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000
FXUS63 KBIS 230204
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
904 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST US CONTINUES TO MIGRATE
NORTHWARD WITH BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS EVENING. WEAK WARM ADVECTION OVER A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA LIKELY THE SOURCE FOR SOME
PERSISTENT WEAK SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THAT OCCASIONALLY
FLARE UP A BIT FROM TIME TO TIME BUT HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO
ESTABLISH THEMSELVES. BISMARCK 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WITH 1.37 PWAT WITH ABR NEARLY THE SAME AT 1.41. BOTH
HAVE GENERALLY TALL AND SKINNY CAPE SUITABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH WEAK OR LITTLE CAP. CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EVOLVE AS LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK IN THE
LOW LEVEL AND ALOFT. BUT EXPECT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE
IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MOVING NORTH. CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT NORTH OF THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA. THIS
CONVECTION WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS FORECAST TRENDS AND LENDS CONFIDENCE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHS TODAY WHERE COOLER THAN FORECAST WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST AND NORTH. THIS MAY BE A TREND FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS UPDATE WILL ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF BISMARCK
AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS DEPICTED ON RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THERE HAS BEEN A GOOD CONSENSUS REGARDING A PRECIPITATION MAX OVER
EASTERN MONTANA. MODELS HAVE DIFFERED IN A SECOND MAX ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM WERE FARTHER EAST WITH A
SECONDARY MAX... WHILE THE NAM HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING A SWATH OF HIGHER QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE SECONDARY MAX LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TWO DAY QPF GREATER THAN 1 INCH ACROSS
A MAJORITY OF THE CWA...AND A MAX OF OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL...ENDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TYPICALLY A BIG RAIN EVENT LIKE THIS IN AUGUST MIGHT NOT CAUSE TOO
MUCH OF A PROBLEM. HOWEVER...WITH OUR CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS...THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN
INCREASES. WITH MANY AREA NEAR SATURATED OR SATURATED...WILL ISSUE
A FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SEE
THE SEPARATE FLOOD DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN MONTANA/NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE LOW LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

THUS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES PLACE...KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY DRY MID-WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WARMING TO THE 70S WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING DETERIORATING AVIATION WEATHER TO
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION
INCLUDE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST
INITIALLY THEN SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
PROGRESSIVELY FALL FROM LOW VFR TO MVFR TO IFR.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

GOING INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...THERE IS NO AREA OF THE CWA WHERE
LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN BE RULED OUT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER
THE PAST WEEK HAVE KEPT SOIL MOISTURE ABNORMALLY HIGH ACROSS THE
CWA. HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OVERWHELM THE CURRENT INFILTRATION
RATES OF THE SOIL AND LEAD TO OVERLAND FLOODING AND CREATE A GREATER
THAN NORMAL RUNOFF. THIS ENHANCED RUNOFF RATES WILL ENCOUNTER
ALREADY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FLOW IN NEARLY EVERY SIGNIFICANT SMALL
STREAM AND RIVER IN THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS NO REASONABLE
EXPECTATION OF MAJOR RIVER FLOODING...AT A MINIMUM THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES...AND MINOR RIVER FLOODING CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-040>046-050.

FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-035-036-047.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 222334
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MOVING NORTH. CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT NORTH OF THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA. THIS
CONVECTION WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS FORECAST TRENDS AND LENDS CONFIDENCE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHS TODAY WHERE COOLER THAN FORECAST WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST AND NORTH. THIS MAY BE A TREND FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS UPDATE WILL ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF BISMARCK
AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS DEPICTED ON RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THERE HAS BEEN A GOOD CONSENSUS REGARDING A PRECIPITATION MAX OVER
EASTERN MONTANA. MODELS HAVE DIFFERED IN A SECOND MAX ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM WERE FARTHER EAST WITH A
SECONDARY MAX... WHILE THE NAM HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING A SWATH OF HIGHER QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE SECONDARY MAX LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TWO DAY QPF GREATER THAN 1 INCH ACROSS
A MAJORITY OF THE CWA...AND A MAX OF OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL...ENDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TYPICALLY A BIG RAIN EVENT LIKE THIS IN AUGUST MIGHT NOT CAUSE TOO
MUCH OF A PROBLEM. HOWEVER...WITH OUR CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS...THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN
INCREASES. WITH MANY AREA NEAR SATURATED OR SATURATED...WILL ISSUE
A FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SEE
THE SEPARATE FLOOD DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN MONTANA/NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE LOW LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

THUS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES PLACE...KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY DRY MID-WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WARMING TO THE 70S WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING
DETERIORATING AVIATION WEATHER TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS IN RAIN
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
WILL PROGRESSIVELY FALL FROM THE LOW VFR TO MVFR TO IFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

GOING INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...THERE IS NO AREA OF THE CWA WHERE
LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN BE RULED OUT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER
THE PAST WEEK HAVE KEPT SOIL MOISTURE ABNORMALLY HIGH ACROSS THE
CWA. HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OVERWHELM THE CURRENT INFILTRATION
RATES OF THE SOIL AND LEAD TO OVERLAND FLOODING AND CREATE A GREATER
THAN NORMAL RUNOFF. THIS ENHANCED RUNOFF RATES WILL ENCOUNTER
ALREADY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FLOW IN NEARLY EVERY SIGNIFICANT SMALL
STREAM AND RIVER IN THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS NO REASONABLE
EXPECTATION OF MAJOR RIVER FLOODING...AT A MINIMUM THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES...AND MINOR RIVER FLOODING CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-040>046-050.

FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-035-036-047.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 222334
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MOVING NORTH. CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT NORTH OF THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA. THIS
CONVECTION WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS FORECAST TRENDS AND LENDS CONFIDENCE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGHS TODAY WHERE COOLER THAN FORECAST WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST AND NORTH. THIS MAY BE A TREND FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS UPDATE WILL ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF BISMARCK
AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS DEPICTED ON RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THERE HAS BEEN A GOOD CONSENSUS REGARDING A PRECIPITATION MAX OVER
EASTERN MONTANA. MODELS HAVE DIFFERED IN A SECOND MAX ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM WERE FARTHER EAST WITH A
SECONDARY MAX... WHILE THE NAM HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING A SWATH OF HIGHER QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE SECONDARY MAX LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TWO DAY QPF GREATER THAN 1 INCH ACROSS
A MAJORITY OF THE CWA...AND A MAX OF OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL...ENDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TYPICALLY A BIG RAIN EVENT LIKE THIS IN AUGUST MIGHT NOT CAUSE TOO
MUCH OF A PROBLEM. HOWEVER...WITH OUR CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS...THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN
INCREASES. WITH MANY AREA NEAR SATURATED OR SATURATED...WILL ISSUE
A FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SEE
THE SEPARATE FLOOD DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN MONTANA/NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE LOW LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

THUS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES PLACE...KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY DRY MID-WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WARMING TO THE 70S WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING
DETERIORATING AVIATION WEATHER TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS IN RAIN
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
WILL PROGRESSIVELY FALL FROM THE LOW VFR TO MVFR TO IFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

GOING INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...THERE IS NO AREA OF THE CWA WHERE
LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN BE RULED OUT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER
THE PAST WEEK HAVE KEPT SOIL MOISTURE ABNORMALLY HIGH ACROSS THE
CWA. HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OVERWHELM THE CURRENT INFILTRATION
RATES OF THE SOIL AND LEAD TO OVERLAND FLOODING AND CREATE A GREATER
THAN NORMAL RUNOFF. THIS ENHANCED RUNOFF RATES WILL ENCOUNTER
ALREADY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FLOW IN NEARLY EVERY SIGNIFICANT SMALL
STREAM AND RIVER IN THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS NO REASONABLE
EXPECTATION OF MAJOR RIVER FLOODING...AT A MINIMUM THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES...AND MINOR RIVER FLOODING CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-040>046-050.

FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-035-036-047.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 222021
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
321 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THERE HAS BEEN A GOOD CONSENSUS REGARDING A PRECIPITATION MAX OVER
EASTERN MONTANA. MODELS HAVE DIFFERED IN A SECOND MAX ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM WERE FARTHER EAST WITH A
SECONDARY MAX... WHILE THE NAM HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING A SWATH OF HIGHER QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE SECONDARY MAX LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TWO DAY QPF GREATER THAN 1 INCH ACROSS
A MAJORITY OF THE CWA...AND A MAX OF OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL...ENDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TYPICALLY A BIG RAIN EVENT LIKE THIS IN AUGUST MIGHT NOT CAUSE TOO
MUCH OF A PROBLEM. HOWEVER...WITH OUR CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS...THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN
INCREASES. WITH MANY AREA NEAR SATURATED OR SATURATED...WILL ISSUE
A FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SEE
THE SEPARATE FLOOD DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.



.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN MONTANA/NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE LOW LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

THUS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES PLACE...KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY DRY MID-WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WARMING TO THE 70S WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN DETERIORATE BY 06Z TO MVFR/IFR IN CIGS AND VSBYS. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AND VCSH OR VCTS IN TAFS.
LATER THIS EVENING EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWEST AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. MOST OF SATURDAY AFTER 12Z SHOULD BE MVFR WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

GOING INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...THERE IS NO AREA OF THE CWA WHERE
LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN BE RULED OUT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER
THE PAST WEEK HAVE KEPT SOIL MOISTURE ABNORMALLY HIGH ACROSS THE
CWA. HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OVERWHELM THE CURRENT INFILTRATION
RATES OF THE SOIL AND LEAD TO OVERLAND FLOODING AND CREATE A GREATER
THAN NORMAL RUNOFF. THIS ENHANCED RUNOFF RATES WILL ENCOUNTER
ALREADY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FLOW IN NEARLY EVERY SIGNIFICANT SMALL
STREAM AND RIVER IN THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS NO REASONABLE
EXPECTATION OF MAJOR RIVER FLOODING...AT A MINIMUM THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES...AND MINOR RIVER FLOODING CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-040>046-050.

FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-035-036-047.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JV
HYDROLOGY...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 222021
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
321 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THERE HAS BEEN A GOOD CONSENSUS REGARDING A PRECIPITATION MAX OVER
EASTERN MONTANA. MODELS HAVE DIFFERED IN A SECOND MAX ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM WERE FARTHER EAST WITH A
SECONDARY MAX... WHILE THE NAM HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING A SWATH OF HIGHER QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE SECONDARY MAX LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TWO DAY QPF GREATER THAN 1 INCH ACROSS
A MAJORITY OF THE CWA...AND A MAX OF OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL...ENDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TYPICALLY A BIG RAIN EVENT LIKE THIS IN AUGUST MIGHT NOT CAUSE TOO
MUCH OF A PROBLEM. HOWEVER...WITH OUR CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS...THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN
INCREASES. WITH MANY AREA NEAR SATURATED OR SATURATED...WILL ISSUE
A FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SEE
THE SEPARATE FLOOD DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.



.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN MONTANA/NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE LOW LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

THUS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES PLACE...KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY DRY MID-WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WARMING TO THE 70S WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN DETERIORATE BY 06Z TO MVFR/IFR IN CIGS AND VSBYS. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AND VCSH OR VCTS IN TAFS.
LATER THIS EVENING EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWEST AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. MOST OF SATURDAY AFTER 12Z SHOULD BE MVFR WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

GOING INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...THERE IS NO AREA OF THE CWA WHERE
LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN BE RULED OUT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER
THE PAST WEEK HAVE KEPT SOIL MOISTURE ABNORMALLY HIGH ACROSS THE
CWA. HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OVERWHELM THE CURRENT INFILTRATION
RATES OF THE SOIL AND LEAD TO OVERLAND FLOODING AND CREATE A GREATER
THAN NORMAL RUNOFF. THIS ENHANCED RUNOFF RATES WILL ENCOUNTER
ALREADY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FLOW IN NEARLY EVERY SIGNIFICANT SMALL
STREAM AND RIVER IN THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS NO REASONABLE
EXPECTATION OF MAJOR RIVER FLOODING...AT A MINIMUM THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES...AND MINOR RIVER FLOODING CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-040>046-050.

FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-035-036-047.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JV
HYDROLOGY...TWH









000
FXUS63 KBIS 221809
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
109 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT LIMITED SKINNY CAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHOWERS EARLIER OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN GENERAL...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO LIMITED THUNDER CHANCES TO ISOLATED. BUMPED
UP SKY COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE THIS MORNING...THEN WILL DISSIPATE BY THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
UPDATES REQUIRED. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THE SHORT TERM IS FOG...AND HEAVY RAINFALL
RETURNING TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND DISSIPATE LATER
THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA RECEIVED
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...ACCORDING TO RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITS THE REGION WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
RESPITE FROM THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THICK CLOUD COVER
AND FOG WILL REMAIN. WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...FOG MAY
BECOME WIDESPREAD BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY DUE TO
FOG AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REBOUND INTO
THE LOW 70S TODAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A
POTENT SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE (00 UTC GFS/NAM/ECMWF) THE
HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS THE TIME PERIOD OF MOST CONCERN WITH
RESPECT TO FLOODING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A WET AND COOL WEEKEND
FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A DRYING/WARMING TREND IS
THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGHEST POPS AND
QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PROXIMATE TO
THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES NORTH ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE OVERALL HIGHEST TOTALS TO BE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH 1-2.5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE
HIT-AND-MISS CHARACTER OF WARM-SEASON THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME AREAS RECEIVING HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHILE OTHER
LOCALES WILL LIKELY RECEIVE LESS THAN THE ANTICIPATED AREA-WIDE
AVERAGE. OVERLAND FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IN THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO
CANADA WITH SOME DRY SLOTTING FORECAST OVER NORTH DAKOTA. QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES TO TRANSITION INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN DETERIORATE BY 06Z TO MVFR/IFR IN CIGS AND VSBYS. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AND VCSH OR VCTS IN TAFS.
LATER THIS EVENING EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWEST AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. MOST OF SATURDAY AFTER 12Z SHOULD BE MVFR WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV









000
FXUS63 KBIS 221809
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
109 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT LIMITED SKINNY CAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHOWERS EARLIER OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN GENERAL...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO LIMITED THUNDER CHANCES TO ISOLATED. BUMPED
UP SKY COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE THIS MORNING...THEN WILL DISSIPATE BY THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
UPDATES REQUIRED. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THE SHORT TERM IS FOG...AND HEAVY RAINFALL
RETURNING TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND DISSIPATE LATER
THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA RECEIVED
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...ACCORDING TO RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITS THE REGION WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
RESPITE FROM THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THICK CLOUD COVER
AND FOG WILL REMAIN. WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...FOG MAY
BECOME WIDESPREAD BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY DUE TO
FOG AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REBOUND INTO
THE LOW 70S TODAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A
POTENT SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE (00 UTC GFS/NAM/ECMWF) THE
HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS THE TIME PERIOD OF MOST CONCERN WITH
RESPECT TO FLOODING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A WET AND COOL WEEKEND
FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A DRYING/WARMING TREND IS
THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGHEST POPS AND
QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PROXIMATE TO
THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES NORTH ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE OVERALL HIGHEST TOTALS TO BE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH 1-2.5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE
HIT-AND-MISS CHARACTER OF WARM-SEASON THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME AREAS RECEIVING HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHILE OTHER
LOCALES WILL LIKELY RECEIVE LESS THAN THE ANTICIPATED AREA-WIDE
AVERAGE. OVERLAND FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IN THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO
CANADA WITH SOME DRY SLOTTING FORECAST OVER NORTH DAKOTA. QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES TO TRANSITION INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN DETERIORATE BY 06Z TO MVFR/IFR IN CIGS AND VSBYS. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AND VCSH OR VCTS IN TAFS.
LATER THIS EVENING EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWEST AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. MOST OF SATURDAY AFTER 12Z SHOULD BE MVFR WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 221509
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1009 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHOWERS EARLIER OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN GENERAL...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO LIMITED THUNDER CHANCES TO ISOLATED. BUMPED
UP SKY COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE THIS MORNING...THEN WILL DISSIPATE BY THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
UPDATES REQUIRED. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THE SHORT TERM IS FOG...AND HEAVY RAINFALL
RETURNING TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND DISSIPATE LATER
THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA RECEIVED
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...ACCORDING TO RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITS THE REGION WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
RESPITE FROM THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THICK CLOUD COVER
AND FOG WILL REMAIN. WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...FOG MAY
BECOME WIDESPREAD BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY DUE TO
FOG AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REBOUND INTO
THE LOW 70S TODAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A
POTENT SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE (00 UTC GFS/NAM/ECMWF) THE
HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS THE TIME PERIOD OF MOST CONCERN WITH
RESPECT TO FLOODING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A WET AND COOL WEEKEND
FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A DRYING/WARMING TREND IS
THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGHEST POPS AND
QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PROXIMATE TO
THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES NORTH ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE OVERALL HIGHEST TOTALS TO BE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH 1-2.5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE
HIT-AND-MISS CHARACTER OF WARM-SEASON THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME AREAS RECEIVING HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHILE OTHER
LOCALES WILL LIKELY RECEIVE LESS THAN THE ANTICIPATED AREA-WIDE
AVERAGE. OVERLAND FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IN THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO
CANADA WITH SOME DRY SLOTTING FORECAST OVER NORTH DAKOTA. QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES TO TRANSITION INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 221509
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1009 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHOWERS EARLIER OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN GENERAL...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO LIMITED THUNDER CHANCES TO ISOLATED. BUMPED
UP SKY COVER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE THIS MORNING...THEN WILL DISSIPATE BY THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
UPDATES REQUIRED. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THE SHORT TERM IS FOG...AND HEAVY RAINFALL
RETURNING TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND DISSIPATE LATER
THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA RECEIVED
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...ACCORDING TO RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITS THE REGION WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
RESPITE FROM THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THICK CLOUD COVER
AND FOG WILL REMAIN. WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...FOG MAY
BECOME WIDESPREAD BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY DUE TO
FOG AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REBOUND INTO
THE LOW 70S TODAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A
POTENT SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE (00 UTC GFS/NAM/ECMWF) THE
HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS THE TIME PERIOD OF MOST CONCERN WITH
RESPECT TO FLOODING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A WET AND COOL WEEKEND
FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A DRYING/WARMING TREND IS
THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGHEST POPS AND
QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PROXIMATE TO
THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES NORTH ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE OVERALL HIGHEST TOTALS TO BE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH 1-2.5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE
HIT-AND-MISS CHARACTER OF WARM-SEASON THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME AREAS RECEIVING HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHILE OTHER
LOCALES WILL LIKELY RECEIVE LESS THAN THE ANTICIPATED AREA-WIDE
AVERAGE. OVERLAND FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IN THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO
CANADA WITH SOME DRY SLOTTING FORECAST OVER NORTH DAKOTA. QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES TO TRANSITION INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 221128
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
628 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE THIS MORNING...THEN WILL DISSIPATE BY THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
UPDATES REQUIRED. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THE SHORT TERM IS FOG...AND HEAVY RAINFALL
RETURNING TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND DISSIPATE LATER
THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA RECEIVED
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...ACCORDING TO RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITS THE REGION WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
RESPITE FROM THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THICK CLOUD COVER
AND FOG WILL REMAIN. WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...FOG MAY
BECOME WIDESPREAD BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY DUE TO
FOG AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REBOUND INTO
THE LOW 70S TODAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A
POTENT SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE (00 UTC GFS/NAM/ECMWF) THE
HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS THE TIME PERIOD OF MOST CONCERN WITH
RESPECT TO FLOODING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A WET AND COOL WEEKEND
FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A DRYING/WARMING TREND IS
THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGHEST POPS AND
QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PROXIMATE TO
THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES NORTH ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE OVERALL HIGHEST TOTALS TO BE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH 1-2.5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE
HIT-AND-MISS CHARACTER OF WARM-SEASON THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME AREAS RECEIVING HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHILE OTHER
LOCALES WILL LIKELY RECEIVE LESS THAN THE ANTICIPATED AREA-WIDE
AVERAGE. OVERLAND FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IN THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO
CANADA WITH SOME DRY SLOTTING FORECAST OVER NORTH DAKOTA. QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES TO TRANSITION INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AJ






000
FXUS63 KBIS 220843
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
343 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THE SHORT TERM IS FOG...AND HEAVY RAINFALL
RETURNING TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND DISSIPATE LATER
THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA RECEIVED
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...ACCORDING TO RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITS THE REGION WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
RESPITE FROM THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THICK CLOUD COVER
AND FOG WILL REMAIN. WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...FOG MAY
BECOME WIDESPREAD BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY DUE TO
FOG AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REBOUND INTO
THE LOW 70S TODAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A
POTENT SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE (00 UTC GFS/NAM/ECMWF) THE
HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS THE TIME PERIOD OF MOST CONCERN WITH
RESPECT TO FLOODING.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A WET AND COOL WEEKEND
FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A DRYING/WARMING TREND IS
THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGHEST POPS AND
QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PROXIMATE TO
THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES NORTH ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE OVERALL HIGHEST TOTALS TO BE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH 1-2.5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE
HIT-AND-MISS CHARACTER OF WARM-SEASON THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME AREAS RECEIVING HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHILE OTHER
LOCALES WILL LIKELY RECEIVE LESS THAN THE ANTICIPATED AREA-WIDE
AVERAGE. OVERLAND FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IN THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO
CANADA WITH SOME DRY SLOTTING FORECAST OVER NORTH DAKOTA. QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES TO TRANSITION INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND
WILL ENTER THE KBIS/KISN TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. THE
MAIN THREATS TO AVIATION ARE THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF FOG. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY EARLY MORNING
ACROSS THE WEST IMPACTING KISN-KDIK-KMOT-KBIS. VFR EXPECTED AT
KJMS UNTIL SOME FOG SETS IN WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AJ





000
FXUS63 KBIS 220843
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
343 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THE SHORT TERM IS FOG...AND HEAVY RAINFALL
RETURNING TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND DISSIPATE LATER
THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA RECEIVED
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...ACCORDING TO RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITS THE REGION WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
RESPITE FROM THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THICK CLOUD COVER
AND FOG WILL REMAIN. WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...FOG MAY
BECOME WIDESPREAD BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY DUE TO
FOG AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REBOUND INTO
THE LOW 70S TODAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A
POTENT SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE (00 UTC GFS/NAM/ECMWF) THE
HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS THE TIME PERIOD OF MOST CONCERN WITH
RESPECT TO FLOODING.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A WET AND COOL WEEKEND
FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A DRYING/WARMING TREND IS
THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGHEST POPS AND
QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PROXIMATE TO
THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES NORTH ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE OVERALL HIGHEST TOTALS TO BE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH 1-2.5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE
HIT-AND-MISS CHARACTER OF WARM-SEASON THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME AREAS RECEIVING HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHILE OTHER
LOCALES WILL LIKELY RECEIVE LESS THAN THE ANTICIPATED AREA-WIDE
AVERAGE. OVERLAND FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IN THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO
CANADA WITH SOME DRY SLOTTING FORECAST OVER NORTH DAKOTA. QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES TO TRANSITION INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND
WILL ENTER THE KBIS/KISN TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. THE
MAIN THREATS TO AVIATION ARE THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF FOG. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY EARLY MORNING
ACROSS THE WEST IMPACTING KISN-KDIK-KMOT-KBIS. VFR EXPECTED AT
KJMS UNTIL SOME FOG SETS IN WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AJ






000
FXUS63 KBIS 220517
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1217 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...QUICK UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS ADAMS
COUNTY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. THEY HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING AN INCH OF RAIN IN
30 MIN. OR LESS. AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXTENDS
NORTH THROUGH STARK AND SOUTHERN DUNN COUNTIES. THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES AND EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS ACCORDING TO
LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SO FAR COOP REPORTS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
BOWMAN COUNTY STORMS THIS EVENING. SEVERAL REPORTS IN EXCESS ON ONE
INCH. SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FRO HEAVY RAINFALL. TRENDS LOOK
GOOD SO FAR FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES SO WILL ONLY MAKE COSMETIC
TWEAKS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SWINGING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA AT THIS TIME. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 9-10 PM. AHEAD OF THIS AREA SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER WEST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BUT LOOKING PRETTY WEAK AT THIS TIME. WILL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO WAIT UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO
WESTERN ND LATE THIS EVENING TO SEE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE NEXT
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH CONVECTION FIRING UP NEAR THIS FEATURE
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...EXTENDING INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AHEAD OF A S/WV IMPULSE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE WYOMING ROCKIES. A STRONGER STORM FOR ANY OF THESE AREAS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE NOT EXPECTED.

MAIN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AFTER
00Z WHEN MODELS PROJECT A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AND AS A SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS NEAR THE
ND/SD BORDER. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED AS WELL BY AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK. COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE...SHOULD SEE A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST INTO
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY DAYTIME...SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY AND LIKELY LOW TO MID CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN LATER IN THE
DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN
MOVING EAST AND A SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

AT THIS TIME...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE OVERALL HEAVIER TOTALS
TO BE HIGHER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH 1-2.5 INCHES AVERAGED OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE HIT-AND-MISS CHARACTER OF WARM-SEASON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME AREAS RECEIVING HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHILE
OTHER LOCALES WILL LIKELY RECEIVE LESS THAN THE ANTICIPATED
AREA-WIDE AVERAGE. OVERLAND FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IN THOSE LOCALES
WHICH RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CANADA...CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA - BUT THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE OVER. BY WEDNESDAY ZONAL
WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WEATHER OR ONLY SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND
WILL ENTER THE KBIS/KISN TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. THE MAIN
THREATS TO AVIATION ARE THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF FOG. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE
WEST IMPACTING KISN-KDIK-KMOT-KBIS. VFR EXPECTED AT KJMS UNTIL
SOME FOG SETS IN WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ABOUT A THIRD OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED MORE THAN THREE TIMES
THEIR NORMAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. SOIL
MOISTURE IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL
CAUSING EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND OVERLAND/SMALL STREAM FLOODING GROWS
WITH EACH PASSING THUNDERSTORM.

WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ESF TO HIGHLIGHT
FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. PRECIPITATION FOR
TONIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WE WILL SEE DURING
THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THE PLACEMENT OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TONIGHT...COUPLED WITH FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMING
MORE IN AGREEMENT...WILL HOPEFULLY SHED A BETTER LIGHT ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...NH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 220517
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1217 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...QUICK UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS ADAMS
COUNTY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. THEY HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING AN INCH OF RAIN IN
30 MIN. OR LESS. AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXTENDS
NORTH THROUGH STARK AND SOUTHERN DUNN COUNTIES. THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES AND EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS ACCORDING TO
LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SO FAR COOP REPORTS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
BOWMAN COUNTY STORMS THIS EVENING. SEVERAL REPORTS IN EXCESS ON ONE
INCH. SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FRO HEAVY RAINFALL. TRENDS LOOK
GOOD SO FAR FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES SO WILL ONLY MAKE COSMETIC
TWEAKS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SWINGING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA AT THIS TIME. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 9-10 PM. AHEAD OF THIS AREA SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER WEST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BUT LOOKING PRETTY WEAK AT THIS TIME. WILL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO WAIT UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO
WESTERN ND LATE THIS EVENING TO SEE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE NEXT
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH CONVECTION FIRING UP NEAR THIS FEATURE
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...EXTENDING INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AHEAD OF A S/WV IMPULSE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE WYOMING ROCKIES. A STRONGER STORM FOR ANY OF THESE AREAS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE NOT EXPECTED.

MAIN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AFTER
00Z WHEN MODELS PROJECT A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AND AS A SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS NEAR THE
ND/SD BORDER. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED AS WELL BY AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK. COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE...SHOULD SEE A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST INTO
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY DAYTIME...SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY AND LIKELY LOW TO MID CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN LATER IN THE
DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN
MOVING EAST AND A SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

AT THIS TIME...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE OVERALL HEAVIER TOTALS
TO BE HIGHER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH 1-2.5 INCHES AVERAGED OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE HIT-AND-MISS CHARACTER OF WARM-SEASON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME AREAS RECEIVING HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHILE
OTHER LOCALES WILL LIKELY RECEIVE LESS THAN THE ANTICIPATED
AREA-WIDE AVERAGE. OVERLAND FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IN THOSE LOCALES
WHICH RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CANADA...CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA - BUT THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE OVER. BY WEDNESDAY ZONAL
WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WEATHER OR ONLY SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND
WILL ENTER THE KBIS/KISN TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. THE MAIN
THREATS TO AVIATION ARE THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF FOG. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE
WEST IMPACTING KISN-KDIK-KMOT-KBIS. VFR EXPECTED AT KJMS UNTIL
SOME FOG SETS IN WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ABOUT A THIRD OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED MORE THAN THREE TIMES
THEIR NORMAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. SOIL
MOISTURE IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL
CAUSING EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND OVERLAND/SMALL STREAM FLOODING GROWS
WITH EACH PASSING THUNDERSTORM.

WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ESF TO HIGHLIGHT
FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. PRECIPITATION FOR
TONIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WE WILL SEE DURING
THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THE PLACEMENT OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TONIGHT...COUPLED WITH FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMING
MORE IN AGREEMENT...WILL HOPEFULLY SHED A BETTER LIGHT ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...NH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 220442
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1142 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...QUICK UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS ADAMS
COUNTY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. THEY HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING AN INCH OF RAIN IN
30 MIN. OR LESS. AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXTENDS
NORTH THROUGH STARK AND SOUTHERN DUNN COUNTIES. THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES AND EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS ACCORDING TO
LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SO FAR COOP REPORTS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
BOWMAN COUNTY STORMS THIS EVENING. SEVERAL REPORTS IN EXCESS ON ONE
INCH. SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FRO HEAVY RAINFALL. TRENDS LOOK
GOOD SO FAR FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES SO WILL ONLY MAKE COSMETIC
TWEAKS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SWINGING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA AT THIS TIME. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 9-10 PM. AHEAD OF THIS AREA SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER WEST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BUT LOOKING PRETTY WEAK AT THIS TIME. WILL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO WAIT UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO
WESTERN ND LATE THIS EVENING TO SEE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE NEXT
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH CONVECTION FIRING UP NEAR THIS FEATURE
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...EXTENDING INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AHEAD OF A S/WV IMPULSE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE WYOMING ROCKIES. A STRONGER STORM FOR ANY OF THESE AREAS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE NOT EXPECTED.

MAIN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AFTER
00Z WHEN MODELS PROJECT A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AND AS A SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS NEAR THE
ND/SD BORDER. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED AS WELL BY AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK. COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE...SHOULD SEE A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST INTO
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY DAYTIME...SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY AND LIKELY LOW TO MID CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN LATER IN THE
DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN
MOVING EAST AND A SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

AT THIS TIME...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE OVERALL HEAVIER TOTALS
TO BE HIGHER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH 1-2.5 INCHES AVERAGED OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE HIT-AND-MISS CHARACTER OF WARM-SEASON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME AREAS RECEIVING HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHILE
OTHER LOCALES WILL LIKELY RECEIVE LESS THAN THE ANTICIPATED
AREA-WIDE AVERAGE. OVERLAND FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IN THOSE LOCALES
WHICH RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CANADA...CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA - BUT THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE OVER. BY WEDNESDAY ZONAL
WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WEATHER OR ONLY SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BECOME
PREDOMINATE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE MAIN THREATS TO AVIATION ARE THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF FOG. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY EARLY MORNING
ACROSS THE WEST IMPACTING KISN-KDIK-KMOT-KBIS. VFR EXPECTED AT
KJMS UNTIL SOME FOG SETS IN WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ABOUT A THIRD OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED MORE THAN THREE TIMES
THEIR NORMAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. SOIL
MOISTURE IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL
CAUSING EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND OVERLAND/SMALL STREAM FLOODING GROWS
WITH EACH PASSING THUNDERSTORM.

WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ESF TO HIGHLIGHT
FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. PRECIPITATION FOR
TONIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WE WILL SEE DURING
THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THE PLACEMENT OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TONIGHT...COUPLED WITH FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMING
MORE IN AGREEMENT...WILL HOPEFULLY SHED A BETTER LIGHT ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...NH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 220442
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1142 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...QUICK UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS ADAMS
COUNTY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. THEY HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING AN INCH OF RAIN IN
30 MIN. OR LESS. AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXTENDS
NORTH THROUGH STARK AND SOUTHERN DUNN COUNTIES. THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES AND EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS ACCORDING TO
LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SO FAR COOP REPORTS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
BOWMAN COUNTY STORMS THIS EVENING. SEVERAL REPORTS IN EXCESS ON ONE
INCH. SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FRO HEAVY RAINFALL. TRENDS LOOK
GOOD SO FAR FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES SO WILL ONLY MAKE COSMETIC
TWEAKS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SWINGING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA AT THIS TIME. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 9-10 PM. AHEAD OF THIS AREA SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER WEST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BUT LOOKING PRETTY WEAK AT THIS TIME. WILL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO WAIT UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO
WESTERN ND LATE THIS EVENING TO SEE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE NEXT
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH CONVECTION FIRING UP NEAR THIS FEATURE
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...EXTENDING INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AHEAD OF A S/WV IMPULSE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE WYOMING ROCKIES. A STRONGER STORM FOR ANY OF THESE AREAS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE NOT EXPECTED.

MAIN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AFTER
00Z WHEN MODELS PROJECT A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AND AS A SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS NEAR THE
ND/SD BORDER. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED AS WELL BY AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK. COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE...SHOULD SEE A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST INTO
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY DAYTIME...SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY AND LIKELY LOW TO MID CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN LATER IN THE
DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN
MOVING EAST AND A SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

AT THIS TIME...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE OVERALL HEAVIER TOTALS
TO BE HIGHER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH 1-2.5 INCHES AVERAGED OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE HIT-AND-MISS CHARACTER OF WARM-SEASON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME AREAS RECEIVING HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHILE
OTHER LOCALES WILL LIKELY RECEIVE LESS THAN THE ANTICIPATED
AREA-WIDE AVERAGE. OVERLAND FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IN THOSE LOCALES
WHICH RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CANADA...CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA - BUT THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE OVER. BY WEDNESDAY ZONAL
WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WEATHER OR ONLY SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BECOME
PREDOMINATE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE MAIN THREATS TO AVIATION ARE THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF FOG. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY EARLY MORNING
ACROSS THE WEST IMPACTING KISN-KDIK-KMOT-KBIS. VFR EXPECTED AT
KJMS UNTIL SOME FOG SETS IN WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ABOUT A THIRD OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED MORE THAN THREE TIMES
THEIR NORMAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. SOIL
MOISTURE IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL
CAUSING EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND OVERLAND/SMALL STREAM FLOODING GROWS
WITH EACH PASSING THUNDERSTORM.

WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ESF TO HIGHLIGHT
FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. PRECIPITATION FOR
TONIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WE WILL SEE DURING
THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THE PLACEMENT OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TONIGHT...COUPLED WITH FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMING
MORE IN AGREEMENT...WILL HOPEFULLY SHED A BETTER LIGHT ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...NH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 220253
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SO FAR COOP REPORTS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
BOWMAN COUNTY STORMS THIS EVENING. SEVERAL REPORTS IN EXCESS ON ONE
INCH. SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FRO HEAVY RAINFALL. TRENDS LOOK
GOOD SO FAR FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES SO WILL ONLY MAKE COSMETIC
TWEAKS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SWINGING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA AT THIS TIME. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 9-10 PM. AHEAD OF THIS AREA SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER WEST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BUT LOOKING PRETTY WEAK AT THIS TIME. WILL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO WAIT UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO
WESTERN ND LATE THIS EVENING TO SEE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE NEXT
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH CONVECTION FIRING UP NEAR THIS FEATURE
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...EXTENDING INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AHEAD OF A S/WV IMPULSE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE WYOMING ROCKIES. A STRONGER STORM FOR ANY OF THESE AREAS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE NOT EXPECTED.

MAIN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AFTER
00Z WHEN MODELS PROJECT A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AND AS A SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS NEAR THE
ND/SD BORDER. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED AS WELL BY AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK. COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE...SHOULD SEE A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST INTO
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY DAYTIME...SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY AND LIKELY LOW TO MID CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN LATER IN THE
DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN
MOVING EAST AND A SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

AT THIS TIME...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE OVERALL HEAVIER TOTALS
TO BE HIGHER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH 1-2.5 INCHES AVERAGED OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE HIT-AND-MISS CHARACTER OF WARM-SEASON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME AREAS RECEIVING HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHILE
OTHER LOCALES WILL LIKELY RECEIVE LESS THAN THE ANTICIPATED
AREA-WIDE AVERAGE. OVERLAND FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IN THOSE LOCALES
WHICH RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CANADA...CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA - BUT THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE OVER. BY WEDNESDAY ZONAL
WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WEATHER OR ONLY SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BECOME
PREDOMINATE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE MAIN THREATS TO AVIATION ARE THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF FOG. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY EARLY MORNING
ACROSS THE WEST IMPACTING KISN-KDIK-KMOT-KBIS. VFR EXPECTED AT
KJMS UNTIL SOME FOG SETS IN WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ABOUT A THIRD OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED MORE THAN THREE TIMES
THEIR NORMAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. SOIL
MOISTURE IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL
CAUSING EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND OVERLAND/SMALL STREAM FLOODING GROWS
WITH EACH PASSING THUNDERSTORM.

WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ESF TO HIGHLIGHT
FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. PRECIPITATION FOR
TONIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WE WILL SEE DURING
THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THE PLACEMENT OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TONIGHT...COUPLED WITH FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMING
MORE IN AGREEMENT...WILL HOPEFULLY SHED A BETTER LIGHT ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...NH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 220253
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SO FAR COOP REPORTS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
BOWMAN COUNTY STORMS THIS EVENING. SEVERAL REPORTS IN EXCESS ON ONE
INCH. SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FRO HEAVY RAINFALL. TRENDS LOOK
GOOD SO FAR FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES SO WILL ONLY MAKE COSMETIC
TWEAKS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SWINGING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA AT THIS TIME. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 9-10 PM. AHEAD OF THIS AREA SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER WEST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BUT LOOKING PRETTY WEAK AT THIS TIME. WILL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO WAIT UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO
WESTERN ND LATE THIS EVENING TO SEE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE NEXT
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH CONVECTION FIRING UP NEAR THIS FEATURE
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...EXTENDING INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AHEAD OF A S/WV IMPULSE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE WYOMING ROCKIES. A STRONGER STORM FOR ANY OF THESE AREAS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE NOT EXPECTED.

MAIN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AFTER
00Z WHEN MODELS PROJECT A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AND AS A SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS NEAR THE
ND/SD BORDER. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED AS WELL BY AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK. COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE...SHOULD SEE A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST INTO
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY DAYTIME...SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY AND LIKELY LOW TO MID CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN LATER IN THE
DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN
MOVING EAST AND A SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

AT THIS TIME...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE OVERALL HEAVIER TOTALS
TO BE HIGHER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH 1-2.5 INCHES AVERAGED OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE HIT-AND-MISS CHARACTER OF WARM-SEASON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME AREAS RECEIVING HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHILE
OTHER LOCALES WILL LIKELY RECEIVE LESS THAN THE ANTICIPATED
AREA-WIDE AVERAGE. OVERLAND FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IN THOSE LOCALES
WHICH RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CANADA...CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA - BUT THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE OVER. BY WEDNESDAY ZONAL
WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WEATHER OR ONLY SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BECOME
PREDOMINATE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE MAIN THREATS TO AVIATION ARE THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF FOG. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY EARLY MORNING
ACROSS THE WEST IMPACTING KISN-KDIK-KMOT-KBIS. VFR EXPECTED AT
KJMS UNTIL SOME FOG SETS IN WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ABOUT A THIRD OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED MORE THAN THREE TIMES
THEIR NORMAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. SOIL
MOISTURE IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL
CAUSING EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND OVERLAND/SMALL STREAM FLOODING GROWS
WITH EACH PASSING THUNDERSTORM.

WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ESF TO HIGHLIGHT
FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. PRECIPITATION FOR
TONIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WE WILL SEE DURING
THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THE PLACEMENT OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TONIGHT...COUPLED WITH FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMING
MORE IN AGREEMENT...WILL HOPEFULLY SHED A BETTER LIGHT ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...NH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 220006
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
706 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SWINGING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA AT THIS TIME. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 9-10 PM. AHEAD OF THIS AREA SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER WEST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BUT LOOKING PRETTY WEAK AT THIS TIME. WILL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO WAIT UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO
WESTERN ND LATE THIS EVENING TO SEE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE NEXT
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH CONVECTION FIRING UP NEAR THIS FEATURE
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...EXTENDING INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AHEAD OF A S/WV IMPULSE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE WYOMING ROCKIES. A STRONGER STORM FOR ANY OF THESE AREAS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE NOT EXPECTED.

MAIN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AFTER
00Z WHEN MODELS PROJECT A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AND AS A SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS NEAR THE
ND/SD BORDER. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED AS WELL BY AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK. COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE...SHOULD SEE A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST INTO
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY DAYTIME...SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY AND LIKELY LOW TO MID CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN LATER IN THE
DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN
MOVING EAST AND A SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

AT THIS TIME...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE OVERALL HEAVIER TOTALS
TO BE HIGHER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH 1-2.5 INCHES AVERAGED OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE HIT-AND-MISS CHARACTER OF WARM-SEASON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME AREAS RECEIVING HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHILE
OTHER LOCALES WILL LIKELY RECEIVE LESS THAN THE ANTICIPATED
AREA-WIDE AVERAGE. OVERLAND FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IN THOSE LOCALES
WHICH RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CANADA...CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA - BUT THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE OVER. BY WEDNESDAY ZONAL
WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WEATHER OR ONLY SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BECOME
PREDOMINATE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
MAIN THREATS TO AVIATION ARE THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF FOG. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR AFTER LATE THIS
EVENING OR EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST IMPACTING KISN-KDIK-
KMOT-KBIS. VFR EXPECTED AT KJMS UNTIL SOME FOG SETS IN WITH AT
LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ABOUT A THIRD OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED MORE THAN THREE TIMES
THEIR NORMAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. SOIL
MOISTURE IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL
CAUSING EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND OVERLAND/SMALL STREAM FLOODING GROWS
WITH EACH PASSING THUNDERSTORM.

WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ESF TO HIGHLIGHT
FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. PRECIPITATION FOR
TONIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WE WILL SEE DURING
THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THE PLACEMENT OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TONIGHT...COUPLED WITH FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMING
MORE IN AGREEMENT...WILL HOPEFULLY SHED A BETTER LIGHT ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...NH










000
FXUS63 KBIS 220006
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
706 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SWINGING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA AT THIS TIME. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 9-10 PM. AHEAD OF THIS AREA SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER WEST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BUT LOOKING PRETTY WEAK AT THIS TIME. WILL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO WAIT UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO
WESTERN ND LATE THIS EVENING TO SEE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE NEXT
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH CONVECTION FIRING UP NEAR THIS FEATURE
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...EXTENDING INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AHEAD OF A S/WV IMPULSE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE WYOMING ROCKIES. A STRONGER STORM FOR ANY OF THESE AREAS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE NOT EXPECTED.

MAIN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AFTER
00Z WHEN MODELS PROJECT A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AND AS A SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS NEAR THE
ND/SD BORDER. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED AS WELL BY AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK. COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE...SHOULD SEE A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST INTO
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY DAYTIME...SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY AND LIKELY LOW TO MID CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN LATER IN THE
DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN
MOVING EAST AND A SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

AT THIS TIME...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE OVERALL HEAVIER TOTALS
TO BE HIGHER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH 1-2.5 INCHES AVERAGED OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE HIT-AND-MISS CHARACTER OF WARM-SEASON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME AREAS RECEIVING HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHILE
OTHER LOCALES WILL LIKELY RECEIVE LESS THAN THE ANTICIPATED
AREA-WIDE AVERAGE. OVERLAND FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IN THOSE LOCALES
WHICH RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CANADA...CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA - BUT THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE OVER. BY WEDNESDAY ZONAL
WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WEATHER OR ONLY SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BECOME
PREDOMINATE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
MAIN THREATS TO AVIATION ARE THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND AREAS OF FOG. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR AFTER LATE THIS
EVENING OR EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST IMPACTING KISN-KDIK-
KMOT-KBIS. VFR EXPECTED AT KJMS UNTIL SOME FOG SETS IN WITH AT
LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ABOUT A THIRD OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED MORE THAN THREE TIMES
THEIR NORMAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. SOIL
MOISTURE IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL
CAUSING EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND OVERLAND/SMALL STREAM FLOODING GROWS
WITH EACH PASSING THUNDERSTORM.

WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ESF TO HIGHLIGHT
FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. PRECIPITATION FOR
TONIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WE WILL SEE DURING
THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THE PLACEMENT OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TONIGHT...COUPLED WITH FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMING
MORE IN AGREEMENT...WILL HOPEFULLY SHED A BETTER LIGHT ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...NH











000
FXUS63 KBIS 212035
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE NEXT
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH CONVECTION FIRING UP NEAR THIS FEATURE
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...EXTENDING INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AHEAD OF A S/WV IMPULSE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE WYOMING ROCKIES. A STRONGER STORM FOR ANY OF THESE AREAS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE NOT EXPECTED.

MAIN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AFTER
00Z WHEN MODELS PROJECT A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AND AS A SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS NEAR THE
ND/SD BORDER. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED AS WELL BY AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK. COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE...SHOULD SEE A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST INTO
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY DAYTIME...SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY AND LIKELY LOW TO MID CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN LATER IN THE
DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN
MOVING EAST AND A SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

AT THIS TIME...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE OVERALL HEAVIER TOTALS
TO BE HIGHER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH 1-2.5 INCHES AVERAGED OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE HIT-AND-MISS CHARACTER OF WARM-SEASON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME AREAS RECEIVING HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHILE
OTHER LOCALES WILL LIKELY RECEIVE LESS THAN THE ANTICIPATED
AREA-WIDE AVERAGE. OVERLAND FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IN THOSE LOCALES
WHICH RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CANADA...CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA - BUT THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE OVER. BY WEDNESDAY ZONAL
WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WEATHER OR ONLY SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SCT-BKN MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NEXT
AVIATION HIGHLIGHT WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER TODAY
WEST...SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS LOOKS LIKELY MOST SITES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ABOUT A THIRD OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED MORE THAN THREE TIMES
THEIR NORMAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. SOIL
MOISTURE IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL
CAUSING EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND OVERLAND/SMALL STREAM FLOODING GROWS
WITH EACH PASSING THUNDERSTORM.

WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ESF TO HIGHLIGHT
FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. PRECIPITATION FOR
TONIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WE WILL SEE DURING
THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THE PLACEMENT OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TONIGHT...COUPLED WITH FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMING
MORE IN AGREEMENT...WILL HOPEFULLY SHED A BETTER LIGHT ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT OVER THE WEEKEND.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...NH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 212035
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE NEXT
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH CONVECTION FIRING UP NEAR THIS FEATURE
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...EXTENDING INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AHEAD OF A S/WV IMPULSE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE WYOMING ROCKIES. A STRONGER STORM FOR ANY OF THESE AREAS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE NOT EXPECTED.

MAIN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AFTER
00Z WHEN MODELS PROJECT A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AND AS A SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS NEAR THE
ND/SD BORDER. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED AS WELL BY AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK. COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE...SHOULD SEE A
FEW HEAVY RAINERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST INTO
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY DAYTIME...SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY AND LIKELY LOW TO MID CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN LATER IN THE
DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN
MOVING EAST AND A SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

AT THIS TIME...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE OVERALL HEAVIER TOTALS
TO BE HIGHER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH 1-2.5 INCHES AVERAGED OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE HIT-AND-MISS CHARACTER OF WARM-SEASON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME AREAS RECEIVING HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHILE
OTHER LOCALES WILL LIKELY RECEIVE LESS THAN THE ANTICIPATED
AREA-WIDE AVERAGE. OVERLAND FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IN THOSE LOCALES
WHICH RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CANADA...CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA - BUT THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS SHOULD BE OVER. BY WEDNESDAY ZONAL
WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WEATHER OR ONLY SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SCT-BKN MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NEXT
AVIATION HIGHLIGHT WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER TODAY
WEST...SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS LOOKS LIKELY MOST SITES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ABOUT A THIRD OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED MORE THAN THREE TIMES
THEIR NORMAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. SOIL
MOISTURE IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL
CAUSING EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND OVERLAND/SMALL STREAM FLOODING GROWS
WITH EACH PASSING THUNDERSTORM.

WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ESF TO HIGHLIGHT
FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. PRECIPITATION FOR
TONIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WE WILL SEE DURING
THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THE PLACEMENT OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TONIGHT...COUPLED WITH FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMING
MORE IN AGREEMENT...WILL HOPEFULLY SHED A BETTER LIGHT ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT OVER THE WEEKEND.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...NH









000
FXUS63 KBIS 211853
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
153 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO BURN OFF...BUT HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DO SO.
ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND OBS.

INCREASED POPS FAR WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MT MOVING SLOWLY EAST. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
SEVERE. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO ADJUSTING TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE
CLOUD COVER.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

EXTENDED FOG MENTION THROUGH THE MORNING AND INCREASED SKY COVER.
LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
WAKE OF A SURFACE TROUGH NOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF WITH TIME AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
RICH TODAY AND TONIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT
AS A STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. SEE OUR HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION BELOW.

OTHER UPDATES MINOR. TEMPERATURES WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY TO AREAS OF MORNING FOG TO THE
FORECAST. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FLOOD POTENTIAL LATER TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PRECIPITATION WAVES IS SCHEDULED TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING AT 21 UTC
TODAY...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00 UTC
NAM/HIRES ARW AND NMM...AND 06 UTC HRRR. CONVECTION IN THESE
MODELS REACHES THE U.S. 83 CORRIDOR BY 06 UTC...WHICH DOES WELL TO
ILLUSTRATE THE RATHER SLOW PROPAGATION. ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS THE NEAR RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE
00 UTC BISMARCK SOUNDING INDICATED 1.73 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WHICH IS 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE AUGUST MEAN.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY.

AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH ENTERS MONTANA SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS PROG HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS THE
MT/ND BORDER. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDRO CONCERNS DEVELOPING
WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.
FOR NOW WILL MENTION THE HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.

SOME DRYING IS THEN FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOWER PRECIP CHANCES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST GFS PROGS AN UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF PROGS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT COULD POSSIBLY SEE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING IF THE
ECMWF VERIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH AND EAST THIS EARLY AFTERNOON.
STILL EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NEXT
AVIATION HIGHLIGHT WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER TODAY
WEST...SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ABOUT A THIRD OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED MORE THAN THREE TIMES
THEIR NORMAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. SOIL
MOISTURE IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL
CAUSING EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND OVERLAND/SMALL STREAM FLOODING GROWS
WITH EACH PASSING THUNDERSTORM.

WE WILL USE THE PRECIPITATION FREE HOURS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON TO
GATHER OBSERVATIONS OF HOW WELL SOILS HANDLED THE OBSERVED RAIN
RATES OF ABOUT 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR. THAT INSIGHT WILL ALLOW
BETTER JUDGMENT ON WHETHER A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT BE
WARRANTED FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ESF TO HIGHLIGHT FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK








000
FXUS63 KBIS 211853
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
153 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO BURN OFF...BUT HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DO SO.
ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND OBS.

INCREASED POPS FAR WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MT MOVING SLOWLY EAST. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
SEVERE. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO ADJUSTING TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE
CLOUD COVER.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

EXTENDED FOG MENTION THROUGH THE MORNING AND INCREASED SKY COVER.
LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
WAKE OF A SURFACE TROUGH NOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF WITH TIME AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
RICH TODAY AND TONIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT
AS A STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. SEE OUR HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION BELOW.

OTHER UPDATES MINOR. TEMPERATURES WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY TO AREAS OF MORNING FOG TO THE
FORECAST. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FLOOD POTENTIAL LATER TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PRECIPITATION WAVES IS SCHEDULED TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING AT 21 UTC
TODAY...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00 UTC
NAM/HIRES ARW AND NMM...AND 06 UTC HRRR. CONVECTION IN THESE
MODELS REACHES THE U.S. 83 CORRIDOR BY 06 UTC...WHICH DOES WELL TO
ILLUSTRATE THE RATHER SLOW PROPAGATION. ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS THE NEAR RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE
00 UTC BISMARCK SOUNDING INDICATED 1.73 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WHICH IS 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE AUGUST MEAN.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY.

AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH ENTERS MONTANA SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS PROG HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS THE
MT/ND BORDER. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDRO CONCERNS DEVELOPING
WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.
FOR NOW WILL MENTION THE HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.

SOME DRYING IS THEN FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOWER PRECIP CHANCES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST GFS PROGS AN UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF PROGS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT COULD POSSIBLY SEE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING IF THE
ECMWF VERIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH AND EAST THIS EARLY AFTERNOON.
STILL EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NEXT
AVIATION HIGHLIGHT WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER TODAY
WEST...SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ABOUT A THIRD OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED MORE THAN THREE TIMES
THEIR NORMAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. SOIL
MOISTURE IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL
CAUSING EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND OVERLAND/SMALL STREAM FLOODING GROWS
WITH EACH PASSING THUNDERSTORM.

WE WILL USE THE PRECIPITATION FREE HOURS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON TO
GATHER OBSERVATIONS OF HOW WELL SOILS HANDLED THE OBSERVED RAIN
RATES OF ABOUT 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR. THAT INSIGHT WILL ALLOW
BETTER JUDGMENT ON WHETHER A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT BE
WARRANTED FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ESF TO HIGHLIGHT FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 211458
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
958 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

EXTENDED FOG MENTION THROUGH THE MORNING AND INCREASED SKY COVER.
LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
WAKE OF A SURFACE TROUGH NOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF WITH TIME AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
RICH TODAY AND TONIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT
AS A STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. SEE OUR HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION BELOW.

OTHER UPDATES MINOR. TEMPERATURES WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY TO AREAS OF MORNING FOG TO THE
FORECAST. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FLOOD POTENTIAL LATER TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PRECIPITATION WAVES IS SCHEDULED TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING AT 21 UTC
TODAY...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00 UTC
NAM/HIRES ARW AND NMM...AND 06 UTC HRRR. CONVECTION IN THESE
MODELS REACHES THE U.S. 83 CORRIDOR BY 06 UTC...WHICH DOES WELL TO
ILLUSTRATE THE RATHER SLOW PROPAGATION. ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS THE NEAR RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE
00 UTC BISMARCK SOUNDING INDICATED 1.73 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WHICH IS 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE AUGUST MEAN.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY.

AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH ENTERS MONTANA SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS PROG HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS THE
MT/ND BORDER. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDRO CONCERNS DEVELOPING
WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.
FOR NOW WILL MENTION THE HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.

SOME DRYING IS THEN FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOWER PRECIP CHANCES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST GFS PROGS AN UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF PROGS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT COULD POSSIBLY SEE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING IF THE
ECMWF VERIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED
AT KDIK/KISN BY 04Z...AND AT KBIS/KMOT AROUND 07Z.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ABOUT A THIRD OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED MORE THAN THREE TIMES
THEIR NORMAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. SOIL
MOISTURE IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL
CAUSING EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND OVERLAND/SMALL STREAM FLOODING GROWS
WITH EACH PASSING THUNDERSTORM.

WE WILL USE THE PRECIPITATION FREE HOURS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON TO
GATHER OBSERVATIONS OF HOW WELL SOILS HANDLED THE OBSERVED RAIN
RATES OF ABOUT 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR. THAT INSIGHT WILL ALLOW
BETTER JUDGMENT ON WHETHER A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT BE
WARRANTED FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ESF TO HIGHLIGHT FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 211458
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
958 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

EXTENDED FOG MENTION THROUGH THE MORNING AND INCREASED SKY COVER.
LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
WAKE OF A SURFACE TROUGH NOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF WITH TIME AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
RICH TODAY AND TONIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT
AS A STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. SEE OUR HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION BELOW.

OTHER UPDATES MINOR. TEMPERATURES WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY TO AREAS OF MORNING FOG TO THE
FORECAST. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FLOOD POTENTIAL LATER TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PRECIPITATION WAVES IS SCHEDULED TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING AT 21 UTC
TODAY...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00 UTC
NAM/HIRES ARW AND NMM...AND 06 UTC HRRR. CONVECTION IN THESE
MODELS REACHES THE U.S. 83 CORRIDOR BY 06 UTC...WHICH DOES WELL TO
ILLUSTRATE THE RATHER SLOW PROPAGATION. ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS THE NEAR RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE
00 UTC BISMARCK SOUNDING INDICATED 1.73 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WHICH IS 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE AUGUST MEAN.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY.

AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH ENTERS MONTANA SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS PROG HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS THE
MT/ND BORDER. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDRO CONCERNS DEVELOPING
WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.
FOR NOW WILL MENTION THE HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.

SOME DRYING IS THEN FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOWER PRECIP CHANCES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST GFS PROGS AN UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF PROGS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT COULD POSSIBLY SEE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING IF THE
ECMWF VERIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED
AT KDIK/KISN BY 04Z...AND AT KBIS/KMOT AROUND 07Z.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ABOUT A THIRD OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED MORE THAN THREE TIMES
THEIR NORMAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. SOIL
MOISTURE IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL
CAUSING EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND OVERLAND/SMALL STREAM FLOODING GROWS
WITH EACH PASSING THUNDERSTORM.

WE WILL USE THE PRECIPITATION FREE HOURS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON TO
GATHER OBSERVATIONS OF HOW WELL SOILS HANDLED THE OBSERVED RAIN
RATES OF ABOUT 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR. THAT INSIGHT WILL ALLOW
BETTER JUDGMENT ON WHETHER A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT BE
WARRANTED FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ESF TO HIGHLIGHT FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK








000
FXUS63 KBIS 211142
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY TO AREAS OF MORNING FOG TO THE
FORECAST. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FLOOD POTENTIAL LATER TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PRECIPITATION WAVES IS SCHEDULED TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING AT 21 UTC
TODAY...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00 UTC
NAM/HIRES ARW AND NMM...AND 06 UTC HRRR. CONVECTION IN THESE
MODELS REACHES THE U.S. 83 CORRIDOR BY 06 UTC...WHICH DOES WELL TO
ILLUSTRATE THE RATHER SLOW PROPAGATION. ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS THE NEAR RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE
00 UTC BISMARCK SOUNDING INDICATED 1.73 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WHICH IS 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE AUGUST MEAN.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY.

AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH ENTERS MONTANA SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS PROG HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS THE
MT/ND BORDER. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDRO CONCERNS DEVELOPING
WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.
FOR NOW WILL MENTION THE HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.

SOME DRYING IS THEN FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOWER PRECIP CHANCES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST GFS PROGS AN UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF PROGS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT COULD POSSIBLY SEE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING IF THE
ECMWF VERIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT/KBIS DUE TO LOW STRATUS
AND FOG...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS AT KJMS/KDIK. VFR WILL
RETURN BY 14Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AT KDIK/KISN BY
04Z...AND AT KBIS/KMOT AROUND 07Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ABOUT A THIRD OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED MORE THAN THREE TIMES
THEIR NORMAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. SOIL
MOISTURE IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL
CAUSING EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND OVERLAND/SMALL STREAM FLOODING GROWS
WITH EACH PASSING THUNDERSTORM.

WE WILL USE THE PRECIPITATION FREE HOURS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON TO
GATHER OBSERVATIONS OF HOW WELL SOILS HANDLED THE OBSERVED RAIN
RATES OF ABOUT 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR. THAT INSIGHT WILL ALLOW
BETTER JUDGMENT ON WHETHER A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT BE
WARRANTED FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ESF TO HIGHLIGHT FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...SCHECK
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK





000
FXUS63 KBIS 210941
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FLOOD POTENTIAL LATER TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PRECIPITATION WAVES IS SCHEDULED TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING AT 21 UTC
TODAY...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00 UTC
NAM/HIRES ARW AND NMM...AND 06 UTC HRRR. CONVECTION IN THESE
MODELS REACHES THE U.S. 83 CORRIDOR BY 06 UTC...WHICH DOES WELL TO
ILLUSTRATE THE RATHER SLOW PROPAGATION. ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS THE NEAR RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE
00 UTC BISMARCK SOUNDING INDICATED 1.73 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WHICH IS 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE AUGUST MEAN.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY.

AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH ENTERS MONTANA SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS PROG HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS THE
MT/ND BORDER. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDRO CONCERNS DEVELOPING
WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.
FOR NOW WILL MENTION THE HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.

SOME DRYING IS THEN FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOWER PRECIP CHANCES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST GFS PROGS AN UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF PROGS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT COULD POSSIBLY SEE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING IF THE
ECMWF VERIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT DUE TO LOW STRATUS
AND FOG...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS AT KJMS/KBIS/KDIK. VFR WILL
RETURN BY 14Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AT KDIK/KISN
BY 03Z...AND AT KBIS/KMOT BY 06Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ABOUT A THIRD OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED MORE THAN THREE TIMES
THEIR NORMAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. SOIL
MOISTURE IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL
CAUSING EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND OVERLAND/SMALL STREAM FLOODING GROWS
WITH EACH PASSING THUNDERSTORM.

WE WILL USE THE PRECIPITATION FREE HOURS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON TO
GATHER OBSERVATIONS OF HOW WELL SOILS HANDLED THE OBSERVED RAIN
RATES OF ABOUT 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR. THAT INSIGHT WILL ALLOW
BETTER JUDGMENT ON WHETHER A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT BE
WARRANTED FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ESF TO HIGHLIGHT FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...SCHECK
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 210941
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS FLOOD POTENTIAL LATER TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PRECIPITATION WAVES IS SCHEDULED TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING AT 21 UTC
TODAY...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00 UTC
NAM/HIRES ARW AND NMM...AND 06 UTC HRRR. CONVECTION IN THESE
MODELS REACHES THE U.S. 83 CORRIDOR BY 06 UTC...WHICH DOES WELL TO
ILLUSTRATE THE RATHER SLOW PROPAGATION. ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS THE NEAR RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE
00 UTC BISMARCK SOUNDING INDICATED 1.73 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WHICH IS 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE AUGUST MEAN.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY.

AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH ENTERS MONTANA SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS PROG HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS THE
MT/ND BORDER. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME HYDRO CONCERNS DEVELOPING
WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.
FOR NOW WILL MENTION THE HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.

SOME DRYING IS THEN FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. LOWER PRECIP CHANCES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST GFS PROGS AN UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF PROGS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT COULD POSSIBLY SEE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING IF THE
ECMWF VERIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT DUE TO LOW STRATUS
AND FOG...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS AT KJMS/KBIS/KDIK. VFR WILL
RETURN BY 14Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AT KDIK/KISN
BY 03Z...AND AT KBIS/KMOT BY 06Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ABOUT A THIRD OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED MORE THAN THREE TIMES
THEIR NORMAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. SOIL
MOISTURE IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL
CAUSING EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND OVERLAND/SMALL STREAM FLOODING GROWS
WITH EACH PASSING THUNDERSTORM.

WE WILL USE THE PRECIPITATION FREE HOURS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON TO
GATHER OBSERVATIONS OF HOW WELL SOILS HANDLED THE OBSERVED RAIN
RATES OF ABOUT 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR. THAT INSIGHT WILL ALLOW
BETTER JUDGMENT ON WHETHER A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT BE
WARRANTED FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ESF TO HIGHLIGHT FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...SCHECK
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK





000
FXUS63 KBIS 210650
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
150 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THIS UPDATE CHANGED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE HIRES ARW AND NMM...AS WELL AS THE HRRR. THESE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN DUE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...BUT STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN
MCINTOSH AND DICKEY COUNTIES.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE FLOODING POTENTIAL AS ACTIVE
WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE REMOVES BURLEIGH/SIOUX COUNTIES FROM WATCH. FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...ISSUED AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY
EMMONS...MCINTOSH AND LOGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 3 AM CDT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TRIMMED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM EMMONS TO
LOGAN AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...POSSIBLY UP INTO KIDDER COUNTY AS
WELL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THERE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IN THREE
HOURS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATE TO REMOVE ADAMS AND HETTINGER COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVER KMOT-KJMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER KMOT-KBIS-KJMS IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...TM
HYDROLOGY...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 210650
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
150 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THIS UPDATE CHANGED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE HIRES ARW AND NMM...AS WELL AS THE HRRR. THESE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN DUE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...BUT STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN
MCINTOSH AND DICKEY COUNTIES.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE FLOODING POTENTIAL AS ACTIVE
WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE REMOVES BURLEIGH/SIOUX COUNTIES FROM WATCH. FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...ISSUED AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY
EMMONS...MCINTOSH AND LOGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 3 AM CDT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TRIMMED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM EMMONS TO
LOGAN AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...POSSIBLY UP INTO KIDDER COUNTY AS
WELL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THERE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IN THREE
HOURS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATE TO REMOVE ADAMS AND HETTINGER COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVER KMOT-KJMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER KMOT-KBIS-KJMS IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...TM
HYDROLOGY...AYD









000
FXUS63 KBIS 210403
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1103 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...BUT STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN
MCINTOSH AND DICKEY COUNTIES.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE FLOODING POTENTIAL AS ACTIVE
WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE REMOVES BURLEIGH/SIOUX COUNTIES FROM WATCH. FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...ISSUED AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY
EMMONS...MCINTOSH AND LOGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 3 AM CDT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TRIMMED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM EMMONS TO
LOGAN AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...POSSIBLY UP INTO KIDDER COUNTY AS
WELL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THERE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IN THREE
HOURS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATE TO REMOVE ADAMS AND HETTINGER COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KJMS THIS EVENING.
AT 930 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE OW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR
EXPECTED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210403
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1103 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...BUT STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN
MCINTOSH AND DICKEY COUNTIES.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE FLOODING POTENTIAL AS ACTIVE
WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE REMOVES BURLEIGH/SIOUX COUNTIES FROM WATCH. FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...ISSUED AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY
EMMONS...MCINTOSH AND LOGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 3 AM CDT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TRIMMED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM EMMONS TO
LOGAN AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...POSSIBLY UP INTO KIDDER COUNTY AS
WELL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THERE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IN THREE
HOURS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATE TO REMOVE ADAMS AND HETTINGER COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KJMS THIS EVENING.
AT 930 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE OW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR
EXPECTED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 210403
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1103 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...BUT STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN
MCINTOSH AND DICKEY COUNTIES.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE FLOODING POTENTIAL AS ACTIVE
WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE REMOVES BURLEIGH/SIOUX COUNTIES FROM WATCH. FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...ISSUED AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY
EMMONS...MCINTOSH AND LOGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 3 AM CDT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TRIMMED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM EMMONS TO
LOGAN AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...POSSIBLY UP INTO KIDDER COUNTY AS
WELL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THERE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IN THREE
HOURS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATE TO REMOVE ADAMS AND HETTINGER COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KJMS THIS EVENING.
AT 930 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE OW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR
EXPECTED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 210403
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1103 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...BUT STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN
MCINTOSH AND DICKEY COUNTIES.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE FLOODING POTENTIAL AS ACTIVE
WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE REMOVES BURLEIGH/SIOUX COUNTIES FROM WATCH. FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...ISSUED AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY
EMMONS...MCINTOSH AND LOGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 3 AM CDT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TRIMMED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM EMMONS TO
LOGAN AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...POSSIBLY UP INTO KIDDER COUNTY AS
WELL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THERE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IN THREE
HOURS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATE TO REMOVE ADAMS AND HETTINGER COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KJMS THIS EVENING.
AT 930 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE OW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR
EXPECTED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210256
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE REMOVES BURLEIGH/SIOUX COUNTIES FROM WATCH. FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...ISSUED AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY
EMMONS...MCINTOSH AND LOGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 3 AM CDT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TRIMMED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM EMMONS TO
LOGAN AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...POSSIBLY UP INTO KIDDER COUNTY AS
WELL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THERE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IN THREE
HOURS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATE TO REMOVE ADAMS AND HETTINGER COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KJMS THIS EVENING.
AT 930 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE OW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR
EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 210256
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE REMOVES BURLEIGH/SIOUX COUNTIES FROM WATCH. FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...ISSUED AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY
EMMONS...MCINTOSH AND LOGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 3 AM CDT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TRIMMED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM EMMONS TO
LOGAN AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...POSSIBLY UP INTO KIDDER COUNTY AS
WELL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THERE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IN THREE
HOURS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATE TO REMOVE ADAMS AND HETTINGER COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KJMS THIS EVENING.
AT 930 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE OW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR
EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210222
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
922 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TRIMMED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM EMMONS TO
LOGAN AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES...POSSIBLY UP INTO KIDDER COUNTY AS
WELL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THERE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IN THREE
HOURS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATE TO REMOVE ADAMS AND HETTINGER COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KBIS-KJMS THIS
EVENING. AT 900 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE OW PRESSURE
ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.  POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 210019
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
719 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATE TO REMOVE ADAMS AND HETTINGER COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KBIS-KJMS THIS
EVENING. AT 630 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 210019
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
719 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATE TO REMOVE ADAMS AND HETTINGER COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KBIS-KJMS THIS
EVENING. AT 630 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 202359
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
659 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KBIS-KJMS THIS
EVENING. AT 630 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 202359
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
659 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT
CONTINUES AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KBIS-KJMS THIS
EVENING. AT 630 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 202224
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
524 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KBIS-KJMS THIS
EVENING. AT 5 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 202224
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
524 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS KBIS-KJMS THIS
EVENING. AT 5 PM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 201946
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
246 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. EMBEDDED MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. SEE TAFS FOR THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND IMPACTS

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 201946
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
246 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR WHERE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S. SOME WEAK ML INHIBITION REMAINS...WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT OUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...ON THE ORDER OF
THE 25-30 KTS...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL OR TWO IF
INHIBITION CAN BE OVER COME. GREATER CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL 21-00 UTC WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY THREAT AS CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN SLOW
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS...WITH CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FINALLY...CONTINGENT UPON SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT WANING AFTER SUNSET.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT BEFORE THE WET PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR
CONCERN IS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH GENERALLY HIGH QPF...WHICH IF
THIS COMES TO FRUITION MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. NATIONAL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS COULD BRING THE CONCERNS FURTHER
EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER
AIRMASS WILL START TO SINK IN FRIDAY WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. EMBEDDED MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. SEE TAFS FOR THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND IMPACTS

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE CENTERED UPON THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAIN...ITS EXACT PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE MODEL TRACKS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE A BIT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON A
WATCH FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND
ISSUE AN SPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 201818
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
118 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH 18 UTC...THE SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST WHERE
FILTERED SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
DEW POINTS. THAT SAID...CONTINUED FILTERED INSOLATION...AND THE
COLD FRONT DISPLACED TO THE WEST FROM THE BEST INSTABILITY... JUST
CROSSING THE MONTANA BORDER AS OF 18 UTC...ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL CENTRAL.

THE FURTHER WEST...ONGOING ELEVATED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THEIR
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AND SEVERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

WITH THE 13 UTC OUTLOOK SPC HAS EXPANDED THE DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK
TO INCLUDE MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SEE OUTLOOK
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

DID ADJUST MORNING POPS FOR THE ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL. HEAVY RAIN IS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WITH CORFIDI VECTORS OF 10 KTS OR
LESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES REQUIRED.
THE FRESHENED UP TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON FLOODING POTENTIAL AS TWO ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL THREATEN TO BOTH EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING
AND CAUSE NEW IMPACTS.

THE 00 UTC HIRES ARW AND WRF/HRRR HAVE ALL TRENDED SLOWER WITH
ONSET AND NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM GLOBAL AND
WPC HAVE ALL HELD WITH THE IDEA THAT CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE ENTIRE INSTABILITY AXIS...AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST BEFORE EXITING
THURSDAY MORNING.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID NOT FAVOR ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS SO KEPT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH FOR
THE EXTENDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(HIGHS AROUND 70).

THE GFS HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF PROGGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING SUNDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. FOR MONDAY...A LITTLE DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST. GIVEN THE PATTERN...WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE AT ALL
TAF SITES TODAY. TIMING REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...SO THERE MAY BE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD OF
SHRA AT MOST SITES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THAT SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOILS ARE NEARLY SATURATED ACROSS MOST OF THE MISSOURI TRIBUTARY
COUNTIES...AND THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN COUNTIES THAT HAVE JUXTAPOSITION OF
NEARLY SATURATED ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS...INSTABILITY...
CORFIDI VECTORS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL CONFUSION WITH SUCH AN EXTENDED DURATION
EVENT...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL...NO FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS FIRST ROUND OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 201818
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
118 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH 18 UTC...THE SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST WHERE
FILTERED SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
80S...AMID A MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
DEW POINTS. THAT SAID...CONTINUED FILTERED INSOLATION...AND THE
COLD FRONT DISPLACED TO THE WEST FROM THE BEST INSTABILITY... JUST
CROSSING THE MONTANA BORDER AS OF 18 UTC...ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL CENTRAL.

THE FURTHER WEST...ONGOING ELEVATED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THEIR
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AND SEVERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

WITH THE 13 UTC OUTLOOK SPC HAS EXPANDED THE DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK
TO INCLUDE MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SEE OUTLOOK
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

DID ADJUST MORNING POPS FOR THE ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL. HEAVY RAIN IS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WITH CORFIDI VECTORS OF 10 KTS OR
LESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES REQUIRED.
THE FRESHENED UP TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON FLOODING POTENTIAL AS TWO ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL THREATEN TO BOTH EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING
AND CAUSE NEW IMPACTS.

THE 00 UTC HIRES ARW AND WRF/HRRR HAVE ALL TRENDED SLOWER WITH
ONSET AND NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM GLOBAL AND
WPC HAVE ALL HELD WITH THE IDEA THAT CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE ENTIRE INSTABILITY AXIS...AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST BEFORE EXITING
THURSDAY MORNING.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID NOT FAVOR ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS SO KEPT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH FOR
THE EXTENDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(HIGHS AROUND 70).

THE GFS HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF PROGGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING SUNDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. FOR MONDAY...A LITTLE DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST. GIVEN THE PATTERN...WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE AT ALL
TAF SITES TODAY. TIMING REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...SO THERE MAY BE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD OF
SHRA AT MOST SITES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THAT SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOILS ARE NEARLY SATURATED ACROSS MOST OF THE MISSOURI TRIBUTARY
COUNTIES...AND THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN COUNTIES THAT HAVE JUXTAPOSITION OF
NEARLY SATURATED ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS...INSTABILITY...
CORFIDI VECTORS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL CONFUSION WITH SUCH AN EXTENDED DURATION
EVENT...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL...NO FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS FIRST ROUND OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK








000
FXUS63 KBIS 201429
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
929 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

WITH THE 13 UTC OUTLOOK SPC HAS EXPANDED THE DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK
TO INCLUDE MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SEE OUTLOOK
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

DID ADJUST MORNING POPS FOR THE ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL. HEAVY RAIN IS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WITH CORFIDI VECTORS OF 10 KTS OR
LESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES REQUIRED.
THE FRESHENED UP TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON FLOODING POTENTIAL AS TWO ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL THREATEN TO BOTH EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING
AND CAUSE NEW IMPACTS.

THE 00 UTC HIRES ARW AND WRF/HRRR HAVE ALL TRENDED SLOWER WITH
ONSET AND NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM GLOBAL AND
WPC HAVE ALL HELD WITH THE IDEA THAT CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE ENTIRE INSTABILITY AXIS...AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST BEFORE EXITING
THURSDAY MORNING.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID NOT FAVOR ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS SO KEPT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH FOR
THE EXTENDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(HIGHS AROUND 70).

THE GFS HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF PROGGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING SUNDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. FOR MONDAY...A LITTLE DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST. GIVEN THE PATTERN...WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 827 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE AT ALL
TAF SITES TODAY. TIMING REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...SO THERE MAY BE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD OF
SHRA AT MOST SITES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THAT SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOILS ARE NEARLY SATURATED ACROSS MOST OF THE MISSOURI TRIBUTARY
COUNTIES...AND THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN COUNTIES THAT HAVE JUXTAPOSITION OF
NEARLY SATURATED ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS...INSTABILITY...
CORFIDI VECTORS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL CONFUSION WITH SUCH AN EXTENDED DURATION
EVENT...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL...NO FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS FIRST ROUND OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 201135
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES REQUIRED.
THE FRESHENED UP TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON FLOODING POTENTIAL AS TWO ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL THREATEN TO BOTH EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING
AND CAUSE NEW IMPACTS.

THE 00 UTC HIRES ARW AND WRF/HRRR HAVE ALL TRENDED SLOWER WITH
ONSET AND NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM GLOBAL AND
WPC HAVE ALL HELD WITH THE IDEA THAT CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE ENTIRE INSTABILITY AXIS...AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST BEFORE EXITING
THURSDAY MORNING.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID NOT FAVOR ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS SO KEPT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH FOR
THE EXTENDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(HIGHS AROUND 70).

THE GFS HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF PROGGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING SUNDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. FOR MONDAY...A LITTLE DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST. GIVEN THE PATTERN...WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE AT ALL
TAF SITES TODAY. TIMING REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...SO THERE MAY BE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD OF
SHRA AT MOST SITES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THAT SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOILS ARE NEARLY SATURATED ACROSS MOST OF THE MISSOURI TRIBUTARY
COUNTIES...AND THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN COUNTIES THAT HAVE JUXTAPOSITION OF
NEARLY SATURATED ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS...INSTABILITY...
CORFIDI VECTORS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL CONFUSION WITH SUCH AN EXTENDED DURATION
EVENT...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL...NO FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS FIRST ROUND OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...SCHECK
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK





000
FXUS63 KBIS 201135
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES REQUIRED.
THE FRESHENED UP TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON FLOODING POTENTIAL AS TWO ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL THREATEN TO BOTH EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING
AND CAUSE NEW IMPACTS.

THE 00 UTC HIRES ARW AND WRF/HRRR HAVE ALL TRENDED SLOWER WITH
ONSET AND NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM GLOBAL AND
WPC HAVE ALL HELD WITH THE IDEA THAT CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE ENTIRE INSTABILITY AXIS...AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST BEFORE EXITING
THURSDAY MORNING.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID NOT FAVOR ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS SO KEPT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH FOR
THE EXTENDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(HIGHS AROUND 70).

THE GFS HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF PROGGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING SUNDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. FOR MONDAY...A LITTLE DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST. GIVEN THE PATTERN...WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE AT ALL
TAF SITES TODAY. TIMING REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...SO THERE MAY BE
ADJUSTMENTS LATER. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE A LONG PERIOD OF
SHRA AT MOST SITES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY THAT SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOILS ARE NEARLY SATURATED ACROSS MOST OF THE MISSOURI TRIBUTARY
COUNTIES...AND THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN COUNTIES THAT HAVE JUXTAPOSITION OF
NEARLY SATURATED ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS...INSTABILITY...
CORFIDI VECTORS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL CONFUSION WITH SUCH AN EXTENDED DURATION
EVENT...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL...NO FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS FIRST ROUND OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...SCHECK
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 200932
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A POTENT WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL DIRECT A
SERIES OF MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON FLOODING POTENTIAL AS TWO ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL THREATEN TO BOTH EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING
AND CAUSE NEW IMPACTS.

THE 00 UTC HIRES ARW AND WRF/HRRR HAVE ALL TRENDED SLOWER WITH
ONSET AND NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM GLOBAL AND
WPC HAVE ALL HELD WITH THE IDEA THAT CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE ENTIRE INSTABILITY AXIS...AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST BEFORE EXITING
THURSDAY MORNING.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID NOT FAVOR ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS SO KEPT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH FOR
THE EXTENDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(HIGHS AROUND 70).

THE GFS HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF PROGGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING SUNDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. FOR MONDAY...A LITTLE DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST. GIVEN THE PATTERN...WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT BEYOND THAT TREND...SO THE
TIMING IN TAFS IS A BEST GUESS. THERE COULD BE MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOILS ARE NEARLY SATURATED ACROSS MOST OF THE MISSOURI TRIBUTARY
COUNTIES...AND THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN COUNTIES THAT HAVE JUXTAPOSITION OF
NEARLY SATURATED ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS...INSTABILITY...
CORFIDI VECTORS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL CONFUSION WITH SUCH AN EXTENDED DURATION
EVENT...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL...NO FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS FIRST ROUND OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...SCHECK
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 200932
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A POTENT WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL DIRECT A
SERIES OF MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON FLOODING POTENTIAL AS TWO ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL THREATEN TO BOTH EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING
AND CAUSE NEW IMPACTS.

THE 00 UTC HIRES ARW AND WRF/HRRR HAVE ALL TRENDED SLOWER WITH
ONSET AND NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS/GEM GLOBAL AND
WPC HAVE ALL HELD WITH THE IDEA THAT CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE ENTIRE INSTABILITY AXIS...AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST BEFORE EXITING
THURSDAY MORNING.

SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID NOT FAVOR ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS SO KEPT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH FOR
THE EXTENDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(HIGHS AROUND 70).

THE GFS HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF PROGGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING SUNDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. FOR MONDAY...A LITTLE DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST. GIVEN THE PATTERN...WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT BEYOND THAT TREND...SO THE
TIMING IN TAFS IS A BEST GUESS. THERE COULD BE MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOILS ARE NEARLY SATURATED ACROSS MOST OF THE MISSOURI TRIBUTARY
COUNTIES...AND THE MAIN FLOOD THREAT AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN COUNTIES THAT HAVE JUXTAPOSITION OF
NEARLY SATURATED ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS...INSTABILITY...
CORFIDI VECTORS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL CONFUSION WITH SUCH AN EXTENDED DURATION
EVENT...AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL...NO FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THIS FIRST ROUND OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...SCHECK
HYDROLOGY...SCHECK





000
FXUS63 KBIS 200622
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
122 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND THE
FLOOD RISK. THE 00 UTC HIRES ARW AND WRF AND HRRR ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TOO FAST WITH THE ONSET OF
CONVECTION. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A TREND TOWARD PUSHING CONVECTION
FURTHER NORTH...WHICH WOULD SPARE MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST FROM
HEAVIER AMOUNTS. DECISIONS WILL NEED TO BE MADE THIS MORNING
REGARDING ANY FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION LIFTING THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL. ALSO WEAK CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS DO SHOW AN INCREASING JET OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT IN AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT. COULD POSSIBLY BE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT SO
EXTENDED SOME SLIGHT POPS EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND 25-35
KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. ONE HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED FROM BOWMAN
INTO ADAMS COUNTY. THE SECOND IS STILL HOLDING TOGETHER OVER
CENTRAL SLOPE. WILL MAINTAIN OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. A FEW CELLS TRIED TO FIRE OVER THE NORTHWEST BUT WITH
LESS LUCK IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST BUT IS HAVING A HARD
TIME MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL HOLD OFF ON BRINGING ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE QUIET ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE PROBLEM IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER
UTAH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 50S WEST AND IN THE 60S OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND APPROACHES
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN RESPONSE...THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD SO THAT BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY IT IS ALONG
THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER. SOME MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE WEST...AND HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED/SMALL CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHORTLY AFTER/AT DAYBREAK THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS. AROUND/AFTER NOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE IMPACTING ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE NOT COMING TO A GOOD
CONSENSUS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE NAM
MODEL IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...WITH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (SOURIS
RIVER BASIN) TAKING THE BIGGEST HIT. THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO SPLIT THE
ENERGY - AND HENCE RESULTING IN TWO HEAVIER PRECIP BULLS-EYES - WITH
ONE OVER THE SOURIS BASIN...AND ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE OTHER SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FINAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST INVOLVES A SECTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN...AND AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL.

A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESF) HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ALSO
ADDRESSES THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A VERY ACTIVE/WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

WILL NOTE 12Z MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION...TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AS A MID LEVEL S/WV
IMPULSE EJECTS INTO CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VERY POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WE REMAIN IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DECREASING
CIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...ALONG WITH FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION RESULTING
IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BASED ON THE
PROJECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL S/WV DEPICTED BY BOTH THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF...MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL THURS
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. MODEL SPREADS RATHER HIGH IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH LEAD S/WV
IMPULSES DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO KEY IN ON AT THIS TIME. SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES AS WELL SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE TRACK OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
LOOKS TO BE WET MOST LOCATIONS.

WE REMAIN IN A QUASI-ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND STRONG CAA ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG SURFACE LOW AND UNDERNEATH THE UPPER WAVE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO UPPER 70S AND MID 80S ON THURSDAY. A
SLIGHT MODERATION IN HIGHS FORECAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT BEYOND THAT TREND...SO THE
TIMING IN TAFS IS A BEST GUESS. THERE COULD BE MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE WILL BE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THOSE AREAS
OF THE STATE WHICH RECEIVE MULTIPLE PASSES OF HEAVY RAINS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
OF OVERLAND AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

WHILE THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY
TO NEAR NORMAL THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SOME OF THE MODELS DEPICT
WIDESPREAD RAINS BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE SOURIS IN NORTH DAKOTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. AREAS THAT
RECEIVE AN INITIAL WETTING DURING THE EARLIER EVENT ARE MORE LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF DURING THE LATTER RAINS. SEVERAL
MISSOURI RIVER TRIBUTARIES WERE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT BY HEAVY RAINS
LAST WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE KNIFE AND HEART RIVERS ALONG WITH APPLE
CREEK. THESE RIVERS WILL STILL BE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS THE
NEXT FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE STATE.

THE JAMES AND PIPESTEM CREEK BASINS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
AFFECTED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH RAIN
TO KEEP THE SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...SCHECK
HYDROLOGY...AJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 200622
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
122 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND THE
FLOOD RISK. THE 00 UTC HIRES ARW AND WRF AND HRRR ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TOO FAST WITH THE ONSET OF
CONVECTION. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A TREND TOWARD PUSHING CONVECTION
FURTHER NORTH...WHICH WOULD SPARE MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST FROM
HEAVIER AMOUNTS. DECISIONS WILL NEED TO BE MADE THIS MORNING
REGARDING ANY FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION LIFTING THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL. ALSO WEAK CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. MODELS DO SHOW AN INCREASING JET OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT IN AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT. COULD POSSIBLY BE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT SO
EXTENDED SOME SLIGHT POPS EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND 25-35
KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. ONE HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED FROM BOWMAN
INTO ADAMS COUNTY. THE SECOND IS STILL HOLDING TOGETHER OVER
CENTRAL SLOPE. WILL MAINTAIN OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. A FEW CELLS TRIED TO FIRE OVER THE NORTHWEST BUT WITH
LESS LUCK IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST BUT IS HAVING A HARD
TIME MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL HOLD OFF ON BRINGING ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE QUIET ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE PROBLEM IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER
UTAH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 50S WEST AND IN THE 60S OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND APPROACHES
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IN RESPONSE...THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD SO THAT BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY IT IS ALONG
THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER. SOME MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE WEST...AND HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED/SMALL CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE
STATE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHORTLY AFTER/AT DAYBREAK THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS. AROUND/AFTER NOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE IMPACTING ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE NOT COMING TO A GOOD
CONSENSUS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE NAM
MODEL IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...WITH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (SOURIS
RIVER BASIN) TAKING THE BIGGEST HIT. THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO SPLIT THE
ENERGY - AND HENCE RESULTING IN TWO HEAVIER PRECIP BULLS-EYES - WITH
ONE OVER THE SOURIS BASIN...AND ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE OTHER SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FINAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST INVOLVES A SECTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN...AND AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL.

A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESF) HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ALSO
ADDRESSES THE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A VERY ACTIVE/WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

WILL NOTE 12Z MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION...TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AS A MID LEVEL S/WV
IMPULSE EJECTS INTO CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
VERY POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WE REMAIN IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DECREASING
CIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...ALONG WITH FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION RESULTING
IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BASED ON THE
PROJECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL S/WV DEPICTED BY BOTH THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF...MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL THURS
NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THEN LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SAT
NIGHT-SUN NIGHT. MODEL SPREADS RATHER HIGH IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH LEAD S/WV
IMPULSES DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO KEY IN ON AT THIS TIME. SOME
LOCATION DIFFERENCES AS WELL SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE TRACK OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
LOOKS TO BE WET MOST LOCATIONS.

WE REMAIN IN A QUASI-ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND STRONG CAA ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG SURFACE LOW AND UNDERNEATH THE UPPER WAVE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO UPPER 70S AND MID 80S ON THURSDAY. A
SLIGHT MODERATION IN HIGHS FORECAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT BEYOND THAT TREND...SO THE
TIMING IN TAFS IS A BEST GUESS. THERE COULD BE MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THERE WILL BE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THOSE AREAS
OF THE STATE WHICH RECEIVE MULTIPLE PASSES OF HEAVY RAINS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
OF OVERLAND AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

WHILE THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY
TO NEAR NORMAL THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SOME OF THE MODELS DEPICT
WIDESPREAD RAINS BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE SOURIS IN NORTH DAKOTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. AREAS THAT
RECEIVE AN INITIAL WETTING DURING THE EARLIER EVENT ARE MORE LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF DURING THE LATTER RAINS. SEVERAL
MISSOURI RIVER TRIBUTARIES WERE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT BY HEAVY RAINS
LAST WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE KNIFE AND HEART RIVERS ALONG WITH APPLE
CREEK. THESE RIVERS WILL STILL BE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS THE
NEXT FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE STATE.

THE JAMES AND PIPESTEM CREEK BASINS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY
AFFECTED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH RAIN
TO KEEP THE SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...SCHECK
HYDROLOGY...AJS








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