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000
FXUS64 KBMX 311135
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
635 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FRONT NUMBER TWO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY WITH SOME
PRE-FRONTAL WEAK SHOWERS AT PRESENT AS THE MAIN RIDGE SINKS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY OUT OF CANADA. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS
MEAGER...THE RADAR IS NOTING A FEW SHOWERS HERE AND THERE WITH
THAT TREND TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TODAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE. THE MAIN STORY REMAINS THE
STRONG 1030 PLUS RIDGE THAT WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TIGHT
GRADIENTS AND NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA. SO WILL DEFINITELY
NEED TO BUNDLE UP FOR TONIGHT AS THE TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL
NOT BE A TREAT. WITH THE COLD TREND NOT ABATING...WILL ISSUE A
FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
LIVINGSTON...TO CENTREVILLE...TO WETUMPKA...TO LAFAYETTE.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ANY BETTER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
GRADIENTS LIGHTEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LITTLE WIND...FROST WILL
ALSO BE AN ISSUE. SO WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH (B/C FURTHER OUT
IN TIME) FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...BUT FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH A VENGEANCE FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIME FRAME AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS OVER ALABAMA SHIFTING TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC. BY THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST...RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO
THE STATE.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 20Z WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
20-25KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS
ARE ALSO HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE KEPT THE TAFS VFR FOR NOW...BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 20Z.
THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KANB.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BIBB...BLOUNT...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...
CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...FAYETTE...
GREENE...HALE...JEFFERSON...LAMAR...MARION...PICKENS...
RANDOLPH...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...TALLADEGA...
TALLAPOOSA...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 311018
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
518 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FRONT NUMBER TWO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TODAY WITH SOME
PRE-FRONTAL WEAK SHOWERS AT PRESENT AS THE MAIN RIDGE SINKS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY OUT OF CANADA. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS
MEAGER...THE RADAR IS NOTING A FEW SHOWERS HERE AND THERE WITH
THAT TREND TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TODAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE. THE MAIN STORY REMAINS THE
STRONG 1030 PLUS RIDGE THAT WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TIGHT
GRADIENTS AND NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA. SO WILL DEFINITELY
NEED TO BUNDLE UP FOR TONIGHT AS THE TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL
NOT BE A TREAT. WITH THE COLD TREND NOT ABATING...WILL ISSUE A
FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
LIVINGSTON...TO CENTREVILLE...TO WETUMPKA...TO LAFAYETTE.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ANY BETTER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
GRADIENTS LIGHTEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LITTLE WIND...FROST WILL
ALSO BE AN ISSUE. SO WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH (B/C FURTHER OUT
IN TIME) FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...BUT FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH A VENGEANCE FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIME FRAME AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS OVER ALABAMA SHIFTING TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC. BY THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST...RAIN CHANCES RETURN
BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO
THE STATE.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO AVIATION ISSUES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRY UP ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY...INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS
AFTER 18Z...THEN 15 TO 18 KTS BY 21Z NORTH AND 00Z SOUTH. WINDS REMAIN
BRISK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  31  50  29  57 /  30  10  10   0   0
ANNISTON    64  31  50  30  56 /  20  10  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  64  32  51  30  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  67  33  53  31  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      66  33  52  32  58 /  10  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      68  34  52  33  59 /  10  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  71  35  55  32  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        71  34  54  32  59 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM 10 PM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH 9 AM SUNDAY
MORNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BIBB...BLOUNT...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...
CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...FAYETTE...
GREENE...HALE...JEFFERSON...LAMAR...MARION...PICKENS...
RANDOLPH...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...TALLADEGA...
TALLAPOOSA...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

$$

08/16







000
FXUS64 KBMX 310459
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1159 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE LAST OF THE MILD EVENINGS IS UPON US...AHEAD OF A SERIES OF
EVENTS THAT WILL USHER THE FIRST REAL COLD SNAP OF THE SEASON TO
ALABAMA. LATER TONIGHT A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS A
POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE OR TWO INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO MAINLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...THE REAL STORY WILL BE
THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL BRING WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  UPDATES ARE OUT.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO AVIATION ISSUES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRY UP ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY...INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS
AFTER 18Z...THEN 15 TO 18 KTS BY 21Z NORTH AND 00Z SOUTH. WINDS REMAIN
BRISK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 310459
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1159 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE LAST OF THE MILD EVENINGS IS UPON US...AHEAD OF A SERIES OF
EVENTS THAT WILL USHER THE FIRST REAL COLD SNAP OF THE SEASON TO
ALABAMA. LATER TONIGHT A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS A
POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE OR TWO INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO MAINLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...THE REAL STORY WILL BE
THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL BRING WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  UPDATES ARE OUT.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO AVIATION ISSUES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRY UP ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY...INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS
AFTER 18Z...THEN 15 TO 18 KTS BY 21Z NORTH AND 00Z SOUTH. WINDS REMAIN
BRISK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 310216
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
900 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE LAST OF THE MILD EVENINGS IS UPON US...AHEAD OF A SERIES OF
EVENTS THAT WILL USHER THE FIRST REAL COLD SNAP OF THE SEASON TO
ALABAMA. LATER TONIGHT A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS A
POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE OR TWO INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO MAINLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...THE REAL STORY WILL BE
THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL BRING WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  UPDATES ARE OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO AVIATION ISSUES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FOG THAT FORMED
NEAR ANB THIS MORNING IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRY UP ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY...INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS AFTER 18Z.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KBMX 302357
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
657 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.

A SERIES OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES WILL COMBINE TO CARVE OUT AN
ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...
A VERY STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL COME SOUTHWARD AND BEGIN
AFFECTING THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.75 INCHES...LOW HEIGHTS WITH
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. PWAT VALUES WILL ABRUPTLY DROP
BELOW 0.25 INCHES FRIDAY EVENING AS COLD AIR PLUNGES SOUTHWARD.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S SATURDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILL VALUES WELL INTO THE 20S.
SINCE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED...FROST WILL NOT OCCUR
THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK IN SOME AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES MUCH CLOSER
TO THE CWA...AND THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS COULD SEE LOW OF 27-29F.
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD FROST FOR MOST AREAS. A
FREEZE WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BY TOMORROW FOR OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
ANCHORED NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO ALABAMA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SIZABLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE
70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO AVIATION ISSUES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FOG THAT FORMED
NEAR ANB THIS MORNING IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRY UP ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY...INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS AFTER 18Z.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 302000 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
259 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.

A SERIES OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES WILL COMBINE TO CARVE OUT AN
ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...
A VERY STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL COME SOUTHWARD AND BEGIN
AFFECTING THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.75 INCHES...LOW HEIGHTS WITH
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. PWAT VALUES WILL ABRUPTLY DROP
BELOW 0.25 INCHES FRIDAY EVENING AS COLD AIR PLUNGES SOUTHWARD.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S SATURDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILL VALUES WELL INTO THE 20S.
SINCE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED...FROST WILL NOT OCCUR
THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK IN SOME AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES MUCH CLOSER
TO THE CWA...AND THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS COULD SEE LOW OF 27-29F.
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD FROST FOR MOST AREAS. A
FREEZE WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BY TOMORROW FOR OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
ANCHORED NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO ALABAMA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SIZABLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE
70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.


87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...NO AVIATION ISSUES
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FOG THAT FORMED NEAR ANB THIS
MORNING IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO DRY UP ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  65  33  52  29 /   0  20   0   0   0
ANNISTON    40  66  33  52  31 /   0  20   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  43  66  33  53  31 /   0  20   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  42  68  34  55  31 /   0  10   0   0   0
CALERA      44  67  34  53  33 /   0  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      44  69  34  52  35 /   0  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  42  71  36  57  34 /   0  10   0   0   0
TROY        40  72  36  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/88









000
FXUS64 KBMX 301957
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
257 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.

A SERIES OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES WILL COMBINED TO CARVE OUT AN
ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...
A VERY STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL COME SOUTHWARD AND BEGIN
AFFECTING THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.75 INCHES...LOW HEIGHTS WITH
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. PWAT VALUES WILL ABRUPTLY DROP
BELOW 0.25 INCHES FRIDAY EVENING AS COLD AIR PLUNGES SOUTHWARD.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S SATURDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILL VALUES WELL INTO THE 20S.
SINCE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED...FROST WILL NOT OCCUR
THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK IN SOME AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES MUCH CLOSER
TO THE CWA...AND THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS COULD SEE LOW OF 27-29F.
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD FROST FOR MOST AREAS. A
FREEZE WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BY TOMORROW FOR OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
ANCHORED NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO ALABAMA. RELATIVELY DRY AIR SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SIZABLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE
70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.


87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...NO AVIATION ISSUES
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FOG THAT FORMED NEAR ANB THIS
MORNING IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO DRY UP ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     39  65  33  52  29 /   0  20   0   0   0
ANNISTON    40  66  33  52  31 /   0  20   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  43  66  33  53  31 /   0  20   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  42  68  34  55  31 /   0  10   0   0   0
CALERA      44  67  34  53  33 /   0  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      44  69  34  52  35 /   0  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  42  71  36  57  34 /   0  10   0   0   0
TROY        40  72  36  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/88







000
FXUS64 KBMX 301810
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
110 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE SURFACE FRONT THIS MORNING IS CLEAR DOWN TO THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH DECENT NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT. THERE STILL
REMAINS A SPREAD IN DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA AS DRIER AIR
ATTEMPTS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. DUE TO THIS DIFFERENCE IN
MOISTURE. SOME AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 59
WILL SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...MAY NOT HAVE AN ISSUE ACROSS PIKE/BARBOUR COUNTIES AS
THEY HAVE NOT CLEARED OUT YET WITH A PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST 9 KFT
CIGS. A COOL DAY MINUS THE RAIN FROM YESTERDAY WILL BE ON TAP WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

EXPECTING ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT TO SINK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. TODAY OUT OF CANADA. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS ALABAMA WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH TIME TO RECOVER BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND ONLY MEAGER MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH SHALLOW...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST PART OF THE STATE
WITH THE PASSAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE MAIN STORY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT 1030 PLUS RIDGE THAT WILL
SINK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH TIGHT GRADIENTS AND NORTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE AFTER TRICK OR TREAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DROPPING OFF NICELY AFTER SUNSET. NOT ONLY WILL IT GET COLDER
FRIDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IT WILL BE WINDY DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. WHILE NOT WINDY ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY...WE WILL
SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR SATURDAY MORNING EARLY FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. WILL DEFINITELY NEED THE JACKET/WIND
BREAKER ON SATURDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE ON SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND
LIGHTER GRADIENTS/WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH CLEAR SKIES.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS OVER ALABAMA
SHIFTING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. BY THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST...
RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE STATE.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...NO AVIATION ISSUES
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FOG THAT FORMED NEAR ANB THIS
MORNING IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO DRY UP ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 301132
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
632 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE SURFACE FRONT THIS MORNING IS CLEAR DOWN TO THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH DECENT NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT. THERE STILL
REMAINS A SPREAD IN DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA AS DRIER AIR
ATTEMPTS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. DUE TO THIS DIFFERENCE IN
MOISTURE. SOME AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 59
WILL SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...MAY NOT HAVE AN ISSUE ACROSS PIKE/BARBOUR COUNTIES AS
THEY HAVE NOT CLEARED OUT YET WITH A PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST 9 KFT
CIGS. A COOL DAY MINUS THE RAIN FROM YESTERDAY WILL BE ON TAP WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

EXPECTING ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT TO SINK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. TODAY OUT OF CANADA. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS ALABAMA WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH TIME TO RECOVER BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND ONLY MEAGER MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH SHALLOW...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST PART OF THE STATE
WITH THE PASSAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE MAIN STORY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT 1030 PLUS RIDGE THAT WILL
SINK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH TIGHT GRADIENTS AND NORTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE AFTER TRICK OR TREAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DROPPING OFF NICELY AFTER SUNSET. NOT ONLY WILL IT GET COLDER
FRIDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IT WILL BE WINDY DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. WHILE NOT WINDY ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY...WE WILL
SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR SATURDAY MORNING EARLY FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. WILL DEFINITELY NEED THE JACKET/WIND
BREAKER ON SATURDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE ON SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND
LIGHTER GRADIENTS/WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH CLEAR SKIES.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS OVER ALABAMA
SHIFTING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. BY THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST...
RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE STATE.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS SITES EXCEPT FOR
KANB WHERE CONDITIONS ARE LIFR. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH THESE LIFR CONDITIONS MIXING
OUT AROUND 14Z. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
TAF CYCLE.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 301009
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
509 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE SURFACE FRONT THIS MORNING IS CLEAR DOWN TO THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH DECENT NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT. THERE STILL
REMAINS A SPREAD IN DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA AS DRIER AIR
ATTEMPTS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. DUE TO THIS DIFFERENCE IN
MOISTURE. SOME AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 59
WILL SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...MAY NOT HAVE AN ISSUE ACROSS PIKE/BARBOUR COUNTIES AS
THEY HAVE NOT CLEARED OUT YET WITH A PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST 9 KFT
CIGS. A COOL DAY MINUS THE RAIN FROM YESTERDAY WILL BE ON TAP WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

EXPECTING ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT TO SINK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. TODAY OUT OF CANADA. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS ALABAMA WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH TIME TO RECOVER BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND ONLY MEAGER MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH SHALLOW...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST PART OF THE STATE
WITH THE PASSAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE MAIN STORY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT 1030 PLUS RIDGE THAT WILL
SINK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH TIGHT GRADIENTS AND NORTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE AFTER TRICK OR TREAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DROPPING OFF NICELY AFTER SUNSET. NOT ONLY WILL IT GET COLDER
FRIDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IT WILL BE WINDY DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. WHILE NOT WINDY ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY...WE WILL
SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR SATURDAY MORNING EARLY FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. WILL DEFINITELY NEED THE JACKET/WIND
BREAKER ON SATURDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR FROST WILL BE ON SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND
LIGHTER GRADIENTS/WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH CLEAR SKIES.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS OVER ALABAMA
SHIFTING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. BY THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST...
RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE STATE.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE DRIER AIR IS COMING...JUST NOT QUICK ENOUGH. SOME DENSE FOG
HAS ALREADY SET UP SHOP AT ANB...AND WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MGM AND
TOI THROUGH 12Z. THINKING THAT ANB WILL CLEAR SOME BY 9Z AS THE
DRIER AIR WORKS...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED TO
KEEP THE IFR VIS IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z. COULD MOVE OUT EARLIER
BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. ALSO
INCLUDED TEMPO IFR FOR MGM AND TOI AFTER 8Z. NOT ENTIRELY
CONFIDENT HERE...BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE. ANY FOG BURNS OFF
BY 13Z AND WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 5 AND 8 KTS OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  41  64  32  50 /   0   0  20  10   0
ANNISTON    65  41  65  33  50 /   0   0  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  66  43  65  34  51 /   0   0  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  68  44  68  35  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      67  44  66  34  52 /   0   0  10  10   0
AUBURN      68  44  68  36  53 /   0   0   0  10   0
MONTGOMERY  70  43  71  37  55 /   0   0   0  10   0
TROY        70  41  70  36  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16







000
FXUS64 KBMX 300455
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1155 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA HAVE DROPPED A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN EARLIER FORECAST...AS WE ARE ALREADY SHOWING
SOME SPOTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE TEMP DROP IS LAGGING
IN THE SOUTH...AS IS THE EXIT OF THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS. WILL
HAVE AN UPDATED FORECAST OUT SHORTLY TO MAKE THE NEEDED
ADJUSTMENTS.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE DRIER AIR IS COMING...JUST NOT QUICK ENOUGH. SOME DENSE FOG
HAS ALREADY SET UP SHOP AT ANB...AND WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MGM AND
TOI THROUGH 12Z. THINKING THAT ANB WILL CLEAR SOME BY 9Z AS THE
DRIER AIR WORKS...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED TO
KEEP THE IFR VIS IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z. COULD MOVE OUT EARLIER
BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. ALSO
INCLUDED TEMPO IFR FOR MGM AND TOI AFTER 8Z. NOT ENTIRELY
CONFIDENT HERE...BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE. ANY FOG BURNS OFF
BY 13Z AND WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 5 AND 8 KTS OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 300455
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1155 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA HAVE DROPPED A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN EARLIER FORECAST...AS WE ARE ALREADY SHOWING
SOME SPOTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE TEMP DROP IS LAGGING
IN THE SOUTH...AS IS THE EXIT OF THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS. WILL
HAVE AN UPDATED FORECAST OUT SHORTLY TO MAKE THE NEEDED
ADJUSTMENTS.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE DRIER AIR IS COMING...JUST NOT QUICK ENOUGH. SOME DENSE FOG
HAS ALREADY SET UP SHOP AT ANB...AND WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MGM AND
TOI THROUGH 12Z. THINKING THAT ANB WILL CLEAR SOME BY 9Z AS THE
DRIER AIR WORKS...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED TO
KEEP THE IFR VIS IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z. COULD MOVE OUT EARLIER
BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. ALSO
INCLUDED TEMPO IFR FOR MGM AND TOI AFTER 8Z. NOT ENTIRELY
CONFIDENT HERE...BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE. ANY FOG BURNS OFF
BY 13Z AND WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 5 AND 8 KTS OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 300113
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
813 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA HAVE DROPPED A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN EARLIER FORECAST...AS WE ARE ALREADY SHOWING
SOME SPOTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE TEMP DROP IS LAGGING
IN THE SOUTH...AS IS THE EXIT OF THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS. WILL
HAVE AN UPDATED FORECAST OUT SHORTLY TO MAKE THE NEEDED
ADJUSTMENTS.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE RAIN HAS EXITED AND THE CLOUDS ARE NOT FAR BEHIND. ONLY MVFR
CONDITIONS AT MGM RIGHT NOW. THIS SHOULD ONLY LAST THROUGH 1Z.
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN A TEMPO AT TOI FROM 1 TO 2Z FOR THE MVFR
CIGS AS WELL. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY 2Z. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 8 KTS ON THURSDAY.

16


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 292330
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST ON THIS PACKAGE...BUT WE CAN
DEFINITELY SAY THAT IF YOU`VE MISSED THE COLD WEATHER SINCE LAST
YEAR YOU WON`T HAVE TO WAIT MUCH LONGER. FIRST OFF...THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 42 AT HALEYVILLE TO 68 IN EUFAULA. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE FRONT
THIS EVENING AND ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY THURSDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOWER
40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THIS FIRST FRONT WILL
GENERALLY COOL TEMPERATURES OFF FOR US...THE FIRST POWERFUL COLD FRONT
OF THE FALL/WINTER SEASON WILL PLOW SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE HIGH
OF 1038MB OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH IS QUITE STRONG FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WILL SEND VERY COLD AIR SOUTHWARD JUST IN
TIME FOR NOVEMBER TO GET HERE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON HALLOWEEN NIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE POTENT
SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ON THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. FOLKS WITH OUTDOOR PLANS ON HALLOWEEN WILL HAVE
TO DEAL WITH SOME WINDY CONDITIONS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT PLOWS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE BY
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.

DUE TO THE VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL BE PUSHING
SOUTHWARD...WE MAY SEE SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING. WE`VE GONE
AHEAD AND PLACED A LOW CONFIDENCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE
HWO TO REFLECT THAT CHANCE. THERE WON`T BE ANY THREAT OF FROST
ELSEWHERE DUE TO STRONG WINDS PREVENTING ANY FROST FROM DEVELOPING.
SATURDAY WILL BE A VERY COOL DAY TO BE OUTSIDE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUING AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AREAWIDE. SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE THE MORNING OF CONCERN IN TERMS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
AREAS NORTH OF I-20 NEED TO GO AHEAD AND PREPARE NOW FOR A LIKELY
FREEZE...AND A WIDESPREAD FROST WILL BE LIKELY ELSEWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH CALM WINDS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE AROUND FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING THEN RAPIDLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER
SUNRISE.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TOP OUT BACK UP INTO THE 70S BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE RAIN HAS EXITED AND THE CLOUDS ARE NOT FAR BEHIND. ONLY MVFR
CONDITIONS AT MGM RIGHT NOW. THIS SHOULD ONLY LAST THROUGH 1Z.
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN A TEMPO AT TOI FROM 1 TO 2Z FOR THE MVFR
CIGS AS WELL. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR BY 2Z. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 8 KTS ON THURSDAY.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 292102
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
402 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST ON THIS PACKAGE...BUT WE CAN
DEFINITELY SAY THAT IF YOU`VE MISSED THE COLD WEATHER SINCE LAST
YEAR YOU WON`T HAVE TO WAIT MUCH LONGER. FIRST OFF...THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 42 AT HALEYVILLE TO 68 IN EUFAULA. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE FRONT
THIS EVENING AND ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY THURSDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOWER
40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THIS FIRST FRONT WILL
GENERALLY COOL TEMPERATURES OFF FOR US...THE FIRST TRULY ARCTIC
FRONT OF THE FALL/WINTER SEASON WILL PLOW SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE
HIGH OF 1038MB OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH IS QUITE STRONG
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WILL SEND VERY COLD AIR SOUTHWARD JUST
IN TIME FOR NOVEMBER TO GET HERE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON HALLOWEEN NIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE POTENT
SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ON THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. FOLKS WITH OUTDOOR PLANS ON HALLOWEEN WILL HAVE TO DEAL
WITH SOME WINDY CONDITIONS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS
THE COLD FRONT PLOWS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT.

DUE TO THE VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL BE PUSHING
SOUTHWARD...WE MAY SEE SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING. WE`VE GONE
AHEAD AND PLACED A LOW CONFIDENCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE
HWO TO REFLECT THAT CHANCE. THERE WON`T BE ANY THREAT OF FROST
ELSEWHERE DUE TO STRONG WINDS PREVENTING ANY FROST FROM DEVELOPING.
SATURDAY WILL BE A VERY COOL DAY TO BE OUTSIDE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUING AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AREAWIDE. SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE THE MORNING OF CONCERN IN TERMS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
AREAS NORTH OF I-20 NEED TO GO AHEAD AND PREPARE NOW FOR A LIKELY
FREEZE...AND A WIDESPREAD FROST WILL BE LIKELY ELSEWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH CALM WINDS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE AROUND FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING THEN RAPIDLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER
SUNRISE.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TOP OUT BACK UP INTO THE 70S BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FOR OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS...NARROW BAND OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS
AND FOG AN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ONLY
LAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS DRIER AIR IS GOING TO CLEAR OUT THE
SKIES MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FOR MGM AND TOI...DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD
KEEP CEILINGS JUST ABOVE IFR BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE UPSTREAM
OBS THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO TO MAKE SURE THINGS TREND IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION. CEILINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH 5
KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. NO ISSUES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT OR TOMORROW AT
THIS TIME.

88


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     42  66  42  66  33 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    42  66  41  67  33 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  42  67  43  67  34 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  44  69  43  68  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      44  67  43  68  34 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      45  68  42  68  35 /  20   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  47  70  44  71  37 /  10   0   0   0  10
TROY        48  70  44  71  36 /  20   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 291648
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1148 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
QUICKLY BEHIND IT. SOME PERIODS OF LOW STRATUS AND EVEN 1/4 MILE
FOG BRIEFLY BEFORE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS. UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR
THE CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION AS IT IS MOVING QUICKLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH HOLDING WHERE THEY
ARE AT...MAYBE RISING A LITTLE IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S AS
THE SUN COMES OUT...AND PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S NEAR TOI AND EUF
AS THE FRONT IS JUST NOW AT THOSE LOCATIONS.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FOR OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS...NARROW BAND OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS
AND FOG AN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ONLY
LAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS DRIER AIR IS GOING TO CLEAR OUT THE
SKIES MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FOR MGM AND TOI...DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD
KEEP CEILINGS JUST ABOVE IFR BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE UPSTREAM
OBS THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO TO MAKE SURE THINGS TREND IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION. CEILINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH 5
KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. NO ISSUES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT OR TOMORROW AT
THIS TIME.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KBMX 291139
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
639 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND HAS ENTERED THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TRAILING NORTHWEST FOR ABOUT 125 MILES. THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH THE I-59 CORRIDOR AROUND 6 AM. THE
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROF SHOULD KEEP THE RAIN MOVING ALONG TO
THE EAST TODAY AND THE RAIN WILL END FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20 BY
LATE MORNING AND OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY SUNSET. AREAS NORTH OF
I-59 WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON AS
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WORKS IN QUICKLY BEHIND FRONT. A SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES FOR LATE OCTOBER. A FAST MOVING
SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON
FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM
WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING UPPER LOW TRACKING TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL PUSH RAPIDLY INTO ALABAMA ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INTRUSION OF MUCH COLDER
AIR...AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES
FRIDAY NIGHT.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAKENING
SURFACE WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA COULD
EXPERIENCE ITS FIRST FREEZE...MAINLY IN THE VALLEY REGIONS OF
NORTH AND EAST ALABAMA. THIS WILL NOT BE A DAMAGING FREEZE AS
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE 30 DEGREES AND ONLY BE AT OR BELOW 32
DEGREES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THE COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES BY TUESDAY...WHICH MEANS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL STAY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND REMOVED RAIN
CHANCES ON TUESDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SOME OF THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE REDUCING
VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AND
HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF THE
TAF CYCLE. THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS PUSHING QUICKLY TO THE EAST
AND SHOULD END ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY 14Z WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT OBS...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AS THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 16-18Z
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT KMGM AND KTOI WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING MOSTLY VFR.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 290840
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND HAS ENTERED THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TRAILING NORTHWEST FOR ABOUT 125 MILES. THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH THE I-59 CORRIDOR AROUND 6 AM. THE
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROF SHOULD KEEP THE RAIN MOVING ALONG TO
THE EAST TODAY AND THE RAIN WILL END FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20 BY
LATE MORNING AND OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY SUNSET. AREAS NORTH OF
I-59 WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON AS
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WORKS IN QUICKLY BEHIND FRONT. A SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES FOR LATE OCTOBER. A FAST MOVING
SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON
FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM
WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING UPPER LOW TRACKING TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL PUSH RAPIDLY INTO ALABAMA ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INTRUSION OF MUCH COLDER
AIR...AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES
FRIDAY NIGHT.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WEAKENING
SURFACE WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA COULD
EXPERIENCE ITS FIRST FREEZE...MAINLY IN THE VALLEY REGIONS OF
NORTH AND EAST ALABAMA. THIS WILL NOT BE A DAMAGING FREEZE AS
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE 30 DEGREES AND ONLY BE AT OR BELOW 32
DEGREES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THE COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES BY TUESDAY...WHICH MEANS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL STAY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND REMOVED RAIN
CHANCES ON TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION.
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING JUST A TAD WITH MENTION OF SOME
RAIN AND MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS BY 09-10Z FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. THIS WOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS FRONT PASSES
AND WINDS SWING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST...MENTION PREVAILING RAIN
AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR 4-5 HOURS. BY 18Z...FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST
TO THE SOUTH WITH DRY AIR ON ITS HEELS AND VFR CEILINGS.

FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS...BELIEVE THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE
ALREADY INDICATING ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS AND MENTIONED AT
TERMINALS BY 08Z. HELD THE LOWS CLOUDS/RAIN/FOG IN THROUGH AROUND
16Z...BEFORE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS.

THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN WILL BE THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND LOW CEILINGS.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  43  66  43  66 /  70   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    67  43  66  42  67 /  70   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  67  44  67  45  67 /  70   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  69  46  69  45  68 /  70   0   0   0   0
CALERA      68  45  67  44  68 /  70   0   0  10   0
AUBURN      75  47  68  44  68 /  60  20   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  77  48  70  45  71 /  60  10   0  10   0
TROY        78  49  70  45  71 /  60  20   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 290403
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1103 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE DOING OK. FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD HAS
PUSHED WELL INTO NORTH MS...AND WILL SOON MAKE IT INTO NORTHWEST
ALABAMA. THERE`S STILL POCKETS OF CG LIGHTNING OCCASIONALLY
INDICATED WITHIN THIS RAIN AREA...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...WILL NEED TO JUST MAKE A FEW
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. UPDATED FORECASTS
WILL BE ISSUED SOON.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION.
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING JUST A TAD WITH MENTION OF SOME
RAIN AND MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS BY 09-10Z FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. THIS WOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS FRONT PASSES
AND WINDS SWING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST...MENTION PREVAILING RAIN
AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR 4-5 HOURS. BY 18Z...FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST
TO THE SOUTH WITH DRY AIR ON ITS HEELS AND VFR CEILINGS.

FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS...BELIEVE THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE
ALREADY INDICATING ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS AND MENTIONED AT
TERMINALS BY 08Z. HELD THE LOWS CLOUDS/RAIN/FOG IN THROUGH AROUND
16Z...BEFORE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS.

THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN WILL BE THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND LOW CEILINGS.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 328 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL PROVIDE CHANGEABLE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL
ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS OR SO. THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS PRETTY
MUCH ON OUR DOOR STEP THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BRING A SWATH OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE RAIN GETS INTO THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS EVENING...SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON PERIOD...AND EXITS THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EITHER LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EARLY
TOMORROW EVENING.

CG LIGHTNING HAS BEEN RATHER SPOTTY SO FAR WITH THE ONGOING BAND
OF RAIN IN THE ARKLAMISS -- BUT NOT ZERO. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN QUITE MINIMAL...BUT I STILL THINK ITS PRUDENT TO KEEP A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
THE RAIN SHIELD...THERE IS ALSO BOUND TO BE MORE LOW CLOUD AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTER-
MIDNIGHT PERIOD.

COLD FRONT NUMBER 2 ENTERS THE PICTURE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITHIN THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. HAVING SAID THAT...I STILL WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS THE CLOUDS
PINWHEEL AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. DESPITE THE RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT...IT WILL STILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. IN FACT...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF
OUR TRADITIONALLY COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
COULD GET SOME FROST BY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT DRY. THE NEXT OF
RAIN WON`T COME UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK (DEPENDING
ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE).

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  65  43  65  43 /  60  70   0   0  10
ANNISTON    60  67  43  65  42 /  50  70   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  60  66  44  66  45 /  60  70   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  61  68  46  68  45 /  60  70   0   0   0
CALERA      61  68  45  66  44 /  50  70   0   0  10
AUBURN      60  75  47  67  44 /  10  60  20   0  10
MONTGOMERY  62  77  48  69  45 /  20  60  10   0  10
TROY        62  78  49  69  45 /  10  60  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 290403
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1103 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE DOING OK. FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD HAS
PUSHED WELL INTO NORTH MS...AND WILL SOON MAKE IT INTO NORTHWEST
ALABAMA. THERE`S STILL POCKETS OF CG LIGHTNING OCCASIONALLY
INDICATED WITHIN THIS RAIN AREA...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...WILL NEED TO JUST MAKE A FEW
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. UPDATED FORECASTS
WILL BE ISSUED SOON.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION.
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING JUST A TAD WITH MENTION OF SOME
RAIN AND MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS BY 09-10Z FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. THIS WOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS FRONT PASSES
AND WINDS SWING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST...MENTION PREVAILING RAIN
AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR 4-5 HOURS. BY 18Z...FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST
TO THE SOUTH WITH DRY AIR ON ITS HEELS AND VFR CEILINGS.

FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS...BELIEVE THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE
ALREADY INDICATING ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS AND MENTIONED AT
TERMINALS BY 08Z. HELD THE LOWS CLOUDS/RAIN/FOG IN THROUGH AROUND
16Z...BEFORE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS.

THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN WILL BE THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND LOW CEILINGS.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 328 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL PROVIDE CHANGEABLE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL
ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS OR SO. THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS PRETTY
MUCH ON OUR DOOR STEP THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BRING A SWATH OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE RAIN GETS INTO THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS EVENING...SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON PERIOD...AND EXITS THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EITHER LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EARLY
TOMORROW EVENING.

CG LIGHTNING HAS BEEN RATHER SPOTTY SO FAR WITH THE ONGOING BAND
OF RAIN IN THE ARKLAMISS -- BUT NOT ZERO. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN QUITE MINIMAL...BUT I STILL THINK ITS PRUDENT TO KEEP A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
THE RAIN SHIELD...THERE IS ALSO BOUND TO BE MORE LOW CLOUD AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTER-
MIDNIGHT PERIOD.

COLD FRONT NUMBER 2 ENTERS THE PICTURE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITHIN THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. HAVING SAID THAT...I STILL WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS THE CLOUDS
PINWHEEL AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. DESPITE THE RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT...IT WILL STILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. IN FACT...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF
OUR TRADITIONALLY COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
COULD GET SOME FROST BY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT DRY. THE NEXT OF
RAIN WON`T COME UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK (DEPENDING
ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE).

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  65  43  65  43 /  60  70   0   0  10
ANNISTON    60  67  43  65  42 /  50  70   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  60  66  44  66  45 /  60  70   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  61  68  46  68  45 /  60  70   0   0   0
CALERA      61  68  45  66  44 /  50  70   0   0  10
AUBURN      60  75  47  67  44 /  10  60  20   0  10
MONTGOMERY  62  77  48  69  45 /  20  60  10   0  10
TROY        62  78  49  69  45 /  10  60  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 290151 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
851 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE DOING OK. FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD HAS
PUSHED WELL INTO NORTH MS...AND WILL SOON MAKE IT INTO NORTHWEST
ALABAMA. THERE`S STILL POCKETS OF CG LIGHTNING OCCASIONALLY
INDICATED WITHIN THIS RAIN AREA...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...WILL NEED TO JUST MAKE A FEW
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. UPDATED FORECASTS
WILL BE ISSUED SOON.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 05-09Z...THEN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
BEGIN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. IFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY 05Z AT MGM/TOI AND CLOSER TO 10-12Z FOR
TCL/BHM/EET/ANB. THE NORTHERN SITES WILL BE NEAR THE FRONT BY 12Z
AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN AND CHANGE OF
AIRMASS. THE NORTHERN SITES GET A MENTION OF VCSH A FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING HOURS. MENTIONED VCTS
FOR MGM/TOI AS SOME HEATING MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER
15Z. IT APPEARS THAT TIMING WILL BE THE THING TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH THE THUNDER PLACEMENT.

A RISE ABOVE IFR CAN BE EXPECTED 18-20Z FOR THE NORTHERN SITES AS
CLOUDS RISE AND DEEP MOISTURE DECREASES.

75


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 290151 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
851 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE DOING OK. FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD HAS
PUSHED WELL INTO NORTH MS...AND WILL SOON MAKE IT INTO NORTHWEST
ALABAMA. THERE`S STILL POCKETS OF CG LIGHTNING OCCASIONALLY
INDICATED WITHIN THIS RAIN AREA...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...WILL NEED TO JUST MAKE A FEW
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. UPDATED FORECASTS
WILL BE ISSUED SOON.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 05-09Z...THEN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
BEGIN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. IFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY 05Z AT MGM/TOI AND CLOSER TO 10-12Z FOR
TCL/BHM/EET/ANB. THE NORTHERN SITES WILL BE NEAR THE FRONT BY 12Z
AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN AND CHANGE OF
AIRMASS. THE NORTHERN SITES GET A MENTION OF VCSH A FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING HOURS. MENTIONED VCTS
FOR MGM/TOI AS SOME HEATING MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER
15Z. IT APPEARS THAT TIMING WILL BE THE THING TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH THE THUNDER PLACEMENT.

A RISE ABOVE IFR CAN BE EXPECTED 18-20Z FOR THE NORTHERN SITES AS
CLOUDS RISE AND DEEP MOISTURE DECREASES.

75


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 290020
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
720 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL PROVIDE CHANGEABLE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL
ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS OR SO. THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS PRETTY
MUCH ON OUR DOOR STEP THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BRING A SWATH OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE RAIN GETS INTO THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS EVENING...SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON PERIOD...AND EXITS THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EITHER LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EARLY
TOMORROW EVENING.

CG LIGHTNING HAS BEEN RATHER SPOTTY SO FAR WITH THE ONGOING BAND
OF RAIN IN THE ARKLAMISS -- BUT NOT ZERO. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN QUITE MINIMAL...BUT I STILL THINK ITS PRUDENT TO KEEP A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
THE RAIN SHIELD...THERE IS ALSO BOUND TO BE MORE LOW CLOUD AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTER-
MIDNIGHT PERIOD.

COLD FRONT NUMBER 2 ENTERS THE PICTURE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITHIN THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. HAVING SAID THAT...I STILL WOULDN`T`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS THE CLOUDS
PINWHEEL AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. DESPITE THE RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT...IT WILL STILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. IN FACT...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF
OUR TRADITIONALLY COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
COULD GET SOME FROST BY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT DRY. THE NEXT OF
RAIN WON`T COME UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK (DEPENDING
ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE).

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 05-09Z...THEN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
BEGIN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. IFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY 05Z AT MGM/TOI AND CLOSER TO 10-12Z FOR
TCL/BHM/EET/ANB. THE NORTHERN SITES WILL BE NEAR THE FRONT BY 12Z
AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN AND CHANGE OF
AIRMASS. THE NORTHERN SITES GET A MENTION OF VCSH A FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING HOURS. MENTIONED VCTS
FOR MGM/TOI AS SOME HEATING MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER
15Z. IT APPEARS THAT TIMING WILL BE THE THING TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH THE THUNDER PLACEMENT.

A RISE ABOVE IFR CAN BE EXPECTED 18-20Z FOR THE NORTHERN SITES AS
CLOUDS RISE AND DEEP MOISTURE DECREASES.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  65  43  65  43 /  60  70   0   0  10
ANNISTON    60  67  43  65  42 /  50  70   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  60  66  44  66  45 /  60  70   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  61  68  46  68  45 /  60  70   0   0   0
CALERA      61  68  45  66  44 /  50  70   0   0  10
AUBURN      60  75  47  67  44 /  10  60  20   0  10
MONTGOMERY  62  77  48  69  45 /  20  60  10   0  10
TROY        62  78  49  69  45 /  10  60  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 282028
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
328 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL PROVIDE CHANGEABLE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL
ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS OR SO. THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS PRETTY
MUCH ON OUR DOOR STEP THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BRING A SWATH OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE RAIN GETS INTO THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS EVENING...SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON PERIOD...AND EXITS THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EITHER LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EARLY
TOMORROW EVENING.

CG LIGHTNING HAS BEEN RATHER SPOTTY SO FAR WITH THE ONGOING BAND
OF RAIN IN THE ARKLAMISS -- BUT NOT ZERO. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN QUITE MINIMAL...BUT I STILL THINK ITS PRUDENT TO KEEP A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
THE RAIN SHIELD...THERE IS ALSO BOUND TO BE MORE LOW CLOUD AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTER-
MIDNIGHT PERIOD.

COLD FRONT NUMBER 2 ENTERS THE PICTURE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITHIN THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. HAVING SAID THAT...I STILL WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS THE CLOUDS
PINWHEEL AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. DESPITE THE RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT...IT WILL STILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. IN FACT...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF
OUR TRADITIONALLY COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
COULD GET SOME FROST BY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT DRY. THE NEXT OF
RAIN WON`T COME UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK (DEPENDING
ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE).

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE MIXED OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT.
FORECAST CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE LOW CLOUD/FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN TERMINAL LOCATIONS FROM 09Z TO 15Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING...RAINFALL ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 15-17Z.

FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES OF KMGM AND KTOI...FOG WILL BE LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL WITH
CALM WINDS. THE FOG MIGHT NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AS WHAT
WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN AT
LEAST IFR VIS AND CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. VIS
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT LOW CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ADDED
VCSH INSTEAD OF -RA WITH LOWER COVERAGE OF PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z BEHIND THE FRONT.

56/GDG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  65  43  65  43 /  60  70   0   0  10
ANNISTON    60  67  43  65  42 /  50  70   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  60  66  44  66  45 /  60  70   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  61  68  46  68  45 /  60  70   0   0   0
CALERA      61  68  45  66  44 /  50  70   0   0  10
AUBURN      60  75  47  67  44 /  10  60  20   0  10
MONTGOMERY  62  77  48  69  45 /  20  60  10   0  10
TROY        62  78  49  69  45 /  10  60  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 281806
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
106 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A RATHER BALMY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. AN AREA OF STRATUS/FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA AND WAS SPREADING NORTHWARD. VISIBILITY HAVE
DROPPED QUICKLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATUS AND HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 9 AM. EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY THAN
PAST FEW DAYS BUT STILL EXPECT TOO SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  DESPITE A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY...ALL
GUIDANCE SHOWS COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT DID BUMP UP HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO MOST AREAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND BE
LOCATED NEAR THE I-59 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND
THE SURFACE FRONT...AND THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT OF POPS
TONIGHT AS AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 WILL NOT LIKELY SEE ANY RAIN BEFORE
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A GREATER AREAL
COVERAGE OF POST-FRONT RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND WENT AHEAD AND RAISED
RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF
RAIN AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT INTO SOUTH ALABAMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-20. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. SUNNY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A BIG SWING IN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
EARLIER IN THE WEEK AND FORECAST HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AND BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR YET TO
ALABAMA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR MASS...BUT MOISTURE NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE COLDEST MORNING
THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA WITH LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
POSSIBLY THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON FOR THE COLDER VALLEY
AREAS. THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HANG AROUND LONG AS AN
UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND A
RIDGE BUILDS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE MIXED OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT.
FORECAST CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE LOW CLOUD/FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN TERMINAL LOCATIONS FROM 09Z TO 15Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING...RAINFALL ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 15-17Z.

FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES OF KMGM AND KTOI...FOG WILL BE LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL WITH
CALM WINDS. THE FOG MIGHT NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AS WHAT
WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN AT
LEAST IFR VIS AND CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. VIS
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT LOW CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ADDED
VCSH INSTEAD OF -RA WITH LOWER COVERAGE OF PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z BEHIND THE FRONT.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  67  43  66  43 /  40  60  10  10  10
ANNISTON    59  68  44  66  43 /  20  60  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  61  67  45  67  45 /  30  60  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  61  68  46  69  45 /  30  60  10  10  10
CALERA      61  69  47  68  45 /  30  60  10  10  10
AUBURN      61  77  50  69  46 /  10  40  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  62  78  51  71  46 /  10  40  10  10  10
TROY        62  82  51  71  46 /  10  40  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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