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000
FXUS63 KBIS 312252
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
552 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS
WELL. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN UPDATING THE
LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WARM SATURDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...A BLEND
WAS USED FOR MOST FIELDS WITH HIGHER WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE WARMER
EDGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY GIVEN VERIFICATION.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 90S ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A WEAK
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE FORM OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING...WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND FUELS THAT ARE NOT FULLY CURED
LIMIT THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS SHOW SOME EMBEDDED ENERGY ALOFT NEAR
THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES START OUT WARM FOR SUNDAY THEN COOL
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND PUSHES A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MATERIALIZES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
OUR FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
MOVING INTO THE ALBERTA ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY INTO
NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WED-FRI (70S TO LOW 80S) FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. THEN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY SATURDAY MORNING...SHIFTING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 312252
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
552 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS
WELL. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN UPDATING THE
LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WARM SATURDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...A BLEND
WAS USED FOR MOST FIELDS WITH HIGHER WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE WARMER
EDGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY GIVEN VERIFICATION.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 90S ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A WEAK
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE FORM OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING...WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND FUELS THAT ARE NOT FULLY CURED
LIMIT THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS SHOW SOME EMBEDDED ENERGY ALOFT NEAR
THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES START OUT WARM FOR SUNDAY THEN COOL
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND PUSHES A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MATERIALIZES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
OUR FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
MOVING INTO THE ALBERTA ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY INTO
NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WED-FRI (70S TO LOW 80S) FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. THEN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY SATURDAY MORNING...SHIFTING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 312252
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
552 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS
WELL. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN UPDATING THE
LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WARM SATURDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...A BLEND
WAS USED FOR MOST FIELDS WITH HIGHER WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE WARMER
EDGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY GIVEN VERIFICATION.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 90S ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A WEAK
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE FORM OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING...WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND FUELS THAT ARE NOT FULLY CURED
LIMIT THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS SHOW SOME EMBEDDED ENERGY ALOFT NEAR
THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES START OUT WARM FOR SUNDAY THEN COOL
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND PUSHES A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MATERIALIZES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
OUR FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
MOVING INTO THE ALBERTA ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY INTO
NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WED-FRI (70S TO LOW 80S) FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. THEN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY SATURDAY MORNING...SHIFTING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 312252
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
552 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS
WELL. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN UPDATING THE
LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WARM SATURDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...A BLEND
WAS USED FOR MOST FIELDS WITH HIGHER WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE WARMER
EDGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY GIVEN VERIFICATION.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 90S ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A WEAK
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE FORM OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING...WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND FUELS THAT ARE NOT FULLY CURED
LIMIT THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS SHOW SOME EMBEDDED ENERGY ALOFT NEAR
THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES START OUT WARM FOR SUNDAY THEN COOL
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND PUSHES A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MATERIALIZES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
OUR FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
MOVING INTO THE ALBERTA ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY INTO
NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WED-FRI (70S TO LOW 80S) FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. THEN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY SATURDAY MORNING...SHIFTING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 312001
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
301 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WARM SATURDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...A BLEND
WAS USED FOR MOST FIELDS WITH HIGHER WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE WARMER
EDGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY GIVEN VERIFICATION.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 90S ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A WEAK
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE FORM OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING...WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND FUELS THAT ARE NOT FULLY CURED
LIMIT THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS SHOW SOME EMBEDDED ENERGY ALOFT NEAR
THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES START OUT WARM FOR SUNDAY THEN COOL
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND PUSHES A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MATERIALIZES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
OUR FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
MOVING INTO THE ALBERTA ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY INTO
NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WED-FRI (70S TO LOW 80S) FOR EARLY AUGUST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 18 UTC TAF PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 312001
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
301 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WARM SATURDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...A BLEND
WAS USED FOR MOST FIELDS WITH HIGHER WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE WARMER
EDGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY GIVEN VERIFICATION.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 90S ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A WEAK
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE FORM OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING...WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND FUELS THAT ARE NOT FULLY CURED
LIMIT THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS SHOW SOME EMBEDDED ENERGY ALOFT NEAR
THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES START OUT WARM FOR SUNDAY THEN COOL
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND PUSHES A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MATERIALIZES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
OUR FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
MOVING INTO THE ALBERTA ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY INTO
NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WED-FRI (70S TO LOW 80S) FOR EARLY AUGUST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 18 UTC TAF PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD





000
FXUS63 KBIS 311753
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1253 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AND BLENDED TO THE OBSERVED
TRENDS THROUGH 17 UTC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPS/CLOUDS FOR MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO THE DAKOTAS.

TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND THE SURFACE LAYER LINKS WITH THE
MIXED LAYER ALOFT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP A BIT AS THE DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT
MIXES WITH THE SURFACE LAYER. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 85 TO
90 ALONG AND SOUTH/WEST OF THE MISSOURI...WITH LOW TO MID 80S
NORTH/EAST.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

FOR FIRE WEATHER...GRASSES CONTINUE TO CURE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL KEEP THIS TREND. WHILE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS AGAIN TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SPEEDS THAT WOULD RAISE
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE TOWARDS
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AS A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH POSSIBLY
BRINGING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST AND A VARIETY OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 18 UTC TAF PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 311115
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
615 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPS/CLOUDS FOR MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO THE DAKOTAS.

TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND THE SURFACE LAYER LINKS WITH THE
MIXED LAYER ALOFT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP A BIT AS THE DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT
MIXES WITH THE SURFACE LAYER. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 85 TO
90 ALONG AND SOUTH/WEST OF THE MISSOURI...WITH LOW TO MID 80S
NORTH/EAST.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

FOR FIRE WEATHER...GRASSES CONTINUE TO CURE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL KEEP THIS TREND. WHILE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS AGAIN TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SPEEDS THAT WOULD RAISE
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE TOWARDS
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AS A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH POSSIBLY
BRINGING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST AND A VARIETY OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST...AT AROUND 8-15
KNOTS...MAINLY AFTER 16Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 311115
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
615 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPS/CLOUDS FOR MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO THE DAKOTAS.

TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND THE SURFACE LAYER LINKS WITH THE
MIXED LAYER ALOFT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP A BIT AS THE DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT
MIXES WITH THE SURFACE LAYER. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 85 TO
90 ALONG AND SOUTH/WEST OF THE MISSOURI...WITH LOW TO MID 80S
NORTH/EAST.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

FOR FIRE WEATHER...GRASSES CONTINUE TO CURE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL KEEP THIS TREND. WHILE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS AGAIN TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SPEEDS THAT WOULD RAISE
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE TOWARDS
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AS A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH POSSIBLY
BRINGING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST AND A VARIETY OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST...AT AROUND 8-15
KNOTS...MAINLY AFTER 16Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 311115
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
615 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPS/CLOUDS FOR MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO THE DAKOTAS.

TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND THE SURFACE LAYER LINKS WITH THE
MIXED LAYER ALOFT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP A BIT AS THE DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT
MIXES WITH THE SURFACE LAYER. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 85 TO
90 ALONG AND SOUTH/WEST OF THE MISSOURI...WITH LOW TO MID 80S
NORTH/EAST.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

FOR FIRE WEATHER...GRASSES CONTINUE TO CURE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL KEEP THIS TREND. WHILE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS AGAIN TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SPEEDS THAT WOULD RAISE
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE TOWARDS
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AS A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH POSSIBLY
BRINGING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST AND A VARIETY OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST...AT AROUND 8-15
KNOTS...MAINLY AFTER 16Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 310802
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
302 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO THE DAKOTAS.

TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND THE SURFACE LAYER LINKS WITH THE
MIXED LAYER ALOFT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP A BIT AS THE DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT
MIXES WITH THE SURFACE LAYER. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 85 TO
90 ALONG AND SOUTH/WEST OF THE MISSOURI...WITH LOW TO MID 80S
NORTH/EAST.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

FOR FIRE WEATHER...GRASSES CONTINUE TO CURE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL KEEP THIS TREND. WHILE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS AGAIN TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SPEEDS THAT WOULD RAISE
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE TOWARDS
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AS A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH POSSIBLY
BRINGING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST AND A VARIETY OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST AREAS AND WILL PICK
UP AGAIN...BUT NOT AS STRONG...LATER ON FRIDAY A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AROUND 16Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 310802
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
302 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO THE DAKOTAS.

TODAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND THE SURFACE LAYER LINKS WITH THE
MIXED LAYER ALOFT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP A BIT AS THE DRY ATMOSPHERE ALOFT
MIXES WITH THE SURFACE LAYER. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 85 TO
90 ALONG AND SOUTH/WEST OF THE MISSOURI...WITH LOW TO MID 80S
NORTH/EAST.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

FOR FIRE WEATHER...GRASSES CONTINUE TO CURE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL KEEP THIS TREND. WHILE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS AGAIN TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SPEEDS THAT WOULD RAISE
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE TOWARDS
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AS A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH POSSIBLY
BRINGING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST AND A VARIETY OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST AREAS AND WILL PICK
UP AGAIN...BUT NOT AS STRONG...LATER ON FRIDAY A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AROUND 16Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 310541
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1241 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NO BIG CHANGES THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN UPDATING LATEST HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS...WITH MINOR CHANGES IN OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN
UPDATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKS LIKE A QUIET
AND COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S BUT A FEW 40S ARE NOT
UNLIKELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NO UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LARGE AND DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING.
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE LOW WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD MAINTAIN A WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
THE DRY WARMING TREND WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR FIRE WEATHER...GRASSES CONTINUE TO CURE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL KEEP THIS TREND. WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WINDS SO FAR REMAIN BELOW SPEEDS THAT WOULD RAISE
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF NORTH DAKOTA
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
(80S TO LOW 90S). SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
AROUND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND. RH VALUES COULD DROP INTO THE
LOW TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST AREAS AND WILL PICK
UP AGAIN...BUT NOT AS STRONG...LATER ON FRIDAY A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AROUND 16Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 310541
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1241 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NO BIG CHANGES THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN UPDATING LATEST HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS...WITH MINOR CHANGES IN OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN
UPDATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKS LIKE A QUIET
AND COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S BUT A FEW 40S ARE NOT
UNLIKELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NO UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LARGE AND DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING.
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE LOW WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD MAINTAIN A WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
THE DRY WARMING TREND WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR FIRE WEATHER...GRASSES CONTINUE TO CURE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL KEEP THIS TREND. WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WINDS SO FAR REMAIN BELOW SPEEDS THAT WOULD RAISE
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF NORTH DAKOTA
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
(80S TO LOW 90S). SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
AROUND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND. RH VALUES COULD DROP INTO THE
LOW TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST AREAS AND WILL PICK
UP AGAIN...BUT NOT AS STRONG...LATER ON FRIDAY A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AROUND 16Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 310238
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN
UPDATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKS LIKE A QUIET
AND COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S BUT A FEW 40S ARE NOT
UNLIKELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NO UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LARGE AND DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING.
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE LOW WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD MAINTAIN A WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
THE DRY WARMING TREND WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR FIRE WEATHER...GRASSES CONTINUE TO CURE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL KEEP THIS TREND. WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WINDS SO FAR REMAIN BELOW SPEEDS THAT WOULD RAISE
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF NORTH DAKOTA
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
(80S TO LOW 90S). SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
AROUND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND. RH VALUES COULD DROP INTO THE
LOW TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST AREAS AND WILL PICK
UP AGAIN...BUT NOT AS STRONG...ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 310238
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN
UPDATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKS LIKE A QUIET
AND COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S BUT A FEW 40S ARE NOT
UNLIKELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NO UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LARGE AND DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING.
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE LOW WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD MAINTAIN A WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
THE DRY WARMING TREND WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR FIRE WEATHER...GRASSES CONTINUE TO CURE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL KEEP THIS TREND. WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WINDS SO FAR REMAIN BELOW SPEEDS THAT WOULD RAISE
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF NORTH DAKOTA
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
(80S TO LOW 90S). SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
AROUND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND. RH VALUES COULD DROP INTO THE
LOW TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST AREAS AND WILL PICK
UP AGAIN...BUT NOT AS STRONG...ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 310238
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN
UPDATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKS LIKE A QUIET
AND COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S BUT A FEW 40S ARE NOT
UNLIKELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NO UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LARGE AND DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING.
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE LOW WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD MAINTAIN A WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
THE DRY WARMING TREND WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR FIRE WEATHER...GRASSES CONTINUE TO CURE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL KEEP THIS TREND. WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WINDS SO FAR REMAIN BELOW SPEEDS THAT WOULD RAISE
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF NORTH DAKOTA
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
(80S TO LOW 90S). SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
AROUND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND. RH VALUES COULD DROP INTO THE
LOW TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST AREAS AND WILL PICK
UP AGAIN...BUT NOT AS STRONG...ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 310238
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN
UPDATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKS LIKE A QUIET
AND COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S BUT A FEW 40S ARE NOT
UNLIKELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NO UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LARGE AND DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING.
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE LOW WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD MAINTAIN A WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
THE DRY WARMING TREND WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR FIRE WEATHER...GRASSES CONTINUE TO CURE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL KEEP THIS TREND. WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WINDS SO FAR REMAIN BELOW SPEEDS THAT WOULD RAISE
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF NORTH DAKOTA
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
(80S TO LOW 90S). SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
AROUND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND. RH VALUES COULD DROP INTO THE
LOW TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
FLOW HAS DIMINISHED TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST AREAS AND WILL PICK
UP AGAIN...BUT NOT AS STRONG...ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 302322
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NO UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LARGE AND DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING.
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE LOW WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD MAINTAIN A WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
THE DRY WARMING TREND WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR FIRE WEATHER...GRASSES CONTINUE TO CURE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL KEEP THIS TREND. WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WINDS SO FAR REMAIN BELOW SPEEDS THAT WOULD RAISE
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF NORTH DAKOTA
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
(80S TO LOW 90S). SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
AROUND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND. RH VALUES COULD DROP INTO THE
LOW TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND THEN
PICK UP AGAIN...BUT NOT AS STRONG...ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 302322
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NO UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LARGE AND DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING.
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE LOW WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD MAINTAIN A WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
THE DRY WARMING TREND WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR FIRE WEATHER...GRASSES CONTINUE TO CURE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL KEEP THIS TREND. WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WINDS SO FAR REMAIN BELOW SPEEDS THAT WOULD RAISE
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF NORTH DAKOTA
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
(80S TO LOW 90S). SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
AROUND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND. RH VALUES COULD DROP INTO THE
LOW TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND THEN
PICK UP AGAIN...BUT NOT AS STRONG...ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301911
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
211 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LARGE AND DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING.
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE LOW WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD MAINTAIN A WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
THE DRY WARMING TREND WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR FIRE WEATHER...GRASSES CONTINUE TO CURE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL KEEP THIS TREND. WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WINDS SO FAR REMAIN BELOW SPEEDS THAT WOULD RAISE
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF NORTH DAKOTA
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
(80S TO LOW 90S). SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
AROUND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND. RH VALUES COULD DROP INTO THE
LOW TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 301911
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
211 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LARGE AND DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING.
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE LOW WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD MAINTAIN A WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
THE DRY WARMING TREND WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR FIRE WEATHER...GRASSES CONTINUE TO CURE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL KEEP THIS TREND. WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WINDS SO FAR REMAIN BELOW SPEEDS THAT WOULD RAISE
CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF NORTH DAKOTA
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
(80S TO LOW 90S). SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
AROUND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND. RH VALUES COULD DROP INTO THE
LOW TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301805
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
105 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

CURRENT TRENDS LOOK GOOD. WINDS NOT SIGNIFICANT ALTHOUGH STARTING
TO GUST A BIT AT MINOT AND JAMESTOWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH JAMES RIVER
VALLEY NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA. WILL CLEAN UP THE CLOUDS AND GO
MOSTLY SUNNY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

COMPACT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THESE DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR
MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...REMOVING BY MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLICING
THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...WITH THREE DISTINCT VORTICITY
CENTERS MOVING INTO THE TROUGH. OUR CONCERN IS THE VORTICITY LOBE
IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80KT/300MB JET WAS
AIDING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT...GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS PER
STANLEY RADAR...FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN/ESTEVAN INTO FAR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS MOMENT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 14Z.
USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR/RAP13 FOR POP LOCATION/TRENDS.
SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE IN AREAL COVERAGE BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z...AS
FORCING ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS REFLECTED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...CROSSING
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12-15Z...AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BETWEEN 18Z-21Z. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT. SKY
CONDITION IN THE NORTH WILL RETURN TO A MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITION BY
MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
TODAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A FEW SUBTLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY BRING AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PATTERN
BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH...BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION. VFR THROUGH THE 18Z FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301805
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
105 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

CURRENT TRENDS LOOK GOOD. WINDS NOT SIGNIFICANT ALTHOUGH STARTING
TO GUST A BIT AT MINOT AND JAMESTOWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH JAMES RIVER
VALLEY NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA. WILL CLEAN UP THE CLOUDS AND GO
MOSTLY SUNNY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

COMPACT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THESE DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR
MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...REMOVING BY MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLICING
THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...WITH THREE DISTINCT VORTICITY
CENTERS MOVING INTO THE TROUGH. OUR CONCERN IS THE VORTICITY LOBE
IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80KT/300MB JET WAS
AIDING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT...GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS PER
STANLEY RADAR...FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN/ESTEVAN INTO FAR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS MOMENT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 14Z.
USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR/RAP13 FOR POP LOCATION/TRENDS.
SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE IN AREAL COVERAGE BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z...AS
FORCING ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS REFLECTED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...CROSSING
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12-15Z...AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BETWEEN 18Z-21Z. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT. SKY
CONDITION IN THE NORTH WILL RETURN TO A MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITION BY
MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
TODAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A FEW SUBTLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY BRING AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PATTERN
BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH...BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION. VFR THROUGH THE 18Z FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 301805
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
105 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

CURRENT TRENDS LOOK GOOD. WINDS NOT SIGNIFICANT ALTHOUGH STARTING
TO GUST A BIT AT MINOT AND JAMESTOWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH JAMES RIVER
VALLEY NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA. WILL CLEAN UP THE CLOUDS AND GO
MOSTLY SUNNY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

COMPACT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THESE DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR
MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...REMOVING BY MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLICING
THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...WITH THREE DISTINCT VORTICITY
CENTERS MOVING INTO THE TROUGH. OUR CONCERN IS THE VORTICITY LOBE
IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80KT/300MB JET WAS
AIDING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT...GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS PER
STANLEY RADAR...FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN/ESTEVAN INTO FAR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS MOMENT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 14Z.
USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR/RAP13 FOR POP LOCATION/TRENDS.
SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE IN AREAL COVERAGE BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z...AS
FORCING ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS REFLECTED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...CROSSING
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12-15Z...AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BETWEEN 18Z-21Z. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT. SKY
CONDITION IN THE NORTH WILL RETURN TO A MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITION BY
MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
TODAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A FEW SUBTLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY BRING AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PATTERN
BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH...BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION. VFR THROUGH THE 18Z FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301805
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
105 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

CURRENT TRENDS LOOK GOOD. WINDS NOT SIGNIFICANT ALTHOUGH STARTING
TO GUST A BIT AT MINOT AND JAMESTOWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH JAMES RIVER
VALLEY NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA. WILL CLEAN UP THE CLOUDS AND GO
MOSTLY SUNNY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

COMPACT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THESE DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR
MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...REMOVING BY MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLICING
THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...WITH THREE DISTINCT VORTICITY
CENTERS MOVING INTO THE TROUGH. OUR CONCERN IS THE VORTICITY LOBE
IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80KT/300MB JET WAS
AIDING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT...GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS PER
STANLEY RADAR...FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN/ESTEVAN INTO FAR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS MOMENT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 14Z.
USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR/RAP13 FOR POP LOCATION/TRENDS.
SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE IN AREAL COVERAGE BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z...AS
FORCING ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS REFLECTED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...CROSSING
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12-15Z...AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BETWEEN 18Z-21Z. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT. SKY
CONDITION IN THE NORTH WILL RETURN TO A MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITION BY
MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
TODAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A FEW SUBTLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY BRING AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PATTERN
BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH...BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION. VFR THROUGH THE 18Z FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 301448
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
948 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH JAMES RIVER
VALLEY NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA. WILL CLEAN UP THE CLOUDS AND GO
MOSTLY SUNNY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

COMPACT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THESE DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR
MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...REMOVING BY MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLICING
THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...WITH THREE DISTINCT VORTICITY
CENTERS MOVING INTO THE TROUGH. OUR CONCERN IS THE VORTICITY LOBE
IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80KT/300MB JET WAS
AIDING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT...GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS PER
STANLEY RADAR...FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN/ESTEVAN INTO FAR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS MOMENT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 14Z.
USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR/RAP13 FOR POP LOCATION/TRENDS.
SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE IN AREAL COVERAGE BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z...AS
FORCING ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS REFLECTED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...CROSSING
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12-15Z...AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BETWEEN 18Z-21Z. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT. SKY
CONDITION IN THE NORTH WILL RETURN TO A MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITION BY
MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
TODAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A FEW SUBTLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY BRING AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PATTERN
BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH...BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS DWINDLING AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY/NORTH OF KJMS...RESULTING IN SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AROUND 8-10KFT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY TODAY...RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 15KT TO 25KT. MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 301448
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
948 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH JAMES RIVER
VALLEY NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA. WILL CLEAN UP THE CLOUDS AND GO
MOSTLY SUNNY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

COMPACT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THESE DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR
MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...REMOVING BY MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLICING
THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...WITH THREE DISTINCT VORTICITY
CENTERS MOVING INTO THE TROUGH. OUR CONCERN IS THE VORTICITY LOBE
IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80KT/300MB JET WAS
AIDING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT...GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS PER
STANLEY RADAR...FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN/ESTEVAN INTO FAR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS MOMENT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 14Z.
USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR/RAP13 FOR POP LOCATION/TRENDS.
SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE IN AREAL COVERAGE BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z...AS
FORCING ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS REFLECTED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...CROSSING
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12-15Z...AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BETWEEN 18Z-21Z. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT. SKY
CONDITION IN THE NORTH WILL RETURN TO A MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITION BY
MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
TODAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A FEW SUBTLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY BRING AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PATTERN
BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH...BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS DWINDLING AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY/NORTH OF KJMS...RESULTING IN SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AROUND 8-10KFT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY TODAY...RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 15KT TO 25KT. MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301126
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
626 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

COMPACT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THESE DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR
MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...REMOVING BY MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLICING
THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...WITH THREE DISTINCT VORTICITY
CENTERS MOVING INTO THE TROUGH. OUR CONCERN IS THE VORTICITY LOBE
IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80KT/300MB JET WAS
AIDING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT...GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS PER
STANLEY RADAR...FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN/ESTEVAN INTO FAR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS MOMENT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 14Z.
USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR/RAP13 FOR POP LOCATION/TRENDS.
SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE IN AREAL COVERAGE BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z...AS
FORCING ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS REFLECTED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...CROSSING
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12-15Z...AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BETWEEN 18Z-21Z. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT. SKY
CONDITION IN THE NORTH WILL RETURN TO A MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITION BY
MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
TODAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A FEW SUBTLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY BRING AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PATTERN
BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH...BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS DWINDLING AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY/NORTH OF KJMS...RESULTING IN SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AROUND 8-10KFT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY TODAY...RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 15KT TO 25KT. MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 300750
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
250 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLICING
THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...WITH THREE DISTINCT VORTICITY
CENTERS MOVING INTO THE TROUGH. OUR CONCERN IS THE VORTICITY LOBE
IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80KT/300MB JET WAS
AIDING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT...GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS PER
STANLEY RADAR...FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN/ESTEVAN INTO FAR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS MOMENT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 14Z.
USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR/RAP13 FOR POP LOCATION/TRENDS.
SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE IN AREAL COVERAGE BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z...AS
FORCING ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS REFLECTED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...CROSSING
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12-15Z...AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BETWEEN 18Z-21Z. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT. SKY
CONDITION IN THE NORTH WILL RETURN TO A MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITION BY
MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
TODAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A FEW SUBTLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY BRING AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PATTERN
BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH...BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED
AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SCOOT ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 14Z THURSDAY. A VCSH WILL CONTINUE FOR
KMOT UNTIL AROUND 12Z. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT FROM
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15KT TO 25KT. MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 300750
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
250 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLICING
THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...WITH THREE DISTINCT VORTICITY
CENTERS MOVING INTO THE TROUGH. OUR CONCERN IS THE VORTICITY LOBE
IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80KT/300MB JET WAS
AIDING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT...GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS PER
STANLEY RADAR...FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN/ESTEVAN INTO FAR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS MOMENT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 14Z.
USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR/RAP13 FOR POP LOCATION/TRENDS.
SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE IN AREAL COVERAGE BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z...AS
FORCING ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS REFLECTED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...CROSSING
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12-15Z...AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BETWEEN 18Z-21Z. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT. SKY
CONDITION IN THE NORTH WILL RETURN TO A MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITION BY
MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
TODAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A FEW SUBTLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY BRING AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PATTERN
BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH...BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED
AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SCOOT ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 14Z THURSDAY. A VCSH WILL CONTINUE FOR
KMOT UNTIL AROUND 12Z. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT FROM
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15KT TO 25KT. MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 300750
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
250 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLICING
THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...WITH THREE DISTINCT VORTICITY
CENTERS MOVING INTO THE TROUGH. OUR CONCERN IS THE VORTICITY LOBE
IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80KT/300MB JET WAS
AIDING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT...GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS PER
STANLEY RADAR...FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN/ESTEVAN INTO FAR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS MOMENT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 14Z.
USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR/RAP13 FOR POP LOCATION/TRENDS.
SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE IN AREAL COVERAGE BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z...AS
FORCING ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS REFLECTED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...CROSSING
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12-15Z...AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BETWEEN 18Z-21Z. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT. SKY
CONDITION IN THE NORTH WILL RETURN TO A MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITION BY
MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
TODAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A FEW SUBTLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY BRING AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PATTERN
BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH...BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED
AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SCOOT ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 14Z THURSDAY. A VCSH WILL CONTINUE FOR
KMOT UNTIL AROUND 12Z. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT FROM
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15KT TO 25KT. MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 300750
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
250 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLICING
THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...WITH THREE DISTINCT VORTICITY
CENTERS MOVING INTO THE TROUGH. OUR CONCERN IS THE VORTICITY LOBE
IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 80KT/300MB JET WAS
AIDING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT...GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS PER
STANLEY RADAR...FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN/ESTEVAN INTO FAR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS MOMENT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 14Z.
USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR/RAP13 FOR POP LOCATION/TRENDS.
SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE IN AREAL COVERAGE BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z...AS
FORCING ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS REFLECTED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...CROSSING
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12-15Z...AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BETWEEN 18Z-21Z. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING BETWEEN 15KT AND 25KT. SKY
CONDITION IN THE NORTH WILL RETURN TO A MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITION BY
MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
TODAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A FEW SUBTLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY BRING AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PATTERN
BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH...BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED
AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SCOOT ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 14Z THURSDAY. A VCSH WILL CONTINUE FOR
KMOT UNTIL AROUND 12Z. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT FROM
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15KT TO 25KT. MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 300523
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

LATEST STANLEY RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITYS INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
BORDER. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT AND BLENDED
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE LATEST HRRR/RAP13 WHICH SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT AREA. EXPECTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHWEST/NORTHCENTRAL...MOVING SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT BUT BECOMING LESS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE UPPER JET
OUTRUNS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE AND END
BY 14Z AS THEY CROSS INTO THE FAR NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
MINIMAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA/TRENDS THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

DISCUSSION BELOW REMAINS VALID. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. WEAK ECHO ALREADY IN DIVIDE COUNTY
VIA STANLEY RADAR.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DECREASING SO HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE.

OTHER NOTEWORTHY ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO MENTION A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. RADAR RETURNS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND UNDERNEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL JET. KEPT THUNDER OUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY
ADVERTISED. BROUGHT CHANCES INTO MY NORTHWEST 4-6Z THEN
CONTINUED/TRACKED PRECIP EAST ACROSS THE NORTH 06-15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER THE GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING CENTRAL AND EAST
EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO EXITING THE REGION
TONIGHT AND AFTER 7 PM WINDS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR. BROAD H500 NORTHWEST FLOW TRENDS WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC
WILL FOLLOW THE H500 EXITING LOW FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN MIDDLE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S WILL GIVE
LOWER MIN RH VALUES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. GRASSES HAVE BEEN CURING OF LATE AND THIS MAY BECOME
AS ISSUE AS THE WEEKEND ARRIVES WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90. HOWEVER WINDS ARE NOT A FACTOR AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF NORTH DAKOTA
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
(80S TO LOW 90S). SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...POTENTIALLY SCOOTING OVER THE KMOT TERMINAL BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z. HAVE ADDED A VCSH FOR KMOT...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF KISN. REST OF THE AERODROMES WILL BE DRY. A
SUBTLE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM
WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. VFR
CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 300523
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

LATEST STANLEY RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITYS INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
BORDER. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT AND BLENDED
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE LATEST HRRR/RAP13 WHICH SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT AREA. EXPECTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHWEST/NORTHCENTRAL...MOVING SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT BUT BECOMING LESS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE UPPER JET
OUTRUNS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE AND END
BY 14Z AS THEY CROSS INTO THE FAR NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
MINIMAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA/TRENDS THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

DISCUSSION BELOW REMAINS VALID. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. WEAK ECHO ALREADY IN DIVIDE COUNTY
VIA STANLEY RADAR.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DECREASING SO HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE.

OTHER NOTEWORTHY ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO MENTION A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. RADAR RETURNS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND UNDERNEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL JET. KEPT THUNDER OUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY
ADVERTISED. BROUGHT CHANCES INTO MY NORTHWEST 4-6Z THEN
CONTINUED/TRACKED PRECIP EAST ACROSS THE NORTH 06-15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER THE GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING CENTRAL AND EAST
EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO EXITING THE REGION
TONIGHT AND AFTER 7 PM WINDS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR. BROAD H500 NORTHWEST FLOW TRENDS WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC
WILL FOLLOW THE H500 EXITING LOW FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN MIDDLE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S WILL GIVE
LOWER MIN RH VALUES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. GRASSES HAVE BEEN CURING OF LATE AND THIS MAY BECOME
AS ISSUE AS THE WEEKEND ARRIVES WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90. HOWEVER WINDS ARE NOT A FACTOR AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF NORTH DAKOTA
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
(80S TO LOW 90S). SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...POTENTIALLY SCOOTING OVER THE KMOT TERMINAL BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z. HAVE ADDED A VCSH FOR KMOT...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF KISN. REST OF THE AERODROMES WILL BE DRY. A
SUBTLE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM
WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. VFR
CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 300523
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

LATEST STANLEY RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITYS INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
BORDER. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT AND BLENDED
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE LATEST HRRR/RAP13 WHICH SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT AREA. EXPECTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHWEST/NORTHCENTRAL...MOVING SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT BUT BECOMING LESS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE UPPER JET
OUTRUNS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE AND END
BY 14Z AS THEY CROSS INTO THE FAR NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
MINIMAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA/TRENDS THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

DISCUSSION BELOW REMAINS VALID. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. WEAK ECHO ALREADY IN DIVIDE COUNTY
VIA STANLEY RADAR.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DECREASING SO HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE.

OTHER NOTEWORTHY ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO MENTION A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. RADAR RETURNS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND UNDERNEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL JET. KEPT THUNDER OUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY
ADVERTISED. BROUGHT CHANCES INTO MY NORTHWEST 4-6Z THEN
CONTINUED/TRACKED PRECIP EAST ACROSS THE NORTH 06-15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER THE GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING CENTRAL AND EAST
EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO EXITING THE REGION
TONIGHT AND AFTER 7 PM WINDS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR. BROAD H500 NORTHWEST FLOW TRENDS WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC
WILL FOLLOW THE H500 EXITING LOW FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN MIDDLE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S WILL GIVE
LOWER MIN RH VALUES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. GRASSES HAVE BEEN CURING OF LATE AND THIS MAY BECOME
AS ISSUE AS THE WEEKEND ARRIVES WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90. HOWEVER WINDS ARE NOT A FACTOR AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF NORTH DAKOTA
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
(80S TO LOW 90S). SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...POTENTIALLY SCOOTING OVER THE KMOT TERMINAL BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z. HAVE ADDED A VCSH FOR KMOT...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF KISN. REST OF THE AERODROMES WILL BE DRY. A
SUBTLE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM
WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. VFR
CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 300523
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

LATEST STANLEY RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITYS INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
BORDER. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT AND BLENDED
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE LATEST HRRR/RAP13 WHICH SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT AREA. EXPECTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHWEST/NORTHCENTRAL...MOVING SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT BUT BECOMING LESS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE UPPER JET
OUTRUNS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE AND END
BY 14Z AS THEY CROSS INTO THE FAR NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
MINIMAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA/TRENDS THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

DISCUSSION BELOW REMAINS VALID. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. WEAK ECHO ALREADY IN DIVIDE COUNTY
VIA STANLEY RADAR.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DECREASING SO HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE.

OTHER NOTEWORTHY ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO MENTION A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. RADAR RETURNS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND UNDERNEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL JET. KEPT THUNDER OUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY
ADVERTISED. BROUGHT CHANCES INTO MY NORTHWEST 4-6Z THEN
CONTINUED/TRACKED PRECIP EAST ACROSS THE NORTH 06-15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER THE GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING CENTRAL AND EAST
EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO EXITING THE REGION
TONIGHT AND AFTER 7 PM WINDS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR. BROAD H500 NORTHWEST FLOW TRENDS WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC
WILL FOLLOW THE H500 EXITING LOW FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN MIDDLE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S WILL GIVE
LOWER MIN RH VALUES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. GRASSES HAVE BEEN CURING OF LATE AND THIS MAY BECOME
AS ISSUE AS THE WEEKEND ARRIVES WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90. HOWEVER WINDS ARE NOT A FACTOR AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF NORTH DAKOTA
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
(80S TO LOW 90S). SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...POTENTIALLY SCOOTING OVER THE KMOT TERMINAL BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z. HAVE ADDED A VCSH FOR KMOT...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF KISN. REST OF THE AERODROMES WILL BE DRY. A
SUBTLE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM
WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. VFR
CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 300300
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1000 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

DISCUSSION BELOW REMAINS VALID. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. WEAK ECHO ALREADY IN DIVIDE COUNTY
VIA STANLEY RADAR.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DECREASING SO HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE.

OTHER NOTEWORTHY ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO MENTION A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. RADAR RETURNS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND UNDERNEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL JET. KEPT THUNDER OUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY
ADVERTISED. BROUGHT CHANCES INTO MY NORTHWEST 4-6Z THEN
CONTINUED/TRACKED PRECIP EAST ACROSS THE NORTH 06-15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER THE GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING CENTRAL AND EAST
EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO EXITING THE REGION
TONIGHT AND AFTER 7 PM WINDS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR. BROAD H500 NORTHWEST FLOW TRENDS WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC
WILL FOLLOW THE H500 EXITING LOW FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN MIDDLE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S WILL GIVE
LOWER MIN RH VALUES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. GRASSES HAVE BEEN CURING OF LATE AND THIS MAY BECOME
AS ISSUE AS THE WEEKEND ARRIVES WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90. HOWEVER WINDS ARE NOT A FACTOR AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF NORTH DAKOTA
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
(80S TO LOW 90S). SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 292340
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DECREASING SO HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE.

OTHER NOTEWORTHY ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO MENTION A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. RADAR RETURNS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND UNDERNEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL JET. KEPT THUNDER OUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY
ADVERTISED. BROUGHT CHANCES INTO MY NORTHWEST 4-6Z THEN
CONTINUED/TRACKED PRECIP EAST ACROSS THE NORTH 06-15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER THE GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING CENTRAL AND EAST
EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO EXITING THE REGION
TONIGHT AND AFTER 7 PM WINDS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR. BROAD H500 NORTHWEST FLOW TRENDS WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC
WILL FOLLOW THE H500 EXITING LOW FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN MIDDLE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S WILL GIVE
LOWER MIN RH VALUES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. GRASSES HAVE BEEN CURING OF LATE AND THIS MAY BECOME
AS ISSUE AS THE WEEKEND ARRIVES WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90. HOWEVER WINDS ARE NOT A FACTOR AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF NORTH DAKOTA
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
(80S TO LOW 90S). SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS QUICKLY WINDING DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS AREA WIDE THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 292340
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DECREASING SO HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE.

OTHER NOTEWORTHY ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO MENTION A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. RADAR RETURNS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND UNDERNEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL JET. KEPT THUNDER OUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY
ADVERTISED. BROUGHT CHANCES INTO MY NORTHWEST 4-6Z THEN
CONTINUED/TRACKED PRECIP EAST ACROSS THE NORTH 06-15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER THE GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING CENTRAL AND EAST
EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO EXITING THE REGION
TONIGHT AND AFTER 7 PM WINDS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR. BROAD H500 NORTHWEST FLOW TRENDS WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC
WILL FOLLOW THE H500 EXITING LOW FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN MIDDLE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S WILL GIVE
LOWER MIN RH VALUES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. GRASSES HAVE BEEN CURING OF LATE AND THIS MAY BECOME
AS ISSUE AS THE WEEKEND ARRIVES WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90. HOWEVER WINDS ARE NOT A FACTOR AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF NORTH DAKOTA
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
(80S TO LOW 90S). SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS QUICKLY WINDING DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS AREA WIDE THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 291927
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
227 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER THE GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING CENTRAL AND EAST
EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO EXITING THE REGION
TONIGHT AND AFTER 7 PM WINDS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR. BROAD H500 NORTHWEST FLOW TRENDS WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC
WILL FOLLOW THE H500 EXITING LOW FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN MIDDLE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S WILL GIVE
LOWER MIN RH VALUES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. GRASSES HAVE BEEN CURING OF LATE AND THIS MAY BECOME
AS ISSUE AS THE WEEKEND ARRIVES WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90. HOWEVER WINDS ARE NOT A FACTOR AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF NORTH DAKOTA
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
(80S TO LOW 90S). SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35KT WILL END AFTER 7 PM CDT
THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO EXITS
THE REGION TO THE EAST. VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
019>023-025-034>037-048-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 291927
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
227 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER THE GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING CENTRAL AND EAST
EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO EXITING THE REGION
TONIGHT AND AFTER 7 PM WINDS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR. BROAD H500 NORTHWEST FLOW TRENDS WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC
WILL FOLLOW THE H500 EXITING LOW FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN MIDDLE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S WILL GIVE
LOWER MIN RH VALUES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. GRASSES HAVE BEEN CURING OF LATE AND THIS MAY BECOME
AS ISSUE AS THE WEEKEND ARRIVES WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90. HOWEVER WINDS ARE NOT A FACTOR AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF NORTH DAKOTA
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
(80S TO LOW 90S). SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35KT WILL END AFTER 7 PM CDT
THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO EXITS
THE REGION TO THE EAST. VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
019>023-025-034>037-048-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 291927
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
227 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER THE GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING CENTRAL AND EAST
EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO EXITING THE REGION
TONIGHT AND AFTER 7 PM WINDS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR. BROAD H500 NORTHWEST FLOW TRENDS WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC
WILL FOLLOW THE H500 EXITING LOW FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN MIDDLE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S WILL GIVE
LOWER MIN RH VALUES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. GRASSES HAVE BEEN CURING OF LATE AND THIS MAY BECOME
AS ISSUE AS THE WEEKEND ARRIVES WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90. HOWEVER WINDS ARE NOT A FACTOR AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF NORTH DAKOTA
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
(80S TO LOW 90S). SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35KT WILL END AFTER 7 PM CDT
THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO EXITS
THE REGION TO THE EAST. VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
019>023-025-034>037-048-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 291731
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1231 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WINDS BEGINNING TO GUST A BIT MORE AS NOON IS REACHED. NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY MID
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

H700-H500 COOL POCKET ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH
MID LEVEL HIGH RH SUPPORTING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST. THE
TQ STABILITY INDEX NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONGESTED CU
FORMATION ALTHOUGH SOME CU MAY FORM. WILL NOT ADD ANY POPS FOR
THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED BREEZY BUT WILL MAINLY ADD
CLOUDS TO FORECAST TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AREA RADARS HAVE INDICATED THAT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE SO HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN
GOOD SHAPE AS WINDS ARE AGAIN STARTING TO INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA. VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH A
BUBBLE/WEDGE OF 3HR (4MB) PRESSURE RISES. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
EAST TODAY WHILE CONTINUING TO NOSE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING (20G30KT)...WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE AS MIXING ENSUES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE WINDS WITHIN MIXING LAYER/DRY ADIABATIC
LAYER NEAR 30KT...AND 40KT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. HENCE HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING MOST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. STANLEY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING
SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS TREND DOWN THE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
ENDING THEM BY AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS IN
THIS DIRECTION. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THERE AFTER...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. A CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND IS FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A
VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH TO START NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO ONTARIO WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER 7 PM CDT. VFR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
019>023-025-034>037-048-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 291731
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1231 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WINDS BEGINNING TO GUST A BIT MORE AS NOON IS REACHED. NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY MID
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

H700-H500 COOL POCKET ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH
MID LEVEL HIGH RH SUPPORTING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST. THE
TQ STABILITY INDEX NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONGESTED CU
FORMATION ALTHOUGH SOME CU MAY FORM. WILL NOT ADD ANY POPS FOR
THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED BREEZY BUT WILL MAINLY ADD
CLOUDS TO FORECAST TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AREA RADARS HAVE INDICATED THAT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE SO HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN
GOOD SHAPE AS WINDS ARE AGAIN STARTING TO INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA. VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH A
BUBBLE/WEDGE OF 3HR (4MB) PRESSURE RISES. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
EAST TODAY WHILE CONTINUING TO NOSE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING (20G30KT)...WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE AS MIXING ENSUES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE WINDS WITHIN MIXING LAYER/DRY ADIABATIC
LAYER NEAR 30KT...AND 40KT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. HENCE HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING MOST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. STANLEY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING
SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS TREND DOWN THE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
ENDING THEM BY AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS IN
THIS DIRECTION. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THERE AFTER...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. A CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND IS FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A
VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH TO START NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO ONTARIO WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER 7 PM CDT. VFR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
019>023-025-034>037-048-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 291731
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1231 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WINDS BEGINNING TO GUST A BIT MORE AS NOON IS REACHED. NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY MID
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

H700-H500 COOL POCKET ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH
MID LEVEL HIGH RH SUPPORTING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST. THE
TQ STABILITY INDEX NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONGESTED CU
FORMATION ALTHOUGH SOME CU MAY FORM. WILL NOT ADD ANY POPS FOR
THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED BREEZY BUT WILL MAINLY ADD
CLOUDS TO FORECAST TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AREA RADARS HAVE INDICATED THAT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE SO HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN
GOOD SHAPE AS WINDS ARE AGAIN STARTING TO INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA. VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH A
BUBBLE/WEDGE OF 3HR (4MB) PRESSURE RISES. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
EAST TODAY WHILE CONTINUING TO NOSE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING (20G30KT)...WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE AS MIXING ENSUES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE WINDS WITHIN MIXING LAYER/DRY ADIABATIC
LAYER NEAR 30KT...AND 40KT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. HENCE HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING MOST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. STANLEY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING
SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS TREND DOWN THE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
ENDING THEM BY AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS IN
THIS DIRECTION. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THERE AFTER...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. A CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND IS FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A
VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH TO START NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO ONTARIO WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER 7 PM CDT. VFR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
019>023-025-034>037-048-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 291508
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1008 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

H700-H500 COOL POCKET ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH
MID LEVEL HIGH RH SUPPORTING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST. THE
TQ STABILITY INDEX NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONGESTED CU
FORMATION ALTHOUGH SOME CU MAY FORM. WILL NOT ADD ANY POPS FOR
THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED BREEZY BUT WILL MAINLY ADD
CLOUDS TO FORECAST TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AREA RADARS HAVE INDICATED THAT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE SO HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN
GOOD SHAPE AS WINDS ARE AGAIN STARTING TO INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA. VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH A
BUBBLE/WEDGE OF 3HR (4MB) PRESSURE RISES. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
EAST TODAY WHILE CONTINUING TO NOSE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING (20G30KT)...WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE AS MIXING ENSUES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE WINDS WITHIN MIXING LAYER/DRY ADIABATIC
LAYER NEAR 30KT...AND 40KT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. HENCE HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING MOST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. STANLEY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING
SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS TREND DOWN THE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
ENDING THEM BY AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS IN
THIS DIRECTION. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THERE AFTER...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. A CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND IS FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A
VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH TO START NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK WESTERLY
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS
TO 35KTS POSSIBLE 15Z-01Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
019>023-025-034>037-048-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 291508
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1008 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

H700-H500 COOL POCKET ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH
MID LEVEL HIGH RH SUPPORTING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST. THE
TQ STABILITY INDEX NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONGESTED CU
FORMATION ALTHOUGH SOME CU MAY FORM. WILL NOT ADD ANY POPS FOR
THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED BREEZY BUT WILL MAINLY ADD
CLOUDS TO FORECAST TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AREA RADARS HAVE INDICATED THAT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE SO HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN
GOOD SHAPE AS WINDS ARE AGAIN STARTING TO INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA. VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH A
BUBBLE/WEDGE OF 3HR (4MB) PRESSURE RISES. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
EAST TODAY WHILE CONTINUING TO NOSE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING (20G30KT)...WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE AS MIXING ENSUES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE WINDS WITHIN MIXING LAYER/DRY ADIABATIC
LAYER NEAR 30KT...AND 40KT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. HENCE HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING MOST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. STANLEY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING
SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS TREND DOWN THE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
ENDING THEM BY AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS IN
THIS DIRECTION. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THERE AFTER...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. A CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND IS FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A
VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH TO START NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK WESTERLY
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS
TO 35KTS POSSIBLE 15Z-01Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
019>023-025-034>037-048-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 291508
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1008 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

H700-H500 COOL POCKET ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH
MID LEVEL HIGH RH SUPPORTING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST. THE
TQ STABILITY INDEX NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONGESTED CU
FORMATION ALTHOUGH SOME CU MAY FORM. WILL NOT ADD ANY POPS FOR
THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED BREEZY BUT WILL MAINLY ADD
CLOUDS TO FORECAST TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AREA RADARS HAVE INDICATED THAT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE SO HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN
GOOD SHAPE AS WINDS ARE AGAIN STARTING TO INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA. VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH A
BUBBLE/WEDGE OF 3HR (4MB) PRESSURE RISES. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
EAST TODAY WHILE CONTINUING TO NOSE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING (20G30KT)...WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE AS MIXING ENSUES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE WINDS WITHIN MIXING LAYER/DRY ADIABATIC
LAYER NEAR 30KT...AND 40KT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. HENCE HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING MOST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. STANLEY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING
SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS TREND DOWN THE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
ENDING THEM BY AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS IN
THIS DIRECTION. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THERE AFTER...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. A CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND IS FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A
VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH TO START NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK WESTERLY
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS
TO 35KTS POSSIBLE 15Z-01Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
019>023-025-034>037-048-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 291132
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
632 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AREA RADARS HAVE INDICATED THAT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE SO HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN
GOOD SHAPE AS WINDS ARE AGAIN STARTING TO INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA. VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH A
BUBBLE/WEDGE OF 3HR (4MB) PRESSURE RISES. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
EAST TODAY WHILE CONTINUING TO NOSE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING (20G30KT)...WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE AS MIXING ENSUES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE WINDS WITHIN MIXING LAYER/DRY ADIABATIC
LAYER NEAR 30KT...AND 40KT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. HENCE HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING MOST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. STANLEY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING
SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS TREND DOWN THE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
ENDING THEM BY AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS IN
THIS DIRECTION. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THERE AFTER...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. A CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND IS FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A
VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH TO START NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25KT AND 35KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY AT KDIK/KMOT/KBIS/KJMS...THEN SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 10KT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
019>023-025-034>037-048-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 291132
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
632 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AREA RADARS HAVE INDICATED THAT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE SO HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN
GOOD SHAPE AS WINDS ARE AGAIN STARTING TO INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA. VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH A
BUBBLE/WEDGE OF 3HR (4MB) PRESSURE RISES. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
EAST TODAY WHILE CONTINUING TO NOSE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING (20G30KT)...WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE AS MIXING ENSUES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE WINDS WITHIN MIXING LAYER/DRY ADIABATIC
LAYER NEAR 30KT...AND 40KT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. HENCE HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING MOST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. STANLEY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING
SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS TREND DOWN THE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
ENDING THEM BY AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS IN
THIS DIRECTION. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THERE AFTER...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. A CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND IS FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A
VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH TO START NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25KT AND 35KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY AT KDIK/KMOT/KBIS/KJMS...THEN SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 10KT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
019>023-025-034>037-048-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 290825
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA. VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH A
BUBBLE/WEDGE OF 3HR (4MB) PRESSURE RISES. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
EAST TODAY WHILE CONTINUING TO NOSE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING (20G30KT)...WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE AS MIXING ENSUES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE WINDS WITHIN MIXING LAYER/DRY ADIABATIC
LAYER NEAR 30KT...AND 40KT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. HENCE HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING MOST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. STANLEY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING
SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS TREND DOWN THE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
ENDING THEM BY AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS IN
THIS DIRECTION. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THERE AFTER...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. A CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND IS FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A
VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH TO START NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25KT AND 35KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z THURSDAY AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS...THEN SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 10KT.
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
019>023-025-034>037-048-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 290825
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA. VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH A
BUBBLE/WEDGE OF 3HR (4MB) PRESSURE RISES. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
EAST TODAY WHILE CONTINUING TO NOSE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING (20G30KT)...WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE AS MIXING ENSUES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE WINDS WITHIN MIXING LAYER/DRY ADIABATIC
LAYER NEAR 30KT...AND 40KT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. HENCE HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING MOST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. STANLEY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING
SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS TREND DOWN THE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
ENDING THEM BY AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS IN
THIS DIRECTION. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THERE AFTER...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. A CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND IS FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A
VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH TO START NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25KT AND 35KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z THURSDAY AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS...THEN SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 10KT.
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
019>023-025-034>037-048-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 290537
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

STRONG WINDS IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING AREA ARE NOW TRENDING
LOWER...MORE IN LINE WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA/SUSTAINED 30 MPH
TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS FROM 45 MPH TO 57 MPH. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
PLACES THE 3HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE OF 5MB NEAR MINOT. THE RAP13
HAS A SECOND RESURGENCE OF PRESSURE RISES FORMING OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES IT SOUTHEAST INTO
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND NOSING INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. 00Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF AT/NEAR
WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MIXED LAYER WINDS 25KT TO 30KT
WITH MAX WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 40KT. THUS
DECISION WAS TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST...AND REPLACE THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INCLUDING THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY. GRANTED THERE WILL SOME LULL
IN THE STRONGEST WINDS CAUSING WINDS TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
NEAR/BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY RISE AGAIN
AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS WILL PROMPT WINDS
TO ONCE AGAIN MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL DWINDLING THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...AS WELL AS A
TAD FARTHER SOUTH. OPTED TO EXTEND HEADLINES TILL 1AM CDT.
SOUTHWEST ND WINDS HAVE COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY SO ALLOWED THE
HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE THERE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

INHERITED FORECAST ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR EDITS WERE NEEDED FOR THE
EARLY EVENING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WINDS CONTINUE TO
GUST OVER 50KTS WEST AND CENTRAL WHERE THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS INDICATES GUSTS TO 70-75 MPH NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES
TAKING PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. WINDS
SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT 3Z-5Z LATER THIS EVENING AS THE TOP OF THE
MIXING LAYER LOWERS...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS MY NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE HIGH WIND WARNING AS
IS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY PARTS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME
INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE SO FAR TODAY. MAIN CHANGE
TO HEADLINES WILL BE TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING WEST SEVERAL
MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING AS THE H850 WINDS AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH 04Z. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SHOWERS EXTEND ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
WILL SPREAD AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTHEAST
AS BISMARCK THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z
AND SHOWERS ENDING BY MORNING. BREEZY WEDNESDAY BUT NOT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW EXITS THE
REGION.

A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING COOLER AND DRYER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
THIS WEEKEND AS THE JET STREAM SHIFTS SOUTH AGAIN AND SEVERAL FAST
MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVES PROPAGATE THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR KMOT/KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AT/NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH. LOW VFR CIGS AT KMOT WITH -SHRA UNTIL 09Z WEDNESDAY...THEN
GRADUAL CLEARING. VFR CIGS/VSBYS REST OF THE AERODROMES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
019>023-025-034>037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 290310
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1010 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...AS WELL AS A
TAD FARTHER SOUTH. OPTED TO EXTEND HEADLINES TILL 1AM CDT.
SOUTHWEST ND WINDS HAVE COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY SO ALLOWED THE
HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE THERE.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

INHERITED FORECAST ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR EDITS WERE NEEDED FOR THE
EARLY EVENING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WINDS CONTINUE TO
GUST OVER 50KTS WEST AND CENTRAL WHERE THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS INDICATES GUSTS TO 70-75 MPH NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES
TAKING PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. WINDS
SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT 3Z-5Z LATER THIS EVENING AS THE TOP OF THE
MIXING LAYER LOWERS...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS MY NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE HIGH WIND WARNING AS
IS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY PARTS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME
INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE SO FAR TODAY. MAIN CHANGE
TO HEADLINES WILL BE TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING WEST SEVERAL
MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING AS THE H850 WINDS AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH 04Z. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SHOWERS EXTEND ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
WILL SPREAD AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTHEAST
AS BISMARCK THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z
AND SHOWERS ENDING BY MORNING. BREEZY WEDNESDAY BUT NOT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW EXITS THE
REGION.

A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING COOLER AND DRYER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
THIS WEEKEND AS THE JET STREAM SHIFTS SOUTH AGAIN AND SEVERAL FAST
MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVES PROPAGATE THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 60 KTS
KISN-KDIK-KMOT-KBIS THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40KTS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-017>023-025-034>036.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ037-047-048.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 290310
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1010 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...AS WELL AS A
TAD FARTHER SOUTH. OPTED TO EXTEND HEADLINES TILL 1AM CDT.
SOUTHWEST ND WINDS HAVE COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY SO ALLOWED THE
HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE THERE.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

INHERITED FORECAST ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR EDITS WERE NEEDED FOR THE
EARLY EVENING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WINDS CONTINUE TO
GUST OVER 50KTS WEST AND CENTRAL WHERE THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS INDICATES GUSTS TO 70-75 MPH NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES
TAKING PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. WINDS
SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT 3Z-5Z LATER THIS EVENING AS THE TOP OF THE
MIXING LAYER LOWERS...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS MY NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE HIGH WIND WARNING AS
IS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY PARTS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME
INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE SO FAR TODAY. MAIN CHANGE
TO HEADLINES WILL BE TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING WEST SEVERAL
MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING AS THE H850 WINDS AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH 04Z. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SHOWERS EXTEND ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
WILL SPREAD AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTHEAST
AS BISMARCK THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z
AND SHOWERS ENDING BY MORNING. BREEZY WEDNESDAY BUT NOT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW EXITS THE
REGION.

A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING COOLER AND DRYER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
THIS WEEKEND AS THE JET STREAM SHIFTS SOUTH AGAIN AND SEVERAL FAST
MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVES PROPAGATE THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 60 KTS
KISN-KDIK-KMOT-KBIS THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40KTS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-017>023-025-034>036.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ037-047-048.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH





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