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000
FXUS65 KBOI 180240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...WARM UNDER THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SRN TWIN
FALLS COUNTY. LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS INSIST THAT SHOWERS WILL
FORM OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SE OREGON.
ALREADY SEEING ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUD AND SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH TO MAKE IT SOMEWHAT BELIEVABLE. THEREFORE
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE
THE FRONT MAY BE EVEN WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OWING TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SLOWER TIMING. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS POINTING AT A BARELY NOTICEABLE FROPA AFTER AROUND 12Z
IN SE OREGON AND INTO THE AFTERNOON IN SW IDAHO. A SECOND...STRONGER
FRONT APPEARS HEADED IN THU NIGHT. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS. AFTER 06Z FOR
SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND AFTER 09Z FOR SOUTHEAST OREGON...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH
GUSTY WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE APPROACHING FORECAST HIGHS DESPITE
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM UPPER TROUGH OFF THE OREGON COAST. A
LOW HAS FORMED IN THE TROUGH NEAR 39/130 WHICH WILL HELP SPLIT THE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND THURSDAY.  THE LOW ITSELF WILL GO DOWN THE
CALIF COAST THU AND FRI WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
SHEARS EAST INTO MONTANA...LEAVING OUR CWA IN THE COL BETWEEN THEM.
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
OUR OREGON ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND IN IDAHO ZONES THURSDAY.  MAIN
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT
MENTION TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE.  HOWEVER A BETTER CHANCE WILL EXIST
IN SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY AND SERN OWYHEE COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE ENTRAINED FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL
STORM ODILE IN ARIZONA.  MODELS HAVE SURPRISINGLY LITTLE INSTABILITY
ON OUR NRN BORDER THURSDAY EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
NEARBY.  DRYING FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.  MAX TEMPS
THURSDAY WILL COOL 8-10 DEGREES FROM TODAY WITH A FEW DEGREES
FURTHER COOLING OF BOTH MIN AND MAX TEMPS FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TO BE DRY AND MILD. HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 5 ABOVE
NORMAL. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OR SUNNY. THIS IS DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY ABOUT 2000 MILES WSW OF BOISE...THAT
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK ACROSS THE PACNW AND EVENTUALLY
SPREADS TO INTERIOR SW CANADA AS WELL FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS LEAVES
OUR AREA OPEN TO INFLUENCE /MOISTURE INSTABILITY AND LIFT/ FROM THE
UPPER LOW MEANDERING FROM OUR W TO S IN THE SHORT TERM. PREFER A
GEFS/EC/GFS BLEND. SO THE LOW NOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NNE TO THE NV-
ID BORDER SUNDAY MORNING AND ACROSS SW- TO S-CENTRAL IDAHO SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY RESPECTIVELY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM THE CUTOFF LOW. MODELS AGREE THAT A TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE
NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING AROUND A HALF
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF SE OREGON/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/
BOISE MOUNTAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT...BRINGING US TO JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ636.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....VM/AB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 180240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...WARM UNDER THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SRN TWIN
FALLS COUNTY. LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS INSIST THAT SHOWERS WILL
FORM OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SE OREGON.
ALREADY SEEING ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUD AND SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH TO MAKE IT SOMEWHAT BELIEVABLE. THEREFORE
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE
THE FRONT MAY BE EVEN WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OWING TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SLOWER TIMING. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS POINTING AT A BARELY NOTICEABLE FROPA AFTER AROUND 12Z
IN SE OREGON AND INTO THE AFTERNOON IN SW IDAHO. A SECOND...STRONGER
FRONT APPEARS HEADED IN THU NIGHT. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS. AFTER 06Z FOR
SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND AFTER 09Z FOR SOUTHEAST OREGON...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH
GUSTY WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE APPROACHING FORECAST HIGHS DESPITE
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM UPPER TROUGH OFF THE OREGON COAST. A
LOW HAS FORMED IN THE TROUGH NEAR 39/130 WHICH WILL HELP SPLIT THE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND THURSDAY.  THE LOW ITSELF WILL GO DOWN THE
CALIF COAST THU AND FRI WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
SHEARS EAST INTO MONTANA...LEAVING OUR CWA IN THE COL BETWEEN THEM.
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
OUR OREGON ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND IN IDAHO ZONES THURSDAY.  MAIN
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT
MENTION TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE.  HOWEVER A BETTER CHANCE WILL EXIST
IN SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY AND SERN OWYHEE COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE ENTRAINED FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL
STORM ODILE IN ARIZONA.  MODELS HAVE SURPRISINGLY LITTLE INSTABILITY
ON OUR NRN BORDER THURSDAY EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
NEARBY.  DRYING FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.  MAX TEMPS
THURSDAY WILL COOL 8-10 DEGREES FROM TODAY WITH A FEW DEGREES
FURTHER COOLING OF BOTH MIN AND MAX TEMPS FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TO BE DRY AND MILD. HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 5 ABOVE
NORMAL. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OR SUNNY. THIS IS DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY ABOUT 2000 MILES WSW OF BOISE...THAT
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK ACROSS THE PACNW AND EVENTUALLY
SPREADS TO INTERIOR SW CANADA AS WELL FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS LEAVES
OUR AREA OPEN TO INFLUENCE /MOISTURE INSTABILITY AND LIFT/ FROM THE
UPPER LOW MEANDERING FROM OUR W TO S IN THE SHORT TERM. PREFER A
GEFS/EC/GFS BLEND. SO THE LOW NOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NNE TO THE NV-
ID BORDER SUNDAY MORNING AND ACROSS SW- TO S-CENTRAL IDAHO SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY RESPECTIVELY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM THE CUTOFF LOW. MODELS AGREE THAT A TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE
NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING AROUND A HALF
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF SE OREGON/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/
BOISE MOUNTAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT...BRINGING US TO JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ636.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....VM/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 172040
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
240 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE APPROACHING FORECAST HIGHS DESPITE
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM UPPER TROUGH OFF THE OREGON COAST. A
LOW HAS FORMED IN THE TROUGH NEAR 39/130 WHICH WILL HELP SPLIT THE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND THURSDAY.  THE LOW ITSELF WILL GO DOWN THE
CALIF COAST THU AND FRI WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
SHEARS EAST INTO MONTANA...LEAVING OUR CWA IN THE COL BETWEEN THEM.
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
OUR OREGON ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND IN IDAHO ZONES THURSDAY.  MAIN
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT
MENTION TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE.  HOWEVER A BETTER CHANCE WILL EXIST
IN SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY AND SERN OWYHEE COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE ENTRAINED FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL
STORM ODILE IN ARIZONA.  MODELS HAVE SURPRISINGLY LITTLE INSTABILITY
ON OUR NRN BORDER THURSDAY EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
NEARBY.  DRYING FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.  MAX TEMPS
THURSDAY WILL COOL 8-10 DEGREES FROM TODAY WITH A FEW DEGREES
FURTHER COOLING OF BOTH MIN AND MAX TEMPS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TO BE DRY AND MILD. HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 5 ABOVE
NORMAL. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OR SUNNY. THIS IS DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY ABOUT 2000 MILES WSW OF BOISE...THAT
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK ACROSS THE PACNW AND EVENTUALLY
SPREADS TO INTERIOR SW CANADA AS WELL FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS LEAVES
OUR AREA OPEN TO INFLUENCE /MOISTURE INSTABILITY AND LIFT/ FROM THE
UPPER LOW MEANDERING FROM OUR W TO S IN THE SHORT TERM. PREFER A
GEFS/EC/GFS BLEND. SO THE LOW NOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NNE TO THE NV-
ID BORDER SUNDAY MORNING AND ACROSS SW- TO S-CENTRAL IDAHO SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY RESPECTIVELY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM THE CUTOFF LOW. MODELS AGREE THAT A TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE
NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING AROUND A HALF
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF SE OREGON/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/
BOISE MOUNTAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT...BRINGING US TO JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z BUT STILL MOSTLY
VFR. VFR HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXCEPT IN THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
IDAHO MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE BKN MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY OVER IDAHO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH AREAS OF MTN PEAKS OBSCURED WITH
OREGON AND IDAHO VALLEYS GETTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS STRONGEST OVER OREGON UNTIL SUNSET FROM THE SW 20-30
KTS THEN SW TO W 15-25 KTS. IDAHO SURFACE WINDS SOUTH TO WEST 10-15
KTS SHIFTING TO W AND NW 10-20 KTS THURSDAY. WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING FROM
SW TO WEST 25-35 KTS.

$$

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....VM/AB
AVIATION.....VM





000
FXUS65 KBOI 172040
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
240 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE APPROACHING FORECAST HIGHS DESPITE
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM UPPER TROUGH OFF THE OREGON COAST. A
LOW HAS FORMED IN THE TROUGH NEAR 39/130 WHICH WILL HELP SPLIT THE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND THURSDAY.  THE LOW ITSELF WILL GO DOWN THE
CALIF COAST THU AND FRI WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
SHEARS EAST INTO MONTANA...LEAVING OUR CWA IN THE COL BETWEEN THEM.
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
OUR OREGON ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND IN IDAHO ZONES THURSDAY.  MAIN
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT
MENTION TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE.  HOWEVER A BETTER CHANCE WILL EXIST
IN SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY AND SERN OWYHEE COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE ENTRAINED FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL
STORM ODILE IN ARIZONA.  MODELS HAVE SURPRISINGLY LITTLE INSTABILITY
ON OUR NRN BORDER THURSDAY EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
NEARBY.  DRYING FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.  MAX TEMPS
THURSDAY WILL COOL 8-10 DEGREES FROM TODAY WITH A FEW DEGREES
FURTHER COOLING OF BOTH MIN AND MAX TEMPS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TO BE DRY AND MILD. HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 5 ABOVE
NORMAL. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OR SUNNY. THIS IS DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY ABOUT 2000 MILES WSW OF BOISE...THAT
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK ACROSS THE PACNW AND EVENTUALLY
SPREADS TO INTERIOR SW CANADA AS WELL FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS LEAVES
OUR AREA OPEN TO INFLUENCE /MOISTURE INSTABILITY AND LIFT/ FROM THE
UPPER LOW MEANDERING FROM OUR W TO S IN THE SHORT TERM. PREFER A
GEFS/EC/GFS BLEND. SO THE LOW NOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NNE TO THE NV-
ID BORDER SUNDAY MORNING AND ACROSS SW- TO S-CENTRAL IDAHO SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY RESPECTIVELY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM THE CUTOFF LOW. MODELS AGREE THAT A TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE
NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE IN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING AROUND A HALF
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF SE OREGON/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/
BOISE MOUNTAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT...BRINGING US TO JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z BUT STILL MOSTLY
VFR. VFR HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING EXCEPT IN THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
IDAHO MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE BKN MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY OVER IDAHO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH AREAS OF MTN PEAKS OBSCURED WITH
OREGON AND IDAHO VALLEYS GETTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS STRONGEST OVER OREGON UNTIL SUNSET FROM THE SW 20-30
KTS THEN SW TO W 15-25 KTS. IDAHO SURFACE WINDS SOUTH TO WEST 10-15
KTS SHIFTING TO W AND NW 10-20 KTS THURSDAY. WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING FROM
SW TO WEST 25-35 KTS.

$$

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....VM/AB
AVIATION.....VM




000
FXUS65 KBOI 171553
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
953 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...A LIGHTNING STRIKE OCCURRED IN THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS
AROUND SUNRISE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY THERE.  MODELS HOWEVER
HAVE ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.  HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST OF
OUR CWA AND KEPT NIGHTTIME TEMPS MILD AGAIN...AND MAY TAKE A COUPLE
DEGS OFF MAX TEMPS TODAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO UPDATE FOR THAT.  WE DID
UPDATE SKY GRIDS BUT LEFT TEMPERATURE GRIDS ALONE.  MODELS ALSO
STILL ENTRAIN SMOE OF ODILE/S TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DRAW IT INTO
OUR ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGHEST
POPS ARE LOCATED THERE.  MEANWHILE...PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE COAST.  TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF A LOW WHEN IT
REACHES THE SRN OREGON COAST THU.  FROM THERE THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE DUE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY TURN BACK TOWARD
OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY...QUITE DIFFERENT FROM EARLIER SOLUTIONS
WHICH HAD A BIG UPPER RIDGE AND HOT WX OVER OUR AREA AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 09Z...OREGON VFR HIGH CLOUDS WITH SURFACE WINDS SW 15-25KTS
UP TO 35 KTS AT 10K FT THROUGH 09Z. IDAHO...MOSTLY VFR WITH BKN-OVC
MID CLODUS AOA 15K FT MSL AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER 09Z THROUGHOUT BKN-OVC 12-15K FT MSL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AREAS OF MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AND LOCAL
MVFR IN PRECIPITATION. SURFACE WINDS SOUTH TO WEST 10-15KTS SHIFTING
TO W AND NW 10-20KTS THURSDAY. WINDS ALOFT SW TO WEST 25-35KTS.

$$

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. MOISTURE AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN BOISE MTNS TODAY. AIRMASS REMAINS WARM AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ELEVATED TERRAIN ACROSS SE OREGON AND MTNS
OF SW IDAHO WILL TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND SEE GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW REACHES THE NORTHER CALIF COAST
AND A JET MAX TRACKS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CA COAST. DRIER CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES PULL BACK FROM
NEAR RECORD HIGHS AFTER TODAY...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHFRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SPLIT AND CUT OFF FROM THE JET STREAM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS HAPPENS THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BECOME SITUATED IN THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
CUT OFF LOW WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND PULL IN
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY
SUNDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL
EXIT OUR REGION BY TUESDAY AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR DRIER CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND
TUESDAY IS LOW AS THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND THE GFS BUILDS A RIDGE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....VM
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 171553
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
953 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...A LIGHTNING STRIKE OCCURRED IN THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS
AROUND SUNRISE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY THERE.  MODELS HOWEVER
HAVE ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.  HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST OF
OUR CWA AND KEPT NIGHTTIME TEMPS MILD AGAIN...AND MAY TAKE A COUPLE
DEGS OFF MAX TEMPS TODAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO UPDATE FOR THAT.  WE DID
UPDATE SKY GRIDS BUT LEFT TEMPERATURE GRIDS ALONE.  MODELS ALSO
STILL ENTRAIN SMOE OF ODILE/S TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DRAW IT INTO
OUR ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGHEST
POPS ARE LOCATED THERE.  MEANWHILE...PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE COAST.  TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF A LOW WHEN IT
REACHES THE SRN OREGON COAST THU.  FROM THERE THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE DUE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY TURN BACK TOWARD
OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY...QUITE DIFFERENT FROM EARLIER SOLUTIONS
WHICH HAD A BIG UPPER RIDGE AND HOT WX OVER OUR AREA AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 09Z...OREGON VFR HIGH CLOUDS WITH SURFACE WINDS SW 15-25KTS
UP TO 35 KTS AT 10K FT THROUGH 09Z. IDAHO...MOSTLY VFR WITH BKN-OVC
MID CLODUS AOA 15K FT MSL AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER 09Z THROUGHOUT BKN-OVC 12-15K FT MSL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AREAS OF MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AND LOCAL
MVFR IN PRECIPITATION. SURFACE WINDS SOUTH TO WEST 10-15KTS SHIFTING
TO W AND NW 10-20KTS THURSDAY. WINDS ALOFT SW TO WEST 25-35KTS.

$$

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. MOISTURE AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN BOISE MTNS TODAY. AIRMASS REMAINS WARM AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ELEVATED TERRAIN ACROSS SE OREGON AND MTNS
OF SW IDAHO WILL TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND SEE GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW REACHES THE NORTHER CALIF COAST
AND A JET MAX TRACKS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CA COAST. DRIER CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES PULL BACK FROM
NEAR RECORD HIGHS AFTER TODAY...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHFRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SPLIT AND CUT OFF FROM THE JET STREAM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS HAPPENS THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BECOME SITUATED IN THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
CUT OFF LOW WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND PULL IN
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY
SUNDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL
EXIT OUR REGION BY TUESDAY AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR DRIER CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND
TUESDAY IS LOW AS THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND THE GFS BUILDS A RIDGE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....VM
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 170947
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
347 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. MOISTURE
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN BOISE MTNS TODAY. AIRMASS REMAINS
WARM AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ELEVATED
TERRAIN ACROSS SE OREGON AND MTNS OF SW IDAHO WILL TAP INTO THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND SEE GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW WORKS REACHES THE NORMAL COAST AND PRECEDING JET MAX TRACKS
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND
SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CA COAST. DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AS
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES PULL BACK FROM NEAR
RECORD HIGHS AFTER TODAY...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SPLIT AND CUT OFF FROM THE JET STREAM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS HAPPENS THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BECOME SITUATED IN THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
CUT OFF LOW WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND PULL IN
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY
SUNDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL
EXIT OUR REGION BY TUESDAY AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR DRIER CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND
TUESDAY IS LOW AS THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND THE GFS BUILDS RIDGE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS. WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. GUSTY SW SURFACE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OREGON WITH SPEEDS TO 25 KTS. SW
WINDS ALOFT TO 30KTS THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....DG




000
FXUS65 KBOI 170947
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
347 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. MOISTURE
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN BOISE MTNS TODAY. AIRMASS REMAINS
WARM AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ELEVATED
TERRAIN ACROSS SE OREGON AND MTNS OF SW IDAHO WILL TAP INTO THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND SEE GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW WORKS REACHES THE NORMAL COAST AND PRECEDING JET MAX TRACKS
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND
SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CA COAST. DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AS
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES PULL BACK FROM NEAR
RECORD HIGHS AFTER TODAY...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SPLIT AND CUT OFF FROM THE JET STREAM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS HAPPENS THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BECOME SITUATED IN THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
CUT OFF LOW WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND PULL IN
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY
SUNDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL
EXIT OUR REGION BY TUESDAY AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR DRIER CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND
TUESDAY IS LOW AS THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND THE GFS BUILDS RIDGE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS. WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. GUSTY SW SURFACE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OREGON WITH SPEEDS TO 25 KTS. SW
WINDS ALOFT TO 30KTS THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....DG





000
FXUS65 KBOI 170258
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
858 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY STABLE AIR HAS MOVED INTO
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS EVENING...WITH NO
INDICATION OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WERE STARTING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON AHEAD OF A
PACIFIC TROUGH SITUATED WELL OFF THE WEST COAST. SO...FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO BE ON THE
INCREASE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST ACROSS SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF SE OREGON
FOR DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. HOWEVER...RECORDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TIED OR BROKEN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.  SMOKE LAYERS MAY REDEVELOP DUE TO FIRES
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON.  EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
BY MORNING DUE TO THE RECENT RAIN.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE SOUTHWEST IDAHO WINDS WILL
BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...THIS MORNING/S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS NEARLY EXITED
OUR CWA TO THE NORTHEAST BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IN ERN VALLEY COUNTY/ID.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH OVER THE INTERIOR WRN U.S WITH HOT WX AGAIN
WEDNESDAY.  RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE EAST AND UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST
WILL COME ONSHORE.  SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OREGON ZONES
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND IDAHO ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  FRONT WILL
BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH ONLY MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ENTRAIN SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
DISSIPATING HURRICANE ODILE IN ARIZ AND MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL IN OUR
ERN-MOST ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  SPLITTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD THURSDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS AND DECREASING
POPS IN OUR ZONES.  CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN ERN-MOST
MOUNTAIN ZONES IN IDAHO THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER OREGON THURSDAY EVENING WILL
BE SLOW TO EXIT FAR S CENTRAL IDAHO LATE FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED ACROSS THE VALLEYS. UPPER LEVEL /FOLD OVER
TYPE/ RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.  THEN THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE EAST.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS
IT BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....VM/AB





000
FXUS65 KBOI 170258
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
858 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY STABLE AIR HAS MOVED INTO
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS EVENING...WITH NO
INDICATION OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WERE STARTING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON AHEAD OF A
PACIFIC TROUGH SITUATED WELL OFF THE WEST COAST. SO...FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO BE ON THE
INCREASE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST ACROSS SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF SE OREGON
FOR DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. HOWEVER...RECORDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TIED OR BROKEN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.  SMOKE LAYERS MAY REDEVELOP DUE TO FIRES
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON.  EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
BY MORNING DUE TO THE RECENT RAIN.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE SOUTHWEST IDAHO WINDS WILL
BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...THIS MORNING/S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS NEARLY EXITED
OUR CWA TO THE NORTHEAST BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IN ERN VALLEY COUNTY/ID.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH OVER THE INTERIOR WRN U.S WITH HOT WX AGAIN
WEDNESDAY.  RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE EAST AND UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST
WILL COME ONSHORE.  SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OREGON ZONES
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND IDAHO ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  FRONT WILL
BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH ONLY MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ENTRAIN SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
DISSIPATING HURRICANE ODILE IN ARIZ AND MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL IN OUR
ERN-MOST ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  SPLITTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD THURSDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS AND DECREASING
POPS IN OUR ZONES.  CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN ERN-MOST
MOUNTAIN ZONES IN IDAHO THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER OREGON THURSDAY EVENING WILL
BE SLOW TO EXIT FAR S CENTRAL IDAHO LATE FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED ACROSS THE VALLEYS. UPPER LEVEL /FOLD OVER
TYPE/ RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.  THEN THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE EAST.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS
IT BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....VM/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 162020
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
220 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS MORNING/S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS NEARLY EXITED
OUR CWA TO THE NORTHEAST BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IN ERN VALLEY COUNTY/ID.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH OVER THE INTERIOR WRN U.S WITH HOT WX AGAIN
WEDNESDAY.  RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE EAST AND UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST
WILL COME ONSHORE.  SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OREGON ZONES
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND IDAHO ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  FRONT WILL
BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH ONLY MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ENTRAIN SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
DISSIPATING HURRICANE ODILE IN ARIZ AND MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL IN OUR
ERN-MOST ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  SPLITTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD THURSDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS AND DECREASING
POPS IN OUR ZONES.  CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN ERN-MOST
MOUNTAIN ZONES IN IDAHO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER OREGON THURSDAY EVENING WILL
BE SLOW TO EXIT FAR S CENTRAL IDAHO LATE FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED ACROSS THE VALLEYS. UPPER LEVEL /FOLD OVER
TYPE/ RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.  THEN THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE EAST.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 5-10 DEGREEES ABOVE NORMAL AND CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS
IT BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 5-10
DEGREEES ABOVE NORMAL AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

$$

.AVIATION...VFR SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 15K FT MSL NORTHEAST OF BOISE
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MOVING IN FROM OREGON AROUND 06Z REACHING
IDAHO 09-12Z. CLEAR PERIOD WILL PROBABLY NOT HAVE ENOUGH HUMIDITY
FOR FOG DUE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS DRYING OUT THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BUT WITH RAIN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING PATCHY FOG/
STRATUS CAN/T TOTALLY BE RULED OUT.  SMOKE LAYERS MAY REDEVELOP
FROM UPWIND FIRES ACROSS NORTHEN CALIFORNIA AND SWRN OREGON. WINDS
...FROM THE SW 10-15 KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON UNTIL 06Z AND AGAIN
AFTER 18Z..OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS UP TO 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST
UP TO 20 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....VM/AB
AVIATION.....VM




000
FXUS65 KBOI 161520
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
920 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE MORE NUMEROUS THAN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT IN MALHEUR COUNTY AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY BUT
HAVE NEARLY ENDED...THE ONLY REMAINING LIGHTNING AT 9 AM MDT
WAS IN VALLEY AND BOISE COUNTIES IN IDAHO...MOVING NORTHEAST.
DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OVER OUR
AREA WILL BRING CLEARING AND HOT WEATHER AGAIN DAY TODAY AND
ALSO ON WEDNESDAY.  OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED
BY ABOUT TEN DEGS COOLING COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.  THE FRONT MAY
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE
WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE MAY GET ENTRAINED.  CURRENT
FORECAST DESCRIBES TRENDS WELL...NO UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING THEN WIDESPREAD VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. BKN-OVC 12-15K MSL EAST OF A LINE FROM KBKE-KREO. ALSO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MTNS OBSCD CIGS
BKN 040 AGL MAINLY EAST OF IDAHO CITY UNTIL 18Z. DECREASING CLOUDS
AS BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS SHIFTS EAST OF IDAHO CITY BY 21Z. SMOKE
LAYERS MAY PERSIST. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AFTER 18Z. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 20 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON THIS MORNING PRODUCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FEATURE IS QUICKLY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES AT BOISE WILL
BE CLOSE TO A RECORD HIGH OF 93F. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION AND
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR DOORSTEP BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH BOISE SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3AM THURSDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL CA INTO SOUTHERN NV THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN ID. CONTINUED GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH TOPS OUT 6-9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT WARM AND DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....VM
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....DG





000
FXUS65 KBOI 161520
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
920 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE MORE NUMEROUS THAN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT IN MALHEUR COUNTY AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY BUT
HAVE NEARLY ENDED...THE ONLY REMAINING LIGHTNING AT 9 AM MDT
WAS IN VALLEY AND BOISE COUNTIES IN IDAHO...MOVING NORTHEAST.
DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OVER OUR
AREA WILL BRING CLEARING AND HOT WEATHER AGAIN DAY TODAY AND
ALSO ON WEDNESDAY.  OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED
BY ABOUT TEN DEGS COOLING COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.  THE FRONT MAY
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE
WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE MAY GET ENTRAINED.  CURRENT
FORECAST DESCRIBES TRENDS WELL...NO UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING THEN WIDESPREAD VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. BKN-OVC 12-15K MSL EAST OF A LINE FROM KBKE-KREO. ALSO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MTNS OBSCD CIGS
BKN 040 AGL MAINLY EAST OF IDAHO CITY UNTIL 18Z. DECREASING CLOUDS
AS BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS SHIFTS EAST OF IDAHO CITY BY 21Z. SMOKE
LAYERS MAY PERSIST. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AFTER 18Z. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 20 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON THIS MORNING PRODUCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FEATURE IS QUICKLY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES AT BOISE WILL
BE CLOSE TO A RECORD HIGH OF 93F. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION AND
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR DOORSTEP BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH BOISE SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3AM THURSDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL CA INTO SOUTHERN NV THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN ID. CONTINUED GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH TOPS OUT 6-9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT WARM AND DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....VM
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....DG




000
FXUS65 KBOI 160942
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
342 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON THIS MORNING PRODUCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FEATURE IS QUICKLY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES AT BOISE WILL
BE CLOSE TO A RECORD HIGH OF 93F. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION AND
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR DOORSTEP BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH BOISE SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3AM THURSDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL CA INTO SOUTHERN NV THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN ID. CONTINUED GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH TOPS OUT 6-9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT WARM AND DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A KBKE-KONO-
KREO LINE...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE
12KT OR LESS EXCEPT SE OREGON WHERE AFTERNOON SW 5-15KT EXPECTED.
WIND GUSTS TO 25KT IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT
10K FEET MSL...SW 15-25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....DG
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 160942
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
342 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON THIS MORNING PRODUCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FEATURE IS QUICKLY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES AT BOISE WILL
BE CLOSE TO A RECORD HIGH OF 93F. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION AND
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR DOORSTEP BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH BOISE SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3AM THURSDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL CA INTO SOUTHERN NV THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN ID. CONTINUED GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH TOPS OUT 6-9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT WARM AND DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A KBKE-KONO-
KREO LINE...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE
12KT OR LESS EXCEPT SE OREGON WHERE AFTERNOON SW 5-15KT EXPECTED.
WIND GUSTS TO 25KT IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT
10K FEET MSL...SW 15-25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....DG
AVIATION.....KA





000
FXUS65 KBOI 160229
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
829 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS PROVIDING THE LIFT NEEDED
IN AN OTHERWISE MARGINALLY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES. LATEST
RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE IDAHO/OREGON BORDER. NEW MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT WILL LIKELY BYPASS THE BOISE AREA TO
THE WEST. ALSO...EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT SINCE
WE HAVE LOST DAYTIME HEATING...MEANING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY END BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
AND MOVE INTO BAKER COUNTY TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE UPPER WEISER
AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...DRIER STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON. NEAR RECORD HIGH OF 92F
/RECORD IS 93F/ IN BOISE IS STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY. FORECAST
WAS UPDATED EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION IN MALHEUR
COUNTY. FOR NOW...NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LOCAL
SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OREGON UNTIL ABOUT 06Z...AND AFTER 18Z OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS EAST OF KMYL AND IDAHO CITY AND OVER THE HIGHLANDS SOUTH
OF KTWF. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AFTER 18Z. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 25 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INCOMING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO S CENTRAL OREGON AS
WELL AS SOME HIGH BASED CU TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SW
IDAHO. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR WAS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NV. COMPARING A FEW FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS EVENING...SE
OREGON IS LESS FAVORABLE THAN NV FOR THUNDER...DUE TO MINIMAL CAPE
LESS THAN 100 J/KG ACROSS SE OREGON /LKV-BNO/ VERSUS AROUND
200 J/KG AT ELKO. ALSO A /50-200/ CAP WAS NOTED ACROSS SE OREGON.
SO WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE CAP IS WEAKEST AND TREND TO ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER MTNS WELL N AND
W OF BOISE.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO AS TUESDAY
PROGRESSES...LEAVING SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO IN MILD
LOCALLY BREEZY SW FLOW. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH EAST DOWNSLOPE
WINDS FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS AT BOISE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
MOISTURE AND LIGHT SE TO S WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO TO THE FAR NW MAGIC VALLEY.
LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL IDAHO
WARRANTS LOW POPS THERE LATE TUESDAY AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO
LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT COME IN FOR THE
EARLY LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPLIT AND WEAKEN AS IT COMES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SRN
PORTION WILL FORM A WEAK UPPER LOW IN CALIF WHILE NRN PORTION
SHEARS OFF INTO MONTANA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR
ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT COOLING TEMPS 5-10F FOR THU AND FRI BUT EVEN
THEN REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. FROPA WILL ALSO BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO IDAHO
ZONES MAINLY THURSDAY AS A SMALL PART OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
ODILE WILL BE DRAWN NWD FROM ARIZ. NEXT PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE WILL
COME IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WARMING AND DRYING TREND...MIN
TEMPS WARMING MORE SLOWLY THAN MAX TEMPS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....LC/LC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 160229
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
829 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS PROVIDING THE LIFT NEEDED
IN AN OTHERWISE MARGINALLY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES. LATEST
RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE IDAHO/OREGON BORDER. NEW MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT WILL LIKELY BYPASS THE BOISE AREA TO
THE WEST. ALSO...EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT SINCE
WE HAVE LOST DAYTIME HEATING...MEANING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY END BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
AND MOVE INTO BAKER COUNTY TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE UPPER WEISER
AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...DRIER STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON. NEAR RECORD HIGH OF 92F
/RECORD IS 93F/ IN BOISE IS STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY. FORECAST
WAS UPDATED EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION IN MALHEUR
COUNTY. FOR NOW...NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LOCAL
SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OREGON UNTIL ABOUT 06Z...AND AFTER 18Z OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS EAST OF KMYL AND IDAHO CITY AND OVER THE HIGHLANDS SOUTH
OF KTWF. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AFTER 18Z. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 25 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INCOMING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO S CENTRAL OREGON AS
WELL AS SOME HIGH BASED CU TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SW
IDAHO. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR WAS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NV. COMPARING A FEW FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS EVENING...SE
OREGON IS LESS FAVORABLE THAN NV FOR THUNDER...DUE TO MINIMAL CAPE
LESS THAN 100 J/KG ACROSS SE OREGON /LKV-BNO/ VERSUS AROUND
200 J/KG AT ELKO. ALSO A /50-200/ CAP WAS NOTED ACROSS SE OREGON.
SO WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE CAP IS WEAKEST AND TREND TO ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER MTNS WELL N AND
W OF BOISE.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO AS TUESDAY
PROGRESSES...LEAVING SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO IN MILD
LOCALLY BREEZY SW FLOW. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH EAST DOWNSLOPE
WINDS FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS AT BOISE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
MOISTURE AND LIGHT SE TO S WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO TO THE FAR NW MAGIC VALLEY.
LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL IDAHO
WARRANTS LOW POPS THERE LATE TUESDAY AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO
LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT COME IN FOR THE
EARLY LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPLIT AND WEAKEN AS IT COMES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SRN
PORTION WILL FORM A WEAK UPPER LOW IN CALIF WHILE NRN PORTION
SHEARS OFF INTO MONTANA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR
ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT COOLING TEMPS 5-10F FOR THU AND FRI BUT EVEN
THEN REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. FROPA WILL ALSO BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO IDAHO
ZONES MAINLY THURSDAY AS A SMALL PART OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
ODILE WILL BE DRAWN NWD FROM ARIZ. NEXT PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE WILL
COME IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WARMING AND DRYING TREND...MIN
TEMPS WARMING MORE SLOWLY THAN MAX TEMPS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....LC/LC





000
FXUS65 KBOI 152038
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
238 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INCOMING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO S CENTRAL OREGON AS
WELL AS SOME HIGH BASED CU TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SW
IDAHO. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR WAS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NV. COMPARING A FEW FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS EVENING...SE
OREGON IS LESS FAVORABLE THAN NV FOR THUNDER...DUE TO MINIMAL CAPE
LESS THAN 100 J/KG ACROSS SE OREGON /LKV-BNO/ VERSUS AROUND
200 J/KG AT ELKO. ALSO A /50-200/ CAP WAS NOTED ACROSS SE OREGON.
SO WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE CAP IS WEAKEST AND TREND TO ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER MTNS WELL N AND
W OF BOISE.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO AS TUESDAY
PROGRESSES...LEAVING SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO IN MILD
LOCALLY BREEZY SW FLOW. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH EAST DOWNSLOPE
WINDS FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS AT BOISE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
MOISTURE AND LIGHT SE TO S WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO TO THE FAR NW MAGIC VALLEY.
LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL IDAHO
WARRANTS LOW POPS THERE LATE TUESDAY AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO
LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT COME IN FOR THE
EARLY LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPLIT AND WEAKEN AS IT COMES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SRN
PORTION WILL FORM A WEAK UPPER LOW IN CALIF WHILE NRN PORTION
SHEARS OFF INTO MONTANA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR
ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT COOLING TEMPS 5-10F FOR THU AND FRI BUT EVEN
THEN REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. FROPA WILL ALSO BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO IDAHO
ZONES MAINLY THURSDAY AS A SMALL PART OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
ODILE WILL BE DRAWN NWD FROM ARIZ. NEXT PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE WILL
COME IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WARMING AND DRYING TREND...MIN
TEMPS WARMING MORE SLOWLY THAN MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS 12-15K FEET MSL THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH OF KBNO-KRE0-
KTWF.  CLOUDS INCREASING IN OREGON FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO BROKEN-
OVERCAST WITH BASES 12-15K FEET AFTER 00Z...WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/
-TSRA WEST OF KONO-KREO. ALSO SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS
5-15 KTS IN OREGON...LIGHT EASTERLY IN IDAHO. WINDS ALOFT
SOUTHWESTERLY 20-25 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....LC/LC
AVIATION.....LC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 152038
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
238 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INCOMING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO S CENTRAL OREGON AS
WELL AS SOME HIGH BASED CU TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SW
IDAHO. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR WAS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NV. COMPARING A FEW FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS EVENING...SE
OREGON IS LESS FAVORABLE THAN NV FOR THUNDER...DUE TO MINIMAL CAPE
LESS THAN 100 J/KG ACROSS SE OREGON /LKV-BNO/ VERSUS AROUND
200 J/KG AT ELKO. ALSO A /50-200/ CAP WAS NOTED ACROSS SE OREGON.
SO WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE CAP IS WEAKEST AND TREND TO ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER MTNS WELL N AND
W OF BOISE.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO AS TUESDAY
PROGRESSES...LEAVING SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO IN MILD
LOCALLY BREEZY SW FLOW. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH EAST DOWNSLOPE
WINDS FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS AT BOISE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
MOISTURE AND LIGHT SE TO S WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO TO THE FAR NW MAGIC VALLEY.
LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL IDAHO
WARRANTS LOW POPS THERE LATE TUESDAY AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO
LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT COME IN FOR THE
EARLY LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPLIT AND WEAKEN AS IT COMES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SRN
PORTION WILL FORM A WEAK UPPER LOW IN CALIF WHILE NRN PORTION
SHEARS OFF INTO MONTANA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR
ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT COOLING TEMPS 5-10F FOR THU AND FRI BUT EVEN
THEN REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. FROPA WILL ALSO BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO IDAHO
ZONES MAINLY THURSDAY AS A SMALL PART OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
ODILE WILL BE DRAWN NWD FROM ARIZ. NEXT PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE WILL
COME IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WARMING AND DRYING TREND...MIN
TEMPS WARMING MORE SLOWLY THAN MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS 12-15K FEET MSL THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH OF KBNO-KRE0-
KTWF.  CLOUDS INCREASING IN OREGON FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO BROKEN-
OVERCAST WITH BASES 12-15K FEET AFTER 00Z...WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/
-TSRA WEST OF KONO-KREO. ALSO SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS
5-15 KTS IN OREGON...LIGHT EASTERLY IN IDAHO. WINDS ALOFT
SOUTHWESTERLY 20-25 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....LC/LC
AVIATION.....LC





000
FXUS65 KBOI 151611
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1011 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS MAINLY OVER
OREGON ALONG WITH POCKETS OF THIN LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT /ENOUGH TO OVERCOME MID LAYER
CAP/ LOOKS TO BE FROM AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NEAR NW CA/SW
OREGON THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT ONLY AREAS NEAR THE IMPULSE OR
HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF A THUNDERSTORM...SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NEAR
RECORD HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT
BOISE /AND KMUO/. COLD FRONT EXPECTED THURDSAY NIGHT WILL KNOW
DOWN ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR A DAY /FRIDAY/ TO SEASONAL VALUES. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO
VERY WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE 0/6Z GFS AND MORE OF A CUT-OFF
LOW /ECMWF/ OR TROUGH /GEFS/. MORE ON THAT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED CLOUDS 12-15K FEET MSL INCREASING AFTER
22Z FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SCATTERED-BROKEN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF KONO-KWMC AFT 22Z.  SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT.  TIL 18Z EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS 5-10 KTS IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF KBOI. VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 8 KTS ELSEWHERE.  WINDS BECOMING SWLY 8-15
KTS IN ERN OREGON AFTER 20Z.  WINDS ALOFT SWLY 20 KTS AT 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO EAST. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD OFF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WE ARE LEFT IN WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY
TUESDAY MORNING AIDING IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGH VALUES TUESDAY
AT KBOI AS THE RECORD IS ONLY 93F FOR THE DATE. EXPECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN IDAHO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WE BRIEFLY TAP INTO MONSOONAL
MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SECOND UPPER LOW
TRACKS INTO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY...DRAWING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE UP FROM THE DESERT SW. THE MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH A PRECEDING UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL FOCUS THE ACTIVITY OVER SW IDAHO ZONES. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS
IT MOVES INLAND ON FRIDAY CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE. AN UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...FAVORING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....LC
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....DG




000
FXUS65 KBOI 151611 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1011 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS MAINLY OVER
OREGON ALONG WITH POCKETS OF THIN LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT /ENOUGH TO OVERCOME MID LAYER
CAP/ LOOKS TO BE FROM AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NEAR NW CA/SW
OREGON THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT ONLY AREAS NEAR THE IMPULSE OR
HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF A THUNDERSTORM...SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NEAR
RECORD HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT
BOISE /AND KMUO/. COLD FRONT EXPECTED THURDSAY NIGHT WILL KNOCK
DOWN ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR A DAY /FRIDAY/ TO SEASONAL VALUES.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND DUE
TO VERY WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE 0/6Z GFS AND MORE OF A CUT-
OFF LOW /ECMWF/ OR TROUGH /GEFS/. MORE ON THAT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED CLOUDS 12-15K FEET MSL INCREASING AFTER
22Z FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SCATTERED-BROKEN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF KONO-KWMC AFT 22Z.  SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT.  TIL 18Z EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS 5-10 KTS IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF KBOI. VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 8 KTS ELSEWHERE.  WINDS BECOMING SWLY 8-15
KTS IN ERN OREGON AFTER 20Z.  WINDS ALOFT SWLY 20 KTS AT 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO EAST. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD OFF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WE ARE LEFT IN WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY
TUESDAY MORNING AIDING IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGH VALUES TUESDAY
AT KBOI AS THE RECORD IS ONLY 93F FOR THE DATE. EXPECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN IDAHO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WE BRIEFLY TAP INTO MONSOONAL
MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SECOND UPPER LOW
TRACKS INTO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY...DRAWING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE UP FROM THE DESERT SW. THE MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH A PRECEDING UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL FOCUS THE ACTIVITY OVER SW IDAHO ZONES. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS
IT MOVES INLAND ON FRIDAY CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE. AN UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...FAVORING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....LC
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....DG




000
FXUS65 KBOI 151611
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1011 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS MAINLY OVER
OREGON ALONG WITH POCKETS OF THIN LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT /ENOUGH TO OVERCOME MID LAYER
CAP/ LOOKS TO BE FROM AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NEAR NW CA/SW
OREGON THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT ONLY AREAS NEAR THE IMPULSE OR
HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF A THUNDERSTORM...SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NEAR
RECORD HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT
BOISE /AND KMUO/. COLD FRONT EXPECTED THURDSAY NIGHT WILL KNOW
DOWN ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR A DAY /FRIDAY/ TO SEASONAL VALUES. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO
VERY WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE 0/6Z GFS AND MORE OF A CUT-OFF
LOW /ECMWF/ OR TROUGH /GEFS/. MORE ON THAT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED CLOUDS 12-15K FEET MSL INCREASING AFTER
22Z FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SCATTERED-BROKEN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF KONO-KWMC AFT 22Z.  SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT.  TIL 18Z EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS 5-10 KTS IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF KBOI. VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 8 KTS ELSEWHERE.  WINDS BECOMING SWLY 8-15
KTS IN ERN OREGON AFTER 20Z.  WINDS ALOFT SWLY 20 KTS AT 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO EAST. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD OFF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WE ARE LEFT IN WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY
TUESDAY MORNING AIDING IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGH VALUES TUESDAY
AT KBOI AS THE RECORD IS ONLY 93F FOR THE DATE. EXPECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN IDAHO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WE BRIEFLY TAP INTO MONSOONAL
MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SECOND UPPER LOW
TRACKS INTO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY...DRAWING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE UP FROM THE DESERT SW. THE MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH A PRECEDING UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL FOCUS THE ACTIVITY OVER SW IDAHO ZONES. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS
IT MOVES INLAND ON FRIDAY CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE. AN UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...FAVORING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....LC
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....DG





000
FXUS65 KBOI 151611 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1011 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS MAINLY OVER
OREGON ALONG WITH POCKETS OF THIN LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT /ENOUGH TO OVERCOME MID LAYER
CAP/ LOOKS TO BE FROM AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NEAR NW CA/SW
OREGON THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT ONLY AREAS NEAR THE IMPULSE OR
HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF A THUNDERSTORM...SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NEAR
RECORD HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT
BOISE /AND KMUO/. COLD FRONT EXPECTED THURDSAY NIGHT WILL KNOCK
DOWN ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR A DAY /FRIDAY/ TO SEASONAL VALUES.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND DUE
TO VERY WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE 0/6Z GFS AND MORE OF A CUT-
OFF LOW /ECMWF/ OR TROUGH /GEFS/. MORE ON THAT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED CLOUDS 12-15K FEET MSL INCREASING AFTER
22Z FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SCATTERED-BROKEN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF KONO-KWMC AFT 22Z.  SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT.  TIL 18Z EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS 5-10 KTS IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF KBOI. VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 8 KTS ELSEWHERE.  WINDS BECOMING SWLY 8-15
KTS IN ERN OREGON AFTER 20Z.  WINDS ALOFT SWLY 20 KTS AT 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO EAST. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD OFF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WE ARE LEFT IN WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY
TUESDAY MORNING AIDING IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGH VALUES TUESDAY
AT KBOI AS THE RECORD IS ONLY 93F FOR THE DATE. EXPECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN IDAHO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WE BRIEFLY TAP INTO MONSOONAL
MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SECOND UPPER LOW
TRACKS INTO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY...DRAWING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE UP FROM THE DESERT SW. THE MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH A PRECEDING UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL FOCUS THE ACTIVITY OVER SW IDAHO ZONES. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS
IT MOVES INLAND ON FRIDAY CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE. AN UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...FAVORING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....LC
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....DG





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