 18Z. CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...ZH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 271451
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR MODEL EACH HOUR INDICATE WANING CHANCES FOR
ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE TRIMMED CHANCES IN NORTH
DAKOTA TO SLIGHT CHANCE. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER...KEPT CHANCE
MENTIONS IN THE SOUTH WITH MODELS INDICATING AFTERNOON CAPE AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WAS DISSIPATING
ACROSS THE REGION...THUS THE EARLIER UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY FOG
UNTIL AROUND 10 AM CDT LOOKS ON TRACK.

OTHERWISE ONLY HOURLY TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WERE UPDATED
WITH NO CHANGES IN THE OVERALL EXPECTED TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONVECTION TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
UPSTREAM NEXT SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING. STILL
A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BUT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BEGAN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH MID TO LATE MORNING. STILL JUST LOOKING AT CHC POPS FAR
SOUTH TODAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE UP TO THE I94 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE
SOUTH HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WYOMING...TRIGGERING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE
SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA BORDER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
EXPAND...NUDGING INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST...SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT. THURSDAY
WILL ALSO FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER 80S CREEP INTO
THE WEST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING MECHANISMS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A MEAN WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATES TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FRIDAY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. BUT WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FORECAST HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST ON FRIDAY. THEN UPPER 80S
EAST TO UPPER 90S WEST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY...THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WEST...COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
CAPPING IN PLACE AND A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE MEAGER. A MODEL BLEND BRINGS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE PASSES TO OUR EAST AND
WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT HINTING
AT ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS...WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS SHORTWAVES TRAVEL THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA WITH
SOME HAZE ORIGINATING FROM WILDFIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
BAND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF KJMS AND MAY
PROVIDE A SPRINKLE OR TWO THROUGH 18Z. CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...ZH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 271134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONVECTION TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
UPSTREAM NEXT SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING. STILL
A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BUT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BEGAN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH MID TO LATE MORNING. STILL JUST LOOKING AT CHC POPS FAR
SOUTH TODAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE UP TO THE I94 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE
SOUTH HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WYOMING...TRIGGERING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE
SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA BORDER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
EXPAND...NUDGING INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST...SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT. THURSDAY
WILL ALSO FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER 80S CREEP INTO
THE WEST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING MECHANISMS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A MEAN WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATES TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FRIDAY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. BUT WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FORECAST HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST ON FRIDAY. THEN UPPER 80S
EAST TO UPPER 90S WEST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY...THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WEST...COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
CAPPING IN PLACE AND A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE MEAGER. A MODEL BLEND BRINGS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE PASSES TO OUR EAST AND
WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT HINTING
AT ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS...WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS SHORTWAVES TRAVEL THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA WITH
SOME HAZE ORIGINATING FROM WILDFIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
BAND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF KJMS AND MAY
PROVIDE A SPRINKLE OR TWO THROUGH 18Z. CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...ZH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 271134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONVECTION TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
UPSTREAM NEXT SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING. STILL
A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BUT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BEGAN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH MID TO LATE MORNING. STILL JUST LOOKING AT CHC POPS FAR
SOUTH TODAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE UP TO THE I94 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE
SOUTH HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WYOMING...TRIGGERING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE
SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA BORDER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
EXPAND...NUDGING INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST...SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT. THURSDAY
WILL ALSO FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER 80S CREEP INTO
THE WEST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING MECHANISMS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A MEAN WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATES TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FRIDAY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. BUT WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FORECAST HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST ON FRIDAY. THEN UPPER 80S
EAST TO UPPER 90S WEST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY...THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WEST...COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
CAPPING IN PLACE AND A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE MEAGER. A MODEL BLEND BRINGS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE PASSES TO OUR EAST AND
WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT HINTING
AT ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS...WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS SHORTWAVES TRAVEL THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA WITH
SOME HAZE ORIGINATING FROM WILDFIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
BAND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF KJMS AND MAY
PROVIDE A SPRINKLE OR TWO THROUGH 18Z. CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...ZH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 271134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONVECTION TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
UPSTREAM NEXT SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING. STILL
A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BUT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BEGAN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH MID TO LATE MORNING. STILL JUST LOOKING AT CHC POPS FAR
SOUTH TODAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE UP TO THE I94 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE
SOUTH HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WYOMING...TRIGGERING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE
SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA BORDER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
EXPAND...NUDGING INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST...SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT. THURSDAY
WILL ALSO FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER 80S CREEP INTO
THE WEST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING MECHANISMS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A MEAN WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATES TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FRIDAY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. BUT WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FORECAST HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST ON FRIDAY. THEN UPPER 80S
EAST TO UPPER 90S WEST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY...THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WEST...COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
CAPPING IN PLACE AND A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE MEAGER. A MODEL BLEND BRINGS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE PASSES TO OUR EAST AND
WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT HINTING
AT ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS...WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS SHORTWAVES TRAVEL THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA WITH
SOME HAZE ORIGINATING FROM WILDFIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
BAND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF KJMS AND MAY
PROVIDE A SPRINKLE OR TWO THROUGH 18Z. CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...ZH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 271134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONVECTION TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
UPSTREAM NEXT SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING. STILL
A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BUT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BEGAN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH MID TO LATE MORNING. STILL JUST LOOKING AT CHC POPS FAR
SOUTH TODAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE UP TO THE I94 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE
SOUTH HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WYOMING...TRIGGERING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE
SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA BORDER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
EXPAND...NUDGING INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST...SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT. THURSDAY
WILL ALSO FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER 80S CREEP INTO
THE WEST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING MECHANISMS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A MEAN WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATES TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FRIDAY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. BUT WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FORECAST HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST ON FRIDAY. THEN UPPER 80S
EAST TO UPPER 90S WEST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY...THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WEST...COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
CAPPING IN PLACE AND A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE MEAGER. A MODEL BLEND BRINGS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE PASSES TO OUR EAST AND
WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT HINTING
AT ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS...WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS SHORTWAVES TRAVEL THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA WITH
SOME HAZE ORIGINATING FROM WILDFIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
BAND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF KJMS AND MAY
PROVIDE A SPRINKLE OR TWO THROUGH 18Z. CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...ZH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 270807
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
307 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE
SOUTH HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WYOMING...TRIGGERING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE
SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA BORDER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
EXPAND...NUDGING INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST...SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT. THURSDAY
WILL ALSO FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER 80S CREEP INTO
THE WEST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING MECHANISMS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A MEAN WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATES TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FRIDAY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. BUT WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FORECAST HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST ON FRIDAY. THEN UPPER 80S
EAST TO UPPER 90S WEST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY...THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WEST...COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
CAPPING IN PLACE AND A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE MEAGER. A MODEL BLEND BRINGS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE PASSES TO OUR EAST AND
WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT HINTING
AT ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS...WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS SHORTWAVES TRAVEL THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A BAND OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SOME HAZE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES...HAS ENTERED THE AREA AND SHOULD
STICK AROUND AT LEAST UNTIL 12Z ON THURSDAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...ZH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 270807
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
307 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE
SOUTH HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WYOMING...TRIGGERING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE
SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA BORDER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
EXPAND...NUDGING INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST...SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT. THURSDAY
WILL ALSO FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER 80S CREEP INTO
THE WEST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING MECHANISMS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A MEAN WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATES TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FRIDAY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. BUT WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FORECAST HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST ON FRIDAY. THEN UPPER 80S
EAST TO UPPER 90S WEST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY...THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WEST...COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
CAPPING IN PLACE AND A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE MEAGER. A MODEL BLEND BRINGS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE PASSES TO OUR EAST AND
WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT HINTING
AT ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS...WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS SHORTWAVES TRAVEL THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A BAND OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SOME HAZE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES...HAS ENTERED THE AREA AND SHOULD
STICK AROUND AT LEAST UNTIL 12Z ON THURSDAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...ZH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 270514
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1214 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. DID DECIDE TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...AS
A WIDESPREAD BAND OF DENSE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS MOVED
INTO THE AREA. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z ON THURSDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEATLY SHOWS THE WRAPPED UP SYSTEM OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST / BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.

CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR PRODUCED NOTHING MORE THAN
SPRINKLES AND SO EARLIER WE DROPPED POPS FOR THE EVENING. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE FIRING FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING TO THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS...AND JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE HILLS. MOVEMENT WAS EAST-
NORTHEAST. AT THIS RATE IF THEY HELD TOGETHER IT WOULD BE A LONG
TIME GETTING TO NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS
DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT ACTIVITY WILL CROSS INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
NAM12 BRINGS IT IN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 4 AM AND JUST THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...RAP13 SAYS IT WILL NOT MAKE IT...HRRR ALSO SAYS NO GO.

WILL FURTHER DELAY POPS AND PUSH THEM BACK FARTHER TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST / SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER THROUGH DAYBREAK.

HAZE DID REDUCE VISIBILITY AT WILLISTON TO 5 MILES FOR AN HOUR OR
SO EARLIER...NOW BACK TO 10 MILES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

RADAR RETURNS MOVED OVER BISMARCK AND NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED. SOME OF THE HIGHER RETURNS COULD BE
PRODUCING A SPRINKLE OF RAIN AT MOST...FROM WILLISTON THROUGH
HARVEY AND CARRINGTON...AND SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK. WITH THAT
BEING THE MOST INTENSE RAIN HAVE OPTED TO DROP POPS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A LARGE H5 RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST AND ANOTHER IN THE EASTERN CONUS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOW TWO BANDS OF LIGHT RETURNS. ONE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE...AND ONE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE SEEN A FEW
RETURNS APPROACH 40 DBZ IN THE NORTH. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A H5 WAVE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BEST UPPER FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SHORT TERM MODELS
GENERALLY KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-94. THE OUTLIER TO THIS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF...AND FOR NOW WILL
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SPILLING NORTH OF I-94.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO WARRANT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN
REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER...THE LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS THE MARGINAL RISK WELL SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE AND NOT MENTION ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED RANGE.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION THE PATTERN TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA
BORDER...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
MODEL RUNS ALSO HINT AT BRINGING ANOTHER IMPULSE INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MOST
MODELS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF MODEST CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR...THUS
THUNDER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
AND AMPLIFY...WHILE THE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD
FEATURE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ON BOTH DAYS...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY WORK TO CAP
CONVECTION. WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...GIVING US DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A BAND OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SOME HAZE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES...HAS ENTERED THE AREA AND SHOULD
STICK AROUND AT LEAST UNTIL 12Z ON THURSDAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...ZH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 270514
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1214 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. DID DECIDE TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...AS
A WIDESPREAD BAND OF DENSE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS MOVED
INTO THE AREA. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z ON THURSDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEATLY SHOWS THE WRAPPED UP SYSTEM OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST / BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.

CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR PRODUCED NOTHING MORE THAN
SPRINKLES AND SO EARLIER WE DROPPED POPS FOR THE EVENING. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE FIRING FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING TO THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS...AND JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE HILLS. MOVEMENT WAS EAST-
NORTHEAST. AT THIS RATE IF THEY HELD TOGETHER IT WOULD BE A LONG
TIME GETTING TO NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS
DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT ACTIVITY WILL CROSS INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
NAM12 BRINGS IT IN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 4 AM AND JUST THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...RAP13 SAYS IT WILL NOT MAKE IT...HRRR ALSO SAYS NO GO.

WILL FURTHER DELAY POPS AND PUSH THEM BACK FARTHER TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST / SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER THROUGH DAYBREAK.

HAZE DID REDUCE VISIBILITY AT WILLISTON TO 5 MILES FOR AN HOUR OR
SO EARLIER...NOW BACK TO 10 MILES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

RADAR RETURNS MOVED OVER BISMARCK AND NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED. SOME OF THE HIGHER RETURNS COULD BE
PRODUCING A SPRINKLE OF RAIN AT MOST...FROM WILLISTON THROUGH
HARVEY AND CARRINGTON...AND SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK. WITH THAT
BEING THE MOST INTENSE RAIN HAVE OPTED TO DROP POPS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A LARGE H5 RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST AND ANOTHER IN THE EASTERN CONUS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOW TWO BANDS OF LIGHT RETURNS. ONE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE...AND ONE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE SEEN A FEW
RETURNS APPROACH 40 DBZ IN THE NORTH. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A H5 WAVE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BEST UPPER FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SHORT TERM MODELS
GENERALLY KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-94. THE OUTLIER TO THIS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF...AND FOR NOW WILL
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SPILLING NORTH OF I-94.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO WARRANT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN
REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER...THE LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS THE MARGINAL RISK WELL SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE AND NOT MENTION ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED RANGE.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION THE PATTERN TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA
BORDER...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
MODEL RUNS ALSO HINT AT BRINGING ANOTHER IMPULSE INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MOST
MODELS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF MODEST CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR...THUS
THUNDER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
AND AMPLIFY...WHILE THE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD
FEATURE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ON BOTH DAYS...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY WORK TO CAP
CONVECTION. WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...GIVING US DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A BAND OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SOME HAZE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES...HAS ENTERED THE AREA AND SHOULD
STICK AROUND AT LEAST UNTIL 12Z ON THURSDAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...ZH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 270514
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1214 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. DID DECIDE TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...AS
A WIDESPREAD BAND OF DENSE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS MOVED
INTO THE AREA. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z ON THURSDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEATLY SHOWS THE WRAPPED UP SYSTEM OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST / BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.

CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR PRODUCED NOTHING MORE THAN
SPRINKLES AND SO EARLIER WE DROPPED POPS FOR THE EVENING. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE FIRING FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING TO THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS...AND JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE HILLS. MOVEMENT WAS EAST-
NORTHEAST. AT THIS RATE IF THEY HELD TOGETHER IT WOULD BE A LONG
TIME GETTING TO NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS
DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT ACTIVITY WILL CROSS INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
NAM12 BRINGS IT IN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 4 AM AND JUST THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...RAP13 SAYS IT WILL NOT MAKE IT...HRRR ALSO SAYS NO GO.

WILL FURTHER DELAY POPS AND PUSH THEM BACK FARTHER TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST / SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER THROUGH DAYBREAK.

HAZE DID REDUCE VISIBILITY AT WILLISTON TO 5 MILES FOR AN HOUR OR
SO EARLIER...NOW BACK TO 10 MILES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

RADAR RETURNS MOVED OVER BISMARCK AND NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED. SOME OF THE HIGHER RETURNS COULD BE
PRODUCING A SPRINKLE OF RAIN AT MOST...FROM WILLISTON THROUGH
HARVEY AND CARRINGTON...AND SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK. WITH THAT
BEING THE MOST INTENSE RAIN HAVE OPTED TO DROP POPS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A LARGE H5 RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST AND ANOTHER IN THE EASTERN CONUS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOW TWO BANDS OF LIGHT RETURNS. ONE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE...AND ONE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE SEEN A FEW
RETURNS APPROACH 40 DBZ IN THE NORTH. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A H5 WAVE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BEST UPPER FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SHORT TERM MODELS
GENERALLY KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-94. THE OUTLIER TO THIS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF...AND FOR NOW WILL
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SPILLING NORTH OF I-94.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO WARRANT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN
REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER...THE LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS THE MARGINAL RISK WELL SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE AND NOT MENTION ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED RANGE.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION THE PATTERN TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA
BORDER...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
MODEL RUNS ALSO HINT AT BRINGING ANOTHER IMPULSE INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MOST
MODELS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF MODEST CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR...THUS
THUNDER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
AND AMPLIFY...WHILE THE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD
FEATURE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ON BOTH DAYS...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY WORK TO CAP
CONVECTION. WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...GIVING US DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A BAND OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SOME HAZE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES...HAS ENTERED THE AREA AND SHOULD
STICK AROUND AT LEAST UNTIL 12Z ON THURSDAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...ZH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 270514
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1214 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. DID DECIDE TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...AS
A WIDESPREAD BAND OF DENSE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS MOVED
INTO THE AREA. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z ON THURSDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEATLY SHOWS THE WRAPPED UP SYSTEM OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST / BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.

CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR PRODUCED NOTHING MORE THAN
SPRINKLES AND SO EARLIER WE DROPPED POPS FOR THE EVENING. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE FIRING FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING TO THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS...AND JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE HILLS. MOVEMENT WAS EAST-
NORTHEAST. AT THIS RATE IF THEY HELD TOGETHER IT WOULD BE A LONG
TIME GETTING TO NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS
DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT ACTIVITY WILL CROSS INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
NAM12 BRINGS IT IN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 4 AM AND JUST THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...RAP13 SAYS IT WILL NOT MAKE IT...HRRR ALSO SAYS NO GO.

WILL FURTHER DELAY POPS AND PUSH THEM BACK FARTHER TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST / SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER THROUGH DAYBREAK.

HAZE DID REDUCE VISIBILITY AT WILLISTON TO 5 MILES FOR AN HOUR OR
SO EARLIER...NOW BACK TO 10 MILES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

RADAR RETURNS MOVED OVER BISMARCK AND NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED. SOME OF THE HIGHER RETURNS COULD BE
PRODUCING A SPRINKLE OF RAIN AT MOST...FROM WILLISTON THROUGH
HARVEY AND CARRINGTON...AND SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK. WITH THAT
BEING THE MOST INTENSE RAIN HAVE OPTED TO DROP POPS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A LARGE H5 RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST AND ANOTHER IN THE EASTERN CONUS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOW TWO BANDS OF LIGHT RETURNS. ONE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE...AND ONE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE SEEN A FEW
RETURNS APPROACH 40 DBZ IN THE NORTH. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A H5 WAVE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BEST UPPER FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SHORT TERM MODELS
GENERALLY KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-94. THE OUTLIER TO THIS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF...AND FOR NOW WILL
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SPILLING NORTH OF I-94.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO WARRANT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN
REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER...THE LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS THE MARGINAL RISK WELL SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE AND NOT MENTION ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED RANGE.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION THE PATTERN TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA
BORDER...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
MODEL RUNS ALSO HINT AT BRINGING ANOTHER IMPULSE INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MOST
MODELS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF MODEST CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR...THUS
THUNDER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
AND AMPLIFY...WHILE THE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD
FEATURE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ON BOTH DAYS...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY WORK TO CAP
CONVECTION. WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...GIVING US DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A BAND OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SOME HAZE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES...HAS ENTERED THE AREA AND SHOULD
STICK AROUND AT LEAST UNTIL 12Z ON THURSDAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...ZH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 270246
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
946 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEATLY SHOWS THE WRAPPED UP SYSTEM OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST / BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.

CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR PRODUCED NOTHING MORE THAN
SPRINKLES AND SO EARLIER WE DROPPED POPS FOR THE EVENING. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE FIRING FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING TO THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS...AND JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE HILLS. MOVEMENT WAS EAST-
NORTHEAST. AT THIS RATE IF THEY HELD TOGETHER IT WOULD BE A LONG
TIME GETTING TO NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS
DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT ACTIVITY WILL CROSS INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
NAM12 BRINGS IT IN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 4 AM AND JUST THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...RAP13 SAYS IT WILL NOT MAKE IT...HRRR ALSO SAYS NO GO.

WILL FURTHER DELAY POPS AND PUSH THEM BACK FARTHER TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST / SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER THROUGH DAYBREAK.

HAZE DID REDUCE VISIBILITY AT WILLISTON TO 5 MILES FOR AN HOUR OR
SO EARLIER...NOW BACK TO 10 MILES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

RADAR RETURNS MOVED OVER BISMARCK AND NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED. SOME OF THE HIGHER RETURNS COULD BE
PRODUCING A SPRINKLE OF RAIN AT MOST...FROM WILLISTON THROUGH
HARVEY AND CARRINGTON...AND SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK. WITH THAT
BEING THE MOST INTENSE RAIN HAVE OPTED TO DROP POPS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A LARGE H5 RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST AND ANOTHER IN THE EASTERN CONUS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOW TWO BANDS OF LIGHT RETURNS. ONE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE...AND ONE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE SEEN A FEW
RETURNS APPROACH 40 DBZ IN THE NORTH. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A H5 WAVE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BEST UPPER FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SHORT TERM MODELS
GENERALLY KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-94. THE OUTLIER TO THIS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF...AND FOR NOW WILL
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SPILLING NORTH OF I-94.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO WARRANT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN
REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER...THE LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS THE MARGINAL RISK WELL SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE AND NOT MENTION ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED RANGE.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION THE PATTERN TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA
BORDER...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
MODEL RUNS ALSO HINT AT BRINGING ANOTHER IMPULSE INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MOST
MODELS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF MODEST CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR...THUS
THUNDER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
AND AMPLIFY...WHILE THE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD
FEATURE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ON BOTH DAYS...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY WORK TO CAP
CONVECTION. WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...GIVING US DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE CHANCES WERE SO SMALL THAT NO MENTION
WAS INCLUDED IN THE KDIK NOR KBIS TAF. SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES
HAD SPREAD OVER THE REGION. THE SMOKE WAS AT HIGH LEVELS AND THE
MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR IT TO REDUCE SURFACE VISIBILITY WOULD BE AT
KISN...POSSIBLY TO 6SM FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...JPM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 262350
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

RADAR RETURNS MOVED OVER BISMARCK AND NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED. SOME OF THE HIGHER RETURNS COULD BE
PRODUCING A SPRINKLE OF RAIN AT MOST...FROM WILLISTON THROUGH
HARVEY AND CARRINGTON...AND SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK. WITH THAT
BEING THE MOST INTENSE RAIN HAVE OPTED TO DROP POPS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A LARGE H5 RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST AND ANOTHER IN THE EASTERN CONUS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOW TWO BANDS OF LIGHT RETURNS. ONE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE...AND ONE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE SEEN A FEW
RETURNS APPROACH 40 DBZ IN THE NORTH. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A H5 WAVE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BEST UPPER FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SHORT TERM MODELS
GENERALLY KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-94. THE OUTLIER TO THIS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF...AND FOR NOW WILL
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SPILLING NORTH OF I-94.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO WARRANT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN
REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER...THE LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS THE MARGINAL RISK WELL SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE AND NOT MENTION ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED RANGE.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION THE PATTERN TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA
BORDER...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
MODEL RUNS ALSO HINT AT BRINGING ANOTHER IMPULSE INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MOST
MODELS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF MODEST CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR...THUS
THUNDER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
AND AMPLIFY...WHILE THE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD
FEATURE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ON BOTH DAYS...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY WORK TO CAP
CONVECTION. WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...GIVING US DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE CHANCES WERE SO SMALL THAT NO MENTION
WAS INCLUDED IN THE KDIK NOR KBIS TAF. SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES
HAD SPREAD OVER THE REGION. THE SMOKE WAS AT HIGH LEVELS AND IS
NOT FORECAST TO REDUCE SURFACE VISIBILITY IN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...JPM




000
FXUS63 KBIS 262350
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

RADAR RETURNS MOVED OVER BISMARCK AND NOTHING MORE THAN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED. SOME OF THE HIGHER RETURNS COULD BE
PRODUCING A SPRINKLE OF RAIN AT MOST...FROM WILLISTON THROUGH
HARVEY AND CARRINGTON...AND SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK. WITH THAT
BEING THE MOST INTENSE RAIN HAVE OPTED TO DROP POPS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A LARGE H5 RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST AND ANOTHER IN THE EASTERN CONUS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOW TWO BANDS OF LIGHT RETURNS. ONE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE...AND ONE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE SEEN A FEW
RETURNS APPROACH 40 DBZ IN THE NORTH. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A H5 WAVE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BEST UPPER FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SHORT TERM MODELS
GENERALLY KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-94. THE OUTLIER TO THIS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF...AND FOR NOW WILL
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SPILLING NORTH OF I-94.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO WARRANT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN
REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER...THE LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS THE MARGINAL RISK WELL SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE AND NOT MENTION ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED RANGE.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION THE PATTERN TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA
BORDER...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
MODEL RUNS ALSO HINT AT BRINGING ANOTHER IMPULSE INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MOST
MODELS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF MODEST CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR...THUS
THUNDER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
AND AMPLIFY...WHILE THE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD
FEATURE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ON BOTH DAYS...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY WORK TO CAP
CONVECTION. WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...GIVING US DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE CHANCES WERE SO SMALL THAT NO MENTION
WAS INCLUDED IN THE KDIK NOR KBIS TAF. SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES
HAD SPREAD OVER THE REGION. THE SMOKE WAS AT HIGH LEVELS AND IS
NOT FORECAST TO REDUCE SURFACE VISIBILITY IN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...JPM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 261931
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A LARGE H5 RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST AND ANOTHER IN THE EASTERN CONUS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOW TWO BANDS OF LIGHT RETURNS. ONE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE...AND ONE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE SEEN A FEW
RETURNS APPROACH 40 DBZ IN THE NORTH. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A H5 WAVE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BEST UPPER FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SHORT TERM MODELS
GENERALLY KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-94. THE OUTLIER TO THIS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF...AND FOR NOW WILL
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SPILLING NORTH OF I-94.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO WARRANT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN REGARDS
TO SEVERE WEATHER...THE LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS THE MARGINAL RISK WELL SOUTH OF NORTH
DAKOTA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE AND NOT MENTION ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED RANGE.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION THE PATTERN TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA
BORDER...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
MODEL RUNS ALSO HINT AT BRINGING ANOTHER IMPULSE INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MOST
MODELS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF MODEST CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR...THUS
THUNDER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
AND AMPLIFY...WHILE THE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD
FEATURE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ON BOTH DAYS...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY WORK TO CAP
CONVECTION. WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...GIVING US DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
MAINLY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AERODROMES...BUT THOSE
CHANCES APPEAR TOO SMALL TO INTRODUCE INTO THE TAF. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...CK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 261931
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A LARGE H5 RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST AND ANOTHER IN THE EASTERN CONUS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOW TWO BANDS OF LIGHT RETURNS. ONE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE...AND ONE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE SEEN A FEW
RETURNS APPROACH 40 DBZ IN THE NORTH. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A H5 WAVE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BEST UPPER FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SHORT TERM MODELS
GENERALLY KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-94. THE OUTLIER TO THIS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF...AND FOR NOW WILL
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SPILLING NORTH OF I-94.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO WARRANT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN REGARDS
TO SEVERE WEATHER...THE LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS THE MARGINAL RISK WELL SOUTH OF NORTH
DAKOTA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE AND NOT MENTION ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED RANGE.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION THE PATTERN TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA
BORDER...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
MODEL RUNS ALSO HINT AT BRINGING ANOTHER IMPULSE INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MOST
MODELS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF MODEST CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR...THUS
THUNDER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
AND AMPLIFY...WHILE THE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD
FEATURE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ON BOTH DAYS...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY WORK TO CAP
CONVECTION. WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...GIVING US DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
MAINLY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AERODROMES...BUT THOSE
CHANCES APPEAR TOO SMALL TO INTRODUCE INTO THE TAF. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...CK





000
FXUS63 KBIS 261931
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A LARGE H5 RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST AND ANOTHER IN THE EASTERN CONUS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOW TWO BANDS OF LIGHT RETURNS. ONE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE...AND ONE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE SEEN A FEW
RETURNS APPROACH 40 DBZ IN THE NORTH. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A H5 WAVE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BEST UPPER FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SHORT TERM MODELS
GENERALLY KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-94. THE OUTLIER TO THIS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF...AND FOR NOW WILL
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SPILLING NORTH OF I-94.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO WARRANT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN REGARDS
TO SEVERE WEATHER...THE LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS THE MARGINAL RISK WELL SOUTH OF NORTH
DAKOTA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE AND NOT MENTION ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED RANGE.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION THE PATTERN TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA
BORDER...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
MODEL RUNS ALSO HINT AT BRINGING ANOTHER IMPULSE INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MOST
MODELS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF MODEST CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR...THUS
THUNDER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
AND AMPLIFY...WHILE THE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD
FEATURE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ON BOTH DAYS...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY WORK TO CAP
CONVECTION. WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...GIVING US DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
MAINLY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AERODROMES...BUT THOSE
CHANCES APPEAR TOO SMALL TO INTRODUCE INTO THE TAF. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...CK





000
FXUS63 KBIS 261931
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A LARGE H5 RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST AND ANOTHER IN THE EASTERN CONUS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOW TWO BANDS OF LIGHT RETURNS. ONE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE...AND ONE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE SEEN A FEW
RETURNS APPROACH 40 DBZ IN THE NORTH. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A H5 WAVE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BEST UPPER FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SHORT TERM MODELS
GENERALLY KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-94. THE OUTLIER TO THIS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF...AND FOR NOW WILL
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SPILLING NORTH OF I-94.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO WARRANT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN REGARDS
TO SEVERE WEATHER...THE LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS THE MARGINAL RISK WELL SOUTH OF NORTH
DAKOTA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE AND NOT MENTION ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED RANGE.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION THE PATTERN TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA
BORDER...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
MODEL RUNS ALSO HINT AT BRINGING ANOTHER IMPULSE INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MOST
MODELS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF MODEST CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR...THUS
THUNDER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
AND AMPLIFY...WHILE THE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD
FEATURE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ON BOTH DAYS...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY WORK TO CAP
CONVECTION. WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...GIVING US DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
MAINLY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AERODROMES...BUT THOSE
CHANCES APPEAR TOO SMALL TO INTRODUCE INTO THE TAF. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...CK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 261927
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A LARGE H5 RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST AND ANOTHER IN THE EASTERN CONUS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOW TWO BANDS OF LIGHT RETURNS. ONE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE...AND ONE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE SEEN A FEW
RETURNS APPROACH 40 DBZ IN THE NORTH. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A H5 WAVE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BEST UPPER FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SHORT TERM MODELS
GENERALLY KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-94. THE OUTLIER TO THIS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF...AND FOR NOW WILL
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SPILLING NORTH OF I-94.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH
INSTABLITY FORECAST TO WARRANT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN
REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER...THE LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS THE MARGINAL RISK WELL SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE AND NOT MENTION ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED RANGE.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION THE PATTERN TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA
BORDER...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
MODEL RUNS ALSO HINT AT BRINGING ANOTHER IMPULSE INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MOST
MODELS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF MODEST CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR...THUS
THUNDER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
AND AMPLIFY...WHILE THE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD
FEATURE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ON BOTH DAYS...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY WORK TO CAP
CONVECTION. WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...GIVING US DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
MAINLY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AERODROMES...BUT THOSE
CHANCES APPEAR TOO SMALL TO INTRODUCE INTO THE TAF. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...CK





000
FXUS63 KBIS 261927
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A LARGE H5 RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST AND ANOTHER IN THE EASTERN CONUS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOW TWO BANDS OF LIGHT RETURNS. ONE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE...AND ONE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE SEEN A FEW
RETURNS APPROACH 40 DBZ IN THE NORTH. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A H5 WAVE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BEST UPPER FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SHORT TERM MODELS
GENERALLY KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-94. THE OUTLIER TO THIS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF...AND FOR NOW WILL
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SPILLING NORTH OF I-94.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH
INSTABLITY FORECAST TO WARRANT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN
REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER...THE LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS THE MARGINAL RISK WELL SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE AND NOT MENTION ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED RANGE.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION THE PATTERN TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA
BORDER...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
MODEL RUNS ALSO HINT AT BRINGING ANOTHER IMPULSE INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MOST
MODELS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF MODEST CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR...THUS
THUNDER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
AND AMPLIFY...WHILE THE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD
FEATURE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ON BOTH DAYS...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY WORK TO CAP
CONVECTION. WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...GIVING US DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
MAINLY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AERODROMES...BUT THOSE
CHANCES APPEAR TOO SMALL TO INTRODUCE INTO THE TAF. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...CK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 261927 CCA
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A LARGE H5 RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST AND ANOTHER IN THE EASTERN CONUS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOW TWO BANDS OF LIGHT RETURNS. ONE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE...AND ONE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE SEEN A FEW
RETURNS APPROACH 40 DBZ IN THE NORTH. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A H5 WAVE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BEST UPPER FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SHORT TERM MODELS
GENERALLY KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-94. THE OUTLIER TO THIS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF...AND FOR NOW WILL
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SPILLING NORTH OF I-94.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO WARRANT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN
REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER...THE LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS THE MARGINAL RISK WELL SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE AND NOT MENTION ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED RANGE.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION THE PATTERN TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA
BORDER...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
MODEL RUNS ALSO HINT AT BRINGING ANOTHER IMPULSE INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MOST
MODELS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF MODEST CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR...THUS
THUNDER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
AND AMPLIFY...WHILE THE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD
FEATURE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ON BOTH DAYS...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY WORK TO CAP
CONVECTION. WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...GIVING US DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
MAINLY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AERODROMES...BUT THOSE
CHANCES APPEAR TOO SMALL TO INTRODUCE INTO THE TAF. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...CK





000
FXUS63 KBIS 261927
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A LARGE H5 RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST AND ANOTHER IN THE EASTERN CONUS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOW TWO BANDS OF LIGHT RETURNS. ONE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE...AND ONE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE SEEN A FEW
RETURNS APPROACH 40 DBZ IN THE NORTH. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A H5 WAVE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BEST UPPER FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SHORT TERM MODELS
GENERALLY KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-94. THE OUTLIER TO THIS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF...AND FOR NOW WILL
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SPILLING NORTH OF I-94.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH
INSTABLITY FORECAST TO WARRANT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN
REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER...THE LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS THE MARGINAL RISK WELL SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE AND NOT MENTION ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED RANGE.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION THE PATTERN TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA
BORDER...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
MODEL RUNS ALSO HINT AT BRINGING ANOTHER IMPULSE INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MOST
MODELS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF MODEST CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR...THUS
THUNDER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
AND AMPLIFY...WHILE THE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD
FEATURE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ON BOTH DAYS...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY WORK TO CAP
CONVECTION. WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...GIVING US DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
MAINLY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AERODROMES...BUT THOSE
CHANCES APPEAR TOO SMALL TO INTRODUCE INTO THE TAF. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...CK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 261927 CCA
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A LARGE H5 RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST AND ANOTHER IN THE EASTERN CONUS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOW TWO BANDS OF LIGHT RETURNS. ONE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE...AND ONE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE SEEN A FEW
RETURNS APPROACH 40 DBZ IN THE NORTH. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A H5 WAVE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BEST UPPER FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SHORT TERM MODELS
GENERALLY KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-94. THE OUTLIER TO THIS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF...AND FOR NOW WILL
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SPILLING NORTH OF I-94.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO WARRANT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN
REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER...THE LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS THE MARGINAL RISK WELL SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE AND NOT MENTION ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED RANGE.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION THE PATTERN TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA
BORDER...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
MODEL RUNS ALSO HINT AT BRINGING ANOTHER IMPULSE INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MOST
MODELS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF MODEST CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR...THUS
THUNDER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
AND AMPLIFY...WHILE THE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD
FEATURE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ON BOTH DAYS...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY WORK TO CAP
CONVECTION. WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...GIVING US DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
MAINLY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AERODROMES...BUT THOSE
CHANCES APPEAR TOO SMALL TO INTRODUCE INTO THE TAF. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...CK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 261927 CCA
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A LARGE H5 RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST AND ANOTHER IN THE EASTERN CONUS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOW TWO BANDS OF LIGHT RETURNS. ONE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE...AND ONE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE SEEN A FEW
RETURNS APPROACH 40 DBZ IN THE NORTH. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A H5 WAVE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BEST UPPER FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SHORT TERM MODELS
GENERALLY KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-94. THE OUTLIER TO THIS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF...AND FOR NOW WILL
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SPILLING NORTH OF I-94.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO WARRANT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN
REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER...THE LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS THE MARGINAL RISK WELL SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE AND NOT MENTION ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED RANGE.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION THE PATTERN TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA
BORDER...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
MODEL RUNS ALSO HINT AT BRINGING ANOTHER IMPULSE INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MOST
MODELS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF MODEST CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR...THUS
THUNDER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
AND AMPLIFY...WHILE THE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD
FEATURE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ON BOTH DAYS...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY WORK TO CAP
CONVECTION. WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...GIVING US DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
MAINLY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AERODROMES...BUT THOSE
CHANCES APPEAR TOO SMALL TO INTRODUCE INTO THE TAF. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...CK





000
FXUS63 KBIS 261927 CCA
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A LARGE H5 RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST AND ANOTHER IN THE EASTERN CONUS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOW TWO BANDS OF LIGHT RETURNS. ONE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE...AND ONE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE SEEN A FEW
RETURNS APPROACH 40 DBZ IN THE NORTH. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A H5 WAVE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BEST UPPER FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SHORT TERM MODELS
GENERALLY KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-94. THE OUTLIER TO THIS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF...AND FOR NOW WILL
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SPILLING NORTH OF I-94.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO WARRANT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN
REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER...THE LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS THE MARGINAL RISK WELL SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE AND NOT MENTION ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED RANGE.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION THE PATTERN TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA
BORDER...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
MODEL RUNS ALSO HINT AT BRINGING ANOTHER IMPULSE INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MOST
MODELS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF MODEST CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR...THUS
THUNDER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
AND AMPLIFY...WHILE THE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD
FEATURE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ON BOTH DAYS...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY WORK TO CAP
CONVECTION. WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...GIVING US DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
MAINLY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AERODROMES...BUT THOSE
CHANCES APPEAR TOO SMALL TO INTRODUCE INTO THE TAF. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...CK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 261927
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
227 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A LARGE H5 RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST AND ANOTHER IN THE EASTERN CONUS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOW TWO BANDS OF LIGHT RETURNS. ONE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE...AND ONE SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE SEEN A FEW
RETURNS APPROACH 40 DBZ IN THE NORTH. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH 00Z.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A H5 WAVE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE
ACROSS WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BEST UPPER FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SHORT TERM MODELS
GENERALLY KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
I-94. THE OUTLIER TO THIS HAS BEEN THE ECMWF...AND FOR NOW WILL
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SPILLING NORTH OF I-94.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH
INSTABLITY FORECAST TO WARRANT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN
REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER...THE LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS THE MARGINAL RISK WELL SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL STAY THE COURSE AND NOT MENTION ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED RANGE.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION THE PATTERN TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA
BORDER...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
MODEL RUNS ALSO HINT AT BRINGING ANOTHER IMPULSE INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MOST
MODELS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE OF MODEST CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR...THUS
THUNDER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
AND AMPLIFY...WHILE THE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD
FEATURE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S ON BOTH DAYS...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY WORK TO CAP
CONVECTION. WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...GIVING US DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
MAINLY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AERODROMES...BUT THOSE
CHANCES APPEAR TOO SMALL TO INTRODUCE INTO THE TAF. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...CK





000
FXUS63 KBIS 261636
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1136 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

LATE MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW LIGHT RETURNS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS...AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THINK ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW MORE CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THAN INITIALLY FORECAST...SO HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER A
LITTLE...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST IS
PRODUCING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. BOWMAN RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES
BUT DOUBTFUL IF MUCH IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND. ALREADY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA SO ADJUSTED POPS JUST A BIT
TO COVER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO
THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MODELS INITIALIZED WITH A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 00Z TODAY. HIGH
RES AND GLOBAL MODELS BOTH HINT AT SOME WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BY 12Z FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR FEATURE/H850 COLD ADVECTION
THAT MANIFESTS ITSELF AS NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TODAY AT
WILLISTON. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTION. WILL ADD A
PERIOD OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTHWEST TODAY.

THE NEXT FEATURE TO IMPACT THE STATE WILL INVOLVE SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
US THAT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND PULLED INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH SOME MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE ATMOSPHERE
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKING THROUGH A MEAN WESTERN-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY BRINGS BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD SATURDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. THIS
FRONT DOES HELP PUSH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST
WHICH ESTABLISHES A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS NEAR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
MAINLY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AERODROMES...BUT THOSE
CHANCES APPEAR TOO SMALL TO INTRODUCE INTO THE TAF. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...CK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 261636
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1136 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

LATE MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW LIGHT RETURNS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS...AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THINK ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW MORE CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THAN INITIALLY FORECAST...SO HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER A
LITTLE...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST IS
PRODUCING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. BOWMAN RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES
BUT DOUBTFUL IF MUCH IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND. ALREADY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA SO ADJUSTED POPS JUST A BIT
TO COVER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO
THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MODELS INITIALIZED WITH A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 00Z TODAY. HIGH
RES AND GLOBAL MODELS BOTH HINT AT SOME WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BY 12Z FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR FEATURE/H850 COLD ADVECTION
THAT MANIFESTS ITSELF AS NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TODAY AT
WILLISTON. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTION. WILL ADD A
PERIOD OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTHWEST TODAY.

THE NEXT FEATURE TO IMPACT THE STATE WILL INVOLVE SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
US THAT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND PULLED INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH SOME MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE ATMOSPHERE
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKING THROUGH A MEAN WESTERN-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY BRINGS BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD SATURDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. THIS
FRONT DOES HELP PUSH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST
WHICH ESTABLISHES A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS NEAR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
MAINLY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AERODROMES...BUT THOSE
CHANCES APPEAR TOO SMALL TO INTRODUCE INTO THE TAF. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...CK





000
FXUS63 KBIS 261121
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
621 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST IS
PRODUCING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. BOWMAN RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES
BUT DOUBTFUL IF MUCH IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND. ALREADY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA SO ADJUSTED POPS JUST A BIT
TO COVER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO
THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MODELS INITIALIZED WITH A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 00Z TODAY. HIGH
RES AND GLOBAL MODELS BOTH HINT AT SOME WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BY 12Z FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR FEATURE/H850 COLD ADVECTION
THAT MANIFESTS ITSELF AS NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TODAY AT
WILLISTON. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTION. WILL ADD A
PERIOD OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTHWEST TODAY.

THE NEXT FEATURE TO IMPACT THE STATE WILL INVOLVE SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
US THAT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND PULLED INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH SOME MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE ATMOSPHERE
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKING THROUGH A MEAN WESTERN-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY BRINGS BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD SATURDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. THIS
FRONT DOES HELP PUSH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST
WHICH ESTABLISHES A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS NEAR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT WILL
BE TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 261121
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
621 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST IS
PRODUCING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. BOWMAN RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES
BUT DOUBTFUL IF MUCH IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND. ALREADY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA SO ADJUSTED POPS JUST A BIT
TO COVER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO
THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MODELS INITIALIZED WITH A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 00Z TODAY. HIGH
RES AND GLOBAL MODELS BOTH HINT AT SOME WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BY 12Z FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR FEATURE/H850 COLD ADVECTION
THAT MANIFESTS ITSELF AS NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TODAY AT
WILLISTON. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTION. WILL ADD A
PERIOD OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTHWEST TODAY.

THE NEXT FEATURE TO IMPACT THE STATE WILL INVOLVE SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
US THAT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND PULLED INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH SOME MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE ATMOSPHERE
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKING THROUGH A MEAN WESTERN-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY BRINGS BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD SATURDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. THIS
FRONT DOES HELP PUSH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST
WHICH ESTABLISHES A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS NEAR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT WILL
BE TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 261121
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
621 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST IS
PRODUCING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. BOWMAN RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES
BUT DOUBTFUL IF MUCH IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND. ALREADY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA SO ADJUSTED POPS JUST A BIT
TO COVER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO
THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MODELS INITIALIZED WITH A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 00Z TODAY. HIGH
RES AND GLOBAL MODELS BOTH HINT AT SOME WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BY 12Z FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR FEATURE/H850 COLD ADVECTION
THAT MANIFESTS ITSELF AS NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TODAY AT
WILLISTON. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTION. WILL ADD A
PERIOD OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTHWEST TODAY.

THE NEXT FEATURE TO IMPACT THE STATE WILL INVOLVE SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
US THAT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND PULLED INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH SOME MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE ATMOSPHERE
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKING THROUGH A MEAN WESTERN-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY BRINGS BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD SATURDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. THIS
FRONT DOES HELP PUSH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST
WHICH ESTABLISHES A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS NEAR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT WILL
BE TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 261121
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
621 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST IS
PRODUCING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. BOWMAN RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES
BUT DOUBTFUL IF MUCH IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND. ALREADY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA SO ADJUSTED POPS JUST A BIT
TO COVER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO
THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MODELS INITIALIZED WITH A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 00Z TODAY. HIGH
RES AND GLOBAL MODELS BOTH HINT AT SOME WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BY 12Z FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR FEATURE/H850 COLD ADVECTION
THAT MANIFESTS ITSELF AS NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TODAY AT
WILLISTON. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTION. WILL ADD A
PERIOD OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTHWEST TODAY.

THE NEXT FEATURE TO IMPACT THE STATE WILL INVOLVE SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
US THAT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND PULLED INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH SOME MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE ATMOSPHERE
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKING THROUGH A MEAN WESTERN-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY BRINGS BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD SATURDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. THIS
FRONT DOES HELP PUSH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST
WHICH ESTABLISHES A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS NEAR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT WILL
BE TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 260810
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
310 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MODELS INITIALIZED WITH A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 00Z TODAY. HIGH
RES AND GLOBAL MODELS BOTH HINT AT SOME WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BY 12Z FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR FEATURE/H850 COLD ADVECTION
THAT MANIFESTS ITSELF AS NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TODAY AT
WILLISTON. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTION. WILL ADD A
PERIOD OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTHWEST TODAY.

THE NEXT FEATURE TO IMPACT THE STATE WILL INVOLVE SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
US THAT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND PULLED INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH SOME MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE ATMOSPHERE
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKING THROUGH A MEAN WESTERN-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY BRINGS BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD SATURDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. THIS
FRONT DOES HELP PUSH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST
WHICH ESTABLISHES A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS NEAR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT WILL
BE TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 260810
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
310 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MODELS INITIALIZED WITH A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 00Z TODAY. HIGH
RES AND GLOBAL MODELS BOTH HINT AT SOME WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BY 12Z FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR FEATURE/H850 COLD ADVECTION
THAT MANIFESTS ITSELF AS NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TODAY AT
WILLISTON. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTION. WILL ADD A
PERIOD OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTHWEST TODAY.

THE NEXT FEATURE TO IMPACT THE STATE WILL INVOLVE SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
US THAT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND PULLED INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH SOME MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE ATMOSPHERE
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKING THROUGH A MEAN WESTERN-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY BRINGS BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD SATURDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. THIS
FRONT DOES HELP PUSH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST
WHICH ESTABLISHES A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS NEAR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT WILL
BE TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 260810
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
310 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MODELS INITIALIZED WITH A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 00Z TODAY. HIGH
RES AND GLOBAL MODELS BOTH HINT AT SOME WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BY 12Z FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR FEATURE/H850 COLD ADVECTION
THAT MANIFESTS ITSELF AS NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TODAY AT
WILLISTON. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTION. WILL ADD A
PERIOD OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTHWEST TODAY.

THE NEXT FEATURE TO IMPACT THE STATE WILL INVOLVE SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
US THAT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND PULLED INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH SOME MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE ATMOSPHERE
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKING THROUGH A MEAN WESTERN-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY BRINGS BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD SATURDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. THIS
FRONT DOES HELP PUSH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST
WHICH ESTABLISHES A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS NEAR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT WILL
BE TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 260810
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
310 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MODELS INITIALIZED WITH A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 00Z TODAY. HIGH
RES AND GLOBAL MODELS BOTH HINT AT SOME WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BY 12Z FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR FEATURE/H850 COLD ADVECTION
THAT MANIFESTS ITSELF AS NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TODAY AT
WILLISTON. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTION. WILL ADD A
PERIOD OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTHWEST TODAY.

THE NEXT FEATURE TO IMPACT THE STATE WILL INVOLVE SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
US THAT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND PULLED INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH SOME MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN THE ATMOSPHERE
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKING THROUGH A MEAN WESTERN-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY BRINGS BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD SATURDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. THIS
FRONT DOES HELP PUSH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST
WHICH ESTABLISHES A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS NEAR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT WILL
BE TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 260526
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SURFACE AND ELEVATED SMOKE ACROSS MONTANA REACHING BILLINGS AND
GLASGOW AND REDUCING VISIBILITIES ON THE SURFACE OBS. SOME HIGHER
LEVEL SMOKE MOVED THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT DID NOT REACH THE SURFACE. H850 WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY SO LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTIONS SHOULD NOT SUPPORT
SMOKE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVELS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST WITH SOME HAZY SUNSHINE TODAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING
SMOKE TO WEATHER GRIDS AS THIS TIME UNTIL A BETTER WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS CYCLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE ONLY CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE
THE FORECAST CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO TOMORROW.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ENABLE SMOKE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES TO MOVE ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SMOKE WILL REACH THE SURFACE SO OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR NOW DUE TO MINIMAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DESPITE AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NOW THROUGH
TONIGHT...MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. WAA CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST
TO LOW/MID 80S OVER MY CENTRAL AND EAST. CONTINUED DRY WITH SFC
BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY . THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE 12 UTC SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH SUCH A SCATTERED NATURE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
KEPT ONLY A CHANCE IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND MANITOBA WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MONTANA. VFR THROUGH
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 260526
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SURFACE AND ELEVATED SMOKE ACROSS MONTANA REACHING BILLINGS AND
GLASGOW AND REDUCING VISIBILITIES ON THE SURFACE OBS. SOME HIGHER
LEVEL SMOKE MOVED THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT DID NOT REACH THE SURFACE. H850 WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY SO LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTIONS SHOULD NOT SUPPORT
SMOKE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVELS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST WITH SOME HAZY SUNSHINE TODAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING
SMOKE TO WEATHER GRIDS AS THIS TIME UNTIL A BETTER WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS CYCLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE ONLY CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE
THE FORECAST CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO TOMORROW.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ENABLE SMOKE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES TO MOVE ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SMOKE WILL REACH THE SURFACE SO OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR NOW DUE TO MINIMAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DESPITE AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NOW THROUGH
TONIGHT...MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. WAA CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST
TO LOW/MID 80S OVER MY CENTRAL AND EAST. CONTINUED DRY WITH SFC
BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY . THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE 12 UTC SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH SUCH A SCATTERED NATURE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
KEPT ONLY A CHANCE IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND MANITOBA WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MONTANA. VFR THROUGH
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 260311
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1011 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS CYCLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE ONLY CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE
THE FORECAST CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO TOMORROW.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ENABLE SMOKE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES TO MOVE ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SMOKE WILL REACH THE SURFACE SO OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR NOW DUE TO MINIMAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DESPITE AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NOW THROUGH
TONIGHT...MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. WAA CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST
TO LOW/MID 80S OVER MY CENTRAL AND EAST. CONTINUED DRY WITH SFC
BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY . THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE 12 UTC SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH SUCH A SCATTERED NATURE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
KEPT ONLY A CHANCE IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JPM




000
FXUS63 KBIS 260311
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1011 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS CYCLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE ONLY CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE
THE FORECAST CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO TOMORROW.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ENABLE SMOKE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES TO MOVE ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SMOKE WILL REACH THE SURFACE SO OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR NOW DUE TO MINIMAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DESPITE AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NOW THROUGH
TONIGHT...MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. WAA CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST
TO LOW/MID 80S OVER MY CENTRAL AND EAST. CONTINUED DRY WITH SFC
BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY . THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE 12 UTC SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH SUCH A SCATTERED NATURE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
KEPT ONLY A CHANCE IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JPM




000
FXUS63 KBIS 260311
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1011 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS CYCLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE ONLY CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE
THE FORECAST CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO TOMORROW.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ENABLE SMOKE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES TO MOVE ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SMOKE WILL REACH THE SURFACE SO OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR NOW DUE TO MINIMAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DESPITE AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NOW THROUGH
TONIGHT...MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. WAA CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST
TO LOW/MID 80S OVER MY CENTRAL AND EAST. CONTINUED DRY WITH SFC
BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY . THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE 12 UTC SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH SUCH A SCATTERED NATURE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
KEPT ONLY A CHANCE IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JPM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 260311
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1011 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS CYCLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE ONLY CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE
THE FORECAST CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO TOMORROW.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ENABLE SMOKE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES TO MOVE ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SMOKE WILL REACH THE SURFACE SO OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR NOW DUE TO MINIMAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DESPITE AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NOW THROUGH
TONIGHT...MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. WAA CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST
TO LOW/MID 80S OVER MY CENTRAL AND EAST. CONTINUED DRY WITH SFC
BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY . THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE 12 UTC SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH SUCH A SCATTERED NATURE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
KEPT ONLY A CHANCE IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JPM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 260011
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
711 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE ONLY CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE
THE FORECAST CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO TOMORROW.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ENABLE SMOKE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES TO MOVE ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SMOKE WILL REACH THE SURFACE SO OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR NOW DUE TO MINIMAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DESPITE AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NOW THROUGH
TONIGHT...MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. WAA CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST
TO LOW/MID 80S OVER MY CENTRAL AND EAST. CONTINUED DRY WITH SFC
BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY . THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE 12 UTC SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH SUCH A SCATTERED NATURE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
KEPT ONLY A CHANCE IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOGANSCHRADER/JPM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...LOGANSCHRADER/JPM




000
FXUS63 KBIS 260011
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
711 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE ONLY CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE
THE FORECAST CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO TOMORROW.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ENABLE SMOKE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES TO MOVE ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SMOKE WILL REACH THE SURFACE SO OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR NOW DUE TO MINIMAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DESPITE AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NOW THROUGH
TONIGHT...MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. WAA CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST
TO LOW/MID 80S OVER MY CENTRAL AND EAST. CONTINUED DRY WITH SFC
BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY . THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE 12 UTC SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH SUCH A SCATTERED NATURE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
KEPT ONLY A CHANCE IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOGANSCHRADER/JPM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...LOGANSCHRADER/JPM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 260011
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
711 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE ONLY CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE
THE FORECAST CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO TOMORROW.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ENABLE SMOKE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES TO MOVE ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SMOKE WILL REACH THE SURFACE SO OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR NOW DUE TO MINIMAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DESPITE AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NOW THROUGH
TONIGHT...MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. WAA CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST
TO LOW/MID 80S OVER MY CENTRAL AND EAST. CONTINUED DRY WITH SFC
BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY . THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE 12 UTC SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH SUCH A SCATTERED NATURE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
KEPT ONLY A CHANCE IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOGANSCHRADER/JPM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...LOGANSCHRADER/JPM




000
FXUS63 KBIS 260011
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
711 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE ONLY CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE
THE FORECAST CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO TOMORROW.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ENABLE SMOKE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES TO MOVE ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SMOKE WILL REACH THE SURFACE SO OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR NOW DUE TO MINIMAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DESPITE AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NOW THROUGH
TONIGHT...MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. WAA CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST
TO LOW/MID 80S OVER MY CENTRAL AND EAST. CONTINUED DRY WITH SFC
BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY . THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE 12 UTC SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH SUCH A SCATTERED NATURE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
KEPT ONLY A CHANCE IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOGANSCHRADER/JPM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...LOGANSCHRADER/JPM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 260008
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
708 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE ONLY CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE
THE FORECAST CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO TOMORROW.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ENABLE SMOKE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES TO MOVE ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SMOKE WILL REACH THE SURFACE SO OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR NOW DUE TO MINIMAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DESPITE AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NOW THROUGH
TONIGHT...MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. WAA CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST
TO LOW/MID 80S OVER MY CENTRAL AND EAST. CONTINUED DRY WITH SFC
BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY . THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE 12 UTC SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH SUCH A SCATTERED NATURE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
KEPT ONLY A CHANCE IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOGANSCHRADER/JPM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 260008
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
708 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE ONLY CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE
THE FORECAST CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO TOMORROW.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ENABLE SMOKE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES TO MOVE ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SMOKE WILL REACH THE SURFACE SO OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR NOW DUE TO MINIMAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DESPITE AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NOW THROUGH
TONIGHT...MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. WAA CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST
TO LOW/MID 80S OVER MY CENTRAL AND EAST. CONTINUED DRY WITH SFC
BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY . THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE 12 UTC SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH SUCH A SCATTERED NATURE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
KEPT ONLY A CHANCE IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOGANSCHRADER/JPM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 260008
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
708 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE ONLY CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE
THE FORECAST CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO TOMORROW.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ENABLE SMOKE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES TO MOVE ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SMOKE WILL REACH THE SURFACE SO OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR NOW DUE TO MINIMAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DESPITE AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NOW THROUGH
TONIGHT...MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. WAA CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST
TO LOW/MID 80S OVER MY CENTRAL AND EAST. CONTINUED DRY WITH SFC
BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY . THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE 12 UTC SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH SUCH A SCATTERED NATURE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
KEPT ONLY A CHANCE IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOGANSCHRADER/JPM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 260008
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
708 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE ONLY CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE
THE FORECAST CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO TOMORROW.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ENABLE SMOKE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES TO MOVE ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SMOKE WILL REACH THE SURFACE SO OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR NOW DUE TO MINIMAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DESPITE AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NOW THROUGH
TONIGHT...MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. WAA CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST
TO LOW/MID 80S OVER MY CENTRAL AND EAST. CONTINUED DRY WITH SFC
BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY . THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE 12 UTC SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH SUCH A SCATTERED NATURE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
KEPT ONLY A CHANCE IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOGANSCHRADER/JPM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 251917
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
217 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO TOMORROW.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ENABLE SMOKE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES TO MOVE ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SMOKE WILL REACH THE SURFACE SO OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR NOW DUE TO MINIMAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DESPITE AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NOW THROUGH
TONIGHT...MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. WAA CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST
TO LOW/MID 80S OVER MY CENTRAL AND EAST. CONTINUED DRY WITH SFC
BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY . THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE 12 UTC SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH SUCH A SCATTERED NATURE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
KEPT ONLY A CHANCE IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 251917
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
217 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO TOMORROW.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ENABLE SMOKE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES TO MOVE ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SMOKE WILL REACH THE SURFACE SO OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR NOW DUE TO MINIMAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DESPITE AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NOW THROUGH
TONIGHT...MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. WAA CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST
TO LOW/MID 80S OVER MY CENTRAL AND EAST. CONTINUED DRY WITH SFC
BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY . THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE 12 UTC SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH SUCH A SCATTERED NATURE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
KEPT ONLY A CHANCE IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 251917
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
217 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO TOMORROW.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ENABLE SMOKE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES TO MOVE ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SMOKE WILL REACH THE SURFACE SO OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR NOW DUE TO MINIMAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DESPITE AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NOW THROUGH
TONIGHT...MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. WAA CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST
TO LOW/MID 80S OVER MY CENTRAL AND EAST. CONTINUED DRY WITH SFC
BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY . THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE 12 UTC SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH SUCH A SCATTERED NATURE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
KEPT ONLY A CHANCE IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 251917
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
217 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO TOMORROW.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ENABLE SMOKE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES TO MOVE ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SMOKE WILL REACH THE SURFACE SO OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR NOW DUE TO MINIMAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DESPITE AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NOW THROUGH
TONIGHT...MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. WAA CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST
TO LOW/MID 80S OVER MY CENTRAL AND EAST. CONTINUED DRY WITH SFC
BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY . THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE 12 UTC SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH SUCH A SCATTERED NATURE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
KEPT ONLY A CHANCE IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 251821
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
121 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK...NO MAJOR UPDATES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

SMOKE FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. WITH NO IMPACTS (REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND/OR SMOKY SMELL/RESPIRATORY HAZARDS) OPTED TO
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR NOW WITH THIS UPDATE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF THIS CHANGES.

OTHERWISE DRY AND MILD TODAY WITH NO REAL DEVIATIONS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE STILL DEPICTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...HOWEVER LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE
SO KEPT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OUT.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HARD TO SEE ANYTHING ON FOG LOOP AND NO REAL INDICATION OF FOG ON
WEATHER CAMERAS...BUT JMS HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN 1 AND 3
MILES THE PAST HOUR OR SO AND IS CURRENTLY DOWN TO 1 MILE. ABR
ALSO REPORTING SOME FOG AS WELL. WILL ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
FROM AROUND JAMESTOWN DOWN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM.

A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL...AND 80S WEST WITH RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHILE SOME MEMBERS OF THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES GENERATE LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER RIDGE...HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING POPS
FOR NOW GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

A MEAN WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
AMONGST A CONSENSUS OF THE 00 UTC SUITES. THUS...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE FAVORED FOR
THE PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 251821
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
121 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK...NO MAJOR UPDATES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

SMOKE FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. WITH NO IMPACTS (REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND/OR SMOKY SMELL/RESPIRATORY HAZARDS) OPTED TO
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR NOW WITH THIS UPDATE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF THIS CHANGES.

OTHERWISE DRY AND MILD TODAY WITH NO REAL DEVIATIONS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE STILL DEPICTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...HOWEVER LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE
SO KEPT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OUT.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HARD TO SEE ANYTHING ON FOG LOOP AND NO REAL INDICATION OF FOG ON
WEATHER CAMERAS...BUT JMS HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN 1 AND 3
MILES THE PAST HOUR OR SO AND IS CURRENTLY DOWN TO 1 MILE. ABR
ALSO REPORTING SOME FOG AS WELL. WILL ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
FROM AROUND JAMESTOWN DOWN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM.

A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL...AND 80S WEST WITH RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHILE SOME MEMBERS OF THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES GENERATE LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER RIDGE...HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING POPS
FOR NOW GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

A MEAN WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
AMONGST A CONSENSUS OF THE 00 UTC SUITES. THUS...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE FAVORED FOR
THE PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 18Z PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 251511
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1011 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1011 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

SMOKE FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. WITH NO IMPACTS (REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND/OR SMOKY SMELL/RESPIRATORY HAZARDS) OPTED TO
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR NOW WITH THIS UPDATE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF THIS CHANGES.

OTHERWISE DRY AND MILD TODAY WITH NO REAL DEVIATIONS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE STILL DEPICTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...HOWEVER LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE
SO KEPT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OUT.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HARD TO SEE ANYTHING ON FOG LOOP AND NO REAL INDICATION OF FOG ON
WEATHER CAMERAS...BUT JMS HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN 1 AND 3
MILES THE PAST HOUR OR SO AND IS CURRENTLY DOWN TO 1 MILE. ABR
ALSO REPORTING SOME FOG AS WELL. WILL ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
FROM AROUND JAMESTOWN DOWN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM.

A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL...AND 80S WEST WITH RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHILE SOME MEMBERS OF THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES GENERATE LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER RIDGE...HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING POPS
FOR NOW GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

A MEAN WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
AMONGST A CONSENSUS OF THE 00 UTC SUITES. THUS...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE FAVORED FOR
THE PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

WILL NEED TO MENTION A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG TO BEGIN THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD AT KJMS. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 12 UTC TAF CYCLE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 251511
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1011 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1011 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

SMOKE FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. WITH NO IMPACTS (REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND/OR SMOKY SMELL/RESPIRATORY HAZARDS) OPTED TO
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR NOW WITH THIS UPDATE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF THIS CHANGES.

OTHERWISE DRY AND MILD TODAY WITH NO REAL DEVIATIONS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE STILL DEPICTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...HOWEVER LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE
SO KEPT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OUT.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HARD TO SEE ANYTHING ON FOG LOOP AND NO REAL INDICATION OF FOG ON
WEATHER CAMERAS...BUT JMS HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN 1 AND 3
MILES THE PAST HOUR OR SO AND IS CURRENTLY DOWN TO 1 MILE. ABR
ALSO REPORTING SOME FOG AS WELL. WILL ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
FROM AROUND JAMESTOWN DOWN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM.

A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL...AND 80S WEST WITH RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHILE SOME MEMBERS OF THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES GENERATE LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER RIDGE...HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING POPS
FOR NOW GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

A MEAN WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
AMONGST A CONSENSUS OF THE 00 UTC SUITES. THUS...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE FAVORED FOR
THE PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

WILL NEED TO MENTION A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG TO BEGIN THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD AT KJMS. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 12 UTC TAF CYCLE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 251119
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
619 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HARD TO SEE ANYTHING ON FOG LOOP AND NO REAL INDICATION OF FOG ON
WEATHER CAMERAS...BUT JMS HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN 1 AND 3
MILES THE PAST HOUR OR SO AND IS CURRENTLY DOWN TO 1 MILE. ABR
ALSO REPORTING SOME FOG AS WELL. WILL ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
FROM AROUND JAMESTOWN DOWN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM.

A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL...AND 80S WEST WITH RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHILE SOME MEMBERS OF THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES GENERATE LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER RIDGE...HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING POPS
FOR NOW GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

A MEAN WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
AMONGST A CONSENSUS OF THE 00 UTC SUITES. THUS...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE FAVORED FOR
THE PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

WILL NEED TO MENTION A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG TO BEGIN THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD AT KJMS. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 12 UTC TAF CYCLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 251119
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
619 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HARD TO SEE ANYTHING ON FOG LOOP AND NO REAL INDICATION OF FOG ON
WEATHER CAMERAS...BUT JMS HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN 1 AND 3
MILES THE PAST HOUR OR SO AND IS CURRENTLY DOWN TO 1 MILE. ABR
ALSO REPORTING SOME FOG AS WELL. WILL ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
FROM AROUND JAMESTOWN DOWN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM.

A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL...AND 80S WEST WITH RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHILE SOME MEMBERS OF THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES GENERATE LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER RIDGE...HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING POPS
FOR NOW GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

A MEAN WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
AMONGST A CONSENSUS OF THE 00 UTC SUITES. THUS...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE FAVORED FOR
THE PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

WILL NEED TO MENTION A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG TO BEGIN THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD AT KJMS. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 12 UTC TAF CYCLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 250757
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
257 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM.

A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL...AND 80S WEST WITH RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHILE SOME MEMBERS OF THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES GENERATE LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER RIDGE...HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING POPS
FOR NOW GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

A MEAN WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
AMONGST A CONSENSUS OF THE 00 UTC SUITES. THUS...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE FAVORED FOR
THE PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 06 UTC TAF CYCLE. WHILE PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...LEFT THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF
POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO THE TERMINAL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 250757
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
257 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM.

A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL...AND 80S WEST WITH RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHILE SOME MEMBERS OF THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES GENERATE LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER RIDGE...HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING POPS
FOR NOW GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

A MEAN WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
AMONGST A CONSENSUS OF THE 00 UTC SUITES. THUS...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE FAVORED FOR
THE PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 06 UTC TAF CYCLE. WHILE PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...LEFT THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF
POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO THE TERMINAL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD





000
FXUS63 KBIS 250757
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
257 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM.

A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL...AND 80S WEST WITH RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHILE SOME MEMBERS OF THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES GENERATE LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER RIDGE...HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING POPS
FOR NOW GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

A MEAN WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
AMONGST A CONSENSUS OF THE 00 UTC SUITES. THUS...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE FAVORED FOR
THE PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 06 UTC TAF CYCLE. WHILE PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...LEFT THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF
POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO THE TERMINAL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 250541
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1241 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE NIGHT AS RETURN FLOW HAS
COMMENCED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE 02-04 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS HAVE DEPICTED FOG POTENTIAL FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST LATE TONIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT...LEFT THE FOG
MENTION OUT FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

QUIET NIGHT WITH JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH FRO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. JUST UPDATED THE CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT 5 PM CDT WILL
DRIFT EAST TONIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS 40 TO 50. JUST UPDATED
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BRING A
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
MANITOBA THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. LIGHT WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 5
TO 15 MPH.

THE SURFACE HIGH AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST TONIGHT...REACHING
THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE AT H850 IN THE WEST TONIGHT...REACHING INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH SURFACE SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH
MIXING IN THE SURFACE LAYER FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH A FEW LOCALES DIPPING INTO THE MID 40S. IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS AND
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WEST...AND 5 TO 15 MPH IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S FROM
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO JAMES VALLEY...TO MID 80S IN THE FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 06 UTC TAF CYCLE. WHILE PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...LEFT THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF
POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO THE TERMINAL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 250541
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1241 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE NIGHT AS RETURN FLOW HAS
COMMENCED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE 02-04 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS HAVE DEPICTED FOG POTENTIAL FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST LATE TONIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT...LEFT THE FOG
MENTION OUT FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

QUIET NIGHT WITH JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH FRO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. JUST UPDATED THE CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT 5 PM CDT WILL
DRIFT EAST TONIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS 40 TO 50. JUST UPDATED
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BRING A
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
MANITOBA THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. LIGHT WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 5
TO 15 MPH.

THE SURFACE HIGH AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST TONIGHT...REACHING
THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE AT H850 IN THE WEST TONIGHT...REACHING INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH SURFACE SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH
MIXING IN THE SURFACE LAYER FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH A FEW LOCALES DIPPING INTO THE MID 40S. IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS AND
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WEST...AND 5 TO 15 MPH IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S FROM
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO JAMES VALLEY...TO MID 80S IN THE FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 06 UTC TAF CYCLE. WHILE PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...LEFT THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF
POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO THE TERMINAL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD





000
FXUS63 KBIS 250223
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
923 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

QUIET NIGHT WITH JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH FRO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. JUST UPDATED THE CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT 5 PM CDT WILL
DRIFT EAST TONIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS 40 TO 50. JUST UPDATED
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BRING A
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
MANITOBA THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. LIGHT WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 5
TO 15 MPH.

THE SURFACE HIGH AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST TONIGHT...REACHING
THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE AT H850 IN THE WEST TONIGHT...REACHING INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH SURFACE SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH
MIXING IN THE SURFACE LAYER FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH A FEW LOCALES DIPPING INTO THE MID 40S. IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS AND
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WEST...AND 5 TO 15 MPH IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S FROM
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO JAMES VALLEY...TO MID 80S IN THE FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 250223
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
923 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

QUIET NIGHT WITH JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH FRO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. JUST UPDATED THE CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT 5 PM CDT WILL
DRIFT EAST TONIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS 40 TO 50. JUST UPDATED
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BRING A
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
MANITOBA THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. LIGHT WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 5
TO 15 MPH.

THE SURFACE HIGH AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST TONIGHT...REACHING
THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE AT H850 IN THE WEST TONIGHT...REACHING INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH SURFACE SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH
MIXING IN THE SURFACE LAYER FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH A FEW LOCALES DIPPING INTO THE MID 40S. IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS AND
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WEST...AND 5 TO 15 MPH IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S FROM
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO JAMES VALLEY...TO MID 80S IN THE FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 250223
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
923 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

QUIET NIGHT WITH JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH FRO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. JUST UPDATED THE CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT 5 PM CDT WILL
DRIFT EAST TONIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS 40 TO 50. JUST UPDATED
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BRING A
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
MANITOBA THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. LIGHT WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 5
TO 15 MPH.

THE SURFACE HIGH AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST TONIGHT...REACHING
THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE AT H850 IN THE WEST TONIGHT...REACHING INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH SURFACE SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH
MIXING IN THE SURFACE LAYER FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH A FEW LOCALES DIPPING INTO THE MID 40S. IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS AND
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WEST...AND 5 TO 15 MPH IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S FROM
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO JAMES VALLEY...TO MID 80S IN THE FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 250223
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
923 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

QUIET NIGHT WITH JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH FRO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. JUST UPDATED THE CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT 5 PM CDT WILL
DRIFT EAST TONIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS 40 TO 50. JUST UPDATED
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BRING A
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
MANITOBA THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. LIGHT WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 5
TO 15 MPH.

THE SURFACE HIGH AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST TONIGHT...REACHING
THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE AT H850 IN THE WEST TONIGHT...REACHING INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH SURFACE SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH
MIXING IN THE SURFACE LAYER FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH A FEW LOCALES DIPPING INTO THE MID 40S. IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS AND
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WEST...AND 5 TO 15 MPH IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S FROM
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO JAMES VALLEY...TO MID 80S IN THE FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE ECMWF
INDICATES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA




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