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000
FXUS63 KBIS 300230
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
930 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE STAGE AT BANTRY ON THE SOURIS HAS RISEN FASTER THAN
FORECAST...SO A FLOOD WARNING FOR MINOR FLOODING WAS ISSUED.
OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS WINDS HAVE
COME DOWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
INHIBITS MIXING. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO WESTERN
ND...BUT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION UNTIL
THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLIPS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF
SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...SCHECK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300230
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
930 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE STAGE AT BANTRY ON THE SOURIS HAS RISEN FASTER THAN
FORECAST...SO A FLOOD WARNING FOR MINOR FLOODING WAS ISSUED.
OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS WINDS HAVE
COME DOWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
INHIBITS MIXING. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO WESTERN
ND...BUT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION UNTIL
THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLIPS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF
SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...SCHECK








000
FXUS63 KBIS 300230
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
930 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE STAGE AT BANTRY ON THE SOURIS HAS RISEN FASTER THAN
FORECAST...SO A FLOOD WARNING FOR MINOR FLOODING WAS ISSUED.
OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS WINDS HAVE
COME DOWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
INHIBITS MIXING. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO WESTERN
ND...BUT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION UNTIL
THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLIPS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF
SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...SCHECK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 292335
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
INHIBITS MIXING. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO WESTERN
ND...BUT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION UNTIL
THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLIPS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...SCHECK








000
FXUS63 KBIS 292335
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
INHIBITS MIXING. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO WESTERN
ND...BUT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION UNTIL
THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLIPS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...SCHECK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 292335
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
INHIBITS MIXING. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO WESTERN
ND...BUT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION UNTIL
THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLIPS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...SCHECK








000
FXUS63 KBIS 292335
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
INHIBITS MIXING. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO WESTERN
ND...BUT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION UNTIL
THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLIPS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...SCHECK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 292044
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
344 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL AFFECT THE KDIK
TERMINAL AND POSSIBLY THE KISN TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY
THE TIME THE CLOUDS REACH KMOT-KBIS EXPECT SCT-BKN CIGS TO BE AT
VFR LEVELS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFERNOON OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 292044
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
344 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL AFFECT THE KDIK
TERMINAL AND POSSIBLY THE KISN TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY
THE TIME THE CLOUDS REACH KMOT-KBIS EXPECT SCT-BKN CIGS TO BE AT
VFR LEVELS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFERNOON OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS










000
FXUS63 KBIS 292044
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
344 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...WHILE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. WINDS REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

FOR TONIGHT...A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AS RIDGING TO THE WEST REMAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS
IN STORE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

OVERALL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST WEEKENDS WEATHER EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS STRONG
WILL BE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEST...AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
CENTRAL. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTAINS THE COLDEST AIR AND WILL
SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTHWEST...THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CENTRAL. BOTH WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS AS SEPARATE MODERATE
TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES FOLLOW EACH FRONT.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FOCUSED AROUND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION/SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH FIRE INTO
A CRITICAL/ERRATIC SCENARIO SHOULD A FIRE DEVELOP. POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BUT
ALSO STRONGER WINDS. WINDS COULD OVERPOWER THE INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHICH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. WIND
SPEEDS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...WITH BOTH DAYS REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...A COORDINATION CALL TO THE FIRE MANAGEMENT
OFFICERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY DISCUSSING CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE PASSED ALONG TO FUTURE SHIFTS.
WITH THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO SHIFT THROUGH...EXPECT A LONGER
DURATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...700MB-500MB RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TAKE PLACE
WEST TOWARD 06Z WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 12Z CENTRAL. SPC INDICATED NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPINGING UPON OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CLOSER
TO 06Z WEST...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BOTH THE NAM/GFS
INDICATE A 8-9MB 3HR/6HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE SLIDING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY POSSIBLY BE MET FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NAM AND
GFS MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
LIFTED INDICES/SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
TO 400 J/KG WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH...AND
THEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850MB COLD POCKET THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 37 IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FIRMLY IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARD BROAD
RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW BY SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND BASICALLY KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOTHING
TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL AFFECT THE KDIK
TERMINAL AND POSSIBLY THE KISN TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY
THE TIME THE CLOUDS REACH KMOT-KBIS EXPECT SCT-BKN CIGS TO BE AT
VFR LEVELS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFERNOON OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 291745
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1245 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WILL BE LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DROP AT 18Z AS WINDS HAVE NOW DIMINISHED
BELOW CRITERIA ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ALSO BE ADJUSTING CLOUD COVER
A BIT AT SOME LOWER CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND ARE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST. WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS
HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFF TO THE EAST.
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE CLEARED OUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AND
HAVE TRIMMED OFF WINDS TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN...THOUGH
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL AFFECT THE KDIK
TERMINAL AND POSSIBLY THE KISN TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY
THE TIME THE CLOUDS REACH KMOT-KBIS EXPECT SCT-BKN CIGS TO BE AT
VFR LEVELS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFERNOON OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ025-037-047-
048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 291745
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1245 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WILL BE LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DROP AT 18Z AS WINDS HAVE NOW DIMINISHED
BELOW CRITERIA ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ALSO BE ADJUSTING CLOUD COVER
A BIT AT SOME LOWER CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND ARE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST. WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS
HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFF TO THE EAST.
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE CLEARED OUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AND
HAVE TRIMMED OFF WINDS TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN...THOUGH
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL AFFECT THE KDIK
TERMINAL AND POSSIBLY THE KISN TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY
THE TIME THE CLOUDS REACH KMOT-KBIS EXPECT SCT-BKN CIGS TO BE AT
VFR LEVELS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFERNOON OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ025-037-047-
048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 291745
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1245 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WILL BE LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DROP AT 18Z AS WINDS HAVE NOW DIMINISHED
BELOW CRITERIA ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ALSO BE ADJUSTING CLOUD COVER
A BIT AT SOME LOWER CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND ARE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST. WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS
HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFF TO THE EAST.
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE CLEARED OUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AND
HAVE TRIMMED OFF WINDS TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN...THOUGH
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL AFFECT THE KDIK
TERMINAL AND POSSIBLY THE KISN TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY
THE TIME THE CLOUDS REACH KMOT-KBIS EXPECT SCT-BKN CIGS TO BE AT
VFR LEVELS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFERNOON OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ025-037-047-
048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 291745
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1245 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WILL BE LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DROP AT 18Z AS WINDS HAVE NOW DIMINISHED
BELOW CRITERIA ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ALSO BE ADJUSTING CLOUD COVER
A BIT AT SOME LOWER CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND ARE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST. WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS
HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFF TO THE EAST.
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE CLEARED OUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AND
HAVE TRIMMED OFF WINDS TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN...THOUGH
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL AFFECT THE KDIK
TERMINAL AND POSSIBLY THE KISN TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY
THE TIME THE CLOUDS REACH KMOT-KBIS EXPECT SCT-BKN CIGS TO BE AT
VFR LEVELS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFERNOON OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ025-037-047-
048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 291437
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST. WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS
HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFF TO THE EAST.
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE CLEARED OUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AND
HAVE TRIMMED OFF WINDS TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN...THOUGH
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIND DIMINISHING AND SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING. AFTER 9 AM CDT VFR
ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ025-037-047-
048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 291437
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST. WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS
HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFF TO THE EAST.
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE CLEARED OUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AND
HAVE TRIMMED OFF WINDS TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN...THOUGH
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIND DIMINISHING AND SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING. AFTER 9 AM CDT VFR
ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ025-037-047-
048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 291437
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST. WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS
HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFF TO THE EAST.
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE CLEARED OUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AND
HAVE TRIMMED OFF WINDS TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN...THOUGH
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIND DIMINISHING AND SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING. AFTER 9 AM CDT VFR
ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ025-037-047-
048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 291437
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST. WINDS ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS
HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFF TO THE EAST.
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE CLEARED OUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AND
HAVE TRIMMED OFF WINDS TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN...THOUGH
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIND DIMINISHING AND SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING. AFTER 9 AM CDT VFR
ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ025-037-047-
048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 291205
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
705 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIND DIMINISHING AND SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING. AFTER 9 AM CDT VFR
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ020-034.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ005-013-022-
023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ042-045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 291205
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
705 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIND DIMINISHING AND SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING. AFTER 9 AM CDT VFR
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ020-034.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ005-013-022-
023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ042-045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 291205
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
705 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIND DIMINISHING AND SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING. AFTER 9 AM CDT VFR
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ020-034.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ005-013-022-
023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ042-045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 291205
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
705 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND HAVE CANCELLED MOST OF THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. JUST KEPT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. TRIMMED PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. CLOUDS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. PRECIP WILL END SOUTHEAST CWA BY 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIND DIMINISHING AND SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING. AFTER 9 AM CDT VFR
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ020-034.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ005-013-022-
023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ042-045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 290829
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
329 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ002-003-010-
011-019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ









000
FXUS63 KBIS 290829
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
329 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. EVEN THOUGH SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...ONLY MINOR LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THEIR RESIDENCE TIMES WILL
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THEIR QUICK MOVEMENT.

IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A 7MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THESE
RISES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. AS WINDS MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING MOMENTUM WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS INCREASING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND QUICKLY DECREASING LATER THIS
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST COULD OF DAYS. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING
INTERMITTENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE QUIT MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 60S TO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANGE OF AIRMASS.
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. EVEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE BREEZY WITH GFS
FORECAST 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 13 MB MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ002-003-010-
011-019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ










000
FXUS63 KBIS 290456
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1156 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.

PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BEHIND THE TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WAS
JUST ENTERING FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
6MB/3HR OR 12MB/6HR PRESSURE RISE ACROSS MONTANA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS OF 130 UTC...THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS THE AREA OF
STORMS PROPAGATES INTO A MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
QUICKLY END BY 02-03 UTC. ELSEWHERE...A DRY SLOT IS OVERTAKING
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WITH THIS SURGE OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH A MIXED
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 850-800 MB WITH 45-55KTS TO MIX
SUPPORT THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
SHOULD A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
MOVING THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL AND THE SECONDARY ROUND COMING LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERALL REMAIN TAME...THOUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS.

PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES PUSH MAINLY THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BUT NUDGE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGHOUT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE PUSH
WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM.

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE CURRENT 12Z MODEL
SUITE PROJECTS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE CONUS SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NEARING 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SWITCH TOWARDS THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN DRY LIGHTING ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-
019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-
023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 290456
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1156 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.

PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BEHIND THE TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WAS
JUST ENTERING FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
6MB/3HR OR 12MB/6HR PRESSURE RISE ACROSS MONTANA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS OF 130 UTC...THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS THE AREA OF
STORMS PROPAGATES INTO A MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
QUICKLY END BY 02-03 UTC. ELSEWHERE...A DRY SLOT IS OVERTAKING
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WITH THIS SURGE OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH A MIXED
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 850-800 MB WITH 45-55KTS TO MIX
SUPPORT THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
SHOULD A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
MOVING THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL AND THE SECONDARY ROUND COMING LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERALL REMAIN TAME...THOUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS.

PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES PUSH MAINLY THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BUT NUDGE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGHOUT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE PUSH
WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM.

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE CURRENT 12Z MODEL
SUITE PROJECTS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE CONUS SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NEARING 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SWITCH TOWARDS THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN DRY LIGHTING ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-
019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-
023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 290456
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1156 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.

PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BEHIND THE TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WAS
JUST ENTERING FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
6MB/3HR OR 12MB/6HR PRESSURE RISE ACROSS MONTANA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS OF 130 UTC...THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS THE AREA OF
STORMS PROPAGATES INTO A MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
QUICKLY END BY 02-03 UTC. ELSEWHERE...A DRY SLOT IS OVERTAKING
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WITH THIS SURGE OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH A MIXED
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 850-800 MB WITH 45-55KTS TO MIX
SUPPORT THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
SHOULD A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
MOVING THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL AND THE SECONDARY ROUND COMING LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERALL REMAIN TAME...THOUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS.

PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES PUSH MAINLY THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BUT NUDGE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGHOUT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE PUSH
WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM.

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE CURRENT 12Z MODEL
SUITE PROJECTS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE CONUS SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NEARING 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SWITCH TOWARDS THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN DRY LIGHTING ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-
019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-
023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 290149
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
849 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS OF 130 UTC...THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS THE AREA OF
STORMS PROPAGATES INTO A MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
QUICKLY END BY 02-03 UTC. ELSEWHERE...A DRY SLOT IS OVERTAKING
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WITH THIS SURGE OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH A MIXED
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 850-800 MB WITH 45-55KTS TO MIX
SUPPORT THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
SHOULD A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
MOVING THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL AND THE SECONDARY ROUND COMING LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERALL REMAIN TAME...THOUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS.

PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES PUSH MAINLY THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BUT NUDGE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGHOUT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE PUSH
WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM.

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE CURRENT 12Z MODEL
SUITE PROJECTS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE CONUS SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NEARING 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AS OF 145 UTC WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SWITCH TOWARDS THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN DRY LIGHTING ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-
019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 290149
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
849 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS OF 130 UTC...THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS THE AREA OF
STORMS PROPAGATES INTO A MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
QUICKLY END BY 02-03 UTC. ELSEWHERE...A DRY SLOT IS OVERTAKING
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WITH THIS SURGE OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH A MIXED
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 850-800 MB WITH 45-55KTS TO MIX
SUPPORT THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
SHOULD A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
MOVING THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL AND THE SECONDARY ROUND COMING LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERALL REMAIN TAME...THOUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS.

PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES PUSH MAINLY THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BUT NUDGE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGHOUT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE PUSH
WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM.

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE CURRENT 12Z MODEL
SUITE PROJECTS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE CONUS SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NEARING 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AS OF 145 UTC WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SWITCH TOWARDS THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN DRY LIGHTING ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-
019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 290149
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
849 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS OF 130 UTC...THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS THE AREA OF
STORMS PROPAGATES INTO A MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
QUICKLY END BY 02-03 UTC. ELSEWHERE...A DRY SLOT IS OVERTAKING
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WITH THIS SURGE OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH A MIXED
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 850-800 MB WITH 45-55KTS TO MIX
SUPPORT THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
SHOULD A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
MOVING THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL AND THE SECONDARY ROUND COMING LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERALL REMAIN TAME...THOUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS.

PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES PUSH MAINLY THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BUT NUDGE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGHOUT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE PUSH
WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM.

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE CURRENT 12Z MODEL
SUITE PROJECTS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE CONUS SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NEARING 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AS OF 145 UTC WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SWITCH TOWARDS THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN DRY LIGHTING ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-
019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 290149
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
849 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS OF 130 UTC...THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS THE AREA OF
STORMS PROPAGATES INTO A MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. THUS...ANTICIPATE THAT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
QUICKLY END BY 02-03 UTC. ELSEWHERE...A DRY SLOT IS OVERTAKING
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WITH THIS SURGE OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH A MIXED
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 850-800 MB WITH 45-55KTS TO MIX
SUPPORT THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
SHOULD A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
MOVING THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL AND THE SECONDARY ROUND COMING LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERALL REMAIN TAME...THOUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS.

PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES PUSH MAINLY THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BUT NUDGE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGHOUT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE PUSH
WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM.

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE CURRENT 12Z MODEL
SUITE PROJECTS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE CONUS SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NEARING 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AS OF 145 UTC WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SWITCH TOWARDS THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN DRY LIGHTING ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002-003-010-011-
019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 282041
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
MOVING THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL AND THE SECONDARY ROUND COMING LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERALL REMAIN TAME...THOUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS.

PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES PUSH MAINLY THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BUT NUDGE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGHOUT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE PUSH
WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM.

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE CURRENT 12Z MODEL
SUITE PROJECTS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE CONUS SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NEARING 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS OVER KJMS WILL ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LCL -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH CHANCES SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY. AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SWITCH TOWARDS THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN DRY LIGHTING ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NDZ002-003-010-011-019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031-032-040-
041-043-044.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS










000
FXUS63 KBIS 282041
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
MOVING THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL AND THE SECONDARY ROUND COMING LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERALL REMAIN TAME...THOUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS.

PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES PUSH MAINLY THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BUT NUDGE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGHOUT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE PUSH
WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM.

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE CURRENT 12Z MODEL
SUITE PROJECTS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE CONUS SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NEARING 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS OVER KJMS WILL ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LCL -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH CHANCES SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY. AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SWITCH TOWARDS THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN DRY LIGHTING ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NDZ002-003-010-011-019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031-032-040-
041-043-044.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS











000
FXUS63 KBIS 282041
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM...WITH SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF 2 ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
MOVING THOUGH PRE-FRONTAL AND THE SECONDARY ROUND COMING LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OVERALL REMAIN TAME...THOUGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOP WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS.

PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES PUSH MAINLY THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BUT NUDGE INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. LATER IN THE EVENING COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY
THROUGHOUT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FRONT AND SHORT WAVE PUSH
WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM.

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST...AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE CURRENT 12Z MODEL
SUITE PROJECTS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE CONUS SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NEARING 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS OVER KJMS WILL ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LCL -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH CHANCES SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY. AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SWITCH TOWARDS THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
RESULT IN DRY LIGHTING ALONG WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NDZ002-003-010-011-019>021-034.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031-032-040-
041-043-044.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-018.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS










000
FXUS63 KBIS 281734
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FOG CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
ONLY A SMALL PATCH LEFT OVER THE FAR NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE GONE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
WINDS PICKING UP ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES PUSHING UP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FOG OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS STARTED TO DIMINISH ON ITS EDGES THIS
MORNING...THOUGH VISIBILITY STILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER PORTIONS
OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL EXPAND MENTION OF FOG
THROUGH MID DAY OVER THIS AREA...THEN EXPECT IT TO ERODE AS WINDS
START PICKING UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH THIS UPDATE WILL REFINE THE FOG AREA. CLOUDS ARE FOG ARE
ERODING FROM THE EAST. BY MID MORNING MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND FOG
SHOULD BE GONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SEVERAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM RANGING FROM
FOG...TO THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS.

THIS MORNING WE START OUT WITH FOG ACROSS THE JAMES AND MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEYS. SOME LOCATIONS WERE ALSO EXPERIENCING LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOG AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS WINDS INCREASE AND
SHIFT FROM AN EAST OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO DUE SOUTH...FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS RISE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. WHILE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MAIN WIND EVENT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND LATER TONIGHT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 50 MPH
(RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING). THE SHORT TERM HIGH RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) ALL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 4 PM CDT. FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (BETWEEN 200 AND 700 J/KG
CAPE DEPENDING WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT) TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT ENHANCED UPDRAFTS...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA
(MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
VERY IMPRESSIVE STEEP PRESSURE RISES ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
WITH PRESSURE RISES AROUND 8 OR 9 MB/3HR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
MIXING DOWN WINDS ALOFT...STRONG WINDS AROUND 40 MPH APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEREFORE
A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND NOT AS MILD BUT GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL.
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME AT 500MB WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIRLY
REGULAR PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERY
PERIODS. AFTER WEDNESDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT 500MB CENTRAL
CANADIAN LOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS OVER KJMS WILL ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LCL -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH CHANCES SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY. AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
25 MPH. THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM MDT. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
DRY LIGHTNING AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. ANY FIRES
COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY AND SHOW ERRATIC BEHAVIOR. DANGEROUS BURNING
CONDITIONS WILL WILL EXIST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002>004-
010>012-019>022-034>036-046-047-050.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7
AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031-032-040-
041-043-044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 281734
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FOG CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
ONLY A SMALL PATCH LEFT OVER THE FAR NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE GONE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
WINDS PICKING UP ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES PUSHING UP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FOG OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS STARTED TO DIMINISH ON ITS EDGES THIS
MORNING...THOUGH VISIBILITY STILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER PORTIONS
OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL EXPAND MENTION OF FOG
THROUGH MID DAY OVER THIS AREA...THEN EXPECT IT TO ERODE AS WINDS
START PICKING UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH THIS UPDATE WILL REFINE THE FOG AREA. CLOUDS ARE FOG ARE
ERODING FROM THE EAST. BY MID MORNING MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND FOG
SHOULD BE GONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SEVERAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM RANGING FROM
FOG...TO THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS.

THIS MORNING WE START OUT WITH FOG ACROSS THE JAMES AND MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEYS. SOME LOCATIONS WERE ALSO EXPERIENCING LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOG AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS WINDS INCREASE AND
SHIFT FROM AN EAST OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO DUE SOUTH...FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS RISE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. WHILE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MAIN WIND EVENT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND LATER TONIGHT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 50 MPH
(RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING). THE SHORT TERM HIGH RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) ALL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 4 PM CDT. FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (BETWEEN 200 AND 700 J/KG
CAPE DEPENDING WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT) TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT ENHANCED UPDRAFTS...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA
(MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
VERY IMPRESSIVE STEEP PRESSURE RISES ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
WITH PRESSURE RISES AROUND 8 OR 9 MB/3HR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
MIXING DOWN WINDS ALOFT...STRONG WINDS AROUND 40 MPH APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEREFORE
A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND NOT AS MILD BUT GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL.
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME AT 500MB WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIRLY
REGULAR PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERY
PERIODS. AFTER WEDNESDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT 500MB CENTRAL
CANADIAN LOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS OVER KJMS WILL ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LCL -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH CHANCES SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY. AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
25 MPH. THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM MDT. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
DRY LIGHTNING AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. ANY FIRES
COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY AND SHOW ERRATIC BEHAVIOR. DANGEROUS BURNING
CONDITIONS WILL WILL EXIST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002>004-
010>012-019>022-034>036-046-047-050.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7
AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031-032-040-
041-043-044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 281734
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FOG CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
ONLY A SMALL PATCH LEFT OVER THE FAR NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE GONE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
WINDS PICKING UP ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES PUSHING UP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FOG OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS STARTED TO DIMINISH ON ITS EDGES THIS
MORNING...THOUGH VISIBILITY STILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER PORTIONS
OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL EXPAND MENTION OF FOG
THROUGH MID DAY OVER THIS AREA...THEN EXPECT IT TO ERODE AS WINDS
START PICKING UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH THIS UPDATE WILL REFINE THE FOG AREA. CLOUDS ARE FOG ARE
ERODING FROM THE EAST. BY MID MORNING MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND FOG
SHOULD BE GONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SEVERAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM RANGING FROM
FOG...TO THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS.

THIS MORNING WE START OUT WITH FOG ACROSS THE JAMES AND MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEYS. SOME LOCATIONS WERE ALSO EXPERIENCING LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOG AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS WINDS INCREASE AND
SHIFT FROM AN EAST OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO DUE SOUTH...FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS RISE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. WHILE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MAIN WIND EVENT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND LATER TONIGHT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 50 MPH
(RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING). THE SHORT TERM HIGH RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) ALL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 4 PM CDT. FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (BETWEEN 200 AND 700 J/KG
CAPE DEPENDING WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT) TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT ENHANCED UPDRAFTS...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA
(MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
VERY IMPRESSIVE STEEP PRESSURE RISES ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
WITH PRESSURE RISES AROUND 8 OR 9 MB/3HR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
MIXING DOWN WINDS ALOFT...STRONG WINDS AROUND 40 MPH APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEREFORE
A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND NOT AS MILD BUT GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL.
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME AT 500MB WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIRLY
REGULAR PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERY
PERIODS. AFTER WEDNESDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT 500MB CENTRAL
CANADIAN LOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS OVER KJMS WILL ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LCL -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH CHANCES SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY. AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
25 MPH. THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM MDT. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
DRY LIGHTNING AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. ANY FIRES
COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY AND SHOW ERRATIC BEHAVIOR. DANGEROUS BURNING
CONDITIONS WILL WILL EXIST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002>004-
010>012-019>022-034>036-046-047-050.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7
AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031-032-040-
041-043-044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 281734
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FOG CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
ONLY A SMALL PATCH LEFT OVER THE FAR NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE GONE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
WINDS PICKING UP ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES PUSHING UP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FOG OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS STARTED TO DIMINISH ON ITS EDGES THIS
MORNING...THOUGH VISIBILITY STILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER PORTIONS
OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL EXPAND MENTION OF FOG
THROUGH MID DAY OVER THIS AREA...THEN EXPECT IT TO ERODE AS WINDS
START PICKING UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH THIS UPDATE WILL REFINE THE FOG AREA. CLOUDS ARE FOG ARE
ERODING FROM THE EAST. BY MID MORNING MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND FOG
SHOULD BE GONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SEVERAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM RANGING FROM
FOG...TO THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS.

THIS MORNING WE START OUT WITH FOG ACROSS THE JAMES AND MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEYS. SOME LOCATIONS WERE ALSO EXPERIENCING LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOG AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS WINDS INCREASE AND
SHIFT FROM AN EAST OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO DUE SOUTH...FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS RISE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. WHILE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MAIN WIND EVENT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND LATER TONIGHT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 50 MPH
(RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING). THE SHORT TERM HIGH RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) ALL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 4 PM CDT. FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (BETWEEN 200 AND 700 J/KG
CAPE DEPENDING WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT) TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT ENHANCED UPDRAFTS...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA
(MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
VERY IMPRESSIVE STEEP PRESSURE RISES ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
WITH PRESSURE RISES AROUND 8 OR 9 MB/3HR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
MIXING DOWN WINDS ALOFT...STRONG WINDS AROUND 40 MPH APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEREFORE
A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND NOT AS MILD BUT GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL.
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME AT 500MB WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIRLY
REGULAR PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERY
PERIODS. AFTER WEDNESDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT 500MB CENTRAL
CANADIAN LOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS OVER KJMS WILL ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LCL -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH CHANCES SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY. AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
25 MPH. THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM MDT. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
DRY LIGHTNING AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. ANY FIRES
COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY AND SHOW ERRATIC BEHAVIOR. DANGEROUS BURNING
CONDITIONS WILL WILL EXIST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002>004-
010>012-019>022-034>036-046-047-050.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7
AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031-032-040-
041-043-044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 281514
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1014 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FOG OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS STARTED TO DIMINISH ON ITS EDGES THIS
MORNING...THOUGH VISIBILITES STILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER PORTIONS
OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL EXPAND MENTION OF FOG
THROUGH MID DAY OVER THIS AREA...THEN EXPECT IT TO ERODE AS WINDS
START PICKING UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH THIS UPDATE WILL REFINE THE FOG AREA. CLOUDS ARE FOG ARE
ERODING FROM THE EAST. BY MID MORNING MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND FOG
SHOULD BE GONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SEVERAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM RANGING FROM
FOG...TO THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS.

THIS MORNING WE START OUT WITH FOG ACROSS THE JAMES AND MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEYS. SOME LOCATIONS WERE ALSO EXPERIENCING LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOG AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS WINDS INCREASE AND
SHIFT FROM AN EAST OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO DUE SOUTH...FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS RISE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. WHILE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MAIN WIND EVENT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND LATER TONIGHT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 50 MPH
(RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING). THE SHORT TERM HIGH RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) ALL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 4 PM CDT. FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (BETWEEN 200 AND 700 J/KG
CAPE DEPENDING WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT) TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT ENHANCED UPDRAFTS...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA
(MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
VERY IMPRESSIVE STEEP PRESSURE RISES ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
WITH PRESSURE RISES AROUND 8 OR 9 MB/3HR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
MIXING DOWN WINDS ALOFT...STRONG WINDS AROUND 40 MPH APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEREFORE
A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND NOT AS MILD BUT GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL.
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME AT 500MB WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIRLY
REGULAR PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERY
PERIODS. AFTER WEDNESDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT 500MB CENTRAL
CANADIAN LOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL DISSIPATE KMOT-KBIS BY MID
MORNING RESULTING IN VFR. OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE REGION.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST
AFTER 3 PM IMPACTING KDIK.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
25 MPH. THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM MDT. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
DRY LIGHTNING AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. ANY FIRES
COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY AND SHOW ERRATIC BEHAVIOR. DANGEROUS BURNING
CONDITIONS WILL WILL EXIST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002>004-
010>012-019>022-034>036-046-047-050.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7
AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031-032-040-
041-043-044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 281514
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1014 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FOG OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS STARTED TO DIMINISH ON ITS EDGES THIS
MORNING...THOUGH VISIBILITES STILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER PORTIONS
OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL EXPAND MENTION OF FOG
THROUGH MID DAY OVER THIS AREA...THEN EXPECT IT TO ERODE AS WINDS
START PICKING UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH THIS UPDATE WILL REFINE THE FOG AREA. CLOUDS ARE FOG ARE
ERODING FROM THE EAST. BY MID MORNING MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND FOG
SHOULD BE GONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SEVERAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM RANGING FROM
FOG...TO THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS.

THIS MORNING WE START OUT WITH FOG ACROSS THE JAMES AND MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEYS. SOME LOCATIONS WERE ALSO EXPERIENCING LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOG AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS WINDS INCREASE AND
SHIFT FROM AN EAST OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO DUE SOUTH...FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS RISE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. WHILE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MAIN WIND EVENT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND LATER TONIGHT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 50 MPH
(RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING). THE SHORT TERM HIGH RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) ALL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 4 PM CDT. FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (BETWEEN 200 AND 700 J/KG
CAPE DEPENDING WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT) TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT ENHANCED UPDRAFTS...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA
(MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
VERY IMPRESSIVE STEEP PRESSURE RISES ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
WITH PRESSURE RISES AROUND 8 OR 9 MB/3HR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
MIXING DOWN WINDS ALOFT...STRONG WINDS AROUND 40 MPH APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEREFORE
A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND NOT AS MILD BUT GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL.
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME AT 500MB WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIRLY
REGULAR PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERY
PERIODS. AFTER WEDNESDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT 500MB CENTRAL
CANADIAN LOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL DISSIPATE KMOT-KBIS BY MID
MORNING RESULTING IN VFR. OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE REGION.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST
AFTER 3 PM IMPACTING KDIK.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
25 MPH. THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM MDT. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
DRY LIGHTNING AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. ANY FIRES
COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY AND SHOW ERRATIC BEHAVIOR. DANGEROUS BURNING
CONDITIONS WILL WILL EXIST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002>004-
010>012-019>022-034>036-046-047-050.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7
AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031-032-040-
041-043-044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 281154
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
654 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH THIS UPDATE WILL REFINE THE FOG AREA. CLOUDS ARE FOG ARE
ERODING FROM THE EAST. BY MID MORNING MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND FOG
SHOULD BE GONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SEVERAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM RANGING FROM
FOG...TO THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS.

THIS MORNING WE START OUT WITH FOG ACROSS THE JAMES AND MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEYS. SOME LOCATIONS WERE ALSO EXPERIENCING LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOG AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS WINDS INCREASE AND
SHIFT FROM AN EAST OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO DUE SOUTH...FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS RISE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. WHILE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MAIN WIND EVENT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND LATER TONIGHT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 50 MPH
(RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING). THE SHORT TERM HIGH RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) ALL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 4 PM CDT. FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (BETWEEN 200 AND 700 J/KG
CAPE DEPENDING WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT) TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT ENHANCED UPDRAFTS...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA
(MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
VERY IMPRESSIVE STEEP PRESSURE RISES ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
WITH PRESSURE RISES AROUND 8 OR 9 MB/3HR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
MIXING DOWN WINDS ALOFT...STRONG WINDS AROUND 40 MPH APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEREFORE
A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND NOT AS MILD BUT GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL.
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME AT 500MB WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIRLY
REGULAR PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERY
PERIODS. AFTER WEDNESDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT 500MB CENTRAL
CANADIAN LOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL DISSIPATE KMOT-KBIS BY MID
MORNING RESULTING IN VFR. OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE REGION.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST
AFTER 3 PM IMPACTING KDIK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
25 MPH. THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM MDT. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
DRY LIGHTNING AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. ANY FIRES
COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY AND SHOW ERRATIC BEHAVIOR. DANGEROUS BURNING
CONDITIONS WILL WILL EXIST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002>004-
010>012-019>022-034>036-046-047-050.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7
AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ031-032-040-041-043-044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 281154
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
654 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH THIS UPDATE WILL REFINE THE FOG AREA. CLOUDS ARE FOG ARE
ERODING FROM THE EAST. BY MID MORNING MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND FOG
SHOULD BE GONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SEVERAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM RANGING FROM
FOG...TO THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS.

THIS MORNING WE START OUT WITH FOG ACROSS THE JAMES AND MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEYS. SOME LOCATIONS WERE ALSO EXPERIENCING LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOG AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS WINDS INCREASE AND
SHIFT FROM AN EAST OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO DUE SOUTH...FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS RISE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. WHILE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MAIN WIND EVENT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND LATER TONIGHT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 50 MPH
(RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING). THE SHORT TERM HIGH RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) ALL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 4 PM CDT. FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (BETWEEN 200 AND 700 J/KG
CAPE DEPENDING WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT) TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT ENHANCED UPDRAFTS...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA
(MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
VERY IMPRESSIVE STEEP PRESSURE RISES ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
WITH PRESSURE RISES AROUND 8 OR 9 MB/3HR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
MIXING DOWN WINDS ALOFT...STRONG WINDS AROUND 40 MPH APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEREFORE
A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND NOT AS MILD BUT GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL.
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME AT 500MB WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIRLY
REGULAR PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERY
PERIODS. AFTER WEDNESDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT 500MB CENTRAL
CANADIAN LOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL DISSIPATE KMOT-KBIS BY MID
MORNING RESULTING IN VFR. OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE REGION.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST
AFTER 3 PM IMPACTING KDIK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
25 MPH. THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM MDT. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
DRY LIGHTNING AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. ANY FIRES
COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY AND SHOW ERRATIC BEHAVIOR. DANGEROUS BURNING
CONDITIONS WILL WILL EXIST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002>004-
010>012-019>022-034>036-046-047-050.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7
AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ031-032-040-041-043-044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 281154
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
654 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH THIS UPDATE WILL REFINE THE FOG AREA. CLOUDS ARE FOG ARE
ERODING FROM THE EAST. BY MID MORNING MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND FOG
SHOULD BE GONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SEVERAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM RANGING FROM
FOG...TO THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS.

THIS MORNING WE START OUT WITH FOG ACROSS THE JAMES AND MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEYS. SOME LOCATIONS WERE ALSO EXPERIENCING LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOG AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS WINDS INCREASE AND
SHIFT FROM AN EAST OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO DUE SOUTH...FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS RISE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. WHILE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MAIN WIND EVENT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND LATER TONIGHT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 50 MPH
(RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING). THE SHORT TERM HIGH RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) ALL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 4 PM CDT. FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (BETWEEN 200 AND 700 J/KG
CAPE DEPENDING WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT) TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT ENHANCED UPDRAFTS...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA
(MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
VERY IMPRESSIVE STEEP PRESSURE RISES ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
WITH PRESSURE RISES AROUND 8 OR 9 MB/3HR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
MIXING DOWN WINDS ALOFT...STRONG WINDS AROUND 40 MPH APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEREFORE
A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND NOT AS MILD BUT GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL.
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME AT 500MB WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIRLY
REGULAR PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERY
PERIODS. AFTER WEDNESDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT 500MB CENTRAL
CANADIAN LOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL DISSIPATE KMOT-KBIS BY MID
MORNING RESULTING IN VFR. OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE REGION.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST
AFTER 3 PM IMPACTING KDIK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
25 MPH. THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM MDT. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
DRY LIGHTNING AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. ANY FIRES
COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY AND SHOW ERRATIC BEHAVIOR. DANGEROUS BURNING
CONDITIONS WILL WILL EXIST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002>004-
010>012-019>022-034>036-046-047-050.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7
AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ031-032-040-041-043-044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 281154
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
654 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH THIS UPDATE WILL REFINE THE FOG AREA. CLOUDS ARE FOG ARE
ERODING FROM THE EAST. BY MID MORNING MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND FOG
SHOULD BE GONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SEVERAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM RANGING FROM
FOG...TO THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS.

THIS MORNING WE START OUT WITH FOG ACROSS THE JAMES AND MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEYS. SOME LOCATIONS WERE ALSO EXPERIENCING LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOG AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS WINDS INCREASE AND
SHIFT FROM AN EAST OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO DUE SOUTH...FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS RISE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. WHILE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MAIN WIND EVENT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND LATER TONIGHT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 50 MPH
(RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING). THE SHORT TERM HIGH RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) ALL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 4 PM CDT. FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (BETWEEN 200 AND 700 J/KG
CAPE DEPENDING WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT) TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT ENHANCED UPDRAFTS...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA
(MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
VERY IMPRESSIVE STEEP PRESSURE RISES ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
WITH PRESSURE RISES AROUND 8 OR 9 MB/3HR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
MIXING DOWN WINDS ALOFT...STRONG WINDS AROUND 40 MPH APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEREFORE
A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND NOT AS MILD BUT GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL.
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME AT 500MB WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIRLY
REGULAR PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERY
PERIODS. AFTER WEDNESDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT 500MB CENTRAL
CANADIAN LOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WILL DISSIPATE KMOT-KBIS BY MID
MORNING RESULTING IN VFR. OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE REGION.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST
AFTER 3 PM IMPACTING KDIK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
25 MPH. THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM MDT. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
DRY LIGHTNING AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. ANY FIRES
COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY AND SHOW ERRATIC BEHAVIOR. DANGEROUS BURNING
CONDITIONS WILL WILL EXIST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002>004-
010>012-019>022-034>036-046-047-050.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7
AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ031-032-040-041-043-044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 280948
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
448 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SEVERAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM RANGING FROM
FOG...TO THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS.

THIS MORNING WE START OUT WITH FOG ACROSS THE JAMES AND MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEYS. SOME LOCATIONS WERE ALSO EXPERIENCING LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOG AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS WINDS INCREASE AND
SHIFT FROM AN EAST OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO DUE SOUTH...FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS RISE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. WHILE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MAIN WIND EVENT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND LATER TONIGHT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 50 MPH
(RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING). THE SHORT TERM HIGH RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) ALL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 4 PM CDT. FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (BETWEEN 200 AND 700 J/KG
CAPE DEPENDING WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT) TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT ENHANCED UPDRAFTS...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA
(MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
VERY IMPRESSIVE STEEP PRESSURE RISES ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
WITH PRESSURE RISES AROUND 8 OR 9 MB/3HR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
MIXING DOWN WINDS ALOFT...STRONG WINDS AROUND 40 MPH APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEREFORE
A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND NOT AS MILD BUT GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL.
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME AT 500MB WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIRLY
REGULAR PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERY
PERIODS. AFTER WEDNESDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT 500MB CENTRAL
CANADIAN LOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. STRATUS/FOG ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO KBIS AND KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
25 MPH. THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM MDT. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
DRY LIGHTNING AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. ANY FIRES
COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY AND SHOW ERRATIC BEHAVIOR. DANGEROUS BURNING
CONDITIONS WILL WILL EXIST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...WAA









000
FXUS63 KBIS 280530
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1230 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE AND FOG FORECAST
FOR THIS UPDATE.

LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL LAST THROUGH ABOUT 8
AM CDT AND WILL SPREAD TO JUST WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY AS MANY WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES WERE
REPORTING FOG.

UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WERE FALLING A BIT MORE THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS ACROSS THE WEST. THEREFORE...LOWERED OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. STRATUS/FOG ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO KBIS AND KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AJ








000
FXUS63 KBIS 280530
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1230 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE AND FOG FORECAST
FOR THIS UPDATE.

LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL LAST THROUGH ABOUT 8
AM CDT AND WILL SPREAD TO JUST WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY AS MANY WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES WERE
REPORTING FOG.

UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WERE FALLING A BIT MORE THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS ACROSS THE WEST. THEREFORE...LOWERED OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. STRATUS/FOG ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO KBIS AND KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 280530
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1230 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE AND FOG FORECAST
FOR THIS UPDATE.

LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL LAST THROUGH ABOUT 8
AM CDT AND WILL SPREAD TO JUST WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY AS MANY WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES WERE
REPORTING FOG.

UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WERE FALLING A BIT MORE THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS ACROSS THE WEST. THEREFORE...LOWERED OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. STRATUS/FOG ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO KBIS AND KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 280530
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1230 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE AND FOG FORECAST
FOR THIS UPDATE.

LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL LAST THROUGH ABOUT 8
AM CDT AND WILL SPREAD TO JUST WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY AS MANY WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES WERE
REPORTING FOG.

UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WERE FALLING A BIT MORE THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS ACROSS THE WEST. THEREFORE...LOWERED OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. STRATUS/FOG ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO KBIS AND KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AJ








000
FXUS63 KBIS 280240 CCA
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
STRATUS/FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 03 UTC WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO KBIS AND
KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD











000
FXUS63 KBIS 280240 CCA
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
STRATUS/FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 03 UTC WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO KBIS AND
KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD












000
FXUS63 KBIS 280236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
STRATUS/FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 03 UTC WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO KBIS AND
KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD










000
FXUS63 KBIS 280236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
STRATUS/FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 03 UTC WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO KBIS AND
KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD









000
FXUS63 KBIS 280236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
STRATUS/FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 03 UTC WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO KBIS AND
KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD









000
FXUS63 KBIS 280236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
STRATUS/FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 03 UTC WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO KBIS AND
KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD










000
FXUS63 KBIS 272337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL PERSIST AT KJMS
THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. STRATUS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 23 UTC IS FORECAST TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...POTENTIALLY INTO KBIS AND KMOT.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 272337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL PERSIST AT KJMS
THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. STRATUS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 23 UTC IS FORECAST TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...POTENTIALLY INTO KBIS AND KMOT.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 272337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL PERSIST AT KJMS
THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. STRATUS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 23 UTC IS FORECAST TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...POTENTIALLY INTO KBIS AND KMOT.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 272337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL PERSIST AT KJMS
THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. STRATUS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 23 UTC IS FORECAST TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...POTENTIALLY INTO KBIS AND KMOT.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 272045
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR IN SN CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
LOCATIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BRINGING IFR VIS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION IT IN THE
KMOT TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON KBIS AND KISN AS
FG MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CHANCES SPREAD
SOUTH AND WEST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 272045
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR IN SN CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
LOCATIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BRINGING IFR VIS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION IT IN THE
KMOT TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON KBIS AND KISN AS
FG MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CHANCES SPREAD
SOUTH AND WEST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS










000
FXUS63 KBIS 272045
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR IN SN CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
LOCATIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BRINGING IFR VIS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION IT IN THE
KMOT TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON KBIS AND KISN AS
FG MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CHANCES SPREAD
SOUTH AND WEST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 272045
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR IN SN CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
LOCATIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BRINGING IFR VIS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION IT IN THE
KMOT TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON KBIS AND KISN AS
FG MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CHANCES SPREAD
SOUTH AND WEST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS










000
FXUS63 KBIS 271735
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST WORKING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TRIMMED OFF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS AS IT MOVES OFF A
BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AS WARM FRONT MOVES IN...THOUGH
SOME CENTRAL PARTS MAY BE A BIT MORE RELUCTANT TO WARM UP AFTER A
BIT OF FRESH SNOWFALL...SO HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE
OVER THESE AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WARM FRONT
STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT AS EXPECT SNOW TO HOLD
TOGETHER AND WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH A
SOME RAIN MIXING IN AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR IN SN CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
LOCATIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BRINGING IFR VIS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION IT IN THE
KMOT TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON KBIS AND KISN AS
FG MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CHANCES SPREAD
SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271735
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST WORKING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TRIMMED OFF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS AS IT MOVES OFF A
BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AS WARM FRONT MOVES IN...THOUGH
SOME CENTRAL PARTS MAY BE A BIT MORE RELUCTANT TO WARM UP AFTER A
BIT OF FRESH SNOWFALL...SO HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE
OVER THESE AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WARM FRONT
STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT AS EXPECT SNOW TO HOLD
TOGETHER AND WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH A
SOME RAIN MIXING IN AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR IN SN CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
LOCATIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BRINGING IFR VIS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION IT IN THE
KMOT TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON KBIS AND KISN AS
FG MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CHANCES SPREAD
SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 271735
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST WORKING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TRIMMED OFF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS AS IT MOVES OFF A
BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AS WARM FRONT MOVES IN...THOUGH
SOME CENTRAL PARTS MAY BE A BIT MORE RELUCTANT TO WARM UP AFTER A
BIT OF FRESH SNOWFALL...SO HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE
OVER THESE AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WARM FRONT
STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT AS EXPECT SNOW TO HOLD
TOGETHER AND WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH A
SOME RAIN MIXING IN AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR IN SN CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
LOCATIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BRINGING IFR VIS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION IT IN THE
KMOT TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON KBIS AND KISN AS
FG MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CHANCES SPREAD
SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 271735
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST WORKING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TRIMMED OFF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS AS IT MOVES OFF A
BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AS WARM FRONT MOVES IN...THOUGH
SOME CENTRAL PARTS MAY BE A BIT MORE RELUCTANT TO WARM UP AFTER A
BIT OF FRESH SNOWFALL...SO HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE
OVER THESE AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WARM FRONT
STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT AS EXPECT SNOW TO HOLD
TOGETHER AND WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH A
SOME RAIN MIXING IN AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR IN SN CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
LOCATIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BRINGING IFR VIS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION IT IN THE
KMOT TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON KBIS AND KISN AS
FG MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CHANCES SPREAD
SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271402
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
902 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WARM FRONT
STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT AS EXPECT SNOW TO HOLD
TOGETHER AND WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH A
SOME RAIN MIXING IN AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS. A
NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MAY ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...BUT
THIS SHOULD LAST JUST A FEW HOURS AND WILL NOT ADD TO TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ








000
FXUS63 KBIS 271402
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
902 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WARM FRONT
STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT AS EXPECT SNOW TO HOLD
TOGETHER AND WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH A
SOME RAIN MIXING IN AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS. A
NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MAY ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...BUT
THIS SHOULD LAST JUST A FEW HOURS AND WILL NOT ADD TO TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271402
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
902 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WARM FRONT
STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT AS EXPECT SNOW TO HOLD
TOGETHER AND WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH A
SOME RAIN MIXING IN AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS. A
NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MAY ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...BUT
THIS SHOULD LAST JUST A FEW HOURS AND WILL NOT ADD TO TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271402
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
902 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WARM FRONT
STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT AS EXPECT SNOW TO HOLD
TOGETHER AND WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH A
SOME RAIN MIXING IN AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS. A
NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MAY ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...BUT
THIS SHOULD LAST JUST A FEW HOURS AND WILL NOT ADD TO TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ








000
FXUS63 KBIS 271137
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS. A
NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MAY ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...BUT
THIS SHOULD LAST JUST A FEW HOURS AND WILL NOT ADD TO TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ








000
FXUS63 KBIS 271137
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS. A
NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MAY ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...BUT
THIS SHOULD LAST JUST A FEW HOURS AND WILL NOT ADD TO TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271137
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS. A
NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MAY ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...BUT
THIS SHOULD LAST JUST A FEW HOURS AND WILL NOT ADD TO TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271137
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS. A
NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MAY ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...BUT
THIS SHOULD LAST JUST A FEW HOURS AND WILL NOT ADD TO TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ








000
FXUS63 KBIS 270935
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06 FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...AND
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ









000
FXUS63 KBIS 270539
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS.

LIGHT SNOW IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IS EVAPORATING INITIAL
SNOWFALL PICKED UP BY RADAR. EVENTUALLY SATURATION WILL
OCCUR...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE
GROUND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE 00 UTC NAM AND 23-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE DELAYED THE
ONSET OF SNOW...DECREASED ITS COVERAGE AND SHIFTED THE AXIS CLOSER
TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 12 UTC. GIVEN RADAR AND SURFACE TRENDS THROUGH 03
UTC...THESE SOLUTIONS SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND WILL BLEND THE FORECAST
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY OF A BAND OF
PREDOMINATELY SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY REMAINS ON TRACK AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 18
UTC GUIDANCE SUITE. THERE IS STILL A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND THROUGH THE
EVENT...JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT...A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH INTO FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE FAR WEST...CLOSER
TO THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT.

THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
THE 290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES FRIDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING
DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW INITIALLY BUT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL INCREASE
ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ND. RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WEST TO AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. AND MAYBE UP TO TWO OVER THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION: GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A
QUICK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO
THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST BEHIND IT. 20 TO 30 MPH WEST WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD/ALONG/BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 70S FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 55 TO
60 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT |238 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...AND
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 270539
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS.

LIGHT SNOW IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IS EVAPORATING INITIAL
SNOWFALL PICKED UP BY RADAR. EVENTUALLY SATURATION WILL
OCCUR...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE
GROUND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE 00 UTC NAM AND 23-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE DELAYED THE
ONSET OF SNOW...DECREASED ITS COVERAGE AND SHIFTED THE AXIS CLOSER
TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 12 UTC. GIVEN RADAR AND SURFACE TRENDS THROUGH 03
UTC...THESE SOLUTIONS SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND WILL BLEND THE FORECAST
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY OF A BAND OF
PREDOMINATELY SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY REMAINS ON TRACK AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 18
UTC GUIDANCE SUITE. THERE IS STILL A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND THROUGH THE
EVENT...JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT...A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH INTO FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE FAR WEST...CLOSER
TO THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT.

THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
THE 290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES FRIDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING
DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW INITIALLY BUT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL INCREASE
ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ND. RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WEST TO AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. AND MAYBE UP TO TWO OVER THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION: GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A
QUICK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO
THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST BEHIND IT. 20 TO 30 MPH WEST WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD/ALONG/BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 70S FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 55 TO
60 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT |238 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...AND
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 270539
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS.

LIGHT SNOW IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IS EVAPORATING INITIAL
SNOWFALL PICKED UP BY RADAR. EVENTUALLY SATURATION WILL
OCCUR...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE
GROUND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE 00 UTC NAM AND 23-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE DELAYED THE
ONSET OF SNOW...DECREASED ITS COVERAGE AND SHIFTED THE AXIS CLOSER
TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 12 UTC. GIVEN RADAR AND SURFACE TRENDS THROUGH 03
UTC...THESE SOLUTIONS SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND WILL BLEND THE FORECAST
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY OF A BAND OF
PREDOMINATELY SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY REMAINS ON TRACK AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 18
UTC GUIDANCE SUITE. THERE IS STILL A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND THROUGH THE
EVENT...JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT...A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH INTO FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE FAR WEST...CLOSER
TO THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT.

THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
THE 290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES FRIDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING
DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW INITIALLY BUT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL INCREASE
ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ND. RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WEST TO AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. AND MAYBE UP TO TWO OVER THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION: GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A
QUICK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO
THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST BEHIND IT. 20 TO 30 MPH WEST WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD/ALONG/BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 70S FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 55 TO
60 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT |238 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...AND
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AJ








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