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000
FXUS64 KBMX 291917
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
217 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. BACK
TO THE WEST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXIST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
ACROSS ALABAMA. THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST IS BRINGING IN
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS MORNINGS 12Z
BMX SOUNDING OBSERVED 1.67 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS CHANGED DRASTICALLY OVER THE
LAST 24-36 HRS. CURRENT MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES AROUND 2000-3000
J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WITH DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS. ESTIMATED SATELLITE PW VALUES ARE 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES APPROACHING VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES. OVERALL...COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT BUT
MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN THE HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY DIURNAL
INFLUENCES BUT EXPECT MORE ORGANIZED LIFT WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT
SUPPORTING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE AROUND THE AL/FL LINE. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 60 KTS WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW OCCURRING TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE LOCATION OF THE JET WILL
ALSO PUT CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET A
FAVORED AREA TO SUPPORT UPWARD MOTION. PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE 1.7-1.9 INCH RANGE. THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS POPS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE CLOSED LOW EVENTUALLY TRACKS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH POPS DECREASING
TOWARDS SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPECT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 80S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO FALL OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FURTHEST TO THE WEST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF DIFFERENCE IN TIMING WITH THE GEM
BEING THE QUICKEST. EXPECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE MOISTURE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE
WITH 20-30 POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. IF MODEL TRENDS GO FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE REMNANTS
OF ERIKA...EXPECT POPS WOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK...MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SITUATION AND
WILL SEE POPS INCREASE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE MESSY TODAY WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AREAWIDE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN BETWEEN HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT EXPECT RAPID REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND
VARIABLE GUSTS OF WIND DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS MOVING OVER
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. THE ONLY TERMINAL THAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE KTCL...BUT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL OBSERVE
MULTIPLE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR NOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED
EVENTUALLY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

56/GDG


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AND END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN TO START THE WORK WEEK BUT RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLD VALUES. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  83  67  86  68 /  60  50  20  20  10
ANNISTON    68  84  67  88  68 /  60  50  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  69  85  68  88  70 /  50  40  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  69  88  69  91  71 /  30  20  10  10  10
CALERA      69  85  69  88  70 /  60  30  20  10  10
AUBURN      68  86  69  87  71 /  60  40  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  69  90  70  93  72 /  60  30  20  20  10
TROY        68  90  70  91  71 /  60  30  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291917
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
217 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. BACK
TO THE WEST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXIST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
ACROSS ALABAMA. THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST IS BRINGING IN
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS MORNINGS 12Z
BMX SOUNDING OBSERVED 1.67 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS CHANGED DRASTICALLY OVER THE
LAST 24-36 HRS. CURRENT MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES AROUND 2000-3000
J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WITH DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS. ESTIMATED SATELLITE PW VALUES ARE 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES APPROACHING VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES. OVERALL...COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT BUT
MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME AREAS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN THE HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY DIURNAL
INFLUENCES BUT EXPECT MORE ORGANIZED LIFT WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT
SUPPORTING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE AROUND THE AL/FL LINE. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 60 KTS WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW OCCURRING TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE LOCATION OF THE JET WILL
ALSO PUT CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET A
FAVORED AREA TO SUPPORT UPWARD MOTION. PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE 1.7-1.9 INCH RANGE. THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS POPS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE CLOSED LOW EVENTUALLY TRACKS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH POPS DECREASING
TOWARDS SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPECT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE THAT CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 80S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO FALL OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FURTHEST TO THE WEST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF DIFFERENCE IN TIMING WITH THE GEM
BEING THE QUICKEST. EXPECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE MOISTURE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE
WITH 20-30 POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. IF MODEL TRENDS GO FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE REMNANTS
OF ERIKA...EXPECT POPS WOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK...MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SITUATION AND
WILL SEE POPS INCREASE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE MESSY TODAY WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AREAWIDE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN BETWEEN HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT EXPECT RAPID REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND
VARIABLE GUSTS OF WIND DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS MOVING OVER
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. THE ONLY TERMINAL THAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE KTCL...BUT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL OBSERVE
MULTIPLE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR NOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED
EVENTUALLY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

56/GDG


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AND END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN TO START THE WORK WEEK BUT RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLD VALUES. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  83  67  86  68 /  60  50  20  20  10
ANNISTON    68  84  67  88  68 /  60  50  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  69  85  68  88  70 /  50  40  20  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  69  88  69  91  71 /  30  20  10  10  10
CALERA      69  85  69  88  70 /  60  30  20  10  10
AUBURN      68  86  69  87  71 /  60  40  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  69  90  70  93  72 /  60  30  20  20  10
TROY        68  90  70  91  71 /  60  30  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 291800
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR MIDDAY FORECAST UPDATE AND 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FOR FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY DRY
SO FAR. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE RISEN RAPIDLY FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...WITH PWATS JUMPING FROM 0.98 TO 1.67 INCHES ON THIS
MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE GOOD WITH
LOTS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE...BUT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AREN`T SO STRONG. THEREFORE...MOST STORMS TODAY SHOULD
BEHAVE FOR THE MOST PART. CAN`T RULE OUT A GUSTY WIND REPORT OR
TWO...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE WITH
ON AND OFF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIXED IN.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE MESSY TODAY WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AREAWIDE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN BETWEEN HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT EXPECT RAPID REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND
VARIABLE GUSTS OF WIND DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS MOVING OVER
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. THE ONLY TERMINAL THAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE KTCL...BUT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL OBSERVE
MULTIPLE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR NOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED
EVENTUALLY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWER/STORMS IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH ISO/SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  68  87  68 /  60  50  20  20  10
ANNISTON    69  84  68  88  68 /  60  50  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  86  69  89  70 /  50  40  20  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  70  89  70  92  71 /  40  20  10  10  10
CALERA      70  86  69  89  70 /  50  30  10  20  10
AUBURN      69  85  69  88  71 /  60  40  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  70  90  71  92  72 /  60  30  10  20  10
TROY        69  89  70  91  71 /  60  30  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291800
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR MIDDAY FORECAST UPDATE AND 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FOR FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...WHICH HAS REMAINED FAIRLY DRY
SO FAR. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE RISEN RAPIDLY FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...WITH PWATS JUMPING FROM 0.98 TO 1.67 INCHES ON THIS
MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE GOOD WITH
LOTS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE...BUT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AREN`T SO STRONG. THEREFORE...MOST STORMS TODAY SHOULD
BEHAVE FOR THE MOST PART. CAN`T RULE OUT A GUSTY WIND REPORT OR
TWO...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE WITH
ON AND OFF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIXED IN.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE MESSY TODAY WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AREAWIDE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN BETWEEN HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT EXPECT RAPID REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND
VARIABLE GUSTS OF WIND DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS MOVING OVER
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. THE ONLY TERMINAL THAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE KTCL...BUT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL OBSERVE
MULTIPLE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR NOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED
EVENTUALLY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWER/STORMS IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH ISO/SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  68  87  68 /  60  50  20  20  10
ANNISTON    69  84  68  88  68 /  60  50  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  86  69  89  70 /  50  40  20  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  70  89  70  92  71 /  40  20  10  10  10
CALERA      70  86  69  89  70 /  50  30  10  20  10
AUBURN      69  85  69  88  71 /  60  40  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  70  90  71  92  72 /  60  30  10  20  10
TROY        69  89  70  91  71 /  60  30  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 291151 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH A RIDGE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. TWO SHORTWAVES ARE
DISCERNIBLE...ONE CAN BE SEEN MOVING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS WITH THE SECOND DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SFC ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH RIDGING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 WHERE PW VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH NO REAL LIFTING MECHANISMS PRESENT ON MONDAY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM IN THE EAST.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM MID WEEK ONWARD DROPS OFF DUE
MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS
ERIKA. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC HAS ERIKA WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES OVER CUBA WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF IT RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. AT THIS TIME NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED HERE IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON
FUTURE CHANGES TO THE TRACK/INTENSITY FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOIST OVERALL PATTERN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
ENTIRE FORECAST AS UPPER LOW SITS OVER NORTHERN GULF ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE STATE. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING EVEN BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS ROBUST INITIALLY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GET MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE
PROGRESS DURING THE DAY. ONLY MENTIONING VCTS FOR NOW AS MORE SHRA
THAN TS EXPECTED.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWER/STORMS IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH ISO/SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     82  69  83  68  87 /  60  40  50  20  20
ANNISTON    82  69  84  68  88 /  60  50  50  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  83  70  86  69  89 /  40  40  40  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  87  70  89  70  92 /  30  20  20  10  10
CALERA      84  70  86  69  89 /  60  30  30  10  20
AUBURN      82  69  85  69  88 /  70  60  40  20  20
MONTGOMERY  87  70  90  71  92 /  60  30  30  10  20
TROY        85  69  89  70  91 /  70  30  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/08




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291151 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH A RIDGE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. TWO SHORTWAVES ARE
DISCERNIBLE...ONE CAN BE SEEN MOVING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS WITH THE SECOND DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SFC ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH RIDGING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 WHERE PW VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH NO REAL LIFTING MECHANISMS PRESENT ON MONDAY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM IN THE EAST.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM MID WEEK ONWARD DROPS OFF DUE
MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS
ERIKA. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC HAS ERIKA WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES OVER CUBA WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF IT RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. AT THIS TIME NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED HERE IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON
FUTURE CHANGES TO THE TRACK/INTENSITY FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOIST OVERALL PATTERN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
ENTIRE FORECAST AS UPPER LOW SITS OVER NORTHERN GULF ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE STATE. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING EVEN BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS ROBUST INITIALLY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GET MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE
PROGRESS DURING THE DAY. ONLY MENTIONING VCTS FOR NOW AS MORE SHRA
THAN TS EXPECTED.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWER/STORMS IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH ISO/SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     82  69  83  68  87 /  60  40  50  20  20
ANNISTON    82  69  84  68  88 /  60  50  50  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  83  70  86  69  89 /  40  40  40  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  87  70  89  70  92 /  30  20  20  10  10
CALERA      84  70  86  69  89 /  60  30  30  10  20
AUBURN      82  69  85  69  88 /  70  60  40  20  20
MONTGOMERY  87  70  90  71  92 /  60  30  30  10  20
TROY        85  69  89  70  91 /  70  30  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/08





000
FXUS64 KBMX 291151 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH A RIDGE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. TWO SHORTWAVES ARE
DISCERNIBLE...ONE CAN BE SEEN MOVING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS WITH THE SECOND DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SFC ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH RIDGING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 WHERE PW VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH NO REAL LIFTING MECHANISMS PRESENT ON MONDAY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM IN THE EAST.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM MID WEEK ONWARD DROPS OFF DUE
MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS
ERIKA. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC HAS ERIKA WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES OVER CUBA WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF IT RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. AT THIS TIME NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED HERE IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON
FUTURE CHANGES TO THE TRACK/INTENSITY FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOIST OVERALL PATTERN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
ENTIRE FORECAST AS UPPER LOW SITS OVER NORTHERN GULF ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE STATE. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING EVEN BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS ROBUST INITIALLY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GET MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE
PROGRESS DURING THE DAY. ONLY MENTIONING VCTS FOR NOW AS MORE SHRA
THAN TS EXPECTED.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWER/STORMS IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH ISO/SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     82  69  83  68  87 /  60  40  50  20  20
ANNISTON    82  69  84  68  88 /  60  50  50  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  83  70  86  69  89 /  40  40  40  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  87  70  89  70  92 /  30  20  20  10  10
CALERA      84  70  86  69  89 /  60  30  30  10  20
AUBURN      82  69  85  69  88 /  70  60  40  20  20
MONTGOMERY  87  70  90  71  92 /  60  30  30  10  20
TROY        85  69  89  70  91 /  70  30  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/08




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291151 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH A RIDGE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. TWO SHORTWAVES ARE
DISCERNIBLE...ONE CAN BE SEEN MOVING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS WITH THE SECOND DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SFC ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH RIDGING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 WHERE PW VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH NO REAL LIFTING MECHANISMS PRESENT ON MONDAY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM IN THE EAST.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM MID WEEK ONWARD DROPS OFF DUE
MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS
ERIKA. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC HAS ERIKA WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES OVER CUBA WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF IT RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. AT THIS TIME NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED HERE IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON
FUTURE CHANGES TO THE TRACK/INTENSITY FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOIST OVERALL PATTERN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
ENTIRE FORECAST AS UPPER LOW SITS OVER NORTHERN GULF ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE STATE. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING EVEN BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS ROBUST INITIALLY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GET MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE
PROGRESS DURING THE DAY. ONLY MENTIONING VCTS FOR NOW AS MORE SHRA
THAN TS EXPECTED.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWER/STORMS IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH ISO/SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     82  69  83  68  87 /  60  40  50  20  20
ANNISTON    82  69  84  68  88 /  60  50  50  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  83  70  86  69  89 /  40  40  40  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  87  70  89  70  92 /  30  20  20  10  10
CALERA      84  70  86  69  89 /  60  30  30  10  20
AUBURN      82  69  85  69  88 /  70  60  40  20  20
MONTGOMERY  87  70  90  71  92 /  60  30  30  10  20
TROY        85  69  89  70  91 /  70  30  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/08





000
FXUS64 KBMX 290806
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
306 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH A RIDGE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. TWO SHORTWAVES ARE
DISCERNIBLE...ONE CAN BE SEEN MOVING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS WITH THE SECOND DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SFC ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH RIDGING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 WHERE PW VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH NO REAL LIFTING MECHANISMS PRESENT ON MONDAY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM IN THE EAST.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM MID WEEK ONWARD DROPS OFF DUE
MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS
ERIKA. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC HAS ERIKA WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES OVER CUBA WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF IT RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. AT THIS TIME NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED HERE IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON
FUTURE CHANGES TO THE TRACK/INTENSITY FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ACTIVITY FINALLY HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS LAST RUN
WERE ALREADY BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS BY 8 TO 10Z. AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE LOOK FOR AN MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN
8 TO 12Z FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LATEST RUNS
ARE NOW INCREASING RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS
12Z IN MGM AND TOI AND QUICKLY SLIDING NORTH AND WEST SO INCLUDED
INTO THE TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE. DECREASED THE COVERAGE AFTER 21 TO
00Z BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWER/STORMS IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH ISO/SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     83  69  83  68  87 /  50  50  50  20  20
ANNISTON    83  69  84  68  88 /  60  50  50  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  84  70  86  69  89 /  40  40  40  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  87  70  89  70  92 /  30  30  20  10  10
CALERA      85  70  86  69  89 /  50  40  30  10  20
AUBURN      82  69  85  69  88 /  70  50  40  20  20
MONTGOMERY  87  70  90  71  92 /  60  40  30  10  20
TROY        84  69  89  70  91 /  60  40  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290806
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
306 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH A RIDGE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. TWO SHORTWAVES ARE
DISCERNIBLE...ONE CAN BE SEEN MOVING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS WITH THE SECOND DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SFC ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH RIDGING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 WHERE PW VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH NO REAL LIFTING MECHANISMS PRESENT ON MONDAY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM IN THE EAST.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM MID WEEK ONWARD DROPS OFF DUE
MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS
ERIKA. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC HAS ERIKA WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES OVER CUBA WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF IT RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. AT THIS TIME NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED HERE IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON
FUTURE CHANGES TO THE TRACK/INTENSITY FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ACTIVITY FINALLY HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS LAST RUN
WERE ALREADY BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS BY 8 TO 10Z. AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE LOOK FOR AN MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN
8 TO 12Z FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LATEST RUNS
ARE NOW INCREASING RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS
12Z IN MGM AND TOI AND QUICKLY SLIDING NORTH AND WEST SO INCLUDED
INTO THE TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE. DECREASED THE COVERAGE AFTER 21 TO
00Z BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWER/STORMS IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH ISO/SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     83  69  83  68  87 /  50  50  50  20  20
ANNISTON    83  69  84  68  88 /  60  50  50  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  84  70  86  69  89 /  40  40  40  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  87  70  89  70  92 /  30  30  20  10  10
CALERA      85  70  86  69  89 /  50  40  30  10  20
AUBURN      82  69  85  69  88 /  70  50  40  20  20
MONTGOMERY  87  70  90  71  92 /  60  40  30  10  20
TROY        84  69  89  70  91 /  60  40  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 290806
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
306 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH A RIDGE CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. TWO SHORTWAVES ARE
DISCERNIBLE...ONE CAN BE SEEN MOVING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS WITH THE SECOND DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SFC ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH RIDGING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 WHERE PW VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH NO REAL LIFTING MECHANISMS PRESENT ON MONDAY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM IN THE EAST.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM MID WEEK ONWARD DROPS OFF DUE
MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS
ERIKA. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC HAS ERIKA WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES OVER CUBA WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF IT RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. AT THIS TIME NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED HERE IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON
FUTURE CHANGES TO THE TRACK/INTENSITY FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ACTIVITY FINALLY HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS LAST RUN
WERE ALREADY BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS BY 8 TO 10Z. AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE LOOK FOR AN MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN
8 TO 12Z FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LATEST RUNS
ARE NOW INCREASING RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS
12Z IN MGM AND TOI AND QUICKLY SLIDING NORTH AND WEST SO INCLUDED
INTO THE TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE. DECREASED THE COVERAGE AFTER 21 TO
00Z BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWER/STORMS IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH ISO/SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     83  69  83  68  87 /  50  50  50  20  20
ANNISTON    83  69  84  68  88 /  60  50  50  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  84  70  86  69  89 /  40  40  40  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  87  70  89  70  92 /  30  30  20  10  10
CALERA      85  70  86  69  89 /  50  40  30  10  20
AUBURN      82  69  85  69  88 /  70  50  40  20  20
MONTGOMERY  87  70  90  71  92 /  60  40  30  10  20
TROY        84  69  89  70  91 /  60  40  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290456
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LARGELY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE STATE IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN...EXCEPT FOR ONE
STRONGER CLUSTER SOUTHWEST OF SELMA HEADING NORTHWESTWARD. WILL
SCALE BACK THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF CHANCE POPS AGAIN LATER ON TONIGHT IN THE
SOUTHEAST...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SWATH OF MOISTURE
ROTATING UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ACTIVITY FINALLY HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS LAST RUN
WERE ALREADY BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS BY 8 TO 10Z. AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE LOOK FOR AN MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN
8 TO 12Z FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LATEST RUNS
ARE NOW INCREASING RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS
12Z IN MGM AND TOI AND QUICKLY SLIDING NORTH AND WEST SO INCLUDED
INTO THE TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE. DECREASED THE COVERAGE AFTER 21 TO
00Z BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  69  84  67 /  10  50  50  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  50  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  30  40  40  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  30  30  30  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  30  50  40  30  20
AUBURN      70  82  69  86  70 /  30  70  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  71 /  20  60  40  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 290456
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LARGELY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE STATE IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN...EXCEPT FOR ONE
STRONGER CLUSTER SOUTHWEST OF SELMA HEADING NORTHWESTWARD. WILL
SCALE BACK THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF CHANCE POPS AGAIN LATER ON TONIGHT IN THE
SOUTHEAST...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SWATH OF MOISTURE
ROTATING UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ACTIVITY FINALLY HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS LAST RUN
WERE ALREADY BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS BY 8 TO 10Z. AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE LOOK FOR AN MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN
8 TO 12Z FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LATEST RUNS
ARE NOW INCREASING RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS
12Z IN MGM AND TOI AND QUICKLY SLIDING NORTH AND WEST SO INCLUDED
INTO THE TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE. DECREASED THE COVERAGE AFTER 21 TO
00Z BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  69  84  67 /  10  50  50  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  50  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  30  40  40  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  30  30  30  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  30  50  40  30  20
AUBURN      70  82  69  86  70 /  30  70  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  71 /  20  60  40  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290456
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LARGELY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE STATE IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN...EXCEPT FOR ONE
STRONGER CLUSTER SOUTHWEST OF SELMA HEADING NORTHWESTWARD. WILL
SCALE BACK THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF CHANCE POPS AGAIN LATER ON TONIGHT IN THE
SOUTHEAST...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SWATH OF MOISTURE
ROTATING UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ACTIVITY FINALLY HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS LAST RUN
WERE ALREADY BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS BY 8 TO 10Z. AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE LOOK FOR AN MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN
8 TO 12Z FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LATEST RUNS
ARE NOW INCREASING RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS
12Z IN MGM AND TOI AND QUICKLY SLIDING NORTH AND WEST SO INCLUDED
INTO THE TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE. DECREASED THE COVERAGE AFTER 21 TO
00Z BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  69  84  67 /  10  50  50  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  50  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  30  40  40  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  30  30  30  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  30  50  40  30  20
AUBURN      70  82  69  86  70 /  30  70  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  71 /  20  60  40  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 290456
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LARGELY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE STATE IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN...EXCEPT FOR ONE
STRONGER CLUSTER SOUTHWEST OF SELMA HEADING NORTHWESTWARD. WILL
SCALE BACK THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF CHANCE POPS AGAIN LATER ON TONIGHT IN THE
SOUTHEAST...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SWATH OF MOISTURE
ROTATING UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ACTIVITY FINALLY HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS LAST RUN
WERE ALREADY BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS BY 8 TO 10Z. AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE LOOK FOR AN MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN
8 TO 12Z FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LATEST RUNS
ARE NOW INCREASING RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS
12Z IN MGM AND TOI AND QUICKLY SLIDING NORTH AND WEST SO INCLUDED
INTO THE TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE. DECREASED THE COVERAGE AFTER 21 TO
00Z BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  69  84  67 /  10  50  50  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  50  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  30  40  40  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  30  30  30  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  30  50  40  30  20
AUBURN      70  82  69  86  70 /  30  70  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  71 /  20  60  40  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290249
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
949 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LARGELY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE STATE IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN...EXCEPT FOR ONE
STRONGER CLUSTER SOUTHWEST OF SELMA HEADING NORTHWESTWARD. WILL
SCALE BACK THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF CHANCE POPS AGAIN LATER ON TONIGHT IN THE
SOUTHEAST...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SWATH OF MOISTURE
ROTATING UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY OUT THERE THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF IT
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TCL TO EET. EET WILL SEE A THUNDERSTORM
BEFORE 01Z AND TCL MAY SEE VCTS THROUGH 03Z. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 7 TO 8Z. LOOK FOR THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A LOW MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN 8 TO 12Z
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. CLOUDS WILL IMPROVE
AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE AFTER 17Z...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65.

16


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290249
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
949 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LARGELY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE STATE IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN...EXCEPT FOR ONE
STRONGER CLUSTER SOUTHWEST OF SELMA HEADING NORTHWESTWARD. WILL
SCALE BACK THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF CHANCE POPS AGAIN LATER ON TONIGHT IN THE
SOUTHEAST...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SWATH OF MOISTURE
ROTATING UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY OUT THERE THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF IT
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TCL TO EET. EET WILL SEE A THUNDERSTORM
BEFORE 01Z AND TCL MAY SEE VCTS THROUGH 03Z. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 7 TO 8Z. LOOK FOR THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A LOW MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN 8 TO 12Z
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. CLOUDS WILL IMPROVE
AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE AFTER 17Z...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65.

16


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 290036
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
736 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED THIS AFTERNOON SO THERE
WERE NOT MANY CHANGES MADE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF AND EASTERLY SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW BRING IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
SOME MISSES ALREADY ON THE FIRST 12 HOURS FROM THE GFS/EURO/GEM AS
THEY POSITIONED THE CENTER TOO FAR NORTH AT CURRENT TIMING.
THROUGH MONDAY...WE WOULD NOT SEE ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA ANYWAYS...AND NOT MUCH ELSE TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
SOME INDICATION THE SYSTEM NEARLY DISSIPATES. WITH ALL THAT IN
MIND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY OUT THERE THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF IT
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TCL TO EET. EET WILL SEE A THUNDERSTORM
BEFORE 01Z AND TCL MAY SEE VCTS THROUGH 03Z. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 7 TO 8Z. LOOK FOR THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A LOW MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN 8 TO 12Z
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. CLOUDS WILL IMPROVE
AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE AFTER 17Z...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  69  84  67 /  20  50  50  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  50  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  40  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  30  30  30  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  40  50  40  30  20
AUBURN      70  82  69  86  70 /  30  70  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  71 /  20  60  40  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290036
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
736 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED THIS AFTERNOON SO THERE
WERE NOT MANY CHANGES MADE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF AND EASTERLY SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW BRING IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
SOME MISSES ALREADY ON THE FIRST 12 HOURS FROM THE GFS/EURO/GEM AS
THEY POSITIONED THE CENTER TOO FAR NORTH AT CURRENT TIMING.
THROUGH MONDAY...WE WOULD NOT SEE ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA ANYWAYS...AND NOT MUCH ELSE TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
SOME INDICATION THE SYSTEM NEARLY DISSIPATES. WITH ALL THAT IN
MIND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY OUT THERE THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF IT
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TCL TO EET. EET WILL SEE A THUNDERSTORM
BEFORE 01Z AND TCL MAY SEE VCTS THROUGH 03Z. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 7 TO 8Z. LOOK FOR THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A LOW MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN 8 TO 12Z
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. CLOUDS WILL IMPROVE
AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE AFTER 17Z...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  69  84  67 /  20  50  50  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  50  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  40  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  30  30  30  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  40  50  40  30  20
AUBURN      70  82  69  86  70 /  30  70  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  71 /  20  60  40  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290036
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
736 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED THIS AFTERNOON SO THERE
WERE NOT MANY CHANGES MADE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF AND EASTERLY SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW BRING IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
SOME MISSES ALREADY ON THE FIRST 12 HOURS FROM THE GFS/EURO/GEM AS
THEY POSITIONED THE CENTER TOO FAR NORTH AT CURRENT TIMING.
THROUGH MONDAY...WE WOULD NOT SEE ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA ANYWAYS...AND NOT MUCH ELSE TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
SOME INDICATION THE SYSTEM NEARLY DISSIPATES. WITH ALL THAT IN
MIND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY OUT THERE THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF IT
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TCL TO EET. EET WILL SEE A THUNDERSTORM
BEFORE 01Z AND TCL MAY SEE VCTS THROUGH 03Z. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 7 TO 8Z. LOOK FOR THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A LOW MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN 8 TO 12Z
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. CLOUDS WILL IMPROVE
AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE AFTER 17Z...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  69  84  67 /  20  50  50  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  50  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  40  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  30  30  30  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  40  50  40  30  20
AUBURN      70  82  69  86  70 /  30  70  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  71 /  20  60  40  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 290036
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
736 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED THIS AFTERNOON SO THERE
WERE NOT MANY CHANGES MADE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF AND EASTERLY SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW BRING IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
SOME MISSES ALREADY ON THE FIRST 12 HOURS FROM THE GFS/EURO/GEM AS
THEY POSITIONED THE CENTER TOO FAR NORTH AT CURRENT TIMING.
THROUGH MONDAY...WE WOULD NOT SEE ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA ANYWAYS...AND NOT MUCH ELSE TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
SOME INDICATION THE SYSTEM NEARLY DISSIPATES. WITH ALL THAT IN
MIND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY OUT THERE THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF IT
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TCL TO EET. EET WILL SEE A THUNDERSTORM
BEFORE 01Z AND TCL MAY SEE VCTS THROUGH 03Z. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 7 TO 8Z. LOOK FOR THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A LOW MVFR/IFR DECK BETWEEN 8 TO 12Z
FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. CLOUDS WILL IMPROVE
AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE AFTER 17Z...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  69  84  67 /  20  50  50  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  50  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  40  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  30  30  30  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  40  50  40  30  20
AUBURN      70  82  69  86  70 /  30  70  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  71 /  20  60  40  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 282007
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED THIS AFTERNOON SO THERE
WERE NOT MANY CHANGES MADE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF AND EASTERLY SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW BRING IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
SOME MISSES ALREADY ON THE FIRST 12 HOURS FROM THE GFS/EURO/GEM AS
THEY POSITIONED THE CENTER TOO FAR NORTH AT CURRENT TIMING.
THROUGH MONDAY...WE WOULD NOT SEE ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA ANYWAYS...AND NOT MUCH ELSE TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
SOME INDICATION THE SYSTEM NEARLY DISSIPATES. WITH ALL THAT IN
MIND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOWER MVFR CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI HAVE
WARRANTED INCLUSION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  69  84  67 /  20  50  50  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  50  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  40  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  10  30  30  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  20  50  40  30  20
AUBURN      70  82  69  86  70 /  30  70  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  71 /  20  60  40  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 282007
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED THIS AFTERNOON SO THERE
WERE NOT MANY CHANGES MADE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF AND EASTERLY SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW BRING IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
SOME MISSES ALREADY ON THE FIRST 12 HOURS FROM THE GFS/EURO/GEM AS
THEY POSITIONED THE CENTER TOO FAR NORTH AT CURRENT TIMING.
THROUGH MONDAY...WE WOULD NOT SEE ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA ANYWAYS...AND NOT MUCH ELSE TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
SOME INDICATION THE SYSTEM NEARLY DISSIPATES. WITH ALL THAT IN
MIND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOWER MVFR CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI HAVE
WARRANTED INCLUSION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY RISING. SOME ISO/SCT CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  83  69  84  67 /  20  50  50  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  50  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  40  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  10  30  30  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  20  50  40  30  20
AUBURN      70  82  69  86  70 /  30  70  50  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  71 /  20  60  40  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  40  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281827
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
127 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOWER MVFR CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI HAVE
WARRANTED INCLUSION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  84  69  84  67 /  20  50  40  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  40  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  20  30  20  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  20  50  30  30  20
AUBURN      71  83  70  85  70 /  30  60  40  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  70 /  30  60  30  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  30  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281827
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
127 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOWER MVFR CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI HAVE
WARRANTED INCLUSION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  84  69  84  67 /  20  50  40  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  40  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  20  30  20  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  20  50  30  30  20
AUBURN      71  83  70  85  70 /  30  60  40  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  70 /  30  60  30  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  30  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 281827
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
127 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOWER MVFR CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI HAVE
WARRANTED INCLUSION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  84  69  84  67 /  20  50  40  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  40  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  20  30  20  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  20  50  30  30  20
AUBURN      71  83  70  85  70 /  30  60  40  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  70 /  30  60  30  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  30  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 281827
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
127 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOWER MVFR CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMGM AND KTOI HAVE
WARRANTED INCLUSION OF VCTS IN THE TAF FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  84  69  84  67 /  20  50  40  40  20
ANNISTON    70  83  69  85  68 /  20  60  40  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  84  70  86  69 /  20  40  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  71  87  70  89  70 /  20  30  20  20  10
CALERA      71  85  70  86  70 /  20  50  30  30  20
AUBURN      71  83  70  85  70 /  30  60  40  40  20
MONTGOMERY  71  87  71  90  70 /  30  60  30  30  20
TROY        70  84  69  89  70 /  30  60  30  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281712
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1212 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE HELPING TO BRING IN SOME
CLOUDINESS FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING. FOR MGM/TOI ~7-8KFT.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WE ARE SEEING SOME
MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN...BUT THINK THE IFR WILL NOT MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA BEFORE WE GET SUFFICIENT MIXING. HAVE
TEMPOED IN MVFR CIGS FOR ASN/ANB. TO THE WEST OF THERE FOR
BHM/EET/TCL...WE SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT SOME HIGHER STRATOCU IS
POSSIBLE. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON TIMING OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN...SO
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF TERMINALS BUT DO HAVE SOME BKN040
CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

08


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 281712
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1212 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE HELPING TO BRING IN SOME
CLOUDINESS FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING. FOR MGM/TOI ~7-8KFT.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WE ARE SEEING SOME
MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN...BUT THINK THE IFR WILL NOT MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA BEFORE WE GET SUFFICIENT MIXING. HAVE
TEMPOED IN MVFR CIGS FOR ASN/ANB. TO THE WEST OF THERE FOR
BHM/EET/TCL...WE SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT SOME HIGHER STRATOCU IS
POSSIBLE. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON TIMING OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN...SO
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF TERMINALS BUT DO HAVE SOME BKN040
CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

08


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281712
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1212 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE HELPING TO BRING IN SOME
CLOUDINESS FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING. FOR MGM/TOI ~7-8KFT.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WE ARE SEEING SOME
MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN...BUT THINK THE IFR WILL NOT MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA BEFORE WE GET SUFFICIENT MIXING. HAVE
TEMPOED IN MVFR CIGS FOR ASN/ANB. TO THE WEST OF THERE FOR
BHM/EET/TCL...WE SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT SOME HIGHER STRATOCU IS
POSSIBLE. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON TIMING OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN...SO
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF TERMINALS BUT DO HAVE SOME BKN040
CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

08


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 281712
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1212 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING STILL INDICATED
LOTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND LESS THAN ONE INCH PWATS. SO...IT`S
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO GET
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALABAMA. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY BECOMING HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...WE ALREADY HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS AT THIS HOUR. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE HELPING TO BRING IN SOME
CLOUDINESS FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING. FOR MGM/TOI ~7-8KFT.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WE ARE SEEING SOME
MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN...BUT THINK THE IFR WILL NOT MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA BEFORE WE GET SUFFICIENT MIXING. HAVE
TEMPOED IN MVFR CIGS FOR ASN/ANB. TO THE WEST OF THERE FOR
BHM/EET/TCL...WE SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT SOME HIGHER STRATOCU IS
POSSIBLE. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON TIMING OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN...SO
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF TERMINALS BUT DO HAVE SOME BKN040
CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

08


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281204 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
704 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SFC...BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND ALSO
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE EAST
HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO
SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING TODAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATER TODAY AS
THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING A BIT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH MODEL CONCENSUS NOW
BRINGING ERIKA NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
VERSUS THE EAST COAST...EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHING
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THRU TUESDAY WE WOULD LIKELY
SEE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE
REMNANT ENERGY EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE GFS PULLS
IT WESTWARD INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA COAST.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE HELPING TO BRING IN SOME
CLOUDINESS FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING. FOR MGM/TOI ~7-8KFT.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WE ARE SEEING SOME
MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN...BUT THINK THE IFR WILL NOT MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA BEFORE WE GET SUFFICIENT MIXING. HAVE
TEMPOED IN MVFR CIGS FOR ASN/ANB. TO THE WEST OF THERE FOR
BHM/EET/TCL...WE SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT SOME HIGHER STRATOCU IS
POSSIBLE. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON TIMING OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN...SO
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF TERMINALS BUT DO HAVE SOME BKN040
CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/08





000
FXUS64 KBMX 281204 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
704 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SFC...BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND ALSO
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE EAST
HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO
SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING TODAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATER TODAY AS
THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING A BIT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH MODEL CONCENSUS NOW
BRINGING ERIKA NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
VERSUS THE EAST COAST...EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHING
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THRU TUESDAY WE WOULD LIKELY
SEE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE
REMNANT ENERGY EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE GFS PULLS
IT WESTWARD INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA COAST.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE HELPING TO BRING IN SOME
CLOUDINESS FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING. FOR MGM/TOI ~7-8KFT.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WE ARE SEEING SOME
MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN...BUT THINK THE IFR WILL NOT MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA BEFORE WE GET SUFFICIENT MIXING. HAVE
TEMPOED IN MVFR CIGS FOR ASN/ANB. TO THE WEST OF THERE FOR
BHM/EET/TCL...WE SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT SOME HIGHER STRATOCU IS
POSSIBLE. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON TIMING OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN...SO
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF TERMINALS BUT DO HAVE SOME BKN040
CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/08




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281204 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
704 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SFC...BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND ALSO
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE EAST
HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO
SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING TODAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATER TODAY AS
THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING A BIT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH MODEL CONCENSUS NOW
BRINGING ERIKA NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
VERSUS THE EAST COAST...EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHING
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THRU TUESDAY WE WOULD LIKELY
SEE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE
REMNANT ENERGY EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE GFS PULLS
IT WESTWARD INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA COAST.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE HELPING TO BRING IN SOME
CLOUDINESS FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING. FOR MGM/TOI ~7-8KFT.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WE ARE SEEING SOME
MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN...BUT THINK THE IFR WILL NOT MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA BEFORE WE GET SUFFICIENT MIXING. HAVE
TEMPOED IN MVFR CIGS FOR ASN/ANB. TO THE WEST OF THERE FOR
BHM/EET/TCL...WE SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT SOME HIGHER STRATOCU IS
POSSIBLE. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON TIMING OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN...SO
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF TERMINALS BUT DO HAVE SOME BKN040
CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/08





000
FXUS64 KBMX 281204 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
704 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SFC...BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND ALSO
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE EAST
HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO
SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING TODAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATER TODAY AS
THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING A BIT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH MODEL CONCENSUS NOW
BRINGING ERIKA NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
VERSUS THE EAST COAST...EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHING
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THRU TUESDAY WE WOULD LIKELY
SEE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE
REMNANT ENERGY EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE GFS PULLS
IT WESTWARD INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA COAST.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE HELPING TO BRING IN SOME
CLOUDINESS FROM GEORGIA THIS MORNING. FOR MGM/TOI ~7-8KFT.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WE ARE SEEING SOME
MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN...BUT THINK THE IFR WILL NOT MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS FROM GEORGIA BEFORE WE GET SUFFICIENT MIXING. HAVE
TEMPOED IN MVFR CIGS FOR ASN/ANB. TO THE WEST OF THERE FOR
BHM/EET/TCL...WE SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT SOME HIGHER STRATOCU IS
POSSIBLE. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON TIMING OF DECENT MOISTURE RETURN...SO
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF TERMINALS BUT DO HAVE SOME BKN040
CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/08




000
FXUS64 KBMX 280902 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
356 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SFC...BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND ALSO
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE EAST
HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO
SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING TODAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATER TODAY AS
THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING A BIT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH MODEL CONCENSUS NOW
BRINGING ERIKA NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...VERSUS THE EAST COAST...EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOME WEAK
TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THRU TUESDAY WE
WOULD LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA HERE IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANT ENERGY EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE
GFS PULLS IT WESTWARD INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA COAST.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS
AT MOST SPOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT THERE IS SOME CHANGE
ON THE HORIZON...WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STARTING TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE ONLY SPOT THAT HAS A BETTER SHOT AT
GETTING SOME LIGHT (MVFR) FOG IS ANB...AND IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN
IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF AROUND OR JUST AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.
BESIDES THAT...I DON`T FORESEE ANYTHING BESIDES SCATTERED TO
(PERHAPS) BROKEN COVERAGE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. THERE SEEMS
TO BE ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SUNSET ON
FRIDAY...BUT MY CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN GETTING LOWER CLOUD FORMATION
AT THAT TIME IS QUITE LOW (ESPECIALLY THAT WOULD BE AN UNUSUAL
TIME OF DAY TO GET SAID CLOUDS WITHOUT A FRONT BEING INVOLVED).

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 280902 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
356 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SFC...BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND ALSO
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE EAST
HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO
SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING TODAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATER TODAY AS
THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING A BIT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH MODEL CONCENSUS NOW
BRINGING ERIKA NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...VERSUS THE EAST COAST...EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOME WEAK
TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THRU TUESDAY WE
WOULD LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA HERE IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANT ENERGY EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE
GFS PULLS IT WESTWARD INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA COAST.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS
AT MOST SPOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT THERE IS SOME CHANGE
ON THE HORIZON...WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STARTING TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE ONLY SPOT THAT HAS A BETTER SHOT AT
GETTING SOME LIGHT (MVFR) FOG IS ANB...AND IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN
IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF AROUND OR JUST AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.
BESIDES THAT...I DON`T FORESEE ANYTHING BESIDES SCATTERED TO
(PERHAPS) BROKEN COVERAGE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. THERE SEEMS
TO BE ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SUNSET ON
FRIDAY...BUT MY CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN GETTING LOWER CLOUD FORMATION
AT THAT TIME IS QUITE LOW (ESPECIALLY THAT WOULD BE AN UNUSUAL
TIME OF DAY TO GET SAID CLOUDS WITHOUT A FRONT BEING INVOLVED).

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 280902 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
356 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SFC...BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND ALSO
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE EAST
HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO
SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING TODAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATER TODAY AS
THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING A BIT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH MODEL CONCENSUS NOW
BRINGING ERIKA NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...VERSUS THE EAST COAST...EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOME WEAK
TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THRU TUESDAY WE
WOULD LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA HERE IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANT ENERGY EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE
GFS PULLS IT WESTWARD INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA COAST.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS
AT MOST SPOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT THERE IS SOME CHANGE
ON THE HORIZON...WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STARTING TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE ONLY SPOT THAT HAS A BETTER SHOT AT
GETTING SOME LIGHT (MVFR) FOG IS ANB...AND IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN
IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF AROUND OR JUST AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.
BESIDES THAT...I DON`T FORESEE ANYTHING BESIDES SCATTERED TO
(PERHAPS) BROKEN COVERAGE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. THERE SEEMS
TO BE ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SUNSET ON
FRIDAY...BUT MY CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN GETTING LOWER CLOUD FORMATION
AT THAT TIME IS QUITE LOW (ESPECIALLY THAT WOULD BE AN UNUSUAL
TIME OF DAY TO GET SAID CLOUDS WITHOUT A FRONT BEING INVOLVED).

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 280902 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
356 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SFC...BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND ALSO
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE EAST
HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO
SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING TODAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATER TODAY AS
THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING A BIT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH MODEL CONCENSUS NOW
BRINGING ERIKA NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...VERSUS THE EAST COAST...EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOME WEAK
TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THRU TUESDAY WE
WOULD LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA HERE IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANT ENERGY EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE
GFS PULLS IT WESTWARD INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA COAST.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS
AT MOST SPOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT THERE IS SOME CHANGE
ON THE HORIZON...WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STARTING TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE ONLY SPOT THAT HAS A BETTER SHOT AT
GETTING SOME LIGHT (MVFR) FOG IS ANB...AND IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN
IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF AROUND OR JUST AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.
BESIDES THAT...I DON`T FORESEE ANYTHING BESIDES SCATTERED TO
(PERHAPS) BROKEN COVERAGE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. THERE SEEMS
TO BE ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SUNSET ON
FRIDAY...BUT MY CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN GETTING LOWER CLOUD FORMATION
AT THAT TIME IS QUITE LOW (ESPECIALLY THAT WOULD BE AN UNUSUAL
TIME OF DAY TO GET SAID CLOUDS WITHOUT A FRONT BEING INVOLVED).

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 280856
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
356 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SFC...BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND ALSO
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE EAST
HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO
SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING TODAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATER TODAY AS
THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING A BIT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH MODEL CONCENSUS
NOW BRINGING WHAT COULD BE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOME WEAK
TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THRU TUESDAY WE
WOULD LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA HERE IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANT ENERGY EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE
THE GFS PULLS IN WESTWARD INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA
COAST. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS
AT MOST SPOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT THERE IS SOME CHANGE
ON THE HORIZON...WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STARTING TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE ONLY SPOT THAT HAS A BETTER SHOT AT
GETTING SOME LIGHT (MVFR) FOG IS ANB...AND IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN
IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF AROUND OR JUST AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.
BESIDES THAT...I DON`T FORESEE ANYTHING BESIDES SCATTERED TO
(PERHAPS) BROKEN COVERAGE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. THERE SEEMS
TO BE ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SUNSET ON
FRIDAY...BUT MY CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN GETTING LOWER CLOUD FORMATION
AT THAT TIME IS QUITE LOW (ESPECIALLY THAT WOULD BE AN UNUSUAL
TIME OF DAY TO GET SAID CLOUDS WITHOUT A FRONT BEING INVOLVED).

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 280856
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
356 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SFC...BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND ALSO
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE EAST
HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO
SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING TODAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATER TODAY AS
THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING A BIT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH MODEL CONCENSUS
NOW BRINGING WHAT COULD BE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOME WEAK
TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THRU TUESDAY WE
WOULD LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA HERE IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANT ENERGY EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE
THE GFS PULLS IN WESTWARD INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA
COAST. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS
AT MOST SPOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT THERE IS SOME CHANGE
ON THE HORIZON...WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STARTING TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE ONLY SPOT THAT HAS A BETTER SHOT AT
GETTING SOME LIGHT (MVFR) FOG IS ANB...AND IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN
IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF AROUND OR JUST AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.
BESIDES THAT...I DON`T FORESEE ANYTHING BESIDES SCATTERED TO
(PERHAPS) BROKEN COVERAGE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. THERE SEEMS
TO BE ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SUNSET ON
FRIDAY...BUT MY CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN GETTING LOWER CLOUD FORMATION
AT THAT TIME IS QUITE LOW (ESPECIALLY THAT WOULD BE AN UNUSUAL
TIME OF DAY TO GET SAID CLOUDS WITHOUT A FRONT BEING INVOLVED).

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 280856
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
356 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SFC...BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND ALSO
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE EAST
HERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO
SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING TODAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
VERTICAL PROFILES WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATER TODAY AS
THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO ALABAMA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE THE
GREATEST. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING A BIT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN LIMBO DUE TO TS ERIKA.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH MODEL CONCENSUS
NOW BRINGING WHAT COULD BE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOME WEAK
TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THRU TUESDAY WE
WOULD LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT FROM ERIKA HERE IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE REMNANT ENERGY EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE
THE GFS PULLS IN WESTWARD INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA
COAST. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS
AT MOST SPOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT THERE IS SOME CHANGE
ON THE HORIZON...WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STARTING TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE ONLY SPOT THAT HAS A BETTER SHOT AT
GETTING SOME LIGHT (MVFR) FOG IS ANB...AND IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN
IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF AROUND OR JUST AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.
BESIDES THAT...I DON`T FORESEE ANYTHING BESIDES SCATTERED TO
(PERHAPS) BROKEN COVERAGE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. THERE SEEMS
TO BE ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SUNSET ON
FRIDAY...BUT MY CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN GETTING LOWER CLOUD FORMATION
AT THAT TIME IS QUITE LOW (ESPECIALLY THAT WOULD BE AN UNUSUAL
TIME OF DAY TO GET SAID CLOUDS WITHOUT A FRONT BEING INVOLVED).

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE VALUES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RISE TODAY. SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY. FOR
NEXT WEEK...LOOK FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS EACH DAY. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     88  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    88  70  83  69  85 /  20  20  60  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  89  71  84  70  86 /  20  20  40  30  30
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  87  70  89 /  10  20  30  20  20
CALERA      89  71  85  70  86 /  20  20  50  30  30
AUBURN      88  71  83  70  85 /  30  30  60  40  40
MONTGOMERY  92  71  87  71  90 /  30  30  60  30  30
TROY        91  70  84  69  89 /  30  30  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 280454
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1154 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS
AT MOST SPOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT THERE IS SOME CHANGE
ON THE HORIZON...WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STARTING TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE ONLY SPOT THAT HAS A BETTER SHOT AT
GETTING SOME LIGHT (MVFR) FOG IS ANB...AND IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN
IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF AROUND OR JUST AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.
BESIDES THAT...I DON`T FORESEE ANYTHING BESIDES SCATTERED TO
(PERHAPS) BROKEN COVERAGE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. THERE SEEMS
TO BE ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SUNSET ON
FRIDAY...BUT MY CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN GETTING LOWER CLOUD FORMATION
AT THAT TIME IS QUITE LOW (ESPECIALLY THAT WOULD BE AN UNUSUAL
TIME OF DAY TO GET SAID CLOUDS WITHOUT A FRONT BEING INVOLVED).

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 280156
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
856 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. A WEAK EASTERLY
WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL AIDE IN THE EASTERLY MOISTURE INCREASE.
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE THE RESULT THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL OUTPUT
DIFFERS ON THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE LEVELS OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY CEILINGS BUT WILL BE MONITORING
FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. AT LEAST...A FEW CUMULUS WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE STATE. FOG HAS BEEN VERY SPORADIC THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS AND HAS NOT IMPACTED ANY TERMINAL. LEFT THE BRIEF
MENTION AROUND SUNRISE AT ANB. FRIDAY WILL SEE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 9 KTS WITH THE CUMULUS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. SOME
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP PARTICULARLY EAST BUT WILL BE VFR.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 280156
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
856 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. A WEAK EASTERLY
WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL AIDE IN THE EASTERLY MOISTURE INCREASE.
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE THE RESULT THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL OUTPUT
DIFFERS ON THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE LEVELS OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY CEILINGS BUT WILL BE MONITORING
FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. AT LEAST...A FEW CUMULUS WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE STATE. FOG HAS BEEN VERY SPORADIC THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS AND HAS NOT IMPACTED ANY TERMINAL. LEFT THE BRIEF
MENTION AROUND SUNRISE AT ANB. FRIDAY WILL SEE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 9 KTS WITH THE CUMULUS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. SOME
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP PARTICULARLY EAST BUT WILL BE VFR.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 280156
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
856 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. A WEAK EASTERLY
WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL AIDE IN THE EASTERLY MOISTURE INCREASE.
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE THE RESULT THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL OUTPUT
DIFFERS ON THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE LEVELS OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY CEILINGS BUT WILL BE MONITORING
FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. AT LEAST...A FEW CUMULUS WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE STATE. FOG HAS BEEN VERY SPORADIC THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS AND HAS NOT IMPACTED ANY TERMINAL. LEFT THE BRIEF
MENTION AROUND SUNRISE AT ANB. FRIDAY WILL SEE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 9 KTS WITH THE CUMULUS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. SOME
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP PARTICULARLY EAST BUT WILL BE VFR.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 280156
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
856 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. A WEAK EASTERLY
WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL AIDE IN THE EASTERLY MOISTURE INCREASE.
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE THE RESULT THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL OUTPUT
DIFFERS ON THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE LEVELS OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY CEILINGS BUT WILL BE MONITORING
FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. AT LEAST...A FEW CUMULUS WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE STATE. FOG HAS BEEN VERY SPORADIC THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS AND HAS NOT IMPACTED ANY TERMINAL. LEFT THE BRIEF
MENTION AROUND SUNRISE AT ANB. FRIDAY WILL SEE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 9 KTS WITH THE CUMULUS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. SOME
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP PARTICULARLY EAST BUT WILL BE VFR.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 280013
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
713 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EASTERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO SET UP WITH WINDS IN EAST ALABAMA
ALREADY THERE. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN UP THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE TOMORROW IN SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA BUT STILL RELATIVELY DRY.

SATURDAY...WEAK UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS ELONGATED TROUGHING
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. BUMPED UP THE POPS WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE FROM EAST TO
WEST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA OF LIFT ALONG
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FEATURE AND COINCIDING WITH THE
WEDGE FRONT-LIKE AFFECTS FROM THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. BROUGHT
DOWN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE
AND EASTERLY AFFECTS.

BY SUNDAY...THE SATURDAY FEATURES BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE UPPER
LIFT PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME. COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS AND
TEMPERATURES JUST A LITTLE WARMER.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH TO REALLY TO INITIATE
CONVECTION THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT ERIKA
WILL DO BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY VERY LOW POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
AVERAGE.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. A WEAK EASTERLY
WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL AIDE IN THE EASTERLY MOISTURE INCREASE.
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE THE RESULT THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL OUTPUT
DIFFERS ON THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE LEVELS OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY CEILINGS BUT WILL BE MONITORING
FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. AT LEAST...A FEW CUMULUS WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE STATE. FOG HAS BEEN VERY SPORADIC THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS AND HAS NOT IMPACTED ANY TERMINAL. LEFT THE BRIEF
MENTION AROUND SUNRISE AT ANB. FRIDAY WILL SEE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 9 KTS WITH THE CUMULUS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. SOME
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP PARTICULARLY EAST BUT WILL BE VFR.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  87  69  85  69 /   0  10  10  50  40
ANNISTON    67  88  70  86  69 /   0  10  10  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  89  71  85  70 /   0  10  10  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  67  91  70  88  70 /   0   0   0  40  30
CALERA      68  89  70  86  70 /   0  10  10  50  40
AUBURN      69  88  70  85  70 /   0  20  10  50  40
MONTGOMERY  68  92  71  89  71 /   0  10  10  50  30
TROY        67  90  70  86  69 /   0  20  10  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 280013
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
713 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EASTERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO SET UP WITH WINDS IN EAST ALABAMA
ALREADY THERE. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN UP THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE TOMORROW IN SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA BUT STILL RELATIVELY DRY.

SATURDAY...WEAK UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS ELONGATED TROUGHING
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. BUMPED UP THE POPS WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE FROM EAST TO
WEST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA OF LIFT ALONG
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FEATURE AND COINCIDING WITH THE
WEDGE FRONT-LIKE AFFECTS FROM THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. BROUGHT
DOWN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE
AND EASTERLY AFFECTS.

BY SUNDAY...THE SATURDAY FEATURES BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE UPPER
LIFT PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME. COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS AND
TEMPERATURES JUST A LITTLE WARMER.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH TO REALLY TO INITIATE
CONVECTION THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT ERIKA
WILL DO BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY VERY LOW POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
AVERAGE.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. A WEAK EASTERLY
WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL AIDE IN THE EASTERLY MOISTURE INCREASE.
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE THE RESULT THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL OUTPUT
DIFFERS ON THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE LEVELS OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY CEILINGS BUT WILL BE MONITORING
FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. AT LEAST...A FEW CUMULUS WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE STATE. FOG HAS BEEN VERY SPORADIC THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS AND HAS NOT IMPACTED ANY TERMINAL. LEFT THE BRIEF
MENTION AROUND SUNRISE AT ANB. FRIDAY WILL SEE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 9 KTS WITH THE CUMULUS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. SOME
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP PARTICULARLY EAST BUT WILL BE VFR.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  87  69  85  69 /   0  10  10  50  40
ANNISTON    67  88  70  86  69 /   0  10  10  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  89  71  85  70 /   0  10  10  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  67  91  70  88  70 /   0   0   0  40  30
CALERA      68  89  70  86  70 /   0  10  10  50  40
AUBURN      69  88  70  85  70 /   0  20  10  50  40
MONTGOMERY  68  92  71  89  71 /   0  10  10  50  30
TROY        67  90  70  86  69 /   0  20  10  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 280013
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
713 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EASTERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO SET UP WITH WINDS IN EAST ALABAMA
ALREADY THERE. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN UP THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE TOMORROW IN SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA BUT STILL RELATIVELY DRY.

SATURDAY...WEAK UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS ELONGATED TROUGHING
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. BUMPED UP THE POPS WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE FROM EAST TO
WEST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA OF LIFT ALONG
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FEATURE AND COINCIDING WITH THE
WEDGE FRONT-LIKE AFFECTS FROM THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. BROUGHT
DOWN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE
AND EASTERLY AFFECTS.

BY SUNDAY...THE SATURDAY FEATURES BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE UPPER
LIFT PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME. COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS AND
TEMPERATURES JUST A LITTLE WARMER.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH TO REALLY TO INITIATE
CONVECTION THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT ERIKA
WILL DO BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY VERY LOW POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
AVERAGE.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. A WEAK EASTERLY
WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL AIDE IN THE EASTERLY MOISTURE INCREASE.
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE THE RESULT THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL OUTPUT
DIFFERS ON THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE LEVELS OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY CEILINGS BUT WILL BE MONITORING
FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. AT LEAST...A FEW CUMULUS WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE STATE. FOG HAS BEEN VERY SPORADIC THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS AND HAS NOT IMPACTED ANY TERMINAL. LEFT THE BRIEF
MENTION AROUND SUNRISE AT ANB. FRIDAY WILL SEE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 9 KTS WITH THE CUMULUS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. SOME
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP PARTICULARLY EAST BUT WILL BE VFR.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  87  69  85  69 /   0  10  10  50  40
ANNISTON    67  88  70  86  69 /   0  10  10  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  89  71  85  70 /   0  10  10  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  67  91  70  88  70 /   0   0   0  40  30
CALERA      68  89  70  86  70 /   0  10  10  50  40
AUBURN      69  88  70  85  70 /   0  20  10  50  40
MONTGOMERY  68  92  71  89  71 /   0  10  10  50  30
TROY        67  90  70  86  69 /   0  20  10  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 280013
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
713 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EASTERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO SET UP WITH WINDS IN EAST ALABAMA
ALREADY THERE. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN UP THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE TOMORROW IN SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA BUT STILL RELATIVELY DRY.

SATURDAY...WEAK UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS ELONGATED TROUGHING
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. BUMPED UP THE POPS WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE FROM EAST TO
WEST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA OF LIFT ALONG
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FEATURE AND COINCIDING WITH THE
WEDGE FRONT-LIKE AFFECTS FROM THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. BROUGHT
DOWN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE
AND EASTERLY AFFECTS.

BY SUNDAY...THE SATURDAY FEATURES BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE UPPER
LIFT PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME. COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS AND
TEMPERATURES JUST A LITTLE WARMER.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH TO REALLY TO INITIATE
CONVECTION THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT ERIKA
WILL DO BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY VERY LOW POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
AVERAGE.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. A WEAK EASTERLY
WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL AIDE IN THE EASTERLY MOISTURE INCREASE.
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE THE RESULT THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL OUTPUT
DIFFERS ON THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE LEVELS OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY CEILINGS BUT WILL BE MONITORING
FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. AT LEAST...A FEW CUMULUS WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE STATE. FOG HAS BEEN VERY SPORADIC THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS AND HAS NOT IMPACTED ANY TERMINAL. LEFT THE BRIEF
MENTION AROUND SUNRISE AT ANB. FRIDAY WILL SEE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 9 KTS WITH THE CUMULUS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. SOME
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP PARTICULARLY EAST BUT WILL BE VFR.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  87  69  85  69 /   0  10  10  50  40
ANNISTON    67  88  70  86  69 /   0  10  10  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  89  71  85  70 /   0  10  10  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  67  91  70  88  70 /   0   0   0  40  30
CALERA      68  89  70  86  70 /   0  10  10  50  40
AUBURN      69  88  70  85  70 /   0  20  10  50  40
MONTGOMERY  68  92  71  89  71 /   0  10  10  50  30
TROY        67  90  70  86  69 /   0  20  10  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 272028
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
328 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EASTERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO SET UP WITH WINDS IN EAST ALABAMA
ALREADY THERE. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN UP THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE TOMORROW IN SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA BUT STILL RELATIVELY DRY.

SATURDAY...WEAK UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS ELONGATED TROUGHING
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. BUMPED UP THE POPS WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE FROM EAST TO
WEST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA OF LIFT ALONG
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FEATURE AND COINCIDING WITH THE
WEDGE FRONT-LIKE AFFECTS FROM THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. BROUGHT
DOWN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE
AND EASTERLY AFFECTS.

BY SUNDAY...THE SATURDAY FEATURES BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE UPPER
LIFT PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME. COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS AND
TEMPERATURES JUST A LITTLE WARMER.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH TO REALLY TO INITIATE
CONVECTION THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT ERIKA
WILL DO BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY VERY LOW POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
AVERAGE.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS AS
FAIR WX CU DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA TONIGHT...AND MVFR VIS IS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT ANB AND ASN DUE TO FOG.
FRIDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 6-7KTS.

ADDITIONALLY...TROY CONTINUES TO HAVE COMMS ISSUES. TECHNICIANS ARE
ONSITE ASSESSING THE PROBLEM. WILL ISSUE TAF BUT CONTINUE WITH AN
AMEND NOT SKED UNTIL COMMS RETURN TO SERVICE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT TOI THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

14


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  87  69  85  69 /   0  10  10  40  40
ANNISTON    67  88  70  86  69 /   0  10  10  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  89  71  85  70 /   0  10  10  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  67  91  70  88  70 /   0   0   0  40  30
CALERA      68  89  70  86  70 /   0  10  10  40  40
AUBURN      69  88  70  85  70 /   0  20  10  50  40
MONTGOMERY  68  92  71  89  71 /   0  10  10  50  30
TROY        67  90  70  86  69 /   0  20  10  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 272028
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
328 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EASTERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO SET UP WITH WINDS IN EAST ALABAMA
ALREADY THERE. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN UP THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE TOMORROW IN SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA BUT STILL RELATIVELY DRY.

SATURDAY...WEAK UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS ELONGATED TROUGHING
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. BUMPED UP THE POPS WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE FROM EAST TO
WEST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA OF LIFT ALONG
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FEATURE AND COINCIDING WITH THE
WEDGE FRONT-LIKE AFFECTS FROM THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. BROUGHT
DOWN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE
AND EASTERLY AFFECTS.

BY SUNDAY...THE SATURDAY FEATURES BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE UPPER
LIFT PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME. COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS AND
TEMPERATURES JUST A LITTLE WARMER.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MUCH TO REALLY TO INITIATE
CONVECTION THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT ERIKA
WILL DO BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY VERY LOW POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
AVERAGE.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS AS
FAIR WX CU DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA TONIGHT...AND MVFR VIS IS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT ANB AND ASN DUE TO FOG.
FRIDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 6-7KTS.

ADDITIONALLY...TROY CONTINUES TO HAVE COMMS ISSUES. TECHNICIANS ARE
ONSITE ASSESSING THE PROBLEM. WILL ISSUE TAF BUT CONTINUE WITH AN
AMEND NOT SKED UNTIL COMMS RETURN TO SERVICE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT TOI THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

14


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  87  69  85  69 /   0  10  10  40  40
ANNISTON    67  88  70  86  69 /   0  10  10  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  89  71  85  70 /   0  10  10  30  40
TUSCALOOSA  67  91  70  88  70 /   0   0   0  40  30
CALERA      68  89  70  86  70 /   0  10  10  40  40
AUBURN      69  88  70  85  70 /   0  20  10  50  40
MONTGOMERY  68  92  71  89  71 /   0  10  10  50  30
TROY        67  90  70  86  69 /   0  20  10  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 271742 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1242 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY...WITH
LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO OUR NORTH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COOLER AND DRIER
THAN NORMAL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS
ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO TRENDS THIS MORNING.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS AS
FAIR WX CU DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA TONIGHT...AND MVFR VIS IS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT ANB AND ASN DUE TO FOG.
FRIDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 6-7KTS.

ADDITIONALLY...TROY CONTINUES TO HAVE COMMS ISSUES. TECHNICIANS ARE
ONSITE ASSESSING THE PROBLEM. WILL ISSUE TAF BUT CONTINUE WITH AN
AMEND NOT SKED UNTIL COMMS RETURN TO SERVICE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT TOI THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 702 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALABAMA WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S BEING
REPORTED IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
BY SUNRISE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

SFC WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE TRANSLATES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL CROSS FLORIDA AND A CUTOFF LOW IS
STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MOISTURE VALUES
STILL APPEAR TOO LOW ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH PW
VALUES BACK NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE UPPER LOW SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE MODELS
BRING WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP ERIKA FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST
AND WOULD HAVE VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK STILL REMAIN. FOR NOW WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  66  87  68  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
ANNISTON    87  67  88  69  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  86  68  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  87  67  91  70  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
CALERA      87  67  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      88  69  88  71  86 /   0   0  20  10  40
MONTGOMERY  90  68  92  70  90 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        90  67  90  70  88 /   0   0  20  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 271742 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1242 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY...WITH
LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO OUR NORTH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COOLER AND DRIER
THAN NORMAL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS
ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO TRENDS THIS MORNING.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS AS
FAIR WX CU DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA TONIGHT...AND MVFR VIS IS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT ANB AND ASN DUE TO FOG.
FRIDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 6-7KTS.

ADDITIONALLY...TROY CONTINUES TO HAVE COMMS ISSUES. TECHNICIANS ARE
ONSITE ASSESSING THE PROBLEM. WILL ISSUE TAF BUT CONTINUE WITH AN
AMEND NOT SKED UNTIL COMMS RETURN TO SERVICE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT TOI THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 702 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALABAMA WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S BEING
REPORTED IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
BY SUNRISE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

SFC WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE TRANSLATES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL CROSS FLORIDA AND A CUTOFF LOW IS
STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MOISTURE VALUES
STILL APPEAR TOO LOW ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH PW
VALUES BACK NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE UPPER LOW SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE MODELS
BRING WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP ERIKA FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST
AND WOULD HAVE VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK STILL REMAIN. FOR NOW WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  66  87  68  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
ANNISTON    87  67  88  69  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  86  68  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  87  67  91  70  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
CALERA      87  67  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      88  69  88  71  86 /   0   0  20  10  40
MONTGOMERY  90  68  92  70  90 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        90  67  90  70  88 /   0   0  20  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 271742 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1242 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY...WITH
LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO OUR NORTH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COOLER AND DRIER
THAN NORMAL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS
ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO TRENDS THIS MORNING.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS AS
FAIR WX CU DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA TONIGHT...AND MVFR VIS IS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT ANB AND ASN DUE TO FOG.
FRIDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 6-7KTS.

ADDITIONALLY...TROY CONTINUES TO HAVE COMMS ISSUES. TECHNICIANS ARE
ONSITE ASSESSING THE PROBLEM. WILL ISSUE TAF BUT CONTINUE WITH AN
AMEND NOT SKED UNTIL COMMS RETURN TO SERVICE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT TOI THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 702 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALABAMA WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S BEING
REPORTED IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
BY SUNRISE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

SFC WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE TRANSLATES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL CROSS FLORIDA AND A CUTOFF LOW IS
STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MOISTURE VALUES
STILL APPEAR TOO LOW ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH PW
VALUES BACK NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE UPPER LOW SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE MODELS
BRING WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP ERIKA FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST
AND WOULD HAVE VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK STILL REMAIN. FOR NOW WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  66  87  68  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
ANNISTON    87  67  88  69  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  86  68  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  87  67  91  70  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
CALERA      87  67  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      88  69  88  71  86 /   0   0  20  10  40
MONTGOMERY  90  68  92  70  90 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        90  67  90  70  88 /   0   0  20  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 271742 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1242 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY...WITH
LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO OUR NORTH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COOLER AND DRIER
THAN NORMAL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS
ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO TRENDS THIS MORNING.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS AS
FAIR WX CU DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA TONIGHT...AND MVFR VIS IS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT ANB AND ASN DUE TO FOG.
FRIDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 6-7KTS.

ADDITIONALLY...TROY CONTINUES TO HAVE COMMS ISSUES. TECHNICIANS ARE
ONSITE ASSESSING THE PROBLEM. WILL ISSUE TAF BUT CONTINUE WITH AN
AMEND NOT SKED UNTIL COMMS RETURN TO SERVICE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT TOI THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 702 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALABAMA WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S BEING
REPORTED IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
BY SUNRISE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

SFC WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE TRANSLATES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL CROSS FLORIDA AND A CUTOFF LOW IS
STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MOISTURE VALUES
STILL APPEAR TOO LOW ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH PW
VALUES BACK NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE UPPER LOW SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE MODELS
BRING WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP ERIKA FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST
AND WOULD HAVE VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK STILL REMAIN. FOR NOW WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  66  87  68  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
ANNISTON    87  67  88  69  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  86  68  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  87  67  91  70  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
CALERA      87  67  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      88  69  88  71  86 /   0   0  20  10  40
MONTGOMERY  90  68  92  70  90 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        90  67  90  70  88 /   0   0  20  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 271643 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1143 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY...WITH
LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO OUR NORTH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COOLER AND DRIER
THAN NORMAL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS
ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO TRENDS THIS MORNING.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EASTWARD SOME TONIGHT. WILL
START TO SEE ENOUGH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS ASN/ANB FOR SOME MVFR FOG
TO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE TODAY...LOOK FOR ONLY A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS POSSIBLE AROUND 5-6 KFT.

ON A SIDE NOTE...TROY IS STILL HAVING COMMS ISSUES. SO WILL ISSUE
TAF BUT CONTINUE WITH AN AMEND NOT SKED UNTIL ITS COMMS RETURN TO
SERVICE AS WE HAVE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE.

08


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 702 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALABAMA WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S BEING
REPORTED IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
BY SUNRISE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

SFC WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE TRANSLATES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL CROSS FLORIDA AND A CUTOFF LOW IS
STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MOISTURE VALUES
STILL APPEAR TOO LOW ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH PW
VALUES BACK NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE UPPER LOW SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE MODELS
BRING WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP ERIKA FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST
AND WOULD HAVE VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK STILL REMAIN. FOR NOW WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  66  87  68  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
ANNISTON    87  67  88  69  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  86  68  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  87  67  91  70  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
CALERA      87  67  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      88  69  88  71  86 /   0   0  20  10  40
MONTGOMERY  90  68  92  70  90 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        90  67  90  70  88 /   0   0  20  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 271643 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1143 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY...WITH
LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO OUR NORTH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COOLER AND DRIER
THAN NORMAL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS
ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO TRENDS THIS MORNING.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EASTWARD SOME TONIGHT. WILL
START TO SEE ENOUGH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS ASN/ANB FOR SOME MVFR FOG
TO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE TODAY...LOOK FOR ONLY A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS POSSIBLE AROUND 5-6 KFT.

ON A SIDE NOTE...TROY IS STILL HAVING COMMS ISSUES. SO WILL ISSUE
TAF BUT CONTINUE WITH AN AMEND NOT SKED UNTIL ITS COMMS RETURN TO
SERVICE AS WE HAVE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE.

08


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 702 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALABAMA WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S BEING
REPORTED IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
BY SUNRISE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

SFC WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE TRANSLATES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL CROSS FLORIDA AND A CUTOFF LOW IS
STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MOISTURE VALUES
STILL APPEAR TOO LOW ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH PW
VALUES BACK NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE UPPER LOW SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE MODELS
BRING WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP ERIKA FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST
AND WOULD HAVE VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK STILL REMAIN. FOR NOW WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  66  87  68  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
ANNISTON    87  67  88  69  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  86  68  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  87  67  91  70  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
CALERA      87  67  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      88  69  88  71  86 /   0   0  20  10  40
MONTGOMERY  90  68  92  70  90 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        90  67  90  70  88 /   0   0  20  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 271202 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
702 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALABAMA WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S BEING
REPORTED IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
BY SUNRISE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

SFC WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE TRANSLATES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL CROSS FLORIDA AND A CUTOFF LOW IS
STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MOISTURE VALUES
STILL APPEAR TOO LOW ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH PW
VALUES BACK NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE UPPER LOW SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE MODELS
BRING WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP ERIKA FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST
AND WOULD HAVE VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK STILL REMAIN. FOR NOW WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EASTWARD SOME TONIGHT. WILL
START TO SEE ENOUGH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS ASN/ANB FOR SOME MVFR FOG
TO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE TODAY...LOOK FOR ONLY A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS POSSIBLE AROUND 5-6 KFT.

ON A SIDE NOTE...TROY IS STILL HAVING COMMS ISSUES. SO WILL ISSUE
TAF BUT CONTINUE WITH AN AMEND NOT SKED UNTIL ITS COMMS RETURN TO
SERVICE AS WE HAVE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALABAMA WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S BEING
REPORTED IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
BY SUNRISE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

SFC WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE TRANSLATES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL CROSS FLORIDA AND A CUTOFF LOW IS
STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MOISTURE VALUES
STILL APPEAR TOO LOW ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH PW
VALUES BACK NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE UPPER LOW SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE MODELS
BRING WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP ERIKA FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST
AND WOULD HAVE VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK STILL REMAIN. FOR NOW WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  66  87  68  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
ANNISTON    87  67  88  69  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  86  68  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  87  67  91  70  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
CALERA      87  67  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      88  69  88  71  86 /   0   0  20  10  40
MONTGOMERY  90  68  92  70  90 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        90  67  90  70  88 /   0   0  20  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/19




000
FXUS64 KBMX 271202 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
702 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALABAMA WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S BEING
REPORTED IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
BY SUNRISE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

SFC WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE TRANSLATES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL CROSS FLORIDA AND A CUTOFF LOW IS
STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MOISTURE VALUES
STILL APPEAR TOO LOW ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH PW
VALUES BACK NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE UPPER LOW SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE MODELS
BRING WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP ERIKA FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST
AND WOULD HAVE VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK STILL REMAIN. FOR NOW WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EASTWARD SOME TONIGHT. WILL
START TO SEE ENOUGH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS ASN/ANB FOR SOME MVFR FOG
TO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE TODAY...LOOK FOR ONLY A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS POSSIBLE AROUND 5-6 KFT.

ON A SIDE NOTE...TROY IS STILL HAVING COMMS ISSUES. SO WILL ISSUE
TAF BUT CONTINUE WITH AN AMEND NOT SKED UNTIL ITS COMMS RETURN TO
SERVICE AS WE HAVE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALABAMA WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S BEING
REPORTED IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
BY SUNRISE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

SFC WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE TRANSLATES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL CROSS FLORIDA AND A CUTOFF LOW IS
STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MOISTURE VALUES
STILL APPEAR TOO LOW ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH PW
VALUES BACK NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE UPPER LOW SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE MODELS
BRING WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP ERIKA FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST
AND WOULD HAVE VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK STILL REMAIN. FOR NOW WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  66  87  68  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
ANNISTON    87  67  88  69  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  86  68  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  87  67  91  70  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
CALERA      87  67  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      88  69  88  71  86 /   0   0  20  10  40
MONTGOMERY  90  68  92  70  90 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        90  67  90  70  88 /   0   0  20  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/19





000
FXUS64 KBMX 271202 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
702 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALABAMA WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S BEING
REPORTED IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
BY SUNRISE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

SFC WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE TRANSLATES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL CROSS FLORIDA AND A CUTOFF LOW IS
STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MOISTURE VALUES
STILL APPEAR TOO LOW ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH PW
VALUES BACK NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE UPPER LOW SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE MODELS
BRING WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP ERIKA FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST
AND WOULD HAVE VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK STILL REMAIN. FOR NOW WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EASTWARD SOME TONIGHT. WILL
START TO SEE ENOUGH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS ASN/ANB FOR SOME MVFR FOG
TO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE TODAY...LOOK FOR ONLY A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS POSSIBLE AROUND 5-6 KFT.

ON A SIDE NOTE...TROY IS STILL HAVING COMMS ISSUES. SO WILL ISSUE
TAF BUT CONTINUE WITH AN AMEND NOT SKED UNTIL ITS COMMS RETURN TO
SERVICE AS WE HAVE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALABAMA WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S BEING
REPORTED IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
BY SUNRISE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

SFC WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE TRANSLATES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL CROSS FLORIDA AND A CUTOFF LOW IS
STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MOISTURE VALUES
STILL APPEAR TOO LOW ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH PW
VALUES BACK NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE UPPER LOW SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE MODELS
BRING WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP ERIKA FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST
AND WOULD HAVE VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK STILL REMAIN. FOR NOW WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  66  87  68  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
ANNISTON    87  67  88  69  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  86  68  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  87  67  91  70  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
CALERA      87  67  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      88  69  88  71  86 /   0   0  20  10  40
MONTGOMERY  90  68  92  70  90 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        90  67  90  70  88 /   0   0  20  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/19




000
FXUS64 KBMX 271202 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
702 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALABAMA WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S BEING
REPORTED IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
BY SUNRISE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

SFC WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE TRANSLATES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL CROSS FLORIDA AND A CUTOFF LOW IS
STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MOISTURE VALUES
STILL APPEAR TOO LOW ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH PW
VALUES BACK NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE UPPER LOW SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE MODELS
BRING WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP ERIKA FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST
AND WOULD HAVE VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK STILL REMAIN. FOR NOW WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EASTWARD SOME TONIGHT. WILL
START TO SEE ENOUGH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS ASN/ANB FOR SOME MVFR FOG
TO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE TODAY...LOOK FOR ONLY A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS POSSIBLE AROUND 5-6 KFT.

ON A SIDE NOTE...TROY IS STILL HAVING COMMS ISSUES. SO WILL ISSUE
TAF BUT CONTINUE WITH AN AMEND NOT SKED UNTIL ITS COMMS RETURN TO
SERVICE AS WE HAVE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALABAMA WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S BEING
REPORTED IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
BY SUNRISE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

SFC WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE TRANSLATES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL CROSS FLORIDA AND A CUTOFF LOW IS
STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MOISTURE VALUES
STILL APPEAR TOO LOW ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH PW
VALUES BACK NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE UPPER LOW SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE MODELS
BRING WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP ERIKA FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST
AND WOULD HAVE VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK STILL REMAIN. FOR NOW WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  66  87  68  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
ANNISTON    87  67  88  69  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  86  68  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  87  67  91  70  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
CALERA      87  67  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      88  69  88  71  86 /   0   0  20  10  40
MONTGOMERY  90  68  92  70  90 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        90  67  90  70  88 /   0   0  20  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/19





000
FXUS64 KBMX 270858 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALABAMA WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S BEING
REPORTED IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
BY SUNRISE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

SFC WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE TRANSLATES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL CROSS FLORIDA AND A CUTOFF LOW IS
STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MOISTURE VALUES
STILL APPEAR TOO LOW ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH PW
VALUES BACK NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE UPPER LOW SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE MODELS
BRING WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP ERIKA FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST
AND WOULD HAVE VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK STILL REMAIN. FOR NOW WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY HIT NEAR 60 DEGREES. THEREFORE...FOG
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR TOO RESTRICTIVE. WITH THAT SAID...A
FEW LOW LYING...RURAL...OR LOCATIONS NEAR WATER MAY BRIEFLY HAVE
SOME GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE. ADDED A HOUR OR SO AT TOI. SPEAKING
OF TOI...ADDED AMD NOT SKED DUE TO AN OUTAGE THAT WILL BE FIXED IN
THE MORNING. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY FROM THE
EAST. THIS MOISTURE IS GENERALLY IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE. ADDED SCT
WITH NO CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS NORTH TO EAST AROUND 6 -7 KTS
AFTER 15Z.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  66  87  68  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
ANNISTON    87  67  88  69  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  86  68  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  87  67  91  70  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
CALERA      87  67  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      88  69  88  71  86 /   0   0  20  10  40
MONTGOMERY  90  68  92  70  90 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        90  67  90  70  88 /   0   0  20  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 270858 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALABAMA WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S BEING
REPORTED IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
BY SUNRISE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

SFC WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE TRANSLATES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL CROSS FLORIDA AND A CUTOFF LOW IS
STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MOISTURE VALUES
STILL APPEAR TOO LOW ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH PW
VALUES BACK NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE UPPER LOW SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE MODELS
BRING WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP ERIKA FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST
AND WOULD HAVE VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK STILL REMAIN. FOR NOW WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY HIT NEAR 60 DEGREES. THEREFORE...FOG
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR TOO RESTRICTIVE. WITH THAT SAID...A
FEW LOW LYING...RURAL...OR LOCATIONS NEAR WATER MAY BRIEFLY HAVE
SOME GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE. ADDED A HOUR OR SO AT TOI. SPEAKING
OF TOI...ADDED AMD NOT SKED DUE TO AN OUTAGE THAT WILL BE FIXED IN
THE MORNING. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY FROM THE
EAST. THIS MOISTURE IS GENERALLY IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE. ADDED SCT
WITH NO CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS NORTH TO EAST AROUND 6 -7 KTS
AFTER 15Z.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  66  87  68  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
ANNISTON    87  67  88  69  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  86  68  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  87  67  91  70  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
CALERA      87  67  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      88  69  88  71  86 /   0   0  20  10  40
MONTGOMERY  90  68  92  70  90 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        90  67  90  70  88 /   0   0  20  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 270858 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALABAMA WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S BEING
REPORTED IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
BY SUNRISE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

SFC WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE TRANSLATES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL CROSS FLORIDA AND A CUTOFF LOW IS
STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MOISTURE VALUES
STILL APPEAR TOO LOW ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH PW
VALUES BACK NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE UPPER LOW SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE MODELS
BRING WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP ERIKA FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST
AND WOULD HAVE VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK STILL REMAIN. FOR NOW WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY HIT NEAR 60 DEGREES. THEREFORE...FOG
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR TOO RESTRICTIVE. WITH THAT SAID...A
FEW LOW LYING...RURAL...OR LOCATIONS NEAR WATER MAY BRIEFLY HAVE
SOME GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE. ADDED A HOUR OR SO AT TOI. SPEAKING
OF TOI...ADDED AMD NOT SKED DUE TO AN OUTAGE THAT WILL BE FIXED IN
THE MORNING. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY FROM THE
EAST. THIS MOISTURE IS GENERALLY IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE. ADDED SCT
WITH NO CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS NORTH TO EAST AROUND 6 -7 KTS
AFTER 15Z.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  66  87  68  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
ANNISTON    87  67  88  69  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  86  68  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  87  67  91  70  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
CALERA      87  67  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      88  69  88  71  86 /   0   0  20  10  40
MONTGOMERY  90  68  92  70  90 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        90  67  90  70  88 /   0   0  20  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 270833
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALABAMA WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S BEING
REPORTED IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
BY SUNRISE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

SFC WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE TRANSLATES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL CROSS FLORIDA AND A CUTOFF LOW IS
STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MOISTURE VALUES
STILL APPEAR TOO LOW ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH PW
VALUES BACK NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE UPPER LOW SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE MODELS
BRING WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP ERIKA FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST
AND WOULD HAVE VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK STILL REMAIN. FOR NOW WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY HIT NEAR 60 DEGREES. THEREFORE...FOG
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR TOO RESTRICTIVE. WITH THAT SAID...A
FEW LOW LYING...RURAL...OR LOCATIONS NEAR WATER MAY BRIEFLY HAVE
SOME GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE. ADDED A HOUR OR SO AT TOI. SPEAKING
OF TOI...ADDED AMD NOT SKED DUE TO AN OUTAGE THAT WILL BE FIXED IN
THE MORNING. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY FROM THE
EAST. THIS MOISTURE IS GENERALLY IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE. ADDED SCT
WITH NO CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS NORTH TO EAST AROUND 6 -7 KTS
AFTER 15Z.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  66  87  68  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
ANNISTON    87  67  88  69  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  86  68  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  87  67  91  70  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
CALERA      87  67  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      88  69  88  71  86 /   0   0  20  10  40
MONTGOMERY  90  68  92  70  90 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        90  67  90  70  88 /   0   0  20  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 270833
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ALABAMA WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S BEING
REPORTED IN THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
BY SUNRISE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

SFC WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE TRANSLATES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL CROSS FLORIDA AND A CUTOFF LOW IS
STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MOISTURE VALUES
STILL APPEAR TOO LOW ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT MUCH PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH PW
VALUES BACK NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE UPPER LOW SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE MODELS
BRING WHAT IS CURRENTLY TS ERIKA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP ERIKA FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST
AND WOULD HAVE VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK STILL REMAIN. FOR NOW WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS IN THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY HIT NEAR 60 DEGREES. THEREFORE...FOG
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR TOO RESTRICTIVE. WITH THAT SAID...A
FEW LOW LYING...RURAL...OR LOCATIONS NEAR WATER MAY BRIEFLY HAVE
SOME GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE. ADDED A HOUR OR SO AT TOI. SPEAKING
OF TOI...ADDED AMD NOT SKED DUE TO AN OUTAGE THAT WILL BE FIXED IN
THE MORNING. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY FROM THE
EAST. THIS MOISTURE IS GENERALLY IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE. ADDED SCT
WITH NO CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS NORTH TO EAST AROUND 6 -7 KTS
AFTER 15Z.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  66  87  68  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
ANNISTON    87  67  88  69  86 /   0   0  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  86  68  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  87  67  91  70  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
CALERA      87  67  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
AUBURN      88  69  88  71  86 /   0   0  20  10  40
MONTGOMERY  90  68  92  70  90 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        90  67  90  70  88 /   0   0  20  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 270403
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1103 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOT MANY CHANGES MADE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AMAZING DAY FOR
AUGUST WITH HIGHS SO FAR RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S...LOW HUMIDITY AND A NICE NORTHERLY BREEZE. COOL AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WE ACTUALLY HAD A COUPLE OF
SITES COME IN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S THIS MORNING. TOMORROW
MAYBE JUST A LITTLE BIT WARMER BUT OVERALL JUST AS NICE.

SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
EASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER AND THE SUGGESTION
IS A FEW MORE SHOWERS COULD POP UP FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. SLIGHTLY EXPANDED THE POPS FOR SATURDAY. LEFT
FRIDAY DRY BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE EAST IF
THE TRENDS CONTINUE. A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS STILL SEEM REASONABLE. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES 80S TO LOW 90S. LOWS 60S TO LOW 70S.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF EITHER
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH TO
INITIATE CONVECTION BUT THE UNCERTAINTY OF ERIKA IS ALSO PLAYING A
ROLE. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 90/70 RANGE.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY HIT NEAR 60 DEGREES. THEREFORE...FOG
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR TOO RESTRICTIVE. WITH THAT SAID...A
FEW LOW LYING...RURAL...OR LOCATIONS NEAR WATER MAY BRIEFLY HAVE
SOME GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE. ADDED A HOUR OR SO AT TOI. SPEAKING
OF TOI...ADDED AMD NOT SKED DUE TO AN OUTAGE THAT WILL BE FIXED IN
THE MORNING. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY FROM THE
EAST. THIS MOISTURE IS GENERALLY IN THE 4-7K FT RANGE. ADDED SCT
WITH NO CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS NORTH TO EAST AROUND 6 -7 KTS
AFTER 15Z.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  85  65  87  68 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    59  87  66  88  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  61  87  67  89  70 /   0   0  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  61  87  66  91  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      61  87  66  89  69 /   0   0  10   0   0
AUBURN      64  87  68  88  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  62  90  67  92  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        61  90  66  91  69 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 270013
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
713 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOT MANY CHANGES MADE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AMAZING DAY FOR
AUGUST WITH HIGHS SO FAR RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S...LOW HUMIDITY AND A NICE NORTHERLY BREEZE. COOL AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WE ACTUALLY HAD A COUPLE OF
SITES COME IN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S THIS MORNING. TOMORROW
MAYBE JUST A LITTLE BIT WARMER BUT OVERALL JUST AS NICE.

SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
EASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER AND THE SUGGESTION
IS A FEW MORE SHOWERS COULD POP UP FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. SLIGHTLY EXPANDED THE POPS FOR SATURDAY. LEFT
FRIDAY DRY BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE EAST IF
THE TRENDS CONTINUE. A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS STILL SEEM REASONABLE. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES 80S TO LOW 90S. LOWS 60S TO LOW 70S.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF EITHER
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH TO
INITIATE CONVECTION BUT THE UNCERTAINTY OF ERIKA IS ALSO PLAYING A
ROLE. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 90/70 RANGE.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WINDS SWING AROUND TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST
DIRECTION ON THURSDAY BUT WILL REMAIN 9 KTS OR LESS. THE OVERALL
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY BUT MAY SEE HINTS THAT SOME MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASING FROM THE EAST. DID NOT ADD MENTION OF FOG...BUT PATCHY
DEVELOPMENT COULD CERTAINLY TAKE PLACE AND WILL MONITOR LOW LYING
AND WATER BODIES LATER THIS EVENING.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  85  65  87  68 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    59  87  66  88  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  61  87  67  89  70 /   0   0  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  61  87  66  91  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      61  87  66  89  69 /   0   0  10   0   0
AUBURN      64  87  68  88  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  62  90  67  92  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        61  90  66  91  69 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 270013
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
713 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOT MANY CHANGES MADE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AMAZING DAY FOR
AUGUST WITH HIGHS SO FAR RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S...LOW HUMIDITY AND A NICE NORTHERLY BREEZE. COOL AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WE ACTUALLY HAD A COUPLE OF
SITES COME IN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S THIS MORNING. TOMORROW
MAYBE JUST A LITTLE BIT WARMER BUT OVERALL JUST AS NICE.

SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
EASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER AND THE SUGGESTION
IS A FEW MORE SHOWERS COULD POP UP FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. SLIGHTLY EXPANDED THE POPS FOR SATURDAY. LEFT
FRIDAY DRY BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE EAST IF
THE TRENDS CONTINUE. A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS STILL SEEM REASONABLE. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES 80S TO LOW 90S. LOWS 60S TO LOW 70S.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF EITHER
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH TO
INITIATE CONVECTION BUT THE UNCERTAINTY OF ERIKA IS ALSO PLAYING A
ROLE. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 90/70 RANGE.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WINDS SWING AROUND TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST
DIRECTION ON THURSDAY BUT WILL REMAIN 9 KTS OR LESS. THE OVERALL
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY BUT MAY SEE HINTS THAT SOME MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASING FROM THE EAST. DID NOT ADD MENTION OF FOG...BUT PATCHY
DEVELOPMENT COULD CERTAINLY TAKE PLACE AND WILL MONITOR LOW LYING
AND WATER BODIES LATER THIS EVENING.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  85  65  87  68 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    59  87  66  88  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  61  87  67  89  70 /   0   0  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  61  87  66  91  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      61  87  66  89  69 /   0   0  10   0   0
AUBURN      64  87  68  88  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  62  90  67  92  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        61  90  66  91  69 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 270013
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
713 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOT MANY CHANGES MADE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AMAZING DAY FOR
AUGUST WITH HIGHS SO FAR RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S...LOW HUMIDITY AND A NICE NORTHERLY BREEZE. COOL AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WE ACTUALLY HAD A COUPLE OF
SITES COME IN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S THIS MORNING. TOMORROW
MAYBE JUST A LITTLE BIT WARMER BUT OVERALL JUST AS NICE.

SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
EASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER AND THE SUGGESTION
IS A FEW MORE SHOWERS COULD POP UP FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. SLIGHTLY EXPANDED THE POPS FOR SATURDAY. LEFT
FRIDAY DRY BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE EAST IF
THE TRENDS CONTINUE. A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS STILL SEEM REASONABLE. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES 80S TO LOW 90S. LOWS 60S TO LOW 70S.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF EITHER
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH TO
INITIATE CONVECTION BUT THE UNCERTAINTY OF ERIKA IS ALSO PLAYING A
ROLE. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 90/70 RANGE.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WINDS SWING AROUND TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST
DIRECTION ON THURSDAY BUT WILL REMAIN 9 KTS OR LESS. THE OVERALL
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY BUT MAY SEE HINTS THAT SOME MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASING FROM THE EAST. DID NOT ADD MENTION OF FOG...BUT PATCHY
DEVELOPMENT COULD CERTAINLY TAKE PLACE AND WILL MONITOR LOW LYING
AND WATER BODIES LATER THIS EVENING.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY WILL CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  85  65  87  68 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANNISTON    59  87  66  88  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  61  87  67  89  70 /   0   0  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  61  87  66  91  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      61  87  66  89  69 /   0   0  10   0   0
AUBURN      64  87  68  88  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  62  90  67  92  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        61  90  66  91  69 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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