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000
FXUS65 KBOI 310239
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
839 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...DEEP TROUGH OFF THE NW COAST THIS EVENING WITH LOTS OF
COLD CU WEST OF 130W.  TROUGH WILL COME IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
LATEST MODEL TIMING HAS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG A MCCALL/ID
SWWD TO ROME/OR LINE AT SUNSET FRIDAY...WITH ALL THE PCPN BEHIND
THE FRONT.  PCPN WILL ENTER WRN IDAHO AFTER 12Z SATURDAY MORNING AND
COVER ALL IDAHO ZONES LATER SATURDAY.  STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
LOWER MAX TEMPS ABOUT 20F SATURDAY COMPARED TO FRIDAY.  SNOW
LEVEL WILL LOWER TO ABOUT 4200 FEET MSL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...OR LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LOW ENOUGH
FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE AT PASS LEVELS.  SIGNIFICANT W-E SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE SNAKE BASIN
SATURDAY AND MAY REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WRN MAGIC VALLEY...
BUT SO FAR GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT WINDS THAT STRONG.  CURRENT
FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES
SATURDAY BUT NONE OF THE MODELS HAS NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX.  STILL...
GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS IT...THERE
SHOULD BE PRONOUNCED LIFT AT FROPA AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN MAGIC VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT
AROUND 10K FT MSL...SOUTHWEST AT 25-35KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SHIFT CLOSE TO THE COAST FRIDAY AND BRING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SATURDAY. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THIS WILL
RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES...AREAS OF BREEZY SE TO SW WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SHOWERS OVER OREGON LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO SATURDAY. COOLING OF 2 TO 5
DEGREES MAINLY ACROSS OREGON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY 10-20
DEGREES FURTHER COOLING SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. LOW LI AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NE OREGON LATE
FRIDAY AND LOW LI WILL CONTINUE ACROSS S CENTRAL IDAHO LATE SATURDAY
FOR A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY FROM ONTARIO THROUGH TWIN FALLS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH  TUESDAY...COOL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 5000 FEET BRIEFLY AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF WEAK RIDGING.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BY MONDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
ZONAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE BLUE/W-CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY
COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 FT ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTH KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DRY AND A HAIR
WARMER THAN OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA/AB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 302101
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
301 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SHIFT CLOSE TO THE COAST FRIDAY AND BRING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SATURDAY. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THIS WILL
RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES...AREAS OF BREEZY SE TO SW WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SHOWERS OVER OREGON LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO SATURDAY. COOLING OF 2 TO 5
DEGREES MAINLY ACROSS OREGON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY 10-20
DEGREES OF COOLING SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH MUCH COOLER WX. LOW LI AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NE OREGON LATE FRIDAY AND LOW LI WILL CONTINUE ACROSS S CENTRAL
IDAHO LATE SATURDAY FOR A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY FROM ONTARIO THROUGH TWIN
FALLS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH  TUESDAY...COOL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 5000 FEET BRIEFLY AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF WEAK RIDGING.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BY MONDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
ZONAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE BLUE/W CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY
COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 FT ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTH KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DRY AND A HAIR
WARMER THAN OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST 5-15KT...STRONGEST THROUGH MAGIC
VALLEY NEAR KJER. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 20-30KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA/AB
AVIATION.....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 301534
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
934 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY TO THE
WEISER BASIN IS LIFTING. FOG WAS SEEN ON WEB CAMS AT FRUITLAND...
...ONTARIO AND I-95 AT SMOKEY BOULDER. DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM. THAT SYSTEM IS DUE IN ACROSS OREGON AFTER SUNSET
FRIDAY AND ACROSS IDAHO LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEARBY RAIN
ACROSS NE OREGON IS WITH A WARM FRONT AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE
TOWARDS THE ID PANHANDLE AND E WA THIS MORNING...NOT AFFECTING OUR
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST 5-15KT...STRONGEST THROUGH MAGIC
VALLEY NEAR KJER. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 10-20KT
BECOMING SW 20-30KT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HIT
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S IN THE VALLEY TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH 5 PM MDT ON HALLOWEEN BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
RAIN IN BURNS AND BAKER CITY THEREAFTER.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ENERGY DIGGING
INTO THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
FORM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK RIGHT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. BEFORE THE LOW MOVES IN...A FRONTAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD...SPREADING SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO ON
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF AT AROUND 8000 FEET THEN FALL
TO AROUND 5000 FEET ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL AVERAGE 0.10-0.25 INCHES IN THE
VALLEYS AND 0.50-1.00 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING FURTHER TO AROUND 4500
FEET. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING MCCALL WHICH COULD SEE ITS FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. A TIGHT W-E SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
GUSTY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WHICH
COULD BE WINDY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...A MOIST PACIFIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL KEEP IT DRY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....BW





000
FXUS65 KBOI 301534 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
934 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATE FOR FOG UNTIL NOON MAINLY ACROSS THE
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
TO THE WEISER BASIN IS LIFTING. FOG WAS SEEN ON WEB CAMS AT
FRUITLAND...ONTARIO AND I-95 AT SMOKEY BOULDER. /AMEND...FOG WAS
LOCALLY DENSE BETWEEN NAMPA AND MARSING AROUND 10 AM LATE THIS
MORNING./ DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM. THAT SYSTEM IS
DUE IN ACROSS OREGON AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AND ACROSS IDAHO LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEARBY RAIN ACROSS NE OREGON IS WITH A WARM
FRONT AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE TOWARDS THE ID PANHANDLE AND E WA
THIS MORNING...NOT AFFECTING OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST 5-15KT...STRONGEST THROUGH MAGIC
VALLEY NEAR KJER. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 10-20KT
BECOMING SW 20-30KT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HIT
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S IN THE VALLEY TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH 5 PM MDT ON HALLOWEEN BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
RAIN IN BURNS AND BAKER CITY THEREAFTER.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ENERGY DIGGING
INTO THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
FORM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK RIGHT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. BEFORE THE LOW MOVES IN...A FRONTAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD...SPREADING SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO ON
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF AT AROUND 8000 FEET THEN FALL
TO AROUND 5000 FEET ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL AVERAGE 0.10-0.25 INCHES IN THE
VALLEYS AND 0.50-1.00 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING FURTHER TO AROUND 4500
FEET. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING MCCALL WHICH COULD SEE ITS FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. A TIGHT W-E SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
GUSTY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WHICH
COULD BE WINDY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...A MOIST PACIFIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL KEEP IT DRY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....BW





000
FXUS65 KBOI 300922
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
322 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HIT
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S IN THE VALLEY TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH 5 PM MDT ON HALLOWEEN BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
RAIN IN BURNS AND BAKER CITY THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ENERGY DIGGING
INTO THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
FORM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK RIGHT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. BEFORE THE LOW MOVES IN...A FRONTAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD...SPREADING SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO ON
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF AT AROUND 8000 FEET THEN FALL
TO AROUND 5000 FEET ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL AVERAGE 0.10-0.25 INCHES IN THE
VALLEYS AND 0.50-1.00 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING FURTHER TO AROUND 4500
FEET. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING MCCALL WHICH COULD SEE ITS FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. A TIGHT W-E SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
GUSTY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WHICH
COULD BE WINDY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...A MOIST PACIFIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL KEEP IT DRY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT E-SE WINDS 10-20 KNOTS AT KBKE AND FROM
KMUO TO KJER. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT 15-25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW





000
FXUS65 KBOI 300231 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
831 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING NEWD INTO OREGON WITH A
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN OREGON...FRONT MOVING
NWD.  OUR SRN-MOST ZONES HAVE PARTIALLY CLEARED AND ARE ALREADY IN
THE WARM SECTOR.  CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN OTHER ZONES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN
TODAY...POSSIBLY THE LAST REALLY WARM DAYS THIS SEASON.  PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OREGON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
WRN IDAHO SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY WINDY AND MUCH COOLER WX...
ALREADY IN FORECAST.  FRONT WILL ALSO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS...SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 4500 FEET MSL SATURDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS A LITTLE LIGHT ON POST-FRONTAL WEST WINDS
SATURDAY.  WINDS MAY BE INCREASED WHEN ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...EXCEPT EAST WINDS 10-20KT AT KJER AND KTWF
BY 30/12Z. WINDS ALOFT AROUND 10K FT EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWEST AT
15-25KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN OFF THE PACIFIC.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTENSIFIES THURSDAY...IT WILL HELP INDUCE
A SOUTHEAST WIND IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP WARM
TEMPERATURES EVEN AS THE SUN FIGHTS TO GET THROUGH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS THU WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THU NIGHT A LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONTO THE PAC NW COAST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO MUCH OF SE OREGON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL AGAIN OWING TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CONTINUED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
EACH NIGHT WILL BE MILD BECAUSE OF WINDS AND CLOUDS...WITH
READINGS 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT...AND AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL SPLIT FROM THE MAIN
JET STREAM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
WILL TRACK FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
SOUTHERN IDAHO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS
TO THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS UP TO
1.00 INCH.  SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY START OUT AROUND 9000 FEET
MSL AND DROP TO 4500 FEET AS THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF. SNOW
TOTALS ABOVE 7000 FEET COULD RANGE FROM 3-6 INCHES WITH THIS
STORM WITH UP TO 8 INCHES ABOVE 9000 FEET. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO NE
OREGON AND THE MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE
5000 FT MSL. AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY MORNING CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL LESSEN AND THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO ABOUT 7000 FT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....KA/AB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 292213 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN OFF THE PACIFIC.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTENSIFIES THURSDAY...IT WILL HELP INDUCE
A SOUTHEAST WIND IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP WARM
TEMPERATURES EVEN AS THE SUN FIGHTS TO GET THROUGH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS THU WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THU NIGHT A LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONTO THE PAC NW COAST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO MUCH OF SE OREGON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL AGAIN OWING TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CONTINUED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
EACH NIGHT WILL BE MILD BECAUSE OF WINDS AND CLOUDS...WITH
READINGS 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT...AND AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL SPLIT FROM THE MAIN
JET STREAM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
WILL TRACK FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
SOUTHERN IDAHO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS
TO THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH QPF AMOUNTS UP TO 1.00 INCH.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY START OUT AROUND 9000 FEET AND DROP TO
4500 FEET AS THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF. SNOW TOTALS ABOVE 7000
FEET COULD RANGE FROM 3-6 INCHES WITH THIS STORM WITH UP TO 8
INCHES ABOVE 9000 FEET. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY
SUNDAY EVENING. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC BRINGING IN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER NE
OREGON AND THE MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE
5000 FT. AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY MORNING CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL LESSEN AND THE SNOW LEVEL WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT
7000 FT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS AND NE OREGON MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE...BECOMING EASTERLY 10-20KT BY 15Z THU IN MAGIC
VALLEY NEAR KJER AND UPPER TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K
FEET MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT TURNING TO SW 15-25KT BY 18Z THU.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....KA/AB
AVIATION.....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 292041
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN OFF THE PACIFIC.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTENSIFIES THURSDAY...IT WILL HELP INDUCE
A SOUTHEAST WIND IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP WARM
TEMPERATURES EVEN AS THE SUN FIGHTS TO GET THROUGH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS THU WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THU NIGHT A LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONTO THE PAC NW COAST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO MUCH OF SE OREGON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL AGAIN OWING TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CONTINUED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
EACH NIGHT WILL BE MILD BECAUSE OF WINDS AND CLOUDS...WITH
READINGS 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT...AND AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL SPLIT FROM THE MAIN JET
STREAM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL
TRACK FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
SOUTHERN IDAHO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS
TO THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH QPF AMOUNTS UP TO 1.00 INCH.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY START OUT AROUND 9000 FEET AND DROP TO
4500 FEET AS THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF. SNOW TOTALS ABOVE 7000
FEET COULD RANGE FROM 3-6 INCHES WITH THIS STORM WITH UP TO 8
INCHES ABOVE 9000 FEET.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING
MONDAY AND A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET IN BEHIND IN. THIS
FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL A TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE IN
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A MORE SSWERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT NORMAL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD... INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON A
DAILY BASIS. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH EACH PASSING TROUGH...POSSIBLY COMING IN
THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS AND NE OREGON MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE...BECOMING EASTERLY 10-20KT BY 15Z THU IN MAGIC
VALLEY NEAR KJER AND UPPER TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K
FEET MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT TURNING TO SW 15-25KT BY 18Z THU.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....KA/AB
AVIATION.....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 292041 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN OFF THE PACIFIC.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTENSIFIES THURSDAY...IT WILL HELP INDUCE
A SOUTHEAST WIND IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP WARM
TEMPERATURES EVEN AS THE SUN FIGHTS TO GET THROUGH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS THU WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THU NIGHT A LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONTO THE PAC NW COAST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO MUCH OF SE OREGON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL AGAIN OWING TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CONTINUED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
EACH NIGHT WILL BE MILD BECAUSE OF WINDS AND CLOUDS...WITH
READINGS 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT...AND AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL SPLIT FROM THE MAIN
JET STREAM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
WILL TRACK FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
SOUTHERN IDAHO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS
TO THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH QPF AMOUNTS UP TO 1.00 INCH.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY START OUT AROUND 9000 FEET AND DROP TO
4500 FEET AS THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF. SNOW TOTALS ABOVE 7000
FEET COULD RANGE FROM 3-6 INCHES WITH THIS STORM WITH UP TO 8
INCHES ABOVE 9000 FEET. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY
SUNDAY EVENING. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC BRINGING IN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER NE
OREGON AND THE MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE
5000 FT. AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY MORNING CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL LESSEN AND THE SNOW LEVEL WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT
7000 FT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS AND NE OREGON MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE...BECOMING EASTERLY 10-20KT BY 15Z THU IN MAGIC
VALLEY NEAR KJER AND UPPER TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K
FEET MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT TURNING TO SW 15-25KT BY 18Z THU.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....KA/AB
AVIATION.....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 291557
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
957 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING...BUT THEY HAVE MOVED EAST INTO THE BOISE AND
WEST-CENTRAL MTNS AS OF 950 AM MDT. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY
AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN OFF THE PACIFIC ON WEAKLY RIDGING UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MTNS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE BOISE AND
WEST-CENTRAL MTNS. VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. WINDS ALOFT WEST AT 20-30 KTS THROUGH 10KFT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SW IDAHO THIS
MORNING SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 11Z. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS STALLED
NEAR JUST NORTHWEST OF BOISE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT AND MOVES NORTH OUR OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SETTING UP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR INCREASES SOUTHERLY WINDS /15-25 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS/. THIS SHOULD HELP GET THE TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY
AND KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST LATER IN THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY. THE
MODELS ARE BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY. THE FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO CROSS
SE OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SW IDAHO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO
DELAY THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION. THUS...THE FORECAST WAS
ADJUSTED TO KEEP IT DRY ACROSS SE OREGON/SW IDAHO THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SE OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND
FINALLY SPREADING THE SHOWERS INTO SW IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
INCREASING THE POPS IN SE OREGON. THE MODELS /ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/
ARE NOW HINTING AT A CLOSED LOW TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH SOUTHERN
IDAHO ON SATURDAY...THEN LIFTING IT NE INTO MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THEN FALL
TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO
PIN DOWN AMOUNTS AND WILL DEPEND ON THE LOW TRACK AND SNOW LEVELS
WHICH ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO ABOVE 6000 FEET. LATEST
MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
PROVIDING DRIER CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOIST
PACIFIC FLOW IS ALSO SHOWN TO REMAIN OVER WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN
OREGON...CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....BW





000
FXUS65 KBOI 290925
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
325 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SW IDAHO THIS
MORNING SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 11Z. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS STALLED
NEAR JUST NORTHWEST OF BOISE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT AND MOVES NORTH OUR OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SETTING UP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR INCREASES SOUTHERLY WINDS /15-25 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS/. THIS SHOULD HELP GET THE TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY
AND KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUDS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST LATER IN THE WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY. THE
MODELS ARE BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY. THE FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO CROSS
SE OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SW IDAHO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO
DELAY THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION. THUS...THE FORECAST WAS
ADJUSTED TO KEEP IT DRY ACROSS SE OREGON/SW IDAHO THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SE OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND
FINALLY SPREADING THE SHOWERS INTO SW IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
INCREASING THE POPS IN SE OREGON. THE MODELS /ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/
ARE NOW HINTING AT A CLOSED LOW TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH SOUTHERN
IDAHO ON SATURDAY...THEN LIFTING IT NE INTO MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THEN FALL
TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO
PIN DOWN AMOUNTS AND WILL DEPEND ON THE LOW TRACK AND SNOW LEVELS
WHICH ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO ABOVE 6000 FEET. LATEST
MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
PROVIDING DRIER CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOIST
PACIFIC FLOW IS ALSO SHOWN TO REMAIN OVER WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN
OREGON...CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN THE BOISE/WEST
CENTRAL MTNS /INCLUDING KMYL/ BECOMING ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW
IDAHO TODAY. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT 20-30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW





000
FXUS65 KBOI 290240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...AT 02Z SHOWERS WERE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS BAKER COUNTY
AND SHOULD GET INTO ADAMS COUNTY/ID BY 04Z...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
CURRENT FORECAST WHICH HAS HIGHEST POPS IN OUR NRN ZONES TONIGHT...
EXITING NEWD WEDNESDAY MORNING.  FLAT SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL ALSO EXIT EAST WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY REBUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND
SLIGHT WARMING COMPARED TO TODAY.  EVEN MORE WARMING THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...PLACING OUR CWA
UNDER SWLY FLOW.  LITTLE IF ANY FROST IN THE AG VALLEYS TONIGHT...
AND ONLY IN THE WRN MAGIC VALLEY.  NO FROST IN THE AG VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
NORTH OF A LINE FROM KBNO TO KONO TO KSUN. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS 10
KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT WEST 10 TO 20 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INLAND OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO TONIGHT AND WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED NORTH OF A LINE
FROM BURNS TO ONTARIO IN OREGON...AND NORTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY IN IDAHO. ON WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 7000 AND 8000
FEET MSL. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY...REACHING 70 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WEATHER WILL REMAIN
VERY UNSETTLED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND VERY
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
ALONG WITH GUSTY PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH SHOWERS SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL FALL TO AROUND 5000 FEET MSL BY SATURDAY. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING WINDY IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOIST FLOW...MOSTLY IN THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN SECTORS...AS A LOW AMPLITUDE DIRTY RIDGE DOMINATES.
EXPECT LIQUID PRECIPITATION BELOW 5000 FEET MSL...SNOW LEVEL RISING
TO 7000 FEET TUESDAY. THE TREASURE VALLEY WILL STAY DRY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BREEZY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S THROUGH 50S WITH ISOLATED
30S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S THROUGH 30S.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...JT
PREV LONG TERM....RD/WH/LC





000
FXUS65 KBOI 282057
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
257 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INLAND OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO TONIGHT AND WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED NORTH OF A LINE
FROM BURNS TO ONTARIO IN OREGON...AND NORTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY IN IDAHO. ON WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 7000 AND 8000
FEET. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY...REACHING 70 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WEATHER WILL REMAIN
VERY UNSETTLED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND VERY
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
SOUTHEAST OREGON ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ALONG
WITH GUSTY PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST WITH SHOWERS SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO BY FRIDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY SATURDAY. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING WINDY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SOMEWHAT MOIST CWA...MOSTLY IN THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTORS...AS A LOW AMPLITUDE DIRTY RIDGE
DOMINATES. EXPECT LIQUID PRECIPITATION BELOW 5000 FT...INCREASING TO
BELOW 7000 BY TUESDAY...AND A MIXTURE ABOVE BOTH LEVELS...SNOW IN
THE MUCH HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TREASURE VALLEY WILL NOT SEE ANY OF
THE ABOVE PRECIPITATION CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BREEZY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40`S AND 50`S WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF NEAR
FREEZING. LOW`S WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20`S AND 30`S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 15K FT EXCEPT BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS NORTH OF A KBNO-KBOI-KSUN LINE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER
00Z. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT WEST 10 TO 15
KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM....RD/WH
AVIATION.....RD





000
FXUS65 KBOI 281553
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
953 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF ANNA ARE CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF 50N
BETWEEN 140W AND 130W IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE
B.C./NW U.S. COAST. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF
OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER B.C./WA/N OR AND LOSES AMPLITUDE
OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF A
BURNS-ONTARIO-IDAHO CITY LINE AND END FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA SHOULD SEE ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
MONDAY...AND HIGHS WILL WARM AN ADDITIONAL 10 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUD THIS
AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF A KBNO-KONO-KSNT LINE AFTER
18Z. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT 10-
20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO FREEZING AT 3
AM IN THE VALLEYS. MID CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT
THE TEMPERATURES IN THE TREASURE VALLEY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND
IT/S LIKELY THE TEMPERATURES WON`T BE QUITE AS COLD AS FORECAST. THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW FREEZING
THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL BE WARMER BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND VERTICAL LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING
BURNS...BAKER CITY...AND MCCALL. THE FRONT WILL HERALD WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH DUE TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHEAST
OREGON ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ALONG WITH GUSTY
PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
WITH SHOWERS SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY EVENING. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 5000
FEET ON SATURDAY. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BECOMING WINDY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PUSH A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE AREA FOR A CHANCE
OF MORE SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN MTNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION.....TL
REV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....BW





000
FXUS65 KBOI 281553
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
953 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF ANNA ARE CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF 50N
BETWEEN 140W AND 130W IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE
B.C./NW U.S. COAST. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF
OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER B.C./WA/N OR AND LOSES AMPLITUDE
OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF A
BURNS-ONTARIO-IDAHO CITY LINE AND END FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA SHOULD SEE ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
MONDAY...AND HIGHS WILL WARM AN ADDITIONAL 10 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUD THIS
AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF A KBNO-KONO-KSNT LINE AFTER
18Z. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT 10-
20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO FREEZING AT 3
AM IN THE VALLEYS. MID CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT
THE TEMPERATURES IN THE TREASURE VALLEY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND
IT/S LIKELY THE TEMPERATURES WON`T BE QUITE AS COLD AS FORECAST. THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW FREEZING
THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL BE WARMER BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND VERTICAL LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING
BURNS...BAKER CITY...AND MCCALL. THE FRONT WILL HERALD WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH DUE TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHEAST
OREGON ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ALONG WITH GUSTY
PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
WITH SHOWERS SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY EVENING. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 5000
FEET ON SATURDAY. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BECOMING WINDY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PUSH A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE AREA FOR A CHANCE
OF MORE SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN MTNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION.....TL
REV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....BW





000
FXUS65 KBOI 280916
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
316 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO FREEZING AT 3 AM IN THE
VALLEYS. MID CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT THE
TEMPERATURES IN THE TREASURE VALLEY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND
IT/S LIKELY THE TEMPERATURES WON`T BE QUITE AS COLD AS FORECAST.
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW
FREEZING THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL BE WARMER BUT STILL A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND VERTICAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING
BURNS...BAKER CITY...AND MCCALL. THE FRONT WILL HERALD WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH DUE TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHEAST
OREGON ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ALONG WITH GUSTY
PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
WITH SHOWERS SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY EVENING. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 5000
FEET ON SATURDAY. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BECOMING WINDY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PUSH A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE AREA FOR A CHANCE
OF MORE SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN MTNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF A KBNO-KBOI-
KSUN LINE WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE LINE. ISOLATED SHOWERS
NORTH OF A KBNO-KONO-KSNT LINE AFTER 18Z. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS 10
KNOTS OR LESS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING IDZ012-014-016.
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW





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