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000
FXUS64 KBMX 061725
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1124 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND PRODUCE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ALABAMA.
HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR FRIDAYS VALUES WITH 50S AREAWIDE. SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND BRING A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR
INTO ALABAMA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL NOT REALLY BE A
DISTINCT COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MORE LIKE A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS FALL. THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE ON TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER LOW. THE FIRST WAVE WILL ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROFILES
SHOW TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY WILL CAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THERE
COULD BE A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE. THE AIR MASS SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
NO ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP INTO A TROF AND SHIFT
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CEILINGS ROUGHLY AROUND 15K. VERY LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE. VFR CONDITIONS.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 061725
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1124 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND PRODUCE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ALABAMA.
HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR FRIDAYS VALUES WITH 50S AREAWIDE. SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND BRING A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR
INTO ALABAMA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL NOT REALLY BE A
DISTINCT COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MORE LIKE A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS FALL. THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE ON TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER LOW. THE FIRST WAVE WILL ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROFILES
SHOW TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY WILL CAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THERE
COULD BE A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE. THE AIR MASS SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
NO ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP INTO A TROF AND SHIFT
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CEILINGS ROUGHLY AROUND 15K. VERY LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE. VFR CONDITIONS.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 061725
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1124 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND PRODUCE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ALABAMA.
HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR FRIDAYS VALUES WITH 50S AREAWIDE. SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND BRING A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR
INTO ALABAMA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL NOT REALLY BE A
DISTINCT COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MORE LIKE A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS FALL. THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE ON TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER LOW. THE FIRST WAVE WILL ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROFILES
SHOW TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY WILL CAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THERE
COULD BE A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE. THE AIR MASS SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
NO ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP INTO A TROF AND SHIFT
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CEILINGS ROUGHLY AROUND 15K. VERY LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE. VFR CONDITIONS.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 061128
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
528 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND PRODUCE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ALABAMA.
HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR FRIDAYS VALUES WITH 50S AREAWIDE. SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND BRING A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR
INTO ALABAMA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL NOT REALLY BE A
DISTINCT COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MORE LIKE A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS FALL. THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE ON TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER LOW. THE FIRST WAVE WILL ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROFILES
SHOW TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY WILL CAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THERE
COULD BE A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE. THE AIR MASS SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
NO ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP INTO A TROF AND SHIFT
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
CEILINGS ROUGHLY AROUND 15K. VERY LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. VFR CONDITIONS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 061128
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
528 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND PRODUCE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ALABAMA.
HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR FRIDAYS VALUES WITH 50S AREAWIDE. SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND BRING A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR
INTO ALABAMA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL NOT REALLY BE A
DISTINCT COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MORE LIKE A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS FALL. THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE ON TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER LOW. THE FIRST WAVE WILL ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROFILES
SHOW TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY WILL CAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THERE
COULD BE A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE. THE AIR MASS SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
NO ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP INTO A TROF AND SHIFT
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
CEILINGS ROUGHLY AROUND 15K. VERY LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. VFR CONDITIONS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 061128
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
528 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND PRODUCE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ALABAMA.
HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR FRIDAYS VALUES WITH 50S AREAWIDE. SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND BRING A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR
INTO ALABAMA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL NOT REALLY BE A
DISTINCT COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MORE LIKE A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS FALL. THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE ON TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER LOW. THE FIRST WAVE WILL ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROFILES
SHOW TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY WILL CAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THERE
COULD BE A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE. THE AIR MASS SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
NO ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP INTO A TROF AND SHIFT
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
CEILINGS ROUGHLY AROUND 15K. VERY LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. VFR CONDITIONS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 061005
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
405 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND PRODUCE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ALABAMA.
HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR FRIDAYS VALUES WITH 50S AREAWIDE. SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND BRING A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR
INTO ALABAMA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL NOT REALLY BE A
DISTINCT COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MORE LIKE A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS FALL. THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE ON TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER LOW. THE FIRST WAVE WILL ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROFILES
SHOW TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY WILL CAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THERE
COULD BE A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE. THE AIR MASS SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
NO ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP INTO A TROF AND SHIFT
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG JET STREAM WILL SWING
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...THIS WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS TO DEVELOP.
A FEW MODELS INDICATE SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING JUST
AHEAD OF THE FEATURE SATURDAY...BUT THESE CEILINGS WOULD ONLY BE
AROUND 5K FT NEAR ANB/MGM/TOI. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  28  54  34  44 /   0   0   0  20  30
ANNISTON    52  30  55  36  46 /   0   0   0  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  52  32  55  37  46 /   0   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  53  30  57  36  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
CALERA      52  33  56  36  48 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      51  33  55  37  50 /   0   0   0  10  20
MONTGOMERY  55  31  58  37  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        55  32  57  37  55 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 061005
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
405 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND PRODUCE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ALABAMA.
HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR FRIDAYS VALUES WITH 50S AREAWIDE. SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND BRING A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR
INTO ALABAMA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL NOT REALLY BE A
DISTINCT COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MORE LIKE A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS FALL. THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE ON TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER LOW. THE FIRST WAVE WILL ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROFILES
SHOW TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY WILL CAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THERE
COULD BE A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE. THE AIR MASS SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
NO ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP INTO A TROF AND SHIFT
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG JET STREAM WILL SWING
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...THIS WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS TO DEVELOP.
A FEW MODELS INDICATE SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING JUST
AHEAD OF THE FEATURE SATURDAY...BUT THESE CEILINGS WOULD ONLY BE
AROUND 5K FT NEAR ANB/MGM/TOI. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  28  54  34  44 /   0   0   0  20  30
ANNISTON    52  30  55  36  46 /   0   0   0  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  52  32  55  37  46 /   0   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  53  30  57  36  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
CALERA      52  33  56  36  48 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      51  33  55  37  50 /   0   0   0  10  20
MONTGOMERY  55  31  58  37  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        55  32  57  37  55 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 061005
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
405 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND PRODUCE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ALABAMA.
HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR FRIDAYS VALUES WITH 50S AREAWIDE. SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND BRING A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR
INTO ALABAMA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL NOT REALLY BE A
DISTINCT COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MORE LIKE A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS FALL. THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE ON TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER LOW. THE FIRST WAVE WILL ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROFILES
SHOW TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY WILL CAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THERE
COULD BE A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE. THE AIR MASS SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
NO ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP INTO A TROF AND SHIFT
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG JET STREAM WILL SWING
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...THIS WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS TO DEVELOP.
A FEW MODELS INDICATE SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING JUST
AHEAD OF THE FEATURE SATURDAY...BUT THESE CEILINGS WOULD ONLY BE
AROUND 5K FT NEAR ANB/MGM/TOI. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  28  54  34  44 /   0   0   0  20  30
ANNISTON    52  30  55  36  46 /   0   0   0  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  52  32  55  37  46 /   0   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  53  30  57  36  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
CALERA      52  33  56  36  48 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      51  33  55  37  50 /   0   0   0  10  20
MONTGOMERY  55  31  58  37  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        55  32  57  37  55 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 060550
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1150 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WILL ONLY NEED TO MAKE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY AND CHILLY
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG JET STREAM WILL SWING
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...THIS WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS TO DEVELOP.
A FEW MODELS INDICATE SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING JUST
AHEAD OF THE FEATURE SATURDAY...BUT THESE CEILINGS WOULD ONLY BE
AROUND 5K FT NEAR ANB/MGM/TOI. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 345 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING...AND LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TODAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL
INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TOMORROW. DESPITE THE TROUGH...A
SIGNIFICANT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. BRIEF MID LEVEL RIDGING ON SUNDAY AND
CLEARING SKIES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND
CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A
SERIES OF IMPULSES WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SQUEEZE OUT
SOME MOISTURE BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A WARM SURFACE LAYER
WILL PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION MONDAY. AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...PROFILES COOL IN THE LOWEST 1KFT AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS MOISTURE IS NOT DEEP
ENOUGH AND A DRIER LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE SOME MOISTURE
TO EVAPORATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
RAW MODEL OUTPUT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 25-30 DEGREE RANGE.

THE CLOSED LOW AND MAIN FORCING WITHIN THE TROUGH PULL TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WE STAY ON THE BACK OF THE TROUGH AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WARM ADVECTION RETURNS WEDNESDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY MODERATE. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE 50S
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  50  28  54  34 /   0   0   0   0  20
ANNISTON    27  52  29  54  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  29  51  31  55  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  27  52  30  57  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      30  52  32  55  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      29  51  32  54  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  28  56  31  56  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        28  55  31  56  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 060550
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1150 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WILL ONLY NEED TO MAKE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY AND CHILLY
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG JET STREAM WILL SWING
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...THIS WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS TO DEVELOP.
A FEW MODELS INDICATE SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING JUST
AHEAD OF THE FEATURE SATURDAY...BUT THESE CEILINGS WOULD ONLY BE
AROUND 5K FT NEAR ANB/MGM/TOI. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 345 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING...AND LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TODAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL
INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TOMORROW. DESPITE THE TROUGH...A
SIGNIFICANT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. BRIEF MID LEVEL RIDGING ON SUNDAY AND
CLEARING SKIES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND
CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A
SERIES OF IMPULSES WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SQUEEZE OUT
SOME MOISTURE BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A WARM SURFACE LAYER
WILL PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION MONDAY. AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...PROFILES COOL IN THE LOWEST 1KFT AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS MOISTURE IS NOT DEEP
ENOUGH AND A DRIER LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE SOME MOISTURE
TO EVAPORATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
RAW MODEL OUTPUT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 25-30 DEGREE RANGE.

THE CLOSED LOW AND MAIN FORCING WITHIN THE TROUGH PULL TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WE STAY ON THE BACK OF THE TROUGH AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WARM ADVECTION RETURNS WEDNESDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY MODERATE. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE 50S
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  50  28  54  34 /   0   0   0   0  20
ANNISTON    27  52  29  54  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  29  51  31  55  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  27  52  30  57  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      30  52  32  55  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      29  51  32  54  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  28  56  31  56  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        28  55  31  56  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 060550
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1150 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WILL ONLY NEED TO MAKE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY AND CHILLY
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG JET STREAM WILL SWING
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...THIS WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS TO DEVELOP.
A FEW MODELS INDICATE SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING JUST
AHEAD OF THE FEATURE SATURDAY...BUT THESE CEILINGS WOULD ONLY BE
AROUND 5K FT NEAR ANB/MGM/TOI. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 345 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING...AND LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TODAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL
INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TOMORROW. DESPITE THE TROUGH...A
SIGNIFICANT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. BRIEF MID LEVEL RIDGING ON SUNDAY AND
CLEARING SKIES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND
CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A
SERIES OF IMPULSES WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SQUEEZE OUT
SOME MOISTURE BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A WARM SURFACE LAYER
WILL PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION MONDAY. AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...PROFILES COOL IN THE LOWEST 1KFT AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS MOISTURE IS NOT DEEP
ENOUGH AND A DRIER LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE SOME MOISTURE
TO EVAPORATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
RAW MODEL OUTPUT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 25-30 DEGREE RANGE.

THE CLOSED LOW AND MAIN FORCING WITHIN THE TROUGH PULL TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WE STAY ON THE BACK OF THE TROUGH AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WARM ADVECTION RETURNS WEDNESDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY MODERATE. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE 50S
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  50  28  54  34 /   0   0   0   0  20
ANNISTON    27  52  29  54  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  29  51  31  55  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  27  52  30  57  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      30  52  32  55  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      29  51  32  54  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  28  56  31  56  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        28  55  31  56  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 060341
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
941 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WILL ONLY NEED TO MAKE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY AND CHILLY
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST TO
EAST OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. WINDS GO GENERALLY LIGHT TONIGHT AND
BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY TO VARIABLE TOMORROW. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH.

14

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 060341
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
941 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WILL ONLY NEED TO MAKE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY AND CHILLY
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST TO
EAST OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. WINDS GO GENERALLY LIGHT TONIGHT AND
BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY TO VARIABLE TOMORROW. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH.

14

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 060341
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
941 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WILL ONLY NEED TO MAKE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY AND CHILLY
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST TO
EAST OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. WINDS GO GENERALLY LIGHT TONIGHT AND
BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY TO VARIABLE TOMORROW. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH.

14

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 052337
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
537 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING...AND LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TODAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL
INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TOMORROW. DESPITE THE TROUGH...A
SIGNIFICANT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. BRIEF MID LEVEL RIDGING ON SUNDAY AND
CLEARING SKIES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND
CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A
SERIES OF IMPULSES WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SQUEEZE OUT
SOME MOISTURE BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A WARM SURFACE LAYER
WILL PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION MONDAY. AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...PROFILES COOL IN THE LOWEST 1KFT AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS MOISTURE IS NOT DEEP
ENOUGH AND A DRIER LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE SOME MOISTURE
TO EVAPORATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
RAW MODEL OUTPUT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 25-30 DEGREE RANGE.

THE CLOSED LOW AND MAIN FORCING WITHIN THE TROUGH PULL TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WE STAY ON THE BACK OF THE TROUGH AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WARM ADVECTION RETURNS WEDNESDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY MODERATE. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE 50S
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST TO
EAST OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. WINDS GO GENERALLY LIGHT TONIGHT AND
BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY TO VARIABLE TOMORROW. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  50  28  54  34 /   0   0   0   0  20
ANNISTON    27  52  29  54  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  29  51  31  55  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  27  52  30  57  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      30  52  32  55  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      29  51  32  54  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  28  56  31  56  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        28  55  31  56  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 052337
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
537 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING...AND LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TODAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL
INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TOMORROW. DESPITE THE TROUGH...A
SIGNIFICANT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. BRIEF MID LEVEL RIDGING ON SUNDAY AND
CLEARING SKIES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND
CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A
SERIES OF IMPULSES WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SQUEEZE OUT
SOME MOISTURE BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A WARM SURFACE LAYER
WILL PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION MONDAY. AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...PROFILES COOL IN THE LOWEST 1KFT AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS MOISTURE IS NOT DEEP
ENOUGH AND A DRIER LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE SOME MOISTURE
TO EVAPORATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
RAW MODEL OUTPUT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 25-30 DEGREE RANGE.

THE CLOSED LOW AND MAIN FORCING WITHIN THE TROUGH PULL TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WE STAY ON THE BACK OF THE TROUGH AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WARM ADVECTION RETURNS WEDNESDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY MODERATE. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE 50S
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST TO
EAST OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. WINDS GO GENERALLY LIGHT TONIGHT AND
BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY TO VARIABLE TOMORROW. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  50  28  54  34 /   0   0   0   0  20
ANNISTON    27  52  29  54  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  29  51  31  55  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  27  52  30  57  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      30  52  32  55  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      29  51  32  54  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  28  56  31  56  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        28  55  31  56  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 052337
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
537 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING...AND LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TODAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL
INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TOMORROW. DESPITE THE TROUGH...A
SIGNIFICANT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. BRIEF MID LEVEL RIDGING ON SUNDAY AND
CLEARING SKIES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND
CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A
SERIES OF IMPULSES WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SQUEEZE OUT
SOME MOISTURE BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A WARM SURFACE LAYER
WILL PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION MONDAY. AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...PROFILES COOL IN THE LOWEST 1KFT AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS MOISTURE IS NOT DEEP
ENOUGH AND A DRIER LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE SOME MOISTURE
TO EVAPORATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
RAW MODEL OUTPUT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 25-30 DEGREE RANGE.

THE CLOSED LOW AND MAIN FORCING WITHIN THE TROUGH PULL TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WE STAY ON THE BACK OF THE TROUGH AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WARM ADVECTION RETURNS WEDNESDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY MODERATE. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE 50S
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST TO
EAST OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. WINDS GO GENERALLY LIGHT TONIGHT AND
BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY TO VARIABLE TOMORROW. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  50  28  54  34 /   0   0   0   0  20
ANNISTON    27  52  29  54  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  29  51  31  55  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  27  52  30  57  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      30  52  32  55  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      29  51  32  54  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  28  56  31  56  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        28  55  31  56  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 052145
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
345 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING...AND LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TODAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL
INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TOMORROW. DESPITE THE TROUGH...A
SIGNIFICANT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. BRIEF MID LEVEL RIDGING ON SUNDAY AND
CLEARING SKIES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND
CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A
SERIES OF IMPULSES WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SQUEEZE OUT
SOME MOISTURE BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A WARM SURFACE LAYER
WILL PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION MONDAY. AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...PROFILES COOL IN THE LOWEST 1KFT AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS MOISTURE IS NOT DEEP
ENOUGH AND A DRIER LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE SOME MOISTURE
TO EVAPORATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
RAW MODEL OUTPUT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 25-30 DEGREE RANGE.

THE CLOSED LOW AND MAIN FORCING WITHIN THE TROUGH PULL TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WE STAY ON THE BACK OF THE TROUGH AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WARM ADVECTION RETURNS WEDNESDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY MODERATE. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE 50S
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.
WINDS WILL BE N TO NNE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KTS...GUSTING TO
15-20 KTS AT MGM/TOI...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

32/DAVIS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  50  28  54  34 /   0   0   0   0  20
ANNISTON    27  52  29  54  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  29  51  31  55  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  27  52  30  57  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      30  52  32  55  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      29  51  32  54  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  28  56  31  56  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        28  55  31  56  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 052145
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
345 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING...AND LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TODAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL
INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TOMORROW. DESPITE THE TROUGH...A
SIGNIFICANT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. BRIEF MID LEVEL RIDGING ON SUNDAY AND
CLEARING SKIES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND
CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A
SERIES OF IMPULSES WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SQUEEZE OUT
SOME MOISTURE BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A WARM SURFACE LAYER
WILL PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION MONDAY. AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...PROFILES COOL IN THE LOWEST 1KFT AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS MOISTURE IS NOT DEEP
ENOUGH AND A DRIER LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE SOME MOISTURE
TO EVAPORATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
RAW MODEL OUTPUT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 25-30 DEGREE RANGE.

THE CLOSED LOW AND MAIN FORCING WITHIN THE TROUGH PULL TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WE STAY ON THE BACK OF THE TROUGH AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WARM ADVECTION RETURNS WEDNESDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY MODERATE. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE 50S
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.
WINDS WILL BE N TO NNE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KTS...GUSTING TO
15-20 KTS AT MGM/TOI...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

32/DAVIS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  50  28  54  34 /   0   0   0   0  20
ANNISTON    27  52  29  54  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  29  51  31  55  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  27  52  30  57  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      30  52  32  55  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      29  51  32  54  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  28  56  31  56  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        28  55  31  56  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 052145
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
345 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING...AND LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TODAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL
INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TOMORROW. DESPITE THE TROUGH...A
SIGNIFICANT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. BRIEF MID LEVEL RIDGING ON SUNDAY AND
CLEARING SKIES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND
CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A
SERIES OF IMPULSES WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SQUEEZE OUT
SOME MOISTURE BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A WARM SURFACE LAYER
WILL PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION MONDAY. AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...PROFILES COOL IN THE LOWEST 1KFT AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS MOISTURE IS NOT DEEP
ENOUGH AND A DRIER LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE SOME MOISTURE
TO EVAPORATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
RAW MODEL OUTPUT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 25-30 DEGREE RANGE.

THE CLOSED LOW AND MAIN FORCING WITHIN THE TROUGH PULL TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WE STAY ON THE BACK OF THE TROUGH AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WARM ADVECTION RETURNS WEDNESDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY MODERATE. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE 50S
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.
WINDS WILL BE N TO NNE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KTS...GUSTING TO
15-20 KTS AT MGM/TOI...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

32/DAVIS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  50  28  54  34 /   0   0   0   0  20
ANNISTON    27  52  29  54  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  29  51  31  55  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  27  52  30  57  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      30  52  32  55  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      29  51  32  54  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  28  56  31  56  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        28  55  31  56  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 051728
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1128 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GULF
MOISTURE REMAINS CUT-OFF DUE TO WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW. A FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES WILL
PASS THROUGH ALABAMA THIS WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM
WILL ONLY PRODUCE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
A MORE ROBUST AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SMALL
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN LATE SUNDAY MIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST WAVE OF COLDER AIR
ARRIVES ON MONDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO WARM BELOW 850MB FOR
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH NEXT WEEK. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF ALABAMA AND IT WILL NOT BE AROUND VERY LONG.
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE
COVERAGE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FORMATION OF
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AND NOT ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATIONS. THERE COULD BE A DUSTING ON SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP CONSIDERABLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.
WINDS WILL BE N TO NNE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KTS...GUSTING TO
15-20 KTS AT MGM/TOI...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REACHING THE MIDDLE 20S. SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  26  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    49  28  51  30  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  50  29  52  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  52  28  52  31  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      50  29  52  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      51  30  52  33  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  53  29  55  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        53  29  54  33  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 051728
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1128 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GULF
MOISTURE REMAINS CUT-OFF DUE TO WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW. A FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES WILL
PASS THROUGH ALABAMA THIS WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM
WILL ONLY PRODUCE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
A MORE ROBUST AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SMALL
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN LATE SUNDAY MIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST WAVE OF COLDER AIR
ARRIVES ON MONDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO WARM BELOW 850MB FOR
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH NEXT WEEK. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF ALABAMA AND IT WILL NOT BE AROUND VERY LONG.
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE
COVERAGE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FORMATION OF
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AND NOT ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATIONS. THERE COULD BE A DUSTING ON SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP CONSIDERABLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.
WINDS WILL BE N TO NNE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KTS...GUSTING TO
15-20 KTS AT MGM/TOI...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REACHING THE MIDDLE 20S. SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  26  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    49  28  51  30  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  50  29  52  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  52  28  52  31  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      50  29  52  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      51  30  52  33  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  53  29  55  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        53  29  54  33  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 051728
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1128 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GULF
MOISTURE REMAINS CUT-OFF DUE TO WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW. A FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES WILL
PASS THROUGH ALABAMA THIS WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM
WILL ONLY PRODUCE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
A MORE ROBUST AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SMALL
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN LATE SUNDAY MIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST WAVE OF COLDER AIR
ARRIVES ON MONDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO WARM BELOW 850MB FOR
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH NEXT WEEK. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF ALABAMA AND IT WILL NOT BE AROUND VERY LONG.
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE
COVERAGE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FORMATION OF
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AND NOT ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATIONS. THERE COULD BE A DUSTING ON SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP CONSIDERABLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.
WINDS WILL BE N TO NNE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KTS...GUSTING TO
15-20 KTS AT MGM/TOI...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

32/DAVIS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REACHING THE MIDDLE 20S. SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  26  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    49  28  51  30  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  50  29  52  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  52  28  52  31  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      50  29  52  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      51  30  52  33  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  53  29  55  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        53  29  54  33  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 051243
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
643 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GULF
MOISTURE REMAINS CUT-OFF DUE TO WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW. A FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES WILL
PASS THROUGH ALABAMA THIS WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM
WILL ONLY PRODUCE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
A MORE ROBUST AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SMALL
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN LATE SUNDAY MIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST WAVE OF COLDER AIR
ARRIVES ON MONDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO WARM BELOW 850MB FOR
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH NEXT WEEK. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF ALABAMA AND IT WILL NOT BE AROUND VERY LONG.
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE
COVERAGE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FORMATION OF
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AND NOT ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATIONS. THERE COULD BE A DUSTING ON SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP CONSIDERABLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES.
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE NORTH TODAY AROUND 10
KNOTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT KTOI
AND KMGM LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REACHING THE MIDDLE 20S. SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  26  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    49  28  51  30  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  50  29  52  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  52  28  52  31  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      50  29  52  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      51  30  52  33  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  53  29  55  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        53  29  54  33  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 051243
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
643 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GULF
MOISTURE REMAINS CUT-OFF DUE TO WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW. A FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES WILL
PASS THROUGH ALABAMA THIS WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM
WILL ONLY PRODUCE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
A MORE ROBUST AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SMALL
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN LATE SUNDAY MIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST WAVE OF COLDER AIR
ARRIVES ON MONDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO WARM BELOW 850MB FOR
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH NEXT WEEK. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF ALABAMA AND IT WILL NOT BE AROUND VERY LONG.
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE
COVERAGE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FORMATION OF
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AND NOT ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATIONS. THERE COULD BE A DUSTING ON SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP CONSIDERABLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES.
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE NORTH TODAY AROUND 10
KNOTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT KTOI
AND KMGM LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REACHING THE MIDDLE 20S. SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  26  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    49  28  51  30  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  50  29  52  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  52  28  52  31  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      50  29  52  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      51  30  52  33  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  53  29  55  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        53  29  54  33  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 051243
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
643 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GULF
MOISTURE REMAINS CUT-OFF DUE TO WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW. A FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES WILL
PASS THROUGH ALABAMA THIS WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM
WILL ONLY PRODUCE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
A MORE ROBUST AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SMALL
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN LATE SUNDAY MIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST WAVE OF COLDER AIR
ARRIVES ON MONDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO WARM BELOW 850MB FOR
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH NEXT WEEK. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF ALABAMA AND IT WILL NOT BE AROUND VERY LONG.
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE
COVERAGE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FORMATION OF
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AND NOT ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATIONS. THERE COULD BE A DUSTING ON SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP CONSIDERABLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES.
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE NORTH TODAY AROUND 10
KNOTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT KTOI
AND KMGM LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REACHING THE MIDDLE 20S. SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  26  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    49  28  51  30  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  50  29  52  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  52  28  52  31  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      50  29  52  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      51  30  52  33  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  53  29  55  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        53  29  54  33  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 050924
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
324 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GULF
MOISTURE REMAINS CUT-OFF DUE TO WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW. A FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES WILL
PASS THROUGH ALABAMA THIS WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM
WILL ONLY PRODUCE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
A MORE ROBUST AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SMALL
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN LATE SUNDAY MIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST WAVE OF COLDER AIR
ARRIVES ON MONDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO WARM BELOW 850MB FOR
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH NEXT WEEK. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL STAY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF ALABAMA AND IT WILL NOT BE AROUND VERY LONG.
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE
COVERAGE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE FORMATION OF
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AND NOT ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATIONS. THERE COULD BE A DUSTING ON SOME
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP CONSIDERABLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA. NORTH WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KTS THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...WITH SOME VARIABILITY FROM 310-030. VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS
EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REACHING THE MIDDLE 20S. SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  26  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    49  28  51  30  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  50  29  52  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  52  28  52  31  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      50  29  52  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      51  30  52  33  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  53  29  55  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        53  29  54  33  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 050528
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1128 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ONGOING FORECAST APPEARS TO REMAIN ON TRACK...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAISN OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA. NORTH WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KTS THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...WITH SOME VARIABILITY FROM 310-030. VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS
EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

08

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 347 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT TODAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN CONUS
INTO THE GULF INTO FRIDAY. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
RESULT. OVERALL COOL AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SOME CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED OFF AND ON THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A FEW WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRONT WILL APPROACH AND BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHING INTO TUESDAY BEHIND IT. MOISTURE IS
LOOKING LESS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. SO...HAVE NOT
GONE ANY HIGHER WITH POPS BUT LOWER IN A FEW SPOTS. THE ATMOSPHERE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE BUT ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND VERY LOW
QPF IS ANTICIPATED. CONTINUE TO THINK THAT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL IF ANY. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE FROM THE VERY COLD
ARCTIC AIR THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GONE WITH MORE OF THE
RAW MODEL DATA FOR TEMPERATURES TO ALLOW FOR THE COLDER READINGS
AS THE BLEND HAS BEEN TRENDING MUCH WARMER. AFTER TUESDAY END OF
FORECAST IS DRY.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  49  26  51  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    29  50  28  51  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  29  51  29  52  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  28  53  28  53  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      30  51  29  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      30  51  30  52  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  30  54  29  55  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        31  53  29  55  33 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 050528
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1128 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ONGOING FORECAST APPEARS TO REMAIN ON TRACK...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAISN OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA. NORTH WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KTS THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...WITH SOME VARIABILITY FROM 310-030. VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS
EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

08

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 347 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT TODAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN CONUS
INTO THE GULF INTO FRIDAY. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
RESULT. OVERALL COOL AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SOME CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED OFF AND ON THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A FEW WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRONT WILL APPROACH AND BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHING INTO TUESDAY BEHIND IT. MOISTURE IS
LOOKING LESS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. SO...HAVE NOT
GONE ANY HIGHER WITH POPS BUT LOWER IN A FEW SPOTS. THE ATMOSPHERE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE BUT ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND VERY LOW
QPF IS ANTICIPATED. CONTINUE TO THINK THAT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL IF ANY. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE FROM THE VERY COLD
ARCTIC AIR THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GONE WITH MORE OF THE
RAW MODEL DATA FOR TEMPERATURES TO ALLOW FOR THE COLDER READINGS
AS THE BLEND HAS BEEN TRENDING MUCH WARMER. AFTER TUESDAY END OF
FORECAST IS DRY.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  49  26  51  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    29  50  28  51  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  29  51  29  52  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  28  53  28  53  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      30  51  29  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      30  51  30  52  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  30  54  29  55  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        31  53  29  55  33 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 050257
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
857 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

ONGOING FORECAST APPEARS TO REMAIN ON TRACK...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE
FROM THE WEST. NORTH NORTH WEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A HOUR OR
SO THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY LIGHTEN UP TO 5 TO 10 KTS.
WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN 5 TO 10 KTS NNW THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS EXPECTED.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

08

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 042349
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
549 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT TODAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN CONUS
INTO THE GULF INTO FRIDAY. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
RESULT. OVERALL COOL AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SOME CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED OFF AND ON THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A FEW WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRONT WILL APPROACH AND BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHING INTO TUESDAY BEHIND IT. MOISTURE IS
LOOKING LESS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. SO...HAVE NOT
GONE ANY HIGHER WITH POPS BUT LOWER IN A FEW SPOTS. THE ATMOSPHERE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE BUT ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND VERY LOW
QPF IS ANTICIPATED. CONTINUE TO THINK THAT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL IF ANY. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE FROM THE VERY COLD
ARCTIC AIR THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GONE WITH MORE OF THE
RAW MODEL DATA FOR TEMPERATURES TO ALLOW FOR THE COLDER READINGS
AS THE BLEND HAS BEEN TRENDING MUCH WARMER. AFTER TUESDAY END OF
FORECAST IS DRY.

08


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE
FROM THE WEST. NORTH NORTH WEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A HOUR OR
SO THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY LIGHTEN UP TO 5 TO 10 KTS.
WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN 5 TO 10 KTS NNW THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS EXPECTED.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  49  26  51  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    29  50  28  51  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  29  51  29  52  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  28  53  28  53  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      30  51  29  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      30  51  30  52  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  30  54  29  55  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        31  53  29  55  33 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 042349
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
549 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT TODAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN CONUS
INTO THE GULF INTO FRIDAY. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
RESULT. OVERALL COOL AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SOME CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED OFF AND ON THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A FEW WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRONT WILL APPROACH AND BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHING INTO TUESDAY BEHIND IT. MOISTURE IS
LOOKING LESS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. SO...HAVE NOT
GONE ANY HIGHER WITH POPS BUT LOWER IN A FEW SPOTS. THE ATMOSPHERE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE BUT ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND VERY LOW
QPF IS ANTICIPATED. CONTINUE TO THINK THAT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL IF ANY. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE FROM THE VERY COLD
ARCTIC AIR THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GONE WITH MORE OF THE
RAW MODEL DATA FOR TEMPERATURES TO ALLOW FOR THE COLDER READINGS
AS THE BLEND HAS BEEN TRENDING MUCH WARMER. AFTER TUESDAY END OF
FORECAST IS DRY.

08


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE
FROM THE WEST. NORTH NORTH WEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A HOUR OR
SO THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY LIGHTEN UP TO 5 TO 10 KTS.
WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN 5 TO 10 KTS NNW THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS EXPECTED.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  49  26  51  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    29  50  28  51  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  29  51  29  52  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  28  53  28  53  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      30  51  29  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      30  51  30  52  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  30  54  29  55  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        31  53  29  55  33 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 042349
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
549 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT TODAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN CONUS
INTO THE GULF INTO FRIDAY. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
RESULT. OVERALL COOL AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SOME CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED OFF AND ON THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A FEW WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRONT WILL APPROACH AND BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHING INTO TUESDAY BEHIND IT. MOISTURE IS
LOOKING LESS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. SO...HAVE NOT
GONE ANY HIGHER WITH POPS BUT LOWER IN A FEW SPOTS. THE ATMOSPHERE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE BUT ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND VERY LOW
QPF IS ANTICIPATED. CONTINUE TO THINK THAT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL IF ANY. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE FROM THE VERY COLD
ARCTIC AIR THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GONE WITH MORE OF THE
RAW MODEL DATA FOR TEMPERATURES TO ALLOW FOR THE COLDER READINGS
AS THE BLEND HAS BEEN TRENDING MUCH WARMER. AFTER TUESDAY END OF
FORECAST IS DRY.

08


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE
FROM THE WEST. NORTH NORTH WEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A HOUR OR
SO THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY LIGHTEN UP TO 5 TO 10 KTS.
WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN 5 TO 10 KTS NNW THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS EXPECTED.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  49  26  51  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    29  50  28  51  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  29  51  29  52  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  28  53  28  53  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      30  51  29  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      30  51  30  52  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  30  54  29  55  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        31  53  29  55  33 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 042147
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
347 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT TODAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN CONUS
INTO THE GULF INTO FRIDAY. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
RESULT. OVERALL COOL AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SOME CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED OFF AND ON THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A FEW WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRONT WILL APPROACH AND BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHING INTO TUESDAY BEHIND IT. MOISTURE IS
LOOKING LESS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. SO...HAVE NOT
GONE ANY HIGHER WITH POPS BUT LOWER IN A FEW SPOTS. THE ATMOSPHERE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE BUT ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND VERY LOW
QPF IS ANTICIPATED. CONTINUE TO THINK THAT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL IF ANY. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE FROM THE VERY COLD
ARCTIC AIR THAT MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GONE WITH MORE OF THE
RAW MODEL DATA FOR TEMPERATURES TO ALLOW FOR THE COLDER READINGS
AS THE BLEND HAS BEEN TRENDING MUCH WARMER. AFTER TUESDAY END OF
FORECAST IS DRY.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ONLY AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WITH BE BREEZY NNW WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLY CONTINUING UNTIL 06Z AT MGM/TOI.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  49  26  51  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    29  50  28  51  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  29  51  29  52  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  28  53  28  53  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      30  51  29  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      30  51  30  52  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  30  54  29  55  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        31  53  29  55  33 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/19





000
FXUS64 KBMX 041725
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1125 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

IT`S SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE...BUT SOMEWHAT COOL...DAY ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS WILL GUST
UPWARDS OF 20-25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON WARMING
TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SOME LOCATIONS. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 40S
IN THE NORTH AND THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ONLY AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WITH BE BREEZY NNW WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLY CONTINUING UNTIL 06Z AT MGM/TOI.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 337 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

A PUSH OF DRIER AND COLDER AIR HAS KEPT SURFACE WINDS IN THE 5-15
MPH RANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COLDER TODAY WITH HIGHS AVERAGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AS A SHORT
WAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A 1032MB SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

A VERY ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX BREAKS OFF AND
DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR TO REACH THE LOWER 48 STATES THIS WINTER SEASON. THE
BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL LIKELY AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL PRECEDE THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST ARCTIC FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM FOR ANY WINTER
MIXTURE AND KEPT EVERYTHING IN THE LIQUID FORM. THE AIR MASS WILL
GRADUALLY GET COLDER AS SEVERAL WAVES OF COLDER AIR ROTATE AROUND
THE COLD UPPER CORE LOW. NORTH ALABAMA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF ANY ASSOCIATED BANDS OF PRECIPITATION...AND KEPT LOW
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS PROFILES SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION...AND LIGHT SNOW
SNOW FORECAST FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20. A GRADUAL WARM-UP AFTER
WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME WESTERLY WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  26  48  27  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    51  28  48  28  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  49  28  50  30  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  51  28  52  30  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      50  30  50  30  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      52  30  50  31  52 /  10   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  55  30  52  31  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        56  31  51  31  54 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 041133
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
533 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A PUSH OF DRIER AND COLDER AIR HAS KEPT SURFACE WINDS IN THE 5-15
MPH RANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COLDER TODAY WITH HIGHS AVERAGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AS A SHORT
WAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A 1032MB SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

A VERY ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AIR MASS WILL
BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX BREAKS OFF AND
DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR TO REACH THE LOWER 48 STATES THIS WINTER SEASON. THE
BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL LIKELY AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL PRECEDE THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST ARCTIC FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM FOR ANY WINTER
MIXTURE AND KEPT EVERYTHING IN THE LIQUID FORM. THE AIR MASS WILL
GRADUALLY GET COLDER AS SEVERAL WAVES OF COLDER AIR ROTATE AROUND
THE COLD UPPER CORE LOW. NORTH ALABAMA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF ANY ASSOCIATED BANDS OF PRECIPITATION...AND KEPT LOW
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS PROFILES SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION...AND LIGHT SNOW
IS FORECAST FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20. A GRADUAL WARM-UP AFTER
WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME WESTERLY WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ONLY AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PREVAILING FROM 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  26  48  27  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    48  28  48  28  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  49  28  50  30  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  50  28  52  30  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      49  30  50  30  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      52  30  50  31  52 /  10   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  53  30  52  31  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        53  31  51  31  54 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 041133
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
533 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A PUSH OF DRIER AND COLDER AIR HAS KEPT SURFACE WINDS IN THE 5-15
MPH RANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COLDER TODAY WITH HIGHS AVERAGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AS A SHORT
WAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A 1032MB SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

A VERY ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AIR MASS WILL
BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX BREAKS OFF AND
DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR TO REACH THE LOWER 48 STATES THIS WINTER SEASON. THE
BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL LIKELY AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL PRECEDE THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST ARCTIC FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM FOR ANY WINTER
MIXTURE AND KEPT EVERYTHING IN THE LIQUID FORM. THE AIR MASS WILL
GRADUALLY GET COLDER AS SEVERAL WAVES OF COLDER AIR ROTATE AROUND
THE COLD UPPER CORE LOW. NORTH ALABAMA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF ANY ASSOCIATED BANDS OF PRECIPITATION...AND KEPT LOW
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS PROFILES SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION...AND LIGHT SNOW
IS FORECAST FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20. A GRADUAL WARM-UP AFTER
WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME WESTERLY WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ONLY AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PREVAILING FROM 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  26  48  27  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    48  28  48  28  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  49  28  50  30  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  50  28  52  30  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      49  30  50  30  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      52  30  50  31  52 /  10   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  53  30  52  31  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        53  31  51  31  54 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 041133
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
533 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A PUSH OF DRIER AND COLDER AIR HAS KEPT SURFACE WINDS IN THE 5-15
MPH RANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COLDER TODAY WITH HIGHS AVERAGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AS A SHORT
WAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A 1032MB SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

A VERY ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AIR MASS WILL
BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX BREAKS OFF AND
DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR TO REACH THE LOWER 48 STATES THIS WINTER SEASON. THE
BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL LIKELY AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL PRECEDE THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST ARCTIC FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM FOR ANY WINTER
MIXTURE AND KEPT EVERYTHING IN THE LIQUID FORM. THE AIR MASS WILL
GRADUALLY GET COLDER AS SEVERAL WAVES OF COLDER AIR ROTATE AROUND
THE COLD UPPER CORE LOW. NORTH ALABAMA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF ANY ASSOCIATED BANDS OF PRECIPITATION...AND KEPT LOW
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS PROFILES SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION...AND LIGHT SNOW
IS FORECAST FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20. A GRADUAL WARM-UP AFTER
WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME WESTERLY WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ONLY AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PREVAILING FROM 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  26  48  27  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    48  28  48  28  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  49  28  50  30  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  50  28  52  30  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      49  30  50  30  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      52  30  50  31  52 /  10   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  53  30  52  31  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        53  31  51  31  54 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 040937
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
337 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A PUSH OF DRIER AND COLDER AIR HAS KEPT SURFACE WINDS IN THE 5-15
MPH RANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COLDER TODAY WITH HIGHS AVERAGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AS A SHORT
WAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A 1032MB SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

A VERY ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX BREAKS OFF AND
DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR TO REACH THE LOWER 48 STATES THIS WINTER SEASON. THE
BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL LIKELY AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL PRECEDE THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST ARCTIC FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM FOR ANY WINTER
MIXTURE AND KEPT EVERYTHING IN THE LIQUID FORM. THE AIR MASS WILL
GRADUALLY GET COLDER AS SEVERAL WAVES OF COLDER AIR ROTATE AROUND
THE COLD UPPER CORE LOW. NORTH ALABAMA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF ANY ASSOCIATED BANDS OF PRECIPITATION...AND KEPT LOW
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS PROFILES SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION...AND LIGHT SNOW
SNOW FORECAST FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20. A GRADUAL WARM-UP AFTER
WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME WESTERLY WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS WAS COVERING HALF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL SLOWLY BRING AN END TO THE VFR CEILINGS. TOI
MAY SEE THESE CLOUDS HANG AROUND LONGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS AT
ALL LOCATIONS.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  26  48  27  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    48  28  48  28  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  49  28  50  30  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  50  28  52  30  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      49  30  50  30  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      52  30  50  31  52 /  10   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  53  30  52  31  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        53  31  51  31  54 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 040558
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1158 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BEHIND THIS
AREA AS A LARGER AREA OF SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH A MUCH COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE
OVER ALABAMA. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER EAST OVER CONUS INCLUDING THE DEEP
SOUTH AND GULF COAST. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING SPREADS
FROM TEXAS AND ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL COOL AIR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY MONDAY...A FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY MONDAY AND BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IN THIS INSTANCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE THE PROPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TIME TO ALLOW FOR ANY
WARM OR VERY MOIST AIR TO INFILTRATE AHEAD OF TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT BUT WITH OVERALL A COOLER AIR MASS.
SOUNDINGS ARE DEFINITELY COOLER ALOFT IN THE PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION ZONE. SO...WILL HAVE SOME LOW QPF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND IT AT TIMES AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS ACROSS EASTERN
CONUS ALLOWING FOR THE TROUGHING TO LINGER AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
END OF OUR FORECAST TOWARD MID WEEK. AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
COLD...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVERALL AND DURING THE DAY
EITHER MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN OR ALL LIGHT RAIN.

08


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS WAS COVERING HALF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL SLOWLY BRING AN END TO THE VFR CEILINGS. TOI
MAY SEE THESE CLOUDS HANG AROUND LONGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS AT
ALL LOCATIONS.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND IT. LOOK FOR RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     35  49  26  50  27 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    37  50  28  50  28 /  10   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  35  50  29  51  30 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  36  52  28  52  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      37  52  30  52  30 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      42  53  31  53  31 /  20  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  40  55  31  54  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        43  55  31  54  31 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 040017
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
617 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BEHIND THIS
AREA AS A LARGER AREA OF SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH A MUCH COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE
OVER ALABAMA. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER EAST OVER CONUS INCLUDING THE DEEP
SOUTH AND GULF COAST. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING SPREADS
FROM TEXAS AND ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL COOL AIR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY MONDAY...A FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY MONDAY AND BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IN THIS INSTANCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE THE PROPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TIME TO ALLOW FOR ANY
WARM OR VERY MOIST AIR TO INFILTRATE AHEAD OF TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT BUT WITH OVERALL A COOLER AIR MASS.
SOUNDINGS ARE DEFINITELY COOLER ALOFT IN THE PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION ZONE. SO...WILL HAVE SOME LOW QPF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND IT AT TIMES AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS ACROSS EASTERN
CONUS ALLOWING FOR THE TROUGHING TO LINGER AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
END OF OUR FORECAST TOWARD MID WEEK. AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
COLD...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVERALL AND DURING THE DAY
EITHER MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN OR ALL LIGHT RAIN.

08


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WWAS
LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT...SO THE FRONT WILL ONLY INCH EASTWARD. KEPT THE
MENTION OF A FEW SHOWERS AT TOI UNTIL 01Z AND WILL WATCH RADAR FRO
THE PROGRESSION OF EXITING MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL
SLOWLY BRING AN END TO THE VFR CEILINGS AND GENERALLY HAVE THE
MOISTURE DROPPING OFF BEGINNING AFTER 04Z. TOI MAY SEE THESE
CLOUDS HANG AROUND LONGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS
SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST 5-10KTS TONIGHT...AROUND 11KTS
TOMORROW.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND IT. LOOK FOR RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     35  49  26  50  27 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    37  50  28  50  28 /  10   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  35  50  29  51  30 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  36  52  28  52  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      37  52  30  52  30 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      42  53  31  53  31 /  20  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  40  55  31  54  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        43  55  31  54  31 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 040017
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
617 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BEHIND THIS
AREA AS A LARGER AREA OF SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH A MUCH COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE
OVER ALABAMA. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER EAST OVER CONUS INCLUDING THE DEEP
SOUTH AND GULF COAST. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING SPREADS
FROM TEXAS AND ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL COOL AIR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY MONDAY...A FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY MONDAY AND BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IN THIS INSTANCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE THE PROPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TIME TO ALLOW FOR ANY
WARM OR VERY MOIST AIR TO INFILTRATE AHEAD OF TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT BUT WITH OVERALL A COOLER AIR MASS.
SOUNDINGS ARE DEFINITELY COOLER ALOFT IN THE PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION ZONE. SO...WILL HAVE SOME LOW QPF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND IT AT TIMES AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS ACROSS EASTERN
CONUS ALLOWING FOR THE TROUGHING TO LINGER AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
END OF OUR FORECAST TOWARD MID WEEK. AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
COLD...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVERALL AND DURING THE DAY
EITHER MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN OR ALL LIGHT RAIN.

08


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WWAS
LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT...SO THE FRONT WILL ONLY INCH EASTWARD. KEPT THE
MENTION OF A FEW SHOWERS AT TOI UNTIL 01Z AND WILL WATCH RADAR FRO
THE PROGRESSION OF EXITING MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL
SLOWLY BRING AN END TO THE VFR CEILINGS AND GENERALLY HAVE THE
MOISTURE DROPPING OFF BEGINNING AFTER 04Z. TOI MAY SEE THESE
CLOUDS HANG AROUND LONGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS
SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST 5-10KTS TONIGHT...AROUND 11KTS
TOMORROW.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND IT. LOOK FOR RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     35  49  26  50  27 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    37  50  28  50  28 /  10   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  35  50  29  51  30 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  36  52  28  52  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      37  52  30  52  30 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      42  53  31  53  31 /  20  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  40  55  31  54  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        43  55  31  54  31 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 040017
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
617 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BEHIND THIS
AREA AS A LARGER AREA OF SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH A MUCH COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE
OVER ALABAMA. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER EAST OVER CONUS INCLUDING THE DEEP
SOUTH AND GULF COAST. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING SPREADS
FROM TEXAS AND ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL COOL AIR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY MONDAY...A FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY MONDAY AND BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IN THIS INSTANCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE THE PROPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TIME TO ALLOW FOR ANY
WARM OR VERY MOIST AIR TO INFILTRATE AHEAD OF TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT BUT WITH OVERALL A COOLER AIR MASS.
SOUNDINGS ARE DEFINITELY COOLER ALOFT IN THE PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION ZONE. SO...WILL HAVE SOME LOW QPF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND IT AT TIMES AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS ACROSS EASTERN
CONUS ALLOWING FOR THE TROUGHING TO LINGER AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
END OF OUR FORECAST TOWARD MID WEEK. AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
COLD...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVERALL AND DURING THE DAY
EITHER MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN OR ALL LIGHT RAIN.

08


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WWAS
LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT...SO THE FRONT WILL ONLY INCH EASTWARD. KEPT THE
MENTION OF A FEW SHOWERS AT TOI UNTIL 01Z AND WILL WATCH RADAR FRO
THE PROGRESSION OF EXITING MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL
SLOWLY BRING AN END TO THE VFR CEILINGS AND GENERALLY HAVE THE
MOISTURE DROPPING OFF BEGINNING AFTER 04Z. TOI MAY SEE THESE
CLOUDS HANG AROUND LONGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS
SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST 5-10KTS TONIGHT...AROUND 11KTS
TOMORROW.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND IT. LOOK FOR RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     35  49  26  50  27 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    37  50  28  50  28 /  10   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  35  50  29  51  30 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  36  52  28  52  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      37  52  30  52  30 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      42  53  31  53  31 /  20  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  40  55  31  54  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        43  55  31  54  31 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 032159
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
359 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BEHIND THIS
AREA AS A LARGER AREA OF SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH A MUCH COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE
OVER ALABAMA. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER EAST OVER CONUS INCLUDING THE DEEP
SOUTH AND GULF COAST. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING SPREADS
FROM TEXAS AND ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL COOL AIR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY MONDAY...A FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY MONDAY AND BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IN THIS INSTANCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE THE PROPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TIME TO ALLOW FOR ANY
WARM OR VERY MOIST AIR TO INFILTRATE AHEAD OF TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT BUT WITH OVERALL A COOLER AIR MASS.
SOUNDINGS ARE DEFINITELY COOLER ALOFT IN THE PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION ZONE. SO...WILL HAVE SOME LOW QPF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND IT AT TIMES AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS ACROSS EASTERN
CONUS ALLOWING FOR THE TROUGHING TO LINGER AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
END OF OUR FORECAST TOWARD MID WEEK. AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
COLD...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVERALL AND DURING THE DAY
EITHER MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN OR ALL LIGHT RAIN.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR MGM/TOI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT TOI
BEFORE THE RAIN EXITS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE W/NW
AROUND 5-7 KTS THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND IT. LOOK FOR RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     35  49  26  50  27 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    37  50  28  50  28 /  10   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  35  50  29  51  30 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  36  52  28  52  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      37  52  30  52  30 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      42  53  31  53  31 /  20  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  40  55  31  54  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        43  55  31  54  31 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/19





000
FXUS64 KBMX 032159
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
359 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BEHIND THIS
AREA AS A LARGER AREA OF SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH A MUCH COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE
OVER ALABAMA. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER EAST OVER CONUS INCLUDING THE DEEP
SOUTH AND GULF COAST. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING SPREADS
FROM TEXAS AND ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL COOL AIR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY MONDAY...A FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY MONDAY AND BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IN THIS INSTANCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE THE PROPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TIME TO ALLOW FOR ANY
WARM OR VERY MOIST AIR TO INFILTRATE AHEAD OF TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT BUT WITH OVERALL A COOLER AIR MASS.
SOUNDINGS ARE DEFINITELY COOLER ALOFT IN THE PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION ZONE. SO...WILL HAVE SOME LOW QPF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND IT AT TIMES AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS ACROSS EASTERN
CONUS ALLOWING FOR THE TROUGHING TO LINGER AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
END OF OUR FORECAST TOWARD MID WEEK. AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
COLD...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVERALL AND DURING THE DAY
EITHER MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN OR ALL LIGHT RAIN.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR MGM/TOI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT TOI
BEFORE THE RAIN EXITS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE W/NW
AROUND 5-7 KTS THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND IT. LOOK FOR RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     35  49  26  50  27 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    37  50  28  50  28 /  10   0   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  35  50  29  51  30 /  10   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  36  52  28  52  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      37  52  30  52  30 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      42  53  31  53  31 /  20  10   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  40  55  31  54  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
TROY        43  55  31  54  31 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/19




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