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000
FXUS64 KBMX 290318
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1018 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION FIRED UP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A FEW STORMS WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT THE
FRONT AND CONVECTION HAVE NOW PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE FILTERING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO BIG CHANGES WERE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A STRONG COLD FRONT...UNUSUAL FOR JULY...WAS EXITING THE FAR
SOUTHERN REACHES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL
LEAVE THE FORECAST VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW GUSTS WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. THE AS
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES ON TUESDAY...A FEW WIND GUSTS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE. THESE GUSTS WILL ONLY BE 15 TO 20 KTS. WINDS REMAIN OR
BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND LAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  83  57  84  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  83  57  83  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  65  84  59  84  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  86  60  86  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      66  85  60  85  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      67  87  60  86  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  68  89  61  88  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        67  89  60  87  63 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 290318
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1018 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION FIRED UP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A FEW STORMS WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT THE
FRONT AND CONVECTION HAVE NOW PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE FILTERING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO BIG CHANGES WERE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A STRONG COLD FRONT...UNUSUAL FOR JULY...WAS EXITING THE FAR
SOUTHERN REACHES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL
LEAVE THE FORECAST VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW GUSTS WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. THE AS
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES ON TUESDAY...A FEW WIND GUSTS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE. THESE GUSTS WILL ONLY BE 15 TO 20 KTS. WINDS REMAIN OR
BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND LAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  83  57  84  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  83  57  83  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  65  84  59  84  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  86  60  86  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      66  85  60  85  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      67  87  60  86  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  68  89  61  88  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        67  89  60  87  63 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 282333
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
633 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE FRONT. STORMS HAVE BEEN PULSING UP AND
DOWN WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS AND ONE SEVERE STORM SO FAR IN PIKE
AND BARBOUR COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS COMBINATION
HAS YIELDED SBCAPE VALUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF
3000 J/KG. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK WITH ONLY 10-20 KTS OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE UP AND DOWN AND A FEW
STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
THROUGH 7 PM. MODELS INDICATE THE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY
AROUND 7 PM AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA.  AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRIER AIR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PW VALUES TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE 50S BRINGING IN A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS. THE COLDEST MORNING WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ALREADY BELOW RECORD LOWS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND THE DRY AIRMASS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST. THE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOLER THAN
AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE QUESTION REMAINS WHEN
WILL THE MOISTURE RETURN. MODELS INDICATE THAT PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO THE NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS MOISTURE VALUES CONTINUE TO CREEP
UP LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE BROAD SCALE TROUGH.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A STRONG COLD FRONT...UNUSUAL FOR JULY...WAS EXITING THE FAR
SOUTHERN REACHES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL
LEAVE THE FORECAST VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW GUSTS WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. THE AS
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES ON TUESDAY...A FEW WIND GUSTS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE. THESE GUSTS WILL ONLY BE 15 TO 20 KTS. WINDS REMAIN OR
BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND LAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

75

&&

.CLIMATE...

WEDNESDAY 7/30

STATION       FORECAST TEMP      RECORD LOW(YEAR)

BIRMINGHAM         59              61 (1994)
MONTGOMERY         61              66 (1889)
TUSCALOOSA         60              67 (1954, 1960, 1965, 1969)
ANNISTON           57              61 (1903)

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  83  57  84  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  83  57  83  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  65  84  59  84  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  86  60  86  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      66  85  60  85  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      67  87  60  86  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  68  89  61  88  65 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        67  89  60  87  63 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 282031
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
331 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE FRONT. STORMS HAVE BEEN PULSING UP AND
DOWN WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS AND ONE SEVERE STORM SO FAR IN PIKE
AND BARBOUR COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS COMBINATION
HAS YIELDED SBCAPE VALUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF
3000 J/KG. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK WITH ONLY 10-20 KTS OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE UP AND DOWN AND A FEW
STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
THROUGH 7 PM. MODELS INDICATE THE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY
AROUND 7 PM AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA.  AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRIER AIR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PW VALUES TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE 50S BRINGING IN A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS. THE COLDEST MORNING WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ALREADY BELOW RECORD LOWS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND THE DRY AIRMASS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST. THE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOLER THAN
AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE QUESTION REMAINS WHEN
WILL THE MOISTURE RETURN. MODELS INDICATE THAT PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO THE NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS MOISTURE VALUES CONTINUE TO CREEP
UP LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE BROAD SCALE TROUGH.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE FRONT IS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TAFS...SO RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN
REMOVED. MGM AND TOI STILL HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON SO WENT WITH VCTS WITH ONLY TEMPO LOW MVFR
CLOUDS FOR 2 HOURS. BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE AFTER 20Z THROUGH
23Z. WITH ABSOLUTELY ZERO COVERAGE AT THE TIME OF TAF ISSUANCE I
DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE ANY TEMP TSRA AT THIS
TIME FOR MGM OR TOI. WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.

AS FOR TONIGHT...WINDS FINALLY CALM DOWN AFTER 6Z AND THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE AT SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. REALLY DEPENDS
ON HOW QUICKLY THE DRY AIR CAN WORK IN. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

16


&&

.CLIMATE...

WEDNESDAY 7/30

STATION       FORECAST TEMP      RECORD LOW(YEAR)

BIRMINGHAM         59              61 (1994)
MONTGOMERY         61              66 (1889)
TUSCALOOSA         60              67 (1954, 1960, 1965, 1969)
ANNISTON           57              61 (1903)

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  83  57  84  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  83  57  83  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  65  84  59  84  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  86  60  86  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      66  85  60  85  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      67  87  60  86  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  68  89  61  88  65 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        67  89  60  87  63 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 282031
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
331 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE FRONT. STORMS HAVE BEEN PULSING UP AND
DOWN WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS AND ONE SEVERE STORM SO FAR IN PIKE
AND BARBOUR COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS COMBINATION
HAS YIELDED SBCAPE VALUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF
3000 J/KG. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK WITH ONLY 10-20 KTS OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE UP AND DOWN AND A FEW
STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
THROUGH 7 PM. MODELS INDICATE THE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY
AROUND 7 PM AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA.  AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRIER AIR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PW VALUES TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE 50S BRINGING IN A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS. THE COLDEST MORNING WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ALREADY BELOW RECORD LOWS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND THE DRY AIRMASS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST. THE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOLER THAN
AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE QUESTION REMAINS WHEN
WILL THE MOISTURE RETURN. MODELS INDICATE THAT PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO THE NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS MOISTURE VALUES CONTINUE TO CREEP
UP LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE BROAD SCALE TROUGH.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE FRONT IS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TAFS...SO RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN
REMOVED. MGM AND TOI STILL HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON SO WENT WITH VCTS WITH ONLY TEMPO LOW MVFR
CLOUDS FOR 2 HOURS. BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE AFTER 20Z THROUGH
23Z. WITH ABSOLUTELY ZERO COVERAGE AT THE TIME OF TAF ISSUANCE I
DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE ANY TEMP TSRA AT THIS
TIME FOR MGM OR TOI. WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.

AS FOR TONIGHT...WINDS FINALLY CALM DOWN AFTER 6Z AND THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE AT SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. REALLY DEPENDS
ON HOW QUICKLY THE DRY AIR CAN WORK IN. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

16


&&

.CLIMATE...

WEDNESDAY 7/30

STATION       FORECAST TEMP      RECORD LOW(YEAR)

BIRMINGHAM         59              61 (1994)
MONTGOMERY         61              66 (1889)
TUSCALOOSA         60              67 (1954, 1960, 1965, 1969)
ANNISTON           57              61 (1903)

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  83  57  84  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    64  83  57  83  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  65  84  59  84  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  65  86  60  86  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      66  85  60  85  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      67  87  60  86  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  68  89  61  88  65 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        67  89  60  87  63 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 281714
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1214 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LETS PLAY...WHERE IS THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. CHECKING THE
WIND SHIFT LINE ONE COULD PLACE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE SHELBY
COUNTY AIRPORT ALREADY. BASED ON SATELLITE...THE FRONT IS MOVING
THROUGH TUSCALOOSA...BIRMINGHAM...TO TALLADEGA. BASED ON
DEWPOINTS. THE FRONT IS STILL NORTH OF BIRMINGHAM AND TUSCALOOSA
AS DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 70S SOUTH OF HERE. NOW THE FINAL
THING...BASED ON DEWPOINT CHANGES...THE FRONT IS BETWEEN
BIRMINGHAM AND CALERA. SO WITH ALL OF THIS FACTORED INTO THE
EQUATION WE WILL GO WITH AN EFFECTIVE FRONT NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND MOVING SOUTH. WITH THIS ANALYSIS REARRANGED POPS AND TRENDS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. REMOVED THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE BETTER PHRASEOLOGY FOR THE
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. PLAN ON LEAVING THE SEVERE THREAT AS IS
WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM DEMOPOLIS TO ALEXANDER CITY. STILL FEEL
AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF I-85 AS WE WORK INTO
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE FRONT IS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TAFS...SO RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN
REMOVED. MGM AND TOI STILL HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON SO WENT WITH VCTS WITH ONLY TEMPO LOW MVFR
CLOUDS FOR 2 HOURS. BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE AFTER 20Z THROUGH
23Z. WITH ABSOLUTELY ZERO COVERAGE AT THE TIME OF TAF ISSUANCE I
DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE ANY TEMP TSRA AT THIS
TIME FOR MGM OR TOI. WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.

AS FOR TONIGHT...WINDS FINALLY CALM DOWN AFTER 6Z AND THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE AT SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. REALLY DEPENDS
ON HOW QUICKLY THE DRY AIR CAN WORK IN. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 281714
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1214 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LETS PLAY...WHERE IS THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. CHECKING THE
WIND SHIFT LINE ONE COULD PLACE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE SHELBY
COUNTY AIRPORT ALREADY. BASED ON SATELLITE...THE FRONT IS MOVING
THROUGH TUSCALOOSA...BIRMINGHAM...TO TALLADEGA. BASED ON
DEWPOINTS. THE FRONT IS STILL NORTH OF BIRMINGHAM AND TUSCALOOSA
AS DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 70S SOUTH OF HERE. NOW THE FINAL
THING...BASED ON DEWPOINT CHANGES...THE FRONT IS BETWEEN
BIRMINGHAM AND CALERA. SO WITH ALL OF THIS FACTORED INTO THE
EQUATION WE WILL GO WITH AN EFFECTIVE FRONT NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND MOVING SOUTH. WITH THIS ANALYSIS REARRANGED POPS AND TRENDS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. REMOVED THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE BETTER PHRASEOLOGY FOR THE
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. PLAN ON LEAVING THE SEVERE THREAT AS IS
WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM DEMOPOLIS TO ALEXANDER CITY. STILL FEEL
AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF I-85 AS WE WORK INTO
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE FRONT IS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TAFS...SO RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN
REMOVED. MGM AND TOI STILL HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING AN ISOLATED
STORM THIS AFTERNOON SO WENT WITH VCTS WITH ONLY TEMPO LOW MVFR
CLOUDS FOR 2 HOURS. BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE AFTER 20Z THROUGH
23Z. WITH ABSOLUTELY ZERO COVERAGE AT THE TIME OF TAF ISSUANCE I
DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE ANY TEMP TSRA AT THIS
TIME FOR MGM OR TOI. WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.

AS FOR TONIGHT...WINDS FINALLY CALM DOWN AFTER 6Z AND THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE AT SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. REALLY DEPENDS
ON HOW QUICKLY THE DRY AIR CAN WORK IN. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 281512
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1012 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LETS PLAY...WHERE IS THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. CHECKING THE
WIND SHIFT LINE ONE COULD PLACE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE SHELBY
COUNTY AIRPORT ALREADY. BASED ON SATELLITE...THE FRONT IS MOVING
THROUGH TUSCALOOSA...BIRMINGHAM...TO TALLADEGA. BASED ON
DEWPOINTS. THE FRONT IS STILL NORTH OF BIRMINGHAM AND TUSCALOOSA
AS DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 70S SOUTH OF HERE. NOW THE FINAL
THING...BASED ON DEWPOINT CHANGES...THE FRONT IS BETWEEN
BIRMINGHAM AND CALERA. SO WITH ALL OF THIS FACTORED INTO THE
EQUATION WE WILL GO WITH AN EFFECTIVE FRONT NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND MOVING SOUTH. WITH THIS ANALYSIS REARRANGED POPS AND TRENDS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. REMOVED THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE BETTER PHRASEOLOGY FOR THE
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. PLAN ON LEAVING THE SEVERE THREAT AS IS
WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM DEMOPOLIS TO ALEXANDER CITY. STILL FEEL
AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF I-85 AS WE WORK INTO
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THRU HUNTSVILLE AND OBS SHOW SOME MVFR CIGS
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL THEY BEGIN TO MIX OUT A BIT AND/OR THE
FRONT PASSES THRU. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS MORNING SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE NORTHERN SITES
THRU 15Z. EXPECT A INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON SO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...MGM/TOI...COULD HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE AT OBSERVING RA OR TS THIS AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NW AND
INCREASING TO 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL THEN DECREASE TO AT OR BELOW 5 KTS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE TOO DRY FOR WIDESPREAD FOG.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     87  63  82  58  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    88  64  82  58  82 /  10   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  89  65  83  60  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  91  65  85  61  85 /  20   0   0   0   0
CALERA      90  66  84  61  84 /  20   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      91  67  86  61  85 /  40  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  94  68  88  63  87 /  50  10   0   0   0
TROY        94  67  88  62  86 /  50  20   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 281512
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1012 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LETS PLAY...WHERE IS THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. CHECKING THE
WIND SHIFT LINE ONE COULD PLACE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE SHELBY
COUNTY AIRPORT ALREADY. BASED ON SATELLITE...THE FRONT IS MOVING
THROUGH TUSCALOOSA...BIRMINGHAM...TO TALLADEGA. BASED ON
DEWPOINTS. THE FRONT IS STILL NORTH OF BIRMINGHAM AND TUSCALOOSA
AS DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 70S SOUTH OF HERE. NOW THE FINAL
THING...BASED ON DEWPOINT CHANGES...THE FRONT IS BETWEEN
BIRMINGHAM AND CALERA. SO WITH ALL OF THIS FACTORED INTO THE
EQUATION WE WILL GO WITH AN EFFECTIVE FRONT NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND MOVING SOUTH. WITH THIS ANALYSIS REARRANGED POPS AND TRENDS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. REMOVED THE LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE BETTER PHRASEOLOGY FOR THE
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. PLAN ON LEAVING THE SEVERE THREAT AS IS
WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM DEMOPOLIS TO ALEXANDER CITY. STILL FEEL
AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF I-85 AS WE WORK INTO
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THRU HUNTSVILLE AND OBS SHOW SOME MVFR CIGS
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL THEY BEGIN TO MIX OUT A BIT AND/OR THE
FRONT PASSES THRU. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS MORNING SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE NORTHERN SITES
THRU 15Z. EXPECT A INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON SO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...MGM/TOI...COULD HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE AT OBSERVING RA OR TS THIS AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NW AND
INCREASING TO 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL THEN DECREASE TO AT OR BELOW 5 KTS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE TOO DRY FOR WIDESPREAD FOG.

19


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     87  63  82  58  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    88  64  82  58  82 /  10   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  89  65  83  60  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  91  65  85  61  85 /  20   0   0   0   0
CALERA      90  66  84  61  84 /  20   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      91  67  86  61  85 /  40  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  94  68  88  63  87 /  50  10   0   0   0
TROY        94  67  88  62  86 /  50  20   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 281149
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
649 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING SUMMER. A SURFACE FRONT AT THIS HOUR
IS AT THE DOORSTEP OF THE NORTHWEST PART OF ALABAMA. IT IS STILL
ANTICIPATED TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN ENERGY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...WE
WILL STILL HAVE A FEW FACTORS IN OUR FAVOR. ONE WILL BE THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE PRIME HEAT OF THE DAY. NOT
SURPRISINGLY THERE IS PLENTY OF CAPE AVAILABLE. SO...WITH THE
FORCING FROM THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF AROUND 2
INCHES...THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME TSRA ALONG THE
FRONT. THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS HOUR
IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF BUT JUST A PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE FRONT...WILL LEAVE IN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE 1 (OUT OF 5) MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MARCH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TAP FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...
THE RIDGE DOES BUILD A TAD FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALLOWING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO LINGER
ANOTHER DAY. LOOK FOR DRY AND VERY COOL READINGS FOR LATE JULY FOR
EARLY TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

BY THURSDAY...LOOK FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND A SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN FLORIDA TO WAFFLE AND
RETROGRADE BACK INTO ALABAMA AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK UP
IN RESPONSE AS THE COOLER FLOW IS CUT OFF...BUT SHOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS HOT AS OF LATE AS RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO RISE
AS WELL AS THE LOW RETROGRADES AND INTERACTS WITH UPPER SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE STAGNANT LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WITH SEVERAL LOBES SWINGING AROUND THE BASE AS
WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND EVEN DIGGING FURTHER AS WE APPROACH
SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY...THIS WILL SET UP FOR SEVERAL RAIN
OPPORTUNITIES IN OUR EXTENDED.

AS FOR THE TROPICS...MODELS SHOW THE LOW REMNANT IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC CONTINUING TO PROGRESS WESTWARD POSSIBLY TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEFORE IT GETS TO THE CARIBBEAN BUT NOT POSING
A THREAT TO THE U.S. MAINLAND AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE MODELS FOR ANY CHANGES AS WE HEAD INTO OUR NORMALLY MORE
FAVORABLE MONTH OF AUGUST.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THRU HUNTSVILLE AND OBS SHOW SOME MVFR CIGS
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL THEY BEGIN TO MIX OUT A BIT AND/OR THE
FRONT PASSES THRU. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS MORNING SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE NORTHERN SITES
THRU 15Z. EXPECT A INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON SO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...MGM/TOI...COULD HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE AT OBSERVING RA OR TS THIS AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NW AND
INCREASING TO 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL THEN DECREASE TO AT OR BELOW 5 KTS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE TOO DRY FOR WIDESPREAD FOG.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     87  63  82  58  83 /  20   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    88  64  82  58  82 /  20   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  89  65  83  60  83 /  20   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  91  65  85  61  85 /  20   0   0   0   0
CALERA      90  66  84  61  84 /  30   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      91  67  86  61  85 /  40  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  94  68  88  63  87 /  50  20   0   0   0
TROY        93  67  88  62  86 /  60  30   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 281149
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
649 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING SUMMER. A SURFACE FRONT AT THIS HOUR
IS AT THE DOORSTEP OF THE NORTHWEST PART OF ALABAMA. IT IS STILL
ANTICIPATED TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN ENERGY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...WE
WILL STILL HAVE A FEW FACTORS IN OUR FAVOR. ONE WILL BE THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE PRIME HEAT OF THE DAY. NOT
SURPRISINGLY THERE IS PLENTY OF CAPE AVAILABLE. SO...WITH THE
FORCING FROM THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF AROUND 2
INCHES...THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME TSRA ALONG THE
FRONT. THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS HOUR
IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF BUT JUST A PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE FRONT...WILL LEAVE IN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE 1 (OUT OF 5) MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MARCH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TAP FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...
THE RIDGE DOES BUILD A TAD FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALLOWING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO LINGER
ANOTHER DAY. LOOK FOR DRY AND VERY COOL READINGS FOR LATE JULY FOR
EARLY TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

BY THURSDAY...LOOK FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND A SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN FLORIDA TO WAFFLE AND
RETROGRADE BACK INTO ALABAMA AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK UP
IN RESPONSE AS THE COOLER FLOW IS CUT OFF...BUT SHOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS HOT AS OF LATE AS RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO RISE
AS WELL AS THE LOW RETROGRADES AND INTERACTS WITH UPPER SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE STAGNANT LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WITH SEVERAL LOBES SWINGING AROUND THE BASE AS
WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND EVEN DIGGING FURTHER AS WE APPROACH
SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY...THIS WILL SET UP FOR SEVERAL RAIN
OPPORTUNITIES IN OUR EXTENDED.

AS FOR THE TROPICS...MODELS SHOW THE LOW REMNANT IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC CONTINUING TO PROGRESS WESTWARD POSSIBLY TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEFORE IT GETS TO THE CARIBBEAN BUT NOT POSING
A THREAT TO THE U.S. MAINLAND AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE MODELS FOR ANY CHANGES AS WE HEAD INTO OUR NORMALLY MORE
FAVORABLE MONTH OF AUGUST.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THRU HUNTSVILLE AND OBS SHOW SOME MVFR CIGS
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL THEY BEGIN TO MIX OUT A BIT AND/OR THE
FRONT PASSES THRU. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS MORNING SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE NORTHERN SITES
THRU 15Z. EXPECT A INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON SO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...MGM/TOI...COULD HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE AT OBSERVING RA OR TS THIS AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NW AND
INCREASING TO 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL THEN DECREASE TO AT OR BELOW 5 KTS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE TOO DRY FOR WIDESPREAD FOG.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     87  63  82  58  83 /  20   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    88  64  82  58  82 /  20   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  89  65  83  60  83 /  20   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  91  65  85  61  85 /  20   0   0   0   0
CALERA      90  66  84  61  84 /  30   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      91  67  86  61  85 /  40  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  94  68  88  63  87 /  50  20   0   0   0
TROY        93  67  88  62  86 /  60  30   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 281004
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
504 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING SUMMER. A SURFACE FRONT AT THIS HOUR
IS AT THE DOORSTEP OF THE NORTHWEST PART OF ALABAMA. IT IS STILL
ANTICIPATED TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN ENERGY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...WE
WILL STILL HAVE A FEW FACTORS IN OUR FAVOR. ONE WILL BE THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE PRIME HEAT OF THE DAY. NOT
SURPRISINGLY THERE IS PLENTY OF CAPE AVAILABLE. SO...WITH THE
FORCING FROM THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF AROUND 2
INCHES...THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME TSRA ALONG THE
FRONT. THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS HOUR
IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF BUT JUST A PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE FRONT...WILL LEAVE IN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE 1 (OUT OF 5) MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MARCH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TAP FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...
THE RIDGE DOES BUILD A TAD FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALLOWING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO LINGER
ANOTHER DAY. LOOK FOR DRY AND VERY COOL READINGS FOR LATE JULY FOR
EARLY TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

BY THURSDAY...LOOK FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND A SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN FLORIDA TO WAFFLE AND
RETROGRADE BACK INTO ALABAMA AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK UP
IN RESPONSE AS THE COOLER FLOW IS CUT OFF...BUT SHOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS HOT AS OF LATE AS RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO RISE
AS WELL AS THE LOW RETROGRADES AND INTERACTS WITH UPPER SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE STAGNANT LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WITH SEVERAL LOBES SWINGING AROUND THE BASE AS
WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND EVEN DIGGING FURTHER AS WE APPROACH
SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY...THIS WILL SET UP FOR SEVERAL RAIN
OPPORTUNITIES IN OUR EXTENDED.

AS FOR THE TROPICS...MODELS SHOW THE LOW REMNANT IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC CONTINUING TO PROGRESS WESTWARD POSSIBLY TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEFORE IT GETS TO THE CARIBBEAN BUT NOT POSING
A THREAT TO THE U.S. MAINLAND AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE MODELS FOR ANY CHANGES AS WE HEAD INTO OUR NORMALLY MORE
FAVORABLE MONTH OF AUGUST.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT TOI WHERE MVFR/IFR VIS COULD
OCCUR. IN FACT TOI IS ALREADY CLOSE TO MVFR AT THIS TIME.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
AFTER SUNRISE. THIS IS A TOUCH SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THAT SAID REMOVED THE TEMPO SHRA FOR THE
NORTH AS THERE JUST DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT MUCH LIFT FOR A
PERSISTENT TIME FRAME NORTH. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN WINDOW FOR THE
NORTH TO SEE ANY RAIN/STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS STATED LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SLOWER AND NOW HAVE IT NEAR A
DYA TO ALX LINE BY 18Z. DID CONTINUE WITH VCTS FOR TOI AND MGM
AFTER 19Z. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO RAINFALL TIMING.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     87  63  82  58  83 /  20   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    88  64  82  58  82 /  20   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  89  65  83  60  83 /  20   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  91  65  85  61  85 /  20   0   0   0   0
CALERA      90  66  84  61  84 /  30   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      91  67  86  61  85 /  40  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  94  68  88  63  87 /  50  20   0   0   0
TROY        93  67  88  62  86 /  60  30   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16







000
FXUS64 KBMX 281004
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
504 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING SUMMER. A SURFACE FRONT AT THIS HOUR
IS AT THE DOORSTEP OF THE NORTHWEST PART OF ALABAMA. IT IS STILL
ANTICIPATED TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN ENERGY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...WE
WILL STILL HAVE A FEW FACTORS IN OUR FAVOR. ONE WILL BE THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE PRIME HEAT OF THE DAY. NOT
SURPRISINGLY THERE IS PLENTY OF CAPE AVAILABLE. SO...WITH THE
FORCING FROM THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF AROUND 2
INCHES...THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME TSRA ALONG THE
FRONT. THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS HOUR
IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF BUT JUST A PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE FRONT...WILL LEAVE IN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE 1 (OUT OF 5) MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MARCH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TAP FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...
THE RIDGE DOES BUILD A TAD FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALLOWING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO LINGER
ANOTHER DAY. LOOK FOR DRY AND VERY COOL READINGS FOR LATE JULY FOR
EARLY TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

BY THURSDAY...LOOK FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND A SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN FLORIDA TO WAFFLE AND
RETROGRADE BACK INTO ALABAMA AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK UP
IN RESPONSE AS THE COOLER FLOW IS CUT OFF...BUT SHOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS HOT AS OF LATE AS RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO RISE
AS WELL AS THE LOW RETROGRADES AND INTERACTS WITH UPPER SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE STAGNANT LOW PRESSURE THROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WITH SEVERAL LOBES SWINGING AROUND THE BASE AS
WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND EVEN DIGGING FURTHER AS WE APPROACH
SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY...THIS WILL SET UP FOR SEVERAL RAIN
OPPORTUNITIES IN OUR EXTENDED.

AS FOR THE TROPICS...MODELS SHOW THE LOW REMNANT IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC CONTINUING TO PROGRESS WESTWARD POSSIBLY TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEFORE IT GETS TO THE CARIBBEAN BUT NOT POSING
A THREAT TO THE U.S. MAINLAND AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE MODELS FOR ANY CHANGES AS WE HEAD INTO OUR NORMALLY MORE
FAVORABLE MONTH OF AUGUST.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT TOI WHERE MVFR/IFR VIS COULD
OCCUR. IN FACT TOI IS ALREADY CLOSE TO MVFR AT THIS TIME.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
AFTER SUNRISE. THIS IS A TOUCH SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THAT SAID REMOVED THE TEMPO SHRA FOR THE
NORTH AS THERE JUST DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT MUCH LIFT FOR A
PERSISTENT TIME FRAME NORTH. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN WINDOW FOR THE
NORTH TO SEE ANY RAIN/STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS STATED LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SLOWER AND NOW HAVE IT NEAR A
DYA TO ALX LINE BY 18Z. DID CONTINUE WITH VCTS FOR TOI AND MGM
AFTER 19Z. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO RAINFALL TIMING.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     87  63  82  58  83 /  20   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    88  64  82  58  82 /  20   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  89  65  83  60  83 /  20   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  91  65  85  61  85 /  20   0   0   0   0
CALERA      90  66  84  61  84 /  30   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      91  67  86  61  85 /  40  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  94  68  88  63  87 /  50  20   0   0   0
TROY        93  67  88  62  86 /  60  30   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16






000
FXUS64 KBMX 280441
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ABNORMALLY SHARP SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST...AS
BIG TROUGH IS DIGGING OUR WAY. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
FROM NEAR THE KENTUCKY TENNESSEE STATE LINE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER A LARGE PART OF TENNESSEE. THE
ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES WITH
LESSENING COVERAGE. BUT DID INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A TAD NORTHEAST.

BULK SHEAR VALUES CURRENTLY NEAR 50 KTS WHERE SEVERE IS OCCURRING
DROPS OFF TO 25 KTS ON MONDAY OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER BUOYANT AND THE LOW LEVELS ARE
VERY MOIST. AMAZINGLY ENOUGH...MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY
REACH THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT THRESHOLD WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT.

THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THE STORM STRENGTH ON MONDAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DIURNALLY DEPENDENT. WINDS ALOFT DO INCREASE...SO SOME UP
GROWTH IS POSSIBLE INTO SEGMENTS...SO ISOLATED SEVERE REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST. DID MOVE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AREA BACK NORTHWARD
A BIT. NOW IT WILL BE ADVERTISED NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DEMOPOLIS TO CLANTON TO ALEXANDER CITY. THE MAIN THREAT REMAINS
DAMAGING WINDS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. UPDATED FORECAST AND HWO ALREADY
OUT.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT TOI WHERE MVFR/IFR VIS COULD
OCCUR. IN FACT TOI IS ALREADY CLOSE TO MVFR AT THIS TIME.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
AFTER SUNRISE. THIS IS A TOUCH SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THAT SAID REMOVED THE TEMPO SHRA FOR THE
NORTH AS THERE JUST DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT MUCH LIFT FOR A
PERSISTENT TIME FRAME NORTH. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN WINDOW FOR THE
NORTH TO SEE ANY RAIN/STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS STATED LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SLOWER AND NOW HAVE IT NEAR A
DYA TO ALX LINE BY 18Z. DID CONTINUE WITH VCTS FOR TOI AND MGM
AFTER 19Z. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO RAINFALL TIMING.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 280325
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1025 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ABNORMALLY SHARP SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST...AS
BIG TROUGH IS DIGGING OUR WAY. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
FROM NEAR THE KENTUCKY TENNESSEE STATE LINE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER A LARGE PART OF TENNESSEE. THE
ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES WITH
LESSENING COVERAGE. BUT DID INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A TAD NORTHEAST.

BULK SHEAR VALUES CURRENTLY NEAR 50 KTS WHERE SEVERE IS OCCURRING
DROPS OFF TO 25 KTS ON MONDAY OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER BUOYANT AND THE LOW LEVELS ARE
VERY MOIST. AMAZINGLY ENOUGH...MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY
REACH THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT THRESHOLD WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT.

THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THE STORM STRENGTH ON MONDAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DIURNALLY DEPENDENT. WINDS ALOFT DO INCREASE...SO SOME UP
GROWTH IS POSSIBLE INTO SEGMENTS...SO ISOLATED SEVERE REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST. DID MOVE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AREA BACK NORTHWARD
A BIT. NOW IT WILL BE ADVERTISED NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DEMOPOLIS TO CLANTON TO ALEXANDER CITY. THE MAIN THREAT REMAINS
DAMAGING WINDS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. UPDATED FORECAST AND HWO ALREADY
OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT TOI WHERE MVFR/IFR VIS COULD
OCCUR.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA. EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. WENT AHEAD AND PUT IN TEMPO SHRA FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES BUT LEFT OUT THUNDER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS WILL MERGE INTO
THE MVFR CRITERIA SO WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED THAT WAY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE RAIN SOUTH OF MGM BY 18 SO TOI WOULD BE
THE BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THE RE-FIRING OF
THE LINE. DID GO AHEAD AND THROW IN VCTS AT MGM AS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AT 18Z AS WELL. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO
RAINFALL TIMING.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 324 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THAT WILL PUT AN END
TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
OVERNIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST THE MID 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RATHER
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS WELL.

FRONTS RARELY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA WITHOUT RAINFALL DURING THE
SUMMER...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED QPF FOR MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING RATHER
SKIMPY RAIN CHANCES...IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT HARD TO BELIEVE WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 2.0-2.1 INCHES IN A NARROW ZONE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY IN
CASE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY REMAINS LOW...BUT THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA AFTER 15Z MONDAY. STORM INTENSITY IS QUESTIONABLE...BUT
500MB WINDS OF 25-30 KTS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION
OR GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. RECORD
LOWS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH DAY 7. EVENTUALLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES MAY ENTER INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  88  62  83  57 /  40  20   0   0   0
ANNISTON    75  89  64  84  59 /  20  20   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  77  89  64  84  60 /  20  20   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  77  91  65  85  61 /  20  20   0   0   0
CALERA      76  90  65  85  61 /  10  30   0   0   0
AUBURN      74  91  67  86  61 /  10  40  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  77  93  67  88  63 /  10  50  10   0   0
TROY        76  94  66  88  61 /  10  60  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 280325
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1025 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ABNORMALLY SHARP SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST...AS
BIG TROUGH IS DIGGING OUR WAY. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
FROM NEAR THE KENTUCKY TENNESSEE STATE LINE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER A LARGE PART OF TENNESSEE. THE
ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES WITH
LESSENING COVERAGE. BUT DID INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A TAD NORTHEAST.

BULK SHEAR VALUES CURRENTLY NEAR 50 KTS WHERE SEVERE IS OCCURRING
DROPS OFF TO 25 KTS ON MONDAY OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER BUOYANT AND THE LOW LEVELS ARE
VERY MOIST. AMAZINGLY ENOUGH...MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY
REACH THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT THRESHOLD WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT.

THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THE STORM STRENGTH ON MONDAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DIURNALLY DEPENDENT. WINDS ALOFT DO INCREASE...SO SOME UP
GROWTH IS POSSIBLE INTO SEGMENTS...SO ISOLATED SEVERE REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST. DID MOVE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AREA BACK NORTHWARD
A BIT. NOW IT WILL BE ADVERTISED NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DEMOPOLIS TO CLANTON TO ALEXANDER CITY. THE MAIN THREAT REMAINS
DAMAGING WINDS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. UPDATED FORECAST AND HWO ALREADY
OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT TOI WHERE MVFR/IFR VIS COULD
OCCUR.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA. EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. WENT AHEAD AND PUT IN TEMPO SHRA FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES BUT LEFT OUT THUNDER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS WILL MERGE INTO
THE MVFR CRITERIA SO WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED THAT WAY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE RAIN SOUTH OF MGM BY 18 SO TOI WOULD BE
THE BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THE RE-FIRING OF
THE LINE. DID GO AHEAD AND THROW IN VCTS AT MGM AS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AT 18Z AS WELL. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO
RAINFALL TIMING.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 324 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THAT WILL PUT AN END
TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
OVERNIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST THE MID 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RATHER
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS WELL.

FRONTS RARELY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA WITHOUT RAINFALL DURING THE
SUMMER...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED QPF FOR MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING RATHER
SKIMPY RAIN CHANCES...IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT HARD TO BELIEVE WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 2.0-2.1 INCHES IN A NARROW ZONE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY IN
CASE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY REMAINS LOW...BUT THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA AFTER 15Z MONDAY. STORM INTENSITY IS QUESTIONABLE...BUT
500MB WINDS OF 25-30 KTS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION
OR GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. RECORD
LOWS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH DAY 7. EVENTUALLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES MAY ENTER INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  88  62  83  57 /  40  20   0   0   0
ANNISTON    75  89  64  84  59 /  20  20   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  77  89  64  84  60 /  20  20   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  77  91  65  85  61 /  20  20   0   0   0
CALERA      76  90  65  85  61 /  10  30   0   0   0
AUBURN      74  91  67  86  61 /  10  40  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  77  93  67  88  63 /  10  50  10   0   0
TROY        76  94  66  88  61 /  10  60  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 280003
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
703 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THAT WILL PUT AN END
TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
OVERNIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST THE MID 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RATHER
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS WELL.

FRONTS RARELY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA WITHOUT RAINFALL DURING THE
SUMMER...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED QPF FOR MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING RATHER
SKIMPY RAIN CHANCES...IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT HARD TO BELIEVE WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 2.0-2.1 INCHES IN A NARROW ZONE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY IN
CASE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY REMAINS LOW...BUT THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA AFTER 15Z MONDAY. STORM INTENSITY IS QUESTIONABLE...BUT
500MB WINDS OF 25-30 KTS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION
OR GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. RECORD
LOWS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH DAY 7. EVENTUALLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES MAY ENTER INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT TOI WHERE MVFR/IFR VIS COULD
OCCUR.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA. EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. WENT AHEAD AND PUT IN TEMPO SHRA FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES BUT LEFT OUT THUNDER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS WILL MERGE INTO
THE MVFR CRITERIA SO WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED THAT WAY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE RAIN SOUTH OF MGM BY 18 SO TOI WOULD BE
THE BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THE RE-FIRING OF
THE LINE. DID GO AHEAD AND THROW IN VCTS AT MGM AS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AT 18Z AS WELL. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO
RAINFALL TIMING.


16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 280003
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
703 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THAT WILL PUT AN END
TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
OVERNIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST THE MID 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RATHER
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS WELL.

FRONTS RARELY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA WITHOUT RAINFALL DURING THE
SUMMER...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED QPF FOR MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING RATHER
SKIMPY RAIN CHANCES...IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT HARD TO BELIEVE WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 2.0-2.1 INCHES IN A NARROW ZONE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY IN
CASE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY REMAINS LOW...BUT THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA AFTER 15Z MONDAY. STORM INTENSITY IS QUESTIONABLE...BUT
500MB WINDS OF 25-30 KTS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION
OR GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. RECORD
LOWS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH DAY 7. EVENTUALLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES MAY ENTER INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT TOI WHERE MVFR/IFR VIS COULD
OCCUR.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA. EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. WENT AHEAD AND PUT IN TEMPO SHRA FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES BUT LEFT OUT THUNDER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS WILL MERGE INTO
THE MVFR CRITERIA SO WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED THAT WAY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE RAIN SOUTH OF MGM BY 18 SO TOI WOULD BE
THE BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THE RE-FIRING OF
THE LINE. DID GO AHEAD AND THROW IN VCTS AT MGM AS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AT 18Z AS WELL. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO
RAINFALL TIMING.


16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 272024
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
324 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THAT WILL PUT AN END
TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
OVERNIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST THE MID 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RATHER
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS WELL.

FRONTS RARELY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA WITHOUT RAINFALL DURING THE
SUMMER...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED QPF FOR MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING RATHER
SKIMPY RAIN CHANCES...IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT HARD TO BELIEVE WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 2.0-2.1 INCHES IN A NARROW ZONE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY IN
CASE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY REMAINS LOW...BUT THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA AFTER 15Z MONDAY. STORM INTENSITY IS QUESTIONABLE...BUT
500MB WINDS OF 25-30 KTS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION
OR GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. RECORD
LOWS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH DAY 7. EVENTUALLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES MAY ENTER INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 18
KTS BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS
AT TOI WHERE MVFR VIS COULD OCCUR. GIVEN HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND PERSISTENCE...THE VIS AT TOI MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD WITH THE NEXT FORECAST.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. NOT CONFIDENT ON JUST HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE OR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS MIGHT HOVER JUST
ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA...AND FOR NOW WILL CARRY ONLY VCSH. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION REFIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...EXPECT THAT BOUNDARY TO BE SOUTH OF ALL CENTRAL
ALABAMA TERMINALS BY THAT TIME. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO RAINFALL
TIMING.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  88  62  83  57 /  30  20   0   0   0
ANNISTON    75  89  64  84  59 /  20  20   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  77  89  64  84  60 /  20  20   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  77  91  65  85  61 /  20  20   0   0   0
CALERA      76  90  65  85  61 /  10  30   0   0   0
AUBURN      74  91  67  86  61 /  10  40  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  77  93  67  88  63 /  10  50  10   0   0
TROY        76  94  66  88  61 /  10  60  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...CHILTON...
DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$

87/14






000
FXUS64 KBMX 272024
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
324 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL BE WATCHING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THAT WILL PUT AN END
TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
OVERNIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST THE MID 70S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RATHER
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS WELL.

FRONTS RARELY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA WITHOUT RAINFALL DURING THE
SUMMER...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED QPF FOR MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING RATHER
SKIMPY RAIN CHANCES...IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT HARD TO BELIEVE WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 2.0-2.1 INCHES IN A NARROW ZONE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY IN
CASE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY REMAINS LOW...BUT THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA AFTER 15Z MONDAY. STORM INTENSITY IS QUESTIONABLE...BUT
500MB WINDS OF 25-30 KTS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION
OR GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. RECORD
LOWS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH DAY 7. EVENTUALLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES MAY ENTER INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 18
KTS BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS
AT TOI WHERE MVFR VIS COULD OCCUR. GIVEN HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND PERSISTENCE...THE VIS AT TOI MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD WITH THE NEXT FORECAST.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. NOT CONFIDENT ON JUST HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE OR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS MIGHT HOVER JUST
ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA...AND FOR NOW WILL CARRY ONLY VCSH. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION REFIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...EXPECT THAT BOUNDARY TO BE SOUTH OF ALL CENTRAL
ALABAMA TERMINALS BY THAT TIME. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO RAINFALL
TIMING.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  88  62  83  57 /  30  20   0   0   0
ANNISTON    75  89  64  84  59 /  20  20   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  77  89  64  84  60 /  20  20   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  77  91  65  85  61 /  20  20   0   0   0
CALERA      76  90  65  85  61 /  10  30   0   0   0
AUBURN      74  91  67  86  61 /  10  40  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  77  93  67  88  63 /  10  50  10   0   0
TROY        76  94  66  88  61 /  10  60  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...CHILTON...
DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$

87/14







000
FXUS64 KBMX 271748 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS TO THE
AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
RIDGE HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD...AND EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK CAP AROUND 800MB WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AT BAY AGAIN TODAY. DO EXPECT A CU FIELD TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING...BUT UNFORTUNATELY IT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RELIEF TO
THE WARM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 70S WILL
MIX OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY LAYER ALOFT MIXES DOWN AND
WINDS GUST TO 15-17MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S...BUT WHETHER WE HIT HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105F WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH DEWPOINTS MIX OUT AND GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON JUST HOW MUCH
MIXING OCCURS. THE DRY LAYER ALOFT IS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
LOW LEVEL WINDS FOR MIXING ARE STRONGER. IF THIS MIXING RESULTS
IN DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

THIS IS THE FIRST INSTANCE OF WARM TEMPS AND HIGH HUMIDITY
THIS YEAR...SO WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW. IF
DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY FALL BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL
CONSIDER CANCELING THE HEAT ADVISORY. REGARDLESS...STAY HYDRATED
AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 18
KTS BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT
TOI WHERE MVFR VIS COULD OCCUR. GIVEN HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PERSISTENCE...THE VIS AT TOI MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH
THE NEXT FORECAST.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. NOT CONFIDENT ON JUST HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE OR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS MIGHT HOVER JUST ABOVE
MVFR CRITERIA...AND FOR NOW WILL CARRY ONLY VCSH. SKIES WILL CLEAR
THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION REFIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...EXPECT THAT BOUNDARY TO BE SOUTH OF ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA
TERMINALS BY THAT TIME. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO RAINFALL TIMING.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 651 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
AVERAGING 4-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MID 70S
DEWPOINTS PREVALENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE
COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 105
DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE
NEAR A TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND VERY
LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPARSE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA...AND WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT DOES RUN INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS ON A FASTER PACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE SEVERE THREAT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETER WILL BE THE PARCEL BUOYANCY WITH CAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/JG. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MINIMAL DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND UPPER SHEAR IS
ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SET RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES IN WHAT IS
TYPICALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL
ACTUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
UPPER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  74  91  63  83 /  10  30  20  10   0
ANNISTON    95  75  92  65  85 /  10  20  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  97  76  92  65  86 /  10  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  97  76  93  66  87 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      95  75  93  67  85 /  10  10  30  10   0
AUBURN      94  75  95  68  86 /  10  10  40  10   0
MONTGOMERY  97  76  97  68  90 /  10  10  50  20   0
TROY        96  75  97  67  88 /  10  10  60  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...CHILTON...
DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 271748 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS TO THE
AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
RIDGE HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD...AND EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK CAP AROUND 800MB WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AT BAY AGAIN TODAY. DO EXPECT A CU FIELD TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING...BUT UNFORTUNATELY IT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RELIEF TO
THE WARM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 70S WILL
MIX OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY LAYER ALOFT MIXES DOWN AND
WINDS GUST TO 15-17MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S...BUT WHETHER WE HIT HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105F WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH DEWPOINTS MIX OUT AND GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON JUST HOW MUCH
MIXING OCCURS. THE DRY LAYER ALOFT IS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
LOW LEVEL WINDS FOR MIXING ARE STRONGER. IF THIS MIXING RESULTS
IN DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

THIS IS THE FIRST INSTANCE OF WARM TEMPS AND HIGH HUMIDITY
THIS YEAR...SO WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW. IF
DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY FALL BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL
CONSIDER CANCELING THE HEAT ADVISORY. REGARDLESS...STAY HYDRATED
AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 18
KTS BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
LIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT
TOI WHERE MVFR VIS COULD OCCUR. GIVEN HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PERSISTENCE...THE VIS AT TOI MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH
THE NEXT FORECAST.

A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. NOT CONFIDENT ON JUST HOW LOW CIGS WILL BE OR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS MIGHT HOVER JUST ABOVE
MVFR CRITERIA...AND FOR NOW WILL CARRY ONLY VCSH. SKIES WILL CLEAR
THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION REFIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...EXPECT THAT BOUNDARY TO BE SOUTH OF ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA
TERMINALS BY THAT TIME. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO RAINFALL TIMING.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 651 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
AVERAGING 4-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MID 70S
DEWPOINTS PREVALENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE
COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 105
DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE
NEAR A TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND VERY
LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPARSE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA...AND WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT DOES RUN INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS ON A FASTER PACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE SEVERE THREAT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETER WILL BE THE PARCEL BUOYANCY WITH CAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/JG. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MINIMAL DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND UPPER SHEAR IS
ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SET RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES IN WHAT IS
TYPICALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL
ACTUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
UPPER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  74  91  63  83 /  10  30  20  10   0
ANNISTON    95  75  92  65  85 /  10  20  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  97  76  92  65  86 /  10  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  97  76  93  66  87 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      95  75  93  67  85 /  10  10  30  10   0
AUBURN      94  75  95  68  86 /  10  10  40  10   0
MONTGOMERY  97  76  97  68  90 /  10  10  50  20   0
TROY        96  75  97  67  88 /  10  10  60  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...CHILTON...
DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KBMX 271556 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1056 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS TO THE
AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
RIDGE HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD...AND EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK CAP AROUND 800MB WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AT BAY AGAIN TODAY. DO EXPECT A CU FIELD TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING...BUT UNFORTUNATELY IT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RELIEF TO
THE WARM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 70S WILL
MIX OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY LAYER ALOFT MIXES DOWN AND
WINDS GUST TO 15-17MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S...BUT WHETHER WE HIT HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105F WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH DEWPOINTS MIX OUT AND GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON JUST HOW MUCH
MIXING OCCURS. THE DRY LAYER ALOFT IS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
LOW LEVEL WINDS FOR MIXING ARE STRONGER. IF THIS MIXING RESULTS
IN DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

THIS IS THE FIRST INSTANCE OF WARM TEMPS AND HIGH HUMIDITY
THIS YEAR...SO WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW. IF
DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY FALL BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL
CONSIDER CANCELING THE HEAT ADVISORY. REGARDLESS...STAY HYDRATED
AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1O KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO 5 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW
TO MENTION AT NORTHERN TERMINALS ATTM.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 651 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
AVERAGING 4-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 105 DEGREES
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND VERY
LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPARSE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA...AND WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT DOES RUN INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS ON A FASTER PACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE SEVERE THREAT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETER WILL BE THE PARCEL BUOYANCY WITH CAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/JG. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MINIMAL DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND UPPER SHEAR IS
ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SET RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES IN WHAT IS
TYPICALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL
ACTUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
UPPER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  74  91  63  83 /  10  30  20  10   0
ANNISTON    95  75  92  65  85 /  10  20  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  97  76  92  65  86 /  10  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  97  76  93  66  87 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      95  75  93  67  85 /  10  10  30  10   0
AUBURN      94  75  95  68  86 /  10  10  40  10   0
MONTGOMERY  97  76  97  68  90 /  10  10  50  20   0
TROY        96  75  97  67  88 /  10  10  60  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...CHILTON...
DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 271556 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1056 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS TO THE
AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
RIDGE HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD...AND EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK CAP AROUND 800MB WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AT BAY AGAIN TODAY. DO EXPECT A CU FIELD TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING...BUT UNFORTUNATELY IT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RELIEF TO
THE WARM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 70S WILL
MIX OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY LAYER ALOFT MIXES DOWN AND
WINDS GUST TO 15-17MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S...BUT WHETHER WE HIT HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105F WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH DEWPOINTS MIX OUT AND GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON JUST HOW MUCH
MIXING OCCURS. THE DRY LAYER ALOFT IS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
LOW LEVEL WINDS FOR MIXING ARE STRONGER. IF THIS MIXING RESULTS
IN DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

THIS IS THE FIRST INSTANCE OF WARM TEMPS AND HIGH HUMIDITY
THIS YEAR...SO WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW. IF
DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY FALL BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL
CONSIDER CANCELING THE HEAT ADVISORY. REGARDLESS...STAY HYDRATED
AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1O KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO 5 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW
TO MENTION AT NORTHERN TERMINALS ATTM.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 651 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
AVERAGING 4-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 105 DEGREES
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND VERY
LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPARSE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA...AND WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT DOES RUN INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS ON A FASTER PACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE SEVERE THREAT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETER WILL BE THE PARCEL BUOYANCY WITH CAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/JG. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MINIMAL DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND UPPER SHEAR IS
ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SET RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES IN WHAT IS
TYPICALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL
ACTUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
UPPER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     94  74  91  63  83 /  10  30  20  10   0
ANNISTON    95  75  92  65  85 /  10  20  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  97  76  92  65  86 /  10  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  97  76  93  66  87 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      95  75  93  67  85 /  10  10  30  10   0
AUBURN      94  75  95  68  86 /  10  10  40  10   0
MONTGOMERY  97  76  97  68  90 /  10  10  50  20   0
TROY        96  75  97  67  88 /  10  10  60  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...CHILTON...
DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...MARENGO...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 271151
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
AVERAGING 4-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 105 DEGREES
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND VERY
LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPARSE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA...AND WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT DOES RUN INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS ON A FASTER PACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE SEVERE THREAT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETER WILL BE THE PARCEL BUOYANCY WITH CAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/JG. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MINIMAL DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND UPPER SHEAR IS
ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SET RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES IN WHAT IS
TYPICALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL
ACTUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
UPPER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1O KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO 5 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW
TO MENTION AT NORTHERN TERMINALS ATTM.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  74  91  63  83 /  10  30  20  10   0
ANNISTON    95  75  92  65  85 /  10  20  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  97  76  92  65  86 /  10  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  98  76  93  66  87 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      96  75  93  67  85 /  10  10  30  10   0
AUBURN      96  75  95  68  86 /  10  10  40  10   0
MONTGOMERY  98  76  97  68  90 /  10  10  50  20   0
TROY        98  75  97  67  88 /  10  10  60  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...
CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...
MARENGO...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...
TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 271151
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
AVERAGING 4-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 105 DEGREES
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND VERY
LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPARSE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA...AND WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT DOES RUN INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS ON A FASTER PACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE SEVERE THREAT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETER WILL BE THE PARCEL BUOYANCY WITH CAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/JG. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MINIMAL DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND UPPER SHEAR IS
ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SET RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES IN WHAT IS
TYPICALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL
ACTUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
UPPER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1O KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO 5 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW
TO MENTION AT NORTHERN TERMINALS ATTM.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  74  91  63  83 /  10  30  20  10   0
ANNISTON    95  75  92  65  85 /  10  20  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  97  76  92  65  86 /  10  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  98  76  93  66  87 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      96  75  93  67  85 /  10  10  30  10   0
AUBURN      96  75  95  68  86 /  10  10  40  10   0
MONTGOMERY  98  76  97  68  90 /  10  10  50  20   0
TROY        98  75  97  67  88 /  10  10  60  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...
CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...
MARENGO...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...
TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 270842
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
AVERAGING 4-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 105 DEGREES
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND VERY
LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPARSE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA...AND WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT DOES RUN INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS ON A FASTER PACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE SEVERE THREAT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETER WILL BE THE PARCEL BUOYANCY WITH CAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/JG. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MINIMAL DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND UPPER SHEAR IS
ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SET RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES IN WHAT IS
TYPICALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL
ACTUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
UPPER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
THE LACK OF FOG TONIGHT IS SLIGHTLY ERODED LOOKING AT LATE EVENING
OBSERVATIONS. STILL...VERY LITTLE IN GUIDANCE TO INDICATE ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG CONCERNS...LIMITED LIFT, COOLING.  BUT WHATEVER
MOISTURE WAS MIXED OUT TODAY IS NOW CONTAINED IN A RATHER SHALLOW
LAYER...AND WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING DEWPOINT IN MANY
LOCATIONS...DECIDED TO SUGGEST SOME VFR FOG AT A FEW MORE TAF
SITES...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBILITY STILL RESTRICTED TO TOI.

OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM OHIO VALLEY MCS WILL BRUSH BY
NORTHERN SITES OVERNIGHT. INCREASING GENERALLY W WINDS TOMORROW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DEEPENING TROUGH FOR UNUSUAL
SUMMER SYNOPTIC BREEZES.

JD/02


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  74  91  63  83 /  10  30  20  10   0
ANNISTON    95  75  92  65  85 /  10  20  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  97  76  92  65  86 /  10  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  98  76  93  66  87 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      96  75  93  67  85 /  10  10  30  10   0
AUBURN      96  75  95  68  86 /  10  10  40  10   0
MONTGOMERY  98  76  97  68  90 /  10  10  50  20   0
TROY        98  75  97  67  88 /  10  10  60  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...
CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...
MARENGO...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...
TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 270842
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
AVERAGING 4-6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE COMBINATION
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 105 DEGREES
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM LINE BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WITH THE FRONT...AND VERY
LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPARSE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH
ALABAMA...AND WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT DOES RUN INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS ON A FASTER PACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE SEVERE THREAT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETER WILL BE THE PARCEL BUOYANCY WITH CAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 3500-4000 J/JG. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MINIMAL DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND UPPER SHEAR IS
ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SET RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES IN WHAT IS
TYPICALLY THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROF WILL
ACTUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
UPPER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
THE LACK OF FOG TONIGHT IS SLIGHTLY ERODED LOOKING AT LATE EVENING
OBSERVATIONS. STILL...VERY LITTLE IN GUIDANCE TO INDICATE ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG CONCERNS...LIMITED LIFT, COOLING.  BUT WHATEVER
MOISTURE WAS MIXED OUT TODAY IS NOW CONTAINED IN A RATHER SHALLOW
LAYER...AND WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING DEWPOINT IN MANY
LOCATIONS...DECIDED TO SUGGEST SOME VFR FOG AT A FEW MORE TAF
SITES...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBILITY STILL RESTRICTED TO TOI.

OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM OHIO VALLEY MCS WILL BRUSH BY
NORTHERN SITES OVERNIGHT. INCREASING GENERALLY W WINDS TOMORROW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DEEPENING TROUGH FOR UNUSUAL
SUMMER SYNOPTIC BREEZES.

JD/02


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  74  91  63  83 /  10  30  20  10   0
ANNISTON    95  75  92  65  85 /  10  20  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  97  76  92  65  86 /  10  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  98  76  93  66  87 /  10  20  20  10   0
CALERA      96  75  93  67  85 /  10  10  30  10   0
AUBURN      96  75  95  68  86 /  10  10  40  10   0
MONTGOMERY  98  76  97  68  90 /  10  10  50  20   0
TROY        98  75  97  67  88 /  10  10  60  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...
CHILTON...DALLAS...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...LAMAR...LOWNDES...
MARENGO...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...SUMTER...
TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 270519
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1219 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE DEW POINTS RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT OR THE LACK THEREOF.
WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED LOWS BY ABOUT A DEGREE AND THIS WILL PUT
MOST PLACES NEAR THE SURFACE SATURATION BUT MOST PLACES STAY FAR
FROM THE CROSSOVER TEMP. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG BUT
CONFIDENCE FOR DENSE FOG IS A BIT LACKING ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ESPECIALLY NEAR WATER BODIES.

OTHERWISE...ALL FACETS OF FORECAST ARE ON TARGET. UPDATES OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
THE LACK OF FOG TONIGHT IS SLIGHTLY ERODED LOOKING AT LATE EVENING
OBSERVATIONS. STILL...VERY LITTLE IN GUIDANCE TO INDICATE ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG CONCERNS...LIMITED LIFT, COOLING.  BUT WHATEVER
MOISTURE WAS MIXED OUT TODAY IS NOW CONTAINED IN A RATHER SHALLOW
LAYER...AND WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING DEWPOINT IN MANY
LOCATIONS...DECIDED TO SUGGEST SOME VFR FOG AT A FEW MORE TAF
SITES...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBILITY STILL RESTRICTED TO TOI.

OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM OHIO VALLEY MCS WILL BRUSH BY
NORTHERN SITES OVERNIGHT. INCREASING GENERALLY W WINDS TOMORROW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DEEPENING TROUGH FOR UNUSUAL
SUMMER SYNOPTIC BREEZES.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  95  74  88  63 /   0  10  30  20  10
ANNISTON    70  94  75  88  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  71  95  76  90  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  96  76  91  66 /   0  10  20  40  10
CALERA      71  95  75  90  67 /   0  10  20  40  10
AUBURN      71  94  75  91  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
MONTGOMERY  73  96  76  93  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
TROY        72  95  75  93  67 /   0  10  10  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 270519
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1219 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE DEW POINTS RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT OR THE LACK THEREOF.
WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED LOWS BY ABOUT A DEGREE AND THIS WILL PUT
MOST PLACES NEAR THE SURFACE SATURATION BUT MOST PLACES STAY FAR
FROM THE CROSSOVER TEMP. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG BUT
CONFIDENCE FOR DENSE FOG IS A BIT LACKING ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ESPECIALLY NEAR WATER BODIES.

OTHERWISE...ALL FACETS OF FORECAST ARE ON TARGET. UPDATES OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
THE LACK OF FOG TONIGHT IS SLIGHTLY ERODED LOOKING AT LATE EVENING
OBSERVATIONS. STILL...VERY LITTLE IN GUIDANCE TO INDICATE ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG CONCERNS...LIMITED LIFT, COOLING.  BUT WHATEVER
MOISTURE WAS MIXED OUT TODAY IS NOW CONTAINED IN A RATHER SHALLOW
LAYER...AND WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING DEWPOINT IN MANY
LOCATIONS...DECIDED TO SUGGEST SOME VFR FOG AT A FEW MORE TAF
SITES...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBILITY STILL RESTRICTED TO TOI.

OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM OHIO VALLEY MCS WILL BRUSH BY
NORTHERN SITES OVERNIGHT. INCREASING GENERALLY W WINDS TOMORROW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DEEPENING TROUGH FOR UNUSUAL
SUMMER SYNOPTIC BREEZES.

JD/02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  95  74  88  63 /   0  10  30  20  10
ANNISTON    70  94  75  88  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  71  95  76  90  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  96  76  91  66 /   0  10  20  40  10
CALERA      71  95  75  90  67 /   0  10  20  40  10
AUBURN      71  94  75  91  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
MONTGOMERY  73  96  76  93  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
TROY        72  95  75  93  67 /   0  10  10  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 270333
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1033 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE DEW POINTS RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT OR THE LACK THEREOF.
WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED LOWS BY ABOUT A DEGREE AND THIS WILL PUT
MOST PLACES NEAR THE SURFACE SATURATION BUT MOST PLACES STAY FAR
FROM THE CROSSOVER TEMP. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG BUT
CONFIDENCE FOR DENSE FOG IS A BIT LACKING ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ESPECIALLY NEAR WATER BODIES.

OTHERWISE...ALL FACETS OF FORECAST ARE ON TARGET. UPDATES OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

REMARKABLY CHANGEABLE/DYNAMIC WEATHER FOR MIDSUMMER...WITH LITTLE
EFFECT ON AVIATION FOR NOW. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIG WX GOES WELL BEYOND CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

ONE OF THE BENEFITS OF THE CHANGE IS THE DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAS
FINALLY PUSHED TO SOUTH ALABAMA. AS A RESULT...LACK OF MOISTURE
APPEARS TO RESTRICT OVERNIGHT FOG/LOW CLOUD CHANCES TO EXTREME
SOUTH ALABAMA...PERHAPS NOT EVEN AFFECTING TOI. STILL WILL HEDGE A
LITTLE DUE TO PROXIMITY OF MOISTURE...AND GO FOR A TEMPO 4SM BR
PERIOD AT TOI.

OTHERWISE...MAIN INDICATION OF CHANGING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS
WILL BE INCREASING WSW WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTAINED WITHIN AN OVERALL DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TOP OUT WINDS AT 12KTS AT BHM
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY...AND THAT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
THERE...AND OTHER TAF SITES AS WELL.

JD/02


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

THE RADAR IS ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...A RESULT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ABOVE 850MB. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH SOME DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S. A MOISTURE
GRADIENT IS EVIDENT BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF BIRMINGHAM WHERE
CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE A BIT TRICKY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTRIBUTES TO POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. LOWS OF
67-70F SEEM REASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE DRIER HAS MIXED
DOWN...WITH WARMER READINGS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE 1-2F COMPARED TO TODAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS CAUSE SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WITH 850MB TEMPS
OF 20-22C RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 93-97F RANGE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR 2-4F TOO WARM...MUCH LIKE ON OTHER
OCCASIONS THIS SUMMER. WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS OF 592-593DM AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE
INDICATIVE OF A WARM COLUMN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB.

AS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON MONDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRIVE A FRONT SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. REGARDING RAINFALL...THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY
GET SKIPPED AS THE FRONT SLIPS BY ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PEAK
HEATING OCCURS. KEPT LOW POPS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT IN
CASE SOMETHING DEVELOPS...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...
AS 500MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS CONTRIBUTE TO UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND
GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND RAIN CHANCES
MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  95  74  88  63 /   0  10  30  20  10
ANNISTON    70  94  75  88  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  71  95  76  90  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  96  76  91  66 /   0  10  20  40  10
CALERA      71  95  75  90  67 /   0  10  20  40  10
AUBURN      71  94  75  91  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
MONTGOMERY  73  96  76  93  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
TROY        72  95  75  93  67 /   0  10  10  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 270333
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1033 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE DEW POINTS RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT OR THE LACK THEREOF.
WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED LOWS BY ABOUT A DEGREE AND THIS WILL PUT
MOST PLACES NEAR THE SURFACE SATURATION BUT MOST PLACES STAY FAR
FROM THE CROSSOVER TEMP. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG BUT
CONFIDENCE FOR DENSE FOG IS A BIT LACKING ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ESPECIALLY NEAR WATER BODIES.

OTHERWISE...ALL FACETS OF FORECAST ARE ON TARGET. UPDATES OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

REMARKABLY CHANGEABLE/DYNAMIC WEATHER FOR MIDSUMMER...WITH LITTLE
EFFECT ON AVIATION FOR NOW. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIG WX GOES WELL BEYOND CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

ONE OF THE BENEFITS OF THE CHANGE IS THE DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAS
FINALLY PUSHED TO SOUTH ALABAMA. AS A RESULT...LACK OF MOISTURE
APPEARS TO RESTRICT OVERNIGHT FOG/LOW CLOUD CHANCES TO EXTREME
SOUTH ALABAMA...PERHAPS NOT EVEN AFFECTING TOI. STILL WILL HEDGE A
LITTLE DUE TO PROXIMITY OF MOISTURE...AND GO FOR A TEMPO 4SM BR
PERIOD AT TOI.

OTHERWISE...MAIN INDICATION OF CHANGING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS
WILL BE INCREASING WSW WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTAINED WITHIN AN OVERALL DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TOP OUT WINDS AT 12KTS AT BHM
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY...AND THAT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
THERE...AND OTHER TAF SITES AS WELL.

JD/02


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

THE RADAR IS ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...A RESULT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ABOVE 850MB. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH SOME DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S. A MOISTURE
GRADIENT IS EVIDENT BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF BIRMINGHAM WHERE
CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE A BIT TRICKY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTRIBUTES TO POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. LOWS OF
67-70F SEEM REASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE DRIER HAS MIXED
DOWN...WITH WARMER READINGS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE 1-2F COMPARED TO TODAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS CAUSE SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WITH 850MB TEMPS
OF 20-22C RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 93-97F RANGE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR 2-4F TOO WARM...MUCH LIKE ON OTHER
OCCASIONS THIS SUMMER. WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS OF 592-593DM AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE
INDICATIVE OF A WARM COLUMN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB.

AS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON MONDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRIVE A FRONT SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. REGARDING RAINFALL...THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY
GET SKIPPED AS THE FRONT SLIPS BY ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PEAK
HEATING OCCURS. KEPT LOW POPS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT IN
CASE SOMETHING DEVELOPS...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...
AS 500MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS CONTRIBUTE TO UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND
GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND RAIN CHANCES
MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  95  74  88  63 /   0  10  30  20  10
ANNISTON    70  94  75  88  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  71  95  76  90  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  96  76  91  66 /   0  10  20  40  10
CALERA      71  95  75  90  67 /   0  10  20  40  10
AUBURN      71  94  75  91  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
MONTGOMERY  73  96  76  93  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
TROY        72  95  75  93  67 /   0  10  10  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 262351
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

REMARKABLY CHANGEABLE/DYNAMIC WEATHER FOR MIDSUMMER...WITH LITTLE
EFFECT ON AVIATION FOR NOW. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIG WX GOES WELL BEYOND CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

ONE OF THE BENEFITS OF THE CHANGE IS THE DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAS
FINALLY PUSHED TO SOUTH ALABAMA. AS A RESULT...LACK OF MOISTURE
APPEARS TO RESTRICT OVERNIGHT FOG/LOW CLOUD CHANCES TO EXTREME
SOUTH ALABAMA...PERHAPS NOT EVEN AFFECTING TOI. STILL WILL HEDGE A
LITTLE DUE TO PROXIMITY OF MOISTURE...AND GO FOR A TEMPO 4SM BR
PERIOD AT TOI.

OTHERWISE...MAIN INDICATION OF CHANGING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS
WILL BE INCREASING WSW WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTAINED WITHIN AN OVERALL DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TOP OUT WINDS AT 12KTS AT BHM
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY...AND THAT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
THERE...AND OTHER TAF SITES AS WELL.

JD/02

&&

.CLIMATE...

ANOTHER LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. COULD
WE SEE MORE RECORD LOWS BROKEN THIS MONTH? IT`S DEFINITELY
POSSIBLE. FORECAST LOWS WEDNESDAY (JULY 30TH) MORNING ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW RECORD VALUES.

LOCATION     FORECAST LOW   RECORD LOW TEMP
----------   ------------   ---------------
BIRMINGHAM        60          61 (1994)
MONTGOMERY        63          66 (1889)
TUSCALOOSA        61          67 (1954, 1960, 1965, 1969)
ANNISTON          59          61 (1903)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

THE RADAR IS ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...A RESULT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ABOVE 850MB. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH SOME DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S. A MOISTURE
GRADIENT IS EVIDENT BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF BIRMINGHAM WHERE
CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE A BIT TRICKY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTRIBUTES TO POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. LOWS OF
67-70F SEEM REASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE DRIER HAS MIXED
DOWN...WITH WARMER READINGS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE 1-2F COMPARED TO TODAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS CAUSE SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WITH 850MB TEMPS
OF 20-22C RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 93-97F RANGE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR 2-4F TOO WARM...MUCH LIKE ON OTHER
OCCASIONS THIS SUMMER. WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS OF 592-593DM AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE
INDICATIVE OF A WARM COLUMN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB.

AS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON MONDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRIVE A FRONT SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. REGARDING RAINFALL...THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY
GET SKIPPED AS THE FRONT SLIPS BY ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PEAK
HEATING OCCURS. KEPT LOW POPS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT IN
CASE SOMETHING DEVELOPS...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...
AS 500MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS CONTRIBUTE TO UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND
GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND RAIN CHANCES
MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  95  74  88  63 /   0  10  30  20  10
ANNISTON    70  94  75  88  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  95  76  90  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  96  76  91  66 /   0  10  20  40  10
CALERA      71  95  75  90  67 /   0  10  20  40  10
AUBURN      71  94  75  91  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
MONTGOMERY  73  96  76  93  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
TROY        72  95  75  93  67 /   0  10  10  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 262351
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
651 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

REMARKABLY CHANGEABLE/DYNAMIC WEATHER FOR MIDSUMMER...WITH LITTLE
EFFECT ON AVIATION FOR NOW. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIG WX GOES WELL BEYOND CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

ONE OF THE BENEFITS OF THE CHANGE IS THE DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAS
FINALLY PUSHED TO SOUTH ALABAMA. AS A RESULT...LACK OF MOISTURE
APPEARS TO RESTRICT OVERNIGHT FOG/LOW CLOUD CHANCES TO EXTREME
SOUTH ALABAMA...PERHAPS NOT EVEN AFFECTING TOI. STILL WILL HEDGE A
LITTLE DUE TO PROXIMITY OF MOISTURE...AND GO FOR A TEMPO 4SM BR
PERIOD AT TOI.

OTHERWISE...MAIN INDICATION OF CHANGING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS
WILL BE INCREASING WSW WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTAINED WITHIN AN OVERALL DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TOP OUT WINDS AT 12KTS AT BHM
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY...AND THAT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
THERE...AND OTHER TAF SITES AS WELL.

JD/02

&&

.CLIMATE...

ANOTHER LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. COULD
WE SEE MORE RECORD LOWS BROKEN THIS MONTH? IT`S DEFINITELY
POSSIBLE. FORECAST LOWS WEDNESDAY (JULY 30TH) MORNING ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW RECORD VALUES.

LOCATION     FORECAST LOW   RECORD LOW TEMP
----------   ------------   ---------------
BIRMINGHAM        60          61 (1994)
MONTGOMERY        63          66 (1889)
TUSCALOOSA        61          67 (1954, 1960, 1965, 1969)
ANNISTON          59          61 (1903)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

THE RADAR IS ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...A RESULT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ABOVE 850MB. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH SOME DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S. A MOISTURE
GRADIENT IS EVIDENT BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF BIRMINGHAM WHERE
CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE A BIT TRICKY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTRIBUTES TO POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. LOWS OF
67-70F SEEM REASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE DRIER HAS MIXED
DOWN...WITH WARMER READINGS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE 1-2F COMPARED TO TODAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS CAUSE SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WITH 850MB TEMPS
OF 20-22C RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 93-97F RANGE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR 2-4F TOO WARM...MUCH LIKE ON OTHER
OCCASIONS THIS SUMMER. WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS OF 592-593DM AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE
INDICATIVE OF A WARM COLUMN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB.

AS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON MONDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRIVE A FRONT SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. REGARDING RAINFALL...THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY
GET SKIPPED AS THE FRONT SLIPS BY ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PEAK
HEATING OCCURS. KEPT LOW POPS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT IN
CASE SOMETHING DEVELOPS...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...
AS 500MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS CONTRIBUTE TO UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND
GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND RAIN CHANCES
MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  95  74  88  63 /   0  10  30  20  10
ANNISTON    70  94  75  88  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  95  76  90  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  96  76  91  66 /   0  10  20  40  10
CALERA      71  95  75  90  67 /   0  10  20  40  10
AUBURN      71  94  75  91  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
MONTGOMERY  73  96  76  93  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
TROY        72  95  75  93  67 /   0  10  10  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 262039
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
339 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE RADAR IS ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...A RESULT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ABOVE 850MB. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH SOME DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S. A MOISTURE
GRADIENT IS EVIDENT BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF BIRMINGHAM WHERE
CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE A BIT TRICKY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTRIBUTES TO POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. LOWS OF
67-70F SEEM REASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE DRIER HAS MIXED
DOWN...WITH WARMER READINGS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE 1-2F COMPARED TO TODAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS CAUSE SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WITH 850MB TEMPS
OF 20-22C RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 93-97F RANGE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR 2-4F TOO WARM...MUCH LIKE ON OTHER
OCCASIONS THIS SUMMER. WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS OF 592-593DM AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE
INDICATIVE OF A WARM COLUMN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB.

AS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON MONDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRIVE A FRONT SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. REGARDING RAINFALL...THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY
GET SKIPPED AS THE FRONT SLIPS BY ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PEAK
HEATING OCCURS. KEPT LOW POPS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT IN
CASE SOMETHING DEVELOPS...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...
AS 500MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS CONTRIBUTE TO UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND
GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND RAIN CHANCES
MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GREATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL SEE ADDITIONAL DRYING AT LOW
LEVELS TODAY AND ONLY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT FOG AT TOI
TONIGHT WITH MVFR VIS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH WESTERLY WINDS AT 6-10 KTS TODAY...DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

14

&&

.CLIMATE...

ANOTHER LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. COULD
WE SEE MORE RECORD LOWS BROKEN THIS MONTH? IT`S DEFINITELY
POSSIBLE. FORECAST LOWS WEDNESDAY (JULY 30TH) MORNING ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW RECORD VALUES.

LOCATION     FORECAST LOW   RECORD LOW TEMP
----------   ------------   ---------------
BIRMINGHAM        60          61 (1994)
MONTGOMERY        63          66 (1889)
TUSCALOOSA        61          67 (1954, 1960, 1965, 1969)
ANNISTON          59          61 (1903)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  95  74  88  63 /   0  10  30  20  10
ANNISTON    70  94  75  88  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  95  76  90  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  96  76  91  66 /   0  10  20  40  10
CALERA      71  95  75  90  67 /   0  10  20  40  10
AUBURN      71  94  75  91  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
MONTGOMERY  73  96  76  93  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
TROY        72  95  75  93  67 /   0  10  10  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/14






000
FXUS64 KBMX 262039
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
339 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE RADAR IS ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...A RESULT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ABOVE 850MB. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WITH SOME DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S. A MOISTURE
GRADIENT IS EVIDENT BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF BIRMINGHAM WHERE
CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE A BIT TRICKY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTRIBUTES TO POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. LOWS OF
67-70F SEEM REASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE DRIER HAS MIXED
DOWN...WITH WARMER READINGS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE 1-2F COMPARED TO TODAY AS WESTERLY
BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS CAUSE SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WITH 850MB TEMPS
OF 20-22C RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 93-97F RANGE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO APPEAR 2-4F TOO WARM...MUCH LIKE ON OTHER
OCCASIONS THIS SUMMER. WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS OF 592-593DM AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE
INDICATIVE OF A WARM COLUMN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB.

AS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON MONDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DRIVE A FRONT SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. REGARDING RAINFALL...THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY
GET SKIPPED AS THE FRONT SLIPS BY ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PEAK
HEATING OCCURS. KEPT LOW POPS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT IN
CASE SOMETHING DEVELOPS...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20 MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...
AS 500MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS CONTRIBUTE TO UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND
GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO MOISTEN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND RAIN CHANCES
MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GREATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL SEE ADDITIONAL DRYING AT LOW
LEVELS TODAY AND ONLY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT FOG AT TOI
TONIGHT WITH MVFR VIS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH WESTERLY WINDS AT 6-10 KTS TODAY...DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

14

&&

.CLIMATE...

ANOTHER LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. COULD
WE SEE MORE RECORD LOWS BROKEN THIS MONTH? IT`S DEFINITELY
POSSIBLE. FORECAST LOWS WEDNESDAY (JULY 30TH) MORNING ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW RECORD VALUES.

LOCATION     FORECAST LOW   RECORD LOW TEMP
----------   ------------   ---------------
BIRMINGHAM        60          61 (1994)
MONTGOMERY        63          66 (1889)
TUSCALOOSA        61          67 (1954, 1960, 1965, 1969)
ANNISTON          59          61 (1903)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  95  74  88  63 /   0  10  30  20  10
ANNISTON    70  94  75  88  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  95  76  90  65 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  96  76  91  66 /   0  10  20  40  10
CALERA      71  95  75  90  67 /   0  10  20  40  10
AUBURN      71  94  75  91  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
MONTGOMERY  73  96  76  93  68 /   0  10  10  60  20
TROY        72  95  75  93  67 /   0  10  10  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/14







000
FXUS64 KBMX 261732 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1231 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING DIVIDES CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S TO THE SOUTH AND THE 60S TO THE NORTH. ALSO SEEING A CU
FIELD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. DEWPOINT GRADIENT
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AND NOT BE MUCH OF PLAYER IN TODAYS
WEATHER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD TODAY...WITH HEIGHTS
INCREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW BOUNDARIES NOTED THIS
MORNING ON RADAR AND SATELLITE...PUSHING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT RIDGING ALOFT AND A DECENT CAP AT 700MB TO
SUPPRESS MOST IF NOT ALL AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY. WILL LEAVE A
10 POP SOUTH OF I-85 GIVEN THE ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARIES THIS MORNING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DEVELOPMENT.

LOWERED CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WERE RUNNING ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT SHOULD MATCH UP WELL WITH LESS
CLOUDS.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GREATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL SEE ADDITIONAL DRYING AT LOW
LEVELS TODAY AND ONLY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT FOG AT TOI
TONIGHT WITH MVFR VIS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH WESTERLY WINDS AT 6-10 KTS TODAY...DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INTENSIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS WEEKEND AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES EXPANDS EASTWARD. A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT CUTS ALABAMA IN
HALF THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
BY SUNDAY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH EVEN WARMER AIR. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB
TO NEAR 105 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NECESSARY IN LATER FORECASTS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
REACHING THE 105 DEGREE MARK. THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A COLD FRONT THIS TIME OF YEAR
CAN BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS NORTH ALABAMA MONDAY
MORNING...BUT INCREASING CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
ENCOUNTERS VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH VALUES LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. CAPE
VALUES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST
CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 3500-4500 J/KG RANGE. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ALSO MENTIONED SOUTH ALABAMA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO ON
MONDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN FASTER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY SUNSET MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A -3
STANDARD DEVIATION FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 3 OR GREATER ARE CONSIDERED
RECORD BREAKING EVENTS. BASED ON THE RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW...WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OR
JUST BELOW RECORD VALUES.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     91  72  95  73  91 /   0  10  10  30  40
ANNISTON    93  73  96  75  88 /   0  10  10  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  95  74  98  75  94 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      93  74  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      92  73  95  73  93 /  10  10  10  10  50
MONTGOMERY  95  75  98  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  50
TROY        94  73  97  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 261611 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1111 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING DIVIDES CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S TO THE SOUTH AND THE 60S TO THE NORTH. ALSO SEEING A CU
FIELD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. DEWPOINT GRADIENT
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AND NOT BE MUCH OF PLAYER IN TODAYS
WEATHER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD TODAY...WITH HEIGHTS
INCREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW BOUNDARIES NOTED THIS
MORNING ON RADAR AND SATELLITE...PUSHING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT RIDGING ALOFT AND A DECENT CAP AT 700MB TO
SUPPRESS MOST IF NOT ALL AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY. WILL LEAVE A
10 POP SOUTH OF I-85 GIVEN THE ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARIES THIS MORNING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DEVELOPMENT.

LOWERED CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WERE RUNNING ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT SHOULD MATCH UP WELL WITH LESS
CLOUDS.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY AT
MGM/TOI IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE
DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INTENSIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS WEEKEND AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES EXPANDS EASTWARD. A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT CUTS ALABAMA IN
HALF THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
BY SUNDAY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH EVEN WARMER AIR. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB
TO NEAR 105 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NECESSARY IN LATER FORECASTS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
REACHING THE 105 DEGREE MARK. THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A COLD FRONT THIS TIME OF YEAR
CAN BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS NORTH ALABAMA MONDAY
MORNING...BUT INCREASING CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
ENCOUNTERS VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH VALUES LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. CAPE
VALUES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST
CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 3500-4500 J/KG RANGE. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ALSO MENTIONED SOUTH ALABAMA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO ON
MONDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN FASTER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY SUNSET MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A -3
STANDARD DEVIATION FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 3 OR GREATER ARE CONSIDERED
RECORD BREAKING EVENTS. BASED ON THE RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW...WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OR
JUST BELOW RECORD VALUES.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     91  72  95  73  91 /   0  10  10  30  40
ANNISTON    93  73  96  75  88 /   0  10  10  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  95  74  98  75  94 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      93  74  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      92  73  95  73  93 /  10  10  10  10  50
MONTGOMERY  95  75  98  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  50
TROY        94  73  97  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 261611 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1111 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING DIVIDES CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S TO THE SOUTH AND THE 60S TO THE NORTH. ALSO SEEING A CU
FIELD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. DEWPOINT GRADIENT
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AND NOT BE MUCH OF PLAYER IN TODAYS
WEATHER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD TODAY...WITH HEIGHTS
INCREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW BOUNDARIES NOTED THIS
MORNING ON RADAR AND SATELLITE...PUSHING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ALABAMA. EXPECT RIDGING ALOFT AND A DECENT CAP AT 700MB TO
SUPPRESS MOST IF NOT ALL AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY. WILL LEAVE A
10 POP SOUTH OF I-85 GIVEN THE ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARIES THIS MORNING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DEVELOPMENT.

LOWERED CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WERE RUNNING ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT SHOULD MATCH UP WELL WITH LESS
CLOUDS.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY AT
MGM/TOI IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE
DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INTENSIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS WEEKEND AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES EXPANDS EASTWARD. A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT CUTS ALABAMA IN
HALF THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
BY SUNDAY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH EVEN WARMER AIR. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB
TO NEAR 105 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NECESSARY IN LATER FORECASTS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
REACHING THE 105 DEGREE MARK. THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A COLD FRONT THIS TIME OF YEAR
CAN BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS NORTH ALABAMA MONDAY
MORNING...BUT INCREASING CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
ENCOUNTERS VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH VALUES LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. CAPE
VALUES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST
CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 3500-4500 J/KG RANGE. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ALSO MENTIONED SOUTH ALABAMA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO ON
MONDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN FASTER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY SUNSET MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A -3
STANDARD DEVIATION FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 3 OR GREATER ARE CONSIDERED
RECORD BREAKING EVENTS. BASED ON THE RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW...WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OR
JUST BELOW RECORD VALUES.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     91  72  95  73  91 /   0  10  10  30  40
ANNISTON    93  73  96  75  88 /   0  10  10  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  95  74  98  75  94 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      93  74  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      92  73  95  73  93 /  10  10  10  10  50
MONTGOMERY  95  75  98  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  50
TROY        94  73  97  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 261146
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
646 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INTENSIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS WEEKEND AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES EXPANDS EASTWARD. A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT CUTS ALABAMA IN
HALF THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
BY SUNDAY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH EVEN WARMER AIR. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB
TO NEAR 105 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NECESSARY IN LATER FORECASTS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
REACHING THE 105 DEGREE MARK. THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A COLD FRONT THIS TIME OF YEAR
CAN BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS NORTH ALABAMA MONDAY
MORNING...BUT INCREASING CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
ENCOUNTERS VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH VALUES LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. CAPE
VALUES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST
CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 3500-4500 J/KG RANGE. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ALSO MENTIONED SOUTH ALABAMA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO ON
MONDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN FASTER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY SUNSET MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A -3
STANDARD DEVIATION FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 3 OR GREATER ARE CONSIDERED
RECORD BREAKING EVENTS. BASED ON THE RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW...WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OR
JUST BELOW RECORD VALUES.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY AT
MGM/TOI IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE
DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

19

&&

.CLIMATE...

ANOTHER LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. COULD WE
SEE MORE RECORD LOWS BROKEN THIS MONTH? IT`S DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.
FORECAST LOWS WEDNESDAY (JULY 30TH) MORNING ARE CURRENTLY NEAR
RECORD VALUES. HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JULY
30TH...

LOCATION        RECORD LOW TEMP
----------      ---------------
BIRMINGHAM         61 (1994)
MONTGOMERY         66 (1889)
TUSCALOOSA         67 (1954, 1960, 1965, 1969)
ANNISTON           61 (1903)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     91  72  95  73  91 /   0  10  10  30  40
ANNISTON    93  73  96  75  88 /   0  10  10  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  95  74  98  75  94 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      93  74  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      92  73  95  73  93 /  10  10  10  10  50
MONTGOMERY  95  75  98  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  50
TROY        94  73  97  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 261146
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
646 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INTENSIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS WEEKEND AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES EXPANDS EASTWARD. A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT CUTS ALABAMA IN
HALF THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
BY SUNDAY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH EVEN WARMER AIR. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB
TO NEAR 105 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NECESSARY IN LATER FORECASTS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
REACHING THE 105 DEGREE MARK. THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A COLD FRONT THIS TIME OF YEAR
CAN BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS NORTH ALABAMA MONDAY
MORNING...BUT INCREASING CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
ENCOUNTERS VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH VALUES LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. CAPE
VALUES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST
CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 3500-4500 J/KG RANGE. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ALSO MENTIONED SOUTH ALABAMA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO ON
MONDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN FASTER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY SUNSET MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A -3
STANDARD DEVIATION FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 3 OR GREATER ARE CONSIDERED
RECORD BREAKING EVENTS. BASED ON THE RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW...WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OR
JUST BELOW RECORD VALUES.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY AT
MGM/TOI IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE
DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

19

&&

.CLIMATE...

ANOTHER LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. COULD WE
SEE MORE RECORD LOWS BROKEN THIS MONTH? IT`S DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.
FORECAST LOWS WEDNESDAY (JULY 30TH) MORNING ARE CURRENTLY NEAR
RECORD VALUES. HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JULY
30TH...

LOCATION        RECORD LOW TEMP
----------      ---------------
BIRMINGHAM         61 (1994)
MONTGOMERY         66 (1889)
TUSCALOOSA         67 (1954, 1960, 1965, 1969)
ANNISTON           61 (1903)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     91  72  95  73  91 /   0  10  10  30  40
ANNISTON    93  73  96  75  88 /   0  10  10  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  95  74  98  75  94 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      93  74  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      92  73  95  73  93 /  10  10  10  10  50
MONTGOMERY  95  75  98  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  50
TROY        94  73  97  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 260827
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
327 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INTENSIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS WEEKEND AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES EXPANDS EASTWARD. A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT CUTS ALABAMA IN
HALF THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
BY SUNDAY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH EVEN WARMER AIR. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB
TO NEAR 105 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NECESSARY IN LATER FORECASTS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
REACHING THE 105 DEGREE MARK. THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A COLD FRONT THIS TIME OF YEAR
CAN BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS NORTH ALABAMA MONDAY
MORNING...BUT INCREASING CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
ENCOUNTERS VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH VALUES LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. CAPE
VALUES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST
CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 3500-4500 J/KG RANGE. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ALSO MENTIONED SOUTH ALABAMA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO ON
MONDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20.

58/ROSE


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN FASTER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY SUNSET MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A -3
STANDARD DEVIATION FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 3 OR GREATER ARE CONSIDERED
RECORD BREAKING EVENTS. BASED ON THE RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW...WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OR
JUST BELOW RECORD VALUES.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD. KMGM AND KTOI COULD SEE SOME TEMPO MVFR VIS CLOSE TO
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE NOW STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA. CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF VIS REDUCTION FOR ANY OTHER SITES
AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEST
DURING THE PERIOD AND REMAIN LIGHT.

56/GDG


&&

.CLIMATE...

ANOTHER LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. COULD WE
SEE MORE RECORD LOWS BROKEN THIS MONTH? IT`S DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.
FORECAST LOWS WEDNESDAY (JULY 30TH) MORNING ARE CURRENTLY NEAR
RECORD VALUES. HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JULY
30TH...

LOCATION        RECORD LOW TEMP
----------      ---------------
BIRMINGHAM         61 (1994)
MONTGOMERY         66 (1889)
TUSCALOOSA         67 (1954, 1960, 1965, 1969)
ANNISTON           61 (1903)


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     91  72  95  73  91 /   0  10  10  30  40
ANNISTON    93  73  96  75  88 /   0  10  10  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  95  74  98  75  94 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      93  74  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      92  73  95  73  93 /  10  10  10  10  50
MONTGOMERY  95  75  98  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  50
TROY        94  73  97  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 260827
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
327 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INTENSIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS WEEKEND AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES EXPANDS EASTWARD. A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT CUTS ALABAMA IN
HALF THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
BY SUNDAY HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH EVEN WARMER AIR. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB
TO NEAR 105 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NECESSARY IN LATER FORECASTS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
REACHING THE 105 DEGREE MARK. THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL PUT A LID ON ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND NO RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A COLD FRONT THIS TIME OF YEAR
CAN BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS NORTH ALABAMA MONDAY
MORNING...BUT INCREASING CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
ENCOUNTERS VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH VALUES LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. CAPE
VALUES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST
CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 3500-4500 J/KG RANGE. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ALSO MENTIONED SOUTH ALABAMA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO ON
MONDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20.

58/ROSE


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN FASTER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY SUNSET MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW A DEEP UPPER TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A -3
STANDARD DEVIATION FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA. STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 3 OR GREATER ARE CONSIDERED
RECORD BREAKING EVENTS. BASED ON THE RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW...WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT OR
JUST BELOW RECORD VALUES.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD. KMGM AND KTOI COULD SEE SOME TEMPO MVFR VIS CLOSE TO
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE NOW STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA. CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF VIS REDUCTION FOR ANY OTHER SITES
AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEST
DURING THE PERIOD AND REMAIN LIGHT.

56/GDG


&&

.CLIMATE...

ANOTHER LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. COULD WE
SEE MORE RECORD LOWS BROKEN THIS MONTH? IT`S DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.
FORECAST LOWS WEDNESDAY (JULY 30TH) MORNING ARE CURRENTLY NEAR
RECORD VALUES. HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JULY
30TH...

LOCATION        RECORD LOW TEMP
----------      ---------------
BIRMINGHAM         61 (1994)
MONTGOMERY         66 (1889)
TUSCALOOSA         67 (1954, 1960, 1965, 1969)
ANNISTON           61 (1903)


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     91  72  95  73  91 /   0  10  10  30  40
ANNISTON    93  73  96  75  88 /   0  10  10  20  40
BIRMINGHAM  93  75  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
TUSCALOOSA  95  74  98  75  94 /   0  10  10  20  40
CALERA      93  74  96  75  93 /   0  10  10  20  40
AUBURN      92  73  95  73  93 /  10  10  10  10  50
MONTGOMERY  95  75  98  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  50
TROY        94  73  97  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









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