Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KBOI 220952
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
352 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...INTERMOUNTAIN FOG AND
STRATUS WILL LIFT LATE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE TODAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN POPS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SE OF BOISE THROUGH MUO/TWF/JER WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN DRY. HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BKE-
MYL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WHEN BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS OREGON BLM LANDS. HAVING PRECIP FURTHER SE SEEMS TO FIT
THE UPSTREAM SATIMG ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC WHICH SHOWED THE
MOISTURE AND JET AXIS HAS SAGGED SOUTH OF 40N AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE POISED TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE LARGE GULF
OF AK LOW FROM THE ALEUTIANS TODAY THROUGH WRN NOAM
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ENERGY DUE INLAND IN THE
EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH WARMING AND CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE
DRY AND WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10-20 DEGREES WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL 5500 FEET MSL ON SUNDAY. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE
TROUGH EXITS. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF INTERMOUNTAIN IFR FOG/STRATUS INCLUDING KMYL
UNTIL 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING AND VFR
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH 06Z. THURSDAY EXPECT DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF MTNS OBSCURED ESPECIALLY KBNO-KBOI-KJER
NORTHWARD. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT BECOMING SE-SW 10-20 KTS BY
THURSDAY. WINDS ALOFT SW 15KTS INCREASING TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....VM





000
FXUS65 KBOI 220952
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
352 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...INTERMOUNTAIN FOG AND
STRATUS WILL LIFT LATE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE TODAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN POPS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SE OF BOISE THROUGH MUO/TWF/JER WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN DRY. HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BKE-
MYL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WHEN BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS OREGON BLM LANDS. HAVING PRECIP FURTHER SE SEEMS TO FIT
THE UPSTREAM SATIMG ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC WHICH SHOWED THE
MOISTURE AND JET AXIS HAS SAGGED SOUTH OF 40N AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE POISED TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE LARGE GULF
OF AK LOW FROM THE ALEUTIANS TODAY THROUGH WRN NOAM
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ENERGY DUE INLAND IN THE
EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH WARMING AND CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE
DRY AND WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10-20 DEGREES WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL 5500 FEET MSL ON SUNDAY. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE
TROUGH EXITS. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF INTERMOUNTAIN IFR FOG/STRATUS INCLUDING KMYL
UNTIL 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING AND VFR
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH 06Z. THURSDAY EXPECT DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF MTNS OBSCURED ESPECIALLY KBNO-KBOI-KJER
NORTHWARD. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT BECOMING SE-SW 10-20 KTS BY
THURSDAY. WINDS ALOFT SW 15KTS INCREASING TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....VM





000
FXUS65 KBOI 220243
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
843 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST OF MCCALL THIS
EVENING WILL DISSIPATE BY 06Z LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. STILL A
GOOD PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING IN MTN VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL
COVERED THOUGH DID MOVE BACK THE TIMING TO 06Z GIVEN CLOUD COVER
TRENDS ON THE IR SATELLITE. DRY AND CLEAR ELSEWHERE ACROSS SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO TONIGHT. WILL SEE TOO MUCH OF AN E-SE WIND IN
THE SNAKE VALLEY TO ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FOR MUCH OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TONIGHT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS OF IFR DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MTN
VALLEYS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 15 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS AT 10K FEET ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST WITH SHOWERS DECREASING OVER THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINS...ARE
INGREDIENTS FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE NORTHERN MTN VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
ON THURSDAY AS A MOIST SW-NE ORIENTED PACIFIC PLUME ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PLUME WILL SLOWLY ENTER SE
OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /EXCLUDING THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE PLUME IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN AND NARROW AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA...THEREBY LIMITING THE
QPF AMOUNTS. THE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. THE GUSTY W-NW WINDS IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS THROUGHOUT
SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL BE MAINLY SW-SE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT ON SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONG AND DEEP TROUGH THAT WON/T MOVE IN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...PRECIP WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT SWINGS UP INTO WASHINGTON AND NRN
IDAHO...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM UP ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND BLUSTERY AS THE
STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE SHOWERS. SUNDAY
WILL BE COOL AND BLUSTERY WITH A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE RIDGE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLOWLY STARTS TO SPIN UP OVER THE
PACIFIC IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....DG
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....SP/AB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 220243
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
843 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST OF MCCALL THIS
EVENING WILL DISSIPATE BY 06Z LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. STILL A
GOOD PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING IN MTN VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL
COVERED THOUGH DID MOVE BACK THE TIMING TO 06Z GIVEN CLOUD COVER
TRENDS ON THE IR SATELLITE. DRY AND CLEAR ELSEWHERE ACROSS SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO TONIGHT. WILL SEE TOO MUCH OF AN E-SE WIND IN
THE SNAKE VALLEY TO ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FOR MUCH OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TONIGHT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS OF IFR DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MTN
VALLEYS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 15 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS AT 10K FEET ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST WITH SHOWERS DECREASING OVER THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINS...ARE
INGREDIENTS FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE NORTHERN MTN VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
ON THURSDAY AS A MOIST SW-NE ORIENTED PACIFIC PLUME ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PLUME WILL SLOWLY ENTER SE
OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /EXCLUDING THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE PLUME IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN AND NARROW AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA...THEREBY LIMITING THE
QPF AMOUNTS. THE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. THE GUSTY W-NW WINDS IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS THROUGHOUT
SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL BE MAINLY SW-SE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT ON SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONG AND DEEP TROUGH THAT WON/T MOVE IN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...PRECIP WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT SWINGS UP INTO WASHINGTON AND NRN
IDAHO...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM UP ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND BLUSTERY AS THE
STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE SHOWERS. SUNDAY
WILL BE COOL AND BLUSTERY WITH A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE RIDGE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLOWLY STARTS TO SPIN UP OVER THE
PACIFIC IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....DG
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....SP/AB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 212052
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
252 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST WITH SHOWERS DECREASING OVER THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINS...ARE
INGREDIENTS FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE NORTHERN MTN VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
ON THURSDAY AS A MOIST SW-NE ORIENTED PACIFIC PLUME ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PLUME WILL SLOWLY ENTER SE
OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /EXCLUDING THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE PLUME IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN AND NARROW AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA...THEREBY LIMITING THE
QPF AMOUNTS. THE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. THE GUSTY W-NW WINDS IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS THROUGHOUT
SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL BE MAINLY SW-SE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT ON SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONG AND DEEP TROUGH THAT WON/T MOVE IN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...PRECIP WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT SWINGS UP INTO WASHINGTON AND NRN
IDAHO...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM UP ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND BLUSTERY AS THE
STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE SHOWERS. SUNDAY
WILL BE COOL AND BLUSTERY WITH A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE RIDGE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLOWLY STARTS TO SPIN UP OVER THE
PACIFIC IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ISOLATED MVFR SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST IN THE MTNS WITH MTNS OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
BECOMING VFR ALL AREAS TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE FOG AT KMYL.
SFC WINDS GENERALLY W 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO
LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10 KFT WILL BE W
20-30 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....SP/AB
AVIATION.....SP





000
FXUS65 KBOI 211556
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
956 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS WAVE WAS ENHANCING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH SHOWERS DECREASING FROM SW
TO NW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE SHOWERS /SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 6500 FEET/ WILL
PERSIST IN THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY IS
MINIMAL...BUT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE TREASURE
VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH 18Z...BRINGING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED IFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT KJER...BUT
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG-LASTING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN
THE MTNS WITH MTNS OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS. VFR TONIGHT. SFC
WINDS GENERALLY W 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10 KFT WILL BE W 20-30
KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDITIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 211556
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
956 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS WAVE WAS ENHANCING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH SHOWERS DECREASING FROM SW
TO NW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE SHOWERS /SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 6500 FEET/ WILL
PERSIST IN THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY IS
MINIMAL...BUT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE TREASURE
VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH 18Z...BRINGING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED IFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT KJER...BUT
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG-LASTING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN
THE MTNS WITH MTNS OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS. VFR TONIGHT. SFC
WINDS GENERALLY W 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10 KFT WILL BE W 20-30
KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDITIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 211556
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
956 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS WAVE WAS ENHANCING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH SHOWERS DECREASING FROM SW
TO NW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE SHOWERS /SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 6500 FEET/ WILL
PERSIST IN THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY IS
MINIMAL...BUT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE TREASURE
VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH 18Z...BRINGING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED IFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT KJER...BUT
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG-LASTING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN
THE MTNS WITH MTNS OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS. VFR TONIGHT. SFC
WINDS GENERALLY W 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10 KFT WILL BE W 20-30
KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDITIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 211556
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
956 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS WAVE WAS ENHANCING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH SHOWERS DECREASING FROM SW
TO NW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE SHOWERS /SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 6500 FEET/ WILL
PERSIST IN THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY IS
MINIMAL...BUT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE TREASURE
VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH 18Z...BRINGING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED IFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT KJER...BUT
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG-LASTING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN
THE MTNS WITH MTNS OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS. VFR TONIGHT. SFC
WINDS GENERALLY W 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10 KFT WILL BE W 20-30
KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDITIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 210947
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
347 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDTIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALLEYS LOW END VFR WITH SHOWERS DECREASING AFTER 15Z.
MOUNTAINS WIDESPREAD MTNS OBSCURED AREAS MVFR CIG AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ABOVE 6500 FT AREAS IFR SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS...IMPROVING
AFTER 03Z. PATCHY IFR FOG EARLY WED...ALSO AFFECTING KMYL 10-15Z
WED. VFR PARTLY SUNNY AFTER 18Z WED. SURFACE WINDS NW AVERAGE
10-20 KTS...GUSTS TO 35KTS KTWF/KJER. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT UP TO
10KTS AFTER 06Z. WINDS ALOFT SW TO NW 20 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....VM





000
FXUS65 KBOI 210947
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
347 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDTIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALLEYS LOW END VFR WITH SHOWERS DECREASING AFTER 15Z.
MOUNTAINS WIDESPREAD MTNS OBSCURED AREAS MVFR CIG AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ABOVE 6500 FT AREAS IFR SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS...IMPROVING
AFTER 03Z. PATCHY IFR FOG EARLY WED...ALSO AFFECTING KMYL 10-15Z
WED. VFR PARTLY SUNNY AFTER 18Z WED. SURFACE WINDS NW AVERAGE
10-20 KTS...GUSTS TO 35KTS KTWF/KJER. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT UP TO
10KTS AFTER 06Z. WINDS ALOFT SW TO NW 20 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....VM




000
FXUS65 KBOI 210305
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
905 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CA
THIS EVENING WAS SEEN BEST IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS. THE
18Z AND EARLY 00Z MODELS HAVE THE POSITION OF THE LOW WELL
INITIALIZED AND ARE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS FORECAST TRACK
AND TIMING FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL ID IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND GIVEN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COULD EVEN SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
MTNS. PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM SE OREGON INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS.
THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF THE
LOW WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL AND
BOISE MTNS. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON FRINGE
OF THE BEST DYNAMICS SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER.
WILL MAKE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z
WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z...
EXCEPT SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO S 5-15 KTS
BECOMING W 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW UP TO 25 KTS BECOMING W UP TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL SWING ENE OVERNIGHT AND
PASS OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 06Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE A COLD SEASON SYSTEM...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SW IDAHO BETWEEN DAWN
AND NOON. WINDS WITH THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30
KTS...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 KTS. WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIR...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS WED
RISING RIGHT BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE WED THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO ERN OREGON FROM THE SW AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS ALONG EXTREME NW HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BAKER COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW...PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO AND IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND
SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DETAILS. FOR NOW...NEAR CLIMO POPS REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH





000
FXUS65 KBOI 210305
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
905 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CA
THIS EVENING WAS SEEN BEST IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS. THE
18Z AND EARLY 00Z MODELS HAVE THE POSITION OF THE LOW WELL
INITIALIZED AND ARE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS FORECAST TRACK
AND TIMING FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL ID IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND GIVEN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COULD EVEN SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
MTNS. PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM SE OREGON INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS.
THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF THE
LOW WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL AND
BOISE MTNS. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON FRINGE
OF THE BEST DYNAMICS SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER.
WILL MAKE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z
WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z...
EXCEPT SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO S 5-15 KTS
BECOMING W 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW UP TO 25 KTS BECOMING W UP TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL SWING ENE OVERNIGHT AND
PASS OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 06Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE A COLD SEASON SYSTEM...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SW IDAHO BETWEEN DAWN
AND NOON. WINDS WITH THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30
KTS...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 KTS. WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIR...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS WED
RISING RIGHT BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE WED THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO ERN OREGON FROM THE SW AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS ALONG EXTREME NW HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BAKER COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW...PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO AND IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND
SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DETAILS. FOR NOW...NEAR CLIMO POPS REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 210305
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
905 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CA
THIS EVENING WAS SEEN BEST IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS. THE
18Z AND EARLY 00Z MODELS HAVE THE POSITION OF THE LOW WELL
INITIALIZED AND ARE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS FORECAST TRACK
AND TIMING FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL ID IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND GIVEN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COULD EVEN SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
MTNS. PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM SE OREGON INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS.
THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF THE
LOW WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL AND
BOISE MTNS. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON FRINGE
OF THE BEST DYNAMICS SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER.
WILL MAKE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z
WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z...
EXCEPT SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO S 5-15 KTS
BECOMING W 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW UP TO 25 KTS BECOMING W UP TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL SWING ENE OVERNIGHT AND
PASS OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 06Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE A COLD SEASON SYSTEM...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SW IDAHO BETWEEN DAWN
AND NOON. WINDS WITH THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30
KTS...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 KTS. WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIR...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS WED
RISING RIGHT BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE WED THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO ERN OREGON FROM THE SW AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS ALONG EXTREME NW HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BAKER COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW...PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO AND IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND
SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DETAILS. FOR NOW...NEAR CLIMO POPS REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH





000
FXUS65 KBOI 210305
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
905 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CA
THIS EVENING WAS SEEN BEST IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS. THE
18Z AND EARLY 00Z MODELS HAVE THE POSITION OF THE LOW WELL
INITIALIZED AND ARE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS FORECAST TRACK
AND TIMING FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL ID IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND GIVEN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COULD EVEN SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
MTNS. PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM SE OREGON INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS.
THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF THE
LOW WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL AND
BOISE MTNS. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON FRINGE
OF THE BEST DYNAMICS SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER.
WILL MAKE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z
WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z...
EXCEPT SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO S 5-15 KTS
BECOMING W 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW UP TO 25 KTS BECOMING W UP TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL SWING ENE OVERNIGHT AND
PASS OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 06Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE A COLD SEASON SYSTEM...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SW IDAHO BETWEEN DAWN
AND NOON. WINDS WITH THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30
KTS...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 KTS. WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIR...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS WED
RISING RIGHT BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE WED THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO ERN OREGON FROM THE SW AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS ALONG EXTREME NW HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BAKER COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW...PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO AND IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND
SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DETAILS. FOR NOW...NEAR CLIMO POPS REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 202046
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
246 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL SWING ENE OVERNIGHT AND
PASS OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 06Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE A COLD SEASON SYSTEM...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SW IDAHO BETWEEN DAWN
AND NOON. WINDS WITH THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30
KTS...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 KTS. WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIR...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS WED
RISING RIGHT BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE WED THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO ERN OREGON FROM THE SW AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS ALONG EXTREME NW HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BAKER COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW...PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO AND IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND
SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DETAILS. FOR NOW...NEAR CLIMO POPS REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SW THROUGH SE
AHEAD OF FRONT...THEN...INCREASE AND TURN WNW BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE SSW 25-35KTS AHEAD OF FRONT AND W AT 15-25 KTS BEHIND.
EXPECT RAIN AHEAD OF AND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KMYL. KMYL SHOULD SEE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MVFR WITH BRIEF TIMES OF IFR TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....EP/WH
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 201536
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
936 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS STILL SET TO BE
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...FALLING AROUND 20 DEGREES TO
BECOME 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT...WITH AMOUNTS OF NEAR A QUARTER INCH IN THE VALLEY AND
A HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST WINDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY. UPDATE OUT BY 1030 AM MDT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD
WEST TO EAST. ISOLATED IFR CIGS TOMORROW IN SHOWERS. SFC WINDS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT 10-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SE OREGON TONIGHT
AND SW IDAHO TOMORROW BY NOON...SWITCHING WINDS TO WEST TO
NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN SE OREGON
ESPECIALLY NEAR KBNO AND KBKE. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SW 20-25 KTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST 20-30 KTS TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....VM





000
FXUS65 KBOI 201536
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
936 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS STILL SET TO BE
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...FALLING AROUND 20 DEGREES TO
BECOME 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT...WITH AMOUNTS OF NEAR A QUARTER INCH IN THE VALLEY AND
A HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST WINDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY. UPDATE OUT BY 1030 AM MDT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD
WEST TO EAST. ISOLATED IFR CIGS TOMORROW IN SHOWERS. SFC WINDS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT 10-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SE OREGON TONIGHT
AND SW IDAHO TOMORROW BY NOON...SWITCHING WINDS TO WEST TO
NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN SE OREGON
ESPECIALLY NEAR KBNO AND KBKE. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SW 20-25 KTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST 20-30 KTS TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....VM




000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST PLACES RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE TUESDAY. SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM
INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST PLACES RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE TUESDAY. SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM
INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST PLACES RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE TUESDAY. SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM
INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST PLACES RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE TUESDAY. SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM
INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 200240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT FOR CLEAR AND MILD
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW FOLLOWING TODAY/S HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS TO NEAR 70 IN THE
MTNS. THE 18Z MODELS REMAIN LOCKED ON FOR TUESDAY/S SYSTEM
BRINGING IT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. NO UPDATES FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON MONDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15-25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION. FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN THE
850-700MB LAYER SHOULD MIX DOWN TO BRING AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS TO
MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY. OTHERWISE ALL MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING
THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN OREGON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHERE THE ECM/GFS
DIVERGE FROM THE NAM IN THAT THE NAM TAKES THE S/W ENHANCED AREA
SEEN ON THE CURRENT IR SAT PICS OFF THE WEST COAST DUE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND INTO UTAH...ECM/GFS CONTINUE THE TREND
OF PUSHING IT INTO NW NEVADA THEN NE INTO CENTRAL IDAHO...THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS/0.10 INCHES/ AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW/ ABV 7000 FEET/ TO THE IDAHO ZONES WITH ONLY
AREAS OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS EASTERN OREGON.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OREGON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AREA EXPECTED. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE FASTER
GFS BRINGING IN A TROUGH FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE ECMWF TIMING OF
LATE SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JS/DD





000
FXUS65 KBOI 200240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT FOR CLEAR AND MILD
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW FOLLOWING TODAY/S HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS TO NEAR 70 IN THE
MTNS. THE 18Z MODELS REMAIN LOCKED ON FOR TUESDAY/S SYSTEM
BRINGING IT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. NO UPDATES FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON MONDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15-25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION. FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN THE
850-700MB LAYER SHOULD MIX DOWN TO BRING AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS TO
MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY. OTHERWISE ALL MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING
THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN OREGON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHERE THE ECM/GFS
DIVERGE FROM THE NAM IN THAT THE NAM TAKES THE S/W ENHANCED AREA
SEEN ON THE CURRENT IR SAT PICS OFF THE WEST COAST DUE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND INTO UTAH...ECM/GFS CONTINUE THE TREND
OF PUSHING IT INTO NW NEVADA THEN NE INTO CENTRAL IDAHO...THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS/0.10 INCHES/ AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW/ ABV 7000 FEET/ TO THE IDAHO ZONES WITH ONLY
AREAS OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS EASTERN OREGON.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OREGON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AREA EXPECTED. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE FASTER
GFS BRINGING IN A TROUGH FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE ECMWF TIMING OF
LATE SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JS/DD




000
FXUS65 KBOI 192033
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
233 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION. FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN THE
850-700MB LAYER SHOULD MIX DOWN TO BRING AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS TO
MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY. OTHERWISE ALL MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING
THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN OREGON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHERE THE ECM/GFS
DIVERGE FROM THE NAM IN THAT THE NAM TAKES THE S/W ENHANCED AREA
SEEN ON THE CURRENT IR SAT PICS OFF THE WEST COAST DUE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND INTO UTAH...ECM/GFS CONTINUE THE TREND
OF PUSHING IT INTO NW NEVADA THEN NE INTO CENTRAL IDAHO...THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS/0.10 INCHES/ AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW/ ABV 7000 FEET/ TO THE IDAHO ZONES WITH ONLY
AREAS OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS EASTERN OREGON.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OREGON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AREA EXPECTED. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE FASTER
GFS BRINGING IN A TROUGH FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE ECMWF TIMING OF
LATE SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT AND SOUTHWEST 10-20KT IN CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 15-25KT. CLOUDS INCREASING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...CR
LONG TERM....JS/DD
AVIATION.....JS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 192033
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
233 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION. FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN THE
850-700MB LAYER SHOULD MIX DOWN TO BRING AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS TO
MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY. OTHERWISE ALL MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING
THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN OREGON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHERE THE ECM/GFS
DIVERGE FROM THE NAM IN THAT THE NAM TAKES THE S/W ENHANCED AREA
SEEN ON THE CURRENT IR SAT PICS OFF THE WEST COAST DUE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND INTO UTAH...ECM/GFS CONTINUE THE TREND
OF PUSHING IT INTO NW NEVADA THEN NE INTO CENTRAL IDAHO...THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS/0.10 INCHES/ AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW/ ABV 7000 FEET/ TO THE IDAHO ZONES WITH ONLY
AREAS OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS EASTERN OREGON.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OREGON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AREA EXPECTED. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE FASTER
GFS BRINGING IN A TROUGH FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE ECMWF TIMING OF
LATE SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT AND SOUTHWEST 10-20KT IN CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 15-25KT. CLOUDS INCREASING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...CR
LONG TERM....JS/DD
AVIATION.....JS





000
FXUS65 KBOI 191453
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
853 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AS A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS WINDS ALOFT IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
EASTERN OREGON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IDAHO
ZONES TUESDAY MORNING. BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS FRONT IS THAT THE
12Z NAM IS SHOWING THIS FRONT SPLITTING AS IT MOVES INTO IDAHO
WITH A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE SIERRAS
DIRECTLY TO SALT LAKE CITY VERSUS THE 06Z RUN LIFTING THAT SHORT
WAVE INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO...SO THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. WONT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE UNTIL THE 12Z NAM AND
ECM MODELS COME IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST 10-20KT IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY...SOUTHWEST 10-
20KT IN CENTRAL OREGON DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET
MSL...SW 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
OVER WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
SUNDAY AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL FAVOR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE MAGIC AND TREASURE
VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OREGON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS MONDAY OPENING THE DOOR FOR
COOLER AIR AND PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
IDAHO SO HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THIS PACKAGE ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER
WHERE THERE IS A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
MORNING. STILL DO EXPECT THAT MANY PLACES WILL GET A ROUND OF
MODERATE SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON
MONDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO EARLY TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL FROM AROUND 10K FT MSL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO AROUND 7K FT MSL
BEHIND THE FRONT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER MOUNTAINS GETTING
UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW TUESDAY MORNING. SEASONALLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING POPS/CLOUDINESS ARE STILL ON TRACK
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY OR
CLEAR SKIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IF THE STRONGER RIDGE AND LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF /AND TO
SOME EXTENT 00Z GEFS/ FORECASTS TURN OUT BETTER THAN THE WEST
COAST TROUGHING SATURDAY/SUNDAY IN THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...CR
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....VM




000
FXUS65 KBOI 191453
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
853 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AS A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS WINDS ALOFT IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
EASTERN OREGON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IDAHO
ZONES TUESDAY MORNING. BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS FRONT IS THAT THE
12Z NAM IS SHOWING THIS FRONT SPLITTING AS IT MOVES INTO IDAHO
WITH A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE SIERRAS
DIRECTLY TO SALT LAKE CITY VERSUS THE 06Z RUN LIFTING THAT SHORT
WAVE INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO...SO THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. WONT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE UNTIL THE 12Z NAM AND
ECM MODELS COME IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST 10-20KT IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY...SOUTHWEST 10-
20KT IN CENTRAL OREGON DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET
MSL...SW 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
OVER WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
SUNDAY AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL FAVOR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE MAGIC AND TREASURE
VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OREGON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS MONDAY OPENING THE DOOR FOR
COOLER AIR AND PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
IDAHO SO HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THIS PACKAGE ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER
WHERE THERE IS A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
MORNING. STILL DO EXPECT THAT MANY PLACES WILL GET A ROUND OF
MODERATE SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON
MONDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO EARLY TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL FROM AROUND 10K FT MSL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO AROUND 7K FT MSL
BEHIND THE FRONT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER MOUNTAINS GETTING
UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW TUESDAY MORNING. SEASONALLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING POPS/CLOUDINESS ARE STILL ON TRACK
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY OR
CLEAR SKIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IF THE STRONGER RIDGE AND LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF /AND TO
SOME EXTENT 00Z GEFS/ FORECASTS TURN OUT BETTER THAN THE WEST
COAST TROUGHING SATURDAY/SUNDAY IN THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...CR
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....VM





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities