000
FXUS65 KBOI 191549
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
949 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR PICS SHOWING
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PIVOTING AROUND AN UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL OREGON. THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND UPPER-LEVEL
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE OREGON AND MUCH OF SW IDAHO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEING FURTHER FROM THE LOW CENTER...THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND CAMAS PRAIRIE WILL SEE LESS PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH /0.75/ ARE
POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HAVE MADE A
SMALL UPDATE TO EXPAND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW-VFR CEILINGS AROUND MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BE OBSCURED. AFTER 03Z THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIP WILL SHIFT NORTH...ONLY AFFECTING BAKER COUNTY AND THE WEST
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WNW SURFACE WINDS AT 10-20
KTS...DECREASING OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20-25
KTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A NARROW N-S ORIENTED BAND OF
RAINFALL WAS SITUATED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO THIS MORNING
WITH LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING AT THE BOISE AIRPORT. HEAVIER RAINFALL AS
INDICATED BY RADAR WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF BOISE AND ACROSS THE
UPPER WEISER BASIN. MODELS DEPICT THIS BAND OF RAINFALL WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. MEANWHILE...A
DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE WA/OR COAST WAS STILL MOVING INLAND
AND WAS SPREADING SHOWERS INTO OREGON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SHOWERS HAS REACHED HARNEY COUNTY AND WESTERN MALHEUR COUNTY. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE PACNW TODAY WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING INTO THE REMAINDER OF SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO BY
MIDDAY. INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD LOW WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE STORMS...HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY.
THUS...SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS BAKER COUNTY AND THE BOISE/WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 6500 FEET SO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS COULD RECEIVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TODAY THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COOL TODAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
50S AND 60S. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON THURSDAY BUT STILL
10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN FINALLY MOVING EAST SATURDAY. MODELS
SUGGEST MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IDAHO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY
FOR EAST CENTRAL OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS IN
IDAHO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRYING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND UNDER A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS BACK IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
PRIMARILY FOR NORTHERN AREAS WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE WESTERLY FLOW
PROGGED TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY WHICH WOULD BRING DRIER
SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....CB
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....TL

000
FXUS65 KBOI 190931
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A NARROW N-S ORIENTED BAND OF
RAINFALL WAS SITUATED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO THIS MORNING
WITH LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING AT THE BOISE AIRPORT. HEAVIER RAINFALL AS
INDICATED BY RADAR WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF BOISE AND ACROSS THE
UPPER WEISER BASIN. MODELS DEPICT THIS BAND OF RAINFALL WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. MEANWHILE...A
DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE WA/OR COAST WAS STILL MOVING INLAND
AND WAS SPREADING SHOWERS INTO OREGON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SHOWERS HAS REACHED HARNEY COUNTY AND WESTERN MALHEUR COUNTY. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE PACNW TODAY WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING INTO THE REMAINDER OF SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO BY
MIDDAY. INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD LOW WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE STORMS...HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY.
THUS...SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS BAKER COUNTY AND THE BOISE/WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 6500 FEET SO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS COULD RECEIVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TODAY THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COOL TODAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
50S AND 60S. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON THURSDAY BUT STILL
10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN FINALLY MOVING EAST SATURDAY. MODELS
SUGGEST MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IDAHO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY
FOR EAST CENTRAL OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS IN
IDAHO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRYING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND UNDER A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS BACK IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
PRIMARILY FOR NORTHERN AREAS WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE WESTERLY FLOW
PROGGED TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY WHICH WOULD BRING DRIER
SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...A BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NEAR KMYL THROUGH KBOI
TO THE NEVADA BORDER...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 15Z. A BIT OF A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THIS
BAND AND THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...AND INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO 14-15Z TIMEFRAME. GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS BAKER COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHIFTING MAINLY TO
BAKER COUNTY AND WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20KTS GUSTS TO 30KTS...
MAINLY FROM KBKE TO KJER AND SOUTH...DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY 20-25KTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....TL
AVIATION.....TL

000
FXUS65 KBOI 190238
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
838 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS IN BAKER COUNTY AND NORTHERN MALHEUR
COUNTY PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AROUND 5 PM MDT WHICH MERGED
WITH AND INTENSIFIED A COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
OREGON AND INTO THE TREASURE VALLEY.  THE RESULTING STRONGER COLD
FRONT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST IN THE TREASURE VALLEY.
THE FRONT THEN PRODUCED BRIEF HIGH-WIND CONDITIONS AT MOUNTAIN HOME
SHORTLY BEFORE 8 PM MDT.  AS KCBX RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW A WELL-
DEFINED FRONTAL LINE WE ISSUED A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY VALID UNTIL
MIDNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY...
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY...SOUTHWEST IDAHO HIGHLANDS...AND SOUTHERN
TWIN FALLS COUNTY.  WE EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL HOLD TOGETHER
THAT LONG EVEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORM
SOURCE IN NORTHEAST OREGON.  UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
THIS.  REST OF AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME
EXPECTING A MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN EAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME AT 0230Z WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MAGIC VALLEY BY 03Z WITH BLOWING DUST AND WNW WINDS AT 40G50 KTS.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO REDUCE TO BELOW 2SM AS THE DUST MOVES THROUGH.
THIS WILL BE A BRIEF EVENT WITH EFFECTS LASTING ONLY 20-30 MINUTES.

ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TO MOST OF SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...
WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY AND CHANCE OF TSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WNW SURFACE WINDS AT 10-20 KTS. SW WINDS
ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LOW OFF THE THE PAC NW
COAST MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. AREA OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER SE
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PUSH AN OUTFLOW /RAIN COOLED AIR/
THROUGH SW IDAHO THIS EVENING BRINING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
/POTENIALLY UP TO 30 KTS/. PRECIPTIATION OVERNIGHT WILL FOCUS ALONG
A MID-LEVEL FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN BOISE MTNS INTO THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE WITH A SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION IN SE
OREGON...CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH DEEP CONVECTION THREAT DIMINSHING
BY MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. THE CLOSED LOW
MOVES INTO CENTRAL OREGON ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A MUCH COOLER AIR
MASS TO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW
WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS FAVORING HEAVIER QPF
AMOUNTS. THE LOW LIFTS INTO SE WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT DIMINSHING
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITAION ACROSS ALL BUT THE EAST-CENTRAL OREGON
AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BOISE MTNS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS ON THURSDAY. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 15F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
RECOVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL BRING CHANCE POPS TO NORTHERN ZONES WHILE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL
REMAIN DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY BUT DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.  WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
BUT MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN WHEN CONFIDENCE IN
THE MODELS INCREASES. AFTER SATURDAY THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND IS
QUITE MOIST SO HAVE INTRODUCED LOTS OF CLOUDINESS. THE ENSEMBLES ARE
HINTING AT A FOUR CORNERS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
RAMP UP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTER TUESDAY...STAY TUNED.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....CB
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JA/KA

000
FXUS65 KBOI 182110
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
310 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LOW OFF THE THE PAC
NW COAST MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. AREA OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
OVER SE OREGON THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PUSH AN OUTFLOW /RAIN
COOLED AIR/ THROUGH SW IDAHO THIS EVENING BRINING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY WINDS /POTENIALLY UP TO 30 KTS/. PRECIPTIATION OVERNIGHT
WILL FOCUS ALONG A MID-LEVEL FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN
BOISE MTNS INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WITH A SECOND AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IN SE OREGON...CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER. GIVEN THE
DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT...
WITH DEEP CONVECTION THREAT DIMINSHING BY MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. THE CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL OREGON
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS TO THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW WITH THE GREATER
INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS FAVORING HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS. THE LOW
LIFTS INTO SE WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT DIMINSHING THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITAION ACROSS ALL BUT THE EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BOISE MTNS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS ON THURSDAY. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 15F DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
RECOVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL BRING CHANCE POPS TO NORTHERN ZONES WHILE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL
REMAIN DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY BUT DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.  WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
BUT MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN WHEN CONFIDENCE IN
THE MODELS INCREASES. AFTER SATURDAY THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND IS
QUITE MOIST SO HAVE INTRODUCED LOTS OF CLOUDINESS. THE ENSEMBLES ARE
HINTING AT A FOUR CORNERS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
RAMP UP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTER TUESDAY...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY SE OREGON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER SW
IDAHO.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF KMYL...OTHERWISE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.  SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SE OREGON LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TO SW IDAHO TONIGHT...GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS BAKER COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.  WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS 10-15
KNOTS...LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING.  WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JA/KA
AVIATION.....JA

000
FXUS65 KBOI 181545
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
945 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCH TOWARD TO THE
COAST TODAY. CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL CAP TEMPERATURES
AND MINIMIZE THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AT BEST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WARM DAY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE A NW
WIND AND ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS
COUNTY. THE DRY SURFACE LAYER WOULD FAVOR GUSTY WINDS FROM ANY
DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROAD LIFT WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH LESSER CHANCE OVER THE
BOISE MTNS. FOR STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS NORTH AND EAST OF MCCALL TO WARM LAKE WITH
GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. LOWER VALLEYS REMAIN DRY FOR
TODAY WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON
AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OUTFLOW FROM
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OREGON TODAY COULD
BRING A MORE PRONOUNCED WIND INCREASE THROUGH SOUTHWEST IDAHO
BETWEEN 00Z AND 05Z THIS EVENING. WILL LOWER COVERAGE OF THUNDER
IN SE OREGON BUT OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING CLOUDS SW IDAHO.  MOSTLY CLOUDY SE OREGON
WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS.  SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH AND EAST OF KMYL AND ISOLATED OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN ELSEWHERE.  SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO SE OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO SW IDAHO OVERNIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND BAKER COUNTY.  LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.  WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20
KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BIG CHANGES THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...FROM WARM SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER TODAY TO COOL SHOWERY
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE PACNW COAST WILL
NUDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY BUT WILL HANG JUST OFF THE COAST BEFORE
MAKING MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ENOUGH BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
INCREASES TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS SPREADING INTO ALL OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE ALSO
INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. COOL SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COOLING WILL BE IMPRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY /AROUND
20F LOWER THAN TUESDAY/ WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. A
WEST-EAST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER TODAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THUS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND FINALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE AREA A LONGER. POPS HAVE BEEN
NUDGED ACCORDINGLY. THIS DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A REAL WET SYSTEM FOR
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO...BUT IT WILL OFFER A FEW DAYS
OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY PRECIPITATION.
NORTHERN AREAS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS CAN EXPECT VERY LIMITED AMOUNTS. ENOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. KEPT
TEMPERATURES ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA. MAY NEED TO BRING SOME POPS INTO THE NORTH
IF MODEL SHOW CONSISTENCY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE RUNS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....TL

000
FXUS65 KBOI 180943
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BIG CHANGES THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...FROM WARM SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER TODAY TO COOL SHOWERY
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE PACNW COAST WILL
NUDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY BUT WILL HANG JUST OFF THE COAST BEFORE
MAKING MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ENOUGH BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
INCREASES TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS SPREADING INTO ALL OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE ALSO
INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. COOL SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COOLING WILL BE IMPRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY /AROUND
20F LOWER THAN TUESDAY/ WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. A
WEST-EAST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER TODAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THUS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND FINALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE AREA A LONGER. POPS HAVE BEEN
NUDGED ACCORDINGLY. THIS DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A REAL WET SYSTEM FOR
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO...BUT IT WILL OFFER A FEW DAYS
OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY PRECIPITATION.
NORTHERN AREAS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS CAN EXPECT VERY LIMITED AMOUNTS. ENOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. KEPT
TEMPERATURES ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA. MAY NEED TO BRING SOME POPS INTO THE NORTH
IF MODEL SHOW CONSISTENCY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND WEST OF A KMYL TO KBNO LINE...WITH
LOCAL MVFR VICINITY OF SHOWERS. ISOLATED AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EAST
AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND BAKER COUNTY. LOCAL MVFR
VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF LINE FROM KBKE TO KJER. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS
10-20KTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....TL
AVIATION.....TL

000
FXUS65 KBOI 180251 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
851 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...CENTER OF DEEP PACIFIC UPPER LOW NEAR 45N/130W
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ALONG 45N...REACHING NRN IDAHO
THURSDAY MORNING.  LOW WILL BRING SLIGHT COOLING TO OUR CWA
TUESDAY THEN DRASTIC COOLING WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...MODELS DO
NOT SHOW A DISTINCT COLD FRONT.  STABILITY PROGS SHOW BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  MODELS ALSO SHOW INSTABILITY
WEDNESDAY BUT BY THEN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE QUITE COOL AND
WEDNESDAY/S INSTABILITY MAY BE OVERDONE.   POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING HIGHER AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER AND MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN NAM NOW LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
MODEL...AT LEAST FOR PCPN.  BUT WE WILL DEFER UPDATE TO NEXT
CREW AFTER ALL 00Z MODEL DATA HAVE COME IN.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CUMULUS DECK AND ISOLATED VFR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON AND NEAR THE ID/NV/UT TRIPLE POINT
THROUGH 04Z. WIDESPREAD VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER 04Z.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SURFACE WINDS...BECOMING WEST /GENERALLY 15 KTS OR
LESS/ AFTER SUNSET. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS AT
10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF
THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...CENTERED AT 45N
132W AT 2 PM MDT. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND BE RIGHT OVERHEAD
LATE IN THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN SW FLOW
ALOFT AND THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA...AND
ALSO IN SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM TUE...A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY...LEADING TO A
STRONG COOL-DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY. WED HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY
COOL DAY...BUT AT THIS TIME WE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR
THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IF THE CLOUDS END UP
BEING THICKER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO
REACH 60. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS THE MAIN
UPPER LOW MOVES IN. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT THIS. WINDS
WILL NOT BE STRONG WITH SYSTEM...BUT DUE TO THE COOL TEMPS...THE
MODERATE BREEZES ON WED MAY FEEL QUITE CHILLY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT IT ALSO APPEARS THAT MODELS HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE THE TIMING OF THIS LOW MOVING TO THE EAST. YESTERDAY MODELS
HAD THIS LOW MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MONTANA ON FRIDAY BUT NOW
IT DOES NOT MOVE INTO WESTERN MONTANA UNTIL SATURDAY. WITH THE
SLOWER TIMING INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG NORTHERN ZONE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND COOLED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES. WITH
THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS OF A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW STILL LOOKS
LIKE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY BUT
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY SATURDAY. SATURDAY INTO MONDAY A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CWA AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DIGS
OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. INCREASING
TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES TOWARD THE WA AND ORE COAST ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....MT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA/KA

000
FXUS65 KBOI 172057 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
257 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS
OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...CENTERED
AT 45N 132W AT 2 PM MDT. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT
THIS LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND BE RIGHT
OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
IN SW FLOW ALOFT AND THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...AND ALSO IN SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WARM TUE...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A STRONG COOL-DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY. WED HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY COOL DAY...BUT AT THIS TIME WE HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. IF THE CLOUDS END UP BEING THICKER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH 60. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES IN. POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT THIS. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG WITH
SYSTEM...BUT DUE TO THE COOL TEMPS...THE MODERATE BREEZES ON WED
MAY FEEL QUITE CHILLY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT IT ALSO APPEARS THAT MODELS HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE THE TIMING OF THIS LOW MOVING TO THE EAST.
YESTERDAY MODELS HAD THIS LOW MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MONTANA ON FRIDAY BUT NOW IT DOES NOT MOVE INTO WESTERN MONTANA
UNTIL SATURDAY. WITH THE SLOWER TIMING INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG
NORTHERN ZONE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND COOLED
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES. WITH THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS OF A
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW STILL LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SATURDAY. SATURDAY INTO MONDAY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CWA AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DIGS OFF THE COAST OF
WASHINGTON FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. INCREASING TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TOWARD
THE WA AND ORE COAST ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE OF POPS IN
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND OVER
SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER. WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS EVENING...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JA/KA
AVIATION.....JA

000
FXUS65 KBOI 172053
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
253 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS
OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...CENTERED
AT 45N 132W AT 2 PM MDT. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT
THIS LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND BE RIGHT
OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
IN SW FLOW ALOFT AND THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...AND ALSO IN SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WARM TUE...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A STRONG COOL-DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY. WED HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY COOL DAY...BUT AT THIS TIME WE HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. IF THE CLOUDS END UP BEING THICKER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH 60. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES IN. POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT THIS. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG WITH
SYSTEM...BUT DUE TO THE COOL TEMPS...THE MODERATE BREEZES ON WED
MAY FEEL QUITE CHILLY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT IT ALSO APPEARS THAT MODELS HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE THE TIMING OF THIS LOW MOVING TO THE EAST.
YESTERDAY MODELS HAD THIS LOW MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MONTANA ON FRIDAY BUT NOW IT DOES NOT MOVE INTO WESTERN MONTANA
UNTIL SATURDAY. WITH THE SLOWER TIMING INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG
NORTHERN ZONE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND COOLED
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES. WITH THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS OF A
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW STILL LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND OVER
SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER. WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS EVENING...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JA/KA
AVIATION.....JA

000
FXUS65 KBOI 171539
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
939 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING.
NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS HEADED OUR WAY TODAY...SO ONLY
EXPECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF BAKER COUNTY...THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH
OF MCCALL...AND IN FAR SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. THIS WILL BE
OUR LAST DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS UNTIL SUNDAY...AS COOLING
BEGINS TOMORROW AND INTENSIFIES WED. NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO...MAINLY NORTH OF KMYL...AND IN
SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY
10 KNOTS OR LESS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
HANGS OFF THE PACNW COAST. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY NORTH OF A BURNS-BAKER
CITY-MCCALL LINE. THE UPPER LOW WILL WORK EASTWARD AND SPREAD MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...WHICH ARE THE AREAS LOCATED AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST IN THE
TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS AND ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. TODAY/S
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY WHEN VALLEY HIGHS WERE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST OREGON WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES LOWER.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND SLOWLY MEANDER IT ACROSS IDAHO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM FINALLY KICKS EAST SATURDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BEHIND IT. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL
KICKING UP WESTERLY WINDS. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF INSTABILITY FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER PROGGED
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AN UPPER JET AXIS CUTTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IDAHO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS
LIKELY THE BIGGEST THREAT. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT GRADUALLY TRENDING UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. BROUGHT
THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....TL

000
FXUS65 KBOI 170939
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
HANGS OFF THE PACNW COAST. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY NORTH OF A BURNS-BAKER
CITY-MCCALL LINE. THE UPPER LOW WILL WORK EASTWARD AND SPREAD MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...WHICH ARE THE AREAS LOCATED AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST IN THE
TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS AND ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. TODAY/S
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY WHEN VALLEY HIGHS WERE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST OREGON WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES LOWER.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND SLOWLY MEANDER IT ACROSS IDAHO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM FINALLY KICKS EAST SATURDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BEHIND IT. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL
KICKING UP WESTERLY WINDS. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF INSTABILITY FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER PROGGED
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AN UPPER JET AXIS CUTTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IDAHO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS
LIKELY THE BIGGEST THREAT. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT GRADUALLY TRENDING UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. BROUGHT
THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS OVER BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO...AND IN SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY IDAHO.
AFTERNOON WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON
AND OWYHEE COUNTY IN IDAHO...OTHERWISE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS
ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY UP TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 10K FEET MSL...INCREASING
TO 10 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....TL
AVIATION.....TL

000
FXUS65 KBOI 170222
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
822 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS IN MALHEUR AND OWYHEE COUNTIES BROUGHT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THIS EVENING...A FEW
BOUNDARIES EXTENDED FROM CALDWELL TO KUNA TO MOUNTAIN HOME AREAS
AS OF 8 PM. WIND GUSTS WEAKENED INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE AS OF 8
PM...BUT GUSTED TO 43 MPH AT ROME AND 48 MPH AT BRACE FLAT RAWS
WITH STRONGEST CELLS EARLIER TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST DROPS OFF
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MALHEUR AND SW IDAHO NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE SNAKE RIVER BY 9 PM AND THAT LOOKS GOOD. WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING PROBABLY WON/T MEAN A
TOTALLY DRY AND CLEAR NIGHT FOR A FEW SPOTS MAINLY MOUNTAINS OF SE
OREGON. IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SE OREGON A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER TIL
4-6Z AND ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AS IN
FORECAST. SO NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS DIMINISHING. ALTOCU
AND ISOALTED SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM KBNO-KWMC BY 03Z KBNO-KMYL
BY 09Z AND...NW OF A LINE FROM KBNO-KBKE AFTER 09Z. REDEVELOPMENT
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CONVECTION IS GETTING
GOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY. TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST...A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS HEADED OUR WAY AND WAS LOCATED IN NW NV AT
230 PM MDT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
IS HELPING TO GENERATE THE CONVECTION. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE. IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY...INCLUDING THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM ASSOCIATED VIRGA IF
CONVECTION MAKES IT THAT FAR AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATER
TONIGHT THIS WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH. TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT ALSO IN
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...IN SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. AS THE MAIN
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TUE...HEIGHTS WILL FALL
AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WILL
COOL NEARLY 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY IN HARNEY COUNTY AND
AROUND 5 DEGREES IN BAKER AND MALHEUR COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE 1 TO
5 DEGREES COOLING IN THE IDAHO COUNTIES. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES TUE AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. THIS WILL
BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS THE LOW SLOWLY
MOVES EAST TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM AND BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND MAINLY
OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS OF
IDAHO. AS THIS LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
DECREASE FROM THE WEST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO ALBERTA ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....VM
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA/KA

000
FXUS65 KBOI 162055
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
255 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CONVECTION IS GETTING
GOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY. TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST...A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS HEADED OUR WAY AND WAS LOCATED IN NW NV AT
230 PM MDT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. THIS
IS HELPING TO GENERATE THE CONVECTION. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE. IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY...INCLUDING THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM ASSOCIATED VIRGA IF
CONVECTION MAKES IT THAT FAR AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATER
TONIGHT THIS WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH. TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT ALSO IN
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...IN SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. AS THE MAIN
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TUE...HEIGHTS WILL FALL
AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WILL
COOL NEARLY 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY IN HARNEY COUNTY AND
AROUND 5 DEGREES IN BAKER AND MALHEUR COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE 1 TO
5 DEGREES COOLING IN THE IDAHO COUNTIES. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES TUE AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. THIS WILL
BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS THE LOW SLOWLY
MOVES EAST TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM AND BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND MAINLY
OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS OF
IDAHO. AS THIS LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
DECREASE FROM THE WEST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO ALBERTA ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO. SATELLITE SHOWING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE JARBIDGE MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN NEVADA SO CAN NOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER TWIN FALLS AND JEROME
COUNTIES. SURFACE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JA/KA
AVIATION.....JA