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000
FXUS63 KBIS 311751
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. LOWER STRATUS IS
QUICKLY ERODING OVER THE FAR WEST. TEMPERATURES LOOK IN LINE.
WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST AT 18 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS REMAINS OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR WITH THIN CIRRUS SPREADING FROM CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED SKY COVER IN THE WEST TO KEEP
CLOUDS IN THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. LATEST 13 UTC RAP SHOWS LOW
LEVEL RH DISSIPATING QUICKLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY MIDDAY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MORE MARGINAL CRITERIA FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO MIDDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

STRATUS DECK ORIENTED ALONG A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO
ERODE THIS MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS
GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO
THE NEAR-TERM HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
SASKATCHEWAN...MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND
EAST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LOW STRATUS DECK
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHRINK WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ERODES THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE CLOUDS. SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MATERIALIZES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA. AS IS COMMON WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW...STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT (40KTS +) LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONGEST GRADIENT FORCING IS
DEPICTED. THUS CURRENT WIND ADVISORY (SOUTHWEST) LOOKS GOOD BASED
ON THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT ANALYSIS. BREEZY BUT SUB
ADVISORY WINDS ELSEWHERE.

DESPITE GOOD RETURN FLOW TODAY...SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK
COMBINED WITH A VERY COLD START THIS MORNING WILL ONLY SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S CENTRAL AND EAST. A BIT WARMER WEST
(40S) THANKS TO A WARMER MORNING START AND BETTER WAA.

PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SUCH AS THEY ARE THIS
MORNING. THE BAD NEWS IS LOWS ARE STILL FORECAST AT 25 TO AROUND
30...RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH
MONDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK CLIPPER CLIPS THE STATE. THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE EITHER
RAIN OR SNOW...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LOWER STRATUS HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED A KISN AND KDIK. THEREFORE
WILL BE ABLE TO START OUT THE 18 UTC FORECAST WITH VFR CEILINGS
AT ALL AERODROMES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF RETURNING STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WEST/CENTRAL BUT MODELS INDICATE LESS OF AN
INVERSION TONIGHT WITH NOT AS MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-
043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 311452
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
952 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS REMAINS OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR WITH THIN CIRRUS SPREADING FROM CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED SKY COVER IN THE WEST TO KEEP
CLOUDS IN THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. LATEST 13 UTC RAP SHOWS LOW
LEVEL RH DISSIPATING QUICKLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY MIDDAY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. MORE MARGINAL CRITERIA FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO MIDDAY.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

STRATUS DECK ORIENTED ALONG A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO
ERODE THIS MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS
GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO
THE NEAR-TERM HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
SASKATCHEWAN...MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND
EAST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LOW STRATUS DECK
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHRINK WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ERODES THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE CLOUDS. SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MATERIALIZES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA. AS IS COMMON WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW...STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT (40KTS +) LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONGEST GRADIENT FORCING IS
DEPICTED. THUS CURRENT WIND ADVISORY (SOUTHWEST) LOOKS GOOD BASED
ON THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT ANALYSIS. BREEZY BUT SUB
ADVISORY WINDS ELSEWHERE.

DESPITE GOOD RETURN FLOW TODAY...SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK
COMBINED WITH A VERY COLD START THIS MORNING WILL ONLY SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S CENTRAL AND EAST. A BIT WARMER WEST
(40S) THANKS TO A WARMER MORNING START AND BETTER WAA.

PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SUCH AS THEY ARE THIS
MORNING. THE BAD NEWS IS LOWS ARE STILL FORECAST AT 25 TO AROUND
30...RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH
MONDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK CLIPPER CLIPS THE STATE. THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE EITHER
RAIN OR SNOW...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MVFR-IFR CEILINGS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (KISN-KDIK) ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AROUND 18 UTC. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AT
AERODROMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL WORK FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 311141
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

STRATUS DECK ORIENTED ALONG A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO
ERODE THIS MORNING AS VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS
GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO
THE NEAR-TERM HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
SASKATCHEWAN...MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND
EAST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LOW STRATUS DECK
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHRINK WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ERODES THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE CLOUDS. SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MATERIALIZES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA. AS IS COMMON WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW...STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT (40KTS +) LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONGEST GRADIENT FORCING IS
DEPICTED. THUS CURRENT WIND ADVISORY (SOUTHWEST) LOOKS GOOD BASED
ON THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT ANALYSIS. BREEZY BUT SUB
ADVISORY WINDS ELSEWHERE.

DESPITE GOOD RETURN FLOW TODAY...SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK
COMBINED WITH A VERY COLD START THIS MORNING WILL ONLY SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S CENTRAL AND EAST. A BIT WARMER WEST
(40S) THANKS TO A WARMER MORNING START AND BETTER WAA.

PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SUCH AS THEY ARE THIS
MORNING. THE BAD NEWS IS LOWS ARE STILL FORECAST AT 25 TO AROUND
30...RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH
MONDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK CLIPPER CLIPS THE STATE. THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE EITHER
RAIN OR SNOW...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
ERODE THE BAND OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA NOW
THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY MORNING...WITH BOTH KDIK AND KISN TRENDING
SCATTERED BY 15Z. OTHERWISE VFR ELSEWHERE AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AT
18-24KTS. PEAK GUSTS AT KDIK TODAY WILL APPROACH 35-40KTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 310811
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
SASKATCHEWAN...MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND
EAST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LOW STRATUS DECK
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHRINK WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ERODES THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE CLOUDS. SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MATERIALIZES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA. AS IS COMMON WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW...STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT (40KTS +) LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONGEST GRADIENT FORCING IS
DEPICTED. THUS CURRENT WIND ADVISORY (SOUTHWEST) LOOKS GOOD BASED
ON THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT ANALYSIS. BREEZY BUT SUB
ADVISORY WINDS ELSEWHERE.

DESPITE GOOD RETURN FLOW TODAY...SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK
COMBINED WITH A VERY COLD START THIS MORNING WILL ONLY SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S CENTRAL AND EAST. A BIT WARMER WEST
(40S) THANKS TO A WARMER MORNING START AND BETTER WAA.

PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SUCH AS THEY ARE THIS
MORNING. THE BAD NEWS IS LOWS ARE STILL FORECAST AT 25 TO AROUND
30...RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH
MONDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK CLIPPER CLIPS THE STATE. THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE EITHER
RAIN OR SNOW...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
ERODE THE BAND OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA NOW
THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT BOTH KDIK AND KISN TO TREND
SCATTERED BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. OTHERWISE VFR ELSEWHERE AND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 310625
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
125 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHRINK WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ERODES THE
STRATUS DECK. LINGERING STRATUS LIKELY THROUGH 15Z...THEN
SCATTERING OUT WITH SCT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS PROPAGATES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

MAIN UPDATES EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TO ADJUST SKY GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS. REMOVED FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH BUFKIT INDICATING THE STRATUS DECK RATHER
THIN AND ZERO FORCING MECHANISMS ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW IS
THERE...JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COOL AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EAST THIS EVENING.
LOWERED MINS ABOUT 3 DEGREES NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. CLOUDS
WILL NOW OCCUPY ONLY THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF FZDZ AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTHWEST BUT SHOULD ONLY BE
PATCHY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT AGREE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -FZDZ
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO WEAK UP SLOPE FLOW SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL
SUPER SATURATION ABOVE -10C WITH DRY AIR ABOVE. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WINDS FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

VISIBLE SATELLITE THROUGH 2015 UTC SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS HAS
ERODED ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...IF NOT
JUST A BIT SLOWER WHEN COMPARED TO THE LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS ON THE
17 THROUGH 19 UTC RAP AND HRRR ITERATIONS. STRATUS EROSION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS IN THE RAP/HRRR AND OBSERVED SATELLITE TRENDS THAT THE
STRATUS MAY LINER ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THUS...WITH SUNDOWN STRATUS BUILD DOWN IS
POSSIBLE...LEADING TO FOG AND POTENTIALLY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR STRATUS FREE AREAS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS.

FOR FRIDAY...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST FROM 18-00
UTC. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ARE FORECAST AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE STATIONARY LEE FRONT
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. 0.5 KM WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS BY 00
UTC ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE RATHER SHALLOW GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED INVERSION. THUS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHWEST HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPING INTO THE STRONG WINDS
AT THE BASE OF THE INVERSION. SHOULD MIXING HEIGHTS BE GREATER
THAN FORECAST...AN EXPANSION IN TIME AND AREA OF THE ADVISORY MAY
BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN IMPACTS IN THE EXTENDED...WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
EVENING...RAIN/SNOW MONDAY.

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COMBINED WITH LARGE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN EASTERN MONTANA...WILL BRING IN GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 40 MPH. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE (12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/SREF/NAM) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE TIME AND PLACEMENT OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD BRING IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND
ENTER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS. IF THE TRACK ON
THE ECMWF HOLDS TRUE THEN VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMER THAN THE GFS...POINTING TO ALL RAIN PRECIP
RATHER THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX OF THE GFS. RIGHT NOW ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE
THE BAND OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT KISN TO TREND SCATTERED BETWEEN NOW
AND 09Z...AND FOR KDIK 08Z-10Z. OTHERWISE VFR ELSEWHERE AND FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 310251
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COOL AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EAST THIS EVENING.
LOWERED MINS ABOUT 3 DEGREES NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. CLOUDS
WILL NOW OCCUPY ONLY THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF FZDZ AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTHWEST BUT SHOULD ONLY BE
PATCHY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT AGREE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -FZDZ
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO WEAK UP SLOPE FLOW SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL
SUPER SATURATION ABOVE -10C WITH DRY AIR ABOVE. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WINDS FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

VISIBLE SATELLITE THROUGH 2015 UTC SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS HAS
ERODED ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...IF NOT
JUST A BIT SLOWER WHEN COMPARED TO THE LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS ON THE
17 THROUGH 19 UTC RAP AND HRRR ITERATIONS. STRATUS EROSION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS IN THE RAP/HRRR AND OBSERVED SATELLITE TRENDS THAT THE
STRATUS MAY LINER ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THUS...WITH SUNDOWN STRATUS BUILD DOWN IS
POSSIBLE...LEADING TO FOG AND POTENTIALLY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR STRATUS FREE AREAS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS.

FOR FRIDAY...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST FROM 18-00
UTC. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ARE FORECAST AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE STATIONARY LEE FRONT
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. 0.5 KM WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS BY 00
UTC ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE RATHER SHALLOW GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED INVERSION. THUS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHWEST HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPING INTO THE STRONG WINDS
AT THE BASE OF THE INVERSION. SHOULD MIXING HEIGHTS BE GREATER
THAN FORECAST...AN EXPANSION IN TIME AND AREA OF THE ADVISORY MAY
BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN IMPACTS IN THE EXTENDED...WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
EVENING...RAIN/SNOW MONDAY.

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COMBINED WITH LARGE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN EASTERN MONTANA...WILL BRING IN GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 40 MPH. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE (12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/SREF/NAM) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE TIME AND PLACEMENT OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD BRING IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND
ENTER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS. IF THE TRACK ON
THE ECMWF HOLDS TRUE THEN VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMER THAN THE GFS...POINTING TO ALL RAIN PRECIP
RATHER THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX OF THE GFS. RIGHT NOW ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE BAND OF STRATUS CLOUDS
WESTWARD TO OCCUPY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE UP SLOPE FLOW SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ISSUES TONIGHT. AT THIS
TIME STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAF FOR KDIK BUT IFR WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST IF THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040-
041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 302341
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT AGREE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -FZDZ
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO WEAK UP SLOPE FLOW SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL
SUPER SATURATION ABOVE -10C WITH DRY AIR ABOVE. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WINDS FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

VISIBLE SATELLITE THROUGH 2015 UTC SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS HAS
ERODED ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...IF NOT
JUST A BIT SLOWER WHEN COMPARED TO THE LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS ON THE
17 THROUGH 19 UTC RAP AND HRRR ITERATIONS. STRATUS EROSION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS IN THE RAP/HRRR AND OBSERVED SATELLITE TRENDS THAT THE
STRATUS MAY LINER ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THUS...WITH SUNDOWN STRATUS BUILD DOWN IS
POSSIBLE...LEADING TO FOG AND POTENTIALLY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR STRATUS FREE AREAS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS.

FOR FRIDAY...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST FROM 18-00
UTC. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ARE FORECAST AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE STATIONARY LEE FRONT
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. 0.5 KM WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS BY 00
UTC ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE RATHER SHALLOW GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED INVERSION. THUS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHWEST HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPING INTO THE STRONG WINDS
AT THE BASE OF THE INVERSION. SHOULD MIXING HEIGHTS BE GREATER
THAN FORECAST...AN EXPANSION IN TIME AND AREA OF THE ADVISORY MAY
BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN IMPACTS IN THE EXTENDED...WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
EVENING...RAIN/SNOW MONDAY.

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COMBINED WITH LARGE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN EASTERN MONTANA...WILL BRING IN GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 40 MPH. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE (12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/SREF/NAM) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE TIME AND PLACEMENT OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD BRING IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND
ENTER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS. IF THE TRACK ON
THE ECMWF HOLDS TRUE THEN VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMER THAN THE GFS...POINTING TO ALL RAIN PRECIP
RATHER THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX OF THE GFS. RIGHT NOW ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ERODING THE STRATUS
QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS KBIS WILL CLEAR BY 02Z AND KISN BY
03Z. KDIK WILL BE IMPACTED BY LOW LEVEL UP SLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL
KEEP IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -FZDZ AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME
HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL MONITOR. CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR AT KDIK AFTER 15Z. THEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO NEAR 40 KTS KDIK-KISN AFTER 18Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040-
041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 302104
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND
STRONG WINDS FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

VISIBLE SATELLITE THROUGH 2015 UTC SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS HAS
ERODED ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO
THE UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...IF NOT
JUST A BIT SLOWER WHEN COMPARED TO THE LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS ON THE
17 THROUGH 19 UTC RAP AND HRRR ITERATIONS. STRATUS EROSION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS IN THE RAP/HRRR AND OBSERVED SATELLITE TRENDS THAT THE
STRATUS MAY LINER ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THUS...WITH SUNDOWN STRATUS BUILD DOWN IS
POSSIBLE...LEADING TO FOG AND POTENTIALLY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -10C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR STRATUS FREE AREAS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS.

FOR FRIDAY...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST FROM 18-00
UTC. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ARE FORECAST AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE STATIONARY LEE FRONT
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. 0.5 KM WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS BY 00
UTC ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE RATHER SHALLOW GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED INVERSION. THUS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHWEST HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF TAPING INTO THE STRONG WINDS
AT THE BASE OF THE INVERSION. SHOULD MIXING HEIGHTS BE GREATER
THAN FORECAST...AN EXPANSION IN TIME AND AREA OF THE ADVISORY MAY
BE POSSIBLE.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN IMPACTS IN THE EXTENDED...WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
EVENING...RAIN/SNOW MONDAY.

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR
ADVECTION...COMBINED WITH LARGE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN EASTERN MONTANA...WILL BRING IN GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 40 MPH. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE (12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/SREF/NAM) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE TIME AND PLACEMENT OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD BRING IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SWING OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND
ENTER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS. IF THE TRACK ON
THE ECMWF HOLDS TRUE THEN VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMER THAN THE GFS...POINTING TO ALL RAIN PRECIP
RATHER THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX OF THE GFS. RIGHT NOW ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE ACROSS ALL BUT FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THIS INCLUDES KDIK AND POSSIBLY
KISN...WHERE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...WITH SOME FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH
STRATUS BUILD DOWN. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST AREA WIDE
FRIDAY...THE STRONGEST BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040-
041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD










000
FXUS63 KBIS 301814
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
114 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON TRACK AS STRATUS IS BEGINNING
TO ERODE ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS THE LATEST
12-13 UTC RAP ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO ERODE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN
THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

REMOVED EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WORDING FROM THE
ZONES AS SURFACE OBS HAVE BEEN DRY ALL MORNING UNDER THE STRATUS
DECK CREEPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

EFFECTS OF A LARGE CLOUD DECK MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TIMING OF CLOUDS DISSIPATING TODAY WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR JAMESTOWN WESTWARD
ALONG I-94. A LARGE CLOUD DECK IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WELL BEHIND
THE FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THE COLD MOIST AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND THE
LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE STATE LATER THIS MORNING. SOME
OBSERVATION SITES WERE REPORTING FOG AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUD DECK...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS STRATUS DECK MOVES
OVER AND WINDS PICK UP A BIT. THE FOG IN THE JAMES VALLEY MAY LINGER
UNTIL THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AND THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...SO KEPT
A MENTION OF FOG THERE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
THE MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH TIME TODAY. EXPECTING
DISSIPATING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH.

BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGH CENTER SHOULD BE OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WEST ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CLOSER TO THE
HIGH CENTER...TO THE 20S IN THE FAR WEST WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
MIXING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW 20.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD ABATE BY SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
ENTERS EASTERN MONTANA AND WEAKENS GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE COULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
MORNING...WITH THE PRECIP TYPE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
DEVELOPING NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 130+ KT
UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS BROAD UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 301409
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
909 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS THE LATEST
12-13 UTC RAP ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO ERODE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN
THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

REMOVED EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WORDING FROM THE
ZONES AS SURFACE OBS HAVE BEEN DRY ALL MORNING UNDER THE STRATUS
DECK CREEPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

EFFECTS OF A LARGE CLOUD DECK MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TIMING OF CLOUDS DISSIPATING TODAY WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR JAMESTOWN WESTWARD
ALONG I-94. A LARGE CLOUD DECK IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WELL BEHIND
THE FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THE COLD MOIST AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND THE
LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE STATE LATER THIS MORNING. SOME
OBSERVATION SITES WERE REPORTING FOG AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUD DECK...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS STRATUS DECK MOVES
OVER AND WINDS PICK UP A BIT. THE FOG IN THE JAMES VALLEY MAY LINGER
UNTIL THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AND THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...SO KEPT
A MENTION OF FOG THERE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
THE MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH TIME TODAY. EXPECTING
DISSIPATING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH.

BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGH CENTER SHOULD BE OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WEST ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CLOSER TO THE
HIGH CENTER...TO THE 20S IN THE FAR WEST WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
MIXING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW 20.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD ABATE BY SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
ENTERS EASTERN MONTANA AND WEAKENS GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE COULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
MORNING...WITH THE PRECIP TYPE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
DEVELOPING NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 130+ KT
UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS BROAD UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS THIS MORNING ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 301146
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
646 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

REMOVED EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WORDING FROM THE
ZONES AS SURFACE OBS HAVE BEEN DRY ALL MORNING UNDER THE STRATUS
DECK CREEPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

EFFECTS OF A LARGE CLOUD DECK MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TIMING OF CLOUDS DISSIPATING TODAY WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR JAMESTOWN WESTWARD
ALONG I-94. A LARGE CLOUD DECK IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WELL BEHIND
THE FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THE COLD MOIST AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND THE
LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE STATE LATER THIS MORNING. SOME
OBSERVATION SITES WERE REPORTING FOG AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUD DECK...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS STRATUS DECK MOVES
OVER AND WINDS PICK UP A BIT. THE FOG IN THE JAMES VALLEY MAY LINGER
UNTIL THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AND THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...SO KEPT
A MENTION OF FOG THERE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
THE MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH TIME TODAY. EXPECTING
DISSIPATING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH.

BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGH CENTER SHOULD BE OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WEST ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CLOSER TO THE
HIGH CENTER...TO THE 20S IN THE FAR WEST WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
MIXING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW 20.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD ABATE BY SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
ENTERS EASTERN MONTANA AND WEAKENS GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE COULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
MORNING...WITH THE PRECIP TYPE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
DEVELOPING NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 130+ KT
UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS BROAD UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

LARGE CLOUD DECK WITH MVFR AND EMBEDDED IFR CIGS OVER MOST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SOME
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG OCCURRING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD
DECK...THUS DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG TO LAST VERY LONG. MVFR AND IFR
CIGS SHOULD BECOME VFR GRADUALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300833
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

EFFECTS OF A LARGE CLOUD DECK MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TIMING OF CLOUDS DISSIPATING TODAY WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR JAMESTOWN WESTWARD
ALONG I-94. A LARGE CLOUD DECK IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WELL BEHIND
THE FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THE COLD MOIST AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND THE
LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE STATE LATER THIS MORNING. SOME
OBSERVATION SITES WERE REPORTING FOG AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUD DECK...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS STRATUS DECK MOVES
OVER AND WINDS PICK UP A BIT. THE FOG IN THE JAMES VALLEY MAY LINGER
UNTIL THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AND THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...SO KEPT
A MENTION OF FOG THERE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
THE MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS DISSIPATING WITH TIME TODAY. EXPECTING
DISSIPATING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH.

BY FRIDAY MORNING THE HIGH CENTER SHOULD BE OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WEST ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CLOSER TO THE
HIGH CENTER...TO THE 20S IN THE FAR WEST WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
MIXING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW 20.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
MONTANA. WINDS SHOULD ABATE BY SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
ENTERS EASTERN MONTANA AND WEAKENS GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN IN MONTANA SUNDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE COULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
MORNING...WITH THE PRECIP TYPE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CRESTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
DEVELOPING NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 130+ KT
UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS BROAD UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

RAIN SHOWERS HAD MOVED EAST OF THE KJMS AREA. WILL ADD TEMPO GROUP
FOR FOG TO KBIS AND KJMS TAF. GETTING GROUND FOG SOUTH CENTRAL AS
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED AND SURFACE MOISTURE LIGHT WINDS COMBINE FOR
FOG. EXPECTING FOG TO DISSIPATE AS NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVE AFTER
AROUND 09Z/10Z. SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR KDVL/KJMS WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR KMOT...AND WAS ALREADY SOUTH OF
KISN. WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST/NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT MVFR
AND IFR CIGS TO MOVE SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT...LAGGING THE FRONT BY
AN HOUR OR SO.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 300547
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1247 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPDATED FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. CURRENTLY THE SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR DEVILS LAKE/JAMESTOWN WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR MINOT AND WILLISTON TO
THE MONTANA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. WINDS HAD TURNED NORTHWEST/NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. LARGE CLOUD DECK MOVING SOUTH AN HOUR OR TWO
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND EXPECT FRONT AND CLOUDS TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND WIND TRENDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...BUT MADE LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. KEPT MENTION OF POSSIBLE DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. 00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWED NO ICE CRYSTALS ABOVE STRATUS LAYER. LOWS IN THE NORTH
REACHING THE UPPER 20S...SO PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE LOW IN WHETHER PRECIP WILL MATERIALIZE...BUT
LATEST HIGH RES NMM AND ARW MODELS SHOWING SOME SPOTTY PRECIP
POSSIBLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATED FOR PATCHY FOG SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION LESS THAN 2. FOG SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATED WHEN
NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SHOWERS ARE ENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS EVENING. TRENDED THE
POPS TO FIT THE LATEST RADAR. CLEARING SKIES ARE OVER A LARGE PART
OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE REPLACED WITH A STRATUS
AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM COOL AIR ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN. SO FAR SEE NO DRIZZLE/FZDZ YET IN SASK BUT WILL
MONITOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WERE TRACKING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH CLEARING ALREADY SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THE RAIN WILL
END ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. COOL AIR ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. COOL AIR STRATUS IS PRETTY
WIDESPREAD IN SASKATCHEWAN AND IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO REGINA. THIS
WILL MOVE INGOT WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRY AIR ABOVE COULD CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FOR ANY EVIDENCE FOR
THIS. SO FAR CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF US
HIGHWAY 2 AS OF 1945 UTC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE
JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR
ITERATIONS...NAMELY THEIR 17-18 UTC RUNS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREAFTER...LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SATURATION AT TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -10 C...PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE FALL BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDY (30-50 MPH) CONDITIONS SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...WITH
20-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED WELL IN THE ENSEMBLE
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE USING THE V COMPONENT OF THE WIND. A
SOLID HIGH END WIND ADVISORY LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE STRONGER GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS COULD
REACH 40 MPH POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A HIGH WIND WARNING. FOR NOW WILL
BLEND THE WEAKER NAM AND THE STRONGER GFS WHICH USUALLY IS A GOOD
COMBINATION IN THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION SITUATIONS. WILL LET
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS LOOK AT THE LATEST DATA FOR CHANGES. THE GRADIENT
SHIFTS EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED FURTHER EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
CHILLY HIGHS ON FRIDAY...RANGING BETWEEN 35 TO 45. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45 TO 55. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY WITH
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...MORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. COLDER AIR MONDAY BEHIND
THE SYSTEM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AS A QUICK MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WITH POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
CLIPPER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

RAIN SHOWERS HAD MOVED EAST OF THE KJMS AREA. WILL ADD TEMPO GROUP
FOR FOG TO KBIS AND KJMS TAF. GETTING GROUND FOG SOUTH CENTRAL AS
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED AND SURFACE MOISTURE LIGHT WINDS COMBINE FOR
FOG. EXPECTING FOG TO DISSIPATE AS NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVE AFTER
AROUND 09Z/10Z. SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR KDVL/KJMS WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR KMOT...AND WAS ALREADY SOUTH OF
KISN. WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST/NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT MVFR
AND IFR CIGS TO MOVE SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT...LAGGING THE FRONT BY
AN HOUR OR SO.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 300310
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1010 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATED FOR PATCHY FOG SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION LESS THAN 2. FOG SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATED WHEN
NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SHOWERS ARE ENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS EVENING. TRENDED THE
POPS TO FIT THE LATEST RADAR. CLEARING SKIES ARE OVER A LARGE PART
OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE REPLACED WITH A STRATUS
AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM COOL AIR ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN. SO FAR SEE NO DRIZZLE/FZDZ YET IN SASK BUT WILL
MONITOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WERE TRACKING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH CLEARING ALREADY SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THE RAIN WILL
END ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. COOL AIR ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. COOL AIR STRATUS IS PRETTY
WIDESPREAD IN SASKATCHEWAN AND IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO REGINA. THIS
WILL MOVE INGOT WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRY AIR ABOVE COULD CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FOR ANY EVIDENCE FOR
THIS. SO FAR CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF US
HIGHWAY 2 AS OF 1945 UTC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE
JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR
ITERATIONS...NAMELY THEIR 17-18 UTC RUNS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREAFTER...LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SATURATION AT TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -10 C...PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE FALL BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDY (30-50 MPH) CONDITIONS SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...WITH
20-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED WELL IN THE ENSEMBLE
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE USING THE V COMPONENT OF THE WIND. A
SOLID HIGH END WIND ADVISORY LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE STRONGER GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS COULD
REACH 40 MPH POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A HIGH WIND WARNING. FOR NOW WILL
BLEND THE WEAKER NAM AND THE STRONGER GFS WHICH USUALLY IS A GOOD
COMBINATION IN THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION SITUATIONS. WILL LET
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS LOOK AT THE LATEST DATA FOR CHANGES. THE GRADIENT
SHIFTS EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED FURTHER EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
CHILLY HIGHS ON FRIDAY...RANGING BETWEEN 35 TO 45. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45 TO 55. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY WITH
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...MORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. COLDER AIR MONDAY BEHIND
THE SYSTEM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AS A QUICK MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WITH POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
CLIPPER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

WILL ADD FOG TO KBIS TAF. GETTING GROUND FOG SOUTH CENTRAL AS
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED AND SURFACE MOISTURE LIGHT WINDS COMBINE
FOR FOG, EXPECTING FOG TO DISSIPATE AS NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 300235
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
935 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SHOWERS ARE ENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS EVENING. TRENDED THE
POPS TO FIT THE LATEST RADAR. CLEARING SKIES ARE OVER A LARGE PART
OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE REPLACED WITH A STRATUS
AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM COOL AIR ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN. SO FAR SEE NO DRIZZLE/FZDZ YET IN SASK BUT WILL
MONITOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WERE TRACKING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH CLEARING ALREADY SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THE RAIN WILL
END ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. COOL AIR ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. COOL AIR STRATUS IS PRETTY
WIDESPREAD IN SASKATCHEWAN AND IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO REGINA. THIS
WILL MOVE INGOT WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRY AIR ABOVE COULD CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FOR ANY EVIDENCE FOR
THIS. SO FAR CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF US
HIGHWAY 2 AS OF 1945 UTC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE
JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR
ITERATIONS...NAMELY THEIR 17-18 UTC RUNS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREAFTER...LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SATURATION AT TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -10 C...PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE FALL BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDY (30-50 MPH) CONDITIONS SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...WITH
20-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED WELL IN THE ENSEMBLE
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE USING THE V COMPONENT OF THE WIND. A
SOLID HIGH END WIND ADVISORY LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE STRONGER GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS COULD
REACH 40 MPH POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A HIGH WIND WARNING. FOR NOW WILL
BLEND THE WEAKER NAM AND THE STRONGER GFS WHICH USUALLY IS A GOOD
COMBINATION IN THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION SITUATIONS. WILL LET
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS LOOK AT THE LATEST DATA FOR CHANGES. THE GRADIENT
SHIFTS EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED FURTHER EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
CHILLY HIGHS ON FRIDAY...RANGING BETWEEN 35 TO 45. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45 TO 55. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY WITH
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...MORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. COLDER AIR MONDAY BEHIND
THE SYSTEM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AS A QUICK MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WITH POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
CLIPPER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING WEST INTO MONTANA. LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS ON THE COOL
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IN SASKATCHEWAN. WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS
CURRENTLY IFR WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION IN SASK LOW MVFR. LESS
UNCERTAINTY NOW ABOUT IFR CONDITIONS WESTERN ND AND EXPECT THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR KISN-KMOT-KDIK AS THIS STRATUS MOVES SOUTH.
PATCHY DRIZZLE/FZDZ POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 292330
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WERE TRACKING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH CLEARING ALREADY SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THE RAIN WILL
END ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. COOL AIR ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. COOL AIR STRATUS IS PRETTY
WIDESPREAD IN SASKATCHEWAN AND IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO REGINA. THIS
WILL MOVE INGOT WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRY AIR ABOVE COULD CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FOR ANY EVIDENCE FOR
THIS. SO FAR CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF US
HIGHWAY 2 AS OF 1945 UTC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE
JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR
ITERATIONS...NAMELY THEIR 17-18 UTC RUNS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREAFTER...LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SATURATION AT TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -10 C...PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE FALL BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDY (30-50 MPH) CONDITIONS SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...WITH
20-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED WELL IN THE ENSEMBLE
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE USING THE V COMPONENT OF THE WIND. A
SOLID HIGH END WIND ADVISORY LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE STRONGER GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS COULD
REACH 40 MPH POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A HIGH WIND WARNING. FOR NOW WILL
BLEND THE WEAKER NAM AND THE STRONGER GFS WHICH USUALLY IS A GOOD
COMBINATION IN THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION SITUATIONS. WILL LET
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS LOOK AT THE LATEST DATA FOR CHANGES. THE GRADIENT
SHIFTS EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED FURTHER EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
CHILLY HIGHS ON FRIDAY...RANGING BETWEEN 35 TO 45. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45 TO 55. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY WITH
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...MORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. COLDER AIR MONDAY BEHIND
THE SYSTEM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AS A QUICK MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WITH POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
CLIPPER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AT 6 PM CDT...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WAS MOVING
EAST. THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 05Z. THE COOL AIR STRATUS WILL
SPREAD SOUTH FROM SASKATCHEWAN LATE TONIGHT BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS.
PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE KISN-KMOT BETWEEN 10Z-12Z.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 17Z.
&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 291957
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF US
HIGHWAY 2 AS OF 1945 UTC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE
JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR
ITERATIONS...NAMELY THEIR 17-18 UTC RUNS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREAFTER...LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SATURATION AT TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -10 C...PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE FALL BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDY (30-50 MPH) CONDITIONS SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...WITH
20-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED WELL IN THE ENSEMBLE
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE USING THE V COMPONENT OF THE WIND. A
SOLID HIGH END WIND ADVISORY LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE STRONGER GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS COULD
REACH 40 MPH POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A HIGH WIND WARNING. FOR NOW WILL
BLEND THE WEAKER NAM AND THE STRONGER GFS WHICH USUALLY IS A GOOD
COMBINATION IN THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION SITUATIONS. WILL LET
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS LOOK AT THE LATEST DATA FOR CHANGES. THE GRADIENT
SHIFTS EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED FURTHER EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
CHILLY HIGHS ON FRIDAY...RANGING BETWEEN 35 TO 45. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45 TO 55. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY WITH
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...MORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. COLDER AIR MONDAY BEHIND
THE SYSTEM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AS A QUICK MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WITH POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
CLIPPER WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

LIGHT RAIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 291751
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AS OF 1730 UTC...THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST CROSSING THROUGH THE
HIGHWAY 85 CORRIDOR. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE ALONG AND IN TRAIL OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH GLASGOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EXPECTATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION WITH
THE BEST CHANCES BOUNDED BETWEEN I-94 AND HIGHWAY 2.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AS OF 15 UTC
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE BOUNDED BY I-94 AND US
HIGHWAY 2 BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS...THE 00 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM...06
UTC GFS AND 09 UTC SREF. A FEW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
WEST AROUND MIDDAY...OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS OF THE STRATUS SHIELD MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE STATE...THEN
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN
MANITOBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HUDSON BAY. A
LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
EXTENDED WESTWARD TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE WEST...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM A
LOW OVER ALBERTA SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING.

THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE HUDSON
BAY LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST...AND AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. LATEST SAT
PICS INDICATE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS NEAR
STANLEY...TO MANDAN/BISMARCK...TO NEAR FORT YATES. KEPT THE MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS SKIES CLEAR...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS THAT MAY DROP
QUICKLY...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HAVE THESE CONDITIONS IN THOSE
FEW HOURS BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE.

THE LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE
JAMESTOWN AREA BEFORE NOON. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD OF THE NAM.

FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEFORE/AROUND NOON...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...AND KEPT CHANCES IN FOR
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LINGERING CHANCES IN THE JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING SURFACE LOW...AND WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...GOOD COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...AND A
LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SHORTWAVE TO LIFT
SOMEWHERE INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE WEAKENED THE
SHORTWAVE AND HAVE NUDGED ITS TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO
MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...PLACING IT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE
AN ISSUE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.

GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES...WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODEL BLEND. GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING
ECMWF AND GEM TRENDS...WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES SUNDAY-MONDAY. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT LATER RUNS OF THE GFS WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AS IT HAS ALL SEASON. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

A WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONT...WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. A COLD FRONT
WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THIS EVENING...WITH
MVFR STRATUS IN TRAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 291458
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
958 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AS OF 15 UTC
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE BOUNDED BY I-94 AND US
HIGHWAY 2 BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS...THE 00 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM...06
UTC GFS AND 09 UTC SREF. A FEW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
WEST AROUND MIDDAY...OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS OF THE STRATUS SHIELD MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE STATE...THEN
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN
MANITOBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HUDSON BAY. A
LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
EXTENDED WESTWARD TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE WEST...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM A
LOW OVER ALBERTA SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING.

THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE HUDSON
BAY LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST...AND AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. LATEST SAT
PICS INDICATE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS NEAR
STANLEY...TO MANDAN/BISMARCK...TO NEAR FORT YATES. KEPT THE MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS SKIES CLEAR...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS THAT MAY DROP
QUICKLY...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HAVE THESE CONDITIONS IN THOSE
FEW HOURS BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE.

THE LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE
JAMESTOWN AREA BEFORE NOON. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD OF THE NAM.

FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEFORE/AROUND NOON...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...AND KEPT CHANCES IN FOR
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LINGERING CHANCES IN THE JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING SURFACE LOW...AND WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...GOOD COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...AND A
LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SHORTWAVE TO LIFT
SOMEWHERE INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE WEAKENED THE
SHORTWAVE AND HAVE NUDGED ITS TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO
MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...PLACING IT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE
AN ISSUE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.

GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES...WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODEL BLEND. GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING
ECMWF AND GEM TRENDS...WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES SUNDAY-MONDAY. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT LATER RUNS OF THE GFS WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AS IT HAS ALL SEASON. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MVFR STRATUS WILL CLEAR KJMS AROUND 17 UTC. OTHERWISE...A WARM
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT...WITH
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. A COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR STRATUS IN TRAIL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 291146
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
646 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS OF THE STRATUS SHIELD MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE STATE...THEN
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN
MANITOBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HUDSON BAY. A
LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
EXTENDED WESTWARD TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE WEST...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM A
LOW OVER ALBERTA SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING.

THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE HUDSON
BAY LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST...AND AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. LATEST SAT
PICS INDICATE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS NEAR
STANLEY...TO MANDAN/BISMARCK...TO NEAR FORT YATES. KEPT THE MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS SKIES CLEAR...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS THAT MAY DROP
QUICKLY...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HAVE THESE CONDITIONS IN THOSE
FEW HOURS BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE.

THE LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE
JAMESTOWN AREA BEFORE NOON. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD OF THE NAM.

FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEFORE/AROUND NOON...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...AND KEPT CHANCES IN FOR
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LINGERING CHANCES IN THE JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING SURFACE LOW...AND WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...GOOD COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...AND A
LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SHORTWAVE TO LIFT
SOMEWHERE INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE WEAKENED THE
SHORTWAVE AND HAVE NUDGED ITS TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO
MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...PLACING IT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE
AN ISSUE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.

GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES...WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODEL BLEND. GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING
ECMWF AND GEM TRENDS...WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES SUNDAY-MONDAY. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT LATER RUNS OF THE GFS WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AS IT HAS ALL SEASON. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAS CLEARED AT STANLEY...BISMARCK...FORT
YATES. CLEARING IS NEAR KMOT AND LINTON. KEPT A MENTION OF MVFR
VSBYS IN FOG AT KBIS AND KMOT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRATUS. CLEARING AT KJMS AROUND 16Z. SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS TODAY BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH REGARDING MENTION IN TAFS. A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 01Z-03Z AND
SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING MVFR CIGS BEHIND IT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 290840
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE STATE...THEN
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN
MANITOBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HUDSON BAY. A
LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
EXTENDED WESTWARD TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE WEST...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM A
LOW OVER ALBERTA SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING.

THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE HUDSON
BAY LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST...AND AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. LATEST SAT
PICS INDICATE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS NEAR
STANLEY...TO MANDAN/BISMARCK...TO NEAR FORT YATES. KEPT THE MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS SKIES CLEAR...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS THAT MAY DROP
QUICKLY...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HAVE THESE CONDITIONS IN THOSE
FEW HOURS BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE.

THE LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE
JAMESTOWN AREA BEFORE NOON. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD OF THE NAM.

FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEFORE/AROUND NOON...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...AND KEPT CHANCES IN FOR
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LINGERING CHANCES IN THE JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING SURFACE LOW...AND WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...GOOD COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...AND A
LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SHORTWAVE TO LIFT
SOMEWHERE INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE WEAKENED THE
SHORTWAVE AND HAVE NUDGED ITS TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO
MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...PLACING IT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE
AN ISSUE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.

GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES...WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODEL BLEND. GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING
ECMWF AND GEM TRENDS...WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES SUNDAY-MONDAY. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT LATER RUNS OF THE GFS WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AS IT HAS ALL SEASON. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAS CLEARED AT CROSBY...KISN...KDIK AND GLEN
ULLIN. CLEARING IS NEAR TIOGA AND SHOULD CLEAR AT KBIS AROUND 08Z
AND AT KMOT AROUND 10Z. KEPT MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT KBIS AND KMOT ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS. CLEARING AT KJMS AROUND 16Z.
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
REGARDING MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 290554
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1254 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WESTERN MANITOBA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. WINDS EAST OF THE
RIDGE WERE NORTHWESTERLY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG THE
RIDGE AXIS...AND SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS WEST OF THE RIDGE.

THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. LATEST SAT PICS
INDICATE THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS NEAR CROSBY/TIOGA...JUST
EAST OF GLEN ULLIN...TO NEAR MOBRIDGE SD. TEMPERATURES ARE THE
TRICKIEST PORTION OF THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...AS TEMPS HAD DROPPED INTO THE TEENS IN SOME OF THE CLEAR
AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT THAT WHEN WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE WEST...THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH MIXING TO RAISE TEMPS THERE OR AT
LEAST KEEP TEMPS FROM CONTINUING TO DROP.

KEPT THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS SKIES
CLEAR...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
TEMPS THAT MAY DROP QUICKLY...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HAVE THESE
CONDITIONS IN THOSE FEW HOURS BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CLOUD CONTINUE TO CLEAR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST. UPDATED SKY
GRIDS TO KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST MOST OF THE NIGHT. WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THE WEST...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES HERE.
STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG CENTRAL AS STRATUS CLEARS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES REMAINING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING. THE SOUTHWEST HAS CLEARED WITH NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
EXPECTED TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. KEPT A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE HANDLED THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WELL THROUGHOUT
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR MOST RECENT
ITERATIONS FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT...NAMELY THEIR 18-19 UTC
RUNS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NOT CLEARING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL CLOSER TO 12
UTC WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID ADD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS WHERE WINDS
BECOME CALM. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE MENTION
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STREAMERS
CONTINUING TO COME OFF THE LAKE. RETURN FLOW COMMENCES TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS
FRONT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S...WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW READINGS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AREA WIDE AS A WEAK IMPULSE INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW
MODERATING TREND GETS UNDERWAY...FOLLOWED BY A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. A
HEADLINE MAY BE WARRANTED IN THE FUTURE IF THE SNOW/WINDS MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN FUTURE RUNS.

AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE WITH A DRY PATTERN...SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THURSDAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN EAST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY. THE WARMEST POCKET OF AIR SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT VIA A SOUTHWEST FLOW...AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD
FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH PASSES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. IN DOING SO...EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TAKING
IT ON A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRACK FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE GEM
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...MOVING IT FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN
A MORE BROAD/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. ALL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER
SHOW STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING/FALLING SNOW MAY BE THE GREATEST
IMPACT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE RUNS FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAS CLEARED AT CROSBY...KISN...KDIK AND GLEN
ULLIN. CLEARING IS NEAR TIOGA AND SHOULD CLEAR AT KBIS AROUND 08Z
AND AT KMOT AROUND 10Z. KEPT MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT KBIS AND KMOT ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS. CLEARING AT KJMS AROUND 16Z.
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
REGARDING MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 290249
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CLOUD CONTINUE TO CLEAR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST. UPDATED SKY
GRIDS TO KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST MOST OF THE NIGHT. WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THE WEST...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES HERE.
STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG CENTRAL AS STRATUS CLEARS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES REMAINING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING. THE SOUTHWEST HAS CLEARED WITH NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
EXPECTED TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. KEPT A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE HANDLED THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WELL THROUGHOUT
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR MOST RECENT
ITERATIONS FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT...NAMELY THEIR 18-19 UTC
RUNS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NOT CLEARING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL CLOSER TO 12
UTC WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID ADD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS WHERE WINDS
BECOME CALM. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE MENTION
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STREAMERS
CONTINUING TO COME OFF THE LAKE. RETURN FLOW COMMENCES TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS
FRONT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S...WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW READINGS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AREA WIDE AS A WEAK IMPULSE INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW
MODERATING TREND GETS UNDERWAY...FOLLOWED BY A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. A
HEADLINE MAY BE WARRANTED IN THE FUTURE IF THE SNOW/WINDS MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN FUTURE RUNS.

AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE WITH A DRY PATTERN...SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THURSDAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN EAST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY. THE WARMEST POCKET OF AIR SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT VIA A SOUTHWEST FLOW...AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD
FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH PASSES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. IN DOING SO...EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TAKING
IT ON A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRACK FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE GEM
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...MOVING IT FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN
A MORE BROAD/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. ALL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER
SHOW STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING/FALLING SNOW MAY BE THE GREATEST
IMPACT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE RUNS FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAS CLEARED AT KISN AND KDIK EARLY THIS
EVENING. BACK EDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 282349
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
649 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING. THE SOUTHWEST HAS CLEARED WITH NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
EXPECTED TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. KEPT A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK LATER TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE HANDLED THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WELL THROUGHOUT
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR MOST RECENT
ITERATIONS FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT...NAMELY THEIR 18-19 UTC
RUNS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NOT CLEARING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL CLOSER TO 12
UTC WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID ADD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS WHERE WINDS
BECOME CALM. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE MENTION
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STREAMERS
CONTINUING TO COME OFF THE LAKE. RETURN FLOW COMMENCES TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS
FRONT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S...WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW READINGS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AREA WIDE AS A WEAK IMPULSE INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW
MODERATING TREND GETS UNDERWAY...FOLLOWED BY A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SNOWSHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. A
HEADLINE MAY BE WARRANTED IN THE FUTURE IF THE SNOW/WINDS MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN FUTURE RUNS.

AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE WITH A DRY PATTERN...SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THURSDAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN EAST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY. THE WARMEST POCKET OF AIR SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT VIA A SOUTHWEST FLOW...AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD
FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH PASSES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. IN DOING SO...EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TAKING
IT ON A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRACK FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE GEM
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...MOVING IT FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN
A MORE BROAD/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. ALL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER
SHOW STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF SNOWSHOWERS.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING/FALLING SNOW MAY BE THE GREATEST
IMPACT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE RUNS FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS WILL CLEAR AT KISN AND KDIK EARLY THIS
EVENING THEN SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 282018
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
318 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE HANDLED THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WELL THROUGHOUT
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR MOST RECENT
ITERATIONS FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT...NAMELY THEIR 18-19 UTC
RUNS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NOT CLEARING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNTIL CLOSER TO 12
UTC WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID ADD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS WHERE WINDS
BECOME CALM. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE MENTION
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STREAMERS
CONTINUING TO COME OFF THE LAKE. RETURN FLOW COMMENCES TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS
FRONT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S...WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW READINGS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AREA WIDE AS A WEAK IMPULSE INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW
MODERATING TREND GETS UNDERWAY...FOLLOWED BY A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SNOWSHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. A
HEADLINE MAY BE WARRANTED IN THE FUTURE IF THE SNOW/WINDS MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN FUTURE RUNS.

AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE WITH A DRY PATTERN...SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THURSDAY INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN EAST OF NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY. THE WARMEST POCKET OF AIR SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT VIA A SOUTHWEST FLOW...AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD
FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH PASSES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. IN DOING SO...EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TAKING
IT ON A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRACK FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE GEM
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...MOVING IT FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN
A MORE BROAD/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. ALL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER
SHOW STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF SNOWSHOWERS.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING/FALLING SNOW MAY BE THE GREATEST
IMPACT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE RUNS FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
NEARLY ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE EVENING...SLOWLY ERODING FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRATUS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE CENTRAL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 281815
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
115 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. DID ADD SOME
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA WITH A FEW
STREAMERS COMING OFF THE LAKE BASED ON RADAR THROUGH 18 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE 12-13 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION
CONSENSUS....UTILIZED ITS SOLUTION FOR ALL FIELDS THROUGH 00 UTC
THIS EVENING IN A LOW UNCERTAINTY FORECAST IN THE COLD SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL AREAS EXPECT THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE
STRATUS WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

DELAYED THE ENDING TIMES BY A FEW HOURS FOR THE CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CURRENTLY...A STACKED UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO WITH A
LARGE AREA OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ORIENTED NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AS MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. ANOTHER ENHANCED AREA OF
RADAR ECHOES IN THE JAMESTOWN AREA APPEARS COINCIDENT WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE.

TODAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW DECREASING IN INTENSITY. THUS EXPECT
AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH TIME THIS
MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THERE SHOULD BE SOME RIDGING
PUSHING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING DECREASING CLOUDS IN
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.

THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY GOOD SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...FINALLY DECREASING TOWARDS EVENING.
LOOKING FOR HIGHS TODAY REACHING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH
TO THE LOW/MID 40S SOUTH.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DECREASE/BECOME CALM LATER TONIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH ARE
FORECAST TO PIVOT ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
FORECAST TO START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A SHORTWAVE TO LIFT SOMEWHERE INTO
EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE...PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA COULD SEE SOME SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW DURING
THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES...IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THE
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW THREAT WILL DEVELOP. AS A RESULT...BROADBRUSHED
CHANCE POPS FOR THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD AND INDICATED THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SLOWLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS. NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD








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