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000
FXUS64 KBMX 280424
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1124 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The combination of moist southerly low level flow and weak
convergence has resulted in shower bands on radar tonight. Have
not been able to find an observation or report of any rain making
it to the ground yet. There has been recent enhancement in
reflectivity and would not be surprised if a few locations were
seeing sprinkles or light rain.

Expect this banding of light rain to continue as a shortwave
approaches the area from the west. Later tonight, have
added thunder as the shortwave crosses northwest Central Alabama.
Expect most locations to be dry, but have expanded low POPs to
include more of the area. Temperature trends are on track.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Weak forcing has produced some isolated light showers this evening
in mainly the western sections of the area and 00Z NAM is indicating
some very light rainfall in the northwest section of the state
through 12z. However believe much of the precipitation on radar
is not reaching the surface and even that which is isolated and
very light so current thinking is to not include any SHRA in 06z
TAFs. Otherwise cigs generally above 10 kft have overspread the
area and should continue overnight. Look for cumulus to redevelop
after 15z across the area with mid to high level cigs above but in
general VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Isolated TSRA expected to develop across the area mainly after 18Z
Saturday during the heat of the day but chance of any particular
terminal being affected by a storm is very low and precludes
mentioning them in TAFS at this time.

41

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Mostly dry conditions with above normal temperatures are expected
through the weekend with only minimal rain chances. There are no
fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     64  85  63  89  66 /  20  30  10  20  10
Anniston    66  85  64  88  66 /  20  20  10  20  10
Birmingham  68  85  67  89  69 /  20  20  10  20  10
Tuscaloosa  69  88  66  91  69 /  20  20  10  20  10
Calera      68  85  66  90  68 /  20  10  10  20  10
Auburn      66  86  65  89  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
Montgomery  67  88  67  92  70 /  20  10  10  10  10
Troy        65  87  66  91  69 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 271146
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
646 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Still no obvious major synoptic scale system coming to us over the
next 7 days, so our weather will remain largely driven by the
mesoscale. Westerly to southwesterly upper level flow will keep
all the main action to our west and north through most of the
period. Really hard to identify any time periods where chances of
convection are more enhanced compared to any other. Perhaps Friday
night or Saturday, when a weak upper level shortwave trough zips
through the region. Will also keep an eye on potential tropical or
sub-tropical development off the east coast, but that system (based
on latest computer model projections) would not be a direct factor
in our weather. So, will continue to go with 20 to 30 percent POPs
at most, largely diurnally driven. The bulk of the period will
also be dominated by temps that are above seasonal normals.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

With an increase in the mean relative humidity there will be more
clouds both high and mid level by the afternoon. Broken cumulus
around 5K feet will likely develop after 18Z. Some isolated TSRA
may also develop during the afternoon... especially eastern
sections of area...but the chance for any one taf site receiving a
storm too low to include in forecast at this time. Overall VFR
conditions and light south to southeast flow should be dominant
throughout the period.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Mostly dry conditions with above normal temperatures are expected
through the weekend with only minimal rain chances. There are no
fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     89  64  86  63  89 /  30  20  20  10  10
Anniston    88  66  86  64  88 /  20  20  20  10  10
Birmingham  90  68  85  67  90 /  20  20  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  91  69  88  67  91 /  10  10  20  10  10
Calera      89  68  86  66  90 /  10  10  10  10  10
Auburn      88  66  88  66  90 /  10   0  10  10  10
Montgomery  92  67  89  67  92 /  10  10  10  10  10
Troy        91  65  88  66  91 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 270444 AAA
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1144 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and storms did remain west of Central Alabama this
evening, with activity currently confined close to the Mississippi
River. This activity will remain west of the area overnight as
mid level ridging and slightly drier air aloft remains dominant
over Central Alabama.

The cirrus shield from convection to our west will continue to
spread across the area. As a result of this added cloud cover
and a warmer hourly temp trend, will bump overnight lows up a
couple degrees in most locations. No other updates needed at this
time.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Light southerly flow continues this evening with sct to bkn cirrus
spreading across the area from earlier convection to our and north
and west. VFR conditions will prevail overnight although some patchy
light fog could develop vcnty TOI and MGM toward daybreak so have
continued with tempo groups those areas after 09Z. Precipitable
water increases some during the day Friday and soundings indicate
that broken cumulus around 5K feet will likely develop after 15Z.
Some isolated TSRA may also develop during the afternoon...
especially eastern sections of area...but the chance for any one taf
site receiving a storm too low to include in forecast at this time.
Overall VFR conditions and light south to southeast flow should be
dominant throughout the period.

41


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Mostly dry conditions with above normal temperatures are expected
through the week with only minimal rain chances. There are no fire
weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/Issued 702 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

A MCS is pushing southward through TN this evening as another MCS
pushes southward through far southeast TX. Between these two
complexes, showers and thunderstorms are filling in as a shortwave
approaches the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Near-term HI-RES
guidance shows the focus for activity remaining west of Central
Alabama this evening, as the TN MCS shifts slightly to the WSW.
Over the last hour, lighting activity on the eastern extent of the
line has decreased and current radar trends show the western
portion of the line becoming more dominant. As this line sinks
southward, it`s possible a few showers or thunderstorms could
affect northwest Central Alabama, and have added POPs for the next
few hours.

Elsewhere, a stray shower or storm is possible across the
southwest for the next couple hours as daytime heating wanes.
Coverage will be low, and will handle with a 10 POP.

Temperature trends are good right now. However, not confident on
how the increasing cirrus shield will affect cooling tonight.
Will re-assess temperatures in a few hours.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     64  89  61  87  60 /  10  30  20  10  10
Anniston    67  89  63  87  62 /  10  20  20  10  10
Birmingham  71  90  67  86  66 /  10  10  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  69  90  66  87  67 /  10  10  20  20  10
Calera      68  89  67  86  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
Auburn      66  88  64  87  63 /  10  10   0  10   0
Montgomery  68  91  66  89  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
Troy        66  90  63  89  59 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 262008
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
308 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure centered over Alabama will gradually weaken over the
next several days as an upper trof over the central plains states
shifts slightly eastward and an upper low lifts northwest towards
the Carolinas. Precipitable water values will increase to near 1.5
inches by Friday which will also help the air mass support more
diurnal convection. In this type of set-up, once convection gets
going it could really increase due to outflow boundaries and steep
low level lapse rates. By Saturday drier mid level air on the back
side of the developing tropical system will push into Georgia and
east Alabama. This will keep the better rain chances on Saturday
for areas west of I-65. The influx of Atlantic moisture on
Saturday will also provide a temporary respite from heat, if only
a few degrees.

After Saturday the low level and mid level flow becomes northerly
as the low pressure system near the Carolinas shifts northward.
This will result in warmer daytime temperatures and less diurnal
convection. Possibly an increase in rain chances across north
Alabama Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper level trof approaches
from the north.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

A few fair weather cumulus are developing across the south and
eastern locations. Winds will remain from the south at around 5
to 10 kts as high pressure remains centered off the east coast. A
few random gusts have been reported to 16kts but nothing
sustained.

88


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Mostly dry conditions with above normal temperatures are expected
through the week with only minimal rain chances. There are no fire
weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  89  61  87  60 /  10  30  20  10  10
Anniston    65  89  63  87  62 /  10  20  20  10  10
Birmingham  67  90  67  86  66 /  10  10  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  66  90  66  87  67 /   0  10  20  20  10
Calera      66  89  67  86  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
Auburn      66  88  64  87  63 /  10  10   0  10   0
Montgomery  66  91  66  89  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
Troy        63  90  63  89  59 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 260445
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1145 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Evening showers across the northwest counties quickly dissipated
after sunset. Conditions will remain rain free overnight as remnant
mainly high clouds from earlier convection to our west will drift
eastward overnight. Remainder of the forecast remains on track.

05


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Terminals will remain rain free with some passing higher level
clouds overnight, especially at our southeast sites. Winds
quickly nearing calm at this hour and that trend looks to persist
through early on Thursday. Some minor reductions in visibility may
materialize at our eastern terminals at ANB/ASN/TOI toward
sunrise but should clear toward 14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail through the forecast period.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions are expected through the week with only minimal
rain chances. Low level moisture will slowly increase through the
end of the week. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     60  89  62  89  62 /  10  10  10  20  10
Anniston    63  90  65  90  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
Birmingham  66  90  67  90  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  63  91  66  91  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
Calera      65  91  66  91  66 /  10  10  10  10   0
Auburn      66  88  66  88  66 /   0  10  10  10   0
Montgomery  66  92  66  92  66 /   0  10  10  10   0
Troy        64  91  64  91  64 /   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$





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