Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KBOI 300309
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
909 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING OVER SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE SURFACE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN OREGON AND IS
STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO SW IDAHO AROUND 06Z THIS EVENING
AND S-CENTRAL IDAHO BY 12Z...THOUGH IT WILL LOSE ITS DEFINITION
/LESS OF A NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT/ AS IT CROSSES INTO SW IDAHO DUE
TO THE OVERNIGHT TIMING. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY AN PASSING UPPER JET. STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 30 TO
40 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH ACTIVITY IN THE VALLEYS
THROUGH 06Z...TRANSITIONING TO THE W-CENTRAL MTNS BY 06Z. AND WITH
THE LARGER FIRES WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA DO EXPECT THE NW
WINDS TO REMOVE MOST OF THE SMOKE BY TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...SMOKE LAYERS ACROSS REGION FROM FIRES IN NORTHERN
CA. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN BNO WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BROKEN MID-HIGH CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 09Z. WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT LATE THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO
WESTERLY 15-25KT IN MAGIC VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K
FEET MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWING A THICK LAYER OF SMOKE ACROSS
HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES MOVING NORTHEAST INTO BAKER COUNTY.
SMOKE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT AT 20Z WAS OVER CENTRAL OREGON...JUST WEST
OF LAKE VIEW AND EAST OF BEND SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH BURNS/BAKER CITY AROUND 02Z THAN BOISE AROUND
05Z AND TWIN FALLS/JEROME AROUND 11Z. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NEVADA/IDAHO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
NORTHEAST. SMOKE WILL LIKELY DELAY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SE OREGON TO LATER THIS AFTERNOON /AROUND 5PM PDT/ WHEN
THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE TREASURE VALLEY WILL REMAIN
CAPPED UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING /AROUND 9PM/ A FEW HOURS BEFORE
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE VALLEY
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY
/ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET/ AND MARGINAL 0-6 KM SHEAR /20 KTS/
SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH REACH THE FORECAST AREA. AN EARLY FALL LIKE DAY FOR
SATURDAY WITH 10-20 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEY. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT
ON LABOR DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH AS IT DIVES SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ALONG
THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN KEEPING OUR AREA CLOSE TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LINGER TO OUR NORTH AND WEST KEEPING A PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER OUR REGION. AFTERNOON HEATING AND FORCED MOUNTAIN LIFT
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE FOR THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....BW/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 300309
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
909 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING OVER SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE SURFACE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN OREGON AND IS
STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO SW IDAHO AROUND 06Z THIS EVENING
AND S-CENTRAL IDAHO BY 12Z...THOUGH IT WILL LOSE ITS DEFINITION
/LESS OF A NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT/ AS IT CROSSES INTO SW IDAHO DUE
TO THE OVERNIGHT TIMING. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY AN PASSING UPPER JET. STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 30 TO
40 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH ACTIVITY IN THE VALLEYS
THROUGH 06Z...TRANSITIONING TO THE W-CENTRAL MTNS BY 06Z. AND WITH
THE LARGER FIRES WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA DO EXPECT THE NW
WINDS TO REMOVE MOST OF THE SMOKE BY TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...SMOKE LAYERS ACROSS REGION FROM FIRES IN NORTHERN
CA. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN BNO WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BROKEN MID-HIGH CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 09Z. WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT LATE THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO
WESTERLY 15-25KT IN MAGIC VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K
FEET MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWING A THICK LAYER OF SMOKE ACROSS
HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES MOVING NORTHEAST INTO BAKER COUNTY.
SMOKE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT AT 20Z WAS OVER CENTRAL OREGON...JUST WEST
OF LAKE VIEW AND EAST OF BEND SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH BURNS/BAKER CITY AROUND 02Z THAN BOISE AROUND
05Z AND TWIN FALLS/JEROME AROUND 11Z. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NEVADA/IDAHO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
NORTHEAST. SMOKE WILL LIKELY DELAY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SE OREGON TO LATER THIS AFTERNOON /AROUND 5PM PDT/ WHEN
THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE TREASURE VALLEY WILL REMAIN
CAPPED UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING /AROUND 9PM/ A FEW HOURS BEFORE
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE VALLEY
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY
/ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET/ AND MARGINAL 0-6 KM SHEAR /20 KTS/
SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH REACH THE FORECAST AREA. AN EARLY FALL LIKE DAY FOR
SATURDAY WITH 10-20 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEY. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT
ON LABOR DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH AS IT DIVES SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ALONG
THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN KEEPING OUR AREA CLOSE TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LINGER TO OUR NORTH AND WEST KEEPING A PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER OUR REGION. AFTERNOON HEATING AND FORCED MOUNTAIN LIFT
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE FOR THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....BW/AB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 292102
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
302 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWING A THICK LAYER OF SMOKE ACROSS
HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES MOVING NORTHEAST INTO BAKER COUNTY.
SMOKE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT AT 20Z WAS OVER CENTRAL OREGON...JUST WEST
OF LAKE VIEW AND EAST OF BEND SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH BURNS/BAKER CITY AROUND 02Z THAN BOISE AROUND
05Z AND TWIN FALLS/JEROME AROUND 11Z. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NEVADA/IDAHO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
NORTHEAST. SMOKE WILL LIKELY DELAY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SE OREGON TO LATER THIS AFTERNOON /AROUND 5PM PDT/ WHEN
THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE TREASURE VALLEY WILL REMAIN
CAPPED UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING /AROUND 9PM/ A FEW HOURS BEFORE
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE VALLEY
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY
/ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET/ AND MARGINAL 0-6 KM SHEAR /20 KTS/
SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH REACH THE FORECAST AREA. AN EARLY FALL LIKE DAY FOR
SATURDAY WITH 10-20 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEY. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT
ON LABOR DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH AS IT DIVES SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ALONG
THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN KEEPING OUR AREA CLOSE TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LINGER TO OUR NORTH AND WEST KEEPING A PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER OUR REGION. AFTERNOON HEATING AND FORCED MOUNTAIN LIFT
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE FOR THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. W-SW SURFACE WINDS 5-15 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS
ALOFT...W-SW 15-25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
W-NW SURFACE WINDS TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....BW/AB
AVIATION.....BW




000
FXUS65 KBOI 292102
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
302 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWING A THICK LAYER OF SMOKE ACROSS
HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES MOVING NORTHEAST INTO BAKER COUNTY.
SMOKE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT AT 20Z WAS OVER CENTRAL OREGON...JUST WEST
OF LAKE VIEW AND EAST OF BEND SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH BURNS/BAKER CITY AROUND 02Z THAN BOISE AROUND
05Z AND TWIN FALLS/JEROME AROUND 11Z. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NEVADA/IDAHO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
NORTHEAST. SMOKE WILL LIKELY DELAY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SE OREGON TO LATER THIS AFTERNOON /AROUND 5PM PDT/ WHEN
THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE TREASURE VALLEY WILL REMAIN
CAPPED UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING /AROUND 9PM/ A FEW HOURS BEFORE
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE VALLEY
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY
/ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET/ AND MARGINAL 0-6 KM SHEAR /20 KTS/
SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH REACH THE FORECAST AREA. AN EARLY FALL LIKE DAY FOR
SATURDAY WITH 10-20 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEY. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT
ON LABOR DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH AS IT DIVES SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ALONG
THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN KEEPING OUR AREA CLOSE TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LINGER TO OUR NORTH AND WEST KEEPING A PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER OUR REGION. AFTERNOON HEATING AND FORCED MOUNTAIN LIFT
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE FOR THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. W-SW SURFACE WINDS 5-15 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS
ALOFT...W-SW 15-25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
W-NW SURFACE WINDS TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....BW/AB
AVIATION.....BW





000
FXUS65 KBOI 291544
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
944 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
HOW FAR WEST AND HOW EARLY CONVECTION INITIATES WILL DEPEND
GREATLY ON THE SMOKE LAYER WHICH IS ACROSS MUCH OF SE OREGON AND
SW IDAHO THIS MORNING. 12Z BOI SOUNDING SHOWED AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE /PW OF 0.74 INCHES/ FROM YESTERDAYS SHORTWAVE.
ALSO...EVIDENT ON THE SOUNDING IS A STABLE LAYER AROUND 500 MB
WHICH MAY PROVE DIFFICULT TO BREAK UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. THICK SMOKE PLUME FROM FIRES IN W/SW OREGON IS EVIDENT
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...BASICALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-ONTARIO-LOWMAN
LINE WITH MORE SMOKE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING POTENTIAL TODAY AND THUS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF THAT FROM YESTERDAY AS CU FAILED
TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SW IDAHO WHERE THE SMOKE PLUME WAS
LOCATED. THUS...THINK CONVECTION WILL INITIATE LATER THAN NORMAL
ACROSS THE AREA PROBABLY JUST A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OR TO AREAS OUTSIDE THE SMOKE PLUME. THE FRONTAL TIMING
REMAINS ALMOST UNCHANGED REACHING BAKER CITY/BURNS AROUND
02Z...BOISE AROUND 06Z AND TWIN FALLS/JEROME AROUND 11Z.
IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LATER THIS EVENING...AFTER 9 PM TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UPDATED POP/WX FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. MOSTLY CLEAR THEN INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AFTER 18Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS...EXCEPT GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE FROM
THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE`S SW TO 40N 140W IS WITH A COLD FRONT DUE IN
TONIGHT. FRONT IS NEARING NW WA AT 3 AM. SCATTERED TO THIN BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE WILL EXPAND OVER THE
AREA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE WAS NEAR THE NV BORDER AND
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. PREFRONTAL LIFT
AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA /BOISE
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND TWIN FALLS BY 6 AM/ THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND CALIBRATED SPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTED
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS /WHICH WERE ADDED/ SO THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS PACKAGE. COOLER AND LOCALLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY....NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN
WEST COAST.  THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  AXIS
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES COOLING TO AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 291544
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
944 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
HOW FAR WEST AND HOW EARLY CONVECTION INITIATES WILL DEPEND
GREATLY ON THE SMOKE LAYER WHICH IS ACROSS MUCH OF SE OREGON AND
SW IDAHO THIS MORNING. 12Z BOI SOUNDING SHOWED AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE /PW OF 0.74 INCHES/ FROM YESTERDAYS SHORTWAVE.
ALSO...EVIDENT ON THE SOUNDING IS A STABLE LAYER AROUND 500 MB
WHICH MAY PROVE DIFFICULT TO BREAK UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. THICK SMOKE PLUME FROM FIRES IN W/SW OREGON IS EVIDENT
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...BASICALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-ONTARIO-LOWMAN
LINE WITH MORE SMOKE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING POTENTIAL TODAY AND THUS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF THAT FROM YESTERDAY AS CU FAILED
TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SW IDAHO WHERE THE SMOKE PLUME WAS
LOCATED. THUS...THINK CONVECTION WILL INITIATE LATER THAN NORMAL
ACROSS THE AREA PROBABLY JUST A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OR TO AREAS OUTSIDE THE SMOKE PLUME. THE FRONTAL TIMING
REMAINS ALMOST UNCHANGED REACHING BAKER CITY/BURNS AROUND
02Z...BOISE AROUND 06Z AND TWIN FALLS/JEROME AROUND 11Z.
IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LATER THIS EVENING...AFTER 9 PM TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UPDATED POP/WX FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. MOSTLY CLEAR THEN INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AFTER 18Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS...EXCEPT GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE FROM
THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE`S SW TO 40N 140W IS WITH A COLD FRONT DUE IN
TONIGHT. FRONT IS NEARING NW WA AT 3 AM. SCATTERED TO THIN BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE WILL EXPAND OVER THE
AREA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE WAS NEAR THE NV BORDER AND
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. PREFRONTAL LIFT
AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA /BOISE
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND TWIN FALLS BY 6 AM/ THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND CALIBRATED SPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTED
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS /WHICH WERE ADDED/ SO THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS PACKAGE. COOLER AND LOCALLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY....NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN
WEST COAST.  THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  AXIS
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES COOLING TO AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 290933
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
333 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE FROM
THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE`S SW TO 40N 140W IS WITH A COLD FRONT DUE IN
TONIGHT. FRONT IS NEARING NW WA AT 3 AM. SCATTERED TO THIN BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE WILL EXPAND OVER THE
AREA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE WAS NEAR THE NV BORDER AND
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. PREFRONTAL LIFT
AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA /BOISE
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND TWIN FALLS BY 6 AM/ THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND CALIBRATED SPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTED
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS /WHICH WERE ADDED/ SO THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS PACKAGE. COOLER AND LOCALLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY....NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN
WEST COAST.  THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  AXIS
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES COOLING TO AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO FROM WILDFIRES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST OREGON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 21Z.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET
MSL.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL AREAS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 290933
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
333 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE FROM
THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE`S SW TO 40N 140W IS WITH A COLD FRONT DUE IN
TONIGHT. FRONT IS NEARING NW WA AT 3 AM. SCATTERED TO THIN BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE WILL EXPAND OVER THE
AREA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE WAS NEAR THE NV BORDER AND
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. PREFRONTAL LIFT
AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA /BOISE
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND TWIN FALLS BY 6 AM/ THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND CALIBRATED SPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTED
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS /WHICH WERE ADDED/ SO THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS PACKAGE. COOLER AND LOCALLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY....NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN
WEST COAST.  THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  AXIS
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES COOLING TO AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO FROM WILDFIRES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST OREGON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 21Z.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET
MSL.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ALL AREAS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 290215
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
815 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER IN MALHEUR AND SOUTHWEST OWYHEE COUNTIES.
THESE ARE FORMING IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS NRN CA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THERE IS INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
MAINTAIN CONVECTION WITHOUT THE THERMAL COMPONENT. NO CHANGES
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT FROM
NORTHERN CA AND SW OREGON FIRES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE
WINDS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAKDOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING CU DEVELOPING
ACROSS SE OREGON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE...OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AT 20Z...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
NEVADA BORDER THIS EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES DRY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH SUNSET. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE...NEAR SEATTLE AT 20Z...WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND INTO NORTHERN IDAHO LATE THIS EVENING FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. SATELLITE ALSO
SHOWING A THICK SMOKE LAYER MOVING OVER THE SW IDAHO VALLEYS AT
20Z. THIS SMOKE LAYER COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE 90 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. COLD FRONT REACHES BURNS AND BAKER AROUND
03Z SATURDAY /FRIDAY NIGHT/ AND THEN BOISE AROUND 06Z /MIDNIGHT/.
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD THE FRONT ACROSS SW IDAHO. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE NEVADA/IDAHO BORDER AROUND
00Z AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS BY 03Z. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
MARGINAL SO STORMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. LOOKING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY BETWEEN 03Z /9PM/ AND 06Z
/MIDNIGHT/ FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ENDING EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP FROM 90S IN
THE VALLEY ON FRIDAY TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
/EXCEPT GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY/. THE FLOW
WILL FLATTEN AND THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING IN WESTERN CANADA. THIS CHANGE
IN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....BW




000
FXUS65 KBOI 290215
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
815 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER IN MALHEUR AND SOUTHWEST OWYHEE COUNTIES.
THESE ARE FORMING IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS NRN CA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THERE IS INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
MAINTAIN CONVECTION WITHOUT THE THERMAL COMPONENT. NO CHANGES
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT FROM
NORTHERN CA AND SW OREGON FIRES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE
WINDS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAKDOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING CU DEVELOPING
ACROSS SE OREGON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE...OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AT 20Z...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
NEVADA BORDER THIS EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES DRY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH SUNSET. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE...NEAR SEATTLE AT 20Z...WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND INTO NORTHERN IDAHO LATE THIS EVENING FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. SATELLITE ALSO
SHOWING A THICK SMOKE LAYER MOVING OVER THE SW IDAHO VALLEYS AT
20Z. THIS SMOKE LAYER COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE 90 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. COLD FRONT REACHES BURNS AND BAKER AROUND
03Z SATURDAY /FRIDAY NIGHT/ AND THEN BOISE AROUND 06Z /MIDNIGHT/.
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD THE FRONT ACROSS SW IDAHO. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE NEVADA/IDAHO BORDER AROUND
00Z AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS BY 03Z. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
MARGINAL SO STORMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. LOOKING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY BETWEEN 03Z /9PM/ AND 06Z
/MIDNIGHT/ FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ENDING EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP FROM 90S IN
THE VALLEY ON FRIDAY TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
/EXCEPT GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY/. THE FLOW
WILL FLATTEN AND THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING IN WESTERN CANADA. THIS CHANGE
IN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....BW





000
FXUS65 KBOI 282055
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
255 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAKDOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING CU DEVELOPING
ACROSS SE OREGON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE...OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AT 20Z...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
NEVADA BORDER THIS EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES DRY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH SUNSET. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE...NEAR SEATTLE AT 20Z...WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND INTO NORTHERN IDAHO LATE THIS EVENING FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. SATELLITE ALSO
SHOWING A THICK SMOKE LAYER MOVING OVER THE SW IDAHO VALLEYS AT
20Z. THIS SMOKE LAYER COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE 90 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. COLD FRONT REACHES BURNS AND BAKER AROUND
03Z SATURDAY /FRIDAY NIGHT/ AND THEN BOISE AROUND 06Z /MIDNIGHT/.
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD THE FRONT ACROSS SW IDAHO. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE NEVADA/IDAHO BORDER AROUND
00Z AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS BY 03Z. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
MARGINAL SO STORMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. LOOKING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY BETWEEN 03Z /9PM/ AND 06Z
/MIDNIGHT/ FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURAY MORNING ENDING EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP FROM 90S IN THE VALLEY
ON FRIDAY TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
/EXCEPT GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY/. THE FLOW
WILL FLATTEN AND THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING IN WESTERN CANADA. THIS CHANGE
IN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. PATCHY MVFR SMOKE IS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS
NORTH OF A KBKE-KMYL LINE UNTIL 06Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS IN SOUTHERN HARNEY COUNTY /NOT INCLUDING
KBNO/ AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY UNTIL 03Z. SURFACE WINDS...
WESTERLY 5-15 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 06Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...WESTERLY 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW





000
FXUS65 KBOI 282055
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
255 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAKDOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING CU DEVELOPING
ACROSS SE OREGON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE...OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AT 20Z...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN
NEVADA BORDER THIS EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES DRY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH SUNSET. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE...NEAR SEATTLE AT 20Z...WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND INTO NORTHERN IDAHO LATE THIS EVENING FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. SATELLITE ALSO
SHOWING A THICK SMOKE LAYER MOVING OVER THE SW IDAHO VALLEYS AT
20Z. THIS SMOKE LAYER COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE 90 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. COLD FRONT REACHES BURNS AND BAKER AROUND
03Z SATURDAY /FRIDAY NIGHT/ AND THEN BOISE AROUND 06Z /MIDNIGHT/.
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD THE FRONT ACROSS SW IDAHO. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE NEVADA/IDAHO BORDER AROUND
00Z AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS BY 03Z. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
MARGINAL SO STORMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. LOOKING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY BETWEEN 03Z /9PM/ AND 06Z
/MIDNIGHT/ FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURAY MORNING ENDING EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP FROM 90S IN THE VALLEY
ON FRIDAY TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
/EXCEPT GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY/. THE FLOW
WILL FLATTEN AND THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING IN WESTERN CANADA. THIS CHANGE
IN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. PATCHY MVFR SMOKE IS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS
NORTH OF A KBKE-KMYL LINE UNTIL 06Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS IN SOUTHERN HARNEY COUNTY /NOT INCLUDING
KBNO/ AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY UNTIL 03Z. SURFACE WINDS...
WESTERLY 5-15 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 06Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...WESTERLY 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW




000
FXUS65 KBOI 281601
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1001 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL FEATURES OF NOTE WILL MAKE FOR A
CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON
COAST ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN TROPICAL MOISTURE. BOTH ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND REACH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS A THICK SMOKE LAYER FROM
FIRES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS SE OREGON THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE EAST INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SMOKE LAYER LOOKS TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AT LEAST KEEPING THEM A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. AS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF AREA...BUT COULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS IS
ALREADY COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH HAS
PLENTY OF HIGH-BASED MOISTURE AND COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH ALONG
WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE OREGON/NEVADA BORDER. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN SE OREGON AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN
SW IDAHO. WILL ADDRESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE
COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL DRIFT E-NE INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO. PATCHY MVFR
SMOKE IS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 30
KNOTS IN SOUTHERN HARNEY COUNTY /NOT INCLUDING KBNO/ AND SOUTHERN
MALHEUR COUNTY AFTER 21Z. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY 5-15
KNOTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOOK FOR VERY WARM AND MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY. MOST OF THE DAY...SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
WILL BE AHEAD OF A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TODAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF A BAKER
CITY TO MCCALL LINE THIS EVENING...AND A MODERATE BREEZE AND
SLIGHT COOLING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...PEAKING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
IDAHO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL BRING A COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
ON SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS EASTERN
OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
FRIDAY/S HIGHS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARMER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 281601
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1001 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL FEATURES OF NOTE WILL MAKE FOR A
CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON
COAST ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN TROPICAL MOISTURE. BOTH ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND REACH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS A THICK SMOKE LAYER FROM
FIRES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS SE OREGON THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE EAST INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SMOKE LAYER LOOKS TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AT LEAST KEEPING THEM A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. AS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF AREA...BUT COULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS IS
ALREADY COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH HAS
PLENTY OF HIGH-BASED MOISTURE AND COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH ALONG
WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE OREGON/NEVADA BORDER. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN SE OREGON AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN
SW IDAHO. WILL ADDRESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE
COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL DRIFT E-NE INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO. PATCHY MVFR
SMOKE IS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 30
KNOTS IN SOUTHERN HARNEY COUNTY /NOT INCLUDING KBNO/ AND SOUTHERN
MALHEUR COUNTY AFTER 21Z. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY 5-15
KNOTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOOK FOR VERY WARM AND MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY. MOST OF THE DAY...SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
WILL BE AHEAD OF A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TODAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF A BAKER
CITY TO MCCALL LINE THIS EVENING...AND A MODERATE BREEZE AND
SLIGHT COOLING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...PEAKING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
IDAHO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL BRING A COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
ON SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS EASTERN
OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
FRIDAY/S HIGHS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARMER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT





000
FXUS65 KBOI 280849
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
249 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOOK FOR VERY WARM AND MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY. MOST OF THE DAY...SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
WILL BE AHEAD OF A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TODAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF A BAKER
CITY TO MCCALL LINE THIS EVENING...AND A MODERATE BREEZE AND
SLIGHT COOLING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...PEAKING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
IDAHO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL BRING A COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
ON SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS EASTERN
OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
FRIDAY/S HIGHS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARMER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS...WEST TO
NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT
MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 280849
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
249 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOOK FOR VERY WARM AND MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY. MOST OF THE DAY...SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
WILL BE AHEAD OF A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TODAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF A BAKER
CITY TO MCCALL LINE THIS EVENING...AND A MODERATE BREEZE AND
SLIGHT COOLING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...PEAKING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
IDAHO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL BRING A COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
ON SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS EASTERN
OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
FRIDAY/S HIGHS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARMER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS...WEST TO
NORTHWEST 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT
MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT





000
FXUS65 KBOI 280256
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
856 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
THE 18Z GFS AND 00Z NAM SOLUTIONS BOTH SHOWING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ID MTNS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN NV BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A FAST MOVING...LOW-
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. CAPE AND LI INDICES ARE MARGINAL AND
BEST MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS STAY ACROSS NORTHERN ID SO SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES ARE SLIGHT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
NO UPDATES FOR TONIGHT/S FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT
AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW 90S THURSDAY IN THE
VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WASHINGTON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN IDAHO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MOSTLY
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MAINLY NORTH OF A BAKER CITY-MCCALL LINE. FOR
FRIDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT REACHES BURNS/BAKER CITY AROUND 00Z SATURDAY AND BOISE
AROUND 06Z SATURDAY /MIDNIGHT FRIDAY/. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
INITIALLY DRY UNTIL IT REACHES SW IDAHO AND INTERACTS WITH A
DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC STORMS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC MOVING ACROSS NEVADA. THIS SHOULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY. VALLEY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F WITH MOUNTAIN HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY AND LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB BACK
TOWARD NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A NEW TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....BW/AB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 280256
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
856 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
THE 18Z GFS AND 00Z NAM SOLUTIONS BOTH SHOWING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ID MTNS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN NV BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A FAST MOVING...LOW-
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. CAPE AND LI INDICES ARE MARGINAL AND
BEST MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS STAY ACROSS NORTHERN ID SO SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES ARE SLIGHT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
NO UPDATES FOR TONIGHT/S FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT
AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW 90S THURSDAY IN THE
VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WASHINGTON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN IDAHO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MOSTLY
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MAINLY NORTH OF A BAKER CITY-MCCALL LINE. FOR
FRIDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT REACHES BURNS/BAKER CITY AROUND 00Z SATURDAY AND BOISE
AROUND 06Z SATURDAY /MIDNIGHT FRIDAY/. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
INITIALLY DRY UNTIL IT REACHES SW IDAHO AND INTERACTS WITH A
DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC STORMS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC MOVING ACROSS NEVADA. THIS SHOULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY. VALLEY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F WITH MOUNTAIN HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY AND LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB BACK
TOWARD NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A NEW TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....BW/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 272051
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW 90S THURSDAY IN THE
VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WASHINGTON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN IDAHO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MOSTLY
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MAINLY NORTH OF A BAKER CITY-MCCALL LINE. FOR
FRIDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT REACHES BURNS/BAKER CITY AROUND 00Z SATURDAY AND BOISE
AROUND 06Z SATURDAY /MIDNIGHT FRIDAY/. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
INITIALLY DRY UNTIL IT REACHES SW IDAHO AND INTERACTS WITH A
DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC STORMS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC MOVING ACROSS NEVADA. THIS SHOULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY. VALLEY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F WITH MOUNTAIN HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY AND LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB BACK
TOWARD NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A NEW TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
CUMULUS UNTIL 03Z. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST UP
TO 10 KNOTS AT 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....BW/AB
AVIATION.....BW




000
FXUS65 KBOI 272051
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW 90S THURSDAY IN THE
VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WASHINGTON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN IDAHO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING MOSTLY
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MAINLY NORTH OF A BAKER CITY-MCCALL LINE. FOR
FRIDAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT REACHES BURNS/BAKER CITY AROUND 00Z SATURDAY AND BOISE
AROUND 06Z SATURDAY /MIDNIGHT FRIDAY/. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
INITIALLY DRY UNTIL IT REACHES SW IDAHO AND INTERACTS WITH A
DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC STORMS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC MOVING ACROSS NEVADA. THIS SHOULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH LABOR DAY. VALLEY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F WITH MOUNTAIN HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY AND LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB BACK
TOWARD NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A NEW TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
CUMULUS UNTIL 03Z. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST UP
TO 10 KNOTS AT 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....BW/AB
AVIATION.....BW





000
FXUS65 KBOI 271542
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
942 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TRACK
TODAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. UPPER RIDGE
BRINGS TO BREAKDOWN TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES
WEST TO EAST ACROSS WA/NRN ID THURSDAY EVENING/FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING A THIN LAYER OF MOIST /BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB/ ACROSS
BAKER COUNTY OREGON INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS /MAINLY NORTH
OF MCCALL/. THE MODELS MAY BE HINTING AT MORE CU DEVELOPMENT THAN
ACTUAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BUT WILL PROBABLY NEED
TO ADD SOME LOW POPS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY EAST OF BOI-
MYL LINE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS
RATHER LIMITED GIVEN THE LATE TIMING OF THE FRONT REACHING BOISE
AROUND 06Z SATURDAY AND PRE-FRONTAL INITIATE OF THE CONVECTION.
WILL ADDRESS THESE ISSUES IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. NO UPDATE
NEED FOR TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT
VARIABLE UP TO 10 KNOTS AT 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOOK FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND THURSDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURSDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT FROM BURNS TO
BAKER CITY WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS. RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM MEDFORD OREGON TO LOWELL IDAHO. RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE SE OREGON
AND SW IDAHO THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF AK THIS MORNING WILL MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS NE OREGON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE LATE THURSDAY. LITTLE
EFFECT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHICH LOOK TO REMAIN
DRY...SUNNY AND VERY WARM. BAKER AND MCCALL FORECAST BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MID LAYER CAP WHICH WOULD INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE VERTICAL PROFILES AND LAYER RH DO SHOW
SOME MID/HI ALTITUDE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES SINCE MID JUNE WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LABOR DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLY THE LAST 90 DEGREE
HEAT OF THE SUMMER IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. ON SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO...LOWERING MAX TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES. FOLLOWING
THE FRONT WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOLING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT





000
FXUS65 KBOI 271542
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
942 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TRACK
TODAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. UPPER RIDGE
BRINGS TO BREAKDOWN TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES
WEST TO EAST ACROSS WA/NRN ID THURSDAY EVENING/FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING A THIN LAYER OF MOIST /BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB/ ACROSS
BAKER COUNTY OREGON INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS /MAINLY NORTH
OF MCCALL/. THE MODELS MAY BE HINTING AT MORE CU DEVELOPMENT THAN
ACTUAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BUT WILL PROBABLY NEED
TO ADD SOME LOW POPS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY EAST OF BOI-
MYL LINE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS
RATHER LIMITED GIVEN THE LATE TIMING OF THE FRONT REACHING BOISE
AROUND 06Z SATURDAY AND PRE-FRONTAL INITIATE OF THE CONVECTION.
WILL ADDRESS THESE ISSUES IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. NO UPDATE
NEED FOR TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT
VARIABLE UP TO 10 KNOTS AT 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOOK FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND THURSDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURSDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT FROM BURNS TO
BAKER CITY WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS. RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM MEDFORD OREGON TO LOWELL IDAHO. RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE SE OREGON
AND SW IDAHO THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF AK THIS MORNING WILL MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS NE OREGON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE LATE THURSDAY. LITTLE
EFFECT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHICH LOOK TO REMAIN
DRY...SUNNY AND VERY WARM. BAKER AND MCCALL FORECAST BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MID LAYER CAP WHICH WOULD INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE VERTICAL PROFILES AND LAYER RH DO SHOW
SOME MID/HI ALTITUDE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES SINCE MID JUNE WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LABOR DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLY THE LAST 90 DEGREE
HEAT OF THE SUMMER IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. ON SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO...LOWERING MAX TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES. FOLLOWING
THE FRONT WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOLING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 270926
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
326 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOOK FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND THURSDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURSDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT FROM BURNS TO
BAKER CITY WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS. RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM MEDFORD OREGON TO LOWELL IDAHO. RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE SE OREGON
AND SW IDAHO THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF AK THIS MORNING WILL MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS NE OREGON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE LATE THURSDAY. LITTLE
EFFECT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHICH LOOK TO REMAIN
DRY...SUNNY AND VERY WARM. BAKER AND MCCALL FORECAST BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MID LAYER CAP WHICH WOULD INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE VERTICAL PROFILES AND LAYER RH DO SHOW
SOME MID/HI ALTITUDE MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES SINCE MID JUNE WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LABOR DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLY THE LAST 90 DEGREE
HEAT OF THE SUMMER IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. ON SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO...LOWERING MAX TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES. FOLLOWING
THE FRONT WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOLING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS
ALOFT AT 10K FEET VARIABLE 5-15KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT





000
FXUS65 KBOI 270926
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
326 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOOK FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND THURSDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH THURSDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT FROM BURNS TO
BAKER CITY WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS. RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM MEDFORD OREGON TO LOWELL IDAHO. RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE SE OREGON
AND SW IDAHO THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF AK THIS MORNING WILL MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS NE OREGON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE LATE THURSDAY. LITTLE
EFFECT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHICH LOOK TO REMAIN
DRY...SUNNY AND VERY WARM. BAKER AND MCCALL FORECAST BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MID LAYER CAP WHICH WOULD INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE VERTICAL PROFILES AND LAYER RH DO SHOW
SOME MID/HI ALTITUDE MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES SINCE MID JUNE WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LABOR DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLY THE LAST 90 DEGREE
HEAT OF THE SUMMER IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. ON SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO...LOWERING MAX TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES. FOLLOWING
THE FRONT WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOLING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS
ALOFT AT 10K FEET VARIABLE 5-15KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities