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000
FXUS64 KBMX 261137
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
537 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED IN THE UPPER PLAINS AND
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY DRAGGING A FRONT ALONG WITH IT INTO ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI
THIS AFTERNOON THEN INTO ALABAMA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND ACROSS TENNESSEE TONIGHT CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW/
TROUGH...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH OR BEHIND THIS FRONT AS THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHALLOW.

ON THE FLIP SIDE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
ALABAMA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS SWINGING OUT OF THE AREA TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST SO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY TODAY.

AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME TO TODAY`S SYSTEM...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE
COMING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED AND SHOW A LITTLE BETTER THOUGH
ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AND THUS BRINGING A LITTLE
BETTER NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA IN ITS WAKE. SO...EXPECTING
TO SEE A DIP IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT
WITH A MODERATING OF TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND BECOMES ZONAL.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...A FEW WEAK RIPPLES MAINLY TO THE
NORTH IN THE UPPER MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
INCREASE BUT ONLY LOW POPS ARE ON TAP AT THIS TIME AS WE MOVE INTO
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ATTEMPTING
TO PUSH INTO ALABAMA. HOWEVER...IT MAY STALL/FIZZLE OUT WITH ONLY
POOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PROGGED AT THIS TIME.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SWITCH
FROM NW TO SW BY THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SECONDARY FRONT. THIS WILL PASS THRU CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO THE NW. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 7-10
KTS THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LIGHTER WINDS THIS MORNING.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  35  46  28  51 /  10  10  10   0   0
ANNISTON    53  35  47  28  52 /  10  10  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  55  36  47  30  53 /  10  10  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  57  36  51  31  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
CALERA      55  36  49  31  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      55  37  51  31  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  59  37  54  31  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        58  38  54  32  55 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 260955
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED IN THE UPPER PLAINS AND
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY DRAGGING A FRONT ALONG WITH IT INTO ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI
THIS AFTERNOON THEN INTO ALABAMA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND ACROSS TENNESSEE TONIGHT CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW/
TROUGH...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH OR BEHIND THIS FRONT AS THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHALLOW.

ON THE FLIP SIDE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
ALABAMA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS SWINGING OUT OF THE AREA TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST SO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY TODAY.

AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME TO TODAY`S SYSTEM...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE
COMING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED AND SHOW A LITTLE BETTER THOUGH
ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AND THUS BRINGING A LITTLE
BETTER NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA IN ITS WAKE. SO...EXPECTING
TO SEE A DIP IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT
WITH A MODERATING OF TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND BECOMES ZONAL.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...A FEW WEAK RIPPLES MAINLY TO THE
NORTH IN THE UPPER MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
INCREASE BUT ONLY LOW POPS ARE ON TAP AT THIS TIME AS WE MOVE INTO
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ATTEMPTING
TO PUSH INTO ALABAMA. HOWEVER...IT MAY STALL/FIZZLE OUT WITH ONLY
POOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PROGGED AT THIS TIME.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD FRONT HAS NOW PASSED THROUGH TOI AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THE
AREA THROUGH 10Z. MOISTURE DID INCREASE OF THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WAS
ONLY ABLE TO 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN AT BEST. REMOVED THE RA FROM TOI
AND LEFT IN VCSH FOR THE TIME BEING ALTHOUGH ANY RAIN WOULD BE
EXTREMELY LIGHT. ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF MVFR CIGS AS THE
MOISTURE LEVELS JUST HAVE NOT BEEN MATERIALIZING THIS EVENING AND
THE BMX SOUNDING FROM 00Z SHOWS AN EXTREME DRY SLOT JUST BELOW THE
CLOUD DECK OF 10 KFT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 7-10 KTS WITH SOME
VARIABILITY TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE SWITCHING
BACK TO THE WEST AFTER 3Z IN THE NORTH AND 6 TO 8Z IN THE SOUTHEAST.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  35  46  28  51 /  10  10  10   0   0
ANNISTON    53  35  47  28  52 /  10  10  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  55  36  47  30  53 /  10  10  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  57  36  51  31  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
CALERA      55  36  49  31  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      55  37  51  31  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  59  37  54  31  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        58  38  54  32  55 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16






000
FXUS64 KBMX 260955
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED IN THE UPPER PLAINS AND
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY DRAGGING A FRONT ALONG WITH IT INTO ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI
THIS AFTERNOON THEN INTO ALABAMA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND ACROSS TENNESSEE TONIGHT CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW/
TROUGH...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH OR BEHIND THIS FRONT AS THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHALLOW.

ON THE FLIP SIDE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
ALABAMA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS SWINGING OUT OF THE AREA TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST SO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY TODAY.

AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME TO TODAY`S SYSTEM...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE
COMING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED AND SHOW A LITTLE BETTER THOUGH
ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AND THUS BRINGING A LITTLE
BETTER NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA IN ITS WAKE. SO...EXPECTING
TO SEE A DIP IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT
WITH A MODERATING OF TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND BECOMES ZONAL.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...A FEW WEAK RIPPLES MAINLY TO THE
NORTH IN THE UPPER MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
INCREASE BUT ONLY LOW POPS ARE ON TAP AT THIS TIME AS WE MOVE INTO
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ATTEMPTING
TO PUSH INTO ALABAMA. HOWEVER...IT MAY STALL/FIZZLE OUT WITH ONLY
POOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PROGGED AT THIS TIME.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD FRONT HAS NOW PASSED THROUGH TOI AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THE
AREA THROUGH 10Z. MOISTURE DID INCREASE OF THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WAS
ONLY ABLE TO 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN AT BEST. REMOVED THE RA FROM TOI
AND LEFT IN VCSH FOR THE TIME BEING ALTHOUGH ANY RAIN WOULD BE
EXTREMELY LIGHT. ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF MVFR CIGS AS THE
MOISTURE LEVELS JUST HAVE NOT BEEN MATERIALIZING THIS EVENING AND
THE BMX SOUNDING FROM 00Z SHOWS AN EXTREME DRY SLOT JUST BELOW THE
CLOUD DECK OF 10 KFT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 7-10 KTS WITH SOME
VARIABILITY TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE SWITCHING
BACK TO THE WEST AFTER 3Z IN THE NORTH AND 6 TO 8Z IN THE SOUTHEAST.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  35  46  28  51 /  10  10  10   0   0
ANNISTON    53  35  47  28  52 /  10  10  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  55  36  47  30  53 /  10  10  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  57  36  51  31  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
CALERA      55  36  49  31  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      55  37  51  31  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  59  37  54  31  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        58  38  54  32  55 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16







000
FXUS64 KBMX 260955
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED IN THE UPPER PLAINS AND
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY DRAGGING A FRONT ALONG WITH IT INTO ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI
THIS AFTERNOON THEN INTO ALABAMA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND ACROSS TENNESSEE TONIGHT CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW/
TROUGH...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH OR BEHIND THIS FRONT AS THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHALLOW.

ON THE FLIP SIDE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
ALABAMA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS SWINGING OUT OF THE AREA TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST SO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY TODAY.

AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME TO TODAY`S SYSTEM...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE
COMING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED AND SHOW A LITTLE BETTER THOUGH
ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AND THUS BRINGING A LITTLE
BETTER NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA IN ITS WAKE. SO...EXPECTING
TO SEE A DIP IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT
WITH A MODERATING OF TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND BECOMES ZONAL.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...A FEW WEAK RIPPLES MAINLY TO THE
NORTH IN THE UPPER MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
INCREASE BUT ONLY LOW POPS ARE ON TAP AT THIS TIME AS WE MOVE INTO
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ATTEMPTING
TO PUSH INTO ALABAMA. HOWEVER...IT MAY STALL/FIZZLE OUT WITH ONLY
POOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PROGGED AT THIS TIME.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD FRONT HAS NOW PASSED THROUGH TOI AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THE
AREA THROUGH 10Z. MOISTURE DID INCREASE OF THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WAS
ONLY ABLE TO 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN AT BEST. REMOVED THE RA FROM TOI
AND LEFT IN VCSH FOR THE TIME BEING ALTHOUGH ANY RAIN WOULD BE
EXTREMELY LIGHT. ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF MVFR CIGS AS THE
MOISTURE LEVELS JUST HAVE NOT BEEN MATERIALIZING THIS EVENING AND
THE BMX SOUNDING FROM 00Z SHOWS AN EXTREME DRY SLOT JUST BELOW THE
CLOUD DECK OF 10 KFT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 7-10 KTS WITH SOME
VARIABILITY TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE SWITCHING
BACK TO THE WEST AFTER 3Z IN THE NORTH AND 6 TO 8Z IN THE SOUTHEAST.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  35  46  28  51 /  10  10  10   0   0
ANNISTON    53  35  47  28  52 /  10  10  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  55  36  47  30  53 /  10  10  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  57  36  51  31  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
CALERA      55  36  49  31  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      55  37  51  31  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  59  37  54  31  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        58  38  54  32  55 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16







000
FXUS64 KBMX 260955
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED IN THE UPPER PLAINS AND
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY DRAGGING A FRONT ALONG WITH IT INTO ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI
THIS AFTERNOON THEN INTO ALABAMA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND ACROSS TENNESSEE TONIGHT CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW/
TROUGH...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH OR BEHIND THIS FRONT AS THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHALLOW.

ON THE FLIP SIDE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
ALABAMA YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS SWINGING OUT OF THE AREA TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST SO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY TODAY.

AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME TO TODAY`S SYSTEM...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE
COMING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED AND SHOW A LITTLE BETTER THOUGH
ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AND THUS BRINGING A LITTLE
BETTER NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS ALABAMA IN ITS WAKE. SO...EXPECTING
TO SEE A DIP IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT
WITH A MODERATING OF TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND BECOMES ZONAL.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...A FEW WEAK RIPPLES MAINLY TO THE
NORTH IN THE UPPER MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
INCREASE BUT ONLY LOW POPS ARE ON TAP AT THIS TIME AS WE MOVE INTO
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ATTEMPTING
TO PUSH INTO ALABAMA. HOWEVER...IT MAY STALL/FIZZLE OUT WITH ONLY
POOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PROGGED AT THIS TIME.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD FRONT HAS NOW PASSED THROUGH TOI AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THE
AREA THROUGH 10Z. MOISTURE DID INCREASE OF THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WAS
ONLY ABLE TO 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN AT BEST. REMOVED THE RA FROM TOI
AND LEFT IN VCSH FOR THE TIME BEING ALTHOUGH ANY RAIN WOULD BE
EXTREMELY LIGHT. ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF MVFR CIGS AS THE
MOISTURE LEVELS JUST HAVE NOT BEEN MATERIALIZING THIS EVENING AND
THE BMX SOUNDING FROM 00Z SHOWS AN EXTREME DRY SLOT JUST BELOW THE
CLOUD DECK OF 10 KFT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 7-10 KTS WITH SOME
VARIABILITY TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE SWITCHING
BACK TO THE WEST AFTER 3Z IN THE NORTH AND 6 TO 8Z IN THE SOUTHEAST.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  35  46  28  51 /  10  10  10   0   0
ANNISTON    53  35  47  28  52 /  10  10  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  55  36  47  30  53 /  10  10  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  57  36  51  31  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
CALERA      55  36  49  31  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      55  37  51  31  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  59  37  54  31  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        58  38  54  32  55 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16






000
FXUS64 KBMX 260523
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1123 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VERY DRY AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THIS
EVENING...PREVENTING RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA. CLOUD BASES REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAVE OBSERVED SOME VERY LIGHT RAINFALL.
TRIMMED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. THE BACK EDGE OF MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ENTERING THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AT THE
CURRENT TIME AND SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA BY DAYBREAK. HAVE
DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
AS A RESULT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD FRONT HAS NOW PASSED THROUGH TOI AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THE
AREA THROUGH 10Z. MOISTURE DID INCREASE OF THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WAS
ONLY ABLE TO 0.01 INCHES OF RAIN AT BEST. REMOVED THE RA FROM TOI
AND LEFT IN VCSH FOR THE TIME BEING ALTHOUGH ANY RAIN WOULD BE
EXTREMELY LIGHT. ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF MVFR CIGS AS THE
MOISTURE LEVELS JUST HAVE NOT BEEN MATERIALIZING THIS EVENING AND
THE BMX SOUNDING FROM 00Z SHOWS AN EXTREME DRY SLOT JUST BELOW THE
CLOUD DECK OF 10KFT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 7-10KTS WITH SOME
VARIABILITY TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE SWITCHING
BACK TO THE WEST AFTER 3Z IN THE NORTH AND 6 TO 8Z IN THE SOUTHEAST.

16

&&


.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/16










000
FXUS64 KBMX 260336
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
936 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VERY DRY AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THIS
EVENING...PREVENTING RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA. CLOUD BASES REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAVE OBSERVED SOME VERY LIGHT RAINFALL.
TRIMMED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. THE BACK EDGE OF MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ENTERING THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AT THE
CURRENT TIME AND SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA BY DAYBREAK. HAVE
DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
AS A RESULT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW CYCLOGENESIS TO TAKE PLACE EAST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE MUCH OF THE LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...KEPT THE MENTION OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VIS WITH LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR TOI/MGM/ANB. THE REMAINING TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CEILINGS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 7-10KTS WITH SOME
VARIABILITY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER QUICK MOVING FRONT.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     35  54  34  48  29 /  10  10  10   0   0
ANNISTON    36  53  35  49  30 /  20  10  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  34  55  36  49  31 /  10  10  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  33  58  36  52  32 /  10  10  10   0   0
CALERA      35  56  36  50  32 /  10  10  10   0   0
AUBURN      41  55  37  52  33 /  50  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  38  59  36  55  32 /  20  10   0   0   0
TROY        39  58  37  55  34 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/16






000
FXUS64 KBMX 252339
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
539 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN STATES LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP SPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT. POPS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM CATEGORICAL IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST...TO NEGLIGIBLE IN
THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT IN
FORECASTING THE RAIN TO SPREAD FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST
TONIGHT. AND JUDGING BY THE LOOK OF THE RADAR SWEEPS IN LA AND
MS...ONE MAY AT FIRST THINK THAT THE NAM IS ON TO SOMETHING. BUT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THAT AREA SHOW NO RAIN CURRENTLY HITTING
THE GROUND...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND CLOUD
BASES AT 8000 FEET OR MORE. THE RADAR PRESENTATION`S BARK IS
APPARENTLY WORSE THAN ITS BITE. WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR.

THE RAIN QUICKLY MOVES OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS WE GET ON
THE NVA SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
FEATURES A LARGELY ZONAL TYPE PATTERN...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE OR LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS. ONE SURFACE COLD FRONT DOES
GET AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THIS
COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TO INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
A BIT ABOVE CLIMO.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW CYCLOGENESIS TO TAKE PLACE EAST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE MUCH OF THE LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...KEPT THE MENTION OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VIS WITH LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR TOI/MGM/ANB. THE REMAINING TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CEILINGS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 7-10KTS WITH SOME
VARIABILITY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER QUICK MOVING FRONT.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 252339
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
539 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN STATES LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP SPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT. POPS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM CATEGORICAL IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST...TO NEGLIGIBLE IN
THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT IN
FORECASTING THE RAIN TO SPREAD FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST
TONIGHT. AND JUDGING BY THE LOOK OF THE RADAR SWEEPS IN LA AND
MS...ONE MAY AT FIRST THINK THAT THE NAM IS ON TO SOMETHING. BUT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THAT AREA SHOW NO RAIN CURRENTLY HITTING
THE GROUND...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND CLOUD
BASES AT 8000 FEET OR MORE. THE RADAR PRESENTATION`S BARK IS
APPARENTLY WORSE THAN ITS BITE. WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR.

THE RAIN QUICKLY MOVES OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS WE GET ON
THE NVA SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
FEATURES A LARGELY ZONAL TYPE PATTERN...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE OR LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS. ONE SURFACE COLD FRONT DOES
GET AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THIS
COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TO INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
A BIT ABOVE CLIMO.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW CYCLOGENESIS TO TAKE PLACE EAST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE MUCH OF THE LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...KEPT THE MENTION OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VIS WITH LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR TOI/MGM/ANB. THE REMAINING TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CEILINGS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 7-10KTS WITH SOME
VARIABILITY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER QUICK MOVING FRONT.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 252120
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
320 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN STATES LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP SPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT. POPS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM CATEGORICAL IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST...TO NEGLIGIBLE IN
THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT IN
FORECASTING THE RAIN TO SPREAD FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST
TONIGHT. AND JUDGING BY THE LOOK OF THE RADAR SWEEPS IN LA AND
MS...ONE MAY AT FIRST THINK THAT THE NAM IS ON TO SOMETHING. BUT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THAT AREA SHOW NO RAIN CURRENTLY HITTING
THE GROUND...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND CLOUD
BASES AT 8000 FEET OR MORE. THE RADAR PRESENTATION`S BARK IS
APPARENTLY WORSE THAN ITS BITE. WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR.

THE RAIN QUICKLY MOVES OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS WE GET ON
THE NVA SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
FEATURES A LARGELY ZONAL TYPE PATTERN...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE OR LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS. ONE SURFACE COLD FRONT DOES
GET AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THIS
COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TO INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
A BIT ABOVE CLIMO.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW CYCLOGENESIS TO TAKE PLACE EAST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE MUCH OF THE LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...KEPT THE MENTION OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VIS WITH LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR TOI/MGM/ANB. THE REMAINING TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CEILINGS.

WINDS REMAIN NORTHWEST AT 5-7KTS WITH SOME VARIABILITY ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER QUICK MOVING FRONT.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     35  54  34  48  29 /  30  10  10   0   0
ANNISTON    37  53  35  49  30 /  40  10  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  36  55  36  49  31 /  30  10  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  35  58  36  52  32 /  20  10  10   0   0
CALERA      37  56  36  50  32 /  30  10  10   0   0
AUBURN      41  55  37  52  33 /  70  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  39  59  36  55  32 /  50  10   0   0   0
TROY        40  58  37  55  34 /  70  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 251805
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1205 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE AND AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS TODAY AND TONIGHT...A LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO EASE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. WHILE
MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS...LOWER CLOUDS WILL
AFFECT THE SOUTH EASTERN HALF. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON FOR FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS NEAR EUFAULA. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINS EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

OTHERWISE...SMOOTHED OUT THE TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. UPDATES
ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW CYCLOGENESIS TO TAKE PLACE EAST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE MUCH OF THE LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...KEPT THE MENTION OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VIS WITH LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR TOI/MGM/ANB. THE REMAINING TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CEILINGS.

WINDS REMAIN NORTHWEST AT 5-7KTS WITH SOME VARIABILITY ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER QUICK MOVING FRONT.

75


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 454 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE FRONT HAS PROGRESSED INTO EASTERN GEORGIA
AND WELL PAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING INTO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE FAIRLY STABLE AT THE SURFACE...SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. AGAIN WITH INSTABILITY
LACKING...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY AS THE VORT MAX SHIFTS
INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TO SLIGHTLY REINFORCE
THE COOLER AIR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH THERE MAY END UP BEING JUST ENOUGH OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW TO USHER IN A LITTLE MORE COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY.
WHAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY PASSAGE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT MODERATING
OF TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK RIPPLES TO THE NORTH IN THE UPPER
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW BUT THEY MAY JUST END UP BRINGING A SOME CLOUD
COVER WITH MEAGER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. FOR NOW ONLY LOW POPS ON
MONDAY AS WE ROUND OUT THE EXTENDED. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THESE WEAK PERTURBATIONS
WILL BE. SO FOR MOST...THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE DRY.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  34  54  34  49 /  10  20  10  10  10
ANNISTON    62  36  54  35  50 /  10  40  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  60  36  55  36  50 /  10  20  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  61  34  58  36  53 /  10  20  10   0   0
CALERA      61  36  56  36  51 /  10  20  10   0   0
AUBURN      61  39  55  37  53 /  30  60  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  63  37  59  36  56 /  20  50  10   0   0
TROY        60  38  58  37  56 /  50  70  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 251805
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1205 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE AND AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS TODAY AND TONIGHT...A LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO EASE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. WHILE
MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS...LOWER CLOUDS WILL
AFFECT THE SOUTH EASTERN HALF. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON FOR FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS NEAR EUFAULA. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINS EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

OTHERWISE...SMOOTHED OUT THE TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. UPDATES
ALREADY OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW CYCLOGENESIS TO TAKE PLACE EAST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE MUCH OF THE LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...KEPT THE MENTION OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VIS WITH LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR TOI/MGM/ANB. THE REMAINING TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CEILINGS.

WINDS REMAIN NORTHWEST AT 5-7KTS WITH SOME VARIABILITY ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER QUICK MOVING FRONT.

75


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 454 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE FRONT HAS PROGRESSED INTO EASTERN GEORGIA
AND WELL PAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING INTO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE FAIRLY STABLE AT THE SURFACE...SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. AGAIN WITH INSTABILITY
LACKING...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY AS THE VORT MAX SHIFTS
INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TO SLIGHTLY REINFORCE
THE COOLER AIR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH THERE MAY END UP BEING JUST ENOUGH OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW TO USHER IN A LITTLE MORE COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY.
WHAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY PASSAGE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT MODERATING
OF TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK RIPPLES TO THE NORTH IN THE UPPER
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW BUT THEY MAY JUST END UP BRINGING A SOME CLOUD
COVER WITH MEAGER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. FOR NOW ONLY LOW POPS ON
MONDAY AS WE ROUND OUT THE EXTENDED. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THESE WEAK PERTURBATIONS
WILL BE. SO FOR MOST...THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE DRY.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  34  54  34  49 /  10  20  10  10  10
ANNISTON    62  36  54  35  50 /  10  40  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  60  36  55  36  50 /  10  20  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  61  34  58  36  53 /  10  20  10   0   0
CALERA      61  36  56  36  51 /  10  20  10   0   0
AUBURN      61  39  55  37  53 /  30  60  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  63  37  59  36  56 /  20  50  10   0   0
TROY        60  38  58  37  56 /  50  70  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 251158
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
558 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE FRONT HAS PROGRESSED INTO EASTERN GEORGIA
AND WELL PAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING INTO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE FAIRLY STABLE AT THE SURFACE...SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. AGAIN WITH INSTABILITY
LACKING...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY AS THE VORT MAX SHIFTS
INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TO SLIGHTLY REINFORCE
THE COOLER AIR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH THERE MAY END UP BEING JUST ENOUGH OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW TO USHER IN A LITTLE MORE COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY.
WHAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY PASSAGE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT MODERATING
OF TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK RIPPLES TO THE NORTH IN THE UPPER
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW BUT THEY MAY JUST END UP BRINGING A SOME CLOUD
COVER WITH MEAGER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. FOR NOW ONLY LOW POPS ON
MONDAY AS WE ROUND OUT THE EXTENDED. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THESE WEAK PERTURBATIONS
WILL BE. SO FOR MOST...THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE DRY.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
FLORIDA. MGM/TOI WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT RAIN...MAINLY AFTER
00Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS THE BULK OF THE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR EAST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
N/NW AROUND 5-10 KTS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     56  34  54  34  49 /  10  20  10  10  10
ANNISTON    57  36  54  35  50 /  20  40  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  57  36  55  36  50 /  10  20  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  58  34  58  36  53 /  10  20  10   0   0
CALERA      57  36  56  36  51 /  10  20  10   0   0
AUBURN      57  39  55  37  53 /  30  60  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  60  37  59  36  56 /  20  50  10   0   0
TROY        59  38  58  37  56 /  30  70  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 251158
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
558 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE FRONT HAS PROGRESSED INTO EASTERN GEORGIA
AND WELL PAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING INTO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE FAIRLY STABLE AT THE SURFACE...SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. AGAIN WITH INSTABILITY
LACKING...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY AS THE VORT MAX SHIFTS
INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TO SLIGHTLY REINFORCE
THE COOLER AIR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH THERE MAY END UP BEING JUST ENOUGH OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW TO USHER IN A LITTLE MORE COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY.
WHAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY PASSAGE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT MODERATING
OF TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK RIPPLES TO THE NORTH IN THE UPPER
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW BUT THEY MAY JUST END UP BRINGING A SOME CLOUD
COVER WITH MEAGER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. FOR NOW ONLY LOW POPS ON
MONDAY AS WE ROUND OUT THE EXTENDED. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THESE WEAK PERTURBATIONS
WILL BE. SO FOR MOST...THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE DRY.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
FLORIDA. MGM/TOI WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT RAIN...MAINLY AFTER
00Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS THE BULK OF THE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR EAST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
N/NW AROUND 5-10 KTS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     56  34  54  34  49 /  10  20  10  10  10
ANNISTON    57  36  54  35  50 /  20  40  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  57  36  55  36  50 /  10  20  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  58  34  58  36  53 /  10  20  10   0   0
CALERA      57  36  56  36  51 /  10  20  10   0   0
AUBURN      57  39  55  37  53 /  30  60  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  60  37  59  36  56 /  20  50  10   0   0
TROY        59  38  58  37  56 /  30  70  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 251054
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
454 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE FRONT HAS PROGRESSED INTO EASTERN GEORGIA
AND WELL PAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING INTO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE FAIRLY STABLE AT THE SURFACE...SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. AGAIN WITH INSTABILITY
LACKING...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY AS THE VORT MAX SHIFTS
INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TO SLIGHTLY REINFORCE
THE COOLER AIR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH THERE MAY END UP BEING JUST ENOUGH OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW TO USHER IN A LITTLE MORE COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY.
WHAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY PASSAGE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT MODERATING
OF TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK RIPPLES TO THE NORTH IN THE UPPER
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW BUT THEY MAY JUST END UP BRINGING A SOME CLOUD
COVER WITH MEAGER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. FOR NOW ONLY LOW POPS ON
MONDAY AS WE ROUND OUT THE EXTENDED. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THESE WEAK PERTURBATIONS
WILL BE. SO FOR MOST...THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE DRY.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR EAST...BUT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...INCLUDING MGM AND TOI. ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD IN RAIN BY 3Z FOR TOI AND VCSH FOR MGM. REST OF
THE AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 6Z...BUT RAIN CHANCES
THEN GO UP AFTER THAT. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     56  34  54  34  49 /  10  20  10  10  10
ANNISTON    57  36  54  35  50 /  20  40  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  57  36  55  36  50 /  10  20  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  58  34  58  36  53 /  10  20  10   0   0
CALERA      57  36  56  36  51 /  10  20  10   0   0
AUBURN      57  39  55  37  53 /  30  60  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  60  37  59  36  56 /  20  50  10   0   0
TROY        59  38  58  37  56 /  30  70  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16







000
FXUS64 KBMX 251054
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
454 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE FRONT HAS PROGRESSED INTO EASTERN GEORGIA
AND WELL PAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING INTO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE FAIRLY STABLE AT THE SURFACE...SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. AGAIN WITH INSTABILITY
LACKING...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY AS THE VORT MAX SHIFTS
INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TO SLIGHTLY REINFORCE
THE COOLER AIR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH THERE MAY END UP BEING JUST ENOUGH OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW TO USHER IN A LITTLE MORE COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY.
WHAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY PASSAGE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT MODERATING
OF TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK RIPPLES TO THE NORTH IN THE UPPER
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW BUT THEY MAY JUST END UP BRINGING A SOME CLOUD
COVER WITH MEAGER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. FOR NOW ONLY LOW POPS ON
MONDAY AS WE ROUND OUT THE EXTENDED. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THESE WEAK PERTURBATIONS
WILL BE. SO FOR MOST...THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE DRY.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR EAST...BUT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...INCLUDING MGM AND TOI. ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD IN RAIN BY 3Z FOR TOI AND VCSH FOR MGM. REST OF
THE AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 6Z...BUT RAIN CHANCES
THEN GO UP AFTER THAT. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     56  34  54  34  49 /  10  20  10  10  10
ANNISTON    57  36  54  35  50 /  20  40  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  57  36  55  36  50 /  10  20  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  58  34  58  36  53 /  10  20  10   0   0
CALERA      57  36  56  36  51 /  10  20  10   0   0
AUBURN      57  39  55  37  53 /  30  60  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  60  37  59  36  56 /  20  50  10   0   0
TROY        59  38  58  37  56 /  30  70  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16







000
FXUS64 KBMX 251054
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
454 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE FRONT HAS PROGRESSED INTO EASTERN GEORGIA
AND WELL PAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING INTO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE FAIRLY STABLE AT THE SURFACE...SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. AGAIN WITH INSTABILITY
LACKING...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY AS THE VORT MAX SHIFTS
INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TO SLIGHTLY REINFORCE
THE COOLER AIR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH THERE MAY END UP BEING JUST ENOUGH OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW TO USHER IN A LITTLE MORE COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY.
WHAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY PASSAGE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT MODERATING
OF TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK RIPPLES TO THE NORTH IN THE UPPER
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW BUT THEY MAY JUST END UP BRINGING A SOME CLOUD
COVER WITH MEAGER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. FOR NOW ONLY LOW POPS ON
MONDAY AS WE ROUND OUT THE EXTENDED. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THESE WEAK PERTURBATIONS
WILL BE. SO FOR MOST...THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE DRY.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR EAST...BUT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...INCLUDING MGM AND TOI. ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD IN RAIN BY 3Z FOR TOI AND VCSH FOR MGM. REST OF
THE AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 6Z...BUT RAIN CHANCES
THEN GO UP AFTER THAT. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     56  34  54  34  49 /  10  20  10  10  10
ANNISTON    57  36  54  35  50 /  20  40  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  57  36  55  36  50 /  10  20  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  58  34  58  36  53 /  10  20  10   0   0
CALERA      57  36  56  36  51 /  10  20  10   0   0
AUBURN      57  39  55  37  53 /  30  60  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  60  37  59  36  56 /  20  50  10   0   0
TROY        59  38  58  37  56 /  30  70  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16






000
FXUS64 KBMX 251054
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
454 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE FRONT HAS PROGRESSED INTO EASTERN GEORGIA
AND WELL PAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING INTO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE FAIRLY STABLE AT THE SURFACE...SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. AGAIN WITH INSTABILITY
LACKING...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY AS THE VORT MAX SHIFTS
INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TO SLIGHTLY REINFORCE
THE COOLER AIR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH THERE MAY END UP BEING JUST ENOUGH OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW TO USHER IN A LITTLE MORE COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY.
WHAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY PASSAGE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT MODERATING
OF TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK RIPPLES TO THE NORTH IN THE UPPER
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW BUT THEY MAY JUST END UP BRINGING A SOME CLOUD
COVER WITH MEAGER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. FOR NOW ONLY LOW POPS ON
MONDAY AS WE ROUND OUT THE EXTENDED. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THESE WEAK PERTURBATIONS
WILL BE. SO FOR MOST...THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE DRY.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR EAST...BUT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...INCLUDING MGM AND TOI. ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD IN RAIN BY 3Z FOR TOI AND VCSH FOR MGM. REST OF
THE AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 6Z...BUT RAIN CHANCES
THEN GO UP AFTER THAT. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     56  34  54  34  49 /  10  20  10  10  10
ANNISTON    57  36  54  35  50 /  20  40  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  57  36  55  36  50 /  10  20  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  58  34  58  36  53 /  10  20  10   0   0
CALERA      57  36  56  36  51 /  10  20  10   0   0
AUBURN      57  39  55  37  53 /  30  60  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  60  37  59  36  56 /  20  50  10   0   0
TROY        59  38  58  37  56 /  30  70  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16






000
FXUS64 KBMX 250530
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1130 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING IN COOLER AND DRIER
AIR. SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS DECK STREAMING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST.

MADE TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED. STILL SEEING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
BACK INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR EAST...BUT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...INCLUDING MGM AND TOI. ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD IN RAIN BY 3Z FOR TOI AND VCSH FOR MGM. REST OF
THE AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 6Z...BUT RAIN CHANCES
THEN GO UP AFTER THAT. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 250530
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1130 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING IN COOLER AND DRIER
AIR. SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS DECK STREAMING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST.

MADE TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED. STILL SEEING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
BACK INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR EAST...BUT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...INCLUDING MGM AND TOI. ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD IN RAIN BY 3Z FOR TOI AND VCSH FOR MGM. REST OF
THE AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 6Z...BUT RAIN CHANCES
THEN GO UP AFTER THAT. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 250329 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
929 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING IN COOLER AND DRIER
AIR. SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS DECK STREAMING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST.

MADE TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED. STILL SEEING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
BACK INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS
NOW EAST OF THE AREA AND THE WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SWITCHING
TO MORE NW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND N DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. OVERALL
TAF FORECAST IS A WIND FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BEFORE
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 537 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST. COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THANKSGIVING WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 50 TO NEAR 60 WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

THE NEXT RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND PULLS
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE A CLEARING SHORTWAVE LIFTS EVERYTHING UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN
OUT BY FRIDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS IS TYPICALLY AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN SO LEANED
MORE TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER NUMBERS INSTEAD OF THE CONSALL.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     37  56  34  54  33 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    39  57  36  55  35 /  10  10  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  40  57  36  56  35 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  39  58  34  58  35 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      40  57  36  56  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      44  56  38  55  37 /  10  20  60  10   0
MONTGOMERY  43  58  37  59  35 /  10  20  40  10   0
TROY        45  58  37  58  36 /  10  30  70  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 250329 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
929 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING IN COOLER AND DRIER
AIR. SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS DECK STREAMING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST.

MADE TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED. STILL SEEING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
BACK INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS
NOW EAST OF THE AREA AND THE WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SWITCHING
TO MORE NW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND N DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. OVERALL
TAF FORECAST IS A WIND FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BEFORE
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 537 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST. COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THANKSGIVING WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 50 TO NEAR 60 WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

THE NEXT RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND PULLS
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE A CLEARING SHORTWAVE LIFTS EVERYTHING UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN
OUT BY FRIDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS IS TYPICALLY AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN SO LEANED
MORE TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER NUMBERS INSTEAD OF THE CONSALL.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     37  56  34  54  33 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    39  57  36  55  35 /  10  10  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  40  57  36  56  35 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  39  58  34  58  35 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      40  57  36  56  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      44  56  38  55  37 /  10  20  60  10   0
MONTGOMERY  43  58  37  59  35 /  10  20  40  10   0
TROY        45  58  37  58  36 /  10  30  70  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 242337
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
537 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST. COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THANKSGIVING WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 50 TO NEAR 60 WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

THE NEXT RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND PULLS
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE A CLEARING SHORTWAVE LIFTS EVERYTHING UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN
OUT BY FRIDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS IS TYPICALLY AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN SO LEANED
MORE TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER NUMBERS INSTEAD OF THE CONSALL.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS
NOW EAST OF THE AREA AND THE WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SWITCHING
TO MORE NW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND N DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. OVERALL
TAF FORECAST IS A WIND FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BEFORE
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     37  56  34  54  33 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    39  57  36  55  35 /  10  10  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  40  57  36  56  35 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  39  58  34  58  35 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      40  57  36  56  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      44  56  38  55  37 /  10  20  60  10   0
MONTGOMERY  43  58  37  59  35 /  10  20  40  10   0
TROY        43  58  37  58  36 /  10  30  70  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 242337
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
537 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST. COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THANKSGIVING WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 50 TO NEAR 60 WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

THE NEXT RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND PULLS
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE A CLEARING SHORTWAVE LIFTS EVERYTHING UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN
OUT BY FRIDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS IS TYPICALLY AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN SO LEANED
MORE TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER NUMBERS INSTEAD OF THE CONSALL.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS
NOW EAST OF THE AREA AND THE WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SWITCHING
TO MORE NW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND N DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. OVERALL
TAF FORECAST IS A WIND FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BEFORE
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     37  56  34  54  33 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    39  57  36  55  35 /  10  10  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  40  57  36  56  35 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  39  58  34  58  35 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      40  57  36  56  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      44  56  38  55  37 /  10  20  60  10   0
MONTGOMERY  43  58  37  59  35 /  10  20  40  10   0
TROY        43  58  37  58  36 /  10  30  70  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 242116
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
316 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST. COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THANKSGIVING WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 50 TO NEAR 60 WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

THE NEXT RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND PULLS
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE A CLEARING SHORTWAVE LIFTS EVERYTHING UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN
OUT BY FRIDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS IS TYPICALLY AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN SO LEANED
MORE TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER NUMBERS INSTEAD OF THE CONSALL.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WAS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 18-24KTS. ACTUALLY
LOWERED THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER A BIT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN AREA
OF MOISTURE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...THE CLOUDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN SCATTERED.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     37  56  34  54  33 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    39  57  36  55  35 /  10  10  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  40  57  36  56  35 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  39  58  34  58  35 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      40  57  36  56  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      44  56  38  55  37 /  10  20  60  10   0
MONTGOMERY  43  58  37  59  35 /  10  20  40  10   0
TROY        43  58  37  58  36 /  10  30  70  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 242116
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
316 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST. COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THANKSGIVING WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 50 TO NEAR 60 WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

THE NEXT RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND PULLS
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE A CLEARING SHORTWAVE LIFTS EVERYTHING UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN
OUT BY FRIDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS IS TYPICALLY AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN SO LEANED
MORE TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER NUMBERS INSTEAD OF THE CONSALL.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WAS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 18-24KTS. ACTUALLY
LOWERED THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER A BIT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN AREA
OF MOISTURE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...THE CLOUDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN SCATTERED.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     37  56  34  54  33 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    39  57  36  55  35 /  10  10  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  40  57  36  56  35 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  39  58  34  58  35 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      40  57  36  56  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      44  56  38  55  37 /  10  20  60  10   0
MONTGOMERY  43  58  37  59  35 /  10  20  40  10   0
TROY        43  58  37  58  36 /  10  30  70  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 242116
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
316 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST. COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THANKSGIVING WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 50 TO NEAR 60 WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

THE NEXT RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND PULLS
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE A CLEARING SHORTWAVE LIFTS EVERYTHING UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN
OUT BY FRIDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS IS TYPICALLY AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN SO LEANED
MORE TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER NUMBERS INSTEAD OF THE CONSALL.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WAS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 18-24KTS. ACTUALLY
LOWERED THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER A BIT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN AREA
OF MOISTURE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...THE CLOUDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN SCATTERED.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     37  56  34  54  33 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    39  57  36  55  35 /  10  10  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  40  57  36  56  35 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  39  58  34  58  35 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      40  57  36  56  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      44  56  38  55  37 /  10  20  60  10   0
MONTGOMERY  43  58  37  59  35 /  10  20  40  10   0
TROY        43  58  37  58  36 /  10  30  70  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 242116
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
316 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST. COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THANKSGIVING WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 50 TO NEAR 60 WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

THE NEXT RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND PULLS
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE A CLEARING SHORTWAVE LIFTS EVERYTHING UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN
OUT BY FRIDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS IS TYPICALLY AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PATTERN SO LEANED
MORE TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER NUMBERS INSTEAD OF THE CONSALL.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WAS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 18-24KTS. ACTUALLY
LOWERED THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER A BIT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN AREA
OF MOISTURE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...THE CLOUDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN SCATTERED.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     37  56  34  54  33 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    39  57  36  55  35 /  10  10  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  40  57  36  56  35 /  10  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  39  58  34  58  35 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      40  57  36  56  36 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      44  56  38  55  37 /  10  20  60  10   0
MONTGOMERY  43  58  37  59  35 /  10  20  40  10   0
TROY        43  58  37  58  36 /  10  30  70  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 241742
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1142 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE AND AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS WRITING.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WERE REALLY WARMING UP FROM JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT TO ALL AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE
TREND UPWARD AS WELL AS HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES. ALTHOUGH A
BAND OF MOISTURE WAS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT...THE CLOUDS WILL
MAINLY BE SCATTERED.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WAS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 18-24KTS. ACTUALLY
LOWERED THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER A BIT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN AREA
OF MOISTURE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...THE CLOUDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN SCATTERED.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 441 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

A SURFACE FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD MAKE SUFFICIENT PROGRESS THROUGH SUNRISE
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND THEN MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA DURING THE
DAYTIME. WINDS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI THIS AM ARE RATHER
ROBUST WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS. HOWEVER...AS THE ASSOCIATED
LOW TREKS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN
INTO CANADA THIS MORNING PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD LIGHTEN. SO
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR WINDS...ALBEIT BREEZY AND GUSTY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY. ON THE FLIP SIDE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST (GENERALLY SOUTH
OF A TROY TO CRAWFORD LINE) FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT WITH A LITTLE
LINGERING MOISTURE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...THE FAR NORTHWEST
HAS ALREADY SEE THEIR CALENDAR DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST
PART AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STEADY UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THEN FALL SOME AND MAYBE GO BACK UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON AT BEST WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL EFFECTS.
THE I20 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE ONLY MINIMAL WARMING TODAY AND THE I85
CORRIDOR SHOULD 10 DEGREES OR SO. THINGS SHOULD COOL OFF NICELY
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT...BUT SOME NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STICK
AROUND FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MOST PART ABOVE FREEZING.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER AT BRINGING
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY DAYTIME ON
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT MAY BE ALL WE GET WITH THIS
ONE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT MODERATING
OF TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK RIPPLES TO THE NORTH IN THE UPPER
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO SCRAPE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
IN EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING. SO FOR MOST...NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  35  54  34  53 /  10  10  10  20  10
ANNISTON    70  38  55  36  54 /  10  10  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  68  40  56  37  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  38  57  35  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      68  40  57  37  55 /  10  10  20  20  10
AUBURN      70  43  56  39  54 /  10  10  20  60  10
MONTGOMERY  74  41  59  37  59 /  10  10  20  40  10
TROY        76  41  58  37  57 /  10  10  30  60  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 241742
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1142 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE AND AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS WRITING.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WERE REALLY WARMING UP FROM JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT TO ALL AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE
TREND UPWARD AS WELL AS HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES. ALTHOUGH A
BAND OF MOISTURE WAS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT...THE CLOUDS WILL
MAINLY BE SCATTERED.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WAS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 18-24KTS. ACTUALLY
LOWERED THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER A BIT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN AREA
OF MOISTURE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...THE CLOUDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN SCATTERED.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 441 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

A SURFACE FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD MAKE SUFFICIENT PROGRESS THROUGH SUNRISE
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND THEN MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA DURING THE
DAYTIME. WINDS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI THIS AM ARE RATHER
ROBUST WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS. HOWEVER...AS THE ASSOCIATED
LOW TREKS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN
INTO CANADA THIS MORNING PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD LIGHTEN. SO
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR WINDS...ALBEIT BREEZY AND GUSTY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY. ON THE FLIP SIDE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST (GENERALLY SOUTH
OF A TROY TO CRAWFORD LINE) FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT WITH A LITTLE
LINGERING MOISTURE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...THE FAR NORTHWEST
HAS ALREADY SEE THEIR CALENDAR DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST
PART AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STEADY UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THEN FALL SOME AND MAYBE GO BACK UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON AT BEST WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL EFFECTS.
THE I20 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE ONLY MINIMAL WARMING TODAY AND THE I85
CORRIDOR SHOULD 10 DEGREES OR SO. THINGS SHOULD COOL OFF NICELY
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT...BUT SOME NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STICK
AROUND FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MOST PART ABOVE FREEZING.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER AT BRINGING
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY DAYTIME ON
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT MAY BE ALL WE GET WITH THIS
ONE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT MODERATING
OF TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK RIPPLES TO THE NORTH IN THE UPPER
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO SCRAPE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
IN EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING. SO FOR MOST...NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  35  54  34  53 /  10  10  10  20  10
ANNISTON    70  38  55  36  54 /  10  10  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  68  40  56  37  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  38  57  35  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      68  40  57  37  55 /  10  10  20  20  10
AUBURN      70  43  56  39  54 /  10  10  20  60  10
MONTGOMERY  74  41  59  37  59 /  10  10  20  40  10
TROY        76  41  58  37  57 /  10  10  30  60  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 241150
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
550 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD MAKE SUFFICIENT PROGRESS THROUGH SUNRISE
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND THEN MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA DURING THE
DAYTIME. WINDS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI THIS AM ARE RATHER
ROBUST WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS. HOWEVER...AS THE ASSOCIATED
LOW TREKS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN
INTO CANADA THIS MORNING PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD LIGHTEN. SO
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR WINDS...ALBEIT BREEZY AND GUSTY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY. ON THE FLIP SIDE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST (GENERALLY SOUTH
OF A TROY TO CRAWFORD LINE) FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT WITH A LITTLE
LINGERING MOISTURE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...THE FAR NORTHWEST
HAS ALREADY SEE THEIR CALENDAR DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST
PART AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STEADY UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THEN FALL SOME AND MAYBE GO BACK UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON AT BEST WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL EFFECTS.
THE I20 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE ONLY MINIMAL WARMING TODAY AND THE I85
CORRIDOR SHOULD 10 DEGREES OR SO. THINGS SHOULD COOL OFF NICELY
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT...BUT SOME NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STICK
AROUND FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MOST PART ABOVE FREEZING.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER AT BRINGING
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY DAYTIME ON
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT MAY BE ALL WE GET WITH THIS
ONE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT MODERATING
OF TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK RIPPLES TO THE NORTH IN THE UPPER
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO SCRAPE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
IN EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING. SO FOR MOST...NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SW AT 10-12 KTS THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS THRU LATER TODAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
W/NW.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  35  54  34  53 /  10  10  10  20  10
ANNISTON    67  38  55  36  54 /  10  10  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  64  40  56  37  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  38  57  35  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      65  40  57  37  55 /  10  10  20  20  10
AUBURN      71  43  56  39  54 /  10  10  20  60  10
MONTGOMERY  72  41  59  37  59 /  10  10  20  40  10
TROY        74  41  58  37  57 /  10  10  30  60  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 241150
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
550 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD MAKE SUFFICIENT PROGRESS THROUGH SUNRISE
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND THEN MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA DURING THE
DAYTIME. WINDS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI THIS AM ARE RATHER
ROBUST WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS. HOWEVER...AS THE ASSOCIATED
LOW TREKS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN
INTO CANADA THIS MORNING PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD LIGHTEN. SO
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR WINDS...ALBEIT BREEZY AND GUSTY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY. ON THE FLIP SIDE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST (GENERALLY SOUTH
OF A TROY TO CRAWFORD LINE) FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT WITH A LITTLE
LINGERING MOISTURE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...THE FAR NORTHWEST
HAS ALREADY SEE THEIR CALENDAR DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST
PART AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STEADY UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THEN FALL SOME AND MAYBE GO BACK UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON AT BEST WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL EFFECTS.
THE I20 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE ONLY MINIMAL WARMING TODAY AND THE I85
CORRIDOR SHOULD 10 DEGREES OR SO. THINGS SHOULD COOL OFF NICELY
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT...BUT SOME NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STICK
AROUND FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MOST PART ABOVE FREEZING.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER AT BRINGING
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY DAYTIME ON
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT MAY BE ALL WE GET WITH THIS
ONE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT MODERATING
OF TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK RIPPLES TO THE NORTH IN THE UPPER
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO SCRAPE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
IN EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING. SO FOR MOST...NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SW AT 10-12 KTS THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS THRU LATER TODAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
W/NW.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  35  54  34  53 /  10  10  10  20  10
ANNISTON    67  38  55  36  54 /  10  10  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  64  40  56  37  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  38  57  35  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      65  40  57  37  55 /  10  10  20  20  10
AUBURN      71  43  56  39  54 /  10  10  20  60  10
MONTGOMERY  72  41  59  37  59 /  10  10  20  40  10
TROY        74  41  58  37  57 /  10  10  30  60  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 241041
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
441 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD MAKE SUFFICIENT PROGRESS THROUGH SUNRISE
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND THEN MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA DURING THE
DAYTIME. WINDS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI THIS AM ARE RATHER
ROBUST WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS. HOWEVER...AS THE ASSOCIATED
LOW TREKS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN
INTO CANADA THIS MORNING PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD LIGHTEN. SO
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR WINDS...ALBEIT BREEZY AND GUSTY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY. ON THE FLIP SIDE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST (GENERALLY SOUTH
OF A TROY TO CRAWFORD LINE) FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT WITH A LITTLE
LINGERING MOISTURE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...THE FAR NORTHWEST
HAS ALREADY SEE THEIR CALENDAR DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST
PART AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STEADY UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THEN FALL SOME AND MAYBE GO BACK UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON AT BEST WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL EFFECTS.
THE I20 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE ONLY MINIMAL WARMING TODAY AND THE I85
CORRIDOR SHOULD 10 DEGREES OR SO. THINGS SHOULD COOL OFF NICELY
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT...BUT SOME NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STICK
AROUND FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MOST PART ABOVE FREEZING.

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER AT BRINGING
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY DAYTIME ON
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT MAY BE ALL WE GET WITH THIS
ONE.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT MODERATING
OF TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK RIPPLES TO THE NORTH IN THE UPPER
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR TWO TO SCRAPE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
IN EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING. SO FOR MOST...NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DRY.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS ARE BACK IN THE AREA WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IN PLACE
FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FOR THE
NIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE-SPREAD IFR VIS ISSUES. MODELS HAVE
REALLY HIT HARD AT NOW IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE FRONT NOT MAKING IT INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL 12Z...THAT SEEMS SENSIBLE. SO ADDED IN IFR
FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT TCL AND MGM. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW IN
WHICH MGM DROPS BUT NOT LONG. SLOW CLEARING OF THE MVFR CIGS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH EVENTUAL VFR CIGS BY AFTER 18Z AS THE
FRONT CLEARS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  35  54  34  53 /  10  10  10  20  10
ANNISTON    67  38  55  36  54 /  10  10  20  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  64  40  56  37  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  64  38  57  35  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      65  40  57  37  55 /  10  10  20  20  10
AUBURN      71  43  56  39  54 /  10  10  20  60  10
MONTGOMERY  72  41  59  37  59 /  10  10  20  40  10
TROY        74  41  58  37  57 /  10  10  30  60  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16






000
FXUS64 KBMX 240541
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES STATES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS RELATIVELY HIGH AND INCREASE CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL BASICALLY CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
BE STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...AND HAVE RAISED
OVERNIGHT LOWS AREAWIDE. DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...HAVE
KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS CAUSING
OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS ARE BACK IN THE AREA WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IN PLACE
FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FOR THE
NIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE-SPREAD IFR VIS ISSUES. MODELS HAVE
REALLY HIT HARD AT NOW IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE FRONT NOT MAKING IT INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL 12Z...THAT SEEMS SENSIBLE. SO ADDED IN IFR
FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT TCL AND MGM. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW IN
WHICH MGM DROPS BUT NOT LONG. SLOW CLEARING OF THE MVFR CIGS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH EVENTUAL VFR CIGS BY AFTER 18Z AS THE
FRONT CLEARS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 240541
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES STATES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS RELATIVELY HIGH AND INCREASE CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL BASICALLY CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
BE STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...AND HAVE RAISED
OVERNIGHT LOWS AREAWIDE. DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...HAVE
KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS CAUSING
OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS ARE BACK IN THE AREA WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IN PLACE
FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FOR THE
NIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE-SPREAD IFR VIS ISSUES. MODELS HAVE
REALLY HIT HARD AT NOW IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE FRONT NOT MAKING IT INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL 12Z...THAT SEEMS SENSIBLE. SO ADDED IN IFR
FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT TCL AND MGM. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW IN
WHICH MGM DROPS BUT NOT LONG. SLOW CLEARING OF THE MVFR CIGS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH EVENTUAL VFR CIGS BY AFTER 18Z AS THE
FRONT CLEARS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 240327
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
927 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES STATES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS RELATIVELY HIGH AND INCREASE CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL BASICALLY CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
BE STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...AND HAVE RAISED
OVERNIGHT LOWS AREAWIDE. DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...HAVE
KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS CAUSING
OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SQUALL LINE HAS EXITED STAGE RIGHT AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS NOW
SWINGING THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING IN WHICH SKIES AR VFR BEFORE SOME LOWER CLOUDS BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BRISK FOR THE NIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE-SPREAD IFR VIS
ISSUES. IN FACT ONLY LOCATION IN WHICH IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WILL
BE AT TOI AFTER 8Z. SLOW CLEARING OF THE MVFR CIGS TOMORROW WITH
EVENTUAL VFR CIGS BY AFTER 18Z.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  64  34  54  32 /  20  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    60  67  37  56  35 /  10  10  10  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  61  65  39  56  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  60  64  38  58  34 /  10  10   0   0  10
CALERA      62  64  38  57  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      60  70  41  56  38 /  10  10   0  10  40
MONTGOMERY  61  72  40  59  35 /  10  10   0  10  20
TROY        62  74  41  58  35 /  10  10   0  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 240327
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
927 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES STATES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS RELATIVELY HIGH AND INCREASE CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL BASICALLY CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
BE STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...AND HAVE RAISED
OVERNIGHT LOWS AREAWIDE. DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...HAVE
KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS CAUSING
OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SQUALL LINE HAS EXITED STAGE RIGHT AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS NOW
SWINGING THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING IN WHICH SKIES AR VFR BEFORE SOME LOWER CLOUDS BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BRISK FOR THE NIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE-SPREAD IFR VIS
ISSUES. IN FACT ONLY LOCATION IN WHICH IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WILL
BE AT TOI AFTER 8Z. SLOW CLEARING OF THE MVFR CIGS TOMORROW WITH
EVENTUAL VFR CIGS BY AFTER 18Z.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  64  34  54  32 /  20  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    60  67  37  56  35 /  10  10  10  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  61  65  39  56  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  60  64  38  58  34 /  10  10   0   0  10
CALERA      62  64  38  57  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      60  70  41  56  38 /  10  10   0  10  40
MONTGOMERY  61  72  40  59  35 /  10  10   0  10  20
TROY        62  74  41  58  35 /  10  10   0  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 240327
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
927 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES STATES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS RELATIVELY HIGH AND INCREASE CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL BASICALLY CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
BE STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...AND HAVE RAISED
OVERNIGHT LOWS AREAWIDE. DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...HAVE
KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS CAUSING
OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SQUALL LINE HAS EXITED STAGE RIGHT AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS NOW
SWINGING THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING IN WHICH SKIES AR VFR BEFORE SOME LOWER CLOUDS BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BRISK FOR THE NIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE-SPREAD IFR VIS
ISSUES. IN FACT ONLY LOCATION IN WHICH IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WILL
BE AT TOI AFTER 8Z. SLOW CLEARING OF THE MVFR CIGS TOMORROW WITH
EVENTUAL VFR CIGS BY AFTER 18Z.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  64  34  54  32 /  20  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    60  67  37  56  35 /  10  10  10  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  61  65  39  56  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  60  64  38  58  34 /  10  10   0   0  10
CALERA      62  64  38  57  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      60  70  41  56  38 /  10  10   0  10  40
MONTGOMERY  61  72  40  59  35 /  10  10   0  10  20
TROY        62  74  41  58  35 /  10  10   0  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 232335
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
535 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WHICH BROUGHT THE RAINFALL AND THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA IS CONTINUING TO LIFT ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI IS ALSO LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. DRIER AIR
IS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST AND RAINFALL OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA IS EXPECTED TO END BY 00Z. SOME LINGERING RAIN OVER THE
NORTHWEST MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW SPINS CLOSE TO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS...A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL THEN BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE GETS PULLED BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH.
THIS IS MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR GA AND FL AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND RACES UP THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.

THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK VERY NICE AT THIS
TIME. UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN
SHOWING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE I THINK NOTHING MORE THAN
A FEW CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SQUALL LINE HAS EXITED STAGE RIGHT AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS NOW
SWINGING THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING IN WHICH SKIES AR VFR BEFORE SOME LOWER CLOUDS BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BRISK FOR THE NIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE-SPREAD IFR VIS
ISSUES. IN FACT ONLY LOCATION IN WHICH IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WILL
BE AT TOI AFTER 8Z. SLOW CLEARING OF THE MVFR CIGS TOMORROW WITH
EVENTUAL VFR CIGS BY AFTER 18Z.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 232335
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
535 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WHICH BROUGHT THE RAINFALL AND THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA IS CONTINUING TO LIFT ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI IS ALSO LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. DRIER AIR
IS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST AND RAINFALL OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA IS EXPECTED TO END BY 00Z. SOME LINGERING RAIN OVER THE
NORTHWEST MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW SPINS CLOSE TO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS...A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL THEN BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE GETS PULLED BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH.
THIS IS MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR GA AND FL AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND RACES UP THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.

THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK VERY NICE AT THIS
TIME. UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN
SHOWING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE I THINK NOTHING MORE THAN
A FEW CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SQUALL LINE HAS EXITED STAGE RIGHT AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS NOW
SWINGING THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING IN WHICH SKIES AR VFR BEFORE SOME LOWER CLOUDS BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BRISK FOR THE NIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDE-SPREAD IFR VIS
ISSUES. IN FACT ONLY LOCATION IN WHICH IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WILL
BE AT TOI AFTER 8Z. SLOW CLEARING OF THE MVFR CIGS TOMORROW WITH
EVENTUAL VFR CIGS BY AFTER 18Z.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 232044
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
244 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WHICH BROUGHT THE RAINFALL AND THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA IS CONTINUING TO LIFT ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI IS ALSO LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. DRIER AIR
IS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST AND RAINFALL OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA IS EXPECTED TO END BY 00Z. SOME LINGERING RAIN OVER THE
NORTHWEST MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW SPINS CLOSE TO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS...A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL THEN BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE GETS PULLED BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH.
THIS IS MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR GA AND FL AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND RACES UP THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.

THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK VERY NICE AT THIS
TIME. UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN
SHOWING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE I THINK NOTHING MORE THAN
A FEW CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL
ALABAMA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...REDUCING VIS TO LIFR AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...CIGS ARE IFR TO MVFR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
RAIN PUSHES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TIMED THE BACK EDGE OF THE
RAIN SHIELD COMING ACROSS EAST MS TO APPROXIMATE RAIN ENDING TIMES
AT TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE LIGHT RAINFALL BEHIND THIS
LINE...BUT CURRENT TRACK AS IT MOVING NORTH OF ALL TERMINALS. THERE
MIGHT BE A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS AS RAIN ENDS...BUT LOW STRATUS WILL
RETURN THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS...EXPECT FOG
TO DEVELOP AS WELL...MIGHT HAVE TO ADJUST VIS DOWN BELOW MVFR.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT
ALL TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION IS ANB WHERE EASTERLY WINDS HAVE
PERSISTED TODAY...AND A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS
AROUND 10KTS. AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING...CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT. HOWEVER...KEPT MVFR CIGS IN THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z. HAVE INTRODUCED 12-15KT WINDS FOR MONDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING HIGHER GUSTS AND THESE VALUES COULD BE INCREASED
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  64  34  54  32 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    54  67  37  56  35 /  10  10  10  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  56  65  39  56  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  64  38  58  34 /  10  10   0   0  10
CALERA      54  64  38  57  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      58  70  41  56  38 /  10  10   0  10  40
MONTGOMERY  57  72  40  59  35 /  10  10   0  10  20
TROY        57  74  41  58  35 /  10  10   0  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 232044
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
244 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WHICH BROUGHT THE RAINFALL AND THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA IS CONTINUING TO LIFT ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI IS ALSO LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. DRIER AIR
IS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST AND RAINFALL OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA IS EXPECTED TO END BY 00Z. SOME LINGERING RAIN OVER THE
NORTHWEST MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW SPINS CLOSE TO THE AREA.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS...A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL THEN BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE GETS PULLED BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH.
THIS IS MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR GA AND FL AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND RACES UP THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.

THANKSGIVING DAY AND THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOK VERY NICE AT THIS
TIME. UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN
SHOWING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE I THINK NOTHING MORE THAN
A FEW CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL
ALABAMA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...REDUCING VIS TO LIFR AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...CIGS ARE IFR TO MVFR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
RAIN PUSHES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TIMED THE BACK EDGE OF THE
RAIN SHIELD COMING ACROSS EAST MS TO APPROXIMATE RAIN ENDING TIMES
AT TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE LIGHT RAINFALL BEHIND THIS
LINE...BUT CURRENT TRACK AS IT MOVING NORTH OF ALL TERMINALS. THERE
MIGHT BE A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS AS RAIN ENDS...BUT LOW STRATUS WILL
RETURN THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS...EXPECT FOG
TO DEVELOP AS WELL...MIGHT HAVE TO ADJUST VIS DOWN BELOW MVFR.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT
ALL TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION IS ANB WHERE EASTERLY WINDS HAVE
PERSISTED TODAY...AND A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS
AROUND 10KTS. AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING...CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT. HOWEVER...KEPT MVFR CIGS IN THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z. HAVE INTRODUCED 12-15KT WINDS FOR MONDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING HIGHER GUSTS AND THESE VALUES COULD BE INCREASED
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  64  34  54  32 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    54  67  37  56  35 /  10  10  10  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  56  65  39  56  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  64  38  58  34 /  10  10   0   0  10
CALERA      54  64  38  57  36 /  10  10   0  10  10
AUBURN      58  70  41  56  38 /  10  10   0  10  40
MONTGOMERY  57  72  40  59  35 /  10  10   0  10  20
TROY        57  74  41  58  35 /  10  10   0  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 231758 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1158 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. SEEN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
LAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. NOT CERTAIN HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE WARM FRONT
IS STILL TO OUR SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...A WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EAST TO WEST ALONG THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA STATE LINE
BEFORE ANGLING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR EVERGREEN TOWARD MERIDIAN.
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS LINE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. TO THE NORTH...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S COOL TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ON RADAR...A
CONVECTIVE BAND...ARCHING FROM NEAR MERIDIAN SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD TO
PENSACOLA FL...IS MOVING TO THE NNE. DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE LOW 60S
BEHIND THIS BAND...AND THERE IS A WIND SHIFT FROM SSE TO SSW BEHIND
THE LINE. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR EFFECTIVE DRYLINE.

AS THIS CONVECTIVE BAND ROTATES TO THE NNE...IT WILL PUSH THE MOIST
AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
OCCUR IN BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND THE CONVECTIVE
BAND MOVING NNE INTO THE AREA. GENERAL TIMING...HAS THE CONVECTIVE
BAND NEAR MONTGOMERY BETWEEN 12-2PM. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW
QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...HARD TO DETERMINE HOW
NARROW OR WIDE A CORRIDOR OF INSTABLITY WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.

WILL BE WATCHING DEWPOINTS CLOSELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA TO ASSESS ANY CHANGES TO HAZARDS AND THE FORECAST.
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND A STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL
ALABAMA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...REDUCING VIS TO LIFR AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...CIGS ARE IFR TO MVFR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
RAIN PUSHES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TIMED THE BACK EDGE OF THE
RAIN SHIELD COMING ACROSS EAST MS TO APPROXIMATE RAIN ENDING TIMES
AT TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE LIGHT RAINFALL BEHIND THIS
LINE...BUT CURRENT TRACK AS IT MOVING NORTH OF ALL TERMINALS. THERE
MIGHT BE A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS AS RAIN ENDS...BUT LOW STRATUS WILL
RETURN THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS...EXPECT FOG
TO DEVELOP AS WELL...MIGHT HAVE TO ADJUST VIS DOWN BELOW MVFR.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT
ALL TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION IS ANB WHERE EASTERLY WINDS HAVE
PERSISTED TODAY...AND A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS
AROUND 10KTS. AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING...CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT. HOWEVER...KEPT MVFR CIGS IN THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z. HAVE INTRODUCED 12-15KT WINDS FOR MONDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING HIGHER GUSTS AND THESE VALUES COULD BE INCREASED
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 635 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE OF THE GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO PUSH BACK THE
TIME OF SEVERE POTENTIAL A LITTLE TO 10AM-6PM. THE MORE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO COME IN TO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. THINK THAT THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS AIDED IN THIS NON
TRANSITION AS OF YET. SO HAVE ADJUSTED TS POTENTIAL BY A FEW HOURS.
HAVE ALSO REFRESHED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS WHILE AT IT. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 456 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT YESTERDAY STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD HAS NOW MOVED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WE STILL HAVE A GENERALLY EAST FLOW. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE WAS SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE
DATA INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY GIVING A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
THEN INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND HAS
STARTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHOULD MOVE IT INTO NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND INTO
MISSOURI/WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE LOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO PULL WARMER/MOIST AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND INTO GEORGIA WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THEN LATER THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE EARLY MORNING WITH STILL
EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TRANSITIONING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST
TRENDS IN MODEL DATA ARE FOCUSING IN OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AS THE DRY LINE MOVES
ACROSS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT A WINDOW OF 7AM TO
4PM...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE 11AM THROUGH 4PM...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE...BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY BEFORE
THAT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD QUICKER AND WE GET CELLS FIRING UP AHEAD OF
THE LINE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE
ARRIVAL WILL OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND
EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES
REACH. WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY POTENTIAL FOR ARRIVAL...WE SHOULD
NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM GETTING THE REQUIRED INSTABILITY.
AGAIN...THINK HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND MORE LOCALLY
STORM INFLUENCED AS THE LINE SHOULD MOVE AND NOT LINGER.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH STILL
DRY...THE LATEST MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT MAY
STALL AND FIZZLE OUT. NO MAJOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  53  61  35  53 / 100  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    64  54  63  37  54 / 100  30  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  55  62  38  54 / 100  30  20   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  53  62  37  57 / 100  20  10   0   0
CALERA      67  55  63  38  55 / 100  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      66  59  68  41  56 / 100  30  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  71  58  69  40  58 / 100  20  10   0  10
TROY        72  57  71  40  57 / 100  20  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/58












000
FXUS64 KBMX 231758 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1158 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. SEEN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
LAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. NOT CERTAIN HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE WARM FRONT
IS STILL TO OUR SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...A WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EAST TO WEST ALONG THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA STATE LINE
BEFORE ANGLING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR EVERGREEN TOWARD MERIDIAN.
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS LINE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. TO THE NORTH...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S COOL TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ON RADAR...A
CONVECTIVE BAND...ARCHING FROM NEAR MERIDIAN SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD TO
PENSACOLA FL...IS MOVING TO THE NNE. DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE LOW 60S
BEHIND THIS BAND...AND THERE IS A WIND SHIFT FROM SSE TO SSW BEHIND
THE LINE. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR EFFECTIVE DRYLINE.

AS THIS CONVECTIVE BAND ROTATES TO THE NNE...IT WILL PUSH THE MOIST
AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
OCCUR IN BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND THE CONVECTIVE
BAND MOVING NNE INTO THE AREA. GENERAL TIMING...HAS THE CONVECTIVE
BAND NEAR MONTGOMERY BETWEEN 12-2PM. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW
QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...HARD TO DETERMINE HOW
NARROW OR WIDE A CORRIDOR OF INSTABLITY WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.

WILL BE WATCHING DEWPOINTS CLOSELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA TO ASSESS ANY CHANGES TO HAZARDS AND THE FORECAST.
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND A STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL
ALABAMA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...REDUCING VIS TO LIFR AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...CIGS ARE IFR TO MVFR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
RAIN PUSHES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TIMED THE BACK EDGE OF THE
RAIN SHIELD COMING ACROSS EAST MS TO APPROXIMATE RAIN ENDING TIMES
AT TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE LIGHT RAINFALL BEHIND THIS
LINE...BUT CURRENT TRACK AS IT MOVING NORTH OF ALL TERMINALS. THERE
MIGHT BE A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS AS RAIN ENDS...BUT LOW STRATUS WILL
RETURN THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS...EXPECT FOG
TO DEVELOP AS WELL...MIGHT HAVE TO ADJUST VIS DOWN BELOW MVFR.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT
ALL TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION IS ANB WHERE EASTERLY WINDS HAVE
PERSISTED TODAY...AND A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS
AROUND 10KTS. AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING...CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT. HOWEVER...KEPT MVFR CIGS IN THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z. HAVE INTRODUCED 12-15KT WINDS FOR MONDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING HIGHER GUSTS AND THESE VALUES COULD BE INCREASED
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 635 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE OF THE GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO PUSH BACK THE
TIME OF SEVERE POTENTIAL A LITTLE TO 10AM-6PM. THE MORE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO COME IN TO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. THINK THAT THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS AIDED IN THIS NON
TRANSITION AS OF YET. SO HAVE ADJUSTED TS POTENTIAL BY A FEW HOURS.
HAVE ALSO REFRESHED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS WHILE AT IT. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 456 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT YESTERDAY STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD HAS NOW MOVED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WE STILL HAVE A GENERALLY EAST FLOW. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE WAS SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE
DATA INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY GIVING A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
THEN INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND HAS
STARTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHOULD MOVE IT INTO NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND INTO
MISSOURI/WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE LOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO PULL WARMER/MOIST AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND INTO GEORGIA WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THEN LATER THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE EARLY MORNING WITH STILL
EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TRANSITIONING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST
TRENDS IN MODEL DATA ARE FOCUSING IN OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AS THE DRY LINE MOVES
ACROSS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT A WINDOW OF 7AM TO
4PM...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE 11AM THROUGH 4PM...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE...BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY BEFORE
THAT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD QUICKER AND WE GET CELLS FIRING UP AHEAD OF
THE LINE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE
ARRIVAL WILL OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND
EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES
REACH. WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY POTENTIAL FOR ARRIVAL...WE SHOULD
NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM GETTING THE REQUIRED INSTABILITY.
AGAIN...THINK HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND MORE LOCALLY
STORM INFLUENCED AS THE LINE SHOULD MOVE AND NOT LINGER.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH STILL
DRY...THE LATEST MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT MAY
STALL AND FIZZLE OUT. NO MAJOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  53  61  35  53 / 100  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    64  54  63  37  54 / 100  30  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  55  62  38  54 / 100  30  20   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  53  62  37  57 / 100  20  10   0   0
CALERA      67  55  63  38  55 / 100  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      66  59  68  41  56 / 100  30  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  71  58  69  40  58 / 100  20  10   0  10
TROY        72  57  71  40  57 / 100  20  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/58













000
FXUS64 KBMX 231651 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1051 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING DISCUSSION

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. SEEN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
LAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. NOT CERTAIN HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE WARM FRONT
IS STILL TO OUR SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...A WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EAST TO WEST ALONG THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA STATE LINE
BEFORE ANGLING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR EVERGREEN TOWARD MERIDIAN.
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS LINE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. TO THE NORTH...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S COOL TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ON RADAR...A
CONVECTIVE BAND...ARCHING FROM NEAR MERIDIAN SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD TO
PENSACOLA FL...IS MOVING TO THE NNE. DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE LOW 60S
BEHIND THIS BAND...AND THERE IS A WIND SHIFT FROM SSE TO SSW BEHIND
THE LINE. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR EFFECTIVE DRYLINE.

AS THIS CONVECTIVE BAND ROTATES TO THE NNE...IT WILL PUSH THE MOIST
AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
OCCUR IN BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND THE CONVECTIVE
BAND MOVING NNE INTO THE AREA. GENERAL TIMING...HAS THE CONVECTIVE
BAND NEAR MONTGOMERY BETWEEN 12-2PM. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW
QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...HARD TO DETERMINE HOW
NARROW OR WIDE A CORRIDOR OF INSTABLITY WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.

WILL BE WATCHING DEWPOINTS CLOSELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA TO ASSESS ANY CHANGES TO HAZARDS AND THE FORECAST.
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND A STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 635 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE OF THE GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO PUSH BACK THE
TIME OF SEVERE POTENTIAL A LITTLE TO 10AM-6PM. THE MORE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO COME IN TO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. THINK THAT THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS AIDED IN THIS NON
TRANSITION AS OF YET. SO HAVE ADJUSTED TS POTENTIAL BY A FEW HOURS.
HAVE ALSO REFRESHED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS WHILE AT IT. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE WITH IFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS BY
18Z AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...AND THEN STABILIZES AGAIN
AFTER 00Z WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. EASTERLY FLOW THRU 18Z WILL
KEEP THE AIR MASS STABLE...WITH THE WARM FRONT REMAINING NEAR THE
GULF COAST. REMOVED TSTM CHANCES BEFORE 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES AND
EXPECT SCT SHRWS. DUE TO THE EASTERLY SFC FLOW...CIGS WILL LIKELY
STAY BELOW 1000 FEET UNTIL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. BY 18Z...THE
SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 18Z AND REMAIN
IN THIS RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z AT ALL
TAF SITES. AFTER 00Z...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT FOR VCSH AFTER 00Z. FOR NOW KEPT CIGS IN THE MVFR
RANGE AFTER 00Z...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY CIGS COULD FALL BELOW
1000 FEET DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 456 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT YESTERDAY STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD HAS NOW MOVED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WE STILL HAVE A GENERALLY EAST FLOW. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE WAS SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE
DATA INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY GIVING A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
THEN INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND HAS
STARTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHOULD MOVE IT INTO NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND INTO
MISSOURI/WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE LOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO PULL WARMER/MOIST AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND INTO GEORGIA WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THEN LATER THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE EARLY MORNING WITH STILL
EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TRANSITIONING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST
TRENDS IN MODEL DATA ARE FOCUSING IN OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AS THE DRY LINE MOVES
ACROSS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT A WINDOW OF 7AM TO
4PM...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE 11AM THROUGH 4PM...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE...BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY BEFORE
THAT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD QUICKER AND WE GET CELLS FIRING UP AHEAD OF
THE LINE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE
ARRIVAL WILL OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND
EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES
REACH. WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY POTENTIAL FOR ARRIVAL...WE SHOULD
NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM GETTING THE REQUIRED INSTABILITY.
AGAIN...THINK HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND MORE LOCALLY
STORM INFLUENCED AS THE LINE SHOULD MOVE AND NOT LINGER.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH STILL
DRY...THE LATEST MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT MAY
STALL AND FIZZLE OUT. NO MAJOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  53  61  35  53 / 100  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    64  54  63  37  54 / 100  30  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  55  62  38  54 / 100  30  20   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  53  62  37  57 / 100  20  10   0   0
CALERA      67  55  63  38  55 / 100  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      66  59  68  41  56 / 100  30  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  71  58  69  40  58 / 100  20  10   0  10
TROY        72  57  71  40  57 / 100  20  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/58









000
FXUS64 KBMX 231651 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1051 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING DISCUSSION

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. SEEN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
LAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. NOT CERTAIN HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE WARM FRONT
IS STILL TO OUR SOUTH. LOOKING AT THE 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...A WARM
FRONT STRETCHES EAST TO WEST ALONG THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA STATE LINE
BEFORE ANGLING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR EVERGREEN TOWARD MERIDIAN.
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS LINE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. TO THE NORTH...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S COOL TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ON RADAR...A
CONVECTIVE BAND...ARCHING FROM NEAR MERIDIAN SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD TO
PENSACOLA FL...IS MOVING TO THE NNE. DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE LOW 60S
BEHIND THIS BAND...AND THERE IS A WIND SHIFT FROM SSE TO SSW BEHIND
THE LINE. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR EFFECTIVE DRYLINE.

AS THIS CONVECTIVE BAND ROTATES TO THE NNE...IT WILL PUSH THE MOIST
AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
OCCUR IN BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND THE CONVECTIVE
BAND MOVING NNE INTO THE AREA. GENERAL TIMING...HAS THE CONVECTIVE
BAND NEAR MONTGOMERY BETWEEN 12-2PM. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW
QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...HARD TO DETERMINE HOW
NARROW OR WIDE A CORRIDOR OF INSTABLITY WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.

WILL BE WATCHING DEWPOINTS CLOSELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA TO ASSESS ANY CHANGES TO HAZARDS AND THE FORECAST.
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND A STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 635 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE OF THE GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO PUSH BACK THE
TIME OF SEVERE POTENTIAL A LITTLE TO 10AM-6PM. THE MORE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO COME IN TO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. THINK THAT THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS AIDED IN THIS NON
TRANSITION AS OF YET. SO HAVE ADJUSTED TS POTENTIAL BY A FEW HOURS.
HAVE ALSO REFRESHED HOURLY TEMPS/DEW POINTS WHILE AT IT. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE WITH IFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS BY
18Z AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...AND THEN STABILIZES AGAIN
AFTER 00Z WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. EASTERLY FLOW THRU 18Z WILL
KEEP THE AIR MASS STABLE...WITH THE WARM FRONT REMAINING NEAR THE
GULF COAST. REMOVED TSTM CHANCES BEFORE 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES AND
EXPECT SCT SHRWS. DUE TO THE EASTERLY SFC FLOW...CIGS WILL LIKELY
STAY BELOW 1000 FEET UNTIL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. BY 18Z...THE
SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 18Z AND REMAIN
IN THIS RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z AT ALL
TAF SITES. AFTER 00Z...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT FOR VCSH AFTER 00Z. FOR NOW KEPT CIGS IN THE MVFR
RANGE AFTER 00Z...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY CIGS COULD FALL BELOW
1000 FEET DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

58/ROSE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 456 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

THIS MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT YESTERDAY STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD HAS NOW MOVED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA WE STILL HAVE A GENERALLY EAST FLOW. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE WAS SWINGING ACROSS TEXAS. LATEST SATELLITE
DATA INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY GIVING A
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
THEN INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND HAS
STARTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHOULD MOVE IT INTO NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND INTO
MISSOURI/WESTERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE LOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO PULL WARMER/MOIST AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND INTO GEORGIA WELL AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THROUGH BEHIND IT TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THEN LATER THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE EARLY MORNING WITH STILL
EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WE SHOULD BEGIN
TRANSITIONING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LATEST
TRENDS IN MODEL DATA ARE FOCUSING IN OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AS THE DRY LINE MOVES
ACROSS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT A WINDOW OF 7AM TO
4PM...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE 11AM THROUGH 4PM...CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE...BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY BEFORE
THAT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD QUICKER AND WE GET CELLS FIRING UP AHEAD OF
THE LINE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG BEFORE OUR DRY LINE
ARRIVAL WILL OUR SURFACE FLOW GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN REALIZING OUR INSTABILITY POTENTIAL AND
EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES
REACH. WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY POTENTIAL FOR ARRIVAL...WE SHOULD
NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM GETTING THE REQUIRED INSTABILITY.
AGAIN...THINK HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND MORE LOCALLY
STORM INFLUENCED AS THE LINE SHOULD MOVE AND NOT LINGER.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH STILL
DRY...THE LATEST MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT MAY
STALL AND FIZZLE OUT. NO MAJOR TEMPERATURES CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  53  61  35  53 / 100  30  20  10  10
ANNISTON    64  54  63  37  54 / 100  30  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  55  62  38  54 / 100  30  20   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  53  62  37  57 / 100  20  10   0   0
CALERA      67  55  63  38  55 / 100  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      66  59  68  41  56 / 100  30  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  71  58  69  40  58 / 100  20  10   0  10
TROY        72  57  71  40  57 / 100  20  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/58










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