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000
FXUS65 KBOI 230949
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
249 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FORCING WILL INDUCE MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WHEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON...INCLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY...BAKER VALLEY...AND LONG VALLEY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND ON RIDGETOPS...
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH MONDAY FOR MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA TROUGH THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THE STRENGTH OF A INVERSION IN THE TREASURE VALLEY WITH THIS RIDGE
IN PLACE AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE REMAINING SNOW
COVER. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
AREAS WHICH LACK SNOW COVER WITH THIS RIDGE. AFTER THURSDAY THE
RIDGE DAMPENS ALLOWING A ARCTIC FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
MOIST FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR-IFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM KBKE-KBOI-KSUN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS
SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...NW 25-35KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 230949
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
249 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FORCING WILL INDUCE MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WHEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON...INCLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY...BAKER VALLEY...AND LONG VALLEY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND ON RIDGETOPS...
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH MONDAY FOR MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA TROUGH THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THE STRENGTH OF A INVERSION IN THE TREASURE VALLEY WITH THIS RIDGE
IN PLACE AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE REMAINING SNOW
COVER. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
AREAS WHICH LACK SNOW COVER WITH THIS RIDGE. AFTER THURSDAY THE
RIDGE DAMPENS ALLOWING A ARCTIC FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
MOIST FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR-IFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM KBKE-KBOI-KSUN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS
SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...NW 25-35KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 230949
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
249 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FORCING WILL INDUCE MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WHEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON...INCLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY...BAKER VALLEY...AND LONG VALLEY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND ON RIDGETOPS...
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH MONDAY FOR MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA TROUGH THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THE STRENGTH OF A INVERSION IN THE TREASURE VALLEY WITH THIS RIDGE
IN PLACE AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE REMAINING SNOW
COVER. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
AREAS WHICH LACK SNOW COVER WITH THIS RIDGE. AFTER THURSDAY THE
RIDGE DAMPENS ALLOWING A ARCTIC FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
MOIST FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR-IFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM KBKE-KBOI-KSUN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS
SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-15KT.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...NW 25-35KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 230326
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
826 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAY GET A
QUICK INCH OR TWO ON GRASSY AREAS ACROSS THE WEST MAGIC VALLEY
SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 32F...SNOW SHOWERS THERE WILL
DECREASE TO SCATTERED FOR TWIN/JEROME BY 11 PM MST. MODERATE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NE OREGON MTNS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF OWYHEE/TWIN FALLS
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND CENTRAL ID MTNS BEYOND SUNDAY
EVENING. POST COLD FRONTAL GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY
AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE 2-4 MB/3HRS ACROSS SW IDAHO THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
NW WINDS TO 10 MPH TO ONTARIO TOWARDS 11 PM BUT SNOW COVER DID NOT
ENTIRELY GO AWAY...SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST LESS THAN 10 MPH
THROUGH SUNDAY...SO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM THE GFS ARE
PREFERRED OVERNIGHT AS THEY CAPTURE THE 35MPH OVER TWIN FALLS AND
CALM TO 10 MPH OVER THE WEISER BASIN AND LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
PREV. NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION....EXPECT SCATTERED MVFR AND LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW
IN THE KTWF/KJER AREA UNTIL ABOUT 06Z. THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY
OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO INCLUDING KMYL WILL SEE SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 18Z.
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE KBOI-KONO 06Z-18Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-
15 KTS EXCEPT 15-20 KTS IN THE KBKE AND KTWF/KJER AREAS UNTIL
ABOUT 06Z. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST UP TO 30 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...HELPING TO SCOUR AWAY MOST OF THE
INVERSION THAT HAS PLAGUED THE TREASURE VALLEY...AND MANY OTHER
SMALLER VALLEYS...THE PAST WEEK OR SO. WE FEEL WEAK INVERSION
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IN THE EXTREME
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
A MODERATE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO MOST
OF THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS THIS EVENING RANGE FROM 4500 FEET IN THE
SOUTH TO 3500 FEET IN THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
DROP TO A RANGE OF 3400 FEET IN THE SOUTH TO 2700 FEET IN THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THIS
EVENING. FOG IS LIKELY IN SHELTERED MTN VALLEYS TONIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE USUAL AREAS NEAR MCCALL... BAKER CITY...AND IN THE
EXTREME LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. WITH MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK RIDGING TOMORROW...SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
MTNS OF SW IDAHO AND NRN BAKER COUNTY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF
MONDAY. THE VALLEYS WILL BE DRY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPS ON
MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
READINGS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO. CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE WESTERN SNAKE RIVER PLAIN SHOULD PROVIDE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS IS WHEN THE INVERSION WILL BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE VALLEY
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON SNOW COVER. AT THE MOMENT...THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR COLDER TEMPS AND INVERSION FOG/STRATUS
BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE INVERSION FORECAST REMAINS LOW.
AFTER FRIDAY THE RIDGE APPEARS TO WEAKEN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/WH





000
FXUS65 KBOI 222144
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
244 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...HELPING TO SCOUR AWAY MOST OF THE
INVERSION THAT HAS PLAGUED THE TREASURE VALLEY...AND MANY OTHER
SMALLER VALLEYS...THE PAST WEEK OR SO. WE FEEL WEAK INVERSION
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IN THE EXTREME
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
A MODERATE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO MOST
OF THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS THIS EVENING RANGE FROM 4500 FEET IN THE
SOUTH TO 3500 FEET IN THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
DROP TO A RANGE OF 3400 FEET IN THE SOUTH TO 2700 FEET IN THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THIS
EVENING. FOG IS LIKELY IN SHELTERED MTN VALLEYS TONIGHT...ALONG
WITH THE USUAL AREAS NEAR MCCALL... BAKER CITY...AND IN THE
EXTREME LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. WITH MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK RIDGING TOMORROW...SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
MTNS OF SW IDAHO AND NRN BAKER COUNTY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF
MONDAY. THE VALLEYS WILL BE DRY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPS ON
MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
READINGS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO. CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE WESTERN SNAKE RIVER PLAIN SHOULD PROVIDE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS IS WHEN THE INVERSION WILL BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE VALLEY
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON SNOW COVER. AT THE MOMENT...THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR COLDER TEMPS AND INVERSION FOG/STRATUS
BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE INVERSION FORECAST REMAINS LOW.
AFTER FRIDAY THE RIDGE APPEARS TO WEAKEN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW VFR. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE NV BORDER WILL
BE EXITING THE AREA BY 23Z. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS SE OREGON AND SHOULD BE INTO SW IDAHO LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW TONIGHT WHILE THE VALLEYS REMAIN AS RAIN. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
EXIT THE REGION BY 06Z. EXPECT PATCHY IFR FOG IN THE VALLEYS AT
KBKE...KMYL AND BETWEEN KONO-KBOI AFTER 09Z SUNDAY. COULD SEE FOG
AT KBOI BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE MOMENT. SURFACE WINDS
NORTHWEST 10-20KT...WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS IN THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT EXCEPT IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WHERE 10-20 KTS IS EXPECTED. WINDS ALOFT
NEAR 10K FEET MSL...NORTHWESTERLY 30-45KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS





000
FXUS65 KBOI 221630
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
930 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST THROUGH SW IDAHO AS OF 9
AM MST...WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SE OREGON. SNOW LEVEL IS
AROUND 5000-6000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SW IDAHO...AND AS HIGH
AS 10000 FEET IN FAR SE OREGON. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING FROM NW TO
SE ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PAST
TWIN FALLS AND OUT OF OUR AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON AT THIS TIME
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINTENSIFICATION OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MORE SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL BACK DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS LATE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND TODAY/S COLD FRONT AND IS REINFORCED BY THE PASSING SHORT
WAVE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SW
IDAHO WILL EXPIRE AT 11 AM MST / 18Z / AND WILL NOT BE EXTENDED.
SO FAR AROUND 7 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN AT BRUNDAGE. WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF OVER 1 INCH OF RAINFALL AT LOWER ELEVATION
SITES WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST OF MOUNTAIN
HOME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WEST OF NAMPA AT 16Z AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KBOI AROUND 17Z AND KTWF AROUND 21Z. SNOW
LEVELS 6K FT MSL NEAR KMYL AND NEAR 10K FT MSL NEAR KREO LOWERING
TO 4K FT MSL WITH COLD FRONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TONIGHT WILL BRING
MORE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEY AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS.
SURFACE WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT THROUGH MAGIC/TREASURE VALLEYS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS
IN SE OREGON SW 15-25KT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY
50- 70KT DECREASING TO NW 30-45KT BY 00Z SUN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN NAMPA AND BAKER CITY AND NORTH INTO THE UPPER WEISER BASIN
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW 32F IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY CENTERED NEAR ONTARIO WITH ONTARIO ASOS REPORTING FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND IF THEY DO...WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE VALLEY ZONES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAIN/CAMAS PRAIRIE ZONES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SE-SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...BUT COOLER
ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH COLD FRONTS
FOLLOWING A STRONG INVERSION EVENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TREND DRIER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL...EXCEPT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
INVERSION CONDITIONS SHOULD REFORM STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE STRENGTH...AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SNOW COVER AND
WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS LOCATED IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER FRIDAY THE
RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
     IDZ011-013-028.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 221630
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
930 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST THROUGH SW IDAHO AS OF 9
AM MST...WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SE OREGON. SNOW LEVEL IS
AROUND 5000-6000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SW IDAHO...AND AS HIGH
AS 10000 FEET IN FAR SE OREGON. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING FROM NW TO
SE ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PAST
TWIN FALLS AND OUT OF OUR AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON AT THIS TIME
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINTENSIFICATION OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MORE SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL BACK DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS LATE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND TODAY/S COLD FRONT AND IS REINFORCED BY THE PASSING SHORT
WAVE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SW
IDAHO WILL EXPIRE AT 11 AM MST / 18Z / AND WILL NOT BE EXTENDED.
SO FAR AROUND 7 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN AT BRUNDAGE. WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF OVER 1 INCH OF RAINFALL AT LOWER ELEVATION
SITES WITHIN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST OF MOUNTAIN
HOME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WEST OF NAMPA AT 16Z AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KBOI AROUND 17Z AND KTWF AROUND 21Z. SNOW
LEVELS 6K FT MSL NEAR KMYL AND NEAR 10K FT MSL NEAR KREO LOWERING
TO 4K FT MSL WITH COLD FRONT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TONIGHT WILL BRING
MORE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEY AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS.
SURFACE WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT THROUGH MAGIC/TREASURE VALLEYS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS
IN SE OREGON SW 15-25KT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY
50- 70KT DECREASING TO NW 30-45KT BY 00Z SUN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN NAMPA AND BAKER CITY AND NORTH INTO THE UPPER WEISER BASIN
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW 32F IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY CENTERED NEAR ONTARIO WITH ONTARIO ASOS REPORTING FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND IF THEY DO...WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE VALLEY ZONES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAIN/CAMAS PRAIRIE ZONES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SE-SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...BUT COOLER
ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH COLD FRONTS
FOLLOWING A STRONG INVERSION EVENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TREND DRIER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL...EXCEPT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
INVERSION CONDITIONS SHOULD REFORM STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE STRENGTH...AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SNOW COVER AND
WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS LOCATED IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER FRIDAY THE
RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
     IDZ011-013-028.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 221032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN NAMPA AND BAKER CITY AND NORTH INTO THE UPPER WEISER BASIN
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW 32F IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY CENTERED NEAR ONTARIO WITH ONTARIO ASOS REPORTING FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND IF THEY DO...WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE VALLEY ZONES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAIN/CAMAS PRAIRIE ZONES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SE-SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...BUT COOLER
ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH COLD FRONTS
FOLLOWING A STRONG INVERSION EVENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TREND DRIER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL...EXCEPT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
INVERSION CONDITIONS SHOULD REFORM STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE STRENGTH...AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SNOW COVER AND
WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS LOCATED IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER FRIDAY THE
RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PATCHY FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
NEAR KONO AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS 5K FT MSL NEAR KMYL
AND NEAR 10K FT MSL NEAR KREO LOWERING TO 4K FT MSL WITH COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KBOI BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z SAT...KTWF BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. SURFACE WINDS
SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT THROUGH MAGIC/TREASURE/BAKER VALLEYS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS
IN SE OREGON SW 15-25KT BECOMING WESTERLY 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 50-70KT LOWERING TO NW
30-45KT BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
     IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 221032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN NAMPA AND BAKER CITY AND NORTH INTO THE UPPER WEISER BASIN
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW 32F IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY CENTERED NEAR ONTARIO WITH ONTARIO ASOS REPORTING FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND IF THEY DO...WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE VALLEY ZONES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAIN/CAMAS PRAIRIE ZONES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SE-SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...BUT COOLER
ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH COLD FRONTS
FOLLOWING A STRONG INVERSION EVENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TREND DRIER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL...EXCEPT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
INVERSION CONDITIONS SHOULD REFORM STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE STRENGTH...AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SNOW COVER AND
WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS LOCATED IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER FRIDAY THE
RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PATCHY FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
NEAR KONO AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS 5K FT MSL NEAR KMYL
AND NEAR 10K FT MSL NEAR KREO LOWERING TO 4K FT MSL WITH COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KBOI BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z SAT...KTWF BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. SURFACE WINDS
SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT THROUGH MAGIC/TREASURE/BAKER VALLEYS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS
IN SE OREGON SW 15-25KT BECOMING WESTERLY 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 50-70KT LOWERING TO NW
30-45KT BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
     IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 221032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN NAMPA AND BAKER CITY AND NORTH INTO THE UPPER WEISER BASIN
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW 32F IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY CENTERED NEAR ONTARIO WITH ONTARIO ASOS REPORTING FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND IF THEY DO...WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE VALLEY ZONES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAIN/CAMAS PRAIRIE ZONES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SE-SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...BUT COOLER
ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH COLD FRONTS
FOLLOWING A STRONG INVERSION EVENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TREND DRIER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL...EXCEPT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
INVERSION CONDITIONS SHOULD REFORM STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE STRENGTH...AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SNOW COVER AND
WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS LOCATED IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER FRIDAY THE
RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PATCHY FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
NEAR KONO AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS 5K FT MSL NEAR KMYL
AND NEAR 10K FT MSL NEAR KREO LOWERING TO 4K FT MSL WITH COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KBOI BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z SAT...KTWF BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. SURFACE WINDS
SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT THROUGH MAGIC/TREASURE/BAKER VALLEYS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS
IN SE OREGON SW 15-25KT BECOMING WESTERLY 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 50-70KT LOWERING TO NW
30-45KT BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
     IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 221032
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN NAMPA AND BAKER CITY AND NORTH INTO THE UPPER WEISER BASIN
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW 32F IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY CENTERED NEAR ONTARIO WITH ONTARIO ASOS REPORTING FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND IF THEY DO...WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE VALLEY ZONES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAIN/CAMAS PRAIRIE ZONES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SE-SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...BUT COOLER
ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH COLD FRONTS
FOLLOWING A STRONG INVERSION EVENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TREND DRIER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL...EXCEPT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
INVERSION CONDITIONS SHOULD REFORM STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE STRENGTH...AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SNOW COVER AND
WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS LOCATED IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER FRIDAY THE
RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PATCHY FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
NEAR KONO AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS 5K FT MSL NEAR KMYL
AND NEAR 10K FT MSL NEAR KREO LOWERING TO 4K FT MSL WITH COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KBOI BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z SAT...KTWF BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. SURFACE WINDS
SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT THROUGH MAGIC/TREASURE/BAKER VALLEYS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS
IN SE OREGON SW 15-25KT BECOMING WESTERLY 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 50-70KT LOWERING TO NW
30-45KT BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
     IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 221030
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN NAMPA AND BAKER CITY AND NORTH INTO THE UPPER WEISER BASIN
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW 32F IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY CENTERED NEAR ONTARIO WITH ONTARIO ASOS REPORTING FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND IF IT DOES...WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE VALLEY ZONES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAIN/CAMAS PRAIRIE ZONES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SE-SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...BUT COOLER
ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH COLD FRONTS
FOLLOWING A STRONG INVERSION EVENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TREND DRIER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL...EXCEPT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
INVERSION CONDITIONS SHOULD REFORM STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE STRENGTH...AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SNOW COVER AND
WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS LOCATED IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER FRIDAY THE
RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PATCHY FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
NEAR KONO AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS 5K FT MSL NEAR KMYL
AND NEAR 10K FT MSL NEAR KREO LOWERING TO 4K FT MSL WITH COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KBOI BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z SAT...KTWF BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. SURFACE WINDS
SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT THROUGH MAGIC/TREASURE/BAKER VALLEYS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS
IN SE OREGON SW 15-25KT BECOMING WESTERLY 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 50-70KT LOWERING TO NW
30-45KT BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
     IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 221030
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN NAMPA AND BAKER CITY AND NORTH INTO THE UPPER WEISER BASIN
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW 32F IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY CENTERED NEAR ONTARIO WITH ONTARIO ASOS REPORTING FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND IF IT DOES...WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE VALLEY ZONES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAIN/CAMAS PRAIRIE ZONES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SE-SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...BUT COOLER
ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH COLD FRONTS
FOLLOWING A STRONG INVERSION EVENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TREND DRIER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL...EXCEPT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
INVERSION CONDITIONS SHOULD REFORM STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE STRENGTH...AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SNOW COVER AND
WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS LOCATED IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER FRIDAY THE
RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PATCHY FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
NEAR KONO AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS 5K FT MSL NEAR KMYL
AND NEAR 10K FT MSL NEAR KREO LOWERING TO 4K FT MSL WITH COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KBOI BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z SAT...KTWF BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. SURFACE WINDS
SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT THROUGH MAGIC/TREASURE/BAKER VALLEYS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS
IN SE OREGON SW 15-25KT BECOMING WESTERLY 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 50-70KT LOWERING TO NW
30-45KT BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
     IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 221030
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN NAMPA AND BAKER CITY AND NORTH INTO THE UPPER WEISER BASIN
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW 32F IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY CENTERED NEAR ONTARIO WITH ONTARIO ASOS REPORTING FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND IF IT DOES...WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE VALLEY ZONES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAIN/CAMAS PRAIRIE ZONES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SE-SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...BUT COOLER
ELSEWHERE...WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH COLD FRONTS
FOLLOWING A STRONG INVERSION EVENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TREND DRIER MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER...RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL...EXCEPT GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
INVERSION CONDITIONS SHOULD REFORM STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE STRENGTH...AS THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SNOW COVER AND
WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS LOCATED IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER FRIDAY THE
RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. PATCHY FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
NEAR KONO AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS 5K FT MSL NEAR KMYL
AND NEAR 10K FT MSL NEAR KREO LOWERING TO 4K FT MSL WITH COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KBOI BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z SAT...KTWF BETWEEN 21Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. SURFACE WINDS
SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT THROUGH MAGIC/TREASURE/BAKER VALLEYS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS
IN SE OREGON SW 15-25KT BECOMING WESTERLY 10-20KT WITH COLD FRONT.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 50-70KT LOWERING TO NW
30-45KT BY 00Z SUN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
     IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 220333 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
833 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE...STRONG 50DBZ ECHOES WITH AN AREA OF PRECIP
WILL MOVE SE ACROSS AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S - KMUO WAS
37 SO MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 5000 FT MSL IS EXPECTED. NO IN CLOUD
LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED EITHER - IT IS JUST INTENSE RAIN. THE NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIP WAS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AND WILL REACH
THE ORE- IDA BORDER AROUND 0030L. WHILE BURNS WAS 36...ROME AND
GRANT COUNTY/JOHN DAY WERE IN THE 40S WITH GUSTY WINDS 30-40 MPH.
ONTARIO WAS 31 WITH FOG DEVELOPING. NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL
PROBABLY PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN IN THE AREA FROM ONTARIO-
FRUITLAND-CALDWELL-PARMA- GREENLEAF FROM AROUND 1 AM TO 3 AM SO
WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FZRA UP FOR NOW. /END
UPDATE/. PRECIPITATION INTENSIFIED ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE OREGON-
IDAHO BORDER THIS EVENING. THIS HAD RESULTED IN COLDER
PRECIPITATION...A WINTRY MIX AND SLICK ROADS. SINCE 7 PM FREEZING
RAIN HAD BEEN REPORTED BY ASOS IN ONTARIO AND TRAINED SPOTTERS
IN/NEAR WEISER. HIGH TEMPS STAYED AT OR BELOW FREEZING TOO -
AROUND ONTARIO. STUBBORN COLD POOL WEST OF NAMPA AND AROUND PARMA
THROUGH CAMBRIDGE WILL LIKELY ERODE AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
RESULTING IN SEVERAL HOURS OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. SO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS UP AGAIN FOR WINTRY TRAVEL /CALDWELL-
ONTARIO AND PARMA-FRUITLAND- WEISER/ WITH UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF
NEW SNOW AND UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY 8 AM SATURDAY. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST
WILL BE OUT BY 845 PM MST.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN KBOI AND KONO UNTIL
AROUND 15Z. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO PASS KBNO AND KBKE
AT 14Z...KMYL AT 15Z...KBOI AT 16Z...AND KTWF/KJER AT 18Z. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BECOME SCATTERED FOLLOWING THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT
TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUING AFTER
18Z. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH 10-20 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST
15-25 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT...WEST UP TO 60 KTS AT 10K
FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD FROM BAKER COUNTY OREGON ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO
AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER STORM HEADED DIRECTLY
INTO THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE WARMED MORE THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND
THIS HAS A DIRECT IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE FOR TONIGHT. WE HAVE
REMOVED ALMOST ALL MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ALONG RT 95 FROM MIDVALE TO COUNCIL... WHERE
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER INITIAL SNOWFALL
AND BEFORE IT TURNS TO ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH CONFIDENCE
NOW SO LOW IN FREEZING RAIN...WE HAVE REMOVED ALL OF THE LOWER
ELEVATION ADVISORIES FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM...INCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY. WE STILL BELIEVE BAKER WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW
AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BUT THAT IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONTINUING THE
ADVISORY. WE IMAGINE THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A
BRIEF TIME IN SOME OF THE ISOLATED VALLEYS IN BAKER COUNTY AS
WELL...BUT IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL RAIN. ELSEWHERE...THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY HAS WARMED TO
AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY ALSO BEGIN AS A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...WE ARE CONFIDENT
THAT THIS...TOO...WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN QUICKLY. THE ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW
ABOVE AROUND 4500 FEET. SNOWFALL MAY EXCEED 24 INCHES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS...BUT MOST AREAS WILL GET 3 TO 9 INCHES. WINDS ON
THE PEAKS IN SE OREGON WILL BE STRONG TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE...AND THIS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. SO ODDLY ENOUGH...EVEN THOUGH A
COLD FRONT IS COMING THROUGH...HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE HIGHER THAN
TODAY FOR THAT AREA. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS DECREASE
TOMORROW. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN PICK
BACK UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES OVER THE AREA IN
NW FLOW. THE VALLEYS MAY SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY BUT DRY CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE ELSE. TUESDAY ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE BUILDING A
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THERE IS NO REAL
CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WILL WAIT FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS
BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION/UPDATE...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 220333 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
833 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE...STRONG 50DBZ ECHOES WITH AN AREA OF PRECIP
WILL MOVE SE ACROSS AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S - KMUO WAS
37 SO MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 5000 FT MSL IS EXPECTED. NO IN CLOUD
LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED EITHER - IT IS JUST INTENSE RAIN. THE NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIP WAS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AND WILL REACH
THE ORE- IDA BORDER AROUND 0030L. WHILE BURNS WAS 36...ROME AND
GRANT COUNTY/JOHN DAY WERE IN THE 40S WITH GUSTY WINDS 30-40 MPH.
ONTARIO WAS 31 WITH FOG DEVELOPING. NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL
PROBABLY PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN IN THE AREA FROM ONTARIO-
FRUITLAND-CALDWELL-PARMA- GREENLEAF FROM AROUND 1 AM TO 3 AM SO
WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FZRA UP FOR NOW. /END
UPDATE/. PRECIPITATION INTENSIFIED ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE OREGON-
IDAHO BORDER THIS EVENING. THIS HAD RESULTED IN COLDER
PRECIPITATION...A WINTRY MIX AND SLICK ROADS. SINCE 7 PM FREEZING
RAIN HAD BEEN REPORTED BY ASOS IN ONTARIO AND TRAINED SPOTTERS
IN/NEAR WEISER. HIGH TEMPS STAYED AT OR BELOW FREEZING TOO -
AROUND ONTARIO. STUBBORN COLD POOL WEST OF NAMPA AND AROUND PARMA
THROUGH CAMBRIDGE WILL LIKELY ERODE AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
RESULTING IN SEVERAL HOURS OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. SO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS UP AGAIN FOR WINTRY TRAVEL /CALDWELL-
ONTARIO AND PARMA-FRUITLAND- WEISER/ WITH UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF
NEW SNOW AND UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY 8 AM SATURDAY. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST
WILL BE OUT BY 845 PM MST.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN KBOI AND KONO UNTIL
AROUND 15Z. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO PASS KBNO AND KBKE
AT 14Z...KMYL AT 15Z...KBOI AT 16Z...AND KTWF/KJER AT 18Z. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BECOME SCATTERED FOLLOWING THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT
TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUING AFTER
18Z. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH 10-20 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST
15-25 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT...WEST UP TO 60 KTS AT 10K
FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD FROM BAKER COUNTY OREGON ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO
AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER STORM HEADED DIRECTLY
INTO THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE WARMED MORE THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND
THIS HAS A DIRECT IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE FOR TONIGHT. WE HAVE
REMOVED ALMOST ALL MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ALONG RT 95 FROM MIDVALE TO COUNCIL... WHERE
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER INITIAL SNOWFALL
AND BEFORE IT TURNS TO ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH CONFIDENCE
NOW SO LOW IN FREEZING RAIN...WE HAVE REMOVED ALL OF THE LOWER
ELEVATION ADVISORIES FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM...INCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY. WE STILL BELIEVE BAKER WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW
AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BUT THAT IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONTINUING THE
ADVISORY. WE IMAGINE THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A
BRIEF TIME IN SOME OF THE ISOLATED VALLEYS IN BAKER COUNTY AS
WELL...BUT IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL RAIN. ELSEWHERE...THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY HAS WARMED TO
AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY ALSO BEGIN AS A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...WE ARE CONFIDENT
THAT THIS...TOO...WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN QUICKLY. THE ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW
ABOVE AROUND 4500 FEET. SNOWFALL MAY EXCEED 24 INCHES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS...BUT MOST AREAS WILL GET 3 TO 9 INCHES. WINDS ON
THE PEAKS IN SE OREGON WILL BE STRONG TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE...AND THIS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. SO ODDLY ENOUGH...EVEN THOUGH A
COLD FRONT IS COMING THROUGH...HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE HIGHER THAN
TODAY FOR THAT AREA. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS DECREASE
TOMORROW. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN PICK
BACK UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES OVER THE AREA IN
NW FLOW. THE VALLEYS MAY SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY BUT DRY CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE ELSE. TUESDAY ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE BUILDING A
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THERE IS NO REAL
CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WILL WAIT FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS
BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION/UPDATE...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH





000
FXUS65 KBOI 220333
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
833 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE
OREGON-IDAHO BORDER THIS EVENING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN COLDER
PRECIPITATION...WINTRY MIX AND SLICK ROADS. SINCE 7 PM FREEZING
RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED BY ASOS IN ONTARIO AND TRAINED SPOTTERS
IN/NEAR WEISER. HIGH TEMPS STAYED AT OR BELOW FREEZING TOO AROUND
ONTARIO. STUBBORN COLD POOL WEST OF NAMPA AND AROUND PARMA
THROUGH CAMBRIDGE WILL LIKELY ERODE AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
RESULTING IN SEVERAL HOURS OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. SO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS UP AGAIN FOR WINTRY TRAVEL /CALDWELL-
ONTARIO AND PARMA-FRUITLAND-WEISER/ WITH UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF
NEW SNOW AND UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY 8 AM SATURDAY. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST
WILL BE OUT BY 845 PM MST.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN KBOI AND KONO UNTIL
AROUND 15Z. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO PASS KBNO AND KBKE
AT 14Z...KMYL AT 15Z...KBOI AT 16Z...AND KTWF/KJER AT 18Z. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BECOME SCATTERED FOLLOWING THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT
TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUING AFTER
18Z. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH 10-20 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST
15-25 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT...WEST UP TO 60 KTS AT 10K
FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD FROM BAKER COUNTY OREGON ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO
AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER STORM HEADED DIRECTLY
INTO THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE WARMED MORE THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND
THIS HAS A DIRECT IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE FOR TONIGHT. WE HAVE
REMOVED ALMOST ALL MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ALONG RT 95 FROM MIDVALE TO COUNCIL... WHERE
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER INITIAL SNOWFALL
AND BEFORE IT TURNS TO ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH CONFIDENCE
NOW SO LOW IN FREEZING RAIN...WE HAVE REMOVED ALL OF THE LOWER
ELEVATION ADVISORIES FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM...INCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY. WE STILL BELIEVE BAKER WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW
AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BUT THAT IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONTINUING THE
ADVISORY. WE IMAGINE THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A
BRIEF TIME IN SOME OF THE ISOLATED VALLEYS IN BAKER COUNTY AS
WELL...BUT IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL RAIN. ELSEWHERE...THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY HAS WARMED TO
AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY ALSO BEGIN AS A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...WE ARE CONFIDENT
THAT THIS...TOO...WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN QUICKLY. THE ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW
ABOVE AROUND 4500 FEET. SNOWFALL MAY EXCEED 24 INCHES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS...BUT MOST AREAS WILL GET 3 TO 9 INCHES. WINDS ON
THE PEAKS IN SE OREGON WILL BE STRONG TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE...AND THIS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. SO ODDLY ENOUGH...EVEN THOUGH A
COLD FRONT IS COMING THROUGH...HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE HIGHER THAN
TODAY FOR THAT AREA. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS DECREASE
TOMORROW. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN PICK
BACK UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES OVER THE AREA IN
NW FLOW. THE VALLEYS MAY SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY BUT DRY CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE ELSE. TUESDAY ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE BUILDING A
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THERE IS NO REAL
CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WILL WAIT FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS
BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 220333
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
833 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE
OREGON-IDAHO BORDER THIS EVENING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN COLDER
PRECIPITATION...WINTRY MIX AND SLICK ROADS. SINCE 7 PM FREEZING
RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED BY ASOS IN ONTARIO AND TRAINED SPOTTERS
IN/NEAR WEISER. HIGH TEMPS STAYED AT OR BELOW FREEZING TOO AROUND
ONTARIO. STUBBORN COLD POOL WEST OF NAMPA AND AROUND PARMA
THROUGH CAMBRIDGE WILL LIKELY ERODE AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
RESULTING IN SEVERAL HOURS OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. SO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS UP AGAIN FOR WINTRY TRAVEL /CALDWELL-
ONTARIO AND PARMA-FRUITLAND-WEISER/ WITH UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF
NEW SNOW AND UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY 8 AM SATURDAY. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST
WILL BE OUT BY 845 PM MST.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN KBOI AND KONO UNTIL
AROUND 15Z. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO PASS KBNO AND KBKE
AT 14Z...KMYL AT 15Z...KBOI AT 16Z...AND KTWF/KJER AT 18Z. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BECOME SCATTERED FOLLOWING THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT
TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUING AFTER
18Z. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH 10-20 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST
15-25 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT...WEST UP TO 60 KTS AT 10K
FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD FROM BAKER COUNTY OREGON ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO
AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER STORM HEADED DIRECTLY
INTO THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE WARMED MORE THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND
THIS HAS A DIRECT IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE FOR TONIGHT. WE HAVE
REMOVED ALMOST ALL MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ALONG RT 95 FROM MIDVALE TO COUNCIL... WHERE
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER INITIAL SNOWFALL
AND BEFORE IT TURNS TO ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH CONFIDENCE
NOW SO LOW IN FREEZING RAIN...WE HAVE REMOVED ALL OF THE LOWER
ELEVATION ADVISORIES FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM...INCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY. WE STILL BELIEVE BAKER WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW
AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BUT THAT IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONTINUING THE
ADVISORY. WE IMAGINE THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A
BRIEF TIME IN SOME OF THE ISOLATED VALLEYS IN BAKER COUNTY AS
WELL...BUT IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL RAIN. ELSEWHERE...THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY HAS WARMED TO
AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY ALSO BEGIN AS A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...WE ARE CONFIDENT
THAT THIS...TOO...WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN QUICKLY. THE ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW
ABOVE AROUND 4500 FEET. SNOWFALL MAY EXCEED 24 INCHES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS...BUT MOST AREAS WILL GET 3 TO 9 INCHES. WINDS ON
THE PEAKS IN SE OREGON WILL BE STRONG TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE...AND THIS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. SO ODDLY ENOUGH...EVEN THOUGH A
COLD FRONT IS COMING THROUGH...HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE HIGHER THAN
TODAY FOR THAT AREA. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS DECREASE
TOMORROW. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN PICK
BACK UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES OVER THE AREA IN
NW FLOW. THE VALLEYS MAY SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY BUT DRY CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE ELSE. TUESDAY ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE BUILDING A
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THERE IS NO REAL
CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WILL WAIT FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS
BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ012-033.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ011-013-028.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH





000
FXUS65 KBOI 212201
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
301 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINTER STORM HEADED
DIRECTLY INTO THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE WARMED MORE THAN EXPECTED
TODAY...AND THIS HAS A DIRECT IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE FOR TONIGHT.
WE HAVE REMOVED ALMOST ALL MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ALONG RT 95 FROM MIDVALE TO COUNCIL...
WHERE THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER INITIAL
SNOWFALL AND BEFORE IT TURNS TO ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH
CONFIDENCE NOW SO LOW IN FREEZING RAIN...WE HAVE REMOVED ALL OF
THE LOWER ELEVATION ADVISORIES FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM...INCLUDING
BAKER COUNTY. WE STILL BELIEVE BAKER WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH OF
SNOW AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BUT THAT IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONTINUING THE
ADVISORY. WE IMAGINE THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A
BRIEF TIME IN SOME OF THE ISOLATED VALLEYS IN BAKER COUNTY AS
WELL...BUT IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL RAIN. ELSEWHERE...THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY HAS WARMED TO
AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY ALSO BEGIN AS A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...WE ARE CONFIDENT
THAT THIS...TOO...WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN QUICKLY. THE ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW
ABOVE AROUND 4500 FEET. SNOWFALL MAY EXCEED 24 INCHES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS...BUT MOST AREAS WILL GET 3 TO 9 INCHES. WINDS ON
THE PEAKS IN SE OREGON WILL BE STRONG TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE...AND THIS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. SO ODDLY ENOUGH...EVEN THOUGH A
COLD FRONT IS COMING THROUGH...HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE HIGHER THAN
TODAY FOR THAT AREA. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS DECREASE
TOMORROW. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN PICK
BACK UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES OVER THE AREA IN
NW FLOW. THE VALLEYS MAY SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY BUT DRY CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE ELSE. TUESDAY ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE BUILDING A
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THERE IS NO REAL
CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WILL WAIT FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS
BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER LOWER
ELEVATIONS HAVE GONE ABOVE FREEZING SO THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN
HAS BEEN GREATLY REDUCED. SNOW LEVEL AROUND 4500 FEET MSL. AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED
ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS SOUTH OF A KBNO-KTWF LINE.

SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE DECREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS SATURDAY WILL BECOME WESTERLY 15 TO 20
KNOTS...GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS SOUTH OF A KBNO-KJER LINE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
     SATURDAY IDZ011-013-028.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 211705
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1005 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...STILL LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WE ARE
BEGINNING TO SEE EVIDENCE THAT INDICATES FREEZING RAIN MAY COVER A
SMALLER AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL LARGELY DICTATE WHERE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR
OVERNIGHT. BOISE IS ALREADY UP TO 30 DEGREES...WITH ONTARIO UP TO
26 AS OF 10 AM MST. WILL LIKELY ISSUE NEW HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IN AN UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING. MOUNTAIN FORECAST
APPEARS SOLID...LOTS OF SNOW COMING ABOVE AROUND 5000 FEET. FOR
THE BOISE METRO AREA...WE ARE NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAIN FALLING ON ROADS THAT ARE STILL COVERED
BY PACKED ICE FROM LAST WEEK/S SNOW WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS FROM KBOI TO KONO
IMPROVING AFTER 19Z.  ELSEWHERE VALLEY FOG WILL BE ISOLATED WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 19Z.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE SNOW WITH
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...BUT MAINLY RAIN WILL FALL BELOW
4000 FT MSL. FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF
WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE.  SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...NEXT NORTH PACIFIC STORM WILL COME INTO OUR CWA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THIS STORM IS RELATIVELY STRONG AND WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 4000
FEET MSL AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE LOWER VALLEYS.  WARM FRONT
WILL COME IN THIS EVENING AND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW LATE
SATURDAY.  THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO NEAR 5000 FEET MSL BY
SATURDAY MORNING.  SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY AND ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER IN THE UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY...AND FREEZING RAIN
WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW IN THE COLDER PARTS OF THE UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE LATE AFTERNOON
COMMUTING PERIOD TODAY MAY BE SPARED THESE PROBLEMS AS THE PCPN
SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 6 PM MST.  MEANWHILE...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE 4 TO
8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO HAVE LOCAL FREEZING
RAIN BUT THE MAIN WEATHER IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SNOW. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE BEING POSTED FOR THE ZONES LISTED BELOW.
LATER SATURDAY THE STORM/S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING
ENOUGH WIND TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL TURN COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE THE VALLEYS
SHOULD GET WARM ENOUGH TO MELT SOME SNOW FROM LAST WEEK/S STORM.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RISE
ABOUT TEN DEGREES IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN OTHER ZONES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN COLD MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE A
A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3000 FEET MSL. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST BEGINS TO BUILD. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM AND CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME INVERTED ESPECIALLY IF THE VALLEYS ARE SNOW-COVERED
FROM THE SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY
WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND WEDNESDAY
AS THERE IS NO CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE MODELS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     SATURDAY IDZ014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
     SATURDAY IDZ011>013-028-029-033.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
     SATURDAY ORZ064.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ SATURDAY ORZ062-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 211705
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1005 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...STILL LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WE ARE
BEGINNING TO SEE EVIDENCE THAT INDICATES FREEZING RAIN MAY COVER A
SMALLER AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL LARGELY DICTATE WHERE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR
OVERNIGHT. BOISE IS ALREADY UP TO 30 DEGREES...WITH ONTARIO UP TO
26 AS OF 10 AM MST. WILL LIKELY ISSUE NEW HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IN AN UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING. MOUNTAIN FORECAST
APPEARS SOLID...LOTS OF SNOW COMING ABOVE AROUND 5000 FEET. FOR
THE BOISE METRO AREA...WE ARE NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAIN FALLING ON ROADS THAT ARE STILL COVERED
BY PACKED ICE FROM LAST WEEK/S SNOW WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS FROM KBOI TO KONO
IMPROVING AFTER 19Z.  ELSEWHERE VALLEY FOG WILL BE ISOLATED WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 19Z.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE SNOW WITH
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...BUT MAINLY RAIN WILL FALL BELOW
4000 FT MSL. FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF
WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE.  SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...NEXT NORTH PACIFIC STORM WILL COME INTO OUR CWA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THIS STORM IS RELATIVELY STRONG AND WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 4000
FEET MSL AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE LOWER VALLEYS.  WARM FRONT
WILL COME IN THIS EVENING AND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW LATE
SATURDAY.  THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO NEAR 5000 FEET MSL BY
SATURDAY MORNING.  SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY AND ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER IN THE UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY...AND FREEZING RAIN
WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW IN THE COLDER PARTS OF THE UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE LATE AFTERNOON
COMMUTING PERIOD TODAY MAY BE SPARED THESE PROBLEMS AS THE PCPN
SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 6 PM MST.  MEANWHILE...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE 4 TO
8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO HAVE LOCAL FREEZING
RAIN BUT THE MAIN WEATHER IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SNOW. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE BEING POSTED FOR THE ZONES LISTED BELOW.
LATER SATURDAY THE STORM/S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING
ENOUGH WIND TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL TURN COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE THE VALLEYS
SHOULD GET WARM ENOUGH TO MELT SOME SNOW FROM LAST WEEK/S STORM.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RISE
ABOUT TEN DEGREES IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN OTHER ZONES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN COLD MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE A
A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3000 FEET MSL. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST BEGINS TO BUILD. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM AND CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME INVERTED ESPECIALLY IF THE VALLEYS ARE SNOW-COVERED
FROM THE SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY
WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND WEDNESDAY
AS THERE IS NO CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE MODELS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     SATURDAY IDZ014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
     SATURDAY IDZ011>013-028-029-033.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
     SATURDAY ORZ064.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ SATURDAY ORZ062-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 211026
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
326 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...NEXT NORTH PACIFIC STORM WILL COME INTO OUR CWA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THIS STORM IS RELATIVELY STRONG AND WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 4000
FEET MSL AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE LOWER VALLEYS.  WARM FRONT
WILL COME IN THIS EVENING AND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW LATE
SATURDAY.  THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO NEAR 5000 FEET MSL BY
SATURDAY MORNING.  SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY AND ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER IN THE UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY...AND FREEZING RAIN
WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW IN THE COLDER PARTS OF THE UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE LATE AFTERNOON
COMMUTING PERIOD TODAY MAY BE SPARED THESE PROBLEMS AS THE PCPN
SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 6 PM MST.  MEANWHILE...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE 4 TO
8 INMCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.  LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO HAVE LOCAL FREEZING
RAIN BUT THE MAIN WEATHER IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SNOW.  WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE BEING POSTED FOR THE ZONES LISTED BELOW.
LATER SATURDAY THE STORM/S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING
ENOUGH WIND TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR IN THE VALLEYS.  HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL TURN COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE THE VALLEYS
SHOULD GET WARM ENOUGH TO MELT SOME SNOW FROM LAST WEEK/S STORM.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY.  TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING.  HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RISE ABOUT
TEN DEGREES IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
IN OTHER ZONES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN COLD MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE A
A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3000 FEET MSL. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST BEGINS TO BUILD. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM AND CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME INVERTED ESPECIALLY IF THE VALLEYS ARE SNOW-COVERED
FROM THE SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY
WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND WEDNESDAY
AS THERE IS NO CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR-LIFR FOG AND STRATUS
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND SNAKE RIVER BASIN. PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD ACROSS SE OREGON AROUND 00Z SAT AND SW IDAHO BY 03Z WITH
MOUNTAINS BECOMING OBSCURED. -FZRA EXPECTED AT KBOI KONO KEUL
CHANGING TO -RA SOME TIME SAT MORNING. FREEZING LEVELS WILL RISE TO
AROUND 7000FT MSL SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 4000
FEET MSL SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THROUGH FRI 21Z.
SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO SW 20-30KT IN SOUTHEAST OREGON BY 06Z
SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 15-25KT BECOMING WESTERLY
35-65KT BY SAT 06Z...STRONGEST IN OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     SATURDAY IDZ014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
     SATURDAY IDZ011>013-028-029-033.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 AM MST
     SATURDAY ORZ064.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ SATURDAY ORZ062-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 211026
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
326 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...NEXT NORTH PACIFIC STORM WILL COME INTO OUR CWA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THIS STORM IS RELATIVELY STRONG AND WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 4000
FEET MSL AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE LOWER VALLEYS.  WARM FRONT
WILL COME IN THIS EVENING AND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW LATE
SATURDAY.  THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO NEAR 5000 FEET MSL BY
SATURDAY MORNING.  SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY AND ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER IN THE UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN FOR THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY...AND FREEZING RAIN
WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW IN THE COLDER PARTS OF THE UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE LATE AFTERNOON
COMMUTING PERIOD TODAY MAY BE SPARED THESE PROBLEMS AS THE PCPN
SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 6 PM MST.  MEANWHILE...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE 4 TO
8 INMCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.  LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO HAVE LOCAL FREEZING
RAIN BUT THE MAIN WEATHER IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SNOW.  WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE BEING POSTED FOR THE ZONES LISTED BELOW.
LATER SATURDAY THE STORM/S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING
ENOUGH WIND TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR IN THE VALLEYS.  HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL TURN COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE THE VALLEYS
SHOULD GET WARM ENOUGH TO MELT SOME SNOW FROM LAST WEEK/S STORM.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY.  TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING.  HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RISE ABOUT
TEN DEGREES IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
IN OTHER ZONES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING THE REGION IN COLD MOIST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE A
A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3000 FEET MSL. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST BEGINS TO BUILD. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM AND CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME INVERTED ESPECIALLY IF THE VALLEYS ARE SNOW-COVERED
FROM THE SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY
WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND WEDNESDAY
AS THERE IS NO CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR-LIFR FOG AND STRATUS
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND SNAKE RIVER BASIN. PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD ACROSS SE OREGON AROUND 00Z SAT AND SW IDAHO BY 03Z WITH
MOUNTAINS BECOMING OBSCURED. -FZRA EXPECTED AT KBOI KONO KEUL
CHANGING TO -RA SOME TIME SAT MORNING. FREEZING LEVELS WILL RISE TO
AROUND 7000FT MSL SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 4000
FEET MSL SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THROUGH FRI 21Z.
SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO SW 20-30KT IN SOUTHEAST OREGON BY 06Z
SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 15-25KT BECOMING WESTERLY
35-65KT BY SAT 06Z...STRONGEST IN OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     SATURDAY IDZ014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
     SATURDAY IDZ011>013-028-029-033.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 AM MST
     SATURDAY ORZ064.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ SATURDAY ORZ062-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 210340
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS SHOWING ELONGATED
TROUGH ENTERING THE PAC NW. HAVE SEEN SOME ENHANCEMENT ON IR SAT
PICS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. BEST
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN HARNEY
AND MALHEUR COUNTIES THIS EVENING. PROBABILITIES DECREASE TO THE
NORTH BUT GIVEN THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER IN THE LOWER VALLEY
INVERSIONS DO THINK FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES...ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM CURRENT TEMPS WILL BE MINIMAL
OVER SE OREGON AND MUCH OF SW ID /WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY...CAMAS
PRAIRIE AND EASTERN BOISE MTNS THE EXCEPTION/. THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WILL ALSO KEEP DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN
VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS FROM KBOI TO KONO IMPROVING AFTER 18Z.
ELSEWHERE VALLEY FOG WILL BE PATCHY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND
BROKEN MID LEVEL CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE SNOW WITH
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...BUT MAINLY RAIN WILL FALL BELOW
4000 FT MSL. FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
ON THE WAY FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN. INVERSION WEAKENING AND EVEN BREAKING IN THE
LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY ARE IN THE 40S WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR
FREEZING IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A SPLIT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION. MUCH OF THE
ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BUT THE
WEAKER NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE MIN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. NEXT
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY AND INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO EARLY SATURDAY. BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS /10-20 KTS/ SHOULD INCREASED MIXING WHICH SHOULD
BREAK MUCH OF THE INVERSION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BELOW 5000 FEET. BASED ON THE
CURRENT WARMING TREND AND 12Z KBOI SOUNDING THIS FORECAST SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING RAIN EARLY
SATURDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY WHERE THE
REMAINING COLD AIR COULD BE TRAPPED. OTHERWISE...THE VALLEY WILL
SEE UP TO FOUR TENTHS OF INCH OF RAIN. THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL SEE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE
MOUNTAIN PEAKS SEEING CLOSE TO A FOOT OF NEW SNOW. NO HEADLINES
YET WITH THE MOUNTAIN SNOW TOTALS JUST OVER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEY
WITH SATURDAY EXPECTED TO REACH 40 DEGREES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  DECREASING
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MOVES SOUTHEAST OF IDAHO.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW KEEPING SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY
MONDAY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST BUT WILL KEEP A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.  MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION FOR
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
INFLUENCED BY A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY /MOSTLY IN THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS/ MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....JA/AB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 210340
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS SHOWING ELONGATED
TROUGH ENTERING THE PAC NW. HAVE SEEN SOME ENHANCEMENT ON IR SAT
PICS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. BEST
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN HARNEY
AND MALHEUR COUNTIES THIS EVENING. PROBABILITIES DECREASE TO THE
NORTH BUT GIVEN THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER IN THE LOWER VALLEY
INVERSIONS DO THINK FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES...ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM CURRENT TEMPS WILL BE MINIMAL
OVER SE OREGON AND MUCH OF SW ID /WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY...CAMAS
PRAIRIE AND EASTERN BOISE MTNS THE EXCEPTION/. THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WILL ALSO KEEP DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN
VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS FROM KBOI TO KONO IMPROVING AFTER 18Z.
ELSEWHERE VALLEY FOG WILL BE PATCHY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND
BROKEN MID LEVEL CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE SNOW WITH
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...BUT MAINLY RAIN WILL FALL BELOW
4000 FT MSL. FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
ON THE WAY FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN. INVERSION WEAKENING AND EVEN BREAKING IN THE
LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY ARE IN THE 40S WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR
FREEZING IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A SPLIT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION. MUCH OF THE
ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BUT THE
WEAKER NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE MIN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. NEXT
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY AND INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO EARLY SATURDAY. BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS /10-20 KTS/ SHOULD INCREASED MIXING WHICH SHOULD
BREAK MUCH OF THE INVERSION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BELOW 5000 FEET. BASED ON THE
CURRENT WARMING TREND AND 12Z KBOI SOUNDING THIS FORECAST SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING RAIN EARLY
SATURDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY WHERE THE
REMAINING COLD AIR COULD BE TRAPPED. OTHERWISE...THE VALLEY WILL
SEE UP TO FOUR TENTHS OF INCH OF RAIN. THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL SEE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE
MOUNTAIN PEAKS SEEING CLOSE TO A FOOT OF NEW SNOW. NO HEADLINES
YET WITH THE MOUNTAIN SNOW TOTALS JUST OVER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEY
WITH SATURDAY EXPECTED TO REACH 40 DEGREES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  DECREASING
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MOVES SOUTHEAST OF IDAHO.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW KEEPING SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY
MONDAY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST BUT WILL KEEP A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.  MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION FOR
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
INFLUENCED BY A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY /MOSTLY IN THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS/ MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....JA/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 210340
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS SHOWING ELONGATED
TROUGH ENTERING THE PAC NW. HAVE SEEN SOME ENHANCEMENT ON IR SAT
PICS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. BEST
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN HARNEY
AND MALHEUR COUNTIES THIS EVENING. PROBABILITIES DECREASE TO THE
NORTH BUT GIVEN THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER IN THE LOWER VALLEY
INVERSIONS DO THINK FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES...ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM CURRENT TEMPS WILL BE MINIMAL
OVER SE OREGON AND MUCH OF SW ID /WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY...CAMAS
PRAIRIE AND EASTERN BOISE MTNS THE EXCEPTION/. THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WILL ALSO KEEP DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN
VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS FROM KBOI TO KONO IMPROVING AFTER 18Z.
ELSEWHERE VALLEY FOG WILL BE PATCHY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND
BROKEN MID LEVEL CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE SNOW WITH
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...BUT MAINLY RAIN WILL FALL BELOW
4000 FT MSL. FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
ON THE WAY FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN. INVERSION WEAKENING AND EVEN BREAKING IN THE
LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY ARE IN THE 40S WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR
FREEZING IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A SPLIT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION. MUCH OF THE
ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BUT THE
WEAKER NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE MIN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. NEXT
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY AND INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO EARLY SATURDAY. BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS /10-20 KTS/ SHOULD INCREASED MIXING WHICH SHOULD
BREAK MUCH OF THE INVERSION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BELOW 5000 FEET. BASED ON THE
CURRENT WARMING TREND AND 12Z KBOI SOUNDING THIS FORECAST SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING RAIN EARLY
SATURDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY WHERE THE
REMAINING COLD AIR COULD BE TRAPPED. OTHERWISE...THE VALLEY WILL
SEE UP TO FOUR TENTHS OF INCH OF RAIN. THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL SEE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE
MOUNTAIN PEAKS SEEING CLOSE TO A FOOT OF NEW SNOW. NO HEADLINES
YET WITH THE MOUNTAIN SNOW TOTALS JUST OVER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEY
WITH SATURDAY EXPECTED TO REACH 40 DEGREES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  DECREASING
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MOVES SOUTHEAST OF IDAHO.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW KEEPING SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY
MONDAY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST BUT WILL KEEP A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.  MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION FOR
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
INFLUENCED BY A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY /MOSTLY IN THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS/ MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....JA/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 210340
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS SHOWING ELONGATED
TROUGH ENTERING THE PAC NW. HAVE SEEN SOME ENHANCEMENT ON IR SAT
PICS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. BEST
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN HARNEY
AND MALHEUR COUNTIES THIS EVENING. PROBABILITIES DECREASE TO THE
NORTH BUT GIVEN THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER IN THE LOWER VALLEY
INVERSIONS DO THINK FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES...ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM CURRENT TEMPS WILL BE MINIMAL
OVER SE OREGON AND MUCH OF SW ID /WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY...CAMAS
PRAIRIE AND EASTERN BOISE MTNS THE EXCEPTION/. THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WILL ALSO KEEP DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN
VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS FROM KBOI TO KONO IMPROVING AFTER 18Z.
ELSEWHERE VALLEY FOG WILL BE PATCHY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND
BROKEN MID LEVEL CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE SNOW WITH
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...BUT MAINLY RAIN WILL FALL BELOW
4000 FT MSL. FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
ON THE WAY FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN. INVERSION WEAKENING AND EVEN BREAKING IN THE
LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY ARE IN THE 40S WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR
FREEZING IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A SPLIT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION. MUCH OF THE
ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BUT THE
WEAKER NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE MIN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. NEXT
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY AND INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO EARLY SATURDAY. BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS /10-20 KTS/ SHOULD INCREASED MIXING WHICH SHOULD
BREAK MUCH OF THE INVERSION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BELOW 5000 FEET. BASED ON THE
CURRENT WARMING TREND AND 12Z KBOI SOUNDING THIS FORECAST SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING RAIN EARLY
SATURDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY WHERE THE
REMAINING COLD AIR COULD BE TRAPPED. OTHERWISE...THE VALLEY WILL
SEE UP TO FOUR TENTHS OF INCH OF RAIN. THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL SEE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE
MOUNTAIN PEAKS SEEING CLOSE TO A FOOT OF NEW SNOW. NO HEADLINES
YET WITH THE MOUNTAIN SNOW TOTALS JUST OVER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEY
WITH SATURDAY EXPECTED TO REACH 40 DEGREES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  DECREASING
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MOVES SOUTHEAST OF IDAHO.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW KEEPING SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY
MONDAY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST BUT WILL KEEP A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.  MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION FOR
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
INFLUENCED BY A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY /MOSTLY IN THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS/ MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....JA/AB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 202139
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
239 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
ON THE WAY FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN. INVERSION WEAKENING AND EVEN BREAKING IN THE
LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY ARE IN THE 40S WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR
FREEZING IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A SPLIT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION. MUCH OF THE
ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BUT THE
WEAKER NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE MIN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. NEXT
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY AND INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO EARLY SATURDAY. BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS /10-20 KTS/ SHOULD INCREASED MIXING WHICH SHOULD
BREAK MUCH OF THE INVERSION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BELOW 5000 FEET. BASED ON THE
CURRENT WARMING TREND AND 12Z KBOI SOUNDING THIS FORECAST SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING RAIN EARLY
SATURDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY WHERE THE
REMAINING COLD AIR COULD BE TRAPPED. OTHERWISE...THE VALLEY WILL
SEE UP TO FOUR TENTHS OF INCH OF RAIN. THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL SEE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE
MOUNTAIN PEAKS SEEING CLOSE TO A FOOT OF NEW SNOW. NO HEADLINES
YET WITH THE MOUNTAIN SNOW TOTALS JUST OVER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEY
WITH SATURDAY EXPECTED TO REACH 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  DECREASING
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MOVES SOUTHEAST OF IDAHO.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW KEEPING SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY
MONDAY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST BUT WILL KEEP A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.  MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION FOR
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
INFLUENCED BY A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY /MOSTLY IN THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS/ MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH BROKEN MID LEVEL CEILINGS.  SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF FOG WILL REDEVELOP IN SOME VALLEYS
TONIGHT...BUT SOME LOWER VALLEYS STILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO HAZE AND FOG AND
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY.  HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE SNOW BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS.  AT THIS
TIME THINKING IS THAT LOWER VALLEYS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN...BUT COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  CAN
EXPECT MOUNTAINS TO BECOME OBSCURED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND
AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...INVERSION WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY
AND BREAK SATURDAY MORNING. A PACIFIC STORM IS EXPECTED TO COME
INLAND SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PLENTY OF MIXING
WHICH SHOULD SCOUR THE INVERSION AND GREATLY IMPROVE AIR QUALITY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JA/AB
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 202139
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
239 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS
ON THE WAY FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN. INVERSION WEAKENING AND EVEN BREAKING IN THE
LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY ARE IN THE 40S WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR
FREEZING IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A SPLIT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION. MUCH OF THE
ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BUT THE
WEAKER NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE MIN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. NEXT
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY AND INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO EARLY SATURDAY. BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS /10-20 KTS/ SHOULD INCREASED MIXING WHICH SHOULD
BREAK MUCH OF THE INVERSION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BELOW 5000 FEET. BASED ON THE
CURRENT WARMING TREND AND 12Z KBOI SOUNDING THIS FORECAST SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING RAIN EARLY
SATURDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY WHERE THE
REMAINING COLD AIR COULD BE TRAPPED. OTHERWISE...THE VALLEY WILL
SEE UP TO FOUR TENTHS OF INCH OF RAIN. THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL SEE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE
MOUNTAIN PEAKS SEEING CLOSE TO A FOOT OF NEW SNOW. NO HEADLINES
YET WITH THE MOUNTAIN SNOW TOTALS JUST OVER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEY
WITH SATURDAY EXPECTED TO REACH 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  DECREASING
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MOVES SOUTHEAST OF IDAHO.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW KEEPING SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY
MONDAY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST BUT WILL KEEP A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.  MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION FOR
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
INFLUENCED BY A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY /MOSTLY IN THE WEST
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS/ MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT A BIT BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH BROKEN MID LEVEL CEILINGS.  SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF FOG WILL REDEVELOP IN SOME VALLEYS
TONIGHT...BUT SOME LOWER VALLEYS STILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO HAZE AND FOG AND
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY.  HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE SNOW BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS.  AT THIS
TIME THINKING IS THAT LOWER VALLEYS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN...BUT COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  CAN
EXPECT MOUNTAINS TO BECOME OBSCURED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND
AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...INVERSION WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY
AND BREAK SATURDAY MORNING. A PACIFIC STORM IS EXPECTED TO COME
INLAND SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PLENTY OF MIXING
WHICH SHOULD SCOUR THE INVERSION AND GREATLY IMPROVE AIR QUALITY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JA/AB
AVIATION.....JA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 201730
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1030 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING AS
THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. LIGHT
SLEET...SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE
VALLEY THIS MORNING. EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A SPLIT
TROUGH MOVES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SE OREGON HAS A
CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAIN
FOCUS IS ON THE NEXT WINTER STORM FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE 6 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...THE LOWER VALLEY
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS IN QUESTION. HOW MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
UNDER THE INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
STARTS AROUND MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. NO UPDATES NEED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THIS
AFTERNOON AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.  OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
VALLEYS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND FOG.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
AND LOCAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO OREGON ZONES AND OWYHEE COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING NE.  SWRN IDAHO WILL GET A LITTLE
SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
LESS THAN A HALF IN THE VALLEYS...MAINLY THIS MORNING.  SYSTEM
IS TOO WEAK TO SCOUR THE SURFACE INVERSION BUT TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN ALL AREAS.  PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ABOVE THE SNOW SURFACE SO TONIGHT
WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE CURRENT NIGHT.  MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL BE LIKE THOSE OF TODAY WITH THE INVERSION CONTINUING.  CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG PACIFIC STORM COMES
INLAND.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM IS
STILL POISED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THE EVENT BEGINNING AS SNOW IN MOST AREAS WITH THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS
IN SE OREGON SEEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING FROM WEST TO
EAST MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MIX THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND BREAK THE TREASURE VALLEY INVERSION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS QUICK MIXING...THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
EXIST IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE NOON SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING TO RAIN
AFTER NOON. FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN HAVE BEEN
LOWERED GIVEN THE CHANCE THAT A FREEZING RAIN EVENT MAY HINDER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BUT GIVEN THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE SITUATION...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW UNTIL
THE PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER. SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE AREA TRANSITIONS INTO A
NORTHWEST FLOW.


SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
THE AREA REMAINING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH. THE IMPACT AND TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS NOT
CERTAIN...SO HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.  CHANCE POPS
REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 201730
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1030 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING AS
THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. LIGHT
SLEET...SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE
VALLEY THIS MORNING. EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A SPLIT
TROUGH MOVES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SE OREGON HAS A
CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAIN
FOCUS IS ON THE NEXT WINTER STORM FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE 6 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...THE LOWER VALLEY
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS IN QUESTION. HOW MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
UNDER THE INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
STARTS AROUND MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. NO UPDATES NEED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THIS
AFTERNOON AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.  OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
VALLEYS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND FOG.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
AND LOCAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO OREGON ZONES AND OWYHEE COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING NE.  SWRN IDAHO WILL GET A LITTLE
SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
LESS THAN A HALF IN THE VALLEYS...MAINLY THIS MORNING.  SYSTEM
IS TOO WEAK TO SCOUR THE SURFACE INVERSION BUT TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN ALL AREAS.  PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ABOVE THE SNOW SURFACE SO TONIGHT
WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE CURRENT NIGHT.  MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL BE LIKE THOSE OF TODAY WITH THE INVERSION CONTINUING.  CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG PACIFIC STORM COMES
INLAND.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM IS
STILL POISED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THE EVENT BEGINNING AS SNOW IN MOST AREAS WITH THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS
IN SE OREGON SEEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING FROM WEST TO
EAST MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MIX THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND BREAK THE TREASURE VALLEY INVERSION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS QUICK MIXING...THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
EXIST IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE NOON SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING TO RAIN
AFTER NOON. FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN HAVE BEEN
LOWERED GIVEN THE CHANCE THAT A FREEZING RAIN EVENT MAY HINDER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BUT GIVEN THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE SITUATION...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW UNTIL
THE PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER. SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE AREA TRANSITIONS INTO A
NORTHWEST FLOW.


SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
THE AREA REMAINING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH. THE IMPACT AND TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS NOT
CERTAIN...SO HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.  CHANCE POPS
REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP





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