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000
FXUS65 KBOI 222050
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND EVEN THE RADAR STORM
SIGNATURES ARE SIMILAR WITH SLOW-MOVING PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL ARE ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH NO REPORTS AS
YET SINCE THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OCCURRING MOSTLY IN REMOTE AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE /MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS/ THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS WILL TRACK E-NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA...A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WILL START WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
IN SW IDAHO. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IMPACTING THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...THEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
LINGERING OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE 11Z-14Z SATURDAY INCLUDING KMYL AND KBKE AREAS. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AT 10K FEET MSL NORTHERLY UP TO 15KT.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...MOST NUMEROUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED MVFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN
SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 10-20KT SATURDAY...THEN NW
GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ALOFT NORTHERLY
15 TO 25 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL SATURDAY...DECREASING TO 10-15 KTS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....TL/WH
AVIATION.....TL




000
FXUS65 KBOI 222050
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND EVEN THE RADAR STORM
SIGNATURES ARE SIMILAR WITH SLOW-MOVING PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL ARE ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH NO REPORTS AS
YET SINCE THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OCCURRING MOSTLY IN REMOTE AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE /MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS/ THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS WILL TRACK E-NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA...A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WILL START WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
IN SW IDAHO. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IMPACTING THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...THEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
LINGERING OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE 11Z-14Z SATURDAY INCLUDING KMYL AND KBKE AREAS. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AT 10K FEET MSL NORTHERLY UP TO 15KT.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...MOST NUMEROUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED MVFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN
SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 10-20KT SATURDAY...THEN NW
GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ALOFT NORTHERLY
15 TO 25 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL SATURDAY...DECREASING TO 10-15 KTS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....TL/WH
AVIATION.....TL





000
FXUS65 KBOI 221542
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
942 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL RESIDE BETWEEN A PAIR OF
UPPER LOWS TODAY...ONE TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN /MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE/...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO INCLUDE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS KTWF AND KJER
AREA...AS WELL AS KBNO KREO AND KONO AREAS WITH ISOLATED MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN VALLEYS...ISOLATED
MVFR IN SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS...GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT UP TO 10K FT MSL...VARIABLE 5-10KT
BECOMING N 10-20KT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IN SRN CALIF THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
WRN COLORADO BY LATE SATURDAY.  NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES TODAY WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE SATURDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAREST TO THOSE LOWS.
BUT BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE IN OUR NRN ZONES
IN IDAHO AND IN ERN OREGON.  ON SATURDAY THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  UPPER WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY AS
THEY DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE WILL
LET DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR TODAY.
TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY OR SATURDAY FROM YESTERDAY...EXCEPT
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AROUND.  TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD AND MOIST WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....TL
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 221542
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
942 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL RESIDE BETWEEN A PAIR OF
UPPER LOWS TODAY...ONE TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN /MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE/...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO INCLUDE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS KTWF AND KJER
AREA...AS WELL AS KBNO KREO AND KONO AREAS WITH ISOLATED MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN VALLEYS...ISOLATED
MVFR IN SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS...GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT UP TO 10K FT MSL...VARIABLE 5-10KT
BECOMING N 10-20KT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IN SRN CALIF THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
WRN COLORADO BY LATE SATURDAY.  NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES TODAY WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE SATURDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAREST TO THOSE LOWS.
BUT BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE IN OUR NRN ZONES
IN IDAHO AND IN ERN OREGON.  ON SATURDAY THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  UPPER WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY AS
THEY DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE WILL
LET DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR TODAY.
TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY OR SATURDAY FROM YESTERDAY...EXCEPT
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AROUND.  TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD AND MOIST WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....TL
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 220927
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
327 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IN SRN CALIF THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
WRN COLORADO BY LATE SATURDAY.  NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES TODAY WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE SATURDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAREST TO THOSE LOWS.
BUT BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE IN OUR NRN ZONES
IN IDAHO AND IN ERN OREGON.  ON SATURDAY THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  UPPER WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY AS
THEY DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE WILL
LET DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR TODAY.
TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY OR SATURDAY FROM YESTERDAY...EXCEPT
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AROUND.  TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD AND MOIST WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z/FRI. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR
LESS...GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...VARIABLE 5-10KT BECOMING NE 10-20KT BY 18Z/FRI.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 220927
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
327 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IN SRN CALIF THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
WRN COLORADO BY LATE SATURDAY.  NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES TODAY WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE SATURDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAREST TO THOSE LOWS.
BUT BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE IN OUR NRN ZONES
IN IDAHO AND IN ERN OREGON.  ON SATURDAY THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  UPPER WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY AS
THEY DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE WILL
LET DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR TODAY.
TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY OR SATURDAY FROM YESTERDAY...EXCEPT
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AROUND.  TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD AND MOIST WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z/FRI. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR
LESS...GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...VARIABLE 5-10KT BECOMING NE 10-20KT BY 18Z/FRI.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 220927
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
327 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IN SRN CALIF THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
WRN COLORADO BY LATE SATURDAY.  NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES TODAY WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE SATURDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAREST TO THOSE LOWS.
BUT BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE IN OUR NRN ZONES
IN IDAHO AND IN ERN OREGON.  ON SATURDAY THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  UPPER WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY AS
THEY DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE WILL
LET DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR TODAY.
TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY OR SATURDAY FROM YESTERDAY...EXCEPT
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AROUND.  TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD AND MOIST WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z/FRI. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR
LESS...GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...VARIABLE 5-10KT BECOMING NE 10-20KT BY 18Z/FRI.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 220927
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
327 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IN SRN CALIF THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
WRN COLORADO BY LATE SATURDAY.  NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES TODAY WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE SATURDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAREST TO THOSE LOWS.
BUT BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE IN OUR NRN ZONES
IN IDAHO AND IN ERN OREGON.  ON SATURDAY THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  UPPER WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY AS
THEY DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE WILL
LET DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR TODAY.
TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY OR SATURDAY FROM YESTERDAY...EXCEPT
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AROUND.  TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD AND MOIST WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z/FRI. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR
LESS...GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...VARIABLE 5-10KT BECOMING NE 10-20KT BY 18Z/FRI.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 220247
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
844 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF WITH
SUNSET AS SOLAR HEATING REMAINS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF EVENING
CONVECTION. MOST STORMS HAVE PRODUCED MODERATE-TO-HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SMALL HAIL AS A MOIST ENVIRONMENT COUPLES WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW
AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT WINDS TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE TO ISOLATED BY AROUND 05Z. AFTER 18Z FRIDAY SHOWERS
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONVECTION STARTED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LACK OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THAT
EXISTED ON PREVIOUS DAYS. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED FIRST AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-ONTARIO-IDAHO CITY LINE. THE
STEERING WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK AND THUS THE STORMS ARE MOVING
SLOWLY...RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL NOT EXPECTING A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
TRACK E-NE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE PACNW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY IN SW IDAHO BUT DRIER STABLE AIR WILL WORK
INTO PORTIONS OF SE OREGON BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN CONSISTENT...WITH MAINLY AFT-EVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA.  SEVERAL IN A SERIES OF
CLOSED LOWS WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THAT WILL
REINFORCE THE LONG WAVE THROUGH.  THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION BUT MAY NOT BE LONG ENOUGH FOR A
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...MT
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 220247
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
844 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF WITH
SUNSET AS SOLAR HEATING REMAINS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF EVENING
CONVECTION. MOST STORMS HAVE PRODUCED MODERATE-TO-HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SMALL HAIL AS A MOIST ENVIRONMENT COUPLES WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW
AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT WINDS TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE TO ISOLATED BY AROUND 05Z. AFTER 18Z FRIDAY SHOWERS
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONVECTION STARTED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LACK OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THAT
EXISTED ON PREVIOUS DAYS. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED FIRST AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-ONTARIO-IDAHO CITY LINE. THE
STEERING WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK AND THUS THE STORMS ARE MOVING
SLOWLY...RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL NOT EXPECTING A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
TRACK E-NE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE PACNW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY IN SW IDAHO BUT DRIER STABLE AIR WILL WORK
INTO PORTIONS OF SE OREGON BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN CONSISTENT...WITH MAINLY AFT-EVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA.  SEVERAL IN A SERIES OF
CLOSED LOWS WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THAT WILL
REINFORCE THE LONG WAVE THROUGH.  THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION BUT MAY NOT BE LONG ENOUGH FOR A
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...MT
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH





000
FXUS65 KBOI 220244
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
844 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
WITH SUNSET AS SOLAR HEATING REMAINS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MOST STORMS HAVE PRODUCED MODERATE-TO-HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL AS A MOIST ENVIRONMENT COUPLES WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT WINDS
TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE TO ISOLATED BY AROUND 05Z. AFTER 18Z FRIDAY SHOWERS
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONVECTION STARTED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LACK OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THAT
EXISTED ON PREVIOUS DAYS. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED FIRST AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-ONTARIO-IDAHO CITY LINE. THE
STEERING WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK AND THUS THE STORMS ARE MOVING
SLOWLY...RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL NOT EXPECTING A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
TRACK E-NE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE PACNW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY IN SW IDAHO BUT DRIER STABLE AIR WILL WORK
INTO PORTIONS OF SE OREGON BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN CONSISTENT...WITH MAINLY AFT-EVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA.  SEVERAL IN A SERIES OF
CLOSED LOWS WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THAT WILL
REINFORCE THE LONG WAVE THROUGH.  THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION BUT MAY NOT BE LONG ENOUGH FOR A
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...MT
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH





000
FXUS65 KBOI 220244
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
844 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
WITH SUNSET AS SOLAR HEATING REMAINS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MOST STORMS HAVE PRODUCED MODERATE-TO-HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL AS A MOIST ENVIRONMENT COUPLES WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT WINDS
TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE TO ISOLATED BY AROUND 05Z. AFTER 18Z FRIDAY SHOWERS
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONVECTION STARTED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LACK OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THAT
EXISTED ON PREVIOUS DAYS. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED FIRST AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-ONTARIO-IDAHO CITY LINE. THE
STEERING WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK AND THUS THE STORMS ARE MOVING
SLOWLY...RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL NOT EXPECTING A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
TRACK E-NE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE PACNW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY IN SW IDAHO BUT DRIER STABLE AIR WILL WORK
INTO PORTIONS OF SE OREGON BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN CONSISTENT...WITH MAINLY AFT-EVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA.  SEVERAL IN A SERIES OF
CLOSED LOWS WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THAT WILL
REINFORCE THE LONG WAVE THROUGH.  THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION BUT MAY NOT BE LONG ENOUGH FOR A
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...MT
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 212006
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
206 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONVECTION STARTED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LACK OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THAT
EXISTED ON PREVIOUS DAYS. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED FIRST AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-ONTARIO-IDAHO CITY LINE. THE
STEERING WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK AND THUS THE STORMS ARE MOVING
SLOWLY...RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL NOT EXPECTING A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
TRACK E-NE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE PACNW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY IN SW IDAHO BUT DRIER STABLE AIR WILL WORK
INTO PORTIONS OF SE OREGON BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN CONSISTENT...WITH MAINLY AFT-EVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA.  SEVERAL IN A SERIES OF
CLOSED LOWS WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THAT WILL
REINFORCE THE LONG WAVE THROUGH.  THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION BUT MAY NOT BE LONG ENOUGH FOR A
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ENDING AROUND 05Z.  AFTER 05Z SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TO ISOLATED.
LOCAL MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH
05Z ALONG WITH LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.  SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UP THROUGH
10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 211546
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
946 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION TODAY...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCE THIS MORNING
WAS THE ABSENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SOUTH OF A BURNS-BOISE-
FAIRFIELD LINE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SLOW-MOVING AND
THUS HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. FORECAST IS
ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  THIS MORNING BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN SHOWERS ACROSS BAKER COUNTY OREGON.  AFTER 19Z
SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED
IN THE VALLEYS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.  SURFACE WINDS 12 KNOTS OR LESS EXCEPT GUSTY NEAR
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND DRIER THAN PAST
TWO DAYS AS YESTERDAY/S UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND DISSIPATES AND
NEXT PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO CALIF.  INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN HELP FORM
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VALLEYS.  THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN CALIF TONIGHT AND
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS
LOW.  MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN IN OUR CWA WITH ONLY LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT.  MODELS SHOW MORE MOISTURE FRIDAY THAN TODAY AND POPS
AND QPF WILL BE HIGHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER TODAY THEN LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.  MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILD AGAIN TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.  NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS
EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS AMONG
MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM. WITH EMBEDDED CLOSED LOWS MOVING
SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH A CONSISTENT MOISTURE FLOW. SOME BREAKS IN PRECIP CAN
BE EXPECTED...BUT OVERALL...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 211546
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
946 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION TODAY...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCE THIS MORNING
WAS THE ABSENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SOUTH OF A BURNS-BOISE-
FAIRFIELD LINE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SLOW-MOVING AND
THUS HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. FORECAST IS
ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  THIS MORNING BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN SHOWERS ACROSS BAKER COUNTY OREGON.  AFTER 19Z
SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED
IN THE VALLEYS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.  SURFACE WINDS 12 KNOTS OR LESS EXCEPT GUSTY NEAR
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND DRIER THAN PAST
TWO DAYS AS YESTERDAY/S UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND DISSIPATES AND
NEXT PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO CALIF.  INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN HELP FORM
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VALLEYS.  THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN CALIF TONIGHT AND
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS
LOW.  MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN IN OUR CWA WITH ONLY LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT.  MODELS SHOW MORE MOISTURE FRIDAY THAN TODAY AND POPS
AND QPF WILL BE HIGHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER TODAY THEN LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.  MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILD AGAIN TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.  NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS
EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS AMONG
MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM. WITH EMBEDDED CLOSED LOWS MOVING
SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH A CONSISTENT MOISTURE FLOW. SOME BREAKS IN PRECIP CAN
BE EXPECTED...BUT OVERALL...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP





000
FXUS65 KBOI 211546
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
946 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION TODAY...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCE THIS MORNING
WAS THE ABSENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SOUTH OF A BURNS-BOISE-
FAIRFIELD LINE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SLOW-MOVING AND
THUS HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. FORECAST IS
ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  THIS MORNING BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN SHOWERS ACROSS BAKER COUNTY OREGON.  AFTER 19Z
SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED
IN THE VALLEYS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.  SURFACE WINDS 12 KNOTS OR LESS EXCEPT GUSTY NEAR
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND DRIER THAN PAST
TWO DAYS AS YESTERDAY/S UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND DISSIPATES AND
NEXT PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO CALIF.  INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN HELP FORM
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VALLEYS.  THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN CALIF TONIGHT AND
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS
LOW.  MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN IN OUR CWA WITH ONLY LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT.  MODELS SHOW MORE MOISTURE FRIDAY THAN TODAY AND POPS
AND QPF WILL BE HIGHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER TODAY THEN LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.  MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILD AGAIN TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.  NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS
EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS AMONG
MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM. WITH EMBEDDED CLOSED LOWS MOVING
SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH A CONSISTENT MOISTURE FLOW. SOME BREAKS IN PRECIP CAN
BE EXPECTED...BUT OVERALL...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 211546
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
946 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION TODAY...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCE THIS MORNING
WAS THE ABSENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SOUTH OF A BURNS-BOISE-
FAIRFIELD LINE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SLOW-MOVING AND
THUS HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. FORECAST IS
ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  THIS MORNING BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN SHOWERS ACROSS BAKER COUNTY OREGON.  AFTER 19Z
SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED
IN THE VALLEYS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.  SURFACE WINDS 12 KNOTS OR LESS EXCEPT GUSTY NEAR
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND DRIER THAN PAST
TWO DAYS AS YESTERDAY/S UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND DISSIPATES AND
NEXT PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO CALIF.  INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN HELP FORM
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VALLEYS.  THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN CALIF TONIGHT AND
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS
LOW.  MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN IN OUR CWA WITH ONLY LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT.  MODELS SHOW MORE MOISTURE FRIDAY THAN TODAY AND POPS
AND QPF WILL BE HIGHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER TODAY THEN LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.  MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILD AGAIN TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.  NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS
EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS AMONG
MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM. WITH EMBEDDED CLOSED LOWS MOVING
SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH A CONSISTENT MOISTURE FLOW. SOME BREAKS IN PRECIP CAN
BE EXPECTED...BUT OVERALL...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP





000
FXUS65 KBOI 210845
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
245 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND DRIER THAN PAST
TWO DAYS AS YESTERDAY/S UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND DISSIPATES AND
NEXT PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO CALIF.  INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN HELP FORM
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VALLEYS.  THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN CALIF TONIGHT AND
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS
LOW.  MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN IN OUR CWA WITH ONLY LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT.  MODELS SHOW MORE MOISTURE FRIDAY THAN TODAY AND POPS
AND QPF WILL BE HIGHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER TODAY THEN LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.  MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILD AGAIN TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.  NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS
EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.ONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS AMONG
MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM. WITH EMBEDDED CLOSED LOWS MOVING
SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH A CONSISTENT MOISTURE FLOW. SOME BREAKS IN PRECIP CAN
BE EXPECTED...BUT OVERALL...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE GUSTY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...SOUTH 10-15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 210845
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
245 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND DRIER THAN PAST
TWO DAYS AS YESTERDAY/S UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND DISSIPATES AND
NEXT PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO CALIF.  INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN HELP FORM
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VALLEYS.  THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN CALIF TONIGHT AND
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS
LOW.  MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN IN OUR CWA WITH ONLY LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT.  MODELS SHOW MORE MOISTURE FRIDAY THAN TODAY AND POPS
AND QPF WILL BE HIGHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER TODAY THEN LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.  MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILD AGAIN TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.  NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS
EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.ONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS AMONG
MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM. WITH EMBEDDED CLOSED LOWS MOVING
SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH A CONSISTENT MOISTURE FLOW. SOME BREAKS IN PRECIP CAN
BE EXPECTED...BUT OVERALL...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE GUSTY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...SOUTH 10-15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 210845
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
245 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND DRIER THAN PAST
TWO DAYS AS YESTERDAY/S UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND DISSIPATES AND
NEXT PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO CALIF.  INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN HELP FORM
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VALLEYS.  THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN CALIF TONIGHT AND
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS
LOW.  MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN IN OUR CWA WITH ONLY LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT.  MODELS SHOW MORE MOISTURE FRIDAY THAN TODAY AND POPS
AND QPF WILL BE HIGHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER TODAY THEN LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.  MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILD AGAIN TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.  NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS
EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.ONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS AMONG
MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM. WITH EMBEDDED CLOSED LOWS MOVING
SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH A CONSISTENT MOISTURE FLOW. SOME BREAKS IN PRECIP CAN
BE EXPECTED...BUT OVERALL...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE GUSTY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...SOUTH 10-15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP





000
FXUS65 KBOI 210845
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
245 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...AIR MASS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND DRIER THAN PAST
TWO DAYS AS YESTERDAY/S UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND DISSIPATES AND
NEXT PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO CALIF.  INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN HELP FORM
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VALLEYS.  THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN CALIF TONIGHT AND
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS
LOW.  MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN IN OUR CWA WITH ONLY LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT.  MODELS SHOW MORE MOISTURE FRIDAY THAN TODAY AND POPS
AND QPF WILL BE HIGHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER TODAY THEN LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.  MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILD AGAIN TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.  NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS
EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.ONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS AMONG
MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM. WITH EMBEDDED CLOSED LOWS MOVING
SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH A CONSISTENT MOISTURE FLOW. SOME BREAKS IN PRECIP CAN
BE EXPECTED...BUT OVERALL...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE GUSTY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS...GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...SOUTH 10-15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP





000
FXUS65 KBOI 210320
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
920 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIATED FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKED INTO CENTRAL NV. THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS WAVE HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IT WILL
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT CONTINUES A SLOW TRACK TO THE NORTH. MID-
LEVEL FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE MADE UPDATE TO THE
FORECAST TO LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIP AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SNAKE
PLAIN FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS...WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 05Z. AFTER 05Z
SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED IN THE VALLEYS
AFTER 18Z...WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS
OR LESS EXCEPT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE
FORECAST...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS/ EXPECTED EACH DAY. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN /AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING/ WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST AS LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVE
SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA ALONG THE WEST COAST.  THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR CHANCE
POPS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 210320
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
920 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIATED FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKED INTO CENTRAL NV. THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS WAVE HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IT WILL
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT CONTINUES A SLOW TRACK TO THE NORTH. MID-
LEVEL FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE MADE UPDATE TO THE
FORECAST TO LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIP AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SNAKE
PLAIN FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS...WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 05Z. AFTER 05Z
SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED IN THE VALLEYS
AFTER 18Z...WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS
OR LESS EXCEPT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE
FORECAST...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS/ EXPECTED EACH DAY. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN /AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING/ WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST AS LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVE
SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA ALONG THE WEST COAST.  THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR CHANCE
POPS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH





000
FXUS65 KBOI 210320
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
920 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIATED FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKED INTO CENTRAL NV. THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS WAVE HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IT WILL
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT CONTINUES A SLOW TRACK TO THE NORTH. MID-
LEVEL FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE MADE UPDATE TO THE
FORECAST TO LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIP AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SNAKE
PLAIN FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS...WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 05Z. AFTER 05Z
SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED IN THE VALLEYS
AFTER 18Z...WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS
OR LESS EXCEPT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE
FORECAST...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS/ EXPECTED EACH DAY. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN /AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING/ WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST AS LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVE
SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA ALONG THE WEST COAST.  THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR CHANCE
POPS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 202032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
232 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE
FORECAST...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS/ EXPECTED EACH DAY. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN /AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING/ WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST AS LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVE
SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA ALONG THE WEST COAST.  THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR CHANCE
POPS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AROUND 05Z.
AFTER 05Z SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TO ISOLATED.  LOCAL MVFR AND
ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH 05Z ALONG WITH
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR
LESS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS
ALOFT SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 202032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
232 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE
FORECAST...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS/ EXPECTED EACH DAY. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN /AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING/ WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST AS LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVE
SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA ALONG THE WEST COAST.  THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR CHANCE
POPS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AROUND 05Z.
AFTER 05Z SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TO ISOLATED.  LOCAL MVFR AND
ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH 05Z ALONG WITH
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR
LESS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS
ALOFT SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 201604
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1004 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE...ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS...THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIMIT THE INTENSE
RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WITH FLASH FLOOD TYPE THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THERE IS
STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND STORMS...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.  AFTER
19Z NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH UPPER LOW ELONGATED EAST-WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
IDAHO AND WYOMING.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN PRODUCE LOCAL HEAVY
RAIN AND WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT STORMS COULD PRODUCE FLOODING
IN MOUNTAIN AREAS.  WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN IDAHO MOUNTAIN ZONES ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.  THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS WATCH.  CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE THURSDAY WHEN THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.  THURSDAY/S MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER.  ALSO...AIR MASS IS MOIST
ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG IN NORTHERN VALLEYS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LONG WAVE TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS
MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND CREATE UNSETTLED CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS AND
VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR STRONGER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...EAST 10-15 KTS...THEN AFTER 21/06Z SOUTH 10-
15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 201604
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1004 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE...ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS...THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIMIT THE INTENSE
RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WITH FLASH FLOOD TYPE THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THERE IS
STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND STORMS...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.  AFTER
19Z NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH UPPER LOW ELONGATED EAST-WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
IDAHO AND WYOMING.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN PRODUCE LOCAL HEAVY
RAIN AND WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT STORMS COULD PRODUCE FLOODING
IN MOUNTAIN AREAS.  WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN IDAHO MOUNTAIN ZONES ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.  THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS WATCH.  CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE THURSDAY WHEN THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.  THURSDAY/S MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER.  ALSO...AIR MASS IS MOIST
ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG IN NORTHERN VALLEYS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LONG WAVE TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS
MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND CREATE UNSETTLED CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS AND
VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR STRONGER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...EAST 10-15 KTS...THEN AFTER 21/06Z SOUTH 10-
15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP





000
FXUS65 KBOI 200906
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
306 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH UPPER LOW ELONGATED EAST-WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
IDAHO AND WYOMING.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN PRODUCE LOCAL HEAVY
RAIN AND WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT STORMS COULD PRODUCE FLOODING
IN MOUNTAIN AREAS.  WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN IDAHO MOUNTAIN ZONES ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.  THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS WATCH.  CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE THURSDAY WHEN THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.  THURSDAY/S MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER.  ALSO...AIR MASS IS MOIST
ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG IN NORTHERN VALLEYS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LONG WAVE TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS
MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND CREATE UNSETTLED CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS AND
VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR STRONGER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...EAST 10-15 KTS...THEN AFTER 21/06Z SOUTH 10-
15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     IDZ011-013-015-029-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 200906
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
306 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH UPPER LOW ELONGATED EAST-WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
IDAHO AND WYOMING.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN PRODUCE LOCAL HEAVY
RAIN AND WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT STORMS COULD PRODUCE FLOODING
IN MOUNTAIN AREAS.  WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN IDAHO MOUNTAIN ZONES ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.  THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS WATCH.  CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE THURSDAY WHEN THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.  THURSDAY/S MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER.  ALSO...AIR MASS IS MOIST
ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG IN NORTHERN VALLEYS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LONG WAVE TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS
MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND CREATE UNSETTLED CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS AND
VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR STRONGER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...EAST 10-15 KTS...THEN AFTER 21/06Z SOUTH 10-
15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     IDZ011-013-015-029-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP





000
FXUS65 KBOI 200906
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
306 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH UPPER LOW ELONGATED EAST-WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
IDAHO AND WYOMING.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN PRODUCE LOCAL HEAVY
RAIN AND WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT STORMS COULD PRODUCE FLOODING
IN MOUNTAIN AREAS.  WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN IDAHO MOUNTAIN ZONES ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.  THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS WATCH.  CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE THURSDAY WHEN THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.  THURSDAY/S MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER.  ALSO...AIR MASS IS MOIST
ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG IN NORTHERN VALLEYS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LONG WAVE TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS
MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND CREATE UNSETTLED CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS AND
VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR STRONGER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...EAST 10-15 KTS...THEN AFTER 21/06Z SOUTH 10-
15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     IDZ011-013-015-029-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP





000
FXUS65 KBOI 200906
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
306 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH UPPER LOW ELONGATED EAST-WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
IDAHO AND WYOMING.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN PRODUCE LOCAL HEAVY
RAIN AND WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT STORMS COULD PRODUCE FLOODING
IN MOUNTAIN AREAS.  WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN IDAHO MOUNTAIN ZONES ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.  THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS AND CAMAS
PRAIRIE ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS WATCH.  CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE THURSDAY WHEN THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.  THURSDAY/S MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER.  ALSO...AIR MASS IS MOIST
ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG IN NORTHERN VALLEYS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LONG WAVE TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS
MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND CREATE UNSETTLED CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS AND
VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR STRONGER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...EAST 10-15 KTS...THEN AFTER 21/06Z SOUTH 10-
15 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     IDZ011-013-015-029-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 200311
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
911 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT/S AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
STRETCHES FROM MALHEUR COUNTY...EASTWARD INTO THE BOISE MTNS AND
SOUTHERN OWYHEE COUNTY. THIS PRECIPITATION IS MOVING TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
BACKEDGE WILL PUSH INTO OREGON BY MIDNIGHT. FURTHER UPSTREAM...
OVER EASTERN ID...AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN IS
ALSO TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST. THIS COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY AND CAMAS PRAIRIE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE TREASURE VALLEY. ANY FURTHER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING WILL BE LIMITED TO SE OREGON OR SW
IDAHO...NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR
MATCH EXPECTED CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...WITH
LESSER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL ABOUT 06Z.
SHOWERS DECREASING TO SCATTERED AFTER 06Z...BUT BECOMING NUMEROUS
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE
WINDS...VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT EAST TO SOUTHEAST 10-20 KTS
THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST UP TO 15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY THE SAME THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A BLOCKING
HIGH IN WESTERN CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS. THE RESULT FOR OUR AREA WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME...WITH
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE STORMS DUE TO LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ALSO...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN CONDUCIVE /ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS/ FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THIS TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION.
EXPECT A CHANCE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA/DD




000
FXUS65 KBOI 200311
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
911 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT/S AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
STRETCHES FROM MALHEUR COUNTY...EASTWARD INTO THE BOISE MTNS AND
SOUTHERN OWYHEE COUNTY. THIS PRECIPITATION IS MOVING TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
BACKEDGE WILL PUSH INTO OREGON BY MIDNIGHT. FURTHER UPSTREAM...
OVER EASTERN ID...AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN IS
ALSO TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST. THIS COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY AND CAMAS PRAIRIE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE TREASURE VALLEY. ANY FURTHER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING WILL BE LIMITED TO SE OREGON OR SW
IDAHO...NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR
MATCH EXPECTED CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...WITH
LESSER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL ABOUT 06Z.
SHOWERS DECREASING TO SCATTERED AFTER 06Z...BUT BECOMING NUMEROUS
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE
WINDS...VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT EAST TO SOUTHEAST 10-20 KTS
THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST UP TO 15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY THE SAME THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A BLOCKING
HIGH IN WESTERN CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS. THE RESULT FOR OUR AREA WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME...WITH
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE STORMS DUE TO LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ALSO...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN CONDUCIVE /ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS/ FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD LONG WAVE
TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THIS TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION.
EXPECT A CHANCE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA/DD





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