000
FXUS65 KBOI 212029
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
229 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LARGE STRONG CUT OFF LOW
JUST OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT SE
TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT THEN STALL GENERALLY OVER WASHINGTON
AND OREGON TOMORROW. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH SE
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND SW IDAHO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST 30 TO 40 MPH ALONG AND A FEW HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM BURNS TO ONTARIO TO FAIRFIELD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ALSO CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION...LOWERING HIGH TEMPS BY 20 TO 25 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THU
AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BY 5 TO 8
DEGREES ON THU...COMPARED TO WED/S HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
IN THE SW FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL OR SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BY SUNDAY THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MONDAY AND
BEYOND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO ZONAL...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HEIGHTS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SE TO SW SURFACE WINDS AT 10-20 KTS WITH WINDS
REACHING 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. AT 20Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SPREADING INTO SE OREGON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
KBNO-KBKE BETWEEN 20-21Z AND THEN PUSH THROUGH SW IDAHO FROM 00Z-03Z. SURFACE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NW AT 15-25 KTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL OREGON
AND THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SW WINDS ALOFT AVERAGING 25 KTS UP
TO 10K FEET MSL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....CB/JA
AVIATION.....CB
000
FXUS65 KBOI 211547
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
947 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING WEATHER DAY STILL ON TAP WITH A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT IMPACTING THE
REGION TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ON TO THE PACIFIC
COAST THIS MORNING...WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS STILL OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL MAKE VERY RAPID PROGRESS AND WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL BE
NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL...PARTICULARLY IN SE OREGON...AND THERE COULD
BE ISOLATED INCIDENCES OF BLOWING DUST. BIG COOL DOWN COMING
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. NO CHANGES
PLANNED THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR TODAY UNDER BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SE TO
SW SURFACE WINDS AT 10-20 KTS WITH WINDS REACHING 20-30 KTS ACROSS
SE OREGON. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH KBNO-KBKE 22Z-23Z...AND
THEN INTO SW IDAHO BY 01-02Z. SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE NW AT 10-20 KTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL OREGON AND THE WEST
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SW WINDS ALOFT AVERAGING 25 KTS UP TO 10K
FEET MSL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST WARM
DAY FOR A WHILE BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS DRAMATIC COOLING TO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACH OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN HARNEY AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTIES. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SE OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND SW IDAHO THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
WIND ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST TO 40 MPH WITH THE FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF
BURNS...ONTARIO...AND FAIRFIELD. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON
AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 DEGREES COOLER WITH VALLEY HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL STALL
OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON. MODELS AGREE THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER
TO AROUND 4000 FEET WITH SNOW SHOWERS OR MIX RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
SOME AREAS...SUCH AS BAKER CITY AND MCCALL. NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER OREGON/WASHINGTON THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ALBERTA BY EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY TROUGH
WILL...HOWEVER...QUICKLY MOVE INLAND /OVER OREGON/ FROM THE PACIFIC
- ALLOWING COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....CB
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....MT
000
FXUS65 KBOI 210942
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST WARM
DAY FOR A WHILE BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS DRAMATIC COOLING TO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACH OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN HARNEY AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTIES. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SE OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND SW IDAHO THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
WIND ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST TO 40 MPH WITH THE FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF
BURNS...ONTARIO...AND FAIRFIELD. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON
AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 DEGREES COOLER WITH VALLEY HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL STALL
OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON. MODELS AGREE THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER
TO AROUND 4000 FEET WITH SNOW SHOWERS OR MIX RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
SOME AREAS...SUCH AS BAKER CITY AND MCCALL. NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER OREGON/WASHINGTON THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ALBERTA BY EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY TROUGH
WILL...HOWEVER...QUICKLY MOVE INLAND /OVER OREGON/ FROM THE PACIFIC
- ALLOWING COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 20Z - WIDESPREAD VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SE OREGON. SE TO SW SFC WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. AFTER 20Z - FRONT TO REACH KBNO AND KBKE
AROUND 23Z THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EAST INTO SW IDAHO
APPROXIMATELY 02Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...MAINLY ACROSS SE OREGON AND NRN TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. SFC
WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SE TO SW WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ACROSS SE
OREGON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 30 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....MT
AVIATION.....MT
000
FXUS65 KBOI 210940
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST WARM
DAY FOR A WHILE BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS DRAMATIC COOLING TO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACH OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN HARNEY AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTIES. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SE OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND SW IDAHO THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
WIND ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST TO 40 MPH WITH THE FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF
BURNS...ONTARIO...AND FAIRFIELD. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON
AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 DEGREES COOLER WITH VALLEY HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL STALL
OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON. MODELS AGREE THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER
TO AROUND 4000 FEET WITH SNOW SHOWERS OR MIX RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
SOME AREAS...SUCH AS BAKER CITY AND MCCALL. NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ALTHOUGH LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER OREGON/WASHINGTON THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ALBERTA BY EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY TROUGH
WILL...HOWEVER...QUICKLY MOVE INLAND /OVER OREGON/ FROM THE PACIFIC
- ALLOWING COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 20Z - WIDESPREAD VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SE OREGON. SE TO SW SFC WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. AFTER 20Z - FRONT TO REACH KBNO AND KBKE
AROUND 23Z THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EAST INTO SW IDAHO
APPROXIMATELY 02Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...MAINLY ACROSS SE OREGON AND NRN TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. SFC
WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SE TO SW WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ACROSS SE
OREGON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 30 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....MT
AVIATION.....MT
000
FXUS65 KBOI 210307
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
907 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL WARM TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY. EVENING SOUNDING WAS
CAPPED AND DRY. CLOUDS TODAY WERE LIMITED TO SOME CU OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...HIGHER BOISE MOUNTAINS...AND CLOSE TO THE NV
BORDER IN THE SOUTHERN SAWTOOTHS. CURRENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SE OR SW AT 15 TO LOCALLY 30 MPH TO WEST
OR NW 15-25 MPH. TIMING BURNS AND BAKER CITY 2-4PM PDT IN THE MID-
AFTERNOON...MCCALL TO BOISE 7-9 PM IN THE EARLY EVENING AND TWIN
FALLS/JEROME IN THE LATE EVENING 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT. THIS IS A
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WNW SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 15
KTS OR LESS. SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNSET.
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AFTER 18Z
TUESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME SW AT 25 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL AFTER 06Z. WINDS SWITCH TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KBNO AND KBKE AROUND 22Z THEN KBOI
AROUND 03Z AND THE MAGIC VALLEY AROUND 05Z. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND BRINGS SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TOMORROW BEFORE A LARGE STRONG CUTOFF LOW MOVES IN LATE TUE AND
WED TO DRAMATICALLY COOL US. WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OREGON. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO NW AND
BECOME GUSTY FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE CWA...MAINLY IN BAKER COUNTY AND IN THE MTNS OF SW
IDAHO. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER TODAY...
BEFORE DROPPING ABOUT 25 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BE BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
UPPER TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS...AS NW WINDS CONTINUE.
THESE WINDS WILL BE DUE TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AS
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LOW WORKS TOGETHER WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO PROVIDE LIFT.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A CUT OFF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LOW
PRESSURE CIRCULATION WHICH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO SE OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO
MTNS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT INTO MORE OF AN
OPEN WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THURSDAY /AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/
WHEN THE CORE OF THE LOW IS CLOSEST TO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO.
EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS REACHING
NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....CB/DD
000
FXUS65 KBOI 202043
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
243 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND BRINGS SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TOMORROW BEFORE A LARGE STRONG CUTOFF LOW MOVES IN LATE TUE AND
WED TO DRAMATICALLY COOL US. WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OREGON. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO NW AND
BECOME GUSTY FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE CWA...MAINLY IN BAKER COUNTY AND IN THE MTNS OF SW
IDAHO. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER TODAY...
BEFORE DROPPING ABOUT 25 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BE BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
UPPER TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS...AS NW WINDS CONTINUE.
THESE WINDS WILL BE DUE TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AS
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LOW WORKS TOGETHER WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO PROVIDE LIFT.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A CUT OFF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LOW
PRESSURE CIRCULATION WHICH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO SE OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO
MTNS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT INTO MORE OF AN
OPEN WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THURSDAY /AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/
WHEN THE CORE OF THE LOW IS CLOSEST TO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO.
EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS REACHING
NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WNW SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNSET AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS AFTER 18Z
TUESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME SW AT 25 KTS
UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL AFTER 06Z.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....CB/DD
AVIATION.....CB
000
FXUS65 KBOI 201541
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
941 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR THE NRN MTNS...AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AS WE WARM UP 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
WHERE WE WERE YDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. TOMORROW...THE MUCH-DISCUSSED
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW GETS CLOSER...AND DRAWS VERY WARM AIR UP
FROM THE SOUTH. WE WILL SEE HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW
THAN TODAY...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE. ALL THIS IS ALREADY WELL-
HANDLED IN THE FORECAST AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT W/NW
SURFACE WINDS - GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ALOFT WILL BECOME NW AT 20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL AFTER 06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE
TRAVERSING THE REGION TODAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
DIGGING UPPER LOW TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA
REGION. VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON AND
80S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AS
IT DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL START TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN HARNEY AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE ITS TREK EASTWARD INTO IDAHO TUESDAY EVENING - WARRANTING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN TERRAIN.
MEANWHILE...POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL SHOW A MARKED INCREASE IN SPEED
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ANTICIPATED ACROSS SE OREGON. FRONT WILL EXIT
TO THE EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE PARENT LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER
EASTERN OREGON. WITH COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES ACROSS LOWER VALLEYS AND 50 DEGREES
THROUGHOUT MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. EXPECT WEDNESDAY/S TEMPERATURES TO
AVERAGE 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOL AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THE DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....CB
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....MT
000
FXUS65 KBOI 200941
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE
TRAVERSING THE REGION TODAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
DIGGING UPPER LOW TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA
REGION. VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON AND
80S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AS
IT DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL START TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN HARNEY AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE ITS TREK EASTWARD INTO IDAHO TUESDAY EVENING - WARRANTING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN TERRAIN.
MEANWHILE...POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL SHOW A MARKED INCREASE IN SPEED
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ANTICIPATED ACROSS SE OREGON. FRONT WILL EXIT
TO THE EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE PARENT LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER
EASTERN OREGON. WITH COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES ACROSS LOWER VALLEYS AND 50 DEGREES
THROUGHOUT MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. EXPECT WEDNESDAY/S TEMPERATURES TO
AVERAGE 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOL AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THE DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT W/NW
SURFACE WINDS - GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT
WILL AVERAGE 10 KTS AT 10K FT MSL THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....MT
AVIATION.....MT
000
FXUS65 KBOI 200331
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
931 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
TREASURE VALLEY AND CENTRAL OREGON...A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. MINOR UPDATE FOR IMPROVING WEATHER. WINDS AROUND 30 MPH
HAVE DROPPED OF TO 10-20 MPH AS OF 9 PM AND WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS IN THE FORECAST AND IN LINE WITH WINDS ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR. NW SURFACE WINDS AT 10-20 KTS
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. NORTHERLY
WINDS ALOFT AVERAGING 10 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...USHERING IN A
COUPLE DAYS OF WARMING. THIS WILL ALSO DECREASE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. IN FACT...AFTER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EAST PORTION OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...
THE NEXT CHANCE WILL BE IN THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE MOVES OFF AND A DEEP STRONG UPPER LOW
MOVES IN FROM THE NW. TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS MONDAY
FROM 75 TO 80 AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THEN ALL THE WAY UP TO THE
MID 80S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY TUESDAY. EASTERN OREGON WILL BEGIN
TO COOL LATE TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES.
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AND
WINDS TOMORROW AND TUESDAY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A DEEP CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND AROUND 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN TUESDAYS TEMPS.
THE CUT OFF LOW WILL STALL OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY SATURDAY THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTH...THOUGH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY SUNDAY.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....CB/SP
000
FXUS65 KBOI 192058
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
258 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...USHERING IN A
COUPLE DAYS OF WARMING. THIS WILL ALSO DECREASE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. IN FACT...AFTER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EAST PORTION OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...
THE NEXT CHANCE WILL BE IN THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE MOVES OFF AND A DEEP STRONG UPPER LOW
MOVES IN FROM THE NW. TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS MONDAY
FROM 75 TO 80 AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THEN ALL THE WAY UP TO THE
MID 80S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY TUESDAY. EASTERN OREGON WILL BEGIN
TO COOL LATE TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES.
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AND
WINDS TOMORROW AND TUESDAY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A DEEP CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND AROUND 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN TUESDAYS TEMPS.
THE CUT OFF LOW WILL STALL OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY SATURDAY THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTH...THOUGH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR UNDER SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. NW SURFACE WINDS AT 10-20 KTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS
TO 25 KTS...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT AVERAGING
10 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....CB/SP
AVIATION.....CB
000
FXUS65 KBOI 191550
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
950 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...BREEZY THIS MORNING...SHOULD BE JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA MUCH OF TODAY IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
GETTING TOO WARM AGAIN TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 40S AND 50S IN THE MTNS. SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE BOISE MTNS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALL THIS WELL-HANDLED...AND NO UPDATE IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR UNDER SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. NW SURFACE WINDS AT 10-20 KTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS
TO 25 KTS...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT AVERAGING
10 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THE
IDAHO SIDE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE OREGON
SIDE. AIR MASS WILL STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS. WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE SNAKE BASIN
BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY. WINDS LOOK A LITTLE TOO STRONG FOR
VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY MORNING. TEMPS TODAY
AGAIN A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL.
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
COMES IN FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER
AIR MONDAY AND LESS WIND THAN TODAY...BUT NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
ALOFT WILL DELAY MAIN WARMING UNTIL TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY..FAIR WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND LINGER AROUND THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON
AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN
THE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM TO CAUSE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE MORE UNSTABLE. WE ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN THE CENTER OF THE DEEP LOW MOVES
DIRECTLY OVER EASTERN OREGON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....CB
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JB
000
FXUS65 KBOI 190901
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
301 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THE
IDAHO SIDE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE OREGON
SIDE. AIR MASS WILL STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS. WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE SNAKE BASIN
BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY. WINDS LOOK A LITTLE TOO STRONG FOR
VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY MORNING. TEMPS TODAY
AGAIN A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL.
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
COMES IN FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER
AIR MONDAY AND LESS WIND THAN TODAY...BUT NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
ALOFT WILL DELAY MAIN WARMING UNTIL TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY..FAIR WEATHER AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND LINGER AROUND THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON
AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN
THE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM TO CAUSE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE MORE UNSTABLE. WE ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN THE CENTER OF THE DEEP LOW MOVES
DIRECTLY OVER EASTERN OREGON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WITH BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY NOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 KTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 35
KTS VCTY KMUO...KJER...AND KTWF. THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY SHOWS LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION.....JB
000
FXUS65 KBOI 190247
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
847 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED 30+DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES AND A COUPLE CELLS WITH 40+DBZ ABOUT TO
CROSS SR 51 BETWEEN RIDDLE AND MOUNTAIN CITY BY 9 PM MDT. ISOLATED
WEAK ECHOES WERE ALSO OVER THE I-84 CORRIDOR BETWEEN BAKER CITY
AND NAMPA...JUST SOME VIRGA ON THE FRUITLAND WEB CAM AND LOCAL
WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT DEAD-I RAWS...WERE OBSERVED WITH THESE
EARLIER THIS EVENING. EVENING WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDING WAS MORE
STABLE TODAY +1.2C...DRIER WITH 0.39 INCHES OF PW...AND CAPPED FOR
CONVECTION. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND LIFT WITH A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE OVER OREGON THIS EVENING WILL CROSS SW IDAHO THROUGH 9 AM
SUNDAY. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BELIEVE THE FORECAST IS
ON THE RIGHT TRACK TO MENTION THUNDER ONLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND AFTER NOON SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GUSTY NW
WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN NW ACROSS THE TREASURE AND WEST
ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN REBUILD A BIT STRONGER FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOLID 15-25 MPH IN OPEN AREAS...AND GUSTS TO 35
MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN ELMORE COUNTY. THIS IS ON TRACK
WITH CURRENT FORECAST FOR NO UPDATES.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND ALONG THE
IDAHO/NEVADA BORDER THIS EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MOVING INTO SW IDAHO AFTER 09Z. WNW SURFACE WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 15 KTS AT 10K FT MSL. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS ON
SUNDAY FROM THE W-NW AVERAGING 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS AND BRING A RENEWED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. FOR SUNDAY...AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST...THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY IN SW IDAHO.
COOLER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A SHORT-LIVED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE QUICKLY
THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING A WARM UP OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES AND A
GREATLY DECREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS COULD REACH NEAR 30 MPH IN THE UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE BRIEF WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH THE GREAT BASIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 6-8 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE WASHINGTON
COASTLINE WILL BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...DROPPING TEMPS BY AROUND 15 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS CUT
OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING TO PIN DOWN THE MOTION OF THE LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL BE STALLED OUT OVER THE PAC NW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS...MAINLY OVER SE OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM
THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....CB/DD
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