000
FXUS64 KBMX 220028
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
728 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS A PAIR OF (OR THREE)
BIG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THEIR LEADING EDGES. THE
FIRST BOUNDARY WAS IN EASTERN TN...ABOUT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. THE TRAILING SOUTHERN EDGE OF THAT BOUNDARY MAY BE
LINGERING NEAR THE TN/AL STATE LINE. THE OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN IL SOUTHWARD...INTERSECTING THE FIRST
BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF MEMPHIS...AND THEN ARCING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST NORTHERN LA AND EASTERN TX. THAT LATTER BOUNDARY IS
ACTUALLY A MERGER OF TWO THAT EARLIER WERE A BIT MORE DISCRETE.
EACH BOUNDARY HAD A PRETTY WELL DEFINED MESO-HIGH BEHIND IT
HELPING TO PUSH IT ALONG.
THE BIG QUESTION OF COURSE IS WHETHER THE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE. AND IF
SO...THEN HOW FAR AND HOW STRONG? SPC MESOSCALE PARAMETERS STILL
SHOW A GOOD BIT OF INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE
ONGOING LINE OF STORMS...IN THE FORM OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR...HOWEVER...REALLY IS LACKING (WITH
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WELL BELOW 30 KTS...AND 0-1 KM SHEAR LESS THAN
10 KTS). THUS...EVEN IF THE STORMS WERE ABLE TO CONTINUE ON AND
REACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA...THEY SHOULD BE/REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS BY THE TIME THEY GET HERE. IF THEY ARE ABLE TO HOLD
TOGETHER...A RULE OF THUMB ANALYSIS PUTS THE LINE OF STORMS AT
MARION COUNTY BETWEEN 10 AND 11 PM.
ASSUMING CONDITIONS DON`T CHANGE DRASTICALLY...FOR THE EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WILL BE TO BUMP UP THE TIMING
(BY ABOUT 3 HOURS) ON THE CHANCES OF STORMS INTO THE WEST. I THINK
HIGH CHANCE POPS (40-50 PERCENT) ARE STILL JUSTIFIED FOR
NOW...ALTHOUGH I MAY EXPAND THE AREA OF CHANCE POPS EASTWARD JUST
A BIT (PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS JASPER AND TUSCALOOSA). OTHER
FORECAST ELEMENTS (INCLUDING DEW POINTS) LOOK FINE AT THIS POINT.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AT THIS TIME...CURRENT THINKING...AND WITH MODEL CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE LINE WILL DETERIORATE AS IT MOVES SE TOWARD C AL INTO
LESS FAVORABLE AREA OF SOMEWHAT WEAKEN BUT STILL HIGH PRESSURE.
ALSO...WITH SUNSET STORMS SHOULD LOSE SOME OF THEIR PUNCH. SO WITH
THAT SAID...WILL LEAVE OUT FOR TONIGHT FOR C AL TAFS AS
PROBABILITY IS LOW THAT THIS LINE WILL MAKE IT...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING FOR SIGNS THAT STORMS
COULD HOLD TOGETHER. FOR NOW...NOT EXPECTING CONVECTION TILL WED
AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH ONLY VCTS/VCSH FOR NOW...
WITH BEST CHANCES NRN TAFS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED MVFR CIG/VIS IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...THINK THAT MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE
VFR WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
08
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 212354 AAA
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
654 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AT THIS TIME...CURRENT THINKING...AND WITH MODEL CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE LINE WILL DETERIORATE AS IT MOVES SE TOWARD C AL INTO
LESS FAVORABLE AREA OF SOMEWHAT WEAKEN BUT STILL HIGH PRESSURE.
ALSO...WITH SUNSET STORMS SHOULD LOSE SOME OF THEIR PUNCH. SO WITH
THAT SAID...WILL LEAVE OUT FOR TONIGHT FOR C AL TAFS AS
PROBABILITY IS LOW THAT THIS LINE WILL MAKE IT...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING FOR SIGNS THAT STORMS
COULD HOLD TOGETHER. FOR NOW...NOT EXPECTING CONVECTION TILL WED
AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH ONLY VCTS/VCSH FOR NOW...
WITH BEST CHANCES NRN TAFS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED MVFR CIG/VIS IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...THINK THAT MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE
VFR WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
08
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE 24 TO 48 HOURS AS A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. TAKING A LOOK AT
ALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. NOW THE RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. RIGHT NOW BASED ON SAT...THE RIDGE IS OVER MOST
OF MS AND MOST OF ALABAMA. ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE...YOU CAN
SEE THE RING OF FIRE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EAST.
NOW AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING...WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ONGOING IN MS CONTINUE TO
SLIDE NE AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA. AS THE FRONT SLIDES FURTHER EAST
AND THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST...THERE IS ONE MODEL...THE HRRR...THAT
DEVELOPS A MCS IN ARKANSAS AND THEN SLIDES IT EAST THROUGH CENTRAL
MS AND WORKS INTO THE WEST BY 2 OR 3 AM. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCREASE POPS IN THE WEST TO AT LEAST CHANCE WITH THE FRONT SLIDING
EAST. NOW THE QUESTION IS TO WHAT EXTENT IS THE SEVERITY THREAT
TONIGHT. AS STATED EARLIER THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE KEEPING
THE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION TO THE RULE
BEING THE HRRR. WITH THE 16Z RUN...THE HRRR STILL BRINGS THE MCS
INTO THE AREA BUT WEAKENS IT QUICKLY AS IT WORKS INTO THE AREA RIGHT
AT 6Z. NAM AND GFS CORFIDI VECTORS SUPPORT THE EASTWARD MOTION
THROUGH MS AND THEN A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WOULD TAKE THE
COLD POOL TO THE SOUTH AS THE MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE RIDGE.
CONCEPTUAL MODELS AGREE THAT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND TAKE THE
PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE.
AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH.
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP THE WEST MORE STABLE AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR THE DAY. THE MAIN DYNAMICS WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND THE LARGER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PARTS NORTH. WE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY IF WE DO
REALIZE THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BEING FORECAST. WOULD EXPECT
ANYTHING SEVERE IN THE EAST TO BE EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO AS WELL. THE MAIN FRONT WILL CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH A SECONDARY PUSH ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE DIFFERENT ON
WHERE THE BEST CHANCES FOR THURSDAY WILL BE...SO JUST WENT LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THE FORECAST. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THIS SECONDARY FRONT
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...GIVING US A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 66 82 63 84 59 / 10 60 40 30 20
ANNISTON 67 85 64 85 60 / 10 50 40 30 20
BIRMINGHAM 68 84 64 85 60 / 10 60 30 30 20
TUSCALOOSA 67 81 63 86 61 / 20 60 30 30 20
CALERA 66 85 65 85 60 / 10 50 40 30 20
AUBURN 67 90 66 85 63 / 10 30 40 30 20
MONTGOMERY 67 90 67 87 65 / 10 30 40 30 20
TROY 67 89 67 86 65 / 10 30 40 30 20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
08/16
000
FXUS64 KBMX 212001
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
301 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE 24 TO 48 HOURS AS A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. TAKING A LOOK AT
ALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. NOW THE RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. RIGHT NOW BASED ON SAT...THE RIDGE IS OVER MOST
OF MS AND MOST OF ALABAMA. ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE...YOU CAN
SEE THE RING OF FIRE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EAST.
NOW AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING...WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ONGOING IN MS CONTINUE TO
SLIDE NE AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA. AS THE FRONT SLIDES FURTHER EAST
AND THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST...THERE IS ONE MODEL...THE HRRR...THAT
DEVELOPS A MCS IN ARKANSAS AND THEN SLIDES IT EAST THROUGH CENTRAL
MS AND WORKS INTO THE WEST BY 2 OR 3 AM. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCREASE POPS IN THE WEST TO AT LEAST CHANCE WITH THE FRONT SLIDING
EAST. NOW THE QUESTION IS TO WHAT EXTENT IS THE SEVERITY THREAT
TONIGHT. AS STATED EARLIER THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE KEEPING
THE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION TO THE RULE
BEING THE HRRR. WITH THE 16Z RUN...THE HRRR STILL BRINGS THE MCS
INTO THE AREA BUT WEAKENS IT QUICKLY AS IT WORKS INTO THE AREA RIGHT
AT 6Z. NAM AND GFS CORFIDI VECTORS SUPPORT THE EASTWARD MOTION
THROUGH MS AND THEN A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WOULD TAKE THE
COLD POOL TO THE SOUTH AS THE MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE RIDGE.
CONCEPTUAL MODELS AGREE THAT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND TAKE THE
PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE.
AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH.
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP THE WEST MORE STABLE AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR THE DAY. THE MAIN DYNAMICS WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND THE LARGER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PARTS NORTH. WE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY IF WE DO
REALIZE THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BEING FORECAST. WOULD EXPECT
ANYTHING SEVERE IN THE EAST TO BE EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO AS WELL. THE MAIN FRONT WILL CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH A SECONDARY PUSH ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE DIFFERENT ON
WHERE THE BEST CHANCES FOR THURSDAY WILL BE...SO JUST WENT LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THE FORECAST. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THIS SECONDARY FRONT
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...GIVING US A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR VIS
POSSIBLE. SOME BKN VFR CEILINGS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH ARRIVES AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY.
88
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 66 82 63 84 59 / 10 60 40 30 20
ANNISTON 67 85 64 85 60 / 10 50 40 30 20
BIRMINGHAM 68 84 64 85 60 / 10 60 30 30 20
TUSCALOOSA 67 81 63 86 61 / 20 60 30 30 20
CALERA 66 85 65 85 60 / 10 50 40 30 20
AUBURN 67 90 66 85 63 / 10 30 40 30 20
MONTGOMERY 67 90 67 87 65 / 10 30 40 30 20
TROY 67 89 67 86 65 / 10 30 40 30 20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 211847
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
147 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
JUST A FEW CHANGES TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...BASED ON HOURLY
TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW
LOWER 90S MIXED IN. RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE
AT THIS TIME. UPDATES ARE OUT.
88
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR VIS
POSSIBLE. SOME BKN VFR CEILINGS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH ARRIVES AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY.
88
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 211521
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1021 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
JUST A FEW CHANGES TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...BASED ON HOURLY
TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW
LOWER 90S MIXED IN. RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE
AT THIS TIME. UPDATES ARE OUT.
88
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE TAF SITES. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN IFR AND ABOVE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
OCCURS. LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH HAVE REACHED
TCL AND WILL LIKELY REACH NORTHWARD INTO THE TOI AND MGM TERMINALS
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...BECOMING CALM BY SUNSET. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINING HIGH...FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE MORNING.
MEANWHILE MID AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
73
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 211131
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
631 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE TAF SITES. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN IFR AND ABOVE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
OCCURS. LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH HAVE REACHED
TCL AND WILL LIKELY REACH NORTHWARD INTO THE TOI AND MGM TERMINALS
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...BECOMING CALM BY SUNSET. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINING HIGH...FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE MORNING.
MEANWHILE MID AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
73
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 440 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. UPPER
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US THIS MORNING.
LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
THE DAKOTAS WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING EASTWARD THRU THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. A LINE OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WAS ONGOING FROM
INDIANA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WHICH
IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A PREFRONTAL TROF WELL
AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT. MEANWHILE UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. STRATUS DECK CAN BE SEEN
SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS MS AND SOUTHERN AL AT THIS HOUR AND WILL
LIKELY PUSH INTO THE SOUTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP CENTRAL
ALABAMA DRY AGAIN TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S.
SFC FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD TODAY BEFORE STALLING WEST OF THE MS RIVER AS IT LOSES ITS
UPPER LEVEL PUSH. THE FOUR CORNERS SHORTWAVE WILL EVENTUALLY PICK UP
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND BRING IT THRU THE FORECAST AREA ON
WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
CWA DUE TO LACK OF UPPER/LOWER JET FEATURES...RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS A LACK OF DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS. THEREFORE STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE KEPT POPS THE HIGHEST AND TEMPS
A BIT LOWER IN THE NW.
INITIAL BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE BY THURSDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL ISO/SCT
ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE THE SOUTH. THE MAIN UPPER TROF
FINALLY PUSHES THRU THURSDAY AFTN/EVNG BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY THRU THE CWA. MODELS AREN`T SHOWING ANY REAL QPF WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT COMES THRU...SO POPS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE FOR
THURSDAY IF THE FIRST BOUNDARY MANAGES TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY BRINGING A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S FRI NIGHT AND WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 60S BY SUN NIGHT.
MODELS DIVERGE A BIT IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING A BIT
MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THAN THE GFS. THE
MORE PRONOUNCED CENTRAL US RIDGE IN THE GFS KEEPS ANY DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WELL TO OUR
NORTH. WHEREAS THE ECMWF...WITH IT`S WEAKER RIDGE...TRIES TO BRING
A COUPLE IMPULSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
FUTURE TRENDS.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 89 66 82 66 84 / 10 10 50 40 20
ANNISTON 88 67 84 65 85 / 10 10 40 40 20
BIRMINGHAM 90 68 83 66 85 / 10 10 50 30 20
TUSCALOOSA 91 67 83 65 86 / 10 10 50 30 20
CALERA 90 66 84 66 85 / 10 10 50 40 20
AUBURN 89 67 85 65 85 / 10 10 20 40 30
MONTGOMERY 92 67 88 67 87 / 10 10 20 40 30
TROY 91 67 89 67 86 / 10 10 20 40 30
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 211101
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
440 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. UPPER
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US THIS MORNING.
LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
THE DAKOTAS WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING EASTWARD THRU THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. A LINE OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WAS ONGOING FROM
INDIANA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WHICH
IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A PREFRONTAL TROF WELL
AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT. MEANWHILE UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. STRATUS DECK CAN BE SEEN
SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS MS AND SOUTHERN AL AT THIS HOUR AND WILL
LIKELY PUSH INTO THE SOUTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP CENTRAL
ALABAMA DRY AGAIN TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S.
SFC FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD TODAY BEFORE STALLING WEST OF THE MS RIVER AS IT LOSES ITS
UPPER LEVEL PUSH. THE FOUR CORNERS SHORTWAVE WILL EVENTUALLY PICK UP
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND BRING IT THRU THE FORECAST AREA ON
WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
CWA DUE TO LACK OF UPPER/LOWER JET FEATURES...RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS A LACK OF DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS. THEREFORE STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE KEPT POPS THE HIGHEST AND TEMPS
A BIT LOWER IN THE NW.
INITIAL BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE BY THURSDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL ISO/SCT
ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE THE SOUTH. THE MAIN UPPER TROF
FINALLY PUSHES THRU THURSDAY AFTN/EVNG BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY THRU THE CWA. MODELS AREN`T SHOWING ANY REAL QPF WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT COMES THRU...SO POPS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE FOR
THURSDAY IF THE FIRST BOUNDARY MANAGES TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY BRINGING A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S FRI NIGHT AND WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 60S BY SUN NIGHT.
MODELS DIVERGE A BIT IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING A BIT
MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THAN THE GFS. THE
MORE PRONOUNCED CENTRAL US RIDGE IN THE GFS KEEPS ANY DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WELL TO OUR
NORTH. WHEREAS THE ECMWF...WITH IT`S WEAKER RIDGE...TRIES TO BRING
A COUPLE IMPULSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
FUTURE TRENDS.
19
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
THE LARGE SCALE COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN
CORRECTED...AND THUS INCLUSION OF AMD NOT SKED IN THE TAFS IS NO
LONGER NECESSARY. ROUTINE AMENDMENTS HAVE RESUMED.
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS AT PRESENT.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WE MOVE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST ALOFT ABOVE THE
SURFACE. FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF MVFR VISIBILITIES BUT CONTINUE TO NOT
BE QUITE AS CONFIDENT ON THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR VISIBILITIES...SO
ONLY A FEW TEMPOS FOR NOW. WINDS ALOFT NEAR SUNRISE MAY BE TOO MUCH
FOR THE LOWER RANGE. ALL LOCALES SHOULD GO BACK TO VFR BY 14/15Z
WITH MIXING EXPECTED.
08/56
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 89 66 82 66 84 / 10 10 50 40 20
ANNISTON 88 67 84 65 85 / 10 10 40 40 20
BIRMINGHAM 90 68 83 66 85 / 10 10 50 30 20
TUSCALOOSA 91 67 83 65 86 / 10 10 50 30 20
CALERA 90 66 84 66 85 / 10 10 50 40 20
AUBURN 89 67 85 65 85 / 10 10 20 40 30
MONTGOMERY 92 67 88 67 87 / 10 10 20 40 30
TROY 91 67 89 67 86 / 10 10 20 40 30
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 210940
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
440 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. UPPER
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US THIS MORNING.
LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
THE DAKOTAS WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING EASTWARD THRU THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. A LINE OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WAS ONGOING FROM
INDIANA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WHICH
IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A PREFRONTAL TROF WELL
AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT. MEANWHILE UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. STRATUS DECK CAN BE SEEN
SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS MS AND SOUTHERN AL AT THIS HOUR AND WILL
LIKELY PUSH INTO THE SOUTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP CENTRAL
ALABAMA DRY AGAIN TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S.
SFC FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD TODAY BEFORE STALLING WEST OF THE MS RIVER AS IT LOSES ITS
UPPER LEVEL PUSH. THE FOUR CORNERS SHORTWAVE WILL EVENTUALLY PICK UP
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND BRING IT THRU THE FORECAST AREA ON
WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
CWA DUE TO LACK OF UPPER/LOWER JET FEATURES...RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS A LACK OF DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS. THEREFORE STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE KEPT POPS THE HIGHEST AND TEMPS
A BIT LOWER IN THE NW.
INITIAL BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE BY THURSDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL ISO/SCT
ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE THE SOUTH. THE MAIN UPPER TROF
FINALLY PUSHES THRU THURSDAY AFTN/EVNG BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY THRU THE CWA. MODELS AREN`T SHOWING ANY REAL QPF WITH THIS
FEATURE AS IT COMES THRU...SO POPS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE FOR
THURSDAY IF THE FIRST BOUNDARY MANAGES TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY BRINGING A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S FRI NIGHT AND WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 60S BY SUN NIGHT.
MODELS DIVERGE A BIT IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING A BIT
MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THAN THE GFS. THE
MORE PRONOUNCED CENTRAL US RIDGE IN THE GFS KEEPS ANY DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WELL TO OUR
NORTH. WHEREAS THE ECMWF...WITH IT`S WEAKER RIDGE...TRIES TO BRING
A COUPLE IMPULSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
FUTURE TRENDS.
19
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
THE LARGE SCALE COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN
CORRECTED...AND THUS INCLUSION OF AMD NOT SKED IN THE TAFS IS NO
LONGER NECESSARY. ROUTINE AMENDMENTS HAVE RESUMED.
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS AT PRESENT.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WE MOVE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST ALOFT ABOVE THE
SURFACE. FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF MVFR VISIBILITIES BUT CONTINUE TO NOT
BE QUITE AS CONFIDENT ON THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR VISIBILITIES...SO
ONLY A FEW TEMPOS FOR NOW. WINDS ALOFT NEAR SUNRISE MAY BE TOO MUCH
FOR THE LOWER RANGE. ALL LOCALES SHOULD GO BACK TO VFR BY 14/15Z
WITH MIXING EXPECTED.
08/56
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 89 66 82 66 84 / 10 10 50 40 20
ANNISTON 88 67 84 65 85 / 10 10 40 40 20
BIRMINGHAM 90 68 83 66 85 / 10 10 50 30 20
TUSCALOOSA 91 67 83 65 86 / 10 10 50 30 20
CALERA 90 66 84 66 85 / 10 10 50 40 20
AUBURN 89 67 85 65 85 / 10 10 20 40 30
MONTGOMERY 92 67 88 67 87 / 10 10 20 40 30
TROY 91 67 89 67 86 / 10 10 20 40 30
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 210817 AAC
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
317 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR INCLUSION OF AMD NOT SKED TEMPORARILY FOR ALL TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
DUE TO A LARGE SCALE COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE...OBSERVATIONS FOR
CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINAL LOCATIONS ARE NOT ABLE TO BE RELIABLY
MONITORED AT THIS TIME. THE TIMETABLE FOR OBSERVATIONS TO RETURN IS
NOT KNOWN...AND THEREFORE WE HAVE INCLUDED AMD NOT SKED TEMPORARILY
INTO ALL TAFS. AS SOON AS OBSERVATIONS RETURN...WE WILL REMOVE THE
AMD NOT SKED WORDING AND CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING NORMAL AMENDMENTS
WILL RETURN. WE WILL KEEP YOU INFORMED WHEN NEW INFORMATION BECOMES
AVAILABLE.
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS AT PRESENT.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WE MOVE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST ALOFT ABOVE THE
SURFACE. FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF MVFR VISIBILITIES BUT CONTINUE TO NOT
BE QUITE AS CONFIDENT ON THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR VISIBILITIES...SO
ONLY A FEW TEMPOS FOR NOW. WINDS ALOFT NEAR SUNRISE MAY BE TOO MUCH
FOR THE LOWER RANGE. ALL LOCALES SHOULD GO BACK TO VFR BY 14/15Z
WITH MIXING EXPECTED.
08/56
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
AFTER PREVIOUSLY REMOVING POPS FROM THE SMALL PART OF THE
SOUTHEAST THAT ORIGINALLY HAD THEM TONIGHT...THE FORECAST IS
LARGELY IN GOOD SHAPE. DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN
FORECAST (THIS SEEMS TO BE AN EMERGING TREND)...AND I`M GETTING
THE FEELING THAT CLOUDINESS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE DOING FINE AND WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
/61/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 64 89 66 82 66 / 0 10 10 60 40
ANNISTON 66 88 67 84 65 / 0 10 10 60 50
BIRMINGHAM 68 90 68 83 66 / 0 10 10 60 40
TUSCALOOSA 65 91 67 83 65 / 0 10 20 60 30
CALERA 67 90 66 84 66 / 0 10 10 60 40
AUBURN 66 89 67 85 65 / 0 10 10 40 40
MONTGOMERY 66 92 67 88 67 / 0 10 10 40 50
TROY 64 91 67 89 67 / 10 10 10 30 40
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
08/61
000
FXUS64 KBMX 210457 AAC
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1157 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS AT PRESENT.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WE MOVE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST ALOFT ABOVE
THE SURFACE. FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF MVFR VISIBILITIES BUT CONTINUE TO NOT
BE QUITE AS CONFIDENT ON THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR VISIBILITIES...SO
ONLY A FEW TEMPOS FOR NOW. WINDS ALOFT NEAR SUNRISE MAY BE TOO
MUCH FOR THE LOWER RANGE. ALL LOCALES SHOULD GO BACK TO VFR BY
14/15Z WITH MIXING EXPECTED.
08
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
AFTER PREVIOUSLY REMOVING POPS FROM THE SMALL PART OF THE
SOUTHEAST THAT ORIGINALLY HAD THEM TONIGHT...THE FORECAST IS
LARGELY IN GOOD SHAPE. DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN
FORECAST (THIS SEEMS TO BE AN EMERGING TREND)...AND I`M GETTING
THE FEELING THAT CLOUDINESS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE DOING FINE AND WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
/61/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 64 89 66 82 66 / 0 10 10 60 40
ANNISTON 66 88 67 84 65 / 0 10 10 60 50
BIRMINGHAM 68 90 68 83 66 / 0 10 10 60 40
TUSCALOOSA 65 91 67 83 65 / 0 10 20 60 30
CALERA 67 90 66 84 66 / 0 10 10 60 40
AUBURN 66 89 67 85 65 / 0 10 10 40 40
MONTGOMERY 66 92 67 88 67 / 0 10 10 40 50
TROY 64 91 67 89 67 / 10 10 10 30 40
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
08/61
000
FXUS64 KBMX 210138 AAA
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
838 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER PREVIOUSLY REMOVING POPS FROM THE SMALL PART OF THE
SOUTHEAST THAT ORIGINALLY HAD THEM TONIGHT...THE FORECAST IS
LARGELY IN GOOD SHAPE. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN
FORECAST (THIS SEEMS TO BE AN EMERGING TREND)...AND I`M GETTING
THE FEELING THAT CLOUDINESS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE DOING FINE AND WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS AT PRESENT. CONVECTION ON RADAR TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TAPERING OFF LOOKING VERY SUMMER-LIKE...
SO NO WORRIES THERE. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST ALOFT ABOVE
THE SURFACE. FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF MVFR VISIBILITIES BUT NOT AS MUCH
ON THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR VISIBILITIES...SO ONLY A FEW TEMPOS FOR
NOW. WINDS ALOFT NEAR SUNRISE MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR THE LOWER RANGE.
ALL LOCALES SHOULD GO BACK TO VFR BY 14/15Z WITH MIXING EXPECTED.
08
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 210001 AAA
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
701 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS AT PRESENT. CONVECTION ON RADAR TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TAPERING OFF LOOKING VERY SUMMER-LIKE...
SO NO WORRIES THERE. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST ALOFT ABOVE
THE SURFACE. FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF MVFR VISIBILITIES BUT NOT AS MUCH
ON THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR VISIBILITIES...SO ONLY A FEW TEMPOS FOR
NOW. WINDS ALOFT NEAR SUNRISE MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR THE LOWER RANGE.
ALL LOCALES SHOULD GO BACK TO VFR BY 14/15Z WITH MIXING EXPECTED.
08
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST FROM THE OVERNIGHT
ISSUANCE AS MODELS ARE FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS OF 2 PM AND WILL CONTINUE
IN THIS AREA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-85/US 80 THROUGH
9 PM. OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING AS AFTERNOON MIXING IS MINIMAL AND LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AT OR BELOW AFTERNOON MIXED DEW POINTS. ANOTHER
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE A DECK OF STRATUS THAT MAY DEVELOP IN
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SLIDE NORTHWARD IN
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH PATCHY FOG AND
INCREASED CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 4 AM.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE AREA. THINK THAT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY...BUT DID CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. WENT
AHEAD AND INCREASED TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE THERE. ISSUE WILL BE THAT THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. GOOD NEWS IN REGARD TO
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS IT WILL BE LIMITED...BUT BAD NEWS IN REGARDS TO
INCREASED COMPLEXITY WITH THE FORECAST. TRIED TO STICK WITH A MORE
CONCEPTUAL ASPECT WITH THE FORECAST AND TRIED TO PICK THE OPPORTUNE
TIME FRAME FOR THE AREAS WITH THE FRONT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS
THROUGH AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS THEN
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 64 89 66 82 66 / 10 10 10 60 40
ANNISTON 66 88 67 84 65 / 10 10 10 60 50
BIRMINGHAM 68 90 68 83 66 / 10 10 10 60 40
TUSCALOOSA 65 91 67 83 65 / 10 10 20 60 30
CALERA 67 90 66 84 66 / 10 10 10 60 40
AUBURN 66 89 67 85 65 / 10 10 10 40 40
MONTGOMERY 66 92 67 88 67 / 10 10 10 40 50
TROY 64 91 67 89 67 / 30 10 10 30 40
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
08/16
000
FXUS64 KBMX 201954
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
254 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST FROM THE OVERNIGHT
ISSUANCE AS MODELS ARE FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS OF 2 PM AND WILL CONTINUE
IN THIS AREA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-85/US 80 THROUGH
9 PM. OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING AS AFTERNOON MIXING IS MINIMAL AND LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AT OR BELOW AFTERNOON MIXED DEWPOINTS. ANOTHER
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE A DECK OF STRATUS THAT MAY DEVELOP IN
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SLIDE NORTHWARD IN
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH PATCHY FOG AND
INCREASED CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 4 AM.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE AREA. THINK THAT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY...BUT DID CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENTER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. WENT
AHEAD AND INCREASED TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE THERE. ISSUE WILL BE THAT THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. GOOD NEWS IN REGARD TO
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS IT WILL BE LIMITED...BUT BAD NEWS IN REGARDS TO
INCREASED COMPLEXITY WITH THE FORECAST. TRIED TO STICK WITH A MORE
CONCEPTUAL ASPECT WITH THE FORECAST AND TRIED TO PICK THE OPPORTUNE
TIME FRAME FOR THE AREAS WITH THE FRONT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS
THROUGH AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS THEN
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING BUT EVERYONE
SHOULD BE VFR VERY SHORTLY. WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD
TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOWER VISIBILITIES
WILL EXIST BEFORE SUNRISE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO LOWER AS SOME DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN BUT STILL HOLDING
IN THE UPPER 60S. INTRODUCED SOME MVFR/IFR VIS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
88
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 64 89 66 82 66 / 10 10 10 60 40
ANNISTON 66 88 67 84 65 / 10 10 10 60 50
BIRMINGHAM 68 90 68 83 66 / 10 10 10 60 40
TUSCALOOSA 65 91 67 83 65 / 10 10 20 60 30
CALERA 67 90 66 84 66 / 10 10 10 60 40
AUBURN 66 89 67 85 65 / 10 10 10 40 40
MONTGOMERY 66 92 67 88 67 / 10 10 10 40 50
TROY 64 91 67 89 67 / 30 10 10 30 40
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 201740
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1240 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP TO AROUND 80 AT 11 AM. CLOUD COVER HAS
SLOWED THE WARM UP FOR MANY AREAS AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO THE HOURLIES. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE
AN ISOLATED 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
NOTHING ON RADAR THUS FAR BUT SOME HIGHER CLOUD TOPS IN GEORGIA
ARE PART OF AN OLD BOUNDARY THAT COULD HELP INITIATE SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS FOR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. UPDATES
ARE OUT.
88
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING BUT EVERYONE
SHOULD BE VFR VERY SHORTLY. WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD
TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOWER VISIBILITIES
WILL EXIST BEFORE SUNRISE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO LOWER AS SOME DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN BUT STILL HOLDING
IN THE UPPER 60S. INTRODUCED SOME MVFR/IFR VIS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
88
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 201558
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1058 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP TO AROUND 80 AT 11 AM. CLOUD COVER HAS
SLOWED THE WARM UP FOR MANY AREAS AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO THE HOURLIES. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE
AN ISOLATED 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
NOTHING ON RADAR THUS FAR BUT SOME HIGHER CLOUD TOPS IN GEORGIA
ARE PART OF AN OLD BOUNDARY THAT COULD HELP INITIATE SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS FOR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. UPDATES
ARE OUT.
88
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH MOSTLY IFR TO MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. GRADUAL CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS PREVAILING FROM THE
SOUTH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ANTICIPATED. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE INTO THE PLANNING PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
56/GDG
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 201138
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
638 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE BROAD
UPPER TROF ROTATE THRU THE REGION BRINGING A COUPLE OF WEAK
BOUNDARIES INTO/THRU THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING AT CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...A STRATUS DECK THAT
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS
A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL AL. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE FAR NE AS DEW POINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. ELSEWHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE
60S.
LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER ALL MODELS ARE
HINTING AT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION IN GA MOVING
WESTWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS HOLDS
TRUE THEN WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED ISO WORDING IN AFTER 19Z FOR THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY SUNSET.
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER AL AND MEAN MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW
FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE ANY
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT MIGHT TRAVERSE THE AREA AND PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME ISO DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WILL STILL BE RUNNING
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES PUSH SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FIRST OF THESE WILL DRAG A FRONT/BOUNDARY THRU THE AREA
WED/WED NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...BUT WITH
LITTLE TO NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NO LOW LEVEL JET...AND LITTLE
SHEAR DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MORE OR
LESS JUST SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS IN THE NW AS CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT LOWER. LOCATIONS IN THE
SE COULD STILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST AND WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
BOUNDARY THRU ON THU. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF
WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE...BUT DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE FIRST BOUNDARY WHICH WILL STILL BE IN THE
AREA. SO WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR NOW.
THE MAIN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THRU THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
NW FLOW ALOFT COULD PRESENT SOME TROUBLES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY
MCS DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS BUT WILL WORRY ABOUT THAT LATER.
19
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH MOSTLY IFR TO MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. GRADUAL CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS PREVAILING FROM THE
SOUTH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ANTICIPATED. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE INTO THE PLANNING PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
56/GDG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 88 64 88 69 82 / 10 10 10 10 40
ANNISTON 88 66 89 68 84 / 10 10 10 10 40
BIRMINGHAM 89 68 90 68 83 / 10 10 10 10 40
TUSCALOOSA 92 65 92 68 83 / 10 10 10 20 40
CALERA 89 67 90 68 84 / 10 10 10 10 30
AUBURN 87 66 88 67 85 / 10 10 10 10 30
MONTGOMERY 92 66 92 69 88 / 10 10 10 10 30
TROY 89 64 91 68 89 / 10 10 10 10 30
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 200945
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
445 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE BROAD
UPPER TROF ROTATE THRU THE REGION BRINGING A COUPLE OF WEAK
BOUNDARIES INTO/THRU THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING AT CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...A STRATUS DECK THAT
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS
A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL AL. OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE FAR NE AS DEW POINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. ELSEWHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE
60S.
LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER ALL MODELS ARE
HINTING AT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION IN GA MOVING
WESTWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS HOLDS
TRUE THEN WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED ISO WORDING IN AFTER 19Z FOR THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY SUNSET.
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER AL AND MEAN MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW
FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE ANY
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT MIGHT TRAVERSE THE AREA AND PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME ISO DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WILL STILL BE RUNNING
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES PUSH SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FIRST OF THESE WILL DRAG A FRONT/BOUNDARY THRU THE AREA
WED/WED NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...BUT WITH
LITTLE TO NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...NO LOW LEVEL JET...AND LITTLE
SHEAR DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MORE OR
LESS JUST SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS IN THE NW AS CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT LOWER. LOCATIONS IN THE
SE COULD STILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST AND WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
BOUNDARY THRU ON THU. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF
WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE...BUT DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE FIRST BOUNDARY WHICH WILL STILL BE IN THE
AREA. SO WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR NOW.
THE MAIN UPPER TROF WILL PUSH EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THRU THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
NW FLOW ALOFT COULD PRESENT SOME TROUBLES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY
MCS DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS BUT WILL WORRY ABOUT THAT LATER.
19
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 09Z BEFORE LOW CIGS MAY
BEGIN TO FORM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SUCH DEVELOPMENT BUT CIGS AND
VIS DIPPING TO IFR LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE AS WEAK AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO
LINGER LONGER THAN INDICATED.
87/GRANTHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 88 64 88 69 82 / 10 10 10 10 40
ANNISTON 88 66 89 68 84 / 10 10 10 10 40
BIRMINGHAM 89 68 90 68 83 / 10 10 10 10 40
TUSCALOOSA 92 65 92 68 83 / 10 10 10 20 40
CALERA 89 67 90 68 84 / 10 10 10 10 30
AUBURN 87 66 88 67 85 / 10 10 10 10 30
MONTGOMERY 92 66 92 69 88 / 10 10 10 10 30
TROY 89 64 91 68 89 / 10 10 10 10 30
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 200456
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA HELPED CONTINUE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE ABOUT 6 PM...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
THE STORMS HAVE BEEN DECREASING. NO MORE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
IN THE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED THE FLOODING EARLIER IN THE
WEEKEND...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.
THERE`S 3 OR 4 ACTIVE CELLS REMAINING...ALL NEAR THE US-280
CORRIDOR. EXPECT THAT THE DECREASING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND PERHAPS FOGGY HERE AND THERE...BUT THE RAIN SHOULD BE
DONE. WILL HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS OUT SOON.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 09Z BEFORE LOW CIGS MAY
BEGIN TO FORM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SUCH DEVELOPMENT BUT CIGS AND
VIS DIPPING TO IFR LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE AS WEAK AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO
LINGER LONGER THAN INDICATED.
87/GRANTHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 67 90 64 88 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
ANNISTON 66 88 66 89 66 / 20 10 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 67 90 68 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 67 92 65 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
CALERA 67 89 67 90 68 / 20 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 66 88 66 88 65 / 50 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 67 91 66 92 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
TROY 67 89 64 91 67 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
61/87
000
FXUS64 KBMX 200107
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
807 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA HELPED CONTINUE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE ABOUT 6 PM...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
STORMS HAVE BEEN DECREASING. NO MORE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED THE FLOODING EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND...AND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. THERE`S 3 OR 4
ACTIVE CELLS REMAINING...ALL NEAR THE US-280 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THAT
THE DECREASING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. AFTER
THAT TIME...CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND PERHAPS FOGGY HERE
AND THERE...BUT THE RAIN SHOULD BE DONE. WILL HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS
OUT SOON.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z BEFORE LOW CIGS BEGIN TO
FORM. MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT CANNON RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
STORM NEAR KBHM. CIGS AND VIS DIPPING TO IFR LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND AROUND DAYBREAK AS WEAK AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY.
87/GRANTHAM
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 192357
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
657 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LUCKILY THE BULK OF THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED EAST OF THE AREA AS
THE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN FASTER THAN MOST MODELS. WE WILL STILL NEED
TO WATCH THE COLD POOL AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD POOL WE ARE ALSO WATCHING A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND MCS IS
IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN TN AND WILL SLIDE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
FFA THROUGH 7 PM. IN ADDITION WE HAVE INTRODUCED SEVERE INTO THE
HWO AS WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MUCAPES ARE IN
EXCESS OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG IN FAR NORTHEAST AL. THE MAIN WEAKNESS
THAT THE STORMS ARE GOING TO SLIDE DOWN WOULD BE THE OUTFLOW FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA.
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY 1 AM. AFTER
THAT...THERE IS PLENTY OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AROUND SO LOW CLOUDS
AND OR PATCHY WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. IN FACT MUCH LIKE LAST
NIGHT THE FOG MAY DEVELOP FIRST AND THEN THE LOW CLOUDS WORK INTO
THE AREA. DO NOT SEE ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF LESS THAN ONE MILE SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
FOR MONDAY...DRY EVERYWHERE AS THE HIGH IS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE BOARD. ON
TUESDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND WE WILL TRY TO GET SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...MORE OF YOUR SUMMERTIME POPCORN VARIETY.
BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DESCEND INTO THE
AREA. THE GFS NEVER REALLY PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH...UNTIL A
SECOND FRONT CLEARS BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH THE EURO
AND GFS AGREE ON THIS SO ADDED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z BEFORE LOW CIGS BEGIN TO
FORM. MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT CANNON RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
STORM NEAR KBHM. CIGS AND VIS DIPPING TO IFR LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND AROUND DAYBREAK AS WEAK AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY.
87/GRANTHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 67 90 64 88 68 / 90 10 10 10 10
ANNISTON 66 88 66 89 66 / 90 10 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 67 90 68 90 68 / 50 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 67 92 65 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
CALERA 67 89 67 90 68 / 40 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 66 88 66 88 65 / 40 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 67 91 66 92 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
TROY 67 89 64 91 67 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...RANDOLPH.
&&
$$
16/87
000
FXUS64 KBMX 192015
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
315 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LUCKILY THE BULK OF THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED EAST OF THE AREA AS
THE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN FASTER THAN MOST MODELS. WE WILL STILL NEED
TO WATCH THE COLD POOL AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD POOL WE ARE ALSO WATCHING A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND MCS IS IN
THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN TN AND WILL SLIDE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO WE HAVE EXTENDED THE FFA THROUGH
7 PM. IN ADDITION WE HAVE INTRODUCED SEVERE INTO THE HWO AS WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MUCAPES ARE IN EXCESS OF 2500 TO
3000 J/KG IN FAR NORTHEAST AL. THE MAIN WEAKNESS THAT THE STORMS
ARE GOING TO SLIDE DOWN WOULD BE THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA.
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY 1 AM. AFTER THAT...THERE
IS PLENTY OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AROUND SO LOW CLOUDS AND OR PATCHY
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. IN FACT MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT THE FOG MAY
DEVELOP FIRST AND THEN THE LOW CLOUDS WORK INTO THE AREA. DO NOT SEE
ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF LESS THAN ONE MILE SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
FOR MONDAY...DRY EVERYWHERE AS THE HIGH IS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE BOARD. ON
TUESDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND WE WILL TRY TO GET SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...MORE OF YOUR SUMMERTIME POPCORN VARIETY.
BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DESCEND INTO THE
AREA. THE GFS NEVER REALLY PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH...UNTIL A SECOND
FRONT CLEARS BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS
AGREE ON THIS SO ADDED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
DUE TO SATURATION AND LIGHT WINDS UP TO 4KFT...COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS REGION FROM SOUTHWEST...MIXING
HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE. UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO AREA AND ANY EXPECTED
CONVECTION WILL BE IN FAR EASTERN AL ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN GA. KANB HAS A REMOTE CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WITH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST TAF LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS FORMATION...AND WITH HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS...MVFR FOG IS LIKELY AS WELL...ALL AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AGAIN UNTIL AFTER 15Z MONDAY.
STEFKOVICH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 67 90 64 88 68 / 70 10 10 10 10
ANNISTON 66 88 66 89 66 / 70 10 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 67 90 68 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 67 92 65 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
CALERA 67 89 67 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 66 88 66 88 65 / 50 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 67 91 66 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
TROY 67 89 64 91 67 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...RANDOLPH.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 191914
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
214 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LUCKILY THE BULK OF THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED EAST OF THE AREA AS
THE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN FASTER THAN MOST MODELS. WE WILL STILL NEED
TO WATCH THE COLD POOL AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD POOL WE ARE ALSO WATCHING A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ADDITIONAL
LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL HELP INCREASE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD
EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY 10 PM. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THERE IS PLENTY OF
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AROUND SO LOW CLOUDS AND OR PATCHY WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN. IN FACT MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT THE FOG MAY DEVELOP FIRST
AND THEN THE LOW CLOUDS WORK INTO THE AREA. DO NOT SEE ANY
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LESS THAN ONE MILE SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
HWO AT THIS TIME.
FOR MONDAY...DRY EVERYWHERE AS THE HIGH IS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE BOARD. ON
TUESDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND WE WILL TRY TO GET SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...MORE OF YOUR SUMMERTIME POPCORN VARIETY.
BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DESCEND INTO THE
AREA. THE GFS NEVER REALLY PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH...UNTIL A SECOND
FRONT CLEARS BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS
AGREE ON THIS SO ADDED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
DUE TO SATURATION AND LIGHT WINDS UP TO 4KFT...COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS REGION FROM SOUTHWEST...MIXING
HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE. UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO AREA AND ANY EXPECTED
CONVECTION WILL BE IN FAR EASTERN AL ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN GA. KANB HAS A REMOTE CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WITH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST TAF LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS FORMATION...AND WITH HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS...MVFR FOG IS LIKELY AS WELL...ALL AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AGAIN UNTIL AFTER 15Z MONDAY.
STEFKOVICH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 67 90 64 88 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
ANNISTON 66 88 66 89 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 67 90 68 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 67 92 65 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
CALERA 67 89 67 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 66 88 66 88 65 / 20 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 67 91 66 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
TROY 67 89 64 91 67 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CLAY...
CLEBURNE...LEE...RANDOLPH...TALLAPOOSA.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 191820
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
110 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CALMER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING ARE WELCOMED
AFTER FLOODING AFFECTED EASTERN LOCATIONS YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN
ELEVATED STREAM LEVELS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AT CAUTION OR FLOOD STAGE.
SEE THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR SPECIFICS. MOST OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY...EXPECT THE EAST WHERE RAINFALL IS NOT
NEEDED. THE SLOW MOVING PATTERN WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST TONIGHT
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS MORNING...A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND PROVIDING LIFT FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL FINALLY PUSH THIS TROUGH AWAY FROM THE AREA
STRETCHES NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CIRRUS FROM A MCS
ROTATING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN OK AND KS IS
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT WAS
ONGOING EARLIER TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS DISSIPATED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REDEVELOPMENT TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
FAR EAST...WHERE FORCING FROM THE NEARBY TROUGH WILL HELP SPARK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD
THE AREA...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A WHOLE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWS REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION. CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS ANY RAINFALL COULD COMPLICATE FLOOD PROBLEMS.
WILL NOT CARRY ANY POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS...ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO THE FORECAST. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AND DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY DENSE FOG PROBLEMS AT THIS POINT.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY. DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AND HIGHS AROUND 90. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL COME FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. MOST OF THE
FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW
CROSSING THE MIDWEST. WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITIES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS AND NO MENTION OF
SEVERE IN THE HWO.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN REGARDS TO
HOW QUICKLY MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL
FAVOR THE DRIER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR NOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
14
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
DUE TO SATURATION AND LIGHT WINDS UP TO 4KFT...COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS REGION FROM SOUTHWEST...MIXING
HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE. UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO AREA AND ANY EXPECTED
CONVECTION WILL BE IN FAR EASTERN AL ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN GA. KANB HAS A REMOTE CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WITH THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST TAF LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS FORMATION...AND WITH HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS...MVFR FOG IS LIKELY AS WELL...ALL AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AGAIN UNTIL AFTER 15Z MONDAY. STEFKOVICH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 84 67 90 64 89 / 50 20 10 10 10
ANNISTON 85 66 89 66 89 / 60 30 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 87 67 90 68 90 / 20 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 89 67 92 65 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
CALERA 87 67 88 67 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 86 66 88 66 88 / 50 30 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 90 67 91 66 91 / 20 10 10 10 10
TROY 89 67 89 64 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 191126
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
626 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CALMER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING ARE
WELCOMED AFTER FLOODING AFFECTED EASTERN LOCATIONS YESTERDAY...RESULTING
IN ELEVATED STREAM LEVELS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AT CAUTION OR FLOOD
STAGE. SEE THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR SPECIFICS. MOST
OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY...EXPECT THE EAST WHERE
RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED. THE SLOW MOVING PATTERN WILL SHIFT FAR
ENOUGH EAST TONIGHT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA FOR
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS MORNING...A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND PROVIDING LIFT FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL FINALLY PUSH THIS TROUGH AWAY FROM THE AREA
STRETCHES NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CIRRUS FROM A MCS
ROTATING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN OK AND KS IS
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT WAS
ONGOING EARLIER TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS DISSIPATED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REDEVELOPMENT TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
FAR EAST...WHERE FORCING FROM THE NEARBY TROUGH WILL HELP SPARK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD
THE AREA...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A WHOLE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWS REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION. CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS ANY RAINFALL COULD COMPLICATE FLOOD PROBLEMS.
WILL NOT CARRY ANY POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS...ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO THE FORECAST. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AND DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY DENSE FOG PROBLEMS AT THIS POINT.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY. DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AND HIGHS AROUND 90. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL COME FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. MOST OF THE FORCING
REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW CROSSING
THE MIDWEST. WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITIES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND
WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS AND NO MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE
HWO.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN REGARDS TO
HOW QUICKLY MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL
FAVOR THE DRIER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR NOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
14
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ISO/SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY MAINLY IN THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SSW TODAY AT 5-10 KTS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE
TO MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM SFC WINDS.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 84 67 90 64 89 / 50 20 10 10 10
ANNISTON 85 66 89 66 89 / 60 30 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 87 67 90 68 90 / 20 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 89 67 92 65 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
CALERA 87 67 88 67 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 86 66 88 66 88 / 50 30 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 90 67 91 66 91 / 20 10 10 10 10
TROY 89 67 89 64 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 190957
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
457 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CALMER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING ARE
WELCOMED AFTER FLOODING AFFECTED EASTERN LOCATIONS YESTERDAY...RESULTING
IN ELEVATED STREAM LEVELS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AT CAUTION OR FLOOD
STAGE. SEE THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR SPECIFICS. MOST
OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY...EXPECT THE EAST WHERE
RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED. THE SLOW MOVING PATTERN WILL SHIFT FAR
ENOUGH EAST TONIGHT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA FOR
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS MORNING...A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND PROVIDING LIFT FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL FINALLY PUSH THIS TROUGH AWAY FROM THE AREA
STRETCHES NORTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CIRRUS FROM A MCS
ROTATING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN OK AND KS IS
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT WAS
ONGOING EARLIER TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS DISSIPATED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REDEVELOPMENT TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
FAR EAST...WHERE FORCING FROM THE NEARBY TROUGH WILL HELP SPARK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD
THE AREA...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A WHOLE THROUGH
THE DAY. PWS REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION. CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS ANY RAINFALL COULD COMPLICATE FLOOD PROBLEMS.
WILL NOT CARRY ANY POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS...ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO THE FORECAST. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AND DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY DENSE FOG PROBLEMS AT THIS POINT.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY. DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AND HIGHS AROUND 90. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL COME FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. MOST OF THE FORCING
REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW CROSSING
THE MIDWEST. WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITIES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND
WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS AND NO MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE
HWO.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN REGARDS TO
HOW QUICKLY MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL
FAVOR THE DRIER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR NOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
14
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT TAFS WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE CURRENT HOUR. EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
MOISTEN WITH MVFR CIGS AND VIS FORMING BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS IN THE NORTH AND EAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KANB THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCLEAR. IMPROVING CIGS
AND VIS SHOULD OCCUR BY 14Z AT ALL SITES.
87/GRANTHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 84 67 90 64 89 / 50 20 10 10 10
ANNISTON 85 66 89 66 89 / 60 30 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 87 67 90 68 90 / 20 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 89 67 92 65 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
CALERA 87 67 88 67 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 86 66 88 66 88 / 50 30 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 90 67 91 66 91 / 20 10 10 10 10
TROY 89 67 89 64 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...
JEFFERSON...LEE...MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 190458
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WILL MAKE JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE USUAL TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
TWEAKS...WILL ALSO BUMP UP POPS JUST A BIT IN A SMALL ZONE DOWN
AROUND MGM (MAINLY DUE TO THE ONGOING SHOWERS DOWN THERE). THE
CURRENT AREA OF LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHEAST LOOKS FINE...AS THERE
ARE SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO "PERCOLATE" UP THERE. GIVEN THE SCALE
OF THE PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT...I THINK IT IS CERTAINLY PRUDENT
TO MAINTAIN THE PRESENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS WELL. WILL HAVE
UPDATED FORECASTS OUT SOON.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT TAFS WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE CURRENT HOUR. EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
MOISTEN WITH MVFR CIGS AND VIS FORMING BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS IN THE NORTH AND EAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KANB THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCLEAR. IMPROVING CIGS
AND VIS SHOULD OCCUR BY 14Z AT ALL SITES.
87/GRANTHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 65 83 66 90 67 / 70 60 20 10 10
ANNISTON 65 83 65 89 67 / 70 70 30 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 66 85 66 89 67 / 50 30 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 67 87 66 89 66 / 20 10 10 10 10
CALERA 66 85 66 89 67 / 30 20 10 10 10
AUBURN 64 84 65 88 68 / 40 50 30 10 10
MONTGOMERY 66 87 66 91 67 / 20 20 10 10 10
TROY 65 87 66 91 66 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...
CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...JEFFERSON...LEE...
MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...
TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.
&&
$$
61/87
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