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000
FXUS65 KBOI 241548
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
948 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT TODAY. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIP EXTENDS FROM THE STEENS MOUNTAIN TO GARDEN VALLEY. A DRIER
AIR MASS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES HAVE ENTERED SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER AND THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY. THE DRIER AIR MASS AND CLEARING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AS
WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-15 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS MOST OF
SE OREGON/SW IDAHO EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DUE TO LINGERING
CLOUDS AND PRECIP. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...THIS MORNING...WEST AND NORTH OF KBOI AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR. EAST AND
SOUTH OF KBOI VFR WITH AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST AND NORTH OF KBOI IMPROVING WITH RAIN ENDING AND
CLOUDS DECREASING FROM THE SOUTH. VFR TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR PATCHES
OF VALLEY FOG BY 06Z. EAST AND SOUTH OF KBOI CONTINUED VFR.
SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS THIS MORNING AND 5-15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 35 KTS AT 10K FT
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RAIN /SNOW ABOVE 7500/
NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL AXIS THAT AT 3 AM EXTENDED FROM ROME
OREGON TO JEROME IDAHO...WILL LIFT NORTH OF BOISE AROUND 6
AM...BAKER AND MCCALL AROUND 3 PM...AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MID AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE THE SERVICE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING A SMALL THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO WEST HARNEY COUNTY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH...FRIDAY...PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO AROUND 5000 FEET. MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS
UP BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL KEEP COLDER AIR AT HIGH
ELEVATIONS...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO UNDER 5000 FEET.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER...THIS
FORCES MOIST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AND FOR A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS SPLIT AFTER THURSDAY CONCERNING
THE BUILDING OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE AND
MUCH DRIER WITH THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY JET TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE
GFS PLACES THE MOIST UPPER JET OVER THE REGION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
FURTHER EAST WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODEL PREDICTABILITY CHARTS FAVORED THE DRIER ECMWF
SOLUTION BUT KEPT CLIMO POPS FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JS





000
FXUS65 KBOI 240937
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
337 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RAIN /SNOW ABOVE 7500/
NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL AXIS THAT AT 3 AM EXTENDED FROM ROME
OREGON TO JEROME IDAHO...WILL LIFT NORTH OF BOISE AROUND 6
AM...BAKER AND MCCALL AROUND 3 PM...AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MID AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE THE SERVICE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING A SMALL THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO WEST HARNEY COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH...FRIDAY...PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO AROUND 5000 FEET. MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS
UP BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL KEEP COLDER AIR AT HIGH
ELEVATIONS...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO UNDER 5000 FEET.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER...THIS
FORCES MOIST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AND FOR A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS SPLIT AFTER THURSDAY CONCERNING
THE BUILDING OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE AND
MUCH DRIER WITH THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY JET TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE
GFS PLACES THE MOIST UPPER JET OVER THE REGION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
FURTHER EAST WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODEL PREDICTABILITY CHARTS FAVORED THE DRIER ECMWF
SOLUTION BUT KEPT CLIMO POPS FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MOUNTAINS OBSCURED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
BECOMING VFR MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY 21Z ALL AREAS. WARM SECTOR
WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED MVFR
/IFR ABOVE 5K FT SUNDAY/ SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO SW
10-25KTS LATER TODAY AND 15-30KTS SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT SW 20 KTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 40KTS THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO 30-50KTS
SATURDAY AND SHIFTING TO WEST SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....VM





000
FXUS65 KBOI 240252
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
852 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...STARTING TO SEE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS EVENING IN RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
PICS. AS THIS TREND CONTINUES THE PRECIPITATION BAND OVER SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL SHIFT TO THE NW. THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INLINE WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24H. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF BOISE WILL BE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY IS LIKELY DONE WITH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MADE UPDATES TO
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF IN FOR POINTS FROM BOISE
SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH ALL SITES REMAINING VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMYL. KMYL IS
EXPECTED TO SEE IFR CIG/VIS OVERNIGHT WITH THE AREA BECOMING SO
MOIST FROM PERSISTENT RAIN.  SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBNO KBKE AND KMYL...THEN TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH LATER FRIDAY MORNING. MID DAY FRIDAY THROUGH MID DAY
SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15KTS AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST...WITH
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS NEAR 5000 FT MSL AND 35 TO 45 KTS NEAR 10000
FT MSL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BOISE IS ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WHICH EXTENDS TO OUR WEST...AND INCLUDES
NEARLY ALL OF SE OREGON /EXCLUDING SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY/ AND SW
IDAHO...INCLUDING THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY NORTH INTO THE UPPER
WEISER BASIN AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BOISE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...SO AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...INCLUDING MOUNTAIN HOME...JEROME...AND TWIN FALLS...WILL
SEE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BAND OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY AS THE
FLOW AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
QPF TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET. ACCUMULATING SNOWS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE UPPER TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEYS...WHILE REMAINING COOL IN THE NORTH WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 50S. A WARMER AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH ENTERS
WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A DEEP SURFACE LOW /DOWN TO AROUND 990 MB/
NEAR THE PACNW COAST WILL ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OREGON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY AND BAKER
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS /IN
THE 70S/ ACROSS THE UPPER TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON A
PROGRESSIVE UNSETTLED PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL COOL HIGHS TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO THE
5 TO 6 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE
TROUGH WILL BRING EVEN COOLER AIR AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS TO UNDER 5000 FEET WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS. ACCORDING
TO MODELS THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY FURTHER NORTH...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF OREGON. SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION IS EXPECTED TO END THE SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH





000
FXUS65 KBOI 240252
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
852 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...STARTING TO SEE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS EVENING IN RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
PICS. AS THIS TREND CONTINUES THE PRECIPITATION BAND OVER SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL SHIFT TO THE NW. THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INLINE WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24H. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF BOISE WILL BE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY IS LIKELY DONE WITH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MADE UPDATES TO
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF IN FOR POINTS FROM BOISE
SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH ALL SITES REMAINING VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMYL. KMYL IS
EXPECTED TO SEE IFR CIG/VIS OVERNIGHT WITH THE AREA BECOMING SO
MOIST FROM PERSISTENT RAIN.  SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBNO KBKE AND KMYL...THEN TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH LATER FRIDAY MORNING. MID DAY FRIDAY THROUGH MID DAY
SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15KTS AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST...WITH
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS NEAR 5000 FT MSL AND 35 TO 45 KTS NEAR 10000
FT MSL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BOISE IS ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WHICH EXTENDS TO OUR WEST...AND INCLUDES
NEARLY ALL OF SE OREGON /EXCLUDING SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY/ AND SW
IDAHO...INCLUDING THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY NORTH INTO THE UPPER
WEISER BASIN AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BOISE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...SO AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...INCLUDING MOUNTAIN HOME...JEROME...AND TWIN FALLS...WILL
SEE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BAND OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY AS THE
FLOW AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
QPF TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET. ACCUMULATING SNOWS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE UPPER TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEYS...WHILE REMAINING COOL IN THE NORTH WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 50S. A WARMER AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH ENTERS
WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A DEEP SURFACE LOW /DOWN TO AROUND 990 MB/
NEAR THE PACNW COAST WILL ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OREGON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY AND BAKER
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS /IN
THE 70S/ ACROSS THE UPPER TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON A
PROGRESSIVE UNSETTLED PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL COOL HIGHS TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO THE
5 TO 6 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE
TROUGH WILL BRING EVEN COOLER AIR AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS TO UNDER 5000 FEET WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS. ACCORDING
TO MODELS THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY FURTHER NORTH...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF OREGON. SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION IS EXPECTED TO END THE SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH





000
FXUS65 KBOI 232034
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
234 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BOISE IS ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WHICH EXTENDS TO OUR WEST...AND INCLUDES
NEARLY ALL OF SE OREGON /EXCLUDING SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY/ AND SW
IDAHO...INCLUDING THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY NORTH INTO THE UPPER
WEISER BASIN AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BOISE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...SO AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...INCLUDING MOUNTAIN HOME...JEROME...AND TWIN FALLS...WILL
SEE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BAND OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY AS THE
FLOW AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
QPF TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET. ACCUMULATING SNOWS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE UPPER TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEYS...WHILE REMAINING COOL IN THE NORTH WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 50S. A WARMER AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH ENTERS
WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A DEEP SURFACE LOW /DOWN TO AROUND 990 MB/
NEAR THE PACNW COAST WILL ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OREGON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY AND BAKER
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS /IN
THE 70S/ ACROSS THE UPPER TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON A
PROGRESSIVE UNSETTLED PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL COOL HIGHS TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO THE
5 TO 6 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE
TROUGH WILL BRING EVEN COOLER AIR AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS TO UNDER 5000 FEET WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS. ACCORDING
TO MODELS THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY FURTHER NORTH...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF OREGON. SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION IS EXPECTED TO END THE SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE AREA WEST AND NORTH OF KJER/KTWF. EXPECT
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE 7K TO 8K FT MSL. THE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN A NORTHWARD SHIFT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. SURFACE
WINDS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 5-15 KTS DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS BY 06Z. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO AROUND 30 KTS AT
10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY ON SATURDAY...THEN MORE SHOWERS
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT





000
FXUS65 KBOI 231546
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
946 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE
AND RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT-MODERATE
RAIN ENCOMPASSING SE OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO...WITH THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP NEAR MOUNTAIN HOME. THE LATEST MODELS
SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL NOT
MOVE ANY FURTHER SOUTH...THEREBY KEEPING IT DRY INTO THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS HAVE ALSO INCREASED...ESPECIALLY
IN THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO 1.5 INCH TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
7500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SNOW ABOVE 8K FT MSL. ELSEWHERE EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LOCALLY MVFR RAIN SHOWERS WEST AND
NORTH OF KJER/KTWF CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS...VARIABLE 5-15 KTS THEN MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO AROUND 30 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION DECREASING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
ENDING FRIDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY SATURDAY...THEN MORE SHOWERS
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING
PRECIPITATION AND THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE
PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE
TRENDING HIGHER WITH QPF TOTALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS DIRECTING AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER OF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PLUME WILL
STALL OUT OVER THE AREA BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD FRIDAY VIA A WARM
FRONT. THE ONLY AREAS THAT MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP ARE THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. 700 MB WINDS OF
35-45KT FAVOR TERRAIN FOCUSED PRECIPITATION...WITH MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 1.25 INCH OF QPF. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS IN
OREGON LATER THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. SNOW
LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE OVER 9000FT SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN HOME AND
7500FT MSL NORTH AND WEST OF MCCALL. BREEZY SURFACE WINDS SW
15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 35KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL DIG
AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SENDING A WARM FRONT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
THE DAY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ENDING
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RAPID CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL WITH WARMING FRIDAY AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS WINDY BUT
MILD IN A WARM SECTOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THROUGH MID-DAY
SATURDAY. OUR AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF WARM FRONTAL RAIN AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW THAT LIFTS NORTH FROM BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY COUNTIES
FRIDAY EVENING. MILD WARM SECTOR BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OVER
OREGON EARLY SAT. AND SW IDAHO MOST OF THE DAY...AHEAD OF
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONTAL SHOWERS THAT BEGIN ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BRING ABUNDANT SHEAR BUT BEST
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA SO NO
THUNDERSTORM MENTION NOW. BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY UNTIL
A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES SW IDAHO PROBABLY SATURDAY
EVENING WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN 12Z PACKAGE. BREEZY AND COOLER
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES BY. MODEL AGREEMENT IS STILL
SIMILAR WITH DRIER NW FLOW MONDAY AND WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE W
FLOW TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GFS/EC
ARE NOT IN PHASE OVER THE INLAND NW THOUGH BOTH HAVE SOME
TROUGHING OFFSHORE /AS DOES THE GEFS. SO WENT NEAR CLIMO POPS NEAR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....VM





000
FXUS65 KBOI 231011
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
411 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING
PRECIPITATION AND THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE
PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE
TRENDING HIGHER WITH QPF TOTALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS DIRECTING AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER OF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PLUME WILL
STALL OUT OVER THE AREA BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD FRIDAY VIA A WARM
FRONT. THE ONLY AREAS THAT MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP ARE THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. 700 MB WINDS OF
35-45KT FAVOR TERRAIN FOCUSED PRECIPITATION...WITH MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 1.25 INCH OF QPF. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS IN
OREGON LATER THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. SNOW
LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE OVER 9000FT SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN HOME AND
7500FT MSL NORTH AND WEST OF MCCALL. BREEZY SURFACE WINDS SW
15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 35KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL DIG
AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SENDING A WARM FRONT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
THE DAY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ENDING
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RAPID CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL WITH WARMING FRIDAY AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKS WINDY BUT
MILD IN A WARM SECTOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THROUGH MID-DAY
SATURDAY. OUR AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF WARM FRONTAL RAIN AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW THAT LIFTS NORTH FROM BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY COUNTIES
FRIDAY EVENING. MILD WARM SECTOR BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OVER
OREGON EARLY SAT. AND SW IDAHO MOST OF THE DAY...AHEAD OF
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONTAL SHOWERS THAT BEGIN ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BRING ABUNDANT SHEAR BUT BEST
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA SO NO
THUNDERSTORM MENTION NOW. BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY UNTIL
A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES SW IDAHO PROBABLY SATURDAY
EVENING WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN 12Z PACKAGE. BREEZY AND COOLER
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES BY. MODEL AGREEMENT IS STILL
SIMILAR WITH DRIER NW FLOW MONDAY AND WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE W
FLOW TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GFS/EC
ARE NOT IN PHASE OVER THE INLAND NW THOUGH BOTH HAVE SOME
TROUGHING OFFSHORE /AS DOES THE GEFS. SO WENT NEAR CLIMO POPS NEAR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR RAIN WITH SNOW ABOVE 7000FT MSL...POSSIBLE IFR IN
KMYL. GENERALLY VFR SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM REO-MUO.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY SE 5-15KT IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...BREEZY SW 15-25KT IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON...LIGHT WINDS MAGIC VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K
FEET MSL...WSW 30-45KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 230258
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
858 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...WEAK WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE MTNS OF EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND SW
IDAHO AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HAVE
INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER FORECAST ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS.  AT 02Z REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF LIGHT RAIN AT KBKE.  AFTER 09Z
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO KBKE/KBNO/KMYL AND OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.  THURSDAY MORNING THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR KMYL TO DROP TO MVFR CEILINGS.  SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...BECOMING BREEZY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 35 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A MOIST PACIFIC PLUME TO
OUR WEST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND REACH SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW
IDAHO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN STALL OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH ALONG A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOIST PLUME WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE GREATEST. THE ONLY
AREAS THAT MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP ARE THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. QPF TOTALS /FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY/ WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH /0.10/ TO A QUARTER
/O.25/ OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A QUARTER /0.25 TO HALF
/0.50/ INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 7000 FEET. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT /SOUTH OF A BURNS-BOISE-FAIRFIELD LINE/ ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH...THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW. GOOD MIXING WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES. A HEADLINE MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE WINDS DURING THAT PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BREEZY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
SNOW LEVELS FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DROP FROM OVER 10000 FEET
SATURDAY MORNING TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FORECAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING MONDAY AND A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET IN BEHIND IT. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL
A TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE IN AGAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A
MORE SSWERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON A DAILY BASIS. THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
EACH PASSING TROUGH...POSSIBLY COMING IN THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE
5000 FT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....EP/AB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 222050
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A MOIST PACIFIC PLUME TO
OUR WEST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND REACH SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW
IDAHO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN STALL OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH ALONG A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOIST PLUME WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE GREATEST. THE ONLY
AREAS THAT MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP ARE THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. QPF TOTALS /FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY/ WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH /0.10/ TO A QUARTER
/O.25/ OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A QUARTER /0.25 TO HALF
/0.50/ INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 7000 FEET. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT /SOUTH OF A BURNS-BOISE-FAIRFIELD LINE/ ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH...THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW. GOOD MIXING WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES. A HEADLINE MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE WINDS DURING THAT PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BREEZY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
SNOW LEVELS FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DROP FROM OVER 10000 FEET
SATURDAY MORNING TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FORECAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING MONDAY AND A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET IN BEHIND IT. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL
A TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE IN AGAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A
MORE SSWERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON A DAILY BASIS. THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
EACH PASSING TROUGH...POSSIBLY COMING IN THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE
5000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMYL. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NEAR KBNO KBKE AND KMYL...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR KMYL TO DROP TO MVFR CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST AT 25 TO 35 KTS BUT
WILL INCREASE TO ALMOST 50 KTS AS THURSDAY WEARS ON. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS AT
KBOI.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....EP/AB
AVIATION.....EP





000
FXUS65 KBOI 221558
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
958 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...MORNING FOG /WHICH IS LOCALLY DENSE/ IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS /INCLUDING MCCALL/ WILL BURN OFF BY NOON. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A MOIST PACIFIC PLUME AND
ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION WHICH RESIDE JUST TO OUR WEST. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG EXPECTED TO LIFT BEFORE NOON AT KMYL...OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN IMPACTING KBNO AND KBKE THURSDAY MORNING. VCSH AND LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TWO SITES BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 22/18Z. SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL ON
TRACK TO BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS ALOFT REMAINING SW AT
20 TO 30 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...INTERMOUNTAIN FOG AND
STRATUS WILL LIFT LATE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE TODAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN POPS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SE OF BOISE THROUGH MUO/TWF/JER WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN DRY. HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BKE-
MYL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WHEN BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS OREGON BLM LANDS. HAVING PRECIP FURTHER SE SEEMS TO FIT
THE UPSTREAM SATIMG ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC WHICH SHOWED THE
MOISTURE AND JET AXIS HAS SAGGED SOUTH OF 40N AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE POISED TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE LARGE GULF
OF AK LOW FROM THE ALEUTIANS TODAY THROUGH WRN NOAM
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ENERGY DUE INLAND IN THE
EXTENDED.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH WARMING AND CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE
DRY AND WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10-20 DEGREES WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL 5500 FEET MSL ON SUNDAY. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE
TROUGH EXITS. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 221558
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
958 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...MORNING FOG /WHICH IS LOCALLY DENSE/ IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS /INCLUDING MCCALL/ WILL BURN OFF BY NOON. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A MOIST PACIFIC PLUME AND
ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION WHICH RESIDE JUST TO OUR WEST. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG EXPECTED TO LIFT BEFORE NOON AT KMYL...OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN IMPACTING KBNO AND KBKE THURSDAY MORNING. VCSH AND LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TWO SITES BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 22/18Z. SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL ON
TRACK TO BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS ALOFT REMAINING SW AT
20 TO 30 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...INTERMOUNTAIN FOG AND
STRATUS WILL LIFT LATE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE TODAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN POPS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SE OF BOISE THROUGH MUO/TWF/JER WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN DRY. HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BKE-
MYL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WHEN BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS OREGON BLM LANDS. HAVING PRECIP FURTHER SE SEEMS TO FIT
THE UPSTREAM SATIMG ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC WHICH SHOWED THE
MOISTURE AND JET AXIS HAS SAGGED SOUTH OF 40N AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE POISED TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE LARGE GULF
OF AK LOW FROM THE ALEUTIANS TODAY THROUGH WRN NOAM
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ENERGY DUE INLAND IN THE
EXTENDED.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH WARMING AND CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE
DRY AND WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10-20 DEGREES WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL 5500 FEET MSL ON SUNDAY. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE
TROUGH EXITS. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 220952
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
352 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...INTERMOUNTAIN FOG AND
STRATUS WILL LIFT LATE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE TODAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN POPS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SE OF BOISE THROUGH MUO/TWF/JER WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN DRY. HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BKE-
MYL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WHEN BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS OREGON BLM LANDS. HAVING PRECIP FURTHER SE SEEMS TO FIT
THE UPSTREAM SATIMG ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC WHICH SHOWED THE
MOISTURE AND JET AXIS HAS SAGGED SOUTH OF 40N AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE POISED TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE LARGE GULF
OF AK LOW FROM THE ALEUTIANS TODAY THROUGH WRN NOAM
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ENERGY DUE INLAND IN THE
EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH WARMING AND CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE
DRY AND WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10-20 DEGREES WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL 5500 FEET MSL ON SUNDAY. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE
TROUGH EXITS. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF INTERMOUNTAIN IFR FOG/STRATUS INCLUDING KMYL
UNTIL 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING AND VFR
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH 06Z. THURSDAY EXPECT DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF MTNS OBSCURED ESPECIALLY KBNO-KBOI-KJER
NORTHWARD. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT BECOMING SE-SW 10-20 KTS BY
THURSDAY. WINDS ALOFT SW 15KTS INCREASING TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....VM





000
FXUS65 KBOI 220952
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
352 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...INTERMOUNTAIN FOG AND
STRATUS WILL LIFT LATE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE TODAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN POPS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SE OF BOISE THROUGH MUO/TWF/JER WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN DRY. HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BKE-
MYL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WHEN BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS OREGON BLM LANDS. HAVING PRECIP FURTHER SE SEEMS TO FIT
THE UPSTREAM SATIMG ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC WHICH SHOWED THE
MOISTURE AND JET AXIS HAS SAGGED SOUTH OF 40N AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE POISED TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE LARGE GULF
OF AK LOW FROM THE ALEUTIANS TODAY THROUGH WRN NOAM
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ENERGY DUE INLAND IN THE
EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH WARMING AND CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE
DRY AND WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10-20 DEGREES WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL 5500 FEET MSL ON SUNDAY. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE
TROUGH EXITS. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF INTERMOUNTAIN IFR FOG/STRATUS INCLUDING KMYL
UNTIL 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING AND VFR
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH 06Z. THURSDAY EXPECT DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF MTNS OBSCURED ESPECIALLY KBNO-KBOI-KJER
NORTHWARD. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT BECOMING SE-SW 10-20 KTS BY
THURSDAY. WINDS ALOFT SW 15KTS INCREASING TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....VM





000
FXUS65 KBOI 220243
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
843 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST OF MCCALL THIS
EVENING WILL DISSIPATE BY 06Z LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. STILL A
GOOD PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING IN MTN VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL
COVERED THOUGH DID MOVE BACK THE TIMING TO 06Z GIVEN CLOUD COVER
TRENDS ON THE IR SATELLITE. DRY AND CLEAR ELSEWHERE ACROSS SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO TONIGHT. WILL SEE TOO MUCH OF AN E-SE WIND IN
THE SNAKE VALLEY TO ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FOR MUCH OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TONIGHT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS OF IFR DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MTN
VALLEYS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 15 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS AT 10K FEET ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST WITH SHOWERS DECREASING OVER THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINS...ARE
INGREDIENTS FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE NORTHERN MTN VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
ON THURSDAY AS A MOIST SW-NE ORIENTED PACIFIC PLUME ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PLUME WILL SLOWLY ENTER SE
OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /EXCLUDING THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE PLUME IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN AND NARROW AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA...THEREBY LIMITING THE
QPF AMOUNTS. THE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. THE GUSTY W-NW WINDS IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS THROUGHOUT
SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL BE MAINLY SW-SE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT ON SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONG AND DEEP TROUGH THAT WON/T MOVE IN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...PRECIP WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT SWINGS UP INTO WASHINGTON AND NRN
IDAHO...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM UP ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND BLUSTERY AS THE
STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE SHOWERS. SUNDAY
WILL BE COOL AND BLUSTERY WITH A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE RIDGE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLOWLY STARTS TO SPIN UP OVER THE
PACIFIC IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....DG
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....SP/AB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 220243
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
843 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST OF MCCALL THIS
EVENING WILL DISSIPATE BY 06Z LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. STILL A
GOOD PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING IN MTN VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL
COVERED THOUGH DID MOVE BACK THE TIMING TO 06Z GIVEN CLOUD COVER
TRENDS ON THE IR SATELLITE. DRY AND CLEAR ELSEWHERE ACROSS SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO TONIGHT. WILL SEE TOO MUCH OF AN E-SE WIND IN
THE SNAKE VALLEY TO ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FOR MUCH OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TONIGHT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS OF IFR DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MTN
VALLEYS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 15 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS AT 10K FEET ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST WITH SHOWERS DECREASING OVER THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINS...ARE
INGREDIENTS FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE NORTHERN MTN VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
ON THURSDAY AS A MOIST SW-NE ORIENTED PACIFIC PLUME ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PLUME WILL SLOWLY ENTER SE
OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /EXCLUDING THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE PLUME IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN AND NARROW AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA...THEREBY LIMITING THE
QPF AMOUNTS. THE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. THE GUSTY W-NW WINDS IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS THROUGHOUT
SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL BE MAINLY SW-SE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT ON SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONG AND DEEP TROUGH THAT WON/T MOVE IN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...PRECIP WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT SWINGS UP INTO WASHINGTON AND NRN
IDAHO...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM UP ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND BLUSTERY AS THE
STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE SHOWERS. SUNDAY
WILL BE COOL AND BLUSTERY WITH A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE RIDGE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLOWLY STARTS TO SPIN UP OVER THE
PACIFIC IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....DG
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....SP/AB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 212052
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
252 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST WITH SHOWERS DECREASING OVER THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINS...ARE
INGREDIENTS FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE NORTHERN MTN VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
ON THURSDAY AS A MOIST SW-NE ORIENTED PACIFIC PLUME ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PLUME WILL SLOWLY ENTER SE
OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /EXCLUDING THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE PLUME IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN AND NARROW AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA...THEREBY LIMITING THE
QPF AMOUNTS. THE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. THE GUSTY W-NW WINDS IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS THROUGHOUT
SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL BE MAINLY SW-SE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT ON SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONG AND DEEP TROUGH THAT WON/T MOVE IN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...PRECIP WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT SWINGS UP INTO WASHINGTON AND NRN
IDAHO...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM UP ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND BLUSTERY AS THE
STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE SHOWERS. SUNDAY
WILL BE COOL AND BLUSTERY WITH A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE RIDGE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLOWLY STARTS TO SPIN UP OVER THE
PACIFIC IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ISOLATED MVFR SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST IN THE MTNS WITH MTNS OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
BECOMING VFR ALL AREAS TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE FOG AT KMYL.
SFC WINDS GENERALLY W 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO
LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10 KFT WILL BE W
20-30 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....SP/AB
AVIATION.....SP





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