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000
FXUS65 KBOI 082133
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
233 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VERY QUIET WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID
WEEK. BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THE EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG.
THINK THE AIRMASS HAS FINALLY STARTED TO PRIME ITSELF WITH THE
INVERTED CONDITIONS AS EASTERLY WINDS BRING A COOL MOIST FLOW DOWN
THE VALLEY FROM EASTERN IDAHO TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LAST TWO
MORNINGS THE STRATUS PUSHES FURTHER WEST...BY TUESDAY MORNING IT
SHOULD FINALLY PUSH INTO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE VALLEY HAS SEEN
LAST FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. THE INVERSION
WILL STREGNTHEN AS 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE
OF THE LOWER VALLEYS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
THINKING THAT VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO AN
INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES
AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE INVERSION WILL BREAK AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM. MODELS SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING AT LEAST OVER NORTHERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY...BUT THIS RIDGE WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE CURRENT RIDGE AND MODELS ALSO HINTING THAT
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE ZONAL...THEREFORE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN ZONES FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND DRY EVERYWHERE ELSE. TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. SURFACE BASED TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN THE SNAKE
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE NIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE KBNO...KBKE AND KMYL AREAS. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO DISSIPATE SOME OF THE FOG AND STRATUS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN IN THE EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NORTHWEST 10-20
KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.
&&

.AIR STAGNATION...
WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE MID LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS
HELPING TO STREGNTHEN THE INVERSION ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS
WITH PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
THROUGH THE MAGIC VALLEY...ALONG WITH THE LONG VALLEY AND BAKER. MIXING
HEIGHTS AROUND 1000 FEET ARE EXPECTED WITH TRANSPORT WINDS FROM
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...CR
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA
AIR STAGNATION...CR





000
FXUS65 KBOI 081623
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
923 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE...WEBCAMS AND SFC OBS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS FOG EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN IDAHO THROUGH TWIN FALLS TOWARDS GLENNS FERRY AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE CAMAS PRAIRIE. THIS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
NOON THEN START TO DIMINISH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE BOISE AREA
DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY IN THAT THE LOWER AIRMASS IS NOT
SATURATED LIKE IT WAS INDICATING YESTERDAY...SO BASED ON THAT AND
FULL SUN THIS MORNING...DONT EXPECT IT TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER
TREASURE VALLEY. RIDGE CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND WARMER AIR STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AROUND 700MB KEEP INVERSION IN PLACE. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THIS TREND...SO NO CHANGES EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF THE
ST/FOG...TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. SURFACE BASED TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS EXPECT AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
NIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE
KBNO...KBKE AND KMYL AREAS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
MIXING TO DISSIPATE THE FOG AND STRATUS BY 21Z...BUT WILL REDEVELOP
AGAIN IN THE EVENING. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT NORTHWEST 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...
INVERSION TO CONTINUE TO STREGTHEN AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AT 700MB. TRANSPORT WINDS REMAINING LIGHT
EASTERLY AT THE SFC AT UNDER 10 MPH THEN SHIFTING LIGHT NORTHERLY
5-10KFT. MIXING HGTS EXPECTED AROUND 1000-1500 FT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE STILL BUILDING...AND STRENGTHENING THE
INVERSION.  SEVERAL WX DIFFERENCES FROM LAST NIGHT AT 09Z.  AN AREA
OF FOG/STRATUS HAS FORMED IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND SLOWLY EXPANDING
WEST.  FAIRFIELD/ID IS MUCH COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT...NEAR ZERO THIS
MORNING VS MID 20S LAST NIGHT WHEN WINDS WERE NEAR 15 MPH.  WINDS
HAVE BECOME NE AT JEROME/ID DRAINING FROM THE COLD CAMAS PRAIRIE.
WITH MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO FORECAST NE WIND WE CAN ALSO EXPECT
A CONTINUATION OF COLD TEMPS IN THE CAMAS PRAIRIE THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS FOR THE FOG/STRATUS...WE SEE THAT NAM AND NAMBC ARE THE ONLY
MODELS THAT KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN THROUGHOUT THE SNAKE BASIN TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THAT SUGGESTS COLD FOGGY AIR WILL SPREAD OVER NEARLY ALL OF
THE LOWER SNAKE BASIN.  BUT THOSE TWO MODELS ALSO SHOW IDAHO CITY
COLDER THAN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY TODAY WHICH IS PROBABLY
INCORRECT.  NO OTHER MODELS DO THIS.  YESTERDAY IDAHO CITY HAD A
HIGH OF 52 VS ONLY UPPER 40S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...AND SIMILAR
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. NO PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.  LIGHT EAST WINDS
TODAY AND TUESDAY...EXCEPT MODERATE NE NEAR JEROME/ID.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DID
ADJUST TEMPERATURES A BIT HIGHER ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS MODEL
SOUNDING ARE SHOWING THE STRATUS DECK BREAKING UP. INCREASING EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL ALSO LIMIT FOG/STRATUS
COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY EXCEPT IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE INVERSION WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY BUT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. 00Z GFS DOESN/T EVEN HAVE THE
TROUGH MAKING IT THAT FAR INLAND. 00Z ECMWF DOES BRING IN THE THOUGH
THOUGH BUT WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINNING SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS TO LAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...CR
AVIATION.....JA
AIR STAGNATION...CR
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS





000
FXUS65 KBOI 080941
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE STILL BUILDING...AND STRENGTHENING THE
INVERSION.  SEVERAL WX DIFFERENCES FROM LAST NIGHT AT 09Z.  AN AREA
OF FOG/STRATUS HAS FORMED IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND SLOWLY EXPANDING
WEST.  FAIRFIELD/ID IS MUCH COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT...NEAR ZERO THIS
MORNING VS MID 20S LAST NIGHT WHEN WINDS WERE NEAR 15 MPH.  WINDS
HAVE BECOME NE AT JEROME/ID DRAINING FROM THE COLD CAMAS PRAIRIE.
WITH MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO FORECAST NE WIND WE CAN ALSO EXPECT
A CONTINUATION OF COLD TEMPS IN THE CAMAS PRAIRIE THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS FOR THE FOG/STRATUS...WE SEE THAT NAM AND NAMBC ARE THE ONLY
MODELS THAT KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN THROUGHOUT THE SNAKE BASIN TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THAT SUGGESTS COLD FOGGY AIR WILL SPREAD OVER NEARLY ALL OF
THE LOWER SNAKE BASIN.  BUT THOSE TWO MODELS ALSO SHOW IDAHO CITY
COLDER THAN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY TODAY WHICH IS PROBABLY
INCORRECT.  NO OTHER MODELS DO THIS.  YESTERDAY IDAHO CITY HAD A
HIGH OF 52 VS ONLY UPPER 40S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...AND SIMILAR
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. NO PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.  LIGHT EAST WINDS
TODAY AND TUESDAY...EXCEPT MODERATE NE NEAR JEROME/ID.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DID
ADJUST TEMPERATURES A BIT HIGHER ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS MODEL
SOUNDING ARE SHOWING THE STRATUS DECK BREAKING UP. INCREASING EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL ALSO LIMIT FOG/STRATUS
COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY EXCEPT IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE INVERSION WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY BUT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. 00Z GFS DOESN/T EVEN HAVE THE
TROUGH MAKING IT THAT FAR INLAND. 00Z ECMWF DOES BRING IN THE THOUGH
THOUGH BUT WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINNING SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS TO LAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. EXPECT AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS
THROUGHOUT THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE KBNO..KBKE..AND KMYL AREAS. FOG AND STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 21Z...BUT IT WILL REDEVELOP THIS EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 10-
20 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. LOWER VALLEYS WILL SEE
MIXING HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 1500 FEET AGL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EAST WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS.
WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND EAST WINDS THE EXTENT OF FOG/STRATUS LATER
THIS WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS
AIR STAGNATION...LC





000
FXUS65 KBOI 080353
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
853 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST...SEEING
A CONTINUING FEED OF HIGH CLOUDS IN NORTHERLY FLOW. SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT THIS IS INHIBITING THE ONSET OF FOG THIS EVENING. AREAS
OF FOG OR A LOW STRATUS WILL FORM ACROSS LOWER VALLEYS /FOG HAS
ALREADY SET UP IN THE LONG VALLEY/ BY MONDAY MORNING AS NEAR-
SURFACE LAYER IS FAIRLY MOIST /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 30S IN THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/ AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. HAVE MADE A FEW UPDATES TO
TIMING OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE WEISER
VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. SURFACE BASED TEMPERATURE INVERSION
DEVELOPING TONIGHT WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
UNDER WARM HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. EXPECT AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG AND LOW
STRATUS THROUGHOUT THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE KBNO..KBKE..AND
KMYL AREAS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD INDUCE ENOUGH MIXING TO DISSIPATE
THE FOG AND STRATUS BY ABOUT 21Z MONDAY...BUT IT WILL REDEVELOP
MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT...NORTHWEST 10-20KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...PEAKING ON TUESDAY. LOWER VALLEYS WILL SEE AFTERNOON
MIXING HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 1500 FEET AGL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE UPPER TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC. INVERSION
WILL HOLD INTO NEXT WEEKEND /IF NOT BEYOND/ THOUGH WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND EASTERLY WINDS CONFIDENCE ON FOG/STRATUS EVOLUTION IS
LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUING TO
WARM OVERNIGHT. SO STRONG INVERSION TO BE IN PLACE STARTING
TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE FOG AND
WHEN DOES IT BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GIVEN
THAT THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS JUST NOW DISSIPATING FROM THE
MAGIC VALLEY WESTWARD TO MOUNTAIN HOME...THIS MAY BE THE PRECURSOR
TO WHATS TO COME. AS THE SUN SETS...LOOK FOR THE FOG TO SPREAD
BACK INTO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY ALONG WITH THE BURNS/BAKER AND
MCCALL REGIONS. SOMEWHAT MORE CONFIDENT ON EXTENT OF THE FOG THAN
THAN THE TIMING OF WHEN IT SHOULD DISSIPATE...NO SNOW/MOISTURE ON
THE GROUND WOULD MAY HELP LIMIT THE HOURS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
ANY LOW ELEVATION SURFACE MOISTURE WOULD HAVE TO ADVECT FROM
EASTERN IDAHO IN THE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OR DRAINAGE OUT
OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS...THAT WOULD KEEP
FOG/STRATUS IN THE PICTURE. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES
DIFFICULT AS IF FOG/CLOUDS DONT BREAK TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE
TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY.

EVEN WARMER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY ONLY
INCREASING THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION...SO EXPECTING SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING WITH EXTENSIVE FOG SOON AFTER
SUNSET...LASTING INTO THE AT LEAST MID/LATE MORNING.


LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CAN EXPECT VALLEY INVERSIONS UNDER
THE RIDGE ALONG WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD THE VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG WILL GET UNDER THE
INVERSION SO FORECAST VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAS NOT BEEN EASY. STILL
TRENDING THAT VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S AND MAYBE THE
LOW 4OS...BUT IF THERE IS NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION AS WE ARE THINKING...VALLEY HIGHS COULD BE MUCH WARMER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE INVERSION WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW
50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. INCREASED POPS SATURDAY AM WITH BEST CHANCES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AFTER THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
AIR STAGNATION...DG
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JA/JC





000
FXUS65 KBOI 080353
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
853 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST...SEEING
A CONTINUING FEED OF HIGH CLOUDS IN NORTHERLY FLOW. SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT THIS IS INHIBITING THE ONSET OF FOG THIS EVENING. AREAS
OF FOG OR A LOW STRATUS WILL FORM ACROSS LOWER VALLEYS /FOG HAS
ALREADY SET UP IN THE LONG VALLEY/ BY MONDAY MORNING AS NEAR-
SURFACE LAYER IS FAIRLY MOIST /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 30S IN THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/ AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. HAVE MADE A FEW UPDATES TO
TIMING OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE WEISER
VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. SURFACE BASED TEMPERATURE INVERSION
DEVELOPING TONIGHT WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
UNDER WARM HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. EXPECT AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG AND LOW
STRATUS THROUGHOUT THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE KBNO..KBKE..AND
KMYL AREAS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD INDUCE ENOUGH MIXING TO DISSIPATE
THE FOG AND STRATUS BY ABOUT 21Z MONDAY...BUT IT WILL REDEVELOP
MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT...NORTHWEST 10-20KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...PEAKING ON TUESDAY. LOWER VALLEYS WILL SEE AFTERNOON
MIXING HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 1500 FEET AGL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE UPPER TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC. INVERSION
WILL HOLD INTO NEXT WEEKEND /IF NOT BEYOND/ THOUGH WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND EASTERLY WINDS CONFIDENCE ON FOG/STRATUS EVOLUTION IS
LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUING TO
WARM OVERNIGHT. SO STRONG INVERSION TO BE IN PLACE STARTING
TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE FOG AND
WHEN DOES IT BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GIVEN
THAT THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS JUST NOW DISSIPATING FROM THE
MAGIC VALLEY WESTWARD TO MOUNTAIN HOME...THIS MAY BE THE PRECURSOR
TO WHATS TO COME. AS THE SUN SETS...LOOK FOR THE FOG TO SPREAD
BACK INTO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY ALONG WITH THE BURNS/BAKER AND
MCCALL REGIONS. SOMEWHAT MORE CONFIDENT ON EXTENT OF THE FOG THAN
THAN THE TIMING OF WHEN IT SHOULD DISSIPATE...NO SNOW/MOISTURE ON
THE GROUND WOULD MAY HELP LIMIT THE HOURS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
ANY LOW ELEVATION SURFACE MOISTURE WOULD HAVE TO ADVECT FROM
EASTERN IDAHO IN THE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OR DRAINAGE OUT
OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS...THAT WOULD KEEP
FOG/STRATUS IN THE PICTURE. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES
DIFFICULT AS IF FOG/CLOUDS DONT BREAK TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE
TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY.

EVEN WARMER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY ONLY
INCREASING THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION...SO EXPECTING SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING WITH EXTENSIVE FOG SOON AFTER
SUNSET...LASTING INTO THE AT LEAST MID/LATE MORNING.


LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CAN EXPECT VALLEY INVERSIONS UNDER
THE RIDGE ALONG WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD THE VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG WILL GET UNDER THE
INVERSION SO FORECAST VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAS NOT BEEN EASY. STILL
TRENDING THAT VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S AND MAYBE THE
LOW 4OS...BUT IF THERE IS NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION AS WE ARE THINKING...VALLEY HIGHS COULD BE MUCH WARMER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE INVERSION WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW
50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. INCREASED POPS SATURDAY AM WITH BEST CHANCES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AFTER THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
AIR STAGNATION...DG
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JA/JC





000
FXUS65 KBOI 072109
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
209 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUING TO
WARM OVERNIGHT. SO STRONG INVERSION TO BE IN PLACE STARTING
TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE FOG AND
WHEN DOES IT BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GIVEN
THAT THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS JUST NOW DISSIPATING FROM THE
MAGIC VALLEY WESTWARD TO MOUNTAIN HOME...THIS MAY BE THE PRECURSOR
TO WHATS TO COME. AS THE SUN SETS...LOOK FOR THE FOG TO SPREAD
BACK INTO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY ALONG WITH THE BURNS/BAKER AND
MCCALL REGIONS. SOMEWHAT MORE CONFIDENT ON EXTENT OF THE FOG THAN
THAN THE TIMING OF WHEN IT SHOULD DISSIPATE...NO SNOW/MOISTURE ON
THE GROUND WOULD MAY HELP LIMIT THE HOURS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
ANY LOW ELEVATION SURFACE MOISTURE WOULD HAVE TO ADVECT FROM
EASTERN IDAHO IN THE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OR DRAINAGE OUT
OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS...THAT WOULD KEEP
FOG/STRATUS IN THE PICTURE. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES
DIFFICULT AS IF FOG/CLOUDS DONT BREAK TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE
TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY.

EVEN WARMER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY ONLY
INCREASING THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION...SO EXPECTING SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING WITH EXTENSIVE FOG SOON AFTER
SUNSET...LASTING INTO THE AT LEAST MID/LATE MORNING.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CAN EXPECT VALLEY INVERSIONS UNDER
THE RIDGE ALONG WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD THE VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG WILL GET UNDER THE
INVERSION SO FORECAST VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAS NOT BEEN EASY. STILL
TRENDING THAT VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S AND MAYBE THE
LOW 4OS...BUT IF THERE IS NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION AS WE ARE THINKING...VALLEY HIGHS COULD BE MUCH WARMER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE INVERSION WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW
50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. INCREASED POPS SATURDAY AM WITH BEST CHANCES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AFTER THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. VALLEY INVERSIONS SETTING UP UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG
AND STRATUS WILL BE. LOW STRATUS AND FOG LINGERS IN THE SNAKE
RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN KMUO AND KJER THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THAT
IT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT ALL TAF
SITES TO HAVE FOG BY MONDAY MORNING...BUT TIMING OF ONSET MAY BE
OFF. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...CR
LONG TERM....JA/JC
AVIATION.....JA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 072109
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
209 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUING TO
WARM OVERNIGHT. SO STRONG INVERSION TO BE IN PLACE STARTING
TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE FOG AND
WHEN DOES IT BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT GIVEN
THAT THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS JUST NOW DISSIPATING FROM THE
MAGIC VALLEY WESTWARD TO MOUNTAIN HOME...THIS MAY BE THE PRECURSOR
TO WHATS TO COME. AS THE SUN SETS...LOOK FOR THE FOG TO SPREAD
BACK INTO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY ALONG WITH THE BURNS/BAKER AND
MCCALL REGIONS. SOMEWHAT MORE CONFIDENT ON EXTENT OF THE FOG THAN
THAN THE TIMING OF WHEN IT SHOULD DISSIPATE...NO SNOW/MOISTURE ON
THE GROUND WOULD MAY HELP LIMIT THE HOURS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
ANY LOW ELEVATION SURFACE MOISTURE WOULD HAVE TO ADVECT FROM
EASTERN IDAHO IN THE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OR DRAINAGE OUT
OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS...THAT WOULD KEEP
FOG/STRATUS IN THE PICTURE. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES
DIFFICULT AS IF FOG/CLOUDS DONT BREAK TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE
TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY.

EVEN WARMER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY ONLY
INCREASING THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION...SO EXPECTING SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING WITH EXTENSIVE FOG SOON AFTER
SUNSET...LASTING INTO THE AT LEAST MID/LATE MORNING.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CAN EXPECT VALLEY INVERSIONS UNDER
THE RIDGE ALONG WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD THE VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG WILL GET UNDER THE
INVERSION SO FORECAST VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAS NOT BEEN EASY. STILL
TRENDING THAT VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S AND MAYBE THE
LOW 4OS...BUT IF THERE IS NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION AS WE ARE THINKING...VALLEY HIGHS COULD BE MUCH WARMER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE INVERSION WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW
50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. INCREASED POPS SATURDAY AM WITH BEST CHANCES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AFTER THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING
AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. VALLEY INVERSIONS SETTING UP UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG
AND STRATUS WILL BE. LOW STRATUS AND FOG LINGERS IN THE SNAKE
RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN KMUO AND KJER THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THAT
IT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT ALL TAF
SITES TO HAVE FOG BY MONDAY MORNING...BUT TIMING OF ONSET MAY BE
OFF. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...CR
LONG TERM....JA/JC
AVIATION.....JA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 071623
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
923 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE MAGIC VALLEY ALONG WITH THE BAKER VALLEY SHOULD
BEGIN TO BURN OFF LATER THIS MORNING. BIGGEST PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL BE TO WHAT EXTENT THE FOG DISSIPATES EACH
DAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH MIDWEEK WHICH WOULD KEEP A STRONG INVERSION LOCKED IN
PLACE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OUTSIDE OF THE LOWER VALLEYS...SHOULD SEE
FULL SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ALREADY UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE FOG THROUGH THE LOWER
VALLEYS THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE BY 19Z...BUT WILL
REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS
ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CURRENTLY BUILDING ALONG THE COAST.
IT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MONDAY.  MEANWHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM NORTHERN IDAHO TO SERN
IDAHO...OR JUST WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AS THE UPPER
HIGH SHIFTS EAST INVERSION CONDITIONS WILL INTENSIFY IN THE IDAHO
VALLEYS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS.  TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WILL CHANGE LITTLE OR COOL SLIGHTLY
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  NO PCPN.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THIS WILL SET UP AN INVERSION WHICH WILL LEAD TO VALLEY FOG/STRATUS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5500 FEET. THE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK BY FRIDAY AND THUS TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...CR
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS





000
FXUS65 KBOI 071623
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
923 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE MAGIC VALLEY ALONG WITH THE BAKER VALLEY SHOULD
BEGIN TO BURN OFF LATER THIS MORNING. BIGGEST PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL BE TO WHAT EXTENT THE FOG DISSIPATES EACH
DAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH MIDWEEK WHICH WOULD KEEP A STRONG INVERSION LOCKED IN
PLACE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OUTSIDE OF THE LOWER VALLEYS...SHOULD SEE
FULL SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ALREADY UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE FOG THROUGH THE LOWER
VALLEYS THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE BY 19Z...BUT WILL
REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS
ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CURRENTLY BUILDING ALONG THE COAST.
IT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MONDAY.  MEANWHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM NORTHERN IDAHO TO SERN
IDAHO...OR JUST WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AS THE UPPER
HIGH SHIFTS EAST INVERSION CONDITIONS WILL INTENSIFY IN THE IDAHO
VALLEYS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS.  TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WILL CHANGE LITTLE OR COOL SLIGHTLY
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  NO PCPN.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THIS WILL SET UP AN INVERSION WHICH WILL LEAD TO VALLEY FOG/STRATUS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5500 FEET. THE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK BY FRIDAY AND THUS TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...CR
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 071623
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
923 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE MAGIC VALLEY ALONG WITH THE BAKER VALLEY SHOULD
BEGIN TO BURN OFF LATER THIS MORNING. BIGGEST PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL BE TO WHAT EXTENT THE FOG DISSIPATES EACH
DAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH MIDWEEK WHICH WOULD KEEP A STRONG INVERSION LOCKED IN
PLACE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OUTSIDE OF THE LOWER VALLEYS...SHOULD SEE
FULL SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ALREADY UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE FOG THROUGH THE LOWER
VALLEYS THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE BY 19Z...BUT WILL
REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS
ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CURRENTLY BUILDING ALONG THE COAST.
IT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MONDAY.  MEANWHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM NORTHERN IDAHO TO SERN
IDAHO...OR JUST WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AS THE UPPER
HIGH SHIFTS EAST INVERSION CONDITIONS WILL INTENSIFY IN THE IDAHO
VALLEYS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS.  TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WILL CHANGE LITTLE OR COOL SLIGHTLY
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  NO PCPN.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THIS WILL SET UP AN INVERSION WHICH WILL LEAD TO VALLEY FOG/STRATUS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5500 FEET. THE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK BY FRIDAY AND THUS TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...CR
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS





000
FXUS65 KBOI 071008
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
307 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CURRENTLY BUILDING ALONG THE COAST.
IT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MONDAY.  MEANWHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM NORTHERN IDAHO TO SERN
IDAHO...OR JUST WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AS THE UPPER
HIGH SHIFTS EAST INVERSION CONDITIONS WILL INTENSIFY IN THE IDAHO
VALLEYS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS.  TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WILL CHANGE LITTLE OR COOL SLIGHTLY
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  NO PCPN.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THIS WILL SET UP AN INVERSION WHICH WILL LEAD TO VALLEY FOG/STRATUS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5500 FEET. THE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK BY FRIDAY AND THUS TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR WITH MID-LEVEL SCATTERED CLOUDS OR BROKEN
CEILINGS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WEST AND
SOUTH OF KMUO AND IN THE KMYL AREA THIS MORNING...DISSIPATING BY
18Z. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...
NORTHWEST 15-25 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...SURFACE-BASED INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN REMAIN STRONG THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.  MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...TO BELOW 1500 FEET AGL TUESDAY.  EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT LIGHTER WINDS IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS
AIR STAGNATION...LC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 071008
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
307 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CURRENTLY BUILDING ALONG THE COAST.
IT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MONDAY.  MEANWHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM NORTHERN IDAHO TO SERN
IDAHO...OR JUST WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AS THE UPPER
HIGH SHIFTS EAST INVERSION CONDITIONS WILL INTENSIFY IN THE IDAHO
VALLEYS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS.  TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WILL CHANGE LITTLE OR COOL SLIGHTLY
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  NO PCPN.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THIS WILL SET UP AN INVERSION WHICH WILL LEAD TO VALLEY FOG/STRATUS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5500 FEET. THE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK BY FRIDAY AND THUS TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR WITH MID-LEVEL SCATTERED CLOUDS OR BROKEN
CEILINGS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WEST AND
SOUTH OF KMUO AND IN THE KMYL AREA THIS MORNING...DISSIPATING BY
18Z. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...
NORTHWEST 15-25 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...SURFACE-BASED INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN REMAIN STRONG THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.  MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...TO BELOW 1500 FEET AGL TUESDAY.  EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT LIGHTER WINDS IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS
AIR STAGNATION...LC





000
FXUS65 KBOI 071007
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
307 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CURRENTLY BUILDING ALONG THE COAST.
IT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MONDAY.  MEANWHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM NORTHERN IDAHO TO SERN
IDAHO...OR JUST WEST OF THE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AS THE UPPER
HIGH SHIFTS EAST INVERSION CONDITIONS WILL INTENSIFY IN THE IDAHO
VALLEYS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS.  TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WILL CHANGE LITTLE OR COOL SLIGHTLY
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  NO PCPN.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THIS WILL SET UP AN INVERSION WHICH WILL LEAD TO VALLEY FOG/STRATUS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5500 FEET. THE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK BY FRIDAY AND THUS TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR WITH MID-LEVEL SCATTERED CLOUDS OR BROKEN
CEILINGS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WEST AND
SOUTH OF KMUO AND IN THE KMYL AREA THIS MORNING...DISSIPATING BY
18Z. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...
NORTHWEST 15-25 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...SURFACE-BASED INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN REMAIN STRONG THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.  MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...TO BELOW 1500 FEET AGL TUESDAY.  EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT LIGHTER WINDS IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS
AIR STAGNATION...LC





000
FXUS65 KBOI 070421
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
921 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...EVENING SATELLITE PICS SHOWING FETCH OF MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS STRETCHING OFF THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO THE INTERIOR NW THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE W-NW. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND FAVORED MTN VALLEYS...HOWEVER WITH
HIGH CLOUD COVER DON/T EXPECT A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT. AND IN
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY S-SW WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT. NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR WITH MID LEVEL SCATTERED CLOUDS OR BROKEN
CEILINGS. CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...BUT
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WEST AND SOUTH OF
KMUO AND IN THE KMYL AREA AFTER 06Z...DISSIPATING BY 18Z. SURFACE
WINDS...VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 15-25 KTS
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN IN DAYS TO
COME...SUCCESSIVELY LOWERING AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS TO BELOW
1500 FEET AGL BY TUESDAY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM ADA
COUNTY EASTWARD...WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT QUICKLY SPREADS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A STRONG STORM OUT IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA RIDES OVER A
BUILDING RIDGE AND INTO CANADA. THIS UPPER RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS
OFF THE COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHILE SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. THIS BRINGS INVERTED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE SHORT TERM THE CONCERN IS WHAT THE
AERIAL EXTENT OF ANY FOG WILL BE THROUGH MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE
REDUCED THE EXTENT OF FOG ACROSS THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS FROM MOUNTAIN HOME THROUGH THE MAGIC
VALLEY. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER/UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT IT IN THAT REGION.

WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THEREFORE
LEFT EXTENSIVE MORNING VALLEY FROM THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
THROUGH THE MAGIC VALLEY ALONG WITH THE BURNS/BAKER AND MCCALL
AREA AS WELL. MONDAYS TEMPERATURE WILL FINALLY BE MORE INVERTED
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND WARMER TEMPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.


LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. UNDER THIS RIDGE WE WILL SEE VALLEY INVERSION
SET UP WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG UNDER
THE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FORECAST STILL GOING TO BE TRICKY IN
THAT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH FOG AND
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE INVERSION. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND KEPT VALLEYS IN THE 30S WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. MODELS
SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO
THURSDAY...FLATTENING THE RIDGE. MODELS HINTING THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IF WE GET ANY
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS SYSTEM IT WILL BE OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
ZONES. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO IF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE VALLEY INVERSIONS SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LEAVE THE TREND OF WARMING
TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVING WAY TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT WE MAY SEE
SOME SHOWERS UP IN THE NORTHERN ZONES...MOSTLY
ADAMS...WASHINGTON...AND VALLEY COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS SIT RIGHT
AROUND 5000 FEET SO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE THESE SHOWERS IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
AIR STAGNATION...DG
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JA/JC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 070421
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
921 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...EVENING SATELLITE PICS SHOWING FETCH OF MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS STRETCHING OFF THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO THE INTERIOR NW THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE W-NW. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND FAVORED MTN VALLEYS...HOWEVER WITH
HIGH CLOUD COVER DON/T EXPECT A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT. AND IN
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY S-SW WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT. NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR WITH MID LEVEL SCATTERED CLOUDS OR BROKEN
CEILINGS. CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...BUT
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WEST AND SOUTH OF
KMUO AND IN THE KMYL AREA AFTER 06Z...DISSIPATING BY 18Z. SURFACE
WINDS...VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 15-25 KTS
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN IN DAYS TO
COME...SUCCESSIVELY LOWERING AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS TO BELOW
1500 FEET AGL BY TUESDAY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM ADA
COUNTY EASTWARD...WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT QUICKLY SPREADS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A STRONG STORM OUT IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA RIDES OVER A
BUILDING RIDGE AND INTO CANADA. THIS UPPER RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS
OFF THE COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHILE SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. THIS BRINGS INVERTED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE SHORT TERM THE CONCERN IS WHAT THE
AERIAL EXTENT OF ANY FOG WILL BE THROUGH MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE
REDUCED THE EXTENT OF FOG ACROSS THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS FROM MOUNTAIN HOME THROUGH THE MAGIC
VALLEY. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER/UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT IT IN THAT REGION.

WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THEREFORE
LEFT EXTENSIVE MORNING VALLEY FROM THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
THROUGH THE MAGIC VALLEY ALONG WITH THE BURNS/BAKER AND MCCALL
AREA AS WELL. MONDAYS TEMPERATURE WILL FINALLY BE MORE INVERTED
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND WARMER TEMPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.


LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. UNDER THIS RIDGE WE WILL SEE VALLEY INVERSION
SET UP WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG UNDER
THE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FORECAST STILL GOING TO BE TRICKY IN
THAT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH FOG AND
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE INVERSION. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND KEPT VALLEYS IN THE 30S WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. MODELS
SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO
THURSDAY...FLATTENING THE RIDGE. MODELS HINTING THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IF WE GET ANY
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS SYSTEM IT WILL BE OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
ZONES. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO IF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE VALLEY INVERSIONS SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LEAVE THE TREND OF WARMING
TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVING WAY TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT WE MAY SEE
SOME SHOWERS UP IN THE NORTHERN ZONES...MOSTLY
ADAMS...WASHINGTON...AND VALLEY COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS SIT RIGHT
AROUND 5000 FEET SO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE THESE SHOWERS IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
AIR STAGNATION...DG
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JA/JC





000
FXUS65 KBOI 070421
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
921 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...EVENING SATELLITE PICS SHOWING FETCH OF MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS STRETCHING OFF THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO THE INTERIOR NW THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE W-NW. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND FAVORED MTN VALLEYS...HOWEVER WITH
HIGH CLOUD COVER DON/T EXPECT A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT. AND IN
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY S-SW WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT. NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR WITH MID LEVEL SCATTERED CLOUDS OR BROKEN
CEILINGS. CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...BUT
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WEST AND SOUTH OF
KMUO AND IN THE KMYL AREA AFTER 06Z...DISSIPATING BY 18Z. SURFACE
WINDS...VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 15-25 KTS
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN IN DAYS TO
COME...SUCCESSIVELY LOWERING AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS TO BELOW
1500 FEET AGL BY TUESDAY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM ADA
COUNTY EASTWARD...WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT QUICKLY SPREADS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A STRONG STORM OUT IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA RIDES OVER A
BUILDING RIDGE AND INTO CANADA. THIS UPPER RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS
OFF THE COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHILE SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. THIS BRINGS INVERTED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE SHORT TERM THE CONCERN IS WHAT THE
AERIAL EXTENT OF ANY FOG WILL BE THROUGH MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE
REDUCED THE EXTENT OF FOG ACROSS THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS FROM MOUNTAIN HOME THROUGH THE MAGIC
VALLEY. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER/UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT IT IN THAT REGION.

WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THEREFORE
LEFT EXTENSIVE MORNING VALLEY FROM THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
THROUGH THE MAGIC VALLEY ALONG WITH THE BURNS/BAKER AND MCCALL
AREA AS WELL. MONDAYS TEMPERATURE WILL FINALLY BE MORE INVERTED
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND WARMER TEMPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.


LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. UNDER THIS RIDGE WE WILL SEE VALLEY INVERSION
SET UP WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG UNDER
THE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FORECAST STILL GOING TO BE TRICKY IN
THAT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH FOG AND
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE INVERSION. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND KEPT VALLEYS IN THE 30S WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. MODELS
SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO
THURSDAY...FLATTENING THE RIDGE. MODELS HINTING THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IF WE GET ANY
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS SYSTEM IT WILL BE OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
ZONES. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO IF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE VALLEY INVERSIONS SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LEAVE THE TREND OF WARMING
TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVING WAY TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT WE MAY SEE
SOME SHOWERS UP IN THE NORTHERN ZONES...MOSTLY
ADAMS...WASHINGTON...AND VALLEY COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS SIT RIGHT
AROUND 5000 FEET SO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE THESE SHOWERS IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
AIR STAGNATION...DG
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JA/JC





000
FXUS65 KBOI 062143
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
243 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT QUICKLY SPREADS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A STRONG STORM OUT IN THE CENTRAL GULK OF ALASKA RIDES OVER A
BUILDING RIDGE AND INTO CANADA. THIS UPPER RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS
OFF THE COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHILE SLOWLY
INENSIFYING BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. THIS BRINGS INVERTED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE SHORT TERM THE CONCERN IS WHAT THE
AERIAL EXTENT OF ANY FOG WILL BE THROUGH MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE
REDUCED THE EXTENT OF FOG ACROSS THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SUFFIENCENT CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS FROM MOUNTAIN HOME THROUGH THE MAGIC
VALLEY. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER/UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT IT IN THAT REGION.

WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THEREFORE
LEFT EXTENSIVE MORNING VALLEY FROM THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
THROUGH THE MAGIC VALLEY ALONG WITH THE BURNS/BAKER AND MCCALL
AREA AS WELL. MONDAYS TEMPERATURE WILL FINALLY BE MORE INVERTED
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND WARMER TEMPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. UNDER THIS RIDGE WE WILL SEE VALLEY INVERSION
SET UP WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG UNDER
THE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FORECAST STILL GOING TO BE TRICKY IN
THAT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH FOG AND
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE INVERSION. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND KEPT VALLEYS IN THE 30S WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. MODELS
SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO
THURSDAY...FLATTENING THE RIDGE. MODELS HINTING THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IF WE GET ANY
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS SYSTEM IT WILL BE OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
ZONES. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO IF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE VALLEY INVERSIONS SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LEAVE THE TREND OF WARMING
TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVING WAY TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT WE MAY SEE
SOME SHOWERS UP IN THE NORTHERN ZONES...MOSTLY
ADAMS...WASHINGTON...AND VALLEY COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS SIT RIGHT
AROUND 5000 FEET SO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE THESE SHOWERS IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CEILINGS.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER THINKING THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO FOG
FORMATION BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT PATCHY IFR/LIFR STRATUS IF THERE ARE
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT WESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...CR
LONG TERM....JA/JC
AVIATION.....JA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 061630
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
930 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO THIS MORNING. RADAR
NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP...BUT WEB CAMS UP ACROSS
THE PAYETTE FOREST SHOWING HINTS OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS.
SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION TODAY. THIS FRONT
EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH SOUTHERN IDAHO BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A
WARM FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. 12Z BOISE SOUNDING SHOWING
STRONG WINDS RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE THEN WEAKEN...12Z NAM BL WINDS
SHOWING A TRANSITION TO LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE
UPDATED WINDS THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY FOR STRONGER WINDS THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THESE WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS UP TODAY AND
LIMIT THE AREAL EXTENT OF FOG...THIS WILL BE CHANGING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE AERIAL EXTENT. OTHERWISE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED MVFR FOG NEAR KONO THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS.  DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z.  SURFACE WINDS
EAST TO SOUTH 5-15 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWEST TO WEST 20-30 KNOTS
UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION TO THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER BOISE MOUNTAINS TODAY.  ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING ENOUGH WIND TO MIX OUT ANY FOG AND ALLOW
TEMPS TO CLIMB TO THE 30S AND 40S.  LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG
TO FORM AND ALSO HOLD DOWN DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS AS AN
INVERSION BEGINS TO FORM.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING A STRONG INVERSION WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH FOG/STRATUS DOES DEVELOP WHICH AT THIS POINT
IS HARD TO DETERMINE. CONTINUED THE TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE VALLEYS IN THE 30S WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE INVERSION IN
THE 40S AND LOW 50S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WEDNESDAY AS ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST MOVES
INLAND.  THIS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THE INVERSION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ON SATURDAY BUT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT APPROACHES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY BREAK THE
INVERSION BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO ALL ELEVATIONS...BUT
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...CR
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS





000
FXUS65 KBOI 061000
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
300 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION TO THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER BOISE MOUNTAINS TODAY.  ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING ENOUGH WIND TO MIX OUT ANY FOG AND ALLOW
TEMPS TO CLIMB TO THE 30S AND 40S.  LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG
TO FORM AND ALSO HOLD DOWN DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS AS AN
INVERSION BEGINS TO FORM.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING A STRONG INVERSION WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH FOG/STRATUS DOES DEVELOP WHICH AT THIS POINT
IS HARD TO DETERMINE. CONTINUED THE TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE VALLEYS IN THE 30S WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE INVERSION IN
THE 40S AND LOW 50S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WEDNESDAY AS ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST MOVES
INLAND.  THIS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THE INVERSION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ON SATURDAY BUT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT APPROACHES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY BREAK THE
INVERSION BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO ALL ELEVATIONS...BUT
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCH IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND VALLEY FOG NEAR KONO THIS
MORNING. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 18Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE
SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 10-20 KTS
BECOMING WEST 5-15 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT...WEST TO
NORTHWEST 30-40 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...RELATIVELY GOOD MIXING TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.  A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN INVERSION
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THAT WILL LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.  AIR QUALITY
MAY WORSEN AND FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS
AIR STAGNATION...LC





000
FXUS65 KBOI 060403
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
903 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH
OVERNIGHT PRECIP BUT STILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. REST OF SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. IN THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL POOL IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY AND PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS IN THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY. HAVE SEEN AN UPTICK IN THE SE WINDS IN THE TREASURE
VALLEY WHICH HAS PUSHED FOG TO THE WEST OF NAMPA. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY EXTEND FURTHER WEST IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY...ERODING THE DENSE FOG. NOT CONFIDENT HOW FAST
THIS WILL OCCUR AND UNTIL THEN VISIBILITIES BETWEEN CALDWELL AND
ONTARIO WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. HAVE
MADE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
AND INCREASE FOG COVERAGE IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND VALLEY FOG WILL PERSIST
WEST OF KBOI AND IN THE KJER AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS...MIXED WITH RAIN BELOW 4K FT MSL...WILL
SPREAD ACROSS BAKER COUNTY OREGON THIS EVENING AND INTO THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z...ENDING THE KBKE AREA BY 12Z AND THE KMYL
AREA BY 18Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SNAKE
RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING BECOMING WEST 5-15 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT...WEST TO NORTHWEST 30-40 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE PAC NW THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS FEATURE
WILL SWING THROUGH NRN IDAHO TONIGHT...PROVIDING A GLANCING BLOW
TO OUR FORECAST AREA. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER MAINLY
THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA STARTING THIS EVENING IN BAKER COUNTY AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...WINDS WILL INCREASE
MODERATELY OVER MOST OF THE AREA...LIMITING FOG FORMATION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE FOG THAT IS ONGOING IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY WILL REMAIN...AT LEAST WITH PATCHY COVERAGE...
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST OVER A LARGER
AREA BEGINNING AROUND 5 AM FOR MAINLY THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS SAT WILL
DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW MUCH FOG FORMS AND OVER HOW LARGE AN AREA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ON THE SMALL SIDE FOR SATURDAY...MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY...BUT THIS AREA WILL EXPAND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN INVERSION TAKES HOLD. AS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WARM LATE SUNDAY...LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL STRUGGLE. WE
HAVE GONE SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER
AND MUCH OF THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEYS. MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL
EXPERIENCE THE SAME THING. WE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO
EXTEND OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN MAGIC AND TREASURE VALLEYS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...WE WILL BE
DRY SAT THROUGH SUN.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP UNDER THIS RIDGE
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE OVERALL
EXTENT OF THE STRATUS AND FOG UNDER THE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH FOG AND STRATUS WILL
FORM UNDER THE INVERSION...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS IN THE 30S WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
INVERSION IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ECMWF WANTS TO BRING MOISTURE THROUGH STARTING
THURSDAY AM WHILE THE GFS DOESN`T BRING ANYTHING INTO THE CWA UNTIL
FRIDAY PM. WITH THIS BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE TIMING
OF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA. SNOW LEVELS DO LOOK TO REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH THAT IF AND WHEN THE PRECIPITATION HITS IT WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN EXCEPT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE
INVERSION APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN BY THURSDAY MORNING SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AGAIN
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT TO
BRING ABOUT INVERSION CONDITIONS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AIR QUALITY MAY BE IMPACTED...AND FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN VALLEYS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ012.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION...JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM...JA/JC
AIR STAGNATION...SP





000
FXUS65 KBOI 060403
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
903 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH
OVERNIGHT PRECIP BUT STILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. REST OF SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. IN THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL POOL IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY AND PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS IN THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY. HAVE SEEN AN UPTICK IN THE SE WINDS IN THE TREASURE
VALLEY WHICH HAS PUSHED FOG TO THE WEST OF NAMPA. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY EXTEND FURTHER WEST IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY...ERODING THE DENSE FOG. NOT CONFIDENT HOW FAST
THIS WILL OCCUR AND UNTIL THEN VISIBILITIES BETWEEN CALDWELL AND
ONTARIO WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. HAVE
MADE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
AND INCREASE FOG COVERAGE IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND VALLEY FOG WILL PERSIST
WEST OF KBOI AND IN THE KJER AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS...MIXED WITH RAIN BELOW 4K FT MSL...WILL
SPREAD ACROSS BAKER COUNTY OREGON THIS EVENING AND INTO THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z...ENDING THE KBKE AREA BY 12Z AND THE KMYL
AREA BY 18Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SNAKE
RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING BECOMING WEST 5-15 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT...WEST TO NORTHWEST 30-40 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE PAC NW THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS FEATURE
WILL SWING THROUGH NRN IDAHO TONIGHT...PROVIDING A GLANCING BLOW
TO OUR FORECAST AREA. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER MAINLY
THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA STARTING THIS EVENING IN BAKER COUNTY AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...WINDS WILL INCREASE
MODERATELY OVER MOST OF THE AREA...LIMITING FOG FORMATION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE FOG THAT IS ONGOING IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY WILL REMAIN...AT LEAST WITH PATCHY COVERAGE...
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST OVER A LARGER
AREA BEGINNING AROUND 5 AM FOR MAINLY THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS SAT WILL
DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW MUCH FOG FORMS AND OVER HOW LARGE AN AREA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ON THE SMALL SIDE FOR SATURDAY...MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY...BUT THIS AREA WILL EXPAND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN INVERSION TAKES HOLD. AS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WARM LATE SUNDAY...LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL STRUGGLE. WE
HAVE GONE SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER
AND MUCH OF THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEYS. MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL
EXPERIENCE THE SAME THING. WE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO
EXTEND OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN MAGIC AND TREASURE VALLEYS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...WE WILL BE
DRY SAT THROUGH SUN.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP UNDER THIS RIDGE
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE OVERALL
EXTENT OF THE STRATUS AND FOG UNDER THE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH FOG AND STRATUS WILL
FORM UNDER THE INVERSION...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS IN THE 30S WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
INVERSION IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ECMWF WANTS TO BRING MOISTURE THROUGH STARTING
THURSDAY AM WHILE THE GFS DOESN`T BRING ANYTHING INTO THE CWA UNTIL
FRIDAY PM. WITH THIS BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE TIMING
OF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA. SNOW LEVELS DO LOOK TO REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH THAT IF AND WHEN THE PRECIPITATION HITS IT WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN EXCEPT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE
INVERSION APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN BY THURSDAY MORNING SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AGAIN
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT TO
BRING ABOUT INVERSION CONDITIONS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AIR QUALITY MAY BE IMPACTED...AND FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN VALLEYS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ012.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION...JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM...JA/JC
AIR STAGNATION...SP





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