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000
FXUS63 KBIS 291127
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
627 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Other than to blend to observed trends through 11 UTC, the
forecast remains on track with no changes required.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

A mostly sunny Sunday after morning fog highlights the short term
forecast.

In a similar setup to the past couple of mornings, areas of fog
will continue to develop across much of western and central North
Dakota towards sunrise this morning, burning off by 14 UTC.
Thereafter, a mostly sunny Sunday is expected as a dry airmass is
advected into the area in the wake of the Saturday disturbance.
Isolated thunderstorms developing across southeast Montana this
afternoon may survive into southwest and far south central North
Dakota this evening and into the tonight with a modest low level
jet. Given limited moisture, severe weather is not expected.
Overall, a blend of the 00 UTC guidance suites were favored for
all fields.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Thunderstorm potential on Memorial Day highlights the extended
forecast.

The trend for widespread thunderstorms on Memorial Day Monday
continues amongst the 00 UTC guidance suites. An upper level wave
across the Pacific Northwest today is forecast to propagate into
eastern Montana and close off on Monday. Low level moisture
transport ahead of this system is expected to yield dew points in
the mid to upper 50s across the southwest and south central. SPC
in their Day 2 Convective Outlook has maintained a marginal risk
for severe thunderstorms for these areas, and has shrunk the
already small slight risk that was highlighted across southern
North Dakota. This is plausible given greater moisture/instability
focused across South Dakota and possible cloud cover impacts from
convection that is expected to already be ongoing Monday morning
across eastern Montana. Never the less, given the strength of the
wave, widespread thunderstorms are favored Monday afternoon and
evening across the area. WPC has maintained in their QPF forecast
the potential for one to two inches across the northwest and far
north central into Tuesday associated with the pivot point and
wrap around moisture as the upper level low moves into central
North Dakota on Tuesday. A stretch of less active weather is
possible mid to late next week as a possible intermountain west
upper level ridge is favored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Areas of IFR/LIFR fog across western and central North Dakota will
burn off by 14-15 UTC. Thereafter, VFR conditions are expected for
the 12 UTC TAF cycle. Looking ahead, widespread
thunderstorms are expected across North Dakota Monday and Monday
night.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
AVIATION...AYD





000
FXUS63 KBIS 290243
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
943 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

As sunset approaches the convection is quickly subsiding. Updated
the pops to end the precipiation shortly after midnight. Kept the
mention of patchy fog where rain fell this afternoon and evening,
which is mainly northwest through portions of the south central.

UPDATE Issued at 607 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

This update will refine the chances for thunderstorms along a
line in central north dakota moving east Saturday evening. Severe
weather is not expected with this line however abundant lightning
and brief heavy rain is expected.

added some fog across the northwest and portions of the south
central after midnight as the CONSShort guidance suggested this.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Currently...an upper level low was over British Columbia with a
trough extending southeastward into Montana...and a leading vort
energy impulse moving east across western North Dakota. A line of
showers and thunderstorms associated with this feature is forecast
to continue moving east across the state tonight. Meanwhile another
weaker upper level low was over the Red River Valley from Sioux
Falls to near Fargo...with a line of instability with higher CAPE
farther west from near Devils Lake south across the James River
Valley. A line of scattered showers and thunderstorms was associated
with this feature, which was moving westward very slowly or was
stationary as the upper low lifts north/northeastward tonight.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms should end from west to east
across our area tonight...and a mid level ridge moves east across
North Dakota through Sunday. A mild and dry day Sunday with mostly
sunny skies is in store for us.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Main highlight is the severe thunderstorm potential Monday, mainly
over far southwest into portions of south central North Dakota.
SPC continues to advertise a slight risk in this area.

Sunday night an upper level closed low that is currently over
British Columbia develops into a longwave trough as it moves east
into the Canadian and US Rockies. As this occurs a low level jet
develops over the plains along with a southerly return flow as
surface low pressure develops over the Rockies...bringing a return
to higher dewpoints in the 50s/60s to North Dakota on Monday. A few
leading upper level impulses...with increasing instability aided by
the developing low level jet...will warrant keeping a chance of
showers and thunderstorms developing Sunday night mainly in the west
and south central portions of North Dakota.

Monday the upper level closed low/trough moves southeast across
Montana, and a leading shortwave moves east/northeastward across
North Dakota...providing support aloft for widespread showers and
thunderstorms - along with increasing CAPE and bulk shear. This
environment gives us fairly high confidence for severe weather -
especially in the southwest and south central parts of North Dakota.

Both the GFS and ECMWF depict the upper low moving east across North
Dakota Tuesday into Wednesday morning, then lifting northeast into
western Ontario Wednesday afternoon. This will keep a chance of
showers and thunderstorms across our area Tuesday and Tuesday night,
then mainly a chance in central North Dakota on Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Saturday should be dry with a northwest flow
over North Dakota as an upper level ridge builds over the west coast
and Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Main hazards to aviation will be thunderstorms moving through
central North Dakota Saturday evening impacting KBIS-KJMS
primarily between 00-05z. After 06z some fog will be expected to
form over the northwest impacting KISN between 08-14z with vsbys
3br. Otherwise vfr.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA





000
FXUS63 KBIS 281752
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Current forecast for precip chances looks on track. Noted convection
beginning in southwestern North Dakota from a Beach to
Marmarth/Bowman line as per the short term high res models. Current
surface based CAPE indicates CAPE values from 500-1000 J/Kg over
southern and eastern North Dakota...with low clouds in the northern
areas of the state inhibiting surface heating. Wind shear remains
weak with marginal mid level lapse rates. Thinking has not changed
regarding sub-severe nature of expected convection...but potential
remains for some stronger updrafts that might produce some small
hail that might reach the ground.

Regarding temperatures...temps a bit slower to rise in the north
beneath the low clouds than we had forecast, but not by much. Mainly
blended current temps with afternoon forecast using a blend of high
res models.

UPDATE Issued at 947 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

We made some minor adjustments to PoPs through the late morning to
reflect the ongoing generally dry conditions. We still expect that
to change by afternoon, when shower and thunderstorm activity will
increase. Forecast soundings, including from the most recent RAP,
support up to 500 J/kg of MLCAPE developing over western ND ahead
of the shortwave trough moving through eastern MT this morning. We
expect a line of showers and thunderstorms to develop as that wave
moves eastward, likely reaching the Highway 83 corridor by 23-01
UTC per recent convection-allowing model guidance. Deep-layer
shear will be weak, so we expect storms to be sub-severe, but cold
air aloft with 500 MB temperatures near -16 C suggests stronger
updrafts could produce small hail.

UPDATE Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

The 06-10 UTC high resolution suites are well in support of the
previous forecast for today highlighted by morning fog and
followed by afternoon and evening thunderstorms, especially
across the west. The forecast was blended to observed trends
through 11 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Stratus across the north and into portions of central North Dakota
this morning, followed by showers and thunderstorms developing
west in the afternoon moving into central ND late afternoon into
the evening highlight the short term period.

The latest fog/stratus loop and surface observations show a wide
swath of stratus north through portions of central North Dakota
early this morning. Where the stratus has lowered enough to reach
ground level, patchy fog is being reported with visibilities
mainly between 3 and 6 miles. Have followed the HRRR and RAP13
for initialization and sky forecast. Low level northeast winds
continue to advect in the lower clouds from southern Canada. A
good proxy for the southern most extent should be near and along a
line from Dickinson into Bismarck and Jamestown. These clouds will
slowly lift through the morning with an overall mostly cloudy sky
dominating.

The water vapor imagery shows our next pair of shortwaves, one
located near Phillips, Montana, and the second scooting through
the Idaho panhandle. These shortwaves and an associated surface
cold front will be the catalyst for shower and thunderstorm
initiation in the west between 18z and 21z today, then shifting
toward central North Dakota between 00z and 06z Sunday. Most
unstable cape across the west this afternoon on the order of
between 500 and 1000 j/kg, and 0-6km bulk shear remains weak
between 20 and 25kt. Cape quickly fades between 03z and 06z as the
precipiation shifts into central North Dakota.

The far southern James River Valley will get clipped by a few
showers or thunderstorms through the morning, which are emanating
around an upper low in northeast Nebraska. Current local and
regional radar shows isolated showers in LaMoure and Dickey
counties.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Main highlight is the severe thunderstorm potential Monday, mainly
over far southwest into portions of south central North Dakota.
SPC continues to advertise a slight risk in this area.

Preceding the potential severe weather will be a dry and pleasant
Sunday with highs in the 70s. A mid level transitory ridge slides
across western and central North Dakota and will keep the area dry
until 00z Monday. Instability increases Sunday night with a chance
of showers and thunderstorms possibly developing on the heels of a
weak to moderate low level southerly jet in southwest and into
south central North Dakota.

Then, a potent closed upper low which is currently over western
British Columbia, advances into northeast Montana Monday
afternoon. A leading shortwave is forecast to produce showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Monday night. Model
continuity in advertising a high cape and shear environment
results in higher confidence for severe weather.

With the slow movement of the upper low into western North Dakota
Tuesday, another round of showers and thunderstorms, possibly
severe appear to gain momentum again across southern North Dakota.
The upper low finally gets pushed into the southern James River
Valley Tuesday night with drier air nudging from west to east.

Wednesday afternoon through Friday will be under a drier northwest
flow. It is possible that a couple shortwaves embedded within the
flow could create the potential for some showers, but at this
point, areal coverage for any measurable precipitation is scarce.
It looks dry with a warming trend into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

MVFR ceilings will linger into mid/late afternoon for KISN, KJMS and
KMOT. Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop in western
areas, continued development is expected in western and central
areas through the afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely impact each
of the TAF sites. Gusty winds, reduced visibilities, and lower VFR
ceilings are anticipated as showers and thunderstorms move through
the TAF location.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AC





000
FXUS63 KBIS 281148
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
648 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

The 06-10 UTC high resolution suites are well in support of the
previous forecast for today highlighted by morning fog and
followed by afternoon and evening thunderstorms, especially
across the west. The forecast was blended to observed trends
through 11 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Stratus across the north and into portions of central North Dakota
this morning, followed by showers and thunderstorms developing
west in the afternoon moving into central ND late afternoon into
the evening highlight the short term period.

The latest fog/stratus loop and surface observations show a wide
swath of stratus north through portions of central North Dakota
early this morning. Where the stratus has lowered enough to reach
ground level, patchy fog is being reported with visibilities
mainly between 3 and 6 miles. Have followed the HRRR and RAP13
for initialization and sky forecast. Low level northeast winds
continue to advect in the lower clouds from southern Canada. A
good proxy for the southern most extent should be near and along a
line from Dickinson into Bismarck and Jamestown. These clouds will
slowly lift through the morning with an overall mostly cloudy sky
dominating.

The water vapor imagery shows our next pair of shortwaves, one
located near Phillips, Montana, and the second scooting through
the Idaho panhandle. These shortwaves and an associated surface
cold front will be the catalyst for shower and thunderstorm
initiation in the west between 18z and 21z today, then shifting
toward central North Dakota between 00z and 06z Sunday. Most
unstable cape across the west this afternoon on the order of
between 500 and 1000 j/kg, and 0-6km bulk shear remains weak
between 20 and 25kt. Cape quickly fades between 03z and 06z as the
precipiation shifts into central North Dakota.

The far southern James River Valley will get clipped by a few
showers or thunderstorms through the morning, which are emanating
around an upper low in northeast Nebraska. Current local and
regional radar shows isolated showers in LaMoure and Dickey
counties.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Main highlight is the severe thunderstorm potential Monday, mainly
over far southwest into portions of south central North Dakota.
SPC continues to advertise a slight risk in this area.

Preceding the potential severe weather will be a dry and pleasant
Sunday with highs in the 70s. A mid level transitory ridge slides
across western and central North Dakota and will keep the area dry
until 00z Monday. Instability increases Sunday night with a chance
of showers and thunderstorms possibly developing on the heels of a
weak to moderate low level southerly jet in southwest and into
south central North Dakota.

Then, a potent closed upper low which is currently over western
British Columbia, advances into northeast Montana Monday
afternoon. A leading shortwave is forecast to produce showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Monday night. Model
continuity in advertising a high cape and shear environment
results in higher confidence for severe weather.

With the slow movement of the upper low into western North Dakota
Tuesday, another round of showers and thunderstorms, possibly
severe appear to gain momentum again across southern North Dakota.
The upper low finally gets pushed into the southern James River
Valley Tuesday night with drier air nudging from west to east.

Wednesday afternoon through Friday will be under a drier northwest
flow. It is possible that a couple shortwaves embedded within the
flow could create the potential for some showers, but at this
point, areal coverage for any measurable precipitation is scarce.
It looks dry with a warming trend into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

IFR ceilings and visibility in stratus/fog begin the 12Z TAF
period with ceilings slowly improving to VFR after 16-17Z. A line
of showers and thunderstorms will develop from KISN to KDIK
between 18-00Z and approach the KBIS/KMOT terminals this evening.
A clearing sky will occur from west to east between 06-12Z
Sunday.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD





000
FXUS63 KBIS 280738
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
238 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Stratus across the north and into portions of central North Dakota
this morning, followed by showers and thunderstorms developing
west in the afternoon moving into central ND late afternoon into
the evening highlight the short term period.

The latest fog/stratus loop and surface observations show a wide
swath of stratus north through portions of central North Dakota
early this morning. Where the stratus has lowered enough to reach
ground level, patchy fog is being reported with visibilities
mainly between 3 and 6 miles. Have followed the HRRR and RAP13
for initialization and sky forecast. Low level northeast winds
continue to advect in the lower clouds from southern Canada. A
good proxy for the southern most extent should be near and along a
line from Dickinson into Bismarck and Jamestown. These clouds will
slowly lift through the morning with an overall mostly cloudy sky
dominating.

The water vapor imagery shows our next pair of shortwaves, one
located near Phillips, Montana, and the second scooting through
the Idaho panhandle. These shortwaves and an associated surface
cold front will be the catalyst for shower and thunderstorm
initiation in the west between 18z and 21z today, then shifting
toward central North Dakota between 00z and 06z Sunday. Most
unstable cape across the west this afternoon on the order of
between 500 and 1000 j/kg, and 0-6km bulk shear remains weak
between 20 and 25kt. Cape quickly fades between 03z and 06z as the
precipiation shifts into central North Dakota.

The far southern James River Valley will get clipped by a few
showers or thunderstorms through the morning, which are emanating
around an upper low in northeast Nebraska. Current local and
regional radar shows isolated showers in LaMoure and Dickey
counties.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Main highlight is the severe thunderstorm potential Monday, mainly
over far southwest into portions of south central North Dakota.
SPC continues to advertise a slight risk in this area.

Preceding the potential severe weather will be a dry and pleasant
Sunday with highs in the 70s. A mid level transitory ridge slides
across western and central North Dakota and will keep the area dry
until 00z Monday. Instability increases Sunday night with a chance
of showers and thunderstorms possibly developing on the heels of a
weak to moderate low level southerly jet in southwest and into
south central North Dakota.

Then, a potent closed upper low which is currently over western
British Columbia, advances into northeast Montana Monday
afternoon. A leading shortwave is forecast to produce showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Monday night. Model
continuity in advertising a high cape and shear environment
results in higher confidence for severe weather.

With the slow movement of the upper low into western North Dakota
Tuesday, another round of showers and thunderstorms, possibly
severe appear to gain momentum again across southern North Dakota.
The upper low finally gets pushed into the southern James River
Valley Tuesday night with drier air nudging from west to east.

Wednesday afternoon through Friday will be under a drier northwest
flow. It is possible that a couple shortwaves embedded within the
flow could create the potential for some showers, but at this
point, areal coverage for any measurable precipitation is scarce.
It looks dry with a warming trend into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Ifr cigs along with intermittent mvfr vsbys in fog at KMOT/KISN
will spread south into KBIS/KJMS between 10z-12z Saturday.
Ceilings are expected to deteriorate to lifr at KMOT by 12z.
Thereafter, improvement to mvfr will occur between 16z and 20z
Saturday. -Shra and vcts expected at KISN/KDIK between 20z and 23Z
Saturday before scooting into the central terminals 00z-06z
Sunday. The showers and thunderstorms are forecast to weaken as
they move into central North Dakota Saturday evening, thus enough
uncertainty at KMOT/KBIS/KJMS to not mention any precipitation at
this time.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 271447
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
947 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Fog has dissipated nearly all areas...and expect through this hour
that all locales should be fog free. No big changes needed and
blended hourly temperature trends to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

No significant changes required other than to blend to observed
trends through 11 UTC. Maintained a thunderstorm free forecast
for today southwest and south central where mid 30s to mid 40s dew
points are in place this morning, with little airmass exchange
forecast today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Morning fog, possibly dense, and the redevelopment of showers and
some thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening highlight the short
term.

For the near term period now through mid morning, areas of fog,
possibly dense, will be monitored for portions of western and south
central North Dakota. This is associated with a clear/dry slot and
calm surface winds. The latest HRRR shows fog, and an elevated stratus
layer above the surface. This may be a combination of low clouds
along with patchy dense fog. This is expected to dwindle by 15z.

Mid to upper level closed low per water vapor imagery seen
circulating over the Turtle Mountains slowly opens up today and
meanders into southern Manitoba this afternoon. Theme from the
past several days with cyclonic flow and cold pool of air aloft
with instability being maximized in the afternoon and early
evening will continue today. However, cape and shear are both
weaker this afternoon as compared to Thursday. Expect the sky to
once again cloud up with daytime heating with an increasing cumulus
field. The highest pops will reside in the north closer to the
700mb upper low, with decreasing chances south. No severe weather
anticipated given the environmental conditions mentioned above.
The showers and thunderstorms will diminish with sunset this
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The overall message of chances for showers and thunderstorms
remains unchanged. However, confidence for the most widespread
event and potentially severe event is Monday afternoon west, then
transitioning into central North Dakota Monday night into Tuesday.
The driest days appear to be Sunday and Thursday.

Timing of shortwaves and associated showers and thunderstorms
prior to Monday per GFS and ECMWF suggest that a mid level
shortwave will shift from eastern Montana into western and central
ND Saturday evening and night. Thunderstorms that develop Saturday
afternoon west will propagate into central North Dakota Saturday
night while weakening with time. This shortwave exits Sunday
morning, with a mid level transitory ridge amplifying over
central ND for a mainly dry day Sunday into Monday morning.

A closed mid and upper level low approach Monday and slowly moves
east across western and central ND Tuesday through Wednesday.
Severe potential ahead of the system Monday afternoon through
Tuesday morning as mentioned above. This is followed by a dry
slot, then cooler air with rain showers on the back side of the
system Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 946 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Fog has lifted. VFR ceilings are forecast today across most of
western and central ND with ceilings from 3500 to 5000 ft AGL.
However, MVFR and local IFR ceilings will occur across north central
ND this morning, impacting KMOT. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms may impact KISN, KJMS, and KMOT this afternoon, but
given uncertainty they were not included in the 12 UTC TAFs. MVFR to
IFR ceilings will likely develop over northwest and north central ND
tonight.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
AVIATION...CJS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 270725
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
225 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Morning fog, possibly dense, and the redevelopment of showers and
some thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening highlight the short
term.

For the near term period now through mid morning, areas of fog,
possibly dense, will be monitored for portions of western and south
central North Dakota. This is associated with a clear/dry slot and
calm surface winds. The latest HRRR shows fog, and an elevated stratus
layer above the surface. This may be a combination of low clouds
along with patchy dense fog. This is expected to dwindle by 15z.

Mid to upper level closed low per water vapor imagery seen
circulating over the Turtle Mountains slowly opens up today and
meanders into southern Manitoba this afternoon. Theme from the
past several days with cyclonic flow and cold pool of air aloft
with instability being maximized in the afternoon and early
evening will continue today. However, cape and shear are both
weaker this afternoon as compared to Thursday. Expect the sky to
once again cloud up with daytime heating with an increasing cumulus
field. The highest pops will reside in the north closer to the
700mb upper low, with decreasing chances south. No severe weather
anticipated given the environmental conditions mentioned above.
The showers and thunderstorms will diminish with sunset this
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The overall message of chances for showers and thunderstorms
remains unchanged. However, confidence for the most widespread
event and potentially severe event is Monday afternoon west, then
transitioning into central North Dakota Monday night into Tuesday.
The driest days appear to be Sunday and Thursday.

Timing of shortwaves and associated showers and thunderstorms
prior to Monday per GFS and ECMWF suggest that a mid level
shortwave will shift from eastern Montana into western and central
ND Saturday evening and night. Thunderstorms that develop Saturday
afternoon west will propagate into central North Dakota Saturday
night while weakening with time. This shortwave exits Sunday
morning, with a mid level transitory ridge amplifying over
central ND for a mainly dry day Sunday into Monday morning.

A closed mid and upper level low approach Monday and slowly moves
east across western and central ND Tuesday through Wednesday.
Severe potential ahead of the system Monday afternoon through
Tuesday morning as mentioned above. This is followed by a dry
slot, then cooler air with rain showers on the back side of the
system Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Patchy fog, possibly dense, along with IFR/LIFR cigs between 11z
and 14z Friday may occur at KDIK and KBIS. KISN and KMOT will be
meandering between mvfr and low vfr cigs through the TAF period.
The remaining terminals will experience vfr cigs, however bkn
conditions between 5kft to 6kft can be expected. A vcsh will be
carried at Minot through 14z Friday, and then again 18z Friday
until 00z Saturday. a VCSH has been carried at KBIS Friday afternoon.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 270515 CCA
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1215 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Quick update to mention some fog potential in the dry slot from
southwest through south central per latest HRRR and RAP.

Latest local and regional radar along with water vapor imagery
show the closed upper low now over the Turtle Mountains.
Rainshowers advancing southwest around the low from Manitoba and
Saskatchewan into northern North Dakota. Another line of showers
and isolated thunderstorms that formed along an outflow boundary
now into the southern James River Valley moving northeast with
time. Showers expected north central rest of tonight and have
followed the HRRR with likely to scattered rainshowers. Central
and southern generally dry rest of tonight. Forecast remains on
track with remnants of the mid level low still maintaining a
presence Friday with the sky clouding back up with daytime heating
followed by isolated to scattered showers.

UPDATE Issued at 919 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

latest trends have the showers/isolated thunderstorms across the
north greatly diminishing as the convergence zones from
thunderstorm outflows diminish and the sun sets. New band of
showers and thunderstorms forming across the southeast. Expect
these to remain non-severe and track slowly east for the remainder
of the evening.

UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

At 630 pm CDT a line of thunderstorms extended E-W from near
Williston east to 10 miles south of Minot moving north about 10
miles an hour. Storms have been getting slowly stronger late this
afternoon. Main threats are hail and the occasional funnel cloud
as the non supercell parameter is high. Focused highest pops
along highway 2 corridor this evening between Williston and
Rugby. Expect the storms to rapidly diminish after 9 pm CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Current surface analysis places low over southeastern Manitoba,
with trough dropping back to the west/southwest. Slow moving upper
low continues to loiter over far west-central into northwest North
Dakota. Scattered showers/thunderstorms continue to develop in
strong cyclonic flow around upper low in vicinity aforementioned
surface trough.

For the remainder of this afternoon into tonight, showers/storms
will continue to develop around aforementioned upper low. Many
reports of small hail have come which seem reasonable given the
cooler temperatures aloft in the vicinity of the surface low
combined with modest instability. With that said, with minimal
deep layer shear available expect the severe threat to remain low
and if one did become strong would expect it to be short lived.
Coverage should gradually dissipate this evening with the loss of
daytime heating.

On Friday, upper low gradually lifts towards the northeast
bringing another round of shower and thunderstorm chances,
particularly over the northern and eastern locations in areas of
greatest cyclonic flow.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Active southwesterly flow will continue over the Northern Plains
through the first part of next week, bringing daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms along with near to slightly above
average temperatures. Models are in agreement on sliding a broad
upper low over the area towards the middle of next week, which
would bring greater chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

KISN and KMOT will be meandering between mvfr and low vfr cigs
through the TAF period. The remaining terminals will experience
vfr cigs, however bkn conditions at around 5kft to 6kft can be
expected. A vcsh will be carried at Minot through 14z Friday, and
then again 18z Friday until 00z Saturday. Vcfg was added to KBIS
early in the TAF period, with a vcsh Friday afternoon.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 270448
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1148 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Latest local and regional radar along with water vapor imagery
show the closed upper low now over the Turtle Mountains.
Rainshowers advancing southwest around the low from Manitoba and
Saskatchewan into northern North Dakota. Another line of showers
and isolated thunderstorms that formed along an outflow boundary
now into the southern James River Valley moving northeast with
time. Showers expected north central rest of tonight and have
followed the HRRR with likely to scattered rainshowers. Central
and southern generally dry rest of tonight. Forecast remains on
track with remnants of the mid level low still maintaining a
presence Friday with the sky clouding back up with daytime heating
followed by isolated to scattered showers.

UPDATE Issued at 919 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

latest trends have the showers/isolated thunderstorms across the
north greatly diminishing as the convergence zones from
thunderstorm outflows diminish and the sun sets. New band of
showers and thunderstorms forming across the southeast. Expect
these to remain non-severe and track slowly east for the remainder
of the evening.

UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

At 630 pm CDT a line of thunderstorms extended E-W from near
Williston east to 10 miles south of Minot moving north about 10
miles an hour. Storms have been getting slowly stronger late this
afternoon. Main threats are hail and the occasional funnel cloud
as the non supercell parameter is high. Focused highest pops
along highway 2 corridor this evening between Williston and
Rugby. Expect the storms to rapidly diminish after 9 pm CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Current surface analysis places low over southeastern Manitoba,
with trough dropping back to the west/southwest. Slow moving upper
low continues to loiter over far west-central into northwest North
Dakota. Scattered showers/thunderstorms continue to develop in
strong cyclonic flow around upper low in vicinity aforementioned
surface trough.

For the remainder of this afternoon into tonight, showers/storms
will continue to develop around aforementioned upper low. Many
reports of small hail have come which seem reasonable given the
cooler temperatures aloft in the vicinity of the surface low
combined with modest instability. With that said, with minimal
deep layer shear available expect the severe threat to remain low
and if one did become strong would expect it to be short lived.
Coverage should gradually dissipate this evening with the loss of
daytime heating.

On Friday, upper low gradually lifts towards the northeast
bringing another round of shower and thunderstorm chances,
particularly over the northern and eastern locations in areas of
greatest cyclonic flow.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Active southwesterly flow will continue over the Northern Plains
through the first part of next week, bringing daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms along with near to slightly above
average temperatures. Models are in agreement on sliding a broad
upper low over the area towards the middle of next week, which
would bring greater chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

KISN and KMOT will be meandering between mvfr and low vfr cigs
through the TAF period. The remaining terminals will experience
vfr cigs, however bkn conditions at around 5kft to 6kft can be
expected. A vcsh will be carried at Minot through 14z Friday, and
then again 18z Friday until 00z Saturday. A vcsh was added to the
KBIS taf for Friday afternoon.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS





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