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000
FXUS65 KBOI 180355
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
855 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE MID LAYER TROUGH BROUGHT 0.02 INCHES OF PRECIP
TO BURNS AND A TRACE TO BAKER CITY AS OF 8 PM MST. CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AND RADAR ECHOES HAVE DIMINISHED. 00Z
GFS AND NAM BRING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS HARNEY/BAKER COUNTIES AND
EVEN LIGHTER AMTS TO CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH 5 AM ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHEAR VORTICITY ALOFT. BEHIND THAT ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS
AMPLIFYING WHICH WILL PUSH THE SHEAR VORTICITY LOBE AND LIGHT QPF
ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO THURSDAY. LOW QPF AND MIDLING POPS IN THE
FORECAST FAVORING OREGON THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL IDAHO THURSDAY
ARE ON TRACK WITH THIS. AREAS ABOVE 5K-6K FT WILL SEE TWO ROUNDS
OF SNOW...ONE LIGHT ONE FRIDAY AND A HEAVIER ONE SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS OVER HARNEY/BAKER COUNTIES AND CENTRAL IDAHO
WILL DECREASE OVER OREGON EARLY THURSDAY AND OVER IDAHO THURSDAY
EVENING. MOSTLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. SURFACE
WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH UP TO 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15
KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SPREADING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY INTO
HARNEY COUNTY THIS EVENING...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN QUICKLY FOLLOW THU AND
THU NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE AS
SW FLOW ALOFT IS REESTABLISHED IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG MOIST JET
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. ONE ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE BULK IN ERN OREGON IN THE
MORNING AND IN SW IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS MOST OF THE DAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE
LIKELY ABOVE 3500 TO 4000 FEET. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LASTING THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. FRIDAY MORNING RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING
SO TRAVEL PROBLEMS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY. MILD ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ACROSS OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4000 FEET. SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THIS WILL PATTERN WILL TRANSPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION AT ALL ELEVATIONS...MOSTLY FALLING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
4000 FEET IN THE NORTH TO 5000 FEET ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. ON
SUNDAY SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE CONSIDERABLY...RANGING FROM 5500 FEET
IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TO 8000 FEET IN SOUTHEAST OREGON.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5500 FEET BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS BELOW 6000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES...WITH MONDAY THE WARMEST DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL CARRY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL COOL SLIGHTLY WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP AS WELL...COMING DOWN TO ABOUT 3000 TO 3500 FEET IN THE
BLUE/WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....VM
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/AB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 180355
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
855 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE MID LAYER TROUGH BROUGHT 0.02 INCHES OF PRECIP
TO BURNS AND A TRACE TO BAKER CITY AS OF 8 PM MST. CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AND RADAR ECHOES HAVE DIMINISHED. 00Z
GFS AND NAM BRING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS HARNEY/BAKER COUNTIES AND
EVEN LIGHTER AMTS TO CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH 5 AM ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHEAR VORTICITY ALOFT. BEHIND THAT ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS
AMPLIFYING WHICH WILL PUSH THE SHEAR VORTICITY LOBE AND LIGHT QPF
ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO THURSDAY. LOW QPF AND MIDLING POPS IN THE
FORECAST FAVORING OREGON THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL IDAHO THURSDAY
ARE ON TRACK WITH THIS. AREAS ABOVE 5K-6K FT WILL SEE TWO ROUNDS
OF SNOW...ONE LIGHT ONE FRIDAY AND A HEAVIER ONE SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS OVER HARNEY/BAKER COUNTIES AND CENTRAL IDAHO
WILL DECREASE OVER OREGON EARLY THURSDAY AND OVER IDAHO THURSDAY
EVENING. MOSTLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. SURFACE
WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH UP TO 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15
KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SPREADING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY INTO
HARNEY COUNTY THIS EVENING...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN QUICKLY FOLLOW THU AND
THU NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE AS
SW FLOW ALOFT IS REESTABLISHED IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG MOIST JET
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. ONE ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE BULK IN ERN OREGON IN THE
MORNING AND IN SW IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS MOST OF THE DAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE
LIKELY ABOVE 3500 TO 4000 FEET. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LASTING THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. FRIDAY MORNING RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING
SO TRAVEL PROBLEMS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY. MILD ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ACROSS OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4000 FEET. SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THIS WILL PATTERN WILL TRANSPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION AT ALL ELEVATIONS...MOSTLY FALLING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
4000 FEET IN THE NORTH TO 5000 FEET ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. ON
SUNDAY SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE CONSIDERABLY...RANGING FROM 5500 FEET
IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TO 8000 FEET IN SOUTHEAST OREGON.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5500 FEET BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS BELOW 6000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES...WITH MONDAY THE WARMEST DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL CARRY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL COOL SLIGHTLY WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP AS WELL...COMING DOWN TO ABOUT 3000 TO 3500 FEET IN THE
BLUE/WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....VM
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/AB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 180355
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
855 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE MID LAYER TROUGH BROUGHT 0.02 INCHES OF PRECIP
TO BURNS AND A TRACE TO BAKER CITY AS OF 8 PM MST. CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AND RADAR ECHOES HAVE DIMINISHED. 00Z
GFS AND NAM BRING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS HARNEY/BAKER COUNTIES AND
EVEN LIGHTER AMTS TO CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH 5 AM ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHEAR VORTICITY ALOFT. BEHIND THAT ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS
AMPLIFYING WHICH WILL PUSH THE SHEAR VORTICITY LOBE AND LIGHT QPF
ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO THURSDAY. LOW QPF AND MIDLING POPS IN THE
FORECAST FAVORING OREGON THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL IDAHO THURSDAY
ARE ON TRACK WITH THIS. AREAS ABOVE 5K-6K FT WILL SEE TWO ROUNDS
OF SNOW...ONE LIGHT ONE FRIDAY AND A HEAVIER ONE SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS OVER HARNEY/BAKER COUNTIES AND CENTRAL IDAHO
WILL DECREASE OVER OREGON EARLY THURSDAY AND OVER IDAHO THURSDAY
EVENING. MOSTLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. SURFACE
WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH UP TO 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15
KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SPREADING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY INTO
HARNEY COUNTY THIS EVENING...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN QUICKLY FOLLOW THU AND
THU NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE AS
SW FLOW ALOFT IS REESTABLISHED IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG MOIST JET
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. ONE ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE BULK IN ERN OREGON IN THE
MORNING AND IN SW IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS MOST OF THE DAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE
LIKELY ABOVE 3500 TO 4000 FEET. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LASTING THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. FRIDAY MORNING RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING
SO TRAVEL PROBLEMS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY. MILD ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ACROSS OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4000 FEET. SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THIS WILL PATTERN WILL TRANSPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION AT ALL ELEVATIONS...MOSTLY FALLING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
4000 FEET IN THE NORTH TO 5000 FEET ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. ON
SUNDAY SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE CONSIDERABLY...RANGING FROM 5500 FEET
IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TO 8000 FEET IN SOUTHEAST OREGON.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5500 FEET BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS BELOW 6000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES...WITH MONDAY THE WARMEST DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL CARRY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL COOL SLIGHTLY WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP AS WELL...COMING DOWN TO ABOUT 3000 TO 3500 FEET IN THE
BLUE/WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....VM
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 180355
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
855 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE MID LAYER TROUGH BROUGHT 0.02 INCHES OF PRECIP
TO BURNS AND A TRACE TO BAKER CITY AS OF 8 PM MST. CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AND RADAR ECHOES HAVE DIMINISHED. 00Z
GFS AND NAM BRING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS HARNEY/BAKER COUNTIES AND
EVEN LIGHTER AMTS TO CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH 5 AM ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHEAR VORTICITY ALOFT. BEHIND THAT ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS
AMPLIFYING WHICH WILL PUSH THE SHEAR VORTICITY LOBE AND LIGHT QPF
ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO THURSDAY. LOW QPF AND MIDLING POPS IN THE
FORECAST FAVORING OREGON THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL IDAHO THURSDAY
ARE ON TRACK WITH THIS. AREAS ABOVE 5K-6K FT WILL SEE TWO ROUNDS
OF SNOW...ONE LIGHT ONE FRIDAY AND A HEAVIER ONE SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS OVER HARNEY/BAKER COUNTIES AND CENTRAL IDAHO
WILL DECREASE OVER OREGON EARLY THURSDAY AND OVER IDAHO THURSDAY
EVENING. MOSTLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. SURFACE
WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH UP TO 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15
KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SPREADING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY INTO
HARNEY COUNTY THIS EVENING...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN QUICKLY FOLLOW THU AND
THU NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE AS
SW FLOW ALOFT IS REESTABLISHED IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG MOIST JET
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. ONE ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE BULK IN ERN OREGON IN THE
MORNING AND IN SW IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS MOST OF THE DAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE
LIKELY ABOVE 3500 TO 4000 FEET. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LASTING THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. FRIDAY MORNING RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING
SO TRAVEL PROBLEMS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY. MILD ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ACROSS OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4000 FEET. SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THIS WILL PATTERN WILL TRANSPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION AT ALL ELEVATIONS...MOSTLY FALLING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
4000 FEET IN THE NORTH TO 5000 FEET ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. ON
SUNDAY SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE CONSIDERABLY...RANGING FROM 5500 FEET
IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TO 8000 FEET IN SOUTHEAST OREGON.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5500 FEET BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS BELOW 6000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES...WITH MONDAY THE WARMEST DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL CARRY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL COOL SLIGHTLY WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP AS WELL...COMING DOWN TO ABOUT 3000 TO 3500 FEET IN THE
BLUE/WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....VM
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 180355 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
855 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE MID LAYER TROUGH BROUGHT 0.02 INCHES OF PRECIP
TO BURNS AND A TRACE TO BAKER CITY AS OF 8 PM MST. CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AND RADAR ECHOES HAVE DIMINISHED. 00Z
GFS AND NAM BRING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS HARNEY/BAKER COUNTIES AND
EVEN LIGHTER AMTS TO CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH 5 AM ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHEAR VORTICITY ALOFT. BEHIND THAT ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS
AMPLIFYING WHICH WILL PUSH THE SHEAR VORTICITY LOBE AND LIGHT QPF
ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO THURSDAY. LOW QPF AND MIDLING POPS IN THE
FORECAST FAVORING OREGON THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL IDAHO THURSDAY
ARE ON TRACK WITH THIS. AREAS ABOVE 5K-6K FT WILL SEE TWO ROUNDS
OF SNOW...ONE LIGHT ONE FRIDAY AND A HEAVIER ONE SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS OVER HARNEY/BAKER COUNTIES AND CENTRAL IDAHO
WILL DECREASE OVER OREGON EARLY THURSDAY AND OVER IDAHO THURSDAY
EVENING. MOSTLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. SURFACE
WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH UP TO 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15
KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL SHIFTING TO NW UP TO 15 KTS OVER OREGON
BY 12Z AND IDAHO BY 18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SPREADING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY INTO
HARNEY COUNTY THIS EVENING...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN QUICKLY FOLLOW THU AND
THU NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE AS
SW FLOW ALOFT IS REESTABLISHED IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG MOIST JET
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. ONE ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE BULK IN ERN OREGON IN THE
MORNING AND IN SW IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS MOST OF THE DAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE
LIKELY ABOVE 3500 TO 4000 FEET. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LASTING THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. FRIDAY MORNING RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING
SO TRAVEL PROBLEMS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY. MILD ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ACROSS OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4000 FEET. SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THIS WILL PATTERN WILL TRANSPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION AT ALL ELEVATIONS...MOSTLY FALLING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
4000 FEET IN THE NORTH TO 5000 FEET ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. ON
SUNDAY SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE CONSIDERABLY...RANGING FROM 5500 FEET
IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TO 8000 FEET IN SOUTHEAST OREGON.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5500 FEET BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS BELOW 6000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES...WITH MONDAY THE WARMEST DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL CARRY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL COOL SLIGHTLY WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP AS WELL...COMING DOWN TO ABOUT 3000 TO 3500 FEET IN THE
BLUE/WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....VM
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/AB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 180355 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
855 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE MID LAYER TROUGH BROUGHT 0.02 INCHES OF PRECIP
TO BURNS AND A TRACE TO BAKER CITY AS OF 8 PM MST. CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AND RADAR ECHOES HAVE DIMINISHED. 00Z
GFS AND NAM BRING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS HARNEY/BAKER COUNTIES AND
EVEN LIGHTER AMTS TO CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH 5 AM ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHEAR VORTICITY ALOFT. BEHIND THAT ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS
AMPLIFYING WHICH WILL PUSH THE SHEAR VORTICITY LOBE AND LIGHT QPF
ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO THURSDAY. LOW QPF AND MIDLING POPS IN THE
FORECAST FAVORING OREGON THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL IDAHO THURSDAY
ARE ON TRACK WITH THIS. AREAS ABOVE 5K-6K FT WILL SEE TWO ROUNDS
OF SNOW...ONE LIGHT ONE FRIDAY AND A HEAVIER ONE SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS OVER HARNEY/BAKER COUNTIES AND CENTRAL IDAHO
WILL DECREASE OVER OREGON EARLY THURSDAY AND OVER IDAHO THURSDAY
EVENING. MOSTLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. SURFACE
WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH UP TO 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15
KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL SHIFTING TO NW UP TO 15 KTS OVER OREGON
BY 12Z AND IDAHO BY 18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SPREADING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY INTO
HARNEY COUNTY THIS EVENING...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN QUICKLY FOLLOW THU AND
THU NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE AS
SW FLOW ALOFT IS REESTABLISHED IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG MOIST JET
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. ONE ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE BULK IN ERN OREGON IN THE
MORNING AND IN SW IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS MOST OF THE DAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE
LIKELY ABOVE 3500 TO 4000 FEET. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LASTING THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. FRIDAY MORNING RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING
SO TRAVEL PROBLEMS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY. MILD ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ACROSS OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4000 FEET. SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THIS WILL PATTERN WILL TRANSPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION AT ALL ELEVATIONS...MOSTLY FALLING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
4000 FEET IN THE NORTH TO 5000 FEET ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. ON
SUNDAY SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE CONSIDERABLY...RANGING FROM 5500 FEET
IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TO 8000 FEET IN SOUTHEAST OREGON.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5500 FEET BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS BELOW 6000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES...WITH MONDAY THE WARMEST DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL CARRY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL COOL SLIGHTLY WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP AS WELL...COMING DOWN TO ABOUT 3000 TO 3500 FEET IN THE
BLUE/WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....VM
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 172144
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SPREADING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY INTO
HARNEY COUNTY THIS EVENING...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN QUICKLY FOLLOW THU AND
THU NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE AS
SW FLOW ALOFT IS REESTABLISHED IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG MOIST JET
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. ONE ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE BULK IN ERN OREGON IN THE
MORNING AND IN SW IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS MOST OF THE DAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE
LIKELY ABOVE 3500 TO 4000 FEET. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LASTING THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. FRIDAY MORNING RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING
SO TRAVEL PROBLEMS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY. MILD ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ACROSS OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4000 FEET. SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THIS WILL PATTERN WILL TRANSPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION AT ALL ELEVATIONS...MOSTLY FALLING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
4000 FEET IN THE NORTH TO 5000 FEET ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. ON
SUNDAY SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE CONSIDERABLY...RANGING FROM 5500 FEET
IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TO 8000 FEET IN SOUTHEAST OREGON.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5500 FEET BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS BELOW 6000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES...WITH MONDAY THE WARMEST DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL CARRY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL COOL SLIGHTLY WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP AS WELL...COMING DOWN TO ABOUT 3000 TO 3500 FEET IN THE
BLUE/WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM EASTERN OREGON INTO THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH 5-
10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT/AB
AVIATION.....JT





000
FXUS65 KBOI 172144
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...SPREADING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY INTO
HARNEY COUNTY THIS EVENING...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN QUICKLY FOLLOW THU AND
THU NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE AS
SW FLOW ALOFT IS REESTABLISHED IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG MOIST JET
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. ONE ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE BULK IN ERN OREGON IN THE
MORNING AND IN SW IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS MOST OF THE DAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE
LIKELY ABOVE 3500 TO 4000 FEET. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LASTING THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. FRIDAY MORNING RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING
SO TRAVEL PROBLEMS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY. MILD ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ACROSS OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4000 FEET. SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THIS WILL PATTERN WILL TRANSPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION AT ALL ELEVATIONS...MOSTLY FALLING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
4000 FEET IN THE NORTH TO 5000 FEET ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. ON
SUNDAY SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE CONSIDERABLY...RANGING FROM 5500 FEET
IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TO 8000 FEET IN SOUTHEAST OREGON.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5500 FEET BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS BELOW 6000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES...WITH MONDAY THE WARMEST DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL CARRY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL COOL SLIGHTLY WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP AS WELL...COMING DOWN TO ABOUT 3000 TO 3500 FEET IN THE
BLUE/WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM EASTERN OREGON INTO THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH 5-
10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT/AB
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 171644
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
944 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY IN SE OREGON...THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY...AND THE MTNS OF SW IDAHO...WITH SOME CLEARING
IN OWYHEE COUNTY AND THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALSO HELP SPREAD
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE MTNS OF THE NORTH AND IN HARNEY
COUNTY. TEMPS WILL RISE TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH TODAY
AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED LOCALLY MVFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN OREGON BY THIS AFTERNOON FROM HARNEY COUNTY UP ACROSS BAKER
COUNTY...SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ON
THURSDAY SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TO ISOLATED IN EASTERN OREGON
BUT CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS...EAST
TO SOUTH 5-10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K
FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AT 09Z STRATUS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY COVERED NRN
MALHEUR COUNTY AND WRN BAKER COUNTY IN OREGON AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN
BOISE COUNTY AND VALLEY COUNTY IN IDAHO.  STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THIS MORNING.  I/R SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED AN UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE SRN OREGON/NRN CALIFORNIA COAST.  MODELS MOVE THE
TROUGH INLAND AND WEAKEN IT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  ONLY LIGHT PCPN
EXPECTED IN OUR CWA MAINLY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND MOSTLY IN NRN
ZONES.  LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS IN OPEN AREAS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THERE STILL ARE SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
SYSTEMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.  FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.  THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST
OREGON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW.  PRECIPITATION DECREASES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE FLOW FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  FLAT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE FOR
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN ZONES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES.  TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WILL
WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 171644
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
944 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY IN SE OREGON...THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY...AND THE MTNS OF SW IDAHO...WITH SOME CLEARING
IN OWYHEE COUNTY AND THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALSO HELP SPREAD
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE MTNS OF THE NORTH AND IN HARNEY
COUNTY. TEMPS WILL RISE TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH TODAY
AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED LOCALLY MVFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN OREGON BY THIS AFTERNOON FROM HARNEY COUNTY UP ACROSS BAKER
COUNTY...SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ON
THURSDAY SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TO ISOLATED IN EASTERN OREGON
BUT CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS...EAST
TO SOUTH 5-10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K
FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AT 09Z STRATUS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY COVERED NRN
MALHEUR COUNTY AND WRN BAKER COUNTY IN OREGON AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN
BOISE COUNTY AND VALLEY COUNTY IN IDAHO.  STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THIS MORNING.  I/R SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED AN UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE SRN OREGON/NRN CALIFORNIA COAST.  MODELS MOVE THE
TROUGH INLAND AND WEAKEN IT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  ONLY LIGHT PCPN
EXPECTED IN OUR CWA MAINLY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND MOSTLY IN NRN
ZONES.  LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS IN OPEN AREAS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THERE STILL ARE SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
SYSTEMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.  FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.  THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST
OREGON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW.  PRECIPITATION DECREASES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE FLOW FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  FLAT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE FOR
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN ZONES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES.  TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WILL
WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 170943
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
242 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...AT 09Z STRATUS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY COVERED NRN
MALHEUR COUNTY AND WRN BAKER COUNTY IN OREGON AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN
BOISE COUNTY AND VALLEY COUNTY IN IDAHO.  STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THIS MORNING.  I/R SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED AN UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE SRN OREGON/NRN CALIFORNIA COAST.  MODELS MOVE THE
TROUGH INLAND AND WEAKEN IT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  ONLY LIGHT PCPN
EXPECTED IN OUR CWA MAINLY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND MOSTLY IN NRN
ZONES.  LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS IN OPEN AREAS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THERE STILL ARE SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
SYSTEMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.  FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.  THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST
OREGON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW.  PRECIPITATION DECREASES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE FLOW FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  FLAT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE FOR
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN ZONES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES.  TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WILL
WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON.  LOCAL
IFR STRATUS AND FOG AT KBNO...KBKE AND KMYL UNTIL 18Z.  SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 170942
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
242 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...AT 09Z STRATUS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY COVERED NRN
MALHEUR COUNTY AND WRN BAKER COUNTY IN OREGON AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN
BOISE COUNTY AND VALLEY COUNTY IN IDAHO.  STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THIS MORNING.  I/R SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED AN UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE SRN OREGON/NRN CALIFORNIA COAST.  MODELS MOVE THE
TROUGH INLAND AND WEAKEN IT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  ONLY LIGHT PCPN
EXPECTED IN OUR CWA MAINLY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND MOSTLY IN NRN
ZONES.  LITTLE DAY-TO DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS IN OPEN AREAS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THERE STILL ARE SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
SYSTEMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.  FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.  THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST
OREGON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW.  PRECIPITATION DECREASES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE FLOW FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  FLAT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE FOR
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN ZONES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES.  TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WILL
WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON.  LOCAL
IFR STRATUS AND FOG AT KBNO...KBKE AND KMYL UNTIL 18Z.  SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 170942
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
242 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...AT 09Z STRATUS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY COVERED NRN
MALHEUR COUNTY AND WRN BAKER COUNTY IN OREGON AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN
BOISE COUNTY AND VALLEY COUNTY IN IDAHO.  STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THIS MORNING.  I/R SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED AN UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE SRN OREGON/NRN CALIFORNIA COAST.  MODELS MOVE THE
TROUGH INLAND AND WEAKEN IT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  ONLY LIGHT PCPN
EXPECTED IN OUR CWA MAINLY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND MOSTLY IN NRN
ZONES.  LITTLE DAY-TO DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS IN OPEN AREAS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THERE STILL ARE SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
SYSTEMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.  FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.  THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST
OREGON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW.  PRECIPITATION DECREASES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE FLOW FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  FLAT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE FOR
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN ZONES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES.  TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WILL
WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON.  LOCAL
IFR STRATUS AND FOG AT KBNO...KBKE AND KMYL UNTIL 18Z.  SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 170356
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
856 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EXITING CENTRAL IDAHO IS LEAVING
WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN ITS WAKE PER 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY. STRATUS
IS PATCHY ACROSS NE AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON WAS WIDESPREAD ACROSS
SW ID EXCEPT OWYHEE COUNTY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WAS OVER W
OREGON TO NEAR THE LAKE-HARNEY COUNTY LINE. EXPECT STRATUS TO
EXPAND OVERNIGHT TO AREAS BELOW 4K FT MSL WHICH INCLUDES MUCH OF
THE MALHEUR AND POWDER RIVER BASINS. EXPECT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS OREGON OVERNIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH RECENT
HRRR RUNS. STRATUS MAY HAVE LIGHT FLURRIES SO PLAN TO KEEP LOW
CENTRAL IDAHO POPS 6-12Z FOR THAT. FORECAST ON TRACK WITH A MINOR
UPDATE TO RAISE MIN TEMPS UNDER STRATUS LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEISER BASIN THROUGH THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS ENDING BY 06Z TONIGHT. IFR STRATUS
AND FOG AT KBKE...KBNO...KMYL AND THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL
MOST LIKELY LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SFC WINDS ARE VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN SE TO SW 10 TO 20 KTS UP
TO 10KFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE TAPERING OFF
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW POSITIONED JUST OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WEAKEN...AND
SPLIT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A BREAK FROM PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME CLEARING BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ON THURSDAY...THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THAT SPLIT TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT BY THE SIERRAS...A CHANCE OF
SNOW IS ONLY IN THE UPSLOPE FAVORED WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. QPF
AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LOW FOR THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS
ESPECIALLY GOOD THROUGH TUESDAY. A RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY PASS OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FAST MOIST FLOW MOVES IN FRIDAY...USHERING
IN A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND PRECIP. FIRST WAVE HITS
FRIDAY...WITH A STRONGER AND WETTER WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED ACCORDINGLY. WE HAVE RETAINED AN ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ALL THE WAY INTO TUE...DUE TO THE CONTINUATION OF MOIST NW
FLOW ALOFT...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. A KEY COMPONENT OF THIS PATTERN IS A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N 130W.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...EP
PREV LONG TERM....SP/DD




000
FXUS65 KBOI 170356
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
856 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EXITING CENTRAL IDAHO IS LEAVING
WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN ITS WAKE PER 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY. STRATUS
IS PATCHY ACROSS NE AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON WAS WIDESPREAD ACROSS
SW ID EXCEPT OWYHEE COUNTY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WAS OVER W
OREGON TO NEAR THE LAKE-HARNEY COUNTY LINE. EXPECT STRATUS TO
EXPAND OVERNIGHT TO AREAS BELOW 4K FT MSL WHICH INCLUDES MUCH OF
THE MALHEUR AND POWDER RIVER BASINS. EXPECT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS OREGON OVERNIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH RECENT
HRRR RUNS. STRATUS MAY HAVE LIGHT FLURRIES SO PLAN TO KEEP LOW
CENTRAL IDAHO POPS 6-12Z FOR THAT. FORECAST ON TRACK WITH A MINOR
UPDATE TO RAISE MIN TEMPS UNDER STRATUS LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEISER BASIN THROUGH THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS ENDING BY 06Z TONIGHT. IFR STRATUS
AND FOG AT KBKE...KBNO...KMYL AND THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL
MOST LIKELY LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SFC WINDS ARE VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN SE TO SW 10 TO 20 KTS UP
TO 10KFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE TAPERING OFF
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW POSITIONED JUST OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WEAKEN...AND
SPLIT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A BREAK FROM PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME CLEARING BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ON THURSDAY...THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THAT SPLIT TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT BY THE SIERRAS...A CHANCE OF
SNOW IS ONLY IN THE UPSLOPE FAVORED WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. QPF
AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LOW FOR THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS
ESPECIALLY GOOD THROUGH TUESDAY. A RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY PASS OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FAST MOIST FLOW MOVES IN FRIDAY...USHERING
IN A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND PRECIP. FIRST WAVE HITS
FRIDAY...WITH A STRONGER AND WETTER WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED ACCORDINGLY. WE HAVE RETAINED AN ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ALL THE WAY INTO TUE...DUE TO THE CONTINUATION OF MOIST NW
FLOW ALOFT...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. A KEY COMPONENT OF THIS PATTERN IS A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N 130W.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...EP
PREV LONG TERM....SP/DD





000
FXUS65 KBOI 170356
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
856 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EXITING CENTRAL IDAHO IS LEAVING
WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN ITS WAKE PER 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY. STRATUS
IS PATCHY ACROSS NE AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON WAS WIDESPREAD ACROSS
SW ID EXCEPT OWYHEE COUNTY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WAS OVER W
OREGON TO NEAR THE LAKE-HARNEY COUNTY LINE. EXPECT STRATUS TO
EXPAND OVERNIGHT TO AREAS BELOW 4K FT MSL WHICH INCLUDES MUCH OF
THE MALHEUR AND POWDER RIVER BASINS. EXPECT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS OREGON OVERNIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH RECENT
HRRR RUNS. STRATUS MAY HAVE LIGHT FLURRIES SO PLAN TO KEEP LOW
CENTRAL IDAHO POPS 6-12Z FOR THAT. FORECAST ON TRACK WITH A MINOR
UPDATE TO RAISE MIN TEMPS UNDER STRATUS LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEISER BASIN THROUGH THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS ENDING BY 06Z TONIGHT. IFR STRATUS
AND FOG AT KBKE...KBNO...KMYL AND THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL
MOST LIKELY LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SFC WINDS ARE VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN SE TO SW 10 TO 20 KTS UP
TO 10KFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE TAPERING OFF
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW POSITIONED JUST OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WEAKEN...AND
SPLIT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A BREAK FROM PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME CLEARING BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ON THURSDAY...THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THAT SPLIT TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT BY THE SIERRAS...A CHANCE OF
SNOW IS ONLY IN THE UPSLOPE FAVORED WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. QPF
AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LOW FOR THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS
ESPECIALLY GOOD THROUGH TUESDAY. A RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY PASS OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FAST MOIST FLOW MOVES IN FRIDAY...USHERING
IN A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND PRECIP. FIRST WAVE HITS
FRIDAY...WITH A STRONGER AND WETTER WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED ACCORDINGLY. WE HAVE RETAINED AN ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ALL THE WAY INTO TUE...DUE TO THE CONTINUATION OF MOIST NW
FLOW ALOFT...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. A KEY COMPONENT OF THIS PATTERN IS A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N 130W.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...EP
PREV LONG TERM....SP/DD




000
FXUS65 KBOI 170356
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
856 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EXITING CENTRAL IDAHO IS LEAVING
WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN ITS WAKE PER 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY. STRATUS
IS PATCHY ACROSS NE AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON WAS WIDESPREAD ACROSS
SW ID EXCEPT OWYHEE COUNTY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WAS OVER W
OREGON TO NEAR THE LAKE-HARNEY COUNTY LINE. EXPECT STRATUS TO
EXPAND OVERNIGHT TO AREAS BELOW 4K FT MSL WHICH INCLUDES MUCH OF
THE MALHEUR AND POWDER RIVER BASINS. EXPECT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS OREGON OVERNIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH RECENT
HRRR RUNS. STRATUS MAY HAVE LIGHT FLURRIES SO PLAN TO KEEP LOW
CENTRAL IDAHO POPS 6-12Z FOR THAT. FORECAST ON TRACK WITH A MINOR
UPDATE TO RAISE MIN TEMPS UNDER STRATUS LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEISER BASIN THROUGH THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS ENDING BY 06Z TONIGHT. IFR STRATUS
AND FOG AT KBKE...KBNO...KMYL AND THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL
MOST LIKELY LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SFC WINDS ARE VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN SE TO SW 10 TO 20 KTS UP
TO 10KFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE TAPERING OFF
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW POSITIONED JUST OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WEAKEN...AND
SPLIT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A BREAK FROM PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME CLEARING BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ON THURSDAY...THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THAT SPLIT TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT BY THE SIERRAS...A CHANCE OF
SNOW IS ONLY IN THE UPSLOPE FAVORED WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. QPF
AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LOW FOR THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS
ESPECIALLY GOOD THROUGH TUESDAY. A RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY PASS OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FAST MOIST FLOW MOVES IN FRIDAY...USHERING
IN A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND PRECIP. FIRST WAVE HITS
FRIDAY...WITH A STRONGER AND WETTER WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED ACCORDINGLY. WE HAVE RETAINED AN ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ALL THE WAY INTO TUE...DUE TO THE CONTINUATION OF MOIST NW
FLOW ALOFT...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. A KEY COMPONENT OF THIS PATTERN IS A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N 130W.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...EP
PREV LONG TERM....SP/DD





000
FXUS65 KBOI 162157
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
257 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE TAPERING OFF
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW POSITIONED JUST OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WEAKEN...AND
SPLIT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A BREAK FROM PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME CLEARING BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ON THURSDAY...THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THAT SPLIT TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT BY THE SIERRAS...A CHANCE OF
SNOW IS ONLY IN THE UPSLOPE FAVORED WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. QPF
AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LOW FOR THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS
ESPECIALLY GOOD THROUGH TUESDAY. A RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY PASS OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FAST MOIST FLOW MOVES IN FRIDAY...USHERING
IN A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND PRECIP. FIRST WAVE HITS
FRIDAY...WITH A STRONGER AND WETTER WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED ACCORDINGLY. WE HAVE RETAINED AN ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ALL THE WAY INTO TUE...DUE TO THE CONTINUATION OF MOIST NW
FLOW ALOFT...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. A KEY COMPONENT OF THIS PATTERN IS A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N 130W.

&&

.AVIATION...MTNS ARE OBSCURED. MVFR/IFR SNOW SHOWERS AT KTWF/KJER
WILL LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. KBNO HAS IFR CIG BUT SNOW HAS
ENDED THERE. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR IFR FOG AT
KBNO...KBKE...AND KMYL LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS ARE VARIABLE LESS
THAN 15 KTS...AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN SE TO SW 10 TO 20 KTS UP TO 10KFT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...EP
LONG TERM....SP/DD
AVIATION.....SP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 161620
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
920 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING THIS MORNING AS
AN UPPER LOW IS STILL WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS COASTAL
CALIFORNIA...BRINGING MOISTURE TO OUR AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AS TODAY PROGRESSES WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MTNS OBSCURED. LIGHT SNOW IS WIDESPREAD OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVEL IS
AROUND 4000 FT. SURFACE WIND THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KTS...EXCEPT KJER WHERE NE WINDS ARE 10-20
KTS. WINDS ALOFT... THROUGH 10 KFT MSL...WILL BE SE TO SW 15 TO 25
KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...A WEAK WAVE MOVED NEWD THROUGH OUR CWA MONDAY EVENING
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...WAVE IS ALREADY NORTH OF OUR CWA.
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER...WAVE WILL TRACK NEWD THROUGH IDAHO
ZONES TODAY BUT AS OF 09Z KCBX RADAR SEES NO ECHOES IN OUR CWA.
A WEAKER WAVE WILL TRACK NEWD THROUGH HARNEY COUNTY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND OUR
FORECAST DOES THE SAME.  SHADOWING FROM THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS
WILL LIMIT PCPN AND POPS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY.  TOTAL QPF WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT OUR CWA AND NO WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS ARE
PLANNED.  TEMPS WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE SNAKE BASIN.  LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  SPLITTING TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH MOVING OVER OREGON AND IDAHO.  THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY
RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ON
THURSDAY.  WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT MODELS SHOW THAT IT WILL MOVE EAST
RATHER QUICKLY WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS.  MODELS
STILL SHOW SOME TIMING ISSUES SO WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT A DRY
PERIOD IN THE FORECAST AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS RIGHT ON
THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE.  AT THIS TIME MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.  FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST.  THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN/SNOW AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.  FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
LIKE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AS A ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THERE ARE WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS.  WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE MODELS WILL BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE VALLEYS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 161620
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
920 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING THIS MORNING AS
AN UPPER LOW IS STILL WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS COASTAL
CALIFORNIA...BRINGING MOISTURE TO OUR AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AS TODAY PROGRESSES WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MTNS OBSCURED. LIGHT SNOW IS WIDESPREAD OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVEL IS
AROUND 4000 FT. SURFACE WIND THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KTS...EXCEPT KJER WHERE NE WINDS ARE 10-20
KTS. WINDS ALOFT... THROUGH 10 KFT MSL...WILL BE SE TO SW 15 TO 25
KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...A WEAK WAVE MOVED NEWD THROUGH OUR CWA MONDAY EVENING
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...WAVE IS ALREADY NORTH OF OUR CWA.
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER...WAVE WILL TRACK NEWD THROUGH IDAHO
ZONES TODAY BUT AS OF 09Z KCBX RADAR SEES NO ECHOES IN OUR CWA.
A WEAKER WAVE WILL TRACK NEWD THROUGH HARNEY COUNTY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND OUR
FORECAST DOES THE SAME.  SHADOWING FROM THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS
WILL LIMIT PCPN AND POPS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY.  TOTAL QPF WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT OUR CWA AND NO WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS ARE
PLANNED.  TEMPS WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE SNAKE BASIN.  LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  SPLITTING TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH MOVING OVER OREGON AND IDAHO.  THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY
RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ON
THURSDAY.  WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT MODELS SHOW THAT IT WILL MOVE EAST
RATHER QUICKLY WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS.  MODELS
STILL SHOW SOME TIMING ISSUES SO WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT A DRY
PERIOD IN THE FORECAST AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS RIGHT ON
THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE.  AT THIS TIME MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.  FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST.  THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN/SNOW AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.  FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
LIKE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AS A ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THERE ARE WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS.  WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE MODELS WILL BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE VALLEYS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 160947
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
247 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK WAVE MOVED NEWD THROUGH OUR CWA MONDAY EVENING
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...WAVE IS ALREADY NORTH OF OUR CWA.
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER...WAVE WILL TRACK NEWD THROUGH IDAHO
ZONES TODAY BUT AS OF 09Z KCBX RADAR SEES NO ECHOES IN OUR CWA.
A WEAKER WAVE WILL TRACK NEWD THROUGH HARNEY COUNTY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND OUR
FORECAST DOES THE SAME.  SHADOWING FROM THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS
WILL LIMIT PCPN AND POPS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY.  TOTAL QPF WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT OUR CWA AND NO WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS ARE
PLANNED.  TEMPS WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE SNAKE BASIN.  LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  SPLITTING TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH MOVING OVER OREGON AND IDAHO.  THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY
RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ON
THURSDAY.  WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT MODELS SHOW THAT IT WILL MOVE EAST
RATHER QUICKLY WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS.  MODELS
STILL SHOW SOME TIMING ISSUES SO WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT A DRY
PERIOD IN THE FORECAST AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS RIGHT ON
THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE.  AT THIS TIME MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.  FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST.  THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN/SNOW AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.  FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
LIKE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AS A ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THERE ARE WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS.  WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE MODELS WILL BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE VALLEYS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF -SN AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
KBNO...KBKE AND KMYL.  SNOW MAY CHANGE TO RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX
BELOW 3K FEET MSL.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR
LESS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FROM KBOI EAST TO KTWF/KJER
WITH EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHERLY
20-25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 160947
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
247 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK WAVE MOVED NEWD THROUGH OUR CWA MONDAY EVENING
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...WAVE IS ALREADY NORTH OF OUR CWA.
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER...WAVE WILL TRACK NEWD THROUGH IDAHO
ZONES TODAY BUT AS OF 09Z KCBX RADAR SEES NO ECHOES IN OUR CWA.
A WEAKER WAVE WILL TRACK NEWD THROUGH HARNEY COUNTY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND OUR
FORECAST DOES THE SAME.  SHADOWING FROM THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS
WILL LIMIT PCPN AND POPS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY.  TOTAL QPF WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT OUR CWA AND NO WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS ARE
PLANNED.  TEMPS WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE SNAKE BASIN.  LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  SPLITTING TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH MOVING OVER OREGON AND IDAHO.  THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY
RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ON
THURSDAY.  WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT MODELS SHOW THAT IT WILL MOVE EAST
RATHER QUICKLY WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS.  MODELS
STILL SHOW SOME TIMING ISSUES SO WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT A DRY
PERIOD IN THE FORECAST AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS RIGHT ON
THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE.  AT THIS TIME MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.  FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST.  THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN/SNOW AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.  FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
LIKE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AS A ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THERE ARE WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS.  WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE MODELS WILL BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE VALLEYS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF -SN AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
KBNO...KBKE AND KMYL.  SNOW MAY CHANGE TO RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX
BELOW 3K FEET MSL.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR
LESS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FROM KBOI EAST TO KTWF/KJER
WITH EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHERLY
20-25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 160947
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
247 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK WAVE MOVED NEWD THROUGH OUR CWA MONDAY EVENING
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...WAVE IS ALREADY NORTH OF OUR CWA.
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER...WAVE WILL TRACK NEWD THROUGH IDAHO
ZONES TODAY BUT AS OF 09Z KCBX RADAR SEES NO ECHOES IN OUR CWA.
A WEAKER WAVE WILL TRACK NEWD THROUGH HARNEY COUNTY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND OUR
FORECAST DOES THE SAME.  SHADOWING FROM THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS
WILL LIMIT PCPN AND POPS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY.  TOTAL QPF WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT OUR CWA AND NO WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS ARE
PLANNED.  TEMPS WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE SNAKE BASIN.  LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  SPLITTING TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH MOVING OVER OREGON AND IDAHO.  THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY
RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ON
THURSDAY.  WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT MODELS SHOW THAT IT WILL MOVE EAST
RATHER QUICKLY WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS.  MODELS
STILL SHOW SOME TIMING ISSUES SO WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT A DRY
PERIOD IN THE FORECAST AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS RIGHT ON
THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE.  AT THIS TIME MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.  FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST.  THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN/SNOW AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.  FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
LIKE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AS A ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THERE ARE WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS.  WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE MODELS WILL BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE VALLEYS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF -SN AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
KBNO...KBKE AND KMYL.  SNOW MAY CHANGE TO RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX
BELOW 3K FEET MSL.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR
LESS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FROM KBOI EAST TO KTWF/KJER
WITH EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHERLY
20-25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 160947
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
247 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK WAVE MOVED NEWD THROUGH OUR CWA MONDAY EVENING
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...WAVE IS ALREADY NORTH OF OUR CWA.
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER...WAVE WILL TRACK NEWD THROUGH IDAHO
ZONES TODAY BUT AS OF 09Z KCBX RADAR SEES NO ECHOES IN OUR CWA.
A WEAKER WAVE WILL TRACK NEWD THROUGH HARNEY COUNTY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND OUR
FORECAST DOES THE SAME.  SHADOWING FROM THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS
WILL LIMIT PCPN AND POPS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY.  TOTAL QPF WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT OUR CWA AND NO WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS ARE
PLANNED.  TEMPS WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE SNAKE BASIN.  LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  SPLITTING TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROUGH MOVING OVER OREGON AND IDAHO.  THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY
RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ON
THURSDAY.  WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT MODELS SHOW THAT IT WILL MOVE EAST
RATHER QUICKLY WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS.  MODELS
STILL SHOW SOME TIMING ISSUES SO WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT A DRY
PERIOD IN THE FORECAST AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS RIGHT ON
THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE.  AT THIS TIME MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST WE COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.  FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST.  THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN/SNOW AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.  FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
LIKE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AS A ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THERE ARE WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS.  WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE MODELS WILL BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE VALLEYS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF -SN AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
KBNO...KBKE AND KMYL.  SNOW MAY CHANGE TO RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX
BELOW 3K FEET MSL.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR
LESS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FROM KBOI EAST TO KTWF/KJER
WITH EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHERLY
20-25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 160544
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1044 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE...LEADING IMPULSE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AT 1030
PM EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN MALHEUR AND BAKER COUNTIES...THROUGH
THE UPPER WEISER BASIN THEN WEAKENED IN AN ARC AROUND FROM
CAMBRIDGE TO BANNER SUMMIT AND THE WEST MAGIC VALLEY. SNOW ENDED
AT TWIN FALLS AIRPORT AS OF 1023 PM AND WILL END AT JEROME BY
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BELOW FREEZING SO PERRINE/HANSEN
BRIDGES MAY BECOME SLICK FROM THE LIGHT SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH.
ALSO SNOW WILL DECREASE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OREGON AND THE WEISER
BASIN THROUGH 1 AM BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LIFT AND LIGHT SNOW /OVER
LAKE COUNTY AT 1030 PM/ IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. FORECAST UPDATED FOR
LOWER SNOW LEVELS TONIGHT. POPS AND TEMPS ON TRACK. GUSTY WINDS
FROM JEROME THROUGH MOUNTAIN HOME 20 TO 35 MPH /10-20 MPH AT
BOISE/ AND LIGHT ACROSS SHELTERED LOWER VALLEYS INCLUDING NAMPA
THROUGH ONTARIO.

&&

.AVIATION....AREAS OF -SN ACROSS EASTERN OREGON OVERNIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR...INCLUDING KBNO AND POSSIBLY KBKE VICINITY.
LESS COVERAGE ON THE IDAHO SIDE BUT DO EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR-IFR IN
-SN OVER MOUNTAINS. IFR IN FOG LIKELY AT KMYL AFTER 06Z...LIFTING
BY 20Z. CHANCE OF -SN OVER THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
BUT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...
EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FROM KBOI EAST TO KTWF/KJER WITH
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHERLY 15-25 KNOTS
UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL. CHANCE OF MVFR IN -SN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOUD COVER IS
MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS IT MOVES IN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP WITH HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL
BRING SOME GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY
AND TREASURE VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN
THIS EVENING IN SE OREGON AND SPREAD THROUGH SW IDAHO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LOW...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED
TO RECEIVE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT
VALLEY FLOORS TONIGHT AND SLOWLY RISE TO AROUND 3500-4000 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY MID-DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER...PRECIP
CHANCES TAPER OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE NEAR
THE CA/NV BORDER AND THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DIGS SOUTH.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SPLITTING TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
OREGON/IDAHO FOR A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW/SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY
RAIN AND SNOW. MODELS AGREE THAT THE QPF WILL BE LOW. A SHORT-LIVED
UPPER RIDGE AND ACCOMPANYING DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SLIDE INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES ON FRIDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN/SNOW AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE PATTERN CHANGES OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A MOIST PACIFIC
FLOW RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP AND POTENTIALLY
HIGHER QPF TO THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....TL
PREV SHORT TERM...EP
PREV LONG TERM....BW/DD




000
FXUS65 KBOI 160544
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1044 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE...LEADING IMPULSE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AT 1030
PM EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN MALHEUR AND BAKER COUNTIES...THROUGH
THE UPPER WEISER BASIN THEN WEAKENED IN AN ARC AROUND FROM
CAMBRIDGE TO BANNER SUMMIT AND THE WEST MAGIC VALLEY. SNOW ENDED
AT TWIN FALLS AIRPORT AS OF 1023 PM AND WILL END AT JEROME BY
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BELOW FREEZING SO PERRINE/HANSEN
BRIDGES MAY BECOME SLICK FROM THE LIGHT SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH.
ALSO SNOW WILL DECREASE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OREGON AND THE WEISER
BASIN THROUGH 1 AM BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LIFT AND LIGHT SNOW /OVER
LAKE COUNTY AT 1030 PM/ IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. FORECAST UPDATED FOR
LOWER SNOW LEVELS TONIGHT. POPS AND TEMPS ON TRACK. GUSTY WINDS
FROM JEROME THROUGH MOUNTAIN HOME 20 TO 35 MPH /10-20 MPH AT
BOISE/ AND LIGHT ACROSS SHELTERED LOWER VALLEYS INCLUDING NAMPA
THROUGH ONTARIO.

&&

.AVIATION....AREAS OF -SN ACROSS EASTERN OREGON OVERNIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR...INCLUDING KBNO AND POSSIBLY KBKE VICINITY.
LESS COVERAGE ON THE IDAHO SIDE BUT DO EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR-IFR IN
-SN OVER MOUNTAINS. IFR IN FOG LIKELY AT KMYL AFTER 06Z...LIFTING
BY 20Z. CHANCE OF -SN OVER THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
BUT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...
EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FROM KBOI EAST TO KTWF/KJER WITH
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHERLY 15-25 KNOTS
UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL. CHANCE OF MVFR IN -SN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOUD COVER IS
MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS IT MOVES IN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP WITH HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL
BRING SOME GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY
AND TREASURE VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN
THIS EVENING IN SE OREGON AND SPREAD THROUGH SW IDAHO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LOW...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED
TO RECEIVE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT
VALLEY FLOORS TONIGHT AND SLOWLY RISE TO AROUND 3500-4000 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY MID-DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER...PRECIP
CHANCES TAPER OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE NEAR
THE CA/NV BORDER AND THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DIGS SOUTH.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SPLITTING TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
OREGON/IDAHO FOR A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW/SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY
RAIN AND SNOW. MODELS AGREE THAT THE QPF WILL BE LOW. A SHORT-LIVED
UPPER RIDGE AND ACCOMPANYING DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SLIDE INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES ON FRIDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN/SNOW AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE PATTERN CHANGES OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A MOIST PACIFIC
FLOW RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP AND POTENTIALLY
HIGHER QPF TO THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....TL
PREV SHORT TERM...EP
PREV LONG TERM....BW/DD





000
FXUS65 KBOI 160315
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
815 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE INDEED BEEN LIGHT WITH BURNS
REPORTING 0.01 LIQUID THIS EVENING. SNOTEL IN THE STEENS MTN AREA
OVER LAST 24 HRS PICKED UP LESS THAN 0.2 OF SNOW. RADAR FILLED IN
ACROSS MUCH OF FAR SW IDAHO BUT CLOUD BASES /BOISE AND NAMPA/
REMAINED RATHER HIGH /6-8K FT AGL/ COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS
THE TREASURE VALLEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS THIS AREA LIFTS TOWARDS THE
BOISE MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE OVER NIGHT. ONLY HRRR AND NOW
01Z RAP13 AMONG 18ZNAM/GFS 12ZEC CAPTURED LOW QPF ACROSS THE
OWYHEES AND BOISE MTNS SO DID A QUICK UPDATE FOR HIGHER POPS AND
UP TO HALF INCH OF SNOW /OWYHEE PEAKS/ WITH THIS FEATURE. STILL
EXPECT MAIN AREA OF VERY LOW QPF AND LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SE OREGON AS MODERATE SSW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A PRECIP SHADOW TO
THE IDAHO TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST MAGIC VALLEY. CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS SHOULD ALSO GET LIGHT SNOW BUT LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION. AS THIS FEATURE EXITS EARLY TUESDAY THERE SHOULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG WHERE WINDS DIE OFF. ANOTHER UPDATE TO ADD FOG FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS...INCLUDES MCCALL.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF -SN ACROSS EASTERN OREGON OVERNIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR...INCLUDING KBNO AND POSSIBLY KBKE VICINITY.
LESS COVERAGE ON THE IDAHO SIDE BUT DO EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR-IFR IN
-SN OVER MOUNTAINS. IFR IN FOG LIKELY AT KMYL AFTER 06Z...LIFTING
BY 20Z. CHANCE OF -SN OVER THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
BUT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...
EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FROM KBOI EAST TO KTWF/KJER WITH
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHERLY 15-25 KNOTS
UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL. CHANCE OF MVFR IN -SN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOUD COVER IS
MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS IT MOVES IN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP WITH HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL
BRING SOME GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY
AND TREASURE VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN
THIS EVENING IN SE OREGON AND SPREAD THROUGH SW IDAHO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LOW...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED
TO RECEIVE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT
VALLEY FLOORS TONIGHT AND SLOWLY RISE TO AROUND 3500-4000 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY MID-DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER...PRECIP
CHANCES TAPER OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE NEAR
THE CA/NV BORDER AND THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DIGS SOUTH.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SPLITTING TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
OREGON/IDAHO FOR A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW/SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY
RAIN AND SNOW. MODELS AGREE THAT THE QPF WILL BE LOW. A SHORT-LIVED
UPPER RIDGE AND ACCOMPANYING DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SLIDE INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES ON FRIDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN/SNOW AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE PATTERN CHANGES OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A MOIST PACIFIC
FLOW RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP AND POTENTIALLY
HIGHER QPF TO THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....TL
PREV SHORT TERM...EP
PREV LONG TERM....BW/DD




000
FXUS65 KBOI 160315
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
815 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE INDEED BEEN LIGHT WITH BURNS
REPORTING 0.01 LIQUID THIS EVENING. SNOTEL IN THE STEENS MTN AREA
OVER LAST 24 HRS PICKED UP LESS THAN 0.2 OF SNOW. RADAR FILLED IN
ACROSS MUCH OF FAR SW IDAHO BUT CLOUD BASES /BOISE AND NAMPA/
REMAINED RATHER HIGH /6-8K FT AGL/ COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS
THE TREASURE VALLEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS THIS AREA LIFTS TOWARDS THE
BOISE MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE OVER NIGHT. ONLY HRRR AND NOW
01Z RAP13 AMONG 18ZNAM/GFS 12ZEC CAPTURED LOW QPF ACROSS THE
OWYHEES AND BOISE MTNS SO DID A QUICK UPDATE FOR HIGHER POPS AND
UP TO HALF INCH OF SNOW /OWYHEE PEAKS/ WITH THIS FEATURE. STILL
EXPECT MAIN AREA OF VERY LOW QPF AND LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SE OREGON AS MODERATE SSW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A PRECIP SHADOW TO
THE IDAHO TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST MAGIC VALLEY. CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS SHOULD ALSO GET LIGHT SNOW BUT LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION. AS THIS FEATURE EXITS EARLY TUESDAY THERE SHOULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG WHERE WINDS DIE OFF. ANOTHER UPDATE TO ADD FOG FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS...INCLUDES MCCALL.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF -SN ACROSS EASTERN OREGON OVERNIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR...INCLUDING KBNO AND POSSIBLY KBKE VICINITY.
LESS COVERAGE ON THE IDAHO SIDE BUT DO EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR-IFR IN
-SN OVER MOUNTAINS. IFR IN FOG LIKELY AT KMYL AFTER 06Z...LIFTING
BY 20Z. CHANCE OF -SN OVER THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS OVERNIGHT
BUT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...
EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FROM KBOI EAST TO KTWF/KJER WITH
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHERLY 15-25 KNOTS
UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL. CHANCE OF MVFR IN -SN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOUD COVER IS
MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS IT MOVES IN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP WITH HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL
BRING SOME GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY
AND TREASURE VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN
THIS EVENING IN SE OREGON AND SPREAD THROUGH SW IDAHO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LOW...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED
TO RECEIVE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT
VALLEY FLOORS TONIGHT AND SLOWLY RISE TO AROUND 3500-4000 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY MID-DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER...PRECIP
CHANCES TAPER OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE NEAR
THE CA/NV BORDER AND THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DIGS SOUTH.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SPLITTING TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
OREGON/IDAHO FOR A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW/SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY
RAIN AND SNOW. MODELS AGREE THAT THE QPF WILL BE LOW. A SHORT-LIVED
UPPER RIDGE AND ACCOMPANYING DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SLIDE INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES ON FRIDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN/SNOW AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE PATTERN CHANGES OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A MOIST PACIFIC
FLOW RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP AND POTENTIALLY
HIGHER QPF TO THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....TL
PREV SHORT TERM...EP
PREV LONG TERM....BW/DD





000
FXUS65 KBOI 152127
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
227 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOUD COVER IS
MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS IT MOVES IN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP WITH HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL
BRING SOME GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY
AND TREASURE VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN
THIS EVENING IN SE OREGON AND SPREAD THROUGH SW IDAHO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LOW...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED
TO RECEIVE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT
VALLEY FLOORS TONIGHT AND SLOWLY RISE TO AROUND 3500-4000 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY MID-DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER...PRECIP
CHANCES TAPER OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE NEAR
THE CA/NV BORDER AND THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DIGS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SPLITTING TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
OREGON/IDAHO FOR A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW/SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY
RAIN AND SNOW. MODELS AGREE THAT THE QPF WILL BE LOW. A SHORT-LIVED
UPPER RIDGE AND ACCOMPANYING DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SLIDE INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES ON FRIDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN/SNOW AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE PATTERN CHANGES OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A MOIST PACIFIC
FLOW RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP AND POTENTIALLY
HIGHER QPF TO THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
-SN SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT IN THE
SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FROM KBOI EAST TO KTWF/KJER WITH EASTERLY WINDS
OF 15-25 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHERLY 15-25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...EP
LONG TERM....BW/DD
AVIATION.....BW





000
FXUS65 KBOI 152127
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
227 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOUD COVER IS
MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS IT MOVES IN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP WITH HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL
BRING SOME GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY
AND TREASURE VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN
THIS EVENING IN SE OREGON AND SPREAD THROUGH SW IDAHO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LOW...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED
TO RECEIVE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AT
VALLEY FLOORS TONIGHT AND SLOWLY RISE TO AROUND 3500-4000 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY MID-DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER...PRECIP
CHANCES TAPER OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE NEAR
THE CA/NV BORDER AND THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DIGS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SPLITTING TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
OREGON/IDAHO FOR A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW/SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY
RAIN AND SNOW. MODELS AGREE THAT THE QPF WILL BE LOW. A SHORT-LIVED
UPPER RIDGE AND ACCOMPANYING DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SLIDE INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES ON FRIDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN/SNOW AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE PATTERN CHANGES OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A MOIST PACIFIC
FLOW RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP AND POTENTIALLY
HIGHER QPF TO THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
-SN SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT IN THE
SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FROM KBOI EAST TO KTWF/KJER WITH EASTERLY WINDS
OF 15-25 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHERLY 15-25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...EP
LONG TERM....BW/DD
AVIATION.....BW




000
FXUS65 KBOI 151620
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
920 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS A
TROUGH BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND. CLOUD COVER IN INCREASING IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON BUT PRECIP IS REMAINING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY. A CHANCE OF
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF A KBNO-KREO LINE AFTER 18Z.
PATCHY IFR FOG IN THE LONG VALLEY /INCLUDING KMYL/ AND CAMAS PRAIRIE
/INCLUDING FAIRFIELD/ WILL DISSIPATE BY 19Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY
10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FROM KBOI EAST
TO KTWF/KJER WITH EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 35
KNOTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHERLY 15-25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS NEWD ACROSS OREGON
ZONES TODAY AND IDAHO ZONES TONIGHT.  A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
ALSO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS SERN OREGON TODAY...TO THE OR/ID BORDER
THIS EVENING...AND MOST OF WRN IDAHO OVERNIGHT.  A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW IN ALL AREAS TUESDAY AS TEMPS MODERATE...PCPN ENDING
IN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  NO WINTER WX
HIGHLIGHTS PLANNED AS QPF WILL BE LIGHT.  THE TREASURE VALLEY MAY
HAVE A DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE ROADS TUESDAY MORNING DURING THE
COMMUTING PERIOD.  CLOUDS AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIMIT COOLING TONIGHT.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ALSO TREND HIGHER WITH
PASSAGE OF THE WEAK WARM FRONT TUESDAY.  TIGHTENING E-W SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE SNAKE BASIN
THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MAGIC VALLEY WHERE SPEEDS
WILL REACH 15-30 MPH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK GFS IS A
BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...THEREFORE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.  SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
VALLEY RAIN/SNOW AND A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  DUE TO THE SPLITTING TROUGH
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE VALLEYS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE.  FRIDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE WEST COAST BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WILL
DETERMINE WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION.  BEING
SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND WITH MODELS NOT VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN WILL DO A BROAD BRUSH OF POPS AND TREND TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND.
WITH THIS SCENARIO WILL SEE PRECIPITATION SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY.  AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST A ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT
MOSTLY DRY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 150934
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
234 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS NEWD ACROSS OREGON
ZONES TODAY AND IDAHO ZONES TONIGHT.  A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
ALSO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS SERN OREGON TODAY...TO THE OR/ID BORDER
THIS EVENING...AND MOST OF WRN IDAHO OVERNIGHT.  A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW IN ALL AREAS TUESDAY AS TEMPS MODERATE...PCPN ENDING
IN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  NO WINTER WX
HIGHLIGHTS PLANNED AS QPF WILL BE LIGHT.  THE TREASURE VALLEY MAY
HAVE A DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE ROADS TUESDAY MORNING DURING THE
COMMUTING PERIOD.  CLOUDS AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIMIT COOLING TONIGHT.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ALSO TREND HIGHER WITH
PASSAGE OF THE WEAK WARM FRONT TUESDAY.  TIGHTENING E-W SURFACE
PRSSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE SNAKE BASIN
THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MAGIC VALLEY WHERE SPEEDS
WILL REACH 15-30 MPH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK GFS IS A
BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...THEREFORE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.  SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
VALLEY RAIN/SNOW AND A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  DUE TO THE SPLITTING TROUGH
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE VALLEYS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE.  FRIDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE WEST COAST BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WILL
DETERMINE WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION.  BEING
SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND WITH MODELS NOT VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN WILL DO A BROAD BRUSH OF POPS AND TREND TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND.
WITH THIS SCENARIO WILL SEE PRECIPITATION SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY.  AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST A ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT
MOSTLY DRY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF A KBNO-KREO LINE.
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 18Z-
19Z.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY EASTERLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT IN
THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FROM KMUO EAST TO KTWF/KJER WITH EASTERLY
WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 150934
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
234 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS NEWD ACROSS OREGON
ZONES TODAY AND IDAHO ZONES TONIGHT.  A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
ALSO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS SERN OREGON TODAY...TO THE OR/ID BORDER
THIS EVENING...AND MOST OF WRN IDAHO OVERNIGHT.  A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW IN ALL AREAS TUESDAY AS TEMPS MODERATE...PCPN ENDING
IN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  NO WINTER WX
HIGHLIGHTS PLANNED AS QPF WILL BE LIGHT.  THE TREASURE VALLEY MAY
HAVE A DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE ROADS TUESDAY MORNING DURING THE
COMMUTING PERIOD.  CLOUDS AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIMIT COOLING TONIGHT.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ALSO TREND HIGHER WITH
PASSAGE OF THE WEAK WARM FRONT TUESDAY.  TIGHTENING E-W SURFACE
PRSSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE SNAKE BASIN
THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MAGIC VALLEY WHERE SPEEDS
WILL REACH 15-30 MPH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK GFS IS A
BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...THEREFORE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.  SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
VALLEY RAIN/SNOW AND A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  DUE TO THE SPLITTING TROUGH
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE VALLEYS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE.  FRIDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE WEST COAST BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WILL
DETERMINE WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION.  BEING
SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND WITH MODELS NOT VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN WILL DO A BROAD BRUSH OF POPS AND TREND TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND.
WITH THIS SCENARIO WILL SEE PRECIPITATION SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY.  AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST A ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT
MOSTLY DRY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF A KBNO-KREO LINE.
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 18Z-
19Z.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY EASTERLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT IN
THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FROM KMUO EAST TO KTWF/KJER WITH EASTERLY
WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




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