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000
FXUS63 KBIS 312337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

WE REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES GENERALLY 1000-1500
J/KG...HOWEVER...NOTHING YET HAS IGNITED CONVECTION. WEAK IMPULSES
SLIDING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE COULD YET SPARK A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
BUT THIS SMALL LIKELIHOOD WILL DIMINISH EVEN MORE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE EVENING. LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANYTHING OF
SIGNIFICANCE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THE LATEST
HRRR DOES BRING CONVECTION INTO THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING BUT
SEEMS OVERDONE WITH INITIALIZED CONVECTION COMPARED TO CURRENT
CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP OUR INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...WHICH
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA WHILE
BROAD HIGH STRETCHES THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE MIDWEST.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE LOW SPINS NEAR JAMES BAY BRINGING NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK IMPULSES
SLIDING THROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...PARADE OF WEAK
IMPULSES CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE FLOW WHILE A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND LIFT INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH
THE COMBINATION OF THESE...WILL KEEP LOW SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ON FRIDAY...SIMILAR SCENARIO CONTINUES AS VARIETY OF WEAK WAVES
MOVE THROUGH NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHILE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTH/WEST WITH THESE FEATURES. EARLIER HI-RES MODEL RUNS DEPICTED
SOME STRONGER CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT HAVE SINCE
BACKED OFF SO DID NOT INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE FORECAST. IF THIS
RE-APPEARS IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO TAKE THIS
INTO CONSIDERATION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/GEM GLOBAL ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE
HUDSON BAY CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT AS WEAK BLOCKING FLOW
DEVELOPS AND REPLACES NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. ASSORTED WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MEANDERING AROUND THE
REX BLOCK...ALONG WITH GENERAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE ASSOCIATED
CUT OFF LOW...JUSTIFY DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION.

PERHAPS THE BEST DAY FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
MONDAY...WHEN THE 12 UTC GEM GLOBAL/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE QPF OVER
TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW...HOWEVER...TO
BEGIN MENTIONING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTION
POSSIBILITIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NOT CARRY ANY VCTS WITH
THE 00 UTC TAF ISSUANCE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW TONIGHT
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON FRIDAY...YET REMAINING UNDER 15 KNOTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 312337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

WE REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES GENERALLY 1000-1500
J/KG...HOWEVER...NOTHING YET HAS IGNITED CONVECTION. WEAK IMPULSES
SLIDING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE COULD YET SPARK A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
BUT THIS SMALL LIKELIHOOD WILL DIMINISH EVEN MORE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE EVENING. LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANYTHING OF
SIGNIFICANCE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THE LATEST
HRRR DOES BRING CONVECTION INTO THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING BUT
SEEMS OVERDONE WITH INITIALIZED CONVECTION COMPARED TO CURRENT
CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP OUR INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...WHICH
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA WHILE
BROAD HIGH STRETCHES THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE MIDWEST.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE LOW SPINS NEAR JAMES BAY BRINGING NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK IMPULSES
SLIDING THROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...PARADE OF WEAK
IMPULSES CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE FLOW WHILE A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND LIFT INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH
THE COMBINATION OF THESE...WILL KEEP LOW SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ON FRIDAY...SIMILAR SCENARIO CONTINUES AS VARIETY OF WEAK WAVES
MOVE THROUGH NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHILE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTH/WEST WITH THESE FEATURES. EARLIER HI-RES MODEL RUNS DEPICTED
SOME STRONGER CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT HAVE SINCE
BACKED OFF SO DID NOT INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE FORECAST. IF THIS
RE-APPEARS IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO TAKE THIS
INTO CONSIDERATION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/GEM GLOBAL ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE
HUDSON BAY CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT AS WEAK BLOCKING FLOW
DEVELOPS AND REPLACES NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. ASSORTED WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MEANDERING AROUND THE
REX BLOCK...ALONG WITH GENERAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE ASSOCIATED
CUT OFF LOW...JUSTIFY DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION.

PERHAPS THE BEST DAY FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
MONDAY...WHEN THE 12 UTC GEM GLOBAL/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE QPF OVER
TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW...HOWEVER...TO
BEGIN MENTIONING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTION
POSSIBILITIES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NOT CARRY ANY VCTS WITH
THE 00 UTC TAF ISSUANCE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW TONIGHT
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON FRIDAY...YET REMAINING UNDER 15 KNOTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 312019
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
319 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA WHILE
BROAD HIGH STRETCHES THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE MIDWEST.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE LOW SPINS NEAR JAMES BAY BRINGING NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK IMPULSES
SLIDING THROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...PARADE OF WEAK
IMPULSES CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE FLOW WHILE A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND LIFT INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH
THE COMBINATION OF THESE...WILL KEEP LOW SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ON FRIDAY...SIMILAR SCENARIO CONTINUES AS VARIETY OF WEAK WAVES
MOVE THROUGH NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHILE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP LOW POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTH/WEST WITH THESE FEATURES. EARLIER HI-RES MODEL RUNS DEPICTED
SOME STRONGER CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT HAVE SINCE
BACKED OFF SO DID NOT INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE FORECAST. IF THIS
RE-APPEARS IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO TAKE THIS
INTO CONSIDERATION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/GEM GLOBAL ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE
HUDSON BAY CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT AS WEAK BLOCKING FLOW
DEVELOPS AND REPLACES NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. ASSORTED WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MEANDERING AROUND THE
REX BLOCK...ALONG WITH GENERAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE ASSOCIATED
CUT OFF LOW...JUSTIFY DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION.

PERHAPS THE BEST DAY FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
MONDAY...WHEN THE 12 UTC GEM GLOBAL/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE QPF OVER
TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW...HOWEVER...TO
BEGIN MENTIONING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 311733
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1233 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SPREAD LOW POPS
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CU FIELD CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP OVER THAT AREA...AND THE LAST FEW DAYS THIS HAS RESULTED
IN SOME LIGHT PRECIP. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS CURRENT
TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MORNING UPDATE ADDRESSES SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING FURTHER NORTH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED UPON DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING
NORTH OF THE BORDER. CLOUD COVER WITH THIS HAS ALSO BEEN
ADDRESSED. HAVE ALSO REMOVED FOG AS VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IS ON
TRACK AND SUPPORTED BY THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS AND INCOMING 10 UTC
HRRR. FORECAST BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. A COMPENSATORY
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WAS CONTINUING
INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WERE SEEN
RIDING THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN OVER THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...A SUSTAINING CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE AREAL
EXTENT AND TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NAM12/HRRR/RAP13 ARE HANDLING THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FAIRLY WELL EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
MONTANA IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE TAKING SHAPE THROUGH THE DAY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 EAST
CENTRAL TO 90 WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
55 TO 60.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A NOMINAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH ALL FIELDS WELL WITHIN ONE STANDARD DEVIATION OF
THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO BE IN
AGREEMENT ON DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH NEAR
ZONAL FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES PEAKING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A SLOW RELATIVE COOL DOWN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION...THERE IS A NEAR DAILY
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH MULTIPLE LOW PREDICTABILITY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONING TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 311733
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1233 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SPREAD LOW POPS
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CU FIELD CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP OVER THAT AREA...AND THE LAST FEW DAYS THIS HAS RESULTED
IN SOME LIGHT PRECIP. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS CURRENT
TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MORNING UPDATE ADDRESSES SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING FURTHER NORTH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED UPON DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING
NORTH OF THE BORDER. CLOUD COVER WITH THIS HAS ALSO BEEN
ADDRESSED. HAVE ALSO REMOVED FOG AS VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IS ON
TRACK AND SUPPORTED BY THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS AND INCOMING 10 UTC
HRRR. FORECAST BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. A COMPENSATORY
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WAS CONTINUING
INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WERE SEEN
RIDING THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN OVER THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...A SUSTAINING CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE AREAL
EXTENT AND TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NAM12/HRRR/RAP13 ARE HANDLING THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FAIRLY WELL EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
MONTANA IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE TAKING SHAPE THROUGH THE DAY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 EAST
CENTRAL TO 90 WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
55 TO 60.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A NOMINAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH ALL FIELDS WELL WITHIN ONE STANDARD DEVIATION OF
THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO BE IN
AGREEMENT ON DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH NEAR
ZONAL FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES PEAKING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A SLOW RELATIVE COOL DOWN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION...THERE IS A NEAR DAILY
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH MULTIPLE LOW PREDICTABILITY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONING TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 311355
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
855 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MORNING UPDATE ADDRESSES SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING FURTHER NORTH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED UPON DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING
NORTH OF THE BORDER. CLOUD COVER WITH THIS HAS ALSO BEEN
ADDRESSED. HAVE ALSO REMOVED FOG AS VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IS ON
TRACK AND SUPPORTED BY THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS AND INCOMING 10 UTC
HRRR. FORECAST BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. A COMPENSATORY
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WAS CONTINUING
INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WERE SEEN
RIDING THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN OVER THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...A SUSTAINING CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE AREAL
EXTENT AND TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NAM12/HRRR/RAP13 ARE HANDLING THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FAIRLY WELL EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
MONTANA IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE TAKING SHAPE THROUGH THE DAY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 EAST
CENTRAL TO 90 WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
55 TO 60.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A NOMINAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH ALL FIELDS WELL WITHIN ONE STANDARD DEVIATION OF
THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO BE IN
AGREEMENT ON DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH NEAR
ZONAL FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES PEAKING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A SLOW RELATIVE COOL DOWN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION...THERE IS A NEAR DAILY
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH MULTIPLE LOW PREDICTABILITY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONING TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN -SHRA AND VCTS AT
KISN THROUGH 15Z...AND MENTION A VCSH AT KDIK THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KDIK. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. PATCHY FOG AT KJMS STILL POSSIBLE AND WILL
KEEP THE VCFG THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 311355
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
855 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MORNING UPDATE ADDRESSES SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING FURTHER NORTH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BASED UPON DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING
NORTH OF THE BORDER. CLOUD COVER WITH THIS HAS ALSO BEEN
ADDRESSED. HAVE ALSO REMOVED FOG AS VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IS ON
TRACK AND SUPPORTED BY THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS AND INCOMING 10 UTC
HRRR. FORECAST BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. A COMPENSATORY
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WAS CONTINUING
INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WERE SEEN
RIDING THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN OVER THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...A SUSTAINING CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE AREAL
EXTENT AND TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NAM12/HRRR/RAP13 ARE HANDLING THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FAIRLY WELL EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
MONTANA IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE TAKING SHAPE THROUGH THE DAY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 EAST
CENTRAL TO 90 WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
55 TO 60.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A NOMINAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH ALL FIELDS WELL WITHIN ONE STANDARD DEVIATION OF
THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO BE IN
AGREEMENT ON DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH NEAR
ZONAL FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES PEAKING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A SLOW RELATIVE COOL DOWN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION...THERE IS A NEAR DAILY
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH MULTIPLE LOW PREDICTABILITY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONING TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN -SHRA AND VCTS AT
KISN THROUGH 15Z...AND MENTION A VCSH AT KDIK THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KDIK. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. PATCHY FOG AT KJMS STILL POSSIBLE AND WILL
KEEP THE VCFG THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 311137
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IS ON
TRACK AND SUPPORTED BY THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS AND INCOMING 10 UTC
HRRR. FORECAST BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. A COMPENSATORY
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WAS CONTINUING
INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WERE SEEN
RIDING THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN OVER THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...A SUSTAINING CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE AREAL
EXTENT AND TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NAM12/HRRR/RAP13 ARE HANDLING THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FAIRLY WELL EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
MONTANA IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE TAKING SHAPE THROUGH THE DAY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 EAST
CENTRAL TO 90 WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
55 TO 60.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A NOMINAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH ALL FIELDS WELL WITHIN ONE STANDARD DEVIATION OF
THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO BE IN
AGREEMENT ON DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH NEAR
ZONAL FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES PEAKING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A SLOW RELATIVE COOL DOWN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION...THERE IS A NEAR DAILY
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH MULTIPLE LOW PREDICTABILITY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONING TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN -SHRA AND VCTS AT
KISN THROUGH 15Z...AND MENTION A VCSH AT KDIK THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KDIK. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. PATCHY FOG AT KJMS STILL POSSIBLE AND WILL
KEEP THE VCFG THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 311137
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IS ON
TRACK AND SUPPORTED BY THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS AND INCOMING 10 UTC
HRRR. FORECAST BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. A COMPENSATORY
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WAS CONTINUING
INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WERE SEEN
RIDING THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN OVER THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...A SUSTAINING CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE AREAL
EXTENT AND TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NAM12/HRRR/RAP13 ARE HANDLING THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FAIRLY WELL EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
MONTANA IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE TAKING SHAPE THROUGH THE DAY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 EAST
CENTRAL TO 90 WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
55 TO 60.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A NOMINAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH ALL FIELDS WELL WITHIN ONE STANDARD DEVIATION OF
THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO BE IN
AGREEMENT ON DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH NEAR
ZONAL FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES PEAKING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A SLOW RELATIVE COOL DOWN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION...THERE IS A NEAR DAILY
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH MULTIPLE LOW PREDICTABILITY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONING TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN -SHRA AND VCTS AT
KISN THROUGH 15Z...AND MENTION A VCSH AT KDIK THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KDIK. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. PATCHY FOG AT KJMS STILL POSSIBLE AND WILL
KEEP THE VCFG THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 310748
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
248 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. A COMPENSATORY
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WAS CONTINUING
INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WERE SEEN
RIDING THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN OVER THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...A SUSTAINING CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE AREAL
EXTENT AND TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NAM12/HRRR/RAP13 ARE HANDLING THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FAIRLY WELL EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
MONTANA IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE TAKING SHAPE THROUGH THE DAY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 EAST
CENTRAL TO 90 WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
55 TO 60.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A NOMINAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH ALL FIELDS WELL WITHIN ONE STANDARD DEVIATION OF
THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO BE IN
AGREEMENT ON DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH NEAR
ZONAL FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES PEAKING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A SLOW RELATIVE COOL DOWN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION...THERE IS A NEAR DAILY
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH MULTIPLE LOW PREDICTABILITY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONING TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PREDOMINANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT KISN/KDIK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z AND THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED. VFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH
VCFG AT KJMS THROUGH 13Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KISN/KDIK/KMOT. DUE TO THE TIMING AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY VCSH/VCTS UNTIL SOMETHING DEVELOPS THAT CAN BE TRACKED TO
IMPACT THE ABOVE MENTIONED TERMINALS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 310432
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1132 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTIONED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 04Z AND 05Z...AND
THIS IS RIGHT ON TRACK. FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE FOLLOWED THE NAM12/HRRR
AND RAP13 WHICH INDICATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THEN SHIFTING SOUTH TO
NEAR KDIK BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z. HAVE INCREASED POPS BASED ON
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PER LOCAL/REGIONAL
RADAR AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST 01 UTC
HRRR IS SHOWING THIS CONVECTION DROPPING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN 04-05 UTC THEN BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT DROPS
SOUTHEAST TOWARD DICKINSON...AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. PREVIOUS
POPS HAD THIS HANDLED WELL. ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE
SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER. INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST WV SATELLITE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN BORDER DROPPING DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS VERY SPOTTY AND BASICALLY
REMAINS NORTH OF A WEYBURN TO BRANDON LINE. THUS ELIMINATED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DID
KEEP SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST MID-LATE
EVENING...THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WORKING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SIMILAR SETUP TO
LAST NIGHT...THUS ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ON THE WEST SIDE OF WINNIPEG IS IN PHASE WITH ANOTHER WAVE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEAR REGINA. ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN HAVE
DISSIPATED...SO THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE DESPITE AGREEMENT THAT THE HIRES
NMM AND ARW/HRRR ALL INITIATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THAT WAVE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

CLOUD COVER WAS ALSO INCREASED TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS OF LATE MORNING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON MIDDLE LATITUDE
WEATHER AS WEAK SUBTROPICAL FLOW OVER CONUS WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE 12 UTC ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL/GFS
AND 06 UTC GEFS SUGGEST THAT ASSORTED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTICES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW...SO LOW CONFIDENCE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAILY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

HAVE INTRODUCED PREDOMINANT THUNDERSTORMS INTO KISN OVERNIGHT
GRADUALLY WANING BY 12Z. WILL MENTION A VCTS AT KDIK BETWEEN 09Z AND
11Z AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY FOR PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH FROM KISN THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH A VCFG AT KJMS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 310432
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1132 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTIONED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 04Z AND 05Z...AND
THIS IS RIGHT ON TRACK. FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE FOLLOWED THE NAM12/HRRR
AND RAP13 WHICH INDICATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THEN SHIFTING SOUTH TO
NEAR KDIK BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z. HAVE INCREASED POPS BASED ON
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PER LOCAL/REGIONAL
RADAR AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST 01 UTC
HRRR IS SHOWING THIS CONVECTION DROPPING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN 04-05 UTC THEN BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT DROPS
SOUTHEAST TOWARD DICKINSON...AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. PREVIOUS
POPS HAD THIS HANDLED WELL. ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE
SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER. INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST WV SATELLITE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN BORDER DROPPING DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS VERY SPOTTY AND BASICALLY
REMAINS NORTH OF A WEYBURN TO BRANDON LINE. THUS ELIMINATED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DID
KEEP SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST MID-LATE
EVENING...THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WORKING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SIMILAR SETUP TO
LAST NIGHT...THUS ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ON THE WEST SIDE OF WINNIPEG IS IN PHASE WITH ANOTHER WAVE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEAR REGINA. ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN HAVE
DISSIPATED...SO THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE DESPITE AGREEMENT THAT THE HIRES
NMM AND ARW/HRRR ALL INITIATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THAT WAVE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

CLOUD COVER WAS ALSO INCREASED TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS OF LATE MORNING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON MIDDLE LATITUDE
WEATHER AS WEAK SUBTROPICAL FLOW OVER CONUS WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE 12 UTC ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL/GFS
AND 06 UTC GEFS SUGGEST THAT ASSORTED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTICES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW...SO LOW CONFIDENCE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAILY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

HAVE INTRODUCED PREDOMINANT THUNDERSTORMS INTO KISN OVERNIGHT
GRADUALLY WANING BY 12Z. WILL MENTION A VCTS AT KDIK BETWEEN 09Z AND
11Z AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY FOR PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH FROM KISN THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH A VCFG AT KJMS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 310256
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST 01 UTC
HRRR IS SHOWING THIS CONVECTION DROPPING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN 04-05 UTC THEN BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT DROPS
SOUTHEAST TOWARD DICKINSON...AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. PREVIOUS
POPS HAD THIS HANDLED WELL. ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE
SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER. INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST WV SATELLITE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN BORDER DROPPING DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS VERY SPOTTY AND BASICALLY
REMAINS NORTH OF A WEYBURN TO BRANDON LINE. THUS ELIMINATED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DID
KEEP SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST MID-LATE
EVENING...THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WORKING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SIMILAR SETUP TO
LAST NIGHT...THUS ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ON THE WEST SIDE OF WINNIPEG IS IN PHASE WITH ANOTHER WAVE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEAR REGINA. ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN HAVE
DISSIPATED...SO THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE DESPITE AGREEMENT THAT THE HIRES
NMM AND ARW/HRRR ALL INITIATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THAT WAVE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

CLOUD COVER WAS ALSO INCREASED TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS OF LATE MORNING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON MIDDLE LATITUDE
WEATHER AS WEAK SUBTROPICAL FLOW OVER CONUS WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE 12 UTC ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL/GFS
AND 06 UTC GEFS SUGGEST THAT ASSORTED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTICES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW...SO LOW CONFIDENCE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAILY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN FOR A POSSIBLE ADDITION OF THUNDER TO THE WILLISTON
06Z TAF. BY THIS TIME WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER UNTIL IT REACHES KDIK AND POSSIBLY
KMOT AND KBIS. UNTIL THEN NO CHANGES WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WILL
KEEP A VCFG AT KBIS AND KJMS 09-13 UTC.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 310256
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST 01 UTC
HRRR IS SHOWING THIS CONVECTION DROPPING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN 04-05 UTC THEN BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT DROPS
SOUTHEAST TOWARD DICKINSON...AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. PREVIOUS
POPS HAD THIS HANDLED WELL. ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE
SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER. INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST WV SATELLITE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN BORDER DROPPING DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS VERY SPOTTY AND BASICALLY
REMAINS NORTH OF A WEYBURN TO BRANDON LINE. THUS ELIMINATED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DID
KEEP SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST MID-LATE
EVENING...THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WORKING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SIMILAR SETUP TO
LAST NIGHT...THUS ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ON THE WEST SIDE OF WINNIPEG IS IN PHASE WITH ANOTHER WAVE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEAR REGINA. ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN HAVE
DISSIPATED...SO THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE DESPITE AGREEMENT THAT THE HIRES
NMM AND ARW/HRRR ALL INITIATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THAT WAVE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

CLOUD COVER WAS ALSO INCREASED TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS OF LATE MORNING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON MIDDLE LATITUDE
WEATHER AS WEAK SUBTROPICAL FLOW OVER CONUS WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE 12 UTC ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL/GFS
AND 06 UTC GEFS SUGGEST THAT ASSORTED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTICES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW...SO LOW CONFIDENCE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAILY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN FOR A POSSIBLE ADDITION OF THUNDER TO THE WILLISTON
06Z TAF. BY THIS TIME WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER UNTIL IT REACHES KDIK AND POSSIBLY
KMOT AND KBIS. UNTIL THEN NO CHANGES WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WILL
KEEP A VCFG AT KBIS AND KJMS 09-13 UTC.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 302351
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
651 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST WV SATELLITE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN BORDER DROPPING DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS VERY SPOTTY AND BASICALLY
REMAINS NORTH OF A WEYBURN TO BRANDON LINE. THUS ELIMINATED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DID
KEEP SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST MID-LATE
EVENING...THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
WORKING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SIMILAR SETUP TO
LAST NIGHT...THUS ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ON THE WEST SIDE OF WINNIPEG IS IN PHASE WITH ANOTHER WAVE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEAR REGINA. ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN HAVE
DISSIPATED...SO THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE DESPITE AGREEMENT THAT THE HIRES
NMM AND ARW/HRRR ALL INITIATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THAT WAVE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

CLOUD COVER WAS ALSO INCREASED TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS OF LATE MORNING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON MIDDLE LATITUDE
WEATHER AS WEAK SUBTROPICAL FLOW OVER CONUS WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE 12 UTC ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL/GFS
AND 06 UTC GEFS SUGGEST THAT ASSORTED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTICES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW...SO LOW CONFIDENCE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAILY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER WE COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF PATCHY FOG AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING FROM AROUND 09-13 UTC. ADDED A VCFG AT KBIS AND KJMS WHICH
SHOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW AT 10 KTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 302105
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
405 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ON THE WEST SIDE OF WINNIPEG IS IN PHASE WITH ANOTHER WAVE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEAR REGINA. ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN HAVE
DISSIPATED...SO THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE DESPITE AGREEMENT THAT THE HIRES
NMM AND ARW/HRRR ALL INITIATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THAT WAVE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

CLOUD COVER WAS ALSO INCREASED TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS OF LATE MORNING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON MIDDLE LATITUDE
WEATHER AS WEAK SUBTROPICAL FLOW OVER CONUS WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE 12 UTC ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL/GFS
AND 06 UTC GEFS SUGGEST THAT ASSORTED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTICES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW...SO LOW CONFIDENCE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAILY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KISN/KMOT/KBIS TODAY. AREAL COVERAGE IS MUCH TOO
SMALL TO INDICATE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KISN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...SCHECK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 302105
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
405 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ON THE WEST SIDE OF WINNIPEG IS IN PHASE WITH ANOTHER WAVE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEAR REGINA. ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN HAVE
DISSIPATED...SO THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE DESPITE AGREEMENT THAT THE HIRES
NMM AND ARW/HRRR ALL INITIATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THAT WAVE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

CLOUD COVER WAS ALSO INCREASED TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS OF LATE MORNING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON MIDDLE LATITUDE
WEATHER AS WEAK SUBTROPICAL FLOW OVER CONUS WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE 12 UTC ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL/GFS
AND 06 UTC GEFS SUGGEST THAT ASSORTED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTICES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW...SO LOW CONFIDENCE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAILY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KISN/KMOT/KBIS TODAY. AREAL COVERAGE IS MUCH TOO
SMALL TO INDICATE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KISN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...SCHECK








000
FXUS63 KBIS 301758
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1258 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELD IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REQUIRED INCREASING SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE FROM REGINA TO WINNIPEG SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALREADY FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE AREA SO HAVE
REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE FORECAST AND DROPPED THE ADVISORY. AS
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW WAVE SLIDING DOWN THROUGH N/NEWLY FLOW NEAR THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. THEREFORE...EXPECT A SCENARIO SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS/WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDED AS OF 1130 UTC AS
VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS ARE OF GREATEST COVERAGE
NORTH OF ND HIGHWAY 200.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE
WILL BE COMMON ALONG...NORTH...AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH
MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ONCE AGAIN
INVIGORATE THE NEED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION
TODAY. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THIS. HAVE
DECIDED TO POPULATE THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WITH
ISOLATED POPS...AND ALSO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL.

FOR THE NEAR TERM EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS THROUGH
15Z.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
JUST EAST OF PRINCE ALBERT SASKATCHEWAN...SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS A REFLECTION OF
THIS IN THE 700MB-500MB VORTICITY LAYER. THIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z THURSDAY.
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON RESIDING FROM KISN TO KMOT AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRAJECTORY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
PER GFS 700MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR AND ECMWF FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE OPTED TO FILL IN AN AREA ESSENTIALLY
FROM GARRISON TO BISMARCK..AND SOUTH TO THE BORDER WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

850MB TEMPS WARMING BY ANOTHER 1C TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THUS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S WEST TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED THE NAM WHICH MOVES A WARM FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND...TRENDING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY SLOWLY
DE-AMPLIFYING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RESULTING BROADER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY...BECOMING NEAR ZONAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
SATURDAY...COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. IN
REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVES AND
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN FORECAST ZONAL FLOW PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY. WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KISN/KMOT/KBIS TODAY. AREAL COVERAGE
IS TOO SMALL TO INDICATE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KISN...HOWEVER.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...SCHECK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 301758
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1258 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELD IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REQUIRED INCREASING SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE FROM REGINA TO WINNIPEG SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALREADY FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE AREA SO HAVE
REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE FORECAST AND DROPPED THE ADVISORY. AS
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW WAVE SLIDING DOWN THROUGH N/NEWLY FLOW NEAR THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. THEREFORE...EXPECT A SCENARIO SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS/WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDED AS OF 1130 UTC AS
VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS ARE OF GREATEST COVERAGE
NORTH OF ND HIGHWAY 200.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE
WILL BE COMMON ALONG...NORTH...AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH
MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ONCE AGAIN
INVIGORATE THE NEED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION
TODAY. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THIS. HAVE
DECIDED TO POPULATE THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WITH
ISOLATED POPS...AND ALSO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL.

FOR THE NEAR TERM EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS THROUGH
15Z.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
JUST EAST OF PRINCE ALBERT SASKATCHEWAN...SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS A REFLECTION OF
THIS IN THE 700MB-500MB VORTICITY LAYER. THIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z THURSDAY.
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON RESIDING FROM KISN TO KMOT AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRAJECTORY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
PER GFS 700MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR AND ECMWF FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE OPTED TO FILL IN AN AREA ESSENTIALLY
FROM GARRISON TO BISMARCK..AND SOUTH TO THE BORDER WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

850MB TEMPS WARMING BY ANOTHER 1C TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THUS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S WEST TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED THE NAM WHICH MOVES A WARM FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND...TRENDING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY SLOWLY
DE-AMPLIFYING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RESULTING BROADER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY...BECOMING NEAR ZONAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
SATURDAY...COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. IN
REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVES AND
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN FORECAST ZONAL FLOW PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY. WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KISN/KMOT/KBIS TODAY. AREAL COVERAGE
IS TOO SMALL TO INDICATE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KISN...HOWEVER.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...SCHECK








000
FXUS63 KBIS 301439
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
939 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE AREA SO HAVE
REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE FORECAST AND DROPPED THE ADVISORY. AS
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGRY
CONTINUES TO SHOW WAVE SLIDING DOWN THROUGH N/NWRLY FLOW NEAR THE
SASKACHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. THERFORE...EXPECT A SCENARIO SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS/WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDED AS OF 1130 UTC AS
VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS ARE OF GREATEST COVERAGE
NORTH OF ND HIGHWAY 200.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE
WILL BE COMMON ALONG...NORTH...AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH
MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ONCE AGAIN
INVIGORATE THE NEED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION
TODAY. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THIS. HAVE
DECIDED TO POPULATE THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WITH
ISOLATED POPS...AND ALSO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL.

FOR THE NEAR TERM EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS THROUGH
15Z.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
JUST EAST OF PRINCE ALBERT SASKATCHEWAN...SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS A REFLECTION OF
THIS IN THE 700MB-500MB VORTICITY LAYER. THIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z THURSDAY.
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON RESIDING FROM KISN TO KMOT AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRAJECTORY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
PER GFS 700MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR AND ECMWF FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE OPTED TO FILL IN AN AREA ESSENTIALLY
FROM GARRISON TO BISMARCK..AND SOUTH TO THE BORDER WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

850MB TEMPS WARMING BY ANOTHER 1C TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THUS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S WEST TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED THE NAM WHICH MOVES A WARM FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND...TRENDING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY SLOWLY
DE-AMPLIFYING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RESULTING BROADER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY...BECOMING NEAR ZONAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
SATURDAY...COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. IN
REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVES AND
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN FORECAST ZONAL FLOW PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO A BRIEF
IFR VSBY AT KDIK/KISN. WILL MENTION VCFG AT THE REMAINING
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LIGHT WINDS NEXT
24HR. KISN/KMOT/KBIS WILL BE IN LINE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY...BUT DUE TO THE SMALL AREAL COVERAGE
AND UNKNOWN TIMING...HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION ANY VCSH/VCTS UNTIL
SOMETHING DEFINITIVE DEVELOPS. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...EXPECT A VCTS
AT KISN.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 301439
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
939 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE AREA SO HAVE
REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE FORECAST AND DROPPED THE ADVISORY. AS
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGRY
CONTINUES TO SHOW WAVE SLIDING DOWN THROUGH N/NWRLY FLOW NEAR THE
SASKACHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. THERFORE...EXPECT A SCENARIO SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS/WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDED AS OF 1130 UTC AS
VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS ARE OF GREATEST COVERAGE
NORTH OF ND HIGHWAY 200.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE
WILL BE COMMON ALONG...NORTH...AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH
MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ONCE AGAIN
INVIGORATE THE NEED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION
TODAY. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THIS. HAVE
DECIDED TO POPULATE THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WITH
ISOLATED POPS...AND ALSO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL.

FOR THE NEAR TERM EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS THROUGH
15Z.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
JUST EAST OF PRINCE ALBERT SASKATCHEWAN...SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS A REFLECTION OF
THIS IN THE 700MB-500MB VORTICITY LAYER. THIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z THURSDAY.
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON RESIDING FROM KISN TO KMOT AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRAJECTORY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
PER GFS 700MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR AND ECMWF FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE OPTED TO FILL IN AN AREA ESSENTIALLY
FROM GARRISON TO BISMARCK..AND SOUTH TO THE BORDER WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

850MB TEMPS WARMING BY ANOTHER 1C TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THUS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S WEST TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED THE NAM WHICH MOVES A WARM FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND...TRENDING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY SLOWLY
DE-AMPLIFYING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RESULTING BROADER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY...BECOMING NEAR ZONAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
SATURDAY...COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. IN
REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVES AND
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN FORECAST ZONAL FLOW PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO A BRIEF
IFR VSBY AT KDIK/KISN. WILL MENTION VCFG AT THE REMAINING
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LIGHT WINDS NEXT
24HR. KISN/KMOT/KBIS WILL BE IN LINE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY...BUT DUE TO THE SMALL AREAL COVERAGE
AND UNKNOWN TIMING...HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION ANY VCSH/VCTS UNTIL
SOMETHING DEFINITIVE DEVELOPS. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...EXPECT A VCTS
AT KISN.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 301130
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDED AS OF 1130 UTC AS
VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS ARE OF GREATEST COVERAGE
NORTH OF ND HIGHWAY 200.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE
WILL BE COMMON ALONG...NORTH...AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH
MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ONCE AGAIN
INVIGORATE THE NEED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION
TODAY. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THIS. HAVE
DECIDED TO POPULATE THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WITH
ISOLATED POPS...AND ALSO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL.

FOR THE NEAR TERM EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS THROUGH
15Z.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
JUST EAST OF PRINCE ALBERT SASKATCHEWAN...SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS A REFLECTION OF
THIS IN THE 700MB-500MB VORTICITY LAYER. THIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z THURSDAY.
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON RESIDING FROM KISN TO KMOT AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRAJECTORY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
PER GFS 700MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR AND ECMWF FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE OPTED TO FILL IN AN AREA ESSENTIALLY
FROM GARRISON TO BISMARCK..AND SOUTH TO THE BORDER WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

850MB TEMPS WARMING BY ANOTHER 1C TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THUS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S WEST TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED THE NAM WHICH MOVES A WARM FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND...TRENDING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY SLOWLY
DE-AMPLIFYING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RESULTING BROADER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY...BECOMING NEAR ZONAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
SATURDAY...COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. IN
REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVES AND
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN FORECAST ZONAL FLOW PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO A BRIEF
IFR VSBY AT KDIK/KISN. WILL MENTION VCFG AT THE REMAINING
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LIGHT WINDS NEXT
24HR. KISN/KMOT/KBIS WILL BE IN LINE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY...BUT DUE TO THE SMALL AREAL COVERAGE
AND UNKNOWN TIMING...HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION ANY VCSH/VCTS UNTIL
SOMETHING DEFINITIVE DEVELOPS. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...EXPECT A VCTS
AT KISN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 301130
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDED AS OF 1130 UTC AS
VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS ARE OF GREATEST COVERAGE
NORTH OF ND HIGHWAY 200.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE
WILL BE COMMON ALONG...NORTH...AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH
MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ONCE AGAIN
INVIGORATE THE NEED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION
TODAY. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THIS. HAVE
DECIDED TO POPULATE THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WITH
ISOLATED POPS...AND ALSO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL.

FOR THE NEAR TERM EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS THROUGH
15Z.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
JUST EAST OF PRINCE ALBERT SASKATCHEWAN...SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS A REFLECTION OF
THIS IN THE 700MB-500MB VORTICITY LAYER. THIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z THURSDAY.
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON RESIDING FROM KISN TO KMOT AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRAJECTORY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
PER GFS 700MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR AND ECMWF FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE OPTED TO FILL IN AN AREA ESSENTIALLY
FROM GARRISON TO BISMARCK..AND SOUTH TO THE BORDER WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

850MB TEMPS WARMING BY ANOTHER 1C TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THUS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S WEST TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED THE NAM WHICH MOVES A WARM FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND...TRENDING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY SLOWLY
DE-AMPLIFYING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RESULTING BROADER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY...BECOMING NEAR ZONAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
SATURDAY...COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. IN
REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVES AND
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN FORECAST ZONAL FLOW PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO A BRIEF
IFR VSBY AT KDIK/KISN. WILL MENTION VCFG AT THE REMAINING
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LIGHT WINDS NEXT
24HR. KISN/KMOT/KBIS WILL BE IN LINE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY...BUT DUE TO THE SMALL AREAL COVERAGE
AND UNKNOWN TIMING...HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION ANY VCSH/VCTS UNTIL
SOMETHING DEFINITIVE DEVELOPS. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...EXPECT A VCTS
AT KISN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 301013
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
513 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE
WILL BE COMMON ALONG...NORTH...AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH
MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ONCE AGAIN
INVIGORATE THE NEED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION
TODAY. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THIS. HAVE
DECIDED TO POPULATE THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WITH
ISOLATED POPS...AND ALSO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL.

FOR THE NEAR TERM EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS THROUGH
15Z.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
JUST EAST OF PRINCE ALBERT SASKATCHEWAN...SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS A REFLECTION OF
THIS IN THE 700MB-500MB VORTICITY LAYER. THIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z THURSDAY.
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON RESIDING FROM KISN TO KMOT AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRAJECTORY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
PER GFS 700MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR AND ECMWF FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE OPTED TO FILL IN AN AREA ESSENTIALLY
FROM GARRISON TO BISMARCK..AND SOUTH TO THE BORDER WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

850MB TEMPS WARMING BY ANOTHER 1C TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THUS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S WEST TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED THE NAM WHICH MOVES A WARM FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND...TRENDING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY SLOWLY
DE-AMPLIFYING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RESULTING BROADER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY...BECOMING NEAR ZONAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
SATURDAY...COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. IN
REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVES AND
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN FORECAST ZONAL FLOW PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z BUT AT THIS TIME IT SHOULD
REMAIN SHALLOW AND NOT REDUCE VSBYS BELOW 6SM. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LIGHT WINDS NEXT 24HR. KISN/KMOT/KBIS WILL BE
IN LINE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY...BUT DUE TO THE
SMALL AREAL COVERAGE AND UNKNOWN TIMING...HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION
ANY VCSH/VCTS UNTIL SOMETHING DEFINITIVE DEVELOPS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 301013
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
513 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE
WILL BE COMMON ALONG...NORTH...AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH
MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ONCE AGAIN
INVIGORATE THE NEED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION
TODAY. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THIS. HAVE
DECIDED TO POPULATE THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WITH
ISOLATED POPS...AND ALSO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL.

FOR THE NEAR TERM EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS THROUGH
15Z.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
JUST EAST OF PRINCE ALBERT SASKATCHEWAN...SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS A REFLECTION OF
THIS IN THE 700MB-500MB VORTICITY LAYER. THIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z THURSDAY.
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON RESIDING FROM KISN TO KMOT AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRAJECTORY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
PER GFS 700MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR AND ECMWF FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE OPTED TO FILL IN AN AREA ESSENTIALLY
FROM GARRISON TO BISMARCK..AND SOUTH TO THE BORDER WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

850MB TEMPS WARMING BY ANOTHER 1C TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THUS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S WEST TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED THE NAM WHICH MOVES A WARM FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND...TRENDING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY SLOWLY
DE-AMPLIFYING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RESULTING BROADER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY...BECOMING NEAR ZONAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
SATURDAY...COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. IN
REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVES AND
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN FORECAST ZONAL FLOW PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z BUT AT THIS TIME IT SHOULD
REMAIN SHALLOW AND NOT REDUCE VSBYS BELOW 6SM. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LIGHT WINDS NEXT 24HR. KISN/KMOT/KBIS WILL BE
IN LINE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY...BUT DUE TO THE
SMALL AREAL COVERAGE AND UNKNOWN TIMING...HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION
ANY VCSH/VCTS UNTIL SOMETHING DEFINITIVE DEVELOPS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300756
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
256 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ONCE AGAIN
INVIGORATE THE NEED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION
TODAY. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THIS. HAVE
DECIDED TO POPULATE THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WITH
ISOLATED POPS...AND ALSO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL.

FOR THE NEAR TERM EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS THROUGH
15Z.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
JUST EAST OF PRINCE ALBERT SASKATCHEWAN...SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS A REFLECTION OF
THIS IN THE 700MB-500MB VORTICITY LAYER. THIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z THURSDAY.
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON RESIDING FROM KISN TO KMOT AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRAJECTORY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
PER GFS 700MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR AND ECMWF FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE OPTED TO FILL IN AN AREA ESSENTIALLY
FROM GARRISON TO BISMARCK..AND SOUTH TO THE BORDER WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

850MB TEMPS WARMING BY ANOTHER 1C TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THUS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S WEST TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED THE NAM WHICH MOVES A WARM FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND...TRENDING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY SLOWLY
DE-AMPLIFYING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RESULTING BROADER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY...BECOMING NEAR ZONAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
SATURDAY...COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. IN
REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVES AND
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN FORECAST ZONAL FLOW PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z BUT AT THIS TIME IT SHOULD
REMAIN SHALLOW AND NOT REDUCE VSBYS BELOW 6SM. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LIGHT WINDS NEXT 24HR. KISN/KMOT/KBIS WILL BE
IN LINE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY...BUT DUE TO THE
SMALL AREAL COVERAGE AND UNKNOWN TIMING...HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION
ANY VCSH/VCTS UNTIL SOMETHING DEFINITIVE DEVELOPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS










000
FXUS63 KBIS 300756
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
256 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ONCE AGAIN
INVIGORATE THE NEED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION
TODAY. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THIS. HAVE
DECIDED TO POPULATE THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WITH
ISOLATED POPS...AND ALSO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL.

FOR THE NEAR TERM EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS THROUGH
15Z.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
JUST EAST OF PRINCE ALBERT SASKATCHEWAN...SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS A REFLECTION OF
THIS IN THE 700MB-500MB VORTICITY LAYER. THIS IS FORECAST TO REACH
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z THURSDAY.
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE/SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON RESIDING FROM KISN TO KMOT AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRAJECTORY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
PER GFS 700MB HEIGHT FIELD WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR AND ECMWF FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE OPTED TO FILL IN AN AREA ESSENTIALLY
FROM GARRISON TO BISMARCK..AND SOUTH TO THE BORDER WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

850MB TEMPS WARMING BY ANOTHER 1C TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
ABOUT 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THUS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S WEST TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED THE NAM WHICH MOVES A WARM FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND...TRENDING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY SLOWLY
DE-AMPLIFYING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RESULTING BROADER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY...BECOMING NEAR ZONAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
SATURDAY...COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. IN
REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVES AND
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN FORECAST ZONAL FLOW PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z BUT AT THIS TIME IT SHOULD
REMAIN SHALLOW AND NOT REDUCE VSBYS BELOW 6SM. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LIGHT WINDS NEXT 24HR. KISN/KMOT/KBIS WILL BE
IN LINE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY...BUT DUE TO THE
SMALL AREAL COVERAGE AND UNKNOWN TIMING...HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION
ANY VCSH/VCTS UNTIL SOMETHING DEFINITIVE DEVELOPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 300501
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1201 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LOCAL RADAR SHOWS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THE EXCEPTION IS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSIST IN
SOUTHEASTERN SIOUX COUNTY. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND EXIT
AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE PRODUCING THESE SHOWERS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE GRIDS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS AT OR NEAR ZERO ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS. NEXT FEATURE TO CONTEND WITH IS A SHORTWAVE JUST NORTH
OF PRINCE ALBERT SASKATCHEWAN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS IS FORECAST TO SLIDE NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS MID/LATE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTEMPLATE ADDING IN SOME MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE COMES IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DISSIPATING SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL SIOUX COUNTY.
ALSO A COUPLE OF SHOWERS FIRED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS PAST
HOUR NEAR SHERWOOD AND MOHALL. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A SHOWER
THESE AREAS THROUGH 10 PM CDT. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH FROM SASKATCHEWAN. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND COULD BE
SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS SO WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT
SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH BUT DID EXTEND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 9 PM...AND LIMITED AREA TO JUST ALONG
THE MISSOURI AND WEST...AND UP TO NEAR STANLEY. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN TO POPULATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST JUST A BIT TO
INCLUDE EASTERN PORTIONS OF STARK AND HETTINGER COUNTIES. ONE CELL
CURRENTLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST STARK COUNTY HAS SHOWN SOME
INDICATIONS OF SMALL HAIL. WILL ALSO FRESHEN UP LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD LOW
OVER JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. COMPACT LITTLE WAVE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN ALONG THE MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
NUDGING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...LITTLE WAVE
WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE CTRL PORTION OF THE
STATE...SLIDING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...SIMILAR PATTERN REMAINS WITH RIDGE WEST AND LOW
EAST KEEPING NWRLY FLOW GOING. SOME MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER
POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE TRACKING DOWN...BUT WILL HOLD DRY FOR NOW AND
LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AT SUBSEQUENT RUNS TO SEE IF IT IS
WORTH ADDING ANY POPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DRY AND MILD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT AND
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITION TO BE IMPACTED BY PROGRESSIVE RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE WEST THIS WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z BUT AT
THIS TIME IT SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW AND NOT REDUCE VSBYS BELOW 6SM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300501
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1201 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LOCAL RADAR SHOWS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THE EXCEPTION IS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSIST IN
SOUTHEASTERN SIOUX COUNTY. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND EXIT
AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE PRODUCING THESE SHOWERS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE GRIDS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS AT OR NEAR ZERO ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS. NEXT FEATURE TO CONTEND WITH IS A SHORTWAVE JUST NORTH
OF PRINCE ALBERT SASKATCHEWAN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS IS FORECAST TO SLIDE NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS MID/LATE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTEMPLATE ADDING IN SOME MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE COMES IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DISSIPATING SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL SIOUX COUNTY.
ALSO A COUPLE OF SHOWERS FIRED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS PAST
HOUR NEAR SHERWOOD AND MOHALL. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A SHOWER
THESE AREAS THROUGH 10 PM CDT. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH FROM SASKATCHEWAN. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND COULD BE
SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS SO WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT
SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH BUT DID EXTEND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 9 PM...AND LIMITED AREA TO JUST ALONG
THE MISSOURI AND WEST...AND UP TO NEAR STANLEY. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN TO POPULATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST JUST A BIT TO
INCLUDE EASTERN PORTIONS OF STARK AND HETTINGER COUNTIES. ONE CELL
CURRENTLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST STARK COUNTY HAS SHOWN SOME
INDICATIONS OF SMALL HAIL. WILL ALSO FRESHEN UP LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD LOW
OVER JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. COMPACT LITTLE WAVE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN ALONG THE MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
NUDGING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...LITTLE WAVE
WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE CTRL PORTION OF THE
STATE...SLIDING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...SIMILAR PATTERN REMAINS WITH RIDGE WEST AND LOW
EAST KEEPING NWRLY FLOW GOING. SOME MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER
POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE TRACKING DOWN...BUT WILL HOLD DRY FOR NOW AND
LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AT SUBSEQUENT RUNS TO SEE IF IT IS
WORTH ADDING ANY POPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DRY AND MILD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT AND
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITION TO BE IMPACTED BY PROGRESSIVE RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE WEST THIS WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z BUT AT
THIS TIME IT SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW AND NOT REDUCE VSBYS BELOW 6SM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 300240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DISSIPATING SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL SIOUX COUNTY.
ALSO A COUPLE OF SHOWERS FIRED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS PAST
HOUR NEAR SHERWOOD AND MOHALL. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A SHOWER
THESE AREAS THROUGH 10 PM CDT. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH FROM SASKATCHEWAN. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND COULD BE
SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS SO WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT
SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH BUT DID EXTEND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 9 PM...AND LIMITED AREA TO JUST ALONG
THE MISSOURI AND WEST...AND UP TO NEAR STANLEY. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN TO POPULATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST JUST A BIT TO
INCLUDE EASTERN PORTIONS OF STARK AND HETTINGER COUNTIES. ONE CELL
CURRENTLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST STARK COUNTY HAS SHOWN SOME
INDICATIONS OF SMALL HAIL. WILL ALSO FRESHEN UP LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD LOW
OVER JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. COMPACT LITTLE WAVE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN ALONG THE MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
NUDGING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...LITTLE WAVE
WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE CTRL PORTION OF THE
STATE...SLIDING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...SIMILAR PATTERN REMAINS WITH RIDGE WEST AND LOW
EAST KEEPING NWRLY FLOW GOING. SOME MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER
POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE TRACKING DOWN...BUT WILL HOLD DRY FOR NOW AND
LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AT SUBSEQUENT RUNS TO SEE IF IT IS
WORTH ADDING ANY POPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DRY AND MILD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT AND
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITION TO BE IMPACTED BY PROGRESSIVE RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE WEST THIS WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AND GENERALLY A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED CU FIELD BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BASES
AROUND 6-8K FEET.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 300001
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
701 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH BUT DID EXTEND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 9 PM...AND LIMITED AREA TO JUST ALONG
THE MISSOURI AND WEST...AND UP TO NEAR STANLEY. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN TO POPULATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST JUST A BIT TO
INCLUDE EASTERN PORTIONS OF STARK AND HETTINGER COUNTIES. ONE CELL
CURRENTLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST STARK COUNTY HAS SHOWN SOME
INDICATIONS OF SMALL HAIL. WILL ALSO FRESHEN UP LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD LOW
OVER JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. COMPACT LITTLE WAVE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN ALONG THE MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
NUDGING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...LITTLE WAVE
WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE CTRL PORTION OF THE
STATE...SLIDING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...SIMILAR PATTERN REMAINS WITH RIDGE WEST AND LOW
EAST KEEPING NWRLY FLOW GOING. SOME MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER
POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE TRACKING DOWN...BUT WILL HOLD DRY FOR NOW AND
LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AT SUBSEQUENT RUNS TO SEE IF IT IS
WORTH ADDING ANY POPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DRY AND MILD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT AND
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITION TO BE IMPACTED BY PROGRESSIVE RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE WEST THIS WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...AND MAINLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300001
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
701 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH BUT DID EXTEND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 9 PM...AND LIMITED AREA TO JUST ALONG
THE MISSOURI AND WEST...AND UP TO NEAR STANLEY. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN TO POPULATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST JUST A BIT TO
INCLUDE EASTERN PORTIONS OF STARK AND HETTINGER COUNTIES. ONE CELL
CURRENTLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST STARK COUNTY HAS SHOWN SOME
INDICATIONS OF SMALL HAIL. WILL ALSO FRESHEN UP LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD LOW
OVER JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. COMPACT LITTLE WAVE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN ALONG THE MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
NUDGING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...LITTLE WAVE
WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE CTRL PORTION OF THE
STATE...SLIDING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...SIMILAR PATTERN REMAINS WITH RIDGE WEST AND LOW
EAST KEEPING NWRLY FLOW GOING. SOME MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER
POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE TRACKING DOWN...BUT WILL HOLD DRY FOR NOW AND
LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AT SUBSEQUENT RUNS TO SEE IF IT IS
WORTH ADDING ANY POPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DRY AND MILD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT AND
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITION TO BE IMPACTED BY PROGRESSIVE RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE WEST THIS WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...AND MAINLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 292238
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
538 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST JUST A BIT TO
INCLUDE EASTERN PORTIONS OF STARK AND HETTINGER COUNTIES. ONE CELL
CURRENTLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST STARK COUNTY HAS SHOWN SOME
INDICATIONS OF SMALL HAIL. WILL ALSO FRESHEN UP LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD LOW
OVER JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. COMPACT LITTLE WAVE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN ALONG THE MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
NUDGING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...LITTLE WAVE
WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE CTRL PORTION OF THE
STATE...SLIDING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...SIMILAR PATTERN REMAINS WITH RIDGE WEST AND LOW
EAST KEEPING NWRLY FLOW GOING. SOME MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER
POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE TRACKING DOWN...BUT WILL HOLD DRY FOR NOW AND
LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AT SUBSEQUENT RUNS TO SEE IF IT IS
WORTH ADDING ANY POPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DRY AND MILD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT AND
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITION TO BE IMPACTED BY PROGRESSIVE RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE WEST THIS WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ADDED A VCTS FOR BISMARCK EARLIER AND ADDED A THUNDERSTORM AT
MINOT. LOOKS LIKE THESE CAN BE CLEARED OUT. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 292238
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
538 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST JUST A BIT TO
INCLUDE EASTERN PORTIONS OF STARK AND HETTINGER COUNTIES. ONE CELL
CURRENTLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST STARK COUNTY HAS SHOWN SOME
INDICATIONS OF SMALL HAIL. WILL ALSO FRESHEN UP LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD LOW
OVER JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. COMPACT LITTLE WAVE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN ALONG THE MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
NUDGING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...LITTLE WAVE
WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE CTRL PORTION OF THE
STATE...SLIDING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...SIMILAR PATTERN REMAINS WITH RIDGE WEST AND LOW
EAST KEEPING NWRLY FLOW GOING. SOME MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER
POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE TRACKING DOWN...BUT WILL HOLD DRY FOR NOW AND
LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AT SUBSEQUENT RUNS TO SEE IF IT IS
WORTH ADDING ANY POPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DRY AND MILD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT AND
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITION TO BE IMPACTED BY PROGRESSIVE RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE WEST THIS WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ADDED A VCTS FOR BISMARCK EARLIER AND ADDED A THUNDERSTORM AT
MINOT. LOOKS LIKE THESE CAN BE CLEARED OUT. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 291952
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD LOW
OVER JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. COMPACT LITTLE WAVE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN ALONG THE MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
NUDGING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...LITTLE WAVE
WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE CTRL PORTION OF THE
STATE...SLIDING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...SIMILAR PATTERN REMAINS WITH RIDGE WEST AND LOW
EAST KEEPING NWRLY FLOW GOING. SOME MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER
POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE TRACKING DOWN...BUT WILL HOLD DRY FOR NOW AND
LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AT SUBSEQUENT RUNS TO SEE IF IT IS
WORTH ADDING ANY POPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DRY AND MILD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT AND
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITION TO BE IMPACTED BY PROGRESSIVE RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE WEST THIS WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS










000
FXUS63 KBIS 291952
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD LOW
OVER JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. COMPACT LITTLE WAVE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN ALONG THE MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
NUDGING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...LITTLE WAVE
WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE CTRL PORTION OF THE
STATE...SLIDING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...SIMILAR PATTERN REMAINS WITH RIDGE WEST AND LOW
EAST KEEPING NWRLY FLOW GOING. SOME MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER
POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE TRACKING DOWN...BUT WILL HOLD DRY FOR NOW AND
LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AT SUBSEQUENT RUNS TO SEE IF IT IS
WORTH ADDING ANY POPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DRY AND MILD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT AND
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST. THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITION TO BE IMPACTED BY PROGRESSIVE RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE WEST THIS WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 291722
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1222 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS IT CONTINUES TO ADDRESS SOME LOW
PRECIP CONCERNS WITH SMALL EDDY PUSHING THROUGH UPPER FLOW
APPROACHING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADDRESS
CLOUD COVER AS CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DISTINCT EDDY SLIDING SOUTH
ALONG THE MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME PRECIP POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE...HAVE EXPANDED LOW POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS FEATURE. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC. THE 06 UTC NAM CONTINUES THE
TREND OF THE 00 UTC WRF-ARW AND NMM OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM CENTRAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DISTINCT
EDDY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER ACROSS A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH VIA A
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE AT OR NEAR ZERO WITH CALM
WINDS. FOG STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE POCKETS OF LOWER
CLOUDS AND EXPECT THIS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE UNTIL
SUNRISE...THEN DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICELY DEFINED SHORTWAVE
SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. WEAKER
SHORTWAVES WERE ALSO SEEN JUST UPSTREAM INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE 850MB TO 700MB LAYER
WILL ENSUE AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE IN THE
RANGE OF 500 TO 800 J/KG FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK...LIFTED INDICES
AROUND 0C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR AT 25KT. THE NAM AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION FROM NEAR MAX TO LINTON
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS SUPPORT ALSO FROM THE ECMWF...WHILE THE
GFS ALSO SHOWS AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BUT DOES NOT GENERATE QPF.
WILL INTRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER INTO THE GRIDS
WITH THIS FORECAST AS THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
SOMETHING DEVELOPING BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM 75F TO 85. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DE-AMPLIFY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SUPPORTS A SLOWLY WARMING TREND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER A MUCH BROADER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...COMPARED
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ARE ARE
INTRODUCED FOR THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR RIDGE RUNNING
SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 291722
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1222 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS IT CONTINUES TO ADDRESS SOME LOW
PRECIP CONCERNS WITH SMALL EDDY PUSHING THROUGH UPPER FLOW
APPROACHING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADDRESS
CLOUD COVER AS CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DISTINCT EDDY SLIDING SOUTH
ALONG THE MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME PRECIP POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE...HAVE EXPANDED LOW POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS FEATURE. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC. THE 06 UTC NAM CONTINUES THE
TREND OF THE 00 UTC WRF-ARW AND NMM OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM CENTRAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DISTINCT
EDDY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER ACROSS A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH VIA A
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE AT OR NEAR ZERO WITH CALM
WINDS. FOG STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE POCKETS OF LOWER
CLOUDS AND EXPECT THIS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE UNTIL
SUNRISE...THEN DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICELY DEFINED SHORTWAVE
SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. WEAKER
SHORTWAVES WERE ALSO SEEN JUST UPSTREAM INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE 850MB TO 700MB LAYER
WILL ENSUE AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE IN THE
RANGE OF 500 TO 800 J/KG FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK...LIFTED INDICES
AROUND 0C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR AT 25KT. THE NAM AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION FROM NEAR MAX TO LINTON
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS SUPPORT ALSO FROM THE ECMWF...WHILE THE
GFS ALSO SHOWS AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BUT DOES NOT GENERATE QPF.
WILL INTRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER INTO THE GRIDS
WITH THIS FORECAST AS THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
SOMETHING DEVELOPING BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM 75F TO 85. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DE-AMPLIFY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SUPPORTS A SLOWLY WARMING TREND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER A MUCH BROADER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...COMPARED
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ARE ARE
INTRODUCED FOR THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR RIDGE RUNNING
SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 291404
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
904 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DISTINCT EDDY SLIDING SOUTH
ALONG THE MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME PRECIP POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE...HAVE EXPANDED LOW POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS FEATURE. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC. THE 06 UTC NAM CONTINUES THE
TREND OF THE 00 UTC WRF-ARW AND NMM OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM CENTRAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DISTINCT
EDDY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER ACROSS A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH VIA A
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE AT OR NEAR ZERO WITH CALM
WINDS. FOG STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE POCKETS OF LOWER
CLOUDS AND EXPECT THIS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE UNTIL
SUNRISE...THEN DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICELY DEFINED SHORTWAVE
SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. WEAKER
SHORTWAVES WERE ALSO SEEN JUST UPSTREAM INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE 850MB TO 700MB LAYER
WILL ENSUE AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE IN THE
RANGE OF 500 TO 800 J/KG FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK...LIFTED INDICES
AROUND 0C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR AT 25KT. THE NAM AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION FROM NEAR MAX TO LINTON
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS SUPPORT ALSO FROM THE ECMWF...WHILE THE
GFS ALSO SHOWS AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BUT DOES NOT GENERATE QPF.
WILL INTRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER INTO THE GRIDS
WITH THIS FORECAST AS THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
SOMETHING DEVELOPING BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM 75F TO 85. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DE-AMPLIFY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SUPPORTS A SLOWLY WARMING TREND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER A MUCH BROADER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...COMPARED
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ARE ARE
INTRODUCED FOR THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR RIDGE RUNNING
SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCT/BKN CIGS BETWEEN 5KFT AND 10KFT CAN BE EXPECTED AT KMOT/KBIS
TUESDAY...WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS ELSEWHERE. BETWEEN 18Z TUESDAY AND 00Z
WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER EAST OF
THE KMOT AND KBIS AERODROMES...JUST A BIT TOO FAR EAST FOR A
VCSH/VCTS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 291404
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
904 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DISTINCT EDDY SLIDING SOUTH
ALONG THE MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME PRECIP POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE...HAVE EXPANDED LOW POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS FEATURE. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC. THE 06 UTC NAM CONTINUES THE
TREND OF THE 00 UTC WRF-ARW AND NMM OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM CENTRAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DISTINCT
EDDY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER ACROSS A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH VIA A
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE AT OR NEAR ZERO WITH CALM
WINDS. FOG STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE POCKETS OF LOWER
CLOUDS AND EXPECT THIS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE UNTIL
SUNRISE...THEN DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICELY DEFINED SHORTWAVE
SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. WEAKER
SHORTWAVES WERE ALSO SEEN JUST UPSTREAM INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE 850MB TO 700MB LAYER
WILL ENSUE AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE IN THE
RANGE OF 500 TO 800 J/KG FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK...LIFTED INDICES
AROUND 0C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR AT 25KT. THE NAM AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION FROM NEAR MAX TO LINTON
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS SUPPORT ALSO FROM THE ECMWF...WHILE THE
GFS ALSO SHOWS AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BUT DOES NOT GENERATE QPF.
WILL INTRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER INTO THE GRIDS
WITH THIS FORECAST AS THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
SOMETHING DEVELOPING BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM 75F TO 85. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DE-AMPLIFY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SUPPORTS A SLOWLY WARMING TREND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER A MUCH BROADER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...COMPARED
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ARE ARE
INTRODUCED FOR THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR RIDGE RUNNING
SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCT/BKN CIGS BETWEEN 5KFT AND 10KFT CAN BE EXPECTED AT KMOT/KBIS
TUESDAY...WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS ELSEWHERE. BETWEEN 18Z TUESDAY AND 00Z
WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER EAST OF
THE KMOT AND KBIS AERODROMES...JUST A BIT TOO FAR EAST FOR A
VCSH/VCTS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 291144
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
644 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC. THE 06 UTC NAM CONTINUES THE
TREND OF THE 00 UTC WRF-ARW AND NMM OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM CENTRAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DISTINCT
EDDY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER ACROSS A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH VIA A
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE AT OR NEAR ZERO WITH CALM
WINDS. FOG STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE POCKETS OF LOWER
CLOUDS AND EXPECT THIS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE UNTIL
SUNRISE...THEN DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICELY DEFINED SHORTWAVE
SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. WEAKER
SHORTWAVES WERE ALSO SEEN JUST UPSTREAM INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE 850MB TO 700MB LAYER
WILL ENSUE AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE IN THE
RANGE OF 500 TO 800 J/KG FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK...LIFTED INDICES
AROUND 0C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR AT 25KT. THE NAM AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION FROM NEAR MAX TO LINTON
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS SUPPORT ALSO FROM THE ECMWF...WHILE THE
GFS ALSO SHOWS AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BUT DOES NOT GENERATE QPF.
WILL INTRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER INTO THE GRIDS
WITH THIS FORECAST AS THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
SOMETHING DEVELOPING BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM 75F TO 85. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DE-AMPLIFY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SUPPORTS A SLOWLY WARMING TREND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER A MUCH BROADER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...COMPARED
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ARE ARE
INTRODUCED FOR THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR RIDGE RUNNING
SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCT/BKN CIGS BETWEEN 5KFT AND 10KFT CAN BE EXPECTED AT KMOT/KBIS
TUESDAY...WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS ELSEWHERE. BETWEEN 18Z TUESDAY AND 00Z
WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER EAST OF
THE KMOT AND KBIS AERODROMES...JUST A BIT TOO FAR EAST FOR A
VCSH/VCTS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 290737
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
237 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER ACROSS A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH VIA A
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE AT OR NEAR ZERO WITH CALM
WINDS. FOG STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE POCKETS OF LOWER
CLOUDS AND EXPECT THIS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE UNTIL
SUNRISE...THEN DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICELY DEFINED SHORTWAVE
SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. WEAKER
SHORTWAVES WERE ALSO SEEN JUST UPSTREAM INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE IN THE 850MB TO 700MB LAYER
WILL ENSUE AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE IN THE
RANGE OF 500 TO 800 J/KG FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK...LIFTED INDICES
AROUND 0C...AND 0-6KM SHEAR AT 25KT. THE NAM AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION FROM NEAR MAX TO LINTON
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS SUPPORT ALSO FROM THE ECMWF...WHILE THE
GFS ALSO SHOWS AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BUT DOES NOT GENERATE QPF.
WILL INTRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER INTO THE GRIDS
WITH THIS FORECAST AS THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
SOMETHING DEVELOPING BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM 75F TO 85. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DE-AMPLIFY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SUPPORTS A SLOWLY WARMING TREND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER A MUCH BROADER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...COMPARED
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ARE ARE
INTRODUCED FOR THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR RIDGE RUNNING
SHORTWAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. PATCHY FOG THROUGH 15Z MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT SCT/BKN
CIGS BETWEEN 5KFT AND 10KFT AT KMOT/KBIS. A SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER
IN THE VICINITY IS POSSIBLE FOR KBIS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS










000
FXUS63 KBIS 290506
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS CLOSING IN ON EACH OTHER. WITH
LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE SAME
TREND AS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND HAVE ADDED THIS
TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. NUDGED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS COOLEST FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 40S FORECAST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICELY DEFINED SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
NEAR LAKE WINNIPEGOSIS. THIS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 5KFT AND 10KFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE NAM EVEN GENERATES SOME MINOR
PRECIPITATION FROM MAX TO LINTON DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH. THE GFS REMAINS DRY. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AND LOOK MORE INTO THIS ONCE THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARRIVE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A TRANQUIL NIGHT FOR NORTH DAKOTA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS CURRENTLY. AN
EMBEDDED S/WV IN OUR NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...RIGHT NOW ALONG THE
BORDER OF SK/MB JUST TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN LAKE
WINNIPEGOSIS...WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH THE AM HOURS OF TUESDAY RESULTING IN A SCT-BKN
AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO ONLY
ADJUSTED HOURLY ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. BROAD AREA
OF CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE STATE.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER UP A
BIT.

ON TUESDAY...PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR WITH UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
AND LOW OVER JAMES BAY...KEEPING QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY...THOUGH STILL BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BLOCKING FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A LARGE AND PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA (HUDSON BAY LOW) AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. THIS
WILL LEAVE THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE H500 RIDGE
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS...WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY: THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
HELPING SET OFF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY: THERE IS A HINT OF THE WESTERN RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN
ON MONDAY...WITH MODELS DEPICTING MORE OF A WEST-TO-EAST ZONAL FLOW.
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE INDICATES A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY APPEAR TO BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF
LATE THIS WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. SCT/BKN CIGS BETWEEN 5KFT AND 10KFT CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KMOT/KBIS TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 290506
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS CLOSING IN ON EACH OTHER. WITH
LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE SAME
TREND AS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND HAVE ADDED THIS
TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. NUDGED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS COOLEST FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 40S FORECAST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICELY DEFINED SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
NEAR LAKE WINNIPEGOSIS. THIS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 5KFT AND 10KFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE NAM EVEN GENERATES SOME MINOR
PRECIPITATION FROM MAX TO LINTON DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH. THE GFS REMAINS DRY. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AND LOOK MORE INTO THIS ONCE THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARRIVE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A TRANQUIL NIGHT FOR NORTH DAKOTA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS CURRENTLY. AN
EMBEDDED S/WV IN OUR NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...RIGHT NOW ALONG THE
BORDER OF SK/MB JUST TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN LAKE
WINNIPEGOSIS...WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH THE AM HOURS OF TUESDAY RESULTING IN A SCT-BKN
AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO ONLY
ADJUSTED HOURLY ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. BROAD AREA
OF CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE STATE.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER UP A
BIT.

ON TUESDAY...PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR WITH UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
AND LOW OVER JAMES BAY...KEEPING QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY...THOUGH STILL BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BLOCKING FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A LARGE AND PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA (HUDSON BAY LOW) AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. THIS
WILL LEAVE THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE H500 RIDGE
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS...WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY: THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
HELPING SET OFF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY: THERE IS A HINT OF THE WESTERN RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN
ON MONDAY...WITH MODELS DEPICTING MORE OF A WEST-TO-EAST ZONAL FLOW.
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE INDICATES A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY APPEAR TO BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF
LATE THIS WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. SCT/BKN CIGS BETWEEN 5KFT AND 10KFT CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KMOT/KBIS TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 290237
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A TRANQUIL NIGHT FOR NORTH DAKOTA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS CURRENTLY. AN
EMBEDDED S/WV IN OUR NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...RIGHT NOW ALONG THE
BORDER OF SK/MB JUST TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN LAKE
WINNIPEGOSIS...WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH THE AM HOURS OF TUESDAY RESULTING IN A SCT-BKN
AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO ONLY
ADJUSTED HOURLY ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WITH RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. BROAD AREA
OF CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE STATE.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER UP A
BIT.

ON TUESDAY...PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR WITH UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
AND LOW OVER JAMES BAY...KEEPING QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY...THOUGH STILL BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BLOCKING FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A LARGE AND PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA (HUDSON BAY LOW) AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. THIS
WILL LEAVE THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE H500 RIDGE
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS...WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY: THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
HELPING SET OFF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...AND HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY: THERE IS A HINT OF THE WESTERN RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN
ON MONDAY...WITH MODELS DEPICTING MORE OF A WEST-TO-EAST ZONAL FLOW.
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE INDICATES A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY APPEAR TO BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF
LATE THIS WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OF 5000 TO 7000 FEET.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH








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