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000
FXUS63 KBIS 290900
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND CLOUD
COVER/RESULTANT TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION. EMBEDDED S/WV MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITING NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO CREATE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY
ALONG TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94...WHICH SHOULD END BY 12Z AT THE
LATEST AS FORCING DIMINISHES. EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS
REMAINS OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...IN ADDITION
TO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH TIME FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
STATE WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LATEST NAM/HRRR INDICATES
LOW STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND OVER PORTIONS
OF MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS ARE DEPICTED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

RESULTANT TEMPERATURES WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL SEE
WARMEST READINGS SOUTHWEST WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
WEAK WAA. CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL BE TEMPERED MORE WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT MUCH WARMER THAN THEY ARE
NOW...MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. ACROSS THE EAST...CAA NORTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE TEENS...LOW/MID 20S JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER AND ALSO MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE COLD SFC HIGH.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A RETURN TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC CHANCES
OF LIGHT SNOW HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN...WHILE THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINS HIGH WITH A LOW RELATIVE MEASURE OF
PREDICTABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500 HPA HEIGHTS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. THUS A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WAS UTILIZED.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A GFS/ECMWF BLEND BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.

THE SECOND WAVE TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WITH THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOOKING TO SEE THE BEST CHANCES OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AND LOCATIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THESE CLIPPERS WOULD
BRING SUB-ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. IF CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS
HOLD...WE COULD BE CLOSE TO LOW ADVISORY 3 INCH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
SATURDAY. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH NEAR ADVISORY WIND CHILL
CRITERIA EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL START MID-MORNING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST FOR KDIK AND POSSIBLY EAST FOR KJMS.
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL TERMINALS...KISN-KBIS-KMOT...ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN STRATUS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN IMPROVEMENT
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH









000
FXUS63 KBIS 290642
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1242 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH...LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL CONTINUE
OFF TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THUS REMOVED PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH...AND SCALED BACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ELSEWHERE THROUGH 12Z.

SKY COVER WAS INCREASED THURSDAY WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST A
TAD HASTY IN DECREASING SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST NAM/HRRR
BOUNDARY LAYER RH FIELDS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL. STRATUS SHOULD
ERODE SOUTHWEST AND EAST TOMORROW. ALL OTHER GRID ELEMENTS ON
TRACK.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
FILTER THROUGH THE AREA. STILL EXPECT SOME SPOTS OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE SO WILL CONTINUE THAT IN FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE SPREAD PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. A FEW AREA WEBCAMS
SHOWING SOME GLAZE...AND A SPOTTER REPORT NEAR GRASSY BUTTE HAS
INDICATED SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS OF NOW THE 12 UTC MODELS
POINT TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW COVERAGE IS PATCHY AND WILL
PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS WERE NEAR 40
MPH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON FOR ANY
WIND HEADLINES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. CLIPPERS ARE PROJECTED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL START MID-MORNING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST FOR KDIK AND EAST FOR KJMS. NORTHWEST
AND CENTRAL TERMINALS...KISN-KBIS-KMOT...ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN STRATUS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN IMPROVEMENT LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...NH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 290329
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
929 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
FILTER THROUGH THE AREA. STILL EXPECT SOME SPOTS OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE SO WILL CONTINUE THAT IN FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE SPREAD PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. A FEW AREA WEBCAMS
SHOWING SOME GLAZE...AND A SPOTTER REPORT NEAR GRASSY BUTTE HAS
INDICATED SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS OF NOW THE 12 UTC MODELS
POINT TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW COVERAGE IS PATCHY AND WILL
PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS WERE NEAR 40
MPH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON FOR ANY
WIND HEADLINES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. CLIPPERS ARE PROJECTED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT STARTING MID-MORNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY. LCL -FZDZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 290329
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
929 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
FILTER THROUGH THE AREA. STILL EXPECT SOME SPOTS OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE SO WILL CONTINUE THAT IN FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE SPREAD PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. A FEW AREA WEBCAMS
SHOWING SOME GLAZE...AND A SPOTTER REPORT NEAR GRASSY BUTTE HAS
INDICATED SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS OF NOW THE 12 UTC MODELS
POINT TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW COVERAGE IS PATCHY AND WILL
PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS WERE NEAR 40
MPH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON FOR ANY
WIND HEADLINES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. CLIPPERS ARE PROJECTED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT STARTING MID-MORNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY. LCL -FZDZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 290028
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
628 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE SPREAD PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. A FEW AREA WEBCAMS
SHOWING SOME GLAZE...AND A SPOTTER REPORT NEAR GRASSY BUTTE HAS
INDICATED SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS OF NOW THE 12 UTC MODELS
POINT TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW COVERAGE IS PATCHY AND WILL
PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS WERE NEAR 40
MPH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON FOR ANY
WIND HEADLINES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. CLIPPERS ARE PROJECTED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT STARTING MID-MORNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY. LCL -FZDZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 290028
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
628 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE SPREAD PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. A FEW AREA WEBCAMS
SHOWING SOME GLAZE...AND A SPOTTER REPORT NEAR GRASSY BUTTE HAS
INDICATED SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS OF NOW THE 12 UTC MODELS
POINT TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW COVERAGE IS PATCHY AND WILL
PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS WERE NEAR 40
MPH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON FOR ANY
WIND HEADLINES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. CLIPPERS ARE PROJECTED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT STARTING MID-MORNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY. LCL -FZDZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 290028
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
628 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE SPREAD PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. A FEW AREA WEBCAMS
SHOWING SOME GLAZE...AND A SPOTTER REPORT NEAR GRASSY BUTTE HAS
INDICATED SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS OF NOW THE 12 UTC MODELS
POINT TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW COVERAGE IS PATCHY AND WILL
PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS WERE NEAR 40
MPH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON FOR ANY
WIND HEADLINES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. CLIPPERS ARE PROJECTED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT STARTING MID-MORNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY. LCL -FZDZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 282052
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS OF NOW THE 12 UTC MODELS
POINT TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW COVERAGE IS PATCHY AND WILL
PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS WERE NEAR 40
MPH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON FOR ANY
WIND HEADLINES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. CLIPPERS ARE PROJECTED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIFR TO IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM
TAFS AS PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MORE LIKELY BE FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR SIMPLY DRIZZLE...HOWEVER IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND PATCHY
ACROSS THE REGION THUS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH BR IN THE TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...MM










000
FXUS63 KBIS 282052
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS OF NOW THE 12 UTC MODELS
POINT TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW COVERAGE IS PATCHY AND WILL
PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS WERE NEAR 40
MPH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON FOR ANY
WIND HEADLINES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. CLIPPERS ARE PROJECTED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIFR TO IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM
TAFS AS PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MORE LIKELY BE FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR SIMPLY DRIZZLE...HOWEVER IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND PATCHY
ACROSS THE REGION THUS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH BR IN THE TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...MM









000
FXUS63 KBIS 281837
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
AS VISIBILITIES HAVE CONSISTENTLY IMPROVED. HAVE LEFT AREAS OF FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WITH PATCHY MENTIONS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST.

INCREASED WINDS A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY WIND ADVISORY AS CRITERIA IS BORDERLINE AND THE HIGHEST
WIND SPEEDS DO NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH 00 UTC. PROFILES SHOW A SATURATED LOWER LEVEL AND WITH
MOST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH
DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NO UPDATES OTHER THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST 6 AM
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON TRENDS VIA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL LEAN
ON HRRR GUIDANCE (WHICH IS DOING VERY WELL) AND EXPAND FOG
WORDING WEST AND SOUTH AND WILL ALSO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FARTHER WEST. ALSO EXTENDED TILL 18Z FOR HEADLINE CUTOFF.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOG AND CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED AT SITES KISN...KMOT...AND KJMS AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIFR TO IFR. FOR KBIS AND
KDIK LOWER CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR IFR CONDITIONS. TOOK
OUT THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM TAFS AS PRECIP TYPE WILL MORE LIKELY
BE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SIMPLY DRIZZLE...HOWEVER IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT AND PATCHY ACROSS THE REGION THUS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH BR
IN THE TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...MM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 281837
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
AS VISIBILITIES HAVE CONSISTENTLY IMPROVED. HAVE LEFT AREAS OF FOG
IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WITH PATCHY MENTIONS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST.

INCREASED WINDS A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY WIND ADVISORY AS CRITERIA IS BORDERLINE AND THE HIGHEST
WIND SPEEDS DO NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH 00 UTC. PROFILES SHOW A SATURATED LOWER LEVEL AND WITH
MOST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH
DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NO UPDATES OTHER THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST 6 AM
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON TRENDS VIA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL LEAN
ON HRRR GUIDANCE (WHICH IS DOING VERY WELL) AND EXPAND FOG
WORDING WEST AND SOUTH AND WILL ALSO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FARTHER WEST. ALSO EXTENDED TILL 18Z FOR HEADLINE CUTOFF.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOG AND CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED AT SITES KISN...KMOT...AND KJMS AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIFR TO IFR. FOR KBIS AND
KDIK LOWER CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR IFR CONDITIONS. TOOK
OUT THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM TAFS AS PRECIP TYPE WILL MORE LIKELY
BE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SIMPLY DRIZZLE...HOWEVER IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT AND PATCHY ACROSS THE REGION THUS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH BR
IN THE TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...MM








000
FXUS63 KBIS 281624
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1024 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH 00 UTC. PROFILES SHOW A SATURATED LOWER LEVEL AND WITH
MOST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH
DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NO UPDATES OTHER THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST 6 AM
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON TRENDS VIA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL LEAN
ON HRRR GUIDANCE (WHICH IS DOING VERY WELL) AND EXPAND FOG
WORDING WEST AND SOUTH AND WILL ALSO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FARTHER WEST. ALSO EXTENDED TILL 18Z FOR HEADLINE CUTOFF.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY TODAY AS
LOW STRATUS AND FOG EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. LOW
STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIFT TO
LIFR/IFR MOST AREAS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
021>023-025-036-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH









000
FXUS63 KBIS 281624
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1024 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH 00 UTC. PROFILES SHOW A SATURATED LOWER LEVEL AND WITH
MOST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH
DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NO UPDATES OTHER THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST 6 AM
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON TRENDS VIA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL LEAN
ON HRRR GUIDANCE (WHICH IS DOING VERY WELL) AND EXPAND FOG
WORDING WEST AND SOUTH AND WILL ALSO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FARTHER WEST. ALSO EXTENDED TILL 18Z FOR HEADLINE CUTOFF.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY TODAY AS
LOW STRATUS AND FOG EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. LOW
STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIFT TO
LIFR/IFR MOST AREAS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
021>023-025-036-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 281230
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NO UPDATES OTHER THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST 6 AM
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON TRENDS VIA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL LEAN
ON HRRR GUIDANCE (WHICH IS DOING VERY WELL) AND EXPAND FOG
WORDING WEST AND SOUTH AND WILL ALSO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FARTHER WEST. ALSO EXTENDED TILL 18Z FOR HEADLINE CUTOFF.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY TODAY AS
LOW STRATUS AND FOG EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. LOW
STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIFT TO
LIFR/IFR MOST AREAS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
021>023-025-036-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 281230
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NO UPDATES OTHER THAN TO UPDATE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST 6 AM
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON TRENDS VIA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL LEAN
ON HRRR GUIDANCE (WHICH IS DOING VERY WELL) AND EXPAND FOG
WORDING WEST AND SOUTH AND WILL ALSO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FARTHER WEST. ALSO EXTENDED TILL 18Z FOR HEADLINE CUTOFF.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY TODAY AS
LOW STRATUS AND FOG EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. LOW
STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIFT TO
LIFR/IFR MOST AREAS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
021>023-025-036-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 281146
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON TRENDS VIA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL LEAN
ON HRRR GUIDANCE (WHICH IS DOING VERY WELL) AND EXPAND FOG
WORDING WEST AND SOUTH AND WILL ALSO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FARTHER WEST. ALSO EXTENDED TILL 18Z FOR HEADLINE CUTOFF.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY TODAY AS
LOW STRATUS AND FOG EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. LOW
STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIFT TO
LIFR/IFR MOST AREAS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
021>023-025-036-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 281146
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON TRENDS VIA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL LEAN
ON HRRR GUIDANCE (WHICH IS DOING VERY WELL) AND EXPAND FOG
WORDING WEST AND SOUTH AND WILL ALSO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FARTHER WEST. ALSO EXTENDED TILL 18Z FOR HEADLINE CUTOFF.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 546 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY TODAY AS
LOW STRATUS AND FOG EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. LOW
STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIFT TO
LIFR/IFR MOST AREAS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
021>023-025-036-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 280943
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED AND MAY CONTINUE. THIS INCLUDES KJMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. LOW STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ005-013-
023-025-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 280943
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED AND MAY CONTINUE. THIS INCLUDES KJMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. LOW STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ005-013-
023-025-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 280943
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED AND MAY CONTINUE. THIS INCLUDES KJMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. LOW STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ005-013-
023-025-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 280943
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EAST. OBSERVATIONS NOT GETTING
ANY BETTER AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING WORSE VISIBILITIES NOW.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED AND MAY CONTINUE. THIS INCLUDES KJMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. LOW STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ005-013-
023-025-037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 280915
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED AND MAY CONTINUE. THIS INCLUDES KJMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. LOW STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH









000
FXUS63 KBIS 280915
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV`S CROSSING THE ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. LARGE STRATUS FIELD WRAPS BACK WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS MY EAST...AND WILL HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY...SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS
BRINGS 35 TO NEAR 40KTS WITHIN THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO MOST
SITES...SO WHILE BREEZY...SUB-ADVISORY MAGNITUDES. THUS NO
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STRATUS TO OUR NORTH SURGES
SOUTH ALONG WITH CAA WITH MOST OF REGION CLOUDED OVER BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING NORTH THEN SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TONIGHT. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CAA AND CLOUD COVER...THE INCREASED
MIXING WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. SO ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE GLOBAL GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL USE
A GFS/EC SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
SNOW GROWTH ZONE BECOMES RATHER DEEP BY 00 UTC SUNDAY BUT OMEGA
WITHIN THE ZONE IS LIMITED. BUT WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE
COLD AIR FILTERS IN...THINK ONE OR TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
NORTH DAKOTA. A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD YIELD
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...BUT SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF EACH REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED AND MAY CONTINUE. THIS INCLUDES KJMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. LOW STRATUS WILL THEN HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH










000
FXUS63 KBIS 280703
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN UPDATES WITH THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADJUST
SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
EXPANDING THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVER THE JAMES AND WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASINS.

CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
BEFORE WE CLOUD UP AGAIN IN THE MID LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING.
WILL ALSO SEE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER 10-12Z WHICH WILL THEN SURGE SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY TO MID DAY.

DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES...BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT
THINKING IS WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW AND THROW OUT A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOG REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AND
MAY CONTINUE. THIS INCLUDES KJMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL
IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO MID-DAY. STRATUS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 280703
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN UPDATES WITH THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADJUST
SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
EXPANDING THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVER THE JAMES AND WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASINS.

CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
BEFORE WE CLOUD UP AGAIN IN THE MID LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING.
WILL ALSO SEE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER 10-12Z WHICH WILL THEN SURGE SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY TO MID DAY.

DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES...BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT
THINKING IS WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW AND THROW OUT A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOG REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AND
MAY CONTINUE. THIS INCLUDES KJMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL
IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO MID-DAY. STRATUS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 280703
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN UPDATES WITH THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADJUST
SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
EXPANDING THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVER THE JAMES AND WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASINS.

CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
BEFORE WE CLOUD UP AGAIN IN THE MID LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING.
WILL ALSO SEE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER 10-12Z WHICH WILL THEN SURGE SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY TO MID DAY.

DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES...BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT
THINKING IS WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW AND THROW OUT A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOG REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AND
MAY CONTINUE. THIS INCLUDES KJMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL
IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO MID-DAY. STRATUS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 280703
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN UPDATES WITH THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ADJUST
SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
EXPANDING THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVER THE JAMES AND WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASINS.

CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
BEFORE WE CLOUD UP AGAIN IN THE MID LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING.
WILL ALSO SEE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER 10-12Z WHICH WILL THEN SURGE SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY TO MID DAY.

DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES...BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT
THINKING IS WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW AND THROW OUT A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOG REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 103 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AND
MAY CONTINUE. THIS INCLUDES KJMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL
IFR OR LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO MID-DAY. STRATUS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 280311
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
911 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOG REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 280311
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
911 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOG REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 280133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
733 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 280133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
733 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 280133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
733 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 280133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
733 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SOME FOG HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO
ADDRESS THIS. HAVE STRETCHED IT UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 280025
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
625 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 280025
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
625 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FOR EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE REGION. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG SNEAKING INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS AS IF THIS SHOULD
STAY OFF TO THE EAST THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MID-DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 272125
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH (KISN-KMOT) BY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...TM
HYDROLOGY...AJS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 272125
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

RECORDS HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         62 (RECORD)  51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         53 (RECORD)  47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          52 (RECORD)  48 IN 2008
MINOT             49           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           47 IN 1989

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CRESTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
EAST TO THE 30S WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED CHANCE
POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH. FURTHERMORE...WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT 12Z
MODEL RUN PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT
WAVE/SNOW. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALBERTA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE. THE OVERALL TIMING/LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS LIGHTER ON QPF THEN THE 12Z
GFS/GEM...WHICH ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE STATE. AT THIS
POINT...UNCERTAINLY REMAINS ON LOCATIONS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH (KISN-KMOT) BY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINS...BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
NEAR ONE-HALF INCH FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS MODEST RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF. SOME STREAMS REMAIN AT LEVELS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AFFECTED STREAMS
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE KNIFE RIVER...HEART RIVER...
CANNONBALL RIVER...BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...AND THE LITTLE
MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MINOR ICE JAMS INDICATE THAT ICE IS
MOVING AT SOME LOCATIONS AND IT IS LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

NOT ONLY ARE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...BUT SEVERAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED INFLOW. SHORELINE
CONDITIONS AS RESERVOIR AND RIVER LEVELS RISE DETERIORATE AND CAN
POSE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR ACCESS. ANGLERS ARE URGED TO
CAREFULLY CHECK THE ICE BEFORE VENTURING OUT WITH A VEHICLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...TM
HYDROLOGY...AJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 271807
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1207 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA PER LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS. AT 12 PM CST...TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE 50S IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE AXIS (DICKINSON/HETTINGER)
AND IN THE 40S AHEAD OF THE TROUGH (BISMARCK/GLEN ULLIN).

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING JUST HOW FAR EAST
THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL MAKE IT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE EXPECTED
SUBSEQUENT WARMING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. STILL THINK THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL NUDGE EAST INTO BISMARCK BY MID-AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 50S. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALONE FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING FOG WORDING
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO BE ON TARGET TO
BREAK RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER A BIT WEST WITH QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOWER STRATUS/FOG
HAS REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT LOWER TEMPERATURE
DEWPOINT SPREADS REMAIN FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. REMOVED PATCHY FOR FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA
THROUGH 14 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RECORD HIGHS
TODAY.

CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL WAA SPREADING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WILL
MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG WORDING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COUNTIES WITH LOW T/TD SPREADS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY COUPLED
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE MONTANA/WYOMING
ROCKIES. THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING WAA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LACK OF SNOW
PACK ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL ALLOW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. EAST OF THE MISSOURI SOME
SNOW REMAINS SO HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT THERE. ONE CONCERN
FOR HIGHS TODAY IS THE LACK OF A DECENT MIXING WIND (AS WE SAW
MONDAY)...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS (WHICH MODELS
ARE NOT DEPICTING VERY WELL AT THE MOMENT. REGARDLESS WE SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO BREAK RECORDS FOR DICKINSON...WILLISTON...AND
BISMARCK. BELOW IS A TABLE COMPARING FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WITH
RECORD HIGHS (JANUARY 27).

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         61           51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         54           47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          56           48 IN 2008
MINOT             50           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         44           47 IN 1989

CAA BEGINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FROM
CANADA WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. MODELS INDICATING LOW STRATUS ACCOMPANYING THE CAA SO
INCREASED SKY COVER. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ON WEDNESDAY TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
INDUCE A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WE BEGIN
THE DAY QUITE MILD WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S...AND
WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE 40S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. THE COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE
MID LEVEL FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW OVER THE FAR
FAR NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WE THEN SEE A BRIEF WARM-UP THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT ACCOMPANIES THE SURGE OF COLD
AIR AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR MINIMAL BUT WE DID INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY.

THE FAR WEST MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL SOUTHWEST TO WELL BELOW NORMAL NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH (KISN-KMOT) BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RIVER AND STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
BASIN TODAY RESULTING FROM SNOW MELT AND RECENT PRECIPITATION ON
FROZEN SOILS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF
ITSELF...SOME ICE BREAK UP MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO ICE JAMS AND TEMPORARY
HIGH WATER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM
HYDROLOGY...AJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271807
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1207 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA PER LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS. AT 12 PM CST...TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE 50S IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE AXIS (DICKINSON/HETTINGER)
AND IN THE 40S AHEAD OF THE TROUGH (BISMARCK/GLEN ULLIN).

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING JUST HOW FAR EAST
THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL MAKE IT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE EXPECTED
SUBSEQUENT WARMING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. STILL THINK THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL NUDGE EAST INTO BISMARCK BY MID-AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 50S. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE
THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALONE FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING FOG WORDING
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO BE ON TARGET TO
BREAK RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER A BIT WEST WITH QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOWER STRATUS/FOG
HAS REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT LOWER TEMPERATURE
DEWPOINT SPREADS REMAIN FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. REMOVED PATCHY FOR FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA
THROUGH 14 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RECORD HIGHS
TODAY.

CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL WAA SPREADING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WILL
MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG WORDING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COUNTIES WITH LOW T/TD SPREADS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY COUPLED
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE MONTANA/WYOMING
ROCKIES. THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING WAA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LACK OF SNOW
PACK ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL ALLOW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. EAST OF THE MISSOURI SOME
SNOW REMAINS SO HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT THERE. ONE CONCERN
FOR HIGHS TODAY IS THE LACK OF A DECENT MIXING WIND (AS WE SAW
MONDAY)...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS (WHICH MODELS
ARE NOT DEPICTING VERY WELL AT THE MOMENT. REGARDLESS WE SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO BREAK RECORDS FOR DICKINSON...WILLISTON...AND
BISMARCK. BELOW IS A TABLE COMPARING FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WITH
RECORD HIGHS (JANUARY 27).

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         61           51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         54           47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          56           48 IN 2008
MINOT             50           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         44           47 IN 1989

CAA BEGINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FROM
CANADA WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. MODELS INDICATING LOW STRATUS ACCOMPANYING THE CAA SO
INCREASED SKY COVER. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ON WEDNESDAY TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
INDUCE A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WE BEGIN
THE DAY QUITE MILD WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S...AND
WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE 40S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. THE COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE
MID LEVEL FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW OVER THE FAR
FAR NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WE THEN SEE A BRIEF WARM-UP THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT ACCOMPANIES THE SURGE OF COLD
AIR AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR MINIMAL BUT WE DID INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY.

THE FAR WEST MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL SOUTHWEST TO WELL BELOW NORMAL NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH (KISN-KMOT) BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RIVER AND STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
BASIN TODAY RESULTING FROM SNOW MELT AND RECENT PRECIPITATION ON
FROZEN SOILS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF
ITSELF...SOME ICE BREAK UP MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO ICE JAMS AND TEMPORARY
HIGH WATER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM
HYDROLOGY...AJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 271451
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
851 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING FOG WORDING
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO BE ON TARGET TO
BREAK RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER A BIT WEST WITH QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOWER STRATUS/FOG
HAS REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT LOWER TEMPERATURE
DEWPOINT SPREADS REMAIN FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. REMOVED PATCHY FOR FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA
THROUGH 14 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RECORD HIGHS
TODAY.

CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL WAA SPREADING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WILL
MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG WORDING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COUNTIES WITH LOW T/TD SPREADS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY COUPLED
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE MONTANA/WYOMING
ROCKIES. THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING WAA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LACK OF SNOW
PACK ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL ALLOW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. EAST OF THE MISSOURI SOME
SNOW REMAINS SO HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT THERE. ONE CONCERN
FOR HIGHS TODAY IS THE LACK OF A DECENT MIXING WIND (AS WE SAW
MONDAY)...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS (WHICH MODELS
ARE NOT DEPICTING VERY WELL AT THE MOMENT. REGARDLESS WE SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO BREAK RECORDS FOR DICKINSON...WILLISTON...AND
BISMARCK. BELOW IS A TABLE COMPARING FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WITH
RECORD HIGHS (JANUARY 27).

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         61           51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         54           47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          56           48 IN 2008
MINOT             50           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         44           47 IN 1989

CAA BEGINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FROM
CANADA WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. MODELS INDICATING LOW STRATUS ACCOMPANYING THE CAA SO
INCREASED SKY COVER. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ON WEDNESDAY TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
INDUCE A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WE BEGIN
THE DAY QUITE MILD WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S...AND
WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE 40S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. THE COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE
MID LEVEL FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW OVER THE FAR
FAR NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WE THEN SEE A BRIEF WARM-UP THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT ACCOMPANIES THE SURGE OF COLD
AIR AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR MINIMAL BUT WE DID INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY.

THE FAR WEST MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL SOUTHWEST TO WELL BELOW NORMAL NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

OVERALL...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD. BETWEEN NOW AND 14Z...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KJMS
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT...BUT PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION. INCREASING LOW STRATUS EXPECTED NEAR THE END OF THE
12Z PERIOD FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RIVER AND STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
BASIN TODAY RESULTING FROM SNOW MELT AND RECENT PRECIPITATION ON
FROZEN SOILS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF
ITSELF...SOME ICE BREAK UP MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO ICE JAMS AND TEMPORARY
HIGH WATER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271451
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
851 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING FOG WORDING
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO BE ON TARGET TO
BREAK RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER A BIT WEST WITH QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOWER STRATUS/FOG
HAS REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT LOWER TEMPERATURE
DEWPOINT SPREADS REMAIN FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. REMOVED PATCHY FOR FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA
THROUGH 14 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RECORD HIGHS
TODAY.

CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL WAA SPREADING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WILL
MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG WORDING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COUNTIES WITH LOW T/TD SPREADS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY COUPLED
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE MONTANA/WYOMING
ROCKIES. THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING WAA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LACK OF SNOW
PACK ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL ALLOW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. EAST OF THE MISSOURI SOME
SNOW REMAINS SO HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT THERE. ONE CONCERN
FOR HIGHS TODAY IS THE LACK OF A DECENT MIXING WIND (AS WE SAW
MONDAY)...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS (WHICH MODELS
ARE NOT DEPICTING VERY WELL AT THE MOMENT. REGARDLESS WE SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO BREAK RECORDS FOR DICKINSON...WILLISTON...AND
BISMARCK. BELOW IS A TABLE COMPARING FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WITH
RECORD HIGHS (JANUARY 27).

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         61           51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         54           47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          56           48 IN 2008
MINOT             50           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         44           47 IN 1989

CAA BEGINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FROM
CANADA WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. MODELS INDICATING LOW STRATUS ACCOMPANYING THE CAA SO
INCREASED SKY COVER. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ON WEDNESDAY TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
INDUCE A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WE BEGIN
THE DAY QUITE MILD WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S...AND
WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE 40S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. THE COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE
MID LEVEL FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW OVER THE FAR
FAR NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WE THEN SEE A BRIEF WARM-UP THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT ACCOMPANIES THE SURGE OF COLD
AIR AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR MINIMAL BUT WE DID INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY.

THE FAR WEST MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL SOUTHWEST TO WELL BELOW NORMAL NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

OVERALL...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD. BETWEEN NOW AND 14Z...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KJMS
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT...BUT PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION. INCREASING LOW STRATUS EXPECTED NEAR THE END OF THE
12Z PERIOD FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RIVER AND STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
BASIN TODAY RESULTING FROM SNOW MELT AND RECENT PRECIPITATION ON
FROZEN SOILS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF
ITSELF...SOME ICE BREAK UP MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO ICE JAMS AND TEMPORARY
HIGH WATER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 271242
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER A BIT WEST WITH QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOWER STRATUS/FOG
HAS REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT LOWER TEMPERATURE
DEWPOINT SPREADS REMAIN FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. REMOVED PATCHY FOR FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA
THROUGH 14 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RECORD HIGHS
TODAY.

CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL WAA SPREADING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WILL
MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG WORDING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COUNTIES WITH LOW T/TD SPREADS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY COUPLED
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE MONTANA/WYOMING
ROCKIES. THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING WAA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LACK OF SNOW
PACK ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL ALLOW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. EAST OF THE MISSOURI SOME
SNOW REMAINS SO HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT THERE. ONE CONCERN
FOR HIGHS TODAY IS THE LACK OF A DECENT MIXING WIND (AS WE SAW
MONDAY)...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS (WHICH MODELS
ARE NOT DEPICTING VERY WELL AT THE MOMENT. REGARDLESS WE SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO BREAK RECORDS FOR DICKINSON...WILLISTON...AND
BISMARCK. BELOW IS A TABLE COMPARING FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WITH
RECORD HIGHS (JANUARY 27).

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         61           51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         54           47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          56           48 IN 2008
MINOT             50           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         44           47 IN 1989

CAA BEGINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FROM
CANADA WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. MODELS INDICATING LOW STRATUS ACCOMPANYING THE CAA SO
INCREASED SKY COVER. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ON WEDNESDAY TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
INDUCE A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WE BEGIN
THE DAY QUITE MILD WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S...AND
WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE 40S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. THE COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE
MID LEVEL FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW OVER THE FAR
FAR NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WE THEN SEE A BRIEF WARM-UP THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT ACCOMPANIES THE SURGE OF COLD
AIR AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR MINIMAL BUT WE DID INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY.

THE FAR WEST MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL SOUTHWEST TO WELL BELOW NORMAL NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

OVERALL...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD. BETWEEN NOW AND 14Z...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KJMS
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT...BUT PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION. INCREASING LOW STRATUS EXPECTED NEAR THE END OF THE
12Z PERIOD FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RIVER AND STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
BASIN TODAY RESULTING FROM SNOW MELT AND RECENT PRECIPITATION ON
FROZEN SOILS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF
ITSELF...SOME ICE BREAK UP MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO ICE JAMS AND TEMPORARY
HIGH WATER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271242
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER A BIT WEST WITH QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOWER STRATUS/FOG
HAS REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT LOWER TEMPERATURE
DEWPOINT SPREADS REMAIN FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. REMOVED PATCHY FOR FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA
THROUGH 14 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RECORD HIGHS
TODAY.

CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL WAA SPREADING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WILL
MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG WORDING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COUNTIES WITH LOW T/TD SPREADS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY COUPLED
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE MONTANA/WYOMING
ROCKIES. THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING WAA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LACK OF SNOW
PACK ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL ALLOW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. EAST OF THE MISSOURI SOME
SNOW REMAINS SO HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT THERE. ONE CONCERN
FOR HIGHS TODAY IS THE LACK OF A DECENT MIXING WIND (AS WE SAW
MONDAY)...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS (WHICH MODELS
ARE NOT DEPICTING VERY WELL AT THE MOMENT. REGARDLESS WE SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO BREAK RECORDS FOR DICKINSON...WILLISTON...AND
BISMARCK. BELOW IS A TABLE COMPARING FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WITH
RECORD HIGHS (JANUARY 27).

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         61           51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         54           47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          56           48 IN 2008
MINOT             50           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         44           47 IN 1989

CAA BEGINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FROM
CANADA WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. MODELS INDICATING LOW STRATUS ACCOMPANYING THE CAA SO
INCREASED SKY COVER. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ON WEDNESDAY TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
INDUCE A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WE BEGIN
THE DAY QUITE MILD WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S...AND
WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE 40S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. THE COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE
MID LEVEL FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW OVER THE FAR
FAR NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WE THEN SEE A BRIEF WARM-UP THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT ACCOMPANIES THE SURGE OF COLD
AIR AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR MINIMAL BUT WE DID INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY.

THE FAR WEST MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL SOUTHWEST TO WELL BELOW NORMAL NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

OVERALL...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD. BETWEEN NOW AND 14Z...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KJMS
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT...BUT PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION. INCREASING LOW STRATUS EXPECTED NEAR THE END OF THE
12Z PERIOD FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RIVER AND STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
BASIN TODAY RESULTING FROM SNOW MELT AND RECENT PRECIPITATION ON
FROZEN SOILS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF
ITSELF...SOME ICE BREAK UP MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO ICE JAMS AND TEMPORARY
HIGH WATER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 270906
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
306 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RECORD HIGHS
TODAY.

CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL WAA SPREADING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WILL
MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG WORDING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COUNTIES WITH LOW T/TD SPREADS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY COUPLED
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE MONTANA/WYOMING
ROCKIES. THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING WAA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LACK OF SNOW
PACK ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL ALLOW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. EAST OF THE MISSOURI SOME
SNOW REMAINS SO HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT THERE. ONE CONCERN
FOR HIGHS TODAY IS THE LACK OF A DECENT MIXING WIND (AS WE SAW
MONDAY)...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS (WHICH MODELS
ARE NOT DEPICTING VERY WELL AT THE MOMENT. REGARDLESS WE SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO BREAK RECORDS FOR DICKINSON...WILLISTON...AND
BISMARCK. BELOW IS A TABLE COMPARING FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WITH
RECORD HIGHS (JANUARY 27).

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         61           51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         54           47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          56           48 IN 2008
MINOT             50           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         44           47 IN 1989

CAA BEGINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FROM
CANADA WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. MODELS INDICATING LOW STRATUS ACCOMPANYING THE CAA SO
INCREASED SKY COVER. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TONIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ON WEDNESDAY TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
INDUCE A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WE BEGIN
THE DAY QUITE MILD WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S...AND
WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE 40S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. THE COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE
MID LEVEL FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW OVER THE FAR
FAR NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WE THEN SEE A BRIEF WARM-UP THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT ACCOMPANIES THE SURGE OF COLD
AIR AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR MINIMAL BUT WE DID INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY.

THE FAR WEST MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL SOUTHWEST TO WELL BELOW NORMAL NORTHEAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

OVERALL...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
EASTERN TERMINALS INCLUDING KJMS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD
SNOW MELT. INCREASING LOW STRATUS EXPECTED NEAR THE END OF THE 06Z
PERIOD FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RIVER AND STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
BASIN TODAY RESULTING FROM SNOW MELT AND RECENT PRECIPITATION ON
FROZEN SOILS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF
ITSELF...SOME ICE BREAK UP MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO ICE JAMS AND TEMPORARY
HIGH WATER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 270906
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
306 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RECORD HIGHS
TODAY.

CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL WAA SPREADING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WILL
MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG WORDING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COUNTIES WITH LOW T/TD SPREADS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY COUPLED
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE MONTANA/WYOMING
ROCKIES. THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING WAA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LACK OF SNOW
PACK ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL ALLOW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. EAST OF THE MISSOURI SOME
SNOW REMAINS SO HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT THERE. ONE CONCERN
FOR HIGHS TODAY IS THE LACK OF A DECENT MIXING WIND (AS WE SAW
MONDAY)...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS (WHICH MODELS
ARE NOT DEPICTING VERY WELL AT THE MOMENT. REGARDLESS WE SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO BREAK RECORDS FOR DICKINSON...WILLISTON...AND
BISMARCK. BELOW IS A TABLE COMPARING FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WITH
RECORD HIGHS (JANUARY 27).

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         61           51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         54           47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          56           48 IN 2008
MINOT             50           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         44           47 IN 1989

CAA BEGINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FROM
CANADA WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. MODELS INDICATING LOW STRATUS ACCOMPANYING THE CAA SO
INCREASED SKY COVER. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TONIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ON WEDNESDAY TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
INDUCE A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WE BEGIN
THE DAY QUITE MILD WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S...AND
WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE 40S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. THE COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE
MID LEVEL FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW OVER THE FAR
FAR NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WE THEN SEE A BRIEF WARM-UP THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT ACCOMPANIES THE SURGE OF COLD
AIR AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR MINIMAL BUT WE DID INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY.

THE FAR WEST MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL SOUTHWEST TO WELL BELOW NORMAL NORTHEAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

OVERALL...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
EASTERN TERMINALS INCLUDING KJMS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD
SNOW MELT. INCREASING LOW STRATUS EXPECTED NEAR THE END OF THE 06Z
PERIOD FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RIVER AND STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
BASIN TODAY RESULTING FROM SNOW MELT AND RECENT PRECIPITATION ON
FROZEN SOILS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF
ITSELF...SOME ICE BREAK UP MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO ICE JAMS AND TEMPORARY
HIGH WATER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 270640
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1240 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

INHERITED FORECAST ON TRACK SO ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WERE REQUIRED
FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

DID EXPAND FOG WORDING FARTHER WEST AND NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL
LOCATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR AND EAST. T/TD SPREADS
NEARING ZERO MANY LOCATIONS CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH PATCHY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ALREADY ALONG MY EASTERN BORDER.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO FALL NEAR THE FORECAST MINS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL ADJUST TEMPS DOWN THERE ALL THE
WAY WEST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS AT 530 PM CST SHOW A THIN BAND OF CIRRUS
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS HAVE BECOME 5 MPH OR LESS MOST
AREAS. INCORPORATED THE LATEST OBS IN FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SMASH RECORDS WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TUESDAY...

RECORD HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AT WILLISTON AND DICKINSON
THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES AS OF
3 PM CST.

LOCATION          MON HI TEMP  MON HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         51 (RECORD)  49 IN 1931
WILLISTON         50 (RECORD)  47 IN 2006
BISMARCK          50           52 IN 1942
MINOT             45           58 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           52 IN 1990

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PIVOT INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. WITH THE
LACK OF SNOW PACK OVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...THINK THE WARMER TEMPERATURE ALOFT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
MIXING TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SNOW PACK REMAINING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM POWERS LAKE TO
MCCLUSKY TO ASHLEY. THINK THAT THE SNOW PACK EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER WILL TEMPER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED METEOROLOGICAL SETUP...THE FOLLOWING TABLE COMPARES
FORECAST HIGHS WITH RECORD HIGHS ON JANUARY 27.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         61           51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         56           47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          58           48 IN 2008
MINOT             50           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         44           47 IN 1989

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND THE OTHER OVER THE
WYOMING/UTAH/COLORADO AREA. THIS WILL INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A MILD NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER CANADIAN
AIR TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND ALSO CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW. LATE
MORNING HIGHS FROM AROUND 30 NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST...WITH
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 10 ABOVE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST
PRECIPITATION OF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 52
CORRIDOR...FROM KENMARE TO MINOT TO CARRINGTON...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTH AND WEST.

THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ENSUES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FROM THE 20S TO LOWER 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR WEST THE HUDSON BAY LOW (AND ARCTIC AIR)
WILL INTRUDE INTO NORTH DAKOTA. AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

A DRY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE VFR IS EXPECTED...BETWEEN
08Z-15Z PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT EASTERN TERMINALS INCLUDING KJMS
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. WHILE VSBYS ARE
UNCERTAIN...BEGAN WITH 5 MILES AT KJMS BUT IFR CONDITIONS VERY
POSSIBLE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RIVER AND STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
BASIN TODAY RESULTING FROM SNOW MELT AND RECENT PRECIPITATION ON
FROZEN SOILS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF
ITSELF...SOME ICE BREAK UP MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO ICE JAMS AND TEMPORARY
HIGH WATER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 270640
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1240 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

INHERITED FORECAST ON TRACK SO ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WERE REQUIRED
FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

DID EXPAND FOG WORDING FARTHER WEST AND NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL
LOCATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR AND EAST. T/TD SPREADS
NEARING ZERO MANY LOCATIONS CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH PATCHY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ALREADY ALONG MY EASTERN BORDER.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO FALL NEAR THE FORECAST MINS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL ADJUST TEMPS DOWN THERE ALL THE
WAY WEST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS AT 530 PM CST SHOW A THIN BAND OF CIRRUS
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS HAVE BECOME 5 MPH OR LESS MOST
AREAS. INCORPORATED THE LATEST OBS IN FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SMASH RECORDS WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TUESDAY...

RECORD HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AT WILLISTON AND DICKINSON
THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES AS OF
3 PM CST.

LOCATION          MON HI TEMP  MON HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         51 (RECORD)  49 IN 1931
WILLISTON         50 (RECORD)  47 IN 2006
BISMARCK          50           52 IN 1942
MINOT             45           58 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           52 IN 1990

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PIVOT INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. WITH THE
LACK OF SNOW PACK OVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...THINK THE WARMER TEMPERATURE ALOFT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
MIXING TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SNOW PACK REMAINING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM POWERS LAKE TO
MCCLUSKY TO ASHLEY. THINK THAT THE SNOW PACK EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER WILL TEMPER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED METEOROLOGICAL SETUP...THE FOLLOWING TABLE COMPARES
FORECAST HIGHS WITH RECORD HIGHS ON JANUARY 27.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         61           51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         56           47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          58           48 IN 2008
MINOT             50           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         44           47 IN 1989

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND THE OTHER OVER THE
WYOMING/UTAH/COLORADO AREA. THIS WILL INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A MILD NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER CANADIAN
AIR TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND ALSO CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW. LATE
MORNING HIGHS FROM AROUND 30 NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST...WITH
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 10 ABOVE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST
PRECIPITATION OF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 52
CORRIDOR...FROM KENMARE TO MINOT TO CARRINGTON...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTH AND WEST.

THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ENSUES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FROM THE 20S TO LOWER 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR WEST THE HUDSON BAY LOW (AND ARCTIC AIR)
WILL INTRUDE INTO NORTH DAKOTA. AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

A DRY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE VFR IS EXPECTED...BETWEEN
08Z-15Z PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT EASTERN TERMINALS INCLUDING KJMS
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. WHILE VSBYS ARE
UNCERTAIN...BEGAN WITH 5 MILES AT KJMS BUT IFR CONDITIONS VERY
POSSIBLE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RIVER AND STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
BASIN TODAY RESULTING FROM SNOW MELT AND RECENT PRECIPITATION ON
FROZEN SOILS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF
ITSELF...SOME ICE BREAK UP MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO ICE JAMS AND TEMPORARY
HIGH WATER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 270333
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO FALL NEAR THE FORECAST MINS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL ADJUST TEMPS DOWN THERE ALL THE
WAY WEST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS AT 530 PM CST SHOW A THIN BAND OF CIRRUS
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS HAVE BECOME 5 MPH OR LESS MOST
AREAS. INCORPORATED THE LATEST OBS IN FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SMASH RECORDS WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TUESDAY...

RECORD HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AT WILLISTON AND DICKINSON
THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES AS OF
3 PM CST.

LOCATION          MON HI TEMP  MON HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         51 (RECORD)  49 IN 1931
WILLISTON         50 (RECORD)  47 IN 2006
BISMARCK          50           52 IN 1942
MINOT             45           58 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           52 IN 1990

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PIVOT INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. WITH THE
LACK OF SNOW PACK OVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...THINK THE WARMER TEMPERATURE ALOFT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
MIXING TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SNOW PACK REMAINING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM POWERS LAKE TO
MCCLUSKY TO ASHLEY. THINK THAT THE SNOW PACK EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER WILL TEMPER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED METEOROLOGICAL SETUP...THE FOLLOWING TABLE COMPARES
FORECAST HIGHS WITH RECORD HIGHS ON JANUARY 27.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         61           51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         56           47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          58           48 IN 2008
MINOT             50           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         44           47 IN 1989

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND THE OTHER OVER THE
WYOMING/UTAH/COLORADO AREA. THIS WILL INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A MILD NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER CANADIAN
AIR TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND ALSO CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW. LATE
MORNING HIGHS FROM AROUND 30 NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST...WITH
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 10 ABOVE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST
PRECIPITATION OF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 52
CORRIDOR...FROM KENMARE TO MINOT TO CARRINGTON...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTH AND WEST.

THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ENSUES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FROM THE 20S TO LOWER 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR WEST THE HUDSON BAY LOW (AND ARCTIC AIR)
WILL INTRUDE INTO NORTH DAKOTA. AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A DRY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE VFR IS EXPECTED...BETWEEN
08Z-15Z PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KJMS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND
WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. WHILE VSBYS ARE UNCERTAIN...BEGAN WITH 3
MILES AT KJMS BUT IFR CONDITIONS CANT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RIVER AND STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
BASIN TODAY RESULTING FROM SNOW MELT AND RECENT PRECIPITATION ON
FROZEN SOILS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF
ITSELF...SOME ICE BREAK UP MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO ICE JAMS AND TEMPORARY
HIGH WATER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 270333
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO FALL NEAR THE FORECAST MINS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL ADJUST TEMPS DOWN THERE ALL THE
WAY WEST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS AT 530 PM CST SHOW A THIN BAND OF CIRRUS
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS HAVE BECOME 5 MPH OR LESS MOST
AREAS. INCORPORATED THE LATEST OBS IN FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SMASH RECORDS WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TUESDAY...

RECORD HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AT WILLISTON AND DICKINSON
THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES AS OF
3 PM CST.

LOCATION          MON HI TEMP  MON HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         51 (RECORD)  49 IN 1931
WILLISTON         50 (RECORD)  47 IN 2006
BISMARCK          50           52 IN 1942
MINOT             45           58 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           52 IN 1990

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PIVOT INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. WITH THE
LACK OF SNOW PACK OVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...THINK THE WARMER TEMPERATURE ALOFT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
MIXING TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SNOW PACK REMAINING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM POWERS LAKE TO
MCCLUSKY TO ASHLEY. THINK THAT THE SNOW PACK EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER WILL TEMPER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED METEOROLOGICAL SETUP...THE FOLLOWING TABLE COMPARES
FORECAST HIGHS WITH RECORD HIGHS ON JANUARY 27.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         61           51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         56           47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          58           48 IN 2008
MINOT             50           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         44           47 IN 1989

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND THE OTHER OVER THE
WYOMING/UTAH/COLORADO AREA. THIS WILL INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A MILD NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER CANADIAN
AIR TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND ALSO CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW. LATE
MORNING HIGHS FROM AROUND 30 NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST...WITH
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 10 ABOVE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST
PRECIPITATION OF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 52
CORRIDOR...FROM KENMARE TO MINOT TO CARRINGTON...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTH AND WEST.

THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ENSUES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FROM THE 20S TO LOWER 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR WEST THE HUDSON BAY LOW (AND ARCTIC AIR)
WILL INTRUDE INTO NORTH DAKOTA. AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A DRY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE VFR IS EXPECTED...BETWEEN
08Z-15Z PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KJMS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND
WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. WHILE VSBYS ARE UNCERTAIN...BEGAN WITH 3
MILES AT KJMS BUT IFR CONDITIONS CANT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RIVER AND STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
BASIN TODAY RESULTING FROM SNOW MELT AND RECENT PRECIPITATION ON
FROZEN SOILS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF
ITSELF...SOME ICE BREAK UP MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO ICE JAMS AND TEMPORARY
HIGH WATER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 262352
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
552 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS AT 530 PM CST SHOW A THIN BAND OF CIRRUS
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS HAVE BECOME 5 MPH OR LESS MOST
AREAS. INCORPORATED THE LATEST OBS IN FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SMASH RECORDS WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TUESDAY...

RECORD HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AT WILLISTON AND DICKINSON
THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES AS OF
3 PM CST.

LOCATION          MON HI TEMP  MON HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         51 (RECORD)  49 IN 1931
WILLISTON         50 (RECORD)  47 IN 2006
BISMARCK          50           52 IN 1942
MINOT             45           58 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           52 IN 1990

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PIVOT INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. WITH THE
LACK OF SNOW PACK OVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...THINK THE WARMER TEMPERATURE ALOFT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
MIXING TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SNOW PACK REMAINING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM POWERS LAKE TO
MCCLUSKY TO ASHLEY. THINK THAT THE SNOW PACK EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER WILL TEMPER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED METEOROLOGICAL SETUP...THE FOLLOWING TABLE COMPARES
FORECAST HIGHS WITH RECORD HIGHS ON JANUARY 27.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         61           51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         56           47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          58           48 IN 2008
MINOT             50           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         44           47 IN 1989

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND THE OTHER OVER THE
WYOMING/UTAH/COLORADO AREA. THIS WILL INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A MILD NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER CANADIAN
AIR TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND ALSO CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW. LATE
MORNING HIGHS FROM AROUND 30 NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST...WITH
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 10 ABOVE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST
PRECIPITATION OF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 52
CORRIDOR...FROM KENMARE TO MINOT TO CARRINGTON...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTH AND WEST.

THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ENSUES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FROM THE 20S TO LOWER 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR WEST THE HUDSON BAY LOW (AND ARCTIC AIR)
WILL INTRUDE INTO NORTH DAKOTA. AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A DRY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE VFR IS EXPECTED...BETWEEN
08Z-15Z PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KJMS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND
WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. WHILE VSBYS ARE UNCERTAIN...BEGAN WITH 3
MILES AT KJMS BUT IFR CONDITIONS CANT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RIVER AND STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
BASIN TODAY RESULTING FROM SNOW MELT AND RECENT PRECIPITATION ON
FROZEN SOILS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF
ITSELF...SOME ICE BREAK UP MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO ICE JAMS AND TEMPORARY
HIGH WATER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 262352
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
552 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS AT 530 PM CST SHOW A THIN BAND OF CIRRUS
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS HAVE BECOME 5 MPH OR LESS MOST
AREAS. INCORPORATED THE LATEST OBS IN FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SMASH RECORDS WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TUESDAY...

RECORD HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AT WILLISTON AND DICKINSON
THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES AS OF
3 PM CST.

LOCATION          MON HI TEMP  MON HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         51 (RECORD)  49 IN 1931
WILLISTON         50 (RECORD)  47 IN 2006
BISMARCK          50           52 IN 1942
MINOT             45           58 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           52 IN 1990

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PIVOT INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. WITH THE
LACK OF SNOW PACK OVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...THINK THE WARMER TEMPERATURE ALOFT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
MIXING TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SNOW PACK REMAINING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM POWERS LAKE TO
MCCLUSKY TO ASHLEY. THINK THAT THE SNOW PACK EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER WILL TEMPER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED METEOROLOGICAL SETUP...THE FOLLOWING TABLE COMPARES
FORECAST HIGHS WITH RECORD HIGHS ON JANUARY 27.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         61           51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         56           47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          58           48 IN 2008
MINOT             50           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         44           47 IN 1989

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND THE OTHER OVER THE
WYOMING/UTAH/COLORADO AREA. THIS WILL INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A MILD NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER CANADIAN
AIR TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND ALSO CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW. LATE
MORNING HIGHS FROM AROUND 30 NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST...WITH
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 10 ABOVE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST
PRECIPITATION OF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 52
CORRIDOR...FROM KENMARE TO MINOT TO CARRINGTON...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTH AND WEST.

THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ENSUES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FROM THE 20S TO LOWER 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR WEST THE HUDSON BAY LOW (AND ARCTIC AIR)
WILL INTRUDE INTO NORTH DAKOTA. AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A DRY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE VFR IS EXPECTED...BETWEEN
08Z-15Z PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KJMS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND
WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. WHILE VSBYS ARE UNCERTAIN...BEGAN WITH 3
MILES AT KJMS BUT IFR CONDITIONS CANT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RIVER AND STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
BASIN TODAY RESULTING FROM SNOW MELT AND RECENT PRECIPITATION ON
FROZEN SOILS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF
ITSELF...SOME ICE BREAK UP MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO ICE JAMS AND TEMPORARY
HIGH WATER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 262116
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SMASH RECORDS WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TUESDAY...

RECORD HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AT WILLISTON AND DICKINSON
THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES AS OF
3 PM CST.

LOCATION          MON HI TEMP  MON HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         51 (RECORD)  49 IN 1931
WILLISTON         50 (RECORD)  47 IN 2006
BISMARCK          50           52 IN 1942
MINOT             45           58 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           52 IN 1990

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PIVOT INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. WITH THE
LACK OF SNOW PACK OVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...THINK THE WARMER TEMPERATURE ALOFT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
MIXING TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SNOW PACK REMAINING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM POWERS LAKE TO
MCCLUSKY TO ASHLEY. THINK THAT THE SNOW PACK EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER WILL TEMPER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED METEOROLOGICAL SETUP...THE FOLLOWING TABLE COMPARES
FORECAST HIGHS WITH RECORD HIGHS ON JANUARY 27.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         61           51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         56           47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          58           48 IN 2008
MINOT             50           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         44           47 IN 1989

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND THE OTHER OVER THE
WYOMING/UTAH/COLORADO AREA. THIS WILL INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A MILD NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER CANADIAN
AIR TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND ALSO CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW. LATE
MORNING HIGHS FROM AROUND 30 NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST...WITH
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 10 ABOVE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST
PRECIPITATION OF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 52
CORRIDOR...FROM KENMARE TO MINOT TO CARRINGTON...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTH AND WEST.

THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ENSUES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FROM THE 20S TO LOWER 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR WEST THE HUDSON BAY LOW (AND ARCTIC AIR)
WILL INTRUDE INTO NORTH DAKOTA. AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RIVER AND STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
BASIN TODAY RESULTING FROM SNOW MELT AND RECENT PRECIPITATION ON
FROZEN SOILS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF
ITSELF...SOME ICE BREAK UP MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO ICE JAMS AND TEMPORARY
HIGH WATER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TM
HYDROLOGY...AJS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 261745
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1145 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP NICELY WITH RECORD BREAKING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED WEST THIS AFTERNOON. BISMARCK WILL BE
CLOSE TO ITS RECORD HIGH OF 52 TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AFTERNOON TRENDS AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

ONLY ADJUSTED HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH RECORD
BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TODAY AND TUESDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC...WITH RECORD HIGHS STILL ON
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE VERY
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY SOUTHWEST AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL.

CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH TROUGHING EAST AND RIDGING
WEST. WEAK CAA FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA. AS THIS OCCURS GRADIENT FORCING
INCREASES THROUGH THE AM HOURS RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS
BREEZY AT TIMES. DESPITE THE CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISING IN THE 30S FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING
THANKS TO THIS STEADY MIXING WIND AND A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK.

QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY. TEMPERATURES MILD EITHER SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...JUST MORE-SO SOUTHWEST WHERE RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL WAA ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. HIGHS SOUTHWEST WILL RISE THROUGH THE MID TO
UPPER 50S...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BREAK RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY
THERE. RECORDS MAY ALSO FALL NORTHWEST BUT SHOULD BE PRESERVED
ELSEWHERE. SEE TABLE BELOW:

LOCATION          MON HI TEMP  MON HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         53           49 IN 1931
WILLISTON         47           47 IN 2006
BISMARCK          48           52 IN 1942
MINOT             44           58 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         42           52 IN 1990

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER WARM/RECORD BREAKING DAY FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC NAEFS CONTINUES ITS TREND OF 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
99TH TO 99.5TH PERCENTILES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH BARE GROUND...THIS SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE 50S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. CERTAINLY CANNOT
RULE OUT A 60 DEGREE READING FAR SOUTHWEST. SHOWN BELOW ARE THE
FORECAST HIGHS AND RECORDS FOR TUESDAY.

LOCATION......TUESDAY FORECAST......TUESDAY RECORD

DICKINSON..........58..........51 IN 2008
BISMARCK...........51..........48 IN 2008
WILLISTON..........51..........47 IN 1931
MINOT..............45..........55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN..........43..........47 IN 1989

THEREAFTER...A DE-AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD MARK A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST 00 UTC ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
SUITES ARE IN A BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR WEST ARCTIC AIR
WILL INTRUDE INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RIVER AND STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
BASIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...RESULTING FROM SNOW MELT
AND RECENT PRECIPITATION ON FROZEN SOILS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF ITSELF...SOME ICE BREAK UP MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD
TO ICE JAMS AND TEMPORARY HIGH WATER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM
HYDROLOGY...AYD





000
FXUS63 KBIS 261745
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1145 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP NICELY WITH RECORD BREAKING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED WEST THIS AFTERNOON. BISMARCK WILL BE
CLOSE TO ITS RECORD HIGH OF 52 TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AFTERNOON TRENDS AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

ONLY ADJUSTED HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH RECORD
BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TODAY AND TUESDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC...WITH RECORD HIGHS STILL ON
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE VERY
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY SOUTHWEST AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL.

CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH TROUGHING EAST AND RIDGING
WEST. WEAK CAA FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA. AS THIS OCCURS GRADIENT FORCING
INCREASES THROUGH THE AM HOURS RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS
BREEZY AT TIMES. DESPITE THE CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISING IN THE 30S FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING
THANKS TO THIS STEADY MIXING WIND AND A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK.

QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY. TEMPERATURES MILD EITHER SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...JUST MORE-SO SOUTHWEST WHERE RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL WAA ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. HIGHS SOUTHWEST WILL RISE THROUGH THE MID TO
UPPER 50S...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BREAK RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY
THERE. RECORDS MAY ALSO FALL NORTHWEST BUT SHOULD BE PRESERVED
ELSEWHERE. SEE TABLE BELOW:

LOCATION          MON HI TEMP  MON HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         53           49 IN 1931
WILLISTON         47           47 IN 2006
BISMARCK          48           52 IN 1942
MINOT             44           58 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         42           52 IN 1990

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER WARM/RECORD BREAKING DAY FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC NAEFS CONTINUES ITS TREND OF 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
99TH TO 99.5TH PERCENTILES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH BARE GROUND...THIS SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE 50S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. CERTAINLY CANNOT
RULE OUT A 60 DEGREE READING FAR SOUTHWEST. SHOWN BELOW ARE THE
FORECAST HIGHS AND RECORDS FOR TUESDAY.

LOCATION......TUESDAY FORECAST......TUESDAY RECORD

DICKINSON..........58..........51 IN 2008
BISMARCK...........51..........48 IN 2008
WILLISTON..........51..........47 IN 1931
MINOT..............45..........55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN..........43..........47 IN 1989

THEREAFTER...A DE-AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD MARK A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST 00 UTC ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
SUITES ARE IN A BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR WEST ARCTIC AIR
WILL INTRUDE INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RIVER AND STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
BASIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...RESULTING FROM SNOW MELT
AND RECENT PRECIPITATION ON FROZEN SOILS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF ITSELF...SOME ICE BREAK UP MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD
TO ICE JAMS AND TEMPORARY HIGH WATER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM
HYDROLOGY...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 261450
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
850 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

ONLY ADJUSTED HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH RECORD
BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TODAY AND TUESDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC...WITH RECORD HIGHS STILL ON
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE VERY
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY SOUTHWEST AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL.

CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH TROUGHING EAST AND RIDGING
WEST. WEAK CAA FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA. AS THIS OCCURS GRADIENT FORCING
INCREASES THROUGH THE AM HOURS RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS
BREEZY AT TIMES. DESPITE THE CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISING IN THE 30S FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING
THANKS TO THIS STEADY MIXING WIND AND A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK.

QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY. TEMPERATURES MILD EITHER SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...JUST MORE-SO SOUTHWEST WHERE RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL WAA ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. HIGHS SOUTHWEST WILL RISE THROUGH THE MID TO
UPPER 50S...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BREAK RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY
THERE. RECORDS MAY ALSO FALL NORTHWEST BUT SHOULD BE PRESERVED
ELSEWHERE. SEE TABLE BELOW:

LOCATION          MON HI TEMP  MON HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         53           49 IN 1931
WILLISTON         47           47 IN 2006
BISMARCK          48           52 IN 1942
MINOT             44           58 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         42           52 IN 1990

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER WARM/RECORD BREAKING DAY FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC NAEFS CONTINUES ITS TREND OF 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
99TH TO 99.5TH PERCENTILES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH BARE GROUND...THIS SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE 50S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. CERTAINLY CANNOT
RULE OUT A 60 DEGREE READING FAR SOUTHWEST. SHOWN BELOW ARE THE
FORECAST HIGHS AND RECORDS FOR TUESDAY.

LOCATION......TUESDAY FORECAST......TUESDAY RECORD

DICKINSON..........58..........51 IN 2008
BISMARCK...........51..........48 IN 2008
WILLISTON..........51..........47 IN 1931
MINOT..............45..........55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN..........43..........47 IN 1989

THEREAFTER...A DE-AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD MARK A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST 00 UTC ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
SUITES ARE IN A BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR WEST ARCTIC AIR
WILL INTRUDE INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE 12 UTC TAF CYCLE. MVFR STRATUS ACROSS
MANITOBA AND EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING MAY BUILD DOWN INTO
KMOT AND KJMS BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RIVER AND STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
BASIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...RESULTING FROM SNOW MELT
AND RECENT PRECIPITATION ON FROZEN SOILS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF ITSELF...SOME ICE BREAK UP MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD
TO ICE JAMS AND TEMPORARY HIGH WATER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 261450
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
850 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

ONLY ADJUSTED HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH RECORD
BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TODAY AND TUESDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC...WITH RECORD HIGHS STILL ON
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE VERY
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY SOUTHWEST AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL.

CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH TROUGHING EAST AND RIDGING
WEST. WEAK CAA FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA. AS THIS OCCURS GRADIENT FORCING
INCREASES THROUGH THE AM HOURS RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS
BREEZY AT TIMES. DESPITE THE CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISING IN THE 30S FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING
THANKS TO THIS STEADY MIXING WIND AND A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK.

QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY. TEMPERATURES MILD EITHER SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...JUST MORE-SO SOUTHWEST WHERE RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL WAA ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. HIGHS SOUTHWEST WILL RISE THROUGH THE MID TO
UPPER 50S...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BREAK RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY
THERE. RECORDS MAY ALSO FALL NORTHWEST BUT SHOULD BE PRESERVED
ELSEWHERE. SEE TABLE BELOW:

LOCATION          MON HI TEMP  MON HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         53           49 IN 1931
WILLISTON         47           47 IN 2006
BISMARCK          48           52 IN 1942
MINOT             44           58 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         42           52 IN 1990

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER WARM/RECORD BREAKING DAY FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC NAEFS CONTINUES ITS TREND OF 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
99TH TO 99.5TH PERCENTILES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH BARE GROUND...THIS SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE 50S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. CERTAINLY CANNOT
RULE OUT A 60 DEGREE READING FAR SOUTHWEST. SHOWN BELOW ARE THE
FORECAST HIGHS AND RECORDS FOR TUESDAY.

LOCATION......TUESDAY FORECAST......TUESDAY RECORD

DICKINSON..........58..........51 IN 2008
BISMARCK...........51..........48 IN 2008
WILLISTON..........51..........47 IN 1931
MINOT..............45..........55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN..........43..........47 IN 1989

THEREAFTER...A DE-AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD MARK A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST 00 UTC ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
SUITES ARE IN A BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR WEST ARCTIC AIR
WILL INTRUDE INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE 12 UTC TAF CYCLE. MVFR STRATUS ACROSS
MANITOBA AND EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING MAY BUILD DOWN INTO
KMOT AND KJMS BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RIVER AND STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
BASIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...RESULTING FROM SNOW MELT
AND RECENT PRECIPITATION ON FROZEN SOILS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF ITSELF...SOME ICE BREAK UP MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD
TO ICE JAMS AND TEMPORARY HIGH WATER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AYD





000
FXUS63 KBIS 261242
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC...WITH RECORD HIGHS STILL ON
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE VERY
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY SOUTHWEST AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL.

CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH TROUGHING EAST AND RIDGING
WEST. WEAK CAA FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA. AS THIS OCCURS GRADIENT FORCING
INCREASES THROUGH THE AM HOURS RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS
BREEZY AT TIMES. DESPITE THE CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISING IN THE 30S FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING
THANKS TO THIS STEADY MIXING WIND AND A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK.

QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY. TEMPERATURES MILD EITHER SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...JUST MORE-SO SOUTHWEST WHERE RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL WAA ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. HIGHS SOUTHWEST WILL RISE THROUGH THE MID TO
UPPER 50S...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BREAK RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY
THERE. RECORDS MAY ALSO FALL NORTHWEST BUT SHOULD BE PRESERVED
ELSEWHERE. SEE TABLE BELOW:

LOCATION          MON HI TEMP  MON HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         53           49 IN 1931
WILLISTON         47           47 IN 2006
BISMARCK          48           52 IN 1942
MINOT             44           58 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         42           52 IN 1990

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER WARM/RECORD BREAKING DAY FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC NAEFS CONTINUES ITS TREND OF 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
99TH TO 99.5TH PERCENTILES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH BARE GROUND...THIS SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE 50S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. CERTAINLY CANNOT
RULE OUT A 60 DEGREE READING FAR SOUTHWEST. SHOWN BELOW ARE THE
FORECAST HIGHS AND RECORDS FOR TUESDAY.

LOCATION......TUESDAY FORECAST......TUESDAY RECORD

DICKINSON..........58..........51 IN 2008
BISMARCK...........51..........48 IN 2008
WILLISTON..........51..........47 IN 1931
MINOT..............45..........55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN..........43..........47 IN 1989

THEREAFTER...A DE-AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD MARK A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST 00 UTC ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
SUITES ARE IN A BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR WEST ARCTIC AIR
WILL INTRUDE INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE 12 UTC TAF CYCLE. MVFR STRATUS ACROSS
MANITOBA AND EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING MAY BUILD DOWN INTO
KMOT AND KJMS BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RIVER AND STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
BASIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...RESULTING FROM SNOW MELT
AND RECENT PRECIPITATION ON FROZEN SOILS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF ITSELF...SOME ICE BREAK UP MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD
TO ICE JAMS AND TEMPORARY HIGH WATER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 261242
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC...WITH RECORD HIGHS STILL ON
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE VERY
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY SOUTHWEST AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL.

CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH TROUGHING EAST AND RIDGING
WEST. WEAK CAA FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA. AS THIS OCCURS GRADIENT FORCING
INCREASES THROUGH THE AM HOURS RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS
BREEZY AT TIMES. DESPITE THE CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR RISING IN THE 30S FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING
THANKS TO THIS STEADY MIXING WIND AND A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK.

QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY. TEMPERATURES MILD EITHER SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...JUST MORE-SO SOUTHWEST WHERE RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL WAA ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. HIGHS SOUTHWEST WILL RISE THROUGH THE MID TO
UPPER 50S...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BREAK RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY
THERE. RECORDS MAY ALSO FALL NORTHWEST BUT SHOULD BE PRESERVED
ELSEWHERE. SEE TABLE BELOW:

LOCATION          MON HI TEMP  MON HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         53           49 IN 1931
WILLISTON         47           47 IN 2006
BISMARCK          48           52 IN 1942
MINOT             44           58 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         42           52 IN 1990

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER WARM/RECORD BREAKING DAY FOR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC NAEFS CONTINUES ITS TREND OF 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
99TH TO 99.5TH PERCENTILES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH BARE GROUND...THIS SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE 50S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. CERTAINLY CANNOT
RULE OUT A 60 DEGREE READING FAR SOUTHWEST. SHOWN BELOW ARE THE
FORECAST HIGHS AND RECORDS FOR TUESDAY.

LOCATION......TUESDAY FORECAST......TUESDAY RECORD

DICKINSON..........58..........51 IN 2008
BISMARCK...........51..........48 IN 2008
WILLISTON..........51..........47 IN 1931
MINOT..............45..........55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN..........43..........47 IN 1989

THEREAFTER...A DE-AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD MARK A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST 00 UTC ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
SUITES ARE IN A BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR WEST ARCTIC AIR
WILL INTRUDE INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE 12 UTC TAF CYCLE. MVFR STRATUS ACROSS
MANITOBA AND EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING MAY BUILD DOWN INTO
KMOT AND KJMS BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RIVER AND STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
BASIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...RESULTING FROM SNOW MELT
AND RECENT PRECIPITATION ON FROZEN SOILS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF ITSELF...SOME ICE BREAK UP MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD
TO ICE JAMS AND TEMPORARY HIGH WATER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AYD







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