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000
FXUS63 KBIS 070520
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1220 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE ONLY ISSUE IS ANY SMOKE
FROM CANADIAN FIRES. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATING SOME 4-5 MILE
REPORTS AT DICKINSON...GLEN ULLIN...AND HETTINGER FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VISIBILITIES LOWER AT OTHER
SITES IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 917 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE LEADING TO A QUIET NIGHT. ONLY ISSUE
WILL BE THE LINGERING AREAS OF SMOKE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE AND MAY
THICKEN SOME OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...BROKEN VFR CEILING AROUND 4-7KFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BEHIND AN EXITING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. STILL A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING 4-8SM VISIBILITIES IN
SMOKE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SHOULD BE A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. THINK SMOKE MAY DISPERSE A LITTLE THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT ONCE WE DECOUPLE WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE.
THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE A
MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY. LATER SHIFTS CAN REVISIT THIS
ISSUE IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL INDUCE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA. WEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER WARM ADVECTION AND FORCING
ARRIVE IN THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR  TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MAINLY DRY IN BETWEEN THOSE TIME PERIODS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...AND IN DOING SO WILL EXTEND INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONE JET STREAK IS
FORECAST TO LIE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A SECONDARY JET STREAK
SCOOTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN BOTH CASES THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION OVER
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...IN COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
JET STREAK...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
FORCING FROM THE JET ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WANES WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EAST. HENCE POPS
DECREASE AND WILL END OVERNIGHT. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
AND FORECAST...CAPE VALUES REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 35KT...SO AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITION TO WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGING MIGRATING
THROUGH. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS VERTICAL MOTION AND INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6M SHEAR AT 20KT OR LESS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/700-500MB...SLOWLY PUSHES
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...AND THEN SCOOTS
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH
INDICATIONS ARE THE NORTH WOULD BE THE FAVORED AREA IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND GREATEST VERTICAL MOTION.
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOUTH AT THIS TIME. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

KDIK WAS REPORTING 3-5SM IN SMOKE THE PAST FEW HOURS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE VISIBILITIES AT OTHER TAF SITES TO LOWER WITH TIME
BENEATH THE NIGHTTIME INVERSION. THEREFORE WILL MENTION 3-4SM IN
SMOKE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PUT IN SCATTERED DECK AS WHEN SMOKE
BECOMES THICKER THE ASOS REPORTS THE SMOKE AS A CLOUD LAYER. BUT NO
CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR AROUND MID-MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST...SPREADING
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MENTIONED VCTS AT
KDIK AS CHANCES WILL BEGIN THERE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TOO FAR IN
TIME TO MENTION AT OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 070520
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1220 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE ONLY ISSUE IS ANY SMOKE
FROM CANADIAN FIRES. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATING SOME 4-5 MILE
REPORTS AT DICKINSON...GLEN ULLIN...AND HETTINGER FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VISIBILITIES LOWER AT OTHER
SITES IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 917 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE LEADING TO A QUIET NIGHT. ONLY ISSUE
WILL BE THE LINGERING AREAS OF SMOKE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE AND MAY
THICKEN SOME OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...BROKEN VFR CEILING AROUND 4-7KFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BEHIND AN EXITING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. STILL A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING 4-8SM VISIBILITIES IN
SMOKE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SHOULD BE A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. THINK SMOKE MAY DISPERSE A LITTLE THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT ONCE WE DECOUPLE WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE.
THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE A
MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY. LATER SHIFTS CAN REVISIT THIS
ISSUE IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL INDUCE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA. WEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER WARM ADVECTION AND FORCING
ARRIVE IN THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR  TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MAINLY DRY IN BETWEEN THOSE TIME PERIODS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...AND IN DOING SO WILL EXTEND INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONE JET STREAK IS
FORECAST TO LIE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A SECONDARY JET STREAK
SCOOTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN BOTH CASES THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION OVER
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...IN COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
JET STREAK...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
FORCING FROM THE JET ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WANES WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EAST. HENCE POPS
DECREASE AND WILL END OVERNIGHT. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
AND FORECAST...CAPE VALUES REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 35KT...SO AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITION TO WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGING MIGRATING
THROUGH. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS VERTICAL MOTION AND INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6M SHEAR AT 20KT OR LESS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/700-500MB...SLOWLY PUSHES
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...AND THEN SCOOTS
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH
INDICATIONS ARE THE NORTH WOULD BE THE FAVORED AREA IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND GREATEST VERTICAL MOTION.
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOUTH AT THIS TIME. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

KDIK WAS REPORTING 3-5SM IN SMOKE THE PAST FEW HOURS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE VISIBILITIES AT OTHER TAF SITES TO LOWER WITH TIME
BENEATH THE NIGHTTIME INVERSION. THEREFORE WILL MENTION 3-4SM IN
SMOKE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PUT IN SCATTERED DECK AS WHEN SMOKE
BECOMES THICKER THE ASOS REPORTS THE SMOKE AS A CLOUD LAYER. BUT NO
CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR AROUND MID-MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST...SPREADING
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MENTIONED VCTS AT
KDIK AS CHANCES WILL BEGIN THERE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TOO FAR IN
TIME TO MENTION AT OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 070222
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
922 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE LEADING TO A QUIET NIGHT. ONLY ISSUE
WILL BE THE LINGERING AREAS OF SMOKE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE AND MAY
THICKEN SOME OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...BROKEN VFR CEILING AROUND 4-7KFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BEHIND AN EXITING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. STILL A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING 4-8SM VISIBILITIES IN
SMOKE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SHOULD BE A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. THINK SMOKE MAY DISPERSE A LITTLE THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT ONCE WE DECOUPLE WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE.
THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE A
MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY. LATER SHIFTS CAN REVISIT THIS
ISSUE IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL INDUCE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA. WEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER WARM ADVECTION AND FORCING
ARRIVE IN THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR  TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MAINLY DRY IN BETWEEN THOSE TIME PERIODS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...AND IN DOING SO WILL EXTEND INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONE JET STREAK IS
FORECAST TO LIE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A SECONDARY JET STREAK
SCOOTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN BOTH CASES THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION OVER
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...IN COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
JET STREAK...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
FORCING FROM THE JET ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WANES WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EAST. HENCE POPS
DECREASE AND WILL END OVERNIGHT. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
AND FORECAST...CAPE VALUES REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 35KT...SO AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITION TO WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGING MIGRATING
THROUGH. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS VERTICAL MOTION AND INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6M SHEAR AT 20KT OR LESS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/700-500MB...SLOWLY PUSHES
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...AND THEN SCOOTS
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH
INDICATIONS ARE THE NORTH WOULD BE THE FAVORED AREA IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND GREATEST VERTICAL MOTION.
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOUTH AT THIS TIME. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AREAS OF MVFR VIS IN SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND MID-MORNING
AS WINDS INCREASE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 070222
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
922 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE LEADING TO A QUIET NIGHT. ONLY ISSUE
WILL BE THE LINGERING AREAS OF SMOKE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE AND MAY
THICKEN SOME OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...BROKEN VFR CEILING AROUND 4-7KFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BEHIND AN EXITING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. STILL A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING 4-8SM VISIBILITIES IN
SMOKE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SHOULD BE A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. THINK SMOKE MAY DISPERSE A LITTLE THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT ONCE WE DECOUPLE WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE.
THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE A
MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY. LATER SHIFTS CAN REVISIT THIS
ISSUE IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL INDUCE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA. WEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER WARM ADVECTION AND FORCING
ARRIVE IN THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR  TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MAINLY DRY IN BETWEEN THOSE TIME PERIODS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...AND IN DOING SO WILL EXTEND INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONE JET STREAK IS
FORECAST TO LIE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A SECONDARY JET STREAK
SCOOTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN BOTH CASES THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION OVER
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...IN COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
JET STREAK...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
FORCING FROM THE JET ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WANES WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EAST. HENCE POPS
DECREASE AND WILL END OVERNIGHT. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
AND FORECAST...CAPE VALUES REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 35KT...SO AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITION TO WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGING MIGRATING
THROUGH. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS VERTICAL MOTION AND INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6M SHEAR AT 20KT OR LESS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/700-500MB...SLOWLY PUSHES
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...AND THEN SCOOTS
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH
INDICATIONS ARE THE NORTH WOULD BE THE FAVORED AREA IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND GREATEST VERTICAL MOTION.
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOUTH AT THIS TIME. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AREAS OF MVFR VIS IN SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND MID-MORNING
AS WINDS INCREASE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 062332
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
632 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE AND MAY
THICKEN SOME OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...BROKEN VFR CEILING AROUND 4-7KFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BEHIND AN EXITING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. STILL A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING 4-8SM VISIBILITIES IN
SMOKE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SHOULD BE A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. THINK SMOKE MAY DISPERSE A LITTLE THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT ONCE WE DECOUPLE WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE.
THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE A
MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY. LATER SHIFTS CAN REVISIT THIS
ISSUE IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL INDUCE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA. WEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER WARM ADVECTION AND FORCING
ARRIVE IN THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR  TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MAINLY DRY IN BETWEEN THOSE TIME PERIODS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...AND IN DOING SO WILL EXTEND INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONE JET STREAK IS
FORECAST TO LIE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A SECONDARY JET STREAK
SCOOTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN BOTH CASES THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION OVER
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...IN COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
JET STREAK...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
FORCING FROM THE JET ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WANES WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EAST. HENCE POPS
DECREASE AND WILL END OVERNIGHT. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
AND FORECAST...CAPE VALUES REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 35KT...SO AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITION TO WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGING MIGRATING
THROUGH. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS VERTICAL MOTION AND INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6M SHEAR AT 20KT OR LESS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/700-500MB...SLOWLY PUSHES
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...AND THEN SCOOTS
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH
INDICATIONS ARE THE NORTH WOULD BE THE FAVORED AREA IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND GREATEST VERTICAL MOTION.
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOUTH AT THIS TIME. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AREAS OF MVFR VIS IN SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND MID-MORNING
AS WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 062332
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
632 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE AND MAY
THICKEN SOME OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...BROKEN VFR CEILING AROUND 4-7KFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BEHIND AN EXITING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. STILL A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING 4-8SM VISIBILITIES IN
SMOKE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SHOULD BE A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. THINK SMOKE MAY DISPERSE A LITTLE THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT ONCE WE DECOUPLE WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE.
THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE A
MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY. LATER SHIFTS CAN REVISIT THIS
ISSUE IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL INDUCE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA. WEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER WARM ADVECTION AND FORCING
ARRIVE IN THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR  TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MAINLY DRY IN BETWEEN THOSE TIME PERIODS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...AND IN DOING SO WILL EXTEND INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONE JET STREAK IS
FORECAST TO LIE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A SECONDARY JET STREAK
SCOOTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN BOTH CASES THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION OVER
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...IN COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
JET STREAK...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
FORCING FROM THE JET ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WANES WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EAST. HENCE POPS
DECREASE AND WILL END OVERNIGHT. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
AND FORECAST...CAPE VALUES REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 35KT...SO AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITION TO WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGING MIGRATING
THROUGH. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS VERTICAL MOTION AND INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6M SHEAR AT 20KT OR LESS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/700-500MB...SLOWLY PUSHES
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...AND THEN SCOOTS
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH
INDICATIONS ARE THE NORTH WOULD BE THE FAVORED AREA IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND GREATEST VERTICAL MOTION.
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOUTH AT THIS TIME. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AREAS OF MVFR VIS IN SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND MID-MORNING
AS WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 062043
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
343 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...BROKEN VFR CEILING AROUND 4-7KFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BEHIND AN EXITING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. STILL A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING 4-8SM VISIBILITIES IN
SMOKE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SHOULD BE A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. THINK SMOKE MAY DISPERSE A LITTLE THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT ONCE WE DECOUPLE WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE.
THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE A
MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY. LATER SHIFTS CAN REVISIT THIS
ISSUE IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL INDUCE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA. WEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER WARM ADVECTION AND FORCING
ARRIVE IN THE LONG TERM.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR  TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MAINLY DRY IN BETWEEN THOSE TIME PERIODS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...AND IN DOING SO WILL EXTEND INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONE JET STREAK IS
FORECAST TO LIE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A SECONDARY JET STREAK
SCOOTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN BOTH CASES THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION OVER
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...IN COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
JET STREAK...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
FORCING FROM THE JET ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WANES WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EAST. HENCE POPS
DECREASE AND WILL END OVERNIGHT. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
AND FORECAST...CAPE VALUES REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 35KT...SO AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITION TO WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGING MIGRATING
THROUGH. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS VERTICAL MOTION AND INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6M SHEAR AT 20KT OR LESS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/700-500MB...SLOWLY PUSHES
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...AND THEN SCOOTS
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH
INDICATIONS ARE THE NORTH WOULD BE THE FAVORED AREA IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND GREATEST VERTICAL MOTION.
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOUTH AT THIS TIME. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
STEER UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO
SMOKE BEING TRANSPORTED SOUTH BY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHERN
CANADIAN WILD FIRES. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL SITES DUE TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NIGHT TIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 062043
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
343 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...BROKEN VFR CEILING AROUND 4-7KFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BEHIND AN EXITING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. STILL A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING 4-8SM VISIBILITIES IN
SMOKE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SHOULD BE A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. THINK SMOKE MAY DISPERSE A LITTLE THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT ONCE WE DECOUPLE WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE.
THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE A
MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY. LATER SHIFTS CAN REVISIT THIS
ISSUE IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL INDUCE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA. WEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER WARM ADVECTION AND FORCING
ARRIVE IN THE LONG TERM.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR  TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MAINLY DRY IN BETWEEN THOSE TIME PERIODS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...AND IN DOING SO WILL EXTEND INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONE JET STREAK IS
FORECAST TO LIE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A SECONDARY JET STREAK
SCOOTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN BOTH CASES THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION OVER
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...IN COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
JET STREAK...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
FORCING FROM THE JET ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WANES WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EAST. HENCE POPS
DECREASE AND WILL END OVERNIGHT. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
AND FORECAST...CAPE VALUES REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 35KT...SO AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITION TO WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGING MIGRATING
THROUGH. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS VERTICAL MOTION AND INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6M SHEAR AT 20KT OR LESS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/700-500MB...SLOWLY PUSHES
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...AND THEN SCOOTS
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH
INDICATIONS ARE THE NORTH WOULD BE THE FAVORED AREA IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND GREATEST VERTICAL MOTION.
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOUTH AT THIS TIME. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
STEER UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO
SMOKE BEING TRANSPORTED SOUTH BY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHERN
CANADIAN WILD FIRES. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL SITES DUE TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NIGHT TIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 062043
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
343 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...BROKEN VFR CEILING AROUND 4-7KFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BEHIND AN EXITING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. STILL A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING 4-8SM VISIBILITIES IN
SMOKE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SHOULD BE A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. THINK SMOKE MAY DISPERSE A LITTLE THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT ONCE WE DECOUPLE WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE.
THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE A
MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY. LATER SHIFTS CAN REVISIT THIS
ISSUE IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL INDUCE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA. WEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER WARM ADVECTION AND FORCING
ARRIVE IN THE LONG TERM.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR  TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MAINLY DRY IN BETWEEN THOSE TIME PERIODS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...AND IN DOING SO WILL EXTEND INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONE JET STREAK IS
FORECAST TO LIE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A SECONDARY JET STREAK
SCOOTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN BOTH CASES THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION OVER
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...IN COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
JET STREAK...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
FORCING FROM THE JET ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WANES WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EAST. HENCE POPS
DECREASE AND WILL END OVERNIGHT. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
AND FORECAST...CAPE VALUES REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 35KT...SO AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITION TO WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGING MIGRATING
THROUGH. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS VERTICAL MOTION AND INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6M SHEAR AT 20KT OR LESS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/700-500MB...SLOWLY PUSHES
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...AND THEN SCOOTS
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH
INDICATIONS ARE THE NORTH WOULD BE THE FAVORED AREA IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND GREATEST VERTICAL MOTION.
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOUTH AT THIS TIME. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
STEER UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO
SMOKE BEING TRANSPORTED SOUTH BY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHERN
CANADIAN WILD FIRES. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL SITES DUE TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NIGHT TIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 062043
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
343 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...BROKEN VFR CEILING AROUND 4-7KFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BEHIND AN EXITING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. STILL A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING 4-8SM VISIBILITIES IN
SMOKE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SHOULD BE A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. THINK SMOKE MAY DISPERSE A LITTLE THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT ONCE WE DECOUPLE WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE.
THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE A
MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY. LATER SHIFTS CAN REVISIT THIS
ISSUE IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL INDUCE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA. WEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER WARM ADVECTION AND FORCING
ARRIVE IN THE LONG TERM.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR  TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MAINLY DRY IN BETWEEN THOSE TIME PERIODS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...AND IN DOING SO WILL EXTEND INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONE JET STREAK IS
FORECAST TO LIE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A SECONDARY JET STREAK
SCOOTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN BOTH CASES THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION OVER
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...IN COMBINATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
JET STREAK...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
FORCING FROM THE JET ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WANES WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EAST. HENCE POPS
DECREASE AND WILL END OVERNIGHT. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
AND FORECAST...CAPE VALUES REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF AROUND 35KT...SO AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITION TO WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WITH A TRANSITORY MID LEVEL RIDGING MIGRATING
THROUGH. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS VERTICAL MOTION AND INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6M SHEAR AT 20KT OR LESS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/700-500MB...SLOWLY PUSHES
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...AND THEN SCOOTS
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH
INDICATIONS ARE THE NORTH WOULD BE THE FAVORED AREA IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND GREATEST VERTICAL MOTION.
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOUTH AT THIS TIME. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
STEER UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO
SMOKE BEING TRANSPORTED SOUTH BY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHERN
CANADIAN WILD FIRES. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL SITES DUE TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NIGHT TIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 061802
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
102 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

RADARS INDICATED A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP THE LAST HOUR OR SO.
STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK
IN LINE. DID BUMP HIGHS UP JUST A BIT SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE WE ARE
ALREADY NEARING FORECAST HIGHS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE GOING FORECAST. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AROUND WITH LITTLE OR ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK
AT TEMPERATURES WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MORNING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH NO CHANGES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
FIRES.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MONTANA.
SMOKE WAS REDUCING VISIBILITIES OVER MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA. RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO MONTANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MONTANA WERE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

TODAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS. BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND END THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
DAKOTA...SETTLING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND WILL MENTION
AREAS OF SMOKE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WELL.

LOOKING AT COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND LESS HUMID. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ON TUESDAY REPLACED
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST EXPANDING NORTH
AND EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY EMBEDDED
MID LEVEL IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FURTHER SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
(RER) OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

FORCING UNDERNEATH THE RER OF THE UPPER JET EXPANDS EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA NORTHEAST INTO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN REGION. FORCING ALOFT REMAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE WANING WED NIGHT...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY
SLOWLY MIGRATING SOUTH BEFORE WASHING OUT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LATEST 12Z MODELS STILL PORTRAY
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES 25-35KTS...WITH CAPE UNDER 1K J/KG. THUS NOT
EXPECTED A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...BUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM DEF POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY DAYTIME. AFTERWARDS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ALLOWING EMBEDDED S/WV`S TO APPROACH THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
FOR THE WEST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING
FOR A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ALSO INCREASING.

A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A FEW LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
STEER UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO
SMOKE BEING TRANSPORTED SOUTH BY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHERN
CANADIAN WILD FIRES. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL SITES DUE TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NIGHT TIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 061450
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
950 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE GOING FORECAST. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AROUND WITH LITTLE OR ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK
AT TEMPERATURES WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MORNING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH NO CHANGES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
FIRES.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MONTANA.
SMOKE WAS REDUCING VISIBILITIES OVER MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA. RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO MONTANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MONTANA WERE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

TODAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS. BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND END THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
DAKOTA...SETTLING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND WILL MENTION
AREAS OF SMOKE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WELL.

LOOKING AT COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND LESS HUMID. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ON TUESDAY REPLACED
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST EXPANDING NORTH
AND EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY EMBEDDED
MID LEVEL IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FURTHER SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
(RER) OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

FORCING UNDERNEATH THE RER OF THE UPPER JET EXPANDS EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA NORTHEAST INTO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN REGION. FORCING ALOFT REMAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE WANING WED NIGHT...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY
SLOWLY MIGRATING SOUTH BEFORE WASHING OUT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LATEST 12Z MODELS STILL PORTRAY
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES 25-35KTS...WITH CAPE UNDER 1K J/KG. THUS NOT
EXPECTED A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...BUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM DEF POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY DAYTIME. AFTERWARDS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ALLOWING EMBEDDED S/WV`S TO APPROACH THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
FOR THE WEST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING
FOR A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ALSO INCREASING.

A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A FEW LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE
12Z TAF PERIOD. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REPORT VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT AT 7SM OR 9SM. KMOT AND KJMS
WERE REPORTING MVFR VSBYS DUE TO SMOKE. THINKING MOST AREAS WILL
SEE IMPROVING VSBYS DURING THE DAY...BUT KEPT 4SM-6SM VSBYS DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES TODAY...TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 061450
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
950 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE GOING FORECAST. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AROUND WITH LITTLE OR ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK
AT TEMPERATURES WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MORNING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH NO CHANGES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
FIRES.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MONTANA.
SMOKE WAS REDUCING VISIBILITIES OVER MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA. RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO MONTANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MONTANA WERE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

TODAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS. BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND END THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
DAKOTA...SETTLING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND WILL MENTION
AREAS OF SMOKE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WELL.

LOOKING AT COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND LESS HUMID. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ON TUESDAY REPLACED
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST EXPANDING NORTH
AND EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY EMBEDDED
MID LEVEL IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FURTHER SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
(RER) OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

FORCING UNDERNEATH THE RER OF THE UPPER JET EXPANDS EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA NORTHEAST INTO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN REGION. FORCING ALOFT REMAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE WANING WED NIGHT...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY
SLOWLY MIGRATING SOUTH BEFORE WASHING OUT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LATEST 12Z MODELS STILL PORTRAY
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES 25-35KTS...WITH CAPE UNDER 1K J/KG. THUS NOT
EXPECTED A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...BUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM DEF POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY DAYTIME. AFTERWARDS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ALLOWING EMBEDDED S/WV`S TO APPROACH THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
FOR THE WEST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING
FOR A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ALSO INCREASING.

A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A FEW LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE
12Z TAF PERIOD. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REPORT VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT AT 7SM OR 9SM. KMOT AND KJMS
WERE REPORTING MVFR VSBYS DUE TO SMOKE. THINKING MOST AREAS WILL
SEE IMPROVING VSBYS DURING THE DAY...BUT KEPT 4SM-6SM VSBYS DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES TODAY...TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 061121
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
621 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MORNING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH NO CHANGES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
FIRES.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MONTANA.
SMOKE WAS REDUCING VISIBILITIES OVER MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA. RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO MONTANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MONTANA WERE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

TODAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS. BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND END THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
DAKOTA...SETTLING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND WILL MENTION
AREAS OF SMOKE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WELL.

LOOKING AT COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND LESS HUMID. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ON TUESDAY REPLACED
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST EXPANDING NORTH
AND EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY EMBEDDED
MID LEVEL IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FURTHER SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
(RER) OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

FORCING UNDERNEATH THE RER OF THE UPPER JET EXPANDS EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA NORTHEAST INTO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN REGION. FORCING ALOFT REMAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE WANING WED NIGHT...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY
SLOWLY MIGRATING SOUTH BEFORE WASHING OUT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LATEST 12Z MODELS STILL PORTRAY
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES 25-35KTS...WITH CAPE UNDER 1K J/KG. THUS NOT
EXPECTED A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...BUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM DEF POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY DAYTIME. AFTERWARDS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ALLOWING EMBEDDED S/WV`S TO APPROACH THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
FOR THE WEST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING
FOR A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ALSO INCREASING.

A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A FEW LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE
12Z TAF PERIOD. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REPORT VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT AT 7SM OR 9SM. KMOT AND KJMS
WERE REPORTING MVFR VSBYS DUE TO SMOKE. THINKING MOST AREAS WILL
SEE IMPROVING VSBYS DURING THE DAY...BUT KEPT 4SM-6SM VSBYS DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES TODAY...TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 061121
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
621 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MORNING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH NO CHANGES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
FIRES.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MONTANA.
SMOKE WAS REDUCING VISIBILITIES OVER MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA. RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO MONTANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MONTANA WERE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

TODAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS. BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND END THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
DAKOTA...SETTLING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND WILL MENTION
AREAS OF SMOKE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WELL.

LOOKING AT COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND LESS HUMID. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ON TUESDAY REPLACED
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST EXPANDING NORTH
AND EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY EMBEDDED
MID LEVEL IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FURTHER SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
(RER) OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

FORCING UNDERNEATH THE RER OF THE UPPER JET EXPANDS EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA NORTHEAST INTO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN REGION. FORCING ALOFT REMAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE WANING WED NIGHT...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY
SLOWLY MIGRATING SOUTH BEFORE WASHING OUT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LATEST 12Z MODELS STILL PORTRAY
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES 25-35KTS...WITH CAPE UNDER 1K J/KG. THUS NOT
EXPECTED A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...BUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM DEF POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY DAYTIME. AFTERWARDS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ALLOWING EMBEDDED S/WV`S TO APPROACH THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
FOR THE WEST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING
FOR A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ALSO INCREASING.

A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A FEW LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE
12Z TAF PERIOD. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REPORT VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT AT 7SM OR 9SM. KMOT AND KJMS
WERE REPORTING MVFR VSBYS DUE TO SMOKE. THINKING MOST AREAS WILL
SEE IMPROVING VSBYS DURING THE DAY...BUT KEPT 4SM-6SM VSBYS DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES TODAY...TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 061121
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
621 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MORNING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH NO CHANGES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
FIRES.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MONTANA.
SMOKE WAS REDUCING VISIBILITIES OVER MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA. RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO MONTANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MONTANA WERE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

TODAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS. BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND END THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
DAKOTA...SETTLING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND WILL MENTION
AREAS OF SMOKE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WELL.

LOOKING AT COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND LESS HUMID. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ON TUESDAY REPLACED
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST EXPANDING NORTH
AND EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY EMBEDDED
MID LEVEL IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FURTHER SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
(RER) OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

FORCING UNDERNEATH THE RER OF THE UPPER JET EXPANDS EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA NORTHEAST INTO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN REGION. FORCING ALOFT REMAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE WANING WED NIGHT...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY
SLOWLY MIGRATING SOUTH BEFORE WASHING OUT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LATEST 12Z MODELS STILL PORTRAY
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES 25-35KTS...WITH CAPE UNDER 1K J/KG. THUS NOT
EXPECTED A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...BUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM DEF POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY DAYTIME. AFTERWARDS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ALLOWING EMBEDDED S/WV`S TO APPROACH THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
FOR THE WEST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING
FOR A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ALSO INCREASING.

A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A FEW LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE
12Z TAF PERIOD. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REPORT VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT AT 7SM OR 9SM. KMOT AND KJMS
WERE REPORTING MVFR VSBYS DUE TO SMOKE. THINKING MOST AREAS WILL
SEE IMPROVING VSBYS DURING THE DAY...BUT KEPT 4SM-6SM VSBYS DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES TODAY...TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 061121
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
621 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MORNING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH NO CHANGES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
FIRES.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MONTANA.
SMOKE WAS REDUCING VISIBILITIES OVER MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA. RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO MONTANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MONTANA WERE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

TODAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS. BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND END THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
DAKOTA...SETTLING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND WILL MENTION
AREAS OF SMOKE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WELL.

LOOKING AT COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND LESS HUMID. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ON TUESDAY REPLACED
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST EXPANDING NORTH
AND EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY EMBEDDED
MID LEVEL IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FURTHER SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
(RER) OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

FORCING UNDERNEATH THE RER OF THE UPPER JET EXPANDS EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA NORTHEAST INTO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN REGION. FORCING ALOFT REMAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE WANING WED NIGHT...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY
SLOWLY MIGRATING SOUTH BEFORE WASHING OUT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LATEST 12Z MODELS STILL PORTRAY
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES 25-35KTS...WITH CAPE UNDER 1K J/KG. THUS NOT
EXPECTED A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...BUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM DEF POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY DAYTIME. AFTERWARDS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ALLOWING EMBEDDED S/WV`S TO APPROACH THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
FOR THE WEST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING
FOR A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ALSO INCREASING.

A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A FEW LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE
12Z TAF PERIOD. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REPORT VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT AT 7SM OR 9SM. KMOT AND KJMS
WERE REPORTING MVFR VSBYS DUE TO SMOKE. THINKING MOST AREAS WILL
SEE IMPROVING VSBYS DURING THE DAY...BUT KEPT 4SM-6SM VSBYS DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES TODAY...TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 060840
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
340 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
FIRES.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN MONTANA.
SMOKE WAS REDUCING VISIBILITIES OVER MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA. RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO MONTANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MONTANA WERE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

TODAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS. BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND END THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
DAKOTA...SETTLING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND WILL MENTION
AREAS OF SMOKE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WELL.

LOOKING AT COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND LESS HUMID. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ON TUESDAY REPLACED
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST EXPANDING NORTH
AND EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY EMBEDDED
MID LEVEL IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FURTHER SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
(RER) OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

FORCING UNDERNEATH THE RER OF THE UPPER JET EXPANDS EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA NORTHEAST INTO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN REGION. FORCING ALOFT REMAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE WANING WED NIGHT...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY
SLOWLY MIGRATING SOUTH BEFORE WASHING OUT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LATEST 12Z MODELS STILL PORTRAY
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES 25-35KTS...WITH CAPE UNDER 1K J/KG. THUS NOT
EXPECTED A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...BUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM DEF POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY DAYTIME. AFTERWARDS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ALLOWING EMBEDDED S/WV`S TO APPROACH THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
FOR THE WEST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING
FOR A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ALSO INCREASING.

A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A FEW LOWER 90S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE
06Z TAF PERIOD. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REPORT VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT AT 6SM OR 7SM. KBIS AND KJMS
WERE REPORTING MVFR VSBYS DUE TO SMOKE. THINK NIGHTTIME INVERSION
SETTING UP WILL HELP VSBYS LOWER OR REMAIN LOW AND WILL INCLUDE
TEMPO GROUPS TO REFLECT CHANGING VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. THINKING MOST AREAS WILL SEE IMPROVING VSBYS DURING
THE DAY...BUT KEPT 4SM-6SM VSBYS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 060555
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

RADAR TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATE THE AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAS
DECREASED IN COVERAGE AS THE AREA MOVES EAST. LATEST HRRR ITERATION
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE PRECIPITATION WITH TIME WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. SO...LOWERED CHANCES WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST IN MONTANA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
STATE LATER TODAY. THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS
IN THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES NECESSARY REGARDING
TEMPERATURES OR WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HI-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT...OPTED TO
DECREASE POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN. DID NOT
GET RID OF THEM COMPLETELY...BUT DID CREATE A MUCH TIGHTER POP
GRADIENT. WE ALSO LIMITED THE ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES EVEN
MORE...WITH AN ISOLATED MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. HELD ONTO THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA FROM MONTANA. THE LATEST ITERATION OF
THE RAP13 SHOWS THE WAVE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES...SO KEPT
POPS RELATIVELY LOW FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 829 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND DECREASE ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO
ISOLATED. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD LAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING.
MUCAPE HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH ANY LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOWN MAINLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE TRENDS IN THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT TONIGHT. SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DIMINISHED...WHILE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RISING NORTH OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE THIS EVENING. A H5 WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS MONTANA WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL THE
FORECAST HAS CAUGHT THE TRENDS WELL...SO MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
REFINE POPS.

SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES HAS AGAIN REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS HARD TO
KNOW FOR SURE HOW LOW VISIBILITIES MAY DROP...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISSUING ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATE A DYING LINE OF
CONVECTION PUSHING OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER IS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THINK
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE REMOVED
SEVERE WORDING FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION
STREAMING IN FROM MONTANA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100KT JET SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NORTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS CONVECTION
IS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WE EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
REMAIN THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL LINE UP WITH THE UPPER JET IN A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST ZONES. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO
CREATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WITH
DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE WEST...THE LAYER OF MOISTURE IS
RATHER THIN...AROUND 5-7K FEET...WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE. THUS
WILL KEEP THE SHOWER WORDING AND NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER. IT
WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SMOKE/HAZE ISSUES CARRIED OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM SHOULD AGAIN
CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD RESUMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...A 1021MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER MORE COMFORTABLE AIR WILL ENSUE WITH
DEWPOINTS/LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 45F AND 50F TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SMOKE/HAZE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS AS IT MOVES INTO MINNESOTA ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND THE HIGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
DURING THE DAY...THEN INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LEESIDE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH ALSO INITIATES OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY. DATA INDICATING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AT 33KTS...WITH CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG PER GFS AND LESS
THAN 100 J/KG IN THE ECMWF. SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ARRIVES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF A JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER DAY FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
SLIDING ATOP OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID
LEVEL RIDGING/H7-H5...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL TREND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND
SUPERBLEND IS FOR A DRY FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST WITH A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
SUPPORTS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE
06Z TAF PERIOD. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REPORT VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT AT 6SM OR 7SM. KBIS AND KJMS
WERE REPORTING MVFR VSBYS DUE TO SMOKE. THINK NIGHTTIME INVERSION
SETTING UP WILL HELP VSBYS LOWER OR REMAIN LOW AND WILL INCLUDE
TEMPO GROUPS TO REFLECT CHANGING VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. THINKING MOST AREAS WILL SEE IMPROVING VSBYS DURING
THE DAY...BUT KEPT 4SM-6SM VSBYS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 060555
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

RADAR TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATE THE AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAS
DECREASED IN COVERAGE AS THE AREA MOVES EAST. LATEST HRRR ITERATION
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE PRECIPITATION WITH TIME WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. SO...LOWERED CHANCES WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST IN MONTANA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
STATE LATER TODAY. THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS
IN THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES NECESSARY REGARDING
TEMPERATURES OR WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HI-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT...OPTED TO
DECREASE POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN. DID NOT
GET RID OF THEM COMPLETELY...BUT DID CREATE A MUCH TIGHTER POP
GRADIENT. WE ALSO LIMITED THE ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES EVEN
MORE...WITH AN ISOLATED MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. HELD ONTO THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA FROM MONTANA. THE LATEST ITERATION OF
THE RAP13 SHOWS THE WAVE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES...SO KEPT
POPS RELATIVELY LOW FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 829 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND DECREASE ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO
ISOLATED. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD LAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING.
MUCAPE HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH ANY LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOWN MAINLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE TRENDS IN THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT TONIGHT. SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DIMINISHED...WHILE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RISING NORTH OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE THIS EVENING. A H5 WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS MONTANA WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL THE
FORECAST HAS CAUGHT THE TRENDS WELL...SO MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
REFINE POPS.

SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES HAS AGAIN REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS HARD TO
KNOW FOR SURE HOW LOW VISIBILITIES MAY DROP...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISSUING ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATE A DYING LINE OF
CONVECTION PUSHING OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER IS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THINK
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE REMOVED
SEVERE WORDING FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION
STREAMING IN FROM MONTANA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100KT JET SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NORTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS CONVECTION
IS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WE EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
REMAIN THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL LINE UP WITH THE UPPER JET IN A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST ZONES. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO
CREATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WITH
DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE WEST...THE LAYER OF MOISTURE IS
RATHER THIN...AROUND 5-7K FEET...WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE. THUS
WILL KEEP THE SHOWER WORDING AND NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER. IT
WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SMOKE/HAZE ISSUES CARRIED OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM SHOULD AGAIN
CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD RESUMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...A 1021MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER MORE COMFORTABLE AIR WILL ENSUE WITH
DEWPOINTS/LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 45F AND 50F TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SMOKE/HAZE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS AS IT MOVES INTO MINNESOTA ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND THE HIGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
DURING THE DAY...THEN INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LEESIDE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH ALSO INITIATES OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY. DATA INDICATING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AT 33KTS...WITH CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG PER GFS AND LESS
THAN 100 J/KG IN THE ECMWF. SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ARRIVES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF A JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER DAY FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
SLIDING ATOP OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID
LEVEL RIDGING/H7-H5...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL TREND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND
SUPERBLEND IS FOR A DRY FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST WITH A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
SUPPORTS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE
06Z TAF PERIOD. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REPORT VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT AT 6SM OR 7SM. KBIS AND KJMS
WERE REPORTING MVFR VSBYS DUE TO SMOKE. THINK NIGHTTIME INVERSION
SETTING UP WILL HELP VSBYS LOWER OR REMAIN LOW AND WILL INCLUDE
TEMPO GROUPS TO REFLECT CHANGING VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. THINKING MOST AREAS WILL SEE IMPROVING VSBYS DURING
THE DAY...BUT KEPT 4SM-6SM VSBYS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 060555
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

RADAR TRENDS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATE THE AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAS
DECREASED IN COVERAGE AS THE AREA MOVES EAST. LATEST HRRR ITERATION
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE PRECIPITATION WITH TIME WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. SO...LOWERED CHANCES WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST IN MONTANA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
STATE LATER TODAY. THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS
IN THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES NECESSARY REGARDING
TEMPERATURES OR WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HI-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT...OPTED TO
DECREASE POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN. DID NOT
GET RID OF THEM COMPLETELY...BUT DID CREATE A MUCH TIGHTER POP
GRADIENT. WE ALSO LIMITED THE ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES EVEN
MORE...WITH AN ISOLATED MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. HELD ONTO THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA FROM MONTANA. THE LATEST ITERATION OF
THE RAP13 SHOWS THE WAVE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES...SO KEPT
POPS RELATIVELY LOW FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 829 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND DECREASE ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO
ISOLATED. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD LAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING.
MUCAPE HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH ANY LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOWN MAINLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE TRENDS IN THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT TONIGHT. SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DIMINISHED...WHILE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RISING NORTH OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE THIS EVENING. A H5 WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS MONTANA WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL THE
FORECAST HAS CAUGHT THE TRENDS WELL...SO MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
REFINE POPS.

SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES HAS AGAIN REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS HARD TO
KNOW FOR SURE HOW LOW VISIBILITIES MAY DROP...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISSUING ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATE A DYING LINE OF
CONVECTION PUSHING OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER IS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THINK
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE REMOVED
SEVERE WORDING FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION
STREAMING IN FROM MONTANA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100KT JET SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NORTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS CONVECTION
IS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WE EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
REMAIN THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL LINE UP WITH THE UPPER JET IN A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST ZONES. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO
CREATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WITH
DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE WEST...THE LAYER OF MOISTURE IS
RATHER THIN...AROUND 5-7K FEET...WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE. THUS
WILL KEEP THE SHOWER WORDING AND NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER. IT
WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SMOKE/HAZE ISSUES CARRIED OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM SHOULD AGAIN
CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD RESUMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...A 1021MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER MORE COMFORTABLE AIR WILL ENSUE WITH
DEWPOINTS/LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 45F AND 50F TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SMOKE/HAZE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS AS IT MOVES INTO MINNESOTA ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND THE HIGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
DURING THE DAY...THEN INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LEESIDE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH ALSO INITIATES OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY. DATA INDICATING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AT 33KTS...WITH CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG PER GFS AND LESS
THAN 100 J/KG IN THE ECMWF. SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ARRIVES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF A JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER DAY FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
SLIDING ATOP OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID
LEVEL RIDGING/H7-H5...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL TREND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND
SUPERBLEND IS FOR A DRY FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST WITH A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
SUPPORTS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE
06Z TAF PERIOD. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REPORT VFR VISIBILITIES...BUT AT 6SM OR 7SM. KBIS AND KJMS
WERE REPORTING MVFR VSBYS DUE TO SMOKE. THINK NIGHTTIME INVERSION
SETTING UP WILL HELP VSBYS LOWER OR REMAIN LOW AND WILL INCLUDE
TEMPO GROUPS TO REFLECT CHANGING VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. THINKING MOST AREAS WILL SEE IMPROVING VSBYS DURING
THE DAY...BUT KEPT 4SM-6SM VSBYS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 060235
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
935 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HI-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT...OPTED TO
DECREASE POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN. DID NOT
GET RID OF THEM COMPLETELY...BUT DID CREATE A MUCH TIGHTER POP
GRADIENT. WE ALSO LIMITED THE ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES EVEN
MORE...WITH AN ISOLATED MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. HELD ONTO THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA FROM MONTANA. THE LATEST ITERATION OF
THE RAP13 SHOWS THE WAVE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES...SO KEPT
POPS RELATIVELY LOW FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 829 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND DECREASE ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO
ISOLATED. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD LAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING.
MUCAPE HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH ANY LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOWN MAINLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE TRENDS IN THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT TONIGHT. SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DIMINISHED...WHILE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RISING NORTH OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE THIS EVENING. A H5 WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS MONTANA WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL THE
FORECAST HAS CAUGHT THE TRENDS WELL...SO MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
REFINE POPS.

SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES HAS AGAIN REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS HARD TO
KNOW FOR SURE HOW LOW VISIBILITIES MAY DROP...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISSUING ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATE A DYING LINE OF
CONVECTION PUSHING OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER IS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THINK
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE REMOVED
SEVERE WORDING FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION
STREAMING IN FROM MONTANA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100KT JET SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NORTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS CONVECTION
IS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WE EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
REMAIN THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL LINE UP WITH THE UPPER JET IN A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST ZONES. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO
CREATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WITH
DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE WEST...THE LAYER OF MOISTURE IS
RATHER THIN...AROUND 5-7K FEET...WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE. THUS
WILL KEEP THE SHOWER WORDING AND NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER. IT
WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SMOKE/HAZE ISSUES CARRIED OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM SHOULD AGAIN
CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD RESUMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...A 1021MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER MORE COMFORTABLE AIR WILL ENSUE WITH
DEWPOINTS/LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 45F AND 50F TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SMOKE/HAZE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS AS IT MOVES INTO MINNESOTA ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND THE HIGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
DURING THE DAY...THEN INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LEESIDE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH ALSO INITIATES OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY. DATA INDICATING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AT 33KTS...WITH CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG PER GFS AND LESS
THAN 100 J/KG IN THE ECMWF. SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ARRIVES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF A JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER DAY FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
SLIDING ATOP OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID
LEVEL RIDGING/H7-H5...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL TREND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND
SUPERBLEND IS FOR A DRY FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST WITH A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
SUPPORTS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REPORT MVFR VISIBILITIES...WITH SOME REPORTS OF IFR. WILL
CARRY AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS...WITH
IFR ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND WEST (KISN...KMOT...KDIK). AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KDIK...KBIS AND
KJMS...BUT ONLY CARRIED A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN AT KJMS BASED ON
NEAR TERM RADAR TRENDS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CK





000
FXUS63 KBIS 060235
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
935 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HI-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT...OPTED TO
DECREASE POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN. DID NOT
GET RID OF THEM COMPLETELY...BUT DID CREATE A MUCH TIGHTER POP
GRADIENT. WE ALSO LIMITED THE ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES EVEN
MORE...WITH AN ISOLATED MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. HELD ONTO THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA FROM MONTANA. THE LATEST ITERATION OF
THE RAP13 SHOWS THE WAVE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES...SO KEPT
POPS RELATIVELY LOW FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 829 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND DECREASE ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO
ISOLATED. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD LAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING.
MUCAPE HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH ANY LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOWN MAINLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE TRENDS IN THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT TONIGHT. SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DIMINISHED...WHILE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RISING NORTH OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE THIS EVENING. A H5 WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS MONTANA WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL THE
FORECAST HAS CAUGHT THE TRENDS WELL...SO MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
REFINE POPS.

SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES HAS AGAIN REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS HARD TO
KNOW FOR SURE HOW LOW VISIBILITIES MAY DROP...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISSUING ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATE A DYING LINE OF
CONVECTION PUSHING OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER IS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THINK
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE REMOVED
SEVERE WORDING FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION
STREAMING IN FROM MONTANA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100KT JET SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NORTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS CONVECTION
IS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WE EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
REMAIN THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL LINE UP WITH THE UPPER JET IN A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST ZONES. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO
CREATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WITH
DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE WEST...THE LAYER OF MOISTURE IS
RATHER THIN...AROUND 5-7K FEET...WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE. THUS
WILL KEEP THE SHOWER WORDING AND NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER. IT
WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SMOKE/HAZE ISSUES CARRIED OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM SHOULD AGAIN
CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD RESUMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...A 1021MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER MORE COMFORTABLE AIR WILL ENSUE WITH
DEWPOINTS/LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 45F AND 50F TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SMOKE/HAZE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS AS IT MOVES INTO MINNESOTA ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND THE HIGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
DURING THE DAY...THEN INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LEESIDE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH ALSO INITIATES OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY. DATA INDICATING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AT 33KTS...WITH CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG PER GFS AND LESS
THAN 100 J/KG IN THE ECMWF. SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ARRIVES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF A JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER DAY FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
SLIDING ATOP OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID
LEVEL RIDGING/H7-H5...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL TREND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND
SUPERBLEND IS FOR A DRY FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST WITH A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
SUPPORTS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REPORT MVFR VISIBILITIES...WITH SOME REPORTS OF IFR. WILL
CARRY AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS...WITH
IFR ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND WEST (KISN...KMOT...KDIK). AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KDIK...KBIS AND
KJMS...BUT ONLY CARRIED A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN AT KJMS BASED ON
NEAR TERM RADAR TRENDS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 060130
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
830 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 829 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND DECREASE ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO
ISOLATED. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD LAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING.
MUCAPE HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH ANY LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOWN MAINLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE TRENDS IN THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT TONIGHT. SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DIMINISHED...WHILE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RISING NORTH OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE THIS EVENING. A H5 WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS MONTANA WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL THE
FORECAST HAS CAUGHT THE TRENDS WELL...SO MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
REFINE POPS.

SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES HAS AGAIN REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS HARD TO
KNOW FOR SURE HOW LOW VISIBILITIES MAY DROP...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISSUING ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATE A DYING LINE OF
CONVECTION PUSHING OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER IS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THINK
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE REMOVED
SEVERE WORDING FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION
STREAMING IN FROM MONTANA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100KT JET SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NORTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS CONVECTION
IS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WE EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
REMAIN THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL LINE UP WITH THE UPPER JET IN A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST ZONES. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO
CREATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WITH
DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE WEST...THE LAYER OF MOISTURE IS
RATHER THIN...AROUND 5-7K FEET...WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE. THUS
WILL KEEP THE SHOWER WORDING AND NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER. IT
WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SMOKE/HAZE ISSUES CARRIED OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM SHOULD AGAIN
CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD RESUMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...A 1021MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER MORE COMFORTABLE AIR WILL ENSUE WITH
DEWPOINTS/LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 45F AND 50F TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SMOKE/HAZE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS AS IT MOVES INTO MINNESOTA ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND THE HIGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
DURING THE DAY...THEN INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LEESIDE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH ALSO INITIATES OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY. DATA INDICATING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AT 33KTS...WITH CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG PER GFS AND LESS
THAN 100 J/KG IN THE ECMWF. SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ARRIVES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF A JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER DAY FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
SLIDING ATOP OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID
LEVEL RIDGING/H7-H5...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL TREND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND
SUPERBLEND IS FOR A DRY FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST WITH A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
SUPPORTS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REPORT MVFR VISIBILITIES...WITH SOME REPORTS OF IFR. WILL
CARRY AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS...WITH
IFR ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND WEST (KISN...KMOT...KDIK). AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KDIK...KBIS AND
KJMS...BUT ONLY CARRIED A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN AT KJMS BASED ON
NEAR TERM RADAR TRENDS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 052353
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
653 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE TRENDS IN THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT TONIGHT. SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DIMINISHED...WHILE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RISING NORTH OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE THIS EVENING. A H5 WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS MONTANA WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL THE
FORECAST HAS CAUGHT THE TRENDS WELL...SO MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
REFINE POPS.

SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES HAS AGAIN REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS HARD TO
KNOW FOR SURE HOW LOW VISIBILITIES MAY DROP...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISSUING ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATE A DYING LINE OF
CONVECTION PUSHING OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER IS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THINK
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE REMOVED
SEVERE WORDING FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION
STREAMING IN FROM MONTANA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100KT JET SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NORTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS CONVECTION
IS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WE EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
REMAIN THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL LINE UP WITH THE UPPER JET IN A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST ZONES. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO
CREATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WITH
DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE WEST...THE LAYER OF MOISTURE IS
RATHER THIN...AROUND 5-7K FEET...WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE. THUS
WILL KEEP THE SHOWER WORDING AND NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER. IT
WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SMOKE/HAZE ISSUES CARRIED OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM SHOULD AGAIN
CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD RESUMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...A 1021MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER MORE COMFORTABLE AIR WILL ENSUE WITH
DEWPOINTS/LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 45F AND 50F TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SMOKE/HAZE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS AS IT MOVES INTO MINNESOTA ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND THE HIGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
DURING THE DAY...THEN INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LEESIDE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH ALSO INITIATES OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY. DATA INDICATING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AT 33KTS...WITH CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG PER GFS AND LESS
THAN 100 J/KG IN THE ECMWF. SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ARRIVES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF A JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER DAY FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
SLIDING ATOP OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID
LEVEL RIDGING/H7-H5...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL TREND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND
SUPERBLEND IS FOR A DRY FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST WITH A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
SUPPORTS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REPORT MVFR VISIBILITIES...WITH SOME REPORTS OF IFR. WILL
CARRY AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS...WITH
IFR ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND WEST (KISN...KMOT...KDIK). AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KDIK...KBIS AND
KJMS...BUT ONLY CARRIED A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN AT KJMS BASED ON
NEAR TERM RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CK





000
FXUS63 KBIS 052353
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
653 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE TRENDS IN THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT TONIGHT. SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DIMINISHED...WHILE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RISING NORTH OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE THIS EVENING. A H5 WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS MONTANA WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL THE
FORECAST HAS CAUGHT THE TRENDS WELL...SO MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
REFINE POPS.

SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES HAS AGAIN REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS HARD TO
KNOW FOR SURE HOW LOW VISIBILITIES MAY DROP...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISSUING ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATE A DYING LINE OF
CONVECTION PUSHING OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER IS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THINK
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE REMOVED
SEVERE WORDING FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION
STREAMING IN FROM MONTANA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100KT JET SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NORTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS CONVECTION
IS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WE EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
REMAIN THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL LINE UP WITH THE UPPER JET IN A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST ZONES. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO
CREATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WITH
DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE WEST...THE LAYER OF MOISTURE IS
RATHER THIN...AROUND 5-7K FEET...WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE. THUS
WILL KEEP THE SHOWER WORDING AND NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER. IT
WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SMOKE/HAZE ISSUES CARRIED OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM SHOULD AGAIN
CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD RESUMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...A 1021MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER MORE COMFORTABLE AIR WILL ENSUE WITH
DEWPOINTS/LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 45F AND 50F TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SMOKE/HAZE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS AS IT MOVES INTO MINNESOTA ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND THE HIGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
DURING THE DAY...THEN INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LEESIDE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH ALSO INITIATES OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY. DATA INDICATING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AT 33KTS...WITH CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG PER GFS AND LESS
THAN 100 J/KG IN THE ECMWF. SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ARRIVES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF A JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER DAY FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
SLIDING ATOP OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID
LEVEL RIDGING/H7-H5...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL TREND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND
SUPERBLEND IS FOR A DRY FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST WITH A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
SUPPORTS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REPORT MVFR VISIBILITIES...WITH SOME REPORTS OF IFR. WILL
CARRY AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS...WITH
IFR ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND WEST (KISN...KMOT...KDIK). AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KDIK...KBIS AND
KJMS...BUT ONLY CARRIED A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN AT KJMS BASED ON
NEAR TERM RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 052353
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
653 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE TRENDS IN THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT TONIGHT. SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DIMINISHED...WHILE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RISING NORTH OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE THIS EVENING. A H5 WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS MONTANA WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL THE
FORECAST HAS CAUGHT THE TRENDS WELL...SO MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
REFINE POPS.

SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES HAS AGAIN REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS HARD TO
KNOW FOR SURE HOW LOW VISIBILITIES MAY DROP...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISSUING ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATE A DYING LINE OF
CONVECTION PUSHING OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER IS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THINK
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE REMOVED
SEVERE WORDING FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION
STREAMING IN FROM MONTANA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100KT JET SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NORTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS CONVECTION
IS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WE EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
REMAIN THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL LINE UP WITH THE UPPER JET IN A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST ZONES. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO
CREATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WITH
DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE WEST...THE LAYER OF MOISTURE IS
RATHER THIN...AROUND 5-7K FEET...WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE. THUS
WILL KEEP THE SHOWER WORDING AND NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER. IT
WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SMOKE/HAZE ISSUES CARRIED OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM SHOULD AGAIN
CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD RESUMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...A 1021MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER MORE COMFORTABLE AIR WILL ENSUE WITH
DEWPOINTS/LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 45F AND 50F TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SMOKE/HAZE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS AS IT MOVES INTO MINNESOTA ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND THE HIGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
DURING THE DAY...THEN INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LEESIDE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH ALSO INITIATES OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY. DATA INDICATING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AT 33KTS...WITH CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG PER GFS AND LESS
THAN 100 J/KG IN THE ECMWF. SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ARRIVES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF A JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER DAY FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
SLIDING ATOP OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID
LEVEL RIDGING/H7-H5...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL TREND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND
SUPERBLEND IS FOR A DRY FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST WITH A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
SUPPORTS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REPORT MVFR VISIBILITIES...WITH SOME REPORTS OF IFR. WILL
CARRY AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS...WITH
IFR ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND WEST (KISN...KMOT...KDIK). AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KDIK...KBIS AND
KJMS...BUT ONLY CARRIED A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN AT KJMS BASED ON
NEAR TERM RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 052353
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
653 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE TRENDS IN THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT TONIGHT. SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE DIMINISHED...WHILE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RISING NORTH OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE THIS EVENING. A H5 WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS MONTANA WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL THE
FORECAST HAS CAUGHT THE TRENDS WELL...SO MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
REFINE POPS.

SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILD FIRES HAS AGAIN REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS HARD TO
KNOW FOR SURE HOW LOW VISIBILITIES MAY DROP...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISSUING ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATE A DYING LINE OF
CONVECTION PUSHING OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER IS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THINK
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE REMOVED
SEVERE WORDING FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION
STREAMING IN FROM MONTANA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100KT JET SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NORTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS CONVECTION
IS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WE EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
REMAIN THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL LINE UP WITH THE UPPER JET IN A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST ZONES. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO
CREATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WITH
DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE WEST...THE LAYER OF MOISTURE IS
RATHER THIN...AROUND 5-7K FEET...WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE. THUS
WILL KEEP THE SHOWER WORDING AND NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER. IT
WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SMOKE/HAZE ISSUES CARRIED OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM SHOULD AGAIN
CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD RESUMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...A 1021MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER MORE COMFORTABLE AIR WILL ENSUE WITH
DEWPOINTS/LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 45F AND 50F TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SMOKE/HAZE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS AS IT MOVES INTO MINNESOTA ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND THE HIGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
DURING THE DAY...THEN INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LEESIDE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH ALSO INITIATES OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY. DATA INDICATING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AT 33KTS...WITH CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG PER GFS AND LESS
THAN 100 J/KG IN THE ECMWF. SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ARRIVES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF A JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER DAY FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
SLIDING ATOP OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID
LEVEL RIDGING/H7-H5...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL TREND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND
SUPERBLEND IS FOR A DRY FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST WITH A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
SUPPORTS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REPORT MVFR VISIBILITIES...WITH SOME REPORTS OF IFR. WILL
CARRY AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS...WITH
IFR ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND WEST (KISN...KMOT...KDIK). AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KDIK...KBIS AND
KJMS...BUT ONLY CARRIED A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN AT KJMS BASED ON
NEAR TERM RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CK





000
FXUS63 KBIS 052038
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATE A DYING LINE OF
CONVECTION PUSHING OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER IS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THINK
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE REMOVED
SEVERE WORDING FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION
STREAMING IN FROM MONTANA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100KT JET SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NORTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS CONVECTION
IS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WE EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
REMAIN THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL LINE UP WITH THE UPPER JET IN A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST ZONES. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO
CREATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WITH
DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE WEST...THE LAYER OF MOISTURE IS
RATHER THIN...AROUND 5-7K FEET...WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE. THUS
WILL KEEP THE SHOWER WORDING AND NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER. IT
WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SMOKE/HAZE ISSUES CARRIED OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM SHOULD AGAIN
CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD RESUMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...A 1021MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER MORE COMFORTABLE AIR WILL ENSUE WITH
DEWPOINTS/LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 45F AND 50F TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SMOKE/HAZE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS AS IT MOVES INTO MINNESOTA ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND THE HIGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
DURING THE DAY...THEN INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LEESIDE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH ALSO INITIATES OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY. DATA INDICATING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AT 33KTS...WITH CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG PER GFS AND LESS
THAN 100 J/KG IN THE ECMWF. SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ARRIVES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF A JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER DAY FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
SLIDING ATOP OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID
LEVEL RIDGING/H7-H5...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL TREND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND
SUPERBLEND IS FOR A DRY FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST WITH A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
SUPPORTS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVE THROUGH ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. WILL MENTION
THUNDER AT KJMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
TO VCSH AT REMAINING TAF SITES. AREAS MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIFT TO VFR...THEN EXPECT MAINLY VFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 052038
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATE A DYING LINE OF
CONVECTION PUSHING OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER IS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THINK
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE REMOVED
SEVERE WORDING FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION
STREAMING IN FROM MONTANA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100KT JET SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NORTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS CONVECTION
IS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WE EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
REMAIN THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL LINE UP WITH THE UPPER JET IN A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST ZONES. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO
CREATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WITH
DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE WEST...THE LAYER OF MOISTURE IS
RATHER THIN...AROUND 5-7K FEET...WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE. THUS
WILL KEEP THE SHOWER WORDING AND NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER. IT
WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SMOKE/HAZE ISSUES CARRIED OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM SHOULD AGAIN
CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD RESUMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...A 1021MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER MORE COMFORTABLE AIR WILL ENSUE WITH
DEWPOINTS/LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 45F AND 50F TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SMOKE/HAZE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS AS IT MOVES INTO MINNESOTA ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND THE HIGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
DURING THE DAY...THEN INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LEESIDE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH ALSO INITIATES OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY. DATA INDICATING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AT 33KTS...WITH CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG PER GFS AND LESS
THAN 100 J/KG IN THE ECMWF. SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ARRIVES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF A JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER DAY FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
SLIDING ATOP OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID
LEVEL RIDGING/H7-H5...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL TREND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND
SUPERBLEND IS FOR A DRY FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST WITH A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
SUPPORTS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVE THROUGH ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. WILL MENTION
THUNDER AT KJMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
TO VCSH AT REMAINING TAF SITES. AREAS MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIFT TO VFR...THEN EXPECT MAINLY VFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 052038
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATE A DYING LINE OF
CONVECTION PUSHING OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER IS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THINK
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE REMOVED
SEVERE WORDING FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION
STREAMING IN FROM MONTANA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100KT JET SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NORTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS CONVECTION
IS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WE EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
REMAIN THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL LINE UP WITH THE UPPER JET IN A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST ZONES. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO
CREATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WITH
DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE WEST...THE LAYER OF MOISTURE IS
RATHER THIN...AROUND 5-7K FEET...WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE. THUS
WILL KEEP THE SHOWER WORDING AND NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER. IT
WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SMOKE/HAZE ISSUES CARRIED OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM SHOULD AGAIN
CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD RESUMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...A 1021MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER MORE COMFORTABLE AIR WILL ENSUE WITH
DEWPOINTS/LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 45F AND 50F TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SMOKE/HAZE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS AS IT MOVES INTO MINNESOTA ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND THE HIGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
DURING THE DAY...THEN INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LEESIDE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH ALSO INITIATES OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY. DATA INDICATING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AT 33KTS...WITH CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG PER GFS AND LESS
THAN 100 J/KG IN THE ECMWF. SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ARRIVES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF A JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER DAY FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
SLIDING ATOP OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID
LEVEL RIDGING/H7-H5...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL TREND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND
SUPERBLEND IS FOR A DRY FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST WITH A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
SUPPORTS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVE THROUGH ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. WILL MENTION
THUNDER AT KJMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
TO VCSH AT REMAINING TAF SITES. AREAS MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIFT TO VFR...THEN EXPECT MAINLY VFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 052038
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATE A DYING LINE OF
CONVECTION PUSHING OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER IS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THINK
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL...THUS HAVE REMOVED
SEVERE WORDING FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION
STREAMING IN FROM MONTANA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100KT JET SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NORTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS CONVECTION
IS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WE EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
REMAIN THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL LINE UP WITH THE UPPER JET IN A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST ZONES. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO
CREATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WITH
DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE WEST...THE LAYER OF MOISTURE IS
RATHER THIN...AROUND 5-7K FEET...WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE. THUS
WILL KEEP THE SHOWER WORDING AND NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER. IT
WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SMOKE/HAZE ISSUES CARRIED OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM SHOULD AGAIN
CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD RESUMES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S TUESDAY...GRADUALLY RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...A 1021MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WITH A QUASI WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A TRANQUIL WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER MORE COMFORTABLE AIR WILL ENSUE WITH
DEWPOINTS/LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 45F AND 50F TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SMOKE/HAZE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS AS IT MOVES INTO MINNESOTA ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND THE HIGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RISING INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
DURING THE DAY...THEN INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LEESIDE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH ALSO INITIATES OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING TUESDAY. DATA INDICATING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RESULTANT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES AT 33KTS...WITH CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG PER GFS AND LESS
THAN 100 J/KG IN THE ECMWF. SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING ARRIVES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF A JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER DAY FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
SLIDING ATOP OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID
LEVEL RIDGING/H7-H5...WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE...BUT NOT ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL TREND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND
SUPERBLEND IS FOR A DRY FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST WITH A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES TO IMPINGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
SUPPORTS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVE THROUGH ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. WILL MENTION
THUNDER AT KJMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
TO VCSH AT REMAINING TAF SITES. AREAS MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIFT TO VFR...THEN EXPECT MAINLY VFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 051806
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
106 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVE OUT OF OUR EASTERN CWA. STILL
A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDER EXTENDING FROM AROUND
KJMS SOUTHWEST TO LINTON AND SELFRIDGE IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS...ANY LIGHTNING HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN BORDER AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR THE UPDATE HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. KEPT
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...SOUTH AND
EAST OF CURRENT LINE OF SHOWERS. AFTER LOOKING AT NAM/RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS...THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT IT DIMINISHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WE GET FARTHER INTO THE COLDER AIR.
ALSO...NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE FOR A
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE. YET ENOUGH BULK SHEAR ALOFT WITH SOME
INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST TO KEEP THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A MENTION OF SEVERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REMOVED OR LOWERED THUNDER TO ISOLATED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAINLY ANOTHER RADAR UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 833 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOWERED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST. RAISED POPS MOST AREAS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
EXTRAPOLATED EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WERE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH NOT SEVERE AS
YET...SOME STORMS WERE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS WELL AS
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FROM THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR PEMBINA TO NEAR DEVILS
LAKE TO NEAR DICKINSON AND BOWMAN...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA.

THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS STORMS THAT DEVELOPED SATURDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS NOW INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE STORMS THAT REDEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE DECREASED.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH 3 DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER...AS THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BOWING STRUCTURE
APPROACHING DAMSON/APEX/ COUNTIES IN EASTERN MONTANA SHOULD REACH
THE /GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY AREA BETWEEN 4AM/5AM CDT...3AM/4AM MDT.
A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONTEMPLATED FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

LATER THIS MORNING THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE ELONGATES INTO A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING CAPE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING TO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH
AND JET STREAK ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION WITH MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OF ANY CAPE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S
FOR TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BRING OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH DEVELOPS EAST INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL
FORCING ALOFT DIMINISHES WED NIGHT.

MAINLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER FRIDAY AND
NEXT WEEKEND PERIODS. WHILE BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO JULY NORMALS...THE GFS PORTRAYS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THUS A VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS MORE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES SO MORE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WE OPTED TO STAY WITH AN OVERALL BLEND WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVE THROUGH ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. WILL MENTION
THUNDER AT KJMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
TO VCSH AT REMAINING TAF SITES. AREAS MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIFT TO VFR...THEN EXPECT MAINLY VFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 051806
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
106 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVE OUT OF OUR EASTERN CWA. STILL
A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDER EXTENDING FROM AROUND
KJMS SOUTHWEST TO LINTON AND SELFRIDGE IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS...ANY LIGHTNING HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN BORDER AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR THE UPDATE HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. KEPT
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...SOUTH AND
EAST OF CURRENT LINE OF SHOWERS. AFTER LOOKING AT NAM/RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS...THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT IT DIMINISHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WE GET FARTHER INTO THE COLDER AIR.
ALSO...NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE FOR A
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE. YET ENOUGH BULK SHEAR ALOFT WITH SOME
INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST TO KEEP THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A MENTION OF SEVERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REMOVED OR LOWERED THUNDER TO ISOLATED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAINLY ANOTHER RADAR UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 833 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOWERED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST. RAISED POPS MOST AREAS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
EXTRAPOLATED EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WERE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH NOT SEVERE AS
YET...SOME STORMS WERE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS WELL AS
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FROM THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR PEMBINA TO NEAR DEVILS
LAKE TO NEAR DICKINSON AND BOWMAN...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA.

THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS STORMS THAT DEVELOPED SATURDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS NOW INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE STORMS THAT REDEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE DECREASED.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH 3 DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER...AS THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BOWING STRUCTURE
APPROACHING DAMSON/APEX/ COUNTIES IN EASTERN MONTANA SHOULD REACH
THE /GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY AREA BETWEEN 4AM/5AM CDT...3AM/4AM MDT.
A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONTEMPLATED FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

LATER THIS MORNING THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE ELONGATES INTO A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING CAPE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING TO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH
AND JET STREAK ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION WITH MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OF ANY CAPE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S
FOR TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BRING OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH DEVELOPS EAST INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL
FORCING ALOFT DIMINISHES WED NIGHT.

MAINLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER FRIDAY AND
NEXT WEEKEND PERIODS. WHILE BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO JULY NORMALS...THE GFS PORTRAYS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THUS A VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS MORE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES SO MORE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WE OPTED TO STAY WITH AN OVERALL BLEND WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVE THROUGH ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. WILL MENTION
THUNDER AT KJMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
TO VCSH AT REMAINING TAF SITES. AREAS MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIFT TO VFR...THEN EXPECT MAINLY VFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 051806
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
106 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVE OUT OF OUR EASTERN CWA. STILL
A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDER EXTENDING FROM AROUND
KJMS SOUTHWEST TO LINTON AND SELFRIDGE IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS...ANY LIGHTNING HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN BORDER AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR THE UPDATE HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. KEPT
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...SOUTH AND
EAST OF CURRENT LINE OF SHOWERS. AFTER LOOKING AT NAM/RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS...THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT IT DIMINISHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WE GET FARTHER INTO THE COLDER AIR.
ALSO...NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE FOR A
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE. YET ENOUGH BULK SHEAR ALOFT WITH SOME
INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST TO KEEP THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A MENTION OF SEVERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REMOVED OR LOWERED THUNDER TO ISOLATED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAINLY ANOTHER RADAR UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 833 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOWERED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST. RAISED POPS MOST AREAS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
EXTRAPOLATED EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WERE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH NOT SEVERE AS
YET...SOME STORMS WERE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS WELL AS
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FROM THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR PEMBINA TO NEAR DEVILS
LAKE TO NEAR DICKINSON AND BOWMAN...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA.

THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS STORMS THAT DEVELOPED SATURDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS NOW INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE STORMS THAT REDEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE DECREASED.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH 3 DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER...AS THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BOWING STRUCTURE
APPROACHING DAMSON/APEX/ COUNTIES IN EASTERN MONTANA SHOULD REACH
THE /GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY AREA BETWEEN 4AM/5AM CDT...3AM/4AM MDT.
A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONTEMPLATED FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

LATER THIS MORNING THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE ELONGATES INTO A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING CAPE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING TO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH
AND JET STREAK ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION WITH MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OF ANY CAPE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S
FOR TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BRING OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH DEVELOPS EAST INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL
FORCING ALOFT DIMINISHES WED NIGHT.

MAINLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER FRIDAY AND
NEXT WEEKEND PERIODS. WHILE BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO JULY NORMALS...THE GFS PORTRAYS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THUS A VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS MORE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES SO MORE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WE OPTED TO STAY WITH AN OVERALL BLEND WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVE THROUGH ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. WILL MENTION
THUNDER AT KJMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
TO VCSH AT REMAINING TAF SITES. AREAS MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIFT TO VFR...THEN EXPECT MAINLY VFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 051806
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
106 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVE OUT OF OUR EASTERN CWA. STILL
A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDER EXTENDING FROM AROUND
KJMS SOUTHWEST TO LINTON AND SELFRIDGE IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS...ANY LIGHTNING HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN BORDER AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR THE UPDATE HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. KEPT
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...SOUTH AND
EAST OF CURRENT LINE OF SHOWERS. AFTER LOOKING AT NAM/RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS...THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT IT DIMINISHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WE GET FARTHER INTO THE COLDER AIR.
ALSO...NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE FOR A
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE. YET ENOUGH BULK SHEAR ALOFT WITH SOME
INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST TO KEEP THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A MENTION OF SEVERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REMOVED OR LOWERED THUNDER TO ISOLATED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAINLY ANOTHER RADAR UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 833 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOWERED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST. RAISED POPS MOST AREAS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
EXTRAPOLATED EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WERE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH NOT SEVERE AS
YET...SOME STORMS WERE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS WELL AS
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FROM THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR PEMBINA TO NEAR DEVILS
LAKE TO NEAR DICKINSON AND BOWMAN...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA.

THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS STORMS THAT DEVELOPED SATURDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS NOW INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE STORMS THAT REDEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE DECREASED.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH 3 DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER...AS THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BOWING STRUCTURE
APPROACHING DAMSON/APEX/ COUNTIES IN EASTERN MONTANA SHOULD REACH
THE /GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY AREA BETWEEN 4AM/5AM CDT...3AM/4AM MDT.
A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONTEMPLATED FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

LATER THIS MORNING THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE ELONGATES INTO A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING CAPE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING TO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH
AND JET STREAK ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION WITH MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OF ANY CAPE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S
FOR TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BRING OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH DEVELOPS EAST INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL
FORCING ALOFT DIMINISHES WED NIGHT.

MAINLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER FRIDAY AND
NEXT WEEKEND PERIODS. WHILE BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO JULY NORMALS...THE GFS PORTRAYS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THUS A VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS MORE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES SO MORE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WE OPTED TO STAY WITH AN OVERALL BLEND WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVE THROUGH ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. WILL MENTION
THUNDER AT KJMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
TO VCSH AT REMAINING TAF SITES. AREAS MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIFT TO VFR...THEN EXPECT MAINLY VFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 051521
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1021 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAINLY ANOTHER RADAR UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 833 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOWERED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST. RAISED POPS MOST AREAS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
EXTRAPOLATED EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WERE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH NOT SEVERE AS
YET...SOME STORMS WERE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS WELL AS
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FROM THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR PEMBINA TO NEAR DEVILS
LAKE TO NEAR DICKINSON AND BOWMAN...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA.

THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS STORMS THAT DEVELOPED SATURDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS NOW INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE STORMS THAT REDEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE DECREASED.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH 3 DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER...AS THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BOWING STRUCTURE
APPROACHING DAMSON/APEX/ COUNTIES IN EASTERN MONTANA SHOULD REACH
THE /GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY AREA BETWEEN 4AM/5AM CDT...3AM/4AM MDT.
A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONTEMPLATED FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

LATER THIS MORNING THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE ELONGATES INTO A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING CAPE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING TO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH
AND JET STREAK ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION WITH MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OF ANY CAPE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S
FOR TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BRING OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH DEVELOPS EAST INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL
FORCING ALOFT DIMINISHES WED NIGHT.

MAINLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER FRIDAY AND
NEXT WEEKEND PERIODS. WHILE BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO JULY NORMALS...THE GFS PORTRAYS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THUS A VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS MORE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES SO MORE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WE OPTED TO STAY WITH AN OVERALL BLEND WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 833 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WERE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH NOT SEVERE AS
YET...SOME STORMS WERE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS WELL AS
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 051521
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1021 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAINLY ANOTHER RADAR UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 833 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOWERED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST. RAISED POPS MOST AREAS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
EXTRAPOLATED EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WERE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH NOT SEVERE AS
YET...SOME STORMS WERE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS WELL AS
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FROM THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR PEMBINA TO NEAR DEVILS
LAKE TO NEAR DICKINSON AND BOWMAN...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA.

THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS STORMS THAT DEVELOPED SATURDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS NOW INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE STORMS THAT REDEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE DECREASED.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH 3 DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER...AS THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BOWING STRUCTURE
APPROACHING DAMSON/APEX/ COUNTIES IN EASTERN MONTANA SHOULD REACH
THE /GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY AREA BETWEEN 4AM/5AM CDT...3AM/4AM MDT.
A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONTEMPLATED FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

LATER THIS MORNING THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE ELONGATES INTO A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING CAPE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING TO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH
AND JET STREAK ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION WITH MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OF ANY CAPE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S
FOR TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BRING OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH DEVELOPS EAST INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL
FORCING ALOFT DIMINISHES WED NIGHT.

MAINLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER FRIDAY AND
NEXT WEEKEND PERIODS. WHILE BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO JULY NORMALS...THE GFS PORTRAYS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THUS A VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS MORE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES SO MORE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WE OPTED TO STAY WITH AN OVERALL BLEND WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 833 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WERE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH NOT SEVERE AS
YET...SOME STORMS WERE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS WELL AS
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 051339
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
839 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 833 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOWERED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST. RAISED POPS MOST AREAS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
EXTRAPOLATED EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WERE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH NOT SEVERE AS
YET...SOME STORMS WERE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS WELL AS
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FROM THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR PEMBINA TO NEAR DEVILS
LAKE TO NEAR DICKINSON AND BOWMAN...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA.

THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS STORMS THAT DEVELOPED SATURDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS NOW INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE STORMS THAT REDEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE DECREASED.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH 3 DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER...AS THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BOWING STRUCTURE
APPROACHING DAMSON/APEX/ COUNTIES IN EASTERN MONTANA SHOULD REACH
THE /GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY AREA BETWEEN 4AM/5AM CDT...3AM/4AM MDT.
A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONTEMPLATED FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

LATER THIS MORNING THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE ELONGATES INTO A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING CAPE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING TO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH
AND JET STREAK ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION WITH MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OF ANY CAPE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S
FOR TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BRING OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH DEVELOPS EAST INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL
FORCING ALOFT DIMINISHES WED NIGHT.

MAINLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER FRIDAY AND
NEXT WEEKEND PERIODS. WHILE BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO JULY NORMALS...THE GFS PORTRAYS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THUS A VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS MORE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES SO MORE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WE OPTED TO STAY WITH AN OVERALL BLEND WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 833 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WERE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH NOT SEVERE AS
YET...SOME STORMS WERE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS WELL AS
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 051339
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
839 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 833 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOWERED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST. RAISED POPS MOST AREAS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
EXTRAPOLATED EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WERE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH NOT SEVERE AS
YET...SOME STORMS WERE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS WELL AS
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FROM THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR PEMBINA TO NEAR DEVILS
LAKE TO NEAR DICKINSON AND BOWMAN...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA.

THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS STORMS THAT DEVELOPED SATURDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS NOW INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE STORMS THAT REDEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE DECREASED.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH 3 DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER...AS THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BOWING STRUCTURE
APPROACHING DAMSON/APEX/ COUNTIES IN EASTERN MONTANA SHOULD REACH
THE /GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY AREA BETWEEN 4AM/5AM CDT...3AM/4AM MDT.
A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONTEMPLATED FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

LATER THIS MORNING THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE ELONGATES INTO A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING CAPE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING TO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH
AND JET STREAK ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION WITH MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OF ANY CAPE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S
FOR TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BRING OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH DEVELOPS EAST INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL
FORCING ALOFT DIMINISHES WED NIGHT.

MAINLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER FRIDAY AND
NEXT WEEKEND PERIODS. WHILE BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO JULY NORMALS...THE GFS PORTRAYS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THUS A VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS MORE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES SO MORE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WE OPTED TO STAY WITH AN OVERALL BLEND WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 833 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WERE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH NOT SEVERE AS
YET...SOME STORMS WERE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS WELL AS
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 051339
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
839 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 833 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOWERED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST. RAISED POPS MOST AREAS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
EXTRAPOLATED EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WERE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH NOT SEVERE AS
YET...SOME STORMS WERE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS WELL AS
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FROM THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR PEMBINA TO NEAR DEVILS
LAKE TO NEAR DICKINSON AND BOWMAN...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA.

THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS STORMS THAT DEVELOPED SATURDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS NOW INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE STORMS THAT REDEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE DECREASED.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH 3 DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER...AS THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BOWING STRUCTURE
APPROACHING DAMSON/APEX/ COUNTIES IN EASTERN MONTANA SHOULD REACH
THE /GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY AREA BETWEEN 4AM/5AM CDT...3AM/4AM MDT.
A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONTEMPLATED FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

LATER THIS MORNING THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE ELONGATES INTO A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING CAPE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING TO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH
AND JET STREAK ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION WITH MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OF ANY CAPE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S
FOR TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BRING OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH DEVELOPS EAST INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL
FORCING ALOFT DIMINISHES WED NIGHT.

MAINLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER FRIDAY AND
NEXT WEEKEND PERIODS. WHILE BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO JULY NORMALS...THE GFS PORTRAYS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THUS A VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS MORE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES SO MORE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WE OPTED TO STAY WITH AN OVERALL BLEND WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 833 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WERE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH NOT SEVERE AS
YET...SOME STORMS WERE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS WELL AS
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 051339
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
839 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 833 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOWERED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST. RAISED POPS MOST AREAS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
EXTRAPOLATED EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WERE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH NOT SEVERE AS
YET...SOME STORMS WERE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS WELL AS
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FROM THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR PEMBINA TO NEAR DEVILS
LAKE TO NEAR DICKINSON AND BOWMAN...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA.

THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS STORMS THAT DEVELOPED SATURDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS NOW INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE STORMS THAT REDEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE DECREASED.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH 3 DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER...AS THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BOWING STRUCTURE
APPROACHING DAMSON/APEX/ COUNTIES IN EASTERN MONTANA SHOULD REACH
THE /GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY AREA BETWEEN 4AM/5AM CDT...3AM/4AM MDT.
A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONTEMPLATED FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

LATER THIS MORNING THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE ELONGATES INTO A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING CAPE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING TO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH
AND JET STREAK ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION WITH MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OF ANY CAPE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S
FOR TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BRING OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH DEVELOPS EAST INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL
FORCING ALOFT DIMINISHES WED NIGHT.

MAINLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER FRIDAY AND
NEXT WEEKEND PERIODS. WHILE BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO JULY NORMALS...THE GFS PORTRAYS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THUS A VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS MORE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES SO MORE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WE OPTED TO STAY WITH AN OVERALL BLEND WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 833 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WERE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH NOT SEVERE AS
YET...SOME STORMS WERE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS WELL AS
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 051121
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
621 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WERE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH NOT SEVERE AS
YET...SOME STORMS WERE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS WELL AS
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FROM THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR PEMBINA TO NEAR DEVILS
LAKE TO NEAR DICKINSON AND BOWMAN...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA.

THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS STORMS THAT DEVELOPED SATURDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS NOW INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE STORMS THAT REDEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE DECREASED.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH 3 DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER...AS THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BOWING STRUCTURE
APPROACHING DAWSON/WIBAUX/RICHLAND COUNTIES IN EASTERN MONTANA
SHOULD REACH THE MCKENZIE/GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY AREA BETWEEN 4AM/5AM
CDT...3AM/4AM MDT. A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING
CONTEMPLATED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

LATER THIS MORNING THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE ELONGATES INTO A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING CAPE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING TO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH
AND JET STREAK ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION WITH MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OF ANY CAPE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S
FOR TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BRING OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH DEVELOPS EAST INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL
FORCING ALOFT DIMINISHES WED NIGHT.

MAINLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER FRIDAY AND
NEXT WEEKEND PERIODS. WHILE BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO JULY NORMALS...THE GFS PORTRAYS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THUS A VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS MORE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES SO MORE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WE OPTED TO STAY WITH AN OVERALL BLEND WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF MONTANA HAD REACHED KISN
AND WAS APPROACHING KDIK.

WILL KEEP A TEMPO GROUP WITH VRB GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THOSE
TWO SITES. CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD APPROACH KMOT
WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AND KBIS BY AROUND 13Z.

LATER THIS MORNING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL TAFS...AND THIS
AFTERNOON AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS. MORE SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY POSSIBLE AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS.

PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AT KISN...ENDING AROUND 03Z AT KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 050820
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FROM THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR PEMBINA TO NEAR DEVILS
LAKE TO NEAR DICKINSON AND BOWMAN...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA.

THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS STORMS THAT DEVELOPED SATURDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS NOW INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE STORMS THAT REDEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE DECREASED.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH 3 DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER...AS THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BOWING STRUCTURE
APPROACHING DAWSON/WIBAUX/RICHLAND COUNTIES IN EASTERN MONTANA
SHOULD REACH THE MCKENZIE/GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY AREA BETWEEN 4AM/5AM
CDT...3AM/4AM MDT. A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING
CONTEMPLATED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

LATER THIS MORNING THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE ELONGATES INTO A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING CAPE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING TO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH
AND JET STREAK ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION WITH MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OF ANY CAPE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S
FOR TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BRING OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH DEVELOPS EAST INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL
FORCING ALOFT DIMINISHES WED NIGHT.

MAINLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER FRIDAY AND
NEXT WEEKEND PERIODS. WHILE BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO JULY NORMALS...THE GFS PORTRAYS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THUS A VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS MORE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES SO MORE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WE OPTED TO STAY WITH AN OVERALL BLEND WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR KJMS APPEARS TO BE OVER FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THREAT INCREASES DURING THE DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF MONTANA LIKELY WILL REACH
KISN AROUND 09Z-10Z AND KDIK 10Z-11Z. THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MORE LIKELY AT KDIK AND PLAN TO UPDATE TAF AS NEEDED THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STRONG WINDS WITH STORMS MOVING AT AROUND
40 KNOTS.

LATER THIS MORNING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL TAFS...AND THIS
AFTERNOON AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS. MORE SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY POSSIBLE AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 050820
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FROM THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR PEMBINA TO NEAR DEVILS
LAKE TO NEAR DICKINSON AND BOWMAN...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA.

THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS STORMS THAT DEVELOPED SATURDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS NOW INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE STORMS THAT REDEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE DECREASED.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH 3 DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER...AS THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BOWING STRUCTURE
APPROACHING DAWSON/WIBAUX/RICHLAND COUNTIES IN EASTERN MONTANA
SHOULD REACH THE MCKENZIE/GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY AREA BETWEEN 4AM/5AM
CDT...3AM/4AM MDT. A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING
CONTEMPLATED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

LATER THIS MORNING THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE ELONGATES INTO A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING CAPE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING TO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH
AND JET STREAK ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION WITH MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OF ANY CAPE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S
FOR TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BRING OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH DEVELOPS EAST INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL
FORCING ALOFT DIMINISHES WED NIGHT.

MAINLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER FRIDAY AND
NEXT WEEKEND PERIODS. WHILE BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO JULY NORMALS...THE GFS PORTRAYS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THUS A VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS MORE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES SO MORE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WE OPTED TO STAY WITH AN OVERALL BLEND WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR KJMS APPEARS TO BE OVER FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THREAT INCREASES DURING THE DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF MONTANA LIKELY WILL REACH
KISN AROUND 09Z-10Z AND KDIK 10Z-11Z. THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MORE LIKELY AT KDIK AND PLAN TO UPDATE TAF AS NEEDED THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STRONG WINDS WITH STORMS MOVING AT AROUND
40 KNOTS.

LATER THIS MORNING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL TAFS...AND THIS
AFTERNOON AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS. MORE SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY POSSIBLE AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 050820
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FROM THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR PEMBINA TO NEAR DEVILS
LAKE TO NEAR DICKINSON AND BOWMAN...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA.

THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS STORMS THAT DEVELOPED SATURDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS NOW INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE STORMS THAT REDEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE DECREASED.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH 3 DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER...AS THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BOWING STRUCTURE
APPROACHING DAWSON/WIBAUX/RICHLAND COUNTIES IN EASTERN MONTANA
SHOULD REACH THE MCKENZIE/GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY AREA BETWEEN 4AM/5AM
CDT...3AM/4AM MDT. A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING
CONTEMPLATED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

LATER THIS MORNING THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE ELONGATES INTO A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING CAPE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING TO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY
A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH
AND JET STREAK ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION WITH MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OF ANY CAPE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S
FOR TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ANOTHER JET STREAK TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BRING OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH DEVELOPS EAST INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL
FORCING ALOFT DIMINISHES WED NIGHT.

MAINLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPS UP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER FRIDAY AND
NEXT WEEKEND PERIODS. WHILE BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO JULY NORMALS...THE GFS PORTRAYS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THUS A VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS MORE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES SO MORE SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WE OPTED TO STAY WITH AN OVERALL BLEND WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR KJMS APPEARS TO BE OVER FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THREAT INCREASES DURING THE DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF MONTANA LIKELY WILL REACH
KISN AROUND 09Z-10Z AND KDIK 10Z-11Z. THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MORE LIKELY AT KDIK AND PLAN TO UPDATE TAF AS NEEDED THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STRONG WINDS WITH STORMS MOVING AT AROUND
40 KNOTS.

LATER THIS MORNING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL TAFS...AND THIS
AFTERNOON AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS. MORE SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY POSSIBLE AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 050536
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1236 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR PEMBINA TO NEAR DEVILS LAKE TO
DICKINSON. STORMS IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE FRONT HAD
DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST AS FAR AS EDDY AND NEAR FOSTER COUNTY. SHORT
RANGE HIGH RES MODELS HINT AT MORE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT EACH HOUR`S RUN DIFFERS ON HOW FAR SOUTHWEST IT
DEPICTS THE DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS HAS INDICATED A
TONGUE OF 7 C/KM EXTENDING FROM NEAR HETTINGER TO EDDY/FOSTER
COUNTY...WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS REACHING
ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN
CONVECTION AT LEAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE
RAISED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN JAMES BASIN FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND
SEVERAL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT WITH THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN/NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS WAVE IS
FORECAST TO REACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEST LATE TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

STORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EAST.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE A
FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO ALSO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THE EVENING CONTINUES AND LOWER LEVELS COOL. FOR
EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO CURRENT THUNDERSTORM TRENDS.
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG
INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSING LINE...SO EXPECT THE
SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. ALSO...A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO
RANDOMLY POP UP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE NEAR THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. ONE TO THE EAST OF JAMESTOWN HAS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL...BUT SO FAR HAS REMAINED SUB-SEVERE. OFF TO THE FAR
NORTHWEST...STORMS HAVE BEEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST SO EXPECT TO BE
TRIMMING OFF THE BACK SIDE OF THE WATCH SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA...AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH...BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE.
INITIAL STORM MODE MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...INCREASING
DEWPOINT SPREADS AND HIGH LCLS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. EXPECT
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO MERGE
INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

EXPECT MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE
STABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE TONIGHT...THINK THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST...WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES OF THUNDER AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST...THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL MENTION
SEVERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MILD AND STORMY WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG TERM.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS NORTH
DAKOTA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. RETURN
FLOW KICKS RIGHT BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN WARM UP WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH MANY PROGRESSIVE WAVES BRINGING REGULAR CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SCT TSRA MAY AFFECT THE KJMS TAF SITE THROUGH 11Z. HAVE
INTRODUCED VCTS AT KISN AND KDIK AROUND 09-11Z WITH CONVECTION
FROM MONTANA EXPECTED TO REACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE
SUNRISE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR...THOUGH SOME LCL MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS
WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE. LATER SUNDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBYS/CIGS. SHOWERS ENDING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING AROUND 00Z SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 050228
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
928 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

STORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EAST.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE A
FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO ALSO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THE EVENING CONTINUES AND LOWER LEVELS COOL. FOR
EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO CURRENT THUNDERSTORM TRENDS.
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG
INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSING LINE...SO EXPECT THE
SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. ALSO...A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO
RANDOMLY POP UP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE NEAR THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. ONE TO THE EAST OF JAMESTOWN HAS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL...BUT SO FAR HAS REMAINED SUB-SEVERE. OFF TO THE FAR
NORTHWEST...STORMS HAVE BEEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST SO EXPECT TO BE
TRIMMING OFF THE BACK SIDE OF THE WATCH SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA...AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH...BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE.
INITIAL STORM MODE MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...INCREASING
DEWPOINT SPREADS AND HIGH LCLS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. EXPECT
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO MERGE
INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

EXPECT MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE
STABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE TONIGHT...THINK THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST...WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES OF THUNDER AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST...THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL MENTION
SEVERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MILD AND STORMY WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG TERM.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS NORTH
DAKOTA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. RETURN
FLOW KICKS RIGHT BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN WARM UP WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH MANY PROGRESSIVE WAVES BRINGING REGULAR CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SCT TSRA...SOME WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL...WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH SOME LCL MVFR VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ON SUNDAY...SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LCL MVFR
VIS/CIGS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 050228
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
928 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

STORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EAST.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE A
FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO ALSO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THE EVENING CONTINUES AND LOWER LEVELS COOL. FOR
EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO CURRENT THUNDERSTORM TRENDS.
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG
INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSING LINE...SO EXPECT THE
SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. ALSO...A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO
RANDOMLY POP UP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE NEAR THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. ONE TO THE EAST OF JAMESTOWN HAS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL...BUT SO FAR HAS REMAINED SUB-SEVERE. OFF TO THE FAR
NORTHWEST...STORMS HAVE BEEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST SO EXPECT TO BE
TRIMMING OFF THE BACK SIDE OF THE WATCH SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA...AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH...BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE.
INITIAL STORM MODE MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...INCREASING
DEWPOINT SPREADS AND HIGH LCLS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. EXPECT
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO MERGE
INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

EXPECT MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE
STABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE TONIGHT...THINK THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST...WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES OF THUNDER AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST...THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL MENTION
SEVERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MILD AND STORMY WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG TERM.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS NORTH
DAKOTA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. RETURN
FLOW KICKS RIGHT BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN WARM UP WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH MANY PROGRESSIVE WAVES BRINGING REGULAR CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SCT TSRA...SOME WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL...WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH SOME LCL MVFR VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ON SUNDAY...SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LCL MVFR
VIS/CIGS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 050005
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
705 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG
INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSING LINE...SO EXPECT THE
SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. ALSO...A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO
RANDOMLY POP UP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE NEAR THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. ONE TO THE EAST OF JAMESTOWN HAS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL...BUT SO FAR HAS REMAINED SUB-SEVERE. OFF TO THE FAR
NORTHWEST...STORMS HAVE BEEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST SO EXPECT TO BE
TRIMMING OFF THE BACK SIDE OF THE WATCH SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA...AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH...BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE.
INITIAL STORM MODE MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...INCREASING
DEWPOINT SPREADS AND HIGH LCLS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. EXPECT
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO MERGE
INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

EXPECT MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE
STABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE TONIGHT...THINK THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST...WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES OF THUNDER AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST...THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL MENTION
SEVERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MILD AND STORMY WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG TERM.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS NORTH
DAKOTA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. RETURN
FLOW KICKS RIGHT BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN WARM UP WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH MANY PROGRESSIVE WAVES BRINGING REGULAR CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SCT TSRA...SOME WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL...WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH SOME LCL MVFR VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ON SUNDAY...SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LCL MVFR
VIS/CIGS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 050005
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
705 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG
INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSING LINE...SO EXPECT THE
SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. ALSO...A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO
RANDOMLY POP UP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE NEAR THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. ONE TO THE EAST OF JAMESTOWN HAS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL...BUT SO FAR HAS REMAINED SUB-SEVERE. OFF TO THE FAR
NORTHWEST...STORMS HAVE BEEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST SO EXPECT TO BE
TRIMMING OFF THE BACK SIDE OF THE WATCH SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA...AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH...BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE.
INITIAL STORM MODE MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...INCREASING
DEWPOINT SPREADS AND HIGH LCLS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. EXPECT
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO MERGE
INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

EXPECT MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE
STABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE TONIGHT...THINK THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST...WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES OF THUNDER AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST...THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL MENTION
SEVERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MILD AND STORMY WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG TERM.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS NORTH
DAKOTA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. RETURN
FLOW KICKS RIGHT BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN WARM UP WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH MANY PROGRESSIVE WAVES BRINGING REGULAR CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SCT TSRA...SOME WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL...WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH SOME LCL MVFR VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ON SUNDAY...SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LCL MVFR
VIS/CIGS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 041929
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
229 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA...AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH...BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE.
INITIAL STORM MODE MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...INCREASING
DEWPOINT SPREADS AND HIGH LCLS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. EXPECT
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO MERGE
INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

EXPECT MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE
STABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE TONIGHT...THINK THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST...WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES OF THUNDER AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST...THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL MENTION
SEVERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MILD AND STORMY WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG TERM.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS NORTH
DAKOTA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. RETURN
FLOW KICKS RIGHT BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN WARM UP WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH MANY PROGRESSIVE WAVES BRINGING REGULAR CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE/HAZE HAS ABATED SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WILL BE ABLE TO BE ABLE
TO START OUT ALL TAF SITES WITH P6SM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
ANY STORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LOW VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 041929
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
229 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA...AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH...BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE.
INITIAL STORM MODE MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...INCREASING
DEWPOINT SPREADS AND HIGH LCLS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. EXPECT
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO MERGE
INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

EXPECT MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE
STABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE TONIGHT...THINK THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST...WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES OF THUNDER AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST...THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL MENTION
SEVERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MILD AND STORMY WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG TERM.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS NORTH
DAKOTA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. RETURN
FLOW KICKS RIGHT BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN WARM UP WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH MANY PROGRESSIVE WAVES BRINGING REGULAR CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE/HAZE HAS ABATED SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WILL BE ABLE TO BE ABLE
TO START OUT ALL TAF SITES WITH P6SM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
ANY STORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LOW VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 041805
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
105 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WE CONTINUE
TO DESTABILIZE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ML CAPES ARE
CURRENTLY 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
DIMINISHING CIN AND INCREASING LAPSE RATES. LATEST ITERATION OF
THE HRRR SEEMS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MID TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. CAM MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING SOME AGREEMENT
WITH CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN CANADA
MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SEVERE OVER
THE NORTHWEST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. COLD FRONT FROM
MANITOBA SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. LATEST RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS
THEN NORTHWEST NORTH CENTRAL LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM KEEPS ENOUGH OF A CAP OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN. LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ONE WEAK SAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY
WITH NOTHING IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM TO SPARK CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST ITERATION OF THE HRRR ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS PREVIOUS RUNS.

OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LATEST
ITERATION OF THE HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION HERE AROUND MID
AFTERNOON BUT NEVER GETS GOING. RAP FORECAST SOUNDING AT JMS
INDICATES LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL WILL BE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THUS FAR HIGH RES MODELS HAVE OVERDONE PRECIPITATION WITH NO
RETURNS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON RADAR AT THE
MOMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY AM FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE THIS MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE BORDER OF
ALBERTA/SASK/MT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS OCCURRING OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOW DISCOUNTED THIS THREAT
FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW DEPICTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS RAISED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS AREA FROM A
MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR
HAVRE MONTANA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BY THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE
THE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
IT WOULD EXTEND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO BOWMAN...AND REACHING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
DEVELOP PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...AND
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE STRONGER FORCING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS
THINKING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WOULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COUPLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION (RER) OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPAWN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST
QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AND STRONG PVA ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF ND MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET
THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

ANOTHER JET STREAK DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA...TRIGGERING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDERNEATH THE
RER OF THE UPPER JET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY QUIETER PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE/HAZE HAS ABATED SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WILL BE ABLE TO BE ABLE
TO START OUT ALL TAF SITES WITH P6SM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE FLOW
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LOW VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 041805
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
105 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WE CONTINUE
TO DESTABILIZE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ML CAPES ARE
CURRENTLY 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
DIMINISHING CIN AND INCREASING LAPSE RATES. LATEST ITERATION OF
THE HRRR SEEMS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MID TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. CAM MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING SOME AGREEMENT
WITH CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN CANADA
MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SEVERE OVER
THE NORTHWEST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. COLD FRONT FROM
MANITOBA SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. LATEST RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS
THEN NORTHWEST NORTH CENTRAL LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM KEEPS ENOUGH OF A CAP OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN. LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ONE WEAK SAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY
WITH NOTHING IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM TO SPARK CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST ITERATION OF THE HRRR ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS PREVIOUS RUNS.

OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LATEST
ITERATION OF THE HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION HERE AROUND MID
AFTERNOON BUT NEVER GETS GOING. RAP FORECAST SOUNDING AT JMS
INDICATES LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL WILL BE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THUS FAR HIGH RES MODELS HAVE OVERDONE PRECIPITATION WITH NO
RETURNS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON RADAR AT THE
MOMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY AM FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE THIS MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE BORDER OF
ALBERTA/SASK/MT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS OCCURRING OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOW DISCOUNTED THIS THREAT
FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW DEPICTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS RAISED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS AREA FROM A
MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR
HAVRE MONTANA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BY THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE
THE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
IT WOULD EXTEND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO BOWMAN...AND REACHING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
DEVELOP PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...AND
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE STRONGER FORCING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS
THINKING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WOULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COUPLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION (RER) OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPAWN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST
QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AND STRONG PVA ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF ND MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET
THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

ANOTHER JET STREAK DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA...TRIGGERING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDERNEATH THE
RER OF THE UPPER JET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY QUIETER PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE/HAZE HAS ABATED SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WILL BE ABLE TO BE ABLE
TO START OUT ALL TAF SITES WITH P6SM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE FLOW
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LOW VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 041458
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
958 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. COLD FRONT FROM
MANITOBA SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. LATEST RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS
THEN NORTHWEST NORTH CENTRAL LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM KEEPS ENOUGH OF A CAP OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN. LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ONE WEAK SAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY
WITH NOTHING IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM TO SPARK CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST ITERATION OF THE HRRR ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS PREVIOUS RUNS.

OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LATEST
ITERATION OF THE HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION HERE AROUND MID
AFTERNOON BUT NEVER GETS GOING. RAP FORECAST SOUNDING AT JMS
INDICATES LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL WILL BE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THUS FAR HIGH RES MODELS HAVE OVERDONE PRECIPITATION WITH NO
RETURNS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON RADAR AT THE
MOMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY AM FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE THIS MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE BORDER OF
ALBERTA/SASK/MT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS OCCURRING OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOW DISCOUNTED THIS THREAT
FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW DEPICTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS RAISED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS AREA FROM A
MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR
HAVRE MONTANA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BY THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE
THE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
IT WOULD EXTEND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO BOWMAN...AND REACHING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
DEVELOP PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...AND
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE STRONGER FORCING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS
THINKING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WOULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COUPLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION (RER) OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPAWN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST
QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AND STRONG PVA ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF ND MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET
THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

ANOTHER JET STREAK DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA...TRIGGERING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDERNEATH THE
RER OF THE UPPER JET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY QUIETER PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HAS KEPT A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS TAF SITES AT 11Z. SMOKE CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. SOME FOG FORMATION MAY REDUCE KBIS AND
KJMS VSBYS TO 1SM AT TIMES UNTIL AROUND 14Z. ASOS CIG INDICATOR
DETECTING SMOKE AS A CLOUD LAYER IN SOME AREAS. THE RADIATION
INVERSION THAT HAS SET UP SHOULD KEEP THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTENT
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
BREAKS LATER TODAY...AROUND 16Z...EXPECTING VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ALL TAF SITES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONT APPROACHING
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT
KISN AND KMOT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS AT
KMOT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 041458
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
958 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. COLD FRONT FROM
MANITOBA SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. LATEST RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS
THEN NORTHWEST NORTH CENTRAL LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM KEEPS ENOUGH OF A CAP OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN. LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ONE WEAK SAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY
WITH NOTHING IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM TO SPARK CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST ITERATION OF THE HRRR ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS PREVIOUS RUNS.

OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LATEST
ITERATION OF THE HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION HERE AROUND MID
AFTERNOON BUT NEVER GETS GOING. RAP FORECAST SOUNDING AT JMS
INDICATES LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL WILL BE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THUS FAR HIGH RES MODELS HAVE OVERDONE PRECIPITATION WITH NO
RETURNS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON RADAR AT THE
MOMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY AM FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE THIS MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE BORDER OF
ALBERTA/SASK/MT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS OCCURRING OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOW DISCOUNTED THIS THREAT
FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW DEPICTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS RAISED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS AREA FROM A
MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR
HAVRE MONTANA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BY THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE
THE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
IT WOULD EXTEND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO BOWMAN...AND REACHING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
DEVELOP PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...AND
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE STRONGER FORCING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS
THINKING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WOULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COUPLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION (RER) OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPAWN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST
QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AND STRONG PVA ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF ND MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET
THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

ANOTHER JET STREAK DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA...TRIGGERING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDERNEATH THE
RER OF THE UPPER JET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY QUIETER PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HAS KEPT A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS TAF SITES AT 11Z. SMOKE CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. SOME FOG FORMATION MAY REDUCE KBIS AND
KJMS VSBYS TO 1SM AT TIMES UNTIL AROUND 14Z. ASOS CIG INDICATOR
DETECTING SMOKE AS A CLOUD LAYER IN SOME AREAS. THE RADIATION
INVERSION THAT HAS SET UP SHOULD KEEP THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTENT
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
BREAKS LATER TODAY...AROUND 16Z...EXPECTING VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ALL TAF SITES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONT APPROACHING
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT
KISN AND KMOT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS AT
KMOT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 041124
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THUS FAR HIGH RES MODELS HAVE OVERDONE PRECIPITATION WITH NO
RETURNS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON RADAR AT THE
MOMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY AM FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE THIS MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE BORDER OF
ALBERTA/SASK/MT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS OCCURRING OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOW DISCOUNTED THIS THREAT
FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW DEPICTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS RAISED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS AREA FROM A
MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR
HAVRE MONTANA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BY THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE
THE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
IT WOULD EXTEND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO BOWMAN...AND REACHING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
DEVELOP PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...AND
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE STRONGER FORCING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS
THINKING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WOULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COUPLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION (RER) OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPAWN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST
QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AND STRONG PVA ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF ND MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET
THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

ANOTHER JET STREAK DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA...TRIGGERING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDERNEATH THE
RER OF THE UPPER JET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY QUIETER PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HAS KEPT A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS TAF SITES AT 11Z. SMOKE CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. SOME FOG FORMATION MAY REDUCE KBIS AND
KJMS VSBYS TO 1SM AT TIMES UNTIL AROUND 14Z. ASOS CIG INDICATOR
DETECTING SMOKE AS A CLOUD LAYER IN SOME AREAS. THE RADIATION
INVERSION THAT HAS SET UP SHOULD KEEP THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTENT
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
BREAKS LATER TODAY...AROUND 16Z...EXPECTING VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ALL TAF SITES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONT APPROACHING
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT
KISN AND KMOT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS AT
KMOT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 041124
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THUS FAR HIGH RES MODELS HAVE OVERDONE PRECIPITATION WITH NO
RETURNS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON RADAR AT THE
MOMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY AM FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE THIS MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE BORDER OF
ALBERTA/SASK/MT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS OCCURRING OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOW DISCOUNTED THIS THREAT
FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW DEPICTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS RAISED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS AREA FROM A
MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR
HAVRE MONTANA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BY THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE
THE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
IT WOULD EXTEND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO BOWMAN...AND REACHING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
DEVELOP PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...AND
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE STRONGER FORCING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS
THINKING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WOULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COUPLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION (RER) OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPAWN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST
QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AND STRONG PVA ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF ND MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET
THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

ANOTHER JET STREAK DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA...TRIGGERING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDERNEATH THE
RER OF THE UPPER JET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY QUIETER PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HAS KEPT A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS TAF SITES AT 11Z. SMOKE CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. SOME FOG FORMATION MAY REDUCE KBIS AND
KJMS VSBYS TO 1SM AT TIMES UNTIL AROUND 14Z. ASOS CIG INDICATOR
DETECTING SMOKE AS A CLOUD LAYER IN SOME AREAS. THE RADIATION
INVERSION THAT HAS SET UP SHOULD KEEP THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTENT
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
BREAKS LATER TODAY...AROUND 16Z...EXPECTING VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ALL TAF SITES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONT APPROACHING
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT
KISN AND KMOT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS AT
KMOT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 040933
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE THIS MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE BORDER OF
ALBERTA/SASK/MT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS OCCURRING OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOW DISCOUNTED THIS THREAT
FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW DEPICTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS RAISED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS AREA FROM A
MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR
HAVRE MONTANA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BY THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE
THE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
IT WOULD EXTEND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO BOWMAN...AND REACHING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
DEVELOP PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...AND
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE STRONGER FORCING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS
THINKING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WOULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COUPLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION (RER) OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPAWN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST
QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AND STRONG PVA ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF ND MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET
THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

ANOTHER JET STREAK DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA...TRIGGERING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDERNEATH THE
RER OF THE UPPER JET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY QUIETER PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER IN THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HAS KEPT A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS TAF SITES AT 05Z. SMOKE CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. ASOS CIG INDICATOR DETECTING SMOKE AS A
CLOUD LAYER IN SOME AREAS. THE RADIATION INVERSION SETTING UP SHOULD
KEEP THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTENT FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS LATER TODAY...AROUND
16Z...EXPECTING VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ALL TAF SITES. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT KISN AND KMOT LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 040933
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE THIS MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE BORDER OF
ALBERTA/SASK/MT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS OCCURRING OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOW DISCOUNTED THIS THREAT
FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW DEPICTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS RAISED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS AREA FROM A
MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR
HAVRE MONTANA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BY THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE
THE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
IT WOULD EXTEND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO BOWMAN...AND REACHING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
DEVELOP PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...AND
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE STRONGER FORCING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS
THINKING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WOULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COUPLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION (RER) OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPAWN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST
QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AND STRONG PVA ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF ND MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET
THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

ANOTHER JET STREAK DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA...TRIGGERING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDERNEATH THE
RER OF THE UPPER JET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY QUIETER PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER IN THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HAS KEPT A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS TAF SITES AT 05Z. SMOKE CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. ASOS CIG INDICATOR DETECTING SMOKE AS A
CLOUD LAYER IN SOME AREAS. THE RADIATION INVERSION SETTING UP SHOULD
KEEP THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTENT FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS LATER TODAY...AROUND
16Z...EXPECTING VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ALL TAF SITES. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT KISN AND KMOT LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV




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