Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KBIS 061828
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1228 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SHIFTED THE POPS TO THE WEST CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AS LOCAL
RADARS SHOW RETURNS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL. LOWERED THE POPS A
BIT NORTH CENTRAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR SOUTHWEST ND ON LATEST NAM INDICATE A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. RAISED MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO 60 OVER THE SNOW
FREE AREA FAR SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
INTO MINNESOTA BY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SPOTTY AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATO CU THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 061828
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1228 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SHIFTED THE POPS TO THE WEST CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AS LOCAL
RADARS SHOW RETURNS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL. LOWERED THE POPS A
BIT NORTH CENTRAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR SOUTHWEST ND ON LATEST NAM INDICATE A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. RAISED MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO 60 OVER THE SNOW
FREE AREA FAR SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
INTO MINNESOTA BY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SPOTTY AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATO CU THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 061541
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
941 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR SOUTHWEST ND ON LATEST NAM INDICATE A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. RAISED MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO 60 OVER THE SNOW
FREE AREA FAR SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXPECT SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT AND GUSTS TO 32KT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY...WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 25KT AND CIGS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO
MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 061541
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
941 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR SOUTHWEST ND ON LATEST NAM INDICATE A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. RAISED MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO 60 OVER THE SNOW
FREE AREA FAR SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXPECT SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT AND GUSTS TO 32KT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY...WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 25KT AND CIGS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO
MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 061541
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
941 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR SOUTHWEST ND ON LATEST NAM INDICATE A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. RAISED MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO 60 OVER THE SNOW
FREE AREA FAR SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXPECT SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT AND GUSTS TO 32KT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY...WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 25KT AND CIGS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO
MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 061541
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
941 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR SOUTHWEST ND ON LATEST NAM INDICATE A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. RAISED MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO 60 OVER THE SNOW
FREE AREA FAR SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXPECT SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT AND GUSTS TO 32KT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY...WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 25KT AND CIGS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO
MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 061222
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXPECT SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT AND GUSTS TO 32KT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY...WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 25KT AND CIGS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO
MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 061222
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXPECT SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT AND GUSTS TO 32KT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY...WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 25KT AND CIGS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO
MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 061222
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXPECT SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT AND GUSTS TO 32KT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY...WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 25KT AND CIGS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO
MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 061222
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXPECT SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT AND GUSTS TO 32KT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY...WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 25KT AND CIGS DETERIORATING FROM VFR TO
MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 060827
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT
AND GUSTS TO 32KT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z-06Z SATURDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 15KT AND 30KT. AREAS OF LOW VFR CIGS TO MVFR CIGS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 060827
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWED BY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH
WILL MOSTLY BE FELT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MEANDERING INTO NORTHEAST BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH A 100KT 300MB JET STREAK WAS
SLIDING INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE SHORTWAVE AND JET
STREAK WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GENERATED ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BORDER 18Z-00Z SATURDAY. VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FAVORING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN WILL
RESULT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE JET
STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...THE DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WILL BE MAINTAINED LEADING TO CONTINUE
RISING MOTION AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WILL STILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A NEAR 100KT JET DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THE MAIN
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER JET WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSLATING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO POSSIBLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON TIMING BUT EXPECT MAINLY
RAIN. IF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS A LITTLE EARLIER/LATER IN THE DAY
THE PROBABILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW INCREASES. OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS WHICH WAS HINTING AT
A COOL DOWN MID WEEK HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT...BRINGING A
GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST...THEN WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK AND BRINGS AN
EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE A BLEND WHICH KEEPS US MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT
AND GUSTS TO 32KT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z-06Z SATURDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 15KT AND 30KT. AREAS OF LOW VFR CIGS TO MVFR CIGS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS










000
FXUS63 KBIS 060605
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1205 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW CIRCULATING
THROUGH NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH
PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SETTLE
THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT
AND GUSTS TO 32KT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z-06Z SATURDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 15KT AND 30KT. AREAS OF LOW VFR CIGS TO MVFR CIGS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 060605
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1205 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW CIRCULATING
THROUGH NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH
PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SETTLE
THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT KDIK FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KT
AND GUSTS TO 32KT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z-06Z SATURDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 15KT AND 30KT. AREAS OF LOW VFR CIGS TO MVFR CIGS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 060331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
931 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SETTLE
THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME -SN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 060331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
931 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SETTLE
THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME -SN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 060331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
931 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SETTLE
THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME -SN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 060331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
931 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SETTLE
THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME -SN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 060033
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME -SN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 060033
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME -SN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 060033
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER UPPER RIDGE BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME -SN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 052134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.


THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 052134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.


THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TM








000
FXUS63 KBIS 052134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.


THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 052134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A DRY WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ARE FORECAST.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO
WARMER FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. HOWEVER...A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND ONE-HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SEPARATE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM MILD PACIFIC AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LARGEST
TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE DAYTIME: HIGHS IN THE 30S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING THROUGH A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL
FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END.


THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A VERY MILD AND DRY
PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE - MAINLY IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE 50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

UNCERTAINTY FOR MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WITH DIFFERING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TM








000
FXUS63 KBIS 051844
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. MID 20S TO LOW 30S ARE FORECAST NORTHEAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 839 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS SURFACE OBS SHOW ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL A COLD START TO THE MORNING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO
AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 10 AM FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST A BIT THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 051844
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. MID 20S TO LOW 30S ARE FORECAST NORTHEAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 839 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS SURFACE OBS SHOW ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL A COLD START TO THE MORNING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO
AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 10 AM FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST A BIT THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 051440
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
840 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS SURFACE OBS SHOW ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL A COLD START TO THE MORNING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO
AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 10 AM FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST A BIT THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 051440
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
840 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS SURFACE OBS SHOW ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL A COLD START TO THE MORNING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO
AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 10 AM FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST A BIT THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 051240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL A COLD START TO THE MORNING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO
AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 10 AM FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST A BIT THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 051240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. STILL A COLD START TO THE MORNING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO
AND WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH 10 AM FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST A BIT THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH









000
FXUS63 KBIS 050932
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 050932
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ








000
FXUS63 KBIS 050932
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 050932
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

DANGEROUS COLD TRANSITIONS TO MILD TEMPERATURES.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. HELP IS ON THE WAY
THOUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH
WEST WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR IN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (LOCATIONS WITH MINIMAL TO ZERO SNOWPACK)
WILL SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S AND 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT HISTORY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN...SEPARATING COLDER AIR NORTHEAST FROM WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD A
HARD TIME PEGGING ANY SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS HAVE
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP MID TO LATE WEEK...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO
THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ








000
FXUS63 KBIS 050628
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1228 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

NO CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

ONLY ADJUSTMENT FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
MANY READINGS BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WIND
CHILL VALUES ALREADY DROPPING TO AROUND 20 BELOW OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS. GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES NEEDED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BETWEEN 00Z-16Z THURSDAY. MINIMUM
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BELOW
ZERO DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE STATE. DECIDED TO FORECAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER SINCE THERE IS NO SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND IN THAT LOCATION.
AS A RESULT...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE SNOW PACK REMAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MILD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIRMASS SCOURED OUT THURSDAY WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO MORE SEASONAL IN THE 30S AND 40S
FRI-SUN...MUCH ABOVE WHAT WE SAW THE PAST FEW DAYS. COOLER AIR WILL
BE EAST AND WARMER WEST WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING WEST TO EAST/EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
AS EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. KEPT CHANCES
ON THE LOW END. EACH WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL RESULT
IN EITHER WEAK WAA OR WEAK CAA. THESE HARD TO TIME/TRACK FEATURES
RESULTS IN A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM WE WILL ACTUALLY
GET...AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SATURDAY WHEN MODELS BRING
THROUGH THE STRONGER OF THESE WAVES. 12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST COOLER AND
THE 12Z ECMWF WARMER. THUS FORECAST HIGHS WILL EITHER BE MAINTAINED
OR TRENDED DOWNWARDS.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP AFTERWARDS...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO THE
REGION...ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 050628
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1228 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

NO CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

ONLY ADJUSTMENT FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
MANY READINGS BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WIND
CHILL VALUES ALREADY DROPPING TO AROUND 20 BELOW OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS. GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES NEEDED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BETWEEN 00Z-16Z THURSDAY. MINIMUM
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BELOW
ZERO DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE STATE. DECIDED TO FORECAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER SINCE THERE IS NO SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND IN THAT LOCATION.
AS A RESULT...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE SNOW PACK REMAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MILD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIRMASS SCOURED OUT THURSDAY WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO MORE SEASONAL IN THE 30S AND 40S
FRI-SUN...MUCH ABOVE WHAT WE SAW THE PAST FEW DAYS. COOLER AIR WILL
BE EAST AND WARMER WEST WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING WEST TO EAST/EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
AS EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. KEPT CHANCES
ON THE LOW END. EACH WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL RESULT
IN EITHER WEAK WAA OR WEAK CAA. THESE HARD TO TIME/TRACK FEATURES
RESULTS IN A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM WE WILL ACTUALLY
GET...AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SATURDAY WHEN MODELS BRING
THROUGH THE STRONGER OF THESE WAVES. 12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST COOLER AND
THE 12Z ECMWF WARMER. THUS FORECAST HIGHS WILL EITHER BE MAINTAINED
OR TRENDED DOWNWARDS.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP AFTERWARDS...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO THE
REGION...ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ








000
FXUS63 KBIS 050628
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1228 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

NO CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

ONLY ADJUSTMENT FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
MANY READINGS BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WIND
CHILL VALUES ALREADY DROPPING TO AROUND 20 BELOW OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS. GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES NEEDED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BETWEEN 00Z-16Z THURSDAY. MINIMUM
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BELOW
ZERO DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE STATE. DECIDED TO FORECAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER SINCE THERE IS NO SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND IN THAT LOCATION.
AS A RESULT...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE SNOW PACK REMAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MILD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIRMASS SCOURED OUT THURSDAY WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO MORE SEASONAL IN THE 30S AND 40S
FRI-SUN...MUCH ABOVE WHAT WE SAW THE PAST FEW DAYS. COOLER AIR WILL
BE EAST AND WARMER WEST WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING WEST TO EAST/EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
AS EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. KEPT CHANCES
ON THE LOW END. EACH WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL RESULT
IN EITHER WEAK WAA OR WEAK CAA. THESE HARD TO TIME/TRACK FEATURES
RESULTS IN A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM WE WILL ACTUALLY
GET...AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SATURDAY WHEN MODELS BRING
THROUGH THE STRONGER OF THESE WAVES. 12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST COOLER AND
THE 12Z ECMWF WARMER. THUS FORECAST HIGHS WILL EITHER BE MAINTAINED
OR TRENDED DOWNWARDS.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP AFTERWARDS...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO THE
REGION...ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 050628
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1228 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

NO CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

ONLY ADJUSTMENT FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
MANY READINGS BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WIND
CHILL VALUES ALREADY DROPPING TO AROUND 20 BELOW OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS. GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES NEEDED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BETWEEN 00Z-16Z THURSDAY. MINIMUM
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BELOW
ZERO DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE STATE. DECIDED TO FORECAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER SINCE THERE IS NO SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND IN THAT LOCATION.
AS A RESULT...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE SNOW PACK REMAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MILD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIRMASS SCOURED OUT THURSDAY WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO MORE SEASONAL IN THE 30S AND 40S
FRI-SUN...MUCH ABOVE WHAT WE SAW THE PAST FEW DAYS. COOLER AIR WILL
BE EAST AND WARMER WEST WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING WEST TO EAST/EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
AS EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. KEPT CHANCES
ON THE LOW END. EACH WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL RESULT
IN EITHER WEAK WAA OR WEAK CAA. THESE HARD TO TIME/TRACK FEATURES
RESULTS IN A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM WE WILL ACTUALLY
GET...AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SATURDAY WHEN MODELS BRING
THROUGH THE STRONGER OF THESE WAVES. 12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST COOLER AND
THE 12Z ECMWF WARMER. THUS FORECAST HIGHS WILL EITHER BE MAINTAINED
OR TRENDED DOWNWARDS.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP AFTERWARDS...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO THE
REGION...ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ








000
FXUS63 KBIS 050332
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
932 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

ONLY ADJUSTMENT FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
MANY READINGS BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WIND
CHILL VALUES ALREADY DROPPING TO AROUND 20 BELOW OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS. GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES NEEDED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BETWEEN 00Z-16Z THURSDAY. MINIMUM
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BELOW
ZERO DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE STATE. DECIDED TO FORECAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER SINCE THERE IS NO SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND IN THAT LOCATION.
AS A RESULT...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE SNOW PACK REMAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MILD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIRMASS SCOURED OUT THURSDAY WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO MORE SEASONAL IN THE 30S AND 40S
FRI-SUN...MUCH ABOVE WHAT WE SAW THE PAST FEW DAYS. COOLER AIR WILL
BE EAST AND WARMER WEST WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING WEST TO EAST/EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
AS EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. KEPT CHANCES
ON THE LOW END. EACH WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL RESULT
IN EITHER WEAK WAA OR WEAK CAA. THESE HARD TO TIME/TRACK FEATURES
RESULTS IN A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM WE WILL ACTUALLY
GET...AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SATURDAY WHEN MODELS BRING
THROUGH THE STRONGER OF THESE WAVES. 12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST COOLER AND
THE 12Z ECMWF WARMER. THUS FORECAST HIGHS WILL EITHER BE MAINTAINED
OR TRENDED DOWNWARDS.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP AFTERWARDS...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO THE
REGION...ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 050332
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
932 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

ONLY ADJUSTMENT FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
MANY READINGS BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WIND
CHILL VALUES ALREADY DROPPING TO AROUND 20 BELOW OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS. GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES NEEDED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BETWEEN 00Z-16Z THURSDAY. MINIMUM
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BELOW
ZERO DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE STATE. DECIDED TO FORECAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER SINCE THERE IS NO SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND IN THAT LOCATION.
AS A RESULT...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE SNOW PACK REMAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MILD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIRMASS SCOURED OUT THURSDAY WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO MORE SEASONAL IN THE 30S AND 40S
FRI-SUN...MUCH ABOVE WHAT WE SAW THE PAST FEW DAYS. COOLER AIR WILL
BE EAST AND WARMER WEST WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING WEST TO EAST/EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
AS EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. KEPT CHANCES
ON THE LOW END. EACH WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL RESULT
IN EITHER WEAK WAA OR WEAK CAA. THESE HARD TO TIME/TRACK FEATURES
RESULTS IN A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM WE WILL ACTUALLY
GET...AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SATURDAY WHEN MODELS BRING
THROUGH THE STRONGER OF THESE WAVES. 12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST COOLER AND
THE 12Z ECMWF WARMER. THUS FORECAST HIGHS WILL EITHER BE MAINTAINED
OR TRENDED DOWNWARDS.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP AFTERWARDS...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO THE
REGION...ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 050332
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
932 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

ONLY ADJUSTMENT FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
MANY READINGS BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WIND
CHILL VALUES ALREADY DROPPING TO AROUND 20 BELOW OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS. GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES NEEDED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BETWEEN 00Z-16Z THURSDAY. MINIMUM
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BELOW
ZERO DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE STATE. DECIDED TO FORECAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER SINCE THERE IS NO SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND IN THAT LOCATION.
AS A RESULT...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE SNOW PACK REMAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MILD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIRMASS SCOURED OUT THURSDAY WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO MORE SEASONAL IN THE 30S AND 40S
FRI-SUN...MUCH ABOVE WHAT WE SAW THE PAST FEW DAYS. COOLER AIR WILL
BE EAST AND WARMER WEST WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING WEST TO EAST/EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
AS EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. KEPT CHANCES
ON THE LOW END. EACH WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL RESULT
IN EITHER WEAK WAA OR WEAK CAA. THESE HARD TO TIME/TRACK FEATURES
RESULTS IN A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM WE WILL ACTUALLY
GET...AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SATURDAY WHEN MODELS BRING
THROUGH THE STRONGER OF THESE WAVES. 12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST COOLER AND
THE 12Z ECMWF WARMER. THUS FORECAST HIGHS WILL EITHER BE MAINTAINED
OR TRENDED DOWNWARDS.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP AFTERWARDS...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO THE
REGION...ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 050332
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
932 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

ONLY ADJUSTMENT FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
MANY READINGS BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WIND
CHILL VALUES ALREADY DROPPING TO AROUND 20 BELOW OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS. GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES NEEDED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BETWEEN 00Z-16Z THURSDAY. MINIMUM
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BELOW
ZERO DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE STATE. DECIDED TO FORECAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER SINCE THERE IS NO SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND IN THAT LOCATION.
AS A RESULT...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE SNOW PACK REMAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MILD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIRMASS SCOURED OUT THURSDAY WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO MORE SEASONAL IN THE 30S AND 40S
FRI-SUN...MUCH ABOVE WHAT WE SAW THE PAST FEW DAYS. COOLER AIR WILL
BE EAST AND WARMER WEST WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING WEST TO EAST/EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
AS EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. KEPT CHANCES
ON THE LOW END. EACH WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL RESULT
IN EITHER WEAK WAA OR WEAK CAA. THESE HARD TO TIME/TRACK FEATURES
RESULTS IN A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM WE WILL ACTUALLY
GET...AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SATURDAY WHEN MODELS BRING
THROUGH THE STRONGER OF THESE WAVES. 12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST COOLER AND
THE 12Z ECMWF WARMER. THUS FORECAST HIGHS WILL EITHER BE MAINTAINED
OR TRENDED DOWNWARDS.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP AFTERWARDS...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO THE
REGION...ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 050024
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
624 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
MANY READINGS BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WIND
CHILL VALUES ALREADY DROPPING TO AROUND 20 BELOW OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS. GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES NEEDED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BETWEEN 00Z-16Z THURSDAY. MINIMUM
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BELOW
ZERO DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE STATE. DECIDED TO FORECAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER SINCE THERE IS NO SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND IN THAT LOCATION.
AS A RESULT...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE SNOW PACK REMAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MILD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIRMASS SCOURED OUT THURSDAY WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO MORE SEASONAL IN THE 30S AND 40S
FRI-SUN...MUCH ABOVE WHAT WE SAW THE PAST FEW DAYS. COOLER AIR WILL
BE EAST AND WARMER WEST WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING WEST TO EAST/EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
AS EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. KEPT CHANCES
ON THE LOW END. EACH WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL RESULT
IN EITHER WEAK WAA OR WEAK CAA. THESE HARD TO TIME/TRACK FEATURES
RESULTS IN A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM WE WILL ACTUALLY
GET...AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SATURDAY WHEN MODELS BRING
THROUGH THE STRONGER OF THESE WAVES. 12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST COOLER AND
THE 12Z ECMWF WARMER. THUS FORECAST HIGHS WILL EITHER BE MAINTAINED
OR TRENDED DOWNWARDS.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP AFTERWARDS...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO THE
REGION...ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 050024
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
624 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
MANY READINGS BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WIND
CHILL VALUES ALREADY DROPPING TO AROUND 20 BELOW OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS. GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES NEEDED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BETWEEN 00Z-16Z THURSDAY. MINIMUM
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BELOW
ZERO DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE STATE. DECIDED TO FORECAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER SINCE THERE IS NO SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND IN THAT LOCATION.
AS A RESULT...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE SNOW PACK REMAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MILD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIRMASS SCOURED OUT THURSDAY WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO MORE SEASONAL IN THE 30S AND 40S
FRI-SUN...MUCH ABOVE WHAT WE SAW THE PAST FEW DAYS. COOLER AIR WILL
BE EAST AND WARMER WEST WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING WEST TO EAST/EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
AS EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. KEPT CHANCES
ON THE LOW END. EACH WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL RESULT
IN EITHER WEAK WAA OR WEAK CAA. THESE HARD TO TIME/TRACK FEATURES
RESULTS IN A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM WE WILL ACTUALLY
GET...AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SATURDAY WHEN MODELS BRING
THROUGH THE STRONGER OF THESE WAVES. 12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST COOLER AND
THE 12Z ECMWF WARMER. THUS FORECAST HIGHS WILL EITHER BE MAINTAINED
OR TRENDED DOWNWARDS.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP AFTERWARDS...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO THE
REGION...ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 050024
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
624 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
MANY READINGS BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WIND
CHILL VALUES ALREADY DROPPING TO AROUND 20 BELOW OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS. GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES NEEDED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BETWEEN 00Z-16Z THURSDAY. MINIMUM
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BELOW
ZERO DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE STATE. DECIDED TO FORECAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER SINCE THERE IS NO SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND IN THAT LOCATION.
AS A RESULT...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE SNOW PACK REMAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MILD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIRMASS SCOURED OUT THURSDAY WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO MORE SEASONAL IN THE 30S AND 40S
FRI-SUN...MUCH ABOVE WHAT WE SAW THE PAST FEW DAYS. COOLER AIR WILL
BE EAST AND WARMER WEST WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING WEST TO EAST/EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
AS EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. KEPT CHANCES
ON THE LOW END. EACH WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL RESULT
IN EITHER WEAK WAA OR WEAK CAA. THESE HARD TO TIME/TRACK FEATURES
RESULTS IN A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM WE WILL ACTUALLY
GET...AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SATURDAY WHEN MODELS BRING
THROUGH THE STRONGER OF THESE WAVES. 12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST COOLER AND
THE 12Z ECMWF WARMER. THUS FORECAST HIGHS WILL EITHER BE MAINTAINED
OR TRENDED DOWNWARDS.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP AFTERWARDS...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO THE
REGION...ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 050024
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
624 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
MANY READINGS BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WIND
CHILL VALUES ALREADY DROPPING TO AROUND 20 BELOW OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS. GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES NEEDED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BETWEEN 00Z-16Z THURSDAY. MINIMUM
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BELOW
ZERO DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE STATE. DECIDED TO FORECAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER SINCE THERE IS NO SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND IN THAT LOCATION.
AS A RESULT...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE SNOW PACK REMAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MILD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIRMASS SCOURED OUT THURSDAY WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO MORE SEASONAL IN THE 30S AND 40S
FRI-SUN...MUCH ABOVE WHAT WE SAW THE PAST FEW DAYS. COOLER AIR WILL
BE EAST AND WARMER WEST WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING WEST TO EAST/EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
AS EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. KEPT CHANCES
ON THE LOW END. EACH WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL RESULT
IN EITHER WEAK WAA OR WEAK CAA. THESE HARD TO TIME/TRACK FEATURES
RESULTS IN A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM WE WILL ACTUALLY
GET...AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SATURDAY WHEN MODELS BRING
THROUGH THE STRONGER OF THESE WAVES. 12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST COOLER AND
THE 12Z ECMWF WARMER. THUS FORECAST HIGHS WILL EITHER BE MAINTAINED
OR TRENDED DOWNWARDS.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP AFTERWARDS...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO THE
REGION...ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 042102
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BETWEEN 00Z-16Z THURSDAY. MINIMUM
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 BELOW
ZERO DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE STATE. DECIDED TO FORECAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER SINCE THERE IS NO SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND IN THAT LOCATION.
AS A RESULT...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE SNOW PACK REMAINS.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MILD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC AIRMASS SCOURED OUT THURSDAY WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO MORE SEASONAL IN THE 30S AND 40S
FRI-SUN...MUCH ABOVE WHAT WE SAW THE PAST FEW DAYS. COOLER AIR WILL
BE EAST AND WARMER WEST WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING WEST TO EAST/EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
AS EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. KEPT CHANCES
ON THE LOW END. EACH WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL RESULT
IN EITHER WEAK WAA OR WEAK CAA. THESE HARD TO TIME/TRACK FEATURES
RESULTS IN A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM WE WILL ACTUALLY
GET...AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SATURDAY WHEN MODELS BRING
THROUGH THE STRONGER OF THESE WAVES. 12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST COOLER AND
THE 12Z ECMWF WARMER. THUS FORECAST HIGHS WILL EITHER BE MAINTAINED
OR TRENDED DOWNWARDS.

FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE WESTERLY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A
FLATTENING RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
MOISTURE.

UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP AFTERWARDS...GFS RETURNS COLD WEATHER TO THE
REGION...ECMWF MAINTAINS IF NOT WARMS THE MILD WEATHER.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE I-94 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD TAPER
OFF AND CIGS IMPROVE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT WIND AND
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM








000
FXUS63 KBIS 041837
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
AROUND 25 BELOW ZERO...ALLOWED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AT
12 NOON. ALL SITES SHOULD BE ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WIND CHILL THREAT TONIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE DETERMINING JUST HOW FAR WEST THE ADVISORY WILL ENCOMPASS.
WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE THE 12Z MODEL DATA AND HAVE HEADLINES
DECIDED BY THE MID-AFTERNOON UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL 12 NOON
CST. WINDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE BUBBLE ENTERING
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE ARCTIC
AIR SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES IN THE 25 BELOW TO 40
BELOW ZERO RANGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE AT 12 NOON CST. HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY RANGING FROM AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO NORTH TO ZERO TO 5
BELOW ACROSS THE SOUTH. WIND CHILLS ARE 35 TO 40 BELOW NORTH AND
AROUND 25 BELOW SOUTH SO NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY.
LIGHT SNOW HAS ALL BUT ENDED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. DID LOWER
SKY COVER MOST AREAS AS WE ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM IS VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. AS A RESULT
AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW SHOULD BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES ARE BUILDING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. BITTERLY COLD AIR
IS ALREADY MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS BELOW. WITH CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH READINGS AROUND
30 BELOW.

ONE MORE COLD NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE A RAPID AND WELCOME
WARM UP ARRIVES THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS WE ENTER A MUCH MILDER PATTERN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FEW HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE LINGERING
WIND CHILLS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WE REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BUT WITH THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS
THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER AND WEAKER WITH A WAVE JUST BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST CWA WITH
VERY LIGHT QPF FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN BRINGS ANOTHER
QUICK MOVING WAVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE GFS/GEM BRING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
RESULTS IN A LITTLE MORE QPF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HANGING ON OVER THE EASTERN CWA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS/GEM
ARE THEN DRY SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL
UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH BASICALLY BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ADDING A MENTION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.

ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE THEN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS DOES BRING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD (WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT) WHICH IS
A SWITCH FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO...BUT
THE ECMWF REMAINS WARM AND DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE I-94 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD TAPER
OFF AND CIGS IMPROVE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT WIND AND
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 041837
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
AROUND 25 BELOW ZERO...ALLOWED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AT
12 NOON. ALL SITES SHOULD BE ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WIND CHILL THREAT TONIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE DETERMINING JUST HOW FAR WEST THE ADVISORY WILL ENCOMPASS.
WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE THE 12Z MODEL DATA AND HAVE HEADLINES
DECIDED BY THE MID-AFTERNOON UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL 12 NOON
CST. WINDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE BUBBLE ENTERING
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE ARCTIC
AIR SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES IN THE 25 BELOW TO 40
BELOW ZERO RANGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE AT 12 NOON CST. HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY RANGING FROM AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO NORTH TO ZERO TO 5
BELOW ACROSS THE SOUTH. WIND CHILLS ARE 35 TO 40 BELOW NORTH AND
AROUND 25 BELOW SOUTH SO NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY.
LIGHT SNOW HAS ALL BUT ENDED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. DID LOWER
SKY COVER MOST AREAS AS WE ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM IS VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. AS A RESULT
AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW SHOULD BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES ARE BUILDING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. BITTERLY COLD AIR
IS ALREADY MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS BELOW. WITH CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH READINGS AROUND
30 BELOW.

ONE MORE COLD NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE A RAPID AND WELCOME
WARM UP ARRIVES THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS WE ENTER A MUCH MILDER PATTERN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FEW HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE LINGERING
WIND CHILLS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WE REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BUT WITH THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS
THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER AND WEAKER WITH A WAVE JUST BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST CWA WITH
VERY LIGHT QPF FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN BRINGS ANOTHER
QUICK MOVING WAVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE GFS/GEM BRING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
RESULTS IN A LITTLE MORE QPF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HANGING ON OVER THE EASTERN CWA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS/GEM
ARE THEN DRY SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL
UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH BASICALLY BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ADDING A MENTION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.

ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE THEN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS DOES BRING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD (WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT) WHICH IS
A SWITCH FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO...BUT
THE ECMWF REMAINS WARM AND DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE I-94 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD TAPER
OFF AND CIGS IMPROVE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT WIND AND
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 041837
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
AROUND 25 BELOW ZERO...ALLOWED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE AT
12 NOON. ALL SITES SHOULD BE ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WIND CHILL THREAT TONIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE DETERMINING JUST HOW FAR WEST THE ADVISORY WILL ENCOMPASS.
WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE THE 12Z MODEL DATA AND HAVE HEADLINES
DECIDED BY THE MID-AFTERNOON UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL 12 NOON
CST. WINDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE BUBBLE ENTERING
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE ARCTIC
AIR SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES IN THE 25 BELOW TO 40
BELOW ZERO RANGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE AT 12 NOON CST. HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY RANGING FROM AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO NORTH TO ZERO TO 5
BELOW ACROSS THE SOUTH. WIND CHILLS ARE 35 TO 40 BELOW NORTH AND
AROUND 25 BELOW SOUTH SO NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY.
LIGHT SNOW HAS ALL BUT ENDED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. DID LOWER
SKY COVER MOST AREAS AS WE ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM IS VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. AS A RESULT
AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW SHOULD BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES ARE BUILDING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. BITTERLY COLD AIR
IS ALREADY MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS BELOW. WITH CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH READINGS AROUND
30 BELOW.

ONE MORE COLD NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE A RAPID AND WELCOME
WARM UP ARRIVES THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS WE ENTER A MUCH MILDER PATTERN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FEW HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE LINGERING
WIND CHILLS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WE REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BUT WITH THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS
THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER AND WEAKER WITH A WAVE JUST BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST CWA WITH
VERY LIGHT QPF FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN BRINGS ANOTHER
QUICK MOVING WAVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE GFS/GEM BRING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
RESULTS IN A LITTLE MORE QPF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HANGING ON OVER THE EASTERN CWA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS/GEM
ARE THEN DRY SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL
UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH BASICALLY BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ADDING A MENTION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.

ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE THEN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS DOES BRING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD (WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT) WHICH IS
A SWITCH FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO...BUT
THE ECMWF REMAINS WARM AND DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE I-94 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD TAPER
OFF AND CIGS IMPROVE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT WIND AND
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 041529
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
929 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL 12 NOON
CST. WINDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE BUBBLE ENTERING
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE ARCTIC
AIR SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES IN THE 25 BELOW TO 40
BELOW ZERO RANGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE AT 12 NOON CST. HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY RANGING FROM AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO NORTH TO ZERO TO 5
BELOW ACROSS THE SOUTH. WIND CHILLS ARE 35 TO 40 BELOW NORTH AND
AROUND 25 BELOW SOUTH SO NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY.
LIGHT SNOW HAS ALL BUT ENDED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. DID LOWER
SKY COVER MOST AREAS AS WE ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM IS VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. AS A RESULT
AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW SHOULD BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES ARE BUILDING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. BITTERLY COLD AIR
IS ALREADY MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS BELOW. WITH CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH READINGS AROUND
30 BELOW.

ONE MORE COLD NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE A RAPID AND WELCOME
WARM UP ARRIVES THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS WE ENTER A MUCH MILDER PATTERN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FEW HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE LINGERING
WIND CHILLS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WE REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BUT WITH THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS
THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER AND WEAKER WITH A WAVE JUST BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST CWA WITH
VERY LIGHT QPF FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN BRINGS ANOTHER
QUICK MOVING WAVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE GFS/GEM BRING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
RESULTS IN A LITTLE MORE QPF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HANGING ON OVER THE EASTERN CWA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS/GEM
ARE THEN DRY SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL
UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH BASICALLY BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ADDING A MENTION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.

ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE THEN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS DOES BRING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD (WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT) WHICH IS
A SWITCH FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO...BUT
THE ECMWF REMAINS WARM AND DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10
KTS TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 041529
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
929 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL 12 NOON
CST. WINDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE BUBBLE ENTERING
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE ARCTIC
AIR SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES IN THE 25 BELOW TO 40
BELOW ZERO RANGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE AT 12 NOON CST. HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY RANGING FROM AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO NORTH TO ZERO TO 5
BELOW ACROSS THE SOUTH. WIND CHILLS ARE 35 TO 40 BELOW NORTH AND
AROUND 25 BELOW SOUTH SO NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY.
LIGHT SNOW HAS ALL BUT ENDED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. DID LOWER
SKY COVER MOST AREAS AS WE ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM IS VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. AS A RESULT
AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW SHOULD BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES ARE BUILDING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. BITTERLY COLD AIR
IS ALREADY MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS BELOW. WITH CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH READINGS AROUND
30 BELOW.

ONE MORE COLD NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE A RAPID AND WELCOME
WARM UP ARRIVES THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS WE ENTER A MUCH MILDER PATTERN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FEW HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE LINGERING
WIND CHILLS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WE REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BUT WITH THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS
THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER AND WEAKER WITH A WAVE JUST BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST CWA WITH
VERY LIGHT QPF FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN BRINGS ANOTHER
QUICK MOVING WAVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE GFS/GEM BRING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
RESULTS IN A LITTLE MORE QPF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HANGING ON OVER THE EASTERN CWA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS/GEM
ARE THEN DRY SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL
UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH BASICALLY BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ADDING A MENTION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.

ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE THEN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS DOES BRING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD (WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT) WHICH IS
A SWITCH FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO...BUT
THE ECMWF REMAINS WARM AND DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10
KTS TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 041231
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY RANGING FROM AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO NORTH TO ZERO TO 5
BELOW ACROSS THE SOUTH. WIND CHILLS ARE 35 TO 40 BELOW NORTH AND
AROUND 25 BELOW SOUTH SO NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY.
LIGHT SNOW HAS ALL BUT ENDED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. DID LOWER
SKY COVER MOST AREAS AS WE ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM IS VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. AS A RESULT
AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW SHOULD BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES ARE BUILDING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. BITTERLY COLD AIR
IS ALREADY MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS BELOW. WITH CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH READINGS AROUND
30 BELOW.

ONE MORE COLD NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE A RAPID AND WELCOME
WARM UP ARRIVES THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS WE ENTER A MUCH MILDER PATTERN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FEW HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE LINGERING
WIND CHILLS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WE REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BUT WITH THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS
THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER AND WEAKER WITH A WAVE JUST BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST CWA WITH
VERY LIGHT QPF FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN BRINGS ANOTHER
QUICK MOVING WAVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE GFS/GEM BRING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
RESULTS IN A LITTLE MORE QPF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HANGING ON OVER THE EASTERN CWA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS/GEM
ARE THEN DRY SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL
UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH BASICALLY BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ADDING A MENTION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.

ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE THEN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS DOES BRING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD (WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT) WHICH IS
A SWITCH FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO...BUT
THE ECMWF REMAINS WARM AND DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10
KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 041231
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY RANGING FROM AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO NORTH TO ZERO TO 5
BELOW ACROSS THE SOUTH. WIND CHILLS ARE 35 TO 40 BELOW NORTH AND
AROUND 25 BELOW SOUTH SO NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY.
LIGHT SNOW HAS ALL BUT ENDED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. DID LOWER
SKY COVER MOST AREAS AS WE ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM IS VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. AS A RESULT
AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW SHOULD BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES ARE BUILDING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. BITTERLY COLD AIR
IS ALREADY MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS BELOW. WITH CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH READINGS AROUND
30 BELOW.

ONE MORE COLD NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE A RAPID AND WELCOME
WARM UP ARRIVES THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS WE ENTER A MUCH MILDER PATTERN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FEW HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE LINGERING
WIND CHILLS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WE REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BUT WITH THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS
THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER AND WEAKER WITH A WAVE JUST BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST CWA WITH
VERY LIGHT QPF FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN BRINGS ANOTHER
QUICK MOVING WAVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE GFS/GEM BRING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
RESULTS IN A LITTLE MORE QPF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HANGING ON OVER THE EASTERN CWA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS/GEM
ARE THEN DRY SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL
UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH BASICALLY BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ADDING A MENTION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.

ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE THEN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS DOES BRING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD (WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT) WHICH IS
A SWITCH FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO...BUT
THE ECMWF REMAINS WARM AND DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10
KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 040933
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM IS VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. AS A RESULT
AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW SHOULD BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES ARE BUILDING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. BITTERLY COLD AIR
IS ALREADY MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS BELOW. WITH CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH READINGS AROUND
30 BELOW.

ONE MORE COLD NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE A RAPID AND WELCOME
WARM UP ARRIVES THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS WE ENTER A MUCH MILDER PATTERN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FEW HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE LINGERING
WIND CHILLS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WE REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BUT WITH THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS
THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER AND WEAKER WITH A WAVE JUST BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST CWA WITH
VERY LIGHT QPF FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN BRINGS ANOTHER
QUICK MOVING WAVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE GFS/GEM BRING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
RESULTS IN A LITTLE MORE QPF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HANGING ON OVER THE EASTERN CWA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS/GEM
ARE THEN DRY SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL
UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH BASICALLY BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ADDING A MENTION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.

ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE THEN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS DOES BRING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD (WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT) WHICH IS
A SWITCH FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO...BUT
THE ECMWF REMAINS WARM AND DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW MVFR CIGS AND VSBY AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS IN SNOW EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ








000
FXUS63 KBIS 040607
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1207 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOW AND SKY FORECAST WERE MADE FOR THIS
UPDATE. SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A FAST
MOVING VORT MAX DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE FAST MOVING AND BRIEF IN NATURE...THEREFORE LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...SO VISIBILITIES WILL BE BRIEFLY REDUCED.
SKIES ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES ARE RESPONDING QUICKLY WITH READINGS ALREADY
WELL BELOW ZERO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 906 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WILLISTON AREA WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE SNOW DOWN TO BELOW 2 MILES. WITH THIS
INFORMATION WILL TREND AND REFINE THE POPS TO LIKELY WITH
THIS SNOW SHOWER BAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND TRENDED DOWN TO
FLURRIES. ALSO EXPECT A BRIEF GUST TO 25 MPH BEHIND THIS FEATURE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 606 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THIS UPDATE WILL END THE WIND ADVISORY AND WILL BEGIN THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES THAT WILL EVENTUALLY COVER THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDED SOME EVENING FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.
ALSO FOLLOWING SOME SNOW IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
TRENDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. THIS APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT. THIS AREA
OF SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAD CHANCE OF SNOW WEST THIS EVENING BUT
ENHANCED THE POPS A BIT FOR THIS FEATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD
SO WILL LEAVE IT ALONE FOR THIS UPDATE.

STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED
UNDER SOME OF THESE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES
TO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

A VORT LOBE ROTATING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL GENERATE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT...IF ANY AT ALL.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION WILL GENERATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISSUED
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD AS A RESULT.

WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND COLD WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
COLD TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A
NICE WARMING TREND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING NORTH AND EAST AS SUBZERO TEMPERATURES COUPLE
WITH WINDS TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING THESE HEADLINES WITH CURRENT WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN
PLACE FOR TONIGHT.

ARCTIC AIRMASS PROPAGATES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY ONWARDS AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSIVELY PUSHES EASTWARD. AFTERWARDS OUR
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IF ANY
EMBEDDED WAVE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT FOR A VERY NICE WARMING TREND EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW MVFR CIGS AND VSBY AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS IN SNOW EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NDZ017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 040607
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1207 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOW AND SKY FORECAST WERE MADE FOR THIS
UPDATE. SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A FAST
MOVING VORT MAX DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE FAST MOVING AND BRIEF IN NATURE...THEREFORE LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...SO VISIBILITIES WILL BE BRIEFLY REDUCED.
SKIES ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES ARE RESPONDING QUICKLY WITH READINGS ALREADY
WELL BELOW ZERO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 906 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WILLISTON AREA WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE SNOW DOWN TO BELOW 2 MILES. WITH THIS
INFORMATION WILL TREND AND REFINE THE POPS TO LIKELY WITH
THIS SNOW SHOWER BAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND TRENDED DOWN TO
FLURRIES. ALSO EXPECT A BRIEF GUST TO 25 MPH BEHIND THIS FEATURE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 606 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THIS UPDATE WILL END THE WIND ADVISORY AND WILL BEGIN THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES THAT WILL EVENTUALLY COVER THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDED SOME EVENING FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.
ALSO FOLLOWING SOME SNOW IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
TRENDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. THIS APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT. THIS AREA
OF SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAD CHANCE OF SNOW WEST THIS EVENING BUT
ENHANCED THE POPS A BIT FOR THIS FEATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD
SO WILL LEAVE IT ALONE FOR THIS UPDATE.

STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED
UNDER SOME OF THESE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES
TO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

A VORT LOBE ROTATING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL GENERATE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT...IF ANY AT ALL.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION WILL GENERATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISSUED
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD AS A RESULT.

WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND COLD WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
COLD TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A
NICE WARMING TREND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING NORTH AND EAST AS SUBZERO TEMPERATURES COUPLE
WITH WINDS TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING THESE HEADLINES WITH CURRENT WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN
PLACE FOR TONIGHT.

ARCTIC AIRMASS PROPAGATES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY ONWARDS AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSIVELY PUSHES EASTWARD. AFTERWARDS OUR
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IF ANY
EMBEDDED WAVE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT FOR A VERY NICE WARMING TREND EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW MVFR CIGS AND VSBY AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS IN SNOW EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NDZ017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ








000
FXUS63 KBIS 040311
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
911 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WILLISTON AREA WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE SNOW DOWN TO BELOW 2 MILES. WITH THIS
INFORMATION WILL TREND AND REFINE THE POPS TO LIKELY WITH
THIS SNOW SHOWER BAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND TRENDED DOWN TO
FLURRIES. ALSO EXPECT A BRIEF GUST TO 25 MPH BEHIND THIS FEATURE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 606 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THIS UPDATE WILL END THE WIND ADVISORY AND WILL BEGIN THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES THAT WILL EVENTUALLY COVER THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDED SOME EVENING FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.
ALSO FOLLOWING SOME SNOW IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
TRENDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. THIS APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT. THIS AREA
OF SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAD CHANCE OF SNOW WEST THIS EVENING BUT
ENHANCED THE POPS A BIT FOR THIS FEATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD
SO WILL LEAVE IT ALONE FOR THIS UPDATE.

STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED
UNDER SOME OF THESE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES
TO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

A VORT LOBE ROTATING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL GENERATE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT...IF ANY AT ALL.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION WILL GENERATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISSUED
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD AS A RESULT.

WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND COLD WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
COLD TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A
NICE WARMING TREND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING NORTH AND EAST AS SUBZERO TEMPERATURES COUPLE
WITH WINDS TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING THESE HEADLINES WITH CURRENT WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN
PLACE FOR TONIGHT.

ARCTIC AIRMASS PROPAGATES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY ONWARDS AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSIVELY PUSHES EASTWARD. AFTERWARDS OUR
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IF ANY
EMBEDDED WAVE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT FOR A VERY NICE WARMING TREND EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLD SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRATO CU ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN LOW VFR...AN AREA OF
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASK THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH INO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEN GENERALLY VFR
AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NDZ017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 040311
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
911 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WILLISTON AREA WITH
VISIBILITIES IN THE SNOW DOWN TO BELOW 2 MILES. WITH THIS
INFORMATION WILL TREND AND REFINE THE POPS TO LIKELY WITH
THIS SNOW SHOWER BAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND TRENDED DOWN TO
FLURRIES. ALSO EXPECT A BRIEF GUST TO 25 MPH BEHIND THIS FEATURE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 606 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THIS UPDATE WILL END THE WIND ADVISORY AND WILL BEGIN THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES THAT WILL EVENTUALLY COVER THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDED SOME EVENING FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.
ALSO FOLLOWING SOME SNOW IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
TRENDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. THIS APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT. THIS AREA
OF SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAD CHANCE OF SNOW WEST THIS EVENING BUT
ENHANCED THE POPS A BIT FOR THIS FEATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD
SO WILL LEAVE IT ALONE FOR THIS UPDATE.

STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED
UNDER SOME OF THESE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES
TO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

A VORT LOBE ROTATING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL GENERATE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT...IF ANY AT ALL.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION WILL GENERATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISSUED
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD AS A RESULT.

WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND COLD WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
COLD TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A
NICE WARMING TREND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING NORTH AND EAST AS SUBZERO TEMPERATURES COUPLE
WITH WINDS TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING THESE HEADLINES WITH CURRENT WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN
PLACE FOR TONIGHT.

ARCTIC AIRMASS PROPAGATES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY ONWARDS AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSIVELY PUSHES EASTWARD. AFTERWARDS OUR
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IF ANY
EMBEDDED WAVE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT FOR A VERY NICE WARMING TREND EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLD SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRATO CU ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN LOW VFR...AN AREA OF
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASK THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH INO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEN GENERALLY VFR
AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NDZ017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 040017
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
617 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 606 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THIS UPDATE WILL END THE WIND ADVISORY AND WILL BEGIN THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES THAT WILL EVENTUALLY COVER THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDED SOME EVENING FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.
ALSO FOLLOWING SOME SNOW IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
TRENDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. THIS APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT. THIS AREA
OF SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAD CHANCE OF SNOW WEST THIS EVENING BUT
ENHANCED THE POPS A BIT FOR THIS FEATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD
SO WILL LEAVE IT ALONE FOR THIS UPDATE.

STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED
UNDER SOME OF THESE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES
TO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

A VORT LOBE ROTATING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL GENERATE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT...IF ANY AT ALL.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION WILL GENERATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISSUED
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD AS A RESULT.

WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND COLD WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
COLD TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A
NICE WARMING TREND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING NORTH AND EAST AS SUBZERO TEMPERATURES COUPLE
WITH WINDS TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING THESE HEADLINES WITH CURRENT WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN
PLACE FOR TONIGHT.

ARCTIC AIRMASS PROPAGATES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY ONWARDS AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSIVELY PUSHES EASTWARD. AFTERWARDS OUR
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IF ANY
EMBEDDED WAVE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT FOR A VERY NICE WARMING TREND EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLD SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRATO CU ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN LOW VFR...AN AREA OF
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASK THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH INO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEN GENERALLY VFR
AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 040017
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
617 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 606 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THIS UPDATE WILL END THE WIND ADVISORY AND WILL BEGIN THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES THAT WILL EVENTUALLY COVER THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDED SOME EVENING FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.
ALSO FOLLOWING SOME SNOW IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
TRENDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. THIS APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT. THIS AREA
OF SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAD CHANCE OF SNOW WEST THIS EVENING BUT
ENHANCED THE POPS A BIT FOR THIS FEATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD
SO WILL LEAVE IT ALONE FOR THIS UPDATE.

STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED
UNDER SOME OF THESE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES
TO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

A VORT LOBE ROTATING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL GENERATE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT...IF ANY AT ALL.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION WILL GENERATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISSUED
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD AS A RESULT.

WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND COLD WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
COLD TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A
NICE WARMING TREND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING NORTH AND EAST AS SUBZERO TEMPERATURES COUPLE
WITH WINDS TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING THESE HEADLINES WITH CURRENT WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN
PLACE FOR TONIGHT.

ARCTIC AIRMASS PROPAGATES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY ONWARDS AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSIVELY PUSHES EASTWARD. AFTERWARDS OUR
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IF ANY
EMBEDDED WAVE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT FOR A VERY NICE WARMING TREND EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLD SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRATO CU ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN LOW VFR...AN AREA OF
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASK THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH INO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEN GENERALLY VFR
AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 032120
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD
SO WILL LEAVE IT ALONE FOR THIS UPDATE.

STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED
UNDER SOME OF THESE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES
TO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

A VORT LOBE ROTATING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL GENERATE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT...IF ANY AT ALL.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION WILL GENERATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISSUED
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD AS A RESULT.

WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND COLD WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
COLD TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A
NICE WARMING TREND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING NORTH AND EAST AS SUBZERO TEMPERATURES COUPLE
WITH WINDS TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING THESE HEADLINES WITH CURRENT WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN
PLACE FOR TONIGHT.

ARCTIC AIRMASS PROPAGATES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY ONWARDS AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSIVELY PUSHES EASTWARD. AFTERWARDS OUR
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IF ANY
EMBEDDED WAVE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT FOR A VERY NICE WARMING TREND EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
GREAT PLAINS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AND MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-
022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 032120
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD
SO WILL LEAVE IT ALONE FOR THIS UPDATE.

STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED
UNDER SOME OF THESE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES
TO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

A VORT LOBE ROTATING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL GENERATE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT...IF ANY AT ALL.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION WILL GENERATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISSUED
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD AS A RESULT.

WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND COLD WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
COLD TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A
NICE WARMING TREND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING NORTH AND EAST AS SUBZERO TEMPERATURES COUPLE
WITH WINDS TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING THESE HEADLINES WITH CURRENT WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN
PLACE FOR TONIGHT.

ARCTIC AIRMASS PROPAGATES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY ONWARDS AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSIVELY PUSHES EASTWARD. AFTERWARDS OUR
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IF ANY
EMBEDDED WAVE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT FOR A VERY NICE WARMING TREND EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
GREAT PLAINS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AND MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-
022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities