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000
FXUS64 KBMX 191923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
223 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EARLIER UPDATE STILL ON TRACK AS ACTIVITY DID DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BIT MORE IN COVERAGE THAN
EXPECTED AS THE WEDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE WEDGE SLIDE WEST BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. WHAT THIS
SHOULD MEAN FOR THE AREA WOULD BE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. BY THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE
BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE DRY SLOT DURING
THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. ON SUNDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A
CONVENTIONAL COLD FRONT SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT REMAINS
POSITIVELY TILTED AND WILL DISSIPATE AS IT WORKS INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH MONDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO IN THE SOUTH UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY BEGIN TO FEEL
MORE LIKE FALL AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S ON TUESDAY MORNING.
A FEW COOLER SPOTS MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR
NORTH.

EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS ON THURSDAY AND WILL BRING BACK MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH BETTER
CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE EURO KEEPS THE
AREA DRY...BUT WITH EASTERLY FLOW THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALWAYS A GOOD BET.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...IN AND
AROUND ANB. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES WEST INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE A BIT
DIFFERENTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL THERE BE LOW CLOUDS
OR FOG? BELIEVE THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST CLOSER TO SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AT MGM/TOI AND PERHAPS ANB.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  83  64  86  63 /  20   0   0  10  30
ANNISTON    65  82  66  85  65 /  20   0   0  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  66  84  67  86  65 /  20   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  68  88  67  90  65 /  20   0   0  10  20
CALERA      66  84  67  87  66 /  30   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      65  83  67  88  67 /  20  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  67  86  69  90  68 /  20  10   0   0  10
TROY        65  85  67  89  66 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 191923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
223 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EARLIER UPDATE STILL ON TRACK AS ACTIVITY DID DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BIT MORE IN COVERAGE THAN
EXPECTED AS THE WEDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE WEDGE SLIDE WEST BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. WHAT THIS
SHOULD MEAN FOR THE AREA WOULD BE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. BY THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE
BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE DRY SLOT DURING
THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. ON SUNDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A
CONVENTIONAL COLD FRONT SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT REMAINS
POSITIVELY TILTED AND WILL DISSIPATE AS IT WORKS INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH MONDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO IN THE SOUTH UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY BEGIN TO FEEL
MORE LIKE FALL AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S ON TUESDAY MORNING.
A FEW COOLER SPOTS MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR
NORTH.

EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS ON THURSDAY AND WILL BRING BACK MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH BETTER
CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE EURO KEEPS THE
AREA DRY...BUT WITH EASTERLY FLOW THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALWAYS A GOOD BET.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...IN AND
AROUND ANB. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES WEST INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE A BIT
DIFFERENTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL THERE BE LOW CLOUDS
OR FOG? BELIEVE THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST CLOSER TO SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AT MGM/TOI AND PERHAPS ANB.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  83  64  86  63 /  20   0   0  10  30
ANNISTON    65  82  66  85  65 /  20   0   0  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  66  84  67  86  65 /  20   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  68  88  67  90  65 /  20   0   0  10  20
CALERA      66  84  67  87  66 /  30   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      65  83  67  88  67 /  20  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  67  86  69  90  68 /  20  10   0   0  10
TROY        65  85  67  89  66 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 191812
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
112 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OUT THERE ALREADY THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTHEAST...FELT COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO UPDATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WHERE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
PRESENT THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARIES WE DO
HAVE THE WEDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL HELP
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RICHEST AIRMASS IS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHERE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE 9 TO 10 PM TIME
FRAME. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHWEST LATE. THOSE ARE THE ONLY TWO AREAS AT THIS TIME THAT MAY
SEE ANY SHOWERS AFTER 7 PM. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK AND WILL ONLY
ADJUST THE MORNING TRENDS.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...IN AND
AROUND ANB. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES WEST INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE A BIT
DIFFERENTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL THERE BE LOW CLOUDS
OR FOG? BELIEVE THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST CLOSER TO SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AT MGM/TOI AND PERHAPS ANB.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  84  64  86  62 /  10   0   0  10  30
ANNISTON    65  83  65  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  66  85  67  87  64 /  10   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  68  88  68  90  66 /  10   0   0  10  20
CALERA      66  85  66  88  65 /  10   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      65  84  65  88  66 /  10  10   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  67  86  67  90  68 /  10  10   0   0  10
TROY        65  86  65  89  67 /  20  10   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 191812
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
112 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OUT THERE ALREADY THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTHEAST...FELT COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO UPDATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WHERE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
PRESENT THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARIES WE DO
HAVE THE WEDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL HELP
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RICHEST AIRMASS IS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHERE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE 9 TO 10 PM TIME
FRAME. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHWEST LATE. THOSE ARE THE ONLY TWO AREAS AT THIS TIME THAT MAY
SEE ANY SHOWERS AFTER 7 PM. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK AND WILL ONLY
ADJUST THE MORNING TRENDS.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...IN AND
AROUND ANB. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES WEST INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE A BIT
DIFFERENTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL THERE BE LOW CLOUDS
OR FOG? BELIEVE THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST CLOSER TO SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AT MGM/TOI AND PERHAPS ANB.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  84  64  86  62 /  10   0   0  10  30
ANNISTON    65  83  65  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  66  85  67  87  64 /  10   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  68  88  68  90  66 /  10   0   0  10  20
CALERA      66  85  66  88  65 /  10   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      65  84  65  88  66 /  10  10   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  67  86  67  90  68 /  10  10   0   0  10
TROY        65  86  65  89  67 /  20  10   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 191502
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1002 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OUT THERE ALREADY THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTHEAST...FELT COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO UPDATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WHERE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
PRESENT THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARIES WE DO
HAVE THE WEDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL HELP
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RICHEST AIRMASS IS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHERE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE 9 TO 10 PM TIME
FRAME. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHWEST LATE. THOSE ARE THE ONLY TWO AREAS AT THIS TIME THAT MAY
SEE ANY SHOWERS AFTER 7 PM. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK AND WILL ONLY
ADJUST THE MORNING TRENDS.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST TODAY AND PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION
LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT. EVEN WITH THESE BOUNDARIES...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EQUAL BUT LOW CHANCES AT ALL SITES.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW COVERAGE WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY
MENTION OF STORMS UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
LOCATIONS. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KTS TODAY.

14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 423 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

NEXT FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA IS FORECAST TO COME THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY OR ON MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS DON`T SHOW A LOT OF QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT I GOTTA THINK THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH.

IT SEEMS THAT WE`VE BEEN ANTICIPATING A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS NOW...BUT AS THEY APPROACH THEY`VE BEEN
STALLING OUT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM
HOWEVER...I AM GAINING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE ONE TO
FINALLY USHER IN SOME MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  64  84  64  86 /  30  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    85  65  83  65  86 /  40  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  87  66  85  67  87 /  30  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  91  68  88  68  90 /  20  10   0   0  10
CALERA      88  66  85  66  88 /  20  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      88  65  84  65  88 /  40  10  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  90  67  86  67  90 /  20  10  10   0   0
TROY        90  65  86  65  89 /  30  20  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 191502
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1002 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OUT THERE ALREADY THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTHEAST...FELT COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO UPDATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WHERE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
PRESENT THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARIES WE DO
HAVE THE WEDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL HELP
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RICHEST AIRMASS IS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHERE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE 9 TO 10 PM TIME
FRAME. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHWEST LATE. THOSE ARE THE ONLY TWO AREAS AT THIS TIME THAT MAY
SEE ANY SHOWERS AFTER 7 PM. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK AND WILL ONLY
ADJUST THE MORNING TRENDS.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST TODAY AND PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION
LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT. EVEN WITH THESE BOUNDARIES...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EQUAL BUT LOW CHANCES AT ALL SITES.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW COVERAGE WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY
MENTION OF STORMS UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
LOCATIONS. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KTS TODAY.

14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 423 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

NEXT FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA IS FORECAST TO COME THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY OR ON MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS DON`T SHOW A LOT OF QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT I GOTTA THINK THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH.

IT SEEMS THAT WE`VE BEEN ANTICIPATING A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS NOW...BUT AS THEY APPROACH THEY`VE BEEN
STALLING OUT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM
HOWEVER...I AM GAINING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE ONE TO
FINALLY USHER IN SOME MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  64  84  64  86 /  30  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    85  65  83  65  86 /  40  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  87  66  85  67  87 /  30  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  91  68  88  68  90 /  20  10   0   0  10
CALERA      88  66  85  66  88 /  20  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      88  65  84  65  88 /  40  10  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  90  67  86  67  90 /  20  10  10   0   0
TROY        90  65  86  65  89 /  30  20  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 191137
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATED...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURPRISING AMOUNT OF RAIN IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA LAST NIGHT.
WELL...MAYBE NOT SO SURPRISING IF WE HAD FOLLOWED THE NAM`S
EARLIER FORECASTS. AND PERHAPS THAT WOULD BE THE BEST STRATEGY ON
THE FORECAST GOING FORWARD.

LOOKS LIKE THE SHORTWAVE (AT LEAST PARTIALLY) RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SHOWERS LAST NIGHT IS NOW PUSHING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THERE`S A FEW LINGER LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND TCL AND BHM...BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE NEW DEVELOPMENT IS ALONG THE COAST AND JUST
OFFSHORE. MODEL CONSENSUS (INCLUDING THE NAM) SUGGESTS THAT ANY
RAIN AT ALL TODAY SHOULD BE OF LESS COVERAGE THAN ON THURSDAY.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (10-20 PERCENT) IN AREAWIDE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

NEXT FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA IS FORECAST TO COME THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY OR ON MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS DON`T SHOW A LOT OF QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT I GOTTA THINK THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH.

IT SEEMS THAT WE`VE BEEN ANTICIPATING A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS NOW...BUT AS THEY APPROACH THEY`VE BEEN
STALLING OUT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM
HOWEVER...I AM GAINING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE ONE TO
FINALLY USHER IN SOME MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST TODAY AND PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION
LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT. EVEN WITH THESE BOUNDARIES...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EQUAL BUT LOW CHANCES AT ALL SITES.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW COVERAGE WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY
MENTION OF STORMS UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
LOCATIONS. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KTS TODAY.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  64  84  64  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    85  65  83  65  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  87  66  85  67  87 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  91  68  88  68  90 /  20  10   0   0  10
CALERA      88  66  85  66  88 /  20  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      88  65  84  65  88 /  20  10  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  90  67  86  67  90 /  20  10  10   0   0
TROY        90  65  86  65  89 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 191137
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATED...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURPRISING AMOUNT OF RAIN IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA LAST NIGHT.
WELL...MAYBE NOT SO SURPRISING IF WE HAD FOLLOWED THE NAM`S
EARLIER FORECASTS. AND PERHAPS THAT WOULD BE THE BEST STRATEGY ON
THE FORECAST GOING FORWARD.

LOOKS LIKE THE SHORTWAVE (AT LEAST PARTIALLY) RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SHOWERS LAST NIGHT IS NOW PUSHING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THERE`S A FEW LINGER LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND TCL AND BHM...BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE NEW DEVELOPMENT IS ALONG THE COAST AND JUST
OFFSHORE. MODEL CONSENSUS (INCLUDING THE NAM) SUGGESTS THAT ANY
RAIN AT ALL TODAY SHOULD BE OF LESS COVERAGE THAN ON THURSDAY.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (10-20 PERCENT) IN AREAWIDE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

NEXT FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA IS FORECAST TO COME THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY OR ON MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS DON`T SHOW A LOT OF QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT I GOTTA THINK THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH.

IT SEEMS THAT WE`VE BEEN ANTICIPATING A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS NOW...BUT AS THEY APPROACH THEY`VE BEEN
STALLING OUT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM
HOWEVER...I AM GAINING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE ONE TO
FINALLY USHER IN SOME MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST TODAY AND PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION
LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT. EVEN WITH THESE BOUNDARIES...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EQUAL BUT LOW CHANCES AT ALL SITES.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW COVERAGE WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY
MENTION OF STORMS UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
LOCATIONS. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KTS TODAY.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  64  84  64  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    85  65  83  65  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  87  66  85  67  87 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  91  68  88  68  90 /  20  10   0   0  10
CALERA      88  66  85  66  88 /  20  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      88  65  84  65  88 /  20  10  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  90  67  86  67  90 /  20  10  10   0   0
TROY        90  65  86  65  89 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 190923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
423 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURPRISING AMOUNT OF RAIN IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA LAST NIGHT.
WELL...MAYBE NOT SO SURPRISING IF WE HAD FOLLOWED THE NAM`S
EARLIER FORECASTS. AND PERHAPS THAT WOULD BE THE BEST STRATEGY ON
THE FORECAST GOING FORWARD.

LOOKS LIKE THE SHORTWAVE (AT LEAST PARTIALLY) RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SHOWERS LAST NIGHT IS NOW PUSHING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THERE`S A FEW LINGER LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND TCL AND BHM...BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE NEW DEVELOPMENT IS ALONG THE COAST AND JUST
OFFSHORE. MODEL CONSENSUS (INCLUDING THE NAM) SUGGESTS THAT ANY
RAIN AT ALL TODAY SHOULD BE OF LESS COVERAGE THAN ON THURSDAY.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (10-20 PERCENT) IN AREAWIDE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

NEXT FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA IS FORECAST TO COME THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY OR ON MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS DON`T SHOW A LOT OF QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT I GOTTA THINK THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH.

IT SEEMS THAT WE`VE BEEN ANTICIPATING A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS NOW...BUT AS THEY APPROACH THEY`VE BEEN
STALLING OUT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM
HOWEVER...I AM GAINING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE ONE TO
FINALLY USHER IN SOME MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END ACROSS WEST ALABAMA NEAR TCL.
WILL LEAVE VCSH IN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL IT COMPLETELY
DISSIPATES. SOME PATCHY BR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TCL LATER TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...A FEW OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST AND PROVIDE
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ANB AND INCLUDED
VC WORDING BEGINNING 18Z. SOME CONVECTION COULD PUSH AS FAR WEST
AS THE I-65 CORRIDOR BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY.

88


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  64  84  64  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    85  65  83  65  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  87  66  85  67  87 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  91  68  88  68  90 /  20  10   0   0  10
CALERA      88  66  85  66  88 /  20  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      88  65  84  65  88 /  20  10  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  90  67  86  67  90 /  20  10  10   0   0
TROY        90  65  86  65  89 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 190923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
423 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURPRISING AMOUNT OF RAIN IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA LAST NIGHT.
WELL...MAYBE NOT SO SURPRISING IF WE HAD FOLLOWED THE NAM`S
EARLIER FORECASTS. AND PERHAPS THAT WOULD BE THE BEST STRATEGY ON
THE FORECAST GOING FORWARD.

LOOKS LIKE THE SHORTWAVE (AT LEAST PARTIALLY) RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SHOWERS LAST NIGHT IS NOW PUSHING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THERE`S A FEW LINGER LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND TCL AND BHM...BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE NEW DEVELOPMENT IS ALONG THE COAST AND JUST
OFFSHORE. MODEL CONSENSUS (INCLUDING THE NAM) SUGGESTS THAT ANY
RAIN AT ALL TODAY SHOULD BE OF LESS COVERAGE THAN ON THURSDAY.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (10-20 PERCENT) IN AREAWIDE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

NEXT FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA IS FORECAST TO COME THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY OR ON MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS DON`T SHOW A LOT OF QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT I GOTTA THINK THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH.

IT SEEMS THAT WE`VE BEEN ANTICIPATING A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS NOW...BUT AS THEY APPROACH THEY`VE BEEN
STALLING OUT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM
HOWEVER...I AM GAINING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE ONE TO
FINALLY USHER IN SOME MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END ACROSS WEST ALABAMA NEAR TCL.
WILL LEAVE VCSH IN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL IT COMPLETELY
DISSIPATES. SOME PATCHY BR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TCL LATER TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...A FEW OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST AND PROVIDE
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ANB AND INCLUDED
VC WORDING BEGINNING 18Z. SOME CONVECTION COULD PUSH AS FAR WEST
AS THE I-65 CORRIDOR BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY.

88


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  64  84  64  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    85  65  83  65  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  87  66  85  67  87 /  20  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  91  68  88  68  90 /  20  10   0   0  10
CALERA      88  66  85  66  88 /  20  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      88  65  84  65  88 /  20  10  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  90  67  86  67  90 /  20  10  10   0   0
TROY        90  65  86  65  89 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 190448
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1148 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS WEST ALABAMA ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE
OF A RIDGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR.  THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHED AS IT
ENCOUNTERED DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ALONG AND EAST OF I-65.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS WEST ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
CLOSER TO THE I-65 CORRIDOR. ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THOSE AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END ACROSS WEST ALABAMA NEAR TCL.
WILL LEAVE VCSH IN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL IT COMPLETELY
DISSIPATES. SOME PATCHY BR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TCL LATER TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...A FEW OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST AND PROVIDE
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ANB AND INCLUDED
VC WORDING BEGINNING 18Z. SOME CONVECTION COULD PUSH AS FAR WEST
AS THE I-65 CORRIDOR BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 190448
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1148 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS WEST ALABAMA ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE
OF A RIDGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR.  THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHED AS IT
ENCOUNTERED DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ALONG AND EAST OF I-65.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS WEST ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
CLOSER TO THE I-65 CORRIDOR. ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THOSE AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END ACROSS WEST ALABAMA NEAR TCL.
WILL LEAVE VCSH IN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL IT COMPLETELY
DISSIPATES. SOME PATCHY BR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TCL LATER TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...A FEW OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST AND PROVIDE
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ANB AND INCLUDED
VC WORDING BEGINNING 18Z. SOME CONVECTION COULD PUSH AS FAR WEST
AS THE I-65 CORRIDOR BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 182336
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S AND 60S HAVE BEEN PREVALENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY PLEASANT. WE`VE BEEN KEEPING AN
EYE ON CONDITIONS OFF TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST AS SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STABLE
ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD STORMS...BUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES CAN`T BE RULED OUT. WE`VE THEREFORE
ADDED IN AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A STORM BASICALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-59 CORRIDOR. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA FRIDAY EVENING...A BROAD AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ALSO...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. IF THIS
VERIFIES...AN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS, GEORGIA, AND EASTERN ALABAMA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT AS IT ENTERS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE CAROLINAS SHOULD QUICKLY EJECT NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST IN RESPONSE TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL DIG ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE WEATHER PATTERN
AFTERWARD SURE LOOKS LIKE AUTUMN AROUND HERE...WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AS IS COMMON WITH EARLY AUTUMN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AROUND
HERE...WE DON`T GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THE VERY POSITIVELY TILTED FRONT. THEREFORE...WE MAY ONLY SEE A
FEW CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH IT. FOR NOW...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM REMAINS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
FRONT. WHAT WE WILL EXPECT...IS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
LOWS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWER 80S BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRY GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ONE LONE STORM THIS EVENING THAT WILL APPROACH TCL WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CIRRUS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED. WINDS VERY LIGHT.

NOTE: WE WILL BEGIN BACK WITH OUR SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF KASN TAF
(TALLADEGA AL) ON OCTOBER 5TH AT THE 00Z ISSUANCE AND IT WILL RUN
THROUGH OCTOBER 23RD 00Z.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 181958
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
258 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S AND 60S HAVE BEEN PREVALENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY PLEASANT. WE`VE BEEN KEEPING AN
EYE ON CONDITIONS OFF TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST AS SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STABLE
ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD STORMS...BUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES CAN`T BE RULED OUT. WE`VE THEREFORE
ADDED IN AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A STORM BASICALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-59 CORRIDOR. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA FRIDAY EVENING...A BROAD AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ALSO...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. IF THIS
VERIFIES...AN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS, GEORGIA, AND EASTERN ALABAMA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT AS IT ENTERS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE CAROLINAS SHOULD QUICKLY EJECT NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST IN RESPONSE TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL DIG ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE WEATHER PATTERN
AFTERWARD SURE LOOKS LIKE AUTUMN AROUND HERE...WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AS IS COMMON WITH EARLY AUTUMN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AROUND
HERE...WE DON`T GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THE VERY POSITIVELY TILTED FRONT. THEREFORE...WE MAY ONLY SEE A
FEW CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH IT. FOR NOW...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM REMAINS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
FRONT. WHAT WE WILL EXPECT...IS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
LOWS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWER 80S BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRY GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.

87/GRANTHAM

NOTE: WE WILL BEGIN BACK WITH OUR SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF KASN TAF
(TALLADEGA AL) ON OCTOBER 5TH AT THE 00Z ISSUANCE AND IT WILL RUN
THROUGH OCTOBER 23RD 00Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  85  64  83  61 /  20  20  10  10   0
ANNISTON    64  85  65  83  63 /  10  20  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  66  87  67  85  66 /  20  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  66  91  68  89  66 /  20  10   0   0   0
CALERA      66  87  67  85  64 /  20  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      67  88  66  83  63 /  10  20  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  67  91  67  87  65 /  10  20  10  10   0
TROY        65  90  65  86  64 /   0  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 181958
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
258 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S AND 60S HAVE BEEN PREVALENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY PLEASANT. WE`VE BEEN KEEPING AN
EYE ON CONDITIONS OFF TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST AS SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STABLE
ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD STORMS...BUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES CAN`T BE RULED OUT. WE`VE THEREFORE
ADDED IN AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A STORM BASICALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-59 CORRIDOR. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA FRIDAY EVENING...A BROAD AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ALSO...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. IF THIS
VERIFIES...AN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS, GEORGIA, AND EASTERN ALABAMA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT AS IT ENTERS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE CAROLINAS SHOULD QUICKLY EJECT NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST IN RESPONSE TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL DIG ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE WEATHER PATTERN
AFTERWARD SURE LOOKS LIKE AUTUMN AROUND HERE...WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AS IS COMMON WITH EARLY AUTUMN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AROUND
HERE...WE DON`T GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THE VERY POSITIVELY TILTED FRONT. THEREFORE...WE MAY ONLY SEE A
FEW CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH IT. FOR NOW...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM REMAINS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
FRONT. WHAT WE WILL EXPECT...IS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
LOWS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWER 80S BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRY GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.

87/GRANTHAM

NOTE: WE WILL BEGIN BACK WITH OUR SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF KASN TAF
(TALLADEGA AL) ON OCTOBER 5TH AT THE 00Z ISSUANCE AND IT WILL RUN
THROUGH OCTOBER 23RD 00Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  85  64  83  61 /  20  20  10  10   0
ANNISTON    64  85  65  83  63 /  10  20  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  66  87  67  85  66 /  20  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  66  91  68  89  66 /  20  10   0   0   0
CALERA      66  87  67  85  64 /  20  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      67  88  66  83  63 /  10  20  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  67  91  67  87  65 /  10  20  10  10   0
TROY        65  90  65  86  64 /   0  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 181729
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING UPDATE.

NO CHANGES MADE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. WITH LOW PWAT VALUES
ACROSS THE CWA...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST BUT MONITOR SHOWERS
AS THEY ENCROACH ON OUR NORTHWEST BORDER.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 418 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

A LARGELY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL
LIKELY KEEP DEEP GULF MOISTURE CUT OFF AND RAIN CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM. THERE ARE A FEW CURIOUSLY PLACED SHOWERS JUST TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. WE`LL SEE HOW THEY PROGRESS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AMEND TO ADD SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES IF LATER NEEDED.
BUT RIGHT NOW I THINK THINGS SHOULD STAY OUT OF OUR AREA.

OTHERWISE...ITS REALLY HARD TO PINPOINT ANYTHING THAT WILL LEAD TO
DEFINITIVE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE COMING DAYS. THERE`S VARIOUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT PASS THROUGH THAT COULD CAUSE A BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS HERE AND THERE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO
HAVE A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED SHOWER OR
STORM ACTIVITY. BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS AFTER ITS PASSAGE.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.

87/GRANTHAM

NOTE: WE WILL BEGIN BACK WITH OUR SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF KASN TAF
(TALLADEGA AL) ON OCTOBER 5TH AT THE 00Z ISSUANCE AND IT WILL RUN
THROUGH OCTOBER 23RD 00Z.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 181729
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING UPDATE.

NO CHANGES MADE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. WITH LOW PWAT VALUES
ACROSS THE CWA...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST BUT MONITOR SHOWERS
AS THEY ENCROACH ON OUR NORTHWEST BORDER.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 418 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

A LARGELY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL
LIKELY KEEP DEEP GULF MOISTURE CUT OFF AND RAIN CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM. THERE ARE A FEW CURIOUSLY PLACED SHOWERS JUST TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. WE`LL SEE HOW THEY PROGRESS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AMEND TO ADD SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES IF LATER NEEDED.
BUT RIGHT NOW I THINK THINGS SHOULD STAY OUT OF OUR AREA.

OTHERWISE...ITS REALLY HARD TO PINPOINT ANYTHING THAT WILL LEAD TO
DEFINITIVE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE COMING DAYS. THERE`S VARIOUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT PASS THROUGH THAT COULD CAUSE A BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS HERE AND THERE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO
HAVE A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED SHOWER OR
STORM ACTIVITY. BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS AFTER ITS PASSAGE.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.

87/GRANTHAM

NOTE: WE WILL BEGIN BACK WITH OUR SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF KASN TAF
(TALLADEGA AL) ON OCTOBER 5TH AT THE 00Z ISSUANCE AND IT WILL RUN
THROUGH OCTOBER 23RD 00Z.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 181527
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1027 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

NO CHANGES MADE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. WITH LOW PWAT VALUES
ACROSS THE CWA...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST BUT MONITOR SHOWERS
AS THEY ENCROACH ON OUR NORTHWEST BORDER.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 418 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

A LARGELY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL
LIKELY KEEP DEEP GULF MOISTURE CUT OFF AND RAIN CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM. THERE ARE A FEW CURIOUSLY PLACED SHOWERS JUST TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. WE`LL SEE HOW THEY PROGRESS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AMEND TO ADD SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES IF LATER NEEDED.
BUT RIGHT NOW I THINK THINGS SHOULD STAY OUT OF OUR AREA.

OTHERWISE...ITS REALLY HARD TO PINPOINT ANYTHING THAT WILL LEAD TO
DEFINITIVE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE COMING DAYS. THERE`S VARIOUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT PASS THROUGH THAT COULD CAUSE A BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS HERE AND THERE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO
HAVE A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED SHOWER OR
STORM ACTIVITY. BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS AFTER ITS PASSAGE.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FOR THE MOST PART UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE WITH DRY AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OR NONE AT ALL.
SOME UPPER MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TODAY DUE TO SOME LIGHT RIPPLES
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AS SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE NO MENTION OF STORMS AT THIS TIME FOR THE
TERMINALS AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW WITH MAINLY CIRRUS/MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. THERE HAS BEEN SOME UP AND DOWN OVERNIGHT
SHALLOW FOG AT TOI. THIS SHOULD END IN A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
HEATING...BUT LEFT IN A TEMPO TILL THEN...AFTER WHICH VFR.

08/MK

NOTE: WE WILL BEGIN BACK WITH OUR SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF KASN TAF
(TALLADEGA AL) ON OCTOBER 5TH AT THE 00Z ISSUANCE AND IT WILL RUN
THROUGH OCTOBER 23RD 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  61  85  64  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    85  63  85  65  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  86  64  87  66  85 /  10  10  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  90  66  90  67  89 /  10  10  10   0   0
CALERA      87  65  87  66  85 /  10  10  10   0   0
AUBURN      89  66  87  66  84 /  10  10  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  91  67  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  10  10
TROY        91  66  90  65  85 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 181527
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1027 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

NO CHANGES MADE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. WITH LOW PWAT VALUES
ACROSS THE CWA...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST BUT MONITOR SHOWERS
AS THEY ENCROACH ON OUR NORTHWEST BORDER.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 418 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

A LARGELY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL
LIKELY KEEP DEEP GULF MOISTURE CUT OFF AND RAIN CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM. THERE ARE A FEW CURIOUSLY PLACED SHOWERS JUST TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. WE`LL SEE HOW THEY PROGRESS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AMEND TO ADD SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES IF LATER NEEDED.
BUT RIGHT NOW I THINK THINGS SHOULD STAY OUT OF OUR AREA.

OTHERWISE...ITS REALLY HARD TO PINPOINT ANYTHING THAT WILL LEAD TO
DEFINITIVE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE COMING DAYS. THERE`S VARIOUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT PASS THROUGH THAT COULD CAUSE A BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS HERE AND THERE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO
HAVE A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED SHOWER OR
STORM ACTIVITY. BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS AFTER ITS PASSAGE.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FOR THE MOST PART UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE WITH DRY AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OR NONE AT ALL.
SOME UPPER MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TODAY DUE TO SOME LIGHT RIPPLES
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AS SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE NO MENTION OF STORMS AT THIS TIME FOR THE
TERMINALS AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW WITH MAINLY CIRRUS/MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. THERE HAS BEEN SOME UP AND DOWN OVERNIGHT
SHALLOW FOG AT TOI. THIS SHOULD END IN A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
HEATING...BUT LEFT IN A TEMPO TILL THEN...AFTER WHICH VFR.

08/MK

NOTE: WE WILL BEGIN BACK WITH OUR SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF KASN TAF
(TALLADEGA AL) ON OCTOBER 5TH AT THE 00Z ISSUANCE AND IT WILL RUN
THROUGH OCTOBER 23RD 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  61  85  64  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    85  63  85  65  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  86  64  87  66  85 /  10  10  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  90  66  90  67  89 /  10  10  10   0   0
CALERA      87  65  87  66  85 /  10  10  10   0   0
AUBURN      89  66  87  66  84 /  10  10  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  91  67  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  10  10
TROY        91  66  90  65  85 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 181200 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
700 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGELY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL
LIKELY KEEP DEEP GULF MOISTURE CUT OFF AND RAIN CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM. THERE ARE A FEW CURIOUSLY PLACED SHOWERS JUST TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. WE`LL SEE HOW THEY PROGRESS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AMEND TO ADD SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES IF LATER NEEDED.
BUT RIGHT NOW I THINK THINGS SHOULD STAY OUT OF OUR AREA.

OTHERWISE...ITS REALLY HARD TO PINPOINT ANYTHING THAT WILL LEAD TO
DEFINITIVE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE COMING DAYS. THERE`S VARIOUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT PASS THROUGH THAT COULD CAUSE A BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS HERE AND THERE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO
HAVE A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED SHOWER OR
STORM ACTIVITY. BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS AFTER ITS PASSAGE.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FOR THE MOST PART UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE WITH DRY AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OR NONE AT ALL.
SOME UPPER MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TODAY DUE TO SOME LIGHT RIPPLES
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AS SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE NO MENTION OF STORMS AT THIS TIME FOR THE
TERMINALS AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW WITH MAINLY CIRRUS/MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. THERE HAS BEEN SOME UP AND DOWN OVERNIGHT
SHALLOW FOG AT TOI. THIS SHOULD END IN A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
HEATING...BUT LEFT IN A TEMPO TILL THEN...AFTER WHICH VFR.

08/MK

NOTE: WE WILL BEGIN BACK WITH OUR SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF KASN TAF
(TALLADEGA AL) ON OCTOBER 5TH AT THE 00Z ISSUANCE AND IT WILL RUN
THROUGH OCTOBER 23RD 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  61  85  64  84 /   0  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    85  63  85  65  83 /   0  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  86  64  87  66  85 /   0  10  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  90  66  90  67  89 /  10  10  10   0   0
CALERA      87  65  87  66  85 /   0  10  10   0   0
AUBURN      89  66  87  66  84 /   0  10  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  91  67  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  10  10
TROY        91  66  90  65  85 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

61/08









000
FXUS64 KBMX 180918
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
418 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGELY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL
LIKELY KEEP DEEP GULF MOISTURE CUT OFF AND RAIN CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM. THERE ARE A FEW CURIOUSLY PLACED SHOWERS JUST TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. WE`LL SEE HOW THEY PROGRESS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AMEND TO ADD SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES IF LATER NEEDED.
BUT RIGHT NOW I THINK THINGS SHOULD STAY OUT OF OUR AREA.

OTHERWISE...ITS REALLY HARD TO PINPOINT ANYTHING THAT WILL LEAD TO
DEFINITIVE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE COMING DAYS. THERE`S VARIOUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT PASS THROUGH THAT COULD CAUSE A BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS HERE AND THERE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO
HAVE A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED SHOWER OR
STORM ACTIVITY. BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS AFTER ITS PASSAGE.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND INCLUDED SOME MVFR VSBYS AT KTOI FOR A FEW
HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A FEW SHWRS
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BETWEEN 1200 UTC AND 1700 UTC...BUT CHANCES
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  61  85  64  84 /   0  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    85  63  85  65  83 /   0  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  86  64  87  66  85 /   0  10  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  90  66  90  67  89 /  10  10  10   0   0
CALERA      87  65  87  66  85 /   0  10  10   0   0
AUBURN      89  66  87  66  84 /   0  10  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  91  67  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  10  10
TROY        91  66  90  65  85 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 180918
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
418 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGELY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL
LIKELY KEEP DEEP GULF MOISTURE CUT OFF AND RAIN CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM. THERE ARE A FEW CURIOUSLY PLACED SHOWERS JUST TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. WE`LL SEE HOW THEY PROGRESS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AMEND TO ADD SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES IF LATER NEEDED.
BUT RIGHT NOW I THINK THINGS SHOULD STAY OUT OF OUR AREA.

OTHERWISE...ITS REALLY HARD TO PINPOINT ANYTHING THAT WILL LEAD TO
DEFINITIVE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE COMING DAYS. THERE`S VARIOUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT PASS THROUGH THAT COULD CAUSE A BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS HERE AND THERE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO
HAVE A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED SHOWER OR
STORM ACTIVITY. BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS AFTER ITS PASSAGE.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND INCLUDED SOME MVFR VSBYS AT KTOI FOR A FEW
HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A FEW SHWRS
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BETWEEN 1200 UTC AND 1700 UTC...BUT CHANCES
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  61  85  64  84 /   0  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    85  63  85  65  83 /   0  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  86  64  87  66  85 /   0  10  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  90  66  90  67  89 /  10  10  10   0   0
CALERA      87  65  87  66  85 /   0  10  10   0   0
AUBURN      89  66  87  66  84 /   0  10  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  91  67  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  10  10
TROY        91  66  90  65  85 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 180456
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THE
REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS A CLEAR DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THAT STRETCHES
FROM HALEYVILLE TO BIRMINGHAM TO ALEX CITY. DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE MUCH DRIER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. FOR INSTANCE...THE CURRENT DEWPOINT AT THE BIRMINGHAM
AIRPORT IS 58 WHILE JUST 20-30 MILES SOUTH AT THE SHELBY COUNTY
AIRPORT THE DEWPOINT IS 66. THE TEMPERATURE AT THE BIRMINGHAM
AIRPORT SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP RAPIDLY AS THE WINDS DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENT IR
SATELLITE INDICATES HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI.
FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE NIGHT AS THESE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A TOUCH IN THE
NORTHEAST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND INCLUDED SOME MVFR VSBYS AT KTOI FOR A FEW
HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A FEW SHWRS
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BETWEEN 1200 UTC AND 1700 UTC...BUT CHANCES
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     58  84  61  85  63 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    59  86  62  85  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  64  86  64  87  67 /   0   0  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  89  64  90  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      65  86  64  87  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      64  87  66  86  65 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  66  89  67  89  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
TROY        64  89  65  89  65 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 180456
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THE
REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS A CLEAR DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THAT STRETCHES
FROM HALEYVILLE TO BIRMINGHAM TO ALEX CITY. DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE MUCH DRIER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. FOR INSTANCE...THE CURRENT DEWPOINT AT THE BIRMINGHAM
AIRPORT IS 58 WHILE JUST 20-30 MILES SOUTH AT THE SHELBY COUNTY
AIRPORT THE DEWPOINT IS 66. THE TEMPERATURE AT THE BIRMINGHAM
AIRPORT SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP RAPIDLY AS THE WINDS DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENT IR
SATELLITE INDICATES HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI.
FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE NIGHT AS THESE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A TOUCH IN THE
NORTHEAST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND INCLUDED SOME MVFR VSBYS AT KTOI FOR A FEW
HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A FEW SHWRS
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BETWEEN 1200 UTC AND 1700 UTC...BUT CHANCES
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     58  84  61  85  63 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    59  86  62  85  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  64  86  64  87  67 /   0   0  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  89  64  90  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      65  86  64  87  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      64  87  66  86  65 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  66  89  67  89  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
TROY        64  89  65  89  65 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 180236
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
936 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THE
REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS A CLEAR DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THAT STRETCHES
FROM HALEYVILLE TO BIRMINGHAM TO ALEX CITY. DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE MUCH DRIER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. FOR INSTANCE...THE CURRENT DEWPOINT AT THE BIRMINGHAM
AIRPORT IS 58 WHILE JUST 20-30 MILES SOUTH AT THE SHELBY COUNTY
AIRPORT THE DEWPOINT IS 66. THE TEMPERATURE AT THE BIRMINGHAM
AIRPORT SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP RAPIDLY AS THE WINDS DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENT IR
SATELLITE INDICATES HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI.
FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE NIGHT AS THESE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A TOUCH IN THE
NORTHEAST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH OF
ALABAMA WILL PRODUCE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. SOME LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AT KTOI BETWEEN 1000 AND 1300 UTC.

58/ROSE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 304 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

GOT A COUPLE OF LONE SHOWERS POPPING UP IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE RAINFREE CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

SOME DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES THAN IN RECENT DAYS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
BRINGING IN SOME WEAK LIFT TO THE DEEP SOUTH AND MIGHT BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED SHOWER THURSDAY BUT
MOISTURE REMAINS TOO LIMITED TOO INCLUDE POPS AT THIS TIME.

SOME MOISTURE TRIES TO PUSH INTO EASTERN ALABAMA ON FRIDAY WITH A
BACKDOOR FRONT. AGAIN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AND ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO BUT CHANCES STILL TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TOO
LITTLE LIFT AND TOO LITTLE MOISTURE TO INCLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING.

TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S DEPENDING ON MICRO-CLIMATE
EFFECTS.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 180236
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
936 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THE
REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS A CLEAR DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THAT STRETCHES
FROM HALEYVILLE TO BIRMINGHAM TO ALEX CITY. DEWPOINTS ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE MUCH DRIER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. FOR INSTANCE...THE CURRENT DEWPOINT AT THE BIRMINGHAM
AIRPORT IS 58 WHILE JUST 20-30 MILES SOUTH AT THE SHELBY COUNTY
AIRPORT THE DEWPOINT IS 66. THE TEMPERATURE AT THE BIRMINGHAM
AIRPORT SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP RAPIDLY AS THE WINDS DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENT IR
SATELLITE INDICATES HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI.
FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE NIGHT AS THESE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A TOUCH IN THE
NORTHEAST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH OF
ALABAMA WILL PRODUCE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. SOME LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AT KTOI BETWEEN 1000 AND 1300 UTC.

58/ROSE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 304 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

GOT A COUPLE OF LONE SHOWERS POPPING UP IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE RAINFREE CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

SOME DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES THAN IN RECENT DAYS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
BRINGING IN SOME WEAK LIFT TO THE DEEP SOUTH AND MIGHT BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED SHOWER THURSDAY BUT
MOISTURE REMAINS TOO LIMITED TOO INCLUDE POPS AT THIS TIME.

SOME MOISTURE TRIES TO PUSH INTO EASTERN ALABAMA ON FRIDAY WITH A
BACKDOOR FRONT. AGAIN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AND ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO BUT CHANCES STILL TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TOO
LITTLE LIFT AND TOO LITTLE MOISTURE TO INCLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING.

TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S DEPENDING ON MICRO-CLIMATE
EFFECTS.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 172318
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
618 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

GOT A COUPLE OF LONE SHOWERS POPPING UP IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE RAINFREE CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

SOME DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES THAN IN RECENT DAYS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
BRINGING IN SOME WEAK LIFT TO THE DEEP SOUTH AND MIGHT BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED SHOWER THURSDAY BUT
MOISTURE REMAINS TOO LIMITED TOO INCLUDE POPS AT THIS TIME.

SOME MOISTURE TRIES TO PUSH INTO EASTERN ALABAMA ON FRIDAY WITH A
BACKDOOR FRONT. AGAIN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AND ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO BUT CHANCES STILL TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TOO
LITTLE LIFT AND TOO LITTLE MOISTURE TO INCLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING.

TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S DEPENDING ON MICRO-CLIMATE
EFFECTS.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH OF
ALABAMA WILL PRODUCE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. SOME LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AT KTOI BETWEEN 1000 AND 1300 UTC.

58/ROSE

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  84  61  85  63 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    60  86  62  85  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  64  86  64  87  67 /   0   0  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  89  64  90  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      65  86  64  87  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      64  87  66  86  65 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  66  89  67  89  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
TROY        64  89  65  89  65 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 172318
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
618 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

GOT A COUPLE OF LONE SHOWERS POPPING UP IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE RAINFREE CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

SOME DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES THAN IN RECENT DAYS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
BRINGING IN SOME WEAK LIFT TO THE DEEP SOUTH AND MIGHT BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED SHOWER THURSDAY BUT
MOISTURE REMAINS TOO LIMITED TOO INCLUDE POPS AT THIS TIME.

SOME MOISTURE TRIES TO PUSH INTO EASTERN ALABAMA ON FRIDAY WITH A
BACKDOOR FRONT. AGAIN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AND ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO BUT CHANCES STILL TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TOO
LITTLE LIFT AND TOO LITTLE MOISTURE TO INCLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING.

TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S DEPENDING ON MICRO-CLIMATE
EFFECTS.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH OF
ALABAMA WILL PRODUCE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. SOME LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AT KTOI BETWEEN 1000 AND 1300 UTC.

58/ROSE

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  84  61  85  63 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    60  86  62  85  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  64  86  64  87  67 /   0   0  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  89  64  90  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      65  86  64  87  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      64  87  66  86  65 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  66  89  67  89  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
TROY        64  89  65  89  65 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 172004
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
304 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

GOT A COUPLE OF LONE SHOWERS POPPING UP IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE RAINFREE CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

SOME DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES THAN IN RECENT DAYS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
BRINGING IN SOME WEAK LIFT TO THE DEEP SOUTH AND MIGHT BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED SHOWER THURSDAY BUT
MOISTURE REMAINS TOO LIMITED TOO INCLUDE POPS AT THIS TIME.

SOME MOISTURE TRIES TO PUSH INTO EASTERN ALABAMA ON FRIDAY WITH A
BACKDOOR FRONT. AGAIN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AND ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO BUT CHANCES STILL TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TOO
LITTLE LIFT AND TOO LITTLE MOISTURE TO INCLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING.

TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S DEPENDING ON MICRO-CLIMATE
EFFECTS.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR VIS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  84  61  85  63 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    60  86  62  85  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  64  86  64  87  67 /   0   0  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  89  64  90  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      65  86  64  87  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      64  87  66  86  65 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  66  89  67  89  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
TROY        64  89  65  89  65 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 172004
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
304 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

GOT A COUPLE OF LONE SHOWERS POPPING UP IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE RAINFREE CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

SOME DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES THAN IN RECENT DAYS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
BRINGING IN SOME WEAK LIFT TO THE DEEP SOUTH AND MIGHT BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED SHOWER THURSDAY BUT
MOISTURE REMAINS TOO LIMITED TOO INCLUDE POPS AT THIS TIME.

SOME MOISTURE TRIES TO PUSH INTO EASTERN ALABAMA ON FRIDAY WITH A
BACKDOOR FRONT. AGAIN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AND ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO BUT CHANCES STILL TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TOO
LITTLE LIFT AND TOO LITTLE MOISTURE TO INCLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING.

TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S DEPENDING ON MICRO-CLIMATE
EFFECTS.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR VIS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  84  61  85  63 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    60  86  62  85  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  64  86  64  87  67 /   0   0  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  89  64  90  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      65  86  64  87  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      64  87  66  86  65 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  66  89  67  89  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
TROY        64  89  65  89  65 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 171724
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1224 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR MIDDAY WEATHER AND 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.UPDATE...
MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE
OR SO FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE NECESSARY. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID 80S
NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH WITH LOWER HUMIDITY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR VIS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  84  60  85  62 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    60  84  62  84  63 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  63  85  63  87  66 /   0   0  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  88  64  90  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      63  86  64  88  65 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      63  88  65  87  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  65  89  66  90  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
TROY        64  90  66  89  65 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 171724
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1224 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR MIDDAY WEATHER AND 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.UPDATE...
MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE
OR SO FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE NECESSARY. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID 80S
NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH WITH LOWER HUMIDITY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR VIS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  84  60  85  62 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    60  84  62  84  63 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  63  85  63  87  66 /   0   0  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  88  64  90  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      63  86  64  88  65 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      63  88  65  87  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  65  89  66  90  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
TROY        64  90  66  89  65 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 171156 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
656 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY FROM
THE NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER. SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT SHOWS SOME PATCHES
OF LOW CLOUDS...BUT IT SEEMS NOTHING NEAR AS WIDESPREAD AS
PREVIOUS MORNINGS. THOSE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT AND GIVE WAY TO
LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY.

A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH (AT LEAST) THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK SHOULD KEEP THE GULF SHUT OFF. WE WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH WHAT HAPPENS TO THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...AS THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT STORM COULD EVENTUALLY GET CARRIED WESTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. OTHERWISE...I`VE INTRODUCED ONLY VERY
SMALL POPS INTO THE FORECAST AT THE TAIL END...AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THREE DIFFERENT BANDS OF CLOUDS AFFECTING CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. THE FIRST THAT WILL MOVE IN LATER TO SKIRT THE BHM/ANB
TAFS SOME STRATO CU ~35-45KFT. THEN MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OTHER 2
LOW STRATUS AREAS...1 MOVING SSW ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR ANYWHERE
FROM 400 FT TO 1KFT. A THIRD AREA OF LOW STRATUS IS DEVELOPED AND
IS DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY OVER THE I-85 CORRIDOR AFFECT MGM/TOI
WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VISBYS...WITH SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE THIS
MORNING. THE I-20 AREA IS MOVING QUICKLY AND SHOULD NOT LAST MORE
THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES AND WILL GET THE HELP OF
SOME MIXING TO SHRINK THE AREAS AS WELL. ACROSS THE SOUTH MOVEMENT
IS SLOW. MGM IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE BUT MAY TEATER FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS BEFORE BECOMING TOTAL VFR. TOI MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER
BEING IN THE THICK OF IT. SHOULD FEEL THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE
EFFECTS AFTER THAT AND ALL SHOULD BE VFR BY MIDDAY THRU TONIGHT.

08/MK

NOTE: WE WILL BEGIN BACK WITH OUR SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF KASN TAF
(TALLADEGA AL) ON OCTOBER 5TH AT THE 00Z ISSUANCE AND IT WILL RUN
THROUGH OCTOBER 23RD 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  59  84  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    85  60  84  62  84 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  86  63  85  63  87 /   0   0   0  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  90  64  88  64  90 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      88  63  86  64  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      89  63  88  65  87 /  10   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  91  65  89  66  90 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        92  64  90  66  89 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

61/08







000
FXUS64 KBMX 171156 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
656 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY FROM
THE NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER. SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT SHOWS SOME PATCHES
OF LOW CLOUDS...BUT IT SEEMS NOTHING NEAR AS WIDESPREAD AS
PREVIOUS MORNINGS. THOSE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT AND GIVE WAY TO
LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY.

A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH (AT LEAST) THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK SHOULD KEEP THE GULF SHUT OFF. WE WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH WHAT HAPPENS TO THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...AS THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT STORM COULD EVENTUALLY GET CARRIED WESTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. OTHERWISE...I`VE INTRODUCED ONLY VERY
SMALL POPS INTO THE FORECAST AT THE TAIL END...AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THREE DIFFERENT BANDS OF CLOUDS AFFECTING CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. THE FIRST THAT WILL MOVE IN LATER TO SKIRT THE BHM/ANB
TAFS SOME STRATO CU ~35-45KFT. THEN MORE IMPORTANTLY THE OTHER 2
LOW STRATUS AREAS...1 MOVING SSW ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR ANYWHERE
FROM 400 FT TO 1KFT. A THIRD AREA OF LOW STRATUS IS DEVELOPED AND
IS DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY OVER THE I-85 CORRIDOR AFFECT MGM/TOI
WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VISBYS...WITH SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE THIS
MORNING. THE I-20 AREA IS MOVING QUICKLY AND SHOULD NOT LAST MORE
THAN A COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES AND WILL GET THE HELP OF
SOME MIXING TO SHRINK THE AREAS AS WELL. ACROSS THE SOUTH MOVEMENT
IS SLOW. MGM IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE BUT MAY TEATER FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS BEFORE BECOMING TOTAL VFR. TOI MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER
BEING IN THE THICK OF IT. SHOULD FEEL THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE
EFFECTS AFTER THAT AND ALL SHOULD BE VFR BY MIDDAY THRU TONIGHT.

08/MK

NOTE: WE WILL BEGIN BACK WITH OUR SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF KASN TAF
(TALLADEGA AL) ON OCTOBER 5TH AT THE 00Z ISSUANCE AND IT WILL RUN
THROUGH OCTOBER 23RD 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  59  84  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    85  60  84  62  84 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  86  63  85  63  87 /   0   0   0  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  90  64  88  64  90 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      88  63  86  64  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      89  63  88  65  87 /  10   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  91  65  89  66  90 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        92  64  90  66  89 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

61/08






000
FXUS64 KBMX 170923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
423 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY FROM
THE NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER. SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT SHOWS SOME PATCHES
OF LOW CLOUDS...BUT IT SEEMS NOTHING NEAR AS WIDESPREAD AS
PREVIOUS MORNINGS. THOSE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT AND GIVE WAY TO
LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY.

A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH (AT LEAST) THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK SHOULD KEEP THE GULF SHUT OFF. WE WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH WHAT HAPPENS TO THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...AS THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT STORM COULD EVENTUALLY GET CARRIED WESTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. OTHERWISE...I`VE INTRODUCED ONLY VERY
SMALL POPS INTO THE FORECAST AT THE TAIL END...AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE POTENTIAL OF LOWER CEILINGS
DEVELOPMENT OR ADVECTION IN THE FROM THE NORTH. AT THIS
TIME...KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH MENTION OF
A FEW MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG.

AS EXPECTED...SOME LOCATIONS ARE CLOSING IN ON THEIR DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS THIS EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND
5 SM. AS THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION FLUCTUATES OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY
BE PERIODS WHERE SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPS AND MENTIONED THIS CHANCE
AT ALL BUT BHM.

CLOUD COVER ALSO SEEMS TRICKY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE LOWER
LEVELS DRYING MORE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE POTENTIAL OF A SHORT PERIOD
OF VFR CEILINGS. LOOKING AT THE PRESSURE ADVECTION...LOCAL
PRESSURE DERIVATIVE AND MIXING RATIO...SOME CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP
AROUND 025. AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF VFR BUT
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF MVFR AT TCL. WILL MONITOR THESE CLOUDS THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR ANY ESTABLISHED TRENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH DRYING CONTINUING AND
LITTLE CLOUD COVER. DAYTIME WINDS AROUND 7KTS AND CALM BY NIGHT
FALL.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  59  84  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    85  60  84  62  84 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  86  63  85  63  87 /   0   0   0  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  90  64  88  64  90 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      88  63  86  64  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      89  63  88  65  87 /  10   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  91  65  89  66  90 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        92  64  90  66  89 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 170923
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
423 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY FROM
THE NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER. SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT SHOWS SOME PATCHES
OF LOW CLOUDS...BUT IT SEEMS NOTHING NEAR AS WIDESPREAD AS
PREVIOUS MORNINGS. THOSE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT AND GIVE WAY TO
LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY.

A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH (AT LEAST) THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK SHOULD KEEP THE GULF SHUT OFF. WE WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH WHAT HAPPENS TO THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...AS THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT STORM COULD EVENTUALLY GET CARRIED WESTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. OTHERWISE...I`VE INTRODUCED ONLY VERY
SMALL POPS INTO THE FORECAST AT THE TAIL END...AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE POTENTIAL OF LOWER CEILINGS
DEVELOPMENT OR ADVECTION IN THE FROM THE NORTH. AT THIS
TIME...KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH MENTION OF
A FEW MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG.

AS EXPECTED...SOME LOCATIONS ARE CLOSING IN ON THEIR DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS THIS EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND
5 SM. AS THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION FLUCTUATES OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY
BE PERIODS WHERE SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPS AND MENTIONED THIS CHANCE
AT ALL BUT BHM.

CLOUD COVER ALSO SEEMS TRICKY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE LOWER
LEVELS DRYING MORE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE POTENTIAL OF A SHORT PERIOD
OF VFR CEILINGS. LOOKING AT THE PRESSURE ADVECTION...LOCAL
PRESSURE DERIVATIVE AND MIXING RATIO...SOME CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP
AROUND 025. AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF VFR BUT
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF MVFR AT TCL. WILL MONITOR THESE CLOUDS THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR ANY ESTABLISHED TRENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH DRYING CONTINUING AND
LITTLE CLOUD COVER. DAYTIME WINDS AROUND 7KTS AND CALM BY NIGHT
FALL.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  59  84  60  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    85  60  84  62  84 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  86  63  85  63  87 /   0   0   0  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  90  64  88  64  90 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      88  63  86  64  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      89  63  88  65  87 /  10   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  91  65  89  66  90 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        92  64  90  66  89 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 170404
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1104 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO REAL BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
ARE ON TRACK FOR AREAWIDE 60S. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW LOCAL AREAS
REACH THE UPPER 50S BY SUNRISE IN THE NORTHEAST. DEWPOINTS HAVE
NOT REALLY FALLEN OFF THAT MUCH AS THE DRIER BOUNDARY REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. WITH THAT IN MIND HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY BE ONE OF THOSE
NIGHTS IN WHICH FOG FORMS EARLY BUT THEN AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
THE FOG DISSIPATES EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH. THE MORE RICH AIRMASS WILL BE IN THE SOUTH...SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER THERE OF THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE POTENTIAL OF LOWER CEILINGS
DEVELOPMENT OR ADVECTION IN THE FROM THE NORTH. AT THIS
TIME...KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH MENTION OF
A FEW MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG.

AS EXPECTED...SOME LOCATIONS ARE CLOSING IN ON THEIR DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS THIS EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND
5 SM. AS THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION FLUCTUATES OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY
BE PERIODS WHERE SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPS AND MENTIONED THIS CHANCE
AT ALL BUT BHM.

CLOUD COVER ALSO SEEMS TRICKY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE LOWER
LEVELS DRYING MORE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE POTENTIAL OF A SHORT PERIOD
OF VFR CEILINGS. LOOKING AT THE PRESSURE ADVECTION...LOCAL
PRESSURE DERIVATIVE AND MIXING RATIO...SOME CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP
AROUND 025. AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF VFR BUT
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF MVFR AT TCL. WILL MONITOR THESE CLOUDS THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR ANY ESTABLISHED TRENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH DRYING CONTINUING AND
LITTLE CLOUD COVER. DAYTIME WINDS AROUND 7KTS AND CALM BY NIGHT
FALL.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  82  57  83  57 /  10   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    66  84  59  84  59 /  10   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  86  63  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  89  64  88  63 /  10   0   0  10   0
CALERA      68  86  63  84  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      69  88  63  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  70  90  65  88  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        68  89  64  88  63 /  10  10   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 170404
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1104 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO REAL BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
ARE ON TRACK FOR AREAWIDE 60S. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW LOCAL AREAS
REACH THE UPPER 50S BY SUNRISE IN THE NORTHEAST. DEWPOINTS HAVE
NOT REALLY FALLEN OFF THAT MUCH AS THE DRIER BOUNDARY REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. WITH THAT IN MIND HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY BE ONE OF THOSE
NIGHTS IN WHICH FOG FORMS EARLY BUT THEN AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
THE FOG DISSIPATES EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH. THE MORE RICH AIRMASS WILL BE IN THE SOUTH...SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER THERE OF THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE POTENTIAL OF LOWER CEILINGS
DEVELOPMENT OR ADVECTION IN THE FROM THE NORTH. AT THIS
TIME...KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH MENTION OF
A FEW MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG.

AS EXPECTED...SOME LOCATIONS ARE CLOSING IN ON THEIR DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS THIS EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND
5 SM. AS THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION FLUCTUATES OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY
BE PERIODS WHERE SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPS AND MENTIONED THIS CHANCE
AT ALL BUT BHM.

CLOUD COVER ALSO SEEMS TRICKY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE LOWER
LEVELS DRYING MORE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE POTENTIAL OF A SHORT PERIOD
OF VFR CEILINGS. LOOKING AT THE PRESSURE ADVECTION...LOCAL
PRESSURE DERIVATIVE AND MIXING RATIO...SOME CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP
AROUND 025. AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF VFR BUT
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF MVFR AT TCL. WILL MONITOR THESE CLOUDS THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR ANY ESTABLISHED TRENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH DRYING CONTINUING AND
LITTLE CLOUD COVER. DAYTIME WINDS AROUND 7KTS AND CALM BY NIGHT
FALL.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  82  57  83  57 /  10   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    66  84  59  84  59 /  10   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  86  63  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  89  64  88  63 /  10   0   0  10   0
CALERA      68  86  63  84  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      69  88  63  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  70  90  65  88  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        68  89  64  88  63 /  10  10   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 170404
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1104 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO REAL BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
ARE ON TRACK FOR AREAWIDE 60S. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW LOCAL AREAS
REACH THE UPPER 50S BY SUNRISE IN THE NORTHEAST. DEWPOINTS HAVE
NOT REALLY FALLEN OFF THAT MUCH AS THE DRIER BOUNDARY REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. WITH THAT IN MIND HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY BE ONE OF THOSE
NIGHTS IN WHICH FOG FORMS EARLY BUT THEN AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
THE FOG DISSIPATES EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH. THE MORE RICH AIRMASS WILL BE IN THE SOUTH...SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER THERE OF THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE POTENTIAL OF LOWER CEILINGS
DEVELOPMENT OR ADVECTION IN THE FROM THE NORTH. AT THIS
TIME...KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH MENTION OF
A FEW MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG.

AS EXPECTED...SOME LOCATIONS ARE CLOSING IN ON THEIR DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS THIS EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND
5 SM. AS THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION FLUCTUATES OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY
BE PERIODS WHERE SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPS AND MENTIONED THIS CHANCE
AT ALL BUT BHM.

CLOUD COVER ALSO SEEMS TRICKY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE LOWER
LEVELS DRYING MORE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE POTENTIAL OF A SHORT PERIOD
OF VFR CEILINGS. LOOKING AT THE PRESSURE ADVECTION...LOCAL
PRESSURE DERIVATIVE AND MIXING RATIO...SOME CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP
AROUND 025. AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF VFR BUT
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF MVFR AT TCL. WILL MONITOR THESE CLOUDS THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR ANY ESTABLISHED TRENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH DRYING CONTINUING AND
LITTLE CLOUD COVER. DAYTIME WINDS AROUND 7KTS AND CALM BY NIGHT
FALL.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  82  57  83  57 /  10   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    66  84  59  84  59 /  10   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  86  63  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  89  64  88  63 /  10   0   0  10   0
CALERA      68  86  63  84  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      69  88  63  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  70  90  65  88  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        68  89  64  88  63 /  10  10   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 170404
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1104 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO REAL BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
ARE ON TRACK FOR AREAWIDE 60S. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW LOCAL AREAS
REACH THE UPPER 50S BY SUNRISE IN THE NORTHEAST. DEWPOINTS HAVE
NOT REALLY FALLEN OFF THAT MUCH AS THE DRIER BOUNDARY REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. WITH THAT IN MIND HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY BE ONE OF THOSE
NIGHTS IN WHICH FOG FORMS EARLY BUT THEN AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
THE FOG DISSIPATES EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH. THE MORE RICH AIRMASS WILL BE IN THE SOUTH...SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER THERE OF THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE POTENTIAL OF LOWER CEILINGS
DEVELOPMENT OR ADVECTION IN THE FROM THE NORTH. AT THIS
TIME...KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH MENTION OF
A FEW MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG.

AS EXPECTED...SOME LOCATIONS ARE CLOSING IN ON THEIR DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS THIS EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND
5 SM. AS THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION FLUCTUATES OVERNIGHT...THERE MAY
BE PERIODS WHERE SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPS AND MENTIONED THIS CHANCE
AT ALL BUT BHM.

CLOUD COVER ALSO SEEMS TRICKY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE LOWER
LEVELS DRYING MORE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE POTENTIAL OF A SHORT PERIOD
OF VFR CEILINGS. LOOKING AT THE PRESSURE ADVECTION...LOCAL
PRESSURE DERIVATIVE AND MIXING RATIO...SOME CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP
AROUND 025. AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF VFR BUT
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF MVFR AT TCL. WILL MONITOR THESE CLOUDS THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR ANY ESTABLISHED TRENDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS REMAIN NORTHWEST WITH DRYING CONTINUING AND
LITTLE CLOUD COVER. DAYTIME WINDS AROUND 7KTS AND CALM BY NIGHT
FALL.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  82  57  83  57 /  10   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    66  84  59  84  59 /  10   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  86  63  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  89  64  88  63 /  10   0   0  10   0
CALERA      68  86  63  84  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      69  88  63  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  70  90  65  88  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        68  89  64  88  63 /  10  10   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 170301
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1001 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO REAL BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
ARE ON TRACK FOR AREAWIDE 60S. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW LOCAL AREAS
REACH THE UPPER 50S BY SUNRISE IN THE NORTHEAST. DEWPOINTS HAVE
NOT REALLY FALLEN OFF THAT MUCH AS THE DRIER BOUNDARY REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. WITH THAT IN MIND HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY BE ONE OF THOSE
NIGHTS IN WHICH FOG FORMS EARLY BUT THEN AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
THE FOG DISSIPATES EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH. THE MORE RICH AIRMASS WILL BE IN THE SOUTH...SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER THERE OF THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD WILL BE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOPING OR
ADVECTING IN THE FROM THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME...LEANED MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH MENTION OF A FEW VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG.

SEVERAL BOUNDARIES REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING NORTH AND FAR SOUTH.
EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN A FEW HOURS. MENTIONED THIS
ACTIVITY ONLY AT TOI/MGM.

A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS WAS SITTING NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT HAVING A TOUGH TIME GATHERING ANY
SIGNIFICANT PUSH THIS WAY. THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS IN THE
015-025 RANGE AND ALSO NEAR 040...AND POSSIBLY SOME AT 080-100 DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT THE MOISTURE DWINDLES A BIT AS IT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THEREFORE...DID LEAN OPTIMISTIC AND WILL MONITOR THE
NORTH CLOSELY FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE. SEEM EVEN LESS IMPRESSED WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL GROUND
MOISTURE AND COOLER CONDITIONS WORKING INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY END
UP BEING A SITUATION WHERE A FEW SITES HIT MVFR VIS EARLY AND THEN
CLEAR. WILL ALSO MONITOR THIS FOG POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS AND NO MENTION OF ANY CONVECTION.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  82  57  83  57 /  10   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    66  84  59  84  59 /  10   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  86  63  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  89  64  88  63 /  10   0   0  10   0
CALERA      68  86  63  84  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      69  88  63  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  70  90  65  88  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        68  89  64  88  63 /  10  10   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 170301
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1001 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO REAL BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
ARE ON TRACK FOR AREAWIDE 60S. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW LOCAL AREAS
REACH THE UPPER 50S BY SUNRISE IN THE NORTHEAST. DEWPOINTS HAVE
NOT REALLY FALLEN OFF THAT MUCH AS THE DRIER BOUNDARY REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. WITH THAT IN MIND HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY BE ONE OF THOSE
NIGHTS IN WHICH FOG FORMS EARLY BUT THEN AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
THE FOG DISSIPATES EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH. THE MORE RICH AIRMASS WILL BE IN THE SOUTH...SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER THERE OF THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD WILL BE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOPING OR
ADVECTING IN THE FROM THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME...LEANED MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH MENTION OF A FEW VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG.

SEVERAL BOUNDARIES REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING NORTH AND FAR SOUTH.
EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN A FEW HOURS. MENTIONED THIS
ACTIVITY ONLY AT TOI/MGM.

A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS WAS SITTING NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT HAVING A TOUGH TIME GATHERING ANY
SIGNIFICANT PUSH THIS WAY. THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS IN THE
015-025 RANGE AND ALSO NEAR 040...AND POSSIBLY SOME AT 080-100 DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT THE MOISTURE DWINDLES A BIT AS IT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THEREFORE...DID LEAN OPTIMISTIC AND WILL MONITOR THE
NORTH CLOSELY FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE. SEEM EVEN LESS IMPRESSED WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL GROUND
MOISTURE AND COOLER CONDITIONS WORKING INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY END
UP BEING A SITUATION WHERE A FEW SITES HIT MVFR VIS EARLY AND THEN
CLEAR. WILL ALSO MONITOR THIS FOG POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS AND NO MENTION OF ANY CONVECTION.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  82  57  83  57 /  10   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    66  84  59  84  59 /  10   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  86  63  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  89  64  88  63 /  10   0   0  10   0
CALERA      68  86  63  84  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      69  88  63  86  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  70  90  65  88  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        68  89  64  88  63 /  10  10   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 162354
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
654 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING IN A DRIER AIRMASS THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. OTHER THAN A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS...NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A EASTERLY BACKDOOR
FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND MIGHT PRODUCE A FEW
SPRINKLES CLOSER TO THE GEORGIA LINE. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER FRONT
THAT WILL APPROACH MONDAY AHEAD OF A BROADER EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH...BUT THE MOISTURE REALLY DRIES UP AS THE FRONT REACHES
THE DEEP SOUTH...SO VERY LIMITED POPS THEN.

TEMPERATURES LOOK VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND
LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD WILL BE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOPING OR
ADVECTING IN THE FROM THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME...LEANED MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH MENTION OF A FEW VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG.

SEVERAL BOUNDARIES REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING NORTH AND FAR SOUTH.
EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN A FEW HOURS. MENTIONED THIS
ACTIVITY ONLY AT TOI/MGM.

A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS WAS SITTING NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT HAVING A TOUGH TIME GATHERING ANY
SIGNIFICANT PUSH THIS WAY. THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS IN THE
015-025 RANGE AND ALSO NEAR 040...AND POSSIBLY SOME AT 080-100 DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT THE MOISTURE DWINDLES A BIT AS IT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THEREFORE...DID LEAN OPTIMISTIC AND WILL MONITOR THE
NORTH CLOSELY FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE. SEEM EVEN LESS IMPRESSED WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL GROUND
MOISTURE AND COOLER CONDITIONS WORKING INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY END
UP BEING A SITUATION WHERE A FEW SITES HIT MVFR VIS EARLY AND THEN
CLEAR. WILL ALSO MONITOR THIS FOG POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS AND NO MENTION OF ANY CONVECTION.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  82  57  83  57 /  20   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    66  84  59  84  59 /  20   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  86  63  86  63 /  20   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  89  64  88  63 /  20   0   0  10   0
CALERA      68  86  63  84  63 /  20   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      69  88  63  86  63 /  20   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  70  90  65  88  65 /  20   0   0  10  10
TROY        68  89  64  88  63 /  30  10   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 162354
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
654 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING IN A DRIER AIRMASS THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. OTHER THAN A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS...NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A EASTERLY BACKDOOR
FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND MIGHT PRODUCE A FEW
SPRINKLES CLOSER TO THE GEORGIA LINE. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER FRONT
THAT WILL APPROACH MONDAY AHEAD OF A BROADER EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH...BUT THE MOISTURE REALLY DRIES UP AS THE FRONT REACHES
THE DEEP SOUTH...SO VERY LIMITED POPS THEN.

TEMPERATURES LOOK VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND
LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD WILL BE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOPING OR
ADVECTING IN THE FROM THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME...LEANED MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH MENTION OF A FEW VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG.

SEVERAL BOUNDARIES REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING NORTH AND FAR SOUTH.
EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN A FEW HOURS. MENTIONED THIS
ACTIVITY ONLY AT TOI/MGM.

A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS WAS SITTING NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT HAVING A TOUGH TIME GATHERING ANY
SIGNIFICANT PUSH THIS WAY. THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS IN THE
015-025 RANGE AND ALSO NEAR 040...AND POSSIBLY SOME AT 080-100 DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT THE MOISTURE DWINDLES A BIT AS IT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THEREFORE...DID LEAN OPTIMISTIC AND WILL MONITOR THE
NORTH CLOSELY FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE. SEEM EVEN LESS IMPRESSED WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL GROUND
MOISTURE AND COOLER CONDITIONS WORKING INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY END
UP BEING A SITUATION WHERE A FEW SITES HIT MVFR VIS EARLY AND THEN
CLEAR. WILL ALSO MONITOR THIS FOG POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS AND NO MENTION OF ANY CONVECTION.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  82  57  83  57 /  20   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    66  84  59  84  59 /  20   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  86  63  86  63 /  20   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  89  64  88  63 /  20   0   0  10   0
CALERA      68  86  63  84  63 /  20   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      69  88  63  86  63 /  20   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  70  90  65  88  65 /  20   0   0  10  10
TROY        68  89  64  88  63 /  30  10   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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