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000
FXUS63 KBIS 171212
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
712 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

BOWMAN RADAR WAS SHOWING WEAK RETURNS THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. FLURRIES THIS MORNING...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS LATER AS WE
WARM...WESTERN THIRD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WEST.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH
LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. PERSISTENT CLOUDS LINGERED
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM
MANITOBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...AND THE LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THAT LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA
CONTINUED OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THE AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...THEN WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS TODAY AND SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
H850 WINDS AROUND 25 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WITH GOOD WARM
ADVECTION AT H700 WITH WESTERLY WINDS. THIS SCENARIO WILL KEEP WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS
COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD
OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WITH THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE 40S...WITH
LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THIS LONG TERM DISCUSSION VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FROM YESTERDAY AND
EXPECTATIONS HAVE CHANGED ONLY SLIGHTLY FOR THE LONG TERM.

OF MOST INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP JUST IN
TIME FOR EASTER...WITH HIGHS 65 TO 70 FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAT DAY. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...
FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.

THE LONG TERM IS VERY ACTIVE WITH A MID LEVEL COLD POCKET PASSING
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO START...FOLLOWED BY
SIGNIFICANT RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK. THE COLD POCKET BRINGS MIXED
PRECIPITATION...PREDOMINANTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY TIMES AND SNOW
AT NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MAYBE AN INCH...
AT MOST...WEST AND NORTH. THIS WOULD BE QUICK TO MELT DURING DAY
TIMES AND WITH RAIN.

THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE LONG TERM...SO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...LOOKS WET AT FIRST AND THEN WITH COLDER AIR WORKING IN AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT...A CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION WOULD END AS A
PERIOD OF SNOW...THAT FOR APRIL 24-25...AND FOR MOST WOULD BE
UNWELCOME.

TO BACK UP A BIT CONCERNING THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE
THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF IT...INTO NORTH DAKOTA...IS NOW DEPICTED BY
THE MODELS NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAYS RUNS. THE LOW IS ALSO
DEPICTED WEAKER AND WITH THAT THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY LESS. CAPE THAT WAS FORECAST TO NEAR 1500 J/KG
ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND LI TO -4...IS NOW DEPICTED AS
LESS THAN 500 J/KG AND LI TO -2. IT IS STILL PRUDENT TO KEEP A
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THEY COULD BE MORE THUNDERSHOWERS
AS COMPARED TO STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

NO OBSERVATIONS FROM KISN AND USING SURROUNDING OBS AT
CROSBY/TIOGA/STANLEY/WATFORD CITY TO ISSUE A TAF BUT WITH NO
SCHEDULED AMENDMENTS DUE TO LACK OF OBSERVATIONS AT KISN. REPAIRS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MVFR CEILING AT KDIK AND PRESUMED MIX OF MVFR AND VFR AT KISN...WITH
VFR CIGS AT KMOT AND KBIS...AND JUST SCT CLOUDS KJMS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A DRY EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH WILL INHIBIT MVFR CEILINGS AT KMOT AND KBIS...AND
ESPECIALLY KJMS TODAY. ALL CIGS TO BECOME VFR BY AROUND 16Z AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE VCSH AT
KISN AND KDIK AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EASTWARD FROM MONTANA
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD BRING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 170939
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
439 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WEST.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH
LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. PERSISTENT CLOUDS LINGERED
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM
MANITOBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...AND THE LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THAT LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA
CONTINUED OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THE AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...THEN WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS TODAY AND SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
H850 WINDS AROUND 25 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WITH GOOD WARM
ADVECTION AT H700 WITH WESTERLY WINDS. THIS SCENARIO WILL KEEP WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS
COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD
OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WITH THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE 40S...WITH
LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THIS LONG TERM DISCUSSION VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FROM YESTERDAY AND
EXPECTATIONS HAVE CHANGED ONLY SLIGHTLY FOR THE LONG TERM.

OF MOST INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP JUST IN
TIME FOR EASTER...WITH HIGHS 65 TO 70 FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAT DAY. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...
FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.

THE LONG TERM IS VERY ACTIVE WITH A MID LEVEL COLD POCKET PASSING
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO START...FOLLOWED BY
SIGNIFICANT RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK. THE COLD POCKET BRINGS MIXED
PRECIPITATION...PREDOMINANTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY TIMES AND SNOW
AT NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MAYBE AN INCH...
AT MOST...WEST AND NORTH. THIS WOULD BE QUICK TO MELT DURING DAY
TIMES AND WITH RAIN.

THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE LONG TERM...SO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...LOOKS WET AT FIRST AND THEN WITH COLDER AIR WORKING IN AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT...A CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION WOULD END AS A
PERIOD OF SNOW...THAT FOR APRIL 24-25...AND FOR MOST WOULD BE
UNWELCOME.

TO BACK UP A BIT CONCERNING THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE
THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF IT...INTO NORTH DAKOTA...IS NOW DEPICTED BY
THE MODELS NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAYS RUNS. THE LOW IS ALSO
DEPICTED WEAKER AND WITH THAT THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY LESS. CAPE THAT WAS FORECAST TO NEAR 1500 J/KG
ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND LI TO -4...IS NOW DEPICTED AS
LESS THAN 500 J/KG AND LI TO -2. IT IS STILL PRUDENT TO KEEP A
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THEY COULD BE MORE THUNDERSHOWERS
AS COMPARED TO STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

NO OBSERVATIONS FROM KISN AND USING SURROUNDING OBS AT
CROSBY/TIOGA/STANLEY/WATFORD CITY TO ISSUE A TAF BUT WITH NO
SCHEDULED AMENDMENTS DUE TO LACK OF OBSERVATIONS AT KISN.

MVFR CEILING AT KDIK AND PRESUMED MIX OF MVFR AND VFR AT KISN...WITH
VFR CIGS AT KMOT AND KBIS...WITH CLEAR SKIES AT KJMS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A DRY EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH WILL INHIBIT MVFR CEILINGS AT KMOT AND KBIS...AND
ESPECIALLY KJMS TONIGHT. MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER KDIK AND KISN TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND A SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES. HAVE VCSH AT KISN BEGINNING
AROUND 14Z AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EASTWARD FROM MONTANA
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 170600
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
100 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES FROM STANLEY TO BEULAH...BUT STANLEY OBSERVATIONS NOT
INDICATING ANY LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE...SOME FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA AND APPROACH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW REFLECTIVITIES REMAINS FROM AROUND TIOGA
AND STANLEY SOUTH TO AROUND BEULAH AND GLEN ULLIN. A LOOK AT
WEATHER CAMS NEAR SUNSET INDICATED MAYBE SOME FLURRIES BUT NOTHING
MORE. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THIS AREA AND
WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO
THE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENS OVER THE
FAR WEST. LOWERED SKY COVER EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO PUSH EAST ON THURSDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS/WEATHER. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE BAND SLIDING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. CLEARING
SKIES OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST FROM ROLLA DOWN TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. BAND HAS
WEAKENED IN INTENSITY THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SO INTERPOLATED AN
AREA OF FLURRIES SOUTHWEST...INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WEATHER CAMERAS ARE INDICATING
MINIMAL IMPACT. OTHERWISE...LOWERED SKY COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WEST. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...PRODUCING SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES. WET ROADS COULD FREEZE QUICKLY
TOWARD EARLY EVENING AND CREATE SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST...MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AFTER
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...EXPECT REBOUNDING
TEMPS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A TRANSITION TO A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN...AND POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THEREAFTER...A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PROPAGATES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY PLACING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PROPAGATES ONTO THE
PLAINS...INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE. MOVING INTO
THURSDAY...THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF CLOSE OFF A POTENT LOW INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNOW. WHILE
SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CANADIAN PRAIRIES...PRECIPITATION TYPE AND PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FOR THE COMING DAYS. IN LIGHT OF MOIST
SOILS...HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

NO OBSERVATIONS FROM KISN AND USING SURROUNDING OBS AT
CROSBY/TIOGA/STANLEY/WATFORD CITY TO ISSUE A TAF BUT WITH NO
SCHEDULED AMENDMENTS DUE TO LACK OF OBSERVATIONS AT KISN.

MVFR CEILING AT KDIK AND PRESUMED MIX OF MVFR AND VFR AT KISN...WITH
VFR CIGS AT KMOT AND KBIS...WITH CLEAR SKIES AT KJMS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A DRY EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH WILL INHIBIT MVFR CEILINGS AT KMOT AND KBIS...AND
ESPECIALLY KJMS TONIGHT. MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER KDIK AND KISN TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND A SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES. HAVE VCSH AT KISN BEGINNING
AROUND 14Z AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EASTWARD FROM MONTANA
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 170238
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW REFLECTIVITIES REMAINS FROM AROUND TIOGA
AND STANLEY SOUTH TO AROUND BEULAH AND GLEN ULLIN. A LOOK AT
WEATHER CAMS NEAR SUNSET INDICATED MAYBE SOME FLURRIES BUT NOTHING
MORE. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THIS AREA AND
WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO
THE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENS OVER THE
FAR WEST. LOWERED SKY COVER EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO PUSH EAST ON THURSDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS/WEATHER. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE BAND SLIDING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. CLEARING
SKIES OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST FROM ROLLA DOWN TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. BAND HAS
WEAKENED IN INTENSITY THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SO INTERPOLATED AN
AREA OF FLURRIES SOUTHWEST...INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WEATHER CAMERAS ARE INDICATING
MINIMAL IMPACT. OTHERWISE...LOWERED SKY COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WEST. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...PRODUCING SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES. WET ROADS COULD FREEZE QUICKLY
TOWARD EARLY EVENING AND CREATE SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST...MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AFTER
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...EXPECT REBOUNDING
TEMPS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A TRANSITION TO A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN...AND POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THEREAFTER...A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PROPAGATES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY PLACING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PROPAGATES ONTO THE
PLAINS...INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE. MOVING INTO
THURSDAY...THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF CLOSE OFF A POTENT LOW INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNOW. WHILE
SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CANADIAN PRAIRIES...PRECIPITATION TYPE AND PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FOR THE COMING DAYS. IN LIGHT OF MOIST
SOILS...HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MVFR CEILING AT KDIK AND MVFR-LOW VFR CEILING AT KISN THIS
EVENING WITH VFR CEILINGS IN KMOT...KBIS...AND CLEAR SKIES JUST
EAST OF HERE TO KJMS. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A DRY EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INHIBIT MVFR CEILINGS AT
KMOT AND KBIS...AND ESPECIALLY KJMS TONIGHT. MVFR TO LOW VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER KDIK AND KISN TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES.
AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM NEAR KISN TO JUST WEST OF
MINOT CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. AT THIS TIME THINK
THAT IF ANY SNOW WOULD FALL AT KISN OR KDIK...VISIBILITIES WOULD
REMAIN ABOVE MVFR CATEGORY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES WILL REMAIN OVER THESE AERODROMES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 162250
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
550 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS/WEATHER. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE BAND SLIDING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. CLEARING
SKIES OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST FROM ROLLA DOWN TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. BAND HAS
WEAKENED IN INTENSITY THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SO INTERPOLATED AN
AREA OF FLURRIES SOUTHWEST...INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WEATHER CAMERAS ARE INDICATING
MINIMAL IMPACT. OTHERWISE...LOWERED SKY COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WEST. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...PRODUCING SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES. WET ROADS COULD FREEZE QUICKLY
TOWARD EARLY EVENING AND CREATE SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST...MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AFTER
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...EXPECT REBOUNDING
TEMPS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A TRANSITION TO A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN...AND POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THEREAFTER...A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PROPAGATES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY PLACING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PROPAGATES ONTO THE
PLAINS...INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE. MOVING INTO
THURSDAY...THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF CLOSE OFF A POTENT LOW INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNOW. WHILE
SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CANADIAN PRAIRIES...PRECIPITATION TYPE AND PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FOR THE COMING DAYS. IN LIGHT OF MOIST
SOILS...HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AT KDIK AND KISN LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CEILINGS IN KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
DRY EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD HELP LIMIT MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMOT AND KBIS...AND ESPECIALLY KJMS TONIGHT. MVFR TO
LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER KDIK AND KISN TONIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A SOUTHEAST FLOW
INCREASES. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM NEAR KISN TO JUST
WEST OF MINOT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST...AND COULD
MOVE INTO KISN AND KDIK THIS EVENING...THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES WITH MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN OVER THESE AERODROMES
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 162025
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WEST. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...PRODUCING SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES. WET ROADS COULD FREEZE QUICKLY
TOWARD EARLY EVENING AND CREATE SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST...MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AFTER
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...EXPECT REBOUNDING
TEMPS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A TRANSITION TO A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN...AND POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THEREAFTER...A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PROPAGATES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY PLACING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PROPAGATES ONTO THE
PLAINS...INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE. MOVING INTO
THURSDAY...THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF CLOSE OFF A POTENT LOW INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNOW. WHILE
SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CANADIAN PRAIRIES...PREICPITATION TYPE AND PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FOR THE COMING DAYS. IN LIGHT OF MOIST
SOILS...HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS AT KMOT AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES AT KBIS/KJMS.
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...AYD











000
FXUS63 KBIS 161814
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
114 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MIDDAY UPDATE MAINLY FOR POP/WEATHER TRENDS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
HELPING SUPPORT AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
HAS LINGERED LONGER THAN EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...A FEW STRAY
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPDATE MAINLY FOR POP/WEATHER TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE DROPPED
POPS DOWN INTO THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SOME LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH CENTRAL. LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED TO END DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS THE INHERITED SHORT TERM
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS RIGHT ON TRACK. NO CHANGES THIS CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TODAY.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS AT THE BORDER OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO
NEAR BOWMAN TO NEAR GLASGOW MONTANA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
INDICATES THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA BY THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATED PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH DAKOTA...SKIMMING THE NORTH DAKOTA
COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.

FARTHER NORTH WAS A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN TO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA - AND REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS HARVEY AND NORTH OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA. THIS ISENTROPIC
LIFTING WAS OCCURRING WITH STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS COINCIDENT
WITH STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY H850 WINDS. THIS LIFTING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING...WHEN SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AND H850 WINDS BECOME STRONGEST OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS IT IS EXPECTED THAT
SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FOR THE MOST PART OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY NOON. LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA
SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
FORCING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

EXPECTING SNOW TOTALS OF AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL TO 1-2 INCHES IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE 30S...AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

OF MOST INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP JUST
IN TIME FOR EASTER...AND THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH...LATE TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY.

THE LONG TERM IS VERY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES PASSING
THROUGH. THAT SHOULD KEEP THEM MOVING ALONG. THE FIRST COMES IN
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THESE BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION...
PREDOMINANTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY TIMES AND SNOW AT NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MAYBE AN INCH WEST AND NORTH
WITH THE FIRST WAVE...AND AN INCH OR SO NORTH WITH THE SECOND.
THIS WOULD BE QUICK TO MELT DURING DAY TIMES AND WITH RAIN.

THAT IS FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...NEARING 70 SOUTH.

ON TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
MODELS DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...AND INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CAPE NEARS 1500
J/KG ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND LI GOES TO -4 THERE. IF
THIS COMES TO PASS...I WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. THAT LOW MEANDERS AROUND
THE DAKOTAS INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE
CUTS OFF AND STALLS...WITH CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...
CLOUDS...AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS AT KMOT AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES AT KBIS/KJMS.
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JPM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 161515
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1015 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPDATE MAINLY FOR POP/WEATHER TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE DROPPED
POPS DOWN INTO THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SOME LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH CENTRAL. LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED TO END DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS THE INHERITED SHORT TERM
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS RIGHT ON TRACK. NO CHANGES THIS CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TODAY.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS AT THE BORDER OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO
NEAR BOWMAN TO NEAR GLASGOW MONTANA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
INDICATES THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA BY THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATED PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH DAKOTA...SKIMMING THE NORTH DAKOTA
COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.

FARTHER NORTH WAS A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN TO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA - AND REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS HARVEY AND NORTH OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA. THIS ISENTROPIC
LIFTING WAS OCCURRING WITH STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS COINCIDENT
WITH STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY H850 WINDS. THIS LIFTING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING...WHEN SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AND H850 WINDS BECOME STRONGEST OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS IT IS EXPECTED THAT
SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FOR THE MOST PART OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY NOON. LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA
SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
FORCING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

EXPECTING SNOW TOTALS OF AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL TO 1-2 INCHES IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE 30S...AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

OF MOST INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP JUST
IN TIME FOR EASTER...AND THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH...LATE TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY.

THE LONG TERM IS VERY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES PASSING
THROUGH. THAT SHOULD KEEP THEM MOVING ALONG. THE FIRST COMES IN
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THESE BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION...
PREDOMINANTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY TIMES AND SNOW AT NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MAYBE AN INCH WEST AND NORTH
WITH THE FIRST WAVE...AND AN INCH OR SO NORTH WITH THE SECOND.
THIS WOULD BE QUICK TO MELT DURING DAY TIMES AND WITH RAIN.

THAT IS FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...NEARING 70 SOUTH.

ON TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
MODELS DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...AND INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CAPE NEARS 1500
J/KG ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND LI GOES TO -4 THERE. IF
THIS COMES TO PASS...I WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. THAT LOW MEANDERS AROUND
THE DAKOTAS INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE
CUTS OFF AND STALLS...WITH CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...
CLOUDS...AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS AT KMOT AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES AT KBIS/KJMS.
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
CEILINGS AND SCATTERED LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JPM









000
FXUS63 KBIS 161143
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
643 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS THE INHERITED SHORT TERM
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS RIGHT ON TRACK. NO CHANGES THIS CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TODAY.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS AT THE BORDER OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO
NEAR BOWMAN TO NEAR GLASGOW MONTANA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
INDICATES THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA BY THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATED PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH DAKOTA...SKIMMING THE NORTH DAKOTA
COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.

FARTHER NORTH WAS A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN TO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA - AND REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS HARVEY AND NORTH OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA. THIS ISENTROPIC
LIFTING WAS OCCURRING WITH STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS COINCIDENT
WITH STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY H850 WINDS. THIS LIFTING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING...WHEN SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AND H850 WINDS BECOME STRONGEST OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS IT IS EXPECTED THAT
SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FOR THE MOST PART OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY NOON. LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA
SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
FORCING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

EXPECTING SNOW TOTALS OF AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL TO 1-2 INCHES IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE 30S...AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

OF MOST INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP JUST
IN TIME FOR EASTER...AND THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH...LATE TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY.

THE LONG TERM IS VERY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES PASSING
THROUGH. THAT SHOULD KEEP THEM MOVING ALONG. THE FIRST COMES IN
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THESE BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION...
PREDOMINANTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY TIMES AND SNOW AT NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MAYBE AN INCH WEST AND NORTH
WITH THE FIRST WAVE...AND AN INCH OR SO NORTH WITH THE SECOND.
THIS WOULD BE QUICK TO MELT DURING DAY TIMES AND WITH RAIN.

THAT IS FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...NEARING 70 SOUTH.

ON TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
MODELS DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...AND INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CAPE NEARS 1500
J/KG ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND LI GOES TO -4 THERE. IF
THIS COMES TO PASS...I WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. THAT LOW MEANDERS AROUND
THE DAKOTAS INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE
CUTS OFF AND STALLS...WITH CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...
CLOUDS...AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

EXPECTING MVFR...AND OCCASIONAL IFR...CIGS AND VSBYS IN -SN TO
CONTINUE FROM KMOT THROUGH KJMS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. OTHER SITES
WILL BE MVFR FOR CIGS WITH FLURRIES. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER
21Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...JPM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 160917
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
417 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TODAY.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS AT THE BORDER OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO
NEAR BOWMAN TO NEAR GLASGOW MONTANA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
INDICATES THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA BY THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATED PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH DAKOTA...SKIMMING THE NORTH DAKOTA
COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.

FARTHER NORTH WAS A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN TO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA - AND REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS HARVEY AND NORTH OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA. THIS ISENTROPIC
LIFTING WAS OCCURRING WITH STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS COINCIDENT
WITH STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY H850 WINDS. THIS LIFTING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING...WHEN SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AND H850 WINDS BECOME STRONGEST OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS IT IS EXPECTED THAT
SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FOR THE MOST PART OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY NOON. LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA
SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
FORCING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

EXPECTING SNOW TOTALS OF AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL TO 1-2 INCHES IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE 30S...AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

OF MOST INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP JUST
IN TIME FOR EASTER...AND THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH...LATE TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY.

THE LONG TERM IS VERY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES PASSING
THROUGH. THAT SHOULD KEEP THEM MOVING ALONG. THE FIRST COMES IN
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THESE BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION...
PREDOMINANTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY TIMES AND SNOW AT NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MAYBE AN INCH WEST AND NORTH
WITH THE FIRST WAVE...AND AN INCH OR SO NORTH WITH THE SECOND.
THIS WOULD BE QUICK TO MELT DURING DAY TIMES AND WITH RAIN.

THAT IS FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...NEARING 70 SOUTH.

ON TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
MODELS DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...AND INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CAPE NEARS 1500
J/KG ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND LI GOES TO -4 THERE. IF
THIS COMES TO PASS...I WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. THAT LOW MEANDERS AROUND
THE DAKOTAS INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE
CUTS OFF AND STALLS...WITH CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...
CLOUDS...AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

EXPECTING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE IN KMOT IN CIGS AND
VSBYS IN THE NEAR TERM...AND FOR OTHER TAF SITES TO BECOME MVFR/IFR
IN CIGS...WITH KJMS TO SEE MVFR/IFR VSBYS AS WELL. GUSTY EAST WINDS
TO BECOME NORTHEAST AFT 15Z...AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR
AROUND/AFT 18Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 160600
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
100 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO BOWMAN...TO NEAR
GLASGOW MONTANA...TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS
OVER THE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA/WYOMING BORDER. BOWMAN
RADAR SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN BOWMAN AND SLOPE COUNTIES -
SHOULD BE RAIN SHOWERS. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIPITATION REACHING
INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN NORTH DAKOTA.

MEANWHILE REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT SNOW...EXTENDING FROM NEAR CROSBY/STANLEY TO
MINOT TO JUST NORTH OF JAMESTOWN. MINOT HAS BEEN REPORTING LIGHT
SNOW FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES
- BUT AUTOMATED OBS REPORTING ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION. WEB
CAMS AT MINOT AIR FORCE BASE INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION IS CONSISTENT WITH SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATING THIS BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...REACHING INTO
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA. HAVE RAISED PRECIP CHANCES IN
THIS AREA FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT STILL EXPECTING ONLY AN
INCH OR SO OF SNOW THERE WITH PERHAPS 1-2 INCHES IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY
SURFACE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO LOWER AND
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE TO NEAR SATURATED
CONDITIONS.

WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
SATURATED BY THEN. NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

REGIONAL RADARS ARE DEPICTING A SWATH OF ELEVATED PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING FROM MINOT TO HARVEY...JAMESTOWN TO LISBON. NONE OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS REACHING THE GROUND AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE
TOO DRY (TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 10-20 DEGREES). THINK THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MOISTEN UP OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DECREASING DUE TO BOTH WET BULBING EFFECTS AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...STILL THINK SATURATION IS A FEW HOURS OFF FROM
NOW. AS A RESULT...UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD POP FORECAST TO COME
MORE IN LINE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA MOVING OVER
NORTH DAKOTA. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF I-94 AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FURTHERMORE...GIVEN THE EXPECTED WINDS AND CLOUD COVER...INCREASED
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A CATEGORY. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE
PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...A GENERAL RAIN/SNOW MIX...BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW
THIS EVENING. THERE ARE STILL SOME VARIATIONS AMONG MODEL QPF
FIELDS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL THINKING IS THE INITIAL SNOWFALL
WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE...WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. TO THE WEST...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR
LESS. HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED...HOWEVER SOME AREAS WILL HAVE A
SLICK MORNING COMMUTE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CLOSED 500MB LOW BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

LATEST 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT BOTH
ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED 500MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM FRIDAY 18 UTC THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY. LATEST 12 UTC OF THE
NH-GEM APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. THE 12 UTC NH-GEM SHOWS A DEEPER
500 MB TROUGH AND HAS THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 12
UTC SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE CLOSED LOW
WELL NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WHILE I BELIEVE OVER TIME
THE NH-GEM WILL COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...THE NH-GEM FORECAST FOR NOW HAS MUCH HEAVIER PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND SWITCH TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN BACK TO RAIN LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO THE GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN COOLER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HOW THIS DIFFERENCE PLAYS OUT
OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA RECEIVES AS FORECAST LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT ARE HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

EXPECTING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE IN KMOT IN CIGS AND
VSYBS IN THE NEAR TERM...AND FOR OTHER TAF SITES TO BECOME MVFR/IFR
IN CIGS...WITH KJMS TO SEE MVFR/IFR VSBYS AS WELL. GUSTY EAST WINDS
TO BECOME NORTHEAST AFT 15Z...AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR
AROUND/AFT 18Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 160242
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
942 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY
SURFACE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO LOWER AND
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE TO NEAR SATURATED
CONDITIONS.

WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
SATURATED BY THEN. NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

REGIONAL RADARS ARE DEPICTING A SWATH OF ELEVATED PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING FROM MINOT TO HARVEY...JAMESTOWN TO LISBON. NONE OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS REACHING THE GROUND AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE
TOO DRY (TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 10-20 DEGREES). THINK THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MOISTEN UP OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DECREASING DUE TO BOTH WET BULBING EFFECTS AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...STILL THINK SATURATION IS A FEW HOURS OFF FROM
NOW. AS A RESULT...UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD POP FORECAST TO COME
MORE IN LINE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA MOVING OVER
NORTH DAKOTA. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF I-94 AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FURTHERMORE...GIVEN THE EXPECTED WINDS AND CLOUD COVER...INCREASED
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A CATEGORY. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE
PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...A GENERAL RAIN/SNOW MIX...BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW
THIS EVENING. THERE ARE STILL SOME VARIATIONS AMONG MODEL QPF
FIELDS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL THINKING IS THE INITIAL SNOWFALL
WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE...WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. TO THE WEST...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR
LESS. HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED...HOWEVER SOME AREAS WILL HAVE A
SLICK MORNING COMMUTE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CLOSED 500MB LOW BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

LATEST 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT BOTH
ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED 500MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM FRIDAY 18 UTC THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY. LATEST 12 UTC OF THE
NH-GEM APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. THE 12 UTC NH-GEM SHOWS A DEEPER
500 MB TROUGH AND HAS THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 12
UTC SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE CLOSED LOW
WELL NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WHILE I BELIEVE OVER TIME
THE NH-GEM WILL COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...THE NH-GEM FORECAST FOR NOW HAS MUCH HEAVIER PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND SWITCH TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN BACK TO RAIN LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO THE GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN COOLER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HOW THIS DIFFERENCE PLAYS OUT
OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA RECEIVES AS FORECAST LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT ARE HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL MAINLY
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA (KDIK) AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE
I-94 CORRIDOR AND INTO KBIS AND KJMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS/TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 152356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
656 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

REGIONAL RADARS ARE DEPICTING A SWATH OF ELEVATED PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING FROM MINOT TO HARVEY...JAMESTOWN TO LISBON. NONE OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS REACHING THE GROUND AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE
TOO DRY (TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 10-20 DEGREES). THINK THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MOISTEN UP OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DECREASING DUE TO BOTH WET BULBING EFFECTS AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...STILL THINK SATURATION IS A FEW HOURS OFF FROM
NOW. AS A RESULT...UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD POP FORECAST TO COME
MORE IN LINE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA MOVING OVER
NORTH DAKOTA. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF I-94 AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FURTHERMORE...GIVEN THE EXPECTED WINDS AND CLOUD COVER...INCREASED
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A CATEGORY. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE
PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...A GENERAL RAIN/SNOW MIX...BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW
THIS EVENING. THERE ARE STILL SOME VARIATIONS AMONG MODEL QPF
FIELDS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL THINKING IS THE INITIAL SNOWFALL
WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE...WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. TO THE WEST...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR
LESS. HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED...HOWEVER SOME AREAS WILL HAVE A
SLICK MORNING COMMUTE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CLOSED 500MB LOW BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

LATEST 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT BOTH
ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED 500MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM FRIDAY 18 UTC THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY. LATEST 12 UTC OF THE
NH-GEM APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. THE 12 UTC NH-GEM SHOWS A DEEPER
500 MB TROUGH AND HAS THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 12
UTC SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE CLOSED LOW
WELL NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WHILE I BELIEVE OVER TIME
THE NH-GEM WILL COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...THE NH-GEM FORECAST FOR NOW HAS MUCH HEAVIER PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND SWITCH TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN BACK TO RAIN LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO THE GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN COOLER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HOW THIS DIFFERENCE PLAYS OUT
OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA RECEIVES AS FORECAST LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT ARE HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL MAINLY
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA (KDIK) AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE
I-94 CORRIDOR AND INTO KBIS AND KJMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS/TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 152031
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
331 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE
PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...A GENERAL RAIN/SNOW MIX...BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW
THIS EVENING. THERE ARE STILL SOME VARIATIONS AMONG MODEL QPF
FIELDS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL THINKING IS THE INITIAL SNOWFALL
WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE...WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. TO THE WEST...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR
LESS. HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED...HOWEVER SOME AREAS WILL HAVE A
SLICK MORNING COMMUTE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CLOSED 500MB LOW BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

LATEST 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT BOTH
ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED 500MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM FRIDAY 18 UTC THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY. LATEST 12 UTC OF THE
NH-GEM APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. THE 12 UTC NH-GEM SHOWS A DEEPER
500 MB TROUGH AND HAS THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 12
UTC SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE CLOSED LOW
WELL NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WHILE I BELIEVE OVER TIME
THE NH-GEM WILL COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...THE NH-GEM FORECAST FOR NOW HAS MUCH HEAVIER PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND SWITCH TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN BACK TO RAIN LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO THE GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN COOLER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HOW THIS DIFFERENCE PLAYS OUT
OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA RECEIVES AS FORECAST LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT ARE HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING BY THIS EVENING
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KBIS...WHERE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 06Z. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS FORECAST AT KDIK
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW...OTHERWISE SNOW EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON AT
KISN/KMOT/KDIK AROUND 10Z-11Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM SE
TO E/NE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...MM









000
FXUS63 KBIS 151814
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
114 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MIDDAY UPDATE MAINLY FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS
THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...A GENERAL RAIN/SNOW MIX...BEFORE
TURNING TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING. THERE ARE STILL SOME WIDE
VARIATIONS AMONG MODEL QPF FIELDS...BUT THE CURRENT THINKING STILL
FAVORS THE EASTERN COUNTIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW...AMOUNTS EXPECTED DO NOT WARRANT ANY
HEADLINES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MORNING UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND AFTERNOON POPS. HAVE EXPANDED THE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FOR LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON CONSENSUS OF LATEST MODEL
RUNS...INCLUDING RAP/HRRR. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED OTHER THAN
POPULATING GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE WEST PER IR IMAGERY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS WYOMING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE
ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES
AREA...KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA. MIDDLE AND
HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

TODAY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TOWARDS NEBRASKA...THEN HEADS
EAST ACROSS IOWA TO WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...THE LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD
BE AT THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING...SHOULD BE
CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN SD/NE BORDER BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND OVER WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES...AND HINTING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

TONIGHT THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW...AND KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES THERE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 THIS
EVENING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES ON ITS SOUTHEAST TRACK...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXPAND FARTHER ACROSS ALL OF THE STATE.

BY WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE STATE...AND WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SNOW OVER THE STATE...ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK
AND EAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WEST OF THIS LINE.

ALONG WITH THE SNOW...WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGHOUT THIS SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOOK FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY AHEAD OF THE
LOW. TONIGHT WINDS BECOME EASTERLY...THEN NORTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 25
MPH AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. ON WEDNESDAY NORTHEAST
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15 TO 25 MPH AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS WISCONSIN.

AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
50S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30S NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S...AND CONTINUED COLD WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MODELS ARE IN LIMITED AGREEMENT...BUT SEEM TO CAPTURE
THE MAJOR UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH. CHANCE OF PRECIP OCCURS THURSDAY WITH 100KT 250MB
JET STREAK DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN ND WHICH ALL OF THE MODELS ARE
PICKING UP. PROGRESSIVE RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HOLD OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN GFS...SHOWING 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE AT 06Z SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES COLDER.
PATTERN TURNS DRY AND WARMER FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WITH
MODELS/ENSEMBLES BUILDING BROAD RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SLOWLY BRINGING IT TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY BUT WILL REACH THE 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND APPROACH 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING BY THIS EVENING
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KBIS...WHERE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 06Z. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS FORECAST AT KDIK
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW...OTHERWISE SNOW EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON AT
KISN/KMOT/KDIK AROUND 10Z-11Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM SE
TO E/NE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 151435
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
935 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MORNING UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND AFTERNOON POPS. HAVE EXPANDED THE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FOR LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON CONSENSUS OF LATEST MODEL
RUNS...INCLUDING RAP/HRRR. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED OTHER THAN
POPULATING GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE WEST PER IR IMAGERY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS WYOMING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE
ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES
AREA...KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA. MIDDLE AND
HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

TODAY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TOWARDS NEBRASKA...THEN HEADS
EAST ACROSS IOWA TO WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...THE LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD
BE AT THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING...SHOULD BE
CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN SD/NE BORDER BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND OVER WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES...AND HINTING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

TONIGHT THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW...AND KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES THERE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 THIS
EVENING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES ON ITS SOUTHEAST TRACK...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXPAND FARTHER ACROSS ALL OF THE STATE.

BY WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE STATE...AND WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SNOW OVER THE STATE...ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK
AND EAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WEST OF THIS LINE.

ALONG WITH THE SNOW...WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGHOUT THIS SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOOK FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY AHEAD OF THE
LOW. TONIGHT WINDS BECOME EASTERLY...THEN NORTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 25
MPH AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. ON WEDNESDAY NORTHEAST
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15 TO 25 MPH AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS WISCONSIN.

AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
50S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30S NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S...AND CONTINUED COLD WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MODELS ARE IN LIMITED AGREEMENT...BUT SEEM TO CAPTURE
THE MAJOR UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH. CHANCE OF PRECIP OCCURS THURSDAY WITH 100KT 250MB
JET STREAK DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN ND WHICH ALL OF THE MODELS ARE
PICKING UP. PROGRESSIVE RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HOLD OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN GFS...SHOWING 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE AT 06Z SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES COLDER.
PATTERN TURNS DRY AND WARMER FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WITH
MODELS/ENSEMBLES BUILDING BROAD RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SLOWLY BRINGING IT TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY BUT WILL REACH THE 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND APPROACH 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE STATE. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KMOT) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE AT OR
APPROACH MVFR CIGS AFT 02Z WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. SOUTHEAST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST AFT 00Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 151150
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED OTHER THAN
POPULATING GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE WEST PER IR IMAGERY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS WYOMING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE
ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES
AREA...KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA. MIDDLE AND
HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

TODAY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TOWARDS NEBRASKA...THEN HEADS
EAST ACROSS IOWA TO WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...THE LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD
BE AT THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING...SHOULD BE
CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN SD/NE BORDER BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND OVER WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES...AND HINTING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

TONIGHT THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW...AND KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES THERE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 THIS
EVENING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES ON ITS SOUTHEAST TRACK...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXPAND FARTHER ACROSS ALL OF THE STATE.

BY WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE STATE...AND WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SNOW OVER THE STATE...ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK
AND EAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WEST OF THIS LINE.

ALONG WITH THE SNOW...WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGHOUT THIS SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOOK FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY AHEAD OF THE
LOW. TONIGHT WINDS BECOME EASTERLY...THEN NORTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 25
MPH AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. ON WEDNESDAY NORTHEAST
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15 TO 25 MPH AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS WISCONSIN.

AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
50S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30S NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S...AND CONTINUED COLD WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MODELS ARE IN LIMITED AGREEMENT...BUT SEEM TO CAPTURE
THE MAJOR UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH. CHANCE OF PRECIP OCCURS THURSDAY WITH 100KT 250MB
JET STREAK DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN ND WHICH ALL OF THE MODELS ARE
PICKING UP. PROGRESSIVE RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HOLD OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN GFS...SHOWING 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE AT 06Z SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES COLDER.
PATTERN TURNS DRY AND WARMER FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WITH
MODELS/ENSEMBLES BUILDING BROAD RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SLOWLY BRINGING IT TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY BUT WILL REACH THE 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND APPROACH 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE STATE. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KMOT) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE AT OR
APPROACH MVFR CIGS AFT 02Z WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. SOUTHEAST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST AFT 00Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 150853
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS WYOMING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE
ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES
AREA...KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA. MIDDLE AND
HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

TODAY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TOWARDS NEBRASKA...THEN HEADS
EAST ACROSS IOWA TO WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...THE LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD
BE AT THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING...SHOULD BE
CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN SD/NE BORDER BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND OVER WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES...AND HINTING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

TONIGHT THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW...AND KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES THERE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 THIS
EVENING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES ON ITS SOUTHEAST TRACK...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXPAND FARTHER ACROSS ALL OF THE STATE.

BY WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE STATE...AND WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SNOW OVER THE STATE...ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK
AND EAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WEST OF THIS LINE.

ALONG WITH THE SNOW...WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGHOUT THIS SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOOK FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY AHEAD OF THE
LOW. TONIGHT WINDS BECOME EASTERLY...THEN NORTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 25
MPH AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. ON WEDNESDAY NORTHEAST
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15 TO 25 MPH AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS WISCONSIN.

AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
50S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30S NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S...AND CONTINUED COLD WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MODELS ARE IN LIMITED AGREEMENT...BUT SEEM TO CAPTURE
THE MAJOR UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH. CHANCE OF PRECIP OCCURS THURSDAY WITH 100KT 250MB
JET STREAK DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN ND WHICH ALL OF THE MODELS ARE
PICKING UP. PROGRESSIVE RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HOLD OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN GFS...SHOWING 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE AT 06Z SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES COLDER.
PATTERN TURNS DRY AND WARMER FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WITH
MODELS/ENSEMBLES BUILDING BROAD RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SLOWLY BRINGING IT TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY BUT WILL REACH THE 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND APPROACH 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE STATE. LIGHT
SNOW AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KMOT) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE AT OR
APPROACH MVFR CIGS AFT 02Z. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE
AFTERNOON OR AFTER 00Z AT FIRST IN THE KMOT VICINITY - THEN DEVELOP
QUICKLY OVER ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JV










000
FXUS63 KBIS 150539
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH CLOUDS ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING EAST...WITH A QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING BEFORE SUNRISE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO 12 TO 18 MPH...THEN INCREASING QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE TO 20 TO 30 MPH.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH SUNRISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

ISSUED A RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY
AS THE CREEK LEVEL IS NOW ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE (10 FEET) DUE TO
SNOWMELT. IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR FLOOD STAGE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHEN IT WILL BEGIN A SLOW FALL.

OTHERWISE...ONLY EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST STATEWIDE
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REMOVE LATE AFTERNOON SNOW/RAIN SHOWER WORDING
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY AIRMASS AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE NICELY OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
TEMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...LOWERED FORECAST LOWS A FEW DEGREES EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
TONIGHT...AND MAINTAINED LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S WEST.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
BECOME PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY WARM GROUND AND ROAD TEMPS...NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS EARLY FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST...WHICH WAY
BE ENOUGH TO OBSCURE THE LUNAR ECLIPSE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND TEMPS
THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH A LARGE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST FROM THE
LOWER 30S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHERE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT HELPING TO STEER AN EMBEDDED S/WV INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOST PRECIPITATION GENERATED
FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...STRONG
THERMAL UPGLIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
SECTOR OF THE LOW WILL BRING A HEALTHY SWATH OF MOISTURE ACROSS MY
NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES...FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINOT AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS THIS SAME AREA BY ANOTHER
AREA OF PVA MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS FORCING DECREASES.

MODELS STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON QPF. WHILE THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF WATER OVER MY FAR
NORTHEAST (ROLETTE COUNTY) TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE 12Z
GEM (WHICH NAILED SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAYS SNOWFALL) IS WETTER WITH A
SWATH OF THREE TENTHS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST. BASED ON ITS SUPERIOR
PERFORMANCE LAST NIGHT/TODAY...LEANED IN THE GEM`S DIRECTION. CAA
NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING WILL CHANGES MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO SNOW. APPLYING THE 12Z/GFS/NAM RATIOS...I
CALCULATE 1-3 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH
HALF AN INCH AT KISN AND NEAR ONE INCH AT BISMARCK.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...REGARDING THE TRACK OF A CLOSED LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER RATHER POTENT S/WV CROSSING
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THE FIRST HALF OF THIS COMING EASTER
WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO WATCH BOTH THESE WAVES AS EACH HAS SOME
POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE STATE. LIGHT
SNOW AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KMOT) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE AT OR
APPROACH MVFR CIGS AFT 02Z. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE
AFTERNOON OR AFTER 00Z AT FIRST IN THE KMOT VICINITY - THEN DEVELOP
QUICKLY OVER ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 150240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

ISSUED A RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY
AS THE CREEK LEVEL IS NOW ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE (10 FEET) DUE TO
SNOWMELT. IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR FLOOD STAGE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHEN IT WILL BEGIN A SLOW FALL.

OTHERWISE...ONLY EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST STATEWIDE
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REMOVE LATE AFTERNOON SNOW/RAIN SHOWER WORDING
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY AIRMASS AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE NICELY OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
TEMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...LOWERED FORECAST LOWS A FEW DEGREES EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
TONIGHT...AND MAINTAINED LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S WEST.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
BECOME PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY WARM GROUND AND ROAD TEMPS...NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS EARLY FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST...WHICH WAY
BE ENOUGH TO OBSCURE THE LUNAR ECLIPSE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND TEMPS
THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH A LARGE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST FROM THE
LOWER 30S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHERE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT HELPING TO STEER AN EMBEDDED S/WV INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOST PRECIPITATION GENERATED
FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...STRONG
THERMAL UPGLIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
SECTOR OF THE LOW WILL BRING A HEALTHY SWATH OF MOISTURE ACROSS MY
NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES...FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINOT AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS THIS SAME AREA BY ANOTHER
AREA OF PVA MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS FORCING DECREASES.

MODELS STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON QPF. WHILE THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF WATER OVER MY FAR
NORTHEAST (ROLETTE COUNTY) TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE 12Z
GEM (WHICH NAILED SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAYS SNOWFALL) IS WETTER WITH A
SWATH OF THREE TENTHS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST. BASED ON ITS SUPERIOR
PERFORMANCE LAST NIGHT/TODAY...LEANED IN THE GEM`S DIRECTION. CAA
NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING WILL CHANGES MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO SNOW. APPLYING THE 12Z/GFS/NAM RATIOS...I
CALCULATE 1-3 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH
HALF AN INCH AT KISN AND NEAR ONE INCH AT BISMARCK.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...REGARDING THE TRACK OF A CLOSED LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER RATHER POTENT S/WV CROSSING
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THE FIRST HALF OF THIS COMING EASTER
WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO WATCH BOTH THESE WAVES AS EACH HAS SOME
POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE STATE. LIGHT SNOW AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KMOT) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 142351
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
651 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST STATEWIDE
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REMOVE LATE AFTERNOON SNOW/RAIN SHOWER WORDING
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY AIRMASS AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE NICELY OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
TEMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...LOWERED FORECAST LOWS A FEW DEGREES EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
TONIGHT...AND MAINTAINED LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S WEST.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
BECOME PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY WARM GROUND AND ROAD TEMPS...NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS EARLY FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST...WHICH WAY
BE ENOUGH TO OBSCURE THE LUNAR ECLIPSE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND TEMPS
THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH A LARGE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST FROM THE
LOWER 30S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHERE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT HELPING TO STEER AN EMBEDDED S/WV INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOST PRECIPITATION GENERATED
FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...STRONG
THERMAL UPGLIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
SECTOR OF THE LOW WILL BRING A HEALTHY SWATH OF MOISTURE ACROSS MY
NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES...FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINOT AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS THIS SAME AREA BY ANOTHER
AREA OF PVA MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS FORCING DECREASES.

MODELS STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON QPF. WHILE THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF WATER OVER MY FAR
NORTHEAST (ROLETTE COUNTY) TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE 12Z
GEM (WHICH NAILED SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAYS SNOWFALL) IS WETTER WITH A
SWATH OF THREE TENTHS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST. BASED ON ITS SUPERIOR
PERFORMANCE LAST NIGHT/TODAY...LEANED IN THE GEM`S DIRECTION. CAA
NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING WILL CHANGES MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO SNOW. APPLYING THE 12Z/GFS/NAM RATIOS...I
CALCULATE 1-3 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH
HALF AN INCH AT KISN AND NEAR ONE INCH AT BISMARCK.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...REGARDING THE TRACK OF A CLOSED LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER RATHER POTENT S/WV CROSSING
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THE FIRST HALF OF THIS COMING EASTER
WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO WATCH BOTH THESE WAVES AS EACH HAS SOME
POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE STATE. LIGHT SNOW AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KMOT) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 142025
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
BECOME PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY WARM GROUND AND ROAD TEMPS...NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS EARLY FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST...WHICH WAY
BE ENOUGH TO OBSCURE THE LUNAR ECLIPSE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND TEMPS
THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH A LARGE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST FROM THE
LOWER 30S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHERE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT HELPING TO STEER AN EMBEDDED S/WV INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOST PRECIPITATION GENERATED
FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...STRONG
THERMAL UPGLIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
SECTOR OF THE LOW WILL BRING A HEALTHY SWATH OF MOISTURE ACROSS MY
NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES...FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINOT AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS THIS SAME AREA BY ANOTHER
AREA OF PVA MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS FORCING DECREASES.

MODELS STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON QPF. WHILE THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF WATER OVER MY FAR
NORTHEAST (ROLETTE COUNTY) TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE 12Z
GEM (WHICH NAILED SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAYS SNOWFALL) IS WETTER WITH A
SWATH OF THREE TENTHS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST. BASED ON ITS SUPERIOR
PERFORMANCE LAST NIGHT/TODAY...LEANED IN THE GEM`S DIRECTION. CAA
NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING WILL CHANGES MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO SNOW. APPLYING THE 12Z/GFS/NAM RATIOS...I
CALCULATE 1-3 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH
HALF AN INCH AT KISN AND NEAR ONE INCH AT BISMARCK.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...REGARDING THE TRACK OF A CLOSED LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER RATHER POTENT S/WV CROSSING
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THE FIRST HALF OF THIS COMING EASTER
WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO WATCH BOTH THESE WAVES AS EACH HAS SOME
POTENTIAL.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KISN/KBIS/KJMS. EXPECT A
DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...NH











000
FXUS63 KBIS 141711
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1211 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

UPDATE FOR POP AND WEATHER TRENDS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
LINGERING LONGER THAN PREVIOUS EXPECTED...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL BUT THE WESTERN COUNTIES. ROAD
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED WITH THE MELTING SNOW...BUT MOTORISTS CAN
EXPECT BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

UPDATE FOR POP/WEATHER TRENDS. A NARROW SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. MOST ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN
IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...WHILE AN ISOLATED 5 INCH AMOUNT
REPORTED IN PARSHALL-MOUNTRAIL COUNTY BY THE PUBLIC. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATED LOW LEVEL
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND SNOW RATIOS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING AROUND 40:1. THE SNOW BAND IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL OMEGA.
THE SNOW SHOULD MELT OFF QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT ROADS WILL
REMAIN SLICK THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

REFINED THE SNOW AREA SOUTH CENTRAL. UP TO 2 INCHES SNOW IN A
NARROW BAND IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SNOW BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR GLENDIVE TO DICKINSON TO
BISMARCK AND SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL RADARS WERE
INDICATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION (LIGHT SNOW) FROM NEAR TIOGA AND
STANLEY TO GARRISON TOWARDS INTERSTATE 94. GARRISON HAD REPORTED A
HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH THE PAST HOUR...SO NOT ONLY ARE SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

THUS HAVE RAISED CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING. THE CHANCES DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST...AND BY AFTERNOON KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE
TODAY AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION.

TONIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHILE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE
STATE FROM THE WEST. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE FROM ALBERTA TO MONTANA
TO WYOMING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HAVE BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE...AND LIGHT
WINDS EARLY MONDAY EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SNOW EVENT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THE COLD PATTERN WILL BE
MOST PRONOUNCED ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL EXTEND INTO THURSDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE MODERATING TEMPERATURES
BEGIN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE MODELS FOR THE SNOW EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE 00Z NAM COLDER AND WETTER THAN EITHER THE
ECMWF OR GFS. FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AS THE NAM LOOKS A
BIT TOO WET NOW THAT THE H250 JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO MINNESOTA BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THUS MAY NOT IMPACT THE FORCING AS MUCH UP NORTH. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A CONCERN FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...DID NIT MENTION FREEZING RAIN
AT THIS TIME DUE TO ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL SPREAD. BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TUESDAY EVENING AND OVER NIGHT. 1 TO
2 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS REASONABLE FROM NEAR MINOT SOUTH THROUGH
HARVEY AND OAKES.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED
WEDNESDAY...BUT A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES TAKES PLACE
BEGINNING THURSDAY AND BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN. DE EMPHASIZED PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONT THAT WILL INTRODUCE THE MILD WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

PERIODS OF MVFR CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KISN/KBIS/KJMS. EXPECT A
DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 141351
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
851 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

UPDATE FOR POP/WEATHER TRENDS. A NARROW SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. MOST ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN
IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...WHILE AN ISOLATED 5 INCH AMOUNT
REPORTED IN PARSHALL-MOUNTRAIL COUNTY BY THE PUBLIC. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATED LOW LEVEL
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND SNOW RATIOS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING AROUND 40:1. THE SNOW BAND IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL OMEGA.
THE SNOW SHOULD MELT OFF QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT ROADS WILL
REMAIN SLICK THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

REFINED THE SNOW AREA SOUTH CENTRAL. UP TO 2 INCHES SNOW IN A
NARROW BAND IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SNOW BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR GLENDIVE TO DICKINSON TO
BISMARCK AND SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL RADARS WERE
INDICATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION (LIGHT SNOW) FROM NEAR TIOGA AND
STANLEY TO GARRISON TOWARDS INTERSTATE 94. GARRISON HAD REPORTED A
HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH THE PAST HOUR...SO NOT ONLY ARE SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

THUS HAVE RAISED CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING. THE CHANCES DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION TO THE
EAST...AND BY AFTERNOON KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE
TODAY AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION.

TONIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHILE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE
STATE FROM THE WEST. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE FROM ALBERTA TO MONTANA
TO WYOMING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HAVE BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE...AND LIGHT
WINDS EARLY MONDAY EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SNOW EVENT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THE COLD PATTERN WILL BE
MOST PRONOUNCED ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL EXTEND INTO THURSDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE MODERATING TEMPERATURES
BEGIN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE MODELS FOR THE SNOW EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE 00Z NAM COLDER AND WETTER THAN EITHER THE
ECMWF OR GFS. FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AS THE NAM LOOKS A
BIT TOO WET NOW THAT THE H250 JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO MINNESOTA BY WEDNESDAY...AND
THUS MAY NOT IMPACT THE FORCING AS MUCH UP NORTH. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A CONCERN FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...DID NIT MENTION FREEZING RAIN
AT THIS TIME DUE TO ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL SPREAD. BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TUESDAY EVENING AND OVER NIGHT. 1 TO
2 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS REASONABLE FROM NEAR MINOT SOUTH THROUGH
HARVEY AND OAKES.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED
WEDNESDAY...BUT A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES TAKES PLACE
BEGINNING THURSDAY AND BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN. DE EMPHASIZED PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONT THAT WILL INTRODUCE THE MILD WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR AT KISN/KBIS/KDIK/KMOT THROUGH 15Z. VSBYS
REDUCED 1-3 SM IN LIGHT SNOW. CIGS BECOMING MVFR AT KJMS MAINLY 14Z
THROUGH 18Z. VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA








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