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000
FXUS64 KBMX 230249
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
949 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA HAS PROVIDED
AN ABNORMALLY DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES DIPPED INTO THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE A FEW LOWER CLOUDS WILL DRIFT IN FROM THE WEST...BUT
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE SO DRY...THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT ADD UP TO MUCH.
WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN A FEW SPOTS. FOG SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD WITH CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 235 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

ABNORMALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. DEWPOINTS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. IT DOESN`T GET MUCH BETTER IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA FOR MID TO LATE MAY. THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.37 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED
FOR MID TO LATE MAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT COULD DROP SOME OF THE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
ELSEWHERE.

THE LAST DRY DAY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE VALUES BEGIN TO CREEP UP. THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND THE SURFACE WINDS WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PLENTY OF
INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S AREAWIDE.

THE BREAK FROM THE WARM HUMID TYPICAL MAY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS DURING THE TIMEFRAME. EXPECT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FIRST.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY. THE SAME GENERAL TREND CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE. THESE
VALUES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE. THE NAM IS THE MOST EXTREME MODEL
WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPE VALUES. FROM THE NAM...THE 0-
6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 35-45 KTS WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
1500-2500 J/KG ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) ARE MUCH
MORE TAME WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS WITH THE 0-6 KM DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30KTS AND SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG WHICH IS MUCH
MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AND FEATURE MORE
TYPICAL LATE MAY WEATHER WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY FLOODING THREAT GOES...THIS MONTH HAS BEEN
ABNORMALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT ANY
RAINFALL WOULD BE BENEFICIAL.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  83  60  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    53  83  63  84  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  56  84  67  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  85  68  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      54  83  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      56  82  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  57  86  67  88  70 /   0   0  10  20  20
TROY        56  85  66  87  69 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 230249
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
949 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA HAS PROVIDED
AN ABNORMALLY DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES DIPPED INTO THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE A FEW LOWER CLOUDS WILL DRIFT IN FROM THE WEST...BUT
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE SO DRY...THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT ADD UP TO MUCH.
WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN A FEW SPOTS. FOG SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD WITH CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

19


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 235 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

ABNORMALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. DEWPOINTS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. IT DOESN`T GET MUCH BETTER IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA FOR MID TO LATE MAY. THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.37 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED
FOR MID TO LATE MAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT COULD DROP SOME OF THE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
ELSEWHERE.

THE LAST DRY DAY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE VALUES BEGIN TO CREEP UP. THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND THE SURFACE WINDS WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PLENTY OF
INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S AREAWIDE.

THE BREAK FROM THE WARM HUMID TYPICAL MAY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS DURING THE TIMEFRAME. EXPECT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FIRST.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY. THE SAME GENERAL TREND CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE. THESE
VALUES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE. THE NAM IS THE MOST EXTREME MODEL
WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPE VALUES. FROM THE NAM...THE 0-
6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 35-45 KTS WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
1500-2500 J/KG ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) ARE MUCH
MORE TAME WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS WITH THE 0-6 KM DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30KTS AND SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG WHICH IS MUCH
MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AND FEATURE MORE
TYPICAL LATE MAY WEATHER WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY FLOODING THREAT GOES...THIS MONTH HAS BEEN
ABNORMALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT ANY
RAINFALL WOULD BE BENEFICIAL.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  83  60  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    53  83  63  84  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  56  84  67  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  85  68  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      54  83  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      56  82  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  57  86  67  88  70 /   0   0  10  20  20
TROY        56  85  66  87  69 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 222337
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ABNORMALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. DEWPOINTS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. IT DOESN`T GET MUCH BETTER IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA FOR MID TO LATE MAY. THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.37 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED
FOR MID TO LATE MAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT COULD DROP SOME OF THE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
ELSEWHERE.

THE LAST DRY DAY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE VALUES BEGIN TO CREEP UP. THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND THE SURFACE WINDS WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PLENTY OF
INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S AREAWIDE.

THE BREAK FROM THE WARM HUMID TYPICAL MAY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS DURING THE TIMEFRAME. EXPECT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FIRST.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY. THE SAME GENERAL TREND CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE. THESE
VALUES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE. THE NAM IS THE MOST EXTREME MODEL
WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPE VALUES. FROM THE NAM...THE 0-
6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 35-45 KTS WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
1500-2500 J/KG ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) ARE MUCH
MORE TAME WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS WITH THE 0-6 KM DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30KTS AND SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG WHICH IS MUCH
MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AND FEATURE MORE
TYPICAL LATE MAY WEATHER WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY FLOODING THREAT GOES...THIS MONTH HAS BEEN
ABNORMALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT ANY
RAINFALL WOULD BE BENEFICIAL.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD WITH CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  83  60  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    54  83  63  84  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  55  84  67  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  85  68  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      55  83  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      58  82  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  58  86  67  88  70 /   0   0  10  20  20
TROY        57  85  66  87  69 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 222337
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ABNORMALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. DEWPOINTS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. IT DOESN`T GET MUCH BETTER IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA FOR MID TO LATE MAY. THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.37 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED
FOR MID TO LATE MAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT COULD DROP SOME OF THE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
ELSEWHERE.

THE LAST DRY DAY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE VALUES BEGIN TO CREEP UP. THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND THE SURFACE WINDS WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PLENTY OF
INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S AREAWIDE.

THE BREAK FROM THE WARM HUMID TYPICAL MAY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS DURING THE TIMEFRAME. EXPECT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FIRST.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY. THE SAME GENERAL TREND CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE. THESE
VALUES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE. THE NAM IS THE MOST EXTREME MODEL
WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPE VALUES. FROM THE NAM...THE 0-
6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 35-45 KTS WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
1500-2500 J/KG ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) ARE MUCH
MORE TAME WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS WITH THE 0-6 KM DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30KTS AND SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG WHICH IS MUCH
MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AND FEATURE MORE
TYPICAL LATE MAY WEATHER WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY FLOODING THREAT GOES...THIS MONTH HAS BEEN
ABNORMALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT ANY
RAINFALL WOULD BE BENEFICIAL.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD WITH CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  83  60  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    54  83  63  84  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  55  84  67  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  85  68  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      55  83  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      58  82  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  58  86  67  88  70 /   0   0  10  20  20
TROY        57  85  66  87  69 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 222337
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ABNORMALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. DEWPOINTS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. IT DOESN`T GET MUCH BETTER IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA FOR MID TO LATE MAY. THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.37 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED
FOR MID TO LATE MAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT COULD DROP SOME OF THE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
ELSEWHERE.

THE LAST DRY DAY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE VALUES BEGIN TO CREEP UP. THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND THE SURFACE WINDS WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PLENTY OF
INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S AREAWIDE.

THE BREAK FROM THE WARM HUMID TYPICAL MAY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS DURING THE TIMEFRAME. EXPECT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FIRST.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY. THE SAME GENERAL TREND CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE. THESE
VALUES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE. THE NAM IS THE MOST EXTREME MODEL
WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPE VALUES. FROM THE NAM...THE 0-
6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 35-45 KTS WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
1500-2500 J/KG ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) ARE MUCH
MORE TAME WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS WITH THE 0-6 KM DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30KTS AND SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG WHICH IS MUCH
MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AND FEATURE MORE
TYPICAL LATE MAY WEATHER WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY FLOODING THREAT GOES...THIS MONTH HAS BEEN
ABNORMALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT ANY
RAINFALL WOULD BE BENEFICIAL.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD WITH CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  83  60  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    54  83  63  84  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  55  84  67  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  85  68  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      55  83  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      58  82  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  58  86  67  88  70 /   0   0  10  20  20
TROY        57  85  66  87  69 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 221935
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
235 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ABNORMALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. DEWPOINTS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. IT DOESN`T GET MUCH BETTER IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA FOR MID TO LATE MAY. THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.37 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED
FOR MID TO LATE MAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT COULD DROP SOME OF THE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
ELSEWHERE.

THE LAST DRY DAY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE VALUES BEGIN TO CREEP UP. THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND THE SURFACE WINDS WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PLENTY OF
INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S AREAWIDE.

THE BREAK FROM THE WARM HUMID TYPICAL MAY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS DURING THE TIMEFRAME. EXPECT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FIRST.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY. THE SAME GENERAL TREND CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE. THESE
VALUES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE. THE NAM IS THE MOST EXTREME MODEL
WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPE VALUES. FROM THE NAM...THE 0-
6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 35-45 KTS WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
1500-2500 J/KG ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) ARE MUCH
MORE TAME WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS WITH THE 0-6 KM DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30KTS AND SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG WHICH IS MUCH
MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AND FEATURE MORE
TYPICAL LATE MAY WEATHER WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY FLOODING THREAT GOES...THIS MONTH HAS BEEN
ABNORMALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT ANY
RAINFALL WOULD BE BENEFICIAL.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

32/DAVIS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  83  60  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    54  83  63  84  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  55  84  67  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  85  68  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      55  83  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      58  82  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  58  86  67  88  70 /   0   0  10  20  20
TROY        57  85  66  87  69 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 221935
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
235 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ABNORMALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. DEWPOINTS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. IT DOESN`T GET MUCH BETTER IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA FOR MID TO LATE MAY. THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.37 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED
FOR MID TO LATE MAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT COULD DROP SOME OF THE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
ELSEWHERE.

THE LAST DRY DAY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE VALUES BEGIN TO CREEP UP. THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND THE SURFACE WINDS WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PLENTY OF
INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S AREAWIDE.

THE BREAK FROM THE WARM HUMID TYPICAL MAY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS DURING THE TIMEFRAME. EXPECT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FIRST.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY. THE SAME GENERAL TREND CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE. THESE
VALUES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE. THE NAM IS THE MOST EXTREME MODEL
WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPE VALUES. FROM THE NAM...THE 0-
6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 35-45 KTS WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
1500-2500 J/KG ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) ARE MUCH
MORE TAME WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS WITH THE 0-6 KM DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30KTS AND SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG WHICH IS MUCH
MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AND FEATURE MORE
TYPICAL LATE MAY WEATHER WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY FLOODING THREAT GOES...THIS MONTH HAS BEEN
ABNORMALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT ANY
RAINFALL WOULD BE BENEFICIAL.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

32/DAVIS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  83  60  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    54  83  63  84  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  55  84  67  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  85  68  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      55  83  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      58  82  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  58  86  67  88  70 /   0   0  10  20  20
TROY        57  85  66  87  69 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 221935
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
235 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ABNORMALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. DEWPOINTS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. IT DOESN`T GET MUCH BETTER IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA FOR MID TO LATE MAY. THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING
INDICATED 0.37 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS NEAR THE MINIMUM VALUE OBSERVED
FOR MID TO LATE MAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT COULD DROP SOME OF THE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST DOWN IN THE UPPER 40S WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
ELSEWHERE.

THE LAST DRY DAY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE VALUES BEGIN TO CREEP UP. THE HEART OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND THE SURFACE WINDS WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PLENTY OF
INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S AREAWIDE.

THE BREAK FROM THE WARM HUMID TYPICAL MAY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN
END ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE IN FULL FORCE
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS DURING THE TIMEFRAME. EXPECT BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FIRST.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE WEST BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
FEATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY. THE SAME GENERAL TREND CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE. THESE
VALUES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK INTO THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE. THE NAM IS THE MOST EXTREME MODEL
WITH 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPE VALUES. FROM THE NAM...THE 0-
6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 35-45 KTS WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
1500-2500 J/KG ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) ARE MUCH
MORE TAME WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS WITH THE 0-6 KM DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-30KTS AND SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG WHICH IS MUCH
MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE HWO AND FEATURE MORE
TYPICAL LATE MAY WEATHER WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY FLOODING THREAT GOES...THIS MONTH HAS BEEN
ABNORMALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT ANY
RAINFALL WOULD BE BENEFICIAL.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

32/DAVIS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  83  60  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    54  83  63  84  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  55  84  67  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  55  85  68  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      55  83  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
AUBURN      58  82  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  58  86  67  88  70 /   0   0  10  20  20
TROY        57  85  66  87  69 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 221731
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL START THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 60S AT THIS HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AS THE AREA REMAINS IN LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST...SO NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 80. MEANWHILE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND THE UPDATE IS ALREADY
OUT.

32/DAVIS


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

32/DAVIS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  83  60  84  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    55  83  62  85  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  57  85  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  57  86  66  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      56  84  65  87  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      59  83  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  60  87  65  88  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
TROY        59  86  65  87  69 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 221731
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL START THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 60S AT THIS HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AS THE AREA REMAINS IN LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST...SO NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 80. MEANWHILE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND THE UPDATE IS ALREADY
OUT.

32/DAVIS


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

32/DAVIS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  83  60  84  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    55  83  62  85  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  57  85  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  57  86  66  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      56  84  65  87  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      59  83  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  60  87  65  88  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
TROY        59  86  65  87  69 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 221731
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL START THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 60S AT THIS HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AS THE AREA REMAINS IN LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST...SO NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 80. MEANWHILE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND THE UPDATE IS ALREADY
OUT.

32/DAVIS


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

32/DAVIS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  83  60  84  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    55  83  62  85  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  57  85  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  57  86  66  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      56  84  65  87  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      59  83  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  60  87  65  88  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
TROY        59  86  65  87  69 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 221731
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL START THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 60S AT THIS HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AS THE AREA REMAINS IN LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST...SO NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 80. MEANWHILE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND THE UPDATE IS ALREADY
OUT.

32/DAVIS


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.

32/DAVIS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  83  60  84  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    55  83  62  85  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  57  85  65  86  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  57  86  66  87  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
CALERA      56  84  65  87  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      59  83  63  84  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  60  87  65  88  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
TROY        59  86  65  87  69 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 221612
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1112 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL START THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 60S AT THIS HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AS THE AREA REMAINS IN LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST...SO NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 80. MEANWHILE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND THE UPDATE IS ALREADY
OUT.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  52  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    77  55  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  57  85  65  86 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  77  57  86  66  87 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      76  56  84  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      78  59  83  63  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  80  60  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        80  59  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 221612
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1112 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL START THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 60S AT THIS HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AS THE AREA REMAINS IN LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST...SO NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 80. MEANWHILE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND THE UPDATE IS ALREADY
OUT.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  52  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    77  55  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  57  85  65  86 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  77  57  86  66  87 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      76  56  84  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      78  59  83  63  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  80  60  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        80  59  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 221612
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1112 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL START THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 60S AT THIS HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AS THE AREA REMAINS IN LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST...SO NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 80. MEANWHILE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND THE UPDATE IS ALREADY
OUT.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  52  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    77  55  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  57  85  65  86 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  77  57  86  66  87 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      76  56  84  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      78  59  83  63  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  80  60  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        80  59  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 221612
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1112 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL START THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 60S AT THIS HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AS THE AREA REMAINS IN LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST...SO NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 80. MEANWHILE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND THE UPDATE IS ALREADY
OUT.

32/DAVIS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  52  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    77  55  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  57  85  65  86 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  77  57  86  66  87 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      76  56  84  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      78  59  83  63  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  80  60  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        80  59  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 221115
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
615 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  52  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    78  55  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  57  85  65  86 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  78  57  86  66  87 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      78  56  84  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      79  59  83  63  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  82  60  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        82  59  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 221115
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
615 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  52  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    78  55  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  57  85  65  86 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  78  57  86  66  87 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      78  56  84  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      79  59  83  63  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  82  60  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        82  59  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 221115
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
615 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  52  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    78  55  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  57  85  65  86 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  78  57  86  66  87 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      78  56  84  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      79  59  83  63  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  82  60  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        82  59  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 221115
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
615 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  52  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    78  55  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  57  85  65  86 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  78  57  86  66  87 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      78  56  84  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      79  59  83  63  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  82  60  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        82  59  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 220831
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS ARE STILL ADVECTING THROUGH THE AREA AND WE WILL BE UP AND
DOWN...VFR TO MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT CLOSER TO
SUNRISE AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON WE WILL BE BACK TO VFR WITH A NORTH
WIND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  52  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    78  55  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  57  85  65  86 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  78  57  86  66  87 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      78  56  84  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      79  59  83  63  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  82  60  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        82  59  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 220831
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
331 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LINGERED MUCH
LONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN. A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SPRING DAY IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 1024MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TODAY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MID 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. IN OTHER WORDS...PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TO START OFF YOUR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALSO...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THAT WILL
BRING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND QUICKLY INCREASE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN COMING UP
FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TRIES
TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. IN RETURN WE`LL GET SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AS UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE AND NOT
EVERYONE IS GOING TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THOSE THAT
DO SEE RAINFALL WILL SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES (OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR). CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WARRANT RAISING POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE UNSETTLED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUING.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS ARE STILL ADVECTING THROUGH THE AREA AND WE WILL BE UP AND
DOWN...VFR TO MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT CLOSER TO
SUNRISE AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON WE WILL BE BACK TO VFR WITH A NORTH
WIND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     76  52  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANNISTON    78  55  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  76  57  85  65  86 /   0   0   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  78  57  86  66  87 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      78  56  84  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      79  59  83  63  84 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  82  60  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        82  59  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 220447
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO BREAK UP THIS EVENING BUT SKIES
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO COOL A BIT QUICKER THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THANKS TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND BUT STILL THINK LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH SEEM REASONABLE. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS ARE STILL ADVECTING THROUGH THE AREA AND WE WILL BE UP AND
DOWN...VFR TO MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT CLOSER TO
SUNRISE AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON WE WILL BE BACK TO VFR WITH A NORTH
WIND.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 220447
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO BREAK UP THIS EVENING BUT SKIES
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO COOL A BIT QUICKER THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THANKS TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND BUT STILL THINK LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH SEEM REASONABLE. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS ARE STILL ADVECTING THROUGH THE AREA AND WE WILL BE UP AND
DOWN...VFR TO MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT CLOSER TO
SUNRISE AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON WE WILL BE BACK TO VFR WITH A NORTH
WIND.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 220447
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO BREAK UP THIS EVENING BUT SKIES
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO COOL A BIT QUICKER THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THANKS TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND BUT STILL THINK LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH SEEM REASONABLE. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLOUDS ARE STILL ADVECTING THROUGH THE AREA AND WE WILL BE UP AND
DOWN...VFR TO MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT CLOSER TO
SUNRISE AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON WE WILL BE BACK TO VFR WITH A NORTH
WIND.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 220145
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
845 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO BREAK UP THIS EVENING BUT SKIES
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO COOL A BIT QUICKER THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THANKS TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND BUT STILL THINK LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH SEEM REASONABLE. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STARTING TO FINALLY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR CIGS AT THE NORTHERN
SITES..AND EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR WITH SCT
CIG GROUPS AND A NORTH WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  77  53  83  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    51  78  55  84  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  51  77  57  85  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  51  79  58  86  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      51  78  57  84  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      55  79  59  83  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  57  81  60  88  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        57  82  59  87  65 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 220145
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
845 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO BREAK UP THIS EVENING BUT SKIES
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO COOL A BIT QUICKER THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THANKS TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND BUT STILL THINK LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH SEEM REASONABLE. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STARTING TO FINALLY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR CIGS AT THE NORTHERN
SITES..AND EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR WITH SCT
CIG GROUPS AND A NORTH WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  77  53  83  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    51  78  55  84  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  51  77  57  85  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  51  79  58  86  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      51  78  57  84  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      55  79  59  83  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  57  81  60  88  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        57  82  59  87  65 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 212308
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
610 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA GIVING
THE FORECAST AREA A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TYPICAL OF THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AT 3PM
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 80S ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. SOME OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RD`S OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE EVENING AND SURFACE WINDS
OF AROUND 5 KTS WILL PREVENT THESE TEMPERATURES FROM BEING
REALIZED. EXPECT 40S WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES OR SO WITH SOME OF THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S. THERE IS A
PRETTY LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND IT WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT ANOTHER PLEASANT MAY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL ALONG THE GULF
COAST DURING THIS TIME KEEPING THE MOIST AIR CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT
AS THE STORY GOES IT IS MAY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE DRIER AIR
WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG.

ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH RELOCATES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS AND PW VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID 60S.
ALOFT...HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST A TROUGH DIGS
IN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BECOME SEMI-
PERMANENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA IN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD MEMORIAL DAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HAVE MENTIONED AROUND 30-50% CHANCE EACH AFTERNOON WITH PW
VALUES OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STARTING TO FINALLY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR CIGS AT THE NORTHERN
SITES..AND EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR WITH SCT
CIG GROUPS AND A NORTH WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 212308
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
610 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA GIVING
THE FORECAST AREA A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TYPICAL OF THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AT 3PM
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 80S ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. SOME OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RD`S OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE EVENING AND SURFACE WINDS
OF AROUND 5 KTS WILL PREVENT THESE TEMPERATURES FROM BEING
REALIZED. EXPECT 40S WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES OR SO WITH SOME OF THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S. THERE IS A
PRETTY LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND IT WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT ANOTHER PLEASANT MAY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL ALONG THE GULF
COAST DURING THIS TIME KEEPING THE MOIST AIR CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT
AS THE STORY GOES IT IS MAY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE DRIER AIR
WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG.

ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH RELOCATES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS AND PW VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID 60S.
ALOFT...HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST A TROUGH DIGS
IN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BECOME SEMI-
PERMANENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA IN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD MEMORIAL DAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HAVE MENTIONED AROUND 30-50% CHANCE EACH AFTERNOON WITH PW
VALUES OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STARTING TO FINALLY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR CIGS AT THE NORTHERN
SITES..AND EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR WITH SCT
CIG GROUPS AND A NORTH WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 212308
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
610 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA GIVING
THE FORECAST AREA A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TYPICAL OF THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AT 3PM
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 80S ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. SOME OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RD`S OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE EVENING AND SURFACE WINDS
OF AROUND 5 KTS WILL PREVENT THESE TEMPERATURES FROM BEING
REALIZED. EXPECT 40S WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES OR SO WITH SOME OF THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S. THERE IS A
PRETTY LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND IT WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT ANOTHER PLEASANT MAY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL ALONG THE GULF
COAST DURING THIS TIME KEEPING THE MOIST AIR CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT
AS THE STORY GOES IT IS MAY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE DRIER AIR
WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG.

ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH RELOCATES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS AND PW VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID 60S.
ALOFT...HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST A TROUGH DIGS
IN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BECOME SEMI-
PERMANENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA IN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD MEMORIAL DAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HAVE MENTIONED AROUND 30-50% CHANCE EACH AFTERNOON WITH PW
VALUES OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STARTING TO FINALLY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR CIGS AT THE NORTHERN
SITES..AND EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR WITH SCT
CIG GROUPS AND A NORTH WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 212308
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
610 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA GIVING
THE FORECAST AREA A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TYPICAL OF THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AT 3PM
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 80S ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. SOME OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RD`S OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE EVENING AND SURFACE WINDS
OF AROUND 5 KTS WILL PREVENT THESE TEMPERATURES FROM BEING
REALIZED. EXPECT 40S WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES OR SO WITH SOME OF THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S. THERE IS A
PRETTY LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND IT WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT ANOTHER PLEASANT MAY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL ALONG THE GULF
COAST DURING THIS TIME KEEPING THE MOIST AIR CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT
AS THE STORY GOES IT IS MAY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE DRIER AIR
WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG.

ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH RELOCATES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS AND PW VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID 60S.
ALOFT...HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST A TROUGH DIGS
IN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BECOME SEMI-
PERMANENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA IN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD MEMORIAL DAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HAVE MENTIONED AROUND 30-50% CHANCE EACH AFTERNOON WITH PW
VALUES OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STARTING TO FINALLY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR CIGS AT THE NORTHERN
SITES..AND EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR WITH SCT
CIG GROUPS AND A NORTH WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 212000
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
300 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA GIVING
THE FORECAST AREA A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TYPICAL OF THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AT 3PM
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 80S ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. SOME OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RD`S OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE EVENING AND SURFACE WINDS
OF AROUND 5 KTS WILL PREVENT THESE TEMPERATURES FROM BEING
REALIZED. EXPECT 40S WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES OR SO WITH SOME OF THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S. THERE IS A
PRETTY LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND IT WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT ANOTHER PLEASANT MAY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL ALONG THE GULF
COAST DURING THIS TIME KEEPING THE MOIST AIR CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT
AS THE STORY GOES IT IS MAY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE DRIER AIR
WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG.

ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH RELOCATES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS AND PW VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID 60S.
ALOFT...HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST A TROUGH DIGS
IN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BECOME SEMI-
PERMANENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA IN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD MEMORIAL DAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HAVE MENTIONED AROUND 30-50% CHANCE EACH AFTERNOON WITH PW
VALUES OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STRATOCUMULUS WILL AFFECT PLENTY OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL INCREASE THE TIME THESE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE AREA. IT
APPEARS THAT MGM/TOI WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGES OF THE CLOUDS BUT
ALSO SHOULD BE JUST INTO VFR. THE REMAINING NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL HAVE BOUTS IF MVFR CLOUDINESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.

OVERALL...ADDED SEVERAL HOURS ONTO THE MVFR CLOUDS AND KEPT THE
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTS IN THE 18 TO 23 KT RANGE.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  77  53  83  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    51  78  55  84  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  51  77  57  85  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  51  79  58  86  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      51  78  57  84  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      55  79  59  83  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  57  81  60  88  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        57  82  59  87  65 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 212000
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
300 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA GIVING
THE FORECAST AREA A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TYPICAL OF THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AT 3PM
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 80S ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. SOME OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RD`S OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE EVENING AND SURFACE WINDS
OF AROUND 5 KTS WILL PREVENT THESE TEMPERATURES FROM BEING
REALIZED. EXPECT 40S WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES OR SO WITH SOME OF THE COOLER SHELTERED LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S. THERE IS A
PRETTY LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND IT WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

EXPECT ANOTHER PLEASANT MAY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL ALONG THE GULF
COAST DURING THIS TIME KEEPING THE MOIST AIR CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT
AS THE STORY GOES IT IS MAY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE DRIER AIR
WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG.

ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH RELOCATES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS AND PW VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID 60S.
ALOFT...HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST A TROUGH DIGS
IN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BECOME SEMI-
PERMANENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA IN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD MEMORIAL DAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HAVE MENTIONED AROUND 30-50% CHANCE EACH AFTERNOON WITH PW
VALUES OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STRATOCUMULUS WILL AFFECT PLENTY OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL INCREASE THE TIME THESE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE AREA. IT
APPEARS THAT MGM/TOI WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGES OF THE CLOUDS BUT
ALSO SHOULD BE JUST INTO VFR. THE REMAINING NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL HAVE BOUTS IF MVFR CLOUDINESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.

OVERALL...ADDED SEVERAL HOURS ONTO THE MVFR CLOUDS AND KEPT THE
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTS IN THE 18 TO 23 KT RANGE.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  77  53  83  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    51  78  55  84  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  51  77  57  85  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  51  79  58  86  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      51  78  57  84  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      55  79  59  83  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  57  81  60  88  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        57  82  59  87  65 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 211731
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1231 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION.

POST FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERED A LARGE CHUNK OF REAL ESTATE
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO TEXAS. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE THESE
CLOUDS ERODING AND GONE BY AROUND 1PM...BUT THINK THESE CLOUDS
WILL HOLD ON LONGER. THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION AROUND THE EDGES
OF THE CLOUDS...BUT A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP
THE REMAINING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. UNDOUBTEDLY THERE WILL BE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND WE WILL MOST LIKELY END UP WITH SOME
AREA COVERED MUCH LONGER WHILE ALL OTHER LOCATIONS BEGIN CLEARING
LATER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THESE CLOUDS...ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE CLOUD ZONE NORTH. SOME
MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 MPH IS POSSIBLE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STRATOCUMULUS WILL AFFECT PLENTY OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL INCREASE THE TIME THESE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE AREA. IT
APPEARS THAT MGM/TOI WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGES OF THE CLOUDS BUT
ALSO SHOULD BE JUST INTO VFR. THE REMAINING NORTHERN TERMINALS
WILL HAVE BOUTS IF MVFR CLOUDINESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.

OVERALL...ADDED SEVERAL HOURS ONTO THE MVFR CLOUDS AND KEPT THE
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTS IN THE 18 TO 23 KT RANGE.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     72  49  77  54  82 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    75  51  78  56  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  72  52  78  58  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  73  53  79  59  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      74  52  79  58  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      78  55  80  60  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  81  57  82  60  88 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        86  57  83  59  88 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 211120
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THE FRONT STRETCHING
GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR BASED ON THE
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON SURFACE OBS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY WHICH WILL FILTER IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR FROM THE NORTH. WE`LL SEE A WIDE CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HALEYVILLE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 70
DEGREES...WHILE EUFAULA COULD RISE CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE THE COOLER
AIR REALLY BEGINS TO FILTER INTO BARBOUR COUNTY. I`VE REMOVED ALL
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH JUST TOO MUCH DRY AIR
MOVING IN TO PREVENT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. WE`LL
SEE VERY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...OR PERHAPS EVEN "CRISP"
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH. 40S WILL BE LIKELY FOR
THOSE SPOTS...WHILE LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THAT`S
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BUT NOTHING OVERLY EXTREME.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING EACH DAY. WE`LL BE BACK IN THE MID AND
UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
DEVELOPING RIDGE WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE POTENT LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL TRY TO SCOUR OUT THE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL
BE "SANDWICHED" IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WHICH WILL
ALLOW UPPER SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA MUCH LIKE
WE SAW THIS PAST WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS WIDESPREAD AT TIMES BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF
EACH SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH. WE`LL ALSO BE STUCK IN A VERY
TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. PWATS OF
1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED BY LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WITHIN MORE
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...SO ENJOY THE DRY AND
PLEASANT HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE YOU
CAN!

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVERALL JUST A FEW RESTRICTED CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW...TCL BR IS THE
BIGGEST ONE. THERE ARE SOME MVFR CIGS BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST THAT WILL TAKE OVER AT ALL NORTHERN SITES BY 14Z AND
POSSIBLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTHERN SITES AFTER 15Z. VFR RETURNS
AFTER 18Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE BRISK AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. AFTER 3Z CONDITIONS REALLY IMPROVE.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  49  77  54  82 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    76  51  78  56  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  75  52  78  58  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  78  53  79  59  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      77  52  79  58  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      81  55  80  60  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  84  57  82  60  88 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        85  57  83  59  88 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 211120
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THE FRONT STRETCHING
GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR BASED ON THE
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON SURFACE OBS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY WHICH WILL FILTER IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR FROM THE NORTH. WE`LL SEE A WIDE CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HALEYVILLE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 70
DEGREES...WHILE EUFAULA COULD RISE CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE THE COOLER
AIR REALLY BEGINS TO FILTER INTO BARBOUR COUNTY. I`VE REMOVED ALL
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH JUST TOO MUCH DRY AIR
MOVING IN TO PREVENT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. WE`LL
SEE VERY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...OR PERHAPS EVEN "CRISP"
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH. 40S WILL BE LIKELY FOR
THOSE SPOTS...WHILE LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THAT`S
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BUT NOTHING OVERLY EXTREME.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING EACH DAY. WE`LL BE BACK IN THE MID AND
UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
DEVELOPING RIDGE WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE POTENT LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL TRY TO SCOUR OUT THE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL
BE "SANDWICHED" IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WHICH WILL
ALLOW UPPER SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA MUCH LIKE
WE SAW THIS PAST WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS WIDESPREAD AT TIMES BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF
EACH SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH. WE`LL ALSO BE STUCK IN A VERY
TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. PWATS OF
1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED BY LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WITHIN MORE
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...SO ENJOY THE DRY AND
PLEASANT HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE YOU
CAN!

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVERALL JUST A FEW RESTRICTED CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW...TCL BR IS THE
BIGGEST ONE. THERE ARE SOME MVFR CIGS BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST THAT WILL TAKE OVER AT ALL NORTHERN SITES BY 14Z AND
POSSIBLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTHERN SITES AFTER 15Z. VFR RETURNS
AFTER 18Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE BRISK AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. AFTER 3Z CONDITIONS REALLY IMPROVE.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  49  77  54  82 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    76  51  78  56  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  75  52  78  58  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  78  53  79  59  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      77  52  79  58  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      81  55  80  60  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  84  57  82  60  88 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        85  57  83  59  88 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 210853
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
353 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THE FRONT STRETCHING
GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR BASED ON THE
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON SURFACE OBS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY WHICH WILL FILTER IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR FROM THE NORTH. WE`LL SEE A WIDE CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HALEYVILLE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 70
DEGREES...WHILE EUFAULA COULD RISE CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE THE COOLER
AIR REALLY BEGINS TO FILTER INTO BARBOUR COUNTY. I`VE REMOVED ALL
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH JUST TOO MUCH DRY AIR
MOVING IN TO PREVENT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. WE`LL
SEE VERY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...OR PERHAPS EVEN "CRISP"
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH. 40S WILL BE LIKELY FOR
THOSE SPOTS...WHILE LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THAT`S
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BUT NOTHING OVERLY EXTREME.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING EACH DAY. WE`LL BE BACK IN THE MID AND
UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
DEVELOPING RIDGE WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE POTENT LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL TRY TO SCOUR OUT THE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL
BE "SANDWICHED" IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WHICH WILL
ALLOW UPPER SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA MUCH LIKE
WE SAW THIS PAST WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS WIDESPREAD AT TIMES BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF
EACH SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH. WE`LL ALSO BE STUCK IN A VERY
TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. PWATS OF
1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED BY LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WITHIN MORE
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...SO ENJOY THE DRY AND
PLEASANT HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE YOU
CAN!

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TO WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
NOTICED BY THE SHARP WIND SHIFT AND SPEED INCREASE AS THE FRONT
PASSES. SOME LOWER...PERHAPS IFR...CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE PRE AND POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT RATHER
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  49  77  54  82 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    76  51  78  56  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  75  52  78  58  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  78  53  79  59  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      77  52  79  58  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      81  55  80  60  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  84  57  82  60  88 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        85  57  83  59  88 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 210853
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
353 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THE FRONT STRETCHING
GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR BASED ON THE
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON SURFACE OBS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY WHICH WILL FILTER IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR FROM THE NORTH. WE`LL SEE A WIDE CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HALEYVILLE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 70
DEGREES...WHILE EUFAULA COULD RISE CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE THE COOLER
AIR REALLY BEGINS TO FILTER INTO BARBOUR COUNTY. I`VE REMOVED ALL
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH JUST TOO MUCH DRY AIR
MOVING IN TO PREVENT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. WE`LL
SEE VERY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...OR PERHAPS EVEN "CRISP"
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH. 40S WILL BE LIKELY FOR
THOSE SPOTS...WHILE LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THAT`S
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BUT NOTHING OVERLY EXTREME.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING EACH DAY. WE`LL BE BACK IN THE MID AND
UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
DEVELOPING RIDGE WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE POTENT LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL TRY TO SCOUR OUT THE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL
BE "SANDWICHED" IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WHICH WILL
ALLOW UPPER SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA MUCH LIKE
WE SAW THIS PAST WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS WIDESPREAD AT TIMES BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF
EACH SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH. WE`LL ALSO BE STUCK IN A VERY
TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. PWATS OF
1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED BY LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WITHIN MORE
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...SO ENJOY THE DRY AND
PLEASANT HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE YOU
CAN!

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TO WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
NOTICED BY THE SHARP WIND SHIFT AND SPEED INCREASE AS THE FRONT
PASSES. SOME LOWER...PERHAPS IFR...CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE PRE AND POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT RATHER
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  49  77  54  82 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    76  51  78  56  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  75  52  78  58  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  78  53  79  59  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
CALERA      77  52  79  58  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      81  55  80  60  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  84  57  82  60  88 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        85  57  83  59  88 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 210426
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR WAS PRETTY ACTIVE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF
STRONG STORMS PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE HAS BEEN
A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AND
EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU 06Z BUT DON`T EXPECT MUCH OF
ANYTHING OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS MOVING INTO THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPS
ARE STILL ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE LOW 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TO WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
NOTICED BY THE SHARP WIND SHIFT AND SPEED INCREASE AS THE FRONT
PASSES. SOME LOWER...PERHAPS IFR...CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE PRE AND POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT RATHER
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 210426
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR WAS PRETTY ACTIVE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF
STRONG STORMS PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE HAS BEEN
A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AND
EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU 06Z BUT DON`T EXPECT MUCH OF
ANYTHING OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS MOVING INTO THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPS
ARE STILL ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE LOW 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TO WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
NOTICED BY THE SHARP WIND SHIFT AND SPEED INCREASE AS THE FRONT
PASSES. SOME LOWER...PERHAPS IFR...CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE PRE AND POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT RATHER
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 210426
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR WAS PRETTY ACTIVE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF
STRONG STORMS PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE HAS BEEN
A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AND
EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU 06Z BUT DON`T EXPECT MUCH OF
ANYTHING OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS MOVING INTO THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPS
ARE STILL ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE LOW 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TO WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
NOTICED BY THE SHARP WIND SHIFT AND SPEED INCREASE AS THE FRONT
PASSES. SOME LOWER...PERHAPS IFR...CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE PRE AND POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT RATHER
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 210058
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
758 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING WEATHER AND 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR WAS PRETTY ACTIVE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF
STRONG STORMS PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE HAS BEEN
A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AND
EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU 06Z BUT DON`T EXPECT MUCH OF
ANYTHING OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS MOVING INTO THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPS
ARE STILL ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE LOW 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FEW STORMS ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD MOVE
NEAR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE DECREASING. IN THE SOUTH...SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THRU 02Z. CIGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AREA WIDE
BUT SOME POST-FRONTAL STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THRU
SUNRISE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT IN
THE SOUTH THEN THERE COULD BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. WINDS
WILL SWITCH FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING
BEHINDTHE FRONT.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TODAY KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS
ALL MORNING BUT HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE COVERAGE. IT ALSO HAS A
LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING.
THIS MIGHT ALSO BE OVERDONE BUT CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TO SEE
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE FRONT IS APPROACHING. WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP. LATER ON TONIGHT AND TOMORROW A MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
DRYING US OUT AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD
AIRMASS CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S NORTH AND 80S
SOUTH AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO 60.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS AS WELL AS
LOWS IN THE 60S FOR EVERYONE. THE REGION LOOKS TO HAVE AN UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST. CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE COVERED BY THE RIDGE JUST ENOUGH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS SCATTERED. BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE GETS SQUEEZED FARTHER TO THE EAST OPENING
UP THE AREA FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THAT FEATURE MIGHT BE
OVERDONE AS ITS JUST HARD TO MOVE THOSE BULLISH RIDGES THIS TIME
OF YEAR...SO WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE IN THE FAR EXTENDED.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  75  50  77  54 /  50  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    65  77  53  78  56 /  50  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  65  77  55  79  58 /  50  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  66  80  56  79  59 /  50  10   0   0   0
CALERA      67  78  56  79  58 /  50  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      67  82  57  80  60 /  30  20  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  69  85  59  82  61 /  50  20  10   0   0
TROY        69  87  60  83  61 /  50  20  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 210058
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
758 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING WEATHER AND 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR WAS PRETTY ACTIVE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF
STRONG STORMS PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE HAS BEEN
A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AND
EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU 06Z BUT DON`T EXPECT MUCH OF
ANYTHING OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS MOVING INTO THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPS
ARE STILL ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE LOW 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FEW STORMS ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD MOVE
NEAR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE DECREASING. IN THE SOUTH...SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THRU 02Z. CIGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AREA WIDE
BUT SOME POST-FRONTAL STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THRU
SUNRISE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT IN
THE SOUTH THEN THERE COULD BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. WINDS
WILL SWITCH FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING
BEHINDTHE FRONT.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TODAY KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS
ALL MORNING BUT HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE COVERAGE. IT ALSO HAS A
LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING.
THIS MIGHT ALSO BE OVERDONE BUT CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TO SEE
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE FRONT IS APPROACHING. WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP. LATER ON TONIGHT AND TOMORROW A MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
DRYING US OUT AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD
AIRMASS CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S NORTH AND 80S
SOUTH AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO 60.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS AS WELL AS
LOWS IN THE 60S FOR EVERYONE. THE REGION LOOKS TO HAVE AN UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST. CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE COVERED BY THE RIDGE JUST ENOUGH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS SCATTERED. BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE GETS SQUEEZED FARTHER TO THE EAST OPENING
UP THE AREA FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THAT FEATURE MIGHT BE
OVERDONE AS ITS JUST HARD TO MOVE THOSE BULLISH RIDGES THIS TIME
OF YEAR...SO WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE IN THE FAR EXTENDED.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  75  50  77  54 /  50  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    65  77  53  78  56 /  50  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  65  77  55  79  58 /  50  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  66  80  56  79  59 /  50  10   0   0   0
CALERA      67  78  56  79  58 /  50  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      67  82  57  80  60 /  30  20  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  69  85  59  82  61 /  50  20  10   0   0
TROY        69  87  60  83  61 /  50  20  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 210058
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
758 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING WEATHER AND 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR WAS PRETTY ACTIVE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF
STRONG STORMS PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE HAS BEEN
A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AND
EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU 06Z BUT DON`T EXPECT MUCH OF
ANYTHING OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS MOVING INTO THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPS
ARE STILL ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE LOW 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FEW STORMS ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD MOVE
NEAR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE DECREASING. IN THE SOUTH...SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THRU 02Z. CIGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AREA WIDE
BUT SOME POST-FRONTAL STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THRU
SUNRISE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT IN
THE SOUTH THEN THERE COULD BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. WINDS
WILL SWITCH FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING
BEHINDTHE FRONT.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TODAY KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS
ALL MORNING BUT HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE COVERAGE. IT ALSO HAS A
LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING.
THIS MIGHT ALSO BE OVERDONE BUT CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TO SEE
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE FRONT IS APPROACHING. WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP. LATER ON TONIGHT AND TOMORROW A MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
DRYING US OUT AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD
AIRMASS CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S NORTH AND 80S
SOUTH AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO 60.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS AS WELL AS
LOWS IN THE 60S FOR EVERYONE. THE REGION LOOKS TO HAVE AN UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST. CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE COVERED BY THE RIDGE JUST ENOUGH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS SCATTERED. BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE GETS SQUEEZED FARTHER TO THE EAST OPENING
UP THE AREA FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THAT FEATURE MIGHT BE
OVERDONE AS ITS JUST HARD TO MOVE THOSE BULLISH RIDGES THIS TIME
OF YEAR...SO WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE IN THE FAR EXTENDED.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  75  50  77  54 /  50  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    65  77  53  78  56 /  50  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  65  77  55  79  58 /  50  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  66  80  56  79  59 /  50  10   0   0   0
CALERA      67  78  56  79  58 /  50  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      67  82  57  80  60 /  30  20  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  69  85  59  82  61 /  50  20  10   0   0
TROY        69  87  60  83  61 /  50  20  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 210058
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
758 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING WEATHER AND 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR WAS PRETTY ACTIVE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF
STRONG STORMS PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE HAS BEEN
A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AND
EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU 06Z BUT DON`T EXPECT MUCH OF
ANYTHING OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS MOVING INTO THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPS
ARE STILL ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE LOW 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FEW STORMS ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD MOVE
NEAR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE DECREASING. IN THE SOUTH...SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THRU 02Z. CIGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AREA WIDE
BUT SOME POST-FRONTAL STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THRU
SUNRISE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT IN
THE SOUTH THEN THERE COULD BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. WINDS
WILL SWITCH FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING
BEHINDTHE FRONT.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TODAY KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS
ALL MORNING BUT HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE COVERAGE. IT ALSO HAS A
LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING.
THIS MIGHT ALSO BE OVERDONE BUT CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TO SEE
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE FRONT IS APPROACHING. WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP. LATER ON TONIGHT AND TOMORROW A MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
DRYING US OUT AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD
AIRMASS CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S NORTH AND 80S
SOUTH AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO 60.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS AS WELL AS
LOWS IN THE 60S FOR EVERYONE. THE REGION LOOKS TO HAVE AN UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST. CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE COVERED BY THE RIDGE JUST ENOUGH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS SCATTERED. BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE GETS SQUEEZED FARTHER TO THE EAST OPENING
UP THE AREA FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THAT FEATURE MIGHT BE
OVERDONE AS ITS JUST HARD TO MOVE THOSE BULLISH RIDGES THIS TIME
OF YEAR...SO WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE IN THE FAR EXTENDED.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  75  50  77  54 /  50  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    65  77  53  78  56 /  50  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  65  77  55  79  58 /  50  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  66  80  56  79  59 /  50  10   0   0   0
CALERA      67  78  56  79  58 /  50  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      67  82  57  80  60 /  30  20  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  69  85  59  82  61 /  50  20  10   0   0
TROY        69  87  60  83  61 /  50  20  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 201928
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
228 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TODAY KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS
ALL MORNING BUT HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE COVERAGE. IT ALSO HAS A
LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING.
THIS MIGHT ALSO BE OVERDONE BUT CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TO SEE
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE FRONT IS APPROACHING. WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP. LATER ON TONIGHT AND TOMORROW A MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
DRYING US OUT AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD
AIRMASS CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S NORTH AND 80S
SOUTH AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO 60.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS AS WELL AS
LOWS IN THE 60S FOR EVERYONE. THE REGION LOOKS TO HAVE AN UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST. CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE COVERED BY THE RIDGE JUST ENOUGH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS SCATTERED. BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE GETS SQUEEZED FARTHER TO THE EAST OPENING
UP THE AREA FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THAT FEATURE MIGHT BE
OVERDONE AS ITS JUST HARD TO MOVE THOSE BULLISH RIDGES THIS TIME
OF YEAR...SO WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE IN THE FAR EXTENDED.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHRA AND TSRA CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MS AND SHOULD BEGIN
SPREADING INTO WESTERN AL BY 20Z. WILL CARRY VCTS IN TAFS THIS AFTN
EXCEPT FOR TCL WHERE TEMPO GROUP WILL BE SHOWN SINCE THIS APPEARS TO
BE MOST LIKELY SITE TO EXPERIENCE A TSRA AT THIS TIME. CAN EXPECT
UPDATES AS AREAS OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT BECOME MORE CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON. BELIEVE MOST OF TSRA ACTIVITY WILL PLAY OUT EARLY THIS
EVE BUT CAN`T RULE OUT POSSIBILITY SOME COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
FRONT MOVES INTO AREA...JUST AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM
IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WHEN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z BUT EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.

41


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  75  50  77  54 /  40  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    65  77  53  78  56 /  40  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  65  77  55  79  58 /  40  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  66  80  56  79  59 /  30  10   0   0   0
CALERA      67  78  56  79  58 /  40  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      67  82  57  80  60 /  20  20  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  69  85  59  82  61 /  30  20  10   0   0
TROY        69  87  60  83  61 /  20  20  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 201928
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
228 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TODAY KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS
ALL MORNING BUT HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE COVERAGE. IT ALSO HAS A
LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING.
THIS MIGHT ALSO BE OVERDONE BUT CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TO SEE
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE FRONT IS APPROACHING. WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP. LATER ON TONIGHT AND TOMORROW A MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
DRYING US OUT AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD
AIRMASS CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S NORTH AND 80S
SOUTH AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO 60.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS AS WELL AS
LOWS IN THE 60S FOR EVERYONE. THE REGION LOOKS TO HAVE AN UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST. CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE COVERED BY THE RIDGE JUST ENOUGH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS SCATTERED. BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE GETS SQUEEZED FARTHER TO THE EAST OPENING
UP THE AREA FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THAT FEATURE MIGHT BE
OVERDONE AS ITS JUST HARD TO MOVE THOSE BULLISH RIDGES THIS TIME
OF YEAR...SO WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE IN THE FAR EXTENDED.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHRA AND TSRA CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MS AND SHOULD BEGIN
SPREADING INTO WESTERN AL BY 20Z. WILL CARRY VCTS IN TAFS THIS AFTN
EXCEPT FOR TCL WHERE TEMPO GROUP WILL BE SHOWN SINCE THIS APPEARS TO
BE MOST LIKELY SITE TO EXPERIENCE A TSRA AT THIS TIME. CAN EXPECT
UPDATES AS AREAS OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT BECOME MORE CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON. BELIEVE MOST OF TSRA ACTIVITY WILL PLAY OUT EARLY THIS
EVE BUT CAN`T RULE OUT POSSIBILITY SOME COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
FRONT MOVES INTO AREA...JUST AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM
IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WHEN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z BUT EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.

41


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  75  50  77  54 /  40  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    65  77  53  78  56 /  40  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  65  77  55  79  58 /  40  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  66  80  56  79  59 /  30  10   0   0   0
CALERA      67  78  56  79  58 /  40  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      67  82  57  80  60 /  20  20  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  69  85  59  82  61 /  30  20  10   0   0
TROY        69  87  60  83  61 /  20  20  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 201928
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
228 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TODAY KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS
ALL MORNING BUT HAS BEEN OVERDOING THE COVERAGE. IT ALSO HAS A
LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING.
THIS MIGHT ALSO BE OVERDONE BUT CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TO SEE
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE FRONT IS APPROACHING. WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP. LATER ON TONIGHT AND TOMORROW A MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
DRYING US OUT AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD
AIRMASS CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S NORTH AND 80S
SOUTH AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO 60.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS AS WELL AS
LOWS IN THE 60S FOR EVERYONE. THE REGION LOOKS TO HAVE AN UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST. CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE COVERED BY THE RIDGE JUST ENOUGH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS SCATTERED. BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE GETS SQUEEZED FARTHER TO THE EAST OPENING
UP THE AREA FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THAT FEATURE MIGHT BE
OVERDONE AS ITS JUST HARD TO MOVE THOSE BULLISH RIDGES THIS TIME
OF YEAR...SO WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE IN THE FAR EXTENDED.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHRA AND TSRA CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MS AND SHOULD BEGIN
SPREADING INTO WESTERN AL BY 20Z. WILL CARRY VCTS IN TAFS THIS AFTN
EXCEPT FOR TCL WHERE TEMPO GROUP WILL BE SHOWN SINCE THIS APPEARS TO
BE MOST LIKELY SITE TO EXPERIENCE A TSRA AT THIS TIME. CAN EXPECT
UPDATES AS AREAS OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT BECOME MORE CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON. BELIEVE MOST OF TSRA ACTIVITY WILL PLAY OUT EARLY THIS
EVE BUT CAN`T RULE OUT POSSIBILITY SOME COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
FRONT MOVES INTO AREA...JUST AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM
IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WHEN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z BUT EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.

41


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  75  50  77  54 /  40  10   0   0   0
ANNISTON    65  77  53  78  56 /  40  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  65  77  55  79  58 /  40  10   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  66  80  56  79  59 /  30  10   0   0   0
CALERA      67  78  56  79  58 /  40  10   0   0   0
AUBURN      67  82  57  80  60 /  20  20  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  69  85  59  82  61 /  30  20  10   0   0
TROY        69  87  60  83  61 /  20  20  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 201729 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1228 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK SO NOT ANTICIPATING MANY CHANGES.
WATCHING THE CONVECTION OVER MISSISSIPPI AS THE HRRR DEVELOPS
SCATTERED TO LIKELY TYPE COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST
INSTABILITY BUT WEAK SHEAR. TIMING IS RIGHT...MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SO SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS VERY REASONABLE. MAY END
UP INCREASING THE POPS TO HAVE SCATTERED EVERYWHERE. HIGHS IN THE
80S AND VERY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 65 TO 70
MOST LOCATIONS.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHRA AND TSRA CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MS AND SHOULD BEGIN
SPREADING INTO WESTERN AL BY 20Z. WILL CARRY VCTS IN TAFS THIS AFTN
EXCEPT FOR TCL WHERE TEMPO GROUP WILL BE SHOWN SINCE THIS APPEARS TO
BE MOST LIKELY SITE TO EXPERIENCE A TSRA AT THIS TIME. CAN EXPECT
UPDATES AS AREAS OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT BECOME MORE CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON. BELIEVE MOST OF TSRA ACTIVITY WILL PLAY OUT EARLY THIS
EVE BUT CAN`T RULE OUT POSSIBILITY SOME COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
FRONT MOVES INTO AREA...JUST AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM
IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WHEN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z BUT EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.

41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 645 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

AN INTERESTING FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE DAY TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY SPLITTING THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN NORTH
ALABAMA...WHILE MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING BACK TO
OUR WEST...LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WHERE
THESE STORMS TRACK WILL DICTATE HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ALL INDICATIONS CURRENTLY ARE THAT THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO ACT AS A SECONDARY LIFTING MECHANISM AT
THE SURFACE. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY THE TIME THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHES OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME BUT WE MAY NEED TO GO LIKELY OR
HIGHER BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS LATER THIS
MORNING. WE`LL DEFINITELY SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL FINALLY BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS A COLD POOL BOUNDARY AND IS
ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

LOOKING AT THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE STORMS TODAY...WE COULD CERTAINLY BE LOOKING AT
STRONG STORM FORMATION. CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND ENOUGH
0-6KM BULK SPEED SHEAR (25 TO 30 KTS) TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS
WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS WHICH INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS BEING
TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY HAZARDS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AND
THE OVERALL COVERAGE. DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH THE BEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY...FILTERING DRIER AIR TO THE GULF COAST. LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THAT DRY AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY BE ERODED
OVER TIME AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
GO UP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OFF THE FLORIDA
COASTLINE AND BUILDS WESTWARD. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

56/GDG

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 201729 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1228 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK SO NOT ANTICIPATING MANY CHANGES.
WATCHING THE CONVECTION OVER MISSISSIPPI AS THE HRRR DEVELOPS
SCATTERED TO LIKELY TYPE COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST
INSTABILITY BUT WEAK SHEAR. TIMING IS RIGHT...MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SO SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS VERY REASONABLE. MAY END
UP INCREASING THE POPS TO HAVE SCATTERED EVERYWHERE. HIGHS IN THE
80S AND VERY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 65 TO 70
MOST LOCATIONS.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHRA AND TSRA CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MS AND SHOULD BEGIN
SPREADING INTO WESTERN AL BY 20Z. WILL CARRY VCTS IN TAFS THIS AFTN
EXCEPT FOR TCL WHERE TEMPO GROUP WILL BE SHOWN SINCE THIS APPEARS TO
BE MOST LIKELY SITE TO EXPERIENCE A TSRA AT THIS TIME. CAN EXPECT
UPDATES AS AREAS OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT BECOME MORE CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON. BELIEVE MOST OF TSRA ACTIVITY WILL PLAY OUT EARLY THIS
EVE BUT CAN`T RULE OUT POSSIBILITY SOME COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
FRONT MOVES INTO AREA...JUST AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM
IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WHEN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z BUT EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.

41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 645 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

AN INTERESTING FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE DAY TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY SPLITTING THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN NORTH
ALABAMA...WHILE MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING BACK TO
OUR WEST...LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WHERE
THESE STORMS TRACK WILL DICTATE HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ALL INDICATIONS CURRENTLY ARE THAT THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO ACT AS A SECONDARY LIFTING MECHANISM AT
THE SURFACE. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY THE TIME THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHES OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME BUT WE MAY NEED TO GO LIKELY OR
HIGHER BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS LATER THIS
MORNING. WE`LL DEFINITELY SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL FINALLY BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS A COLD POOL BOUNDARY AND IS
ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

LOOKING AT THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE STORMS TODAY...WE COULD CERTAINLY BE LOOKING AT
STRONG STORM FORMATION. CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND ENOUGH
0-6KM BULK SPEED SHEAR (25 TO 30 KTS) TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS
WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS WHICH INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS BEING
TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY HAZARDS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AND
THE OVERALL COVERAGE. DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH THE BEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY...FILTERING DRIER AIR TO THE GULF COAST. LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THAT DRY AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY BE ERODED
OVER TIME AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
GO UP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OFF THE FLORIDA
COASTLINE AND BUILDS WESTWARD. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

56/GDG

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 201729 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1228 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK SO NOT ANTICIPATING MANY CHANGES.
WATCHING THE CONVECTION OVER MISSISSIPPI AS THE HRRR DEVELOPS
SCATTERED TO LIKELY TYPE COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST
INSTABILITY BUT WEAK SHEAR. TIMING IS RIGHT...MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SO SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS VERY REASONABLE. MAY END
UP INCREASING THE POPS TO HAVE SCATTERED EVERYWHERE. HIGHS IN THE
80S AND VERY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 65 TO 70
MOST LOCATIONS.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHRA AND TSRA CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MS AND SHOULD BEGIN
SPREADING INTO WESTERN AL BY 20Z. WILL CARRY VCTS IN TAFS THIS AFTN
EXCEPT FOR TCL WHERE TEMPO GROUP WILL BE SHOWN SINCE THIS APPEARS TO
BE MOST LIKELY SITE TO EXPERIENCE A TSRA AT THIS TIME. CAN EXPECT
UPDATES AS AREAS OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT BECOME MORE CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON. BELIEVE MOST OF TSRA ACTIVITY WILL PLAY OUT EARLY THIS
EVE BUT CAN`T RULE OUT POSSIBILITY SOME COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
FRONT MOVES INTO AREA...JUST AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM
IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WHEN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z BUT EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.

41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 645 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

AN INTERESTING FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE DAY TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY SPLITTING THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN NORTH
ALABAMA...WHILE MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING BACK TO
OUR WEST...LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WHERE
THESE STORMS TRACK WILL DICTATE HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ALL INDICATIONS CURRENTLY ARE THAT THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO ACT AS A SECONDARY LIFTING MECHANISM AT
THE SURFACE. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY THE TIME THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHES OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME BUT WE MAY NEED TO GO LIKELY OR
HIGHER BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS LATER THIS
MORNING. WE`LL DEFINITELY SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL FINALLY BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS A COLD POOL BOUNDARY AND IS
ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

LOOKING AT THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE STORMS TODAY...WE COULD CERTAINLY BE LOOKING AT
STRONG STORM FORMATION. CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND ENOUGH
0-6KM BULK SPEED SHEAR (25 TO 30 KTS) TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS
WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS WHICH INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS BEING
TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY HAZARDS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AND
THE OVERALL COVERAGE. DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH THE BEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY...FILTERING DRIER AIR TO THE GULF COAST. LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THAT DRY AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY BE ERODED
OVER TIME AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
GO UP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OFF THE FLORIDA
COASTLINE AND BUILDS WESTWARD. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

56/GDG

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 201729 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1228 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK SO NOT ANTICIPATING MANY CHANGES.
WATCHING THE CONVECTION OVER MISSISSIPPI AS THE HRRR DEVELOPS
SCATTERED TO LIKELY TYPE COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST
INSTABILITY BUT WEAK SHEAR. TIMING IS RIGHT...MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SO SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS VERY REASONABLE. MAY END
UP INCREASING THE POPS TO HAVE SCATTERED EVERYWHERE. HIGHS IN THE
80S AND VERY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 65 TO 70
MOST LOCATIONS.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHRA AND TSRA CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MS AND SHOULD BEGIN
SPREADING INTO WESTERN AL BY 20Z. WILL CARRY VCTS IN TAFS THIS AFTN
EXCEPT FOR TCL WHERE TEMPO GROUP WILL BE SHOWN SINCE THIS APPEARS TO
BE MOST LIKELY SITE TO EXPERIENCE A TSRA AT THIS TIME. CAN EXPECT
UPDATES AS AREAS OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT BECOME MORE CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON. BELIEVE MOST OF TSRA ACTIVITY WILL PLAY OUT EARLY THIS
EVE BUT CAN`T RULE OUT POSSIBILITY SOME COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
FRONT MOVES INTO AREA...JUST AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM
IN THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WHEN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z BUT EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.

41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 645 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

AN INTERESTING FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE DAY TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY SPLITTING THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN NORTH
ALABAMA...WHILE MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING BACK TO
OUR WEST...LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WHERE
THESE STORMS TRACK WILL DICTATE HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ALL INDICATIONS CURRENTLY ARE THAT THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO ACT AS A SECONDARY LIFTING MECHANISM AT
THE SURFACE. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY THE TIME THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHES OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME BUT WE MAY NEED TO GO LIKELY OR
HIGHER BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS LATER THIS
MORNING. WE`LL DEFINITELY SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL FINALLY BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS A COLD POOL BOUNDARY AND IS
ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

LOOKING AT THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE STORMS TODAY...WE COULD CERTAINLY BE LOOKING AT
STRONG STORM FORMATION. CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND ENOUGH
0-6KM BULK SPEED SHEAR (25 TO 30 KTS) TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS
WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS WHICH INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS BEING
TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY HAZARDS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AND
THE OVERALL COVERAGE. DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH THE BEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY...FILTERING DRIER AIR TO THE GULF COAST. LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THAT DRY AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY BE ERODED
OVER TIME AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
GO UP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OFF THE FLORIDA
COASTLINE AND BUILDS WESTWARD. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

56/GDG

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 201542
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1042 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK SO NOT ANTICIPATING MANY CHANGES.
WATCHING THE CONVECTION OVER MISSISSIPPI AS THE HRRR DEVELOPS
SCATTERED TO LIKELY TYPE COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST
INSTABILITY BUT WEAK SHEAR. TIMING IS RIGHT...MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SO SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS VERY REASONABLE. MAY END
UP INCREASING THE POPS TO HAVE SCATTERED EVERYWHERE. HIGHS IN THE
80S AND VERY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 65 TO 70
MOST LOCATIONS.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXPECT THE POCKETS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA TO DISSIPATE BY 14 TO
15Z. A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO ROLL IN
FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. AFTER 3Z MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MORE
DEFINITIVE TIMES WILL BE PART OF THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 645 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

AN INTERESTING FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE DAY TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY SPLITTING THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN NORTH
ALABAMA...WHILE MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING BACK TO
OUR WEST...LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WHERE
THESE STORMS TRACK WILL DICTATE HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ALL INDICATIONS CURRENTLY ARE THAT THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO ACT AS A SECONDARY LIFTING MECHANISM AT
THE SURFACE. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY THE TIME THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHES OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME BUT WE MAY NEED TO GO LIKELY OR
HIGHER BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS LATER THIS
MORNING. WE`LL DEFINITELY SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL FINALLY BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS A COLD POOL BOUNDARY AND IS
ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

LOOKING AT THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE STORMS TODAY...WE COULD CERTAINLY BE LOOKING AT
STRONG STORM FORMATION. CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND ENOUGH
0-6KM BULK SPEED SHEAR (25 TO 30 KTS) TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS
WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS WHICH INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS BEING
TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY HAZARDS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AND
THE OVERALL COVERAGE. DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH THE BEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY...FILTERING DRIER AIR TO THE GULF COAST. LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THAT DRY AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY BE ERODED
OVER TIME AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
GO UP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OFF THE FLORIDA
COASTLINE AND BUILDS WESTWARD. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

56/GDG

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 201542
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1042 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK SO NOT ANTICIPATING MANY CHANGES.
WATCHING THE CONVECTION OVER MISSISSIPPI AS THE HRRR DEVELOPS
SCATTERED TO LIKELY TYPE COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST
INSTABILITY BUT WEAK SHEAR. TIMING IS RIGHT...MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SO SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS VERY REASONABLE. MAY END
UP INCREASING THE POPS TO HAVE SCATTERED EVERYWHERE. HIGHS IN THE
80S AND VERY MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 65 TO 70
MOST LOCATIONS.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXPECT THE POCKETS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA TO DISSIPATE BY 14 TO
15Z. A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO ROLL IN
FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. AFTER 3Z MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MORE
DEFINITIVE TIMES WILL BE PART OF THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 645 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

AN INTERESTING FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE DAY TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY SPLITTING THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN NORTH
ALABAMA...WHILE MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING BACK TO
OUR WEST...LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WHERE
THESE STORMS TRACK WILL DICTATE HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ALL INDICATIONS CURRENTLY ARE THAT THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO ACT AS A SECONDARY LIFTING MECHANISM AT
THE SURFACE. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY THE TIME THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHES OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME BUT WE MAY NEED TO GO LIKELY OR
HIGHER BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS LATER THIS
MORNING. WE`LL DEFINITELY SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL FINALLY BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS A COLD POOL BOUNDARY AND IS
ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

LOOKING AT THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE STORMS TODAY...WE COULD CERTAINLY BE LOOKING AT
STRONG STORM FORMATION. CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND ENOUGH
0-6KM BULK SPEED SHEAR (25 TO 30 KTS) TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS
WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS WHICH INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS BEING
TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY HAZARDS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AND
THE OVERALL COVERAGE. DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH THE BEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY...FILTERING DRIER AIR TO THE GULF COAST. LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THAT DRY AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY BE ERODED
OVER TIME AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
GO UP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OFF THE FLORIDA
COASTLINE AND BUILDS WESTWARD. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

56/GDG

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 201145
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
645 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN INTERESTING FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE DAY TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY SPLITTING THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN NORTH
ALABAMA...WHILE MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING BACK TO
OUR WEST...LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WHERE
THESE STORMS TRACK WILL DICTATE HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ALL INDICATIONS CURRENTLY ARE THAT THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO ACT AS A SECONDARY LIFTING MECHANISM AT
THE SURFACE. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY THE TIME THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHES OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME BUT WE MAY NEED TO GO LIKELY OR
HIGHER BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS LATER THIS
MORNING. WE`LL DEFINITELY SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL FINALLY BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS A COLD POOL BOUNDARY AND IS
ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

LOOKING AT THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE STORMS TODAY...WE COULD CERTAINLY BE LOOKING AT
STRONG STORM FORMATION. CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND ENOUGH
0-6KM BULK SPEED SHEAR (25 TO 30 KTS) TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS
WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS WHICH INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS BEING
TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY HAZARDS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AND
THE OVERALL COVERAGE. DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH THE BEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY...FILTERING DRIER AIR TO THE GULF COAST. LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THAT DRY AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY BE ERODED
OVER TIME AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
GO UP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OFF THE FLORIDA
COASTLINE AND BUILDS WESTWARD. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXPECT THE POCKETS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA TO DISSIPATE BY 14 TO
15Z. A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO ROLL IN
FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. AFTER 3Z MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MORE
DEFINITIVE TIMES WILL BE PART OF THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  65  78  54  79 /  40  40  20   0   0
ANNISTON    86  66  80  56  80 /  30  30  20   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  86  67  80  57  80 /  40  40  20   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  88  68  81  58  81 /  40  30  20   0   0
CALERA      86  68  81  57  80 /  30  30  20   0   0
AUBURN      87  67  85  61  82 /  20  20  30  10   0
MONTGOMERY  90  70  86  62  85 /  20  30  30  10   0
TROY        90  69  87  62  85 /  20  20  30  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BULLOCK-CHAMBERS-CHILTON-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-LEE-LOWNDES-
MACON-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-RUSSELL-TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 201145
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
645 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN INTERESTING FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE DAY TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY SPLITTING THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN NORTH
ALABAMA...WHILE MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING BACK TO
OUR WEST...LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WHERE
THESE STORMS TRACK WILL DICTATE HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ALL INDICATIONS CURRENTLY ARE THAT THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO ACT AS A SECONDARY LIFTING MECHANISM AT
THE SURFACE. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY THE TIME THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHES OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME BUT WE MAY NEED TO GO LIKELY OR
HIGHER BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS LATER THIS
MORNING. WE`LL DEFINITELY SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL FINALLY BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS A COLD POOL BOUNDARY AND IS
ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

LOOKING AT THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE STORMS TODAY...WE COULD CERTAINLY BE LOOKING AT
STRONG STORM FORMATION. CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND ENOUGH
0-6KM BULK SPEED SHEAR (25 TO 30 KTS) TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS
WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS WHICH INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS BEING
TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY HAZARDS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AND
THE OVERALL COVERAGE. DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH THE BEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY...FILTERING DRIER AIR TO THE GULF COAST. LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THAT DRY AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY BE ERODED
OVER TIME AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
GO UP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OFF THE FLORIDA
COASTLINE AND BUILDS WESTWARD. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXPECT THE POCKETS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA TO DISSIPATE BY 14 TO
15Z. A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO ROLL IN
FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. AFTER 3Z MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MORE
DEFINITIVE TIMES WILL BE PART OF THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  65  78  54  79 /  40  40  20   0   0
ANNISTON    86  66  80  56  80 /  30  30  20   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  86  67  80  57  80 /  40  40  20   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  88  68  81  58  81 /  40  30  20   0   0
CALERA      86  68  81  57  80 /  30  30  20   0   0
AUBURN      87  67  85  61  82 /  20  20  30  10   0
MONTGOMERY  90  70  86  62  85 /  20  30  30  10   0
TROY        90  69  87  62  85 /  20  20  30  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BULLOCK-CHAMBERS-CHILTON-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-LEE-LOWNDES-
MACON-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-RUSSELL-TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 201145
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
645 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN INTERESTING FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE DAY TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY SPLITTING THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN NORTH
ALABAMA...WHILE MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING BACK TO
OUR WEST...LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WHERE
THESE STORMS TRACK WILL DICTATE HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ALL INDICATIONS CURRENTLY ARE THAT THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO ACT AS A SECONDARY LIFTING MECHANISM AT
THE SURFACE. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY THE TIME THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHES OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME BUT WE MAY NEED TO GO LIKELY OR
HIGHER BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS LATER THIS
MORNING. WE`LL DEFINITELY SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL FINALLY BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS A COLD POOL BOUNDARY AND IS
ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

LOOKING AT THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE STORMS TODAY...WE COULD CERTAINLY BE LOOKING AT
STRONG STORM FORMATION. CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND ENOUGH
0-6KM BULK SPEED SHEAR (25 TO 30 KTS) TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS
WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS WHICH INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS BEING
TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY HAZARDS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AND
THE OVERALL COVERAGE. DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH THE BEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY...FILTERING DRIER AIR TO THE GULF COAST. LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THAT DRY AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY BE ERODED
OVER TIME AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
GO UP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OFF THE FLORIDA
COASTLINE AND BUILDS WESTWARD. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXPECT THE POCKETS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA TO DISSIPATE BY 14 TO
15Z. A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO ROLL IN
FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. AFTER 3Z MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MORE
DEFINITIVE TIMES WILL BE PART OF THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  65  78  54  79 /  40  40  20   0   0
ANNISTON    86  66  80  56  80 /  30  30  20   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  86  67  80  57  80 /  40  40  20   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  88  68  81  58  81 /  40  30  20   0   0
CALERA      86  68  81  57  80 /  30  30  20   0   0
AUBURN      87  67  85  61  82 /  20  20  30  10   0
MONTGOMERY  90  70  86  62  85 /  20  30  30  10   0
TROY        90  69  87  62  85 /  20  20  30  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BULLOCK-CHAMBERS-CHILTON-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-LEE-LOWNDES-
MACON-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-RUSSELL-TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 201145
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
645 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN INTERESTING FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE DAY TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY SPLITTING THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN NORTH
ALABAMA...WHILE MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING BACK TO
OUR WEST...LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WHERE
THESE STORMS TRACK WILL DICTATE HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ALL INDICATIONS CURRENTLY ARE THAT THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO ACT AS A SECONDARY LIFTING MECHANISM AT
THE SURFACE. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY THE TIME THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHES OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME BUT WE MAY NEED TO GO LIKELY OR
HIGHER BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS LATER THIS
MORNING. WE`LL DEFINITELY SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL FINALLY BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS A COLD POOL BOUNDARY AND IS
ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

LOOKING AT THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE STORMS TODAY...WE COULD CERTAINLY BE LOOKING AT
STRONG STORM FORMATION. CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND ENOUGH
0-6KM BULK SPEED SHEAR (25 TO 30 KTS) TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS
WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS WHICH INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS BEING
TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY HAZARDS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AND
THE OVERALL COVERAGE. DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH THE BEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY...FILTERING DRIER AIR TO THE GULF COAST. LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THAT DRY AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY BE ERODED
OVER TIME AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
GO UP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OFF THE FLORIDA
COASTLINE AND BUILDS WESTWARD. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXPECT THE POCKETS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA TO DISSIPATE BY 14 TO
15Z. A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO ROLL IN
FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. AFTER 3Z MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MORE
DEFINITIVE TIMES WILL BE PART OF THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  65  78  54  79 /  40  40  20   0   0
ANNISTON    86  66  80  56  80 /  30  30  20   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  86  67  80  57  80 /  40  40  20   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  88  68  81  58  81 /  40  30  20   0   0
CALERA      86  68  81  57  80 /  30  30  20   0   0
AUBURN      87  67  85  61  82 /  20  20  30  10   0
MONTGOMERY  90  70  86  62  85 /  20  30  30  10   0
TROY        90  69  87  62  85 /  20  20  30  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR AUTAUGA-
BARBOUR-BULLOCK-CHAMBERS-CHILTON-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-LEE-LOWNDES-
MACON-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-RUSSELL-TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 200955
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
455 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN INTERESTING FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE DAY TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY SPLITTING THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN NORTH
ALABAMA...WHILE MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING BACK TO
OUR WEST...LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WHERE
THESE STORMS TRACK WILL DICTATE HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ALL INDICATIONS CURRENTLY ARE THAT THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO ACT AS A SECONDARY LIFTING MECHANISM AT
THE SURFACE. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY THE TIME THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHES OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME BUT WE MAY NEED TO GO LIKELY OR
HIGHER BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS LATER THIS
MORNING. WE`LL DEFINITELY SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL FINALLY BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS A COLD POOL BOUNDARY AND IS
ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

LOOKING AT THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE STORMS TODAY...WE COULD CERTAINLY BE LOOKING AT
STRONG STORM FORMATION. CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND ENOUGH
0-6KM BULK SPEED SHEAR (25 TO 30 KTS) TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS
WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS WHICH INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS BEING
TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY HAZARDS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AND
THE OVERALL COVERAGE. DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH THE BEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY...FILTERING DRIER AIR TO THE GULF COAST. LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THAT DRY AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY BE ERODED
OVER TIME AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
GO UP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OFF THE FLORIDA
COASTLINE AND BUILDS WESTWARD. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS HAVE CALMED...SO ALREADY SEEING SIGNS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.  EXPECT THAT THESE
POCKETS OF FOG WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY DRIER
START TO TOMORROW...BUT A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  65  78  54  79 /  40  40  20   0   0
ANNISTON    86  66  80  56  80 /  30  30  20   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  86  67  80  57  80 /  40  40  20   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  88  68  81  58  81 /  40  30  20   0   0
CALERA      86  68  81  57  80 /  30  30  20   0   0
AUBURN      87  67  85  61  82 /  20  20  30  10   0
MONTGOMERY  90  70  86  62  85 /  20  30  30  10   0
TROY        90  69  87  62  85 /  20  20  30  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM
CDT THIS MORNING FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BULLOCK-CHAMBERS-CHILTON-COOSA-
DALLAS-ELMORE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-RUSSELL-
TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 200955
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
455 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN INTERESTING FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE DAY TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY SPLITTING THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN NORTH
ALABAMA...WHILE MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING BACK TO
OUR WEST...LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WHERE
THESE STORMS TRACK WILL DICTATE HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ALL INDICATIONS CURRENTLY ARE THAT THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO ACT AS A SECONDARY LIFTING MECHANISM AT
THE SURFACE. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY THE TIME THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHES OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME BUT WE MAY NEED TO GO LIKELY OR
HIGHER BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS LATER THIS
MORNING. WE`LL DEFINITELY SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL FINALLY BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS A COLD POOL BOUNDARY AND IS
ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

LOOKING AT THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE STORMS TODAY...WE COULD CERTAINLY BE LOOKING AT
STRONG STORM FORMATION. CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND ENOUGH
0-6KM BULK SPEED SHEAR (25 TO 30 KTS) TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS
WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS WHICH INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS BEING
TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY HAZARDS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AND
THE OVERALL COVERAGE. DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH THE BEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY...FILTERING DRIER AIR TO THE GULF COAST. LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THAT DRY AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY BE ERODED
OVER TIME AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
GO UP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OFF THE FLORIDA
COASTLINE AND BUILDS WESTWARD. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS HAVE CALMED...SO ALREADY SEEING SIGNS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.  EXPECT THAT THESE
POCKETS OF FOG WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY DRIER
START TO TOMORROW...BUT A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  65  78  54  79 /  40  40  20   0   0
ANNISTON    86  66  80  56  80 /  30  30  20   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  86  67  80  57  80 /  40  40  20   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  88  68  81  58  81 /  40  30  20   0   0
CALERA      86  68  81  57  80 /  30  30  20   0   0
AUBURN      87  67  85  61  82 /  20  20  30  10   0
MONTGOMERY  90  70  86  62  85 /  20  30  30  10   0
TROY        90  69  87  62  85 /  20  20  30  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM
CDT THIS MORNING FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BULLOCK-CHAMBERS-CHILTON-COOSA-
DALLAS-ELMORE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-RUSSELL-
TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 200925
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
425 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN INTERESTING FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE DAY TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY SPLITTING THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN NORTH
ALABAMA...WHILE MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING BACK TO
OUR WEST...LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WHERE
THESE STORMS TRACK WILL DICTATE HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ALL INDICATIONS CURRENTLY ARE THAT THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO ACT AS A SECONDARY LIFTING MECHANISM AT
THE SURFACE. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY THE TIME THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHES OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME BUT WE MAY NEED TO GO LIKELY OR
HIGHER BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS LATER THIS
MORNING. WE`LL DEFINITELY SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL FINALLY BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS A COLD POOL BOUNDARY AND IS
ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

LOOKING AT THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE STORMS TODAY...WE COULD CERTAINLY BE LOOKING AT
STRONG STORM FORMATION. CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND ENOUGH
0-6KM BULK SPEED SHEAR (25 TO 30 KTS) TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS
WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS WHICH INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS BEING
TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY HAZARDS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AND
THE OVERALL COVERAGE. DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH THE BEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY...FILTERING DRIER AIR TO THE GULF COAST. LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THAT DRY AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY BE ERODED
OVER TIME AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
GO UP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OFF THE FLORIDA
COASTLINE AND BUILDS WESTWARD. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS HAVE CALMED...SO ALREADY SEEING SIGNS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.  EXPECT THAT THESE
POCKETS OF FOG WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY DRIER
START TO TOMORROW...BUT A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  65  78  54  79 /  40  40  20   0   0
ANNISTON    86  66  80  56  80 /  30  30  20   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  86  67  80  57  80 /  40  40  20   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  88  68  81  58  81 /  40  30  20   0   0
CALERA      86  68  81  57  80 /  30  30  20   0   0
AUBURN      87  67  85  61  82 /  20  20  30  10   0
MONTGOMERY  90  70  86  62  85 /  20  30  30  10   0
TROY        90  69  87  62  85 /  20  20  30  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 200925
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
425 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN INTERESTING FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE DAY TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY SPLITTING THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN NORTH
ALABAMA...WHILE MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING BACK TO
OUR WEST...LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WHERE
THESE STORMS TRACK WILL DICTATE HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ALL INDICATIONS CURRENTLY ARE THAT THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO ACT AS A SECONDARY LIFTING MECHANISM AT
THE SURFACE. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY THE TIME THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHES OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME BUT WE MAY NEED TO GO LIKELY OR
HIGHER BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS LATER THIS
MORNING. WE`LL DEFINITELY SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL FINALLY BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS A COLD POOL BOUNDARY AND IS
ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

LOOKING AT THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE STORMS TODAY...WE COULD CERTAINLY BE LOOKING AT
STRONG STORM FORMATION. CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND ENOUGH
0-6KM BULK SPEED SHEAR (25 TO 30 KTS) TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS
WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS WHICH INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS BEING
TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY HAZARDS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AND
THE OVERALL COVERAGE. DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH THE BEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY...FILTERING DRIER AIR TO THE GULF COAST. LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THAT DRY AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY BE ERODED
OVER TIME AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
GO UP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OFF THE FLORIDA
COASTLINE AND BUILDS WESTWARD. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS HAVE CALMED...SO ALREADY SEEING SIGNS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.  EXPECT THAT THESE
POCKETS OF FOG WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY DRIER
START TO TOMORROW...BUT A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  65  78  54  79 /  40  40  20   0   0
ANNISTON    86  66  80  56  80 /  30  30  20   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  86  67  80  57  80 /  40  40  20   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  88  68  81  58  81 /  40  30  20   0   0
CALERA      86  68  81  57  80 /  30  30  20   0   0
AUBURN      87  67  85  61  82 /  20  20  30  10   0
MONTGOMERY  90  70  86  62  85 /  20  30  30  10   0
TROY        90  69  87  62  85 /  20  20  30  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 200925
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
425 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN INTERESTING FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE DAY TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY SPLITTING THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN NORTH
ALABAMA...WHILE MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING BACK TO
OUR WEST...LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WHERE
THESE STORMS TRACK WILL DICTATE HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ALL INDICATIONS CURRENTLY ARE THAT THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO ACT AS A SECONDARY LIFTING MECHANISM AT
THE SURFACE. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY THE TIME THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHES OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME BUT WE MAY NEED TO GO LIKELY OR
HIGHER BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS LATER THIS
MORNING. WE`LL DEFINITELY SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL FINALLY BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS A COLD POOL BOUNDARY AND IS
ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

LOOKING AT THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE STORMS TODAY...WE COULD CERTAINLY BE LOOKING AT
STRONG STORM FORMATION. CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND ENOUGH
0-6KM BULK SPEED SHEAR (25 TO 30 KTS) TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS
WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS WHICH INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS BEING
TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY HAZARDS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AND
THE OVERALL COVERAGE. DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH THE BEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY...FILTERING DRIER AIR TO THE GULF COAST. LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THAT DRY AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY BE ERODED
OVER TIME AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
GO UP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OFF THE FLORIDA
COASTLINE AND BUILDS WESTWARD. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS HAVE CALMED...SO ALREADY SEEING SIGNS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.  EXPECT THAT THESE
POCKETS OF FOG WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY DRIER
START TO TOMORROW...BUT A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  65  78  54  79 /  40  40  20   0   0
ANNISTON    86  66  80  56  80 /  30  30  20   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  86  67  80  57  80 /  40  40  20   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  88  68  81  58  81 /  40  30  20   0   0
CALERA      86  68  81  57  80 /  30  30  20   0   0
AUBURN      87  67  85  61  82 /  20  20  30  10   0
MONTGOMERY  90  70  86  62  85 /  20  30  30  10   0
TROY        90  69  87  62  85 /  20  20  30  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 200925
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
425 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN INTERESTING FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE DAY TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY SPLITTING THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN NORTH
ALABAMA...WHILE MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING BACK TO
OUR WEST...LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WHERE
THESE STORMS TRACK WILL DICTATE HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ALL INDICATIONS CURRENTLY ARE THAT THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO ACT AS A SECONDARY LIFTING MECHANISM AT
THE SURFACE. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY THE TIME THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHES OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME BUT WE MAY NEED TO GO LIKELY OR
HIGHER BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS LATER THIS
MORNING. WE`LL DEFINITELY SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL FINALLY BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS A COLD POOL BOUNDARY AND IS
ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

LOOKING AT THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE STORMS TODAY...WE COULD CERTAINLY BE LOOKING AT
STRONG STORM FORMATION. CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND ENOUGH
0-6KM BULK SPEED SHEAR (25 TO 30 KTS) TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS
WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS WHICH INCREASES THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS BEING
TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY HAZARDS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AND
THE OVERALL COVERAGE. DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH THE BEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY...FILTERING DRIER AIR TO THE GULF COAST. LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS DROP DOWN
INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THAT DRY AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY BE ERODED
OVER TIME AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
GO UP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OFF THE FLORIDA
COASTLINE AND BUILDS WESTWARD. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS HAVE CALMED...SO ALREADY SEEING SIGNS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.  EXPECT THAT THESE
POCKETS OF FOG WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY DRIER
START TO TOMORROW...BUT A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  65  78  54  79 /  40  40  20   0   0
ANNISTON    86  66  80  56  80 /  30  30  20   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  86  67  80  57  80 /  40  40  20   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  88  68  81  58  81 /  40  30  20   0   0
CALERA      86  68  81  57  80 /  30  30  20   0   0
AUBURN      87  67  85  61  82 /  20  20  30  10   0
MONTGOMERY  90  70  86  62  85 /  20  30  30  10   0
TROY        90  69  87  62  85 /  20  20  30  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 200430
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL
ON RADAR ACROSS N AL CLOSER TO THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
KEEPS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A 20 POP
FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY, ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN OCCURRED. WITH
CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER
60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS HAVE CALMED...SO ALREADY SEEING SIGNS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.  EXPECT THAT THESE
POCKETS OF FOG WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY DRIER
START TO TOMORROW...BUT A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 200430
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL
ON RADAR ACROSS N AL CLOSER TO THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
KEEPS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A 20 POP
FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY, ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN OCCURRED. WITH
CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER
60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS HAVE CALMED...SO ALREADY SEEING SIGNS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.  EXPECT THAT THESE
POCKETS OF FOG WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY DRIER
START TO TOMORROW...BUT A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 200430
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL
ON RADAR ACROSS N AL CLOSER TO THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
KEEPS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A 20 POP
FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY, ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN OCCURRED. WITH
CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER
60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS HAVE CALMED...SO ALREADY SEEING SIGNS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.  EXPECT THAT THESE
POCKETS OF FOG WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY DRIER
START TO TOMORROW...BUT A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 200430
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL
ON RADAR ACROSS N AL CLOSER TO THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
KEEPS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A 20 POP
FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY, ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN OCCURRED. WITH
CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER
60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS HAVE CALMED...SO ALREADY SEEING SIGNS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.  EXPECT THAT THESE
POCKETS OF FOG WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY DRIER
START TO TOMORROW...BUT A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER IS
EXPECTED TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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