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000
FXUS64 KBMX 300032
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
732 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE FROM THE
WEST WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY. THE
BEST AXIS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT EVERYONE HAS AN ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
RAINFALL...AT LEAST FOR PART OF THE DAY. BEST TIMING FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MUCH OF
THE LIFT PULLING OUT BY SATURDAY EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND THEN A DRIER
PATTERN SETS IN AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...ONLY
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY INITIATED CONVECTION
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY 70S FOR LOWS.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH
PERHAPS SOME MVFR VIS FOR KTOI NEAR SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIRRUS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. VCTS HAS BEEN REMOVED FOR
KTOI...KMGM...AND KANB FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT THIS TIME
FOR INCLUSION INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  89  70  90  69 /  20  60  40  40  30
ANNISTON    70  90  72  90  71 /  20  60  30  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  74  89  73  91  74 /  20  70  40  40  20
TUSCALOOSA  74  91  73  91  72 /  30  70  50  40  20
CALERA      73  89  73  91  72 /  20  70  40  30  20
AUBURN      71  91  72  91  73 /  20  50  30  20  10
MONTGOMERY  74  93  74  94  74 /  20  60  30  30  10
TROY        72  93  72  93  72 /  20  50  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 300032
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
732 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE FROM THE
WEST WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY. THE
BEST AXIS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT EVERYONE HAS AN ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
RAINFALL...AT LEAST FOR PART OF THE DAY. BEST TIMING FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MUCH OF
THE LIFT PULLING OUT BY SATURDAY EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND THEN A DRIER
PATTERN SETS IN AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...ONLY
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY INITIATED CONVECTION
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY 70S FOR LOWS.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH
PERHAPS SOME MVFR VIS FOR KTOI NEAR SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIRRUS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. VCTS HAS BEEN REMOVED FOR
KTOI...KMGM...AND KANB FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT THIS TIME
FOR INCLUSION INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  89  70  90  69 /  20  60  40  40  30
ANNISTON    70  90  72  90  71 /  20  60  30  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  74  89  73  91  74 /  20  70  40  40  20
TUSCALOOSA  74  91  73  91  72 /  30  70  50  40  20
CALERA      73  89  73  91  72 /  20  70  40  30  20
AUBURN      71  91  72  91  73 /  20  50  30  20  10
MONTGOMERY  74  93  74  94  74 /  20  60  30  30  10
TROY        72  93  72  93  72 /  20  50  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 291956
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
256 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE FROM THE
WEST WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY. THE
BEST AXIS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT EVERYONE HAS AN ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
RAINFALL...AT LEAST FOR PART OF THE DAY. BEST TIMING FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MUCH OF
THE LIFT PULLING OUT BY SATURDAY EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND THEN A DRIER
PATTERN SETS IN AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...ONLY
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY INITIATED CONVECTION
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY 70S FOR LOWS.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ACTUALLY HAVE SOME WEATHER TO DISCUSS IN THIS ROUND OF TAFS. WE
ARE SEEING THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTH AND WEST. MAY SEE AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT
LIFT THROUGH THE AFTER BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z TOMORROW...WITH
SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. INCLUDED VCTS FOR TOI...MGM AND
TCL AFTER 13 TO 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THIS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES
AFTER 18Z AT ALL SITES. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SOME LIMITED
MVFR VIS MAY DEVELOP AT TOI AND MGM OVERNIGHT SO INCLUDED THIS AS
WELL. LOOK FOR DECREASING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

16


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  89  70  90  69 /  20  60  40  40  30
ANNISTON    70  90  72  90  71 /  20  60  30  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  74  89  73  91  74 /  20  70  40  40  20
TUSCALOOSA  74  91  73  91  72 /  20  70  50  40  20
CALERA      73  89  73  91  72 /  20  70  40  30  20
AUBURN      71  91  72  91  73 /  20  50  30  20  10
MONTGOMERY  74  93  74  94  74 /  20  60  30  30  10
TROY        72  93  72  93  72 /  20  50  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 291956
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
256 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE FROM THE
WEST WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY. THE
BEST AXIS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT EVERYONE HAS AN ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
RAINFALL...AT LEAST FOR PART OF THE DAY. BEST TIMING FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MUCH OF
THE LIFT PULLING OUT BY SATURDAY EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND THEN A DRIER
PATTERN SETS IN AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...ONLY
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY INITIATED CONVECTION
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S EACH DAY WITH
MAINLY 70S FOR LOWS.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ACTUALLY HAVE SOME WEATHER TO DISCUSS IN THIS ROUND OF TAFS. WE
ARE SEEING THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTH AND WEST. MAY SEE AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT
LIFT THROUGH THE AFTER BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z TOMORROW...WITH
SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. INCLUDED VCTS FOR TOI...MGM AND
TCL AFTER 13 TO 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THIS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES
AFTER 18Z AT ALL SITES. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SOME LIMITED
MVFR VIS MAY DEVELOP AT TOI AND MGM OVERNIGHT SO INCLUDED THIS AS
WELL. LOOK FOR DECREASING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

16


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  89  70  90  69 /  20  60  40  40  30
ANNISTON    70  90  72  90  71 /  20  60  30  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  74  89  73  91  74 /  20  70  40  40  20
TUSCALOOSA  74  91  73  91  72 /  20  70  50  40  20
CALERA      73  89  73  91  72 /  20  70  40  30  20
AUBURN      71  91  72  91  73 /  20  50  30  20  10
MONTGOMERY  74  93  74  94  74 /  20  60  30  30  10
TROY        72  93  72  93  72 /  20  50  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 291711
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1211 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE ON THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. ANOTHER WARM
SUMMER DAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BEGINS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL
BE WATCHING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING TO
SEE HOW FAR THEY WORK NORTH BEFORE 7 PM...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THEY STAY PRETTY FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THEN. LOWERED
POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST...WITH THE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHEAST. EVEN THAT IS ONLY 20 PERCENT. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ACTUALLY HAVE SOME WEATHER TO DISCUSS IN THIS ROUND OF TAFS. WE
ARE SEEING THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTH AND WEST. MAY SEE AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT
LIFT THROUGH THE AFTER BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z TOMORROW...WITH
SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. INCLUDED VCTS FOR TOI...MGM AND
TCL AFTER 13 TO 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THIS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES
AFTER 18Z AT ALL SITES. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SOME LIMITED
MVFR VIS MAY DEVELOP AT TOI AND MGM OVERNIGHT SO INCLUDED THIS AS
WELL. LOOK FOR DECREASING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  90  71  91  72 /  20  50  40  40  40
ANNISTON    71  89  72  91  72 /  20  50  30  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  74  90  73  91  74 /  20  50  40  50  40
TUSCALOOSA  74  91  74  92  74 /  30  60  50  50  40
CALERA      73  91  73  92  74 /  20  50  40  40  40
AUBURN      73  91  73  92  73 /  20  40  30  30  30
MONTGOMERY  74  93  74  95  75 /  20  50  30  30  30
TROY        73  93  72  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 291711
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1211 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE ON THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. ANOTHER WARM
SUMMER DAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BEGINS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL
BE WATCHING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING TO
SEE HOW FAR THEY WORK NORTH BEFORE 7 PM...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THEY STAY PRETTY FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THEN. LOWERED
POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST...WITH THE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHEAST. EVEN THAT IS ONLY 20 PERCENT. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ACTUALLY HAVE SOME WEATHER TO DISCUSS IN THIS ROUND OF TAFS. WE
ARE SEEING THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTH AND WEST. MAY SEE AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT
LIFT THROUGH THE AFTER BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z TOMORROW...WITH
SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. INCLUDED VCTS FOR TOI...MGM AND
TCL AFTER 13 TO 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THIS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES
AFTER 18Z AT ALL SITES. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SOME LIMITED
MVFR VIS MAY DEVELOP AT TOI AND MGM OVERNIGHT SO INCLUDED THIS AS
WELL. LOOK FOR DECREASING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  90  71  91  72 /  20  50  40  40  40
ANNISTON    71  89  72  91  72 /  20  50  30  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  74  90  73  91  74 /  20  50  40  50  40
TUSCALOOSA  74  91  74  92  74 /  30  60  50  50  40
CALERA      73  91  73  92  74 /  20  50  40  40  40
AUBURN      73  91  73  92  73 /  20  40  30  30  30
MONTGOMERY  74  93  74  95  75 /  20  50  30  30  30
TROY        73  93  72  93  73 /  20  40  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 291544
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1044 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE ON THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. ANOTHER WARM
SUMMER DAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BEGINS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL
BE WATCHING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING TO
SEE HOW FAR THEY WORK NORTH BEFORE 7 PM...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THEY STAY PRETTY FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THEN. LOWERED
POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST...WITH THE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHEAST. EVEN THAT IS ONLY 20 PERCENT. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE BUT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.

05/MA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 427 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

AFTER SEVERAL DRY DAYS IN A ROW...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THINGS ARE
GOING TO CHANGE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SEVERAL AREAS OF
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A GENERAL
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT NOTED. OVER LAND...THERE`S ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN NORTHERN TEXAS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD
ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ONCE THE GULF MOISTURE
STARTS TO LINK UP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMING FROM THE
WEST...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO EXPAND OUR WAY.

BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME DURING THE SATURDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. HAVING SAID THAT...AND IN SPITE OF THE 50%-60% POPS IN
MANY AREAS...I WOULDN`T NECESSARILY CALL SATURDAY A WASHOUT QUITE
YET.

ONCE THAT BIG SURGE OF MOISTURE HEADS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WE WILL BE LEFT UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY TYPICAL
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.
THIS BRINGS POPS BACK DOWN TO CLIMO LEVELS...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  70  90  71  91 /  10  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    93  71  89  72  91 /  10  20  50  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  94  74  90  73  91 /  10  20  50  40  50
TUSCALOOSA  95  74  91  74  92 /  10  30  60  50  50
CALERA      94  73  91  73  92 /  10  20  50  40  40
AUBURN      94  73  91  73  92 /  10  20  40  30  30
MONTGOMERY  95  74  93  74  95 /  10  20  50  30  30
TROY        94  73  93  72  93 /  20  20  40  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 291544
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1044 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE ON THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. ANOTHER WARM
SUMMER DAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BEGINS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL
BE WATCHING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING TO
SEE HOW FAR THEY WORK NORTH BEFORE 7 PM...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THEY STAY PRETTY FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THEN. LOWERED
POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST...WITH THE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHEAST. EVEN THAT IS ONLY 20 PERCENT. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE BUT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.

05/MA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 427 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

AFTER SEVERAL DRY DAYS IN A ROW...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THINGS ARE
GOING TO CHANGE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SEVERAL AREAS OF
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A GENERAL
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT NOTED. OVER LAND...THERE`S ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN NORTHERN TEXAS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD
ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ONCE THE GULF MOISTURE
STARTS TO LINK UP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMING FROM THE
WEST...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO EXPAND OUR WAY.

BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME DURING THE SATURDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. HAVING SAID THAT...AND IN SPITE OF THE 50%-60% POPS IN
MANY AREAS...I WOULDN`T NECESSARILY CALL SATURDAY A WASHOUT QUITE
YET.

ONCE THAT BIG SURGE OF MOISTURE HEADS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WE WILL BE LEFT UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY TYPICAL
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.
THIS BRINGS POPS BACK DOWN TO CLIMO LEVELS...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  70  90  71  91 /  10  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    93  71  89  72  91 /  10  20  50  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  94  74  90  73  91 /  10  20  50  40  50
TUSCALOOSA  95  74  91  74  92 /  10  30  60  50  50
CALERA      94  73  91  73  92 /  10  20  50  40  40
AUBURN      94  73  91  73  92 /  10  20  40  30  30
MONTGOMERY  95  74  93  74  95 /  10  20  50  30  30
TROY        94  73  93  72  93 /  20  20  40  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 291119
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
619 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER SEVERAL DRY DAYS IN A ROW...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THINGS ARE
GOING TO CHANGE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SEVERAL AREAS OF
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A GENERAL
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT NOTED. OVER LAND...THERE`S ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN NORTHERN TEXAS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD
ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ONCE THE GULF MOISTURE
STARTS TO LINK UP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMING FROM THE
WEST...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO EXPAND OUR WAY.

BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME DURING THE SATURDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. HAVING SAID THAT...AND IN SPITE OF THE 50%-60% POPS IN
MANY AREAS...I WOULDN`T NECESSARILY CALL SATURDAY A WASHOUT QUITE
YET.

ONCE THAT BIG SURGE OF MOISTURE HEADS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WE WILL BE LEFT UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY TYPICAL
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.
THIS BRINGS POPS BACK DOWN TO CLIMO LEVELS...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE BUT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 291119
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
619 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER SEVERAL DRY DAYS IN A ROW...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THINGS ARE
GOING TO CHANGE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SEVERAL AREAS OF
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A GENERAL
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT NOTED. OVER LAND...THERE`S ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN NORTHERN TEXAS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD
ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ONCE THE GULF MOISTURE
STARTS TO LINK UP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMING FROM THE
WEST...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO EXPAND OUR WAY.

BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME DURING THE SATURDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. HAVING SAID THAT...AND IN SPITE OF THE 50%-60% POPS IN
MANY AREAS...I WOULDN`T NECESSARILY CALL SATURDAY A WASHOUT QUITE
YET.

ONCE THAT BIG SURGE OF MOISTURE HEADS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WE WILL BE LEFT UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY TYPICAL
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.
THIS BRINGS POPS BACK DOWN TO CLIMO LEVELS...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE BUT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 290927
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
427 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER SEVERAL DRY DAYS IN A ROW...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THINGS ARE
GOING TO CHANGE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SEVERAL AREAS OF
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A GENERAL
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT NOTED. OVER LAND...THERE`S ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN NORTHERN TEXAS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD
ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ONCE THE GULF MOISTURE
STARTS TO LINK UP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMING FROM THE
WEST...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO EXPAND OUR WAY.

BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME DURING THE SATURDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. HAVING SAID THAT...AND IN SPITE OF THE 50%-60% POPS IN
MANY AREAS...I WOULDN`T NECESSARILY CALL SATURDAY A WASHOUT QUITE
YET.

ONCE THAT BIG SURGE OF MOISTURE HEADS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WE WILL BE LEFT UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY TYPICAL
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.
THIS BRINGS POPS BACK DOWN TO CLIMO LEVELS...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. DRY AND CALM TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  70  90  71  91 /  10  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    93  71  89  72  91 /  10  20  50  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  94  74  90  73  91 /  10  20  50  40  50
TUSCALOOSA  95  74  91  74  92 /  10  30  60  50  50
CALERA      94  73  91  73  92 /  10  20  50  40  40
AUBURN      94  73  91  73  92 /  10  20  40  30  30
MONTGOMERY  95  74  93  74  95 /  10  20  50  30  30
TROY        94  73  93  72  93 /  20  20  40  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 290927
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
427 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER SEVERAL DRY DAYS IN A ROW...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THINGS ARE
GOING TO CHANGE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SEVERAL AREAS OF
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A GENERAL
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT NOTED. OVER LAND...THERE`S ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN NORTHERN TEXAS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD
ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ONCE THE GULF MOISTURE
STARTS TO LINK UP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMING FROM THE
WEST...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO EXPAND OUR WAY.

BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME DURING THE SATURDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. HAVING SAID THAT...AND IN SPITE OF THE 50%-60% POPS IN
MANY AREAS...I WOULDN`T NECESSARILY CALL SATURDAY A WASHOUT QUITE
YET.

ONCE THAT BIG SURGE OF MOISTURE HEADS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WE WILL BE LEFT UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY TYPICAL
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.
THIS BRINGS POPS BACK DOWN TO CLIMO LEVELS...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. DRY AND CALM TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  70  90  71  91 /  10  20  50  40  40
ANNISTON    93  71  89  72  91 /  10  20  50  30  40
BIRMINGHAM  94  74  90  73  91 /  10  20  50  40  50
TUSCALOOSA  95  74  91  74  92 /  10  30  60  50  50
CALERA      94  73  91  73  92 /  10  20  50  40  40
AUBURN      94  73  91  73  92 /  10  20  40  30  30
MONTGOMERY  95  74  93  74  95 /  10  20  50  30  30
TROY        94  73  93  72  93 /  20  20  40  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 290441
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE. THE DEW POINTS ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THERE.
UPPER FLOW IS SPREADING SOME HIGH CIRRUS NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR FLORIDA. THAT TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...EVEN WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS...STILL OVERALL DRY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. DRY AND CALM TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  94  70  88  70 /   0  10  20  60  50
ANNISTON    64  93  71  90  71 /   0  10  20  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  68  94  73  86  72 /   0  10  20  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  95  74  86  73 /   0  10  30  70  50
CALERA      68  94  73  87  72 /   0  10  20  60  50
AUBURN      67  94  72  89  71 /   0  10  20  60  40
MONTGOMERY  69  95  73  93  73 /   0  10  20  60  40
TROY        66  94  72  91  72 /   0  20  20  60  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 290441
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE. THE DEW POINTS ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THERE.
UPPER FLOW IS SPREADING SOME HIGH CIRRUS NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR FLORIDA. THAT TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...EVEN WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS...STILL OVERALL DRY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. DRY AND CALM TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  94  70  88  70 /   0  10  20  60  50
ANNISTON    64  93  71  90  71 /   0  10  20  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  68  94  73  86  72 /   0  10  20  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  95  74  86  73 /   0  10  30  70  50
CALERA      68  94  73  87  72 /   0  10  20  60  50
AUBURN      67  94  72  89  71 /   0  10  20  60  40
MONTGOMERY  69  95  73  93  73 /   0  10  20  60  40
TROY        66  94  72  91  72 /   0  20  20  60  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 290313 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1013 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE. THE DEW POINTS ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THERE.
UPPER FLOW IS SPREADING SOME HIGH CIRRUS NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR FLORIDA. THAT TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...EVEN WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS...STILL OVERALL DRY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXPECT DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT THANKS TO PERSISTENT HIGH
PRESSURE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS SFC WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 406 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE UPON CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH ONE MORE AFTERNOON
OF DRY DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. WE`LL START TO SEE THOSE MOISTURE
LEVELS CREEPING BACK UP DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
TRANSITION EASTWARD AND BUILD OVER FLORIDA, SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, AND
SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DICTATE THE
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. A COMBINATION OF A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH IN THE PLAINS AND UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO SURGE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH PWATS OF 2.1 TO 2.2 INCHES. THE BIG FACTOR THAT WILL
DETERMINE IF AN AXIS OF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
EAST. IF THE RIDGE IS ALLOWED TO BUILD TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS
INCREASE JUST ENOUGH...IT COULD SUPPRESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND DECREASE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS THAT
WAS BEING ADVERTISED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAS NOW MOVED WESTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...THAT DOESN`T MEAN THAT THE
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS GONE AWAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION COULD BE MORE CELLULAR
ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS MORE
SPORADIC IN NATURE. OF COURSE...WITH THE PWATS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE WE`LL SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. SOME RAINFALL WOULD BE HELPFUL TO REDUCE THE CURRENT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT HAVE RECENTLY SET UP.

SO...FOR THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS AREA WIDE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND
ONE INCH WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO...BUT ONCE AGAIN
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHILE TEMPS
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 90 ARE ANTICIPATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT ACROSS ALL OF THE GULF STATES
BY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GOING UP AND RAIN CHANCES GOING DOWN IN
RESPONSE. LOW TO MID 90S WILL BE PREVALENT WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE GOING ANYWHERE NEXT WEEK...AND NO BIG
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  94  70  88  70 /   0  10  20  60  50
ANNISTON    64  93  71  90  71 /   0  10  20  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  68  94  73  86  72 /   0  10  20  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  95  74  86  73 /   0  10  30  70  50
CALERA      68  94  73  87  72 /   0  10  20  60  50
AUBURN      67  94  72  89  71 /   0  10  20  60  40
MONTGOMERY  69  95  73  93  73 /   0  10  20  60  40
TROY        66  94  72  91  72 /   0  20  20  60  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/19/56







000
FXUS64 KBMX 290313 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1013 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE. THE DEW POINTS ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THERE.
UPPER FLOW IS SPREADING SOME HIGH CIRRUS NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR FLORIDA. THAT TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...EVEN WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS...STILL OVERALL DRY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXPECT DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT THANKS TO PERSISTENT HIGH
PRESSURE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS SFC WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 406 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE UPON CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH ONE MORE AFTERNOON
OF DRY DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. WE`LL START TO SEE THOSE MOISTURE
LEVELS CREEPING BACK UP DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
TRANSITION EASTWARD AND BUILD OVER FLORIDA, SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, AND
SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DICTATE THE
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. A COMBINATION OF A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH IN THE PLAINS AND UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO SURGE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH PWATS OF 2.1 TO 2.2 INCHES. THE BIG FACTOR THAT WILL
DETERMINE IF AN AXIS OF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
EAST. IF THE RIDGE IS ALLOWED TO BUILD TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS
INCREASE JUST ENOUGH...IT COULD SUPPRESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND DECREASE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS THAT
WAS BEING ADVERTISED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAS NOW MOVED WESTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...THAT DOESN`T MEAN THAT THE
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS GONE AWAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION COULD BE MORE CELLULAR
ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS MORE
SPORADIC IN NATURE. OF COURSE...WITH THE PWATS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE WE`LL SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. SOME RAINFALL WOULD BE HELPFUL TO REDUCE THE CURRENT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT HAVE RECENTLY SET UP.

SO...FOR THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS AREA WIDE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND
ONE INCH WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO...BUT ONCE AGAIN
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHILE TEMPS
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 90 ARE ANTICIPATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT ACROSS ALL OF THE GULF STATES
BY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GOING UP AND RAIN CHANCES GOING DOWN IN
RESPONSE. LOW TO MID 90S WILL BE PREVALENT WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE GOING ANYWHERE NEXT WEEK...AND NO BIG
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  94  70  88  70 /   0  10  20  60  50
ANNISTON    64  93  71  90  71 /   0  10  20  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  68  94  73  86  72 /   0  10  20  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  95  74  86  73 /   0  10  30  70  50
CALERA      68  94  73  87  72 /   0  10  20  60  50
AUBURN      67  94  72  89  71 /   0  10  20  60  40
MONTGOMERY  69  95  73  93  73 /   0  10  20  60  40
TROY        66  94  72  91  72 /   0  20  20  60  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/19/56








000
FXUS64 KBMX 282331
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
631 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE UPON CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH ONE MORE AFTERNOON
OF DRY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. WE`LL START TO SEE THOSE MOISTURE
LEVELS CREEPING BACK UP DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
TRANSITION EASTWARD AND BUILD OVER FLORIDA, SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, AND
SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DICTATE THE
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. A COMBINATION OF A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH IN THE PLAINS AND UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO SURGE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH PWATS OF 2.1 TO 2.2 INCHES. THE BIG FACTOR THAT WILL
DETERMINE IF AN AXIS OF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
EAST. IF THE RIDGE IS ALLOWED TO BUILD TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS
INCREASE JUST ENOUGH...IT COULD SUPPRESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND DECREASE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS THAT
WAS BEING ADVERTISED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAS NOW MOVED WESTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...THAT DOESN`T MEAN THAT THE
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS GONE AWAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION COULD BE MORE CELLULAR
ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS MORE
SPORADIC IN NATURE. OF COURSE...WITH THE PWATS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE WE`LL SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. SOME RAINFALL WOULD BE HELPFUL TO REDUCE THE CURRENT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT HAVE RECENTLY SET UP.

SO...FOR THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND
ONE INCH WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO...BUT ONCE AGAIN
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHILE TEMPS
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 90 ARE ANTICIPATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT ACROSS ALL OF THE GULF STATES
BY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GOING UP AND RAIN CHANCES GOING DOWN IN
RESPONSE. LOW TO MID 90S WILL BE PREVALENT WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE GOING ANYWHERE NEXT WEEK...AND NO BIG
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXPECT DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT THANKS TO PERSISTENT HIGH
PRESSURE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS SFC WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  94  70  88  70 /   0  10  20  60  50
ANNISTON    64  93  71  90  71 /   0  10  20  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  68  94  73  86  72 /   0  10  20  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  95  74  86  73 /   0  10  30  70  50
CALERA      68  94  73  87  72 /   0  10  20  60  50
AUBURN      67  94  72  89  71 /   0  10  20  60  40
MONTGOMERY  69  95  73  93  73 /   0  10  20  60  40
TROY        66  94  72  91  72 /   0  20  20  60  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 282331
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
631 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE UPON CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH ONE MORE AFTERNOON
OF DRY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. WE`LL START TO SEE THOSE MOISTURE
LEVELS CREEPING BACK UP DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
TRANSITION EASTWARD AND BUILD OVER FLORIDA, SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, AND
SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DICTATE THE
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. A COMBINATION OF A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH IN THE PLAINS AND UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO SURGE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH PWATS OF 2.1 TO 2.2 INCHES. THE BIG FACTOR THAT WILL
DETERMINE IF AN AXIS OF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
EAST. IF THE RIDGE IS ALLOWED TO BUILD TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS
INCREASE JUST ENOUGH...IT COULD SUPPRESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND DECREASE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS THAT
WAS BEING ADVERTISED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAS NOW MOVED WESTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...THAT DOESN`T MEAN THAT THE
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS GONE AWAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION COULD BE MORE CELLULAR
ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS MORE
SPORADIC IN NATURE. OF COURSE...WITH THE PWATS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE WE`LL SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. SOME RAINFALL WOULD BE HELPFUL TO REDUCE THE CURRENT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT HAVE RECENTLY SET UP.

SO...FOR THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND
ONE INCH WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO...BUT ONCE AGAIN
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHILE TEMPS
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 90 ARE ANTICIPATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT ACROSS ALL OF THE GULF STATES
BY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GOING UP AND RAIN CHANCES GOING DOWN IN
RESPONSE. LOW TO MID 90S WILL BE PREVALENT WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE GOING ANYWHERE NEXT WEEK...AND NO BIG
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXPECT DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT THANKS TO PERSISTENT HIGH
PRESSURE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS SFC WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  94  70  88  70 /   0  10  20  60  50
ANNISTON    64  93  71  90  71 /   0  10  20  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  68  94  73  86  72 /   0  10  20  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  95  74  86  73 /   0  10  30  70  50
CALERA      68  94  73  87  72 /   0  10  20  60  50
AUBURN      67  94  72  89  71 /   0  10  20  60  40
MONTGOMERY  69  95  73  93  73 /   0  10  20  60  40
TROY        66  94  72  91  72 /   0  20  20  60  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 282106
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
406 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE UPON CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH ONE MORE AFTERNOON
OF DRY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. WE`LL START TO SEE THOSE MOISTURE
LEVELS CREEPING BACK UP DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
TRANSITION EASTWARD AND BUILD OVER FLORIDA, SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, AND
SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DICTATE THE
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. A COMBINATION OF A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH IN THE PLAINS AND UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO SURGE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH PWATS OF 2.1 TO 2.2 INCHES. THE BIG FACTOR THAT WILL
DETERMINE IF AN AXIS OF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
EAST. IF THE RIDGE IS ALLOWED TO BUILD TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS
INCREASE JUST ENOUGH...IT COULD SUPPRESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND DECREASE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS THAT
WAS BEING ADVERTISED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAS NOW MOVED WESTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...THAT DOESN`T MEAN THAT THE
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS GONE AWAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION COULD BE MORE CELLULAR
ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS MORE
SPORADIC IN NATURE. OF COURSE...WITH THE PWATS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE WE`LL SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. SOME RAINFALL WOULD BE HELPFUL TO REDUCE THE CURRENT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT HAVE RECENTLY SET UP.

SO...FOR THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND
ONE INCH WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO...BUT ONCE AGAIN
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHILE TEMPS
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 90 ARE ANTICIPATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT ACROSS ALL OF THE GULF STATES
BY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GOING UP AND RAIN CHANCES GOING DOWN IN
RESPONSE. LOW TO MID 90S WILL BE PREVALENT WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE GOING ANYWHERE NEXT WEEK...AND NO BIG
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.
WINDS WILL TAKE ON A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
CLOUDS STREAMING IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  94  70  88  70 /   0  10  20  60  50
ANNISTON    64  93  71  90  71 /   0  10  20  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  68  94  73  86  72 /   0  10  20  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  95  74  86  73 /   0  10  30  70  50
CALERA      68  94  73  87  72 /   0  10  20  60  50
AUBURN      67  94  72  89  71 /   0  10  20  60  40
MONTGOMERY  69  95  73  93  73 /   0  10  20  60  40
TROY        66  94  72  91  72 /   0  20  20  60  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 282106
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
406 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE UPON CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH ONE MORE AFTERNOON
OF DRY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. WE`LL START TO SEE THOSE MOISTURE
LEVELS CREEPING BACK UP DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
TRANSITION EASTWARD AND BUILD OVER FLORIDA, SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, AND
SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DICTATE THE
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. A COMBINATION OF A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH IN THE PLAINS AND UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO SURGE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH PWATS OF 2.1 TO 2.2 INCHES. THE BIG FACTOR THAT WILL
DETERMINE IF AN AXIS OF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
EAST. IF THE RIDGE IS ALLOWED TO BUILD TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS
INCREASE JUST ENOUGH...IT COULD SUPPRESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND DECREASE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS THAT
WAS BEING ADVERTISED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAS NOW MOVED WESTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...THAT DOESN`T MEAN THAT THE
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS GONE AWAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION COULD BE MORE CELLULAR
ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS MORE
SPORADIC IN NATURE. OF COURSE...WITH THE PWATS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE WE`LL SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. SOME RAINFALL WOULD BE HELPFUL TO REDUCE THE CURRENT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT HAVE RECENTLY SET UP.

SO...FOR THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND
ONE INCH WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO...BUT ONCE AGAIN
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHILE TEMPS
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 90 ARE ANTICIPATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT ACROSS ALL OF THE GULF STATES
BY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GOING UP AND RAIN CHANCES GOING DOWN IN
RESPONSE. LOW TO MID 90S WILL BE PREVALENT WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE GOING ANYWHERE NEXT WEEK...AND NO BIG
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.
WINDS WILL TAKE ON A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
CLOUDS STREAMING IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  94  70  88  70 /   0  10  20  60  50
ANNISTON    64  93  71  90  71 /   0  10  20  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  68  94  73  86  72 /   0  10  20  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  67  95  74  86  73 /   0  10  30  70  50
CALERA      68  94  73  87  72 /   0  10  20  60  50
AUBURN      67  94  72  89  71 /   0  10  20  60  40
MONTGOMERY  69  95  73  93  73 /   0  10  20  60  40
TROY        66  94  72  91  72 /   0  20  20  60  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 281812
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
112 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH TO CHANGE WITH THE MORNING UPDATE AS TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK. BEGINNING TO SEE THE MIX OUT ALL READY AND WILL BE FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE EXPECTED TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.
WINDS WILL TAKE ON A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
CLOUDS STREAMING IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 281537
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1037 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH TO CHANGE WITH THE MORNING UPDATE AS TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK. BEGINNING TO SEE THE MIX OUT ALL READY AND WILL BE FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE EXPECTED TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.
WINDS WILL TAKE ON A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TODAY WITH HIGHS CLOUDS
STREAMING IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

05/MA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 407 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SQUEEZE OUT ONE...MAYBE TWO...DRY DAYS BEFORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
PLAINS STATES INTO THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL LIKELY BRING A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL ALABAMA
OVER THE WEEKEND. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST...AND WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS FOR MANY AREAS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN WEST-EAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD DROP DAILY RAIN CHANCES DOWN
TO CLIMO LEVELS (AT MOST)...WHILE ALSO CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  65  94  70  90 /   0   0  10  20  60
ANNISTON    93  66  93  71  89 /   0   0  10  20  60
BIRMINGHAM  94  69  94  73  91 /   0   0  10  20  60
TUSCALOOSA  95  69  95  74  91 /   0   0  10  30  60
CALERA      94  69  94  73  91 /   0   0  10  20  60
AUBURN      93  68  94  72  90 /   0   0  10  20  50
MONTGOMERY  95  69  95  73  92 /   0   0  10  20  50
TROY        94  67  94  72  91 /   0   0  20  20  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 281537
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1037 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH TO CHANGE WITH THE MORNING UPDATE AS TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK. BEGINNING TO SEE THE MIX OUT ALL READY AND WILL BE FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE EXPECTED TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPDATES ARE OUT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.
WINDS WILL TAKE ON A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TODAY WITH HIGHS CLOUDS
STREAMING IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

05/MA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 407 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SQUEEZE OUT ONE...MAYBE TWO...DRY DAYS BEFORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
PLAINS STATES INTO THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL LIKELY BRING A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL ALABAMA
OVER THE WEEKEND. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST...AND WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS FOR MANY AREAS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN WEST-EAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD DROP DAILY RAIN CHANCES DOWN
TO CLIMO LEVELS (AT MOST)...WHILE ALSO CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  65  94  70  90 /   0   0  10  20  60
ANNISTON    93  66  93  71  89 /   0   0  10  20  60
BIRMINGHAM  94  69  94  73  91 /   0   0  10  20  60
TUSCALOOSA  95  69  95  74  91 /   0   0  10  30  60
CALERA      94  69  94  73  91 /   0   0  10  20  60
AUBURN      93  68  94  72  90 /   0   0  10  20  50
MONTGOMERY  95  69  95  73  92 /   0   0  10  20  50
TROY        94  67  94  72  91 /   0   0  20  20  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 281130
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SQUEEZE OUT ONE...MAYBE TWO...DRY DAYS BEFORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
PLAINS STATES INTO THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL LIKELY BRING A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL ALABAMA
OVER THE WEEKEND. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST...AND WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS FOR MANY AREAS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN WEST-EAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD DROP DAILY RAIN CHANCES DOWN
TO CLIMO LEVELS (AT MOST)...WHILE ALSO CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.
WINDS WILL TAKE ON A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TODAY WITH HIGHS CLOUDS
STREAMING IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 281130
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SQUEEZE OUT ONE...MAYBE TWO...DRY DAYS BEFORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
PLAINS STATES INTO THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL LIKELY BRING A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL ALABAMA
OVER THE WEEKEND. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST...AND WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS FOR MANY AREAS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN WEST-EAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD DROP DAILY RAIN CHANCES DOWN
TO CLIMO LEVELS (AT MOST)...WHILE ALSO CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.
WINDS WILL TAKE ON A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TODAY WITH HIGHS CLOUDS
STREAMING IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 280907
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
407 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SQUEEZE OUT ONE...MAYBE TWO...DRY DAYS BEFORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
PLAINS STATES INTO THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL LIKELY BRING A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL ALABAMA
OVER THE WEEKEND. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST...AND WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS FOR MANY AREAS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN WEST-EAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD DROP DAILY RAIN CHANCES DOWN
TO CLIMO LEVELS (AT MOST)...WHILE ALSO CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  65  94  70  90 /   0   0  10  20  60
ANNISTON    93  66  93  71  89 /   0   0  10  20  60
BIRMINGHAM  94  69  94  73  91 /   0   0  10  20  60
TUSCALOOSA  95  69  95  74  91 /   0   0  10  30  60
CALERA      94  69  94  73  91 /   0   0  10  20  60
AUBURN      93  68  94  72  90 /   0   0  10  20  50
MONTGOMERY  95  69  95  73  92 /   0   0  10  20  50
TROY        94  67  94  72  91 /   0   0  20  20  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 280907
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
407 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SQUEEZE OUT ONE...MAYBE TWO...DRY DAYS BEFORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
PLAINS STATES INTO THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL LIKELY BRING A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL ALABAMA
OVER THE WEEKEND. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST...AND WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS FOR MANY AREAS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN WEST-EAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD DROP DAILY RAIN CHANCES DOWN
TO CLIMO LEVELS (AT MOST)...WHILE ALSO CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  65  94  70  90 /   0   0  10  20  60
ANNISTON    93  66  93  71  89 /   0   0  10  20  60
BIRMINGHAM  94  69  94  73  91 /   0   0  10  20  60
TUSCALOOSA  95  69  95  74  91 /   0   0  10  30  60
CALERA      94  69  94  73  91 /   0   0  10  20  60
AUBURN      93  68  94  72  90 /   0   0  10  20  50
MONTGOMERY  95  69  95  73  92 /   0   0  10  20  50
TROY        94  67  94  72  91 /   0   0  20  20  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 280432
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1132 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH SURFACE OBS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES UP OR DOWN. ADJUSTMENTS WERE AT A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT.
UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  93  64  94  69 /   0   0   0  10  20
ANNISTON    64  92  66  93  71 /   0   0   0  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  68  93  70  94  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  65  95  68  95  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
CALERA      67  93  69  93  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      66  93  67  93  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
MONTGOMERY  67  95  70  95  74 /   0   0   0  10  30
TROY        64  93  66  94  73 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 280432
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1132 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH SURFACE OBS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES UP OR DOWN. ADJUSTMENTS WERE AT A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT.
UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  93  64  94  69 /   0   0   0  10  20
ANNISTON    64  92  66  93  71 /   0   0   0  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  68  93  70  94  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  65  95  68  95  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
CALERA      67  93  69  93  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      66  93  67  93  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
MONTGOMERY  67  95  70  95  74 /   0   0   0  10  30
TROY        64  93  66  94  73 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 280324
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1024 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH SURFACE OBS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES UP OR DOWN. ADJUSTMENTS WERE AT A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT.
UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD
THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
CALM WINDS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 411 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF INTEREST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST. WE`VE HAD SOME SITES MIX OUT INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S...WITH LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST IS TO THANK FOR THE DRY EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. WE`LL HAVE ONE MORE DAY OF DRIER AIR DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY BEFORE THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT`S BEEN IN CONTROL OF A GOOD PORTION OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WET PATTERN COMING UP OVER THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY MOIST PROFILE THROUGHOUT BASED ON
MODEL SOUNDINGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF THAT WAS BEING INVESTIGATED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS TODAY.
PWATS ARE STILL BEING ADVERTISED JUST ABOVE 2.20 INCHES...WHICH IS
AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WE SHOULDN`T HAVE TO DEAL WITH ANY
SEVERE WEATHER AS THE PROFILE IS COMPLETELY SATURATED. YOU`D HAVE
TO LOOK FOR SOME DRY AIR ALOFT TO HAVE A CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG
WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES BEING ADVERTISED. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL HELP SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS AND
TAP INTO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. CURRENTLY...THE GREATEST AXIS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL BASED ON THE LATEST LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
CERTAINLY NOT TALKING ABOUT ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME...WITH MUCH OF THE STATE ABNORMALLY DRY. WE COULD BE TALKING
AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
COUNTIES IN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS. WE`LL BE REFINING AMOUNTS
AND LOCATION OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE COMING DAYS.

WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID...SEE NO REASON TO NOT INCLUDE ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE RAISED
TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE COMING DAYS ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
65. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO CLIMO
WITH UPPER HEIGHTS ON THE INCREASE. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT A FRONT HEADING OUR WAY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT THE UPPER TROUGH JUST DOESN`T LOOK DEEP ENOUGH FOR
THE FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...KEPT
CLIMO POPS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  93  64  94  69 /   0   0   0  10  20
ANNISTON    64  92  66  93  71 /   0   0   0  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  68  93  70  94  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  65  95  68  95  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
CALERA      67  93  69  93  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      66  93  67  93  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
MONTGOMERY  67  95  70  95  74 /   0   0   0  10  30
TROY        64  93  66  94  73 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 280324
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1024 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH SURFACE OBS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES UP OR DOWN. ADJUSTMENTS WERE AT A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT.
UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD
THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
CALM WINDS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 411 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF INTEREST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST. WE`VE HAD SOME SITES MIX OUT INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S...WITH LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST IS TO THANK FOR THE DRY EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. WE`LL HAVE ONE MORE DAY OF DRIER AIR DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY BEFORE THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT`S BEEN IN CONTROL OF A GOOD PORTION OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WET PATTERN COMING UP OVER THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY MOIST PROFILE THROUGHOUT BASED ON
MODEL SOUNDINGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF THAT WAS BEING INVESTIGATED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS TODAY.
PWATS ARE STILL BEING ADVERTISED JUST ABOVE 2.20 INCHES...WHICH IS
AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WE SHOULDN`T HAVE TO DEAL WITH ANY
SEVERE WEATHER AS THE PROFILE IS COMPLETELY SATURATED. YOU`D HAVE
TO LOOK FOR SOME DRY AIR ALOFT TO HAVE A CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG
WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES BEING ADVERTISED. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL HELP SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS AND
TAP INTO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. CURRENTLY...THE GREATEST AXIS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL BASED ON THE LATEST LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
CERTAINLY NOT TALKING ABOUT ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME...WITH MUCH OF THE STATE ABNORMALLY DRY. WE COULD BE TALKING
AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
COUNTIES IN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS. WE`LL BE REFINING AMOUNTS
AND LOCATION OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE COMING DAYS.

WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID...SEE NO REASON TO NOT INCLUDE ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE RAISED
TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE COMING DAYS ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
65. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO CLIMO
WITH UPPER HEIGHTS ON THE INCREASE. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT A FRONT HEADING OUR WAY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT THE UPPER TROUGH JUST DOESN`T LOOK DEEP ENOUGH FOR
THE FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...KEPT
CLIMO POPS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  93  64  94  69 /   0   0   0  10  20
ANNISTON    64  92  66  93  71 /   0   0   0  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  68  93  70  94  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  65  95  68  95  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
CALERA      67  93  69  93  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      66  93  67  93  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
MONTGOMERY  67  95  70  95  74 /   0   0   0  10  30
TROY        64  93  66  94  73 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 272331
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
631 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF INTEREST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST. WE`VE HAD SOME SITES MIX OUT INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S...WITH LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST IS TO THANK FOR THE DRY EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. WE`LL HAVE ONE MORE DAY OF DRIER AIR DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY BEFORE THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT`S BEEN IN CONTROL OF A GOOD PORTION OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WET PATTERN COMING UP OVER THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY MOIST PROFILE THROUGHOUT BASED ON
MODEL SOUNDINGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF THAT WAS BEING INVESTIGATED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS TODAY.
PWATS ARE STILL BEING ADVERTISED JUST ABOVE 2.20 INCHES...WHICH IS
AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WE SHOULDN`T HAVE TO DEAL WITH ANY
SEVERE WEATHER AS THE PROFILE IS COMPLETELY SATURATED. YOU`D HAVE
TO LOOK FOR SOME DRY AIR ALOFT TO HAVE A CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG
WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES BEING ADVERTISED. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL HELP SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS AND
TAP INTO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. CURRENTLY...THE GREATEST AXIS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL BASED ON THE LATEST LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
CERTAINLY NOT TALKING ABOUT ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME...WITH MUCH OF THE STATE ABNORMALLY DRY. WE COULD BE TALKING
AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
COUNTIES IN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS. WE`LL BE REFINING AMOUNTS
AND LOCATION OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE COMING DAYS.

WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID...SEE NO REASON TO NOT INCLUDE ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE RAISED
TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE COMING DAYS ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
65. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO CLIMO
WITH UPPER HEIGHTS ON THE INCREASE. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT A FRONT HEADING OUR WAY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT THE UPPER TROUGH JUST DOESN`T LOOK DEEP ENOUGH FOR
THE FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...KEPT
CLIMO POPS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD
THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
CALM WINDS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  93  64  94  69 /   0   0   0  10  20
ANNISTON    64  92  66  93  71 /   0   0   0  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  67  93  70  94  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  65  95  68  95  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
CALERA      67  93  69  93  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      66  93  67  93  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
MONTGOMERY  67  95  70  95  74 /   0   0   0  10  30
TROY        64  93  66  94  73 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 272331
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
631 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF INTEREST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST. WE`VE HAD SOME SITES MIX OUT INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S...WITH LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST IS TO THANK FOR THE DRY EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. WE`LL HAVE ONE MORE DAY OF DRIER AIR DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY BEFORE THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT`S BEEN IN CONTROL OF A GOOD PORTION OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WET PATTERN COMING UP OVER THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY MOIST PROFILE THROUGHOUT BASED ON
MODEL SOUNDINGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF THAT WAS BEING INVESTIGATED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS TODAY.
PWATS ARE STILL BEING ADVERTISED JUST ABOVE 2.20 INCHES...WHICH IS
AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WE SHOULDN`T HAVE TO DEAL WITH ANY
SEVERE WEATHER AS THE PROFILE IS COMPLETELY SATURATED. YOU`D HAVE
TO LOOK FOR SOME DRY AIR ALOFT TO HAVE A CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG
WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES BEING ADVERTISED. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL HELP SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS AND
TAP INTO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. CURRENTLY...THE GREATEST AXIS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL BASED ON THE LATEST LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
CERTAINLY NOT TALKING ABOUT ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME...WITH MUCH OF THE STATE ABNORMALLY DRY. WE COULD BE TALKING
AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
COUNTIES IN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS. WE`LL BE REFINING AMOUNTS
AND LOCATION OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE COMING DAYS.

WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID...SEE NO REASON TO NOT INCLUDE ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE RAISED
TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE COMING DAYS ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
65. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO CLIMO
WITH UPPER HEIGHTS ON THE INCREASE. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT A FRONT HEADING OUR WAY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT THE UPPER TROUGH JUST DOESN`T LOOK DEEP ENOUGH FOR
THE FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...KEPT
CLIMO POPS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD
THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
CALM WINDS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  93  64  94  69 /   0   0   0  10  20
ANNISTON    64  92  66  93  71 /   0   0   0  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  67  93  70  94  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  65  95  68  95  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
CALERA      67  93  69  93  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      66  93  67  93  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
MONTGOMERY  67  95  70  95  74 /   0   0   0  10  30
TROY        64  93  66  94  73 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 272111
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
411 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF INTEREST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST. WE`VE HAD SOME SITES MIX OUT INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S...WITH LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST IS TO THANK FOR THE DRY EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. WE`LL HAVE ONE MORE DAY OF DRIER AIR DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY BEFORE THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT`S BEEN IN CONTROL OF A GOOD PORTION OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WET PATTERN COMING UP OVER THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY MOIST PROFILE THROUGHOUT BASED ON
MODEL SOUNDINGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF THAT WAS BEING INVESTIGATED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS TODAY.
PWATS ARE STILL BEING ADVERTISED JUST ABOVE 2.20 INCHES...WHICH IS
AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WE SHOULDN`T HAVE TO DEAL WITH ANY
SEVERE WEATHER AS THE PROFILE IS COMPLETELY SATURATED. YOU`D HAVE
TO LOOK FOR SOME DRY AIR ALOFT TO HAVE A CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG
WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES BEING ADVERTISED. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL HELP SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS AND
TAP INTO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. CURRENTLY...THE GREATEST AXIS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL BASED ON THE LATEST LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
CERTAINLY NOT TALKING ABOUT ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME...WITH MUCH OF THE STATE ABNORMALLY DRY. WE COULD BE TALKING
AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
COUNTIES IN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS. WE`LL BE REFINING AMOUNTS
AND LOCATION OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE COMING DAYS.

WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID...SEE NO REASON TO NOT INCLUDE ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE RAISED
TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE COMING DAYS ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
65. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO CLIMO
WITH UPPER HEIGHTS ON THE INCREASE. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT A FRONT HEADING OUR WAY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT THE UPPER TROUGH JUST DOESN`T LOOK DEEP ENOUGH FOR
THE FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...KEPT
CLIMO POPS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT EXCEPT
IN THE 5-6KFT RANGE WHERE FEW-SCT CU WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO SUNSET.
EASTERLY SURFACE WIND COMPONENT WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. STEFKOVICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  93  64  94  69 /   0   0   0  10  20
ANNISTON    64  92  66  93  71 /   0   0   0  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  67  93  70  94  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  65  95  68  95  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
CALERA      67  93  69  93  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      66  93  67  93  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
MONTGOMERY  67  95  70  95  74 /   0   0   0  10  30
TROY        64  93  66  94  73 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 272111
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
411 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF INTEREST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST. WE`VE HAD SOME SITES MIX OUT INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S...WITH LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST IS TO THANK FOR THE DRY EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. WE`LL HAVE ONE MORE DAY OF DRIER AIR DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY BEFORE THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT`S BEEN IN CONTROL OF A GOOD PORTION OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WET PATTERN COMING UP OVER THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY MOIST PROFILE THROUGHOUT BASED ON
MODEL SOUNDINGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF THAT WAS BEING INVESTIGATED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS TODAY.
PWATS ARE STILL BEING ADVERTISED JUST ABOVE 2.20 INCHES...WHICH IS
AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WE SHOULDN`T HAVE TO DEAL WITH ANY
SEVERE WEATHER AS THE PROFILE IS COMPLETELY SATURATED. YOU`D HAVE
TO LOOK FOR SOME DRY AIR ALOFT TO HAVE A CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG
WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES BEING ADVERTISED. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL HELP SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS AND
TAP INTO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. CURRENTLY...THE GREATEST AXIS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL BASED ON THE LATEST LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
CERTAINLY NOT TALKING ABOUT ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME...WITH MUCH OF THE STATE ABNORMALLY DRY. WE COULD BE TALKING
AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
COUNTIES IN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS. WE`LL BE REFINING AMOUNTS
AND LOCATION OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE COMING DAYS.

WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID...SEE NO REASON TO NOT INCLUDE ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE RAISED
TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE COMING DAYS ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
65. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO CLIMO
WITH UPPER HEIGHTS ON THE INCREASE. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT A FRONT HEADING OUR WAY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT THE UPPER TROUGH JUST DOESN`T LOOK DEEP ENOUGH FOR
THE FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...KEPT
CLIMO POPS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT EXCEPT
IN THE 5-6KFT RANGE WHERE FEW-SCT CU WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO SUNSET.
EASTERLY SURFACE WIND COMPONENT WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. STEFKOVICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  93  64  94  69 /   0   0   0  10  20
ANNISTON    64  92  66  93  71 /   0   0   0  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  67  93  70  94  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  65  95  68  95  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
CALERA      67  93  69  93  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      66  93  67  93  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
MONTGOMERY  67  95  70  95  74 /   0   0   0  10  30
TROY        64  93  66  94  73 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 271759
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1259 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST BASICALLY FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT INCREASE OF
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CWA. REST OF FORECAST FOR TODAY
ON TRACK. STEFKOVICH


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT EXCEPT
IN THE 5-6KFT RANGE WHERE FEW-SCT CU WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO SUNSET.
EASTERLY SURFACE WIND COMPONENT WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. STEFKOVICH

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 271759
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1259 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST BASICALLY FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT INCREASE OF
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CWA. REST OF FORECAST FOR TODAY
ON TRACK. STEFKOVICH


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT EXCEPT
IN THE 5-6KFT RANGE WHERE FEW-SCT CU WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO SUNSET.
EASTERLY SURFACE WIND COMPONENT WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. STEFKOVICH

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 271538
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1038 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST BASICALLY FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT INCREASE OF
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CWA. REST OF FORECAST FOR TODAY
ON TRACK. STEFKOVICH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 623 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO THE POINT WHERE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME BACK
INTO THE FORECAST. ALSO HELPING TO SET OFF THE RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...ALONG WITH OTHER SMALLER
DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE GULF INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES (WITH MAXIMIZED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES) WILL COME ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BEYOND
THAT...LOWER MODEL AGREEMENT LEADS ME TO GO WITH A LARGELY CLIMO
BASED FORECAST. AFTER A RATHER WARM STRETCH OF DAYS THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK...THE RAIN CHANCES...ADDED CLOUDS...AND LOWER
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL ALL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT LESS WARM CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  64  95  66  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    91  65  93  68  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  93  68  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  95  67  96  70  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      93  68  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      91  67  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  94  67  95  69  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        92  66  94  67  94 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 271538
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1038 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST BASICALLY FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT INCREASE OF
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CWA. REST OF FORECAST FOR TODAY
ON TRACK. STEFKOVICH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 623 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO THE POINT WHERE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME BACK
INTO THE FORECAST. ALSO HELPING TO SET OFF THE RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...ALONG WITH OTHER SMALLER
DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE GULF INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES (WITH MAXIMIZED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES) WILL COME ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BEYOND
THAT...LOWER MODEL AGREEMENT LEADS ME TO GO WITH A LARGELY CLIMO
BASED FORECAST. AFTER A RATHER WARM STRETCH OF DAYS THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK...THE RAIN CHANCES...ADDED CLOUDS...AND LOWER
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL ALL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT LESS WARM CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  64  95  66  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    91  65  93  68  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  93  68  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  95  67  96  70  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      93  68  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      91  67  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  94  67  95  69  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        92  66  94  67  94 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 271123
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
623 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO THE POINT WHERE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME BACK
INTO THE FORECAST. ALSO HELPING TO SET OFF THE RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...ALONG WITH OTHER SMALLER
DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE GULF INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES (WITH MAXIMIZED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES) WILL COME ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BEYOND
THAT...LOWER MODEL AGREEMENT LEADS ME TO GO WITH A LARGELY CLIMO
BASED FORECAST. AFTER A RATHER WARM STRETCH OF DAYS THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK...THE RAIN CHANCES...ADDED CLOUDS...AND LOWER
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL ALL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT LESS WARM CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

61/87






000
FXUS64 KBMX 271123
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
623 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO THE POINT WHERE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME BACK
INTO THE FORECAST. ALSO HELPING TO SET OFF THE RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...ALONG WITH OTHER SMALLER
DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE GULF INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES (WITH MAXIMIZED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES) WILL COME ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BEYOND
THAT...LOWER MODEL AGREEMENT LEADS ME TO GO WITH A LARGELY CLIMO
BASED FORECAST. AFTER A RATHER WARM STRETCH OF DAYS THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK...THE RAIN CHANCES...ADDED CLOUDS...AND LOWER
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL ALL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT LESS WARM CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

61/87







000
FXUS64 KBMX 270925
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
425 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO THE POINT WHERE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME BACK
INTO THE FORECAST. ALSO HELPING TO SET OFF THE RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...ALONG WITH OTHER SMALLER
DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE GULF INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES (WITH MAXIMIZED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES) WILL COME ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BEYOND
THAT...LOWER MODEL AGREEMENT LEADS ME TO GO WITH A LARGELY CLIMO
BASED FORECAST. AFTER A RATHER WARM STRETCH OF DAYS THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK...THE RAIN CHANCES...ADDED CLOUDS...AND LOWER
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL ALL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT LESS WARM CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE STATE. CLEAR AND CALM TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  64  95  66  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    91  65  93  68  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  93  68  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  95  67  96  70  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      93  68  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      91  67  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  94  67  95  69  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        92  66  94  67  94 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 270925
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
425 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO THE POINT WHERE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME BACK
INTO THE FORECAST. ALSO HELPING TO SET OFF THE RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...ALONG WITH OTHER SMALLER
DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE GULF INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES (WITH MAXIMIZED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES) WILL COME ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BEYOND
THAT...LOWER MODEL AGREEMENT LEADS ME TO GO WITH A LARGELY CLIMO
BASED FORECAST. AFTER A RATHER WARM STRETCH OF DAYS THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK...THE RAIN CHANCES...ADDED CLOUDS...AND LOWER
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL ALL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT LESS WARM CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE STATE. CLEAR AND CALM TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  64  95  66  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    91  65  93  68  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  93  68  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  95  67  96  70  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      93  68  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      91  67  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  94  67  95  69  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        92  66  94  67  94 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 270444
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1144 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
CONTINUES ITS DOMINATION OF ALABAMA WEATHER. DRY AND COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS ALL LOCATIONS WILL DROP
INTO THE 60S. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND DID NOT NEED ANY
MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS. REFRESHER FORECAST ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE STATE. CLEAR AND CALM TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  91  65  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  67  93  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  66  94  66  95  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      67  92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      67  90  67  94  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  68  94  67  95  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  92  64  94  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 270444
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1144 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
CONTINUES ITS DOMINATION OF ALABAMA WEATHER. DRY AND COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS ALL LOCATIONS WILL DROP
INTO THE 60S. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND DID NOT NEED ANY
MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS. REFRESHER FORECAST ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE STATE. CLEAR AND CALM TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  91  65  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  67  93  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  66  94  66  95  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      67  92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      67  90  67  94  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  68  94  67  95  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  92  64  94  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 270314
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1014 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
CONTINUES ITS DOMINATION OF ALABAMA WEATHER. DRY AND COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS ALL LOCATIONS WILL DROP
INTO THE 60S. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND DID NOT NEED ANY
MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS. REFRESHER FORECAST ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. EXPECT CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY
AIR MASS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

VERY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THIS MORNING`S KBMX 12Z SOUNDING MEASURING
PWATS OF 0.75 INCHES. THIS IS LOWER THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTH WERE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED.
DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ONE MORE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE BEGINS ON THURSDAY. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY IN CONTROL WILL QUICKLY BUILD OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF CRISTOBAL IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ADVECT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI. IF THIS VERIFIES...WE COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWATS COULD RISE TO 2.20 INCHES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI SPREADING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH
THE AGREEMENT THAT`S CURRENTLY THERE...HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. OVER THE COMING DAYS...WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TRENDS EMERGE SO FOLKS CAN PLAN ACCORDINGLY
WHO ARE GOING TO BE OUTDOORS. THE WET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE CLIMO POPS CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  91  65  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  67  93  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  66  94  66  95  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      67  92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      67  90  67  94  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  68  94  67  95  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        66  92  64  94  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









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