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000
FXUS63 KBIS 142131
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
331 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL ND AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FIRST OF ALL...WE HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LACK OF
OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE OF IT OVER EAST CENTRAL ND THROUGH 21 UTC.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN PLACES LIKE JAMESTOWN SHOW THE STRATUS DECK
/LOW CLOUDS/ BEING WARMER THAN -12 C...WHICH SUPPORTS SUPERCOOLED
LIQUID DROPS AND NOT ICE CRYSTALS...BUT OMEGA IN THAT LAYER IS ON
ITS WAY DOWNWARD AND SO THE PROBABILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
ONLY LOWER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST OVER CENTRAL ND OUT
OF RESPECT TO SNOWMELT TODAY...INITIALLY-LIGHT WINDS WITHIN 1000
FT OF THE GROUND...AND SIMULATION OF ITS DEVELOPMENT IN THE 15-19
UTC RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND THE 12 UTC
NAM-NEST. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVELS MAY
BECOME A BIT TOO TURBULENT FOR FOG IN MOST AREAS AFTER 09 UTC PER
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE GROUND...WHICH PRODUCES
MODIFIED RICHARDSON NUMBERS GREATER THAN 0.00. OTHERWISE...WE ARE
EXPECTING A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S F...AND IT
SHOULD BE DRY AFTER ANY LATE-AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN SOUTHWESTERN ND
DISSIPATE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO SD.

ON MONDAY...THE 12 UTC GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM ALL SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN ND BY AFTERNOON. THAT WAVE CAN BE SEEN
CRASHING ONTO THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE ON AFTERNOON
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY...AND GIVEN ITS APPARENT CIRCULATION AND
POST-TROUGH DARKENING ON THOSE SATELLITE IMAGES...MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEARS VERY REASONABLE IN SHOWING A MODERATE TO POSSIBLY STRONG
SURGE OF QG-FORCING CROSSING THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WE ARE THUS ADVERTISING POPS OF 40+ PERCENT OVER MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ND MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY
BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AS THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL INITIALLY BE SUB-SATURATED IN SOUTHWEST ND /PROMOTING
WET BULB COOLING/...AND TOO COLD FOR MELTING ALOFT ELSEWHERE WITH
850-MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 1 C. WE THUS HAVE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH QPF FROM 18 TO 00 UTC OF
0.10 INCHES OR LESS PER THE 12 UTC MODEL SUITE.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

ACTIVE FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
WEEK...THEN WE FINALLY TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

MODELS TRENDING STRONGER WITH A S/WV TROUGH/CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
TYPE BY MONDAY EVENING SHOULD BE ALL SNOW WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT
WITH CAA LOWERING TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE
SATURATION LAYER. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS WAVE
GIVEN THE UPTICK IN QPF AND LIFT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS
WILL REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL SO DID NOT MENTION IN THE
HWO WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

THIS CLIPPER IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERMAL PROFILE SUGGEST ALL SNOW WITH
THIS S/WV.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THURSDAY
ALONG WITH MILD/WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
EAST...40S NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL...AND MID/UPPER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. A GOOD SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MIXING AND
MAY LEAD TO EVEN WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THURSDAY THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW LEANED MORE CONSERVATIVE.

UPPER LEVEL S/WV TROUGH FOLLOWS THE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
MODEL SPREAD STILL HIGH RIGHT NOW IN REGARDS TO THIS WAVE. MAY SEE
SOME IMPACTFUL WEATHER THOUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK...RIGHT NOW VERY UNCERTAIN BUT WILL BE WORTH
KEEPING AN EYE ON.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS FROM CENTRAL ND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
COULD BRIEFLY LIFT INTO THE VFR RANGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THEN A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME LOW
STRATUS. ELSEWHERE...KISN AND KDIK SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...ZH/CJS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 141835
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

WE INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND
WITH THIS UPDATE AS TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WARM FRONT IN LOCALES
WITH 2 INCHES OR LESS OF SNOW ON THE GROUND HAVE WARMED RAPIDLY
IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. WE ARE NOW ADVERTISING LOWER 40S F EVEN IN
BISMARCK/MANDAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH ADMITTEDLY MAY NOT BE QUITE
WARM ENOUGH SINCE IT IS ALREADY 40 F HERE AT 1830 UTC. ONLY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO OTHER FORECAST FIELDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WE
WILL CONSIDER THE POSSIBLE ADDITION OF PATCHY FOG TO TONIGHT WITH
THE NEXT FORECAST RELEASE GIVEN SNOWMELT TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. CUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AS THE SNOW HAS VACATED THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID LEAVE A
MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT...SHOWING FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE BACK
EDGE OF THE SNOW. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL HRRR IS NOT SHOWING THE
SAME SCENARIO...EARLIER EXPERIMENTAL RUNS HANDLED THIS MORNINGS
FREEZING DRIZZLE WELL. LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER
JAMESTOWN ALSO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC. CONTINUED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE STILL FAVORED UNDER THE STRATUS DECK WITH ICE CRYSTALS
LACKING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN AS OBSERVED ON THE 12 UTC KBIS
SOUNDING. HOWEVER...SATURATION AT THE TOP OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LAYER DOES APPROACH -10 TO -12 C...ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OCCASIONALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT DEVELOPED
BEFORE MIDNIGHT - ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. WILL BE ADDING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BECAUSE OF THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND EXTENDING THE ADVISORY THAT ENCOMPASSES ALL
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL NOON CST.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS. A CIRCULATION WAS NOTED
IN THE SATELLITE PICS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THE AREA OF SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH EASTWARD...WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW NEAR BOTTINEAU AND EAST OF THE MINOT AREA
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR STANLEY TO GLEN ULLIN AND
EAST OF HETTINGER...WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAD DEVELOPED AND
LOW CLOUDS WERE DISSIPATING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DID SHOW THAT ONCE THE SNOW ENDS IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THAT A DEEP LAYER OF SUPERCOOLED AIR WITH NO ICE CRYSTALS
ABOVE IT WOULD DOMINATE CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPED AT BISMARCK AND LIGHT RADAR RETURNS SURROUNDING THE
BISMARCK RADAR CONFIRM THAT LIGHT FOG PARTICLES/DRIZZLE WERE INTENSE
ENOUGH TO BE DETECTED BY RADAR. MENTION OF FOG WEST OF THE SNOW
BANDS ARE LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THINKING AREA OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS BETWEEN THE AREA OF SNOW IN THE EAST AND
THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST. WILL ADDRESS THIS WITH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 FAR SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 30 TURTLE
MOUNTAINS/JAMES VALLEY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS COMING WEEK...WITH
RESULTANT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD. THE 00 UTC
NAEFS MEAN 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO
THEIR 97.5 TO 99.5+ PERCENTILES BY THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
50S FOR HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BY
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY APPROACHING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

AREAS OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW FLURRIES ARE MAKING THEIR
WAY OUT OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE. LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS WILL KEEP KMOT/KBIS/KJMS IN MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
SCATTERED IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KJMS THROUGH 19Z.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OVER THESE SITES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND THEN A BRIEF
WINDOW OF SOME FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME LOW STRATUS.
ELSEWHERE...KISN AND KDIK SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...ZH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 141548
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
948 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. CUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AS THE SNOW HAS VACATED THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID LEAVE A
MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT...SHOWING FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE BACK
EDGE OF THE SNOW. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL HRRR IS NOT SHOWING THE
SAME SCENARIO...EARLIER EXPERIMENTAL RUNS HANDLED THIS MORNINGS
FREEZING DRIZZLE WELL. LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER
JAMESTOWN ALSO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC. CONTINUED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE STILL FAVORED UNDER THE STRATUS DECK WITH ICE CRYSTALS
LACKING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN AS OBSERVED ON THE 12 UTC KBIS
SOUNDING. HOWEVER...SATURATION AT THE TOP OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LAYER DOES APPROACH -10 TO -12 C...ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OCCASIONALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT DEVELOPED
BEFORE MIDNIGHT - ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. WILL BE ADDING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BECAUSE OF THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND EXTENDING THE ADVISORY THAT ENCOMPASSES ALL
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL NOON CST.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS. A CIRCULATION WAS NOTED
IN THE SATELLITE PICS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THE AREA OF SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH EASTWARD...WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW NEAR BOTTINEAU AND EAST OF THE MINOT AREA
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR STANLEY TO GLEN ULLIN AND
EAST OF HETTINGER...WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAD DEVELOPED AND
LOW CLOUDS WERE DISSIPATING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DID SHOW THAT ONCE THE SNOW ENDS IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THAT A DEEP LAYER OF SUPERCOOLED AIR WITH NO ICE CRYSTALS
ABOVE IT WOULD DOMINATE CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPED AT BISMARCK AND LIGHT RADAR RETURNS SURROUNDING THE
BISMARCK RADAR CONFIRM THAT LIGHT FOG PARTICLES/DRIZZLE WERE INTENSE
ENOUGH TO BE DETECTED BY RADAR. MENTION OF FOG WEST OF THE SNOW
BANDS ARE LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THINKING AREA OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS BETWEEN THE AREA OF SNOW IN THE EAST AND
THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST. WILL ADDRESS THIS WITH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 FAR SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 30 TURTLE
MOUNTAINS/JAMES VALLEY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS COMING WEEK...WITH
RESULTANT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD. THE 00 UTC
NAEFS MEAN 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO
THEIR 97.5 TO 99.5+ PERCENTILES BY THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
50S FOR HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BY
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY APPROACHING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

AT 1230Z A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE
BORDER OF SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA TO NEAR KMOT TO NEAR KBIS AND ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER SOUTH INTO SD. WEST OF THE FRONT AT KISN/KDIK
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND MVFR CIGS TO BECOME VFR
BY AROUND 13Z-15Z THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
FRONT AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS LOOK FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT
SNOW...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT KMOT/KBIS
BY 18Z. KJMS TO REMAIN MVFR/IFR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD





000
FXUS63 KBIS 141239
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
639 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC. CONTINUED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE STILL FAVORED UNDER THE STRATUS DECK WITH ICE CRYSTALS
LACKING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN AS OBSERVED ON THE 12 UTC KBIS
SOUNDING. HOWEVER...SATURATION AT THE TOP OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LAYER DOES APPROACH -10 TO -12 C...ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OCCASIONALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT DEVELOPED
BEFORE MIDNIGHT - ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. WILL BE ADDING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BECAUSE OF THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND EXTENDING THE ADVISORY THAT ENCOMPASSES ALL
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL NOON CST.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS. A CIRCULATION WAS NOTED
IN THE SATELLITE PICS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THE AREA OF SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH EASTWARD...WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW NEAR BOTTINEAU AND EAST OF THE MINOT AREA
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR STANLEY TO GLEN ULLIN AND
EAST OF HETTINGER...WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAD DEVELOPED AND
LOW CLOUDS WERE DISSIPATING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DID SHOW THAT ONCE THE SNOW ENDS IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THAT A DEEP LAYER OF SUPERCOOLED AIR WITH NO ICE CRYSTALS
ABOVE IT WOULD DOMINATE CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPED AT BISMARCK AND LIGHT RADAR RETURNS SURROUNDING THE
BISMARCK RADAR CONFIRM THAT LIGHT FOG PARTICLES/DRIZZLE WERE INTENSE
ENOUGH TO BE DETECTED BY RADAR. MENTION OF FOG WEST OF THE SNOW
BANDS ARE LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THINKING AREA OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS BETWEEN THE AREA OF SNOW IN THE EAST AND
THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST. WILL ADDRESS THIS WITH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 FAR SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 30 TURTLE
MOUNTAINS/JAMES VALLEY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS COMING WEEK...WITH
RESULTANT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD. THE 00 UTC
NAEFS MEAN 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO
THEIR 97.5 TO 99.5+ PERCENTILES BY THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
50S FOR HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BY
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY APPROACHING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

AT 1230Z A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE
BORDER OF SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA TO NEAR KMOT TO NEAR KBIS AND ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER SOUTH INTO SD. WEST OF THE FRONT AT KISN/KDIK
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND MVFR CIGS TO BECOME VFR
BY AROUND 13Z-15Z THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
FRONT AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS LOOK FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT
SNOW...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT KMOT/KBIS
BY 18Z. KJMS TO REMAIN MVFR/IFR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD





000
FXUS63 KBIS 141239
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
639 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC. CONTINUED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE STILL FAVORED UNDER THE STRATUS DECK WITH ICE CRYSTALS
LACKING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN AS OBSERVED ON THE 12 UTC KBIS
SOUNDING. HOWEVER...SATURATION AT THE TOP OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LAYER DOES APPROACH -10 TO -12 C...ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OCCASIONALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT DEVELOPED
BEFORE MIDNIGHT - ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. WILL BE ADDING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BECAUSE OF THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND EXTENDING THE ADVISORY THAT ENCOMPASSES ALL
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL NOON CST.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS. A CIRCULATION WAS NOTED
IN THE SATELLITE PICS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THE AREA OF SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH EASTWARD...WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW NEAR BOTTINEAU AND EAST OF THE MINOT AREA
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR STANLEY TO GLEN ULLIN AND
EAST OF HETTINGER...WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAD DEVELOPED AND
LOW CLOUDS WERE DISSIPATING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DID SHOW THAT ONCE THE SNOW ENDS IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THAT A DEEP LAYER OF SUPERCOOLED AIR WITH NO ICE CRYSTALS
ABOVE IT WOULD DOMINATE CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPED AT BISMARCK AND LIGHT RADAR RETURNS SURROUNDING THE
BISMARCK RADAR CONFIRM THAT LIGHT FOG PARTICLES/DRIZZLE WERE INTENSE
ENOUGH TO BE DETECTED BY RADAR. MENTION OF FOG WEST OF THE SNOW
BANDS ARE LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THINKING AREA OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS BETWEEN THE AREA OF SNOW IN THE EAST AND
THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST. WILL ADDRESS THIS WITH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 FAR SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 30 TURTLE
MOUNTAINS/JAMES VALLEY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS COMING WEEK...WITH
RESULTANT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD. THE 00 UTC
NAEFS MEAN 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO
THEIR 97.5 TO 99.5+ PERCENTILES BY THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
50S FOR HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BY
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY APPROACHING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

AT 1230Z A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE
BORDER OF SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA TO NEAR KMOT TO NEAR KBIS AND ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER SOUTH INTO SD. WEST OF THE FRONT AT KISN/KDIK
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND MVFR CIGS TO BECOME VFR
BY AROUND 13Z-15Z THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
FRONT AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS LOOK FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT
SNOW...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT KMOT/KBIS
BY 18Z. KJMS TO REMAIN MVFR/IFR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD





000
FXUS63 KBIS 141239
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
639 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC. CONTINUED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE STILL FAVORED UNDER THE STRATUS DECK WITH ICE CRYSTALS
LACKING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN AS OBSERVED ON THE 12 UTC KBIS
SOUNDING. HOWEVER...SATURATION AT THE TOP OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LAYER DOES APPROACH -10 TO -12 C...ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OCCASIONALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT DEVELOPED
BEFORE MIDNIGHT - ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. WILL BE ADDING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BECAUSE OF THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND EXTENDING THE ADVISORY THAT ENCOMPASSES ALL
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL NOON CST.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS. A CIRCULATION WAS NOTED
IN THE SATELLITE PICS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THE AREA OF SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH EASTWARD...WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW NEAR BOTTINEAU AND EAST OF THE MINOT AREA
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR STANLEY TO GLEN ULLIN AND
EAST OF HETTINGER...WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAD DEVELOPED AND
LOW CLOUDS WERE DISSIPATING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DID SHOW THAT ONCE THE SNOW ENDS IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THAT A DEEP LAYER OF SUPERCOOLED AIR WITH NO ICE CRYSTALS
ABOVE IT WOULD DOMINATE CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPED AT BISMARCK AND LIGHT RADAR RETURNS SURROUNDING THE
BISMARCK RADAR CONFIRM THAT LIGHT FOG PARTICLES/DRIZZLE WERE INTENSE
ENOUGH TO BE DETECTED BY RADAR. MENTION OF FOG WEST OF THE SNOW
BANDS ARE LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THINKING AREA OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS BETWEEN THE AREA OF SNOW IN THE EAST AND
THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST. WILL ADDRESS THIS WITH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 FAR SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 30 TURTLE
MOUNTAINS/JAMES VALLEY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS COMING WEEK...WITH
RESULTANT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD. THE 00 UTC
NAEFS MEAN 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO
THEIR 97.5 TO 99.5+ PERCENTILES BY THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
50S FOR HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BY
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY APPROACHING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

AT 1230Z A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE
BORDER OF SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA TO NEAR KMOT TO NEAR KBIS AND ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER SOUTH INTO SD. WEST OF THE FRONT AT KISN/KDIK
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND MVFR CIGS TO BECOME VFR
BY AROUND 13Z-15Z THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
FRONT AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS LOOK FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT
SNOW...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT KMOT/KBIS
BY 18Z. KJMS TO REMAIN MVFR/IFR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 140847
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
247 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT DEVELOPED
BEFORE MIDNIGHT - ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. WILL BE ADDING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BECAUSE OF THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND EXTENDING THE ADVISORY THAT ENCOMPASSES ALL
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL NOON CST.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS. A CIRCULATION WAS NOTED
IN THE SATELLITE PICS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THE AREA OF SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH EASTWARD...WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW NEAR BOTTINEAU AND EAST OF THE MINOT AREA
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR STANLEY TO GLEN ULLIN AND
EAST OF HETTINGER...WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAD DEVELOPED AND
LOW CLOUDS WERE DISSIPATING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DID SHOW THAT ONCE THE SNOW ENDS IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THAT A DEEP LAYER OF SUPERCOOLED AIR WITH NO ICE CRYSTALS
ABOVE IT WOULD DOMINATE CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPED AT BISMARCK AND LIGHT RADAR RETURNS SURROUNDING THE
BISMARCK RADAR CONFIRM THAT LIGHT FOG PARTICLES/DRIZZLE WERE INTENSE
ENOUGH TO BE DETECTED BY RADAR. MENTION OF FOG WEST OF THE SNOW
BANDS ARE LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THINKING AREA OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS BETWEEN THE AREA OF SNOW IN THE EAST AND
THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST. WILL ADDRESS THIS WITH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 FAR SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 30 TURTLE
MOUNTAINS/JAMES VALLEY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS COMING WEEK...WITH
RESULTANT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD. THE 00 UTC
NAEFS MEAN 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO
THEIR 97.5 TO 99.5+ PERCENTILES BY THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
50S FOR HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BY
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY APPROACHING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SASKATCHEWAN
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN STANLEY/MINOT TO DICKINSON/GLEN
ULLIN. SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
IT. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING AT KMOT SOON BUT CONTINUING
AT KJMS THROUGH AROUND 11Z-14Z OR SO. SNOW HAD ENDED AT KBIS BUT NOW
AN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAD DEVELOPED BEHIND THE LIGHT SNOW.
THINK WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FZDZ AT KMOT AS WELL ONCE BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW HAS MOVED THROUGH BY AROUND 08Z. MAY NEED TO ADD TO KJMS LATER
THIS MORNING ON THE BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW. OTHERWISE WHEN WESTERLY
WINDS ARRIVE AND TEMPERATURES RISE...THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MVFR/IFR TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...BEGINNING AT KDIK AROUND 12Z AND KISN AROUND
14Z...AND KBIS/KMOT AFT 18Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 140847
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
247 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT DEVELOPED
BEFORE MIDNIGHT - ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. WILL BE ADDING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BECAUSE OF THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND EXTENDING THE ADVISORY THAT ENCOMPASSES ALL
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL NOON CST.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS. A CIRCULATION WAS NOTED
IN THE SATELLITE PICS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THE AREA OF SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH EASTWARD...WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW NEAR BOTTINEAU AND EAST OF THE MINOT AREA
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR STANLEY TO GLEN ULLIN AND
EAST OF HETTINGER...WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAD DEVELOPED AND
LOW CLOUDS WERE DISSIPATING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DID SHOW THAT ONCE THE SNOW ENDS IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THAT A DEEP LAYER OF SUPERCOOLED AIR WITH NO ICE CRYSTALS
ABOVE IT WOULD DOMINATE CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPED AT BISMARCK AND LIGHT RADAR RETURNS SURROUNDING THE
BISMARCK RADAR CONFIRM THAT LIGHT FOG PARTICLES/DRIZZLE WERE INTENSE
ENOUGH TO BE DETECTED BY RADAR. MENTION OF FOG WEST OF THE SNOW
BANDS ARE LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THINKING AREA OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS BETWEEN THE AREA OF SNOW IN THE EAST AND
THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST. WILL ADDRESS THIS WITH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 FAR SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 30 TURTLE
MOUNTAINS/JAMES VALLEY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS COMING WEEK...WITH
RESULTANT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD. THE 00 UTC
NAEFS MEAN 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO
THEIR 97.5 TO 99.5+ PERCENTILES BY THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
50S FOR HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BY
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY APPROACHING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SASKATCHEWAN
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN STANLEY/MINOT TO DICKINSON/GLEN
ULLIN. SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
IT. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING AT KMOT SOON BUT CONTINUING
AT KJMS THROUGH AROUND 11Z-14Z OR SO. SNOW HAD ENDED AT KBIS BUT NOW
AN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAD DEVELOPED BEHIND THE LIGHT SNOW.
THINK WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FZDZ AT KMOT AS WELL ONCE BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW HAS MOVED THROUGH BY AROUND 08Z. MAY NEED TO ADD TO KJMS LATER
THIS MORNING ON THE BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW. OTHERWISE WHEN WESTERLY
WINDS ARRIVE AND TEMPERATURES RISE...THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MVFR/IFR TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...BEGINNING AT KDIK AROUND 12Z AND KISN AROUND
14Z...AND KBIS/KMOT AFT 18Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 140847
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
247 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT DEVELOPED
BEFORE MIDNIGHT - ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. WILL BE ADDING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BECAUSE OF THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND EXTENDING THE ADVISORY THAT ENCOMPASSES ALL
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL NOON CST.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS. A CIRCULATION WAS NOTED
IN THE SATELLITE PICS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THE AREA OF SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH EASTWARD...WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW NEAR BOTTINEAU AND EAST OF THE MINOT AREA
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR STANLEY TO GLEN ULLIN AND
EAST OF HETTINGER...WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAD DEVELOPED AND
LOW CLOUDS WERE DISSIPATING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DID SHOW THAT ONCE THE SNOW ENDS IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THAT A DEEP LAYER OF SUPERCOOLED AIR WITH NO ICE CRYSTALS
ABOVE IT WOULD DOMINATE CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPED AT BISMARCK AND LIGHT RADAR RETURNS SURROUNDING THE
BISMARCK RADAR CONFIRM THAT LIGHT FOG PARTICLES/DRIZZLE WERE INTENSE
ENOUGH TO BE DETECTED BY RADAR. MENTION OF FOG WEST OF THE SNOW
BANDS ARE LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THINKING AREA OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS BETWEEN THE AREA OF SNOW IN THE EAST AND
THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST. WILL ADDRESS THIS WITH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 FAR SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 30 TURTLE
MOUNTAINS/JAMES VALLEY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS COMING WEEK...WITH
RESULTANT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD. THE 00 UTC
NAEFS MEAN 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO
THEIR 97.5 TO 99.5+ PERCENTILES BY THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
50S FOR HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BY
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY APPROACHING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SASKATCHEWAN
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN STANLEY/MINOT TO DICKINSON/GLEN
ULLIN. SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
IT. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING AT KMOT SOON BUT CONTINUING
AT KJMS THROUGH AROUND 11Z-14Z OR SO. SNOW HAD ENDED AT KBIS BUT NOW
AN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAD DEVELOPED BEHIND THE LIGHT SNOW.
THINK WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FZDZ AT KMOT AS WELL ONCE BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW HAS MOVED THROUGH BY AROUND 08Z. MAY NEED TO ADD TO KJMS LATER
THIS MORNING ON THE BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW. OTHERWISE WHEN WESTERLY
WINDS ARRIVE AND TEMPERATURES RISE...THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MVFR/IFR TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...BEGINNING AT KDIK AROUND 12Z AND KISN AROUND
14Z...AND KBIS/KMOT AFT 18Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 140627
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1227 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

HAVE ADDED MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE DEVELOPED AT BISMARCK AROUND 1130 PM...AFTER THE LIGHT
SNOW HAD ENDED. BELIEVE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BETWEEN A WARM FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. THUS EXPECT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM
STANLEY/MINOT SOUTH TO GLEN ULLIN/BISMARCK/STEELE TO
GRANT/SIOUX/EMMONS COUNTIES. SENT A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
ADDRESS THIS ISSUE.

WILL NOT BE CHANGING ANYTHING REGARDING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...EXCEPT TO MENTION THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. STILL
SNOWING AT MINOT AND AREA OF SNOW IS SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD.
WILL LIKELY REVISIT THIS FOR THE NEXT UPDATE.

SOME MINOR CHANGES IN HOURLY WINDS AND TEMPS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES
REGARDING THESE ELEMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 852 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

NWS RADARS DEPICT THE CIRCULATION OF THE SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
(AT 9 PM CST) CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF MINOT. A WARM MOIST
CONVEYER EXTENDS FROM EAST OF LINTON NORTH INTO THE FAR NORTH
CENTRAL. ALONG THIS REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SURFACE VISIBILITIES
ARE OCCASIONALLY AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER MILE IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW FROM EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AND A REGION OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ALONG THE SOURIS RIVER VALLEY.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE LEAVING WEST AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL WITH GREATLY DIMINISHED SNOW OR TERMINATION OF THE
SNOW.

FOLLOWING THE RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS...WILL CANCEL
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 6 AM FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

WILL EXPIRE OR CANCEL THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. A PORTION OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...ACROSS
EASTERN WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTIES...IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. DECIDED TO
LET THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXPIRE AND HANDLE THIS SNOW WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

TO THE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
IS FALLING FROM THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER TO BISMARCK TO MINOT.
THIS AREA TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH THE SOUTHERN END MOVING THE
FASTEST. SETTING UP WELL FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 2 TO
5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED/LOCAL 6 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL. POTENT SHORT WAVE
SLIDING THOUGH THE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WITH WARMER
AIR ALOFT...REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN HAS COME IN OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA CLOSE TO THE MONTANA LINE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MAY LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...THOUGH EXPECT THIS TO GRADUALLY COME TO AN
END/TRANSITION TOWARDS SNOW AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME IN TWO SURGES...WITH THE FIRST ONE
CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
THE SECONDARY WAVE STILL OVER EASTERN MONTANA. HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE COOLER AIR
REMAINS.

ON SUNDAY...LINGERING SNOW OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS UPPER WAVE CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. OTHERWISE...A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWEST. A LITTLE QUESTION REMAINS ON HOW MILD WE CAN GET OVER
OTHER AREAS WITH THE FRESH SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ACTIVE FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
FINALLY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

ANOTHER CHANCE AT WINTER WEATHER RETURNS WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS ADVERTISE A RATHER
ROBUST EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW AND POSSIBLY RAIN/MIXED PRECIP TO
THE DAKOTAS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE IS
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THURSDAY
ALONG WITH MILD/WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
EAST...40S NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL...AND MID 50S OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOLLOWS THE RIDGE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RIDGE
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL SPREAD HIGH RIGHT NOW IN REGARDS TO THE
END OF WEEK WAVE. THE GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF ADVERTISES MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SASKATCHEWAN
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN STANLEY/MINOT TO DICKINSON/GLEN
ULLIN. SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
IT. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING AT KMOT SOON BUT CONTINUING
AT KJMS THROUGH AROUND 11Z-14Z OR SO. SNOW HAD ENDED AT KBIS BUT NOW
AN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAD DEVELOPED BEHIND THE LIGHT SNOW.
THINK WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FZDZ AT KMOT AS WELL ONCE BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW HAS MOVED THROUGH BY AROUND 08Z. MAY NEED TO ADD TO KJMS LATER
THIS MORNING ON THE BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW. OTHERWISE WHEN WESTERLY
WINDS ARRIVE AND TEMPERATURES RISE...THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MVFR/IFR TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...BEGINNING AT KDIK AROUND 12Z AND KISN AROUND
14Z...AND KBIS/KMOT AFT 18Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 140309
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
909 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

NWS RADARS DEPICT THE CIRCULATION OF THE SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
(AT 9 PM CST) CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF MINOT. A WARM MOIST
CONVEYER EXTENDS FROM EAST OF LINTON NORTH INTO THE FAR NORTH
CENTRAL. ALONG THIS REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SURFACE VISIBILITIES
ARE OCCASIONALLY AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER MILE IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW FROM EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AND A REGION OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ALONG THE SOURIS RIVER VALLEY.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE LEAVING WEST AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL WITH GREATLY DIMINISHED SNOW OR TERMINATION OF THE
SNOW.

FOLLOWING THE RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS...WILL CANCEL
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 6 AM FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

WILL EXPIRE OR CANCEL THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. A PORTION OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...ACROSS
EASTERN WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTIES...IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. DECIDED TO
LET THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXPIRE AND HANDLE THIS SNOW WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

TO THE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
IS FALLING FROM THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER TO BISMARCK TO MINOT.
THIS AREA TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH THE SOUTHERN END MOVING THE
FASTEST. SETTING UP WELL FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 2 TO
5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED/LOCAL 6 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL. POTENT SHORT WAVE
SLIDING THOUGH THE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WITH WARMER
AIR ALOFT...REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN HAS COME IN OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA CLOSE TO THE MONTANA LINE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MAY LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...THOUGH EXPECT THIS TO GRADUALLY COME TO AN
END/TRANSITION TOWARDS SNOW AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME IN TWO SURGES...WITH THE FIRST ONE
CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
THE SECONDARY WAVE STILL OVER EASTERN MONTANA. HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE COOLER AIR
REMAINS.

ON SUNDAY...LINGERING SNOW OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS UPPER WAVE CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. OTHERWISE...A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWEST. A LITTLE QUESTION REMAINS ON HOW MILD WE CAN GET OVER
OTHER AREAS WITH THE FRESH SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ACTIVE FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
FINALLY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

ANOTHER CHANCE AT WINTER WEATHER RETURNS WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS ADVERTISE A RATHER
ROBUST EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW AND POSSIBLY RAIN/MIXED PRECIP TO
THE DAKOTAS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE IS
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THURSDAY
ALONG WITH MILD/WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
EAST...40S NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL...AND MID 50S OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOLLOWS THE RIDGE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RIDGE
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL SPREAD HIGH RIGHT NOW IN REGARDS TO THE
END OF WEEK WAVE. THE GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF ADVERTISES MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR
WILLISTON SOUTH TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW KBIS-KMOT-KJMS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR TO IFR
AFTER 08-10Z AND VFR AFTER 15Z. KDIK-KISN MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR
AFTER 10Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ003>005-
011>013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 140031
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

WILL EXPIRE OR CANCEL THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. A PORTION OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...ACROSS
EASTERN WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTIES...IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. DECIDED TO
LET THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXPIRE AND HANDLE THIS SNOW WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

TO THE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
IS FALLING FROM THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER TO BISMARCK TO MINOT.
THIS AREA TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH THE SOUTHERN END MOVING THE
FASTEST. SETTING UP WELL FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 2 TO
5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED/LOCAL 6 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL. POTENT SHORT WAVE
SLIDING THOUGH THE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WITH WARMER
AIR ALOFT...REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN HAS COME IN OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA CLOSE TO THE MONTANA LINE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MAY LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...THOUGH EXPECT THIS TO GRADUALLY COME TO AN
END/TRANSITION TOWARDS SNOW AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME IN TWO SURGES...WITH THE FIRST ONE
CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
THE SECONDARY WAVE STILL OVER EASTERN MONTANA. HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE COOLER AIR
REMAINS.

ON SUNDAY...LINGERING SNOW OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS UPPER WAVE CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. OTHERWISE...A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWEST. A LITTLE QUESTION REMAINS ON HOW MILD WE CAN GET OVER
OTHER AREAS WITH THE FRESH SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ACTIVE FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
FINALLY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

ANOTHER CHANCE AT WINTER WEATHER RETURNS WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS ADVERTISE A RATHER
ROBUST EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW AND POSSIBLY RAIN/MIXED PRECIP TO
THE DAKOTAS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE IS
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THURSDAY
ALONG WITH MILD/WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
EAST...40S NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL...AND MID 50S OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOLLOWS THE RIDGE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RIDGE
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL SPREAD HIGH RIGHT NOW IN REGARDS TO THE
END OF WEEK WAVE. THE GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF ADVERTISES MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR
WILLISTON SOUTH TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW KBIS-KMOT-KJMS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR TO IFR
AFTER 08-10Z AND VFR AFTER 15Z. KDIK-KISN MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR
AFTER 10Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 140031
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

WILL EXPIRE OR CANCEL THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. A PORTION OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...ACROSS
EASTERN WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTIES...IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. DECIDED TO
LET THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXPIRE AND HANDLE THIS SNOW WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

TO THE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
IS FALLING FROM THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER TO BISMARCK TO MINOT.
THIS AREA TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH THE SOUTHERN END MOVING THE
FASTEST. SETTING UP WELL FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 2 TO
5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED/LOCAL 6 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL. POTENT SHORT WAVE
SLIDING THOUGH THE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WITH WARMER
AIR ALOFT...REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN HAS COME IN OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA CLOSE TO THE MONTANA LINE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MAY LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...THOUGH EXPECT THIS TO GRADUALLY COME TO AN
END/TRANSITION TOWARDS SNOW AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME IN TWO SURGES...WITH THE FIRST ONE
CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
THE SECONDARY WAVE STILL OVER EASTERN MONTANA. HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE COOLER AIR
REMAINS.

ON SUNDAY...LINGERING SNOW OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS UPPER WAVE CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. OTHERWISE...A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWEST. A LITTLE QUESTION REMAINS ON HOW MILD WE CAN GET OVER
OTHER AREAS WITH THE FRESH SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ACTIVE FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
FINALLY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

ANOTHER CHANCE AT WINTER WEATHER RETURNS WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS ADVERTISE A RATHER
ROBUST EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW AND POSSIBLY RAIN/MIXED PRECIP TO
THE DAKOTAS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE IS
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THURSDAY
ALONG WITH MILD/WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
EAST...40S NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL...AND MID 50S OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOLLOWS THE RIDGE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RIDGE
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL SPREAD HIGH RIGHT NOW IN REGARDS TO THE
END OF WEEK WAVE. THE GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF ADVERTISES MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR
WILLISTON SOUTH TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW KBIS-KMOT-KJMS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR TO IFR
AFTER 08-10Z AND VFR AFTER 15Z. KDIK-KISN MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR
AFTER 10Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 140031
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

WILL EXPIRE OR CANCEL THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. A PORTION OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...ACROSS
EASTERN WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTIES...IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. DECIDED TO
LET THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXPIRE AND HANDLE THIS SNOW WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

TO THE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
IS FALLING FROM THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER TO BISMARCK TO MINOT.
THIS AREA TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH THE SOUTHERN END MOVING THE
FASTEST. SETTING UP WELL FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 2 TO
5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED/LOCAL 6 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL. POTENT SHORT WAVE
SLIDING THOUGH THE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WITH WARMER
AIR ALOFT...REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN HAS COME IN OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA CLOSE TO THE MONTANA LINE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MAY LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...THOUGH EXPECT THIS TO GRADUALLY COME TO AN
END/TRANSITION TOWARDS SNOW AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME IN TWO SURGES...WITH THE FIRST ONE
CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
THE SECONDARY WAVE STILL OVER EASTERN MONTANA. HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE COOLER AIR
REMAINS.

ON SUNDAY...LINGERING SNOW OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS UPPER WAVE CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. OTHERWISE...A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWEST. A LITTLE QUESTION REMAINS ON HOW MILD WE CAN GET OVER
OTHER AREAS WITH THE FRESH SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ACTIVE FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
FINALLY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

ANOTHER CHANCE AT WINTER WEATHER RETURNS WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS ADVERTISE A RATHER
ROBUST EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW AND POSSIBLY RAIN/MIXED PRECIP TO
THE DAKOTAS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE IS
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THURSDAY
ALONG WITH MILD/WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
EAST...40S NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL...AND MID 50S OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOLLOWS THE RIDGE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RIDGE
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL SPREAD HIGH RIGHT NOW IN REGARDS TO THE
END OF WEEK WAVE. THE GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF ADVERTISES MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR
WILLISTON SOUTH TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW KBIS-KMOT-KJMS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR TO IFR
AFTER 08-10Z AND VFR AFTER 15Z. KDIK-KISN MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR
AFTER 10Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 132200
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
400 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL. POTENT SHORT WAVE
SLIDING THOUGH THE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WITH WARMER
AIR ALOFT...REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN HAS COME IN OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA CLOSE TO THE MONTANA LINE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MAY LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...THOUGH EXPECT THIS TO GRADUALLY COME TO AN
END/TRANSITION TOWARDS SNOW AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME IN TWO SURGES...WITH THE FIRST ONE
CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
THE SECONDARY WAVE STILL OVER EASTERN MONTANA. HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE COOLER AIR
REMAINS.

ON SUNDAY...LINGERING SNOW OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS UPPER WAVE CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. OTHERWISE...A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWEST. A LITTLE QUESTION REMAINS ON HOW MILD WE CAN GET OVER
OTHER AREAS WITH THE FRESH SNOWFALL.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ACTIVE FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
FINALLY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

ANOTHER CHANCE AT WINTER WEATHER RETURNS WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS ADVERTISE A RATHER
ROBUST EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW AND POSSIBLY RAIN/MIXED PRECIP TO
THE DAKOTAS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE IS
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THURSDAY
ALONG WITH MILD/WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
EAST...40S NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL...AND MID 50S OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOLLOWS THE RIDGE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RIDGE
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL SPREAD HIGH RIGHT NOW IN REGARDS TO THE
END OF WEEK WAVE. THE GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF ADVERTISES MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A MIX
OF RAIN...FREEZING...AND SNOW IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY TONIGHT. MFVR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS ALL SITES...WITH
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS. WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY COME FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-
009.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...ZH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 131830
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1230 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ADDED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTY
THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT AND EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO
BURKE...MOUNTRAIL...AND RENVILLE COUNTIES WITH THIS UPDATE.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS OUT OF NORTHEASTERN MONTANA AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NEAR WILLISTON SUPPORT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW MIX IN THE NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. BY
EVENING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. THE
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. DID INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL THROUGH 18Z...AS
MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS ARE COMING IN WITH LIGHT SNOW WHERE THERE
HAVE BEEN LITTLE TO NO RADAR RETURNS. THINKING REMAINS THE SAME ON
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AS WE ENTER A HOLDING PATTERN...WITH LOW
PRESSURE NOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN
WYOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS
UPDATE.

THE FULL 00 AND 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES AND THE
08-11 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERALL...A
CONSENSUS OF THESE SOLUTIONS SUPPORTS GREATER QPF THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...LEADING TO GREATER SNOWFALL TOTALS. OBSERVED TRENDS
ACROSS MONTANA THIS MORNING AND THE 12 UTC SUITE WILL HAVE TO BE
CLOSELY EVALUATED AS SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO APPROACH WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL AS DEPICTED
IN 00 AND 06 UTC SUITES. HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS A WINTRY MIX IN WESTERN ND
AND SNOWFALL IN CENTRAL ND. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
FOR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE SOUTH CENTRAL.

CURRENTLY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA TO
IOWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN RISING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOWS RANGED FROM 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT WERE CURRENTLY AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO. FARTHER WEST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OR
RISING...WITH TEENS IN THE FAR WEST ALL NIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT...WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT EXTENDED FROM WILLISTON
AND STANLEY IN THE NORTHWEST TO GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HIGHRES MODELS INDICATE THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THIS MORNING.

A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
IDAHO AND MONTANA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BEFORE NOON IN THE SOUTHWEST AND AROUND NOON IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.

THE 00Z AND 06Z HIGHRES MODELS SUGGEST STRONG WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ALOFT AROUND +3
TO +5 C. THUS THE THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...SNOW...OR RAIN AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH...COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING IN
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THE THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY
SNOW...BUT A MIX OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS WELL -
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST
AGREEMENT REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT CONSENSUS SNOW AMOUNTS ARE IN
THE 3-5 INCH RANGE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THUS CONFIDENT ON AT
LEAST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL. SOME OF THE
LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE HINTING AT HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER - MAINLY BECAUSE IF THERMAL
PROFILES ARE WARMER/COOLER THAN FORECAST THIS WILL IMPACT SNOW
AMOUNTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. THUS...ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A MIX
OF RAIN...FREEZING...AND SNOW IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY TRANSISTIONING TO ALL SNOW BY TONIGHT. MFVR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS ALL SITES...WITH
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS. WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY COME FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-
009.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...ZH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 131551
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. DID INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL THROUGH 18Z...AS
MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS ARE COMING IN WITH LIGHT SNOW WHERE THERE
HAVE BEEN LITTLE TO NO RADAR RETURNS. THINKING REMAINS THE SAME ON
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AS WE ENTER A HOLDING PATTERN...WITH LOW
PRESSURE NOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN
WYOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS
UPDATE.

THE FULL 00 AND 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES AND THE
08-11 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERALL...A
CONSENSUS OF THESE SOLUTIONS SUPPORTS GREATER QPF THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...LEADING TO GREATER SNOWFALL TOTALS. OBSERVED TRENDS
ACROSS MONTANA THIS MORNING AND THE 12 UTC SUITE WILL HAVE TO BE
CLOSELY EVALUATED AS SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO APPROACH WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL AS DEPICTED
IN 00 AND 06 UTC SUITES. HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS A WINTRY MIX IN WESTERN ND
AND SNOWFALL IN CENTRAL ND. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
FOR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE SOUTH CENTRAL.

CURRENTLY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA TO
IOWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN RISING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOWS RANGED FROM 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT WERE CURRENTLY AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO. FARTHER WEST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OR
RISING...WITH TEENS IN THE FAR WEST ALL NIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT...WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT EXTENDED FROM WILLISTON
AND STANLEY IN THE NORTHWEST TO GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HIGHRES MODELS INDICATE THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THIS MORNING.

A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
IDAHO AND MONTANA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BEFORE NOON IN THE SOUTHWEST AND AROUND NOON IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.

THE 00Z AND 06Z HIGHRES MODELS SUGGEST STRONG WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ALOFT AROUND +3
TO +5 C. THUS THE THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...SNOW...OR RAIN AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH...COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING IN
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THE THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY
SNOW...BUT A MIX OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS WELL -
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST
AGREEMENT REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT CONSENSUS SNOW AMOUNTS ARE IN
THE 3-5 INCH RANGE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THUS CONFIDENT ON AT
LEAST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL. SOME OF THE
LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE HINTING AT HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER - MAINLY BECAUSE IF THERMAL
PROFILES ARE WARMER/COOLER THAN FORECAST THIS WILL IMPACT SNOW
AMOUNTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. THUS...ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN AT CENTRAL ND SITES ONCE THEY ARRIVE. BUT
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LOW VFR CEILINGS AT KISN AND KDIK 12-18Z
BEFORE LOWERING BACK TO MVFR AFT 18Z SAT. MAIN CONCERN IS LATER ON
SATURDAY 15Z- 23Z IN WESTERN ND WHEN WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST
WOULD BRING A WINTRY MIX STARTING WITH SNOW...LEADING TO
SLEET...THEN FREEZING RAIN...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW AFT 00Z.
WILL BE ANALYZING LATEST MODELS AND HOPE TO HAVE A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE FOR TIMING AT KISN AND
KDIK.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ004-005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD





000
FXUS63 KBIS 130950
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS A WINTRY MIX IN WESTERN ND
AND SNOWFALL IN CENTRAL ND. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
FOR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE SOUTH CENTRAL.

CURRENTLY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA TO
IOWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN RISING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOWS RANGED FROM 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT WERE CURRENTLY AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO. FARTHER WEST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OR
RISING...WITH TEENS IN THE FAR WEST ALL NIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT...WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT EXTENDED FROM WILLISTON
AND STANLEY IN THE NORTHWEST TO GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HIGHRES MODELS INDICATE THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THIS MORNING.

A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
IDAHO AND MONTANA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BEFORE NOON IN THE SOUTHWEST AND AROUND NOON IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.

THE 00Z AND 06Z HIGHRES MODELS SUGGEST STRONG WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ALOFT AROUND +3
TO +5 C. THUS THE THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...SNOW...OR RAIN AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH...COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING IN
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THE THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY
SNOW...BUT A MIX OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS WELL -
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST
AGREEMENT REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT CONSENSUS SNOW AMOUNTS ARE IN
THE 3-5 INCH RANGE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THUS CONFIDENT ON AT
LEAST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL. SOME OF THE
LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE HINTING AT HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER - MAINLY BECAUSE IF THERMAL
PROFILES ARE WARMER/COOLER THAN FORECAST THIS WILL IMPACT SNOW
AMOUNTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. THUS...ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WAS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING (KISN AND KDIK) WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AT
TIMES THROUGH 10Z...AND THEN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE (KBIS AND KMOT) BY AROUND 09Z-12Z. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO
REMAIN AT CENTRAL ND SITES ONCE THEY ARRIVE. BUT PERHAPS A PERIOD OF
LOW VFR CEILINGS AT KISN AND KDIK 12-18Z BEFORE LOWERING BACK TO
MVFR AFT 18Z SAT. MAIN CONCERN IS LATER ON SATURDAY 15Z-23Z IN
WESTERN ND WHEN WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WOULD BRING A WINTRY
MIX STARTING WITH SNOW...LEADING TO SLEET...THEN FREEZING
RAIN...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW AFT 00Z. WILL BE ANALYZING
LATEST MODELS AND HOPE TO HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR THE 12Z
TAF ISSUANCE FOR TIMING AT KISN AND KDIK.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 6 AM
CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-
051.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-
043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 130626
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. HOURLY TEMPERATURES
ARE A CHALLENGE WITH DEEP ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND STEADY TO RISING
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20
MPH WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WERE CURRENTLY IN THE
TEENS SOUTHWEST WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW. THE WARM ADVECTION FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY WILL MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING PRECIPITATION TYPE
FORECAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW WEST IN THE
MORNING...TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGESTING IF PRECIPITATION DOES FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THE SNOW WOULD CHANGE TO SLEET...THEN FREEZING
RAIN...AND PERHAPS RAIN (DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST). SHOULD HAVE A
BETTER IDEA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS LATEST MODEL DATA
ARRIVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO BIG CHANGES AGAIN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. DID HAVE TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. ROLLA HAS DROPPED TO 20
BELOW...BUT RUGBY IS SETTING AT 4 BELOW. NAM12 FCST SFC PRES
PUSHES THE HIGH EAST OVERNIGHT SO NOT SURE ABOUT TEENS BELOW ZERO
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
FROM THE WEST. BUT JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICK SO WILL LEAVE TEMPS ALONE. MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN THE EAST TONIGHT BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF TIME LAGGED MESOSCALE MODELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. WITH COLD SURFACE
HIGH SITTING OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE FAR EAST. HOWEVER WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. THINK LOWS
WILL OCCUR SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN START TO RISE TOWARD
MORNING. CURRENT TIMING FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING WEST LOOKS
GOOD IN THE WEST WITH RETURNS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX IN WESTERN ND AND SNOWFALL IN CENTRAL ND ON SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM AND MORE RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS ALL
SUGGEST A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN ND TONIGHT
AND INTO CENTRAL ND BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THOSE SIMULATIONS
ALL SUGGEST LIQUID-EQUIVALENT MOISTURE TOTALS WILL BE SMALL AND
THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THIS WEAK...WARM-ADVECTION-INDUCED
BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.
GUIDANCE EXPECTS THIS SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY...WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY INITIALLY.

ON SATURDAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RISE INTO THE +3 TO
+6 C RANGE IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. APPLYING THE TOP-DOWN METHOD TO MODEL-FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORTS A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW
IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF HIGHWAYS 85 AND 22 DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TAKING THE
12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL SUITE AT FACE VALUE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A
RELATIVE LULL IN VERTICAL MOTION DURING THE TIME DURING WHICH THE
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS ALOFT...AND THUS
THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY OCCURRING WHEN AN IMPACT-
WORTHY TYPE OCCUR IS IN QUESTION. MOREOVER...AN IN-HOUSE MODEL OF
ROAD TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THEY MAY RISE WELL ABOVE 32 F SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TOO...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND WILL LIKELY WARM UP ENOUGH
FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW INSTEAD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. WE THUS
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HOIST ANY HEADLINES FOR FREEZING
RAIN AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER THERE
WILL ACTUALLY BE ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BEGIN COOLING AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL LIKELY INDUCE INCREASING PRECIPITATION IN
THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE 12 UTC CONVECTION-
ALLOWING...NCEP-RUN WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THEIR SIMULATION OF THAT PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODEL RESULTS ARE LIKELY A RESULT OF SEASONABLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT...BUT FORCING AND UPRIGHT INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION LIKE THAT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. REGARDLESS...WE HAVE 40-60 PERCENT POPS IN PLACE FOR
MOST AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ONGOING ACTIVE WEATHER OR PERHAPS THE BEGINNING OF ACTIVE WEATHER
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT. WE REMAIN
ACTIVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A QUIETER AND WARMER
PERIOD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

CONTINUING FROM THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...COOLING ALOFT WITH
MID LEVEL CAA AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN PRIMARILY
SNOW SATURDAY EVENING...SO HAVE NO MENTION OF FREEZING
PRECIPITATION 00Z AND ONWARD. STILL UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT AND
AMOUNTS OF SNOW...BUT WHEN LEANING TOWARDS THE 12/18Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF...RESULTS IN THE MORE FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION AREAS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG TO EAST OF
A SLOWLY EASTWARD ADVANCING SFC TROUGH/DOUBLE BARRELED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL S/WV. BOTH THE GFS/EC
FAVOR THE HEAVIER QPF TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA NEAR THE
BASE OF THE MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH AND WHERE MODELS SUGGEST THE
SOUTHERN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO TRACK. STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT IT
APPEARS MODELS ARE TRENDING IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED DIRECTION.
DISCARDED THE NAM OUTPUT FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE FOR THIS
PERIOD AS IT IS AN OUTLIER.

SNOW ENDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES
FILTERING WEST INTO THE STATE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER CHANCE AT WINTER WEATHER RETURNS WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS ADVERTISE ANOTHER S/WV
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. NEEDLESS TO SAY HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME FOR THIS FEATURE.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LOWER 50S WHERE THERE IS NO
SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WAS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING (KISN AND KDIK) WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AT
TIMES THROUGH 10Z...AND THEN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE (KBIS AND KMOT) BY AROUND 09Z-12Z. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO
REMAIN AT CENTRAL ND SITES ONCE THEY ARRIVE. BUT PERHAPS A PERIOD OF
LOW VFR CEILINGS AT KISN AND KDIK 12-18Z BEFORE LOWERING BACK TO
MVFR AFT 18Z SAT. MAIN CONCERN IS LATER ON SATURDAY 15Z-23Z IN
WESTERN ND WHEN WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WOULD BRING A WINTRY
MIX STARTING WITH SNOW...LEADING TO SLEET...THEN FREEZING
RAIN...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW AFT 00Z. WILL BE ANALYZING
LATEST MODELS AND HOPE TO HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR THE 12Z
TAF ISSUANCE FOR TIMING AT KISN AND KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 130626
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. HOURLY TEMPERATURES
ARE A CHALLENGE WITH DEEP ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND STEADY TO RISING
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20
MPH WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WERE CURRENTLY IN THE
TEENS SOUTHWEST WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW. THE WARM ADVECTION FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY WILL MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING PRECIPITATION TYPE
FORECAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW WEST IN THE
MORNING...TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGESTING IF PRECIPITATION DOES FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THE SNOW WOULD CHANGE TO SLEET...THEN FREEZING
RAIN...AND PERHAPS RAIN (DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST). SHOULD HAVE A
BETTER IDEA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS LATEST MODEL DATA
ARRIVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO BIG CHANGES AGAIN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. DID HAVE TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. ROLLA HAS DROPPED TO 20
BELOW...BUT RUGBY IS SETTING AT 4 BELOW. NAM12 FCST SFC PRES
PUSHES THE HIGH EAST OVERNIGHT SO NOT SURE ABOUT TEENS BELOW ZERO
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
FROM THE WEST. BUT JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICK SO WILL LEAVE TEMPS ALONE. MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN THE EAST TONIGHT BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF TIME LAGGED MESOSCALE MODELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. WITH COLD SURFACE
HIGH SITTING OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE FAR EAST. HOWEVER WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. THINK LOWS
WILL OCCUR SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN START TO RISE TOWARD
MORNING. CURRENT TIMING FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING WEST LOOKS
GOOD IN THE WEST WITH RETURNS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX IN WESTERN ND AND SNOWFALL IN CENTRAL ND ON SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM AND MORE RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS ALL
SUGGEST A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN ND TONIGHT
AND INTO CENTRAL ND BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THOSE SIMULATIONS
ALL SUGGEST LIQUID-EQUIVALENT MOISTURE TOTALS WILL BE SMALL AND
THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THIS WEAK...WARM-ADVECTION-INDUCED
BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.
GUIDANCE EXPECTS THIS SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY...WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY INITIALLY.

ON SATURDAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RISE INTO THE +3 TO
+6 C RANGE IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. APPLYING THE TOP-DOWN METHOD TO MODEL-FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORTS A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW
IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF HIGHWAYS 85 AND 22 DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TAKING THE
12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL SUITE AT FACE VALUE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A
RELATIVE LULL IN VERTICAL MOTION DURING THE TIME DURING WHICH THE
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS ALOFT...AND THUS
THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY OCCURRING WHEN AN IMPACT-
WORTHY TYPE OCCUR IS IN QUESTION. MOREOVER...AN IN-HOUSE MODEL OF
ROAD TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THEY MAY RISE WELL ABOVE 32 F SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TOO...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND WILL LIKELY WARM UP ENOUGH
FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW INSTEAD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. WE THUS
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HOIST ANY HEADLINES FOR FREEZING
RAIN AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER THERE
WILL ACTUALLY BE ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BEGIN COOLING AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL LIKELY INDUCE INCREASING PRECIPITATION IN
THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE 12 UTC CONVECTION-
ALLOWING...NCEP-RUN WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THEIR SIMULATION OF THAT PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODEL RESULTS ARE LIKELY A RESULT OF SEASONABLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT...BUT FORCING AND UPRIGHT INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION LIKE THAT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. REGARDLESS...WE HAVE 40-60 PERCENT POPS IN PLACE FOR
MOST AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ONGOING ACTIVE WEATHER OR PERHAPS THE BEGINNING OF ACTIVE WEATHER
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT. WE REMAIN
ACTIVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A QUIETER AND WARMER
PERIOD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

CONTINUING FROM THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...COOLING ALOFT WITH
MID LEVEL CAA AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN PRIMARILY
SNOW SATURDAY EVENING...SO HAVE NO MENTION OF FREEZING
PRECIPITATION 00Z AND ONWARD. STILL UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT AND
AMOUNTS OF SNOW...BUT WHEN LEANING TOWARDS THE 12/18Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF...RESULTS IN THE MORE FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION AREAS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG TO EAST OF
A SLOWLY EASTWARD ADVANCING SFC TROUGH/DOUBLE BARRELED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL S/WV. BOTH THE GFS/EC
FAVOR THE HEAVIER QPF TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA NEAR THE
BASE OF THE MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH AND WHERE MODELS SUGGEST THE
SOUTHERN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO TRACK. STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT IT
APPEARS MODELS ARE TRENDING IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED DIRECTION.
DISCARDED THE NAM OUTPUT FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE FOR THIS
PERIOD AS IT IS AN OUTLIER.

SNOW ENDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES
FILTERING WEST INTO THE STATE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER CHANCE AT WINTER WEATHER RETURNS WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS ADVERTISE ANOTHER S/WV
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. NEEDLESS TO SAY HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME FOR THIS FEATURE.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LOWER 50S WHERE THERE IS NO
SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WAS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING (KISN AND KDIK) WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AT
TIMES THROUGH 10Z...AND THEN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE (KBIS AND KMOT) BY AROUND 09Z-12Z. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO
REMAIN AT CENTRAL ND SITES ONCE THEY ARRIVE. BUT PERHAPS A PERIOD OF
LOW VFR CEILINGS AT KISN AND KDIK 12-18Z BEFORE LOWERING BACK TO
MVFR AFT 18Z SAT. MAIN CONCERN IS LATER ON SATURDAY 15Z-23Z IN
WESTERN ND WHEN WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WOULD BRING A WINTRY
MIX STARTING WITH SNOW...LEADING TO SLEET...THEN FREEZING
RAIN...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW AFT 00Z. WILL BE ANALYZING
LATEST MODELS AND HOPE TO HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR THE 12Z
TAF ISSUANCE FOR TIMING AT KISN AND KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 130626
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. HOURLY TEMPERATURES
ARE A CHALLENGE WITH DEEP ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND STEADY TO RISING
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20
MPH WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WERE CURRENTLY IN THE
TEENS SOUTHWEST WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW. THE WARM ADVECTION FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY WILL MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING PRECIPITATION TYPE
FORECAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW WEST IN THE
MORNING...TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGESTING IF PRECIPITATION DOES FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THE SNOW WOULD CHANGE TO SLEET...THEN FREEZING
RAIN...AND PERHAPS RAIN (DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST). SHOULD HAVE A
BETTER IDEA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS LATEST MODEL DATA
ARRIVE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO BIG CHANGES AGAIN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. DID HAVE TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. ROLLA HAS DROPPED TO 20
BELOW...BUT RUGBY IS SETTING AT 4 BELOW. NAM12 FCST SFC PRES
PUSHES THE HIGH EAST OVERNIGHT SO NOT SURE ABOUT TEENS BELOW ZERO
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
FROM THE WEST. BUT JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICK SO WILL LEAVE TEMPS ALONE. MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN THE EAST TONIGHT BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF TIME LAGGED MESOSCALE MODELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. WITH COLD SURFACE
HIGH SITTING OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE FAR EAST. HOWEVER WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. THINK LOWS
WILL OCCUR SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN START TO RISE TOWARD
MORNING. CURRENT TIMING FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING WEST LOOKS
GOOD IN THE WEST WITH RETURNS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX IN WESTERN ND AND SNOWFALL IN CENTRAL ND ON SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM AND MORE RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS ALL
SUGGEST A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN ND TONIGHT
AND INTO CENTRAL ND BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THOSE SIMULATIONS
ALL SUGGEST LIQUID-EQUIVALENT MOISTURE TOTALS WILL BE SMALL AND
THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THIS WEAK...WARM-ADVECTION-INDUCED
BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.
GUIDANCE EXPECTS THIS SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY...WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY INITIALLY.

ON SATURDAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RISE INTO THE +3 TO
+6 C RANGE IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. APPLYING THE TOP-DOWN METHOD TO MODEL-FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORTS A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW
IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF HIGHWAYS 85 AND 22 DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TAKING THE
12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL SUITE AT FACE VALUE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A
RELATIVE LULL IN VERTICAL MOTION DURING THE TIME DURING WHICH THE
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS ALOFT...AND THUS
THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY OCCURRING WHEN AN IMPACT-
WORTHY TYPE OCCUR IS IN QUESTION. MOREOVER...AN IN-HOUSE MODEL OF
ROAD TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THEY MAY RISE WELL ABOVE 32 F SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TOO...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND WILL LIKELY WARM UP ENOUGH
FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW INSTEAD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. WE THUS
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HOIST ANY HEADLINES FOR FREEZING
RAIN AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER THERE
WILL ACTUALLY BE ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BEGIN COOLING AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL LIKELY INDUCE INCREASING PRECIPITATION IN
THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE 12 UTC CONVECTION-
ALLOWING...NCEP-RUN WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THEIR SIMULATION OF THAT PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODEL RESULTS ARE LIKELY A RESULT OF SEASONABLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT...BUT FORCING AND UPRIGHT INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION LIKE THAT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. REGARDLESS...WE HAVE 40-60 PERCENT POPS IN PLACE FOR
MOST AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ONGOING ACTIVE WEATHER OR PERHAPS THE BEGINNING OF ACTIVE WEATHER
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT. WE REMAIN
ACTIVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A QUIETER AND WARMER
PERIOD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

CONTINUING FROM THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...COOLING ALOFT WITH
MID LEVEL CAA AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN PRIMARILY
SNOW SATURDAY EVENING...SO HAVE NO MENTION OF FREEZING
PRECIPITATION 00Z AND ONWARD. STILL UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT AND
AMOUNTS OF SNOW...BUT WHEN LEANING TOWARDS THE 12/18Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF...RESULTS IN THE MORE FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION AREAS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG TO EAST OF
A SLOWLY EASTWARD ADVANCING SFC TROUGH/DOUBLE BARRELED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL S/WV. BOTH THE GFS/EC
FAVOR THE HEAVIER QPF TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA NEAR THE
BASE OF THE MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH AND WHERE MODELS SUGGEST THE
SOUTHERN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO TRACK. STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT IT
APPEARS MODELS ARE TRENDING IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED DIRECTION.
DISCARDED THE NAM OUTPUT FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE FOR THIS
PERIOD AS IT IS AN OUTLIER.

SNOW ENDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES
FILTERING WEST INTO THE STATE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER CHANCE AT WINTER WEATHER RETURNS WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS ADVERTISE ANOTHER S/WV
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. NEEDLESS TO SAY HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME FOR THIS FEATURE.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LOWER 50S WHERE THERE IS NO
SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WAS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING (KISN AND KDIK) WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AT
TIMES THROUGH 10Z...AND THEN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE (KBIS AND KMOT) BY AROUND 09Z-12Z. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO
REMAIN AT CENTRAL ND SITES ONCE THEY ARRIVE. BUT PERHAPS A PERIOD OF
LOW VFR CEILINGS AT KISN AND KDIK 12-18Z BEFORE LOWERING BACK TO
MVFR AFT 18Z SAT. MAIN CONCERN IS LATER ON SATURDAY 15Z-23Z IN
WESTERN ND WHEN WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WOULD BRING A WINTRY
MIX STARTING WITH SNOW...LEADING TO SLEET...THEN FREEZING
RAIN...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW AFT 00Z. WILL BE ANALYZING
LATEST MODELS AND HOPE TO HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR THE 12Z
TAF ISSUANCE FOR TIMING AT KISN AND KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 130353
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO BIG CHANGES AGAIN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. DID HAVE TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. ROLLA HAS DROPPED TO 20
BELOW...BUT RUGBY IS SETTING AT 4 BELOW. NAM12 FCST SFC PRES
PUSHES THE HIGH EAST OVERNIGHT SO NOT SURE ABOUT TEENS BELOW ZERO
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
FROM THE WEST. BUT JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICK SO WILL LEAVE TEMPS ALONE. MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN THE EAST TONIGHT BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF TIME LAGGED MESOSCALE MODELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. WITH COLD SURFACE
HIGH SITTING OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE FAR EAST. HOWEVER WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. THINK LOWS
WILL OCCUR SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN START TO RISE TOWARD
MORNING. CURRENT TIMING FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING WEST LOOKS
GOOD IN THE WEST WITH RETURNS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX IN WESTERN ND AND SNOWFALL IN CENTRAL ND ON SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM AND MORE RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS ALL
SUGGEST A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN ND TONIGHT
AND INTO CENTRAL ND BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THOSE SIMULATIONS
ALL SUGGEST LIQUID-EQUIVALENT MOISTURE TOTALS WILL BE SMALL AND
THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THIS WEAK...WARM-ADVECTION-INDUCED
BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.
GUIDANCE EXPECTS THIS SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY...WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY INITIALLY.

ON SATURDAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RISE INTO THE +3 TO
+6 C RANGE IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. APPLYING THE TOP-DOWN METHOD TO MODEL-FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORTS A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW
IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF HIGHWAYS 85 AND 22 DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TAKING THE
12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL SUITE AT FACE VALUE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A
RELATIVE LULL IN VERTICAL MOTION DURING THE TIME DURING WHICH THE
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS ALOFT...AND THUS
THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY OCCURRING WHEN AN IMPACT-
WORTHY TYPE OCCUR IS IN QUESTION. MOREOVER...AN IN-HOUSE MODEL OF
ROAD TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THEY MAY RISE WELL ABOVE 32 F SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TOO...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND WILL LIKELY WARM UP ENOUGH
FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW INSTEAD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. WE THUS
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HOIST ANY HEADLINES FOR FREEZING
RAIN AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER THERE
WILL ACTUALLY BE ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BEGIN COOLING AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL LIKELY INDUCE INCREASING PRECIPITATION IN
THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE 12 UTC CONVECTION-
ALLOWING...NCEP-RUN WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THEIR SIMULATION OF THAT PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODEL RESULTS ARE LIKELY A RESULT OF SEASONABLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT...BUT FORCING AND UPRIGHT INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION LIKE THAT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. REGARDLESS...WE HAVE 40-60 PERCENT POPS IN PLACE FOR
MOST AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ONGOING ACTIVE WEATHER OR PERHAPS THE BEGINNING OF ACTIVE WEATHER
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT. WE REMAIN
ACTIVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A QUIETER AND WARMER
PERIOD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

CONTINUING FROM THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...COOLING ALOFT WITH
MID LEVEL CAA AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN PRIMARILY
SNOW SATURDAY EVENING...SO HAVE NO MENTION OF FREEZING
PRECIPITATION 00Z AND ONWARD. STILL UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT AND
AMOUNTS OF SNOW...BUT WHEN LEANING TOWARDS THE 12/18Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF...RESULTS IN THE MORE FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION AREAS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG TO EAST OF
A SLOWLY EASTWARD ADVANCING SFC TROUGH/DOUBLE BARRELED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL S/WV. BOTH THE GFS/EC
FAVOR THE HEAVIER QPF TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA NEAR THE
BASE OF THE MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH AND WHERE MODELS SUGGEST THE
SOUTHERN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO TRACK. STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT IT
APPEARS MODELS ARE TRENDING IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED DIRECTION.
DISCARDED THE NAM OUTPUT FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE FOR THIS
PERIOD AS IT IS AN OUTLIER.

SNOW ENDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES
FILTERING WEST INTO THE STATE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER CHANCE AT WINTER WEATHER RETURNS WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS ADVERTISE ANOTHER S/WV
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. NEEDLESS TO SAY HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME FOR THIS FEATURE.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LOWER 50S WHERE THERE IS NO
SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING (KISN AND KDIK) WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR 03-06
UTC...AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS BY AROUND 12 UTC AT KMOT AND KBIS.
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN AT CENTRAL ND SITES ONCE THE
ARRIVE. BUT PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LOW VFR CEILINGS AT KISN AND KDIK
12-18Z BEFORE LOWERING BACK TO MVFR AFT 18Z SAT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 130353
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO BIG CHANGES AGAIN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. DID HAVE TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. ROLLA HAS DROPPED TO 20
BELOW...BUT RUGBY IS SETTING AT 4 BELOW. NAM12 FCST SFC PRES
PUSHES THE HIGH EAST OVERNIGHT SO NOT SURE ABOUT TEENS BELOW ZERO
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
FROM THE WEST. BUT JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICK SO WILL LEAVE TEMPS ALONE. MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN THE EAST TONIGHT BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF TIME LAGGED MESOSCALE MODELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. WITH COLD SURFACE
HIGH SITTING OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE FAR EAST. HOWEVER WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. THINK LOWS
WILL OCCUR SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN START TO RISE TOWARD
MORNING. CURRENT TIMING FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING WEST LOOKS
GOOD IN THE WEST WITH RETURNS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX IN WESTERN ND AND SNOWFALL IN CENTRAL ND ON SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM AND MORE RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS ALL
SUGGEST A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN ND TONIGHT
AND INTO CENTRAL ND BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THOSE SIMULATIONS
ALL SUGGEST LIQUID-EQUIVALENT MOISTURE TOTALS WILL BE SMALL AND
THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THIS WEAK...WARM-ADVECTION-INDUCED
BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.
GUIDANCE EXPECTS THIS SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY...WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY INITIALLY.

ON SATURDAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RISE INTO THE +3 TO
+6 C RANGE IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. APPLYING THE TOP-DOWN METHOD TO MODEL-FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORTS A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW
IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF HIGHWAYS 85 AND 22 DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TAKING THE
12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL SUITE AT FACE VALUE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A
RELATIVE LULL IN VERTICAL MOTION DURING THE TIME DURING WHICH THE
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS ALOFT...AND THUS
THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY OCCURRING WHEN AN IMPACT-
WORTHY TYPE OCCUR IS IN QUESTION. MOREOVER...AN IN-HOUSE MODEL OF
ROAD TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THEY MAY RISE WELL ABOVE 32 F SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TOO...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND WILL LIKELY WARM UP ENOUGH
FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW INSTEAD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. WE THUS
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HOIST ANY HEADLINES FOR FREEZING
RAIN AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER THERE
WILL ACTUALLY BE ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BEGIN COOLING AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL LIKELY INDUCE INCREASING PRECIPITATION IN
THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE 12 UTC CONVECTION-
ALLOWING...NCEP-RUN WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THEIR SIMULATION OF THAT PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODEL RESULTS ARE LIKELY A RESULT OF SEASONABLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT...BUT FORCING AND UPRIGHT INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION LIKE THAT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. REGARDLESS...WE HAVE 40-60 PERCENT POPS IN PLACE FOR
MOST AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ONGOING ACTIVE WEATHER OR PERHAPS THE BEGINNING OF ACTIVE WEATHER
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT. WE REMAIN
ACTIVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A QUIETER AND WARMER
PERIOD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

CONTINUING FROM THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...COOLING ALOFT WITH
MID LEVEL CAA AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN PRIMARILY
SNOW SATURDAY EVENING...SO HAVE NO MENTION OF FREEZING
PRECIPITATION 00Z AND ONWARD. STILL UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT AND
AMOUNTS OF SNOW...BUT WHEN LEANING TOWARDS THE 12/18Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF...RESULTS IN THE MORE FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION AREAS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG TO EAST OF
A SLOWLY EASTWARD ADVANCING SFC TROUGH/DOUBLE BARRELED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL S/WV. BOTH THE GFS/EC
FAVOR THE HEAVIER QPF TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA NEAR THE
BASE OF THE MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH AND WHERE MODELS SUGGEST THE
SOUTHERN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO TRACK. STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT IT
APPEARS MODELS ARE TRENDING IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED DIRECTION.
DISCARDED THE NAM OUTPUT FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE FOR THIS
PERIOD AS IT IS AN OUTLIER.

SNOW ENDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES
FILTERING WEST INTO THE STATE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER CHANCE AT WINTER WEATHER RETURNS WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS ADVERTISE ANOTHER S/WV
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. NEEDLESS TO SAY HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME FOR THIS FEATURE.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LOWER 50S WHERE THERE IS NO
SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING (KISN AND KDIK) WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR 03-06
UTC...AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS BY AROUND 12 UTC AT KMOT AND KBIS.
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN AT CENTRAL ND SITES ONCE THE
ARRIVE. BUT PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LOW VFR CEILINGS AT KISN AND KDIK
12-18Z BEFORE LOWERING BACK TO MVFR AFT 18Z SAT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 130041
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO SIGFINIFCANT CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. WITH COLD SURFACE
HIGH SITTING OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE FAR EAST. HOWEVER WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. THINK LOWS
WILL OCCUR SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN START TO RISE TOWARD
MORNING. CURRENT TIMING FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING WEST LOOKS
GOOD IN THE WEST WITH RETURNS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX IN WESTERN ND AND SNOWFALL IN CENTRAL ND ON SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM AND MORE RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS ALL
SUGGEST A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN ND TONIGHT
AND INTO CENTRAL ND BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THOSE SIMULATIONS
ALL SUGGEST LIQUID-EQUIVALENT MOISTURE TOTALS WILL BE SMALL AND
THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THIS WEAK...WARM-ADVECTION-INDUCED
BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.
GUIDANCE EXPECTS THIS SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY...WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY INITIALLY.

ON SATURDAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RISE INTO THE +3 TO
+6 C RANGE IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. APPLYING THE TOP-DOWN METHOD TO MODEL-FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORTS A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW
IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF HIGHWAYS 85 AND 22 DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TAKING THE
12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL SUITE AT FACE VALUE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A
RELATIVE LULL IN VERTICAL MOTION DURING THE TIME DURING WHICH THE
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS ALOFT...AND THUS
THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY OCCURRING WHEN AN IMPACT-
WORTHY TYPE OCCUR IS IN QUESTION. MOREOVER...AN IN-HOUSE MODEL OF
ROAD TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THEY MAY RISE WELL ABOVE 32 F SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TOO...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND WILL LIKELY WARM UP ENOUGH
FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW INSTEAD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. WE THUS
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HOIST ANY HEADLINES FOR FREEZING
RAIN AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER THERE
WILL ACTUALLY BE ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BEGIN COOLING AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL LIKELY INDUCE INCREASING PRECIPITATION IN
THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE 12 UTC CONVECTION-
ALLOWING...NCEP-RUN WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THEIR SIMULATION OF THAT PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODEL RESULTS ARE LIKELY A RESULT OF SEASONABLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT...BUT FORCING AND UPRIGHT INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION LIKE THAT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. REGARDLESS...WE HAVE 40-60 PERCENT POPS IN PLACE FOR
MOST AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ONGOING ACTIVE WEATHER OR PERHAPS THE BEGINNING OF ACTIVE WEATHER
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT. WE REMAIN
ACTIVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A QUIETER AND WARMER
PERIOD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

CONTINUING FROM THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...COOLING ALOFT WITH
MID LEVEL CAA AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN PRIMARILY
SNOW SATURDAY EVENING...SO HAVE NO MENTION OF FREEZING
PRECIPITATION 00Z AND ONWARD. STILL UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT AND
AMOUNTS OF SNOW...BUT WHEN LEANING TOWARDS THE 12/18Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF...RESULTS IN THE MORE FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION AREAS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG TO EAST OF
A SLOWLY EASTWARD ADVANCING SFC TROUGH/DOUBLE BARRELED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL S/WV. BOTH THE GFS/EC
FAVOR THE HEAVIER QPF TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA NEAR THE
BASE OF THE MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH AND WHERE MODELS SUGGEST THE
SOUTHERN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO TRACK. STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT IT
APPEARS MODELS ARE TRENDING IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED DIRECTION.
DISCARDED THE NAM OUTPUT FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE FOR THIS
PERIOD AS IT IS AN OUTLIER.

SNOW ENDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES
FILTERING WEST INTO THE STATE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER CHANCE AT WINTER WEATHER RETURNS WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS ADVERTISE ANOTHER S/WV
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. NEEDLESS TO SAY HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME FOR THIS FEATURE.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LOWER 50S WHERE THERE IS NO
SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING TO MVFR 03-06 UTC...AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS BY AROUND 12 UTC.
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY AT CENTRAL ND SITES
WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LOW VFR CEILINGS AT KISN AND KDIK 12-18Z
BEFORE LOWERING BACK TO MVFR AFT 18Z SAT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 130041
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO SIGFINIFCANT CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. WITH COLD SURFACE
HIGH SITTING OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE FAR EAST. HOWEVER WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. THINK LOWS
WILL OCCUR SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN START TO RISE TOWARD
MORNING. CURRENT TIMING FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING WEST LOOKS
GOOD IN THE WEST WITH RETURNS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX IN WESTERN ND AND SNOWFALL IN CENTRAL ND ON SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM AND MORE RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS ALL
SUGGEST A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN ND TONIGHT
AND INTO CENTRAL ND BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THOSE SIMULATIONS
ALL SUGGEST LIQUID-EQUIVALENT MOISTURE TOTALS WILL BE SMALL AND
THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THIS WEAK...WARM-ADVECTION-INDUCED
BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.
GUIDANCE EXPECTS THIS SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY...WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY INITIALLY.

ON SATURDAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RISE INTO THE +3 TO
+6 C RANGE IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. APPLYING THE TOP-DOWN METHOD TO MODEL-FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORTS A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW
IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF HIGHWAYS 85 AND 22 DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TAKING THE
12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL SUITE AT FACE VALUE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A
RELATIVE LULL IN VERTICAL MOTION DURING THE TIME DURING WHICH THE
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS ALOFT...AND THUS
THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY OCCURRING WHEN AN IMPACT-
WORTHY TYPE OCCUR IS IN QUESTION. MOREOVER...AN IN-HOUSE MODEL OF
ROAD TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THEY MAY RISE WELL ABOVE 32 F SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TOO...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND WILL LIKELY WARM UP ENOUGH
FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW INSTEAD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. WE THUS
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HOIST ANY HEADLINES FOR FREEZING
RAIN AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER THERE
WILL ACTUALLY BE ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BEGIN COOLING AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL LIKELY INDUCE INCREASING PRECIPITATION IN
THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE 12 UTC CONVECTION-
ALLOWING...NCEP-RUN WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THEIR SIMULATION OF THAT PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODEL RESULTS ARE LIKELY A RESULT OF SEASONABLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT...BUT FORCING AND UPRIGHT INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION LIKE THAT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. REGARDLESS...WE HAVE 40-60 PERCENT POPS IN PLACE FOR
MOST AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ONGOING ACTIVE WEATHER OR PERHAPS THE BEGINNING OF ACTIVE WEATHER
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT. WE REMAIN
ACTIVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A QUIETER AND WARMER
PERIOD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

CONTINUING FROM THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...COOLING ALOFT WITH
MID LEVEL CAA AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN PRIMARILY
SNOW SATURDAY EVENING...SO HAVE NO MENTION OF FREEZING
PRECIPITATION 00Z AND ONWARD. STILL UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT AND
AMOUNTS OF SNOW...BUT WHEN LEANING TOWARDS THE 12/18Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF...RESULTS IN THE MORE FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION AREAS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG TO EAST OF
A SLOWLY EASTWARD ADVANCING SFC TROUGH/DOUBLE BARRELED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL S/WV. BOTH THE GFS/EC
FAVOR THE HEAVIER QPF TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA NEAR THE
BASE OF THE MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH AND WHERE MODELS SUGGEST THE
SOUTHERN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO TRACK. STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT IT
APPEARS MODELS ARE TRENDING IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED DIRECTION.
DISCARDED THE NAM OUTPUT FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE FOR THIS
PERIOD AS IT IS AN OUTLIER.

SNOW ENDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES
FILTERING WEST INTO THE STATE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER CHANCE AT WINTER WEATHER RETURNS WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS ADVERTISE ANOTHER S/WV
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. NEEDLESS TO SAY HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME FOR THIS FEATURE.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LOWER 50S WHERE THERE IS NO
SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING TO MVFR 03-06 UTC...AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS BY AROUND 12 UTC.
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY AT CENTRAL ND SITES
WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LOW VFR CEILINGS AT KISN AND KDIK 12-18Z
BEFORE LOWERING BACK TO MVFR AFT 18Z SAT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 130041
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO SIGFINIFCANT CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. WITH COLD SURFACE
HIGH SITTING OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE FAR EAST. HOWEVER WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. THINK LOWS
WILL OCCUR SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN START TO RISE TOWARD
MORNING. CURRENT TIMING FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING WEST LOOKS
GOOD IN THE WEST WITH RETURNS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX IN WESTERN ND AND SNOWFALL IN CENTRAL ND ON SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM AND MORE RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS ALL
SUGGEST A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN ND TONIGHT
AND INTO CENTRAL ND BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THOSE SIMULATIONS
ALL SUGGEST LIQUID-EQUIVALENT MOISTURE TOTALS WILL BE SMALL AND
THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THIS WEAK...WARM-ADVECTION-INDUCED
BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.
GUIDANCE EXPECTS THIS SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY...WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY INITIALLY.

ON SATURDAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RISE INTO THE +3 TO
+6 C RANGE IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. APPLYING THE TOP-DOWN METHOD TO MODEL-FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORTS A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW
IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF HIGHWAYS 85 AND 22 DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TAKING THE
12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL SUITE AT FACE VALUE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A
RELATIVE LULL IN VERTICAL MOTION DURING THE TIME DURING WHICH THE
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS ALOFT...AND THUS
THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY OCCURRING WHEN AN IMPACT-
WORTHY TYPE OCCUR IS IN QUESTION. MOREOVER...AN IN-HOUSE MODEL OF
ROAD TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THEY MAY RISE WELL ABOVE 32 F SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TOO...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND WILL LIKELY WARM UP ENOUGH
FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW INSTEAD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. WE THUS
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HOIST ANY HEADLINES FOR FREEZING
RAIN AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER THERE
WILL ACTUALLY BE ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BEGIN COOLING AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL LIKELY INDUCE INCREASING PRECIPITATION IN
THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE 12 UTC CONVECTION-
ALLOWING...NCEP-RUN WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THEIR SIMULATION OF THAT PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODEL RESULTS ARE LIKELY A RESULT OF SEASONABLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT...BUT FORCING AND UPRIGHT INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION LIKE THAT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. REGARDLESS...WE HAVE 40-60 PERCENT POPS IN PLACE FOR
MOST AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ONGOING ACTIVE WEATHER OR PERHAPS THE BEGINNING OF ACTIVE WEATHER
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT. WE REMAIN
ACTIVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A QUIETER AND WARMER
PERIOD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

CONTINUING FROM THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...COOLING ALOFT WITH
MID LEVEL CAA AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN PRIMARILY
SNOW SATURDAY EVENING...SO HAVE NO MENTION OF FREEZING
PRECIPITATION 00Z AND ONWARD. STILL UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT AND
AMOUNTS OF SNOW...BUT WHEN LEANING TOWARDS THE 12/18Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF...RESULTS IN THE MORE FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION AREAS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG TO EAST OF
A SLOWLY EASTWARD ADVANCING SFC TROUGH/DOUBLE BARRELED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL S/WV. BOTH THE GFS/EC
FAVOR THE HEAVIER QPF TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA NEAR THE
BASE OF THE MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH AND WHERE MODELS SUGGEST THE
SOUTHERN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO TRACK. STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT IT
APPEARS MODELS ARE TRENDING IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED DIRECTION.
DISCARDED THE NAM OUTPUT FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE FOR THIS
PERIOD AS IT IS AN OUTLIER.

SNOW ENDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES
FILTERING WEST INTO THE STATE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER CHANCE AT WINTER WEATHER RETURNS WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS ADVERTISE ANOTHER S/WV
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. NEEDLESS TO SAY HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME FOR THIS FEATURE.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LOWER 50S WHERE THERE IS NO
SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING TO MVFR 03-06 UTC...AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS BY AROUND 12 UTC.
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY AT CENTRAL ND SITES
WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LOW VFR CEILINGS AT KISN AND KDIK 12-18Z
BEFORE LOWERING BACK TO MVFR AFT 18Z SAT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 122220
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
420 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX IN WESTERN ND AND SNOWFALL IN CENTRAL ND ON SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM AND MORE RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS ALL
SUGGEST A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN ND TONIGHT
AND INTO CENTRAL ND BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THOSE SIMULATIONS
ALL SUGGEST LIQUID-EQUIVALENT MOISTURE TOTALS WILL BE SMALL AND
THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THIS WEAK...WARM-ADVECTION-INDUCED
BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.
GUIDANCE EXPECTS THIS SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY...WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY INITIALLY.

ON SATURDAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RISE INTO THE +3 TO
+6 C RANGE IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. APPLYING THE TOP-DOWN METHOD TO MODEL-FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORTS A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW
IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF HIGHWAYS 85 AND 22 DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TAKING THE
12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL SUITE AT FACE VALUE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A
RELATIVE LULL IN VERTICAL MOTION DURING THE TIME DURING WHICH THE
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS ALOFT...AND THUS
THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY OCCURRING WHEN AN IMPACT-
WORTHY TYPE OCCUR IS IN QUESTION. MOREOVER...AN IN-HOUSE MODEL OF
ROAD TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THEY MAY RISE WELL ABOVE 32 F SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TOO...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND WILL LIKELY WARM UP ENOUGH
FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW INSTEAD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. WE THUS
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HOIST ANY HEADLINES FOR FREEZING
RAIN AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER THERE
WILL ACTUALLY BE ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BEGIN COOLING AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL LIKELY INDUCE INCREASING PRECIPITATION IN
THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE 12 UTC CONVECTION-
ALLOWING...NCEP-RUN WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM ARE LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THEIR SIMULATION OF THAT PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODEL RESULTS ARE LIKELY A RESULT OF SEASONABLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT...BUT FORCING AND UPRIGHT INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION LIKE THAT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. REGARDLESS...WE HAVE 40-60 PERCENT POPS IN PLACE FOR
MOST AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ONGOING ACTIVE WEATHER OR PERHAPS THE BEGINNING OF ACTIVE WEATHER
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT. WE REMAIN
ACTIVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A QUIETER AND WARMER
PERIOD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

CONTINUING FROM THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...COOLING ALOFT WITH
MID LEVEL CAA AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN PRIMARILY
SNOW SATURDAY EVENING...SO HAVE NO MENTION OF FREEZING
PRECIPITATION 00Z AND ONWARD. STILL UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT AND
AMOUNTS OF SNOW...BUT WHEN LEANING TOWARDS THE 12/18Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF...RESULTS IN THE MORE FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION AREAS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG TO EAST OF
A SLOWLY EASTWARD ADVANCING SFC TROUGH/DOUBLE BARRELED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL S/WV. BOTH THE GFS/EC
FAVOR THE HEAVIER QPF TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA NEAR THE
BASE OF THE MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH AND WHERE MODELS SUGGEST THE
SOUTHERN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO TRACK. STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT IT
APPEARS MODELS ARE TRENDING IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED DIRECTION.
DISCARDED THE NAM OUTPUT FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE FOR THIS
PERIOD AS IT IS AN OUTLIER.

SNOW ENDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES
FILTERING WEST INTO THE STATE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER CHANCE AT WINTER WEATHER RETURNS WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS ADVERTISE ANOTHER S/WV
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. NEEDLESS TO SAY HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME FOR THIS FEATURE.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LOWER 50S WHERE THERE IS NO
SNOW COVER.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST IN SOUTHWEST ND THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. WE EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...ALONG WITH A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR PERHAPS
SLEET IN FAR WESTERN ND LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CJS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 121834
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

WE LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ROLETTE COUNTY EXPIRE AT NOON
CST AS OBSERVED WIND CHILLS ARE ABOVE -25 F AT ROLLA AT 18 UTC. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THE MIDDAY FORECAST UPDATE AS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS LIGHT WINDS...AND SUNSHINE OVER ALL BUT
SOUTHWESTERN ND /WHERE IT WILL BE CLOUDY/ THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

WE ADDED A FEW FLURRIES INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
SOUTHWEST ND WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AT DICKINSON
AND AND HETTINGER THE LAST HOUR...AND REFINED SKY COVER A BIT OVER
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND WHERE STRATUS
BETWEEN BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN IS BEGINNING TO SHRINK. THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 18 UTC FOR ROLETTE COUNTY WITH
OBSERVED WIND CHILLS AROUND -35 F THERE THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE RECOVERY EXPECTED TODAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. FORECAST BLENDED TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE TEMPERATURES (AND ASSOCIATED
WIND CHILL VALUES) AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WEST
AND CENTRAL...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A
BRIEF TIME IN THE SOUTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH ITS AXIS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY BELOW ZERO IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND SKIES HAD CLEARED THERE AS WELL. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST
LOW CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ABOVE ZERO
IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH THE CENTER REACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVER MANITOBA
AND ND/SD/MN. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH A NORTH WIND
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...RESULTING IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ROLETTE
COUNTY UNTIL NOON TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN JAMES
VALLEY TO THE 20S ABOVE ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA/IOWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH
MOVES SOUTHEAST...THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH IT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT AIDED BY H925-H850 SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MONTANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A TEMPERATURE PROFILE THAT FAVORS
LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST - JUST AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A WINTRY MIX AND ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY HIGHLIGHTS
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE 00 AND 06 UTC
NAM/NAM NEST...AND 00 UTC GFS/GEM HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE
DEPTH OF THE WAVE WITH GREATER QPF...ALL SUPPORTED BY THE 00 UTC
GEFS/SREF MEANS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS REMAINS GIVEN
THE FLUCTUATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE A WARM LAYER ALOFT OF +2 TO +4 C
IS FORECAST TO RESIDE LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO ERODE THE WARM LAYER. ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE. MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE CENTRAL BY
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE STRONGER TRENDS IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE 06 UTC AND 12 UTC SOLUTIONS CONTINUE...WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH SNOW AND ICE POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST IN SOUTHWEST ND THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. WE EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...ALONG WITH A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR PERHAPS
SLEET IN FAR WESTERN ND LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...CJS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 121601
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1001 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

WE ADDED A FEW FLURRIES INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
SOUTHWEST ND WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AT DICKINSON
AND AND HETTINGER THE LAST HOUR...AND REFINED SKY COVER A BIT OVER
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND WHERE STRATUS
BETWEEN BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN IS BEGINNING TO SHRINK. THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 18 UTC FOR ROLETTE COUNTY WITH
OBSERVED WIND CHILLS AROUND -35 F THERE THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE RECOVERY EXPECTED TODAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. FORECAST BLENDED TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE TEMPERATURES (AND ASSOCIATED
WIND CHILL VALUES) AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WEST
AND CENTRAL...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A
BRIEF TIME IN THE SOUTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH ITS AXIS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY BELOW ZERO IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND SKIES HAD CLEARED THERE AS WELL. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST
LOW CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ABOVE ZERO
IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH THE CENTER REACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVER MANITOBA
AND ND/SD/MN. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH A NORTH WIND
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...RESULTING IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ROLETTE
COUNTY UNTIL NOON TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN JAMES
VALLEY TO THE 20S ABOVE ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA/IOWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH
MOVES SOUTHEAST...THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH IT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT AIDED BY H925-H850 SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MONTANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A TEMPERATURE PROFILE THAT FAVORS
LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST - JUST AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A WINTRY MIX AND ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY HIGHLIGHTS
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE 00 AND 06 UTC
NAM/NAM NEST...AND 00 UTC GFS/GEM HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE
DEPTH OF THE WAVE WITH GREATER QPF...ALL SUPPORTED BY THE 00 UTC
GEFS/SREF MEANS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS REMAINS GIVEN
THE FLUCTUATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE A WARM LAYER ALOFT OF +2 TO +4 C
IS FORECAST TO RESIDE LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO ERODE THE WARM LAYER. ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE. MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE CENTRAL BY
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE STRONGER TRENDS IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE 06 UTC AND 12 UTC SOLUTIONS CONTINUE...WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH SNOW AND ICE POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING
INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BUILDS SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS AT KMOT AND KISN. BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KDIK AND
KJMS WILL BECOME VFR BY AROUND 18Z AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTH. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS RETURN AT KDIK AND KISN AROUND 06Z FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. LOW CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW SPREADS
EAST TOWARDS KMOT AND KBIS BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ005.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV/CJS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 121236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE RECOVERY EXPECTED TODAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. FORECAST BLENDED TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE TEMPERATURES (AND ASSOCIATED
WIND CHILL VALUES) AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WEST
AND CENTRAL...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A
BRIEF TIME IN THE SOUTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH ITS AXIS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY BELOW ZERO IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND SKIES HAD CLEARED THERE AS WELL. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST
LOW CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ABOVE ZERO
IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH THE CENTER REACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVER MANITOBA
AND ND/SD/MN. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH A NORTH WIND
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...RESULTING IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ROLETTE
COUNTY UNTIL NOON TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN JAMES
VALLEY TO THE 20S ABOVE ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA/IOWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH
MOVES SOUTHEAST...THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH IT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT AIDED BY H925-H850 SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MONTANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A TEMPERATURE PROFILE THAT FAVORS
LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST - JUST AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A WINTRY MIX AND ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY HIGHLIGHTS
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE 00 AND 06 UTC
NAM/NAM NEST...AND 00 UTC GFS/GEM HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE
DEPTH OF THE WAVE WITH GREATER QPF...ALL SUPPORTED BY THE 00 UTC
GEFS/SREF MEANS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS REMAINS GIVEN
THE FLUCTUATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE A WARM LAYER ALOFT OF +2 TO +4 C
IS FORECAST TO RESIDE LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO ERODE THE WARM LAYER. ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE. MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE CENTRAL BY
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE STRONGER TRENDS IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE 06 UTC AND 12 UTC SOLUTIONS CONTINUE...WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH SNOW AND ICE POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING
INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BUILDS SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS AT KMOT AND KISN. BAND OF MVFR-OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS AT
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS WILL BECOME VFR BY AROUND 15Z AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO DROP SOUTH. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS RETURN AT KDIK AND KISN AROUND 06Z
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. LOW CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW
SPREADS EAST TOWARDS KMOT AND KBIS BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ005.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD





000
FXUS63 KBIS 120942
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
342 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE TEMPERATURES (AND ASSOCIATED
WIND CHILL VALUES) AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WEST
AND CENTRAL...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A
BRIEF TIME IN THE SOUTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH ITS AXIS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY BELOW ZERO IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND SKIES HAD CLEARED THERE AS WELL. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST
LOW CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ABOVE ZERO
IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH THE CENTER REACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVER MANITOBA
AND ND/SD/MN. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH A NORTH WIND
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...RESULTING IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ROLETTE
COUNTY UNTIL NOON TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN JAMES
VALLEY TO THE 20S ABOVE ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA/IOWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH
MOVES SOUTHEAST...THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH IT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT AIDED BY H925-H850 SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MONTANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A TEMPERATURE PROFILE THAT FAVORS
LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST - JUST AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE
TONIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A WINTRY MIX AND ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY HIGHLIGHTS
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE 00 AND 06 UTC
NAM/NAM NEST...AND 00 UTC GFS/GEM HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE
DEPTH OF THE WAVE WITH GREATER QPF...ALL SUPPORTED BY THE 00 UTC
GEFS/SREF MEANS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS REMAINS GIVEN
THE FLUCTUATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE A WARM LAYER ALOFT OF +2 TO +4 C
IS FORECAST TO RESIDE LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO ERODE THE WARM LAYER. ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE. MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE CENTRAL BY
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE STRONGER TRENDS IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE 06 UTC AND 12 UTC SOLUTIONS CONTINUE...WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH SNOW AND ICE POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

BAND OF MVFR-OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AT KBIS AND KDIK. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
CANADA WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BUILDS SOUTH
AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT CIGS AT KMOT AND KJMS AND KISN FROM MVFR TO
VFR. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH CIGS BECOME VFR AT KBIS AND
KDIK. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS RETURN AT KDIK BEFORE
06Z FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...WARM ADVECTION...AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF SNOW ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ005.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 120617
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1217 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

LIGHT RADAR RETURNS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MOVING
SOUTH...BUT NOT SEEING ANY REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE
GROUND. COULD BE VIRGA OR FLURRIES AND WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCE
MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW WEST HALF OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

BAND OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE
FROM THE NORTH AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. HIGHER
REFLECTIVITIES EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE ALREADY TRACKED INTO
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. COULD BE A COUPLE MORE WAVES OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AS WEAK PVA REMAINS OVER WESTERN ND. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH 20-30 POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
TAPERING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE A HALF
INCH. CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE SO NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES OTHER THAN POPULATING LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING AN INCREASING AREA OF LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. LIGHT SNOW IS NOW
BEING REPORTED ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST SO WILL BUMP UP
POPS TO HIGH CHC/LIKELY THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON THIS AND GLOBAL MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAR WEST. FOR NOW HAVE EXTENDED SOME CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT. WILL SEE HOW PRECIP EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS EVEN MORE AND EXTEND INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL. STILL LOOKING FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY A HALF
INCH OR LESS...WITH A FEW AREAS MAYBE SEEING UP TO AN INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LIGHT SNOW IS RAPIDLY ENDING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN TONIGHT
IN WESTERN ND.

AS OF 21 UTC...THE BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW IS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND IS PAST BEULAH AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND LINES UP
WELL WITH A TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF SHORT RANGE...HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO BE COMPLETELY GONE
BY 00 UTC. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE RAPID REDUCTION IN MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS THAT DROVE THE SNOW EARLIER...WHICH OCCURRED AS THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DROVE THE THERMAL RESPONSE ALOFT
MOVED INTO SD AND NEB /AS SEEN BY THE DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR VALENTINE...NEB AT MID AFTERNOON/.

TONIGHT...THE 12 UTC MODEL SUITE CALLED FOR ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE
TO CROSS WESTERN ND IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SCENARIO COULD
DRIVE ANOTHER...VERY LIGHT BATCH OF SNOW ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
LINGERING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE-TYPE
POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO OVER WESTERN ND...AND EVEN SLIGHT-CHANCE
POPS INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND. WE DID GIVE SOME CONSIDERATION TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND
TONIGHT SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN PLACES LIKE BOWMAN SHOW THAT
THE SATURATED LAYER IN THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS LAYER WILL BE WARMER
THAN -12 C. HOWEVER...WE HELD OFF INCLUDING THAT IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT SINCE VERTICAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK...AND
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THE IMPULSE ALOFT MAY YIELD
A FEEDER-SEEDER MECHANISM...AND THUS FLURRIES.

MEANWHILE...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...FORECAST LOWS WILL
BE FROM 0 TO 10 BELOW FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT PER THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLEND WE USED TO BUILD
THE FORECAST. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS
ROLETTE COUNTY...AND WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR 10 MPH...WIND CHILLS
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL RUN FROM -20 T0 -30 F THERE.
WE THUS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ROLETTE COUNTY FROM 06
TO 18 UTC IN A COLLABORATIVE MOVE WITH THE GRAND FORKS NWS OFFICE.

ON FRIDAY...A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PLACE WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 0 AT ROLLA TO 25 AT BOWMAN...BUT THE FORECAST IS DRY
GIVEN A LACK OF SIGNAL FOR ADDITIONAL NORTHWEST-FLOW WAVES IN THE
12 UTC MODEL OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION COUPLED WITH AN
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BRING SEVERAL SHOTS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
EMBEDDED S/WV`S WILL TICKLE THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THEY PASS THROUGH
ALOFT ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIFT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT/TRANSITION ZONE FROM FREEZING TO
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ALOFT...WITH ALL LIQUID IN THE WARM SECTOR TO
THE WEST. THE EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL ALSO DEPEND ON
SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS MIX WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER
OF THE STATE.

A RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO GENERATE ALL SNOW AND MAY
BRING NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER EAST
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ROUGHLY 2-4 INCHES. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW FORECAST MODEL CYCLES.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 50S WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

BAND OF MVFR-OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AT KBIS AND KDIK. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
CANADA WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BUILDS SOUTH
AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT CIGS AT KMOT AND KJMS AND KISN FROM MVFR TO
VFR. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH CIGS BECOME VFR AT KBIS AND
KDIK. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS RETURN AT KDIK BEFORE
06Z FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...WARM ADVECTION...AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF SNOW ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ005.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 120617
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1217 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

LIGHT RADAR RETURNS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MOVING
SOUTH...BUT NOT SEEING ANY REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE
GROUND. COULD BE VIRGA OR FLURRIES AND WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCE
MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW WEST HALF OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

BAND OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE
FROM THE NORTH AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. HIGHER
REFLECTIVITIES EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE ALREADY TRACKED INTO
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. COULD BE A COUPLE MORE WAVES OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AS WEAK PVA REMAINS OVER WESTERN ND. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH 20-30 POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
TAPERING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE A HALF
INCH. CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE SO NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES OTHER THAN POPULATING LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING AN INCREASING AREA OF LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. LIGHT SNOW IS NOW
BEING REPORTED ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST SO WILL BUMP UP
POPS TO HIGH CHC/LIKELY THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON THIS AND GLOBAL MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAR WEST. FOR NOW HAVE EXTENDED SOME CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT. WILL SEE HOW PRECIP EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS EVEN MORE AND EXTEND INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL. STILL LOOKING FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY A HALF
INCH OR LESS...WITH A FEW AREAS MAYBE SEEING UP TO AN INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LIGHT SNOW IS RAPIDLY ENDING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN TONIGHT
IN WESTERN ND.

AS OF 21 UTC...THE BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW IS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND IS PAST BEULAH AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND LINES UP
WELL WITH A TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF SHORT RANGE...HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO BE COMPLETELY GONE
BY 00 UTC. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE RAPID REDUCTION IN MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS THAT DROVE THE SNOW EARLIER...WHICH OCCURRED AS THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DROVE THE THERMAL RESPONSE ALOFT
MOVED INTO SD AND NEB /AS SEEN BY THE DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR VALENTINE...NEB AT MID AFTERNOON/.

TONIGHT...THE 12 UTC MODEL SUITE CALLED FOR ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE
TO CROSS WESTERN ND IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SCENARIO COULD
DRIVE ANOTHER...VERY LIGHT BATCH OF SNOW ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
LINGERING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE-TYPE
POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO OVER WESTERN ND...AND EVEN SLIGHT-CHANCE
POPS INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND. WE DID GIVE SOME CONSIDERATION TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND
TONIGHT SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN PLACES LIKE BOWMAN SHOW THAT
THE SATURATED LAYER IN THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS LAYER WILL BE WARMER
THAN -12 C. HOWEVER...WE HELD OFF INCLUDING THAT IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT SINCE VERTICAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK...AND
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THE IMPULSE ALOFT MAY YIELD
A FEEDER-SEEDER MECHANISM...AND THUS FLURRIES.

MEANWHILE...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...FORECAST LOWS WILL
BE FROM 0 TO 10 BELOW FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT PER THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLEND WE USED TO BUILD
THE FORECAST. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS
ROLETTE COUNTY...AND WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR 10 MPH...WIND CHILLS
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL RUN FROM -20 T0 -30 F THERE.
WE THUS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ROLETTE COUNTY FROM 06
TO 18 UTC IN A COLLABORATIVE MOVE WITH THE GRAND FORKS NWS OFFICE.

ON FRIDAY...A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PLACE WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 0 AT ROLLA TO 25 AT BOWMAN...BUT THE FORECAST IS DRY
GIVEN A LACK OF SIGNAL FOR ADDITIONAL NORTHWEST-FLOW WAVES IN THE
12 UTC MODEL OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION COUPLED WITH AN
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BRING SEVERAL SHOTS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
EMBEDDED S/WV`S WILL TICKLE THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THEY PASS THROUGH
ALOFT ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIFT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT/TRANSITION ZONE FROM FREEZING TO
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ALOFT...WITH ALL LIQUID IN THE WARM SECTOR TO
THE WEST. THE EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL ALSO DEPEND ON
SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS MIX WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER
OF THE STATE.

A RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO GENERATE ALL SNOW AND MAY
BRING NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER EAST
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ROUGHLY 2-4 INCHES. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW FORECAST MODEL CYCLES.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 50S WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

BAND OF MVFR-OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AT KBIS AND KDIK. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
CANADA WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BUILDS SOUTH
AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT CIGS AT KMOT AND KJMS AND KISN FROM MVFR TO
VFR. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH CIGS BECOME VFR AT KBIS AND
KDIK. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS RETURN AT KDIK BEFORE
06Z FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...WARM ADVECTION...AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF SNOW ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ005.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 120617
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1217 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

LIGHT RADAR RETURNS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MOVING
SOUTH...BUT NOT SEEING ANY REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE
GROUND. COULD BE VIRGA OR FLURRIES AND WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCE
MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW WEST HALF OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

BAND OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE
FROM THE NORTH AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. HIGHER
REFLECTIVITIES EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE ALREADY TRACKED INTO
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. COULD BE A COUPLE MORE WAVES OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AS WEAK PVA REMAINS OVER WESTERN ND. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH 20-30 POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
TAPERING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE A HALF
INCH. CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE SO NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES OTHER THAN POPULATING LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING AN INCREASING AREA OF LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. LIGHT SNOW IS NOW
BEING REPORTED ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST SO WILL BUMP UP
POPS TO HIGH CHC/LIKELY THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON THIS AND GLOBAL MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAR WEST. FOR NOW HAVE EXTENDED SOME CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT. WILL SEE HOW PRECIP EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS EVEN MORE AND EXTEND INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL. STILL LOOKING FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY A HALF
INCH OR LESS...WITH A FEW AREAS MAYBE SEEING UP TO AN INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LIGHT SNOW IS RAPIDLY ENDING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN TONIGHT
IN WESTERN ND.

AS OF 21 UTC...THE BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW IS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND IS PAST BEULAH AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND LINES UP
WELL WITH A TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF SHORT RANGE...HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO BE COMPLETELY GONE
BY 00 UTC. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE RAPID REDUCTION IN MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS THAT DROVE THE SNOW EARLIER...WHICH OCCURRED AS THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DROVE THE THERMAL RESPONSE ALOFT
MOVED INTO SD AND NEB /AS SEEN BY THE DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR VALENTINE...NEB AT MID AFTERNOON/.

TONIGHT...THE 12 UTC MODEL SUITE CALLED FOR ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE
TO CROSS WESTERN ND IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SCENARIO COULD
DRIVE ANOTHER...VERY LIGHT BATCH OF SNOW ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
LINGERING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE-TYPE
POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO OVER WESTERN ND...AND EVEN SLIGHT-CHANCE
POPS INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND. WE DID GIVE SOME CONSIDERATION TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND
TONIGHT SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN PLACES LIKE BOWMAN SHOW THAT
THE SATURATED LAYER IN THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS LAYER WILL BE WARMER
THAN -12 C. HOWEVER...WE HELD OFF INCLUDING THAT IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT SINCE VERTICAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK...AND
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THE IMPULSE ALOFT MAY YIELD
A FEEDER-SEEDER MECHANISM...AND THUS FLURRIES.

MEANWHILE...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...FORECAST LOWS WILL
BE FROM 0 TO 10 BELOW FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT PER THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLEND WE USED TO BUILD
THE FORECAST. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS
ROLETTE COUNTY...AND WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR 10 MPH...WIND CHILLS
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL RUN FROM -20 T0 -30 F THERE.
WE THUS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ROLETTE COUNTY FROM 06
TO 18 UTC IN A COLLABORATIVE MOVE WITH THE GRAND FORKS NWS OFFICE.

ON FRIDAY...A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PLACE WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 0 AT ROLLA TO 25 AT BOWMAN...BUT THE FORECAST IS DRY
GIVEN A LACK OF SIGNAL FOR ADDITIONAL NORTHWEST-FLOW WAVES IN THE
12 UTC MODEL OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION COUPLED WITH AN
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BRING SEVERAL SHOTS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
EMBEDDED S/WV`S WILL TICKLE THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THEY PASS THROUGH
ALOFT ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIFT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT/TRANSITION ZONE FROM FREEZING TO
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ALOFT...WITH ALL LIQUID IN THE WARM SECTOR TO
THE WEST. THE EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL ALSO DEPEND ON
SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS MIX WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER
OF THE STATE.

A RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO GENERATE ALL SNOW AND MAY
BRING NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER EAST
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ROUGHLY 2-4 INCHES. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW FORECAST MODEL CYCLES.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 50S WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

BAND OF MVFR-OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AT KBIS AND KDIK. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
CANADA WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BUILDS SOUTH
AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT CIGS AT KMOT AND KJMS AND KISN FROM MVFR TO
VFR. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH CIGS BECOME VFR AT KBIS AND
KDIK. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS RETURN AT KDIK BEFORE
06Z FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...WARM ADVECTION...AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF SNOW ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ005.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 120347
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
947 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

BAND OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE
FROM THE NORTH AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. HIGHER
REFLECTIVITIES EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE ALREADY TRACKED INTO
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. COULD BE A COUPLE MORE WAVES OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AS WEAK PVA REMAINS OVER WESTERN ND. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH 20-30 POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
TAPERING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE A HALF
INCH. CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE SO NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES OTHER THAN POPULATING LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING AN INCREASING AREA OF LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. LIGHT SNOW IS NOW
BEING REPORTED ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST SO WILL BUMP UP
POPS TO HIGH CHC/LIKELY THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON THIS AND GLOBAL MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAR WEST. FOR NOW HAVE EXTENDED SOME CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT. WILL SEE HOW PRECIP EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS EVEN MORE AND EXTEND INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL. STILL LOOKING FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY A HALF
INCH OR LESS...WITH A FEW AREAS MAYBE SEEING UP TO AN INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LIGHT SNOW IS RAPIDLY ENDING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN TONIGHT
IN WESTERN ND.

AS OF 21 UTC...THE BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW IS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND IS PAST BEULAH AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND LINES UP
WELL WITH A TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF SHORT RANGE...HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO BE COMPLETELY GONE
BY 00 UTC. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE RAPID REDUCTION IN MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS THAT DROVE THE SNOW EARLIER...WHICH OCCURRED AS THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DROVE THE THERMAL RESPONSE ALOFT
MOVED INTO SD AND NEB /AS SEEN BY THE DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR VALENTINE...NEB AT MID AFTERNOON/.

TONIGHT...THE 12 UTC MODEL SUITE CALLED FOR ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE
TO CROSS WESTERN ND IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SCENARIO COULD
DRIVE ANOTHER...VERY LIGHT BATCH OF SNOW ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
LINGERING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE-TYPE
POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO OVER WESTERN ND...AND EVEN SLIGHT-CHANCE
POPS INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND. WE DID GIVE SOME CONSIDERATION TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND
TONIGHT SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN PLACES LIKE BOWMAN SHOW THAT
THE SATURATED LAYER IN THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS LAYER WILL BE WARMER
THAN -12 C. HOWEVER...WE HELD OFF INCLUDING THAT IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT SINCE VERTICAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK...AND
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THE IMPULSE ALOFT MAY YIELD
A FEEDER-SEEDER MECHANISM...AND THUS FLURRIES.

MEANWHILE...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...FORECAST LOWS WILL
BE FROM 0 TO 10 BELOW FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT PER THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLEND WE USED TO BUILD
THE FORECAST. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS
ROLETTE COUNTY...AND WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR 10 MPH...WIND CHILLS
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL RUN FROM -20 T0 -30 F THERE.
WE THUS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ROLETTE COUNTY FROM 06
TO 18 UTC IN A COLLABORATIVE MOVE WITH THE GRAND FORKS NWS OFFICE.

ON FRIDAY...A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PLACE WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 0 AT ROLLA TO 25 AT BOWMAN...BUT THE FORECAST IS DRY
GIVEN A LACK OF SIGNAL FOR ADDITIONAL NORTHWEST-FLOW WAVES IN THE
12 UTC MODEL OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION COUPLED WITH AN
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BRING SEVERAL SHOTS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
EMBEDDED S/WV`S WILL TICKLE THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THEY PASS THROUGH
ALOFT ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIFT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT/TRANSITION ZONE FROM FREEZING TO
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ALOFT...WITH ALL LIQUID IN THE WARM SECTOR TO
THE WEST. THE EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL ALSO DEPEND ON
SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS MIX WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER
OF THE STATE.

A RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO GENERATE ALL SNOW AND MAY
BRING NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER EAST
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ROUGHLY 2-4 INCHES. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW FORECAST MODEL CYCLES.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 50S WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 937 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

BAND OF MVFR-OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES. LATE TONIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BUILDS SOUTH AND COULD LIFT
CEILINGS TO VFR...ESPECIALLY AT KMOT AND KJMS. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH VFR CEILINGS SPREAD WEST TO INCLUDE
KISN...KBIS AND KDIK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ005.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 120347
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
947 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

BAND OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE
FROM THE NORTH AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. HIGHER
REFLECTIVITIES EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE ALREADY TRACKED INTO
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. COULD BE A COUPLE MORE WAVES OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AS WEAK PVA REMAINS OVER WESTERN ND. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH 20-30 POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
TAPERING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE A HALF
INCH. CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE SO NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES OTHER THAN POPULATING LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING AN INCREASING AREA OF LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. LIGHT SNOW IS NOW
BEING REPORTED ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST SO WILL BUMP UP
POPS TO HIGH CHC/LIKELY THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON THIS AND GLOBAL MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAR WEST. FOR NOW HAVE EXTENDED SOME CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT. WILL SEE HOW PRECIP EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS EVEN MORE AND EXTEND INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL. STILL LOOKING FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY A HALF
INCH OR LESS...WITH A FEW AREAS MAYBE SEEING UP TO AN INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LIGHT SNOW IS RAPIDLY ENDING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN TONIGHT
IN WESTERN ND.

AS OF 21 UTC...THE BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW IS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND IS PAST BEULAH AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND LINES UP
WELL WITH A TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF SHORT RANGE...HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO BE COMPLETELY GONE
BY 00 UTC. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE RAPID REDUCTION IN MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS THAT DROVE THE SNOW EARLIER...WHICH OCCURRED AS THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DROVE THE THERMAL RESPONSE ALOFT
MOVED INTO SD AND NEB /AS SEEN BY THE DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR VALENTINE...NEB AT MID AFTERNOON/.

TONIGHT...THE 12 UTC MODEL SUITE CALLED FOR ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE
TO CROSS WESTERN ND IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SCENARIO COULD
DRIVE ANOTHER...VERY LIGHT BATCH OF SNOW ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
LINGERING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE-TYPE
POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO OVER WESTERN ND...AND EVEN SLIGHT-CHANCE
POPS INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND. WE DID GIVE SOME CONSIDERATION TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND
TONIGHT SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN PLACES LIKE BOWMAN SHOW THAT
THE SATURATED LAYER IN THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS LAYER WILL BE WARMER
THAN -12 C. HOWEVER...WE HELD OFF INCLUDING THAT IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT SINCE VERTICAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK...AND
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THE IMPULSE ALOFT MAY YIELD
A FEEDER-SEEDER MECHANISM...AND THUS FLURRIES.

MEANWHILE...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...FORECAST LOWS WILL
BE FROM 0 TO 10 BELOW FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT PER THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLEND WE USED TO BUILD
THE FORECAST. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS
ROLETTE COUNTY...AND WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR 10 MPH...WIND CHILLS
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL RUN FROM -20 T0 -30 F THERE.
WE THUS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ROLETTE COUNTY FROM 06
TO 18 UTC IN A COLLABORATIVE MOVE WITH THE GRAND FORKS NWS OFFICE.

ON FRIDAY...A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PLACE WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 0 AT ROLLA TO 25 AT BOWMAN...BUT THE FORECAST IS DRY
GIVEN A LACK OF SIGNAL FOR ADDITIONAL NORTHWEST-FLOW WAVES IN THE
12 UTC MODEL OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION COUPLED WITH AN
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BRING SEVERAL SHOTS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
EMBEDDED S/WV`S WILL TICKLE THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THEY PASS THROUGH
ALOFT ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIFT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT/TRANSITION ZONE FROM FREEZING TO
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ALOFT...WITH ALL LIQUID IN THE WARM SECTOR TO
THE WEST. THE EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL ALSO DEPEND ON
SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS MIX WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER
OF THE STATE.

A RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO GENERATE ALL SNOW AND MAY
BRING NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER EAST
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ROUGHLY 2-4 INCHES. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW FORECAST MODEL CYCLES.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 50S WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 937 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

BAND OF MVFR-OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES. LATE TONIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BUILDS SOUTH AND COULD LIFT
CEILINGS TO VFR...ESPECIALLY AT KMOT AND KJMS. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH VFR CEILINGS SPREAD WEST TO INCLUDE
KISN...KBIS AND KDIK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ005.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 120347
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
947 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

BAND OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE
FROM THE NORTH AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. HIGHER
REFLECTIVITIES EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE ALREADY TRACKED INTO
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. COULD BE A COUPLE MORE WAVES OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AS WEAK PVA REMAINS OVER WESTERN ND. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH 20-30 POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
TAPERING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE A HALF
INCH. CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE SO NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES OTHER THAN POPULATING LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING AN INCREASING AREA OF LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. LIGHT SNOW IS NOW
BEING REPORTED ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST SO WILL BUMP UP
POPS TO HIGH CHC/LIKELY THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON THIS AND GLOBAL MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAR WEST. FOR NOW HAVE EXTENDED SOME CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT. WILL SEE HOW PRECIP EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS EVEN MORE AND EXTEND INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL. STILL LOOKING FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY A HALF
INCH OR LESS...WITH A FEW AREAS MAYBE SEEING UP TO AN INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LIGHT SNOW IS RAPIDLY ENDING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN TONIGHT
IN WESTERN ND.

AS OF 21 UTC...THE BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW IS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND IS PAST BEULAH AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND LINES UP
WELL WITH A TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF SHORT RANGE...HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO BE COMPLETELY GONE
BY 00 UTC. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE RAPID REDUCTION IN MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS THAT DROVE THE SNOW EARLIER...WHICH OCCURRED AS THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DROVE THE THERMAL RESPONSE ALOFT
MOVED INTO SD AND NEB /AS SEEN BY THE DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR VALENTINE...NEB AT MID AFTERNOON/.

TONIGHT...THE 12 UTC MODEL SUITE CALLED FOR ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE
TO CROSS WESTERN ND IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SCENARIO COULD
DRIVE ANOTHER...VERY LIGHT BATCH OF SNOW ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
LINGERING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE-TYPE
POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO OVER WESTERN ND...AND EVEN SLIGHT-CHANCE
POPS INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND. WE DID GIVE SOME CONSIDERATION TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND
TONIGHT SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN PLACES LIKE BOWMAN SHOW THAT
THE SATURATED LAYER IN THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS LAYER WILL BE WARMER
THAN -12 C. HOWEVER...WE HELD OFF INCLUDING THAT IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT SINCE VERTICAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK...AND
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THE IMPULSE ALOFT MAY YIELD
A FEEDER-SEEDER MECHANISM...AND THUS FLURRIES.

MEANWHILE...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...FORECAST LOWS WILL
BE FROM 0 TO 10 BELOW FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT PER THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLEND WE USED TO BUILD
THE FORECAST. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS
ROLETTE COUNTY...AND WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR 10 MPH...WIND CHILLS
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL RUN FROM -20 T0 -30 F THERE.
WE THUS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ROLETTE COUNTY FROM 06
TO 18 UTC IN A COLLABORATIVE MOVE WITH THE GRAND FORKS NWS OFFICE.

ON FRIDAY...A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PLACE WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 0 AT ROLLA TO 25 AT BOWMAN...BUT THE FORECAST IS DRY
GIVEN A LACK OF SIGNAL FOR ADDITIONAL NORTHWEST-FLOW WAVES IN THE
12 UTC MODEL OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION COUPLED WITH AN
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BRING SEVERAL SHOTS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
EMBEDDED S/WV`S WILL TICKLE THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THEY PASS THROUGH
ALOFT ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIFT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT/TRANSITION ZONE FROM FREEZING TO
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ALOFT...WITH ALL LIQUID IN THE WARM SECTOR TO
THE WEST. THE EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL ALSO DEPEND ON
SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS MIX WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER
OF THE STATE.

A RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO GENERATE ALL SNOW AND MAY
BRING NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER EAST
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ROUGHLY 2-4 INCHES. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW FORECAST MODEL CYCLES.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 50S WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 937 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

BAND OF MVFR-OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES. LATE TONIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BUILDS SOUTH AND COULD LIFT
CEILINGS TO VFR...ESPECIALLY AT KMOT AND KJMS. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH VFR CEILINGS SPREAD WEST TO INCLUDE
KISN...KBIS AND KDIK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ005.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 120041
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING AN INCREASING AREA OF LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. LIGHT SNOW IS NOW
BEING REPORTED ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST SO WILL BUMP UP
POPS TO HIGH CHC/LIKELY THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON THIS AND GLOBAL MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAR WEST. FOR NOW HAVE EXTENDED SOME CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT. WILL SEE HOW PRECIP EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS EVEN MORE AND EXTEND INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL. STILL LOOKING FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY A HALF
INCH OR LESS...WITH A FEW AREAS MAYBE SEEING UP TO AN INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LIGHT SNOW IS RAPIDLY ENDING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN TONIGHT
IN WESTERN ND.

AS OF 21 UTC...THE BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW IS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND IS PAST BEULAH AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND LINES UP
WELL WITH A TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF SHORT RANGE...HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO BE COMPLETELY GONE
BY 00 UTC. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE RAPID REDUCTION IN MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS THAT DROVE THE SNOW EARLIER...WHICH OCCURRED AS THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DROVE THE THERMAL RESPONSE ALOFT
MOVED INTO SD AND NEB /AS SEEN BY THE DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR VALENTINE...NEB AT MID AFTERNOON/.

TONIGHT...THE 12 UTC MODEL SUITE CALLED FOR ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE
TO CROSS WESTERN ND IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SCENARIO COULD
DRIVE ANOTHER...VERY LIGHT BATCH OF SNOW ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
LINGERING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE-TYPE
POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO OVER WESTERN ND...AND EVEN SLIGHT-CHANCE
POPS INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND. WE DID GIVE SOME CONSIDERATION TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND
TONIGHT SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN PLACES LIKE BOWMAN SHOW THAT
THE SATURATED LAYER IN THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS LAYER WILL BE WARMER
THAN -12 C. HOWEVER...WE HELD OFF INCLUDING THAT IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT SINCE VERTICAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK...AND
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THE IMPULSE ALOFT MAY YIELD
A FEEDER-SEEDER MECHANISM...AND THUS FLURRIES.

MEANWHILE...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...FORECAST LOWS WILL
BE FROM 0 TO 10 BELOW FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT PER THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLEND WE USED TO BUILD
THE FORECAST. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS
ROLETTE COUNTY...AND WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR 10 MPH...WIND CHILLS
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL RUN FROM -20 T0 -30 F THERE.
WE THUS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ROLETTE COUNTY FROM 06
TO 18 UTC IN A COLLABORATIVE MOVE WITH THE GRAND FORKS NWS OFFICE.

ON FRIDAY...A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PLACE WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 0 AT ROLLA TO 25 AT BOWMAN...BUT THE FORECAST IS DRY
GIVEN A LACK OF SIGNAL FOR ADDITIONAL NORTHWEST-FLOW WAVES IN THE
12 UTC MODEL OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION COUPLED WITH AN
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BRING SEVERAL SHOTS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
EMBEDDED S/WV`S WILL TICKLE THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THEY PASS THROUGH
ALOFT ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIFT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT/TRANSITION ZONE FROM FREEZING TO
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ALOFT...WITH ALL LIQUID IN THE WARM SECTOR TO
THE WEST. THE EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL ALSO DEPEND ON
SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS MIX WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER
OF THE STATE.

A RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO GENERATE ALL SNOW AND MAY
BRING NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER EAST
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ROUGHLY 2-4 INCHES. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW FORECAST MODEL CYCLES.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 50S WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

BAND OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES. LATE TONIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BUILDS SOUTH AND COULD LIFT
CEILINGS TO VFR...ESPECIALLY AT KMOT AND KJMS. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH VFR CEILINGS SPREAD WEST TO INCLUDE
KISN...KBIS AND KDIK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
NDZ005.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 120041
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING AN INCREASING AREA OF LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. LIGHT SNOW IS NOW
BEING REPORTED ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST SO WILL BUMP UP
POPS TO HIGH CHC/LIKELY THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON THIS AND GLOBAL MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAR WEST. FOR NOW HAVE EXTENDED SOME CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT. WILL SEE HOW PRECIP EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS EVEN MORE AND EXTEND INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL. STILL LOOKING FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY A HALF
INCH OR LESS...WITH A FEW AREAS MAYBE SEEING UP TO AN INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LIGHT SNOW IS RAPIDLY ENDING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN TONIGHT
IN WESTERN ND.

AS OF 21 UTC...THE BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW IS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND IS PAST BEULAH AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND LINES UP
WELL WITH A TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF SHORT RANGE...HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO BE COMPLETELY GONE
BY 00 UTC. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE RAPID REDUCTION IN MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS THAT DROVE THE SNOW EARLIER...WHICH OCCURRED AS THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DROVE THE THERMAL RESPONSE ALOFT
MOVED INTO SD AND NEB /AS SEEN BY THE DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR VALENTINE...NEB AT MID AFTERNOON/.

TONIGHT...THE 12 UTC MODEL SUITE CALLED FOR ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE
TO CROSS WESTERN ND IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SCENARIO COULD
DRIVE ANOTHER...VERY LIGHT BATCH OF SNOW ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
LINGERING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE-TYPE
POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO OVER WESTERN ND...AND EVEN SLIGHT-CHANCE
POPS INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND. WE DID GIVE SOME CONSIDERATION TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND
TONIGHT SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN PLACES LIKE BOWMAN SHOW THAT
THE SATURATED LAYER IN THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS LAYER WILL BE WARMER
THAN -12 C. HOWEVER...WE HELD OFF INCLUDING THAT IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT SINCE VERTICAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK...AND
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THE IMPULSE ALOFT MAY YIELD
A FEEDER-SEEDER MECHANISM...AND THUS FLURRIES.

MEANWHILE...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...FORECAST LOWS WILL
BE FROM 0 TO 10 BELOW FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT PER THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLEND WE USED TO BUILD
THE FORECAST. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS
ROLETTE COUNTY...AND WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR 10 MPH...WIND CHILLS
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL RUN FROM -20 T0 -30 F THERE.
WE THUS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ROLETTE COUNTY FROM 06
TO 18 UTC IN A COLLABORATIVE MOVE WITH THE GRAND FORKS NWS OFFICE.

ON FRIDAY...A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PLACE WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 0 AT ROLLA TO 25 AT BOWMAN...BUT THE FORECAST IS DRY
GIVEN A LACK OF SIGNAL FOR ADDITIONAL NORTHWEST-FLOW WAVES IN THE
12 UTC MODEL OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION COUPLED WITH AN
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BRING SEVERAL SHOTS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
EMBEDDED S/WV`S WILL TICKLE THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THEY PASS THROUGH
ALOFT ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIFT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT/TRANSITION ZONE FROM FREEZING TO
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ALOFT...WITH ALL LIQUID IN THE WARM SECTOR TO
THE WEST. THE EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL ALSO DEPEND ON
SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS MIX WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER
OF THE STATE.

A RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO GENERATE ALL SNOW AND MAY
BRING NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER EAST
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ROUGHLY 2-4 INCHES. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW FORECAST MODEL CYCLES.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 50S WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

BAND OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES. LATE TONIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BUILDS SOUTH AND COULD LIFT
CEILINGS TO VFR...ESPECIALLY AT KMOT AND KJMS. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH VFR CEILINGS SPREAD WEST TO INCLUDE
KISN...KBIS AND KDIK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
NDZ005.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 120041
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING AN INCREASING AREA OF LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. LIGHT SNOW IS NOW
BEING REPORTED ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST SO WILL BUMP UP
POPS TO HIGH CHC/LIKELY THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON THIS AND GLOBAL MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAR WEST. FOR NOW HAVE EXTENDED SOME CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT. WILL SEE HOW PRECIP EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS EVEN MORE AND EXTEND INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL. STILL LOOKING FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY A HALF
INCH OR LESS...WITH A FEW AREAS MAYBE SEEING UP TO AN INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LIGHT SNOW IS RAPIDLY ENDING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN TONIGHT
IN WESTERN ND.

AS OF 21 UTC...THE BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW IS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND IS PAST BEULAH AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND LINES UP
WELL WITH A TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF SHORT RANGE...HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO BE COMPLETELY GONE
BY 00 UTC. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE RAPID REDUCTION IN MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS THAT DROVE THE SNOW EARLIER...WHICH OCCURRED AS THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DROVE THE THERMAL RESPONSE ALOFT
MOVED INTO SD AND NEB /AS SEEN BY THE DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR VALENTINE...NEB AT MID AFTERNOON/.

TONIGHT...THE 12 UTC MODEL SUITE CALLED FOR ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE
TO CROSS WESTERN ND IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SCENARIO COULD
DRIVE ANOTHER...VERY LIGHT BATCH OF SNOW ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
LINGERING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE-TYPE
POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO OVER WESTERN ND...AND EVEN SLIGHT-CHANCE
POPS INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND. WE DID GIVE SOME CONSIDERATION TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND
TONIGHT SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN PLACES LIKE BOWMAN SHOW THAT
THE SATURATED LAYER IN THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS LAYER WILL BE WARMER
THAN -12 C. HOWEVER...WE HELD OFF INCLUDING THAT IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT SINCE VERTICAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK...AND
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THE IMPULSE ALOFT MAY YIELD
A FEEDER-SEEDER MECHANISM...AND THUS FLURRIES.

MEANWHILE...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...FORECAST LOWS WILL
BE FROM 0 TO 10 BELOW FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT PER THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLEND WE USED TO BUILD
THE FORECAST. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS
ROLETTE COUNTY...AND WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR 10 MPH...WIND CHILLS
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL RUN FROM -20 T0 -30 F THERE.
WE THUS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ROLETTE COUNTY FROM 06
TO 18 UTC IN A COLLABORATIVE MOVE WITH THE GRAND FORKS NWS OFFICE.

ON FRIDAY...A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PLACE WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 0 AT ROLLA TO 25 AT BOWMAN...BUT THE FORECAST IS DRY
GIVEN A LACK OF SIGNAL FOR ADDITIONAL NORTHWEST-FLOW WAVES IN THE
12 UTC MODEL OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION COUPLED WITH AN
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BRING SEVERAL SHOTS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
EMBEDDED S/WV`S WILL TICKLE THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THEY PASS THROUGH
ALOFT ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIFT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT/TRANSITION ZONE FROM FREEZING TO
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ALOFT...WITH ALL LIQUID IN THE WARM SECTOR TO
THE WEST. THE EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL ALSO DEPEND ON
SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS MIX WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER
OF THE STATE.

A RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO GENERATE ALL SNOW AND MAY
BRING NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER EAST
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ROUGHLY 2-4 INCHES. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW FORECAST MODEL CYCLES.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 50S WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

BAND OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES. LATE TONIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BUILDS SOUTH AND COULD LIFT
CEILINGS TO VFR...ESPECIALLY AT KMOT AND KJMS. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH VFR CEILINGS SPREAD WEST TO INCLUDE
KISN...KBIS AND KDIK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
NDZ005.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH





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