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000
FXUS64 KBMX 170456
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS
ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON COOLING TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH WEAK WEDGING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS IS BRINGING LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE WEAK LIFT
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRATUS DECK TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT.

ADJUSTED TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS FOR CURRENT OBS...BUT LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S STILL LOOK GOOD. WINDS SHOULD STAY AROUND
4-6MPH ALL NIGHT WHICH WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST. BUT VERY
LOCALIZED AND SHELTERED AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT
FROST BY SUNRISE.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE
WITH A LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND A HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN MOISTURE AND INCREASE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. DUE TO THIS...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CEILINGS AT KTOI AROUND 12Z. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST INCLUDED
MVFR CEILINGS AT KTOI BUT THEY COULD SNEAK UP TO KMGM AS WELL.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z AND SHOULD SUBSIDE
AROUND SUNSET.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 170252 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
952 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS
ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON COOLING TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH WEAK WEDGING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS IS BRINGING LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE WEAK LIFT
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRATUS DECK TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT.

ADJUSTED TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS FOR CURRENT OBS...BUT LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S STILL LOOK GOOD. WINDS SHOULD STAY AROUND
4-6MPH ALL NIGHT WHICH WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST. BUT VERY
LOCALIZED AND SHELTERED AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT
FROST BY SUNRISE.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL BE NEAR MVFR TOMORROW MORNING AT KMGM AND KTOI BUT
HAVE LEFT VFR FOR NOW. WINDS INCREASE OVER 7 KTS TOMORROW MORNING
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
POSSIBLE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

05/MA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 628 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN DURING THIS PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL
ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
ON TAP TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S. A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS EAST ALABAMA MAY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. THE NAM MODEL DOES SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WEST ALABAMA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEDGE FRONT...BUT IT IS
AN OUTLIER AND WILL KEEP RAIN FREE CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...AN DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING AN MCS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST AND
TRACKING IT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THIS
SCENARIO...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...AND RAISED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...THE AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND REMOVED THUNDERSTORM WORDING AND MENTIONED ONLY
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ON FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAIN FREE WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY AND LOWER 80S BY SUNDAY. THE
GFS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF THE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER AND DRIER ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA.
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WILL HINDER THE RETURN FLOW OF
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AND THE MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH QPF AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY MAY BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL. DE TO THE LACK OF RETURN FLOW..SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW 60 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS
SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE NOT THAT HIGH. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     36  64  45  66  43 /   0  10  20  30  10
ANNISTON    39  65  48  67  46 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  41  66  50  67  49 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  40  69  52  68  48 /   0  10  30  30  10
CALERA      41  68  52  68  49 /   0  10  20  30  10
AUBURN      41  64  50  64  48 /  10  10  20  40  20
MONTGOMERY  41  69  54  68  50 /  10  10  30  40  20
TROY        42  68  53  65  50 /  10  10  30  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 162328
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
628 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN DURING THIS PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL
ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
ON TAP TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S. A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS EAST ALABAMA MAY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. THE NAM MODEL DOES SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WEST ALABAMA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEDGE FRONT...BUT IT IS
AN OUTLIER AND WILL KEEP RAIN FREE CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...AN DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING AN MCS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST AND
TRACKING IT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THIS
SCENARIO...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...AND RAISED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...THE AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND REMOVED THUNDERSTORM WORDING AND MENTIONED ONLY
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ON FRIDAY.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAIN FREE WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY AND LOWER 80S BY SUNDAY. THE
GFS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF THE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER AND DRIER ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA.
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WILL HINDER THE RETURN FLOW OF
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AND THE MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH QPF AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY MAY BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL. DE TO THE LACK OF RETURN FLOW..SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW 60 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS
SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE NOT THAT HIGH. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL BE NEAR MVFR TOMORROW MORNING AT KMGM AND KTOI BUT
HAVE LEFT VFR FOR NOW. WINDS INCREASE OVER 7 KTS TOMORROW MORNING
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
POSSIBLE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 162030
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
330 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN DURING THIS PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL
ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
ON TAP TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S. A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS EAST ALABAMA MAY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. THE NAM MODEL DOES SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WEST ALABAMA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEDGE FRONT...BUT IT IS
AN OUTLIER AND WILL KEEP RAIN FREE CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...AN DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING AN MCS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST AND
TRACKING IT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THIS
SCENARIO...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...AND RAISED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...THE AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND REMOVED THUNDERSTORM WORDING AND MENTIONED ONLY
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ON FRIDAY.

58/ROSE


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAIN FREE WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY AND LOWER 80S BY SUNDAY. THE
GFS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF THE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER AND DRIER ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA.
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WILL HINDER THE RETURN FLOW OF
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AND THE MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH QPF AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY MAY BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL. DE TO THE LACK OF RETURN FLOW..SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW 60 DEGREES...SO ANY STORMS
SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE NOT THAT HIGH. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA.


58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS GENERALLY EAST
TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING IN A DECENT MOIST LAYER BETWEEN
925MB AND 850MB. WILL INTRODUCE A VFR CEILING AT TOI AND MGM FOR
TOMORROW BUT THIS COULD WIND UP BEING MVFR LATER ON.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

88


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     36  64  45  66  43 /   0  10  20  30  10
ANNISTON    39  65  48  67  46 /   0  10  20  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  41  66  50  67  49 /   0  10  20  30  10
TUSCALOOSA  40  69  52  68  48 /   0  10  30  30  10
CALERA      41  68  52  68  49 /   0  10  20  30  10
AUBURN      41  64  50  64  48 /  10  10  20  40  20
MONTGOMERY  41  69  54  68  50 /  10  10  30  40  20
TROY        42  68  53  65  50 /  10  10  30  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 161725
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1225 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TODAY`S FORECAST. BIRMINGHAM MORNING
UPPER AIR SOUNDING IS VERY DRY JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND LOWERED AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS DRIER ALOFT
SHOULD MIX DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON LOWER AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS GENERALLY EAST
TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING IN A DECENT MOIST LAYER BETWEEN
925MB AND 850MB. WILL INTRODUCE A VFR CEILING AT TOI AND MGM FOR
TOMORROW BUT THIS COULD WIND UP BEING MVFR LATER ON.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 161554
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1054 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TODAY`S FORECAST. BIRMINGHAM MORNING
UPPER AIR SOUNDING IS VERY DRY JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND LOWERED AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS DRIER ALOFT
SHOULD MIX DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON LOWER AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND SHOULD SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST OR SOUTHEAST
BY THE AFTERNOON.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 639 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS KEEPING NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A FEW KNOTS OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SO TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN AS
QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MOST LOCATIONS ARE STILL IN THE
UPPER 30S...WITH OUR USUAL COOLER SPOTS ALREADY BELOW FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES...BUT WITH
THE WINDS...WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED...EXCEPT FOR AT
SHELTERED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE
60S TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY...THOUGH NOT MUCH...BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND TO THE
NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES TO THE EAST...IT WILL AMPLIFY...BRINGING AN ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH VARYING
STRENGTHS BETWEEN MODELS. WITH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
COAST...AND THE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA...MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND THEREFORE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW...AND
RAIN CONVERGE WILL BE MINIMAL AS WELL. THEREFORE...DID NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS POP FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PRODUCING NICE CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA OVER THE WEEKEND.

BY THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME...MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...WITH
LITTLE TO NO AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE GFS BRINGS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ROUGHLY 24 HOURS
AFTER THE GFS. WITH THE HIGH DISCREPANCIES...DID NOT INCREASE POPS
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NICE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ACROSS THE AREA.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  38  64  47  67 /   0   0  10  20  30
ANNISTON    62  38  64  49  69 /   0   0  10  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  63  40  64  50  69 /   0   0  10  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  64  40  67  52  71 /   0   0  10  30  40
CALERA      63  42  65  51  69 /   0   0  10  20  30
AUBURN      62  39  63  49  67 /   0  10  10  20  30
MONTGOMERY  65  43  67  53  70 /   0  10  10  30  30
TROY        64  41  68  53  69 /   0  10  10  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 161139
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
639 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS KEEPING NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A FEW KNOTS OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SO TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN AS
QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MOST LOCATIONS ARE STILL IN THE
UPPER 30S...WITH OUR USUAL COOLER SPOTS ALREADY BELOW FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES...BUT WITH
THE WINDS...WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED...EXCEPT FOR AT
SHELTERED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE
60S TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY...THOUGH NOT MUCH...BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND TO THE
NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES TO THE EAST...IT WILL AMPLIFY...BRINGING AN ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH VARYING
STRENGTHS BETWEEN MODELS. WITH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
COAST...AND THE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA...MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND THEREFORE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW...AND
RAIN CONVERGE WILL BE MINIMAL AS WELL. THEREFORE...DID NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS POP FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PRODUCING NICE CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA OVER THE WEEKEND.

BY THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME...MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...WITH
LITTLE TO NO AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE GFS BRINGS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ROUGHLY 24 HOURS
AFTER THE GFS. WITH THE HIGH DISCREPANCIES...DID NOT INCREASE POPS
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NICE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ACROSS THE AREA.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND SHOULD SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST OR SOUTHEAST
BY THE AFTERNOON.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 160833
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS KEEPING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A FEW KNOTS OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...SO TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN AS QUICKLY AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MOST LOCATIONS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER
30S...WITH OUR USUAL COOLER SPOTS ALREADY BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES...BUT WITH THE
WINDS...WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED...EXCEPT FOR AT
SHELTERED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE
60S TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY...THOUGH NOT MUCH...BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND TO THE NORTH
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THE BROAD TROUGH
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST...IT WILL AMPLIFY...BRINGING AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH VARYING STRENGTHS
BETWEEN MODELS. WITH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST...AND
THE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND
THEREFORE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW...AND RAIN CONVERGE
WILL BE MINIMAL AS WELL. THEREFORE...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS POP FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PRODUCING
NICE CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE WEEKEND.

BY THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME...MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...WITH
LITTLE TO NO AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE GFS BRINGS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ROUGHLY 24 HOURS AFTER THE
GFS. WITH THE HIGH DISCREPANCIES...DID NOT INCREASE POPS FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NICE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ACROSS THE AREA.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY THE WINDS AS THE CHANGING
FACTOR AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS CHANGE WITH THE BUILDING OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL STAY UP AT A FEW LOCATIONS A TAD MORE THAN NORMAL FOR
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS ON WEDNESDAY
TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL RESPOND BY BECOMING MORE
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

08/MK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  38  64  47  67 /   0   0  10  20  30
ANNISTON    62  38  64  49  69 /   0   0  10  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  64  40  64  50  69 /   0   0  10  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  65  40  67  52  71 /   0   0  10  30  40
CALERA      63  42  65  51  69 /   0   0  10  20  30
AUBURN      63  39  63  49  67 /   0  10  10  20  30
MONTGOMERY  65  43  67  53  70 /   0  10  10  30  30
TROY        65  41  68  53  69 /   0  10  10  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 160502 AAC
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1202 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WIDESPREAD FREEZE AND FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TONIGHT AND A FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THE TEMPERATURE AT HALEYVILLE HAS ALREADY DROPPED DOWN TO 37
AT 9 PM AND TEMPERATURES THERE SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S NEAR
SUNRISE. WITH STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...QUESTIONS REMAINED
ABOUT WHETHER WINDS WOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT. SO FAR...WINDS HAVE
WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AND GONE CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...SINCE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE RECORD...IF
MONTGOMERY GETS DOWN TO FREEZING THIS WILL BE THE LATEST FREEZE ON
RECORD. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
EVEN THOUGH THE RECORD LATEST FREEZE WILL NOT BE BROKEN FURTHER TO
THE NORTH (IE...BIRMINGHAM...TUSCALOOSA...AND ANNISTON) LOWS
TONIGHT ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL STILL RANK IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE
AS FAR AS LATE SEASON FREEZES. FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED SOME OF
THE RURAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY COLDER THAN FORECAST AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
HOURLY DEW POINTS.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY THE WINDS AS THE CHANGING
FACTOR AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS CHANGE WITH THE BUILDING OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL STAY UP AT A FEW LOCATIONS A TAD MORE THAN NORMAL FOR
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS ON WEDNESDAY
TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL RESPOND BY BECOMING MORE
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

08/MK

&&

.CLIMATE...

LATEST FREEZE ON RECORD

BIRMINGHAM       4/23/1986
MONTGOMERY       4/13/1940
TUSCALOOSA       4/21/1953
ANNISTON         4/23/1986

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 16TH

LOCATION     TEMPERATURE      YEAR(S)

BIRMINGHAM       32          1983, 1962, 1950
MONTGOMERY       36          2008, 1950
TUSCALOOSA       31          1950
ANNISTON         30          1950

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     27  61  37  66  44 /   0   0   0  10  20
ANNISTON    30  63  35  66  48 /   0   0   0  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  31  65  38  67  50 /   0   0   0  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  30  66  40  69  53 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      32  64  39  68  51 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      31  64  37  67  48 /   0   0  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  32  66  40  70  53 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        30  66  41  69  53 /   0   0  10  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

$$

05/08






000
FXUS64 KBMX 160233
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
933 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WIDESPREAD FREEZE AND FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TONIGHT AND A FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THE TEMPERATURE AT HALEYVILLE HAS ALREADY DROPPED DOWN TO 37
AT 9 PM AND TEMPERATURES THERE SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S NEAR
SUNRISE. WITH STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...QUESTIONS REMAINED
ABOUT WHETHER WINDS WOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT. SO FAR...WINDS HAVE
WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AND GONE CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...SINCE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE RECORD...IF
MONTGOMERY GETS DOWN TO FREEZING THIS WILL BE THE LATEST FREEZE ON
RECORD. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
EVEN THOUGH THE RECORD LATEST FREEZE WILL NOT BE BROKEN FURTHER TO
THE NORTH (IE...BIRMINGHAM...TUSCALOOSA...AND ANNISTON) LOWS
TONIGHT ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL STILL RANK IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE
AS FAR AS LATE SEASON FREEZES. FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED SOME OF
THE RURAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY COLDER THAN FORECAST AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
HOURLY DEWPOINTS.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND BASICALLY A WIND FORECAST FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL RELAX SOME AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STAY UP AT A FEW LOCATIONS A TAD MORE THAN
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS ON WEDNESDAY TO
THE EAST...WINDS WILL RESPOND BY BECOMING MORE EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY
DURING THE DAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

08/MK


&&

.CLIMATE...

LATEST FREEZE ON RECORD

BIRMINGHAM       4/23/1986
MONTGOMERY       4/13/1940
TUSCALOOSA       4/21/1953
ANNISTON         4/23/1986

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 16TH

LOCATION     TEMPERATURE      YEAR(S)

BIRMINGHAM       32          1983, 1962, 1950
MONTGOMERY       36          2008, 1950
TUSCALOOSA       31          1950
ANNISTON         30          1950

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 152348 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
648 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD LINE HAS REACHED THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE CLOUDS TO EXIT EAST ALABAMA BY
SUNSET. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET BUT THEY
WILL NOT LIKELY GO CALM UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT...BUT
THE THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH WIND OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD
FROST. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF ALABAMA AND THE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AND EXPECT AND INCREASE
IN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING. A
SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS PREDICT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS KEEP THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION
OFFSHORE...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW 50 PERCENT ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. THE RAIN QUICKLY COMES TO AN END
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF ALABAMA.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF
CONVECTION AS IT PHASES UP THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROFS...
FORECASTING AN MCS TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
BOTTLE UP THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA DUE TO WEAKER
PHASING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND BASICALLY A WIND FORECAST FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL RELAX SOME AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STAY UP AT A FEW LOCATIONS A TAD MORE THAN
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS ON WEDNESDAY TO
THE EAST...WINDS WILL RESPOND BY BECOMING MORE EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY
DURING THE DAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     27  61  37  66  44 /   0   0   0  10  20
ANNISTON    30  63  35  66  48 /   0   0   0  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  31  65  38  67  50 /   0   0   0  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  30  66  40  69  53 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      32  64  39  68  51 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      32  64  37  67  48 /   0   0  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  32  66  40  70  53 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        30  66  41  69  53 /   0   0  10  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$

58/08







000
FXUS64 KBMX 152018
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
318 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD LINE HAS REACHED THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE CLOUDS TO EXIT EAST ALABAMA BY
SUNSET. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET BUT THEY
WILL NOT LIKELY GO CALM UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT...BUT
THE THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH WIND OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD
FROST. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF ALABAMA AND THE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AND EXPECT AND INCREASE
IN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING. A
SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS PREDICT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS KEEP THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION
OFFSHORE...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW 50 PERCENT ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. THE RAIN QUICKLY COMES TO AN END
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF ALABAMA.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF
CONVECTION AS IT PHASES UP THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROFS...
FORECASTING AN MCS TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
BOTTLE UP THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA DUE TO WEAKER
PHASING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD AIR STRATOCU WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THEY PUSH OUT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH NEAR TOI AND 25 TO 30 KTS ELSEWHERE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

88


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     27  61  37  66  44 /   0   0   0  10  20
ANNISTON    30  63  35  66  48 /   0   0   0  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  31  65  38  67  50 /   0   0   0  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  30  66  40  69  53 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      32  64  39  68  51 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      32  64  37  67  48 /   0   0  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  32  66  40  70  53 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        30  66  41  69  53 /   0   0  10  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 151726
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1226 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING COLDER AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TODAY.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE EAST AS THE
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE EASTWARD. EXPECT HIGHS TO
STRUGGLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE 40S...WHILE 50S WILL BE IN STORE FOR EVERYONE FURTHER
SOUTH. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS
WILL BE QUITE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM THIS EVENING. FORECAST WIND GUSTS OF
35+ MPH FROM THE OPERATIONAL SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WIND
ADVISORY IS NEEDED...ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY BE MORE
MARGINAL AROUND 20 MPH. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE WHOLE CWA.

FOR TONIGHT...BASED OFF THE LATEST MAV/MET/EURO MOS GUIDANCE AND
RAW MODEL OUTPUT...A LATE SEASON FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY FOR
ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA...AND HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
LESSEN AFTER 6 PM FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXPECT SOUTH OF I-85. THAT
AREA WILL HAVE 5-10 MPH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FROM
TODAY WILL BE GONE BY MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
OCCUR. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH IN SHELTERED AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WHERE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL BE PREVALENT. FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR...TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO JUST
BELOW FREEZING APPEAR PROBABLE. FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA EXPECT
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY 30-33 DEGREES. THE FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE
MARGINAL ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY UP MOST OF THE NIGHT. AND WHILE NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING...PLACES THAT ARE AT 32-33 DEGREES WILL PROBABLY
SEE AREAS OF FROST...WHICH CAN BE JUST AS DAMAGING TO VEGETATION.
SO RATHER THAN GETTING CUTE WITH A FREEZE WARNING NORTH AND FROST
ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH A
FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SINCE NEARLY EVERYONE IS
FORECAST TO HIT FREEZING OR BELOW.

IF THIS FREEZE ACTUALLY OCCURS...IT WOULD BE RECORD SETTING IN
TERMS OF HOW LATE IT IS IN THE SPRING SEASON. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING AROUND 8 AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND TOP OUT IN THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO
LOWER 40S SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE A
SECOND FREEZE AFTER TONIGHT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

77/GLEASON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STARTS OFF FAIRLY AGREEABLE. AN UPPER TROF
BEGINS DEVELOPING WEST WHILE HEIGHTS RISE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW NORMAL BUT WE CAN EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROF PUSHES OUR WAY AND EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE IN A DISSIPATING
STAGE AS UPPER HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE INTO SUNDAY.

MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF
TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS ABOVE THE
SURFACE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. INSTALLED POPS IN THE 20-45 RANGE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. UPWARD MOTION AND OVERALL LIFT
ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WHILE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS MUCH BELOW
THE PREVIOUS FEW SYSTEMS. THEREFORE...RAIN AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TOO
HIGH OR EXCESSIVE THIS TIME OUT.

DO NOT HAVE POPS MENTIONED SUNDAY OR MONDAY AT THIS TIME. THE
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS DO NOT AGREE IN THIS TIME FRAME AT ALL. SO
EXPECT SOME ALTERATIONS HERE.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

COLD AIR STRATOCU WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THEY PUSH OUT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH NEAR TOI AND 25 TO 30 KTS ELSEWHERE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

88

&&

.CLIMATE...

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH OR BREAK RECORD LOWS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

CURRENT FORECAST AND RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR BIRMINGHAM AND
MONTGOMERY FOR APRIL 16TH...

                    BIRMINGHAM              MONTGOMERY

CURRENT FORECAST:   31                      32
RECORD:             32 (1950/1962/1983)     36 (1950/2008)

IF A FREEZE OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT BIRMINGHAM...IT WOULD BE
THE LATEST FREEZE DATE SINCE 1997...RANKING 6TH AMONG HISTORICAL
LAST FREEZES SINCE 1897.

IF A FREEZE OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT MONTGOMERY...IT WOULD SET
THE RECORD FOR THE LATEST FREEZE DATE SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

AVERAGE AND HISTORICAL LAST FREEZES FOR BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY...

                            BIRMINGHAM      MONTGOMERY

AVERAGE LAST FREEZE:        MARCH 25        MARCH  8

HISTORICAL LAST FREEZES:    APRIL 23 1986   APRIL 13 1940
                            APRIL 22 1993   APRIL  9 2000
                            APRIL 21 1953   APRIL  8 2009
                            APRIL 21 1983   APRIL  7 1950
                            APRIL 18 1997   APRIL  6 1891
                            APRIL 16 1950   APRIL  4 1987
                            APRIL 16 1962   APRIL  2 1881

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 151145
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
645 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING COLDER AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TODAY.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE EAST AS THE
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE EASTWARD. EXPECT HIGHS TO
STRUGGLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE 40S...WHILE 50S WILL BE IN STORE FOR EVERYONE FURTHER
SOUTH. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS
WILL BE QUITE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM THIS EVENING. FORECAST WIND GUSTS OF
35+ MPH FROM THE OPERATIONAL SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WIND
ADVISORY IS NEEDED...ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY BE MORE
MARGINAL AROUND 20 MPH. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE WHOLE CWA.

FOR TONIGHT...BASED OFF THE LATEST MAV/MET/EURO MOS GUIDANCE AND
RAW MODEL OUTPUT...A LATE SEASON FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY FOR
ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA...AND HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
LESSEN AFTER 6 PM FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXPECT SOUTH OF I-85. THAT
AREA WILL HAVE 5-10 MPH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FROM
TODAY WILL BE GONE BY MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
OCCUR. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH IN SHELTERED AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WHERE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL BE PREVALENT. FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR...TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO JUST
BELOW FREEZING APPEAR PROBABLE. FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA EXPECT
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY 30-33 DEGREES. THE FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE
MARGINAL ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY UP MOST OF THE NIGHT. AND WHILE NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING...PLACES THAT ARE AT 32-33 DEGREES WILL PROBABLY
SEE AREAS OF FROST...WHICH CAN BE JUST AS DAMAGING TO VEGETATION.
SO RATHER THAN GETTING CUTE WITH A FREEZE WARNING NORTH AND FROST
ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH A
FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SINCE NEARLY EVERYONE IS
FORECAST TO HIT FREEZING OR BELOW.

IF THIS FREEZE ACTUALLY OCCURS...IT WOULD BE RECORD SETTING IN
TERMS OF HOW LATE IT IS IN THE SPRING SEASON. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING AROUND 8 AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND TOP OUT IN THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO
LOWER 40S SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE A
SECOND FREEZE AFTER TONIGHT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

77/GLEASON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STARTS OFF FAIRLY AGREEABLE. AN UPPER TROF
BEGINS DEVELOPING WEST WHILE HEIGHTS RISE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW NORMAL BUT WE CAN EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROF PUSHES OUR WAY AND EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE IN A DISSIPATING
STAGE AS UPPER HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE INTO SUNDAY.

MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF
TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS ABOVE THE
SURFACE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. INSTALLED POPS IN THE 20-45 RANGE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. UPWARD MOTION AND OVERALL LIFT
ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WHILE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS MUCH BELOW
THE PREVIOUS FEW SYSTEMS. THEREFORE...RAIN AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TOO
HIGH OR EXCESSIVE THIS TIME OUT.

DO NOT HAVE POPS MENTIONED SUNDAY OR MONDAY AT THIS TIME. THE
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS DO NOT AGREE IN THIS TIME FRAME AT ALL. SO
EXPECT SOME ALTERATIONS HERE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TOWARD 18Z AS CIGS RISE AND CLEARING
OCCURS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

87

&&

.CLIMATE...

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH OR BREAK RECORD LOWS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

CURRENT FORECAST AND RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR BIRMINGHAM AND
MONTGOMERY FOR APRIL 16TH...

                    BIRMINGHAM              MONTGOMERY

CURRENT FORECAST:   31                      32
RECORD:             32 (1950/1962/1983)     36 (1950/2008)

IF A FREEZE OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT BIRMINGHAM...IT WOULD BE
THE LATEST FREEZE DATE SINCE 1997...RANKING 6TH AMONG HISTORICAL
LAST FREEZES SINCE 1897.

IF A FREEZE OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT MONTGOMERY...IT WOULD SET
THE RECORD FOR THE LATEST FREEZE DATE SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

AVERAGE AND HISTORICAL LAST FREEZES FOR BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY...

                            BIRMINGHAM      MONTGOMERY

AVERAGE LAST FREEZE:        MARCH 25        MARCH  8

HISTORICAL LAST FREEZES:    APRIL 23 1986   APRIL 13 1940
                            APRIL 22 1993   APRIL  9 2000
                            APRIL 21 1953   APRIL  8 2009
                            APRIL 21 1983   APRIL  7 1950
                            APRIL 18 1997   APRIL  6 1891
                            APRIL 16 1950   APRIL  4 1987
                            APRIL 16 1962   APRIL  2 1881

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 150900
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
400 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING COLDER AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TODAY.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE EAST AS THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE EASTWARD. EXPECT HIGHS TO STRUGGLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE
40S...WHILE 50S WILL BE IN STORE FOR EVERYONE FURTHER SOUTH. WITH
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BE QUITE
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM THIS EVENING. FORECAST WIND GUSTS OF 35+ MPH
FROM THE OPERATIONAL SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WIND
ADVISORY IS NEEDED...ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY BE MORE
MARGINAL AROUND 20 MPH. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE WHOLE CWA.

FOR TONIGHT...BASED OFF THE LATEST MAV/MET/EURO MOS GUIDANCE AND RAW
MODEL OUTPUT...A LATE SEASON FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY FOR ALMOST THE
ENTIRE AREA...AND HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LESSEN
AFTER 6 PM FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXPECT SOUTH OF I-85. THAT AREA WILL
HAVE 5-10 MPH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FROM TODAY WILL BE
GONE BY MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. THE
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH IN SHELTERED AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WHERE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL BE PREVALENT. FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR...TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO JUST
BELOW FREEZING APPEAR PROBABLE. FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA EXPECT
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY 30-33 DEGREES. THE FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE
MARGINAL ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY UP MOST OF THE NIGHT. AND WHILE NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING...PLACES THAT ARE AT 32-33 DEGREES WILL PROBABLY
SEE AREAS OF FROST...WHICH CAN BE JUST AS DAMAGING TO VEGETATION.
SO RATHER THAN GETTING CUTE WITH A FREEZE WARNING NORTH AND FROST
ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH A
FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SINCE NEARLY EVERYONE IS
FORECAST TO HIT FREEZING OR BELOW.

IF THIS FREEZE ACTUALLY OCCURS...IT WOULD BE RECORD SETTING IN TERMS
OF HOW LATE IT IS IN THE SPRING SEASON. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING AROUND 8 AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND TOP OUT IN THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
LOW TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE A SECOND
FREEZE AFTER TONIGHT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

77/GLEASON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STARTS OFF FAIRLY AGREEABLE. AN UPPER TROF
BEGINS DEVELOPING WEST WHILE HEIGHTS RISE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW NORMAL BUT WE CAN EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROF PUSHES OUR WAY AND EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE IN A DISSIPATING
STAGE AS UPPER HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE INTO SUNDAY.

MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF
TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS ABOVE THE
SURFACE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. INSTALLED POPS IN THE 20-45 RANGE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. UPWARD MOTION AND OVERALL LIFT
ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WHILE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS MUCH BELOW
THE PREVIOUS FEW SYSTEMS. THEREFORE...RAIN AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TOO
HIGH OR EXCESSIVE THIS TIME OUT.

DO NOT HAVE POPS MENTIONED SUNDAY OR MONDAY AT THIS TIME. THE
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS DO NOT AGREE IN THIS TIME FRAME AT ALL. SO
EXPECT SOME ALTERATIONS HERE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONDITIONS VARY ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM IFR TO VFR. THE COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. MOST OF THE OBS NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE IFR AND EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL DROP DOWN TO IFR AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
RAIN IS MOVING OUT A BIT QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED AND SHOULD END
AT KTCL...KBHM AND KEET OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THUNDER HAS
BEEN VERY LIMITED AND HAVE WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL PICK UP TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF OVER 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.CLIMATE...

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH OR BREAK RECORD LOWS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

CURRENT FORECAST AND RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR BIRMINGHAM AND
MONTGOMERY FOR APRIL 16TH...


                    BIRMINGHAM              MONTGOMERY

CURRENT FORECAST:   31                      32
RECORD:             32 (1950/1962/1983)     36 (1950/2008)


IF A FREEZE OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT BIRMINGHAM...IT WOULD BE
THE LATEST FREEZE DATE SINCE 1997...RANKING 6TH AMONG HISTORICAL
LAST FREEZES SINCE 1897.

IF A FREEZE OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AT MONTGOMERY...IT WOULD SET
THE RECORD FOR THE LATEST FREEZE DATE SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

AVERAGE AND HISTORICAL LAST FREEZES FOR BIRMINGHAM AND MONTGOMERY...


                            BIRMINGHAM      MONTGOMERY

AVERAGE LAST FREEZE:        MARCH 25        MARCH  8

HISTORICAL LAST FREEZES:    APRIL 23 1986   APRIL 13 1940
                            APRIL 22 1993   APRIL  9 2000
                            APRIL 21 1953   APRIL  8 2009
                            APRIL 21 1983   APRIL  7 1950
                            APRIL 18 1997   APRIL  6 1891
                            APRIL 16 1950   APRIL  4 1987
                            APRIL 16 1962   APRIL  2 1881

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  27  61  38  66 /  30   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    52  30  63  38  66 /  30   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  52  31  65  40  67 /  20   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  54  30  66  40  69 /  10   0   0   0  10
CALERA      53  32  64  42  68 /  20   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      55  32  64  40  67 /  50   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  57  32  66  42  70 /  30   0   0  10  10
TROY        56  30  66  41  69 /  40   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 150454
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1154 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AS ANTICIPATED EARLIER THIS EVENING...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST CUT OFF CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM
ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. AS OF THE LAST HALF HOUR OR SO ONLY
A HALF DOZEN OR SO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE SHOWING UP
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN A BIT QUICKER
THAN ANTICIPATED. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING AT
HALEYVILLE WITH RAIN BEGINNING TO COME TO AN END ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. WITH THE RAIN COMING TO AN END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA. MUCH COLDER AIR IS MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
ALREADY DOWN INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR ARRIVING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONDITIONS VARY ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM IFR TO VFR. THE COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. MOST OF THE OBS NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE IFR AND EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL DROP DOWN TO IFR AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
RAIN IS MOVING OUT A BIT QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED AND SHOULD END
AT KTCL...KBHM AND KEET OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THUNDER HAS
BEEN VERY LIMITED AND HAVE WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL PICK UP TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF OVER 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...
CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...
DALLAS...ELMORE...ETOWAH...GREENE...HALE...JEFFERSON...LEE...
LOWNDES...MACON...MARENGO...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PIKE...
RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...TALLADEGA...
TALLAPOOSA...TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 150358
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1058 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AS ANTICIPATED EARLIER THIS EVENING...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST CUT OFF CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM
ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. AS OF THE LAST HALF HOUR OR SO ONLY
A HALF DOZEN OR SO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE SHOWING UP
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN A BIT QUICKER
THAN ANTICIPATED. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING AT
HALEYVILLE WITH RAIN BEGINNING TO COME TO AN END ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. WITH THE RAIN COMING TO AN END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA. MUCH COLDER AIR IS MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
ALREADY DOWN INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR ARRIVING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LARGE SWATH OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF ALABAMA
EARLY THIS EVENING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER
AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO THE
MORNING WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BE RATHER GUSTY FOR TUESDAY. MVFR
TO IFR CIGS ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM BUT ONLY MVFR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

08/MK


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 500 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

CONTINUING TO CLOSELY EXAMINE THE MESOSCALE. THE MORNING RAIN AND
AFTERNOON CLOUDS HAVE CERTAINLY HAMPERED MOST OF THE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE HAVE...HOWEVER...REBOUNDED A
BIT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE EVEN SOME SUNSHINE IS
BREAKING THROUGH.  THIS IS MAINLY NEAR HWY 80 AND JUST NORTH AND
SOUTHWARD IN SUMTER...MARENGO...GREENE...HALE...AND DALLAS
COUNTIES.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS ALSO WHERE A SQUALL LINE IS
CURRENTLY INBOUND FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.  THAT...ALONG WITH
SEVERAL ENHANCED CELLS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE LA GULF COAST.  MY
GUESS IS THEY WILL BECOME CONSOLIDATED RIGHT BEFORE THEY GET TO THE
AL/MS STATE LINE.  INTERESTINGLY...I WAS FULLY EXPECTING TO SEE THE
STORMS STAY HOOKED TO THE GULF COAST AS THEY MADE THEIR WAY EAST IN
THE CLASSIC GULF COAST CUTOFF SCENARIO...BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE
SYSTEM IS DYNAMIC ENOUGH TO FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH.
SOME OF THE GULF COAST CUTOFF MAY STILL HAPPEN FURTHER EAST OVER
AL/FL WITHOUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY GRADIENT INLAND.

ALL THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES HAVE MODERATELY REBOUNDED IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA WHERE THE SUN HAS HELPED MIX THE LOWER BL.
MLCAPES WILL STILL STRUGGLE...BUT MAY MUSTER 500 JOULES OR SO JUST
AHEAD OF THE LINE.  BEING THAT THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE
SEEMINGLY WEAK BUT THE 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE BETWEEN 50 AND 60
KTS SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT STORMS MAY CERTAINLY STAY
ORGANIZED...AT LEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ALONG WITH ANY
THERMAL BOUNDARIES THAT MAY BE LINGERING TO POSSIBLY ENHANCE THE
WIND DAMAGE THREAT.  THE SQUALL LINE ALSO LOOKS TO HAVE ENOUGH
FORWARD SPEED TO NOT BE A MAJOR FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BUT SOME
ADDITIONAL MINOR AND NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING WILL LIKELY PERSIST.

17/KLAWS

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...
CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...
DALLAS...ELMORE...ETOWAH...GREENE...HALE...JEFFERSON...LEE...
LOWNDES...MACON...MARENGO...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PIKE...
RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...TALLADEGA...
TALLAPOOSA...TUSCALOOSA.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 150021 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
721 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CONTINUING TO CLOSELY EXAMINE THE MESOSCALE. THE MORNING RAIN AND
AFTERNOON CLOUDS HAVE CERTAINLY HAMPERED MOST OF THE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE HAVE...HOWEVER...REBOUNDED A
BIT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE EVEN SOME SUNSHINE IS
BREAKING THROUGH.  THIS IS MAINLY NEAR HWY 80 AND JUST NORTH AND
SOUTHWARD IN SUMTER...MARENGO...GREENE...HALE...AND DALLAS
COUNTIES.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS ALSO WHERE A SQUALL LINE IS
CURRENTLY INBOUND FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.  THAT...ALONG WITH
SEVERAL ENHANCED CELLS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE LA GULF COAST.  MY
GUESS IS THEY WILL BECOME CONSOLIDATED RIGHT BEFORE THEY GET TO THE
AL/MS STATE LINE.  INTERESTINGLY...I WAS FULLY EXPECTING TO SEE THE
STORMS STAY HOOKED TO THE GULF COAST AS THEY MADE THEIR WAY EAST IN
THE CLASSIC GULF COAST CUTOFF SCENARIO...BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE
SYSTEM IS DYNAMIC ENOUGH TO FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH.
SOME OF THE GULF COAST CUTOFF MAY STILL HAPPEN FURTHER EAST OVER
AL/FL WITHOUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY GRADIENT INLAND.

ALL THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES HAVE MODERATELY REBOUNDED IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA WHERE THE SUN HAS HELPED MIX THE LOWER BL.
MLCAPES WILL STILL STRUGGLE...BUT MAY MUSTER 500 JOULES OR SO JUST
AHEAD OF THE LINE.  BEING THAT THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE
SEEMINGLY WEAK BUT THE 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE BETWEEN 50 AND 60
KTS SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT STORMS MAY CERTAINLY STAY
ORGANIZED...AT LEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ALONG WITH ANY
THERMAL BOUNDARIES THAT MAY BE LINGERING TO POSSIBLY ENHANCE THE
WIND DAMAGE THREAT.  THE SQUALL LINE ALSO LOOKS TO HAVE ENOUGH
FORWARD SPEED TO NOT BE A MAJOR FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BUT SOME
ADDITIONAL MINOR AND NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING WILL LIKELY PERSIST.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LARGE SWATH OF RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF ALABAMA
EARLY THIS EVENING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER
AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO THE
MORNING WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BE RATHER GUSTY FOR TUESDAY. MVFR
TO IFR CIGS ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM BUT ONLY MVFR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINS.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  50  31  63  41 / 100  30   0   0   0
ANNISTON    47  52  32  64  41 / 100  40   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  44  52  34  64  45 / 100  20   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  45  53  34  65  44 / 100  20   0   0   0
CALERA      45  53  34  64  45 / 100  20   0   0   0
AUBURN      51  57  36  63  43 / 100  60  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  52  59  36  67  46 / 100  30   0   0  10
TROY        52  59  33  66  44 / 100  40  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

$$

17/08







000
FXUS64 KBMX 142206
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
500 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CONTINUING TO CLOSELY EXAMINE THE MESOSCALE. THE MORNING RAIN AND
AFTERNOON CLOUDS HAVE CERTAINLY HAMPERED MOST OF THE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE HAVE...HOWEVER...REBOUNDED A
BIT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE EVEN SOME SUNSHINE IS
BREAKING THROUGH.  THIS IS MAINLY NEAR HWY 80 AND JUST NORTH AND
SOUTHWARD IN SUMTER...MARENGO...GREENE...HALE...AND DALLAS
COUNTIES.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS ALSO WHERE A SQUALL LINE IS
CURRENTLY INBOUND FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.  THAT...ALONG WITH
SEVERAL ENHANCED CELLS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE LA GULF COAST.  MY
GUESS IS THEY WILL BECOME CONSOLIDATED RIGHT BEFORE THEY GET TO THE
AL/MS STATE LINE.  INTERESTINGLY...I WAS FULLY EXPECTING TO SEE THE
STORMS STAY HOOKED TO THE GULF COAST AS THEY MADE THEIR WAY EAST IN
THE CLASSIC GULF COAST CUTOFF SCENARIO...BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE
SYSTEM IS DYNAMIC ENOUGH TO FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH.
SOME OF THE GULF COAST CUTOFF MAY STILL HAPPEN FURTHER EAST OVER
AL/FL WITHOUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY GRADIENT INLAND.

ALL THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES HAVE MODERATELY REBOUNDED IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA WHERE THE SUN HAS HELPED MIX THE LOWER BL.
MLCAPES WILL STILL STRUGGLE...BUT MAY MUSTER 500 JOULES OR SO JUST
AHEAD OF THE LINE.  BEING THAT THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE
SEEMINGLY WEAK BUT THE 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE BETWEEN 50 AND 60
KTS SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT STORMS MAY CERTAINLY STAY
ORGANIZED...AT LEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ALONG WITH ANY
THERMAL BOUNDARIES THAT MAY BE LINGERING TO POSSIBLY ENHANCE THE
WIND DAMAGE THREAT.  THE SQUALL LINE ALSO LOOKS TO HAVE ENOUGH
FORWARD SPEED TO NOT BE A MAJOR FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BUT SOME
ADDITIONAL MINOR AND NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING WILL LIKELY PERSIST.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONTINUED SHOWERS AND VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR AT TIMES WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. A
SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
PASSES CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN MVFR BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 20KTS
WITH SUSTAINED AT 30KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST GENERALLY AFTER 15Z.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

$$














000
FXUS64 KBMX 141753
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1253 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST EXPECTATION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
SCROLL DOWN TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

AS FOR THE OVERALL FORECAST...WE WILL BE SEEING THE SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN WILL
LIKELY NOT CLEAR UNTIL NOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH A PRETTY
GOOD RAINFALL THIS MORNING...ANY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING SO WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS WELL AS EXPANDING IN
FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SATURATED WHEN THIS SECOND ROUND MOVES IN SO BE
PREPARED.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND WITH
STRONG CAA WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S IN THE NORTH AND
50S ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR THE COLD NIGHT IN
STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH AREAWIDE
FROST. THE GOOD NEWS WOULD BE THAT THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WOULD
ONLY BE FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT THE FROST MAY BEGIN AS EARLY 2 OR 3
AM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL STICK WITH
CONSISTENCY OF THE FORECAST AND ADJUST TIMING IF NEEDED IN THE
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST.

WE WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM ON MONDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM APPEARS TO POSE ANY SEVERE THREAT
AT THIS TIME.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONTINUED SHOWERS AND VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR AT TIMES WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. A
SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
PASSES CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN MVFR BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 20KTS
WITH SUSTAINED AT 30KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST GENERALLY AFTER 15Z.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 951 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI
AND EASTWARD ACROSS ALABAMA. THE BEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR IS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND THAT IS WHERE THE APEX OF THE BOW
SHIFTED TOWARDS. THE AIR MASS IS MUCH MORE STABLE ACROSS ALABAMA
WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 50S...AND MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. GIVEN
THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING...
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WOULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IS
VERY LIMITED WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THE APEX OF
THE BOW HAS NOW PASSED HATTIESBURG MISSISSIPPI... THE WESTERN END
OF THE MCS WAS FARTHER NORTHWARD...NEAR MONROE LOUISIANA. THIS IS
WHERE THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SETTING UP AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING IN THIS AREA.

LAKE CHARLES AND NEW ORLEANS UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BELOW 850MB. THE RAIN COOLED AIR MASS ALONG THE
EDGES OF THE MCS IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW ECHOES
PROPAGATING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ONCE THE CONVECTION INITIATES ON THE
BOUNDARY. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE AIR MASS WILL HAVE TIME TO RECOVER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI DUE TO INCREASING LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HOW MUCH RECOVERY IN
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN THE SEVERE CHANCES
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS ALREADY REMOVED THE NORTHERN TW0-THIRDS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
FROM THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. IT IS LIKELY ANOTHER MCS WILL DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
ALABAMA THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS. BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW
STRONG THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE BY THE TIME IT REACHES
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  50  31  63  41 / 100  50   0   0   0
ANNISTON    47  52  32  64  41 / 100  60   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  44  52  34  64  45 / 100  40   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  45  53  34  65  44 / 100  20   0   0   0
CALERA      45  53  34  64  45 / 100  40   0   0   0
AUBURN      51  57  36  63  43 / 100  80  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  52  59  36  67  46 / 100  70   0   0  10
TROY        52  59  33  66  44 / 100  80  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KBMX 141451
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
951 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI
AND EASTWARD ACROSS ALABAMA. THE BEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR IS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND THAT IS WHERE THE APEX OF THE BOW
SHIFTED TOWARDS. THE AIR MASS IS MUCH MORE STABLE ACROSS ALABAMA
WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 50S...AND MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. GIVEN
THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING...
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WOULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IS
VERY LIMITED WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THE APEX OF
THE BOW HAS NOW PASSED HATTIESBURG MISSISSIPPI... THE WESTERN END
OF THE MCS WAS FARTHER NORTHWARD...NEAR MONROE LOUISIANA. THIS IS
WHERE THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SETTING UP AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING IN THIS AREA.

LAKE CHARLES AND NEW ORLEANS UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BELOW 850MB. THE RAIN COOLED AIR MASS ALONG THE
EDGES OF THE MCS IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW ECHOES
PROPAGATING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ONCE THE CONVECTION INITIATES ON THE
BOUNDARY. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE AIR MASS WILL HAVE TIME TO RECOVER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI DUE TO INCREASING LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HOW MUCH RECOVERY IN
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN THE SEVERE CHANCES
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS ALREADY REMOVED THE NORTHERN TW0-THIRDS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
FROM THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. IT IS LIKELY ANOTHER MCS WILL DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
ALABAMA THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS. BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW
STRONG THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE BY THE TIME IT REACHES
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
CIGS/VIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS THE RAIN
MOVES IN. INTERMITTENT IFR CIGS COULD ALSO OCCUR. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT WITH RAIN AND IFR CIGS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 636 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

HIGHLY COMPLEX SITUATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER
MISSISSIPPI ARE CURRENTLY MERGING TOGETHER AND BECOMING A MORE
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED AREA OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AS IT
SPREADS INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. SO HOW DOES THIS COMPLEX EVOLVE AND
WHAT EFFECT DOES THIS IT HAVE ON ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

MOST MODELS HAVE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER MISSISSIPPI MOVING
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA NEAR THE I-59 CORRIDOR AND GENERALLY
WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY. SATELLITE BLENDED PRECIP WATER
ESTIMATES INDICATE ATMOSPHERE OF 1.5 INCH MOISTURE WITH POTENTIAL
OF AN INCREASE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
BUT THE CURRENT COLD POOL HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHWARD TOWARD WHAT
INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. THIS SHIFT MAY REALLY THROUGH A WRINKLE
INTO THE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME... INCREASED RAIN AMOUNTS THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY NEAR I-59 CORRIDOR WEST OF I-65. WILL ALSO
START THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE ISSUANCE AS
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA SHORTLY. PART OF THE
COMPLEXITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MORNING CONVECTION. WE ARE
EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SWINGS
ACROSS. THIS WILL IN-TURN LEAD TO A POTENTIAL SOUTHWARD
SURGE/OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE AREA...WHICH APPEARS
TO ALREADY HAVE STARTED. WE ALSO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TODAY. THIS
OUTFLOW MAY CONTAMINATE/DISRUPT THE POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION THAT
WAS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS THE SECOND
UPPER FEATURE AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH THIS EVENING...ANOTHER
BATCH OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE MAIN CHANGE IN OUR THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED BUT STILL NOT ZERO. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION A SMALL CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...
BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ADJUSTED TO FLOODING. RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE STILL IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

THIS REMAINS A HIGHLY COMPLEX SITUATION AND DEPENDENT ON THE
MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENTS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM THAT SWINGS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IS POTENT AND ANY CHANGES
IN THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE STRENGTH OF
THE SECOND BATCH OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD
DOWN WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE WEATHER...SIMPLY INCREASE YOUR
AWARENESS OF THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS AS THE
MESOSCALE DETAILS CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY.

BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONT AFFECTS THE STATE TOWARD WEEKS END AND KEPT THE
20-40 POPS ATTM.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  48  52  34  63 / 100 100  50   0   0
ANNISTON    71  47  53  33  64 / 100 100  60   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  71  44  54  34  64 / 100 100  40   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  72  45  56  34  65 / 100 100  20   0   0
CALERA      72  45  54  36  64 / 100 100  40   0   0
AUBURN      78  51  57  36  63 /  80 100  80  10   0
MONTGOMERY  78  52  58  36  67 /  90 100  70   0   0
TROY        81  52  57  33  66 /  60 100  80  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BIBB...BLOUNT...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...
ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...JEFFERSON...LAMAR...MARENGO...
MARION...PERRY...PICKENS...RANDOLPH...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...
SUMTER...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 141136
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGHLY COMPLEX SITUATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER
MISSISSIPPI ARE CURRENTLY MERGING TOGETHER AND BECOMING A MORE
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED AREA OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AS IT
SPREADS INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. SO HOW DOES THIS COMPLEX EVOLVE AND
WHAT EFFECT DOES THIS IT HAVE ON ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

MOST MODELS HAVE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER MISSISSIPPI MOVING
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA NEAR THE I-59 CORRIDOR AND GENERALLY
WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY. SATELLITE BLENDED PRECIP WATER
ESTIMATES INDICATE ATMOSPHERE OF 1.5 INCH MOISTURE WITH POTENTIAL
OF AN INCREASE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
BUT THE CURRENT COLD POOL HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHWARD TOWARD WHAT
INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. THIS SHIFT MAY REALLY THROUGH A WRINKLE
INTO THE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME... INCREASED RAIN AMOUNTS THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY NEAR I-59 CORRIDOR WEST OF I-65. WILL ALSO
START THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE ISSUANCE AS
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA SHORTLY. PART OF THE
COMPLEXITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MORNING CONVECTION. WE ARE
EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SWINGS
ACROSS. THIS WILL IN-TURN LEAD TO A POTENTIAL SOUTHWARD
SURGE/OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE AREA...WHICH APPEARS
TO ALREADY HAVE STARTED. WE ALSO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TODAY. THIS
OUTFLOW MAY CONTAMINATE/DISRUPT THE POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION THAT
WAS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS THE SECOND
UPPER FEATURE AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH THIS EVENING...ANOTHER
BATCH OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE MAIN CHANGE IN OUR THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED BUT STILL NOT ZERO. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION A SMALL CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...
BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ADJUSTED TO FLOODING. RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE STILL IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

THIS REMAINS A HIGHLY COMPLEX SITUATION AND DEPENDENT ON THE
MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENTS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM THAT SWINGS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IS POTENT AND ANY CHANGES
IN THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE STRENGTH OF
THE SECOND BATCH OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD
DOWN WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE WEATHER...SIMPLY INCREASE YOUR
AWARENESS OF THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS AS THE
MESOSCALE DETAILS CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY.

BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONT AFFECTS THE STATE TOWARD WEEKS END AND KEPT THE
20-40 POPS ATTM.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
CIGS/VIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS THE RAIN
MOVES IN. INTERMITTENT IFR CIGS COULD ALSO OCCUR. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT WITH RAIN AND IFR CIGS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BIBB...BLOUNT...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...
ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...JEFFERSON...LAMAR...MARENGO...
MARION...PERRY...PICKENS...RANDOLPH...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...
SUMTER...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

$$

75/87







000
FXUS64 KBMX 140932
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
432 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGHLY COMPLEX SITUATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER
MISSISSIPPI ARE CURRENTLY MERGING TOGETHER AND BECOMING A MORE
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED AREA OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AS IT
SPREADS INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. SO HOW DOES THIS COMPLEX EVOLVE AND
WHAT EFFECT DOES THIS IT HAVE ON ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING.

MOST MODELS HAVE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER MISSISSIPPI MOVING
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA NEAR THE I-59 CORRIDOR AND GENERALLY WEAKENING
THROUGH THE DAY. SATELLITE BLENDED PRECIP WATER ESTIMATES INDICATE
ATMOSPHERE OF 1.5 INCH MOISTURE WITH POTENTIAL OF AN INCREASE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT THE CURRENT
COLD POOL HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHWARD TOWARD WHAT INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE. THIS SHIFT MAY REALLY THROUGH A WRINKLE INTO THE
FORECAST. AT THIS TIME... INCREASED RAIN AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY NEAR I-59 CORRIDOR WEST OF I-65. WILL ALSO START THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE ISSUANCE AS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA SHORTLY. PART OF THE
COMPLEXITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MORNING CONVECTION. WE ARE
EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SWINGS
ACROSS. THIS WILL IN-TURN LEAD TO A POTENTIAL SOUTHWARD
SURGE/OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE AREA...WHICH APPEARS
TO ALREADY HAVE STARTED. WE ALSO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TODAY. THIS
OUTFLOW MAY CONTAMINATE/DISRUPT THE POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION THAT
WAS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS THE SECOND
UPPER FEATURE AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH THIS EVENING...ANOTHER
BATCH OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE MAIN CHANGE IN OUR THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED BUT STILL NOT ZERO. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION A SMALL CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ADJUSTED TO FLOODING. RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THIS REMAINS A HIGHLY COMPLEX SITUATION AND DEPENDENT ON THE
MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENTS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM THAT SWINGS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IS POTENT AND ANY CHANGES
IN THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE STRENGTH OF
THE SECOND BATCH OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD
DOWN WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE WEATHER...SIMPLY INCREASE YOUR
AWARENESS OF THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS AS THE
MESOSCALE DETAILS CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY.

BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER...A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONT AFFECTS THE STATE TOWARD WEEKS END AND KEPT THE
20-40 POPS ATTM.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR POTENTIAL
TIMING ARRIVAL OF SHRA AND THEN LATER TSRA WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
PROGRESSES FROM WEST TO EAST. MVFR CIGS TO ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS WELL. WINDS ARE UP AT SITES SO REDUCED VISIBILITIES MAINLY WITH
RAIN ACTIVITY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME IFR TO BE POSSIBLE BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT A FEW SITES...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AS MUCH GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM BEFORE TOMORROW NIGHT.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

08/MK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  48  52  34  63 /  90 100  40   0   0
ANNISTON    72  47  53  33  64 /  90 100  50   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  71  44  54  34  64 / 100 100  40   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  74  45  56  34  65 / 100 100  20   0   0
CALERA      72  45  54  36  64 / 100 100  40   0   0
AUBURN      74  51  57  36  63 /  50 100  80  10   0
MONTGOMERY  78  52  58  36  67 /  70 100  60   0   0
TROY        81  52  57  33  66 /  50 100  80  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BIBB...BLOUNT...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...
CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...
ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...JEFFERSON...LAMAR...MARENGO...
MARION...PERRY...PICKENS...RANDOLPH...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...
SUMTER...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

$$









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