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000
FXUS63 KBIS 240041
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND KEPT IT GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE ADVISORY MAY BE
ALLOWED TO BE DROPPED BY 03 UTC...AS NEARLY ALL STATIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD IN GUSTS. ALSO...DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IN A HIGH POP...LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW...WITH EMBEDDED OCCASIONAL
IFR VISIBILITIES AS OF 00 UTC THIS EVENING...WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
AT KISN AND KDIK. HOWEVER...KBIS/KJMS/KMOT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IMPACTED BY THE STRATUS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ019>023-033>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 240041
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND KEPT IT GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE ADVISORY MAY BE
ALLOWED TO BE DROPPED BY 03 UTC...AS NEARLY ALL STATIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD IN GUSTS. ALSO...DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IN A HIGH POP...LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW...WITH EMBEDDED OCCASIONAL
IFR VISIBILITIES AS OF 00 UTC THIS EVENING...WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
AT KISN AND KDIK. HOWEVER...KBIS/KJMS/KMOT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IMPACTED BY THE STRATUS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ019>023-033>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 232200
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MVFR
IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT ALL BUT JAMES RIVER VALLEY. KJMS IMPVG
TO VFR AFTER 14Z. WINDS AND SNOW DIMINISHING AND ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-033>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KBIS 232200
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MVFR
IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT ALL BUT JAMES RIVER VALLEY. KJMS IMPVG
TO VFR AFTER 14Z. WINDS AND SNOW DIMINISHING AND ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-033>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA










000
FXUS63 KBIS 232200
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MVFR
IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT ALL BUT JAMES RIVER VALLEY. KJMS IMPVG
TO VFR AFTER 14Z. WINDS AND SNOW DIMINISHING AND ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-033>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KBIS 231841
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1241 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED BACK POPS AGAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH. WINDS BEHIND THE
PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE DROPPING OFF A BIT. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP A
PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEW NAM IS TRENDING
LOWER. ALSO TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW COVER
SOUTHWEST IS TOO CRUSTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
BOWBELLS AND MOHALL. COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATUS HAS DROPPED SOUTH TO COVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAISED SKY COVER TO
CLOUDY MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AT 18Z. COLD FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND END TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ALSO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 231841
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1241 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED BACK POPS AGAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH. WINDS BEHIND THE
PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE DROPPING OFF A BIT. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP A
PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEW NAM IS TRENDING
LOWER. ALSO TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW COVER
SOUTHWEST IS TOO CRUSTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
BOWBELLS AND MOHALL. COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATUS HAS DROPPED SOUTH TO COVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAISED SKY COVER TO
CLOUDY MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AT 18Z. COLD FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND END TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ALSO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 231551
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEW NAM IS TRENDING
LOWER. ALSO TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW COVER
SOUTHWEST IS TOO CRUSTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
BOWBELLS AND MOHALL. COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATUS HAS DROPPED SOUTH TO COVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAISED SKY COVER TO
CLOUDY MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER THE
MANITOBA AT 15Z WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING. MVFR LEVEL CIGS AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS MORNING TO KBIS/KJMS. BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW KISN-KMOT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
40 KNOTS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 231551
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEW NAM IS TRENDING
LOWER. ALSO TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW COVER
SOUTHWEST IS TOO CRUSTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
BOWBELLS AND MOHALL. COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATUS HAS DROPPED SOUTH TO COVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAISED SKY COVER TO
CLOUDY MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER THE
MANITOBA AT 15Z WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING. MVFR LEVEL CIGS AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS MORNING TO KBIS/KJMS. BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW KISN-KMOT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
40 KNOTS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 231551
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEW NAM IS TRENDING
LOWER. ALSO TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW COVER
SOUTHWEST IS TOO CRUSTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
BOWBELLS AND MOHALL. COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATUS HAS DROPPED SOUTH TO COVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAISED SKY COVER TO
CLOUDY MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER THE
MANITOBA AT 15Z WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING. MVFR LEVEL CIGS AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS MORNING TO KBIS/KJMS. BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW KISN-KMOT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
40 KNOTS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 231551
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEW NAM IS TRENDING
LOWER. ALSO TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW COVER
SOUTHWEST IS TOO CRUSTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
BOWBELLS AND MOHALL. COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATUS HAS DROPPED SOUTH TO COVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAISED SKY COVER TO
CLOUDY MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER THE
MANITOBA AT 15Z WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING. MVFR LEVEL CIGS AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS MORNING TO KBIS/KJMS. BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW KISN-KMOT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
40 KNOTS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 231242
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
BOWBELLS AND MOHALL. COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATUS HAS DROPPED SOUTH TO COVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAISED SKY COVER TO
CLOUDY MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER THE
MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AT 12Z WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE THIS MORNING. MVFR LEVEL CIGS AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS MORNING TO KBIS/KJMS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-
036-037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 230945
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM KBIS TO KJMS
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INITIALLY...HOWEVER MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT KISN AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE AT KISN AROUND 09Z...AND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED
WITH MVFR CIGS SUNDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-
036-037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 230945
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM KBIS TO KJMS
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INITIALLY...HOWEVER MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT KISN AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE AT KISN AROUND 09Z...AND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED
WITH MVFR CIGS SUNDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-
036-037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 230945
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM KBIS TO KJMS
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INITIALLY...HOWEVER MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT KISN AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE AT KISN AROUND 09Z...AND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED
WITH MVFR CIGS SUNDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-
036-037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 230945
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM KBIS TO KJMS
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INITIALLY...HOWEVER MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT KISN AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE AT KISN AROUND 09Z...AND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED
WITH MVFR CIGS SUNDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-
036-037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 230654
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1254 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS BEEN THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS
UPDATE.

VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN NEAR REGINA. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED
WESTWARD/SOUTHWESTWARD AND REMAINED JUST NORTH OF THE MONTANA
BORDER. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN. WINDS IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE WESTERLY AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES F. MEANWHILE LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. ATTEMPTING
TO FORECAST THE HOUR BY HOUR TEMPERATURES IN THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN
CHALLENGING. TO MAKE THINGS MORE COMPLICATED...AN AREA OF RADAR
RETURNS WITH PRESUMED LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR VIRGA CONTINUES ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS AREA
APPROACHES...TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN AS WELL. LIKELY RAIN OVER THE
BULK OF THE RADAR RETURN AREA...HOWEVER THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AREA
MAY BE BRIEF FREEZING RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION APPROACHES ALREADY
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE AIR.

OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES THIS UPDATE...AND AWAIT THE COLD FRONT AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE RAIN
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE HAS MOVED EAST AND OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A CONCERN WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO SOME LOCATIONS...BUT
COMPLICATING THE MATTER IS THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE TENDED TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. OVERALL...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MODEL QPF REMAINING LOW FROM THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS.
DID NOT MAKE ANY LARGE SCALE CHANGES WITH MOST ADJUSTMENTS TO
CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR...WITH OTHER LIGHT ECHOES SHOWN BY AREA RADARS
IN EASTERN MONTANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE
HRRR...SUPPORT A GENERAL DECLINE IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IN
EASTERN MONTANA EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. HAVE GENERALLY DECEASED POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM IN PARTS
OF THE NORTHWEST...AND TRIED TO SURROUND THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
IN THE CENTRAL WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN A TRACE TO 0.01...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THIS EVENING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE GOOD NEWS IS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
A SLOW TEMPERATURE DECLINE...SO CURRENT THINKING IS ANY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING / TONIGHT. MODEL QPF IS LIGHT...SO AGAIN THINKING IS
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM CHALLENGE INVOLVES WINTER WEATHER AND WINDS. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS ALBERTA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WILL SOME SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE WEST. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
CHANCES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
NORTH. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING WINDS. DEBATED THE MERITS OF A
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE 1 OR
2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER DECIDED FOR A WIND ADVISORY
AS SUFFICIENT SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW. WILL BREAK OFF THE NORTHERN
PORTION...ALONG HIGHWAY 2 AND NORTH AND MENTION SOME SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL
BE BLUSTERY WITH SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BE 25
TO 45 MPH. WAS CONCERNED ABOUT A 9-11 MB PRESSURE RISE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. COULD GET SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO ROLLA. SUNDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST CENTRAL AND MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED FOR MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...NOW TRENDING BACK COLDER AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SHOWED A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC
IMPACT ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES.

REMOVED SNOW MENTION FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN
MODELS DEPICT A SUBTLE EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS REPEATS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES DO
REBOUND TUESDAY AS SOME WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.

TRENDED THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY COLDER WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHWEST VERSUS ZONAL.

OF MAIN INTEREST AND A RECENT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA (POSSIBLY OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE)...WHICH WOULD CREATE IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL. BOTH THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC ARE PLACEMENT...WITH
THE GFS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST GIVING A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MODEL FLIP FLOPS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THE 12Z GEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN ANY PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM KBIS TO KJMS
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INITIALLY...HOWEVER MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT KISN AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE AT KISN AROUND 09Z...AND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED
WITH MVFR CIGS SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 230654
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1254 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS BEEN THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS
UPDATE.

VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN NEAR REGINA. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED
WESTWARD/SOUTHWESTWARD AND REMAINED JUST NORTH OF THE MONTANA
BORDER. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN. WINDS IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE WESTERLY AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES F. MEANWHILE LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. ATTEMPTING
TO FORECAST THE HOUR BY HOUR TEMPERATURES IN THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN
CHALLENGING. TO MAKE THINGS MORE COMPLICATED...AN AREA OF RADAR
RETURNS WITH PRESUMED LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR VIRGA CONTINUES ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS AREA
APPROACHES...TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN AS WELL. LIKELY RAIN OVER THE
BULK OF THE RADAR RETURN AREA...HOWEVER THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AREA
MAY BE BRIEF FREEZING RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION APPROACHES ALREADY
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE AIR.

OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES THIS UPDATE...AND AWAIT THE COLD FRONT AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE RAIN
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE HAS MOVED EAST AND OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A CONCERN WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO SOME LOCATIONS...BUT
COMPLICATING THE MATTER IS THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE TENDED TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. OVERALL...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MODEL QPF REMAINING LOW FROM THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS.
DID NOT MAKE ANY LARGE SCALE CHANGES WITH MOST ADJUSTMENTS TO
CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR...WITH OTHER LIGHT ECHOES SHOWN BY AREA RADARS
IN EASTERN MONTANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE
HRRR...SUPPORT A GENERAL DECLINE IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IN
EASTERN MONTANA EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. HAVE GENERALLY DECEASED POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM IN PARTS
OF THE NORTHWEST...AND TRIED TO SURROUND THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
IN THE CENTRAL WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN A TRACE TO 0.01...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THIS EVENING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE GOOD NEWS IS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
A SLOW TEMPERATURE DECLINE...SO CURRENT THINKING IS ANY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING / TONIGHT. MODEL QPF IS LIGHT...SO AGAIN THINKING IS
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM CHALLENGE INVOLVES WINTER WEATHER AND WINDS. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS ALBERTA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WILL SOME SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE WEST. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
CHANCES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
NORTH. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING WINDS. DEBATED THE MERITS OF A
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE 1 OR
2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER DECIDED FOR A WIND ADVISORY
AS SUFFICIENT SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW. WILL BREAK OFF THE NORTHERN
PORTION...ALONG HIGHWAY 2 AND NORTH AND MENTION SOME SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL
BE BLUSTERY WITH SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BE 25
TO 45 MPH. WAS CONCERNED ABOUT A 9-11 MB PRESSURE RISE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. COULD GET SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO ROLLA. SUNDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST CENTRAL AND MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED FOR MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...NOW TRENDING BACK COLDER AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SHOWED A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC
IMPACT ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES.

REMOVED SNOW MENTION FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN
MODELS DEPICT A SUBTLE EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS REPEATS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES DO
REBOUND TUESDAY AS SOME WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.

TRENDED THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY COLDER WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHWEST VERSUS ZONAL.

OF MAIN INTEREST AND A RECENT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA (POSSIBLY OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE)...WHICH WOULD CREATE IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL. BOTH THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC ARE PLACEMENT...WITH
THE GFS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST GIVING A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MODEL FLIP FLOPS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THE 12Z GEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN ANY PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM KBIS TO KJMS
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INITIALLY...HOWEVER MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT KISN AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE AT KISN AROUND 09Z...AND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED
WITH MVFR CIGS SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 230356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE RAIN
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE HAS MOVED EAST AND OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A CONCERN WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO SOME LOCATIONS...BUT
COMPLICATING THE MATTER IS THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE TENDED TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. OVERALL...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MODEL QPF REMAINING LOW FROM THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS.
DID NOT MAKE ANY LARGE SCALE CHANGES WITH MOST ADJUSTMENTS TO
CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR...WITH OTHER LIGHT ECHOES SHOWN BY AREA RADARS
IN EASTERN MONTANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE
HRRR...SUPPORT A GENERAL DECLINE IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IN
EASTERN MONTANA EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. HAVE GENERALLY DECEASED POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM IN PARTS
OF THE NORTHWEST...AND TRIED TO SURROUND THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
IN THE CENTRAL WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN A TRACE TO 0.01...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THIS EVENING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE GOOD NEWS IS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
A SLOW TEMPERATURE DECLINE...SO CURRENT THINKING IS ANY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING / TONIGHT. MODEL QPF IS LIGHT...SO AGAIN THINKING IS
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM CHALLENGE INVOLVES WINTER WEATHER AND WINDS. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS ALBERTA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WILL SOME SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE WEST. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
CHANCES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
NORTH. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING WINDS. DEBATED THE MERITS OF A
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE 1 OR
2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER DECIDED FOR A WIND ADVISORY
AS SUFFICIENT SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW. WILL BREAK OFF THE NORTHERN
PORTION...ALONG HIGHWAY 2 AND NORTH AND MENTION SOME SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL
BE BLUSTERY WITH SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BE 25
TO 45 MPH. WAS CONCERNED ABOUT A 9-11 MB PRESSURE RISE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. COULD GET SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO ROLLA. SUNDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST CENTRAL AND MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED FOR MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...NOW TRENDING BACK COLDER AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SHOWED A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC
IMPACT ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES.

REMOVED SNOW MENTION FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN
MODELS DEPICT A SUBTLE EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS REPEATS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES DO
REBOUND TUESDAY AS SOME WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.

TRENDED THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY COLDER WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHWEST VERSUS ZONAL.

OF MAIN INTEREST AND A RECENT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA (POSSIBLY OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE)...WHICH WOULD CREATE IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL. BOTH THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC ARE PLACEMENT...WITH
THE GFS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST GIVING A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MODEL FLIP FLOPS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THE 12Z GEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN ANY PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM KMOT AND KBIS TO
PERHAPS KJMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...HOWEVER MVFR
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING...BUT FOR NOW KEPT THAT OUT OF THE TAFS
SINCE THE CHANCES APPEAR RELATIVELY SMALL. WINDS WILL TURN WEST /
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CK








000
FXUS63 KBIS 230356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE RAIN
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE HAS MOVED EAST AND OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A CONCERN WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO SOME LOCATIONS...BUT
COMPLICATING THE MATTER IS THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE TENDED TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. OVERALL...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MODEL QPF REMAINING LOW FROM THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS.
DID NOT MAKE ANY LARGE SCALE CHANGES WITH MOST ADJUSTMENTS TO
CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR...WITH OTHER LIGHT ECHOES SHOWN BY AREA RADARS
IN EASTERN MONTANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE
HRRR...SUPPORT A GENERAL DECLINE IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IN
EASTERN MONTANA EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. HAVE GENERALLY DECEASED POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM IN PARTS
OF THE NORTHWEST...AND TRIED TO SURROUND THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
IN THE CENTRAL WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN A TRACE TO 0.01...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THIS EVENING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE GOOD NEWS IS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
A SLOW TEMPERATURE DECLINE...SO CURRENT THINKING IS ANY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING / TONIGHT. MODEL QPF IS LIGHT...SO AGAIN THINKING IS
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM CHALLENGE INVOLVES WINTER WEATHER AND WINDS. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS ALBERTA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WILL SOME SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE WEST. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
CHANCES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
NORTH. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING WINDS. DEBATED THE MERITS OF A
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE 1 OR
2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER DECIDED FOR A WIND ADVISORY
AS SUFFICIENT SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW. WILL BREAK OFF THE NORTHERN
PORTION...ALONG HIGHWAY 2 AND NORTH AND MENTION SOME SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL
BE BLUSTERY WITH SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BE 25
TO 45 MPH. WAS CONCERNED ABOUT A 9-11 MB PRESSURE RISE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. COULD GET SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO ROLLA. SUNDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST CENTRAL AND MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED FOR MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...NOW TRENDING BACK COLDER AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SHOWED A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC
IMPACT ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES.

REMOVED SNOW MENTION FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN
MODELS DEPICT A SUBTLE EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS REPEATS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES DO
REBOUND TUESDAY AS SOME WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.

TRENDED THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY COLDER WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHWEST VERSUS ZONAL.

OF MAIN INTEREST AND A RECENT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA (POSSIBLY OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE)...WHICH WOULD CREATE IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL. BOTH THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC ARE PLACEMENT...WITH
THE GFS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST GIVING A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MODEL FLIP FLOPS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THE 12Z GEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN ANY PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM KMOT AND KBIS TO
PERHAPS KJMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...HOWEVER MVFR
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING...BUT FOR NOW KEPT THAT OUT OF THE TAFS
SINCE THE CHANCES APPEAR RELATIVELY SMALL. WINDS WILL TURN WEST /
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 230356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE RAIN
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE HAS MOVED EAST AND OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A CONCERN WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO SOME LOCATIONS...BUT
COMPLICATING THE MATTER IS THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE TENDED TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. OVERALL...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MODEL QPF REMAINING LOW FROM THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS.
DID NOT MAKE ANY LARGE SCALE CHANGES WITH MOST ADJUSTMENTS TO
CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR...WITH OTHER LIGHT ECHOES SHOWN BY AREA RADARS
IN EASTERN MONTANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE
HRRR...SUPPORT A GENERAL DECLINE IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IN
EASTERN MONTANA EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. HAVE GENERALLY DECEASED POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM IN PARTS
OF THE NORTHWEST...AND TRIED TO SURROUND THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
IN THE CENTRAL WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN A TRACE TO 0.01...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THIS EVENING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE GOOD NEWS IS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
A SLOW TEMPERATURE DECLINE...SO CURRENT THINKING IS ANY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING / TONIGHT. MODEL QPF IS LIGHT...SO AGAIN THINKING IS
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM CHALLENGE INVOLVES WINTER WEATHER AND WINDS. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS ALBERTA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WILL SOME SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE WEST. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
CHANCES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
NORTH. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING WINDS. DEBATED THE MERITS OF A
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE 1 OR
2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER DECIDED FOR A WIND ADVISORY
AS SUFFICIENT SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW. WILL BREAK OFF THE NORTHERN
PORTION...ALONG HIGHWAY 2 AND NORTH AND MENTION SOME SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL
BE BLUSTERY WITH SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BE 25
TO 45 MPH. WAS CONCERNED ABOUT A 9-11 MB PRESSURE RISE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. COULD GET SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO ROLLA. SUNDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST CENTRAL AND MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED FOR MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...NOW TRENDING BACK COLDER AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SHOWED A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC
IMPACT ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES.

REMOVED SNOW MENTION FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN
MODELS DEPICT A SUBTLE EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS REPEATS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES DO
REBOUND TUESDAY AS SOME WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.

TRENDED THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY COLDER WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHWEST VERSUS ZONAL.

OF MAIN INTEREST AND A RECENT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA (POSSIBLY OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE)...WHICH WOULD CREATE IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL. BOTH THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC ARE PLACEMENT...WITH
THE GFS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST GIVING A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MODEL FLIP FLOPS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THE 12Z GEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN ANY PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM KMOT AND KBIS TO
PERHAPS KJMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...HOWEVER MVFR
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING...BUT FOR NOW KEPT THAT OUT OF THE TAFS
SINCE THE CHANCES APPEAR RELATIVELY SMALL. WINDS WILL TURN WEST /
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 230008
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
608 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR...WITH OTHER LIGHT ECHOES SHOWN BY AREA RADARS
IN EASTERN MONTANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE
HRRR...SUPPORT A GENERAL DECLINE IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IN
EASTERN MONTANA EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. HAVE GENERALLY DECEASED POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM IN PARTS
OF THE NORTHWEST...AND TRIED TO SURROUND THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
IN THE CENTRAL WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN A TRACE TO 0.01...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THIS EVENING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE GOOD NEWS IS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
A SLOW TEMPERATURE DECLINE...SO CURRENT THINKING IS ANY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING / TONIGHT. MODEL QPF IS LIGHT...SO AGAIN THINKING IS
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM CHALLENGE INVOLVES WINTER WEATHER AND WINDS. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS ALBERTA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WILL SOME SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE WEST. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
CHANCES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
NORTH. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING WINDS. DEBATED THE MERITS OF A
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE 1 OR
2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER DECIDED FOR A WIND ADVISORY
AS SUFFICIENT SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW. WILL BREAK OFF THE NORTHERN
PORTION...ALONG HIGHWAY 2 AND NORTH AND MENTION SOME SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL
BE BLUSTERY WITH SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BE 25
TO 45 MPH. WAS CONCERNED ABOUT A 9-11 MB PRESSURE RISE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. COULD GET SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO ROLLA. SUNDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST CENTRAL AND MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED FOR MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...NOW TRENDING BACK COLDER AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SHOWED A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC
IMPACT ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES.

REMOVED SNOW MENTION FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN
MODELS DEPICT A SUBTLE EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS REPEATS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES DO
REBOUND TUESDAY AS SOME WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.

TRENDED THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY COLDER WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHWEST VERSUS ZONAL.

OF MAIN INTEREST AND A RECENT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA (POSSIBLY OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE)...WHICH WOULD CREATE IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL. BOTH THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC ARE PLACEMENT...WITH
THE GFS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST GIVING A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MODEL FLIP FLOPS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THE 12Z GEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN ANY PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM KMOT AND KBIS TO
PERHAPS KJMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...HOWEVER MVFR
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING...BUT FOR NOW KEPT THAT OUT OF THE TAFS
SINCE THE CHANCES APPEAR RELATIVELY SMALL. WINDS WILL TURN WEST /
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 230008
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
608 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR...WITH OTHER LIGHT ECHOES SHOWN BY AREA RADARS
IN EASTERN MONTANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE
HRRR...SUPPORT A GENERAL DECLINE IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IN
EASTERN MONTANA EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. HAVE GENERALLY DECEASED POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM IN PARTS
OF THE NORTHWEST...AND TRIED TO SURROUND THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
IN THE CENTRAL WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN A TRACE TO 0.01...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THIS EVENING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE GOOD NEWS IS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
A SLOW TEMPERATURE DECLINE...SO CURRENT THINKING IS ANY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING / TONIGHT. MODEL QPF IS LIGHT...SO AGAIN THINKING IS
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM CHALLENGE INVOLVES WINTER WEATHER AND WINDS. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS ALBERTA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WILL SOME SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE WEST. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
CHANCES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
NORTH. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING WINDS. DEBATED THE MERITS OF A
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE 1 OR
2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER DECIDED FOR A WIND ADVISORY
AS SUFFICIENT SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW. WILL BREAK OFF THE NORTHERN
PORTION...ALONG HIGHWAY 2 AND NORTH AND MENTION SOME SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL
BE BLUSTERY WITH SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BE 25
TO 45 MPH. WAS CONCERNED ABOUT A 9-11 MB PRESSURE RISE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. COULD GET SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO ROLLA. SUNDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST CENTRAL AND MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED FOR MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...NOW TRENDING BACK COLDER AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SHOWED A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC
IMPACT ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES.

REMOVED SNOW MENTION FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN
MODELS DEPICT A SUBTLE EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS REPEATS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES DO
REBOUND TUESDAY AS SOME WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.

TRENDED THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY COLDER WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHWEST VERSUS ZONAL.

OF MAIN INTEREST AND A RECENT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA (POSSIBLY OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE)...WHICH WOULD CREATE IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL. BOTH THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC ARE PLACEMENT...WITH
THE GFS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST GIVING A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MODEL FLIP FLOPS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THE 12Z GEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN ANY PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM KMOT AND KBIS TO
PERHAPS KJMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...HOWEVER MVFR
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING...BUT FOR NOW KEPT THAT OUT OF THE TAFS
SINCE THE CHANCES APPEAR RELATIVELY SMALL. WINDS WILL TURN WEST /
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CK








000
FXUS63 KBIS 222142
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM CHALLENGE INVOLVES WINTER WEATHER AND WINDS. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS ALBERTA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WILL SOME SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE WEST. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
CHANCES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
NORTH. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING WINDS. DEBATED THE MERITS OF A
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE 1 OR
2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER DECIDED FOR A WIND ADVISORY
AS SUFFICIENT SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW. WILL BREAK OFF THE NORTHERN
PORTION...ALONG HIGHWAY 2 AND NORTH AND MENTION SOME SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL
BE BLUSTERY WITH SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BE 25
TO 45 MPH. WAS CONCERNED ABOUT A 9-11 MB PRESSURE RISE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. COULD GET SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO ROLLA. SUNDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST CENTRAL AND MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED FOR MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...NOW TRENDING BACK COLDER AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SHOWED A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC
IMPACT ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES.

REMOVED SNOW MENTION FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN
MODELS DEPICT A SUBTLE EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS REPEATS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES DO
REBOUND TUESDAY AS SOME WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.

TRENDED THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY COLDER WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHWEST VERSUS ZONAL.

OF MAIN INTEREST AND A RECENT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA (POSSIBLY OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE)...WHICH WOULD CREATE IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL. BOTH THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC ARE PLACEMENT...WITH
THE GFS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST GIVING A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MODEL FLIP FLOPS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THE 12Z GEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN ANY PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
BKN TO OVER MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. RAIN IS LIKELY SOUTHWEST. AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING EXPECT A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SCENARIO WITH RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE...MAINLY KISN-KDIK. AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN LATER MAINLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 12Z MAY CREATE SOME AREAS BLOWING SNOW.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA











000
FXUS63 KBIS 222142
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM CHALLENGE INVOLVES WINTER WEATHER AND WINDS. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS ALBERTA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WILL SOME SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE WEST. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
CHANCES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
NORTH. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING WINDS. DEBATED THE MERITS OF A
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE 1 OR
2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER DECIDED FOR A WIND ADVISORY
AS SUFFICIENT SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW. WILL BREAK OFF THE NORTHERN
PORTION...ALONG HIGHWAY 2 AND NORTH AND MENTION SOME SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL
BE BLUSTERY WITH SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BE 25
TO 45 MPH. WAS CONCERNED ABOUT A 9-11 MB PRESSURE RISE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. COULD GET SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO ROLLA. SUNDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST CENTRAL AND MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED FOR MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...NOW TRENDING BACK COLDER AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SHOWED A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC
IMPACT ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES.

REMOVED SNOW MENTION FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN
MODELS DEPICT A SUBTLE EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS REPEATS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES DO
REBOUND TUESDAY AS SOME WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.

TRENDED THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY COLDER WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHWEST VERSUS ZONAL.

OF MAIN INTEREST AND A RECENT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA (POSSIBLY OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE)...WHICH WOULD CREATE IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL. BOTH THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC ARE PLACEMENT...WITH
THE GFS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST GIVING A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MODEL FLIP FLOPS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THE 12Z GEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN ANY PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
BKN TO OVER MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. RAIN IS LIKELY SOUTHWEST. AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING EXPECT A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SCENARIO WITH RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE...MAINLY KISN-KDIK. AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN LATER MAINLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 12Z MAY CREATE SOME AREAS BLOWING SNOW.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA










000
FXUS63 KBIS 221834
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW STRATUS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL WITH SOME FOG
AT ROLLA THIS AFTERNOON. BOWMAN RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN READY TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST. BEEFED OP POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. LOWED MIX TOMES NORTH CENTRAL
TO AROUND 30 AT ROLLA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

NWS RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT RETURNS ALONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH.
BELIEVE MOST OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND BUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SNOW OR RAIN MAY BE SEEN THIS AM ACROSS CENTRAL ND SO ADDED
SOME SMALL POPS CENTRAL. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN CANADA BUT
COULD SKIRT THE FAR NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY DAYTIME PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN.
CURRENTLY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MVFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA AND
DIPPING DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR TO START THE MORNING. LOWERED SKY COVER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. A WARM DAY TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM
BRINGING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH MAINLY ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ALBERTA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. A SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WAS KEEPING THE SURFACE WINDS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA IN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY REGIME...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EMERGE INTO THE FRONT RANGE
OF MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING...AND MOVE EAST
INTO MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACH THE MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER BY SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S
OVER THE STATE...NEARING 50 IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/LIFTING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BEFORE SUNRISE. A COMPLICATED SCENARIO OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH
THE WARM AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME.

OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...EXPECTING RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING
CHANGING RATHER QUICKLY TO SNOW - WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN.

OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE EVENING COULD BE
MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING. AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. IN THE JAMES VALLEY...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGGED NEAR
RUGBY ON THE 22 NOV 00 UTC GFS. THE GEM/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE LOW IN FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA. BY THIS TIME A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXITING EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS PUSHING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THAT IF THERE IS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION
HERE AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY...IT COULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL
QUICKLY END AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
MAIN HAZARD ON MONDAY WILL BE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...COMBINED WITH SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT
NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. FOR NOW WE WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER
SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/GEM AND THE ECMWF WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE COLD SURGE AND A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/GEM ARE FARTHER WEST WITH
THE COLD HIGH DROPPING SOUTH AND THUS THE BUILDING RIDGE IS
FLATTER...WHICH RESULTS IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE OF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF
KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW A
MODEL BLEND BRINGS CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF A LINE FORM ROUGHLY WILLISTON TO BISMARCK.

IT STILL LOOKS RATHER COLD BUT MAINLY DRY ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BUT
THE WEST COULD RISE INTO THE 20S. BEYOND THURSDAY THE ECMWF
INDICATES AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A MORE ACTIVE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND WHICH
GIVES MAINLY 20S FOR HIGHS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FOR LOWS
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
BKN TO OVER MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. RAIN IS LIKELY SOUTHWEST. AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING EXPECT A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SCENARIO WITH RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE...MAINLY KISN-KDIK. AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN LATER MAINLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 12Z MAY CREATE SOME AREAS BLOWING SNOW.



&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 221834
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW STRATUS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL WITH SOME FOG
AT ROLLA THIS AFTERNOON. BOWMAN RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN READY TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST. BEEFED OP POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. LOWED MIX TOMES NORTH CENTRAL
TO AROUND 30 AT ROLLA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

NWS RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT RETURNS ALONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH.
BELIEVE MOST OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND BUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SNOW OR RAIN MAY BE SEEN THIS AM ACROSS CENTRAL ND SO ADDED
SOME SMALL POPS CENTRAL. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN CANADA BUT
COULD SKIRT THE FAR NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY DAYTIME PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN.
CURRENTLY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MVFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA AND
DIPPING DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR TO START THE MORNING. LOWERED SKY COVER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. A WARM DAY TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM
BRINGING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH MAINLY ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ALBERTA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. A SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WAS KEEPING THE SURFACE WINDS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA IN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY REGIME...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EMERGE INTO THE FRONT RANGE
OF MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING...AND MOVE EAST
INTO MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACH THE MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER BY SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S
OVER THE STATE...NEARING 50 IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/LIFTING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BEFORE SUNRISE. A COMPLICATED SCENARIO OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH
THE WARM AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME.

OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...EXPECTING RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING
CHANGING RATHER QUICKLY TO SNOW - WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN.

OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE EVENING COULD BE
MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING. AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. IN THE JAMES VALLEY...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGGED NEAR
RUGBY ON THE 22 NOV 00 UTC GFS. THE GEM/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE LOW IN FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA. BY THIS TIME A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXITING EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS PUSHING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THAT IF THERE IS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION
HERE AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY...IT COULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL
QUICKLY END AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
MAIN HAZARD ON MONDAY WILL BE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...COMBINED WITH SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT
NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. FOR NOW WE WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER
SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/GEM AND THE ECMWF WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE COLD SURGE AND A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/GEM ARE FARTHER WEST WITH
THE COLD HIGH DROPPING SOUTH AND THUS THE BUILDING RIDGE IS
FLATTER...WHICH RESULTS IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE OF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF
KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW A
MODEL BLEND BRINGS CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF A LINE FORM ROUGHLY WILLISTON TO BISMARCK.

IT STILL LOOKS RATHER COLD BUT MAINLY DRY ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BUT
THE WEST COULD RISE INTO THE 20S. BEYOND THURSDAY THE ECMWF
INDICATES AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A MORE ACTIVE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND WHICH
GIVES MAINLY 20S FOR HIGHS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FOR LOWS
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
BKN TO OVER MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. RAIN IS LIKELY SOUTHWEST. AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING EXPECT A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SCENARIO WITH RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE...MAINLY KISN-KDIK. AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN LATER MAINLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 12Z MAY CREATE SOME AREAS BLOWING SNOW.



&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 221619
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1019 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

NWS RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT RETURNS ALONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH.
BELIEVE MOST OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND BUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SNOW OR RAIN MAY BE SEEN THIS AM ACROSS CENTRAL ND SO ADDED
SOME SMALL POPS CENTRAL. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN CANADA BUT
COULD SKIRT THE FAR NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY DAYTIME PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN.
CURRENTLY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MVFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA AND
DIPPING DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR TO START THE MORNING. LOWERED SKY COVER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. A WARM DAY TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM
BRINGING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH MAINLY ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ALBERTA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. A SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WAS KEEPING THE SURFACE WINDS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA IN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY REGIME...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EMERGE INTO THE FRONT RANGE
OF MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING...AND MOVE EAST
INTO MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACH THE MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER BY SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S
OVER THE STATE...NEARING 50 IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/LIFTING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BEFORE SUNRISE. A COMPLICATED SCENARIO OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH
THE WARM AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME.

OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...EXPECTING RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING
CHANGING RATHER QUICKLY TO SNOW - WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN.

OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE EVENING COULD BE
MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING. AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. IN THE JAMES VALLEY...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGGED NEAR
RUGBY ON THE 22 NOV 00 UTC GFS. THE GEM/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE LOW IN FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA. BY THIS TIME A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXITING EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS PUSHING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THAT IF THERE IS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION
HERE AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY...IT COULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL
QUICKLY END AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
MAIN HAZARD ON MONDAY WILL BE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...COMBINED WITH SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT
NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. FOR NOW WE WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER
SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/GEM AND THE ECMWF WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE COLD SURGE AND A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/GEM ARE FARTHER WEST WITH
THE COLD HIGH DROPPING SOUTH AND THUS THE BUILDING RIDGE IS
FLATTER...WHICH RESULTS IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE OF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF
KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW A
MODEL BLEND BRINGS CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF A LINE FORM ROUGHLY WILLISTON TO BISMARCK.

IT STILL LOOKS RATHER COLD BUT MAINLY DRY ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BUT
THE WEST COULD RISE INTO THE 20S. BEYOND THURSDAY THE ECMWF
INDICATES AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A MORE ACTIVE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND WHICH
GIVES MAINLY 20S FOR HIGHS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FOR LOWS
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
BKN TO OVER MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TODAY INITIALLY AS RAIN OR SNOW BUT MORE LIKELY RAIN
AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING EXPECT A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION SCENARIO WITH RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
POSSIBLE...MAINLY KISN-KDIK. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN LATER MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 12Z MAY
CREATE SOME AREAS BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 221619
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1019 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

NWS RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT RETURNS ALONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH.
BELIEVE MOST OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND BUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SNOW OR RAIN MAY BE SEEN THIS AM ACROSS CENTRAL ND SO ADDED
SOME SMALL POPS CENTRAL. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN CANADA BUT
COULD SKIRT THE FAR NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY DAYTIME PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN.
CURRENTLY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MVFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA AND
DIPPING DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR TO START THE MORNING. LOWERED SKY COVER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. A WARM DAY TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM
BRINGING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH MAINLY ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ALBERTA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. A SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WAS KEEPING THE SURFACE WINDS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA IN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY REGIME...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EMERGE INTO THE FRONT RANGE
OF MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING...AND MOVE EAST
INTO MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACH THE MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER BY SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S
OVER THE STATE...NEARING 50 IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/LIFTING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BEFORE SUNRISE. A COMPLICATED SCENARIO OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH
THE WARM AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME.

OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...EXPECTING RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING
CHANGING RATHER QUICKLY TO SNOW - WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN.

OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE EVENING COULD BE
MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING. AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. IN THE JAMES VALLEY...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGGED NEAR
RUGBY ON THE 22 NOV 00 UTC GFS. THE GEM/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE LOW IN FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA. BY THIS TIME A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXITING EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS PUSHING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THAT IF THERE IS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION
HERE AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY...IT COULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL
QUICKLY END AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
MAIN HAZARD ON MONDAY WILL BE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...COMBINED WITH SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT
NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. FOR NOW WE WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER
SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/GEM AND THE ECMWF WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE COLD SURGE AND A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/GEM ARE FARTHER WEST WITH
THE COLD HIGH DROPPING SOUTH AND THUS THE BUILDING RIDGE IS
FLATTER...WHICH RESULTS IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE OF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF
KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW A
MODEL BLEND BRINGS CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF A LINE FORM ROUGHLY WILLISTON TO BISMARCK.

IT STILL LOOKS RATHER COLD BUT MAINLY DRY ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BUT
THE WEST COULD RISE INTO THE 20S. BEYOND THURSDAY THE ECMWF
INDICATES AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A MORE ACTIVE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND WHICH
GIVES MAINLY 20S FOR HIGHS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FOR LOWS
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
BKN TO OVER MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TODAY INITIALLY AS RAIN OR SNOW BUT MORE LIKELY RAIN
AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING EXPECT A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION SCENARIO WITH RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
POSSIBLE...MAINLY KISN-KDIK. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN LATER MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 12Z MAY
CREATE SOME AREAS BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 221243
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
643 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN CANADA BUT
COULD SKIRT THE FAR NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY DAYTIME PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN.
CURRENTLY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MVFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA AND
DIPPING DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR TO START THE MORNING. LOWERED SKY COVER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. A WARM DAY TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM
BRINGING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH MAINLY ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ALBERTA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. A SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WAS KEEPING THE SURFACE WINDS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA IN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY REGIME...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EMERGE INTO THE FRONT RANGE
OF MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING...AND MOVE EAST
INTO MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACH THE MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER BY SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S
OVER THE STATE...NEARING 50 IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/LIFTING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BEFORE SUNRISE. A COMPLICATED SCENARIO OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH
THE WARM AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME.

OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...EXPECTING RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING
CHANGING RATHER QUICKLY TO SNOW - WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN.

OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE EVENING COULD BE
MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING. AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. IN THE JAMES VALLEY...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGGED NEAR
RUGBY ON THE 22 NOV 00 UTC GFS. THE GEM/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE LOW IN FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA. BY THIS TIME A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXITING EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS PUSHING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THAT IF THERE IS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION
HERE AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY...IT COULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL
QUICKLY END AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
MAIN HAZARD ON MONDAY WILL BE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...COMBINED WITH SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT
NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. FOR NOW WE WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER
SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/GEM AND THE ECMWF WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE COLD SURGE AND A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/GEM ARE FARTHER WEST WITH
THE COLD HIGH DROPPING SOUTH AND THUS THE BUILDING RIDGE IS
FLATTER...WHICH RESULTS IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE OF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF
KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW A
MODEL BLEND BRINGS CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF A LINE FORM ROUGHLY WILLISTON TO BISMARCK.

IT STILL LOOKS RATHER COLD BUT MAINLY DRY ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BUT
THE WEST COULD RISE INTO THE 20S. BEYOND THURSDAY THE ECMWF
INDICATES AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A MORE ACTIVE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND WHICH
GIVES MAINLY 20S FOR HIGHS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FOR LOWS
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECTING SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
SPREAD EAST. SOME 5000 FT CU TO DEVELOP WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z KEPT A MENTION OF
VCSH WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW AT
KISN/KDIK THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AT
KISN/KDIK. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN POSSIBLE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS AND DID NOT MENTION IN THIS 12Z
ISSUANCE OF THE TAFS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW
EXPECTED AFTER 12Z DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 221243
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
643 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN CANADA BUT
COULD SKIRT THE FAR NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY DAYTIME PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN.
CURRENTLY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MVFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA AND
DIPPING DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR TO START THE MORNING. LOWERED SKY COVER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. A WARM DAY TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM
BRINGING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH MAINLY ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ALBERTA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. A SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WAS KEEPING THE SURFACE WINDS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA IN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY REGIME...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EMERGE INTO THE FRONT RANGE
OF MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING...AND MOVE EAST
INTO MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACH THE MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER BY SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S
OVER THE STATE...NEARING 50 IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/LIFTING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BEFORE SUNRISE. A COMPLICATED SCENARIO OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH
THE WARM AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME.

OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...EXPECTING RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING
CHANGING RATHER QUICKLY TO SNOW - WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN.

OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE EVENING COULD BE
MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING. AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. IN THE JAMES VALLEY...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGGED NEAR
RUGBY ON THE 22 NOV 00 UTC GFS. THE GEM/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE LOW IN FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA. BY THIS TIME A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXITING EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS PUSHING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THAT IF THERE IS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION
HERE AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY...IT COULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL
QUICKLY END AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
MAIN HAZARD ON MONDAY WILL BE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...COMBINED WITH SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT
NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. FOR NOW WE WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER
SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/GEM AND THE ECMWF WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE COLD SURGE AND A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/GEM ARE FARTHER WEST WITH
THE COLD HIGH DROPPING SOUTH AND THUS THE BUILDING RIDGE IS
FLATTER...WHICH RESULTS IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE OF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF
KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW A
MODEL BLEND BRINGS CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF A LINE FORM ROUGHLY WILLISTON TO BISMARCK.

IT STILL LOOKS RATHER COLD BUT MAINLY DRY ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BUT
THE WEST COULD RISE INTO THE 20S. BEYOND THURSDAY THE ECMWF
INDICATES AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A MORE ACTIVE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND WHICH
GIVES MAINLY 20S FOR HIGHS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FOR LOWS
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECTING SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
SPREAD EAST. SOME 5000 FT CU TO DEVELOP WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z KEPT A MENTION OF
VCSH WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW AT
KISN/KDIK THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AT
KISN/KDIK. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN POSSIBLE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS AND DID NOT MENTION IN THIS 12Z
ISSUANCE OF THE TAFS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW
EXPECTED AFTER 12Z DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 220938
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. A WARM DAY TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM
BRINGING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH MAINLY ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ALBERTA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. A SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WAS KEEPING THE SURFACE WINDS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA IN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY REGIME...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EMERGE INTO THE FRONT RANGE
OF MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING...AND MOVE EAST
INTO MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACH THE MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER BY SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S
OVER THE STATE...NEARING 50 IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/LIFTING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BEFORE SUNRISE. A COMPLICATED SCENARIO OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH
THE WARM AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME.

OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...EXPECTING RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING
CHANGING RATHER QUICKLY TO SNOW - WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN.

OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE EVENING COULD BE
MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING. AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. IN THE JAMES VALLEY...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGGED NEAR
RUGBY ON THE 22 NOV 00 UTC GFS. THE GEM/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE LOW IN FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA. BY THIS TIME A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXITING EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS PUSHING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THAT IF THERE IS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION
HERE AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY...IT COULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL
QUICKLY END AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
MAIN HAZARD ON MONDAY WILL BE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...COMBINED WITH SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT
NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. FOR NOW WE WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER
SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/GEM AND THE ECMWF WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE COLD SURGE AND A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/GEM ARE FARTHER WEST WITH
THE COLD HIGH DROPPING SOUTH AND THUS THE BUILDING RIDGE IS
FLATTER...WHICH RESULTS IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE OF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF
KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW A
MODEL BLEND BRINGS CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF A LINE FORM ROUGHLY WILLISTON TO BISMARCK.

IT STILL LOOKS RATHER COLD BUT MAINLY DRY ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BUT
THE WEST COULD RISE INTO THE 20S. BEYOND THURSDAY THE ECMWF
INDICATES AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A MORE ACTIVE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND WHICH
GIVES MAINLY 20S FOR HIGHS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FOR LOWS
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LCL IFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. MELTING SNOW ON FRIDAY HAS ADDED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY MAINTAIN AT 5 TO 10 MPH
AND KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG. WILL
REFRAIN FROM ADDING TO INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR NOW AS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION. AFTER SUNRISE EXPECTING SCT-BKN MID
CLOUDS WITH SOME 5000 FT CU AS LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z KEPT A MENTION OF
VCSH WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW AT
KISN/KDIK THROUGH 06Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 220938
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. A WARM DAY TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM
BRINGING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH MAINLY ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ALBERTA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. A SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WAS KEEPING THE SURFACE WINDS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA IN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY REGIME...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EMERGE INTO THE FRONT RANGE
OF MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING...AND MOVE EAST
INTO MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACH THE MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER BY SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S
OVER THE STATE...NEARING 50 IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/LIFTING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BEFORE SUNRISE. A COMPLICATED SCENARIO OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH
THE WARM AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME.

OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...EXPECTING RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING
CHANGING RATHER QUICKLY TO SNOW - WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN.

OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE EVENING COULD BE
MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING. AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. IN THE JAMES VALLEY...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGGED NEAR
RUGBY ON THE 22 NOV 00 UTC GFS. THE GEM/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE LOW IN FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA. BY THIS TIME A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXITING EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS PUSHING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THAT IF THERE IS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION
HERE AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY...IT COULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL
QUICKLY END AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
MAIN HAZARD ON MONDAY WILL BE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...COMBINED WITH SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT
NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. FOR NOW WE WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER
SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/GEM AND THE ECMWF WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE COLD SURGE AND A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/GEM ARE FARTHER WEST WITH
THE COLD HIGH DROPPING SOUTH AND THUS THE BUILDING RIDGE IS
FLATTER...WHICH RESULTS IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE OF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF
KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW A
MODEL BLEND BRINGS CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF A LINE FORM ROUGHLY WILLISTON TO BISMARCK.

IT STILL LOOKS RATHER COLD BUT MAINLY DRY ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BUT
THE WEST COULD RISE INTO THE 20S. BEYOND THURSDAY THE ECMWF
INDICATES AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A MORE ACTIVE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND WHICH
GIVES MAINLY 20S FOR HIGHS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FOR LOWS
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LCL IFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. MELTING SNOW ON FRIDAY HAS ADDED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY MAINTAIN AT 5 TO 10 MPH
AND KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG. WILL
REFRAIN FROM ADDING TO INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR NOW AS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION. AFTER SUNRISE EXPECTING SCT-BKN MID
CLOUDS WITH SOME 5000 FT CU AS LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z KEPT A MENTION OF
VCSH WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW AT
KISN/KDIK THROUGH 06Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 220938
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. A WARM DAY TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM
BRINGING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH MAINLY ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ALBERTA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. A SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WAS KEEPING THE SURFACE WINDS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA IN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY REGIME...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EMERGE INTO THE FRONT RANGE
OF MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING...AND MOVE EAST
INTO MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACH THE MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER BY SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S
OVER THE STATE...NEARING 50 IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/LIFTING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BEFORE SUNRISE. A COMPLICATED SCENARIO OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH
THE WARM AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME.

OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...EXPECTING RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING
CHANGING RATHER QUICKLY TO SNOW - WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN.

OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE EVENING COULD BE
MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING. AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. IN THE JAMES VALLEY...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGGED NEAR
RUGBY ON THE 22 NOV 00 UTC GFS. THE GEM/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE LOW IN FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA. BY THIS TIME A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXITING EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS PUSHING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THAT IF THERE IS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION
HERE AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY...IT COULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL
QUICKLY END AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
MAIN HAZARD ON MONDAY WILL BE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...COMBINED WITH SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT
NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. FOR NOW WE WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER
SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/GEM AND THE ECMWF WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE COLD SURGE AND A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/GEM ARE FARTHER WEST WITH
THE COLD HIGH DROPPING SOUTH AND THUS THE BUILDING RIDGE IS
FLATTER...WHICH RESULTS IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE OF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF
KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW A
MODEL BLEND BRINGS CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF A LINE FORM ROUGHLY WILLISTON TO BISMARCK.

IT STILL LOOKS RATHER COLD BUT MAINLY DRY ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BUT
THE WEST COULD RISE INTO THE 20S. BEYOND THURSDAY THE ECMWF
INDICATES AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A MORE ACTIVE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND WHICH
GIVES MAINLY 20S FOR HIGHS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FOR LOWS
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LCL IFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. MELTING SNOW ON FRIDAY HAS ADDED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY MAINTAIN AT 5 TO 10 MPH
AND KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG. WILL
REFRAIN FROM ADDING TO INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR NOW AS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION. AFTER SUNRISE EXPECTING SCT-BKN MID
CLOUDS WITH SOME 5000 FT CU AS LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z KEPT A MENTION OF
VCSH WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW AT
KISN/KDIK THROUGH 06Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 220640
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1240 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING QUICKLY. ONLY CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE
WAS TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS TO DROP SLOWLY INTO THE
MID/LOW 20S BY AROUND SUNRISE. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUICK RISE IN
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SUNRISE AND NOON AS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
DECREASE. FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT
AS THEY HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF AS FAST AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HAVE
ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT AS SOME AREAS OF HIGHER CLOUDS
MOVE THROUGH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
THROUGHOUT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WITH THE MELTING THAT OCCURRED
OVER THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
WAS TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER A BIT IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 333 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NORTH DAKOTA REMAINS IN A MILD AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WARM
FRONT ACROSS MANITOBA AND A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
WARMEST AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S. BUT EVEN OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHS TODAY HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MID 40S. EXPECT MODERATE SNOW MELT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
MILD AIR AND BELIEVE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FROM SNOW MELT AND RIVER/LAKE
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL LOOSE IS PUSH AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING
ACROSS MONTANA/WYOMING DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN
AND PULL DOWN SLOPE AIR ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. THERE
WILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. HIGHS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
SATURDAY AS WELL. WENT WITH THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE THEN RAISED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 333 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH PUSHING EAST NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE MONTANA ROCKIES SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER LEE SIDE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING.
INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL SEE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING.

P-TYPE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING STILL LOOKING
LIKE A MIX. MODELS SPREADS ARE LARGE REGARDING PLACEMENT OF QPF
WHICH LEADS TO A TRICKY POP FORECAST. MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT A
GREATER CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL ND NEAR THE TRACK OF
A LEAD S/WV IMPULSE. REGARDLESS A BLEND OF MODELS/BUFKIT ALL
INDICATE ENOUGH WARM AIR (+0C) ALOFT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR SURGE DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIG FACTOR AS TO
IF THERE WILL BE A THREAT OR NOT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE
HOW.

COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 12Z SUNDAY AND ON
ENDING ANY MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

NEXT WEATHER IMPACT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE STRONG
WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY
NIGHT PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR BLOWING
SNOW IMPACTS...THINK IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AS THE CURRENT SNOWPACK WILL HAVE CRUSTED WITH THE
WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WARMER
THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH BOTH SOLUTIONS NOW BRINGING UPPER RIDGING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHIFT WAS REFLECTED
IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 20-30 FOR NEXT FRIDAY. IF MODEL OUTPUT
STAYS THE COURSE WITH A WESTERLY/ZONAL FLOW PROMOTING A
WARM/DOWNSLOPE FLOW...20-30 MAY BE MUCH TOO COLD OF A FORECAST.
FOR NOW OPTED TO REFLECT THE PATTERN CHANGE AND SEE IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LCL IFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. MELTING SNOW ON FRIDAY HAS ADDED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY MAINTAIN AT 5 TO 10 MPH
AND KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG. WILL
REFRAIN FROM ADDING TO INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR NOW AS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION. AFTER SUNRISE EXPECTING SCT-BKN MID
CLOUDS WITH SOME 5000 FT CU AS LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z KEPT A MENTION OF
VCSH WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW AT
KISN/KDIK THROUGH 06Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 220640
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1240 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING QUICKLY. ONLY CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE
WAS TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS TO DROP SLOWLY INTO THE
MID/LOW 20S BY AROUND SUNRISE. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUICK RISE IN
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SUNRISE AND NOON AS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
DECREASE. FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT
AS THEY HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF AS FAST AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HAVE
ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT AS SOME AREAS OF HIGHER CLOUDS
MOVE THROUGH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
THROUGHOUT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WITH THE MELTING THAT OCCURRED
OVER THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
WAS TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER A BIT IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 333 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NORTH DAKOTA REMAINS IN A MILD AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WARM
FRONT ACROSS MANITOBA AND A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
WARMEST AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S. BUT EVEN OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHS TODAY HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MID 40S. EXPECT MODERATE SNOW MELT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
MILD AIR AND BELIEVE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FROM SNOW MELT AND RIVER/LAKE
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL LOOSE IS PUSH AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING
ACROSS MONTANA/WYOMING DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN
AND PULL DOWN SLOPE AIR ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. THERE
WILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. HIGHS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
SATURDAY AS WELL. WENT WITH THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE THEN RAISED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 333 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH PUSHING EAST NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE MONTANA ROCKIES SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER LEE SIDE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING.
INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL SEE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING.

P-TYPE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING STILL LOOKING
LIKE A MIX. MODELS SPREADS ARE LARGE REGARDING PLACEMENT OF QPF
WHICH LEADS TO A TRICKY POP FORECAST. MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT A
GREATER CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL ND NEAR THE TRACK OF
A LEAD S/WV IMPULSE. REGARDLESS A BLEND OF MODELS/BUFKIT ALL
INDICATE ENOUGH WARM AIR (+0C) ALOFT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR SURGE DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIG FACTOR AS TO
IF THERE WILL BE A THREAT OR NOT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE
HOW.

COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 12Z SUNDAY AND ON
ENDING ANY MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

NEXT WEATHER IMPACT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE STRONG
WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY
NIGHT PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR BLOWING
SNOW IMPACTS...THINK IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AS THE CURRENT SNOWPACK WILL HAVE CRUSTED WITH THE
WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WARMER
THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH BOTH SOLUTIONS NOW BRINGING UPPER RIDGING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHIFT WAS REFLECTED
IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 20-30 FOR NEXT FRIDAY. IF MODEL OUTPUT
STAYS THE COURSE WITH A WESTERLY/ZONAL FLOW PROMOTING A
WARM/DOWNSLOPE FLOW...20-30 MAY BE MUCH TOO COLD OF A FORECAST.
FOR NOW OPTED TO REFLECT THE PATTERN CHANGE AND SEE IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LCL IFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. MELTING SNOW ON FRIDAY HAS ADDED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY MAINTAIN AT 5 TO 10 MPH
AND KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG. WILL
REFRAIN FROM ADDING TO INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR NOW AS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION. AFTER SUNRISE EXPECTING SCT-BKN MID
CLOUDS WITH SOME 5000 FT CU AS LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z KEPT A MENTION OF
VCSH WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW AT
KISN/KDIK THROUGH 06Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 220322
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
922 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
DECREASE. FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT
AS THEY HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF AS FAST AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HAVE
ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT AS SOME AREAS OF HIGHER CLOUDS
MOVE THROUGH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
THROUGHOUT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WITH THE MELTING THAT OCCURRED
OVER THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
WAS TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER A BIT IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 333 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NORTH DAKOTA REMAINS IN A MILD AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WARM
FRONT ACROSS MANITOBA AND A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
WARMEST AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S. BUT EVEN OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHS TODAY HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MID 40S. EXPECT MODERATE SNOW MELT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
MILD AIR AND BELIEVE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FROM SNOW MELT AND RIVER/LAKE
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL LOOSE IS PUSH AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING
ACROSS MONTANA/WYOMING DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN
AND PULL DOWN SLOPE AIR ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. THERE
WILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. HIGHS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
SATURDAY AS WELL. WENT WITH THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE THEN RAISED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 333 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH PUSHING EAST NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE MONTANA ROCKIES SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER LEE SIDE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING.
INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL SEE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING.

P-TYPE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING STILL LOOKING
LIKE A MIX. MODELS SPREADS ARE LARGE REGARDING PLACEMENT OF QPF
WHICH LEADS TO A TRICKY POP FORECAST. MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT A
GREATER CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL ND NEAR THE TRACK OF
A LEAD S/WV IMPULSE. REGARDLESS A BLEND OF MODELS/BUFKIT ALL
INDICATE ENOUGH WARM AIR (+0C) ALOFT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR SURGE DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIG FACTOR AS TO
IF THERE WILL BE A THREAT OR NOT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE
HOW.

COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 12Z SUNDAY AND ON
ENDING ANY MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

NEXT WEATHER IMPACT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE STRONG
WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY
NIGHT PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR BLOWING
SNOW IMPACTS...THINK IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AS THE CURRENT SNOWPACK WILL HAVE CRUSTED WITH THE
WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WARMER
THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH BOTH SOLUTIONS NOW BRINGING UPPER RIDGING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHIFT WAS REFLECTED
IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 20-30 FOR NEXT FRIDAY. IF MODEL OUTPUT
STAYS THE COURSE WITH A WESTERLY/ZONAL FLOW PROMOTING A
WARM/DOWNSLOPE FLOW...20-30 MAY BE MUCH TOO COLD OF A FORECAST.
FOR NOW OPTED TO REFLECT THE PATTERN CHANGE AND SEE IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LCL IFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT AS PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS. WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING TO INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR NOW AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND TIMING IS
STILL IN QUESTION. LIGHT RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NO VIS RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 220322
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
922 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
DECREASE. FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT
AS THEY HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF AS FAST AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HAVE
ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT AS SOME AREAS OF HIGHER CLOUDS
MOVE THROUGH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
THROUGHOUT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WITH THE MELTING THAT OCCURRED
OVER THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
WAS TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER A BIT IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 333 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NORTH DAKOTA REMAINS IN A MILD AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WARM
FRONT ACROSS MANITOBA AND A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
WARMEST AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S. BUT EVEN OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHS TODAY HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MID 40S. EXPECT MODERATE SNOW MELT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
MILD AIR AND BELIEVE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FROM SNOW MELT AND RIVER/LAKE
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL LOOSE IS PUSH AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING
ACROSS MONTANA/WYOMING DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN
AND PULL DOWN SLOPE AIR ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. THERE
WILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. HIGHS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
SATURDAY AS WELL. WENT WITH THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE THEN RAISED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 333 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH PUSHING EAST NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE MONTANA ROCKIES SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER LEE SIDE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING.
INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL SEE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING.

P-TYPE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING STILL LOOKING
LIKE A MIX. MODELS SPREADS ARE LARGE REGARDING PLACEMENT OF QPF
WHICH LEADS TO A TRICKY POP FORECAST. MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT A
GREATER CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL ND NEAR THE TRACK OF
A LEAD S/WV IMPULSE. REGARDLESS A BLEND OF MODELS/BUFKIT ALL
INDICATE ENOUGH WARM AIR (+0C) ALOFT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR SURGE DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIG FACTOR AS TO
IF THERE WILL BE A THREAT OR NOT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE
HOW.

COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 12Z SUNDAY AND ON
ENDING ANY MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

NEXT WEATHER IMPACT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE STRONG
WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY
NIGHT PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR BLOWING
SNOW IMPACTS...THINK IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AS THE CURRENT SNOWPACK WILL HAVE CRUSTED WITH THE
WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WARMER
THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH BOTH SOLUTIONS NOW BRINGING UPPER RIDGING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHIFT WAS REFLECTED
IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 20-30 FOR NEXT FRIDAY. IF MODEL OUTPUT
STAYS THE COURSE WITH A WESTERLY/ZONAL FLOW PROMOTING A
WARM/DOWNSLOPE FLOW...20-30 MAY BE MUCH TOO COLD OF A FORECAST.
FOR NOW OPTED TO REFLECT THE PATTERN CHANGE AND SEE IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LCL IFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT AS PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS. WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING TO INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR NOW AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND TIMING IS
STILL IN QUESTION. LIGHT RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NO VIS RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 220023
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
623 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
THROUGHOUT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WITH THE MELTING THAT OCCURRED
OVER THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
WAS TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER A BIT IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 333 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NORTH DAKOTA REMAINS IN A MILD AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WARM
FRONT ACROSS MANITOBA AND A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
WARMEST AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S. BUT EVEN OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHS TODAY HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MID 40S. EXPECT MODERATE SNOW MELT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
MILD AIR AND BELIEVE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FROM SNOW MELT AND RIVER/LAKE
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL LOOSE IS PUSH AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING
ACROSS MONTANA/WYOMING DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN
AND PULL DOWN SLOPE AIR ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. THERE
WILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. HIGHS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
SATURDAY AS WELL. WENT WITH THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE THEN RAISED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 333 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH PUSHING EAST NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE MONTANA ROCKIES SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER LEE SIDE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING.
INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL SEE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING.

P-TYPE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING STILL LOOKING
LIKE A MIX. MODELS SPREADS ARE LARGE REGARDING PLACEMENT OF QPF
WHICH LEADS TO A TRICKY POP FORECAST. MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT A
GREATER CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL ND NEAR THE TRACK OF
A LEAD S/WV IMPULSE. REGARDLESS A BLEND OF MODELS/BUFKIT ALL
INDICATE ENOUGH WARM AIR (+0C) ALOFT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR SURGE DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIG FACTOR AS TO
IF THERE WILL BE A THREAT OR NOT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE
HOW.

COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 12Z SUNDAY AND ON
ENDING ANY MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

NEXT WEATHER IMPACT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE STRONG
WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY
NIGHT PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR BLOWING
SNOW IMPACTS...THINK IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AS THE CURRENT SNOWPACK WILL HAVE CRUSTED WITH THE
WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WARMER
THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH BOTH SOLUTIONS NOW BRINGING UPPER RIDGING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHIFT WAS REFLECTED
IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 20-30 FOR NEXT FRIDAY. IF MODEL OUTPUT
STAYS THE COURSE WITH A WESTERLY/ZONAL FLOW PROMOTING A
WARM/DOWNSLOPE FLOW...20-30 MAY BE MUCH TOO COLD OF A FORECAST.
FOR NOW OPTED TO REFLECT THE PATTERN CHANGE AND SEE IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LCL IFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT AS PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS. WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING TO INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR NOW AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND TIMING IS
STILL IN QUESTION. LIGHT RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NO VIS RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 220023
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
623 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
THROUGHOUT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WITH THE MELTING THAT OCCURRED
OVER THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
WAS TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER A BIT IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 333 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NORTH DAKOTA REMAINS IN A MILD AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WARM
FRONT ACROSS MANITOBA AND A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
WARMEST AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S. BUT EVEN OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHS TODAY HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MID 40S. EXPECT MODERATE SNOW MELT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
MILD AIR AND BELIEVE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FROM SNOW MELT AND RIVER/LAKE
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL LOOSE IS PUSH AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING
ACROSS MONTANA/WYOMING DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN
AND PULL DOWN SLOPE AIR ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. THERE
WILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. HIGHS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
SATURDAY AS WELL. WENT WITH THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE THEN RAISED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 333 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH PUSHING EAST NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE MONTANA ROCKIES SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER LEE SIDE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING.
INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL SEE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING.

P-TYPE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING STILL LOOKING
LIKE A MIX. MODELS SPREADS ARE LARGE REGARDING PLACEMENT OF QPF
WHICH LEADS TO A TRICKY POP FORECAST. MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT A
GREATER CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL ND NEAR THE TRACK OF
A LEAD S/WV IMPULSE. REGARDLESS A BLEND OF MODELS/BUFKIT ALL
INDICATE ENOUGH WARM AIR (+0C) ALOFT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR SURGE DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIG FACTOR AS TO
IF THERE WILL BE A THREAT OR NOT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE
HOW.

COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 12Z SUNDAY AND ON
ENDING ANY MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

NEXT WEATHER IMPACT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE STRONG
WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY
NIGHT PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR BLOWING
SNOW IMPACTS...THINK IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AS THE CURRENT SNOWPACK WILL HAVE CRUSTED WITH THE
WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WARMER
THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH BOTH SOLUTIONS NOW BRINGING UPPER RIDGING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHIFT WAS REFLECTED
IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 20-30 FOR NEXT FRIDAY. IF MODEL OUTPUT
STAYS THE COURSE WITH A WESTERLY/ZONAL FLOW PROMOTING A
WARM/DOWNSLOPE FLOW...20-30 MAY BE MUCH TOO COLD OF A FORECAST.
FOR NOW OPTED TO REFLECT THE PATTERN CHANGE AND SEE IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LCL IFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT AS PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS. WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING TO INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR NOW AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND TIMING IS
STILL IN QUESTION. LIGHT RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NO VIS RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 212133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 333 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NORTH DAKOTA REMAINS IN A MILD AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WARM
FRONT ACROSS MANITOBA AND A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
WARMEST AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S. BUT EVEN OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHS TODAY HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MID 40S. EXPECT MODERATE SNOW MELT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
MILD AIR AND BELIEVE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FROM SNOW MELT AND RIVER/LAKE
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL LOOSE IS PUSH AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING
ACROSS MONTANA/WYOMING DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN
AND PULL DOWN SLOPE AIR ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. THERE
WILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. HIGHS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
SATURDAY AS WELL. WENT WITH THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE THEN RAISED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 333 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH PUSHING EAST NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE MONTANA ROCKIES SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER LEE SIDE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING.
INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL SEE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING.

P-TYPE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING STILL LOOKING
LIKE A MIX. MODELS SPREADS ARE LARGE REGARDING PLACEMENT OF QPF
WHICH LEADS TO A TRICKY POP FORECAST. MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT A
GREATER CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL ND NEAR THE TRACK OF
A LEAD S/WV IMPULSE. REGARDLESS A BLEND OF MODELS/BUFKIT ALL
INDICATE ENOUGH WARM AIR (+0C) ALOFT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR SURGE DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIG FACTOR AS TO
IF THERE WILL BE A THREAT OR NOT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE
HOW.

COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 12Z SUNDAY AND ON
ENDING ANY MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

NEXT WEATHER IMPACT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE STRONG
WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY
NIGHT PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR BLOWING
SNOW IMPACTS...THINK IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AS THE CURRENT SNOWPACK WILL HAVE CRUSTED WITH THE
WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WARMER
THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH BOTH SOLUTIONS NOW BRINGING UPPER RIDGING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHIFT WAS REFLECTED
IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 20-30 FOR NEXT FRIDAY. IF MODEL OUTPUT
STAYS THE COURSE WITH A WESTERLY/ZONAL FLOW PROMOTING A
WARM/DOWNSLOPE FLOW...20-30 MAY BE MUCH TOO COLD OF A FORECAST.
FOR NOW OPTED TO REFLECT THE PATTERN CHANGE AND SEE IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 333 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A MILD AND DRY SOUTHWEST AIRFLOW WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. MODERATE SNOW MELT ACROSS THE SOUTH MAY RESULT IN SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BUT TO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA










000
FXUS63 KBIS 211822
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1222 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

WILL AGAIN REVISIT THE MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. VERY GOOD MIXING
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. THINKING LOWER 50S NORTH
CENTRAL A GOOD BET THIS AFTERNOON. RAISED HIGHS ABOUT 2 TO 4
DEGREES MOST AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

GOOD SOUTHWEST MIXING WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO
THE LOWER 30S SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL. THIS LOOKS GOOD FOR
HIGHS AROUND 40 TODAY. ONLY UPDATE WAS TO CLOUDS TO INDICATE MORE
SUNSHINE TODAY AND RAISED TEMPS A DEGREE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST. FARTHER EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS (WHICH OCCURRED BEFORE
MIDNIGHT) IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY SCATTERED MID AND THIN HIGH CLOUDS
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. FOR THE
UPDATE LOWERED SKY COVER MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER. THE WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AROUND NOON. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...AND AROUND 40 FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT...BUT COLD AIR
INTRUSION IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AGAIN IN THE WEST TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

AFTER A MILD START ON SATURDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE MONTANA ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER LEE SIDE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...COUPLED WITH A S/WV
RIDGE MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN
MILD DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY...MID/UPPER 30S MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW
LOW 40S POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST.

WITH INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZING IN THE AFTERNOON WEST.
WILL KEEP P-TYPE AS ALL RAIN WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH
800-750MB ABOVE FREEZING.

FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND P-TYPE
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING TO GENERALLY SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN BY 00 UTC SUNDAY AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL ND/SE MANITOBA BY 12 UTC SUNDAY...THE GREATEST
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST FROM THE WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SATURDAY EVENING. FORECAST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PROFILES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AT
MINOT AND DEVILS LAKE. FARTHER SOUTH...GLOBAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY
DRY...BUT THE LATEST 21 NOV 06 UTC NAM IS DEPICTING AN AREA OF WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION SPREADING WEST TO EAST AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO
THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIG FACTOR
AS TO IF THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH
IF THE NAM SHOULD VERIFY. FOR THE TIME BEING USED A MODEL BLEND
WHICH KEEPS PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
THIS DOES RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
EVENING...INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME THE MORE
FAVORABLE AREA FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF WEST/CENTRAL ND WITH FORECAST QPF ON AVERAGE
CLOSER TO A TRACE TO THE SOUTH.

COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY AND
MODELS ARE NOT SPREADING THE QPF AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...THUS WILL
NOT MENTION ANY MIX AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY. WILL MENTION THE WINTRY MIX
IN THE HWO SATURDAY NIGHT AND CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL RUNS OVER THE
COMING DAYS.

NEXT WEATHER IMPACT QUICKLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE
STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR BLOWING SNOW
IMPACTS...THINK IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE CURRENT SNOWPACK SHOULD HAVE CRUSTED WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR LASTING
INTO THANKSGIVING. LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME RESOLVING THE COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT THANKSGIVING WILL BE COLD...BUT THEY HAVE
FLIPPED THEIR SOLUTIONS BEYOND WITH THE ECMWF NOW BRINGING UPPER
RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS IT COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

DRY SOUTHWEST AIRFLOW EXPECTED AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT. VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 211551
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

GOOD SOUTHWEST MIXING WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO
THE LOWER 30S SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL. THIS LOOKS GOOD FOR
HIGHS AROUND 40 TODAY. ONLY UPDATE WAS TO CLOUDS TO INDICATE MORE
SUNSHINE TODAY AND RAISED TEMPS A DEGREE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST. FARTHER EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS (WHICH OCCURRED BEFORE
MIDNIGHT) IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY SCATTERED MID AND THIN HIGH CLOUDS
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. FOR THE
UPDATE LOWERED SKY COVER MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER. THE WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AROUND NOON. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...AND AROUND 40 FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT...BUT COLD AIR
INTRUSION IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AGAIN IN THE WEST TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

AFTER A MILD START ON SATURDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE MONTANA ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER LEE SIDE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...COUPLED WITH A S/WV
RIDGE MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN
MILD DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY...MID/UPPER 30S MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW
LOW 40S POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST.

WITH INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZING IN THE AFTERNOON WEST.
WILL KEEP P-TYPE AS ALL RAIN WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH
800-750MB ABOVE FREEZING.

FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND P-TYPE
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING TO GENERALLY SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN BY 00 UTC SUNDAY AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL ND/SE MANITOBA BY 12 UTC SUNDAY...THE GREATEST
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST FROM THE WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SATURDAY EVENING. FORECAST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PROFILES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AT
MINOT AND DEVILS LAKE. FARTHER SOUTH...GLOBAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY
DRY...BUT THE LATEST 21 NOV 06 UTC NAM IS DEPICTING AN AREA OF WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION SPREADING WEST TO EAST AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO
THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIG FACTOR
AS TO IF THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH
IF THE NAM SHOULD VERIFY. FOR THE TIME BEING USED A MODEL BLEND
WHICH KEEPS PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
THIS DOES RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
EVENING...INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME THE MORE
FAVORABLE AREA FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF WEST/CENTRAL ND WITH FORECAST QPF ON AVERAGE
CLOSER TO A TRACE TO THE SOUTH.

COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY AND
MODELS ARE NOT SPREADING THE QPF AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...THUS WILL
NOT MENTION ANY MIX AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY. WILL MENTION THE WINTRY MIX
IN THE HWO SATURDAY NIGHT AND CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL RUNS OVER THE
COMING DAYS.

NEXT WEATHER IMPACT QUICKLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE
STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR BLOWING SNOW
IMPACTS...THINK IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE CURRENT SNOWPACK SHOULD HAVE CRUSTED WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR LASTING
INTO THANKSGIVING. LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME RESOLVING THE COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT THANKSGIVING WILL BE COLD...BUT THEY HAVE
FLIPPED THEIR SOLUTIONS BEYOND WITH THE ECMWF NOW BRINGING UPPER
RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS IT COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 946 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 211551
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

GOOD SOUTHWEST MIXING WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO
THE LOWER 30S SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL. THIS LOOKS GOOD FOR
HIGHS AROUND 40 TODAY. ONLY UPDATE WAS TO CLOUDS TO INDICATE MORE
SUNSHINE TODAY AND RAISED TEMPS A DEGREE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST. FARTHER EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS (WHICH OCCURRED BEFORE
MIDNIGHT) IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY SCATTERED MID AND THIN HIGH CLOUDS
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. FOR THE
UPDATE LOWERED SKY COVER MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER. THE WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AROUND NOON. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...AND AROUND 40 FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT...BUT COLD AIR
INTRUSION IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AGAIN IN THE WEST TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

AFTER A MILD START ON SATURDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE MONTANA ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER LEE SIDE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...COUPLED WITH A S/WV
RIDGE MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN
MILD DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY...MID/UPPER 30S MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW
LOW 40S POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST.

WITH INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZING IN THE AFTERNOON WEST.
WILL KEEP P-TYPE AS ALL RAIN WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH
800-750MB ABOVE FREEZING.

FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND P-TYPE
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING TO GENERALLY SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN BY 00 UTC SUNDAY AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL ND/SE MANITOBA BY 12 UTC SUNDAY...THE GREATEST
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST FROM THE WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SATURDAY EVENING. FORECAST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PROFILES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AT
MINOT AND DEVILS LAKE. FARTHER SOUTH...GLOBAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY
DRY...BUT THE LATEST 21 NOV 06 UTC NAM IS DEPICTING AN AREA OF WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION SPREADING WEST TO EAST AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO
THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIG FACTOR
AS TO IF THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH
IF THE NAM SHOULD VERIFY. FOR THE TIME BEING USED A MODEL BLEND
WHICH KEEPS PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
THIS DOES RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
EVENING...INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME THE MORE
FAVORABLE AREA FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF WEST/CENTRAL ND WITH FORECAST QPF ON AVERAGE
CLOSER TO A TRACE TO THE SOUTH.

COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY AND
MODELS ARE NOT SPREADING THE QPF AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...THUS WILL
NOT MENTION ANY MIX AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY. WILL MENTION THE WINTRY MIX
IN THE HWO SATURDAY NIGHT AND CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL RUNS OVER THE
COMING DAYS.

NEXT WEATHER IMPACT QUICKLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE
STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR BLOWING SNOW
IMPACTS...THINK IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE CURRENT SNOWPACK SHOULD HAVE CRUSTED WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR LASTING
INTO THANKSGIVING. LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME RESOLVING THE COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT THANKSGIVING WILL BE COLD...BUT THEY HAVE
FLIPPED THEIR SOLUTIONS BEYOND WITH THE ECMWF NOW BRINGING UPPER
RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS IT COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 946 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 211551
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

GOOD SOUTHWEST MIXING WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO
THE LOWER 30S SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL. THIS LOOKS GOOD FOR
HIGHS AROUND 40 TODAY. ONLY UPDATE WAS TO CLOUDS TO INDICATE MORE
SUNSHINE TODAY AND RAISED TEMPS A DEGREE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST. FARTHER EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS (WHICH OCCURRED BEFORE
MIDNIGHT) IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY SCATTERED MID AND THIN HIGH CLOUDS
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. FOR THE
UPDATE LOWERED SKY COVER MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER. THE WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AROUND NOON. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...AND AROUND 40 FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT...BUT COLD AIR
INTRUSION IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AGAIN IN THE WEST TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

AFTER A MILD START ON SATURDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE MONTANA ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER LEE SIDE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...COUPLED WITH A S/WV
RIDGE MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN
MILD DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY...MID/UPPER 30S MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW
LOW 40S POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST.

WITH INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZING IN THE AFTERNOON WEST.
WILL KEEP P-TYPE AS ALL RAIN WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH
800-750MB ABOVE FREEZING.

FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND P-TYPE
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING TO GENERALLY SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN BY 00 UTC SUNDAY AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL ND/SE MANITOBA BY 12 UTC SUNDAY...THE GREATEST
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST FROM THE WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SATURDAY EVENING. FORECAST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PROFILES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AT
MINOT AND DEVILS LAKE. FARTHER SOUTH...GLOBAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY
DRY...BUT THE LATEST 21 NOV 06 UTC NAM IS DEPICTING AN AREA OF WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION SPREADING WEST TO EAST AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO
THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIG FACTOR
AS TO IF THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH
IF THE NAM SHOULD VERIFY. FOR THE TIME BEING USED A MODEL BLEND
WHICH KEEPS PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
THIS DOES RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
EVENING...INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME THE MORE
FAVORABLE AREA FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF WEST/CENTRAL ND WITH FORECAST QPF ON AVERAGE
CLOSER TO A TRACE TO THE SOUTH.

COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY AND
MODELS ARE NOT SPREADING THE QPF AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...THUS WILL
NOT MENTION ANY MIX AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY. WILL MENTION THE WINTRY MIX
IN THE HWO SATURDAY NIGHT AND CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL RUNS OVER THE
COMING DAYS.

NEXT WEATHER IMPACT QUICKLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE
STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR BLOWING SNOW
IMPACTS...THINK IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE CURRENT SNOWPACK SHOULD HAVE CRUSTED WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR LASTING
INTO THANKSGIVING. LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME RESOLVING THE COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT THANKSGIVING WILL BE COLD...BUT THEY HAVE
FLIPPED THEIR SOLUTIONS BEYOND WITH THE ECMWF NOW BRINGING UPPER
RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS IT COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 946 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 211551
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

GOOD SOUTHWEST MIXING WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO
THE LOWER 30S SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL. THIS LOOKS GOOD FOR
HIGHS AROUND 40 TODAY. ONLY UPDATE WAS TO CLOUDS TO INDICATE MORE
SUNSHINE TODAY AND RAISED TEMPS A DEGREE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST. FARTHER EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS (WHICH OCCURRED BEFORE
MIDNIGHT) IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY SCATTERED MID AND THIN HIGH CLOUDS
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. FOR THE
UPDATE LOWERED SKY COVER MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER. THE WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AROUND NOON. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...AND AROUND 40 FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT...BUT COLD AIR
INTRUSION IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AGAIN IN THE WEST TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

AFTER A MILD START ON SATURDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE MONTANA ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER LEE SIDE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...COUPLED WITH A S/WV
RIDGE MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN
MILD DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY...MID/UPPER 30S MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW
LOW 40S POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST.

WITH INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZING IN THE AFTERNOON WEST.
WILL KEEP P-TYPE AS ALL RAIN WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH
800-750MB ABOVE FREEZING.

FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND P-TYPE
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING TO GENERALLY SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN BY 00 UTC SUNDAY AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL ND/SE MANITOBA BY 12 UTC SUNDAY...THE GREATEST
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST FROM THE WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SATURDAY EVENING. FORECAST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PROFILES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AT
MINOT AND DEVILS LAKE. FARTHER SOUTH...GLOBAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY
DRY...BUT THE LATEST 21 NOV 06 UTC NAM IS DEPICTING AN AREA OF WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION SPREADING WEST TO EAST AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO
THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIG FACTOR
AS TO IF THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH
IF THE NAM SHOULD VERIFY. FOR THE TIME BEING USED A MODEL BLEND
WHICH KEEPS PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
THIS DOES RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
EVENING...INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME THE MORE
FAVORABLE AREA FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF WEST/CENTRAL ND WITH FORECAST QPF ON AVERAGE
CLOSER TO A TRACE TO THE SOUTH.

COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY AND
MODELS ARE NOT SPREADING THE QPF AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...THUS WILL
NOT MENTION ANY MIX AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY. WILL MENTION THE WINTRY MIX
IN THE HWO SATURDAY NIGHT AND CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL RUNS OVER THE
COMING DAYS.

NEXT WEATHER IMPACT QUICKLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE
STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR BLOWING SNOW
IMPACTS...THINK IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE CURRENT SNOWPACK SHOULD HAVE CRUSTED WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR LASTING
INTO THANKSGIVING. LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME RESOLVING THE COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT THANKSGIVING WILL BE COLD...BUT THEY HAVE
FLIPPED THEIR SOLUTIONS BEYOND WITH THE ECMWF NOW BRINGING UPPER
RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS IT COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 946 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 211234
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST. FARTHER EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS (WHICH OCCURRED BEFORE
MIDNIGHT) IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY SCATTERED MID AND THIN HIGH CLOUDS
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. FOR THE
UPDATE LOWERED SKY COVER MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER. THE WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AROUND NOON. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...AND AROUND 40 FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT...BUT COLD AIR
INTRUSION IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AGAIN IN THE WEST TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

AFTER A MILD START ON SATURDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE MONTANA ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER LEE SIDE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...COUPLED WITH A S/WV
RIDGE MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN
MILD DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY...MID/UPPER 30S MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW
LOW 40S POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST.

WITH INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZING IN THE AFTERNOON WEST.
WILL KEEP P-TYPE AS ALL RAIN WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH
800-750MB ABOVE FREEZING.

FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND P-TYPE
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING TO GENERALLY SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN BY 00 UTC SUNDAY AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL ND/SE MANITOBA BY 12 UTC SUNDAY...THE GREATEST
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST FROM THE WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SATURDAY EVENING. FORECAST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PROFILES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AT
MINOT AND DEVILS LAKE. FARTHER SOUTH...GLOBAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY
DRY...BUT THE LATEST 21 NOV 06 UTC NAM IS DEPICTING AN AREA OF WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION SPREADING WEST TO EAST AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO
THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIG FACTOR
AS TO IF THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH
IF THE NAM SHOULD VERIFY. FOR THE TIME BEING USED A MODEL BLEND
WHICH KEEPS PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
THIS DOES RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
EVENING...INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME THE MORE
FAVORABLE AREA FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF WEST/CENTRAL ND WITH FORECAST QPF ON AVERAGE
CLOSER TO A TRACE TO THE SOUTH.

COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY AND
MODELS ARE NOT SPREADING THE QPF AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...THUS WILL
NOT MENTION ANY MIX AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY. WILL MENTION THE WINTRY MIX
IN THE HWO SATURDAY NIGHT AND CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL RUNS OVER THE
COMING DAYS.

NEXT WEATHER IMPACT QUICKLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE
STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR BLOWING SNOW
IMPACTS...THINK IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE CURRENT SNOWPACK SHOULD HAVE CRUSTED WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR LASTING
INTO THANKSGIVING. LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME RESOLVING THE COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT THANKSGIVING WILL BE COLD...BUT THEY HAVE
FLIPPED THEIR SOLUTIONS BEYOND WITH THE ECMWF NOW BRINGING UPPER
RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS IT COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITH
TIME DURING THE DAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 211234
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST. FARTHER EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS (WHICH OCCURRED BEFORE
MIDNIGHT) IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY SCATTERED MID AND THIN HIGH CLOUDS
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. FOR THE
UPDATE LOWERED SKY COVER MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER. THE WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AROUND NOON. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...AND AROUND 40 FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT...BUT COLD AIR
INTRUSION IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AGAIN IN THE WEST TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

AFTER A MILD START ON SATURDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE MONTANA ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER LEE SIDE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...COUPLED WITH A S/WV
RIDGE MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN
MILD DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY...MID/UPPER 30S MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW
LOW 40S POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST.

WITH INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZING IN THE AFTERNOON WEST.
WILL KEEP P-TYPE AS ALL RAIN WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH
800-750MB ABOVE FREEZING.

FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND P-TYPE
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING TO GENERALLY SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN BY 00 UTC SUNDAY AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL ND/SE MANITOBA BY 12 UTC SUNDAY...THE GREATEST
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST FROM THE WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SATURDAY EVENING. FORECAST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PROFILES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AT
MINOT AND DEVILS LAKE. FARTHER SOUTH...GLOBAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY
DRY...BUT THE LATEST 21 NOV 06 UTC NAM IS DEPICTING AN AREA OF WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION SPREADING WEST TO EAST AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO
THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIG FACTOR
AS TO IF THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH
IF THE NAM SHOULD VERIFY. FOR THE TIME BEING USED A MODEL BLEND
WHICH KEEPS PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
THIS DOES RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
EVENING...INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME THE MORE
FAVORABLE AREA FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF WEST/CENTRAL ND WITH FORECAST QPF ON AVERAGE
CLOSER TO A TRACE TO THE SOUTH.

COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY AND
MODELS ARE NOT SPREADING THE QPF AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...THUS WILL
NOT MENTION ANY MIX AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY. WILL MENTION THE WINTRY MIX
IN THE HWO SATURDAY NIGHT AND CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL RUNS OVER THE
COMING DAYS.

NEXT WEATHER IMPACT QUICKLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE
STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR BLOWING SNOW
IMPACTS...THINK IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE CURRENT SNOWPACK SHOULD HAVE CRUSTED WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR LASTING
INTO THANKSGIVING. LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME RESOLVING THE COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT THANKSGIVING WILL BE COLD...BUT THEY HAVE
FLIPPED THEIR SOLUTIONS BEYOND WITH THE ECMWF NOW BRINGING UPPER
RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS IT COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITH
TIME DURING THE DAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 210933
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER. THE WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AROUND NOON. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...AND AROUND 40 FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT...BUT COLD AIR
INTRUSION IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AGAIN IN THE WEST TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

AFTER A MILD START ON SATURDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE MONTANA ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER LEE SIDE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...COUPLED WITH A S/WV
RIDGE MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN
MILD DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY...MID/UPPER 30S MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW
LOW 40S POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST.

WITH INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZING IN THE AFTERNOON WEST.
WILL KEEP P-TYPE AS ALL RAIN WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH
800-750MB ABOVE FREEZING.

FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND P-TYPE
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING TO GENERALLY SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN BY 00 UTC SUNDAY AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL ND/SE MANITOBA BY 12 UTC SUNDAY...THE GREATEST
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST FROM THE WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SATURDAY EVENING. FORECAST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PROFILES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AT
MINOT AND DEVILS LAKE. FARTHER SOUTH...GLOBAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY
DRY...BUT THE LATEST 21 NOV 06 UTC NAM IS DEPICTING AN AREA OF WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION SPREADING WEST TO EAST AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO
THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIG FACTOR
AS TO IF THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH
IF THE NAM SHOULD VERIFY. FOR THE TIME BEING USED A MODEL BLEND
WHICH KEEPS PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
THIS DOES RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
EVENING...INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME THE MORE
FAVORABLE AREA FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF WEST/CENTRAL ND WITH FORECAST QPF ON AVERAGE
CLOSER TO A TRACE TO THE SOUTH.

COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY AND
MODELS ARE NOT SPREADING THE QPF AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...THUS WILL
NOT MENTION ANY MIX AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY. WILL MENTION THE WINTRY MIX
IN THE HWO SATURDAY NIGHT AND CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL RUNS OVER THE
COMING DAYS.

NEXT WEATHER IMPACT QUICKLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE
STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR BLOWING SNOW
IMPACTS...THINK IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE CURRENT SNOWPACK SHOULD HAVE CRUSTED WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR LASTING
INTO THANKSGIVING. LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME RESOLVING THE COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT THANKSGIVING WILL BE COLD...BUT THEY HAVE
FLIPPED THEIR SOLUTIONS BEYOND WITH THE ECMWF NOW BRINGING UPPER
RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS IT COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

AT 06Z AN AREA OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WAS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE KBIS AND KJMS
TERMINALS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED...AND HAVE TEMPO CIGS AT 700 FEET
AND 1200 FEET. ONLY MADE MENTION OF SCT 1200 FT AT KMOT. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS AS SOUTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER ON FRIDAY WITH
MAINLY BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITH TIME
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210933
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER. THE WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AROUND NOON. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...AND AROUND 40 FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT...BUT COLD AIR
INTRUSION IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AGAIN IN THE WEST TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

AFTER A MILD START ON SATURDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE MONTANA ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER LEE SIDE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...COUPLED WITH A S/WV
RIDGE MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN
MILD DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY...MID/UPPER 30S MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW
LOW 40S POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST.

WITH INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZING IN THE AFTERNOON WEST.
WILL KEEP P-TYPE AS ALL RAIN WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH
800-750MB ABOVE FREEZING.

FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND P-TYPE
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING TO GENERALLY SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN BY 00 UTC SUNDAY AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL ND/SE MANITOBA BY 12 UTC SUNDAY...THE GREATEST
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST FROM THE WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SATURDAY EVENING. FORECAST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PROFILES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AT
MINOT AND DEVILS LAKE. FARTHER SOUTH...GLOBAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY
DRY...BUT THE LATEST 21 NOV 06 UTC NAM IS DEPICTING AN AREA OF WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION SPREADING WEST TO EAST AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO
THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIG FACTOR
AS TO IF THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH
IF THE NAM SHOULD VERIFY. FOR THE TIME BEING USED A MODEL BLEND
WHICH KEEPS PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
THIS DOES RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
EVENING...INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME THE MORE
FAVORABLE AREA FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF WEST/CENTRAL ND WITH FORECAST QPF ON AVERAGE
CLOSER TO A TRACE TO THE SOUTH.

COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY AND
MODELS ARE NOT SPREADING THE QPF AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...THUS WILL
NOT MENTION ANY MIX AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY. WILL MENTION THE WINTRY MIX
IN THE HWO SATURDAY NIGHT AND CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL RUNS OVER THE
COMING DAYS.

NEXT WEATHER IMPACT QUICKLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE
STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR BLOWING SNOW
IMPACTS...THINK IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE CURRENT SNOWPACK SHOULD HAVE CRUSTED WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR LASTING
INTO THANKSGIVING. LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME RESOLVING THE COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT THANKSGIVING WILL BE COLD...BUT THEY HAVE
FLIPPED THEIR SOLUTIONS BEYOND WITH THE ECMWF NOW BRINGING UPPER
RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS IT COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

AT 06Z AN AREA OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WAS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE KBIS AND KJMS
TERMINALS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED...AND HAVE TEMPO CIGS AT 700 FEET
AND 1200 FEET. ONLY MADE MENTION OF SCT 1200 FT AT KMOT. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS AS SOUTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER ON FRIDAY WITH
MAINLY BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITH TIME
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 210629
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1229 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP IN THE LOWER 20S IN THE
SOUTHWEST...WHILE TEMPERATURES IN THE JAMES VALLEY WERE AROUND 10
ABOVE ZERO. AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WAS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND
IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN AREAL EXTENT WITH TIME DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS...AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN CHANGE FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST TIMING ON
CLOUD COVER AS AND AREA OF LOW STRATUS WORKS ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE HIGHER
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SOME SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS IN CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT TREND OF HIGH
CLOUDS SHIFTING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND A SMALL BAND OF
LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO SNEAK THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 304 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

A STRATUS DECK OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS BEGINNING TO ERODE AS
VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL LOWS ARE STILL
FORECAST...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO SET UP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 304 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A MILD START ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE MONTANA ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER LEE SIDE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...COUPLED WITH A S/WV
RIDGE MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN
MILD DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY...MID/UPPER 30S MANY LOCATIONS. LOW 40S
ARE NOT UNREACHABLE BUT FOR NOW OPTED TO KEEP HIGHS BELOW 40F WITH
SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND SKY COVER UNCERTAINTY.

INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZING IN THE AFTERNOON WEST. WILL KEEP
P-TYPE AS ALL RAIN WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH 800-750MB
ABOVE FREEZING.

FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY REGARDING P-TYPE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAA PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST AND SFC
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AT OR BELOW THE FREEZING POINT. BLEND OF
MODELS/BUFKIT INDICATES THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARM AIR (+0C) ALOFT TO
PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIP AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR
SURGE...EITHER IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. AT THIS TIME
THE MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WEST/CENTRAL ND WITH FORECAST QPF ON AVERAGE
CLOSER TO A TRACE TO THE SOUTH.

COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY
ENDING ANY FREEZING PRECIP THREAT IF IT EVER DEVELOPS AT ALL WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVING INTO EASTERN ND. WILL MENTION THE
WINTRY MIX IN THE HWO AND CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL RUNS OVER THE
COMING DAYS.

NEXT WEATHER IMPACT QUICKLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY PERIOD
AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR BLOWING SNOW
IMPACTS...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW WARM WE GET FRI-SAT AND HOW MUCH SNOW
FALLS ON SUNDAY.

AFTERWARDS...MONDAY-THURSDAY...A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
MAINTAINED KEEPING COLDER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ANY
EMBEDDED WAVE COULD TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS SO KEPT A MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. INTERESTING AS WE NEAR THANKSGIVING WITH THE LATEST 12Z
GFS NOW SPREADING WAA ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
MAINTAINS STRONG CAA. LETS HOPE THE FIRST VERIFIES...BUT
CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF LED ME TO KEEP A COLDER FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

AT 06Z AN AREA OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WAS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE KBIS AND KJMS
TERMINALS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED...AND HAVE TEMPO CIGS AT 700 FEET
AND 1200 FEET. ONLY MADE MENTION OF SCT 1200 FT AT KMOT. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS AS SOUTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER ON FRIDAY WITH
MAINLY BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITH TIME
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210629
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1229 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP IN THE LOWER 20S IN THE
SOUTHWEST...WHILE TEMPERATURES IN THE JAMES VALLEY WERE AROUND 10
ABOVE ZERO. AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WAS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND
IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN AREAL EXTENT WITH TIME DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS...AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN CHANGE FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST TIMING ON
CLOUD COVER AS AND AREA OF LOW STRATUS WORKS ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE HIGHER
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SOME SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS IN CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT TREND OF HIGH
CLOUDS SHIFTING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND A SMALL BAND OF
LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO SNEAK THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 304 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

A STRATUS DECK OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS BEGINNING TO ERODE AS
VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL LOWS ARE STILL
FORECAST...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO SET UP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 304 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A MILD START ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE MONTANA ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER LEE SIDE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...COUPLED WITH A S/WV
RIDGE MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN
MILD DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY...MID/UPPER 30S MANY LOCATIONS. LOW 40S
ARE NOT UNREACHABLE BUT FOR NOW OPTED TO KEEP HIGHS BELOW 40F WITH
SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND SKY COVER UNCERTAINTY.

INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZING IN THE AFTERNOON WEST. WILL KEEP
P-TYPE AS ALL RAIN WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH 800-750MB
ABOVE FREEZING.

FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY REGARDING P-TYPE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAA PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST AND SFC
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AT OR BELOW THE FREEZING POINT. BLEND OF
MODELS/BUFKIT INDICATES THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARM AIR (+0C) ALOFT TO
PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIP AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR
SURGE...EITHER IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. AT THIS TIME
THE MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WEST/CENTRAL ND WITH FORECAST QPF ON AVERAGE
CLOSER TO A TRACE TO THE SOUTH.

COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY
ENDING ANY FREEZING PRECIP THREAT IF IT EVER DEVELOPS AT ALL WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVING INTO EASTERN ND. WILL MENTION THE
WINTRY MIX IN THE HWO AND CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL RUNS OVER THE
COMING DAYS.

NEXT WEATHER IMPACT QUICKLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY PERIOD
AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR BLOWING SNOW
IMPACTS...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW WARM WE GET FRI-SAT AND HOW MUCH SNOW
FALLS ON SUNDAY.

AFTERWARDS...MONDAY-THURSDAY...A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
MAINTAINED KEEPING COLDER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ANY
EMBEDDED WAVE COULD TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS SO KEPT A MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. INTERESTING AS WE NEAR THANKSGIVING WITH THE LATEST 12Z
GFS NOW SPREADING WAA ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
MAINTAINS STRONG CAA. LETS HOPE THE FIRST VERIFIES...BUT
CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF LED ME TO KEEP A COLDER FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

AT 06Z AN AREA OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WAS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE KBIS AND KJMS
TERMINALS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED...AND HAVE TEMPO CIGS AT 700 FEET
AND 1200 FEET. ONLY MADE MENTION OF SCT 1200 FT AT KMOT. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS AS SOUTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER ON FRIDAY WITH
MAINLY BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITH TIME
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 210325
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
925 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN CHANGE FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST TIMING ON
CLOUD COVER AS AND AREA OF LOW STRATUS WORKS ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE HIGHER
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SOME SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS IN CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT TREND OF HIGH
CLOUDS SHIFTING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND A SMALL BAND OF
LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO SNEAK THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 304 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

A STRATUS DECK OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS BEGINNING TO ERODE AS
VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL LOWS ARE STILL
FORECAST...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS.

DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO SET UP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 304 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A MILD START ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE MONTANA ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER LEE SIDE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...COUPLED WITH A S/WV
RIDGE MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN
MILD DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY...MID/UPPER 30S MANY LOCATIONS. LOW 40S
ARE NOT UNREACHABLE BUT FOR NOW OPTED TO KEEP HIGHS BELOW 40F WITH
SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND SKY COVER UNCERTAINTY.

INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZING IN THE AFTERNOON WEST. WILL KEEP
P-TYPE AS ALL RAIN WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH 800-750MB
ABOVE FREEZING.

FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY REGARDING P-TYPE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAA PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST AND SFC
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AT OR BELOW THE FREEZING POINT. BLEND OF
MODELS/BUFKIT INDICATES THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARM AIR (+0C) ALOFT TO
PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIP AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR
SURGE...EITHER IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. AT THIS TIME
THE MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WEST/CENTRAL ND WITH FORECAST QPF ON AVERAGE
CLOSER TO A TRACE TO THE SOUTH.

COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY
ENDING ANY FREEZING PRECIP THREAT IF IT EVER DEVELOPS AT ALL WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVING INTO EASTERN ND. WILL MENTION THE
WINTRY MIX IN THE HWO AND CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL RUNS OVER THE
COMING DAYS.

NEXT WEATHER IMPACT QUICKLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY PERIOD
AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR BLOWING SNOW
IMPACTS...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW WARM WE GET FRI-SAT AND HOW MUCH SNOW
FALLS ON SUNDAY.

AFTERWARDS...MONDAY-THURSDAY...A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
MAINTAINED KEEPING COLDER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ANY
EMBEDDED WAVE COULD TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS SO KEPT A MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. INTERESTING AS WE NEAR THANKSGIVING WITH THE LATEST 12Z
GFS NOW SPREADING WAA ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
MAINTAINS STRONG CAA. LETS HOPE THE FIRST VERIFIES...BUT
CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF LED ME TO KEEP A COLDER FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KBIS TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS







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