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000
FXUS64 KBMX 302002
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR NORTH OF THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-85
CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND THEN PUSH BACK NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY
TO FORM ALONG AND SOUTH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. THE PRIMARY FOCUS
WILL BE THE WARM FRONT...SO THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS AND SB CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG...SO SOME
STORMS STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE THREAT WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0 C.

THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH NUDGING INTO EAST ALABAMA. CONVECTION WILL
ONCE AGAIN FIRE UP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BRING VERY WARM AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
LOWER 80S LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WOULD LIKE
TO SEE A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE INCLUDING ANY SEVERE IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN INTACT AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE BRINGS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOST OF THE RAIN HAS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOW BETWEEN KEET AND KMGM. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS ERODING AT THE NORTHERN SITES
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AT KMGM AND KTOI. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE BY
00Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CEILINGS
AROUND 4-5K FEET DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN TOWARD 12Z...AND LOWERING TO
AROUND 2500 FEET BY 15Z-18Z. AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA ALSO POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z...BUT CHANCES AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KMGM AND
ESPECIALLY KTOI TOWARD 12Z SO HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN TAFS.

/41/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  70  51  75  56 /   0  50  40  40  30
ANNISTON    45  72  53  76  57 /   0  50  40  30  30
BIRMINGHAM  47  71  55  78  59 /   0  50  40  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  53  74  57  79  60 /   0  50  40  40  30
CALERA      50  73  57  78  59 /   0  50  50  40  30
AUBURN      51  73  56  78  58 /   0  50  40  40  30
MONTGOMERY  55  77  59  80  60 /  10  50  40  40  30
TROY        54  78  59  80  59 /  10  40  40  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 301712
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1211 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF
I-20...ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINK
SOUTHWARD AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ERODE THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO PRESENCE OF SURFACE FRONT.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOST OF THE RAIN HAS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOW BETWEEN KEET AND KMGM. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS ERODING AT THE NORTHERN SITES
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AT KMGM AND KTOI. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE BY
00Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CEILINGS
AROUND 4-5K FEET DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN TOWARD 12Z...AND LOWERING TO
AROUND 2500 FEET BY 15Z-18Z. AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA ALSO POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z...BUT CHANCES AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KMGM AND
ESPECIALLY KTOI TOWARD 12Z SO HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN TAFS.

/41/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  70  51  75 /  50   0  40  40  40
ANNISTON    70  43  72  54  77 /  80  10  40  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  48  73  56  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  73  52  76  57  79 /  50  10  40  40  40
CALERA      70  50  74  58  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
AUBURN      71  49  74  56  79 /  80  10  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75  55  78  59  80 /  80  10  40  40  40
TROY        74  54  78  59  79 /  80  20  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 301712
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1211 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF
I-20...ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINK
SOUTHWARD AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ERODE THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO PRESENCE OF SURFACE FRONT.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOST OF THE RAIN HAS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOW BETWEEN KEET AND KMGM. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS ERODING AT THE NORTHERN SITES
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AT KMGM AND KTOI. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE BY
00Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CEILINGS
AROUND 4-5K FEET DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN TOWARD 12Z...AND LOWERING TO
AROUND 2500 FEET BY 15Z-18Z. AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA ALSO POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z...BUT CHANCES AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KMGM AND
ESPECIALLY KTOI TOWARD 12Z SO HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN TAFS.

/41/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  70  51  75 /  50   0  40  40  40
ANNISTON    70  43  72  54  77 /  80  10  40  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  48  73  56  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  73  52  76  57  79 /  50  10  40  40  40
CALERA      70  50  74  58  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
AUBURN      71  49  74  56  79 /  80  10  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75  55  78  59  80 /  80  10  40  40  40
TROY        74  54  78  59  79 /  80  20  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 301712
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1211 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF
I-20...ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINK
SOUTHWARD AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ERODE THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO PRESENCE OF SURFACE FRONT.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOST OF THE RAIN HAS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOW BETWEEN KEET AND KMGM. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS ERODING AT THE NORTHERN SITES
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AT KMGM AND KTOI. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE BY
00Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CEILINGS
AROUND 4-5K FEET DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN TOWARD 12Z...AND LOWERING TO
AROUND 2500 FEET BY 15Z-18Z. AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA ALSO POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z...BUT CHANCES AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KMGM AND
ESPECIALLY KTOI TOWARD 12Z SO HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN TAFS.

/41/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  70  51  75 /  50   0  40  40  40
ANNISTON    70  43  72  54  77 /  80  10  40  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  48  73  56  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  73  52  76  57  79 /  50  10  40  40  40
CALERA      70  50  74  58  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
AUBURN      71  49  74  56  79 /  80  10  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75  55  78  59  80 /  80  10  40  40  40
TROY        74  54  78  59  79 /  80  20  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 301712
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1211 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF
I-20...ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINK
SOUTHWARD AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ERODE THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO PRESENCE OF SURFACE FRONT.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOST OF THE RAIN HAS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOW BETWEEN KEET AND KMGM. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS ERODING AT THE NORTHERN SITES
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AT KMGM AND KTOI. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE BY
00Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CEILINGS
AROUND 4-5K FEET DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN TOWARD 12Z...AND LOWERING TO
AROUND 2500 FEET BY 15Z-18Z. AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA ALSO POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z...BUT CHANCES AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KMGM AND
ESPECIALLY KTOI TOWARD 12Z SO HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN TAFS.

/41/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  70  51  75 /  50   0  40  40  40
ANNISTON    70  43  72  54  77 /  80  10  40  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  48  73  56  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  73  52  76  57  79 /  50  10  40  40  40
CALERA      70  50  74  58  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
AUBURN      71  49  74  56  79 /  80  10  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75  55  78  59  80 /  80  10  40  40  40
TROY        74  54  78  59  79 /  80  20  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 301511
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1011 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF
I-20...ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINK
SOUTHWARD AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ERODE THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO PRESENCE OF SURFACE FRONT.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CLEAR EXPECTED WITHIN A COUPLE OF OURS AFTER THE RAIN
MOVES OUT. I`VE TRIED TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN IN THE
SOUTH...AND THE EXIT OF THE RAIN IN THE NORTH...AS BEST I CAN.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  70  51  75 /  50   0  40  40  40
ANNISTON    70  43  72  54  77 /  80  10  40  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  48  73  56  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  73  52  76  57  79 /  50  10  40  40  40
CALERA      70  50  74  58  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
AUBURN      71  49  74  56  79 /  80  10  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75  55  78  59  80 /  80  10  40  40  40
TROY        74  54  78  59  79 /  80  20  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 301511
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1011 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF
I-20...ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINK
SOUTHWARD AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ERODE THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO PRESENCE OF SURFACE FRONT.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CLEAR EXPECTED WITHIN A COUPLE OF OURS AFTER THE RAIN
MOVES OUT. I`VE TRIED TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN IN THE
SOUTH...AND THE EXIT OF THE RAIN IN THE NORTH...AS BEST I CAN.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  70  51  75 /  50   0  40  40  40
ANNISTON    70  43  72  54  77 /  80  10  40  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  48  73  56  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  73  52  76  57  79 /  50  10  40  40  40
CALERA      70  50  74  58  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
AUBURN      71  49  74  56  79 /  80  10  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75  55  78  59  80 /  80  10  40  40  40
TROY        74  54  78  59  79 /  80  20  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 301144
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CLEAR EXPECTED WITHIN A COUPLE OF OURS AFTER THE RAIN
MOVES OUT. I`VE TRIED TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN IN THE
SOUTH...AND THE EXIT OF THE RAIN IN THE NORTH...AS BEST I CAN.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 301144
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CLEAR EXPECTED WITHIN A COUPLE OF OURS AFTER THE RAIN
MOVES OUT. I`VE TRIED TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN IN THE
SOUTH...AND THE EXIT OF THE RAIN IN THE NORTH...AS BEST I CAN.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 301144
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CLEAR EXPECTED WITHIN A COUPLE OF OURS AFTER THE RAIN
MOVES OUT. I`VE TRIED TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN IN THE
SOUTH...AND THE EXIT OF THE RAIN IN THE NORTH...AS BEST I CAN.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 301144
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CLEAR EXPECTED WITHIN A COUPLE OF OURS AFTER THE RAIN
MOVES OUT. I`VE TRIED TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN IN THE
SOUTH...AND THE EXIT OF THE RAIN IN THE NORTH...AS BEST I CAN.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 300916
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
416 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN MS/WRN AL AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NW OF CENTRAL AL. MODELS AND
GUIDANCE SHOW FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT OBS ARE
SLOW TO INDICATE SAID FORMATION AND WILL BE GAME-TIME DECISION ON
EXACT TIMING. OTHERWISE...LEANED ON HRRR FOR TIMING OF PRECIP BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. ONLY WENT MVFR NOW...OF COURSE PENDING MORE
PRECISE TIMING OF RA/TSTMS. FRONT CLEARS TCL/BHM/ASN/ANB/EET
AROUND 18Z...BUT FRONT SLOWS AND DISOLVES MORE OR LESS ACROSS
LOWER ALABAMA...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

JD/02


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  70  51  75 /  50   0  40  40  40
ANNISTON    70  43  72  54  77 /  60  10  40  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  70  48  73  56  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  73  52  76  57  79 /  50  10  40  40  40
CALERA      71  50  74  58  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
AUBURN      71  49  74  56  79 /  60  10  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75  55  78  59  80 /  60  10  40  40  40
TROY        74  54  78  59  79 /  60  20  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300916
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
416 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN MS/WRN AL AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NW OF CENTRAL AL. MODELS AND
GUIDANCE SHOW FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT OBS ARE
SLOW TO INDICATE SAID FORMATION AND WILL BE GAME-TIME DECISION ON
EXACT TIMING. OTHERWISE...LEANED ON HRRR FOR TIMING OF PRECIP BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. ONLY WENT MVFR NOW...OF COURSE PENDING MORE
PRECISE TIMING OF RA/TSTMS. FRONT CLEARS TCL/BHM/ASN/ANB/EET
AROUND 18Z...BUT FRONT SLOWS AND DISOLVES MORE OR LESS ACROSS
LOWER ALABAMA...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

JD/02


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  70  51  75 /  50   0  40  40  40
ANNISTON    70  43  72  54  77 /  60  10  40  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  70  48  73  56  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  73  52  76  57  79 /  50  10  40  40  40
CALERA      71  50  74  58  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
AUBURN      71  49  74  56  79 /  60  10  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75  55  78  59  80 /  60  10  40  40  40
TROY        74  54  78  59  79 /  60  20  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 300916
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
416 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN MS/WRN AL AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NW OF CENTRAL AL. MODELS AND
GUIDANCE SHOW FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT OBS ARE
SLOW TO INDICATE SAID FORMATION AND WILL BE GAME-TIME DECISION ON
EXACT TIMING. OTHERWISE...LEANED ON HRRR FOR TIMING OF PRECIP BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. ONLY WENT MVFR NOW...OF COURSE PENDING MORE
PRECISE TIMING OF RA/TSTMS. FRONT CLEARS TCL/BHM/ASN/ANB/EET
AROUND 18Z...BUT FRONT SLOWS AND DISOLVES MORE OR LESS ACROSS
LOWER ALABAMA...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

JD/02


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  70  51  75 /  50   0  40  40  40
ANNISTON    70  43  72  54  77 /  60  10  40  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  70  48  73  56  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  73  52  76  57  79 /  50  10  40  40  40
CALERA      71  50  74  58  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
AUBURN      71  49  74  56  79 /  60  10  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75  55  78  59  80 /  60  10  40  40  40
TROY        74  54  78  59  79 /  60  20  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300916
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
416 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN MS/WRN AL AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NW OF CENTRAL AL. MODELS AND
GUIDANCE SHOW FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT OBS ARE
SLOW TO INDICATE SAID FORMATION AND WILL BE GAME-TIME DECISION ON
EXACT TIMING. OTHERWISE...LEANED ON HRRR FOR TIMING OF PRECIP BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. ONLY WENT MVFR NOW...OF COURSE PENDING MORE
PRECISE TIMING OF RA/TSTMS. FRONT CLEARS TCL/BHM/ASN/ANB/EET
AROUND 18Z...BUT FRONT SLOWS AND DISOLVES MORE OR LESS ACROSS
LOWER ALABAMA...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

JD/02


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  41  70  51  75 /  50   0  40  40  40
ANNISTON    70  43  72  54  77 /  60  10  40  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  70  48  73  56  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  73  52  76  57  79 /  50  10  40  40  40
CALERA      71  50  74  58  78 /  60  10  40  40  40
AUBURN      71  49  74  56  79 /  60  10  40  40  40
MONTGOMERY  75  55  78  59  80 /  60  10  40  40  40
TROY        74  54  78  59  79 /  60  20  40  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 300459
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1159 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE HELP OF SHORT-RANGE MODELS...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POPS FOR TONIGHT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT NEAR I-20. EXPECTING
GOOD ENOUGH COVERAGE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT TO
RAISE POPS TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND DEWPOINTS AREA-WIDE WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN MS/WRN AL AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NW OF CENTRAL AL. MODELS AND
GUIDANCE SHOW FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT OBS ARE
SLOW TO INDICATE SAID FORMATION AND WILL BE GAME-TIME DECISION ON
EXACT TIMING. OTHERWISE...LEANED ON HRRR FOR TIMING OF PRECIP BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. ONLY WENT MVFR NOW...OF COURSE PENDING MORE
PRECISE TIMING OF RA/TSTMS. FRONT CLEARS TCL/BHM/ASN/ANB/EET
AROUND 18Z...BUT FRONT SLOWS AND DISOLVES MORE OR LESS ACROSS
LOWER ALABAMA...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  69  41  71  51 /  90  60  10  40  30
ANNISTON    50  69  44  74  54 /  70  60  10  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  54  70  48  74  56 /  90  60  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  57  73  52  75  57 /  70  50  10  40  30
CALERA      52  71  50  74  58 /  50  60  10  40  30
AUBURN      48  72  49  74  56 /  10  60  20  40  30
MONTGOMERY  53  76  55  78  59 /  10  50  20  40  30
TROY        50  76  54  79  59 /  10  50  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 300459
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1159 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE HELP OF SHORT-RANGE MODELS...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POPS FOR TONIGHT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT NEAR I-20. EXPECTING
GOOD ENOUGH COVERAGE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT TO
RAISE POPS TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND DEWPOINTS AREA-WIDE WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN MS/WRN AL AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NW OF CENTRAL AL. MODELS AND
GUIDANCE SHOW FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT OBS ARE
SLOW TO INDICATE SAID FORMATION AND WILL BE GAME-TIME DECISION ON
EXACT TIMING. OTHERWISE...LEANED ON HRRR FOR TIMING OF PRECIP BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. ONLY WENT MVFR NOW...OF COURSE PENDING MORE
PRECISE TIMING OF RA/TSTMS. FRONT CLEARS TCL/BHM/ASN/ANB/EET
AROUND 18Z...BUT FRONT SLOWS AND DISOLVES MORE OR LESS ACROSS
LOWER ALABAMA...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  69  41  71  51 /  90  60  10  40  30
ANNISTON    50  69  44  74  54 /  70  60  10  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  54  70  48  74  56 /  90  60  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  57  73  52  75  57 /  70  50  10  40  30
CALERA      52  71  50  74  58 /  50  60  10  40  30
AUBURN      48  72  49  74  56 /  10  60  20  40  30
MONTGOMERY  53  76  55  78  59 /  10  50  20  40  30
TROY        50  76  54  79  59 /  10  50  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300459
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1159 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE HELP OF SHORT-RANGE MODELS...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POPS FOR TONIGHT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT NEAR I-20. EXPECTING
GOOD ENOUGH COVERAGE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT TO
RAISE POPS TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND DEWPOINTS AREA-WIDE WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN MS/WRN AL AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NW OF CENTRAL AL. MODELS AND
GUIDANCE SHOW FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT OBS ARE
SLOW TO INDICATE SAID FORMATION AND WILL BE GAME-TIME DECISION ON
EXACT TIMING. OTHERWISE...LEANED ON HRRR FOR TIMING OF PRECIP BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. ONLY WENT MVFR NOW...OF COURSE PENDING MORE
PRECISE TIMING OF RA/TSTMS. FRONT CLEARS TCL/BHM/ASN/ANB/EET
AROUND 18Z...BUT FRONT SLOWS AND DISOLVES MORE OR LESS ACROSS
LOWER ALABAMA...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  69  41  71  51 /  90  60  10  40  30
ANNISTON    50  69  44  74  54 /  70  60  10  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  54  70  48  74  56 /  90  60  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  57  73  52  75  57 /  70  50  10  40  30
CALERA      52  71  50  74  58 /  50  60  10  40  30
AUBURN      48  72  49  74  56 /  10  60  20  40  30
MONTGOMERY  53  76  55  78  59 /  10  50  20  40  30
TROY        50  76  54  79  59 /  10  50  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 300459
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1159 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE HELP OF SHORT-RANGE MODELS...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POPS FOR TONIGHT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT NEAR I-20. EXPECTING
GOOD ENOUGH COVERAGE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT TO
RAISE POPS TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND DEWPOINTS AREA-WIDE WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN MS/WRN AL AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NW OF CENTRAL AL. MODELS AND
GUIDANCE SHOW FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT OBS ARE
SLOW TO INDICATE SAID FORMATION AND WILL BE GAME-TIME DECISION ON
EXACT TIMING. OTHERWISE...LEANED ON HRRR FOR TIMING OF PRECIP BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. ONLY WENT MVFR NOW...OF COURSE PENDING MORE
PRECISE TIMING OF RA/TSTMS. FRONT CLEARS TCL/BHM/ASN/ANB/EET
AROUND 18Z...BUT FRONT SLOWS AND DISOLVES MORE OR LESS ACROSS
LOWER ALABAMA...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  69  41  71  51 /  90  60  10  40  30
ANNISTON    50  69  44  74  54 /  70  60  10  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  54  70  48  74  56 /  90  60  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  57  73  52  75  57 /  70  50  10  40  30
CALERA      52  71  50  74  58 /  50  60  10  40  30
AUBURN      48  72  49  74  56 /  10  60  20  40  30
MONTGOMERY  53  76  55  78  59 /  10  50  20  40  30
TROY        50  76  54  79  59 /  10  50  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300233
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
933 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE HELP OF SHORT-RANGE MODELS...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POPS FOR TONIGHT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT NEAR I-20. EXPECTING
GOOD ENOUGH COVERAGE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT TO
RAISE POPS TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND DEWPOINTS AREA-WIDE WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN THEME OF TAFS CONTINUE WITH APPROACHING FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO TAFS
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TIMING OF A RELATIVELY NARROW SYSTEM...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z EVEN AT NORTHERN SITES.
SIMILARLY DELAYED ONSET OF -RA/TSTMS BY A FEW HOURS...AND TRIED TO
COMPRESS THE TIME BELOW VFR DUE TO NARROWNESS OF FEATURE. ALTHOUGH
TAF LENGTH PRECLUDES IT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO WORK IN FROM N
TO S AFTER 18Z TOMORROW. MAINTAINED CONCEPT OF LIMITED PRECIP AT
MGM AND TOI AS WEAKENED FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT WITH THAT ASPECT OF THE TAFS THERE AND MAY NEED TO ADD
MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LATER.

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AND THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

WELL THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY AND WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA AFTER 9PM TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. AS THE SYSTEM WORKS IN TO THE AREA IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE RAIN. SO WHILE THERE IS
DEFINITE POPS FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED WITH THAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. IF A STORM CAN STAY TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME HAIL...THUS A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING AT THIS POINT JUST A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO IN
REGARDS TO ANY WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LEAVE IT BEHIND. THIS IS
OF COURSE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...70S AND
80S.

THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT WILL WORK CLOSE TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOTHING STANDS OUT OF THE ORDINARY
WITH THIS FRONT EITHER...BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET THE
AREA MAYBE A DAY OR TWO OF CLEARING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  69  41  71  51 /  90  60  10  40  30
ANNISTON    50  69  44  74  54 /  70  60  10  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  54  70  48  74  56 /  90  60  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  57  73  52  75  57 /  70  50  10  40  30
CALERA      52  71  50  74  58 /  50  60  10  40  30
AUBURN      48  72  49  74  56 /  10  60  20  40  30
MONTGOMERY  53  76  55  78  59 /  10  50  20  40  30
TROY        50  76  54  79  59 /  10  50  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 300233
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
933 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE HELP OF SHORT-RANGE MODELS...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POPS FOR TONIGHT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT NEAR I-20. EXPECTING
GOOD ENOUGH COVERAGE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT TO
RAISE POPS TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND DEWPOINTS AREA-WIDE WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN THEME OF TAFS CONTINUE WITH APPROACHING FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO TAFS
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TIMING OF A RELATIVELY NARROW SYSTEM...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z EVEN AT NORTHERN SITES.
SIMILARLY DELAYED ONSET OF -RA/TSTMS BY A FEW HOURS...AND TRIED TO
COMPRESS THE TIME BELOW VFR DUE TO NARROWNESS OF FEATURE. ALTHOUGH
TAF LENGTH PRECLUDES IT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO WORK IN FROM N
TO S AFTER 18Z TOMORROW. MAINTAINED CONCEPT OF LIMITED PRECIP AT
MGM AND TOI AS WEAKENED FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT WITH THAT ASPECT OF THE TAFS THERE AND MAY NEED TO ADD
MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LATER.

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AND THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

WELL THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY AND WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA AFTER 9PM TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. AS THE SYSTEM WORKS IN TO THE AREA IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE RAIN. SO WHILE THERE IS
DEFINITE POPS FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED WITH THAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. IF A STORM CAN STAY TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME HAIL...THUS A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING AT THIS POINT JUST A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO IN
REGARDS TO ANY WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LEAVE IT BEHIND. THIS IS
OF COURSE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...70S AND
80S.

THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT WILL WORK CLOSE TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOTHING STANDS OUT OF THE ORDINARY
WITH THIS FRONT EITHER...BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET THE
AREA MAYBE A DAY OR TWO OF CLEARING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  69  41  71  51 /  90  60  10  40  30
ANNISTON    50  69  44  74  54 /  70  60  10  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  54  70  48  74  56 /  90  60  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  57  73  52  75  57 /  70  50  10  40  30
CALERA      52  71  50  74  58 /  50  60  10  40  30
AUBURN      48  72  49  74  56 /  10  60  20  40  30
MONTGOMERY  53  76  55  78  59 /  10  50  20  40  30
TROY        50  76  54  79  59 /  10  50  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300233
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
933 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE HELP OF SHORT-RANGE MODELS...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POPS FOR TONIGHT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT NEAR I-20. EXPECTING
GOOD ENOUGH COVERAGE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT TO
RAISE POPS TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND DEWPOINTS AREA-WIDE WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN THEME OF TAFS CONTINUE WITH APPROACHING FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO TAFS
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TIMING OF A RELATIVELY NARROW SYSTEM...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z EVEN AT NORTHERN SITES.
SIMILARLY DELAYED ONSET OF -RA/TSTMS BY A FEW HOURS...AND TRIED TO
COMPRESS THE TIME BELOW VFR DUE TO NARROWNESS OF FEATURE. ALTHOUGH
TAF LENGTH PRECLUDES IT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO WORK IN FROM N
TO S AFTER 18Z TOMORROW. MAINTAINED CONCEPT OF LIMITED PRECIP AT
MGM AND TOI AS WEAKENED FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT WITH THAT ASPECT OF THE TAFS THERE AND MAY NEED TO ADD
MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LATER.

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AND THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

WELL THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY AND WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA AFTER 9PM TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. AS THE SYSTEM WORKS IN TO THE AREA IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE RAIN. SO WHILE THERE IS
DEFINITE POPS FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED WITH THAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. IF A STORM CAN STAY TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME HAIL...THUS A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING AT THIS POINT JUST A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO IN
REGARDS TO ANY WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LEAVE IT BEHIND. THIS IS
OF COURSE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...70S AND
80S.

THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT WILL WORK CLOSE TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOTHING STANDS OUT OF THE ORDINARY
WITH THIS FRONT EITHER...BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET THE
AREA MAYBE A DAY OR TWO OF CLEARING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  69  41  71  51 /  90  60  10  40  30
ANNISTON    50  69  44  74  54 /  70  60  10  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  54  70  48  74  56 /  90  60  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  57  73  52  75  57 /  70  50  10  40  30
CALERA      52  71  50  74  58 /  50  60  10  40  30
AUBURN      48  72  49  74  56 /  10  60  20  40  30
MONTGOMERY  53  76  55  78  59 /  10  50  20  40  30
TROY        50  76  54  79  59 /  10  50  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 300233
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
933 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE HELP OF SHORT-RANGE MODELS...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POPS FOR TONIGHT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT NEAR I-20. EXPECTING
GOOD ENOUGH COVERAGE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT TO
RAISE POPS TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND DEWPOINTS AREA-WIDE WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN THEME OF TAFS CONTINUE WITH APPROACHING FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO TAFS
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TIMING OF A RELATIVELY NARROW SYSTEM...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z EVEN AT NORTHERN SITES.
SIMILARLY DELAYED ONSET OF -RA/TSTMS BY A FEW HOURS...AND TRIED TO
COMPRESS THE TIME BELOW VFR DUE TO NARROWNESS OF FEATURE. ALTHOUGH
TAF LENGTH PRECLUDES IT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO WORK IN FROM N
TO S AFTER 18Z TOMORROW. MAINTAINED CONCEPT OF LIMITED PRECIP AT
MGM AND TOI AS WEAKENED FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT WITH THAT ASPECT OF THE TAFS THERE AND MAY NEED TO ADD
MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LATER.

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AND THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

WELL THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY AND WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA AFTER 9PM TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. AS THE SYSTEM WORKS IN TO THE AREA IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE RAIN. SO WHILE THERE IS
DEFINITE POPS FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED WITH THAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. IF A STORM CAN STAY TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME HAIL...THUS A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING AT THIS POINT JUST A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO IN
REGARDS TO ANY WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LEAVE IT BEHIND. THIS IS
OF COURSE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...70S AND
80S.

THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT WILL WORK CLOSE TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOTHING STANDS OUT OF THE ORDINARY
WITH THIS FRONT EITHER...BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET THE
AREA MAYBE A DAY OR TWO OF CLEARING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  69  41  71  51 /  90  60  10  40  30
ANNISTON    50  69  44  74  54 /  70  60  10  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  54  70  48  74  56 /  90  60  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  57  73  52  75  57 /  70  50  10  40  30
CALERA      52  71  50  74  58 /  50  60  10  40  30
AUBURN      48  72  49  74  56 /  10  60  20  40  30
MONTGOMERY  53  76  55  78  59 /  10  50  20  40  30
TROY        50  76  54  79  59 /  10  50  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300012
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
712 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN THEME OF TAFS CONTINUE WITH APPROACHING FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO TAFS
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TIMING OF A RELATIVELY NARROW SYSTEM...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z EVEN AT NORTHERN SITES.
SIMILARLY DELAYED ONSET OF -RA/TSTMS BY A FEW HOURS...AND TRIED TO
COMPRESS THE TIME BELOW VFR DUE TO NARROWNESS OF FEATURE. ALTHOUGH
TAF LENGTH PRECLUDES IT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO WORK IN FROM N
TO S AFTER 18Z TOMORROW. MAINTAINED CONCEPT OF LIMITED PRECIP AT
MGM AND TOI AS WEAKENED FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT
WITH THAT ASPECT OF THE TAFS THERE AND MAY NEED TO ADD MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LATER.

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AND THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

WELL THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY AND WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA AFTER 9PM TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. AS THE SYSTEM WORKS IN TO THE AREA IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE RAIN. SO WHILE THERE IS
DEFINITE POPS FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED WITH THAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. IF A STORM CAN STAY TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME HAIL...THUS A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING AT THIS POINT JUST A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO IN
REGARDS TO ANY WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LEAVE IT BEHIND. THIS IS
OF COURSE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...70S AND
80S.

THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT WILL WORK CLOSE TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOTHING STANDS OUT OF THE ORDINARY
WITH THIS FRONT EITHER...BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET THE
AREA MAYBE A DAY OR TWO OF CLEARING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 300012
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
712 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN THEME OF TAFS CONTINUE WITH APPROACHING FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO TAFS
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TIMING OF A RELATIVELY NARROW SYSTEM...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z EVEN AT NORTHERN SITES.
SIMILARLY DELAYED ONSET OF -RA/TSTMS BY A FEW HOURS...AND TRIED TO
COMPRESS THE TIME BELOW VFR DUE TO NARROWNESS OF FEATURE. ALTHOUGH
TAF LENGTH PRECLUDES IT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO WORK IN FROM N
TO S AFTER 18Z TOMORROW. MAINTAINED CONCEPT OF LIMITED PRECIP AT
MGM AND TOI AS WEAKENED FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT
WITH THAT ASPECT OF THE TAFS THERE AND MAY NEED TO ADD MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LATER.

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AND THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

WELL THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY AND WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA AFTER 9PM TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. AS THE SYSTEM WORKS IN TO THE AREA IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE RAIN. SO WHILE THERE IS
DEFINITE POPS FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED WITH THAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. IF A STORM CAN STAY TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME HAIL...THUS A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING AT THIS POINT JUST A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO IN
REGARDS TO ANY WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LEAVE IT BEHIND. THIS IS
OF COURSE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...70S AND
80S.

THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT WILL WORK CLOSE TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOTHING STANDS OUT OF THE ORDINARY
WITH THIS FRONT EITHER...BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET THE
AREA MAYBE A DAY OR TWO OF CLEARING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 300012
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
712 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN THEME OF TAFS CONTINUE WITH APPROACHING FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO TAFS
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TIMING OF A RELATIVELY NARROW SYSTEM...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z EVEN AT NORTHERN SITES.
SIMILARLY DELAYED ONSET OF -RA/TSTMS BY A FEW HOURS...AND TRIED TO
COMPRESS THE TIME BELOW VFR DUE TO NARROWNESS OF FEATURE. ALTHOUGH
TAF LENGTH PRECLUDES IT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO WORK IN FROM N
TO S AFTER 18Z TOMORROW. MAINTAINED CONCEPT OF LIMITED PRECIP AT
MGM AND TOI AS WEAKENED FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT
WITH THAT ASPECT OF THE TAFS THERE AND MAY NEED TO ADD MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LATER.

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AND THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

WELL THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY AND WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA AFTER 9PM TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. AS THE SYSTEM WORKS IN TO THE AREA IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE RAIN. SO WHILE THERE IS
DEFINITE POPS FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED WITH THAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. IF A STORM CAN STAY TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME HAIL...THUS A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING AT THIS POINT JUST A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO IN
REGARDS TO ANY WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LEAVE IT BEHIND. THIS IS
OF COURSE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...70S AND
80S.

THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT WILL WORK CLOSE TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOTHING STANDS OUT OF THE ORDINARY
WITH THIS FRONT EITHER...BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET THE
AREA MAYBE A DAY OR TWO OF CLEARING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 300012
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
712 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAIN THEME OF TAFS CONTINUE WITH APPROACHING FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO TAFS
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TIMING OF A RELATIVELY NARROW SYSTEM...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z EVEN AT NORTHERN SITES.
SIMILARLY DELAYED ONSET OF -RA/TSTMS BY A FEW HOURS...AND TRIED TO
COMPRESS THE TIME BELOW VFR DUE TO NARROWNESS OF FEATURE. ALTHOUGH
TAF LENGTH PRECLUDES IT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO WORK IN FROM N
TO S AFTER 18Z TOMORROW. MAINTAINED CONCEPT OF LIMITED PRECIP AT
MGM AND TOI AS WEAKENED FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT
WITH THAT ASPECT OF THE TAFS THERE AND MAY NEED TO ADD MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LATER.

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER AND THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PASSES.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

WELL THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY AND WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA AFTER 9PM TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. AS THE SYSTEM WORKS IN TO THE AREA IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE RAIN. SO WHILE THERE IS
DEFINITE POPS FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED WITH THAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. IF A STORM CAN STAY TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME HAIL...THUS A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING AT THIS POINT JUST A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO IN
REGARDS TO ANY WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LEAVE IT BEHIND. THIS IS
OF COURSE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...70S AND
80S.

THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT WILL WORK CLOSE TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOTHING STANDS OUT OF THE ORDINARY
WITH THIS FRONT EITHER...BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET THE
AREA MAYBE A DAY OR TWO OF CLEARING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291959
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
259 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WELL THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY AND WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA AFTER 9PM TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. AS THE SYSTEM WORKS IN TO THE AREA IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE RAIN. SO WHILE THERE IS
DEFINITE POPS FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED WITH THAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. IF A STORM CAN STAY TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME HAIL...THUS A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING AT THIS POINT JUST A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO IN
REGARDS TO ANY WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LEAVE IT BEHIND. THIS IS
OF COURSE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...70S AND
80S.

THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT WILL WORK CLOSE TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOTHING STANDS OUT OF THE ORDINARY
WITH THIS FRONT EITHER...BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET THE
AREA MAYBE A DAY OR TWO OF CLEARING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...HOWEVER...LOWER CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AT THE
NORTHERN SITES AFTER SUNSET...WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO AFTER MIDNIGHT.  EXPECT VIS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS.  MGM AND
TOI LOOK TO BE A LATER ONSET WITH JUST SOME DRIZZLE CONDITIONS WITH
RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AS THE FRONT
WORKS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...IT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN
MOISTURE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD LESSEN SIGNIFICANTLY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  69  41  71  51 /  70  60  10  40  30
ANNISTON    50  69  44  74  54 /  60  60  10  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  51  70  48  74  56 /  70  60  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  54  73  52  75  57 /  60  50  10  40  30
CALERA      52  71  50  74  58 /  50  60  10  40  30
AUBURN      47  72  49  74  56 /  20  60  20  40  30
MONTGOMERY  51  76  55  78  59 /  20  50  20  40  30
TROY        48  76  54  79  59 /  10  40  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291959
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
259 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WELL THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY AND WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA AFTER 9PM TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. AS THE SYSTEM WORKS IN TO THE AREA IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE RAIN. SO WHILE THERE IS
DEFINITE POPS FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED WITH THAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. IF A STORM CAN STAY TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM TO
PRODUCE SOME HAIL...THUS A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING AT THIS POINT JUST A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO IN
REGARDS TO ANY WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS LEAVE IT BEHIND. THIS IS
OF COURSE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WENT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL POPS FOR THE WEEK ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...70S AND
80S.

THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT WILL WORK CLOSE TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOTHING STANDS OUT OF THE ORDINARY
WITH THIS FRONT EITHER...BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET THE
AREA MAYBE A DAY OR TWO OF CLEARING BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...HOWEVER...LOWER CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AT THE
NORTHERN SITES AFTER SUNSET...WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO AFTER MIDNIGHT.  EXPECT VIS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS.  MGM AND
TOI LOOK TO BE A LATER ONSET WITH JUST SOME DRIZZLE CONDITIONS WITH
RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AS THE FRONT
WORKS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...IT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN
MOISTURE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD LESSEN SIGNIFICANTLY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  69  41  71  51 /  70  60  10  40  30
ANNISTON    50  69  44  74  54 /  60  60  10  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  51  70  48  74  56 /  70  60  10  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  54  73  52  75  57 /  60  50  10  40  30
CALERA      52  71  50  74  58 /  50  60  10  40  30
AUBURN      47  72  49  74  56 /  20  60  20  40  30
MONTGOMERY  51  76  55  78  59 /  20  50  20  40  30
TROY        48  76  54  79  59 /  10  40  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 291657
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING WEATHER AND 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY POOLING BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CRANKS UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
LOOKING LIKE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR
THEREAFTER.  A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER MAY MIX IN BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT
IT DOESN`T LOOK TOO EXCITING AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS YOU MAY EXPECT FOR LATE MARCH.  MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL DRY UP AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF MGM AND TOI FAIL TO MEASURE BY TOMORROW LUNCH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...HOWEVER...LOWER CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AT THE
NORTHERN SITES AFTER SUNSET...WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO AFTER MIDNIGHT.  EXPECT VIS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS.  MGM AND
TOI LOOK TO BE A LATER ONSET WITH JUST SOME DRIZZLE CONDITIONS WITH
RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AS THE FRONT
WORKS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...IT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN
MOISTURE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD LESSEN SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291657
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING WEATHER AND 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY POOLING BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CRANKS UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
LOOKING LIKE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR
THEREAFTER.  A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER MAY MIX IN BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT
IT DOESN`T LOOK TOO EXCITING AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS YOU MAY EXPECT FOR LATE MARCH.  MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL DRY UP AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF MGM AND TOI FAIL TO MEASURE BY TOMORROW LUNCH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...HOWEVER...LOWER CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AT THE
NORTHERN SITES AFTER SUNSET...WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO AFTER MIDNIGHT.  EXPECT VIS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS.  MGM AND
TOI LOOK TO BE A LATER ONSET WITH JUST SOME DRIZZLE CONDITIONS WITH
RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AS THE FRONT
WORKS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...IT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN
MOISTURE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD LESSEN SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 291657
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING WEATHER AND 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY POOLING BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CRANKS UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
LOOKING LIKE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR
THEREAFTER.  A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER MAY MIX IN BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT
IT DOESN`T LOOK TOO EXCITING AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS YOU MAY EXPECT FOR LATE MARCH.  MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL DRY UP AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF MGM AND TOI FAIL TO MEASURE BY TOMORROW LUNCH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...HOWEVER...LOWER CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AT THE
NORTHERN SITES AFTER SUNSET...WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO AFTER MIDNIGHT.  EXPECT VIS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS.  MGM AND
TOI LOOK TO BE A LATER ONSET WITH JUST SOME DRIZZLE CONDITIONS WITH
RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AS THE FRONT
WORKS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...IT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN
MOISTURE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD LESSEN SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 291147
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
647 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS A LARGE BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THIS IS THE RIGHT AREA BUT A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER THAN ANTICIPATED. THESE CLOUDS ARE ALSO BEGINNING
TO MOVE AND EXPAND SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...THE CONFIDENCE
IN A WIDESPREAD FROST SOUTHWEST HAS DECREASED AND TRIMMED A ROW OF
COUNTIES OFF THAT ADVISORY. AREAS NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE
CLOUDS HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. KEPT THE FREEZE
WARNING AS IT WAS ALTHOUGH ALL LOCATIONS MAY NOT FREEZE. BELIEVETHERE
WAS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE SOMEWHERE IN THESE COUNTIES TO HIT FREEZING
THAT WILL LEAVE IT GOING FOR NOW. ONCE AGAIN...MOST PLACES ONLY A
BRIEF DURATION FREEZE.

OVERALL FORECAST CHANGES WERE HELD AT A MINIMUM THIS PACKAGE AS
THE MODELS RETAINED SOME CONSISTENCY AND REMAINED CLOSE TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
OVERHEAD TODAY. BUT ANOTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING US GOOD RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY. ALL
MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/WRF BEING SLOW AGAIN.
WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...KEPT THE MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER POSSIBLE. LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT AND THIS IS ACCOMPANIED
BY AN UPPER JET AND BULK SHEAR VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
ELEVATED STRONG STORMS.

THIS FIRST FRONT STALLS SOUTH AND MEANDERS NEAR CENTRAL ALABAMA A
FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVELS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AND THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT HEATS UP AND STAYS MOIST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE FRIDAY BRINGING ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES. THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES DIFFER WITH THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE
AND STRENGTH OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES. SO SOME OF THE PARTICULARS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT
LATER.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PERSISTENT BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ACROSS MANY CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AROUND THE 6000-8000 FT RANGE DURING THIS
TIME. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT...HELPING TO DRAW SOME GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HELP SET OFF
SOME SHOWERS BEFORE THIS TIME TOMORROW.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-MARION-RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 291147
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
647 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS A LARGE BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THIS IS THE RIGHT AREA BUT A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER THAN ANTICIPATED. THESE CLOUDS ARE ALSO BEGINNING
TO MOVE AND EXPAND SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...THE CONFIDENCE
IN A WIDESPREAD FROST SOUTHWEST HAS DECREASED AND TRIMMED A ROW OF
COUNTIES OFF THAT ADVISORY. AREAS NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE
CLOUDS HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. KEPT THE FREEZE
WARNING AS IT WAS ALTHOUGH ALL LOCATIONS MAY NOT FREEZE. BELIEVETHERE
WAS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE SOMEWHERE IN THESE COUNTIES TO HIT FREEZING
THAT WILL LEAVE IT GOING FOR NOW. ONCE AGAIN...MOST PLACES ONLY A
BRIEF DURATION FREEZE.

OVERALL FORECAST CHANGES WERE HELD AT A MINIMUM THIS PACKAGE AS
THE MODELS RETAINED SOME CONSISTENCY AND REMAINED CLOSE TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
OVERHEAD TODAY. BUT ANOTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING US GOOD RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY. ALL
MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/WRF BEING SLOW AGAIN.
WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...KEPT THE MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER POSSIBLE. LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT AND THIS IS ACCOMPANIED
BY AN UPPER JET AND BULK SHEAR VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
ELEVATED STRONG STORMS.

THIS FIRST FRONT STALLS SOUTH AND MEANDERS NEAR CENTRAL ALABAMA A
FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVELS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AND THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT HEATS UP AND STAYS MOIST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE FRIDAY BRINGING ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES. THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES DIFFER WITH THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE
AND STRENGTH OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES. SO SOME OF THE PARTICULARS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT
LATER.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PERSISTENT BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ACROSS MANY CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AROUND THE 6000-8000 FT RANGE DURING THIS
TIME. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT...HELPING TO DRAW SOME GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HELP SET OFF
SOME SHOWERS BEFORE THIS TIME TOMORROW.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-MARION-RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 291147
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
647 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS A LARGE BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THIS IS THE RIGHT AREA BUT A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER THAN ANTICIPATED. THESE CLOUDS ARE ALSO BEGINNING
TO MOVE AND EXPAND SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...THE CONFIDENCE
IN A WIDESPREAD FROST SOUTHWEST HAS DECREASED AND TRIMMED A ROW OF
COUNTIES OFF THAT ADVISORY. AREAS NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE
CLOUDS HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. KEPT THE FREEZE
WARNING AS IT WAS ALTHOUGH ALL LOCATIONS MAY NOT FREEZE. BELIEVETHERE
WAS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE SOMEWHERE IN THESE COUNTIES TO HIT FREEZING
THAT WILL LEAVE IT GOING FOR NOW. ONCE AGAIN...MOST PLACES ONLY A
BRIEF DURATION FREEZE.

OVERALL FORECAST CHANGES WERE HELD AT A MINIMUM THIS PACKAGE AS
THE MODELS RETAINED SOME CONSISTENCY AND REMAINED CLOSE TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
OVERHEAD TODAY. BUT ANOTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING US GOOD RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY. ALL
MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/WRF BEING SLOW AGAIN.
WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...KEPT THE MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER POSSIBLE. LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT AND THIS IS ACCOMPANIED
BY AN UPPER JET AND BULK SHEAR VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
ELEVATED STRONG STORMS.

THIS FIRST FRONT STALLS SOUTH AND MEANDERS NEAR CENTRAL ALABAMA A
FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVELS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AND THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT HEATS UP AND STAYS MOIST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE FRIDAY BRINGING ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES. THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES DIFFER WITH THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE
AND STRENGTH OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES. SO SOME OF THE PARTICULARS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT
LATER.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PERSISTENT BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ACROSS MANY CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AROUND THE 6000-8000 FT RANGE DURING THIS
TIME. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT...HELPING TO DRAW SOME GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HELP SET OFF
SOME SHOWERS BEFORE THIS TIME TOMORROW.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-MARION-RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290940
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
440 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS A LARGE BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THIS IS THE RIGHT AREA BUT A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER THAN ANTICIPATED. THESE CLOUDS ARE ALSO BEGINNING
TO MOVE AND EXPAND SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...THE CONFIDENCE
IN A WIDESPREAD FROST SOUTHWEST HAS DECREASED AND TRIMMED A ROW OF
COUNTIES OFF THAT ADVISORY. AREAS NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE
CLOUDS HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. KEPT THE FREEZE
WARNING AS IT WAS ALTHOUGH ALL LOCATIONS MAY NOT FREEZE. BELIEVETHERE
WAS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE SOMEWHERE IN THESE COUNTIES TO HIT FREEZING
THAT WILL LEAVE IT GOING FOR NOW. ONCE AGAIN...MOST PLACES ONLY A
BRIEF DURATION FREEZE.

OVERALL FORECAST CHANGES WERE HELD AT A MINIMUM THIS PACKAGE AS
THE MODELS RETAINED SOME CONSISTENCY AND REMAINED CLOSE TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
OVERHEAD TODAY. BUT ANOTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING US GOOD RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY. ALL
MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/WRF BEING SLOW AGAIN.
WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...KEPT THE MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER POSSIBLE. LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT AND THIS IS ACCOMPANIED
BY AN UPPER JET AND BULK SHEAR VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
ELEVATED STRONG STORMS.

THIS FIRST FRONT STALLS SOUTH AND MEANDERS NEAR CENTRAL ALABAMA A
FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVELS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AND THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT HEATS UP AND STAYS MOIST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE FRIDAY BRINGING ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES. THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES DIFFER WITH THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE
AND STRENGTH OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES. SO SOME OF THE PARTICULARS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT
LATER.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BANDS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY OCCASIONALLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SITES...BUT CEILINGS WILL STAY
WELL ABOVE THE 3000 FT THRESHOLD. NO ADDITIONAL AVIATION CONCERNS.

/61/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     58  48  69  41  69 /   0  70  50  10  40
ANNISTON    59  49  69  44  72 /   0  60  60  10  40
BIRMINGHAM  60  50  70  48  72 /   0  70  60  10  40
TUSCALOOSA  66  53  73  52  73 /   0  60  60  20  40
CALERA      60  51  71  50  72 /   0  60  70  20  40
AUBURN      59  46  72  49  72 /   0  20  60  20  40
MONTGOMERY  64  50  75  55  76 /   0  20  60  20  40
TROY        66  47  75  54  77 /   0  20  60  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR AUTAUGA-BIBB-
CHILTON-ELMORE-LEE-MACON-PICKENS-RUSSELL-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290940
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
440 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS A LARGE BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THIS IS THE RIGHT AREA BUT A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER THAN ANTICIPATED. THESE CLOUDS ARE ALSO BEGINNING
TO MOVE AND EXPAND SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...THE CONFIDENCE
IN A WIDESPREAD FROST SOUTHWEST HAS DECREASED AND TRIMMED A ROW OF
COUNTIES OFF THAT ADVISORY. AREAS NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE
CLOUDS HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. KEPT THE FREEZE
WARNING AS IT WAS ALTHOUGH ALL LOCATIONS MAY NOT FREEZE. BELIEVETHERE
WAS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE SOMEWHERE IN THESE COUNTIES TO HIT FREEZING
THAT WILL LEAVE IT GOING FOR NOW. ONCE AGAIN...MOST PLACES ONLY A
BRIEF DURATION FREEZE.

OVERALL FORECAST CHANGES WERE HELD AT A MINIMUM THIS PACKAGE AS
THE MODELS RETAINED SOME CONSISTENCY AND REMAINED CLOSE TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
OVERHEAD TODAY. BUT ANOTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING US GOOD RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY. ALL
MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/WRF BEING SLOW AGAIN.
WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...KEPT THE MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER POSSIBLE. LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT AND THIS IS ACCOMPANIED
BY AN UPPER JET AND BULK SHEAR VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
ELEVATED STRONG STORMS.

THIS FIRST FRONT STALLS SOUTH AND MEANDERS NEAR CENTRAL ALABAMA A
FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVELS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AND THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT HEATS UP AND STAYS MOIST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE FRIDAY BRINGING ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES. THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES DIFFER WITH THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE
AND STRENGTH OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES. SO SOME OF THE PARTICULARS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT
LATER.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BANDS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY OCCASIONALLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SITES...BUT CEILINGS WILL STAY
WELL ABOVE THE 3000 FT THRESHOLD. NO ADDITIONAL AVIATION CONCERNS.

/61/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     58  48  69  41  69 /   0  70  50  10  40
ANNISTON    59  49  69  44  72 /   0  60  60  10  40
BIRMINGHAM  60  50  70  48  72 /   0  70  60  10  40
TUSCALOOSA  66  53  73  52  73 /   0  60  60  20  40
CALERA      60  51  71  50  72 /   0  60  70  20  40
AUBURN      59  46  72  49  72 /   0  20  60  20  40
MONTGOMERY  64  50  75  55  76 /   0  20  60  20  40
TROY        66  47  75  54  77 /   0  20  60  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR AUTAUGA-BIBB-
CHILTON-ELMORE-LEE-MACON-PICKENS-RUSSELL-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290940
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
440 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS A LARGE BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THIS IS THE RIGHT AREA BUT A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER THAN ANTICIPATED. THESE CLOUDS ARE ALSO BEGINNING
TO MOVE AND EXPAND SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...THE CONFIDENCE
IN A WIDESPREAD FROST SOUTHWEST HAS DECREASED AND TRIMMED A ROW OF
COUNTIES OFF THAT ADVISORY. AREAS NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE
CLOUDS HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. KEPT THE FREEZE
WARNING AS IT WAS ALTHOUGH ALL LOCATIONS MAY NOT FREEZE. BELIEVETHERE
WAS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE SOMEWHERE IN THESE COUNTIES TO HIT FREEZING
THAT WILL LEAVE IT GOING FOR NOW. ONCE AGAIN...MOST PLACES ONLY A
BRIEF DURATION FREEZE.

OVERALL FORECAST CHANGES WERE HELD AT A MINIMUM THIS PACKAGE AS
THE MODELS RETAINED SOME CONSISTENCY AND REMAINED CLOSE TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
OVERHEAD TODAY. BUT ANOTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING US GOOD RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY. ALL
MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/WRF BEING SLOW AGAIN.
WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...KEPT THE MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER POSSIBLE. LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT AND THIS IS ACCOMPANIED
BY AN UPPER JET AND BULK SHEAR VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
ELEVATED STRONG STORMS.

THIS FIRST FRONT STALLS SOUTH AND MEANDERS NEAR CENTRAL ALABAMA A
FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVELS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AND THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT HEATS UP AND STAYS MOIST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE FRIDAY BRINGING ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES. THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES DIFFER WITH THE OVERALL AMPLITUDE
AND STRENGTH OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES. SO SOME OF THE PARTICULARS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT
LATER.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BANDS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY OCCASIONALLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SITES...BUT CEILINGS WILL STAY
WELL ABOVE THE 3000 FT THRESHOLD. NO ADDITIONAL AVIATION CONCERNS.

/61/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     58  48  69  41  69 /   0  70  50  10  40
ANNISTON    59  49  69  44  72 /   0  60  60  10  40
BIRMINGHAM  60  50  70  48  72 /   0  70  60  10  40
TUSCALOOSA  66  53  73  52  73 /   0  60  60  20  40
CALERA      60  51  71  50  72 /   0  60  70  20  40
AUBURN      59  46  72  49  72 /   0  20  60  20  40
MONTGOMERY  64  50  75  55  76 /   0  20  60  20  40
TROY        66  47  75  54  77 /   0  20  60  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR AUTAUGA-BIBB-
CHILTON-ELMORE-LEE-MACON-PICKENS-RUSSELL-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 290556
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS CUTTING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING IN MANY AREAS.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNS OF EROSION ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. ROLLING THE DICE A BIT...HAVE NUDGED DOWN
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER THE
CLOUD COVER...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED DISSIPATION.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BANDS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY OCCASIONALLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SITES...BUT CEILINGS WILL STAY
WELL ABOVE THE 3000 FT THRESHOLD. NO ADDITIONAL AVIATION CONCERNS.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 290556
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS CUTTING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING IN MANY AREAS.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNS OF EROSION ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. ROLLING THE DICE A BIT...HAVE NUDGED DOWN
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER THE
CLOUD COVER...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED DISSIPATION.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BANDS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY OCCASIONALLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SITES...BUT CEILINGS WILL STAY
WELL ABOVE THE 3000 FT THRESHOLD. NO ADDITIONAL AVIATION CONCERNS.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290556
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS CUTTING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING IN MANY AREAS.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNS OF EROSION ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. ROLLING THE DICE A BIT...HAVE NUDGED DOWN
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER THE
CLOUD COVER...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED DISSIPATION.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BANDS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY OCCASIONALLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SITES...BUT CEILINGS WILL STAY
WELL ABOVE THE 3000 FT THRESHOLD. NO ADDITIONAL AVIATION CONCERNS.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290556
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS CUTTING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING IN MANY AREAS.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNS OF EROSION ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. ROLLING THE DICE A BIT...HAVE NUDGED DOWN
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER THE
CLOUD COVER...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED DISSIPATION.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BANDS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY OCCASIONALLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SITES...BUT CEILINGS WILL STAY
WELL ABOVE THE 3000 FT THRESHOLD. NO ADDITIONAL AVIATION CONCERNS.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 290303
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1003 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS CUTTING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING IN MANY AREAS.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNS OF EROSION ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. ROLLING THE DICE A BIT...HAVE NUDGED DOWN
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER THE
CLOUD COVER...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED DISSIPATION.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDS EXPECTED BY 03Z. LGT NW WINDS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHEAST 5-7 KTS BY
15Z AS A SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

58/ROSE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 320 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

OVERALL NOT MUCH OF CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS WILL DO IS
CREATE A NICE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE THIS MAY BE THE I-22/US 280 STRETCH. AREAS NORTHEAST
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MOST LIKELY DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING...THUS
A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. NOT AS CONFIDENT
HERE AS CLOUD COVER COULD PLAY A ROLL IN DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF
THE FROST.

A DRY DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TO
WEST. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
FRONT BEGINS TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONCE IT STARTS...LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS...SO WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THEN CENTRAL AND SOUTH ON MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WE WILL SEE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FOR
THE WEEK. FINALLY ON SATURDAY A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS FRONT SHOULD ACTUALLY CLEAR OUT THE AREA FOR AT
LEAST THE REST OF NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     27  58  48  68  43 /   0  10  70  50  10
ANNISTON    29  59  48  68  43 /   0   0  50  60  10
BIRMINGHAM  31  60  52  70  47 /   0   0  60  60  10
TUSCALOOSA  35  66  54  73  51 /   0   0  50  60  20
CALERA      34  60  52  71  50 /   0   0  40  70  20
AUBURN      33  59  48  72  49 /   0   0  20  60  20
MONTGOMERY  36  64  52  74  54 /  10   0  10  60  20
TROY        34  66  50  74  53 /   0   0  10  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 290303
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1003 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS CUTTING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING IN MANY AREAS.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNS OF EROSION ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. ROLLING THE DICE A BIT...HAVE NUDGED DOWN
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER THE
CLOUD COVER...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED DISSIPATION.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDS EXPECTED BY 03Z. LGT NW WINDS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHEAST 5-7 KTS BY
15Z AS A SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

58/ROSE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 320 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

OVERALL NOT MUCH OF CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS WILL DO IS
CREATE A NICE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE THIS MAY BE THE I-22/US 280 STRETCH. AREAS NORTHEAST
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MOST LIKELY DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING...THUS
A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. NOT AS CONFIDENT
HERE AS CLOUD COVER COULD PLAY A ROLL IN DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF
THE FROST.

A DRY DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TO
WEST. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
FRONT BEGINS TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONCE IT STARTS...LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS...SO WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THEN CENTRAL AND SOUTH ON MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WE WILL SEE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FOR
THE WEEK. FINALLY ON SATURDAY A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS FRONT SHOULD ACTUALLY CLEAR OUT THE AREA FOR AT
LEAST THE REST OF NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     27  58  48  68  43 /   0  10  70  50  10
ANNISTON    29  59  48  68  43 /   0   0  50  60  10
BIRMINGHAM  31  60  52  70  47 /   0   0  60  60  10
TUSCALOOSA  35  66  54  73  51 /   0   0  50  60  20
CALERA      34  60  52  71  50 /   0   0  40  70  20
AUBURN      33  59  48  72  49 /   0   0  20  60  20
MONTGOMERY  36  64  52  74  54 /  10   0  10  60  20
TROY        34  66  50  74  53 /   0   0  10  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 290303
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1003 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS CUTTING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING IN MANY AREAS.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNS OF EROSION ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND UPSTREAM
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. ROLLING THE DICE A BIT...HAVE NUDGED DOWN
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER THE
CLOUD COVER...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED DISSIPATION.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDS EXPECTED BY 03Z. LGT NW WINDS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHEAST 5-7 KTS BY
15Z AS A SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

58/ROSE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 320 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

OVERALL NOT MUCH OF CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS WILL DO IS
CREATE A NICE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE THIS MAY BE THE I-22/US 280 STRETCH. AREAS NORTHEAST
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MOST LIKELY DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING...THUS
A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. NOT AS CONFIDENT
HERE AS CLOUD COVER COULD PLAY A ROLL IN DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF
THE FROST.

A DRY DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TO
WEST. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
FRONT BEGINS TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONCE IT STARTS...LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS...SO WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THEN CENTRAL AND SOUTH ON MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WE WILL SEE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FOR
THE WEEK. FINALLY ON SATURDAY A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS FRONT SHOULD ACTUALLY CLEAR OUT THE AREA FOR AT
LEAST THE REST OF NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     27  58  48  68  43 /   0  10  70  50  10
ANNISTON    29  59  48  68  43 /   0   0  50  60  10
BIRMINGHAM  31  60  52  70  47 /   0   0  60  60  10
TUSCALOOSA  35  66  54  73  51 /   0   0  50  60  20
CALERA      34  60  52  71  50 /   0   0  40  70  20
AUBURN      33  59  48  72  49 /   0   0  20  60  20
MONTGOMERY  36  64  52  74  54 /  10   0  10  60  20
TROY        34  66  50  74  53 /   0   0  10  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 282335
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
635 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL NOT MUCH OF CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS WILL DO IS
CREATE A NICE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE THIS MAY BE THE I-22/US 280 STRETCH. AREAS NORTHEAST
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MOST LIKELY DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING...THUS
A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. NOT AS CONFIDENT
HERE AS CLOUD COVER COULD PLAY A ROLL IN DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF
THE FROST.

A DRY DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TO
WEST. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
FRONT BEGINS TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONCE IT STARTS...LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS...SO WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THEN CENTRAL AND SOUTH ON MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WE WILL SEE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FOR
THE WEEK. FINALLY ON SATURDAY A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS FRONT SHOULD ACTUALLY CLEAR OUT THE AREA FOR AT
LEAST THE REST OF NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDS EXPECTED BY 03Z. LGT NW WINDS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHEAST 5-7 KTS BY
15Z AS A SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  58  48  68  43 /   0  10  70  50  10
ANNISTON    27  59  48  68  43 /   0   0  50  60  10
BIRMINGHAM  30  60  52  70  47 /   0   0  60  60  10
TUSCALOOSA  36  66  54  73  51 /   0   0  50  60  20
CALERA      32  60  52  71  50 /   0   0  40  70  20
AUBURN      34  59  48  72  49 /   0   0  20  60  20
MONTGOMERY  39  64  52  74  54 /  10   0  10  60  20
TROY        38  66  50  74  53 /   0   0  10  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 282335
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
635 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL NOT MUCH OF CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS WILL DO IS
CREATE A NICE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE THIS MAY BE THE I-22/US 280 STRETCH. AREAS NORTHEAST
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MOST LIKELY DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING...THUS
A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. NOT AS CONFIDENT
HERE AS CLOUD COVER COULD PLAY A ROLL IN DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF
THE FROST.

A DRY DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TO
WEST. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
FRONT BEGINS TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONCE IT STARTS...LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS...SO WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THEN CENTRAL AND SOUTH ON MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WE WILL SEE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FOR
THE WEEK. FINALLY ON SATURDAY A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS FRONT SHOULD ACTUALLY CLEAR OUT THE AREA FOR AT
LEAST THE REST OF NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDS EXPECTED BY 03Z. LGT NW WINDS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHEAST 5-7 KTS BY
15Z AS A SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  58  48  68  43 /   0  10  70  50  10
ANNISTON    27  59  48  68  43 /   0   0  50  60  10
BIRMINGHAM  30  60  52  70  47 /   0   0  60  60  10
TUSCALOOSA  36  66  54  73  51 /   0   0  50  60  20
CALERA      32  60  52  71  50 /   0   0  40  70  20
AUBURN      34  59  48  72  49 /   0   0  20  60  20
MONTGOMERY  39  64  52  74  54 /  10   0  10  60  20
TROY        38  66  50  74  53 /   0   0  10  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 282335
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
635 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL NOT MUCH OF CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS WILL DO IS
CREATE A NICE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE THIS MAY BE THE I-22/US 280 STRETCH. AREAS NORTHEAST
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MOST LIKELY DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING...THUS
A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. NOT AS CONFIDENT
HERE AS CLOUD COVER COULD PLAY A ROLL IN DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF
THE FROST.

A DRY DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TO
WEST. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
FRONT BEGINS TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONCE IT STARTS...LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS...SO WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THEN CENTRAL AND SOUTH ON MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WE WILL SEE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FOR
THE WEEK. FINALLY ON SATURDAY A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS FRONT SHOULD ACTUALLY CLEAR OUT THE AREA FOR AT
LEAST THE REST OF NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDS EXPECTED BY 03Z. LGT NW WINDS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHEAST 5-7 KTS BY
15Z AS A SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  58  48  68  43 /   0  10  70  50  10
ANNISTON    27  59  48  68  43 /   0   0  50  60  10
BIRMINGHAM  30  60  52  70  47 /   0   0  60  60  10
TUSCALOOSA  36  66  54  73  51 /   0   0  50  60  20
CALERA      32  60  52  71  50 /   0   0  40  70  20
AUBURN      34  59  48  72  49 /   0   0  20  60  20
MONTGOMERY  39  64  52  74  54 /  10   0  10  60  20
TROY        38  66  50  74  53 /   0   0  10  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 282335
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
635 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL NOT MUCH OF CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS WILL DO IS
CREATE A NICE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE THIS MAY BE THE I-22/US 280 STRETCH. AREAS NORTHEAST
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MOST LIKELY DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING...THUS
A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. NOT AS CONFIDENT
HERE AS CLOUD COVER COULD PLAY A ROLL IN DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF
THE FROST.

A DRY DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TO
WEST. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
FRONT BEGINS TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONCE IT STARTS...LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS...SO WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THEN CENTRAL AND SOUTH ON MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WE WILL SEE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FOR
THE WEEK. FINALLY ON SATURDAY A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS FRONT SHOULD ACTUALLY CLEAR OUT THE AREA FOR AT
LEAST THE REST OF NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDS EXPECTED BY 03Z. LGT NW WINDS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHEAST 5-7 KTS BY
15Z AS A SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  58  48  68  43 /   0  10  70  50  10
ANNISTON    27  59  48  68  43 /   0   0  50  60  10
BIRMINGHAM  30  60  52  70  47 /   0   0  60  60  10
TUSCALOOSA  36  66  54  73  51 /   0   0  50  60  20
CALERA      32  60  52  71  50 /   0   0  40  70  20
AUBURN      34  59  48  72  49 /   0   0  20  60  20
MONTGOMERY  39  64  52  74  54 /  10   0  10  60  20
TROY        38  66  50  74  53 /   0   0  10  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 282020
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
320 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL NOT MUCH OF CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS WILL DO IS
CREATE A NICE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE THIS MAY BE THE I-22/US 280 STRETCH. AREAS NORTHEAST
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MOST LIKELY DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING...THUS
A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. NOT AS CONFIDENT
HERE AS CLOUD COVER COULD PLAY A ROLL IN DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF
THE FROST.

A DRY DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TO
WEST. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
FRONT BEGINS TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONCE IT STARTS...LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS...SO WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THEN CENTRAL AND SOUTH ON MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WE WILL SEE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FOR
THE WEEK. FINALLY ON SATURDAY A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS FRONT SHOULD ACTUALLY CLEAR OUT THE AREA FOR AT
LEAST THE REST OF NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AFTER A CLEAR START TO THE MORNING...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  58  48  68  43 /   0  10  70  50  10
ANNISTON    27  59  48  68  43 /   0   0  50  60  10
BIRMINGHAM  30  60  52  70  47 /   0   0  60  60  10
TUSCALOOSA  36  66  54  73  51 /   0   0  50  60  20
CALERA      32  60  52  71  50 /   0   0  40  70  20
AUBURN      34  59  48  72  49 /   0   0  20  60  20
MONTGOMERY  39  64  52  74  54 /  10   0  10  60  20
TROY        38  66  50  74  53 /   0   0  10  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 282020
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
320 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL NOT MUCH OF CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS WILL DO IS
CREATE A NICE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE THIS MAY BE THE I-22/US 280 STRETCH. AREAS NORTHEAST
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MOST LIKELY DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING...THUS
A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. NOT AS CONFIDENT
HERE AS CLOUD COVER COULD PLAY A ROLL IN DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF
THE FROST.

A DRY DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TO
WEST. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
FRONT BEGINS TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONCE IT STARTS...LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS...SO WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THEN CENTRAL AND SOUTH ON MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WE WILL SEE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FOR
THE WEEK. FINALLY ON SATURDAY A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS FRONT SHOULD ACTUALLY CLEAR OUT THE AREA FOR AT
LEAST THE REST OF NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AFTER A CLEAR START TO THE MORNING...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  58  48  68  43 /   0  10  70  50  10
ANNISTON    27  59  48  68  43 /   0   0  50  60  10
BIRMINGHAM  30  60  52  70  47 /   0   0  60  60  10
TUSCALOOSA  36  66  54  73  51 /   0   0  50  60  20
CALERA      32  60  52  71  50 /   0   0  40  70  20
AUBURN      34  59  48  72  49 /   0   0  20  60  20
MONTGOMERY  39  64  52  74  54 /  10   0  10  60  20
TROY        38  66  50  74  53 /   0   0  10  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 281725
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1220 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SHOWING UP ON RADAR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND
LIMITED REPORTS OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ON UPSTREAM OBS...WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE WEST. EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRAY FLURRIES
OR ICE PELLETS IN THE NORTHWEST...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S. MADE AN
ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS BUT DID NOT CHANGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AREAS IN THE WEST WERE WARMING UP QUICKLY BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING IN SOON.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AFTER A CLEAR START TO THE MORNING...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 434 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT
WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP A BIT...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOCATIONS
THAT TOUCH THAT 32 DEGREE MARK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL BE
VERY BRIEF. SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE SOME LIGHT FROST...BUT
THE WINDS WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH FROM DEVELOPING.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE
MEAN TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING SMALL RAIN CHANCES
TODAY WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT UNDER EAST FLOW. BELIEVE ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE MAIN MESSAGE STAYS THE SAME....A FAIRLY SHORT DURATION
FREEZE AND LOWS MOSTLY 29 TO 32...WITH NORMALLY COOLER SHELTERED
LOCATIONS A TAD COOLER.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGREEABLE THAT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
LATE SUNDAY. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH GOOD
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER TWO COLD FRONTS ENTER
THE AREA DURING THE WEEK AS WE GET A BIT UNSETTLED. RAIN CHANCES
ARE MENTIONED VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. MENTIONED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES...BUT
NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE THE TYPICAL
DIVERGENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER RANGE ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING

75

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281725
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1220 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SHOWING UP ON RADAR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND
LIMITED REPORTS OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ON UPSTREAM OBS...WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE WEST. EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRAY FLURRIES
OR ICE PELLETS IN THE NORTHWEST...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S. MADE AN
ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS BUT DID NOT CHANGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AREAS IN THE WEST WERE WARMING UP QUICKLY BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING IN SOON.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AFTER A CLEAR START TO THE MORNING...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 434 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT
WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP A BIT...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOCATIONS
THAT TOUCH THAT 32 DEGREE MARK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL BE
VERY BRIEF. SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE SOME LIGHT FROST...BUT
THE WINDS WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH FROM DEVELOPING.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE
MEAN TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING SMALL RAIN CHANCES
TODAY WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT UNDER EAST FLOW. BELIEVE ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE MAIN MESSAGE STAYS THE SAME....A FAIRLY SHORT DURATION
FREEZE AND LOWS MOSTLY 29 TO 32...WITH NORMALLY COOLER SHELTERED
LOCATIONS A TAD COOLER.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGREEABLE THAT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
LATE SUNDAY. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH GOOD
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER TWO COLD FRONTS ENTER
THE AREA DURING THE WEEK AS WE GET A BIT UNSETTLED. RAIN CHANCES
ARE MENTIONED VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. MENTIONED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES...BUT
NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE THE TYPICAL
DIVERGENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER RANGE ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING

75

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 281725
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1220 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SHOWING UP ON RADAR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND
LIMITED REPORTS OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ON UPSTREAM OBS...WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE WEST. EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRAY FLURRIES
OR ICE PELLETS IN THE NORTHWEST...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S. MADE AN
ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS BUT DID NOT CHANGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AREAS IN THE WEST WERE WARMING UP QUICKLY BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING IN SOON.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AFTER A CLEAR START TO THE MORNING...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 434 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT
WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP A BIT...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOCATIONS
THAT TOUCH THAT 32 DEGREE MARK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL BE
VERY BRIEF. SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE SOME LIGHT FROST...BUT
THE WINDS WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH FROM DEVELOPING.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE
MEAN TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING SMALL RAIN CHANCES
TODAY WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT UNDER EAST FLOW. BELIEVE ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE MAIN MESSAGE STAYS THE SAME....A FAIRLY SHORT DURATION
FREEZE AND LOWS MOSTLY 29 TO 32...WITH NORMALLY COOLER SHELTERED
LOCATIONS A TAD COOLER.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGREEABLE THAT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
LATE SUNDAY. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH GOOD
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER TWO COLD FRONTS ENTER
THE AREA DURING THE WEEK AS WE GET A BIT UNSETTLED. RAIN CHANCES
ARE MENTIONED VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. MENTIONED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES...BUT
NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE THE TYPICAL
DIVERGENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER RANGE ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING

75

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281725
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1220 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SHOWING UP ON RADAR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND
LIMITED REPORTS OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ON UPSTREAM OBS...WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE WEST. EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRAY FLURRIES
OR ICE PELLETS IN THE NORTHWEST...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S. MADE AN
ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS BUT DID NOT CHANGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AREAS IN THE WEST WERE WARMING UP QUICKLY BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING IN SOON.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AFTER A CLEAR START TO THE MORNING...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 434 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT
WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP A BIT...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOCATIONS
THAT TOUCH THAT 32 DEGREE MARK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL BE
VERY BRIEF. SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE SOME LIGHT FROST...BUT
THE WINDS WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH FROM DEVELOPING.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE
MEAN TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING SMALL RAIN CHANCES
TODAY WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT UNDER EAST FLOW. BELIEVE ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE MAIN MESSAGE STAYS THE SAME....A FAIRLY SHORT DURATION
FREEZE AND LOWS MOSTLY 29 TO 32...WITH NORMALLY COOLER SHELTERED
LOCATIONS A TAD COOLER.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGREEABLE THAT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
LATE SUNDAY. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH GOOD
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER TWO COLD FRONTS ENTER
THE AREA DURING THE WEEK AS WE GET A BIT UNSETTLED. RAIN CHANCES
ARE MENTIONED VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. MENTIONED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES...BUT
NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE THE TYPICAL
DIVERGENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER RANGE ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING

75

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 281525
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1025 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SHOWING UP ON RADAR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND
LIMITED REPORTS OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ON UPSTREAM OBS...WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE WEST. EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRAY FLURRIES
OR ICE PELLETS IN THE NORTHWEST...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S. MADE AN
ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS BUT DID NOT CHANGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AREAS IN THE WEST WERE WARMING UP QUICKLY BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING IN SOON.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AREA OF CLOUDINESS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM MO AND AR WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TAF SITES LATER TODAY. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM MODEL
INDICATIONS THAT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6000 FT...SO NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. COULD BE A FEW SPOTS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT TCL THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CHANCES OF THAT RAIN
HAVING ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACT WAS SO REMOTE THAT I DECIDED TO
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 434 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT
WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP A BIT...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOCATIONS
THAT TOUCH THAT 32 DEGREE MARK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL BE
VERY BRIEF. SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE SOME LIGHT FROST...BUT
THE WINDS WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH FROM DEVELOPING.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE
MEAN TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING SMALL RAIN CHANCES
TODAY WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT UNDER EAST FLOW. BELIEVE ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE MAIN MESSAGE STAYS THE SAME....A FAIRLY SHORT DURATION
FREEZE AND LOWS MOSTLY 29 TO 32...WITH NORMALLY COOLER SHELTERED
LOCATIONS A TAD COOLER.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGREEABLE THAT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
LATE SUNDAY. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH GOOD
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER TWO COLD FRONTS ENTER
THE AREA DURING THE WEEK AS WE GET A BIT UNSETTLED. RAIN CHANCES
ARE MENTIONED VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. MENTIONED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES...BUT
NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE THE TYPICAL
DIVERGENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER RANGE ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  29  56  49  68 /  10   0   0  60  60
ANNISTON    51  30  57  49  69 /  10   0   0  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  50  30  58  53  70 /  20  10   0  50  60
TUSCALOOSA  52  32  64  55  74 /  20  10   0  50  60
CALERA      51  32  58  53  73 /  20  10   0  50  60
AUBURN      55  33  57  49  71 /  10   0   0  20  40
MONTGOMERY  58  37  62  53  74 /  10  10   0  10  40
TROY        58  36  64  51  74 /  10  10   0  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281525
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1025 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SHOWING UP ON RADAR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND
LIMITED REPORTS OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ON UPSTREAM OBS...WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE WEST. EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRAY FLURRIES
OR ICE PELLETS IN THE NORTHWEST...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S. MADE AN
ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS BUT DID NOT CHANGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AREAS IN THE WEST WERE WARMING UP QUICKLY BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING IN SOON.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AREA OF CLOUDINESS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM MO AND AR WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TAF SITES LATER TODAY. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM MODEL
INDICATIONS THAT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6000 FT...SO NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. COULD BE A FEW SPOTS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT TCL THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CHANCES OF THAT RAIN
HAVING ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACT WAS SO REMOTE THAT I DECIDED TO
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 434 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT
WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP A BIT...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOCATIONS
THAT TOUCH THAT 32 DEGREE MARK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL BE
VERY BRIEF. SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE SOME LIGHT FROST...BUT
THE WINDS WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH FROM DEVELOPING.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE
MEAN TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING SMALL RAIN CHANCES
TODAY WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT UNDER EAST FLOW. BELIEVE ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE MAIN MESSAGE STAYS THE SAME....A FAIRLY SHORT DURATION
FREEZE AND LOWS MOSTLY 29 TO 32...WITH NORMALLY COOLER SHELTERED
LOCATIONS A TAD COOLER.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGREEABLE THAT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
LATE SUNDAY. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH GOOD
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER TWO COLD FRONTS ENTER
THE AREA DURING THE WEEK AS WE GET A BIT UNSETTLED. RAIN CHANCES
ARE MENTIONED VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. MENTIONED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES...BUT
NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE THE TYPICAL
DIVERGENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER RANGE ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  29  56  49  68 /  10   0   0  60  60
ANNISTON    51  30  57  49  69 /  10   0   0  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  50  30  58  53  70 /  20  10   0  50  60
TUSCALOOSA  52  32  64  55  74 /  20  10   0  50  60
CALERA      51  32  58  53  73 /  20  10   0  50  60
AUBURN      55  33  57  49  71 /  10   0   0  20  40
MONTGOMERY  58  37  62  53  74 /  10  10   0  10  40
TROY        58  36  64  51  74 /  10  10   0  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281525
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1025 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SHOWING UP ON RADAR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND
LIMITED REPORTS OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ON UPSTREAM OBS...WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE WEST. EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRAY FLURRIES
OR ICE PELLETS IN THE NORTHWEST...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S. MADE AN
ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS BUT DID NOT CHANGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AREAS IN THE WEST WERE WARMING UP QUICKLY BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING IN SOON.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AREA OF CLOUDINESS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM MO AND AR WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TAF SITES LATER TODAY. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM MODEL
INDICATIONS THAT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6000 FT...SO NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. COULD BE A FEW SPOTS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT TCL THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CHANCES OF THAT RAIN
HAVING ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACT WAS SO REMOTE THAT I DECIDED TO
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 434 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT
WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP A BIT...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOCATIONS
THAT TOUCH THAT 32 DEGREE MARK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL BE
VERY BRIEF. SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE SOME LIGHT FROST...BUT
THE WINDS WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH FROM DEVELOPING.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE
MEAN TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING SMALL RAIN CHANCES
TODAY WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT UNDER EAST FLOW. BELIEVE ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE MAIN MESSAGE STAYS THE SAME....A FAIRLY SHORT DURATION
FREEZE AND LOWS MOSTLY 29 TO 32...WITH NORMALLY COOLER SHELTERED
LOCATIONS A TAD COOLER.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGREEABLE THAT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
LATE SUNDAY. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH GOOD
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER TWO COLD FRONTS ENTER
THE AREA DURING THE WEEK AS WE GET A BIT UNSETTLED. RAIN CHANCES
ARE MENTIONED VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. MENTIONED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES...BUT
NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE THE TYPICAL
DIVERGENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER RANGE ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  29  56  49  68 /  10   0   0  60  60
ANNISTON    51  30  57  49  69 /  10   0   0  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  50  30  58  53  70 /  20  10   0  50  60
TUSCALOOSA  52  32  64  55  74 /  20  10   0  50  60
CALERA      51  32  58  53  73 /  20  10   0  50  60
AUBURN      55  33  57  49  71 /  10   0   0  20  40
MONTGOMERY  58  37  62  53  74 /  10  10   0  10  40
TROY        58  36  64  51  74 /  10  10   0  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 281525
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1025 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SHOWING UP ON RADAR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND
LIMITED REPORTS OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ON UPSTREAM OBS...WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE WEST. EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRAY FLURRIES
OR ICE PELLETS IN THE NORTHWEST...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S. MADE AN
ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS BUT DID NOT CHANGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AREAS IN THE WEST WERE WARMING UP QUICKLY BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING IN SOON.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AREA OF CLOUDINESS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM MO AND AR WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TAF SITES LATER TODAY. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM MODEL
INDICATIONS THAT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6000 FT...SO NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. COULD BE A FEW SPOTS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT TCL THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CHANCES OF THAT RAIN
HAVING ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACT WAS SO REMOTE THAT I DECIDED TO
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

/61/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 434 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT
WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP A BIT...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOCATIONS
THAT TOUCH THAT 32 DEGREE MARK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL BE
VERY BRIEF. SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE SOME LIGHT FROST...BUT
THE WINDS WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH FROM DEVELOPING.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE
MEAN TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING SMALL RAIN CHANCES
TODAY WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT UNDER EAST FLOW. BELIEVE ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE MAIN MESSAGE STAYS THE SAME....A FAIRLY SHORT DURATION
FREEZE AND LOWS MOSTLY 29 TO 32...WITH NORMALLY COOLER SHELTERED
LOCATIONS A TAD COOLER.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGREEABLE THAT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
LATE SUNDAY. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH GOOD
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER TWO COLD FRONTS ENTER
THE AREA DURING THE WEEK AS WE GET A BIT UNSETTLED. RAIN CHANCES
ARE MENTIONED VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. MENTIONED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES...BUT
NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE THE TYPICAL
DIVERGENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER RANGE ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  29  56  49  68 /  10   0   0  60  60
ANNISTON    51  30  57  49  69 /  10   0   0  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  50  30  58  53  70 /  20  10   0  50  60
TUSCALOOSA  52  32  64  55  74 /  20  10   0  50  60
CALERA      51  32  58  53  73 /  20  10   0  50  60
AUBURN      55  33  57  49  71 /  10   0   0  20  40
MONTGOMERY  58  37  62  53  74 /  10  10   0  10  40
TROY        58  36  64  51  74 /  10  10   0  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 281157
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
657 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT
WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP A BIT...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOCATIONS
THAT TOUCH THAT 32 DEGREE MARK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL BE
VERY BRIEF. SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE SOME LIGHT FROST...BUT
THE WINDS WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH FROM DEVELOPING.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE
MEAN TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING SMALL RAIN CHANCES
TODAY WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT UNDER EAST FLOW. BELIEVE ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE MAIN MESSAGE STAYS THE SAME....A FAIRLY SHORT DURATION
FREEZE AND LOWS MOSTLY 29 TO 32...WITH NORMALLY COOLER SHELTERED
LOCATIONS A TAD COOLER.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGREEABLE THAT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
LATE SUNDAY. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH GOOD
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER TWO COLD FRONTS ENTER
THE AREA DURING THE WEEK AS WE GET A BIT UNSETTLED. RAIN CHANCES
ARE MENTIONED VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. MENTIONED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES...BUT
NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE THE TYPICAL
DIVERGENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER RANGE ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING

75


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AREA OF CLOUDINESS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM MO AND AR WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TAF SITES LATER TODAY. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM MODEL
INDICATIONS THAT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6000 FT...SO NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. COULD BE A FEW SPOTS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT TCL THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CHANCES OF THAT RAIN
HAVING ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACT WAS SO REMOTE THAT I DECIDED TO
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
WINSTON.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BIBB-CHAMBERS-
CHILTON-COOSA-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-SHELBY-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 281157
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
657 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT
WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP A BIT...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOCATIONS
THAT TOUCH THAT 32 DEGREE MARK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL BE
VERY BRIEF. SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE SOME LIGHT FROST...BUT
THE WINDS WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH FROM DEVELOPING.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE
MEAN TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING SMALL RAIN CHANCES
TODAY WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT UNDER EAST FLOW. BELIEVE ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE MAIN MESSAGE STAYS THE SAME....A FAIRLY SHORT DURATION
FREEZE AND LOWS MOSTLY 29 TO 32...WITH NORMALLY COOLER SHELTERED
LOCATIONS A TAD COOLER.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGREEABLE THAT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
LATE SUNDAY. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH GOOD
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER TWO COLD FRONTS ENTER
THE AREA DURING THE WEEK AS WE GET A BIT UNSETTLED. RAIN CHANCES
ARE MENTIONED VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. MENTIONED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES...BUT
NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE THE TYPICAL
DIVERGENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER RANGE ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING

75


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AREA OF CLOUDINESS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM MO AND AR WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TAF SITES LATER TODAY. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM MODEL
INDICATIONS THAT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6000 FT...SO NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. COULD BE A FEW SPOTS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT TCL THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CHANCES OF THAT RAIN
HAVING ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACT WAS SO REMOTE THAT I DECIDED TO
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
WINSTON.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BIBB-CHAMBERS-
CHILTON-COOSA-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-SHELBY-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 281157
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
657 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT
WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP A BIT...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOCATIONS
THAT TOUCH THAT 32 DEGREE MARK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL BE
VERY BRIEF. SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE SOME LIGHT FROST...BUT
THE WINDS WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH FROM DEVELOPING.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE
MEAN TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING SMALL RAIN CHANCES
TODAY WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT UNDER EAST FLOW. BELIEVE ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE MAIN MESSAGE STAYS THE SAME....A FAIRLY SHORT DURATION
FREEZE AND LOWS MOSTLY 29 TO 32...WITH NORMALLY COOLER SHELTERED
LOCATIONS A TAD COOLER.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGREEABLE THAT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
LATE SUNDAY. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH GOOD
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER TWO COLD FRONTS ENTER
THE AREA DURING THE WEEK AS WE GET A BIT UNSETTLED. RAIN CHANCES
ARE MENTIONED VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. MENTIONED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES...BUT
NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE THE TYPICAL
DIVERGENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER RANGE ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING

75


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AREA OF CLOUDINESS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM MO AND AR WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TAF SITES LATER TODAY. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM MODEL
INDICATIONS THAT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6000 FT...SO NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. COULD BE A FEW SPOTS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT TCL THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CHANCES OF THAT RAIN
HAVING ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACT WAS SO REMOTE THAT I DECIDED TO
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
WINSTON.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BIBB-CHAMBERS-
CHILTON-COOSA-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-SHELBY-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 281157
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
657 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT
WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP A BIT...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOCATIONS
THAT TOUCH THAT 32 DEGREE MARK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL BE
VERY BRIEF. SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE SOME LIGHT FROST...BUT
THE WINDS WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH FROM DEVELOPING.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE
MEAN TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING SMALL RAIN CHANCES
TODAY WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT UNDER EAST FLOW. BELIEVE ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE MAIN MESSAGE STAYS THE SAME....A FAIRLY SHORT DURATION
FREEZE AND LOWS MOSTLY 29 TO 32...WITH NORMALLY COOLER SHELTERED
LOCATIONS A TAD COOLER.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGREEABLE THAT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
LATE SUNDAY. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH GOOD
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER TWO COLD FRONTS ENTER
THE AREA DURING THE WEEK AS WE GET A BIT UNSETTLED. RAIN CHANCES
ARE MENTIONED VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. MENTIONED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES...BUT
NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE THE TYPICAL
DIVERGENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER RANGE ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING

75


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AREA OF CLOUDINESS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM MO AND AR WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TAF SITES LATER TODAY. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM MODEL
INDICATIONS THAT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6000 FT...SO NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. COULD BE A FEW SPOTS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT TCL THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CHANCES OF THAT RAIN
HAVING ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACT WAS SO REMOTE THAT I DECIDED TO
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
WINSTON.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BIBB-CHAMBERS-
CHILTON-COOSA-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-SHELBY-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 280934
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
434 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT
WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP A BIT...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOCATIONS
THAT TOUCH THAT 32 DEGREE MARK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL BE
VERY BRIEF. SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE SOME LIGHT FROST...BUT
THE WINDS WILL PREVENT TOO MUCH FROM DEVELOPING.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE
MEAN TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH BRINGING SMALL RAIN CHANCES
TODAY WEST. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT UNDER EAST FLOW. BELIEVE ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE MAIN MESSAGE STAYS THE SAME....A FAIRLY SHORT DURATION
FREEZE AND LOWS MOSTLY 29 TO 32...WITH NORMALLY COOLER SHELTERED
LOCATIONS A TAD COOLER.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGREEABLE THAT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
LATE SUNDAY. THIS PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH GOOD
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER TWO COLD FRONTS ENTER
THE AREA DURING THE WEEK AS WE GET A BIT SUNSETTLED. RAIN CHANCES
ARE MENTIONED VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. MENTIONED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES...BUT
NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE THE TYPICAL
DIVERGENT AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER RANGE ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROF WILL PRODUCE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THRU 03Z. THE CIGS ARE HIGH BASED AND ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL NOT LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS BLO 5 MILES...SO LEFT OUT PCPN IN
FORECAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY 03Z AS SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS PASSES
TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO
WEST ALABAMA BY 17Z AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE NW.

58/ROSE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  28  55  49  68 /  10   0   0  60  60
ANNISTON    51  29  56  49  69 /  10   0   0  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  50  32  57  53  70 /  20  10   0  50  60
TUSCALOOSA  52  35  64  55  74 /  20  10   0  50  60
CALERA      51  33  58  53  73 /  20  10   0  50  60
AUBURN      55  33  57  49  71 /  10   0   0  20  40
MONTGOMERY  58  38  62  53  74 /  10  10   0  10  40
TROY        58  35  64  51  74 /  10  10   0  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
WINSTON.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BIBB-CHAMBERS-
CHILTON-COOSA-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-SHELBY-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 280327
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1027 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAVE DISSIPATED
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS. STILL ANTICIPATING A LIGHT FREEZE AND POCKETS OF
FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF AS SURFACE WINDS DECREASE.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROF WILL PRODUCE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THRU 03Z. THE CIGS ARE HIGH BASED AND ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL NOT LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS BLO 5 MILES...SO LEFT OUT PCPN IN
FORECAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY 03Z AS SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS PASSES
TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO
WEST ALABAMA BY 17Z AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE NW.

58/ROSE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH NW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTH. ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND MAY NOT EVEN MEASURE AS
RAINFALL WILL BE BRIEF. CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
WILL SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AFTER 5
AM. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WARNING AS ALREADY IN
PLACE...BUT ADDED IN A ROW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST IN WHICH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BUT SOME PATCHY FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND COULD PROVIDE
RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL HELP
RE-ENFORCE THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND ANOTHER FREEZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A TOUCH WARMER
OVER THE PAST RUNS...SO WILL STICK WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AS
THEY ARE JUST UNDER THE MAIN CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. WILL LIKELY
SEE ANOTHER AREA OF FROST ONCE AGAIN SO COUNTIES NOT IN THE WATCH
MAY STILL BE IN AN ADVISORY FOR A SECOND NIGHT. THE DURATION OF
THE FREEZING AND FROSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE LONGER SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WORKS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THEN WILL STALL
OUT AND MEANDER AROUND FOR THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE
MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY. A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL
FINALLY CLEAR OUT THE MOIST AIRMASS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OVERALL THE NEXT TWO WEEKS LOOK ACTIVE...WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE PERIOD BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     31  51  29  58  51 /  10  10  10   0  50
ANNISTON    31  51  29  59  49 /  10  10  10   0  30
BIRMINGHAM  34  49  33  62  53 /  10  20  10   0  30
TUSCALOOSA  36  51  36  65  54 /  10  20  10   0  20
CALERA      35  51  36  62  54 /  10  10  10   0  20
AUBURN      37  56  33  62  48 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  37  59  37  67  52 /  10  10  10   0  10
TROY        36  58  35  66  50 /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-MARION-
RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-WALKER-WINSTON.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
WINSTON.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BIBB-CHAMBERS-CHILTON-
COOSA-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-SHELBY-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 280327
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1027 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAVE DISSIPATED
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS. STILL ANTICIPATING A LIGHT FREEZE AND POCKETS OF
FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF AS SURFACE WINDS DECREASE.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROF WILL PRODUCE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THRU 03Z. THE CIGS ARE HIGH BASED AND ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL NOT LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS BLO 5 MILES...SO LEFT OUT PCPN IN
FORECAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY 03Z AS SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS PASSES
TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO
WEST ALABAMA BY 17Z AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE NW.

58/ROSE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH NW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTH. ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND MAY NOT EVEN MEASURE AS
RAINFALL WILL BE BRIEF. CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
WILL SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AFTER 5
AM. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WARNING AS ALREADY IN
PLACE...BUT ADDED IN A ROW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST IN WHICH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BUT SOME PATCHY FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND COULD PROVIDE
RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL HELP
RE-ENFORCE THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND ANOTHER FREEZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A TOUCH WARMER
OVER THE PAST RUNS...SO WILL STICK WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AS
THEY ARE JUST UNDER THE MAIN CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. WILL LIKELY
SEE ANOTHER AREA OF FROST ONCE AGAIN SO COUNTIES NOT IN THE WATCH
MAY STILL BE IN AN ADVISORY FOR A SECOND NIGHT. THE DURATION OF
THE FREEZING AND FROSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE LONGER SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WORKS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THEN WILL STALL
OUT AND MEANDER AROUND FOR THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE
MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY. A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL
FINALLY CLEAR OUT THE MOIST AIRMASS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OVERALL THE NEXT TWO WEEKS LOOK ACTIVE...WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE PERIOD BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     31  51  29  58  51 /  10  10  10   0  50
ANNISTON    31  51  29  59  49 /  10  10  10   0  30
BIRMINGHAM  34  49  33  62  53 /  10  20  10   0  30
TUSCALOOSA  36  51  36  65  54 /  10  20  10   0  20
CALERA      35  51  36  62  54 /  10  10  10   0  20
AUBURN      37  56  33  62  48 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  37  59  37  67  52 /  10  10  10   0  10
TROY        36  58  35  66  50 /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-MARION-
RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-WALKER-WINSTON.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
WINSTON.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BIBB-CHAMBERS-CHILTON-
COOSA-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-SHELBY-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 280327
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1027 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAVE DISSIPATED
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS. STILL ANTICIPATING A LIGHT FREEZE AND POCKETS OF
FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF AS SURFACE WINDS DECREASE.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROF WILL PRODUCE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THRU 03Z. THE CIGS ARE HIGH BASED AND ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL NOT LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS BLO 5 MILES...SO LEFT OUT PCPN IN
FORECAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY 03Z AS SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS PASSES
TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO
WEST ALABAMA BY 17Z AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE NW.

58/ROSE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH NW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTH. ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND MAY NOT EVEN MEASURE AS
RAINFALL WILL BE BRIEF. CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
WILL SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AFTER 5
AM. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WARNING AS ALREADY IN
PLACE...BUT ADDED IN A ROW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST IN WHICH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BUT SOME PATCHY FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND COULD PROVIDE
RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL HELP
RE-ENFORCE THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND ANOTHER FREEZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A TOUCH WARMER
OVER THE PAST RUNS...SO WILL STICK WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AS
THEY ARE JUST UNDER THE MAIN CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. WILL LIKELY
SEE ANOTHER AREA OF FROST ONCE AGAIN SO COUNTIES NOT IN THE WATCH
MAY STILL BE IN AN ADVISORY FOR A SECOND NIGHT. THE DURATION OF
THE FREEZING AND FROSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE LONGER SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WORKS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THEN WILL STALL
OUT AND MEANDER AROUND FOR THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE
MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY. A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL
FINALLY CLEAR OUT THE MOIST AIRMASS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OVERALL THE NEXT TWO WEEKS LOOK ACTIVE...WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE PERIOD BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     31  51  29  58  51 /  10  10  10   0  50
ANNISTON    31  51  29  59  49 /  10  10  10   0  30
BIRMINGHAM  34  49  33  62  53 /  10  20  10   0  30
TUSCALOOSA  36  51  36  65  54 /  10  20  10   0  20
CALERA      35  51  36  62  54 /  10  10  10   0  20
AUBURN      37  56  33  62  48 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  37  59  37  67  52 /  10  10  10   0  10
TROY        36  58  35  66  50 /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-MARION-
RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-WALKER-WINSTON.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
WINSTON.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BIBB-CHAMBERS-CHILTON-
COOSA-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-SHELBY-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 280327
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1027 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAVE DISSIPATED
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS. STILL ANTICIPATING A LIGHT FREEZE AND POCKETS OF
FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF AS SURFACE WINDS DECREASE.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROF WILL PRODUCE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THRU 03Z. THE CIGS ARE HIGH BASED AND ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL NOT LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS BLO 5 MILES...SO LEFT OUT PCPN IN
FORECAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY 03Z AS SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS PASSES
TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO
WEST ALABAMA BY 17Z AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE NW.

58/ROSE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 248 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH NW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTH. ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND MAY NOT EVEN MEASURE AS
RAINFALL WILL BE BRIEF. CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
WILL SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AFTER 5
AM. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WARNING AS ALREADY IN
PLACE...BUT ADDED IN A ROW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST IN WHICH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BUT SOME PATCHY FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND COULD PROVIDE
RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL HELP
RE-ENFORCE THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND ANOTHER FREEZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A TOUCH WARMER
OVER THE PAST RUNS...SO WILL STICK WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AS
THEY ARE JUST UNDER THE MAIN CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. WILL LIKELY
SEE ANOTHER AREA OF FROST ONCE AGAIN SO COUNTIES NOT IN THE WATCH
MAY STILL BE IN AN ADVISORY FOR A SECOND NIGHT. THE DURATION OF
THE FREEZING AND FROSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE LONGER SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WORKS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THEN WILL STALL
OUT AND MEANDER AROUND FOR THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE
MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY. A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL
FINALLY CLEAR OUT THE MOIST AIRMASS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OVERALL THE NEXT TWO WEEKS LOOK ACTIVE...WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE PERIOD BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     31  51  29  58  51 /  10  10  10   0  50
ANNISTON    31  51  29  59  49 /  10  10  10   0  30
BIRMINGHAM  34  49  33  62  53 /  10  20  10   0  30
TUSCALOOSA  36  51  36  65  54 /  10  20  10   0  20
CALERA      35  51  36  62  54 /  10  10  10   0  20
AUBURN      37  56  33  62  48 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  37  59  37  67  52 /  10  10  10   0  10
TROY        36  58  35  66  50 /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-MARION-
RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-WALKER-WINSTON.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
WINSTON.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BIBB-CHAMBERS-CHILTON-
COOSA-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-SHELBY-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 272339
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
639 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH NW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTH. ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND MAY NOT EVEN MEASURE AS
RAINFALL WILL BE BRIEF. CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
WILL SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AFTER 5
AM. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WARNING AS ALREADY IN
PLACE...BUT ADDED IN A ROW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST IN WHICH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BUT SOME PATCHY FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND COULD PROVIDE
RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL HELP
RE-ENFORCE THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND ANOTHER FREEZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A TOUCH WARMER
OVER THE PAST RUNS...SO WILL STICK WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AS
THEY ARE JUST UNDER THE MAIN CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. WILL LIKELY
SEE ANOTHER AREA OF FROST ONCE AGAIN SO COUNTIES NOT IN THE WATCH
MAY STILL BE IN AN ADVISORY FOR A SECOND NIGHT. THE DURATION OF
THE FREEZING AND FROSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE LONGER SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WORKS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THEN WILL STALL
OUT AND MEANDER AROUND FOR THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE
MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY. A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL
FINALLY CLEAR OUT THE MOIST AIRMASS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OVERALL THE NEXT TWO WEEKS LOOK ACTIVE...WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE PERIOD BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROF WILL PRODUCE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THRU 03Z. THE CIGS ARE HIGH BASED AND ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL NOT LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS BLO 5 MILES...SO LEFT OUT PCPN IN
FORECAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY 03Z AS SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS PASSES
TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO
WEST ALABAMA BY 17Z AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE NW.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     31  51  29  58  51 /  20  10  10   0  50
ANNISTON    31  51  29  59  49 /  20  10  10   0  30
BIRMINGHAM  34  49  33  62  53 /  30  20  10   0  30
TUSCALOOSA  36  51  36  65  54 /  40  20  10   0  20
CALERA      35  51  36  62  54 /  20  10  10   0  20
AUBURN      37  56  33  62  48 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  37  59  37  67  52 /  10  10  10   0  10
TROY        36  58  35  66  50 /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-MARION-
RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-WALKER-WINSTON.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
WINSTON.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BIBB-CHAMBERS-
CHILTON-COOSA-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-SHELBY-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 272339
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
639 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH NW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTH. ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND MAY NOT EVEN MEASURE AS
RAINFALL WILL BE BRIEF. CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
WILL SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AFTER 5
AM. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WARNING AS ALREADY IN
PLACE...BUT ADDED IN A ROW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST IN WHICH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BUT SOME PATCHY FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND COULD PROVIDE
RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL HELP
RE-ENFORCE THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND ANOTHER FREEZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A TOUCH WARMER
OVER THE PAST RUNS...SO WILL STICK WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AS
THEY ARE JUST UNDER THE MAIN CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. WILL LIKELY
SEE ANOTHER AREA OF FROST ONCE AGAIN SO COUNTIES NOT IN THE WATCH
MAY STILL BE IN AN ADVISORY FOR A SECOND NIGHT. THE DURATION OF
THE FREEZING AND FROSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE LONGER SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WORKS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THEN WILL STALL
OUT AND MEANDER AROUND FOR THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE
MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY. A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL
FINALLY CLEAR OUT THE MOIST AIRMASS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OVERALL THE NEXT TWO WEEKS LOOK ACTIVE...WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE PERIOD BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROF WILL PRODUCE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THRU 03Z. THE CIGS ARE HIGH BASED AND ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL NOT LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS BLO 5 MILES...SO LEFT OUT PCPN IN
FORECAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY 03Z AS SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS PASSES
TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO
WEST ALABAMA BY 17Z AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE NW.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     31  51  29  58  51 /  20  10  10   0  50
ANNISTON    31  51  29  59  49 /  20  10  10   0  30
BIRMINGHAM  34  49  33  62  53 /  30  20  10   0  30
TUSCALOOSA  36  51  36  65  54 /  40  20  10   0  20
CALERA      35  51  36  62  54 /  20  10  10   0  20
AUBURN      37  56  33  62  48 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  37  59  37  67  52 /  10  10  10   0  10
TROY        36  58  35  66  50 /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-MARION-
RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-WALKER-WINSTON.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
WINSTON.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BIBB-CHAMBERS-
CHILTON-COOSA-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-SHELBY-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 272339
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
639 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH NW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTH. ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND MAY NOT EVEN MEASURE AS
RAINFALL WILL BE BRIEF. CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
WILL SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AFTER 5
AM. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WARNING AS ALREADY IN
PLACE...BUT ADDED IN A ROW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST IN WHICH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BUT SOME PATCHY FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND COULD PROVIDE
RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL HELP
RE-ENFORCE THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND ANOTHER FREEZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A TOUCH WARMER
OVER THE PAST RUNS...SO WILL STICK WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AS
THEY ARE JUST UNDER THE MAIN CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. WILL LIKELY
SEE ANOTHER AREA OF FROST ONCE AGAIN SO COUNTIES NOT IN THE WATCH
MAY STILL BE IN AN ADVISORY FOR A SECOND NIGHT. THE DURATION OF
THE FREEZING AND FROSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE LONGER SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WORKS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THEN WILL STALL
OUT AND MEANDER AROUND FOR THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE
MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY. A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL
FINALLY CLEAR OUT THE MOIST AIRMASS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OVERALL THE NEXT TWO WEEKS LOOK ACTIVE...WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE PERIOD BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROF WILL PRODUCE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THRU 03Z. THE CIGS ARE HIGH BASED AND ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL NOT LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS BLO 5 MILES...SO LEFT OUT PCPN IN
FORECAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY 03Z AS SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS PASSES
TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO
WEST ALABAMA BY 17Z AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE NW.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     31  51  29  58  51 /  20  10  10   0  50
ANNISTON    31  51  29  59  49 /  20  10  10   0  30
BIRMINGHAM  34  49  33  62  53 /  30  20  10   0  30
TUSCALOOSA  36  51  36  65  54 /  40  20  10   0  20
CALERA      35  51  36  62  54 /  20  10  10   0  20
AUBURN      37  56  33  62  48 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  37  59  37  67  52 /  10  10  10   0  10
TROY        36  58  35  66  50 /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-MARION-
RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-WALKER-WINSTON.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
WINSTON.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BIBB-CHAMBERS-
CHILTON-COOSA-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-SHELBY-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 272339
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
639 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH NW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTH. ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND MAY NOT EVEN MEASURE AS
RAINFALL WILL BE BRIEF. CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
WILL SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AFTER 5
AM. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WARNING AS ALREADY IN
PLACE...BUT ADDED IN A ROW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST IN WHICH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BUT SOME PATCHY FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND COULD PROVIDE
RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL HELP
RE-ENFORCE THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND ANOTHER FREEZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A TOUCH WARMER
OVER THE PAST RUNS...SO WILL STICK WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AS
THEY ARE JUST UNDER THE MAIN CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. WILL LIKELY
SEE ANOTHER AREA OF FROST ONCE AGAIN SO COUNTIES NOT IN THE WATCH
MAY STILL BE IN AN ADVISORY FOR A SECOND NIGHT. THE DURATION OF
THE FREEZING AND FROSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE LONGER SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WORKS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THEN WILL STALL
OUT AND MEANDER AROUND FOR THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE
MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY. A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL
FINALLY CLEAR OUT THE MOIST AIRMASS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OVERALL THE NEXT TWO WEEKS LOOK ACTIVE...WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE PERIOD BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROF WILL PRODUCE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THRU 03Z. THE CIGS ARE HIGH BASED AND ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL NOT LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS BLO 5 MILES...SO LEFT OUT PCPN IN
FORECAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY 03Z AS SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS PASSES
TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO
WEST ALABAMA BY 17Z AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE NW.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     31  51  29  58  51 /  20  10  10   0  50
ANNISTON    31  51  29  59  49 /  20  10  10   0  30
BIRMINGHAM  34  49  33  62  53 /  30  20  10   0  30
TUSCALOOSA  36  51  36  65  54 /  40  20  10   0  20
CALERA      35  51  36  62  54 /  20  10  10   0  20
AUBURN      37  56  33  62  48 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  37  59  37  67  52 /  10  10  10   0  10
TROY        36  58  35  66  50 /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-MARION-
RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-WALKER-WINSTON.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
WINSTON.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BIBB-CHAMBERS-
CHILTON-COOSA-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-SHELBY-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER.

&&

$$




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