Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KBMX 282359
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
559 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN QUICKLY TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. PLENTY
ON INSOLATION AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN THE MAIN
REASON FOR THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS.
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE NOTED IN THE ZONAL FLOW
BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EASTERLY FLOW IS TRYING TO SET UP A
WEDGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST BUT HAS BEEN OUTDONE SO
FAR BY THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INSOLATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE
INDICATES EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LIFT IS
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THIS REGION.
MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL LIFT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. IN ADDITION...EXPECT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
LOW LEVEL SATURATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER DRY ABOVE 800 MB. DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD ONLY DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BUT FURTHER SOUTH...CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN
DRY MOST OF THE DAY.

NEXT WEEKS FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEATHER EXTREMES.
EXPECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL GO FROM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S EARLY IN THE WEEK TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SO...HOW DO WE SET THE STAGE FOR SUCH
A DRAMATIC SWING. ON MONDAY...A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST...AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CLOSER TO HOME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE IN RESPONSE
TO THE LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTING TO THE EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND AN 850MB RIDGE LOCATED ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A LEE LOW DEVELOPS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. CLOSER TO HOME...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW OF
THE MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TRANSITIONS TO THE WARM SECTOR.

THE TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS PHASES WITH THE
SOUTHERN TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RATHER SATURATED AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY MARCH. WITH THE SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE...LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC PRODUCING
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND EXPECT THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
SOMEWHAT. THE 850MB JET INCREASES TO AROUND 50KTS. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS EXPECT A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND EXPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

THE MAJOR IMPACTS FROM THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES DECREASING RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS PHASE
AN INCREDIBLE UPPER LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 180 KTS DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT ALABAMA IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INCREDIBLE JET. THIS MEANS THERE
WILL BE AMPLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES PW VALUES OVER 1 INCH WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S. A WARM NOSE IS PRESENT ON
THE SOUNDINGS OF AROUND 5 DEGREES CELSIUS. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. THE WARM NOSE BEGINS
TO COOL SOME EARLY THURSDAY AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIXTURE OF
SNOW AND SLEET BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
THE POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS ARE BEGINNING TO COME IN LINE FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM.
EXPECT THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION
COULD BE A LITTLE BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THIS EVENT WILL
HAVE MORE IMPACTS THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENT DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-20 MPH AND COULD CAUSE
MORE ISSUES WITH TREES AND POWER-LINES IF THE EVENT UNFOLDS AS THE
CURRENT MODELS INDICATE. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
WITH THE EVENT STILL BEING OVER 4 DAYS AWAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-59 THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
NOT GO ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SAME THINKING AS PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT BROUGHT CIGS DOWN A BIT
QUICKER IN THE SOUTH. 4-5K FT CLOUD DECK IS QUICKLY SPREADING
NORTHWARD AND HAS ALREADY REACHED EET. CIGS HAVE NOW FALLEN TO
MVFR AT TOI. STILL EXPECT THE LOWER CIGS TO MOVE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR THEN IFR AREAWIDE BY
09Z-10Z. SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY WITH THE LOWER
CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  53  44  54  47 /  20  30  60  60  50
ANNISTON    40  57  45  58  50 /  30  30  40  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  42  57  48  56  51 /  20  30  60  70  50
TUSCALOOSA  44  57  49  57  50 /  10  20  60  60  50
CALERA      44  59  49  58  53 /  20  20  40  60  50
AUBURN      41  56  46  64  54 /  40  30  30  40  40
MONTGOMERY  44  62  50  66  56 /  30  20  30  50  30
TROY        43  62  49  68  56 /  40  20  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 282359
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
559 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN QUICKLY TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. PLENTY
ON INSOLATION AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN THE MAIN
REASON FOR THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS.
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE NOTED IN THE ZONAL FLOW
BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EASTERLY FLOW IS TRYING TO SET UP A
WEDGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST BUT HAS BEEN OUTDONE SO
FAR BY THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INSOLATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE
INDICATES EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LIFT IS
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THIS REGION.
MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL LIFT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. IN ADDITION...EXPECT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
LOW LEVEL SATURATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER DRY ABOVE 800 MB. DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD ONLY DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BUT FURTHER SOUTH...CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN
DRY MOST OF THE DAY.

NEXT WEEKS FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEATHER EXTREMES.
EXPECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL GO FROM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S EARLY IN THE WEEK TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SO...HOW DO WE SET THE STAGE FOR SUCH
A DRAMATIC SWING. ON MONDAY...A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST...AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CLOSER TO HOME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE IN RESPONSE
TO THE LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTING TO THE EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND AN 850MB RIDGE LOCATED ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A LEE LOW DEVELOPS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. CLOSER TO HOME...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW OF
THE MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TRANSITIONS TO THE WARM SECTOR.

THE TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS PHASES WITH THE
SOUTHERN TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RATHER SATURATED AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY MARCH. WITH THE SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE...LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC PRODUCING
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND EXPECT THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
SOMEWHAT. THE 850MB JET INCREASES TO AROUND 50KTS. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS EXPECT A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND EXPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

THE MAJOR IMPACTS FROM THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES DECREASING RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS PHASE
AN INCREDIBLE UPPER LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 180 KTS DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT ALABAMA IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INCREDIBLE JET. THIS MEANS THERE
WILL BE AMPLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES PW VALUES OVER 1 INCH WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S. A WARM NOSE IS PRESENT ON
THE SOUNDINGS OF AROUND 5 DEGREES CELSIUS. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. THE WARM NOSE BEGINS
TO COOL SOME EARLY THURSDAY AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIXTURE OF
SNOW AND SLEET BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
THE POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS ARE BEGINNING TO COME IN LINE FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM.
EXPECT THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION
COULD BE A LITTLE BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THIS EVENT WILL
HAVE MORE IMPACTS THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENT DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-20 MPH AND COULD CAUSE
MORE ISSUES WITH TREES AND POWER-LINES IF THE EVENT UNFOLDS AS THE
CURRENT MODELS INDICATE. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
WITH THE EVENT STILL BEING OVER 4 DAYS AWAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-59 THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
NOT GO ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SAME THINKING AS PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT BROUGHT CIGS DOWN A BIT
QUICKER IN THE SOUTH. 4-5K FT CLOUD DECK IS QUICKLY SPREADING
NORTHWARD AND HAS ALREADY REACHED EET. CIGS HAVE NOW FALLEN TO
MVFR AT TOI. STILL EXPECT THE LOWER CIGS TO MOVE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR THEN IFR AREAWIDE BY
09Z-10Z. SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY WITH THE LOWER
CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  53  44  54  47 /  20  30  60  60  50
ANNISTON    40  57  45  58  50 /  30  30  40  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  42  57  48  56  51 /  20  30  60  70  50
TUSCALOOSA  44  57  49  57  50 /  10  20  60  60  50
CALERA      44  59  49  58  53 /  20  20  40  60  50
AUBURN      41  56  46  64  54 /  40  30  30  40  40
MONTGOMERY  44  62  50  66  56 /  30  20  30  50  30
TROY        43  62  49  68  56 /  40  20  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 282359
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
559 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN QUICKLY TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. PLENTY
ON INSOLATION AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN THE MAIN
REASON FOR THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS.
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE NOTED IN THE ZONAL FLOW
BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EASTERLY FLOW IS TRYING TO SET UP A
WEDGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST BUT HAS BEEN OUTDONE SO
FAR BY THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INSOLATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE
INDICATES EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LIFT IS
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THIS REGION.
MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL LIFT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. IN ADDITION...EXPECT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
LOW LEVEL SATURATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER DRY ABOVE 800 MB. DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD ONLY DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BUT FURTHER SOUTH...CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN
DRY MOST OF THE DAY.

NEXT WEEKS FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEATHER EXTREMES.
EXPECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL GO FROM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S EARLY IN THE WEEK TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SO...HOW DO WE SET THE STAGE FOR SUCH
A DRAMATIC SWING. ON MONDAY...A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST...AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CLOSER TO HOME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE IN RESPONSE
TO THE LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTING TO THE EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND AN 850MB RIDGE LOCATED ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A LEE LOW DEVELOPS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. CLOSER TO HOME...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW OF
THE MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TRANSITIONS TO THE WARM SECTOR.

THE TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS PHASES WITH THE
SOUTHERN TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RATHER SATURATED AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY MARCH. WITH THE SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE...LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC PRODUCING
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND EXPECT THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
SOMEWHAT. THE 850MB JET INCREASES TO AROUND 50KTS. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS EXPECT A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND EXPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

THE MAJOR IMPACTS FROM THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES DECREASING RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS PHASE
AN INCREDIBLE UPPER LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 180 KTS DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT ALABAMA IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INCREDIBLE JET. THIS MEANS THERE
WILL BE AMPLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES PW VALUES OVER 1 INCH WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S. A WARM NOSE IS PRESENT ON
THE SOUNDINGS OF AROUND 5 DEGREES CELSIUS. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. THE WARM NOSE BEGINS
TO COOL SOME EARLY THURSDAY AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIXTURE OF
SNOW AND SLEET BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
THE POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS ARE BEGINNING TO COME IN LINE FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM.
EXPECT THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION
COULD BE A LITTLE BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THIS EVENT WILL
HAVE MORE IMPACTS THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENT DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-20 MPH AND COULD CAUSE
MORE ISSUES WITH TREES AND POWER-LINES IF THE EVENT UNFOLDS AS THE
CURRENT MODELS INDICATE. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
WITH THE EVENT STILL BEING OVER 4 DAYS AWAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-59 THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
NOT GO ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SAME THINKING AS PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT BROUGHT CIGS DOWN A BIT
QUICKER IN THE SOUTH. 4-5K FT CLOUD DECK IS QUICKLY SPREADING
NORTHWARD AND HAS ALREADY REACHED EET. CIGS HAVE NOW FALLEN TO
MVFR AT TOI. STILL EXPECT THE LOWER CIGS TO MOVE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR THEN IFR AREAWIDE BY
09Z-10Z. SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY WITH THE LOWER
CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  53  44  54  47 /  20  30  60  60  50
ANNISTON    40  57  45  58  50 /  30  30  40  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  42  57  48  56  51 /  20  30  60  70  50
TUSCALOOSA  44  57  49  57  50 /  10  20  60  60  50
CALERA      44  59  49  58  53 /  20  20  40  60  50
AUBURN      41  56  46  64  54 /  40  30  30  40  40
MONTGOMERY  44  62  50  66  56 /  30  20  30  50  30
TROY        43  62  49  68  56 /  40  20  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 282359
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
559 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN QUICKLY TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. PLENTY
ON INSOLATION AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN THE MAIN
REASON FOR THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS.
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE NOTED IN THE ZONAL FLOW
BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EASTERLY FLOW IS TRYING TO SET UP A
WEDGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST BUT HAS BEEN OUTDONE SO
FAR BY THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INSOLATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE
INDICATES EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LIFT IS
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THIS REGION.
MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL LIFT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. IN ADDITION...EXPECT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
LOW LEVEL SATURATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER DRY ABOVE 800 MB. DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD ONLY DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BUT FURTHER SOUTH...CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN
DRY MOST OF THE DAY.

NEXT WEEKS FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEATHER EXTREMES.
EXPECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL GO FROM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S EARLY IN THE WEEK TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SO...HOW DO WE SET THE STAGE FOR SUCH
A DRAMATIC SWING. ON MONDAY...A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST...AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CLOSER TO HOME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE IN RESPONSE
TO THE LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTING TO THE EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND AN 850MB RIDGE LOCATED ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A LEE LOW DEVELOPS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. CLOSER TO HOME...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW OF
THE MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TRANSITIONS TO THE WARM SECTOR.

THE TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS PHASES WITH THE
SOUTHERN TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RATHER SATURATED AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY MARCH. WITH THE SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE...LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC PRODUCING
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND EXPECT THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
SOMEWHAT. THE 850MB JET INCREASES TO AROUND 50KTS. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS EXPECT A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND EXPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

THE MAJOR IMPACTS FROM THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES DECREASING RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS PHASE
AN INCREDIBLE UPPER LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 180 KTS DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT ALABAMA IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INCREDIBLE JET. THIS MEANS THERE
WILL BE AMPLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES PW VALUES OVER 1 INCH WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S. A WARM NOSE IS PRESENT ON
THE SOUNDINGS OF AROUND 5 DEGREES CELSIUS. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. THE WARM NOSE BEGINS
TO COOL SOME EARLY THURSDAY AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIXTURE OF
SNOW AND SLEET BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
THE POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS ARE BEGINNING TO COME IN LINE FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM.
EXPECT THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION
COULD BE A LITTLE BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THIS EVENT WILL
HAVE MORE IMPACTS THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENT DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-20 MPH AND COULD CAUSE
MORE ISSUES WITH TREES AND POWER-LINES IF THE EVENT UNFOLDS AS THE
CURRENT MODELS INDICATE. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
WITH THE EVENT STILL BEING OVER 4 DAYS AWAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-59 THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
NOT GO ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SAME THINKING AS PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT BROUGHT CIGS DOWN A BIT
QUICKER IN THE SOUTH. 4-5K FT CLOUD DECK IS QUICKLY SPREADING
NORTHWARD AND HAS ALREADY REACHED EET. CIGS HAVE NOW FALLEN TO
MVFR AT TOI. STILL EXPECT THE LOWER CIGS TO MOVE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR THEN IFR AREAWIDE BY
09Z-10Z. SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY WITH THE LOWER
CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  53  44  54  47 /  20  30  60  60  50
ANNISTON    40  57  45  58  50 /  30  30  40  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  42  57  48  56  51 /  20  30  60  70  50
TUSCALOOSA  44  57  49  57  50 /  10  20  60  60  50
CALERA      44  59  49  58  53 /  20  20  40  60  50
AUBURN      41  56  46  64  54 /  40  30  30  40  40
MONTGOMERY  44  62  50  66  56 /  30  20  30  50  30
TROY        43  62  49  68  56 /  40  20  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 282133
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN QUICKLY TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. PLENTY
ON INSOLATION AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN THE MAIN
REASON FOR THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS.
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE NOTED IN THE ZONAL FLOW
BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EASTERLY FLOW IS TRYING TO SET UP A
WEDGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST BUT HAS BEEN OUTDONE SO
FAR BY THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INSOLATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE
INDICATES EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LIFT IS
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THIS REGION.
MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL LIFT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. IN ADDITION...EXPECT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
LOW LEVEL SATURATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER DRY ABOVE 800 MB. DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD ONLY DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BUT FURTHER SOUTH...CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN
DRY MOST OF THE DAY.

NEXT WEEKS FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEATHER EXTREMES.
EXPECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL GO FROM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S EARLY IN THE WEEK TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SO...HOW DO WE SET THE STAGE FOR SUCH
A DRAMATIC SWING. ON MONDAY...A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST...AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CLOSER TO HOME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE IN RESPONSE
TO THE LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTING TO THE EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND AN 850MB RIDGE LOCATED ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A LEE LOW DEVELOPS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. CLOSER TO HOME...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW OF
THE MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TRANSITIONS TO THE WARM SECTOR.

THE TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS PHASES WITH THE
SOUTHERN TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RATHER SATURATED AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY MARCH. WITH THE SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE...LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC PRODUCING
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND EXPECT THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
SOMEWHAT. THE 850MB JET INCREASES TO AROUND 50KTS. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS EXPECT A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND EXPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

THE MAJOR IMPACTS FROM THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES DECREASING RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS PHASE
AN INCREDIBLE UPPER LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 180 KTS DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT ALABAMA IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INCREDIBLE JET. THIS MEANS THERE
WILL BE AMPLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES PW VALUES OVER 1 INCH WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S. A WARM NOSE IS PRESENT ON
THE SOUNDINGS OF AROUND 5 DEGREES CELSIUS. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. THE WARM NOSE BEGINS
TO COOL SOME EARLY THURSDAY AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIXTURE OF
SNOW AND SLEET BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
THE POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS ARE BEGINNING TO COME IN LINE FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM.
EXPECT THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION
COULD BE A LITTLE BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THIS EVENT WILL
HAVE MORE IMPACTS THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENT DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-20 MPH AND COULD CAUSE
MORE ISSUES WITH TREES AND POWER-LINES IF THE EVENT UNFOLDS AS THE
CURRENT MODELS INDICATE. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
WITH THE EVENT STILL BEING OVER 4 DAYS AWAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-59 THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
NOT GO ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE SAME TEND AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE
INCREASES RATHER RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE A FEW LINES N THE
TERMINALS INDICATING LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...VFR. THEN DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR BETWEEN 05-10Z AREA
WIDE. WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY AT 6-12KTS. SOME DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG
MAY ACCOMPANY THE LOWER CLOUDS.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  53  44  54  47 /  20  30  60  60  50
ANNISTON    40  57  45  58  50 /  30  30  40  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  42  57  48  56  51 /  20  30  60  70  50
TUSCALOOSA  44  57  49  57  50 /  10  20  60  60  50
CALERA      44  59  49  58  53 /  20  20  40  60  50
AUBURN      41  56  46  64  54 /  40  30  30  40  40
MONTGOMERY  44  62  50  66  56 /  30  20  30  50  30
TROY        43  62  49  68  56 /  40  20  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 282133
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN QUICKLY TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. PLENTY
ON INSOLATION AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN THE MAIN
REASON FOR THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS.
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CAN BE NOTED IN THE ZONAL FLOW
BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. EASTERLY FLOW IS TRYING TO SET UP A
WEDGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST BUT HAS BEEN OUTDONE SO
FAR BY THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INSOLATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE
INDICATES EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LIFT IS
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THIS REGION.
MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL LIFT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. IN ADDITION...EXPECT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
LOW LEVEL SATURATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER DRY ABOVE 800 MB. DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TONIGHT...LOWS SHOULD ONLY DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
THIS LOW LEVEL LIFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE CONTINUED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BUT FURTHER SOUTH...CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN
DRY MOST OF THE DAY.

NEXT WEEKS FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEATHER EXTREMES.
EXPECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL GO FROM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S EARLY IN THE WEEK TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SO...HOW DO WE SET THE STAGE FOR SUCH
A DRAMATIC SWING. ON MONDAY...A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST...AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CLOSER TO HOME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE IN RESPONSE
TO THE LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTING TO THE EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND AN 850MB RIDGE LOCATED ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A LEE LOW DEVELOPS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. CLOSER TO HOME...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW OF
THE MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TRANSITIONS TO THE WARM SECTOR.

THE TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS PHASES WITH THE
SOUTHERN TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RATHER SATURATED AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY MARCH. WITH THE SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE...LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC PRODUCING
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND EXPECT THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
SOMEWHAT. THE 850MB JET INCREASES TO AROUND 50KTS. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS EXPECT A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND EXPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

THE MAJOR IMPACTS FROM THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES DECREASING RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS PHASE
AN INCREDIBLE UPPER LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 180 KTS DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT ALABAMA IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INCREDIBLE JET. THIS MEANS THERE
WILL BE AMPLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES PW VALUES OVER 1 INCH WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S. A WARM NOSE IS PRESENT ON
THE SOUNDINGS OF AROUND 5 DEGREES CELSIUS. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. THE WARM NOSE BEGINS
TO COOL SOME EARLY THURSDAY AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIXTURE OF
SNOW AND SLEET BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
THE POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS ARE BEGINNING TO COME IN LINE FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM.
EXPECT THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION
COULD BE A LITTLE BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THIS EVENT WILL
HAVE MORE IMPACTS THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENT DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-20 MPH AND COULD CAUSE
MORE ISSUES WITH TREES AND POWER-LINES IF THE EVENT UNFOLDS AS THE
CURRENT MODELS INDICATE. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
WITH THE EVENT STILL BEING OVER 4 DAYS AWAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-59 THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
NOT GO ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE SAME TEND AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE
INCREASES RATHER RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE A FEW LINES N THE
TERMINALS INDICATING LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...VFR. THEN DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR BETWEEN 05-10Z AREA
WIDE. WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY AT 6-12KTS. SOME DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG
MAY ACCOMPANY THE LOWER CLOUDS.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  53  44  54  47 /  20  30  60  60  50
ANNISTON    40  57  45  58  50 /  30  30  40  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  42  57  48  56  51 /  20  30  60  70  50
TUSCALOOSA  44  57  49  57  50 /  10  20  60  60  50
CALERA      44  59  49  58  53 /  20  20  40  60  50
AUBURN      41  56  46  64  54 /  40  30  30  40  40
MONTGOMERY  44  62  50  66  56 /  30  20  30  50  30
TROY        43  62  49  68  56 /  40  20  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 281743
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1143 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ERODING A BIT QUICK LATE THIS MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED. ADDITIONALLY...THE EASTERLY FLOW AND
COOL AIR HAS NOT ARRIVED YET. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE TREND. EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH AS MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY IN.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE SAME TEND AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE
INCREASES RATHER RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE A FEW LINES N THE
TERMINALS INDICATING LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...VFR. THEN DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR BETWEEN 05-10Z AREA
WIDE. WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY AT 6-12KTS. SOME DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG
MAY ACCOMPANY THE LOWER CLOUDS.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 516 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...AND NO REPORTS OF ANY
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE ACROSS GEORGIA AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. WEDGE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN TODAY...AND
KEPT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT IF EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD. A WEAK IMPULSE IN ZONAL FLOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY...BUT WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEDGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT
RAIN TO BE VERY LIGHT.

AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...PUSHING
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACK TO OUR NORTH. WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE
WEDGE KEEPS A HOLD ON THE EAST...PROVIDING ANOTHER LIFTING
MECHANISM. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO
A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FRONT MAKES IT TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...BUT BETTER FORCING IS WELL DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH AND WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. FRONT WASHES OUT IN
ZONAL FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND REESTABLISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ON ITS HEELS...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THAT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLING WILL PRIMARILY BE TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST
OF THE FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE COOLER AIRMASS. AS
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH DIVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEFORE RAIN
MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. TOO
EARLY TO DISCUSS IMPACTS...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN COLD AIR
UNDERCUTTING MOISTURE IN TIME FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  38  52  43  55 /  10  20  30  60  50
ANNISTON    56  40  57  44  59 /  10  30  30  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  58  41  55  46  57 /   0  20  30  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  60  43  55  48  58 /  10  10  20  60  60
CALERA      59  43  57  47  59 /   0  20  20  60  60
AUBURN      56  41  55  46  64 /  10  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  60  44  61  49  67 /  10  30  30  50  50
TROY        62  43  61  49  70 /  10  40  30  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 281743
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1143 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ERODING A BIT QUICK LATE THIS MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED. ADDITIONALLY...THE EASTERLY FLOW AND
COOL AIR HAS NOT ARRIVED YET. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE TREND. EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH AS MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY IN.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE SAME TEND AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE
INCREASES RATHER RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE A FEW LINES N THE
TERMINALS INDICATING LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...VFR. THEN DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR BETWEEN 05-10Z AREA
WIDE. WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY AT 6-12KTS. SOME DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG
MAY ACCOMPANY THE LOWER CLOUDS.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 516 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...AND NO REPORTS OF ANY
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE ACROSS GEORGIA AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. WEDGE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN TODAY...AND
KEPT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT IF EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD. A WEAK IMPULSE IN ZONAL FLOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY...BUT WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEDGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT
RAIN TO BE VERY LIGHT.

AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...PUSHING
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACK TO OUR NORTH. WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE
WEDGE KEEPS A HOLD ON THE EAST...PROVIDING ANOTHER LIFTING
MECHANISM. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO
A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FRONT MAKES IT TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...BUT BETTER FORCING IS WELL DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH AND WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. FRONT WASHES OUT IN
ZONAL FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND REESTABLISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ON ITS HEELS...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THAT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLING WILL PRIMARILY BE TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST
OF THE FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE COOLER AIRMASS. AS
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH DIVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEFORE RAIN
MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. TOO
EARLY TO DISCUSS IMPACTS...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN COLD AIR
UNDERCUTTING MOISTURE IN TIME FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  38  52  43  55 /  10  20  30  60  50
ANNISTON    56  40  57  44  59 /  10  30  30  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  58  41  55  46  57 /   0  20  30  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  60  43  55  48  58 /  10  10  20  60  60
CALERA      59  43  57  47  59 /   0  20  20  60  60
AUBURN      56  41  55  46  64 /  10  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  60  44  61  49  67 /  10  30  30  50  50
TROY        62  43  61  49  70 /  10  40  30  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 281743
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1143 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ERODING A BIT QUICK LATE THIS MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED. ADDITIONALLY...THE EASTERLY FLOW AND
COOL AIR HAS NOT ARRIVED YET. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE TREND. EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH AS MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY IN.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE SAME TEND AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE
INCREASES RATHER RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE A FEW LINES N THE
TERMINALS INDICATING LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...VFR. THEN DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR BETWEEN 05-10Z AREA
WIDE. WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY AT 6-12KTS. SOME DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG
MAY ACCOMPANY THE LOWER CLOUDS.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 516 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...AND NO REPORTS OF ANY
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE ACROSS GEORGIA AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. WEDGE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN TODAY...AND
KEPT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT IF EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD. A WEAK IMPULSE IN ZONAL FLOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY...BUT WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEDGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT
RAIN TO BE VERY LIGHT.

AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...PUSHING
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACK TO OUR NORTH. WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE
WEDGE KEEPS A HOLD ON THE EAST...PROVIDING ANOTHER LIFTING
MECHANISM. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO
A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FRONT MAKES IT TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...BUT BETTER FORCING IS WELL DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH AND WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. FRONT WASHES OUT IN
ZONAL FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND REESTABLISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ON ITS HEELS...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THAT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLING WILL PRIMARILY BE TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST
OF THE FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE COOLER AIRMASS. AS
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH DIVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEFORE RAIN
MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. TOO
EARLY TO DISCUSS IMPACTS...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN COLD AIR
UNDERCUTTING MOISTURE IN TIME FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  38  52  43  55 /  10  20  30  60  50
ANNISTON    56  40  57  44  59 /  10  30  30  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  58  41  55  46  57 /   0  20  30  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  60  43  55  48  58 /  10  10  20  60  60
CALERA      59  43  57  47  59 /   0  20  20  60  60
AUBURN      56  41  55  46  64 /  10  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  60  44  61  49  67 /  10  30  30  50  50
TROY        62  43  61  49  70 /  10  40  30  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 281743
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1143 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ERODING A BIT QUICK LATE THIS MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED. ADDITIONALLY...THE EASTERLY FLOW AND
COOL AIR HAS NOT ARRIVED YET. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE TREND. EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH AS MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY IN.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE SAME TEND AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE
INCREASES RATHER RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE A FEW LINES N THE
TERMINALS INDICATING LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...VFR. THEN DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR BETWEEN 05-10Z AREA
WIDE. WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY AT 6-12KTS. SOME DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG
MAY ACCOMPANY THE LOWER CLOUDS.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 516 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...AND NO REPORTS OF ANY
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE ACROSS GEORGIA AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. WEDGE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN TODAY...AND
KEPT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT IF EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD. A WEAK IMPULSE IN ZONAL FLOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY...BUT WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEDGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT
RAIN TO BE VERY LIGHT.

AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...PUSHING
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACK TO OUR NORTH. WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE
WEDGE KEEPS A HOLD ON THE EAST...PROVIDING ANOTHER LIFTING
MECHANISM. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO
A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FRONT MAKES IT TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...BUT BETTER FORCING IS WELL DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH AND WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. FRONT WASHES OUT IN
ZONAL FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND REESTABLISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ON ITS HEELS...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THAT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLING WILL PRIMARILY BE TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST
OF THE FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE COOLER AIRMASS. AS
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH DIVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEFORE RAIN
MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. TOO
EARLY TO DISCUSS IMPACTS...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN COLD AIR
UNDERCUTTING MOISTURE IN TIME FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  38  52  43  55 /  10  20  30  60  50
ANNISTON    56  40  57  44  59 /  10  30  30  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  58  41  55  46  57 /   0  20  30  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  60  43  55  48  58 /  10  10  20  60  60
CALERA      59  43  57  47  59 /   0  20  20  60  60
AUBURN      56  41  55  46  64 /  10  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  60  44  61  49  67 /  10  30  30  50  50
TROY        62  43  61  49  70 /  10  40  30  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 281242
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
642 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...AND NO REPORTS OF ANY
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE ACROSS GEORGIA AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. WEDGE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN TODAY...AND
KEPT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT IF EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD. A WEAK IMPULSE IN ZONAL FLOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY...BUT WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEDGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT
RAIN TO BE VERY LIGHT.

AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...PUSHING
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACK TO OUR NORTH. WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE
WEDGE KEEPS A HOLD ON THE EAST...PROVIDING ANOTHER LIFTING
MECHANISM. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO
A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FRONT MAKES IT TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...BUT BETTER FORCING IS WELL DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH AND WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. FRONT WASHES OUT IN
ZONAL FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND REESTABLISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ON ITS HEELS...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THAT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLING WILL PRIMARILY BE TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST
OF THE FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE COOLER AIRMASS. AS
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH DIVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEFORE RAIN
MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. TOO
EARLY TO DISCUSS IMPACTS...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN COLD AIR
UNDERCUTTING MOISTURE IN TIME FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WITH BROKEN CIGS AROUND 10 TO 15K FEET EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 7 TO
10 KNOTS. AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
AFTER 06Z AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED THE LOW CIGS INTO THE
PLANNING PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  38  52  43  55 /  10  20  30  60  50
ANNISTON    54  40  57  44  59 /  10  20  30  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  56  41  55  46  57 /   0  20  30  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  59  43  55  48  58 /  10  10  20  60  60
CALERA      57  43  57  47  59 /   0  20  20  60  60
AUBURN      53  41  55  46  64 /  10  20  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  57  44  61  49  67 /  10  20  30  50  50
TROY        57  43  61  49  70 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 281242
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
642 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...AND NO REPORTS OF ANY
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE ACROSS GEORGIA AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. WEDGE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN TODAY...AND
KEPT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT IF EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD. A WEAK IMPULSE IN ZONAL FLOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY...BUT WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEDGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT
RAIN TO BE VERY LIGHT.

AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...PUSHING
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACK TO OUR NORTH. WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE
WEDGE KEEPS A HOLD ON THE EAST...PROVIDING ANOTHER LIFTING
MECHANISM. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO
A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FRONT MAKES IT TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...BUT BETTER FORCING IS WELL DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH AND WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. FRONT WASHES OUT IN
ZONAL FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND REESTABLISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ON ITS HEELS...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THAT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLING WILL PRIMARILY BE TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST
OF THE FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE COOLER AIRMASS. AS
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH DIVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEFORE RAIN
MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. TOO
EARLY TO DISCUSS IMPACTS...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN COLD AIR
UNDERCUTTING MOISTURE IN TIME FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WITH BROKEN CIGS AROUND 10 TO 15K FEET EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 7 TO
10 KNOTS. AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
AFTER 06Z AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED THE LOW CIGS INTO THE
PLANNING PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  38  52  43  55 /  10  20  30  60  50
ANNISTON    54  40  57  44  59 /  10  20  30  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  56  41  55  46  57 /   0  20  30  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  59  43  55  48  58 /  10  10  20  60  60
CALERA      57  43  57  47  59 /   0  20  20  60  60
AUBURN      53  41  55  46  64 /  10  20  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  57  44  61  49  67 /  10  20  30  50  50
TROY        57  43  61  49  70 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 281242
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
642 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...AND NO REPORTS OF ANY
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE ACROSS GEORGIA AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. WEDGE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN TODAY...AND
KEPT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT IF EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD. A WEAK IMPULSE IN ZONAL FLOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY...BUT WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEDGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT
RAIN TO BE VERY LIGHT.

AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...PUSHING
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACK TO OUR NORTH. WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE
WEDGE KEEPS A HOLD ON THE EAST...PROVIDING ANOTHER LIFTING
MECHANISM. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO
A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FRONT MAKES IT TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...BUT BETTER FORCING IS WELL DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH AND WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. FRONT WASHES OUT IN
ZONAL FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND REESTABLISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ON ITS HEELS...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THAT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLING WILL PRIMARILY BE TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST
OF THE FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE COOLER AIRMASS. AS
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH DIVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEFORE RAIN
MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. TOO
EARLY TO DISCUSS IMPACTS...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN COLD AIR
UNDERCUTTING MOISTURE IN TIME FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WITH BROKEN CIGS AROUND 10 TO 15K FEET EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 7 TO
10 KNOTS. AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
AFTER 06Z AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED THE LOW CIGS INTO THE
PLANNING PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  38  52  43  55 /  10  20  30  60  50
ANNISTON    54  40  57  44  59 /  10  20  30  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  56  41  55  46  57 /   0  20  30  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  59  43  55  48  58 /  10  10  20  60  60
CALERA      57  43  57  47  59 /   0  20  20  60  60
AUBURN      53  41  55  46  64 /  10  20  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  57  44  61  49  67 /  10  20  30  50  50
TROY        57  43  61  49  70 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 281242
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
642 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...AND NO REPORTS OF ANY
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE ACROSS GEORGIA AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. WEDGE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN TODAY...AND
KEPT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT IF EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD. A WEAK IMPULSE IN ZONAL FLOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY...BUT WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEDGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT
RAIN TO BE VERY LIGHT.

AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...PUSHING
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACK TO OUR NORTH. WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE
WEDGE KEEPS A HOLD ON THE EAST...PROVIDING ANOTHER LIFTING
MECHANISM. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO
A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FRONT MAKES IT TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...BUT BETTER FORCING IS WELL DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH AND WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. FRONT WASHES OUT IN
ZONAL FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND REESTABLISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ON ITS HEELS...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THAT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLING WILL PRIMARILY BE TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST
OF THE FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE COOLER AIRMASS. AS
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH DIVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEFORE RAIN
MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. TOO
EARLY TO DISCUSS IMPACTS...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN COLD AIR
UNDERCUTTING MOISTURE IN TIME FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WITH BROKEN CIGS AROUND 10 TO 15K FEET EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 7 TO
10 KNOTS. AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
AFTER 06Z AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED THE LOW CIGS INTO THE
PLANNING PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  38  52  43  55 /  10  20  30  60  50
ANNISTON    54  40  57  44  59 /  10  20  30  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  56  41  55  46  57 /   0  20  30  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  59  43  55  48  58 /  10  10  20  60  60
CALERA      57  43  57  47  59 /   0  20  20  60  60
AUBURN      53  41  55  46  64 /  10  20  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  57  44  61  49  67 /  10  20  30  50  50
TROY        57  43  61  49  70 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 281116
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
516 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...AND NO REPORTS OF ANY
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE ACROSS GEORGIA AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. WEDGE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN TODAY...AND
KEPT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT IF EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD. A WEAK IMPULSE IN ZONAL FLOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY...BUT WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEDGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT
RAIN TO BE VERY LIGHT.

AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...PUSHING
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACK TO OUR NORTH. WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE
WEDGE KEEPS A HOLD ON THE EAST...PROVIDING ANOTHER LIFTING
MECHANISM. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO
A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FRONT MAKES IT TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...BUT BETTER FORCING IS WELL DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH AND WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. FRONT WASHES OUT IN
ZONAL FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND REESTABLISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ON ITS HEELS...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THAT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLING WILL PRIMARILY BE TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST
OF THE FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE COOLER AIRMASS. AS
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH DIVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEFORE RAIN
MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. TOO
EARLY TO DISCUSS IMPACTS...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN COLD AIR
UNDERCUTTING MOISTURE IN TIME FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND MOST OF SATURDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A LOW STRATUS DECK IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  38  52  43  55 /  10  20  30  60  50
ANNISTON    54  40  57  44  59 /  10  20  30  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  56  41  55  46  57 /   0  20  30  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  59  43  55  48  58 /  10  10  20  60  60
CALERA      57  43  57  47  59 /   0  20  20  60  60
AUBURN      53  41  55  46  64 /  10  20  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  57  44  61  49  67 /  10  20  30  50  50
TROY        57  43  61  49  70 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 281116
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
516 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...AND NO REPORTS OF ANY
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE ACROSS GEORGIA AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. WEDGE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN TODAY...AND
KEPT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT IF EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD. A WEAK IMPULSE IN ZONAL FLOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY...BUT WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEDGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT
RAIN TO BE VERY LIGHT.

AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...PUSHING
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACK TO OUR NORTH. WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE
WEDGE KEEPS A HOLD ON THE EAST...PROVIDING ANOTHER LIFTING
MECHANISM. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO
A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FRONT MAKES IT TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...BUT BETTER FORCING IS WELL DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH AND WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. FRONT WASHES OUT IN
ZONAL FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND REESTABLISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ON ITS HEELS...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THAT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLING WILL PRIMARILY BE TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST
OF THE FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE COOLER AIRMASS. AS
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH DIVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEFORE RAIN
MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. TOO
EARLY TO DISCUSS IMPACTS...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN COLD AIR
UNDERCUTTING MOISTURE IN TIME FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND MOST OF SATURDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A LOW STRATUS DECK IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  38  52  43  55 /  10  20  30  60  50
ANNISTON    54  40  57  44  59 /  10  20  30  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  56  41  55  46  57 /   0  20  30  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  59  43  55  48  58 /  10  10  20  60  60
CALERA      57  43  57  47  59 /   0  20  20  60  60
AUBURN      53  41  55  46  64 /  10  20  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  57  44  61  49  67 /  10  20  30  50  50
TROY        57  43  61  49  70 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 281116
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
516 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD
COVER. FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...AND NO REPORTS OF ANY
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD...STRENGTHENING THE WEDGE ACROSS GEORGIA AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. WEDGE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN TODAY...AND
KEPT HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE LOWER 50S...BUT IF EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS QUICKER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD. A WEAK IMPULSE IN ZONAL FLOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH
TODAY...BUT WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WEDGE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT
RAIN TO BE VERY LIGHT.

AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...PUSHING
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACK TO OUR NORTH. WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE
WEDGE KEEPS A HOLD ON THE EAST...PROVIDING ANOTHER LIFTING
MECHANISM. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO
A FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FRONT MAKES IT TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...BUT BETTER FORCING IS WELL DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH AND WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER. FRONT WASHES OUT IN
ZONAL FLOW...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND REESTABLISHING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ON ITS HEELS...A
STRONG TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THESE FEATURES RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THAT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE POOLING WILL PRIMARILY BE TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST
OF THE FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE COOLER AIRMASS. AS
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH DIVES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEFORE RAIN
MOVES TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. TOO
EARLY TO DISCUSS IMPACTS...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN COLD AIR
UNDERCUTTING MOISTURE IN TIME FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND MOST OF SATURDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A LOW STRATUS DECK IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  38  52  43  55 /  10  20  30  60  50
ANNISTON    54  40  57  44  59 /  10  20  30  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  56  41  55  46  57 /   0  20  30  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  59  43  55  48  58 /  10  10  20  60  60
CALERA      57  43  57  47  59 /   0  20  20  60  60
AUBURN      53  41  55  46  64 /  10  20  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  57  44  61  49  67 /  10  20  30  50  50
TROY        57  43  61  49  70 /  10  20  30  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 280539
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1139 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE IS VERY DRY
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S
SOUTH. THE DRY AIR MASS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FROST POTENTIAL LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND MOST OF SATURDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A LOW STRATUS DECK IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    28  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  28  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  29  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      34  53  41  52  47 /  10  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  35  59  44  57  50 /  10  10  20  40  50
TROY        35  58  43  58  50 /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 280539
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1139 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE IS VERY DRY
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S
SOUTH. THE DRY AIR MASS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FROST POTENTIAL LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND MOST OF SATURDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A LOW STRATUS DECK IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    28  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  28  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  29  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      34  53  41  52  47 /  10  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  35  59  44  57  50 /  10  10  20  40  50
TROY        35  58  43  58  50 /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 280539
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1139 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE IS VERY DRY
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S
SOUTH. THE DRY AIR MASS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FROST POTENTIAL LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND MOST OF SATURDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A LOW STRATUS DECK IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    28  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  28  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  29  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      34  53  41  52  47 /  10  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  35  59  44  57  50 /  10  10  20  40  50
TROY        35  58  43  58  50 /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 280539
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1139 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE IS VERY DRY
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S
SOUTH. THE DRY AIR MASS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FROST POTENTIAL LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND MOST OF SATURDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A LOW STRATUS DECK IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    28  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  28  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  29  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      34  53  41  52  47 /  10  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  35  59  44  57  50 /  10  10  20  40  50
TROY        35  58  43  58  50 /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 280453
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE IS VERY DRY
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S
SOUTH. THE DRY AIR MASS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FROST POTENTIAL LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NE
WINDS TONIGHT AND E WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SATURDAY.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    28  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  28  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  29  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      34  53  41  52  47 /  10  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  35  59  44  57  50 /  10  10  20  40  50
TROY        35  58  43  58  50 /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 280453
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE IS VERY DRY
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S
SOUTH. THE DRY AIR MASS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FROST POTENTIAL LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NE
WINDS TONIGHT AND E WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SATURDAY.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    28  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  28  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  29  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      34  53  41  52  47 /  10  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  35  59  44  57  50 /  10  10  20  40  50
TROY        35  58  43  58  50 /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 280453
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE IS VERY DRY
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S
SOUTH. THE DRY AIR MASS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FROST POTENTIAL LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NE
WINDS TONIGHT AND E WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SATURDAY.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    28  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  28  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  29  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      34  53  41  52  47 /  10  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  35  59  44  57  50 /  10  10  20  40  50
TROY        35  58  43  58  50 /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 280453
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE IS VERY DRY
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S
SOUTH. THE DRY AIR MASS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP THE FROST POTENTIAL LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NE
WINDS TONIGHT AND E WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SATURDAY.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    28  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  28  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  29  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      34  53  41  52  47 /  10  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  35  59  44  57  50 /  10  10  20  40  50
TROY        35  58  43  58  50 /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 280020
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MASSIVE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
COUNTRY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CONFLUENCE ZONE
OF THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A BIT OF A WEDGE SETUP.
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WIDE AREA OF WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A VERY COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO BLAST SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE
A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
FORM A LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY-TITLED TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD...FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE FRONT TO
ADVANCE WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING...LEADING TO A SITUATION
INVOLVING POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. THOUGH IT IS GETTING LATE IN
THE SEASON...THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
OR A WINTRY MIX NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NE
WINDS TONIGHT AND E WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SATURDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     24  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    27  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  27  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  28  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      33  53  41  52  47 /   0  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  34  59  44  57  50 /   0  10  20  40  50
TROY        34  58  43  58  50 /   0  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 280020
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MASSIVE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
COUNTRY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CONFLUENCE ZONE
OF THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A BIT OF A WEDGE SETUP.
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WIDE AREA OF WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A VERY COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO BLAST SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE
A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
FORM A LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY-TITLED TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD...FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE FRONT TO
ADVANCE WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING...LEADING TO A SITUATION
INVOLVING POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. THOUGH IT IS GETTING LATE IN
THE SEASON...THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
OR A WINTRY MIX NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NE
WINDS TONIGHT AND E WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SATURDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     24  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    27  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  27  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  28  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      33  53  41  52  47 /   0  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  34  59  44  57  50 /   0  10  20  40  50
TROY        34  58  43  58  50 /   0  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 280020
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MASSIVE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
COUNTRY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CONFLUENCE ZONE
OF THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A BIT OF A WEDGE SETUP.
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WIDE AREA OF WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A VERY COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO BLAST SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE
A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
FORM A LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY-TITLED TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD...FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE FRONT TO
ADVANCE WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING...LEADING TO A SITUATION
INVOLVING POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. THOUGH IT IS GETTING LATE IN
THE SEASON...THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
OR A WINTRY MIX NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NE
WINDS TONIGHT AND E WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SATURDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     24  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    27  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  27  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  28  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      33  53  41  52  47 /   0  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  34  59  44  57  50 /   0  10  20  40  50
TROY        34  58  43  58  50 /   0  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 280020
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MASSIVE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
COUNTRY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CONFLUENCE ZONE
OF THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A BIT OF A WEDGE SETUP.
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WIDE AREA OF WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A VERY COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO BLAST SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE
A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
FORM A LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY-TITLED TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD...FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE FRONT TO
ADVANCE WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING...LEADING TO A SITUATION
INVOLVING POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. THOUGH IT IS GETTING LATE IN
THE SEASON...THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
OR A WINTRY MIX NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NE
WINDS TONIGHT AND E WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SATURDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     24  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    27  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  27  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  28  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      33  53  41  52  47 /   0  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  34  59  44  57  50 /   0  10  20  40  50
TROY        34  58  43  58  50 /   0  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 272052
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A MASSIVE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
COUNTRY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CONFLUENCE ZONE
OF THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A BIT OF A WEDGE SETUP.
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WIDE AREA OF WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A VERY COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO BLAST SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE
A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
FORM A LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY-TITLED TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD...FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE FRONT TO
ADVANCE WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING...LEADING TO A SITUATION
INVOLVING POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. THOUGH IT IS GETTING LATE IN
THE SEASON...THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
OR A WINTRY MIX NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY ERODED...AND VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLOUDS ARE GATHERING AGAIN TO THE WEST AND POISED TO MOVE THIS WAY
TONIGHT. BUT CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM SHOULD STAY 10000 FT OR
HIGHER.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     24  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    27  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  27  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  28  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      33  53  41  52  47 /   0  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  34  59  44  57  50 /   0  10  20  40  50
TROY        34  58  43  58  50 /   0  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/61








000
FXUS64 KBMX 272052
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A MASSIVE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
COUNTRY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CONFLUENCE ZONE
OF THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A BIT OF A WEDGE SETUP.
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WIDE AREA OF WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A VERY COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO BLAST SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE
A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
FORM A LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY-TITLED TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD...FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE FRONT TO
ADVANCE WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING...LEADING TO A SITUATION
INVOLVING POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. THOUGH IT IS GETTING LATE IN
THE SEASON...THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
OR A WINTRY MIX NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY ERODED...AND VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLOUDS ARE GATHERING AGAIN TO THE WEST AND POISED TO MOVE THIS WAY
TONIGHT. BUT CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM SHOULD STAY 10000 FT OR
HIGHER.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     24  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    27  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  27  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  28  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      33  53  41  52  47 /   0  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  34  59  44  57  50 /   0  10  20  40  50
TROY        34  58  43  58  50 /   0  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/61








000
FXUS64 KBMX 272052
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A MASSIVE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
COUNTRY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CONFLUENCE ZONE
OF THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A BIT OF A WEDGE SETUP.
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WIDE AREA OF WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A VERY COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO BLAST SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE
A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
FORM A LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY-TITLED TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD...FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE FRONT TO
ADVANCE WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING...LEADING TO A SITUATION
INVOLVING POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. THOUGH IT IS GETTING LATE IN
THE SEASON...THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
OR A WINTRY MIX NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY ERODED...AND VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLOUDS ARE GATHERING AGAIN TO THE WEST AND POISED TO MOVE THIS WAY
TONIGHT. BUT CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM SHOULD STAY 10000 FT OR
HIGHER.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     24  51  37  51  44 /  10  10  20  40  60
ANNISTON    27  54  38  53  45 /  10  10  20  40  60
BIRMINGHAM  27  55  42  55  47 /  10  10  20  40  60
TUSCALOOSA  28  58  42  59  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
CALERA      29  56  43  56  48 /  10  10  20  40  60
AUBURN      33  53  41  52  47 /   0  10  20  40  50
MONTGOMERY  34  59  44  57  50 /   0  10  20  40  50
TROY        34  58  43  58  50 /   0  10  20  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/61









000
FXUS64 KBMX 271749
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1149 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE COLD
ADVECTION COMING OFF THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST FOR THIS HOUR. WILL LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS ACROSS THE
BOARD...WITH A BIT MORE LOWERING IN THE NORTH. WILL ALSO TAKE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO FRESHEN UP THE SKY COVER FORECAST.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY ERODED...AND VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLOUDS ARE GATHERING AGAIN TO THE WEST AND POISED TO MOVE THIS WAY
TONIGHT. BUT CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM SHOULD STAY 10000 FT OR
HIGHER.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 271749
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1149 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE COLD
ADVECTION COMING OFF THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST FOR THIS HOUR. WILL LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS ACROSS THE
BOARD...WITH A BIT MORE LOWERING IN THE NORTH. WILL ALSO TAKE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO FRESHEN UP THE SKY COVER FORECAST.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY ERODED...AND VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLOUDS ARE GATHERING AGAIN TO THE WEST AND POISED TO MOVE THIS WAY
TONIGHT. BUT CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM SHOULD STAY 10000 FT OR
HIGHER.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 271749
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1149 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE COLD
ADVECTION COMING OFF THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST FOR THIS HOUR. WILL LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS ACROSS THE
BOARD...WITH A BIT MORE LOWERING IN THE NORTH. WILL ALSO TAKE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO FRESHEN UP THE SKY COVER FORECAST.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY ERODED...AND VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLOUDS ARE GATHERING AGAIN TO THE WEST AND POISED TO MOVE THIS WAY
TONIGHT. BUT CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM SHOULD STAY 10000 FT OR
HIGHER.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 271749
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1149 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE COLD
ADVECTION COMING OFF THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST FOR THIS HOUR. WILL LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS ACROSS THE
BOARD...WITH A BIT MORE LOWERING IN THE NORTH. WILL ALSO TAKE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO FRESHEN UP THE SKY COVER FORECAST.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY ERODED...AND VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLOUDS ARE GATHERING AGAIN TO THE WEST AND POISED TO MOVE THIS WAY
TONIGHT. BUT CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM SHOULD STAY 10000 FT OR
HIGHER.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 271614
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1014 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE COLD
ADVECTION COMING OFF THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST FOR THIS HOUR. WILL LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS ACROSS THE
BOARD...WITH A BIT MORE LOWERING IN THE NORTH. WILL ALSO TAKE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO FRESHEN UP THE SKY COVER FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT. KMGM COULD OBSERVE
SOME OF THESE CIGS FROM 13 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY THE
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AND MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

56/GDG


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 271614
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1014 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE COLD
ADVECTION COMING OFF THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST FOR THIS HOUR. WILL LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS ACROSS THE
BOARD...WITH A BIT MORE LOWERING IN THE NORTH. WILL ALSO TAKE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO FRESHEN UP THE SKY COVER FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT. KMGM COULD OBSERVE
SOME OF THESE CIGS FROM 13 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY THE
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AND MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

56/GDG


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 271614
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1014 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE COLD
ADVECTION COMING OFF THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST FOR THIS HOUR. WILL LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS ACROSS THE
BOARD...WITH A BIT MORE LOWERING IN THE NORTH. WILL ALSO TAKE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO FRESHEN UP THE SKY COVER FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT. KMGM COULD OBSERVE
SOME OF THESE CIGS FROM 13 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY THE
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AND MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

56/GDG


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 271614
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1014 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS APPEAR TO STILL BE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE COLD
ADVECTION COMING OFF THE SNOW PACK IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST FOR THIS HOUR. WILL LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS ACROSS THE
BOARD...WITH A BIT MORE LOWERING IN THE NORTH. WILL ALSO TAKE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO FRESHEN UP THE SKY COVER FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT. KMGM COULD OBSERVE
SOME OF THESE CIGS FROM 13 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY THE
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AND MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

56/GDG


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 271320
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
720 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

1038 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AND TIGHTER BUT NOT OUTRAGEOUS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING BUT DON`T EXPECT THEM
TO BE TOO ROBUST AS BOUNDARY WAS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND RIDGE WILL
BE SLIDING CLOSER TOWARD INDIANA AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
GRADIENTS WEAKENING TODAY. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT
BUT SHOULD DECREASE SOME DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE CHILLY ACROSS THE NORTH BUT SHOULD SEE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE GREATER SUNSHINE AVAILABLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WE DON`T HAVE THE MORNING STRATUS.
SHOULD FEEL ON COOL SIDE ANYWAY WITH THE WINDS.

ON SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE A CHILLY START WITH EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
ALTHOUGH UPPER FLOW IS SOMEWHAT FLAT...MAY STILL SEE WEAK
DISTURBANCES COMMENCE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP WITH CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
FURTHER ACROSS THE U.S. TO THE EAST OVER OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA ALLOWING
FOR THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO TURN FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY DURING
THE DAY WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE DECREASE IN STRENGTH. GRADIENTS WILL
PICK UP SOME WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW BUT WITH POSSIBLE WEDGING
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM RESPONDING BACK
AS QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND. ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY EARLY
SUNDAY THOUGH AS OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL
INITIALLY.

ON SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUT LACKS THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH
THROUGH ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH AND TO THE EAST ACROSS THE U.S. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEHIND THE MONDAY FRONT IS LAGGING WITH A BROAD
TROUGH AND A DECENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF TO HELP SLOW IT
DOWN WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA. THE MAIN
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHORTWAVES
GIVE RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WE LACK
A GOOD FOCUS WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES WITH THE FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH VERY
POSITIVELY TILTED AND SOMEWHAT FLAT...NOT OVERLY EXCITED FOR
SEVERE AT THIS TIME WITH FRONT ARRIVAL. LEAVING GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW FOR MID WEEK...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY TO ROUND OUT
THE END OF OUR FORECAST.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT. KMGM COULD OBSERVE
SOME OF THESE CIGS FROM 13 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY THE
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AND MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  24  49  36  50 /   0  10  10  10  40
ANNISTON    41  27  51  36  51 /   0  10  10  10  40
BIRMINGHAM  40  27  52  40  54 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  42  27  56  40  57 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      43  30  55  41  55 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      49  32  53  39  52 /   0   0  10  20  40
MONTGOMERY  50  32  57  43  57 /   0   0  10  20  40
TROY        52  33  56  42  57 /   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 271320
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
720 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

1038 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AND TIGHTER BUT NOT OUTRAGEOUS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING BUT DON`T EXPECT THEM
TO BE TOO ROBUST AS BOUNDARY WAS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND RIDGE WILL
BE SLIDING CLOSER TOWARD INDIANA AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
GRADIENTS WEAKENING TODAY. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT
BUT SHOULD DECREASE SOME DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE CHILLY ACROSS THE NORTH BUT SHOULD SEE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE GREATER SUNSHINE AVAILABLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WE DON`T HAVE THE MORNING STRATUS.
SHOULD FEEL ON COOL SIDE ANYWAY WITH THE WINDS.

ON SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE A CHILLY START WITH EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
ALTHOUGH UPPER FLOW IS SOMEWHAT FLAT...MAY STILL SEE WEAK
DISTURBANCES COMMENCE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP WITH CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
FURTHER ACROSS THE U.S. TO THE EAST OVER OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA ALLOWING
FOR THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO TURN FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY DURING
THE DAY WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE DECREASE IN STRENGTH. GRADIENTS WILL
PICK UP SOME WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW BUT WITH POSSIBLE WEDGING
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM RESPONDING BACK
AS QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND. ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY EARLY
SUNDAY THOUGH AS OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL
INITIALLY.

ON SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUT LACKS THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH
THROUGH ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH AND TO THE EAST ACROSS THE U.S. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEHIND THE MONDAY FRONT IS LAGGING WITH A BROAD
TROUGH AND A DECENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF TO HELP SLOW IT
DOWN WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA. THE MAIN
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHORTWAVES
GIVE RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WE LACK
A GOOD FOCUS WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES WITH THE FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH VERY
POSITIVELY TILTED AND SOMEWHAT FLAT...NOT OVERLY EXCITED FOR
SEVERE AT THIS TIME WITH FRONT ARRIVAL. LEAVING GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW FOR MID WEEK...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY TO ROUND OUT
THE END OF OUR FORECAST.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT. KMGM COULD OBSERVE
SOME OF THESE CIGS FROM 13 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY THE
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AND MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  24  49  36  50 /   0  10  10  10  40
ANNISTON    41  27  51  36  51 /   0  10  10  10  40
BIRMINGHAM  40  27  52  40  54 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  42  27  56  40  57 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      43  30  55  41  55 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      49  32  53  39  52 /   0   0  10  20  40
MONTGOMERY  50  32  57  43  57 /   0   0  10  20  40
TROY        52  33  56  42  57 /   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 271320
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
720 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

1038 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AND TIGHTER BUT NOT OUTRAGEOUS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING BUT DON`T EXPECT THEM
TO BE TOO ROBUST AS BOUNDARY WAS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND RIDGE WILL
BE SLIDING CLOSER TOWARD INDIANA AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
GRADIENTS WEAKENING TODAY. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT
BUT SHOULD DECREASE SOME DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE CHILLY ACROSS THE NORTH BUT SHOULD SEE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE GREATER SUNSHINE AVAILABLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WE DON`T HAVE THE MORNING STRATUS.
SHOULD FEEL ON COOL SIDE ANYWAY WITH THE WINDS.

ON SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE A CHILLY START WITH EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
ALTHOUGH UPPER FLOW IS SOMEWHAT FLAT...MAY STILL SEE WEAK
DISTURBANCES COMMENCE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP WITH CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
FURTHER ACROSS THE U.S. TO THE EAST OVER OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA ALLOWING
FOR THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO TURN FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY DURING
THE DAY WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE DECREASE IN STRENGTH. GRADIENTS WILL
PICK UP SOME WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW BUT WITH POSSIBLE WEDGING
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM RESPONDING BACK
AS QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND. ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY EARLY
SUNDAY THOUGH AS OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL
INITIALLY.

ON SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUT LACKS THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH
THROUGH ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH AND TO THE EAST ACROSS THE U.S. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEHIND THE MONDAY FRONT IS LAGGING WITH A BROAD
TROUGH AND A DECENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF TO HELP SLOW IT
DOWN WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA. THE MAIN
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHORTWAVES
GIVE RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WE LACK
A GOOD FOCUS WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES WITH THE FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH VERY
POSITIVELY TILTED AND SOMEWHAT FLAT...NOT OVERLY EXCITED FOR
SEVERE AT THIS TIME WITH FRONT ARRIVAL. LEAVING GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW FOR MID WEEK...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY TO ROUND OUT
THE END OF OUR FORECAST.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT. KMGM COULD OBSERVE
SOME OF THESE CIGS FROM 13 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY THE
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AND MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  24  49  36  50 /   0  10  10  10  40
ANNISTON    41  27  51  36  51 /   0  10  10  10  40
BIRMINGHAM  40  27  52  40  54 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  42  27  56  40  57 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      43  30  55  41  55 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      49  32  53  39  52 /   0   0  10  20  40
MONTGOMERY  50  32  57  43  57 /   0   0  10  20  40
TROY        52  33  56  42  57 /   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 271115
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
515 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

1038 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AND TIGHTER BUT NOT OUTRAGEOUS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING BUT DON`T EXPECT THEM
TO BE TOO ROBUST AS BOUNDARY WAS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND RIDGE WILL
BE SLIDING CLOSER TOWARD INDIANA AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
GRADIENTS WEAKENING TODAY. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT
BUT SHOULD DECREASE SOME DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE CHILLY ACROSS THE NORTH BUT SHOULD SEE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE GREATER SUNSHINE AVAILABLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WE DON`T HAVE THE MORNING STRATUS.
SHOULD FEEL ON COOL SIDE ANYWAY WITH THE WINDS.

ON SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE A CHILLY START WITH EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
ALTHOUGH UPPER FLOW IS SOMEWHAT FLAT...MAY STILL SEE WEAK
DISTURBANCES COMMENCE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP WITH CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
FURTHER ACROSS THE U.S. TO THE EAST OVER OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA ALLOWING
FOR THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO TURN FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY DURING
THE DAY WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE DECREASE IN STRENGTH. GRADIENTS WILL
PICK UP SOME WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW BUT WITH POSSIBLE WEDGING
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM RESPONDING BACK
AS QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND. ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY EARLY
SUNDAY THOUGH AS OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL
INITIALLY.

ON SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUT LACKS THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH
THROUGH ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH AND TO THE EAST ACROSS THE U.S. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEHIND THE MONDAY FRONT IS LAGGING WITH A BROAD
TROUGH AND A DECENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF TO HELP SLOW IT
DOWN WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA. THE MAIN
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHORTWAVES
GIVE RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WE LACK
A GOOD FOCUS WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES WITH THE FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH VERY
POSITIVELY TILTED AND SOMEWHAT FLAT...NOT OVERLY EXCITED FOR
SEVERE AT THIS TIME WITH FRONT ARRIVAL. LEAVING GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW FOR MID WEEK...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY TO ROUND OUT
THE END OF OUR FORECAST.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA IN AREA
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE FOG IS AFFECTING KASN AND KANB
AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...FZFG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
KASN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 08Z AND
THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE DENSE FOG AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 8-10 KNOTS. THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF CIGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. CIGS MAY INITIALLY START AT 3500 FEET BUT
SHOULD LOWER TO 1500-2000 FEET BY 1200 UTC. AN INVERSION ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE CIGS INTACT THRU THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS
TO SCATTER BY 21Z AT MOST LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT
CIGS TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KMGM AND KTOI.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  24  49  36  50 /   0  10  10  10  40
ANNISTON    41  27  51  36  51 /   0  10  10  10  40
BIRMINGHAM  40  27  52  40  54 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  42  27  56  40  57 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      43  30  55  41  55 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      49  32  53  39  52 /   0   0  10  20  40
MONTGOMERY  50  32  57  43  57 /   0   0  10  20  40
TROY        52  33  56  42  57 /   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/58







000
FXUS64 KBMX 271115
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
515 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

1038 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AND TIGHTER BUT NOT OUTRAGEOUS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING BUT DON`T EXPECT THEM
TO BE TOO ROBUST AS BOUNDARY WAS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND RIDGE WILL
BE SLIDING CLOSER TOWARD INDIANA AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
GRADIENTS WEAKENING TODAY. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT
BUT SHOULD DECREASE SOME DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE CHILLY ACROSS THE NORTH BUT SHOULD SEE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE GREATER SUNSHINE AVAILABLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WE DON`T HAVE THE MORNING STRATUS.
SHOULD FEEL ON COOL SIDE ANYWAY WITH THE WINDS.

ON SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE A CHILLY START WITH EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
ALTHOUGH UPPER FLOW IS SOMEWHAT FLAT...MAY STILL SEE WEAK
DISTURBANCES COMMENCE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP WITH CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
FURTHER ACROSS THE U.S. TO THE EAST OVER OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA ALLOWING
FOR THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO TURN FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY DURING
THE DAY WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE DECREASE IN STRENGTH. GRADIENTS WILL
PICK UP SOME WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW BUT WITH POSSIBLE WEDGING
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM RESPONDING BACK
AS QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND. ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY EARLY
SUNDAY THOUGH AS OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL
INITIALLY.

ON SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUT LACKS THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH
THROUGH ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH AND TO THE EAST ACROSS THE U.S. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEHIND THE MONDAY FRONT IS LAGGING WITH A BROAD
TROUGH AND A DECENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF TO HELP SLOW IT
DOWN WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA. THE MAIN
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHORTWAVES
GIVE RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WE LACK
A GOOD FOCUS WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES WITH THE FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH VERY
POSITIVELY TILTED AND SOMEWHAT FLAT...NOT OVERLY EXCITED FOR
SEVERE AT THIS TIME WITH FRONT ARRIVAL. LEAVING GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW FOR MID WEEK...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY TO ROUND OUT
THE END OF OUR FORECAST.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA IN AREA
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE FOG IS AFFECTING KASN AND KANB
AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...FZFG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
KASN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 08Z AND
THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE DENSE FOG AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 8-10 KNOTS. THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF CIGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. CIGS MAY INITIALLY START AT 3500 FEET BUT
SHOULD LOWER TO 1500-2000 FEET BY 1200 UTC. AN INVERSION ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE CIGS INTACT THRU THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS
TO SCATTER BY 21Z AT MOST LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT
CIGS TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KMGM AND KTOI.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  24  49  36  50 /   0  10  10  10  40
ANNISTON    41  27  51  36  51 /   0  10  10  10  40
BIRMINGHAM  40  27  52  40  54 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  42  27  56  40  57 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      43  30  55  41  55 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      49  32  53  39  52 /   0   0  10  20  40
MONTGOMERY  50  32  57  43  57 /   0   0  10  20  40
TROY        52  33  56  42  57 /   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/58






000
FXUS64 KBMX 270546
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED NW AL AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THRU
THE NIGHT. SEEING SOME LIGHT FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
CLOUD FREE AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A BIT QUICKER. HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR AREAS WITHIN ABOUT 40-50 MILES ON
EITHER SIDE OF I-20 THRU MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE
THE FOG. ALSO INCREASED LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR NW DUE TO
MORE PROLONGED CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 20S
NORTHERN HALF AND UPPER 20S/LOW 30S SOUTHERN HALF. UPDATES WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA IN AREA
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE FOG IS AFFECTING KASN AND KANB
AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...FZFG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
KASN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 08Z AND
THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE DENSE FOG AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 8-10 KNOTS. THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF CIGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. CIGS MAY INITIALLY START AT 3500 FEET BUT
SHOULD LOWER TO 1500-2000 FEET BY 1200 UTC. AN INVERSION ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE CIGS INTACT THRU THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS
TO SCATTER BY 21Z AT MOST LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT
CIGS TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KMGM AND KTOI.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  38  24  48  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    24  41  26  50  37 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  24  40  27  52  39 /  10  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  27  42  27  55  41 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      25  43  29  54  40 /  10  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      29  49  31  52  39 /   0  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  29  49  31  57  43 /   0  10  10  10  20
TROY        31  53  32  56  43 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 270546
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED NW AL AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THRU
THE NIGHT. SEEING SOME LIGHT FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
CLOUD FREE AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A BIT QUICKER. HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR AREAS WITHIN ABOUT 40-50 MILES ON
EITHER SIDE OF I-20 THRU MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE
THE FOG. ALSO INCREASED LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR NW DUE TO
MORE PROLONGED CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 20S
NORTHERN HALF AND UPPER 20S/LOW 30S SOUTHERN HALF. UPDATES WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.

19


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA IN AREA
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE FOG IS AFFECTING KASN AND KANB
AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...FZFG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
KASN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 08Z AND
THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE DENSE FOG AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 8-10 KNOTS. THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF CIGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. CIGS MAY INITIALLY START AT 3500 FEET BUT
SHOULD LOWER TO 1500-2000 FEET BY 1200 UTC. AN INVERSION ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE CIGS INTACT THRU THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS
TO SCATTER BY 21Z AT MOST LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT
CIGS TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KMGM AND KTOI.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  38  24  48  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    24  41  26  50  37 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  24  40  27  52  39 /  10  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  27  42  27  55  41 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      25  43  29  54  40 /  10  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      29  49  31  52  39 /   0  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  29  49  31  57  43 /   0  10  10  10  20
TROY        31  53  32  56  43 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 270253
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
853 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED NW AL AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THRU
THE NIGHT. SEEING SOME LIGHT FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
CLOUD FREE AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A BIT QUICKER. HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR AREAS WITHIN ABOUT 40-50 MILES ON
EITHER SIDE OF I-20 THRU MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE
THE FOG. ALSO INCREASED LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR NW DUE TO
MORE PROLONGED CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 20S
NORTHERN HALF AND UPPER 20S/LOW 30S SOUTHERN HALF. UPDATES WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TWO CLOUD DECKS HAVE SEPARATED OVER ALABAMA WITH ONE DECK EXITING
OUT OF EAST ALABAMA AND ANOTHER DECK OVER NW ALABAMA. THE DECK
OVER NW ALABAMA IS ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE CIG HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BUT
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS HIGHER CIGS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
1000-1500 FT CIGS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA STARTING IN THE 05-08Z TIME
RANGE AND MVFR CIGS AT KMGM AND KTOI. AN INVERSION ALOFT COULD
KEEP THE CIGS IN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 303 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

CURRENTLY LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE ARE A WHOLE MORE CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON
THAT THERE REALLY IS. THAT IS DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK IN THE
NORTH. EVEN WITH THAT SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP NICELY
IN THE WEST. MEANWHILE AREAS IN THE EAST ARE ACTUALLY COOLER THAN
THOSE IN THE WEST AS THE THICKER STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE NOT ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO GO FAR. CALERA WAS 33 AT 7 THIS MORNING AND STILL
SITTING AT 37 THIS AFTERNOON AND NO SNOW...WHEREAS HALEYVILLE WITH
A FOOT OF SNOW IS SITTING AT 38...WITH SOME SUN.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY SLIDE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH IN THE EAST. MAINLY LOOKING AT CLOUD COVER WITH
THIS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE
NORTH. FOR NOW LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE EVENING SHIFT
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON IT TO SEE IF IT NEEDS TO BE ADDED.

OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE THE MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED IN NEXT WEEK. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SEVERAL WAVES OF RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. WE WILL HAVE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL
STALL OUT EITHER JUST NORTH OR RIGHT IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH WORKS IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT THURSDAY. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE LAST FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ON TIMES OF THIS FINAL
FRONT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO AS CONFIDENCE ON
ANY DAY JUST IS NOT THERE. MUCH MORE ON THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  38  24  48  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    24  41  26  50  37 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  24  40  27  52  39 /  10  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  27  42  27  55  41 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      25  43  29  54  40 /  10  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      29  49  31  52  39 /   0  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  29  49  31  57  43 /   0  10  10  10  20
TROY        31  53  32  56  43 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 270253
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
853 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED NW AL AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THRU
THE NIGHT. SEEING SOME LIGHT FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
CLOUD FREE AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A BIT QUICKER. HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG FOR AREAS WITHIN ABOUT 40-50 MILES ON
EITHER SIDE OF I-20 THRU MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE
THE FOG. ALSO INCREASED LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR NW DUE TO
MORE PROLONGED CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 20S
NORTHERN HALF AND UPPER 20S/LOW 30S SOUTHERN HALF. UPDATES WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TWO CLOUD DECKS HAVE SEPARATED OVER ALABAMA WITH ONE DECK EXITING
OUT OF EAST ALABAMA AND ANOTHER DECK OVER NW ALABAMA. THE DECK
OVER NW ALABAMA IS ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE CIG HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BUT
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS HIGHER CIGS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
1000-1500 FT CIGS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA STARTING IN THE 05-08Z TIME
RANGE AND MVFR CIGS AT KMGM AND KTOI. AN INVERSION ALOFT COULD
KEEP THE CIGS IN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 303 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

CURRENTLY LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE ARE A WHOLE MORE CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON
THAT THERE REALLY IS. THAT IS DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK IN THE
NORTH. EVEN WITH THAT SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP NICELY
IN THE WEST. MEANWHILE AREAS IN THE EAST ARE ACTUALLY COOLER THAN
THOSE IN THE WEST AS THE THICKER STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE NOT ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO GO FAR. CALERA WAS 33 AT 7 THIS MORNING AND STILL
SITTING AT 37 THIS AFTERNOON AND NO SNOW...WHEREAS HALEYVILLE WITH
A FOOT OF SNOW IS SITTING AT 38...WITH SOME SUN.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY SLIDE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH IN THE EAST. MAINLY LOOKING AT CLOUD COVER WITH
THIS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE
NORTH. FOR NOW LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE EVENING SHIFT
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON IT TO SEE IF IT NEEDS TO BE ADDED.

OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE THE MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED IN NEXT WEEK. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SEVERAL WAVES OF RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. WE WILL HAVE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL
STALL OUT EITHER JUST NORTH OR RIGHT IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH WORKS IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT THURSDAY. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE LAST FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ON TIMES OF THIS FINAL
FRONT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO AS CONFIDENCE ON
ANY DAY JUST IS NOT THERE. MUCH MORE ON THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  38  24  48  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    24  41  26  50  37 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  24  40  27  52  39 /  10  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  27  42  27  55  41 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      25  43  29  54  40 /  10  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      29  49  31  52  39 /   0  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  29  49  31  57  43 /   0  10  10  10  20
TROY        31  53  32  56  43 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 262343
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
543 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE ARE A WHOLE MORE CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON
THAT THERE REALLY IS. THAT IS DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK IN THE
NORTH. EVEN WITH THAT SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP NICELY
IN THE WEST. MEANWHILE AREAS IN THE EAST ARE ACTUALLY COOLER THAN
THOSE IN THE WEST AS THE THICKER STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE NOT ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO GO FAR. CALERA WAS 33 AT 7 THIS MORNING AND STILL
SITTING AT 37 THIS AFTERNOON AND NO SNOW...WHEREAS HALEYVILLE WITH
A FOOT OF SNOW IS SITTING AT 38...WITH SOME SUN.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY SLIDE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH IN THE EAST. MAINLY LOOKING AT CLOUD COVER WITH
THIS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE
NORTH. FOR NOW LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE EVENING SHIFT
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON IT TO SEE IF IT NEEDS TO BE ADDED.

OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE THE MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED IN NEXT WEEK. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SEVERAL WAVES OF RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. WE WILL HAVE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL
STALL OUT EITHER JUST NORTH OR RIGHT IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH WORKS IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT THURSDAY. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE LAST FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ON TIMES OF THIS FINAL
FRONT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO AS CONFIDENCE ON
ANY DAY JUST IS NOT THERE. MUCH MORE ON THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TWO CLOUD DECKS HAVE SEPARATED OVER ALABAMA WITH ONE DECK EXITING
OUT OF EAST ALABAMA AND ANOTHER DECK OVER NW ALABAMA. THE DECK
OVER NW ALABAMA IS ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE CIG HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BUT
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS HIGHER CIGS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
1000-1500 FT CIGS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA STARTING IN THE 05-08Z TIME
RANGE AND MVFR CIGS AT KMGM AND KTOI. AN INVERSION ALOFT COULD
KEEP THE CIGS IN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  38  24  48  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    24  41  26  50  37 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  24  40  27  52  39 /  10  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  27  42  27  55  41 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      25  43  29  54  40 /  10  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      29  49  31  52  39 /  10  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  29  49  31  57  43 /   0  10  10  10  20
TROY        31  53  32  56  43 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 262343
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
543 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE ARE A WHOLE MORE CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON
THAT THERE REALLY IS. THAT IS DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK IN THE
NORTH. EVEN WITH THAT SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP NICELY
IN THE WEST. MEANWHILE AREAS IN THE EAST ARE ACTUALLY COOLER THAN
THOSE IN THE WEST AS THE THICKER STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE NOT ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO GO FAR. CALERA WAS 33 AT 7 THIS MORNING AND STILL
SITTING AT 37 THIS AFTERNOON AND NO SNOW...WHEREAS HALEYVILLE WITH
A FOOT OF SNOW IS SITTING AT 38...WITH SOME SUN.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY SLIDE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH IN THE EAST. MAINLY LOOKING AT CLOUD COVER WITH
THIS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE
NORTH. FOR NOW LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE EVENING SHIFT
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON IT TO SEE IF IT NEEDS TO BE ADDED.

OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE THE MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED IN NEXT WEEK. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SEVERAL WAVES OF RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. WE WILL HAVE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL
STALL OUT EITHER JUST NORTH OR RIGHT IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH WORKS IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT THURSDAY. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE LAST FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ON TIMES OF THIS FINAL
FRONT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO AS CONFIDENCE ON
ANY DAY JUST IS NOT THERE. MUCH MORE ON THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TWO CLOUD DECKS HAVE SEPARATED OVER ALABAMA WITH ONE DECK EXITING
OUT OF EAST ALABAMA AND ANOTHER DECK OVER NW ALABAMA. THE DECK
OVER NW ALABAMA IS ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE CIG HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BUT
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS HIGHER CIGS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
1000-1500 FT CIGS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA STARTING IN THE 05-08Z TIME
RANGE AND MVFR CIGS AT KMGM AND KTOI. AN INVERSION ALOFT COULD
KEEP THE CIGS IN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  38  24  48  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    24  41  26  50  37 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  24  40  27  52  39 /  10  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  27  42  27  55  41 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      25  43  29  54  40 /  10  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      29  49  31  52  39 /  10  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  29  49  31  57  43 /   0  10  10  10  20
TROY        31  53  32  56  43 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 262343
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
543 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE ARE A WHOLE MORE CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON
THAT THERE REALLY IS. THAT IS DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK IN THE
NORTH. EVEN WITH THAT SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP NICELY
IN THE WEST. MEANWHILE AREAS IN THE EAST ARE ACTUALLY COOLER THAN
THOSE IN THE WEST AS THE THICKER STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE NOT ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO GO FAR. CALERA WAS 33 AT 7 THIS MORNING AND STILL
SITTING AT 37 THIS AFTERNOON AND NO SNOW...WHEREAS HALEYVILLE WITH
A FOOT OF SNOW IS SITTING AT 38...WITH SOME SUN.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY SLIDE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH IN THE EAST. MAINLY LOOKING AT CLOUD COVER WITH
THIS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE
NORTH. FOR NOW LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE EVENING SHIFT
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON IT TO SEE IF IT NEEDS TO BE ADDED.

OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE THE MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED IN NEXT WEEK. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SEVERAL WAVES OF RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. WE WILL HAVE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL
STALL OUT EITHER JUST NORTH OR RIGHT IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH WORKS IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT THURSDAY. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE LAST FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ON TIMES OF THIS FINAL
FRONT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO AS CONFIDENCE ON
ANY DAY JUST IS NOT THERE. MUCH MORE ON THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TWO CLOUD DECKS HAVE SEPARATED OVER ALABAMA WITH ONE DECK EXITING
OUT OF EAST ALABAMA AND ANOTHER DECK OVER NW ALABAMA. THE DECK
OVER NW ALABAMA IS ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE CIG HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BUT
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS HIGHER CIGS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
1000-1500 FT CIGS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA STARTING IN THE 05-08Z TIME
RANGE AND MVFR CIGS AT KMGM AND KTOI. AN INVERSION ALOFT COULD
KEEP THE CIGS IN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  38  24  48  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    24  41  26  50  37 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  24  40  27  52  39 /  10  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  27  42  27  55  41 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      25  43  29  54  40 /  10  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      29  49  31  52  39 /  10  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  29  49  31  57  43 /   0  10  10  10  20
TROY        31  53  32  56  43 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 262103
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
303 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE ARE A WHOLE MORE CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON
THAT THERE REALLY IS. THAT IS DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK IN THE
NORTH. EVEN WITH THAT SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP NICELY
IN THE WEST. MEANWHILE AREAS IN THE EAST ARE ACTUALLY COOLER THAN
THOSE IN THE WEST AS THE THICKER STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE NOT ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO GO FAR. CALERA WAS 33 AT 7 THIS MORNING AND STILL
SITTING AT 37 THIS AFTERNOON AND NO SNOW...WHEREAS HALEYVILLE WITH
A FOOT OF SNOW IS SITTING AT 38...WITH SOME SUN.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY SLIDE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH IN THE EAST. MAINLY LOOKING AT CLOUD COVER WITH
THIS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE
NORTH. FOR NOW LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE EVENING SHIFT
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON IT TO SEE IF IT NEEDS TO BE ADDED.

OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE THE MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED IN NEXT WEEK. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SEVERAL WAVES OF RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. WE WILL HAVE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL
STALL OUT EITHER JUST NORTH OR RIGHT IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH WORKS IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT THURSDAY. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE LAST FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ON TIMES OF THIS FINAL
FRONT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO AS CONFIDENCE ON
ANY DAY JUST IS NOT THERE. MUCH MORE ON THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HEAVY SNOWPACK UNDERNEATH IS MAKING IT HARD TO SEE THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NORTH OF TCL/BHM. DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME HOLES/LARGE GAPS NORTH OF TCL...WHICH SHOULD
WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH INTO THAT TERMINAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST 50 PERCENT
COVERAGE.

COMPUTER MODELS ARE GIVING AN INDICATION THAT CLOUDS THICKEN AND
LOWER ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING TO 1000 FEET OR
LOWER ONCE AGAIN. MODELS DO HAVE A TOUGH TIME HANDLING LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS AFTER A CLIMATOLOGICALLY ANOMALOUS SNOWFALL LIKE WE`VE
HAD. BUT I DON`T THINK THE GENERAL IDEA OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO LOW CEILINGS IS SOUND.

/61/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  38  24  48  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    24  41  26  50  37 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  24  40  27  52  39 /  10  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  27  42  27  55  41 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      25  43  29  54  40 /  10  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      29  49  31  52  39 /  10  10  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  29  49  31  57  43 /   0  10  10  10  20
TROY        31  53  32  56  43 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 261755
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1155 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOW THAT WE HAVE A PRETTY FIRM GRASP ON THE EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW PACK...I THINK WE CAN GET A SENSE OF WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY. EVEN IN THE BEST OF CONDITIONS (DRY
GROUND...NEUTRAL ADVECTION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES)...WE
WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT ONLY A 10 DEGREE WARM UP AFTER 10 AM.
HALEYVILLE SHOWS A TEMP OF 30 DEGREES AT 10 AM...BUT WITH A SOLID
SNOW COVER AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS. IT IS GOING TO BE A
STRUGGLE TO HIT 40 THERE TODAY...I SUSPECT. PLAN ON TRIMMING DOWN
MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY BY A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OR
SO. NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO WORRY ABOUT...AND NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HEAVY SNOWPACK UNDERNEATH IS MAKING IT HARD TO SEE THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NORTH OF TCL/BHM. DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME HOLES/LARGE GAPS NORTH OF TCL...WHICH SHOULD
WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH INTO THAT TERMINAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST 50 PERCENT
COVERAGE.

COMPUTER MODELS ARE GIVING AN INDICATION THAT CLOUDS THICKEN AND
LOWER ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING TO 1000 FEET OR
LOWER ONCE AGAIN. MODELS DO HAVE A TOUGH TIME HANDLING LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS AFTER A CLIMATOLOGICALLY ANOMALOUS SNOWFALL LIKE WE`VE
HAD. BUT I DON`T THINK THE GENERAL IDEA OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO LOW CEILINGS IS SOUND.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 261755
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1155 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOW THAT WE HAVE A PRETTY FIRM GRASP ON THE EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW PACK...I THINK WE CAN GET A SENSE OF WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY. EVEN IN THE BEST OF CONDITIONS (DRY
GROUND...NEUTRAL ADVECTION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES)...WE
WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT ONLY A 10 DEGREE WARM UP AFTER 10 AM.
HALEYVILLE SHOWS A TEMP OF 30 DEGREES AT 10 AM...BUT WITH A SOLID
SNOW COVER AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS. IT IS GOING TO BE A
STRUGGLE TO HIT 40 THERE TODAY...I SUSPECT. PLAN ON TRIMMING DOWN
MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY BY A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OR
SO. NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO WORRY ABOUT...AND NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HEAVY SNOWPACK UNDERNEATH IS MAKING IT HARD TO SEE THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NORTH OF TCL/BHM. DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME HOLES/LARGE GAPS NORTH OF TCL...WHICH SHOULD
WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH INTO THAT TERMINAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST 50 PERCENT
COVERAGE.

COMPUTER MODELS ARE GIVING AN INDICATION THAT CLOUDS THICKEN AND
LOWER ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING TO 1000 FEET OR
LOWER ONCE AGAIN. MODELS DO HAVE A TOUGH TIME HANDLING LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS AFTER A CLIMATOLOGICALLY ANOMALOUS SNOWFALL LIKE WE`VE
HAD. BUT I DON`T THINK THE GENERAL IDEA OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO LOW CEILINGS IS SOUND.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 261755
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1155 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOW THAT WE HAVE A PRETTY FIRM GRASP ON THE EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW PACK...I THINK WE CAN GET A SENSE OF WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY. EVEN IN THE BEST OF CONDITIONS (DRY
GROUND...NEUTRAL ADVECTION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES)...WE
WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT ONLY A 10 DEGREE WARM UP AFTER 10 AM.
HALEYVILLE SHOWS A TEMP OF 30 DEGREES AT 10 AM...BUT WITH A SOLID
SNOW COVER AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS. IT IS GOING TO BE A
STRUGGLE TO HIT 40 THERE TODAY...I SUSPECT. PLAN ON TRIMMING DOWN
MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY BY A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OR
SO. NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO WORRY ABOUT...AND NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HEAVY SNOWPACK UNDERNEATH IS MAKING IT HARD TO SEE THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NORTH OF TCL/BHM. DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME HOLES/LARGE GAPS NORTH OF TCL...WHICH SHOULD
WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH INTO THAT TERMINAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST 50 PERCENT
COVERAGE.

COMPUTER MODELS ARE GIVING AN INDICATION THAT CLOUDS THICKEN AND
LOWER ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS DROPPING TO 1000 FEET OR
LOWER ONCE AGAIN. MODELS DO HAVE A TOUGH TIME HANDLING LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS AFTER A CLIMATOLOGICALLY ANOMALOUS SNOWFALL LIKE WE`VE
HAD. BUT I DON`T THINK THE GENERAL IDEA OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO LOW CEILINGS IS SOUND.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 261620
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1020 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOW THAT WE HAVE A PRETTY FIRM GRASP ON THE EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW PACK...I THINK WE CAN GET A SENSE OF WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY. EVEN IN THE BEST OF CONDITIONS (DRY
GROUND...NEUTRAL ADVECTION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES)...WE
WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT ONLY A 10 DEGREE WARM UP AFTER 10 AM.
HALEYVILLE SHOWS A TEMP OF 30 DEGREES AT 10 AM...BUT WITH A SOLID
SNOW COVER AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS. IT IS GOING TO BE A
STRUGGLE TO HIT 40 THERE TODAY...I SUSPECT. PLAN ON TRIMMING DOWN
MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY BY A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OR
SO. NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO WORRY ABOUT...AND NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CIGS ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY FOR
CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS. IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z AT
THE LATEST...GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY...AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED
DOWNWARD WITH CIGS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY TODAY.

56/GDG


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 261620
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1020 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOW THAT WE HAVE A PRETTY FIRM GRASP ON THE EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW PACK...I THINK WE CAN GET A SENSE OF WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY. EVEN IN THE BEST OF CONDITIONS (DRY
GROUND...NEUTRAL ADVECTION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES)...WE
WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT ONLY A 10 DEGREE WARM UP AFTER 10 AM.
HALEYVILLE SHOWS A TEMP OF 30 DEGREES AT 10 AM...BUT WITH A SOLID
SNOW COVER AND QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS. IT IS GOING TO BE A
STRUGGLE TO HIT 40 THERE TODAY...I SUSPECT. PLAN ON TRIMMING DOWN
MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY BY A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OR
SO. NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO WORRY ABOUT...AND NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CIGS ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY FOR
CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS. IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z AT
THE LATEST...GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY...AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED
DOWNWARD WITH CIGS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY TODAY.

56/GDG


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 261209
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
609 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG 1044 MB RIDGE OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS ON TODAY WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE LINGERING
SHALLOW MOISTURE SOME FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ON ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHEAST. ALSO MAINLY LOW STRATUS THIS AM BUT A FEW PATCHES
OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING TO BE MEASURING
THOUGH. A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH AS WELL TODAY...BUT AGAIN OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW
SO THINK THAT WILL AIDE MAINLY IN CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...
NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE
FOR TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
IOWA/MISSOURI.

ON SATURDAY...WITH A FLAT UPPER FLOW...THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER
ACROSS THE U.S. TO THE EAST OVER OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE DAY
AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WITH ONLY A
MINIMAL DECREASE IN STRENGTH. THIS WILL CUT OFF OUR STRAIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW BUT SOME WEDGING WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM RESPONDING BACK AS QUICKLY.
ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY EARLY SUNDAY THOUGH AS OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED INITIALLY.

ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUT LACKS THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH
THROUGH ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE NORTH
AND TO THE EAST ACROSS THE U.S. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEHIND THE MONDAY FRONT IS LAGGING WITH A BROAD
TROUGH AND AN UNHELPFUL WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHORTWAVES GIVE RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING/
STRENGTH ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW BUT WILL FORGO ANY SEVERE
MENTION IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CIGS ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY FOR
CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS. IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z AT
THE LATEST...GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY...AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED
DOWNWARD WITH CIGS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY TODAY.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     40  25  39  24  47 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    42  26  41  26  49 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  42  25  40  27  51 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  44  27  42  27  54 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      43  28  43  29  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      47  31  48  31  51 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  46  31  49  31  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        46  32  51  32  55 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 261209
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
609 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG 1044 MB RIDGE OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS ON TODAY WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE LINGERING
SHALLOW MOISTURE SOME FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ON ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHEAST. ALSO MAINLY LOW STRATUS THIS AM BUT A FEW PATCHES
OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING TO BE MEASURING
THOUGH. A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH AS WELL TODAY...BUT AGAIN OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW
SO THINK THAT WILL AIDE MAINLY IN CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...
NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE
FOR TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
IOWA/MISSOURI.

ON SATURDAY...WITH A FLAT UPPER FLOW...THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER
ACROSS THE U.S. TO THE EAST OVER OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE DAY
AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WITH ONLY A
MINIMAL DECREASE IN STRENGTH. THIS WILL CUT OFF OUR STRAIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW BUT SOME WEDGING WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM RESPONDING BACK AS QUICKLY.
ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY EARLY SUNDAY THOUGH AS OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED INITIALLY.

ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUT LACKS THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH
THROUGH ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE NORTH
AND TO THE EAST ACROSS THE U.S. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEHIND THE MONDAY FRONT IS LAGGING WITH A BROAD
TROUGH AND AN UNHELPFUL WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHORTWAVES GIVE RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING/
STRENGTH ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW BUT WILL FORGO ANY SEVERE
MENTION IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CIGS ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY FOR
CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS. IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z AT
THE LATEST...GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY...AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED
DOWNWARD WITH CIGS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY TODAY.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     40  25  39  24  47 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    42  26  41  26  49 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  42  25  40  27  51 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  44  27  42  27  54 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      43  28  43  29  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      47  31  48  31  51 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  46  31  49  31  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        46  32  51  32  55 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 261209
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
609 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG 1044 MB RIDGE OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS ON TODAY WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE LINGERING
SHALLOW MOISTURE SOME FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ON ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHEAST. ALSO MAINLY LOW STRATUS THIS AM BUT A FEW PATCHES
OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING TO BE MEASURING
THOUGH. A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH AS WELL TODAY...BUT AGAIN OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW
SO THINK THAT WILL AIDE MAINLY IN CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...
NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE
FOR TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
IOWA/MISSOURI.

ON SATURDAY...WITH A FLAT UPPER FLOW...THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER
ACROSS THE U.S. TO THE EAST OVER OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE DAY
AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WITH ONLY A
MINIMAL DECREASE IN STRENGTH. THIS WILL CUT OFF OUR STRAIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW BUT SOME WEDGING WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM RESPONDING BACK AS QUICKLY.
ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY EARLY SUNDAY THOUGH AS OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED INITIALLY.

ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUT LACKS THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH
THROUGH ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE NORTH
AND TO THE EAST ACROSS THE U.S. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEHIND THE MONDAY FRONT IS LAGGING WITH A BROAD
TROUGH AND AN UNHELPFUL WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHORTWAVES GIVE RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING/
STRENGTH ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW BUT WILL FORGO ANY SEVERE
MENTION IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CIGS ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY FOR
CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS. IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z AT
THE LATEST...GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY...AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TRENDED
DOWNWARD WITH CIGS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY TODAY.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     40  25  39  24  47 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    42  26  41  26  49 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  42  25  40  27  51 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  44  27  42  27  54 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      43  28  43  29  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      47  31  48  31  51 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  46  31  49  31  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        46  32  51  32  55 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 261124
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
524 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG 1044 MB RIDGE OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS ON TODAY WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE LINGERING
SHALLOW MOISTURE SOME FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ON ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHEAST. ALSO MAINLY LOW STRATUS THIS AM BUT A FEW PATCHES
OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING TO BE MEASURING
THOUGH. A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH AS WELL TODAY...BUT AGAIN OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW
SO THINK THAT WILL AIDE MAINLY IN CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...
NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE
FOR TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
IOWA/MISSOURI.

ON SATURDAY...WITH A FLAT UPPER FLOW...THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER
ACROSS THE U.S. TO THE EAST OVER OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE DAY
AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WITH ONLY A
MINIMAL DECREASE IN STRENGTH. THIS WILL CUT OFF OUR STRAIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW BUT SOME WEDGING WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM RESPONDING BACK AS QUICKLY.
ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY EARLY SUNDAY THOUGH AS OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED INITIALLY.

ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUT LACKS THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH
THROUGH ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE NORTH
AND TO THE EAST ACROSS THE U.S. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEHIND THE MONDAY FRONT IS LAGGING WITH A BROAD
TROUGH AND AN UNHELPFUL WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHORTWAVES GIVE RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING/
STRENGTH ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW BUT WILL FORGO ANY SEVERE
MENTION IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY IFR OVERNIGHT BUT MANY
LOCATIONS ARE BOUNCING AROUND. WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FURTHER TO
THE WEST AND COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY 15-18Z WITH CEILINGS GOING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     40  25  39  24  47 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    42  26  41  26  49 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  42  25  40  27  51 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  44  27  42  27  54 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      43  28  43  29  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      47  31  48  31  51 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  46  31  49  31  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        46  32  51  32  55 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/05






000
FXUS64 KBMX 261124
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
524 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG 1044 MB RIDGE OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS ON TODAY WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE LINGERING
SHALLOW MOISTURE SOME FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ON ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHEAST. ALSO MAINLY LOW STRATUS THIS AM BUT A FEW PATCHES
OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING TO BE MEASURING
THOUGH. A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH AS WELL TODAY...BUT AGAIN OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS SHALLOW
SO THINK THAT WILL AIDE MAINLY IN CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...
NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE
FOR TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
IOWA/MISSOURI.

ON SATURDAY...WITH A FLAT UPPER FLOW...THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER
ACROSS THE U.S. TO THE EAST OVER OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE DAY
AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WITH ONLY A
MINIMAL DECREASE IN STRENGTH. THIS WILL CUT OFF OUR STRAIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW BUT SOME WEDGING WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FROM RESPONDING BACK AS QUICKLY.
ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY EARLY SUNDAY THOUGH AS OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED INITIALLY.

ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUT LACKS THE UPPER SUPPORT TO PUSH
THROUGH ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE NORTH
AND TO THE EAST ACROSS THE U.S. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEHIND THE MONDAY FRONT IS LAGGING WITH A BROAD
TROUGH AND AN UNHELPFUL WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHORTWAVES GIVE RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING/
STRENGTH ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW BUT WILL FORGO ANY SEVERE
MENTION IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY IFR OVERNIGHT BUT MANY
LOCATIONS ARE BOUNCING AROUND. WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FURTHER TO
THE WEST AND COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY 15-18Z WITH CEILINGS GOING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     40  25  39  24  47 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    42  26  41  26  49 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  42  25  40  27  51 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  44  27  42  27  54 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      43  28  43  29  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      47  31  48  31  51 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  46  31  49  31  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        46  32  51  32  55 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/05







000
FXUS64 KBMX 260533
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1133 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A HISTORIC WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE COME IN ACROSS MARION COUNTY AS HIGH AS 10
INCHES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS A FOOT OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. THESE AMOUNTS ARE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SINCE 1993. IN ADDITION... HEAVY WET SNOW HAVE
CAUSED SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THUNDERSNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM IN
CHEROKEE COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

DUAL-POL DATA HAS BEEN AN EXCELLENT TOOL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
IN DETECTING THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. THE LOWERING OF CC AND INCREASE
IN ZDR MOVED THROUGH THE BIRMINGHAM AREA AT THE TIME OF THE
CHANGEOVER AT THE BIRMINGHAM AIRPORT. THIS CHANGEOVER LINE IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS BIBB...SHELBY AND TALLADEGA COUNTIES. EXPECT ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IN THE BIRMINGHAM METRO AND LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF I-20 WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. AS THE
SNOW CONTINUES IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-65
EXPECT THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 INCHES. WE
SHOULD SEE THE SNOW BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 3
AM.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY IFR OVERNIGHT BUT MANY
LOCATIONS ARE BOUNCING AROUND. WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FURTHER TO
THE WEST AND COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY 15-18Z WITH CEILINGS GOING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BIBB...CLAY...RANDOLPH...SHELBY...TALLADEGA.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT...CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...CLEBURNE...
ETOWAH...FAYETTE...JEFFERSON...LAMAR...MARION...PICKENS...ST.
CLAIR...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 260533
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1133 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A HISTORIC WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE COME IN ACROSS MARION COUNTY AS HIGH AS 10
INCHES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS A FOOT OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. THESE AMOUNTS ARE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SINCE 1993. IN ADDITION... HEAVY WET SNOW HAVE
CAUSED SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THUNDERSNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM IN
CHEROKEE COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

DUAL-POL DATA HAS BEEN AN EXCELLENT TOOL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
IN DETECTING THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. THE LOWERING OF CC AND INCREASE
IN ZDR MOVED THROUGH THE BIRMINGHAM AREA AT THE TIME OF THE
CHANGEOVER AT THE BIRMINGHAM AIRPORT. THIS CHANGEOVER LINE IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS BIBB...SHELBY AND TALLADEGA COUNTIES. EXPECT ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IN THE BIRMINGHAM METRO AND LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF I-20 WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. AS THE
SNOW CONTINUES IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-65
EXPECT THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 INCHES. WE
SHOULD SEE THE SNOW BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 3
AM.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY IFR OVERNIGHT BUT MANY
LOCATIONS ARE BOUNCING AROUND. WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FURTHER TO
THE WEST AND COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY 15-18Z WITH CEILINGS GOING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BIBB...CLAY...RANDOLPH...SHELBY...TALLADEGA.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT...CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...CLEBURNE...
ETOWAH...FAYETTE...JEFFERSON...LAMAR...MARION...PICKENS...ST.
CLAIR...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 260533
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1133 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A HISTORIC WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE COME IN ACROSS MARION COUNTY AS HIGH AS 10
INCHES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS A FOOT OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. THESE AMOUNTS ARE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SINCE 1993. IN ADDITION... HEAVY WET SNOW HAVE
CAUSED SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THUNDERSNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM IN
CHEROKEE COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

DUAL-POL DATA HAS BEEN AN EXCELLENT TOOL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
IN DETECTING THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. THE LOWERING OF CC AND INCREASE
IN ZDR MOVED THROUGH THE BIRMINGHAM AREA AT THE TIME OF THE
CHANGEOVER AT THE BIRMINGHAM AIRPORT. THIS CHANGEOVER LINE IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS BIBB...SHELBY AND TALLADEGA COUNTIES. EXPECT ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IN THE BIRMINGHAM METRO AND LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF I-20 WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. AS THE
SNOW CONTINUES IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-65
EXPECT THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 INCHES. WE
SHOULD SEE THE SNOW BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 3
AM.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY IFR OVERNIGHT BUT MANY
LOCATIONS ARE BOUNCING AROUND. WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FURTHER TO
THE WEST AND COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY 15-18Z WITH CEILINGS GOING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BIBB...CLAY...RANDOLPH...SHELBY...TALLADEGA.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT...CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...CLEBURNE...
ETOWAH...FAYETTE...JEFFERSON...LAMAR...MARION...PICKENS...ST.
CLAIR...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 260533
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1133 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A HISTORIC WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE COME IN ACROSS MARION COUNTY AS HIGH AS 10
INCHES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS A FOOT OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. THESE AMOUNTS ARE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SINCE 1993. IN ADDITION... HEAVY WET SNOW HAVE
CAUSED SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THUNDERSNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM IN
CHEROKEE COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

DUAL-POL DATA HAS BEEN AN EXCELLENT TOOL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
IN DETECTING THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. THE LOWERING OF CC AND INCREASE
IN ZDR MOVED THROUGH THE BIRMINGHAM AREA AT THE TIME OF THE
CHANGEOVER AT THE BIRMINGHAM AIRPORT. THIS CHANGEOVER LINE IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS BIBB...SHELBY AND TALLADEGA COUNTIES. EXPECT ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IN THE BIRMINGHAM METRO AND LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF I-20 WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. AS THE
SNOW CONTINUES IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-65
EXPECT THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 INCHES. WE
SHOULD SEE THE SNOW BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 3
AM.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY IFR OVERNIGHT BUT MANY
LOCATIONS ARE BOUNCING AROUND. WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FURTHER TO
THE WEST AND COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY 15-18Z WITH CEILINGS GOING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BIBB...CLAY...RANDOLPH...SHELBY...TALLADEGA.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT...CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...CLEBURNE...
ETOWAH...FAYETTE...JEFFERSON...LAMAR...MARION...PICKENS...ST.
CLAIR...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

$$








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities