000
FXUS63 KBIS 240630 CCA
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WORDING IN UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
127 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS WINDS WERE DECREASING
WITH GUSTS NOW 35 MPH AND BELOW...AND THOSE HIGHER SPEEDS WERE
CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

CONVECTION IN MONTANA...FROM BILLINGS THROUGH THE GLASGOW AREA WAS
MOVING STRAIGHT NORTH WITH NO RETURNS NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE
BISMARCK FORECAST AREA.

NAM...AND HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL...SHOW NO
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE AFTERNOON. NAM ALSO SHOWS
NO CAPE...AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA UNTIL AFTERNOON.
HAVE OPTED TO DROP POPS FOR THE REST OF THIS FRIDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUD FORECAST MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC...IT MAY BE
CLOUDIER THAN WE ARE FORECASTING. WILL REEVALUATE THAT FOR NEXT
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE THE WINDS AROUND AND IN THE
ADVISORY AREAS SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL. WITH THE PAST
HOUR...WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 48 MPH AT BAKER MONTANA...40 AT
BUFFALO SOUTH DAKOTA...AND 37 MPH AT DICKINSON. THESE ARE ALL IN
OR NEAR THE ADVISORY SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY...PROBABLY
THROUGH THE TERMINATION AT 06Z/1 AM CDT. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT CLOUDS
ARE INCREASING WEST..AND CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS ARE
INCREASING ACROSS THE WEST. WINDS STILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 MPH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RAIN STILL EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY
MORNING. OTHER THAN THE CLOUDS...CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM ARE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING SOUTHWEST AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

DID EXTEND THE ONGOING WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH 06 UTC TONIGHT. 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD AFTER 00 UTC. WHILE LAPSE RATES
DO DECREASE TO NEAR ISOTHERMAL FROM BELOW 900 MB...IT APPEARS
THAT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR 35+ KT
GUSTS AFTER THE ORIGINAL 03 UTC EXPIRATION TIME.

FOR FRIDAY...A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE/MOISTURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 85 AND 83
CORRIDORS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
CAPPING IN A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...HOWEVER...IF
SURFACE HEATING CAN OVERCOME THE CAPE....ML CAPE VALUES OF
800-1000 J/KG WITH 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE AVAILABLE WHICH
COULD SUPPORT A LOW END...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...AGAIN IF
CAPPING CAN BE OVERCOME. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WEAK VERTICAL
INSTABILITY LIMITING THE THUNDER THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE SUITE OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVE GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN...BUT DIVERGE/DISAGREE CONCERNING FORECAST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDING TAKING PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD LOW OVER THE WESTERN US. BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO OUR EAST ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN
US. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE DURATION OF THE
PERIOD...AS MULTIPLE IMPULSES RIDE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z MODELS FOR PRECIP CHANCES AND UTILIZED WPC
QPF FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS.

THE POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD REMAINS LOW. THE ENTIRE CWA IS OUTLINED IN THE GENERAL RISK
FOR DAY 3 BY THE SPC FOR SATURDAY. MIXED LAYER CAPE FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 2400 J/KG...HOWEVER...THE
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT. THE LIMITING FACTORS THAT
WILL COME INTO PLAY WILL BE THE UNFAVORABLE DYNAMICS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND LIMITED MOISTURE (DEW POINTS IN THE
50S. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...BUT ML CAPE WILL BE IN THE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE OVER THE COMING DAYS. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
OF SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM THE MID SHIFT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION THROUGH 12Z WILL BE THE SURFACE WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KDIK AND KISN AS A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET RUNS THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...UP TO
50 KNOTS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH MOST PLACES REMAINING VFR. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE MAIN HYDROLOGY CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD
FOR NEXT WEEK ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOLLOWING THE
RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...HOWEVER...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...LTH
AVIATION...JPM
HYDROLOGY...AYD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 240627
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
127 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS WINDS WERE DECREASING
WITH GUSTS NOW 35 MPH AND BELOW...AND THOSE HIGHER SPEEDS WERE
CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

CONVECTION IN MONTANA...FROM BILLINGS THROUGH THE GLASGOW AREA WAS
MOVING STRAIGHT NORTH WITH NO RETURNS NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE
BISMARCK FORECAST AREA.

NAM...AND HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL...SHOW NO
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 1AFTERNOON. NAM ALSO SHOWS
NO CAPE...AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA UNTIL AFTERNOON.
HAVE OPTED TO DROP POPS FOR THE REST OF THIS FRIDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUD FORECAST MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC IT MAY BE
CLOUDIER THAN WE ARE FORECASTING). WILL REEVALUATE THAT FOR NEXT
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE THE WINDS AROUND AND IN THE
ADVISORY AREAS SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL. WITH THE PAST
HOUR...WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 48 MPH AT BAKER MONTANA...40 AT
BUFFALO SOUTH DAKOTA...AND 37 MPH AT DICKINSON. THESE ARE ALL IN
OR NEAR THE ADVISORY SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY...PROBABLY
THROUGH THE TERMINATION AT 06Z/1 AM CDT. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT CLOUDS
ARE INCREASING WEST..AND CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS ARE
INCREASING ACROSS THE WEST. WINDS STILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 MPH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RAIN STILL EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY
MORNING. OTHER THAN THE CLOUDS...CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM ARE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING SOUTHWEST AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

DID EXTEND THE ONGOING WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH 06 UTC TONIGHT. 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD AFTER 00 UTC. WHILE LAPSE RATES
DO DECREASE TO NEAR ISOTHERMAL FROM BELOW 900 MB...IT APPEARS
THAT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR 35+ KT
GUSTS AFTER THE ORIGINAL 03 UTC EXPIRATION TIME.

FOR FRIDAY...A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE/MOISTURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 85 AND 83
CORRIDORS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
CAPPING IN A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...HOWEVER...IF
SURFACE HEATING CAN OVERCOME THE CAPE....ML CAPE VALUES OF
800-1000 J/KG WITH 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE AVAILABLE WHICH
COULD SUPPORT A LOW END...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...AGAIN IF
CAPPING CAN BE OVERCOME. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WEAK VERTICAL
INSTABILITY LIMITING THE THUNDER THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE SUITE OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVE GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND UNSETTLED PATTERN...BUT
DIVERGE/DISAGREE CONCERNING FORECAST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDING TAKING PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
LOW OVER THE WESTERN US. BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO OUR EAST ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD...AS
MULTIPLE IMPULSES RIDE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
12Z MODELS FOR PRECIP CHANCES AND UTILIZED WPC QPF FOR PRECIP
AMOUNTS.

THE POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD REMAINS LOW. THE ENTIRE CWA IS OUTLINED IN THE GENERAL RISK
FOR DAY 3 BY THE SPC FOR SATURDAY. MIXED LAYER CAPE FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 2400 J/KG...HOWEVER...THE
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT. THE LIMITING FACTORS THAT
WILL COME INTO PLAY WILL BE THE UNFAVORABLE DYNAMICS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND LIMITED MOISTURE (DEW POINTS IN THE
50S. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...BUT ML CAPE WILL BE IN THE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE OVER THE COMING DAYS. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
OF SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM THE MID SHIFT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION THROUGH 12Z WILL BE THE SURFACE WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KDIK AND KISN AS A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET RUNS THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...UP TO
50 KNOTS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH MOST PLACES REMAINING VFR. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE MAIN HYDROLOGY CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD
FOR NEXT WEEK ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOLLOWING THE
RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...HOWEVER...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...LTH
AVIATION...JPM
HYDROLOGY...AYD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 240227
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
927 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE THE WINDS AROUND AND IN THE
ADVISORY AREAS SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL. WITH THE PAST
HOUR...WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 48 MPH AT BAKER MONTANA...40 AT
BUFFALO SOUTH DAKOTA...AND 37 MPH AT DICKINSON. THESE ARE ALL IN
OR NEAR THE ADVISORY SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY...PROBABLY
THROUGH THE TERMINATION AT 06Z/1 AM CDT. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT CLOUDS
ARE INCREASING WEST..AND CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS ARE
INCREASING ACROSS THE WEST. WINDS STILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 MPH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RAIN STILL EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY
MORNING. OTHER THAN THE CLOUDS...CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM ARE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING SOUTHWEST AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

DID EXTEND THE ONGOING WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH 06 UTC TONIGHT. 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD AFTER 00 UTC. WHILE LAPSE RATES
DO DECREASE TO NEAR ISOTHERMAL FROM BELOW 900 MB...IT APPEARS
THAT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR 35+ KT
GUSTS AFTER THE ORIGINAL 03 UTC EXPIRATION TIME.

FOR FRIDAY...A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE/MOISTURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 85 AND 83
CORRIDORS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
CAPPING IN A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...HOWEVER...IF
SURFACE HEATING CAN OVERCOME THE CAPE....ML CAPE VALUES OF
800-1000 J/KG WITH 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE AVAILABLE WHICH
COULD SUPPORT A LOW END...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...AGAIN IF
CAPPING CAN BE OVERCOME. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WEAK VERTICAL
INSTABILITY LIMITING THE THUNDER THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE SUITE OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVE GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND UNSETTLED PATTERN...BUT
DIVERGE/DISAGREE CONCERNING FORECAST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDING TAKING PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
LOW OVER THE WESTERN US. BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO OUR EAST ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD...AS
MULTIPLE IMPULSES RIDE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
12Z MODELS FOR PRECIP CHANCES AND UTILIZED WPC QPF FOR PRECIP
AMOUNTS.

THE POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD REMAINS LOW. THE ENTIRE CWA IS OUTLINED IN THE GENERAL RISK
FOR DAY 3 BY THE SPC FOR SATURDAY. MIXED LAYER CAPE FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 2400 J/KG...HOWEVER...THE
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT. THE LIMITING FACTORS THAT
WILL COME INTO PLAY WILL BE THE UNFAVORABLE DYNAMICS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND LIMITED MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...BUT ML CAPE WILL BE IN THE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE OVER THE COMING DAYS. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
OF SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM THE MID SHIFT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY EVENING WILL
BE STRONG SURFACE WINDS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z...HOWEVER LOWER CEILINGS WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE WEST...FROM KISN-KDIK-KMOT-KBIS AFTER 12Z AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON
FRIDAY. KDIK WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THREAT WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT KDIK-KISN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND LOW COVERAGE...LEFT OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE MAIN HYDROLOGY CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD
FOR NEXT WEEK ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOLLOWING THE
RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...HOWEVER...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ017-
018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...LTH
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 240001
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
701 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS ARE
INCREASING ACROSS THE WEST. WINDS STILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 MPH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RAIN STILL EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY
MORNING. OTHER THAN THE CLOUDS...CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM ARE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING SOUTHWEST AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

DID EXTEND THE ONGOING WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH 06 UTC TONIGHT. 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD AFTER 00 UTC. WHILE LAPSE RATES
DO DECREASE TO NEAR ISOTHERMAL FROM BELOW 900 MB...IT APPEARS
THAT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR 35+ KT
GUSTS AFTER THE ORIGINAL 03 UTC EXPIRATION TIME.

FOR FRIDAY...A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE/MOISTURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 85 AND 83
CORRIDORS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
CAPPING IN A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...HOWEVER...IF
SURFACE HEATING CAN OVERCOME THE CAPE....ML CAPE VALUES OF
800-1000 J/KG WITH 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE AVAILABLE WHICH
COULD SUPPORT A LOW END...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...AGAIN IF
CAPPING CAN BE OVERCOME. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WEAK VERTICAL
INSTABILITY LIMITING THE THUNDER THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE SUITE OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVE GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND UNSETTLED PATTERN...BUT
DIVERGE/DISAGREE CONCERNING FORECAST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDING TAKING PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
LOW OVER THE WESTERN US. BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO OUR EAST ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD...AS
MULTIPLE IMPULSES RIDE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
12Z MODELS FOR PRECIP CHANCES AND UTILIZED WPC QPF FOR PRECIP
AMOUNTS.

THE POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD REMAINS LOW. THE ENTIRE CWA IS OUTLINED IN THE GENERAL RISK
FOR DAY 3 BY THE SPC FOR SATURDAY. MIXED LAYER CAPE FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 2400 J/KG...HOWEVER...THE
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT. THE LIMITING FACTORS THAT
WILL COME INTO PLAY WILL BE THE UNFAVORABLE DYNAMICS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND LIMITED MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...BUT ML CAPE WILL BE IN THE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE OVER THE COMING DAYS. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
OF SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM THE MID SHIFT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE STRONG SURFACE WINDS PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
12Z...HOWEVER LOWER CEILINGS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE WEST...FROM
KISN-KDIK-KMOT-KBIS AFTER 12Z AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY. KDIK WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT KDIK-KISN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER...DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AND LOW COVERAGE...LEFT OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE MAIN HYDROLOGY CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD
FOR NEXT WEEK ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOLLOWING THE
RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...HOWEVER...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ017-
018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...LTH
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 232038
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM ARE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING SOUTHWEST AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

DID EXTEND THE ONGOING WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH 06 UTC TONIGHT. 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD AFTER 00 UTC. WHILE LAPSE RATES
DO DECREASE TO NEAR ISOTHERMAL FROM BELOW 900 MB...IT APPEARS
THAT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR 35+ KT
GUSTS AFTER THE ORIGINAL 03 UTC EXPIRATION TIME.

FOR FRIDAY...A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE/MOISTURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 85 AND 83
CORRIDORS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
CAPPING IN A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...HOWEVER...IF
SURFACE HEATING CAN OVERCOME THE CAPE....ML CAPE VALUES OF
800-1000 J/KG WITH 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE AVAILABLE WHICH
COULD SUPPORT A LOW END...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...AGAIN IF
CAPPING CAN BE OVERCOME. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WEAK VERTICAL
INSTABILITY LIMITING THE THUNDER THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE SUITE OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVE GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AND UNSETTLED PATTERN...BUT
DIVERGE/DISAGREE CONCERNING FORECAST PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDING TAKING PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
LOW OVER THE WESTERN US. BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO OUR EAST ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD...AS
MULTIPLE IMPULSES RIDE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
12Z MODELS FOR PRECIP CHANCES AND UTILIZED WPC QPF FOR PRECIP
AMOUNTS.

THE POTENTIAL AND CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD REMAINS LOW. THE ENTIRE CWA IS OUTLINED IN THE GENERAL RISK
FOR DAY 3 BY THE SPC FOR SATURDAY. MIXED LAYER CAPE FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 2400 J/KG...HOWEVER...THE
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT. THE LIMITING FACTORS THAT
WILL COME INTO PLAY WILL BE THE UNFAVORABLE DYNAMICS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND LIMITED MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...BUT ML CAPE WILL BE IN THE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE OVER THE COMING DAYS. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
OF SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM THE MID SHIFT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. THE MAIN HAZARD TO
AVIATION WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 KTS FROM FOR KISN AND KDIK THROUGH AT LEAST 06 UTC...WITH A LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND LOW COVERAGE...LEFT OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE MAIN HYDROLOGY CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD
FOR NEXT WEEK ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOLLOWING THE
RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...HOWEVER...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ017-
018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...LTH
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...AYD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 231803
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
103 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO BLEND TO THE 18 UTC OBSERVED TRENDS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS
WHETHER THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL NEED TO
BE EXTENDED PAST 03 UTC. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DOES STRENGTHEN
PAST 03 UTC...HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES DECREASE TO NEAR ISOTHERMAL
THROUGH 900 MB...WHICH PLACES UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
MOMENTUM CAN BE TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO BLEND TO THE 12 UTC OBSERVED TRENDS. THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED
BASED UPON THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. NO UPDATES TO HEADLINES ARE REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...NOT TOO
MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE
UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
WINDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING...WITH A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER
THE ROCKIES ADVECTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
MONTANA INTO MY WESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS MAINTAIN UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY FROM
PRECIPITATION GENERATED FROM THE UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR WEST. CLOUDS
MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO IMPACT DAYTIME HIGHS SOMEWHAT...MAINLY
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE BETTER PERFORMING MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY COOLER
DAYTIME HIGHS COMPARED TO MY CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WYOMING AND
MONTANA TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHERE WIND
HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GRADIENT FORCING IS
GREATEST...YIELDING SUSTAINED WINDS TO 35 MPH AND PEAK GUSTS
APPROACHING 50 MPH. OPTED TO LEAVE THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS...BUT
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME...POSSIBLY EXPANDED EAST...AS THE
TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND
NEVER RELAXES UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING A STRONG 50-55KT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...WHICH MAY
PROVIDE SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. THE LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NIGHTTIME INVERSION AROUND 02-04Z
THIS THURSDAY EVENING. THUS THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER
OR NOT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT AND HOW FAR
EAST THEY DEVELOP.

STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE UPPER LOW ROTATES NORTHEAST
TOWARDS CENTRAL MONTANA LATE TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY MORNING SO KEPT THURSDAY NIGHT DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

FRIDAY KICKS OFF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS OF THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS A
RESULT...CONTINUED TO FOLLOW A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PROGGED TO EJECT ITS
FIRST IMPULSE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST WITH PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. AS A RESULT...SHIFTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS FORECAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
COMBINED WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS COULD GENERATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN STORMS BECOMING SEVERE IS STILL LOW AT THIS
TIME. SPC CONCURS AND HAS THIS AREA UNDER "SEE TEXT" FOR THE DAY 3
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE SEVERE MENTION OUT
OF THE ZONES AND HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TAP
WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BY WEDNESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. THE MAIN HAZARD TO
AVIATION WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN TERMINALS...INCLUDING
KISN- KDIK.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-
018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 231455
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
955 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO BLEND TO THE 12 UTC OBSERVED TRENDS. THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED
BASED UPON THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. NO UPDATES TO HEADLINES ARE REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...NOT TOO
MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE
UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
WINDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING...WITH A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER
THE ROCKIES ADVECTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
MONTANA INTO MY WESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS MAINTAIN UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY FROM
PRECIPITATION GENERATED FROM THE UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR WEST. CLOUDS
MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO IMPACT DAYTIME HIGHS SOMEWHAT...MAINLY
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE BETTER PERFORMING MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY COOLER
DAYTIME HIGHS COMPARED TO MY CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WYOMING AND
MONTANA TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHERE WIND
HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GRADIENT FORCING IS
GREATEST...YIELDING SUSTAINED WINDS TO 35 MPH AND PEAK GUSTS
APPROACHING 50 MPH. OPTED TO LEAVE THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS...BUT
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME...POSSIBLY EXPANDED EAST...AS THE
TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND
NEVER RELAXES UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING A STRONG 50-55KT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...WHICH MAY
PROVIDE SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. THE LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NIGHTTIME INVERSION AROUND 02-04Z
THIS THURSDAY EVENING. THUS THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER
OR NOT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT AND HOW FAR
EAST THEY DEVELOP.

STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE UPPER LOW ROTATES NORTHEAST
TOWARDS CENTRAL MONTANA LATE TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY MORNING SO KEPT THURSDAY NIGHT DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

FRIDAY KICKS OFF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS OF THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS A
RESULT...CONTINUED TO FOLLOW A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PROGGED TO EJECT ITS
FIRST IMPULSE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST WITH PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. AS A RESULT...SHIFTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS FORECAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
COMBINED WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS COULD GENERATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN STORMS BECOMING SEVERE IS STILL LOW AT THIS
TIME. SPC CONCURS AND HAS THIS AREA UNDER "SEE TEXT" FOR THE DAY 3
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE SEVERE MENTION OUT
OF THE ZONES AND HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TAP
WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BY WEDNESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. THE MAIN HAZARD TO
AVIATION WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 15Z THURSDAY OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS...INCLUDING KISN-KDIK.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-
018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 231145
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
645 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. NO UPDATES TO HEADLINES ARE REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...NOT TOO
MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE
UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
WINDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING...WITH A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER
THE ROCKIES ADVECTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
MONTANA INTO MY WESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS MAINTAIN UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY FROM
PRECIPITATION GENERATED FROM THE UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR WEST. CLOUDS
MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO IMPACT DAYTIME HIGHS SOMEWHAT...MAINLY
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE BETTER PERFORMING MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY COOLER
DAYTIME HIGHS COMPARED TO MY CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WYOMING AND
MONTANA TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHERE WIND
HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GRADIENT FORCING IS
GREATEST...YIELDING SUSTAINED WINDS TO 35 MPH AND PEAK GUSTS
APPROACHING 50 MPH. OPTED TO LEAVE THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS...BUT
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME...POSSIBLY EXPANDED EAST...AS THE
TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND
NEVER RELAXES UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING A STRONG 50-55KT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...WHICH MAY
PROVIDE SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. THE LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NIGHTTIME INVERSION AROUND 02-04Z
THIS THURSDAY EVENING. THUS THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER
OR NOT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT AND HOW FAR
EAST THEY DEVELOP.

STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE UPPER LOW ROTATES NORTHEAST
TOWARDS CENTRAL MONTANA LATE TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY MORNING SO KEPT THURSDAY NIGHT DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

FRIDAY KICKS OFF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS OF THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS A
RESULT...CONTINUED TO FOLLOW A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PROGGED TO EJECT ITS
FIRST IMPULSE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST WITH PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. AS A RESULT...SHIFTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS FORECAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
COMBINED WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS COULD GENERATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN STORMS BECOMING SEVERE IS STILL LOW AT THIS
TIME. SPC CONCURS AND HAS THIS AREA UNDER "SEE TEXT" FOR THE DAY 3
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE SEVERE MENTION OUT
OF THE ZONES AND HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TAP
WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BY WEDNESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. THE MAIN HAZARD TO
AVIATION WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 15Z THURSDAY OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS...INCLUDING KISN-KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-
044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH

000
FXUS63 KBIS 230844
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
344 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
WINDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING...WITH A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER
THE ROCKIES ADVECTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
MONTANA INTO MY WESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS MAINTAIN UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY FROM
PRECIPITATION GENERATED FROM THE UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR WEST. CLOUDS
MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO IMPACT DAYTIME HIGHS SOMEWHAT...MAINLY
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE BETTER PERFORMING MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY COOLER
DAYTIME HIGHS COMPARED TO MY CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WYOMING AND
MONTANA TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHERE WIND
HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GRADIENT FORCING IS
GREATEST...YIELDING SUSTAINED WINDS TO 35 MPH AND PEAK GUSTS
APPROACHING 50 MPH. OPTED TO LEAVE THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS...BUT
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME...POSSIBLY EXPANDED EAST...AS THE
TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND
NEVER RELAXES UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODELS
ARE DEVELOPING A STRONG 50-55KT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...WHICH MAY
PROVIDE SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. THE LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NIGHTTIME INVERSION AROUND 02-04Z
THIS THURSDAY EVENING. THUS THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER
OR NOT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT AND HOW FAR
EAST THEY DEVELOP.

STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE UPPER LOW ROTATES NORTHEAST
TOWARDS CENTRAL MONTANA LATE TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY MORNING SO KEPT THURSDAY NIGHT DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

FRIDAY KICKS OFF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS OF THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS A
RESULT...CONTINUED TO FOLLOW A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS PROGGED TO EJECT ITS
FIRST IMPULSE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST WITH PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. AS A RESULT...SHIFTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS FORECAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
COMBINED WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS COULD GENERATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN STORMS BECOMING SEVERE IS STILL LOW AT THIS
TIME. SPC CONCURS AND HAS THIS AREA UNDER "SEE TEXT" FOR THE DAY 3
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE SEVERE MENTION OUT
OF THE ZONES AND HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TAP
WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BY WEDNESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. THE MAIN HAZARD TO
AVIATION WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 15Z THURSDAY OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS...INCLUDING KISN-KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-
044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH

000
FXUS63 KBIS 230606
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
106 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATED
PACKAGE.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING WELL. ONE CHANGE MADE WAS TI INCREASE
CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST WHERE
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

COOL AIR ALOFT BETWEEN H850 AND H700 APPEARS THE CULPRIT FOR A
BAND OF CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO DEVILS LAKE. DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A
WIND SHIFT LINE BUT SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE CLOUDS APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE, AT THIS TIME ADDED CLOUDS THAT
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...BUT DID NOT ADD SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS...
BUT WILL MONITOR. OTHERWISE CURRENT TRENDS LOOK GOOD.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF FOG DESPITE THE RECENT
RAINFALL AS EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO HOLD OFF FOG FORMATION. THIS IS
CONFIRMED BY THE 19 UTC LAMP GUIDANCE AND 15 UTC SREF VISIBILITY
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS.

FOR THURSDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA
AND A RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE
GRADIENT WINDS ARE GREATEST...WITH 40-45 KTS TO MIX AT THE BASE
OF AN INVERSION AT 800 MB FORMED BY A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME IN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WIND DIRECTION DOES LIMIT
MIXING HEIGHTS...AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR 50+ KTS WITHIN THE
INVERSION TO BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE. HAVE THUS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA FROM 15-03 UTC.
OTHERWISE...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FIELDS A BLEND OF
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUITE WAS USED
GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/ROCKIES WILL EXPAND...AND FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
STATE.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG THE FIRST IMPULSE TO EJECT FROM OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST/ROCKIES LOW OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DEVELOPING AREA-WIDE ON FRIDAY...WITH THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TAP WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT RETURN
FLOW SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HIGHS
IN THE 60S CENTRAL AND 70S WEST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MEMORIAL DAY...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S OVER ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. THE MAIN HAZARD TO
AVIATION WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 15Z THURSDAY OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS...INCLUDING KISN-KDIK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

LAKE DARLING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RELEASES TO 1000 CFS THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SOURIS RIVER AT FOXHOLM TO RISE ABOVE
MINOR FLOOD STAGE. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY AS A POSSIBLE RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
IS FORECAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW
MUCH WATER WILL ARRIVE IN THE CHANNEL FROM RECENT RAINFALL.
FINALLY...DID CANCEL THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR
PINGREE AS RUNOFF HAS TURNED OUT TO BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-
044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AYD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 230253
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING WELL. ONE CHANGE MADE WAS TI INCREASE
CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST WHERE
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCT MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

COOL AIR ALOFT BETWEEN H850 AND H700 APPEARS THE CULPRIT FOR A
BAND OF CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO DEVILS LAKE. DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A
WIND SHIFT LINE BUT SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE CLOUDS APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE, AT THIS TIME ADDED CLOUDS THAT
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...BUT DID NOT ADD SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS...
BUT WILL MONITOR. OTHERWISE CURRENT TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF FOG DESPITE THE RECENT
RAINFALL AS EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO HOLD OFF FOG FORMATION. THIS IS
CONFIRMED BY THE 19 UTC LAMP GUIDANCE AND 15 UTC SREF VISIBILITY
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS.

FOR THURSDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA
AND A RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE
GRADIENT WINDS ARE GREATEST...WITH 40-45 KTS TO MIX AT THE BASE
OF AN INVERSION AT 800 MB FORMED BY A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME IN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WIND DIRECTION DOES LIMIT
MIXING HEIGHTS...AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR 50+ KTS WITHIN THE
INVERSION TO BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE. HAVE THUS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA FROM 15-03 UTC.
OTHERWISE...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FIELDS A BLEND OF
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUITE WAS USED
GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/ROCKIES WILL EXPAND...AND FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
STATE.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG THE FIRST IMPULSE TO EJECT FROM OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST/ROCKIES LOW OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DEVELOPING AREA-WIDE ON FRIDAY...WITH THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TAP WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT RETURN
FLOW SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HIGHS
IN THE 60S CENTRAL AND 70S WEST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MEMORIAL DAY...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S OVER ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

AT 9 PM CDT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED FROM MANITOBA SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. THE MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE
MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AFTER 15Z THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

LAKE DARLING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RELEASES TO 1000 CFS THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SOURIS RIVER AT FOXHOLM TO RISE ABOVE
MINOR FLOOD STAGE. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY AS A POSSIBLE RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
IS FORECAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW
MUCH WATER WILL ARRIVE IN THE CHANNEL FROM RECENT RAINFALL.
FINALLY...DID CANCEL THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR
PINGREE AS RUNOFF HAS TURNED OUT TO BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/
THURSDAY FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 230011
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
711 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

COOL AIR ALOFT BETWEEN H850 AND H700 APPEARS THE CULPRIT FOR A
BAND OF CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO DEVILS LAKE. DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A
WIND SHIFT LINE BUT SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE CLOUDS APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE, AT THIS TIME ADDED CLOUDS THAT
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...BUT DID NOT ADD SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS...
BUT WILL MONITOR. OTHERWISE CURRENT TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF FOG DESPITE THE RECENT
RAINFALL AS EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO HOLD OFF FOG FORMATION. THIS IS
CONFIRMED BY THE 19 UTC LAMP GUIDANCE AND 15 UTC SREF VISIBILITY
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS.

FOR THURSDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA
AND A RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE
GRADIENT WINDS ARE GREATEST...WITH 40-45 KTS TO MIX AT THE BASE
OF AN INVERSION AT 800 MB FORMED BY A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME IN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WIND DIRECTION DOES LIMIT
MIXING HEIGHTS...AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR 50+ KTS WITHIN THE
INVERSION TO BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE. HAVE THUS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA FROM 15-03 UTC.
OTHERWISE...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FIELDS A BLEND OF
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUITE WAS USED
GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/ROCKIES WILL EXPAND...AND FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
STATE.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG THE FIRST IMPULSE TO EJECT FROM OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST/ROCKIES LOW OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DEVELOPING AREA-WIDE ON FRIDAY...WITH THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TAP WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT RETURN
FLOW SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HIGHS
IN THE 60S CENTRAL AND 70S WEST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MEMORIAL DAY...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S OVER ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY
LOW PRESSURE IN MONTANA AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM MANITOBA INTO
MINNESOTA WILL BRING INCREASING SURFACE WINDS TO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. KISN-KDIK WILL SEE WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

LAKE DARLING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RELEASES TO 1000 CFS THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SOURIS RIVER AT FOXHOLM TO RISE ABOVE
MINOR FLOOD STAGE. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY AS A POSSIBLE RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
IS FORECAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW
MUCH WATER WILL ARRIVE IN THE CHANNEL FROM RECENT RAINFALL.
FINALLY...DID CANCEL THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR
PINGREE AS RUNOFF HAS TURNED OUT TO BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/
THURSDAY FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 222018
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
318 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF FOG DESPITE THE RECENT
RAINFALL AS EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO HOLD OFF FOG FORMATION. THIS IS
CONFIRMED BY THE 19 UTC LAMP GUIDANCE AND 15 UTC SREF VISIBILITY
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS.

FOR THURSDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA
AND A RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE
GRADIENT WINDS ARE GREATEST...WITH 40-45 KTS TO MIX AT THE BASE
OF AN INVERSION AT 800 MB FORMED BY A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME IN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WIND DIRECTION DOES LIMIT
MIXING HEIGHTS...AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR 50+ KTS WITHIN THE
INVERSION TO BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE. HAVE THUS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA FROM 15-03 UTC.
OTHERWISE...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FIELDS A BLEND OF
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUITE WAS USED
GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/ROCKIES WILL EXPAND...AND FRIDAY WILL
BEGIN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
STATE.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG THE FIRST IMPULSE TO EJECT FROM OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST/ROCKIES LOW OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DEVELOPING AREA-WIDE ON FRIDAY...WITH THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TAP WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT RETURN
FLOW SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HIGHS
IN THE 60S CENTRAL AND 70S WEST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MEMORIAL DAY...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S OVER ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL...EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...FOR WEDNESDAY...STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
MONTANA. GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KDIK...25-30 KTS AT
KISN...KMOT AND KBIS...AND 20-25 KTS AT KJMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

LAKE DARLING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RELEASES TO 1000 CFS THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SOURIS RIVER AT FOXHOLM TO RISE ABOVE
MINOR FLOOD STAGE. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY AS A POSSIBLE RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
IS FORECAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW
MUCH WATER WILL ARRIVE IN THE CHANNEL FROM RECENT RAINFALL.
FINALLY...DID CANCEL THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR
PINGREE AS RUNOFF HAS TURNED OUT TO BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/
THURSDAY FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...AYD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 221733
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN RISING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED...AND
THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY CHANGES WERE TO
CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE 22.12Z
NAM AND LATEST RAP STILL SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DID NOT
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THAT AREA FOR THE UPDATE...BUT WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS IN CASE A STRAY SHOWER TRIES TO
MOVE IN LATER.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH THE MOST
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS OF MID
MORNING. ADJUSTED NEAR TERM SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
TRENDS...WITH THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON STILL ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ENOUGH GRADIENT FLOW HAS DEVELOPED TO MIX OUT MORNING FOG
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AS OF THE 11Z
OBS...THERE WAS NO FOG REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. AS A
RESULT...REMOVED MORNING FOG WORDING FROM THE GRIDS AND ZONES.

FURTHERMORE...REGIONAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. LOWERED MORNING POPS AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO ADVECT WEST-SOUTHWEST FURTHER
SOUTH...STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...AND SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH NOW THROUGH 15Z. WILL MAINTAIN
MORNING FOG NORTH WITH T/TD SPREADS NEARING ZERO AS SKIES
CLEAR...AND SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES REPORTING FOG. WILL MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE DENSE FOG...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE SO DO NOT EXPECT THE DURATION OF THE FOG TO BE VERY
LONG.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS TODAY...WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE
LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF DO GENERATE 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
THINGS DRY...BUT COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS/DEVILS LAKE BASIN AREA.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WEDNESDAY THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 35-45. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 TO 45. SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW INCREASES
LATE TONIGHT FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE WEST IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG THE FIRST IMPULSE TO EJECT FROM OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DEVELOPING
AREAWIDE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE TAP WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT
RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY
TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

EAST / NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASED LATE THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT WILL INCREASE
AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ONLY PASSING SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 4KFT EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...CK

000
FXUS63 KBIS 221512
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1012 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE 22.12Z
NAM AND LATEST RAP STILL SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DID NOT
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THAT AREA FOR THE UPDATE...BUT WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS IN CASE A STRAY SHOWER TRIES TO
MOVE IN LATER.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH THE MOST
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS OF MID
MORNING. ADJUSTED NEAR TERM SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
TRENDS...WITH THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON STILL ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ENOUGH GRADIENT FLOW HAS DEVELOPED TO MIX OUT MORNING FOG
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AS OF THE 11Z
OBS...THERE WAS NO FOG REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. AS A
RESULT...REMOVED MORNING FOG WORDING FROM THE GRIDS AND ZONES.

FURTHERMORE...REGIONAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. LOWERED MORNING POPS AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO ADVECT WEST-SOUTHWEST FURTHER
SOUTH...STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...AND SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH NOW THROUGH 15Z. WILL MAINTAIN
MORNING FOG NORTH WITH T/TD SPREADS NEARING ZERO AS SKIES
CLEAR...AND SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES REPORTING FOG. WILL MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE DENSE FOG...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE SO DO NOT EXPECT THE DURATION OF THE FOG TO BE VERY
LONG.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS TODAY...WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE
LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF DO GENERATE 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
THINGS DRY...BUT COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS/DEVILS LAKE BASIN AREA.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WEDNESDAY THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 35-45. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 TO 45. SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW INCREASES
LATE TONIGHT FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE WEST IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG THE FIRST IMPULSE TO EJECT FROM OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DEVELOPING
AREAWIDE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE TAP WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT
RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY
TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

VFR CIGS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE AT KMOT-KISN THROUGH 14Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH

000
FXUS63 KBIS 221141
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ENOUGH GRADIENT FLOW HAS DEVELOPED TO MIX OUT MORNING FOG
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AS OF THE 11Z
OBS...THERE WAS NO FOG REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. AS A
RESULT...REMOVED MORNING FOG WORDING FROM THE GRIDS AND ZONES.

FURTHERMORE...REGIONAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. LOWERED MORNING POPS AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO ADVECT WEST-SOUTHWEST FURTHER
SOUTH...STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...AND SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH NOW THROUGH 15Z. WILL MAINTAIN
MORNING FOG NORTH WITH T/TD SPREADS NEARING ZERO AS SKIES
CLEAR...AND SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES REPORTING FOG. WILL MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE DENSE FOG...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE SO DO NOT EXPECT THE DURATION OF THE FOG TO BE VERY
LONG.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS TODAY...WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE
LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF DO GENERATE 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
THINGS DRY...BUT COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS/DEVILS LAKE BASIN AREA.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WEDNESDAY THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 35-45. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 TO 45. SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW INCREASES
LATE TONIGHT FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE WEST IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG THE FIRST IMPULSE TO EJECT FROM OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DEVELOPING
AREAWIDE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE TAP WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT
RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY
TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

VFR CIGS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE AT KMOT-KISN THROUGH 14Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH

000
FXUS63 KBIS 220843
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
343 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND COOL
WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO ADVECT WEST-SOUTHWEST FURTHER
SOUTH...STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH IS
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...AND SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH NOW THROUGH 15Z. WILL MAINTAIN
MORNING FOG NORTH WITH T/TD SPREADS NEARING ZERO AS SKIES
CLEAR...AND SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES REPORTING FOG. WILL MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE DENSE FOG...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE SO DO NOT EXPECT THE DURATION OF THE FOG TO BE VERY
LONG.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS TODAY...WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE
LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF DO GENERATE 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
THINGS DRY...BUT COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS/DEVILS LAKE BASIN AREA.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WEDNESDAY THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 35-45. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 TO 45. SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW INCREASES
LATE TONIGHT FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE WEST IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG THE FIRST IMPULSE TO EJECT FROM OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DEVELOPING
AREAWIDE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE TAP WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT
RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY
TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS AT KDIK-KBIS-KJMS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT KMOT-KISN. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AT KMOT AND POSSIBLY KISN
WHERE VISIBILITIES COULD FALL TO IFR OR BELOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD
EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09-14Z. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE SKC BY
15-18Z TODAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH

000
FXUS63 KBIS 220612
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
112 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS EARLY MORNING FORECAST
UPDATE. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST CENTRAL AND SOUTH...WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH NOW
THROUGH 15Z...AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL MAINTAIN FOG IN THE FORECAST
NORTH WITH T/TD SPREADS NEARING ZERO AT SOME LOCATIONS WHERE SKIES
HAVE CLEARED.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 853 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH THE WEST
LIKELY GETTING SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT AS WELL AS EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO PULL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
UPPED THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH FOR THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING. SO FAR DO NOT SEE A FIRM
TREND ON CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH YET. SO HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF CLEARING UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
PROBLEMS WITH FOG FORMATION NORTH UNTIL LATE. UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTRIBUTING TO LIGHT FOG SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

AT 6 PM CDT...THE CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ARE NOW FORMING. AFTER SUNSET THE EAST NORTHEAST FLOW OUT
OF CANADA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL
FURTHER ERODE THE CLOUDS. WITH MINOT STILL REPORTED A LIGHT SHOWER
ADDED SPRINKLES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA EXCLUDING THE NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES WHERE
CLEARING WILL DEFINITELY BE FOUND. ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF WILL
STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. WILL THE NORTH CLEARING BY MIDNIGHT...AND ABUNDANT
SURFACE MOISTURE PRESENT...AREAS OF FOG STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS LOOK GOOD AND DID NOT TOUCH THEM WITH THIS
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE END OF THE LONG DURATION
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE RAP THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA..AND FOLLOWED ITS LATEST 19 UTC
RUN FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH ADVECTS DRIER AIR
SOUTHWEST AND SCOURS OUT THE STRATUS. DID ADD A MENTION OF FOG TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE SKIES FIRST CLEAR TONIGHT
AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND SATURATION IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT RAINFALL.

A QUIET WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
AREA. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...USED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
GEM/GFS/NAM/ECMWF AND 15 UTC SREF FOR ALL FIELDS...WITH GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST...AND THE ESTABLISHED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEST COAST/ROCKIES...WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
PLAINS OF NORTH AMERICA. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA NOSES INTO THE DAKOTAS.

BY THURSDAY THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS THE
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/LEE OF THE ROCKIES SETS UP
A STRONGER SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
PLAINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES SETS UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THUS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE...WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS NOW AT KDIK-KBIS-KJMS...CLEAR SKIES AT KMOT...AND TRENDING
TOWARDS SKC AT KISN. MAY STILL SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS OF KDIK-KBIS-KJMS EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL TERMINALS WILL
BE SKC BY 15-18Z TODAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
06Z TAF PERIOD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR PINGREE AND
THE FORECAST POINTS OF TOWNER...BANTRY AND WESTHOPE ON THE SOURIS.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE WINTERING RIVER NEAR KARLSRUHE AND THE
WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY WHICH MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE IN
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HAVE HELD OFF ON A FLOOD WARNING FOR
NOW...AND WILL WATCH HOW THESE WATERWAYS RESPOND TO RUNOFF.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AYD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 220207
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
907 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH THE WEST
LIKELY GETTING SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT AS WELL AS EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO PULL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
UPPED THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH FOR THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING. SO FAR DO NOT SEE A FIRM
TREND ON CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH YET. SO HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF CLEARING UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
PROBLEMS WITH FOG FORMATION NORTH UNTIL LATE. UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTRIBUTING TO LIGHT FOG SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

AT 6 PM CDT...THE CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ARE NOW FORMING. AFTER SUNSET THE EAST NORTHEAST FLOW OUT
OF CANADA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL
FURTHER ERODE THE CLOUDS. WITH MINOT STILL REPORTED A LIGHT SHOWER
ADDED SPRINKLES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA EXCLUDING THE NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES WHERE
CLEARING WILL DEFINITELY BE FOUND. ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF WILL
STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. WILL THE NORTH CLEARING BY MIDNIGHT...AND ABUNDANT
SURFACE MOISTURE PRESENT...AREAS OF FOG STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS LOOK GOOD AND DID NOT TOUCH THEM WITH THIS
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE END OF THE LONG DURATION
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE RAP THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA..AND FOLLOWED ITS LATEST 19 UTC
RUN FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH ADVECTS DRIER AIR
SOUTHWEST AND SCOURS OUT THE STRATUS. DID ADD A MENTION OF FOG TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE SKIES FIRST CLEAR TONIGHT
AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND SATURATION IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT RAINFALL.

A QUIET WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
AREA. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...USED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
GEM/GFS/NAM/ECMWF AND 15 UTC SREF FOR ALL FIELDS...WITH GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST...AND THE ESTABLISHED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEST COAST/ROCKIES...WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
PLAINS OF NORTH AMERICA. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA NOSES INTO THE DAKOTAS.

BY THURSDAY THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS THE
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/LEE OF THE ROCKIES SETS UP
A STRONGER SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
PLAINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES SETS UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THUS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 853 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

CIRCULATION AROUND A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN MINNESOTA CAUSING LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/UPSLOPE COMPONENTS MANIFESTING ITSELF AS
LOWER CEILINGS INTO THE LOW MVFR TO IFR CATEGORY FROM KJMS-KBIS-
KDIK...WITH KDIK LIKELY INTO THE LOW IFR THROUGH 10Z. AFTER 10Z
SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR THEN VFR AFTER 12Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR PINGREE AND
THE FORECAST POINTS OF TOWNER...BANTRY AND WESTHOPE ON THE SOURIS.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE WINTERING RIVER NEAR KARLSRUHE AND THE
WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY WHICH MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE IN
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HAVE HELD OFF ON A FLOOD WARNING FOR
NOW...AND WILL WATCH HOW THESE WATERWAYS RESPOND TO RUNOFF.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 220003
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
703 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

AT 6 PM CDT...THE CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ARE NOW FORMING. AFTER SUNSET THE EAST NORTHEAST FLOW OUT
OF CANADA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL
FURTHER ERODE THE CLOUDS. WITH MINOT STILL REPORTED A LIGHT SHOWER
ADDED SPRINKLES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA EXCLUDING THE NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES WHERE
CLEARING WILL DEFINITELY BE FOUND. ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF WILL
STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. WILL THE NORTH CLEARING BY MIDNIGHT...AND ABUNDANT
SURFACE MOISTURE PRESENT...AREAS OF FOG STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS LOOK GOOD AND DID NOT TOUCH THEM WITH THIS
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE END OF THE LONG DURATION
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE RAP THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA..AND FOLLOWED ITS LATEST 19 UTC
RUN FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH ADVECTS DRIER AIR
SOUTHWEST AND SCOURS OUT THE STRATUS. DID ADD A MENTION OF FOG TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE SKIES FIRST CLEAR TONIGHT
AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND SATURATION IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT RAINFALL.

A QUIET WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
AREA. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...USED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
GEM/GFS/NAM/ECMWF AND 15 UTC SREF FOR ALL FIELDS...WITH GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST...AND THE ESTABLISHED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEST COAST/ROCKIES...WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
PLAINS OF NORTH AMERICA. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA NOSES INTO THE DAKOTAS.

BY THURSDAY THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS THE
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/LEE OF THE ROCKIES SETS UP
A STRONGER SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
PLAINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES SETS UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THUS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

AT 6 PM CDT...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
CONTINUED TO PULL MOIST AIR INTO NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE EAST. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM KJMS-KBIS-KDIK...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY EVENING AT KDIK. KISN-KMOT
WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KMOT WHERE ABUNDANT RAINFALL
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FOG FORMATION. VFR ALL TAF SITES AFTER 14Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR PINGREE AND
THE FORECAST POINTS OF TOWNER...BANTRY AND WESTHOPE ON THE SOURIS.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE WINTERING RIVER NEAR KARLSRUHE AND THE
WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY WHICH MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE IN
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HAVE HELD OFF ON A FLOOD WARNING FOR
NOW...AND WILL WATCH HOW THESE WATERWAYS RESPOND TO RUNOFF.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 212026
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
326 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE END OF THE LONG DURATION
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE RAP THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA..AND FOLLOWED ITS LATEST 19 UTC
RUN FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH ADVECTS DRIER AIR
SOUTHWEST AND SCOURS OUT THE STRATUS. DID ADD A MENTION OF FOG TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE SKIES FIRST CLEAR TONIGHT
AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND SATURATION IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT RAINFALL.

A QUIET WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
AREA. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...USED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
GEM/GFS/NAM/ECMWF AND 15 UTC SREF FOR ALL FIELDS...WITH GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST...AND THE ESTABLISHED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEST COAST/ROCKIES...WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
PLAINS OF NORTH AMERICA. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA NOSES INTO THE DAKOTAS.

BY THURSDAY THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS THE
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES/LEE OF THE ROCKIES SETS UP
A STRONGER SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
PLAINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES SETS UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THUS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MVFR STRATUS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
KMOT...KBIS...KJMS AND KDIK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A
CLEARING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
SUNSET...THE STRATUS DECK MAY LOWER TO IFR BEFORE CLEARING. KISN
SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THIS DECK FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT AT KMOT
AS SKIES CLEAR WITH RECENT RAINFALL...HOWEVER...IMPACTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND WILL CODE AS VCFG FOR NOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR PINGREE AND
THE FORECAST POINTS OF TOWNER...BANTRY AND WESTHOPE ON THE SOURIS.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE WINTERING RIVER NEAR KARLSRUHE AND THE
WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY WHICH MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE IN
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HAVE HELD OFF ON A FLOOD WARNING FOR
NOW...AND WILL WATCH HOW THESE WATERWAYS RESPOND TO RUNOFF.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...AYD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 211815
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
115 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO DECREASE SKY
COVER ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...FOLLOWING THE
17 UTC RAP FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH HAS HANDLED THE
CLOUD SHIELD WELL SO FAR TODAY. ALSO...REMOVED THE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY FOR US HIGHWAY 2 AND NORTH...AND REDUCED
POPS TO CHANCE FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS THE
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PROPAGATES INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 00 UTC
GEM/ECMWF...09 UTC SREF...06 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC NAM UTILIZED FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

GRADIENT FLOW HAS DECREASED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A SURFACE
LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MODIFIED HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE REGION.

CURRENTLY...LARGE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CENTERED OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTICITY MAXIMUMS/CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ROTATING AROUND/WITHIN
THE LARGE LOW. RAIN IS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH MOST OBS REPORTING LIGHT
RAIN RATHER THAN MODERATE OR HEAVY. PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
DIMINISHING OVER MY EAST BUT AM STILL SEEING GUSTY WINDS AT ROLLA
AND RUGBY TO OVER 40 MPH. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY AS
IS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND NORTH IF I94 WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

100KT JET STREAK SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW FROM EASTERN KANSAS
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...ALONG WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS TODAY...WILL ALL HELP TO NUDGE THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SEVERAL MORE EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL STILL BRING LIGHT RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SEE CHANCES DECREASE NORTH LATER
TODAY...WITH THIS TREND (DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH) CONTINUING TONIGHT. WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL NOW EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM
SYSTEM...WE OPTED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH WITH FURTHER
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CRESTS ACROSS THE
REGION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
PERIODIC ENERGY TRAVERSING THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERATE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY...CONTINUED TO BROAD
BRUSH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY AND TARGET WHICH DAY WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...IF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPS AT ALL. AS A RESULT...SIDED WITH THE SPC AND THINK
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
KMOT...KBIS...KJMS AND KDIK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A
CLEARING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. KISN SHOULD REMAIN
OUTSIDE OF THIS DECK FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT AT KMOT AS SKIES CLEAR
WITH RECENT RAINFALL...HOWEVER...IMPACTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME AND WILL CODE AS VCFG FOR NOW.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 211452
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
952 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS THE
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PROPAGATES INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 00 UTC
GEM/ECMWF...09 UTC SREF...06 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC NAM UTILIZED FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

GRADIENT FLOW HAS DECREASED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A SURFACE
LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MODIFIED HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE REGION.

CURRENTLY...LARGE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CENTERED OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTICITY MAXIMUMS/CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ROTATING AROUND/WITHIN
THE LARGE LOW. RAIN IS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH MOST OBS REPORTING LIGHT
RAIN RATHER THAN MODERATE OR HEAVY. PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
DIMINISHING OVER MY EAST BUT AM STILL SEEING GUSTY WINDS AT ROLLA
AND RUGBY TO OVER 40 MPH. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY AS
IS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND NORTH IF I94 WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

100KT JET STREAK SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW FROM EASTERN KANSAS
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...ALONG WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS TODAY...WILL ALL HELP TO NUDGE THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SEVERAL MORE EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL STILL BRING LIGHT RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SEE CHANCES DECREASE NORTH LATER
TODAY...WITH THIS TREND (DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH) CONTINUING TONIGHT. WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL NOW EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM
SYSTEM...WE OPTED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH WITH FURTHER
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CRESTS ACROSS THE
REGION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
PERIODIC ENERGY TRAVERSING THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERATE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY...CONTINUED TO BROAD
BRUSH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY AND TARGET WHICH DAY WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...IF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPS AT ALL. AS A RESULT...SIDED WITH THE SPC AND THINK
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

LIGHT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL TERMINALS TUESDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED
NORTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER 06Z FOR KMOT-KISN...ALONG WITH
DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ALL TERMINALS. WIND GUSTS OF 30 KTS
STILL POSSIBLE AT KJMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 211140
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

GRADIENT FLOW HAS DECREASED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A SURFACE
LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MODIFIED HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE REGION.

CURRENTLY...LARGE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CENTERED OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTICITY MAXIMUMS/CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ROTATING AROUND/WITHIN
THE LARGE LOW. RAIN IS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH MOST OBS REPORTING LIGHT
RAIN RATHER THAN MODERATE OR HEAVY. PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
DIMINISHING OVER MY EAST BUT AM STILL SEEING GUSTY WINDS AT ROLLA
AND RUGBY TO OVER 40 MPH. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY AS
IS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND NORTH IF I94 WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

100KT JET STREAK SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW FROM EASTERN KANSAS
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...ALONG WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS TODAY...WILL ALL HELP TO NUDGE THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SEVERAL MORE EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL STILL BRING LIGHT RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SEE CHANCES DECREASE NORTH LATER
TODAY...WITH THIS TREND (DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH) CONTINUING TONIGHT. WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL NOW EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM
SYSTEM...WE OPTED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH WITH FURTHER
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CRESTS ACROSS THE
REGION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
PERIODIC ENERGY TRAVERSING THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERATE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY...CONTINUED TO BROAD
BRUSH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY AND TARGET WHICH DAY WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...IF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPS AT ALL. AS A RESULT...SIDED WITH THE SPC AND THINK
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL
TERMINALS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED NORTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER 06Z FOR
KMOT-KISN...ALONG WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ALL TERMINALS.
WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS STILL POSSIBLE AT KJMS THROUGH THIS
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH

000
FXUS63 KBIS 210914
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE REGION.

CURRENTLY...LARGE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CENTERED OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTICITY MAXIMUMS/CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ROTATING AROUND/WITHIN
THE LARGE LOW. RAIN IS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH MOST OBS REPORTING LIGHT
RAIN RATHER THAN MODERATE OR HEAVY. PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
DIMINISHING OVER MY EAST BUT AM STILL SEEING GUSTY WINDS AT ROLLA
AND RUGBY TO OVER 40 MPH. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY AS
IS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND NORTH IF I94 WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

100KT JET STREAK SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW FROM EASTERN KANSAS
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...ALONG WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS TODAY...WILL ALL HELP TO NUDGE THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SEVERAL MORE EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL STILL BRING LIGHT RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SEE CHANCES DECREASE NORTH LATER
TODAY...WITH THIS TREND (DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH) CONTINUING TONIGHT. WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL NOW EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM
SYSTEM...WE OPTED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH WITH FURTHER
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CRESTS ACROSS THE
REGION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
PERIODIC ENERGY TRAVERSING THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERATE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY...CONTINUED TO BROAD
BRUSH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY AND TARGET WHICH DAY WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...IF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPS AT ALL. AS A RESULT...SIDED WITH THE SPC AND THINK
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL
TERMINALS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED NORTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER 06Z FOR
KMOT-KISN...ALONG WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ALL TERMINALS.
WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS STILL POSSIBLE AT KJMS THROUGH THIS
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-
022-023-025-036-037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH