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000
FXUS64 KBMX 040004
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
704 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA.  FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT LOWER RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
KEPT SMALL POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE FRONT HAS BECOME VERY DIFFUSE AND IS NOT
DISTINGUISHABLE IN SATELLITE OR RADAR IMAGERY AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE
BECOME NORTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE AIR COLUMN BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB BECOMING SATURATED BY 03Z AS
LIFT INCREASES ALONG DEEPENING WEDGE OF COOLER AIR BEHIND SURFACE
FRONT. DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE THE CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WE WON`T SEE ANY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY
IN THE NORTH. MODELS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME TSTORMS...AND
WITH 500MB TEMPS APPROACHING -20 C ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SOME SMALL HAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.

A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
END OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE 40S. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND AS SFC RIDGING DOMINATES. TEMPS WILL
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 80S AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES INCREASE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE TUE/WED
TIME FRAME.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ALL TERMINAL CIGS ARE AT VFR...WITH CU DIMINISHING. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SPLIT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLOUD LAYER AROUND 3KFT DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING. LOOKING AT RAOB DATA COMING IN FROM THE EVENING
LAUNCH...THERES NOT A SIGNIFICANT MOIST LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
WITH NO ORGANIZED LIFT AS WELL...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER PROFILE
SOLUTION AND NOT INCLUDE MVFR CIGS IN THE NEAR TERM. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT...PREVENTING WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED...PRIMARILY NEAR MGM AND TOI.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND BECOME GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A CU FIELD TO DEVELOP WITH CIGS AT VFR.
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...LOWER CIGS WILL APPROACH BHM AND TCL
FROM THE NORTH...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE AROUND OR AFTER 05/00Z.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE FEW SHOWERS ON RADAR AT THE MOMENT IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTH ALABAMA TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PROVIDE A BRIEF 3 TO 6
HOUR WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-85.
WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  73  46  66  44 /  10  30  30  10   0
ANNISTON    52  73  49  66  45 /  10  20  30  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  53  73  50  68  47 /  10  20  30   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  53  75  50  71  48 /  10  10  20   0   0
CALERA      54  73  51  69  48 /  10  10  20   0   0
AUBURN      56  73  52  67  48 /  10  10  20   0   0
MONTGOMERY  56  76  54  72  49 /  10   0  10   0   0
TROY        56  76  53  71  48 /  20   0  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 032003
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
303 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA.  FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT LOWER RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
KEPT SMALL POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE FRONT HAS BECOME VERY DIFFUSE AND IS NOT
DISTINGUISHABLE IN SATELLITE OR RADAR IMAGERY AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE
BECOME NORTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE AIR COLUMN BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB BECOMING SATURATED BY 03Z AS
LIFT INCREASES ALONG DEEPENING WEDGE OF COOLER AIR BEHIND SURFACE
FRONT. DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE THE CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WE WON`T SEE ANY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY
IN THE NORTH. MODELS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME TSTORMS...AND
WITH 500MB TEMPS APPROACHING -20 C ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SOME SMALL HAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.

A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
END OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE 40S. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND AS SFC RIDGING DOMINATES. TEMPS WILL
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 80S AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES INCREASE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE TUE/WED
TIME FRAME.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A COOL FRONT WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A DEMOPOLIS TO ALEXANDER
CITY LINE. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...SCT SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP THRU 23Z...AND THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT...CIGS WERE RUNNING ARND
3500 FEET AGL...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT AFTER 21Z WITH SCT-BKN
CONDS THRU 03Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 03Z DUE TO
MOIST CONDS BELOW 5000 FEET AND LIFT ALONG COOL FRONT. BEST CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA...INCLUDING KMGM AND
KTOI. MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z
WITH CLEAR SKIES AT ALL SITES BY 15Z.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE FEW SHOWERS ON RADAR AT THE MOMENT IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTH ALABAMA TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PROVIDE A BRIEF 3 TO 6
HOUR WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-85.
WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  73  46  66  44 /  10  30  30  10   0
ANNISTON    52  73  49  66  45 /  10  20  30  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  53  73  50  68  47 /  10  20  30   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  53  75  50  71  48 /  10  10  20   0   0
CALERA      54  73  51  69  48 /  10  10  20   0   0
AUBURN      56  73  52  67  48 /  10  10  20   0   0
MONTGOMERY  56  76  54  72  49 /  10   0  10   0   0
TROY        56  76  53  71  48 /  20   0  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 031804
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
104 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A ANALYSIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
DEPICTS A SURFACE COOL FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...BUT ACTIVITY HAS NOT BEEN FOCUSED ALONG ANY BOUNDARY.
EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE
60S. THE SURFACE FRONT IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT WHERE NO RAIN IS FORECAST. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A COOL FRONT WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A DEMOPOLIS TO ALEXANDER
CITY LINE. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...SCT SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP THRU 23Z...AND THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT...CIGS WERE RUNNING ARND
3500 FEET AGL...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT AFTER 21Z WITH SCT-BKN
CONDS THRU 03Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 03Z DUE TO
MOIST CONDS BELOW 5000 FEET AND LIFT ALONG COOL FRONT. BEST CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA...INCLUDING KMGM AND
KTOI. MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z
WITH CLEAR SKIES AT ALL SITES BY 15Z.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20.
THE RAIN WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTH ALABAMA TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PROVIDE A BRIEF 3 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-85. WARMING
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  73  46  68  44 /  10  20  40   0   0
ANNISTON    53  73  47  67  45 /  10  10  40   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  54  73  49  70  47 /  10  10  40   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  52  75  48  72  48 /  10  10  20   0   0
CALERA      54  73  50  70  48 /  10  10  20   0   0
AUBURN      56  73  51  69  48 /  10   0  20   0   0
MONTGOMERY  57  76  52  73  49 /  10  10  10   0   0
TROY        56  76  53  72  48 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 031804
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
104 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A ANALYSIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
DEPICTS A SURFACE COOL FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...BUT ACTIVITY HAS NOT BEEN FOCUSED ALONG ANY BOUNDARY.
EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE
60S. THE SURFACE FRONT IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT WHERE NO RAIN IS FORECAST. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A COOL FRONT WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A DEMOPOLIS TO ALEXANDER
CITY LINE. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...SCT SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP THRU 23Z...AND THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT...CIGS WERE RUNNING ARND
3500 FEET AGL...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT AFTER 21Z WITH SCT-BKN
CONDS THRU 03Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 03Z DUE TO
MOIST CONDS BELOW 5000 FEET AND LIFT ALONG COOL FRONT. BEST CHANCE
FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA...INCLUDING KMGM AND
KTOI. MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z
WITH CLEAR SKIES AT ALL SITES BY 15Z.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20.
THE RAIN WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTH ALABAMA TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PROVIDE A BRIEF 3 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-85. WARMING
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  73  46  68  44 /  10  20  40   0   0
ANNISTON    53  73  47  67  45 /  10  10  40   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  54  73  49  70  47 /  10  10  40   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  52  75  48  72  48 /  10  10  20   0   0
CALERA      54  73  50  70  48 /  10  10  20   0   0
AUBURN      56  73  51  69  48 /  10   0  20   0   0
MONTGOMERY  57  76  52  73  49 /  10  10  10   0   0
TROY        56  76  53  72  48 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 031640
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A ANALYSIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
DEPICTS A SURFACE COOL FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...BUT ACTIVITY HAS NOT BEEN FOCUSED ALONG ANY BOUNDARY.
EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE
60S. THE SURFACE FRONT IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT WHERE NO RAIN IS FORECAST. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW STRATUS...LOW CLOUD DECK IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES NEAR I-85 CORRIDOR
WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. NORTHERN COUNTIES
WILL BEGIN TO SEE HIGHER CEILINGS AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
APPROACH OF MID MORNING AND NOON TIME FRAME AS WINDS PICK UP AND
BEGIN TO MIX IN THE DRY AIR ALOFT. RAIN SHOWERS AND VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWARD
DURING THE MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN FOR ALL COUNTIES ONCE THE EVENING BEGINS AND ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS

92


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20.
THE RAIN WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTH ALABAMA TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PROVIDE A BRIEF 3 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-85. WARMING
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
SHORT TERM...

OVERNIGHT SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
I-85 TO MONTGOMERY AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS FROM THE PREVIOUS BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN ON THE
RADAR IN CALHOUN AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THE POSITIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING EASTWARD AS THE
UPPER JET`S MOMENTUM EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTHWARD. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ADDED IN THIS SHOULD
REINVIGORATE THE COLD FRONT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAINLY ALONG THE I-85
CORRIDOR AND FURTHER SOUTH. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PUT IN
AS WELL... AS A MAINLY MODEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
IS PRESENT. AS THE EVENING APPROACHES BOTH SHEAR AND CAPE
DECREASES QUICKLY... CHANGING CHANCE OF T-STORMS TO RAIN SHOWERS
AND EVENTUALLY ALLOWING CLEARING CONDITIONS TO BEGIN BY THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. DRY AIR AND A SLIGHT CONVERGENT UPPER JET PATTERN
WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TOMORROW MORNING CALM...

92

LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AS WE WORK INTO WEDNESDAY THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER. WITH THAT SAID THOUGH WE WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED A TOUCH AS THIS HAS NOW BEEN 3 RUNS THAT
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS PROGRESSION. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 40 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO PUSH THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN ON
THURSDAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  49  73  46  68 /  20  10  20  40   0
ANNISTON    73  53  73  47  67 /  20  10  10  40   0
BIRMINGHAM  73  54  73  49  70 /  20  10  10  40   0
TUSCALOOSA  76  52  75  48  72 /  20  10  10  20   0
CALERA      74  54  73  50  70 /  20  10  10  20   0
AUBURN      76  56  73  51  69 /  40  10   0  20   0
MONTGOMERY  78  57  76  52  73 /  40  10  10  10   0
TROY        76  56  76  53  72 /  50  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 031640
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A ANALYSIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
DEPICTS A SURFACE COOL FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...BUT ACTIVITY HAS NOT BEEN FOCUSED ALONG ANY BOUNDARY.
EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE
60S. THE SURFACE FRONT IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT WHERE NO RAIN IS FORECAST. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW STRATUS...LOW CLOUD DECK IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES NEAR I-85 CORRIDOR
WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. NORTHERN COUNTIES
WILL BEGIN TO SEE HIGHER CEILINGS AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
APPROACH OF MID MORNING AND NOON TIME FRAME AS WINDS PICK UP AND
BEGIN TO MIX IN THE DRY AIR ALOFT. RAIN SHOWERS AND VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWARD
DURING THE MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN FOR ALL COUNTIES ONCE THE EVENING BEGINS AND ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS

92


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20.
THE RAIN WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTH ALABAMA TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PROVIDE A BRIEF 3 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-85. WARMING
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
SHORT TERM...

OVERNIGHT SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
I-85 TO MONTGOMERY AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS FROM THE PREVIOUS BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN ON THE
RADAR IN CALHOUN AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THE POSITIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING EASTWARD AS THE
UPPER JET`S MOMENTUM EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTHWARD. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ADDED IN THIS SHOULD
REINVIGORATE THE COLD FRONT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAINLY ALONG THE I-85
CORRIDOR AND FURTHER SOUTH. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PUT IN
AS WELL... AS A MAINLY MODEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
IS PRESENT. AS THE EVENING APPROACHES BOTH SHEAR AND CAPE
DECREASES QUICKLY... CHANGING CHANCE OF T-STORMS TO RAIN SHOWERS
AND EVENTUALLY ALLOWING CLEARING CONDITIONS TO BEGIN BY THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. DRY AIR AND A SLIGHT CONVERGENT UPPER JET PATTERN
WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TOMORROW MORNING CALM...

92

LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AS WE WORK INTO WEDNESDAY THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER. WITH THAT SAID THOUGH WE WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED A TOUCH AS THIS HAS NOW BEEN 3 RUNS THAT
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS PROGRESSION. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 40 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO PUSH THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN ON
THURSDAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  49  73  46  68 /  20  10  20  40   0
ANNISTON    73  53  73  47  67 /  20  10  10  40   0
BIRMINGHAM  73  54  73  49  70 /  20  10  10  40   0
TUSCALOOSA  76  52  75  48  72 /  20  10  10  20   0
CALERA      74  54  73  50  70 /  20  10  10  20   0
AUBURN      76  56  73  51  69 /  40  10   0  20   0
MONTGOMERY  78  57  76  52  73 /  40  10  10  10   0
TROY        76  56  76  53  72 /  50  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 031135
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
635 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...

OVERNIGHT SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
I-85 TO MONTGOMERY AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS FROM THE PREVIOUS BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN ON THE
RADAR IN CALHOUN AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THE POSITIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING EASTWARD AS THE
UPPER JET`S MOMENTUM EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTHWARD. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ADDED IN THIS SHOULD
REINVIGORATE THE COLD FRONT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAINLY ALONG THE I-85
CORRIDOR AND FURTHER SOUTH. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PUT IN
AS WELL... AS A MAINLY MODEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
IS PRESENT. AS THE EVENING APPROACHES BOTH SHEAR AND CAPE
DECREASES QUICKLY... CHANGING CHANCE OF T-STORMS TO RAIN SHOWERS
AND EVENTUALLY ALLOWING CLEARING CONDITIONS TO BEGIN BY THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. DRY AIR AND A SLIGHT CONVERGENT UPPER JET PATTERN
WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TOMORROW MORNING CALM...

92

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AS WE WORK INTO WEDNESDAY THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER. WITH THAT SAID THOUGH WE WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED A TOUCH AS THIS HAS NOW BEEN 3 RUNS THAT
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS PROGRESSION. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 40 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO PUSH THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN ON
THURSDAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW STRATUS...LOW CLOUD DECK IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES NEAR I-85 CORRIDOR
WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. NORTHERN COUNTIES
WILL BEGIN TO SEE HIGHER CEILINGS AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
APPROACH OF MID MORNING AND NOON TIME FRAME AS WINDS PICK UP AND
BEGIN TO MIX IN THE DRY AIR ALOFT. RAIN SHOWERS AND VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWARD
DURING THE MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN FOR ALL COUNTIES ONCE THE EVENING BEGINS AND ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS

92

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20.
THE RAIN WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTH ALABAMA TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PROVIDE A BRIEF 3 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-85. WARMING
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  49  73  46  68 /  20  10  20  40   0
ANNISTON    77  53  73  47  67 /  20  10  10  40   0
BIRMINGHAM  76  54  73  49  70 /  20  10  10  40   0
TUSCALOOSA  77  52  75  48  72 /  20  10  10  20   0
CALERA      76  54  73  50  70 /  20  10  10  20   0
AUBURN      76  56  73  51  69 /  50  20  10  20   0
MONTGOMERY  79  57  76  52  73 /  50  20  10  10   0
TROY        79  56  76  53  72 /  60  20   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 030931
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
431 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...

OVERNIGHT SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
I-85 TO MONTGOMERY AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS FROM THE PREVIOUS BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN ON THE
RADAR IN CALHOUN AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THE POSITIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING EASTWARD AS THE
UPPER JET`S MOMENTUM EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTHWARD. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ADDED IN THIS SHOULD
REINVIGORATE THE COLD FRONT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAINLY ALONG THE I-85
CORRIDOR AND FURTHER SOUTH. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PUT IN
AS WELL... AS A MAINLY MODEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
IS PRESENT. AS THE EVENING APPROACHES BOTH SHEAR AND CAPE
DECREASES QUICKLY... CHANGING CHANCE OF T-STORMS TO RAIN SHOWERS
AND EVENTUALLY ALLOWING CLEARING CONDITIONS TO BEGIN BY THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. DRY AIR AND A SLIGHT CONVERGENT UPPER JET PATTERN
WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TOMORROW MORNING CALM...

92

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AS WE WORK INTO WEDNESDAY THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER. WITH THAT SAID THOUGH WE WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED A TOUCH AS THIS HAS NOW BEEN 3 RUNS THAT
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS PROGRESSION. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 40 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO PUSH THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN ON
THURSDAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG IT. THESE SHOWERS WILL CAUSE SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN CIGS/VIS BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT IFR CIGS TO BECOME
PREVAILING TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES OUT.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20.
THE RAIN WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTH ALABAMA TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PROVIDE A BRIEF 3 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-85. WARMING
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  49  73  46  68 /  20  10  20  40   0
ANNISTON    77  53  73  47  67 /  20  10  10  40   0
BIRMINGHAM  76  54  73  49  70 /  20  10  10  40   0
TUSCALOOSA  77  52  75  48  72 /  20  10  10  20   0
CALERA      76  54  73  50  70 /  20  10  10  20   0
AUBURN      76  56  73  51  69 /  50  20  10  20   0
MONTGOMERY  79  57  76  52  73 /  50  20  10  10   0
TROY        79  56  76  53  72 /  60  20   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 030931
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
431 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...

OVERNIGHT SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
I-85 TO MONTGOMERY AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS FROM THE PREVIOUS BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN ON THE
RADAR IN CALHOUN AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THE POSITIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING EASTWARD AS THE
UPPER JET`S MOMENTUM EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTHWARD. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ADDED IN THIS SHOULD
REINVIGORATE THE COLD FRONT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAINLY ALONG THE I-85
CORRIDOR AND FURTHER SOUTH. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PUT IN
AS WELL... AS A MAINLY MODEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
IS PRESENT. AS THE EVENING APPROACHES BOTH SHEAR AND CAPE
DECREASES QUICKLY... CHANGING CHANCE OF T-STORMS TO RAIN SHOWERS
AND EVENTUALLY ALLOWING CLEARING CONDITIONS TO BEGIN BY THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. DRY AIR AND A SLIGHT CONVERGENT UPPER JET PATTERN
WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TOMORROW MORNING CALM...

92

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AS WE WORK INTO WEDNESDAY THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER. WITH THAT SAID THOUGH WE WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED A TOUCH AS THIS HAS NOW BEEN 3 RUNS THAT
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS PROGRESSION. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 40 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO PUSH THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN ON
THURSDAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG IT. THESE SHOWERS WILL CAUSE SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN CIGS/VIS BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT IFR CIGS TO BECOME
PREVAILING TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES OUT.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20.
THE RAIN WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTH ALABAMA TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PROVIDE A BRIEF 3 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-85. WARMING
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  49  73  46  68 /  20  10  20  40   0
ANNISTON    77  53  73  47  67 /  20  10  10  40   0
BIRMINGHAM  76  54  73  49  70 /  20  10  10  40   0
TUSCALOOSA  77  52  75  48  72 /  20  10  10  20   0
CALERA      76  54  73  50  70 /  20  10  10  20   0
AUBURN      76  56  73  51  69 /  50  20  10  20   0
MONTGOMERY  79  57  76  52  73 /  50  20  10  10   0
TROY        79  56  76  53  72 /  60  20   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 030504
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1204 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COUPLE FOCUS AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. ONE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...WHERE A TS CLUSTER CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD...WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I85. THE SECOND IS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST...ALONG THE
I59 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD FRONT IS LOCATED.
THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FRONT EXTENDS BACK INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
WHERE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS
OCCURRED AND IS PUSHING INTO PICKENS COUNTY.

HAVE STARTED TO TREND POPS DOWN OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE A
CHANCE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS STILL BACK TO OUR NORTHWEST...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS SOME SUPPORT WITH
RECENT HI RES GUIDANCE. HAVE ALSO ADDED IN PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE
GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS REMAIN AROUND 7 KTS...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG IT. THESE SHOWERS WILL CAUSE SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN CIGS/VIS BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT IFR CIGS TO BECOME
PREVAILING TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES OUT.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...MAINLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. THE RAIN
WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTH ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT IS SURPRISING THE FRONT HAS MADE IT THIS FAR SOUTH
GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE
IT DOWN TO THE I-59 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...AND LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET. AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...THE COOL FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE FRONT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROF IS POSITIVELY TILTED SO THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT WITH
THE FRONT. THE CONVECTION WILL PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000
J/KG...BUT HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS...LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME OF THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S
ON THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA. NO RAIN
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  76  49  74  48 /  50  30  10  10  30
ANNISTON    61  77  53  74  49 /  40  30  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  61  76  53  74  51 /  40  20  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  61  77  51  76  51 /  50  20  10   0  10
CALERA      62  76  53  74  52 /  40  30  10   0  10
AUBURN      64  77  54  74  53 /  40  40  20   0  10
MONTGOMERY  66  80  55  77  54 /  40  40  20   0  10
TROY        66  80  55  77  54 /  40  50  20   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 030504
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1204 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COUPLE FOCUS AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. ONE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...WHERE A TS CLUSTER CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD...WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I85. THE SECOND IS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST...ALONG THE
I59 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD FRONT IS LOCATED.
THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FRONT EXTENDS BACK INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
WHERE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS
OCCURRED AND IS PUSHING INTO PICKENS COUNTY.

HAVE STARTED TO TREND POPS DOWN OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE A
CHANCE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS STILL BACK TO OUR NORTHWEST...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS SOME SUPPORT WITH
RECENT HI RES GUIDANCE. HAVE ALSO ADDED IN PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE
GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS REMAIN AROUND 7 KTS...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG IT. THESE SHOWERS WILL CAUSE SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN CIGS/VIS BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT IFR CIGS TO BECOME
PREVAILING TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES OUT.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...MAINLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. THE RAIN
WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTH ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT IS SURPRISING THE FRONT HAS MADE IT THIS FAR SOUTH
GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE
IT DOWN TO THE I-59 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...AND LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET. AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...THE COOL FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE FRONT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROF IS POSITIVELY TILTED SO THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT WITH
THE FRONT. THE CONVECTION WILL PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000
J/KG...BUT HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS...LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME OF THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S
ON THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA. NO RAIN
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  76  49  74  48 /  50  30  10  10  30
ANNISTON    61  77  53  74  49 /  40  30  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  61  76  53  74  51 /  40  20  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  61  77  51  76  51 /  50  20  10   0  10
CALERA      62  76  53  74  52 /  40  30  10   0  10
AUBURN      64  77  54  74  53 /  40  40  20   0  10
MONTGOMERY  66  80  55  77  54 /  40  40  20   0  10
TROY        66  80  55  77  54 /  40  50  20   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 030240
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
940 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COUPLE FOCUS AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. ONE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...WHERE A TS CLUSTER CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD...WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I85. THE SECOND IS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST...ALONG THE
I59 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD FRONT IS LOCATED.
THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FRONT EXTENDS BACK INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
WHERE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS
OCCURRED AND IS PUSHING INTO PICKENS COUNTY.

HAVE STARTED TO TREND POPS DOWN OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE A
CHANCE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS STILL BACK TO OUR NORTHWEST...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS SOME SUPPORT WITH
RECENT HI RES GUIDANCE. HAVE ALSO ADDED IN PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE
GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS REMAIN AROUND 7 KTS...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS HAS ALMOST CLEARED BHM/EET, IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING ANB/ASN/MGM, AND MAY EVENTUALLY AFFECT TOI AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING. ALSO SEEING SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT NORTHWEST OF BHM/TCL WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED, AND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
BEING REPORTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND THESE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND LOWER FROM MVFR TO IFR AT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER MGM/TOI OVERNIGHT WITH IFR ALSO EXPECTED THERE.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING ON TUESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES
NEAR THE FRONT.

32/DAVIS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...MAINLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. THE RAIN
WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTH ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 651 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT IS SURPRISING THE FRONT HAS MADE IT THIS FAR SOUTH
GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE
IT DOWN TO THE I-59 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...AND LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET. AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...THE COOL FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE FRONT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROF IS POSITIVELY TILTED SO THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT WITH
THE FRONT. THE CONVECTION WILL PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000
J/KG...BUT HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS...LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME OF THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S
ON THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA. NO RAIN
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  76  49  74  48 /  90  30  10  10  30
ANNISTON    61  77  53  74  49 /  70  30  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  61  76  53  74  51 /  50  20  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  61  77  51  76  51 /  40  20  10   0  10
CALERA      62  76  53  74  52 /  50  30  10   0  10
AUBURN      64  77  54  74  53 /  70  40  20   0  10
MONTGOMERY  66  80  55  77  54 /  60  40  20   0  10
TROY        66  80  55  77  54 /  80  50  20   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 030240
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
940 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COUPLE FOCUS AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. ONE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...WHERE A TS CLUSTER CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD...WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I85. THE SECOND IS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST...ALONG THE
I59 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD FRONT IS LOCATED.
THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FRONT EXTENDS BACK INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
WHERE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS
OCCURRED AND IS PUSHING INTO PICKENS COUNTY.

HAVE STARTED TO TREND POPS DOWN OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE A
CHANCE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS STILL BACK TO OUR NORTHWEST...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS SOME SUPPORT WITH
RECENT HI RES GUIDANCE. HAVE ALSO ADDED IN PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE
GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS REMAIN AROUND 7 KTS...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS HAS ALMOST CLEARED BHM/EET, IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING ANB/ASN/MGM, AND MAY EVENTUALLY AFFECT TOI AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING. ALSO SEEING SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT NORTHWEST OF BHM/TCL WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED, AND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
BEING REPORTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND THESE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND LOWER FROM MVFR TO IFR AT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER MGM/TOI OVERNIGHT WITH IFR ALSO EXPECTED THERE.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING ON TUESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES
NEAR THE FRONT.

32/DAVIS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...MAINLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. THE RAIN
WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTH ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 651 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT IS SURPRISING THE FRONT HAS MADE IT THIS FAR SOUTH
GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE
IT DOWN TO THE I-59 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...AND LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET. AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...THE COOL FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE FRONT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROF IS POSITIVELY TILTED SO THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT WITH
THE FRONT. THE CONVECTION WILL PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000
J/KG...BUT HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS...LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME OF THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S
ON THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA. NO RAIN
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  76  49  74  48 /  90  30  10  10  30
ANNISTON    61  77  53  74  49 /  70  30  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  61  76  53  74  51 /  50  20  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  61  77  51  76  51 /  40  20  10   0  10
CALERA      62  76  53  74  52 /  50  30  10   0  10
AUBURN      64  77  54  74  53 /  70  40  20   0  10
MONTGOMERY  66  80  55  77  54 /  60  40  20   0  10
TROY        66  80  55  77  54 /  80  50  20   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 022351
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT IS SURPRISING THE FRONT HAS MADE IT THIS FAR SOUTH
GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE
IT DOWN TO THE I-59 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...AND LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET. AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...THE COOL FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE FRONT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROF IS POSITIVELY TILTED SO THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT WITH
THE FRONT. THE CONVECTION WILL PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000
J/KG...BUT HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS...LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME OF THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S
ON THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA. NO RAIN
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS HAS ALMOST CLEARED BHM/EET, IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING ANB/ASN/MGM, AND MAY EVENTUALLY AFFECT TOI AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING. ALSO SEEING SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT NORTHWEST OF BHM/TCL WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED, AND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
BEING REPORTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND THESE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND LOWER FROM MVFR TO IFR AT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER MGM/TOI OVERNIGHT WITH IFR ALSO EXPECTED THERE.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING ON TUESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES
NEAR THE FRONT.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...MAINLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. THE RAIN
WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTH ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  76  49  74  48 /  60  30  10  10  30
ANNISTON    61  77  53  74  49 /  70  30  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  61  76  53  74  51 /  50  20  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  61  77  51  76  51 /  50  20  10   0  10
CALERA      62  76  53  74  52 /  70  30  10   0  10
AUBURN      64  77  54  74  53 /  90  40  20   0  10
MONTGOMERY  66  80  55  77  54 /  90  40  20   0  10
TROY        66  80  55  77  54 /  90  50  20   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 022050
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
350 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT IS SURPRISING THE FRONT HAS MADE IT THIS FAR SOUTH
GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE
IT DOWN TO THE I-59 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...AND LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET. AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...THE COOL FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE FRONT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROF IS POSITIVELY TILTED SO THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT WITH
THE FRONT. THE CONVECTION WILL PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000
J/KG...BUT HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS...LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME OF THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S
ON THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA. NO RAIN
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BEST SH/TS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN WITH COVERAGE DECREASING
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SE THRU THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SW AROUND 5-10 KTS
THIS AFTN...THEN DECREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE W/NW BEHIND THE
FRONT. ALL MODELS INDICATE LOW STRATUS RETURNING OVERNIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE CIGS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

19


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...MAINLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. THE RAIN
WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTH ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     58  76  49  74  48 /  60  30  10  10  30
ANNISTON    61  77  53  74  49 /  60  30  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  60  76  53  74  51 /  60  20  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  60  77  51  76  51 /  60  20  10   0  10
CALERA      61  76  53  74  52 /  60  30  10   0  10
AUBURN      63  77  54  74  53 /  60  40  20   0  10
MONTGOMERY  65  80  55  77  54 /  60  40  20   0  10
TROY        65  80  55  77  54 /  60  50  20   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 021838
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
138 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT HAS LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST W OF KMSL AND
WILL SLOWLY WORK SE THRU THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE EVENING HOURS.
ALSO A MESOLOW WAS NOTED ACROSS NW AL MOVING EASTWARD...WHICH WAS
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR NW
COUNTIES. AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE IT`S STILL
UNCLEAR AS TO HOW MUCH OVERALL COVERAGE WE WILL SEE THIS
AFTN/EVNG. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS AT SOME POINT
BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z BUT WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

THERE IS AN OVERALL LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND SHEAR...BUT
INSTABILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF
SEVERE IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BEST SH/TS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN WITH COVERAGE DECREASING
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SE THRU THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SW AROUND 5-10 KTS
THIS AFTN...THEN DECREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE W/NW BEHIND THE
FRONT. ALL MODELS INDICATE LOW STRATUS RETURNING OVERNIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE CIGS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND PROVIDE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA.  DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 634 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHT SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO SOME WIND TRICKLING
IN FROM THE GULF...THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT HAS BREACHED NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI... INDUCING A FEW SHOWERS IN ITS NORTHWEST
COUNTIES...THE OVERALL TREND WITH THE OMEGA BLOCK IN PLACE MEANS A
LIKELY CHANCE OF THE COLD FRONT PERSISTING IN THE REGION LONGER
THAN MODELS TEND TO PREDICT...UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
STAGNATE... WITH LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL FURTHER IN THE WEEK...THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL ROUGHLY 9AM
AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL THE PRESSURE TIGHTENS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON A DIURNAL
CYCLE... WITH THE LOW HITTING AROUND SUNRISE... AS LITTLE
SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE IS IN PLACE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES JUST AFTER SUNRISE... WITH
THE MORE MODERATE CHANCES BEGINNING AROUND 14Z-16Z AS THE COLD
FRONT JUST BEGINS TO CREEP PAST THE AL/MS BORDER. AS MENTIONED THE
FRONT WILL LINGER KEEPING RAINFALL AROUND MOST OF THE DAY... A
LIKELY CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS PUT IN MAINLY OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
MODEST SURFACE CAPE ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND SURFACE LAPSE RATES ABOVE
7C/KM. FORTUNATELY NEITHER DEEP SHEAR 0-6KM NOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES LOOKED IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO ADD IN SEVERE ELEMENTS. A FEW
STORMS MAY REACH STRONG CRITERIA, PRODUCING 40 MPH WIND GUSTS.
AFTER 00Z CAPE AND LAPSE RATES DECREASE RAPIDLY... ALLOWING
RAINFALL TO BE THE PREDOMINATE OBSERVED WEATHER THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT.

92

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AS WE WORK INTO TUESDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES AS A COLD FRONT FINISHES IT ROUTE THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. UNTIL IT CLEARS TOTALLY THERE COULD BE SEVERAL
WAVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT SO RAIN CHANCES COULD WIND UP BEING
HIGHER THAN THE ACTUAL FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY OF THE EXTRA
WAVES REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS HAS BEEN THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE MODELS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...JUST A TOUCH SLOWER. A NEW TWIST IN
THE MODELS THIS MORNING IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL FINALLY PUSH
OUT THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE AT SEEING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
BEFORE 00Z BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLIPPER WILL BE OUT BY 12Z SO CONTINUED WITH
DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE
LIKE SPRING VERSUS EARLY SUMMER.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     58  76  49  74  47 /  60  30  10  10  30
ANNISTON    61  77  53  74  50 /  60  30  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  60  76  53  74  52 /  60  20  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  60  77  51  76  52 /  60  20  10   0  10
CALERA      61  76  53  74  53 /  60  30  10   0  20
AUBURN      63  77  54  74  53 /  60  40  20   0  10
MONTGOMERY  65  80  55  77  56 /  60  40  20   0  10
TROY        65  80  55  77  55 /  60  50  20   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 021134
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
634 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHT SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO SOME WIND TRICKLING
IN FROM THE GULF...THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT HAS BREACHED NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI... INDUCING A FEW SHOWERS IN ITS NORTHWEST
COUNTIES...THE OVERALL TREND WITH THE OMEGA BLOCK IN PLACE MEANS A
LIKELY CHANCE OF THE COLD FRONT PERSISTING IN THE REGION LONGER
THAN MODELS TEND TO PREDICT...UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
STAGNATE... WITH LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL FURTHER IN THE WEEK...THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL ROUGHLY 9AM
AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL THE PRESSURE TIGHTENS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON A DIURNAL
CYCLE... WITH THE LOW HITTING AROUND SUNRISE... AS LITTLE
SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE IS IN PLACE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES JUST AFTER SUNRISE... WITH
THE MORE MODERATE CHANCES BEGINNING AROUND 14Z-16Z AS THE COLD
FRONT JUST BEGINS TO CREEP PAST THE AL/MS BORDER. AS MENTIONED THE
FRONT WILL LINGER KEEPING RAINFALL AROUND MOST OF THE DAY... A
LIKELY CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS PUT IN MAINLY OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
MODEST SURFACE CAPE ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND SURFACE LAPSE RATES ABOVE
7C/KM. FORTUNATELY NEITHER DEEP SHEAR 0-6KM NOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES LOOKED IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO ADD IN SEVERE ELEMENTS. A FEW
STORMS MAY REACH STRONG CRITERIA, PRODUCING 40 MPH WIND GUSTS.
AFTER 00Z CAPE AND LAPSE RATES DECREASE RAPIDLY... ALLOWING
RAINFALL TO BE THE PREDOMINATE OBSERVED WEATHER THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT.

92

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AS WE WORK INTO TUESDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES AS A COLD FRONT FINISHES IT ROUTE THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. UNTIL IT CLEARS TOTALLY THERE COULD BE SEVERAL
WAVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT SO RAIN CHANCES COULD WIND UP BEING
HIGHER THAN THE ACTUAL FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY OF THE EXTRA
WAVES REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS HAS BEEN THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE MODELS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...JUST A TOUCH SLOWER. A NEW TWIST IN
THE MODELS THIS MORNING IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL FINALLY PUSH
OUT THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE AT SEEING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
BEFORE 00Z BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLIPPER WILL BE OUT BY 12Z SO CONTINUED WITH
DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE
LIKE SPRING VERSUS EARLY SUMMER.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE AT IFR AND MVFR WITH PERSISTENT FOG ABLE TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING, WINDS WILL
PICK UP AND ALLOW IFR CONDITIONS TO RISE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING
AND THEN TO VFR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT TRANSITS THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBILITIES WILL
AGAIN DROP IN THE SOUTHEAST STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AND LASTING UNTIL
EARLY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

92

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND PROVIDE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA.  DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     78  58  76  49  74 /  80  70  30  10  10
ANNISTON    79  61  77  53  74 /  70  70  30  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  78  60  76  53  74 /  80  70  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  77  60  77  51  76 /  80  70  20  10  10
CALERA      78  61  76  53  74 /  70  70  30  10  10
AUBURN      84  63  77  54  74 /  60  50  40  20  10
MONTGOMERY  84  65  80  55  77 /  60  70  40  20  10
TROY        84  65  80  55  77 /  50  50  50  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 020918
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
418 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHT SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO SOME WIND TRICKLING
IN FROM THE GULF...THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT HAS BREACHED NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI... INDUCING A FEW SHOWERS IN ITS NORTHWEST
COUNTIES...THE OVERALL TREND WITH THE OMEGA BLOCK IN PLACE MEANS A
LIKELY CHANCE OF THE COLD FRONT PERSISTING IN THE REGION LONGER
THAN MODELS TEND TO PREDICT...UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
STAGNATE... WITH LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL FURTHER IN THE WEEK...THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL ROUGHLY 9AM
AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL THE PRESSURE TIGHTENS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON A DIURNAL
CYCLE... WITH THE LOW HITTING AROUND SUNRISE... AS LITTLE
SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE IS IN PLACE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES JUST AFTER SUNRISE... WITH
THE MORE MODERATE CHANCES BEGINNING AROUND 14Z-16Z AS THE COLD
FRONT JUST BEGINS TO CREEP PAST THE AL/MS BORDER. AS MENTIONED THE
FRONT WILL LINGER KEEPING RAINFALL AROUND MOST OF THE DAY... A
LIKELY CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS PUT IN MAINLY OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
MODEST SURFACE CAPE ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND SURFACE LAPSE RATES ABOVE
7C/KM. FORTUNATELY NEITHER DEEP SHEAR 0-6KM NOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES LOOKED IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO ADD IN SEVERE ELEMENTS. A FEW
STORMS MAY REACH STRONG CRITERIA, PRODUCING 40 MPH WIND GUSTS.
AFTER 00Z CAPE AND LAPSE RATES DECREASE RAPIDLY... ALLOWING
RAINFALL TO BE THE PREDOMINATE OBSERVED WEATHER THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT.

92

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AS WE WORK INTO TUESDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES AS A COLD FRONT FINISHES IT ROUTE THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. UNTIL IT CLEARS TOTALLY THERE COULD BE SEVERAL
WAVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT SO RAIN CHANCES COULD WIND UP BEING
HIGHER THAN THE ACTUAL FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY OF THE EXTRA
WAVES REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS HAS BEEN THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE MODELS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...JUST A TOUCH SLOWER. A NEW TWIST IN
THE MODELS THIS MORNING IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL FINALLY PUSH
OUT THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE AT SEEING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
BEFORE 00Z BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLIPPER WILL BE OUT BY 12Z SO CONTINUED WITH
DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE
LIKE SPRING VERSUS EARLY SUMMER.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST SITES. PATCHY AREAS
OF FOG ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR-SURFACE
SATURATION AND SOME BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUDS. GENERAL EXPECTATION
IS FOR FOG TO TRANSITION TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

32/DAVIS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND PROVIDE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA.  DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     78  57  76  49  74 /  80  60  30  10  10
ANNISTON    79  60  77  53  74 /  70  60  30  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  78  60  76  53  74 /  80  60  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  77  59  77  51  76 /  90  60  20  10  10
CALERA      78  60  76  53  74 /  70  60  30  10  10
AUBURN      84  62  77  54  74 /  60  60  40  20  10
MONTGOMERY  84  64  80  55  77 /  60  60  40  20  10
TROY        84  64  80  55  77 /  40  60  50  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 020502
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1202 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CALM WIND...TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE DEWPOINT...AND RECENT RAIN. HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE LOUISIANA
GULF COAST AND THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS DUE TO
LOW-LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS KEEPING
FOG FROM BEING WIDESPREAD. NOT TOO ENTHUSED ABOUT RAIN CHANCES
LATE TONIGHT AS CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER ALONG THE FRONT DID NOT MAKE ANY PROGRESS EASTWARD...AND
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. LOWERED RAIN CHANCES SOME BUT KEPT SOME 20-30% CHANCES OF
MAINLY SHOWERS IN THE NORTH/WEST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT LEAST MID-MORNING.

32/DAVIS


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST SITES. PATCHY AREAS
OF FOG ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR-SURFACE
SATURATION AND SOME BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUDS. GENERAL EXPECTATION
IS FOR FOG TO TRANSITION TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND BRING AN END TO THE RAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND SBCAPE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY INTO EAST
ALABAMA. STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNIMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK 0-6 KM SHEAR. A LULL IN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE COMPLEX OF STORMS.

BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ON MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB FLOW IN PLACE NEAR A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL GATHER STRENGTH AS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL
APPROACH WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND A GOOD FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST ALABAMA. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AS DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES AND COMBINES WITH SBCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WILL NOT
INTRODUCE MENTION OF SEVERE INTO THE HWO...BUT IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT WITH LATER UPDATES.

87/GRANTHAM

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT AS
IT AWAITS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF. THE GFS MODEL IS ABOUT SIX
HOURS FASTER WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF
MODEL...BUT THE OVERALL TREND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOR THE RAIN TO
BE ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE NGM AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...
WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROF. KEPT
LIKELY POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59
AND CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 ON TUESDAY. THERE
MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH ALL RAIN OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT.

A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  78  57  73  50 /  20  80  60  30  10
ANNISTON    63  79  60  74  51 /  10  70  60  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  63  78  60  75  53 /  20  80  60  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  77  59  76  52 /  20  90  60  20  10
CALERA      64  78  60  75  53 /  20  70  60  30  10
AUBURN      64  84  62  77  54 /  10  60  60  40  20
MONTGOMERY  65  84  64  78  56 /  10  60  60  40  20
TROY        64  84  64  79  56 /  10  40  60  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 020315
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1015 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CALM WIND...TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE DEWPOINT...AND RECENT RAIN. HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE LOUISIANA
GULF COAST AND THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS DUE TO
LOW-LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS KEEPING
FOG FROM BEING WIDESPREAD. NOT TOO ENTHUSED ABOUT RAIN CHANCES
LATE TONIGHT AS CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER ALONG THE FRONT DID NOT MAKE ANY PROGRESS EASTWARD...AND
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. LOWERED RAIN CHANCES SOME BUT KEPT SOME 20-30% CHANCES OF
MAINLY SHOWERS IN THE NORTH/WEST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT LEAST MID-MORNING.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE ONLY
ASSOCIATED AVIATION IMPACTS BEING AT TOI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. WITH FAIRLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE IFR CIGS. WITH
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO THE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING...BUT THIS WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON ENOUGH CLEARING FROM THE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

32/DAVIS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND BRING AN END TO THE RAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND SBCAPE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY INTO EAST
ALABAMA. STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNIMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK 0-6 KM SHEAR. A LULL IN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE COMPLEX OF STORMS.

BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ON MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB FLOW IN PLACE NEAR A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL GATHER STRENGTH AS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL
APPROACH WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND A GOOD FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST ALABAMA. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AS DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES AND COMBINES WITH SBCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WILL NOT
INTRODUCE MENTION OF SEVERE INTO THE HWO...BUT IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT WITH LATER UPDATES.

87/GRANTHAM

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT AS
IT AWAITS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF. THE GFS MODEL IS ABOUT SIX
HOURS FASTER WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF
MODEL...BUT THE OVERALL TREND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOR THE RAIN TO
BE ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE NGM AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...
WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROF. KEPT
LIKELY POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59
AND CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 ON TUESDAY. THERE
MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH ALL RAIN OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT.

A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     61  78  57  73  50 /  20  80  60  30  10
ANNISTON    63  79  60  74  51 /  10  70  60  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  63  78  60  75  53 /  20  80  60  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  77  59  76  52 /  20  90  60  20  10
CALERA      64  78  60  75  53 /  20  70  60  30  10
AUBURN      64  84  62  77  54 /  10  60  60  40  20
MONTGOMERY  65  84  64  78  56 /  10  60  60  40  20
TROY        64  84  64  79  56 /  10  40  60  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 012339
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
639 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND SBCAPE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY INTO EAST
ALABAMA. STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNIMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK 0-6 KM SHEAR. A LULL IN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE COMPLEX OF STORMS.

BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ON MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB FLOW IN PLACE NEAR A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL GATHER STRENGTH AS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL
APPROACH WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND A GOOD FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST ALABAMA. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AS DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES AND COMBINES WITH SBCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WILL NOT
INTRODUCE MENTION OF SEVERE INTO THE HWO...BUT IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT WITH LATER UPDATES.

87/GRANTHAM

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT AS
IT AWAITS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF. THE GFS MODEL IS ABOUT SIX
HOURS FASTER WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF
MODEL...BUT THE OVERALL TREND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOR THE RAIN TO
BE ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE NGM AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...
WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROF. KEPT
LIKELY POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59
AND CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 ON TUESDAY. THERE
MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH ALL RAIN OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT.

A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE ONLY
ASSOCIATED AVIATION IMPACTS BEING AT TOI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. WITH FAIRLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE IFR CIGS. WITH
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO THE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING...BUT THIS WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON ENOUGH CLEARING FROM THE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND BRING AN END TO THE RAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  78  57  73  50 /  40  80  60  30  10
ANNISTON    65  79  60  74  51 /  60  70  60  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  65  78  60  75  53 /  20  80  60  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  66  77  59  76  52 /  30  90  60  20  10
CALERA      66  78  60  75  53 /  20  70  60  30  10
AUBURN      66  84  62  77  54 /  80  50  60  40  20
MONTGOMERY  68  84  64  78  56 /  50  60  60  40  20
TROY        67  84  64  79  56 /  60  40  60  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 012026
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
326 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND SBCAPE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY INTO EAST
ALABAMA. STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNIMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK 0-6 KM SHEAR. A LULL IN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE COMPLEX OF STORMS.

BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ON MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB FLOW IN PLACE NEAR A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL GATHER STRENGTH AS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL
APPROACH WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND A GOOD FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST ALABAMA. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AS DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES AND COMBINES WITH SBCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WILL NOT
INTRODUCE MENTION OF SEVERE INTO THE HWO...BUT IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT WITH LATER UPDATES.

87/GRANTHAM


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT AS
IT AWAITS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF. THE GFS MODEL IS ABOUT SIX
HOURS FASTER WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF
MODEL...BUT THE OVERALL TREND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOR THE RAIN TO
BE ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE NGM AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...
WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROF. KEPT
LIKELY POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59
AND CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 ON TUESDAY. THERE
MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH ALL RAIN OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT.

A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS ARE
UNCLEAR DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY...SO AMENDMENTS
WILL BE NECESSARY. A LULL IN ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND
MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MOIST
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND BRING AN END TO THE RAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  78  57  73  50 /  40  80  60  30  10
ANNISTON    65  79  60  74  51 /  60  70  60  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  65  78  60  75  53 /  30  80  60  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  66  77  59  76  52 /  30  90  60  20  10
CALERA      66  78  60  75  53 /  40  70  60  30  10
AUBURN      66  84  62  77  54 /  60  50  60  40  20
MONTGOMERY  68  84  64  78  56 /  60  60  60  40  20
TROY        67  84  64  79  56 /  50  40  60  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 011730
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
SHORT TERM AND 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DEEPER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING IN FROM
MISSISSIPPI SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALREADY FORMING AHEAD
OF IT ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WHICH INDICATES A PRESENCE OF
QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL...BUT SHOULD STAY
BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA DUE TO WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS ARE
UNCLEAR DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY...SO AMENDMENTS
WILL BE NECESSARY. A LULL IN ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND
MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MOIST
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON LATER TODAY AND
STALL OUT ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  78  57  74  50 /  50  80  60  30  10
ANNISTON    65  79  60  75  52 /  50  80  60  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  65  78  60  75  54 /  50  80  50  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  66  77  59  75  53 /  50  80  50  30  10
CALERA      66  78  60  75  54 /  50  80  60  30  10
AUBURN      66  84  62  76  55 /  50  60  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  68  84  64  79  56 /  50  60  60  40  20
TROY        67  84  64  78  56 /  40  50  50  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 011232
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
732 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
PAST TWO HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH 10
AM. OTHERWISE... CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR
EASTERN EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS.

05

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT JET LEVEL WITH 60-70 KNOT WINDS WAS
ANALYZED ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE AT 500 MB A CLOSED LOW WAS ANALYZED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT WHILE ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS DEPICTED ACROSS OUR AREA
AT THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND FURTHER TOWARD THE SURFACE
WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 700 MB WITH HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
PREVALENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE... A
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS DEPICTED AT 850 MB WITH WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30
KNOTS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

AT THE SURFACE... A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 04Z FROM SOUTH TEXAS
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
MISSOURI AND INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE FRONT BECAME STATIONARY FROM
ILLINOIS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THEN WAS ANALYZED ALONG
THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA INTO EXTREME EASTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA AS A STATIONARY FRONT WITH
CHARACTERISTICS OF A BACK DOOR OR WEDGE FRONT DUE TO A 1023 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COASTLINE WHILE
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA ALONG
THE FRONT AND ANOTHER 1008 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IN
MISSOURI.

.SHORT TERM...
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING)

ALOFT...EXPECT THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT JET LEVEL TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WITH WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 50 AND 70
KNOTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AT THE MID LEVELS MOST
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WHILE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MORE SUBTLE MESOSCALE FEATURES
IS EVIDENT WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND POSITION OF SHORTWAVES THAT
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS QUICKLY OPENS UP AND IS ABSORBED INTO A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH THAT SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST INTO IOWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA ALSO OPENS INTO THE SAME TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH SHRINKS IN SIZE AND BECOMES MORE
DEFINED BY MONDAY MORNING AND EXTENDS FROM WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST TO
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AMPLE MOISTURE IS DEPICTED IN NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER OUR
AREA AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL HELP TO PROVIDE LIFT AND MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN NEAR SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES NEAR THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA BORDER AS
THE RELATIVELY WEAK BACK DOOR OR WEDGE FRONT NEARS FROM THE EAST.
EXPECT ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH MOST AREAS
EXPERIENCING MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING THANKS
TO DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT HAS PUSHED IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS TODAY WILL AGAIN POSE
A RISK FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL DUE TO THE EXPECTED
NEAR-SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CONDITIONS ALOFT.

SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.
LOOK FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY AS THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS GRADUALLY SLIDES FURTHER
EAST... RESULTING IN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY ADVANCE CLOSER
TO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

05

.LONG TERM...

WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE STATE AND SUFFICIENT UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...MONDAY IS LOOKING RATHER WET. STILL SOME
QUIRKINESS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES BUT MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS GROUPED TOGETHER WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AROUND THE
I-20/59 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY A
CLEARING UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

THE REST OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOKS DRY AND COOL. OMEGA
PATTERN SETS UP WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COUPLE OF THOSE DAYS...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A LOT OF
LOWER 70S AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH MID 70S SOUTH. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S HOWEVER FRIDAY MORNING WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MID
TO UPPER 40S MIXED IN ACROSS THE AREA.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCT LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA AT
THIS HOUR AND IS HELPING TO DISCOURAGE FOG FORMATION. AMENDED
PREVIOUS CYCLE FOR DROP IN VSBYS AT ANB AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS
THROUGH 15Z AT ANB AND ASN. OTHER CONCERN IS WITH TIMING OF
CONVECTION AS MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON INITIATION WELL
BEFORE 18Z. INTRODUCED SHRA WITH VCTS AT MOST TERMINALS BY 15Z.

05


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON LATER TODAY AND
STALL OUT ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     79  62  78  57  74 /  60  60  70  60  30
ANNISTON    79  65  79  60  75 /  60  50  70  60  30
BIRMINGHAM  80  65  77  60  75 /  60  50  70  50  30
TUSCALOOSA  80  65  77  59  75 /  70  50  80  50  30
CALERA      79  65  78  60  75 /  60  50  70  60  30
AUBURN      80  66  80  62  76 /  50  50  50  50  40
MONTGOMERY  82  68  82  64  79 /  60  50  60  60  40
TROY        83  66  82  64  78 /  50  40  40  50  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 011232
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
732 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
PAST TWO HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH 10
AM. OTHERWISE... CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR
EASTERN EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS.

05

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT JET LEVEL WITH 60-70 KNOT WINDS WAS
ANALYZED ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE AT 500 MB A CLOSED LOW WAS ANALYZED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT WHILE ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS DEPICTED ACROSS OUR AREA
AT THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND FURTHER TOWARD THE SURFACE
WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 700 MB WITH HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
PREVALENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE... A
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS DEPICTED AT 850 MB WITH WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30
KNOTS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

AT THE SURFACE... A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 04Z FROM SOUTH TEXAS
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
MISSOURI AND INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE FRONT BECAME STATIONARY FROM
ILLINOIS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THEN WAS ANALYZED ALONG
THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA INTO EXTREME EASTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA AS A STATIONARY FRONT WITH
CHARACTERISTICS OF A BACK DOOR OR WEDGE FRONT DUE TO A 1023 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COASTLINE WHILE
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA ALONG
THE FRONT AND ANOTHER 1008 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IN
MISSOURI.

.SHORT TERM...
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING)

ALOFT...EXPECT THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT JET LEVEL TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WITH WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 50 AND 70
KNOTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AT THE MID LEVELS MOST
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WHILE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MORE SUBTLE MESOSCALE FEATURES
IS EVIDENT WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND POSITION OF SHORTWAVES THAT
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS QUICKLY OPENS UP AND IS ABSORBED INTO A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH THAT SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST INTO IOWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA ALSO OPENS INTO THE SAME TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH SHRINKS IN SIZE AND BECOMES MORE
DEFINED BY MONDAY MORNING AND EXTENDS FROM WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST TO
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AMPLE MOISTURE IS DEPICTED IN NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER OUR
AREA AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL HELP TO PROVIDE LIFT AND MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN NEAR SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES NEAR THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA BORDER AS
THE RELATIVELY WEAK BACK DOOR OR WEDGE FRONT NEARS FROM THE EAST.
EXPECT ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH MOST AREAS
EXPERIENCING MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING THANKS
TO DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT HAS PUSHED IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS TODAY WILL AGAIN POSE
A RISK FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL DUE TO THE EXPECTED
NEAR-SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CONDITIONS ALOFT.

SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.
LOOK FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY AS THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS GRADUALLY SLIDES FURTHER
EAST... RESULTING IN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY ADVANCE CLOSER
TO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

05

.LONG TERM...

WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE STATE AND SUFFICIENT UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...MONDAY IS LOOKING RATHER WET. STILL SOME
QUIRKINESS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES BUT MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS GROUPED TOGETHER WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AROUND THE
I-20/59 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY A
CLEARING UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

THE REST OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOKS DRY AND COOL. OMEGA
PATTERN SETS UP WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COUPLE OF THOSE DAYS...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A LOT OF
LOWER 70S AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH MID 70S SOUTH. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S HOWEVER FRIDAY MORNING WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MID
TO UPPER 40S MIXED IN ACROSS THE AREA.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCT LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA AT
THIS HOUR AND IS HELPING TO DISCOURAGE FOG FORMATION. AMENDED
PREVIOUS CYCLE FOR DROP IN VSBYS AT ANB AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS
THROUGH 15Z AT ANB AND ASN. OTHER CONCERN IS WITH TIMING OF
CONVECTION AS MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON INITIATION WELL
BEFORE 18Z. INTRODUCED SHRA WITH VCTS AT MOST TERMINALS BY 15Z.

05


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON LATER TODAY AND
STALL OUT ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     79  62  78  57  74 /  60  60  70  60  30
ANNISTON    79  65  79  60  75 /  60  50  70  60  30
BIRMINGHAM  80  65  77  60  75 /  60  50  70  50  30
TUSCALOOSA  80  65  77  59  75 /  70  50  80  50  30
CALERA      79  65  78  60  75 /  60  50  70  60  30
AUBURN      80  66  80  62  76 /  50  50  50  50  40
MONTGOMERY  82  68  82  64  79 /  60  50  60  60  40
TROY        83  66  82  64  78 /  50  40  40  50  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 011111
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
611 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT JET LEVEL WITH 60-70 KNOT WINDS WAS
ANALYZED ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE AT 500 MB A CLOSED LOW WAS ANALYZED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT WHILE ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS DEPICTED ACROSS OUR AREA
AT THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND FURTHER TOWARD THE SURFACE
WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 700 MB WITH HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
PREVALENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE... A
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS DEPICTED AT 850 MB WITH WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30
KNOTS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

AT THE SURFACE... A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 04Z FROM SOUTH TEXAS
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
MISSOURI AND INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE FRONT BECAME STATIONARY FROM
ILLINOIS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THEN WAS ANALYZED ALONG
THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA INTO EXTREME EASTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA AS A STATIONARY FRONT WITH
CHARACTERISTICS OF A BACK DOOR OR WEDGE FRONT DUE TO A 1023 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COASTLINE WHILE
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA ALONG
THE FRONT AND ANOTHER 1008 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IN
MISSOURI.

.SHORT TERM...
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING)

ALOFT...EXPECT THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT JET LEVEL TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WITH WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 50 AND 70
KNOTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AT THE MID LEVELS MOST
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WHILE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MORE SUBTLE MESOSCALE FEATURES
IS EVIDENT WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND POSITION OF SHORTWAVES THAT
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS QUICKLY OPENS UP AND IS ABSORBED INTO A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH THAT SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST INTO IOWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA ALSO OPENS INTO THE SAME TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH SHRINKS IN SIZE AND BECOMES MORE
DEFINED BY MONDAY MORNING AND EXTENDS FROM WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST TO
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AMPLE MOISTURE IS DEPICTED IN NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER OUR
AREA AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL HELP TO PROVIDE LIFT AND MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN NEAR SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES NEAR THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA BORDER AS
THE RELATIVELY WEAK BACK DOOR OR WEDGE FRONT NEARS FROM THE EAST.
EXPECT ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH MOST AREAS
EXPERIENCING MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING THANKS
TO DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT HAS PUSHED IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS TODAY WILL AGAIN POSE
A RISK FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL DUE TO THE EXPECTED
NEAR-SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CONDITIONS ALOFT.

SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.
LOOK FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY AS THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS GRADUALLY SLIDES FURTHER
EAST... RESULTING IN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY ADVANCE CLOSER
TO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

05

.LONG TERM...

WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE STATE AND SUFFICIENT UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...MONDAY IS LOOKING RATHER WET. STILL SOME
QUIRKINESS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES BUT MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS GROUPED TOGETHER WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AROUND THE
I-20/59 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY A
CLEARING UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

THE REST OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOKS DRY AND COOL. OMEGA
PATTERN SETS UP WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COUPLE OF THOSE DAYS...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A LOT OF
LOWER 70S AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH MID 70S SOUTH. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S HOWEVER FRIDAY MORNING WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MID
TO UPPER 40S MIXED IN ACROSS THE AREA.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCT LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA AT
THIS HOUR AND IS HELPING TO DISCOURAGE FOG FORMATION. AMENDED
PREVIOUS CYCLE FOR DROP IN VSBYS AT ANB AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS
THROUGH 15Z AT ANB AND ASN. OTHER CONCERN IS WITH TIMING OF
CONVECTION AS MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON INITIATION WELL
BEFORE 18Z. INTRODUCED SHRA WITH VCTS AT MOST TERMINALS BY 15Z.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON LATER TODAY AND
STALL OUT ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     79  62  78  57  74 /  60  60  70  60  30
ANNISTON    79  65  79  60  75 /  60  50  70  60  30
BIRMINGHAM  80  65  77  60  75 /  70  50  70  50  30
TUSCALOOSA  80  65  77  59  75 /  80  50  80  50  30
CALERA      79  65  78  60  75 /  70  50  70  60  30
AUBURN      80  66  80  62  76 /  60  50  50  50  40
MONTGOMERY  82  68  82  64  79 /  60  50  60  60  40
TROY        83  66  82  64  78 /  60  40  40  50  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 010905
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT JET LEVEL WITH 60-70 KNOT WINDS WAS
ANALYZED ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE AT 500 MB A CLOSED LOW WAS ANALYZED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT WHILE ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS DEPICTED ACROSS OUR AREA
AT THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND FURTHER TOWARD THE SURFACE
WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 700 MB WITH HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
PREVALENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE... A
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS DEPICTED AT 850 MB WITH WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30
KNOTS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

AT THE SURFACE... A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 04Z FROM SOUTH TEXAS
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
MISSOURI AND INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE FRONT BECAME STATIONARY FROM
ILLINOIS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THEN WAS ANALYZED ALONG
THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA INTO EXTREME EASTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA AS A STATIONARY FRONT WITH
CHARACTERISTICS OF A BACK DOOR OR WEDGE FRONT DUE TO A 1023 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COASTLINE WHILE
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA ALONG
THE FRONT AND ANOTHER 1008 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IN
MISSOURI.

.SHORT TERM...
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING)

ALOFT...EXPECT THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT JET LEVEL TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WITH WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 50 AND 70
KNOTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AT THE MID LEVELS MOST
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WHILE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MORE SUBTLE MESOSCALE FEATURES
IS EVIDENT WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND POSITION OF SHORTWAVES THAT
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.

NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS QUICKLY OPENS UP AND IS ABSORBED INTO A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH THAT SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST INTO IOWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA ALSO OPENS INTO THE SAME TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH SHRINKS IN SIZE AND BECOMES MORE
DEFINED BY MONDAY MORNING AND EXTENDS FROM WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST TO
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AMPLE MOISTURE IS DEPICTED IN NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER OUR
AREA AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL HELP TO PROVIDE LIFT AND MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN NEAR SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST.

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES NEAR THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA BORDER AS
THE RELATIVELY WEAK BACK DOOR OR WEDGE FRONT NEARS FROM THE EAST.
EXPECT ANY FOG TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH MOST AREAS
EXPERIENCING MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING THANKS
TO DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT HAS PUSHED IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS TODAY WILL AGAIN POSE
A RISK FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL DUE TO THE EXPECTED
NEAR-SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CONDITIONS ALOFT.

SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.
LOOK FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY AS THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS GRADUALLY SLIDES FURTHER
EAST... RESULTING IN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY ADVANCE CLOSER
TO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...

WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE STATE AND SUFFICIENT UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...MONDAY IS LOOKING RATHER WET. STILL SOME
QUIRKINESS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES BUT MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS GROUPED TOGETHER WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AROUND THE
I-20/59 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY A
CLEARING UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

THE REST OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOKS DRY AND COOL. OMEGA
PATTERN SETS UP WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COUPLE OF THOSE DAYS...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A LOT OF
LOWER 70S AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH MID 70S SOUTH. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S HOWEVER FRIDAY MORNING WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MID
TO UPPER 40S MIXED IN ACROSS THE AREA.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN MVFR STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM MISSISSIPPI LATE
TONIGHT TOWARDS ALL OF THE TAF SITES. A BIT OF LIGHT FOG IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE STRATUS ARRIVES AT TCL/EET WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH MORE DETAILS TO BE DETERMINED
IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

32/DAVIS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON LATER TODAY AND
STALL OUT ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     80  59  77  56  74 /  70  40  60  50  30
ANNISTON    80  62  78  58  74 /  70  40  60  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  81  63  78  59  74 /  70  40  70  50  30
TUSCALOOSA  81  62  77  59  74 /  70  40  70  50  30
CALERA      80  63  78  60  74 /  70  40  70  50  30
AUBURN      81  64  80  62  76 /  50  40  60  50  40
MONTGOMERY  83  66  82  63  78 /  50  40  50  50  40
TROY        84  66  84  64  78 /  40  40  40  50  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 010502
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1202 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS HOUR. NORTHERN EDGE
OF A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS COULD CLIP THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS EAST ALABAMA
COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM FORMING GIVEN
REMNANT BOUNDARIES AND INSTABILITY BUT THOSE CHANCES ARE VERY
LOW. NOT TOO ENTHUSED ABOUT RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NO
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING UPSTREAM. HOWEVER MODEL GUIDANCE
IS INSISTENT ON ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN SOME LOW-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND REBOUNDING PWATS EXPECT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS TO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
MADE SOME UPDATES TO TRIM BACK THE RAIN CHANCES
SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE
SKIES CAN CLEAR AND WINDS CAN BECOME CALM.

32/DAVIS


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN MVFR STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM MISSISSIPPI LATE
TONIGHT TOWARDS ALL OF THE TAF SITES. A BIT OF LIGHT FOG IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE STRATUS ARRIVES AT TCL/EET WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH MORE DETAILS TO BE DETERMINED
IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A WEAK FRONT
WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON SUNDAY AND STALL OUT ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OUT OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     80  59  77  56  74 /  70  40  60  50  30
ANNISTON    80  62  78  58  74 /  70  40  60  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  81  63  78  59  74 /  70  40  70  50  30
TUSCALOOSA  81  62  77  59  74 /  70  40  70  50  30
CALERA      80  63  78  60  74 /  70  40  70  50  30
AUBURN      81  64  80  62  76 /  50  40  60  50  40
MONTGOMERY  83  66  82  63  78 /  50  40  50  50  40
TROY        84  66  84  64  78 /  40  40  40  50  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 010321
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1021 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS HOUR. NORTHERN EDGE
OF A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS COULD CLIP THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS EAST ALABAMA
COULDN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM FORMING GIVEN
REMNANT BOUNDARIES AND INSTABILITY BUT THOSE CHANCES ARE VERY
LOW. NOT TOO ENTHUSED ABOUT RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NO
ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING UPSTREAM. HOWEVER MODEL GUIDANCE
IS INSISTENT ON ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN SOME LOW-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND REBOUNDING PWATS EXPECT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS TO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
MADE SOME UPDATES TO TRIM BACK THE RAIN CHANCES
SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE
SKIES CAN CLEAR AND WINDS CAN BECOME CALM.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO WEST ALABAMA HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED AND THEREFORE THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RECEIVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO AVIATION. BEST CHANCE OF TSRA WILL BE
AT MGM THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY TOWARDS TOI. LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST BEYOND THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBLY THAT LIGHT FOG
COULD DEVELOP INSTEAD IF THE CLEARING OVER MISSISIPPI PUSHES
EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAINS LOW.

32/DAVIS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A WEAK FRONT
WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST ALABAMA ON SUNDAY AND STALL OUT ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OUT OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 320 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

CURRENTLY WATCHING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MISSISSIPPI BUT MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAK. THE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
DISORGANIZED MCS WAS LACKING IN QUALITY AND DEPTH OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS MORNING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S
STORMS. HOWEVER...WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID IN
DECENT MOISTURE RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON. SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000
J/KG AND 500MB FLOW AROUND 40KT WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THIS COMPLEX
OF STORMS REGENERATES AND MOVES INTO THE CWA. ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS...THOUGH
MARGINAL 0-2KM HELICITY COULD SUPPORT A VERY BRIEF TORNADO.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD LEAD TO A
RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. PERSISTENT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY PROMOTE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THOUGH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE SLIGHTLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL DUE TO 25-35KT 0-6KM SHEAR...BUT WILL
LEAVE MENTION OF SEVERE OUT OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
NOW.

87/GRANTHAM

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GENERALLY WEAK FORCING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT
OF MORNING CLOUD COVERAGE AND CONVECTION...THERE MAY BE A ZONE OF
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE STALLED OUT SURFACE FRONT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE STORMS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE MAIN
UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND THE SURFACE FRONT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE SOUTHWARD. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 ON TUESDAY...WITH THE RAIN MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS A BROAD UPPER TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  80  59  77  56 /  40  70  40  60  50
ANNISTON    66  80  62  78  58 /  30  70  40  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  67  81  63  78  59 /  30  70  40  70  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  81  62  77  59 /  30  70  40  70  50
CALERA      67  80  63  78  60 /  30  70  40  70  50
AUBURN      66  81  64  80  62 /  20  50  40  60  50
MONTGOMERY  67  83  66  82  63 /  20  50  40  50  50
TROY        67  84  66  84  64 /  20  40  40  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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