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000
FXUS64 KBMX 191048
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
448 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE SET UP HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH OVERALL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROCKIES EJECTING WEAK DISTURBANCES AND UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS MORNING THE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS GENERALLY ACROSS TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA WITH CLOUDINESS ACROSS ALABAMA BUT NO PRECIPITATION JUST
YET.

A LEE SIDE SURFACE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING...INTERACTING WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...THIS WILL BRING A
DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH VERY LOW
INSTABILITY...SO NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND WEAKEN. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN CHANCES (BEST CHANCES SOUTHEAST HALF) FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND HELPS TO NUDGE THE WEAKENED SURFACE
FEATURE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC AND USHER IN OUR NEXT
SURFACE FRONT AS WELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF/ALONG THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR GETS USHERED IN AS WELL...BUT EXPECTING
THIS TO BE MAINLY A LIGHT COLD RAIN AS THE SYSTEM EXITS AND THE
DRIER AIR COMES IN WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF
COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

IN THE FAR EXTENDED...THE PARADE OF UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUES AND
QUICKLY USHERS IN ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAIN HAS DISSIPATED WITH WAVE NUMBER ONE AS WE WAIT FOR THE RISE OF
WAVE NUMBER 2. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 12
HOURS. COULD BE A BRIEF AREA OF MVFR FOG FOR ANB AND ASN AS MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE VALLEY. BY 15Z WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SPRINKLES FOR TCL...MGM AND
TOI. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AT TOI AND MGM AFTER 15Z AND THEN
LIKELY RAIN AFTER 20 AND 21Z. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...LOOKS LIKE
THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z...BUT A STRAY
SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES NORTHEAST AND
SPREADS OUT. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AFTER BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z SATURDAY. WILL DETAIL THIS A TOUCH MORE WITH THE NEXT SET OF
TAFS AS WELL AS ENDING TIMES FOR THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  38  53  39  52 /  20  90  30  10  20
ANNISTON    51  40  54  41  52 /  30  90  50  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  50  40  55  41  54 /  30  90  30  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  51  40  56  41  55 /  60  90  40  10  20
CALERA      51  41  55  42  54 /  40 100  40  10  20
AUBURN      56  44  55  43  53 /  30  80  70  20  30
MONTGOMERY  57  45  58  45  56 /  60  90  60  20  30
TROY        58  45  57  45  55 /  60  80  60  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16






000
FXUS64 KBMX 191048
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
448 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE SET UP HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH OVERALL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROCKIES EJECTING WEAK DISTURBANCES AND UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS MORNING THE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS GENERALLY ACROSS TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA WITH CLOUDINESS ACROSS ALABAMA BUT NO PRECIPITATION JUST
YET.

A LEE SIDE SURFACE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING...INTERACTING WITH LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...THIS WILL BRING A
DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH VERY LOW
INSTABILITY...SO NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND WEAKEN. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN CHANCES (BEST CHANCES SOUTHEAST HALF) FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND HELPS TO NUDGE THE WEAKENED SURFACE
FEATURE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC AND USHER IN OUR NEXT
SURFACE FRONT AS WELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF/ALONG THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR GETS USHERED IN AS WELL...BUT EXPECTING
THIS TO BE MAINLY A LIGHT COLD RAIN AS THE SYSTEM EXITS AND THE
DRIER AIR COMES IN WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF
COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

IN THE FAR EXTENDED...THE PARADE OF UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUES AND
QUICKLY USHERS IN ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAIN HAS DISSIPATED WITH WAVE NUMBER ONE AS WE WAIT FOR THE RISE OF
WAVE NUMBER 2. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 12
HOURS. COULD BE A BRIEF AREA OF MVFR FOG FOR ANB AND ASN AS MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE VALLEY. BY 15Z WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SPRINKLES FOR TCL...MGM AND
TOI. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AT TOI AND MGM AFTER 15Z AND THEN
LIKELY RAIN AFTER 20 AND 21Z. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...LOOKS LIKE
THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z...BUT A STRAY
SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES NORTHEAST AND
SPREADS OUT. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AFTER BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z SATURDAY. WILL DETAIL THIS A TOUCH MORE WITH THE NEXT SET OF
TAFS AS WELL AS ENDING TIMES FOR THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     49  38  53  39  52 /  20  90  30  10  20
ANNISTON    51  40  54  41  52 /  30  90  50  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  50  40  55  41  54 /  30  90  30  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  51  40  56  41  55 /  60  90  40  10  20
CALERA      51  41  55  42  54 /  40 100  40  10  20
AUBURN      56  44  55  43  53 /  30  80  70  20  30
MONTGOMERY  57  45  58  45  56 /  60  90  60  20  30
TROY        58  45  57  45  55 /  60  80  60  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16







000
FXUS64 KBMX 190533
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1133 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AREA OF SPRINKLES JUST SOUTH OF SELMA AND MONTGOMERY HAS BEEN
DECREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE WITH THE
(MEASURABLE) RAIN FREE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUED INFLUX OF CLOUDINESS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES...MORE-SO WHERE THE CLOUDS WERE THINNEST OR LATE TO ARRIVE.
WILL MAKE THE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS...AND HAVE UPDATES OUT SOON.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAIN HAS DISSIPATED WITH WAVE NUMBER ONE AS WE WAIT FOR THE RISE OF
WAVE NUMBER 2. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 12
HOURS. COULD BE A BRIEF AREA OF MVFR FOG FOR ANB AND ASN AS MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE VALLEY. BY 15Z WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SPRINKLES FOR TCL...MGM AND
TOI. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AT TOI AND MGM AFTER 15Z AND THEN
LIKELY RAIN AFTER 20 AND 21Z. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...LOOKS LIKE
THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z...BUT A STRAY
SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES NORTHEAST AND
SPREADS OUT. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AFTER BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z SATURDAY. WILL DETAIL THIS A TOUCH MORE WITH THE NEXT SET OF
TAFS AS WELL AS ENDING TIMES FOR THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

16


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 190533
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1133 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AREA OF SPRINKLES JUST SOUTH OF SELMA AND MONTGOMERY HAS BEEN
DECREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE WITH THE
(MEASURABLE) RAIN FREE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUED INFLUX OF CLOUDINESS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES...MORE-SO WHERE THE CLOUDS WERE THINNEST OR LATE TO ARRIVE.
WILL MAKE THE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS...AND HAVE UPDATES OUT SOON.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAIN HAS DISSIPATED WITH WAVE NUMBER ONE AS WE WAIT FOR THE RISE OF
WAVE NUMBER 2. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 12
HOURS. COULD BE A BRIEF AREA OF MVFR FOG FOR ANB AND ASN AS MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE VALLEY. BY 15Z WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SPRINKLES FOR TCL...MGM AND
TOI. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AT TOI AND MGM AFTER 15Z AND THEN
LIKELY RAIN AFTER 20 AND 21Z. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...LOOKS LIKE
THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z...BUT A STRAY
SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES NORTHEAST AND
SPREADS OUT. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AFTER BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z SATURDAY. WILL DETAIL THIS A TOUCH MORE WITH THE NEXT SET OF
TAFS AS WELL AS ENDING TIMES FOR THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

16


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 190156
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
756 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AREA OF SPRINKLES JUST SOUTH OF SELMA AND MONTGOMERY HAS BEEN
DECREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE WITH THE
(MEASURABLE) RAIN FREE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUED INFLUX OF CLOUDINESS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES...MORE-SO WHERE THE CLOUDS WERE THINNEST OR LATE TO ARRIVE.
WILL MAKE THE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS...AND HAVE UPDATES OUT SOON.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DISTURBANCE NUMBER ONE IS NOW TO THE SW OF THE AREA AND WILL
REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BY 15Z
WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME
SPRINKLES FOR TCL...MGM AND TOI. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AT
TOI AND MGM AFTER 15Z AND THEN LIKELY RAIN AFTER 20 AND 21Z.
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z...BUT A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
21Z AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES NORTHEAST AND SPREADS OUT. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE AFTER AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO BE
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

16


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 190156
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
756 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AREA OF SPRINKLES JUST SOUTH OF SELMA AND MONTGOMERY HAS BEEN
DECREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE WITH THE
(MEASURABLE) RAIN FREE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUED INFLUX OF CLOUDINESS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES...MORE-SO WHERE THE CLOUDS WERE THINNEST OR LATE TO ARRIVE.
WILL MAKE THE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS...AND HAVE UPDATES OUT SOON.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DISTURBANCE NUMBER ONE IS NOW TO THE SW OF THE AREA AND WILL
REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BY 15Z
WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME
SPRINKLES FOR TCL...MGM AND TOI. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AT
TOI AND MGM AFTER 15Z AND THEN LIKELY RAIN AFTER 20 AND 21Z.
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z...BUT A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
21Z AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES NORTHEAST AND SPREADS OUT. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE AFTER AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO BE
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

16


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 190156
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
756 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AREA OF SPRINKLES JUST SOUTH OF SELMA AND MONTGOMERY HAS BEEN
DECREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE WITH THE
(MEASURABLE) RAIN FREE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUED INFLUX OF CLOUDINESS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES...MORE-SO WHERE THE CLOUDS WERE THINNEST OR LATE TO ARRIVE.
WILL MAKE THE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS...AND HAVE UPDATES OUT SOON.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DISTURBANCE NUMBER ONE IS NOW TO THE SW OF THE AREA AND WILL
REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BY 15Z
WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME
SPRINKLES FOR TCL...MGM AND TOI. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AT
TOI AND MGM AFTER 15Z AND THEN LIKELY RAIN AFTER 20 AND 21Z.
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z...BUT A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
21Z AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES NORTHEAST AND SPREADS OUT. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE AFTER AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO BE
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

16


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 190156
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
756 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AREA OF SPRINKLES JUST SOUTH OF SELMA AND MONTGOMERY HAS BEEN
DECREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE WITH THE
(MEASURABLE) RAIN FREE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUED INFLUX OF CLOUDINESS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES...MORE-SO WHERE THE CLOUDS WERE THINNEST OR LATE TO ARRIVE.
WILL MAKE THE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS...AND HAVE UPDATES OUT SOON.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DISTURBANCE NUMBER ONE IS NOW TO THE SW OF THE AREA AND WILL
REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BY 15Z
WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME
SPRINKLES FOR TCL...MGM AND TOI. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AT
TOI AND MGM AFTER 15Z AND THEN LIKELY RAIN AFTER 20 AND 21Z.
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z...BUT A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
21Z AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES NORTHEAST AND SPREADS OUT. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE AFTER AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO BE
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

16


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 182306
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
506 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND
EVEN BEYOND THE ESTABLISHED FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE SHORT TERM...A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE PUSHING OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT ANY POPS FOR TONIGHT BUT
MOISTURE WILL RETURN QUICKLY IN THE SOUTHWEST AS WE APPROACH THE
FRIDAY 12Z TIME.

THIS OCCURS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND SPINS UP A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAIN AS WE GET INTO THE FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD.
THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE LIFT DAMPENING OUT BY
SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AT THIS POINT LOOKS DRY.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH THE RETURN OF RAINFALL THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TIMING IS A LITTLE OFF WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IT APPEARS THE
BULK OF THE LIFT AND ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE DISPLACED EAST
OF OUR CWA.

FAST ON THE HEALS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY EVENT IS ANOTHER SYSTEM
THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAINFALL ON TUESDAY. THE DETAILS
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
SKETCHY IN BOTH TIMING AND COVERAGE. JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY PERIOD
IS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM TO KEEP AND EYE ON.

SO WITH 3 TO 4 SYSTEMS WITHIN THE NEXT 7 TO 9 DAYS AND WITH THE
APPROACH OF CHRISTMAS...ONE HAS TO WONDER ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR
SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME...NOTHING TO REALLY GET EXCITED ABOUT. EVEN
THOUGH THERE IS SOME COLD AIR NOT TOO FAR TO THE NORTH IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO GET PULLED DOWN TO INTERACT WITH ANY OF THE MOISTURE.
HIGHS AND LOWS THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE NOT TOO FAR FROM STATISTICAL
AVERAGES WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL KEEPING A LOT OF THE
READINGS FROM FLUCTUATING MUCH AT TIMES.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

DISTURBANCE NUMBER ONE IS NOW TO THE SW OF THE AREA AND WILL
REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BY 15Z
WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME
SPRINKLES FOR TCL...MGM AND TOI. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AT
TOI AND MGM AFTER 15Z AND THEN LIKELY RAIN AFTER 20 AND 21Z.
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z...BUT A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
21Z AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES NORTHEAST AND SPREADS OUT. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE AFTER AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO BE
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 182104
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
304 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND
EVEN BEYOND THE ESTABLISHED FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE SHORT TERM...A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE PUSHING OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT ANY POPS FOR TONIGHT BUT
MOISTURE WILL RETURN QUICKLY IN THE SOUTHWEST AS WE APPROACH THE
FRIDAY 12Z TIME.

THIS OCCURS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND SPINS UP A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAIN AS WE GET INTO THE FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD.
THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE LIFT DAMPENING OUT BY
SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AT THIS POINT LOOKS DRY.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH THE RETURN OF RAINFALL THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TIMING IS A LITTLE OFF WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IT APPEARS THE
BULK OF THE LIFT AND ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE DISPLACED EAST
OF OUR CWA.

FAST ON THE HEALS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY EVENT IS ANOTHER SYSTEM
THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAINFALL ON TUESDAY. THE DETAILS
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
SKETCHY IN BOTH TIMING AND COVERAGE. JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY PERIOD
IS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM TO KEEP AND EYE ON.

SO WITH 3 TO 4 SYSTEMS WITHIN THE NEXT 7 TO 9 DAYS AND WITH THE
APPROACH OF CHRISTMAS...ONE HAS TO WONDER ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR
SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME...NOTHING TO REALLY GET EXCITED ABOUT. EVEN
THOUGH THERE IS SOME COLD AIR NOT TOO FAR TO THE NORTH IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO GET PULLED DOWN TO INTERACT WITH ANY OF THE MOISTURE.
HIGHS AND LOWS THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE NOT TOO FAR FROM STATISTICAL
AVERAGES WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL KEEPING A LOT OF THE
READINGS FROM FLUCTUATING MUCH AT TIMES.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE FORECAST VFR AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL BE VARIABLE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT GENERALLY BETWEEN 050-080 NORTH
AND AROUND 100 SOUTH. SOME LOWERING TO AROUND 030 IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF DRY AIR REMAINS ON THE LOWER LEVELS AND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS...SOME LIGHT RETURNS WERE
SHOWING UP ON RADAR. DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP AT THE TERMINALS
BUT A SPRINKLE MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     34  51  41  50  40 /  10  30  90  60  20
ANNISTON    36  53  44  52  41 /  10  20  90  70  20
BIRMINGHAM  37  52  44  53  41 /  10  40  90  50  10
TUSCALOOSA  39  52  45  54  42 /  10  60  90  50  10
CALERA      39  53  45  54  42 /  10  40 100  50  20
AUBURN      41  56  47  55  43 /  10  30  80  80  20
MONTGOMERY  41  57  48  57  45 /  10  50  90  60  20
TROY        42  57  48  58  45 /  10  40  80  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 182104
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
304 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND
EVEN BEYOND THE ESTABLISHED FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE SHORT TERM...A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE PUSHING OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT ANY POPS FOR TONIGHT BUT
MOISTURE WILL RETURN QUICKLY IN THE SOUTHWEST AS WE APPROACH THE
FRIDAY 12Z TIME.

THIS OCCURS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND SPINS UP A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAIN AS WE GET INTO THE FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD.
THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE LIFT DAMPENING OUT BY
SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AT THIS POINT LOOKS DRY.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH THE RETURN OF RAINFALL THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TIMING IS A LITTLE OFF WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IT APPEARS THE
BULK OF THE LIFT AND ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE DISPLACED EAST
OF OUR CWA.

FAST ON THE HEALS OF THE SUNDAY/MONDAY EVENT IS ANOTHER SYSTEM
THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAINFALL ON TUESDAY. THE DETAILS
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
SKETCHY IN BOTH TIMING AND COVERAGE. JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY PERIOD
IS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM TO KEEP AND EYE ON.

SO WITH 3 TO 4 SYSTEMS WITHIN THE NEXT 7 TO 9 DAYS AND WITH THE
APPROACH OF CHRISTMAS...ONE HAS TO WONDER ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR
SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME...NOTHING TO REALLY GET EXCITED ABOUT. EVEN
THOUGH THERE IS SOME COLD AIR NOT TOO FAR TO THE NORTH IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO GET PULLED DOWN TO INTERACT WITH ANY OF THE MOISTURE.
HIGHS AND LOWS THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE NOT TOO FAR FROM STATISTICAL
AVERAGES WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL KEEPING A LOT OF THE
READINGS FROM FLUCTUATING MUCH AT TIMES.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE FORECAST VFR AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL BE VARIABLE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT GENERALLY BETWEEN 050-080 NORTH
AND AROUND 100 SOUTH. SOME LOWERING TO AROUND 030 IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF DRY AIR REMAINS ON THE LOWER LEVELS AND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS...SOME LIGHT RETURNS WERE
SHOWING UP ON RADAR. DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP AT THE TERMINALS
BUT A SPRINKLE MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY.

75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     34  51  41  50  40 /  10  30  90  60  20
ANNISTON    36  53  44  52  41 /  10  20  90  70  20
BIRMINGHAM  37  52  44  53  41 /  10  40  90  50  10
TUSCALOOSA  39  52  45  54  42 /  10  60  90  50  10
CALERA      39  53  45  54  42 /  10  40 100  50  20
AUBURN      41  56  47  55  43 /  10  30  80  80  20
MONTGOMERY  41  57  48  57  45 /  10  50  90  60  20
TROY        42  57  48  58  45 /  10  40  80  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 181814
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1214 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO APPRECIABLE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVE OVERHEAD. THIS
DISTURBANCE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS. A VERY DRY LOWER LAYER EXISTED ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING AND BELIEVE NOT MUCH MOISTURE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THEREFORE...THE CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP
AT TIMES AND REDEVELOP OR COVER THE AREA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN RAINFREE. THE TEMPERATURES NORTH WILL BE COOLER THAN THE
SOUTH DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND VERY LIGHT RAIN
MOVING IN...ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT RECEIVE MEASURABLE
RAIN.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE FORECAST VFR AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL BE VARIABLE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT GENERALLY BETWEEN 050-080 NORTH
AND AROUND 100 SOUTH. SOME LOWERING TO AROUND 030 IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF DRY AIR REMAINS ON THE LOWER LEVELS AND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS...SOME LIGHT RETURNS WERE
SHOWING UP ON RADAR. DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP AT THE TERMINALS
BUT A SPRINKLE MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 449 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

THIS MORNING...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TO THE GULF. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EJECTING WEAK DISTURBANCES AND UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST U.S.. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF
ALABAMA. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS THIS AM MAY SCRAPE OUR NORTHWEST
CWA COUNTIES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT TO THE
NORTH.

THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING IS HELPING TO DEVELOP A LEE SIDE SURFACE
SYSTEM WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S.. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY. WILL LEAVE IN A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE TIER OF COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH
HIGHLY POSITIVE LI`S/LITTLE CAPE/MEAGER TT/S THINK THE STRIKES
WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN IF THE LOW CONTINUES ON THE CURRENT
FORECASTED TRACK. COULD SEE ONE HALF TO AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH IN THE BETTER CELLS.

THE UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND WEAKEN. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
LOW POPS (BEST CHANCES SOUTHEAST HALF) FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND HELPS TO NUDGE THE SURFACE FEATURE
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC AND USHER IN OUR NEXT SURFACE
FRONT AS WELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF/ALONG THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR GETS USHERED IN AS WELL...BUT THERE IS
NORMALLY A FINE LINE BETWEEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR (ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING FROSTY THAT IS) AND
THEY NORMALLY ARE NOT QUITE IN TIME TOGETHER. SO ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD SEE A FLURRY OR
TWO MIXED IN WITH THE EXITING RAIN SHOWERS BUT MORE THAN LIKELY
JUST RAIN AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THE MORE IMPORTANT
THING IS THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS.

FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ALL MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED BEFORE
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  34  51  41  50 /  20  10  30  90  60
ANNISTON    53  36  53  44  52 /  20  10  20  90  70
BIRMINGHAM  51  37  52  44  53 /  20  10  40  90  50
TUSCALOOSA  53  39  52  45  54 /  20  10  60  90  50
CALERA      54  39  53  45  54 /  20  10  40 100  50
AUBURN      58  41  56  47  55 /   0  10  30  80  80
MONTGOMERY  61  41  57  48  57 /  10  10  50  90  60
TROY        61  42  57  48  58 /   0  10  40  80  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 181814
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1214 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NO APPRECIABLE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVE OVERHEAD. THIS
DISTURBANCE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS. A VERY DRY LOWER LAYER EXISTED ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING AND BELIEVE NOT MUCH MOISTURE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THEREFORE...THE CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP
AT TIMES AND REDEVELOP OR COVER THE AREA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN RAINFREE. THE TEMPERATURES NORTH WILL BE COOLER THAN THE
SOUTH DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND VERY LIGHT RAIN
MOVING IN...ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT RECEIVE MEASURABLE
RAIN.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE FORECAST VFR AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL BE VARIABLE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT GENERALLY BETWEEN 050-080 NORTH
AND AROUND 100 SOUTH. SOME LOWERING TO AROUND 030 IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF DRY AIR REMAINS ON THE LOWER LEVELS AND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS...SOME LIGHT RETURNS WERE
SHOWING UP ON RADAR. DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP AT THE TERMINALS
BUT A SPRINKLE MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 449 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

THIS MORNING...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TO THE GULF. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EJECTING WEAK DISTURBANCES AND UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST U.S.. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF
ALABAMA. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS THIS AM MAY SCRAPE OUR NORTHWEST
CWA COUNTIES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT TO THE
NORTH.

THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING IS HELPING TO DEVELOP A LEE SIDE SURFACE
SYSTEM WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S.. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY. WILL LEAVE IN A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE TIER OF COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH
HIGHLY POSITIVE LI`S/LITTLE CAPE/MEAGER TT/S THINK THE STRIKES
WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN IF THE LOW CONTINUES ON THE CURRENT
FORECASTED TRACK. COULD SEE ONE HALF TO AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH IN THE BETTER CELLS.

THE UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND WEAKEN. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
LOW POPS (BEST CHANCES SOUTHEAST HALF) FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND HELPS TO NUDGE THE SURFACE FEATURE
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC AND USHER IN OUR NEXT SURFACE
FRONT AS WELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF/ALONG THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR GETS USHERED IN AS WELL...BUT THERE IS
NORMALLY A FINE LINE BETWEEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR (ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING FROSTY THAT IS) AND
THEY NORMALLY ARE NOT QUITE IN TIME TOGETHER. SO ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD SEE A FLURRY OR
TWO MIXED IN WITH THE EXITING RAIN SHOWERS BUT MORE THAN LIKELY
JUST RAIN AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THE MORE IMPORTANT
THING IS THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS.

FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ALL MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED BEFORE
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  34  51  41  50 /  20  10  30  90  60
ANNISTON    53  36  53  44  52 /  20  10  20  90  70
BIRMINGHAM  51  37  52  44  53 /  20  10  40  90  50
TUSCALOOSA  53  39  52  45  54 /  20  10  60  90  50
CALERA      54  39  53  45  54 /  20  10  40 100  50
AUBURN      58  41  56  47  55 /   0  10  30  80  80
MONTGOMERY  61  41  57  48  57 /  10  10  50  90  60
TROY        61  42  57  48  58 /   0  10  40  80  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 181138
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
538 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TO THE GULF. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EJECTING WEAK DISTURBANCES AND UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST U.S.. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF
ALABAMA. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS THIS AM MAY SCRAPE OUR NORTHWEST
CWA COUNTIES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT TO THE
NORTH.

THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING IS HELPING TO DEVELOP A LEE SIDE SURFACE
SYSTEM WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S.. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY. WILL LEAVE IN A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE TIER OF COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH
HIGHLY POSITIVE LI`S/LITTLE CAPE/MEAGER TT/S THINK THE STRIKES
WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN IF THE LOW CONTINUES ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK. COULD SEE ONE HALF TO AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH IN THE BETTER CELLS.

THE UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND WEAKEN. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
LOW POPS (BEST CHANCES SOUTHEAST HALF) FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND HELPS TO NUDGE THE SURFACE FEATURE
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC AND USHER IN OUR NEXT SURFACE
FRONT AS WELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF/ALONG THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR GETS USHERED IN AS WELL...BUT THERE IS
NORMALLY A FINE LINE BETWEEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR (ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING FROSTY THAT IS) AND
THEY NORMALLY ARE NOT QUITE IN TIME TOGETHER. SO ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD SEE A FLURRY OR
TWO MIXED IN WITH THE EXITING RAIN SHOWERS BUT MORE THAN LIKELY
JUST RAIN AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THE MORE IMPORTANT
THING IS THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS.

FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ALL MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED BEFORE
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES
EASTWARD. THERE ARE LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS TN AND MS...AND
THESE WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS PORTIONS OF N AL TODAY. AT THIS
TIME...STILL EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN TO STAY NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  34  51  41  50 /  20  10  30  90  60
ANNISTON    54  36  53  44  52 /  10  10  20  90  70
BIRMINGHAM  52  37  52  44  53 /  20  10  40  90  50
TUSCALOOSA  53  39  52  45  54 /  20  10  60  90  50
CALERA      54  39  53  45  54 /  10  10  40 100  50
AUBURN      59  41  56  47  55 /   0  10  30  80  80
MONTGOMERY  60  41  57  48  57 /  10  10  50  90  60
TROY        61  42  57  48  58 /   0  10  40  80  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 181138
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
538 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TO THE GULF. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EJECTING WEAK DISTURBANCES AND UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST U.S.. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF
ALABAMA. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS THIS AM MAY SCRAPE OUR NORTHWEST
CWA COUNTIES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT TO THE
NORTH.

THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING IS HELPING TO DEVELOP A LEE SIDE SURFACE
SYSTEM WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S.. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY. WILL LEAVE IN A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE TIER OF COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH
HIGHLY POSITIVE LI`S/LITTLE CAPE/MEAGER TT/S THINK THE STRIKES
WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN IF THE LOW CONTINUES ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK. COULD SEE ONE HALF TO AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH IN THE BETTER CELLS.

THE UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND WEAKEN. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
LOW POPS (BEST CHANCES SOUTHEAST HALF) FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND HELPS TO NUDGE THE SURFACE FEATURE
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC AND USHER IN OUR NEXT SURFACE
FRONT AS WELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF/ALONG THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR GETS USHERED IN AS WELL...BUT THERE IS
NORMALLY A FINE LINE BETWEEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR (ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING FROSTY THAT IS) AND
THEY NORMALLY ARE NOT QUITE IN TIME TOGETHER. SO ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD SEE A FLURRY OR
TWO MIXED IN WITH THE EXITING RAIN SHOWERS BUT MORE THAN LIKELY
JUST RAIN AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THE MORE IMPORTANT
THING IS THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS.

FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ALL MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED BEFORE
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES
EASTWARD. THERE ARE LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS TN AND MS...AND
THESE WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS PORTIONS OF N AL TODAY. AT THIS
TIME...STILL EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN TO STAY NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  34  51  41  50 /  20  10  30  90  60
ANNISTON    54  36  53  44  52 /  10  10  20  90  70
BIRMINGHAM  52  37  52  44  53 /  20  10  40  90  50
TUSCALOOSA  53  39  52  45  54 /  20  10  60  90  50
CALERA      54  39  53  45  54 /  10  10  40 100  50
AUBURN      59  41  56  47  55 /   0  10  30  80  80
MONTGOMERY  60  41  57  48  57 /  10  10  50  90  60
TROY        61  42  57  48  58 /   0  10  40  80  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 181049
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
449 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TO THE GULF. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EJECTING WEAK DISTURBANCES AND UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST U.S.. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF
ALABAMA. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS THIS AM MAY SCRAPE OUR NORTHWEST
CWA COUNTIES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT TO THE
NORTH.

THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING IS HELPING TO DEVELOP A LEE SIDE SURFACE
SYSTEM WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S.. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY. WILL LEAVE IN A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE TIER OF COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH
HIGHLY POSITIVE LI`S/LITTLE CAPE/MEAGER TT/S THINK THE STRIKES
WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN IF THE LOW CONTINUES ON THE CURRENT
FORECASTED TRACK. COULD SEE ONE HALF TO AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH IN THE BETTER CELLS.

THE UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND WEAKEN. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
LOW POPS (BEST CHANCES SOUTHEAST HALF) FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND HELPS TO NUDGE THE SURFACE FEATURE
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC AND USHER IN OUR NEXT SURFACE
FRONT AS WELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF/ALONG THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR GETS USHERED IN AS WELL...BUT THERE IS
NORMALLY A FINE LINE BETWEEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR (ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING FROSTY THAT IS) AND
THEY NORMALLY ARE NOT QUITE IN TIME TOGETHER. SO ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD SEE A FLURRY OR
TWO MIXED IN WITH THE EXITING RAIN SHOWERS BUT MORE THAN LIKELY
JUST RAIN AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THE MORE IMPORTANT
THING IS THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS.

FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ALL MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED BEFORE
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF ALL SITES AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES
THROUGH. BEST CHANCES AT ANY TAF SITE SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
BE TCL BETWEEN 18 AND 22Z...BUT THINKING IS THAT EVEN THAT WOULD
LIGHT AND LIKELY NOT MEASURE...SO WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  34  51  41  50 /  20  10  30  90  60
ANNISTON    54  36  53  44  52 /  10  10  20  90  70
BIRMINGHAM  52  37  52  44  53 /  20  10  40  90  50
TUSCALOOSA  53  39  52  45  54 /  20  10  60  90  50
CALERA      54  39  53  45  54 /  10  10  40 100  50
AUBURN      59  41  56  47  55 /   0  10  30  80  80
MONTGOMERY  60  41  57  48  57 /  10  10  50  90  60
TROY        61  42  57  48  58 /   0  10  40  80  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16







000
FXUS64 KBMX 181049
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
449 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TO THE GULF. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EJECTING WEAK DISTURBANCES AND UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST U.S.. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF
ALABAMA. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS THIS AM MAY SCRAPE OUR NORTHWEST
CWA COUNTIES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT TO THE
NORTH.

THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING IS HELPING TO DEVELOP A LEE SIDE SURFACE
SYSTEM WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S.. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY. WILL LEAVE IN A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE TIER OF COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH
HIGHLY POSITIVE LI`S/LITTLE CAPE/MEAGER TT/S THINK THE STRIKES
WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN IF THE LOW CONTINUES ON THE CURRENT
FORECASTED TRACK. COULD SEE ONE HALF TO AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH IN THE BETTER CELLS.

THE UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND WEAKEN. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
LOW POPS (BEST CHANCES SOUTHEAST HALF) FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND HELPS TO NUDGE THE SURFACE FEATURE
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC AND USHER IN OUR NEXT SURFACE
FRONT AS WELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF/ALONG THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR GETS USHERED IN AS WELL...BUT THERE IS
NORMALLY A FINE LINE BETWEEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR (ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING FROSTY THAT IS) AND
THEY NORMALLY ARE NOT QUITE IN TIME TOGETHER. SO ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD SEE A FLURRY OR
TWO MIXED IN WITH THE EXITING RAIN SHOWERS BUT MORE THAN LIKELY
JUST RAIN AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THE MORE IMPORTANT
THING IS THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS.

FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ALL MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED BEFORE
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF ALL SITES AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES
THROUGH. BEST CHANCES AT ANY TAF SITE SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
BE TCL BETWEEN 18 AND 22Z...BUT THINKING IS THAT EVEN THAT WOULD
LIGHT AND LIKELY NOT MEASURE...SO WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  34  51  41  50 /  20  10  30  90  60
ANNISTON    54  36  53  44  52 /  10  10  20  90  70
BIRMINGHAM  52  37  52  44  53 /  20  10  40  90  50
TUSCALOOSA  53  39  52  45  54 /  20  10  60  90  50
CALERA      54  39  53  45  54 /  10  10  40 100  50
AUBURN      59  41  56  47  55 /   0  10  30  80  80
MONTGOMERY  60  41  57  48  57 /  10  10  50  90  60
TROY        61  42  57  48  58 /   0  10  40  80  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16






000
FXUS64 KBMX 181049
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
449 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TO THE GULF. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EJECTING WEAK DISTURBANCES AND UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST U.S.. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF
ALABAMA. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS THIS AM MAY SCRAPE OUR NORTHWEST
CWA COUNTIES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT TO THE
NORTH.

THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING IS HELPING TO DEVELOP A LEE SIDE SURFACE
SYSTEM WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S.. THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY. WILL LEAVE IN A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE TIER OF COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH
HIGHLY POSITIVE LI`S/LITTLE CAPE/MEAGER TT/S THINK THE STRIKES
WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN IF THE LOW CONTINUES ON THE CURRENT
FORECASTED TRACK. COULD SEE ONE HALF TO AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH IN THE BETTER CELLS.

THE UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND WEAKEN. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
LOW POPS (BEST CHANCES SOUTHEAST HALF) FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND HELPS TO NUDGE THE SURFACE FEATURE
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC AND USHER IN OUR NEXT SURFACE
FRONT AS WELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF/ALONG THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR GETS USHERED IN AS WELL...BUT THERE IS
NORMALLY A FINE LINE BETWEEN THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR (ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING FROSTY THAT IS) AND
THEY NORMALLY ARE NOT QUITE IN TIME TOGETHER. SO ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD SEE A FLURRY OR
TWO MIXED IN WITH THE EXITING RAIN SHOWERS BUT MORE THAN LIKELY
JUST RAIN AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THE MORE IMPORTANT
THING IS THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS.

FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ALL MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED BEFORE
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF ALL SITES AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES
THROUGH. BEST CHANCES AT ANY TAF SITE SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
BE TCL BETWEEN 18 AND 22Z...BUT THINKING IS THAT EVEN THAT WOULD
LIGHT AND LIKELY NOT MEASURE...SO WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  34  51  41  50 /  20  10  30  90  60
ANNISTON    54  36  53  44  52 /  10  10  20  90  70
BIRMINGHAM  52  37  52  44  53 /  20  10  40  90  50
TUSCALOOSA  53  39  52  45  54 /  20  10  60  90  50
CALERA      54  39  53  45  54 /  10  10  40 100  50
AUBURN      59  41  56  47  55 /   0  10  30  80  80
MONTGOMERY  60  41  57  48  57 /  10  10  50  90  60
TROY        61  42  57  48  58 /   0  10  40  80  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/16







000
FXUS64 KBMX 180518
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1118 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PLAN TO REMOVE THE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT LOOKING AT THE MODELS I DON`T REALLY SEE ANYTHING
THAT WOULD RESULT IN MEASURABLE RAIN. WILL ALSO RE-EXAMINE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY BE A CASE WHERE THE
LOWS OCCUR EARLY ON...AND TEMPS THEN BECOME FLAT OR RISE A FEW
DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE.

WILL HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS OUT SHORTLY AFTER THE TOP OF THE
HOUR.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF ALL SITES AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES
THROUGH. BEST CHANCES AT ANY TAF SITE SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
BE TCL BETWEEN 18 AND 22Z...BUT THINKING IS THAT EVEN THAT WOULD
LIGHT AND LIKELY NOT MEASURE...SO WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 180518
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1118 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PLAN TO REMOVE THE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT LOOKING AT THE MODELS I DON`T REALLY SEE ANYTHING
THAT WOULD RESULT IN MEASURABLE RAIN. WILL ALSO RE-EXAMINE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY BE A CASE WHERE THE
LOWS OCCUR EARLY ON...AND TEMPS THEN BECOME FLAT OR RISE A FEW
DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE.

WILL HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS OUT SHORTLY AFTER THE TOP OF THE
HOUR.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF ALL SITES AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES
THROUGH. BEST CHANCES AT ANY TAF SITE SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
BE TCL BETWEEN 18 AND 22Z...BUT THINKING IS THAT EVEN THAT WOULD
LIGHT AND LIKELY NOT MEASURE...SO WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 180251
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
851 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PLAN TO REMOVE THE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT LOOKING AT THE MODELS I DON`T REALLY SEE ANYTHING
THAT WOULD RESULT IN MEASURABLE RAIN. WILL ALSO RE-EXAMINE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY BE A CASE WHERE THE
LOWS OCCUR EARLY ON...AND TEMPS THEN BECOME FLAT OR RISE A FEW
DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE.

WILL HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS OUT SHORTLY AFTER THE TOP OF THE
HOUR.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS MID
LEVEL STRATUS MOVES IN AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

16


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBMX 180251
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
851 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PLAN TO REMOVE THE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT LOOKING AT THE MODELS I DON`T REALLY SEE ANYTHING
THAT WOULD RESULT IN MEASURABLE RAIN. WILL ALSO RE-EXAMINE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY BE A CASE WHERE THE
LOWS OCCUR EARLY ON...AND TEMPS THEN BECOME FLAT OR RISE A FEW
DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE.

WILL HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS OUT SHORTLY AFTER THE TOP OF THE
HOUR.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS MID
LEVEL STRATUS MOVES IN AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

16


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 172323
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
523 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ELONGATED WEST TO EAST UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE PLAINS AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO RE-ENFORCE THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE GULF. A SURFACE LOW IS
STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. LOCALLY...COLD AIR STRATUS IS
SLOWLY ERODING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES BEING HELD IN
THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN
CLEAR MOST OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE UPPER 50S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WILL TRACK
EASTWARD AND WASH OUT IN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD WEST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SPREAD
EAST TONIGHT...WITH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE
AREA. WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 0.30 INCHES...SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY
ACROSS THE WEST.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. A SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE GULF
COAST. RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE GULF. THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE BOTH
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD AS THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. RAIN
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
WILL STILL BE TO OUR WEST...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH COLD
ADVECTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY
TURN TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTH BY SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO VALUES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME NEXT WEEK. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL INCITE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW AND
TROUGH. GENERALLY...RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY AS A
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A VERY BRIEF WINDOW WITH A
FEW FLURRIES MIGHT MIX IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA AS COLD AIR ARRIVES. MANY DETAILS TO STILL WORK OUT WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS MID
LEVEL STRATUS MOVES IN AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 172323
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
523 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ELONGATED WEST TO EAST UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE PLAINS AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO RE-ENFORCE THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE GULF. A SURFACE LOW IS
STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. LOCALLY...COLD AIR STRATUS IS
SLOWLY ERODING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES BEING HELD IN
THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN
CLEAR MOST OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE UPPER 50S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WILL TRACK
EASTWARD AND WASH OUT IN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD WEST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SPREAD
EAST TONIGHT...WITH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE
AREA. WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 0.30 INCHES...SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY
ACROSS THE WEST.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. A SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE GULF
COAST. RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE GULF. THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE BOTH
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD AS THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. RAIN
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
WILL STILL BE TO OUR WEST...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH COLD
ADVECTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY
TURN TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTH BY SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO VALUES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME NEXT WEEK. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL INCITE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW AND
TROUGH. GENERALLY...RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY AS A
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A VERY BRIEF WINDOW WITH A
FEW FLURRIES MIGHT MIX IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA AS COLD AIR ARRIVES. MANY DETAILS TO STILL WORK OUT WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS MID
LEVEL STRATUS MOVES IN AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 172120
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
320 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ELONGATED WEST TO EAST UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE PLAINS AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO RE-ENFORCE THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE GULF. A SURFACE LOW IS
STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. LOCALLY...COLD AIR STRATUS IS
SLOWLY ERODING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES BEING HELD IN
THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN
CLEAR MOST OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE UPPER 50S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WILL TRACK
EASTWARD AND WASH OUT IN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD WEST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SPREAD
EAST TONIGHT...WITH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE
AREA. WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 0.30 INCHES...SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY
ACROSS THE WEST.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. A SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE GULF
COAST. RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE GULF. THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE BOTH
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD AS THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. RAIN
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
WILL STILL BE TO OUR WEST...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH COLD
ADVECTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY
TURN TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTH BY SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO VALUES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME NEXT WEEK. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL INCITE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW AND
TROUGH. GENERALLY...RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY AS A
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A VERY BRIEF WINDOW WITH A
FEW FLURRIES MIGHT MIX IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA AS COLD AIR ARRIVES. MANY DETAILS TO STILL WORK OUT WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES THROUGH MOST OR
ALL OF THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY ERODING BY 00Z. THEREAFTER...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS MID LEVEL
STRATUS MOVES IN AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     33  54  35  53  43 /  10  10  10  30  90
ANNISTON    35  56  38  55  45 /  10  10  10  30  90
BIRMINGHAM  36  54  40  53  46 /  10  10  10  50  90
TUSCALOOSA  37  53  39  53  47 /  10  20  20  60  90
CALERA      37  55  40  53  46 /  10  10  10  50  90
AUBURN      39  59  43  56  48 /   0  10  10  40  80
MONTGOMERY  37  62  42  57  49 /   0  10  10  50  80
TROY        38  62  42  57  49 /  10  10  10  40  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 172120
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
320 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ELONGATED WEST TO EAST UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE PLAINS AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO RE-ENFORCE THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE GULF. A SURFACE LOW IS
STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. LOCALLY...COLD AIR STRATUS IS
SLOWLY ERODING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES BEING HELD IN
THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN
CLEAR MOST OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE UPPER 50S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WILL TRACK
EASTWARD AND WASH OUT IN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD WEST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SPREAD
EAST TONIGHT...WITH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE
AREA. WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 0.30 INCHES...SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY
ACROSS THE WEST.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. A SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE GULF
COAST. RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE GULF. THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE BOTH
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD AS THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. RAIN
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
WILL STILL BE TO OUR WEST...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH COLD
ADVECTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY
TURN TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTH BY SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO VALUES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME NEXT WEEK. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL INCITE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT OF SURFACE LOW AND
TROUGH. GENERALLY...RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY AS A
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A VERY BRIEF WINDOW WITH A
FEW FLURRIES MIGHT MIX IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA AS COLD AIR ARRIVES. MANY DETAILS TO STILL WORK OUT WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES THROUGH MOST OR
ALL OF THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY ERODING BY 00Z. THEREAFTER...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS MID LEVEL
STRATUS MOVES IN AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     33  54  35  53  43 /  10  10  10  30  90
ANNISTON    35  56  38  55  45 /  10  10  10  30  90
BIRMINGHAM  36  54  40  53  46 /  10  10  10  50  90
TUSCALOOSA  37  53  39  53  47 /  10  20  20  60  90
CALERA      37  55  40  53  46 /  10  10  10  50  90
AUBURN      39  59  43  56  48 /   0  10  10  40  80
MONTGOMERY  37  62  42  57  49 /   0  10  10  50  80
TROY        38  62  42  57  49 /  10  10  10  40  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 171718
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1118 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LOW STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING. A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE IS TRAPPED
BENEATH A SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ABOVE 900MB...WITH BACKING
WINDS INDICATING COLD ADVECTION BENEATH THE INVERSION. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THOSE AREAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES THROUGH MOST OR
ALL OF THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY ERODING BY 00Z. THEREAFTER...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS MID LEVEL
STRATUS MOVES IN AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 337 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE OF AREAS OF
INTEREST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND 24 HR AGO HAS NOW PROGRESSED INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THERE IS WEAK RIDGING JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA ABOUT 24 HRS AGO IS NOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. FURTHER TO THE WEST...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM HAS LEAD TO CLOUD COVER EARLY TODAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RETREAT
TO THE NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FOR TODAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL
MOVE IN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. MOST PLACES WILL HAVE AMPLE INSOLATION WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERNIGHT...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE
REMAINS RATHER LIMITED WITH PW VALUES STILL BELOW 0.75 INCHES. IN
ADDITION...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND DUE TO THIS...WENT AHEAD AND
REMOVED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION FOR TONIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH PW
VALUES CONTINUING TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...CONTINUED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND PIVOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE TEXAS
GULF COAST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL HELP TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY. THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GEM...ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME TO A MUCH
BETTER CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 48 HRS. THE MODELS ALL INDICATE A
WEAK LOW TRACKING ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1 INCH LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY. SINCE MODELS HAVE COME IN TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...WENT
AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO 80-90 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. DUE TO THE
FURTHER SOUTHERN TRACK...WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER EVEN FURTHER SOUTH TO ONLY THE SOUTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES. DUE TO THE WEAKER LOW AND TRACK...DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE WEAKER FLOW STRUGGLING TO BRING
IN THE HIGH THETA E AIR. THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY
AND EXPECT RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS
RATHER WEAK AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ABANDON THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK.
THIS LINGERING BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY IN THE
WEEK AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A MORE
ROBUST TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON
TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH A BIT DIFFERENT WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM BUT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
BOTH MODELS BEHIND THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM IS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE.
FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE WOULD COOL ENOUGH FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 171718
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1118 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LOW STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING. A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE IS TRAPPED
BENEATH A SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ABOVE 900MB...WITH BACKING
WINDS INDICATING COLD ADVECTION BENEATH THE INVERSION. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THOSE AREAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES THROUGH MOST OR
ALL OF THE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY ERODING BY 00Z. THEREAFTER...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS MID LEVEL
STRATUS MOVES IN AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 337 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE OF AREAS OF
INTEREST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND 24 HR AGO HAS NOW PROGRESSED INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THERE IS WEAK RIDGING JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA ABOUT 24 HRS AGO IS NOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. FURTHER TO THE WEST...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM HAS LEAD TO CLOUD COVER EARLY TODAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RETREAT
TO THE NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FOR TODAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL
MOVE IN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. MOST PLACES WILL HAVE AMPLE INSOLATION WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERNIGHT...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE
REMAINS RATHER LIMITED WITH PW VALUES STILL BELOW 0.75 INCHES. IN
ADDITION...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND DUE TO THIS...WENT AHEAD AND
REMOVED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION FOR TONIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH PW
VALUES CONTINUING TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...CONTINUED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND PIVOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE TEXAS
GULF COAST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL HELP TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY. THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GEM...ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME TO A MUCH
BETTER CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 48 HRS. THE MODELS ALL INDICATE A
WEAK LOW TRACKING ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1 INCH LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY. SINCE MODELS HAVE COME IN TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...WENT
AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO 80-90 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. DUE TO THE
FURTHER SOUTHERN TRACK...WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER EVEN FURTHER SOUTH TO ONLY THE SOUTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES. DUE TO THE WEAKER LOW AND TRACK...DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE WEAKER FLOW STRUGGLING TO BRING
IN THE HIGH THETA E AIR. THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY
AND EXPECT RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS
RATHER WEAK AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ABANDON THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK.
THIS LINGERING BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY IN THE
WEEK AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A MORE
ROBUST TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON
TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH A BIT DIFFERENT WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM BUT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
BOTH MODELS BEHIND THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM IS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE.
FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE WOULD COOL ENOUGH FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 171544
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
944 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LOW STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING. A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE IS TRAPPED
BENEATH A SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ABOVE 900MB...WITH BACKING
WINDS INDICATING COLD ADVECTION BENEATH THE INVERSION. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THOSE AREAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TERMINALS VIA WRAP AROUND STRATUS
CIRCLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF ALABAMA SHOULD LAST THROUGH
AROUND 15-16Z WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER THAT EXCEPT FOR A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS. MORE EXTENSIVE CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
TONIGHT.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 337 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE OF AREAS OF
INTEREST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND 24 HR AGO HAS NOW PROGRESSED INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THERE IS WEAK RIDGING JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA ABOUT 24 HRS AGO IS NOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. FURTHER TO THE WEST...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM HAS LEAD TO CLOUD COVER EARLY
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
RETREAT TO THE NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FOR TODAY...WEAK
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. MOST PLACES WILL HAVE AMPLE INSOLATION WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERNIGHT...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE
REMAINS RATHER LIMITED WITH PW VALUES STILL BELOW 0.75 INCHES. IN
ADDITION...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND DUE TO THIS...WENT AHEAD AND
REMOVED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION FOR TONIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH PW
VALUES CONTINUING TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...CONTINUED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND PIVOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE TEXAS
GULF COAST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL HELP TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY. THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GEM...ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME TO A MUCH
BETTER CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 48 HRS. THE MODELS ALL INDICATE A
WEAK LOW TRACKING ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1 INCH LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY. SINCE MODELS HAVE COME IN TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...WENT
AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO 80-90 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. DUE TO THE
FURTHER SOUTHERN TRACK...WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER EVEN FURTHER SOUTH TO ONLY THE SOUTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES. DUE TO THE WEAKER LOW AND TRACK...DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE WEAKER FLOW STRUGGLING TO BRING
IN THE HIGH THETA E AIR. THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY
AND EXPECT RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS
RATHER WEAK AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ABANDON THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK.
THIS LINGERING BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY IN THE
WEEK AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A MORE
ROBUST TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON
TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH A BIT DIFFERENT WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM BUT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
BOTH MODELS BEHIND THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM IS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE.
FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE WOULD COOL ENOUGH FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  33  54  35  53 /   0  10  10  10  30
ANNISTON    51  35  56  38  55 /   0  10  10  10  40
BIRMINGHAM  50  36  54  40  53 /   0  10  10  10  60
TUSCALOOSA  53  37  53  39  53 /   0  10  20  20  70
CALERA      52  37  55  40  53 /   0   0  10  10  60
AUBURN      58  39  59  43  56 /   0   0  10  10  40
MONTGOMERY  61  37  62  42  57 /   0   0  10  10  40
TROY        61  38  62  42  57 /   0   0  10  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 171544
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
944 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LOW STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING. A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE IS TRAPPED
BENEATH A SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ABOVE 900MB...WITH BACKING
WINDS INDICATING COLD ADVECTION BENEATH THE INVERSION. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THOSE AREAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TERMINALS VIA WRAP AROUND STRATUS
CIRCLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF ALABAMA SHOULD LAST THROUGH
AROUND 15-16Z WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER THAT EXCEPT FOR A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS. MORE EXTENSIVE CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
TONIGHT.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 337 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE OF AREAS OF
INTEREST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND 24 HR AGO HAS NOW PROGRESSED INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THERE IS WEAK RIDGING JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA ABOUT 24 HRS AGO IS NOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. FURTHER TO THE WEST...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM HAS LEAD TO CLOUD COVER EARLY
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
RETREAT TO THE NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FOR TODAY...WEAK
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. MOST PLACES WILL HAVE AMPLE INSOLATION WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERNIGHT...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE
REMAINS RATHER LIMITED WITH PW VALUES STILL BELOW 0.75 INCHES. IN
ADDITION...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND DUE TO THIS...WENT AHEAD AND
REMOVED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION FOR TONIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH PW
VALUES CONTINUING TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...CONTINUED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND PIVOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE TEXAS
GULF COAST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL HELP TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY. THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GEM...ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME TO A MUCH
BETTER CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 48 HRS. THE MODELS ALL INDICATE A
WEAK LOW TRACKING ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1 INCH LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY. SINCE MODELS HAVE COME IN TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...WENT
AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO 80-90 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. DUE TO THE
FURTHER SOUTHERN TRACK...WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER EVEN FURTHER SOUTH TO ONLY THE SOUTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES. DUE TO THE WEAKER LOW AND TRACK...DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE WEAKER FLOW STRUGGLING TO BRING
IN THE HIGH THETA E AIR. THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY
AND EXPECT RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS
RATHER WEAK AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ABANDON THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK.
THIS LINGERING BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY IN THE
WEEK AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A MORE
ROBUST TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON
TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH A BIT DIFFERENT WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM BUT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
BOTH MODELS BEHIND THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM IS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE.
FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE WOULD COOL ENOUGH FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     48  33  54  35  53 /   0  10  10  10  30
ANNISTON    51  35  56  38  55 /   0  10  10  10  40
BIRMINGHAM  50  36  54  40  53 /   0  10  10  10  60
TUSCALOOSA  53  37  53  39  53 /   0  10  20  20  70
CALERA      52  37  55  40  53 /   0   0  10  10  60
AUBURN      58  39  59  43  56 /   0   0  10  10  40
MONTGOMERY  61  37  62  42  57 /   0   0  10  10  40
TROY        61  38  62  42  57 /   0   0  10  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 171220 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE OF AREAS OF INTEREST.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
24 HR AGO HAS NOW PROGRESSED INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THERE IS WEAK
RIDGING JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ABOUT 24 HRS
AGO IS NOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. FURTHER TO THE WEST...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM HAS LEAD
TO CLOUD COVER EARLY TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FOR
TODAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE IN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. MOST PLACES WILL HAVE AMPLE
INSOLATION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER LIMITED WITH PW VALUES STILL BELOW 0.75
INCHES. IN ADDITION...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND DUE TO THIS...WENT AHEAD AND
REMOVED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION FOR TONIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH PW VALUES
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND PIVOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE
ALONG THE NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL HELP TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF
THE GEM...ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME TO A MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY OVER
THE LAST 48 HRS. THE MODELS ALL INDICATE A WEAK LOW TRACKING ALONG
THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO OVER 1 INCH LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. SINCE MODELS HAVE
COME IN TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO
80-90 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. DUE TO THE FURTHER SOUTHERN TRACK...WENT AHEAD AND
REDUCED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER EVEN FURTHER SOUTH TO ONLY THE
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. DUE TO THE WEAKER LOW AND TRACK...DO NOT
EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE WEAKER FLOW
STRUGGLING TO BRING IN THE HIGH THETA E AIR. THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY AND EXPECT RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS RATHER WEAK AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ABANDON
THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS
LINGERING BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY IN THE WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A MORE ROBUST TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE BOTH A BIT DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM BUT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON BOTH MODELS BEHIND THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM IS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE MOISTURE
WILL EXIT THE AREA BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD COOL ENOUGH FOR ANY
FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TERMINALS VIA WRAP AROUND STRATUS
CIRCLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF ALABAMA SHOULD LAST THROUGH
AROUND 15-16Z WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER THAT EXCEPT FOR A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS. MORE EXTENSIVE CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
TONIGHT.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  33  54  35  53 /   0  10  10  10  30
ANNISTON    55  35  56  38  55 /   0  10  10  10  40
BIRMINGHAM  52  36  54  40  53 /   0  10  10  10  60
TUSCALOOSA  55  37  53  39  53 /   0  10  20  20  70
CALERA      54  37  55  40  53 /   0   0  10  10  60
AUBURN      57  39  59  43  56 /   0   0  10  10  40
MONTGOMERY  59  37  62  42  57 /   0   0  10  10  40
TROY        59  38  62  42  57 /   0   0  10  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/08







000
FXUS64 KBMX 171220 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE OF AREAS OF INTEREST.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
24 HR AGO HAS NOW PROGRESSED INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THERE IS WEAK
RIDGING JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ABOUT 24 HRS
AGO IS NOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. FURTHER TO THE WEST...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM HAS LEAD
TO CLOUD COVER EARLY TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FOR
TODAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE IN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. MOST PLACES WILL HAVE AMPLE
INSOLATION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER LIMITED WITH PW VALUES STILL BELOW 0.75
INCHES. IN ADDITION...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND DUE TO THIS...WENT AHEAD AND
REMOVED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION FOR TONIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH PW VALUES
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND PIVOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE
ALONG THE NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL HELP TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF
THE GEM...ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME TO A MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY OVER
THE LAST 48 HRS. THE MODELS ALL INDICATE A WEAK LOW TRACKING ALONG
THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO OVER 1 INCH LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. SINCE MODELS HAVE
COME IN TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO
80-90 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. DUE TO THE FURTHER SOUTHERN TRACK...WENT AHEAD AND
REDUCED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER EVEN FURTHER SOUTH TO ONLY THE
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. DUE TO THE WEAKER LOW AND TRACK...DO NOT
EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE WEAKER FLOW
STRUGGLING TO BRING IN THE HIGH THETA E AIR. THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY AND EXPECT RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS RATHER WEAK AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ABANDON
THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS
LINGERING BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY IN THE WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A MORE ROBUST TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE BOTH A BIT DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM BUT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON BOTH MODELS BEHIND THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM IS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE MOISTURE
WILL EXIT THE AREA BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD COOL ENOUGH FOR ANY
FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TERMINALS VIA WRAP AROUND STRATUS
CIRCLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF ALABAMA SHOULD LAST THROUGH
AROUND 15-16Z WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER THAT EXCEPT FOR A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS. MORE EXTENSIVE CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
TONIGHT.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  33  54  35  53 /   0  10  10  10  30
ANNISTON    55  35  56  38  55 /   0  10  10  10  40
BIRMINGHAM  52  36  54  40  53 /   0  10  10  10  60
TUSCALOOSA  55  37  53  39  53 /   0  10  20  20  70
CALERA      54  37  55  40  53 /   0   0  10  10  60
AUBURN      57  39  59  43  56 /   0   0  10  10  40
MONTGOMERY  59  37  62  42  57 /   0   0  10  10  40
TROY        59  38  62  42  57 /   0   0  10  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/08






000
FXUS64 KBMX 170937
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
337 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE OF AREAS OF INTEREST.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
24 HR AGO HAS NOW PROGRESSED INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THERE IS WEAK
RIDGING JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ABOUT 24 HRS
AGO IS NOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. FURTHER TO THE WEST...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM HAS LEAD
TO CLOUD COVER EARLY TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FOR
TODAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE IN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. MOST PLACES WILL HAVE AMPLE
INSOLATION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER LIMITED WITH PW VALUES STILL BELOW 0.75
INCHES. IN ADDITION...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND DUE TO THIS...WENT AHEAD AND
REMOVED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION FOR TONIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH PW VALUES
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND PIVOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE
ALONG THE NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL HELP TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF
THE GEM...ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME TO A MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY OVER
THE LAST 48 HRS. THE MODELS ALL INDICATE A WEAK LOW TRACKING ALONG
THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO OVER 1 INCH LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. SINCE MODELS HAVE
COME IN TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO
80-90 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. DUE TO THE FURTHER SOUTHERN TRACK...WENT AHEAD AND
REDUCED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER EVEN FURTHER SOUTH TO ONLY THE
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. DUE TO THE WEAKER LOW AND TRACK...DO NOT
EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE WEAKER FLOW
STRUGGLING TO BRING IN THE HIGH THETA E AIR. THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY AND EXPECT RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS RATHER WEAK AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ABANDON
THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS
LINGERING BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY IN THE WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A MORE ROBUST TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE BOTH A BIT DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM BUT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON BOTH MODELS BEHIND THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM IS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE MOISTURE
WILL EXIT THE AREA BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD COOL ENOUGH FOR ANY
FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STRATUS DECK NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AS OF
ISSUANCE TIME. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WORK INTO ANB...ASN...AND BHM
AROUND 8 TO 9Z AND THEN TCL AND EET BY 11Z. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 FEET...BUT COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO AROUND 1500
FEET. CLEARING AFTER 15Z. TCL WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD
DECK...BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRACKING IT WILL AT LEAST WORK INTO THE
AREA FOR A FEW HOURS CLOSE TO 12Z. OTHERWISE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR BR/FG AT TOI AND MGM BUT THINKING THAT BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM BOTH AT VFR FOR THE NIGHT.

16


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  33  54  35  53 /   0  10  10  10  30
ANNISTON    55  35  56  38  55 /   0  10  10  10  40
BIRMINGHAM  52  36  54  40  53 /   0  10  10  10  60
TUSCALOOSA  55  37  53  39  53 /   0  10  20  20  70
CALERA      54  37  55  40  53 /   0   0  10  10  60
AUBURN      57  39  59  43  56 /   0   0  10  10  40
MONTGOMERY  59  37  62  42  57 /   0   0  10  10  40
TROY        59  38  62  42  57 /   0   0  10  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 170937
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
337 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE OF AREAS OF INTEREST.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
24 HR AGO HAS NOW PROGRESSED INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THERE IS WEAK
RIDGING JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ABOUT 24 HRS
AGO IS NOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. FURTHER TO THE WEST...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM HAS LEAD
TO CLOUD COVER EARLY TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. FOR
TODAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE IN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THIS
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. MOST PLACES WILL HAVE AMPLE
INSOLATION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER LIMITED WITH PW VALUES STILL BELOW 0.75
INCHES. IN ADDITION...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND DUE TO THIS...WENT AHEAD AND
REMOVED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION FOR TONIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH PW VALUES
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND PIVOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE
ALONG THE NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL HELP TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF
THE GEM...ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME TO A MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY OVER
THE LAST 48 HRS. THE MODELS ALL INDICATE A WEAK LOW TRACKING ALONG
THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO OVER 1 INCH LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. SINCE MODELS HAVE
COME IN TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO
80-90 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. DUE TO THE FURTHER SOUTHERN TRACK...WENT AHEAD AND
REDUCED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER EVEN FURTHER SOUTH TO ONLY THE
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. DUE TO THE WEAKER LOW AND TRACK...DO NOT
EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE WEAKER FLOW
STRUGGLING TO BRING IN THE HIGH THETA E AIR. THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY AND EXPECT RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS RATHER WEAK AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ABANDON
THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS
LINGERING BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY IN THE WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A MORE ROBUST TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE BOTH A BIT DIFFERENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM BUT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON BOTH MODELS BEHIND THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM IS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE MOISTURE
WILL EXIT THE AREA BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD COOL ENOUGH FOR ANY
FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STRATUS DECK NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AS OF
ISSUANCE TIME. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WORK INTO ANB...ASN...AND BHM
AROUND 8 TO 9Z AND THEN TCL AND EET BY 11Z. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 FEET...BUT COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO AROUND 1500
FEET. CLEARING AFTER 15Z. TCL WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD
DECK...BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRACKING IT WILL AT LEAST WORK INTO THE
AREA FOR A FEW HOURS CLOSE TO 12Z. OTHERWISE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR BR/FG AT TOI AND MGM BUT THINKING THAT BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM BOTH AT VFR FOR THE NIGHT.

16


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     51  33  54  35  53 /   0  10  10  10  30
ANNISTON    55  35  56  38  55 /   0  10  10  10  40
BIRMINGHAM  52  36  54  40  53 /   0  10  10  10  60
TUSCALOOSA  55  37  53  39  53 /   0  10  20  20  70
CALERA      54  37  55  40  53 /   0   0  10  10  60
AUBURN      57  39  59  43  56 /   0   0  10  10  40
MONTGOMERY  59  37  62  42  57 /   0   0  10  10  40
TROY        59  38  62  42  57 /   0   0  10  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 170522
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1122 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AREA OF CLOUDS SKIRTING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE A BIT
PROBLEMATIC FOR THAT AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE
SOUTH OF I-20. OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF
OVERCAST AS LOBES OF CLOUDS SWING THROUGH...BUT MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
WILL MAKE A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...BUT
NOTHING MAJOR.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STRATUS DECK NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AS OF
ISSUANCE TIME. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WORK INTO ANB...ASN...AND BHM
AROUND 8 TO 9Z AND THEN TCL AND EET BY 11Z. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 FEET...BUT COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO AROUND 1500
FEET. CLEARING AFTER 15Z. TCL WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD
DECK...BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRACKING IT WILL AT LEAST WORK INTO THE
AREA FOR A FEW HOURS CLOSE TO 12Z. OTHERWISE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR BR/FG AT TOI AND MGM BUT THINKING THAT BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM BOTH AT VFR FOR THE NIGHT.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 170522
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1122 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AREA OF CLOUDS SKIRTING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE A BIT
PROBLEMATIC FOR THAT AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE
SOUTH OF I-20. OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF
OVERCAST AS LOBES OF CLOUDS SWING THROUGH...BUT MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
WILL MAKE A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...BUT
NOTHING MAJOR.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STRATUS DECK NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AS OF
ISSUANCE TIME. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WORK INTO ANB...ASN...AND BHM
AROUND 8 TO 9Z AND THEN TCL AND EET BY 11Z. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 FEET...BUT COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO AROUND 1500
FEET. CLEARING AFTER 15Z. TCL WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD
DECK...BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRACKING IT WILL AT LEAST WORK INTO THE
AREA FOR A FEW HOURS CLOSE TO 12Z. OTHERWISE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR BR/FG AT TOI AND MGM BUT THINKING THAT BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM BOTH AT VFR FOR THE NIGHT.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 170223
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
823 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AREA OF CLOUDS SKIRTING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE A BIT
PROBLEMATIC FOR THAT AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE
SOUTH OF I-20. OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF
OVERCAST AS LOBES OF CLOUDS SWING THROUGH...BUT MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
WILL MAKE A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...BUT
NOTHING MAJOR.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STRATUS DECK BEGINNING TO DROP BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AGAIN
THIS EVENING. ORIGINALLY WAS GOING TO BRING THE LOW MVFR DECK INTO
ANB AFTER 12Z...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A TOUCH EARLIER THAT.
WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF ANY ADJUSTMENT WILL BE NEEDED. OTHER VFR
FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS AT MOST LOCATIONS THEN MVFR/VFR MOVING IN
AFTER 6Z FOR BHM AND ANB. MAY MAKE IT TO TCL AND EET BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR BR/FG AT TOI
AND MGM BUT THINKING THAT BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO KEEP THEM BOTH AT VFR FOR THE NIGHT.

16


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 162343
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
543 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CENTRAL ALABAMA IS NOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE EXITING COLD
FRONT...WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
PULLING OFF TO THE EAST...AND CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS
ERODING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO EXPAND BACK TO THE SOUTH...GENERALLY TO THE I-20
CORRIDOR. CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL PREVENT IDEAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...EXPECT LOW TO MID
30S AREAWIDE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WEAK COOL
TO NEUTRAL ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO VALUES
WEDNESDAY.

A SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY...AND
WASH OUT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE AND CONVERGENT FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. PW VALUES WILL BE BELOW 1 INCH...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
QPF. AS THIS FEATURE WASHES OUT TO OUR NORTH...SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG ANY LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES ON THURSDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS ON THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TEXAS GULF
COAST...WHICH TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
BACK TO CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SEEING
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE
PROMINENT CLUSTERING OF A WEAKER SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST
WITHIN MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL RUNS. TIMING IS ALSO
COMING TOGETHER WITH RAINFALL RETURNING TO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND QPF CURRENTLY EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. RAINFALL WILL END SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING AIRMASS RECOVERY AND HOW MUCH WARM UNSTABLE AIR IS
ADVECTED NORTHWARD. OVERALL WIND FIELDS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER...SO
DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF WARM GULF AIR INTO THE AREA.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WARMER PROFILES...AND SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF
THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO
APPEAR UNLIKELY WITH THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM...DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR CLIMO.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STRATUS DECK BEGINNING TO DROP BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AGAIN
THIS EVENING. ORIGINALLY WAS GOING TO BRING THE LOW MVFR DECK INTO
ANB AFTER 12Z...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A TOUCH EARLIER THAT.
WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF ANY ADJUSTMENT WILL BE NEEDED. OTHER VFR
FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS AT MOST LOCATIONS THEN MVFR/VFR MOVING IN
AFTER 6Z FOR BHM AND ANB. MAY MAKE IT TO TCL AND EET BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR BR/FG AT TOI
AND MGM BUT THINKING THAT BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO KEEP THEM BOTH AT VFR FOR THE NIGHT.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KBMX 162106
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
306 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CENTRAL ALABAMA IS NOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE EXITING COLD
FRONT...WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
PULLING OFF TO THE EAST...AND CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS
ERODING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO EXPAND BACK TO THE SOUTH...GENERALLY TO THE I-20
CORRIDOR. CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL PREVENT IDEAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...EXPECT LOW TO MID
30S AREAWIDE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WEAK COOL
TO NEUTRAL ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO VALUES
WEDNESDAY.

A SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY...AND
WASH OUT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE AND CONVERGENT FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. PW VALUES WILL BE BELOW 1 INCH...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
QPF. AS THIS FEATURE WASHES OUT TO OUR NORTH...SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG ANY LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES ON THURSDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS ON THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TEXAS GULF
COAST...WHICH TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
BACK TO CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SEEING
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE
PROMINENT CLUSTERING OF A WEAKER SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST
WITHIN MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL RUNS. TIMING IS ALSO
COMING TOGETHER WITH RAINFALL RETURNING TO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND QPF CURRENTLY EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. RAINFALL WILL END SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING AIRMASS RECOVERY AND HOW MUCH WARM UNSTABLE AIR IS
ADVECTED NORTHWARD. OVERALL WIND FIELDS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER...SO
DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF WARM GULF AIR INTO THE AREA.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WARMER PROFILES...AND SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF
THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO
APPEAR UNLIKELY WITH THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM...DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR CLIMO.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ASIDE FROM SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AT 3000-3500 FEET
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUD-FREE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     32  51  32  55  34 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANNISTON    34  56  35  57  38 /   0   0  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  35  53  36  55  39 /   0   0  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  35  55  36  54  38 /   0   0  10  20  20
CALERA      35  55  36  56  39 /   0   0  10  10  10
AUBURN      38  57  39  59  42 /   0   0  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  34  60  37  62  41 /   0   0  10  10  10
TROY        36  60  38  62  40 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 161735
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1135 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING.
DESPITE BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...NOT MUCH COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW
CLIMO VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL CURB WARMING SOMEWHAT...AND EXPECT
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ASIDE FROM SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AT 3000-3500 FEET
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUD-FREE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 327 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BEGIN TO
DROP ACROSS THE WEST WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. SHOWERS SHOULD
COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 15Z. MOST OF THE AREA
WILL HAVE PLENTY OF INSOLATION TODAY TO OVERCOME THE WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...WRAP AROUND CLOUDS LOOK TO MOVE
IN ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING A HARD TIME
MAKING IT OUT OF THE LOW 50S. FURTHER SOUTH WITH INSOLATION...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS PROGRESS AND FURTHER UPDATES TO TEMPERATURES
AND CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ZONAL LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH ONLY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD
LEAD  TO TEMPERATURES TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LEAD TO SOME LIFT ACROSS THE AREA BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED
WITH PW VALUES GENERALLY UNDER 0.75 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY A CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WILL BE.

ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST  AND PIVOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE TEXAS
GULF COAST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL HELP TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY. THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GEM...ECMWF AND GFS STILL DIFFER BUT ARE
BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARDS A CONSENSUS. THE GEM STILL FAVORS A
SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE LOW JUST OFF THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS ALSO TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER
SINCE LAST NIGHTS RUN WITH LOW TRACKING FROM NEAR SLIDELL...TO
MOBILE...TO DOTHAN. THE GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER
AS WELL WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST A TOUCH NORTH OF THE
ECMWF. IN ADDITION...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE
NEAR THE OPERATIONAL RUN. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK...MOISTURE WILL
BE PLENTIFUL WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO 1.25 INCHES LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. DUE TO THIS AND BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY WENT
AHEAD FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THESE HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EXPECT LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE WARMER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND CURRENTLY HAVE LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S. DUE TO THE WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH TRACK...
WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ONLY THE
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES OR SO. IN ADDITION...THE WEAKER SYSTEM
WILL NOT PULL IN AS MUCH COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AND INCREASED
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR WITH HIGHS MAYBE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBMX 161735
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1135 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING.
DESPITE BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...NOT MUCH COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW
CLIMO VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL CURB WARMING SOMEWHAT...AND EXPECT
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ASIDE FROM SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AT 3000-3500 FEET
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUD-FREE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 327 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BEGIN TO
DROP ACROSS THE WEST WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. SHOWERS SHOULD
COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 15Z. MOST OF THE AREA
WILL HAVE PLENTY OF INSOLATION TODAY TO OVERCOME THE WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...WRAP AROUND CLOUDS LOOK TO MOVE
IN ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING A HARD TIME
MAKING IT OUT OF THE LOW 50S. FURTHER SOUTH WITH INSOLATION...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS PROGRESS AND FURTHER UPDATES TO TEMPERATURES
AND CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ZONAL LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH ONLY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD
LEAD  TO TEMPERATURES TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LEAD TO SOME LIFT ACROSS THE AREA BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED
WITH PW VALUES GENERALLY UNDER 0.75 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY A CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WILL BE.

ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST  AND PIVOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE TEXAS
GULF COAST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL HELP TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY. THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GEM...ECMWF AND GFS STILL DIFFER BUT ARE
BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARDS A CONSENSUS. THE GEM STILL FAVORS A
SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE LOW JUST OFF THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS ALSO TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER
SINCE LAST NIGHTS RUN WITH LOW TRACKING FROM NEAR SLIDELL...TO
MOBILE...TO DOTHAN. THE GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER
AS WELL WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST A TOUCH NORTH OF THE
ECMWF. IN ADDITION...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE
NEAR THE OPERATIONAL RUN. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK...MOISTURE WILL
BE PLENTIFUL WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO 1.25 INCHES LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. DUE TO THIS AND BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY WENT
AHEAD FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THESE HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EXPECT LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE WARMER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND CURRENTLY HAVE LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S. DUE TO THE WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH TRACK...
WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ONLY THE
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES OR SO. IN ADDITION...THE WEAKER SYSTEM
WILL NOT PULL IN AS MUCH COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AND INCREASED
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR WITH HIGHS MAYBE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 161634 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1034 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING.
DESPITE BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...NOT MUCH COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW
CLIMO VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL CURB WARMING SOMEWHAT...AND EXPECT
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT IN
SOUTHEAST WILL BE MOVING OUT. ACROSS THE NORTH TERMINALS...(I-20
CORRIDOR) MAY SEE SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS AT TCL/BHM/EET/
ASN/ANB TODAY BUT MORE THAN LIKELY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE AND ABOVE 3KFT WITH THE LOWER CIGS FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS MORNING WITH TIGHTER
GRADIENTS IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD TAPER DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

08/MK


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 723 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BEGIN TO DROP ACROSS THE
WEST WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 15Z. MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
INSOLATION TODAY TO OVERCOME THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. FURTHER TO
THE NORTH...WRAP AROUND CLOUDS LOOK TO MOVE IN ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-20 WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT OUT OF THE LOW
50S. FURTHER SOUTH WITH INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR SOUTH THE WRAP AROUND CLOUDS PROGRESS AND
FURTHER UPDATES TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ZONAL LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH ONLY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO TEMPERATURES TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SOME LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH PW VALUES GENERALLY UNDER
0.75 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY A CHANCE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE.

ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND PIVOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE
ALONG THE NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL HELP TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF
THE GEM...ECMWF AND GFS STILL DIFFER BUT ARE BEGINNING TO TREND
TOWARDS A CONSENSUS. THE GEM STILL FAVORS A SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE
LOW JUST OFF THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE ECMWF
HAS ALSO TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER SINCE LAST NIGHTS RUN WITH
LOW TRACKING FROM NEAR SLIDELL...TO MOBILE...TO DOTHAN. THE GFS HAS
TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER AS WELL WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING
JUST A TOUCH NORTH OF THE ECMWF. IN ADDITION...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NEAR THE OPERATIONAL RUN. REGARDLESS OF THE
TRACK...MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO 1.25
INCHES LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. DUE TO THIS AND BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY WENT AHEAD FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THESE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECT LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND CURRENTLY HAVE LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. DUE TO THE WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH
TRACK...WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ONLY
THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES OR SO. IN ADDITION...THE WEAKER SYSTEM
WILL NOT PULL IN AS MUCH COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AND INCREASED
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
WITH HIGHS MAYBE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     54  32  53  33  53 /  10   0   0  10  20
ANNISTON    56  33  55  35  55 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  55  35  53  37  53 /  10   0   0  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  58  34  55  37  54 /  10   0   0  10  20
CALERA      57  35  55  37  55 /  10   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      60  37  57  38  59 /  10   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  63  34  59  37  61 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        64  34  59  37  62 /  10   0   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KBMX 161634 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1034 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING.
DESPITE BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...NOT MUCH COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW
CLIMO VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL CURB WARMING SOMEWHAT...AND EXPECT
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT IN
SOUTHEAST WILL BE MOVING OUT. ACROSS THE NORTH TERMINALS...(I-20
CORRIDOR) MAY SEE SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS AT TCL/BHM/EET/
ASN/ANB TODAY BUT MORE THAN LIKELY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE AND ABOVE 3KFT WITH THE LOWER CIGS FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS MORNING WITH TIGHTER
GRADIENTS IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD TAPER DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

08/MK


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 723 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BEGIN TO DROP ACROSS THE
WEST WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 15Z. MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
INSOLATION TODAY TO OVERCOME THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. FURTHER TO
THE NORTH...WRAP AROUND CLOUDS LOOK TO MOVE IN ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-20 WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT OUT OF THE LOW
50S. FURTHER SOUTH WITH INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR SOUTH THE WRAP AROUND CLOUDS PROGRESS AND
FURTHER UPDATES TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ZONAL LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH ONLY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO TEMPERATURES TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SOME LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH PW VALUES GENERALLY UNDER
0.75 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY A CHANCE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE.

ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND PIVOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE
ALONG THE NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL HELP TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF
THE GEM...ECMWF AND GFS STILL DIFFER BUT ARE BEGINNING TO TREND
TOWARDS A CONSENSUS. THE GEM STILL FAVORS A SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE
LOW JUST OFF THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE ECMWF
HAS ALSO TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER SINCE LAST NIGHTS RUN WITH
LOW TRACKING FROM NEAR SLIDELL...TO MOBILE...TO DOTHAN. THE GFS HAS
TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER AS WELL WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING
JUST A TOUCH NORTH OF THE ECMWF. IN ADDITION...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NEAR THE OPERATIONAL RUN. REGARDLESS OF THE
TRACK...MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO 1.25
INCHES LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. DUE TO THIS AND BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY WENT AHEAD FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THESE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECT LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND CURRENTLY HAVE LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. DUE TO THE WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH
TRACK...WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ONLY
THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES OR SO. IN ADDITION...THE WEAKER SYSTEM
WILL NOT PULL IN AS MUCH COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AND INCREASED
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
WITH HIGHS MAYBE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     54  32  53  33  53 /  10   0   0  10  20
ANNISTON    56  33  55  35  55 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  55  35  53  37  53 /  10   0   0  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  58  34  55  37  54 /  10   0   0  10  20
CALERA      57  35  55  37  55 /  10   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      60  37  57  38  59 /  10   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  63  34  59  37  61 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        64  34  59  37  62 /  10   0   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KBMX 161323 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
723 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BEGIN TO DROP ACROSS THE
WEST WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 15Z. MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
INSOLATION TODAY TO OVERCOME THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. FURTHER TO
THE NORTH...WRAP AROUND CLOUDS LOOK TO MOVE IN ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-20 WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT OUT OF THE LOW
50S. FURTHER SOUTH WITH INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR SOUTH THE WRAP AROUND CLOUDS PROGRESS AND
FURTHER UPDATES TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ZONAL LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH ONLY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO TEMPERATURES TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SOME LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH PW VALUES GENERALLY UNDER
0.75 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY A CHANCE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE.

ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND PIVOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE
ALONG THE NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL HELP TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF
THE GEM...ECMWF AND GFS STILL DIFFER BUT ARE BEGINNING TO TREND
TOWARDS A CONSENSUS. THE GEM STILL FAVORS A SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE
LOW JUST OFF THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE ECMWF
HAS ALSO TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER SINCE LAST NIGHTS RUN WITH
LOW TRACKING FROM NEAR SLIDELL...TO MOBILE...TO DOTHAN. THE GFS HAS
TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER AS WELL WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING
JUST A TOUCH NORTH OF THE ECMWF. IN ADDITION...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NEAR THE OPERATIONAL RUN. REGARDLESS OF THE
TRACK...MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO 1.25
INCHES LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. DUE TO THIS AND BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY WENT AHEAD FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THESE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECT LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND CURRENTLY HAVE LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. DUE TO THE WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH
TRACK...WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ONLY
THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES OR SO. IN ADDITION...THE WEAKER SYSTEM
WILL NOT PULL IN AS MUCH COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AND INCREASED
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
WITH HIGHS MAYBE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT IN
SOUTHEAST WILL BE MOVING OUT. ACROSS THE NORTH TERMINALS...(I-20
CORRIDOR) MAY SEE SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS AT TCL/BHM/EET/
ASN/ANB TODAY BUT MORE THAN LIKELY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE AND ABOVE 3KFT WITH THE LOWER CIGS FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS MORNING WITH TIGHTER
GRADIENTS IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD TAPER DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     54  32  53  33  53 /  10   0   0  10  20
ANNISTON    56  33  55  35  55 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  55  35  53  37  53 /  10   0   0  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  58  34  55  37  54 /  10   0   0  10  20
CALERA      57  35  55  37  55 /  10   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      60  37  57  38  59 /  40   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  63  34  59  37  61 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        64  34  59  37  62 /  50   0   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/08







000
FXUS64 KBMX 161323 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
723 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BEGIN TO DROP ACROSS THE
WEST WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 15Z. MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
INSOLATION TODAY TO OVERCOME THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. FURTHER TO
THE NORTH...WRAP AROUND CLOUDS LOOK TO MOVE IN ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-20 WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT OUT OF THE LOW
50S. FURTHER SOUTH WITH INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR SOUTH THE WRAP AROUND CLOUDS PROGRESS AND
FURTHER UPDATES TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ZONAL LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH ONLY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO TEMPERATURES TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SOME LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH PW VALUES GENERALLY UNDER
0.75 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY A CHANCE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE.

ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND PIVOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE
ALONG THE NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL HELP TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF
THE GEM...ECMWF AND GFS STILL DIFFER BUT ARE BEGINNING TO TREND
TOWARDS A CONSENSUS. THE GEM STILL FAVORS A SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE
LOW JUST OFF THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE ECMWF
HAS ALSO TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER SINCE LAST NIGHTS RUN WITH
LOW TRACKING FROM NEAR SLIDELL...TO MOBILE...TO DOTHAN. THE GFS HAS
TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER AS WELL WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING
JUST A TOUCH NORTH OF THE ECMWF. IN ADDITION...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NEAR THE OPERATIONAL RUN. REGARDLESS OF THE
TRACK...MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO 1.25
INCHES LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. DUE TO THIS AND BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY WENT AHEAD FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THESE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECT LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND CURRENTLY HAVE LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. DUE TO THE WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH
TRACK...WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ONLY
THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES OR SO. IN ADDITION...THE WEAKER SYSTEM
WILL NOT PULL IN AS MUCH COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AND INCREASED
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
WITH HIGHS MAYBE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT IN
SOUTHEAST WILL BE MOVING OUT. ACROSS THE NORTH TERMINALS...(I-20
CORRIDOR) MAY SEE SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS AT TCL/BHM/EET/
ASN/ANB TODAY BUT MORE THAN LIKELY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE AND ABOVE 3KFT WITH THE LOWER CIGS FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS MORNING WITH TIGHTER
GRADIENTS IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD TAPER DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     54  32  53  33  53 /  10   0   0  10  20
ANNISTON    56  33  55  35  55 /  10   0   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  55  35  53  37  53 /  10   0   0  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  58  34  55  37  54 /  10   0   0  10  20
CALERA      57  35  55  37  55 /  10   0   0  10  10
AUBURN      60  37  57  38  59 /  40   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  63  34  59  37  61 /  10   0   0  10  10
TROY        64  34  59  37  62 /  50   0   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/08








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