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000
FXUS63 KBIS 260941
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE AREA OF SNOW MOVING OUT OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THE LINGERING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY`S SNOW
WAS OVER THE BORDER OF SD/NE/IA. THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD/EXITING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN NORTH DAKOTA - NEAR OAKES. NORTH WINDS OF
AROUND 20 MPH WERE OBSERVED AT 3 AM CST...AND THE THREAT OF BLOWING
OR DRIFTING SNOW WAS WANING. THEREFORE WILL END THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES AROUND JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH BY 4 AM CST.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...AND TEMPERATURES THERE WERE AROUND 20-25
BELOW ZERO WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA BORDER BY DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING. CLEARING
SKIES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.

WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
AND BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE EXTENDS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA...AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND LOWER 20S FAR SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ABOVE ZERO IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...EVEN REMAINING
IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY LIFTING NORTHERLY
TOWARDS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE GREATEST SNOW CHANCES MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AROUND 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL FORM
ALONG WITH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA. LATEST SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ANY FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF HIGHWAYS 2 AND 52 IN AREAS OF LESS
LIFT...THOUGH STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...THOUGH COULD BE ENOUGH TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WHILE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH A VARIETY OF
WEAK IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH. WARMER AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA
BRINGING A SHARP TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE. LOW PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...SPREADING SOUTH IN THE EVENING AS
LOW SHIFTS THROUGH. STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT REMAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME FRIGID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE  REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN.
SOME SNOW MAY DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REBOUND AGAIN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A LOW STARTS DEVELOPING TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BRINGING WARM
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER TAF SITES AT 06Z. SOME HINT AT
SCATTERING OUT OVER KMOT DURING THE EARLY MORNING...BUT SAW
OBSERVATIONS IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH MVFR CIG DESPITE SAT PICS
INDICATING SOME CLEARING...AND KEPT KMOT IN MVFR. IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE WILL INDUCES SOME -SN FLURRIES. GRADUALLY BECOMING
VFR AT KMOT AND KJMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT KDIK SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR AND OCNL IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN AFT 00Z
TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 260941
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE AREA OF SNOW MOVING OUT OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THE LINGERING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY`S SNOW
WAS OVER THE BORDER OF SD/NE/IA. THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD/EXITING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN NORTH DAKOTA - NEAR OAKES. NORTH WINDS OF
AROUND 20 MPH WERE OBSERVED AT 3 AM CST...AND THE THREAT OF BLOWING
OR DRIFTING SNOW WAS WANING. THEREFORE WILL END THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES AROUND JAMESTOWN AND SOUTH BY 4 AM CST.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...AND TEMPERATURES THERE WERE AROUND 20-25
BELOW ZERO WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA BORDER BY DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING. CLEARING
SKIES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.

WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
AND BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE EXTENDS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA...AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND LOWER 20S FAR SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ABOVE ZERO IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...EVEN REMAINING
IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY LIFTING NORTHERLY
TOWARDS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE GREATEST SNOW CHANCES MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AROUND 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL FORM
ALONG WITH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA. LATEST SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ANY FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF HIGHWAYS 2 AND 52 IN AREAS OF LESS
LIFT...THOUGH STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...THOUGH COULD BE ENOUGH TO
POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

ON FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WHILE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH A VARIETY OF
WEAK IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH. WARMER AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA
BRINGING A SHARP TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE. LOW PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY...SPREADING SOUTH IN THE EVENING AS
LOW SHIFTS THROUGH. STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT REMAINS.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME FRIGID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE  REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN.
SOME SNOW MAY DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING...WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REBOUND AGAIN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A LOW STARTS DEVELOPING TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BRINGING WARM
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER TAF SITES AT 06Z. SOME HINT AT
SCATTERING OUT OVER KMOT DURING THE EARLY MORNING...BUT SAW
OBSERVATIONS IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH MVFR CIG DESPITE SAT PICS
INDICATING SOME CLEARING...AND KEPT KMOT IN MVFR. IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE WILL INDUCES SOME -SN FLURRIES. GRADUALLY BECOMING
VFR AT KMOT AND KJMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT KDIK SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR AND OCNL IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN AFT 00Z
TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 260642
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1242 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

KEEPING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND
JUST WEST OF IT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW STILL FALLING
IN THIS AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. WILL EVALUATE LATER THIS
MORNING WHETHER TO END THE ADVISORY EARLY OR KEEP IT GOING UNTIL 6
AM CST.

OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES IN HOURLY TEMPERATURES WITH COLD ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALSO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW ALL AREAS: THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS AND OBSERVATIONS IN
SOUTHERN CANADA INDICATING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THIS AREA.

OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO CONTINUE TO SHRINK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WITH THIS UPDATE...CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SHRUNK THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC SUGGEST THAT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND
CANCELLED WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS OF 02 UTC IS NOW BECOMING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND TRIMMED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE TO TRIM DOWN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER AND
WIND ADVISORIES.

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOW BOUNDED GENERALLY BY US
HIGHWAY 2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHWAY 83 ACROSS THE WEST AS OF 00
UTC THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR...NAMELY ITS 21-22 UTC RUNS...ALL INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF
MESOSCALE BANDING WITH STEEP MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES...STRONG OMEGA
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF...FOCUSING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER TAF SITES AT 06Z. SOME HINT AT
SCATTERING OUT OVER KMOT DURING THE EARLY MORNING...BUT SAW
OBSERVATIONS IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH MVFR CIG DESPITE SAT PICS
INDICATING SOME CLEARING...AND KEPT KMOT IN MVFR. IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE WILL INDUCES SOME -SN FLURRIES. GRADUALLY BECOMING
VFR AT KMOT AND KJMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT KDIK SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR AND OCNL IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN AFT 00Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 260451
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1051 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO CONTNUE TO SHRINK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WITH THIS UPDATE...CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SHRUNK THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC SUGGEST THAT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND
CANCELLED WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS OF 02 UTC IS NOW BECOMING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND TRIMMED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE TO TRIM DOWN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER AND
WIND ADVISORIES.

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOW BOUNDED GENERALLY BY US
HIGHWAY 2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHWAY 83 ACROSS THE WEST AS OF 00
UTC THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR...NAMELY ITS 21-22 UTC RUNS...ALL INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF
MESOSCALE BANDING WITH STEEP MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES...STRONG OMEGA
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF...FOCUSING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 05-06
UTC...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 08-09
UTC. OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED POCKETS OF
IFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KBIS/KMOT/KDIK
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ025-036-
037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 260451
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1051 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO CONTNUE TO SHRINK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WITH THIS UPDATE...CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SHRUNK THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC SUGGEST THAT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND
CANCELLED WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS OF 02 UTC IS NOW BECOMING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND TRIMMED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE TO TRIM DOWN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER AND
WIND ADVISORIES.

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOW BOUNDED GENERALLY BY US
HIGHWAY 2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHWAY 83 ACROSS THE WEST AS OF 00
UTC THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR...NAMELY ITS 21-22 UTC RUNS...ALL INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF
MESOSCALE BANDING WITH STEEP MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES...STRONG OMEGA
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF...FOCUSING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 05-06
UTC...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 08-09
UTC. OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED POCKETS OF
IFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KBIS/KMOT/KDIK
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ025-036-
037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 260221
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WITH THIS UPDATE...CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SHRUNK THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC SUGGEST THAT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND
CANCELLED WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS OF 02 UTC IS NOW BECOMING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND TRIMMED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE TO TRIM DOWN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER AND
WIND ADVISORIES.

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOW BOUNDED GENERALLY BY US
HIGHWAY 2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHWAY 83 ACROSS THE WEST AS OF 00
UTC THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR...NAMELY ITS 21-22 UTC RUNS...ALL INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF
MESOSCALE BANDING WITH STEEP MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES...STRONG OMEGA
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF...FOCUSING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 05-06
UTC...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 08-09
UTC. OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED POCKETS OF
IFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KBIS/KMOT/KDIK
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ022.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 260221
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WITH THIS UPDATE...CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SHRUNK THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC SUGGEST THAT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND
CANCELLED WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS OF 02 UTC IS NOW BECOMING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND TRIMMED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE TO TRIM DOWN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER AND
WIND ADVISORIES.

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOW BOUNDED GENERALLY BY US
HIGHWAY 2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHWAY 83 ACROSS THE WEST AS OF 00
UTC THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR...NAMELY ITS 21-22 UTC RUNS...ALL INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF
MESOSCALE BANDING WITH STEEP MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES...STRONG OMEGA
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF...FOCUSING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 05-06
UTC...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 08-09
UTC. OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED POCKETS OF
IFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KBIS/KMOT/KDIK
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ022.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 260013
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE TO TRIM DOWN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER AND
WIND ADVISORIES.

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOW BOUNDED GENERALLY BY US
HIGHWAY 2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHWAY 83 ACROSS THE WEST AS OF 00
UTC THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR...NAMELY ITS 21-22 UTC RUNS...ALL INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF
MESOSCALE BANDING WITH STEEP MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES...STRONG OMEGA
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF...FOCUSING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 05-06
UTC...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 08-09
UTC. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KBIS AND KMOT WILL IMPROVE BETWEEN
01-03 UTC WITH MVFR STRATUS IMPACTING KISN AND KDIK THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ011-
021-035-046.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ012-
013-022.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-
043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 260013
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE TO TRIM DOWN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER AND
WIND ADVISORIES.

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOW BOUNDED GENERALLY BY US
HIGHWAY 2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHWAY 83 ACROSS THE WEST AS OF 00
UTC THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR...NAMELY ITS 21-22 UTC RUNS...ALL INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF
MESOSCALE BANDING WITH STEEP MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES...STRONG OMEGA
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF...FOCUSING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 05-06
UTC...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 08-09
UTC. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KBIS AND KMOT WILL IMPROVE BETWEEN
01-03 UTC WITH MVFR STRATUS IMPACTING KISN AND KDIK THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ011-
021-035-046.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ012-
013-022.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-
043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD









000
FXUS63 KBIS 252133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW AND
IFR CONDITIONS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS MVFR TO LOW VFR
WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-019>021-034-035-042-045-046.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-
018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ004-
005-012-013-022.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 252133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENSIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW AND
IFR CONDITIONS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS MVFR TO LOW VFR
WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-019>021-034-035-042-045-046.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-
018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ004-
005-012-013-022.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 251844
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1244 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AT 12 NOON CST IR SAT AND RUC MODEL SHOW THE VORT CENTER PAST
WILLISTON AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. SNOW SHOULD BE QUIT A BIT LIGHTER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST NOW. THE FOCUS FOR MODERATE SNOW FOR THE NEXT
2 TO 3 HOURS WILL BE FROM STANLEY SOUTHEAST TO BISMARCK. STARTING
TO SEE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 30S SOUTHWEST FOR HIGHS TODAY MAY BE A PROBLEM GETTING
MUCH BLOWING SNOW INITIALLY. AS TEMPERATURES FALL ROADS WILL
BECOME SLICK THERE. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY UNTIL THE BLOWING
SNOW ISSUES ARE RESOLVED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

IR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW VORT MAX JUST NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON MOVING
SOUTHEAST AS RUC13 MODEL SHOWS. TRACK OF THIS VORT SHOULD DEFINE
THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND FOR THE REMAINING MORNING HOURS FROM
WILLISTON TO GARRISON AND NORTH. LIGHTER SNOW SOUTHWEST OF THIS
LINE. WILLISTON SHOWING ONE HALF MILE VSBY IN MODERATE SNOW AT 9
AM CST. SNOW RATES SHOULD BEGIN TO LIGHTEN NORTHWEST ND AS THE
VORT LOBE MOVES PAST LATE THIS AM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS AREA OF SNOW MOVING
INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH THE MOST RECENT BAKER OB REPORTING SNOW.
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS WESTERN ND LOCATIONS AND
MARMARTH ND DOT WEB CAM NOW SHOWS SNOWFALL OCCURRING. BOWMAN RADAR
ALSO SHOWS STRONGER ECHOES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. ONLY CHANGES WERE
TO BLEND FORECAST TO MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
SNOW TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
AT UPPER LEVELS A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WAS COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...THE
SURFACE LOW/CLIPPER WILL ALSO TRACK SOUTHEAST QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL CREATE A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE STATE...THE BEST LIFT/INSTABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. MEANWHILE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK (SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF ND) WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 30S
THERE TODAY. THUS THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX...WHILE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE FAR
WEST...BECOME MORE INTENSE WITH TIME AS THE FAVORED SNOW BANDS
APPROACH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CLOSER TO NOON...AND CONTINUE THIS
EVENING OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THUS EXPECTING 3-4 INCHES
OF SNOW IN AN ARC/LINE FROM CROSBY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...TO
STANLEY/MINOT/BOTTINEAU TO BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN AND LINTON/OAKES.
AROUND 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR MAINLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED BECAUSE
OF THE FAIRLY WET NATURE OF THE FALLING SNOW...DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS
ROADWAYS COMBINED WITH SNOW-COVERED AND ICY ROADS WILL MAKE FOR
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BEGAN THE ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN QUARTER OF
THE STATE THIS MORNING AND ENDED IT THERE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
BEGAN THE ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
HAVE IT VALID UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN
WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING AND SNOW TAPERING TO FLURRIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INVOLVE PERIODIC CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
AS ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. ON WEDNESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH 1038MB SURFACE HIGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF STATE CLOSEST TO SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MONTANA. NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW SUPPORTED BY 120KT 300MB JET STREAK
NUDGING IN FROM MONTANA. SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH NEAR CANADIAN BORDER AND ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE I-94
CORRIDOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WARM POCKET ALOFT BEHIND
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP...SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBILITY OF MIX PRECIP TYPE DEVELOPING. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PULL ANOTHER SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE -25 TO
-30F RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SPREADING THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR WESTERN ND
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 251541
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
941 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

IR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW VORT MAX JUST NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON MOVING
SOUTHEAST AS RUC13 MODEL SHOWS. TRACK OF THIS VORT SHOULD DEFINE
THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND FOR THE REMAINING MORNING HOURS FROM
WILLISTON TO GARRISON AND NORTH. LIGHTER SNOW SOUTHWEST OF THIS
LINE. WILLISTON SHOWING ONE HALF MILE VSBY IN MODERATE SNOW AT 9
AM CST. SNOW RATES SHOULD BEGIN TO LIGHTEN NORTHWEST ND AS THE
VORT LOBE MOVES PAST LATE THIS AM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS AREA OF SNOW MOVING
INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH THE MOST RECENT BAKER OB REPORTING SNOW.
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS WESTERN ND LOCATIONS AND
MARMARTH ND DOT WEB CAM NOW SHOWS SNOWFALL OCCURRING. BOWMAN RADAR
ALSO SHOWS STRONGER ECHOES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. ONLY CHANGES WERE
TO BLEND FORECAST TO MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
SNOW TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
AT UPPER LEVELS A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WAS COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...THE
SURFACE LOW/CLIPPER WILL ALSO TRACK SOUTHEAST QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL CREATE A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE STATE...THE BEST LIFT/INSTABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. MEANWHILE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK (SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF ND) WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 30S
THERE TODAY. THUS THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX...WHILE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE FAR
WEST...BECOME MORE INTENSE WITH TIME AS THE FAVORED SNOW BANDS
APPROACH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CLOSER TO NOON...AND CONTINUE THIS
EVENING OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THUS EXPECTING 3-4 INCHES
OF SNOW IN AN ARC/LINE FROM CROSBY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...TO
STANLEY/MINOT/BOTTINEAU TO BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN AND LINTON/OAKES.
AROUND 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR MAINLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED BECAUSE
OF THE FAIRLY WET NATURE OF THE FALLING SNOW...DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS
ROADWAYS COMBINED WITH SNOW-COVERED AND ICY ROADS WILL MAKE FOR
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BEGAN THE ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN QUARTER OF
THE STATE THIS MORNING AND ENDED IT THERE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
BEGAN THE ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
HAVE IT VALID UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN
WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING AND SNOW TAPERING TO FLURRIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INVOLVE PERIODIC CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
AS ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. ON WEDNESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH 1038MB SURFACE HIGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF STATE CLOSEST TO SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MONTANA. NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW SUPPORTED BY 120KT 300MB JET STREAK
NUDGING IN FROM MONTANA. SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH NEAR CANADIAN BORDER AND ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE I-94
CORRIDOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WARM POCKET ALOFT BEHIND
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP...SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBILITY OF MIX PRECIP TYPE DEVELOPING. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PULL ANOTHER SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE -25 TO
-30F RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 928 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW AND
IFR CONDITIONS SPREADING THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 251541
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
941 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

IR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW VORT MAX JUST NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON MOVING
SOUTHEAST AS RUC13 MODEL SHOWS. TRACK OF THIS VORT SHOULD DEFINE
THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND FOR THE REMAINING MORNING HOURS FROM
WILLISTON TO GARRISON AND NORTH. LIGHTER SNOW SOUTHWEST OF THIS
LINE. WILLISTON SHOWING ONE HALF MILE VSBY IN MODERATE SNOW AT 9
AM CST. SNOW RATES SHOULD BEGIN TO LIGHTEN NORTHWEST ND AS THE
VORT LOBE MOVES PAST LATE THIS AM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS AREA OF SNOW MOVING
INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH THE MOST RECENT BAKER OB REPORTING SNOW.
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS WESTERN ND LOCATIONS AND
MARMARTH ND DOT WEB CAM NOW SHOWS SNOWFALL OCCURRING. BOWMAN RADAR
ALSO SHOWS STRONGER ECHOES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. ONLY CHANGES WERE
TO BLEND FORECAST TO MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
SNOW TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
AT UPPER LEVELS A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WAS COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...THE
SURFACE LOW/CLIPPER WILL ALSO TRACK SOUTHEAST QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL CREATE A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE STATE...THE BEST LIFT/INSTABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. MEANWHILE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK (SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF ND) WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 30S
THERE TODAY. THUS THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX...WHILE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE FAR
WEST...BECOME MORE INTENSE WITH TIME AS THE FAVORED SNOW BANDS
APPROACH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CLOSER TO NOON...AND CONTINUE THIS
EVENING OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THUS EXPECTING 3-4 INCHES
OF SNOW IN AN ARC/LINE FROM CROSBY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...TO
STANLEY/MINOT/BOTTINEAU TO BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN AND LINTON/OAKES.
AROUND 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR MAINLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED BECAUSE
OF THE FAIRLY WET NATURE OF THE FALLING SNOW...DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS
ROADWAYS COMBINED WITH SNOW-COVERED AND ICY ROADS WILL MAKE FOR
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BEGAN THE ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN QUARTER OF
THE STATE THIS MORNING AND ENDED IT THERE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
BEGAN THE ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
HAVE IT VALID UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN
WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING AND SNOW TAPERING TO FLURRIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INVOLVE PERIODIC CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
AS ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. ON WEDNESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH 1038MB SURFACE HIGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF STATE CLOSEST TO SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MONTANA. NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW SUPPORTED BY 120KT 300MB JET STREAK
NUDGING IN FROM MONTANA. SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH NEAR CANADIAN BORDER AND ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE I-94
CORRIDOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WARM POCKET ALOFT BEHIND
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP...SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBILITY OF MIX PRECIP TYPE DEVELOPING. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PULL ANOTHER SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE -25 TO
-30F RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 928 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW AND
IFR CONDITIONS SPREADING THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KBIS 251230
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS AREA OF SNOW MOVING
INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH THE MOST RECENT BAKER OB REPORTING SNOW.
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS WESTERN ND LOCATIONS AND
MARMARTH ND DOT WEB CAM NOW SHOWS SNOWFALL OCCURRING. BOWMAN RADAR
ALSO SHOWS STRONGER ECHOES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. ONLY CHANGES WERE
TO BLEND FORECAST TO MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
SNOW TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
AT UPPER LEVELS A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WAS COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...THE
SURFACE LOW/CLIPPER WILL ALSO TRACK SOUTHEAST QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL CREATE A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE STATE...THE BEST LIFT/INSTABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. MEANWHILE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK (SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF ND) WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 30S
THERE TODAY. THUS THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX...WHILE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE FAR
WEST...BECOME MORE INTENSE WITH TIME AS THE FAVORED SNOW BANDS
APPROACH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CLOSER TO NOON...AND CONTINUE THIS
EVENING OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THUS EXPECTING 3-4 INCHES
OF SNOW IN AN ARC/LINE FROM CROSBY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...TO
STANLEY/MINOT/BOTTINEAU TO BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN AND LINTON/OAKES.
AROUND 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR MAINLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED BECAUSE
OF THE FAIRLY WET NATURE OF THE FALLING SNOW...DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS
ROADWAYS COMBINED WITH SNOW-COVERED AND ICY ROADS WILL MAKE FOR
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BEGAN THE ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN QUARTER OF
THE STATE THIS MORNING AND ENDED IT THERE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
BEGAN THE ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
HAVE IT VALID UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN
WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING AND SNOW TAPERING TO FLURRIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INVOLVE PERIODIC CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
AS ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. ON WEDNESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH 1038MB SURFACE HIGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF STATE CLOSEST TO SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MONTANA. NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW SUPPORTED BY 120KT 300MB JET STREAK
NUDGING IN FROM MONTANA. SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH NEAR CANADIAN BORDER AND ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE I-94
CORRIDOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WARM POCKET ALOFT BEHIND
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP...SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBILITY OF MIX PRECIP TYPE DEVELOPING. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PULL ANOTHER SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE -25 TO
-30F RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR STRATUS OVER THE STATE WAS ENTRENCHED AT KJMS. THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE STRATUS DECK WAS NEAR/AT KMOT/KBIS TERMINALS. LATEST
MODELS INDICATE A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING OF CLEAR/SCATTERED CLOUDS
BUT HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AND MVFR AND IFR CIGS SHOULD ENTER KISN/KDIK
AROUND 14Z WITH MVFR VSBYS. THE SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
SPREADS EAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED.
WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KDIK AND KBIS WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 30
KNOTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 6 AM
CST /5 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-
034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 251230
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS AREA OF SNOW MOVING
INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH THE MOST RECENT BAKER OB REPORTING SNOW.
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS WESTERN ND LOCATIONS AND
MARMARTH ND DOT WEB CAM NOW SHOWS SNOWFALL OCCURRING. BOWMAN RADAR
ALSO SHOWS STRONGER ECHOES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. ONLY CHANGES WERE
TO BLEND FORECAST TO MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
SNOW TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
AT UPPER LEVELS A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WAS COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...THE
SURFACE LOW/CLIPPER WILL ALSO TRACK SOUTHEAST QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL CREATE A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE STATE...THE BEST LIFT/INSTABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. MEANWHILE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK (SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF ND) WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 30S
THERE TODAY. THUS THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX...WHILE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE FAR
WEST...BECOME MORE INTENSE WITH TIME AS THE FAVORED SNOW BANDS
APPROACH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CLOSER TO NOON...AND CONTINUE THIS
EVENING OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THUS EXPECTING 3-4 INCHES
OF SNOW IN AN ARC/LINE FROM CROSBY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...TO
STANLEY/MINOT/BOTTINEAU TO BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN AND LINTON/OAKES.
AROUND 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR MAINLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED BECAUSE
OF THE FAIRLY WET NATURE OF THE FALLING SNOW...DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS
ROADWAYS COMBINED WITH SNOW-COVERED AND ICY ROADS WILL MAKE FOR
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BEGAN THE ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN QUARTER OF
THE STATE THIS MORNING AND ENDED IT THERE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
BEGAN THE ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
HAVE IT VALID UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN
WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING AND SNOW TAPERING TO FLURRIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INVOLVE PERIODIC CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
AS ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. ON WEDNESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH 1038MB SURFACE HIGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF STATE CLOSEST TO SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MONTANA. NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW SUPPORTED BY 120KT 300MB JET STREAK
NUDGING IN FROM MONTANA. SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH NEAR CANADIAN BORDER AND ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE I-94
CORRIDOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WARM POCKET ALOFT BEHIND
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP...SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBILITY OF MIX PRECIP TYPE DEVELOPING. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PULL ANOTHER SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE -25 TO
-30F RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR STRATUS OVER THE STATE WAS ENTRENCHED AT KJMS. THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE STRATUS DECK WAS NEAR/AT KMOT/KBIS TERMINALS. LATEST
MODELS INDICATE A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING OF CLEAR/SCATTERED CLOUDS
BUT HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AND MVFR AND IFR CIGS SHOULD ENTER KISN/KDIK
AROUND 14Z WITH MVFR VSBYS. THE SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
SPREADS EAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED.
WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KDIK AND KBIS WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 30
KNOTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 6 AM
CST /5 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-
034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 250946
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
346 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
AT UPPER LEVELS A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WAS COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...THE
SURFACE LOW/CLIPPER WILL ALSO TRACK SOUTHEAST QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL CREATE A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE STATE...THE BEST LIFT/INSTABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. MEANWHILE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK (SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF ND) WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 30S
THERE TODAY. THUS THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX...WHILE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE FAR
WEST...BECOME MORE INTENSE WITH TIME AS THE FAVORED SNOW BANDS
APPROACH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CLOSER TO NOON...AND CONTINUE THIS
EVENING OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THUS EXPECTING 3-4 INCHES
OF SNOW IN AN ARC/LINE FROM CROSBY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...TO
STANLEY/MINOT/BOTTINEAU TO BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN AND LINTON/OAKES.
AROUND 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR MAINLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED BECAUSE
OF THE FAIRLY WET NATURE OF THE FALLING SNOW...DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS
ROADWAYS COMBINED WITH SNOW-COVERED AND ICY ROADS WILL MAKE FOR
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BEGAN THE ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN QUARTER OF
THE STATE THIS MORNING AND ENDED IT THERE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
BEGAN THE ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
HAVE IT VALID UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN
WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING AND SNOW TAPERING TO FLURRIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INVOLVE PERIODIC CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
AS ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. ON WEDNESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH 1038MB SURFACE HIGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF STATE CLOSEST TO SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MONTANA. NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW SUPPORTED BY 120KT 300MB JET STREAK
NUDGING IN FROM MONTANA. SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH NEAR CANADIAN BORDER AND ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE I-94
CORRIDOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WARM POCKET ALOFT BEHIND
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP...SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBILITY OF MIX PRECIP TYPE DEVELOPING. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PULL ANOTHER SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE -25 TO
-30F RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR STRATUS OVER THE STATE WAS ENTRENCHED AT KMOT/KBIS AND MOVING
INTO KJMS. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK WAS NEAR/AT
KISN/KDIK TERMINALS. LATEST MODELS INDICATE A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
OF CLEAR/SCATTERED CLOUDS BUT HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING AT KISN/KDIK. HOWEVER WITH TIME
KMOT AND KBIS HAVE A CHANCE TO SCATTER OUT CLOSER TO 12Z-15Z.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR AND IFR CIGS SHOULD
ENTER KISN/KDIK AROUND 12Z WITH MVFR VSBYS. THE SNOW AND MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS SPREADS EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 6 AM
CST /5 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-
034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JV










000
FXUS63 KBIS 250642
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1242 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS WAS OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
STATE. THIS DECK WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST...AND EXPECT SOME CLEARING OF
THE WESTERN EDGE WITH TIME THIS MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WERE REACHING THE WESTERN ND
BORDER. THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE WARM ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT FOG FORMATION IN THE WEST...BUT MAY SEE SOME FOG IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS SUNRISE. NOT CONFIDENT YET TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT. OTHERWISE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ASSOCIATED FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD BRING LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING IN
THE WEST AROUND 6 AM CST/5 AM MST...THEN SPREAD EAST. CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK IN THAT REGARD. MADE MINOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE
CHANGES AS TEMPERATURES HAD BEGUN TO RISE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE 00 UTC GFS HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE 18 UTC AND 00 UTC
NAM WITH STRONGER MESOSCALE BANDING OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL WAIT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE 00 UTC SUITE TO COME IN...HOWEVER...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOWFALL WITH A BAND OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL IS INCREASING IN
LIKELIHOOD OF BEING ISSUED AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
MONITOR THE WIND POTENTIAL WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANT
ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND 0-2 KM MEAN WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 731 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH WFO GRAND FORKS AND ABERDEEN...ADDED PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL...THROUGH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 06-12 UTC TONIGHT AS
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST.
THE 18 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -10
C.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
SNOW EVENT. DID INCREASE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE EVENT
INTO THE TWO TO FOUR INCH RANGE FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY BOUNDED
ALONG AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY 83 AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY
2. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH GOOD OMEGA IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THESE TOTALS ARE IN LINE WITH THE 15 UTC
SREF SNOWFALL PLUMES...18 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF. THE 18 UTC NAM
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER FOR NOW...WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES OFFERED FOR THE EVENT. WILL SEE IF THIS CONTINUES
WITH ITS UPCOMING 00 UTC RUN. ALSO...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELD ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE 18 UTC
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...WITH THE NAM MUCH STRONGER INTO ADVISORY
LEVEL CRITERIA. THIS IS LIKELY AN ARTIFACT OF ITS STRONGER MESOSCALE
FORCING AND PRECIPITATION GENERATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS TUESDAY. TONIGHT A
REGION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE A WEAK RIPPLE IN
THE H5 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS ACROSS A BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA PRODUCING FLURRIES/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW. SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE.
ON TUESDAY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL PLACE A RELATIVE WARM
SECTOR OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH FORECAST HIGHS THERE IN THE
MID 30S. THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS ARE 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO
JAMESTOWN. LESSER AMOUNTS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS LINE. FOR THIS
EVENT AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AND KEEP THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING H5 WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS...ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST CLOSER TO
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY....THEN SHIFTS ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS THEN SHIFT NORTH AND EAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE MODELS SOLUTIONS THAT SUGGEST
THERE COULD BE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ON THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
MOVES BACK INTO NORTH DAKOTA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH...SO
WILL NOT INTRODUCE YET.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AND WIND
CHILLS COULD APPROACH 25 BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.  WARMER AIR ARRIVES BY
FRIDAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR LOOMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS COULD AGAIN PUSH WIND CHILLS TO NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR STRATUS OVER THE STATE WAS ENTRENCHED AT KMOT/KBIS AND MOVING
INTO KJMS. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK WAS NEAR/AT
KISN/KDIK TERMINALS. LATEST MODELS INDICATE A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
OF CLEAR/SCATTERED CLOUDS BUT HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING AT KISN/KDIK. HOWEVER WITH TIME
KMOT AND KBIS HAVE A CHANCE TO SCATTER OUT CLOSER TO 12Z-15Z.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR AND IFR CIGS SHOULD
ENTER KISN/KDIK AROUND 12Z WITH MVFR VSBYS. THE SNOW AND MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS SPREADS EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 250642
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1242 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS WAS OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
STATE. THIS DECK WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST...AND EXPECT SOME CLEARING OF
THE WESTERN EDGE WITH TIME THIS MORNING. HIGHER CLOUDS FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WERE REACHING THE WESTERN ND
BORDER. THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE WARM ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT FOG FORMATION IN THE WEST...BUT MAY SEE SOME FOG IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS SUNRISE. NOT CONFIDENT YET TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT. OTHERWISE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ASSOCIATED FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD BRING LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING IN
THE WEST AROUND 6 AM CST/5 AM MST...THEN SPREAD EAST. CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK IN THAT REGARD. MADE MINOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE
CHANGES AS TEMPERATURES HAD BEGUN TO RISE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE 00 UTC GFS HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE 18 UTC AND 00 UTC
NAM WITH STRONGER MESOSCALE BANDING OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL WAIT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE 00 UTC SUITE TO COME IN...HOWEVER...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOWFALL WITH A BAND OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL IS INCREASING IN
LIKELIHOOD OF BEING ISSUED AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
MONITOR THE WIND POTENTIAL WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANT
ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND 0-2 KM MEAN WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 731 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH WFO GRAND FORKS AND ABERDEEN...ADDED PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL...THROUGH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 06-12 UTC TONIGHT AS
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST.
THE 18 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -10
C.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
SNOW EVENT. DID INCREASE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE EVENT
INTO THE TWO TO FOUR INCH RANGE FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY BOUNDED
ALONG AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY 83 AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY
2. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH GOOD OMEGA IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THESE TOTALS ARE IN LINE WITH THE 15 UTC
SREF SNOWFALL PLUMES...18 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF. THE 18 UTC NAM
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER FOR NOW...WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES OFFERED FOR THE EVENT. WILL SEE IF THIS CONTINUES
WITH ITS UPCOMING 00 UTC RUN. ALSO...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELD ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE 18 UTC
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...WITH THE NAM MUCH STRONGER INTO ADVISORY
LEVEL CRITERIA. THIS IS LIKELY AN ARTIFACT OF ITS STRONGER MESOSCALE
FORCING AND PRECIPITATION GENERATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS TUESDAY. TONIGHT A
REGION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE A WEAK RIPPLE IN
THE H5 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS ACROSS A BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA PRODUCING FLURRIES/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW. SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE.
ON TUESDAY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL PLACE A RELATIVE WARM
SECTOR OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH FORECAST HIGHS THERE IN THE
MID 30S. THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS ARE 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO
JAMESTOWN. LESSER AMOUNTS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS LINE. FOR THIS
EVENT AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AND KEEP THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING H5 WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS...ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST CLOSER TO
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY....THEN SHIFTS ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS THEN SHIFT NORTH AND EAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE MODELS SOLUTIONS THAT SUGGEST
THERE COULD BE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ON THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
MOVES BACK INTO NORTH DAKOTA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH...SO
WILL NOT INTRODUCE YET.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AND WIND
CHILLS COULD APPROACH 25 BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.  WARMER AIR ARRIVES BY
FRIDAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR LOOMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS COULD AGAIN PUSH WIND CHILLS TO NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR STRATUS OVER THE STATE WAS ENTRENCHED AT KMOT/KBIS AND MOVING
INTO KJMS. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK WAS NEAR/AT
KISN/KDIK TERMINALS. LATEST MODELS INDICATE A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
OF CLEAR/SCATTERED CLOUDS BUT HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING AT KISN/KDIK. HOWEVER WITH TIME
KMOT AND KBIS HAVE A CHANCE TO SCATTER OUT CLOSER TO 12Z-15Z.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR AND IFR CIGS SHOULD
ENTER KISN/KDIK AROUND 12Z WITH MVFR VSBYS. THE SNOW AND MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS SPREADS EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 250358
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
958 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE 00 UTC GFS HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE 18 UTC AND 00 UTC
NAM WITH STRONGER MESOSCALE BANDING OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL WAIT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE 00 UTC SUITE TO COME IN...HOWEVER...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOWFALL WITH A BAND OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL IS INCREASING IN
LIKELIHOOD OF BEING ISSUED AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
MONITOR THE WIND POTENTIAL WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANT
ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND 0-2 KM MEAN WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 731 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH WFO GRAND FORKS AND ABERDEEN...ADDED PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL...THROUGH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 06-12 UTC TONIGHT AS
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST.
THE 18 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -10
C.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
SNOW EVENT. DID INCREASE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE EVENT
INTO THE TWO TO FOUR INCH RANGE FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY BOUNDED
ALONG AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY 83 AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY
2. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH GOOD OMEGA IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THESE TOTALS ARE IN LINE WITH THE 15 UTC
SREF SNOWFALL PLUMES...18 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF. THE 18 UTC NAM
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER FOR NOW...WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES OFFERED FOR THE EVENT. WILL SEE IF THIS CONTINUES
WITH ITS UPCOMING 00 UTC RUN. ALSO...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELD ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE 18 UTC
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...WITH THE NAM MUCH STRONGER INTO ADVISORY
LEVEL CRITERIA. THIS IS LIKELY AN ARTIFACT OF ITS STRONGER MESOSCALE
FORCING AND PRECIPITATION GENERATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS TUESDAY. TONIGHT A
REGION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE A WEAK RIPPLE IN
THE H5 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS ACROSS A BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA PRODUCING FLURRIES/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW. SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE.
ON TUESDAY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL PLACE A RELATIVE WARM
SECTOR OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH FORECAST HIGHS THERE IN THE
MID 30S. THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS ARE 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO
JAMESTOWN. LESSER AMOUNTS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS LINE. FOR THIS
EVENT AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AND KEEP THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING H5 WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS...ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST CLOSER TO
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY....THEN SHIFTS ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS THEN SHIFT NORTH AND EAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE MODELS SOLUTIONS THAT SUGGEST
THERE COULD BE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ON THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
MOVES BACK INTO NORTH DAKOTA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH...SO
WILL NOT INTRODUCE YET.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AND WIND
CHILLS COULD APPROACH 25 BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.  WARMER AIR ARRIVES BY
FRIDAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR LOOMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS COULD AGAIN PUSH WIND CHILLS TO NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...TRENDING INTO IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH TUESDAY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KBIS AND KJMS LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 250358
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
958 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE 00 UTC GFS HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE 18 UTC AND 00 UTC
NAM WITH STRONGER MESOSCALE BANDING OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL WAIT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE 00 UTC SUITE TO COME IN...HOWEVER...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOWFALL WITH A BAND OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL IS INCREASING IN
LIKELIHOOD OF BEING ISSUED AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
MONITOR THE WIND POTENTIAL WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANT
ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND 0-2 KM MEAN WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 731 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH WFO GRAND FORKS AND ABERDEEN...ADDED PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL...THROUGH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 06-12 UTC TONIGHT AS
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST.
THE 18 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -10
C.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
SNOW EVENT. DID INCREASE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE EVENT
INTO THE TWO TO FOUR INCH RANGE FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY BOUNDED
ALONG AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY 83 AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY
2. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH GOOD OMEGA IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THESE TOTALS ARE IN LINE WITH THE 15 UTC
SREF SNOWFALL PLUMES...18 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF. THE 18 UTC NAM
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER FOR NOW...WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES OFFERED FOR THE EVENT. WILL SEE IF THIS CONTINUES
WITH ITS UPCOMING 00 UTC RUN. ALSO...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELD ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE 18 UTC
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...WITH THE NAM MUCH STRONGER INTO ADVISORY
LEVEL CRITERIA. THIS IS LIKELY AN ARTIFACT OF ITS STRONGER MESOSCALE
FORCING AND PRECIPITATION GENERATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS TUESDAY. TONIGHT A
REGION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE A WEAK RIPPLE IN
THE H5 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS ACROSS A BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA PRODUCING FLURRIES/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW. SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE.
ON TUESDAY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL PLACE A RELATIVE WARM
SECTOR OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH FORECAST HIGHS THERE IN THE
MID 30S. THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS ARE 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO
JAMESTOWN. LESSER AMOUNTS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS LINE. FOR THIS
EVENT AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AND KEEP THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING H5 WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS...ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST CLOSER TO
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY....THEN SHIFTS ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS THEN SHIFT NORTH AND EAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE MODELS SOLUTIONS THAT SUGGEST
THERE COULD BE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ON THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
MOVES BACK INTO NORTH DAKOTA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH...SO
WILL NOT INTRODUCE YET.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AND WIND
CHILLS COULD APPROACH 25 BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.  WARMER AIR ARRIVES BY
FRIDAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR LOOMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS COULD AGAIN PUSH WIND CHILLS TO NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...TRENDING INTO IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH TUESDAY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KBIS AND KJMS LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 250358
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
958 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE 00 UTC GFS HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE 18 UTC AND 00 UTC
NAM WITH STRONGER MESOSCALE BANDING OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL WAIT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE 00 UTC SUITE TO COME IN...HOWEVER...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOWFALL WITH A BAND OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL IS INCREASING IN
LIKELIHOOD OF BEING ISSUED AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
MONITOR THE WIND POTENTIAL WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANT
ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND 0-2 KM MEAN WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 731 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH WFO GRAND FORKS AND ABERDEEN...ADDED PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL...THROUGH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 06-12 UTC TONIGHT AS
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST.
THE 18 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -10
C.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
SNOW EVENT. DID INCREASE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE EVENT
INTO THE TWO TO FOUR INCH RANGE FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY BOUNDED
ALONG AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY 83 AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY
2. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH GOOD OMEGA IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THESE TOTALS ARE IN LINE WITH THE 15 UTC
SREF SNOWFALL PLUMES...18 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF. THE 18 UTC NAM
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER FOR NOW...WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES OFFERED FOR THE EVENT. WILL SEE IF THIS CONTINUES
WITH ITS UPCOMING 00 UTC RUN. ALSO...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELD ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE 18 UTC
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...WITH THE NAM MUCH STRONGER INTO ADVISORY
LEVEL CRITERIA. THIS IS LIKELY AN ARTIFACT OF ITS STRONGER MESOSCALE
FORCING AND PRECIPITATION GENERATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS TUESDAY. TONIGHT A
REGION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE A WEAK RIPPLE IN
THE H5 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS ACROSS A BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA PRODUCING FLURRIES/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW. SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE.
ON TUESDAY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL PLACE A RELATIVE WARM
SECTOR OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH FORECAST HIGHS THERE IN THE
MID 30S. THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS ARE 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO
JAMESTOWN. LESSER AMOUNTS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS LINE. FOR THIS
EVENT AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AND KEEP THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING H5 WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS...ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST CLOSER TO
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY....THEN SHIFTS ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS THEN SHIFT NORTH AND EAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE MODELS SOLUTIONS THAT SUGGEST
THERE COULD BE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ON THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
MOVES BACK INTO NORTH DAKOTA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH...SO
WILL NOT INTRODUCE YET.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AND WIND
CHILLS COULD APPROACH 25 BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.  WARMER AIR ARRIVES BY
FRIDAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR LOOMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS COULD AGAIN PUSH WIND CHILLS TO NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...TRENDING INTO IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH TUESDAY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KBIS AND KJMS LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 250358
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
958 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE 00 UTC GFS HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE 18 UTC AND 00 UTC
NAM WITH STRONGER MESOSCALE BANDING OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL WAIT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE 00 UTC SUITE TO COME IN...HOWEVER...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOWFALL WITH A BAND OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL IS INCREASING IN
LIKELIHOOD OF BEING ISSUED AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
MONITOR THE WIND POTENTIAL WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANT
ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND 0-2 KM MEAN WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 731 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH WFO GRAND FORKS AND ABERDEEN...ADDED PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL...THROUGH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 06-12 UTC TONIGHT AS
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST.
THE 18 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -10
C.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
SNOW EVENT. DID INCREASE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE EVENT
INTO THE TWO TO FOUR INCH RANGE FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY BOUNDED
ALONG AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY 83 AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY
2. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH GOOD OMEGA IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THESE TOTALS ARE IN LINE WITH THE 15 UTC
SREF SNOWFALL PLUMES...18 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF. THE 18 UTC NAM
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER FOR NOW...WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES OFFERED FOR THE EVENT. WILL SEE IF THIS CONTINUES
WITH ITS UPCOMING 00 UTC RUN. ALSO...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELD ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE 18 UTC
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...WITH THE NAM MUCH STRONGER INTO ADVISORY
LEVEL CRITERIA. THIS IS LIKELY AN ARTIFACT OF ITS STRONGER MESOSCALE
FORCING AND PRECIPITATION GENERATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS TUESDAY. TONIGHT A
REGION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE A WEAK RIPPLE IN
THE H5 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS ACROSS A BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA PRODUCING FLURRIES/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW. SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE.
ON TUESDAY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL PLACE A RELATIVE WARM
SECTOR OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH FORECAST HIGHS THERE IN THE
MID 30S. THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS ARE 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO
JAMESTOWN. LESSER AMOUNTS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS LINE. FOR THIS
EVENT AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AND KEEP THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING H5 WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS...ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST CLOSER TO
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY....THEN SHIFTS ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS THEN SHIFT NORTH AND EAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE MODELS SOLUTIONS THAT SUGGEST
THERE COULD BE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ON THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
MOVES BACK INTO NORTH DAKOTA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH...SO
WILL NOT INTRODUCE YET.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AND WIND
CHILLS COULD APPROACH 25 BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.  WARMER AIR ARRIVES BY
FRIDAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR LOOMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS COULD AGAIN PUSH WIND CHILLS TO NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...TRENDING INTO IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH TUESDAY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KBIS AND KJMS LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 250132
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
732 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 731 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH WFO GRAND FORKS AND ABERDEEN...ADDED PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL...THROUGH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 06-12 UTC TONIGHT AS
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST.
THE 18 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -10
C.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
SNOW EVENT. DID INCREASE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE EVENT
INTO THE TWO TO FOUR INCH RANGE FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY BOUNDED
ALONG AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY 83 AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY
2. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH GOOD OMEGA IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THESE TOTALS ARE IN LINE WITH THE 15 UTC
SREF SNOWFALL PLUMES...18 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF. THE 18 UTC NAM
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER FOR NOW...WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES OFFERED FOR THE EVENT. WILL SEE IF THIS CONTINUES
WITH ITS UPCOMING 00 UTC RUN. ALSO...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELD ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE 18 UTC
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...WITH THE NAM MUCH STRONGER INTO ADVISORY
LEVEL CRITERIA. THIS IS LIKELY AN ARTIFACT OF ITS STRONGER MESOSCALE
FORCING AND PRECIPITATION GENERATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS TUESDAY. TONIGHT A
REGION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE A WEAK RIPPLE IN
THE H5 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS ACROSS A BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA PRODUCING FLURRIES/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW. SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE.
ON TUESDAY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL PLACE A RELATIVE WARM
SECTOR OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH FORECAST HIGHS THERE IN THE
MID 30S. THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS ARE 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO
JAMESTOWN. LESSER AMOUNTS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS LINE. FOR THIS
EVENT AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AND KEEP THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING H5 WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS...ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST CLOSER TO
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY....THEN SHIFTS ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS THEN SHIFT NORTH AND EAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE MODELS SOLUTIONS THAT SUGGEST
THERE COULD BE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ON THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
MOVES BACK INTO NORTH DAKOTA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH...SO
WILL NOT INTRODUCE YET.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AND WIND
CHILLS COULD APPROACH 25 BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.  WARMER AIR ARRIVES BY
FRIDAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR LOOMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS COULD AGAIN PUSH WIND CHILLS TO NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...TRENDING INTO IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH TUESDAY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KBIS AND KJMS LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 250132
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
732 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 731 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH WFO GRAND FORKS AND ABERDEEN...ADDED PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL...THROUGH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 06-12 UTC TONIGHT AS
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST.
THE 18 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN WITH SATURATION WARMER THAN -10
C.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
SNOW EVENT. DID INCREASE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE EVENT
INTO THE TWO TO FOUR INCH RANGE FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY BOUNDED
ALONG AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY 83 AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY
2. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH GOOD OMEGA IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THESE TOTALS ARE IN LINE WITH THE 15 UTC
SREF SNOWFALL PLUMES...18 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF. THE 18 UTC NAM
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER FOR NOW...WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES OFFERED FOR THE EVENT. WILL SEE IF THIS CONTINUES
WITH ITS UPCOMING 00 UTC RUN. ALSO...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELD ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE 18 UTC
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...WITH THE NAM MUCH STRONGER INTO ADVISORY
LEVEL CRITERIA. THIS IS LIKELY AN ARTIFACT OF ITS STRONGER MESOSCALE
FORCING AND PRECIPITATION GENERATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS TUESDAY. TONIGHT A
REGION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE A WEAK RIPPLE IN
THE H5 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS ACROSS A BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA PRODUCING FLURRIES/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW. SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE.
ON TUESDAY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL PLACE A RELATIVE WARM
SECTOR OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH FORECAST HIGHS THERE IN THE
MID 30S. THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS ARE 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO
JAMESTOWN. LESSER AMOUNTS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS LINE. FOR THIS
EVENT AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AND KEEP THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING H5 WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS...ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST CLOSER TO
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY....THEN SHIFTS ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS THEN SHIFT NORTH AND EAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE MODELS SOLUTIONS THAT SUGGEST
THERE COULD BE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ON THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
MOVES BACK INTO NORTH DAKOTA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH...SO
WILL NOT INTRODUCE YET.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AND WIND
CHILLS COULD APPROACH 25 BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.  WARMER AIR ARRIVES BY
FRIDAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR LOOMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS COULD AGAIN PUSH WIND CHILLS TO NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...TRENDING INTO IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH TUESDAY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KBIS AND KJMS LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 242355
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
555 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
SNOW EVENT. DID INCREASE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE EVENT
INTO THE TWO TO FOUR INCH RANGE FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY BOUNDED
ALONG AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY 83 AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY
2. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH GOOD OMEGA IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THESE TOTALS ARE IN LINE WITH THE 15 UTC
SREF SNOWFALL PLUMES...18 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF. THE 18 UTC NAM
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER FOR NOW...WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES OFFERED FOR THE EVENT. WILL SEE IF THIS CONTINUES
WITH ITS UPCOMING 00 UTC RUN. ALSO...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELD ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE 18 UTC
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...WITH THE NAM MUCH STRONGER INTO ADVISORY
LEVEL CRITERIA. THIS IS LIKELY AN ARTIFACT OF ITS STRONGER MESOSCALE
FORCING AND PRECIPITATION GENERATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS TUESDAY. TONIGHT A
REGION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE A WEAK RIPPLE IN
THE H5 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS ACROSS A BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA PRODUCING FLURRIES/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW. SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE.
ON TUESDAY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL PLACE A RELATIVE WARM
SECTOR OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH FORECAST HIGHS THERE IN THE
MID 30S. THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS ARE 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO
JAMESTOWN. LESSER AMOUNTS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS LINE. FOR THIS
EVENT AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AND KEEP THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING H5 WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS...ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST CLOSER TO
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY....THEN SHIFTS ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS THEN SHIFT NORTH AND EAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE MODELS SOLUTIONS THAT SUGGEST
THERE COULD BE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ON THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
MOVES BACK INTO NORTH DAKOTA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH...SO
WILL NOT INTRODUCE YET.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AND WIND
CHILLS COULD APPROACH 25 BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.  WARMER AIR ARRIVES BY
FRIDAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR LOOMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS COULD AGAIN PUSH WIND CHILLS TO NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...TRENDING INTO IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH TUESDAY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 242355
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
555 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
SNOW EVENT. DID INCREASE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE EVENT
INTO THE TWO TO FOUR INCH RANGE FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY BOUNDED
ALONG AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY 83 AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY
2. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH GOOD OMEGA IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THESE TOTALS ARE IN LINE WITH THE 15 UTC
SREF SNOWFALL PLUMES...18 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF. THE 18 UTC NAM
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER FOR NOW...WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES OFFERED FOR THE EVENT. WILL SEE IF THIS CONTINUES
WITH ITS UPCOMING 00 UTC RUN. ALSO...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELD ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE 18 UTC
GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...WITH THE NAM MUCH STRONGER INTO ADVISORY
LEVEL CRITERIA. THIS IS LIKELY AN ARTIFACT OF ITS STRONGER MESOSCALE
FORCING AND PRECIPITATION GENERATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS TUESDAY. TONIGHT A
REGION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE A WEAK RIPPLE IN
THE H5 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS ACROSS A BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA PRODUCING FLURRIES/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW. SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE.
ON TUESDAY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL PLACE A RELATIVE WARM
SECTOR OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH FORECAST HIGHS THERE IN THE
MID 30S. THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS ARE 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO
JAMESTOWN. LESSER AMOUNTS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS LINE. FOR THIS
EVENT AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AND KEEP THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING H5 WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS...ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST CLOSER TO
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY....THEN SHIFTS ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS THEN SHIFT NORTH AND EAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE MODELS SOLUTIONS THAT SUGGEST
THERE COULD BE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ON THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
MOVES BACK INTO NORTH DAKOTA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH...SO
WILL NOT INTRODUCE YET.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AND WIND
CHILLS COULD APPROACH 25 BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.  WARMER AIR ARRIVES BY
FRIDAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR LOOMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS COULD AGAIN PUSH WIND CHILLS TO NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...TRENDING INTO IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH TUESDAY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 242109
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
309 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS TUESDAY. TONIGHT A
REGION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE A WEAK RIPPLE IN
THE H5 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS ACROSS A BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA PRODUCING FLURRIES/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW. SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE.
ON TUESDAY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL PLACE A RELATIVE WARM
SECTOR OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH FORECAST HIGHS THERE IN THE
MID 30S. THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS ARE 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO
JAMESTOWN. LESSER AMOUNTS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS LINE. FOR THIS
EVENT AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AND KEEP THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING H5 WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS...ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST CLOSER TO
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY....THEN SHIFTS ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS THEN SHIFT NORTH AND EAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE MODELS SOLUTIONS THAT SUGGEST
THERE COULD BE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ON THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
MOVES BACK INTO NORTH DAKOTA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH...SO
WILL NOT INTRODUCE YET.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AND WIND
CHILLS COULD APPROACH 25 BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.  WARMER AIR ARRIVES BY
FRIDAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR LOOMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS COULD AGAIN PUSH WIND CHILLS TO NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

SURFACE STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL
SUPPORTING CLOUDS AND FLURRIES AS RELATIVELY WARMER AIR MOVES
OVER THE COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. VFR WILL PREDOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WEST AND NORTH
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MONTANA AND MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL BRING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR IN SNOW BY LATE
MORNING WEST SPREADING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KBIS 242109
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
309 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS TUESDAY. TONIGHT A
REGION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE A WEAK RIPPLE IN
THE H5 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS ACROSS A BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA PRODUCING FLURRIES/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW. SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE.
ON TUESDAY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL PLACE A RELATIVE WARM
SECTOR OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH FORECAST HIGHS THERE IN THE
MID 30S. THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS ARE 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO
JAMESTOWN. LESSER AMOUNTS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS LINE. FOR THIS
EVENT AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AND KEEP THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING H5 WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING.  LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

ONCE THIS WAVE EXITS...ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST CLOSER TO
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY....THEN SHIFTS ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE WEST /
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS THEN SHIFT NORTH AND EAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE MODELS SOLUTIONS THAT SUGGEST
THERE COULD BE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ON THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
MOVES BACK INTO NORTH DAKOTA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH...SO
WILL NOT INTRODUCE YET.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AND WIND
CHILLS COULD APPROACH 25 BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.  WARMER AIR ARRIVES BY
FRIDAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR LOOMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS COULD AGAIN PUSH WIND CHILLS TO NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

SURFACE STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL
SUPPORTING CLOUDS AND FLURRIES AS RELATIVELY WARMER AIR MOVES
OVER THE COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. VFR WILL PREDOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY MVFR
CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW WEST AND NORTH
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MONTANA AND MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL BRING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR IN SNOW BY LATE
MORNING WEST SPREADING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...WAA










000
FXUS63 KBIS 241853
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1253 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWING UP NORTHWEST AS CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS
THE WEST THIRD OF THE STATE. WILL REFINE FLURRIES AND CHC LIGHT
SNOW WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS
LEADING AREA OF SNOW/FLURRIES TONIGHT. BETTER SHORTWAVE AND
DYNAMICS FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS TUESDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

EXITING SURFACE LOW AND ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES
OF CANADA COMBINING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW WIND CHILLS NEAR
20 BELOW NORTHEAST. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF A WEAK RIPPLE
IN THE H500 FLOW THAT IS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FORECAST
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THE RIPPLE MAY PRODUCE A BIT OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE NEW 12Z NAM
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS THINKING. FOR TODAY...WILL KEEP SKIES
SUNNY CENTRAL AND EAST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SNOW NORTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS REMAIN AROUND BISMARCK AND
JAMESTOWN. ADDITIONAL MVFR CLOUDINESS IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE
WEST. WILL ADJUST SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
POPULATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENTLY...THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS ON SUNDAY WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
WAS OVER MANITOBA AND CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 5 ABOVE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
AS THE ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE STATE.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BRUSH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WILL APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ONLY
INTO THE TEENS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT RISE INTO THE 20S
WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LOOK FOR LOWS FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. THE 24 NOV 00 UTC
NAM IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH A WESTERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GFS. THE ECMWF COMPARED TO THE 23
NOV 00 UTC RUN IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...AND THE GEM REMAINS
FARTHEST EAST. UTILIZED A BLEND FOR NOW. MODELS ARE NOT BAD WITH QPF
AMOUNTS AND AN AREA OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA SEEM REASONABLE.
GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
AGREEMENT. WHERE THE BAND OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES...AND
MAYBE UP TO 4 INCHES ENDS UP REMAINS TO BE SEEN. FOR NOW WE HAVE A
BROAD AREA OF ROUGHLY 2-3 INCHES NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA
AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GEM...WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. COULD STILL SEE AN
ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASED TRAFFIC AS WE APPROACH THE
HOLIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MOSTLY SUB ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS...LESS
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WILL HOLD WITH A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALOFT...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD HAS CLOSED
FORM PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CONFINE HIGHER POPS TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...EVEN MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MAYBE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS. WILL SEE IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THIS SOLUTION. ANY IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG.

MODELS ACTUALLY CONVERGE A BIT ON THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AND
LIFT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND EAST AS A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. THIS BRINGS A BAND OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THANKSGIVING NIGHT...INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS DIVERGE ONCE
AGAIN AS THE COLD AIR DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE COLD AIR SOUTH. THE
DIFFERENCE IS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ON FRIDAY...AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE POLAR JET
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BUT BY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE COLD AIR SHOULD BE IN CONTROL WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE IF
THIS HOLDS. PLEASE STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO THIS BUSY TRAVEL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA SUPPORTING SOME BANDS OF LOW
STRATUS/FLURRIES AS RELATIVELY WARMER AIR MOVES OVER THE COLD DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IMPACTING KISN
WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREDOMINATE
THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW AFTER 06Z KDIK- KMOT AND AFTER 10Z KBIS- KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 241557
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
957 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

EXITING SURFACE LOW AND ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES
OF CANADA COMBINING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW WIND CHILLS NEAR
20 BELOW NORTHEAST. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF A WEAK RIPPLE
IN THE H500 FLOW THAT IS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FORECAST
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THE RIPPLE MAY PRODUCE A BIT OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE NEW 12Z NAM
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS THINKING. FOR TODAY...WILL KEEP SKIES
SUNNY CENTRAL AND EAST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SNOW NORTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS REMAIN AROUND BISMARCK AND
JAMESTOWN. ADDITIONAL MVFR CLOUDINESS IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE
WEST. WILL ADJUST SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
POPULATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENTLY...THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS ON SUNDAY WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
WAS OVER MANITOBA AND CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 5 ABOVE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
AS THE ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE STATE.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BRUSH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WILL APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ONLY
INTO THE TEENS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT RISE INTO THE 20S
WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LOOK FOR LOWS FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. THE 24 NOV 00 UTC
NAM IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH A WESTERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GFS. THE ECMWF COMPARED TO THE 23
NOV 00 UTC RUN IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...AND THE GEM REMAINS
FARTHEST EAST. UTILIZED A BLEND FOR NOW. MODELS ARE NOT BAD WITH QPF
AMOUNTS AND AN AREA OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA SEEM REASONABLE.
GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
AGREEMENT. WHERE THE BAND OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES...AND
MAYBE UP TO 4 INCHES ENDS UP REMAINS TO BE SEEN. FOR NOW WE HAVE A
BROAD AREA OF ROUGHLY 2-3 INCHES NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA
AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GEM...WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. COULD STILL SEE AN
ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASED TRAFFIC AS WE APPROACH THE
HOLIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MOSTLY SUB ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS...LESS
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WILL HOLD WITH A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALOFT...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD HAS CLOSED
FORM PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CONFINE HIGHER POPS TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...EVEN MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MAYBE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS. WILL SEE IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THIS SOLUTION. ANY IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG.

MODELS ACTUALLY CONVERGE A BIT ON THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AND
LIFT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND EAST AS A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. THIS BRINGS A BAND OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THANKSGIVING NIGHT...INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS DIVERGE ONCE
AGAIN AS THE COLD AIR DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE COLD AIR SOUTH. THE
DIFFERENCE IS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ON FRIDAY...AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE POLAR JET
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BUT BY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE COLD AIR SHOULD BE IN CONTROL WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE IF
THIS HOLDS. PLEASE STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO THIS BUSY TRAVEL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 934 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA SUPPORTING SOME BANDS OF LOW
STRATUS AS RELATIVELY WARMER AIR MOVES OVER THE COLD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW LONG THE STRATUS WILL LAST...BUT IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING KISN
WITH IFR CEILINGS. EXPECT AS MID CLOUDS MOVE EAST TODAY THE
STRATUS DECK MAY DISSIPATE BY NOON. OTHERWISE FEEL VFR WILL
PREDOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AFTER 00Z KISN-KDIK-KMOT AND AFTER 06Z
KBIS-KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 241557
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
957 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

EXITING SURFACE LOW AND ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES
OF CANADA COMBINING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW WIND CHILLS NEAR
20 BELOW NORTHEAST. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF A WEAK RIPPLE
IN THE H500 FLOW THAT IS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FORECAST
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THE RIPPLE MAY PRODUCE A BIT OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE NEW 12Z NAM
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS THINKING. FOR TODAY...WILL KEEP SKIES
SUNNY CENTRAL AND EAST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SNOW NORTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS REMAIN AROUND BISMARCK AND
JAMESTOWN. ADDITIONAL MVFR CLOUDINESS IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE
WEST. WILL ADJUST SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
POPULATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENTLY...THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS ON SUNDAY WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
WAS OVER MANITOBA AND CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 5 ABOVE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
AS THE ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE STATE.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BRUSH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WILL APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ONLY
INTO THE TEENS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT RISE INTO THE 20S
WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LOOK FOR LOWS FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. THE 24 NOV 00 UTC
NAM IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH A WESTERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GFS. THE ECMWF COMPARED TO THE 23
NOV 00 UTC RUN IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...AND THE GEM REMAINS
FARTHEST EAST. UTILIZED A BLEND FOR NOW. MODELS ARE NOT BAD WITH QPF
AMOUNTS AND AN AREA OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA SEEM REASONABLE.
GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
AGREEMENT. WHERE THE BAND OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES...AND
MAYBE UP TO 4 INCHES ENDS UP REMAINS TO BE SEEN. FOR NOW WE HAVE A
BROAD AREA OF ROUGHLY 2-3 INCHES NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA
AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GEM...WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. COULD STILL SEE AN
ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASED TRAFFIC AS WE APPROACH THE
HOLIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MOSTLY SUB ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS...LESS
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WILL HOLD WITH A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALOFT...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD HAS CLOSED
FORM PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CONFINE HIGHER POPS TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...EVEN MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MAYBE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS. WILL SEE IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THIS SOLUTION. ANY IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG.

MODELS ACTUALLY CONVERGE A BIT ON THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AND
LIFT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND EAST AS A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. THIS BRINGS A BAND OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THANKSGIVING NIGHT...INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS DIVERGE ONCE
AGAIN AS THE COLD AIR DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE COLD AIR SOUTH. THE
DIFFERENCE IS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ON FRIDAY...AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE POLAR JET
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BUT BY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE COLD AIR SHOULD BE IN CONTROL WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE IF
THIS HOLDS. PLEASE STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO THIS BUSY TRAVEL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 934 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA SUPPORTING SOME BANDS OF LOW
STRATUS AS RELATIVELY WARMER AIR MOVES OVER THE COLD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW LONG THE STRATUS WILL LAST...BUT IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING KISN
WITH IFR CEILINGS. EXPECT AS MID CLOUDS MOVE EAST TODAY THE
STRATUS DECK MAY DISSIPATE BY NOON. OTHERWISE FEEL VFR WILL
PREDOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AFTER 00Z KISN-KDIK-KMOT AND AFTER 06Z
KBIS-KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 241257
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
657 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS REMAIN AROUND BISMARCK AND
JAMESTOWN. ADDITIONAL MVFR CLOUDINESS IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE
WEST. WILL ADJUST SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
POPULATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENTLY...THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS ON SUNDAY WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
WAS OVER MANITOBA AND CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 5 ABOVE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
AS THE ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE STATE.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BRUSH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WILL APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ONLY
INTO THE TEENS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT RISE INTO THE 20S
WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LOOK FOR LOWS FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. THE 24 NOV 00 UTC
NAM IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH A WESTERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GFS. THE ECMWF COMPARED TO THE 23
NOV 00 UTC RUN IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...AND THE GEM REMAINS
FARTHEST EAST. UTILIZED A BLEND FOR NOW. MODELS ARE NOT BAD WITH QPF
AMOUNTS AND AN AREA OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA SEEM REASONABLE.
GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
AGREEMENT. WHERE THE BAND OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES...AND
MAYBE UP TO 4 INCHES ENDS UP REMAINS TO BE SEEN. FOR NOW WE HAVE A
BROAD AREA OF ROUGHLY 2-3 INCHES NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA
AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GEM...WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. COULD STILL SEE AN
ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASED TRAFFIC AS WE APPROACH THE
HOLIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MOSTLY SUB ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS...LESS
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WILL HOLD WITH A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALOFT...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD HAS CLOSED
FORM PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CONFINE HIGHER POPS TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...EVEN MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MAYBE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS. WILL SEE IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THIS SOLUTION. ANY IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG.

MODELS ACTUALLY CONVERGE A BIT ON THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AND
LIFT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND EAST AS A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. THIS BRINGS A BAND OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THANKSGIVING NIGHT...INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS DIVERGE ONCE
AGAIN AS THE COLD AIR DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE COLD AIR SOUTH. THE
DIFFERENCE IS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ON FRIDAY...AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE POLAR JET
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BUT BY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE COLD AIR SHOULD BE IN CONTROL WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE IF
THIS HOLDS. PLEASE STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO THIS BUSY TRAVEL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT KJMS UNTIL AROUND 14Z.
AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS...THERE WERE SOME BANDS OF MVFR CIGS LINGERING
THIS MORNING. EXPECT OCNL MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOMING MORE SCT IN NATURE. OTHERWISE A BAND OF MID CLOUDS WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA AND WILL BE SCT-BKN
OVER TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CIGS
WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO NW ND AFT 00Z AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF
SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE AT KJMS TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 241257
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
657 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS REMAIN AROUND BISMARCK AND
JAMESTOWN. ADDITIONAL MVFR CLOUDINESS IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE
WEST. WILL ADJUST SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
POPULATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENTLY...THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS ON SUNDAY WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
WAS OVER MANITOBA AND CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 5 ABOVE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
AS THE ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE STATE.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BRUSH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WILL APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ONLY
INTO THE TEENS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT RISE INTO THE 20S
WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LOOK FOR LOWS FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. THE 24 NOV 00 UTC
NAM IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH A WESTERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GFS. THE ECMWF COMPARED TO THE 23
NOV 00 UTC RUN IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...AND THE GEM REMAINS
FARTHEST EAST. UTILIZED A BLEND FOR NOW. MODELS ARE NOT BAD WITH QPF
AMOUNTS AND AN AREA OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA SEEM REASONABLE.
GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
AGREEMENT. WHERE THE BAND OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES...AND
MAYBE UP TO 4 INCHES ENDS UP REMAINS TO BE SEEN. FOR NOW WE HAVE A
BROAD AREA OF ROUGHLY 2-3 INCHES NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA
AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GEM...WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. COULD STILL SEE AN
ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASED TRAFFIC AS WE APPROACH THE
HOLIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MOSTLY SUB ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS...LESS
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WILL HOLD WITH A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALOFT...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD HAS CLOSED
FORM PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CONFINE HIGHER POPS TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...EVEN MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MAYBE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS. WILL SEE IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THIS SOLUTION. ANY IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG.

MODELS ACTUALLY CONVERGE A BIT ON THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AND
LIFT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND EAST AS A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. THIS BRINGS A BAND OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THANKSGIVING NIGHT...INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS DIVERGE ONCE
AGAIN AS THE COLD AIR DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE COLD AIR SOUTH. THE
DIFFERENCE IS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ON FRIDAY...AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE POLAR JET
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BUT BY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE COLD AIR SHOULD BE IN CONTROL WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE IF
THIS HOLDS. PLEASE STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO THIS BUSY TRAVEL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT KJMS UNTIL AROUND 14Z.
AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS...THERE WERE SOME BANDS OF MVFR CIGS LINGERING
THIS MORNING. EXPECT OCNL MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOMING MORE SCT IN NATURE. OTHERWISE A BAND OF MID CLOUDS WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA AND WILL BE SCT-BKN
OVER TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CIGS
WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO NW ND AFT 00Z AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF
SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE AT KJMS TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 240938
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENTLY...THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS ON SUNDAY WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
WAS OVER MANITOBA AND CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 5 ABOVE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
AS THE ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE STATE.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BRUSH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WILL APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ONLY
INTO THE TEENS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT RISE INTO THE 20S
WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LOOK FOR LOWS FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. THE 24 NOV 00 UTC
NAM IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH A WESTERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GFS. THE ECMWF COMPARED TO THE 23
NOV 00 UTC RUN IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...AND THE GEM REMAINS
FARTHEST EAST. UTILIZED A BLEND FOR NOW. MODELS ARE NOT BAD WITH QPF
AMOUNTS AND AN AREA OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA SEEM REASONABLE.
GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
AGREEMENT. WHERE THE BAND OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES...AND
MAYBE UP TO 4 INCHES ENDS UP REMAINS TO BE SEEN. FOR NOW WE HAVE A
BROAD AREA OF ROUGHLY 2-3 INCHES NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA
AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GEM...WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. COULD STILL SEE AN
ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASED TRAFFIC AS WE APPROACH THE
HOLIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MOSTLY SUB ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS...LESS
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WILL HOLD WITH A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALOFT...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD HAS CLOSED
FORM PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CONFINE HIGHER POPS TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...EVEN MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MAYBE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS. WILL SEE IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THIS SOLUTION. ANY IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG.

MODELS ACTUALLY CONVERGE A BIT ON THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AND
LIFT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND EAST AS A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. THIS BRINGS A BAND OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THANKSGIVING NIGHT...INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS DIVERGE ONCE
AGAIN AS THE COLD AIR DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE COLD AIR SOUTH. THE
DIFFERENCE IS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ON FRIDAY...AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE POLAR JET
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BUT BY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE COLD AIR SHOULD BE IN CONTROL WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE IF
THIS HOLDS. PLEASE STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO THIS BUSY TRAVEL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO IFR WILL IMPACT KMOT THROUGH AROUND 09Z...KBIS
THROUGH AROUND 11Z...AND KJMS AROUND 15Z-18Z. SOME LINGERING MVFR
CIGS IN FAR WESTERN ND AND KEPT A MENTION OF SCT-BKN015 AT
KISN/KDIK. OTHERWISE A BAND OF MID CLOUDS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL BE SCT-BKN OVER TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CIGS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO NW ND AFT 00Z
AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV










000
FXUS63 KBIS 240938
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENTLY...THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS ON SUNDAY WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
WAS OVER MANITOBA AND CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 5 ABOVE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
AS THE ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE STATE.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BRUSH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WILL APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ONLY
INTO THE TEENS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT RISE INTO THE 20S
WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LOOK FOR LOWS FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. THE 24 NOV 00 UTC
NAM IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH A WESTERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GFS. THE ECMWF COMPARED TO THE 23
NOV 00 UTC RUN IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...AND THE GEM REMAINS
FARTHEST EAST. UTILIZED A BLEND FOR NOW. MODELS ARE NOT BAD WITH QPF
AMOUNTS AND AN AREA OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA SEEM REASONABLE.
GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
AGREEMENT. WHERE THE BAND OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES...AND
MAYBE UP TO 4 INCHES ENDS UP REMAINS TO BE SEEN. FOR NOW WE HAVE A
BROAD AREA OF ROUGHLY 2-3 INCHES NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA
AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GEM...WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. COULD STILL SEE AN
ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASED TRAFFIC AS WE APPROACH THE
HOLIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MOSTLY SUB ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS...LESS
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WILL HOLD WITH A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALOFT...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD HAS CLOSED
FORM PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CONFINE HIGHER POPS TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...EVEN MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MAYBE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS. WILL SEE IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THIS SOLUTION. ANY IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG.

MODELS ACTUALLY CONVERGE A BIT ON THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AND
LIFT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND EAST AS A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. THIS BRINGS A BAND OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THANKSGIVING NIGHT...INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS DIVERGE ONCE
AGAIN AS THE COLD AIR DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE COLD AIR SOUTH. THE
DIFFERENCE IS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ON FRIDAY...AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE POLAR JET
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BUT BY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE COLD AIR SHOULD BE IN CONTROL WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE IF
THIS HOLDS. PLEASE STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO THIS BUSY TRAVEL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO IFR WILL IMPACT KMOT THROUGH AROUND 09Z...KBIS
THROUGH AROUND 11Z...AND KJMS AROUND 15Z-18Z. SOME LINGERING MVFR
CIGS IN FAR WESTERN ND AND KEPT A MENTION OF SCT-BKN015 AT
KISN/KDIK. OTHERWISE A BAND OF MID CLOUDS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL BE SCT-BKN OVER TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CIGS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO NW ND AFT 00Z
AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV









000
FXUS63 KBIS 240638
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WINDS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY CHANGE
WAS IN HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AND MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING THE JAMES VALLEY TO HAVE FLURRIES FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS WITH CLOUDS REMAINING FOR MOST/ALL OF THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE AS
ALL STATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HAVEN FALLEN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...LOCALIZED BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 06 UTC SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND KEPT IT GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE ADVISORY MAY BE
ALLOWED TO BE DROPPED BY 03 UTC...AS NEARLY ALL STATIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD IN GUSTS. ALSO...DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IN A HIGH POP...LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO IFR WILL IMPACT KMOT THROUGH AROUND 09Z...KBIS
THROUGH AROUND 11Z...AND KJMS AROUND 15Z-18Z. SOME LINGERING MVFR
CIGS IN FAR WESTERN ND AND KEPT A MENTION OF SCT-BKN015 AT
KISN/KDIK. OTHERWISE A BAND OF MID CLOUDS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL BE SCT-BKN OVER TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CIGS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO NW ND AFT 00Z
AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 240638
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WINDS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY CHANGE
WAS IN HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AND MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING THE JAMES VALLEY TO HAVE FLURRIES FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS WITH CLOUDS REMAINING FOR MOST/ALL OF THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE AS
ALL STATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HAVEN FALLEN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...LOCALIZED BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 06 UTC SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND KEPT IT GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE ADVISORY MAY BE
ALLOWED TO BE DROPPED BY 03 UTC...AS NEARLY ALL STATIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD IN GUSTS. ALSO...DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IN A HIGH POP...LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO IFR WILL IMPACT KMOT THROUGH AROUND 09Z...KBIS
THROUGH AROUND 11Z...AND KJMS AROUND 15Z-18Z. SOME LINGERING MVFR
CIGS IN FAR WESTERN ND AND KEPT A MENTION OF SCT-BKN015 AT
KISN/KDIK. OTHERWISE A BAND OF MID CLOUDS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL BE SCT-BKN OVER TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CIGS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO NW ND AFT 00Z
AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 240342
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE AS
ALL STATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HAVEN FALLEN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...LOCALIZED BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 06 UTC SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND KEPT IT GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE ADVISORY MAY BE
ALLOWED TO BE DROPPED BY 03 UTC...AS NEARLY ALL STATIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD IN GUSTS. ALSO...DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IN A HIGH POP...LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO IFR WILL IMPACT KMOT THROUGH 05 UTC...KBIS THROUGH
12-14 UTC AND KJMS INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KISN AND KDIK. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 240342
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE AS
ALL STATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HAVEN FALLEN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...LOCALIZED BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 06 UTC SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND KEPT IT GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE ADVISORY MAY BE
ALLOWED TO BE DROPPED BY 03 UTC...AS NEARLY ALL STATIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD IN GUSTS. ALSO...DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IN A HIGH POP...LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO IFR WILL IMPACT KMOT THROUGH 05 UTC...KBIS THROUGH
12-14 UTC AND KJMS INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KISN AND KDIK. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 240342
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE AS
ALL STATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HAVEN FALLEN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...LOCALIZED BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 06 UTC SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND KEPT IT GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE ADVISORY MAY BE
ALLOWED TO BE DROPPED BY 03 UTC...AS NEARLY ALL STATIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD IN GUSTS. ALSO...DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IN A HIGH POP...LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO IFR WILL IMPACT KMOT THROUGH 05 UTC...KBIS THROUGH
12-14 UTC AND KJMS INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KISN AND KDIK. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 240342
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE AS
ALL STATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HAVEN FALLEN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...LOCALIZED BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 06 UTC SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND KEPT IT GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE ADVISORY MAY BE
ALLOWED TO BE DROPPED BY 03 UTC...AS NEARLY ALL STATIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD IN GUSTS. ALSO...DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IN A HIGH POP...LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO IFR WILL IMPACT KMOT THROUGH 05 UTC...KBIS THROUGH
12-14 UTC AND KJMS INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KISN AND KDIK. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 240041
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND KEPT IT GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE ADVISORY MAY BE
ALLOWED TO BE DROPPED BY 03 UTC...AS NEARLY ALL STATIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD IN GUSTS. ALSO...DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IN A HIGH POP...LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW...WITH EMBEDDED OCCASIONAL
IFR VISIBILITIES AS OF 00 UTC THIS EVENING...WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
AT KISN AND KDIK. HOWEVER...KBIS/KJMS/KMOT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IMPACTED BY THE STRATUS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ019>023-033>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 240041
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND KEPT IT GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE ADVISORY MAY BE
ALLOWED TO BE DROPPED BY 03 UTC...AS NEARLY ALL STATIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD IN GUSTS. ALSO...DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IN A HIGH POP...LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW...WITH EMBEDDED OCCASIONAL
IFR VISIBILITIES AS OF 00 UTC THIS EVENING...WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
AT KISN AND KDIK. HOWEVER...KBIS/KJMS/KMOT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IMPACTED BY THE STRATUS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ019>023-033>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 232200
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MVFR
IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT ALL BUT JAMES RIVER VALLEY. KJMS IMPVG
TO VFR AFTER 14Z. WINDS AND SNOW DIMINISHING AND ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-033>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KBIS 232200
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MVFR
IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT ALL BUT JAMES RIVER VALLEY. KJMS IMPVG
TO VFR AFTER 14Z. WINDS AND SNOW DIMINISHING AND ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-033>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA










000
FXUS63 KBIS 232200
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MVFR
IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT ALL BUT JAMES RIVER VALLEY. KJMS IMPVG
TO VFR AFTER 14Z. WINDS AND SNOW DIMINISHING AND ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-033>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KBIS 231841
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1241 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED BACK POPS AGAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH. WINDS BEHIND THE
PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE DROPPING OFF A BIT. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP A
PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEW NAM IS TRENDING
LOWER. ALSO TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW COVER
SOUTHWEST IS TOO CRUSTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
BOWBELLS AND MOHALL. COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATUS HAS DROPPED SOUTH TO COVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAISED SKY COVER TO
CLOUDY MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AT 18Z. COLD FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND END TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ALSO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 231841
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1241 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED BACK POPS AGAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH. WINDS BEHIND THE
PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE DROPPING OFF A BIT. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP A
PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEW NAM IS TRENDING
LOWER. ALSO TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW COVER
SOUTHWEST IS TOO CRUSTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
BOWBELLS AND MOHALL. COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATUS HAS DROPPED SOUTH TO COVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAISED SKY COVER TO
CLOUDY MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AT 18Z. COLD FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND END TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ALSO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 231551
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEW NAM IS TRENDING
LOWER. ALSO TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW COVER
SOUTHWEST IS TOO CRUSTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
BOWBELLS AND MOHALL. COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATUS HAS DROPPED SOUTH TO COVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAISED SKY COVER TO
CLOUDY MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER THE
MANITOBA AT 15Z WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING. MVFR LEVEL CIGS AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS MORNING TO KBIS/KJMS. BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW KISN-KMOT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
40 KNOTS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 231551
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEW NAM IS TRENDING
LOWER. ALSO TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW COVER
SOUTHWEST IS TOO CRUSTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
BOWBELLS AND MOHALL. COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATUS HAS DROPPED SOUTH TO COVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAISED SKY COVER TO
CLOUDY MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER THE
MANITOBA AT 15Z WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING. MVFR LEVEL CIGS AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS MORNING TO KBIS/KJMS. BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW KISN-KMOT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
40 KNOTS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 231551
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEW NAM IS TRENDING
LOWER. ALSO TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW COVER
SOUTHWEST IS TOO CRUSTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
BOWBELLS AND MOHALL. COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATUS HAS DROPPED SOUTH TO COVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAISED SKY COVER TO
CLOUDY MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER THE
MANITOBA AT 15Z WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING. MVFR LEVEL CIGS AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS MORNING TO KBIS/KJMS. BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW KISN-KMOT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
40 KNOTS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 231551
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEW NAM IS TRENDING
LOWER. ALSO TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW COVER
SOUTHWEST IS TOO CRUSTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
BOWBELLS AND MOHALL. COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATUS HAS DROPPED SOUTH TO COVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAISED SKY COVER TO
CLOUDY MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER THE
MANITOBA AT 15Z WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING. MVFR LEVEL CIGS AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS MORNING TO KBIS/KJMS. BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW KISN-KMOT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
40 KNOTS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 231242
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
BOWBELLS AND MOHALL. COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATUS HAS DROPPED SOUTH TO COVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAISED SKY COVER TO
CLOUDY MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER THE
MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AT 12Z WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE THIS MORNING. MVFR LEVEL CIGS AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS MORNING TO KBIS/KJMS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-
036-037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV








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