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000
FXUS63 KBIS 031124
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
624 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS RIGHT ON TRACK. PATCHY DENSE/SHALLOW FOG
SOUTH CENTRAL QUICKLY LIFTING PER WEBCAMS. CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT AND GRIDDED FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED WELL. NO UPDATES
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

INCREASED FIRE DANGER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

AFTER COLLABORATING WITH GRAND FORKS WFO AND SPC FIRE WEATHER
DESK...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH...INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA...DOWN INTO WESTERN MONTANA AND EASTERN
IDAHO...LEAVING ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. AT
THE SURFACE...A DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWEST OVER
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO...WILL PUSH ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...A BLEND OF THE LATEST MET/MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL APPROACH 25-31 KNOTS IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES...MAINLY FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH...THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER EAST
AND BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA MILD AND DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FOR THURSDAY...A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO ALBERTA CANADA WILL PROPAGATE TOWARDS AND INTO NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY AS H85 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN +18C AND +22C THURSDAY.
THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 80F EAST
TO 86F WEST.

ON FRIDAY THE RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE 00Z ECMWF IS WETTER AND MORE
UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS MODEL FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GRIDDED
MODEL BLEND YIELDS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONCUR WITH THIS
IDEA WHICH BLENDS THE DRIER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY GRADUALLY EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY/MONDAY. IN DOING SO...A REX BLOCK FORMS THIS WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER HIGH LOCATED WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHWEST LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. A GENERALLY DRY AND COOLER
PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PER GFS/ECMWF...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SWEEP THROUGH WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WETTER WITH THE THIS SCENARIO
AS IT TRIES TO INCORPORATE MORE MOISTURE FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW...WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS THAT MOISTURE
SOURCE MOVING EAST WITH LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AFFECTING MAINLY KJMS. AT SITES FURTHER
WEST...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MUCH LIGHTER. VFR
CONDITIONS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES FROM
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 01Z WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH
DAKOTA FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES EARLY TUESDAY AND MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WILL OCCUR FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE LATEST FORECAST CO LOCATES THESE
STRONGER WINDS WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 17-22
PERCENT RANGE FOR THREE TO SIX HOURS...MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA
FOR THESE AREAS. SEE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR SPECIFIC COUNTIES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...ZH
FIRE WEATHER...ZH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 030758
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
258 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

INCREASED FIRE DANGER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

AFTER COLLABORATING WITH GRAND FORKS WFO AND SPC FIRE WEATHER
DESK...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH...INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA...DOWN INTO WESTERN MONTANA AND EASTERN
IDAHO...LEAVING ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. AT
THE SURFACE...A DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWEST OVER
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO...WILL PUSH ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...A BLEND OF THE LATEST MET/MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL APPROACH 25-31 KNOTS IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES...MAINLY FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH...THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER EAST
AND BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA MILD AND DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FOR THURSDAY...A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO ALBERTA CANADA WILL PROPAGATE TOWARDS AND INTO NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY AS H85 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN +18C AND +22C THURSDAY.
THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 80F EAST
TO 86F WEST.

ON FRIDAY THE RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE 00Z ECMWF IS WETTER AND MORE
UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS MODEL FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GRIDDED
MODEL BLEND YIELDS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONCUR WITH THIS
IDEA WHICH BLENDS THE DRIER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY GRADUALLY EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY/MONDAY. IN DOING SO...A REX BLOCK FORMS THIS WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER HIGH LOCATED WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHWEST LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. A GENERALLY DRY AND COOLER
PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PER GFS/ECMWF...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SWEEP THROUGH WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WETTER WITH THE THIS SCENARIO
AS IT TRIES TO INCORPORATE MORE MOISTURE FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW...WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS THAT MOISTURE
SOURCE MOVING EAST WITH LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
OVER ALL SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING THE WIND FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST 25-30 KNOTS OVER KJMS IN THE 18Z TO
23Z TIME FRAME...TAPERING OFF TO THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES FROM
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 01Z WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH
DAKOTA FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES EARLY TUESDAY AND MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WILL OCCUR FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE LATEST FORECAST CO LOCATES THESE
STRONGER WINDS WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 17-22
PERCENT RANGE FOR THREE TO SIX HOURS...MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA
FOR THESE AREAS. SEE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR SPECIFIC COUNTIES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...ZH
FIRE WEATHER...ZH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 030557
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1257 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. ALSO TWEAKED RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND
FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW. HIGHLIGHTED THE POSSIBILITY FOR
INCREASED FIRE DANGER TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE HWO...FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC...THE
ONGOING FORECAST FOR A QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT REMAINS WELL ON
TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

COOL UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL EXIT
THE AREA TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION. THE IMPACT FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH TO THE WESTERN DEVILS LAKE AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE. AT THIS TIME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR THE ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
RIDGE PATTERN WITH THE H500 RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE H500 TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES
INLAND AND CLOSES OFF...EVENTUALLY RESIDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY
SATURDAY AND PUTTING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ABUNDANT RAIN THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A RATHER FRACTURED SPLIT FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH
WILL COOL TEMPERATURES OFF INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
OVER ALL SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING THE WIND FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST 25-30 KNOTS OVER KJMS IN THE 18Z TO
23Z TIME FRAME...TAPERING OFF TO THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

STILL EVALUATING THE NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST EXPERIMENTAL RAP/HRRR DATA SHOWS LOWER MIN RH VALUES LESS
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
WINDS. AT THIS POINT...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT WITH INCREASED FIRE
DANGER IN SAID AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY COORDINATE
A RED FLAG WARNING OVER MY EASTERN ZONES FOR THE NEXT FORECAST
UPDATE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...ZH
FIRE WEATHER...ZH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 030557
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1257 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. ALSO TWEAKED RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND
FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW. HIGHLIGHTED THE POSSIBILITY FOR
INCREASED FIRE DANGER TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE HWO...FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC...THE
ONGOING FORECAST FOR A QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT REMAINS WELL ON
TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

COOL UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL EXIT
THE AREA TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION. THE IMPACT FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH TO THE WESTERN DEVILS LAKE AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE. AT THIS TIME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR THE ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
RIDGE PATTERN WITH THE H500 RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE H500 TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES
INLAND AND CLOSES OFF...EVENTUALLY RESIDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY
SATURDAY AND PUTTING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ABUNDANT RAIN THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A RATHER FRACTURED SPLIT FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH
WILL COOL TEMPERATURES OFF INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
OVER ALL SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING THE WIND FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST 25-30 KNOTS OVER KJMS IN THE 18Z TO
23Z TIME FRAME...TAPERING OFF TO THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

STILL EVALUATING THE NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST EXPERIMENTAL RAP/HRRR DATA SHOWS LOWER MIN RH VALUES LESS
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
WINDS. AT THIS POINT...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT WITH INCREASED FIRE
DANGER IN SAID AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY COORDINATE
A RED FLAG WARNING OVER MY EASTERN ZONES FOR THE NEXT FORECAST
UPDATE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...ZH
FIRE WEATHER...ZH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 030236 CCA
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC...THE
ONGOING FORECAST FOR A QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT REMAINS WELL ON
TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

COOL UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL EXIT
THE AREA TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION. THE IMPACT FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH TO THE WESTERN DEVILS LAKE AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE. AT THIS TIME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR THE ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
RIDGE PATTERN WITH THE H500 RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE H500 TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES
INLAND AND CLOSES OFF...EVENTUALLY RESIDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY
SATURDAY AND PUTTING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ABUNDANT RAIN THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A RATHER FRACTURED SPLIT FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH
WILL COOL TEMPERATURES OFF INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING TUESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT AND WILL
COINCIDE WITH THESE WINDS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE TIME DURATION OF THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS
WITH 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 20
PERCENT APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. WITH INSUFFICIENT DURATION
AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE...WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS
UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 030236 CCA
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC...THE
ONGOING FORECAST FOR A QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT REMAINS WELL ON
TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

COOL UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL EXIT
THE AREA TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION. THE IMPACT FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH TO THE WESTERN DEVILS LAKE AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE. AT THIS TIME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR THE ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
RIDGE PATTERN WITH THE H500 RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE H500 TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES
INLAND AND CLOSES OFF...EVENTUALLY RESIDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY
SATURDAY AND PUTTING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ABUNDANT RAIN THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A RATHER FRACTURED SPLIT FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH
WILL COOL TEMPERATURES OFF INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING TUESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT AND WILL
COINCIDE WITH THESE WINDS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE TIME DURATION OF THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS
WITH 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 20
PERCENT APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. WITH INSUFFICIENT DURATION
AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE...WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS
UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 030233
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC WITH

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC...THE
ONGOING FORECAST FOR A QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT REMAINS WELL ON
TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

COOL UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL EXIT
THE AREA TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION. THE IMPACT FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH TO THE WESTERN DEVILS LAKE AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE. AT THIS TIME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR THE ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
RIDGE PATTERN WITH THE H500 RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE H500 TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES
INLAND AND CLOSES OFF...EVENTUALLY RESIDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY
SATURDAY AND PUTTING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ABUNDANT RAIN THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A RATHER FRACTURED SPLIT FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH
WILL COOL TEMPERATURES OFF INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING TUESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT AND WILL
COINCIDE WITH THESE WINDS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE TIME DURATION OF THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS
WITH 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 20
PERCENT APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. WITH INSUFFICIENT DURATION
AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE...WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS
UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 030233
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC WITH

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC...THE
ONGOING FORECAST FOR A QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT REMAINS WELL ON
TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

COOL UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL EXIT
THE AREA TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION. THE IMPACT FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH TO THE WESTERN DEVILS LAKE AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE. AT THIS TIME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR THE ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
RIDGE PATTERN WITH THE H500 RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE H500 TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES
INLAND AND CLOSES OFF...EVENTUALLY RESIDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY
SATURDAY AND PUTTING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ABUNDANT RAIN THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A RATHER FRACTURED SPLIT FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH
WILL COOL TEMPERATURES OFF INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING TUESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT AND WILL
COINCIDE WITH THESE WINDS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE TIME DURATION OF THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS
WITH 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 20
PERCENT APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. WITH INSUFFICIENT DURATION
AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE...WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS
UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 022341
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC...THE
ONGOING FORECAST FOR A QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT REMAINS WELL ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

COOL UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL EXIT
THE AREA TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION. THE IMPACT FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH TO THE WESTERN DEVILS LAKE AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE. AT THIS TIME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR THE ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
RIDGE PATTERN WITH THE H500 RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE H500 TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES
INLAND AND CLOSES OFF...EVENTUALLY RESIDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY
SATURDAY AND PUTTING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ABUNDANT RAIN THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A RATHER FRACTURED SPLIT FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH
WILL COOL TEMPERATURES OFF INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING TUESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT AND WILL
COINCIDE WITH THESE WINDS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE TIME DURATION OF THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS
WITH 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 20
PERCENT APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. WITH INSUFFICIENT DURATION
AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE...WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS
UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 022002
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
302 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

COOL UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL EXIT
THE AREA TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION. THE IMPACT FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH TO THE WESTERN DEVILS LAKE AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE. AT THIS TIME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR THE ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
RIDGE PATTERN WITH THE H500 RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE H500 TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES
INLAND AND CLOSES OFF...EVENTUALLY RESIDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY
SATURDAY AND PUTTING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ABUNDANT RAIN THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A RATHER FRACTURED SPLIT FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH
WILL COOL TEMPERATURES OFF INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

AT 3 PM CDT MONDAY LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. VFR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING TUESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT AND WILL
COINCIDE WITH THESE WINDS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE TIME DURATION OF THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS
WITH 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 20
PERCENT APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. WITH INSUFFICIENT DURATION
AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE...WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS
UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 021729
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1229 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

SHOWER CLUSTER MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION NOW NEARLY OUT OF T
EH STATE. SO FAR THE LIGHTNING HAS BEEN VERY SPARSE...IN FACT
NONE SINCE ABOUT 5 AM. WILL HOWEVER...MAINTAIN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. SKIES CLEARING NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST
TRENDING WELL.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF DEVILS LAKE AT 14Z TRACKING
SOUTH WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF MINOT.
UPPER LOW CREATING INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND HAVE HAD
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES SO FAR.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TEH MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. CLEARING NORTH. CURRENT
FORECAST TRACKING WILL AND JUST UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING. AS WE HEAT UP...THE CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN
THUS WENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES SO ADJUSTED POPS AND CLOUD COVER ACCORDINGLY THERE. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING SO EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE DESTABILIZE FURTHER...THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE RAP IS INDICATING POSSIBLE CONVECTION AS FAR
NORTH AS WELLS COUNTY AND AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES...SO EXTENDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE MORE DETAILED
DISCUSSION OF NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
STILL HOLDS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OF THE POTENTIAL OF
STORMS NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE LOW TOP CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DETAILS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATING
AND SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING. A 100KT
JET STREAK WAS SEEN DIVING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER
LOW. CANADIAN/LOCAL MINOT RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. MINOT AIR FORCE BASE
IS THE ONLY REPORTING SURFACE STATION AT THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
RAIN. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE
THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THINGS POTENTIALLY GET MORE INTERESTING THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT (-24C) ASSOCIATED WITH A H7-H5 CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DECENT LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN NOON CDT-6PM CDT
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE 200-300 J/KG AND STEEP (1000-85MB) LAPSE
RATES OF 8.5C/KM...ALONG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55KT-65KT.
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT CAPE/UPWARD MOMENTUM IS LACKING DUE TO
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ASCENT WILL BE FULFILLED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED 100KT JET STREAK...WHICH
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS EXPECTING LOW TOP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL HEIGHTS PER BISMARCK BUFKIT SOUNDING OF AROUND 18KFT. WITH
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT/STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE VORTICITY STRETCHING INTO
THE VERTICAL COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR COMPOSITE INDICATE THE FIRST SURGE OF
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SLIDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING...THEN POCKETS OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITYS DEVELOP AGAIN
BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CONVECTION WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE. LATER MONDAY NIGHT...A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HEAD SOUTH AND REACH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BRIEF/MINOR COOLING FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL (700MB-
500MB) RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TAKE CONTROL AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL DEFLECT ANY SHORTWAVES RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE TO
REMAIN IN SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AND PEAKING
BETWEEN +16C TO +20C THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TAKING THESE TEMPERATURES DOWN
DRY ADIABATICALLY TO THE SURFACE TRANSLATES INTO HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A CLOSED
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...EJECTS
NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPIATION SHIELD IS FORECAST INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

AT NOON CDT MONDAY LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. VFR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR TUESDAY...JUST A HEADS UP THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
20 AND 25 PERCENT AND WILL COINCIDE WITH THESE WINDS OVER A SMALL
PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE TIME DURATION OF
THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS WITH 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 20 PERCENT APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
WITH INSUFFICIENT DURATION AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE...WOULD NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SYNOPSIS...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 021432
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
932 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF DEVILS LAKE AT 14Z TRACKING
SOUTH WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF MINOT.
UPPER LOW CREATING INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND HAVE HAD
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES SO FAR.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TEH MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. CLEARING NORTH. CURRENT
FORECAST TRACKING WILL AND JUST UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING. AS WE HEAT UP...THE CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN
THUS WENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES SO ADJUSTED POPS AND CLOUD COVER ACCORDINGLY THERE. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING SO EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE DESTABILIZE FURTHER...THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE RAP IS INDICATING POSSIBLE CONVECTION AS FAR
NORTH AS WELLS COUNTY AND AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES...SO EXTENDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE MORE DETAILED
DISCUSSION OF NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
STILL HOLDS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OF THE POTENTIAL OF
STORMS NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE LOW TOP CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DETAILS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATING
AND SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING. A 100KT
JET STREAK WAS SEEN DIVING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER
LOW. CANADIAN/LOCAL MINOT RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. MINOT AIR FORCE BASE
IS THE ONLY REPORTING SURFACE STATION AT THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
RAIN. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE
THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THINGS POTENTIALLY GET MORE INTERESTING THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT (-24C) ASSOCIATED WITH A H7-H5 CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DECENT LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN NOON CDT-6PM CDT
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE 200-300 J/KG AND STEEP (1000-85MB) LAPSE
RATES OF 8.5C/KM...ALONG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55KT-65KT.
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT CAPE/UPWARD MOMENTUM IS LACKING DUE TO
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ASCENT WILL BE FULFILLED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED 100KT JET STREAK...WHICH
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS EXPECTING LOW TOP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL HEIGHTS PER BISMARCK BUFKIT SOUNDING OF AROUND 18KFT. WITH
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT/STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE VORTICITY STRETCHING INTO
THE VERTICAL COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR COMPOSITE INDICATE THE FIRST SURGE OF
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SLIDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING...THEN POCKETS OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITYS DEVELOP AGAIN
BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CONVECTION WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE. LATER MONDAY NIGHT...A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HEAD SOUTH AND REACH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BRIEF/MINOR COOLING FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL (700MB-
500MB) RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TAKE CONTROL AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL DEFLECT ANY SHORTWAVES RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE TO
REMAIN IN SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AND PEAKING
BETWEEN +16C TO +20C THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TAKING THESE TEMPERATURES DOWN
DRY ADIABATICALLY TO THE SURFACE TRANSLATES INTO HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A CLOSED
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...EJECTS
NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPIATION SHIELD IS FORECAST INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

-SHRA ARE FORECAST AT KBIS BETWEEN 12Z-15Z AND KJMS 14Z-17Z MONDAY
WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 8000FT. A VCTS WAS MENTIONED AT AT KBIS FROM
17Z MONDAY THROUGH 22Z MONDAY. NOT MENTION OF VCTS ELSE. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION AT KDIK AND KJMS. EXPECT A
CLEAR SKY AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. WINDS AROUND 10KT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDIK AND KISN WHERE GUSTS TO 20KT CAN BE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MID EVENING
AT ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR TUESDAY...JUST A HEADS UP THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
20 AND 25 PERCENT AND WILL COINCIDE WITH THESE WINDS OVER A SMALL
PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE TIME DURATION OF
THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS WITH 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 20 PERCENT APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
WITH INSUFFICIENT DURATION AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE...WOULD NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 021201
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
701 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING. AS WE HEAT UP...THE CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN
THUS WENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES SO ADJUSTED POPS AND CLOUD COVER ACCORDINGLY THERE. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING SO EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE DESTABILIZE FURTHER...THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE RAP IS INDICATING POSSIBLE CONVECTION AS FAR
NORTH AS WELLS COUNTY AND AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES...SO EXTENDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE MORE DETAILED
DISCUSSION OF NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
STILL HOLDS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OF THE POTENTIAL OF
STORMS NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE LOW TOP CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DETAILS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATING
AND SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING. A 100KT
JET STREAK WAS SEEN DIVING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER
LOW. CANADIAN/LOCAL MINOT RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. MINOT AIR FORCE BASE
IS THE ONLY REPORTING SURFACE STATION AT THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
RAIN. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE
THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THINGS POTENTIALLY GET MORE INTERESTING THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT (-24C) ASSOCIATED WITH A H7-H5 CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DECENT LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN NOON CDT-6PM CDT
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE 200-300 J/KG AND STEEP (1000-85MB) LAPSE
RATES OF 8.5C/KM...ALONG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55KT-65KT.
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT CAPE/UPWARD MOMENTUM IS LACKING DUE TO
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ASCENT WILL BE FULFILLED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED 100KT JET STREAK...WHICH
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS EXPECTING LOW TOP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL HEIGHTS PER BISMARCK BUFKIT SOUNDING OF AROUND 18KFT. WITH
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT/STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE VORTICITY STRETCHING INTO
THE VERTICAL COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR COMPOSITE INDICATE THE FIRST SURGE OF
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SLIDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING...THEN POCKETS OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITYS DEVELOP AGAIN
BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CONVECTION WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE. LATER MONDAY NIGHT...A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HEAD SOUTH AND REACH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BRIEF/MINOR COOLING FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL (700MB-
500MB) RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TAKE CONTROL AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL DEFLECT ANY SHORTWAVES RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE TO
REMAIN IN SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AND PEAKING
BETWEEN +16C TO +20C THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TAKING THESE TEMPERATURES DOWN
DRY ADIABATICALLY TO THE SURFACE TRANSLATES INTO HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A CLOSED
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...EJECTS
NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPIATION SHIELD IS FORECAST INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

-SHRA ARE FORECAST AT KBIS BETWEEN 12Z-15Z AND KJMS 14Z-17Z MONDAY
WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 8000FT. A VCTS WAS MENTIONED AT AT KBIS FROM
17Z MONDAY THROUGH 22Z MONDAY. NOT MENTION OF VCTS ELSE. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION AT KDIK AND KJMS. EXPECT A
CLEAR SKY AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. WINDS AROUND 10KT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDIK AND KISN WHERE GUSTS TO 20KT CAN BE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MID EVENING
AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR TUESDAY...JUST A HEADS UP THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
20 AND 25 PERCENT AND WILL COINCIDE WITH THESE WINDS OVER A SMALL
PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE TIME DURATION OF
THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS WITH 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 20 PERCENT APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
WITH INSUFFICIENT DURATION AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE...WOULD NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 020830
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE LOW TOP CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DETAILS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATING
AND SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING. A 100KT
JET STREAK WAS SEEN DIVING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER
LOW. CANADIAN/LOCAL MINOT RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. MINOT AIR FORCE BASE
IS THE ONLY REPORTING SURFACE STATION AT THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
RAIN. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE
THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THINGS POTENTIALLY GET MORE INTERESTING THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT (-24C) ASSOCIATED WITH A H7-H5 CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DECENT LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN NOON CDT-6PM CDT
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE 200-300 J/KG AND STEEP (1000-85MB) LAPSE
RATES OF 8.5C/KM...ALONG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55KT-65KT.
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT CAPE/UPWARD MOMENTUM IS LACKING DUE TO
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ASCENT WILL BE FULFILLED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED 100KT JET STREAK...WHICH
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS EXPECTING LOW TOP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL HEIGHTS PER BISMARCK BUFKIT SOUNDING OF AROUND 18KFT. WITH
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT/STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE VORTICITY STRETCHING INTO
THE VERTICAL COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR COMPOSITE INDICATE THE FIRST SURGE OF
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SLIDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING...THEN POCKETS OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITYS DEVELOP AGAIN
BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CONVECTION WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE. LATER MONDAY NIGHT...A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HEAD SOUTH AND REACH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BRIEF/MINOR COOLING FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL (700MB-
500MB) RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TAKE CONTROL AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL DEFLECT ANY SHORTWAVES RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE TO
REMAIN IN SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AND PEAKING
BETWEEN +16C TO +20C THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TAKING THESE TEMPERATURES DOWN
DRY ADIABATICALLY TO THE SURFACE TRANSLATES INTO HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A CLOSED
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...EJECTS
NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPIATION SHIELD IS FORECAST INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

-SHRA ARE FORECAST AT KMOT UNTIL 12Z MONDAY....AND AT KBIS BETWEEN
12Z-16Z MONDAY WITH BKN CIGS/5000FT-8000FT. A VCTS WAS MENTIONED AT
KDIK FROM 16Z-21Z MONDAY...AND AT KBIS FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY. EXPECT A CLEAR SKY AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY.
WINDS AROUND 10KT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDIK WHERE GUSTS TO 20KT CAN
BE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR TUESDAY...JUST A HEADS UP THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
20 AND 25 PERCENT AND WILL COINCIDE WITH THESE WINDS OVER A SMALL
PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE TIME DURATION OF
THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS WITH 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 20 PERCENT APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
WITH INSUFFICIENT DURATION AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE...WOULD NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...KS/TWH
FIRE WEATHER...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 020545
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1245 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTING A 100KT JET STREAK DIVING SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA.
CANADIAN/LOCAL MINOT RADAR SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...BEGINNING TO IMPINGE INTO FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...AND
A POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
SHOWERS WORKING INTO MINOT BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...THEN INTO
BISMARCK 12Z-16Z MONDAY. CONCUR WITH THIS TIMING BASED ON THE
ABOVE.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...COLD POCKET ALOFT (-24C) ASSOCIATED WITH
THE H7-H5 CLOSED LOW SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK WILL BE ALIGNED ATOP OF THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND STRONG 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55KT-65KT BETWEEN 18Z-00Z OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BISMARCK BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOW THE
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 18KFT MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS LOW TOP
CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. WILL
ADDRESS THIS FURTHER IN THE NEXT DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
CENTRAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT
LOBE THAT WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA. THE 00-01 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MODEST SIGNAL IN THEIR FLASH DENSITY
FIELDS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS SUPPORTED ON A
LARGER SCALE WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD POCKET ALOFT WITH THE VORT LOBE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 23 UTC...AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 20-22 UTC HIGH
RESOLUTION SUITES DEPICTING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VORT LOBE CLEARLY
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER LAKE WINNIPEG EARLY THIS
EVENING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES EXTENDED WELL
NORTH INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THIS ELONGATED RIDGE WAS OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WAS
MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
WILL DROP SOUTH BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT...AND IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON
MONDAY. WEAK CAPE BUT STRONG BULK SHEAR ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME TALL SKINNY AND WEAK
CAPE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.
TIMING INDICATES THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE IN THE LATE
MORNING...AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AREAS. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH FOR ANY AREA RIGHT BENEATH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER.

AS THE CURRENT COOL HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO OUR SOUTH
TONIGHT...WARMER AIR UP TO H850 WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON MONDAY DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OVERALL...DRY AND SEASONABLE TO MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HUDSON BAY LOW/TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND EXPECTING HIGHS
WEDNESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS/JAMES
VALLEY TO THE MID 70S IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

BY THURSDAY THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS BRINGING A VERY WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

BY FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER
CALIFORNIA/4-CORNERS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL
HAVE ADVANCED INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...-SHRA ARE FORECAST AT KMOT BETWEEN
08Z-12Z MONDAY....AND AT KBIS BETWEEN 12Z-16Z MONDAY WITH BKN
CIGS/5000FT-8000FT. A VCTS WAS MENTIONED AT KDIK FROM 16Z-21Z
MONDAY...AND AT KBIS FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. EXPECT A
CLEAR SKY AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. WINDS AROUND 10KT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDIK WHERE GUSTS TO 20KT CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 020250
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
950 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
CENTRAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT
LOBE THAT WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA. THE 00-01 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MODEST SIGNAL IN THEIR FLASH DENSITY
FIELDS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS SUPPORTED ON A
LARGER SCALE WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD POCKET ALOFT WITH THE VORT LOBE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 23 UTC...AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 20-22 UTC HIGH
RESOLUTION SUITES DEPICTING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VORT LOBE CLEARLY
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER LAKE WINNIPEG EARLY THIS
EVENING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES EXTENDED WELL
NORTH INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THIS ELONGATED RIDGE WAS OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WAS
MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
WILL DROP SOUTH BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT...AND IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON
MONDAY. WEAK CAPE BUT STRONG BULK SHEAR ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME TALL SKINNY AND WEAK
CAPE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.
TIMING INDICATES THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE IN THE LATE
MORNING...AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AREAS. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH FOR ANY AREA RIGHT BENEATH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER.

AS THE CURRENT COOL HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO OUR SOUTH
TONIGHT...WARMER AIR UP TO H850 WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON MONDAY DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OVERALL...DRY AND SEASONABLE TO MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HUDSON BAY LOW/TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND EXPECTING HIGHS
WEDNESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS/JAMES
VALLEY TO THE MID 70S IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

BY THURSDAY THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS BRINGING A VERY WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

BY FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER
CALIFORNIA/4-CORNERS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL
HAVE ADVANCED INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD





000
FXUS63 KBIS 012359
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
659 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 23 UTC...AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 20-22 UTC HIGH
RESOLUTION SUITES DEPICTING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VORT LOBE CLEARLY
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER LAKE WINNIPEG EARLY THIS
EVENING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES EXTENDED WELL
NORTH INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THIS ELONGATED RIDGE WAS OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WAS
MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
WILL DROP SOUTH BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT...AND IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON
MONDAY. WEAK CAPE BUT STRONG BULK SHEAR ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME TALL SKINNY AND WEAK
CAPE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.
TIMING INDICATES THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE IN THE LATE
MORNING...AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AREAS. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH FOR ANY AREA RIGHT BENEATH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER.

AS THE CURRENT COOL HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO OUR SOUTH
TONIGHT...WARMER AIR UP TO H850 WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON MONDAY DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OVERALL...DRY AND SEASONABLE TO MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HUDSON BAY LOW/TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND EXPECTING HIGHS
WEDNESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS/JAMES
VALLEY TO THE MID 70S IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

BY THURSDAY THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS BRINGING A VERY WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

BY FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER
CALIFORNIA/4-CORNERS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL
HAVE ADVANCED INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD





000
FXUS63 KBIS 012359
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
659 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 23 UTC...AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 20-22 UTC HIGH
RESOLUTION SUITES DEPICTING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VORT LOBE CLEARLY
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER LAKE WINNIPEG EARLY THIS
EVENING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES EXTENDED WELL
NORTH INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THIS ELONGATED RIDGE WAS OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WAS
MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
WILL DROP SOUTH BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT...AND IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON
MONDAY. WEAK CAPE BUT STRONG BULK SHEAR ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME TALL SKINNY AND WEAK
CAPE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.
TIMING INDICATES THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE IN THE LATE
MORNING...AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AREAS. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH FOR ANY AREA RIGHT BENEATH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER.

AS THE CURRENT COOL HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO OUR SOUTH
TONIGHT...WARMER AIR UP TO H850 WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON MONDAY DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OVERALL...DRY AND SEASONABLE TO MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HUDSON BAY LOW/TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND EXPECTING HIGHS
WEDNESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS/JAMES
VALLEY TO THE MID 70S IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

BY THURSDAY THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS BRINGING A VERY WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

BY FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER
CALIFORNIA/4-CORNERS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL
HAVE ADVANCED INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD





000
FXUS63 KBIS 012022
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
322 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES EXTENDED WELL
NORTH INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THIS ELONGATED RIDGE WAS OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WAS
MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
WILL DROP SOUTH BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT...AND IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON
MONDAY. WEAK CAPE BUT STRONG BULK SHEAR ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME TALL SKINNY AND WEAK
CAPE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.
TIMING INDICATES THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WOULD BE IN THE LATE
MORNING...AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AREAS. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH FOR ANY AREA RIGHT BENEATH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER.

AS THE CURRENT COOL HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO OUR SOUTH
TONIGHT...WARMER AIR UP TO H850 WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON MONDAY DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OVERALL...DRY AND SEASONABLE TO MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HUDSON BAY LOW/TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND EXPECTING HIGHS
WEDNESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS/JAMES
VALLEY TO THE MID 70S IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

BY THURSDAY THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS BRINGING A VERY WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

BY FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER
CALIFORNIA/4-CORNERS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL
HAVE ADVANCED INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AT NOON CDT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN
THE TAFS DUE TIMING AND AREAL UNCERTAINTY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 011750
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSED EASTERN MONTANA AND MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE LIGHT NORTHWEST/NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS...BUT SOME AREAS WILL SEE VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS. OTHERWISE
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE BORDER OF MONTANA/WYOMING/DAKOTAS
THIS MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHEAST/NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GOOD MIX-OUT DAY...AND AS SURFACE
LINKS ALOFT TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS LOWER.
EXPECTING LOWER AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM 15 TO 20
PERCENT. FARTHER SOUTH 20 TO 25 PERCENT VALUES WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE
FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL
DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LIGHT WINDS
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ARE IN STORE. AS FAR AS THE EARLY MORNING
UPDATE THE ONLY CHANCE WAS TO UPDATE LATEST OBSERVATIONS RESULTING
IN A COOLER START TO THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP SOUTH
BRINING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWER INTO THE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DID MANUALLY ADJUST AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN OUR DEFAULT GUIDANCE...GIVING US SOME
HUMIDITIES IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 20 TO 25 PERCENT RH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA. BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
FOR TODAY. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES 2-5 DEGREES OVER SATURDAYS
HIGHS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WHICH DROPS ALMOST DUE SOUTH ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG WESTERN U.S./CANADA UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP SOME LIGHT QPF DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 09 UTC.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OVERALL...DRY AND SEASONABLE TO MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DEVELOPS A
CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...WOULD NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND QPF AMOUNTS OF MAYBE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
TOPS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

ANOTHER WAVE DROPS DOWN THE BUILDING RIDGE ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. BY
THIS TIME THE RIDGE HAS ADVANCED EASTWARD ENOUGH THAT ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE ONLY AFFECTS WILL BE A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
TUESDAY AND LOWER 60S EAST TO MID 70S WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR THE MOST PART BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER
RIDGE THAT HAS ADVANCED INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AT NOON CDT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN
THE TAFS DUE TIMING AND AREAL UNCERTAINTY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 011448
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
948 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE BORDER OF MONTANA/WYOMING/DAKOTAS
THIS MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHEAST/NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A GOOD MIX-OUT DAY...AND AS SURFACE
LINKS ALOFT TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS LOWER.
EXPECTING LOWER AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM 15 TO 20
PERCENT. FARTHER SOUTH 20 TO 25 PERCENT VALUES WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE
FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL
DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LIGHT WINDS
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ARE IN STORE. AS FAR AS THE EARLY MORNING
UPDATE THE ONLY CHANCE WAS TO UPDATE LATEST OBSERVATIONS RESULTING
IN A COOLER START TO THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP SOUTH
BRINING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWER INTO THE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DID MANUALLY ADJUST AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN OUR DEFAULT GUIDANCE...GIVING US SOME
HUMIDITIES IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 20 TO 25 PERCENT RH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA. BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
FOR TODAY. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES 2-5 DEGREES OVER SATURDAYS
HIGHS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WHICH DROPS ALMOST DUE SOUTH ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG WESTERN U.S./CANADA UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP SOME LIGHT QPF DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 09 UTC.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OVERALL...DRY AND SEASONABLE TO MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DEVELOPS A
CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...WOULD NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND QPF AMOUNTS OF MAYBE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
TOPS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

ANOTHER WAVE DROPS DOWN THE BUILDING RIDGE ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. BY
THIS TIME THE RIDGE HAS ADVANCED EASTWARD ENOUGH THAT ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE ONLY AFFECTS WILL BE A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
TUESDAY AND LOWER 60S EAST TO MID 70S WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR THE MOST PART BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER
RIDGE THAT HAS ADVANCED INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SKC THROUGH 06Z MON...THEN SCT/BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 5KFT AND 10KFT.
LIGHT WINDS NEXT 24HR...LESS THAN 10KT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 011125
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
625 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL
DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LIGHT WINDS
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ARE IN STORE. AS FAR AS THE EARLY MORNING
UPDATE THE ONLY CHANCE WAS TO UPDATE LATEST OBSERVATIONS RESULTING
IN A COOLER START TO THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP SOUTH
BRINING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWER INTO THE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DID MANUALLY ADJUST AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN OUR DEFAULT GUIDANCE...GIVING US SOME
HUMIDITIES IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 20 TO 25 PERCENT RH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA. BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
FOR TODAY. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES 2-5 DEGREES OVER SATURDAYS
HIGHS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WHICH DROPS ALMOST DUE SOUTH ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG WESTERN U.S./CANADA UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP SOME LIGHT QPF DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 09 UTC.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OVERALL...DRY AND SEASONABLE TO MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DEVELOPS A
CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...WOULD NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND QPF AMOUNTS OF MAYBE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
TOPS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

ANOTHER WAVE DROPS DOWN THE BUILDING RIDGE ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. BY
THIS TIME THE RIDGE HAS ADVANCED EASTWARD ENOUGH THAT ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE ONLY AFFECTS WILL BE A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
TUESDAY AND LOWER 60S EAST TO MID 70S WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR THE MOST PART BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER
RIDGE THAT HAS ADVANCED INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SKC THROUGH 06Z MON...THEN SCT/BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 5KFT AND 10KFT.
LIGHT WINDS NEXT 24HR...LESS THAN 10KT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH





000
FXUS63 KBIS 010837
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
337 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP SOUTH
BRINING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWER INTO THE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DID MANUALLY ADJUST AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN OUR DEFAULT GUIDANCE...GIVING US SOME
HUMIDITIES IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND 20 TO 25 PERCENT RH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA. BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
FOR TODAY. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES 2-5 DEGREES OVER SATURDAYS
HIGHS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WHICH DROPS ALMOST DUE SOUTH ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG WESTERN U.S./CANADA UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP SOME LIGHT QPF DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 09 UTC.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

OVERALL...DRY AND SEASONABLE TO MILD THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.

THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DEVELOPS A
CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...WOULD NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND QPF AMOUNTS OF MAYBE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
TOPS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

ANOTHER WAVE DROPS DOWN THE BUILDING RIDGE ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. BY
THIS TIME THE RIDGE HAS ADVANCED EASTWARD ENOUGH THAT ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE ONLY AFFECTS WILL BE A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
TUESDAY AND LOWER 60S EAST TO MID 70S WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR THE MOST PART BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BY FRIDAY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER
RIDGE THAT HAS ADVANCED INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LIGHT WINDS....LESS THAN 10KT NEXT 24HR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 010522
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1222 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FEW
LOCALES WERE NEAR OVERNIGHT LOWS SO DROPPED TEMPERATURES IN A FEW
AREAS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
DIURNALLY WITH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

REX BLOCK H500 PATTERN CONTINUES TO PROVIDE NORTH DAKOTA WITH QUIET
WEATHER. THE NORTHERN BRANCH H500 HIGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE THE H500 UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA REGION. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL EVENTUALLY KICK OUT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
REMNANTS OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.
THE RESULT WILL BE SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S WITH
SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE H500 RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALBERTA MONDAY. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO OVER-TOP IT AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE MORE THAN THE
GFS AND EVEN CLOSES OFF AN H500 LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY...GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AN ASSOCIATED
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THE GFS KEEPS THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE REGION AND AS SUCH IS WARMER. WILL FOLLOW THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE ON MONDAY AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER AS A
TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY CARVING OUT A
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE H500 RIDGE AXIS IN EASTERN
MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE
70S WEST BUT WITH NORTHERN FLOW ALOFT EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EAST...MORE LIKE MID 50S ACROSS TEH WESTERN DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST PUTTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WILL PROBABLY START
TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS AND LIGHT WINDS....LESS THAN 10KT NEXT 24HR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 010223
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
923 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
DIURNALLY WITH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

REX BLOCK H500 PATTERN CONTINUES TO PROVIDE NORTH DAKOTA WITH QUIET
WEATHER. THE NORTHERN BRANCH H500 HIGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE THE H500 UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA REGION. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL EVENTUALLY KICK OUT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
REMNANTS OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.
THE RESULT WILL BE SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S WITH
SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE H500 RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALBERTA MONDAY. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO OVER-TOP IT AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE MORE THAN THE
GFS AND EVEN CLOSES OFF AN H500 LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY...GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AN ASSOCIATED
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THE GFS KEEPS THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE REGION AND AS SUCH IS WARMER. WILL FOLLOW THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE ON MONDAY AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER AS A
TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY CARVING OUT A
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE H500 RIDGE AXIS IN EASTERN
MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE
70S WEST BUT WITH NORTHERN FLOW ALOFT EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EAST...MORE LIKE MID 50S ACROSS TEH WESTERN DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST PUTTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WILL PROBABLY START
TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AYD





000
FXUS63 KBIS 302333
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
DIURNALLY WITH SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

REX BLOCK H500 PATTERN CONTINUES TO PROVIDE NORTH DAKOTA WITH QUIET
WEATHER. THE NORTHERN BRANCH H500 HIGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE THE H500 UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA REGION. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL EVENTUALLY KICK OUT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
REMNANTS OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.
THE RESULT WILL BE SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S WITH
SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE H500 RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALBERTA MONDAY. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO OVER-TOP IT AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE MORE THAN THE
GFS AND EVEN CLOSES OFF AN H500 LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY...GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AN ASSOCIATED
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THE GFS KEEPS THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE REGION AND AS SUCH IS WARMER. WILL FOLLOW THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE ON MONDAY AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER AS A
TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY CARVING OUT A
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE H500 RIDGE AXIS IN EASTERN
MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE
70S WEST BUT WITH NORTHERN FLOW ALOFT EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EAST...MORE LIKE MID 50S ACROSS TEH WESTERN DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST PUTTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WILL PROBABLY START
TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AYD





000
FXUS63 KBIS 301950
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
250 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

REX BLOCK H500 PATTERN CONTINUES TO PROVIDE NORTH DAKOTA WITH QUIET
WEATHER. THE NORTHERN BRANCH H500 HIGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE THE H500 UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA REGION. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL EVENTUALLY KICK OUT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE
REMNANTS OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WITH THE H500 RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.
THE RESULT WILL BE SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S WITH
SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE H500 RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALBERTA MONDAY. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO OVER-TOP IT AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE MORE THAN THE
GFS AND EVEN CLOSES OFF AN H500 LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY...GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AN ASSOCIATED
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THE GFS KEEPS THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE REGION AND AS SUCH IS WARMER. WILL FOLLOW THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE ON MONDAY AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER AS A
TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY CARVING OUT A
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE H500 RIDGE AXIS IN EASTERN
MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE
70S WEST BUT WITH NORTHERN FLOW ALOFT EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EAST...MORE LIKE MID 50S ACROSS TEH WESTERN DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS MOVES SLOWLY EAST PUTTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WILL PROBABLY START
TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OF
25 TO 35KTS AT KJMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TAF
SITES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 8 PM CDT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 301744
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY IS THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SEEING SOME CUMULUS FORMATION ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST THAT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN UNDERNEATH THE NORTHERN H500 HIGH COMPONENT
OF THE REX BLOCK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL VERY DRY AIR SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND LOW RH
VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY NORTH. CLOUDS
SPILLING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
H500 DEFORMATION ZONE SO WILL INCREASE CLOUDS SOUTH. OTHERWISE
FORECAST TRENDING WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

ADJUSTED SKY COVER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO BRING
SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AROUND 18 UTC. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR ARE INDICATING A
CU FIELD DEVELOPING HERE MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FEET. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
OTHER THAN UPDATING LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

OVERALL A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS PRODUCING A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
THROUGH THIS MORNING BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THEN BEGINS TO
RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST.

THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUST
TO AROUND 30 MPH. WINDS WILL LESSEN AS YOU MOVE NORTH AND EAST BUT
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS TO AROUND 20 MPH FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL ALSO SEE OUR WARMEST
TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. WE STARTED WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HUMIDITIES GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS RESULTS IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ANYWHERE FROM 18 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL. FIRE DANGER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL REMAINS IN THE
VERY HIGH CATEGORY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL NOT CORRESPOND WITH THE LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
PASS THIS ALONG TO THE DAY SHIFT BUT AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS. IF WINDS WOULD HOLD UP INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND HUMIDITIES DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST WE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. EVEN IF THIS OCCURS...THINK
IT WOULD BE HARD TO REACH THE REQUIRED TIME FRAME OF A 3 HOUR
PERIOD...SO THINK ITS MINIMAL ENOUGH THAT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
NOT NEEDED.

EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS SHOVING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND THIS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-DAY OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING.

MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY TRANSLATES SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPING
BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WAVE TRAVERSING THE
BUILDING RIDGE ON MONDAY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. THIS IS FARTHER EAST THAN 24 HOURS AGO
AND IS THE WEST OUTLIER IN THE ENVELOPE OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW OUR MODEL BLEND KEEPS IT DRY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION. A STRONGER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE
RIDGE BY MID WEEK IS FARTHER EAST BUT LOOKS TO BRING SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN WARMING INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WAVE DEVELOPS INTO THE EAST LOW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
OMEGA BLOCK. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF WANTS TO MERGE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WITH THE WESTERN LOW AS THE NORTHERN WAVE BREAKS DOWN THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND KEEPS THE WESTERN TROUGH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH SIGNIFICANT DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES AND A LARGE
SPREAD OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK...WILL STICK WITH OUR MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WHICH DOES BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OF
25 TO 35KTS AT KJMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TAF
SITES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 8 PM CDT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 301434
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
934 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN UNDERNEATH THE NORTHERN H500 HIGH COMPONENT
OF THE REX BLOCK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL VERY DRY AIR SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND LOW RH
VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY NORTH. CLOUDS
SPILLING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
H500 DEFORMATION ZONE SO WILL INCREASE CLOUDS SOUTH. OTHERWISE
FORECAST TRENDING WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

ADJUSTED SKY COVER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO BRING
SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AROUND 18 UTC. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR ARE INDICATING A
CU FIELD DEVELOPING HERE MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FEET. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
OTHER THAN UPDATING LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

OVERALL A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS PRODUCING A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
THROUGH THIS MORNING BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THEN BEGINS TO
RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST.

THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUST
TO AROUND 30 MPH. WINDS WILL LESSEN AS YOU MOVE NORTH AND EAST BUT
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS TO AROUND 20 MPH FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL ALSO SEE OUR WARMEST
TEMPERATURES AND LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. WE STARTED WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HUMIDITIES GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS RESULTS IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ANYWHERE FROM 18 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL. FIRE DANGER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL REMAINS IN THE
VERY HIGH CATEGORY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL NOT CORRESPOND WITH THE LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
PASS THIS ALONG TO THE DAY SHIFT BUT AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS. IF WINDS WOULD HOLD UP INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND HUMIDITIES DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST WE COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. EVEN IF THIS OCCURS...THINK
IT WOULD BE HARD TO REACH THE REQUIRED TIME FRAME OF A 3 HOUR
PERIOD...SO THINK ITS MINIMAL ENOUGH THAT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
NOT NEEDED.

EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS SHOVING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND THIS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-DAY OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING.

MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY TRANSLATES SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPING
BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WAVE TRAVERSING THE
BUILDING RIDGE ON MONDAY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. THIS IS FARTHER EAST THAN 24 HOURS AGO
AND IS THE WEST OUTLIER IN THE ENVELOPE OF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW OUR MODEL BLEND KEEPS IT DRY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION. A STRONGER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE
RIDGE BY MID WEEK IS FARTHER EAST BUT LOOKS TO BRING SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN WARMING INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WAVE DEVELOPS INTO THE EAST LOW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
OMEGA BLOCK. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE AT THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF WANTS TO MERGE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WITH THE WESTERN LOW AS THE NORTHERN WAVE BREAKS DOWN THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND KEEPS THE WESTERN TROUGH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH SIGNIFICANT DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES AND A LARGE
SPREAD OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK...WILL STICK WITH OUR MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WHICH DOES BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A SCT/BKN CUMULUS
FIELD BASED AT 5KFT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS OF
15KT TO 25KT WILL OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH





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