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000
FXUS64 KBMX 021957
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
257 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE MID 90S TODAY. LOOKING AT THE
1000-850MB THICKNESSES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BOTH OF THOSE DAYS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED. WILL MAINTAIN THE INCREASED POPS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER POPS.

GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE ON THURSDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED STORMS. BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND
30KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ABNORMALLY DRY SUMMER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
PREDOMINANTLY WIDESPREAD VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORNING BR TOMORROW AT TOI...WHERE MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGHER. DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS ALSO
ANOMALOUSLY OUT OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COMPASS WITH NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...WITH
OVERNIGHT WINDS CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE NORTHERLY COMPONENT.

02


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL
BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 021957
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
257 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE MID 90S TODAY. LOOKING AT THE
1000-850MB THICKNESSES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY BOTH OF THOSE DAYS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED. WILL MAINTAIN THE INCREASED POPS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER POPS.

GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE ON THURSDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED STORMS. BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND
30KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ABNORMALLY DRY SUMMER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
PREDOMINANTLY WIDESPREAD VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORNING BR TOMORROW AT TOI...WHERE MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGHER. DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS ALSO
ANOMALOUSLY OUT OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COMPASS WITH NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...WITH
OVERNIGHT WINDS CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE NORTHERLY COMPONENT.

02


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. NO RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL
BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021756
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1256 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A DECENT VARIATION IN DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...LOCATIONS NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR ARE STILL IN THE MUGGY
70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST IN THE MUCH MORE PLEASANT
UPPER 50S. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE GULF COAST BUT AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING OBSERVED 0.74
INCHES OF PW WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ELEVATED
CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ABNORMALLY DRY SUMMER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
PREDOMINANTLY WIDESPREAD VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORNING BR TOMORROW AT TOI...WHERE MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGHER. DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS ALSO
ANOMALOUSLY OUT OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COMPASS WITH NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...WITH
OVERNIGHT WINDS CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE NORTHERLY COMPONENT.

02

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021137
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A DECENT VARIATION IN DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...LOCATIONS NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR ARE STILL IN THE MUGGY
70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST IN THE MUCH MORE PLEASANT
UPPER 50S. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE GULF COAST BUT AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING OBSERVED 0.74
INCHES OF PW WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ELEVATED
CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN KMGM AND KTOI. AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KNOTS BECOMING CALM BY 01Z.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  66  95  69  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
ANNISTON    94  66  94  69  96 /  10   0  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  95  70  95  72  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  69  98  72  99 /   0   0  10   0  10
CALERA      94  67  94  66  95 /  10   0  10   0  10
AUBURN      93  72  94  72  96 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  97  72  97  72  98 /  10  10  10   0  10
TROY        96  70  96  71  96 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021137
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A DECENT VARIATION IN DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...LOCATIONS NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR ARE STILL IN THE MUGGY
70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST IN THE MUCH MORE PLEASANT
UPPER 50S. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE GULF COAST BUT AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING OBSERVED 0.74
INCHES OF PW WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ELEVATED
CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN KMGM AND KTOI. AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KNOTS BECOMING CALM BY 01Z.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  66  95  69  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
ANNISTON    94  66  94  69  96 /  10   0  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  95  70  95  72  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  69  98  72  99 /   0   0  10   0  10
CALERA      94  67  94  66  95 /  10   0  10   0  10
AUBURN      93  72  94  72  96 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  97  72  97  72  98 /  10  10  10   0  10
TROY        96  70  96  71  96 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 020751
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
251 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A DECENT VARIATION IN DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...LOCATIONS NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR ARE STILL IN THE MUGGY
70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST IN THE MUCH MORE PLEASANT
UPPER 50S. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE GULF COAST BUT AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING OBSERVED 0.74
INCHES OF PW WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ELEVATED
CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST...ADDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR BR AT TOI AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...NOT MANY CLOUDS. THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA BECOMES DRIER AND MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF TOI/MGM. A FEW 4-8K FT CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS. WINDS WILL HAVE
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY THEN SWING AROUND TO NORTH
NORTHWEST...5-8KTS.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  66  95  69  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
ANNISTON    94  66  94  69  96 /  10   0  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  95  70  95  72  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  69  98  72  99 /   0   0  10   0  10
CALERA      94  67  94  66  95 /  10   0  10   0  10
AUBURN      93  72  94  72  96 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  97  72  97  72  98 /  10  10  10   0  10
TROY        96  70  96  71  96 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 020751
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
251 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A DECENT VARIATION IN DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...LOCATIONS NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR ARE STILL IN THE MUGGY
70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST IN THE MUCH MORE PLEASANT
UPPER 50S. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE GULF COAST BUT AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING OBSERVED 0.74
INCHES OF PW WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ELEVATED
CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST...ADDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR BR AT TOI AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...NOT MANY CLOUDS. THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA BECOMES DRIER AND MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF TOI/MGM. A FEW 4-8K FT CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS. WINDS WILL HAVE
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY THEN SWING AROUND TO NORTH
NORTHWEST...5-8KTS.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  66  95  69  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
ANNISTON    94  66  94  69  96 /  10   0  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  95  70  95  72  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  69  98  72  99 /   0   0  10   0  10
CALERA      94  67  94  66  95 /  10   0  10   0  10
AUBURN      93  72  94  72  96 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  97  72  97  72  98 /  10  10  10   0  10
TROY        96  70  96  71  96 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 020751
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
251 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A DECENT VARIATION IN DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...LOCATIONS NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR ARE STILL IN THE MUGGY
70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST IN THE MUCH MORE PLEASANT
UPPER 50S. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED IN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE GULF COAST BUT AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING OBSERVED 0.74
INCHES OF PW WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ELEVATED
CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST...ADDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR BR AT TOI AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...NOT MANY CLOUDS. THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA BECOMES DRIER AND MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF TOI/MGM. A FEW 4-8K FT CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS. WINDS WILL HAVE
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY THEN SWING AROUND TO NORTH
NORTHWEST...5-8KTS.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85. MINIMUM RH VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE BUT EXPECT WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  66  95  69  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
ANNISTON    94  66  94  69  96 /  10   0  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  95  70  95  72  97 /   0   0  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  97  69  98  72  99 /   0   0  10   0  10
CALERA      94  67  94  66  95 /  10   0  10   0  10
AUBURN      93  72  94  72  96 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  97  72  97  72  98 /  10  10  10   0  10
TROY        96  70  96  71  96 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 020418
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1118 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MUGGY
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S...WHILE THERE ARE A FEW LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS STILL
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RISE A BIT THROUGH
THE NIGHT POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS THE MID 60S. MOST SHOWERS HAVE
FINALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS
EVENING AND WE`RE NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX
OUT INTO THE LOWER 60S AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST...ADDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR BR AT TOI AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...NOT MANY CLOUDS. THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA BECOMES DRIER AND MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF TOI/MGM. A FEW 4-8K FT CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS. WINDS WILL HAVE
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY THEN SWING AROUND TO NORTH
NORTHWEST...5-8KTS.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  93  65  95  70 /   0  10  10  10   0
ANNISTON    66  92  66  94  71 /   0  10   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  93  69  95  73 /   0  10  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  96  69  98  74 /   0  10  10  10   0
CALERA      66  94  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  10   0
AUBURN      71  92  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  72  95  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
TROY        72  95  71  96  73 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 020418
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1118 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MUGGY
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S...WHILE THERE ARE A FEW LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS STILL
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RISE A BIT THROUGH
THE NIGHT POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS THE MID 60S. MOST SHOWERS HAVE
FINALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS
EVENING AND WE`RE NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX
OUT INTO THE LOWER 60S AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST...ADDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR BR AT TOI AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...NOT MANY CLOUDS. THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA BECOMES DRIER AND MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF TOI/MGM. A FEW 4-8K FT CLOUDS AND SOME CIRRUS. WINDS WILL HAVE
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY THEN SWING AROUND TO NORTH
NORTHWEST...5-8KTS.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  93  65  95  70 /   0  10  10  10   0
ANNISTON    66  92  66  94  71 /   0  10   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  93  69  95  73 /   0  10  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  96  69  98  74 /   0  10  10  10   0
CALERA      66  94  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  10   0
AUBURN      71  92  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  72  95  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
TROY        72  95  71  96  73 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 020351
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1051 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MUGGY
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S...WHILE THERE ARE A FEW LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS STILL
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RISE A BIT THROUGH
THE NIGHT POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS THE MID 60S. MOST SHOWERS HAVE
FINALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS
EVENING AND WE`RE NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX
OUT INTO THE LOWER 60S AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TOI APPEARS THE ONLY TERMINAL WITH ANY ISSUES THIS PERIOD. ALL
OTHER SITES VFR. MENTIONED VCTS AND TEMPO TS FROM 00-02Z AS
VIRTUALLY THE SAME AREA IS BEING IMPACTED AS YESTERDAY FROM THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE APPEARS THAT THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR AS MGM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
STORMS/CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE DEW POINTS MIXED SUFFICIENTLY IN MOST SPOTS TO PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG. WILL MONITOR TOI AS THEY RECEIVED A GOOD
DOWNPOUR WHICH MAY AFFECT GROUND HUMIDITY.

WINDS LIGHTEN OFF OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP TO 6-9KTS BY 15Z OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD SWING BACK TOWARD A NORTH
NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  93  65  95  70 /   0  10  10  10   0
ANNISTON    66  92  66  94  71 /   0  10   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  93  69  95  73 /   0  10  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  96  69  98  74 /   0  10  10  10   0
CALERA      66  94  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  10   0
AUBURN      71  92  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  72  95  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
TROY        72  95  71  96  73 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 020351
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1051 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MUGGY
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S...WHILE THERE ARE A FEW LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS STILL
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RISE A BIT THROUGH
THE NIGHT POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS THE MID 60S. MOST SHOWERS HAVE
FINALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS
EVENING AND WE`RE NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX
OUT INTO THE LOWER 60S AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TOI APPEARS THE ONLY TERMINAL WITH ANY ISSUES THIS PERIOD. ALL
OTHER SITES VFR. MENTIONED VCTS AND TEMPO TS FROM 00-02Z AS
VIRTUALLY THE SAME AREA IS BEING IMPACTED AS YESTERDAY FROM THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE APPEARS THAT THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR AS MGM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
STORMS/CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE DEW POINTS MIXED SUFFICIENTLY IN MOST SPOTS TO PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG. WILL MONITOR TOI AS THEY RECEIVED A GOOD
DOWNPOUR WHICH MAY AFFECT GROUND HUMIDITY.

WINDS LIGHTEN OFF OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP TO 6-9KTS BY 15Z OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD SWING BACK TOWARD A NORTH
NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  93  65  95  70 /   0  10  10  10   0
ANNISTON    66  92  66  94  71 /   0  10   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  93  69  95  73 /   0  10  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  96  69  98  74 /   0  10  10  10   0
CALERA      66  94  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  10   0
AUBURN      71  92  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  72  95  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
TROY        72  95  71  96  73 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 020011
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
711 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...EVEN IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO LEVELS AS WELL. BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT.
THIS WILL NOT ONLY ALLOW SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO
THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT ALSO CAUSE TEMPS TO START CREEPING UP AS
WELL. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE HEAT INDEX FORECAST STARTING AROUND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS SOME PARTS COULD BE PUSHING INTO HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN. WE MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE THAT
POSSIBILITY INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
OTHERWISE...THE LONG TERM FORECAST (MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK)
FEATURES CLIMO LEVEL POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TOI APPEARS THE ONLY TERMINAL WITH ANY ISSUES THIS PERIOD. ALL
OTHER SITES VFR. MENTIONED VCTS AND TEMPO TS FROM 00-02Z AS
VIRTUALLY THE SAME AREA IS BEING IMPACTED AS YESTERDAY FROM THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE APPEARS THAT THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR AS MGM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
STORMS/CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE DEW POINTS MIXED SUFFICIENTLY IN MOST SPOTS TO PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG. WILL MONITOR TOI AS THEY RECEIVED A GOOD
DOWNPOUR WHICH MAY AFFECT GROUND HUMIDITY.

WINDS LIGHTEN OFF OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP TO 6-9KTS BY 15Z OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD SWING BACK TOWARD A NORTH
NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  93  65  95  70 /   0  10  10  10   0
ANNISTON    66  92  66  94  71 /   0  10   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  93  69  95  73 /   0  10  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  96  69  98  74 /   0  10  10  10   0
CALERA      66  94  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  10   0
AUBURN      71  92  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  72  95  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
TROY        72  95  71  96  73 /  20  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 020011
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
711 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...EVEN IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO LEVELS AS WELL. BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT.
THIS WILL NOT ONLY ALLOW SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO
THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT ALSO CAUSE TEMPS TO START CREEPING UP AS
WELL. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE HEAT INDEX FORECAST STARTING AROUND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS SOME PARTS COULD BE PUSHING INTO HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN. WE MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE THAT
POSSIBILITY INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
OTHERWISE...THE LONG TERM FORECAST (MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK)
FEATURES CLIMO LEVEL POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TOI APPEARS THE ONLY TERMINAL WITH ANY ISSUES THIS PERIOD. ALL
OTHER SITES VFR. MENTIONED VCTS AND TEMPO TS FROM 00-02Z AS
VIRTUALLY THE SAME AREA IS BEING IMPACTED AS YESTERDAY FROM THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE APPEARS THAT THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR AS MGM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
STORMS/CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE DEW POINTS MIXED SUFFICIENTLY IN MOST SPOTS TO PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG. WILL MONITOR TOI AS THEY RECEIVED A GOOD
DOWNPOUR WHICH MAY AFFECT GROUND HUMIDITY.

WINDS LIGHTEN OFF OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP TO 6-9KTS BY 15Z OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD SWING BACK TOWARD A NORTH
NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  93  65  95  70 /   0  10  10  10   0
ANNISTON    66  92  66  94  71 /   0  10   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  93  69  95  73 /   0  10  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  96  69  98  74 /   0  10  10  10   0
CALERA      66  94  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  10   0
AUBURN      71  92  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  72  95  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
TROY        72  95  71  96  73 /  20  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 020011
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
711 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...EVEN IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO LEVELS AS WELL. BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT.
THIS WILL NOT ONLY ALLOW SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO
THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT ALSO CAUSE TEMPS TO START CREEPING UP AS
WELL. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE HEAT INDEX FORECAST STARTING AROUND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS SOME PARTS COULD BE PUSHING INTO HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN. WE MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE THAT
POSSIBILITY INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
OTHERWISE...THE LONG TERM FORECAST (MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK)
FEATURES CLIMO LEVEL POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TOI APPEARS THE ONLY TERMINAL WITH ANY ISSUES THIS PERIOD. ALL
OTHER SITES VFR. MENTIONED VCTS AND TEMPO TS FROM 00-02Z AS
VIRTUALLY THE SAME AREA IS BEING IMPACTED AS YESTERDAY FROM THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE APPEARS THAT THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR AS MGM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE
STORMS/CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE DEW POINTS MIXED SUFFICIENTLY IN MOST SPOTS TO PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG. WILL MONITOR TOI AS THEY RECEIVED A GOOD
DOWNPOUR WHICH MAY AFFECT GROUND HUMIDITY.

WINDS LIGHTEN OFF OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP TO 6-9KTS BY 15Z OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD SWING BACK TOWARD A NORTH
NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  93  65  95  70 /   0  10  10  10   0
ANNISTON    66  92  66  94  71 /   0  10   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  93  69  95  73 /   0  10  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  96  69  98  74 /   0  10  10  10   0
CALERA      66  94  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  10   0
AUBURN      71  92  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  72  95  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
TROY        72  95  71  96  73 /  20  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 012024
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
324 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...EVEN IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO LEVELS AS WELL. BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT.
THIS WILL NOT ONLY ALLOW SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO
THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT ALSO CAUSE TEMPS TO START CREEPING UP AS
WELL. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE HEAT INDEX FORECAST STARTING AROUND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS SOME PARTS COULD BE PUSHING INTO HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN. WE MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE THAT
POSSIBILITY INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
OTHERWISE...THE LONG TERM FORECAST (MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK)
FEATURES CLIMO LEVEL POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. NORTHEAST WINDS.

88


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  93  65  95  70 /   0  10  10  10   0
ANNISTON    66  92  66  94  71 /   0  10   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  93  69  95  73 /   0  10  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  96  69  98  74 /   0  10  10  10   0
CALERA      66  94  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  10   0
AUBURN      71  92  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  72  95  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
TROY        72  95  71  96  73 /  20  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 012024
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
324 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...EVEN IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO LEVELS AS WELL. BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT.
THIS WILL NOT ONLY ALLOW SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO
THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT ALSO CAUSE TEMPS TO START CREEPING UP AS
WELL. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE HEAT INDEX FORECAST STARTING AROUND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS SOME PARTS COULD BE PUSHING INTO HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN. WE MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE THAT
POSSIBILITY INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
OTHERWISE...THE LONG TERM FORECAST (MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK)
FEATURES CLIMO LEVEL POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. NORTHEAST WINDS.

88


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  93  65  95  70 /   0  10  10  10   0
ANNISTON    66  92  66  94  71 /   0  10   0  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  93  69  95  73 /   0  10  10  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  96  69  98  74 /   0  10  10  10   0
CALERA      66  94  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  10   0
AUBURN      71  92  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  72  95  72  97  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
TROY        72  95  71  96  73 /  20  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 011752
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A PLEASANT SUMMER MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 70S AT
MONTGOMERY...TROY AND EUFAULA. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT
LAKES. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN PUTS CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.67 INCHES OF PW...WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE
OBSERVED FOR EARLY AUGUST. THIS DRY AIR HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR
THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PW VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE.
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT GETS
A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXPECT SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON
MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

IT IS STILL SUMMER IN ALABAMA...SO THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERAL OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE IN BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. NORTHEAST WINDS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
DRIER AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30% IN LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. NORTHEAST
TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR GOOD DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 011752
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A PLEASANT SUMMER MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 70S AT
MONTGOMERY...TROY AND EUFAULA. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT
LAKES. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN PUTS CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.67 INCHES OF PW...WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE
OBSERVED FOR EARLY AUGUST. THIS DRY AIR HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR
THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PW VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE.
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT GETS
A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXPECT SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON
MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

IT IS STILL SUMMER IN ALABAMA...SO THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERAL OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE IN BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. NORTHEAST WINDS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
DRIER AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30% IN LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. NORTHEAST
TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR GOOD DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 011141
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
641 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A PLEASANT SUMMER MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 70S AT
MONTGOMERY...TROY AND EUFAULA. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT
LAKES. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN PUTS CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.67 INCHES OF PW...WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE
OBSERVED FOR EARLY AUGUST. THIS DRY AIR HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR
THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PW VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE.
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT GETS
A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXPECT SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON
MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

IT IS STILL SUMMER IN ALABAMA...SO THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERAL OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE IN BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. A WEAK COOL FRONT WAS LOCATED
BETWEEN KMGM AND KTOI. NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-12 KNOTS TODAY
WILL HELP PUSH FRONT SOUTHWARD. SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z
ALONG SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF KTOI BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TSTMS TO STAY SOUTH OF
KTOI.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
DRIER AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30% IN LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. NORTHEAST
TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR GOOD DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  64  93  66  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    92  66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  92  68  93  69  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  95  69  96  69  98 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      92  66  93  64  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      90  70  92  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  94  71  96  70  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        92  71  94  70  95 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 011141
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
641 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A PLEASANT SUMMER MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 70S AT
MONTGOMERY...TROY AND EUFAULA. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT
LAKES. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN PUTS CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.67 INCHES OF PW...WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE
OBSERVED FOR EARLY AUGUST. THIS DRY AIR HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR
THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PW VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE.
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT GETS
A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXPECT SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON
MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

IT IS STILL SUMMER IN ALABAMA...SO THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERAL OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE IN BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. A WEAK COOL FRONT WAS LOCATED
BETWEEN KMGM AND KTOI. NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-12 KNOTS TODAY
WILL HELP PUSH FRONT SOUTHWARD. SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z
ALONG SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF KTOI BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TSTMS TO STAY SOUTH OF
KTOI.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
DRIER AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30% IN LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. NORTHEAST
TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR GOOD DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  64  93  66  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    92  66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  92  68  93  69  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  95  69  96  69  98 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      92  66  93  64  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      90  70  92  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  94  71  96  70  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        92  71  94  70  95 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 011141
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
641 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A PLEASANT SUMMER MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 70S AT
MONTGOMERY...TROY AND EUFAULA. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT
LAKES. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN PUTS CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.67 INCHES OF PW...WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE
OBSERVED FOR EARLY AUGUST. THIS DRY AIR HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR
THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PW VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE.
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT GETS
A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXPECT SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON
MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

IT IS STILL SUMMER IN ALABAMA...SO THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERAL OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE IN BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. A WEAK COOL FRONT WAS LOCATED
BETWEEN KMGM AND KTOI. NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-12 KNOTS TODAY
WILL HELP PUSH FRONT SOUTHWARD. SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z
ALONG SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF KTOI BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TSTMS TO STAY SOUTH OF
KTOI.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
DRIER AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30% IN LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. NORTHEAST
TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR GOOD DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  64  93  66  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    92  66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  92  68  93  69  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  95  69  96  69  98 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      92  66  93  64  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      90  70  92  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  94  71  96  70  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        92  71  94  70  95 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 011141
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
641 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A PLEASANT SUMMER MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 70S AT
MONTGOMERY...TROY AND EUFAULA. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT
LAKES. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN PUTS CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.67 INCHES OF PW...WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE
OBSERVED FOR EARLY AUGUST. THIS DRY AIR HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR
THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PW VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE.
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT GETS
A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXPECT SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON
MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

IT IS STILL SUMMER IN ALABAMA...SO THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERAL OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE IN BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. A WEAK COOL FRONT WAS LOCATED
BETWEEN KMGM AND KTOI. NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-12 KNOTS TODAY
WILL HELP PUSH FRONT SOUTHWARD. SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z
ALONG SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF KTOI BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TSTMS TO STAY SOUTH OF
KTOI.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
DRIER AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30% IN LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. NORTHEAST
TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR GOOD DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  64  93  66  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    92  66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  92  68  93  69  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  95  69  96  69  98 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      92  66  93  64  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      90  70  92  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  94  71  96  70  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        92  71  94  70  95 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 010812
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
312 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A PLEASANT SUMMER MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 70S AT
MONTGOMERY...TROY AND EUFAULA. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT
LAKES. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN PUTS CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.67 INCHES OF PW...WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE
OBSERVED FOR EARLY AUGUST. THIS DRY AIR HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR
THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PW VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE.
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT GETS
A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXPECT SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON
MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

IT IS STILL SUMMER IN ALABAMA...SO THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERAL OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE IN BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS FOR NORTHERN SITES...WITH NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO PREVAIL AT ALL LOCATIONS.

AS FOR TOI AND MGM...QS FRONT WILL REMAIN WAFFLING ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SSWWD MOVING WAVE
TO BRING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS MGM DURING THE DAY, WHILE OTHERS
DO NOT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS TO
TOI...WHICH STILL ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR. EXPECT SLIGHT MVFR IN
THE WARM SOUP SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER TOI...AND AGAIN WILL HOLD
MVFR TO THE SOUTH OF MGM...BUT KEEP AN EYE OVERNIGHT IN CASE IT
MEANDERS NORTHWARD.

JD/02


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
DRIER AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30% IN LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. NORTHEAST
TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR GOOD DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  64  93  66  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    92  66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  92  68  93  69  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  95  69  96  69  98 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      92  66  93  64  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      90  70  92  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  94  71  96  70  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        92  71  94  70  95 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 010812
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
312 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A PLEASANT SUMMER MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 70S AT
MONTGOMERY...TROY AND EUFAULA. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT
LAKES. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN PUTS CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LAST NIGHTS 00Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.67 INCHES OF PW...WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE
OBSERVED FOR EARLY AUGUST. THIS DRY AIR HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH NEAR
THE FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PW VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE.
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT GETS
A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND EXPECT SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON
MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

IT IS STILL SUMMER IN ALABAMA...SO THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERAL OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE IN BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR OR
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS FOR NORTHERN SITES...WITH NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO PREVAIL AT ALL LOCATIONS.

AS FOR TOI AND MGM...QS FRONT WILL REMAIN WAFFLING ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SSWWD MOVING WAVE
TO BRING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS MGM DURING THE DAY, WHILE OTHERS
DO NOT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS TO
TOI...WHICH STILL ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR. EXPECT SLIGHT MVFR IN
THE WARM SOUP SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER TOI...AND AGAIN WILL HOLD
MVFR TO THE SOUTH OF MGM...BUT KEEP AN EYE OVERNIGHT IN CASE IT
MEANDERS NORTHWARD.

JD/02


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
DRIER AIR WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30% IN LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. NORTHEAST
TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS
SHOULD MAKE FOR GOOD DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  64  93  66  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    92  66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  92  68  93  69  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  95  69  96  69  98 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      92  66  93  64  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      90  70  92  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  94  71  96  70  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        92  71  94  70  95 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 010453
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1153 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG I-85.
DEWPOINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
NORTH...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION THERE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST ACROSS THE STATE LINE FROM
AUBURN...AND MAY NEED TO MAKE A LAST MINUTE INCREASE IN POPS THERE
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE SIMILAR.
POPS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. NOT UNTIL WE
GET TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY...DO WE GET BACK TO MORE TYPICAL MID-SUMMER RAIN
CHANCES.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS FOR NORTHERN SITES...WITH NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO PREVAIL AT ALL LOCATIONS.

AS FOR TOI AND MGM...QS FRONT WILL REMAIN WAFFLING ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SSWWD MOVING WAVE
TO BRING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS MGM DURING THE DAY, WHILE OTHERS
DO NOT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS TO
TOI...WHICH STILL ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR. EXPECT SLIGHT MVFR IN
THE WARM SOUP SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER TOI...AND AGAIN WILL HOLD
MVFR TO THE SOUTH OF MGM...BUT KEEP AN EYE OVERNIGHT IN CASE IT
MEANDERS NORTHWARD.

JD/02

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  92  65  93  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    65  92  67  92  70 /   0  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  67  92  69  93  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  67  95  69  96  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      65  92  67  93  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      71  90  70  92  73 /  10  20  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  73  94  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        72  92  71  93  73 /  10  30  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 010453
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1153 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG I-85.
DEWPOINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
NORTH...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION THERE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST ACROSS THE STATE LINE FROM
AUBURN...AND MAY NEED TO MAKE A LAST MINUTE INCREASE IN POPS THERE
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE SIMILAR.
POPS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. NOT UNTIL WE
GET TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY...DO WE GET BACK TO MORE TYPICAL MID-SUMMER RAIN
CHANCES.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS FOR NORTHERN SITES...WITH NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO PREVAIL AT ALL LOCATIONS.

AS FOR TOI AND MGM...QS FRONT WILL REMAIN WAFFLING ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SSWWD MOVING WAVE
TO BRING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS MGM DURING THE DAY, WHILE OTHERS
DO NOT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS TO
TOI...WHICH STILL ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR. EXPECT SLIGHT MVFR IN
THE WARM SOUP SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER TOI...AND AGAIN WILL HOLD
MVFR TO THE SOUTH OF MGM...BUT KEEP AN EYE OVERNIGHT IN CASE IT
MEANDERS NORTHWARD.

JD/02

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  92  65  93  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    65  92  67  92  70 /   0  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  67  92  69  93  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  67  95  69  96  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      65  92  67  93  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      71  90  70  92  73 /  10  20  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  73  94  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        72  92  71  93  73 /  10  30  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 010453
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1153 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG I-85.
DEWPOINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
NORTH...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION THERE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST ACROSS THE STATE LINE FROM
AUBURN...AND MAY NEED TO MAKE A LAST MINUTE INCREASE IN POPS THERE
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE SIMILAR.
POPS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. NOT UNTIL WE
GET TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY...DO WE GET BACK TO MORE TYPICAL MID-SUMMER RAIN
CHANCES.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS FOR NORTHERN SITES...WITH NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO PREVAIL AT ALL LOCATIONS.

AS FOR TOI AND MGM...QS FRONT WILL REMAIN WAFFLING ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SSWWD MOVING WAVE
TO BRING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS MGM DURING THE DAY, WHILE OTHERS
DO NOT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS TO
TOI...WHICH STILL ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR. EXPECT SLIGHT MVFR IN
THE WARM SOUP SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER TOI...AND AGAIN WILL HOLD
MVFR TO THE SOUTH OF MGM...BUT KEEP AN EYE OVERNIGHT IN CASE IT
MEANDERS NORTHWARD.

JD/02

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  92  65  93  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    65  92  67  92  70 /   0  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  67  92  69  93  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  67  95  69  96  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      65  92  67  93  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      71  90  70  92  73 /  10  20  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  73  94  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        72  92  71  93  73 /  10  30  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 010453
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1153 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG I-85.
DEWPOINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
NORTH...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION THERE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST ACROSS THE STATE LINE FROM
AUBURN...AND MAY NEED TO MAKE A LAST MINUTE INCREASE IN POPS THERE
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE SIMILAR.
POPS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. NOT UNTIL WE
GET TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY...DO WE GET BACK TO MORE TYPICAL MID-SUMMER RAIN
CHANCES.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS FOR NORTHERN SITES...WITH NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO PREVAIL AT ALL LOCATIONS.

AS FOR TOI AND MGM...QS FRONT WILL REMAIN WAFFLING ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SSWWD MOVING WAVE
TO BRING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS MGM DURING THE DAY, WHILE OTHERS
DO NOT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS TO
TOI...WHICH STILL ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR. EXPECT SLIGHT MVFR IN
THE WARM SOUP SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER TOI...AND AGAIN WILL HOLD
MVFR TO THE SOUTH OF MGM...BUT KEEP AN EYE OVERNIGHT IN CASE IT
MEANDERS NORTHWARD.

JD/02

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  92  65  93  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    65  92  67  92  70 /   0  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  67  92  69  93  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  67  95  69  96  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      65  92  67  93  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      71  90  70  92  73 /  10  20  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  73  94  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        72  92  71  93  73 /  10  30  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 312336
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG I-85.
DEWPOINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
NORTH...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION THERE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST ACROSS THE STATE LINE FROM
AUBURN...AND MAY NEED TO MAKE A LAST MINUTE INCREASE IN POPS THERE
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE SIMILAR.
POPS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. NOT UNTIL WE
GET TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY...DO WE GET BACK TO MORE TYPICAL MID-SUMMER RAIN
CHANCES.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY LONGER. A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN MGM/TOI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MEAN FLOW IS ACTUALLY NORTH NORTHEAST...BUT LEFT
VCTS IN FOR TOI THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY
DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE FLOW. THE CLOUD
BACK ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS HAD A FEW LEVELS AROUND
4-5K FT AND AROUND 10K FT. THESE CLOUDS WILL ADVECT WESTWARD WHILE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING. ADDED MENTION AT TOI/MGM THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE FRONT MOVES VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z. WILL MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENTS TOMORROW...BUT
TOI SEEMS THE CLOSEST TO ANY CLOUDS OR PRECIP AT THIS TIME.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  92  65  93  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    65  92  67  92  70 /   0  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  67  92  69  93  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  67  95  69  96  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      65  92  67  93  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      70  90  70  92  73 /  30  20  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  72  94  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        71  92  71  93  73 /  40  30  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 312336
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG I-85.
DEWPOINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
NORTH...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION THERE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST ACROSS THE STATE LINE FROM
AUBURN...AND MAY NEED TO MAKE A LAST MINUTE INCREASE IN POPS THERE
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE SIMILAR.
POPS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. NOT UNTIL WE
GET TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY...DO WE GET BACK TO MORE TYPICAL MID-SUMMER RAIN
CHANCES.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY LONGER. A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN MGM/TOI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MEAN FLOW IS ACTUALLY NORTH NORTHEAST...BUT LEFT
VCTS IN FOR TOI THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY
DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE FLOW. THE CLOUD
BACK ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS HAD A FEW LEVELS AROUND
4-5K FT AND AROUND 10K FT. THESE CLOUDS WILL ADVECT WESTWARD WHILE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING. ADDED MENTION AT TOI/MGM THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE FRONT MOVES VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z. WILL MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENTS TOMORROW...BUT
TOI SEEMS THE CLOSEST TO ANY CLOUDS OR PRECIP AT THIS TIME.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  92  65  93  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    65  92  67  92  70 /   0  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  67  92  69  93  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  67  95  69  96  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      65  92  67  93  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      70  90  70  92  73 /  30  20  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  72  94  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        71  92  71  93  73 /  40  30  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 312336
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG I-85.
DEWPOINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
NORTH...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION THERE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST ACROSS THE STATE LINE FROM
AUBURN...AND MAY NEED TO MAKE A LAST MINUTE INCREASE IN POPS THERE
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE SIMILAR.
POPS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. NOT UNTIL WE
GET TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY...DO WE GET BACK TO MORE TYPICAL MID-SUMMER RAIN
CHANCES.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY LONGER. A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN MGM/TOI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MEAN FLOW IS ACTUALLY NORTH NORTHEAST...BUT LEFT
VCTS IN FOR TOI THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY
DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE FLOW. THE CLOUD
BACK ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS HAD A FEW LEVELS AROUND
4-5K FT AND AROUND 10K FT. THESE CLOUDS WILL ADVECT WESTWARD WHILE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING. ADDED MENTION AT TOI/MGM THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE FRONT MOVES VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z. WILL MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENTS TOMORROW...BUT
TOI SEEMS THE CLOSEST TO ANY CLOUDS OR PRECIP AT THIS TIME.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  92  65  93  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    65  92  67  92  70 /   0  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  67  92  69  93  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  67  95  69  96  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      65  92  67  93  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      70  90  70  92  73 /  30  20  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  72  94  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        71  92  71  93  73 /  40  30  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 312336
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG I-85.
DEWPOINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
NORTH...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION THERE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST ACROSS THE STATE LINE FROM
AUBURN...AND MAY NEED TO MAKE A LAST MINUTE INCREASE IN POPS THERE
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE SIMILAR.
POPS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. NOT UNTIL WE
GET TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY...DO WE GET BACK TO MORE TYPICAL MID-SUMMER RAIN
CHANCES.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY LONGER. A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN MGM/TOI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MEAN FLOW IS ACTUALLY NORTH NORTHEAST...BUT LEFT
VCTS IN FOR TOI THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY
DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE FLOW. THE CLOUD
BACK ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS HAD A FEW LEVELS AROUND
4-5K FT AND AROUND 10K FT. THESE CLOUDS WILL ADVECT WESTWARD WHILE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING. ADDED MENTION AT TOI/MGM THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE FRONT MOVES VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z. WILL MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENTS TOMORROW...BUT
TOI SEEMS THE CLOSEST TO ANY CLOUDS OR PRECIP AT THIS TIME.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  92  65  93  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    65  92  67  92  70 /   0  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  67  92  69  93  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  67  95  69  96  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      65  92  67  93  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      70  90  70  92  73 /  30  20  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  72  94  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        71  92  71  93  73 /  40  30  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 312016
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
316 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG I-85.
DEWPOINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
NORTH...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION THERE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST ACROSS THE STATE LINE FROM
AUBURN...AND MAY NEED TO MAKE A LAST MINUTE INCREASE IN POPS THERE
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE SIMILAR.
POPS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. NOT UNTIL WE
GET TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY...DO WE GET BACK TO MORE TYPICAL MID-SUMMER RAIN
CHANCES.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
TOI THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT TOI...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND A NEARBY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT TOI AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO MVFR BR DEVELOPING AT TOI OVERNIGHT. FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES...WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 15-20 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH TO NNE
THIS AFTERNOON.

32/DAVIS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  92  65  93  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    65  92  67  92  70 /   0  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  67  92  69  93  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  67  95  69  96  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      65  92  67  93  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      70  90  70  92  73 /  10  20  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  72  94  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        71  92  71  93  73 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 312016
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
316 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG I-85.
DEWPOINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
NORTH...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION THERE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST ACROSS THE STATE LINE FROM
AUBURN...AND MAY NEED TO MAKE A LAST MINUTE INCREASE IN POPS THERE
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE SIMILAR.
POPS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. NOT UNTIL WE
GET TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY...DO WE GET BACK TO MORE TYPICAL MID-SUMMER RAIN
CHANCES.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
TOI THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT TOI...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND A NEARBY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT TOI AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO MVFR BR DEVELOPING AT TOI OVERNIGHT. FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES...WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 15-20 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH TO NNE
THIS AFTERNOON.

32/DAVIS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  92  65  93  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    65  92  67  92  70 /   0  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  67  92  69  93  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  67  95  69  96  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      65  92  67  93  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      70  90  70  92  73 /  10  20  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  72  94  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        71  92  71  93  73 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 311736
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1236 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
TOI THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT TOI...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND A NEARBY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT TOI AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO MVFR BR DEVELOPING AT TOI OVERNIGHT. FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES...WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 15-20 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH TO NNE
THIS AFTERNOON.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY. LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  92  66  94  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    65  92  66  94  69 /   0  10   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  67  93  69  95  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  67  95  69  97  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      66  93  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      70  92  70  92  72 /  10  20  10  20  10
MONTGOMERY  69  95  71  95  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
TROY        72  93  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 311736
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1236 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
TOI THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT TOI...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND A NEARBY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT TOI AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO MVFR BR DEVELOPING AT TOI OVERNIGHT. FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES...WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 15-20 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH TO NNE
THIS AFTERNOON.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY. LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  92  66  94  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    65  92  66  94  69 /   0  10   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  67  93  69  95  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  67  95  69  97  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      66  93  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      70  92  70  92  72 /  10  20  10  20  10
MONTGOMERY  69  95  71  95  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
TROY        72  93  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 311736
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1236 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
TOI THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT TOI...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND A NEARBY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT TOI AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO MVFR BR DEVELOPING AT TOI OVERNIGHT. FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES...WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 15-20 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH TO NNE
THIS AFTERNOON.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY. LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  92  66  94  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    65  92  66  94  69 /   0  10   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  67  93  69  95  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  67  95  69  97  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      66  93  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      70  92  70  92  72 /  10  20  10  20  10
MONTGOMERY  69  95  71  95  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
TROY        72  93  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 311736
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1236 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
TOI THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT TOI...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND A NEARBY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT TOI AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO MVFR BR DEVELOPING AT TOI OVERNIGHT. FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES...WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 15-20 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH TO NNE
THIS AFTERNOON.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY. LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  92  66  94  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    65  92  66  94  69 /   0  10   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  67  93  69  95  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  67  95  69  97  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
CALERA      66  93  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      70  92  70  92  72 /  10  20  10  20  10
MONTGOMERY  69  95  71  95  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
TROY        72  93  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 311632
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1132 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS LOCATED NEAR KTOI AND EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS WITH THE ONLY REAL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR STORM AT KTOI. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO OVER 10KTS BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE NEAR SUNSET.

05/MA


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY. LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 311632
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1132 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS LOCATED NEAR KTOI AND EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS WITH THE ONLY REAL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR STORM AT KTOI. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO OVER 10KTS BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE NEAR SUNSET.

05/MA


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY. LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 311128
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
628 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

BOY ARE THINGS DIFFERENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER...BUT THE
DIFFERENCE IS DEWPOINTS. THIS TIME 24 HOURS AGO KEET HAD A
DEWPOINT OF 75 DEGREES...WHERE NOW THE DEWPOINT IS 64 DEGREES. IT
FEELS QUITE NICE OUTSIDE. THIS DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE
AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST. WE WILL
REMAIN CUTOFF OF MOISTURE FOR THE MOST PART AS THE MAIN FRONT
REMAINS ALONG THE GULF COAST. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
POSSIBLE GENERATE AN AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM IN THE SOUTHEAST BUT
WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MORE SEASONABLE WITH LOW 90S THROUGH THE SATURDAY.

A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. WE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE DRIER
AIRMASS...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO WORK IN ON WEDNESDAY NEXT
WEEK AND REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY

16


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS LOCATED NEAR KTOI AND EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS WITH THE ONLY REAL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR STORM AT KTOI. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO OVER 10KTS BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE NEAR SUNSET.

05/MA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY. LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 310803
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
303 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

BOY ARE THINGS DIFFERENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER...BUT THE
DIFFERENCE IS DEWPOINTS. THIS TIME 24 HOURS AGO KEET HAD A
DEWPOINT OF 75 DEGREES...WHERE NOW THE DEWPOINT IS 64 DEGREES. IT
FEELS QUITE NICE OUTSIDE. THIS DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE
AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST. WE WILL
REMAIN CUTOFF OF MOISTURE FOR THE MOST PART AS THE MAIN FRONT
REMAINS ALONG THE GULF COAST. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
POSSIBLE GENERATE AN AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM IN THE SOUTHEAST BUT
WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MORE SEASONABLE WITH LOW 90S THROUGH THE SATURDAY.

A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. WE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE DRIER
AIRMASS...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO WORK IN ON WEDNESDAY NEXT
WEEK AND REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DRIER AIR IS SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL NORTHERN TERMINALS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT MGM AND TOI AS THE FRONT
SLOWS...AND MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT DUE TO FOG.

FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 8-12 KNOTS WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT TO
NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR BY 18Z. A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY. LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     90  63  92  66  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    91  65  92  66  94 /   0   0  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  91  67  93  69  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  93  67  95  69  97 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      91  66  93  67  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      90  70  92  70  92 /  20  10  20  10  20
MONTGOMERY  94  69  95  71  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
TROY        95  72  93  71  93 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 310803
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
303 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

BOY ARE THINGS DIFFERENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER...BUT THE
DIFFERENCE IS DEWPOINTS. THIS TIME 24 HOURS AGO KEET HAD A
DEWPOINT OF 75 DEGREES...WHERE NOW THE DEWPOINT IS 64 DEGREES. IT
FEELS QUITE NICE OUTSIDE. THIS DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE
AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST. WE WILL
REMAIN CUTOFF OF MOISTURE FOR THE MOST PART AS THE MAIN FRONT
REMAINS ALONG THE GULF COAST. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
POSSIBLE GENERATE AN AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM IN THE SOUTHEAST BUT
WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MORE SEASONABLE WITH LOW 90S THROUGH THE SATURDAY.

A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. WE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE DRIER
AIRMASS...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO WORK IN ON WEDNESDAY NEXT
WEEK AND REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DRIER AIR IS SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL NORTHERN TERMINALS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT MGM AND TOI AS THE FRONT
SLOWS...AND MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT DUE TO FOG.

FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 8-12 KNOTS WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT TO
NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR BY 18Z. A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY. LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     90  63  92  66  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    91  65  92  66  94 /   0   0  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  91  67  93  69  95 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  93  67  95  69  97 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      91  66  93  67  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      90  70  92  70  92 /  20  10  20  10  20
MONTGOMERY  94  69  95  71  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
TROY        95  72  93  71  93 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 310431
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1131 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE DRIER AIR HAS ARRIVED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA LATE
THIS EVENING. LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ARE NOW BEING OBSERVED WITH
VERY HUMID DEWPOINTS REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THE DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
IT WILL CERTAINLY MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW HUMID IT WILL FEEL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
DOWNWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
NICELY TONIGHT FOR FOLKS TO ENJOY THE "BLUE MOON" AND THE LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS. UPDATES ARE OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DRIER AIR IS SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL NORTHERN TERMINALS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT MGM AND TOI AS THE FRONT
SLOWS...AND MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT DUE TO FOG.

FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 8-12 KNOTS WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT TO
NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR BY 18Z. A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON FRIDAY...LIMITING RAIN CHANCES TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  90  65  92  69 /   0  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    71  90  67  91  69 /   0  10  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  71  91  69  92  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  72  93  68  95  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      70  91  66  92  70 /   0  10   0  10   0
AUBURN      73  91  71  91  73 /  20  20  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  75  94  71  95  73 /  20  20  10  20  10
TROY        75  93  72  93  73 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 310431
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1131 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE DRIER AIR HAS ARRIVED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA LATE
THIS EVENING. LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ARE NOW BEING OBSERVED WITH
VERY HUMID DEWPOINTS REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THE DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
IT WILL CERTAINLY MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW HUMID IT WILL FEEL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
DOWNWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
NICELY TONIGHT FOR FOLKS TO ENJOY THE "BLUE MOON" AND THE LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS. UPDATES ARE OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DRIER AIR IS SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL NORTHERN TERMINALS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT MGM AND TOI AS THE FRONT
SLOWS...AND MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT DUE TO FOG.

FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 8-12 KNOTS WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT TO
NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR BY 18Z. A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON FRIDAY...LIMITING RAIN CHANCES TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  90  65  92  69 /   0  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    71  90  67  91  69 /   0  10  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  71  91  69  92  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  72  93  68  95  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      70  91  66  92  70 /   0  10   0  10   0
AUBURN      73  91  71  91  73 /  20  20  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  75  94  71  95  73 /  20  20  10  20  10
TROY        75  93  72  93  73 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 310350
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1050 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE DRIER AIR HAS ARRIVED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA LATE
THIS EVENING. LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ARE NOW BEING OBSERVED WITH
VERY HUMID DEWPOINTS REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THE DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
IT WILL CERTAINLY MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW HUMID IT WILL FEEL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
DOWNWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
NICELY TONIGHT FOR FOLKS TO ENJOY THE "BLUE MOON" AND THE LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS. UPDATES ARE OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85...IMPACTING MAINLY KTOI. A WEAK COOL FRONT BETWEEN HUNTSVILLE
AND BIRMINGHAM WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. NO CLOUDS OR PCPN
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT BEHIND FRONT. HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FOG AND KMGM AND KTOI BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 8-12 KNOTS WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT
TO NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR BY 18Z. A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH
OF THE FRONT AFTER 18Z.

58/ROSE


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON FRIDAY...LIMITING RAIN CHANCES TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  90  65  92  69 /   0  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    71  90  67  91  69 /   0  10  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  71  91  69  92  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  72  93  68  95  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      70  91  66  92  70 /   0  10   0  10   0
AUBURN      73  91  71  91  73 /  20  20  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  75  94  71  95  73 /  20  20  10  20  10
TROY        75  93  72  93  73 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 310350
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1050 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE DRIER AIR HAS ARRIVED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA LATE
THIS EVENING. LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ARE NOW BEING OBSERVED WITH
VERY HUMID DEWPOINTS REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THE DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
IT WILL CERTAINLY MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW HUMID IT WILL FEEL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
DOWNWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
NICELY TONIGHT FOR FOLKS TO ENJOY THE "BLUE MOON" AND THE LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS. UPDATES ARE OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85...IMPACTING MAINLY KTOI. A WEAK COOL FRONT BETWEEN HUNTSVILLE
AND BIRMINGHAM WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. NO CLOUDS OR PCPN
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT BEHIND FRONT. HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FOG AND KMGM AND KTOI BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 8-12 KNOTS WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT
TO NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR BY 18Z. A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH
OF THE FRONT AFTER 18Z.

58/ROSE


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON FRIDAY...LIMITING RAIN CHANCES TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  90  65  92  69 /   0  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    71  90  67  91  69 /   0  10  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  71  91  69  92  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  72  93  68  95  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      70  91  66  92  70 /   0  10   0  10   0
AUBURN      73  91  71  91  73 /  20  20  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  75  94  71  95  73 /  20  20  10  20  10
TROY        75  93  72  93  73 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 302328
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
628 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST
THAT COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN MS...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF AL...TO BETWEEN NASHVILLE AND KNOXVILLE TN. CONVECTION
SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN LIMITED TO MOSTLY THE SOUTH HALF OF
ALABAMA...WITH MOVEMENT OF ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
SOUTH. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGHEST POPS IN
THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WILL LET HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS
SCHEDULED.

USING SURFACE DEWPOINT FORECAST AS A PROXY...MODELS INDICATE THAT
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...AND THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH POPS LIMITED TO THOSE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS
STILL CLIMBING INTO THE 90S BUT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THERE IS NOTHING OBVIOUS IN THE LONGER TERM MODEL OUTPUT THAT
SUGGESTS A SYNOPTICALLY GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN THAN OVER
CLIMO...NOR A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE TO THE DAILY TEMP TRENDS.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85...IMPACTING MAINLY KTOI. A WEAK COOL FRONT BETWEEN HUNTSVILLE
AND BIRMINGHAM WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. NO CLOUDS OR PCPN
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT BEHIND FRONT. HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FOG AND KMGM AND KTOI BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 8-12 KNOTS WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT
TO NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR BY 18Z. A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH
OF THE FRONT AFTER 18Z.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON FRIDAY...LIMITING RAIN CHANCES TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  90  65  92  69 /  10  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    70  90  67  91  69 /  10  10  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  70  91  69  92  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  71  93  68  95  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      68  91  66  92  70 /  10  10   0  10   0
AUBURN      72  91  71  91  73 /  30  20  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  74  94  71  95  73 /  30  20  10  20  10
TROY        74  93  72  93  73 /  40  30  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUTAUGA-DALLAS-
GREENE-HALE-LOWNDES-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-SUMTER.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 302328
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
628 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST
THAT COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN MS...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF AL...TO BETWEEN NASHVILLE AND KNOXVILLE TN. CONVECTION
SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN LIMITED TO MOSTLY THE SOUTH HALF OF
ALABAMA...WITH MOVEMENT OF ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
SOUTH. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGHEST POPS IN
THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WILL LET HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS
SCHEDULED.

USING SURFACE DEWPOINT FORECAST AS A PROXY...MODELS INDICATE THAT
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...AND THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH POPS LIMITED TO THOSE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS
STILL CLIMBING INTO THE 90S BUT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THERE IS NOTHING OBVIOUS IN THE LONGER TERM MODEL OUTPUT THAT
SUGGESTS A SYNOPTICALLY GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN THAN OVER
CLIMO...NOR A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE TO THE DAILY TEMP TRENDS.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85...IMPACTING MAINLY KTOI. A WEAK COOL FRONT BETWEEN HUNTSVILLE
AND BIRMINGHAM WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. NO CLOUDS OR PCPN
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT BEHIND FRONT. HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FOG AND KMGM AND KTOI BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 8-12 KNOTS WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT
TO NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR BY 18Z. A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH
OF THE FRONT AFTER 18Z.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON FRIDAY...LIMITING RAIN CHANCES TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  90  65  92  69 /  10  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    70  90  67  91  69 /  10  10  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  70  91  69  92  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  71  93  68  95  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      68  91  66  92  70 /  10  10   0  10   0
AUBURN      72  91  71  91  73 /  30  20  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  74  94  71  95  73 /  30  20  10  20  10
TROY        74  93  72  93  73 /  40  30  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUTAUGA-DALLAS-
GREENE-HALE-LOWNDES-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-SUMTER.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 302328
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
628 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST
THAT COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN MS...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF AL...TO BETWEEN NASHVILLE AND KNOXVILLE TN. CONVECTION
SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN LIMITED TO MOSTLY THE SOUTH HALF OF
ALABAMA...WITH MOVEMENT OF ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
SOUTH. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGHEST POPS IN
THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WILL LET HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS
SCHEDULED.

USING SURFACE DEWPOINT FORECAST AS A PROXY...MODELS INDICATE THAT
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...AND THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH POPS LIMITED TO THOSE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS
STILL CLIMBING INTO THE 90S BUT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THERE IS NOTHING OBVIOUS IN THE LONGER TERM MODEL OUTPUT THAT
SUGGESTS A SYNOPTICALLY GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN THAN OVER
CLIMO...NOR A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE TO THE DAILY TEMP TRENDS.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85...IMPACTING MAINLY KTOI. A WEAK COOL FRONT BETWEEN HUNTSVILLE
AND BIRMINGHAM WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. NO CLOUDS OR PCPN
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT BEHIND FRONT. HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FOG AND KMGM AND KTOI BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 8-12 KNOTS WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT
TO NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR BY 18Z. A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH
OF THE FRONT AFTER 18Z.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON FRIDAY...LIMITING RAIN CHANCES TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  90  65  92  69 /  10  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    70  90  67  91  69 /  10  10  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  70  91  69  92  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  71  93  68  95  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      68  91  66  92  70 /  10  10   0  10   0
AUBURN      72  91  71  91  73 /  30  20  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  74  94  71  95  73 /  30  20  10  20  10
TROY        74  93  72  93  73 /  40  30  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUTAUGA-DALLAS-
GREENE-HALE-LOWNDES-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-SUMTER.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 302328
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
628 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST
THAT COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN MS...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF AL...TO BETWEEN NASHVILLE AND KNOXVILLE TN. CONVECTION
SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN LIMITED TO MOSTLY THE SOUTH HALF OF
ALABAMA...WITH MOVEMENT OF ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
SOUTH. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGHEST POPS IN
THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WILL LET HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS
SCHEDULED.

USING SURFACE DEWPOINT FORECAST AS A PROXY...MODELS INDICATE THAT
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...AND THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH POPS LIMITED TO THOSE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS
STILL CLIMBING INTO THE 90S BUT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THERE IS NOTHING OBVIOUS IN THE LONGER TERM MODEL OUTPUT THAT
SUGGESTS A SYNOPTICALLY GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN THAN OVER
CLIMO...NOR A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE TO THE DAILY TEMP TRENDS.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85...IMPACTING MAINLY KTOI. A WEAK COOL FRONT BETWEEN HUNTSVILLE
AND BIRMINGHAM WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. NO CLOUDS OR PCPN
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT BEHIND FRONT. HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FOG AND KMGM AND KTOI BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 8-12 KNOTS WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT
TO NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR BY 18Z. A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH
OF THE FRONT AFTER 18Z.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LESS HUMID AIR INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON FRIDAY...LIMITING RAIN CHANCES TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  90  65  92  69 /  10  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    70  90  67  91  69 /  10  10  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  70  91  69  92  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  71  93  68  95  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      68  91  66  92  70 /  10  10   0  10   0
AUBURN      72  91  71  91  73 /  30  20  20  20  10
MONTGOMERY  74  94  71  95  73 /  30  20  10  20  10
TROY        74  93  72  93  73 /  40  30  20  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUTAUGA-DALLAS-
GREENE-HALE-LOWNDES-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-SUMTER.

&&

$$




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