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000
FXUS63 KBIS 182139
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
339 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM NEAR THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LINE TOWARDS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES UPPER LOW PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLIDING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD LAYER OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY ERODE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER REMAINING
AREAS. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHILE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING
AS WEAK RIDGE MAKES ITS APPROACH. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED A 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY AND THEN
THE LARGE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. THE 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...HOWEVER PAST MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE...ONLY SLIGHT...OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY MELT THE
SNOW...HOWEVER BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL MOST
LIKELY REFREEZE THE PRECIPITATION INTO SLEET. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL COOL TO BELOW FREEZING AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING...CAUSING ANY
FALLING PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN...SNOW...AND RAIN. WITH ALL THAT SAID ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY KIND
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY...DEEPENS
AND PROPAGATES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS MAY
CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ONCE AGAIN
ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
TO SEE IF ANY MORE PRECIPITATION IS PUSHED INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES TOWARD THE EAST COAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL PROGRESSIVELY GET COLDER
WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGHOUT NORTH DAKOTA.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WITH IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 182139
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
339 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM NEAR THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LINE TOWARDS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES UPPER LOW PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLIDING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD LAYER OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY ERODE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER REMAINING
AREAS. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHILE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING
AS WEAK RIDGE MAKES ITS APPROACH. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED A 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY AND THEN
THE LARGE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. THE 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...HOWEVER PAST MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE...ONLY SLIGHT...OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY MELT THE
SNOW...HOWEVER BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL MOST
LIKELY REFREEZE THE PRECIPITATION INTO SLEET. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL COOL TO BELOW FREEZING AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING...CAUSING ANY
FALLING PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN...SNOW...AND RAIN. WITH ALL THAT SAID ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY KIND
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY...DEEPENS
AND PROPAGATES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS MAY
CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ONCE AGAIN
ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
TO SEE IF ANY MORE PRECIPITATION IS PUSHED INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES TOWARD THE EAST COAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL PROGRESSIVELY GET COLDER
WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGHOUT NORTH DAKOTA.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WITH IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 181832
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1232 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SOME LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE MAINLY THROUGH SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AHEAD OF IT. SOME CLEARING
IS STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BEHIND PROGRESSING UPPER LOW. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO REFLECT
THESE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS UPPER LOW
PASSES THROUGH. A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES...WHILE OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN OBSERVED.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL PRECIPITATION BEING ALL SNOW
BY MID-DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEAR
WILLISTON/NEWTOWN...MOVING EASTWARD. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS DEPICT
THE VORT/ARC OF THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING IN A CURVE FROM
NEWTOWN/WILLISTON EAST TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD WAHPETON. AS THIS AREA OF SNOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD...THE
INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED FROM MODERATE/HEAVY IN PLACES TO LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...AND NO
OTHER STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS FEATURE. LOW CLOUDS WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY MINOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS NEEDED ATTENTION THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
CENTERED/CIRCULATING NEAR WILLISTON THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...A VERY NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
PER LOCAL RADAR AND WEBCAMS EXTENDS FROM NEWTOWN...EAST INTO VELVA
AND SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MCCLUSKY. THE GFS40 850-700MB 1.5 PVU ATOP A
850MB FRONTOGENESIS AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DEVELOPED
A NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EARLIER THIS
MORNING. ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH CERTAINLY REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AS AN EARLIER REPORT OF A HALF INCH OCCURRED NEAR
HALLIDAY ON HIGHWAY 8. THE BAND WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN
BORDER THROUGH 12Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISSUING NOWCASTS TO COVER
THIS FEATURE.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...REACHING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z. THE
LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF
OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE
ACROSS KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE TEMPERATURE...SOME SNOW PRODUCTION WILL
RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER EXPECT THOSE AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AS THE STRONGEST LIFT REMAINS WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT AREA. AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. ALL ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRY FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST. HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES DEPICT WARMING ALOFT AT TIMES THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
FREEZING MARK - BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING - WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. CLOUDS
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ICE CRYSTALS FALLING
FROM MID CLOUDS AT TIMES AND NO MID CLOUDS AT TIMES. THIS SUGGESTS A
MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE. LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE
SUNDAY...THEN IT DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS AS IT REACHES MINNESOTA/IOWA ON
MONDAY...AND TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXED WITH
RAIN OR SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE LARGE
TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(CHRISTMAS EVE) LOOK TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEAR TO BE FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGHOUT NORTH DAKOTA.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WITH IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 181832
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1232 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SOME LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE MAINLY THROUGH SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AHEAD OF IT. SOME CLEARING
IS STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BEHIND PROGRESSING UPPER LOW. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO REFLECT
THESE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS UPPER LOW
PASSES THROUGH. A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES...WHILE OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN OBSERVED.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL PRECIPITATION BEING ALL SNOW
BY MID-DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEAR
WILLISTON/NEWTOWN...MOVING EASTWARD. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS DEPICT
THE VORT/ARC OF THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING IN A CURVE FROM
NEWTOWN/WILLISTON EAST TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD WAHPETON. AS THIS AREA OF SNOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD...THE
INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED FROM MODERATE/HEAVY IN PLACES TO LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...AND NO
OTHER STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS FEATURE. LOW CLOUDS WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY MINOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS NEEDED ATTENTION THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
CENTERED/CIRCULATING NEAR WILLISTON THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...A VERY NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
PER LOCAL RADAR AND WEBCAMS EXTENDS FROM NEWTOWN...EAST INTO VELVA
AND SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MCCLUSKY. THE GFS40 850-700MB 1.5 PVU ATOP A
850MB FRONTOGENESIS AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DEVELOPED
A NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EARLIER THIS
MORNING. ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH CERTAINLY REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AS AN EARLIER REPORT OF A HALF INCH OCCURRED NEAR
HALLIDAY ON HIGHWAY 8. THE BAND WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN
BORDER THROUGH 12Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISSUING NOWCASTS TO COVER
THIS FEATURE.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...REACHING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z. THE
LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF
OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE
ACROSS KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE TEMPERATURE...SOME SNOW PRODUCTION WILL
RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER EXPECT THOSE AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AS THE STRONGEST LIFT REMAINS WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT AREA. AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. ALL ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRY FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST. HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES DEPICT WARMING ALOFT AT TIMES THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
FREEZING MARK - BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING - WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. CLOUDS
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ICE CRYSTALS FALLING
FROM MID CLOUDS AT TIMES AND NO MID CLOUDS AT TIMES. THIS SUGGESTS A
MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE. LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE
SUNDAY...THEN IT DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS AS IT REACHES MINNESOTA/IOWA ON
MONDAY...AND TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXED WITH
RAIN OR SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE LARGE
TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(CHRISTMAS EVE) LOOK TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEAR TO BE FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGHOUT NORTH DAKOTA.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WITH IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS










000
FXUS63 KBIS 181549
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS UPPER LOW
PASSES THROUGH. A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES...WHILE OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN OBSERVED.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL PRECIPITATION BEING ALL SNOW
BY MID-DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEAR
WILLISTON/NEWTOWN...MOVING EASTWARD. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS DEPICT
THE VORT/ARC OF THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING IN A CURVE FROM
NEWTOWN/WILLISTON EAST TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD WAHPETON. AS THIS AREA OF SNOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD...THE
INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED FROM MODERATE/HEAVY IN PLACES TO LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...AND NO
OTHER STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS FEATURE. LOW CLOUDS WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY MINOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS NEEDED ATTENTION THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
CENTERED/CIRCULATING NEAR WILLISTON THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...A VERY NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
PER LOCAL RADAR AND WEBCAMS EXTENDS FROM NEWTOWN...EAST INTO VELVA
AND SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MCCLUSKY. THE GFS40 850-700MB 1.5 PVU ATOP A
850MB FRONTOGENESIS AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DEVELOPED
A NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EARLIER THIS
MORNING. ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH CERTAINLY REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AS AN EARLIER REPORT OF A HALF INCH OCCURRED NEAR
HALLIDAY ON HIGHWAY 8. THE BAND WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN
BORDER THROUGH 12Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISSUING NOWCASTS TO COVER
THIS FEATURE.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...REACHING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z. THE
LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF
OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE
ACROSS KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE TEMPERATURE...SOME SNOW PRODUCTION WILL
RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER EXPECT THOSE AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AS THE STRONGEST LIFT REMAINS WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT AREA. AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. ALL ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRY FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST. HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES DEPICT WARMING ALOFT AT TIMES THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
FREEZING MARK - BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING - WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. CLOUDS
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ICE CRYSTALS FALLING
FROM MID CLOUDS AT TIMES AND NO MID CLOUDS AT TIMES. THIS SUGGESTS A
MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE. LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE
SUNDAY...THEN IT DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS AS IT REACHES MINNESOTA/IOWA ON
MONDAY...AND TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXED WITH
RAIN OR SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE LARGE
TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(CHRISTMAS EVE) LOOK TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEAR TO BE FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TODAY AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS
IN FOG AT KDIK BEFORE CIGS LIFT TO IFR CIGS BY 15Z. IFR CIGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KISN/KBIS THROUGH 18Z-20Z BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT KMOT WITH KJMS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO MVFR BY 16Z
TODAY. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 181549
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS UPPER LOW
PASSES THROUGH. A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES...WHILE OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN OBSERVED.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL PRECIPITATION BEING ALL SNOW
BY MID-DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEAR
WILLISTON/NEWTOWN...MOVING EASTWARD. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS DEPICT
THE VORT/ARC OF THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING IN A CURVE FROM
NEWTOWN/WILLISTON EAST TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD WAHPETON. AS THIS AREA OF SNOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD...THE
INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED FROM MODERATE/HEAVY IN PLACES TO LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...AND NO
OTHER STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS FEATURE. LOW CLOUDS WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY MINOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS NEEDED ATTENTION THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
CENTERED/CIRCULATING NEAR WILLISTON THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...A VERY NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
PER LOCAL RADAR AND WEBCAMS EXTENDS FROM NEWTOWN...EAST INTO VELVA
AND SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MCCLUSKY. THE GFS40 850-700MB 1.5 PVU ATOP A
850MB FRONTOGENESIS AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DEVELOPED
A NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EARLIER THIS
MORNING. ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH CERTAINLY REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AS AN EARLIER REPORT OF A HALF INCH OCCURRED NEAR
HALLIDAY ON HIGHWAY 8. THE BAND WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN
BORDER THROUGH 12Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISSUING NOWCASTS TO COVER
THIS FEATURE.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...REACHING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z. THE
LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF
OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE
ACROSS KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE TEMPERATURE...SOME SNOW PRODUCTION WILL
RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER EXPECT THOSE AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AS THE STRONGEST LIFT REMAINS WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT AREA. AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. ALL ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRY FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST. HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES DEPICT WARMING ALOFT AT TIMES THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
FREEZING MARK - BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING - WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. CLOUDS
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ICE CRYSTALS FALLING
FROM MID CLOUDS AT TIMES AND NO MID CLOUDS AT TIMES. THIS SUGGESTS A
MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE. LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE
SUNDAY...THEN IT DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS AS IT REACHES MINNESOTA/IOWA ON
MONDAY...AND TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXED WITH
RAIN OR SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE LARGE
TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(CHRISTMAS EVE) LOOK TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEAR TO BE FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TODAY AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS
IN FOG AT KDIK BEFORE CIGS LIFT TO IFR CIGS BY 15Z. IFR CIGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KISN/KBIS THROUGH 18Z-20Z BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT KMOT WITH KJMS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO MVFR BY 16Z
TODAY. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 181236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEAR
WILLISTON/NEWTOWN...MOVING EASTWARD. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS DEPICT
THE VORT/ARC OF THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING IN A CURVE FROM
NEWTOWN/WILLISTON EAST TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD WAHPETON. AS THIS AREA OF SNOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD...THE
INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED FROM MODERATE/HEAVY IN PLACES TO LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...AND NO
OTHER STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS FEATURE. LOW CLOUDS WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY MINOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS NEEDED ATTENTION THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
CENTERED/CIRCULATING NEAR WILLISTON THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...A VERY NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
PER LOCAL RADAR AND WEBCAMS EXTENDS FROM NEWTOWN...EAST INTO VELVA
AND SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MCCLUSKY. THE GFS40 850-700MB 1.5 PVU ATOP A
850MB FRONTOGENESIS AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DEVELOPED
A NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EARLIER THIS
MORNING. ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH CERTAINLY REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AS AN EARLIER REPORT OF A HALF INCH OCCURRED NEAR
HALLIDAY ON HIGHWAY 8. THE BAND WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN
BORDER THROUGH 12Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISSUING NOWCASTS TO COVER
THIS FEATURE.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...REACHING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z. THE
LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF
OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE
ACROSS KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE TEMPERATURE...SOME SNOW PRODUCTION WILL
RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER EXPECT THOSE AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AS THE STRONGEST LIFT REMAINS WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT AREA. AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. ALL ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRY FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST. HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES DEPICT WARMING ALOFT AT TIMES THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
FREEZING MARK - BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING - WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. CLOUDS
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ICE CRYSTALS FALLING
FROM MID CLOUDS AT TIMES AND NO MID CLOUDS AT TIMES. THIS SUGGESTS A
MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE. LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE
SUNDAY...THEN IT DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS AS IT REACHES MINNESOTA/IOWA ON
MONDAY...AND TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXED WITH
RAIN OR SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE LARGE
TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(CHRISTMAS EVE) LOOK TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEAR TO BE FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TODAY AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS
IN FOG AT KDIK BEFORE CIGS LIFT TO IFR CIGS BY 15Z. IFR CIGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KISN/KBIS THROUGH 18Z-20Z BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT KMOT WITH KJMS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO MVFR BY 16Z
TODAY. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 181236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEAR
WILLISTON/NEWTOWN...MOVING EASTWARD. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS DEPICT
THE VORT/ARC OF THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING IN A CURVE FROM
NEWTOWN/WILLISTON EAST TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD WAHPETON. AS THIS AREA OF SNOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD...THE
INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED FROM MODERATE/HEAVY IN PLACES TO LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...AND NO
OTHER STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS FEATURE. LOW CLOUDS WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY MINOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS NEEDED ATTENTION THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
CENTERED/CIRCULATING NEAR WILLISTON THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...A VERY NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
PER LOCAL RADAR AND WEBCAMS EXTENDS FROM NEWTOWN...EAST INTO VELVA
AND SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MCCLUSKY. THE GFS40 850-700MB 1.5 PVU ATOP A
850MB FRONTOGENESIS AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DEVELOPED
A NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EARLIER THIS
MORNING. ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH CERTAINLY REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AS AN EARLIER REPORT OF A HALF INCH OCCURRED NEAR
HALLIDAY ON HIGHWAY 8. THE BAND WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN
BORDER THROUGH 12Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISSUING NOWCASTS TO COVER
THIS FEATURE.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...REACHING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z. THE
LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF
OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE
ACROSS KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE TEMPERATURE...SOME SNOW PRODUCTION WILL
RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER EXPECT THOSE AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AS THE STRONGEST LIFT REMAINS WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT AREA. AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. ALL ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRY FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST. HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES DEPICT WARMING ALOFT AT TIMES THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
FREEZING MARK - BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING - WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. CLOUDS
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ICE CRYSTALS FALLING
FROM MID CLOUDS AT TIMES AND NO MID CLOUDS AT TIMES. THIS SUGGESTS A
MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE. LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE
SUNDAY...THEN IT DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS AS IT REACHES MINNESOTA/IOWA ON
MONDAY...AND TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXED WITH
RAIN OR SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE LARGE
TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(CHRISTMAS EVE) LOOK TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEAR TO BE FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TODAY AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS
IN FOG AT KDIK BEFORE CIGS LIFT TO IFR CIGS BY 15Z. IFR CIGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KISN/KBIS THROUGH 18Z-20Z BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT KMOT WITH KJMS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO MVFR BY 16Z
TODAY. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 181236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEAR
WILLISTON/NEWTOWN...MOVING EASTWARD. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS DEPICT
THE VORT/ARC OF THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING IN A CURVE FROM
NEWTOWN/WILLISTON EAST TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD WAHPETON. AS THIS AREA OF SNOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD...THE
INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED FROM MODERATE/HEAVY IN PLACES TO LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...AND NO
OTHER STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS FEATURE. LOW CLOUDS WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY MINOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS NEEDED ATTENTION THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
CENTERED/CIRCULATING NEAR WILLISTON THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...A VERY NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
PER LOCAL RADAR AND WEBCAMS EXTENDS FROM NEWTOWN...EAST INTO VELVA
AND SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MCCLUSKY. THE GFS40 850-700MB 1.5 PVU ATOP A
850MB FRONTOGENESIS AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DEVELOPED
A NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EARLIER THIS
MORNING. ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH CERTAINLY REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AS AN EARLIER REPORT OF A HALF INCH OCCURRED NEAR
HALLIDAY ON HIGHWAY 8. THE BAND WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN
BORDER THROUGH 12Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISSUING NOWCASTS TO COVER
THIS FEATURE.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...REACHING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z. THE
LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF
OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE
ACROSS KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE TEMPERATURE...SOME SNOW PRODUCTION WILL
RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER EXPECT THOSE AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AS THE STRONGEST LIFT REMAINS WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT AREA. AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. ALL ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRY FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST. HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES DEPICT WARMING ALOFT AT TIMES THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
FREEZING MARK - BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING - WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. CLOUDS
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ICE CRYSTALS FALLING
FROM MID CLOUDS AT TIMES AND NO MID CLOUDS AT TIMES. THIS SUGGESTS A
MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE. LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE
SUNDAY...THEN IT DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS AS IT REACHES MINNESOTA/IOWA ON
MONDAY...AND TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXED WITH
RAIN OR SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE LARGE
TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(CHRISTMAS EVE) LOOK TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEAR TO BE FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE TODAY AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS
IN FOG AT KDIK BEFORE CIGS LIFT TO IFR CIGS BY 15Z. IFR CIGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KISN/KBIS THROUGH 18Z-20Z BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT KMOT WITH KJMS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO MVFR BY 16Z
TODAY. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 181013
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
CENTERED/CIRCULATING NEAR WILLISTON THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...A VERY NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
PER LOCAL RADAR AND WEBCAMS EXTENDS FROM NEWTOWN...EAST INTO VELVA
AND SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MCCLUSKY. THE GFS40 850-700MB 1.5 PVU ATOP A
850MB FRONTOGENESIS AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DEVELOPED
A NARROW MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EARLIER THIS
MORNING. ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH CERTAINLY REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY...AS AN EARLIER REPORT OF A HALF INCH OCCURRED NEAR
HALLIDAY ON HIGHWAY 8. THE BAND WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN
BORDER THROUGH 12Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISSUING NOWCASTS TO COVER
THIS FEATURE.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...REACHING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z. THE
LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF
OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE
ACROSS KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE TEMPERATURE...SOME SNOW PRODUCTION WILL
RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER EXPECT THOSE AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
LIGHT AS THE STRONGEST LIFT REMAINS WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT AREA. AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAKER LIFT. ALL ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGE
CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRY FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST. HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES DEPICT WARMING ALOFT AT TIMES THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
FREEZING MARK - BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING - WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. CLOUDS
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ICE CRYSTALS FALLING
FROM MID CLOUDS AT TIMES AND NO MID CLOUDS AT TIMES. THIS SUGGESTS A
MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR LIGHT SNOW. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE. LOOKING AT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS
SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE
SUNDAY...THEN IT DEEPENS/STRENGTHENS AS IT REACHES MINNESOTA/IOWA ON
MONDAY...AND TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXED WITH
RAIN OR SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE LARGE
TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(CHRISTMAS EVE) LOOK TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS
CHRISTMAS DAY APPEAR TO BE FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KISN AND KBIS.
VFR CIGS AT KMOT WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS BY 12Z AND EVENTUALLY AT
KJMS BY 15Z TODAY. THE LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT ALL
AERODROMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME LIFTING AT
KDIK LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AT
KDIK THROUGH 06 UTC. EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
TERMINALS TODAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS/TWH










000
FXUS63 KBIS 180816
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
216 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

QUICK UPDATE AS A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PER LATEST
RADAR...AND CONFIRMATION FROM LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS 1.5 PVU 850-700MB AXIS ATOP AN AREA
OF 850MB FRONTOGENESIS IS RESULTING IN A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOWFALL. TIGHT CIRCULATION CAN BE SEEN ON THE 0.5 DEGREE RADAR
SLICE. THE BAND OF SNOW BEGINS FROM HIGHWAY 8...JUST WEST OF
HALLIDAY WHERE LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED VISIBILITY OF AROUND
FIFTEEN 15 FEET WITH ABOUT A HALF INCH OF SNOW. WEBCAMS AT
COLEHARBOR AND WHITE SHIELD CONFIRM BRIEF BUT INTENSE SNOW. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDDED FORECAST AND FOLLOWED THIS AXIS THROUGH THE
MORNING AS IT SLIDES NORTH. THE BAND EXTENDS SOUTHEAST INTO
GARRISON...WILTON...REGAN AND WING. A NOWCAST WAS SENT EARLIER
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. UPDATES TO THE TEXT PRODUCTS
FORTHCOMING.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP PLACES AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATING JUST
SOUTH OF WILLISTON WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY...BEING LOCATED
BETWEEN DICKINSON AND BISMARCK BY 12Z...AND BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
JAMESTOWN BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS INDICATE ENOUGH OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED
LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE. AS THE FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE
TEMPERATURE...SNOW PRODUCTION WILL RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED
ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR THIS FEATURE AND WILL
MONITOR AS IT EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THINKING IS ONE TO
TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED FLURRIES STILL A GOOD BET WITH THE ACTUAL
UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN ISSUE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A HASSLE AGAIN ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL ND...BUT TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE SO NO BIG CHANGES HERE.

LATEST 00 UTC NAM AND 02 UTC RAP SHOW A COUPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEAD WAVE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
GROUND REPORTS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE SMALL BAND LIFTING QUICKLY
NORTH...OPTED TO KEEP THIS AS A CONTINUED MENTION OF FLURRIES AS
GETTING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IS NOT LIKELY.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
WEST ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. ALTHOUGH RAP/NAM
QPF IS CURRENTLY NIL...THE RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 07-12
UTC TIMEFRAME. THINKING AS WE GO THROUGH A FEW MORE ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR...THIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INCREASE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...HAVE EXTENDED FLURRIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THINK MID SHIFT WILL HAVE THE
TIME TO RE-EVALUATE AND ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
MORNING HOURS IF NEEDED. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT THIS
SECOND WAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME OF US A LITTLE MORE
THAN JUST FLURRIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. LOW STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KBIS-KMOT) 07-10 UTC
AND INTO KJMS 13-16 UTC. THE LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT
ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME LIFTING
AT KDIK LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AT
KDIK THROUGH 06 UTC.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW...WHICH TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
TO KISN AND KMOT LATE TONIGHT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES...KDIK AROUND 10-16
UTC...KBIS AROUND 14-20 UTC AND KJMS AROUND 18-24 UTC. DID ADD A
TEMPO AT KDIK AND KBIS FOR SOME LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL HOLD OFF ON LOWER CIGS/VSBYS FOR KJMS AT THIS TIME AS
IT`S PRETTY FAR OUT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH









000
FXUS63 KBIS 180816
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
216 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

QUICK UPDATE AS A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PER LATEST
RADAR...AND CONFIRMATION FROM LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS 1.5 PVU 850-700MB AXIS ATOP AN AREA
OF 850MB FRONTOGENESIS IS RESULTING IN A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOWFALL. TIGHT CIRCULATION CAN BE SEEN ON THE 0.5 DEGREE RADAR
SLICE. THE BAND OF SNOW BEGINS FROM HIGHWAY 8...JUST WEST OF
HALLIDAY WHERE LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED VISIBILITY OF AROUND
FIFTEEN 15 FEET WITH ABOUT A HALF INCH OF SNOW. WEBCAMS AT
COLEHARBOR AND WHITE SHIELD CONFIRM BRIEF BUT INTENSE SNOW. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDDED FORECAST AND FOLLOWED THIS AXIS THROUGH THE
MORNING AS IT SLIDES NORTH. THE BAND EXTENDS SOUTHEAST INTO
GARRISON...WILTON...REGAN AND WING. A NOWCAST WAS SENT EARLIER
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. UPDATES TO THE TEXT PRODUCTS
FORTHCOMING.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP PLACES AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATING JUST
SOUTH OF WILLISTON WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY...BEING LOCATED
BETWEEN DICKINSON AND BISMARCK BY 12Z...AND BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
JAMESTOWN BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS INDICATE ENOUGH OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED
LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE. AS THE FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE
TEMPERATURE...SNOW PRODUCTION WILL RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED
ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR THIS FEATURE AND WILL
MONITOR AS IT EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THINKING IS ONE TO
TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED FLURRIES STILL A GOOD BET WITH THE ACTUAL
UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN ISSUE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A HASSLE AGAIN ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL ND...BUT TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE SO NO BIG CHANGES HERE.

LATEST 00 UTC NAM AND 02 UTC RAP SHOW A COUPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEAD WAVE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
GROUND REPORTS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE SMALL BAND LIFTING QUICKLY
NORTH...OPTED TO KEEP THIS AS A CONTINUED MENTION OF FLURRIES AS
GETTING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IS NOT LIKELY.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
WEST ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. ALTHOUGH RAP/NAM
QPF IS CURRENTLY NIL...THE RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 07-12
UTC TIMEFRAME. THINKING AS WE GO THROUGH A FEW MORE ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR...THIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INCREASE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...HAVE EXTENDED FLURRIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THINK MID SHIFT WILL HAVE THE
TIME TO RE-EVALUATE AND ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
MORNING HOURS IF NEEDED. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT THIS
SECOND WAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME OF US A LITTLE MORE
THAN JUST FLURRIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. LOW STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KBIS-KMOT) 07-10 UTC
AND INTO KJMS 13-16 UTC. THE LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT
ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME LIFTING
AT KDIK LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AT
KDIK THROUGH 06 UTC.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW...WHICH TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
TO KISN AND KMOT LATE TONIGHT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES...KDIK AROUND 10-16
UTC...KBIS AROUND 14-20 UTC AND KJMS AROUND 18-24 UTC. DID ADD A
TEMPO AT KDIK AND KBIS FOR SOME LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL HOLD OFF ON LOWER CIGS/VSBYS FOR KJMS AT THIS TIME AS
IT`S PRETTY FAR OUT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH









000
FXUS63 KBIS 180612
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP PLACES AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATING JUST
SOUTH OF WILLISTON WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY...BEING LOCATED
BETWEEN DICKINSON AND BISMARCK BY 12Z...AND BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
JAMESTOWN BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS INDICATE ENOUGH OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED
LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE. AS THE FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE
TEMPERATURE...SNOW PRODUCTION WILL RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED
ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR THIS FEATURE AND WILL
MONITOR AS IT EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THINKING IS ONE TO
TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED FLURRIES STILL A GOOD BET WITH THE ACTUAL
UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN ISSUE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A HASSLE AGAIN ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL ND...BUT TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE SO NO BIG CHANGES HERE.

LATEST 00 UTC NAM AND 02 UTC RAP SHOW A COUPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEAD WAVE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
GROUND REPORTS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE SMALL BAND LIFTING QUICKLY
NORTH...OPTED TO KEEP THIS AS A CONTINUED MENTION OF FLURRIES AS
GETTING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IS NOT LIKELY.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
WEST ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. ALTHOUGH RAP/NAM
QPF IS CURRENTLY NIL...THE RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 07-12
UTC TIMEFRAME. THINKING AS WE GO THROUGH A FEW MORE ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR...THIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INCREASE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...HAVE EXTENDED FLURRIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THINK MID SHIFT WILL HAVE THE
TIME TO RE-EVALUATE AND ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
MORNING HOURS IF NEEDED. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT THIS
SECOND WAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME OF US A LITTLE MORE
THAN JUST FLURRIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. LOW STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KBIS-KMOT) 07-10 UTC
AND INTO KJMS 13-16 UTC. THE LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT
ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME LIFTING
AT KDIK LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AT
KDIK THROUGH 06 UTC.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW...WHICH TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
TO KISN AND KMOT LATE TONIGHT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES...KDIK AROUND 10-16
UTC...KBIS AROUND 14-20 UTC AND KJMS AROUND 18-24 UTC. DID ADD A
TEMPO AT KDIK AND KBIS FOR SOME LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL HOLD OFF ON LOWER CIGS/VSBYS FOR KJMS AT THIS TIME AS
IT`S PRETTY FAR OUT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 180612
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP PLACES AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATING JUST
SOUTH OF WILLISTON WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY...BEING LOCATED
BETWEEN DICKINSON AND BISMARCK BY 12Z...AND BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
JAMESTOWN BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE LATEST RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS INDICATE ENOUGH OMEGA/LIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED
LAYER WITH RESPECT TO ICE. AS THE FROST POINT EXCEEDS THE
TEMPERATURE...SNOW PRODUCTION WILL RESULT IN THE SUPERSATURATED
ENVIRONMENT FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR THIS FEATURE AND WILL
MONITOR AS IT EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THINKING IS ONE TO
TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED FLURRIES STILL A GOOD BET WITH THE ACTUAL
UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN ISSUE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A HASSLE AGAIN ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL ND...BUT TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE SO NO BIG CHANGES HERE.

LATEST 00 UTC NAM AND 02 UTC RAP SHOW A COUPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEAD WAVE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
GROUND REPORTS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE SMALL BAND LIFTING QUICKLY
NORTH...OPTED TO KEEP THIS AS A CONTINUED MENTION OF FLURRIES AS
GETTING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IS NOT LIKELY.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
WEST ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. ALTHOUGH RAP/NAM
QPF IS CURRENTLY NIL...THE RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 07-12
UTC TIMEFRAME. THINKING AS WE GO THROUGH A FEW MORE ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR...THIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INCREASE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...HAVE EXTENDED FLURRIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THINK MID SHIFT WILL HAVE THE
TIME TO RE-EVALUATE AND ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
MORNING HOURS IF NEEDED. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT THIS
SECOND WAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME OF US A LITTLE MORE
THAN JUST FLURRIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. LOW STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KBIS-KMOT) 07-10 UTC
AND INTO KJMS 13-16 UTC. THE LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT
ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME LIFTING
AT KDIK LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AT
KDIK THROUGH 06 UTC.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW...WHICH TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
TO KISN AND KMOT LATE TONIGHT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES...KDIK AROUND 10-16
UTC...KBIS AROUND 14-20 UTC AND KJMS AROUND 18-24 UTC. DID ADD A
TEMPO AT KDIK AND KBIS FOR SOME LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS IN SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL HOLD OFF ON LOWER CIGS/VSBYS FOR KJMS AT THIS TIME AS
IT`S PRETTY FAR OUT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 180349
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN ISSUE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A HASSLE AGAIN ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL ND...BUT TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE SO NO BIG CHANGES HERE.

LATEST 00 UTC NAM AND 02 UTC RAP SHOW A COUPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEAD WAVE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
GROUND REPORTS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE SMALL BAND LIFTING QUICKLY
NORTH...OPTED TO KEEP THIS AS A CONTINUED MENTION OF FLURRIES AS
GETTING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IS NOT LIKELY.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
WEST ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. ALTHOUGH RAP/NAM
QPF IS CURRENTLY NIL...THE RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 07-12
UTC TIMEFRAME. THINKING AS WE GO THROUGH A FEW MORE ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR...THIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INCREASE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...HAVE EXTENDED FLURRIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THINK MID SHIFT WILL HAVE THE
TIME TO RE-EVALUATE AND ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
MORNING HOURS IF NEEDED. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT THIS
SECOND WAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME OF US A LITTLE MORE
THAN JUST FLURRIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KBIS AND KMOT ARE ON
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS...CURRENTLY CLEAR...BUT WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE MVFR STRATUS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE 00 UTC FORECAST PERIOD. KJMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT...AND
THEN REMAINING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. LOOKING A LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS WILL
PROBABLY ADD AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES OF KDIK...KBIS...KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. FOR NOW WILL LIKELY KEEP VSBYS ABOVE 5SM UNTIL WE SEE MORE
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 180349
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN ISSUE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A HASSLE AGAIN ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL ND...BUT TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE SO NO BIG CHANGES HERE.

LATEST 00 UTC NAM AND 02 UTC RAP SHOW A COUPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEAD WAVE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
GROUND REPORTS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE SMALL BAND LIFTING QUICKLY
NORTH...OPTED TO KEEP THIS AS A CONTINUED MENTION OF FLURRIES AS
GETTING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IS NOT LIKELY.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
WEST ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. ALTHOUGH RAP/NAM
QPF IS CURRENTLY NIL...THE RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 07-12
UTC TIMEFRAME. THINKING AS WE GO THROUGH A FEW MORE ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR...THIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INCREASE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...HAVE EXTENDED FLURRIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THINK MID SHIFT WILL HAVE THE
TIME TO RE-EVALUATE AND ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
MORNING HOURS IF NEEDED. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT THIS
SECOND WAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME OF US A LITTLE MORE
THAN JUST FLURRIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KBIS AND KMOT ARE ON
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS...CURRENTLY CLEAR...BUT WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE MVFR STRATUS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE 00 UTC FORECAST PERIOD. KJMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT...AND
THEN REMAINING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. LOOKING A LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS WILL
PROBABLY ADD AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES OF KDIK...KBIS...KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. FOR NOW WILL LIKELY KEEP VSBYS ABOVE 5SM UNTIL WE SEE MORE
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 180349
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN ISSUE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A HASSLE AGAIN ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL ND...BUT TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE SO NO BIG CHANGES HERE.

LATEST 00 UTC NAM AND 02 UTC RAP SHOW A COUPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEAD WAVE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
GROUND REPORTS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE SMALL BAND LIFTING QUICKLY
NORTH...OPTED TO KEEP THIS AS A CONTINUED MENTION OF FLURRIES AS
GETTING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IS NOT LIKELY.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
WEST ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. ALTHOUGH RAP/NAM
QPF IS CURRENTLY NIL...THE RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 07-12
UTC TIMEFRAME. THINKING AS WE GO THROUGH A FEW MORE ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR...THIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INCREASE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...HAVE EXTENDED FLURRIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THINK MID SHIFT WILL HAVE THE
TIME TO RE-EVALUATE AND ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
MORNING HOURS IF NEEDED. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT THIS
SECOND WAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME OF US A LITTLE MORE
THAN JUST FLURRIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KBIS AND KMOT ARE ON
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS...CURRENTLY CLEAR...BUT WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE MVFR STRATUS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE 00 UTC FORECAST PERIOD. KJMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT...AND
THEN REMAINING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. LOOKING A LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS WILL
PROBABLY ADD AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES OF KDIK...KBIS...KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. FOR NOW WILL LIKELY KEEP VSBYS ABOVE 5SM UNTIL WE SEE MORE
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 180349
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN ISSUE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A HASSLE AGAIN ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL ND...BUT TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE SO NO BIG CHANGES HERE.

LATEST 00 UTC NAM AND 02 UTC RAP SHOW A COUPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEAD WAVE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
GROUND REPORTS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE SMALL BAND LIFTING QUICKLY
NORTH...OPTED TO KEEP THIS AS A CONTINUED MENTION OF FLURRIES AS
GETTING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IS NOT LIKELY.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
WEST ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. ALTHOUGH RAP/NAM
QPF IS CURRENTLY NIL...THE RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 07-12
UTC TIMEFRAME. THINKING AS WE GO THROUGH A FEW MORE ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR...THIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INCREASE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...HAVE EXTENDED FLURRIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THINK MID SHIFT WILL HAVE THE
TIME TO RE-EVALUATE AND ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
MORNING HOURS IF NEEDED. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT THIS
SECOND WAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME OF US A LITTLE MORE
THAN JUST FLURRIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KBIS AND KMOT ARE ON
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS...CURRENTLY CLEAR...BUT WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE MVFR STRATUS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE 00 UTC FORECAST PERIOD. KJMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT...AND
THEN REMAINING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. LOOKING A LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS WILL
PROBABLY ADD AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES OF KDIK...KBIS...KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. FOR NOW WILL LIKELY KEEP VSBYS ABOVE 5SM UNTIL WE SEE MORE
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 172351
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KBIS AND KMOT ARE ON
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS...CURRENTLY CLEAR...BUT WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE MVFR STRATUS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE 00 UTC FORECAST PERIOD. KJMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT...AND
THEN REMAINING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 172351
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KBIS AND KMOT ARE ON
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS...CURRENTLY CLEAR...BUT WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE MVFR STRATUS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE 00 UTC FORECAST PERIOD. KJMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT...AND
THEN REMAINING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 172153
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO
SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 172153
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO
SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 172153
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO
SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS










000
FXUS63 KBIS 172153
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO
SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS










000
FXUS63 KBIS 171821
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1221 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

EASTERN EDGE OF BROAD CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA HAS BEEN DOING SOME ERODING...THOUGH SOME AREAS THAT ERODED
HAD QUICK RE-DEVELOPMENT. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AS EXPECT
ANY BREAKS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO FILL BACK IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 838 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
STATE AND HAS BEEN TRYING TO BUILD A LITTLE TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING. FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED THE EASTERN EDGE A BIT
WITH CURRENT TRENDS. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON WHETHER THE CLOUD
COVER WILL RETREAT SOME LATER TODAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
CONSISTENCY SINCE THIS HAS NOT BUDGED MUCH FOR THE PAST DAY.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES MADE. BLENDED IN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE CHALLENGE TODAY IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH FORECASTING THE
MOVEMENT OF A DISTINCT/SHARP DELINEATION OF CLOUDS/NO
CLOUDS...ALIGNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS
MORNING. A SOLID OVERCAST WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES DOMINATE ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
EXTENDING EAST OF THIS LINE. TEMPERATURES DEPENDENT ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE TODAY/TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH THE STRATUS LINE NUDGING A BIT FARTHER
EAST...NOW INTO MINOT AND LINTON AGAIN. THE HRRR/RAP13/NAM/GFS
925MB RH TREND SHOWS NEARLY A STATIONARY SITUATION WITH THE STRATUS
DECK DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO HAS PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO
LOWER THIS MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH 18Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ISENTROPIC LIFT PER NAM
285K PRESSURE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SIGHT CHC MENTION OF LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING LIMITED AMOUNTS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENCIES
OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
REMAIN IN-TACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WEST WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES...AND MOSTLY SUNNY EAST CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER TO MID TEENS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRANSITIONING INTO A
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE LONG TERM.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...FAVORING HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO
SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 171821
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1221 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

EASTERN EDGE OF BROAD CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA HAS BEEN DOING SOME ERODING...THOUGH SOME AREAS THAT ERODED
HAD QUICK RE-DEVELOPMENT. WITH THAT SAID...WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AS EXPECT
ANY BREAKS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO FILL BACK IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 838 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
STATE AND HAS BEEN TRYING TO BUILD A LITTLE TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING. FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED THE EASTERN EDGE A BIT
WITH CURRENT TRENDS. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON WHETHER THE CLOUD
COVER WILL RETREAT SOME LATER TODAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
CONSISTENCY SINCE THIS HAS NOT BUDGED MUCH FOR THE PAST DAY.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES MADE. BLENDED IN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE CHALLENGE TODAY IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH FORECASTING THE
MOVEMENT OF A DISTINCT/SHARP DELINEATION OF CLOUDS/NO
CLOUDS...ALIGNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS
MORNING. A SOLID OVERCAST WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES DOMINATE ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
EXTENDING EAST OF THIS LINE. TEMPERATURES DEPENDENT ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE TODAY/TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH THE STRATUS LINE NUDGING A BIT FARTHER
EAST...NOW INTO MINOT AND LINTON AGAIN. THE HRRR/RAP13/NAM/GFS
925MB RH TREND SHOWS NEARLY A STATIONARY SITUATION WITH THE STRATUS
DECK DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO HAS PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO
LOWER THIS MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH 18Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ISENTROPIC LIFT PER NAM
285K PRESSURE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SIGHT CHC MENTION OF LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING LIMITED AMOUNTS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENCIES
OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
REMAIN IN-TACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WEST WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES...AND MOSTLY SUNNY EAST CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER TO MID TEENS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRANSITIONING INTO A
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE LONG TERM.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...FAVORING HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO
SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 171447
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
847 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
STATE AND HAS BEEN TRYING TO BUILD A LITTLE TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING. FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED THE EASTERN EDGE A BIT
WITH CURRENT TRENDS. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON WHETHER THE CLOUD
COVER WILL RETREAT SOME LATER TODAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
CONSISTENCY SINCE THIS HAS NOT BUDGED MUCH FOR THE PAST DAY.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES MADE. BLENDED IN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE CHALLENGE TODAY IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH FORECASTING THE
MOVEMENT OF A DISTINCT/SHARP DELINEATION OF CLOUDS/NO
CLOUDS...ALIGNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS
MORNING. A SOLID OVERCAST WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES DOMINATE ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
EXTENDING EAST OF THIS LINE. TEMPERATURES DEPENDENT ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE TODAY/TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH THE STRATUS LINE NUDGING A BIT FARTHER
EAST...NOW INTO MINOT AND LINTON AGAIN. THE HRRR/RAP13/NAM/GFS
925MB RH TREND SHOWS NEARLY A STATIONARY SITUATION WITH THE STRATUS
DECK DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO HAS PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO
LOWER THIS MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH 18Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ISENTROPIC LIFT PER NAM
285K PRESSURE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SIGHT CHC MENTION OF LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING LIMITED AMOUNTS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENCIES
OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
REMAIN IN-TACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WEST WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES...AND MOSTLY SUNNY EAST CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER TO MID TEENS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRANSITIONING INTO A
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE LONG TERM.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...FAVORING HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD/SOLID MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KBIS NEXT 24HR. IFR CIGS AND AT
KDIK THROUGH 01Z THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 18Z. A VCFG HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KDIK. KMOT HAS BEEN
WOBBLING ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS LINE...AND IT APPEARS KMOT WILL
JUST BARELY REMAIN WITHIN THE MVFR STRATUS DECK. KJMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH VFR CIGS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MVFR/IFR CIGS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 171447
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
847 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
STATE AND HAS BEEN TRYING TO BUILD A LITTLE TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING. FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED THE EASTERN EDGE A BIT
WITH CURRENT TRENDS. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON WHETHER THE CLOUD
COVER WILL RETREAT SOME LATER TODAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
CONSISTENCY SINCE THIS HAS NOT BUDGED MUCH FOR THE PAST DAY.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES MADE. BLENDED IN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE CHALLENGE TODAY IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH FORECASTING THE
MOVEMENT OF A DISTINCT/SHARP DELINEATION OF CLOUDS/NO
CLOUDS...ALIGNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS
MORNING. A SOLID OVERCAST WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES DOMINATE ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
EXTENDING EAST OF THIS LINE. TEMPERATURES DEPENDENT ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE TODAY/TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH THE STRATUS LINE NUDGING A BIT FARTHER
EAST...NOW INTO MINOT AND LINTON AGAIN. THE HRRR/RAP13/NAM/GFS
925MB RH TREND SHOWS NEARLY A STATIONARY SITUATION WITH THE STRATUS
DECK DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO HAS PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO
LOWER THIS MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH 18Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ISENTROPIC LIFT PER NAM
285K PRESSURE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SIGHT CHC MENTION OF LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING LIMITED AMOUNTS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENCIES
OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
REMAIN IN-TACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WEST WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES...AND MOSTLY SUNNY EAST CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER TO MID TEENS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRANSITIONING INTO A
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE LONG TERM.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...FAVORING HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD/SOLID MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KBIS NEXT 24HR. IFR CIGS AND AT
KDIK THROUGH 01Z THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 18Z. A VCFG HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KDIK. KMOT HAS BEEN
WOBBLING ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS LINE...AND IT APPEARS KMOT WILL
JUST BARELY REMAIN WITHIN THE MVFR STRATUS DECK. KJMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH VFR CIGS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MVFR/IFR CIGS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 171257
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
657 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES MADE. BLENDED IN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE CHALLENGE TODAY IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH FORECASTING THE
MOVEMENT OF A DISTINCT/SHARP DELINEATION OF CLOUDS/NO
CLOUDS...ALIGNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS
MORNING. A SOLID OVERCAST WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES DOMINATE ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
EXTENDING EAST OF THIS LINE. TEMPERATURES DEPENDENT ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE TODAY/TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH THE STRATUS LINE NUDGING A BIT FARTHER
EAST...NOW INTO MINOT AND LINTON AGAIN. THE HRRR/RAP13/NAM/GFS
925MB RH TREND SHOWS NEARLY A STATIONARY SITUATION WITH THE STRATUS
DECK DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO HAS PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO
LOWER THIS MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH 18Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ISENTROPIC LIFT PER NAM
285K PRESSURE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SIGHT CHC MENTION OF LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING LIMITED AMOUNTS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENCIES
OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
REMAIN IN-TACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WEST WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES...AND MOSTLY SUNNY EAST CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER TO MID TEENS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRANSITIONING INTO A
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE LONG TERM.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...FAVORING HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD/SOLID MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KBIS NEXT 24HR. IFR CIGS AND AT
KDIK THROUGH 01Z THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 18Z. A VCFG HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KDIK. KMOT HAS BEEN
WOBBLING ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS LINE...AND IT APPEARS KMOT WILL
JUST BARELY REMAIN WITHIN THE MVFR STRATUS DECK. KJMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH VFR CIGS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 171257
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
657 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES MADE. BLENDED IN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE CHALLENGE TODAY IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH FORECASTING THE
MOVEMENT OF A DISTINCT/SHARP DELINEATION OF CLOUDS/NO
CLOUDS...ALIGNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS
MORNING. A SOLID OVERCAST WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES DOMINATE ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
EXTENDING EAST OF THIS LINE. TEMPERATURES DEPENDENT ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE TODAY/TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH THE STRATUS LINE NUDGING A BIT FARTHER
EAST...NOW INTO MINOT AND LINTON AGAIN. THE HRRR/RAP13/NAM/GFS
925MB RH TREND SHOWS NEARLY A STATIONARY SITUATION WITH THE STRATUS
DECK DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO HAS PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO
LOWER THIS MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH 18Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ISENTROPIC LIFT PER NAM
285K PRESSURE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SIGHT CHC MENTION OF LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING LIMITED AMOUNTS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENCIES
OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
REMAIN IN-TACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WEST WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES...AND MOSTLY SUNNY EAST CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER TO MID TEENS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRANSITIONING INTO A
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE LONG TERM.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...FAVORING HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD/SOLID MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KBIS NEXT 24HR. IFR CIGS AND AT
KDIK THROUGH 01Z THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 18Z. A VCFG HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KDIK. KMOT HAS BEEN
WOBBLING ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS LINE...AND IT APPEARS KMOT WILL
JUST BARELY REMAIN WITHIN THE MVFR STRATUS DECK. KJMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH VFR CIGS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 170902
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE CHALLENGE TODAY IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH FORECASTING THE
MOVEMENT OF A DISTINCT/SHARP DELINEATION OF CLOUDS/NO
CLOUDS...ALIGNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS
MORNING. A SOLID OVERCAST WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES DOMINATE ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
EXTENDING EAST OF THIS LINE. TEMPERATURES DEPENDENT ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE TODAY/TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH THE STRATUS LINE NUDGING A BIT FARTHER
EAST...NOW INTO MINOT AND LINTON AGAIN. THE HRRR/RAP13/NAM/GFS
925MB RH TREND SHOWS NEARLY A STATIONARY SITUATION WITH THE STRATUS
DECK DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO HAS PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO
LOWER THIS MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH 18Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ISENTROPIC LIFT PER NAM
285K PRESSURE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SIGHT CHC MENTION OF LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING LIMITED AMOUNTS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENCIES
OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
REMAIN IN-TACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WEST WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES...AND MOSTLY SUNNY EAST CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER TO MID TEENS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRANSITIONING INTO A
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE LONG TERM.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...FAVORING HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD/SOLID MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KBIS NEXT 24HR. IFR CIGS AND
AT KDIK THROUGH 01Z THURSDAY...AND THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG AT
THE TERMINAL THROUGH 18Z. THIS MAY BE ADDED INTO THE 12Z TAFS.
KMOT HAS BEEN WOBBLING ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS LINE...AND IT
APPEARS NOW KMOT WILL REMAIN JUST WITHIN THE STRATUS DECK FOR MVFR
CIGS. KJMS WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CIGS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 170902
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE CHALLENGE TODAY IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH FORECASTING THE
MOVEMENT OF A DISTINCT/SHARP DELINEATION OF CLOUDS/NO
CLOUDS...ALIGNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS
MORNING. A SOLID OVERCAST WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES DOMINATE ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
EXTENDING EAST OF THIS LINE. TEMPERATURES DEPENDENT ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE TODAY/TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH THE STRATUS LINE NUDGING A BIT FARTHER
EAST...NOW INTO MINOT AND LINTON AGAIN. THE HRRR/RAP13/NAM/GFS
925MB RH TREND SHOWS NEARLY A STATIONARY SITUATION WITH THE STRATUS
DECK DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO HAS PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO
LOWER THIS MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH 18Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ISENTROPIC LIFT PER NAM
285K PRESSURE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SIGHT CHC MENTION OF LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING LIMITED AMOUNTS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENCIES
OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
REMAIN IN-TACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WEST WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES...AND MOSTLY SUNNY EAST CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER TO MID TEENS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRANSITIONING INTO A
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE LONG TERM.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...FAVORING HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD/SOLID MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KBIS NEXT 24HR. IFR CIGS AND
AT KDIK THROUGH 01Z THURSDAY...AND THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG AT
THE TERMINAL THROUGH 18Z. THIS MAY BE ADDED INTO THE 12Z TAFS.
KMOT HAS BEEN WOBBLING ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS LINE...AND IT
APPEARS NOW KMOT WILL REMAIN JUST WITHIN THE STRATUS DECK FOR MVFR
CIGS. KJMS WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CIGS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS










000
FXUS63 KBIS 170902
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE CHALLENGE TODAY IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH FORECASTING THE
MOVEMENT OF A DISTINCT/SHARP DELINEATION OF CLOUDS/NO
CLOUDS...ALIGNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS
MORNING. A SOLID OVERCAST WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES DOMINATE ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
EXTENDING EAST OF THIS LINE. TEMPERATURES DEPENDENT ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE TODAY/TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH THE STRATUS LINE NUDGING A BIT FARTHER
EAST...NOW INTO MINOT AND LINTON AGAIN. THE HRRR/RAP13/NAM/GFS
925MB RH TREND SHOWS NEARLY A STATIONARY SITUATION WITH THE STRATUS
DECK DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO HAS PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO
LOWER THIS MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH 18Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ISENTROPIC LIFT PER NAM
285K PRESSURE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SIGHT CHC MENTION OF LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING LIMITED AMOUNTS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENCIES
OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
REMAIN IN-TACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WEST WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES...AND MOSTLY SUNNY EAST CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER TO MID TEENS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRANSITIONING INTO A
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE LONG TERM.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...FAVORING HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD/SOLID MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KBIS NEXT 24HR. IFR CIGS AND
AT KDIK THROUGH 01Z THURSDAY...AND THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG AT
THE TERMINAL THROUGH 18Z. THIS MAY BE ADDED INTO THE 12Z TAFS.
KMOT HAS BEEN WOBBLING ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS LINE...AND IT
APPEARS NOW KMOT WILL REMAIN JUST WITHIN THE STRATUS DECK FOR MVFR
CIGS. KJMS WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CIGS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS










000
FXUS63 KBIS 170902
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE CHALLENGE TODAY IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH FORECASTING THE
MOVEMENT OF A DISTINCT/SHARP DELINEATION OF CLOUDS/NO
CLOUDS...ALIGNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS
MORNING. A SOLID OVERCAST WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES DOMINATE ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
EXTENDING EAST OF THIS LINE. TEMPERATURES DEPENDENT ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE TODAY/TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS
EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH THE STRATUS LINE NUDGING A BIT FARTHER
EAST...NOW INTO MINOT AND LINTON AGAIN. THE HRRR/RAP13/NAM/GFS
925MB RH TREND SHOWS NEARLY A STATIONARY SITUATION WITH THE STRATUS
DECK DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR ALSO HAS PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO
LOWER THIS MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH 18Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ISENTROPIC LIFT PER NAM
285K PRESSURE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SIGHT CHC MENTION OF LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING LIMITED AMOUNTS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENCIES
OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
REMAIN IN-TACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WEST WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES...AND MOSTLY SUNNY EAST CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM LOWER TO MID TEENS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRANSITIONING INTO A
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE LONG TERM.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...FAVORING HIGHS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ON SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WIDESPREAD/SOLID MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KBIS NEXT 24HR. IFR CIGS AND
AT KDIK THROUGH 01Z THURSDAY...AND THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG AT
THE TERMINAL THROUGH 18Z. THIS MAY BE ADDED INTO THE 12Z TAFS.
KMOT HAS BEEN WOBBLING ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS LINE...AND IT
APPEARS NOW KMOT WILL REMAIN JUST WITHIN THE STRATUS DECK FOR MVFR
CIGS. KJMS WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CIGS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 170558
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1158 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST FOG/STRATUS SHOWS A VERY SHARP/DISTINCT LINE BETWEEN
OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND FLURRIES VERSUS A CLEAR SKY. THE CURRENT
LINE EXTENDS FROM SHERWOOD...TO MINOT...TO NEAR WING...AND LINTON.
ALONG AND WEST OF THIS LINE IT IS A SOLID OVERCAST WITH STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES. EAST OF
THIS LINE IS CLEAR AND VERY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS QUICKLY
APPROACHING ZERO. LOOPING THE SATELLITE SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY
SITUATION WITH CONTINUED SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER/LOW LEVEL FLOW. RH
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWERING CIGS IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...LITTLE IF ANY PROGRESS
WILL BE MADE WITH CLEARING OCCURRING WEST FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION. THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL FURTHER KEEP THE CLOUDS
IN TACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS
WITH CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS WEST AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT
AS OMEGA/LIFT CONTINUES IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO AROUND ZERO. KEPT CLOUD LINE NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM BISMARCK TO MINOT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT OF THE STRATUS NOTED ON MESOSCALE MODELS AS THE STRONG
HIGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SURE WE WILL SEE
SOME UNDULATIONS WITH BISMARCK AND MINOT ON THE FRINGE. CURRENTLY
MINOT IS JUST IN THE CLEAR AND 8 DEGREES WHILE BISMARCK IS UNDER
THE CLOUDS AND 17 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND MINNESOTA TONIGHT. LATEST NAM AND MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE
LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NIGHT AND MAYBE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALSO. EASTERN
DAKOTAS INCLUDING JAMESTOWN WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR. THUS
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
THEY SHOULD REMAIN INSULATED TONIGHT. DROPPED LOWS A LITTLE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSEST TO THE COLD
HIGH. THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LOOKED REASONABLE FOR
NOW WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING THROUGH THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES COMPACT LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH
RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE BIGHORNS. OVER
OUR AREA...BROAD SWATH OF LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW FLURRIES...WHILE CLEAR SKIES REMAIN
TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MAINLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
MAY SKIRT FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO HAVE CONTINUE SOME LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ACTIVE WEATHER MAY RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SETUP AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS COULD BRING A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
PATTERN VERIFIES THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK MAY BECOME RATHER
ACTIVE AND COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WIDESPREAD/SOLID MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KBIS NEXT 24HR. CIGS HAVE ALREADY
LOWERED TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KDIK AND WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
01Z THURSDAY. KJMS WILL CONTINUE WITH A CLEAR SKY. KMOT WILL
WOBBLE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR...BUT SHOULD FAVOR MORE VFR CONDITIONS
THAN MVFR THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO A SOLID MVFR
CONDITION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 170558
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1158 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST FOG/STRATUS SHOWS A VERY SHARP/DISTINCT LINE BETWEEN
OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND FLURRIES VERSUS A CLEAR SKY. THE CURRENT
LINE EXTENDS FROM SHERWOOD...TO MINOT...TO NEAR WING...AND LINTON.
ALONG AND WEST OF THIS LINE IT IS A SOLID OVERCAST WITH STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES. EAST OF
THIS LINE IS CLEAR AND VERY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS QUICKLY
APPROACHING ZERO. LOOPING THE SATELLITE SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY
SITUATION WITH CONTINUED SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER/LOW LEVEL FLOW. RH
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWERING CIGS IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...LITTLE IF ANY PROGRESS
WILL BE MADE WITH CLEARING OCCURRING WEST FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION. THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL FURTHER KEEP THE CLOUDS
IN TACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS
WITH CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS WEST AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT
AS OMEGA/LIFT CONTINUES IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO AROUND ZERO. KEPT CLOUD LINE NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM BISMARCK TO MINOT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT OF THE STRATUS NOTED ON MESOSCALE MODELS AS THE STRONG
HIGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SURE WE WILL SEE
SOME UNDULATIONS WITH BISMARCK AND MINOT ON THE FRINGE. CURRENTLY
MINOT IS JUST IN THE CLEAR AND 8 DEGREES WHILE BISMARCK IS UNDER
THE CLOUDS AND 17 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND MINNESOTA TONIGHT. LATEST NAM AND MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE
LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NIGHT AND MAYBE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALSO. EASTERN
DAKOTAS INCLUDING JAMESTOWN WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR. THUS
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
THEY SHOULD REMAIN INSULATED TONIGHT. DROPPED LOWS A LITTLE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSEST TO THE COLD
HIGH. THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LOOKED REASONABLE FOR
NOW WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING THROUGH THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES COMPACT LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH
RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE BIGHORNS. OVER
OUR AREA...BROAD SWATH OF LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW FLURRIES...WHILE CLEAR SKIES REMAIN
TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MAINLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
MAY SKIRT FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO HAVE CONTINUE SOME LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ACTIVE WEATHER MAY RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SETUP AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS COULD BRING A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
PATTERN VERIFIES THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK MAY BECOME RATHER
ACTIVE AND COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WIDESPREAD/SOLID MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KBIS NEXT 24HR. CIGS HAVE ALREADY
LOWERED TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KDIK AND WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
01Z THURSDAY. KJMS WILL CONTINUE WITH A CLEAR SKY. KMOT WILL
WOBBLE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR...BUT SHOULD FAVOR MORE VFR CONDITIONS
THAN MVFR THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO A SOLID MVFR
CONDITION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 170340
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO AROUND ZERO. KEPT CLOUD LINE NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM BISMARCK TO MINOT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT OF THE STRATUS NOTED ON MESOSCALE MODELS AS THE STRONG
HIGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SURE WE WILL SEE
SOME UNDULATIONS WITH BISMARCK AND MINOT ON THE FRINGE. CURRENTLY
MINOT IS JUST IN THE CLEAR AND 8 DEGREES WHILE BISMARCK IS UNDER
THE CLOUDS AND 17 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND MINNESOTA TONIGHT. LATEST NAM AND MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE
LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NIGHT AND MAYBE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALSO. EASTERN
DAKOTAS INCLUDING JAMESTOWN WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR. THUS
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
THEY SHOULD REMAIN INSULATED TONIGHT. DROPPED LOWS A LITTLE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSEST TO THE COLD
HIGH. THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LOOKED REASONABLE FOR
NOW WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING THROUGH THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES COMPACT LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH
RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE BIGHORNS. OVER
OUR AREA...BROAD SWATH OF LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW FLURRIES...WHILE CLEAR SKIES REMAIN
TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MAINLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
MAY SKIRT FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO HAVE CONTINUE SOME LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ACTIVE WEATHER MAY RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SETUP AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS COULD BRING A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
PATTERN VERIFIES THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK MAY BECOME RATHER
ACTIVE AND COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LOW STRATUS IN A MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA. COULD BE SOME STRAY LOW STRATUS NEAR KJMS...BUT MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KISN AND
KDIK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN MVFR STRATUS AT LEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLY PERIODS OF IFR STRATUS HERE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. KMOT AND KBIS ARE RIGHT ON THE CLOUD LINE SO COULD GO
EITHER WAY AS LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
NOTED IN MESOSCALE MODELS. CURRENTLY KBIS IS UNDER MVFR STRATUS
WITH THE EDGE ABOUT 15 MILES EAST OF THE AIRPORT. KMOT IS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES BUT AROUND 5 MILES OR LESS FROM THE CLOUDS. BOTH COULD
GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN MVFR AND CLEAR VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 170340
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO AROUND ZERO. KEPT CLOUD LINE NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM BISMARCK TO MINOT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT OF THE STRATUS NOTED ON MESOSCALE MODELS AS THE STRONG
HIGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SURE WE WILL SEE
SOME UNDULATIONS WITH BISMARCK AND MINOT ON THE FRINGE. CURRENTLY
MINOT IS JUST IN THE CLEAR AND 8 DEGREES WHILE BISMARCK IS UNDER
THE CLOUDS AND 17 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND MINNESOTA TONIGHT. LATEST NAM AND MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE
LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NIGHT AND MAYBE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALSO. EASTERN
DAKOTAS INCLUDING JAMESTOWN WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR. THUS
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
THEY SHOULD REMAIN INSULATED TONIGHT. DROPPED LOWS A LITTLE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSEST TO THE COLD
HIGH. THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LOOKED REASONABLE FOR
NOW WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING THROUGH THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES COMPACT LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH
RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE BIGHORNS. OVER
OUR AREA...BROAD SWATH OF LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW FLURRIES...WHILE CLEAR SKIES REMAIN
TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MAINLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
MAY SKIRT FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO HAVE CONTINUE SOME LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ACTIVE WEATHER MAY RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SETUP AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS COULD BRING A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
PATTERN VERIFIES THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK MAY BECOME RATHER
ACTIVE AND COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LOW STRATUS IN A MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA. COULD BE SOME STRAY LOW STRATUS NEAR KJMS...BUT MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KISN AND
KDIK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN MVFR STRATUS AT LEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLY PERIODS OF IFR STRATUS HERE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. KMOT AND KBIS ARE RIGHT ON THE CLOUD LINE SO COULD GO
EITHER WAY AS LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
NOTED IN MESOSCALE MODELS. CURRENTLY KBIS IS UNDER MVFR STRATUS
WITH THE EDGE ABOUT 15 MILES EAST OF THE AIRPORT. KMOT IS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES BUT AROUND 5 MILES OR LESS FROM THE CLOUDS. BOTH COULD
GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN MVFR AND CLEAR VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 170340
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO AROUND ZERO. KEPT CLOUD LINE NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM BISMARCK TO MINOT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT OF THE STRATUS NOTED ON MESOSCALE MODELS AS THE STRONG
HIGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SURE WE WILL SEE
SOME UNDULATIONS WITH BISMARCK AND MINOT ON THE FRINGE. CURRENTLY
MINOT IS JUST IN THE CLEAR AND 8 DEGREES WHILE BISMARCK IS UNDER
THE CLOUDS AND 17 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND MINNESOTA TONIGHT. LATEST NAM AND MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE
LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NIGHT AND MAYBE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALSO. EASTERN
DAKOTAS INCLUDING JAMESTOWN WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR. THUS
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
THEY SHOULD REMAIN INSULATED TONIGHT. DROPPED LOWS A LITTLE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSEST TO THE COLD
HIGH. THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LOOKED REASONABLE FOR
NOW WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING THROUGH THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES COMPACT LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH
RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE BIGHORNS. OVER
OUR AREA...BROAD SWATH OF LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW FLURRIES...WHILE CLEAR SKIES REMAIN
TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MAINLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
MAY SKIRT FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO HAVE CONTINUE SOME LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ACTIVE WEATHER MAY RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SETUP AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS COULD BRING A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
PATTERN VERIFIES THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK MAY BECOME RATHER
ACTIVE AND COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LOW STRATUS IN A MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA. COULD BE SOME STRAY LOW STRATUS NEAR KJMS...BUT MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KISN AND
KDIK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN MVFR STRATUS AT LEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLY PERIODS OF IFR STRATUS HERE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. KMOT AND KBIS ARE RIGHT ON THE CLOUD LINE SO COULD GO
EITHER WAY AS LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
NOTED IN MESOSCALE MODELS. CURRENTLY KBIS IS UNDER MVFR STRATUS
WITH THE EDGE ABOUT 15 MILES EAST OF THE AIRPORT. KMOT IS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES BUT AROUND 5 MILES OR LESS FROM THE CLOUDS. BOTH COULD
GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN MVFR AND CLEAR VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 170340
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO AROUND ZERO. KEPT CLOUD LINE NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM BISMARCK TO MINOT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT OF THE STRATUS NOTED ON MESOSCALE MODELS AS THE STRONG
HIGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SURE WE WILL SEE
SOME UNDULATIONS WITH BISMARCK AND MINOT ON THE FRINGE. CURRENTLY
MINOT IS JUST IN THE CLEAR AND 8 DEGREES WHILE BISMARCK IS UNDER
THE CLOUDS AND 17 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND MINNESOTA TONIGHT. LATEST NAM AND MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE
LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NIGHT AND MAYBE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALSO. EASTERN
DAKOTAS INCLUDING JAMESTOWN WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR. THUS
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
THEY SHOULD REMAIN INSULATED TONIGHT. DROPPED LOWS A LITTLE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSEST TO THE COLD
HIGH. THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LOOKED REASONABLE FOR
NOW WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING THROUGH THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES COMPACT LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH
RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE BIGHORNS. OVER
OUR AREA...BROAD SWATH OF LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW FLURRIES...WHILE CLEAR SKIES REMAIN
TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MAINLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
MAY SKIRT FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO HAVE CONTINUE SOME LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ACTIVE WEATHER MAY RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SETUP AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS COULD BRING A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
PATTERN VERIFIES THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK MAY BECOME RATHER
ACTIVE AND COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LOW STRATUS IN A MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA. COULD BE SOME STRAY LOW STRATUS NEAR KJMS...BUT MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KISN AND
KDIK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN MVFR STRATUS AT LEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLY PERIODS OF IFR STRATUS HERE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. KMOT AND KBIS ARE RIGHT ON THE CLOUD LINE SO COULD GO
EITHER WAY AS LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
NOTED IN MESOSCALE MODELS. CURRENTLY KBIS IS UNDER MVFR STRATUS
WITH THE EDGE ABOUT 15 MILES EAST OF THE AIRPORT. KMOT IS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES BUT AROUND 5 MILES OR LESS FROM THE CLOUDS. BOTH COULD
GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN MVFR AND CLEAR VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 162351
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
551 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND MINNESOTA TONIGHT. LATEST NAM AND MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE
LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NIGHT AND MAYBE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALSO. EASTERN
DAKOTAS INCLUDING JAMESTOWN WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR. THUS
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
THEY SHOULD REMAIN INSULATED TONIGHT. DROPPED LOWS A LITTLE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSEST TO THE COLD
HIGH. THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LOOKED REASONABLE FOR
NOW WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING THROUGH THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES COMPACT LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH
RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE BIGHORNS. OVER
OUR AREA...BROAD SWATH OF LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW FLURRIES...WHILE CLEAR SKIES REMAIN
TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MAINLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
MAY SKIRT FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO HAVE CONTINUE SOME LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ACTIVE WEATHER MAY RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SETUP AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS COULD BRING A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
PATTERN VERIFIES THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK MAY BECOME RATHER
ACTIVE AND COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LOW STRATUS IN A MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA. COULD BE SOME STRAY LOW STRATUS NEAR KJMS...BUT MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KISN AND
KDIK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN MVFR STRATUS AT LEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLY PERIODS OF IFR STRATUS HERE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. KMOT AND KBIS ARE RIGHT ON THE CLOUD LINE SO COULD GO
EITHER WAY AS LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
NOTED IN MESOSCALE MODELS. CURRENTLY BOTH ARE IN THE STRATUS AND
STARTED OUT MVFR CEILINGS FOR BOTH.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 162351
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
551 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND MINNESOTA TONIGHT. LATEST NAM AND MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE
LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NIGHT AND MAYBE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALSO. EASTERN
DAKOTAS INCLUDING JAMESTOWN WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR. THUS
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
THEY SHOULD REMAIN INSULATED TONIGHT. DROPPED LOWS A LITTLE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSEST TO THE COLD
HIGH. THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LOOKED REASONABLE FOR
NOW WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING THROUGH THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES COMPACT LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH
RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE BIGHORNS. OVER
OUR AREA...BROAD SWATH OF LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW FLURRIES...WHILE CLEAR SKIES REMAIN
TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MAINLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
MAY SKIRT FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO HAVE CONTINUE SOME LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ACTIVE WEATHER MAY RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SETUP AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS COULD BRING A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
PATTERN VERIFIES THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK MAY BECOME RATHER
ACTIVE AND COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LOW STRATUS IN A MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA. COULD BE SOME STRAY LOW STRATUS NEAR KJMS...BUT MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KISN AND
KDIK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN MVFR STRATUS AT LEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLY PERIODS OF IFR STRATUS HERE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. KMOT AND KBIS ARE RIGHT ON THE CLOUD LINE SO COULD GO
EITHER WAY AS LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
NOTED IN MESOSCALE MODELS. CURRENTLY BOTH ARE IN THE STRATUS AND
STARTED OUT MVFR CEILINGS FOR BOTH.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 162056
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING THROUGH THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES COMPACT LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH
RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE BIGHORNS. OVER
OUR AREA...BROAD SWATH OF LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW FLURRIES...WHILE CLEAR SKIES REMAIN
TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MAINLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
MAY SKIRT FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO HAVE CONTINUE SOME LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ACTIVE WEATHER MAY RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SETUP AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS COULD BRING A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
PATTERN VERIFIES THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK MAY BECOME RATHER
ACTIVE AND COLD.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

CIGS OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 162056
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING THROUGH THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES COMPACT LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH
RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE BIGHORNS. OVER
OUR AREA...BROAD SWATH OF LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW FLURRIES...WHILE CLEAR SKIES REMAIN
TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MAINLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
MAY SKIRT FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO HAVE CONTINUE SOME LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ACTIVE WEATHER MAY RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SETUP AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS COULD BRING A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
PATTERN VERIFIES THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK MAY BECOME RATHER
ACTIVE AND COLD.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

CIGS OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS










000
FXUS63 KBIS 161826
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SKIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEST...THOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING CLOUDS
REMAINING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING OVER
THIS AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SKIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR FROM EAST TO WEST OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES OVER THE CLEAR AREAS HAVE
DROPPED TO NEAR ZERO...WHILE UNDER CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES REMAIN
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS CLOUD
COVER SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. THE 06 UTC NAM
AND 11 UTC RAP/HRRR MAINTAIN THE CLEARING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY...SLOWLY ERODING THE STRATUS THROUGH THE
HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL MID
MORNING.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. A 1032MB SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE WINNIPEG...NOSING INTO THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEING LOCATED IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY...THE FLOW BECOMES
PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALREADY APPROACHING
EASTERN MONTANA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

FOR TODAY...LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
A VERY SHARP LINE BETWEEN A CLEAR AND A CLOUDY SKY. ROLLA WAS
CLEAR WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 1 ABOVE...WHILE MINOT WAS OVERCAST
WITH FLURRIES AND HAD A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES. THE EDGE OF THE
CLEARING LINE WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM BOTTINEAU TO RUGBY...INTO
CARRINGTON AND SOUTH TO JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE. THE RAP13
925-850MB RH FIELD PUSHES THIS DRIER AIR/LOWER RH SOUTHWEST TOWARD
A MINOT/BISMARCK THIS MORNING. THERE ARE STILL POCKETS OF STRATUS
IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH WILL AT TIMES ADVECT INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL AREA TODAY...THUS WILL SEE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS HERE. THE WEST WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY UNTIL MID/LATE
AFTERNOON . FOLLOWED THE HOURLY RAP13 TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS
AS IT HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
FLURRIES CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THEREAFTER WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 20S WEST TO THE TEENS EAST CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM THE BRIEF COOL
DOWN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S FOR THE WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ONSHORE
TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AT THE VERY END OF THE CURRENT
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

CIGS OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 161826
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SKIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEST...THOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING CLOUDS
REMAINING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING OVER
THIS AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SKIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR FROM EAST TO WEST OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES OVER THE CLEAR AREAS HAVE
DROPPED TO NEAR ZERO...WHILE UNDER CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES REMAIN
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS CLOUD
COVER SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. THE 06 UTC NAM
AND 11 UTC RAP/HRRR MAINTAIN THE CLEARING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY...SLOWLY ERODING THE STRATUS THROUGH THE
HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL MID
MORNING.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. A 1032MB SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE WINNIPEG...NOSING INTO THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEING LOCATED IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY...THE FLOW BECOMES
PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALREADY APPROACHING
EASTERN MONTANA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

FOR TODAY...LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
A VERY SHARP LINE BETWEEN A CLEAR AND A CLOUDY SKY. ROLLA WAS
CLEAR WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 1 ABOVE...WHILE MINOT WAS OVERCAST
WITH FLURRIES AND HAD A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES. THE EDGE OF THE
CLEARING LINE WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM BOTTINEAU TO RUGBY...INTO
CARRINGTON AND SOUTH TO JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE. THE RAP13
925-850MB RH FIELD PUSHES THIS DRIER AIR/LOWER RH SOUTHWEST TOWARD
A MINOT/BISMARCK THIS MORNING. THERE ARE STILL POCKETS OF STRATUS
IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH WILL AT TIMES ADVECT INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL AREA TODAY...THUS WILL SEE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS HERE. THE WEST WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY UNTIL MID/LATE
AFTERNOON . FOLLOWED THE HOURLY RAP13 TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS
AS IT HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
FLURRIES CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THEREAFTER WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 20S WEST TO THE TEENS EAST CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM THE BRIEF COOL
DOWN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S FOR THE WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ONSHORE
TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AT THE VERY END OF THE CURRENT
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

CIGS OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 161501
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
901 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SKIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR FROM EAST TO WEST OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES OVER THE CLEAR AREAS HAVE
DROPPED TO NEAR ZERO...WHILE UNDER CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES REMAIN
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS CLOUD
COVER SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. THE 06 UTC NAM
AND 11 UTC RAP/HRRR MAINTAIN THE CLEARING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY...SLOWLY ERODING THE STRATUS THROUGH THE
HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL MID
MORNING.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. A 1032MB SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE WINNIPEG...NOSING INTO THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEING LOCATED IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY...THE FLOW BECOMES
PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALREADY APPROACHING
EASTERN MONTANA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

FOR TODAY...LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
A VERY SHARP LINE BETWEEN A CLEAR AND A CLOUDY SKY. ROLLA WAS
CLEAR WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 1 ABOVE...WHILE MINOT WAS OVERCAST
WITH FLURRIES AND HAD A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES. THE EDGE OF THE
CLEARING LINE WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM BOTTINEAU TO RUGBY...INTO
CARRINGTON AND SOUTH TO JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE. THE RAP13
925-850MB RH FIELD PUSHES THIS DRIER AIR/LOWER RH SOUTHWEST TOWARD
A MINOT/BISMARCK THIS MORNING. THERE ARE STILL POCKETS OF STRATUS
IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH WILL AT TIMES ADVECT INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL AREA TODAY...THUS WILL SEE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS HERE. THE WEST WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY UNTIL MID/LATE
AFTERNOON . FOLLOWED THE HOURLY RAP13 TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS
AS IT HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
FLURRIES CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THEREAFTER WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 20S WEST TO THE TEENS EAST CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM THE BRIEF COOL
DOWN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S FOR THE WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ONSHORE
TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AT THE VERY END OF THE CURRENT
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL FLURRIES BEGINS THE 12Z TAFS AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM MVFR TO TO VFR CIGS
WILL OCCUR AT KMOT BY AROUND 14Z...BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AT KBIS...AND
BETWEEN 18-22Z AT KISN AND KDIK.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 161501
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
901 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SKIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR FROM EAST TO WEST OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES OVER THE CLEAR AREAS HAVE
DROPPED TO NEAR ZERO...WHILE UNDER CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES REMAIN
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS CLOUD
COVER SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. THE 06 UTC NAM
AND 11 UTC RAP/HRRR MAINTAIN THE CLEARING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY...SLOWLY ERODING THE STRATUS THROUGH THE
HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL MID
MORNING.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. A 1032MB SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE WINNIPEG...NOSING INTO THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEING LOCATED IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY...THE FLOW BECOMES
PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALREADY APPROACHING
EASTERN MONTANA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

FOR TODAY...LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
A VERY SHARP LINE BETWEEN A CLEAR AND A CLOUDY SKY. ROLLA WAS
CLEAR WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 1 ABOVE...WHILE MINOT WAS OVERCAST
WITH FLURRIES AND HAD A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES. THE EDGE OF THE
CLEARING LINE WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM BOTTINEAU TO RUGBY...INTO
CARRINGTON AND SOUTH TO JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE. THE RAP13
925-850MB RH FIELD PUSHES THIS DRIER AIR/LOWER RH SOUTHWEST TOWARD
A MINOT/BISMARCK THIS MORNING. THERE ARE STILL POCKETS OF STRATUS
IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH WILL AT TIMES ADVECT INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL AREA TODAY...THUS WILL SEE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS HERE. THE WEST WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY UNTIL MID/LATE
AFTERNOON . FOLLOWED THE HOURLY RAP13 TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS
AS IT HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
FLURRIES CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THEREAFTER WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 20S WEST TO THE TEENS EAST CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM THE BRIEF COOL
DOWN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S FOR THE WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ONSHORE
TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AT THE VERY END OF THE CURRENT
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL FLURRIES BEGINS THE 12Z TAFS AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM MVFR TO TO VFR CIGS
WILL OCCUR AT KMOT BY AROUND 14Z...BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AT KBIS...AND
BETWEEN 18-22Z AT KISN AND KDIK.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 161254
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
654 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. THE 06 UTC NAM
AND 11 UTC RAP/HRRR MAINTAIN THE CLEARING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY...SLOWLY ERODING THE STRATUS THROUGH THE
HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL MID
MORNING.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. A 1032MB SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE WINNIPEG...NOSING INTO THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEING LOCATED IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY...THE FLOW BECOMES
PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALREADY APPROACHING
EASTERN MONTANA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

FOR TODAY...LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
A VERY SHARP LINE BETWEEN A CLEAR AND A CLOUDY SKY. ROLLA WAS
CLEAR WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 1 ABOVE...WHILE MINOT WAS OVERCAST
WITH FLURRIES AND HAD A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES. THE EDGE OF THE
CLEARING LINE WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM BOTTINEAU TO RUGBY...INTO
CARRINGTON AND SOUTH TO JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE. THE RAP13
925-850MB RH FIELD PUSHES THIS DRIER AIR/LOWER RH SOUTHWEST TOWARD
A MINOT/BISMARCK THIS MORNING. THERE ARE STILL POCKETS OF STRATUS
IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH WILL AT TIMES ADVECT INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL AREA TODAY...THUS WILL SEE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS HERE. THE WEST WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY UNTIL MID/LATE
AFTERNOON . FOLLOWED THE HOURLY RAP13 TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS
AS IT HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
FLURRIES CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THEREAFTER WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 20S WEST TO THE TEENS EAST CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM THE BRIEF COOL
DOWN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S FOR THE WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ONSHORE
TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AT THE VERY END OF THE CURRENT
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL FLURRIES BEGINS THE 12Z TAFS AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM MVFR TO TO VFR CIGS
WILL OCCUR AT KMOT BY AROUND 14Z...BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AT KBIS...AND
BETWEEN 18-22Z AT KISN AND KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 161254
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
654 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. THE 06 UTC NAM
AND 11 UTC RAP/HRRR MAINTAIN THE CLEARING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY...SLOWLY ERODING THE STRATUS THROUGH THE
HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL MID
MORNING.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. A 1032MB SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE WINNIPEG...NOSING INTO THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEING LOCATED IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY...THE FLOW BECOMES
PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALREADY APPROACHING
EASTERN MONTANA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

FOR TODAY...LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
A VERY SHARP LINE BETWEEN A CLEAR AND A CLOUDY SKY. ROLLA WAS
CLEAR WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 1 ABOVE...WHILE MINOT WAS OVERCAST
WITH FLURRIES AND HAD A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES. THE EDGE OF THE
CLEARING LINE WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM BOTTINEAU TO RUGBY...INTO
CARRINGTON AND SOUTH TO JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE. THE RAP13
925-850MB RH FIELD PUSHES THIS DRIER AIR/LOWER RH SOUTHWEST TOWARD
A MINOT/BISMARCK THIS MORNING. THERE ARE STILL POCKETS OF STRATUS
IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH WILL AT TIMES ADVECT INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL AREA TODAY...THUS WILL SEE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS HERE. THE WEST WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY UNTIL MID/LATE
AFTERNOON . FOLLOWED THE HOURLY RAP13 TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS
AS IT HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
FLURRIES CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THEREAFTER WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 20S WEST TO THE TEENS EAST CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM THE BRIEF COOL
DOWN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S FOR THE WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ONSHORE
TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AT THE VERY END OF THE CURRENT
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL FLURRIES BEGINS THE 12Z TAFS AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM MVFR TO TO VFR CIGS
WILL OCCUR AT KMOT BY AROUND 14Z...BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AT KBIS...AND
BETWEEN 18-22Z AT KISN AND KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 160932
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL MID
MORNING.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. A 1032MB SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE WINNIPEG...NOSING INTO THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEING LOCATED IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY...THE FLOW BECOMES
PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALREADY APPROACHING
EASTERN MONTANA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

FOR TODAY...LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
A VERY SHARP LINE BETWEEN A CLEAR AND A CLOUDY SKY. ROLLA WAS
CLEAR WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 1 ABOVE...WHILE MINOT WAS OVERCAST
WITH FLURRIES AND HAD A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES. THE EDGE OF THE
CLEARING LINE WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM BOTTINEAU TO RUGBY...INTO
CARRINGTON AND SOUTH TO JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE. THE RAP13
925-850MB RH FIELD PUSHES THIS DRIER AIR/LOWER RH SOUTHWEST TOWARD
A MINOT/BISMARCK THIS MORNING. THERE ARE STILL POCKETS OF STRATUS
IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH WILL AT TIMES ADVECT INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL AREA TODAY...THUS WILL SEE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS HERE. THE WEST WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY UNTIL MID/LATE
AFTERNOON . FOLLOWED THE HOURLY RAP13 TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS
AS IT HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
FLURRIES CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THEREAFTER WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 20S WEST TO THE TEENS EAST CENTRAL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM THE BRIEF COOL
DOWN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S FOR THE WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ONSHORE
TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AT THE VERY END OF THE CURRENT
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS. HOWEVER EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FROM MVFR TO TO VFR CIGS AT KMOT AND KBIS BY 15Z TODAY...AND KISN
AND KDIK TOWARD 18-21Z TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS/TWH









000
FXUS63 KBIS 160932
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL MID
MORNING.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. A 1032MB SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE WINNIPEG...NOSING INTO THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEING LOCATED IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY...THE FLOW BECOMES
PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALREADY APPROACHING
EASTERN MONTANA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

FOR TODAY...LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
A VERY SHARP LINE BETWEEN A CLEAR AND A CLOUDY SKY. ROLLA WAS
CLEAR WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 1 ABOVE...WHILE MINOT WAS OVERCAST
WITH FLURRIES AND HAD A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES. THE EDGE OF THE
CLEARING LINE WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM BOTTINEAU TO RUGBY...INTO
CARRINGTON AND SOUTH TO JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE. THE RAP13
925-850MB RH FIELD PUSHES THIS DRIER AIR/LOWER RH SOUTHWEST TOWARD
A MINOT/BISMARCK THIS MORNING. THERE ARE STILL POCKETS OF STRATUS
IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH WILL AT TIMES ADVECT INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL AREA TODAY...THUS WILL SEE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS HERE. THE WEST WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY UNTIL MID/LATE
AFTERNOON . FOLLOWED THE HOURLY RAP13 TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS
AS IT HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. SCATTERED
FLURRIES CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THEREAFTER WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 20S WEST TO THE TEENS EAST CENTRAL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM THE BRIEF COOL
DOWN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S FOR THE WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...ENERGY COMING ONSHORE
TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AT THE VERY END OF THE CURRENT
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KJMS. HOWEVER EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FROM MVFR TO TO VFR CIGS AT KMOT AND KBIS BY 15Z TODAY...AND KISN
AND KDIK TOWARD 18-21Z TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS/TWH










000
FXUS63 KBIS 160543
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1143 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND PIVOTING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. PERSISTENT AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS STREAMING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...FROM MINOT TO
BISMARCK...PER LOCAL RADARS AND OBSERVATIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN THIS IN THE GRIDS
OVERNIGHT. LOCAL FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS SOME DRYING ALONG WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO JAMESTOWN. HOWEVER...THIS PARTIAL CLEARING WILL
REMAIN INTERMITTENT OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF STRATUS
UPSTREAM MIGRATE INTO THIS AREA. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN AREA OF CLEARING OVER NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA AND COULD WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL MORE THAN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES OVER ROLETTE COUNTY DROPPED
QUICKLY AS SKIES CLEARED SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST CWA INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES HERE. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY AREAS
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY. DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF FLURRIES
THROUGH THE NIGHT MOST AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT MOST AREAS...BEFORE STARTING TO CLEAR ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE
WITH A DIMINISHING NORTH WIND. LATEST RADAR LOOP INDICATES LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF
FLURRIES THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WITH HIGH
OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES CUT OFF LOW SLIDING ALONG THE MISSOURI/IOWA
BORDER WITH TROUGH ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH SOME AREAS OF FLURRIES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH.

FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASING AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH SHIFTS INTO
THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA KEEPING LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

ON TUESDAY...SKIES WILL START OUT CLOUDY...THOUGH WILL START TO
CLEAR OUT SOME LATER IN THE DAY AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
WITH COOLER AIRMASS SETTLED OVER THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S
MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...TEENS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE LONG TERM APPEARS RATHER BENIGN.

SPLIT FLOW WILL KEEP ALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL (MID 20S THIS
TIME OF YEAR) THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO THE 30S AND MAYBE LOW
40S. SIMILAR TO LATE LAST WEEK...WEAK FLOW AND A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER COULD LEAD TO RATHER CLOUDY AND FOGGY DAYS WITH A LACK OF
ANY REAL DRY ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES TO BEGIN THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES TO VFR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. KJMS AND
KMOT LIKELY TO SEE BREAKS SHORTLY AFTER 06 UTC...KBIS CLOSER TO 12
UTC...AND KISN AND KDIK TOWARD 18-21 UTC TUESDAY. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AT KDIK AND KISN BY 18
UTC TUESDAY AND KMOT AND KBIS BEFORE 00 UTC WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 160543
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1143 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND PIVOTING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. PERSISTENT AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS STREAMING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...FROM MINOT TO
BISMARCK...PER LOCAL RADARS AND OBSERVATIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN THIS IN THE GRIDS
OVERNIGHT. LOCAL FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS SOME DRYING ALONG WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO JAMESTOWN. HOWEVER...THIS PARTIAL CLEARING WILL
REMAIN INTERMITTENT OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF STRATUS
UPSTREAM MIGRATE INTO THIS AREA. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN AREA OF CLEARING OVER NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA AND COULD WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL MORE THAN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES OVER ROLETTE COUNTY DROPPED
QUICKLY AS SKIES CLEARED SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST CWA INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES HERE. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY AREAS
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY. DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF FLURRIES
THROUGH THE NIGHT MOST AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT MOST AREAS...BEFORE STARTING TO CLEAR ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE
WITH A DIMINISHING NORTH WIND. LATEST RADAR LOOP INDICATES LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF
FLURRIES THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WITH HIGH
OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES CUT OFF LOW SLIDING ALONG THE MISSOURI/IOWA
BORDER WITH TROUGH ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH SOME AREAS OF FLURRIES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH.

FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASING AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH SHIFTS INTO
THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA KEEPING LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

ON TUESDAY...SKIES WILL START OUT CLOUDY...THOUGH WILL START TO
CLEAR OUT SOME LATER IN THE DAY AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
WITH COOLER AIRMASS SETTLED OVER THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S
MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...TEENS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE LONG TERM APPEARS RATHER BENIGN.

SPLIT FLOW WILL KEEP ALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL (MID 20S THIS
TIME OF YEAR) THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO THE 30S AND MAYBE LOW
40S. SIMILAR TO LATE LAST WEEK...WEAK FLOW AND A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER COULD LEAD TO RATHER CLOUDY AND FOGGY DAYS WITH A LACK OF
ANY REAL DRY ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES TO BEGIN THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES TO VFR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. KJMS AND
KMOT LIKELY TO SEE BREAKS SHORTLY AFTER 06 UTC...KBIS CLOSER TO 12
UTC...AND KISN AND KDIK TOWARD 18-21 UTC TUESDAY. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AT KDIK AND KISN BY 18
UTC TUESDAY AND KMOT AND KBIS BEFORE 00 UTC WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 160356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN AREA OF CLEARING OVER NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA AND COULD WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL MORE THAN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES OVER ROLETTE COUNTY DROPPED
QUICKLY AS SKIES CLEARED SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST CWA INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES HERE. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY AREAS
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY. DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF FLURRIES
THROUGH THE NIGHT MOST AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT MOST AREAS...BEFORE STARTING TO CLEAR ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE
WITH A DIMINISHING NORTH WIND. LATEST RADAR LOOP INDICATES LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF
FLURRIES THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WITH HIGH
OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES CUT OFF LOW SLIDING ALONG THE MISSOURI/IOWA
BORDER WITH TROUGH ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH SOME AREAS OF FLURRIES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH.

FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASING AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH SHIFTS INTO
THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA KEEPING LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

ON TUESDAY...SKIES WILL START OUT CLOUDY...THOUGH WILL START TO
CLEAR OUT SOME LATER IN THE DAY AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
WITH COOLER AIRMASS SETTLED OVER THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S
MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...TEENS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE LONG TERM APPEARS RATHER BENIGN.

SPLIT FLOW WILL KEEP ALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL (MID 20S THIS
TIME OF YEAR) THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO THE 30S AND MAYBE LOW
40S. SIMILAR TO LATE LAST WEEK...WEAK FLOW AND A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER COULD LEAD TO RATHER CLOUDY AND FOGGY DAYS WITH A LACK OF
ANY REAL DRY ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES TO VFR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. KJMS
AND KMOT LIKELY TO SEE BREAKS LATE TONIGHT...WHILE REMAINING TAF
SITES CLEARING OUT TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST AT
KDIK AND KISN BY 18 UTC TUESDAY AND KMOT AND KBIS BEFORE 00 UTC
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 160356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN AREA OF CLEARING OVER NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA AND COULD WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL MORE THAN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES OVER ROLETTE COUNTY DROPPED
QUICKLY AS SKIES CLEARED SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST CWA INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES HERE. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY AREAS
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY. DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF FLURRIES
THROUGH THE NIGHT MOST AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT MOST AREAS...BEFORE STARTING TO CLEAR ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE
WITH A DIMINISHING NORTH WIND. LATEST RADAR LOOP INDICATES LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF
FLURRIES THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WITH HIGH
OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES CUT OFF LOW SLIDING ALONG THE MISSOURI/IOWA
BORDER WITH TROUGH ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH SOME AREAS OF FLURRIES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH.

FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASING AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH SHIFTS INTO
THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA KEEPING LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

ON TUESDAY...SKIES WILL START OUT CLOUDY...THOUGH WILL START TO
CLEAR OUT SOME LATER IN THE DAY AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
WITH COOLER AIRMASS SETTLED OVER THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S
MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...TEENS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE LONG TERM APPEARS RATHER BENIGN.

SPLIT FLOW WILL KEEP ALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL (MID 20S THIS
TIME OF YEAR) THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO THE 30S AND MAYBE LOW
40S. SIMILAR TO LATE LAST WEEK...WEAK FLOW AND A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER COULD LEAD TO RATHER CLOUDY AND FOGGY DAYS WITH A LACK OF
ANY REAL DRY ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES TO VFR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. KJMS
AND KMOT LIKELY TO SEE BREAKS LATE TONIGHT...WHILE REMAINING TAF
SITES CLEARING OUT TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST AT
KDIK AND KISN BY 18 UTC TUESDAY AND KMOT AND KBIS BEFORE 00 UTC
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 160356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN AREA OF CLEARING OVER NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA AND COULD WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL MORE THAN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES OVER ROLETTE COUNTY DROPPED
QUICKLY AS SKIES CLEARED SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST CWA INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES HERE. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY AREAS
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY. DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF FLURRIES
THROUGH THE NIGHT MOST AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT MOST AREAS...BEFORE STARTING TO CLEAR ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE
WITH A DIMINISHING NORTH WIND. LATEST RADAR LOOP INDICATES LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF
FLURRIES THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WITH HIGH
OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES CUT OFF LOW SLIDING ALONG THE MISSOURI/IOWA
BORDER WITH TROUGH ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH SOME AREAS OF FLURRIES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH.

FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASING AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH SHIFTS INTO
THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA KEEPING LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

ON TUESDAY...SKIES WILL START OUT CLOUDY...THOUGH WILL START TO
CLEAR OUT SOME LATER IN THE DAY AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
WITH COOLER AIRMASS SETTLED OVER THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S
MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...TEENS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE LONG TERM APPEARS RATHER BENIGN.

SPLIT FLOW WILL KEEP ALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL (MID 20S THIS
TIME OF YEAR) THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO THE 30S AND MAYBE LOW
40S. SIMILAR TO LATE LAST WEEK...WEAK FLOW AND A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER COULD LEAD TO RATHER CLOUDY AND FOGGY DAYS WITH A LACK OF
ANY REAL DRY ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES TO VFR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. KJMS
AND KMOT LIKELY TO SEE BREAKS LATE TONIGHT...WHILE REMAINING TAF
SITES CLEARING OUT TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST AT
KDIK AND KISN BY 18 UTC TUESDAY AND KMOT AND KBIS BEFORE 00 UTC
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 160356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN AREA OF CLEARING OVER NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA AND COULD WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL MORE THAN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES OVER ROLETTE COUNTY DROPPED
QUICKLY AS SKIES CLEARED SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST CWA INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES HERE. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY AREAS
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY. DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF FLURRIES
THROUGH THE NIGHT MOST AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT MOST AREAS...BEFORE STARTING TO CLEAR ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE
WITH A DIMINISHING NORTH WIND. LATEST RADAR LOOP INDICATES LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF
FLURRIES THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WITH HIGH
OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES CUT OFF LOW SLIDING ALONG THE MISSOURI/IOWA
BORDER WITH TROUGH ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH SOME AREAS OF FLURRIES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH.

FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASING AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH SHIFTS INTO
THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA KEEPING LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

ON TUESDAY...SKIES WILL START OUT CLOUDY...THOUGH WILL START TO
CLEAR OUT SOME LATER IN THE DAY AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
WITH COOLER AIRMASS SETTLED OVER THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S
MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...TEENS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE LONG TERM APPEARS RATHER BENIGN.

SPLIT FLOW WILL KEEP ALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL (MID 20S THIS
TIME OF YEAR) THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO THE 30S AND MAYBE LOW
40S. SIMILAR TO LATE LAST WEEK...WEAK FLOW AND A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER COULD LEAD TO RATHER CLOUDY AND FOGGY DAYS WITH A LACK OF
ANY REAL DRY ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES TO VFR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. KJMS
AND KMOT LIKELY TO SEE BREAKS LATE TONIGHT...WHILE REMAINING TAF
SITES CLEARING OUT TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST AT
KDIK AND KISN BY 18 UTC TUESDAY AND KMOT AND KBIS BEFORE 00 UTC
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 152352
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
552 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT MOST AREAS...BEFORE STARTING TO CLEAR ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE
WITH A DIMINISHING NORTH WIND. LATEST RADAR LOOP INDICATES LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF
FLURRIES THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WITH HIGH
OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES CUT OFF LOW SLIDING ALONG THE MISSOURI/IOWA
BORDER WITH TROUGH ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH SOME AREAS OF FLURRIES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH.

FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASING AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH SHIFTS INTO
THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA KEEPING LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

ON TUESDAY...SKIES WILL START OUT CLOUDY...THOUGH WILL START TO
CLEAR OUT SOME LATER IN THE DAY AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
WITH COOLER AIRMASS SETTLED OVER THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S
MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...TEENS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE LONG TERM APPEARS RATHER BENIGN.

SPLIT FLOW WILL KEEP ALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL (MID 20S THIS
TIME OF YEAR) THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO THE 30S AND MAYBE LOW
40S. SIMILAR TO LATE LAST WEEK...WEAK FLOW AND A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER COULD LEAD TO RATHER CLOUDY AND FOGGY DAYS WITH A LACK OF
ANY REAL DRY ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY. MODERATE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST AT KDIK AND KISN BY 18 UTC TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 152352
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
552 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT MOST AREAS...BEFORE STARTING TO CLEAR ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE
WITH A DIMINISHING NORTH WIND. LATEST RADAR LOOP INDICATES LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF
FLURRIES THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WITH HIGH
OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES CUT OFF LOW SLIDING ALONG THE MISSOURI/IOWA
BORDER WITH TROUGH ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH SOME AREAS OF FLURRIES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH.

FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASING AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH SHIFTS INTO
THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA KEEPING LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

ON TUESDAY...SKIES WILL START OUT CLOUDY...THOUGH WILL START TO
CLEAR OUT SOME LATER IN THE DAY AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
WITH COOLER AIRMASS SETTLED OVER THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S
MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...TEENS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE LONG TERM APPEARS RATHER BENIGN.

SPLIT FLOW WILL KEEP ALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL (MID 20S THIS
TIME OF YEAR) THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO THE 30S AND MAYBE LOW
40S. SIMILAR TO LATE LAST WEEK...WEAK FLOW AND A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER COULD LEAD TO RATHER CLOUDY AND FOGGY DAYS WITH A LACK OF
ANY REAL DRY ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY. MODERATE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST AT KDIK AND KISN BY 18 UTC TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH








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