Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KBMX 020007
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
607 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE AND AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT WAS JUST
ENTERING NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TOWARD JACKSON
MISSISSIPPI. THE LINE WAS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY AROUND 50 MPH.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WERE AROUND 50KTS WHILE LOW LEVEL
HELICITIES WERE AROUND 250. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WERE AROUND
500 IN A SMALL AREA APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...BUT
DECREASING. THEREFORE...STILL EXPECT A DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS
CAPE DECREASES FURTHER...BUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
SUMTER...GREENE...HALE...MARENGO...PERRY...BIBB AND DALLAS
COUNTIES THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...UPDATED FOR RADAR AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE STATE. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE AS FOR TIMING...SO WENT WITH A TIMING BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT AND EXPECTATIONS. ADDED IN A 2 HR WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AT ALL NORTHERN SITES. AS FOR THE SOUTH WENT JUST VCTS AS THE LINE
MOVES THROUGH SINCE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNWARD PROGRESSION.
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MVFR
CEILINGS. WE WILL NOT SEE CLEARING UNTIL AFTER 18Z...PROBABLY CLOSER
TO 21Z.

16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 346 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

MUCH OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A LULL IN THE RAINFALL
AS A BIT OF A DRY SLOT NOSES IN BEHIND AN AREA OF PREFRONTAL RAIN.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE
COLD FRONT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THOUGH IT MAY ONLY LAST AN
HOUR OR TWO AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION...THE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD BE SOLID ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 00-06Z TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS STRONG FORCING APPROACHES WITH A
DYNAMIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE NORTH AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO
AROUND -10C...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE BIG DEAL. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN QUICKLY
TO PRODUCE A COLD TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE INTERACTION OF SHORTWAVES
IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION TODAY...BUT
THIS COULD EASILY FLIP-FLOP AGAIN BEFORE THE SYSTEM ARRIVES. HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO
PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS SOUTHWARD
ON THURSDAY. HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
NORTHWEST CORNER IN CASE THIS OCCURS. WILL MONITOR FOR CHANGES IN
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES TO
SEE IF POPS NEED TO BE RAISED OR LOWERED.

DRY AND COOL WEATHER SHOULD TAKE OVER FOR FRIDAY WITH A BIT OF A
WARMING TREND FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     36  39  21  50  28 / 100  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    37  40  24  50  30 / 100  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  36  41  24  51  32 / 100  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  36  43  25  53  33 / 100  10   0   0   0
CALERA      37  42  26  52  33 / 100  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      43  44  27  53  34 / 100  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  42  46  27  54  34 / 100  10   0   0   0
TROY        44  46  25  55  33 / 100  10   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 020007
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
607 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE AND AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT WAS JUST
ENTERING NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TOWARD JACKSON
MISSISSIPPI. THE LINE WAS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY AROUND 50 MPH.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WERE AROUND 50KTS WHILE LOW LEVEL
HELICITIES WERE AROUND 250. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WERE AROUND
500 IN A SMALL AREA APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...BUT
DECREASING. THEREFORE...STILL EXPECT A DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS
CAPE DECREASES FURTHER...BUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
SUMTER...GREENE...HALE...MARENGO...PERRY...BIBB AND DALLAS
COUNTIES THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...UPDATED FOR RADAR AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE STATE. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE AS FOR TIMING...SO WENT WITH A TIMING BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT AND EXPECTATIONS. ADDED IN A 2 HR WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AT ALL NORTHERN SITES. AS FOR THE SOUTH WENT JUST VCTS AS THE LINE
MOVES THROUGH SINCE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNWARD PROGRESSION.
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MVFR
CEILINGS. WE WILL NOT SEE CLEARING UNTIL AFTER 18Z...PROBABLY CLOSER
TO 21Z.

16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 346 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

MUCH OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A LULL IN THE RAINFALL
AS A BIT OF A DRY SLOT NOSES IN BEHIND AN AREA OF PREFRONTAL RAIN.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE
COLD FRONT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THOUGH IT MAY ONLY LAST AN
HOUR OR TWO AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION...THE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD BE SOLID ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 00-06Z TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS STRONG FORCING APPROACHES WITH A
DYNAMIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE NORTH AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO
AROUND -10C...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE BIG DEAL. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN QUICKLY
TO PRODUCE A COLD TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE INTERACTION OF SHORTWAVES
IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION TODAY...BUT
THIS COULD EASILY FLIP-FLOP AGAIN BEFORE THE SYSTEM ARRIVES. HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO
PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS SOUTHWARD
ON THURSDAY. HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
NORTHWEST CORNER IN CASE THIS OCCURS. WILL MONITOR FOR CHANGES IN
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES TO
SEE IF POPS NEED TO BE RAISED OR LOWERED.

DRY AND COOL WEATHER SHOULD TAKE OVER FOR FRIDAY WITH A BIT OF A
WARMING TREND FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     36  39  21  50  28 / 100  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    37  40  24  50  30 / 100  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  36  41  24  51  32 / 100  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  36  43  25  53  33 / 100  10   0   0   0
CALERA      37  42  26  52  33 / 100  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      43  44  27  53  34 / 100  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  42  46  27  54  34 / 100  10   0   0   0
TROY        44  46  25  55  33 / 100  10   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 012146
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
346 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A LULL IN THE RAINFALL
AS A BIT OF A DRY SLOT NOSES IN BEHIND AN AREA OF PREFRONTAL RAIN.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE
COLD FRONT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THOUGH IT MAY ONLY LAST AN
HOUR OR TWO AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION...THE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD BE SOLID ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 00-06Z TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS STRONG FORCING APPROACHES WITH A
DYNAMIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS THE NORTH AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO
AROUND -10C...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE BIG DEAL. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN QUICKLY
TO PRODUCE A COLD TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE INTERACTION OF SHORTWAVES
IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION TODAY...BUT
THIS COULD EASILY FLIP-FLOP AGAIN BEFORE THE SYSTEM ARRIVES. HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO
PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS SOUTHWARD
ON THURSDAY. HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
NORTHWEST CORNER IN CASE THIS OCCURS. WILL MONITOR FOR CHANGES IN
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES TO
SEE IF POPS NEED TO BE RAISED OR LOWERED.

DRY AND COOL WEATHER SHOULD TAKE OVER FOR FRIDAY WITH A BIT OF A
WARMING TREND FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST THIS CYCLE WITH MOST TERMINALS IFR TO
MVFR. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EAST OF I-65. EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE OF RAIN WILL
COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
AFTER 23Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE. THERE COULD BE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH MVFR CEILINGS.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     36  39  21  50  28 / 100  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    37  40  24  50  30 / 100  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  36  41  24  51  32 / 100  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  36  43  25  53  33 / 100  10   0   0   0
CALERA      37  42  26  52  33 / 100  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      43  44  27  53  34 / 100  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  42  46  27  54  34 / 100  10   0   0   0
TROY        44  46  25  55  33 / 100  10   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/05








000
FXUS64 KBMX 011756
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH THIS MORNING. THIS
MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING INDICATED 0.43 INCHES OF PW WITH DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS. THEREFORE...IT WILL TAKE SOMETIME FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE AND FOR PRECIPITATION INTENSITY TO INCREASE.
LOOKING AT RADAR...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGERY IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND HAVE
REFLECTED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE DEWPOINTS COULD APPROACH THE 60 DEGREE
MARK BY 00Z ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
IF THIS HAPPENS...WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. FOR NOW...WILL FORGO MENTIONING
ANYTHING IN THE HWO BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MOISTURE
RETURN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FURTHER UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES TRENDS AS WELL.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST THIS CYCLE WITH MOST TERMINALS IFR TO
MVFR. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EAST OF I-65. EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD HELP IMPROVE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AFTER 23Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MVFR CEILINGS.

05/MA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 240 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON
THE MILD SIDE THIS MORNING. BHM STILL REPORTING 50 AT THIS HOUR
WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN UP THE AIRMASS OVER THE CWA TODAY. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE
WITH DEWPOINTS STILL AVERAGING IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE BUT STILL
THINK JUST ABOUT EVERYONE WILL MEASURE AT SOME POINT THIS
AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS BACK UP TO 90-100%. SURFACE
OBS IN MISSISSIPPI ARE REPORTING RAIN EVEN WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD BASE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN THE EVENING SO THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE TWO PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A POSSIBLE BREAK BETWEEN THE
FIRST WAVE AND THE FRONT. MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS IN.

PRETTY RAW DAY COMING UP MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. BREEZY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CLOUDS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S.

ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD STILL IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MOISTURE RETURN AND ARRIVAL
OF COLD AIR. ALL THE MODELS DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF AS A CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY OPENS UP OVER
WESTERN MEXICO AND SHIFTS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. THIS HAPPENS AS
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DELIVERS A DECENT COLD AIR MASS
SOUTHWARD. THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT PHASED UP (YET) BUT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR ANY SUBTLE CHANGES. THE GFS REMAINS VERY ROBUST
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER. THE CMC IS ALMOST THERE AND THE EURO HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE BIT IN THAT DIRECTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY EVENING BUT MAKE IT
SNOW INSTEAD OF SNOW/RAIN. COLD FRIDAY AND A LITTLE WARMER ON
SATURDAY.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 011756
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH THIS MORNING. THIS
MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING INDICATED 0.43 INCHES OF PW WITH DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS. THEREFORE...IT WILL TAKE SOMETIME FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE AND FOR PRECIPITATION INTENSITY TO INCREASE.
LOOKING AT RADAR...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGERY IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND HAVE
REFLECTED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE DEWPOINTS COULD APPROACH THE 60 DEGREE
MARK BY 00Z ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
IF THIS HAPPENS...WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. FOR NOW...WILL FORGO MENTIONING
ANYTHING IN THE HWO BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MOISTURE
RETURN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FURTHER UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES TRENDS AS WELL.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST THIS CYCLE WITH MOST TERMINALS IFR TO
MVFR. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EAST OF I-65. EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE OF
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD HELP IMPROVE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AFTER 23Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MVFR CEILINGS.

05/MA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 240 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON
THE MILD SIDE THIS MORNING. BHM STILL REPORTING 50 AT THIS HOUR
WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN UP THE AIRMASS OVER THE CWA TODAY. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE
WITH DEWPOINTS STILL AVERAGING IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE BUT STILL
THINK JUST ABOUT EVERYONE WILL MEASURE AT SOME POINT THIS
AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS BACK UP TO 90-100%. SURFACE
OBS IN MISSISSIPPI ARE REPORTING RAIN EVEN WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD BASE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN THE EVENING SO THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE TWO PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A POSSIBLE BREAK BETWEEN THE
FIRST WAVE AND THE FRONT. MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS IN.

PRETTY RAW DAY COMING UP MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. BREEZY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CLOUDS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S.

ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD STILL IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MOISTURE RETURN AND ARRIVAL
OF COLD AIR. ALL THE MODELS DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF AS A CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY OPENS UP OVER
WESTERN MEXICO AND SHIFTS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. THIS HAPPENS AS
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DELIVERS A DECENT COLD AIR MASS
SOUTHWARD. THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT PHASED UP (YET) BUT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR ANY SUBTLE CHANGES. THE GFS REMAINS VERY ROBUST
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER. THE CMC IS ALMOST THERE AND THE EURO HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE BIT IN THAT DIRECTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY EVENING BUT MAKE IT
SNOW INSTEAD OF SNOW/RAIN. COLD FRIDAY AND A LITTLE WARMER ON
SATURDAY.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 011625
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1025 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH THIS MORNING. THIS
MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING INDICATED 0.43 INCHES OF PW WITH DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS. THEREFORE...IT WILL TAKE SOMETIME FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE AND FOR PRECIPITATION INTENSITY TO INCREASE.
LOOKING AT RADAR...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGERY IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND HAVE
REFLECTED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE DEWPOINTS COULD APPROACH THE 60 DEGREE
MARK BY 00Z ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
IF THIS HAPPENS...WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. FOR NOW...WILL FORGO MENTIONING
ANYTHING IN THE HWO BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MOISTURE
RETURN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FURTHER UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES TRENDS AS WELL.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CURRENTLY BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE RAIN SHIELD GETS CLOSER AND MOISTURE
INCREASES IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FOR MOST AROUND MIDDAY AS THE RAIN SHIELD GETS CLOSER WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DUE TO THE RAIN. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. CIGS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR POST FRONT AS WE APPROACH
THE END OF OUR FORECAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

08/MK


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 240 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON
THE MILD SIDE THIS MORNING. BHM STILL REPORTING 50 AT THIS HOUR
WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN UP THE AIRMASS OVER THE CWA TODAY. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE
WITH DEWPOINTS STILL AVERAGING IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE BUT STILL
THINK JUST ABOUT EVERYONE WILL MEASURE AT SOME POINT THIS
AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS BACK UP TO 90-100%. SURFACE
OBS IN MISSISSIPPI ARE REPORTING RAIN EVEN WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD BASE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN THE EVENING SO THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE TWO PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A POSSIBLE BREAK BETWEEN THE
FIRST WAVE AND THE FRONT. MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS IN.

PRETTY RAW DAY COMING UP MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. BREEZY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CLOUDS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S.

ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD STILL IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MOISTURE RETURN AND ARRIVAL
OF COLD AIR. ALL THE MODELS DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF AS A CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY OPENS UP OVER
WESTERN MEXICO AND SHIFTS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. THIS HAPPENS AS
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DELIVERS A DECENT COLD AIR MASS
SOUTHWARD. THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT PHASED UP (YET) BUT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR ANY SUBTLE CHANGES. THE GFS REMAINS VERY ROBUST
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER. THE CMC IS ALMOST THERE AND THE EURO HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE BIT IN THAT DIRECTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY EVENING BUT MAKE IT
SNOW INSTEAD OF SNOW/RAIN. COLD FRIDAY AND A LITTLE WARMER ON
SATURDAY.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 011625
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1025 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH THIS MORNING. THIS
MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING INDICATED 0.43 INCHES OF PW WITH DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS. THEREFORE...IT WILL TAKE SOMETIME FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE AND FOR PRECIPITATION INTENSITY TO INCREASE.
LOOKING AT RADAR...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGERY IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND HAVE
REFLECTED THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE DEWPOINTS COULD APPROACH THE 60 DEGREE
MARK BY 00Z ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
IF THIS HAPPENS...WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. FOR NOW...WILL FORGO MENTIONING
ANYTHING IN THE HWO BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MOISTURE
RETURN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FURTHER UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES TRENDS AS WELL.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CURRENTLY BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE RAIN SHIELD GETS CLOSER AND MOISTURE
INCREASES IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FOR MOST AROUND MIDDAY AS THE RAIN SHIELD GETS CLOSER WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DUE TO THE RAIN. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. CIGS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR POST FRONT AS WE APPROACH
THE END OF OUR FORECAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

08/MK


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 240 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON
THE MILD SIDE THIS MORNING. BHM STILL REPORTING 50 AT THIS HOUR
WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN UP THE AIRMASS OVER THE CWA TODAY. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE
WITH DEWPOINTS STILL AVERAGING IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE BUT STILL
THINK JUST ABOUT EVERYONE WILL MEASURE AT SOME POINT THIS
AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS BACK UP TO 90-100%. SURFACE
OBS IN MISSISSIPPI ARE REPORTING RAIN EVEN WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD BASE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN THE EVENING SO THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE TWO PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A POSSIBLE BREAK BETWEEN THE
FIRST WAVE AND THE FRONT. MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS IN.

PRETTY RAW DAY COMING UP MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. BREEZY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CLOUDS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S.

ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD STILL IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MOISTURE RETURN AND ARRIVAL
OF COLD AIR. ALL THE MODELS DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF AS A CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY OPENS UP OVER
WESTERN MEXICO AND SHIFTS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. THIS HAPPENS AS
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DELIVERS A DECENT COLD AIR MASS
SOUTHWARD. THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT PHASED UP (YET) BUT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR ANY SUBTLE CHANGES. THE GFS REMAINS VERY ROBUST
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER. THE CMC IS ALMOST THERE AND THE EURO HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE BIT IN THAT DIRECTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY EVENING BUT MAKE IT
SNOW INSTEAD OF SNOW/RAIN. COLD FRIDAY AND A LITTLE WARMER ON
SATURDAY.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 011212 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
612 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON
THE MILD SIDE THIS MORNING. BHM STILL REPORTING 50 AT THIS HOUR
WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN UP THE AIR MASS OVER THE CWA TODAY. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE
WITH DEW POINTS STILL AVERAGING IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE BUT STILL
THINK JUST ABOUT EVERYONE WILL MEASURE AT SOME POINT THIS
AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS BACK UP TO 90-100%. SURFACE
OBS IN MISSISSIPPI ARE REPORTING RAIN EVEN WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD BASE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN THE EVENING SO THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE TWO PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A POSSIBLE BREAK BETWEEN THE
FIRST WAVE AND THE FRONT. MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS IN.

PRETTY RAW DAY COMING UP MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. BREEZY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CLOUDS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S.

ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD STILL IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MOISTURE RETURN AND ARRIVAL
OF COLD AIR. ALL THE MODELS DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF AS A CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY OPENS UP OVER
WESTERN MEXICO AND SHIFTS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. THIS HAPPENS AS
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DELIVERS A DECENT COLD AIR MASS
SOUTHWARD. THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT PHASED UP (YET) BUT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR ANY SUBTLE CHANGES. THE GFS REMAINS VERY ROBUST
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER. THE CMC IS ALMOST THERE AND THE EURO HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE BIT IN THAT DIRECTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY EVENING BUT MAKE IT
SNOW INSTEAD OF SNOW/RAIN. COLD FRIDAY AND A LITTLE WARMER ON
SATURDAY.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CURRENTLY BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE RAIN SHIELD GETS CLOSER AND MOISTURE
INCREASES IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FOR MOST AROUND MIDDAY AS THE RAIN SHIELD GETS CLOSER WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DUE TO THE RAIN. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. CIGS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR POST FRONT AS WE APPROACH
THE END OF OUR FORECAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     56  38  40  23  49 / 100 100  10   0   0
ANNISTON    59  39  42  24  50 / 100 100  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  59  36  42  24  51 / 100 100  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  61  37  43  26  51 / 100  90  10   0   0
CALERA      59  38  43  27  50 / 100 100  10   0   0
AUBURN      61  42  47  27  52 / 100 100  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  64  44  48  27  54 / 100 100  10   0   0
TROY        64  45  50  27  54 /  90 100  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

88/08







000
FXUS64 KBMX 010840
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
240 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON
THE MILD SIDE THIS MORNING. BHM STILL REPORTING 50 AT THIS HOUR
WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN UP THE AIRMASS OVER THE CWA TODAY. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE
WITH DEWPOINTS STILL AVERAGING IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE BUT STILL
THINK JUST ABOUT EVERYONE WILL MEASURE AT SOME POINT THIS
AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS BACK UP TO 90-100%. SURFACE
OBS IN MISSISSIPPI ARE REPORTING RAIN EVEN WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD BASE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN THE EVENING SO THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE TWO PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A POSSIBLE BREAK BETWEEN THE
FIRST WAVE AND THE FRONT. MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS IN.

PRETTY RAW DAY COMING UP MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. BREEZY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CLOUDS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S.

ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD STILL IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MOISTURE RETURN AND ARRIVAL
OF COLD AIR. ALL THE MODELS DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF AS A CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY OPENS UP OVER
WESTERN MEXICO AND SHIFTS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. THIS HAPPENS AS
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DELIVERS A DECENT COLD AIR MASS
SOUTHWARD. THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT PHASED UP (YET) BUT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR ANY SUBTLE CHANGES. THE GFS REMAINS VERY ROBUST
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER. THE CMC IS ALMOST THERE AND THE EURO HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE BIT IN THAT DIRECTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY EVENING BUT MAKE IT
SNOW INSTEAD OF SNOW/RAIN. COLD FRIDAY AND A LITTLE WARMER ON
SATURDAY.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTH WILL BE EVEN LOWER AND NEAR MVFR BY 14Z. RAIN MOVES IN AFTER
18Z...ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER CEILINGS...IFR. MODELS ARE EVEN
ANTICIPATING LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO JUST
THE IFR FOR NOW WITH 2SM AND RAIN. ONCE THE IFR CEILINGS WORK IN
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM AFTER 18Z AS
WELL...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE.

16


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     56  38  40  23  49 / 100 100  10   0   0
ANNISTON    59  39  42  24  50 / 100 100  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  59  36  42  24  51 / 100 100  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  61  37  43  26  51 / 100  90  10   0   0
CALERA      59  38  43  27  50 / 100 100  10   0   0
AUBURN      61  42  47  27  52 / 100 100  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  64  44  48  27  54 / 100 100  10   0   0
TROY        64  45  50  27  54 /  90 100  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 010531
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1131 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A TALE OF TWO AIRMASSES RIGHT NOW. DEWPOINTS IN THE NORTH AND EAST
ARE STILL IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...WHILE AREAS IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE MORE MOIST AIR SLIDE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT FALL THAT MUCH FURTHER DOWN. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
UPWARD IN THE WEST. IT IS WARMER RIGHT NOW IN HALEYVILLE IN THE
NORTHWEST AS IT IS IN EUFAULA IN THE SOUTHEAST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTH WILL BE EVEN LOWER AND NEAR MVFR BY 14Z. RAIN MOVES IN AFTER
18Z...ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER CEILINGS...IFR. MODELS ARE EVEN
ANTICIPATING LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO JUST
THE IFR FOR NOW WITH 2SM AND RAIN. ONCE THE IFR CEILINGS WORK IN
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM AFTER 18Z AS
WELL...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     35  57  36  41  22 /   0  80  90  10   0
ANNISTON    38  58  37  43  24 /   0  80  90  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  40  59  36  42  25 /   0  80  90  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  45  61  38  44  25 /  10  80  90  10   0
CALERA      41  59  37  44  27 /   0  80  90  10   0
AUBURN      41  60  42  47  27 /   0  80  90  10   0
MONTGOMERY  40  65  43  49  27 /   0  80  90  10   0
TROY        38  64  44  51  26 /   0  80  90  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 010531
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1131 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A TALE OF TWO AIRMASSES RIGHT NOW. DEWPOINTS IN THE NORTH AND EAST
ARE STILL IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...WHILE AREAS IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE MORE MOIST AIR SLIDE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT FALL THAT MUCH FURTHER DOWN. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
UPWARD IN THE WEST. IT IS WARMER RIGHT NOW IN HALEYVILLE IN THE
NORTHWEST AS IT IS IN EUFAULA IN THE SOUTHEAST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTH WILL BE EVEN LOWER AND NEAR MVFR BY 14Z. RAIN MOVES IN AFTER
18Z...ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER CEILINGS...IFR. MODELS ARE EVEN
ANTICIPATING LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO JUST
THE IFR FOR NOW WITH 2SM AND RAIN. ONCE THE IFR CEILINGS WORK IN
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM AFTER 18Z AS
WELL...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     35  57  36  41  22 /   0  80  90  10   0
ANNISTON    38  58  37  43  24 /   0  80  90  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  40  59  36  42  25 /   0  80  90  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  45  61  38  44  25 /  10  80  90  10   0
CALERA      41  59  37  44  27 /   0  80  90  10   0
AUBURN      41  60  42  47  27 /   0  80  90  10   0
MONTGOMERY  40  65  43  49  27 /   0  80  90  10   0
TROY        38  64  44  51  26 /   0  80  90  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 312323
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
523 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...INDICATIVE OF
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM IN THIS CASE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 10S AND 20S.
THAT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS A
TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE PLAINS. FEEL PRETTY GOOD ABOUT MOST
AREAS SEEING RAIN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SOME HI-RES
MODELS ARE A BIT SKIMPY ON THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN THE
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ANTECEDENT
DRYNESS COULD LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT UNTIL STRONG FORCING
ARRIVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT. HAVE BACKED OFF TO
80 PERCENT POP AREAWIDE FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND KEPT 80-90 POP
FOR TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP SOME AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE UPPER 30S. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A COLD
MORNING ON TUESDAY WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE.

A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BEGIN TO EJECT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GFS
AND GEM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...SHOWING FAIRLY DECENT HEIGHT
FALLS IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS THE TWO SHORTWAVES INTERACT.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE TO NO
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND NO
PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A TENDENCY TO
ERR ON THE SIDE OF BEING TOO SUPPRESSED THIS FAR OUT...SO FOR NOW
THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WETTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION.
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
AS WELL...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TIMING OF THE COLD PUSH TO
SEE IF THIS ENDS UP BEING A SNOW THREAT. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO
INCLUDE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VERY DRY CONDITIONS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THE MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.
SOME LOWER CLOUDS WILL WORK IN OVERNIGHT WITH EVEN LOWER CLOUDS
CLOSER TO 12Z ACROSS THE NORTH. CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WILL BE EVEN
LOWER AND NEAR MVFR BY 14Z. RAIN MOVES IN AFTER 18Z...ALONG WITH
MUCH LOWER CEILINGS...IFR. MODELS ARE EVEN ANTICIPATING LIFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO JUST THE IFR FOR NOW
WITH 2SM AND RAIN. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM AFTER 18Z AS
WELL...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     35  57  36  41  22 /   0  80  90  10   0
ANNISTON    38  58  37  43  24 /   0  80  90  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  40  59  36  42  25 /   0  80  90  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  42  61  38  44  25 /  10  80  90  10   0
CALERA      41  59  37  44  27 /   0  80  90  10   0
AUBURN      41  60  42  47  27 /   0  80  90  10   0
MONTGOMERY  40  65  43  49  27 /   0  80  90  10   0
TROY        38  64  44  51  26 /   0  80  90  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 312323
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
523 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...INDICATIVE OF
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM IN THIS CASE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 10S AND 20S.
THAT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS A
TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE PLAINS. FEEL PRETTY GOOD ABOUT MOST
AREAS SEEING RAIN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SOME HI-RES
MODELS ARE A BIT SKIMPY ON THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN THE
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ANTECEDENT
DRYNESS COULD LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT UNTIL STRONG FORCING
ARRIVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT. HAVE BACKED OFF TO
80 PERCENT POP AREAWIDE FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND KEPT 80-90 POP
FOR TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP SOME AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE UPPER 30S. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A COLD
MORNING ON TUESDAY WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE.

A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BEGIN TO EJECT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GFS
AND GEM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...SHOWING FAIRLY DECENT HEIGHT
FALLS IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS THE TWO SHORTWAVES INTERACT.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE TO NO
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND NO
PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A TENDENCY TO
ERR ON THE SIDE OF BEING TOO SUPPRESSED THIS FAR OUT...SO FOR NOW
THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WETTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION.
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
AS WELL...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TIMING OF THE COLD PUSH TO
SEE IF THIS ENDS UP BEING A SNOW THREAT. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO
INCLUDE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VERY DRY CONDITIONS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THE MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.
SOME LOWER CLOUDS WILL WORK IN OVERNIGHT WITH EVEN LOWER CLOUDS
CLOSER TO 12Z ACROSS THE NORTH. CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WILL BE EVEN
LOWER AND NEAR MVFR BY 14Z. RAIN MOVES IN AFTER 18Z...ALONG WITH
MUCH LOWER CEILINGS...IFR. MODELS ARE EVEN ANTICIPATING LIFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO JUST THE IFR FOR NOW
WITH 2SM AND RAIN. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM AFTER 18Z AS
WELL...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     35  57  36  41  22 /   0  80  90  10   0
ANNISTON    38  58  37  43  24 /   0  80  90  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  40  59  36  42  25 /   0  80  90  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  42  61  38  44  25 /  10  80  90  10   0
CALERA      41  59  37  44  27 /   0  80  90  10   0
AUBURN      41  60  42  47  27 /   0  80  90  10   0
MONTGOMERY  40  65  43  49  27 /   0  80  90  10   0
TROY        38  64  44  51  26 /   0  80  90  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 312122
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
322 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...INDICATIVE OF
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM IN THIS CASE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 10S AND 20S.
THAT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS A
TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE PLAINS. FEEL PRETTY GOOD ABOUT MOST
AREAS SEEING RAIN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SOME HI-RES
MODELS ARE A BIT SKIMPY ON THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN THE
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ANTECEDENT
DRYNESS COULD LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT UNTIL STRONG FORCING
ARRIVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT. HAVE BACKED OFF TO
80 PERCENT POP AREAWIDE FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND KEPT 80-90 POP
FOR TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP SOME AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE UPPER 30S. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A COLD
MORNING ON TUESDAY WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE.

A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BEGIN TO EJECT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GFS
AND GEM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...SHOWING FAIRLY DECENT HEIGHT
FALLS IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS THE TWO SHORTWAVES INTERACT.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE TO NO
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND NO
PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A TENDENCY TO
ERR ON THE SIDE OF BEING TOO SUPPRESSED THIS FAR OUT...SO FOR NOW
THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WETTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION.
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
AS WELL...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TIMING OF THE COLD PUSH TO
SEE IF THIS ENDS UP BEING A SNOW THREAT. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO
INCLUDE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 15 OR SO HOURS. COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES DO SUGGEST
THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. I`VE INCLUDED A LOWER CEILING AT MGM AND TOI TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. I DO BELIEVE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL NOT
START TO AFFECT TERMINALS NORTH OF THOSE TWO UNTIL RIGHT AT THE
END OF THIS 24 HOUR FORECAST. THERE`S LIKELY GOING TO BE SOME
LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS WELL. WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME
IF CONDITIONS WENT FROM VFR TO IFR RATHER QUICKLY AROUND 18Z
SUNDAY...AS THE RAIN SHIELD FURTHER INVADES CENTRAL ALABAMA.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     35  57  36  41  22 /   0  80  90  10   0
ANNISTON    38  58  37  43  24 /   0  80  90  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  40  59  36  42  25 /   0  80  90  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  42  61  38  44  25 /  10  80  90  10   0
CALERA      41  59  37  44  27 /   0  80  90  10   0
AUBURN      41  60  42  47  27 /   0  80  90  10   0
MONTGOMERY  40  65  43  49  27 /   0  80  90  10   0
TROY        38  64  44  51  26 /   0  80  90  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/61






000
FXUS64 KBMX 312122
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
322 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...INDICATIVE OF
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM IN THIS CASE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 10S AND 20S.
THAT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS A
TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE PLAINS. FEEL PRETTY GOOD ABOUT MOST
AREAS SEEING RAIN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SOME HI-RES
MODELS ARE A BIT SKIMPY ON THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN THE
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ANTECEDENT
DRYNESS COULD LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT UNTIL STRONG FORCING
ARRIVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT. HAVE BACKED OFF TO
80 PERCENT POP AREAWIDE FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND KEPT 80-90 POP
FOR TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP SOME AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE UPPER 30S. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A COLD
MORNING ON TUESDAY WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE.

A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BEGIN TO EJECT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GFS
AND GEM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...SHOWING FAIRLY DECENT HEIGHT
FALLS IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS THE TWO SHORTWAVES INTERACT.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE TO NO
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND NO
PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A TENDENCY TO
ERR ON THE SIDE OF BEING TOO SUPPRESSED THIS FAR OUT...SO FOR NOW
THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WETTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION.
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
AS WELL...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TIMING OF THE COLD PUSH TO
SEE IF THIS ENDS UP BEING A SNOW THREAT. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO
INCLUDE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 15 OR SO HOURS. COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES DO SUGGEST
THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. I`VE INCLUDED A LOWER CEILING AT MGM AND TOI TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. I DO BELIEVE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL NOT
START TO AFFECT TERMINALS NORTH OF THOSE TWO UNTIL RIGHT AT THE
END OF THIS 24 HOUR FORECAST. THERE`S LIKELY GOING TO BE SOME
LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS WELL. WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME
IF CONDITIONS WENT FROM VFR TO IFR RATHER QUICKLY AROUND 18Z
SUNDAY...AS THE RAIN SHIELD FURTHER INVADES CENTRAL ALABAMA.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     35  57  36  41  22 /   0  80  90  10   0
ANNISTON    38  58  37  43  24 /   0  80  90  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  40  59  36  42  25 /   0  80  90  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  42  61  38  44  25 /  10  80  90  10   0
CALERA      41  59  37  44  27 /   0  80  90  10   0
AUBURN      41  60  42  47  27 /   0  80  90  10   0
MONTGOMERY  40  65  43  49  27 /   0  80  90  10   0
TROY        38  64  44  51  26 /   0  80  90  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/61







000
FXUS64 KBMX 311740
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN ELEMENTS OF THE CURRENT FORECAST ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.
MORNING SOUNDING AT BMX SHOWED A VERY DRY AIR MASS FROM THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THE WAY UP TO AROUND 550 MB. THAT VERY DRY AIR
HAS STARTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 20S AND LOWER. THIS DEWPOINT DROP HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
HANDLED POORLY BY THE MODELS THIS WINTER...AND WILL DO MY BEST TO
MAKE THE NECESSARY CORRECTIONS TO THE DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. NO OTHER BIG CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 15 OR SO HOURS. COMPUTER MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES DO SUGGEST
THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. I`VE INCLUDED A LOWER CEILING AT MGM AND TOI TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. I DO BELIEVE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL NOT
START TO AFFECT TERMINALS NORTH OF THOSE TWO UNTIL RIGHT AT THE
END OF THIS 24 HOUR FORECAST. THERE`S LIKELY GOING TO BE SOME
LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS WELL. WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME
IF CONDITIONS WENT FROM VFR TO IFR RATHER QUICKLY AROUND 18Z
SUNDAY...AS THE RAIN SHIELD FURTHER INVADES CENTRAL ALABAMA.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 311618
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1018 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN ELEMENTS OF THE CURRENT FORECAST ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.
MORNING SOUNDING AT BMX SHOWED A VERY DRY AIR MASS FROM THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THE WAY UP TO AROUND 550 MB. THAT VERY DRY AIR
HAS STARTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 20S AND LOWER. THIS DEWPOINT DROP HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
HANDLED POORLY BY THE MODELS THIS WINTER...AND WILL DO MY BEST TO
MAKE THE NECESSARY CORRECTIONS TO THE DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. NO OTHER BIG CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL
STREAM INTO ALABAMA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AND NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. LOWER
CIGS AND MORE EXTENSIVE MOISTURE...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS MOVES
INTO THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

08/MK


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 311618
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1018 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN ELEMENTS OF THE CURRENT FORECAST ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.
MORNING SOUNDING AT BMX SHOWED A VERY DRY AIR MASS FROM THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ALL THE WAY UP TO AROUND 550 MB. THAT VERY DRY AIR
HAS STARTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 20S AND LOWER. THIS DEWPOINT DROP HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
HANDLED POORLY BY THE MODELS THIS WINTER...AND WILL DO MY BEST TO
MAKE THE NECESSARY CORRECTIONS TO THE DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. NO OTHER BIG CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL
STREAM INTO ALABAMA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AND NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. LOWER
CIGS AND MORE EXTENSIVE MOISTURE...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS MOVES
INTO THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

08/MK


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 311157 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
557 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT A NICE DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S. THE
SYSTEM APPROACHING SUNDAY HAS SLOWED DOWN JUST A LITTLE BIT AND
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE RAINFALL TO MORE OF A LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON ARRIVAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY
AND BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP JUST A LITTLE BIT AS WELL. RAISED POPS
BOTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT IS PRETTY MUCH A SURE BET AT THIS
POINT. RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 50 SOUTH.

DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT WITH A PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM
CANADA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A COLD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SKIRTS
THE GULF COAST. NOT NEARLY AS CONFIDENT IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. STILL A GOOD BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A MORE PROLONGED EVENT ENDING UP WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY EVENING. LEANED TOWARDS THE EURO/CMC SOLUTIONS FOR NOW AS
THEY ARE VERY MUCH IN-LINE WITH EACH OTHER. LOOKS LIKE THE REALLY
FRIGID AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM STAYS NORTH FOR NOW.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL
STREAM INTO ALABAMA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AND NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. LOWER
CIGS AND MORE EXTENSIVE MOISTURE...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS MOVES
INTO THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     55  34  56  38  40 /   0   0 100  90  10
ANNISTON    56  37  57  40  42 /   0   0 100  90  10
BIRMINGHAM  57  39  58  37  42 /   0   0 100  90  10
TUSCALOOSA  58  41  59  38  44 /   0  10 100  90   0
CALERA      58  40  58  39  43 /   0   0 100  90  10
AUBURN      57  41  59  42  47 /   0   0  90  90  10
MONTGOMERY  61  39  62  44  47 /   0   0  90  90  10
TROY        59  37  63  44  49 /   0   0  90  90  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

88/08





000
FXUS64 KBMX 311157 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
557 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT A NICE DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S. THE
SYSTEM APPROACHING SUNDAY HAS SLOWED DOWN JUST A LITTLE BIT AND
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE RAINFALL TO MORE OF A LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON ARRIVAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY
AND BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP JUST A LITTLE BIT AS WELL. RAISED POPS
BOTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT IS PRETTY MUCH A SURE BET AT THIS
POINT. RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 50 SOUTH.

DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT WITH A PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM
CANADA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A COLD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SKIRTS
THE GULF COAST. NOT NEARLY AS CONFIDENT IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. STILL A GOOD BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A MORE PROLONGED EVENT ENDING UP WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY EVENING. LEANED TOWARDS THE EURO/CMC SOLUTIONS FOR NOW AS
THEY ARE VERY MUCH IN-LINE WITH EACH OTHER. LOOKS LIKE THE REALLY
FRIGID AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM STAYS NORTH FOR NOW.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL
STREAM INTO ALABAMA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AND NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. LOWER
CIGS AND MORE EXTENSIVE MOISTURE...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS MOVES
INTO THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     55  34  56  38  40 /   0   0 100  90  10
ANNISTON    56  37  57  40  42 /   0   0 100  90  10
BIRMINGHAM  57  39  58  37  42 /   0   0 100  90  10
TUSCALOOSA  58  41  59  38  44 /   0  10 100  90   0
CALERA      58  40  58  39  43 /   0   0 100  90  10
AUBURN      57  41  59  42  47 /   0   0  90  90  10
MONTGOMERY  61  39  62  44  47 /   0   0  90  90  10
TROY        59  37  63  44  49 /   0   0  90  90  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

88/08






000
FXUS64 KBMX 310912
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
312 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT A NICE DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S. THE
SYSTEM APPROACHING SUNDAY HAS SLOWED DOWN JUST A LITTLE BIT AND
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE RAINFALL TO MORE OF A LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON ARRIVAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY
AND BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP JUST A LITTLE BIT AS WELL. RAISED POPS
BOTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT IS PRETTY MUCH A SURE BET AT THIS
POINT. RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 50 SOUTH.

DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT WITH A PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM
CANADA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A COLD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SKIRTS
THE GULF COAST. NOT NEARLY AS CONFIDENT IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. STILL A GOOD BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A MORE PROLONGED EVENT ENDING UP WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY EVENING. LEANED TOWARDS THE EURO/CMC SOLUTIONS FOR NOW AS
THEY ARE VERY MUCH IN-LINE WITH EACH OTHER. LOOKS LIKE THE REALLY
FRIGID AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM STAYS NORTH FOR NOW.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER THE 12Z TIME FRAME WILL EVENTUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 7 KTS.

16


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     54  34  56  38  40 /   0   0 100  90  10
ANNISTON    56  37  57  40  42 /   0   0 100  90  10
BIRMINGHAM  57  39  58  37  42 /   0   0 100  90  10
TUSCALOOSA  59  41  59  38  44 /   0  10 100  90   0
CALERA      57  40  58  39  43 /   0   0 100  90  10
AUBURN      56  41  59  42  47 /   0   0  90  90  10
MONTGOMERY  59  39  62  44  47 /   0   0  90  90  10
TROY        59  37  63  44  49 /   0   0  90  90  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 310912
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
312 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT A NICE DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S. THE
SYSTEM APPROACHING SUNDAY HAS SLOWED DOWN JUST A LITTLE BIT AND
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE RAINFALL TO MORE OF A LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON ARRIVAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY
AND BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP JUST A LITTLE BIT AS WELL. RAISED POPS
BOTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT IS PRETTY MUCH A SURE BET AT THIS
POINT. RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 50 SOUTH.

DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT WITH A PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM
CANADA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A COLD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW SKIRTS
THE GULF COAST. NOT NEARLY AS CONFIDENT IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. STILL A GOOD BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A MORE PROLONGED EVENT ENDING UP WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY EVENING. LEANED TOWARDS THE EURO/CMC SOLUTIONS FOR NOW AS
THEY ARE VERY MUCH IN-LINE WITH EACH OTHER. LOOKS LIKE THE REALLY
FRIGID AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM STAYS NORTH FOR NOW.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER THE 12Z TIME FRAME WILL EVENTUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 7 KTS.

16


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     54  34  56  38  40 /   0   0 100  90  10
ANNISTON    56  37  57  40  42 /   0   0 100  90  10
BIRMINGHAM  57  39  58  37  42 /   0   0 100  90  10
TUSCALOOSA  59  41  59  38  44 /   0  10 100  90   0
CALERA      57  40  58  39  43 /   0   0 100  90  10
AUBURN      56  41  59  42  47 /   0   0  90  90  10
MONTGOMERY  59  39  62  44  47 /   0   0  90  90  10
TROY        59  37  63  44  49 /   0   0  90  90  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 310515
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1115 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING OFF NICELY THIS EVENING AND ONLY NEEDING
TO TO DO SOME HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS. TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 20S AREA WIDE. THERE STILL WILL BE SOME CLOUDS THAT WORK INTO
THE NORTHWEST AFTER 3 AM...BUT LOWS SHOULD ALREADY HAVE DROPPED IN
THESE LOCATIONS. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER THE 12Z TIME FRAME WILL EVENTUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 7 KTS.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 326 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE WITH DRY
WEATHER AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY. A QUICK
TRANSITION WILL TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HAVE RAISED POPS CLOSER TO 100 FOR SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT WITH A PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM
CANADA. THIS MAY LEAD TO A COLD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS
A WEAK SURFACE LOW SKIRTS THE GULF COAST. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW. COLDER WEATHER MAY MOVE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KBMX 310515
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1115 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING OFF NICELY THIS EVENING AND ONLY NEEDING
TO TO DO SOME HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS. TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 20S AREA WIDE. THERE STILL WILL BE SOME CLOUDS THAT WORK INTO
THE NORTHWEST AFTER 3 AM...BUT LOWS SHOULD ALREADY HAVE DROPPED IN
THESE LOCATIONS. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER THE 12Z TIME FRAME WILL EVENTUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 7 KTS.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 326 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE WITH DRY
WEATHER AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY. A QUICK
TRANSITION WILL TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HAVE RAISED POPS CLOSER TO 100 FOR SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT WITH A PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM
CANADA. THIS MAY LEAD TO A COLD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS
A WEAK SURFACE LOW SKIRTS THE GULF COAST. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW. COLDER WEATHER MAY MOVE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KBMX 310254
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
854 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING OFF NICELY THIS EVENING AND ONLY NEEDING
TO TO DO SOME HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS. TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 20S AREA WIDE. THERE STILL WILL BE SOME CLOUDS THAT WORK INTO
THE NORTHWEST AFTER 3 AM...BUT LOWS SHOULD ALREADY HAVE DROPPED IN
THESE LOCATIONS. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXPECT DIMINISHING/LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT VEERING TOWARDS THE EAST
BY MORNING. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER THE 12Z TIME FRAME WILL
EVENTUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW. WINDS
SHIFT TO MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 7 KTS.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 326 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE WITH DRY
WEATHER AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY. A QUICK
TRANSITION WILL TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HAVE RAISED POPS CLOSER TO 100 FOR SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT WITH A PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM
CANADA. THIS MAY LEAD TO A COLD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS
A WEAK SURFACE LOW SKIRTS THE GULF COAST. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW. COLDER WEATHER MAY MOVE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     22  53  34  54  37 /   0   0  10  90  80
ANNISTON    25  56  37  56  39 /   0   0  10  90  80
BIRMINGHAM  26  56  39  55  37 /   0   0  10  90  80
TUSCALOOSA  27  57  41  57  38 /   0   0  20  90  80
CALERA      28  56  40  56  38 /   0   0  10  90  80
AUBURN      29  55  41  57  42 /   0   0  10  80  80
MONTGOMERY  28  59  39  60  44 /   0   0  10  80  80
TROY        27  59  37  61  45 /   0   0  10  80  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 310254
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
854 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING OFF NICELY THIS EVENING AND ONLY NEEDING
TO TO DO SOME HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS. TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 20S AREA WIDE. THERE STILL WILL BE SOME CLOUDS THAT WORK INTO
THE NORTHWEST AFTER 3 AM...BUT LOWS SHOULD ALREADY HAVE DROPPED IN
THESE LOCATIONS. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXPECT DIMINISHING/LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT VEERING TOWARDS THE EAST
BY MORNING. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER THE 12Z TIME FRAME WILL
EVENTUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW. WINDS
SHIFT TO MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 7 KTS.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 326 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE WITH DRY
WEATHER AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY. A QUICK
TRANSITION WILL TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HAVE RAISED POPS CLOSER TO 100 FOR SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT WITH A PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM
CANADA. THIS MAY LEAD TO A COLD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS
A WEAK SURFACE LOW SKIRTS THE GULF COAST. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW. COLDER WEATHER MAY MOVE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     22  53  34  54  37 /   0   0  10  90  80
ANNISTON    25  56  37  56  39 /   0   0  10  90  80
BIRMINGHAM  26  56  39  55  37 /   0   0  10  90  80
TUSCALOOSA  27  57  41  57  38 /   0   0  20  90  80
CALERA      28  56  40  56  38 /   0   0  10  90  80
AUBURN      29  55  41  57  42 /   0   0  10  80  80
MONTGOMERY  28  59  39  60  44 /   0   0  10  80  80
TROY        27  59  37  61  45 /   0   0  10  80  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 302325
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
525 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COOL CONDITIONS HAVE MOVED IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED
THROUGH LAST NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT.

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE WITH DRY
WEATHER AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY. A QUICK
TRANSITION WILL TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HAVE RAISED POPS CLOSER TO 100 FOR SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT WITH A PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM
CANADA. THIS MAY LEAD TO A COLD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS
A WEAK SURFACE LOW SKIRTS THE GULF COAST. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW. COLDER WEATHER MAY MOVE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXPECT DIMINISHING/LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT VEERING TOWARDS THE EAST
BY MORNING. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER THE 12Z TIME FRAME WILL
EVENTUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW. WINDS
SHIFT TO MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 7 KTS.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 302325
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
525 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COOL CONDITIONS HAVE MOVED IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED
THROUGH LAST NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT.

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE WITH DRY
WEATHER AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY. A QUICK
TRANSITION WILL TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HAVE RAISED POPS CLOSER TO 100 FOR SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT WITH A PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM
CANADA. THIS MAY LEAD TO A COLD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS
A WEAK SURFACE LOW SKIRTS THE GULF COAST. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW. COLDER WEATHER MAY MOVE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXPECT DIMINISHING/LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT VEERING TOWARDS THE EAST
BY MORNING. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER THE 12Z TIME FRAME WILL
EVENTUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW. WINDS
SHIFT TO MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 7 KTS.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 302126
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
326 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

COOL CONDITIONS HAVE MOVED IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED
THROUGH LAST NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT.

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE WITH DRY
WEATHER AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY. A QUICK
TRANSITION WILL TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HAVE RAISED POPS CLOSER TO 100 FOR SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT WITH A PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM
CANADA. THIS MAY LEAD TO A COLD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS
A WEAK SURFACE LOW SKIRTS THE GULF COAST. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW. COLDER WEATHER MAY MOVE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ENTIRE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING CLOUDS DISSIPATED ON SCHEDULE...YIELDING TO CLEAR
SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION WILL
BE THE NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OF AROUND 10-12KTS WITH
GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 20KTS FOR MAINLY BHM/ANB UNTIL WE BEGIN TO
DECOUPLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...EXPECT
DIMINISHING/LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT VEERING TOWARDS THE EAST BY
MORNING. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS 12Z TIME FRAME WILL EVENTUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     22  53  34  54  37 /   0   0  10  90  80
ANNISTON    25  56  37  56  39 /   0   0  10  90  80
BIRMINGHAM  26  56  39  55  37 /   0   0  10  90  80
TUSCALOOSA  27  57  41  57  38 /   0   0  20  90  80
CALERA      28  56  40  56  38 /   0   0  10  90  80
AUBURN      29  55  41  57  42 /   0   0  10  80  80
MONTGOMERY  28  59  39  60  44 /   0   0  10  80  80
TROY        27  59  37  61  45 /   0   0  10  80  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/02






000
FXUS64 KBMX 302126
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
326 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

COOL CONDITIONS HAVE MOVED IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED
THROUGH LAST NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT.

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE WITH DRY
WEATHER AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY. A QUICK
TRANSITION WILL TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HAVE RAISED POPS CLOSER TO 100 FOR SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT WITH A PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM
CANADA. THIS MAY LEAD TO A COLD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS
A WEAK SURFACE LOW SKIRTS THE GULF COAST. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW. COLDER WEATHER MAY MOVE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ENTIRE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING CLOUDS DISSIPATED ON SCHEDULE...YIELDING TO CLEAR
SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION WILL
BE THE NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OF AROUND 10-12KTS WITH
GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 20KTS FOR MAINLY BHM/ANB UNTIL WE BEGIN TO
DECOUPLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...EXPECT
DIMINISHING/LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT VEERING TOWARDS THE EAST BY
MORNING. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS 12Z TIME FRAME WILL EVENTUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     22  53  34  54  37 /   0   0  10  90  80
ANNISTON    25  56  37  56  39 /   0   0  10  90  80
BIRMINGHAM  26  56  39  55  37 /   0   0  10  90  80
TUSCALOOSA  27  57  41  57  38 /   0   0  20  90  80
CALERA      28  56  40  56  38 /   0   0  10  90  80
AUBURN      29  55  41  57  42 /   0   0  10  80  80
MONTGOMERY  28  59  39  60  44 /   0   0  10  80  80
TROY        27  59  37  61  45 /   0   0  10  80  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/02







000
FXUS64 KBMX 301752
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1152 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ENTIRE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING CLOUDS DISSIPATED ON SCHEDULE...YIELDING TO CLEAR
SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION WILL
BE THE NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OF AROUND 10-12KTS WITH
GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 20KTS FOR MAINLY BHM/ANB UNTIL WE BEGIN TO
DECOUPLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...EXPECT
DIMINISHING/LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT VEERING TOWARDS THE EAST BY
MORNING. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS 12Z TIME FRAME WILL EVENTUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 538 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR TODAY. SOME POST-FRONTAL LOW
CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA...BUT THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ERODING DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND EXPECT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
BY LATE MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES UPPER
LOW ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SPILL EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA...AND
THE CIRRUS WILL THICKEN LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS ALABAMA.
THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BELOW 700MB THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD HOLD THE RAIN OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. RAIN
SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE RAIN MIXES WITH LIGHT SNOW...BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER EARLY MONDAY ACROSS EAST ALABAMA...
BUT SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR. DESPITE SUNSHINE...STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON
TUESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE STILL
STRUGGLING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW. THE
REMNANTS OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THE ECMWF MODEL IS NOW SLOWING DOWN
THE SYSTEM AND SHOWING THE BULK OF THE RAIN AFFECTING ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE RAIN ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE TIME OF
PRECIPITATION.

58/ROSE

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 301752
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1152 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ENTIRE PERIOD.

EARLY MORNING CLOUDS DISSIPATED ON SCHEDULE...YIELDING TO CLEAR
SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION WILL
BE THE NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OF AROUND 10-12KTS WITH
GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 20KTS FOR MAINLY BHM/ANB UNTIL WE BEGIN TO
DECOUPLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...EXPECT
DIMINISHING/LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT VEERING TOWARDS THE EAST BY
MORNING. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS 12Z TIME FRAME WILL EVENTUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 538 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR TODAY. SOME POST-FRONTAL LOW
CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA...BUT THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ERODING DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND EXPECT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
BY LATE MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES UPPER
LOW ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SPILL EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA...AND
THE CIRRUS WILL THICKEN LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS ALABAMA.
THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BELOW 700MB THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD HOLD THE RAIN OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. RAIN
SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE RAIN MIXES WITH LIGHT SNOW...BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER EARLY MONDAY ACROSS EAST ALABAMA...
BUT SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR. DESPITE SUNSHINE...STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON
TUESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE STILL
STRUGGLING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW. THE
REMNANTS OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THE ECMWF MODEL IS NOW SLOWING DOWN
THE SYSTEM AND SHOWING THE BULK OF THE RAIN AFFECTING ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE RAIN ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE TIME OF
PRECIPITATION.

58/ROSE

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 301138
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
538 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR TODAY. SOME POST-FRONTAL LOW
CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA...BUT THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ERODING DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND EXPECT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
BY LATE MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES UPPER
LOW ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SPILL EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA...AND
THE CIRRUS WILL THICKEN LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS ALABAMA.
THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BELOW 700MB THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD HOLD THE RAIN OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. RAIN
SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE RAIN MIXES WITH LIGHT SNOW...BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER EARLY MONDAY ACROSS EAST ALABAMA...
BUT SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR. DESPITE SUNSHINE...STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON
TUESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE STILL
STRUGGLING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW. THE
REMNANTS OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THE ECMWF MODEL IS NOW SLOWING DOWN
THE SYSTEM AND SHOWING THE BULK OF THE RAIN AFFECTING ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE RAIN ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE TIME OF
PRECIPITATION.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A FEW POST FRONTAL CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 AND 3500 FEET THIS MORNING.
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
ONLY CIRRUS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY FROM
THE NORTH AROUND 10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 16 TO 20 KTS.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 301138
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
538 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR TODAY. SOME POST-FRONTAL LOW
CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA...BUT THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ERODING DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND EXPECT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
BY LATE MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES UPPER
LOW ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SPILL EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA...AND
THE CIRRUS WILL THICKEN LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS ALABAMA.
THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BELOW 700MB THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD HOLD THE RAIN OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. RAIN
SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE RAIN MIXES WITH LIGHT SNOW...BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER EARLY MONDAY ACROSS EAST ALABAMA...
BUT SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR. DESPITE SUNSHINE...STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON
TUESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE STILL
STRUGGLING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW. THE
REMNANTS OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THE ECMWF MODEL IS NOW SLOWING DOWN
THE SYSTEM AND SHOWING THE BULK OF THE RAIN AFFECTING ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE RAIN ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE TIME OF
PRECIPITATION.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A FEW POST FRONTAL CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 AND 3500 FEET THIS MORNING.
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
ONLY CIRRUS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY FROM
THE NORTH AROUND 10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 16 TO 20 KTS.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 300948
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
348 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR TODAY. SOME POST-FRONTAL LOW
CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA...BUT THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ERODING DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND EXPECT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
BY LATE MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES UPPER
LOW ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SPILL EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA...AND
THE CIRRUS WILL THICKEN LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS ALABAMA.
THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BELOW 700MB THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD HOLD THE RAIN OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. RAIN
SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE RAIN MIXES WITH LIGHT SNOW...BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER EARLY MONDAY ACROSS EAST ALABAMA...
BUT SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR. DESPITE SUNSHINE...STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON
TUESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE STILL
STRUGGLING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW. THE
REMNANTS OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THE ECMWF MODEL IS NOW SLOWING DOWN
THE SYSTEM AND SHOWING THE BULK OF THE RAIN AFFECTING ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE RAIN ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE TIME OF
PRECIPITATION.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. EXPECT THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS KMGM AND KTOI OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH CEILINGS RIGHT AROUND 3 KFT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE PESSIMISTIC
WITH MVFR AT ALL OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY SUNRISE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10 KTS THROUGH 00Z.

05/MA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  24  52  34  52 /   0   0   0  10  70
ANNISTON    49  26  55  37  54 /   0   0   0  10  60
BIRMINGHAM  49  27  55  39  53 /   0   0   0  10  70
TUSCALOOSA  52  27  56  41  55 /   0   0   0  20  70
CALERA      51  29  55  40  54 /   0   0   0  10  70
AUBURN      52  29  55  41  56 /   0   0   0  10  60
MONTGOMERY  56  29  59  39  58 /   0   0   0  10  60
TROY        55  28  59  37  60 /   0   0   0  10  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 300948
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
348 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR TODAY. SOME POST-FRONTAL LOW
CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA...BUT THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ERODING DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND EXPECT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
BY LATE MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES UPPER
LOW ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SPILL EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA...AND
THE CIRRUS WILL THICKEN LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS ALABAMA.
THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BELOW 700MB THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD HOLD THE RAIN OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. RAIN
SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE RAIN MIXES WITH LIGHT SNOW...BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER EARLY MONDAY ACROSS EAST ALABAMA...
BUT SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR. DESPITE SUNSHINE...STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON
TUESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE STILL
STRUGGLING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW. THE
REMNANTS OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THE ECMWF MODEL IS NOW SLOWING DOWN
THE SYSTEM AND SHOWING THE BULK OF THE RAIN AFFECTING ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE RAIN ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE TIME OF
PRECIPITATION.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. EXPECT THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS KMGM AND KTOI OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH CEILINGS RIGHT AROUND 3 KFT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE PESSIMISTIC
WITH MVFR AT ALL OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY SUNRISE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10 KTS THROUGH 00Z.

05/MA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  24  52  34  52 /   0   0   0  10  70
ANNISTON    49  26  55  37  54 /   0   0   0  10  60
BIRMINGHAM  49  27  55  39  53 /   0   0   0  10  70
TUSCALOOSA  52  27  56  41  55 /   0   0   0  20  70
CALERA      51  29  55  40  54 /   0   0   0  10  70
AUBURN      52  29  55  41  56 /   0   0   0  10  60
MONTGOMERY  56  29  59  39  58 /   0   0   0  10  60
TROY        55  28  59  37  60 /   0   0   0  10  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 300529
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1129 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT FROM NEAR ROME GEORGIA TO DEMOPOLIS LATE THIS EVENING.
SOME GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT WILL LAST ONLY A FEW
HOURS AND GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH ZONE. LOCAL AREA
RADARS HAVE BEEN VERY QUIET TONIGHT WITH HARDLY ANY ECHOES. 00Z
SOUNDINGS WERE RATHER DRY...EVEN UPSTREAM. THEREFORE...REMOVED
MENTION OF POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OTHER MAIN CHANGE
WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS WITH SUCH A
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. EXPECT THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS KMGM AND KTOI OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH CEILINGS RIGHT AROUND 3 KFT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE PESSIMISTIC
WITH MVFR AT ALL OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY SUNRISE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10 KTS THROUGH 00Z.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 300529
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1129 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT FROM NEAR ROME GEORGIA TO DEMOPOLIS LATE THIS EVENING.
SOME GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT WILL LAST ONLY A FEW
HOURS AND GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH ZONE. LOCAL AREA
RADARS HAVE BEEN VERY QUIET TONIGHT WITH HARDLY ANY ECHOES. 00Z
SOUNDINGS WERE RATHER DRY...EVEN UPSTREAM. THEREFORE...REMOVED
MENTION OF POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OTHER MAIN CHANGE
WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS WITH SUCH A
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. EXPECT THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS KMGM AND KTOI OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH CEILINGS RIGHT AROUND 3 KFT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE PESSIMISTIC
WITH MVFR AT ALL OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY SUNRISE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10 KTS THROUGH 00Z.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 300435
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1035 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT FROM NEAR ROME GEORGIA TO DEMOPOLIS LATE THIS EVENING.
SOME GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT WILL LAST ONLY A FEW
HOURS AND GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH ZONE. LOCAL AREA
RADARS HAVE BEEN VERY QUIET TONIGHT WITH HARDLY ANY ECHOES. 00Z
SOUNDINGS WERE RATHER DRY...EVEN UPSTREAM. THEREFORE...REMOVED
MENTION OF POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OTHER MAIN CHANGE
WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS WITH SUCH A
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BROUGHT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IN JUST BEHIND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW VFR
CEILINGS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE FRONT HAS
ENTERED FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE OVERNIGHT. LOCAL AREA RADARS HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RETURNS AND HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE TIME
BEING. CLOUDS WILL LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT TO MVFR LEVELS 015-025
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE MAIN SYSTEM LIFTS OUT ALOFT AND EXPECT THE CEILINGS
RESTRICTIONS TO BE GONE BEFORE 12Z.

75


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 256 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED...BUT A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING.

WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS FOR SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MONDAY MAY REMAIN QUITE CHILLY AS STRONG
COLD ADVECTION OCCURS...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS COULD REMAIN BELOW
40F IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC WAVE IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A COLD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW SKIRTS THE GULF COAST. MUCH COLDER WEATHER MAY
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     34  49  24  52  34 /  10   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    36  51  26  55  37 /  10   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  36  51  27  55  39 /  10   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  38  54  27  56  41 /  10   0   0   0  20
CALERA      37  53  29  55  40 /  10   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      38  53  29  55  41 /  10   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  40  58  29  59  39 /  10   0   0   0  10
TROY        40  57  28  59  37 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 300435
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1035 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT FROM NEAR ROME GEORGIA TO DEMOPOLIS LATE THIS EVENING.
SOME GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT WILL LAST ONLY A FEW
HOURS AND GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH ZONE. LOCAL AREA
RADARS HAVE BEEN VERY QUIET TONIGHT WITH HARDLY ANY ECHOES. 00Z
SOUNDINGS WERE RATHER DRY...EVEN UPSTREAM. THEREFORE...REMOVED
MENTION OF POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OTHER MAIN CHANGE
WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS WITH SUCH A
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BROUGHT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IN JUST BEHIND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW VFR
CEILINGS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE FRONT HAS
ENTERED FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE OVERNIGHT. LOCAL AREA RADARS HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RETURNS AND HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE TIME
BEING. CLOUDS WILL LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT TO MVFR LEVELS 015-025
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE MAIN SYSTEM LIFTS OUT ALOFT AND EXPECT THE CEILINGS
RESTRICTIONS TO BE GONE BEFORE 12Z.

75


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 256 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST. MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED...BUT A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING.

WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS FOR SUNDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MONDAY MAY REMAIN QUITE CHILLY AS STRONG
COLD ADVECTION OCCURS...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS COULD REMAIN BELOW
40F IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC WAVE IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A COLD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW SKIRTS THE GULF COAST. MUCH COLDER WEATHER MAY
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     34  49  24  52  34 /  10   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    36  51  26  55  37 /  10   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  36  51  27  55  39 /  10   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  38  54  27  56  41 /  10   0   0   0  20
CALERA      37  53  29  55  40 /  10   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      38  53  29  55  41 /  10   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  40  58  29  59  39 /  10   0   0   0  10
TROY        40  57  28  59  37 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities