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000
FXUS65 KBOI 050341
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
941 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH INITIATED
OVER FAR SE OREGON AND THE IN/NV BORDER IS DECREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH SUNSET. WATCHING A SECOND AREA OF LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER NORTHERN NV WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
IN NORTHERN CA. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. EVENING WEATHER
BALLOON FROM KBOI SHOWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN FORCING FROM THE UPPER
LOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF DEEPER
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS REMAINS LOW. NEWEST MODEL GUIDANCE HASN/T
CHANGED MUCH WITH OVERNIGHT FORECAST SO WILL NOT UPDATE AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF A KBOI-KTWF
LINE.  AFTER 05Z SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH
GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS ALOFT
WESTERLY 10-15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT
WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO OVERNIGHT AND WED. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH
IS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL...AND WHICH WOULD MAKE TWO NIGHTS IN A ROW
FOR MANY FOLKS IN THE BOISE AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST TOMORROW...RESULTING IN DECREASING POPS IN SE OREGON
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS SW IDAHO IN THE EVENING...
POPS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE WED NIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. RELATIVELY DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL COME IN THU...BRINGING A DRY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR DAY. TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
BOTH WED AND THU...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING CONSIDERABLY FROM
TONIGHT TO WED NIGHT. TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AROUND...LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WED NIGHT...WITH DRY AIR AND CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW COULD GUST 35 TO
45 MPH...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS. LIGHTNING IS ALWAYS A HAZARD WITH THUNDERSTORMS...
REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF RAIN...HAIL...OR WIND.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW OFF OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER...AND SPREAD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND BEEN PARTIAL ABSORBED
INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER UPPER LOW OFF OF
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. NONETHELESS...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
HAVE SHIFTED EAST BY THIS TIME SO MOST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM. BY SUNDAY...UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE BC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND THE AREA WILL
TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN FROM OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LEADING TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION. LEFT POPS TO MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CLIMO FOR NOW. TEMPS LINGER RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
     IDZ400-401-420-424.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY ORZ637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/JC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 050341
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
941 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH INITIATED
OVER FAR SE OREGON AND THE IN/NV BORDER IS DECREASING IN COVERAGE
WITH SUNSET. WATCHING A SECOND AREA OF LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER NORTHERN NV WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
IN NORTHERN CA. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. EVENING WEATHER
BALLOON FROM KBOI SHOWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN FORCING FROM THE UPPER
LOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF DEEPER
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS REMAINS LOW. NEWEST MODEL GUIDANCE HASN/T
CHANGED MUCH WITH OVERNIGHT FORECAST SO WILL NOT UPDATE AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF A KBOI-KTWF
LINE.  AFTER 05Z SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH
GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS ALOFT
WESTERLY 10-15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT
WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO OVERNIGHT AND WED. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH
IS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL...AND WHICH WOULD MAKE TWO NIGHTS IN A ROW
FOR MANY FOLKS IN THE BOISE AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST TOMORROW...RESULTING IN DECREASING POPS IN SE OREGON
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS SW IDAHO IN THE EVENING...
POPS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE WED NIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. RELATIVELY DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL COME IN THU...BRINGING A DRY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR DAY. TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
BOTH WED AND THU...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING CONSIDERABLY FROM
TONIGHT TO WED NIGHT. TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AROUND...LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WED NIGHT...WITH DRY AIR AND CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW COULD GUST 35 TO
45 MPH...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS. LIGHTNING IS ALWAYS A HAZARD WITH THUNDERSTORMS...
REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF RAIN...HAIL...OR WIND.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW OFF OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER...AND SPREAD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND BEEN PARTIAL ABSORBED
INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER UPPER LOW OFF OF
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. NONETHELESS...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
HAVE SHIFTED EAST BY THIS TIME SO MOST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM. BY SUNDAY...UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE BC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND THE AREA WILL
TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN FROM OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LEADING TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION. LEFT POPS TO MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CLIMO FOR NOW. TEMPS LINGER RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
     IDZ400-401-420-424.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY ORZ637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/JC





000
FXUS65 KBOI 042029
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
229 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT
WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO OVERNIGHT AND WED. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH
IS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL...AND WHICH WOULD MAKE TWO NIGHTS IN A ROW
FOR MANY FOLKS IN THE BOISE AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST TOMORROW...RESULTING IN DECREASING POPS IN SE OREGON
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS SW IDAHO IN THE EVENING...
POPS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE WED NIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. RELATIVELY DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL COME IN THU...BRINGING A DRY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR DAY. TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
BOTH WED AND THU...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING CONSIDERABLY FROM
TONIGHT TO WED NIGHT. TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AROUND...LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WED NIGHT...WITH DRY AIR AND CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW COULD GUST 35 TO
45 MPH...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS. LIGHTNING IS ALWAYS A HAZARD WITH THUNDERSTORMS...
REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF RAIN...HAIL...OR WIND.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW OFF OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER...AND SPREAD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND BEEN PARTIAL ABSORBED
INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER UPPER LOW OFF OF
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. NONETHELESS...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
HAVE SHIFTED EAST BY THIS TIME SO MOST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM. BY SUNDAY...UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE BC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND THE AREA WILL
TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN FROM OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LEADING TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION. LEFT POPS TO MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CLIMO FOR NOW. TEMPS LINGER RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 04/23Z...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF
THE TREASURE VALLEY...THEN SPREADING THROUGH SOUTH TO NORTH TO THE
ENTIRE AREA BY 05/12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06/03Z. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS...AND
VARIABLE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 45 KTS NEAR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WSW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
     IDZ400-401-420-424.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY ORZ637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....EP/JC
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 041608
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1008 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
NOW THAT NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.
LATEST MODELS INDICATE CAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS CAPE DECREASES SLIGHTLY BUT
BASICALLY EXTENDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS UNUSUAL. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGHER POPS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THEN MOVE NE FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THEN REINTENSIFY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS OVERALL SCENARIO HAS PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE SE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ITS TREK THROUGH MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL DO AN UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...ALONG
WITH SMALL CHANGES IN OTHER AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 04/18Z...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF THE
TREASURE VALLEY...THEN SPREADING THROUGH SOUTH TO NORTH TO THE
ENTIRE AREA BY 05/12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06/03Z. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS...AND
VARIABLE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 45 KTS NEAR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WSW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LINGERING CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST IDAHO AT 4 AM
MDT...EXPECT THIS CLUSTER TO MOVE THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DYING OUT BY 6
AM MDT. ASIDE FROM THIS CLUSTER...THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS MOVED OUT
OF THE REGION BEHIND THE PASSING OF MONDAY/S SHORTWAVE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON
LASTING INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER...THE
MAGIC VALLEY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BOISE MOUNTAINS. THE BRUNT OF
THE TROUGH WILL COME WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECTING HIGH QPF WITH THIS TROUGH...UP TO 0.1
INCHES IN SOME PLACES...MOSTLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AND DROP
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS AND
AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE
WEDNESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED OVER IDAHO DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER
TROUGH OVER ID THURSDAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS 4-7F BELOW NORMAL THEN
SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COASTAL CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH ACROSS THE ORE-NV BORDER
WHICH IS FASTER THAN GFS/EC. SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN. CA
LOW HAS 80KT UPPER JET SUPPORT WHICH LIFTS NE ACROSS S IDAHO
SATURDAY MORNING SO NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE STILL ON TRACK...AS ARE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH  LIFTS NE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE LONG WAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO START TO
RETROGRADE FOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POPS
FAVORING NE OREGON. AN OFFSHORE TROUGH AND HOT CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
DOMINATE THE LAST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
     IDZ400-401-420-424.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY ORZ637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM





000
FXUS65 KBOI 041608
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1008 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
NOW THAT NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.
LATEST MODELS INDICATE CAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS CAPE DECREASES SLIGHTLY BUT
BASICALLY EXTENDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS UNUSUAL. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGHER POPS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THEN MOVE NE FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...THEN REINTENSIFY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS OVERALL SCENARIO HAS PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE SE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ITS TREK THROUGH MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL DO AN UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...ALONG
WITH SMALL CHANGES IN OTHER AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 04/18Z...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF THE
TREASURE VALLEY...THEN SPREADING THROUGH SOUTH TO NORTH TO THE
ENTIRE AREA BY 05/12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06/03Z. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS...AND
VARIABLE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 45 KTS NEAR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WSW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LINGERING CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST IDAHO AT 4 AM
MDT...EXPECT THIS CLUSTER TO MOVE THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DYING OUT BY 6
AM MDT. ASIDE FROM THIS CLUSTER...THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS MOVED OUT
OF THE REGION BEHIND THE PASSING OF MONDAY/S SHORTWAVE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON
LASTING INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER...THE
MAGIC VALLEY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BOISE MOUNTAINS. THE BRUNT OF
THE TROUGH WILL COME WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECTING HIGH QPF WITH THIS TROUGH...UP TO 0.1
INCHES IN SOME PLACES...MOSTLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AND DROP
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS AND
AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE
WEDNESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED OVER IDAHO DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER
TROUGH OVER ID THURSDAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS 4-7F BELOW NORMAL THEN
SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COASTAL CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH ACROSS THE ORE-NV BORDER
WHICH IS FASTER THAN GFS/EC. SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN. CA
LOW HAS 80KT UPPER JET SUPPORT WHICH LIFTS NE ACROSS S IDAHO
SATURDAY MORNING SO NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE STILL ON TRACK...AS ARE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH  LIFTS NE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE LONG WAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO START TO
RETROGRADE FOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POPS
FAVORING NE OREGON. AN OFFSHORE TROUGH AND HOT CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
DOMINATE THE LAST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
     IDZ400-401-420-424.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY ORZ637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM




000
FXUS65 KBOI 041022 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
422 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LINGERING CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST IDAHO AT 4 AM
MDT...EXPECT THIS CLUSTER TO MOVE THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DYING OUT BY 6
AM MDT. ASIDE FROM THIS CLUSTER...THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS MOVED OUT
OF THE REGION BEHIND THE PASSING OF MONDAY/S SHORTWAVE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON
LASTING INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER...THE
MAGIC VALLEY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BOISE MOUNTAINS. THE BRUNT OF
THE TROUGH WILL COME WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECTING HIGH QPF WITH THIS TROUGH...UP TO 0.1
INCHES IN SOME PLACES...MOSTLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AND DROP
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS AND
AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE
WEDNESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED OVER IDAHO DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER
TROUGH OVER ID THURSDAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS 4-7F BELOW NORMAL THEN
SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COASTAL CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH ACROSS THE ORE-NV BORDER
WHICH IS FASTER THAN GFS/EC. SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN. CA
LOW HAS 80KT UPPER JET SUPPORT WHICH LIFTS NE ACROSS S IDAHO
SATURDAY MORNING SO NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE STILL ON TRACK...AS ARE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH  LIFTS NE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE LONG WAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO START TO
RETROGRADE FOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POPS
FAVORING NE OREGON. AN OFFSHORE TROUGH AND HOT CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
DOMINATE THE LAST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...ISOLATED MFVR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW
IDAHO UNTIL 12Z AND REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z MAINLY NEAR THE ID-NV
BORDER. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WEST 5-15KTS...EXCEPT
GUSTS AROUND 40KT DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT WSW 10-20 KT AT
10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....VM




000
FXUS65 KBOI 041022 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
422 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LINGERING CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST IDAHO AT 4 AM
MDT...EXPECT THIS CLUSTER TO MOVE THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DYING OUT BY 6
AM MDT. ASIDE FROM THIS CLUSTER...THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS MOVED OUT
OF THE REGION BEHIND THE PASSING OF MONDAY/S SHORTWAVE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON
LASTING INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER...THE
MAGIC VALLEY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BOISE MOUNTAINS. THE BRUNT OF
THE TROUGH WILL COME WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECTING HIGH QPF WITH THIS TROUGH...UP TO 0.1
INCHES IN SOME PLACES...MOSTLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AND DROP
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS AND
AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE
WEDNESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED OVER IDAHO DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER
TROUGH OVER ID THURSDAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS 4-7F BELOW NORMAL THEN
SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COASTAL CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH ACROSS THE ORE-NV BORDER
WHICH IS FASTER THAN GFS/EC. SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN. CA
LOW HAS 80KT UPPER JET SUPPORT WHICH LIFTS NE ACROSS S IDAHO
SATURDAY MORNING SO NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE STILL ON TRACK...AS ARE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH  LIFTS NE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE LONG WAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO START TO
RETROGRADE FOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POPS
FAVORING NE OREGON. AN OFFSHORE TROUGH AND HOT CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
DOMINATE THE LAST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...ISOLATED MFVR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW
IDAHO UNTIL 12Z AND REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z MAINLY NEAR THE ID-NV
BORDER. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WEST 5-15KTS...EXCEPT
GUSTS AROUND 40KT DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT WSW 10-20 KT AT
10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....VM





000
FXUS65 KBOI 041022
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
422 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LINGERING CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST IDAHO AT 4 AM
MDT...EXPECT THIS CLUSTER TO MOVE THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DYING OUT BY 6
AM MDT. ASIDE FROM THIS CLUSTER...THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS MOVED OUT
OF THE REGION BEHIND THE PASSING OF MONDAY/S SHORTWAVE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE NEVADA
BORDER...THE MAGIC VALLEY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BOISE
MOUNTAINS. THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH WILL COME WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECTING HIGH QPF WITH
THIS TROUGH...UP TO 0.1 INCHES IN SOME PLACES...MOSTLY IN THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT NORMAL
TUESDAY AND DROP 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH
DECREASING HEIGHTS AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE
WEDNESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED OVER IDAHO DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER
TROUGH OVER ID THURSDAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS 4-7F BELOW NORMAL THEN
SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COASTAL CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH ACROSS THE ORE-NV BORDER
WHICH IS FASTER THAN GFS/EC. SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN. CA
LOW HAS 80KT UPPER JET SUPPORT WHICH LIFTS NE ACROSS S IDAHO
SATURDAY MORNING SO NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE STILL ON TRACK...AS ARE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH  LIFTS NE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE LONG WAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO START TO
RETROGRADE FOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POPS
FAVORING NE OREGON. AN OFFSHORE TROUGH AND HOT CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
DOMINATE THE LAST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...ISOLATED MFVR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW
IDAHO UNTIL 12Z AND REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z MAINLY NEAR THE ID-NV
BORDER. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WEST 5-15KTS...EXCEPT
GUSTS AROUND 40KT DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT WSW 10-20 KT AT
10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....VM





000
FXUS65 KBOI 040333
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
933 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD HELPED CAP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW IDAHO ZONES. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN SW IDAHO
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A CIRCULATION CENTER OVER S-CENTRAL OREGON HAS
INITIATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT IS TRACKING THROUGH
HARNEY COUNTY AT 830 PM PDT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO
MALHEUR COUNTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MDT WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH AS
THEY APPROACH THE ID/OR LINE BUT COULD VERY WELL PUSH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WOULD
EXPECT SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH...MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. HAVE MADE
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO DECREASE POPS FOR MOST
ZONES /ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT/.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN CENTRAL OREGON THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS UP
TO 45KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR
10K FT MSL...WSW 10-20 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT UPPER LOW WAS IN SWRN WY AND MOVING NNE.
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN OUR CWA BUT
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD HAS LIMITED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HARNEY COUNTY HAS CLEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THAT AREA MAY BE
THE FIRST TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN BY SUNSET
AND SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
MOVES AWAY.  FEWER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW BETTER COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL COME THROUGH TUESDAY.  GREATER SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TODAY.  INSTABILITY
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER
AND CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OFF SRN CALIF WILL ADVECT INTO
OUR CWA AS AN UPPER TROUGH COMES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE WITH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN THAN FROM TONIGHT/S WEAK SHOWERS.  WEDNESDAY
WILL ALSO BE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRYING
AND CLEARING TREND BEHIND IT. ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THURSDAY
AND...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS NEXT LOW HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENTLY SHOWN ACROSS MODELS
AND RUNS...WITH ITS ARRIVAL IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROBABLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS HINT AT A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST...BUT ANY PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVES...PRECIP...OR
MAJOR IMPACTS IS QUITE BLURRY RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT
     ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP/JC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 040333
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
933 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD HELPED CAP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW IDAHO ZONES. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN SW IDAHO
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A CIRCULATION CENTER OVER S-CENTRAL OREGON HAS
INITIATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT IS TRACKING THROUGH
HARNEY COUNTY AT 830 PM PDT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO
MALHEUR COUNTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MDT WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH AS
THEY APPROACH THE ID/OR LINE BUT COULD VERY WELL PUSH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WOULD
EXPECT SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH...MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. HAVE MADE
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO DECREASE POPS FOR MOST
ZONES /ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT/.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN CENTRAL OREGON THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS UP
TO 45KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR
10K FT MSL...WSW 10-20 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT UPPER LOW WAS IN SWRN WY AND MOVING NNE.
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN OUR CWA BUT
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD HAS LIMITED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HARNEY COUNTY HAS CLEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THAT AREA MAY BE
THE FIRST TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN BY SUNSET
AND SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
MOVES AWAY.  FEWER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW BETTER COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL COME THROUGH TUESDAY.  GREATER SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TODAY.  INSTABILITY
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER
AND CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OFF SRN CALIF WILL ADVECT INTO
OUR CWA AS AN UPPER TROUGH COMES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE WITH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN THAN FROM TONIGHT/S WEAK SHOWERS.  WEDNESDAY
WILL ALSO BE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRYING
AND CLEARING TREND BEHIND IT. ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THURSDAY
AND...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS NEXT LOW HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENTLY SHOWN ACROSS MODELS
AND RUNS...WITH ITS ARRIVAL IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROBABLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS HINT AT A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST...BUT ANY PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVES...PRECIP...OR
MAJOR IMPACTS IS QUITE BLURRY RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT
     ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP/JC





000
FXUS65 KBOI 040333
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
933 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD HELPED CAP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW IDAHO ZONES. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN SW IDAHO
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A CIRCULATION CENTER OVER S-CENTRAL OREGON HAS
INITIATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT IS TRACKING THROUGH
HARNEY COUNTY AT 830 PM PDT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO
MALHEUR COUNTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MDT WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH AS
THEY APPROACH THE ID/OR LINE BUT COULD VERY WELL PUSH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WOULD
EXPECT SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH...MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. HAVE MADE
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO DECREASE POPS FOR MOST
ZONES /ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT/.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN CENTRAL OREGON THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS UP
TO 45KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR
10K FT MSL...WSW 10-20 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT UPPER LOW WAS IN SWRN WY AND MOVING NNE.
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN OUR CWA BUT
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD HAS LIMITED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HARNEY COUNTY HAS CLEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THAT AREA MAY BE
THE FIRST TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN BY SUNSET
AND SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
MOVES AWAY.  FEWER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW BETTER COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL COME THROUGH TUESDAY.  GREATER SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TODAY.  INSTABILITY
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER
AND CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OFF SRN CALIF WILL ADVECT INTO
OUR CWA AS AN UPPER TROUGH COMES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE WITH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN THAN FROM TONIGHT/S WEAK SHOWERS.  WEDNESDAY
WILL ALSO BE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRYING
AND CLEARING TREND BEHIND IT. ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THURSDAY
AND...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS NEXT LOW HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENTLY SHOWN ACROSS MODELS
AND RUNS...WITH ITS ARRIVAL IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROBABLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS HINT AT A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST...BUT ANY PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVES...PRECIP...OR
MAJOR IMPACTS IS QUITE BLURRY RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT
     ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP/JC





000
FXUS65 KBOI 032102
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
302 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT UPPER LOW WAS IN SWRN WY AND MOVING NNE.
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN OUR CWA BUT
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD HAS LIMITED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HARNEY COUNTY HAS CLEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THAT AREA MAY BE
THE FIRST TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN BY SUNSET
AND SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
MOVES AWAY.  FEWER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW BETTER COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL COME THROUGH TUESDAY.  GREATER SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TODAY.  INSTABILITY
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER
AND CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OFF SRN CALIF WILL ADVECT INTO
OUR CWA AS AN UPPER TROUGH COMES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE WITH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN THAN FROM TONIGHT/S WEAK SHOWERS.  WEDNESDAY
WILL ALSO BE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRYING
AND CLEARING TREND BEHIND IT. ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THURSDAY
AND...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS NEXT LOW HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENTLY SHOWN ACROSS MODELS
AND RUNS...WITH ITS ARRIVAL IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROBABLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS HINT AT A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST...BUT ANY PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVES...PRECIP...OR
MAJOR IMPACTS IS QUITE BLURRY RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING AFTER 04/09Z.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...UNTIL
04/04Z. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE MAGIC
VALLEY UNTIL 04/01Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WSW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
     MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....EP/JC
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 032102
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
302 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...AT 2 PM MDT UPPER LOW WAS IN SWRN WY AND MOVING NNE.
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN OUR CWA BUT
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD HAS LIMITED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HARNEY COUNTY HAS CLEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THAT AREA MAY BE
THE FIRST TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN BY SUNSET
AND SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
MOVES AWAY.  FEWER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW BETTER COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL COME THROUGH TUESDAY.  GREATER SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TODAY.  INSTABILITY
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER
AND CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OFF SRN CALIF WILL ADVECT INTO
OUR CWA AS AN UPPER TROUGH COMES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE WITH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN THAN FROM TONIGHT/S WEAK SHOWERS.  WEDNESDAY
WILL ALSO BE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRYING
AND CLEARING TREND BEHIND IT. ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THURSDAY
AND...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS NEXT LOW HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENTLY SHOWN ACROSS MODELS
AND RUNS...WITH ITS ARRIVAL IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROBABLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS HINT AT A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST...BUT ANY PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVES...PRECIP...OR
MAJOR IMPACTS IS QUITE BLURRY RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING AFTER 04/09Z.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...UNTIL
04/04Z. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE MAGIC
VALLEY UNTIL 04/01Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WSW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
     MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....EP/JC
AVIATION.....EP





000
FXUS65 KBOI 031520
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW IN UTAH WITH TROUGH EXTENDING WNW-ESE MOVING
NE AT THIS TIME.  THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR CWA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR.  NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 9 AM BUT RADAR SHOWS
LIGHT SHOWRS IN NERN NEVADA NWWD THROUGH THE OWYHEES INTO SRN
MALHEUR COUNTY/OR ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE VIRGA IN OREGON.  THE SHOWERS
WERE SHIFTING SLOWLY NE.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP
AROUND NOON MDT.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
45 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY BETWEEN 03/18Z
AND 04/01Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...THE
CONVECTION IS ONLY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40 MPH IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST...COVERING MOST OF THE REGION...AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH...ALLOWING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO INCREASE
ALONG THE WAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AS
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. CLOUDS WILL
PROGRESSIVELY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
MINIMUMS TO COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL. EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH...MOSTLY ALONG
THE NEVADA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
ABOUT NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND
ITS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SW CANADA AND THE PAC NW THIS
WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL SEND A MOIST/ACTIVE COLD FRONT
ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY NEAR MAX HEATING
TIME. SO WITH CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND DRIED OUT POST-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. QPF DIFFERENCES ARE FOR THE GFS TO BE WETTER OVER SE
ORE TO NV TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE EC TO BE WETTER NEAR THE NV BORDER
THAN THE GFS ON WED. THE FRONT LOOKS TO GO STATIONARY AND DESICCATE
NEAR THE NV BORDER THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT COULD COMPLICATE THE DRY FCST
LATE THIS WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE
SHORT LIVED INTO WED-THUR...AS AN OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS IN WARMER SW
FLOW ALOFT AND MILD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND S-CENTRAL
ID SATURDAY. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW COOLING OFF...AND AS IS
COMMON BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY. AGAIN FOR THE 00Z RUNS THE
GFS HAS MOISTURE LINGERING FARTHER WEST/OREGON/ AND SOUTH/NV BORDER/
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AN MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
     MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM





000
FXUS65 KBOI 031520
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW IN UTAH WITH TROUGH EXTENDING WNW-ESE MOVING
NE AT THIS TIME.  THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR CWA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR.  NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 9 AM BUT RADAR SHOWS
LIGHT SHOWRS IN NERN NEVADA NWWD THROUGH THE OWYHEES INTO SRN
MALHEUR COUNTY/OR ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE VIRGA IN OREGON.  THE SHOWERS
WERE SHIFTING SLOWLY NE.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP
AROUND NOON MDT.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
45 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY BETWEEN 03/18Z
AND 04/01Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...THE
CONVECTION IS ONLY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40 MPH IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST...COVERING MOST OF THE REGION...AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH...ALLOWING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO INCREASE
ALONG THE WAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AS
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. CLOUDS WILL
PROGRESSIVELY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
MINIMUMS TO COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL. EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH...MOSTLY ALONG
THE NEVADA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
ABOUT NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND
ITS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SW CANADA AND THE PAC NW THIS
WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL SEND A MOIST/ACTIVE COLD FRONT
ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY NEAR MAX HEATING
TIME. SO WITH CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND DRIED OUT POST-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. QPF DIFFERENCES ARE FOR THE GFS TO BE WETTER OVER SE
ORE TO NV TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE EC TO BE WETTER NEAR THE NV BORDER
THAN THE GFS ON WED. THE FRONT LOOKS TO GO STATIONARY AND DESICCATE
NEAR THE NV BORDER THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT COULD COMPLICATE THE DRY FCST
LATE THIS WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE
SHORT LIVED INTO WED-THUR...AS AN OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS IN WARMER SW
FLOW ALOFT AND MILD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND S-CENTRAL
ID SATURDAY. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW COOLING OFF...AND AS IS
COMMON BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY. AGAIN FOR THE 00Z RUNS THE
GFS HAS MOISTURE LINGERING FARTHER WEST/OREGON/ AND SOUTH/NV BORDER/
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AN MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
     MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM




000
FXUS65 KBOI 031520
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW IN UTAH WITH TROUGH EXTENDING WNW-ESE MOVING
NE AT THIS TIME.  THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR CWA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR.  NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 9 AM BUT RADAR SHOWS
LIGHT SHOWRS IN NERN NEVADA NWWD THROUGH THE OWYHEES INTO SRN
MALHEUR COUNTY/OR ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE VIRGA IN OREGON.  THE SHOWERS
WERE SHIFTING SLOWLY NE.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP
AROUND NOON MDT.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
45 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY BETWEEN 03/18Z
AND 04/01Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...THE
CONVECTION IS ONLY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40 MPH IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST...COVERING MOST OF THE REGION...AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH...ALLOWING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO INCREASE
ALONG THE WAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AS
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. CLOUDS WILL
PROGRESSIVELY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
MINIMUMS TO COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL. EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH...MOSTLY ALONG
THE NEVADA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
ABOUT NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND
ITS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SW CANADA AND THE PAC NW THIS
WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL SEND A MOIST/ACTIVE COLD FRONT
ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY NEAR MAX HEATING
TIME. SO WITH CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND DRIED OUT POST-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. QPF DIFFERENCES ARE FOR THE GFS TO BE WETTER OVER SE
ORE TO NV TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE EC TO BE WETTER NEAR THE NV BORDER
THAN THE GFS ON WED. THE FRONT LOOKS TO GO STATIONARY AND DESICCATE
NEAR THE NV BORDER THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT COULD COMPLICATE THE DRY FCST
LATE THIS WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE
SHORT LIVED INTO WED-THUR...AS AN OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS IN WARMER SW
FLOW ALOFT AND MILD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND S-CENTRAL
ID SATURDAY. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW COOLING OFF...AND AS IS
COMMON BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY. AGAIN FOR THE 00Z RUNS THE
GFS HAS MOISTURE LINGERING FARTHER WEST/OREGON/ AND SOUTH/NV BORDER/
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AN MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
     MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM





000
FXUS65 KBOI 031520
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW IN UTAH WITH TROUGH EXTENDING WNW-ESE MOVING
NE AT THIS TIME.  THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR CWA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR.  NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 9 AM BUT RADAR SHOWS
LIGHT SHOWRS IN NERN NEVADA NWWD THROUGH THE OWYHEES INTO SRN
MALHEUR COUNTY/OR ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE VIRGA IN OREGON.  THE SHOWERS
WERE SHIFTING SLOWLY NE.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP
AROUND NOON MDT.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
45 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY BETWEEN 03/18Z
AND 04/01Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...THE
CONVECTION IS ONLY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40 MPH IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST...COVERING MOST OF THE REGION...AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH...ALLOWING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO INCREASE
ALONG THE WAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AS
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. CLOUDS WILL
PROGRESSIVELY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
MINIMUMS TO COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL. EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH...MOSTLY ALONG
THE NEVADA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
ABOUT NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND
ITS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SW CANADA AND THE PAC NW THIS
WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL SEND A MOIST/ACTIVE COLD FRONT
ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY NEAR MAX HEATING
TIME. SO WITH CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND DRIED OUT POST-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. QPF DIFFERENCES ARE FOR THE GFS TO BE WETTER OVER SE
ORE TO NV TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE EC TO BE WETTER NEAR THE NV BORDER
THAN THE GFS ON WED. THE FRONT LOOKS TO GO STATIONARY AND DESICCATE
NEAR THE NV BORDER THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT COULD COMPLICATE THE DRY FCST
LATE THIS WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE
SHORT LIVED INTO WED-THUR...AS AN OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS IN WARMER SW
FLOW ALOFT AND MILD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND S-CENTRAL
ID SATURDAY. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW COOLING OFF...AND AS IS
COMMON BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY. AGAIN FOR THE 00Z RUNS THE
GFS HAS MOISTURE LINGERING FARTHER WEST/OREGON/ AND SOUTH/NV BORDER/
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AN MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
     MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM




000
FXUS65 KBOI 031519
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW IN UTAH WITH TROUGH EXTENDING WNW-ESE MOVING
NE AT THIS TIME.  THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR CWA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR.  NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 9 AM BUT RADAR SHOWS
LIGHT SHOERS IN NERN NEVADA NWWD THROUGH THE OWYHEES INTO SRN
MALHEUR COUNTY/OR ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE VIRGA IN OREGON.  THE SHOWERS
WERE SHIFTING SLOWLY NE.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP
AROUND NOON MDT.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
45 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY BETWEEN 03/18Z
AND 04/01Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...THE
CONVECTION IS ONLY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40 MPH IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST...COVERING MOST OF THE REGION...AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH...ALLOWING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO INCREASE
ALONG THE WAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AS
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. CLOUDS WILL
PROGRESSIVELY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
MINIMUMS TO COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL. EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH...MOSTLY ALONG
THE NEVADA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
ABOUT NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND
ITS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SW CANADA AND THE PAC NW THIS
WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL SEND A MOIST/ACTIVE COLD FRONT
ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY NEAR MAX HEATING
TIME. SO WITH CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND DRIED OUT POST-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. QPF DIFFERENCES ARE FOR THE GFS TO BE WETTER OVER SE
ORE TO NV TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE EC TO BE WETTER NEAR THE NV BORDER
THAN THE GFS ON WED. THE FRONT LOOKS TO GO STATIONARY AND DESICCATE
NEAR THE NV BORDER THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT COULD COMPLICATE THE DRY FCST
LATE THIS WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE
SHORT LIVED INTO WED-THUR...AS AN OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS IN WARMER SW
FLOW ALOFT AND MILD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND S-CENTRAL
ID SATURDAY. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW COOLING OFF...AND AS IS
COMMON BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY. AGAIN FOR THE 00Z RUNS THE
GFS HAS MOISTURE LINGERING FARTHER WEST/OREGON/ AND SOUTH/NV BORDER/
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AN MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
     MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM




000
FXUS65 KBOI 031519
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW IN UTAH WITH TROUGH EXTENDING WNW-ESE MOVING
NE AT THIS TIME.  THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH OUR CWA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR.  NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 9 AM BUT RADAR SHOWS
LIGHT SHOERS IN NERN NEVADA NWWD THROUGH THE OWYHEES INTO SRN
MALHEUR COUNTY/OR ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE VIRGA IN OREGON.  THE SHOWERS
WERE SHIFTING SLOWLY NE.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP
AROUND NOON MDT.  CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VARIABLE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
45 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY BETWEEN 03/18Z
AND 04/01Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...THE
CONVECTION IS ONLY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40 MPH IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST...COVERING MOST OF THE REGION...AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH...ALLOWING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO INCREASE
ALONG THE WAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL TODAY AS
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN. CLOUDS WILL
PROGRESSIVELY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
MINIMUMS TO COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL. EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH...MOSTLY ALONG
THE NEVADA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
ABOUT NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND
ITS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SW CANADA AND THE PAC NW THIS
WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL SEND A MOIST/ACTIVE COLD FRONT
ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY NEAR MAX HEATING
TIME. SO WITH CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND DRIED OUT POST-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. QPF DIFFERENCES ARE FOR THE GFS TO BE WETTER OVER SE
ORE TO NV TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE EC TO BE WETTER NEAR THE NV BORDER
THAN THE GFS ON WED. THE FRONT LOOKS TO GO STATIONARY AND DESICCATE
NEAR THE NV BORDER THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT COULD COMPLICATE THE DRY FCST
LATE THIS WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE
SHORT LIVED INTO WED-THUR...AS AN OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS IN WARMER SW
FLOW ALOFT AND MILD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CWFA FRIDAY AND S-CENTRAL
ID SATURDAY. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW COOLING OFF...AND AS IS
COMMON BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY. AGAIN FOR THE 00Z RUNS THE
GFS HAS MOISTURE LINGERING FARTHER WEST/OREGON/ AND SOUTH/NV BORDER/
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AN MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
     MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM





000
FXUS65 KBOI 030948
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
348 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...THE
CONVECTION IS ONLY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40 MPH IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST...COVERING MOST OF THE REGION...AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH...ALLOWING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE ALONG THE WAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN TO ABOUT
NORMAL TODAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE
IN. CLOUDS WILL PROGRESSIVELY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING MINIMUMS TO COME DOWN TO ABOUT NORMAL.
EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY THROUGH...MOSTLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOUT NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND
ITS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SW CANADA AND THE PAC NW THIS
WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL SEND A MOIST/ACTIVE COLD FRONT
ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY NEAR MAX HEATING
TIME. SO WITH CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND DRIED OUT POST-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. QPF DIFFERENCES ARE FOR THE GFS TO BE WETTER OVER SE
ORE TO NV TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE EC TO BE WETTER NEAR THE NV BORDER
THAN THE GFS ON WED. THE FRONT LOOKS TO GO STATIONARY AND
DESICCATE NEAR THE NV BORDER THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT COULD COMPLICATE
THE DRY FCST LATE THIS WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
TROUGH WILL BE SHORT LIVED INTO WED-THUR...AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
BRINGS IN WARMER SW FLOW ALOFT AND MILD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CWFA
FRIDAY AND S-CENTRAL ID SATURDAY. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW
COOLING OFF...AND AS IS COMMON BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY.
AGAIN FOR THE 00Z RUNS THE GFS HAS MOISTURE LINGERING FARTHER
WEST/OREGON/ AND SOUTH/NV BORDER/ ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AN
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR WIG IN RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING FROM NEAR THE NV BORDER THIS MORNING TO ACROSS
CENTRAL PARTS OF OREGON/IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. SE TO SW WINDS
INCREASING TO 5-15 KTS AFTER 16Z...EXCEPT 10-20KTS SOUTH OF A
KBNO- KBOI-KJER LINE UNTIL 06Z TUESDAY. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
SHIFTING FROM SE 15KTS TO SW 20KTS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
     MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....VM





000
FXUS65 KBOI 030254
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
854 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE STAYED JUST OFF THE EDGES OF THE CWA FOR
THE MOST PART THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
SRN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES. WE STILL EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
SPREADING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA.
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN NEVADA TO SOUTHERN OREGON. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY VARIABLE 10KT...EXCEPT SW TO WESTERLY 10-20KT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL OREGON NEAR KREO-KBNO AND IDAHO OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45KT THIS EVENING. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...VARIABLE 5-
15KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA FROM THE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS WARM TONIGHT.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SO FAR STAYED WELL SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA.  A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN SRN NEVADA WILL
MOVE NORTH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR CWA.  THE TROUGH...CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPS
DOWN MONDAY.  TEMPS WILL WARM BACK UP A COUPLE DEGS TUESDAY AS
THE TROUGH EXITS NEWD.  MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL THEN LEAD
TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SRN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY LIGHT QPF BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SO POPS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOW.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW LOCATED
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
SEND A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIP WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS STICKING TO A DRIER SOLUTION WITH PRECIP MAINLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...MORE MODELS ARE
IN LINE WITH THE GFS...INCLUDING THE LATEST NAM...SO HAVE TRENDED
THE FORECAST POPS HIGHER FOR WEDNESDAY IN GENERAL. IT LOOKS LIKE
SOME SORT OF COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS WELL...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM
TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH OF A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
FOR THURSDAY AND A CUT-OFF LOW FROM COASTAL CALIFORNIA MOVING NE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS IS ALSO
DEPICTING MORE QPF WITH THIS LOW THAN THE ECMWF.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/
     MONDAY ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP/DD




000
FXUS65 KBOI 030254
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
854 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE STAYED JUST OFF THE EDGES OF THE CWA FOR
THE MOST PART THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
SRN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES. WE STILL EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
SPREADING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA.
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN NEVADA TO SOUTHERN OREGON. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY VARIABLE 10KT...EXCEPT SW TO WESTERLY 10-20KT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL OREGON NEAR KREO-KBNO AND IDAHO OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45KT THIS EVENING. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...VARIABLE 5-
15KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA FROM THE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS WARM TONIGHT.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SO FAR STAYED WELL SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA.  A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN SRN NEVADA WILL
MOVE NORTH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR CWA.  THE TROUGH...CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPS
DOWN MONDAY.  TEMPS WILL WARM BACK UP A COUPLE DEGS TUESDAY AS
THE TROUGH EXITS NEWD.  MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL THEN LEAD
TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SRN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY LIGHT QPF BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SO POPS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOW.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW LOCATED
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
SEND A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIP WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS STICKING TO A DRIER SOLUTION WITH PRECIP MAINLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...MORE MODELS ARE
IN LINE WITH THE GFS...INCLUDING THE LATEST NAM...SO HAVE TRENDED
THE FORECAST POPS HIGHER FOR WEDNESDAY IN GENERAL. IT LOOKS LIKE
SOME SORT OF COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS WELL...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM
TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH OF A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
FOR THURSDAY AND A CUT-OFF LOW FROM COASTAL CALIFORNIA MOVING NE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS IS ALSO
DEPICTING MORE QPF WITH THIS LOW THAN THE ECMWF.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/
     MONDAY ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP/DD





000
FXUS65 KBOI 022012 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
212 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA FROM THE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS WARM TONIGHT.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SO FAR STAYED WELL SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA.  A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN SRN NEVADA WILL
MOVE NORTH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR CWA.  THE TROUGH...CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPS
DOWN MONDAY.  TEMPS WILL WARM BACK UP A COUPLE DEGS TUESDAY AS
THE TROUGH EXITS NEWD.  MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL THEN LEAD
TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SRN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY LIGHT QPF BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SO POPS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOW.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW LOCATED
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
SEND A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIP WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS STICKING TO A DRIER SOLUTION WITH PRECIP MAINLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...MORE MODELS ARE
IN LINE WITH THE GFS...INCLUDING THE LATEST NAM...SO HAVE TRENDED
THE FORECAST POPS HIGHER FOR WEDNESDAY IN GENERAL. IT LOOKS LIKE
SOME SORT OF COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS WELL...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM
TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH OF A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
FOR THURSDAY AND A CUT-OFF LOW FROM COASTAL CALIFORNIA MOVING NE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS IS ALSO
DEPICTING MORE QPF WITH THIS LOW THAN THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER AFTER
03/00Z...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING AFTER 03/18Z TO INCLUDE MOST
MOUNTAIN AREAS. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT
NEAR 10K FT MSL...VARIABLE AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY IDZ423-426.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/
     MONDAY ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....EP/DD
AVIATION.....EP





000
FXUS65 KBOI 021511 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
911 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...MID/HIGH CLOUDS THINNED DURING THE NIGHT BUT MORE
WILL COME INTO OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTH LATER TODAY.  AT 8 AM MDT
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WAS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND MOST FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL STILL BE IN OREGON WEST OF HARNEY COUNTY...BUT INSTABILITY AND
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN SRN IDAHO ZONES OVERNIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE SATURDAY BUT SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER MONDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS THESE TRENDS AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER AFTER 03/00Z...WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE
10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...EAST AT 5-10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS THE MONSOON
MOISTURE CIRCLES AROUND THE RIDGE. WILL BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST OREGON...ALONG THE NEVADA/
IDAHO BORDER...AND THE BOISE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GET A SWIFT KICK INTO OUR REGION
MONDAY AS A WELL FORECAST SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER MOST OF THE
REGION. TODAY/S TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD
HIGHS AS THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN
TONIGHT BEHIND A WEAKENING RIDGE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
RELATIVELY WARM. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
MONDAY TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY IS SLOWEST TO EXIT IN THE GFS AND CUTS OFF
TOO QUICKLY IN THE NAM...SO A GFS/EC BLEND WAS PREFERRED AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH SW IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT. LOWERED POPS TUESDAY
ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA LOW IS FARTHER NORTH.
THAT POSITION ALLOWS A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WITH TRANSIENT
STABILITY TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE B.C. UPPER LOW
LOOKS TO ABSORB ENERGY FROM ANOTHER LOW OFFSHORE...WITH THE 00Z EC
WETTER OR SLOWER THAN THE 00Z GFS. SO TRENDED UP ON POPS LATE WED.
GOOD AGREEMENT IN GFS/EC WITH TROUGH BRINGING A BREAK IN THE WEEKEND
HEAT WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES TO
THE DRIER FORECAST WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT DID INCREASE POPS FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND AS A
CUT-OFF LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST...OR MAYBE
INLAND...ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     IDZ400-401-423-426.
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     ORZ636-637-646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM





000
FXUS65 KBOI 021511 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
911 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...MID/HIGH CLOUDS THINNED DURING THE NIGHT BUT MORE
WILL COME INTO OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTH LATER TODAY.  AT 8 AM MDT
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WAS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND MOST FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL STILL BE IN OREGON WEST OF HARNEY COUNTY...BUT INSTABILITY AND
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN SRN IDAHO ZONES OVERNIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE SATURDAY BUT SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER MONDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS THESE TRENDS AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER AFTER 03/00Z...WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE
10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...EAST AT 5-10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS THE MONSOON
MOISTURE CIRCLES AROUND THE RIDGE. WILL BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST OREGON...ALONG THE NEVADA/
IDAHO BORDER...AND THE BOISE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GET A SWIFT KICK INTO OUR REGION
MONDAY AS A WELL FORECAST SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER MOST OF THE
REGION. TODAY/S TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD
HIGHS AS THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN
TONIGHT BEHIND A WEAKENING RIDGE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
RELATIVELY WARM. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
MONDAY TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY IS SLOWEST TO EXIT IN THE GFS AND CUTS OFF
TOO QUICKLY IN THE NAM...SO A GFS/EC BLEND WAS PREFERRED AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH SW IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT. LOWERED POPS TUESDAY
ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA LOW IS FARTHER NORTH.
THAT POSITION ALLOWS A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WITH TRANSIENT
STABILITY TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE B.C. UPPER LOW
LOOKS TO ABSORB ENERGY FROM ANOTHER LOW OFFSHORE...WITH THE 00Z EC
WETTER OR SLOWER THAN THE 00Z GFS. SO TRENDED UP ON POPS LATE WED.
GOOD AGREEMENT IN GFS/EC WITH TROUGH BRINGING A BREAK IN THE WEEKEND
HEAT WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES TO
THE DRIER FORECAST WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT DID INCREASE POPS FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND AS A
CUT-OFF LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST...OR MAYBE
INLAND...ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     IDZ400-401-423-426.
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     ORZ636-637-646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM




000
FXUS65 KBOI 021511 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
911 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...MID/HIGH CLOUDS THINNED DURING THE NIGHT BUT MORE
WILL COME INTO OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTH LATER TODAY.  AT 8 AM MDT
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WAS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND MOST FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL STILL BE IN OREGON WEST OF HARNEY COUNTY...BUT INSTABILITY AND
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN SRN IDAHO ZONES OVERNIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE SATURDAY BUT SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER MONDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS THESE TRENDS AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER AFTER 03/00Z...WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE
10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...EAST AT 5-10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS THE MONSOON
MOISTURE CIRCLES AROUND THE RIDGE. WILL BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST OREGON...ALONG THE NEVADA/
IDAHO BORDER...AND THE BOISE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GET A SWIFT KICK INTO OUR REGION
MONDAY AS A WELL FORECAST SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER MOST OF THE
REGION. TODAY/S TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD
HIGHS AS THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN
TONIGHT BEHIND A WEAKENING RIDGE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
RELATIVELY WARM. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
MONDAY TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY IS SLOWEST TO EXIT IN THE GFS AND CUTS OFF
TOO QUICKLY IN THE NAM...SO A GFS/EC BLEND WAS PREFERRED AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH SW IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT. LOWERED POPS TUESDAY
ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA LOW IS FARTHER NORTH.
THAT POSITION ALLOWS A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WITH TRANSIENT
STABILITY TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE B.C. UPPER LOW
LOOKS TO ABSORB ENERGY FROM ANOTHER LOW OFFSHORE...WITH THE 00Z EC
WETTER OR SLOWER THAN THE 00Z GFS. SO TRENDED UP ON POPS LATE WED.
GOOD AGREEMENT IN GFS/EC WITH TROUGH BRINGING A BREAK IN THE WEEKEND
HEAT WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES TO
THE DRIER FORECAST WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT DID INCREASE POPS FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND AS A
CUT-OFF LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST...OR MAYBE
INLAND...ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     IDZ400-401-423-426.
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     ORZ636-637-646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM





000
FXUS65 KBOI 021511 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
911 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...MID/HIGH CLOUDS THINNED DURING THE NIGHT BUT MORE
WILL COME INTO OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTH LATER TODAY.  AT 8 AM MDT
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WAS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND MOST FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL STILL BE IN OREGON WEST OF HARNEY COUNTY...BUT INSTABILITY AND
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN SRN IDAHO ZONES OVERNIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE SATURDAY BUT SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER MONDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS THESE TRENDS AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER AFTER 03/00Z...WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE
10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...EAST AT 5-10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS THE MONSOON
MOISTURE CIRCLES AROUND THE RIDGE. WILL BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST OREGON...ALONG THE NEVADA/
IDAHO BORDER...AND THE BOISE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GET A SWIFT KICK INTO OUR REGION
MONDAY AS A WELL FORECAST SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER MOST OF THE
REGION. TODAY/S TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD
HIGHS AS THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN
TONIGHT BEHIND A WEAKENING RIDGE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
RELATIVELY WARM. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
MONDAY TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY IS SLOWEST TO EXIT IN THE GFS AND CUTS OFF
TOO QUICKLY IN THE NAM...SO A GFS/EC BLEND WAS PREFERRED AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH SW IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT. LOWERED POPS TUESDAY
ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA LOW IS FARTHER NORTH.
THAT POSITION ALLOWS A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WITH TRANSIENT
STABILITY TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE B.C. UPPER LOW
LOOKS TO ABSORB ENERGY FROM ANOTHER LOW OFFSHORE...WITH THE 00Z EC
WETTER OR SLOWER THAN THE 00Z GFS. SO TRENDED UP ON POPS LATE WED.
GOOD AGREEMENT IN GFS/EC WITH TROUGH BRINGING A BREAK IN THE WEEKEND
HEAT WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES TO
THE DRIER FORECAST WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT DID INCREASE POPS FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND AS A
CUT-OFF LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST...OR MAYBE
INLAND...ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     IDZ400-401-423-426.
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     ORZ636-637-646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...AB
PREV LONG TERM....VM




000
FXUS65 KBOI 020931 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
331 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS THE MONSOON
MOISTURE CIRCLES AROUND THE RIDGE. WILL BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST OREGON...ALONG THE NEVADA
BORDER...AND THE BOISE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GET A SWIFT KICK INTO OUR REGION
MONDAY AS A WELL FORECASTED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER MOST OF THE
REGION. SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD
HIGHS AS THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN
SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND A WEAKENING RIDGE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY RELATIVELY WARM. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP MONDAY TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY IS SLOWEST TO EXIT IN THE GFS AND CUTS OFF
TOO QUICKLY IN THE NAM...SO A GFS/EC BLEND WAS PREFERRED AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH SW IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT. LOWERED POPS TUESDAY
ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA LOW IS FARTHER NORTH.
THAT POSITION ALLOWS A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WITH TRANSIENT
STABILITY TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE B.C. UPPER LOW
LOOKS TO ABSORB ENERGY FROM ANOTHER LOW OFFSHORE...WITH THE 00Z EC
WETTER OR SLOWER THAN THE 00Z GFS. SO TRENDED UP ON POPS LATE WED.
GOOD AGREEMENT IN GFS/EC WITH TROUGH BRINGING A BREAK IN THE WEEKEND
HEAT WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES TO
THE DRIER FORECAST WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT DID INCREASE POPS FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND AS A
CUT OFF LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST...OR MAYBE
INLAND...ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SW-W 5-15 KTS. WINDS
ALOFT BECOMING EAST 5-15 KTS UP TO 10K FT MSL. GUSTS UP TO 40KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     IDZ400-401-423-426.
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     ORZ636-637-646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....VM




000
FXUS65 KBOI 020931
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
331 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS THE MONSOON
MOISTURE CIRCLES AROUND THE RIDGE. WILL BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST OREGON...ALONG THE NEVADA
BORDER...AND THE BOISE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GET A SWIFT KICK INTO OUR REGION
MONDAY AS A WELL FORECASTED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER MOST OF THE
REGION. SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD
HIGHS AS THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN
SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND A WEAKENING RIDGE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY RELATIVELY WARM. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP MONDAY TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY IS SLOWEST TO EXIT IN THE GFS AND CUTS OFF
TOO QUICKLY IN THE NAM...SO A GFS/EC BLEND WAS PREFERRED AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH SW IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT. LOWERED POPS TUESDAY
ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA LOW IS FARTHER NORTH.
THAT POSITION ALLOWS A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WITH TRANSIENT
STABILITY TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE B.C. UPPER LOW
LOOKS TO ABSORB ENERGY FROM ANOTHER LOW OFFSHORE...WITH THE 00Z EC
WETTER OR SLOWER THAN THE 00Z GFS. SO TRENDED UP ON POPS LATE WED.
GOOD AGREEMENT IN GFS/EC WITH TROUGH BRINGING A BREAK IN THE WEEKEND
HEAT WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES TO
THE DRIER FORECAST WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT DID INCREASE POPS FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND AS A
CUT OFF LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST...OR MAYBE
INLAND...ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SW-W 5-15 KTS. WINDS
ALOFT BECOMING EAST 5-15 KTS UP TO 10K FT MSL. GUSTS UP TO 40KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z.



&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     IDZ400-401-423-426.
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     ORZ636-637-646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....VM





000
FXUS65 KBOI 020931
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
331 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS THE MONSOON
MOISTURE CIRCLES AROUND THE RIDGE. WILL BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST OREGON...ALONG THE NEVADA
BORDER...AND THE BOISE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GET A SWIFT KICK INTO OUR REGION
MONDAY AS A WELL FORECASTED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER MOST OF THE
REGION. SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD
HIGHS AS THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN
SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND A WEAKENING RIDGE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY RELATIVELY WARM. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP MONDAY TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY IS SLOWEST TO EXIT IN THE GFS AND CUTS OFF
TOO QUICKLY IN THE NAM...SO A GFS/EC BLEND WAS PREFERRED AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH SW IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT. LOWERED POPS TUESDAY
ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA LOW IS FARTHER NORTH.
THAT POSITION ALLOWS A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WITH TRANSIENT
STABILITY TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE B.C. UPPER LOW
LOOKS TO ABSORB ENERGY FROM ANOTHER LOW OFFSHORE...WITH THE 00Z EC
WETTER OR SLOWER THAN THE 00Z GFS. SO TRENDED UP ON POPS LATE WED.
GOOD AGREEMENT IN GFS/EC WITH TROUGH BRINGING A BREAK IN THE WEEKEND
HEAT WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES TO
THE DRIER FORECAST WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT DID INCREASE POPS FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND AS A
CUT OFF LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST...OR MAYBE
INLAND...ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SW-W 5-15 KTS. WINDS
ALOFT BECOMING EAST 5-15 KTS UP TO 10K FT MSL. GUSTS UP TO 40KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z.



&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     IDZ400-401-423-426.
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     ORZ636-637-646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....VM





000
FXUS65 KBOI 020931
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
331 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS THE MONSOON
MOISTURE CIRCLES AROUND THE RIDGE. WILL BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST OREGON...ALONG THE NEVADA
BORDER...AND THE BOISE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GET A SWIFT KICK INTO OUR REGION
MONDAY AS A WELL FORECASTED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER MOST OF THE
REGION. SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD
HIGHS AS THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN
SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND A WEAKENING RIDGE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY RELATIVELY WARM. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP MONDAY TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY IS SLOWEST TO EXIT IN THE GFS AND CUTS OFF
TOO QUICKLY IN THE NAM...SO A GFS/EC BLEND WAS PREFERRED AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH SW IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT. LOWERED POPS TUESDAY
ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA LOW IS FARTHER NORTH.
THAT POSITION ALLOWS A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE WITH TRANSIENT
STABILITY TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE B.C. UPPER LOW
LOOKS TO ABSORB ENERGY FROM ANOTHER LOW OFFSHORE...WITH THE 00Z EC
WETTER OR SLOWER THAN THE 00Z GFS. SO TRENDED UP ON POPS LATE WED.
GOOD AGREEMENT IN GFS/EC WITH TROUGH BRINGING A BREAK IN THE WEEKEND
HEAT WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES TO
THE DRIER FORECAST WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY BUT DID INCREASE POPS FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND AS A
CUT OFF LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST...OR MAYBE
INLAND...ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SW-W 5-15 KTS. WINDS
ALOFT BECOMING EAST 5-15 KTS UP TO 10K FT MSL. GUSTS UP TO 40KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z.



&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     IDZ400-401-423-426.
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     ORZ636-637-646.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....VM




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