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000
FXUS65 KBOI 050244
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
844 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OFF OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PACNW. SO FAR THIS EVENING...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IN SE OREGON AND A A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SW IDAHO. STILL
EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY TO BETTER REFLECT THAT AREAL
COVERAGE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN SE OREGON. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY 12KT OR LESS EXCEPT GUSTS UP TO 35KT IN VICINITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL...SSE 20-30KT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
SPLITTING TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR TONIGHT ENERGY MOVING
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO TO
INCLUDE THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL ID MTNS.
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
THE FOCUS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE WEST-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF ID ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL ENCOUNTER AN DECENT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD
SUPPORT STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN
HARNEY...BAKER...ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES. WITH THIS HAVE ADDED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
TROUGH FULLY SPLITS THE SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE INLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. COVERAGE INCREASES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
STRONGER CELLS TO DEVELOP. WHILE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY THEY
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW SITS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE
PERIOD. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OREGON AND
IDAHO ZONES. INSTABILITY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. BY SUNDAY AN UPPER
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL HELP CLEAR
THE AREA OF ANY PRECIPITATION. THINGS START TO CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY THIS TROUGH MAY CAUSE SOME
PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE JUST A SLIGHT MENTION OF IT
IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WILL BE
2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JC





000
FXUS65 KBOI 042125
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
325 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
SPLITTING TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR TONIGHT ENERGY MOVING
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO TO
INCLUDE THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL ID MTNS.
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
THE FOCUS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE WEST-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF ID ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL ENCOUNTER AN DECENT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD
SUPPORT STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN
HARNEY...BAKER...ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES. WITH THIS HAVE ADDED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
TROUGH FULLY SPLITS THE SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE INLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. COVERAGE INCREASES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
STRONGER CELLS TO DEVELOP. WHILE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY THEY
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW SITS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE
PERIOD. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OREGON AND
IDAHO ZONES. INSTABILITY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. BY SUNDAY AN UPPER
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL HELP CLEAR
THE AREA OF ANY PRECIPITATION. THINGS START TO CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY THIS TROUGH MAY CAUSE SOME
PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE JUST A SLIGHT MENTION OF IT
IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WILL BE
2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
SOUTHEAST OREGON THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE
WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT UP TO 10K FT
MSL...SOUTHERLY 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&


.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JC
AVIATION.....JC





000
FXUS65 KBOI 041604
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1004 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE INCREASING ON SOUTHERLY FLOW AND COUPLED
WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY WILL INITIATE OVER HARNEY AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR
COUNTIES...WORKING GRADUALLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRANSITION THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY NOSES NORTHWARDS. WOULD SEE A LESSENING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK FOR TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST OREGON
WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO LATER TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS...MOSTLY SOUTHERLY 10 TO 15KTS WITH SOUTHEAST OREGON
SWITCHING TO NORTHERLY AND LIGHT BY EARLY MORNING. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHERLY 15 TO 20KTS UP TO 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST
COAST HAS BEGUN TO SPLIT...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH TRANSITIONING TO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA TODAY...BETWEEN THE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
MID 80S. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SE OREGON THIS MORNING.
AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST...SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SE OREGON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN SW IDAHO /EXCEPT REMAINING DRY EAST OF BOISE/. INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH/UPPER CLOSED
LOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY CLOSER ON THURSDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FURTHER...ESPECIALLY IN SE OREGON AND IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. STILL LOOKS DRY ACROSS THE TREASURE/WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEYS...SOUTH TO THE ID/NV BORDER. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH /INCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/ WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG /GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL/. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM IN SW IDAHO BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER IN SE OREGON ON
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A VERY LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COUNTER CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
CIRCULATION WILL MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE LOW THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN US AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE A BIT RAIN COOLED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH MAY HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JC
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 041604
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1004 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE INCREASING ON SOUTHERLY FLOW AND COUPLED
WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY WILL INITIATE OVER HARNEY AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR
COUNTIES...WORKING GRADUALLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRANSITION THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY NOSES NORTHWARDS. WOULD SEE A LESSENING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK FOR TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST OREGON
WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO LATER TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS...MOSTLY SOUTHERLY 10 TO 15KTS WITH SOUTHEAST OREGON
SWITCHING TO NORTHERLY AND LIGHT BY EARLY MORNING. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHERLY 15 TO 20KTS UP TO 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST
COAST HAS BEGUN TO SPLIT...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH TRANSITIONING TO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA TODAY...BETWEEN THE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
MID 80S. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SE OREGON THIS MORNING.
AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST...SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SE OREGON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN SW IDAHO /EXCEPT REMAINING DRY EAST OF BOISE/. INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH/UPPER CLOSED
LOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY CLOSER ON THURSDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FURTHER...ESPECIALLY IN SE OREGON AND IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. STILL LOOKS DRY ACROSS THE TREASURE/WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEYS...SOUTH TO THE ID/NV BORDER. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH /INCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/ WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG /GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL/. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM IN SW IDAHO BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER IN SE OREGON ON
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A VERY LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COUNTER CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
CIRCULATION WILL MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE LOW THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN US AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE A BIT RAIN COOLED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH MAY HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JC
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 040921
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
321 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST
COAST HAS BEGUN TO SPLIT...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH TRANSITIONING TO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA TODAY...BETWEEN THE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
MID 80S. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SE OREGON THIS MORNING.
AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST...SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SE OREGON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN SW IDAHO /EXCEPT REMAINING DRY EAST OF BOISE/. INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH/UPPER CLOSED
LOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY CLOSER ON THURSDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FURTHER...ESPECIALLY IN SE OREGON AND IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. STILL LOOKS DRY ACROSS THE TREASURE/WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEYS...SOUTH TO THE ID/NV BORDER. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH /INCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/ WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG /GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL/. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM IN SW IDAHO BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER IN SE OREGON ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A VERY LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COUNTER CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
CIRCULATION WILL MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE LOW THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN US AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE A BIT RAIN COOLED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH MAY HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO IDAHO IN THE EARLY
EVENING. SURFACE WINDS...GENERALLY FROM AN EAST OR SOUTH EASTERLY
DIRECTION AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT UP TO 10K FT MSL...SOUTHERLY 20 TO 25
KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION.....JB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 040226
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
826 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING...CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT UNDER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXISTS IN SOUTHEAST OREGON. A
FEW ECHOES HAVE APPEARED ON RADAR IN THE OREGON ZONES...HOWEVER...GIVEN
THAT THE RH VALUES ARE IN THE 20S AND 30 AT BEST...THERE IS
LIKELY NO PRECIP HITTING THE GROUND. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK AND THERE ARE NO UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SOUTHWEST IDAHO TONIGHT. INCREASING
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OREGON SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST
IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO AND
OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST 10 KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHERLY
10-15 KTS UP TO 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW EVOLVING UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY AND LIFT ALONG A SPLITTING TROUGH WILL FOCUS SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION ARE SLOW TO
MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS CUTTING OFF
ALONG THE CENTRAL-CA COAST. SOUTHEAST OREGON REMAINS THE FOCUS OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING
INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN BOISE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY. THE TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
PEAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE ID/OR
BORDER. SOME COOLING THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OREGON ZONES DUE TO GREATER CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL
BE THE MAIN EVENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS THE UPPER LOW TREKS EAST FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVES
INLAND...SOUTH OF THE NEVADA BORDER...THE PRECIP BULL/S EYE WILL
SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE WILL COME
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF CONFLUENCE SETS UP
ACROSS THE NEVADA BORDER...THOUGH THIS BOUNDARY SEEMS TO BE TRENDING
SOUTHWARD WITH EACH MODEL RUN. THEREFORE...COULD SEE LESS AREAL
COVERAGE IN NEXT FORECASTS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL
CURVE AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHWEST IDAHO FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A TROUGH TO THE NORTH KICKS
IT OUT OF THE AREA...DRYING OUT THE REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE MID 70S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....AB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 032045
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
245 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW EVOLVING UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY AND LIFT ALONG A SPLITTING TROUGH WILL FOCUS SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION ARE SLOW TO
MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS CUTTING OFF
ALONG THE CENTRAL-CA COAST. SOUTHEAST OREGON REMAINS THE FOCUS OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING
INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN BOISE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY. THE TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
PEAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE ID/OR
BORDER. SOME COOLING THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OREGON ZONES DUE TO GREATER CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL
BE THE MAIN EVENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS THE UPPER LOW TREKS EAST FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVES
INLAND...SOUTH OF THE NEVADA BORDER...THE PRECIP BULL/S EYE WILL
SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE WILL COME
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF CONFLUENCE SETS UP
ACROSS THE NEVADA BORDER...THOUGH THIS BOUNDARY SEEMS TO BE TRENDING
SOUTHWARD WITH EACH MODEL RUN. THEREFORE...COULD SEE LESS AREAL
COVERAGE IN NEXT FORECASTS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL
CURVE AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHWEST IDAHO FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A TROUGH TO THE NORTH KICKS
IT OUT OF THE AREA...DRYING OUT THE REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE MID 70S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR. INCREASED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AS EARLY AS
WED/15Z. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE GENERALLY 12 KTS OF LESS. GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY THROUGH WED/03Z. WINDS ALOFT
UP TO 10K FT MSL...SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....AB
AVIATION.....AB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 031614
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1014 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE TODAY WITH A SURFACE THERMAL
TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON. CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING ALOFT WILL
BRING ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF SURFACE WARMING FROM YESTERDAY. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL DRIVE AN EASTERLY WIND THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER
HELPING TO FURTHER WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN.
NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR. INCREASED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE GENERALLY
12 KTS OF LESS. WINDS ALOFT UP TO 10K FT MSL...SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20
KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WAS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. BOTH
FEATURES...THE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH
WILL RESIDE OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 80S TODAY AND MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE NEAR THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN HARNEY COUNTY. THE
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN SE
OREGON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
AND EVOLVE INTO A LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW TOWARDS THE EAST WHICH MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
PROBABLY WILL NOT SPREAD EAST OF THE OREGON/IDAHO BORDER UNTIL
THURSDAY. A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP IN A
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A BIT
UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY WHICH MEANS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR AS WELL. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PULL WELL TO THE EAST OF OREGON ON
SUNDAY AND SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM IDAHO ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER RETURNING TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 031614
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1014 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE TODAY WITH A SURFACE THERMAL
TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON. CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING ALOFT WILL
BRING ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF SURFACE WARMING FROM YESTERDAY. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL DRIVE AN EASTERLY WIND THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER
HELPING TO FURTHER WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN.
NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR. INCREASED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE GENERALLY
12 KTS OF LESS. WINDS ALOFT UP TO 10K FT MSL...SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20
KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WAS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. BOTH
FEATURES...THE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH
WILL RESIDE OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 80S TODAY AND MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE NEAR THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN HARNEY COUNTY. THE
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN SE
OREGON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
AND EVOLVE INTO A LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW TOWARDS THE EAST WHICH MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
PROBABLY WILL NOT SPREAD EAST OF THE OREGON/IDAHO BORDER UNTIL
THURSDAY. A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP IN A
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A BIT
UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY WHICH MEANS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR AS WELL. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PULL WELL TO THE EAST OF OREGON ON
SUNDAY AND SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM IDAHO ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER RETURNING TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 030923
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
323 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WAS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. BOTH
FEATURES...THE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH
WILL RESIDE OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 80S TODAY AND MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE NEAR THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN HARNEY COUNTY. THE
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN SE
OREGON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
AND EVOLVE INTO A LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW TOWARDS THE EAST WHICH MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
PROBABLY WILL NOT SPREAD EAST OF THE OREGON/IDAHO BORDER UNTIL
THURSDAY. A BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP IN A
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A BIT
UNSTABLE IN THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY WHICH MEANS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR AS WELL. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PULL WELL TO THE EAST OF OREGON ON
SUNDAY AND SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM IDAHO ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER RETURNING TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVER IDAHO TODAY. SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
INTO EASTERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE NOON AND GENERALLY FROM A EASTERLY OR
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION.....JB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 030227
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
827 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHWEST HARNEY COUNTY IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. THIS WILL LEAVE THE ENTIRE CWA DRY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST IS REFLECTIVE OF THIS TREND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AS WELL. NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST
10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 10-20 KNOTS THROUGH
10K FEET MSL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A
STRONG TROUGH OFF THE COAST WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THIS TROUGH TO MOVE IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER
FORECAST FOR TUE THROUGH WED. HEIGHTS START FALLING THIS EVENING
AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST.
OUR AREA TRANSITIONS FROM EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH THE NEW SLOWER MOTION OF THE TROUGH...THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE CONFINED
ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE OREGON SIDE OF THE BORDER. BY WED
AFTERNOON...THAT CHANCE EXTENDS INTO MUCH OF OUR SW IDAHO
SIDE...BUT WE LOWERED POPS JUST ENOUGH IN THE UPPER TREASURE AND
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS TO REMOVE THE MENTION THERE. TEMPS WERE
INCREASED...BOTH MINS AND MAXES...FOR THE SHORT TERM IN LIGHT OF
THE SLOWER MOTION AND THEREFORE ADDITIONAL WARM AIR...AND
MOISTURE...ADVECTION THAT WILL HAVE TIME TO OCCUR. THE LATEST MAV
GUIDANCE FOR BOISE WAS 86 FOR WED...AND ALTHOUGH THIS SEEMS A
LITTLE HIGH...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SHOULD THE SLOWING
TREND CONTINUE. SE WINDS IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WILL INHIBIT
OVERNIGHT COOLING...LEADING TO MINS WED MORNING FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S THERE. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH THE WARM MOIST
AIR...LEADING TO A CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ONE SMALL CHANGE
WAS MADE FOR THIS EVENING...THAT BEING THE ADDITION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SRN AND WRN HARNEY
COUNTY. SATELLITE HAS SHOWN CONVECTIVE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
SPLIT...WITH THE NORTHERN SECTION CONTINUING TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE THE SOUTHERN SECTION DIGS SOUTH
AND DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW. CAN EXPECT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE CUT OFF LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH WILL SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON BUT MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS
THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST WILL SEE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY BUT MAY STILL SEE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA/DD





000
FXUS65 KBOI 022046
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
246 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A
STRONG TROUGH OFF THE COAST WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THIS TROUGH TO MOVE IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER
FORECAST FOR TUE THROUGH WED. HEIGHTS START FALLING THIS EVENING
AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST.
OUR AREA TRANSITIONS FROM EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH THE NEW SLOWER MOTION OF THE TROUGH...THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE CONFINED
ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE OREGON SIDE OF THE BORDER. BY WED
AFTERNOON...THAT CHANCE EXTENDS INTO MUCH OF OUR SW IDAHO
SIDE...BUT WE LOWERED POPS JUST ENOUGH IN THE UPPER TREASURE AND
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS TO REMOVE THE MENTION THERE. TEMPS WERE
INCREASED...BOTH MINS AND MAXES...FOR THE SHORT TERM IN LIGHT OF
THE SLOWER MOTION AND THEREFORE ADDITIONAL WARM AIR...AND
MOISTURE...ADVECTION THAT WILL HAVE TIME TO OCCUR. THE LATEST MAV
GUIDANCE FOR BOISE WAS 86 FOR WED...AND ALTHOUGH THIS SEEMS A
LITTLE HIGH...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SHOULD THE SLOWING
TREND CONTINUE. SE WINDS IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WILL INHIBIT
OVERNIGHT COOLING...LEADING TO MINS WED MORNING FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S THERE. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH THE WARM MOIST
AIR...LEADING TO A CONTINUED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ONE SMALL CHANGE
WAS MADE FOR THIS EVENING...THAT BEING THE ADDITION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SRN AND WRN HARNEY
COUNTY. SATELLITE HAS SHOWN CONVECTIVE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
SPLIT...WITH THE NORTHERN SECTION CONTINUING TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE THE SOUTHERN SECTION DIGS SOUTH
AND DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW. CAN EXPECT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE CUT OFF LOW
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH WILL SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHEAST OREGON BUT MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS
THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST WILL SEE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY BUT MAY STILL SEE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SOUTH AND WEST OF A KRDM-KREO LINE UNTIL 04Z
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS EVENING...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET. SURFACE
WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS ALOFT
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JA/DD
AVIATION.....JA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 021541
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
941 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS MORNING...APART FROM A FEW
DISSIPATING MID-CLOUDS IN NW BAKER COUNTY...AND A FEW MORE IN
EXTREME SRN HARNEY COUNTY. WE EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE AREA. NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE
10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS MORNING...BECOMING EASTERLY 10-20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT SOUTHEASTERLY 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-6 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AND
ANOTHER 3-6 DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL AID IN THE WARMING ACROSS THE TREASURE
VALLEY WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE
LOWER 80S. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SE OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF SW
IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH ITS AXIS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS
ALONG THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND WITH
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH CLOSING OFF INTO A LARGE UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER NEVADA BY FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS REACHING CENTRAL OREGON ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EAST BUT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF THE IDAHO/OREGON BORDER ON
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY..THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA WILL BE IMPORTANT TO WATCH
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...AS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK COULD BRING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF ARE ALREADY HINTING THAT SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL BE
UNDER A DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 021344 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
744 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-6 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AND
ANOTHER 3-6 DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL AID IN THE WARMING ACROSS THE TREASURE
VALLEY WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE
LOWER 80S. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SE OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF SW
IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH ITS AXIS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS
ALONG THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND WITH
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH CLOSING OFF INTO A LARGE UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER NEVADA BY FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS REACHING CENTRAL OREGON ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EAST BUT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF THE IDAHO/OREGON BORDER ON
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY..THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA WILL BE IMPORTANT TO WATCH
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...AS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK COULD BRING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF ARE ALREADY HINTING THAT SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL BE
UNDER A DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOWS ON THE BRUNEAU AND JARBIDGE RIVERS IN OWYHEE
COUNTY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS AND
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWPACK STILL EXISTS IN THE JARBIDGE
RIVER WATERSHED. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LATE THIS WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NEVADA COULD
BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA. RIVERS AND CREEKS IN OWYHEE COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS THEY RESPOND TO THE INCREASED RUNOFF FROM THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION.....JB
HYDROLOGY...BW





000
FXUS65 KBOI 020917
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
317 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-6 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AND
ANOTHER 3-6 DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL AID IN THE WARMING ACROSS THE TREASURE
VALLEY WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE
LOWER 80S. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SE OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF SW
IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH ITS AXIS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS
ALONG THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND WITH
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH CLOSING OFF INTO A LARGE UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER NEVADA BY FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS REACHING CENTRAL OREGON ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EAST BUT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF THE IDAHO/OREGON BORDER ON
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY AND SATURDAY..THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA WILL BE IMPORTANT TO WATCH
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...AS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK COULD BRING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF ARE ALREADY HINTING THAT SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL BE
UNDER A DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOWS ON THE BRUNEAU AND JARBIDGE RIVERS IN OWYHEE
COUNTY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS AND
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWPACK STILL EXISTS IN THE JARBIDGE
RIVER WATERSHED. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LATE THIS WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NEVADA COULD
BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA. RIVERS AND CREEKS IN OWYHEE COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS THEY RESPOND TO THE INCREASED RUNOFF FROM THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION.....JB
HYDROLOGY...BW





000
FXUS65 KBOI 020917
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
317 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-6 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AND
ANOTHER 3-6 DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL AID IN THE WARMING ACROSS THE TREASURE
VALLEY WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE
LOWER 80S. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SE OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF SW
IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH ITS AXIS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS
ALONG THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND WITH
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH CLOSING OFF INTO A LARGE UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER NEVADA BY FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS REACHING CENTRAL OREGON ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EAST BUT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF THE IDAHO/OREGON BORDER ON
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY AND SATURDAY..THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA WILL BE IMPORTANT TO WATCH
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...AS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK COULD BRING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF ARE ALREADY HINTING THAT SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL BE
UNDER A DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOWS ON THE BRUNEAU AND JARBIDGE RIVERS IN OWYHEE
COUNTY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS AND
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWPACK STILL EXISTS IN THE JARBIDGE
RIVER WATERSHED. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LATE THIS WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NEVADA COULD
BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA. RIVERS AND CREEKS IN OWYHEE COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS THEY RESPOND TO THE INCREASED RUNOFF FROM THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION.....JB
HYDROLOGY...BW





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