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000
FXUS64 KBMX 042017
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
317 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB AT DEPICTING THE
CONVECTIVE LINE COMING OUT OF MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS LINE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH CAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG...AND A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...A MCV OVR
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA TONIGHT. EVEN
THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS TWO
NIGHTS...ANY BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL LEAD TO
SOME FLASH FLOODING...AND THE WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AND
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT LIKELY BE AS ORGANIZED OR AS STRONG AS THE
PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
RATHER HIGH. BY MONDAY THE SHORT WAVE TROF FINALLY MOVES EAST OF
ALABAMA AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE. A UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND WESTWARD AND BEGIN TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE GFS IS NOW COMING MORE IN
LINE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK. NEXT
WEEKS PATTERN WILL BE A MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT DIURNAL CONVECTION
HAS BEGUN AND IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING
ACTIVITY HAS PUSH TO A DEMOPOLIS TO MONTGOMERY TO AUBURN LINE.
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI NEAR THE BOUNDARY...AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ENE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY JUST SKIRT
KTCL AND KBHM TO THE SOUTH...BUT PROBABLY IMPACT KEET...KASN...AND
KANB BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FCST BEYOND 00Z AS THE
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION WANING ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BUT WIDESPREAD
SHWRS AND TSTMS EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-20. THE MAIN UPPER TROF SHIFTS
INTO THE AREA BY 12Z WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME VCSH AND ISOLD
TSRA. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDER THE TROF
AXIS.

58/ROSE


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  80  68  86  70 /  80  70  40  40  30
ANNISTON    69  81  68  86  69 /  80  80  40  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  69  82  69  87  71 /  80  70  40  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  69  83  70  89  72 /  80  70  40  50  20
CALERA      69  82  69  86  71 /  80  70  40  40  30
AUBURN      70  80  69  85  71 /  70  80  50  40  30
MONTGOMERY  70  85  70  89  72 /  70  80  40  40  30
TROY        72  84  70  88  71 /  60  80  40  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-
PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 042017
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
317 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB AT DEPICTING THE
CONVECTIVE LINE COMING OUT OF MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS LINE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH CAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG...AND A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...A MCV OVR
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA TONIGHT. EVEN
THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS TWO
NIGHTS...ANY BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL LEAD TO
SOME FLASH FLOODING...AND THE WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AND
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT LIKELY BE AS ORGANIZED OR AS STRONG AS THE
PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
RATHER HIGH. BY MONDAY THE SHORT WAVE TROF FINALLY MOVES EAST OF
ALABAMA AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE. A UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND WESTWARD AND BEGIN TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE GFS IS NOW COMING MORE IN
LINE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK. NEXT
WEEKS PATTERN WILL BE A MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT DIURNAL CONVECTION
HAS BEGUN AND IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING
ACTIVITY HAS PUSH TO A DEMOPOLIS TO MONTGOMERY TO AUBURN LINE.
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI NEAR THE BOUNDARY...AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ENE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY JUST SKIRT
KTCL AND KBHM TO THE SOUTH...BUT PROBABLY IMPACT KEET...KASN...AND
KANB BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FCST BEYOND 00Z AS THE
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION WANING ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BUT WIDESPREAD
SHWRS AND TSTMS EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-20. THE MAIN UPPER TROF SHIFTS
INTO THE AREA BY 12Z WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME VCSH AND ISOLD
TSRA. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDER THE TROF
AXIS.

58/ROSE


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  80  68  86  70 /  80  70  40  40  30
ANNISTON    69  81  68  86  69 /  80  80  40  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  69  82  69  87  71 /  80  70  40  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  69  83  70  89  72 /  80  70  40  50  20
CALERA      69  82  69  86  71 /  80  70  40  40  30
AUBURN      70  80  69  85  71 /  70  80  50  40  30
MONTGOMERY  70  85  70  89  72 /  70  80  40  40  30
TROY        72  84  70  88  71 /  60  80  40  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-
PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 041809
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
109 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THE HEAVY RAINFALL SUBSIDED AFTER SUNRISE AND
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PUSHED SOUTHWARD.
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED NEAR GREENSBORO ...TO
ROCKFORD...TO LAFAYETTE LINE AT 10 AM. THE FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY WILL SHIFT FROM FLOODING TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE OVER ARKANSAS WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LAST WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

EVEN THOUGH THE FLOODING THREAT HAS DIMINISHED WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA FOR NOW...MORE RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT....AND THE WATCH WILL
BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE. THE MAIN CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER RAIN
CHANCES NORTH WITH HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT DIURNAL CONVECTION
HAS BEGUN AND IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING
ACTIVITY HAS PUSH TO A DEMOPOLIS TO MONTGOMERY TO AUBURN LINE.
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI NEAR THE BOUNDARY...AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ENE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY JUST SKIRT
KTCL AND KBHM TO THE SOUTH...BUT PROBABLY IMPACT KEET...KASN...AND
KANB BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FCST BEYOND 00Z AS THE
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION WANING ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BUT WIDESPREAD
SHWRS AND TSTMS EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-20. THE MAIN UPPER TROF SHIFTS
INTO THE AREA BY 12Z WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME VCSH AND ISOLD
TSRA. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDER THE TROF
AXIS.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  82  68  86  70 /  80  70  40  50  30
ANNISTON    69  82  68  86  69 /  80  70  40  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  69  83  69  86  71 /  80  70  40  50  20
TUSCALOOSA  69  84  70  88  72 /  80  70  40  50  20
CALERA      69  83  69  85  71 /  80  70  40  50  20
AUBURN      70  83  69  84  71 /  70  70  40  50  30
MONTGOMERY  70  86  70  88  72 /  70  70  40  50  20
TROY        72  86  70  87  71 /  70  70  40  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-
PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 041809
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
109 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THE HEAVY RAINFALL SUBSIDED AFTER SUNRISE AND
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PUSHED SOUTHWARD.
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED NEAR GREENSBORO ...TO
ROCKFORD...TO LAFAYETTE LINE AT 10 AM. THE FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY WILL SHIFT FROM FLOODING TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE OVER ARKANSAS WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LAST WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

EVEN THOUGH THE FLOODING THREAT HAS DIMINISHED WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA FOR NOW...MORE RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT....AND THE WATCH WILL
BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE. THE MAIN CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER RAIN
CHANCES NORTH WITH HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT DIURNAL CONVECTION
HAS BEGUN AND IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING
ACTIVITY HAS PUSH TO A DEMOPOLIS TO MONTGOMERY TO AUBURN LINE.
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI NEAR THE BOUNDARY...AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ENE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY JUST SKIRT
KTCL AND KBHM TO THE SOUTH...BUT PROBABLY IMPACT KEET...KASN...AND
KANB BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FCST BEYOND 00Z AS THE
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION WANING ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BUT WIDESPREAD
SHWRS AND TSTMS EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-20. THE MAIN UPPER TROF SHIFTS
INTO THE AREA BY 12Z WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME VCSH AND ISOLD
TSRA. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDER THE TROF
AXIS.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  82  68  86  70 /  80  70  40  50  30
ANNISTON    69  82  68  86  69 /  80  70  40  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  69  83  69  86  71 /  80  70  40  50  20
TUSCALOOSA  69  84  70  88  72 /  80  70  40  50  20
CALERA      69  83  69  85  71 /  80  70  40  50  20
AUBURN      70  83  69  84  71 /  70  70  40  50  30
MONTGOMERY  70  86  70  88  72 /  70  70  40  50  20
TROY        72  86  70  87  71 /  70  70  40  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-
PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 041809
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
109 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THE HEAVY RAINFALL SUBSIDED AFTER SUNRISE AND
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PUSHED SOUTHWARD.
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED NEAR GREENSBORO ...TO
ROCKFORD...TO LAFAYETTE LINE AT 10 AM. THE FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY WILL SHIFT FROM FLOODING TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE OVER ARKANSAS WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LAST WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

EVEN THOUGH THE FLOODING THREAT HAS DIMINISHED WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA FOR NOW...MORE RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT....AND THE WATCH WILL
BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE. THE MAIN CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER RAIN
CHANCES NORTH WITH HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT DIURNAL CONVECTION
HAS BEGUN AND IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING
ACTIVITY HAS PUSH TO A DEMOPOLIS TO MONTGOMERY TO AUBURN LINE.
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI NEAR THE BOUNDARY...AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ENE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY JUST SKIRT
KTCL AND KBHM TO THE SOUTH...BUT PROBABLY IMPACT KEET...KASN...AND
KANB BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FCST BEYOND 00Z AS THE
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION WANING ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BUT WIDESPREAD
SHWRS AND TSTMS EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-20. THE MAIN UPPER TROF SHIFTS
INTO THE AREA BY 12Z WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME VCSH AND ISOLD
TSRA. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDER THE TROF
AXIS.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  82  68  86  70 /  80  70  40  50  30
ANNISTON    69  82  68  86  69 /  80  70  40  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  69  83  69  86  71 /  80  70  40  50  20
TUSCALOOSA  69  84  70  88  72 /  80  70  40  50  20
CALERA      69  83  69  85  71 /  80  70  40  50  20
AUBURN      70  83  69  84  71 /  70  70  40  50  30
MONTGOMERY  70  86  70  88  72 /  70  70  40  50  20
TROY        72  86  70  87  71 /  70  70  40  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-
PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 041541
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1041 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THE HEAVY RAINFALL SUBSIDED AFTER SUNRISE AND
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PUSHED SOUTHWARD.
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED NEAR GREENSBORO ...TO
ROCKFORD...TO LAFAYETTE LINE AT 10 AM. THE FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY WILL SHIFT FROM FLOODING TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE OVER ARKANSAS WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LAST WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

EVEN THOUGH THE FLOODING THREAT HAS DIMINISHED WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA FOR NOW...MORE RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT....AND THE WATCH WILL
BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE. THE MAIN CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER RAIN
CHANCES NORTH WITH HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NORTHERN SITES WILL SEE THE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING THROUGH THE
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY AFTER NOON
THROUGH 21Z BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND. THERE WILL LIKELY BE 3 OR 4
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR THE SOUTH
THE RAIN WILL WORK INTO MGM AFTER 21Z AND TOI AFTER 22Z.

16


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 714 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

RADAR IMAGERY IS VERY SIMILAR TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING...
WITH A PERSISTENT CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND WESTWARD INTO ARKANSAS.
THE FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING POSITIVELY
TILTED 500MB TROUGH AXIS. HIGH PWAT VALUES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL UPSTREAM ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI IS ON A TRAJECTORY TOWARD MARION COUNTY...WHERE
RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE APPROACHING 10 INCHES SINCE JULY 1ST. VERY
SATURATED GROUND EXISTS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND FLASH
FLOODING COULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE LATER THIS MORNING.

FARTHER SOUTH...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. 700-500MB FLOW OF 30-40KT WILL SUPPORT
BOWING SEGMENTS AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY.

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
TONIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY CLOSED OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS TENNESSEE. WITH A LACK OF RIDGING UPSTREAM FROM THE
TROUGH...PWAT VALUES SHOULD REMAIN QUITE HIGH NEAR AND BEHIND THE
THROUGH AXIS. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR SUNDAY...
AND CANNOT RULE OUT A NEED FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME AND/OR EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

87/GRANTHAM

LONG TERM...
AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

THE TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO EXIT ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRIES
TO SWING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND KEEP THE FRONT FROM WORKING
INTO THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PUSH IT BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. WITH THAT SCENARIO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE WE DO GET BACK TO MORE OF A
CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMER BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOW 90S SOUTH AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
STORMS IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     77  69  82  68  86 / 100  80  70  40  50
ANNISTON    79  69  82  68  86 / 100  80  70  40  50
BIRMINGHAM  78  69  83  69  86 / 100  80  70  40  50
TUSCALOOSA  80  69  84  70  88 / 100  80  70  40  50
CALERA      79  69  83  69  85 / 100  80  70  40  50
AUBURN      84  70  83  69  84 /  70  70  70  40  50
MONTGOMERY  89  70  86  70  88 /  70  70  70  40  50
TROY        88  72  86  70  87 /  70  70  70  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-
PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 041541
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1041 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THE HEAVY RAINFALL SUBSIDED AFTER SUNRISE AND
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PUSHED SOUTHWARD.
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED NEAR GREENSBORO ...TO
ROCKFORD...TO LAFAYETTE LINE AT 10 AM. THE FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY WILL SHIFT FROM FLOODING TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE OVER ARKANSAS WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LAST WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

EVEN THOUGH THE FLOODING THREAT HAS DIMINISHED WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA FOR NOW...MORE RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT....AND THE WATCH WILL
BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE. THE MAIN CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER RAIN
CHANCES NORTH WITH HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NORTHERN SITES WILL SEE THE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING THROUGH THE
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY AFTER NOON
THROUGH 21Z BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND. THERE WILL LIKELY BE 3 OR 4
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR THE SOUTH
THE RAIN WILL WORK INTO MGM AFTER 21Z AND TOI AFTER 22Z.

16


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 714 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

RADAR IMAGERY IS VERY SIMILAR TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING...
WITH A PERSISTENT CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND WESTWARD INTO ARKANSAS.
THE FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING POSITIVELY
TILTED 500MB TROUGH AXIS. HIGH PWAT VALUES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL UPSTREAM ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI IS ON A TRAJECTORY TOWARD MARION COUNTY...WHERE
RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE APPROACHING 10 INCHES SINCE JULY 1ST. VERY
SATURATED GROUND EXISTS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND FLASH
FLOODING COULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE LATER THIS MORNING.

FARTHER SOUTH...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. 700-500MB FLOW OF 30-40KT WILL SUPPORT
BOWING SEGMENTS AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY.

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
TONIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY CLOSED OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS TENNESSEE. WITH A LACK OF RIDGING UPSTREAM FROM THE
TROUGH...PWAT VALUES SHOULD REMAIN QUITE HIGH NEAR AND BEHIND THE
THROUGH AXIS. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR SUNDAY...
AND CANNOT RULE OUT A NEED FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME AND/OR EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

87/GRANTHAM

LONG TERM...
AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

THE TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO EXIT ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRIES
TO SWING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND KEEP THE FRONT FROM WORKING
INTO THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PUSH IT BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. WITH THAT SCENARIO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE WE DO GET BACK TO MORE OF A
CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMER BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOW 90S SOUTH AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
STORMS IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     77  69  82  68  86 / 100  80  70  40  50
ANNISTON    79  69  82  68  86 / 100  80  70  40  50
BIRMINGHAM  78  69  83  69  86 / 100  80  70  40  50
TUSCALOOSA  80  69  84  70  88 / 100  80  70  40  50
CALERA      79  69  83  69  85 / 100  80  70  40  50
AUBURN      84  70  83  69  84 /  70  70  70  40  50
MONTGOMERY  89  70  86  70  88 /  70  70  70  40  50
TROY        88  72  86  70  87 /  70  70  70  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-
PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 041214
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
714 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

RADAR IMAGERY IS VERY SIMILAR TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING...
WITH A PERSISTENT CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND WESTWARD INTO ARKANSAS.
THE FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING POSITIVELY
TILTED 500MB TROUGH AXIS. HIGH PWAT VALUES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL UPSTREAM ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI IS ON A TRAJECTORY TOWARD MARION COUNTY...WHERE
RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE APPROACHING 10 INCHES SINCE JULY 1ST. VERY
SATURATED GROUND EXISTS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND FLASH
FLOODING COULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE LATER THIS MORNING.

FARTHER SOUTH...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. 700-500MB FLOW OF 30-40KT WILL SUPPORT
BOWING SEGMENTS AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY.

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
TONIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY CLOSED OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS TENNESSEE. WITH A LACK OF RIDGING UPSTREAM FROM THE
TROUGH...PWAT VALUES SHOULD REMAIN QUITE HIGH NEAR AND BEHIND THE
THROUGH AXIS. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR SUNDAY...
AND CANNOT RULE OUT A NEED FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME AND/OR EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

87/GRANTHAM

.LONG TERM...
AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

THE TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO EXIT ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRIES
TO SWING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND KEEP THE FRONT FROM WORKING
INTO THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PUSH IT BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. WITH THAT SCENARIO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE WE DO GET BACK TO MORE OF A
CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMER BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOW 90S SOUTH AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
STORMS IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NORTHERN SITES WILL SEE THE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING THROUGH THE
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY AFTER NOON
THROUGH 21Z BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND. THERE WILL LIKELY BE 3 OR 4
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR THE SOUTH
THE RAIN WILL WORK INTO MGM AFTER 21Z AND TOI AFTER 22Z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     77  69  82  68  86 / 100  80  70  40  50
ANNISTON    79  69  82  68  86 / 100  80  70  40  50
BIRMINGHAM  78  69  83  69  86 / 100  80  70  40  50
TUSCALOOSA  80  69  84  70  88 /  90  80  70  40  50
CALERA      79  69  83  69  85 /  90  80  70  40  50
AUBURN      84  70  83  69  84 /  80  70  70  40  50
MONTGOMERY  89  70  86  70  88 /  80  70  70  40  50
TROY        88  72  86  70  87 /  70  70  70  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-
PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 041214
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
714 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

RADAR IMAGERY IS VERY SIMILAR TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING...
WITH A PERSISTENT CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND WESTWARD INTO ARKANSAS.
THE FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING POSITIVELY
TILTED 500MB TROUGH AXIS. HIGH PWAT VALUES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL UPSTREAM ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI IS ON A TRAJECTORY TOWARD MARION COUNTY...WHERE
RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE APPROACHING 10 INCHES SINCE JULY 1ST. VERY
SATURATED GROUND EXISTS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND FLASH
FLOODING COULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE LATER THIS MORNING.

FARTHER SOUTH...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. 700-500MB FLOW OF 30-40KT WILL SUPPORT
BOWING SEGMENTS AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY.

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
TONIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY CLOSED OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS TENNESSEE. WITH A LACK OF RIDGING UPSTREAM FROM THE
TROUGH...PWAT VALUES SHOULD REMAIN QUITE HIGH NEAR AND BEHIND THE
THROUGH AXIS. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR SUNDAY...
AND CANNOT RULE OUT A NEED FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME AND/OR EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

87/GRANTHAM

.LONG TERM...
AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

THE TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO EXIT ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRIES
TO SWING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND KEEP THE FRONT FROM WORKING
INTO THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PUSH IT BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. WITH THAT SCENARIO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE WE DO GET BACK TO MORE OF A
CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMER BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOW 90S SOUTH AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
STORMS IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NORTHERN SITES WILL SEE THE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING THROUGH THE
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY AFTER NOON
THROUGH 21Z BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND. THERE WILL LIKELY BE 3 OR 4
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR THE SOUTH
THE RAIN WILL WORK INTO MGM AFTER 21Z AND TOI AFTER 22Z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     77  69  82  68  86 / 100  80  70  40  50
ANNISTON    79  69  82  68  86 / 100  80  70  40  50
BIRMINGHAM  78  69  83  69  86 / 100  80  70  40  50
TUSCALOOSA  80  69  84  70  88 /  90  80  70  40  50
CALERA      79  69  83  69  85 /  90  80  70  40  50
AUBURN      84  70  83  69  84 /  80  70  70  40  50
MONTGOMERY  89  70  86  70  88 /  80  70  70  40  50
TROY        88  72  86  70  87 /  70  70  70  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-
PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 041214
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
714 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

RADAR IMAGERY IS VERY SIMILAR TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING...
WITH A PERSISTENT CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND WESTWARD INTO ARKANSAS.
THE FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING POSITIVELY
TILTED 500MB TROUGH AXIS. HIGH PWAT VALUES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL UPSTREAM ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI IS ON A TRAJECTORY TOWARD MARION COUNTY...WHERE
RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE APPROACHING 10 INCHES SINCE JULY 1ST. VERY
SATURATED GROUND EXISTS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND FLASH
FLOODING COULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE LATER THIS MORNING.

FARTHER SOUTH...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. 700-500MB FLOW OF 30-40KT WILL SUPPORT
BOWING SEGMENTS AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY.

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
TONIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY CLOSED OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS TENNESSEE. WITH A LACK OF RIDGING UPSTREAM FROM THE
TROUGH...PWAT VALUES SHOULD REMAIN QUITE HIGH NEAR AND BEHIND THE
THROUGH AXIS. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR SUNDAY...
AND CANNOT RULE OUT A NEED FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME AND/OR EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

87/GRANTHAM

.LONG TERM...
AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

THE TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO EXIT ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRIES
TO SWING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND KEEP THE FRONT FROM WORKING
INTO THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PUSH IT BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. WITH THAT SCENARIO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE WE DO GET BACK TO MORE OF A
CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMER BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOW 90S SOUTH AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
STORMS IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NORTHERN SITES WILL SEE THE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING THROUGH THE
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY AFTER NOON
THROUGH 21Z BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND. THERE WILL LIKELY BE 3 OR 4
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR THE SOUTH
THE RAIN WILL WORK INTO MGM AFTER 21Z AND TOI AFTER 22Z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     77  69  82  68  86 / 100  80  70  40  50
ANNISTON    79  69  82  68  86 / 100  80  70  40  50
BIRMINGHAM  78  69  83  69  86 / 100  80  70  40  50
TUSCALOOSA  80  69  84  70  88 /  90  80  70  40  50
CALERA      79  69  83  69  85 /  90  80  70  40  50
AUBURN      84  70  83  69  84 /  80  70  70  40  50
MONTGOMERY  89  70  86  70  88 /  80  70  70  40  50
TROY        88  72  86  70  87 /  70  70  70  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-
PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 041214
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
714 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

RADAR IMAGERY IS VERY SIMILAR TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING...
WITH A PERSISTENT CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND WESTWARD INTO ARKANSAS.
THE FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING POSITIVELY
TILTED 500MB TROUGH AXIS. HIGH PWAT VALUES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL UPSTREAM ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI IS ON A TRAJECTORY TOWARD MARION COUNTY...WHERE
RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE APPROACHING 10 INCHES SINCE JULY 1ST. VERY
SATURATED GROUND EXISTS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND FLASH
FLOODING COULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE LATER THIS MORNING.

FARTHER SOUTH...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. 700-500MB FLOW OF 30-40KT WILL SUPPORT
BOWING SEGMENTS AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY.

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
TONIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY CLOSED OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS TENNESSEE. WITH A LACK OF RIDGING UPSTREAM FROM THE
TROUGH...PWAT VALUES SHOULD REMAIN QUITE HIGH NEAR AND BEHIND THE
THROUGH AXIS. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR SUNDAY...
AND CANNOT RULE OUT A NEED FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME AND/OR EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

87/GRANTHAM

.LONG TERM...
AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

THE TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO EXIT ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRIES
TO SWING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND KEEP THE FRONT FROM WORKING
INTO THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PUSH IT BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. WITH THAT SCENARIO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE WE DO GET BACK TO MORE OF A
CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMER BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOW 90S SOUTH AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
STORMS IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NORTHERN SITES WILL SEE THE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING THROUGH THE
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY AFTER NOON
THROUGH 21Z BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND. THERE WILL LIKELY BE 3 OR 4
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR THE SOUTH
THE RAIN WILL WORK INTO MGM AFTER 21Z AND TOI AFTER 22Z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     77  69  82  68  86 / 100  80  70  40  50
ANNISTON    79  69  82  68  86 / 100  80  70  40  50
BIRMINGHAM  78  69  83  69  86 / 100  80  70  40  50
TUSCALOOSA  80  69  84  70  88 /  90  80  70  40  50
CALERA      79  69  83  69  85 /  90  80  70  40  50
AUBURN      84  70  83  69  84 /  80  70  70  40  50
MONTGOMERY  89  70  86  70  88 /  80  70  70  40  50
TROY        88  72  86  70  87 /  70  70  70  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-
PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 040833
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

RADAR IMAGERY IS VERY SIMILAR TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING...
WITH A PERSISTENT CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND WESTWARD INTO ARKANSAS.
THE FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING POSITIVELY
TILTED 500MB TROUGH AXIS. HIGH PWAT VALUES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL UPSTREAM ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI IS ON A TRAJECTORY TOWARD MARION COUNTY...WHERE
RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE APPROACHING 10 INCHES SINCE JULY 1ST. VERY
SATURATED GROUND EXISTS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND FLASH
FLOODING COULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE LATER THIS MORNING.

FARTHER SOUTH...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. 700-500MB FLOW OF 30-40KT WILL SUPPORT
BOWING SEGMENTS AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY.

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
TONIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY CLOSED OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS TENNESSEE. WITH A LACK OF RIDGING UPSTREAM FROM THE
TROUGH...PWAT VALUES SHOULD REMAIN QUITE HIGH NEAR AND BEHIND THE
THROUGH AXIS. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR SUNDAY...
AND CANNOT RULE OUT A NEED FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME AND/OR EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

87/GRANTHAM

.LONG TERM...
AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

THE TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO EXIT ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRIES
TO SWING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND KEEP THE FRONT FROM WORKING
INTO THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PUSH IT BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. WITH THAT SCENARIO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE WE DO GET BACK TO MORE OF A
CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMER BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOW 90S SOUTH AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
STORMS IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL POSE A THREAT THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN ACTIVITY
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE APPROACHING MGM. IN SHORT...
POTENTIAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME THIS OVERNIGHT WITH
STORMS/SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 KTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     82  69  83  68  86 /  80  50  60  30  50
ANNISTON    84  69  83  68  86 /  70  60  60  30  50
BIRMINGHAM  83  70  84  70  86 /  80  60  60  30  50
TUSCALOOSA  85  71  87  70  89 /  80  60  60  30  50
CALERA      85  70  85  70  86 /  70  60  60  30  50
AUBURN      86  70  85  70  85 /  50  60  50  30  60
MONTGOMERY  90  72  87  71  88 /  60  60  60  30  60
TROY        90  71  88  70  88 /  50  60  50  30  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-
PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 040833
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

RADAR IMAGERY IS VERY SIMILAR TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING...
WITH A PERSISTENT CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND WESTWARD INTO ARKANSAS.
THE FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING POSITIVELY
TILTED 500MB TROUGH AXIS. HIGH PWAT VALUES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL UPSTREAM ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI IS ON A TRAJECTORY TOWARD MARION COUNTY...WHERE
RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE APPROACHING 10 INCHES SINCE JULY 1ST. VERY
SATURATED GROUND EXISTS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND FLASH
FLOODING COULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE LATER THIS MORNING.

FARTHER SOUTH...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. 700-500MB FLOW OF 30-40KT WILL SUPPORT
BOWING SEGMENTS AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY.

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
TONIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY CLOSED OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS TENNESSEE. WITH A LACK OF RIDGING UPSTREAM FROM THE
TROUGH...PWAT VALUES SHOULD REMAIN QUITE HIGH NEAR AND BEHIND THE
THROUGH AXIS. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR SUNDAY...
AND CANNOT RULE OUT A NEED FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME AND/OR EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

87/GRANTHAM

.LONG TERM...
AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

THE TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO EXIT ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRIES
TO SWING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND KEEP THE FRONT FROM WORKING
INTO THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PUSH IT BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. WITH THAT SCENARIO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE WE DO GET BACK TO MORE OF A
CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMER BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOW 90S SOUTH AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
STORMS IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL POSE A THREAT THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN ACTIVITY
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE APPROACHING MGM. IN SHORT...
POTENTIAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME THIS OVERNIGHT WITH
STORMS/SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 KTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     82  69  83  68  86 /  80  50  60  30  50
ANNISTON    84  69  83  68  86 /  70  60  60  30  50
BIRMINGHAM  83  70  84  70  86 /  80  60  60  30  50
TUSCALOOSA  85  71  87  70  89 /  80  60  60  30  50
CALERA      85  70  85  70  86 /  70  60  60  30  50
AUBURN      86  70  85  70  85 /  50  60  50  30  60
MONTGOMERY  90  72  87  71  88 /  60  60  60  30  60
TROY        90  71  88  70  88 /  50  60  50  30  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-
PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 040445
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS PUSHED TO NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA...CALERA...ASHLAND LINE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN CONFINED TO MAINLY MARION AND
WINSTON COUNTIES...WITH 2 T 4 INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE STILL IN THE 2-2.5 INCH PER HOUR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND BELIEVE THE GROUND WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...AND WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT EASTWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE TROF AXIS FINALLY SHIFTING EAST OF ALABAMA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER AND LESS CONVECTIVE NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS ALABAMA THAN THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30-35 PERCENT
RANGE FOR NOW...BUT COULD REDUCE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THE
GFS TRENDS DRIER.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL POSE A THREAT THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN ACTIVITY
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE APPROACHING MGM. IN
SHORT...POTENTIAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME THIS OVERNIGHT WITH
STORMS/SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 KTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 040445
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS PUSHED TO NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA...CALERA...ASHLAND LINE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN CONFINED TO MAINLY MARION AND
WINSTON COUNTIES...WITH 2 T 4 INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE STILL IN THE 2-2.5 INCH PER HOUR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND BELIEVE THE GROUND WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...AND WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT EASTWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE TROF AXIS FINALLY SHIFTING EAST OF ALABAMA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER AND LESS CONVECTIVE NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS ALABAMA THAN THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30-35 PERCENT
RANGE FOR NOW...BUT COULD REDUCE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THE
GFS TRENDS DRIER.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL POSE A THREAT THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN ACTIVITY
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE APPROACHING MGM. IN
SHORT...POTENTIAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME THIS OVERNIGHT WITH
STORMS/SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 KTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 040445
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS PUSHED TO NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA...CALERA...ASHLAND LINE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN CONFINED TO MAINLY MARION AND
WINSTON COUNTIES...WITH 2 T 4 INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE STILL IN THE 2-2.5 INCH PER HOUR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND BELIEVE THE GROUND WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...AND WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT EASTWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE TROF AXIS FINALLY SHIFTING EAST OF ALABAMA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER AND LESS CONVECTIVE NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS ALABAMA THAN THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30-35 PERCENT
RANGE FOR NOW...BUT COULD REDUCE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THE
GFS TRENDS DRIER.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL POSE A THREAT THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN ACTIVITY
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE APPROACHING MGM. IN
SHORT...POTENTIAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME THIS OVERNIGHT WITH
STORMS/SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 KTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 032330
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS PUSHED TO NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA...CALERA...ASHLAND LINE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN CONFINED TO MAINLY MARION AND
WINSTON COUNTIES...WITH 2 T 4 INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE STILL IN THE 2-2.5 INCH PER HOUR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND BELIEVE THE GROUND WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...AND WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT EASTWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE TROF AXIS FINALLY SHIFTING EAST OF ALABAMA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER AND LESS CONVECTIVE NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS ALABAMA THAN THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30-35 PERCENT
RANGE FOR NOW...BUT COULD REDUCE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THE
GFS TRENDS DRIER.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STORMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL POSE A
THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN ACTIVITY
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE FROM TCL TO EET BUT OTHER STORMS
ARE NOTED BACK INTO MISSISSIPPI. ALSO WATCHING A CLUSTER OF STORMS
MOVING TOWARDS MGM FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN SHORT...POTENTIAL
IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME THIS EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 KTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 032330
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS PUSHED TO NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA...CALERA...ASHLAND LINE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN CONFINED TO MAINLY MARION AND
WINSTON COUNTIES...WITH 2 T 4 INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE STILL IN THE 2-2.5 INCH PER HOUR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND BELIEVE THE GROUND WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...AND WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT EASTWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE TROF AXIS FINALLY SHIFTING EAST OF ALABAMA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER AND LESS CONVECTIVE NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS ALABAMA THAN THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30-35 PERCENT
RANGE FOR NOW...BUT COULD REDUCE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THE
GFS TRENDS DRIER.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STORMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL POSE A
THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN ACTIVITY
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE FROM TCL TO EET BUT OTHER STORMS
ARE NOTED BACK INTO MISSISSIPPI. ALSO WATCHING A CLUSTER OF STORMS
MOVING TOWARDS MGM FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN SHORT...POTENTIAL
IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME THIS EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 KTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOOON.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 032007
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS PUSHED TO NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA...CALERA...ASHLAND LINE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN CONFINED TO MAINLY MARION AND
WINSTON COUNTIES...WITH 2 T 4 INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE STILL IN THE 2-2.5 INCH PER HOUR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND BELIEVE THE GROUND WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...AND WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT EASTWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE TROF AXIS FINALLY SHIFTING EAST OF ALABAMA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER AND LESS CONVECTIVE NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS ALABAMA THAN THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30-35 PERCENT
RANGE FOR NOW...BUT COULD REDUCE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THE
GFS TRENDS DRIER.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURE CREATED A DIFFICULT
FORECAST FROM AN AVIATION PERSPECTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MUCH
OF THE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS NEXT TO USELESS...AS IT SHOWS
RAIN CHANCES AS WAY TOO LOW FOR PLACES LIKE BHM AND ANB THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE INDEED
STARTED TO REFORM RIGHT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...VERY NEAR BHM
OVER TO ANB/ASN. THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR THAT BOUNDARY TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING UP
ALONG IT...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING TCL AND EET ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS. HARD TO GET A GRASP UP HOW FAR SOUTH THE
RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY GET...HOWEVER. I INCLUDED A VCSH AT MGM TO AT
LEAST SHOW THE POSSIBILITY THERE. LEFT IT OUT AT TOI DUE TO EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY. EVEN OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS...CEILINGS ARE A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS WELL.

/61/


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  82  69  83  68 /  80  80  50  60  30
ANNISTON    70  84  69  83  68 /  70  70  60  60  30
BIRMINGHAM  71  83  70  84  70 /  80  80  60  60  30
TUSCALOOSA  71  85  71  87  70 /  70  80  60  60  30
CALERA      70  85  70  85  70 /  60  70  60  60  30
AUBURN      71  86  70  85  70 /  20  50  60  50  30
MONTGOMERY  73  90  72  87  71 /  20  60  60  60  30
TROY        72  90  71  88  70 /  20  50  60  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 032007
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS PUSHED TO NEAR A
TUSCALOOSA...CALERA...ASHLAND LINE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROF. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN CONFINED TO MAINLY MARION AND
WINSTON COUNTIES...WITH 2 T 4 INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE STILL IN THE 2-2.5 INCH PER HOUR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND BELIEVE THE GROUND WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...AND WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT EASTWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE TROF AXIS FINALLY SHIFTING EAST OF ALABAMA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER AND LESS CONVECTIVE NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS ALABAMA THAN THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30-35 PERCENT
RANGE FOR NOW...BUT COULD REDUCE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THE
GFS TRENDS DRIER.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURE CREATED A DIFFICULT
FORECAST FROM AN AVIATION PERSPECTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MUCH
OF THE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS NEXT TO USELESS...AS IT SHOWS
RAIN CHANCES AS WAY TOO LOW FOR PLACES LIKE BHM AND ANB THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE INDEED
STARTED TO REFORM RIGHT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...VERY NEAR BHM
OVER TO ANB/ASN. THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR THAT BOUNDARY TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING UP
ALONG IT...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING TCL AND EET ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS. HARD TO GET A GRASP UP HOW FAR SOUTH THE
RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY GET...HOWEVER. I INCLUDED A VCSH AT MGM TO AT
LEAST SHOW THE POSSIBILITY THERE. LEFT IT OUT AT TOI DUE TO EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY. EVEN OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS...CEILINGS ARE A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS WELL.

/61/


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  82  69  83  68 /  80  80  50  60  30
ANNISTON    70  84  69  83  68 /  70  70  60  60  30
BIRMINGHAM  71  83  70  84  70 /  80  80  60  60  30
TUSCALOOSA  71  85  71  87  70 /  70  80  60  60  30
CALERA      70  85  70  85  70 /  60  70  60  60  30
AUBURN      71  86  70  85  70 /  20  50  60  50  30
MONTGOMERY  73  90  72  87  71 /  20  60  60  60  30
TROY        72  90  71  88  70 /  20  50  60  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 031805
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
105 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC TO SAY THE LEAST. CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT HIGHER IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THOUGH...AS MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM INDIANA TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL APPROACH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT EASTWARD BEFORE THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
CIRCULATING AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN EXCELLENT SOURCE OF MOISTURE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE AFOREMENTIONED SETUP SHOULD LEAD TO A CORRIDOR OF
PERSISTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT SAGS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
EVIDENCE OF THIS IN THE FORM OF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
CURRENTLY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AND
FLIRTING WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT...POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-20. PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND A SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUPPORTIVE OF TRAINING ECHOES COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WILL INTRODUCE A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING INTO THE HWO THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH AND HIGH POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. THE MAIN ZONE OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURE CREATED A DIFFICULT
FORECAST FROM AN AVIATION PERSPECTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MUCH
OF THE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS NEXT TO USELESS...AS IT SHOWS
RAIN CHANCES AS WAY TOO LOW FOR PLACES LIKE BHM AND ANB THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE INDEED
STARTED TO REFORM RIGHT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...VERY NEAR BHM
OVER TO ANB/ASN. THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR THAT BOUNDARY TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING UP
ALONG IT...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING TCL AND EET ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS. HARD TO GET A GRASP UP HOW FAR SOUTH THE
RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY GET...HOWEVER. I INCLUDED A VCSH AT MGM TO AT
LEAST SHOW THE POSSIBILITY THERE. LEFT IT OUT AT TOI DUE TO EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY. EVEN OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS...CEILINGS ARE A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS WELL.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 031805
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
105 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC TO SAY THE LEAST. CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT HIGHER IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THOUGH...AS MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM INDIANA TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL APPROACH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT EASTWARD BEFORE THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
CIRCULATING AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN EXCELLENT SOURCE OF MOISTURE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE AFOREMENTIONED SETUP SHOULD LEAD TO A CORRIDOR OF
PERSISTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT SAGS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
EVIDENCE OF THIS IN THE FORM OF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
CURRENTLY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AND
FLIRTING WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT...POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-20. PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND A SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUPPORTIVE OF TRAINING ECHOES COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WILL INTRODUCE A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING INTO THE HWO THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH AND HIGH POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. THE MAIN ZONE OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURE CREATED A DIFFICULT
FORECAST FROM AN AVIATION PERSPECTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MUCH
OF THE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS NEXT TO USELESS...AS IT SHOWS
RAIN CHANCES AS WAY TOO LOW FOR PLACES LIKE BHM AND ANB THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE INDEED
STARTED TO REFORM RIGHT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...VERY NEAR BHM
OVER TO ANB/ASN. THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR THAT BOUNDARY TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING UP
ALONG IT...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING TCL AND EET ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS. HARD TO GET A GRASP UP HOW FAR SOUTH THE
RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY GET...HOWEVER. I INCLUDED A VCSH AT MGM TO AT
LEAST SHOW THE POSSIBILITY THERE. LEFT IT OUT AT TOI DUE TO EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY. EVEN OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS...CEILINGS ARE A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS WELL.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 031805
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
105 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC TO SAY THE LEAST. CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT HIGHER IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THOUGH...AS MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM INDIANA TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL APPROACH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT EASTWARD BEFORE THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
CIRCULATING AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN EXCELLENT SOURCE OF MOISTURE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE AFOREMENTIONED SETUP SHOULD LEAD TO A CORRIDOR OF
PERSISTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT SAGS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
EVIDENCE OF THIS IN THE FORM OF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
CURRENTLY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AND
FLIRTING WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT...POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-20. PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND A SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUPPORTIVE OF TRAINING ECHOES COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WILL INTRODUCE A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING INTO THE HWO THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH AND HIGH POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. THE MAIN ZONE OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURE CREATED A DIFFICULT
FORECAST FROM AN AVIATION PERSPECTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MUCH
OF THE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS NEXT TO USELESS...AS IT SHOWS
RAIN CHANCES AS WAY TOO LOW FOR PLACES LIKE BHM AND ANB THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE INDEED
STARTED TO REFORM RIGHT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...VERY NEAR BHM
OVER TO ANB/ASN. THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR THAT BOUNDARY TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING UP
ALONG IT...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING TCL AND EET ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS. HARD TO GET A GRASP UP HOW FAR SOUTH THE
RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY GET...HOWEVER. I INCLUDED A VCSH AT MGM TO AT
LEAST SHOW THE POSSIBILITY THERE. LEFT IT OUT AT TOI DUE TO EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY. EVEN OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS...CEILINGS ARE A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS WELL.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 031805
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
105 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC TO SAY THE LEAST. CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT HIGHER IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THOUGH...AS MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM INDIANA TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL APPROACH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT EASTWARD BEFORE THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
CIRCULATING AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN EXCELLENT SOURCE OF MOISTURE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE AFOREMENTIONED SETUP SHOULD LEAD TO A CORRIDOR OF
PERSISTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT SAGS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
EVIDENCE OF THIS IN THE FORM OF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
CURRENTLY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AND
FLIRTING WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT...POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-20. PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND A SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUPPORTIVE OF TRAINING ECHOES COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WILL INTRODUCE A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING INTO THE HWO THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH AND HIGH POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. THE MAIN ZONE OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURE CREATED A DIFFICULT
FORECAST FROM AN AVIATION PERSPECTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MUCH
OF THE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS NEXT TO USELESS...AS IT SHOWS
RAIN CHANCES AS WAY TOO LOW FOR PLACES LIKE BHM AND ANB THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE INDEED
STARTED TO REFORM RIGHT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...VERY NEAR BHM
OVER TO ANB/ASN. THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR THAT BOUNDARY TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING UP
ALONG IT...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING TCL AND EET ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS. HARD TO GET A GRASP UP HOW FAR SOUTH THE
RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY GET...HOWEVER. I INCLUDED A VCSH AT MGM TO AT
LEAST SHOW THE POSSIBILITY THERE. LEFT IT OUT AT TOI DUE TO EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY. EVEN OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS...CEILINGS ARE A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS WELL.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 031152
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
652 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC TO SAY THE LEAST. CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT HIGHER IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THOUGH...AS MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM INDIANA TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL APPROACH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT EASTWARD BEFORE THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
CIRCULATING AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN EXCELLENT SOURCE OF MOISTURE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE AFOREMENTIONED SETUP SHOULD LEAD TO A CORRIDOR OF
PERSISTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT SAGS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
EVIDENCE OF THIS IN THE FORM OF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
CURRENTLY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AND
FLIRTING WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT...POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-20. PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND A SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUPPORTIVE OF TRAINING ECHOES COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WILL INTRODUCE A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING INTO THE HWO THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH AND HIGH POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. THE MAIN ZONE OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ROUND 1 IS NOW COMING THROUGH BHM...ANB...AND ASN AS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS SLIDING SOUTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN BULK OF RAIN AND
STORMS. THE NAM HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHORT TERM SO
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD IT. THE MAIN FLIGHT ISSUES WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT
THE NORTHERN SITES AFTER 03Z...SO THAT IS WHERE THE LOWEST FLIGHT
CATEGORIES ARE. TO THE SOUTH...MGM AND TOI MAY NOT SEE ANY RAIN
AT ALL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     81  69  82  69  83 / 100  80  70  50  60
ANNISTON    82  70  84  69  83 /  90  80  70  60  60
BIRMINGHAM  83  71  84  70  84 /  90  80  70  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  87  71  84  71  87 /  60  80  70  60  60
CALERA      85  70  84  70  84 /  60  70  60  60  60
AUBURN      89  71  84  70  83 /  30  40  60  60  60
MONTGOMERY  93  73  89  72  88 /  30  40  50  50  60
TROY        92  72  87  71  87 /  20  20  50  50  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 031152
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
652 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC TO SAY THE LEAST. CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT HIGHER IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THOUGH...AS MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM INDIANA TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL APPROACH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT EASTWARD BEFORE THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
CIRCULATING AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN EXCELLENT SOURCE OF MOISTURE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE AFOREMENTIONED SETUP SHOULD LEAD TO A CORRIDOR OF
PERSISTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT SAGS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
EVIDENCE OF THIS IN THE FORM OF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
CURRENTLY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AND
FLIRTING WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT...POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-20. PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND A SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUPPORTIVE OF TRAINING ECHOES COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WILL INTRODUCE A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING INTO THE HWO THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH AND HIGH POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. THE MAIN ZONE OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ROUND 1 IS NOW COMING THROUGH BHM...ANB...AND ASN AS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS SLIDING SOUTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN BULK OF RAIN AND
STORMS. THE NAM HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHORT TERM SO
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD IT. THE MAIN FLIGHT ISSUES WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT
THE NORTHERN SITES AFTER 03Z...SO THAT IS WHERE THE LOWEST FLIGHT
CATEGORIES ARE. TO THE SOUTH...MGM AND TOI MAY NOT SEE ANY RAIN
AT ALL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     81  69  82  69  83 / 100  80  70  50  60
ANNISTON    82  70  84  69  83 /  90  80  70  60  60
BIRMINGHAM  83  71  84  70  84 /  90  80  70  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  87  71  84  71  87 /  60  80  70  60  60
CALERA      85  70  84  70  84 /  60  70  60  60  60
AUBURN      89  71  84  70  83 /  30  40  60  60  60
MONTGOMERY  93  73  89  72  88 /  30  40  50  50  60
TROY        92  72  87  71  87 /  20  20  50  50  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 030839
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
339 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC TO SAY THE LEAST. CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT HIGHER IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THOUGH...AS MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM INDIANA TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL APPROACH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT EASTWARD BEFORE THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
CIRCULATING AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN EXCELLENT SOURCE OF MOISTURE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE AFOREMENTIONED SETUP SHOULD LEAD TO A CORRIDOR OF
PERSISTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT SAGS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
EVIDENCE OF THIS IN THE FORM OF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
CURRENTLY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AND
FLIRTING WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT...POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-20. PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND A SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUPPORTIVE OF TRAINING ECHOES COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WILL INTRODUCE A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING INTO THE HWO THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH AND HIGH POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. THE MAIN ZONE OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOOKING FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. A BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT TO AROUND DAYBREAK.
THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON PATTERN
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTH NEAR
MGM AND TOI. WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  69  82  69  83 /  80  80  70  50  60
ANNISTON    87  70  84  69  83 /  60  80  70  60  60
BIRMINGHAM  88  71  84  70  84 /  60  80  70  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  84  71  87 /  60  80  70  60  60
CALERA      88  70  84  70  84 /  60  70  60  60  60
AUBURN      89  71  84  70  83 /  30  40  60  60  60
MONTGOMERY  94  73  89  72  88 /  30  40  50  50  60
TROY        93  72  87  71  87 /  20  20  50  50  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

87/88




000
FXUS64 KBMX 030839
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
339 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC TO SAY THE LEAST. CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT HIGHER IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THOUGH...AS MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM INDIANA TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL APPROACH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT EASTWARD BEFORE THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
CIRCULATING AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN EXCELLENT SOURCE OF MOISTURE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE AFOREMENTIONED SETUP SHOULD LEAD TO A CORRIDOR OF
PERSISTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT SAGS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
EVIDENCE OF THIS IN THE FORM OF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
CURRENTLY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AND
FLIRTING WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT...POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-20. PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND A SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUPPORTIVE OF TRAINING ECHOES COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WILL INTRODUCE A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING INTO THE HWO THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH AND HIGH POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. THE MAIN ZONE OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. SOMEWHAT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOOKING FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. A BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT TO AROUND DAYBREAK.
THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON PATTERN
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTH NEAR
MGM AND TOI. WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  69  82  69  83 /  80  80  70  50  60
ANNISTON    87  70  84  69  83 /  60  80  70  60  60
BIRMINGHAM  88  71  84  70  84 /  60  80  70  60  60
TUSCALOOSA  91  71  84  71  87 /  60  80  70  60  60
CALERA      88  70  84  70  84 /  60  70  60  60  60
AUBURN      89  71  84  70  83 /  30  40  60  60  60
MONTGOMERY  94  73  89  72  88 /  30  40  50  50  60
TROY        93  72  87  71  87 /  20  20  50  50  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

87/88





000
FXUS64 KBMX 030436
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1136 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR PICTURE SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
TENNESSEE SLOWLY WORKING THEIR WAY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
STATE WITH A COUPLE OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OVER THE FAR
NORTH OF ALABAMA. ONE OF THE TWO STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL
LIKELY MISS THE NORTHEAST TIP AND THE OTHER IS DETERIORATING AS IT
APPROACHES. WITH A LITTLE WHILE BEFORE THE MAIN LINE GETS HERE...
HAVE LOWERED POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGES AND PUSHED
BACK THE TIMING FOR STORMS ARRIVAL. MOST WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. IF IT DOES SO...THEN THAT WILL MEAN A SLIGHTLY
EASIER COMMUTE IN BHM METRO...BUT IT WILL BE IFFY. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AGREE WITH THIS TIMING DELAY. AS
FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...MADE ONLY A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND
THERE AND NO BIG CHANGES.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOOKING FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. A BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT TO AROUND DAYBREAK.
THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON PATTERN
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTH NEAR
MGM AND TOI. WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AND SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 030436
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1136 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR PICTURE SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
TENNESSEE SLOWLY WORKING THEIR WAY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
STATE WITH A COUPLE OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OVER THE FAR
NORTH OF ALABAMA. ONE OF THE TWO STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL
LIKELY MISS THE NORTHEAST TIP AND THE OTHER IS DETERIORATING AS IT
APPROACHES. WITH A LITTLE WHILE BEFORE THE MAIN LINE GETS HERE...
HAVE LOWERED POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGES AND PUSHED
BACK THE TIMING FOR STORMS ARRIVAL. MOST WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. IF IT DOES SO...THEN THAT WILL MEAN A SLIGHTLY
EASIER COMMUTE IN BHM METRO...BUT IT WILL BE IFFY. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AGREE WITH THIS TIMING DELAY. AS
FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...MADE ONLY A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND
THERE AND NO BIG CHANGES.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOOKING FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. A BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT TO AROUND DAYBREAK.
THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON PATTERN
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTH NEAR
MGM AND TOI. WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AND SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 030436
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1136 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR PICTURE SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
TENNESSEE SLOWLY WORKING THEIR WAY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
STATE WITH A COUPLE OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OVER THE FAR
NORTH OF ALABAMA. ONE OF THE TWO STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL
LIKELY MISS THE NORTHEAST TIP AND THE OTHER IS DETERIORATING AS IT
APPROACHES. WITH A LITTLE WHILE BEFORE THE MAIN LINE GETS HERE...
HAVE LOWERED POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGES AND PUSHED
BACK THE TIMING FOR STORMS ARRIVAL. MOST WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. IF IT DOES SO...THEN THAT WILL MEAN A SLIGHTLY
EASIER COMMUTE IN BHM METRO...BUT IT WILL BE IFFY. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AGREE WITH THIS TIMING DELAY. AS
FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...MADE ONLY A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND
THERE AND NO BIG CHANGES.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOOKING FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. A BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT TO AROUND DAYBREAK.
THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON PATTERN
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTH NEAR
MGM AND TOI. WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AND SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 030436
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1136 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR PICTURE SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
TENNESSEE SLOWLY WORKING THEIR WAY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
STATE WITH A COUPLE OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OVER THE FAR
NORTH OF ALABAMA. ONE OF THE TWO STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL
LIKELY MISS THE NORTHEAST TIP AND THE OTHER IS DETERIORATING AS IT
APPROACHES. WITH A LITTLE WHILE BEFORE THE MAIN LINE GETS HERE...
HAVE LOWERED POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGES AND PUSHED
BACK THE TIMING FOR STORMS ARRIVAL. MOST WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. IF IT DOES SO...THEN THAT WILL MEAN A SLIGHTLY
EASIER COMMUTE IN BHM METRO...BUT IT WILL BE IFFY. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AGREE WITH THIS TIMING DELAY. AS
FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...MADE ONLY A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND
THERE AND NO BIG CHANGES.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOOKING FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. A BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT TO AROUND DAYBREAK.
THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON PATTERN
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTH NEAR
MGM AND TOI. WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AND SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 030321 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1021 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR PICTURE SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
TENNESSEE SLOWLY WORKING THEIR WAY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
STATE WITH A COUPLE OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OVER THE FAR
NORTH OF ALABAMA. ONE OF THE TWO STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL
LIKELY MISS THE NORTHEAST TIP AND THE OTHER IS DETERIORATING AS IT
APPROACHES. WITH A LITTLE WHILE BEFORE THE MAIN LINE GETS HERE...
HAVE LOWERED POPS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGES AND PUSHED
BACK THE TIMING FOR STORMS ARRIVAL. MOST WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. IF IT DOES SO...THEN THAT WILL MEAN A SLIGHTLY
EASIER COMMUTE IN BHM METRO...BUT IT WILL BE IFFY. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AGREE WITH THIS TIMING DELAY. AS
FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...MADE ONLY A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND
THERE AND NO BIG CHANGES.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT WITH SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP SO NO VIS ISSUES. MODELS ARE PERFORMING
POORLY WITH RAINFALL SO BEING VERY BASIC WITH RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST
IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT PATTERN OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH
MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION AT ANYTIME OF THE DAY BUT
NOTHING CURRENTLY AROUND THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 12 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AND SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 307 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND PARCEL
BUOYANCY VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG...VERY LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD...AND THE RADAR IS ALMOST
RAIN FREE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT MID AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT
CAN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH WIND GUSTS. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN
RAIN FREE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP A ZONAL BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS FAR
NORTH ALABAMA BY 9PM THIS EVENING...WITH THE ACTIVITY SINKING
SOUTHWARD TO THE NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO SHOWING A BAND OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN
STORM INTENSITY AND CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH ALABAMA.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROF
WILL PIVOT SOUTHWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL NUDGE THE ZONE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SOUTHWARD...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. BY NEXT WEEK THE MAIN TROF
WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA. THE
ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THAN THE GFS MODEL. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF FORECASTING LOWER RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT AS DRY AS THE EURO MODEL.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  85  70  82  69 /  60  60  60  70  50
ANNISTON    69  85  70  82  70 /  40  60  60  60  40
BIRMINGHAM  73  88  72  83  71 /  30  60  60  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  90  72  85  72 /  20  40  60  60  50
CALERA      72  88  71  84  71 /  20  50  60  50  40
AUBURN      72  87  72  85  72 /  20  30  40  40  30
MONTGOMERY  72  92  73  89  72 /  20  20  40  40  40
TROY        72  92  72  90  72 /  20  20  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/88/58




000
FXUS64 KBMX 022355
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
655 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND PARCEL
BUOYANCY VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG...VERY LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD...AND THE RADAR IS ALMOST
RAIN FREE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT MID AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT
CAN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH WIND GUSTS. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN
RAIN FREE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP A ZONAL BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS FAR
NORTH ALABAMA BY 9PM THIS EVENING...WITH THE ACTIVITY SINKING
SOUTHWARD TO THE NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO SHOWING A BAND OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN
STORM INTENSITY AND CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH ALABAMA.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROF
WILL PIVOT SOUTHWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL NUDGE THE ZONE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SOUTHWARD...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. BY NEXT WEEK THE MAIN TROF
WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA. THE
ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THAN THE GFS MODEL. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF FORECASTING LOWER RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT AS DRY AS THE EURO MODEL.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT WITH SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP SO NO VIS ISSUES. MODELS ARE PERFORMING
POORLY WITH RAINFALL SO BEING VERY BASIC WITH RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST
IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT PATTERN OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH
MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION AT ANYTIME OF THE DAY BUT
NOTHING CURRENTLY AROUND THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 12 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AND SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 022355
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
655 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND PARCEL
BUOYANCY VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG...VERY LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD...AND THE RADAR IS ALMOST
RAIN FREE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT MID AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT
CAN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH WIND GUSTS. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN
RAIN FREE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP A ZONAL BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS FAR
NORTH ALABAMA BY 9PM THIS EVENING...WITH THE ACTIVITY SINKING
SOUTHWARD TO THE NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO SHOWING A BAND OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN
STORM INTENSITY AND CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH ALABAMA.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROF
WILL PIVOT SOUTHWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL NUDGE THE ZONE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SOUTHWARD...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. BY NEXT WEEK THE MAIN TROF
WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA. THE
ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THAN THE GFS MODEL. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF FORECASTING LOWER RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT AS DRY AS THE EURO MODEL.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT WITH SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP SO NO VIS ISSUES. MODELS ARE PERFORMING
POORLY WITH RAINFALL SO BEING VERY BASIC WITH RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST
IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT PATTERN OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH
MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION AT ANYTIME OF THE DAY BUT
NOTHING CURRENTLY AROUND THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 12 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AND SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 022007
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND PARCEL
BUOYANCY VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG...VERY LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD...AND THE RADAR IS ALMOST
RAIN FREE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT MID AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT
CAN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH WIND GUSTS. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN
RAIN FREE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP A ZONAL BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS FAR
NORTH ALABAMA BY 9PM THIS EVENING...WITH THE ACTIVITY SINKING
SOUTHWARD TO THE NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO SHOWING A BAND OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN
STORM INTENSITY AND CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH ALABAMA.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROF
WILL PIVOT SOUTHWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL NUDGE THE ZONE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SOUTHWARD...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. BY NEXT WEEK THE MAIN TROF
WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA. THE
ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THAN THE GFS MODEL. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF FORECASTING LOWER RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT AS DRY AS THE EURO MODEL.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FOLLOWING LOW CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL TERMINALS ARE REPORTING VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED. THEREFORE VCTS HAS BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE AND HAVE ADDED IN VCTS FOR THE PLANNING PERIOD.
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER
06Z. SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT OR ABOVE 10
KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.

56/GDG


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AND SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  85  70  82  69 /  70  60  60  70  50
ANNISTON    71  85  70  82  70 /  50  60  60  60  40
BIRMINGHAM  73  88  72  83  71 /  50  60  60  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  90  72  85  72 /  40  40  60  60  50
CALERA      73  88  71  84  71 /  40  50  60  50  40
AUBURN      72  87  72  85  72 /  20  30  40  40  30
MONTGOMERY  72  92  73  89  72 /  20  20  40  40  40
TROY        72  92  72  90  72 /  20  20  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 021842
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
142 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MESSY PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS MORNING. ZONAL
FLOW EXTENDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE
SATELLITE BASED SOUNDER IS ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS ALABAMA. SOME WEAK FORCING IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER TEXAS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN CONVECTION ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FOLLOWING LOW CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL TERMINALS ARE REPORTING VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED. THEREFORE VCTS HAS BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE AND HAVE ADDED IN VCTS FOR THE PLANNING PERIOD.
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER
06Z. SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT OR ABOVE 10
KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  85  70  83  69 /  70  60  50  60  50
ANNISTON    71  85  70  83  70 /  50  60  50  60  40
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  72  84  71 /  50  60  50  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  72  87  72 /  40  50  50  60  50
CALERA      73  87  71  85  71 /  40  50  40  50  40
AUBURN      72  87  72  86  72 /  30  30  30  40  30
MONTGOMERY  72  89  73  88  72 /  20  30  30  40  40
TROY        72  90  72  89  72 /  20  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021842
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
142 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MESSY PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS MORNING. ZONAL
FLOW EXTENDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE
SATELLITE BASED SOUNDER IS ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS ALABAMA. SOME WEAK FORCING IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER TEXAS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN CONVECTION ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FOLLOWING LOW CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL TERMINALS ARE REPORTING VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED. THEREFORE VCTS HAS BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE AND HAVE ADDED IN VCTS FOR THE PLANNING PERIOD.
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER
06Z. SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT OR ABOVE 10
KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  85  70  83  69 /  70  60  50  60  50
ANNISTON    71  85  70  83  70 /  50  60  50  60  40
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  72  84  71 /  50  60  50  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  72  87  72 /  40  50  50  60  50
CALERA      73  87  71  85  71 /  40  50  40  50  40
AUBURN      72  87  72  86  72 /  30  30  30  40  30
MONTGOMERY  72  89  73  88  72 /  20  30  30  40  40
TROY        72  90  72  89  72 /  20  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 021842
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
142 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MESSY PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS MORNING. ZONAL
FLOW EXTENDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE
SATELLITE BASED SOUNDER IS ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS ALABAMA. SOME WEAK FORCING IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER TEXAS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN CONVECTION ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FOLLOWING LOW CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL TERMINALS ARE REPORTING VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED. THEREFORE VCTS HAS BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE AND HAVE ADDED IN VCTS FOR THE PLANNING PERIOD.
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER
06Z. SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT OR ABOVE 10
KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  85  70  83  69 /  70  60  50  60  50
ANNISTON    71  85  70  83  70 /  50  60  50  60  40
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  72  84  71 /  50  60  50  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  72  87  72 /  40  50  50  60  50
CALERA      73  87  71  85  71 /  40  50  40  50  40
AUBURN      72  87  72  86  72 /  30  30  30  40  30
MONTGOMERY  72  89  73  88  72 /  20  30  30  40  40
TROY        72  90  72  89  72 /  20  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021842
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
142 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MESSY PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS MORNING. ZONAL
FLOW EXTENDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE
SATELLITE BASED SOUNDER IS ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS ALABAMA. SOME WEAK FORCING IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER TEXAS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN CONVECTION ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FOLLOWING LOW CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL TERMINALS ARE REPORTING VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED. THEREFORE VCTS HAS BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE AND HAVE ADDED IN VCTS FOR THE PLANNING PERIOD.
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER
06Z. SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT OR ABOVE 10
KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  85  70  83  69 /  70  60  50  60  50
ANNISTON    71  85  70  83  70 /  50  60  50  60  40
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  72  84  71 /  50  60  50  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  88  72  87  72 /  40  50  50  60  50
CALERA      73  87  71  85  71 /  40  50  40  50  40
AUBURN      72  87  72  86  72 /  30  30  30  40  30
MONTGOMERY  72  89  73  88  72 /  20  30  30  40  40
TROY        72  90  72  89  72 /  20  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 021455
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
955 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MESSY PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS MORNING. ZONAL
FLOW EXTENDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE
SATELLITE BASED SOUNDER IS ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS ALABAMA. SOME WEAK FORCING IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER TEXAS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN CONVECTION ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CIGS ARE A BIT MESSY THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN
IFR/MVFR/VFR AT SOME OF THE NORTHERN SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CIGS RISE INTO THE MVFR AND VFR RANGE.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND IMPACTS TO ANY GIVEN TAF SITE. A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING...BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF
STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

FRUSTRATIONS CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT`S BEEN A REAL STRUGGLE TO DECIDE
EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS EACH DAY...AND THIS
TRANSLATES TO SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH/LOW TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY THE
ALWAYS TRICKY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE FORECAST
AREA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTH. JUST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PREVALENT WITH THE STORMS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF TRAINING OF STORMS
OCCURS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  70  85  70  83 /  40  60  60  50  60
ANNISTON    86  71  85  70  83 /  40  60  60  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  88  73  87  72  84 /  40  60  60  50  60
TUSCALOOSA  90  72  88  72  87 /  40  40  50  50  60
CALERA      89  73  87  71  85 /  40  40  50  40  50
AUBURN      87  72  87  72  86 /  60  30  30  30  40
MONTGOMERY  89  72  89  73  88 /  60  30  30  30  40
TROY        88  72  90  72  89 /  60  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021455
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
955 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MESSY PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS MORNING. ZONAL
FLOW EXTENDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE
SATELLITE BASED SOUNDER IS ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS ALABAMA. SOME WEAK FORCING IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER TEXAS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN CONVECTION ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CIGS ARE A BIT MESSY THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN
IFR/MVFR/VFR AT SOME OF THE NORTHERN SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CIGS RISE INTO THE MVFR AND VFR RANGE.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND IMPACTS TO ANY GIVEN TAF SITE. A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING...BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF
STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

FRUSTRATIONS CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT`S BEEN A REAL STRUGGLE TO DECIDE
EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS EACH DAY...AND THIS
TRANSLATES TO SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH/LOW TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY THE
ALWAYS TRICKY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE FORECAST
AREA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTH. JUST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PREVALENT WITH THE STORMS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF TRAINING OF STORMS
OCCURS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  70  85  70  83 /  40  60  60  50  60
ANNISTON    86  71  85  70  83 /  40  60  60  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  88  73  87  72  84 /  40  60  60  50  60
TUSCALOOSA  90  72  88  72  87 /  40  40  50  50  60
CALERA      89  73  87  71  85 /  40  40  50  40  50
AUBURN      87  72  87  72  86 /  60  30  30  30  40
MONTGOMERY  89  72  89  73  88 /  60  30  30  30  40
TROY        88  72  90  72  89 /  60  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 021455
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
955 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MESSY PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS MORNING. ZONAL
FLOW EXTENDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE
SATELLITE BASED SOUNDER IS ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS ALABAMA. SOME WEAK FORCING IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER TEXAS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN CONVECTION ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CIGS ARE A BIT MESSY THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN
IFR/MVFR/VFR AT SOME OF THE NORTHERN SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CIGS RISE INTO THE MVFR AND VFR RANGE.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND IMPACTS TO ANY GIVEN TAF SITE. A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING...BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF
STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

FRUSTRATIONS CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT`S BEEN A REAL STRUGGLE TO DECIDE
EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS EACH DAY...AND THIS
TRANSLATES TO SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH/LOW TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY THE
ALWAYS TRICKY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE FORECAST
AREA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTH. JUST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PREVALENT WITH THE STORMS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF TRAINING OF STORMS
OCCURS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  70  85  70  83 /  40  60  60  50  60
ANNISTON    86  71  85  70  83 /  40  60  60  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  88  73  87  72  84 /  40  60  60  50  60
TUSCALOOSA  90  72  88  72  87 /  40  40  50  50  60
CALERA      89  73  87  71  85 /  40  40  50  40  50
AUBURN      87  72  87  72  86 /  60  30  30  30  40
MONTGOMERY  89  72  89  73  88 /  60  30  30  30  40
TROY        88  72  90  72  89 /  60  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 021455
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
955 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A MESSY PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS MORNING. ZONAL
FLOW EXTENDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE
SATELLITE BASED SOUNDER IS ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS ALABAMA. SOME WEAK FORCING IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER TEXAS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN CONVECTION ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WERE ADJUSTED TO KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CIGS ARE A BIT MESSY THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN
IFR/MVFR/VFR AT SOME OF THE NORTHERN SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CIGS RISE INTO THE MVFR AND VFR RANGE.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND IMPACTS TO ANY GIVEN TAF SITE. A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING...BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF
STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 637 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

FRUSTRATIONS CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT`S BEEN A REAL STRUGGLE TO DECIDE
EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS EACH DAY...AND THIS
TRANSLATES TO SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH/LOW TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY THE
ALWAYS TRICKY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE FORECAST
AREA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTH. JUST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PREVALENT WITH THE STORMS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF TRAINING OF STORMS
OCCURS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  70  85  70  83 /  40  60  60  50  60
ANNISTON    86  71  85  70  83 /  40  60  60  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  88  73  87  72  84 /  40  60  60  50  60
TUSCALOOSA  90  72  88  72  87 /  40  40  50  50  60
CALERA      89  73  87  71  85 /  40  40  50  40  50
AUBURN      87  72  87  72  86 /  60  30  30  30  40
MONTGOMERY  89  72  89  73  88 /  60  30  30  30  40
TROY        88  72  90  72  89 /  60  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 021137
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FRUSTRATIONS CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT`S BEEN A REAL STRUGGLE TO DECIDE
EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS EACH DAY...AND THIS
TRANSLATES TO SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH/LOW TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY THE
ALWAYS TRICKY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE FORECAST
AREA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTH. JUST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PREVALENT WITH THE STORMS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF TRAINING OF STORMS
OCCURS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CIGS ARE A BIT MESSY THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN
IFR/MVFR/VFR AT SOME OF THE NORTHERN SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CIGS RISE INTO THE MVFR AND VFR RANGE.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND IMPACTS TO ANY GIVEN TAF SITE. A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING...BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF
STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 021137
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FRUSTRATIONS CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT`S BEEN A REAL STRUGGLE TO DECIDE
EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS EACH DAY...AND THIS
TRANSLATES TO SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH/LOW TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY THE
ALWAYS TRICKY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE FORECAST
AREA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTH. JUST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PREVALENT WITH THE STORMS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF TRAINING OF STORMS
OCCURS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CIGS ARE A BIT MESSY THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN
IFR/MVFR/VFR AT SOME OF THE NORTHERN SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE CIGS RISE INTO THE MVFR AND VFR RANGE.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND IMPACTS TO ANY GIVEN TAF SITE. A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING...BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF
STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 020858
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FRUSTRATIONS CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT`S BEEN A REAL STRUGGLE TO
DECIDE EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS EACH DAY...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH/LOW TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY
THE ALWAYS TRICKY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE
FORECAST AREA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTH. JUST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PREVALENT WITH THE STORMS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF TRAINING OF
STORMS OCCURS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION THAT BLEW UP OVER EET HAS NOW SHIFTED TOWARDS AUO THIS
EVENING. OUTFLOW HAS DRIFTED THROUGH MGM AND IS APPROACHING TOI
BUT NOTHING HAS DEVELOPED ON THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AREA HAS STABILIZED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAINS. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER VERY MOIST. WINDS GENERALLY A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

FOR TOMORROW...MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING BUT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL GIVE THE AREA A GOOD SHOT OF
REDEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  70  85  70  83 /  70  60  60  50  60
ANNISTON    85  71  85  70  83 /  70  60  60  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  87  73  87  72  84 /  60  60  60  50  60
TUSCALOOSA  89  72  88  72  87 /  60  40  50  50  60
CALERA      88  73  87  71  85 /  60  40  50  40  50
AUBURN      85  72  87  72  86 /  60  30  30  30  40
MONTGOMERY  90  72  89  73  88 /  60  30  30  30  40
TROY        90  72  90  72  89 /  60  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 020858
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FRUSTRATIONS CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT`S BEEN A REAL STRUGGLE TO
DECIDE EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE TO PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS EACH DAY...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH/LOW TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY
THE ALWAYS TRICKY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE
FORECAST AREA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE LULL IN
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE
NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTH. JUST AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
PWATS WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
PREVALENT WITH THE STORMS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF TRAINING OF
STORMS OCCURS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AT OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

19

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION THAT BLEW UP OVER EET HAS NOW SHIFTED TOWARDS AUO THIS
EVENING. OUTFLOW HAS DRIFTED THROUGH MGM AND IS APPROACHING TOI
BUT NOTHING HAS DEVELOPED ON THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AREA HAS STABILIZED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAINS. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER VERY MOIST. WINDS GENERALLY A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

FOR TOMORROW...MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING BUT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL GIVE THE AREA A GOOD SHOT OF
REDEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF A BIT
NEXT WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  70  85  70  83 /  70  60  60  50  60
ANNISTON    85  71  85  70  83 /  70  60  60  50  60
BIRMINGHAM  87  73  87  72  84 /  60  60  60  50  60
TUSCALOOSA  89  72  88  72  87 /  60  40  50  50  60
CALERA      88  73  87  71  85 /  60  40  50  40  50
AUBURN      85  72  87  72  86 /  60  30  30  30  40
MONTGOMERY  90  72  89  73  88 /  60  30  30  30  40
TROY        90  72  90  72  89 /  60  30  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 020441
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THAT IS ROUND ONE. A SECOND COMPLEX
THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOWN UP ACROSS MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE MAY MAKE IT HERE BEFORE 7 AM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...OR POSSIBLY SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE SYSTEM. SO HAVE
HIGHER POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
6Z...THEN A BREAK THROUGH 9Z...WITH HIGHER CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE 2ND SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CARRY ON INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION
REMAINS HOW EARLY WILL IT ARRIVE TO THE CWA. CONVECTION THIS
EVENING HAS HELPED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST COOL SOME WITH
LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. SO HAVE TWEAKED DOWN A TAD TO
ACCOMMODATE...BUT NOT TOO MUCH BECAUSE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD
COVER EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM WHERE WE ARE
NOW.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION THAT BLEW UP OVER EET HAS NOW SHIFTED TOWARDS AUO THIS
EVENING. OUTFLOW HAS DRIFTED THROUGH MGM AND IS APPROACHING TOI
BUT NOTHING HAS DEVELOPED ON THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AREA HAS STABILIZED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAINS. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER VERY MOIST. WINDS GENERALLY A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

FOR TOMORROW...MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING BUT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL GIVE THE AREA A GOOD SHOT OF
REDEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBMX 020441
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THAT IS ROUND ONE. A SECOND COMPLEX
THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOWN UP ACROSS MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE MAY MAKE IT HERE BEFORE 7 AM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...OR POSSIBLY SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE SYSTEM. SO HAVE
HIGHER POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
6Z...THEN A BREAK THROUGH 9Z...WITH HIGHER CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE 2ND SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CARRY ON INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION
REMAINS HOW EARLY WILL IT ARRIVE TO THE CWA. CONVECTION THIS
EVENING HAS HELPED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST COOL SOME WITH
LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. SO HAVE TWEAKED DOWN A TAD TO
ACCOMMODATE...BUT NOT TOO MUCH BECAUSE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD
COVER EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM WHERE WE ARE
NOW.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION THAT BLEW UP OVER EET HAS NOW SHIFTED TOWARDS AUO THIS
EVENING. OUTFLOW HAS DRIFTED THROUGH MGM AND IS APPROACHING TOI
BUT NOTHING HAS DEVELOPED ON THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AREA HAS STABILIZED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAINS. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER VERY MOIST. WINDS GENERALLY A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

FOR TOMORROW...MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING BUT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL GIVE THE AREA A GOOD SHOT OF
REDEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 020441
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THAT IS ROUND ONE. A SECOND COMPLEX
THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOWN UP ACROSS MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE MAY MAKE IT HERE BEFORE 7 AM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...OR POSSIBLY SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE SYSTEM. SO HAVE
HIGHER POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
6Z...THEN A BREAK THROUGH 9Z...WITH HIGHER CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE 2ND SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CARRY ON INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION
REMAINS HOW EARLY WILL IT ARRIVE TO THE CWA. CONVECTION THIS
EVENING HAS HELPED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST COOL SOME WITH
LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. SO HAVE TWEAKED DOWN A TAD TO
ACCOMMODATE...BUT NOT TOO MUCH BECAUSE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD
COVER EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM WHERE WE ARE
NOW.

08/MK


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION THAT BLEW UP OVER EET HAS NOW SHIFTED TOWARDS AUO THIS
EVENING. OUTFLOW HAS DRIFTED THROUGH MGM AND IS APPROACHING TOI
BUT NOTHING HAS DEVELOPED ON THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT MOST OF THE
AREA HAS STABILIZED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAINS. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER VERY MOIST. WINDS GENERALLY A
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

FOR TOMORROW...MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING BUT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL GIVE THE AREA A GOOD SHOT OF
REDEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR DEVELOPMENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KTS.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBMX 020417 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1117 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THAT IS ROUND ONE. A SECOND COMPLEX
THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOWN UP ACROSS MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE MAY MAKE IT HERE BEFORE 7 AM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...OR POSSIBLY SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE SYSTEM. SO HAVE
HIGHER POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
6Z...THEN A BREAK THROUGH 9Z...WITH HIGHER CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE 2ND SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CARRY ON INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION
REMAINS HOW EARLY WILL IT ARRIVE TO THE CWA. CONVECTION THIS
EVENING HAS HELPED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST COOL SOME WITH
LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. SO HAVE TWEAKED DOWN A TAD TO
ACCOMMODATE...BUT NOT TOO MUCH BECAUSE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD
COVER EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM WHERE WE ARE
NOW.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND THE
STORMS BUT A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE WEAKENING TREND AT SUNSET.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DECAYING MCS OVER
TENNESSEE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY
EVENING AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER MCS
IS LIKELY TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST LOW WILL FEED INSTABILITY INTO ANY MCS THAT COMES DOWN
THE PIKE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEVERE THREAT MAY COME ON FRIDAY AS MODELS
SHOW A INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER NORTH ALABAMA AS A
SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL PRODUCE WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  84  70  86  70 /  60  70  60  60  50
ANNISTON    68  85  71  86  70 /  60  70  60  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  69  87  73  88  72 /  60  60  50  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  89  72  89  72 /  30  50  40  50  50
CALERA      69  88  73  88  71 /  60  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      67  85  72  88  72 /  60  60  40  40  30
MONTGOMERY  73  90  72  90  73 /  30  40  20  30  30
TROY        73  90  72  91  72 /  30  40  20  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/88/58




000
FXUS64 KBMX 020417 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1117 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THAT IS ROUND ONE. A SECOND COMPLEX
THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOWN UP ACROSS MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE MAY MAKE IT HERE BEFORE 7 AM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...OR POSSIBLY SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE SYSTEM. SO HAVE
HIGHER POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
6Z...THEN A BREAK THROUGH 9Z...WITH HIGHER CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE 2ND SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CARRY ON INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION
REMAINS HOW EARLY WILL IT ARRIVE TO THE CWA. CONVECTION THIS
EVENING HAS HELPED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST COOL SOME WITH
LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. SO HAVE TWEAKED DOWN A TAD TO
ACCOMMODATE...BUT NOT TOO MUCH BECAUSE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD
COVER EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM WHERE WE ARE
NOW.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND THE
STORMS BUT A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE WEAKENING TREND AT SUNSET.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DECAYING MCS OVER
TENNESSEE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY
EVENING AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER MCS
IS LIKELY TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST LOW WILL FEED INSTABILITY INTO ANY MCS THAT COMES DOWN
THE PIKE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEVERE THREAT MAY COME ON FRIDAY AS MODELS
SHOW A INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER NORTH ALABAMA AS A
SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL PRODUCE WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  84  70  86  70 /  60  70  60  60  50
ANNISTON    68  85  71  86  70 /  60  70  60  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  69  87  73  88  72 /  60  60  50  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  89  72  89  72 /  30  50  40  50  50
CALERA      69  88  73  88  71 /  60  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      67  85  72  88  72 /  60  60  40  40  30
MONTGOMERY  73  90  72  90  73 /  30  40  20  30  30
TROY        73  90  72  91  72 /  30  40  20  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/88/58





000
FXUS64 KBMX 020417 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1117 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THAT IS ROUND ONE. A SECOND COMPLEX
THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOWN UP ACROSS MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE MAY MAKE IT HERE BEFORE 7 AM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...OR POSSIBLY SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE SYSTEM. SO HAVE
HIGHER POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
6Z...THEN A BREAK THROUGH 9Z...WITH HIGHER CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE 2ND SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CARRY ON INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION
REMAINS HOW EARLY WILL IT ARRIVE TO THE CWA. CONVECTION THIS
EVENING HAS HELPED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST COOL SOME WITH
LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. SO HAVE TWEAKED DOWN A TAD TO
ACCOMMODATE...BUT NOT TOO MUCH BECAUSE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD
COVER EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM WHERE WE ARE
NOW.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND THE
STORMS BUT A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE WEAKENING TREND AT SUNSET.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DECAYING MCS OVER
TENNESSEE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY
EVENING AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER MCS
IS LIKELY TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST LOW WILL FEED INSTABILITY INTO ANY MCS THAT COMES DOWN
THE PIKE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEVERE THREAT MAY COME ON FRIDAY AS MODELS
SHOW A INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER NORTH ALABAMA AS A
SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL PRODUCE WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  84  70  86  70 /  60  70  60  60  50
ANNISTON    68  85  71  86  70 /  60  70  60  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  69  87  73  88  72 /  60  60  50  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  89  72  89  72 /  30  50  40  50  50
CALERA      69  88  73  88  71 /  60  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      67  85  72  88  72 /  60  60  40  40  30
MONTGOMERY  73  90  72  90  73 /  30  40  20  30  30
TROY        73  90  72  91  72 /  30  40  20  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/88/58




000
FXUS64 KBMX 020417 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1117 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THAT IS ROUND ONE. A SECOND COMPLEX
THAT IS CURRENTLY BLOWN UP ACROSS MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE MAY MAKE IT HERE BEFORE 7 AM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...OR POSSIBLY SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE SYSTEM. SO HAVE
HIGHER POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
6Z...THEN A BREAK THROUGH 9Z...WITH HIGHER CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE 2ND SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CARRY ON INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION
REMAINS HOW EARLY WILL IT ARRIVE TO THE CWA. CONVECTION THIS
EVENING HAS HELPED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST COOL SOME WITH
LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. SO HAVE TWEAKED DOWN A TAD TO
ACCOMMODATE...BUT NOT TOO MUCH BECAUSE WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD
COVER EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM WHERE WE ARE
NOW.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND THE
STORMS BUT A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE WEAKENING TREND AT SUNSET.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DECAYING MCS OVER
TENNESSEE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY
EVENING AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER MCS
IS LIKELY TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST LOW WILL FEED INSTABILITY INTO ANY MCS THAT COMES DOWN
THE PIKE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEVERE THREAT MAY COME ON FRIDAY AS MODELS
SHOW A INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER NORTH ALABAMA AS A
SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL PRODUCE WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  84  70  86  70 /  60  70  60  60  50
ANNISTON    68  85  71  86  70 /  60  70  60  60  50
BIRMINGHAM  69  87  73  88  72 /  60  60  50  60  50
TUSCALOOSA  72  89  72  89  72 /  30  50  40  50  50
CALERA      69  88  73  88  71 /  60  60  40  50  40
AUBURN      67  85  72  88  72 /  60  60  40  40  30
MONTGOMERY  73  90  72  90  73 /  30  40  20  30  30
TROY        73  90  72  91  72 /  30  40  20  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/88/58





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