000
FXUS64 KBMX 201138
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
638 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE BROAD
UPPER TROF ROTATE THRU THE REGION BRINGING A COUPLE OF WEAK
BOUNDARIES INTO/THRU THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING AT CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...A STRATUS DECK THAT
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS
A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL AL. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE FAR NE AS DEW POINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. ELSEWHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE
60S.
LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER ALL MODELS ARE
HINTING AT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION IN GA MOVING
WESTWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS HOLDS
TRUE THEN WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED ISO WORDING IN AFTER 19Z FOR THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY SUNSET.
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER AL AND MEAN MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW
FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE ANY
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT MIGHT TRAVERSE THE AREA AND PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME ISO DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WILL STILL BE RUNNING
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES PUSH SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FIRST OF THESE WILL DRAG A FRONT/BOUNDARY THRU THE AREA
WED/WED NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...BUT WITH
LITTLE TO NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NO LOW LEVEL JET...AND LITTLE
SHEAR DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MORE OR
LESS JUST SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS IN THE NW AS CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT LOWER. LOCATIONS IN THE
SE COULD STILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST AND WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
BOUNDARY THRU ON THU. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF
WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE...BUT DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE FIRST BOUNDARY WHICH WILL STILL BE IN THE
AREA. SO WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR NOW.
THE MAIN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THRU THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
NW FLOW ALOFT COULD PRESENT SOME TROUBLES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY
MCS DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS BUT WILL WORRY ABOUT THAT LATER.
19
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH MOSTLY IFR TO MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. GRADUAL CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS PREVAILING FROM THE
SOUTH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ANTICIPATED. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE INTO THE PLANNING PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
56/GDG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 88 64 88 69 82 / 10 10 10 10 40
ANNISTON 88 66 89 68 84 / 10 10 10 10 40
BIRMINGHAM 89 68 90 68 83 / 10 10 10 10 40
TUSCALOOSA 92 65 92 68 83 / 10 10 10 20 40
CALERA 89 67 90 68 84 / 10 10 10 10 30
AUBURN 87 66 88 67 85 / 10 10 10 10 30
MONTGOMERY 92 66 92 69 88 / 10 10 10 10 30
TROY 89 64 91 68 89 / 10 10 10 10 30
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 200945
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
445 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE BROAD
UPPER TROF ROTATE THRU THE REGION BRINGING A COUPLE OF WEAK
BOUNDARIES INTO/THRU THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING AT CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...A STRATUS DECK THAT
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS
A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL AL. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE FAR NE AS DEW POINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. ELSEWHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE
60S.
LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER ALL MODELS ARE
HINTING AT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION IN GA MOVING
WESTWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS HOLDS
TRUE THEN WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED ISO WORDING IN AFTER 19Z FOR THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY SUNSET.
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER AL AND MEAN MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW
FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE ANY
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT MIGHT TRAVERSE THE AREA AND PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME ISO DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WILL STILL BE RUNNING
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES PUSH SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FIRST OF THESE WILL DRAG A FRONT/BOUNDARY THRU THE AREA
WED/WED NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...BUT WITH
LITTLE TO NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NO LOW LEVEL JET...AND LITTLE
SHEAR DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MORE OR
LESS JUST SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS IN THE NW AS CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT LOWER. LOCATIONS IN THE
SE COULD STILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST AND WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
BOUNDARY THRU ON THU. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF
WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE...BUT DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE FIRST BOUNDARY WHICH WILL STILL BE IN THE
AREA. SO WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR NOW.
THE MAIN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THRU THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
NW FLOW ALOFT COULD PRESENT SOME TROUBLES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY
MCS DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS BUT WILL WORRY ABOUT THAT LATER.
19
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 09Z BEFORE LOW CIGS MAY
BEGIN TO FORM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SUCH DEVELOPMENT BUT CIGS AND
VIS DIPPING TO IFR LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE AS WEAK AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO
LINGER LONGER THAN INDICATED.
87/GRANTHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 88 64 88 69 82 / 10 10 10 10 40
ANNISTON 88 66 89 68 84 / 10 10 10 10 40
BIRMINGHAM 89 68 90 68 83 / 10 10 10 10 40
TUSCALOOSA 92 65 92 68 83 / 10 10 10 20 40
CALERA 89 67 90 68 84 / 10 10 10 10 30
AUBURN 87 66 88 67 85 / 10 10 10 10 30
MONTGOMERY 92 66 92 69 88 / 10 10 10 10 30
TROY 89 64 91 68 89 / 10 10 10 10 30
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 200456
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA HELPED CONTINUE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE ABOUT 6 PM...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
THE STORMS HAVE BEEN DECREASING. NO MORE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
IN THE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED THE FLOODING EARLIER IN THE
WEEKEND...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.
THERE`S 3 OR 4 ACTIVE CELLS REMAINING...ALL NEAR THE US-280
CORRIDOR. EXPECT THAT THE DECREASING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND PERHAPS FOGGY HERE AND THERE...BUT THE RAIN SHOULD BE
DONE. WILL HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS OUT SOON.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 09Z BEFORE LOW CIGS MAY
BEGIN TO FORM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SUCH DEVELOPMENT BUT CIGS AND
VIS DIPPING TO IFR LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE AS WEAK AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO
LINGER LONGER THAN INDICATED.
87/GRANTHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 67 90 64 88 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
ANNISTON 66 88 66 89 66 / 20 10 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 67 90 68 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 67 92 65 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
CALERA 67 89 67 90 68 / 20 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 66 88 66 88 65 / 50 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 67 91 66 92 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
TROY 67 89 64 91 67 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
61/87
000
FXUS64 KBMX 200107
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
807 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA HELPED CONTINUE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE ABOUT 6 PM...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
STORMS HAVE BEEN DECREASING. NO MORE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED THE FLOODING EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND...AND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. THERE`S 3 OR 4
ACTIVE CELLS REMAINING...ALL NEAR THE US-280 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THAT
THE DECREASING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. AFTER
THAT TIME...CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND PERHAPS FOGGY HERE
AND THERE...BUT THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE. WILL HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS
OUT SOON.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z BEFORE LOW CIGS BEGIN TO
FORM. MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT CANNON RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
STORM NEAR KBHM. CIGS AND VIS DIPPING TO IFR LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND AROUND DAYBREAK AS WEAK AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY.
87/GRANTHAM
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 192357
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
657 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LUCKILY THE BULK OF THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED EAST OF THE AREA AS
THE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN FASTER THAN MOST MODELS. WE WILL STILL NEED
TO WATCH THE COLD POOL AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD POOL WE ARE ALSO WATCHING A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND MCS IS
IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN TN AND WILL SLIDE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
FFA THROUGH 7 PM. IN ADDITION WE HAVE INTRODUCED SEVERE INTO THE
HWO AS WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MUCAPES ARE IN
EXCESS OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG IN FAR NORTHEAST AL. THE MAIN WEAKNESS
THAT THE STORMS ARE GOING TO SLIDE DOWN WOULD BE THE OUTFLOW FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA.
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY 1 AM. AFTER
THAT...THERE IS PLENTY OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AROUND SO LOW CLOUDS
AND OR PATCHY WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. IN FACT MUCH LIKE LAST
NIGHT THE FOG MAY DEVELOP FIRST AND THEN THE LOW CLOUDS WORK INTO
THE AREA. DO NOT SEE ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF LESS THAN ONE MILE SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
FOR MONDAY...DRY EVERYWHERE AS THE HIGH IS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE BOARD. ON
TUESDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND WE WILL TRY TO GET SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...MORE OF YOUR SUMMERTIME POPCORN VARIETY.
BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DESCEND INTO THE
AREA. THE GFS NEVER REALLY PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH...UNTIL A
SECOND FRONT CLEARS BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH THE EURO
AND GFS AGREE ON THIS SO ADDED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z BEFORE LOW CIGS BEGIN TO
FORM. MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT CANNON RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
STORM NEAR KBHM. CIGS AND VIS DIPPING TO IFR LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND AROUND DAYBREAK AS WEAK AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY.
87/GRANTHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 67 90 64 88 68 / 90 10 10 10 10
ANNISTON 66 88 66 89 66 / 90 10 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 67 90 68 90 68 / 50 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 67 92 65 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
CALERA 67 89 67 90 68 / 40 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 66 88 66 88 65 / 40 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 67 91 66 92 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
TROY 67 89 64 91 67 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...RANDOLPH.
&&
$$
16/87
000
FXUS64 KBMX 192015
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
315 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LUCKILY THE BULK OF THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED EAST OF THE AREA AS
THE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN FASTER THAN MOST MODELS. WE WILL STILL NEED
TO WATCH THE COLD POOL AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD POOL WE ARE ALSO WATCHING A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND MCS IS IN
THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN TN AND WILL SLIDE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO WE HAVE EXTENDED THE FFA THROUGH
7 PM. IN ADDITION WE HAVE INTRODUCED SEVERE INTO THE HWO AS WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MUCAPES ARE IN EXCESS OF 2500 TO
3000 J/KG IN FAR NORTHEAST AL. THE MAIN WEAKNESS THAT THE STORMS
ARE GOING TO SLIDE DOWN WOULD BE THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA.
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY 1 AM. AFTER THAT...THERE
IS PLENTY OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AROUND SO LOW CLOUDS AND OR PATCHY
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. IN FACT MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT THE FOG MAY
DEVELOP FIRST AND THEN THE LOW CLOUDS WORK INTO THE AREA. DO NOT SEE
ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF LESS THAN ONE MILE SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
FOR MONDAY...DRY EVERYWHERE AS THE HIGH IS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE BOARD. ON
TUESDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND WE WILL TRY TO GET SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...MORE OF YOUR SUMMERTIME POPCORN VARIETY.
BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DESCEND INTO THE
AREA. THE GFS NEVER REALLY PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH...UNTIL A SECOND
FRONT CLEARS BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS
AGREE ON THIS SO ADDED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
DUE TO SATURATION AND LIGHT WINDS UP TO 4KFT...COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS REGION FROM SOUTHWEST...MIXING
HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE. UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO AREA AND ANY EXPECTED
CONVECTION WILL BE IN FAR EASTERN AL ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN GA. KANB HAS A REMOTE CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WITH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST TAF LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS FORMATION...AND WITH HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS...MVFR FOG IS LIKELY AS WELL...ALL AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AGAIN UNTIL AFTER 15Z MONDAY.
STEFKOVICH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 67 90 64 88 68 / 70 10 10 10 10
ANNISTON 66 88 66 89 66 / 70 10 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 67 90 68 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 67 92 65 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
CALERA 67 89 67 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 66 88 66 88 65 / 50 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 67 91 66 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
TROY 67 89 64 91 67 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...RANDOLPH.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 191914
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
214 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LUCKILY THE BULK OF THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED EAST OF THE AREA AS
THE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN FASTER THAN MOST MODELS. WE WILL STILL NEED
TO WATCH THE COLD POOL AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD POOL WE ARE ALSO WATCHING A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ADDITIONAL
LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL HELP INCREASE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD
EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY 10 PM. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERE IS PLENTY OF
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AROUND SO LOW CLOUDS AND OR PATCHY WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN. IN FACT MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT THE FOG MAY DEVELOP FIRST
AND THEN THE LOW CLOUDS WORK INTO THE AREA. DO NOT SEE ANY
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LESS THAN ONE MILE SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
HWO AT THIS TIME.
FOR MONDAY...DRY EVERYWHERE AS THE HIGH IS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE BOARD. ON
TUESDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND WE WILL TRY TO GET SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...MORE OF YOUR SUMMERTIME POPCORN VARIETY.
BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DESCEND INTO THE
AREA. THE GFS NEVER REALLY PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH...UNTIL A SECOND
FRONT CLEARS BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS
AGREE ON THIS SO ADDED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
DUE TO SATURATION AND LIGHT WINDS UP TO 4KFT...COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS REGION FROM SOUTHWEST...MIXING
HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE. UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO AREA AND ANY EXPECTED
CONVECTION WILL BE IN FAR EASTERN AL ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN GA. KANB HAS A REMOTE CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WITH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST TAF LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS FORMATION...AND WITH HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS...MVFR FOG IS LIKELY AS WELL...ALL AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AGAIN UNTIL AFTER 15Z MONDAY.
STEFKOVICH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 67 90 64 88 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
ANNISTON 66 88 66 89 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 67 90 68 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 67 92 65 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
CALERA 67 89 67 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 66 88 66 88 65 / 20 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 67 91 66 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
TROY 67 89 64 91 67 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CLAY...
CLEBURNE...LEE...RANDOLPH...TALLAPOOSA.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 191820
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
110 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CALMER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING ARE WELCOMED
AFTER FLOODING AFFECTED EASTERN LOCATIONS YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN
ELEVATED STREAM LEVELS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AT CAUTION OR FLOOD STAGE.
SEE THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR SPECIFICS. MOST OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY...EXPECT THE EAST WHERE RAINFALL IS NOT
NEEDED. THE SLOW MOVING PATTERN WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST TONIGHT
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS MORNING...A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND PROVIDING LIFT FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL FINALLY PUSH THIS TROUGH AWAY FROM THE AREA
STRETCHES NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CIRRUS FROM A MCS
ROTATING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN OK AND KS IS
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT WAS
ONGOING EARLIER TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS DISSIPATED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REDEVELOPMENT TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
FAR EAST...WHERE FORCING FROM THE NEARBY TROUGH WILL HELP SPARK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD
THE AREA...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A WHOLE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWS REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION. CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS ANY RAINFALL COULD COMPLICATE FLOOD PROBLEMS.
WILL NOT CARRY ANY POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS...ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO THE FORECAST. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AND DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY DENSE FOG PROBLEMS AT THIS POINT.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY. DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AND HIGHS AROUND 90. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL COME FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. MOST OF THE
FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW
CROSSING THE MIDWEST. WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITIES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS AND NO MENTION OF
SEVERE IN THE HWO.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN REGARDS TO
HOW QUICKLY MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL
FAVOR THE DRIER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR NOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
14
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
DUE TO SATURATION AND LIGHT WINDS UP TO 4KFT...COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS REGION FROM SOUTHWEST...MIXING
HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE. UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO AREA AND ANY EXPECTED
CONVECTION WILL BE IN FAR EASTERN AL ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN GA. KANB HAS A REMOTE CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WITH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST TAF LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS FORMATION...AND WITH HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS...MVFR FOG IS LIKELY AS WELL...ALL AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AGAIN UNTIL AFTER 15Z MONDAY. STEFKOVICH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 84 67 90 64 89 / 50 20 10 10 10
ANNISTON 85 66 89 66 89 / 60 30 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 87 67 90 68 90 / 20 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 89 67 92 65 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
CALERA 87 67 88 67 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 86 66 88 66 88 / 50 30 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 90 67 91 66 91 / 20 10 10 10 10
TROY 89 67 89 64 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 191126
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
626 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CALMER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING ARE
WELCOMED AFTER FLOODING AFFECTED EASTERN LOCATIONS YESTERDAY...RESULTING
IN ELEVATED STREAM LEVELS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AT CAUTION OR FLOOD
STAGE. SEE THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR SPECIFICS. MOST
OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY...EXPECT THE EAST WHERE
RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED. THE SLOW MOVING PATTERN WILL SHIFT FAR
ENOUGH EAST TONIGHT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA FOR
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS MORNING...A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND PROVIDING LIFT FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL FINALLY PUSH THIS TROUGH AWAY FROM THE AREA
STRETCHES NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CIRRUS FROM A MCS
ROTATING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN OK AND KS IS
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT WAS
ONGOING EARLIER TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS DISSIPATED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REDEVELOPMENT TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
FAR EAST...WHERE FORCING FROM THE NEARBY TROUGH WILL HELP SPARK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD
THE AREA...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A WHOLE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWS REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION. CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS ANY RAINFALL COULD COMPLICATE FLOOD PROBLEMS.
WILL NOT CARRY ANY POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS...ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO THE FORECAST. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AND DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY DENSE FOG PROBLEMS AT THIS POINT.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY. DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AND HIGHS AROUND 90. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL COME FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. MOST OF THE FORCING
REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW CROSSING
THE MIDWEST. WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITIES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND
WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS AND NO MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE
HWO.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN REGARDS TO
HOW QUICKLY MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL
FAVOR THE DRIER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR NOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
14
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ISO/SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY MAINLY IN THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SSW TODAY AT 5-10 KTS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE
TO MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM SFC WINDS.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 84 67 90 64 89 / 50 20 10 10 10
ANNISTON 85 66 89 66 89 / 60 30 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 87 67 90 68 90 / 20 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 89 67 92 65 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
CALERA 87 67 88 67 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 86 66 88 66 88 / 50 30 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 90 67 91 66 91 / 20 10 10 10 10
TROY 89 67 89 64 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 190957
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
457 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CALMER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING ARE
WELCOMED AFTER FLOODING AFFECTED EASTERN LOCATIONS YESTERDAY...RESULTING
IN ELEVATED STREAM LEVELS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AT CAUTION OR FLOOD
STAGE. SEE THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR SPECIFICS. MOST
OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY...EXPECT THE EAST WHERE
RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED. THE SLOW MOVING PATTERN WILL SHIFT FAR
ENOUGH EAST TONIGHT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA FOR
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS MORNING...A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND PROVIDING LIFT FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL FINALLY PUSH THIS TROUGH AWAY FROM THE AREA
STRETCHES NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CIRRUS FROM A MCS
ROTATING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN OK AND KS IS
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT WAS
ONGOING EARLIER TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS DISSIPATED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REDEVELOPMENT TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
FAR EAST...WHERE FORCING FROM THE NEARBY TROUGH WILL HELP SPARK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD
THE AREA...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A WHOLE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWS REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION. CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS ANY RAINFALL COULD COMPLICATE FLOOD PROBLEMS.
WILL NOT CARRY ANY POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS...ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO THE FORECAST. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AND DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY DENSE FOG PROBLEMS AT THIS POINT.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY. DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AND HIGHS AROUND 90. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL COME FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. MOST OF THE FORCING
REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW CROSSING
THE MIDWEST. WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITIES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND
WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS AND NO MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE
HWO.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN REGARDS TO
HOW QUICKLY MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL
FAVOR THE DRIER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR NOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
14
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT TAFS WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE CURRENT HOUR. EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
MOISTEN WITH MVFR CIGS AND VIS FORMING BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS IN THE NORTH AND EAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KANB THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCLEAR. IMPROVING CIGS
AND VIS SHOULD OCCUR BY 14Z AT ALL SITES.
87/GRANTHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 84 67 90 64 89 / 50 20 10 10 10
ANNISTON 85 66 89 66 89 / 60 30 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 87 67 90 68 90 / 20 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 89 67 92 65 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
CALERA 87 67 88 67 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 86 66 88 66 88 / 50 30 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 90 67 91 66 91 / 20 10 10 10 10
TROY 89 67 89 64 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 190458
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WILL MAKE JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE USUAL TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
TWEAKS...WILL ALSO BUMP UP POPS JUST A BIT IN A SMALL ZONE DOWN
AROUND MGM (MAINLY DUE TO THE ONGOING SHOWERS DOWN THERE). THE
CURRENT AREA OF LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHEAST LOOKS FINE...AS THERE
ARE SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO "PERCOLATE" UP THERE. GIVEN THE SCALE
OF THE PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT...I THINK IT IS CERTAINLY PRUDENT
TO MAINTAIN THE PRESENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS WELL. WILL HAVE
UPDATED FORECASTS OUT SOON.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT TAFS WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE CURRENT HOUR. EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
MOISTEN WITH MVFR CIGS AND VIS FORMING BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS IN THE NORTH AND EAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KANB THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCLEAR. IMPROVING CIGS
AND VIS SHOULD OCCUR BY 14Z AT ALL SITES.
87/GRANTHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 65 83 66 90 67 / 70 60 20 10 10
ANNISTON 65 83 65 89 67 / 70 70 30 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 66 85 66 89 67 / 50 30 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 67 87 66 89 66 / 20 10 10 10 10
CALERA 66 85 66 89 67 / 30 20 10 10 10
AUBURN 64 84 65 88 68 / 40 50 30 10 10
MONTGOMERY 66 87 66 91 67 / 20 20 10 10 10
TROY 65 87 66 91 66 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...
CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...JEFFERSON...LEE...
MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...
TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.
&&
$$
61/87
000
FXUS64 KBMX 190127
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
827 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WILL MAKE JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE USUAL TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
TWEAKS...WILL ALSO BUMP UP POPS JUST A BIT IN A SMALL ZONE DOWN
AROUND MGM (MAINLY DUE TO THE ONGOING SHOWERS DOWN THERE). THE
CURRENT AREA OF LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHEAST LOOKS FINE...AS THERE
ARE SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO "PERCOLATE" UP THERE. GIVEN THE SCALE
OF THE PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT...I THINK IT IS CERTAINLY PRUDENT
TO MAINTAIN THE PRESENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS WELL. WILL HAVE
UPDATED FORECASTS OUT SOON.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS NOT BEEN AS WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE STORMS THIS MORNING STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EVEN WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TO THE WEST OF MGM AND
TOI... HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF ANY PRECIP OVERNIGHT FROM ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT ANB... WHICH HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THERE IS SOME QUESTION
REGARDING MVFR VERSUS IFR CIGS... AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MVFR FOR
MOST SITES... WITH IFR INCLUDED ONLY AT EET BECAUSE IT TENDS TO GO
LOWER THAN OTHER LOCATIONS... AND ANB DUE TO PLENTIFUL RAINFALL FROM
SATURDAY MORNING.
77/GLEASON
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...
CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...JEFFERSON...LEE...
MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...
TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 182330
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS SLOW TO CLEAR THIS MORNING HAS KEPT THE AIRMASS FROM
TOTALLY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. YOUR TYPICALLY CALM BEHIND THE
MCS.
THE TRICKY PART TO THE FORECAST WILL BE THE BOUNDARY AND CAN WE
GET THE REDEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. RIGHT NOW THE
RIDGE AXIS IS SITTING IN LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
WATCHING THE MOISTURE VIA IR SLIDING AROUND THE APEX. EXPECTED THE
MOISTURE TO BEGIN ITS SOUTHEAST SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF THIS DOES PAN OUT LIKE THE
SREF...NAM...GFS THEN WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER MCS LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING.
ALWAYS A TOUGH CALL WITH MCS AND DEVELOPMENT IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW...BUT IF IT DOES DEVELOP THEN WE WOULD LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL
FLOODING IN THE NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. WORST SCENARIO WOULD BE IF
WE WIND UP GETTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MCS AND
THEN THE MCS MOVES THROUGH LIKE LAST NIGHT.
CONTINUED HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN...BUT INCREASED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. BY MONDAY THE RIDGE SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP IN THE UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOW 90S. BEYOND MONDAY DID
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS NOT BEEN AS WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE STORMS THIS MORNING STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EVEN WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TO THE WEST OF MGM AND
TOI... HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF ANY PRECIP OVERNIGHT FROM ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT ANB... WHICH HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THERE IS SOME QUESTION
REGARDING MVFR VERSUS IFR CIGS... AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MVFR FOR
MOST SITES... WITH IFR INCLUDED ONLY AT EET BECAUSE IT TENDS TO GO
LOWER THAN OTHER LOCATIONS... AND ANB DUE TO PLENTIFUL RAINFALL FROM
SATURDAY MORNING.
77/GLEASON
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...
CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...JEFFERSON...LEE...
MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...
TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 182033
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS SLOW TO CLEAR THIS MORNING HAS KEPT THE AIRMASS FROM
TOTALLY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. YOUR TYPICALLY CALM BEHIND THE
MCS.
THE TRICKY PART TO THE FORECAST WILL BE THE BOUNDARY AND CAN WE
GET THE REDEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. RIGHT NOW THE
RIDGE AXIS IS SITTING IN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHCENTRAL ARKANSAS.
WATCHING THE MOISTURE VIA IR SLIDING AROUND THE APEX. EXPECTED THE
MOISTURE TO BEGIN ITS SOUTHEAST SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF THIS DOES PAN OUT LIKE THE
SREF...NAM...GFS THEN WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER MCS LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING.
ALWAYS A TOUGH CALL WITH MCS AND DEVELOPMENT IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW...BUT IF IT DOES DEVELOP THEN WE WOULD LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL
FLOODING IN THE NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. WORST SCENARIO WOULD BE IF
WE WIND UP GETTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MCS AND
THEN THE MCS MOVES THROUGH LIKE LAST NIGHT.
CONTINUED HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN...BUT INCREASED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. BY MONDAY THE RIDGE SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP IN THE UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOW 90S. BEYOND MONDAY DID
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE REGION IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES NEAR OR ABOVE
2000 J/KG AND PW VALUES OF OVER 1.5 INCHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER OF EVEN MORE CONCERN IS
SFC BOUNDARY FROM KJFX-KBHM-KMGM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF STATE...AND RIDGE TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THROUGH SUNSET DUE TO CUMULUS
INITIATION/PRECIP. IN ADDITION...BOUNDARY AND ONE MORE SHORT WAVE
OVERNIGHT WILL AID IN ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF STATE. REGARDLESS OF CONVECTION...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO VERY MOIST CONDITIONS AND STRATUS
FORMATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 15Z. AFTER 18Z...UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE WHICH WILL DIMINISH PRECIP CHANCES
DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEFKOVICH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 65 83 66 90 67 / 70 60 20 10 10
ANNISTON 65 83 65 89 67 / 70 70 30 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 66 85 66 89 67 / 50 30 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 67 87 66 89 66 / 20 10 10 10 10
CALERA 66 85 66 89 67 / 30 20 10 10 10
AUBURN 64 84 65 88 68 / 40 50 30 10 10
MONTGOMERY 66 87 66 91 67 / 20 20 10 10 10
TROY 65 87 66 91 66 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...
CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...JEFFERSON...LEE...
MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...
TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 181756
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1250 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ROUND ONE JUST ABOUT DONE ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA...BUT WHAT A FIRST ROUND. RADAR ESTIMATES OF 8 TO 9 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN CLAY COUNTY WITH REPORTS OF SERIOUS FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CLAY...TALLADEGA...AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. RIVER
FLOODING ALONG THE TALLAPOOSA RIVER NEAR WADLEY IS ALSO ONGOING
AND EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE STAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE
REFER TO LOCAL FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST ON THE RIVER
FLOODING.
SO FOR THE AFTERNOON...WATCHING THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT IS
CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND ARCHES SOUTH AND
EAST TO MONTGOMERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD.
QUESTIONS HERE WILL BE HOW WIDESPREAD WILL ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. YES THE EAST HAS BEEN WORKED OVER QUITE A BIT THIS
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY NOT REBOUND TO MUCH THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WEST IS A DIFFERENT STORY. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT AS
THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MIX OUT SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY REDEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLENTY OF JUICY AIR STILL IN
PLACE SO STORMS THAT CAN GET ORGANIZED WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER
AND MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. OTHER SMALLER SCALE BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO
MOVING NORTHWARD WITH ONE PARTICULAR ONE MOVING IN SW TUSCALOOSA
COUNTY AS OF 11AM.
LOOKING AT A FEW DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING CAPE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...PARTICULARLY FOR THE ALREADY IMPACTED AREAS. PWS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE 1.7. THIS PLACES IT IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
NORMAL PW FOR THIS DATE.
OVERALL LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO BE SLOW TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ONCE IT DOES...LOOK FOR THE ANOTHER SLOW
MOVING COLD POOL MCS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE 850 JET KICKING IN WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. UPDATES OUT
ALREADY.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE REGION IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES NEAR OR ABOVE
2000 J/KG AND PW VALUES OF OVER 1.5 INCHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER OF EVEN MORE CONCERN IS
SFC BOUNDARY FROM KJFX-KBHM-KMGM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF STATE...AND RIDGE TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THROUGH SUNSET DUE TO CUMULUS
INITIATION/PRECIP. IN ADDITION...BOUNDARY AND ONE MORE SHORT WAVE
OVERNIGHT WILL AID IN ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF STATE. REGARDLESS OF CONVECTION...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO VERY MOIST CONDITIONS AND STRATUS
FORMATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 15Z. AFTER 18Z...UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE WHICH WILL DIMINISH PRECIP CHANCES
DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEFKOVICH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 347 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
ZONE HAS RESULTED IN CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TRAINING OF
HEAVIER CELLS AS THEY MOVE WEST TO EAST COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ACTIVITY
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE EAST
BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PWS
OVER 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ALREADY SOAKED AREAS COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE DAY. WITH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...CAPE
VALUES WILL REACH 2000+ J/KG. WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS HIGH AS FRIDAY...LIMITING STORMS SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ORGANIZED ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH TODAY. SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. WILL CARRY
LIKELY POPS ACROSS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT
WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS BEFORE SUNRISE BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS.
EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE FOR SOME PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
THAT UPDATE.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE SHORT WAVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EASTWARD. A
STRONG IMPULSE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST
TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN TN AND DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EAST
ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL
MCS TRACK...A SHIFT FURTHER WEST WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER POPS AND
SEVERE WORDING IN THE HWO.
THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIMITING CONVECTION DESPITE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
MIDWEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND DRAGS A WEAK FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW
CONSERVATIVE INSTABILITIES AND WIND SHEAR VALUES AS THE PARENT
SURFACE LOW IS WELL TO OUR NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
THAT SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THROUGH NEXT WEEK...HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
14
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 78 65 84 66 90 / 60 70 70 20 10
ANNISTON 78 65 84 65 89 / 100 70 70 30 10
BIRMINGHAM 81 66 86 66 89 / 60 40 40 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 81 67 88 66 89 / 30 20 10 10 10
CALERA 81 66 86 66 89 / 60 30 20 10 10
AUBURN 78 64 85 65 88 / 100 30 50 30 10
MONTGOMERY 82 66 88 66 91 / 100 20 20 10 10
TROY 83 65 88 66 91 / 100 20 20 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...
CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...JEFFERSON...LEE...
MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...
TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 181637
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1137 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ROUND ONE JUST ABOUT DONE ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA...BUT WHAT A FIRST ROUND. RADAR ESTIMATES OF 8 TO 9 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN CLAY COUNTY WITH REPORTS OF SERIOUS FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CLAY...TALLADEGA...AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. RIVER
FLOODING ALONG THE TALLAPOOSA RIVER NEAR WADLEY IS ALSO ONGOING
AND EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE STAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE
REFER TO LOCAL FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST ON THE RIVER
FLOODING.
SO FOR THE AFTERNOON...WATCHING THE MAIN BOUNDARY THAT IS
CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND ARCHES SOUTH AND
EAST TO MONTGOMERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD.
QUESTIONS HERE WILL BE HOW WIDESPREAD WILL ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. YES THE EAST HAS BEEN WORKED OVER QUITE A BIT THIS
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY NOT REBOUND TO MUCH THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WEST IS A DIFFERENT STORY. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT AS
THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MIX OUT SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY REDEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLENTY OF JUICY AIR STILL IN
PLACE SO STORMS THAT CAN GET ORGANIZED WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER
AND MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. OTHER SMALLER SCALE BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO
MOVING NORTHWARD WITH ONE PARTICULAR ONE MOVING IN SW TUSCALOOSA
COUNTY AS OF 11AM.
LOOKING AT A FEW DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING CAPE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...PARTICULARLY FOR THE ALREADY IMPACTED AREAS. PWS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE 1.7. THIS PLACES IT IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
NORMAL PW FOR THIS DATE.
OVERALL LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO BE SLOW TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ONCE IT DOES...LOOK FOR THE ANOTHER SLOW
MOVING COLD POOL MCS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE 850 JET KICKING IN WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. UPDATES OUT
ALREADY.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
TOUGH FORECAST CONTINUES DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AND HAVE INCLUDED
SHRA VCTS AT MOST SITES FOR NOW. DUE TO LOW PREDICTABILITY WILL
JUST HAVE TO AMEND THRU THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE PERSISTENT
TSRA. HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY MOST
STORMS. THEREFORE VIS COULD QUICKLY BE REDUCED TO IFR OR LOWER.
CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE S/SW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
19
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 347 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
ZONE HAS RESULTED IN CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TRAINING OF
HEAVIER CELLS AS THEY MOVE WEST TO EAST COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ACTIVITY
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE EAST
BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PWS
OVER 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ALREADY SOAKED AREAS COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE DAY. WITH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...CAPE
VALUES WILL REACH 2000+ J/KG. WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS HIGH AS FRIDAY...LIMITING STORMS SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ORGANIZED ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH TODAY. SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. WILL CARRY
LIKELY POPS ACROSS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT
WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS BEFORE SUNRISE BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS.
EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE FOR SOME PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
THAT UPDATE.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE SHORT WAVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EASTWARD. A
STRONG IMPULSE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST
TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN TN AND DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EAST
ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL
MCS TRACK...A SHIFT FURTHER WEST WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER POPS AND
SEVERE WORDING IN THE HWO.
THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIMITING CONVECTION DESPITE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
MIDWEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND DRAGS A WEAK FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW
CONSERVATIVE INSTABILITIES AND WIND SHEAR VALUES AS THE PARENT
SURFACE LOW IS WELL TO OUR NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
THAT SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THROUGH NEXT WEEK...HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
14
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 78 65 84 66 90 / 60 70 70 20 10
ANNISTON 78 65 84 65 89 / 100 70 70 30 10
BIRMINGHAM 81 66 86 66 89 / 60 40 40 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 81 67 88 66 89 / 30 20 10 10 10
CALERA 81 66 86 66 89 / 60 30 20 10 10
AUBURN 78 64 85 65 88 / 100 30 50 30 10
MONTGOMERY 82 66 88 66 91 / 100 20 20 10 10
TROY 83 65 88 66 91 / 100 20 20 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...
CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...JEFFERSON...LEE...
MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...
TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 181249
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
749 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT AND FIRST PERIOD FORECASTS BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL CONTINUE PUSHING INTO GEORGIA THIS
MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS AREA...ACROSS SOUTHEAST CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE REMAINS DRAPED FROM NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT TODAY. DESPITE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE...BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY AS HEATING INCREASES. BIGGEST CONCERN
REMAINS LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWS OVER 1.5 INCHES. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE NORTHEAST CLOSELY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WHICH
OCCURRED OVERNIGHT.
14
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
TOUGH FORECAST CONTINUES DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AND HAVE INCLUDED
SHRA VCTS AT MOST SITES FOR NOW. DUE TO LOW PREDICTABILITY WILL
JUST HAVE TO AMEND THRU THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE PERSISTENT
TSRA. HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY MOST
STORMS. THEREFORE VIS COULD QUICKLY BE REDUCED TO IFR OR LOWER.
CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE S/SW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
19
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
ZONE HAS RESULTED IN CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TRAINING OF
HEAVIER CELLS AS THEY MOVE WEST TO EAST COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ACTIVITY
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE EAST
BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PWS
OVER 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ALREADY SOAKED AREAS COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE DAY. WITH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...CAPE
VALUES WILL REACH 2000+ J/KG. WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS HIGH AS FRIDAY...LIMITING STORMS SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ORGANIZED ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH TODAY. SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. WILL CARRY
LIKELY POPS ACROSS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT
WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS BEFORE SUNRISE BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS.
EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE FOR SOME PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
THAT UPDATE.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE SHORT WAVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EASTWARD.
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG IMPULSE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TN AND
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL MCS TRACK...A
SHIFT FURTHER WEST WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER POPS AND SEVERE WORDING
IN THE HWO.
THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIMITING CONVECTION DESPITE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
MIDWEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND DRAGS A WEAK FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW
CONSERVATIVE INSTABILITIES AND WIND SHEAR VALUES AS THE PARENT
SURFACE LOW IS WELL TO OUR NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
THAT SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THROUGH NEXT WEEK...HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
14
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 80 65 84 66 90 / 60 60 60 20 10
ANNISTON 81 65 84 65 89 / 70 60 60 30 10
BIRMINGHAM 80 66 86 66 89 / 60 30 30 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 84 67 88 66 89 / 60 20 10 10 10
CALERA 81 66 86 66 89 / 60 30 20 10 10
AUBURN 82 64 85 65 88 / 100 30 50 30 10
MONTGOMERY 88 66 88 66 91 / 60 20 20 10 10
TROY 83 65 88 66 91 / 60 20 20 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 181149
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
649 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
ZONE HAS RESULTED IN CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TRAINING OF
HEAVIER CELLS AS THEY MOVE WEST TO EAST COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ACTIVITY
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE EAST
BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PWS
OVER 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ALREADY SOAKED AREAS COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE DAY. WITH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...CAPE
VALUES WILL REACH 2000+ J/KG. WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS HIGH AS FRIDAY...LIMITING STORMS SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ORGANIZED ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH TODAY. SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. WILL CARRY
LIKELY POPS ACROSS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT
WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS BEFORE SUNRISE BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS.
EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE FOR SOME PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
THAT UPDATE.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE SHORT WAVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EASTWARD.
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG IMPULSE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TN AND
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL MCS TRACK...A
SHIFT FURTHER WEST WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER POPS AND SEVERE WORDING
IN THE HWO.
THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIMITING CONVECTION DESPITE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
MIDWEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND DRAGS A WEAK FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW
CONSERVATIVE INSTABILITIES AND WIND SHEAR VALUES AS THE PARENT
SURFACE LOW IS WELL TO OUR NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
THAT SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THROUGH NEXT WEEK...HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
14
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
TOUGH FORECAST CONTINUES DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AND HAVE INCLUDED
SHRA VCTS AT MOST SITES FOR NOW. DUE TO LOW PREDICTABILITY WILL
JUST HAVE TO AMEND THRU THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE PERSISTENT
TSRA. HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY MOST
STORMS. THEREFORE VIS COULD QUICKLY BE REDUCED TO IFR OR LOWER.
CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE S/SW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 80 65 84 66 90 / 60 60 60 20 10
ANNISTON 81 65 84 65 89 / 60 60 60 30 10
BIRMINGHAM 80 66 86 66 89 / 60 50 30 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 84 67 88 66 89 / 60 20 10 10 10
CALERA 81 66 86 66 89 / 60 30 20 10 10
AUBURN 82 64 85 65 88 / 60 30 50 30 10
MONTGOMERY 88 66 88 66 91 / 50 20 20 10 10
TROY 83 65 88 66 91 / 40 20 20 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 180847
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
347 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
ZONE HAS RESULTED IN CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TRAINING OF
HEAVIER CELLS AS THEY MOVE WEST TO EAST COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ACTIVITY
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE EAST
BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PWS
OVER 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ALREADY SOAKED AREAS COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE DAY. WITH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...CAPE
VALUES WILL REACH 2000+ J/KG. WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS HIGH AS FRIDAY...LIMITING STORMS SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ORGANIZED ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH TODAY. SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. WILL CARRY
LIKELY POPS ACROSS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT
WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS BEFORE SUNRISE BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS.
EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE FOR SOME PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
THAT UPDATE.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE SHORT WAVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EASTWARD.
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG IMPULSE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TN AND
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL MCS TRACK...A
SHIFT FURTHER WEST WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER POPS AND SEVERE WORDING
IN THE HWO.
THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIMITING CONVECTION DESPITE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
MIDWEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND DRAGS A WEAK FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW
CONSERVATIVE INSTABILITIES AND WIND SHEAR VALUES AS THE PARENT
SURFACE LOW IS WELL TO OUR NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
THAT SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THROUGH NEXT WEEK...HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
14
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE E/SE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THRU WHAT COULD BE A GOOD PORTION OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS THANKS TO A CONVERGENCE ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN MS JUST
WEST OF GOLDEN-TRIANGLE AIRPORT. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOVING
ESE BUT NOT CERTAIN WHETHER ANY REMNANTS OF THE CLUSTER WILL MAKE IT
TO THE MGM/TOI AREA...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF ANYTHING
FOR NOW. WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY THRU THE NIGHT AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.
CIGS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT DUE TO LIKELY FLUCTUATIONS IN
AND OUT OF TSTORMS. VIS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. AT THIS TIME WILL BRING ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR
DURING THE NIGHT. DUE TO CONTINUED SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AND NO ISENTROPIC LIFT
DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO MENTION WIDESPREAD FOG OR IFR CIGS.
HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF FOG THAT DEVELOP BETWEEN
SHOWERS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 80 65 84 66 90 / 60 60 60 20 10
ANNISTON 81 65 84 65 89 / 60 60 60 30 10
BIRMINGHAM 80 66 86 66 89 / 60 50 30 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 84 67 88 66 89 / 60 20 10 10 10
CALERA 81 66 86 66 89 / 60 30 20 10 10
AUBURN 82 64 85 65 88 / 60 30 50 30 10
MONTGOMERY 88 66 88 66 91 / 50 20 20 10 10
TROY 83 65 88 66 91 / 40 20 20 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 180546
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1246 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FINALLY DECREASED IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING...BUT SEVERAL STORMS WERE
ABLE TO ACHIEVE SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT MESOANALYSIS
SETUP...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHICH HELPED TO TRIGGER THE SEVERE
STORMS EARLIER THIS EVENING DUE TO OVER 2000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH
LI`S OVER -6 BASED ON RAP ANALYSIS. A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
EXISTS ACROSS THE STATE...WITH NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALABAMA...BUT LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS
ALONG THE STATE LINE. BASED ON THE REDUCED INSTABILITIES AND THE
LACK OF ANY UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ONGOING...WE SHOULD FINALLY
BEGIN TO SEE ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...WITH
SOME INSTABILITY AND LIFT STILL PRESENT...POP-UP SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE
TO THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING TO PUSH THROUGH.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PWATS ON THE 00Z
KBMX SOUNDING ARE INDICATING WELL OVER 1.50 INCHES. A FEW AREAS
THAT OBSERVED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS EVENING COULD ENCOUNTER
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN A FEW POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. UPDATES
ARE ALREADY OUT.
56/GDG
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE E/SE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THRU WHAT COULD BE A GOOD PORTION OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS THANKS TO A CONVERGENCE ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN MS JUST
WEST OF GOLDEN-TRIANGLE AIRPORT. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOVING
ESE BUT NOT CERTAIN WHETHER ANY REMNANTS OF THE CLUSTER WILL MAKE IT
TO THE MGM/TOI AREA...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF ANYTHING
FOR NOW. WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY THRU THE NIGHT AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.
CIGS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT DUE TO LIKELY FLUCTUATIONS IN
AND OUT OF TSTORMS. VIS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. AT THIS TIME WILL BRING ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR
DURING THE NIGHT. DUE TO CONTINUED SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AND NO ISENTROPIC LIFT
DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO MENTION WIDESPREAD FOG OR IFR CIGS.
HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF FOG THAT DEVELOP BETWEEN
SHOWERS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 79 63 83 63 84 / 60 60 60 10 10
ANNISTON 79 65 82 65 85 / 60 60 60 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 80 67 85 67 84 / 60 50 20 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 82 68 86 66 85 / 40 20 10 10 10
CALERA 80 66 84 66 84 / 50 40 20 10 10
AUBURN 80 66 84 67 85 / 50 50 40 10 10
MONTGOMERY 83 67 87 66 87 / 40 30 20 10 10
TROY 82 65 87 66 87 / 30 20 20 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 180352
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1052 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE AND LATE EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FINALLY DECREASED IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING...BUT SEVERAL STORMS WERE
ABLE TO ACHIEVE SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT MESOANALYSIS
SETUP...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHICH HELPED TO TRIGGER THE SEVERE
STORMS EARLIER THIS EVENING DUE TO OVER 2000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH
LI`S OVER -6 BASED ON RAP ANALYSIS. A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
EXISTS ACROSS THE STATE...WITH NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALABAMA...BUT LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS
ALONG THE STATE LINE. BASED ON THE REDUCED INSTABILITIES AND THE
LACK OF ANY UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ONGOING...WE SHOULD FINALLY
BEGIN TO SEE ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...WITH
SOME INSTABILITY AND LIFT STILL PRESENT...POP-UP SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE
TO THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING TO PUSH THROUGH.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PWATS ON THE 00Z
KBMX SOUNDING ARE INDICATING WELL OVER 1.50 INCHES. A FEW AREAS
THAT OBSERVED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS EVENING COULD ENCOUNTER
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN A FEW POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. UPDATES
ARE ALREADY OUT.
56/GDG
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE SPREAD OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
TSRA WAS ADDED TO THE SHORT TERM FOR KEET AND KBHM AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH WITH A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY HAS GONE
THROUGH KTCL...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE TSRA HAS MOVED THROUGH.
HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
FOR KANB...GENERALLY RAIN WILL BE EXPECTED WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH VCTS FOR THAT LOCATION
THROUGH 03Z. THE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS OF KMGM AND KTOI WILL HAVE
LESS OF A CHANCE OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT HAVE GONE WITH VCTS FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AT
KMGM AND NO MENTION OF VCTS OR TSRA FOR KTOI AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.
56/GDG
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 180001
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
701 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL PRODUCE STEADY RAINFALL WITH MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FILL IN AROUND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING...OR THE REMAINDER OF THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD.
TONIGHT...WEAKENING INTENSITY BUT SOME DECENT COVERAGE STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A SIMILAR SET UP FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL
SLIDE INTO EASTERN ALABAMA AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER
EASTWARD.
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EAST ALABAMA ON SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AREA WIDE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.
ANOTHER SYNOPTIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE RAIN SHIELD AREA TOMORROW AND
SUNDAY WITH WARMER HIGHS NEXT WEEK.
88
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE SPREAD OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
TSRA WAS ADDED TO THE SHORT TERM FOR KEET AND KBHM AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH WITH A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY HAS GONE
THROUGH KTCL...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE TSRA HAS MOVED THROUGH.
HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
FOR KANB...GENERALLY RAIN WILL BE EXPECTED WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH VCTS FOR THAT LOCATION
THROUGH 03Z. THE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS OF KMGM AND KTOI WILL HAVE
LESS OF A CHANCE OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT HAVE GONE WITH VCTS FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AT
KMGM AND NO MENTION OF VCTS OR TSRA FOR KTOI AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.
56/GDG
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 172007
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL PRODUCE STEADY RAINFALL WITH MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FILL IN AROUND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING...OR THE REMAINDER OF THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD.
TONIGHT...WEAKENING INTENSITY BUT SOME DECENT COVERAGE STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A SIMILAR SET UP FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL
SLIDE INTO EASTERN ALABAMA AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER
EASTWARD.
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EAST ALABAMA ON SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AREA WIDE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.
ANOTHER SYNOPTIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE RAIN SHIELD AREA TOMORROW AND
SUNDAY WITH WARMER HIGHS NEXT WEEK.
88
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE MID
SOUTH... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE STARTING AND ENDING TIMES FOR VCTS... NAMELY
PUSHING THE START TIME BACK A FEW HOURS FOR ANB... BHM... AND
EET. THIS ALSO REQUIRED A LATER ENDING TIME FOR VCTS AT SITES
WHERE IT IS INCLUDED. BOTH OF THESE DECISIONS WERE BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. KEPT MGM AND
TOI FREE FROM ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AS BEST CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF BOTH SITES.
DID NOT INCLUDE A PREVAILING TSRA LINE FOR ANY TAF SITE YET DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT AMENDMENTS THIS AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE TSRA AS PRECIP
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MISSISSIPPI AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN A FUEL ALT PREVAILING LINE AT ALL SITES
GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE GUIDANCE IN SHOWING THIS AND THE
FACT THAT THERE ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA THAT WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE IN OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY IFR YET.
77/GLEASON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 64 79 63 83 63 / 90 60 60 60 10
ANNISTON 65 79 65 82 65 / 80 60 60 60 10
BIRMINGHAM 68 80 67 85 67 / 80 60 50 40 10
TUSCALOOSA 68 82 68 86 66 / 60 40 20 10 10
CALERA 66 80 66 84 66 / 60 50 40 30 10
AUBURN 66 80 66 84 67 / 40 50 50 40 20
MONTGOMERY 65 83 67 87 66 / 30 40 30 20 10
TROY 64 82 65 87 66 / 20 30 20 20 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 171900
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
200 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW WAS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AS OF 2 PM CDT. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LOW WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING SINCE THIS
MORNING OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
ACCORDINGLY... THIS AREA HAS NOT WARMED UP MUCH TODAY... AND HAS A
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY AT THE MOMENT.
MUCH OF THE REST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF
1500 J/KG THANKS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW... WITH SOME POCKETS UP
TO 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT WITH A VEERING
WIND PROFILE (S AT SFC TO WNW AT 500 MB) IS SPREADING OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA PER LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KGWX AND
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP FROM AROUND 3 PM IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...
AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD TO THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY 6 OR 7 PM... BEFORE
DECREASING IN INTENSITY WITH THE SLOW LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE
FORECAST CAPE PROFILE IS NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL... AS
IT APPEARS FAIRLY LONG AND NARROW IN APPEARANCE... AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE 40 KT PRESENT ALOFT POSSIBLY
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND STRENGTHENING IN ANY ORGANIZED
STORM DUE TO THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. TORNADO THREAT TODAY
FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA APPEARS VERY LOW GIVEN WEAK 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR
AND SMALL 0-1 KM SRH.
THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WITH THIS SETUP ARE THE MARGINAL SHEAR
FROM 0-6 KM... WINDS WEAKENING ABOVE 6 KM... AND THE LACK OF A
CLEAR SURFACE FORCING MECHANISM. AN 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER ARKANSAS...
AND IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW. A
TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO NORTHWEST
ALABAMA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WARM AND
MOIST AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA. SOUTH OF THIS RAIN AREA
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE MORE
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. IN SUMMARY... ANTICIPATE
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BOTH POSSIBLE.
77/GLEASON
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE MID
SOUTH... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE STARTING AND ENDING TIMES FOR VCTS... NAMELY
PUSHING THE START TIME BACK A FEW HOURS FOR ANB... BHM... AND
EET. THIS ALSO REQUIRED A LATER ENDING TIME FOR VCTS AT SITES
WHERE IT IS INCLUDED. BOTH OF THESE DECISIONS WERE BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. KEPT MGM AND
TOI FREE FROM ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AS BEST CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF BOTH SITES.
DID NOT INCLUDE A PREVAILING TSRA LINE FOR ANY TAF SITE YET DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT AMENDMENTS THIS AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE TSRA AS PRECIP
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MISSISSIPPI AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN A FUEL ALT PREVAILING LINE AT ALL SITES
GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE GUIDANCE IN SHOWING THIS AND THE
FACT THAT THERE ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA THAT WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE IN OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY IFR YET.
77/GLEASON
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 171730
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MCS STILL SLOWLY TRYING TO WORK INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. TAKING A LOOK AT CLOUD TOPS...THEY HAVE REMAINED
FAIRLY COOL AS THE MASS WORKS IN ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME
WARMING ALOFT AS INDICATED WITH IR THIS MORNING. THIS IS EXPECTED
AS THE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THE
MCS IS GETTING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONT. THE MAIN COOLING OF
THE CLOUDS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MCS IN
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI.
GIVEN THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SEVERE WORDING IN THE
HWO AS ANY STORMS THAT GET GOING IN MS COULD SLIDE INTO THE
NORTHWEST...BUT GIVEN THE COOLER AIRMASS...SHOULD SEE THE
WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT A STRONG
STORM WILL DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE. UPDATES ARE OUT.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE MID
SOUTH... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE STARTING AND ENDING TIMES FOR VCTS... NAMELY
PUSHING THE START TIME BACK A FEW HOURS FOR ANB... BHM... AND
EET. THIS ALSO REQUIRED A LATER ENDING TIME FOR VCTS AT SITES
WHERE IT IS INCLUDED. BOTH OF THESE DECISIONS WERE BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. KEPT MGM AND
TOI FREE FROM ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AS BEST CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF BOTH SITES.
DID NOT INCLUDE A PREVAILING TSRA LINE FOR ANY TAF SITE YET DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT AMENDMENTS THIS AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE TSRA AS PRECIP
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MISSISSIPPI AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN A FUEL ALT PREVAILING LINE AT ALL SITES
GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE GUIDANCE IN SHOWING THIS AND THE
FACT THAT THERE ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA THAT WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE IN OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY IFR YET.
77/GLEASON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS
CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN OVER THE COMING DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. THERE REALLY IS NO WELL
DEFINED LOW PRESSURE TO SPEAK OF UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. A FEW
RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL RELATIVELY DRY OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT IS
IN THE PROCESSES OF SATURATING AS MID-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE
IN ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS MORNING. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND A
BIT OF A CAPPING INVERSION FROM WARM AIR ALOFT COULD KEEP THINGS
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TODAY
ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA WITH A BIT MORE CAPPING TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. MODELS VARY A GOOD BIT WITH
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE NAM IS ONLY SHOWING ABOUT 1000-1500
J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS WEST ALABAMA...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS WEST ALABAMA.
THE DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE DUE TO SMALL VARIABILITY IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. CURRENTLY LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WITH RATHER
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN PLACE AND EXPECT THIS
ADVECTION OF HIGH THETA E AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. 500
MB FLOW IS RATHER WEAK BUT THERE WILL BE SOME DIFFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR IS A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE LATEST MODELS
INDICATING AROUND 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO THE
VARIABLES MENTIONED ABOVE...SPC HAS INCLUDED AREAS NORTH AND WEST
OF A LIVINGSTON TO TUSCALOOSA TO JASPER LINE IN A SLIGHT RISK.
BASED ON THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
UNREASONABLE TO THINK THAT A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BE BECOME
SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA
WITH A RATHER SHARP CUT OFF IN PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE RATHER DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. EXPECT STORM INTENSITY WILL DECREASE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BETWEEN 3 TO 8 PM.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN RATHER SATURATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THANKS TO
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RATHER
IMPRESSIVE MOVING INTO THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE BEST FORCING OVER
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE WEAKER BUT STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE COULD BE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY
HIGH WITH THE WAVE WEAKENING AND LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER NORTHEASTERN
ALABAMA. THE GFS IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND LACK OF SURFACE FEATURE TO LIFT
PARCELS TO THEIR LFC WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO LIMIT STORM
SEVERITY AND EXPECT A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO COME TO AN END ON
MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL PUSH UP INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS AT THIS
TIME APPEAR TO KEEP THE FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE
WEEK.
05/MA
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 171528
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1028 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MCS STILL SLOWLY TRYING TO WORK INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. TAKING A LOOK AT CLOUD TOPS...THEY HAVE REMAINED
FAIRLY COOL AS THE MASS WORKS IN ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME
WARMING ALOFT AS INDICATED WITH IR THIS MORNING. THIS IS EXPECTED
AS THE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THE
MCS IS GETTING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FRONT. THE MAIN COOLING OF
THE CLOUDS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MCS IN
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI.
GIVEN THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SEVERE WORDING IN THE
HWO AS ANY STORMS THAT GET GOING IN MS COULD SLIDE INTO THE
NORTHWEST...BUT GIVEN THE COOLER AIRMASS...SHOULD SEE THE
WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT A STRONG
STORM WILL DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE. UPDATES ARE OUT.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ORGANIZED OR REMAIN SCATTERED. FOR
NOW WILL USE VCTS WORDING UNTIL TRENDS CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS CONVECTION DIMINISHES THIS
EVENING...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH.
WITH CONTINUE MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW NORTHWARD...EXPECT SLIGHTLY
LOWER CIGS AT MGM AND TOI OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARD
CONDITIONS LOWER THAN MVFR. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COULD PREVENT
THESE LOWER CIGS/VIS...AND WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW.
14
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS
CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN OVER THE COMING DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS
SHIFTED TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. THERE REALLY IS NO WELL
DEFINED LOW PRESSURE TO SPEAK OF UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. A FEW
RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL RELATIVELY DRY OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT IS
IN THE PROCESSES OF SATURATING AS MID-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE
IN ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS MORNING. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND A
BIT OF A CAPPING INVERSION FROM WARM AIR ALOFT COULD KEEP THINGS
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TODAY
ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA WITH A BIT MORE CAPPING TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. MODELS VARY A GOOD BIT WITH
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE NAM IS ONLY SHOWING ABOUT 1000-1500
J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS WEST ALABAMA...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS WEST ALABAMA.
THE DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE DUE TO SMALL VARIABILITY IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. CURRENTLY LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WITH RATHER
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN PLACE AND EXPECT THIS
ADVECTION OF HIGH THETA E AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. 500
MB FLOW IS RATHER WEAK BUT THERE WILL BE SOME DIFFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR IS A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE LATEST MODELS
INDICATING AROUND 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO THE
VARIABLES MENTIONED ABOVE...SPC HAS INCLUDED AREAS NORTH AND WEST
OF A LIVINGSTON TO TUSCALOOSA TO JASPER LINE IN A SLIGHT RISK.
BASED ON THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
UNREASONABLE TO THINK THAT A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BE BECOME
SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA
WITH A RATHER SHARP CUT OFF IN PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE RATHER DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. EXPECT STORM INTENSITY WILL DECREASE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BETWEEN 3 TO 8 PM.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN RATHER SATURATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THANKS TO
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RATHER
IMPRESSIVE MOVING INTO THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE BEST FORCING OVER
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE WEAKER BUT STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE COULD BE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY
HIGH WITH THE WAVE WEAKENING AND LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER NORTHEASTERN
ALABAMA. THE GFS IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND LACK OF SURFACE FEATURE TO LIFT
PARCELS TO THEIR LFC WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO LIMIT STORM
SEVERITY AND EXPECT A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO COME TO AN END ON
MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL PUSH UP INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS AT THIS
TIME APPEAR TO KEEP THE FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE
WEEK.
05/MA
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
| 
