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000
FXUS63 KBIS 021648
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1148 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SO HAVE TAKEN OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 817 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL PUSHING
INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS TO PRODUCE
A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER SO FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE PUT MENTION OF
THAT IN. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS SOME WITH THE CURRENT POSITION OF
THE PRECIPITATION...PUSHING IT OFF TOWARDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST...NORTH
OF ND HIGHWAY 200 THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
HRRR (05 UTC) CONTINUES TO CAPTURE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS QUITE
WELL AND SHOWS THE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER APPEARS RATHER
BENIGN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE PROPAGATE THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE COMING ONSHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TODAY
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO YIELD PWATS OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ABOUT TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE FORCING AND ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATEST. HOWEVER...THE RATHER PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE WAVE WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT. ANY WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH WITH A DRY SLOT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH A
BREEZY AND COOL DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
THEREAFTER....NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SUPPORTING CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
MODERATION POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TRANSITION TO QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 021648
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1148 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SO HAVE TAKEN OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 817 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL PUSHING
INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS TO PRODUCE
A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER SO FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE PUT MENTION OF
THAT IN. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS SOME WITH THE CURRENT POSITION OF
THE PRECIPITATION...PUSHING IT OFF TOWARDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST...NORTH
OF ND HIGHWAY 200 THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
HRRR (05 UTC) CONTINUES TO CAPTURE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS QUITE
WELL AND SHOWS THE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER APPEARS RATHER
BENIGN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE PROPAGATE THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE COMING ONSHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TODAY
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO YIELD PWATS OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ABOUT TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE FORCING AND ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATEST. HOWEVER...THE RATHER PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE WAVE WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT. ANY WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH WITH A DRY SLOT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH A
BREEZY AND COOL DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
THEREAFTER....NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SUPPORTING CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
MODERATION POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TRANSITION TO QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 021325
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
825 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL PUSHING
INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS TO PRODUCE
A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER SO FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE PUT MENTION OF
THAT IN. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS SOME WITH THE CURRENT POSITION OF
THE PRECIPITATION...PUSHING IT OFF TOWARDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST...NORTH
OF ND HIGHWAY 200 THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
HRRR (05 UTC) CONTINUES TO CAPTURE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS QUITE
WELL AND SHOWS THE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER APPEARS RATHER
BENIGN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE PROPAGATE THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE COMING ONSHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TODAY
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO YIELD PWATS OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ABOUT TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE FORCING AND ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATEST. HOWEVER...THE RATHER PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE WAVE WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT. ANY WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH WITH A DRY SLOT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH A
BREEZY AND COOL DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
THEREAFTER....NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SUPPORTING CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
MODERATION POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TRANSITION TO QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH PREDOMINATELY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 021325
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
825 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL PUSHING
INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS TO PRODUCE
A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER SO FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE PUT MENTION OF
THAT IN. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS SOME WITH THE CURRENT POSITION OF
THE PRECIPITATION...PUSHING IT OFF TOWARDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST...NORTH
OF ND HIGHWAY 200 THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
HRRR (05 UTC) CONTINUES TO CAPTURE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS QUITE
WELL AND SHOWS THE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER APPEARS RATHER
BENIGN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE PROPAGATE THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE COMING ONSHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TODAY
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO YIELD PWATS OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ABOUT TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE FORCING AND ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATEST. HOWEVER...THE RATHER PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE WAVE WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT. ANY WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH WITH A DRY SLOT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH A
BREEZY AND COOL DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
THEREAFTER....NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SUPPORTING CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
MODERATION POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TRANSITION TO QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH PREDOMINATELY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 021134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST...NORTH
OF ND HIGHWAY 200 THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
HRRR (05 UTC) CONTINUES TO CAPTURE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS QUITE
WELL AND SHOWS THE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER APPEARS RATHER
BENIGN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE PROPAGATE THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE COMING ONSHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TODAY
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO YIELD PWATS OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ABOUT TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE FORCING AND ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATEST. HOWEVER...THE RATHER PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE WAVE WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT. ANY WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH WITH A DRY SLOT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH A
BREEZY AND COOL DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
THEREAFTER....NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SUPPORTING CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
MODERATION POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TRANSITION TO QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH PREDOMINATELY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 021134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST...NORTH
OF ND HIGHWAY 200 THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
HRRR (05 UTC) CONTINUES TO CAPTURE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS QUITE
WELL AND SHOWS THE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER APPEARS RATHER
BENIGN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE PROPAGATE THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE COMING ONSHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TODAY
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO YIELD PWATS OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ABOUT TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE FORCING AND ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATEST. HOWEVER...THE RATHER PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE WAVE WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT. ANY WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH WITH A DRY SLOT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH A
BREEZY AND COOL DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
THEREAFTER....NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SUPPORTING CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
MODERATION POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TRANSITION TO QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH PREDOMINATELY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 020809
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
309 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
HRRR (05 UTC) CONTINUES TO CAPTURE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS QUITE
WELL AND SHOWS THE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER APPEARS RATHER
BENIGN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE PROPAGATE THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE COMING ONSHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TODAY
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO YIELD PWATS OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ABOUT TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE FORCING AND ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATEST. HOWEVER...THE RATHER PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE WAVE WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT. ANY WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH WITH A DRY SLOT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH A
BREEZY AND COOL DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
THEREAFTER....NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SUPPORTING CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
MODERATION POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TRANSITION TO QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH PREDOMINATELY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AJ










000
FXUS63 KBIS 020809
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
309 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
HRRR (05 UTC) CONTINUES TO CAPTURE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS QUITE
WELL AND SHOWS THE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER APPEARS RATHER
BENIGN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE PROPAGATE THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE COMING ONSHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TODAY
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO YIELD PWATS OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ABOUT TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE FORCING AND ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATEST. HOWEVER...THE RATHER PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE WAVE WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT. ANY WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH WITH A DRY SLOT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH A
BREEZY AND COOL DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
THEREAFTER....NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SUPPORTING CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
MODERATION POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TRANSITION TO QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH PREDOMINATELY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AJ









000
FXUS63 KBIS 020525
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR (03 UTC) PICKS UP ON
THE CANADIAN ACTIVITY AND BRINGS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. UPDATED THE PRECIP
FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS.

LATEST TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS WERE NEARING OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOWS
ALREADY. WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF DIURNAL COOLING AHEAD...LOWERED THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW MORE DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER
THE LAST HOUR WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED EVENING
POPS FROM THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. ALSO ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN
PLACE...THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND SUB-SEVERE. IT
SHOULD END BY 03Z THIS EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MESOSCALE MODELS PROG A WEAK WAVE AND
ATTENDANT LIGHT QPF TO SKIRT ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER COUNTIES.
AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD BE BRIEF
AND REMAIN SUB-SEVERE IF IT EVEN MATERIALIZES.

OTHERWISE...JUST MADE A FEW COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH HIGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WORKING
TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. MODEST SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW
NOW MAKING ITS WAY FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
STARTING TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ON THE TAME SIDE WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING WITH DIMINISHING INSOLATION...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
ANOTHER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE FAR NORTH
AS AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH. OTHERWISE
A QUIET DAY IS ON TAP AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE STARTS TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA. SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE EXTENDED MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED/ELONGATED FROM 140W/60N
TO 150W/55N...TO SHIFT INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILTED AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE TIME PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH AROUND 0.65 INCHES FORECAST FROM MOHALL TO STANLEY...AND FROM
MINOT TO NEAR GARRISON. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY FOR KMOT/KBIS/KJMS...AND A WEAKER CAP
IN PLACE AT KISN/KDIK. HAVE CONFINED POPS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. A POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING AND SLIDING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. SPC HAS A SEE TEXT WHICH INCLUDES NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY
INHIBIT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER
STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR OF 55KT TO 60KT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

STRONG COOLING AS THE H85 FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...WITH TEMPS COOLING
FROM AROUND +20C WEDNESDAY EVENING...TO +6C THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT
THE GREATEST WARMTH TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE REPLACED WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
60S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL ALSO
MATERIALIZE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

THEREAFTER...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW
MODERATING TREND AS BROAD CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS TRANSITIONS TO BROAD RIDGING SUNDAY AND HIGHS WARMING
INTO THE MID 70S. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN BY
MONDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH PREDOMINATELY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 020525
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR (03 UTC) PICKS UP ON
THE CANADIAN ACTIVITY AND BRINGS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. UPDATED THE PRECIP
FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS.

LATEST TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS WERE NEARING OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOWS
ALREADY. WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF DIURNAL COOLING AHEAD...LOWERED THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW MORE DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER
THE LAST HOUR WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED EVENING
POPS FROM THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. ALSO ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN
PLACE...THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND SUB-SEVERE. IT
SHOULD END BY 03Z THIS EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MESOSCALE MODELS PROG A WEAK WAVE AND
ATTENDANT LIGHT QPF TO SKIRT ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER COUNTIES.
AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD BE BRIEF
AND REMAIN SUB-SEVERE IF IT EVEN MATERIALIZES.

OTHERWISE...JUST MADE A FEW COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH HIGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WORKING
TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. MODEST SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW
NOW MAKING ITS WAY FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
STARTING TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ON THE TAME SIDE WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING WITH DIMINISHING INSOLATION...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
ANOTHER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE FAR NORTH
AS AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH. OTHERWISE
A QUIET DAY IS ON TAP AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE STARTS TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA. SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE EXTENDED MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED/ELONGATED FROM 140W/60N
TO 150W/55N...TO SHIFT INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILTED AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE TIME PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH AROUND 0.65 INCHES FORECAST FROM MOHALL TO STANLEY...AND FROM
MINOT TO NEAR GARRISON. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY FOR KMOT/KBIS/KJMS...AND A WEAKER CAP
IN PLACE AT KISN/KDIK. HAVE CONFINED POPS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. A POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING AND SLIDING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. SPC HAS A SEE TEXT WHICH INCLUDES NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY
INHIBIT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER
STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR OF 55KT TO 60KT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

STRONG COOLING AS THE H85 FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...WITH TEMPS COOLING
FROM AROUND +20C WEDNESDAY EVENING...TO +6C THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT
THE GREATEST WARMTH TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE REPLACED WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
60S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL ALSO
MATERIALIZE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

THEREAFTER...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW
MODERATING TREND AS BROAD CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS TRANSITIONS TO BROAD RIDGING SUNDAY AND HIGHS WARMING
INTO THE MID 70S. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN BY
MONDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH PREDOMINATELY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ








000
FXUS63 KBIS 020238
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER
THE LAST HOUR WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED EVENING
POPS FROM THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. ALSO ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN
PLACE...THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND SUB-SEVERE. IT
SHOULD END BY 03Z THIS EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MESOSCALE MODELS PROG A WEAK WAVE AND
ATTENDANT LIGHT QPF TO SKIRT ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER COUNTIES.
AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD BE BRIEF
AND REMAIN SUB-SEVERE IF IT EVEN MATERIALIZES.

OTHERWISE...JUST MADE A FEW COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH HIGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WORKING
TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. MODEST SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW
NOW MAKING ITS WAY FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
STARTING TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ON THE TAME SIDE WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING WITH DIMINISHING INSOLATION...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
ANOTHER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE FAR NORTH
AS AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH. OTHERWISE
A QUIET DAY IS ON TAP AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE STARTS TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA. SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE EXTENDED MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED/ELONGATED FROM 140W/60N
TO 150W/55N...TO SHIFT INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILTED AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE TIME PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH AROUND 0.65 INCHES FORECAST FROM MOHALL TO STANLEY...AND FROM
MINOT TO NEAR GARRISON. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY FOR KMOT/KBIS/KJMS...AND A WEAKER CAP
IN PLACE AT KISN/KDIK. HAVE CONFINED POPS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. A POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING AND SLIDING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. SPC HAS A SEE TEXT WHICH INCLUDES NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY
INHIBIT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER
STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR OF 55KT TO 60KT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

STRONG COOLING AS THE H85 FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...WITH TEMPS COOLING
FROM AROUND +20C WEDNESDAY EVENING...TO +6C THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT
THE GREATEST WARMTH TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE REPLACED WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
60S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL ALSO
MATERIALIZE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

THEREAFTER...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW
MODERATING TREND AS BROAD CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS TRANSITIONS TO BROAD RIDGING SUNDAY AND HIGHS WARMING
INTO THE MID 70S. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN BY
MONDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 03Z. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOW COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 020238
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER
THE LAST HOUR WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED EVENING
POPS FROM THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. ALSO ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN
PLACE...THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND SUB-SEVERE. IT
SHOULD END BY 03Z THIS EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MESOSCALE MODELS PROG A WEAK WAVE AND
ATTENDANT LIGHT QPF TO SKIRT ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER COUNTIES.
AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD BE BRIEF
AND REMAIN SUB-SEVERE IF IT EVEN MATERIALIZES.

OTHERWISE...JUST MADE A FEW COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH HIGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WORKING
TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. MODEST SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW
NOW MAKING ITS WAY FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
STARTING TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ON THE TAME SIDE WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING WITH DIMINISHING INSOLATION...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
ANOTHER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE FAR NORTH
AS AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH. OTHERWISE
A QUIET DAY IS ON TAP AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE STARTS TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA. SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE EXTENDED MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED/ELONGATED FROM 140W/60N
TO 150W/55N...TO SHIFT INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILTED AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE TIME PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH AROUND 0.65 INCHES FORECAST FROM MOHALL TO STANLEY...AND FROM
MINOT TO NEAR GARRISON. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY FOR KMOT/KBIS/KJMS...AND A WEAKER CAP
IN PLACE AT KISN/KDIK. HAVE CONFINED POPS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. A POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING AND SLIDING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. SPC HAS A SEE TEXT WHICH INCLUDES NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY
INHIBIT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER
STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR OF 55KT TO 60KT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

STRONG COOLING AS THE H85 FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...WITH TEMPS COOLING
FROM AROUND +20C WEDNESDAY EVENING...TO +6C THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT
THE GREATEST WARMTH TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE REPLACED WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
60S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL ALSO
MATERIALIZE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

THEREAFTER...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW
MODERATING TREND AS BROAD CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS TRANSITIONS TO BROAD RIDGING SUNDAY AND HIGHS WARMING
INTO THE MID 70S. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN BY
MONDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 03Z. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOW COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 012304
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
604 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN
PLACE...THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND SUB-SEVERE. IT
SHOULD END BY 03Z THIS EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MESOSCALE MODELS PROG A WEAK WAVE AND
ATTENDANT LIGHT QPF TO SKIRT ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER COUNTIES.
AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD BE BRIEF
AND REMAIN SUB-SEVERE IF IT EVEN MATERIALIZES.

OTHERWISE...JUST MADE A FEW COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH HIGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WORKING
TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. MODEST SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW
NOW MAKING ITS WAY FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
STARTING TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ON THE TAME SIDE WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING WITH DIMINISHING INSOLATION...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
ANOTHER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE FAR NORTH
AS AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH. OTHERWISE
A QUIET DAY IS ON TAP AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE STARTS TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA. SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE EXTENDED MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED/ELONGATED FROM 140W/60N
TO 150W/55N...TO SHIFT INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILTED AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE TIME PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH AROUND 0.65 INCHES FORECAST FROM MOHALL TO STANLEY...AND FROM
MINOT TO NEAR GARRISON. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY FOR KMOT/KBIS/KJMS...AND A WEAKER CAP
IN PLACE AT KISN/KDIK. HAVE CONFINED POPS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. A POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING AND SLIDING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. SPC HAS A SEE TEXT WHICH INCLUDES NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY
INHIBIT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER
STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR OF 55KT TO 60KT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

STRONG COOLING AS THE H85 FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...WITH TEMPS COOLING
FROM AROUND +20C WEDNESDAY EVENING...TO +6C THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT
THE GREATEST WARMTH TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE REPLACED WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
60S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL ALSO
MATERIALIZE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

THEREAFTER...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW
MODERATING TREND AS BROAD CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS TRANSITIONS TO BROAD RIDGING SUNDAY AND HIGHS WARMING
INTO THE MID 70S. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN BY
MONDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 03Z. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOW COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 012304
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
604 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN
PLACE...THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND SUB-SEVERE. IT
SHOULD END BY 03Z THIS EVENING...IF NOT SOONER.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MESOSCALE MODELS PROG A WEAK WAVE AND
ATTENDANT LIGHT QPF TO SKIRT ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER COUNTIES.
AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD BE BRIEF
AND REMAIN SUB-SEVERE IF IT EVEN MATERIALIZES.

OTHERWISE...JUST MADE A FEW COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH HIGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WORKING
TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. MODEST SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW
NOW MAKING ITS WAY FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
STARTING TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ON THE TAME SIDE WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING WITH DIMINISHING INSOLATION...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
ANOTHER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE FAR NORTH
AS AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH. OTHERWISE
A QUIET DAY IS ON TAP AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE STARTS TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA. SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE EXTENDED MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED/ELONGATED FROM 140W/60N
TO 150W/55N...TO SHIFT INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILTED AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE TIME PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH AROUND 0.65 INCHES FORECAST FROM MOHALL TO STANLEY...AND FROM
MINOT TO NEAR GARRISON. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY FOR KMOT/KBIS/KJMS...AND A WEAKER CAP
IN PLACE AT KISN/KDIK. HAVE CONFINED POPS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. A POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING AND SLIDING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. SPC HAS A SEE TEXT WHICH INCLUDES NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY
INHIBIT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER
STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR OF 55KT TO 60KT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

STRONG COOLING AS THE H85 FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...WITH TEMPS COOLING
FROM AROUND +20C WEDNESDAY EVENING...TO +6C THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT
THE GREATEST WARMTH TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE REPLACED WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
60S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL ALSO
MATERIALIZE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

THEREAFTER...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW
MODERATING TREND AS BROAD CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS TRANSITIONS TO BROAD RIDGING SUNDAY AND HIGHS WARMING
INTO THE MID 70S. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN BY
MONDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 03Z. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOW COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 011947
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
247 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH HIGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WORKING
TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. MODEST SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW
NOW MAKING ITS WAY FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
STARTING TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ON THE TAME SIDE WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING WITH DIMINISHING INSOLATION...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
ANOTHER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH.

ON TUESDAY...A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE FAR NORTH
AS AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH. OTHERWISE
A QUIET DAY IS ON TAP AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE STARTS TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA. SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE EXTENDED MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED/ELONGATED FROM 140W/60N
TO 150W/55N...TO SHIFT INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILTED AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE TIME PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL APPEARS TO OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH AROUND 0.65 INCHES FORECAST FROM MOHALL TO STANLEY...AND FROM
MINOT TO NEAR GARRISON. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY FOR KMOT/KBIS/KJMS...AND A WEAKER CAP
IN PLACE AT KISN/KDIK. HAVE CONFINED POPS TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. A POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING AND SLIDING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY. SPC HAS A SEE TEXT WHICH INCLUDES NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY
INHIBIT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER
STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR OF 55KT TO 60KT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

STRONG COOLING AS THE H85 FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...WITH TEMPS COOLING
FROM AROUND +20C WEDNESDAY EVENING...TO +6C THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT
THE GREATEST WARMTH TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE REPLACED WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
60S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL ALSO
MATERIALIZE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

THEREAFTER...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW
MODERATING TREND AS BROAD CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS TRANSITIONS TO BROAD RIDGING SUNDAY AND HIGHS WARMING
INTO THE MID 70S. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN BY
MONDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVE...THOUGH WILL
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE LOW COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS










000
FXUS63 KBIS 011735
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SOME SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP AND PUSH EAST OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH THE NEXT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. GOING FORECASTS HANDLES THIS WELL SO CHANGES FOR UPDATE
ARE MINIMAL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COUPLE SPOTS OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...WITH
ONE UP IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE OTHER DOWN IN THE
SOUTHWEST. FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE PUSHING EASTERLY. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE LOW SIDE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

RADAR LOOPS SHOW A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL MOVING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT WEATHER WAS DRY. WILL
TRIM THE VERY SHORT TERM POPS BACK THROUGH 10 AM CDT SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL. IT MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS OF SUN TO
INITIATE SOME INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A RATHER PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STATES THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH CONSISTS OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA AND A SMALLER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION OF THE PARENT
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES. ALL OF THE MAJOR MODELS (00 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/NAM/SREF ETC.) PAINT SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE BRIEF DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
BUT...ODDS ARE LOW THAT ANY ONE PARTICULAR LOCATION WILL SEE
ANYTHING. THEREFORE...WENT WITH A BROAD SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A COOL DAY IS
ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EJECTING EAST
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LEAVING THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S
FOR THE COOLER DAYS OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF PAINTS
THE MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS JUST BRUSHES
THE NORTH. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE GAVE SOME LIKELY POPS NORTH WITH
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SOUTH. THIS LOOKS OK AND APPEARS TO
BE A BLEND OF THE DRYER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF. AFTER THIS...MODELS
TREND TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH A CUTOFF LOW FORMING OFF THE
WEST COAST RESULTING IN A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA (CONTAINING THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY)
AND A MORE DOCILE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A QUIET REGION OF WEAK
SUBSIDENCE AS THE FLOWS CONVERGE DOWNSTREAM OF THE REGION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVE...THOUGH WILL
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE LOW COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 011735
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SOME SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP AND PUSH EAST OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH THE NEXT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. GOING FORECASTS HANDLES THIS WELL SO CHANGES FOR UPDATE
ARE MINIMAL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COUPLE SPOTS OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...WITH
ONE UP IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE OTHER DOWN IN THE
SOUTHWEST. FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE PUSHING EASTERLY. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE LOW SIDE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

RADAR LOOPS SHOW A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL MOVING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT WEATHER WAS DRY. WILL
TRIM THE VERY SHORT TERM POPS BACK THROUGH 10 AM CDT SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL. IT MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS OF SUN TO
INITIATE SOME INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A RATHER PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STATES THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH CONSISTS OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA AND A SMALLER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION OF THE PARENT
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES. ALL OF THE MAJOR MODELS (00 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/NAM/SREF ETC.) PAINT SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE BRIEF DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
BUT...ODDS ARE LOW THAT ANY ONE PARTICULAR LOCATION WILL SEE
ANYTHING. THEREFORE...WENT WITH A BROAD SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A COOL DAY IS
ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EJECTING EAST
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LEAVING THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S
FOR THE COOLER DAYS OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF PAINTS
THE MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS JUST BRUSHES
THE NORTH. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE GAVE SOME LIKELY POPS NORTH WITH
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SOUTH. THIS LOOKS OK AND APPEARS TO
BE A BLEND OF THE DRYER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF. AFTER THIS...MODELS
TREND TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH A CUTOFF LOW FORMING OFF THE
WEST COAST RESULTING IN A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA (CONTAINING THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY)
AND A MORE DOCILE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A QUIET REGION OF WEAK
SUBSIDENCE AS THE FLOWS CONVERGE DOWNSTREAM OF THE REGION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVE...THOUGH WILL
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE LOW COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 011416
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
916 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COUPLE SPOTS OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...WITH
ONE UP IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE OTHER DOWN IN THE
SOUTHWEST. FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE PUSHING EASTERLY. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE LOW SIDE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

RADAR LOOPS SHOW A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL MOVING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT WEATHER WAS DRY. WILL
TRIM THE VERY SHORT TERM POPS BACK THROUGH 10 AM CDT SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL. IT MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS OF SUN TO
INITIATE SOME INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A RATHER PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STATES THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH CONSISTS OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA AND A SMALLER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION OF THE PARENT
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES. ALL OF THE MAJOR MODELS (00 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/NAM/SREF ETC.) PAINT SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE BRIEF DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
BUT...ODDS ARE LOW THAT ANY ONE PARTICULAR LOCATION WILL SEE
ANYTHING. THEREFORE...WENT WITH A BROAD SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A COOL DAY IS
ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EJECTING EAST
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LEAVING THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S
FOR THE COOLER DAYS OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF PAINTS
THE MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS JUST BRUSHES
THE NORTH. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE GAVE SOME LIKELY POPS NORTH WITH
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SOUTH. THIS LOOKS OK AND APPEARS TO
BE A BLEND OF THE DRYER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF. AFTER THIS...MODELS
TREND TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH A CUTOFF LOW FORMING OFF THE
WEST COAST RESULTING IN A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA (CONTAINING THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY)
AND A MORE DOCILE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A QUIET REGION OF WEAK
SUBSIDENCE AS THE FLOWS CONVERGE DOWNSTREAM OF THE REGION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY IMPACTS AT
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 011416
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
916 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COUPLE SPOTS OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...WITH
ONE UP IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE OTHER DOWN IN THE
SOUTHWEST. FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE PUSHING EASTERLY. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ON
THE LOW SIDE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

RADAR LOOPS SHOW A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL MOVING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT WEATHER WAS DRY. WILL
TRIM THE VERY SHORT TERM POPS BACK THROUGH 10 AM CDT SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL. IT MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS OF SUN TO
INITIATE SOME INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A RATHER PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STATES THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH CONSISTS OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA AND A SMALLER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION OF THE PARENT
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES. ALL OF THE MAJOR MODELS (00 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/NAM/SREF ETC.) PAINT SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE BRIEF DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
BUT...ODDS ARE LOW THAT ANY ONE PARTICULAR LOCATION WILL SEE
ANYTHING. THEREFORE...WENT WITH A BROAD SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A COOL DAY IS
ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EJECTING EAST
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LEAVING THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S
FOR THE COOLER DAYS OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF PAINTS
THE MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS JUST BRUSHES
THE NORTH. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE GAVE SOME LIKELY POPS NORTH WITH
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SOUTH. THIS LOOKS OK AND APPEARS TO
BE A BLEND OF THE DRYER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF. AFTER THIS...MODELS
TREND TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH A CUTOFF LOW FORMING OFF THE
WEST COAST RESULTING IN A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA (CONTAINING THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY)
AND A MORE DOCILE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A QUIET REGION OF WEAK
SUBSIDENCE AS THE FLOWS CONVERGE DOWNSTREAM OF THE REGION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY IMPACTS AT
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/AJ








000
FXUS63 KBIS 011153
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
653 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

RADAR LOOPS SHOW A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL MOVING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT WEATHER WAS DRY. WILL
TRIM THE VERY SHORT TERM POPS BACK THROUGH 10 AM CDT SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL. IT MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS OF SUN TO
INITIATE SOME INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A RATHER PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STATES THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH CONSISTS OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA AND A SMALLER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION OF THE PARENT
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES. ALL OF THE MAJOR MODELS (00 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/NAM/SREF ETC.) PAINT SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE BRIEF DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
BUT...ODDS ARE LOW THAT ANY ONE PARTICULAR LOCATION WILL SEE
ANYTHING. THEREFORE...WENT WITH A BROAD SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A COOL DAY IS
ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EJECTING EAST
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LEAVING THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S
FOR THE COOLER DAYS OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF PAINTS
THE MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS JUST BRUSHES
THE NORTH. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE GAVE SOME LIKELY POPS NORTH WITH
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SOUTH. THIS LOOKS OK AND APPEARS TO
BE A BLEND OF THE DRYER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF. AFTER THIS...MODELS
TREND TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH A CUTOFF LOW FORMING OFF THE
WEST COAST RESULTING IN A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA (CONTAINING THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY)
AND A MORE DOCILE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A QUIET REGION OF WEAK
SUBSIDENCE AS THE FLOWS CONVERGE DOWNSTREAM OF THE REGION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY IMPACTS AT
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 011153
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
653 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

RADAR LOOPS SHOW A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL MOVING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT WEATHER WAS DRY. WILL
TRIM THE VERY SHORT TERM POPS BACK THROUGH 10 AM CDT SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL. IT MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS OF SUN TO
INITIATE SOME INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A RATHER PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STATES THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH CONSISTS OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA AND A SMALLER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION OF THE PARENT
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES. ALL OF THE MAJOR MODELS (00 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/NAM/SREF ETC.) PAINT SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE BRIEF DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
BUT...ODDS ARE LOW THAT ANY ONE PARTICULAR LOCATION WILL SEE
ANYTHING. THEREFORE...WENT WITH A BROAD SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A COOL DAY IS
ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EJECTING EAST
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LEAVING THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S
FOR THE COOLER DAYS OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF PAINTS
THE MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS JUST BRUSHES
THE NORTH. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE GAVE SOME LIKELY POPS NORTH WITH
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SOUTH. THIS LOOKS OK AND APPEARS TO
BE A BLEND OF THE DRYER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF. AFTER THIS...MODELS
TREND TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH A CUTOFF LOW FORMING OFF THE
WEST COAST RESULTING IN A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA (CONTAINING THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY)
AND A MORE DOCILE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A QUIET REGION OF WEAK
SUBSIDENCE AS THE FLOWS CONVERGE DOWNSTREAM OF THE REGION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY IMPACTS AT
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/AJ








000
FXUS63 KBIS 010809
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
309 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A RATHER PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STATES THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH CONSISTS OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA AND A SMALLER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION OF THE PARENT
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES. ALL OF THE MAJOR MODELS (00 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/NAM/SREF ETC.) PAINT SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE BRIEF DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
BUT...ODDS ARE LOW THAT ANY ONE PARTICULAR LOCATION WILL SEE
ANYTHING. THEREFORE...WENT WITH A BROAD SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A COOL DAY IS
ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EJECTING EAST
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LEAVING THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S
FOR THE COOLER DAYS OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF PAINTS
THE MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS JUST BRUSHES
THE NORTH. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE GAVE SOME LIKELY POPS NORTH WITH
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SOUTH. THIS LOOKS OK AND APPEARS TO
BE A BLEND OF THE DRYER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF. AFTER THIS...MODELS
TREND TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH A CUTOFF LOW FORMING OFF THE
WEST COAST RESULTING IN A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA (CONTAINING THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY)
AND A MORE DOCILE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A QUIET REGION OF WEAK
SUBSIDENCE AS THE FLOWS CONVERGE DOWNSTREAM OF THE REGION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY IMPACTS AT
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ









000
FXUS63 KBIS 010809
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
309 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A RATHER PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STATES THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH CONSISTS OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA AND A SMALLER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION OF THE PARENT
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES. ALL OF THE MAJOR MODELS (00 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/NAM/SREF ETC.) PAINT SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE BRIEF DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
BUT...ODDS ARE LOW THAT ANY ONE PARTICULAR LOCATION WILL SEE
ANYTHING. THEREFORE...WENT WITH A BROAD SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A COOL DAY IS
ON TAP...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EJECTING EAST
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LEAVING THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S
FOR THE COOLER DAYS OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF PAINTS
THE MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS JUST BRUSHES
THE NORTH. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE GAVE SOME LIKELY POPS NORTH WITH
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SOUTH. THIS LOOKS OK AND APPEARS TO
BE A BLEND OF THE DRYER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF. AFTER THIS...MODELS
TREND TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH A CUTOFF LOW FORMING OFF THE
WEST COAST RESULTING IN A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA (CONTAINING THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY)
AND A MORE DOCILE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A QUIET REGION OF WEAK
SUBSIDENCE AS THE FLOWS CONVERGE DOWNSTREAM OF THE REGION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY IMPACTS AT
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ










000
FXUS63 KBIS 010535
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MONTANA CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST. THESE
COULD HOLD TOGETHER AND ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS LINE IS BEING SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE STEAM WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE ENVIRONMENT STABILIZES. THE LATEST HRRR
SUPPORTS THIS CONCLUSION BY PROGGING THIS LINE FIZZLING OUT AROUND
06Z.

UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD HOURLY POP FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR OBS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM THAT PRODUCED A
REPORTED 60 MPH WIND GUST HALFWAY BETWEEN TRENTON AND WILLISTON.
AS OF 630 PM CDT...A NEW CELL PRODUCED 50 MPH WIND GUSTS NEAR
WATFORD CITY. ALL HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN PEA-SIZED OR LESS. THINK
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE
STRONGER STORMS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK RIDGE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WITH TROF AXIS SLIDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA/CENTRAL
WYOMING. VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. STRONGEST SHORT WAVE NOW WORKING
INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE...THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
TAME SIDE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WORK WITH. COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE BY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS BROAD TROF WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITH THE TIMING OF WAVES BEING TRICKY...HAVE DECIDED TO BROAD-
BRUSH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION INTO MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR THE JET STREAM LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SOUTH. FLOW TRANSITIONS
MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DID INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST FORCING
ARRIVES. STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS DEPICTED SOUTH OF THE MAIN
FORCING SO STILL QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW PUT THE UPPER JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER THURSDAY WHICH PUTS THE MAIN STORM TRACKS
SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS POPS WERE
LOWERED. DID OPT TO GO A BIT BELOW ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH THIS
PATTERN SHIFT AND BASED ON DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY IMPACTS AT
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 010235
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS LINE IS BEING SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE STEAM WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE ENVIRONMENT STABILIZES. THE LATEST HRRR
SUPPORTS THIS CONCLUSION BY PROGGING THIS LINE FIZZLING OUT AROUND
06Z.

UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD HOURLY POP FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR OBS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM THAT PRODUCED A
REPORTED 60 MPH WIND GUST HALFWAY BETWEEN TRENTON AND WILLISTON.
AS OF 630 PM CDT...A NEW CELL PRODUCED 50 MPH WIND GUSTS NEAR
WATFORD CITY. ALL HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN PEA-SIZED OR LESS. THINK
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE
STRONGER STORMS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK RIDGE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WITH TROF AXIS SLIDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA/CENTRAL
WYOMING. VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. STRONGEST SHORT WAVE NOW WORKING
INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE...THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
TAME SIDE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WORK WITH. COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE BY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS BROAD TROF WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITH THE TIMING OF WAVES BEING TRICKY...HAVE DECIDED TO BROAD-
BRUSH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION INTO MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR THE JET STREAM LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SOUTH. FLOW TRANSITIONS
MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DID INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST FORCING
ARRIVES. STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS DEPICTED SOUTH OF THE MAIN
FORCING SO STILL QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW PUT THE UPPER JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER THURSDAY WHICH PUTS THE MAIN STORM TRACKS
SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS POPS WERE
LOWERED. DID OPT TO GO A BIT BELOW ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH THIS
PATTERN SHIFT AND BASED ON DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 312343
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
643 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM THAT PRODUCED A
REPORTED 60 MPH WIND GUST HALFWAY BETWEEN TRENTON AND WILLISTON.
AS OF 630 PM CDT...A NEW CELL PRODUCED 50 MPH WIND GUSTS NEAR
WATFORD CITY. ALL HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN PEA-SIZED OR LESS. THINK
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE
STRONGER STORMS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK RIDGE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WITH TROF AXIS SLIDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA/CENTRAL
WYOMING. VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. STRONGEST SHORT WAVE NOW WORKING
INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE...THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
TAME SIDE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WORK WITH. COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE BY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS BROAD TROF WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITH THE TIMING OF WAVES BEING TRICKY...HAVE DECIDED TO BROAD-
BRUSH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION INTO MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR THE JET STREAM LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SOUTH. FLOW TRANSITIONS
MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DID INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST FORCING
ARRIVES. STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS DEPICTED SOUTH OF THE MAIN
FORCING SO STILL QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW PUT THE UPPER JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER THURSDAY WHICH PUTS THE MAIN STORM TRACKS
SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS POPS WERE
LOWERED. DID OPT TO GO A BIT BELOW ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH THIS
PATTERN SHIFT AND BASED ON DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 312343
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
643 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM THAT PRODUCED A
REPORTED 60 MPH WIND GUST HALFWAY BETWEEN TRENTON AND WILLISTON.
AS OF 630 PM CDT...A NEW CELL PRODUCED 50 MPH WIND GUSTS NEAR
WATFORD CITY. ALL HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN PEA-SIZED OR LESS. THINK
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE
STRONGER STORMS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK RIDGE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WITH TROF AXIS SLIDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA/CENTRAL
WYOMING. VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. STRONGEST SHORT WAVE NOW WORKING
INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE...THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
TAME SIDE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WORK WITH. COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE BY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS BROAD TROF WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITH THE TIMING OF WAVES BEING TRICKY...HAVE DECIDED TO BROAD-
BRUSH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION INTO MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR THE JET STREAM LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SOUTH. FLOW TRANSITIONS
MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DID INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST FORCING
ARRIVES. STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS DEPICTED SOUTH OF THE MAIN
FORCING SO STILL QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW PUT THE UPPER JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER THURSDAY WHICH PUTS THE MAIN STORM TRACKS
SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS POPS WERE
LOWERED. DID OPT TO GO A BIT BELOW ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH THIS
PATTERN SHIFT AND BASED ON DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 312026
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
326 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK RIDGE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WITH TROF AXIS SLIDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA/CENTRAL
WYOMING. VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. STRONGEST SHORT WAVE NOW WORKING
INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE...THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
TAME SIDE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WORK WITH. COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE BY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS BROAD TROF WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITH THE TIMING OF WAVES BEING TRICKY...HAVE DECIDED TO BROAD-
BRUSH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION INTO MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR THE JET STREAM LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SOUTH. FLOW TRANSITIONS
MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DID INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST FORCING
ARRIVES. STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS DEPICTED SOUTH OF THE MAIN
FORCING SO STILL QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW PUT THE UPPER JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER THURSDAY WHICH PUTS THE MAIN STORM TRACKS
SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS POPS WERE
LOWERED. DID OPT TO GO A BIT BELOW ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH THIS
PATTERN SHIFT AND BASED ON DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY VIS/CIG
RESTRICTIONS. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE KJMS TERMINAL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 312026
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
326 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK RIDGE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WITH TROF AXIS SLIDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA/CENTRAL
WYOMING. VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. STRONGEST SHORT WAVE NOW WORKING
INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE...THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
TAME SIDE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WORK WITH. COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE BY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS BROAD TROF WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITH THE TIMING OF WAVES BEING TRICKY...HAVE DECIDED TO BROAD-
BRUSH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION INTO MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR THE JET STREAM LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SOUTH. FLOW TRANSITIONS
MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DID INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST FORCING
ARRIVES. STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS DEPICTED SOUTH OF THE MAIN
FORCING SO STILL QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW PUT THE UPPER JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER THURSDAY WHICH PUTS THE MAIN STORM TRACKS
SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS POPS WERE
LOWERED. DID OPT TO GO A BIT BELOW ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH THIS
PATTERN SHIFT AND BASED ON DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY VIS/CIG
RESTRICTIONS. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE KJMS TERMINAL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS










000
FXUS63 KBIS 311735
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST. OF TO THE
WEST...SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO RE-DEVELOP WITH THE NEXT WAVE
PUSHING THROUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH HIT-AND-MISS SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED...HAVE BROAD BRUSHED LOW POPS FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 824 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM JAMESTOWN TO HARVEY TO BOTTINEAU.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS...AND HAVE KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS SOME WEAK SHOWERS START TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE INTO THAT AREA. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED PATCHY FOG COVERAGE
FOR THE MORNING AS VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED OVER A VARIETY OF
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STILL GETTING SOME THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IN STUTSMAN COUNTY. APPEARS THIS WILL TRACK EAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREAS OF FOG SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THIS WILL LAST THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE EXITING RAINFALL THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND THE CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER TODAY.

THE HRRR MODEL HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF FORECASTING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AND POPS MIMIC THE 05 UTC
HRRR PRECIPITATION AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. MOST ALL HEAVY RAIN
HAS PUSHED EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER A VERY THIN BAND
OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS OF
0730 UTC THE BAND DROPPED HEAVY RAIN AT THE DICKINSON AIRPORT. DO
NOT EXPECT THIS BAND...AT LEAST THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...TO LAST MUCH LONGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MODELS AGREE ON A
BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 00 UTC
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME NAILING DOWN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL EXACTLY...HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AT THE MOST EXPECTING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE
IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. BY THURSDAY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE A
BIT MORE ROBUST IN QPF FORECAST FOR NORTH DAKOTA. LIKED THE
ALLBLEND VERSION OF POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 30 POPS FOR NOW.
AFTER THURSDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SEPARATED BETWEEN A NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH THE GFS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE FLOW
SEPARATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THE BASIC
RESULT WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
MERGES ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN WEAK SUDSIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY VIS/CIG
RESTRICTIONS. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE KJMS TERMINAL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 311337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
837 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM JAMESTOWN TO HARVEY TO BOTTINEAU.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS...AND HAVE KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS SOME WEAK SHOWERS START TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE INTO THAT AREA. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED PATCHY FOG COVERAGE
FOR THE MORNING AS VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED OVER A VARIETY OF
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STILL GETTING SOME THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IN STUTSMAN COUNTY. APPEARS THIS WILL TRACK EAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREAS OF FOG SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THIS WILL LAST THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE EXITING RAINFALL THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND THE CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER TODAY.

THE HRRR MODEL HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF FORECASTING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AND POPS MIMIC THE 05 UTC
HRRR PRECIPITATION AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. MOST ALL HEAVY RAIN
HAS PUSHED EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER A VERY THIN BAND
OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS OF
0730 UTC THE BAND DROPPED HEAVY RAIN AT THE DICKINSON AIRPORT. DO
NOT EXPECT THIS BAND...AT LEAST THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...TO LAST MUCH LONGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MODELS AGREE ON A
BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 00 UTC
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME NAILING DOWN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL EXACTLY...HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AT THE MOST EXPECTING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE
IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. BY THURSDAY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE A
BIT MORE ROBUST IN QPF FORECAST FOR NORTH DAKOTA. LIKED THE
ALLBLEND VERSION OF POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 30 POPS FOR NOW.
AFTER THURSDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SEPARATED BETWEEN A NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH THE GFS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE FLOW
SEPARATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THE BASIC
RESULT WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
MERGES ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN WEAK SUDSIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ONLY
KJMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BY 18Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE PAST KJMS.
LOW CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING AT KJMS...KBIS...
AND KMOT PROVIDING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD...HOWEVER SCATTERED IN NATURE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...MM









000
FXUS63 KBIS 311337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
837 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM JAMESTOWN TO HARVEY TO BOTTINEAU.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS...AND HAVE KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS SOME WEAK SHOWERS START TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE INTO THAT AREA. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED PATCHY FOG COVERAGE
FOR THE MORNING AS VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED OVER A VARIETY OF
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STILL GETTING SOME THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IN STUTSMAN COUNTY. APPEARS THIS WILL TRACK EAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREAS OF FOG SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THIS WILL LAST THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE EXITING RAINFALL THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND THE CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER TODAY.

THE HRRR MODEL HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF FORECASTING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AND POPS MIMIC THE 05 UTC
HRRR PRECIPITATION AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. MOST ALL HEAVY RAIN
HAS PUSHED EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER A VERY THIN BAND
OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS OF
0730 UTC THE BAND DROPPED HEAVY RAIN AT THE DICKINSON AIRPORT. DO
NOT EXPECT THIS BAND...AT LEAST THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...TO LAST MUCH LONGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MODELS AGREE ON A
BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 00 UTC
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME NAILING DOWN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL EXACTLY...HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AT THE MOST EXPECTING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE
IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. BY THURSDAY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE A
BIT MORE ROBUST IN QPF FORECAST FOR NORTH DAKOTA. LIKED THE
ALLBLEND VERSION OF POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 30 POPS FOR NOW.
AFTER THURSDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SEPARATED BETWEEN A NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH THE GFS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE FLOW
SEPARATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THE BASIC
RESULT WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
MERGES ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN WEAK SUDSIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ONLY
KJMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BY 18Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE PAST KJMS.
LOW CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING AT KJMS...KBIS...
AND KMOT PROVIDING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD...HOWEVER SCATTERED IN NATURE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...MM








000
FXUS63 KBIS 311139
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
639 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STILL GETTING SOME THUNDERSTORM REDEVLOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IN STUTSMAN COUNTY. APPEARS THIS WILL TRACK EAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREAS OF FOG SPEADING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THIS WILL LAST THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE EXITING RAINFALL THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND THE CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER TODAY.

THE HRRR MODEL HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF FORECASTING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AND POPS MIMIC THE 05 UTC
HRRR PRECIPITATION AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. MOST ALL HEAVY RAIN
HAS PUSHED EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER A VERY THIN BAND
OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS OF
0730 UTC THE BAND DROPPED HEAVY RAIN AT THE DICKINSON AIRPORT. DO
NOT EXPECT THIS BAND...AT LEAST THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...TO LAST MUCH LONGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MODELS AGREE ON A
BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 00 UTC
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME NAILING DOWN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL EXACTLY...HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AT THE MOST EXPECTING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE
IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. BY THURSDAY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE A
BIT MORE ROBUST IN QPF FORECAST FOR NORTH DAKOTA. LIKED THE
ALLBLEND VERSION OF POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 30 POPS FOR NOW.
AFTER THURSDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SEPARATED BETWEEN A NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH THE GFS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE FLOW
SEPARATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THE BASIC
RESULT WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
MERGES ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN WEAK SUDSIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ONLY
KJMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BY 18Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE PAST KJMS.
LOW CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING AT KJMS...KBIS...
AND KMOT PROVIDING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD...HOWEVER SCATTERED IN NATURE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...MM








000
FXUS63 KBIS 311139
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
639 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STILL GETTING SOME THUNDERSTORM REDEVLOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IN STUTSMAN COUNTY. APPEARS THIS WILL TRACK EAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREAS OF FOG SPEADING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THIS WILL LAST THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE EXITING RAINFALL THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND THE CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER TODAY.

THE HRRR MODEL HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF FORECASTING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AND POPS MIMIC THE 05 UTC
HRRR PRECIPITATION AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. MOST ALL HEAVY RAIN
HAS PUSHED EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER A VERY THIN BAND
OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS OF
0730 UTC THE BAND DROPPED HEAVY RAIN AT THE DICKINSON AIRPORT. DO
NOT EXPECT THIS BAND...AT LEAST THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...TO LAST MUCH LONGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MODELS AGREE ON A
BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 00 UTC
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME NAILING DOWN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL EXACTLY...HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AT THE MOST EXPECTING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE
IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. BY THURSDAY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE A
BIT MORE ROBUST IN QPF FORECAST FOR NORTH DAKOTA. LIKED THE
ALLBLEND VERSION OF POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 30 POPS FOR NOW.
AFTER THURSDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SEPARATED BETWEEN A NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH THE GFS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE FLOW
SEPARATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THE BASIC
RESULT WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
MERGES ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN WEAK SUDSIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ONLY
KJMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BY 18Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE PAST KJMS.
LOW CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING AT KJMS...KBIS...
AND KMOT PROVIDING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD...HOWEVER SCATTERED IN NATURE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...MM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 310859
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
359 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE EXITING RAINFALL THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND THE CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER TODAY.

THE HRRR MODEL HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF FORECASTING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AND POPS MIMIC THE 05 UTC
HRRR PRECIPITATION AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. MOST ALL HEAVY RAIN
HAS PUSHED EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER A VERY THIN BAND
OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS OF
0730 UTC THE BAND DROPPED HEAVY RAIN AT THE DICKINSON AIRPORT. DO
NOT EXPECT THIS BAND...AT LEAST THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...TO LAST MUCH LONGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MODELS AGREE ON A
BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 00 UTC
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME NAILING DOWN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL EXACTLY...HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AT THE MOST EXPECTING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE
IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. BY THURSDAY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE A
BIT MORE ROBUST IN QPF FORECAST FOR NORTH DAKOTA. LIKED THE
ALLBLEND VERSION OF POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 30 POPS FOR NOW.
AFTER THURSDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SEPARATED BETWEEN A NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH THE GFS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE FLOW
SEPARATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THE BASIC
RESULT WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
MERGES ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN WEAK SUDSIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

0530Z A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PROGRESSING EAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. KMOT-KBIS-KJMS WILL INITIALLY
BE IMPACTED BY THE STORMS. AFTER 08Z THE LINE WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF KMOT-KBIS AND THEN AFTER 10Z AT KJMS. NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING
IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE CENTRAL AND EAST.
OTHERWISE ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA










000
FXUS63 KBIS 310859
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
359 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE EXITING RAINFALL THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND THE CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER TODAY.

THE HRRR MODEL HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF FORECASTING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AND POPS MIMIC THE 05 UTC
HRRR PRECIPITATION AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. MOST ALL HEAVY RAIN
HAS PUSHED EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER A VERY THIN BAND
OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS OF
0730 UTC THE BAND DROPPED HEAVY RAIN AT THE DICKINSON AIRPORT. DO
NOT EXPECT THIS BAND...AT LEAST THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...TO LAST MUCH LONGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MODELS AGREE ON A
BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 00 UTC
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME NAILING DOWN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL EXACTLY...HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AT THE MOST EXPECTING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE
IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. BY THURSDAY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE A
BIT MORE ROBUST IN QPF FORECAST FOR NORTH DAKOTA. LIKED THE
ALLBLEND VERSION OF POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 30 POPS FOR NOW.
AFTER THURSDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SEPARATED BETWEEN A NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH THE GFS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE FLOW
SEPARATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THE BASIC
RESULT WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
MERGES ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN WEAK SUDSIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

0530Z A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PROGRESSING EAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. KMOT-KBIS-KJMS WILL INITIALLY
BE IMPACTED BY THE STORMS. AFTER 08Z THE LINE WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF KMOT-KBIS AND THEN AFTER 10Z AT KJMS. NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING
IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE CENTRAL AND EAST.
OTHERWISE ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KBIS 310549
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1249 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LARGE TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN REGION
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. NOW ONLY EXPECT AREAS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO BRING THE
POPS INTO CONFORMITY WITH THE LINE OF STORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA.
CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES
IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A RESULT.

ALSO UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. TRIMMED THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
THE WATCH AS A RESULT. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AS A RESULT...REMOVED BILLINGS...SLOPE...AND BOWMAN COUNTIES FROM
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
HETTINGER AND ADAMS COUNTIES SOUTH OF DICKINSON. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS FOR THE COUNTIES STILL IN THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT / 1 AM
MDT SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

0530Z A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PROGRESSING EAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. KMOT-KBIS-KJMS WILL INITIALLY
BE IMPACTED BY THE STORMS. AFTER 08Z THE LINE WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF KMOT-KBIS AND THEN AFTER 10Z AT KJMS. NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING
IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE CENTRAL AND EAST.
OTHERWISE ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 310549
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1249 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LARGE TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN REGION
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. NOW ONLY EXPECT AREAS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO BRING THE
POPS INTO CONFORMITY WITH THE LINE OF STORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA.
CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES
IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A RESULT.

ALSO UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. TRIMMED THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
THE WATCH AS A RESULT. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AS A RESULT...REMOVED BILLINGS...SLOPE...AND BOWMAN COUNTIES FROM
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
HETTINGER AND ADAMS COUNTIES SOUTH OF DICKINSON. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS FOR THE COUNTIES STILL IN THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT / 1 AM
MDT SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

0530Z A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PROGRESSING EAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. KMOT-KBIS-KJMS WILL INITIALLY
BE IMPACTED BY THE STORMS. AFTER 08Z THE LINE WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF KMOT-KBIS AND THEN AFTER 10Z AT KJMS. NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING
IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE CENTRAL AND EAST.
OTHERWISE ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 310449
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1149 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA.
CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES
IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A RESULT.

ALSO UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. TRIMMED THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
THE WATCH AS A RESULT. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AS A RESULT...REMOVED BILLINGS...SLOPE...AND BOWMAN COUNTIES FROM
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
HETTINGER AND ADAMS COUNTIES SOUTH OF DICKINSON. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS FOR THE COUNTIES STILL IN THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT / 1 AM
MDT SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 310449
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1149 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA.
CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES
IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A RESULT.

ALSO UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. TRIMMED THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
THE WATCH AS A RESULT. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AS A RESULT...REMOVED BILLINGS...SLOPE...AND BOWMAN COUNTIES FROM
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
HETTINGER AND ADAMS COUNTIES SOUTH OF DICKINSON. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS FOR THE COUNTIES STILL IN THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT / 1 AM
MDT SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM








000
FXUS63 KBIS 310422
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. TRIMMED THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
THE WATCH AS A RESULT. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AS A RESULT...REMOVED BILLINGS...SLOPE...AND BOWMAN COUNTIES FROM
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
HETTINGER AND ADAMS COUNTIES SOUTH OF DICKINSON. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS FOR THE COUNTIES STILL IN THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT / 1 AM
MDT SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 310422
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. TRIMMED THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
THE WATCH AS A RESULT. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AS A RESULT...REMOVED BILLINGS...SLOPE...AND BOWMAN COUNTIES FROM
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
HETTINGER AND ADAMS COUNTIES SOUTH OF DICKINSON. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS FOR THE COUNTIES STILL IN THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT / 1 AM
MDT SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM








000
FXUS63 KBIS 310250
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
950 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AS A RESULT...REMOVED BILLINGS...SLOPE...AND BOWMAN COUNTIES FROM
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
HETTINGER AND ADAMS COUNTIES SOUTH OF DICKINSON. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS FOR THE COUNTIES STILL IN THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT / 1 AM
MDT SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM









000
FXUS63 KBIS 310250
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
950 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AS A RESULT...REMOVED BILLINGS...SLOPE...AND BOWMAN COUNTIES FROM
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
HETTINGER AND ADAMS COUNTIES SOUTH OF DICKINSON. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS FOR THE COUNTIES STILL IN THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT / 1 AM
MDT SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM








000
FXUS63 KBIS 310058
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT / 1 AM
MDT SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 310058
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT / 1 AM
MDT SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM








000
FXUS63 KBIS 302332
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 302332
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 302017
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER SOUTHWEST ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION...WDSPRD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
LATER SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 302017
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER SOUTHWEST ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION...WDSPRD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
LATER SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS










000
FXUS63 KBIS 301754
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM  CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LIGHT PRECIPITATION NOW WORKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH INITIAL WAVE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FROM THIS AS EXPECT
STRONGER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH SUBSEQUENT WAVES. STILL HAVE SOME SEVERE CONCERNS FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT FOCUS APPEARS MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

INITIAL WAVE OF CONVECTION NOW PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA
BUT THIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST. EXPECT STRONGER
CONVECTION TO DO ITS APPROACH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF
POSSIBLE SEVERE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY BY THAT TIME WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR
FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SOME WITH THE EXPECTED
TIMING OF THIS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REFINED THE FOG AREA BASED ON SATELLITE/SURFACE REPORTS. ROLLA IN
THE UPPER 30S THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE SEVERE THREAT AND QPF TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A POTENT SHORT
WAVE PROGRESSING WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHOULD SET UP IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES STRAIGHT WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES ALONG WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN FROM STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AND NIGHT EXPECT MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SUPERCELLS FOR LONG.

AS FOR QPF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF PLACING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE. FROM THERE
MODELS SHOW THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS PROGRESSING EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER...MODELS DIVERGE A BIT WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAIN WILL FALL. THE 00 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF DIFFERS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM RUNS BY PLACING A BULLSEYE OF QPF IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHILE THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE HEAVIER TOTALS FURTHER NORTH
IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA. FOR NOW STICKING WITH A BLEND OF THE 3 MODELS
FOR THE QPF FORECAST AND WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF THEY MERGE
INTO A MORE CONSENSUS TRACK FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN LATER RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD H500 COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MID
WEEK. DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW BUT THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RELATIVELY COOLER
AIR ENTERS THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT 15 TO
25 MPH WINDS. MORNING LOWS COULD DIP INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BUT AS OF YET DO NOT SEE EARLY FROST ISSUES. BY THE MID TO END OF
THE WEEK THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN
H500 SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND A PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AT LEAST BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER SOUTHWEST ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION...WDSPRD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 301754
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM  CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LIGHT PRECIPITATION NOW WORKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH INITIAL WAVE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FROM THIS AS EXPECT
STRONGER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH SUBSEQUENT WAVES. STILL HAVE SOME SEVERE CONCERNS FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT FOCUS APPEARS MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

INITIAL WAVE OF CONVECTION NOW PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA
BUT THIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST. EXPECT STRONGER
CONVECTION TO DO ITS APPROACH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF
POSSIBLE SEVERE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY BY THAT TIME WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR
FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SOME WITH THE EXPECTED
TIMING OF THIS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REFINED THE FOG AREA BASED ON SATELLITE/SURFACE REPORTS. ROLLA IN
THE UPPER 30S THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE SEVERE THREAT AND QPF TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A POTENT SHORT
WAVE PROGRESSING WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHOULD SET UP IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES STRAIGHT WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES ALONG WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN FROM STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AND NIGHT EXPECT MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SUPERCELLS FOR LONG.

AS FOR QPF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF PLACING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE. FROM THERE
MODELS SHOW THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS PROGRESSING EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER...MODELS DIVERGE A BIT WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAIN WILL FALL. THE 00 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF DIFFERS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM RUNS BY PLACING A BULLSEYE OF QPF IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHILE THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE HEAVIER TOTALS FURTHER NORTH
IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA. FOR NOW STICKING WITH A BLEND OF THE 3 MODELS
FOR THE QPF FORECAST AND WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF THEY MERGE
INTO A MORE CONSENSUS TRACK FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN LATER RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD H500 COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MID
WEEK. DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW BUT THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RELATIVELY COOLER
AIR ENTERS THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT 15 TO
25 MPH WINDS. MORNING LOWS COULD DIP INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BUT AS OF YET DO NOT SEE EARLY FROST ISSUES. BY THE MID TO END OF
THE WEEK THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN
H500 SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND A PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AT LEAST BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER SOUTHWEST ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION...WDSPRD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS







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